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Sample records for sunspot cycle solar

  1. Evolution of sunspot properties during solar cycle 23

    CERN Document Server

    Watson, Fraser T; Marshall, Stephen; 10.1051/0004-6361/201116655

    2011-01-01

    The long term study of the Sun is necessary if we are to determine the evolution of sunspot properties and thereby inform modeling of the solar dynamo, particularly on scales of a solar cycle. We aim to determine a number of sunspot properties over cycle 23 using the uniform database provided by the SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager data. We focus in particular on their distribution on the solar disk, maximum magnetic field and umbral/penumbral areas. We investigate whether the secular decrease in sunspot maximum magnetic field reported in Kitt Peak data is present also in MDI data. We have used the Sunspot Tracking And Recognition Algorithm (STARA) to detect all sunspots present in the SOHO Michelson Doppler Imager continuum data giving us 30 084 separate detections. We record information on the sunspot locations, area and magnetic field properties and corresponding information for the umbral areas detected within the sunspots, and track them through their evolution. We find the total visible umbral area is 20-4...

  2. Predicting Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nipa J Bhatt; Rajmal Jain; Malini Aggarwal

    2009-03-01

    A few prediction methods have been developed based on the precursor technique which is found to be successful for forecasting the solar activity. Considering the geomagnetic activity aa indices during the descending phase of the preceding solar cycle as the precursor, we predict the maximum amplitude of annual mean sunspot number in cycle 24 to be 111 ± 21. This suggests that the maximum amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24 will be less than cycles 21–22. Further, we have estimated the annual mean geomagnetic activity aa index for the solar maximum year in cycle 24 to be 20.6 ± 4.7 and the average of the annual mean sunspot number during the descending phase of cycle 24 is estimated to be 48 ± 16.8.

  3. Sunspot Sizes and the Solar Cycle: Analysis Using Kodaikanal White-light Digitized Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Sudip; Banerjee, Dipankar

    2016-10-01

    Sizes of the sunspots vary widely during the progression of a solar cycle. Long-term variation studies of different sunspot sizes are key to better understand the underlying process of sunspot formation and their connection to the solar dynamo. The Kodaikanal white-light digitized archive provides daily sunspot observations for a period of 90 years (1921-2011). Using different size criteria on the detected individual sunspots, we have generated yearly averaged sunspot area time series for the full Sun as well as for the individual hemispheres. In this Letter, we have used the sunspot area values instead of sunspot numbers used in earlier studies. Analysis of these different time series show that different properties of the sunspot cycles depend on the sunspot sizes. The “odd-even rule” double peaks during the cycle maxima and the long-term periodicities in the area data are found to be present for specific sunspot sizes and are absent or not so prominent in other size ranges. Apart from that, we also find a range of periodicities in the asymmetry index that have a dependency on the sunspot sizes. These statistical differences in the different size ranges may indicate that a complex dynamo action is responsible for the generation and dynamics of sunspots with different sizes.

  4. Skin Cancer, Irradiation, and Sunspots: The Solar Cycle Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Valachovic

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Skin cancer is diagnosed in more than 2 million individuals annually in the United States. It is strongly associated with ultraviolet exposure, with melanoma risk doubling after five or more sunburns. Solar activity, characterized by features such as irradiance and sunspots, undergoes an 11-year solar cycle. This fingerprint frequency accounts for relatively small variation on Earth when compared to other uncorrelated time scales such as daily and seasonal cycles. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filters, applied to the solar cycle and skin cancer data, separate the components of different time scales to detect weaker long term signals and investigate the relationships between long term trends. Analyses of crosscorrelations reveal epidemiologically consistent latencies between variables which can then be used for regression analysis to calculate a coefficient of influence. This method reveals that strong numerical associations, with correlations >0.5, exist between these small but distinct long term trends in the solar cycle and skin cancer. This improves modeling skin cancer trends on long time scales despite the stronger variation in other time scales and the destructive presence of noise.

  5. Sunspot Sizes and The Solar Cycle: Analysis Using Kodaikanal White-light Digitized Data

    CERN Document Server

    Mandal, Sudip

    2016-01-01

    Sizes of the sunspots vary in a wide range during the progression of a solar cycle. Long-term variation study of different sunspot sizes are key to better understand the underlying process of sunspot formation and their connection to the solar dynamo. Kodaikanal white-light digitized archive provides daily sunspot observations for a period of 90 years (1921-2011). Using different size criteria on the detected individual sunspots, we have generated yearly averaged sunspot area time series for the full Sun as well as for the individual hemispheres. In this paper, we have used the sunspot area values instead of sunspot numbers used in earlier studies. Analysis of these different time series show that different properties of the sunspot cycles depend on the sunspot sizes. The `odd-even rule', double peaks during the cycle maxima and the long-term periodicities in the area data are found to be present for specific sunspot sizes and are absent or not so prominent in other size ranges. Apart from that, we also find ...

  6. Measurements of sunspot group tilt angles for solar cycles 19-24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Seda; Isik, Emre

    2016-07-01

    The tilt angle of a sunspot group is a critical quantity in the surface transport magnetic flux on global scales, playing a role in the solar dynamo. To investigate Joy's law for four cycles, we measured the tilt angles of sunspot groups for solar cycles 19-24. We have developed an IDL routine, which allows the user to interactively select and measure sunspot positions and areas on the solar disc, using the sunspot drawing database of Kandilli Observatory. The method is similar to that used by others in the literature, with the exception that sunspot groups were identified manually, which has improved the accuracy of the tilt angles. We present cycle averages of the tilt angle and compare the results with the existing data in the literature.

  7. Sunspot areas and tilt angles for solar cycles 7-10

    CERN Document Server

    Pavai, V Senthamizh; Dasi-Espuig, M; Krivova, N; Solanki, S

    2015-01-01

    Extending the knowledge about the properties of solar cycles into the past is essential for understanding the solar dynamo. This paper aims at estimating areas of sunspots observed by Schwabe in 1825-1867 and at calculating the tilt angles of sunspot groups. The sunspot sizes in Schwabe's drawings are not to scale and need to be converted into physical sunspot areas. We employed a statistical approach assuming that the area distribution of sunspots was the same in the 19th century as it was in the 20th century. Umbral areas for about 130,000 sunspots observed by Schwabe were obtained, as well as the tilt angles of sunspot groups assuming them to be bipolar. There is, of course, no polarity information in the observations. The annually averaged sunspot areas correlate reasonably with sunspot number. We derived an average tilt angle by attempting to exclude unipolar groups with a minimum separation of the two alleged polarities and an outlier rejection method which follows the evolution of each group and detect...

  8. Relationships between solar activity and climate change. [sunspot cycle effects on lower atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, W. O.

    1974-01-01

    Recurrent droughts are related to the double sunspot cycle. It is suggested that high solar activity generally increases meridional circulations and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter. This effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

  9. Prediction of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers for solar cycle 24

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The prediction for the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (hereafter SMSNs) of solar cycle 23, which was given with a similar cycle method proposed by us at the beginning time of cycle 23, is analyzed and verified in this paper. Using our predicted maximum SMSN and the ascending length for solar cycle 24, and as- suming their relative errors to be respectively 20% and ± 7 months, solar cycles 2, 4, 8, 11, 17, 20 and 23 are selected to be the similar cycles to cycle 24. The selected solar cycles are divided into two groups. The first group consists of all the selected cycles; while the second group consists of only cycles 11, 17, 20 and 23. Two SMSN time profiles then may be obtained, respectively, for the two similar cycle groups. No significant difference is found between the two predicted time profiles. Consid- ering the latest observed sunspot number so far available for cycle 23 and the pre- dictions for the minimum SMSN of cycle 24, a date calibration is done for the ob- tained time profiles, and thus, SMSNs for 127 months of cycle 24, from October 2007 to April 2018, are predicted.

  10. Prediction of the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers for solar cycle 24

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG JiaLong; MIAO Juan; LIU SiQing; GONG JianCun; ZHU CuiLian

    2008-01-01

    The prediction for the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (hereafter SMSNs) of solar cycle 23,which was given with a similar cycle method proposed by us at the beginning time of cycle 23,is analyzed and verified in this paper.Using our predicted maximum SMSN and the ascending length for solar cycle 24,and assuming their relative errors to be respectively 20% and ± 7 months,solar cycles 2,4,8,11,17,20 and 23 are selected to be the similar cycles to cycle 24.The selected solar cycles are divided into two groups.The first group consists of all the selected cycles; while the second group consists of only cycles 11,17,20 and 23.Two SMSN time profiles then may be obtained,respectively,for the two similar cycle groups.No significant difference is found between the two predicted time profiles.Considering the latest observed sunspot number so far available for cycle 23 and the predictions for the minimum SMSN of cycle 24,a date calibration is done for the obtained time profiles,and thus,SMSNs for 127 months of cycle 24,from October 2007 to April 2018,are predicted.

  11. Time Distributions of Large and Small Sunspot Groups Over Four Solar Cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Kilcik, A; Abramenko, V; Goode, P R; Ozguc, A; Rozelot, J P; Cao, W; 10.1088/0004-637X/731/1/30

    2011-01-01

    Here we analyze solar activity by focusing on time variations of the number of sunspot groups (SGs) as a function of their modified Zurich class. We analyzed data for solar cycles 2023 by using Rome (cycles 2021) and Learmonth Solar Observatory (cycles 2223) SG numbers. All SGs recorded during these time intervals were separated into two groups. The first group includes small SGs (A, B, C, H, and J classes by Zurich classification) and the second group consists of large SGs (D, E, F, and G classes). We then calculated small and large SG numbers from their daily mean numbers as observed on the solar disk during a given month. We report that the time variations of small and large SG numbers are asymmetric except for the solar cycle 22. In general large SG numbers appear to reach their maximum in the middle of the solar cycle (phase 0.450.5), while the international sunspot numbers and the small SG numbers generally peak much earlier (solar cycle phase 0.290.35). Moreover, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the facul...

  12. North-south asymmetry in small and large sunspot group activity and violation of even-odd solar cycle rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaraiah, J.

    2016-07-01

    According to Gnevyshev-Ohl (G-O) rule an odd-numbered cycle is stronger than its preceding even-numbered cycle. In the modern time the cycle pair (22, 23) violated this rule. By using the combined Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2015, and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) of sunspot groups during the period 1974-2015, here we have found that the solar cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule because, besides during cycle 23 a large deficiency of small sunspot groups in both the northern and the southern hemispheres, during cycle 22 a large abundance of small sunspot groups in the southern hemisphere. In the case of large and small sunspot groups the cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, suggesting the north-south asymmetry in solar activity has a significant contribution in the violation of G-O rule. The amplitude of solar cycle 24 is smaller than that of solar cycle 23. However, Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) rate in the rising phases of the cycles 23 and 24 are almost same (even slightly large in cycle 24). From both the SOON and the DPD sunspot group data here we have also found that on the average the ratio of the number (counts) of large sunspot groups to the number of small sunspot groups is larger in the rising phase of cycle 24 than that in the corresponding phase of cycle 23. We suggest this could be a potential reason for the aforesaid discrepancy in the CME rates during the rising phases of cycles 23 and 24. These results have significant implication on solar cycle mechanism.

  13. The solar corona through the sunspot cycle: preparing for the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasachoff, Jay M.; Seaton, Daniel; Rusin, Vojtech

    2017-01-01

    We discuss the evolution of the solar corona as seen at eclipses through the solar-activity cycle. In particular, we discuss the variations of the overall shape of the corona through the relative proportions of coronal streamers at equatorial and other latitudes vs. polar plumes. We analyze the two coronal mass ejections that we observed from Gabon at the 2013 total solar eclipse and how they apparently arose from polar crown filaments, one at each pole. We describe the change in the Ludendorff flattening index from solar maximum in one hemisphere as of the 2013 eclipse through the 2015 totality's corona we observed from Svalbard and, with diminishing sunspot and other magnetic activity in each hemisphere, through the 2016 corona we observed from Ternate, Indonesia.We discuss our observational plans for the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse from our main site in Salem, Oregon, and subsidiary sites in Madras, OR; Carbondale, IL; and elsewhere, our main site chosen largely by its favorable rating in cloudiness statistics. We discuss the overlapping role of simultaneous spacecraft observations, including those expected not only from NASA's SDO, ESA's SWAP on PROBA2, and NRL/NASA/ESA's LASCO on SOHO but also from the new SUVI (Solar Ultraviolet Imager) aboard NOAA's GOES-R satellite, scheduled as of this writing to have been launched by the time of this January 2017 meeting.Our research on the 2013 and 2015 total solar eclipses was supported by grants from the Committee for Research and Exploration of the National Geographic Society (NG-CRE). Our research on the 2017 total solar eclipse is supported by both NG-CRE and the Solar Terrestrial Program of the Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences Division of the National Science Foundation.

  14. Sensitivity of sunspot area to the tidal effect of planet Mercury during solar cycle 23

    CERN Document Server

    Edmonds, Ian

    2014-01-01

    We present evidence that the allowed periods of equatorially trapped Rossby wave modes on the Sun coincide closely with the 88 day period and 176 day sub harmonic period of Mercury and evidence of Rossby waves on the Sun at the same periods. To test the hypothesis that Rossby waves trigger the emergence of sunspots we use band pass filtering to obtain the 88 day period and 176 day period components of hemispherical sunspot area and compare the variations to the tidal height variation on the surface of the Sun due to Mercury. We find that the two components of hemispherical sunspot area occur in several episodes or activations of duration 2 to 6 years during each solar cycle. When the activations are discrete the variation of the 88 day and 176 day period components are phase coherent with the tidal height variation and a 180 degree phase change is evident between successive activations. We use this result to demonstrate that Rieger type quasi-periodicities in sunspot activity are, in most reported cases, peri...

  15. Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity I: On The Relationship Between The Sunspot Cycle And The Evolution Of Small Magnetic Features

    CERN Document Server

    McIntosh, Scott W; Leamon, Robert J; Davey, Alisdair R; Howe, Rachel; Krista, Larisza D; Malanushenko, Anna V; Cirtain, Jonathan W; Gurman, Joseph B; Thompson, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ~22-years. The principal variation of sunspots, an ~11-year variation in number, modulates the amount of magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our Star's radiative, particulate and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11-year sunspot variation is intrinsically tied it to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22-year magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints, and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer scale variability.

  16. Deciphering solar magnetic activity. I. On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Markel, Robert S.; Thompson, Michael J. [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); Leamon, Robert J.; Malanushenko, Anna V. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Davey, Alisdair R. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Howe, Rachel [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT (United Kingdom); Krista, Larisza D. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80205 (United States); Cirtain, Jonathan W. [Marshall Space Flight Center, Code ZP13, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Gurman, Joseph B.; Pesnell, William D., E-mail: mscott@ucar.edu [Solar Physics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ∼22 yr. The principal variation of sunspots, an ∼11 yr variation, modulates the amount of the magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our star's radiative, particulate, and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11 yr sunspot variation is intrinsically tied to the spatio-temporal overlap of the activity bands belonging to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle. Using a systematic analysis of ubiquitous coronal brightpoints and the magnetic scale on which they appear to form, we show that the landmarks of sunspot cycle 23 can be explained by considering the evolution and interaction of the overlapping activity bands of the longer-scale variability.

  17. North-south asymmetry in small and large sunspot group activity and violation of even-odd solar cycle rule

    CERN Document Server

    Javaraiah, J

    2016-01-01

    According to Gnevyshev-Ohl (G-O) rule an odd-numbered cycle is stronger than its preceding even-numbered cycle. In the modern time the cycle pair (22, 23) violated this rule. By using the combined Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) sunspot group data during the period 1874-2015, and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) of sunspot groups during the period 1974-2015, here we have found that the solar cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule because, besides during cycle 23 a large deficiency of small sunspot groups in both the northern and the southern hemispheres, during cycle 22 a large abundance of small sunspot groups in the southern hemisphere. In the case of large and small sunspot groups the cycle pair (22, 23) violated the G-O rule in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, suggesting the north-south asymmetry in solar activity has a significant contribution in the violation of G-O rule. The amplitude of solar cycle 24 is smaller than that...

  18. A new solar signal: Average maximum sunspot magnetic fields independent of activity cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Livingston, William

    2016-01-01

    Over the past five years, 2010-2015, we have observed, in the near infrared (IR), the maximum magnetic field strengths for 4145 sunspot umbrae. Herein we distinguish field strengths from field flux. (Most solar magnetographs measure flux). Maximum field strength in umbrae is co-spatial with the position of umbral minimum brightness (Norton and Gilman, 2004). We measure field strength by the Zeeman splitting of the Fe 15648.5 A spectral line. We show that in the IR no cycle dependence on average maximum field strength (2050 G) has been found +/- 20 Gauss. A similar analysis of 17,450 spots observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory reveal the same cycle independence +/- 0.18 G., or a variance of 0.01%. This is found not to change over the ongoing 2010-2015 minimum to maximum cycle. Conclude the average maximum umbral fields on the Sun are constant with time.

  19. DOES THE VARIATION OF THE SOLAR INTRA-NETWORK HORIZONTAL FIELD FOLLOW THE SUNSPOT CYCLE?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, C. L.; Wang, J. X., E-mail: cljin@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2015-07-01

    The ubiquitousness of the solar inter-network horizontal magnetic field has been revealed by space-borne observations with high spatial resolution and polarization sensitivity. However, no consensus has been achieved on the origin of the horizontal field among solar physicists. For a better understanding, in this study, we analyze the cyclic variation of the inter-network horizontal field by using the spectro-polarimeter observations provided by the Solar Optical Telescope on board Hinode, covering the interval from 2008 April to 2015 February. The method of wavelength integration is adopted to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio. It is found that from 2008 to 2015 the inter-network horizontal field does not vary when solar activity increases, and the average flux density of the inter-network horizontal field is 87 ± 1 G, In addition, the imbalance between horizontal and vertical fields also keeps invariant within the scope of deviation, i.e., 8.7 ± 0.5, from the solar minimum to maximum of solar cycle 24. This result confirms that the inter-network horizontal field is independent of the sunspot cycle. The revelation favors the idea that a local dynamo is creating and maintaining the solar inter-network horizontal field.

  20. Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity I: On The Relationship Between The Sunspot Cycle And The Evolution Of Small Magnetic Features

    OpenAIRE

    McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Leamon, Robert J.; Howe, Rachel; Krista, Larisza D.; Malanushenko, Anna V.; Cirtain, Jonathan W.; Gurman, Joseph B.; Thompson, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Sunspots are a canonical marker of the Sun's internal magnetic field which flips polarity every ~22-years. The principal variation of sunspots, an ~11-year variation in number, modulates the amount of magnetic field that pierces the solar surface and drives significant variations in our Star's radiative, particulate and eruptive output over that period. This paper presents observations from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and Solar Dynamics Observatory indicating that the 11-year sunsp...

  1. Sunspot Cycle 24: Smallest Cycle in 100 Years?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-11

    and H. B. Hathaway, D. H., R. M. Wilson, and E. J. Reichmann (1994), The shape of Snodgrass (1988), The extended solar activity cycle, Nature, 333...748, the sunspot cycle, Sol. Phys., 151, 177. doi:10.1038/333748a0. Hathaway, D. H., R. M. Wilson, and E. J. Reichmann (2002), Group sun- spot numbers

  2. Sunspot group tilt angles and the strength of the solar cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Dasi-Espuig, Maria; Krivova, Natasha A; Cameron, Robert H; Peñuela, Tania

    2010-01-01

    It is known that the tilt angles of active regions increase with their latitude (Joy's law). It has never been checked before, however, whether the average tilt angles change from one cycle to another. Flux transport models show the importance of tilt angles for the reversal and build up of magnetic flux at the poles which is, in turn, correlated with the strength of the next cycle. Here we analyse time series of tilt angle measurements and look for a possible relationship of the tilt angles with other solar cycle parameters, in order to glean information on the solar dynamo and to estimate their potential for predictions of solar activity. We employ tilt angle data from Mount Wilson and Kodaikanal observatories covering solar cycles 15 to 21. We analyse the latitudinal distribution of the tilt angles (Joy's law), their variation from cycle to cycle and their relationship to other solar cycle parameters, such as the strength, amplitude and length. The two main results are: 1. An anti-correlation between the m...

  3. Solar transition region above sunspots

    CERN Document Server

    Tian, H; Teriaca, L; Landi, E; Marsch, E

    2009-01-01

    We study the TR properties above sunspots and the surrounding plage regions, by analyzing several sunspot spectra obtained by SUMER in March 1999 and November 2006. We compare the SUMER spectra observed in the umbra, penumbra, plage, and sunspot plume regions. The Lyman line profiles averaged in each region are presented. For the sunspot observed in 2006, the electron densities, DEM, and filling factors of the TR plasma in the four regions are also investigated. The self-reversals of the Lyman line profiles are almost absent in umbral regions at different locations (heliocentric angle up to $49^\\circ$) on the solar disk. In the sunspot plume, the Lyman lines are also not reversed, whilst the lower Lyman line profiles observed in the plage region are obviously reversed. The TR densities of the umbra and plume are similar and one order of magnitude lower than those of the plage and penumbra. The DEM curve of the sunspot plume exhibits a peak centered around $\\log(T/\\rm{K})\\sim5.45$, which exceeds the DEM of oth...

  4. An Analysis of the Sunspot Groups and Flares of Solar Cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-07

    for compact interior. The classes AXX, BXO , BXI, CRO, HSX, HAX, HRX, and HHX have a negligibly small probability of producing an Hα flare. Sunspot...to DRO, HHX, CHO, CRI, and CRO in this study and to FAO, FAC, AXX, BXO , and HRX in Kildahl (1980). While there is good agreement between the two...simplest classes AXX, BXO and CRO accounted for a nearly 28% decrease in total sunspot contribution. Figure 5 indicates that these categories are

  5. Long Term Sunspot Cycle Phase Coherence with Periodic Phase Disruptions

    CERN Document Server

    Pease, Gerald E

    2016-01-01

    In 1965 Paul D. Jose published his discovery that both the motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system and periods comprised of eight Hale magnetic sunspot cycles with a mean period of ~22.375 years have a matching periodicity of ~179 years. We have investigated the implied link between solar barycentric torque cycles and sunspot cycles and have found that the unsigned solar torque values from 1610 to 2058 are consistently phase and magnitude coherent in ~179 year Jose Cycles. We are able to show that there is also a surprisingly high degree of sunspot cycle phase coherence for times of minima in addition to magnitude correlation of peaks between the nine Schwabe sunspot cycles of 1878 through 1976 (SC12 through SC20) and those of 1699 through 1797 (SC[-5] through SC4). We further identify subsequent subcycles of predominantly non-coherent sunspot cycle phase. In addition we have analyzed the empirical solar motion triggers of both sunspot cycle phase coherence and phase coherence disruptio...

  6. Skills, sunspots and cycles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busato, Francesco; Marchetti, Enrico

    This paper explores the ability of a class of one-sector,multi-input models to generate indeterminate equilibrium paths, andendogenous cycles, without relying on factors' hoarding. The modelpresents a novel theoretical economic mechanism that supportssunspot-driven expansions without requiring up...

  7. Investigation of the Relationship between Solar Flares and Sunspot Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eren, S.; Kilcik, A.

    2017-01-01

    We studied the relationship between X-Ray flare numbers (C, M, and, X class flares) and sunspot counts in four categories (Simple (A + B), Medium (C), Large (D + E + F), and End (H)). All data sets cover the whole Solar Cycle 23 and the ascending and maximum phases of Cycle 24 (1996-2014). Pearson correlation analysis method was used to investigate the degree of relationship between monthly solar flare numbers and sunspot counts observed in different sunspot categories. We found that the C, M, and X class flares have highest correlation with the large group sunspot counts, while the small category does not any meaningful correlation. Obtained correlation coefficients between large groups and C, M, and X class flare numbers are 0.79, 0.74, and 0.4, respectively. Thus, we conclude that the main sources of X-Ray solar flares are the complex/large sunspot groups.

  8. Solar Indices - Sunspot Numbers

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of indices related to solar activity contributed by a number of national and private solar observatories located worldwide. This...

  9. Spot cycle reconstruction: an empirical tool - Application to the sunspot cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, A R G; Avelino, P P; Campante, T L

    2015-01-01

    The increasing interest in understanding stellar magnetic activity cycles is a strong motivation for the development of parameterised starspot models which may be constrained observationally. In this work we develop an empirical tool for the stochastic reconstruction of sunspot cycles, using the average solar properties as a reference. The synthetic sunspot cycle is compared with the sunspot data extracted from the National Geophysical Data Center, in particular using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This tool yields synthetic spot group records, including date, area, latitude, longitude, rotation rate of the solar surface at the group's latitude, and an identification number. Comparison of the stochastic reconstructions with the daily sunspot records (from the National Geophysical Data Center) confirms that our empirical model is able to successfully reproduce the main properties of the solar sunspot cycle. As a by-product of this work, we show that the Gnevyshev-Waldmeier rule, which describes the spots' area-l...

  10. Normalization of sunspot cycles and eigen mode analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐文耀

    2002-01-01

    The smoothed monthly sunspot numbers of the previous 22 complete sunspot cycles are normalized in time domain, and then an eigen mode analysis is carried out to draw the principle factors (or components) in the cycles. The results show that the main characteristics of the solar cycles can be described fairly well by the first 5 eigen modes. The obtained eigen modes are used to predict the declining phase of cycle 23 on the basis of the data prior to its maximum. The prediction indicates that cycle 23 will last for 127 months to December 2006, with the minimum of 6.2.

  11. Comparison of sunspot properties in cycles 23 and 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei, Reza; Schmidt, Wolfgang; Beck, Christian

    Sunspots form by coalescence of small-scale magnetic elements and pores in magnetic flux emergence areas. By observing recently formed sunspots just after their initial growth and before substantial decay, one samples a magnetic signal which has been least disturbed by granulation. Properties of the emergence events have a direct impact on the results. Failed active regions, e.g. the ones which cannot form a sunspot, are a clear example: in several cases, they would harbor enough magnetic flux to form a small sunspot but fail to do so. Another way to evaluate secular variations of flux emergence events is to quantify long-term trends of sunspot properties. The 11-year solar magnetic activity cycle has been known for centuries. During this time the activity level changed dramatically from the Maunder minimum (1650-1700) to the Modern maximum in mid 20-th century. The extended minimum of the last solar cycle alerted solar physicist about possible long-term variation in the solar magnetic activity. While some argue that the Sun was unusually active in mid 20-th century, others find it unusually inactive now. This caused speculations whether the solar activity cycle is overlaid with a long-term decline that may lead to another grand minimum in the near future. Some extrapolations predicted that there will be no sunspots in the next cycle. Detailed observations of sunspot properties were performed only in the last few cycles. Such spectropolarimetric observations enable us to accurately derive the magnetic field strengths of spots and their physical properties. We present measurements of sunspot intensity, area, and magnetic field strength and compare the present cycle 24 with the previous one. We analyze a sample of about 400 sunspots observed from 1999 until 2014 with the Tenerife Infrared Polarimeter at the German Vacuum Tower Telescope as well as with the Facility Infrared Spectropolarimeter of the Dunn Solar Telescope of the NSO. The magnetic field strength is

  12. The sunspot cycle and ``auroral'' F layer irregularities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarons, J.; Kersley, L.; Rodger, A. S.

    The use of the word ``aurora'' for many different observations at high latitudes has limited the concepts involved; this is particularly true for F region irregularities. Observations setting the position of the auroral oval (Starkov and Fel'dshtein, 1970) were made using primarily the 555.7-nm green line, which is emitted predominantly at E layer heights. These observations have shown that the change in position of the auroral oval for low values of Kp as a function of sunspot cycle is of the order of 1° to 2° between sunspot maximum and sunspot minimum. However, irregularities in the F region show much larger solar cycle variations in the locations of the equatorward boundary, typically 10°. A review of scintillation data indicates that at a given auroral latitude, the scintillation activity increases with sunspot number. In addition, for a constant scintillation intensity, the equatorward boundary moves to lower latitudes as sunspot maximum is approached. We review existing spread F studies and show that for quiet geomagnetic conductions, there is lower occurrence during years of low sunspot numbers than during years of high sunspot numbers. However, the spread F index, related to Δ f/f0F2, is higher during years of low sunspot number than during years of high sunspot number. We demonstrate that this apparent dichotomy can be reconciled by using a new method of normalizing the spread F index by the maximum electron concentration of the F layer. We briefly discuss the possible explanations for the observed solar cycle variations of irregularity occurrence in terms of the absolute values and gradients of electron concentration and the E region conductivity.

  13. Prediction of Sunspot Cycles by Data Assimilation Method

    CERN Document Server

    Kitiashvili, I N

    2008-01-01

    Despite the known general properties of the solar cycles, a reliable the forecast of the 11-year sunspot number variations is still a problem. The difficulties are caused by the apparent chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers from cycle to cycle and by the influence of variations of turbulent dynamo processes, which are far from understanding. For predicting the solar cycle properties we make an initial attempt to use the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), a data assimilation method, which takes into account uncertainties of a dynamo model and measurements, and allows to estimate future observational data. We present the results of forecasting the solar cycles obtained by the EnKF method in application to a low-mode nonlinear dynamical system, modeling the solar alpha-Omega dynamo process with variable magnetic helicity. Calculations of the predictions for previous sunspot cycles show good agreement (with error 10%) with actual data. This forecast model predicts that the next sunspot cycle will be significant by...

  14. On the relation between activity-related frequency shifts and the sunspot distribution over the solar cycle 23

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, A R G; Avelino, P P; Chaplin, W J; Campante, T L

    2016-01-01

    The activity-related variations in the solar acoustic frequencies have been known for 30 years. However, the importance of the different contributions is still not well established. With this in mind, we developed an empirical model to estimate the spot-induced frequency shifts, which takes into account the sunspot properties, such as area and latitude. The comparison between the model frequency shifts obtained from the daily sunspot records and those observed suggests that the contribution from a stochastic component to the total frequency shifts is about 30%. The remaining 70% is related to a global, long-term variation. We also propose a new observable to investigate the short- and mid-term variations of the frequency shifts, which is insensitive to the long-term variations contained in the data. On the shortest time scales the variations in the frequency shifts are strongly correlated with the variations in the total area covered by sunspots. However, a significant loss of correlation is still found, whic...

  15. Properties of sunspot umbrae observed in Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Kiess, Christoph; Schmidt, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed the size, intensity, and magnetic field strength of sunspot umbrae to compare the present cycle 24 with the previous one. We used data of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory and selected all sunspots between May 2010 and October 2012, using one image per day. We created two subsets of this data with a manual tracking algorithm, both without duplication. One is containing each sunspot (910 umbrae within 488 spots) and was used to analyze the distribution of umbral areas, selected with an automated thresholding method. The other one contains 205 fully evolved sunspots. We find nonlinear relations between umbral minimum intensity and size and between maximum magnetic field strength and size. The field strength scales linear with the intensity and the umbral size scales roughly linear with the total magnetic flux, while the size and field strength level off with stronger flux. When separated in hemisphere and averaged temporally, the southern umbrae show a tempo...

  16. The Solar Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Hathaway, David H

    2015-01-01

    The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24.

  17. The Solar Cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, David H

    The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active latitudes, hemispheric asymmetries, and active longitudes. Cycle-to-cycle variability includes the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl (even-odd) Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double-peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle and a closer look at cycles 23 and 24.

  18. Generation of a Solar Cycle of Sunspot Metadata Using the AIA Event Detection Framework - A Test of the System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, G. L.; Zharkov, S.

    2008-12-01

    The soon-to-be-launched Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will generate roughly 2 TB of image data per day, far more than previous solar missions. Because of the difficulty of widely distributing this enormous volume of data and in order to maximize discovery and scientific return, a sophisticated automated metadata extraction system is being developed at Stanford University and Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory in Palo Alto, CA. A key component in this system is the Event Detection System, which will supervise the execution of a set of feature and event extraction algorithms running in parallel, in real time, on all images recorded by the four telescopes of the key imaging instrument, the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The system will run on a beowulf cluster of 160 processors. As a test of the new system, we will run feature extraction software developed under the European Grid of Solar Observatories (EGSO) program to extract sunspot metadata from the 12 year SOHO MDI mission archive of full disk continuum and magnetogram images and also from the TRACE high resolution image archive. Although the main goal will be to test the performance of the production line framework, the resulting database will have applications for both research and space weather prediction. We examine some of these applications and compare the databases generated with others currently available.

  19. Nature's third cycle a story of sunspots

    CERN Document Server

    Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

    2015-01-01

    The cycle of day and night and the cycle of seasons are two familiar natural cycles around which many human activities are organized. But is there a third natural cycle of importance for us humans? On 13 March 1989, six million people in Canada went without electricity for many hours: a large explosion on the sun was discovered as the cause of this blackout. Such explosions occur above sunspots, dark features on the surface of the Sun that have been observed through telescopes since the time of Galileo. The number of sunspots has been found to wax and wane over a period of 11 years. Although this cycle was discovered less than two centuries ago, it is becoming increasingly important for us as human society becomes more dependent on technology. For nearly a century after its discovery, the cause of the sunspot cycle remained completely shrouded in mystery. The 1908 discovery of strong magnetic fields in sunspots made it clear that the 11-year cycle is the magnetic cycle of the sun. It is only during the last ...

  20. The lost sunspot cycle: New support from Be10 measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Karoff, C; Knudsen, M F; Olsen, J; Fogtmann-Schulz, A

    2014-01-01

    It has been suggested that the deficit in the number of spots on the surface of the Sun between 1790 and 1830, known as the Dalton minimum, contained an extra cycle that was not identified in the original sunspot record by Wolf. Though this cycle would be shorter and weaker than the average solar cycle, it would shift the magnetic parity of the solar magnetic field of the earlier cycles. This extra cycle is sometimes referred to as the 'lost solar cycle' or 'cycle 4b'. Here we reanalyse Be10 measurements with annual resolution from the NGRIP ice core in Greenland in order to investigate if the hypothesis regarding a lost sunspot cycle is supported by these measurements. Specifically, we make use of the fact that the Galactic cosmic rays, responsible for forming Be10 in the Earth's atmosphere, are affected differently by the open solar magnetic field during even and odd solar cycles. This fact enables us to evaluate if the numbering of cycles earlier than cycle 5 is correct. For the evaluation, we use Bayesian...

  1. On the Relationship between Solar Wind Speed, Earthward-Directed Coronal Mass Ejections, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Sunspot Cycle Using 12-Month Moving Averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

    2008-01-01

    For 1996 .2006 (cycle 23), 12-month moving averages of the aa geomagnetic index strongly correlate (r = 0.92) with 12-month moving averages of solar wind speed, and 12-month moving averages of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (halo and partial halo events) strongly correlate (r = 0.87) with 12-month moving averages of sunspot number. In particular, the minimum (15.8, September/October 1997) and maximum (38.0, August 2003) values of the aa geomagnetic index occur simultaneously with the minimum (376 km/s) and maximum (547 km/s) solar wind speeds, both being strongly correlated with the following recurrent component (due to high-speed streams). The large peak of aa geomagnetic activity in cycle 23, the largest on record, spans the interval late 2002 to mid 2004 and is associated with a decreased number of halo and partial halo CMEs, whereas the smaller secondary peak of early 2005 seems to be associated with a slight rebound in the number of halo and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed aaM during the declining portion of cycle 23, RM for cycle 24 is predicted to be larger than average, being about 168+/-60 (the 90% prediction interval), whereas based on the expected aam for cycle 24 (greater than or equal to 14.6), RM for cycle 24 should measure greater than or equal to 118+/-30, yielding an overlap of about 128+/-20.

  2. The solar magnetic field since 1700: I. Characteristics of sunspot group emergence and reconstruction of the butterfly diagram

    CERN Document Server

    Jiang, Jie; Schmitt, Dieter; Schuessler, Manfred

    2011-01-01

    We use the historic record of sunspot groups compiled by the Royal Greenwich Observatory together with the sunspot number to derive the statistical properties of sunspot group emergence in dependence of cycle phase and strength. In particular we discuss the latitude, longitude, area and tilt angle of sunspot groups as functions of the cycle strength and of time during the solar cycle. Using these empirical characteristics the time-latitude diagram of sunspot group emergence (butterfly diagram) is reconstructed from 1700 onward on the basis of the Wolf and group sunspot numbers. This reconstruction will be useful in studies of the long-term evolution of the Sun's magnetic field.

  3. Deciphering solar turbulence from sunspots records

    CERN Document Server

    Plunian, Franck; Stepanov, Rodion

    2009-01-01

    It is generally believed that sunspots are the emergent part of magnetic flux tubes in the solar interior. These tubes are created at the base of the convection zone and rise to the surface due to their magnetic buoyancy. The motion of plasma in the convection zone being highly turbulent, the surface manifestation of sunspots may retain the signature of this turbulence, including its intermittency. From direct observations of sunspots, and indirect observations of the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes $^{14}$C in tree rings or $^{10}$Be in polar ice, power spectral densities in frequency are plotted. Two different frequency scalings emerge, depending on whether the Sun is quiescent or active. %magnetic activity is maximum or minimum. From direct observations we can also calculate scaling exponents. These testify to a strong intermittency, comparable with that observed in the solar wind.

  4. Deciphering solar turbulence from sunspots records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plunian, F.; Sarson, G. R.; Stepanov, R.

    2009-11-01

    It is generally believed that sunspots are the emergent part of magnetic flux tubes in the solar interior. These tubes are created at the base of the convection zone and rise to the surface due to their magnetic buoyancy. The motion of plasma in the convection zone being highly turbulent, the surface manifestation of sunspots may retain the signature of this turbulence, including its intermittency. From direct observations of sunspots, and indirect observations of the concentration of cosmogenic isotopes 14C in tree rings or 10Be in polar ice, power spectral densities in frequency are plotted. Two different frequency scalings emerge, depending on whether the Sun is quiescent or active. From direct observations we can also calculate scaling exponents. These testify to a strong intermittency, comparable with that observed in the solar wind.

  5. Phase analysis of sunspot group numbers on both solar hemispheres

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lin-Hua Deng; Zhong-Quan Qu; Xiao-Li Yan; Kai-Rang Wang

    2013-01-01

    Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres.It is found that (1) the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere begin two months earlier than those in the southern one,which should lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; (2) the Schwabe cycle length for the monthly sunspot group numbers in the two hemispheres obviously differs from each other,and the mean Schwabe cycle length of the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere is slightly larger than that in the southern one; (3) the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere precede those in the southern hemisphere during the years of about 1874-1927,after which,the southern hemisphere leads the northern hemisphere in the years 1928-1964,and then the northern hemisphere leads in time till the present.

  6. Evidence for low dimensional chaos in sunspot cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letellier, C.; Aguirre, L. A.; Maquet, J.; Gilmore, R.

    2006-04-01

    Sunspot cycles are widely used for investigating solar activity. In 1953 Bracewell argued that it is sometimes desirable to introduce the inversion of the magnetic field polarity, and that can be done with a sign change at the beginning of each cycle. It will be shown in this paper that, for topological reasons, this so-called Bracewell index is inappropriate and that the symmetry must be introduced in a more rigorous way by a coordinate transformation. The resulting symmetric dynamics is then favourably compared with a symmetrized phase portrait reconstructed from the z-variable of the Rössler system. Such a link with this latter variable - which is known to be a poor observable of the underlying dynamics - could explain the general difficulty encountered in finding evidence of low-dimensional dynamics in sunspot data.

  7. An alternative measure of solar activity from detailed sunspot datasets

    CERN Document Server

    Muraközy, Judit; Ludmány, András

    2016-01-01

    The sunspot number is analyzed by using detailed sunspot data, including aspects of observability, sunspot sizes, and proper identification of sunspot groups as discrete entities of the solar activity. The tests show that besides the subjective factors there are also objective causes of the ambiguities in the series of sunspot numbers. To introduce an alternative activity measure the physical meaning of the sunspot number has to be reconsidered. It contains two components whose numbers are governed by different physical mechanisms, this is one source of the ambiguity. This article suggests an activity index, which is the amount of emerged magnetic flux. The only long-term proxy measure is the detailed sunspot area dataset with proper calibration to the magnetic flux amount. The Debrecen sunspot databases provide an appropriate source for the establishment of the suggested activity index.

  8. Solar small-scale dynamo and polarity of sunspot groups

    CERN Document Server

    Sokoloff, D; Abramenko, V

    2015-01-01

    In order to clarify a possible role of small-scale dynamo in formation of solar magnetic field, we suggest an observational test for small-scale dynamo action based on statistics of anti-Hale sunspot groups. As we have shown, according to theoretical expectations the small-scale dynamo action has to provide a population of sunspot groups which do not follow the Hale polarity law, and the density of such groups on the time-latitude diagram is expected to be independent on the phase of the solar cycle. Correspondingly, a percentage of the anti-Hale groups is expected to reach its maximum values during solar minima. For several solar cycles, we considered statistics of anti-Hale groups obtained by several scientific teams, including ours, to find that the percentage of anti-Hale groups becomes indeed maximal during a solar minimum. Our interpretation is that this fact may be explained by the small-scale dynamo action inside the solar convective zone.

  9. Solar small-scale dynamo and polarity of sunspot groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokoloff, D.; Khlystova, A.; Abramenko, V.

    2015-08-01

    In order to clarify a possible role of small-scale dynamo in formation of solar magnetic field, we suggest an observational test for small-scale dynamo action based on statistics of anti-Hale sunspot groups. As we have shown, according to theoretical expectations the small-scale dynamo action has to provide a population of sunspot groups which do not follow the Hale polarity law, and the density of such groups on the time-latitude diagram is expected to be independent on the phase of the solar cycle. Correspondingly, a percentage of the anti-Hale groups is expected to reach its maximum values during solar minima. For several solar cycles, we considered statistics of anti-Hale groups obtained by several scientific teams, including ours, to find that the percentage of anti-Hale groups becomes indeed maximal during a solar minimum. Our interpretation is that this fact may be explained by the small-scale dynamo action inside the solar convective zone.

  10. The unusual minimum of sunspot cycle 23 a consequence of Sun's meridional plasma flow variations

    CERN Document Server

    Nandy, Dibyendu; Martens, Petrus C H; 10.1038/nature09786

    2013-01-01

    Direct observations over the past four centuries show that the number of sunspots observed on the Sun's surface vary periodically, going through successive maxima and minima. Following sunspot cycle 23, the Sun went into a prolonged minimum characterized by a very weak polar magnetic field and an unusually large number of days without sunspots. Sunspots are strongly magnetized regions and are generated by a dynamo mechanism which recreates the solar polar field mediated via plasma flows. Here we report results from kinematic dynamo simulations which demonstrate that a fast meridional flow in the early half of a cycle, followed by a slower flow in the latter half, reproduces both the characteristics of the minimum of sunspot cycle 23 - a large number of spotless days and a relatively weak polar field. Our model predicts that, in general, very deep minima are associated with weak polar fields. Sunspots govern the solar radiative energy and radio flux, and in conjunction with the polar field, modulate the solar ...

  11. The long sunspot cycle 23 predicts a significant temperature decrease in cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Solheim, Jan-Erik; Humlum, Ole

    2012-01-01

    Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 "C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25-56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63-72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solar signal.

  12. Rapid Sunspot Displacement Associated with Solar Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang; Deng, N.; Wang, H.

    2010-05-01

    Many observational and modeling studies of solar eruptions merely treat photosphere as the lower boundary and assume no significant changes of magnetic fields anchoring there to occur during flares/CMEs. With increasing evidence of photospheric magnetic fields variations resulting from energy release in the upper atmosphere, Hudson, Fisher and Welsch (2008, ASP, 383, 221) proposed that the photosphere and even solar interior would respond in a back-reaction process to the coronal magnetic field restructuring. Inspired by this concept, we analyzed white-light images obtained with TRACE and report here rapid and permanent perturbation in the position of delta spot umbrae associated with five X-class flares. Our main results are the following: (1) The centroids of umbrae with opposite magnetic polarities undergo relative as well as overall displacement on the order of 1E3 km after flares/CMEs. (2) The estimated total kinetic energy associated with these motions (Ek) is on the order of 1E29 ergs and appears to correlate with the 6 mHZ seismic energy (Es) derived by the Monash group. (3) There appears correlation between both the Ek and Es corresponding to the velocity of CMEs. We suggest that: (1) sunspot displacement provides a direct observational evidence of the photospheric back-reaction and could potentially serve as an alternative excitation mechanism of seismic waves; (2) These could provide rational support to the back-reaction mechanism in the sense that its magnitude might be related to how violent the coronal magnetic field is disrupted. For selected events with good multiwavelength coverage, we also analyze in detail spatial as well as temporal relationship among the sunspot displacement, magnetic field changes, seismic sources, hard X-ray emissions, and overall flaring condition. This work is supported by NSF grants ATM 08-19662 and ATM 07-45744, and NASA grants NNX 08AQ90G, NNX 07AH78G, and NNX 08AQ32G.

  13. On the contribution of sunspots to the observed frequency shifts of solar acoustic modes

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, A R G; Avelino, P P; Chaplin, W J; Campante, T L

    2016-01-01

    Activity-related variations in the solar oscillation properties have been known for 30 years. However, the relative importance of the different contributions to the observed variations is not yet fully understood. Our goal is to estimate the relative contribution from sunspots to the observed activity-related variations in the frequencies of the acoustic modes. We use a variational principle to relate the phase differences induced by sunspots on the acoustic waves to the corresponding changes in the frequencies of the global acoustic oscillations. From the sunspot properties (area and latitude as a function of time), we are able to estimate the spot-induced frequency shifts. These are then combined with a smooth frequency shift component, associated with long-term solar-cycle variations, and the results compared with the frequency shifts derived from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) data. The result of this comparison is consistent with a sunspot contribution to the observed frequency shifts of rou...

  14. The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, G.; Krivova, N.; Wu, C. J.; Lean, J.

    2016-11-01

    Reliable historical records of the total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy that is incident upon Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries that is due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate the effects that the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series may have on model reconstructions of the TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on timescales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar-activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable reconstructing historical TSI. Revisions of the sunspot-number record therefore affect the magnitude and temporal structure of TSI variability on centennial timescales according to the model reconstruction methods that are employed. We estimate the effects of the new SILSO record on two widely used TSI reconstructions, namely the NRLTSI2 and the SATIRE models. We find that the SILSO record has little effect on either model after 1885, but leads to solar-cycle fluctuations with greater amplitude in the TSI reconstructions prior. This suggests that many eighteenth- and nineteenth-century cycles could be similar in amplitude to those of the current Modern Maximum. TSI records based on the revised sunspot data do not suggest a significant change in Maunder Minimum TSI values, and from comparing this era to the present, we find only very small potential differences in the estimated solar contributions to the climate with this new sunspot record.

  15. Hindcast and forecast of grand solar minina and maxima using a three-frequency dynamo model based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies modulating the 11-year sunspot cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2016-04-01

    The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The two side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle can be associated to a quasi-11-year sunspot solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. These frequencies and other oscillations appear once the model is non-linearly processed. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900- 1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with

  16. Relationship between geomagnetic classes’ activity phases and their occurrence during the sunspot cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Ouattara

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Four well known geomagnetic classes of activity such as quiet days activity, fluctuating activity, recurrent activity
    and shock activity time occurrences have been determined not only by using time profile of sunspot number
    Rz but also by using aa index values.
    We show that recurrent wind stream activity and fluctuating activity occur in opposite phase and slow solar wind
    activity during minimum phase and shock activity at the maximum phase.
    It emerges from this study that fluctuating activity precedes the sunspot cycle by π/2 and the latter also precedes
    recurrent activity by π/2. Thus in the majority the activities do not happen at random; the sunspot cycle starts
    with quiet days activity, continues with fluctuating activity and during its maximum phase arrives shock activity.
    The descending phase is characterized by the manifestation of recurrent wind stream activity.

  17. The irregularities of the sunspot cycle and their theoretical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

    2013-01-01

    The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most promi- nent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we introduce the flux transport dynamo model, the currently most successful theoretical model for explaining the 11-year sunspot cycle. Then we analyze the respective roles of nonlinearities and random fluctuations in creating the irregularities. We also discuss how it has recently been realized that the fluctuations in meridional circula- tion also can be a source of irregularities. We end by pointing out that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation and fluctuations in meridional circulation together can explain the occurrences of grand minima.

  18. Activity Cycle of Solar Filaments

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K. J. Li; Q. X. Li; P. X. Gao; J. Mu; H. D. Chen; T. W. Su

    2007-06-01

    Long-term variation in the distribution of the solar filaments observed at the Observatorie de Paris, Section de Meudon from March 1919 to December 1989 is presented to compare with sunspot cycle and to study the periodicity in the filament activity, namely the periods of the coronal activity with the Morlet wavelet used. It is inferred that the activity cycle of solar filaments should have the same cycle length as sunspot cycle, but the cycle behavior of solar filaments is globally similar in profile with, but different in detail from, that of sunspot cycles. The amplitude of solar magnetic activity should not keep in phase with the complexity of solar magnetic activity. The possible periods in the filament activity are about 10.44 and 19.20 years. The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 10.44 years is statistically significant during the whole consideration time. The wavelet local power spectrum of the period 19.20 years is under the 95% confidence spectrum during the whole consideration time, but over the mean red-noise spectrum of = 0.72 before approximate Carrington rotation number 1500, and after that the filament activity does not statistically show the period. Wavelet reconstruction indicates that the early data of the filament archive (in and before cycle 16) are more noiseful than the later (in and after cycle 17).

  19. Egeson's (George's transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sampson

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In the late 19th century, Charles Egeson, a map compiler at the Sydney Observatory, carried out some of the earliest research on climatic cycles, linking them to about 33-year cycles in solar activity, and predicted that a devastating drought would strike Australia at the turn of the 20th century. Eduard Brückner and William J. S. Lockyer, who, like Egeson, found similar cycles, with notable exceptions, are also, like the map compiler, mostly forgotten. But the transtridecadal cycles are important in human physiology, economics and other affairs and are particularly pertinent to ongoing discusions of climate change. Egeson's publication of daily weather reports preceded those officially recorded. Their publication led to clashes with his superiors and his personal life was marked by run-ins with the law and, possibly, an implied, but not proven, confinement in an insane asylum and premature death. We here track what little is known of Egeson's life and of his bucking of the conventional scientific wisdom of his time with tragic results.

  20. On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1990-01-01

    Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the 'average rate of growth' in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, it is inferred that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 + or - 30 or 185 + or - 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10-21 from the two fits.

  1. Automatic Recognition of Sunspots in HSOS Full-Disk Solar Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Cui; Lin, GangHua; Deng, YuanYong; Yang, Xiao

    2016-05-01

    A procedure is introduced to recognise sunspots automatically in solar full-disk photosphere images obtained from Huairou Solar Observing Station, National Astronomical Observatories of China. The images are first pre-processed through Gaussian algorithm. Sunspots are then recognised by the morphological Bot-hat operation and Otsu threshold. Wrong selection of sunspots is eliminated by a criterion of sunspot properties. Besides, in order to calculate the sunspots areas and the solar centre, the solar limb is extracted by a procedure using morphological closing and erosion operations and setting an adaptive threshold. Results of sunspot recognition reveal that the number of the sunspots detected by our procedure has a quite good agreement with the manual method. The sunspot recognition rate is 95% and error rate is 1.2%. The sunspot areas calculated by our method have high correlation (95%) with the area data from the United States Air Force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA).

  2. Automatic Recognition of Sunspots in HSOS Full-Disk Solar Images

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Cui; Deng, YuanYong; Yang, Xiao

    2016-01-01

    A procedure is introduced to recognise sunspots automatically in solar full-disk photosphere images obtained from Huairou Solar Observing Station, National Astronomical Observatories of China. The images are first pre-processed through Gaussian algorithm. Sunspots are then recognised by the morphological Bot-hat operation and Otsu threshold. Wrong selection of sunspots is eliminated by a criterion of sunspot properties. Besides, in order to calculate the sunspots areas and the solar centre, the solar limb is extracted by a procedure using morphological closing and erosion operations and setting an adaptive threshold. Results of sunspot recognition reveal that the number of the sunspots detected by our procedure has a quite good agreement with the manual method. The sunspot recognition rate is 95% and error rate is 1.2%. The sunspot areas calculated by our method have high correlation (95%) with the area data from USAF/NOAA.

  3. Cycle dependence of the longitudinal-latitudinal sunspot motion correlations

    CERN Document Server

    Muraközy, J; 10.1051/0004-6361:20078456

    2010-01-01

    aims: It is well known that the azimuthal and meridional shifts of sunspots are correlated and that the correlation exhibits a latitudinal distribution, which is expected due to the Coriolis effect. We study the temporal behaviour of this latitudinal distribution. methods: We analyze the daily positions of sunspot groups, provided by the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data and the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results and correlation values, which were mapped in 5 deg latitudinal bins. The latitudinal distributions were examined for each year. results: We derive a sunspot-motion correlation that exhibits a Coriolis-type latitudinal distribution on long timescales, which are typical for the yearly distributions; at cycle maximum, however, unexpected distortions can occur. conclusions: The causes of the weakening of the Coriolis-pattern remain unclear. Possible relations of the phenomenon to the Gnevyshev-gap, the polarity reversal of the main magnetic field, and some mid-period fluctuations are discussed.

  4. Detection of Emerging Sunspot Regions in the Solar Interior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilonidis, Stathis; Zhao, Junwei; Kosovichev, Alexander

    2011-08-01

    Sunspots are regions where strong magnetic fields emerge from the solar interior and where major eruptive events occur. These energetic events can cause power outages, interrupt telecommunication and navigation services, and pose hazards to astronauts. We detected subsurface signatures of emerging sunspot regions before they appeared on the solar disc. Strong acoustic travel-time anomalies of an order of 12 to 16 seconds were detected as deep as 65,000 kilometers. These anomalies were associated with magnetic structures that emerged with an average speed of 0.3 to 0.6 kilometer per second and caused high peaks in the photospheric magnetic flux rate 1 to 2 days after the detection of the anomalies. Thus, synoptic imaging of subsurface magnetic activity may allow anticipation of large sunspot regions before they become visible, improving space weather forecast.

  5. Is solar neutrino capture rate correlated with sunspot number?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahcall, J. N.; Field, G. B.; Press, W. H.

    1987-01-01

    The statistical significance of the apparent correlation between sunspots and the observed neutrino rate is quantified. It is shown that the correlation depends almost entirely upon four low neutrino capture rates near the beginning of 1980. A calculation based on standard electroweak theory and neutrino production processes demonstrates that a correlation, if real, would be extremely puzzling on energetic grounds alone. It is concluded that measurements with the Cl-37 detector during the next sunspot cycle will be needed to show that there is a physical correlation, since the existing data are not statistically significant at a definitive level.

  6. Bimodal Distribution of Area-Weighted Latitude of Sunspots And Solar North-South Asymmetry

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Heon-Young

    2011-01-01

    We study the latitudinal distribution of sunspots observed from 1874 to 2009 using the center-of-latitude (COL). We calculate COL by taking the area-weighted mean latitude of sunspots for each calendar month. We then form the latitudinal distribution of COL for the sunspots appearing in the northern and southern hemispheres separately, and in both hemispheres with unsigned and signed latitudes, respectively. We repeat the analysis with subsets which are divided based on the criterion of which hemisphere is dominant for a given solar cycle. Our primary findings are as follows: (1) COL is not monotonically decreasing with time in each cycle. Small humps can be seen (or short plateaus) around every solar maxima. (2) The distribution of COL resulting from each hemisphere is bimodal, which can well be represented by the double Gaussian function. (3) As far as the primary component of the double Gaussian function is concerned, for a given data subset, the distributions due to the sunspots appearing in two different...

  7. Recurrence plots of sunspots, solar flux and irradiance

    CERN Document Server

    Sparavigna, Amelia

    2008-01-01

    The paper shows the recurrence and cross recurrence plots of three time series, concerning data of the solar activity. The data are the sunspot number and the values of solar radio flux at 10.7 cm and of solar total irradiance, which are known as highly correlated. To compare the series, the radio flux and irradiance values are monthly averaged. Recurrence plots display the oscillating behaviour with remarkable features. Moreover, cross recurrence plots help in identifying time lags between the sunspot number maximum and the maximum of radio or irradiance signals, in circumstances where the data values are highly dispersed. Image processing is useful too, in enhancing the monitoring. An interesting behaviour is displayed by cross recurrence plots of irradiance, which are not symmetric with respect to the line of identity.

  8. A mechanism for the dependence of sunspot group tilt angles on cycle strength

    CERN Document Server

    Işık, Emre

    2015-01-01

    The average tilt angle of sunspot groups emerging throughout the solar cycle determines the net magnetic flux crossing the equator, which is correlated with the strength of the subsequent cycle. I suggest that a deep-seated, non-local process can account for the observed cycle-dependent changes in the average tilt angle. Motivated by helioseismic observations indicating cycle-scale variations in the sound speed near the base of the convection zone, I determined the effect of a thermally perturbed overshoot region on the stability of flux tubes and on the tilt angles of emerging flux loops. I found that 5-20 K of cooling is sufficient for emerging flux loops to reproduce the reported amplitude of cycle-averaged tilt angle variations, suggesting that it is a plausible effect responsible for the nonlinearity of the solar activity cycle.

  9. The origin of the solar magnetic cycle

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Arnab Rai Choudhuri

    2011-07-01

    After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its success in modelling both the solar cycle and its departures from strictly periodic behaviour.

  10. A deep-seated mechanism for cycle-dependent sunspot group tilt angles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Emre

    2016-07-01

    The cycle-averaged tilt angle of sunspot groups is an important quantity in determining the magnetic flux diffusing across the equator, which is highly correlated with the strength of the next cycle. This quantity has recently been reported to be anti-correlated with the strength of the solar cycle. I suggest that a deep-seated thermodynamic cycle can be responsible for the observed correlation. Motivated by helioseismic indications, I calculate the effect of cooling of the convective overshoot region on the stability and dynamics of thin, unstable flux tubes. I find that only 5-20 K of cooling in the layer can explain the observed range of tilt angle fluctuations among different cycles. This mechanism can play a role in the nonlinear saturation and amplitude fluctuations of the solar dynamo.

  11. A solar eruption driven by rapid sunspot rotation

    CERN Document Server

    Ruan, Guiping; Wang, Shuo; Zhang, Hongqi; Li, Gang; Jing, Ju; Su, Jiangtao; Li, Xing; Xu, Haiqing; Du, Guohui; Wang, Haimin

    2014-01-01

    We present the observation of a major solar eruption that is associated with fast sunspot rotation. The event includes a sigmoidal filament eruption, a coronal mass ejection, and a GOES X2.1 flare from NOAA active region 11283. The filament and some overlying arcades were partially rooted in a sunspot. The sunspot rotated at $\\sim$10$^\\circ$ per hour rate during a period of 6 hours prior to the eruption. In this period, the filament was found to rise gradually along with the sunspot rotation. Based on the HMI observation, for an area along the polarity inversion line underneath the filament, we found gradual pre-eruption decreases of both the mean strength of the photospheric horizontal field ($B_h$) and the mean inclination angle between the vector magnetic field and the local radial (or vertical) direction. These observations are consistent with the pre-eruption gradual rising of the filament-associated magnetic structure. In addition, according to the Non-Linear Force-Free-Field reconstruction of the coron...

  12. Can Asymmetry of Solar Activity be Extended into Extended Cycle?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    With the use of the Royal Greenwich Observatory data set of sunspot groups, an attempt is made to examine the north-south asymmetry of solar activity in the "extended" solar cycles. It is inferred that the asymmetry established for individual solar cycles does not extend to the "extended" cycles.

  13. Solar Cycle 24 and the Solar Dynamo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. D.; Schatten, K.

    2007-01-01

    We will discuss the polar field precursor method for solar activity prediction, which predicts cycle 24 will be significantly lower than recent activity cycles, and some new ideas rejuvenating Babcock's shallow surface dynamo. The polar field precursor method is based on Babcock and Leighton's dynamo models wherein the polar field at solar minimum plays a major role in generating the next cycle's toroidal field and sunspots. Thus, by examining the polar fields of the Sun near solar minimum, a forecast for the next cycle's activity is obtained. With the current low value for the Sun's polar fields, this method predicts solar cycle 24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 135 plus or minus 35 (2 sigma), in the 2012-2013 timeframe (equivalent to smoothed Rz near 80 plus or minus 35 [2 sigma]). One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. We discuss unusual behavior in the Sun's polar fields that support this prediction. Normally, the solar precursor method is consistent with the geomagnetic precursor method, wherein geomagnetic variations are thought to be a good measure of the Sun's polar field strength. Because of the unusual polar field, the Earth does not appear to be currently bathed in the Sun's extended polar field (the interplanetary field), hence negating the primal cause behind the geomagnetic precursor technique. We also discuss how percolation may support Babcock's original shallow solar dynamo. In this process ephemeral regions from the solar magnetic carpet, guided by shallow surface fields, may collect to form pores and sunspots.

  14. Creating a sunspot database at the Solar Observatory of Ica National University in Perú

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Meneses, Lurdes

    2012-07-01

    We describe the database and the method used to analyze the sunspot data recorded at the Solar Observatory of the University of Ica in Peru. The parameters that are measured include the relative sunspot number (R), the sunspot area, their positions on the disk, and an estimate of the constant (k) included in R. Sunspots in the database are classified following the Zurich Classification System. From these observations, the active region area, the sunspot rotation speed, and other active regions properties can be estimated.

  15. Prediction of solar cycle based on the invariant

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Shijun; YU Xiaoding; CHEN Yongyi

    2003-01-01

    A new method of predicting solar activities has been introduced in this paper. The method can predict both the occurrence time and the maximum number of sunspot at the same time. By studying the variation of sunspot, we find that the combination of the several variables was nearly invariable during the entire solar cycles, as called invariant. And just only by determining the start time of a cycle, we can predict the occurrence time of cycle's peak value accurately. Furthermore, according to observational data of the sunspot cycles, it showed that the sunspot maximum number has correlation not only with the prophase variety of the number in the cycle but also with the anaphase of the previous period. So we can introduce an equivalent regression coefficient, which can dynamically self-adapt to different cycle lengths, and effectively solve the inconsistency between the accuracy and the lead-time of the forecast. It can guarantee the satisfied accuracy and effectively increases the lead-time of the forecast. This method can predict the maximum sunspot number for solar cycle at the approximate half rise of the period. This method predicts that the occurrence time of the maximum sunspot number for cycle 24 will be in January 2011.

  16. Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

    2007-01-01

    We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes

  17. Simulation study of two major events in the heliosphere during the present sunspot cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akasofu, S.I.; Fillius, W.; Sun, W.; Fry, C.; Dryer, M.

    1985-01-01

    The two major disturbances in the heliosphere during the present sunspot cycle, the event of June to August, 1982, and the event of April to June, 1978, are simulated by the method developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982). Specifically, an attempt was made to simulate the effects of six major flares from three active regions in June and July, 1982, and April and May, 1978. A comparison of the results with the solar wind observations at Pioneer 12 (approximately 0.8 au), ISEE-3 (approximately 1 au), Pioneer 11 (approximately 7 to 13 au) and Pioneer 10 (approximately 16 to 28 au) suggests that some major flares occurred behind the disk of the sun during the two periods. The method provides qualitatively some information as to how such a series of intense solar flares can greatly disturb both the inner and outer heliospheres. A long lasting effect on cosmic rays is discussed in conjunction with the disturbed heliosphere.

  18. Spring on the Sun: A New Cycle of Sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Irene

    2008-05-01

    Amateur German astronomer Samuel Heinrich Schwabe was searching for a planet inside Mercury's orbit when he made the serendipitous discovery of the Sun's cycle in 1843. Scientists later figured out that the cycle supplies the energy that drives space weather. But anticipating the start of a new 11-year solar cycle is a bit like waiting for spring: It's hard to tell sometimes when will be the year's final winter chill.

  19. Properties and Surprises of Solar Activity XXIII Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishkov, V. N.

    2010-12-01

    The main properties of the 23rd cycle match almost completely those of average-magnitude solar cycles, and some of the features of the cycle may indicate a change in the generation mode of magnetic fields in the solar convection zone. If this is the case, the Sun enters a period of intermediate and weak cycles of solar activity (SA) in terms of the Wolf number, which may last for 3 to 6 solar cycles. The main development stages of solar cycle 23 are the following: minimum of solar cycle 22: April 1996 (W* = 8.0); maximum of the smoothed relative sunspot number: April 2000; global polarity reversal of the general solar magnetic field: July to December 2000; secondary maximum of the relative sunspot number: November 2001; maximum of the 10.7-cm radio flux: February 2002; phase of the cycle maximum: October 1999 to June 2002; beginning of the decrease phase: July 2002; the point of minimum of the current SA cycle: December 2008. Solar cycle 23 has presented two powerful flare-active sunspot groups, in September 2005 and December 2006 (+5.5 and +6.6 years from the maximum) which by flare potential occupy 4th and 20th place among the most flare-active regions for the last four solar cycles. The unprecedented duration of the relative sunspot numbers fall that has led to already record duration of the last solar cycle among authentic cycles (since 1849) became the next surprise of development of solar activity during the last cycle. The phase of the minimum began in May 2005 and lasted for 4.5 years. Thus, the new solar cycle 24 has begun in January 2009.

  20. On the Relationship Between Sunspot Structure and Magnetic Field Changes Associated with Solar Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y. L.; Zhang, M.

    2016-08-01

    Many previous studies have shown that magnetic fields and sunspot structures present rapid and irreversible changes associated with solar flares. In this paper, we first use five X-class flares observed by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager to show that not only do magnetic fields and sunspot structures show rapid, irreversible changes, but also that these changes are closely related both spatially and temporally. The magnitudes of the correlation coefficients between the temporal variations of the horizontal magnetic field and sunspot intensity are all larger than 0.90, with a maximum value of 0.99 and an average value of 0.96. Then, using four active regions during quiescent periods, three observed and one simulated, we show that in sunspot penumbra regions there also exists a close correlation between sunspot intensity and horizontal magnetic field strength in addition to the well-known correlation between sunspot intensity and the normal magnetic field strength. By connecting these two observational phenomena, we show that the sunspot structure change and magnetic field change are two facets of the same phenomena of solar flares; one change might be induced by the change of the other due to a linear correlation between sunspot intensity and magnetic field strength out of a local force balance.

  1. The Impact of the Revised Sunspot Record on Solar Irradiance Reconstructions

    CERN Document Server

    Kopp, G; Lean, J; Wu, C J

    2016-01-01

    Reliable historical records of total solar irradiance (TSI) are needed for climate change attribution and research to assess the extent to which long-term variations in the Sun's radiant energy incident on the Earth may exacerbate (or mitigate) the more dominant warming in recent centuries due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. We investigate potential impacts of the new Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) sunspot-number time series on model reconstructions of TSI. In contemporary TSI records, variations on time scales longer than about a day are dominated by the opposing effects of sunspot darkening and facular brightening. These two surface magnetic features, retrieved either from direct observations or from solar activity proxies, are combined in TSI models to reproduce the current TSI observational record. Indices that manifest solar-surface magnetic activity, in particular the sunspot-number record, then enable the reconstruction of historical TSI. Revisions to the sunsp...

  2. The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhan-Le Du; Hua-Ning Wang; Xiang-Tao He

    2006-01-01

    The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anticorrelated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.

  3. Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. L. Baranovski

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters – the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

  4. Technique for Automated Recognition of Sunspots on Full-Disk Solar Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zharkov S

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A new robust technique is presented for automated identification of sunspots on full-disk white-light (WL solar images obtained from SOHO/MDI instrument and Ca II K1 line images from the Meudon Observatory. Edge-detection methods are applied to find sunspot candidates followed by local thresholding using statistical properties of the region around sunspots. Possible initial oversegmentation of images is remedied with a median filter. The features are smoothed by using morphological closing operations and filled by applying watershed, followed by dilation operator to define regions of interest containing sunspots. A number of physical and geometrical parameters of detected sunspot features are extracted and stored in a relational database along with umbra-penumbra information in the form of pixel run-length data within a bounding rectangle. The detection results reveal very good agreement with the manual synoptic maps and a very high correlation with those produced manually by NOAA Observatory, USA.

  5. Sunspots sketches during the solar eclipses of 9th January and 29th December of 1777 in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domínguez-Castro, Fernando; Gallego, María Cruz; Vaquero, José Manuel

    2017-06-01

    Two sunspot observations recorded by the Mexican Felipe de Zúñiga y Ontiveros have been revealed from a manuscript. One sunspot group was recorded on 9th January 1777 and four sunspot groups on 29th December 1777. Both records were taken during the observation of solar eclipses from Mexico City and their description also included sketches of the solar disk with sunspots. The sunspot group corresponding to 9th January was also observed by Erasmus Lievog. The observation on 29th December 1777 is the only record corresponding to this date.

  6. Beyond sunspots: Studies using the McIntosh Archive of global solar magnetic field patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Sarah E.; Webb, David; Hewins, Ian M.; McFadden, Robert H.; Emery, Barbara A.; Denig, William; McIntosh, Patrick S.

    2017-10-01

    In 1964 (Solar Cycle 20; SC 20), Patrick McIntosh began creating hand-drawn synoptic maps of solar magnetic features, based on Hα images. These synoptic maps were unique in that they traced magnetic polarity inversion lines, and connected widely separated filaments, fibril patterns, and plage corridors to reveal the large-scale organization of the solar magnetic field. Coronal hole boundaries were later added to the maps, which were produced, more or less continuously, into 2009 (i.e., the start of SC 24). The result was a record of ~45 years (~570 Carrington rotations), or nearly four complete solar cycles of synoptic maps. We are currently scanning, digitizing and archiving these maps, with the final, searchable versions publicly available at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. In this paper we present preliminary scientific studies using the archived maps from SC 23. We show the global evolution of closed magnetic structures (e.g., sunspots, plage, and filaments) in relation to open magnetic structures (e.g., coronal holes), and examine how both relate to the shifting patterns of large-scale positive and negative polarity regions.

  7. Revisiting the Sunspot Number

    CERN Document Server

    Clette, Frédéric; Vaquero, José M; Cliver, Edward W

    2014-01-01

    Our knowledge of the long-term evolution of solar activity and of its primary modulation, the 11-year cycle, largely depends on a single direct observational record: the visual sunspot counts that retrace the last 4 centuries, since the invention of the astronomical telescope. Currently, this activity index is available in two main forms: the International Sunspot Number initiated by R. Wolf in 1849 and the Group Number constructed more recently by Hoyt and Schatten (1998a,b). Unfortunately, those two series do not match by various aspects, inducing confusions and contradictions when used in crucial contemporary studies of the solar dynamo or of the solar forcing on the Earth climate. Recently, new efforts have been undertaken to diagnose and correct flaws and biases affecting both sunspot series, in the framework of a series of dedicated Sunspot Number Workshops. Here, we present a global overview of our current understanding of the sunspot number calibration. While the early part of the sunspot record befor...

  8. Are the sunspots really vanishing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clette Frédéric

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Context: The elapsed solar cycle (23 ended with an exceptionally long period of low activity and with unprecedented low levels for various series of solar irradiance and particle flux measurements. This unpredicted evolution of solar activity raised multiple questions about a future decline of the solar cycles and launched a quest for precursor signs of this possible deep solar transition over the last decade. Aim: We present here a review and overall interpretation of most current diagnostics of solar cycle 23, including the recent disagreements that appeared among solar reference indices and standard solar-based geo-indices, the indication of a changed pattern of internal torsional waves (helioseismology or the announced fading and magnetic weakening of sunspots. Methods: Based on a statistical analysis of detailed sunspot properties over the last 24 years, we complete the picture with new evidence of a strong global deficit of the smallest sunspots starting around 2000, in order to answer the question: are all sunspots about to disappear? Results: This global scale-dependent change in sunspot properties is confirmed to be real and not due to uncontrolled biases in some of the indices. It can also explain the recent discrepancies between solar indices by their different sensitivities to small and weak magnetic elements (small spots. The International Sunspot Index Ri, based on unweighted sunspot counts, proved to be particularly sensitive to this particular small-scale solar evolution. Conclusions: Our results and interpretation show the necessity to look backwards in time, more than 80 years ago. Indeed, the Sun seems to be actually returning to a past and hardly explored activity regime ending before the 1955–1995 Grand Maximum, which probably biased our current space-age view of solar activity.

  9. On the relationship between sunspot structure and magnetic field changes associated with solar flares

    CERN Document Server

    Song, Yongliang

    2016-01-01

    Many previous studies have shown that magnetic fields as well as sunspot structures present rapid and irreversible changes associated with solar flares. In this paper we first use five X-class flares observed by SDO/HMI to show that not only the magnetic fields and sunspot structures do show rapid, irreversible changes but also these changes are closely related, both spatially and temporally. The magnitudes of the correlation coefficients between the temporal variations of horizontal magnetic field and sunspot intensity are all larger than 0.90, with a maximum value of 0.99 and an average value of 0.96. Then using four active regions in quiescent times, three observed and one simulated, we show that in sunspot penumbra regions there also exists a close correlation between sunspot intensity and horizontal magnetic field strength, in addition to the well-known one between sunspot intensity and normal magnetic field strength. Connecting these two observational phenomena, we show that the sunspot structure change...

  10. Temporal Offsets between Maximum CME Speed Index and Solar, Geomagnetic, and Interplanetary Indicators during Solar Cycle 23 and the Ascending Phase of Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Özgüç, A; Georgieva, K; Kirov, B

    2016-01-01

    On the basis of morphological analysis of yearly values of the maximum CME (coronal mass ejection) speed index, the sunspot number and total sunspot area, sunspot magnetic field, and solar flare index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength, and the geomagnetic Ap and Dst indices, we point out the particularities of solar and geomagnetic activity during the last cycle 23, the long minimum which followed it and the ascending branch of cycle 24. We also analyze temporal offset between the maximum CME speed index and the above-mentioned solar, geomagnetic, and interplanetary indices. It is found that this solar activity index, analyzed jointly with other solar activity, interplanetary parameters, and geomagnetic activity indices, shows a hysteresis phenomenon. It is observed that these parameters follow different paths for the ascending and the descending phases of solar cycle 23. It is noticed that the hysteresis phenomenon represents a clue in the search for physical processes responsi...

  11. Photo-nucleation theory of correlation of Stream-flow of four South American rivers with Sunspot Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Brown, W Byers

    2011-01-01

    C.T.R.Wilson showed that when supersaturated water vapour was exposed to ultraviolet radiation from sunlight or other sources in the presence of oxygen it immediately condensed to form an aerosol. This phenomenon was eventually explained as due to the formation of a charge-transfer complex H2O+O2-, whose existence was confirmed theoretically and subsequently established experimentally. It is proposed that the correlation recently discovered between the stream-flow of the Parana and three other rivers in South America and the solar sunspot cycle is due to the photo-nucleation mechanism investigated by Wilson.

  12. Observation of a reversal of rotation in a sunspot during a solar flare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Yi; Jiang, Yunchun; Yang, Jiayan; Hong, Junchao; Li, Haidong; Yang, Bo; Xu, Zhe

    2016-12-13

    The abrupt motion of the photospheric flux during a solar flare is thought to be a back reaction caused by the coronal field reconfiguration. However, the type of motion pattern and the physical mechanism responsible for the back reaction has been uncertain. Here we show that the direction of a sunspot's rotation is reversed during an X1.6 flare using observations from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. A magnetic field extrapolation model shows that the corresponding coronal magnetic field shrinks with increasing magnetic twist density. This suggests that the abrupt reversal of rotation in the sunspot may be driven by a Lorentz torque that is produced by the gradient of twist density from the solar corona to the solar interior. These results support the view that the abrupt reversal in the rotation of the sunspot is a dynamic process responding to shrinkage of the coronal magnetic field during the flare.

  13. Dynamics in Sunspot Umbra as Seen in New Solar Telescope and Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph Data

    CERN Document Server

    Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Kilcik, Ali

    2014-01-01

    We analyse sunspot oscillations using Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) slit-jaw and spectral data and narrow-band chromospheric images from the New Solar Telescope (NST) for the main sunspot in NOAA AR 11836. We report that the difference between the shock arrival times as measured the Mg II k 2796.35\\AA\\ and Si IV 1393.76\\AA\\ line formation levels changes during the observed period and peak-to-peak delays may range from 40~s to zero. The intensity of chromospheric shocks also displays a long term (about 20~min) variations. NST's high spatial resolution \\ha\\ data allowed us to conclude that in this sunspot umbral flashes (UFs) appeared in the form of narrow bright lanes stretched along the light bridges and around clusters of umbral bright points. Time series also suggested that UFs preferred to appear on the sunspot-center side of light bridges, which may indicate the existence of a compact sub-photospheric driver of sunspot oscillations. The sunspot's umbra as seen in the IRIS chromospheric and ...

  14. Variation of solar acoustic emission and its relation to phase of the solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ruizhu; Zhao, Junwei

    2016-05-01

    Solar acoustic emission is closely related to solar convection and photospheric magnetic field. Variation of acoustic emission and its relation to the phase of solar cycles are important to understand dynamics of solar cycles and excitation of acoustic waves. In this work we use 6 years of SDO/HMI Dopplergram data to study acoustic emissions of the whole sun and of the quiet-sun regions, respectively, in multiple acoustic frequency bands. We show the variation of acoustic emission from May 2010 to April 2016, covering half of the solar cycle 24, and analyze its correlation with the solar activity level indexed by daily sunspot number and total magnetic flux. Results show that the correlation between the whole-Sun acoustic emission and the solar activity level is strongly negative for low frequencies between 2.5 and 4.5 mHz, but strongly positive for high frequencies between 4.5 and 6.0 mHz. For high frequencies, the acoustic emission excess in sunspot halos overwhelms the emission deficiency in sunspot umbrae and penumbrae. The correlation between the acoustic emission in quiet regions and the solar activity level is negative for 2.5-4.0 mHz and positive for 4.0-5.5 mHz. This shows that the solar background acoustic power, with active regions excluded, also varies during a solar cycle, implying the excitation frequencies or depths are highly related to the solar magnetic field.

  15. Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Relation for the Last two Solar Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilcik, A.; Yiǧit, E.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

    2017-01-01

    The long-term relationship between solar (sunspot counts in different Zurich sunspot groups, International Sunspot Number (ISSN), solar wind, and X-Ray solar flare index and geomagnetic indices (Ap and Dst) is investigated. Data sets used in this study cover a time period from January 1996 to March 2014. Our main findings are as follows: 1) The best correlation between the sunspot counts and the Ap index are obtained for the large group time series, while the other categories exhibited lower (final and medium) or no correlation at all (small). It is interesting to note that Ap index is delayed by about 13 months relatively to all sunspot count series and ISSN data. 2) The best correlation between the sunspot counts and the Dst index was as well obtained for the large AR time series. The Dst index delays with respect to the large group by about 2 months. 3) The highest correlation between the solar and geomagnetic indices were obtained between the solar wind speed and Ap and Dst indices with zero time delays (r = 0.76, r = 0.52, respectively). 4) The correlation coefficients between the geomagnetic indices (Ap, Dst) and X-Ray solar flare index (r = 0.59, r = -0.48, respectively) are a little higher than the correlation coefficients between these geomagnetic indices and ISSN (r = 0.57, r = -0.43, respectively). 5) The magnitude of all solar and geomagnetic indices (except the solar wind speed) has significantly decreased during the current solar cycle as compared to the same phase of the previous cycle.

  16. Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitiashvili, Irina

    2017-08-01

    Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 - 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 - 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

  17. The Sun's Meridional Flow and Its Role in Magnetic Flux Transport and the Sunspot Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, D. H.; Upton, L.

    2014-12-01

    The Sun's meridional flow can be measured with a variety of measurement techniques including, but not limited to: direct Doppler, magnetic feature tracking, velocity feature tracking, time-distance helioseismology, and ring-diagram analysis. Direct Doppler gives information on the flow in the photosphere while the other measurement techniques provide information about the flow at some depth or range of depths in the Sun's convection zone. These various measurement methods now provide a converging (but not yet fully converged) picture of the meridional flow as a function of latitude, depth, and time. This converging picture has a flow which is poleward from the equator all the way to pole in the near surface layers, has an equatorward return flow beginning at a depth of about 50 Mm, and has another poleward branch deeper in the convection zone. The poleward flow in the near surface layers varies systematically in strength and latitudinal structure with the phase of the sunspot cycle and from one cycle to the next. This near surface meridional flow is observed to play a significant role in the poleward transport of the magnetic flux that emerges at the surface in the form of bipolar active regions. Variations in the strength and structure of the meridional flow introduce variations in the strength of the Sun's polar fields, which in turn introduce variations in the size of subsequent sunspot cycles. The polar fields at the end of cycle 23 (2008-2009) were much weaker than the polar fields at the end of the previous cycles. This led to the production of the weakest sunspot cycle in 100 years - cycle 24. Surprisingly, we find that the variations we observed in the meridional flow during cycle 23 led to stronger polar fields than would have been produced otherwise. This suggests that variations in the meridional flow can be one mechanism for modulating the sizes of sunspot cycles - helping to keep them from getting too big or too small.

  18. Phase lags of solar hemispheric cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Muraközy, J

    2013-01-01

    The North-South asymmetry of solar activity is variable in time and strength. We analyse the long-term variation of the phase lags of hemispheric cycles and check a conjectured relationship between these phase lags and the hemispheric cycle strengths. Sunspot data are used from cycles 12-23 in which the separation of northern and southern hemispheres is possible. The centers of mass of the hemispheric cycle profiles were used to study the phase relations and relative strengths of the hemispheric cycles. This approach considers a cycle as a whole and disregards the short-term fluctuations of the cycle time profile. The phase of the hemispheric cycles shows an alternating variation: the northern cycle leads in 4 cycles and follows in 4 cycles. No significant relationship is found between the phase and strength differences of the hemispheric cycles. The period of 4+4 cycles appears to be close to the Gleissberg cycle and may provide a key to its physical background. It may raise a new aspect in the solar dynamo ...

  19. Brief Communication: Correlation of global earthquake rates with temperature and sunspot cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajesh, R.; Tiwari, R. K.

    2014-04-01

    We studied the complex and non-stationary records of global earthquake employing the robust statistical and spectral techniques to understand the patterns, processes and periodicity. Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) and correlation methods are used to quantify the nature of principle dynamical processes of global annual earthquake rates. The SSA decomposes the principle component of earthquake rates (first mode), which suggests that there is a linear increase in the yearly earthquake number from 1975 to 2005 accounting for 93% variance and may be identified with the earth's internal dynamical processes. Superimposed on this monotonic trend, there is an 11 years cyclic variation (second and third modes) accounting for 5% variance, which may corresponds to the well-known solar cycle. The remaining 2% higher order fluctuating components appears to be associated with artificial recharge and natural triggering forces (reservoir, tidal triggering etc.). The correlation study indicates that there is strong positive and negative correlation among the global earthquake rates with surface air temperature and sunspot numbers respectively. Interesting coupling mechanisms do exist, in which atmospheric circulations perturbed by the abrupt temperature variability might change the torques/momentum of inertia (earth's angular momentum) of the earth and thereby may offer the required inputs to trigger earthquake activities at the "critical phases".

  20. Brief Communication: Correlation of global earthquake rates with temperature and sunspot cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Rajesh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available We studied the complex and non-stationary records of global earthquake employing the robust statistical and spectral techniques to understand the patterns, processes and periodicity. Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA and correlation methods are used to quantify the nature of principle dynamical processes of global annual earthquake rates. The SSA decomposes the principle component of earthquake rates (first mode, which suggests that there is a linear increase in the yearly earthquake number from 1975 to 2005 accounting for 93% variance and may be identified with the earth's internal dynamical processes. Superimposed on this monotonic trend, there is an 11 years cyclic variation (second and third modes accounting for 5% variance, which may corresponds to the well-known solar cycle. The remaining 2% higher order fluctuating components appears to be associated with artificial recharge and natural triggering forces (reservoir, tidal triggering etc.. The correlation study indicates that there is strong positive and negative correlation among the global earthquake rates with surface air temperature and sunspot numbers respectively. Interesting coupling mechanisms do exist, in which atmospheric circulations perturbed by the abrupt temperature variability might change the torques/momentum of inertia (earth's angular momentum of the earth and thereby may offer the required inputs to trigger earthquake activities at the "critical phases".

  1. Latitude of Ephemeral Regions as Indicator of Strength of Solar Cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Tlatov, Andrey G

    2010-01-01

    Digitized images of full disk CaK spectroheliograms from two solar observatories were used to study cycle variation of ephemeral regions (ERs) over ten solar cycles 14-23. We calculate monthly averaged unsigned latitude of ERs and compare it with annual sunspot number. We find that average latitude of ERs can be used as a predictor for strength of solar cycle. For a short-term prediction (dT about 1-2 years), maximum latitude of ephemeral regions (in current cycle) defines the amplitude of that cycle (higher is the latitude of ERs, larger are the amplitudes of sunspot cycle). For a long-term prediction (dT about 1.5 solar cycles), latitude of ERs at declining phase of n-th cycle determines the amplitude of (n+2)-th sunspot cycle (lower is the latitude of ERs, stronger is the cycle). Using this latter dependency, we forecast the amplitude of sunspot cycle 24 at W=92 +/- 13 (in units of annual sunspot number).

  2. On the Role of Rotating Sunspots in the Activity of Solar Active Region NOAA 11158

    CERN Document Server

    Vemareddy, P; Maurya, R A

    2012-01-01

    We study the role of rotating sunspots in relation to the evolution of various physical parameters characterizing the non-potentiality of the active region NOAA 11158 and its eruptive events using the magnetic field data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and multi-wavelength observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). From the evolutionary study of HMI intensity and AIA channels, it is observed that the AR consists of two major rotating sunspots one connected to flare-prone region and another with CME. The constructed space-time intensity maps reveal that the sunspots exhibited peak rotation rates coinciding with the occurrence of the major eruptive events. Further, temporal profiles of twist parameters, viz., average shear angle, $\\alpha_{\\rm av}$, $\\alpha_{\\rm best}$, derived from HMI vector magnetograms and the rate of helicity injection, obtained from the horizontal flux motions of HMI line-of-sight magnetograms, corresponded well with ...

  3. Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  4. Solar neutrinos, solar flares, solar activity cycle and the proton decay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raychaudhuri, P.

    1985-01-01

    It is shown that there may be a correlation between the galactic cosmic rays and the solar neutrino data, but it appears that the neutrino flux which may be generated during the large solar cosmic ray events cannot in any way effect the solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. Only initial stage of mixing between the solar core and solar outer layers after the sunspot maximum in the solar activity cycle can explain the higher (run number 27 and 71) of solar neutrino data in Davis experiment. But solar flare induced atmospheric neutrino flux may have effect in the nucleon decay detector on the underground. The neutrino flux from solar cosmic rays may be a useful guide to understand the background of nucleon decay, magnetic monopole search, and the detection of neutrino flux in sea water experiment.

  5. Connection between solar activity cycles and grand minima generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchio, A.; Lepreti, F.; Laurenza, M.; Alberti, T.; Carbone, V.

    2017-03-01

    Aims: The revised dataset of sunspot and group numbers (released by WDC-SILSO) and the sunspot number reconstruction based on dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations have been analyzed to provide a deeper characterization of the solar activity main periodicities and to investigate the role of the Gleissberg and Suess cycles in the grand minima occurrence. Methods: Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) has been used to isolate the time behavior of the different solar activity periodicities. A general consistency among the results from all the analyzed datasets verifies the reliability of the EMD approach. Results: The analysis on the revised sunspot data indicates that the highest energy content is associated with the Schwabe cycle. In correspondence with the grand minima (Maunder and Dalton), the frequency of this cycle changes to longer timescales of 14 yr. The Gleissberg and Suess cycles, with timescales of 60-120 yr and 200-300 yr, respectively, represent the most energetic contribution to sunspot number reconstruction records and are both found to be characterized by multiple scales of oscillation. The grand minima generation and the origin of the two expected distinct types of grand minima, Maunder and longer Spörer-like, are naturally explained through the EMD approach. We found that the grand minima sequence is produced by the coupling between Gleissberg and Suess cycles, the latter being responsible for the most intense and longest Spörer-like minima (with typical duration longer than 80 yr). Finally, we identified a non-solar component, characterized by a very long scale oscillation of 7000 yr, and the Hallstatt cycle ( 2000 yr), likely due to the solar activity. Conclusions: These results provide new observational constraints on the properties of the solar cycle periodicities, the grand minima generation, and thus the long-term behavior of the solar dynamo.

  6. Planetary model of sunspot emergence: A spectral and autocorrelation analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Edmonds, Ian

    2016-01-01

    This paper is concerned with intermediate range periodicity in the sunspot area spectrum. An empirical model of sunspot area emergence based on Mercury planet conjunctions was developed and the spectra of the model variation and the sunspot area variation compared. By including solar cycle amplitude modulation and the effect of solar magnetic field reversal the model was able to predict fine detail in the sunspot area spectrum. As Mercury planet conjunctions occur predictably it was possible to compare the time variation of band limited components of sunspot area with the corresponding component variations in the model. When the model component variation was stable corresponding components of sunspot area lagged the model variation by a few tens of days. When a 180 degree phase change occurred in the model variation the corresponding component of sunspot area followed the change over an interval of a few hundred days, first by decreasing to zero and then emerging in phase with the model variation. Where perio...

  7. Properties of the "island" structures of the background magnetic field in the 20th solar cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golub, P. A.

    It is shown that the "island" structure of the background magnetic field and sunspot groups has a common zone of localization and a common law of latitude drift with the phase of the 20th solar cycle. An important role of the "island" structure is noted in the formation of the 11 year solar cycle.

  8. Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, Simon J. [School of Engineering, University of Bradford, Bradford, BD7 1DP (United Kingdom); Zharkov, Sergei I. [Department of Physics and Mathematics, University of Hull, Kingston upon Tyne, HU6 7RS (United Kingdom); Zharkova, Valentina V., E-mail: s.j.shepherd@brad.ac.uk, E-mail: s.zharkov@hull.ac.uk, E-mail: valentina.zharkova@northumbria.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics and Information Systems, University of Northumbria, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE2 8ST (United Kingdom)

    2014-11-01

    A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

  9. Installation package for a sunspot cascade solar water heating system

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    Solar water heating systems installed at Tempe, Arizona and San Diego, California are described. The systems consist of the following: collector, collector-tank water loop, solar tank, conventional tank, and controls. General guidelines which may be utilized in development of detailed installation plans and specifications are provided along with instruction on operation, maintenance, and installation of solar hot water systems.

  10. Helioseismic Observations of the Structure and Dynamics of a Rotating Sunspot Beneath the Solar Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junwei; Kosovichev, Alexander G.

    2003-01-01

    Time-distance helioseismology is applied to study the subphotospheric structures and dynamics of an unusually fast-rotating sunspot observed by the Michelson Doppler Imager on bead SOH0 in 2000 August. The subsurface sound speed structures and velocity fields are obtained for the sunspot region at different depths from 0 to 12 Mm. By comparing the subsurface sound speed variations with the surface magnetic field, we find evidence for structural twists beneath the visible surface of this active region, which may indicate that magnetic twists often seen at the photosphere also exist beneath the photosphere. We also report on the observation of subsurface horizontal vortical flows that extend to a depth of 5 Mm around this rotating sunspot and present evidence that opposite vortical flows may exist below 9 Mm. It is suggested that the vortical flows around this active region may build up a significant amount of magnetic helicity and energy to power solar eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to estimate the error propagation, and in addition the sunspot umbra is masked to test the reliability of our inversion results. On the basis of the three-dimensional velocity fields obtained from the time-distance helioseismology inversions, we estimate the subsurface kinetic helicity at different depths for the first time and conclude that it is comparable to the current helicity estimated from vector magnetograms.

  11. PRECURSOR OF SUNSPOT PENUMBRAL FORMATION DISCOVERED WITH HINODE SOLAR OPTICAL TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimizu, Toshifumi [Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Ichimoto, Kiyoshi [Kwasan and Hida Observatories, Kyoto University, Kamitakara-cho, Takayama, Gifu 506-1314 (Japan); Suematsu, Yoshinori, E-mail: shimizu.toshifumi@isas.jaxa.jp [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan)

    2012-03-10

    We present observations of a precursory signature that would be helpful for understanding the formation process of sunspot penumbrae. The Hinode Solar Optical Telescope successfully captured the entire evolution of a sunspot from the pore to a large well-developed sunspot with penumbra in an emerging flux region appearing in NOAA Active Region 11039. We found an annular zone (width 3''-5'') surrounding the umbra (pore) in Ca II H images before the penumbra formed around the umbra. The penumbra developed as if to fill the annular zone. The annular zone shows weak magnetogram signals, meaning less magnetic flux or highly inclined fields there. Pre-existing ambient magnetic field islands were distributed at the outer edge of the annular zone and did not come into the zone. There are no strong systematic flow patterns in the zone, but we occasionally observed small magnetic flux patches streaming out. The observations indicate that the annular zone is different from the sunspot moat flow region and that it represents the structure in the chromosphere. We conclude that the annular zone reflects the formation of a magnetic canopy overlying the region surrounding the umbra at the chromospheric level, long before the formation of the penumbra at the photospheric level. The magnetic field structure in the chromosphere needs to be considered in the formation process of the penumbrae.

  12. The solar rotation in the period 1853-1870 from the sunspot catalogues of Carrington, Peters, and de la Rue

    CERN Document Server

    Casas, Ricard

    2014-01-01

    R. C. Carrington, C. H. F. Peters, and W. de la Rue observed the sunspots in the second half of the 19th century, determining their heliographic positions between 1853 and 1870, before the establishment of the solar program of the Royal Greenwich Observatory. The large tables of sunspot positions included in the catalogues published by these observers have recently been converted to a machine readable format. The present work analyses this data by calculating the sunspot group velocities for each observer. These results are then fitted with a differential rotation law to compare the data of the three observers with each other and with the results published by other authors. Finally, a study is made of the possible relationship between the sunspot group areas as determined by de la Rue and the corresponding sunspot group velocities.

  13. Oscillatory Response of the Solar Chromosphere to a Strong Downflow above a Sunspot

    CERN Document Server

    Kwak, Hannah; Song, Donguk; Kim, Yeon-Han; Lim, Eun-Kyung; Madjarska, Maria S

    2016-01-01

    We report three-minute oscillations in the solar chromosphere driven by a strong downflow event in a sunspot. We used the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope and the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). The strong downflow event is identified in the chromospheric and transition region lines above the sunspot umbra. After the event, oscillations occur at the same region. The amplitude of the Doppler velocity oscillations is 2 km/s, and gradually decreases with time. In addition, the period of the oscillations gradually increases from 2.7 minutes to 3.3 minutes. In the IRIS 1330 slit-jaw images, we identify a transient brightening near the footpoint of the downflow detected in the Ha+0.5A image. The characteristics of the downflowing material are consistent with those of sunspot plumes. Based on our findings, we suggest that the gravitationally stratified atmosphere came to oscillate with three minute period in response to the impulsive downflow event as was theoretically i...

  14. Sunspot Cycle 24 and the Advent of Dalton-Like Minimum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. S. Ahluwalia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Ahluwalia and Jackiewicz (2011 have predicted that sunspot cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013±6 months. Here, we discuss the timeline for cycle 24 since its onset in December, 2008 and compare it to the timelines for the last ten cycles (14 to 23 of the 20th century; cycle 24 is rising the slowest. We speculate that cycle 24 may herald the onset of a Dalton-like minimum in the 21st century. The implications of this outcome on global temperature change and ensuing socioeconomic and political scenarios are discussed, on the basis of the historical record.

  15. The Variability of Solar Spectral Irradiance and Solar Surface Indices Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deniz Goker, Umit

    2016-07-01

    A study of variations of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the wavelength ranges 121.5 nm-300.5 nm for the period 1981-2009 is presented. We used various data for ultraviolet (UV) spectral lines and international sunspot number (ISSN) from interactive data centers as SME (NSSDC), UARS (GDAAC), SORCE (LISIRD) and SIDC, respectively. We developed a special software for extracting the data and reduced this data by using the MATLAB. In this respect, we revealed negative correlations of intensities of UV (289.5 nm-300.5 nm) emission lines originating in the solar chromosphere with the ISSN index during the unusually prolonged minimum between the solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24. We also compared our results with the ground-based telescopes as Solar Irradiance Platform, Stanford Data (SFO), Kodaikanal Data (KKL) and NGDC Homepage (Rome and Learmonth Solar Observatories). We studied the variations of total solar irradiance (TSI), magnetic field, sunspots/sunspot groups, Ca II K-flux, faculae and plage areas data with these ground-based telescopes, respectively. We reduced the selected data using the Phyton programming language and plot with the IDL programme. Therefore, we found that there was a decrease in the area of bright faculae and chromospheric plages while the percentage of dark faculae and plage decrease, as well. However, these decreases mainly occurred in small sunspots, contrary to this, these terms in large sunspot groups were comparable to previous SCs or even larger. Nevertheless, negative correlations between ISSN and SSI data indicate that these emissions are in close connection with the classes of sunspots/sunspot groups and "PLAGE" regions. Finally, we applied the time series of the chemical elements correspond to the wavelengths 121.5 nm-300.5 nm and compared with the ISSN data. We found an unexpected increasing in the 298.5 nm for the Fe II element. The variability of Fe II (298.5 nm) is in close connection with the plage regions and the sizes of the

  16. Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Louis Zerbo

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996–2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s, associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT. We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum.

  17. Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

    2013-05-01

    On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996-2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum.

  18. Solar coronal magnetic fields derived using seismology techniques applied to omnipresent sunspot waves

    CERN Document Server

    Jess, D B; Ryans, R S I; Christian, D J; Keys, P H; Mathioudakis, M; Mackay, D H; Prasad, S Krishna; Banerjee, D; Grant, S D T; Yau, S; Diamond, C

    2016-01-01

    Sunspots on the surface of the Sun are the observational signatures of intense manifestations of tightly packed magnetic field lines, with near-vertical field strengths exceeding 6,000 G in extreme cases. It is well accepted that both the plasma density and the magnitude of the magnetic field strength decrease rapidly away from the solar surface, making high-cadence coronal measurements through traditional Zeeman and Hanle effects difficult since the observational signatures are fraught with low-amplitude signals that can become swamped with instrumental noise. Magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) techniques have previously been applied to coronal structures, with single and spatially isolated magnetic field strengths estimated as 9-55 G. A drawback with previous MHD approaches is that they rely on particular wave modes alongside the detectability of harmonic overtones. Here we show, for the first time, how omnipresent magneto-acoustic waves, originating from within the underlying sunspot and propagating radially outwa...

  19. Evolution of a Long-lived Sunspot Group and Its Associated Solar-terrestrial Events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gui-Qing Zhang; Li-Rong Tian

    2005-01-01

    A long-lived sunspot group (AR 9604) on the south hemisphere that lasted five solar rotations and produced some strong bursts is analyzed. The focus is on its evolving features. Its whole life was successfully maintained by four Emerging Flux Regions (EFRs). Apart from the one that lasted only a short time and did not produce any bursts, the other three EFRs have the following common features: (1) A positive writhe of magnetic flux tubes and a twist of the field lines of the same sign, indicating kink instability. (2) A clockwise rotation and a high tilt because the writhe was right-handed. (3) A compact "island δ" structure of the sunspot group indicating concentrated kink instability. Since magnetic reconnection easily occurs at the kinked point of a very kink-unstable flux tube, these features should be the inducement of the strong bursts.

  20. Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum - Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihalov, J. D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A. J.; Smith, E. J.

    1990-01-01

    Changes in solar wind speed and magnetic polarity observed at the Pioneer spacecraft are discussed here in terms of the changing magnetic geometry implied by SMM coronagraph observations over the period 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations during this epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet, and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum.

  1. Solar Imagery - Photosphere - Sunspot Drawings - McMath-Hulbert Observatory

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The McMath-Hulbert Observatory is a decommissioned solar observatory in Lake Angelus, Michigan, USA. It was established in 1929 as a private observatory by father...

  2. The Shape of Solar Cycles Described by a Simplified Binary Mixture of Gaussian Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F. Y.; Xiang, N. B.; Kong, D. F.; Xie, J. L.

    2017-01-01

    Sunspot cycles usually present a double-peak structure. This work is devoted to using a function to describe the shape of sunspot cycles, including bimodal cycles, and we find that the shape of sunspot cycles can be described by a binary mixture of Gaussian functions with six parameters, two amplitudes, two gradients of curve, and two rising times, and the parameters could be reduced to three. The fitting result of this binary mixture of Gaussian functions is compared with some other functions used previously in the literature, and this function works pretty well, especially at cycle peaks. It is worth mentioning that the function can describe well the shape of those sunspot cycles that show double peaks, and it is superior to the binary mixture of the Laplace functions that was once utilized. The Solar Influences Data Analysis Center, on behalf of the World Data Center, recently issued a new version (version 2) of sunspot number. The characteristics of sunspot cycles are investigated, based on the function description of the new version.

  3. IS SOLAR CYCLE 24 PRODUCING MORE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS THAN CYCLE 23?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y.-M.; Colaninno, R., E-mail: yi.wang@nrl.navy.mil, E-mail: robin.colaninno@nrl.navy.mil [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States)

    2014-04-01

    Although sunspot numbers are roughly a factor of two lower in the current cycle than in cycle 23, the rate of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appears to be at least as high in 2011-2013 as during the corresponding phase of the previous cycle, according to three catalogs that list events observed with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). However, the number of CMEs detected is sensitive to such factors as the image cadence and the tendency (especially by human observers) to under-/overcount small or faint ejections during periods of high/low activity. In contrast to the total number, the total mass of CMEs is determined mainly by larger events. Using the mass measurements of 11,000 CMEs given in the manual CDAW catalog, we find that the mass loss rate remains well correlated with the sunspot number during cycle 24. In the case of the automated CACTus and SEEDS catalogs, the large increase in the number of CMEs during cycle 24 is almost certainly an artifact caused by the near-doubling of the LASCO image cadence after mid-2010. We confirm that fast CMEs undergo a much stronger solar-cycle variation than slow ones, and that the relative frequency of slow and less massive CMEs increases with decreasing sunspot number. We conclude that cycle 24 is not only producing fewer CMEs than cycle 23, but that these ejections also tend to be slower and less massive than those observed one cycle earlier.

  4. The Heliosphere through the Solar Activity Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Balogh, André; Suess, Steven T

    2008-01-01

    Understanding how the Sun changes though its 11-year sunspot cycle and how these changes affect the vast space around the Sun – the heliosphere – has been one of the principal objectives of space research since the advent of the space age. This book presents the evolution of the heliosphere through an entire solar activity cycle. The last solar cycle (cycle 23) has been the best observed from both the Earth and from a fleet of spacecraft. Of these, the joint ESA-NASA Ulysses probe has provided continuous observations of the state of the heliosphere since 1990 from a unique vantage point, that of a nearly polar orbit around the Sun. Ulysses’ results affect our understanding of the heliosphere from the interior of the Sun to the interstellar medium - beyond the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Written by scientists closely associated with the Ulysses mission, the book describes and explains the many different aspects of changes in the heliosphere in response to solar activity. In particular, the authors...

  5. Characteristics of latitude distribution of sunspots and their links to solar activity in pre-Greenwich data

    CERN Document Server

    Ivanov, V G

    2016-01-01

    We study and compare characteristics of sunspot group latitude distribution in two catalogs: the extended Greenwich (1874--2014) and Schwabe ones (1825--1867). We demonstrate that both datasets reveal similar links between latitude and amplitude characteristics of the 11-year cycle: the latitude dispersion correlates with the current activity and the mean latitude of sunspots in the cycle's maximum is proportional to its amplitude, It agrees with conclusions that we made in previous papers for the Greenwich catalog. We show that the latitude properties of sunspot distribution are much more stable against loss of observational data than traditional amplitude indices of activity. Therefore, the found links can be used for estimates of quality of observations and independent normalizing of activity levels in a gappy pre-Greenwich data. We demonstrate it using the Schwabe catalog as an example. In addition, we show that the first part of the Schwabe data probably contains errors in determination of sunspot latitu...

  6. On Solar Granulations, Limb Darkening, and Sunspots: Brief Insights in Remembrance of Father Angelo Secchi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Father Angelo Secchi used the existence of solar granulation as a central line of rea- soning when he advanced that the Sun was a gaseous body with a photosphere contain- ing incandescent particulate matter (Secchi A. Sulla Struttura della Fotosfera Solare. Bullettino Meteorologico dell’Osservatorio del Collegio Romano , 30 November 1864, v.3(11, 1–3. Secchi saw the granules as condensed matter emitting the photospheric spectrum, while the darkened intergranular lanes conveyed the presence of a gaseous solar interior. Secchi also considered the nature of sunspots and limb darkening. In the context of modern solar models, opacity arguments currently account for the emis- sive properties of the photosphere. Optical depth is thought to explain limb darkening. Both temperature variations and magnetic fields are invoked to justify the weakened emissivities of sunspots, even though the presence of static magnetic fields in materi- als is not usually associated with modified emissivity. Conversely, within the context of a liquid metallic hydrogen solar model, the appearance of granules, limb darkening, and sunspots can be elegantly understood through the varying directional emissivity of condensed matter. A single explanation is applicable to all three phenomena. Granular contrast can be directly associated with the generation of limb darkening. Depending on size, granules can be analyzed by considering Kolmogoroff’s formulations and B ́ enard convection, respectively, both of which were observed using incompressible liquids, not gases. Granules follow the 2-dimensional space filling laws of Aboav-Weiner and Lewis. Their adherence to these structural laws provides supportive evidence that the granular surface of the Sun represents elements which can only be constructed from condensed matter. A gaseous Sun cannot be confined to a 2-dimensional framework. Mesogranules, supergranules, and giant cells constitute additional entities which further

  7. ON THE ROLE OF ROTATING SUNSPOTS IN THE ACTIVITY OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGION NOAA 11158

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vemareddy, P.; Ambastha, A. [Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory, Udaipur-313001 (India); Maurya, R. A., E-mail: vema@prl.res.in, E-mail: ambastha@prl.res.in, E-mail: ramajor@astro.snu.ac.kr [Astronomy Program, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-747 (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-12-10

    We study the role of rotating sunspots in relation to the evolution of various physical parameters characterizing the non-potentiality of the active region (AR) NOAA 11158 and its eruptive events using the magnetic field data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and multi-wavelength observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. From the evolutionary study of HMI intensity and AIA channels, it is observed that the AR consists of two major rotating sunspots, one connected to a flare-prone region and another with coronal mass ejection (CME). The constructed space-time intensity maps reveal that the sunspots exhibited peak rotation rates coinciding with the occurrence of major eruptive events. Further, temporal profiles of twist parameters, namely, average shear angle, {alpha}{sub av}, {alpha}{sub best}, derived from HMI vector magnetograms, and the rate of helicity injection, obtained from the horizontal flux motions of HMI line-of-sight magnetograms, correspond well with the rotational profile of the sunspot in the CME-prone region, giving predominant evidence of rotational motion causing magnetic non-potentiality. Moreover, the mean value of free energy from the virial theorem calculated at the photospheric level shows a clear step-down decrease at the onset time of the flares revealing unambiguous evidence of energy release intermittently that is stored by flux emergence and/or motions in pre-flare phases. Additionally, distribution of helicity injection is homogeneous in the CME-prone region while in the flare-prone region it is not and often changes sign. This study provides a clear picture that both proper and rotational motions of the observed fluxes played significant roles in enhancing the magnetic non-potentiality of the AR by injecting helicity, twisting the magnetic fields and thereby increasing the free energy, leading to favorable conditions for the observed transient activity.

  8. Does a low solar cycle minimum hint at a weak upcoming cycle?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhan-Le Du; Hua-Ning Wang

    2010-01-01

    The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be followed by a weak Rm, and vice versa. We found that the evidence is insufficient to infer a very weak Cycle 24 from the very low Rmin in the preceding cycle. This is concluded by analyzing the correlation in the temporal variations of parameters for two successive cycles.

  9. Solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gui-Ming Le; Zi-Yu Cai; Hua-Ning Wang; Zhi-Qiang Yin; Peng Li

    2013-01-01

    We examine the solar cycle distribution of major geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤-100 nT),including intense storms at the level of-200 nT< Dst ≤-100 nT,great storms at-300 nT< Dst ≤-200 nT,and super storms at Dst ≤-300 nT,which occurred during the period of 1957-2006,based on Dst indices and smoothed monthly sunspot numbers.Statistics show that the majority (82%) of the geomagnetic storms at the level of Dst ≤-100 nT that occurred in the study period were intense geomagnetic storms,with 12.4% ranked as great storms and 5.6% as super storms.It is interesting to note that about 27% of the geomagnetic storms that occurred at all three intensity levels appeared in the ascending phase of a solar cycle,and about 73% in the descending one.Statistics also show that 76.9% of the intense storms,79.6% of the great storms and 90.9% of the super storms occurred during the two years before a solar cycle reached its peak,or in the three years after it.The correlation between the size of a solar cycle and the percentage of major storms that occurred,during the period from two years prior to maximum to three years after it,is investigated.Finally,the properties of the multi-peak distribution for major geomagnetic storms in each solar cycle is investigated.

  10. Long-term Variability in the Length of the Solar Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Richards, Mercedes T; Richards, Donald St P

    2013-01-01

    The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the starting time and rise time as well as the shape and amplitude of the cycle. With this tutorial, we investigate the variations in the length of the sunspot number cycle and examine whether the variability can be explained in terms of a secular pattern. We identified long-term cycles in archival data from 1610 - 2000 using median trace analyses of the cycle length and power spectrum analyses of the (O-C) residuals of the dates of sunspot minima and maxima. Median trace analyses of data spanning 385 years indicate a cycle length with a period of 183 - 243 years, and a power spectrum analysis identifies a period of 188 $\\pm$ 38 years. We also find a correspondence between the times of historic minima and the length of the sunspot cycle, such that the cycle length increases duri...

  11. A Curious History of Sunspot Penumbrae

    CERN Document Server

    Hathaway, D H

    2013-01-01

    Daily records of sunspot group areas compiled by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, from May of 1874 through 1976 indicate a curious history for the penumbral areas of the smaller sunspot groups. On average, the ratio of penumbral area to umbral area in a sunspot group increases from 5 to 6 as the total sunspot group area increases from 100 to 2000 microHem (a microHem is a millionth the area of a solar hemisphere). This relationship does not vary substantially with sunspot group latitude or with the phase of the sunspot cycle. However, for the sunspot groups with total areas <100 microHem, this ratio changes dramatically and systematically through this historical record. The ratio for these smallest sunspots is near 5.5 from 1874 to 1900. After a rapid rise to more than 7 in 1905 it drops smoothly to less than 3 by 1930 and then rises smoothly back to more than 7 in 1961. It then returns to near 5.5 from 1965 to 1976. The smooth variation from 1905 to 1961 shows no indication of any step-like changes that ...

  12. Heritage of Konkoly's Solar Observations: the Debrecen Photoheliograph Programme and the Debrecen Sunspot Databases

    CERN Document Server

    Baranyi, T; Ludmány, A

    2016-01-01

    The primary task of the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO) was to produce the detailed and reliable photographic documentation of the solar photospheric activity since 1958. This long-term effort resulted in various solar catalogues based on ground-based and space-borne observations. The DHO hosts solar-image databases containing heritages of two former Hungarian observatories. One of the sets of drawings was observed between 1872 and 1891 at the \\'Ogyalla Observatory (now Hurbanovo, Slovakia) founded by Mikl\\'os Konkoly-Thege (1842--1916). We briefly summarize the history of the events that resulted in the longest photographic sunspot database available at the DHO at present, and we show the basic role of Dr. Mikl\\'os Konkoly-Thege in this achievement.

  13. Solar Polarimetry - from Turbulent Magnetic Fields to Sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleint, Lucia

    2016-07-01

    Polarimetric measurements are essential to investigate the solar magnetic field. Scattering polarization and the Hanle effect allow us to probe the turbulent magnetic field and the still open questions of its strength and variability. Directed magnetic fields can be detected via the Zeeman effect. To derive their orientation and strength, so-called inversion codes are used, which iteratively modify a model atmosphere and calculate the resulting polarization profiles that are then compared to the observations. While photospheric polarimetry is well-established, chromospheric polarimetry is still in its infancy, especially because it requires a treatment in non-LTE, making it a complex non-linear problem. But some of the most important open questions concern the strength and geometry of the chromospheric magnetic field. In this talk, I will review different polarimetric analysis techniques and recent advances in magnetic field measurements going from the small scales of turbulent magnetic fields to changes of magnetic fields in an active region during flares.

  14. Solar neutrino: Flux, cosmic rays and the 11 year solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raychaudhuri, P.

    1985-01-01

    It is shown that the results of maximum likelihood treatment of Monte Carlo simulation with constant production rate of 7.6 SNU and 1.Epsilon SNU are consistent with the constant production rate when the tests of hypotheses (e.g., t-test, sigma squared-test, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test, run test, etc.) are applied to the two groups of data formed from sunspot minimum range and sunspot maximum range, whereas the real data pulsates with the solar activity cycle. It is shown that SN flux-change is in opposition phase to the solar activity cycle and lags behind the latter by about one year. A correlation between SN flux and the cosmic rays is suggested.

  15. Solar cycle variations in the solar wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, John W.; Lopez, Ramon E.

    1986-01-01

    The solar cycle variations of various solar wind parameters are reviewed. It is shown that there is a gradual decrease in the duration of high-speed streams from the declining phase of solar cycle 20 through the ascending phase of cycle 21 and a corresponding decrease in the annual average of the proton speed toward solar maximum. Beta, the ratio of the proton thermal pressure to magnetic pressure, undergoes a significant solar cycle variation, as expected from the variation in the IMF. Individual hourly averages of beta often exceed unity with 20 cases exceeding 10 and one case as high as 25. The Alfven Mach number shows a solar cycle variation similar to beta, lower aboard solar maximum. High-speed streams can be seen clearly in epsilon and the y component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

  16. The presence of large sunspots near the central solar meridian at the times of modern Japanese auroral observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Willis

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available The validity of a technique developed by the authors to identify historical occurrences of intense geomagnetic storms, which is based on finding approximately coincident observations of sunspots and aurorae recorded in East Asian histories, is corroborated using more modern sunspot and auroral observations. Scientific observations of aurorae in Japan during the interval 1957–2004 are used to identify geomagnetic storms that are sufficiently intense to produce auroral displays at low geomagnetic latitudes. By examining white-light images of the Sun obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory, the Big Bear Solar Observatory, the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft, it is found that a sunspot large enough to be seen with the unaided eye by an "experienced" observer was located reasonably close to the central solar meridian immediately before all but one of the 30 distinct Japanese auroral events, which represents a 97% success rate. Even an "average" observer would probably have been able to see a sunspot with the unaided eye before 24 of these 30 events, which represents an 80% success rate. This corroboration of the validity of the technique used to identify historical occurences of intense geomagnetic storms is important because early unaided-eye observations of sunspots and aurorae provide the only possible means of identifying individual historical geomagnetic storms during the greater part of the past two millennia.

  17. A Normalized Sunspot-Area Series Starting in 1832: an Update

    CERN Document Server

    Carrasco, V M S; Gallego, M C; Sánchez-Bajo, F

    2016-01-01

    A new normalized sunspot-area series has been reconstructed from the series obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory and other contemporary institutions for the period 1874 - 2008 and the area series compiled by De la Rue, Stewart, and Loewy from 1832 to 1868. Since the two sets of series do not overlap in time, we used as a link between them the new version of sunspot index number (Version 2) published by SILSO (Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations). We also present a spectral analysis of the normalized area series in search of periodicities beyond the well-known solar cycle of 11 years and a study of the Waldmeier effect in the new version of sunspot-number and the sunspot-area series presented in this study. We conclude that while this effect is significant in the new series of sunspot number, it has a weak relationship with the sunspot-area series.

  18. Depth-dependent global properties of a sunspot observed by Hinode using the Solar Optical Telescope/Spectropolarimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Sanjiv K.; van Noort, Michiel; Solanki, Sami K.; Lagg, Andreas

    2015-11-01

    Context. For the past two decades, the three-dimensional structure of sunspots has been studied extensively. A recent improvement in the Stokes inversion technique prompts us to revisit the depth-dependent properties of sunspots. Aims: In the present work, we aim to investigate the global depth-dependent thermal, velocity, and magnetic properties of a sunspot, as well as the interconnection between various local properties. Methods: We analysed high-quality Stokes profiles of the disk-centred, regular, leading sunspot of NOAA AR 10933, acquired by the Solar Optical Telescope/Spectropolarimeter (SOT/SP) on board the Hinode spacecraft. To obtain depth-dependent stratification of the physical parameters, we used the recently developed, spatially coupled version of the SPINOR inversion code. Results: First, we study the azimuthally averaged physical parameters of the sunspot. We find that the vertical temperature gradient in the lower- to mid-photosphere is at its weakest in the umbra, while it is considerably stronger in the penumbra, and stronger still in the spot's surroundings. The azimuthally averaged field becomes more horizontal with radial distance from the centre of the spot, but more vertical with height. At continuum optical depth unity, the line-of-sight velocity shows an average upflow of ~300 ms-1 in the inner penumbra and an average downflow of ~1300 ms-1 in the outer penumbra. The downflow continues outside the visible penumbral boundary. The sunspot shows, at most, a moderate negative twist of qualitative similarity to that of a standard penumbral filament and its surrounding spines. Conclusions: The large-scale variation in the physical parameters of a sunspot at various optical depths is presented. Our results suggest that the spines in the penumbra are basically the outward extension of the umbra. The spines and the penumbral filaments, together, are the basic elements that form a sunspot penumbra.

  19. An Estimate of the Size and Shape of Sunspot Cycle 24 Based on its Early Cycle Behavior using the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann Shape-Fitting Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    On the basis of 12-month moving averages (12-mma) of monthly mean sunspot number (R), sunspot cycle 24 had its minimum amplitude (Rm = 1.7) in December 2008. At 12 mo past minimum, R measured 8.3, and at 18 mo past minimum, it measured 16.4. Thus far, the maximum month-to-month rate of rise in 12-mma values of monthly mean sunspot number (AR(t) max) has been 1.7, having occurred at elapsed times past minimum amplitude (t) of 14 and 15 mo. Compared to other sunspot cycles of the modern era, cycle 24?s Rm and AR(t) max (as observed so far) are the smallest on record, suggesting that it likely will be a slow-rising, long-period sunspot cycle of below average maximum amplitude (RM). Supporting this view is the now observed relative strength of cycle 24?s geomagnetic minimum amplitude as measured using the 12-mma value of the aa-geomagnetic index (aam = 8.4), which also is the smallest on record, having occurred at t equals 8 and 9 mo. From the method of Ohl (the inferred preferential association between RM and aam), one predicts RM = 55 +/- 17 (the ?1 se prediction interval) for cycle 24. Furthermore, from the Waldmeier effect (the inferred preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM) one predicts an ASC longer than 48 mo for cycle 24; hence, maximum amplitude occurrence should be after December 2012. Application of the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann shape-fitting function, using an RM = 70 and ASC = 56 mo, is found to adequately fit the early sunspot number growth of cycle 24.

  20. Major Space Weather Events during the Weak Solar Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

    2012-01-01

    We report on the level of solar activity during cycles 23 and 24 as the cycles build toward the corresponding solar maxima. The prolonged minimum period that followed solar cycle 23 and the weaker magnetic field at the poles seem to have resulted in a weaker level of activity during cycle 24. The double speak structure often observed in the maximum phases seems to be present during cycle 24, with the first peak having a sunspot number of only N90. large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, major geomagnetic storms, and radio-emitting interplanetary shocks have been observed in relatively sma:ier numbers. While the number of large SEP events during the rise phase of cycles 24 is not too different from that of cycle 23, they are generally less intense. Five ground level enhancement (GlE) events occurred up to the first activity peak in cycle 23, while a lone GlE event has been observed during the corresponding phase in cycle 24. There were 35 large (Dst S -100 nT) geomagnetic storms during the first 4.5 years of cycle 23, while only 5 occurred during cycle 24. The subdued activity during cycle 23 is consistent with the low numbers of type II radio bursts, full halo CMEs, and interplanetary shocks.

  1. Revisiting the prediction of solar activity based on the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length

    CERN Document Server

    Carrasco, V M S; Gallego, M C

    2016-01-01

    It is very important to forecast the future solar activity due to its effect on our planet and near space. Here, we employ the new version of the sunspot number index (version 2) to analyse the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length proposed by Du (2006). We show that the correlation between the parameters used by Du (2006) for the prediction of the sunspot number (amplitude of the cycle, Rm, and max-max cycle length for two solar cycles before, Pmax-2) disappears when we use solar cycles prior to solar cycle 9. We conclude that the correlation between these parameters depends on the time interval selected. Thus, the proposal of Du (2006) should definitively not be considered for prediction purposes.

  2. Temporal Offsets Between Maximum CME Speed Index and Solar, Geomagnetic, and Interplanetary Indicators During Solar Cycle 23 and the Ascending Phase of Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgüç, A.; Kilcik, A.; Georgieva, K.; Kirov, B.

    2016-05-01

    On the basis of a morphological analysis of yearly values of the maximum coronal mass ejection (CME) speed index, the sunspot number and total sunspot area, sunspot magnetic field, and solar flare index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength, and the geomagnetic Ap and D_{st} indices, we point out the particularities of solar and geomagnetic activity during the last Cycle 23, the long minimum that followed it, and the ascending branch of Cycle 24. We also analyze the temporal offset between the maximum CME speed index and the above-mentioned solar, geomagnetic, and interplanetary indices. It is found that this solar activity index, analyzed jointly with other solar activity, interplanetary parameters, and geomagnetic activity indices, shows a hysteresis phenomenon. It is observed that these parameters follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of Cycle 23. The hysteresis phenomenon represents a clue in the search for physical processes responsible for linking the solar activity to near-Earth and geomagnetic responses.

  3. A brief review on the presentation of cycle 24, the first integrated solar cycle in the new millennium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. J. Li

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The status of the extended solar activity minimum, since the second half of 2007, has been briefly instructed to the solar-terrestrial community. Cycle 24 has the most spotless days since cycle 16, and probably even since the modern cycles, latitudes of high-latitude (>35° sunspots belonging to a new cycle around the minimum time of the cycle are statistically the lowest at present, compared with those of cycle 12 onwards, and there is only one or no sunspots in a month appearing at high latitudes (>20° for 58 months (from November 2003 to September 2008, which is observed for the first time since cycle 12 onwards. The solar wind velocity and pressure, 10.7 cm solar radio flux, the polar solar magnetic field, solar total irradiance, and so on reach their minima during the 23–24 cycle minimum time. In order to explain the present extreme low activity, we introduced here one possible mechanism using helio-seismology observations. Viewing, from the long-term running of the time scales of both the Gleissberg period and millenniums, the extended solar activity minimum becomes logical. According to the present observations, the cycle 24 should start in November 2008. Solar activity is predicted at being about 30% lower in cycle 24 than in cycle 23, synthesizing the typical predictions of solar activity, including those given by NASA and NOAA. The 24th solar cycle is sluggishly coming and it should be an opportune moment for studying solar physics and solar-terrestrial physics.

  4. Forecasting the Peak of the Present Solar Activity Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, Rabab; Marzouk, Beshir

    2016-07-01

    Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aa min. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between RM and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives RM24t = 101.9with rise time Tr = 4.5 Y. For the even cycles RM24e = 108.3 with rise time Tr = 3.9 Y. Based on the average aa min. index for the year of sunspot minimum cycles (13 - 23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be RMaa = 116.5 for both the total and even cycles. Application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 146, which are over estimation. Our result indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

  5. Scattering Matrix for the Interaction between Solar Acoustic Waves and Sunspots. I. Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming-Hsu; Chou, Dean-Yi; Zhao, Hui

    2017-01-01

    Assessing the interaction between solar acoustic waves and sunspots is a scattering problem. The scattering matrix elements are the most commonly used measured quantities to describe scattering problems. We use the wavefunctions of scattered waves of NOAAs 11084 and 11092 measured in the previous study to compute the scattering matrix elements, with plane waves as the basis. The measured scattered wavefunction is from the incident wave of radial order n to the wave of another radial order n‧, for n=0{--}5. For a time-independent sunspot, there is no mode mixing between different frequencies. An incident mode is scattered into various modes with different wavenumbers but the same frequency. Working in the frequency domain, we have the individual incident plane-wave mode, which is scattered into various plane-wave modes with the same frequency. This allows us to compute the scattering matrix element between two plane-wave modes for each frequency. Each scattering matrix element is a complex number, representing the transition from the incident mode to another mode. The amplitudes of diagonal elements are larger than those of the off-diagonal elements. The amplitude and phase of the off-diagonal elements are detectable only for n-1≤slant n\\prime ≤slant n+1 and -3{{Δ }}k≤slant δ {k}x≤slant 3{{Δ }}k, where δ {k}x is the change in the transverse component of the wavenumber and Δk = 0.035 rad Mm‑1.

  6. Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William F.; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

    2016-01-01

    In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.

  7. Kodaikanal Digitized White-light Data Archive (1921-2011): Analysis of various solar cycle features

    CERN Document Server

    Mandal, Sudip; Samanta, Tanmoy; Hazra, Gopal; Banerjee, Dipankar; B, Ravindra

    2016-01-01

    Long-term sunspot observations are key to understand and predict the solar activities and its effects on the space weather.Consistent observations which are crucial for long-term variations studies,are generally not available due to upgradation/modifications of observatories over the course of time. We present the data for a period of 90 years acquired from persistent observation at the Kodaikanal observatory in India. We use an advanced semi-automated algorithm to detect the sunspots form each calibrated white-light image. Area, longitude and latitude of each of the detected sunspots are derived. Implementation of a semi-automated method is very necessary in such studies as it minimizes the human bias in the detection procedure. Daily, monthly and yearly sunspot area variations obtained from the Kodaikanal, compared well with the Greenwich sunspot area data. We find an exponentially decaying distribution for the individual sunspot area for each of the solar cycles. Analyzing the histograms of the latitudinal...

  8. Prediction of ionospheric scintillation using neural network over East African region during ascending phase of sunspot cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taabu, S. D.; D'ujanga, F. M.; Ssenyonga, T.

    2016-04-01

    VHF and GPS-SCINDA receivers located both at Nairobi (36.8°E, 1.3°S) in Kenya and at Kampala (32.57°E, 0.335°N) in Uganda were used to investigate ionospheric scintillation and forecast scintillations of a few hundred meter-scale irregularities associated with equatorial ionospheric irregularities for the period 2011 and 2012. VHF scintillations was characterized by long duration of activity and slow fading that lasted till early morning hours (05:00 LT). Furthermore, different percentage occurrence of scintillations in some months were observed, but found that weak scintillation (0.2 sunspot number. The enhancement of pre-midnight scintillations during magnetically disturbed and quiet periods was also observed and found to be seasonal and local time dependent. An attempt was made to develop a model of percentage occurrence of scintillations for the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 using neural network and the modeled data for the occurrence of scintillations was found to match well with original data.

  9. CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 22-YEAR SOLAR MAGNETIC CYCLE AND THE 22-YEAR QUASICYCLE IN THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qu Weizheng; Zhao Jinping; Huang Fei; Deng Shenggui, E-mail: quweizhe@ouc.edu.cn [College of Environment Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 (China)

    2012-07-15

    According to the variation pattern of the solar magnetic field polarity and its relation to the relative sunspot number, we established the time series of the sunspot magnetic field polarity index and analyzed the strength and polarity cycle characteristics of the solar magnetic field. The analysis showed the existence of a cycle with about a 22-year periodicity in the strength and polarity of the solar magnetic field, which proved the Hale proposition that the 11-year sunspot cycle is one-half of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. By analyzing the atmospheric temperature field, we found that the troposphere and the stratosphere in the middle latitude of both the northern and southern hemispheres exhibited a common 22-year quasicycle in the atmospheric temperature, which is believed to be attributable to the 22-year solar magnetic cycle.

  10. Variability of sunspot cycle QBO and total ozone over high altitude western Himalayan regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ningombam, Shantikumar Singh

    2011-10-01

    Long-term trend of total column ozone at high altitude region in Ladakh is studied, using a total ozone mapping spectrometer and an ozone monitoring instrument during 1979-2008. In the region, total ozone exhibits seasonality with maximum in spring and minimum in autumn. The decreasing trend of total ozone was found as -2.51±0.45% per decade with 95% confidence level in the region. Ozone deficiency in the Ladakh region is strongest (-33.9 DU at Hanle) in May and weakest (-11.5 DU at Hanle) in January-February. In the study, the solar maximum in 1990 is in phase with ozone maximum, while ozone variation lags in phase with the 1980 and 2000 solar maxima. However, a significant correlation between total ozone and sunspot number is achieved in the westerly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation during spring season. Decreasing trend of ozone in the region is correlating well with the cooling rate in the lower stratosphere.

  11. Multi-timescale Solar Cycles and the Possible Implications

    CERN Document Server

    Tan, Baolin

    2010-01-01

    Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The comparisons between ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare is defined as $\\geq$ X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84 GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency: the more powerful of the flare, the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most powerful flares take place in the de...

  12. SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Dasi-Espuig, Maria [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Sonnensystemforschung, D-37191 Katlenburg-Lindau (Germany); Balmaceda, Laura A., E-mail: amunoz@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: edeluca@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: dasi@mps.mpg.de, E-mail: lbalmaceda@icate-conicet.gob.ar [Institute for Astronomical, Terrestrial and Space Sciences (ICATE-CONICET), San Juan (Argentina)

    2013-04-20

    The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.

  13. The Total Solar Irradiance, UV Emission and Magnetic Flux during the Last Solar Cycle Minimum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. E. Benevolenskaya

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We have analyzed the total solar irradiance (TSI and the spectral solar irradiance as ultraviolet emission (UV in the wavelength range 115–180 nm, observed with the instruments TIM and SOLSTICE within the framework of SORCE (the solar radiation and climate experiment during the long solar minimum between the 23rd and 24th cycles. The wavelet analysis reveals an increase in the magnetic flux in the latitudinal zone of the sunspot activity, accompanied with an increase in the TSI and UV on the surface rotation timescales of solar activity complexes. In-phase coherent structures between the midlatitude magnetic flux and TSI/UV appear when the long-lived complexes of the solar activity are present. These complexes, which are related to long-lived sources of magnetic fields under the photosphere, are maintained by magnetic fluxes reappearing in the same longitudinal regions. During the deep solar minimum (the period of the absence of sunspots, a coherent structure has been found, in which the phase between the integrated midlatitude magnetic flux is ahead of the total solar irradiance on the timescales of the surface rotation.

  14. Comparing Digital Sunspot Number Counts to the New International Sunspot Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Henry, Timothy

    2016-05-01

    The International Sunspot Numbers (ISN; Version 2) have been recently (2015) revised at the Sunspot Index and Long Term Solar Observations maintained at Royal Observatory of Belgium (http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles). ISN is a reconciled aggregate over several ground-based observatories, mostly using hand-drawn sunspot recordings. We make a detailed 10-year comparisons between the Improved Solar Observing Optical Network’s prototype digital data (2002-2011) and the ISN V1 (Version 1; pre-2015), and ISN V2. Over the ~ 10-year period, ISN V1 underestimates the sunspot number counts by up to 40% while the ISN V2 overestimates by a similar amount. We also compare the hand-drawn data from a single telescope at the National Solar Observatory with the digital data and ISN numbers. These comparisons reveal caveats that need to be taken into account, as sunspot numbers are used to forecast both the solar cycle and the near term climatology of solar cycle impacts on the space environment.

  15. An early solar dynamo prediction: Cycle 23 is approximately cycle 22

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.; Pesnell, W. Dean

    1993-01-01

    In this paper, we briefly review the 'dynamo' and 'geomagnetic precursor' methods of long-term solar activity forecasting. These methods depend upon the most basic aspect of dynamo theory to predict future activity, future magnetic field arises directly from the magnification of pre-existing magnetic field. We then generalize the dynamo technique, allowing the method to be used at any phase of the solar cycle, through the development of the 'Solar Dynamo Amplitude' (SODA) index. This index is sensitive to the magnetic flux trapped within the Sun's convection zone but insensitive to the phase of the solar cycle. Since magnetic fields inside the Sun can become buoyant, one may think of the acronym SODA as describing the amount of buoyant flux. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle's smoothed peak activity will be about 210 +/- 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a sunspot number of 170 +/- 25. This suggests that solar cycle #23 will be large, comparable to cycle #22. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 1999.7 +/- 1 year. Since the current approach is novel (using data prior to solar minimum), these estimates may improve when the upcoming solar minimum is reached.

  16. Predicting the start and maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24 using similar phases and a cycle grouping

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jia-Long Wang; Wei-Guo Zong; Gui-Ming Le; Hai-Juan Zhao; Yun-Qiu Tang; Yang Zhang

    2009-01-01

    We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SMSNs) available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle.Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2±7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012.

  17. WHAT CAUSES THE INTER-SOLAR-CYCLE VARIATION OF TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiang, N. B.; Kong, D. F., E-mail: nanbin@ynao.ac.cn [National Astronomical Observatories/Yunnan Observatory, CAS, Kunming 650011 (China)

    2015-12-15

    The Physikalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos total solar irradiance (TSI), Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitoring TSI, and Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium TSI are three typical TSI composites. Magnetic Plage Strength Index (MPSI) and Mount Wilson Sunspot Index (MWSI) should indicate the weak and strong magnetic field activity on the solar full disk, respectively. Cross-correlation (CC) analysis of MWSI with three TSI composites shows that TSI should be weakly correlated with MWSI, and not be in phase with MWSI at timescales of solar cycles. The wavelet coherence (WTC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) of TSI with MWSI indicate that the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI is also not related to solar strong magnetic field activity, which is represented by MWSI. However, CC analysis of MPSI with three TSI composites indicates that TSI should be moderately correlated and accurately in phase with MPSI at timescales of solar cycles, and that the statistical significance test indicates that the correlation coefficient of three TSI composites with MPSI is statistically significantly higher than that of three TSI composites with MWSI. Furthermore, the cross wavelet transform (XWT) and WTC of TSI with MPSI show that the TSI is highly related and actually in phase with MPSI at a timescale of a solar cycle as well. Consequently, the CC analysis, XWT, and WTC indicate that the solar weak magnetic activity on the full disk, which is represented by MPSI, dominates the inter-solar-cycle variation of TSI.

  18. The "Sun-climate" relationship : III. The solar flares, north-south sunspot arrea asymmetry and climate

    CERN Document Server

    Komitov, Boris

    2010-01-01

    In this last Paper III additional evidences that the solar high energetic particles radiation with energies higher as 100 MeV (the solar cosmic rays SCR) is an very important component for the "Sun- climate" relationship are given (see also Paper I and II). The total solar irradiance (TSI) and the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) variations given an integral climate effect of cooling in sunspot minima and warming in the sunspot maxima. Unlike the both ones the powerful solar corpuscular events plays a cooling climate role during the epochs of their heigh levels. By this one subcenturial global and regional temperature quasi- cyclic changes by duration of approximately 60 years could be track during the last 150 years of instrumental climate observations . It has been also evided in the paper that this subcenturial oscilation is very important in the Group sunspot number (GSN) data series since the Maunder minimum up to the end of 20th century. Thus the solar erruptive activity effect make the total "Sun -climate" r...

  19. A study of north-south asymmetry of interplanetary magnetic field plasma and some solar indices throughout four solar cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Borie, M. A.; Abdel-halim, A. A.; El-Monier, S. Y.; Bishara, A. A.

    2017-06-01

    We provide a long epoch study of a set of solar and plasma parameters (sunspot number Rz, total solar irradiance TSI, solar radio flux SF, solar wind speed V, ion density n, dynamic pressure nV 2, and ion temperature T) covering a temporal range of several decades corresponding to almost four solar cycles. Such data have been organized accordingly with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity, i.e. away (A) if the azimuthal component of the IMF points away from the Sun and T if it points towards, to examine the N-S asymmetries between the northern and southern hemispheres. Our results displayed the sign of the N-S asymmetry in solar activity depends on the solar magnetic polarity state (qA>0 or qAIMF points away from the Sun. Moreover, during solar cycles 21st and 24th the solar plasma is more dense, hotter, and faster south of the HCS.

  20. Solar Cycle Predictions (Invited Review)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2012-11-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions, just as weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on low-Earth orbit spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as the reduced propellant load is consumed more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5 - 20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations of how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future are discussed.

  1. Long-Term Sunspot Number Prediction based on EMD Analysis and AR Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Tong Xu; Jian Wu; Zhen-Sen Wu; Qiang Li

    2008-01-01

    The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Auto-Regressive model (AR) are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction: different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.

  2. Shannon Entropy-Based Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakad, Bharati; Kakad, Amar; Ramesh, Durbha Sai

    2017-07-01

    A new model is proposed to forecast the peak sunspot activity of the upcoming solar cycle (SC) using Shannon entropy estimates related to the declining phase of the preceding SC. Daily and monthly smoothed international sunspot numbers are used in the present study. The Shannon entropy is the measure of inherent randomness in the SC and is found to vary with the phase of an SC as it progresses. In this model each SC with length T_{cy} is divided into five equal parts of duration T_{cy}/5. Each part is considered as one phase, and they are sequentially termed P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5. The Shannon entropy estimates for each of these five phases are obtained for the nth SC starting from n=10 - 23. We find that the Shannon entropy during the ending phase (P5) of the nth SC can be efficiently used to predict the peak smoothed sunspot number of the (n+1)th SC, i.e. S_{max}^{n+1}. The prediction equation derived in this study has a good correlation coefficient of 0.94. A noticeable decrease in entropy from 4.66 to 3.89 is encountered during P5 of SCs 22 to 23. The entropy value for P5 of the present SC 24 is not available as it has not yet ceased. However, if we assume that the fall in entropy continues for SC 24 at the same rate as that for SC 23, then we predict the peak smoothed sunspot number of 63±11.3 for SC 25. It is suggested that the upcoming SC 25 will be significantly weaker and comparable to the solar activity observed during the Dalton minimum in the past.

  3. Long-term variations in sunspot magnetic field - area relation

    CERN Document Server

    Nagovitsyn, Yury A; Osipova, Aleksandra A

    2016-01-01

    Using observations of sunspot magnetic field strengths (H) from the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory (CrAO) and area (S) of sunspots from the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of Pulkovo Observatory, we investigate the changes in the relation between H and S over the period of about two solar cycles (1994-2013). The data were fitted by H = A + B log S, where A = (778+/-46) and B = (778+/-25). We show that the correlation between H and S varies with the phase of solar cycle, and $A$ coefficient decreases significantly after year 2001, while B coefficient does not change significantly. Furthermore, our data confirm the presence of two distinct populations in distribution of sunspots (small sunspots with weaker field strength and large sunspots with stronger field). We show that relative contribution of each component to the distribution of sunspots by their area changes with the phase of solar cycle and on longer-then-cycle periods. We interpret these changes as a signature of a long-term (centennial) v...

  4. Coronal Dynamic Activities in the Declining Phase of a Solar Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Jang, Minhwan; Hong, Sunhak; Choe, G S

    2016-01-01

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low latitude coronal hole areas and the statistics of splitting and merging events of coronal holes and coronal mass ejections detected by SOHO/LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total coronal hole area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar coronal holes prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low latitude coronal holes are dominant. The events of coronal hole splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 coronal mass ejections are also over-populated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results ...

  5. A New Challenge to Solar Dynamo Models from Helioseismic Observations: The Latitudinal Dependence of the Progression of the Solar Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Simoniello, R; Jain, K; Hill, F

    2016-01-01

    The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $\\alpha\\Omega$ dynamo wave and flux transport dynamo models. Very different parameter values produce similar results, making it difficult to understand the origin of these solar cycle properties. We use GONG helioseismic data to investigate the progression of the solar cycle as observed in intermediate-degree global $p$-mode frequency shifts at different latitudes and subsurface layers, from the beginning of solar cycle 23 up to the maximum of the current solar cycle. We also analyze those for high-degree modes in each hemisphere obtained through the ring-diagram technique of local helioseismology. The analysis highlighted differences in the progression of the cycle below 15\\degr\\ compared to higher latitudes. While the cycle starts at mid-latitudes and then migrates equatorward/poleward, the sunspot ...

  6. The Relative Phase Asynchronization between Sunspot Numbers and Polar Faculae

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    L. H. Deng; J. Y. Song; Y. Y. Xiang; Y. K. Tang

    2011-09-01

    The monthly sunspot numbers compiled by Temmer et al. and the monthly polar faculae from observations of the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, for the interval of March 1954 to March 1996, are used to investigate the phase relationship between polar faculae and sunspot activity for total solar disk and for both hemispheres in solar cycles 19, 20, 21 and 22. We found that (1) the polar faculae begin earlier than sunspot activity, and the phase difference exhibits a consistent behaviour for different hemispheres in each of the solar cycles, implying that this phenomenon should not be regarded as a stochastic fluctuation; (2) the inverse correlation between polar faculae and sunspot numbers is not only a long-term behaviour, but also exists in short time range; (3) the polar faculae show leads of about 50–71 months relative to sunspot numbers, and the phase difference between them varies with solar cycle; (4) the phase difference value in the northern hemisphere differs from that in the southern hemisphere in a solar cycle, which means that phase difference also existed between the two hemispheres. Moreover, the phase difference between the two hemispheres exhibits a periodical behaviour. Our results seem to support the finding of Hiremath (2010).

  7. The presence of large sunspots near the central solar meridian at the times of major geomagnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Willis

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A further study is made of the validity of a technique developed by the authors to identify historical occurrences of intense geomagnetic storms, which is based on finding approximately coincident observations of sunspots and aurorae recorded in East Asian histories. Previously, the validity of this technique was corroborated using scientific observations of aurorae in Japan during the interval 1957–2004 and contemporaneous white-light images of the Sun obtained by the Royal Greenwich Observatory, the Big Bear Solar Observatory, the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory, and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft. The present investigation utilises a list of major geomagnetic storms in the interval 1868–2008, which is based on the magnitude of the AA* magnetic index, and reconstructed solar images based on the sunspot observations acquired by the Royal Greenwich Observatory during the shorter interval 1874–1976. It is found that a sunspot large enough to be seen with the unaided eye by an "experienced" observer was located reasonably close to the central solar meridian for almost 90% of these major geomagnetic storms. Even an "average" observer would easily achieve a corresponding success rate of 70% and this success rate increases to about 80% if a minority of ambiguous situations are interpreted favourably. The use of information on major geomagnetic storms, rather than modern auroral observations from Japan, provides a less direct corroboration of the technique for identifying historical occurrences of intense geomagnetic storms, if only because major geomagnetic storms do not necessarily produce auroral displays over East Asia. Nevertheless, the present study provides further corroboration of the validity of the original technique for identifying intense geomagnetic storms. This additional corroboration of the original technique is important because early unaided-eye observations of sunspots and aurorae provide the only

  8. Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle: Current Trends and Future Prospects

    CERN Document Server

    Nandy, Dibyendu

    2011-01-01

    The magnetic cycle of the Sun, as manifested in the cyclic appearance of sunspots, significantly influences our space environment and space-based technologies by generating what is now termed as space weather. Long-term variation in the Sun's magnetic output also influences planetary atmospheres and climate through modulation of solar irradiance. Here, I summarize the current state of understanding of this magnetic cycle, highlighting important observational constraints, detailing the kinematic dynamo modeling approach and commenting on future prospects.

  9. Reconstructing the 11-year solar cycle length from cosmogenic radionuclides for the last 600 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Emma; Adolphi, Florian; Mekhaldi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund

    2017-04-01

    The cyclic behavior of the solar magnetic field has been known for centuries and the 11-year solar cycle is one of the most important features directly visible on the solar disc. Using sunspot records it is evident that the length of this cycle is variable. A hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the average solar activity level and the solar cycle length has been put forward (e.g. Friis-Christensen & Lassen, 1991), indicating longer solar cycles during periods of low solar activity and vice versa. So far, studies of the behavior of the 11-year solar cycle have largely been limited for the last 4 centuries where observational sunspot data are available. However, cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 10Be and 14C from ice cores and tree rings allow an assessment of the strength of the open solar magnetic field due to its shielding influence on galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. Similarly, very strong solar storms can leave their imprint in cosmogenic radionuclide records via solar proton-induced direct production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the Earth atmosphere. Here, we test the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between solar cycle length and the longer-term solar activity level by using cosmogenic radionuclide records as a proxy for solar activity. Our results for the last six centuries suggest significant solar cycle length variations that could exceed the range directly inferred from sunspot records. We discuss the occurrence of SPEs within the 11-year solar cycle from a radionuclide perspective, specifically the largest one known yet, at AD 774-5 (Mekhaldi et al., 2015). References: Friis-Christensen, E. & Lassen, K. Length of the solar-cycle - An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254, 698-700, doi:10.1126/science.254.5032.698 (1991). Mekhaldi, F., Muscheler, R., Adolphi, F., Aldahan, A., Beer, J., McConnell, J. R., Possnert, G., Sigl, M., Svensson, A., Synal, H. A., Welten, K. C. & Woodruff, T. E

  10. Solar cycle 25: another moderate cycle?

    CERN Document Server

    Cameron, Robert H; Schuessler, Manfred

    2016-01-01

    Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation value for the dipole moment around 2020 $(2.5\\pm1.1\\,$G) is comparable to that observed at the end of cycle 23 (about $2\\,$G). The empirical correlation between the dipole moment during solar minimum and the strength of the subsequent cycle thus suggests that cycle 25 will be of moderate amplitude, not much higher than that of the current cycle. However, the intrinsic uncertainty of such predictions resulting from the random scatter of the source properties is considerable and fundamentally limits the reliability with which such predictions can be made before activity minimum is reached.

  11. A solar cycle of spacecraft anomalies due to internal charging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. L. Wrenn

    Full Text Available It is important to appreciate how the morphology of internal charging of spacecraft systems, due to penetrating electrons, differs from that of the more common surface charging, due to electrons with lower energy. A specific and recurrent anomaly on a geostationary communication satellite has been tracked for ten years so that solar cycle and seasonal dependencies can be clearly established. Concurrent measurements of sunspot number, solar wind speed and 2-day >2 MeV electron fluence are presented to highlight pertinent space weather relationships, and the importance of understanding the complex particle interaction processes involved.

    Key words. Magnetospheric physics (energetic particles; trapped; solar wind – magnetosphere interactions – space plasma physics (spacecraft sheaths, wakes, charging

  12. SOLAR CYCLE VARIATION OF THE INTER-NETWORK MAGNETIC FIELD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Chunlan; Wang, Jingxiu, E-mail: cljin@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2015-06-20

    The solar inter-network magnetic field is the weakest component of solar magnetism, but it contributes most of the solar surface magnetic flux. The study of its origin has been constrained by the inadequate tempospatial resolution and sensitivity of polarization observations. With dramatic advances in spatial resolution and detecting sensitivity, the solar spectropolarimetry provided by the Solar Optical Telescope on board Hinode in an interval from the solar minimum to maximum of cycle 24 opens an unprecedented opportunity to study the cyclic behavior of the solar inter-network magnetic field. More than 1000 Hinode magnetograms observed from 2007 January to 2014 August are selected in the study. It has been found that there is a very slight correlation between sunspot number and magnetic field at the inter-network flux spectrum. From solar minimum to maximum of cycle 24, the flux density of the solar inter-network field is invariant, at 10 ± 1 G. The observations suggest that the inter-network magnetic field does not arise from flux diffusion or flux recycling of solar active regions, thereby indicating the existence of a local small-scale dynamo. Combining the full-disk magnetograms observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager and the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager in the same period, we find that the area ratio of the inter-network region to the full disk of the Sun apparently decreases from solar minimum to maximum but always exceeds 60%, even in the phase of solar maximum.

  13. Seasonal, Diurnal, and Solar-Cycle Variations of Electron Density at Two West Africa Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Ouattara

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyse the variability of foF2 at two West Africa equatorial ionization anomaly stations (Ouagadougou and Dakar during three solar cycles (from cycle 20 to cycle 22, that is, from 1966 to 1998 for Ouagadougou and from 1971 to 1997 for Dakar. We examine the effect of the changing levels of solar extreme ultraviolet radiation with sunspot number. The study shows high correlation between foF2 and sunspot number (Rz. The correlation coefficient decreases from cycle 20 to cycle 21 at both stations. From cycle 21 to cycle 22 it decreases at Ouagadougou station and increases at Dakar station. The best correlation coefficient, 0.990, is obtained for Dakar station during solar cycle 22. The seasonal variation displays equinoctial peaks that are asymmetric between March and September. The percentage deviations of monthly average data from one solar cycle to another display variability with respect to solar cycle phase and show solar ultraviolet radiation variability with solar cycle phase. The diurnal variation shows a noon bite out with a predominant late-afternoon peak except during the maximum phase of the solar cycle. The diurnal Ouagadougou station foF2 data do not show a significant difference between the increasing and decreasing cycle phases, while Dakar station data do show it, particularly for cycle 21. The percentage deviations of diurnal variations from solar-minimum conditions show more ionosphere during solar cycle 21 at both stations for all three of the other phases of the solar cycle. There is no significant variability of ionosphere during increasing and decreasing solar cycle phases at Ouagadougou station, but at Dakar station there is a significant variability of ionosphere during these two solar-cycle phases.

  14. A New Challenge to Solar Dynamo Models from Helioseismic Observations: The Latitudinal Dependence of the Progression of the Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoniello, R.; Tripathy, S. C.; Jain, K.; Hill, F.

    2016-09-01

    The onset of the solar cycle at mid-latitudes, the slowdown in the drift of sunspots toward the equator, the tail-like attachment, and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of minimum activity are delicate issues in models of the αΩ dynamo wave and the flux transport dynamo. Very different parameter values produce similar results, making it difficult to understand the origin of the properties of these solar cycles. We use helioseismic data from the Global Oscillation Network Group to investigate the progression of the solar cycle as observed in intermediate-degree global p-mode frequency shifts at different latitudes and subsurface layers, from the beginning of solar cycle 23 up to the maximum of the current solar cycle. We also analyze those for high-degree modes in each hemisphere obtained through the ring-diagram technique of local helioseismology. The analysis highlights differences in the progression of the cycle below 15° compared to higher latitudes. While the cycle starts at mid-latitudes and then migrates equatorward/poleward, the sunspot eruptions of the old cycle are still ongoing below 15° latitude. This prolonged activity causes a delay in the onset of the cycle and an overlap of successive cycles, whose extent differs in the two hemispheres. Then the activity level rises faster, reaching a maximum characterized by a single-peak structure as opposed to the double peak at higher latitudes. Afterwards the descending phase shows up with a slower decay rate. The latitudinal properties of the progression of the solar cycle highlighted in this study provide useful constraints for discerning among the multitude of solar dynamo models.

  15. The Minimum of Solar Cycle 23: As Deep as It Could Be?

    CERN Document Server

    Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Longcope, Dana W; Tlatov, Andrey G; Pevtsov, Alexei A; Balmaceda, Laura A; DeLuca, Edward E; Martens, Petrus C H

    2015-01-01

    In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our approach assumes that the statistical properties of sunspots are completely determined by the strength of the underlying large-scale field and have no additional time dependencies. We use the amplitude of the cycle at any given moment (something we refer to as activity level) as a proxy for the strength of this deep-seated magnetic field. We find that the sunspot size distribution is composed of two populations: one population of groups and active regions and a second population of pores and ephemeral regions. When fits are performed at periods of different activity level, only the statistical properties of the former population, the active regions, is found to vary. Finally, we study the relative contribution of each component (small-scale versus large-scale) to solar mag...

  16. A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hathaway, David H.

    2012-01-01

    The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2012. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

  17. Acoustic absorption by sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, D. C.; Labonte, B. J.; Duvall, T. L., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The paper presents the initial results of a series of observations designed to probe the nature of sunspots by detecting their influence on high-degree p-mode oscillations in the surrounding photosphere. The analysis decomposes the observed oscillations into radially propagating waves described by Hankel functions in a cylindrical coordinate system centered on the sunspot. From measurements of the differences in power between waves traveling outward and inward, it is demonstrated that sunspots appear to absorb as much as 50 percent of the incoming acoustic waves. It is found that for all three sunspots observed, the amount of absorption increases linearly with horizontal wavenumber. The effect is present in p-mode oscillations with wavelengths both significantly larger and smaller than the diameter of the sunspot umbrae. Actual absorption of acoustic energy of the magnitude observed may produce measurable decreases in the power and lifetimes of high-degree p-mode oscillations during periods of high solar activity.

  18. Sunspot Rotation as a Driver of Major Solar Eruptions in NOAA Active Region 12158

    CERN Document Server

    Vemareddy, P; Ravindra, B

    2016-01-01

    We studied the developing conditions of sigmoid structure under the influence of magnetic non-potential characteristics of a rotating sunspot in the active region (AR) 12158. Vector magnetic field measurements from Helioseismic Magnetic Imager and coronal EUV observations from Atmospheric Imaging Assembly reveal that the erupting inverse-S sigmoid had roots in the location of the rotating sunspot. Sunspot rotates at a rate of 0-5deg/h with increasing trend in the first half followed by a decrease. Time evolution of many non-potential parameters had a well correspondence with the sunspot rotation. The evolution of the AR magnetic structure is approximated by a time series of force free equilibria. The NLFFF magnetic structure around the sunspot manifests the observed sigmoid structure. Field lines from the sunspot periphery constitute the body of the sigmoid and those from interior overly the sigmoid similar to a fluxrope structure. While the sunspot is being rotating, two major CME eruptions occurred in the A...

  19. Dependence of the Sunspot-group Size on the Level of Solar Activity and its Influence on the Calibration of Solar Observers

    CERN Document Server

    Usoskin, I G; Chatzistergos, T

    2016-01-01

    The distribution of the sunspot group size (area) and its dependence on the level of solar activity is studied. It is shown that the fraction of small groups is not constant but decreases with the level of solar activity so that high solar activity is largely defined by big groups. We study the possible influence of solar activity on the ability of a realistic observer to see and report the daily number of sunspot groups. It is shown that the relation between the number of sunspot groups as seen by different observers with different observational acuity thresholds is strongly non-linear and cannot be approximated by the traditionally used linear scaling ($k-$factors). The observational acuity threshold [$A_{\\rm th}$] is considered to quantify the quality of each observer, instead of the traditional relative $k-$factor. A nonlinear $c-$factor based on $A_{\\rm th}$ is proposed, which can be used to correct each observer to the reference conditions. The method is tested on a pair of principal solar observers, Wo...

  20. Commentary on the Liquid Metallic Hydrogen Model of the Sun: Insight Relative to Coronal Holes, Sunspots, and Solar Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robitaille P.-M.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available While mankind will always remain unable to sample the interior of the Sun, the presence of sunspots and coronal holes can provide clues as to its subsurface structure. Insight relative to the solar body can also be gained by recognizing that the Sun must exist in the condensed state and support a discrete lattice structure, as required for the production of its continuous spectrum. In this regard, the layered liquid metallic hydrogen lattice advanced as a condensed model of the Sun (Robitaille P.M. Liquid Metallic Hydrogen: A Building Block for the Liquid Sun. Progr. Phys ., 2011, v. 3, 60–74; Robitaille P.M. Liquid Metallic Hydrogen II: A Critical Assessment of Current and Primordial Helium Levels in Sun. Progr. Phys ., 2013, v. 2, 35–47; Robitaille J.C. and Robitaille P.M. Liquid Metallic Hydrogen III. Intercalation and Lattice Exclusion Versus Gravitational Settling and Their Consequences Relative to Internal Structure, Surface Activity, and Solar Winds in the Sun. Progr. Phys ., 2013, v. 2, in press provides the ability to add structure to the solar interior. This constitutes a significant advantage over the gaseous solar models. In fact, a layered liquid metallic hydrogen lattice and the associated intercalation of non-hydrogen elements can help to account for the position of sunspots and coronal holes. At the same time, this model provides a greater understanding of the mechanisms which drive solar winds and activity.

  1. Can the solar cycle and climate synchronize the snowshoe hare cycle in Canada? Evidence from tree rings and ice cores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinclair, A R; Gosline, J M; Holdsworth, G; Krebs, C J; Boutin, S; Smith, J N; Boonstra, R; Dale, M

    1993-02-01

    Dark marks in the rings of white spruce less than 50 yr old in Yukon, Canada, are correlated with the number of stems browsed by snowshoe hares. The frequency of these marks is positively correlated with the density of hares in the same region. The frequency of marks in trees germinating between 1751 and 1983 is positively correlated with the hare fur records of the Hudson Bay Company. Both tree marks and hare numbers are correlated with sunspot numbers, and there is a 10-yr periodicity in the correlograms. Phase analysis shows that tree marks and sunspot numbers have periods of nearly constant phase difference during the years 1751-1787, 1838-1870, and 1948 to the present, and these periods coincide with those of high sunspot maxima. The nearly constant phase relations between the annual net snow accumulation on Mount Logan and (1) tree mark ratios, (2) hare fur records before about 1895, and (3) sunspot number during periods of high amplitude in the cycles suggest there is a solar cycle-climate-hare population and tree mark link. We suggest four ways of testing this hypothesis.

  2. A Statistical Analysis of Solar Surface Indices Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

    CERN Document Server

    Goker, Umit Deniz; Nutku, Ferhat; Priyal, Muthu

    2016-01-01

    Variations of total solar irradiance (TSI), magnetic field, Ca II K-flux, faculae and plage areas due to the number and the type of sunspots/sunspot groups (SGs) are well established by using ground based data from various centers such as Solar Irradiance Platform, Stanford Data (SFO), Kodaikanal data (KKL) and National Geographical Data Center (NGDC) Homepage, respectively. We applied time series analysis for extracting the data over the descending phases of solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23, and the ascending phases 22 and 23 of SACs, and analyzed the selected data using the Python programming language. Our detailed analysis results suggest that there is a stronger correlation between solar surface indices and the changes in the relative portion of the small and large SGs. This somewhat unexpected finding suggest that plage regions decreased in a lower values in spite of the higher number of large SGs in SAC 23 while Ca II K-flux did not decrease by large amount or it was comparable with SAC 22 for...

  3. North-South Asymmetry in Rieger-type Periodicity during Solar Cycles 19-23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgenashvili, Eka; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil; Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis; Dikpati, Mausumi; McIntosh, Scott W.

    2017-08-01

    Rieger-type periodicity has been detected in different activity indices over many solar cycles. It was recently shown that the periodicity correlates with solar activity having a shorter period during stronger cycles. Solar activity level is generally asymmetric between northern and southern hemispheres, which could suggest the presence of a similar behavior in the Rieger-type periodicity. We analyze the sunspot area/number and the total magnetic flux data for northern and southern hemispheres during solar cycles 19-23, which had remarkable north-south asymmetry. Using wavelet analysis of sunspot area and number during the north-dominated cycles (19-20), we obtained the periodicity of 160-165 days in the stronger northern hemisphere and 180-190 days in the weaker southern hemisphere. On the other hand, south-dominated cycles (21-23) display the periodicity of 155-160 days in the stronger southern hemisphere and 175-188 days in the weaker northern hemisphere. Therefore, the Rieger-type periodicity has the north-south asymmetry in sunspot area/number data during solar cycles with strong hemispheric asymmetry. We suggest that the periodicity is caused by magnetic Rossby waves in the internal dynamo layer. Using the dispersion relation of magnetic Rossby waves and observed Rieger periodicity, we estimated the magnetic field strength in the layer as 45-49 kG in more active hemispheres (north during cycles 19-20 and south during cycles 21-23) and 33-40 kG in weaker hemispheres. The estimated difference in the hemispheric field strength is around 10 kG, which provides a challenge for dynamo models. Total magnetic flux data during cycles 20-23 reveals no clear north-south asymmetry, which needs to be explained in the future.

  4. Sub- and Quasi-Centurial Cycles in Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Data Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komitov, B.; Sello, S.; Duchlev, P.; Dechev, M.; Penev, K.; Koleva, K.

    2016-07-01

    The subject of this paper is the existence and stability of solar cycles with durations in the range of 20-250 years. Five types of data series are used: 1) the Zurich series (1749-2009 AD), the mean annual International sunspot number Ri, 2) the Group sunspot number series Rh (1610-1995 AD), 3) the simulated extended sunspot number from Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) (1090-2002 AD), 4) the simulated extended geomagnetic aa-index from ESAI (1099-2002 AD), 5) the Meudon filament series (1919-1991 AD). Two principally independent methods of time series analysis are used: the T-R periodogram analysis (both in standard and ``scanning window'' regimes) and the wavelet-analysis. The obtained results are very similar. A strong cycle with a mean duration of 55-60 years is found to exist in all series. On the other hand, a strong and stable quasi 110-120 years and ˜200-year cycles are obtained in all of these series except in the Ri one. The high importance of the long term solar activity dynamics for the aims of solar dynamo modeling and predictions is especially noted.

  5. Sunspot Rotation as a Driver of Major Solar Eruptions in the NOAA Active Region 12158

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vemareddy, P.; Cheng, X.; Ravindra, B.

    2016-09-01

    We studied the development conditions of sigmoid structure under the influence of the magnetic non-potential characteristics of a rotating sunspot in the active region (AR) 12158. Vector magnetic field measurements from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager and coronal EUV observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly reveal that the erupting inverse-S sigmoid had roots at the location of the rotating sunspot. The sunspot rotates at a rate of 0°-5° h-1 with increasing trend in the first half followed by a decrease. The time evolution of many non-potential parameters had a good correspondence with the sunspot rotation. The evolution of the AR magnetic structure is approximated by a time series of force-free equilibria. The non-linear force-free field magnetic structure around the sunspot manifests the observed sigmoid structure. Field lines from the sunspot periphery constitute the body of the sigmoid and those from the interior overlie the sigmoid, similar to a flux rope structure. While the sunspot was rotating, two major coronal mass ejection eruptions occurred in the AR. During the first (second) event, the coronal current concentrations were enhanced (degraded), consistent with the photospheric net vertical current; however, magnetic energy was released during both cases. The analysis results suggest that the magnetic connections of the sigmoid are driven by the slow motion of sunspot rotation, which transforms to a highly twisted flux rope structure in a dynamical scenario. Exceeding the critical twist in the flux rope probably leads to the loss of equilibrium, thus triggering the onset of the two eruptions.

  6. Letter to the EditorOn the use of the sunspot number for the estimation of past solar and upper atmosphere conditions from historical and modern auroral observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M Vaquero

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available In this short contribution the use of different sunspot numbers for the estimation of past solar and upper atmosphere conditions from historical and modern auroral observations realised by Schröder et al. (2004 is analysed. Moreover, some comments are made on the relationships between mean annual visual observations of the auroras at middle latitudes of Europe and the mean annual sunspot number during 1780–1829. Keywords. Atmospheric composition and structure (Airglow and aurora – Magnetospheric physics (Auroral phenomena, solar wind-magnetosphere interactions – History of geophysics (Solar-planetary relationship

  7. On-line Tools for Solar Data Compiled at the Debrecen Observatory and Their Extensions with the Greenwich Sunspot Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranyi, T.; Győri, L.; Ludmány, A.

    2016-08-01

    The primary task of the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO) has been the most detailed, reliable, and precise documentation of the solar photospheric activity since 1958. This long-term effort resulted in various solar catalogs based on ground-based and space-borne observations. A series of sunspot databases and on-line tools were compiled at DHO: the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD, 1974 -), the dataset based on the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) called SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data (SDD, 1996 - 2010), and the dataset based on the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) called SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data (HMIDD, 2010 - ). User-friendly web-presentations and on-line tools were developed to visualize and search data. As a last step of the compilation, the revised version of Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR, 1874 - 1976) catalog was converted to DPD format, and a homogeneous sunspot database covering more than 140 years was created. The database of images for the GPR era was completed with the full-disc drawings of the Hungarian historical observatories Ógyalla and Kalocsa (1872 - 1919) and with the polarity drawings of Mount Wilson Observatory. We describe the main characteristics of the available data and on-line tools.

  8. On-line Tools for Solar Data Compiled at the Debrecen Observatory and Their Extensions with the Greenwich Sunspot Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranyi, T.; Győri, L.; Ludmány, A.

    2016-11-01

    The primary task of the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO) has been the most detailed, reliable, and precise documentation of the solar photospheric activity since 1958. This long-term effort resulted in various solar catalogs based on ground-based and space-borne observations. A series of sunspot databases and on-line tools were compiled at DHO: the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD, 1974 -), the dataset based on the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) called SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data (SDD, 1996 - 2010), and the dataset based on the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) called SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data (HMIDD, 2010 - ). User-friendly web-presentations and on-line tools were developed to visualize and search data. As a last step of the compilation, the revised version of Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR, 1874 - 1976) catalog was converted to DPD format, and a homogeneous sunspot database covering more than 140 years was created. The database of images for the GPR era was completed with the full-disc drawings of the Hungarian historical observatories Ógyalla and Kalocsa (1872 - 1919) and with the polarity drawings of Mount Wilson Observatory. We describe the main characteristics of the available data and on-line tools.

  9. On-line Tools for Solar Data Compiled in the Debrecen Observatory and their Extensions with the Greenwich Sunspot Data

    CERN Document Server

    Baranyi, T; Ludmán, A

    2016-01-01

    The primary task of the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory (DHO) has been the most detailed, reliable, and precise documentation of the solar photospheric activity since 1958. This long-term effort resulted in various solar catalogs based on ground-based and space-borne observations. A series of sunspot databases and on-line tools were compiled at DHO: the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD, 1974--), the dataset based on the {\\it Michelson Doppler Imager} (MDI) of the {\\it Solar and Heliospheric Observatory} (SOHO) called SOHO/MDI--Debrecen Data (SDD, 1996--2010), and the dataset based on the {\\it Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager} (HMI) of the {\\it Solar Dynamics Observatory} (SDO) called SDO/HMI--Debrecen Data (HMIDD, 2010--). User-friendly web-presentations and on-line tools were developed to visualize and search data. As a last step of compilation, the revised version of Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR, 1874--1976) catalog was converted to DPD format, and a homogeneous sunspot database covering ...

  10. Radio Imaging Observations of Solar Activity Cycle and Its Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibasaki, K.

    2011-12-01

    The 24th solar activity cycle has started and relative sunspot numbers are increasing. However, their rate of increase is rather slow compared to previous cycles. Active region sizes are small, lifetime is short, and big (X-class) flares are rare so far. We study this anomalous situation using data from Nobeyama Radioheliograph (NoRH). Radio imaging observations have been done by NoRH since 1992. Nearly 20 years of daily radio images of the Sun at 17 GHz are used to synthesize a radio butterfly diagram. Due to stable operation of the instrument and a robust calibration method, uniform datasets are available covering the whole period of observation. The radio butterfly diagram shows bright features corresponding to active region belts and their migration toward low latitude as the solar cycle progresses. In the present solar activity cycle (24), increase of radio brightness is delayed and slow. There are also bright features around both poles (polar brightening). Their brightness show solar cycle dependence but peaks around solar minimum. Comparison between the last minimum and the previous one shows decrease of its brightness. This corresponds to weakening of polar magnetic field activity between them. In the northern pole, polar brightening is already weakened in 2011, which means it is close to solar maximum in the northern hemisphere. Southern pole does not show such feature yet. Slow rise of activity in active region belt, weakening of polar activity during the minimum, and large north-south asymmetry in polar activity imply that global solar activity and its synchronization are weakening.

  11. Direct measurement results of the time lag of LOS-velocity oscillations between two heights in solar faculae and sunspots

    CERN Document Server

    Kobanov, Nikolai; Kustov, Arseniy; Chupin, Sergey; Chelpanov, Andrey; 10.1007/s11207-013-0247-2

    2013-01-01

    We present an investigation of line-of-sight (LOS) velocity oscillations in solar faculae and sunspots. To study the phase relations between chromosphere and photosphere oscillations of the LOS velocity, we measured the time lag of the chromospheric signal relative to the photospheric one for several faculae and sunspots in a set of spectral line pairs. The measured time lags are different for different objects. The mean measured delay between the oscillations in the five-minute band in faculae is 50s for the SiI 10827{\\AA}-HeI 10830{\\AA} pair; for the pair FeI 6569{\\AA}-H-alpha 6563{\\AA} the mean delay is 20s; for the pair FeI 4551{\\AA}-BaII 4554{\\AA} the mean delay is 7s; for the pair SiI 8536{\\AA}-CaII 8542{\\AA} the mean delay is 20s. For the oscillations in the three-minute band in sunspot umbrae the mean delay is 55s for the SiI 10827{\\AA}-HeI 10830{\\AA} pair; for the Fe I 6569{\\AA}-H-alpha 6563{\\AA} pair it was not possible to determine the delay; for the FeI 4551{\\AA}-BaII 4554{\\AA} pair the mean delay...

  12. Development of a Code to Analyze the Solar White-Light Images from the Kodaikanal Observatory: Detection of Sunspots, Computation of Heliographic Coordinates and Area

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ragadeepika Pucha; K. M. Hiremath; Shashanka R. Gurumath

    2016-03-01

    Sunspots are the most conspicuous aspects of the Sun. They have a lower temperature, as compared to the surrounding photosphere; hence, sunspots appear as dark regions on a brighter background. Sunspots cyclically appear and disappear with a 11-year periodicity and are associated with a strong magnetic field $(\\sim 10^3$ G) structure. Sunspots consist of a dark umbra, surrounded by a lighter penumbra. Study of umbra–penumbra area ratio can be used to give a rough idea as to how the convective energy of the Sun is transported from the interior, as the sunspot’s thermal structure is related to this convective medium. An algorithm to extract sunspots from the white-light solar images obtained from the Kodaikanal Observatory is proposed. This algorithm computes the radius and center of the solar disk uniquely and removes the limb darkening from the image. It also separates the umbra and computes the position as well as the area of the sunspots. The estimated results are compared with the Debrecen photoheliographic results. It is shown that both area and position measurements are in quite good agreement.

  13. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

    2015-09-01

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  14. On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id [Astronomy Research Division and Bosscha Observatory, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia); Arif, Johan [Geology Research Division, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia); Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi [Astronomy Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia)

    2015-09-30

    Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

  15. THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 23: AS DEEP AS IT COULD BE?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Longcope, Dana W. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Senkpeil, Ryan R. [Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Tlatov, Andrey G. [Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Kislovodsk 357700 (Russian Federation); Pevtsov, Alexei A. [National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Balmaceda, Laura A. [Institute for Astronomical, Terrestrial and Space Sciences (ICATE-CONICET), San Juan (Argentina); DeLuca, Edward E. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Martens, Petrus C. H., E-mail: munoz@solar.physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States)

    2015-05-01

    In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our approach assumes that the statistical properties of sunspots are completely determined by the strength of the underlying large-scale field and have no additional time dependencies. We use the amplitude of the cycle at any given moment (something we refer to as activity level) as a proxy for the strength of this deep-seated magnetic field. We find that the sunspot size distribution is composed of two populations: one population of groups and active regions and a second population of pores and ephemeral regions. When fits are performed at periods of different activity level, only the statistical properties of the former population, the active regions, are found to vary. Finally, we study the relative contribution of each component (small-scale versus large-scale) to solar magnetism. We find that when hemispheres are treated separately, almost every one of the past 12 solar minima reaches a point where the main contribution to magnetism comes from the small-scale component. However, due to asymmetries in cycle phase, this state is very rarely reached by both hemispheres at the same time. From this we infer that even though each hemisphere did reach the magnetic baseline, from a heliospheric point of view the minimum of cycle 23 was not as deep as it could have been.

  16. Short Periodicities in Latitudinal Variation of Sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Bang-Yeop; Chang, Heon-Young

    2011-06-01

    The latitudinal variation of sunspots appearing during the period from 1874 to 2009 has been studied in terms of centerof- latitude (COL). The butterfly diagram has been used to study the evolution of the magnetic field and the dynamics at the bottom of the solar convection zone. Short-term periodicities have been of particular interest, in that they are somehow related to the structure and dynamics of the solar interior. We thus have focused our investigation on shortterm periodicities. We first calculated COL by averaging the latitude of sunspots with the weight function in area. Then, we analyzed the time series of COL using the wavelet transform technique. We found that a periodicity of ~5 years is the most dominant feature in the time series of COL, with the exception of the ~11 year solar cycle itself. This periodicity can be easily understood by considering small humps between the minima in the area-weighted butterfly diagram. However, we find that periodicities of ~1.3 (0.064), ~1.5 (0.056), or ~1.8 (0.046) years ( 1/ month ), which have been previously suggested as evidence of links between the changing structure of the sunspot zone and the tachocline rotation rate oscillations, are insignificant and inconsistent. We therefore conclude that the only existing short-term periodicity is of ~5 years, and that periodicities of ~1.3, ~1.5, or ~1.8 years are likely to be artifacts due to random noise of small sunspots.

  17. The internal solar angular velocity: Theory, observations and relationship to solar magnetic fields; Proceedings of the Eighth Summer Symposium, Sunspot, NM, Aug. 11-14, 1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durney, Bernard R.; Sofia, Sabatino

    The conference presents papers on observations of solar p-mode rotational splittings, observations of surface velocity fields, the equatorial rotation rate in the solar convective zone, chromospheric activity in open clusters, and solar rotation variations from sunspot group statistics. Other topics include adiabatic nonradial oscillations of a differentially rotating star, a spherical harmonic decomposition technique for analyzing steady photospheric flows, turbulent transport in the radiative zone of a rotating star, and the generation of magnetic fields in the sun. Consideration is also given to magnetic fields and the rotation of the solar convection zone, the hydrostatic adjustment time of the solar subconvective layer, models for a differentially rotating solar-convection zone, and horizontal Reynolds stress and the radial rotation law of the sun.

  18. Characteristics of the 23 Cycle of Solar Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Tamara

    The aim of the present study is to search for special features of the 23-d cycle of solar activity. We present results of our analysis of spectra of sunspot number W for the time intervals of spaced measurements 1964-1997 and 1996-2005 and of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), the solar wind velocity (V) calculated on the basis of measurements near the Earth's orbit for the period 1964-1997. A method of non-linear spectral analysis named by us the Method of Global Minimum (MGM) is used. MGM allows self-consistentidentification of trends from data and non-stationary sinusoids and estimation of statistical significance of spectral components. The IMF and W spectra for the period 1964-1997 both show the solar cycle at T=10.8 yr and its higher harmonics. But spectrum of sunspot number W for the period 1996-2005 (time interval of the 23-d cycle) has not spectral component at T=10.8 yr (at confidence statistical level 95%); however, this spectrum has higher harmonics of the 10.8-yr cycle (such as sinusoid with T=146.2 day). The most powerful spectral line from the spectrum (1996-2005) has period T=16.56 yr. We show that tide forces of the planets can be a cause of periodical changes in the analyzed data. Periods of perturbed tide forces of external planets and their higher harmonics (connected with motion of the Sun relative to the mass center of the solar system) are detected in the spectra. In particular, all periods from the spectrum of W for the period 1996-2005 can be interpreted as periods of perturbed tide force of a system: Sun - a pair Jupiter-Uranus: T=16.56 yr is period of perturbed tide force of pair Jupiter-Uranus (1st planet determines shift of mass center of the Sun relative to the mass center of a system the Sunthe 1st planet; the 2nd planet determines perturbed tide force acting on the Sun). The fact that spectrum of W for the period 1996-2005 has the most power spectral components at T=16.56 and T=1.83 yr (9 harmonics of the 16.56-yr cycle

  19. On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.

    2013-01-01

    We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is “statistically significant.” On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are “insignificant.” Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

  20. Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability of Some Chromospheric Emission Lines Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göker, Ü. D.; Gigolashvili, M. Sh.; Kapanadze, N.

    2017-02-01

    A study of variations of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the wavelength ranges 121.5 nm-300.5 nm for the period 1981-2009 is presented. We used various data for ultraviolet (UV) spectral lines and international sunspot number (ISSN) from interactive data centers such as SME (NSSDC), UARS (GDAAC), SORCE (LISIRD) and SIDC, respectively. We reduced these data by using the MATLAB software package. In this respect, we revealed negative correlations of intensities of UV (289.5 nm-300.5 nm) spectral lines originating in the solar chromosphere with the ISSN index during the unusually prolonged minimum between the solar activity cycles (SACs) 23 and 24. We also compared our results with the variations of solar activity indices obtained by the ground-based telescopes. Therefore, we found that plage regions decrease while facular areas are increasing in SAC 23. However, the decrease in plage regions is seen in small sunspot groups (SGs), contrary to this, these regions in large SGs are comparable to previous SACs or even larger as is also seen in facular areas. Nevertheless, negative correlations between ISSN and SSI data indicate that these variations are in close connection with the classes of sunspots/SGs, faculae and plage regions. Finally, we applied the time series analysis of spectral lines corresponding to the wavelengths 121.5 nm-300.5 nm and made comparisons with the ISSN data. We found an unexpected increase in the 298.5 nm line for the Fe II ion. The variability of Fe II ion 298.5 nm line is in close connection with the facular areas and plage regions, and the sizes of these solar surface indices play an important role for the SSI variability, as well. So, we compared the connection between the sizes of faculae and plage regions, sunspots/SGs, chemical elements and SSI variability. Our future work will be the theoretical study of this connection and developing of a corresponding model.

  1. MHD waves in sunspots

    CERN Document Server

    Sych, Robert

    2015-01-01

    The review addresses the spatial frequency morphology of sources of sunspot oscillations and waves, including their localization, size, oscillation periods, height localization with the mechanism of cut-off frequency that forms the observed emission variability. Dynamic of sunspot wave processes, provides the information about the structure of wave fronts and their time variations, investigates the oscillation frequency transformation depending on the wave energy is shown. The initializing solar flares caused by trigger agents like magnetoacoustic waves, accelerated particle beams, and shocks are discussed. Special attention is paid to the relation between the flare reconnection periodic initialization and the dynamics of sunspot slow magnetoacoustic waves. A short review of theoretical models of sunspot oscillations is provided.

  2. Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

    1994-01-01

    We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

  3. Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Kurt T.; White, Oran R.

    1994-01-01

    We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

  4. The Mild Space Weather in Solar Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Makela, Pertti; Michalek, Grzegorz

    2015-01-01

    The space weather is extremely mild during solar cycle 24: the number of major geomagnetic storms and high-energy solar energetic particle events are at the lowest since the dawn of the space age. Solar wind measurements at 1 AU using Wind and ACE instruments have shown that there is a significant drop in the density, magnetic field, total pressure, and Alfven speed in the inner heliosphere as a result of the low solar activity. The drop in large space weather events is disproportionately high because the number of energetic coronal mass ejections that cause these events has not decreased significantly. For example, the rate of halo CMEs, which is a good indicator of energetic CMEs, is similar to that in cycle 23, even though the sunspot number has declined by about 40%. The mild space weather seems to be a consequence of the anomalous expansion of CMEs due to the low ambient pressure in the heliosphere. The anomalous expansion results in the dilution of the magnetic contents of CMEs, so the geomagnetic storm...

  5. Rieger-type periodicity during solar cycles 14-24: estimation of dynamo magnetic field strength in the solar interior

    CERN Document Server

    Gurgenashvili, Eka; Kukhianidze, Vasil; Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis; Ramishvili, Giorgi; Shergelashvili, Bidzina; Hanslmeier, Arnold; Poedts, Stefaan

    2016-01-01

    Solar activity undergoes a variation over time scales of several months known as Rieger-type periodicity, which usually occurs near maxima of sunspot cycles. An early analysis showed that the periodicity appears only in some cycles, and is absent in other cycles. But the appearance/absence during different cycles has not been explained. We performed a wavelet analysis of sunspot data from the Greenwich Royal Observatory and the Royal Observatory of Belgium during cycles 14-24. We found that the Rieger-type periods occur in all cycles, but they are cycle-dependent: shorter periods occur during stronger cycles. Our analysis revealed a periodicity of 185-195 days during the weak cycles 14-15 and 24, and a periodicity of 155-165 days during the stronger cycles 16-23. We derived the dispersion relation of the spherical harmonics of the magnetic Rossby waves in the presence of differential rotation and a toroidal magnetic field in the dynamo layer near the base of the convection zone. This showed that the harmonic ...

  6. The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Owens Mathew J.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles. The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4, spanning 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle “4b”. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the “no SC4b” scenario. We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic

  7. The sunspot cycle recorded in the thermoluminescence profile of the GT89/3 Ionian sea core

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cini Castagnoli, G.; Bonino, G.; Taricco, C. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Generale]|[CNR, Turin (Italy). Ist. di Cosmogeofisica

    1997-11-01

    The authors measured the thermoluminescence (TL) depth of the GT89/3 shallow-water Ionian sea core. This profile has been transformed into a time series using the accurate sedimentation rate previously determined by radiometric and tephroanalysis methods. The TL measurements were performed in samples of equal thickness of 2 mm, corresponding to a time interval of 3.096 y. The TL time series spans {approx} 1800 y. The DFT power spectral densities in the decadal periodicity range of this TL series show significant periodicities at 10.7, 11.3 and 12 y closely similar to the periodicities present in the sunspot number series. These results confirm that the TL signal in recent sea sediments faithfully records the solar variability, as we previously proposed.

  8. Sunspot Numbers from ISOON: A Ten-Year Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Balasubramaniam, K S

    2016-01-01

    Sunspot numbers are important tracers of historical solar activity. They are important in the prediction of oncoming solar maximum, in the design of lifetimes of space assets, and in assessing the extent of solar-radiation impact on the space environment. Sunspot numbers were obtained visually from sunspot drawings. The availability of digital images from the US Air Force Improved Solar Optical Observing Network (ISOON) prototype telescope concurrent to observer-dependent sunspot numbers recorded at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) has provided a basis for comparing sunspot numbers determined from the two methods. We compare sunspot numbers from visual and digital methods observed nearly simultaneously. The advantages of digital imagery are illustrated.

  9. Solar Cycle Propagation, Memory, and Prediction: Insights from a Century of Magnetic Proxies

    CERN Document Server

    Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Balmaceda, Laura A; DeLuca, Edward E; 10.1088/2041-8205/767/2/L25

    2013-01-01

    The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal vs.\\ poloidal). Here we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies), to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncor...

  10. In-depth survey of sunspot and active region catalogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, Laure; Clette, Frédéric; Baranyi, Tunde

    2011-08-01

    When consulting detailed photospheric catalogs for solar activity studies spanning long time intervals, solar physicists face multiple limitations in the existing catalogs: finite or fragmented time coverage, limited time overlap between catalogs and even more importantly, a mismatch in contents and conventions. In view of a study of new sunspot-based activity indices, we have conducted a comprehensive survey of existing catalogs. In a first approach, we illustrate how the information from parallel catalogs can be merged to form a much more comprehensive record of sunspot groups. For this, we use the unique Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD), which is already a composite of several ground observatories and SOHO data, and the USAF/Mount Wilson catalog from the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON). We also describe our semi-interactive cross-identification method, which was needed to match the non-overlapping solar active region nomenclature, the most critical and subtle step when working with multiple catalogs. This effort, focused here first on the last two solar cycles, should lead to a better central database collecting all available sunspot group parameters to address future solar cycle studies beyond the traditional sunspot index time series Ri.

  11. Solar storms, cycles and topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lundstedt H.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Solar storms are produced due to plasma processes inside and between coronal loops. These loops are topologically examined using knot and braid theory. Solar cycles are topologically explored with a complex generalization of the three ordinary differential equations studied by Lorenz. By studying the Poincaré map we give numerical evidence that the flow has an attractor with fractal structure. The period is defined as the time needed for a point on a hyperplane to return to the hyperplane again. The periods are distributed in an interval. For large values of the Dynamo number there is a long tail toward long periods and other interesting comet-like features. We also found a relationship between the intensity of a cycle and the length for the previous cycle. Maunder like minima are also appearing. These general relations found for periods can further be physically interpreted with improved helioseismic estimates of the parameters used by the dynamical systems. Solar Dynamic Observatory is expected to offer such improved measurements.

  12. Evolution and Flare Activity of Delta-Sunspots in Cycle 23

    CERN Document Server

    Takizawa, Kan

    2015-01-01

    The emergence and magnetic evolution of solar active regions (ARs) of beta-gamma-delta type, which are known to be highly flare-productive, were studied with the SOHO/MDI data in Cycle 23. We selected 31 ARs that can be observed from their birth phase, as unbiased samples for our study. From the analysis of the magnetic topology (twist and writhe), we obtained the following results. i) Emerging beta-gamma-delta ARs can be classified into three topological types as "quasi-beta", "writhed" and "top-to-top". ii) Among them, the "writhed" and "top-to-top" types tend to show high flare activity. iii) As the signs of twist and writhe agree with each other in most cases of the "writhed" type (12 cases out of 13), we propose a magnetic model in which the emerging flux regions in a beta-gamma-delta AR are not separated but united as a single structure below the solar surface. iv) Almost all the "writhed"-type ARs have downward knotted structures in the mid portion of the magnetic flux tube. This, we believe, is the es...

  13. Recurrence quantification analysis of two solar cycle indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stangalini, Marco; Ermolli, Ilaria; Consolini, Giuseppe; Giorgi, Fabrizio

    2017-02-01

    Solar activity affects the whole heliosphere and near-Earth space environment. It has been reported in the literature that the mechanism responsible for the solar activity modulation behaves like a low-dimensional chaotic system. Studying these kind of physical systems and, in particular, their temporal evolution requires non-linear analysis methods. To this regard, in this work we apply the recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to the study of two of the most commonly used solar cycle indicators; i.e. the series of the sunspot number (SSN), and the radio flux 10.7 cm, with the aim of identifying possible dynamical transitions in the system; a task which is particularly suited to the RQA. The outcome of this analysis reveals the presence of large fluctuations of two RQA measures: namely the determinism and the laminarity. In addition, large differences are also seen between the evolution of the RQA measures of the SSN and the radio flux. That suggests the presence of transitions in the dynamics underlying the solar activity. Besides it also shows and quantifies the different nature of these two solar indices. Furthermore, in order to check whether our results are affected by dataartefacts, we have also applied the RQA to both the recently recalibrated SSN series and the previous one, unveiling the main differences between the two data sets. The results are discussed in light of the recent literature on the subject.

  14. Rieger-type periodicities on the Sun and the Earth during solar cycles 21 and 22

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, H. G.; Lopes, I.

    2017-03-01

    Rieger-type periods of the magnetic sunspot area time series have been found in two atmospheric time-series variables: neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric potential gradient. The data considered comprises two solar cycles (21, 22) and spans from 1978 to 1990. The study reveals the existence of similar and correlated features in sunspot area as well as neutron counts and atmospheric electric potential gradient, favoring the possibility that the Sun's activity affects the Earth's atmosphere and weather at a time scale between 150-300 days. Moreover, five different Rieger-type periods in the sunspot area time series are found, four of which are detected in the neutron monitor count rate, and three in the atmospheric electric potential gradient. These values are consistent with the periods predicted for stationary solar Rossby waves existing inside the Sun. The possibility is discussed that instabilities on the solar magnetic field caused by solar Rossby waves in the Sun's interior might indirectly be affecting the activity of the heliosphere and the Earth's atmosphere.

  15. Tracing sunspot groups to determine angular momentum transfer on the Sun

    CERN Document Server

    Sudar, D; Ruždjak, D; Brajša, R; Wöohl, H

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to investigate Reynolds stresses and to check if it is plausible that they are responsible for angular momentum transfer toward the solar equator. We also analysed meridional velocity, rotation velocity residuals and correlation between the velocities. We used sunspot groups position measurements from GPR (Greenwich Photographic Result) and SOON/USAF/NOAA (Solar Observing Optical Network/United States Air Force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) databases covering the period from 1878 until 2011. In order to calculate velocities we used daily motion of sunspot groups. The sample was also limited to $\\pm$58\\degr in Central Meridian Distance (CMD) in order to avoid solar limb effects. We mainly investigated velocity patterns depending on solar cycle phase and latitude. We found that meridional motion of sunspot groups is toward the centre of activity from all available latitudes and in all phases of the solar cycle. The range of meridional velocities is $\\pm10$ m s$^{-1}$...

  16. Solar magnetic field studies using the 12 micron emission lines. I - Quiet sun time series and sunspot slices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deming, Drake; Boyle, Robert J.; Jennings, Donald E.; Wiedemann, Gunter

    1988-01-01

    The use of the extremely Zeeman-sensitive IR emission line Mg I, at 12.32 microns, to study solar magnetic fields. Time series observations of the line in the quiet sun were obtained in order to determine the response time of the line to the five-minute oscillations. Based upon the velocity amplitude and average period measured in the line, it is concluded that it is formed in the temperature minimum region. The magnetic structure of sunspots is investigated by stepping a small field of view in linear 'slices' through the spots. The region of penumbral line formation does not show the Evershed outflow common in photospheric lines. The line intensity is a factor of two greater in sunspot penumbrae than in the photosphere, and at the limb the penumbral emission begins to depart from optical thinness, the line source function increasing with height. For a spot near disk center, the radial decrease in absolute magnetic field strength is steeper than the generally accepted dependence.

  17. Digitization of sunspot drawings by Sp\\"orer made in 1861-1894

    CERN Document Server

    Diercke, Andrea; Denker, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    Most of our knowledge about the Sun's activity cycle arises from sunspot observations over the last centuries since telescopes have been used for astronomy. The German astronomer Gustav Sp\\"orer observed almost daily the Sun from 1861 until the beginning of 1894 and assembled a 33-year collection of sunspot data covering a total of 445 solar rotation periods. These sunspot drawings were carefully placed on an equidistant grid of heliographic longitude and latitude for each rotation period, which were then copied to copper plates for a lithographic reproduction of the drawings in astronomical journals. In this article, we describe in detail the process of capturing these data as digital images, correcting for various effects of the aging print materials, and preparing the data for contemporary scientific analysis based on advanced image processing techniques. With the processed data we create a butterfly diagram aggregating sunspot areas, and we present methods to measure the size of sunspots (umbra and penumb...

  18. Helioseismic Solar Cycle Changes and Splitting Coefficients

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S. C. Tripathy; Kiran Jain; A. Bhatnagar

    2000-09-01

    Using the GONG data for a period over four years, we have studied the variation of frequencies and splitting coefficients with solar cycle. Frequencies and even-order coefficients are found to change significantly with rising phase of the solar cycle. We also find temporal variations in the rotation rate near the solar surface.

  19. Reconstruction of spectral solar irradiance since 1700 from simulated magnetograms

    CERN Document Server

    Dasi-Espuig, M; Krivova, N A; Solanki, S K; Unruh, Y C; Yeo, K L

    2016-01-01

    We present a reconstruction of the spectral solar irradiance since 1700 using the SATIRE-T2 (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions for the Telescope era version 2) model. This model uses as input magnetograms simulated with a surface flux transport model fed with semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups. We used statistical relationships between the properties of sunspot group emergence, such as the latitude, area, and tilt angle, and the sunspot cycle strength and phase to produce semi-synthetic sunspot group records starting in the year 1700. The semisynthetic records are fed into a surface flux transport model to obtain daily simulated magnetograms that map the distribution of the magnetic flux in active regions (sunspots and faculae) and their decay products on the solar surface. The magnetic flux emerging in ephemeral regions is accounted for separately based on the concept of extended cycles whose length and amplitude are linked to those of the sunspot cycles through the sunspot number....

  20. Investigations of natural and artificial disturbances in the Earth-ionosphere cavity via VLF radio links for the time span 2009-2015 (sunspot cycle 24)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, Hans; Schwingenschuh, Konrad; Besser, B. P.; Prattes, Gustav; Aydogar; Wolbang, Daniel; Rozhnoi, Alexander; Solovieva, Maria; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Boudjada, Mohammed

    2016-07-01

    We focus on natural disturbances of the sub-ionospheric VLF waveguide in the time span 2009 to 2015 (sunspot cycle 24), i.e. variations in amplitude and phase measurements of the radio paths are considered. In particular we're investigating numerous solar flares (up to X-class), geomagnetic storms and substorms, therefore discuss how to discriminate natural from artificial variations between different transmitters and receivers. Meteorological effects could be important [1] and we estimate the possibility to detect the influence of lithospheric sources in the VLF radio links. As part of the VLF multistation network we're using the single receiver mid-latitude station in Graz, Austria. This facility receives up to 12 transmitter simultaneously (frequency range 10-50 kHz), has 20 sec temporal resolution, and is running continuously since 2009 [2]. We obtain the statistics relating VLF amplitude and phase fluctuations with C/M/X-class solar flares, and characterise night time fluctuations in connection with enhanced particle precipitation in the northern latitude path (Iceland transmitter). The statistics is important to improve the quality of seismo-electromagnetic studies. We conclude that for ionospheric perturbations (D-layer), e.g. solar flares, a reliable real time monitoring service can be established. Atmospheric and lithospheric variations are generally difficult to characterise, it's harder to distinguish between natural and man made signals, therefore - as a future outlook - complementary ground and satellite based measurements can deliver valuable additional information for environmental monitoring. References: [1] A. Rozhnoi et al.: Meteorological effects in the lower ionosphere as based on VLF/LF signal observations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2671-2679, 2014. [2] K. Schwingenschuh et al.: The Graz seismo-electromagnetic VLF facility, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1121-1127, 2011.

  1. Comparison of Total Solar Irradiance with NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph Data in Solar Cycles 22 and 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harrison P.; Branston, Detrick D.; Jones, Patricia B.; Popescu, Miruna D.

    2002-01-01

    An earlier study compared NASA/NSO Spectromagnetograph (SPM) data with spacecraft measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) variations over a 1.5 year period in the declining phase of solar cycle 22. This paper extends the analysis to an eight-year period which also spans the rising and early maximum phases of cycle 23. The conclusions of the earlier work appear to be robust: three factors (sunspots, strong unipolar regions, and strong mixed polarity regions) describe most of the variation in the SPM record, but only the first two are associated with TSI. Additionally, the residuals of a linear multiple regression of TSI against SPM observations over the entire eight-year period show an unexplained, increasing, linear time variation with a rate of about 0.05 W m(exp -2) per year. Separate regressions for the periods before and after 1996 January 01 show no unexplained trends but differ substantially in regression parameters. This behavior may reflect a solar source of TSI variations beyond sunspots and faculae but more plausibly results from uncompensated non-solar effects in one or both of the TSI and SPM data sets.

  2. The study of Equatorial coronal hole during maximum phase of Solar Cycle 21, 22, 23 and 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karna, Mahendra; Karna, Nishu

    2017-08-01

    The 11-year Solar Cycle (SC) is characterized by the periodic change in the solar activity like sunspot numbers, coronal holes, active regions, eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections. We study the relationship between equatorial coronal holes (ECH) and the active regions (AR) as coronal whole positions and sizes change with the solar cycle. We made a detailed study of equatorial coronal hole for four solar maximum: Solar Cycle 21 (1979,1980,1981 and 1982), Solar Cycle 22 (1989, 1990, 1991 and 1992), Solar Cycle 23 (1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002) and Solar Cycle 24 (2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015). We used publically available NOAA solar coronal hole data for cycle 21 and 22. We measured the ECH region using the EIT and AIA synoptic map for cycle 23 and 24. We noted that in two complete 22-year cycle of solar activity, the equatorial coronal hole numbers in SC 22 is greater than SC 21 and similarly, SC 24 equatorial coronal hole numbers are greater than SC 23. Moreover, we also compared the position of AR and ECH during SC 23 and 24. We used daily Solar Region Summary (SRS) data from SWPC/NOAA website. Our goal is to examine the correlation between equatorial holes, active regions, and flares.

  3. Solar Wind Variation with the Cycle

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    I. S. Veselovsky; A. V. Dmitriev; A. V. Suvorova; M. V. Tarsina

    2000-09-01

    The cyclic evolution of the heliospheric plasma parameters is related to the time-dependent boundary conditions in the solar corona. "Minimal" coronal configurations correspond to the regular appearance of the tenuous, but hot and fast plasma streams from the large polar coronal holes. The denser, but cooler and slower solar wind is adjacent to coronal streamers. Irregular dynamic manifestations are present in the corona and the solar wind everywhere and always. They follow the solar activity cycle rather well. Because of this, the direct and indirect solar wind measurements demonstrate clear variations in space and time according to the minimal, intermediate and maximal conditions of the cycles. The average solar wind density, velocity and temperature measured at the Earth's orbit show specific decadal variations and trends, which are of the order of the first tens per cent during the last three solar cycles. Statistical, spectral and correlation characteristics of the solar wind are reviewed with the emphasis on the cycles.

  4. Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 2. Using Geomagnetic and Auroral Data

    CERN Document Server

    Lockwood, Mike; Barnard, Luke A; Scott, Chris J; Usoskin, Ilya G; Nevanlinna, Heikki

    2016-01-01

    We compare four sunspot-number data sequences against geomagnetic and terrestrial auroral observations. The comparisons are made for the original SIDC composite of Wolf-Zurich-International sunspot number [$R_{ISNv1}$], the group sunspot number [$R_{G}$] by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys., 1998), the new "backbone" group sunspot number [$R_{BB}$] by Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., 2016), and the "corrected" sunspot number [$R_{C}$] by Lockwood at al. (J.G.R., 2014). Each sunspot number is fitted with terrestrial observations, or parameters derived from terrestrial observations to be linearly proportional to sunspot number, over a 30-year calibration interval of 1982-2012. The fits are then used to compute test sequences, which extend further back in time and which are compared to $R_{ISNv1}$, $R_{G}$, $R_{BB}$, and $R_{C}$. To study the long-term trends, comparisons are made using averages over whole solar cycles (minimum-to-minimum). The test variations are generated in four ways: i) using the IDV(1d) an...

  5. Secular variation of hemispheric phase differences in the solar cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Zolotova, N V; Arlt, R; Tuominen, I

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the phase difference of the sunspot cycles in the two hemispheres and compare it with the latitudinal sunspot distribution. If the north-south phase difference exhibits a long-term tendency, it should not be regarded as a stochastic phenomenon. We use datasets of historical sunspot records and drawings made by Staudacher, Hamilton, Gimingham, Carrington, Spouml;rer, and Greenwich observers, as well as the sunspot activity during the Maunder minimum reconstructed by Ribes and Nesme-Ribes. We employ cross-recurrence plots to analyse north-south phase differences. We show that during the last 300 years, the persistence of phase-leading in one of the hemispheres exhibits a secular variation. Changes from one hemisphere to the other leading in phase were registered near 1928 and 1968 as well as two historical ones near 1783 and 1875. A long-term anticorrelation between the hemispheric phase differences in the sunspot cycles and the latitudinal distribution of sunspots was traced since 1750.

  6. A Running Average Method for Predicting the Size and Length of a Solar Cycle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhan-Le Du; Hua-Ning Wang; Li-Yun Zhang

    2008-01-01

    The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition (that the correlation becomes stronger) is satisfied, the mean prediction error (16.1) is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied (38.7). This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search.for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4±15.7, and the peak as May 2012± 11 months.

  7. A Note on Solar Cycle Length during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    CERN Document Server

    Vaquero, J M

    2012-01-01

    The growing interest in the "Medieval Climate Anomaly" (MCA) and its possible link to anomalous solar activity has prompted new reconstructions of solar activity based on cosmogenic radionuclides. These proxies however do not sufficiently constrain the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) range, and are often defined at low temporal resolution, inadequate to infer the solar cycle length (SCL). We have reconstructed the SCL (average duration of 10.72 \\pm 0.20 years) during the MCA using observations of naked-eye sunspot and aurora sightings. Thus, solar activity was most probably not exceptionally intense, supporting the view that internal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was the main driver of MCA.

  8. Cyclic Evolution of Sunspots: Gleaning New Results from Old Data

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S. Κ. Solanki; Μ. Fligge; P. Pulkkinen; P. Hoyng

    2000-09-01

    The records of sunspot number, sunspot areas and sunspot locations gathered over the centuries by various observatories are reanalysed with the aim of finding as yet undiscovered connections between the different parameters of the sunspot cycle and the butterfly diagram. Preliminary results of such interrelationships are presented.

  9. On sunspots

    CERN Document Server

    Galilei, Galileo; Reeves, Eileen; Helden, Albert van

    2010-01-01

    Galileo's telescopic discoveries, and especially his observation of sunspots, caused great debate in an age when the heavens were thought to be perfect and unchanging. Christoph Scheiner, a Jesuit mathematician, argued that sunspots were planets or moons crossing in front of the Sun. Galileo, on the other hand, countered that the spots were on or near the surface of the Sun itself, and he supported his position with a series of meticulous observations and mathematical demonstrations that eventually convinced even his rival.  On Sunspots collects the correspondenc

  10. The mutual attraction of magnetic knots. [solar hydromagnetic instability in sunspot regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, E. N.

    1978-01-01

    It is observed that the magnetic knots associated with active regions on the sun have an attraction for each other during the formative period of the active regions, when new magnetic flux is coming to the surface. The attraction disappears when new flux ceases to rise through the surface. Then the magnetic spots and knots tend to come apart, leading to disintegration of the sunspots previously formed. The dissolution of the fields is to be expected, as a consequence of the magnetic repulsion of knots of like polarity and as a consequence of the hydromagnetic exchange instability. The purpose of this paper is to show that the mutual attraction of knots during the formative stages of a sunspot region may be understood as the mutual hydrodynamic attraction of the rising flux tubes. Two rising tubes attract each other, as a consequence of the wake of the leading tube when one is moving behind the other, and as a consequence of the Bernoulli effect when rising side by side.

  11. Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 1. Using Ionosonde Data

    CERN Document Server

    Lockwood, M; Owens, M J; Barnard, L; Willis, D M

    2016-01-01

    More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies $foF2$ had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of $foF2$ to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17 - 21. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - $foF2$ relationship. Over the interval studied here, the ISN, $R$, the backbone group number $Rbb$, and the corrected number $Rc$ largely differ in their allowance for the 'Waldmeier discontinuity' around 1945 (the correction factor for which for $R$, $Rbb$ and $Rc$ is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20%, and explicitly 11.6%). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18 - 21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well,...

  12. EUV Sunspot Plumes Observed with SOHO

    CERN Document Server

    Maltby, P; Brekke, P; Haugan, S V H; Kjeldseth-Moe, O; Wikstøl, O; Rimmele, T R; Wikstøl, O

    1998-01-01

    Bright EUV sunspot plumes have been observed in five out of nine sunspot regions with the Coronal Diagnostic Spectrometer -- CDS on SOHO. In the other four regions the brightest line emissions may appear inside the sunspot but are mainly concentrated in small regions outside the sunspot areas. These results are in contrast to those obtained during the Solar Maximum Mission, but are compatible with the Skylab mission results. The present observations show that sunspot plumes are formed in the upper part of the transition region, occur both in magnetic unipolar-- and bipolar regions, and may extend from the umbra into the penumbra.

  13. Does Building a Relative Sunspot Number Make Sense? A Qualified 'Yes'

    CERN Document Server

    Svalgaard, Leif

    2015-01-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that the number of sunspots per group ('active region') has been decreasing over the last two or three solar cycles and that the classical Relative Sunspot Number (SSN) no longer is a good representation of solar magnetic activity such as revealed by e.g. the F10.7 cm microwave flux. The SSN is derived under the assumption that the number of spots per group is constant (in fact, nominally equal to 10). When this is no longer the case (the ratio is approaching 5, only half of its nominal value) the question arises how to construct a sunspot number series that takes that into account. We propose to harmonize the SSN with the sunspot Group Count that has been shown to follow F10.7 very well, but also to include the day-to-day variations of the spot count in order to preserve both long-term and short-term variability.

  14. Sunspot Numbers and Areas from the Madrid Astronomical Observatory (1876-1986)

    CERN Document Server

    Aparicio, A J P; Carrasco, V M S; Gallego, M C

    2014-01-01

    The solar program of the Astronomical Observatory of Madrid started in 1876. For ten solar cycles, observations were made in this institution to determine sunspot numbers and areas. The program was completed in 1986. The resulting data have been published in various Spanish scientific publications. The metadata allowed four periods of this program (with different observers and instruments) to be identified. In the present work, the published data were retrieved and digitized. Their subsequent analysis showed that most of these data can be considered reliable given their very high correlation with international reference indices (International Sunspot Number, Group Sunspot Number, and Sunspot Area). An abrupt change emerged in the spots/groups ratio in 1946 which lasted until 1972.

  15. Forecasting the solar activity cycle: new insights

    CERN Document Server

    Nandy, Dibyendu

    2013-01-01

    Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a challenging task. This is best achieved through appropriately constrained solar dynamo simulations and as such the first step towards predictions is to understand the underlying physics of the solar dynamo mechanism. In Babcock-Leighton type dynamo models, the poloidal field is generated near the solar surface whereas the toroidal field is generated in the solar interior. Therefore a finite time is necessary for the coupling of the spatially segregated source layers of the dynamo. This time delay introduces a memory in the dynamo mechanism which allows forecasting of future solar activity. Here we discuss how this forecasting ability of the solar cycle is affected by downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux. With significant turbulent pumping the memory of the dynamo is ...

  16. Solar Cycle 24: is the peak coming?

    CERN Document Server

    Sello, Stefano

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle activity forecasting, mainly its magnitude and timing, is an essential issue for numerous scientific and technological applications: in fact, during an active solar period, many strong eruptions occur on the Sun with increasing frequency, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, high velocity solar wind photons and particles, which can severely affect the Earth's ionosphere and the geomagnetic field, with impacts on the low atmosphere. Thus it is very important to develop reliable solar cycle prediction methods for the incoming solar activity. The current solar cycle 24 appeared unusual from many points of view: an unusually extended minimum period, and a global low activity compared to those of the previous three or four cycles. Currently, there are many different evidences that the peak in the northern hemisphere already occurred at 2011.6 but not yet in the southern hemisphere. In this brief note we update the peak prediction and its timing, based on the most recent observations.

  17. Improved SOT (Hinode mission) high resolution solar imaging observations: 2—Photometric properties of sunspot umbral dots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodarzi, H.; Koutchmy, S.; Adjabshirizadeh, A.

    2016-11-01

    The origin and evolution of solar sunspots in deep photospheric layers are not yet well understood. The case of a quasi-symmetric single mature sunspot near the solar centre is selected for analysis. We use the best available observations of the partial Sun free of turbulent Earth atmospheric effects from the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) onboard the Hinode spacecraft, after greatly improving the resolution with an optimum Max-likelihood deconvolution with the Point Spread Function (PSF) deduced in a preceding paper. For several different images both the smearing due to the instrumental diffraction effects (PSF core) and the large angle stray light are removed. The selected iterative processing depends on both the signal/noise ratio and on the desired contrast of the ultimate details under examination. The photometric properties of bright umbral dots (BUDs) are deduced from corrected frames. Calibrated isophote maps are provided to show the intensity variations around each UD across the background umbra and the surrounding photospheric field, including the penumbra. We deduce the typical photometrical properties of bright UDs that populate the whole umbral surface down to sub-pixel scales of 0.05448''. The analysis demonstrates the basic heterogeneous nature of the umbra, similar to a network of minute bright and dark round or elongated cells with a spacing of order of 0.35''. For the first time a complete and detailed map of the color index and temperature deduced from the analysis of deeply corrected continuum images is provided, showing that tiny bright UDs can reach photospheric temperatures and even higher for the peripheral BUDs. In the umbra, there are some very dark small regions with temperatures as low as 3100 K. Close links seemingly exist with bright UDs. Central BUDs and peripheral BUDs are found to have similar properties but significantly different contrast values. Photometric analysis shows a large dispersion that reflects the broad range of

  18. Displacement of large-scale open solar magnetic fields from the zone of active longitudes and the heliospheric storm of November 3-10, 2004: 2. "Explosion" of singularity and dynamics of sunspot formation and energy release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, K. G.

    2010-12-01

    A more detailed scenario of one stage (August-November 2004) of the quasibiennial MHD process "Origination ... and dissipation of the four-sector structure of the solar magnetic field" during the decline phase of cycle 23 has been constructed. It has been indicated that the following working hypothesis on the propagation of an MHD disturbance westward (in the direction of solar rotation) and eastward (toward the zone of active longitudes) with the displacement of the large-scale open solar magnetic field (LOSMF) from this zone can be constructed based on LOSMF model representations and data on sunspot formation, flares, active filaments, and coronal ejections as well as on the estimated contribution of sporadic energy release to the flare luminosity and kinetic energy of ejections: (1) The "explosion" of the LOSMF singularity and the formation in the explosion zone of an anemone active region (AR), which produced the satellite sunspot formation that continued west and east of the "anemone," represented a powerful and energy-intensive source of MHD processes at this stage. (2) This resulted in the origination of two "governing" large-scale MHD processes, which regulated various usual manifestations of solar activity: the fast LOSMF along the neutral line in the solar atmosphere, strongly affecting the zone of active longitudes, and the slow LOSMF in the outer layers of the convection zone. The fronts of these processes were identified by powerful (about 1031 erg) coronal ejections. (3) The collision of a wave reflected from the zone of active longitudes with the eastern front of the hydromagnetic impulse of the convection zone resulted in an increase in LOSMF magnetic fluxes, origination of an active sector boundary in the zone of active longitudes, shear-convergent motions, and generation and destabilization of the flare-productive AR 10696 responsible for the heliospheric storm of November 3-10, 2004.

  19. Solar Cycle in the Heliosphere and Cosmic Rays

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-23

    On the other hand, solar energetic particles can serve as probes for explosive phenomena on the Sun and conditions in the corona and inner...hot parts of the corona even in the absence of active sunspot regions. The likelihood that the solar wind was slow during the Maunder Minimum was...minima” and that “diffusion contributed ≈50 % of the total cosmic proton intensities observed at Earth while particle drifts contributed the other 50

  20. Cycle 23 Variation in Solar Flare Productivity

    CERN Document Server

    Hudson, Hugh; McTiernan, Jim

    2014-01-01

    The NOAA listings of solar flares in cycles 21-24, including the GOES soft X-ray magnitudes, enable a simple determination of the number of flares each flaring active region produces over its lifetime. We have studied this measure of flare productivity over the interval 1975-2012. The annual averages of flare productivity remained approximately constant during cycles 21 and 22, at about two reported M or X flares per region, but then increased significantly in the declining phase of cycle 23 (the years 2004-2005). We have confirmed this by using the independent RHESSI flare catalog to check the NOAA events listings where possible. We note that this measure of solar activity does not correlate with the solar cycle. The anomalous peak in flare productivity immediately preceded the long solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24.

  1. A proposed paradigm for solar cycle dynamics mediated via turbulent pumping of magnetic flux in Babcock-Leighton type solar dynamos

    CERN Document Server

    Hazra, Soumitra

    2016-01-01

    At present, Babcock-Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear as the most promising model for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent upon a single-cell meridional circulation with a deep equatorward component at the base of the Sun's convection zone. However, recent observations suggest that the meridional flow may in fact be very shallow (confined to the top 10 % of the Sun) and more complex than previously thought. Taken together these observations raise serious concerns on the validity of the flux transport paradigm. By accounting for the turbulent pumping of magnetic flux as evidenced in magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar convection, we demonstrate that flux transport dynamo models can generate solar-like magnetic cycles even if the meridional flow is shallow. Solar-like periodic reversals is recovered even when meridional circulation is altogether absent, however, in this case the solar surface m...

  2. The Revised Brussels-Locarno Sunspot Number (1981 - 2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clette, Frédéric; Lefèvre, Laure; Cagnotti, Marco; Cortesi, Sergio; Bulling, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    In 1981, the production of the international sunspot number moved from the Zürich Observatory to the Royal Observatory of Belgium, with a new pilot station: the Specola Solare Ticinese Observatory in Locarno, Switzerland. This marked a profound transition in the history of the sunspot number. Those recent decades are particularly important as they provide the link between recent modern solar indices and the entire sunspot-number series extending back to the eighteenth century. However, large variations have recently been identified in the scale of the sunspot number during this recent time period. Here, we refine the determination of those recent inhomogeneities by reconstructing a new average sunspot-number series [ SN] from a subset of long-duration stations between 1981 and 2015. We also extend this reconstruction by gathering long time series from 35 stations over 1945 - 2015, thus straddling the critical 1981 transition. In both reconstructions, we also derive a parallel group number series [ GN] built by the same method from exactly the same data set. Our results confirm the variable trends associated with drifts of the Locarno pilot station, which start only in 1983. They lead to a fully uniform SN-series over the entire 1945 - 2015 interval. By comparing the new SN- and GN-series, we find that a constant quadratic relation exists between those two indices over Cycles 19 to 23. Comparisons with a few other solar indices additionally validate this and reveal some possible undetected problems in those series. Using this new reference SN, we find that observing stations are surprisingly grouped among distinct subsets that share similar personal k-scaling coefficients. These various results also open the way to implementing a more advanced method for producing the sunspot number in the future.

  3. The Revised Brussels-Locarno Sunspot Number (1981 - 2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clette, Frédéric; Lefèvre, Laure; Cagnotti, Marco; Cortesi, Sergio; Bulling, Andreas

    2016-11-01

    In 1981, the production of the international sunspot number moved from the Zürich Observatory to the Royal Observatory of Belgium, with a new pilot station: the Specola Solare Ticinese Observatory in Locarno, Switzerland. This marked a profound transition in the history of the sunspot number. Those recent decades are particularly important as they provide the link between recent modern solar indices and the entire sunspot-number series extending back to the eighteenth century. However, large variations have recently been identified in the scale of the sunspot number during this recent time period. Here, we refine the determination of those recent inhomogeneities by reconstructing a new average sunspot-number series [SN] from a subset of long-duration stations between 1981 and 2015. We also extend this reconstruction by gathering long time series from 35 stations over 1945 - 2015, thus straddling the critical 1981 transition. In both reconstructions, we also derive a parallel group number series [GN] built by the same method from exactly the same data set. Our results confirm the variable trends associated with drifts of the Locarno pilot station, which start only in 1983. They lead to a fully uniform SN-series over the entire 1945 - 2015 interval. By comparing the new SN- and GN-series, we find that a constant quadratic relation exists between those two indices over Cycles 19 to 23. Comparisons with a few other solar indices additionally validate this and reveal some possible undetected problems in those series. Using this new reference SN, we find that observing stations are surprisingly grouped among distinct subsets that share similar personal k-scaling coefficients. These various results also open the way to implementing a more advanced method for producing the sunspot number in the future.

  4. A solar flare disturbing a light wall above a sunspot light bridge

    CERN Document Server

    Hou, Yijun; Li, Ting; Yang, Shuhong; Li, Leping; Li, Xiaohong

    2016-01-01

    With the high-resolution data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph, we detect a light wall above a sunspot light bridge in the NOAA active region (AR) 12403. In the 1330 A slit-jaw images, the light wall is brighter than the ambient areas while the wall top and base are much brighter than the wall body, and it keeps oscillating above the light bridge. A C8.0 flare caused by a filament activation occurred in this AR with the peak at 02:52 UT on 2015 August 28, and the flare's one ribbon overlapped the light bridge which was the observational base of the light wall. Consequently, the oscillation of the light wall was evidently disturbed. The mean projective oscillation amplitude of the light wall increased from 0.5 Mm to 1.6 Mm before the flare, and decreased to 0.6 Mm after the flare. We suggest that the light wall shares a group of magnetic field lines with the flare loops, which undergo a magnetic reconnection process, and they constitute a coupled system. When the magnetic field lines are pushed u...

  5. Polar Network Index as a magnetic proxy for the solar cycle studies

    CERN Document Server

    Priyal, Muthu; Karak, Bidya Binay; Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Ravindra, B; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai; Singh, Jagdev

    2014-01-01

    The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 year sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which is operating in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have systematic direct measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about mid 1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca K spectroheliograms taken in Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904 - 2007 have now been digitized with the 4k x 4k CCD and have higher resolution (0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical datasets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (Polar Network Index, PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate the PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period of 1976 - 1990. This calibration allows us ...

  6. Wave phenomena in sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löhner-Böttcher, Johannes

    2016-03-01

    Context: The dynamic atmosphere of the Sun exhibits a wealth of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. In the presence of strong magnetic fields, most spectacular and powerful waves evolve in the sunspot atmosphere. Allover the sunspot area, continuously propagating waves generate strong oscillations in spectral intensity and velocity. The most prominent and fascinating phenomena are the 'umbral flashes' and 'running penumbral waves' as seen in the sunspot chromosphere. Their nature and relation have been under intense discussion in the last decades. Aims: Waves are suggested to propagate upward along the magnetic field lines of sunspots. An observational study is performed to prove or disprove the field-guided nature and coupling of the prevalent umbral and penumbral waves. Comprehensive spectroscopic observations at high resolution shall provide new insights into the wave characteristics and distribution across the sunspot atmosphere. Methods: Two prime sunspot observations were carried out with the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory in New Mexico and with the Vacuum Tower Telescope at the Teide Observatory on Tenerife. The two-dimensional spectroscopic observations were performed with the interferometric spectrometers IBIS and TESOS. Multiple spectral lines are scanned co-temporally to sample the dynamics at the photospheric and chromospheric layers. The time series (1 - 2.5 h) taken at high spatial and temporal resolution are analyzed according to their evolution in spectral intensities and Doppler velocities. A wavelet analysis was used to obtain the wave power and dominating wave periods. A reconstruction of the magnetic field inclination based on sunspot oscillations was developed. Results and conclusions: Sunspot oscillations occur continuously in spectral intensity and velocity. The obtained wave characteristics of umbral flashes and running penumbral waves strongly support the scenario of slow-mode magnetoacoustic wave propagation along the

  7. Tests of Sunspot Number Sequences: 4. Discontinuities Around 1946 in Various Sunspot Number and Sunspot-Group-Number Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lockwood, M.; Owens, M. J.; Barnard, L.

    2016-11-01

    We use five test data series to search for, and quantify, putative discontinuities around 1946 in five different annual-mean sunspot-number or sunspot-group-number data sequences. The data series tested are the original and new versions of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number composite [R_{{ISNv1}} and R_{{ISNv2}}] (respectively Clette et al. in Adv. Space Res. 40, 919, 2007 and Clette et al. in The Solar Activity Cycle 35, Springer, New York, 2015); the corrected version of R ISNv1 proposed by Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard ( J. Geophys. Res. 119, 5193, 2014a) [R C]; the new "backbone" group-number composite proposed by Svalgaard and Schatten ( Solar Phys. 291, 2016) [R_{{BB}}]; and the new group-number composite derived by Usoskin et al. ( Solar Phys. 291, 2016) [R_{{UEA}}]. The test data series used are the group-number [NG] and total sunspot area [A G] from the Royal Observatory, Greenwich/Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) photoheliographic data; the Ca K index from the recent re-analysis of Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) spectroheliograms in the Calcium ii K ion line; the sunspot-group-number from the MWO sunspot drawings [N_{{MWO}}]; and the dayside ionospheric F2-region critical frequencies measured by the Slough ionosonde [foF2]. These test data all vary in close association with sunspot numbers, in some cases non-linearly. The tests are carried out using both the before-and-after fit-residual comparison method and the correlation method of Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard, applied to annual mean data for intervals iterated to minimise errors and to eliminate uncertainties associated with the precise date of the putative discontinuity. It is not assumed that the correction required is by a constant factor, nor even linear in sunspot number. It is shown that a non-linear correction is required by RC, R_{BB}, and R_{{ISNv1}}, but not by R_{{ISNv2}} or R_{{UEA}}. The five test datasets give very similar results in all cases. By multiplying the probability

  8. Short-Term Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rate of Sunspot Groups

    CERN Document Server

    Javaraiah, J

    2016-01-01

    We have detected several periodicities in the solar equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups in the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1931-1976, the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) during the period 1977-2014, and the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1974-2014. Our results suggest a ~250-day period in the equatorial rotation rate determined from both the Mt. Wilson Doppler-velocity data and the sunspot-group data during 1986-2007. However, a wavelet analysis reveals that this periodicity appears mostly around 1991 in the velocity data, while it is present in most of the solar cycles covered by the sunspot-group data, mainly near the minimum epochs of the solar cycles. We also found the signature of a period of ~1.4 years period in the velocity data during 1990-1995, and in the equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups mostly around the year 1956. The equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups reveals a strong ~1.6-year periodicity around 1933 and 1955...

  9. Forecasting the Time Series of Sunspot Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, L. A.; Letellier, C.; Maquet, J.

    2008-05-01

    Forecasting the solar cycle is of great importance for weather prediction and environmental monitoring, and also constitutes a difficult scientific benchmark in nonlinear dynamical modeling. This paper describes the identification of a model and its use in the forecasting the time series comprised of Wolf’s sunspot numbers. A key feature of this procedure is that the original time series is first transformed into a symmetrical space where the dynamics of the solar dynamo are unfolded in a better way, thus improving the model. The nonlinear model obtained is parsimonious and has both deterministic and stochastic parts. Monte Carlo simulation of the whole model produces very consistent results with the deterministic part of the model but allows for the determination of confidence bands. The obtained model was used to predict cycles 24 and 25, although the forecast of the latter is seen as a crude approximation, given the long prediction horizon required. As for the 24th cycle, two estimates were obtained with peaks of 65±16 and of 87±13 units of sunspot numbers. The simulated results suggest that the 24th cycle will be shorter and less active than the preceding one.

  10. Origins of the Wolf Sunspot Number Series: Geomagnetic Underpinning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliver, E. W.; Svalgaard, L.

    2007-12-01

    The Wolf or International sunspot number (SSN) series is based on the work of Swiss astronomer Rudolf Wolf (1816-1893). Following the discovery of the sunspot cycle by Schwabe in 1843, Wolf culled sunspot counts from journals and observatory reports and combined them with his own observations to produce a SSN series that extended from 1700-1893. Thereafter the SSN record has been maintained by the Zurich Observatory and, since 1981, by the Royal Observatory of Belgium. The 1700-1893 SSN record constructed by Wolf has not been modified since his death. Here we show that Wolf's SSNs were not based solely on reports of sunspots but were calibrated by reference to geomagnetic range observations which closely track the sunspot number. Nor were these corrections small; for example Wolf multiplied the long series (1749-1796) of sunspot counts obtained by Staudacher by factors of 2.0 and 1.25, in turn, to obtain the numbers in use today. It is not surprising then that a competing SSN series obtained by Hoyt and Schatten based on group sunspot numbers is different, generally lower than that of Wolf. Comparison of the International number with current magnetic range observations indicates that, as Wolf found, the magnetic range (specifically, the average annual Y-component of mid-latitude stations) can be used as an independent check on the validity and stability of the SSN series. Moreover, the geomagnetic range series, which in itself is a long-term proxy of solar EUV emission, can be used to resolve discrepancies between the Wolf and Group SSN series during the 19th century.

  11. Open cycle cooling systems using solar energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazzarin, R.; Sovrano, M.

    Open cycle cooling systems are particularly suitable for utilizing solar energy. In all these systems the adsorption and absorption phenomena are very important, hence they are described separately. The cycles used are essentially two: the Baum-Kakabaev cycle using liquid absorbers and the dehumidification/humidification cycle where also adsorbent substances can be utilized. Solar energy is used in the regeneration process of dehumidifying substances. Reactivation modes can be various: suitability of one mode or the other can depend on the climate of the site where the system is installed.

  12. A Solar Flare Disturbing a Light Wall above a Sunspot Light Bridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yijun; Zhang, Jun; Li, Ting; Yang, Shuhong; Li, Leping; Li, Xiaohong

    2016-10-01

    With the high-resolution data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph, we detect a light wall above a sunspot light bridge in the NOAA active region (AR) 12403. In the 1330 Å slit-jaw images, the light wall is brighter than the ambient areas while the wall top and base are much brighter than the wall body, and it keeps oscillating above the light bridge. A C8.0 flare caused by a filament activation occurred in this AR with the peak at 02:52 UT on 2015 August 28, and the flare’s one ribbon overlapped the light bridge, which was the observational base of the light wall. Consequently, the oscillation of the light wall was evidently disturbed. The mean projective oscillation amplitude of the light wall increased from 0.5 to 1.6 Mm before the flare and decreased to 0.6 Mm after the flare. We suggest that the light wall shares a group of magnetic field lines with the flare loops, which undergo a magnetic reconnection process, and they constitute a coupled system. When the magnetic field lines are pushed upward at the pre-flare stage, the light wall turns to the vertical direction, resulting in the increase of the light wall’s projective oscillation amplitude. After the magnetic reconnection takes place, a group of new field lines with smaller scales are formed underneath the reconnection site, and the light wall inclines. Thus, the projective amplitude notably decrease at the post-flare stage.

  13. Long-period oscillations of sunspot magnetic fields by simultaneous observations of the Global Oscillation Network Group and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler imager

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efremov, V. I.; Parfinenko, L. D.; Solov'ev, A. A.; Riehokainen, A.

    2016-12-01

    For the first time, the ultra-low oscillation mode of the sunspot magnetic field strength has been detected with a high degree of confidence by ground-based observations of sunspots with the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) network of telescopes. Synchronous series of magnetograms derived from the GONG and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager (SOHO/MDI) have been processed. They were obtained on September 27-30, 2010, for the active region NOAA 11109 with a total duration of 80 h. The periods of magnetic field oscillations found by space data coincide with the periods defined with GONG. This confirms the physical reality of the oscillatory process. The power spectrum contains harmonics with periods of 26 h, 8-10 h, and 3-4 h.

  14. RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McClintock, B. H. [University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, 4350 (Australia); Norton, A. A. [HEPL, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305 (United States); Li, J., E-mail: u1049686@umail.usq.edu.au, E-mail: aanorton@stanford.edu, E-mail: jli@igpp.ucla.edu [Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

    2014-12-20

    Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators.

  15. Unusual Polar Activity of the Sun in the Northern Hemisphere and Its Implications for Solar Cycle 25

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Masuda, Satoshi; Yashiro, Seiji; Akiyama, Sachiko; Shibasaki, Kiyoto

    2016-07-01

    Polar field strength in one solar cycle is known to indicate the strength (e.g., Sunspot number) and phase of the next cycle. In particular the polar field strength (or its proxies such as the polar coronal hole area and microwave polar brightness) during the minimum phase of a given cycle seem to be well correlated with the maximum sunspot number of the next cycle. Polar prominence eruptions and coronal mass ejections have also been found to be indicators of low polar field; their cessation signals the time of polarity reversal. While these indicators are present in the current cycle, significant differences are found regarding the phase lag between the two hemispheres and the duration of polar eruptions. We use data from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph, the Solar Dynamics Observatory, SOLIS, and Wilcox Solar Observatory to highlight these differences. We find that the north polar region of the Sun has near-zero field strength for more than three years. This is unusually long and caused by surges of both polarities heading toward the north pole that prevent the buildup of the polar field. This seems to be due to anti-Hale active regions that appeared around the 2012 peak sunspot activity in the northern hemisphere. The unusual condition is consistent with (i) the continued high-latitude prominence eruption, (ii) the extended period of high tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet, (iii) the weak microwave polar brightness, and (iv) the lack of north polar coronal hole. On the other hand, the south polar field has started building up and the coronal hole has appeared in early 2015 because of large active regions of the correct tilt in the southern hemisphere during the 2014 peak of sunspot activity. The extended period of near-zero field in the north polar region should result in very weak and delayed sunspot activity in the northern hemisphere in cycle 25. On the other hand the south polar field has already increased significantly, suggesting that the activity in

  16. Statistical Study on Personal Reduction Coefficients of Sunspot Numbers Since 1981

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Il-Hyun; Bong, Su-Chan; Cho, Kyung-Suk; Lee, Jaejin; Kim, Rok-Soon; Park, Young-Deuk; Kim, Yeon-Han

    2014-12-01

    Using sunspot number data from 270 historical stations for the period 1981-2013, we investigate their personal reduction coefficients ($) statistically. Chang & Oh (2012) perform a simulation showing that the k varies with the solar cycle. We try to verify their results using observational data. For this, a weighted mean and weighted standard deviation of monthly sunspot number are used to estimate the error from observed data. We find that the observed error (noise) is much smaller than that used in the simulation. Thus no distinct k-variation with the solar cycle is observed contrary to the simulation. In addition, the probability distribution of k is determined to be non-Gaussian with a fat-tail on the right side. This result implies that the relative sunspot number after 1981 might be overestimated since the mean value of k is less than that of the Gaussian distribution.

  17. Statistical study of the equatorial F2 layer critical frequency at Ouagadougou during solar cycles 20, 21 and 22, using Legrand and Simon’s classification of geomagnetic activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amory-Mazaudier Christine

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the statistical analysis of the diurnal variations of the F layer at the equatorial station of Ouagadougou (Lat: 12.4° N; Long: 358.5° E; dip: 5.9° from 1966 to 1998 (=> ~11 680 days. We consider three main factors of variability: (1 the season (spring, summer, autumn and winter, (2 the phase of the sunspot cycle (ascending, maximum, descending and minimum and (3 the geomagnetic activity classified by Legrand and Simon in four groups: slow solar wind, high solar wind streams, fluctuating solar wind and shock activity. We easily identify the influence of the solar wind speed and shock activity on the diurnal pattern of the F layer. Shock and recurrent activities tend to enhance or diminish the morning or afternoon maximum of the F2 layer critical frequency. The difference of the diurnal foF2 variation during the increasing and decreasing phases of the sunspot solar cycle is explained by different solar wind regimes. The slow solar wind dominates during the increasing phase of the sunspot cycle and the fluctuating solar wind dominates during the decreasing phase of the sunspot cycle. This paper demonstrates that it is possible using a large database, to bring up significant morphologies of the diurnal variation of the foF2 critical frequency as a function of (1 different solar events such as quiet solar wind, fluctuating wind, recurrent high stream wind and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs; (2 solar cycle phases and (3 seasons. It is an approach directly connecting the critical frequency of the F2 layer to the solar parameters.

  18. What causes geomagnetic activity during sunspot minimum

    CERN Document Server

    Kirov, Boian; Georgieva, Katya; Obridko, Vladimir

    2014-01-01

    The average geomagnetic activity during sunspot minimum has been continuously decreasing in the last four cycles. The geomagnetic activity is caused by both interplanetary disturbances - coronal mass ejections and high speed solar wind streams, and the background solar wind over which these disturbances ride. We show that the geomagnetic activity in cycle minimum does not depend on the number and parameters of coronal mass ejections or high speed solar wind streams, but on the background solar wind. The background solar wind has two components: slower and faster. The source of the slower component is the heliospheric current sheet, and of the faster one the polar coronal holes. It is supposed that the geomagnetic activity in cycle minimum is determined by the thickness of the heliospheric current sheet which is related to the portions of time the Earth spends in slow and in fast solar wind. We demonstrate that it is also determined by the parameters of these two components of the background solar wind which v...

  19. Global water cycle and solar activity variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Tameemi, Muthanna A.; Chukin, Vladimir V.

    2016-05-01

    The water cycle is the most active and most important component in the circulation of global mass and energy in the Earth system. Furthermore, water cycle parameters such as evaporation, precipitation, and precipitable water vapour play a major role in global climate change. In this work, we attempt to determine the impact of solar activity on the global water cycle by analyzing the global monthly values of precipitable water vapour, precipitation, and the Solar Modulation Potential in 1983-2008. The first object of this study was to calculate global evaporation for the period 1983-2008. For this purpose, we determined the water cycle rate from satellite data, and precipitation/evaporation relationship from 10 years of Planet Simulator model data. The second object of our study was to investigate the relationship between the Solar Modulation Potential (solar activity index) and the evaporation for the period 1983-2008. The results showed that there is a relationship between the solar modulation potential and the evaporation values for the period of study. Therefore, we can assume that the solar activity has an impact on the global water cycle.

  20. Dynamo Models of the Solar Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charbonneau Paul

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews recent advances and current debates in modeling the solar cycle as a hydromagnetic dynamo process. Emphasis is placed on (relatively simple dynamo models that are nonetheless detailed enough to be comparable to solar cycle observations. After a brief overview of the dynamo problem and of key observational constraints, we begin by reviewing the various magnetic field regeneration mechanisms that have been proposed in the solar context. We move on to a presentation and critical discussion of extant solar cycle models based on these mechanisms. We then turn to the origin of fluctuations in these models, including amplitude and parity modulation, chaotic behavior, and intermittency. The paper concludes with a discussion of our current state of ignorance regarding various key questions, the most pressing perhaps being the identification of the physical mechanism(s responsible for the generation of the Sun's poloidal magnetic field component.

  1. LIFE CYCLE COST ANALYSIS OF SOLAR PONDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat ÖZTÜRK

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Solar ponds are the systems which collect solar energy and store it for long periods of time. For effective and efficient use of these systems in the country, concepts relating economy of solar ponds which generated hot water from the sun must be known besides their physical properties. Life cycle cost analysis is a systematic analytical method that helps identify and evaluate the environmental impacts of a specific process or competing processes. In order to quantify the costs, resource consumption, and energy use, material and energy balances are performed in a cradle-to-grave manner on the operations required to transform raw materials into useful products. In this study; life cycle cost analysis of reflecting covered and non covered solar ponds are calculated for a volume of 3.5x3.5x2 cubic meters and presented. Also the energies extractable for these solar ponds in Goller Region climatic conditions are given.

  2. Search for torsional oscillations in isolated sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griñón-Marín, A. B.; Socas-Navarro, H.; Centeno, R.

    2017-07-01

    In this work we seek evidence for global torsional oscillations in alpha sunspots. We have used long time series of continuum intensity and magnetic field vector maps from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft. The time series analysed here span the total disk passage of 25 isolated sunspots. We found no evidence of global long-term periodic oscillations in the azimuthal angle of the sunspot magnetic field within 1 degree. This study could help us to understand the sunspot dynamics and its internal structure.

  3. Cosmic rays, conditions in interplanetary space and geomagnetic variations during solar cycles 19-24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biktash, Lilia

    2016-07-01

    We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic and solar cosmic rays (CRs). In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and CRs variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst and Kp indices beginning from 1955 to the end 2015. The indices are in common practice in the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction studies and they are the final product of this interaction. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Correlation of sunspot numbers and long-term variations of cosmic rays do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU also. Moreover records of in situ space measurements of the IMF and most other indicators of solar activity cover only a few decades and have a lot of gaps for calculations of long-term variations. Because of this, in such investigations, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of the indices and of the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, Halekala and Oulu neutron monitors during the 20-24 solar cycles. During the descending phases of the solar cycles the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations and had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that long-term Dst and Kp variations in these solar cycles were correlated with cosmic ray count rates and can be used for prediction of CR variations. Climate change in connection with evolution of CRs variations is discussed.

  4. Width of Sunspot Generating Zone and Reconstruction of Butterfly Diagram

    CERN Document Server

    Ivanov, V G; 10.1007/s11207-010-9665-6

    2010-01-01

    Based on the extended Greenwich-NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes of solar activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt and Schatten (1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups ("the Maunder butterfly diagram") for the 18th and the first half of the 19th centuries is reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations.

  5. On the enhanced coronal mass ejection detection rate since the solar cycle 23 polar field reversal

    CERN Document Server

    Petrie, Gordon

    2015-01-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with angular width $> 30^{\\circ}$ have been observed to occur at a higher rate during solar cycle 24 compared to cycle 23, per sunspot number. This result is supported by data from three independent databases constructed using Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) coronagraph images, two employing automated detection techniques and one compiled manually by human observers. According to the two databases that cover a larger field of view, the enhanced CME rate actually began shortly after the cycle 23 polar field reversal, in 2004, when the polar fields returned with a 40\\% reduction in strength and interplanetary radial magnetic field became $\\approx 30\\%$ weaker. This result is consistent with the link between anomalous CME expansion and heliospheric total pressure decrease recently reported by Gopalswamy et al.

  6. Solar dynamo and geomagnetic activity

    CERN Document Server

    Georgieva, Katya

    2010-01-01

    The correlation between geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number in the 11-year solar cycle exhibits long-term variations due to the varying time lag between the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity, and the varying relative amplitude of the respective geomagnetic activity peaks. As the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity are caused by different solar agents, related to the solar toroidal and poloidal fields, respectively, we use their variations to derive the parameters of the solar dynamo transforming the poloidal field into toroidal field and back. We find that in the last 12 cycles the solar surface meridional circulation varied between 5 and 20 m/s (averaged over latitude and over the sunspot cycle), the deep circulation varied between 2.5 and 5.5 m/s, and the diffusivity in the whole of the convection zone was ~10**12 m2/s. In the last 12 cycles solar dynamo has been operating in moderately diffusion dominated regime in the bulk of the convection zone....

  7. Solar cycle modulation of Southern Annular Mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroda, Yuhji

    2016-04-01

    Climate is known to be affected by various factors, including oceanic changes and volcanic eruptions. 11-year solar cycle change is one of such important factors. Observational analysis shows that the winter-mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and late-winter/spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) show structural modulation associated with 11-year solar cycle. In fact, these signals tend to extend from surface to upper stratosphere and persistent longer period only in the High Solar (HS) years. In the present study, we used 35-year record of ERA-Interim reanalysis data and performed wave-energy and momentum analysis on the solar-cycle modulation of the SAM to examine key factors to create such solar-SAM relationship. It is found that enhanced wave-mean flow interaction tends to take place in the middle stratosphere in association with enhanced energy input from diabatic heating on September only in HS years. The result suggests atmospheric and solar conditions on September are keys to create solar-SAM relationship.

  8. Sunspot Catalogue of the Valencia Observatory (1920-1928)

    CERN Document Server

    Carrasco, V M S; Aparicio, A J P; Gallego, M C

    2014-01-01

    A sunspot catalogue was maintained by the Astronomical Observatory of Valencia University (Spain) from 1920 to 1928. Here we present a machine-readable version of this catalogue (OV catalog or OVc), including a quality control analysis. Sunspot number (total and hemispheric) and sunspot area series are constructed using this catalogue. The OV catalog's data are compared with other available solar data, demonstrating that the present contribution provides the scientific community with a reliable catalogue of sunspot data.

  9. Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Yasuhiko T; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Miyahara, Hiroko; Sho, Kenjiro; Nakatsuka, Takeshi

    2010-11-30

    The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun-climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ(18)O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun-climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ(14)C) and climate (δ(18)O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ(18)O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ(18)O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ(18)O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core (10)Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.

  10. STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilpua, E. K. J. [Department of Physics, University Helsinki (Finland); Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J. [ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Department of Computer Science, P.O. Box 15400, FI-00076 Aalto Univeristy (Finland); Miyahara, H. [Musashino Art University, 1-736 Ogawa-cho, Kodaira-shi, Tokyo 187-8505 (Japan); Kataoka, R. [National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518 (Japan); Liu, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2015-06-20

    We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.

  11. The Solar Rotation in the 1930s from the Sunspot and Flocculi Catalogs of the Ebro Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Paula, V.; Curto, J. J.; Casas, R.

    2016-10-01

    The tables of sunspot and flocculi heliographic positions included in the catalogs published by the Ebro Observatory in the 1930s have recently been recovered and converted into digital format by using optical character recognition (OCR) technology. We here analyzed these data by computing the angular velocity of several sunspot and flocculi groups. A difference was found in the rotational velocity for sunspots and flocculi groups at high latitudes, and we also detected an asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres, which is especially marked for the flocculi groups. The results were then fitted with a differential-rotation law [ω=a+b sin2 B] to compare the data obtained with the results published by other authors. A dependence on the latitude that is consistent with former studies was found. Finally, we studied the possible relationship between the sunspot/flocculi group areas and their corresponding angular velocity. There are strong indications that the rotational velocity of a sunspot/flocculi group is reduced (in relation to the differential rotation law) when its maximum area is larger.

  12. Numerical simulations of sunspot rotation driven by magnetic flux emergence

    OpenAIRE

    Sturrock, Zoe

    2017-01-01

    Magnetic flux continually emerges from the Sun, rising through the solar interior, emerging at the photosphere in the form of sunspots and expanding into the atmosphere. Observations of sunspot rotations have been reported for over a century and are often accompanied by solar eruptions and flaring activity. In this thesis, we present 3D numerical simulations of the emergence of twisted flux tubes from the uppermost layers of the solar interior, examining the rotational movements of sunspots i...

  13. Solar spectral irradiance changes during cycle 24

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marchenko, S. V.; DeLand, M. T. [Also at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA. (United States)

    2014-07-10

    We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by ∼0.6% ± 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% ± 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar 'continuum'. Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar 'continuum', the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at λ ≳ 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

  14. Coronal Mass Ejections of Solar Cycle 23

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nat Gopalswamy

    2006-06-01

    I summarize the statistical, physical, and morphological properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) of solar cycle 23, as observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission. The SOHO data is by far the most extensive data, which made it possible to fully establish the properties of CMEs as a phenomenon of utmost importance to Sun–Earth connection as well as to the heliosphere. I also discuss various subsets of CMEs that are of primary importance for their impact on Earth.

  15. Helioseismology of a Realistic Magnetoconvective Sunspot Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, D. C.; Birch, A. C.; Rempel, M.; Duvall, T. L., Jr.

    2012-01-01

    We compare helioseismic travel-time shifts measured from a realistic magnetoconvective sunspot simulation using both helioseismic holography and time-distance helioseismology, and measured from real sunspots observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We find remarkable similarities in the travel-time shifts measured between the methodologies applied and between the simulated and real sunspots. Forward modeling of the travel-time shifts using either Born or ray approximation kernels and the sound-speed perturbations present in the simulation indicates major disagreements with the measured travel-time shifts. These findings do not substantially change with the application of a correction for the reduction of wave amplitudes in the simulated and real sunspots. Overall, our findings demonstrate the need for new methods for inferring the subsurface structure of sunspots through helioseismic inversions.

  16. Evidence of solar induced cycles of high seismic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duma, G.

    2010-12-01

    In the past century, several observational results and corresponding publications indicate a systematic seismic performance with respect to the time of day and seasons as well. Such effects could be caused only by solar or lunar influence. In addition, a possible relation with the solar cycles was discussed in some papers, too. Intensive studies on these topics have also been performed at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria. They strongly confirm the above mentioned effects. In order to verify a solar influence on earthquake activity correlations were performed between the three-hour magnetic index Kp and the energy release of earthquakes in the long term. Kp characterizes the magnetic field disturbances which are mainly caused by the solar particle radiation, the solar wind. Kp is determined on a routine basis from magnetic records of 13 observatories worldwide and is continuously published by ISGI, France. Three regions of continental size were investigated, using the USGS (PDE) earthquake catalogue data, from 1974 on: N-America, S-America and Eurasia. The statistic analyses reveal that from 1974 to 2009 the index Kp varies in cycles with periods between 9 and 12 years, somewhat different to the sunspot number cycles (no. 21, 22, 23) of 11 years. As to the seismic energy release, the sqrt (energy E) of an event is taken as measure, which relates to the ‘strain release’ due to the earthquake (Benioff). For Kp the monthly averages were computed, for the strain release the monthly sums of sqrt(E), hereinafter referred to as STR. From the statistic estimates of the relation Kp-STR for all the three regions N-America, S-America and Eurasia it becomes evident, that the correlation is highly significant: earthquake activity, quantified by the monthly STR, follows the Kp cycles with high coincidence. A quantitative analysis reveals that on an annual basis, the sum of released energy by earthquakes changes by a factor up to

  17. THE BIMODAL STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR CYCLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du, Z. L., E-mail: zldu@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

    2015-05-01

    Some properties of the 11 yr solar cycle can be explained by the current solar dynamo models. However, some other features remain not well understood such as the asymmetry of the cycle, the double-peaked structure, and the “Waldmeier effect” that a stronger cycle tends to have less rise time and a shorter cycle length. We speculate that the solar cycle is governed by a bi-dynamo model forming two stochastic processes depicted by a bimodal Gaussian function with a time gap of about 2 yr, from which the above features can be reasonably explained. The first one describes the main properties of the cycle dominated by the current solar dynamo models, and the second one occurs either in the rising phase as a short weak explosive perturbation or in the declining phase as a long stochastic perturbation. The above function is the best one selected from several in terms of the Akaike information criterion. Through analyzing different distributions, one might speculate about the dominant physical process inside the convection zone. The secondary (main) process is found to be closely associated with complicated (simple) active ranges. In effect, the bi-dynamo model is a reduced form of a multi-dynamo model, which could occur from the base of the convection zone through its envelope and from low to high heliographic latitude, reflecting the active belts in the convection zone. These results are insensitive to the hemispheric asymmetry, smoothing filters, and distribution functions selected and are expected to be helpful in understanding the formation of solar and stellar cycles.

  18. Sources of solar wind over the solar activity cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poletto, Giannina

    2013-05-01

    Fast solar wind has been recognized, about 40 years ago, to originate in polar coronal holes (CHs), that, since then, have been identified with sources of recurrent high speed wind streams. As of today, however, there is no general consensus about whether there are, within CHs, preferential locations where the solar wind is accelerated. Knowledge of slow wind sources is far from complete as well. Slow wind observed in situ can be traced back to its solar source by backward extrapolation of magnetic fields whose field lines are streamlines of the outflowing plasma. However, this technique often has not the necessary precision for an indisputable identification of the region where wind originates. As the Sun progresses through its activity cycle, different wind sources prevail and contribute to filling the heliosphere. Our present knowledge of different wind sources is here summarized. Also, a Section addresses the problem of wind acceleration in the low corona, as inferred from an analysis of UV data, and illustrates changes between fast and slow wind profiles and possible signatures of changes along the solar cycle. A brief reference to recent work about the deep roots of solar wind and their changes over different solar cycles concludes the review.

  19. Sunspot Numbers from ISOON: A Ten-Year Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Henry, T. W.

    2016-11-01

    Sunspot numbers are important tracers of historical solar activity. They are important in predicting the oncoming solar maximum, in the design of lifetimes of space assets, and in assessing the extent of solar-radiation impact on the space environment. Historically, sunspot numbers have been obtained visually from sunspot drawings. The availability of digital images from the US Air Force Improved Solar Optical Observing Network (ISOON) prototype telescope concurrent to observer-dependent sunspot numbers recorded at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) has provided a basis for comparing sunspot numbers determined from the two methods. We compare sunspot numbers from visual and digital methods observed nearly simultaneously. The advantages of digital imagery are illustrated.

  20. A Multi-Instrument Analysis of Sunspot Umbrae

    CERN Document Server

    Watson, Fraser T; Livingston, William C

    2015-01-01

    The recent solar minimum and rise phase of solar cycle 24 have been unlike any period since the early 1900s. This article examines some of the properties of sunspot umbrae over the last 17 years with three different instruments on the ground and in space: MDI, HMI and BABO. The distribution of magnetic fields and their evolution over time is shown and reveals that the field distribution in cycle 24 is fundamentally different from that in cycle 23. The annual average umbral magnetic field is then examined for the 17 year observation period and shows a small decrease of 375 Gauss in sunspot magnetic fields over the period 1996 to 2013, but the mean intensity of sunspot umbrae does not vary significantly over this time. A possible issue with sample sizes in a previous study is then explored to explain disagreements in data from two of the source instruments. All three instruments show that the relationship between umbral magnetic fields and umbral intensity agrees with past studies in that the umbral intensity d...

  1. AAVSO Visual Sunspot Observations vs. SDO HMI Sunspot Catalog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, R.

    2014-06-01

    (Abstract only) The most important issue with regard to using the SDO HMI data from the National Solar Observatory (NSO, http://www.nso.edu/staff/fwatson/STARA) is that their current model for creating sunspot counts does not split in groups and consequently does not provide a corresponding group count and Wolf number. As it is a different quantity, it cannot be mixed with the data from our sunspot networks. For the AAVSO with about seventy stations contributing each day, adding HMI sunspot data would anyway hardly change the resulting index. Perhaps, the best use of HMI data is for an external validation, by exploiting the fact that HMI provides a series that is rather close to the sunspot number and is acquired completely independently. So, it is unlikely to suffer from the same problems (jumps, biases) at the same time. This validation only works for rather short durations, as the lifetime of space instruments is limited and aging effects are often affecting the data over the mission. In addition, successive instruments have different properties: for example, the NSO model has not managed yet to reconcile the series from MDI and HMI. There is a ~10-15% jump. The first challenge that should be addressed by AAVSO using HMI data is the splitting in groups and deriving group properties. Then, together with the sunspot counts and areas per group, a lot more analyses and diagnostics can be derived (like the selective disappearance of the smallest sunspots?), that can help interpreting trends in the ratio SSN/other solar indices and many other solar effects.

  2. The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum ampli-tude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise predictionof the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despiteprogress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical character-istics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, ahigh rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, dependingon the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascendingphase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of thecycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the startof the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximumamplitude.

  3. COMPARISON OF CHAOTIC AND FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR FACULAE WITH SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, L. H.; Xiang, Y. Y.; Dun, G. T. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216 (China); Li, B., E-mail: wooden@escience.cn [Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Physics, Shandong University at Weihai, Weihai 264209 (China)

    2016-01-15

    The solar magnetic activity is governed by a complex dynamo mechanism and exhibits a nonlinear dissipation behavior in nature. The chaotic and fractal properties of solar time series are of great importance to understanding the solar dynamo actions, especially with regard to the nonlinear dynamo theories. In the present work, several nonlinear analysis approaches are proposed to investigate the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the polar faculae and sunspot activity for the time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. The following prominent results are found: (1) both the high- and the low-latitude solar activity are governed by a three-dimensional chaotic attractor, and the chaotic behavior of polar faculae is the most complex, followed by that of the sunspot areas, and then the sunspot numbers; (2) both the high- and low-latitude solar activity exhibit a high degree of persistent behavior, and their fractal nature is due to such long-range correlation; (3) the solar magnetic activity cycle is predictable in nature, but the high-accuracy prediction should only be done for short- to mid-term due to its intrinsically dynamical complexity. With the help of the Babcock–Leighton dynamo model, we suggest that the nonlinear coupling of the polar magnetic fields with strong active-region fields exhibits a complex manner, causing the statistical similarities and differences between the polar faculae and the sunspot-related indicators.

  4. Comparison of Chaotic and Fractal Properties of Polar Faculae with Sunspot Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, L. H.; Li, B.; Xiang, Y. Y.; Dun, G. T.

    2016-01-01

    The solar magnetic activity is governed by a complex dynamo mechanism and exhibits a nonlinear dissipation behavior in nature. The chaotic and fractal properties of solar time series are of great importance to understanding the solar dynamo actions, especially with regard to the nonlinear dynamo theories. In the present work, several nonlinear analysis approaches are proposed to investigate the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the polar faculae and sunspot activity for the time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. The following prominent results are found: (1) both the high- and the low-latitude solar activity are governed by a three-dimensional chaotic attractor, and the chaotic behavior of polar faculae is the most complex, followed by that of the sunspot areas, and then the sunspot numbers; (2) both the high- and low-latitude solar activity exhibit a high degree of persistent behavior, and their fractal nature is due to such long-range correlation; (3) the solar magnetic activity cycle is predictable in nature, but the high-accuracy prediction should only be done for short- to mid-term due to its intrinsically dynamical complexity. With the help of the Babcock-Leighton dynamo model, we suggest that the nonlinear coupling of the polar magnetic fields with strong active-region fields exhibits a complex manner, causing the statistical similarities and differences between the polar faculae and the sunspot-related indicators.

  5. Sunspot Dynamics Are Reflected in Human Physiology and Pathophysiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hrushesky, William J. M.; Sothern, Robert B.; Du-Quiton, Jovelyn; Quiton, Dinah Faith T.; Rietveld, Wop; Boon, Mathilde E.

    2011-03-01

    Periodic episodes of increased sunspot activity (solar electromagnetic storms) occur with 10-11 and 5-6 year periodicities and may be associated with measurable biological events. We investigated whether this sunspot periodicity characterized the incidence of Pap smear-determined cervical epithelial histopathologies and human physiologic functions. From January 1983 through December 2003, monthly averages were obtained for solar flux and sunspot numbers; six infectious, premalignant and malignant changes in the cervical epithelium from 1,182,421 consecutive, serially independent, screening Pap smears (59°9"N, 4°29"E); and six human physiologic functions of a healthy man (oral temperature, pulse, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respiration, and peak expiratory flow), which were measured ∼5 times daily during ∼34,500 self-measurement sessions (44°56"N, 93°8"W). After determining that sunspot numbers and solar flux, which were not annually rhythmic, occurred with a prominent 10-year and a less-prominent 5.75-year periodicity during this 21-year study span, each biological data set was analyzed with the same curve-fitting procedures. All six annually rhythmic Pap smear-detected infectious, premalignant and malignant cervical epithelial pathologies showed strong 10-year and weaker 5.75-year cycles, as did all six self-measured, annually rhythmic, physiologic functions. The phases (maxima) for the six histopathologic findings and five of six physiologic measurements were very near, or within, the first two quarters following the 10-year solar maxima. These findings add to the growing evidence that solar magnetic storm periodicities are mirrored by cyclic phase-locked rhythms of similar period length or lengths in human physiology and pathophysiology.

  6. The Causes of Geomagnetic Storms During Solar Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsurutani, B. T.; Gonzalez, W. D.

    1998-01-01

    One of the oldest mysteries in geomagnetism is the linkage between solar and geomagnetic activity. The 11-year cycles of both the numbers of sunspots and Earth geomagnetic storms were first noted by Sabine (1852).

  7. Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, J.J.; Mursula, K.; Tsai, V.C.; Perkins, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically- significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. Properties of solar activity and ionosphere for solar cycle 25

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deminov, M. G.; Nepomnyashchaya, E. V.; Obridko, V. N.

    2016-11-01

    Based on the known forecast of solar cycle 25 amplitude ( Rz max ≈ 50), the first assessments of the shape and amplitude of this cycle in the index of solar activity F10.7 (the magnitude of solar radio flux at the 10.7 cm wavelength) are given. It has been found that ( F10.7)max ≈ 115, which means that it is the lowest solar cycle ever encountered in the history of regular ionospheric measurements. For this reason, many ionospheric parameters for cycle 25, including the F2-layer peak height and critical frequency ( hmF2 and foF2), will be extremely low. For example, at middle latitudes, typical foF2 values will not exceed 8-10 MHz, which makes ionospheric heating ineffective in the area of upper hybrid resonance at frequencies higher than 10 MHz. The density of the atmosphere will also be extremely low, which significantly extends the lifetime of low-orbit satellites. The probability of F-spread will be increased, especially during night hours.

  9. Ozone depletion during solar proton events in solar cycle 21

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcpeters, R. D.; Jackman, C. H.

    1985-01-01

    Ozone profile data from the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet Instrument on Nimbus 7 from 1979 to the present and clear cases of ozone destruction associated with five sudden proton events (SPEs) on June 7, 1979, August 21, 1979, October 13-14, 1981, July 13, 1982, and December 8, 1982 are found. During the SPE on July 13, 1982, the largest of this solar cycle, no depletion at all at 45 km is observed, but there is a 15 percent ozone depletion at 50 km increasing to 27 percent at 55 km, all at a solar zenith angle of 85 deg. A strong variation of the observed depletion with solar zenith angle is found, with maximum depletion occurring at the largest zenith angles (near 85 deg) decreasing to near zero for angles below about 70 deg. The observed depletion is short lived, disappearing within hours of the end of the SPE.

  10. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojo-Garibaldi, Berenice; Salas-de-León, David Alberto; Sánchez, Norma Leticia; Monreal-Gómez, María Adela

    2016-10-01

    We present the results of a time series analysis of hurricanes and sunspots occurring from 1749 to 2010. Exploratory analysis shows that the total number of hurricanes is declining. This decline is related to an increase in sunspot activity. Spectral analysis shows a relationship between hurricane oscillation periods and sunspot activity. Several sunspot cycles were identified from the time series analysis.

  11. Short-Term Variations in the Equatorial Rotation Rate of Sunspot Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaraiah, J.; Bertello, L.

    2016-12-01

    We have detected several periodicities in the solar equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups in the catalog Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1931 - 1976, the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) during the period 1977 - 2014, and the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1974 - 2014. We have compared the results from the fast Fourier transform (FFT), the maximum entropy method (MEM), and the Morlet wavelet power-spectra of the equatorial rotation rates determined from SOON and DPD sunspot-group data during the period 1986 - 2007 with those of the Mount Wilson Doppler-velocity data during the same period determined by Javaraiah et al. ( Solar Phys. 257, 61, 2009). We have also compared the power-spectra computed from the DPD and the combined GPR and SOON sunspot-group data during the period 1974 - 2014 to those from the GPR sunspot-group data during the period 1931 - 1973. Our results suggest a ˜ 250-day period in the equatorial rotation rate determined from both the Mt. Wilson Doppler-velocity data and the sunspot-group data during 1986 - 2007. However, a wavelet analysis reveals that this periodicity appears mostly around 1991 in the velocity data, while it is present in most of the solar cycles covered by the sunspot-group data, mainly near the minimum epochs of the solar cycles. We also found the signature of a period of ˜ 1.4 years in the velocity data during 1990 - 1995, and in the equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups mostly around the year 1956. The equatorial rotation rate of sunspot groups reveals a strong ˜ 1.6-year periodicity around 1933 and 1955, a weaker one around 1976, and a strong ˜ 1.8-year periodicity around 1943. Our analysis also suggests periodicities of ˜ 5 years, ˜ 7 years, and ˜ 17 years, as well as some other short-term periodicities. However, short-term periodicities are mostly present at the time of solar minima. Hence, short-term periodicities cannot be confirmed because of

  12. 11-year cycle solar modulation of cosmic ray intensity inferred from C-14 content variation in dated tree rings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, C. Y.; Chen, T. M.; Yun, S. X.; Dai, K. M.

    1983-01-01

    A liquid scintillation-photomultiplier tube counter system was used to measure the Delta-C-14 values of 60 tree rings, dating from 1866 to 1925, that were taken from a white spruce grown in Canada at 68 deg N, 130 deg W. A 10-percent variation is found which is anticorrelated with sunspot numbers, although the amplitude of the variation is 2-3 times higher than expected in trees grown at lower latitudes. A large dip in the data at about 1875 suggests an anomalously large modulation of cosmic ray intensity during the 1867-1878 AD solar cycle, which was the most active of the 19th century.

  13. GCR intensity during the sunspot maximum phase and the inversion of the heliospheric magnetic field

    CERN Document Server

    Krainev, M; Kalinin, M; Svirzhevskaya, A; Svirzhevsky, N

    2015-01-01

    The maximum phase of the solar cycle is characterized by several interesting features in the solar activity, heliospheric characteristics and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity. Recently the maximum phase of the current solar cycle (SC) 24, in many relations anomalous when compared with solar cycles of the second half of the 20-th century, came to the end. The corresponding phase in the GCR intensity cycle is also in progress. In this paper we study different aspects of the sunspot, heliospheric and GCR behavior around this phase. Our main conclusions are as follows: 1) The maximum phase of the sunspot SC 24 ended in 06.2014, the development of the sunspot cycle being similar to those of SC 14, 15 (the Glaisberg minimum). The maximum phase of SC 24 in the GCR intensity is still in progress. 2) The inversion of the heliospheric magnetic field consists of three stages, characterized by the appearance of the global heliospheric current sheet (HCS), connecting all longitudes. In two transition dipole stages ...

  14. Solar cycle variations of magnetopause locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Němeček, Z.; Šafránková, J.; Lopez, R. E.; Dušík, Š.; Nouzák, L.; Přech, L.; Šimůnek, J.; Shue, J.-H.

    2016-07-01

    The magnetopause location is generally believed to be determined by the solar wind dynamic pressure and by the sign and value of the interplanetary magnetic field vertical (BZ) component. The contribution of other parameters is usually considered to be minor or negligible near the equatorial plane. Recent papers have shown a magnetopause expansion during intervals of a nearly radial IMF but our ability to predict the magnetopause location under steady or slowly changing upstream conditions remains rather weak even if the effect of radial magnetic field is considered. We present a statistical study based on more than 10,000 magnetopause crossings identified in the THEMIS data in the course of the last half of the solar cycle. The observed magnetopause locations are compared with an empirical magnetopause model of Shue et al. (1997) and the sources of differences between observations and model predictions are analyzed. This analysis reveals that the magnetopause location depends on the solar activity being more compressed during the solar maximum. Furthermore, we have found that, beside the solar wind dynamic pressure and vertical magnetic field component, the solar wind speed and ionospheric conductivity (F10.7 used as a proxy) are important physical quantities controlling this compression.

  15. Properties and Geoeffectiveness of Magnetic Clouds during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, N; Xie, H; Akiyama, S; Mäkelä, P

    2015-01-01

    We report on a study that compares the properties of magnetic clouds (MCs) during the first 73 months of solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to understand the weak geomagnetic activity in cycle 24. We find that the number of MCs did not decline in cycle 24, although the average sunspot number is known to have declined by ~40%. Despite the large number of MCs, their geoeffectiveness in cycle 24 was very low. The average Dst index in the sheath and cloud portions in cycle 24 was -33 nT and -23 nT, compared to -66 nT and -55 nT, respectively in cycle 23. One of the key outcomes of this investigation is that the reduction in the strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by the Dst index is a direct consequence of the reduction in the factor VBz (the product of the MC speed and the out-of-the-ecliptic component of the MC magnetic field). The reduction in MC-to-ambient total pressure in cycle 24 is compensated for by the reduction in the mean MC speed, resulting in the constancy of the dimensionless expansion rate at ...

  16. Predicting the Amplitude and Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Cycle 25 with Surface Flux Transport

    CERN Document Server

    Hathaway, David H

    2016-01-01

    Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well constrained by observations, to simulate the evolution of the Sun's polar magnetic fields from early 2016 to the end of 2019 --- near the expected time of Cycle 24/25 minimum. We run a series of simulations in which the uncertain conditions (convective motion details, active region tilt, and meridional flow profile) are varied within expected ranges. We find that the average strength of the polar fields near the end of Cycle 24 will be similar to that measured near the end of Cycle 23, indicating that Cycle 25 will be similar in strength to the current cycle. In all cases the polar fields are asymmetric with fields in the south stronger than those in the north. This asymmetry would be more pronounced if not for the predicted weakening of the southern polar fields in late 20...

  17. A thermodynamic cycle for the solar cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alicki, Robert; Gelbwaser-Klimovsky, David; Jenkins, Alejandro

    2017-03-01

    A solar cell is a heat engine, but textbook treatments are not wholly satisfactory from a thermodynamic standpoint, since they present solar cells as directly converting the energy of light into electricity, and the current in the circuit as maintained by an electrostatic potential. We propose a thermodynamic cycle in which the gas of electrons in the p phase serves as the working substance. The interface between the p and n phases acts as a self-oscillating piston that modulates the absorption of heat from the photons so that it may perform a net positive work during a complete cycle of its motion, in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics. We draw a simple hydrodynamical analogy between this model and the ;putt-putt; engine of toy boats, in which the interface between the water's liquid and gas phases serves as the piston. We point out some testable consequences of this model.

  18. Evidence of a planetary influence on solar activity: Phase coherence of the variation in sunspot area with the tidal effect of Mercury

    CERN Document Server

    Edmonds, Ian

    2015-01-01

    There have been numerous reports of quasiperiodicities in solar activity in the intermediate period range. However, no accepted explanation for the episodic occurrence of quasiperiodicities has emerged. This paper examines the possibility that the periodicities are associated with a Mercury Sun interaction of base period 88 days. To test this idea we band pass filter the 140 year long daily sunspot area data to obtain the 88 day period and 176 day sub harmonic period components of the data and compare the time variation of the components with the time variation of the orbital radius of Mercury, or more specifically with the time variation of the tidal effect of Mercury. We were able to show that, when successive episodes of the occurrence of the 88 day period component were discrete and not overlapping in time, the time variation of this component of sunspot area was either exactly in-phase or exactly in anti-phase with the time variation of tidal effect. A similar result was obtained for the 176 day period c...

  19. Occurrence of Sporadic -E layer during the Ending Phase of Solar Cycle 23rd and Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 24th over the Anomaly Crest Region Bhopal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhawre, Purushottam; Gwal, Ashok Kumar; Tripathi, Sharad Chandra; Mansoori, Azad Ahmad; Aslam A., M.; Khan, Parvaiz A.; Purohit, Pramod K.; Waheed, Malik Abdul; Khatarkar, Prakash

    Ionospheric anomaly crest regions are most challenging for scientific community to understand its mechanism and investigation, for this purpose we are investigating some inospheric result for this region. The study is based on the ionogram data recorded by IPS-71 Digital Ionosonde installed over anomaly crust region Bhopal (Geo.Lat.23.2° N, Geo. Long77.4° E, Dip latitude18.4°) over a four year period from January 2007 to December 2010, covering the ending phase of 23rd Solar Cycle and starting phase of 24th solar cycle. This particular period is felt to be very suitable for examining the sunspot number and it encompasses periods of low solar activities. Quarterly ionograms are analyzed for 24 hours during these study years and have been carefully examined to note down the presence of sporadic- E. We also note down the space weather activities along with the study. The studies are divided in mainly four parts with space and geomagnetic activities during these periods. The occurrence probability of this layer is highest in summer solstice, moderate during equinox and low during winter solstice. Remarkable occurrence peaks appear from June to July in summer and from December to January in winter. The layer occurrence showed a double peak variation with distinct layer groups, in the morning (0200 LT) and the other during evening (1800 LT).The morning layer descent was associated with layer density increase indicating the strengthening of the layer while it decreased during the evening layer descent. The result indicates the presence of semi-diurnal tide over the location while the higher descent velocities could be due to the modulation of the ionization by gravity waves along with the tides. The irregularities associated with the gradient-drift instability disappear during the counter electrojet and the current flow is reversed in westward. Keyword: ionosphere, solar cycle, sporadic - E

  20. The Effect of Sunspot Weighting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svalgaard, Leif; Cagnotti, Marco; Cortesi, Sergio

    2017-02-01

    Although W. Brunner began to weight sunspot counts (from 1926), using a method whereby larger spots were counted more than once, he compensated for the weighting by not counting enough smaller spots in order to maintain the same reduction factor (0.6) as was used by his predecessor A. Wolfer to reduce the count to R. Wolf's original scale, so that the weighting did not have any effect on the scale of the sunspot number. In 1947, M. Waldmeier formalized the weighting (on a scale from 1 to 5) of the sunspot count made at Zurich and its auxiliary station Locarno. This explicit counting method, when followed, inflates the relative sunspot number over that which corresponds to the scale set by Wolfer (and matched by Brunner). Recounting some 60,000 sunspots on drawings from the reference station Locarno shows that the number of sunspots reported was "over counted" by {≈} 44 % on average, leading to an inflation (measured by an effective weight factor) in excess of 1.2 for high solar activity. In a double-blind parallel counting by the Locarno observer M. Cagnotti, we determined that Svalgaard's count closely matches that of Cagnotti, allowing us to determine from direct observation the daily weight factor for spots since 2003 (and sporadically before). The effective total inflation turns out to have two sources: a major one (15 - 18 %) caused by weighting of spots, and a minor source (4 - 5 %) caused by the introduction of the Zürich classification of sunspot groups which increases the group count by 7 - 8 % and the relative sunspot number by about half that. We find that a simple empirical equation (depending on the activity level) fits the observed factors well, and use that fit to estimate the weighting inflation factor for each month back to the introduction of effective inflation in 1947 and thus to be able to correct for the over-counts and to reduce sunspot counting to the Wolfer method in use from 1894 onwards.

  1. Solar total irradiance in cycle 23

    CERN Document Server

    Krivova, N A; Schmutz, W

    2011-01-01

    The apparently unusual behaviour of the TSI during the most recent minimum of solar activity has been interpreted as evidence against solar surface magnetism as the main driver of the secular change in the TSI. We test claims that the evolution of the solar surface magnetic field does not reproduce the observed TSI in cycle 23. We use sensitive, 60-minute averaged MDI magnetograms and quasi-simultaneous continuum images as an input to our SATIRE-S model and calculate the TSI variation over cycle 23, sampled roughly twice-monthly. The computed TSI is then compared to the PMOD composite of TSI measurements and to the data from two individual instruments, SORCE/TIM and UARS/ACRIM II, that monitored the TSI during the declining phase of cycle 23 and over the previous minimum in 1996, respectively. Excellent agreement is found between the trends shown by the model and almost all sets of measurements. The only exception is the early, i.e. 1996 to 1998, PMOD data. Whereas the agreement between the model and the PMOD...

  2. The effect of solar cycle's activities on earthquake:a conceptual idea for forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikouravan, Bijan; Pirasteh, Saied; Somayeh, Mollaee

    2013-04-01

    It has been seen that the period of solar activity and its cycle has a decrease of seismic activity in the compression zone of the Earth. In addition, at the same time there is an increase of the activity in the tension zones of the Earth. This study has been emphasized on last 45 years (i.e. 1960-2005) cyclic data in term of the number of seismic and sunspots activities. The high correlation between sunspot and earthquakes shows that there is long-term forecast for the earthquakes mainly in Iran, Japan and USA in and after 2010. The next maximum of seismic activities and earthquakes with very high amplitude for the tension zones on the Earth has forecasted for the period 2012-2013 mainly in the night. This has been alarming for the countries that fall within the seismic region such as Iran, Japan, USA etc. and if the Governments do not make the infrastructure strengthen, there may be more disasters and loss of life and properties in future.

  3. A solar cycle lengthwise series of solar diameter measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penna, J. L.; Andrei, A. H.; Boscardin, S. C.; Neto, E. Reis; d'Ávila, V. A.

    2010-02-01

    The measurements of the solar photospheric diameter rank among the most difficult astronomic observations. Reasons for this are the fuzzy definition of the limb, the SNR excess, and the adverse daytime seeing condition. As a consequence there are very few lengthy and consistent time series of such measurements. Using modern techniques, just the series from the IAG/USP and from Calern/OCA span more than one solar cycle. The Rio de Janeiro Group observations started in 1997, and therefore in 2008 one complete solar cycle time span can be analyzed. The series shares common principles of observation and analysis with the ones afore mentioned, and it is complementary on time to them. The distinctive features are the larger number of individual points and the improved precision. The series contains about 25,000 single observations, evenly distributed on a day-by-day basis. The typical error of a single observation is half an arc-second, enabling us to investigate variations at the expected level of tens of arc-second on a weekly basis. These features prompted to develop a new methodology for the investigation of the heliophysical scenarios leading to the observed variations, both on time and on heliolatitude. The algorithms rely on running averages and time shifts to derive the correlation and statistical incertitude for the comparison of the long term and major episodes variations of the solar diameter against activity markers. The results bring support to the correlation between the diameter variation and the solar activity, but evidentiating two different regimens for the long term trend and the major solar events.

  4. Update on a Solar Magnetic Catalog Spanning Four Solar Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Acosta, Juan Pablo; Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Vargas Dominguez, Santiago; Werginz, Zachary; DeLuca, Michael D.; Longcope, Dana; Harvey, J. W.; Windmueller, John; Zhang, Jie; Martens, Petrus C.

    2017-08-01

    Bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are the cornerstone of solar cycle propagation, the building blocks that give structure to the solar atmosphere, and the origin of the majority of space weather events. However, in spite of their importance, there is no homogeneous BMR catalog spanning the era of systematic solar magnetic field measurements. Here we present the results of an ongoing project to address this deficiency applying the Bipolar Active Region Detection (BARD) code to magnetograms from the 512 Channel of the Kitt Peak Vaccum Telescope, SOHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI.The BARD code automatically identifies BMRs and tracks them as they are rotated by differential rotation. The output of the automatic detection is supervised by a human observer to correct possible mistakes made by the automatic algorithm (like incorrect pairings and tracking mislabels). Extra passes are made to integrate fragmented regions as well as to balance the flux between BMR polarities. At the moment, our BMR database includes nearly 10,000 unique objects (detected and tracked) belonging to four separate solar cycles (21-24).

  5. Wings of the butterfly: Sunspot groups for 1826-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leussu, R.; Usoskin, I. G.; Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Diercke, A.; Arlt, R.; Denker, C.; Mursula, K.

    2017-03-01

    The spatio-temporal evolution of sunspot activity, the so-called Maunder butterfly diagram, has been continously available since 1874 using data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory, extended by SOON network data after 1976. Here we present a new extended butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence since 1826, using the recently digitized data from Schwabe (1826-1867) and Spörer (1866-1880). The wings of the diagram are separated using a recently developed method based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. We define characteristic latitudes, corresponding to the start, end, and the largest extent of the wings (the F, L, and H latitudes). The H latitudes (30°-45°) are highly significantly correlated with the strength of the wings (quantified by the total sum of the monthly numbers of sunspot groups). The F latitudes (20°-30°) depict a weak tendency, especially in the southern hemisphere, to follow the wing strength. The L latitudes (2°-10°) show no clear relation to the wing strength. Overall, stronger cycle wings tend to start at higher latitudes and have a greater wing extent. A strong (5-6)-cycle periodic oscillation is found in the start and end times of the wings and in the overlap and gaps between successive wings of one hemisphere. While the average wing overlap is zero in the southern hemisphere, it is two to three months in the north. A marginally significant oscillation of about ten solar cycles is found in the asymmetry of the L latitudes. The new long database of butterfly wings provides new observational constraints to solar dynamo models that discuss the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspot occurrence over the solar cycle and longer. Digital data for Fig. 1 are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/599/A131

  6. Long-term variations of geomagnetic activity and their solar sources

    CERN Document Server

    Kirov, B; Georgieva, K; Nepomnyashtaya, E V; Shelting, B D

    2013-01-01

    Geomagnetic activity in each phase of the solar cycle consists of 3 parts: (1) a floor below which the geomagnetic activity cannot fall even in the absence of sunspots, related to moderate graduate commencement storms; (2) sunspot-related activity due to sudden commencement storms caused by coronal mass ejections; (3) graduate commencement storms due to high speed solar wind from solar coronal holes. We find that the changes in the floor depend on the global magnetic moment of the Sun, and on the other side, from the height of the floor we can judge about the amplitude of the sunspot cycle.

  7. Solar Cycle Effects on the Near-Earth Space Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-08-06

    existence of cyclic behavior extend as far back as the invention of the telescope in tne 17th century (see Galilei , 1957). Perhaps the earliest...of Cosmic Ray Intensity on November 19, 1949," Physical Review 79, 501 (1950). G. Galilei , "Letters on Sunspots, 1612," in Discoveries and Opinions of... Galileo , pp. 106-119, Doubleday and Company, Inc., New York (1957). 61 H. B. Garrett, H. B., Dessler, A. J., and T. W. Hill, "Influence of Solar

  8. Time-variation of the near 5-month period of sunspot numbers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The variation of the near 5-month period of sunspot numbers is discussed on the basis of the wavelet transform of the daily sunspot number series in the 14th-22nd solar cycles. The result shows that the period exists in every cycle and its energy density (amplitude) is comparatively large in the peak section of the cycle. In the distinct cycle, the length and intensity of the period is different, which means that the period varies with time. The near 25-day period is also analyzed and it is found to be time- variable and even not very stable in the peak section of the cycle. The variations of the two periods show that the near 5-month period should not be simply regarded as the multiples of the near 25-day period.

  9. Sunspots and the Newcomb-Benford Law. (Spanish Title: Manchas Solares y la Ley de Newcomb-Benford.) Manchas Solares e a Lei de Newcomb-Benford

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Mauro A.; Lyra, Cássia S.

    2008-12-01

    The Newcomb-Benford's Law (LNB) of first digits is introduced to high school students in an extracurricular activity through the study of sunspots. The LNB establishes that the first digits of various sets of data describing natural occurrences are not distributed uniformly, but according to a logarithmic distribution of probability. The LNB is counter-intuitive and is a good example of how mathematics applied to the study of natural phenomena can provide surprising and unexpected results serving also as a motivating agent in the study of physical sciences. En este trabajo se describe una actividad extracurricular donde se presenta a los estudiantes la ley de los primeros dígitos de Newcomb-Benford (LNB) con el estudio de manchas solares. La LNB establece que los primeros dígitos de algunos tipos de dados de ocurrencia natural no están distribuidos en manera uniforme, pero sí de acuerdo con una distribución logarítmica de probabilidad. La LNB es contra-intuitiva y es un excelente ejemplo de como las matemáticas aplicadas al estudio de fenómenos naturales pueden sorprender al estudiante, sirviendo también como elemento motivador en la educación de ciencias y de matemáticas. Este trabalho descreve uma atividade extracurricular na qual a lei dos primeiros dígitos de Newcomb-Benford (LNB) é introduzida a estudantes através do estudo de manchas solares. A LNB estabelece que os primeiros dígitos de vários tipos de conjunto de dados de ocorrência natural não são distribuídos de maneira uniforme, mas sim de acordo com uma distribuição logarítmica de probabilidade. A LNB é contra-intuitiva e é um ótimo exemplo de como a matemática aplicada ao estudo de fenômenos naturais pode fornecer resultados surpreendentes e inesperados, servindo também como um agente motivador no ensino de ciências e matemática.

  10. Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luhmann, Janet G; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

    2013-05-01

    The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is 'typical' solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive.

  11. Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet G. Luhmann

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive.

  12. Long-term evolution of coronal magnetic fields based on noise storm continuum observations in the 20th and 21st cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boehme, A.

    1989-01-01

    Based on the noise storms of cycles 20 and 21, the long-term variations of the radiation signatures of sunspot groups during a solar cycle were studied. The results suggest that nonpotential loops favoring the emission of a strong type 1 continuum at the low frequencies (less than 100MHz) tend to exist more frequently above the sunspot groups in the later phase of a solar cycle.

  13. Estimate of the upper limit of amplitude of Solar Cycle No. 23

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silbergleit, V. M; Larocca, P. A [Departamento de Fisica, UBA (Argentina)

    2001-07-01

    AA* indices of values greater than 60 10{sup -9} Tesla are considered in order to characterize geomagnetic storms since the available series of these indices comprise the years from 1868 to 1998 (The longest existing interval of geomagnetic activity). By applying the precursor technique we have performed an analysis of the storm periods and the solar activity, obtaining a good correlation between the number of storms ({alpha})(characterized by the AA* indices) and the amplitudes of each solar cycle ({zeta}) and those of the next ({mu}). Using the multiple regression method applied to {alpha}=A+B{zeta} +C{mu}, the constants are calculated and the values found are: A=-33 {+-}18, B= 0.74{+-}0.13 y C= 0.56{+-}0.13. The present statistical method indicates that the current solar cycle (number 23) would have an upper limit of 202{+-}57 monthy mean sunspots. This value indicates that the solar activity would be high causing important effects on the Earth's environment. [Spanish] Se consideran los valores de los indices AA* de valor mayor que 60 10{sup -9} Tesla para caracterizar tormentas geomagneticas ya que las series disponibles de estos indices van desde 1868 hasta 1998 (el mas largo intervalo de la actividad geomagnetica existente). Aplicando la tecnica del precursor hemos realizado un analisis de los periodos de tormentas y la actividad solar obteniendo una buena correlacion entre el numero de tormentas ({alpha}) (caracterizado por los indices AA*) y las amplitudes de los ciclos solares corriente ({zeta}) y el proximo ({mu}). Usando el metodo de regresion multiple aplicado a {alpha}=A+B{zeta} +C{mu}, las consonantes resultaron: A=-33 {+-}18, B= 0.74{+-}0.13 y C= 0.56{+-}0.13. El metodo estadistico presentado indica que el ciclo actual (numero 23) tendria un pico de 202{+-} 57 manchas mensuales promedio. Este valor indica que la actividad solar seria alta produciendo importantes efectos en el medio ambiente terrestre.

  14. Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1988-01-01

    The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

  15. A method to predict amplitude and date of maximum sunspot number

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    A method to predict the amplitude and date of the maximum sunspot number is introduced. The regression analysis of the relationship between the variation rate of monthly sunspot numbers in the initial stage of solar cycles and both of the maximum and the time-length of ascending period of the cycle showed that they are closely correlative. In general, the maximum will be larger and the ascending period will be shorter when the rate is larger. The rate of sunspot numbers in the initial 2 years of the 23rd cycle is thus analyzed based on these grounds and the maximum of the cycle is predicted. For the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers, the maximum will be about 139.2±18.8 and the time-length of ascending period will be about 3.31±0.42 years, that is to say, the maximum will appear around the spring of the year 2000. For the mean monthly ones, the maximum will be near 170.1±22.9 and the time-length of ascending period will be about 3.42±0.46 years, that is to say, the appearing date of the maximum will be later.

  16. Solar Sources of $^{3}$He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events in Solar Cycle 24

    OpenAIRE

    Nitta, Nariaki V.; Mason, Glenn M.; Wang, Linghua; Cohen, Christina M. S.; Wiedenbeck, Mark E.

    2015-01-01

    Using high-cadence extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 $^{3}$He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events at $\\lesssim$1 MeV nucleon$^{-1}$ that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of $^{3}$He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observ...

  17. Resonance of about-weekly human heart rate rhythm with solar activity change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornelissen, G; Halberg, F; Wendt, H W; Bingham, C; Sothern, R B; Haus, E; Kleitman, E; Kleitman, N; Revilla, M A; Revilla, M; Breus, T K; Pimenov, K; Grigoriev, A E; Mitish, M D; Yatsyk, G V; Syutkina, E V

    1996-12-01

    In several human adults, certain solar activity rhythms may influence an about 7-day rhythm in heart rate. When no about-weekly feature was found in the rate of change in sunspot area, a measure of solar activity, the double amplitude of a circadian heart rate rhythm, approximated by the fit of a 7-day cosine curve, was lower, as was heart rate corresponds to about-weekly features in solar activity and/or relates to a sunspot cycle.

  18. The Effect of Sunspot Weighting

    CERN Document Server

    Svalgaard, Leif; Cortesi, Sergio

    2015-01-01

    Waldmeier in 1947 introduced a weighting (on a scale from 1 to 5) of the sunspot count made at Zurich and its auxiliary station Locarno, whereby larger spots were counted more than once. This counting method inflates the relative sunspot number over that which corresponds to the scale set by Wolfer and Brunner. Svalgaard re-counted some 60,000 sunspots on drawings from the reference station Locarno and determined that the number of sunspots reported were 'over counted' by 44% on average, leading to an inflation (measured by a weight factor) in excess of 1.2 for high solar activity. In a double-blind parallel counting by the Locarno observer Cagnotti, we determined that Svalgaard's count closely matches that of Cagnotti's, allowing us to determine the daily weight factor since 2003 (and sporadically before). We find that a simple empirical equation fits the observed weight factors well, and use that fit to estimate the weight factor for each month back to the introduction of weighting in 1947 and thus to be ab...

  19. Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, H G; Lopes, I

    Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity.

  20. On Polar Magnetic Field Reversal and Surface Flux Transport During Solar Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Xudong; Liu, Yang; Zhao, Junwei

    2014-01-01

    As each solar cycle progresses, remnant magnetic flux from active regions (ARs) migrates poleward to cancel the old-cycle polar field. We describe this polarity reversal process during Cycle 24 using four years (2010.33--2014.33) of line-of-sight magnetic field measurements from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. The total flux associated with ARs reached maximum in the north in 2011, more than two years earlier than the south; the maximum is significantly weaker than Cycle 23. The process of polar field reversal is relatively slow, north-south asymmetric, and episodic. We estimate that the global axial dipole changed sign in October 2013; the northern and southern polar fields (mean above 60$^\\circ$ latitude) reversed in November 2012 and March 2014, respectively, about 16 months apart. Notably, the poleward surges of flux in each hemisphere alternated in polarity, giving rise to multiple reversals in the north. We show that the surges of the trailing sunspot polarity tend to correspond to normal mean AR ...

  1. Predicting Solar Cycle 25 using Surface Flux Transport Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imada, Shinsuke; Iijima, Haruhisa; Hotta, Hideyuki; Shiota, Daiko; Kusano, Kanya

    2017-08-01

    It is thought that the longer-term variations of the solar activity may affect the Earth’s climate. Therefore, predicting the next solar cycle is crucial for the forecast of the “solar-terrestrial environment”. To build prediction schemes for the next solar cycle is a key for the long-term space weather study. Recently, the relationship between polar magnetic field at the solar minimum and next solar activity is intensively discussed. Because we can determine the polar magnetic field at the solar minimum roughly 3 years before the next solar maximum, we may discuss the next solar cycle 3years before. Further, the longer term (~5 years) prediction might be achieved by estimating the polar magnetic field with the Surface Flux Transport (SFT) model. Now, we are developing a prediction scheme by SFT model as a part of the PSTEP (Project for Solar-Terrestrial Environment Prediction) and adapting to the Cycle 25 prediction. The predicted polar field strength of Cycle 24/25 minimum is several tens of percent smaller than Cycle 23/24 minimum. The result suggests that the amplitude of Cycle 25 is weaker than the current cycle. We also try to obtain the meridional flow, differential rotation, and turbulent diffusivity from recent modern observations (Hinode and Solar Dynamics Observatory). These parameters will be used in the SFT models to predict the polar magnetic fields strength at the solar minimum. In this presentation, we will explain the outline of our strategy to predict the next solar cycle and discuss the initial results for Cycle 25 prediction.

  2. Parallels among the ``music scores'' of solar cycles, space weather and Earth's climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolláth, Zoltán; Oláh, Katalin; van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia

    2012-07-01

    Solar variability and its effects on the physical variability of our (space) environment produces complex signals. In the indicators of solar activity at least four independent cyclic components can be identified, all of them with temporal variations in their timescales. Time-frequency distributions (see Kolláth & Oláh 2009) are perfect tools to disclose the ``music scores'' in these complex time series. Special features in the time-frequency distributions, like frequency splitting, or modulations on different timescales provide clues, which can reveal similar trends among different indices like sunspot numbers, interplanetary magnetic field strength in the Earth's neighborhood and climate data. On the pseudo-Wigner Distribution (PWD) the frequency splitting of all the three main components (the Gleissberg and Schwabe cycles, and an ~5.5 year signal originating from cycle asymmetry, i.e. the Waldmeier effect) can be identified as a ``bubble'' shaped structure after 1950. The same frequency splitting feature can also be found in the heliospheric magnetic field data and the microwave radio flux.

  3. Solar cycle variations in the ionosphere of Mars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez-Cano, B.; Lester, M.; Witasse, Ol; Blelly, P.L.; Cartacci, M.; Radicella, S.M.; Herraiz, M.

    2016-07-01

    Solar cycle variations in solar radiation create notable changes in the Martian ionosphere, which have been analysed with Mars Express plasma datasets in this paper. In general, lower densities and temperatures of the ionosphere are found during the low solar activity phase, while higher densities and temperatures are found during the high solar activity phase. In this paper, we assess the degree of influence of the long term solar flux variations in the ionosphere of Mars. (Author)

  4. Probability Estimates of Solar Particle Event Doses During a Period of Low Sunspot Number for Thinly-Shielded Spacecraft and Short Duration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

    2016-01-01

    In an earlier paper (Atwell, et al., 2015), we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. These SPEs contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs (Tylka and Dietrich, 2009, Tylka and Dietrich, 2008, and Atwell, et al., 2008). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events having proton energies extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but do not produce secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. In this paper, we consider those SPEs that occurred during 1973-2010 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. In addition, we provide probability estimates of absorbed dose based on mission duration with a 95% confidence level (CL). We also discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft.

  5. Angular Dependence of the Facular-Sunspot Coverage Relation as Derived by MDI Magnetograms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criscuoli, S.

    2016-08-01

    Previous studies have shown that the variation over the solar magnetic activity cycle of the area of facular/network features identified from broad-band and narrow-band imagery is positively correlated with the sunspot area and number, the relation being described as either linear or quadratic. On the other hand, the temporal variation of the spatial distributions of faculae, network and sunspots follows patterns that are less obviously correlated, so that we expect the relation that describes variation of the area coverage of different types of magnetic features to vary with the position over the disk. In this work we employ Michelson Doppler Interferometer (MDI) full-disk magnetograms acquired during solar cycle 23 and at the beginning of cycle 24 to investigate the relation between the coverage of magnetic elements characterized by different amounts of magnetic flux and located at different angular distances from disk center with the sunspot number. In agreement with some previous studies we find that daily data are best described by a quadratic function while data averaged over six months are best described by a linear function. In both cases the coefficients of the fits show large dependence on the position over the disk and the magnetic flux. We also find that toward disk center six-month averaged data show asymmetries between the ascending and the descending phases. The implications for solar irradiance modeling are discussed.

  6. SOLAR SOURCES OF {sup 3}He-RICH SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 24

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nitta, Nariaki V. [Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, Dept/A021S, B/252, 3251 Hanover Street, Palo Alto, CA 94304 (United States); Mason, Glenn M. [Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Wang, Linghua [Institute of Space Physics and Applied Technology, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Cohen, Christina M. S. [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Wiedenbeck, Mark E., E-mail: nitta@lmsal.com, E-mail: glenn.mason@jhuapl.edu, E-mail: wanglhwang@gmail.com, E-mail: cohen@srl.caltech.edu, E-mail: mark.e.wiedenbeck@jpl.nasa.gov [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States)

    2015-06-20

    Using high-cadence EUV images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 {sup 3}He-rich solar energetic particle events at ≲1 MeV nucleon{sup −1} that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of {sup 3}He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observed by Wind. The source locations are further verified in EUV images from the Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory, which provides information on solar activities in the regions not visible from the Earth. Based on AIA observations, {sup 3}He-rich events are not only associated with coronal jets as emphasized in solar cycle 23 studies, but also with more spatially extended eruptions. The properties of the {sup 3}He-rich events do not appear to be strongly correlated with those of the source regions. As in the previous studies, the magnetic connection between the source region and the observer is not always reproduced adequately by the simple potential field source surface model combined with the Parker spiral. Instead, we find a broad longitudinal distribution of the source regions extending well beyond the west limb, with the longitude deviating significantly from that expected from the observed solar wind speed.

  7. Sunspots during the Maunder Minimum from Machina Coelestis by Hevelius

    CERN Document Server

    Carrasco, V M S; Vaquero, J M

    2015-01-01

    We revisited the sunspot observations published by Johannes Hevelius in his book Machina Coelestis (1679) corresponding to the period 1653-1675 (just in the middle of the Maunder Minimum). We show detailed translations of the original Latin texts describing the sunspot records and provide the general context of these sunspot observations. From this source only, we present an estimate of the annual values of the Group Sunspot Number based only on the records that explicitly inform about the presence or absence of sunspots. Although we obtain very low values of the Group Sunspot Number, in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity, these values are significantly higher in general than the values provided by Hoyt and Schatten (1998) for the same period.

  8. Local Helioseismology of Sunspots: Current Status and Perspectives (Invited Review)

    CERN Document Server

    Kosovichev, A G

    2010-01-01

    Mechanisms of formation and stability of sunspots are among the longest-standing and intriguing puzzles of solar physics and astrophysics. Sunspots are controlled by subsurface dynamics hidden from direct observations. Recently, substantial progress in our understanding of physics of the turbulent magnetized plasma has been made by numerical simulations and local helioseismology. Both, the simulations and helioseismic measurements, are extremely challenging, but it becomes clear that the key to understanding the enigma of sunspots is a synergy between models and observations. Recent observations and radiative MHD numerical simulations have provided a convincing explanation to the Evershed flows in sunspot penumbra. Also, they lead to the understanding of sunspots as self-organized magnetic structures in the turbulent plasma of the upper convection zone, which are maintained by a large-scale dynamics. Local helioseismic diagnostics of sunspots still have many uncertainties, some of which are discussed in this ...

  9. Solar Sources of $^{3}$He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events in Solar Cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Nitta, Nariaki V; Wang, Linghua; Cohen, Christina M S; Wiedenbeck, Mark E

    2015-01-01

    Using high-cadence extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 $^{3}$He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events at $\\lesssim$1 MeV nucleon$^{-1}$ that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of $^{3}$He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observed by Wind. The source locations are further verified in EUV images from the Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory, which provides information on solar activities in the regions not visible from the Earth. Based on AIA observations, $^{3}$He-rich events are not only associated with coronal jets as emphasized in solar cycle 23 studies, but also with more spatially extended eruptions. The properties of the $^{3}$He-rich events do not appear to be strongly correlated with those of the source regions. As in the previous...

  10. Sunspot latitudes during the Maunder Minimum: a machine-readable catalogue from previous studies

    OpenAIRE

    J. M. Vaquero; Nogales, J. M.; Sánchez-Bajo, F.

    2015-01-01

    The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 approximately) was a period of very low solar activity and a strong hemispheric asymmetry, with most of sunspots in the southern hemisphere. In this paper, two data sets of sunspot latitudes during the Maunder minimum have been recovered for the international scientific community. The first data set is constituted by latitudes of sunspots appearing in the catalogue published by Gustav Sp\\"orer nearly 130 years ago. The second data set is based on the sunspot lat...

  11. Heliospheric Magnetic Fields, Energetic Particles, and the Solar Cycle

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Peter Kiraly

    2000-09-01

    The heliosphere is the region filled with magnetized plasma of mainly solar origin. It extends from the solar corona to well beyond the planets, and is separated from the interstellar medium by the heliopause. The latter is embedded in a complex and still unexplored boundary region. The characteristics of heliospheric plasma, fields, and energetic particles depend on highly variable internal boundary conditions, and also on quasi-stationary external ones. Both galactic cosmic rays and energetic particles of solar and heliospheric origin are subject to intensity variations over individual solar cycles and also from cycle to cycle. Particle propagation is controlled by spatially and temporally varying interplanetary magnetic fields, frozen into the solar wind. An overview is presented of the main heliospheric components and processes, and also of the relevant missions and data sets. Particular attention is given to flux variations over the last few solar cycles, and to extrapolated effects on the terrestrial environment.

  12. Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marchenko Sergey V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI, we characterize both short-term (solar rotation and long-term (solar cycle changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2 and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2 and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S models.

  13. Solar Cycle Effects on the Near-Earth Plasmas and Space Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-08-06

    1849, p. 234). 2. Schwabe, M., Bern Mitt (1851, p. 41). 3. Wolf, A. R., Astr Mitt. Eidg. Stern., Vol. 10 (1858, p. 6). 4. Galilei , G., "Letters on...Sunspots, 1612," in Discoveries and Opinions of Galileo , Dou- bleday and Company, Inc., New York, 1957, pp. 106-119. 5. Maggs, W, W, "Biggest Solar

  14. Hysteresis Effect in the Activity Indices of the Atmospheres of the Sun and Solar-Type Stars During the Rising and Falling Phases of Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruevich, E. A.; Yakunina, G. V.

    2016-09-01

    The hysteresis effect that shows up as a nonunique relationship among the emissions from the photosphere, chromosphere, and corona during the rising and falling phases of solar and stellar activity is analyzed. The following solar indices are analyzed and compared in different phases of the cycle: the radiative flux in the hydrogen Lyman alpha line FLα, radio emission at 10.7 cm F10.7, the sunspot number SSN, the radiative flux in the 530.0 nm green coronal line F530.3, the solar constant TSI, and the relative flux ratio c/w (ratio of the fluxes in the center and in the wings) for the 280 nm Mg II line. In stars with cycles, a hysteresis effect is observed between the CaII chromospheric S-activity index for stars in the Mount Wilson HK project and the photospheric flux Fph for these stars.

  15. Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Observations and Models

    CERN Document Server

    Marchenko, S V; Lean, J L

    2016-01-01

    Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nm during the on-going Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 and SORCE instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 and SATIRE-S models.

  16. Re-examining Sunspot Tilt Angle to Include Anti-Hale Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    McClintock, Bruce H; Li, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li & Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360{\\deg} rather than the more common $\\pm$ 90{\\deg}. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitu...

  17. Sunspots, Starspots, and Elemental Abundances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doschek, George A.; Warren, Harry P.

    2017-08-01

    The composition of plasma in solar and stellar atmospheres is not fixed, but varies from feature to feature. These variations are organized by the First Ionization Potential (FIP) of the element. Solar measurements often indicate that low FIP elements (10 eV, such as C, N, O, Ar, He) compared to abundances in the photosphere. Stellar observations have also shown similar enrichments. An inverse FIP effect, where the low FIP elements are depleted, has been observed in stellar coronae of stars believed to have large starspots in their photospheres. The abundances are important for determining radiative loss rates in models, tracing the origin of the slow solar wind, and for understanding wave propagation in the chromosphere and corona. Recently, inverse FIP effects have been discovered in the Sun (Doschek, Warren, & Feldman 2015, ApJ, 808, L7) from spectra obtained by the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on the Hinode spacecraft. The inverse FIP regions seem always to be near sunspots and cover only a very small area (characteristic length = a few arcseconds). However, in pursuing the search for inverse FIP regions, we have found that in some sunspot groups the coronal abundance at a temperature of 3-4 MK can be near photospheric over much larger areas of the sun near the sunspots (e.g., 6,000 arcsec2). Also, sometimes the abundances at 3-4 MK are in between coronal and photospheric values. This can occur in small areas of an active region. It is predicted (Laming 2015, Sol. Phys., 12, 2) that the FIP effect should be highly variable in the corona. Several examples of coronal abundance variations are presented. Our work indicates that a comprehensive re-investigation of solar abundances is highly desirable. This work is supported by a NASA Hinode grant.

  18. Leading and following sunspots: their magnetic properties and ultra-violet emission above them

    CERN Document Server

    Zagainova, Iu S; Obridko, V N

    2015-01-01

    Using SDO/HMI and SDO/AIA data for sunspot groups of the 24th solar cycle, we analyzed magnetic properties and He II 304 emission in leading and following sunspots separately. Simultaneous examination of umbral magnetic properties and atmospheric characteristics above the umbrae draws on average differences in He II 304 contrast over the umbrae of leading and following spots we discovered earlier for solar cycle 23 sunspot groups based on SOHO data as well as on the hypothetical relationship between contrast asymmetry and magnetic field asymmetry in umbrae. We use a more accurate and faster algorithm for solving the pi-uncertainty problem of the transverse magnetic field direction in this research producing new results on differences in magnetic field properties between magneto-conjugated leaders and followers. We found that, in ~78% of the cases, the minimum (over the umbra area) angle between the magnetic field line and the normal to the solar surface, a_min, is smaller in the leading spots, so the magnetic...

  19. The crucial role of surface magnetic fields for the solar dynamo

    OpenAIRE

    Cameron, Robert; Schüssler, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    Sunspots and the plethora of other phenomena occuring in the course of the 11-year cycle of solar activity are a consequence of the emergence of magnetic flux at the solar surface. The observed orientations of bipolar sunspot groups imply that they originate from toroidal (azimuthally orientated) magnetic flux in the convective envelope of the Sun. We show that the net toroidal magnetic flux generated by differential rotation within a hemisphere of the convection zone is determined by the eme...

  20. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    The sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles (9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 yr). The side frequencies are related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (9.93 yr) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (11.86 yr). A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium known as Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as 17 115-year long oscillations found in temperature recon...

  1. Anomalous Surge of the White-Light Corona at the Onset of the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, P.; Boclet, B.; Wojak, J.; Vibert, D.

    2017-04-01

    In late 2014, when the current Solar Cycle 24 entered its declining phase, the white-light corona as observed by the LASCO-C2 coronagraph underwent an unexpected surge that increased its global radiance by 60%, reaching a peak value comparable to the peak values of the more active Solar Cycle 23. A comparison of the temporal variation of the white-light corona with the variations of several indices and proxies of solar activity indicate that it best matches the variation of the total magnetic field. The daily variations point to a localized enhancement or bulge in the electron density that persisted for several months. Carrington maps of the radiance and of the HMI photospheric field allow connecting this bulge to the emergence of the large sunspot complex AR 12192 in October 2014, the largest since AR 6368 observed in November 1990. The resulting unusually high increase of the magnetic field and the distortion of the neutral sheet in a characteristic inverse S-shape caused the coronal plasma to be trapped along a similar pattern. A 3D reconstruction of the electron density based on time-dependent solar rotational tomography supplemented by 2D inversion of the coronal radiance confirms the morphology of the bulge and reveals that its level was well above the standard models of a corona of the maximum type, by typically a factor of 3. A rather satisfactory agreement is found with the results of the thermodynamic MHD model produced by Predictive Sciences, although discrepancies are noted. The specific configuration of the magnetic field that led to the coronal surge resulted from the interplay of various factors prevailing at the onset of the declining phase of the solar cycles, which was particularly efficient in the case of Solar Cycle 24.

  2. The cause of the weak solar cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Jiang, Jie; Schuessler, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    The ongoing 11-year cycle of solar activity is considerably less vigorous than the three cycles before. It was preceded by a very deep activity minimum with a low polar magnetic flux, the source of the toroidal field responsible for solar magnetic activity in the subsequent cycle. Simulation of the evolution of the solar surface field shows that the weak polar fields and thus the weakness of the present cycle 24 are mainly caused by a number of bigger bipolar regions emerging at low latitudes with a `wrong' (i.e., opposite to the majority for this cycle) orientation of their magnetic polarities in the North-South direction, which impaired the growth of the polar field. These regions had a particularly strong effect since they emerged within $\\pm10^\\circ$ latitude from the solar equator.

  3. Polar Coronal Holes During Solar Cycles 22 and 23

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun Zhang; J. Woch; S. Solanki

    2005-01-01

    Data from the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS) on Ulysses and synoptic maps from Kitt Peak are used to analyze the polar coronal holes of solar activity cycles 22 and 23 (from 1990 to end of 2003). In the beginning of the declining phase of solar cycles 22 and 23, the north polar coronal holes (PCHs) appear about one year earlier than the ones in the south polar region.The solar wind velocity and the solar wind ionic charge composition exhibit a characteristic dependence on the solar wind source position within a PCH. From the center toward the boundary of a young PCH, the solar wind velocity decreases,coinciding with a shift of the ionic charge composition toward higher charge states.However, for an old PCH, the ionic charge composition does not show any obvious change, although the latitude evolution of the velocity is similar to that of a young PCH.

  4. Solar activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usoskin, I. G.; Gallet, Y.; Lopes, F.; Kovaltsov, G. A.; Hulot, G.

    2016-03-01

    Aims: Cosmogenic isotopes provide the only quantitative proxy for analyzing the long-term solar variability over a centennial timescale. While essential progress has been achieved in both measurements and modeling of the cosmogenic proxy, uncertainties still remain in the determination of the geomagnetic dipole moment evolution. Here we aim at improving the reconstruction of solar activity over the past nine millennia using a multi-proxy approach. Methods: We used records of the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, current numerical models of the isotope production and transport in Earth's atmosphere, and available geomagnetic field reconstructions, including a new reconstruction relying on an updated archeo- and paleointensity database. The obtained series were analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method to study the millennial-scale trends. Results: A new reconstruction of the geomagnetic dipole field moment, referred to as GMAG.9k, is built for the last nine millennia. New reconstructions of solar activity covering the last nine millennia, quantified in terms of sunspot numbers, are presented and analyzed. A conservative list of grand minima and maxima is also provided. Conclusions: The primary components of the reconstructed solar activity, as determined using the SSA method, are different for the series that are based on 14C and 10Be. This shows that these primary components can only be ascribed to long-term changes in the terrestrial system and not to the Sun. These components have therefore been removed from the reconstructed series. In contrast, the secondary SSA components of the reconstructed solar activity are found to be dominated by a common ≈2400-year quasi-periodicity, the so-called Hallstatt cycle, in both the 14C and 10Be based series. This Hallstatt cycle thus appears to be related to solar activity. Finally, we show that the grand minima and maxima occurred intermittently over the studied period, with clustering near lows and highs

  5. 25 MeV Solar Proton Events in Cycle 24 and Previous Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, I. G.; Cane, H. V.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.

    2014-12-01

    We summarize observations of nearly 1000 solar energetic particle events that include 25 MeV protons made by Goddard instruments on various spacecraft (IMPs IV, V, 7, 8, ISEE-3) and by other instruments on SOHO, since 1967, encompassing solar cycles 20 to 24. We also include recent observations of such events from the STEREO spacecraft. These extended observations place studies focusing on Cycles 23 and 24 in a broader context. For example, the time distribution of 25 MeV proton events varies from cycle to cycle such that each cycle is unique. In the current cycle, ~25 MeV proton events were absent during the preceding solar minimum, whereas earlier minima showed occasional, often reasonably intense events, and there have been, so far, fewer exceptionally intense events compared to Cycles 22 and 23, though Cycle 21 also apparently lacked such events.

  6. Evolution of the solar radius during the solar cycle 24 rise time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meftah, Mustapha

    2015-08-01

    One of the real motivations to observe the solar radius is the suspicion that it might be variable. Possible temporal variations of the solar radius are important as an indicator of internal energy storage and as a mechanism for changes in the total solar irradiance. Measurements of the solar radius are of great interest within the scope of the debate on the role of the Sun in climate change. Solar energy input dominates the surface processes (climate, ocean circulation, wind, etc.) of the Earth. Thus, it appears important to know on what time scales the solar radius and other fundamental solar parameters, like the total solar irradiance, vary in order to better understand and assess the origin and mechanisms of the terrestrial climate changes. The current solar cycle is probably going to be the weakest in 100 years, which is an unprecedented opportunity for studying the variability of the solar radius during this period. This paper presents more than four years of solar radius measurements obtained with a satellite and a ground-based observatory during the solar cycle 24 rise time. Our measurements show the benefit of simultaneous measurements obtained from ground and space observatories. Space observations are a priori most favourable, however, space entails also technical challenges, a harsh environment, and a finite mission lifetime. The evolution of the solar radius during the rising phase of the solar cycle 24 show small variations that are out of phase with solar activity.

  7. Sunspot Bright Points

    CERN Document Server

    Choudhary, Debi Prasad

    2010-01-01

    We used the flux calibrated images through the Broad Band Filter Imager and Stokes Polarimeter data obtained with the Solar Optical Telescope onboard the Hinode spacecraft to study the properties of bright points in and around the sunspots. The well isolated bright points were selected and classified as umbral dot, peripheral umbral dot, penumbral grains and G-band bright point depending on their location. Most of the bright points are smaller than about 150 km. The larger points are mostly associated with the penumbral features. The bright points are not uniformly distributed over the umbra but preferentially located around the penumbral boundary and in the fast decaying parts of umbra. The color temperature of the bright points, derived using the continuum irradiance, are in the range of 4600 K to 6600 K with cooler ones located in the umbra. The temperature increases as a function of distance from the center to outside. The G-band, CN-band and CaII H flux of the bright points as a function of their blue ba...

  8. Reconstruction of Subdecadal Changes in Sunspot Numbers Based on the NGRIP 10Be Record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Inceoglu, Fadil; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou; Karoff, Christoffer

    2014-01-01

    , to reconstruct both long-term and subdecadal changes in sunspot numbers (SSNs). We compare three different approaches for reconstructing subdecadal-scale changes in SSNs, including a linear approach and two approaches based on the hysteresis effect, i.e. models with ellipse-linear and ellipse relationships......Sunspot observations since 1610 A.D. show that the solar magnetic activity displays long-term changes, from Maunder Minimum-like low-activity states to Modern Maximum-like high-activity episodes, as well as short-term variations, such as the pronounced 11-year periodicity. Information on changes...... the actual solar cycles and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) records of the 10Be flux to reconstruct the solar modulation strength (Φ), which describes the modulation of GCRs throughout the heliosphere...

  9. A New Approach in Understanding Growth and Decay of the Sunspots

    CERN Document Server

    Hiremath, K M; R, M

    2010-01-01

    From the previous study (Hiremath 2009b; Hiremath 2010), on the genesis of solar cycle and activity phenomena, it is understood that sunspots are formed at different depths by superposition of Alfven wave perturbations of a strong toroidal field structure in the convective envelope and after attaining a critical strength, due to buoyancy, raise toward the surface along the rotational isocontours that have positive (0.7-0.935 $R_{\\odot}$) and negative (0.935-1.0 $R_{\\odot}$) rotational gradients. Owing to physical conditions in these two rotational gradients, from the equation of magnetic induction, sunspot's area growth and decay problem is solved separately. It is found that rate of growth of sunspot's area during its evolution at different depths is function of steady and fluctuating parts of Lorentzian force of the ambient medium, fluctuations in meridional flow velocity, radial variation of rotational gradient and $cot(\\vartheta)$ (where $\\vartheta$ is co-latitude). While rate of decay of sunspot's area a...

  10. North–South Distribution of Solar Flares during Cycle 23

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Bhuwan Joshi; P. Pant; P. K. Manoharan

    2006-06-01

    In this paper, we investigate the spatial distribution of solar flares in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun that occurred during the period 1996 to 2003. This period of investigation includes the ascending phase, the maximum and part of the descending phase of solar cycle 23. It is revealed that the flare activity during this cycle is low compared to the previous solar cycle, indicating the violation of Gnevyshev–Ohl rule. The distribution of flares with respect to heliographic latitudes shows a significant asymmetry between northern and southern hemisphere which is maximum during the minimum phase of the solar cycle. The present study indicates that the activity dominates the northern hemisphere in general during the rising phase of the cycle (1997–2000). The dominance of northern hemisphere shifted towards the southern hemisphere after the solar maximum in 2000 and remained there in the successive years. Although the annual variations in the asymmetry time series during cycle 23 are quite different from cycle 22, they are comparable to cycle 21.

  11. Variability of mesospheric water vapor above Bern in relation to the 27-day solar rotation cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lainer, Martin; Hocke, Klemens; Kämpfer, Niklaus

    2016-06-01

    Many studies investigated solar-terrestrial responses (thermal state, O3, OH, H2O) with emphasis on the tropical upper atmosphere. In this paper the focus is switched to water vapor in the mesosphere at a mid-latitudinal location. Eight years of water vapor profile measurements above Bern (46.88 ° N / 7.46 ° E) are investigated to study oscillations with the focus on periods between 10 and 50 days. Different spectral analyses revealed prominent features in the 27-day oscillation band, which are enhanced in the upper mesosphere (above 0.1 hPa, ∼ 64 km) during the rising sunspot activity of solar cycle 24. Local as well as zonal mean Aura MLS observations support these results by showing a similar behavior. The relationship between mesospheric water and the solar Lyman-α flux is studied by comparing the similarity of their temporal oscillations. The H2O oscillation is negatively correlated to solar Lyman-α oscillation with a correlation coefficient of up to - 0.3 to - 0.4, and the phase lag is 6-10 days at 0.04 hPa. The confidence level of the correlation is ≥ 99 %. This finding supports the assumption that the 27-day oscillation in Lyman-α causes a periodical photodissociation loss in mesospheric water. Wavelet power spectra, cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis (WTC) complete our study. More periods of high common wavelet power of H2O and solar Lyman-α are present when amplitudes of the Lyman-α flux increase. Since this is not a measure of physical correlation a more detailed view on WTC is necessary, where significant (two sigma level) correlations occur intermittently in the 27 and 13-day band with variable phase lock behavior. Large Lyman-α oscillations appeared after the solar superstorm in July 2012 and the H2O oscillations show a well pronounced anti-correlation. The competition between advective transport and photodissociation loss of mesospheric water vapor may explain the sometimes variable phase relationship of mesospheric H2

  12. Solar Cycle Spectral Irradiance Variation and Stratospheric Ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolarski, R. S.; Swartz, W. H.; Jackman, C. H.; Fleming, E. L.

    2011-12-01

    Recent measurements from the SIM instrument on the SORCE satellite have been interpreted by Harder et al (Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07801, doi:10.1029/2008GL036797, 2009) as implying a different spectral irradiance variation over the solar cycle than that put forward by Lean (Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2425-2428, 2000). When we inserted this new wavelength dependent solar cycle variation into our 3D CCM we found a different solar cycle dependence of the ozone concentration as a function of altitude from that we derived using the traditional Lean wavelength dependence. Examination of these results led us to realize that the main issue is the solar cycle variation of radiation at wavelengths less than 240 nm versus the solar cycle variation of radiation at wavelengths between 240 nm and 300 nm. The impact of wavelengths less than 240 nm occurs through photodissociation of O2 leading to the production of ozone. The impact of wavelengths between 240 nm and 300 nm occurs through photodissociation of O3 leading to an increase in O atoms and enhanced ozone destruction. Thus one wavelength region gives an in-phase relationship of ozone with the solar cycle while the other wavelength region gives an out-of-phase relationship of ozone with the solar cycle. We have used the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) photochemistry transport model to examine this relationship in more detail. We calculate the altitude and latitude sensitivity of ozone to changes in the solar UV irradiance as a function of wavelength. These results can be used to construct the ozone response to arbitrary wavelength dependencies of solar UV variation.

  13. Major revision of sunspot number: implication for the ionosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyaeva, Tamara

    2016-07-01

    Recently on 1st July, 2015, a major revision of the historical sunspot number series has been carried out as discussed in [Clette et al., Revisiting the Sunspot Number. A 400-Year Perspective on the Solar Cycle, Space Science Reviews, 186, Issue 1-4, pp. 35-103, 2014). The revised SSN2.0 dataset is provided along with the former SSN1.0 data at http://sidc.oma.be/silso/. The SSN2.0 values exceed the former conventional SSN1.0 data so that new SSNs are greater in many cases than the solar radio flux F10.7 values which pose a problem of SSN2.0 implementation as a driver of the International Reference Ionosphere, IRI, its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, NeQuick model, Russian Standard Ionosphere, SMI. In particular, the monthly predictions of the F2 layer peak are based on input of the ITU-R (former CCIR) and URSI maps. The CCIR and URSI maps coefficients are available for each month of the year, and for two levels of solar activity: low (SSN = 0) and high (SSN = 100). SSN is the monthly smoothed sunspot number from the SSN1.0 data set used as an index of the level of solar activity. For every SSN different from 0 or 100 the critical frequency foF2 and the M3000F2 radio propagation factor used for the peak height hmF2 production may be evaluated by an interpolation. The ionospheric proxies of the solar activity IG12 index or Global Electron Content GEC12 index, driving the ionospheric models, are also calibrated with the former SSN1.0 data. The paper presents a solar proxy intended to calibrate SSN2.0 data set to fit F10.7 solar radio flux and/or SSN1.0 data series. This study is partly supported by TUBITAK EEEAG 115E915.

  14. Encore of the Bashful ballerina in solar cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mursula, K.; Virtanen, I. I.

    2009-04-01

    The rotation averaged location of the heliospheric current sheet has been found to be shifted systematically southward for about three years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This behaviour, called by the concept of the Bashful ballerina, has earlier been shown to be valid at least during the active solar cycle of the last century since the late 1920s. Recently, Zhao et al have analysed the WSO observations and conclude that there is no southward coning in HCS or north-south difference in the heliospheric magnetic field during the late declining phase of solar cycle 23. In disagreement with these results, we find that there is a similar but smaller southward shift of the HCS and dominance of the northern field area as in all previous solar cycles. The present smaller asymmetry is in agreement with an earlier observation based on long-term geomagnetic activity that solar hemispheric asymmetry is larger during highly active solar cycles. Moreover, we connect the smallness of shift to the structure of the solar magnetic field with an exceptionally large tilt. We also discuss the cause of the differences between the two approaches reaching different conclusions.

  15. Observation of Hysteresis between Solar Activity Indicators and -mode Frequency Shifts for Solar Cycle 22

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S. C. Tripathy; Brajesh Kumar; Kiran Jain; A. Bhatnagar

    2000-09-01

    Using intermediate degree p-mode frequency data sets for solar cycle 22, we find that the frequency shifts and magnetic activity indicators show a ``hysteresis" phenomenon. It is observed that the magnetic indices follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle while for radiative indices, the separation between the paths are well within the error limits.

  16. Solar cycle lengths and climate: A reference revisited - Reply

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, K.; Friis-Christensen, Eigil

    2000-01-01

    In a critical assessment of the results regarding a possible association between solar activity variations and climate by Friis-Christensen and Lassen [1991] and Lassen and Friis-Christensen [1995], Laut and Gundermann [this issue] conclude that the correlation between the solar cycle length para...

  17. Role of the vapor compression cycle in solar energy utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kush, Jr, E A

    1978-01-01

    The vapor compression cycle lends itself to solar energy utilization in two important ways. Its ability to utilize a relatively low temperature heat supply to produce space heating via heat pumps allows the use of solar input to the evaporator to provide potential Coefficients of Performance which are 2 to 3 times higher than present electric driven heat pumps, and the use of relatively inexpensive solar collectors is possible since the collection temperatures can be low grade. Secondly, the compression process of the vapor cycle can be powered by a solar-driven heat engine, typically using a Rankine cycle, for solar cooling purposes. Discriminating coupling of solar with vapor compression allows the well-developed technology and manufacturing capability of the vapor compression industry to be brought into play in the solar field, widening its base and promoting its diversification. The cycle thermodynamics, potential practical hardware, and R and D projects in both of these areas are reviewed. Particular attention is given to the Solar Assisted Heat Pump and its characteristics and the heat pump simulator activities at Brookhaven National Laboratory.

  18. A new hypothesis of sunspot formation

    CERN Document Server

    Zhukov, V I

    2003-01-01

    The process of sunspot formation is considered with the account of heat effects. According to the Le Chatelier principle, a local overheating must precede to the cooling of solar surface in the places of sunspot formation. The sunspot dynamics is a process close to the surface nucleate-free boiling in a thin layer with formation of bubbles (or craters), so we focus on the analogy between these two processes. Solar spots and surface nucleate-free boiling in a thin layer have similarities in formation conditions, results of impact on the surface were they have been formed, periodicity, and their place in the hierarchy of self-organization in complex systems. The difference is in the working medium and method of channelling of extra energy from the overheated surface -for boiling process, the energy is forwarded to generation of vapor, and in sunspots the solar energy is consumed to formation of a strong magnetic field. This analogy explains the problem of a steady brightness (temperature) of a spot that is inde...

  19. Forecasting decadal and shorter time-scale solar cycle features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dikpati, Mausumi

    2016-07-01

    Solar energetic particles and magnetic fields reach the Earth through the interplanetary medium and affect it in various ways, producing beautiful aurorae, but also electrical blackouts and damage to our technology-dependent economy. The root of energetic solar outputs is the solar activity cycle, which is most likely caused by dynamo processes inside the Sun. It is a formidable task to accurately predict the amplitude, onset and peak timings of a solar cycle. After reviewing all solar cycle prediction methods, including empirical as well as physical model-based schemes, I will describe what we have learned from both validation and nonvalidation of cycle 24 forecasts, and how to refine the model-based schemes for upcoming cycle 25 forecasts. Recent observations indicate that within a solar cycle there are shorter time-scale 'space weather' features, such as bursts of various forms of activity with approximately one year periodicity. I will demonstrate how global tachocline dynamics could play a crucial role in producing such space weather. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

  20. Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused by solar inertial motion?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Charvátová

    Full Text Available A solar activity cycle of about 2400 years has until now been of uncertain origin. Recent results indicate it is caused by solar inertial motion. First we describe the 178.7-year basic cycle of solar motion. The longer cycle, over an 8000 year interval, is found to average 2402.2 years. This corresponds to the Jupiter/Heliocentre/Barycentre alignments (9.8855 × 243. Within each cycle an exceptional segment of 370 years has been found characterized by a looping pattern by a trefoil or quasitrefoil geometry. Solar activity, evidenced by 14C tree-ring proxies, shows the same pattern. Solar motion is computable in advance, so this provides a basis for future predictive assessments. The next 370-year segment will occur between AD 2240 and 2610.

    Key words: Solar physics (celestial mechanics

  1. Looking for granulation and periodicity imprints in the sunspot time series

    CERN Document Server

    Lopes, Ilidio

    2015-01-01

    The sunspot activity is the end result of the cyclic destruction and regeneration of magnetic fields by the dynamo action. We propose a new method to analyze the daily sunspot areas data recorded since 1874. By computing the power spectral density of daily data series using the Mexican hat wavelet, we found a power spectrum with a well-defined shape, characterized by three features. The first term is the 22 yr solar magnetic cycle, estimated in our work to be of 18.43 yr. The second term is related to the daily volatility of sunspots. This term is most likely produced by the turbulent motions linked to the solar granulation. The last term corresponds to a periodic source associated with the solar magnetic activity, for which the maximum of power spectral density occurs at 22.67 days. This value is part of the 22-27 day periodicity region that shows an above-average intensity in the power spectra. The origin of this 22.67 day periodic process is not clearly identified, and there is a possibility that it can be...

  2. Magnetic topology of a naked sunspot: Is it really naked?

    CERN Document Server

    Dalda, A Sainz; Tarbell, T D; 10.1088/2041-8205/746/1/L13

    2012-01-01

    The high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution achieved by Hinode instruments give much better understanding of the behavior of some elusive solar features, such as pores and naked sunspots. Their fast evolution and, in some cases, their small sizes have made their study difficult. The moving magnetic features, despite being more dynamic structures, have been studied during the last 40 years. They have been always associated with sunspots, especially with the penumbra. However, a recent observation of a naked sunspot (one with no penumbra) has shown MMF activity. The authors of this reported observation expressed their reservations about the explanation given to the bipolar MMF activity as an extension of the penumbral filaments into the moat. How can this type of MMFs exist when a penumbra does not? In this paper, we study the full magnetic and (horizontal) velocity topology of the same naked sunspot, showing how the existence of a magnetic field topology similar to that observed in sunspots can explain ...

  3. Solar cycle full-shape predictions: a global error evaluation for cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Sello, Stefano

    2016-01-01

    There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the predictions collected by the NOAA/SEC prediction panel, using observed data up to October 2010. The aim of the present paper is to give a quantitative evaluation, a posteriori, of the performances of these prediction methods using a specific global error, updated on a monthly basis, which is a measure of the global performance on the predicted shape (both amplitude and phase) of the solar cycle. We suggest also the use of a percent cycle similarity degree, to better evaluate the predicted shape of the solar cycle curve.

  4. The Complexity of Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2017-08-01

    How far in advance can the sunspot number be predicted with any degree of confidence? Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Statistical and timeseries analyses of the sunspot number are often used to predict solar activity. These methods have not been completely successful as the solar dynamo changes over time and one cycle's sunspots are not a faithful predictor of the next cycle's activity. In some ways, using these techniques is similar to asking whether the stock market can be predicted. It has been shown that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) can be more accurately predicted during periods when it obeys certain statistical properties than at other times. The Hurst exponent is one such way to partition the data. Another measure of the complexity of a timeseries is the fractal dimension. We can use these measures of complexity to compare the sunspot number with other solar and geomagnetic indices. Our concentration is on how trends are removed by the various techniques, either internally or externally. Comparisons of the statistical properties of the various solar indices may guide us in understanding how the dynamo manifests in the various indices and the Sun.

  5. ISCC Kuraymat Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Power Plant in Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brakmann, G.

    2006-07-01

    The New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) of Egypt intends to implement an Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Power Plant, ISCC Kuraymat, to be located about 95 km south of Cairo, on the eastern side of the river Nile, at a northern latitude of 29{sup o} 16' and an eastern longitude of 31{sup o} 15'. The complete ISCC Project shall be implemented in three (3) contract lots: One (1) Contract Lot for Solar Island as EPC cum OandM contract for engineering, procurement, construction, testing, commissioning and five (5) years operation and maintenance; (Two contracts will be used for this Lot (Solar Island), one for EPC and one for the OandM part of the Lot.) The Solar Island shall consist of a parabolic trough solar field capable to generate about 110 MW (thermal) of solar heat at a temperature of 393{sup o}C, the related IandC and control room and the heat transfer fluid (HTF) system up to the HTF inlet and outlet flanges of the Solar Heat Exchanger(s). The Contractor for Solar Island shall guarantee the supply of solar heat to the Solar Heat Exchanger(s) as a function of normal direct solar irradiation (DNI) and of solar position. One (1) Contract for Combined Cycle Island as EPC contract for engineering, procurement, construction, testing and commissioning and extended two (2) year warranty period. The Combined Cycle Island shall consist of one (1) or two (2) gas turbine(s) with ISO rating of about 80 MWe (total), one (1) or two (2) heat recovery steam generator(s) (HRSG), one (1) steam turbine of about 70 MWe, solar heat exchanger(s) capable to absorb about 110 MW (thermal) of solar heat plus all associated balance of plant equipment. The Contractor(s) for Combined Cycle Island shall guarantee the supply of electricity and the heat rate as a function of ambient temperature and as a function of solar heat supply from the Solar Island. One (1) Contract for Combined Cycle Island as OandM contract for five (5) year operation and maintenance. (Author)

  6. XMM-Newton detects X-ray 'solar cycle' in distant star

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-05-01

    The Sun as observed by SOHO hi-res Size hi-res: 708 Kb The Sun as observed by SOHO The Sun as observed by the ESA/NASA SOHO observatory near the minimum of the solar cycle (left) and near its maximum (right). The signs of solar activity near the maximum are clearly seen. New XMM-Newton observations suggest that this behaviour may be typical of stars like the Sun, such as HD 81809 in the constellation Hydra. Solar flare - 4 November 2003 The huge flare produced on 4 November 2003 This image of the Sun, obtained by the ESA/NASA SOHO observatory, shows the powerful X-ray flare that took place on 4 November 2003. The associated coronal mass ejection, coming out of the Sun at a speed of 8.2 million kilometres per hour, hit the Earth several hours later and caused disruptions to telecommunication and power distribution lines. New XMM-Newton observations suggest that this behaviour may be typical of stars like the Sun, such as HD 81809 in the constellation Hydra. Since the time Galileo discovered sunspots, in 1610, astronomers have measured their number, size and location on the disc of the Sun. Sunspots are relatively cooler areas on the Sun that are observed as dark patches. Their number rises and falls with the level of activity of the Sun in a cycle of about 11 years. When the Sun is very active, large-scale phenomena take place, such as the flares and coronal mass ejections observed by the ESA/NASA solar observatory SOHO. These events release a large amount of energy and charged particles that hit the Earth and can cause powerful magnetic storms, affecting radio communications, power distribution lines and even our weather and climate. During the solar cycle, the X-ray emission from the Sun varies by a large amount (about a factor of 100) and is strongest when the cycle is at its peak and the surface of the Sun is covered by the largest number of spots. ESA's X-ray observatory, XMM-Newton, has now shown for the first time that this cyclic X-ray behaviour is common to

  7. Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

    2002-07-01

    In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

  8. On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number - A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    1990-01-01

    The level of skill in predicting the size of the sunspot cycle is investigated for the two types of precursor techniques, single variate and bivariate fits, both applied to cycle 22. The present level of growth in solar activity is compared to the mean level of growth (cycles 10-21) and to the predictions based on the precursor techniques. It is shown that, for cycle 22, both single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) and bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude smaller than that observed for cycle 19, and possibly for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it were a +2.6 sigma cycle (maximum amplitude of about 225), which means that either it will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques or its deviation relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months.

  9. Organic Rankine Cycle with Solar Heat Storage in Paraffin Way

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin LUCA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an electricity generation system based on an Organic Rankine Cycle and proposed storing the amount of the heat produced by the solar panels using large volume of paraffin wax. The proposed working fluid is R-134a refrigerant. The cycle operates at very low temperatures. A efficiency of 6,55% was obtained.

  10. Influence of the Atmospheric Mass on the High Energy Cosmic Ray Muons during a Solar Cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Maghrabi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The rate of the detected cosmic ray muons depends on the atmospheric mass, height of pion production level, and temperature. Corrections for the changes in these parameters are importance to know the properties of the primary cosmic rays. In this paper, the effect of atmospheric mass, represented here by the atmospheric pressure, on the cosmic ray was studied using data from the KACST muon detector during the 2002–2012 period. The analysis was conducted by calculating the barometric coefficient (α using regression analysis between the two parameters. The variation of α over different time scales was investigated. The results revealed a seasonal cycle of α with a maximum in September and a minimum in March. Data from Adelaide muon detector were used, and different monthly variation was found. The barometric coefficient displays considerable variability at the interannual scale. Study of the annual variations of α indicated cyclic variation with maximums between 2008 and 2009 and minimums between 2002 and 2003. This variable tendency is found to be anticorrelated with the solar activity, represented by the sunspot number. This finding was compared with the annual trend of α for the Adelaide muon detector for the same period of time, and a similar trend was found.

  11. The Sun's interior structure and dynamics, and the solar cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Broomhall, A -M; Howe, R; Norton, A A; Thompson, M J

    2014-01-01

    The Sun's internal structure and dynamics can be studied with helioseismology, which uses the Sun's natural acoustic oscillations to build up a profile of the solar interior. We discuss how solar acoustic oscillations are affected by the Sun's magnetic field. Careful observations of these effects can be inverted to determine the variations in the structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior as the solar cycle progresses. Observed variations in the structure and dynamics can then be used to inform models of the solar dynamo, which are crucial to our understanding of how the Sun's magnetic field is generated and maintained.

  12. SYSTEMATIC REGULARITY OF HEMISPHERIC SUNSPOT AREAS OVER THE PAST 140 YEARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, L. H.; Xiang, Y. Y. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011 (China); Qu, Z. N. [Department of Physics, School of Science, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Zigong 643000 (China); An, J. M., E-mail: znqu@ynao.ac.cn [School of Software Engineering, Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences, Chongqing 402160 (China)

    2016-03-15

    Solar magnetic activity varies with time in the two hemispheres in different ways. The hemispheric interconnection of solar activity phenomena provides an important clue to understanding the dynamical behavior of solar dynamo actions. In this paper, several analysis approaches are proposed to analyze the systematic regularity of hemispheric asynchronism and amplitude asymmetry of long-term sunspot areas during solar cycles 9–24. It is found that, (1) both the hemispheric asynchronism and the amplitude asymmetry of sunspot areas are prevalent behaviors and are not anomalous, but the hemispheric asynchronism exhibits a much more regular behavior than the amplitude asymmetry; (2) the phase-leading hemisphere returns back to the identical hemisphere every 8 solar cycles, and the secular periodic pattern of hemispheric phase differences follows 3 (south leading) + 5 (north leading) solar cycles, which probably corresponds to the Gleissberg cycle; and (3) the pronounced periodicities of (absolute and normalized) asymmetry indices and lines of synchronization (LOSs) are not identical: the significant periodic oscillations are 80.65 ± 6.31, 20.91 ± 0.40, and 13.45 ± 0.16 years for the LOS values, and 51.34 ± 2.48, 8.83/8.69 ± 0.07, and 3.77 ± 0.02 years for the (absolute and normalized) asymmetry indices. The analysis results improve our knowledge on the hemispheric interrelation of solar magnetic activity and may provide valuable constraints for solar dynamo models.

  13. VizieR Online Data Catalog: Scheiner drawing sunspot areas and tilt angles (Arlt+, 2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arlt, R.; Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Schmiel, C.; Spada, F.

    2016-09-01

    Christoph Scheiner and his collaborators observed the sunspots from 1611-1631 at five different locations of Rome in Italy, Ingolstadt in Germany, Douai (Duacum in Latin) in France, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany and Vienna, Austria. However, most of his published drawings were made in Rome. These sunspot drawings are important because they can tell us how the solar activity declined to a very low-activity phase which lasted for nearly five decades. The three sources used for the sunspot data extraction are Scheiner (1630rour.book.....S, Rosa Ursina sive solis), Scheiner (1651ppsm.book.....S, Prodromus pro sole mobili et terra stabili contra Academicum Florentinum Galilaeum a Galilaeis), and Reeves & Van Helden (2010, On sunspots. Galileo Galilei and Christoph Scheiner (University of Chicago Press)). The suspot drawings show the sunspot groups traversing the solar disk in a single full-disk drawing. The positions and areas of the sunspots were measured using 13 circular cursor shapes with different diameters. Umbral areas for 8167 sunspots and tilt angles for 697 manually selected, supposedly bipolar groups were obtained from Scheiner's sunspot drawings. The database does not contain spotless days. There is, of course, no polarity information in the sunspot drawings, so the tilt angles are actually pseudo-tilt angles. Both an updated sunspot database and a tilt angle database may be available at http://www.aip.de/Members/rarlt/sunspots for further study. (2 data files).

  14. Angular dependence of the facular-sunspot coverage relation as derived by MDI magnetograms

    CERN Document Server

    Criscuoli, Serena

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that the variation over the solar magnetic activity cycle of the area of facular/network features identified on broad band and narrow band imagery is positively correlated with the sunspot area and number, the relation between the area coverages being described as either linear or quadratic. On the other hand, the temporal variation of the spatial distributions of faculae, network and sunspots follows patterns that are less obviously correlated, so that we expect the relation that describes variation of the area coverage of different types of magnetic features to vary with the position over the disk. In this work we employ MDI full-disk magnetograms acquired during Cycle 23 and at the beginning of Cycle 24 to investigate the relation between the coverage of magnetic elements characterized by different amounts of magnetic flux and located at different angular distances from disk center with the sunspot number. In agreement with some previous studies we find that daily data are best ...

  15. Ludendorff Coronal Flattening Index of the Total Solar Eclipse on March 9, 2016

    CERN Document Server

    Dani, Tiar; Rachman, Abdul

    2016-01-01

    Ludendorff coronal flattening index of the Total Solar Eclipse (TSE) on March 9, 2016, was calculated at various distances in solar radius. As a result, we obtained the coronal flattening index $\\left(\\epsilon =a+b\\right)$ at a distance of 2 solar radii is 0.16. The $24^{th}$ solar cycle phase based on the 2016 TSE event obtained -0.64 which showed the corona is pre-minimum type. Resulted coronal flattening index value gives a predicted maximum amplitude of the monthly sunspot number ($W_{max}$) for the $25^{th}$ solar cycle to be $70\\pm65$. Therefore, the solar activity for $25^{th}$ solar cycle predicted to be lower than the current solar cycle, which has a maximum sunspot number value of 146 in February 2014

  16. Properties of a Decaying Sunspot

    CERN Document Server

    Balthasar, H; Gömöry, P; Muglach, K; Puschmann, K G; Shimizu, T; Verma, M

    2013-01-01

    A small decaying sunspot was observed with the Vacuum Tower Telescope (VTT) on Tenerife and the Japanese Hinode satellite. We obtained full Stokes scans in several wavelengths covering different heights in the solar atmosphere. Imaging time series from Hinode and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) complete our data sets. The spot is surrounded by a moat flow, which persists also on that side of the spot where the penumbra already had disappeared. Close to the spot, we find a chromospheric location with downflows of more than 10 km/s without photospheric counterpart. The height dependence of the vertical component of the magnetic field strength is determined in two different ways that yielded different results in previous investigations. Such a difference still exists in our present data, but it is not as pronounced as in the past.

  17. Long-term Modulation of Cosmic Ray Intensity in relation to Sunspot Numbers and Tilt Angle

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Meera Gupta; V. K. Mishra; A. P. Mishra

    2006-12-01

    A detailed correlative analysis between sunspot numbers (SSN) and tilt angle (TA) with cosmic ray intensity (CRI) in the neutron monitor energy range has been performed for the solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. It is found that solar activity parameters (SSN and TA) are highly (positive) correlated with each other and have inverse correlation with cosmic ray intensity (CRI). The ‘running cross correlation coefficient’ between cosmic ray intensity and tilt angle has also been calculated and it is found that the correlation is positive during the maxima of odd cycles 21 and 23. Moreover, the time lag analysis between CRI and SSN, and between CRI and TA has also been performed and is supported by hysteresis curves, which are wide for odd cycles and narrow for even cycles.

  18. Comparative analysis of Debrecen sunspot catalogues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Győri, L.; Ludmány, A.; Baranyi, T.

    2017-02-01

    Sunspot area data are important for studying solar activity and its long-term variations. At the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory, we compiled three sunspot catalogues: the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD), the SDO/HMI Debrecen Data (HMIDD) and the SOHO/MDI Debrecen Data. For comparison, we also compiled an additional sunspot catalogue, the Greenwich Photoheliographic Data, from the digitized Royal Greenwich Observatory images for 1974-76. By comparing these catalogues when they overlap in time, we can investigate how various factors influence the measured area of sunspots, and, in addition, we can derive area cross-calibration factors for these catalogues. The main findings are as follows. Poorer seeing increases the individual corrected spot areas and decreases the number of small spots. Interestingly, the net result of these two effects for the total corrected spot area is zero. DPD daily total corrected sunspot areas are 5 per cent smaller than the HMIDD ones. Revised DPD daily total corrected umbra areas are 9 per cent smaller than those of HMIDD. The Greenwich photoheliographic areas are only a few per cent smaller than DPD areas. A 0.2° difference between the north directions of the DPD and MDI images is found. This value is nearly the same as was found (0.22°) by us in a previous paper comparing HMI and MDI images. The area measurement practice (spots smaller than 10 mh were not directly measured but an area of 2 mh was assigned to each) of the Solar Observing Optical Network cannot explain the large area deficit of the Solar Observing Optical Network.

  19. Hubble Space Telescope solar cell module thermal cycle test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Alexander; Edge, Ted; Willowby, Douglas; Gerlach, Lothar

    1992-01-01

    The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array consists of two identical double roll-out wings designed after the Hughes flexible roll-up solar array (FRUSA) and was developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) to meet specified HST power output requirements at the end of 2 years, with a functional lifetime of 5 years. The requirement that the HST solar array remain functional both mechanically and electrically during its 5-year lifetime meant that the array must withstand 30,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal cycles between approximately +100 and -100 C. In order to evaluate the ability of the array to meet this requirement, an accelerated thermal cycle test in vacuum was conducted at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), using two 128-cell solar array modules which duplicated the flight HST solar array. Several other tests were performed on the modules. The thermal cycle test was interrupted after 2,577 cycles, and a 'cold-roll' test was performed on one of the modules in order to evaluate the ability of the flight array to survive an emergency deployment during the dark (cold) portion of an orbit. A posttest static shadow test was performed on one of the modules in order to analyze temperature gradients across the module. Finally, current in-flight electrical performance data from the actual HST flight solar array will be tested.

  20. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and the solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, R.; Whitesides, B.

    There is a surprisingly large amount of tropospheric climate variability that is linked to the solar cycle. This signal is manifested by annular temperature and wind anomaly structures in both the troposphere and stratosphere. The relatively strong variability in UV radiation observed during the solar cycle has focused attention on the impact of the solar cycle upon the stratosphere. This idea is confirmed in modeling studies which also indicate a climate response extending into the troposphere. Better knowledge of the dynamic linkages between the middle and lower atmosphere is essential in pursuing a mechanistic understanding of solar cycle-climate linkages. An overview is first provided of the key mechanisms that dynamically couple the stratosphere and troposphere. The direct and indirect means by which the stratosphere can influence tropospheric climate are emphasized. Direct downward influences include tropospheric circulation changes induced by latitudinal redistributions of mass and potential vorticity within the stratosphere. Indirect influences involve alterations in the vertical and meridional propagation of tropospheric Rossby waves, which in turn provide local wave forcings to the longitudinally averaged wind field. A statistical and diagnostic framework is then introduced for studying the dynamic coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in association with the solar cycle. We hypothesize that the solar cycle provides dynamical influences to the tropospheric circulation via variations in the strength of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. Synoptic and dynamic atmospheric circulation structures linked to the solar cycle are first isolated using multivariate statistical analyses. Diagnostic analyses are then performed to answer the following questions: What are the relative importance of stratospheric and tropospheric dynamic structures in comprising tropospheric circulation anomalies? How do the propagation characteristics of tropospheric

  1. Velocity fields in and around sunspots at the highest resolution

    CERN Document Server

    Denker, Carsten

    2010-01-01

    The flows in and around sunspots are rich in detail. Starting with the Evershed flow along low-lying flow channels, which are cospatial with the horizontal penumbral magnetic fields, Evershed clouds may continue this motion at the periphery of the sunspot as moving magnetic features in the sunspot moat. Besides these well-ordered flows, peculiar motions are found in complex sunspots, where they contribute to the build-up or relaxation of magnetic shear. In principle, the three-dimensional structure of these velocity fields can be captured. The line-of-sight component of the velocity vector is accessible with spectroscopic measurements, whereas local correlation or feature tracking techniques provide the means to assess horizontal proper motions. The next generation of ground-based solar telescopes will provide spectropolarimetric data resolving solar fine structure with sizes below 50 km. Thus, these new telescopes with advanced post-focus instruments act as a "zoom lens" to study the intricate surface flows ...

  2. How the inclination of Earth's orbit affects incoming solar irradiance

    OpenAIRE

    Vieira, L.E.A.; Norton, A; T. Dudok de Wit; Kretzschmar, M; Schmidt, G. A.; Cheung, M.C.M.

    2012-01-01

    International audience; [1] The variability in solar irradiance, the main external energy source of the Earth's system, must be critically studied in order to place the effects of human-driven climate change into perspective and allow plausible predictions of the evolution of climate. Accurate measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) variability by instruments onboard space platforms during the last three solar cycles indicate changes of approximately 0.1% over the sunspot cycle. Physics-...

  3. A Solar Cycle Dependence of Nonlinearity in Magnetospheric Activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Jay R; Wing, Simon

    2005-03-08

    The nonlinear dependencies inherent to the historical K(sub)p data stream (1932-2003) are examined using mutual information and cumulant based cost as discriminating statistics. The discriminating statistics are compared with surrogate data streams that are constructed using the corrected amplitude adjustment Fourier transform (CAAFT) method and capture the linear properties of the original K(sub)p data. Differences are regularly seen in the discriminating statistics a few years prior to solar minima, while no differences are apparent at the time of solar maximum. These results suggest that the dynamics of the magnetosphere tend to be more linear at solar maximum than at solar minimum. The strong nonlinear dependencies tend to peak on a timescale around 40-50 hours and are statistically significant up to one week. Because the solar wind driver variables, VB(sub)s and dynamical pressure exhibit a much shorter decorrelation time for nonlinearities, the results seem to indicate that the nonlinearity is related to internal magnetospheric dynamics. Moreover, the timescales for the nonlinearity seem to be on the same order as that for storm/ring current relaxation. We suggest that the strong solar wind driving that occurs around solar maximum dominates the magnetospheric dynamics suppressing the internal magnetospheric nonlinearity. On the other hand, in the descending phase of the solar cycle just prior to solar minimum, when magnetospheric activity is weaker, the dynamics exhibit a significant nonlinear internal magnetospheric response that may be related to increased solar wind speed.

  4. Selected solar wind parameters at 1 AU through two solar activity cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Bruno

    Full Text Available In situ measurements of the solar wind largely cover more than two solar magnetic activity cycles, namely 20 and 21. This is a very appealing opportunity to study the influence of the activity cycle on the behaviour of the solar wind parameters. As a matter of fact, many authors so far have studied this topic comparing the long-term magnetic field and plasma averages. However, when the average values are evaluated on a data sample whose duration is comparable with (or even longer than the solar rotation period we lose information about the contribution due to the fast and the slow solar wind components. Thus, discriminating in velocity plays a key role in understanding solar cycle effects on the solar wind. Based on these considerations, we performed a separate analysis for fast and slow wind, respectively. In particular, we found that: (a fast wind carries a slightly larger momentum flux density at 1 AU, probably due to dynamic stream-stream interaction; (b proton number density in slow wind is more cycle dependent than in fast wind and decreases remarkably across solar maximum; (c fast wind generally carries a magnetic field intensity stronger than that carried by the slow wind; (d we found no evidence for a positive correlation between velocity and field intensity as predicted by some theories of solar wind acceleration; (e our results would support an approximately constant divergence of field lines associated with corotating high-velocity streams.

  5. Flaring Rates and the Evolution of Sunspot Group McIntosh Classifications

    CERN Document Server

    McCloskey, Aoife E; Bloomfield, D Shaun

    2016-01-01

    Sunspot groups are the main source of solar flares, with the energy to power them being supplied by magnetic-field evolution (e.g. flux emergence or twisting/shearing). To date, few studies have investigated the statistical relation between sunspot-group evolution and flaring, with none considering evolution in the McIntosh classification scheme. Here we present a statistical analysis of sunspot groups from Solar Cycle 22, focusing on 24-hour changes in the three McIntosh classification components. Evolution-dependent >C1.0, >M1.0, and >X1.0 flaring rates are calculated, leading to the following results: (i) flaring rates become increasingly higher for greater degrees of upward evolution through the McIntosh classes, with the opposite found for downward evolution; (ii) the highest flaring rates are found for upward evolution from larger, more complex, classes (e.g. Zurich D- and E-classes evolving upward to F-class produce >C1.0 rates of 2.66 +/- 0.28 and 2.31 +/- 0.09 flares per 24 hours, respectively); (iii...

  6. Background magnetic fields during last three cycles of solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andryeyeva, O. A.; Stepanian, N. N.

    2008-07-01

    This paper describes our studies of evolution of the solar magnetic field with different sign and field strength in the range from -100 G to 100 G. The structure and evolution of large-scale magnetic fields on the Sun during the last 3 cycles of solar activity is investigated using magnetograph data from the Kitt Peak Solar Observatory. This analysis reveals two groups of the large-scale magnetic fields evolving differently during the cycles. The first group is represented by relatively weak background fields, and is best observed in the range of 3-10 Gauss. The second group is represented by stronger fields of 75-100 Gauss. The spatial and temporal properties of these groups are described and compared with the total magnetic flux. It is shown that the anomalous behaviour of the total flux during the last cycle can be found only in the second group

  7. Performance evaluation of space solar Brayton cycle power systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diao, Zheng-Gang

    1992-06-01

    Unlike gas turbine power systems which consume chemical or nuclear energy, the energy consumption and/or cycle efficiency should not be a suitable criterion for evaluating the performance of space solar Brayton cycle power. A new design goal, life cycle cost, can combine all the power system characteristics, such as mass, area, and station-keeping propellant, into a unified criterion. Effects of pressure ratio, recuperator effectiveness, and compressor inlet temperature on life cycle cost were examined. This method would aid in making design choices for a space power system.

  8. Flare differentially rotates sunspot on Sun's surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang; Xu, Yan; Cao, Wenda; Deng, Na; Lee, Jeongwoo; Hudson, Hugh S.; Gary, Dale E.; Wang, Jiasheng; Jing, Ju; Wang, Haimin

    2016-10-01

    Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic field visible on the solar surface (photosphere). It was considered implausible that solar flares, as resulted from magnetic reconnection in the tenuous corona, would cause a direct perturbation of the dense photosphere involving bulk motion. Here we report the sudden flare-induced rotation of a sunspot using the unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope, supplemented by magnetic data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. It is clearly observed that the rotation is non-uniform over the sunspot: as the flare ribbon sweeps across, its different portions accelerate (up to ~50° h-1) at different times corresponding to peaks of flare hard X-ray emission. The rotation may be driven by the surface Lorentz-force change due to the back reaction of coronal magnetic restructuring and is accompanied by a downward Poynting flux. These results have direct consequences for our understanding of energy and momentum transportation in the flare-related phenomena.

  9. Flare differentially rotates sunspot on Sun's surface

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Chang; Cao, Wenda; Deng, Na; Lee, Jeongwoo; Hudson, Hugh S; Gary, Dale E; Wang, Jiasheng; Jing, Ju; Wang, Haimin

    2016-01-01

    Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic field visible on the solar surface (photosphere). It was considered implausible that solar flares, as resulted from magnetic reconnection in the tenuous corona, would cause a direct perturbation of the dense photosphere involving bulk motion. Here we report the sudden flare-induced rotation of a sunspot using the unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope, supplemented by magnetic data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. It is clearly observed that the rotation is non-uniform over the sunspot: as the flare ribbon sweeps across, its different portions accelerate (up to 50 deg per hr) at different times corresponding to peaks of flare hard X-ray emission. The rotation may be driven by the surface Lorentz-force change due to the back reaction of coronal magnetic restructuring and is accompanied by a downward Poynting flux. These results have direct consequences for our understanding of energy and momentum transportation in the flare-related p...

  10. Flare differentially rotates sunspot on Sun's surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chang; Xu, Yan; Cao, Wenda; Deng, Na; Lee, Jeongwoo; Hudson, Hugh S; Gary, Dale E; Wang, Jiasheng; Jing, Ju; Wang, Haimin

    2016-10-10

    Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic field visible on the solar surface (photosphere). It was considered implausible that solar flares, as resulted from magnetic reconnection in the tenuous corona, would cause a direct perturbation of the dense photosphere involving bulk motion. Here we report the sudden flare-induced rotation of a sunspot using the unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope, supplemented by magnetic data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory. It is clearly observed that the rotation is non-uniform over the sunspot: as the flare ribbon sweeps across, its different portions accelerate (up to ∼50° h(-1)) at different times corresponding to peaks of flare hard X-ray emission. The rotation may be driven by the surface Lorentz-force change due to the back reaction of coronal magnetic restructuring and is accompanied by a downward Poynting flux. These results have direct consequences for our understanding of energy and momentum transportation in the flare-related phenomena.

  11. Solar neutron decay proton observations in cycle 21

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, Paul; Kroeger, Richard; Meyer, Peter; Reames, Donald

    1990-01-01

    Measurement of the flux and energy spectrum of the protons resulting from the decay of solar flare neutrons gives unique information on the spectrum of neutrons from 5 to 200 MeV. Neutrons from three flares have been observed in this manner during solar cycle 21. The use of the decay protons to determine neutron energy spectra is reviewed, and new and definitive energy spectra are presented for the two large flares on June 3, 1982 and April 25, 1984.

  12. The periodicity of Grand Solar Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco Herrera, Victor Manuel

    2016-07-01

    The sunspot number is the most used index to quantify the solar activity. Nevertheless, the sunspot is a syn- thetic index and not a physical index. Therefore, we should be careful to use the sunspot number to quantify the low (high) solar activity. One of the major problems of using sunspot to quantify solar activity is that its minimum value is zero. This zero value hinders the reconstruction of the solar cycle during the Maunder minimum. All solar indexes can be used as analog signals, which can be easily converted into digital signals. In con- trast, the conversion of a digital signal into an analog signal is not in general a simple task. The sunspot number during the Maunder minimum can be studied as a digital signal of the solar activity In 1894, Maunder published a discovery that has maintained the Solar Physics in an impasse. In his fa- mous work on "A Prolonged Sunspot Minimum" Maunder wrote: "The sequence of maximum and minimum has, in fact, been unfailing during the present century [..] and yet there [..], the ordinary solar cycle was once interrupted, and one long period of almost unbroken quiescence prevailed". The search of new historical Grand solar minima has been one of the most important questions in Solar Physics. However, the possibility of estimating a new Grand solar minimum is even more valuable. Since solar activity is the result of electromagnetic processes; we propose to employ the power to quantify solar activity: this is a fundamental physics concept in electrodynamics. Total Solar Irradiance is the primary energy source of the Earth's climate system and therefore its variations can contribute to natural climate change. In this work, we propose to consider the fluctuations in the power of the Total Solar Irradiance as a physical measure of the energy released by the solar dynamo, which contributes to understanding the nature of "profound solar magnetic field in calm". Using a new reconstruction of the Total Solar Irradiance we found the

  13. Second law analysis of a solar powered Rankine cycle/vapor compression cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Egrican, A.N.; Karakas, A.

    1986-01-01

    Conversion of solar heat energy to power or air conditioning is a difficult and costly process. Only two practical means of solar cooling are presently state-of-the-art. These are by use of the Rankine cycle/vapor compression cycle (RC/VCC) and the absorption refrigeration cycle. RC/VCC solar cooling systems convert collected solar heat into a cooling effect. In the present study, the second law analysis is given, the maximum reversible work, lost work and availability for each component are calculated. The use of lost work or irreversibility and availability analysis in a real thermodynamic and heat transfer problem is very important in at least two regards. The first one is that in most cases accomplishing a real problem with the less irreversibility is directly proportional to the less cost. The second one is that availability is one of our natural resources. The conservation and effective use of availability reserves result in the decrease irreversibilities.

  14. Investigating the Causes of Solar-Cycle Variations in Solar Energetic Particle Fluences and Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mewaldt, Richard; Cohen, Christina; Mason, Glenn M.; von Rosenvinge, Tycho; Li, Gang; Smith, Charles; Vourlidas, Angelos

    2015-04-01

    Measurements with ACE, STEREO, and GOES show that the number of large Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in solar cycle 24 is reduced by a factor of ~2 compared to this point of cycle 23, while the fluences of >10 MeV/nuc ions from H to Fe are reduced by factors ranging from ~4 to ~10. We investigate the origin of these cycle-to-cycle differences by evaluating possible factors that include properties of the associated CMEs, seed particle densities, and the interplanetary magnetic field strength and turbulence levels. These properties will be evaluated in the context of existing SEP acceleration models.

  15. Relationship between phases of quasi-decadal oscillations of total ozone and the 11-year solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visheratin, K. N.

    2012-02-01

    Temporal variability of the relationship between the phases of quasi-decadal oscillations (QDOs) of total ozone (TO), measured at the Arosa station, and the Ri international sunspot number have been analyzed for the period of 1932-2009. Before the 1970s, the maximum phase of ozone QDOs lagged behind solar activity variations by about 2.5-2.8 years and later outstripped by about 1.5 years. We assumed that the TO QDOs in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were close to being in resonance with solar activity oscillations in the period from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s and assessed the characteristic delay period of TO QDOs. The global distribution of phases and amplitudes of TO QDOs have been studied for the period from 1979 to 2008 based on satellite data. The maximum phase of TO QDOs first onsets in northern middle and high latitudes and coincides with the end of the growth phase of the 11-year solar cycle. In the tropics, the maximum oscillation phase lags behind by 0.5-1 year. The maximum phase lag near 40-50° S is about two years. The latitudinal variations of the phase of TO QDOs have been approximated.

  16. High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations

    CERN Document Server

    Ball, W T; Rozanov, E V; Kuchar, A; Sukhodolov, T; Tummon, F; Shapiro, A V; Schmutz, W

    2016-01-01

    Some of the natural variability in climate is understood to come from changes in the Sun. A key route whereby the Sun may influence surface climate is initiated in the tropical stratosphere by the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation by ozone, leading to a modification of the temperature and wind structures and consequently to the surface through changes in wave propagation and circulation. While changes in total, spectrally-integrated, solar irradiance lead to small variations in global mean surface temperature, the `top-down' UV effect preferentially influences on regional scales at mid-to-high latitudes with, in particular, a solar signal noted in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The amplitude of the UV variability is fundamental in determining the magnitude of the climate response but understanding of the UV variations has been challenged recently by measurements from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite, which show UV solar cycle changes up to 10 times larger than p...

  17. New information on solar activity, 1779-1818, from Sir William Herschel's unpublished notebooks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H.

    1992-01-01

    Herschel's observations are analyzed in order to determine the level of solar activity for solar cycle 5. It is concluded that solar cycle 5 may have peaked as early as 1801 based upon the average number of groups with a probable secondary maximum in 1804. Depending on the technique adopted, the peak for solar cycle 5 occurred sometime between 1801 and 1804, rather than 1805.2, as commonly assumed. Instead of a solar cycle of 17 yrs, a cycle length of 14 yrs is found. It is also found that the peak yearly mean sunspot number is only about 38 rather than 45, as deduced by Wolf (1855). A technique for making early solar observations homogeneous with modern sunspot observations is proposed.

  18. Identification of possible intense historical geomagnetic storms using combined sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Willis

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma

  19. VizieR Online Data Catalog: Sunspot areas and tilt angles (Senthamizh Pavai+, 2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Arlt, R.; Dasi-Espuig, M.; Krivova, N.; Solanki, S.

    2015-11-01

    We present sunspot positions and areas from historical observations of sunspots by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe from Dessau, Germany. He has recorded his observations of sunspots from 1825-1867 as drawings in small circles of about 5cm diameter (representing the solar disk). Even though he has used quite a number of telescopes for his observations, the majority of the full-disk drawings were made with a 3-1/2-foot telescope from Fraunhofer. His observing log books are stored in the library of the Royal Astronomical Society in London. Those drawings were digitized photographically with a resolution of 2912x4378 pixels per page. The sizes and positions of the sunspots were measured using a dozen of circular mouse cursor shapes with different diameters. The sunspot sizes in Schwabe's drawings are not to scale and need to be converted into physical sunspot areas. We employed a statistical approach assuming that the area distribution of sunspots was the same in the 19th century as it was in the 20th century. Umbral areas for about 130,000 sunspots observed by Schwabe were obtained, as well as the tilt angles of sunspot groups assuming them to be bipolar (two or more spots). There is, of course, no polarity information in the observations. Both an updated sunspot database and a tilt angle database are available at http://www.aip.de/Members/rarlt/ sunspots for further study. (2 data files).

  20. Helioseismology and the Solar Cycle: Past, Present and Future

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Frank Hill

    2008-03-01

    A major goal of helioseismology is to understand the mechanism of the solar cycle. In this paper, some results of helioseismic observations relevant to the cycle are briefly reviewed, the current state-of-the-art is discussed, and near-term future directions are sketched out. Topics covered include the internal rotation rate; activity-related parameter variations; the tachocline; far-side imaging; the torsional oscillation; and meridional flows.

  1. Sunspot Group Development in High Resolution

    CERN Document Server

    Muraközy, J; Ludmány, A

    2014-01-01

    The Solar and Heliospheric Obseratory/Michelson Doppler Imager--Debrecen Data (SDD) sunspot catalogue provides an opportunity to study the details and development of sunspot groups on a large statistical sample. The SDD data allow, in particular, the differential study of the leading and following parts with a temporal resolution of 1.5 hours. In this study, we analyse the equilibrium distance of sunspot groups as well as the evolution of this distance over the lifetime of the groups and the shifts in longitude associated with these groups. We also study the asymmetry between the compactness of the leading and following parts, as well as the time-profiles for the development of the area of sunspot groups. A logarithmic relationship has been found between the total area and the distance of leading-following parts of active regions (ARs) at the time of their maximum area. In the developing phase the leading part moves forward; this is more noticeable in larger ARs. The leading part has a higher growth rate than...

  2. Advanced power cycles and configurations for solar towers: Modeling and optimization of the decoupled solar combined cycle concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Barberena, Javier; Olcoz, Asier; Sorbet, Fco. Javier

    2017-06-01

    CSP technologies are essential to allow large shares of renewables into the grid due to their unique ability to cope with the large variability of the energy resource by means of technically and economically feasible thermal energy storage (TES) systems. However, there is still the need and sought to achieve technological breakthroughs towards cost reductions and increased efficiencies. For this, research on advanced power cycles, like the Decoupled Solar Combined Cycle (DSCC) is, are regarded as a key objective. The DSCC concept is, basically, a Combined Brayton-Rankine cycle in which the bottoming cycle is decoupled from the operation of the topping cycle by means of an intermediate storage system. According to this concept, one or several solar towers driving a solar air receiver and a Gas Turbine (Brayton cycle) feed through their exhaust gasses a single storage system and bottoming cycle. This general concept benefits from a large flexibility in its design. On the one hand, different possible schemes related to number and configuration of solar towers, storage systems media and configuration, bottoming cycles, etc. are possible. On the other, within a specific scheme a large number of design parameters can be optimized, including the solar field size, the operating temperatures and pressures of the receiver, the power of the Brayton and Rankine cycles, the storage capacity and others. Heretofore, DSCC plants have been analyzed by means of simple steady-state models with pre-stablished operating parameters in the power cycles. In this work, a detailed transient simulation model for DSCC plants has been developed and is used to analyze different DSCC plant schemes. For each of the analyzed plant schemes, a sensitivity analysis and selection of the main design parameters is carried out. Results show that an increase in annual solar to electric efficiency of 30% (from 12.91 to 16.78) can be achieved by using two bottoming Rankine cycles at two different

  3. Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, Robin [SAIC; Davenport, Roger [SAIC; Talbot, Jan [UCSD; Herz, Richard [UCSD; Genders, David [Electrosynthesis Co.; Symons, Peter [Electrosynthesis Co.; Brown, Lloyd [TChemE

    2014-04-25

    A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle for reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are

  4. Mir Cooperative Solar Array Project Accelerated Life Thermal Cycling Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, David J.; Scheiman, David A.

    1996-01-01

    The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) project was a joint U.S./Russian effort to build a photovoltaic (PV) solar array and deliver it to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA will be used to increase the electrical power on Mir and provide PV array performance data in support of Phase 1 of the International Space Station. The MCSA was brought to Mir by space shuttle Atlantis in November 1995. This report describes an accelerated thermal life cycle test which was performed on two samples of the MCSA. In eight months time, two MCSA solar array 'mini' panel test articles were simultaneously put through 24,000 thermal cycles. There was no significant degradation in the structural integrity of the test articles and no electrical degradation, not including one cell damaged early and removed from consideration. The nature of the performance degradation caused by this one cell is briefly discussed. As a result of this test, changes were made to improve some aspects of the solar cell coupon-to-support frame interface on the flight unit. It was concluded from the results that the integration of the U.S. solar cell modules with the Russian support structure would be able to withstand at least 24,000 thermal cycles (4 years on-orbit). This was considered a successful development test.

  5. Characteristics of Solar Wind Density Depletions During Solar Cycles 23 and 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Keunchan; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yi, Yu; Lee, Jaejin; Sohn, Jongdae

    2017-06-01

    Solar wind density depletions are phenomena that solar wind density is rapidly decreased and keep the state. They are generally believed to be caused by the interplanetary (IP) shocks. However, there are other cases that are hardly associated with IP shocks. We set up a hypothesis for this phenomenon and analyze this study. We have collected the solar wind parameters such as density, speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data related to the solar wind density depletion events during the period from 1996 to 2013 that are obtained with the advanced composition explorer (ACE) and the Wind satellite. We also calculate two pressures (magnetic, dynamic) and analyze the relation with density depletion. As a result, we found total 53 events and the most these phenomena’s sources caused by IP shock are interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). We also found that solar wind density depletions are scarcely related with IP shock’s parameters. The solar wind density is correlated with solar wind dynamic pressure within density depletion. However, the solar wind density has an little anti-correlation with IMF strength during all events of solar wind density depletion, regardless of the presence of IP shocks. Additionally, In 47 events of IP shocks, we find 6 events that show a feature of blast wave. The quantities of IP shocks are weaker than blast wave from the Sun, they are declined in a short time after increasing rapidly. We thus argue that IMF strength or dynamic pressure are an important factor in understanding the nature of solar wind density depletion. Since IMF strength and solar wind speed varies with solar cycle, we will also investigate the characteristics of solar wind density depletion events in different phases of solar cycle as an additional clue to their physical nature.

  6. The new Sunspot Number: assembling all corrections

    CERN Document Server

    Frédéric,; Lefèvre, Laure

    2015-01-01

    The Sunspot Number, created by R.Wolf in 1849, provides a direct long-term record of solar activity from 1700 to the present. In spite of its central role in multiple studies of the solar dynamo and of the past Sun-Earth relations, it was never submitted to a global critical revision. However, various discrepancies with other solar indices recently motivated a full re-calibration of this series. Based on various diagnostics and corrections established in the framework of several Sunspot Number Workshops and described in Clette et al. 2014, we assembled all corrections in order to produce a new standard version of this reference time series. In this paper, we explain the three main corrections and the criteria used to choose a final optimal version of each correction factor or function, given the available information and published analyses. We then discuss the good agreement obtained with the Group sunspot Number derived from a recent reconstruction. Among the implications emerging from this re-calibrated ser...

  7. Exergy analysis of an integrated solar combined cycle system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baghernejad, A.; Yaghoubi, M. [Engineering School, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran)

    2010-10-15

    Exergetic analysis has become an integral part of thermodynamic assessment of any power generation system. Energy and exergy studies for power plants optimum design and for combined chemical industries received much attention recently. An Integrated Solar Combined Cycle System (ISCCS) is proposed as a means of integrating a parabolic trough solar thermal plant with modern combined cycle power plants. In this study attempt will be made to analyze the Integrated Solar Combined Cycle in Yazd, Iran using design plant data. Energy and exergy analysis for the solar field and combined cycle is carried out to assess the plant performance and pinpoint sites of primary exergy destruction. Exergy destruction throughout the plant is quantified and illustrated using an exergy flow diagram, and compared to the energy flow diagram. The causes of exergy destruction in the plant include: losses in combustor, collector, heat exchangers, and pump and turbines which accounts for 29.62, 8.69, 9.11 and 8% of the total exergy input to the plant, respectively. Exergetic efficiencies of the major plant components are determined in an attempt to assess their individual performances. (author)

  8. Refined life-cycle assessment of polymer solar cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzmann, F.; Kroon, J.; Andriessen, R.

    2011-01-01

    A refined life-cycle assessment of polymer solar cells is presented with a focus on critical components, i.e. the transparent conductive ITO layer and the encapsulation components. This present analysis gives a comprehensive sketch of the full environmental potential of polymer-OPV in comparison...

  9. Changed Relation between Solar 10.7-cm Radio Flux and some Activity Indices which describe the Radiation at Different Altitudes of Atmosphere during Cycles 21–23

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    E. A. Bruevich; V. V. Bruevich; G. V. Yakunina

    2014-03-01

    The correlation coefficients of the linear regression of six solar indices versus 10.7 cm radio flux 10.7 were analysed in solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. We also analysed the interconnection between these indices and 10.7 with help of approximation by polynomials of second order. The indices we have studied in this paper are: the relative sunspot numbers – SSN, 530.3 nm coronal line flux – 530 , the total solar irradiance – TSI, Mg II 280 nm core-to-wing ratio UV-index, the Flare Index – FI and the counts of flares. In most cases the regressions of these solar indices vs. 10.7 are close to the linear regression except the moments of time near the minimums and maximums of the 11-year activity. For the linear regressions, we found that correlation coefficients corr() for the solar indices vs. 10.7 and SSN dropped to their minimum values twice during each 11-year cycle.

  10. Maximum Coronal Mass Ejection Speed as an Indicator of Solar and Geomagnetic Activities

    CERN Document Server

    Kilcik, A; Abramenko, V; Goode, P R; Gopalswamy, N; Ozguc, A; Rozelot, J P; 10.1088/0004-637X/727/1/44

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index does not exhibit a double peak maximum. Instead, the CME speed profile peaks during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Similar to the Ap index, both CME speed and the Dst indices lag behind the sunspot numbers by several months. (3) The CME number shows a double peak similar to that seen in the sunspot numbers. The CME occurrence rate remained very high even near the minimum of the solar cycle 23, when both the sunspot ...

  11. Oscillator models of the solar cycle: Towards the development of inversion methods

    CERN Document Server

    Lopes, Ilídio; Nagy, Melinda; Petrovay, Kristof

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews some of the leading results obtained in solar dynamo physics by using temporal oscillator models as a tool to interpret observational data and dynamo model predictions. We discuss how solar observational data such as the sunspot number is used to infer the leading quantities responsible for the solar variability during the last few centuries. Moreover, we discuss the advantages and difficulties of using inversion methods (or backward methods) over forward methods to interpret the solar dynamo data. We argue that this approach could help us to have a better insight about the leading physical processes responsible for solar dynamo, in a similar manner as helioseismology has helped to achieve a better insight on the thermodynamic structure and flow dynamics in the Sun's interior.

  12. The histeresis of the indices of solar activity and of the ionospheric indices in 11-yr cycles. The histeresis of the stellar activity indices in the cyclic activity similar to the Sun

    CERN Document Server

    Bruevich, E A; Kazachevskaya, T V; Katyushina, V V; Nusinov, A A

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of the effect of the hysteresis, which manifests itself in an ambiguous relationship of radiation from the photosphere, chromosphere and corona on the rise and decline phases of the solar and stellar activity cycles have done. Some indices of solar activity: the flux of the hydrogen Lyman-alpha emission, the 10.7 cm flux, the sunspot number SSN, the flux in the coronal green line 530.3 nm, the solar constant TSI and the 280 nm Mg II flux were studied. The stars with the well-determined cycles were examined to detect the effect of hysteresis between the chromosphere's S-index CaII fluxes versus the photosphere's fluxes Fphotosphere.

  13. Space weather Preparing for the Maximum of the Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaltout, Mosalam

    : Space Environments Group preparing for the maximum of the solar cycle 24 where the current plan envisage that the National second Earth Research satellite EgyptSat2 will be launched in 2012. For that, forecasting the solar activity at 2012 is very important. The plan depend on the long-term prediction by using 10.7cm of Ottawa data (1947-2008) and applying fast Fourier transform FFT on this time series. Also, Using the Artificial Intelligence to predict the maximum activity by Fuzzy modeling. Also, Short-term prediction for Coronal mass ejection CMEs by the artificial satellite STEREO observations, beside other satellites as SOHO, Hinde, SDO, Solar orbiter sentinels, Solar Probe in collaboration with Paris Observatory in Meudon, France.

  14. Paleoclimate forcing by the solar De Vries/Suess cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.-J. Lüdecke

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A large number of investigations of paleoclimate have noted the influence of a ~ 200 year oscillation which has been related to the De Vries/Suess cycle of solar activity. As such studies were concerned mostly with local climate, we have used extensive northern hemispheric proxy data sets of Büntgen and of Christiansen/Ljungqvist together with a southern hemispheric tree-ring set, all with 1 year time resolution, to analyze the climate influence of the solar cycle. As there is increasing interest in temperature rise rates, as opposed to present absolute temperatures, we have analyzed temperature differences over 100 years to shed light on climate dynamics of at least the last 2500 years. Fourier- and Wavelet transforms as well as nonlinear optimization to sine functions show the dominance of the ∼ 200 year cycle. The sine wave character of the climate oscillations permits an approximate prediction of the near future climate.

  15. Solar powered Stirling cycle electrical generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaltens, Richard K.

    1991-01-01

    Under NASA's Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI), the NASA Lewis Research Center is developing the technology needed for free-piston Stirling engines as a candidate power source for space systems in the late 1990's and into the next century. Space power requirements include high efficiency, very long life, high reliability, and low vibration. Furthermore, system weight and operating temperature are important. The free-piston Stirling engine has the potential for a highly reliable engine with long life because it has only a few moving parts, non-contacting gas bearings, and can be hermetically sealed. These attributes of the free-piston Stirling engine also make it a viable candidate for terrestrial applications. In cooperation with the Department of Energy, system designs are currently being completed that feature the free-piston Stirling engine for terrestrial applications. Industry teams were assembled and are currently completing designs for two Advanced Stirling Conversion Systems utilizing technology being developed under the NASA CSTI Program. These systems, when coupled with a parabolic mirror to collect the solar energy, are capable of producing about 25 kW of electricity to a utility grid. Industry has identified a niche market for dish Stirling systems for worldwide remote power application. They believe that these niche markets may play a major role in the introduction of Stirling products into the commercial market.

  16. Solar Magnetic Field and the Mass Egections during CYCLE23

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdhady, Ahmed; Shaltout, Mosalam

    The solar cycle 23 started in 1996 and its maximum was in May 2001. More than ten high energic flares (Proton flares) occurred from solar active region’s of large and complex magnetic fields of strength 2500 to 3000 gauss. The mass ejection measured by artificial satellites for proton of energies more than 10 Mev. The increased of the solar wind in velocity and density which occurred after the releasing of the solar eruptive flares was measured by artificial satellites. The geomagnetic storms and the sudden ionospheric disturbance measured by ground stations. The used data will be world-wide solar-geophysical data as that of NOAA USA and Bejin observatory China. The results lead to important role of the local magnetic field of the solar active region in production of high-energetic solar flares and its effect on the electromagnetic component and dynamic component of the flare. The effect of the magnetic field on the three different phase of the eruptive flare were given (thermal phase impulsive phase and recovery phase). Our results in this study may be help in flare prediction and mass ejection estimation before its reach to the earth and produce geomagnetic storms.

  17. Power spectra analysis for world-wide and North Africa historical earthquakes data in relation to sunspots periodicities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaltout, M.A.M.; Mesiha, S.L. [National Research Inst. of Astronomy and Geophysics, Helwan (Egypt); Tadros, M.T.Y. [Mansoura Univ., Physics Dept., Mansoura (Egypt)

    1999-07-01

    In the last three decades, the influence of solar activity on earth seismicity is one of the most important subjects in the field of long-term prediction of earthquakes. In the present work, the autocorrelation and power spectra analysis were applied for the sequences of sunspots and earthquakes activity. The used data are the worldwide earthquakes of M {>=} 5, and the sunspots number R{sub 2}, for the period 1903-1985. Both are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. Also, we restrict our attention to earthquakes in North Africa with two stations, one at Cairo (Egypt), and the other at Alger (Algeria) of M {>=} 4 for the period (1900-1986). The results indicated the presence of the eleven year cycles of the sunspots into the time of the earthquakes of the North Africa. Also, for the worldwide and North Africa earthquakes data a periodicities ranged between 1.01 and 5.5 years are revealed, which may be linked to a solar activity cycle. (Author)

  18. Three-dimensional structure of a sunspot light bridge

    CERN Document Server

    Felipe, T; Khomenko, E; Kuckein, C; Ramos, A Asensio; Balthasar, H; Berkefeld, T; Denker, C; Feller, A; Franz, M; Hofmann, A; Kiess, C; Lagg, A; Nicklas, H; Suárez, D Orozco; Yabar, A Pastor; Rezaei, R; Schlichenmaier, R; Schmidt, D; Schmidt, W; Sigwarth, M; Sobotka, M; Solanki, S K; Soltau, D; Staude, J; Strassmeier, K G; Volkmer, R; von der Lühe, O; Waldmann, T

    2016-01-01

    Active regions are the most prominent manifestations of solar magnetic fields; their generation and dissipation are fundamental problems in solar physics. Light bridges are commonly present during sunspot decay, but a comprehensive picture of their role in the removal of photospheric magnetic field is still missing. We study the three dimensional configuration of a sunspot and in particular its light bridge during one of the last stages of its decay. We present the magnetic and thermodynamical stratification inferred from full Stokes inversions of the photospheric Si I 10827 \\AA\\ and Ca I 10839 \\AA\\ lines obtained with the GREGOR Infrared Spectrograph of the GREGOR telescope at Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, Spain. The analysis is complemented by a study of continuum images covering the disk passage of the active region, which are provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The sunspot shows a light bridge with penumbral continuum intensity that separates the c...

  19. The Global Solar Dynamo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, R. H.; Dikpati, M.; Brandenburg, A.

    2017-09-01

    A brief summary of the various observations and constraints that underlie solar dynamo research are presented. The arguments that indicate that the solar dynamo is an alpha-omega dynamo of the Babcock-Leighton type are then shortly reviewed. The main open questions that remain are concerned with the subsurface dynamics, including why sunspots emerge at preferred latitudes as seen in the familiar butterfly wings, why the cycle is about 11 years long, and why the sunspot groups emerge tilted with respect to the equator (Joy's law). Next, we turn to magnetic helicity, whose conservation property has been identified with the decline of large-scale magnetic fields found in direct numerical simulations at large magnetic Reynolds numbers. However, magnetic helicity fluxes through the solar surface can alleviate this problem and connect theory with observations, as will be discussed.

  20. The Global Solar Dynamo

    CERN Document Server

    Cameron, R H; Brandenburg, A

    2016-01-01

    A brief summary of the various observations and constraints that underlie solar dynamo research are presented. The arguments that indicate that the solar dynamo is an alpha-omega dynamo of the Babcock-Leighton type are then shortly reviewed. The main open questions that remain are concerned with the subsurface dynamics, including why sunspots emerge at preferred latitudes as seen in the familiar butterfly wings, why the cycle is about 11 years long, and why the sunspot groups emerge tilted with respect to the equator (Joy's law). Next, we turn to magnetic helicity, whose conservation property has been identified with the decline of large-scale magnetic fields found in direct numerical simulations at large magnetic Reynolds numbers. However, magnetic helicity fluxes through the solar surface can alleviate this problem and connect theory with observations, as will be discussed.

  1. A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 - 24 Minimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Kan; Wu, Chin-Chun

    2016-12-01

    Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23 - 24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth's orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6 - 1995.8) and third (2006.9 - 2008.2) Ulysses' perihelion ({˜} 1.4 AU) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense ({˜} 34 %) and cooler ({˜} 20 %), and the total magnetic field was {˜} 30 % weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was {˜} 50 % wider in the third ({˜} 68.5^deg; in heliographic latitude) than in the first ({˜} 44.8°) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses' perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.

  2. Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Telloni, Daniele; Antonucci, Ester [INAF-Astrophysical Observatory of Torino, Via Osservatorio 20, 10025 Pino Torinese (Italy); Carbone, Vincenzo [University of Calabria, Department of Physics, Ponte P. Bucci Cubo 31C, 87036 Rende (Italy); CNR-Institute for Chemical-Physical Processes, Ponte P. Bucci Cubo 33B, 87036 Rende (Italy); Lepreti, Fabio [University of Calabria, Department of Physics, Ponte P. Bucci Cubo 31C, 87036 Rende (Italy)

    2016-03-25

    Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are

  3. Thermal Cycling of Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) Test Panels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, David J.; Scheiman, David A.

    1997-01-01

    The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) project was a joint US/Russian effort to build a photovoltaic (PV) solar array and deliver it to the Russian space station Mir. The MCSA is currently being used to increase the electrical power on Mir and provide PV array performance data in support of Phase 1 of the International Space Station (ISS), which will use arrays based on the same solar cells used in the MCSA. The US supplied the photovoltaic power modules (PPMs) and provided technical and programmatic oversight while Russia provided the array support structures and deployment mechanism and built and tested the array. In order to ensure that there would be no problems with the interface between US and Russian hardware, an accelerated thermal life cycle test was performed at NASA Lewis Research Center on two representative samples of the MCSA. Over an eight-month period (August 1994 - March 1995), two 15-cell MCSA solar array 'mini' panel test articles were simultaneously put through 24,000 thermal cycles (+80 C to -100 C), equivalent to four years on-orbit. The test objectives, facility, procedure and results are described in this paper. Post-test inspection and evaluation revealed no significant degradation in the structural integrity of the test articles and no electrical degradation, not including one cell damaged early as an artifact of the test and removed from consideration. The interesting nature of the performance degradation caused by this one cell, which only occurred at elevated temperatures, is discussed. As a result of this test, changes were made to improve some aspects of the solar cell coupon-to-support frame interface on the flight unit. It was concluded from the results that the integration of the US solar cell modules with the Russian support structure would be able to withstand at least 24,000 thermal cycles (4 years on-orbit).

  4. Pluto's Haze from 2002 - 2015: Correlation with the Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Eliot; Klein, Viliam; Hartig, Kara; Resnick, Aaron; Mackie, Jason; Carriazo, Carolina; Watson, Charles; Skrutskie, Michael; Verbiscer, Anne; Nelson, Matthew; Howell, Robert; Wasserman, Lawrence; Hudson, Gordon; Gault, David; Barry, Tony; Sicardy, Bruno; Cole, Andrew; Giles, Barry; Hill, Kym

    2017-04-01

    Occultations by Pluto were observed 2002, 2007, 2011 and 2015, with each event observed simultaneously in two or more wavelengths. Separate wavelengths allow us to discriminate between haze opacity and refractive effects due to an atmosphere's thermal profile - these two effects are notoriously hard to separate if only single-wavelength lightcurves are available. Of those four occultations, the amount of haze in Pluto's atmosphere was highest in 2002 (Elliot et al. 2003 report an optical depth of 0.11 at 0.73 µm in the zenith direction), but undetectable in the 2007 and 2011 events (we find optical depth upper limits of 0.012 and 0.010 at 0.6 µm). Cheng et al. (2016) report a zenith optical depth of 0.018 at 0.6 µm from the haze profiles seen in New Horizons images. These four data points are correlated with the solar cycle. The 2002 haze detection occurred just after the peak of solar cycle 23, the 2007 and 2011 non-detections occurred during the solar minimum between peaks 23 and 24, and the New Horizons flyby took place just after the peak of solar cycle 24. This suggests that haze production on Pluto (a) is driven by solar UV photons or charged particles, (b) that sources and sinks on Pluto have timescales shorter than a few Earth years, and (c) the haze precursors on Pluto are not produced by Lyman-alpha radiation, because Lyman-alpha output only decreased by about one third in between the cycle 23 and 24 peaks, much less than the observed change in Pluto's haze abundances. References: Elliot, J.L. et al. (2003) Nature, Volume 424, Issue 6945, pp. 165-168.

  5. Thermoeconomic Evaluation of Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Systems (ISCCS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Rodríguez Martín

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Three alternatives for integrating a solar field with the bottoming cycle of a combined cycle plant are modeled: parabolic troughs with oil at intermediate and low cycle pressures and Fresnel linear collectors at low cycle pressure. It is assumed that the plant will always operate at nominal conditions, using post-combustion during the hours of no solar resource. A thermoeconomic study of the operation of the plant throughout a year has been carried out. The energy and exergy efficiencies of the plant working in fuel only and hybrid modes are compared. The energy efficiencies obtained are very similar; slightly better for the fuel only mode. The exergy efficiencies are slightly better for hybrid operation than for fuel-only mode, due to the high exergy destruction associated with post-combustion. The values for solar electric efficiency are in line with those of similar studies. The economic study shows that the Fresnel hybridization alternative offers similar performance to the others at a significantly lower cost.

  6. Solar Cycle Phase Dependence of Supergranular Fractal Dimension

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    U. Paniveni; V. Krishan; J. Singh; R. Srikanth

    2011-03-01

    We study the complexity of supergranular cells using the intensity patterns obtained from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during the 23rd solar cycle. Our data consists of visually identified supergranular cells, from which a fractal dimension for supergranulation is obtained according to the relation ∝ /2, where is the area and is the perimeter of the supergranular cells. We find a difference in the fractal dimension between active and quiet region cells in the ascending phase, during the peak and in the descending phase which is conjectured to be due to the magnetic activity level.

  7. Solar Cycle Variation and Multipoint Studies of ICME Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, C. T.

    2005-01-01

    The goal of the Living With a Star program is to understand the Sun-Earth connection sufficiently well that we can solve problems critical to life and society. This can most effectively be done in the short term using observations from our past and on-going programs. Not only can this approach solve some of the pressing issues but also it can provide ideas for the deployment of future spacecraft in the LWS program. The proposed effort uses data from NEAR, SOHO, Wind, ACE and Pioneer Venus in quadrature, multipoint, and solar cycle studies to study the interplanetary coronal mass ejection and its role in the magnetic flux cycle of the Sun. ICMEs are most important to the LWS objectives because the solar wind conditions associated with these structures are the most geoeffective of any solar wind phenomena. Their ability to produce strong geomagnetic disturbances arises first because of their high speed. This high speed overtakes the ambient solar wind producing a bow shock wave similar to the terrestrial bow shock. In the new techniques we develop as part of this effort we exploit this feature of ICMEs. This shocked plasma has a greater velocity, higher density and stronger magnetic field than the ambient solar wind, conditions that can enhance geomagnetic activity. The driving ICME is a large magnetic structure expanding outward in the solar wind [Gosling, 19961. The ICMEs magnetic field is generally much higher than that in the ambient solar wind and the velocity is high. The twisted nature of the magnetic field in an ICME almost ensures that sometime during the ICME conditions favorable for geomagnetic storm initiation will occur.

  8. Analytical Model of an Asymmetric Sunspot with a Steady Plasma Flow in its Penumbra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solov'ev, A. A.; Kirichek, E. A.

    2016-08-01

    A new exact analytical solution to the stationary problem of ideal magnetohydrodynamics is derived for an unipolar asymmetric sunspot immersed in a realistic solar atmosphere. The radial and vertical profiles of pressure, plasma density, and temperature in the visible layers of the sunspot are calculated. The reduction in plasma density in the magnetic funnel of the sunspot, corresponding to the Wilson depression, is also obtained. The magnetic structure of the sunspot is given analytically in a realistic way: a part of the magnetic flux of the sunspot approaches the surrounding photosphere at the outer edge of the penumbra. The magnetic field of the sunspot is not assumed to be axially symmetric. For the first time, the angular dependence of the physical variables in this model allows us to simulate not only a deviation from the circular shape of the sunspot, but also a fine filamentary structure of the sunspot penumbra. The Alfvén Mach number (the ratio of the plasma speed to the Alfvén speed) is zero at the center of the sunspot and rises slowly toward the periphery of the sunspot; this corresponds to the structure of the Evershed flow in the penumbra. The Evershed flow in our model is mainly concentrated in dark penumbral filaments, as is observed.

  9. Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Ching-Cheh

    2007-01-01

    A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

  10. Impact of variations in solar activity on hydrological decadal patterns in northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, D.; Rubino, A.; Traverso, P.; Tomasino, M.

    2008-06-01

    Using spectral and statistical analyses of discharges and basin average precipitation rates acquired over the Po River since the early 1800s, we investigate the impact of variations in solar activity on hydrological decadal patterns over northern Italy. Wet and dry periods appear to alternate in accordance with polarized sunspot cycles. Intriguingly, a solar signature on Po River discharges is detected to be highly significant since the late 1800s, before the onset of sunspots hyperactivity established by the middle 1900s. In particular, observed hydrological patterns over northern Italy are significantly correlated, under periods of quiet sunspot activity, with parameters characterizing the Sun's orbital motion, specifically with the time derivative of the solar angular momentum (τ) which is thought to modulate the strength of the solar wind and sunspot dynamics under weak sunspot activity. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is detected as potential link between the Sun and Po River discharges, since it is significantly correlated with both solar activity and the decadal variability in the north Italian climate. In particular, positive (negative) NAO anomalies, which are associated with comparatively lower (higher) Po River discharges, are assessed to alternatively correlate at decadal timescales either with τ or with the Earth's geomagnetic activity (GA), which closely follows sunspot activity. This changing correlation seems to be regulated by the strength of sunspot activity: under periods of quiet sunspot activity, a weakening of the GA-NAO connection and a reinforcement of the τ-NAO connection is observed. In this sense, the strength of solar activity apparently modulates the connection between the NAO and Po River discharges.

  11. The Venus Atmospheric Response to Solar Cycle Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Gerald M.; Hsu, N. Christina

    1993-01-01

    Atmospheric drag measurements from the orbital decay of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Magellan spacecraft have recently been obtained of the Venus dayside and nightside atmosphere between 130 and 210 km during a period of low solar activity. These new measurements, combined with the earlier Pioneer Venus drag measurements (1978-80) obtained near the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle, have allowed the detection of the detailed response of temperature, atomic oxygen and carbon dioxide to solar variations. We have found a weak but detectable temperature response on the dayside which is in accord with the response predicted by Keating and Bougher when they assumed very strong CO2 radiative cooling resulting from atomic oxygen exciting CO2 into 15 micron emission. This same radiative process may cause strong cooling in the Earth's upper atmosphere with the doubling of CO2 in the future. With decreasing solar activity, the O/CO2 ratio in the lower thermosphere is found to decrease, apparently due to decreased photodissociation of CO2 and lower temperatures. The percent decrease in atomic oxygen with decreasing solar activity on the dayside is found to be approximately the same as the percent decreases of atomic oxygen transported to the nightside. A very weak response of nightside temperatures to solar activity variations has also been detected.

  12. Proton activity of the Sun in current solar cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Chuan; Fang, Cheng

    2014-01-01

    We present a study of 7 large solar proton events (SPEs) of current solar cycle 24 (from 2009 January up to date). They were recorded by GOES spacecraft with highest proton fluxes over 200 pfu for energies $>$10 MeV. In situ particle measurements show that: (1) The profiles of the proton fluxes are highly dependent of the locations of their solar sources, namely flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs); (2) The solar particle release (SPR) times fall in the decay phase of the flare emission, and are in accordance with the times when the CMEs travel to an average height of 7.9 solar radii; (3) The time differences between the SPR and the flare peak are also dependent of the locations of the solar active regions (ARs). The results tend to support the concept of proton acceleration by the CME-driven shock, even though there exists a possibility of particle acceleration at flare site with subsequent perpendicular diffusion of accelerated particles in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We derive the integral ...

  13. Salient Features of the New Sunspot Number Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahluwalia, H. S.; Ygbuhay, R. C.

    2016-12-01

    Recently Clette et al. (Space Sci. Rev. 186, 35, 2014) completed the first revision of the international sunspot number SSN(V2) since its creation by Wolf in 1849 SSN(V1) starting in 1700 and ending in May 2015. The yearly values of SSN(V2) are larger than those of SSN(V1) but the secular trend in their timelines both exhibit a gradual descent after Cycle 21 minimum resulting in greatly reduced activity for Cycle 24. It has two peaks; one in 2012 due to activity in the north hemisphere (NH) and the other in 2014 due to excess activity in the south hemisphere (SH). The N-S excess of hemispheric SSNs is examined for 1950 - 2014, in relation to the time variations of the solar polar field for 1976 - 2015, covering five complete solar cycles (19 - 23) and parts of the bordering two (18, 24). We find that SH tends to become progressively more active in the declining phase of the cycles reaching an extreme value that gave rise to a second higher peak in October 2014 in the smoothed SSNs accompanied by a strong solar polar field in SH. There may be a Gleissberg cyclicity in the asymmetric solar dynamo operation. The continuing descent of the secular trend in SSNs implies that we may be near a Dalton-level grand minimum. The low activity spell may last well past 2060, accompanied by a stable but reduced level of the space weather/climate. Fourier spectrum of the time domain of SSNs shows no evidence of the 208 year/cycle (ypc) (DeVries/Suess cycle) seen in the cosmogenic radionuclide ({}^{10}Be) concentration in the polar ice cores and {}^{14}C record in trees indicating that 208 ypc peak may be of non-solar origin. It may arise from the climate process(es) that change(s) the way radionuclides are deposited on polar ice. It should be noted that we only have {˜} 400 years of SSN data, so it is possible that DeVries/Suess cycle is really driven by the Sun but for now we do not have any evidence of that; there is no known physical process linking 208 ypc to solar dynamo

  14. Sunspot rotation and magnetic transients associated with flares in NOAA AR 11429

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jian-Chuan; Yang, Zhi-Liang; Guo, Jian-Peng; Guo, Kai-Ming; Huang, Hui; Song, Xuan; Wan, Wei-Xing

    2017-08-01

    We analyze sunspot rotation and magnetic transients in NOAA AR 11429 during two X-class (X5.4 and X1.3) flares using data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. A large leading sunspot with positive magnetic polarity rotated counterclockwise. As expected, the rotation was significantly affected by the two flares. Magnetic transients induced by the flares were clearly evident in the sunspots with negative polarity. They were moving across the sunspots with speed of order 3 - 7 km s-1. Furthermore, the trend of magnetic flux evolution in these sunspots exhibited changes associated with the flares. These results may shed light on understanding the evolution of sunspots.

  15. Pre-Flare Dynamics of Sunspot Groups

    CERN Document Server

    Korsos, M B; Ludmany, A

    2014-01-01

    Several papers provide evidences that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare producing areas the present work intends to reveal the characteristic temporal variations in these regions prior to flares. This study uses sunspot data instead of magnetograms, it follows the behaviour of a suitable defined proxy measure representing the horizontal magnetic field gradient. The source of the data is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data) sunspot catalogue. The most promising pre-flare signatures are the following properties of the gradient variation: i) steep increase, ii) high maximum, iii) significant fluctuation and iv) a gradual decrease between the maximum and the flare onset which can be related to the "pull mode" of the current layer. These properties may yield a tool for the assessment of flare probability and intensity within the next 8-10 hours.

  16. Pre-flare dynamics of sunspot groups

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korsós, M. B.; Baranyi, T.; Ludmány, A., E-mail: korsos.marianna@csfk.mta.hu, E-mail: baranyi.tunde@csfk.mta.hu, E-mail: ludmany.andras@csfk.mta.hu [Heliophysical Observatory, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, 4010 Debrecen, P.O. Box 30 (Hungary)

    2014-07-10

    Several papers provide evidence that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare-producing areas, this work intends to reveal the characteristic temporal variations in these regions prior to flares. This study uses sunspot data instead of magnetograms and follows the behavior of a suitable defined proxy measure representing the horizontal magnetic field gradient. The source of the data is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data) sunspot catalog. The most promising pre-flare signatures are the following properties of gradient variation: (1) steep increase, (2) high maximum, (3) significant fluctuation, and (4) a gradual decrease between the maximum and the flare onset that can be related to the 'pull mode' of the current layer. These properties may yield a tool for the assessment of flare probability and intensity within the following 8-10 hr.

  17. The Influence of The Solar-cycle Induced Solar Wind Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahr, H.-J.; Scherer, K.

    In the course of the solar activity cycle both the solar wind velocity and density un- dergo quasi-sinusoidal variations. These longperiodic variations propagate outwards through the interplanetary space for over a year until they finally reach the heliospheric termination shock. The associated variation of the solar wind ram pressure not only influences there the stand-off distance of the termination shock, but also changes the production and the heliospheric distribution of pick-up ions (PUIs). As a consequence, also the production of anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) related to PUI-fluxes arriving at the shock varies, the propagation of ACRs is influenced and the modulation of the galactic cosmic rays strongly differs. To quantitatively study this scenario we use a a multi-fluid hydrodynamic simulation code to model the interaction of the solar-cycle modulated heliosphere with the interstellar medium. In this code all dynamically rel- evant species are described by separate plasma fluids within a consistent multifluid context. In a first step we describe the solar-cycle induced heliospheric variations by a series of static models, i.e. we discretizised the solar cycle variation of the SW param- eters and let each model for a selected set of SW parameters deliver an asymptotically stable state. Then we restart this procedure for the next set of SW parameters. The ob- tained set of different heliosphere configurations is then taken as envelopping a fully time-dependent model, in which the solar-cycle varying SW parameters are modeled on the basis of actually time-dependent variations. Here we present the results of the static model runs with emphasis on PUI, ACR and GCR distributions. We also will discuss first results of the time-dependent model.

  18. On signal-noise decomposition of timeseries using the continuous wavelet transform Application to sunspot index

    CERN Document Server

    Polygiannakis, J; Moussas, X

    2003-01-01

    We show that the continuous wavelet transform can provide a unique decomposition of a timeseries in to 'signal-like' and 'noise-like' components: From the overall wavelet spectrum two mutually independent skeleton spectra can be extracted, allowing the separate detection and monitoring in even non-stationary timeseries of the evolution of (a) both stable but also transient, evolving periodicities, such as the output of low dimensional dynamical systems and (b) scale-invariant structures, such as discontinuities, self-similar structures or noise. An indicative application to the monthly-averaged sunspot index reveals, apart from the well-known 11-year periodicity, 3 of its harmonics, the 2-year periodicity (quasi-biennial oscillation, QBO) and several more (some of which detected previously in various solar, earth-solar connection and climate indices), here proposed being just harmonics of the QBO, in all supporting the double-cycle solar magnetic dynamo model (Benevolenskaya, 1998, 2000). The scale maximal sp...

  19. Solar Cycle Length and Northern Hemisphere mean temperature revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thejll, P.

    2009-04-01

    The statistical relationship between the smoothed curve for solar cycle length and northern hemisphere land mean temperature has been a source of investigation in the question of whether and how much the Sun influences climate variations. The relationship was widely discussed following the 1991 paper by Friis-Christensen and Lassen and was updated in 2000 by Thejll and Lassen. Data for one more solar cycle has now accumulated, and the relationship is again reviewed and discussed. We derive and show the updated SCL and mean temperature curves. The relationship between the two is analysed using standard statistical methods. Additional climate forcing factors are introduced to improve the fit. Changes in the historical part of the mean temperature curve has occurred which modifies the previously seen relationship, and this is discussed.

  20. Possible relationship between changes in IMF, M7+ earthquakes and VEI index, during the transition between the solar minimum cycle 23 and the rise of solar cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casati, Michele; Straser, Valentino

    2013-04-01

    Numerous scientific papers seem to suggest a possible influence of solar activity on geological dynamics (hypothesis triggers earthquakes or volcanic activity) on Earth. In the following study, all earthquakes around the globe with a magnitude greater than or equal to 7, from January 2010 to November 2012, were taken into account which corresponds to the appearance of the first sunspot of Solar Cycle SC24. The data was then compared with the graph that shows the variations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This second track is the result of a moving average equal to 27 (solar rotation of Bartel) starting from the daily values of the field, detected by the magnetometer on board the probe Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). The analysis reveals a first major change in February 2010, when the IMF changes from 4.5 nT to about 5.8 nT . A second identical significant change is found in February 2011, when the IMF, went from 4.5 nT to about 5.8 nT. In March 2012, we have, the other way around, a third important change in the IMF, with later's dynamics registering a variation from 5.6 nT to about 6.8 nT. We find that the three most important seismic events of the last three years (M8.8 in Chile 27/02/2010; M9 in Japan on 11/03/2011, and M8.6 on 11/04/2012 in Sumatra) occurred at the same time or slightly after the peaks (Bmax) of increase in the magnetic field of the heliosphere "facing the Earth" were reached. The analysis also suggests further connections between earthquakes with M> 7 and when the peak (maximum value the IMF) were reached, recorded in other changes in the field in these three years. Like, for example, the earthquake of M7.5 in India of 12/06/2010, when the IMF increased from 4.5 nT to 5.2 nT, or the earthquake in Sumatra 25/10/2010, when the IMF went from 4.4 nT to 5.1 nT. The variation of the IMF, recorded in May 2011, from 4.7 nT to 5.9 nT, relates, for example, not only with the M7.6 earthquake in Kermadec (07/06/2011), but also with

  1. The South Atlantic Anomaly throughout the solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingos, João; Jault, Dominique; Pais, Maria Alexandra; Mandea, Mioara

    2017-09-01

    The Sun-Earth's interaction is characterized by a highly dynamic electromagnetic environment, in which the magnetic field produced in the Earth's core plays an important role. One of the striking characteristics of the present geomagnetic field is denoted the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) where the total field intensity is unusually low and the flux of charged particles, trapped in the inner Van Allen radiation belts, is maximum. Here, we use, on one hand, a recent geomagnetic field model, CHAOS-6, and on the other hand, data provided by different platforms (satellites orbiting the Earth - POES NOAA for 1998-2014 and CALIPSO for 2006-2014). Evolution of the SAA particle flux can be seen as the result of two main effects, the secular variation of the Earth's core magnetic field and the modulation of the density of the inner radiation belts during the solar cycle, as a function of the L value that characterises the drift shell, where charged particles are trapped. To study the evolution of the particle flux anomaly, we rely on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of either POES particle flux or CALIOP dark noise. Analysed data are distributed on a geographical grid at satellite altitude, based on a L-shell reference frame constructed from the moving eccentric dipole. Changes in the main magnetic field are responsible for the observed westward drift. Three PCA modes account for the time evolution related to solar effects. Both the first and second modes have a good correlation with the thermospheric density, which varies in response to the solar cycle. The first mode represents the total intensity variation of the particle flux in the SAA, and the second the movement of the anomaly between different L-shells. The proposed analysis allows us to well recover the westward drift rate, as well as the latitudinal and longitudinal solar cycle oscillations, although the analysed data do not cover a complete (Hale) magnetic solar cycle (around 22 yr). Moreover, the developments

  2. Life-cycle analysis of product integrated polymer solar cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Espinosa Martinez, Nieves; García-Valverde, Rafael; Krebs, Frederik C

    2011-01-01

    economics through design to functionality. An LCA study was performed to quantify the energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity use in the manufacture of a light-weight lamp based on a plastic foil, a lithium-polymer battery, a polymer solar cell, printed circuitry, blocking diode......A life cycle analysis (LCA) on a product integrated polymer solar module is carried out in this study. These assessments are well-known to be useful in developmental stages of a product in order to identify the bottlenecks for the up-scaling in its production phase for several aspects spanning from...... on the complete product integrated polymer solar cell. We have compared this portable lighting system with other lighting solutions, namely: a kerosene lamp in a remote rural area in Africa (Ethiopia), as a replacement of a silicon PV based lamp, in place of a torch with non-rechargeable lead-acid battery...

  3. Solar/gas Rankine/Rankine-cycle heat pump assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalifa, H. E.; Melikian, G.

    1982-07-01

    This report contains an assessment of the technical and economic feasibility of Rankine-cycle solar-augmented gas-fired heat pumps (SAGFHP) for multi-family residential and light-commercial applications. The SAGFHP design considered in this report is based on the successful UTRC turbocompressor system which has been tested both in the laboratory and in a solar cooling installation in Phoenix. AZ. An hour-by-hour modeling of present-design SAGFHP performance in multi-family and office buildings in New York, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Oregon indicated that, even without solar augmentation, primary energy savings of up 17% and 31% could be achieved relative to advanced furnace plus electric air conditioning systems and electric heat pumps, respectively.

  4. Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901-2007

    CERN Document Server

    Aslam, O P M

    2014-01-01

    We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun-climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations.

  5. Comparing Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields over Several Solar Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koskela, J. S.; Virtanen, I. I.; Mursula, K.

    2017-01-01

    Here we use the PFSS model and photospheric data from Wilcox Solar Observatory, SOHO/MDI, SDO/HMI, and SOLIS to compare the coronal field with heliospheric magnetic field measured at 1 au, compiled in the NASA/NSSDC OMNI 2 data set. We calculate their mutual polarity match and the power of the radial decay, p, of the radial field using different source surface distances and different number of harmonic multipoles. We find the average polarity match of 82% for the declining phase, 78%–79% for maxima, 76%–78% for the ascending phase, and 74%–76% for minima. On an average, the source surface of 3.25 RS gives the best polarity match. We also find strong evidence for solar cycle variation of the optimal source surface distance, with highest values (3.3 RS) during solar minima and lowest values (2.6 RS–2.7 RS) during the other three solar cycle phases. Raising the number of harmonic terms beyond 2 rarely improves the polarity match, showing that the structure of the HMF at 1 au is most of the time rather simple. All four data sets yield fairly similar polarity matches. Thus, polarity comparison is not affected by photospheric field scaling, unlike comparisons of the field intensity.

  6. Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.

    2012-10-01

    Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth's surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

  7. Reconstruction of Subdecadal Changes in Sunspot Numbers Based on the NGRIP 10Be Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inceoglu, F.; Knudsen, M. F.; Karoff, C.; Olsen, J.

    2014-11-01

    Sunspot observations since 1610 A.D. show that the solar magnetic activity displays long-term changes, from Maunder Minimum-like low-activity states to Modern Maximum-like high-activity episodes, as well as short-term variations, such as the pronounced 11-year periodicity. Information on changes in solar activity levels before 1610 relies on proxy records of solar activity stored in natural archives, such as 10Be in ice cores and 14C in tree rings. These cosmogenic radionuclides are produced by the interaction between Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and atoms in the Earth's atmosphere; their production rates are anti-correlated with the solar magnetic activity. The GCR intensity displays a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the GCRs in the heliosphere, which is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle. This implies a time lag between the actual solar cycles and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) records of the 10Be flux to reconstruct the solar modulation strength (Φ), which describes the modulation of GCRs throughout the heliosphere, to reconstruct both long-term and subdecadal changes in sunspot numbers (SSNs). We compare three different approaches for reconstructing subdecadal-scale changes in SSNs, including a linear approach and two approaches based on the hysteresis effect, i.e. models with ellipse-linear and ellipse relationships between Φ and SSNs. We find that the ellipse approach provides an amplitude-sensitive reconstruction and the highest cross-correlation coefficients in comparison with the ellipse-linear and linear approaches. The long-term trend in the reconstructed SSNs is computed using a physics-based model and agrees well with the other group SSN reconstructions. The new empirical approach, combining a physics-based model with ellipse-modeling of the 11-year cycle, therefore provides a method for

  8. The Solar Rotational Activity Variations during the 23-th Solar Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, R.; Hempelmann, A.; Valev, D.; Kostadinov, I.; Atanassov, At.; Giovanelli, G.; Petritoli, A.; Bortoli, D.; Ravegnani, F.

    2006-03-01

    The study of the solar activity variability has been of great interest since its discovery. On the one hand it is important for the understanding of the Sun as an active star and on the other hand for the investigations of the solar-terrestrial connections. The solar magnetic field reverses approximately every 22 years, and manifests the 11-year solar cycle, in which the Sun changes its activity from its maximum value to the minimum one. The activity variations, developed by the sun surface rotation in connection with the nonsymmetrical distribution of active regions over the solar disc appear in a shorter time scale. As it is well known, these variations have periods of about 27 days. The solar surface rotates with different velocity, depending on the latitude. The differential solar rotation period, observed from the Earth, varies from 26.75 days at the solar equator up to approximately 29 days at higher latitudes. However the observed periodicity is generally in a wider range: from 20 up to 36 days. This wider spread is a result of the combination of both active-region evolution and solar rotation. A simple empirical solar activity model is proposed, which describes the obtained behavior by harmonic oscillations with simultaneous amplitude and phase modulation. The solar rotational periodicity is analyzed using wavelet. It is demonstrated, that the model describes well the separate episodes of the active region evolution. Both kinds of modulations are the consequence of activity region growth or decay and hence, they are a result of a variable pattern of spots and active regions on the solar surface.

  9. Performance of the Autoregressive Method in Long-Term Prediction of Sunspot Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, Jongchul; Kim, Yeon Han

    2017-04-01

    The autoregressive method provides a univariate procedure to predict the future sunspot number (SSN) based on past record. The strength of this method lies in the possibility that from past data it yields the SSN in the future as a function of time. On the other hand, its major limitation comes from the intrinsic complexity of solar magnetic activity that may deviate from the linear stationary process assumption that is the basis of the autoregressive model. By analyzing the residual errors produced by the method, we have obtained the following conclusions: (1) the optimal duration of the past time for the forecast is found to be 8.5 years; (2) the standard error increases with prediction horizon and the errors are mostly systematic ones resulting from the incompleteness of the autoregressive model; (3) there is a tendency that the predicted value is underestimated in the activity rising phase, while it is overestimated in the declining phase; (5) the model prediction of a new Solar Cycle is fairly good when it is similar to the previous one, but is bad when the new cycle is much different from the previous one; (6) a reasonably good prediction of a new cycle can be made using the AR model 1.5 years after the start of the cycle. In addition, we predict the next cycle (Solar Cycle 25) will reach the peak in 2024 at the activity level similar to the current cycle.

  10. Correlation Between Sunspot Number and ca II K Emission Index

    CERN Document Server

    Bertello, Luca; Tlatov, Andrey; Singh, Jagdev

    2016-01-01

    Long-term synoptic observations in the resonance line of Ca II K constitute a fundamental database for a variety of retrospective analyses of the state of the solar magnetism. Synoptic Ca II K observations began in late 1904 at the Kodaikanal Observatory, in India. In early 1970s, the National Solar Observatory (NSO) at Sacramento Peak (USA) started a new program of daily Sun-as-a-star observations in the Ca II K line. Today the NSO is continuing these observations through its Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) facility. These different data sets can be combined into a single disk-integrated Ca II K index time series that describes the average properties of the chromospheric emission over several solar cycles. We present such a Ca II K composite and discuss its correlation with the new entirely revised sunspot number data series. For this preliminary investigation, the scaling factor between pairs of time series was determined assuming a simple linear model for the relationship betwe...

  11. Correlation Between Sunspot Number and Ca ii K Emission Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertello, Luca; Pevtsov, Alexei; Tlatov, Andrey; Singh, Jagdev

    2016-11-01

    Long-term synoptic observations in the resonance line of Ca ii K constitute a fundamental database for a variety of retrospective analyses of the state of the solar magnetism. Synoptic Ca ii K observations began in late 1904 at the Kodaikanal Observatory in India. In the early 1970s, the National Solar Observatory (NSO) at Sacramento Peak (USA) started a new program of daily Sun-as-a-star observations in the Ca ii K line. Today the NSO is continuing these observations through its Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) facility. These different data sets can be combined into a single disk-integrated Ca ii K index time series that describes the average properties of the chromospheric emission over several solar cycles. We present such a Ca ii K composite and discuss its correlation with the new entirely revised sunspot number data series. For this preliminary investigation, the scaling factor between pairs of time series was determined assuming a simple linear model for the relationship between the monthly mean values during the duration of overlapping observations.

  12. Solar cycle in current reanalyses: (nonlinear attribution study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kuchar

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11 year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks besides the traditional linear approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis datasets for the 1979–2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how this type of data resolves especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the lower and upper stratosphere were found to be sufficiently robust and in qualitative agreement with previous observational studies. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Consequently the results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all datasets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal dependence of the solar response was also discussed, mainly as a source of dynamical causalities in the wave propagation characteristics in the zonal wind and the induced meridional circulation in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer Dobson circulation was reviewed together with discussion of polar vortex stability.

  13. Solar cycle in current reanalyses: (non)linear attribution study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

    2014-12-01

    This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11 year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks) besides the traditional linear approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis datasets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how this type of data resolves especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the lower and upper stratosphere were found to be sufficiently robust and in qualitative agreement with previous observational studies. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Consequently the results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all datasets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal dependence of the solar response was also discussed, mainly as a source of dynamical causalities in the wave propagation characteristics in the zonal wind and the induced meridional circulation in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer Dobson circulation was reviewed together with discussion of polar vortex stability.

  14. Solar Features - Solar Flares

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A solar flare is a short-lived sudden increase in the intensity of radiation emitted in the neighborhood of sunspots. For many years it was best monitored in the...

  15. Towards better constrained models of the solar magnetic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres

    2010-12-01

    The best tools we have for understanding the origin of solar magnetic variability are kinematic dynamo models. During the last decade, this type of models has seen a continuous evolution and has become increasingly successful at reproducing solar cycle characteristics. The basic ingredients of these models are: the solar differential rotation -- which acts as the main source of energy for the system by shearing the magnetic field; the meridional circulation -- which plays a crucial role in magnetic field transport; the turbulent diffusivity -- which attempts to capture the effect of convective turbulence on the large scale magnetic field; and the poloidal field source -- which closes the cycle by regenerating the poloidal magnetic field. However, most of these ingredients remain poorly constrained which allows one to obtain solar-like solutions by "tuning" the input parameters, leading to controversy regarding which parameter set is more appropriate. In this thesis we revisit each of those ingredients in an attempt to constrain them better by using observational data and theoretical considerations, reducing the amount of free parameters in the model. For the meridional flow and differential rotation we use helioseismic data to constrain free parameters and find that the differential rotation is well determined, but the available data can only constrain the latitudinal dependence of the meridional flow. For the turbulent magnetic diffusivity we show that combining mixing-length theory estimates with magnetic quenching allows us to obtain viable magnetic cycles and that the commonly used diffusivity profiles can be understood as a spatiotemporal average of this process. For the poloidal source we introduce a more realistic way of modeling active region emergence and decay and find that this resolves existing discrepancies between kinematic dynamo models and surface flux transport simulations. We also study the physical mechanisms behind the unusually long minimum of

  16. Automatic Detection of Magnetic delta in Sunspot Groups

    CERN Document Server

    Padinhatteeri, Sreejith; Bloomfield, D Shaun; Gallagher, Peter T

    2015-01-01

    Large and magnetically complex sunspot groups are known to be associated with flares. To date, the Mount Wilson scheme has been used to classify sunspot groups based on their morphological and magnetic properties. The most flare prolific class, the delta sunspot-group, is characterised by opposite polarity umbrae within a common penumbra, separated by less than 2 degrees. In this article, we present a new system, called the Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker - Delta Finder (SMART-DF), that can be used to automatically detect and classify magnetic deltas in near-realtime. Using continuum images and magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), we first estimate distances between opposite polarity umbrae. Opposite polarity pairs having distances of less that 2 degrees are then identified, and if these pairs are found to share a common penumbra, they are identified as a magnetic delta configuration. The algorithm was compared to manual delta detect...

  17. Sunspot rotation. I. A consequence of flux emergence

    CERN Document Server

    Sturrock, Z; Archontis, V; McNeill, C M

    2015-01-01

    Context. Solar eruptions and high flare activity often accompany the rapid rotation of sunspots. The study of sunspot rotation and the mechanisms driving this motion are therefore key to our understanding of how the solar atmosphere attains the conditions necessary for large energy release. Aims. We aim to demonstrate and investigate the rotation of sunspots in a 3D numerical experiment of the emergence of a magnetic flux tube as it rises through the solar interior and emerges into the atmosphere. Furthermore, we seek to show that the sub-photospheric twist stored in the interior is injected into the solar atmosphere by means of a definitive rotation of the sunspots. Methods. A numerical experiment is performed to solve the 3D resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations using a Lagrangian-Remap code. We track the emergence of a toroidal flux tube as it rises through the solar interior and emerges into the atmosphere investigating various quantities related to both the magnetic field and plasma. Results. Thr...

  18. Solar cycles or random processes? Evaluating solar variability in Holocene climate records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, T Edward; Swindles, Graeme T; Charman, Dan J; Langdon, Peter G; Morris, Paul J; Booth, Robert K; Parry, Lauren E; Nichols, Jonathan E

    2016-04-05

    Many studies have reported evidence for solar-forcing of Holocene climate change across a range of archives. These studies have compared proxy-climate data with records of solar variability (e.g. (14)C or (10)Be), or have used time series analysis to test for the presence of solar-type cycles. This has led to some climate sceptics misrepresenting this literature to argue strongly that solar variability drove the rapid global temperature increase of the twentieth century. As proxy records underpin our understanding of the long-term processes governing climate, they need to be evaluated thoroughly. The peatland archive has become a prominent line of evidence for solar forcing of climate. Here we examine high-resolution peatland proxy climate data to determine whether solar signals are present. We find a wide range of significant periodicities similar to those in records of solar variability: periods between 40-100 years, and 120-140 years are particularly common. However, periodicities similar to those in the data are commonly found in random-walk simulations. Our results demonstrate that solar-type signals can be the product of random variations alone, and that a more critical approach is required for their robust interpretation.

  19. Wavelet-analysis of series of observations of relative sunspot numbers. The dependence of the periods of cyclic activity on the time at different time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Borisov, A A; Bruevich, V V; Rozgacheva, I K; Shimanovskaya, E V

    2015-01-01

    We applied the method of continuous wavelet-transform to high-quality time-frequency analysis to the sets of observations of relative sunspot numbers. Wavelet analysis of these data reveals the following pattern: at the same time there are several activity cycles whose periods vary widely from the quasi biennial up to the centennial period. These relatively low-frequency periodic variations of the solar activity gradually change the values of periods of different cycles in time. This phenomenon can be observed in every cycle of activity.

  20. Understanding Activity Cycles of Solar Type Stars with Kepler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovar, Guadalupe; Montet, Benjamin; Johnson, John A.

    2017-01-01

    As the era of exploring new worlds and systems advances we seek to answer the question: How common is our Sun? There is considerable evidence about the recurring activity cycles of our Sun but very little is known about the activity cycles of other stars. By calibrating the full frame images from the original Kepler mission that were taken once a month over the course of four years, we are able to do relative photometry on roughly 5 million stars. By building a model of the pixel response function we were able to achieve 0.8% precision photometry. We identify 50,000 solar type stars based on magnitude, surface gravity, and temperature cuts. We observe the relative increase and decrease in brightness of the stars indicating signs of activity cycles similar to our Sun. We continue to explore how a data driven pixel response function model could improve our precision to 0.1% photometry measurements.

  1. Indirect comparison of Debrecen and Greenwich daily sums of sunspot areas

    CERN Document Server

    Baranyi, T; Coffey, H E

    2013-01-01

    Sunspot area data play an important role in the studies of solar activity and its long-term variations. In order to reveal real long-term solar variations precise homogeneous sunspot area databases should be used. However, the measured areas may be burdened with systematic deviations, which may vary in time. Thus, there is a need to investigate the long-term variation of sunspot area datasets and to determine the time-dependent cross-calibration factors. In this study, we investigate the time-dependent differences between the available long-term sunspot databases. Using the results, we estimate the correction factor to calibrate the corrected daily sunspot areas of Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) to the same data of Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) by using the overlapping Kislovodsk and Pulkovo data. We give the correction factor as GPR=1.08(\\pm 0.11)*DPD

  2. LOOKING FOR GRANULATION AND PERIODICITY IMPRINTS IN THE SUNSPOT TIME SERIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopes, Ilídio [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofísica, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Silva, Hugo G., E-mail: ilidio.lopes@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, E-mail: hgsilva@uevora.pt [Departamento de Física, ECT, Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7002-554 Évora (Portugal)

    2015-05-10

    The sunspot activity is the end result of the cyclic destruction and regeneration of magnetic fields by the dynamo action. We propose a new method to analyze the daily sunspot areas data recorded since 1874. By computing the power spectral density of daily data series using the Mexican hat wavelet, we found a power spectrum with a well-defined shape, characterized by three features. The first term is the 22 yr solar magnetic cycle, estimated in our work to be 18.43 yr. The second term is related to the daily volatility of sunspots. This term is most likely produced by the turbulent motions linked to the solar granulation. The last term corresponds to a periodic source associated with the solar magnetic activity, for which the maximum power spectral density occurs at 22.67 days. This value is part of the 22–27 day periodicity region that shows an above-average intensity in the power spectra. The origin of this 22.67 day periodic process is not clearly identified, and there is a possibility that it can be produced by convective flows inside the star. The study clearly shows a north–south asymmetry. The 18.43 yr periodical source is correlated between the two hemispheres, but the 22.67 day one is not correlated. It is shown that toward the large timescales an excess occurs in the northern hemisphere, especially near the previous two periodic sources. To further investigate the 22.67 day periodicity, we made a Lomb–Scargle spectral analysis. The study suggests that this periodicity is distinct from others found nearby.

  3. 70 years of Sunspot Observations at Kanzelh\\"ohe Observatory: systematic study of parameters affecting the derivation of the relative sunspot number

    CERN Document Server

    Pötzi, Werner; Temmer, Manuela; Baumgartner, Dietmar; Freislich, Heinrich; Strutzmann, Heinz

    2015-01-01

    Kanzelh\\"ohe Observatory (KSO) was founded during World War II by the "Deutsche Luftwaffe" (German Airforces) as one station of a network of observatories, which should provide information on solar activity in order to better assess the actual conditions of the Earth's ionosphere in terms of radio wave propagation. The solar observations began in 1943 with photographs of the photosphere, drawings of sunspots, plage regions and faculae, as well as patrol observations of the solar corona. At the beginning all data was sent to Freiburg (Germany). After WWII international cooperation was established and the data was sent to Zurich, Paris, Moscow and Greenwich. Relative sunspot numbers are derived since 1944. The agreement between relative sunspot numbers derived at KSO and the new International Sunspot Number (ISN) \\citep{SIDC} lies within $\\sim10\\%$. However, revisiting the historical data, we also find periods with larger deviations. The reasons for the deviations were twofold: (1) On the one hand a major instr...

  4. Climatic response to a time varying solar constant

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, G. R.; Short, D. A.; Mengel, J. G.

    1983-01-01

    Recent measurements of the solar constant, theoretical arguments, and climatic measurements combined with signal processing suggest the possibility that the solar constant varies significantly on time scales ranging from billions of years to 11-yr (sunspot) cycles, and even to scales of a few weeks. Simple climate models with a time varying solar constant are examined here, with emphasis on the heat balance models (North et al., 1981). Linear heat balance model results are presented for high (10 cycles/yr) and low (0.1 cycle/yr) frequencies, providing a useful guide in estimating the direct heat response to solar variability.

  5. On Global Magnetic ``Monopoly'' Near Solar Cycle Maximums

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kryvodubskyj, V.

    During last maximums of the solar activity the both poles of the polar magnetic field had the same polarity. Since in the turbulent α Ω -dynamo model the excitation thresholds of the periodic dipole and quadrupole modes of the poloidal madnetic field (PMF) are rather close [Parker E. N.: 1971, Ap.J. V. 164, p. 491] then it is possible that the quadrupole mode may be excited due to variations of physical parameters in a some regions of the solar convection zone (SCZ). The pattern of the excited modes (dipole, quadrupole, octupole, etc.) is determined by the values of wave number of the Parker's dynamo-wave. We calculated these values for the SCZ model by Stix (1989) [Stix M.: 1989, The Sun. Berlin, p. 200] in the vicinity of solar tachocline (a region of strong shear of angular velocity at the base of the SCZ) with using our estimation of the helical turbulence parameter [Krivodubskij V. N.: 1998, Astron. Reports V. 42, No 1, p. 122] and values of the radial gradient of the angular velocity obtained from the newer helioseismic measurements (during rising phase of 23th solar cycle: 1995-1999) [Howe R.,Christensen-Dalsgaard J., Hill F. et al.: 2000, Science. V. 287, p. 2456]. It is found out that at low latitudes dynamo mechanism produces rather the dipole (wave number ≈ -7), the main antisymmetric, relatively to equatorial plane, mode of the PMF; while at the latitudes higher than 50o the conditions are more favourable for exciting of the quadrupole (wave number ≈ +8), the lowest symmetric mode. Arised north-south magnetic structure asymmetry gives an opportunity to explain the space magnetic anomaly of the PMF (``monopoly'') observed near solar cycle maximums.

  6. A Revised Collection of Sunspot Group Numbers

    CERN Document Server

    Vaquero, J M; Carrasco, V M S; Clette, F; Lefèvre, L; Gallego, M C; Arlt, R; Aparicio, A J P; Richard, J -G; Howe, R

    2016-01-01

    We describe a revised collection of the number of sunspot groups from 1610 to the present. This new collection is based on the work of Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998). The main changes are the elimination of a considerable number of observations during the Maunder Minimum (hereafter, MM) and the inclusion of several long series of observations. Numerous minor changes are also described. Moreover, we have calculated the active-day percentage during the MM from this new collection as a reliable index of the solar activity. Thus, the level of solar activity obtained in this work is greater than the level obtained using the original Hoyt and Schatten data, although it remains compatible with a grand minimum of solar activity. The new collection is available in digital format.

  7. Galactic and solar radiation exposure to aircrew during a solar cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I.; Green, A.R.; McCall, M.J.; Ellaschuk, B.; Butler, A.; Pierre, M

    2002-07-01

    An on-going investigation using a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been carried out to measure the ambient dose equivalent rate of the cosmic radiation exposure of aircrew during a solar cycle. A semi-empirical model has been derived from these data to allow for the interpolation of the dose rate for any global position. The model has been extended to an altitude of up to 32 km with further measurements made on board aircraft and several balloon flights. The effects of changing solar modulation during the solar cycle are characterised by correlating the dose rate data to different solar potential models. Through integration of the dose-rate function over a great circle flight path or between given waypoints, a Predictive Code for Aircrew Radiation Exposure has been further developed for estimation of the route dose from galactic cosmic radiation exposure. This estimate is provided in units of ambient dose equivalent as well as effective dose, based on E/H*(10) scaling functions as determined from transport code calculations with LUIN and FLUKA. This experimentally based treatment has also been compared with the CARI-6 and EPCARD codes that are derived solely from theoretical transport calculations. Using TEPC measurements taken aboard the International Space Station, ground based neutron monitoring, GOES satellite data and transport code analysis, an empirical model has been further proposed for estimation of aircrew exposure during solar particle events. This model has been compared to results obtained during recent solar flare events. (author)

  8. Galactic and solar radiation exposure to aircrew during a solar cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, B J; Bennett, L G I; Green, A R; McCall, M J; Ellaschuk, B; Butler, A; Pierre, M

    2002-01-01

    An on-going investigation using a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been carried out to measure the ambient dose equivalent rate of the cosmic radiation exposure of aircrew during a solar cycle. A semi-empirical model has been derived from these data to allow for the interpolation of the dose rate for any global position. The model has been extended to an altitude of up to 32 km with further measurements made on board aircraft and several balloon flights. The effects of changing solar modulation during the solar cycle are characterised by correlating the dose rate data to different solar potential models. Through integration of the dose-rate function over a great circle flight path or between given waypoints, a Predictive Code for Aircrew Radiation Exposure (PCAIRE) has been further developed for estimation of the route dose from galactic cosmic radiation exposure. This estimate is provided in units of ambient dose equivalent as well as effective dose, based on E/H x (10) scaling functions as determined from transport code calculations with LUIN and FLUKA. This experimentally based treatment has also been compared with the CARI-6 and EPCARD codes that are derived solely from theoretical transport calculations. Using TEPC measurements taken aboard the International Space Station, ground based neutron monitoring, GOES satellite data and transport code analysis, an empirical model has been further proposed for estimation of aircrew exposure during solar particle events. This model has been compared to results obtained during recent solar flare events.

  9. Climate Sensitivity and Solar Cycle Response in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, M.; Lin, L.; Tung, K. K.; Yung, Y. L.

    2011-12-01

    Climate sensitivity, broadly defined, is a measure of the response of the climate system to the changes of external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and solar radiation, including climate feedback processes. General circulation models provide a means to quantitatively incorporate various feedback processes, such as water-vapor, cloud and albedo feedbacks. Less attention is devoted so far to the role of the oceans in significantly affecting these processes and hence the modelled transient climate sensitivity. Here we show that the oceanic mixing plays an important role in modifying the multi-decadal to centennial oscillations of the sea surface temperature, which in turn affect the derived climate sensitivity at various phases of the oscillations. The eleven-year solar cycle forcing is used to calibrate the response of the climate system. The GISS-EH coupled atmosphere-ocean model was run twice in coupled mode for more than 2000 model years, each with a different value for the ocean eddy mixing parameter. In both runs, there is a prominent low-frequency oscillation with a period of 300-500 years, and depending on the phase of such an oscillation, the derived climate gain factor varies by a factor of 2. The run with the value of the eddy ocean mixing parameter that is half that used in IPCC AR4 study has the more realistic low-frequency variability in SST and in the derived response to the known solar-cycle forcing.

  10. Spectropolarimetrically accurate magnetohydrostatic sunspot model for forward modelling in helioseismology

    CERN Document Server

    Przybylski, D; Cally, P S

    2015-01-01

    We present a technique to construct a spectropolarimetrically accurate magneto-hydrostatic model of a large-scale solar magnetic field concentration, mimicking a sunspot. Using the constructed model we perform a simulation of acoustic wave propagation, conversion and absorption in the solar interior and photosphere with the sunspot embedded into it. With the $6173\\mathrm{\\AA}$ magnetically sensitive photospheric absorption line of neutral iron, we calculate observable quantities such as continuum intensities, Doppler velocities, as well as full Stokes vector for the simulation at various positions at the solar disk, and analyse the influence of non-locality of radiative transport in the solar photosphere on helioseismic measurements. Bisector shapes were used to perform multi-height observations. The differences in acoustic power at different heights within the line formation region at different positions at the solar disk were simulated and characterised. An increase in acoustic power in the simulated observ...

  11. Coordination failure caused by sunspots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beugnot, Julie; Gürgüç, Zeynep; Øvlisen, Frederik Roose

    2012-01-01

    In a coordination game with Pareto-ranked equilibria, we study whether a sunspot can lead to either coordination on an inferior equilibrium (mis-coordination) or to out-of equilibrium behavior (dis-coordination). While much of the literature searches for mechanisms to attain coordination...... on the efficient equilibrium, we consider sunspots as a potential reason for coordination failure. We conduct an experiment with a three player 2x2x2 game in which coordination on the efficient equilibrium is easy and should normally occur. In the control session, we find almost perfect coordination on the payoff......-dominant equilibrium, but in the sunspot treatment, dis-coordination is frequent. Sunspots lead to significant inefficiency, and we conclude that sunspots can indeed cause coordination failure....

  12. An Educational Display of the Solar Magnetic Cycle: Year 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, H. P.; Gearen, M. V.; Jacoby, S. H.

    1999-05-01

    We are developing an educational module to improve student and public understanding of the Sun's magnetic cycle. The instructional package features a CDROM compatible with most personal computers available in the home or classroom with a day-by-day record of an entire magnetic cycle as recorded in magnetograms from the National Solar Observatory Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope (NSO/KPVT) near Tucson, AZ. These data have in fact been crucial to developing our present understanding of the solar cycle and its terrestrial effects. In the second year of the project, we have loaded the data to compact disks both as individual "gif" files for inspection and analysis and as QuickTime movies, have prepared the first version of the accompanying textual material, and are developing macros to aid extraction of information from the data for various laboratory exercises. We will display samples of these images and movies, and will furnish copies of the compact disks and accompanying textual material for testing and comment.

  13. The statistical properties of spread F observed at Hainan station during the declining period of the 23rd solar cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. Wang

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The temporal variations of the low latitude nighttime spread F (SF observed by DPS-4 digisonde at low latitude Hainan station (geog. 19.5° N, 109.1° E, dip lat. 9.5° N during the declining solar cycle 23 from March 2002 to February 2008 are studied. The spread F measured by the digisonde were classified into four types, i.e., frequency SF (FSF, range SF (RSF, mixed SF (MSF, and strong range SF (SSF. The statistical results show that MSF and SSF are the outstanding irregularities in Hainan, MSF mainly occurs during summer and low solar activity years, whereas SSF mainly occurs during equinoxes and high solar activity years. The SSF has a diurnal peak before midnight and usually appears during 20:00–02:00 LT, whereas MSF peaks nearly or after midnight and occurs during 22:00–06:00 LT. The time of maximum occurrence of SSF is later in summer than in equinoxes and this time delay can be caused by the later reversal time of the E×B drift in summer. The SunSpot Number (SSN dependence of each type SF is different during different season. The FSF is independent of SSN during each season; RSF with SSN is positive relation during equinoxes and summer and is no relationship during the winter; MSF is significant dependence on SSN during the summer and winter, and does not relate to SSN during the equinoxes; SSF is clearly increasing with SSN during equinoxes and summer, while it is independent of SSN during the winter. The occurrence numbers of each type SF and total SF have the same trend, i.e., increasing as Kp increases from 0 to 1, and then decreasing as increasing Kp. The correlation with Kp is negative for RSF, MSF, SSF and total SF, but is vague for the FSF.

  14. High-energy solar particle events in cycle 24

    CERN Document Server

    Gopalswamy, Nat; Yashiro, Seiji; Xie, Hong; Akiyama, Sachiko; Thakur, Neeharika

    2015-01-01

    The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000...

  15. Solar Cycle Variations of Fe-rich SEP Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cane, H. V.; Richardson, I. G.

    2006-12-01

    An investigation of the characteristics of large solar energetic particle (SEP) events with >25 MeV/nuc event- -averaged Fe/O above 0.5 shows that such events have a rapid rise to maximum intensity and little evidence of particle acceleration at the passage of an interplanetary shock in this energy range. We explore the reasons why such events were not seen by near--Earth spacecraft in 2004 and 2005. One reason, that we have already documented, is that fast shocks (transit speeds above 1000 km/s) are relatively more common after solar maximum. The disappearance of Fe--rich events late in Cycle 23 has been used by Tylka et al. (2006) to argue for the absence of flare particles both as seed particles for shocks and as direct contributors to large SEP events. However, such arguments ignore the fact that there were no events with the other characteristics of Fe-rich events.

  16. Latitude and power characteristics of solar activity in the end of the Maunder minimum

    CERN Document Server

    Ivanov, V G

    2016-01-01

    Two important sources of information about sunspots in the Maunder minimum are the Sp\\"orer catalog and observations of the Paris observatory, which cover in total the last quarter of the 17th and the first two decades of the 18th century. These data, in particular, contain information about sunspot latitudes. As we showed in previous papers, dispersions of sunspot latitude distributions are tightly related to sunspot indices, so we can estimate the level of solar activity in this epoch by a method which is not based on direct calculation of sunspots and is weakly affected by loss of observational data. The latitude distributions of sunspots in the time of transition from the Maunder minimum to the common regime of solar activity proved to be wide enough. It gives evidences in favor of, first, not very low cycle No. -3 (1712-1723) with the Wolf number in maximum W=$100\\pm50$, and, second, nonzero activity in the maximum of cycle No. -4 (1700-1711) W=$60\\pm45$. Therefore, the latitude distributions in the end ...

  17. Fully Automated Sunspot Detection and Classification Using SDO HMI Imagery in MATLAB

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-27

    The features of a sunspot and other local sunspots considered part of a group are assigned a classification, defined by the solar astrophysics ...processing. In the second stage, elementary image processing techniques are used to condition the data. The third stage involves the detection of...active regions and coronal holes on euv images, arXiv preprint arXiv:1208.1483, 2012. Foukal, P. V., Solar astrophysics , Wiley-VCH, 2008. Gonzalez, R

  18. Intermittency of the Solar Magnetic Field and Solar Magnetic Activity Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibalova, A. S.; Obridko, V. N.; Sokoloff, D. D.

    2017-03-01

    Small-scale solar magnetic fields demonstrate features of fractal intermittent behavior, which requires quantification. For this purpose we investigate how the observational estimate of the solar magnetic flux density B depends on resolution D in order to obtain the scaling ln BD = - k ln D +a in a reasonably wide range. The quantity k demonstrates cyclic variations typical of a solar activity cycle. In addition, k depends on the magnetic flux density, i.e. the ratio of the magnetic flux to the area over which the flux is calculated, at a given instant. The quantity a demonstrates some cyclic variation, but it is much weaker than in the case of k. The scaling obtained generalizes previous scalings found for the particular cycle phases. The scaling is typical of fractal structures. In our opinion, the results obtained trace small-scale action in the solar convective zone and its coexistence with the conventional large-scale solar dynamo based on differential rotation and mirror-asymmetric convection.

  19. A new look at sunspot formation using theory and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losada, I. R.; Warnecke, J.; Glogowski, K.; Roth, M.; Brandenburg, A.; Kleeorin, N.; Rogachevskii, I.

    2017-10-01

    Sunspots are of basic interest in the study of the Sun. Their relevance ranges from them being an activity indicator of magnetic fields to being the place where coronal mass ejections and flares erupt. They are therefore also an important ingredient of space weather. Their formation, however, is still an unresolved problem in solar physics. Observations utilize just 2D surface information near the spot, but it is debatable how to infer deep structures and properties from local helioseismology. For a long time, it was believed that flux tubes rising from the bottom of the convection zone are the origin of the bipolar sunspot structure seen on the solar surface. However, this theory has been challenged, in particular recently by new surface observation, helioseismic inversions, and numerical models of convective dynamos. In this article we discuss another theoretical approach to the formation of sunspots: the negative effective magnetic pressure instability. This is a large-scale instability, in which the total (kinetic plus magnetic) turbulent pressure can be suppressed in the presence of a weak large-scale magnetic field, leading to a converging downflow, which eventually concentrates the magnetic field within it. Numerical simulations of forced stratified turbulence have been able to produce strong super-equipartition flux concentrations, similar to sunspots at the solar surface. In this framework, sunspots would only form close to the surface due to the instability constraints on stratification and rotation. Additionally, we present some ideas from local helioseismology, where we plan to use the Hankel analysis to study the pre-emergence phase of a sunspot and to constrain its deep structure and formation mechanism.

  20. Flows in Sunspot Plumes Detected with SOHO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brynildsen, N.; Maltby, P.; Brekke, P.; Fredvik, T.; Haugan, S. V. H.; Kjeldseth-Moe, O.; Wikstol, O.

    1998-09-01

    In the Letter, ``Flows in Sunspot Plumes Detected with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory'' by N. Brynildsen, P. Maltby, P. Brekke, T. Fredvik, S. V. H. Haugan, O. Kjeldseth-Moe, and Ø. Wikstøl (ApJ, 502, L85 [1998]), the following correction should be made: In the last line on page L86, which reads ``peak line intensity I>=5 are located (1) above the umbra or, '' an ``Ī'' should be inserted so that the revised line reads ``peak line intensity I>=5Ī are located (1) above the umbra or.''

  1. Solar wind drivers of geomagnetic storms during more than four solar cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richardson Ian G.

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Using a classification of the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types: (1 High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun; (2 Slow, interstream solar wind; and (3 Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections (CMEs at the Sun, including interplanetary CMEs and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions, we determine the drivers of geomagnetic storms of various size ranges based on the Kp index and the NOAA “G” criteria since 1964, close to the beginning of the space era, to 2011, encompassing more than four solar cycles (20–23. We also briefly discuss the occurrence of storms since the beginning of the Kp index in 1932, in the minimum before cycle 17. We note that the extended low level of storm activity during the minimum following cycle 23 is without precedent in this 80-year interval. Furthermore, the “typical” numbers of storm days/cycle quoted in the standard NOAA G storm table appear to be significantly higher than those obtained from our analysis, except for the strongest (G5 storms, suggesting that they should be revised downward.

  2. Structure and sources of solar wind in the growing phase of 24th solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slemzin, Vladimir; Goryaev, Farid; Shugay, Julia; Rodkin, Denis; Veselovsky, Igor

    2015-04-01

    We present analysis of the solar wind (SW) structure and its association with coronal sources during the minimum and rising phase of 24th solar cycle (2009-2011). The coronal sources prominent in this period - coronal holes, small areas of open magnetic fields near active regions and transient sources associated with small-scale solar activity have been investigated using EUV solar images and soft X-ray fluxes obtained by the CORONAS-Photon/TESIS/Sphinx, PROBA2/SWAP, Hinode/EIS and AIA/SDO instruments as well as the magnetograms obtained by HMI/SDO. It was found that at solar minimum (2009) velocity and magnetic field strength of high speed wind (HSW) and transient SW from small-scale flares did not differ significantly from those of the background slow speed wind (SSW). The major difference between parameters of different SW components was seen in the ion composition represented by the C6/C5, O7/O6, Fe/O ratios and the mean charge of Fe ions. With growing solar activity, the speed of HSW increased due to transformation of its sources - small-size low-latitude coronal holes into equatorial extensions of large polar holes. At that period, the ion composition of transient SW changed from low-temperature to high-temperature values, which was caused by variation of the source conditions and change of the recombination/ionization rates during passage of the plasma flow through the low corona. However, we conclude that criteria of separation of the SW components based on the ion ratios established earlier by Zhao&Fisk (2009) for higher solar activity are not applicable to the extremely weak beginning of 24th cycle. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement eHeroes (project n° 284461, www.eheroes.eu).

  3. Sources of The Slow Solar wind During the Solar Cycle 23/24 Minimum

    CERN Document Server

    Kilpua, E K J; Karna, N; Wiegelmann, T; Farrugia, C; Yu, W; Andreeova, K

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the characteristics and the sources of the slow (< 450 km/s) solar wind during the four years (2006-2009) of low solar activity between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. We use a comprehensive set of in-situ observations in the near-Earth solar wind (Wind and ACE) and remove the periods when large-scale interplanetary coronal mass ejections were present. The investigated period features significant variations in the global coronal structure, including the frequent presence of low-latitude active regions in 2006-2007, long-lived low- and mid-latitude coronal holes in 2006 - mid-2008 and mostly the quiet Sun in 2009. We examine both Carrington Rotation averages of selected solar plasma, charge state and compositional parameters and distributions of these parameters related to Quiet Sun, Active Region Sun and the Coronal Hole Sun. While some of the investigated parameters (e.g., speed, the C^{+6}/C^{+4} and He/H ratio) show clear variations over our study period and with solar wind source type, some (Fe/...

  4. Solar-Like Cycle in Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars

    CERN Document Server

    Soker, N

    2000-01-01

    I propose that the mechanism behind the formation of concentric semi-periodic shells found in several planetary nebulae (PNs) and proto-PNs, and around one asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star, is a solar-like magnetic activity cycle in the progenitor AGB stars. The time intervals between consecutive ejection events is about 200-1,000 years, which is assumed to be the cycle period (the full magnetic cycle can be twice as long, as is the 22-year period in the sun). The magnetic field has no dynamical effects; it regulates the mass loss rate by the formation of magnetic cool spots. The enhanced magnetic activity at the cycle maximum results in more magnetic cool spots, which facilitate the formation of dust, hence increasing the mass loss rate. The strong magnetic activity implies that the AGB star is spun up by a companion, via a tidal or common envelope interaction. The strong interaction with a stellar companion explains the observations that the concentric semi-periodic shells are found mainly in bipolar PNs.

  5. High-Energy Solar Particle Events in Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Makela, P.; Yashiro, S.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S.; Thakur, N.

    2015-01-01

    The Sun is already in the declining phase of cycle 24, but the paucity of high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) events continues with only two ground level enhancement (GLE) events as of March 31, 2015. In an attempt to understand this, we considered all the large SEP events of cycle 24 that occurred until the end of 2014. We compared the properties of the associated CMEs with those in cycle 23. We found that the CME speeds in the sky plane were similar, but almost all those cycle-24 CMEs were halos. A significant fraction of (16%) of the frontside SEP events were associated with eruptive prominence events. CMEs associated with filament eruption events accelerate slowly and attain peak speeds beyond the typical GLE release heights. When we considered only western hemispheric events that had good connectivity to the CME nose, there were only 8 events that could be considered as GLE candidates. One turned out to be the first GLE event of cycle 24 (2012 May 17). In two events, the CMEs were very fast (>2000 km/s) but they were launched into a tenuous medium (high Alfven speed). In the remaining five events, the speeds were well below the typical GLE CME speed (2000 km/s). Furthermore, the CMEs attained their peak speeds beyond the typical heights where GLE particles are released. We conclude that several factors contribute to the low rate of high-energy SEP events in cycle 24: (i) reduced efficiency of shock acceleration (weak heliospheric magnetic field), (ii) poor latitudinal and longitudinal connectivity), and (iii) variation in local ambient conditions (e.g., high Alfven speed).

  6. The long-term changes in solar meridional circulation as the cause for the long-term changes in the correlation between solar and geomagnetic activity

    CERN Document Server

    Georgieva, K

    2007-01-01

    Since the beginning of the 20th century, the correlation in the 11-year solar cycle between the sunspot number and geomagnetic aa-index has been decreasing, while the lag between the two has been increasing. We show how this can be used as a proxy for the solar meridional circulation, and investigate the long-term changes in the meridional circulation and their role for solar activity and terrestrial climate.

  7. Numerical evaluation of the Kalina cycle for concentrating solar power plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modi, Anish

    of using a Kalina cycle is evaluated with a thermoeconomic optimization with a turbine inlet temperature of 500 C for a central receiver solar power plant with direct vapour generation, and 370 C for a parabolic trough solar power plant with Therminol VP-1 as the solar field heat transfer fluid. No thermal......Concentrating solar power plants use a number of reflecting mirrors to focus and convert the incident solar energy to heat, and a power cycle to convert this heat into electricity. One of the key challenges currently faced by the solar industry is the high cost of electricity production....... These costs may be driven down by developing more cost-effective plant components and improving the system designs. This thesis focuses on the power cycle aspect of the concentrating solar power plants by studying the use a Kalina cycle with ammonia-water mixtures as the cycle working fluid. The potential...

  8. Properties of Magnetic Tongues over a Solar Cycle

    CERN Document Server

    Poisson, M; Fuentes, M López; Mandrini, C H

    2016-01-01

    The photospheric spatial distribution of the main magnetic polarities of bipolar active regions (ARs) presents during their emergence deformations are known as magnetic tongues. They are attributed to the presence of twist in the toroidal magnetic flux-tubes that form the ARs. The aim of this article is to study the twist of newly emerged ARs from the evolution of magnetic tongues observed in photospheric line-of-sight magnetograms. We apply the procedure described by Poisson et al. (2015, Solar Phys. 290, 727) to ARs observed over the full Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24. Our results show that the hemispherical rule obtained using the tongues as a proxy of the twist has a weak sign-dominance (53 % in the southern hemisphere and 58 % in the northern hemisphere). By defining the variation of the tongue angle, we characterize the strength of the magnetic tongues during different phases of the AR emergence. We find that there is a tendency of the tongues to be stronger during the beginning of the em...

  9. The Morphologic Properties of Magnetic networks over the Solar Cycle 23

    CERN Document Server

    Huang, Chong; Zhang, Yin; Tan, Baolin; Li, Gang

    2012-01-01

    The morphologic properties of the magnetic networks during Carrington Rotations (CR) 1955 to 2091 (from 1999 to 2010) have been analyzed by applying the watershed algorithm to magnetograms observed by the Michelson Doppler Interferometer (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft. We find that the average area of magnetic cells on the solar surface at lower latitudes (within +-50 degree) are smaller than those at higher latitudes (beyond +-50 degree). Statistical analysis of these data indicates that the magnetic networks are of fractal in nature, and the average fractal dimension is D_f = 1.253+-0.011. We also find that both the fractal dimension and the size of the magnetic networks are anti-correlated with the sunspot area. This is perhaps because a strong magnetic field can suppress spatially modulated oscillation, compress the boundaries of network cells, leading to smoother cell boundaries. The fractal dimension of the cell deviates that predicted from an isobar of Kolmogoro...

  10. Differential rotation of solar background magnetic fields during the 20th solar cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejna, L.

    1983-11-01

    The study demonstrates the possibility of using the autocorrelation analysis for studies of the differential rotation of the solar background magnetic fields. For that purpose the time series obtained from the synoptic Hα charts published by McIntosh were subjected to an analysis. On their basis the distribution of the synodic angular velocity in time - during the cycle - and in the heliographic latitude - for |φ| smaller than 60° - was determined. After that the parameters A and B from the relation for differential rotation ω = A+B sin2φ could be determined, both for the entire cycle and for individual Carrington rotations.

  11. Solar Irradiance from 165 to 400 nm in 2008 and UV Variations in Three Spectral Bands During Solar Cycle 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meftah, M.; Bolsée, D.; Damé, L.; Hauchecorne, A.; Pereira, N.; Irbah, A.; Bekki, S.; Cessateur, G.; Foujols, T.; Thiéblemont, R.

    2016-12-01

    Accurate measurements of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) and its temporal variations are of primary interest to better understand solar mechanisms, and the links between solar variability and Earth's atmosphere and climate. The SOLar SPECtrum (SOLSPEC) instrument of the Solar Monitoring Observatory (SOLAR) payload onboard the International Space Station (ISS) has been built to carry out SSI measurements from 165 to 3088 nm. We focus here on the ultraviolet (UV) part of the measured solar spectrum (wavelengths less than 400 nm) because the UV part is potentially important for understanding the solar forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. We present here SOLAR/SOLSPEC UV data obtained since 2008, and their variations in three spectral bands during Solar Cycle 24. They are compared with previously reported UV measurements and model reconstructions, and differences are discussed.

  12. Cosmic and solar radiation exposure for aircrew over a solar cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desormeaux, M. [Royal Military College of Canada, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Kingston, Ontario (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    Over the past decade, extensive research has been performed at the Royal Military College of Canada to determine the radiation exposure of aircrew, and to assess the recommendation of the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) that aircrew should be considered as occupationally exposed workers. This research confirmed the ICRP findings and demonstrated that galactic cosmic radiation could be effectively predicted, which has led to the development of a semi-empirical computer model capable of predicting route doses over an entire solar cycle. Following ongoing validation, model improvement has been performed for short-haul and low-altitude flights, as well as flights done during solar minimum conditions. Furthermore, a model has also been proposed to account for the additional radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPEs). (author)

  13. Cosmic and solar radiation exposure for aircrew over a solar cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desormeaux, M. [Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario (Canada)

    2003-08-01

    Over the past decade, extensive research has been performed at the Royal Military College of Canada to determine the radiation exposure of aircrew, and to assess the recommendation of the International Commission for Radiological Protection (ICRP) that aircrew should be considered as occupationally exposed workers. This research confirmed the ICRP findings and demonstrated that galactic cosmic radiation could be effectively predicted, which has led to the development of a semi-empirical computer model capable of predicting route doses over an entire solar cycle. Following ongoing validation, model improvement has been performed for short-haul and low-altitude flights, as well as flights done during solar minimum conditions. Furthermore, a model has also been proposed to account for the additional radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPEs). (author)

  14. Solar fuel processing efficiency for ceria redox cycling using alternative oxygen partial pressure reduction methods

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Meng; Haussener, Sophia

    2015-01-01

    Solar-driven non-stoichiometric thermochemical redox cycling of ceria for the conversion of solar energy into fuels shows promise in achieving high solar-to-fuel efficiency. This efficiency is significantly affected by the operating conditions, e.g. redox temperatures, reduction and oxidation pressures, solar irradiation concentration, or heat recovery effectiveness. We present a thermodynamic analysis of five redox cycle designs to investigate the effects of working conditions on the fuel pr...

  15. The revised Brussels-Locarno Sunspot Number (1981-2015)

    CERN Document Server

    Clette, Frédéric; Cagnotti, Marco; Cortesi, Sergio; Bulling, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    In 1981, the production of the international Sunspot Number moved from the Z\\"{u}rich Observatory to the Royal Observatory of Belgium, marking a very important transition in the history of the Sunspot Number. Those recent decades are particularly important for linking recent modern solar indices and fluxes and the past Sunspot Number series. However, large variations have been recently identified in the scale of the Sunspot Number between 1981 and the present. Here, we reconstruct a new average Sunspot Number series $S_N$ using long-duration stations between 1981 and 2015. We also extend this reconstruction using long-time series from 35 stations over 1945-2015, which includes the 1981 transition. In both reconstructions, we also derive a parallel Group Number series $G_N$. Our results confirm the variable trends of the Locarno pilot station. We also verify the scale of the resulting 1981-2015 correction factor relative to the preceding period 1945--1980. By comparing the new $S_N$ and $G_N$ series, we find t...

  16. Analysis of Low Temperature