Predicting Maximum Sunspot Number in Solar Cycle 24 Nipa J Bhatt ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Key words. Sunspot number—precursor prediction technique—geo- magnetic activity index aa. 1. Introduction. Predictions of solar and geomagnetic activities are important for various purposes, including the operation of low-earth orbiting satellites, operation of power grids on. Earth, and satellite communication systems.

Latitudinal migration of sunspots based on the ESAI database

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Juan; Li, Fu-Yu; Feng, Wen

2018-01-01

The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator, which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone, is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation. The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past. In this study, ESAI’s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear. It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function. In addition, the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses, providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models. Indeed, the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period, and it is located at higher latitudinal position, giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.

NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF SOLAR CYCLE 24

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilcik, A.; Anderson, C. N. K.; Ye, H.; Sugihara, G.; Rozelot, J. P.; Ozguc, A.

2009-01-01

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and has even been correlated speculatively with changes in global weather patterns. This paper investigates trends in sunspot activity, using new techniques for decadal-scale prediction of the present solar cycle (cycle 24). First, Hurst exponent H analysis is used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of the putative dynamics; then the Sugihara-May algorithm is used to predict the ascension time and the maximum intensity of the current sunspot cycle. Here we report H = 0.86 for the complete sunspot number data set (1700-2007) and H = 0.88 for the reliable sunspot data set (1848-2007). Using the Sugihara-May algorithm analysis, we forecast that cycle 24 will reach its maximum in 2012 December at approximately 87 sunspot units.

Nature's third cycle a story of sunspots

CERN Document Server

Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

2015-01-01

The cycle of day and night and the cycle of seasons are two familiar natural cycles around which many human activities are organized. But is there a third natural cycle of importance for us humans? On 13 March 1989, six million people in Canada went without electricity for many hours: a large explosion on the sun was discovered as the cause of this blackout. Such explosions occur above sunspots, dark features on the surface of the Sun that have been observed through telescopes since the time of Galileo. The number of sunspots has been found to wax and wane over a period of 11 years. Although this cycle was discovered less than two centuries ago, it is becoming increasingly important for us as human society becomes more dependent on technology. For nearly a century after its discovery, the cause of the sunspot cycle remained completely shrouded in mystery. The 1908 discovery of strong magnetic fields in sunspots made it clear that the 11-year cycle is the magnetic cycle of the sun. It is only during the last ...

On proton events of different solar activity cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattarov, I.; Sherdanov, Ch.; Sattarov, B.

1997-01-01

In solar activity cycle N21 and N22 the latitude distribution of the proton large flares and sunspot groups is being studied. It was found that higher proton activity of cycle N22 is connected with its higher latitude sunspot activity (author)

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1986-01-01

Using the dynamo theory method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22 - Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, K. H.; Hedin, A. E.

1984-01-01

Using the 'dynamo theory' method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 + or - 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 + or - 1 year. Concommitantly, F(10.7) radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 + or - 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 + or - 50 K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400 km is expected to reach 4.3 x 10 to the -15th gm/cu cm + or - 25 percent.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Woods, T. N. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Hong, Sunhak, E-mail: gchoe@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-10

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.; Hong, Sunhak

2016-01-01

It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

What's So Peculiar about the Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum?

Science.gov (United States)

Sheeley, N. R., Jr.

2010-06-01

Traditionally, solar physicists become anxious around solar minimum, as they await the high-latitude sunspot groups of the new cycle. Now, we are in an extended sunspot minimum with conditions not seen in recent memory, and interest in the sunspot cycle has increased again. In this paper, I will describe some of the characteristics of the current solar minimum, including its great depth, its extended duration, its weak polar magnetic fields, and its small amount of open flux. Flux transport simulations suggest that these characteristics are a consequence of temporal variations of the Sun's large-scale meridional circulation.

Prediction of solar cycle 24 using fourier series analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalid, M.; Sultana, M.; Zaidi, F.

2014-01-01

Predicting the behavior of solar activity has become very significant. It is due to its influence on Earth and the surrounding environment. Apt predictions of the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will aid in the estimation of the several results of Space Weather. In the past, many prediction procedures have been used and have been successful to various degrees in the field of solar activity forecast. In this study, Solar cycle 24 is forecasted by the Fourier series method. Comparative analysis has been made by auto regressive integrated moving averages method. From sources, January 2008 was the minimum preceding solar cycle 24, the amplitude and shape of solar cycle 24 is approximate on monthly number of sunspots. This forecast framework approximates a mean solar cycle 24, with the maximum appearing during May 2014 (+- 8 months), with most sunspot of 98 +- 10. Solar cycle 24 will be ending in June 2020 (+- 7 months). The difference between two consecutive peak values of solar cycles (i.e. solar cycle 23 and 24 ) is 165 months(+- 6 months). (author)

SOLAR VARIABILITY FROM 240 TO 1750 nm IN TERMS OF FACULAE BRIGHTENING AND SUNSPOT DARKENING FROM SCIAMACHY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pagaran, J.; Weber, M.; Burrows, J.

2009-01-01

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, and IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.

Evolution of the Sunspot Number and Solar Wind B Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Cliver, Edward W.; Herbst, Konstantin

2018-03-01

The past two decades have witnessed significant changes in our knowledge of long-term solar and solar wind activity. The sunspot number time series (1700-present) developed by Rudolf Wolf during the second half of the 19th century was revised and extended by the group sunspot number series (1610-1995) of Hoyt and Schatten during the 1990s. The group sunspot number is significantly lower than the Wolf series before ˜1885. An effort from 2011-2015 to understand and remove differences between these two series via a series of workshops had the unintended consequence of prompting several alternative constructions of the sunspot number. Thus it has been necessary to expand and extend the sunspot number reconciliation process. On the solar wind side, after a decade of controversy, an ISSI International Team used geomagnetic and sunspot data to obtain a high-confidence time series of the solar wind magnetic field strength (B) from 1750-present that can be compared with two independent long-term (> ˜600 year) series of annual B-values based on cosmogenic nuclides. In this paper, we trace the twists and turns leading to our current understanding of long-term solar and solar wind activity.

The solar activity cycle physical causes and consequences

CERN Document Server

Hudson, Hugh; Petrovay, Kristóf; Steiger, Rudolf

2015-01-01

A collection of papers edited by four experts in the field, this book sets out to describe the way solar activity is manifested in observations of the solar interior, the photosphere, the chromosphere, the corona and the heliosphere. The 11-year solar activity cycle, more generally known as the sunspot cycle, is a fundamental property of the Sun.  This phenomenon is the generation and evolution of magnetic fields in the Sun’s convection zone, the photosphere.  It is only by the careful enumeration and description of the phenomena and their variations that one can clarify their interdependences.   The sunspot cycle has been tracked back about four centuries, and it has been recognized that to make this data set a really useful tool in understanding how the activity cycle works and how it can be predicted, a very careful and detailed effort is needed to generate sunspot numbers.  This book deals with this topic, together with several others that present related phenomena that all indicate the physical pr...

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Brugnara

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU. The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010, which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

Relationship between geomagnetic classes’ activity phases and their occurrence during the sunspot cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric Ouattara

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Four well known geomagnetic classes of activity such as quiet days activity, fluctuating activity, recurrent activity
and shock activity time occurrences have been determined not only by using time profile of sunspot number
Rz but also by using aa index values.
We show that recurrent wind stream activity and fluctuating activity occur in opposite phase and slow solar wind
activity during minimum phase and shock activity at the maximum phase.
It emerges from this study that fluctuating activity precedes the sunspot cycle by π/2 and the latter also precedes
recurrent activity by π/2. Thus in the majority the activities do not happen at random; the sunspot cycle starts
with quiet days activity, continues with fluctuating activity and during its maximum phase arrives shock activity.
The descending phase is characterized by the manifestation of recurrent wind stream activity.

SIMULATION STUDY OF HEMISPHERIC PHASE-ASYMMETRY IN THE SOLAR CYCLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shukuya, D.; Kusano, K., E-mail: kusano@nagoya-u.jp [Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, Aichi 4648601 (Japan)

2017-01-20

Observations of the Sun suggest that solar activities systematically create north–south hemispheric asymmetries. For instance, the hemisphere in which sunspot activity is more active tends to switch after the early half of each solar cycle. Svalgaard and Kamide recently pointed out that the time gaps of polar field reversal between the northern and southern hemispheres are simply consequences of the asymmetry of sunspot activity. However, the mechanism underlying the asymmetric feature in solar cycle activity is not yet well understood. In this paper, in order to explain the cause of the asymmetry from the theoretical point of view, we investigate the relationship between the dipole- and quadrupole-type components of the magnetic field in the solar cycle using the mean-field theory based on the flux transport dynamo model. As a result, we found that there are two different attractors of the solar cycle, in which either the north or the south polar field is first reversed, and that the flux transport dynamo model explains well the phase-asymmetry of sunspot activity and the polar field reversal without any ad hoc source of asymmetry.

Annual reconstruction of the solar cycle from atmospheric 14C variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, J.O.

1990-01-01

Initially, the rise and fall components of the 11-year solar sunspot cycle are approximated by separate least-squares polynomials for four cycle classifications, which are determined by the magnitude of the average of the annual sunspot numbers per cycle. Following a method is formulated to generate detailed reconstruction of the annual variation of a solar cycle based on this cycle average, and the results obtained for cycles -4 through to 21 are compared with the annual Zurich values. This procedure is then employed to establish annual sunspot numbers using published average cycle values obtained from atmospheric carbon 14 variations, which have been derived from the chemical analysis of tree ring sections. The reconstructed sequences are correlated with the observed cycle values and with tree ring width index chronologies which exhibit a significant 11-year periodicity. It is anticipated that the long carbon 14 records and parallel dendrochronological data could be employed to obtain a more detailed portrayal of previous periods of strong solar activity than that given by current estimates based on historical records. 17 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs

Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21-23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V.

2014-01-01

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, María; Balmaceda, Laura A.

2013-01-01

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.

SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Dasi-Espuig, Maria [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Sonnensystemforschung, D-37191 Katlenburg-Lindau (Germany); Balmaceda, Laura A., E-mail: amunoz@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: edeluca@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: dasi@mps.mpg.de, E-mail: lbalmaceda@icate-conicet.gob.ar [Institute for Astronomical, Terrestrial and Space Sciences (ICATE-CONICET), San Juan (Argentina)

2013-04-20

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.

Understanding Solar Cycle Variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M., E-mail: cameron@mps.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany)

2017-07-10

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to a generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach.

A New Revision of the Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record Incorporates Recent Research into Proxies of Sunspot Darkening and the Sunspot Number Record

Science.gov (United States)

Coddington, O.; Lean, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Baranyi, T.; Snow, M. A.; Kopp, G.; Richard, E. C.; Lindholm, C.

2017-12-01

An operational climate data record (CDR) of total and spectral solar irradiance became available in November 2015 as part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information Climate Data Record Program. The data record, which is updated quarterly, is available from 1610 to the present as yearly-average values and from 1882 to the present as monthly- and daily-averages, with associated time and wavelength-dependent uncertainties. It was developed jointly by the University of Colorado at Boulder's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and the Naval Research Laboratory, and, together with the source code and supporting documentation, is available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/. In the Solar Irradiance CDR, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) are estimated from models that determine the changes from quiet Sun conditions arising from bright faculae and dark sunspots on the solar disk. The models are constructed using linear regression of proxies of solar sunspot and facular features with the approximately decade-long irradiance observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment. A new revision of this data record was recently released in an ongoing effort to reduce solar irradiance uncertainties in two ways. First, the sunspot darkening proxy was revised using a new cross calibration of the current sunspot region observations made by the Solar Observing Optical Network with the historical records of the Royal Greenwich Observatory. This implementation affects modeled irradiances from 1882 - 1978. Second, the impact of a revised record of sunspot number by the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations center on modeled irradiances was assessed. This implementation provides two different reconstructions of historical, yearly-averaged irradiances from 1610-1881. Additionally, we show new, preliminary results that demonstrate improvements in modeled TSI by using

Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

Science.gov (United States)

Baranovski, A. L.; Clette, F.; Nollau, V.

2008-02-01

In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters - the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

The Sunspot Number and beyond : reconstructing detailed solar information over centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Lefevre, L.

2014-12-01

With four centuries of solar evolution, the International Sunspot Number (SSN) forms the longest solar time series currently available. It provides an essential reference for understanding and quantifying how the solar output has varied over decades and centuries and thus for assessing the variations of the main natural forcing on the Earth climate. Because of its importance, this unique time-series must be closely monitored for any possible biases and drifts. Here, we report about recent disagreements between solar indices, for example the sunspot sumber and the 10.7cm radio flux. Recent analyses indicate that while part of this divergence may be due to a calibration drift in the SSN, it also results from an intrinsic change in the global magnetic parameters of sunspots and solar active regions, suggesting a possible transition to a new activity regime. Going beyond the SSN series, in the framework of the TOSCA (www.cost-tosca.eu/) and SOLID (projects.pmodwrc.ch/solid/) projects, we produced a survey of all existing catalogs providing detailed sunspot information (Lefevre & Clette, 2014:10.1007/s11207-012-0184-5) and we also located different primary solar images and drawing collections that can be exploitable to complement the existing catalogs. These are first steps towards the construction of a multi-parametric time series of multiple sunspot and sunspot group properties over more than a century, allowing to reconstruct and extend the current 1-D SSN series. By bringing new spatial, morphological and evolutionary information, such a data set should bring major advances for the modeling of the solar dynamo and solar irradiance. We will present here the current status of this work. The preliminary version catalog now extends over the last 150 years. It makes use of data from DPD (http://fenyi.solarobs.unideb.hu/DPD/index.html), from the Uccle Solar Equatorial Table (USET:http://sidc.oma.be/uset/) operated by the Royal Obeservatory of Belgium, the Greenwich

Response of Solar Irradiance to Sunspot-area Variations

Science.gov (United States)

Dudok de Wit, T.; Kopp, G.; Shapiro, A.; Witzke, V.; Kretzschmar, M.

2018-02-01

One of the important open questions in solar irradiance studies is whether long-term variability (i.e., on timescales of years and beyond) can be reconstructed by means of models that describe short-term variability (i.e., days) using solar proxies as inputs. Preminger & Walton showed that the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and proxies of magnetic-flux emergence, such as the daily sunspot area, can be described in the framework of linear system theory by means of the impulse response. We significantly refine that empirical model by removing spurious solar-rotational effects and by including an additional term that captures long-term variations. Our results show that long-term variability cannot be reconstructed from the short-term response of the spectral irradiance, which questions the extension of solar proxy models to these timescales. In addition, we find that the solar response is nonlinear in a way that cannot be corrected simply by applying a rescaling to a sunspot area.

The Solar Cycle and, How Do We Know What We Know?

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Mitzi

2013-01-01

Through the use of observations, mathematics, mathematical tools (such as graphs), inference, testing, and prediction we have gathered evidence that there are sunspots, a solar cycle, and have begun to understand more about our star, the Sun. We are making progress in understanding the cause of the solar cycle. We expect solar cycle 24 to peak soon. Cycle 24 will be the smallest cycle in 100 years.

CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 22-YEAR SOLAR MAGNETIC CYCLE AND THE 22-YEAR QUASICYCLE IN THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu Weizheng; Zhao Jinping; Huang Fei; Deng Shenggui

2012-01-01

According to the variation pattern of the solar magnetic field polarity and its relation to the relative sunspot number, we established the time series of the sunspot magnetic field polarity index and analyzed the strength and polarity cycle characteristics of the solar magnetic field. The analysis showed the existence of a cycle with about a 22-year periodicity in the strength and polarity of the solar magnetic field, which proved the Hale proposition that the 11-year sunspot cycle is one-half of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. By analyzing the atmospheric temperature field, we found that the troposphere and the stratosphere in the middle latitude of both the northern and southern hemispheres exhibited a common 22-year quasicycle in the atmospheric temperature, which is believed to be attributable to the 22-year solar magnetic cycle.

Nonlinear solar cycle forecasting: theory and perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. L. Baranovski

2008-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper we develop a modern approach to solar cycle forecasting, based on the mathematical theory of nonlinear dynamics. We start from the design of a static curve fitting model for the experimental yearly sunspot number series, over a time scale of 306 years, starting from year 1700 and we establish a least-squares optimal pulse shape of a solar cycle. The cycle-to-cycle evolution of the parameters of the cycle shape displays different patterns, such as a Gleissberg cycle and a strong anomaly in the cycle evolution during the Dalton minimum. In a second step, we extract a chaotic mapping for the successive values of one of the key model parameters – the rate of the exponential growth-decrease of the solar activity during the n-th cycle. We examine piece-wise linear techniques for the approximation of the derived mapping and we provide its probabilistic analysis: calculation of the invariant distribution and autocorrelation function. We find analytical relationships for the sunspot maxima and minima, as well as their occurrence times, as functions of chaotic values of the above parameter. Based on a Lyapunov spectrum analysis of the embedded mapping, we finally establish a horizon of predictability for the method, which allows us to give the most probable forecasting of the upcoming solar cycle 24, with an expected peak height of 93±21 occurring in 2011/2012.

Photometric measurements of solar irradiance variations due to sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, G.A.; Herzog, A.D.; Laico, D.E.; Lawrence, J.K.; Templer, M.S.

1989-01-01

A photometric telescope constructed to obtain photometric sunspot areas and deficits on a daily basis is described. Data from this Cartesian full disk telescope (CFDT) are analyzed with attention given to the period between June 4 and June 17, 1985 because of the availability of overlapping sunspot area and irradiance deficit data from high-resolution digital spectroheliograms made with the San Fernando Observatory 28 cm vacuum solar telescope and spectroheliograph. The CFDT sunspot deficits suggest a substantial irradiance contribution from faculae and active region plage. 23 refs

Empirical solar/stellar cycle simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Santos Ângela R. G.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available As a result of the magnetic cycle, the properties of the solar oscillations vary periodically. With the recent discovery of manifestations of activity cycles in the seismic data of other stars, the understanding of the different contributions to such variations becomes even more important. With this in mind, we built an empirical parameterised model able to reproduce the properties of the sunspot cycle. The resulting simulations can be used to estimate the magnetic-induced frequency shifts.

INTERFERENCE FRINGES OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES AROUND SUNSPOTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chou, Dean-Yi; Zhao Hui; Yang, Ming-Hsu; Liang, Zhi-Chao, E-mail: chou@phys.nthu.edu.tw [Physics Department, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

2012-10-20

Solar acoustic waves are scattered by a sunspot due to the interaction between the acoustic waves and the sunspot. The sunspot, excited by the incident wave, generates the scattered wave. The scattered wave is added to the incident wave to form the total wave around the sunspot. The interference fringes between the scattered wave and the incident wave are visible in the intensity of the total wave because the coherent time of the incident wave is of the order of a wave period. The strength of the interference fringes anti-correlates with the width of temporal spectra of the incident wave. The separation between neighboring fringes increases with the incident wavelength and the sunspot size. The strength of the fringes increases with the radial order n of the incident wave from n = 0 to n = 2, and then decreases from n = 2 to n = 5. The interference fringes play a role analogous to holograms in optics. This study suggests the feasibility of using the interference fringes to reconstruct the scattered wavefields of the sunspot, although the quality of the reconstructed wavefields is sensitive to the noise and errors in the interference fringes.

CORRELATION BETWEEN THE 22-YEAR SOLAR MAGNETIC CYCLE AND THE 22-YEAR QUASICYCLE IN THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qu Weizheng; Zhao Jinping; Huang Fei; Deng Shenggui, E-mail: quweizhe@ouc.edu.cn [College of Environment Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 (China)

2012-07-15

According to the variation pattern of the solar magnetic field polarity and its relation to the relative sunspot number, we established the time series of the sunspot magnetic field polarity index and analyzed the strength and polarity cycle characteristics of the solar magnetic field. The analysis showed the existence of a cycle with about a 22-year periodicity in the strength and polarity of the solar magnetic field, which proved the Hale proposition that the 11-year sunspot cycle is one-half of the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. By analyzing the atmospheric temperature field, we found that the troposphere and the stratosphere in the middle latitude of both the northern and southern hemispheres exhibited a common 22-year quasicycle in the atmospheric temperature, which is believed to be attributable to the 22-year solar magnetic cycle.

Long-term Modulation of Cosmic Ray Intensity in relation to Sunspot ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

it should be more closely connected with cosmic ray modulation than with other solar characteristics (sunspot numbers or coronal emission intensity). The intensity of galactic cosmic rays varies inversely with sunspot numbers, having their maximum intensity at the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle (Forbush 1954, 1958) ...

On the relation between activity-related frequency shifts and the sunspot distribution over the solar cycle 23

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Santos Ângela R. G.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The activity-related variations in the solar acoustic frequencies have been known for 30 years. However, the importance of the different contributions is still not well established. With this in mind, we developed an empirical model to estimate the spot-induced frequency shifts, which takes into account the sunspot properties, such as area and latitude. The comparison between the model frequency shifts obtained from the daily sunspot records and those observed suggests that the contribution from a stochastic component to the total frequency shifts is about 30%. The remaining 70% is related to a global, long-term variation. We also propose a new observable to investigate the short-and mid-term variations of the frequency shifts, which is insensitive to the long-term variations contained in the data. On the shortest time scales the variations in the frequency shifts are strongly correlated with the variations in the total area covered by sunspots. However, a significant loss of correlation is still found, which cannot be fully explained by ignoring the invisible side of the Sun when accounting for the total sunspot area. We also verify that the times when the frequency shifts and the sunspot areas do not vary in a similar way tend to coincide with the times of the maximum amplitude of the quasi-biennial variations found in the seismic data.

Association of Plages with Sunspots: A Multi-Wavelength Study Using Kodaikanal Ca ii K and Greenwich Sunspot Area Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mandal, Sudip; Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Banerjee, Dipankar, E-mail: sudip@iiap.res.in [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore 560034 (India)

2017-02-01

Plages are the magnetically active chromospheric structures prominently visible in the Ca ii K line (3933.67 Å). A plage may or may not be associated with a sunspot, which is a magnetic structure visible in the solar photosphere. In this study we explore this aspect of association of plages with sunspots using the newly digitized Kodaikanal Ca ii K plage data and the Greenwich sunspot area data. Instead of using the plage index or fractional plage area and its comparison with the sunspot number, we use, to our knowledge for the first time, the individual plage areas and compare them with the sunspot area time series. Our analysis shows that these two structures, formed in two different layers, are highly correlated with each other on a timescale comparable to the solar cycle. The area and the latitudinal distributions of plages are also similar to those of sunspots. Different area thresholdings on the “butterfly diagram” reveal that plages of area ≥4 arcmin{sup 2} are mostly associated with a sunspot in the photosphere. Apart from this, we found that the cyclic properties change when plages of different sizes are considered separately. These results may help us to better understand the generation and evolution of the magnetic structures in different layers of the solar atmosphere.

THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 23: AS DEEP AS IT COULD BE?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Longcope, Dana W. [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Senkpeil, Ryan R. [Department of Physics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Tlatov, Andrey G. [Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of the Pulkovo Observatory, Kislovodsk 357700 (Russian Federation); Pevtsov, Alexei A. [National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM 88349 (United States); Balmaceda, Laura A. [Institute for Astronomical, Terrestrial and Space Sciences (ICATE-CONICET), San Juan (Argentina); DeLuca, Edward E. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Martens, Petrus C. H., E-mail: munoz@solar.physics.montana.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 (United States)

2015-05-01

In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our approach assumes that the statistical properties of sunspots are completely determined by the strength of the underlying large-scale field and have no additional time dependencies. We use the amplitude of the cycle at any given moment (something we refer to as activity level) as a proxy for the strength of this deep-seated magnetic field. We find that the sunspot size distribution is composed of two populations: one population of groups and active regions and a second population of pores and ephemeral regions. When fits are performed at periods of different activity level, only the statistical properties of the former population, the active regions, are found to vary. Finally, we study the relative contribution of each component (small-scale versus large-scale) to solar magnetism. We find that when hemispheres are treated separately, almost every one of the past 12 solar minima reaches a point where the main contribution to magnetism comes from the small-scale component. However, due to asymmetries in cycle phase, this state is very rarely reached by both hemispheres at the same time. From this we infer that even though each hemisphere did reach the magnetic baseline, from a heliospheric point of view the minimum of cycle 23 was not as deep as it could have been.

A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Hathaway, David H.

2012-01-01

The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2012. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

Planetary tides during the Maunder sunspot minimum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smythe, C.M.; Eddy, J.A.

1977-01-01

Sun-centered planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials are here constructed for the AD1645 to 1715 period of sunspot absence, referred to as the 'Maunder Minimum'. These are found to be effectively indistinguishable from patterns of conjunctions and power spectra of tidal potential in the present era of a well established 11 year sunspot cycle. This places a new and difficult restraint on any tidal theory of sunspot formation. Problems arise in any direct gravitational theory due to the apparently insufficient forces and tidal heights involved. Proponents of the tidal hypothesis usually revert to trigger mechanisms, which are difficult to criticise or test by observation. Any tidal theory rests on the evidence of continued sunspot periodicity and the substantiation of a prolonged period of solar anomaly in the historical past. The 'Maunder Minimum' was the most drastic change in the behaviour of solar activity in the last 300 years; sunspots virtually disappeared for a 70 year period and the 11 year cycle was probably absent. During that time, however, the nine planets were all in their orbits, and planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials were indistinguishable from those of the present era, in which the 11 year cycle is well established. This provides good evidence against the tidal theory. The pattern of planetary tidal forces during the Maunder Minimum was reconstructed to investigate the possibility that the multiple planet forces somehow fortuitously cancelled at the time, that is that the positions of the slower moving planets in the 17th and early 18th centuries were such that conjunctions and tidal potentials were at the time reduced in number and force. There was no striking dissimilarity between the time of the Maunder Minimum and any period investigated. The failure of planetary conjunction patterns to reflect the drastic drop in sunspots during the Maunder Minimum casts doubt on the tidal theory of solar activity, but a more quantitative test

Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, S. [Department of Earth Science Education, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, 61186 (Korea, Republic of); Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr [Department of Astronomy, Space Science and Geology, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, 34134 (Korea, Republic of)

2017-05-01

The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cycles and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.

Improvement of the photometric sunspot index and changes of the disk-integrated sunspot contrast with time

Science.gov (United States)

Froehlich, Claus; Pap, Judit M.; Hudson, Hugh S.

1994-06-01

The photometric sunspot index (PSI) was developed to study the effects of sunspots on solar irradiance. It is calculated from the sunspot data published in the Solar-Geophysical Data catalog. It has been shown that the former PSI models overestimate the effect of dark sunspots on solar irradiance; furthermore results of direct sunspot photometry indicate that the contrast of spots depends on their area. An improved PSI calculation is presented; it takes into account the area dependence of the contrast and calculates `true' daily means for each observation using the differential rotation of the spots. Moreover, the observations are screened for outliers which improves the homogeneity of the data set substantially, at least for the period after December 1981 when NOAA started to report data from a few instead of one to two stations. A detailed description of the method is provided. The correlation between the newly calculated PSI and total solar irradiance is studied for different phases of the solar cycles 21 and 22 using bi-variate spectral analysis. The results can be used as a `calibration' of PSI in terms of gain, the factor by which PSI has to be multiplied to yield the observed irradiance change. The factor changes with time from about 0.6 in 1980 to 1.1 in 1990. This unexpected result cannot be interpreted by a change of the contrast relative to the quiet Sun (as it is normally defined and determined by direct photometry) but rather as a change of the contrast between the spots and their surrounding as seen in total irradiance (integrated over the solar disk). This may partly be explained by a change in the ratio between the areas of the spots and the surrounding faculae.

North–South Asymmetry in Rieger-type Periodicity during Solar Cycles 19–23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gurgenashvili, Eka; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil; Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis; Dikpati, Mausumi; McIntosh, Scott W.

2017-01-01

Rieger-type periodicity has been detected in different activity indices over many solar cycles. It was recently shown that the periodicity correlates with solar activity having a shorter period during stronger cycles. Solar activity level is generally asymmetric between northern and southern hemispheres, which could suggest the presence of a similar behavior in the Rieger-type periodicity. We analyze the sunspot area/number and the total magnetic flux data for northern and southern hemispheres during solar cycles 19–23, which had remarkable north–south asymmetry. Using wavelet analysis of sunspot area and number during the north-dominated cycles (19–20), we obtained the periodicity of 160–165 days in the stronger northern hemisphere and 180–190 days in the weaker southern hemisphere. On the other hand, south-dominated cycles (21–23) display the periodicity of 155–160 days in the stronger southern hemisphere and 175–188 days in the weaker northern hemisphere. Therefore, the Rieger-type periodicity has the north–south asymmetry in sunspot area/number data during solar cycles with strong hemispheric asymmetry. We suggest that the periodicity is caused by magnetic Rossby waves in the internal dynamo layer. Using the dispersion relation of magnetic Rossby waves and observed Rieger periodicity, we estimated the magnetic field strength in the layer as 45–49 kG in more active hemispheres (north during cycles 19–20 and south during cycles 21–23) and 33–40 kG in weaker hemispheres. The estimated difference in the hemispheric field strength is around 10 kG, which provides a challenge for dynamo models. Total magnetic flux data during cycles 20–23 reveals no clear north–south asymmetry, which needs to be explained in the future.

North–South Asymmetry in Rieger-type Periodicity during Solar Cycles 19–23

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gurgenashvili, Eka; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil [Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory at Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia (United States); Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis [Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, E-07122, Palma de Mallorca (Spain); Dikpati, Mausumi; McIntosh, Scott W., E-mail: Eka.gurgenashvili.1@iliauni.edu.ge [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States)

2017-08-20

Rieger-type periodicity has been detected in different activity indices over many solar cycles. It was recently shown that the periodicity correlates with solar activity having a shorter period during stronger cycles. Solar activity level is generally asymmetric between northern and southern hemispheres, which could suggest the presence of a similar behavior in the Rieger-type periodicity. We analyze the sunspot area/number and the total magnetic flux data for northern and southern hemispheres during solar cycles 19–23, which had remarkable north–south asymmetry. Using wavelet analysis of sunspot area and number during the north-dominated cycles (19–20), we obtained the periodicity of 160–165 days in the stronger northern hemisphere and 180–190 days in the weaker southern hemisphere. On the other hand, south-dominated cycles (21–23) display the periodicity of 155–160 days in the stronger southern hemisphere and 175–188 days in the weaker northern hemisphere. Therefore, the Rieger-type periodicity has the north–south asymmetry in sunspot area/number data during solar cycles with strong hemispheric asymmetry. We suggest that the periodicity is caused by magnetic Rossby waves in the internal dynamo layer. Using the dispersion relation of magnetic Rossby waves and observed Rieger periodicity, we estimated the magnetic field strength in the layer as 45–49 kG in more active hemispheres (north during cycles 19–20 and south during cycles 21–23) and 33–40 kG in weaker hemispheres. The estimated difference in the hemispheric field strength is around 10 kG, which provides a challenge for dynamo models. Total magnetic flux data during cycles 20–23 reveals no clear north–south asymmetry, which needs to be explained in the future.

Sunspots sketches during the solar eclipses of 9th January and 29th December of 1777 in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Domínguez-Castro, Fernando; Gallego, María Cruz; Vaquero, José Manuel

2017-06-01

Two sunspot observations recorded by the Mexican Felipe de Zúñiga y Ontiveros have been revealed from a manuscript. One sunspot group was recorded on 9th January 1777 and four sunspot groups on 29th December 1777. Both records were taken during the observation of solar eclipses from Mexico City and their description also included sketches of the solar disk with sunspots. The sunspot group corresponding to 9th January was also observed by Erasmus Lievog. The observation on 29th December 1777 is the only record corresponding to this date.

On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani, E-mail: dhani@as.itb.ac.id [Astronomy Research Division and Bosscha Observatory, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia); Arif, Johan [Geology Research Division, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia); Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi [Astronomy Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology, Ganesha 10, Bandung, Indonesia 40132 (Indonesia)

2015-09-30

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth’s climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth’s global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

On the possible relations between solar activities and global seismicity in the solar cycle 20 to 23

Science.gov (United States)

Herdiwijaya, Dhani; Arif, Johan; Nurzaman, Muhamad Zamzam; Astuti, Isna Kusuma Dewi

2015-09-01

Solar activities consist of high energetic particle streams, electromagnetic radiation, magnetic and orbital gravitational forces. The well-know solar activity main indicator is the existence of sunspot which has mean variation in 11 years, named by solar cycle, allow for the above fluctuations. Solar activities are also related to the space weather affecting all planetary atmospheric variability, moreover to the Earth's climate variability. Large extreme space and geophysical events (high magnitude earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms, etc.) are hazards for humankind, infrastructure, economies, technology and the activities of civilization. With a growing world population, and with modern reliance on delicate technological systems, human society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazardous events. The big question arises to the relation between solar forcing energy to the Earth's global seismic activities. Estimates are needed for the long term occurrence-rate probabilities of these extreme natural hazardous events. We studied connectivity from yearly seismic activities that refer to and sunspot number within the solar cycle 20 to 23 of year 1960 to 2013 (53 years). We found clear evidences that in general high magnitude earthquake events and their depth were related to the low solar activity.

An essay on sunspots and solar flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akasofu, S.-I.

1984-01-01

The presently prevailing theories of sunspots and solar flares rely on the hypothetical presence of magnetic flux tubes beneath the photosphere and the two subsequent hypotheses, their emergence above the photosphere and explosive magnetic reconnection, converting magnetic energy carried by the flux tubes for solar flare energy. In this paper, attention is paid to the fact that there are large-scale magnetic fields which divide the photosphere into positive and negative (line-of-sight) polarity regions and that they are likely to be more fundamental than sunspot fields, as emphasized most recently by McIntosh. A new phenomenological model of the sunspot pair formation is then constructed by considering an amplification process of these large-scale fields near their boundaries by shear flows, including localized vortex motions. The amplification results from a dynamo process associated with such vortex flows and the associated convergence flow in the large-scale fields. This dynamo process generates also some of the familiar ''force-free'' fields or the ''sheared'' magnetic fields in which the magnetic field-aligned currents are essential. Upward field-aligned currents generated by the dynamo process are carried by downward streaming electrons which are expected to be accelerated by an electric potential structure; a similar structure is responsible for accelerating auroral electrons in the magnetosphere. Depending on the magnetic field configuration and the shear flows, the current-carrying electrons precipitate into different geometrical patterns, causing circular flares, umbral flares, two-ribbon flares, etc. Thus, it is suggested that ''low temperature flares'' are directly driven by the photospheric dynamo process. (author)

Wings of the butterfly: Sunspot groups for 1826-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Leussu, R.; Usoskin, I. G.; Senthamizh Pavai, V.; Diercke, A.; Arlt, R.; Denker, C.; Mursula, K.

2017-03-01

The spatio-temporal evolution of sunspot activity, the so-called Maunder butterfly diagram, has been continously available since 1874 using data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory, extended by SOON network data after 1976. Here we present a new extended butterfly diagram of sunspot group occurrence since 1826, using the recently digitized data from Schwabe (1826-1867) and Spörer (1866-1880). The wings of the diagram are separated using a recently developed method based on an analysis of long gaps in sunspot group occurrence in different latitude bands. We define characteristic latitudes, corresponding to the start, end, and the largest extent of the wings (the F, L, and H latitudes). The H latitudes (30°-45°) are highly significantly correlated with the strength of the wings (quantified by the total sum of the monthly numbers of sunspot groups). The F latitudes (20°-30°) depict a weak tendency, especially in the southern hemisphere, to follow the wing strength. The L latitudes (2°-10°) show no clear relation to the wing strength. Overall, stronger cycle wings tend to start at higher latitudes and have a greater wing extent. A strong (5-6)-cycle periodic oscillation is found in the start and end times of the wings and in the overlap and gaps between successive wings of one hemisphere. While the average wing overlap is zero in the southern hemisphere, it is two to three months in the north. A marginally significant oscillation of about ten solar cycles is found in the asymmetry of the L latitudes. The new long database of butterfly wings provides new observational constraints to solar dynamo models that discuss the spatio-temporal distribution of sunspot occurrence over the solar cycle and longer. Digital data for Fig. 1 are available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/599/A131

The magnetic nature of umbra-penumbra boundary in sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Jurčák, J.; Rezaei, R.; González, N. Bello; Schlichenmaier, R.; Vomlel, J.

2018-03-01

Context. Sunspots are the longest-known manifestation of solar activity, and their magnetic nature has been known for more than a century. Despite this, the boundary between umbrae and penumbrae, the two fundamental sunspot regions, has hitherto been solely defined by an intensity threshold. Aim. Here, we aim at studying the magnetic nature of umbra-penumbra boundaries in sunspots of different sizes, morphologies, evolutionary stages, and phases of the solar cycle. Methods: We used a sample of 88 scans of the Hinode/SOT spectropolarimeter to infer the magnetic field properties in at the umbral boundaries. We defined these umbra-penumbra boundaries by an intensity threshold and performed a statistical analysis of the magnetic field properties on these boundaries. Results: We statistically prove that the umbra-penumbra boundary in stable sunspots is characterised by an invariant value of the vertical magnetic field component: the vertical component of the magnetic field strength does not depend on the umbra size, its morphology, and phase of the solar cycle. With the statistical Bayesian inference, we find that the strength of the vertical magnetic field component is, with a likelihood of 99%, in the range of 1849-1885 G with the most probable value of 1867 G. In contrast, the magnetic field strength and inclination averaged along individual boundaries are found to be dependent on the umbral size: the larger the umbra, the stronger and more horizontal the magnetic field at its boundary. Conclusions: The umbra and penumbra of sunspots are separated by a boundary that has hitherto been defined by an intensity threshold. We now unveil the empirical law of the magnetic nature of the umbra-penumbra boundary in stable sunspots: it is an invariant vertical component of the magnetic field.

Solar-cycle period-amplitude relation as evidence of hysteresis of the solar-cycle nonlinear magnetic oscillation and the long-term (55 year) cyclic modulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshimura, H.

1979-01-01

A new dynamical model of the solar cycle has predicted that the cycle should have a hysteretic nature: the behavior of each 11 year cycle should depend on previous cycles. In the light of this new understanding of the dynamical mechanism of the solar cycle, Waldmeier's (hypothetical) law was examined as a yet unexplained characteristic of the cycle by studying the observed sunspot frequency curve. Contrary to this hypothetical law, however, it was found that sunspot cycle curves did not form a single-parameter family characterized by the maximum amplitude of the cycle. The evolutionary trajectories in period-amplitude phase space verified the hysteretic nature of the observed cycle and revealed long-term (55 year instead of the previously claimed 80 year) periodic modulations, called here 55 year grand cycles. Each 55 year grand cycle forms a loop in the phase space, and the characteristics of each 11 year cycle depend on its position in the ascending or descending phase of the grand cycle. This new law was analyzed by the nonlinear multiple-period dynamo oscillation model which has predicted the hysteretic nature. The era from cycle 11 to cycle 15 turned out to be an anomalous one characterized by alternating amplitudes for odd and even cycles. Cycles 16--20 seem to constitute one grand cycle. If this is true, cycle 21 would be the beginning of another grand maximum and the model predicts that its duration would be short

Empirical mode decomposition and long-range correlation analysis of sunspot time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Yu; Leung, Yee

2010-01-01

Sunspots, which are the best known and most variable features of the solar surface, affect our planet in many ways. The number of sunspots during a period of time is highly variable and arouses strong research interest. When multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is employed to study the fractal properties and long-range correlation of the sunspot series, some spurious crossover points might appear because of the periodic and quasi-periodic trends in the series. However many cycles of solar activities can be reflected by the sunspot time series. The 11-year cycle is perhaps the most famous cycle of the sunspot activity. These cycles pose problems for the investigation of the scaling behavior of sunspot time series. Using different methods to handle the 11-year cycle generally creates totally different results. Using MF-DFA, Movahed and co-workers employed Fourier truncation to deal with the 11-year cycle and found that the series is long-range anti-correlated with a Hurst exponent, H, of about 0.12. However, Hu and co-workers proposed an adaptive detrending method for the MF-DFA and discovered long-range correlation characterized by H≈0.74. In an attempt to get to the bottom of the problem in the present paper, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a data-driven adaptive method, is applied to first extract the components with different dominant frequencies. MF-DFA is then employed to study the long-range correlation of the sunspot time series under the influence of these components. On removing the effects of these periods, the natural long-range correlation of the sunspot time series can be revealed. With the removal of the 11-year cycle, a crossover point located at around 60 months is discovered to be a reasonable point separating two different time scale ranges, H≈0.72 and H≈1.49. And on removing all cycles longer than 11 years, we have H≈0.69 and H≈0.28. The three cycle-removing methods—Fourier truncation, adaptive detrending and the

Will Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Be Weaker than Cycle 24?

Science.gov (United States)

Javaraiah, J.

2017-11-01

The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1 - 24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best cosine fit shows overall properties (periods, maxima, minima, etc.) of Gleissberg cycles, but with large uncertainties. We obtain a pattern of the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle, but there is considerable ambiguity. Using the epochs of violations of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule (G-O rule) and the `tentative inverse G-O rule' of solar cycles during the period 1610 - 2015, and also using the epochs where the orbital angular momentum of the Sun is steeply decreased during the period 1600 - 2099, we infer that Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than Cycle 24. Cycles 25 and 26 will have almost same strength, and their epochs are at the minimum between the current and upcoming Gleissberg cycles. In addition, Cycle 27 is expected to be stronger than Cycle 26 and weaker than Cycle 28, and Cycle 29 is expected to be stronger than both Cycles 28 and 30. The maximum of Cycle 29 is expected to represent the next Gleissberg maximum. Our analysis also suggests a much lower value (30 - 40) for the maximum amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25.

Seasonal, Diurnal, and Solar-Cycle Variations of Electron Density at Two West Africa Equatorial Ionization Anomaly Stations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric Ouattara

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We analyse the variability of foF2 at two West Africa equatorial ionization anomaly stations (Ouagadougou and Dakar during three solar cycles (from cycle 20 to cycle 22, that is, from 1966 to 1998 for Ouagadougou and from 1971 to 1997 for Dakar. We examine the effect of the changing levels of solar extreme ultraviolet radiation with sunspot number. The study shows high correlation between foF2 and sunspot number (Rz. The correlation coefficient decreases from cycle 20 to cycle 21 at both stations. From cycle 21 to cycle 22 it decreases at Ouagadougou station and increases at Dakar station. The best correlation coefficient, 0.990, is obtained for Dakar station during solar cycle 22. The seasonal variation displays equinoctial peaks that are asymmetric between March and September. The percentage deviations of monthly average data from one solar cycle to another display variability with respect to solar cycle phase and show solar ultraviolet radiation variability with solar cycle phase. The diurnal variation shows a noon bite out with a predominant late-afternoon peak except during the maximum phase of the solar cycle. The diurnal Ouagadougou station foF2 data do not show a significant difference between the increasing and decreasing cycle phases, while Dakar station data do show it, particularly for cycle 21. The percentage deviations of diurnal variations from solar-minimum conditions show more ionosphere during solar cycle 21 at both stations for all three of the other phases of the solar cycle. There is no significant variability of ionosphere during increasing and decreasing solar cycle phases at Ouagadougou station, but at Dakar station there is a significant variability of ionosphere during these two solar-cycle phases.

Visual Circular Analysis of 266 Years of Sunspot Counts.

Science.gov (United States)

Buelens, Bart

2016-06-01

Sunspots, colder areas that are visible as dark spots on the surface of the Sun, have been observed for centuries. Their number varies with a period of ∼11 years, a phenomenon closely related to the solar activity cycle. Recently, observation records dating back to 1749 have been reassessed, resulting in the release of a time series of sunspot numbers covering 266 years of observations. This series is analyzed using circular analysis to determine the periodicity of the occurrence of solar maxima. The circular analysis is combined with spiral graphs to provide a single visualization, simultaneously showing the periodicity of the series, the degree to which individual cycle lengths deviate from the average period, and differences in levels reached during the different maxima. This type of visualization of cyclic time series with varying cycle lengths in which significant events occur periodically is broadly applicable. It is aimed particularly at science communication, education, and public outreach.

Investigation of Quasi-periodic Solar Oscillations in Sunspots Based on SOHO/MDI Magnetograms

Science.gov (United States)

Kallunki, J.; Riehokainen, A.

2012-10-01

In this work we study quasi-periodic solar oscillations in sunspots, based on the variation of the amplitude of the magnetic field strength and the variation of the sunspot area. We investigate long-period oscillations between three minutes and ten hours. The magnetic field synoptic maps were obtained from the SOHO/MDI. Wavelet (Morlet), global wavelet spectrum (GWS) and fast Fourier transform (FFT) methods are used in the periodicity analysis at the 95 % significance level. Additionally, the quiet Sun area (QSA) signal and an instrumental effect are discussed. We find several oscillation periods in the sunspots above the 95 % significance level: 3 - 5, 10 - 23, 220 - 240, 340 and 470 minutes, and we also find common oscillation periods (10 - 23 minutes) between the sunspot area variation and that of the magnetic field strength. We discuss possible mechanisms for the obtained results, based on the existing models for sunspot oscillations.

TWO NOVEL PARAMETERS TO EVALUATE THE GLOBAL COMPLEXITY OF THE SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELD AND TRACK THE SOLAR CYCLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, L.; Landi, E. [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Gibson, S. E., E-mail: lzh@umich.edu [NCAR/HAO, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000 (United States)

2013-08-20

Since the unusually prolonged and weak solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 (2008-2010), the sunspot number is smaller and the overall morphology of the Sun's magnetic field is more complicated (i.e., less of a dipole component and more of a tilted current sheet) compared with the same minimum and ascending phases of the previous cycle. Nearly 13 yr after the last solar maximum ({approx}2000), the monthly sunspot number is currently only at half the highest value of the past cycle's maximum, whereas the polar magnetic field of the Sun is reversing (north pole first). These circumstances make it timely to consider alternatives to the sunspot number for tracking the Sun's magnetic cycle and measuring its complexity. In this study, we introduce two novel parameters, the standard deviation (SD) of the latitude of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and the integrated slope (SL) of the HCS, to evaluate the complexity of the Sun's magnetic field and track the solar cycle. SD and SL are obtained from the magnetic synoptic maps calculated by a potential field source surface model. We find that SD and SL are sensitive to the complexity of the HCS: (1) they have low values when the HCS is flat at solar minimum, and high values when the HCS is highly tilted at solar maximum; (2) they respond to the topology of the HCS differently, as a higher SD value indicates that a larger part of the HCS extends to higher latitude, while a higher SL value implies that the HCS is wavier; (3) they are good indicators of magnetically anomalous cycles. Based on the comparison between SD and SL with the normalized sunspot number in the most recent four solar cycles, we find that in 2011 the solar magnetic field had attained a similar complexity as compared to the previous maxima. In addition, in the ascending phase of cycle 24, SD and SL in the northern hemisphere were on the average much greater than in the southern hemisphere, indicating a more tilted and wavier

Size of the coming solar cycle 24 based on Ohl's Precursor Method, final estimate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. P. Kane

2010-07-01

Full Text Available In Ohl's Precursor Method (Ohl, 1966, 1976, the geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is shown to be well correlated with the size (maximum sunspot number Rz(max of the next cycle. For solar cycle 24, Kane (2007a used aa(min=15.5 (12-month running mean, which occurred during March–May of 2006 and made a preliminary estimate Rz(max=124±26 (12-month running mean. However, in the next few months, the aa index first increased and then decreased to a new low value of 14.8 in July 2007. With this new low value, the prediction was Rz(max=117±26 (12-month running mean. However, even this proved a false signal. Since then, the aa values have decreased considerably and the last 12-monthly value is 8.7, centered at May 2009. For solar cycle 24, using aa(min=8.7, the latest prediction is, Rz(max=58.0±25.0.

The Heliosphere through the Solar Activity Cycle

CERN Document Server

Balogh, André; Suess, Steven T

2008-01-01

Understanding how the Sun changes though its 11-year sunspot cycle and how these changes affect the vast space around the Sun – the heliosphere – has been one of the principal objectives of space research since the advent of the space age. This book presents the evolution of the heliosphere through an entire solar activity cycle. The last solar cycle (cycle 23) has been the best observed from both the Earth and from a fleet of spacecraft. Of these, the joint ESA-NASA Ulysses probe has provided continuous observations of the state of the heliosphere since 1990 from a unique vantage point, that of a nearly polar orbit around the Sun. Ulysses’ results affect our understanding of the heliosphere from the interior of the Sun to the interstellar medium - beyond the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Written by scientists closely associated with the Ulysses mission, the book describes and explains the many different aspects of changes in the heliosphere in response to solar activity. In particular, the authors...

Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Louis Zerbo

2013-05-01

Full Text Available On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996–2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s, associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT. We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum.

DISTRIBUTION OF MAGNETIC BIPOLES ON THE SUN OVER THREE SOLAR CYCLES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tlatov, Andrey G.; Vasil'eva, Valerya V.; Pevtsov, Alexei A.

2010-01-01

We employ synoptic full disk longitudinal magnetograms to study latitudinal distribution and orientation (tilt) of magnetic bipoles in the course of sunspot activity during cycles 21, 22, and 23. The data set includes daily observations from the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak (1975-2002) and Michelson Doppler Imager on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (MDI/SOHO, 1996-2009). Bipole pairs were selected on the basis of proximity and flux balance of two neighboring flux elements of opposite polarity. Using the area of the bipoles, we have separated them into small quiet-Sun bipoles (QSBs), ephemeral regions (ERs), and active regions (ARs). We find that in their orientation, ERs and ARs follow Hale-Nicholson polarity rule. As expected, AR tilts follow Joy's law. ERs, however, show significantly larger tilts of opposite sign for a given hemisphere. QSBs are randomly oriented. Unlike ARs, ERs also show a preference in their orientation depending on the polarity of the large-scale magnetic field. These orientation properties may indicate that some ERs may form at or near the photosphere via the random encounter of opposite polarity elements, while others may originate in the convection zone at about the same location as ARs. The combined latitudinal distribution of ERs and ARs exhibits a clear presence of Spoerer's butterfly diagram (equatorward drift in the course of a solar cycle). ERs extend the ARs' 'wing' of the butterfly diagram to higher latitudes. This high latitude extension of ERs suggests an extended solar cycle with the first magnetic elements of the next cycle developing shortly after the maximum of the previous cycle. The polarity orientation and tilt of ERs may suggest the presence of poloidal fields of two configurations (new cycle and old cycle) in the convection zone at the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

COMPARISON OF CHAOTIC AND FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR FACULAE WITH SUNSPOT ACTIVITY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deng, L. H.; Xiang, Y. Y.; Dun, G. T. [Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216 (China); Li, B., E-mail: wooden@escience.cn [Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Physics, Shandong University at Weihai, Weihai 264209 (China)

2016-01-15

The solar magnetic activity is governed by a complex dynamo mechanism and exhibits a nonlinear dissipation behavior in nature. The chaotic and fractal properties of solar time series are of great importance to understanding the solar dynamo actions, especially with regard to the nonlinear dynamo theories. In the present work, several nonlinear analysis approaches are proposed to investigate the nonlinear dynamical behavior of the polar faculae and sunspot activity for the time interval from 1951 August to 1998 December. The following prominent results are found: (1) both the high- and the low-latitude solar activity are governed by a three-dimensional chaotic attractor, and the chaotic behavior of polar faculae is the most complex, followed by that of the sunspot areas, and then the sunspot numbers; (2) both the high- and low-latitude solar activity exhibit a high degree of persistent behavior, and their fractal nature is due to such long-range correlation; (3) the solar magnetic activity cycle is predictable in nature, but the high-accuracy prediction should only be done for short- to mid-term due to its intrinsically dynamical complexity. With the help of the Babcock–Leighton dynamo model, we suggest that the nonlinear coupling of the polar magnetic fields with strong active-region fields exhibits a complex manner, causing the statistical similarities and differences between the polar faculae and the sunspot-related indicators.

Observational Evidence of Shallow Origins for the Magnetic Fields of Solar Cycles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara F. Martin

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Observational evidence for the origin of active region magnetic fields has been sought from published information on extended solar cycles, statistical distributions of active regions and ephemeral regions, helioseismology results, positional relationships to supergranules, and fine-scale magnetic structure of active regions and their sunspots during their growth. Statistical distributions of areas of ephemeral and active regions blend together to reveal a single power law. The shape of the size distribution in latitude of all active regions is independent of time during the solar cycle, yielding further evidence that active regions of all sizes belong to the same population. Elementary bipoles, identified also by other names, appear to be the building blocks of active regions; sunspots form from elementary bipoles and are therefore deduced to develop from the photosphere downward, consistent with helioseismic detection of downflows to 3–4 Mm below sunspots as well as long-observed downflows from chromospheric/coronal arch filaments into sunspots from their earliest appearance. Time-distance helioseismology has been effective in revealing flows related to sunspots to depths of 20 Mm. Ring diagram analysis shows a statistically significant preference for upflows to precede major active region emergence and downflows after flux emergence but both are often observed together or not detected. From deep-focus helioseismic techniques for seeking magnetic flux below the photosphere prior major active regions, there is evidence of acoustic travel-time perturbation signatures rising in the limited range of depths of 42–75 Mm but these have not been verified or found at more shallow depths by helioseismic holographic techniques. The development of active regions from clusters of elementary bipoles appears to be the same irrespective of how much flux an active region eventually develops. This property would be consistent with the magnetic fields of

Are climatological correlations with the Hale double sunspot cycle meaningful

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldberg, R.A.; Herman, J.R.

1975-09-01

A sunspot cycle which may have been subject to a predicted phase reversal between 1800 and 1880 A.D. is discussed. Several climatological parameters normally correlated with this cycle are examined and do not exhibit a corresponding phase reversal during this period. It is proposed that this apparent discrepency can be resolved by suitable observations during the upcoming half decade

A Relationship Between the Solar Rotation and Activity Analysed by Tracing Sunspot Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Ruždjak, Domagoj; Brajša, Roman; Sudar, Davor; Skokić, Ivica; Poljančić Beljan, Ivana

2017-12-01

The sunspot position published in the data bases of the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR), the US Air Force Solar Optical Observing Network and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA), and of the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) in the period 1874 to 2016 were used to calculate yearly values of the solar differential-rotation parameters A and B. These differential-rotation parameters were compared with the solar-activity level. We found that the Sun rotates more differentially at the minimum than at the maximum of activity during the epoch 1977 - 2016. An inverse correlation between equatorial rotation and solar activity was found using the recently revised sunspot number. The secular decrease of the equatorial rotation rate that accompanies the increase in activity stopped in the last part of the twentieth century. It was noted that when a significant peak in equatorial rotation velocity is observed during activity minimum, the next maximum is weaker than the previous one.

Solar irridiance variations and solar activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willson, R.C.

1982-01-01

A mean value for the 1 AU total solar irradiance of 1368.2 W/m 2 and a downward trend of 0.05% per year were derived from measurements by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the Solar Maximum Mission during 1980. Distinct temporary solar irradiance decreases associated with solar activity maxima were observed with a series of nine dips from April to October recurring at fairly regular intervals averaging 24 days. The decreases correlate inversely with sunspot area, 2800-MHz flux, and Zurich sunspot number. Dominant periods common to the irradiance and sunspot area power spectra link the irradiance decreases to sunspot flux deficit in solar active regions. Evidence of significant total irradiance modulation by facular flux excess is cited. A persistent radiative cycle of active regions consistent with the ACRIM irradiance results and the morphology of solar active regions was found. The pattern of regularly recurrent active region maxima between April and October suggests an asymmetry in solar activity generation during this period

DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH FOR FORECAST OF SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kitiashvili, Irina N., E-mail: irina.n.kitiashvili@nasa.gov [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA 94035 (United States)

2016-11-01

Numerous attempts to predict future solar cycles are mostly based on empirical relations derived from observations of previous cycles, and they yield a wide range of predicted strengths and durations of the cycles. Results obtained with current dynamo models also deviate strongly from each other, thus raising questions about criteria to quantify the reliability of such predictions. The primary difficulties in modeling future solar activity are shortcomings of both the dynamo models and observations that do not allow us to determine the current and past states of the global solar magnetic structure and its dynamics. Data assimilation is a relatively new approach to develop physics-based predictions and estimate their uncertainties in situations where the physical properties of a system are not well-known. This paper presents an application of the ensemble Kalman filter method for modeling and prediction of solar cycles through use of a low-order nonlinear dynamo model that includes the essential physics and can describe general properties of the sunspot cycles. Despite the simplicity of this model, the data assimilation approach provides reasonable estimates for the strengths of future solar cycles. In particular, the prediction of Cycle 24 calculated and published in 2008 is so far holding up quite well. In this paper, I will present my first attempt to predict Cycle 25 using the data assimilation approach, and discuss the uncertainties of that prediction.

A PROPOSED PARADIGM FOR SOLAR CYCLE DYNAMICS MEDIATED VIA TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX IN BABCOCK–LEIGHTON-TYPE SOLAR DYNAMOS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu [Department of Physical Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Kolkata (India)

2016-11-20

At present, the Babcock–Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear to be the most promising models for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent upon a single-cell meridional circulation with a deep equatorward component at the base of the Sun’s convection zone. However, recent observations suggest that the meridional flow may in fact be very shallow (confined to the top 10% of the Sun) and more complex than previously thought. Taken together, these observations raise serious concerns on the validity of the flux transport paradigm. By accounting for the turbulent pumping of magnetic flux, as evidenced in magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar convection, we demonstrate that flux transport dynamo models can generate solar-like magnetic cycles even if the meridional flow is shallow. Solar-like periodic reversals are recovered even when meridional circulation is altogether absent. However, in this case, the solar surface magnetic field dynamics does not extend all the way to the polar regions. Very importantly, our results demonstrate that the Parker–Yoshimura sign rule for dynamo wave propagation can be circumvented in Babcock–Leighton dynamo models by the latitudinal component of turbulent pumping, which can generate equatorward propagating sunspot belts in the absence of a deep, equatorward meridional flow. We also show that variations in turbulent pumping coefficients can modulate the solar cycle amplitude and periodicity. Our results suggest the viability of an alternate magnetic flux transport paradigm—mediated via turbulent pumping—for sustaining solar-stellar dynamo action.

A PROPOSED PARADIGM FOR SOLAR CYCLE DYNAMICS MEDIATED VIA TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX IN BABCOCK–LEIGHTON-TYPE SOLAR DYNAMOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hazra, Soumitra; Nandy, Dibyendu

2016-01-01

At present, the Babcock–Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear to be the most promising models for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent upon a single-cell meridional circulation with a deep equatorward component at the base of the Sun’s convection zone. However, recent observations suggest that the meridional flow may in fact be very shallow (confined to the top 10% of the Sun) and more complex than previously thought. Taken together, these observations raise serious concerns on the validity of the flux transport paradigm. By accounting for the turbulent pumping of magnetic flux, as evidenced in magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar convection, we demonstrate that flux transport dynamo models can generate solar-like magnetic cycles even if the meridional flow is shallow. Solar-like periodic reversals are recovered even when meridional circulation is altogether absent. However, in this case, the solar surface magnetic field dynamics does not extend all the way to the polar regions. Very importantly, our results demonstrate that the Parker–Yoshimura sign rule for dynamo wave propagation can be circumvented in Babcock–Leighton dynamo models by the latitudinal component of turbulent pumping, which can generate equatorward propagating sunspot belts in the absence of a deep, equatorward meridional flow. We also show that variations in turbulent pumping coefficients can modulate the solar cycle amplitude and periodicity. Our results suggest the viability of an alternate magnetic flux transport paradigm—mediated via turbulent pumping—for sustaining solar-stellar dynamo action.

RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McClintock, B. H. [University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, 4350 (Australia); Norton, A. A. [HEPL, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA 94305 (United States); Li, J., E-mail: u1049686@umail.usq.edu.au, E-mail: aanorton@stanford.edu, E-mail: jli@igpp.ucla.edu [Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

2014-12-20

Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators.

RE-EXAMINING SUNSPOT TILT ANGLE TO INCLUDE ANTI-HALE STATISTICS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClintock, B. H.; Norton, A. A.; Li, J.

2014-01-01

Sunspot groups and bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) serve as an observational diagnostic of the solar cycle. We use Debrecen Photohelographic Data (DPD) from 1974-2014 that determined sunspot tilt angles from daily white light observations, and data provided by Li and Ulrich that determined sunspot magnetic tilt angle using Mount Wilson magnetograms from 1974-2012. The magnetograms allowed for BMR tilt angles that were anti-Hale in configuration, so tilt values ranged from 0 to 360° rather than the more common ±90°. We explore the visual representation of magnetic tilt angles on a traditional butterfly diagram by plotting the mean area-weighted latitude of umbral activity in each bipolar sunspot group, including tilt information. The large scatter of tilt angles over the course of a single cycle and hemisphere prevents Joy's law from being visually identified in the tilt-butterfly diagram without further binning. The average latitude of anti-Hale regions does not differ from the average latitude of all regions in both hemispheres. The distribution of anti-Hale sunspot tilt angles are broadly distributed between 0 and 360° with a weak preference for east-west alignment 180° from their expected Joy's law angle. The anti-Hale sunspots display a log-normal size distribution similar to that of all sunspots, indicating no preferred size for anti-Hale sunspots. We report that 8.4% ± 0.8% of all bipolar sunspot regions are misclassified as Hale in traditional catalogs. This percentage is slightly higher for groups within 5° of the equator due to the misalignment of the magnetic and heliographic equators

Sunspot Positions and Areas from Observations by Galileo Galilei

Science.gov (United States)

Vokhmyanin, M. V.; Zolotova, N. V.

2018-02-01

Sunspot records in the seventeenth century provide important information on the solar activity before the Maunder minimum, yielding reliable sunspot indices and the solar butterfly diagram. Galilei's letters to Cardinal Francesco Barberini and Marcus Welser contain daily solar observations on 3 - 11 May, 2 June - 8 July, and 19 - 21 August 1612. These historical archives do not provide the time of observation, which results in uncertainty in the sunspot coordinates. To obtain them, we present a method that minimizes the discrepancy between the sunspot latitudes. We provide areas and heliographic coordinates of 82 sunspot groups. In contrast to Sheiner's butterfly diagram, we found only one sunspot group near the Equator. This provides a higher reliability of Galilei's drawings. Large sunspot groups are found to emerge at the same longitude in the northern hemisphere from 3 May to 21 August, which indicates an active longitude.

DYNAMICS IN SUNSPOT UMBRA AS SEEN IN NEW SOLAR TELESCOPE AND INTERFACE REGION IMAGING SPECTROGRAPH DATA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yurchyshyn, V.; Abramenko, V. [Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Big Bear City, CA 92314 (United States); Kilcik, A. [Department of Space Science and Technologies, Akdeniz University, 07058 Antalya (Turkey)

2015-01-10

We analyze sunspot oscillations using Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) slit-jaw and spectral data and narrow-band chromospheric images from the New Solar Telescope (NST) for the main sunspot in NOAA AR 11836. We report that the difference between the shock arrival times as measured by the Mg II k 2796.35 Å and Si IV 1393.76 Å line formation levels changes during the observed period, and peak-to-peak delays may range from 40 s to zero. The intensity of chromospheric shocks also displays long-term (about 20 min) variations. NST's high spatial resolution Hα data allowed us to conclude that, in this sunspot, umbral flashes (UFs) appeared in the form of narrow bright lanes stretched along the light bridges and around clusters of umbral bright points. The time series also suggested that UFs preferred to appear on the sunspot-center side of light bridges, which may indicate the existence of a compact sub-photospheric driver of sunspot oscillations. The sunspot's umbra as seen in the IRIS chromospheric and transition region data appears bright above the locations of light bridges and the areas where the dark umbra is dotted with clusters of umbral dots. Co-spatial and co-temporal data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory showed that the same locations were associated with bright footpoints of coronal loops suggesting that the light bridges may play an important role in heating the coronal sunspot loops. Finally, the power spectra analysis showed that the intensity of chromospheric and transition region oscillations significantly vary across the umbra and with height, suggesting that umbral non-uniformities and the structure of sunspot magnetic fields may play a role in wave propagation and heating of umbral loops.

Predicting the start and maximum amplitude of solar cycle 24 using similar phases and a cycle grouping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jialong; Zong Weiguo; Le Guiming; Zhao Haijuan; Tang Yunqiu; Zhang Yang

2009-01-01

We find that the solar cycles 9, 11, and 20 are similar to cycle 23 in their respective descending phases. Using this similarity and the observed data of smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers (SMSNs) available for the descending phase of cycle 23, we make a date calibration for the average time sequence made of the three descending phases of the three cycles, and predict the start of March or April 2008 for cycle 24. For the three cycles, we also find a linear correlation of the length of the descending phase of a cycle with the difference between the maximum epoch of this cycle and that of its next cycle. Using this relationship along with the known relationship between the rise-time and the maximum amplitude of a slowly rising solar cycle, we predict the maximum SMSN of cycle 24 of 100.2 ± 7.5 to appear during the period from May to October 2012. (letters)

Solar spectral irradiance variability of some chromospheric emission lines through the solar activity cycles 21-23

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Göker Ü.D.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A study of variations of solar spectral irradiance (SSI in the wave-length ranges 121.5 nm-300.5 nm for the period 1981-2009 is presented. We used various data for ultraviolet (UV spectral lines and international sunspot number (ISSN from interactive data centers such as SME (NSSDC, UARS (GDAAC, SORCE (LISIRD and SIDC, respectively. We reduced these data by using the MATLsoftware package. In this respect, we revealed negative correlations of intensities of UV (289.5 nm-300.5 nm spectral lines originating in the solar chromosphere with the ISSN index during the unusually prolonged minimum between the solar activity cycles (SACs 23 and 24. We also compared our results with the variations of solar activity indices obtained by the ground-based telescopes. Therefore, we found that plage regions decrease while facular areas are increasing in SAC 23. However, the decrease in plage regions is seen in small sunspot groups (SGs, contrary to this, these regions in large SGs are comparable to previous SACs or even larger as is also seen in facular areas. Nevertheless, negative correlations between ISSN and SSI data indicate that these variations are in close connection with the classes of sunspots/SGs, faculae and plage regions. Finally, we applied the time series analysis of spectral lines corresponding to the wavelengths 121.5 nm-300.5 nm and made comparisons with the ISSN data. We found an unexpected increase in the 298.5 nm line for the Fe II ion. The variability of Fe II ion 298.5 nm line is in close connection with the facular areas and plage regions, and the sizes of these solar surface indices play an important role for the SSI variability, as well. So, we compared the connection between the sizes of faculae and plage regions, sunspots/SGs, chemical elements and SSI variability. Our future work will be the theoretical study of this connection and developing of a corresponding model.

HEMISPHERIC HELICITY TREND FOR SOLAR CYCLE 24

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao Juan; Zhang Mei

2011-01-01

Using vector magnetograms obtained with the Spectro-polarimeter (SP) on board Hinode satellite, we studied two helicity parameters (local twist and current helicity) of 64 active regions that occurred in the descending phase of solar cycle 23 and the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Our analysis gives the following results. (1) The 34 active regions of the solar cycle 24 follow the so-called hemispheric helicity rule, whereas the 30 active regions of the solar cycle 23 do not. (2) When combining all 64 active regions as one sample, they follow the hemispheric helicity sign rule as in most other observations. (3) Despite the so-far most accurate measurement of vector magnetic field given by SP/Hinode, the rule is still weak with large scatters. (4) The data show evidence of different helicity signs between strong and weak fields, confirming previous result from a large sample of ground-based observations. (5) With two example sunspots we show that the helicity parameters change sign from the inner umbra to the outer penumbra, where the sign of penumbra agrees with the sign of the active region as a whole. From these results, we speculate that both the Σ-effect (turbulent convection) and the dynamo have contributed in the generation of helicity, whereas in both cases turbulence in the convection zone has played a significant role.

On Solar Granulations, Limb Darkening, and Sunspots: Brief Insights in Remembrance of Father Angelo Secchi

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Robitaille P.-M.

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Father Angelo Secchi used the existence of solar granulation as a central line of rea- soning when he advanced that the Sun was a gaseous body with a photosphere contain- ing incandescent particulate matter (Secchi A. Sulla Struttura della Fotosfera Solare. Bullettino Meteorologico dell’Osservatorio del Collegio Romano , 30 November 1864, v.3(11, 1–3. Secchi saw the granules as condensed matter emitting the photospheric spectrum, while the darkened intergranular lanes conveyed the presence of a gaseous solar interior. Secchi also considered the nature of sunspots and limb darkening. In the context of modern solar models, opacity arguments currently account for the emis- sive properties of the photosphere. Optical depth is thought to explain limb darkening. Both temperature variations and magnetic fields are invoked to justify the weakened emissivities of sunspots, even though the presence of static magnetic fields in materi- als is not usually associated with modified emissivity. Conversely, within the context of a liquid metallic hydrogen solar model, the appearance of granules, limb darkening, and sunspots can be elegantly understood through the varying directional emissivity of condensed matter. A single explanation is applicable to all three phenomena. Granular contrast can be directly associated with the generation of limb darkening. Depending on size, granules can be analyzed by considering Kolmogoroff’s formulations and B ́ enard convection, respectively, both of which were observed using incompressible liquids, not gases. Granules follow the 2-dimensional space filling laws of Aboav-Weiner and Lewis. Their adherence to these structural laws provides supportive evidence that the granular surface of the Sun represents elements which can only be constructed from condensed matter. A gaseous Sun cannot be confined to a 2-dimensional framework. Mesogranules, supergranules, and giant cells constitute additional entities which further

Effect of solar flare ans sunspot numbers on the intensity of 5577A line in the night airglow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kundu, N.; Ghosh, S.N.

1981-01-01

The effects of solar flare and sunspot number on the intensity of 5577 A line emission are presented. The time lag between the occurrence of a flare and the enhancement of 5577 A line intensity is determined by observing the intensity of the line on three successive nights- the night preceding the flare and the two nights following it. The velocity of the solar corpuscles is then calculated. The value obtained at Allahabad (2400 Km/sec) is in agreement with the De Jager's prediction for explosive flare. Day-to-day analyses of the observations taken at Allahabad exhibit high correlation of the intensity of 5577 A line emission with sunspot number. Also, correlation is found for the intensity of 5577 A with the change in sunspot number (DELTA R) from the day preceding the night of observation to the day following it. The intensity appears to vary with the magnetic field produced by the sunspot and not with the spot area. (author)

Long-term periodicities in the sunspot record

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, R.M.

1984-07-01

Sunspot records are systematically maintained, with the knowledge that an 11 year average period exists since about 1850. Thus, the sunspot record of highest quality and considered to be the most reliable is that of cycle eight through the present. On the basis of cycles 8 through 20, various combinations of sine curves were used to approximate the observed R sub MAX values (where R sub MAX is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum). It is found that a three component sinusoidal function, having an 11 cycle and a 2 cycle variation on a 90 cycle periodicity, yields computed R sub MAX values which fit, reasonably well, observed R sub MAX values for the modern sunspot cycles. Extrapolation of the empirical functions forward in time allows for the projection of values of R sub MAX for cycles 21 and 22. For cycle 21, the function projects a value of 157.3, very close to the actually observed value of 164.5. For cycle 22, the function projects a value of about 107. Linear regressions applied to cycle 22 indicate a long-period cycle (cycle duration 132 months). An extensive bibliography on techniques used to estimate the time dependent behavior of sunspot cycles is provided

POLAR NETWORK INDEX AS A MAGNETIC PROXY FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE STUDIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Priyal, Muthu; Banerjee, Dipankar; Ravindra, B.; Singh, Jagdev; Karak, Bidya Binay; Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

2014-01-01

The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k × 4k CCD and have higher resolution (∼0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical data sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century

POLAR NETWORK INDEX AS A MAGNETIC PROXY FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE STUDIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Priyal, Muthu; Banerjee, Dipankar; Ravindra, B.; Singh, Jagdev [Indian Institute of Astrophysics,Koramangala, Bengaluru 560034 (India); Karak, Bidya Binay [Nordita, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University (Sweden); Muñoz-Jaramillo, Andrés [Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Choudhuri, Arnab Rai, E-mail: mpriya@iiap.res.in, E-mail: dipu@iiap.res.in [Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (India)

2014-09-20

The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k × 4k CCD and have higher resolution (∼0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical data sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century.

REGULARITY OF THE NORTH–SOUTH ASYMMETRY OF SOLAR ACTIVITY: REVISITED

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, J.; Feng, W.

2015-01-01

Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices (ESAI) extended the Greenwich series of sunspot area from the year 1874 back to 1821. The ESAI's yearly sunspot area in the northern and southern hemispheres from 1821 to 2013 is utilized to investigate characteristics of the north–south hemispherical asymmetry of sunspot activity. Periodical behavior of about 12 solar cycles is also confirmed from the ESAI data set to exist in dominant hemispheres, linear regression lines of yearly asymmetry values, and cumulative counts of yearly sunspot areas in the hemispheres for solar cycles. The period is also inferred to appear in both the cumulative difference in the yearly sunspot areas in the hemispheres over the entire time interval and in its statistical Student's t-test. The hemispherical bias of sunspot activity should be regarded as an impossible stochastic phenomenon over a long time period

Towards a first detailed reconstruction of sunspot information over the last 150 years

Science.gov (United States)

Lefevre, Laure; Clette, Frédéric

2013-04-01

With four centuries of solar evolution, the International Sunspot Number (SSN) forms the longest solar time series currently available. It provides an essential reference for understanding and quantifying how the solar output has varied over decades and centuries and thus for assessing the variations of the main natural forcing on the Earth climate. For such a quantitative use, this unique time-series must be closely monitored for any possible biases and drifts. This is the main objective of the Sunspot Workshops organized jointly by the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) since 2010. Here, we will report about some recent outcomes of past workshops, like diagnostics of scaling errors and their proposed corrections, or the recent disagreement between the sunspot sumber and other solar indices like the 10.7cm radio flux. Our most recent analyses indicate that while part of this divergence may be due to a calibration drift in the SSN, it also results from an intrinsic change in the global magnetic parameters of sunspots and solar active regions, suggesting a possible transition to a new activity regime. Going beyond the SSN series, in the framework of the SOTERIA, TOSCA and SOLID projects, we produced a survey of all existing catalogs providing detailed sunspot information and we also located different primary solar images and drawing collections that can be exploitable to complement the existing catalogs (COMESEP project). These are first steps towards the construction of a multi-parametric time series of multiple sunspot group properties over at least the last 150 years, allowing to reconstruct and extend the current 1-D SSN series. By bringing new spatial, morphological and evolutionary information, such a data set should bring major advances for the modeling of the solar dynamo and solar irradiance. We will present here the current status of this work. The catalog now extends over the last 3 cycles (Lefevre & Clette 2011

Witnessing Solar Rejuvenation

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Susanna

2015-09-01

At the end of last year, the Suns large-scale magnetic field suddenly strengthened, reaching its highest value in over two decades. Here, Neil Sheeley and Yi-Ming Wang (both of the Naval Research Laboratory) propose an explanation for why this happened and what it predicts for the next solar cycle.Magnetic StrengtheningUntil midway through 2014, solar cycle 24 the current solar cycle was remarkably quiet. Even at its peak, it averaged only 79 sunspots per year, compared to maximums of up to 190 in recent cycles. Thus it was rather surprising when, toward the end of 2014, the Suns large-scale magnetic field underwent a sudden rejuvenation, with its mean field leaping up to its highest values since 1991 and causing unprecedentedly large numbers of coronal loops to collapse inward.Yet in spite of the increase we observed in the Suns open flux (the magnetic flux leaving the Suns atmosphere, measured from Earth), there was not a significant increase in solar activity, as indicated by sunspot number and the rate of coronal mass ejections. This means that the number of sources of magnetic flux didnt increase so Sheeley and Wang conclude that flux must instead have been emerging from those sources in a more efficient way! But how?Aligned ActivityWSO open flux and the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (measures of the magnetic flux leaving the Suns photosphere and heliosphere, respectively), compared to sunspot number (in units of 100 sunspots). A sudden increase in flux is visible after the peak of each of the last four sunspot cycles. Click for a larger view! [Sheeley Wang 2015]The authors show that the active regions on the solar surface in late 2014 lined up in such a way that the emerging flux was enhanced, forming a strong equatorial dipole field that accounts for the sudden rejuvenation observed.Interestingly, this rejuvenation of the Suns open flux wasnt just a one-time thing; similar bursts have occurred shortly after the peak of every sunspot

On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

Science.gov (United States)

Love, Jeffrey J.

2013-08-01

We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is "statistically significant." On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are "insignificant." Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

The Complexity of Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2017-08-01

How far in advance can the sunspot number be predicted with any degree of confidence? Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Statistical and timeseries analyses of the sunspot number are often used to predict solar activity. These methods have not been completely successful as the solar dynamo changes over time and one cycle's sunspots are not a faithful predictor of the next cycle's activity. In some ways, using these techniques is similar to asking whether the stock market can be predicted. It has been shown that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) can be more accurately predicted during periods when it obeys certain statistical properties than at other times. The Hurst exponent is one such way to partition the data. Another measure of the complexity of a timeseries is the fractal dimension. We can use these measures of complexity to compare the sunspot number with other solar and geomagnetic indices. Our concentration is on how trends are removed by the various techniques, either internally or externally. Comparisons of the statistical properties of the various solar indices may guide us in understanding how the dynamo manifests in the various indices and the Sun.

A solar cycle of spacecraft anomalies due to internal charging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. L. Wrenn

2002-07-01

Full Text Available It is important to appreciate how the morphology of internal charging of spacecraft systems, due to penetrating electrons, differs from that of the more common surface charging, due to electrons with lower energy. A specific and recurrent anomaly on a geostationary communication satellite has been tracked for ten years so that solar cycle and seasonal dependencies can be clearly established. Concurrent measurements of sunspot number, solar wind speed and 2-day >2 MeV electron fluence are presented to highlight pertinent space weather relationships, and the importance of understanding the complex particle interaction processes involved.Key words. Magnetospheric physics (energetic particles; trapped; solar wind – magnetosphere interactions – space plasma physics (spacecraft sheaths, wakes, charging

MAXIMUM CORONAL MASS EJECTION SPEED AS AN INDICATOR OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V. B.; Abramenko, V.; Goode, P. R.; Gopalswamy, N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2011-01-01

We investigate the relationship between the monthly averaged maximal speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), international sunspot number (ISSN), and the geomagnetic Dst and Ap indices covering the 1996-2008 time interval (solar cycle 23). Our new findings are as follows. (1) There is a noteworthy relationship between monthly averaged maximum CME speeds and sunspot numbers, Ap and Dst indices. Various peculiarities in the monthly Dst index are correlated better with the fine structures in the CME speed profile than that in the ISSN data. (2) Unlike the sunspot numbers, the CME speed index does not exhibit a double peak maximum. Instead, the CME speed profile peaks during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Similar to the Ap index, both CME speed and the Dst indices lag behind the sunspot numbers by several months. (3) The CME number shows a double peak similar to that seen in the sunspot numbers. The CME occurrence rate remained very high even near the minimum of the solar cycle 23, when both the sunspot number and the CME average maximum speed were reaching their minimum values. (4) A well-defined peak of the Ap index between 2002 May and 2004 August was co-temporal with the excess of the mid-latitude coronal holes during solar cycle 23. The above findings suggest that the CME speed index may be a useful indicator of both solar and geomagnetic activities. It may have advantages over the sunspot numbers, because it better reflects the intensity of Earth-directed solar eruptions.

EVOLUTION OF THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN HELIUM ABUNDANCE, MINOR ION CHARGE STATE, AND SOLAR WIND SPEED OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasper, J. C.; Stevens, M. L.; Korreck, K. E.; Maruca, B. A.; Kiefer, K. K.; Schwadron, N. A.; Lepri, S. T.

2012-01-01

The changing relationships between solar wind speed, helium abundance, and minor ion charge state are examined over solar cycle 23. Observations of the abundance of helium relative to hydrogen (A He ≡ 100 × n He /n H ) by the Wind spacecraft are used to examine the dependence of A He on solar wind speed and solar activity between 1994 and 2010. This work updates an earlier study of A He from 1994 to 2004 to include the recent extreme solar minimum and broadly confirms our previous result that A He in slow wind is strongly correlated with sunspot number, reaching its lowest values in each solar minima. During the last minimum, as sunspot numbers reached their lowest levels in recent history, A He continued to decrease, falling to half the levels observed in slow wind during the previous minimum and, for the first time observed, decreasing even in the fastest solar wind. We have also extended our previous analysis by adding measurements of the mean carbon and oxygen charge states observed with the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft since 1998. We find that as solar activity decreased, the mean charge states of oxygen and carbon for solar wind of a given speed also fell, implying that the wind was formed in cooler regions in the corona during the recent solar minimum. The physical processes in the coronal responsible for establishing the mean charge state and speed of the solar wind have evolved with solar activity and time.

HELIOSEISMOLOGY OF A REALISTIC MAGNETOCONVECTIVE SUNSPOT SIMULATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braun, D. C.; Birch, A. C.; Rempel, M.; Duvall, T. L. Jr.

2012-01-01

We compare helioseismic travel-time shifts measured from a realistic magnetoconvective sunspot simulation using both helioseismic holography and time-distance helioseismology, and measured from real sunspots observed with the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We find remarkable similarities in the travel-time shifts measured between the methodologies applied and between the simulated and real sunspots. Forward modeling of the travel-time shifts using either Born or ray approximation kernels and the sound-speed perturbations present in the simulation indicates major disagreements with the measured travel-time shifts. These findings do not substantially change with the application of a correction for the reduction of wave amplitudes in the simulated and real sunspots. Overall, our findings demonstrate the need for new methods for inferring the subsurface structure of sunspots through helioseismic inversions.

Featured Image: Bright Dots in a Sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Susanna

2018-03-01

This image of a sunspot, located in in NOAA AR 12227, was captured in December 2014 by the 0.5-meter Solar Optical Telescope on board the Hinode spacecraft. This image was processed by a team of scientists led by Rahul Yadav (Udaipur Solar Observatory, Physical Research Laboratory Dewali, India) in order to examine the properties of umbral dots: transient, bright features observed in the umbral region (the central, darkest part) of a sunspot. By exploring these dots, Yadav and collaborators learned how their properties relate to the large-scale properties of the sunspots in which they form for instance, how do the number, intensities, or filling factors of dots relate to the size of a sunspots umbra? To find out more about the authors results, check out the article below.Sunspot in NOAA AR 11921. Left: umbralpenumbral boundary. Center: the isolated umbra from the sunspot. Right: The umbra with locations of umbral dots indicated by yellow plus signs. [Adapted from Yadav et al. 2018]CitationRahul Yadav et al 2018 ApJ 855 8. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/aaaeba

Occurrences of flares with type II and IV radio events in interacting sunspot groups in the course of revolutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klimes, J.; Krivsky, L.

1984-01-01

Using data from 11-year solar cycle No. 20, it was found that flares with type II radio bursts are more than twice as frequent and flares with type IV bursts nearly twice as frequent in sunspot groups which developed close to each other or which merged in the course of revolutions than in isolated sunspot groups. With both types the occurrence of these flares is concentrated in the revolution of the so-called sunspot group interaction (their approximation, merging). (author)

THE SUN'S SMALL-SCALE MAGNETIC ELEMENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jin, C. L.; Wang, J. X.; Song, Q.; Zhao, H.

2011-01-01

With the unique database from the Michelson Doppler Imager on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in an interval embodying solar cycle 23, the cyclic behavior of solar small-scale magnetic elements is studied. More than 13 million small-scale magnetic elements are selected, and the following results are found. (1) The quiet regions dominated the Sun's magnetic flux for about 8 years in the 12.25 year duration of cycle 23. They contributed (0.94-1.44) x10 23 Mx flux to the Sun from the solar minimum to maximum. The monthly average magnetic flux of the quiet regions is 1.12 times that of the active regions in the cycle. (2) The ratio of quiet region flux to that of the total Sun equally characterizes the course of a solar cycle. The 6 month running average flux ratio of the quiet regions was larger than 90.0% for 28 continuous months from July 2007 to October 2009, which very well characterizes the grand solar minima of cycles 23-24. (3) From the small to the large end of the flux spectrum, the variations of numbers and total flux of the network elements show no correlation, anti-correlation, and correlation with sunspots, respectively. The anti-correlated elements, covering the flux of (2.9-32.0)x10 18 Mx, occupy 77.2% of the total element number and 37.4% of the quiet-Sun flux. These results provide insight into the reason for anti-correlations of small-scale magnetic activity during the solar cycle.

Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum: Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mihalov, J.D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A.J.; Smith, E.J.

1990-01-01

The solar wind speeds observed in the outer heliosphere (20 to 40 AU heliocentric distance, approximately) by Pioneers 10 an 11, and at a heliocentric distance of 0.7 AU by the Pioneer Venus spacecraft, reveal a complex set of changes in the years near the recent sunspot minimum, 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations made from the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft during the same epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and (by implication) the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet (or with heliomagnetic latitude), and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum. The authors confirm here that this basic organization of the solar wind speed persists in the outer heliosphere with an orientation of the neutral sheet consistent with that inferred at a heliocentric distance of a few solar radii, from the coronal observations

Association of Supergranule Mean Scales with Solar Cycle Strengths and Total Solar Irradiance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mandal, Sudip; Chatterjee, Subhamoy; Banerjee, Dipankar, E-mail: sudip@iiap.res.in [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore 560034 (India)

2017-07-20

We analyze the long-term behavior of the supergranule scale parameter, in active regions (ARs) and quiet regions (QRs), using the Kodaikanal digitized data archive. This database provides century-long daily full disk observations of the Sun in Ca ii K wavelengths. In this paper, we study the distributions of the supergranular scales, over the whole data duration, which show identical shape in these two regimes. We found that the AR mean scale values are always higher than that of the QR for every solar cycle. The mean scale values are highly correlated with the sunspot number cycle amplitude and also with total solar irradiance (TSI) variations. Such a correlation establishes the cycle-wise mean scale as a potential calibrator for the historical data reconstructions. We also see an upward trend in the mean scales, as has already been reported in TSI. This may provide new input for climate forcing models. These results also give us insight into the different evolutionary scenarios of the supergranules in the presence of strong (AR) and weak (QR) magnetic fields.

MEASUREMENTS OF THE ABSORPTION AND SCATTERING CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE INTERACTION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES WITH SUNSPOTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Hui; Chou, Dean-Yi

2016-01-01

The solar acoustic waves are modified by the interaction with sunspots. The interaction can be treated as a scattering problem: an incident wave propagating toward a sunspot is scattered by the sunspot into different modes. The absorption cross section and scattering cross section are two important parameters in the scattering problem. In this study, we use the wavefunction of the scattered wave, measured with a deconvolution method, to compute the absorption cross section σ ab and the scattering cross section σ sc for the radial order n = 0–5 for two sunspots, NOAA 11084 and NOAA 11092. In the computation of the cross sections, the random noise and dissipation in the measured acoustic power are corrected. For both σ ab and σ sc , the value of NOAA 11092 is greater than that of NOAA 11084, but their overall n dependence is similar: decreasing with n . The ratio of σ ab of NOAA 11092 to that of NOAA 11084 approximately equals the ratio of sunspot radii for all n , while the ratio of σ sc of the two sunspots is greater than the ratio of sunspot radii and increases with n . This suggests that σ ab is approximately proportional to the sunspot radius, while the dependence of σ sc on radius is faster than the linear increase.

MEASUREMENTS OF THE ABSORPTION AND SCATTERING CROSS SECTIONS FOR THE INTERACTION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES WITH SUNSPOTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Hui [National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 200012 (China); Chou, Dean-Yi, E-mail: chou@phys.nthu.edu.tw [Physics Department, National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

2016-05-01

The solar acoustic waves are modified by the interaction with sunspots. The interaction can be treated as a scattering problem: an incident wave propagating toward a sunspot is scattered by the sunspot into different modes. The absorption cross section and scattering cross section are two important parameters in the scattering problem. In this study, we use the wavefunction of the scattered wave, measured with a deconvolution method, to compute the absorption cross section σ {sub ab} and the scattering cross section σ {sub sc} for the radial order n = 0–5 for two sunspots, NOAA 11084 and NOAA 11092. In the computation of the cross sections, the random noise and dissipation in the measured acoustic power are corrected. For both σ {sub ab} and σ {sub sc}, the value of NOAA 11092 is greater than that of NOAA 11084, but their overall n dependence is similar: decreasing with n . The ratio of σ {sub ab} of NOAA 11092 to that of NOAA 11084 approximately equals the ratio of sunspot radii for all n , while the ratio of σ {sub sc} of the two sunspots is greater than the ratio of sunspot radii and increases with n . This suggests that σ {sub ab} is approximately proportional to the sunspot radius, while the dependence of σ {sub sc} on radius is faster than the linear increase.

A solar cycle of spacecraft anomalies due to internal charging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. L. Wrenn

Full Text Available It is important to appreciate how the morphology of internal charging of spacecraft systems, due to penetrating electrons, differs from that of the more common surface charging, due to electrons with lower energy. A specific and recurrent anomaly on a geostationary communication satellite has been tracked for ten years so that solar cycle and seasonal dependencies can be clearly established. Concurrent measurements of sunspot number, solar wind speed and 2-day >2 MeV electron fluence are presented to highlight pertinent space weather relationships, and the importance of understanding the complex particle interaction processes involved.

Key words. Magnetospheric physics (energetic particles; trapped; solar wind – magnetosphere interactions – space plasma physics (spacecraft sheaths, wakes, charging

Sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Priest, E.R.

1982-01-01

The existence of sunspots has been known since ancient times, but it was only at the beginning of this century that they were found to be the sites of very strong magnetic fields, and it was realised that they represent the places where huge magnetic flux tubes burst through the solar surface. A theoretical understanding of sunspots has had to await the development of magnetohydrodynamics; however, even now, there is some controversy about answers to fundamental questions, such as: why is a sunspot cool, what is its equilibrium structure and how is it formed. Other topics that are discussed in the present chapter include magnetoconvection and the process of magnetic buoyancy whereby a flux tube deep within the Sun tends to rise towards the surface because it is lighter than its surroundings. Outside active regions the magnetic flux is not spread out uniformly to a weak field of a few Gauss, but instead it is mainly concentrated at supergranulation boundaries into intense flux tubes, whose properties are discussed. (Auth.)

Sunspots During the Maunder Minimum from Machina Coelestis by Hevelius

Science.gov (United States)

Carrasco, V. M. S.; Álvarez, J. Villalba; Vaquero, J. M.

2015-10-01

We revisited the sunspot observations published by Johannes Hevelius in his book Machina Coelestis (1679) corresponding to the period of 1653 - 1675 (just in the middle of the Maunder Minimum). We show detailed translations of the original Latin texts describing the sunspot records and provide the general context of these sunspot observations. From this source, we present an estimate of the annual values of the group sunspot number based only on the records that explicitly inform us of the presence or absence of sunspots. Although we obtain very low values of the group sunspot number, in accordance with a grand minimum of solar activity, these values are significantly higher in general than the values provided by Hoyt and Schatten ( Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998) for the same period.

Solar rotation and meridional motions derived from sunspot groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tuominen, J.; Tuominen, I.; Kyroelaeinen, J.

1982-01-01

Latitudinal and longitudinal motions of sunspot groups have been studied using the positions of recurrent sunspot groups of 103 years published by Greenwich observatory. In order to avoid any limb effects, only positions close to the central meridian have been used. The data were divided into two parts: those belonging to the years around sunspot maxima and those belonging to the years around sunspot minima. Using several different criteria it was ascertained that sunspot groups show meridional motions and that their drift curves as a function of latitude are different around maxima and around minima. In addition, also the angular velocity, as a function of latitude, was found to be different around maxima and minima. (Auth.)

Towards the automatic detection and analysis of sunspot rotation

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Daniel S.; Walker, Andrew P.

2016-10-01

Torsional rotation of sunspots have been noted by many authors over the past century. Sunspots have been observed to rotate up to the order of 200 degrees over 8-10 days, and these have often been linked with eruptive behaviour such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, most studies in the literature are case studies or small-number studies which suffer from selection bias. In order to better understand sunspot rotation and its impact on the corona, unbiased large-sample statistical studies are required (including both rotating and non-rotating sunspots). While this can be done manually, a better approach is to automate the detection and analysis of rotating sunspots using robust methods with well characterised uncertainties. The SDO/HMI instrument provide long-duration, high-resolution and high-cadence continuum observations suitable for extracting a large number of examples of rotating sunspots. This presentation will outline the analysis of SDI/HMI data to determine the rotation (and non-rotation) profiles of sunspots for the complete duration of their transit across the solar disk, along with how this can be extended to automatically identify sunspots and initiate their analysis.

The onset of the solar active cycle 22

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahluwalia, H.S.

1989-01-01

There is a great deal of interest in being able to predict the main characteristics of a solar activity cycle (SAC). One would like to know, for instance, how large the amplitude (R sub m) of a cycle is likely to be, i.e., the annual mean of the sunspot numbers at the maximum of SAC. Also, how long a cycle is likely to last, i.e., its period. It would also be interesting to be able to predict the details, like how steep the ascending phase of a cycle is likely to be. Questions like these are of practical importance to NASA in planning the launch schedule for the low altitude, expensive spacecrafts like the Hubble Space Telescope, the Space Station, etc. Also, one has to choose a proper orbit, so that once launched the threat of an atmospheric drag on the spacecraft is properly taken into account. Cosmic ray data seem to indicate that solar activity cycle 22 will surpass SAC 21 in activity. The value of R sub m for SAC 22 may approach that of SAC 19. It would be interesting to see whether this prediction is borne out. Researchers are greatly encouraged to proceed with the development of a comprehensive prediction model which includes information provided by cosmic ray data

The onset of the solar active cycle 22

Science.gov (United States)

Ahluwalia, H. S.

1989-01-01

There is a great deal of interest in being able to predict the main characteristics of a solar activity cycle (SAC). One would like to know, for instance, how large the amplitude (R sub m) of a cycle is likely to be, i.e., the annual mean of the sunspot numbers at the maximum of SAC. Also, how long a cycle is likely to last, i.e., its period. It would also be interesting to be able to predict the details, like how steep the ascending phase of a cycle is likely to be. Questions like these are of practical importance to NASA in planning the launch schedule for the low altitude, expensive spacecrafts like the Hubble Space Telescope, the Space Station, etc. Also, one has to choose a proper orbit, so that once launched the threat of an atmospheric drag on the spacecraft is properly taken into account. Cosmic ray data seem to indicate that solar activity cycle 22 will surpass SAC 21 in activity. The value of R sub m for SAC 22 may approach that of SAC 19. It would be interesting to see whether this prediction is borne out. Researchers are greatly encouraged to proceed with the development of a comprehensive prediction model which includes information provided by cosmic ray data.

Gnevyshev peaks in solar radio emissions at different frequencies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. P. Kane

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Sunspots have a major 11-year cycle, but the years near the sunspot maximum show two or more peaks called GP (Gnevyshev Peaks. In this communication, it was examined whether these peaks in sunspots are reflected in other parameters such as Lyman-α (the chromospheric emission 121.6 nm, radio emissions 242–15 400 MHz emanating from altitude levels 2000–12 000 km, the low latitude (+45° to −45° solar open magnetic flux and the coronal green line emission (Fe XIV, 530.3 nm. In the different solar cycles 20–23, the similarity extended at least upto the level of 609 MHz, but in cycle 22, the highest level was of 242 MHz. The extension to the higher level in cycle 22 does not seem to be related to the cycle strength Rz(max, or to the cycle length.

Solar cycle predicts folate-sensitive neonatal genotypes at discrete phases of the first trimester of pregnancy: a novel folate-related human embryo loss hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lucock, Mark; Glanville, Tracey; Yates, Zoë; Walker, James; Furst, John; Simpson, Nigel

2012-08-01

Folate, a key periconceptional nutrient, is ultraviolet light (UV-R) sensitive. We therefore hypothesise that a relationship exists between sunspot activity, a proxy for total solar irradiance (particularly UV-R) reaching Earth, and the occurrence of folate-sensitive, epigenomic-related neonatal genotypes during the first trimester of pregnancy. Limited data is provided to support the hypothesis that the solar cycle predicts folate-related human embryo loss: 379 neonates born at latitude 54°N between 1998 and 2000 were examined for three folate-sensitive, epigenome-related polymorphisms, with solar activity for trimester one accessed via the Royal Greenwich Observatory-US Air force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Sunspot Database (34,110 total observation days). Logistic regression showed solar activity predicts C677T-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (C677T-MTHFR) and A66G-methionine synthase reductase (A66G-MSR) genotype at discrete phases of trimester one. Total and maximal sunspot activity predicts C677T-MTHFR genotype for days 31-60 of trimester one (p=0.0181 and 0.0366, respectively) and A66G-MSR genotype for days 61-90 of trimester one (p=0.0072 and 0.0105, respectively). Loss of UV-R sensitive folate associated with the sunspot cycle might therefore interact with variant folate genes to perturb DNA methylation and/or elaboration of the primary base sequence (thymidylate synthesis), as well as increase embryo-toxic homocysteine. We hypothesise that this may influence embryo viability leading to 677CC-MTHFR and 66GG-MSR embryo loss at times of increased solar activity. This provides an interesting and plausible link between well recognised 'folate gene originated developmental disorders' and 'solar activity/seasonality modulated developmental disorders'. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Ching-Cheh

2007-01-01

A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

MEASUREMENTS OF ABSORPTION, EMISSIVITY REDUCTION, AND LOCAL SUPPRESSION OF SOLAR ACOUSTIC WAVES IN SUNSPOTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chou, D.-Y.; Liang, Z.-C.; Yang, M.-H.; Zhao Hui; Sun, M.-T.

2009-01-01

The power of solar acoustic waves in magnetic regions is lower relative to the quiet Sun. Absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression of acoustic waves contribute to the observed power reduction in magnetic regions. We propose a model for the energy budget of acoustic waves propagating through a sunspot in terms of the coefficients of absorption, emissivity reduction, and local suppression of the sunspot. Using the property that the waves emitted along the wave path between two points have no correlation with the signal at the starting point, we can separate the effects of these three mechanisms. Applying this method to helioseismic data filtered with direction and phase-velocity filters, we measure the fraction of the contribution of each mechanism to the power deficit in the umbra of the leading sunspot of NOAA 9057. The contribution from absorption is 23.3 ± 1.3%, emissivity reduction 8.2 ± 1.4%, and local suppression 68.5 ± 1.5%, for a wave packet corresponding to a phase velocity of 6.98 x 10 -5 rad s -1 .

Probing sunspots with two-skip time-distance helioseismology

Science.gov (United States)

Duvall, Thomas L., Jr.; Cally, Paul S.; Przybylski, Damien; Nagashima, Kaori; Gizon, Laurent

2018-06-01

Context. Previous helioseismology of sunspots has been sensitive to both the structural and magnetic aspects of sunspot structure. Aims: We aim to develop a technique that is insensitive to the magnetic component so the two aspects can be more readily separated. Methods: We study waves reflected almost vertically from the underside of a sunspot. Time-distance helioseismology was used to measure travel times for the waves. Ray theory and a detailed sunspot model were used to calculate travel times for comparison. Results: It is shown that these large distance waves are insensitive to the magnetic field in the sunspot. The largest travel time differences for any solar phenomena are observed. Conclusions: With sufficient modeling effort, these should lead to better understanding of sunspot structure.

SPECTROPOLARIMETRICALLY ACCURATE MAGNETOHYDROSTATIC SUNSPOT MODEL FOR FORWARD MODELING IN HELIOSEISMOLOGY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Przybylski, D.; Shelyag, S.; Cally, P. S. [Monash Center for Astrophysics, School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800 (Australia)

2015-07-01

We present a technique to construct a spectropolarimetrically accurate magnetohydrostatic model of a large-scale solar magnetic field concentration, mimicking a sunspot. Using the constructed model we perform a simulation of acoustic wave propagation, conversion, and absorption in the solar interior and photosphere with the sunspot embedded into it. With the 6173 Å magnetically sensitive photospheric absorption line of neutral iron, we calculate observable quantities such as continuum intensities, Doppler velocities, as well as the full Stokes vector for the simulation at various positions at the solar disk, and analyze the influence of non-locality of radiative transport in the solar photosphere on helioseismic measurements. Bisector shapes were used to perform multi-height observations. The differences in acoustic power at different heights within the line formation region at different positions at the solar disk were simulated and characterized. An increase in acoustic power in the simulated observations of the sunspot umbra away from the solar disk center was confirmed as the slow magnetoacoustic wave.

SPECTROPOLARIMETRICALLY ACCURATE MAGNETOHYDROSTATIC SUNSPOT MODEL FOR FORWARD MODELING IN HELIOSEISMOLOGY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Przybylski, D.; Shelyag, S.; Cally, P. S.

2015-01-01

We present a technique to construct a spectropolarimetrically accurate magnetohydrostatic model of a large-scale solar magnetic field concentration, mimicking a sunspot. Using the constructed model we perform a simulation of acoustic wave propagation, conversion, and absorption in the solar interior and photosphere with the sunspot embedded into it. With the 6173 Å magnetically sensitive photospheric absorption line of neutral iron, we calculate observable quantities such as continuum intensities, Doppler velocities, as well as the full Stokes vector for the simulation at various positions at the solar disk, and analyze the influence of non-locality of radiative transport in the solar photosphere on helioseismic measurements. Bisector shapes were used to perform multi-height observations. The differences in acoustic power at different heights within the line formation region at different positions at the solar disk were simulated and characterized. An increase in acoustic power in the simulated observations of the sunspot umbra away from the solar disk center was confirmed as the slow magnetoacoustic wave

STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kilpua, E. K. J.; Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J.; Miyahara, H.; Kataoka, R.; Liu, Y. D.

2015-01-01

We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field

STATISTICAL STUDY OF STRONG AND EXTREME GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR CYCLE CHARACTERISTICS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kilpua, E. K. J. [Department of Physics, University Helsinki (Finland); Olspert, N.; Grigorievskiy, A.; Käpylä, M. J.; Tanskanen, E. I.; Pelt, J. [ReSoLVE Centre of Excellence, Department of Computer Science, P.O. Box 15400, FI-00076 Aalto Univeristy (Finland); Miyahara, H. [Musashino Art University, 1-736 Ogawa-cho, Kodaira-shi, Tokyo 187-8505 (Japan); Kataoka, R. [National Institute of Polar Research, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8518 (Japan); Liu, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

2015-06-20

We study the relation between strong and extreme geomagnetic storms and solar cycle characteristics. The analysis uses an extensive geomagnetic index AA data set spanning over 150 yr complemented by the Kakioka magnetometer recordings. We apply Pearson correlation statistics and estimate the significance of the correlation with a bootstrapping technique. We show that the correlation between the storm occurrence and the strength of the solar cycle decreases from a clear positive correlation with increasing storm magnitude toward a negligible relationship. Hence, the quieter Sun can also launch superstorms that may lead to significant societal and economic impact. Our results show that while weaker storms occur most frequently in the declining phase, the stronger storms have the tendency to occur near solar maximum. Our analysis suggests that the most extreme solar eruptions do not have a direct connection between the solar large-scale dynamo-generated magnetic field, but are rather associated with smaller-scale dynamo and resulting turbulent magnetic fields. The phase distributions of sunspots and storms becoming increasingly in phase with increasing storm strength, on the other hand, may indicate that the extreme storms are related to the toroidal component of the solar large-scale field.

Emergence of Magnetic Flux Generated in a Solar Convective Dynamo. I. The Formation of Sunspots and Active Regions, and The Origin of Their Asymmetries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Feng; Rempel, Matthias; Fan, Yuhong, E-mail: chenfeng@ucar.edu [High Altitude Observatory, NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307 (United States)

2017-09-10

We present a realistic numerical model of sunspot and active region formation based on the emergence of flux bundles generated in a solar convective dynamo. To this end, we use the magnetic and velocity fields in a horizontal layer near the top boundary of the solar convective dynamo simulation to drive realistic radiative-magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the uppermost layers of the convection zone. The main results are as follows. (1) The emerging flux bundles rise with the mean speed of convective upflows and fragment into small-scale magnetic elements that further rise to the photosphere, where bipolar sunspot pairs are formed through the coalescence of the small-scale magnetic elements. (2) Filamentary penumbral structures form when the sunspot is still growing through ongoing flux emergence. In contrast to the classical Evershed effect, the inflow seems to prevail over the outflow in a large part of the penumbra. (3) A well-formed sunspot is a mostly monolithic magnetic structure that is anchored in a persistent deep-seated downdraft lane. The flow field outside the spot shows a giant vortex ring that comprises an inflow below 15 Mm depth and an outflow above 15 Mm depth. (4) The sunspots successfully reproduce the fundamental properties of the observed solar active regions, including the more coherent leading spots with a stronger field strength, and the correct tilts of bipolar sunspot pairs. These asymmetries can be linked to the intrinsic asymmetries in the magnetic and flow fields adapted from the convective dynamo simulation.

Application of Avco data analysis and prediction techniques (ADAPT) to prediction of sunspot activity

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, H. E.; Amato, R. A.

1972-01-01

The results are presented of the application of Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) to derivation of new algorithms for the prediction of future sunspot activity. The ADAPT derived algorithms show a factor of 2 to 3 reduction in the expected 2-sigma errors in the estimates of the 81-day running average of the Zurich sunspot numbers. The report presents: (1) the best estimates for sunspot cycles 20 and 21, (2) a comparison of the ADAPT performance with conventional techniques, and (3) specific approaches to further reduction in the errors of estimated sunspot activity and to recovery of earlier sunspot historical data. The ADAPT programs are used both to derive regression algorithm for prediction of the entire 11-year sunspot cycle from the preceding two cycles and to derive extrapolation algorithms for extrapolating a given sunspot cycle based on any available portion of the cycle.

RIEGER-TYPE PERIODICITY DURING SOLAR CYCLES 14–24: ESTIMATION OF DYNAMO MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH IN THE SOLAR INTERIOR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gurgenashvili, Eka; Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Kukhianidze, Vasil; Ramishvili, Giorgi; Shergelashvili, Bidzina [Abastumani Astrophysical Observatory at Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia (United States); Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis [Departament de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, E-07122, Palma de Mallorca (Spain); Hanslmeier, Arnold [IGAM, Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Universitätsplatz 5, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Poedts, Stefaan, E-mail: teimuraz.zaqarashvili@uni-graz.at [Centre for Mathematical Plasma Astrophysics, Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200B, B-3001, Leuven (Belgium)

2016-07-20

Solar activity undergoes a variation over timescales of several months known as Rieger-type periodicity, which usually occurs near maxima of sunspot cycles. An early analysis showed that the periodicity appears only in some cycles and is absent in other cycles. But the appearance/absence during different cycles has not been explained. We performed a wavelet analysis of sunspot data from the Greenwich Royal Observatory and the Royal Observatory of Belgium during cycles 14–24. We found that the Rieger-type periods occur in all cycles, but they are cycle dependent: shorter periods occur during stronger cycles. Our analysis revealed a periodicity of 185–195 days during the weak cycles 14–15 and 24 and a periodicity of 155–165 days during the stronger cycles 16–23. We derived the dispersion relation of the spherical harmonics of the magnetic Rossby waves in the presence of differential rotation and a toroidal magnetic field in the dynamo layer near the base of the convection zone. This showed that the harmonics of fast Rossby waves with m = 1 and n = 4, where m ( n ) indicates the toroidal (poloidal) wavenumbers, perfectly fit with the observed periodicity. The variation of the toroidal field strength from weaker to stronger cycles may lead to the different periods found in those cycles, which explains the observed enigmatic feature of the Rieger-type periodicity. Finally, we used the observed periodicity to estimate the dynamo field strength during cycles 14–24. Our estimations suggest a field strength of ∼40 kG for the stronger cycles and ∼20 kG for the weaker cycles.

A study of the asymmetrical distribution of solar activity features on solar and plasma parameters (1967-2016)

Science.gov (United States)

El-Borie, M. A.; El-Taher, A. M.; Aly, N. E.; Bishara, A. A.

2018-04-01

The impact of asymmetrical distribution of hemispheric sunspot areas (SSAs) on the interplanetary magnetic field, plasma, and solar parameters from 1967 to 2016 has been studied. The N-S asymmetry of solar-plasma activities based on SSAs has a northern dominance during solar cycles 20 and 24. However, it has a tendency to shift to the southern hemisphere in cycles 21, 22, and 23. The solar cycle 23 showed that the sorted southern SSAs days predominated over the northern days by ˜17%. Through the solar cycles 21-24, the SSAs of the southern hemisphere were more active. In contrast, the northern SSAs predominate over the southern one by 9% throughout solar cycle 20. On the other hand, the average differences of field magnitude for the sorted northern and southern groups during solar cycles 20-24 are statistically insignificant. Clearly, twenty years showed that the solar plasma ion density from the sorted northern group was denser than that of southern group and a highest northern dominant peak occurred in 1971. In contrast, seventeen out of fifty years showed the reverse. In addition, there are fifteen clear asymmetries of solar wind speed (SWS), with SWS (N) > SWS (S), and during the years 1972, 2002, and 2008, the SWS from the sorted northern group was faster than that of southern activity group by 6.16 ± 0.65 km/s, 5.70 ± 0.86 km/s, and 5.76 ± 1.35 km/s, respectively. For the solar cycles 20-24, the grand-averages of P from the sorted solar northern and southern have nearly the same parameter values. The solar plasma was hotter for the sorted northern activity group than the southern ones for 17 years out of 50. Most significant northern prevalent asymmetries were found in 1972 (5.76 ± 0.66 × 103 K) and 1996 (4.7 ± 0.8 × 103 K), while two significant equivalent dominant southern asymmetries (˜3.8 ± 0.3 × 103 K) occurred in 1978 and 1993. The grand averages of sunspot numbers have symmetric activity for the two sorted northern and southern hemispheres

A study of north-south asymmetry of interplanetary magnetic field plasma and some solar indices throughout four solar cycles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Borie, M A; Bishara, A A; Abdel-halim, A A; El-Monier, S Y

2017-01-01

We provide a long epoch study of a set of solar and plasma parameters (sunspot number Rz, total solar irradiance TSI, solar radio flux SF, solar wind speed V , ion density n, dynamic pressure n V 2 , and ion temperature T) covering a temporal range of several decades corresponding to almost four solar cycles. Such data have been organized accordingly with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity, i.e. away (A) if the azimuthal component of the IMF points away from the Sun and T if it points towards, to examine the N-S asymmetries between the northern and southern hemispheres. Our results displayed the sign of the N-S asymmetry in solar activity depends on the solar magnetic polarity state (qA>0 or qA<0). The solar flux component of toward field vector was larger in magnitude than those of away field vector during the negative polarity epochs (1986-88 and 2001-08). In addition, the solar wind speeds (SWS) are faster by about 22.11±4.5 km/s for away polarity days than for toward polarity days during the qA<0 epoch (2001-08), where the IMF points away from the Sun. Moreover, during solar cycles 21 st and 24 th the solar plasma is more dense, hotter, and faster south of the HCS. (paper)

Study of Ionospheric Indexes T and MF2 related to R12 for Solar Cycles 19-21

Science.gov (United States)

Villanueva, Lucia

2013-04-01

Modern worldwide communications are mainly based on satellite systems, remote communication networks, and advanced technologies. The most important space weather "meteorological" events produce negative effects on signal transmissions. Magnetic storm conditions that follow coronal mass ejections are particularly of great importance for radio communication at HF frequencies (3-30 MHz range), because the Ionization increase (or decrease), significantly over (or below), the Average Values. Nowadays new technologies make possible to establish Geophysical Observatories and monitor the sun almost in real time giving information about geomagnetic indices. Space Weather programs have interesting software predictions of foF2 producing maps and plots, every some minutes. The Average Values of the ionospheric parameters mainly depend on the position, hour, season and the phase of the 11-year cycle of the solar activity. Around 1990´s several ionospheric indexes were suggested to better predict the state of the foF2 monthly media, as: IF2, G, T and MF2, based on foF2 data from different latitude ionospheric observatories. They really show better seasonal changes than monthly solar indexes of solar flux F10.7 or the international sunspot numbers Ri. The main purpose of this paper is to present an analogic model for the ionospheric index MF2, to establish the average long term predictions of this index. Changes of phase from one cycle to the other of one component of the model is found to fit the data. The usefulness of this model could be the prediction of the ionospheric normal conditions for one entire solar cycle having just the prediction of the maximum of the next smooth sunspot number R12. In this presentation, comparisons of the Australian T index and and the Mikhailov MF2 index show an hysteresis variation with the solar monthly index Ri, such dependence is quite well represented by a polynomial fit of degree 6 for rising and decaying fases for solar cycles 19, 20 and

Prediction of the Length of Upcoming Solar Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Kakad, Bharati; Kakad, Amar; Ramesh, Durbha Sai

2017-12-01

The forecast of solar cycle (SC) characteristics is crucial particularly for several space-based missions. In the present study, we propose a new model for predicting the length of the SC. The model uses the information of the width of an autocorrelation function that is derived from the daily sunspot data for each SC. We tested the model on Versions 1 and 2 of the daily international sunspot number data for SCs 10 - 24. We found that the autocorrelation width Aw n of SC n during the second half of its ascending phase correlates well with the modified length that is defined as T_{cy}^{n+2} - Tan. Here T_{cy}^{n+2} and T_{ a}n are the length and ascent time of SCs n+2 and n, respectively. The estimated correlation coefficient between the model parameters is 0.93 (0.91) for Version 1 (Version 2) sunspot series. The standard errors in the observed and predicted lengths of the SCs for Version 1 and Version 2 data are 0.38 and 0.44 years, respectively. The advantage of the proposed model is that the predictions of the length of the upcoming two SCs ( i.e., n+1, n+2) are readily available at the time of the peak of SC n. The present model gives a forecast of 11.01, 10.52, and 11.91 years (11.01, 12.20, and 11.68 years) for the length of SCs 24, 25, and 26, respectively, for Version 1 (Version 2).

Drought over Seoul and Its Association with Solar Cycles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong-Hyeok Park

2013-12-01

Full Text Available We have investigated drought periodicities occurred in Seoul to find out any indication of relationship between drought in Korea and solar activities. It is motivated, in view of solar-terrestrial connection, to search for an example of extreme weather condition controlled by solar activity. The periodicity of drought in Seoul has been re-examined using the wavelet transform technique as the consensus is not achieved yet. The reason we have chosen Seoul is because daily precipitation was recorded for longer than 200 years, which meets our requirement that analyses of drought frequency demand long-term historical data to ensure reliable estimates. We have examined three types of time series of the Effective Drought Index (EDI. We have directly analyzed EDI time series in the first place. And we have constructed and analyzed time series of histogram in which the number of days whose EDI is less than -1.5 for a given month of the year is given as a function of time, and one in which the number of occasions where EDI values of three consecutive days are all less than -1.5 is given as a function of time. All the time series data sets we analyzed are periodic. Apart from the annual cycle due to seasonal variations, periodicities shorter than the 11 year sunspot cycle, ~ 3, ~ 4, ~ 6 years, have been confirmed. Periodicities to which theses short periodicities (shorter than Hale period may be corresponding are not yet known. Longer periodicities possibly related to Gleissberg cycles, ~ 55, ~ 120 years, can be also seen. However, periodicity comparable to the 11 year solar cycle seems absent in both EDI and the constructed data sets.

Sunspots Resource--From Ancient Cultures to Modern Research

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, N.

2000-10-01

Sunspots is a web-based lesson that was developed by the Science Education Gateway (SEGway) program with participants from the Exploratorium, a well known science Museum in San Francisco, UC Berkeley Space Sciences Laboratory, and teachers from several California schools. This space science resource allows 8-12 grade students to explore the nature of sunspots and the history of solar physics in its effort to understand their nature. Interviews with solar physicists and archeo-astronomers, historic images, cutting-edge NASA images, movies, and research results, as well as a student-centered sunspot research activity using NASA space science data defines this lesson. The sunspot resource is aligned with the NCTM and National Science Education Standards. It emphasizes inquiry-based methods and mathematical exercises through measurement, graphic data representation, analysis of NASA data, lastly, interpreting results and drawing conclusions. These resources have been successfully classroom tested in 4 middle schools in the San Francisco Unified School District as part of the 3-week Summer School Science curricula. Lessons learned from the Summer School 1999 will be explained. This resource includes teacher-friendly lesson plans, space science background material and student worksheets. There will be Sunspots lesson CD-ROM and printed version of the relevant classroom-ready materials and a teacher resource booklet available. Sunspot resource is brought to you by, The Science Education Gateway - SEGway - Project, and the HESSI satellite and NASA's Office of Space Science Sun-Earth Connection Education Forum.

The sunspot databases of the Debrecen Observatory

Science.gov (United States)

Baranyi, Tünde; Gyori, Lajos; Ludmány, András

2015-08-01

We present the sunspot data bases and online tools available in the Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory: the DPD (Debrecen Photoheliographic Data, 1974 -), the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data, 1996-2010), the HMIDD (SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data, HMIDD, 2010-), the revised version of Greenwich Photoheliographic Data (GPR, 1874-1976) presented together with the Hungarian Historical Solar Drawings (HHSD, 1872-1919). These are the most detailed and reliable documentations of the sunspot activity in the relevant time intervals. They are very useful for studying sunspot group evolution on various time scales from hours to weeks. Time-dependent differences between the available long-term sunspot databases are investigated and cross-calibration factors are determined between them. This work has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2012-2015) under grant agreement No. 284461 (eHEROES).

Identification of possible intense historical geomagnetic storms using combined sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. M. Willis

2005-03-01

Full Text Available Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma

Resonance of about-weekly human heart rate rhythm with solar activity change.

Science.gov (United States)

Cornelissen, G; Halberg, F; Wendt, H W; Bingham, C; Sothern, R B; Haus, E; Kleitman, E; Kleitman, N; Revilla, M A; Revilla, M; Breus, T K; Pimenov, K; Grigoriev, A E; Mitish, M D; Yatsyk, G V; Syutkina, E V

1996-12-01

In several human adults, certain solar activity rhythms may influence an about 7-day rhythm in heart rate. When no about-weekly feature was found in the rate of change in sunspot area, a measure of solar activity, the double amplitude of a circadian heart rate rhythm, approximated by the fit of a 7-day cosine curve, was lower, as was heart rate corresponds to about-weekly features in solar activity and/or relates to a sunspot cycle.

LOOKING FOR GRANULATION AND PERIODICITY IMPRINTS IN THE SUNSPOT TIME SERIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopes, Ilídio [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofísica, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Silva, Hugo G., E-mail: ilidio.lopes@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, E-mail: hgsilva@uevora.pt [Departamento de Física, ECT, Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7002-554 Évora (Portugal)

2015-05-10

The sunspot activity is the end result of the cyclic destruction and regeneration of magnetic fields by the dynamo action. We propose a new method to analyze the daily sunspot areas data recorded since 1874. By computing the power spectral density of daily data series using the Mexican hat wavelet, we found a power spectrum with a well-defined shape, characterized by three features. The first term is the 22 yr solar magnetic cycle, estimated in our work to be 18.43 yr. The second term is related to the daily volatility of sunspots. This term is most likely produced by the turbulent motions linked to the solar granulation. The last term corresponds to a periodic source associated with the solar magnetic activity, for which the maximum power spectral density occurs at 22.67 days. This value is part of the 22–27 day periodicity region that shows an above-average intensity in the power spectra. The origin of this 22.67 day periodic process is not clearly identified, and there is a possibility that it can be produced by convective flows inside the star. The study clearly shows a north–south asymmetry. The 18.43 yr periodical source is correlated between the two hemispheres, but the 22.67 day one is not correlated. It is shown that toward the large timescales an excess occurs in the northern hemisphere, especially near the previous two periodic sources. To further investigate the 22.67 day periodicity, we made a Lomb–Scargle spectral analysis. The study suggests that this periodicity is distinct from others found nearby.

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE SOLAR WIND PROTON MEASUREMENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J. [Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX (United States); DeForest, Craig E. [Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO (United States)

2016-11-20

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965–2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature ( T {sub p}) and speed ( V {sub p}) and between the proton density ( n {sub p}) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature–speed ( T {sub p}– V {sub p}) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density–speed ( n {sub p}– V {sub p}) relationship is not linear like the T {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship, we perform power-law fits for n {sub p}– V {sub p}. The exponent (steepness in the n {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n {sub p} for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n {sub p} is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n {sub p} variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n {sub p}– V {sub p} exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T {sub p} and V {sub p} data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

Tracking the Magnetic Flux in and Around Sunspots

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sheeley, N. R. Jr.; Stauffer, J. R.; Thomassie, J. C.; Warren, H. P., E-mail: solsheeley@verizon.net, E-mail: harry.warren@nrl.navy.mil [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375-5352 (United States)

2017-02-10

We have developed a procedure for tracking sunspots observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory and for making curvature-corrected space/time maps of the associated line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity. We apply this procedure to 36 sunspots, each observed continuously for nine days around its central meridian passage time, and find that the proper motions separate into two distinct components depending on their speeds. Fast (∼3–5 km s{sup −1}) motions, comparable to Evershed flows, are produced by weak vertical fluctuations of the horizontal canopy field and recur on a timescale of 12–20 min. Slow (∼0.3–0.5 km s{sup −1}) motions diverge from a sunspot-centered ring whose location depends on the size of the sunspot, occurring in the mid-penumbra for large sunspots and at the outer edge of the penumbra for small sunspots. The slow ingoing features are contracting spokes of a quasi-vertical field of umbral polarity. These inflows disappear when the sunspot loses its penumbra, and may be related to inward-moving penumbral grain. The slow outgoing features may have either polarity depending on whether they originate from quasi-vertical fields of umbral polarity or from the outer edge of the canopy. When a sunspot decays, the penumbra and canopy disappear, and the moat becomes filled with slow outflows of umbral polarity. We apply our procedure to decaying sunspots, to long-lived sunspots, and to numerical simulations of a long-lived sunspot by Rempel.

A new look at sunspot formation using theory and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Losada, I. R.; Warnecke, J.; Glogowski, K.; Roth, M.; Brandenburg, A.; Kleeorin, N.; Rogachevskii, I.

2017-10-01

Sunspots are of basic interest in the study of the Sun. Their relevance ranges from them being an activity indicator of magnetic fields to being the place where coronal mass ejections and flares erupt. They are therefore also an important ingredient of space weather. Their formation, however, is still an unresolved problem in solar physics. Observations utilize just 2D surface information near the spot, but it is debatable how to infer deep structures and properties from local helioseismology. For a long time, it was believed that flux tubes rising from the bottom of the convection zone are the origin of the bipolar sunspot structure seen on the solar surface. However, this theory has been challenged, in particular recently by new surface observation, helioseismic inversions, and numerical models of convective dynamos. In this article we discuss another theoretical approach to the formation of sunspots: the negative effective magnetic pressure instability. This is a large-scale instability, in which the total (kinetic plus magnetic) turbulent pressure can be suppressed in the presence of a weak large-scale magnetic field, leading to a converging downflow, which eventually concentrates the magnetic field within it. Numerical simulations of forced stratified turbulence have been able to produce strong super-equipartition flux concentrations, similar to sunspots at the solar surface. In this framework, sunspots would only form close to the surface due to the instability constraints on stratification and rotation. Additionally, we present some ideas from local helioseismology, where we plan to use the Hankel analysis to study the pre-emergence phase of a sunspot and to constrain its deep structure and formation mechanism.

Solar wind and coronal structure near sunspot minimum - Pioneer and SMM observations from 1985-1987

Science.gov (United States)

Mihalov, J. D.; Barnes, A.; Hundhausen, A. J.; Smith, E. J.

1990-01-01

Changes in solar wind speed and magnetic polarity observed at the Pioneer spacecraft are discussed here in terms of the changing magnetic geometry implied by SMM coronagraph observations over the period 1985-1987. The pattern of recurrent solar wind streams, the long-term average speed, and the sector polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field all changed in a manner suggesting both a temporal variation, and a changing dependence on heliographic latitude. Coronal observations during this epoch show a systematic variation in coronal structure and the magnetic structure imposed on the expanding solar wind. These observations suggest interpretation of the solar wind speed variations in terms of the familiar model where the speed increases with distance from a nearly flat interplanetary current sheet, and where this current sheet becomes aligned with the solar equatorial plane as sunspot minimum approaches, but deviates rapidly from that orientation after minimum.

Iwahashi Zenbei's Sunspot Drawings in 1793 in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hayakawa, Hisashi; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Toriumi, Shin; Shibata, Kazunari

2018-01-01

Three Japanese sunspot drawings associated with Iwahashi Zenbei (1756 - 1811) are shown here from contemporary manuscripts and woodprint documents with the relevant texts. We reveal the observational date of one of the drawings to be 26 August 1793, and the overall observations lasted for over a year. Moreover, we identify the observational site for the dated drawing as Fushimi in Japan. We then compare Zenbei's observations with the group sunspot number and the raw group count from the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO) to reveal the context of the data, and we conclude that these drawings fill gaps in our understanding that are due to the fragmental sunspot observations around 1793. These drawings are important as a clue to evaluate astronomical knowledge of contemporary Japan in the late eighteenth century and are valuable as a non-European observation, considering that most sunspot observations up to the middle of the nineteenth century are from Europe.

ON THE WEAKENING OF THE POLAR MAGNETIC FIELDS DURING SOLAR CYCLE 23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.-M.; Sheeley, N. R.; Robbrecht, E.

2009-01-01

The Sun's polar fields are currently ∼40% weaker than they were during the previous three sunspot minima. This weakening has been accompanied by a corresponding decrease in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, by a ∼20% shrinkage in the polar coronal-hole areas, and by a reduction in the solar-wind mass flux over the poles. It has also been reflected in coronal streamer structure and the heliospheric current sheet, which only showed the expected flattening into the equatorial plane after sunspot numbers fell to unusually low values in mid-2008. From latitude-time plots of the photospheric field, it has long been apparent that the polar fields are formed through the transport of trailing-polarity flux from the sunspot latitudes to the poles. To address the question of why the polar fields are now so weak, we simulate the evolution of the photospheric field and radial IMF strength from 1965 to the present, employing a surface transport model that includes the effects of active region emergence, differential rotation, supergranular convection, and a poleward bulk flow. We find that the observed evolution can be reproduced if the amplitude of the surface meridional flow is varied by as little as 15% (between 14.5 and 17 m s -1 ), with the higher average speeds being required during the long cycles 20 and 23.

Implications of Extended Solar Minima

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Mitzi L.; Davis, J. M.

2009-01-01

Since the discovery of periodicity in the solar cycle, the historical record of sunspot number has been carefully examined, attempting to make predictions about the next cycle. Much emphasis has been on predicting the maximum amplitude and length of the next cycle. Because current space-based and suborbital instruments are designed to study active phenomena, there is considerable interest in estimating the length and depth of the current minimum. We have developed criteria for the definition of a minimum and applied it to the historical sunspot record starting in 1749. In doing so, we find that 1) the current minimum is not yet unusually long and 2) there is no obvious way of predicting when, using our definition, the current minimum may end. However, by grouping the data into 22- year cycles there is an interesting pattern of extended minima that recurs every fourth or fifth 22-year cycle. A preliminary comparison of this pattern with other records, suggests the possibility of a correlation between extended minima and lower levels of solar irradiance.

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Kilcik, A.; Yurchyshyn, V.; Donmez, B.; Obridko, V. N.; Ozguc, A.; Rozelot, J. P.

2018-04-01

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is 113± 1.6 days while we detected much longer periodicities (327± 13, 312 ± 11, and 256± 8 days) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding 55± 0.7 days during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a 113± 1.3 days period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only 31± 0.2 days for Cycle 22 and 72± 1.3 days for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was 327± 13 days during Solar Cycle 23.

Solar proton fluxes since 1956

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reedy, R.C.

1977-01-01

The fluxes of protons emitted during solar flares since 1956 were evaluated. The depth-versus-activity profiles of 56 Co in several lunar rocks are consistent with the solar-proton fluxes detected by experiments on several satellites. Only about 20% of the solar-proton-induced activities of 22 Na and 55 Fe in lunar rocks from early Apollo missions were produced by protons emitted from the sun during solar cycle 20 (1965--1975). The depth-versus-activity data for these radionuclides in several lunar rocks were used to determine the fluxes of protons during solar cycle 19 (1954--1964). The average proton fluxes for cycle 19 are about five times those for both the last million years and for cycle 20. These solar-proton flux variations correlate with changes in sunspot activity

Solar energetic particle events during the rise phases of solar cycles 23 and 24

Science.gov (United States)

Chandra, R.; Gopalswamy, N.; Mäkelä, P.; Xie, H.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Uddin, W.; Srivastava, A. K.; Joshi, N. C.; Jain, R.; Awasthi, A. K.; Manoharan, P. K.; Mahalakshmi, K.; Dwivedi, V. C.; Choudhary, D. P.; Nitta, N. V.

2013-12-01

We present a comparative study of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares associated with the solar energetic particle (SEP) events in the rising phases of solar cycles (SC) 23 (1996-1998) (22 events) and 24 (2009-2011) (20 events), which are associated with type II radio bursts. Based on the SEP intensity, we divided the events into three categories, i.e. weak (intensity pfu), minor (1 pfu pfu) and major (intensity ⩾ 10 pfu) events. We used the GOES data for the minor and major SEP events and SOHO/ERNE data for the weak SEP event. We examine the correlation of SEP intensity with flare size and CME properties. We find that most of the major SEP events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs originating close to the sun center and western-hemisphere. The fraction of halo CMEs in SC 24 is larger than the SC 23. For the minor SEP events one event in SC23 and one event in SC24 have widths < 120° and all other events are associated with halo or partial halo CMEs as in the case of major SEP events. In case of weak SEP events, majority (more than 60%) of events are associated with CME width < 120°. For both the SC the average CMEs speeds are similar. For major SEP events, average CME speeds are higher in comparison to minor and weak events. The SEP event intensity and GOES X-ray flare size are poorly correlated. During the rise phase of solar cycle 23 and 24, we find north-south asymmetry in the SEP event source locations: in cycle 23 most sources are located in the south, whereas during cycle 24 most sources are located in the north. This result is consistent with the asymmetry found with sunspot area and intense flares.

Open magnetic fields and the solar cycle. Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, R.H.

1982-01-01

Models of open magnetic structures on the Sun are presented for periods near solar minimum (CR 1626-1634) and near solar maximum (CR 1668-1678). Together with previous models of open magnetic structures during the declining phase (CR 1601-1611) these calculations provide clues to the relations between open structures, coronal holes, and active regions at different times of the solar cycle. Near solar minimum the close relation between active regions and open structures does not exist. It is suggested that near solar minimum the systematic emergence of new flux with the proper polarity imbalance to maintain open magnetic structures may occur primarily at very small spatial scales. Near solar maximum the role of active regions in maintaining open structures and coronal holes is strong, with large active regions emerging in the proper location and orientation to maintain open structures longer than typical active region lifetimes. Although the use of He I 10830 A spectroheliograms as a coronal hole indicator is shown to be subject to significant ambiguity, the agreement between calculated open structures and coronal holes determined from He I 10830 A spectroheliograms is very good. The rotation properties of calculated open structures near solar maximum strongly suggest two classes of features: one that rotates differentially similar to sunspots and active regions and a separate class that rotates more rigidly, as was the case for single large coronal holes during Skylab. (orig.)

Frequently Occurring Reconnection Jets from Sunspot Light Bridges

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Hui; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Peter, Hardi; Solanki, Sami K.; Young, Peter R.; Ni, Lei; Cao, Wenda; Ji, Kaifan; Zhu, Yingjie; Zhang, Jingwen; Samanta, Tanmoy; Song, Yongliang; He, Jiansen; Wang, Linghua; Chen, Yajie

2018-02-01

Solid evidence of magnetic reconnection is rarely reported within sunspots, the darkest regions with the strongest magnetic fields and lowest temperatures in the solar atmosphere. Using the world’s largest solar telescope, the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope, we detect prevalent reconnection through frequently occurring fine-scale jets in the Hα line wings at light bridges, the bright lanes that may divide the dark sunspot core into multiple parts. Many jets have an inverted Y-shape, shown by models to be typical of reconnection in a unipolar field environment. Simultaneous spectral imaging data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph show that the reconnection drives bidirectional flows up to 200 km s‑1, and that the weakly ionized plasma is heated by at least an order of magnitude up to ∼80,000 K. Such highly dynamic reconnection jets and efficient heating should be properly accounted for in future modeling efforts of sunspots. Our observations also reveal that the surge-like activity previously reported above light bridges in some chromospheric passbands such as the Hα core has two components: the ever-present short surges likely to be related to the upward leakage of magnetoacoustic waves from the photosphere, and the occasionally occurring long and fast surges that are obviously caused by the intermittent reconnection jets.

THE MEAN-FIELD SOLAR DYNAMO WITH A DOUBLE CELL MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION PATTERN

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pipin, V. V. [Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, 664033 (Russian Federation); Kosovichev, A. G. [Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States)

2013-10-10

Recent helioseismology findings, as well as advances in direct numerical simulations of global dynamics of the Sun, have indicated that in each solar hemisphere meridional circulation may form more than one cell along the radius in the convection zone. In particular, recent helioseismology results revealed a double-cell structure of the meridional circulation. We investigate properties of a mean-field solar dynamo with such double-cell meridional circulation. The dynamo model also includes the realistic profile of solar differential rotation (including the tachocline and subsurface shear layer) and takes into account effects of turbulent pumping, anisotropic turbulent diffusivity, and conservation of magnetic helicity. Contrary to previous flux-transport dynamo models, we find that the dynamo model can robustly reproduce the basic properties of the solar magnetic cycles for a wide range of model parameters and circulation speeds. The best agreement with observations is achieved when the surface meridional circulation speed is about 12 m s{sup –1}. For this circulation speed, the simulated sunspot activity shows good synchronization with the polar magnetic fields. Such synchronization was indeed observed during previous sunspot Cycles 21 and 22. We compare theoretical and observed phase diagrams of the sunspot number and the polar field strength and discuss the peculiar properties of Cycle 23.

The Strongest Magnetic Field in Sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Okamoto, J.; Sakurai, T.

2017-12-01

Sunspots are concentrations of magnetic fields on the solar surface. Generally, the strongest magnetic field in each sunspot is located in the dark umbra in most cases. A typical field strength in sunspots is around 3,000 G. On the other hand, some exceptions also have been found in complex sunspots with bright regions such as light bridges that separate opposite polarity umbrae, for instance with a strength of 4,300 G. However, the formation mechanism of such strong fields outside umbrae is still puzzling. Here we report an extremely strong magnetic field in a sunspot, which was located in a bright region sandwiched by two opposite-polarity umbrae. The strength is 6,250 G, which is the largest ever observed since the discovery of magnetic field on the Sun in 1908 by Hale. We obtained 31 scanned maps of the active region observed by Hinode/SOT/SP with a cadence of 3 hours over 5 days (February 1-6, 2014). Considering the spatial and temporal evolution of the vector magnetic field and the Doppler velocity in the bright region, we suggested that this strong field region was generated as a result of compression of one umbra pushed by the outward flow from the other umbra (Evershed flow), like the subduction of the Earth's crust in plate tectonics.

Predicting the La Niña of 2020-21: Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Variance in Solar and Atmospheric Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Leamon, R. J.; McIntosh, S. W.

2017-12-01

Establishing a solid physical connection between solar and tropospheric variability has posed a considerable challenge across the spectrum of Earth-system science. Over the past few years a new picture to describe solar variability has developed, based on observing, understanding and tracing the progression, interaction and intrinsic variability of the magnetized activity bands that belong to the Sun's 22-year magnetic activity cycle. The intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction of these magnetic bands appear to explain the occurrence of decadal scale variability that primarily manifests itself in the sunspot cycle. However, on timescales of ten months or so, those bands posses their own internal variability with an amplitude of the same order of magnitude as the decadal scale. The latter have been tied to the existence of magnetized Rossby waves in the solar convection zone that result in surges of magnetic flux emergence that correspondingly modulate our star's radiative and particulate output. One of the most important events in the progression of these bands is their (apparent) termination at the solar equator that signals a global increase in magnetic flux emergence that becomes the new solar cycle. We look at the particulate and radiative implications of these termination points, their temporal recurrence and signature, from the Sun to the Earth, and show the correlated signature of solar cycle termination events and major oceanic oscillations that extend back many decades. A combined one-two punch of reduced particulate forcing and increased radiative forcing that result from the termination of one solar cycle and rapid blossoming of another correlates strongly with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. This shift does not occur at solar minima, nor solar maxima, but at a particular, non-periodic, time in between. The failure to identify these termination points, and their relative irregularity, have inhibited a correlation to be

Sun and solar flares

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McKenna-Lawlor, S. (Saint Patrick' s Coll., Maynooth (Ireland))

1982-07-01

The subject is discussed under the headings: the sun's core (thermonuclear reactions, energy transfer from core through radiation zone, convection zone, photosphere, chromosphere and corona); the photosphere (convection, granulation, sunspots, magnetic fields, solar cycle, rotation of the sun); solar variability and paleoclimatic records (correlation of low solar activity with increased /sup 14/C production in atmosphere); the chromosphere and corona (turbulence, temperature, coronal streamers, energy transfer); solar flares (cosmic rays, aurorae, spectra, velocity of flares, prominences, mechanisms of flares); the solar wind.

The sun and solar flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKenna-Lawlor, S.

1982-01-01

The subject is discussed under the headings: the sun's core (thermonuclear reactions, energy transfer from core through radiation zone, convection zone, photosphere, chromosphere and corona); the photosphere (convection, granulation, sunspots, magnetic fields, solar cycle, rotation of the sun); solar variability and paleoclimatic records (correlation of low solar activity with increased 14 C production in atmosphere); the chromosphere and corona (turbulence, temperature, coronal streamers, energy transfer); solar flares (cosmic rays, aurorae, spectra, velocity of flares, prominences, mechanisms of flares); the solar wind. (U.K.)

Precambrian cyclic rhythmites: solar-climatic or tidal signatures?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, G.E.

1990-01-01

For more than 60 years geologists have sought evidence of solar-climatic cyclicity in rhythmically laminated sedimentary rocks, but claims in general have not been persuasive. Three Precambrian rhythmite sequences in Australia that comprise varve-like laminae recently have received attention, however, as their conspicuous cycles of ca. 10-14 and/or 20-25 laminae have been ascribed a sunspot-cycle origin. They are the 2500 Ma old Weeli Wolli Formation, the 1750 Ma old Wollogorang Formation and the 650 Ma old Elatina Formation. New observations for the Weeli Wolli Formation, a siliceous banded iron-formation, suggest a cycle period exceeding the 23 microband couplets proposed by Trendall, casting doubt on the solar interpretation. The Weeli Wolli cyclicity may record Earth-tidal rhythms that modulated the discharge and composition of silica- and iron-bearing fumarolic waters. The structure of the cycles of silty dolomite and mudstone in the Wollogorang Formation does not support a sunspot-cycle origin, and a tidal control on sedimentation should be considered. The Elatina sequence of cyclic sandstone and siltstone laminae displays several empirical similarities to the sunspot series. The discovery of thicker, more complex lamina-cycles in the correlative Reynella Siltstone has, however, caused reappraisal of the solar interpretation of the Elatina rhythmites. The Elatina series may encode unique information on lunar orbital periods and the Earth's palaeorotation: the data indicate ca. 30.5 days per lunar month, 13.1 lunar months and ca. 400 days per year, and lunar apsides and lunar nodal cycles of 9.7 and ca. 19.5 years respectively some 650 Ma ago. (author)

The Global Solar Dynamo

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, R. H.; Dikpati, M.; Brandenburg, A.

2017-09-01

A brief summary of the various observations and constraints that underlie solar dynamo research are presented. The arguments that indicate that the solar dynamo is an alpha-omega dynamo of the Babcock-Leighton type are then shortly reviewed. The main open questions that remain are concerned with the subsurface dynamics, including why sunspots emerge at preferred latitudes as seen in the familiar butterfly wings, why the cycle is about 11 years long, and why the sunspot groups emerge tilted with respect to the equator (Joy's law). Next, we turn to magnetic helicity, whose conservation property has been identified with the decline of large-scale magnetic fields found in direct numerical simulations at large magnetic Reynolds numbers. However, magnetic helicity fluxes through the solar surface can alleviate this problem and connect theory with observations, as will be discussed.

Phase space representation of neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field in relation to solar activity in cycles 21 and 22.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, H G; Lopes, I

Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays links solar cycle activity with neutron monitor count rate on earth. A less direct relation holds between neutron monitor count rate and atmospheric electric field because different atmospheric processes, including fluctuations in the ionosphere, are involved. Although a full quantitative model is still lacking, this link is supported by solid statistical evidence. Thus, a connection between the solar cycle activity and atmospheric electric field is expected. To gain a deeper insight into these relations, sunspot area (NOAA, USA), neutron monitor count rate (Climax, Colorado, USA), and atmospheric electric field (Lisbon, Portugal) are presented here in a phase space representation. The period considered covers two solar cycles (21, 22) and extends from 1978 to 1990. Two solar maxima were observed in this dataset, one in 1979 and another in 1989, as well as one solar minimum in 1986. Two main observations of the present study were: (1) similar short-term topological features of the phase space representations of the three variables, (2) a long-term phase space radius synchronization between the solar cycle activity, neutron monitor count rate, and potential gradient (confirmed by absolute correlation values above ~0.8). Finally, the methodology proposed here can be used for obtaining the relations between other atmospheric parameters (e.g., solar radiation) and solar cycle activity.

Solar cycle dependence of the radial gradient of cosmic ray intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, J.A.V.

1988-01-01

Observation of the interplanetary intensity of cosmic rays (E/sub p/>80 MeV) by Pioneers 10 and 11 now spans a sixteen-year time period 1972--1988 and heliocentric radial distances, r/sub 10/ and r/sub 11/, out to 43.7 AU for Pioneer 10 and 25.8 AU for Pioneer 11. Solar modulation continues to be present at the current distances of both spacecraft. The radial gradient of intensity is measured continuously over the slowly varying, outward moving radial segment Δr = r/sub 10/--r/sub 11/. The 50-day mean values of the gradient G vary systematically and cyclically in phase with solar activity as measured by sunspot number, with a maximum value of about 2.1 percent (AU)/sup -1/ at sunspot maximum and a miminum value of about 1.2 percent (AU)/sup -1/ at sunspot minimum. Thus, the apparent scale size of the heliospheric modulation region as measured by 1/G is about 48 AU at solar max and about 83 AU at solar min: a result that is the inverse of the conjectural inference of Randall and Van Allen [1986] using most of the same body of data but a different analytical point of view. There is persuasive evidence that G is independent of radial distance over the range 2.5 to 34 AU in the mid-point of the segment Δr. No dependence of G on heliographic latitude is evident, but this result does not lend itself to a quantitative statement. copyright American Geophysical Union 1988

Sun-controlled spatial and time-dependent cycles in the climatic/weather system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1990-11-01

We show, on the basis of meteorological records, that certain spatial and time-dependent cycles exist in the earth-atmosphere system (EAS). These cycles seem to be associated with sunspot cycles and hence have been referred to in the text as ''data-derived solar cycles''. Our analysis establishes three important characteristics of the data-derived solar cycles (DSC's). Firstly the crests and troughs of these data-derived solar cycles are mostly latitudinally aligned and have (zonal) spatial wavelengths greater than about 7 degrees of longitude. Secondly the DSC's have periods mostly lying between 6 years and 12 years. In certain stations, some DSC's coincide quite well with corresponding sunspot cycles. Thirdly the crests and troughs of the DSC's drift eastwards at speeds exceeding about 1.5 longitude degrees per year. Furthermore, these DSC's display peak-to-peak amplitudes of about 2 deg. C along East Africa. On the basis of earlier work and bearing in mind the considerable temperature-dependence of the stratospheric ozone layer, we predict existence of latitudinally aligned enhancement and depletion structures (corresponding to the DSC's) in the stratospheric ozone layer within cloudless midnight-to-predawn sectors. (author). 9 refs, 5 figs

Photospheric Origin of Three-minute Oscillations in a Sunspot

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chae, Jongchul; Lee, Jeongwoo; Cho, Kyuhyoun; Song, Donguk [Astronomy Program, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Kyungsuk; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, 776 Daedeokdae-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34055 (Korea, Republic of)

2017-02-10

The origin of the three-minute oscillations of intensity and velocity observed in the chromosphere of sunspot umbrae is still unclear. We investigated the spatio-spectral properties of the 3 minute oscillations of velocity in the photosphere of a sunspot umbra as well as those in the low chromosphere using the spectral data of the Ni i λ 5436, Fe i λ 5435, and Na i D{sub 2} λ 5890 lines taken by the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph of the 1.6 m New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory. As a result, we found a local enhancement of the 3 minute oscillation power in the vicinities of a light bridge (LB) and numerous umbral dots (UDs) in the photosphere. These 3 minute oscillations occurred independently of the 5 minute oscillations. Through wavelet analysis, we determined the amplitudes and phases of the 3 minute oscillations at the formation heights of the spectral lines, and they were found to be consistent with the upwardly propagating slow magnetoacoustic waves in the photosphere with energy flux large enough to explain the chromospheric oscillations. Our results suggest that the 3 minute chromospheric oscillations in this sunspot may have been generated by magnetoconvection occurring in the LB and UDs.

Measuring Solar Radiation Incident on Earth: Solar Constant-3 (SOLCON-3)

Science.gov (United States)

Crommelynck, Dominique; Joukoff, Alexandre; Dewitte, Steven

2002-01-01

Life on Earth is possible because the climate conditions on Earth are relatively mild. One element of the climate on Earth, the temperature, is determined by the heat exchanges between the Earth and its surroundings, outer space. The heat exchanges take place in the form of electromagnetic radiation. The Earth gains energy because it absorbs solar radiation, and it loses energy because it emits thermal infrared radiation to cold space. The heat exchanges are in balance: the heat gained by the Earth through solar radiation equals the heat lost through thermal radiation. When the balance is perturbed, a temperature change and hence a climate change of the Earth will occur. One possible perturbation of the balance is the CO2 greenhouse effect: when the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, this will reduce the loss of thermal infrared radiation to cold space. Earth will gain more heat and hence the temperature will rise. Another perturbation of the balance can occur through variation of the amount of energy emitted by the sun. When the sun emits more energy, this will directly cause a rise of temperature on Earth. For a long time scientists believed that the energy emitted by the sun was constant. The 'solar constant' is defined as the amount of solar energy received per unit surface at a distance of one astronomical unit (the average distance of Earth's orbit) from the sun. Accurate measurements of the variations of the solar constant have been made since 1978. From these we know that the solar constant varies approximately with the 11-year solar cycle observed in other solar phenomena, such as the occurrence of sunspots, dark spots that are sometimes visible on the solar surface. When a sunspot occurs on the sun, since the spot is dark, the radiation (light) emitted by the sun drops instantaneously. Oddly, periods of high solar activity, when a lot of sunspot numbers increase, correspond to periods when the average solar constant is high. This indicates that

Periodic Variation of the North-South Asymmetry of Solar Activity ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Abstract. We report here a study of various solar activity phenomena occurring in both north and south hemispheres of the Sun during solar cycles 8-23. In the study we have used sunspot data for the period 1832—. 1976, flare index data for the period 1936-1993, Hα flare data 1993-1998 and solar active prominences data ...

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryThere is growing interest in being able to predict the evolution in solar conditions on a better basis than past experience, which is necessarily limited. Two of the key features of the solar magnetic cycle are that the polar fields reverse just after the peak of each sunspot cycle and that the polar field that has accumulated by the time of each sunspot minimum is a good

The inconstant solar constant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willson, R.C.; Hudson, H.

1984-01-01

The Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) of the Solar Maximum Mission satellite measures the radiant power emitted by the sun in the direction of the earth and has worked flawlessly since 1980. The main motivation for ACRIM's use to measure the solar constant is the determination of the extent to which this quantity's variations affect earth weather and climate. Data from the solar minimum of 1986-1987 is eagerly anticipated, with a view to the possible presence of a solar cycle variation in addition to that caused directly by sunspots

Historical evidence concerning the Sun: interpretation of sunspot records during the telescopic and pretelescopic eras

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephenson, F.R.

1990-01-01

The value of sunspot observations in investigating solar activity trends - mainly on the centennial to millennial timescale - is considered in some detail. It is shown that although observations made since the mid-eighteenth century are in general very reliable indicators of solar activity, older data are of dubious quality and utility. The sunspot record in both the pretelescopic and early telescopic periods appears to be confused by serious data artefacts. (author)

The Evolution of the Solar Magnetic Field: A Comparative Analysis of Two Models

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, K. D.; Karak, B. B.; Upton, L.; Miesch, M. S.; Vierkens, O.

2017-12-01

Understanding the complexity of the solar magnetic cycle is a task that has plagued scientists for decades. However, with the help of computer simulations, we have begun to gain more insight into possible solutions to the plethora of questions inside the Sun. STABLE (Surface Transport and Babcock Leighton) is a newly developed 3D dynamo model that can reproduce features of the solar cycle. In this model, the tilted bipolar sunspots are formed on the surface (based on the toroidal field at the bottom of the convection zone) and then decay and disperse, producing the poloidal field. Since STABLE is a 3D model, it is able to solve the full induction equation in the entirety of the solar convection zone as well as incorporate many free parameters (such as spot depth and turbulent diffusion) which are difficult to observe. In an attempt to constrain some of these free parameters, we compare STABLE to a surface flux transport model called AFT (Advective Flux Transport) which solves the radial component of the magnetic field on the solar surface. AFT is a state-of-the-art surface flux transport model that has a proven record of being able to reproduce solar observations with great accuracy. In this project, we implement synthetic bipolar sunspots into both models, using identical surface parameters, and run the models for comparison. We demonstrate that the 3D structure of the sunspots in the interior and the vertical diffusion of the sunspot magnetic field play an important role in establishing the surface magnetic field in STABLE. We found that when a sufficient amount of downward magnetic pumping is included in STABLE, the surface magnetic field from this model becomes insensitive to the internal structure of the sunspot and more consistent with that of AFT.

How unprecedented a solar minimum was it?

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, C T; Jian, L K; Luhmann, J G

2013-05-01

The end of the last solar cycle was at least 3 years late, and to date, the new solar cycle has seen mainly weaker activity since the onset of the rising phase toward the new solar maximum. The newspapers now even report when auroras are seen in Norway. This paper is an update of our review paper written during the deepest part of the last solar minimum [1]. We update the records of solar activity and its consequent effects on the interplanetary fields and solar wind density. The arrival of solar minimum allows us to use two techniques that predict sunspot maximum from readings obtained at solar minimum. It is clear that the Sun is still behaving strangely compared to the last few solar minima even though we are well beyond the minimum phase of the cycle 23-24 transition.

The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance

Science.gov (United States)

Yndestad, Harald; Solheim, Jan-Erik

2017-02-01

Total solar irradiance (TSI) is the primary quantity of energy that is provided to the Earth. The properties of the TSI variability are critical for understanding the cause of the irradiation variability and its expected influence on climate variations. A deterministic property of TSI variability can provide information about future irradiation variability and expected long-term climate variation, whereas a non-deterministic variability can only explain the past. This study of solar variability is based on an analysis of two TSI data series, one since 1700 A.D. and one since 1000 A.D.; a sunspot data series since 1610 A.D.; and a solar orbit data series from 1000 A.D. The study is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis. First, the TSI data series are transformed into a wavelet spectrum. Then, the wavelet spectrum is transformed into an autocorrelation spectrum to identify stationary, subharmonic and coincidence periods in the TSI variability. The results indicate that the TSI and sunspot data series have periodic cycles that are correlated with the oscillations of the solar position relative to the barycenter of the solar system, which is controlled by gravity force variations from the large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. A possible explanation for solar activity variations is forced oscillations between the large planets and the solar dynamo. We find that a stationary component of the solar variability is controlled by the 12-year Jupiter period and the 84-year Uranus period with subharmonics. For TSI and sunspot variations, we find stationary periods related to the 84-year Uranus period. Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065.

Automated Sunspot Detection and Classification Using SOHO/MDI Imagery

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-01

to the geocentric North). 3. Focus and size of the solar disk is adjusted to fit an 18 cm diameter circle on the worksheet. 4. Analyst hand draws the...General Nature of the Sunspot,” The Astrophysical Journal 230, 905–913 (1979). 14. Wheatland, M. S., “A Bayesian Approach to Solar Flare Prediction,” The

Sunspot Cycle Prediction Using Multivariate Regression and Binary ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

49

Multivariate regression model has been derived based on the available cycles 1 .... The flare index correlates well with various parameters of the solar activity. ...... 32) Sabarinath A and Anilkumar A K 2011 A stochastic prediction model for the.

Latitude dependence of long-term geomagnetic activity and its solar wind drivers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Myllys, M. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Physics; Partamies, N. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland); University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen (Norway). Dept. of Arctic Geophysics; Juusola, L. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland)

2015-09-01

To validate the usage of global indices in studies of geomagnetic activity, we have examined the latitude dependence of geomagnetic variations in Fennoscandia and Svalbard from 1994 to 2010. Daily standard deviation (SD) values of the horizontal magnetic field have been used as a measure of the ground magnetic disturbance level.We found that the timing of the geomagnetic minimum depends on the latitude region: corresponding to the minimum of sunspot cycle 22 (in 1996), the geomagnetic minimum occurred between the geomagnetic latitudes 57-61 in 1996 and at the latitudes 64-67 in 1997, which are the average auroral oval latitudes. During sunspot cycle 23, all latitude regions experienced the minimum in 2009, a year after the sunspot minimum. These timing differences are due to the latitude dependence of the 10 s daily SD on the different solar wind drivers. In the latitude region of 64-67 , the impact of the high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) on the geomagnetic activity is the most pronounced compared to the other latitude groups, while in the latitude region of 57-61 , the importance of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) dominates. The geomagnetic activity maxima during ascending solar cycle phases are typically caused by CME activity and occur especially in the oval and sub-auroral regions. The strongest geomagnetic activity occurs during the descending solar cycle phases due to a mixture of CME and HSS activity. Closer to the solar minimum, less severe geomagnetic activity is driven by HSSs and mainly visible in the poleward part of the auroral region. According to our study, however, the timing of the geomagnetic activity minima (and maxima) in different latitude bands is different, due to the relative importance of different solar wind drivers at different latitudes.

Latitude dependence of long-term geomagnetic activity and its solar wind drivers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Myllys, M.

2015-01-01

To validate the usage of global indices in studies of geomagnetic activity, we have examined the latitude dependence of geomagnetic variations in Fennoscandia and Svalbard from 1994 to 2010. Daily standard deviation (SD) values of the horizontal magnetic field have been used as a measure of the ground magnetic disturbance level.We found that the timing of the geomagnetic minimum depends on the latitude region: corresponding to the minimum of sunspot cycle 22 (in 1996), the geomagnetic minimum occurred between the geomagnetic latitudes 57-61 in 1996 and at the latitudes 64-67 in 1997, which are the average auroral oval latitudes. During sunspot cycle 23, all latitude regions experienced the minimum in 2009, a year after the sunspot minimum. These timing differences are due to the latitude dependence of the 10 s daily SD on the different solar wind drivers. In the latitude region of 64-67 , the impact of the high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) on the geomagnetic activity is the most pronounced compared to the other latitude groups, while in the latitude region of 57-61 , the importance of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) dominates. The geomagnetic activity maxima during ascending solar cycle phases are typically caused by CME activity and occur especially in the oval and sub-auroral regions. The strongest geomagnetic activity occurs during the descending solar cycle phases due to a mixture of CME and HSS activity. Closer to the solar minimum, less severe geomagnetic activity is driven by HSSs and mainly visible in the poleward part of the auroral region. According to our study, however, the timing of the geomagnetic activity minima (and maxima) in different latitude bands is different, due to the relative importance of different solar wind drivers at different latitudes.

ON MAGNETIC ACTIVITY BAND OVERLAP, INTERACTION, AND THE FORMATION OF COMPLEX SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McIntosh, Scott W. [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); Leamon, Robert J., E-mail: mscott@hao.ucar.edu [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States)

2014-11-20

Recent work has revealed a phenomenological picture of the how the ∼11 yr sunspot cycle of the Sun arises. The production and destruction of sunspots is a consequence of the latitudinal-temporal overlap and interaction of the toroidal magnetic flux systems that belong to the 22 yr magnetic activity cycle and are rooted deep in the Sun's convective interior. We present a conceptually simple extension of this work, presenting a hypothesis on how complex active regions can form as a direct consequence of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction taking place in the solar interior. Furthermore, during specific portions of the sunspot cycle, we anticipate that those complex active regions may be particularly susceptible to profoundly catastrophic breakdown, producing flares and coronal mass ejections of the most severe magnitude.

A model of the solar cycle driven by the dynamo action of the global convection in the solar convection zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshimura, H.

1975-01-01

The dynamo equation which represents the longitudinally averaged magnetohydrodynamical action of the global convection influenced by the rotation in the solar convection zone is solved numerically to simulate the solar cycle as an initial boundary-value problem. The radial and latitudinal structure of the dynamo action is parametrized in accordance with the structure of the rotation, and of the global convection especially in such a way as to represent the presence of the two cells of the regeneration action in the radial direction in which the action has opposite signs, which is typical of the regeneration action of the global convection. A nonlinear process is included by assuming that part of the magnetic field energy is dissipated when the magnetic field strength exceeds some critical value; the formation of active regions and subsequent dissipations are thus simulated. By adjusting the parameters within a reasonable range, oscillatory solutions are obtained to simulate the solar cycle with the period of the right order of magnitude and with the patterns of evolution of the latitudinal distribution of the toroidal component of the magnetic field similar to the observed Butterfly Diagram of sunspots. The evolution of the latitudinal distribution of the radial component of the magnetic field shows patterns similar to the Butterfly Diagram, but having two branches of different polarity in each hemisphere. The development of the radial structure of the magnetic field associated with the solar cycle is presented. The importance of the poleward migrating branch of the Butterfly Diagram is emphasized in relation to the relative importance of the role of the latitudinal and radial shears of the differential rotation

Latitude and Power Characteristics of Solar Activity at the End of the Maunder Minimum

Science.gov (United States)

Ivanov, V. G.; Miletsky, E. V.

2017-12-01

Two important sources of information about sunspots in the Maunder minimum are the Spörer catalog (Spörer, 1889) and observations of the Paris observatory (Ribes and Nesme-Ribes, 1993), which cover in total the last quarter of the 17th and the first two decades of the 18th century. These data, in particular, contain information about sunspot latitudes. As we showed in (Ivanov et al., 2011; Ivanov and Miletsky, 2016), dispersions of sunspot latitude distributions are tightly related to sunspot indices, and we can estimate the level of solar activity in the past using a method which is not based on direct calculation of sunspots and weakly affected by loss of observational data. The latitude distributions of sunspots in the time of transition from the Maunder minimum to the regular regime of solar activity proved to be wide enough. It gives evidences in favor of, first, not very low cycle no.-3 (1712-1723) with the Wolf number in maximum W = 100 ± 50, and, second, nonzero activity in the maximum of cycle no.-4 (1700-1711) W = 60 ± 45. Therefore, the latitude distributions in the end of the Maunder minimum are in better agreement with the traditional Wolf numbers and new revisited indices of activity SN and GN (Clette et al., 2014; Svalgaard and Schatten, 2016) than with the GSN (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998); the latter provide much lower level of activity in this epoch.

Application of the Markov chain approximation to the sunspot observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onal, M.

1988-01-01

The positions of the 13,588 sunspot groups observed during the cycle of 1950-1960 at the Istanbul University Observatory have been corrected for the effect of differential rotation. The evolution probability of a sunspot group to the other one in the same region have been determined. By using the Markov chain approximation, the types of these groups and their transition probabilities during the following activity cycle (1950-1960), and the concentration of active regions during 1950-1960 have been estimated. The transition probabilities from the observations of the activity cycle 1960-1970 have been compared with the predicted transition probabilities and a good correlation has been noted. 5 refs.; 2 tabs

Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William F.; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

2016-01-01

In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.

The visibility function and its effect on the observed characteristics of sunspot groups. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopecky, M.; Kuklin, G.V.; Starkova, I.P.

1985-01-01

The paper is an introductory study to a series dealing with the visibility function, the function of foreshortening of sunspot group areas, and with the effect of these functions on the results of the statistical processing of observations, which has to be taken into account in interpreting the results. A ''diagram of observational conditions'' is described, which enables a number of statistical problems of sunspot groups on the rotating Sun to be solved by computer modelling or by graphical methods. Examples are given of the use of this diagram in studying the distribution of the observed lifetime of sunspot groups with a given actual lifetime, of the decrease in the number of sunspot groups towards the limb of the solar disc, of the east-west asymmetry of sunspot group appearance and disappearance. (author)

Solar magnetic field studies using the 12 micron emission lines. I - Quiet sun time series and sunspot slices

Science.gov (United States)

Deming, Drake; Boyle, Robert J.; Jennings, Donald E.; Wiedemann, Gunter

1988-01-01

The use of the extremely Zeeman-sensitive IR emission line Mg I, at 12.32 microns, to study solar magnetic fields. Time series observations of the line in the quiet sun were obtained in order to determine the response time of the line to the five-minute oscillations. Based upon the velocity amplitude and average period measured in the line, it is concluded that it is formed in the temperature minimum region. The magnetic structure of sunspots is investigated by stepping a small field of view in linear 'slices' through the spots. The region of penumbral line formation does not show the Evershed outflow common in photospheric lines. The line intensity is a factor of two greater in sunspot penumbrae than in the photosphere, and at the limb the penumbral emission begins to depart from optical thinness, the line source function increasing with height. For a spot near disk center, the radial decrease in absolute magnetic field strength is steeper than the generally accepted dependence.

SUNSPOT ROTATION AS A DRIVER OF MAJOR SOLAR ERUPTIONS IN THE NOAA ACTIVE REGION 12158

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vemareddy, P.; Ravindra, B. [Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Koramangala, Bangalore-560034 (India); Cheng, X., E-mail: vemareddy@iiap.res.in [School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing-210023 (China)

2016-09-20

We studied the development conditions of sigmoid structure under the influence of the magnetic non-potential characteristics of a rotating sunspot in the active region (AR) 12158. Vector magnetic field measurements from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager and coronal EUV observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly reveal that the erupting inverse-S sigmoid had roots at the location of the rotating sunspot. The sunspot rotates at a rate of 0°–5° h{sup −1} with increasing trend in the first half followed by a decrease. The time evolution of many non-potential parameters had a good correspondence with the sunspot rotation. The evolution of the AR magnetic structure is approximated by a time series of force-free equilibria. The non-linear force-free field magnetic structure around the sunspot manifests the observed sigmoid structure. Field lines from the sunspot periphery constitute the body of the sigmoid and those from the interior overlie the sigmoid, similar to a flux rope structure. While the sunspot was rotating, two major coronal mass ejection eruptions occurred in the AR. During the first (second) event, the coronal current concentrations were enhanced (degraded), consistent with the photospheric net vertical current; however, magnetic energy was released during both cases. The analysis results suggest that the magnetic connections of the sigmoid are driven by the slow motion of sunspot rotation, which transforms to a highly twisted flux rope structure in a dynamical scenario. Exceeding the critical twist in the flux rope probably leads to the loss of equilibrium, thus triggering the onset of the two eruptions.

THE MYSTERIOUS CASE OF THE SOLAR ARGON ABUNDANCE NEAR SUNSPOTS IN FLARES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doschek, G. A.; Warren, H. P.

2016-01-01

Recently we discussed an enhancement of the abundance of Ar xiv relative to Ca xiv near a sunspot during a flare, observed in spectra recorded by the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) on the Hinode spacecraft. The observed Ar xiv/Ca xiv ratio yields an argon/calcium abundance ratio seven times greater than expected from the photospheric abundance. Such a large abundance anomaly is unprecedented in the solar atmosphere. We interpreted this result as being due to an inverse first ionization potential (FIP) effect. In the published work, two lines of Ar xiv were observed, and one line was tentatively identified as an Ar xi line. In this paper, we report observing a similar enhancement in a full-CCD EIS flare spectrum in 13 argon lines that lie within the EIS wavelength ranges. The observed lines include two Ar xi lines, four Ar xiii lines, six Ar xiv lines, and one Ar xv line. The enhancement is far less than reported in Doschek et al. but exhibits similar morphology. The argon abundance is close to a photospheric abundance in the enhanced area, and the abundance could be photospheric. This enhancement occurs in association with a sunspot in a small area only a few arcseconds (1″ = about 700 km) in size. There is no enhancement effect observed in the normally high-FIP sulfur and oxygen line ratios relative to lines of low-FIP elements available to EIS. Calculations of path lengths in the strongest enhanced area in Doschek et al. indicate a depletion of low-FIP elements.

Vertical gradients of sunspot magnetic fields

Science.gov (United States)

Hagyard, M. J.; Teuber, D.; West, E. A.; Tandberg-Hanssen, E.; Henze, W., Jr.; Beckers, J. M.; Bruner, M.; Hyder, C. L.; Woodgate, B. E.

1983-01-01

The results of a Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) guest investigation to determine the vertical gradients of sunspot magnetic fields for the first time from coordinated observations of photospheric and transition-region fields are described. Descriptions are given of both the photospheric vector field of a sunspot, derived from observations using the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograph, and of the line-of-sight component in the transition region, obtained from the SMM Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter instrument. On the basis of these data, vertical gradients of the line-of-sight magnetic field component are calculated using three methods. It is found that the vertical gradient of Bz is lower than values from previous studies and that the transition-region field occurs at a height of approximately 4000-6000 km above the photosphere.

Observational Evidence of a Flux Rope within a Sunspot Umbra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guglielmino, Salvo L.; Zuccarello, Francesca [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia—Sezione Astrofisica, Università di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, I-95125 Catania (Italy); Romano, Paolo, E-mail: salvo.guglielmino@oact.inaf.it [INAF—Osservatorio Astrofisico di Catania, Via S. Sofia 78, I-95125 Catania (Italy)

2017-09-10

We observed an elongated filamentary bright structure inside the umbra of the big sunspot in active region NOAA 12529, which differs from the light bridges usually observed in sunspots for its morphology, magnetic configuration, and velocity field. We used observations taken with the Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite to characterize this feature. Its lifetime is 5 days, during which it reaches a maximum length of about 30″. In the maps of the vertical component of the photospheric magnetic field, a portion of the feature has a polarity opposite to that of the hosting sunspot. At the same time, in the entire feature the horizontal component of the magnetic field is about 2000 G, substantially stronger than in the surrounding penumbral filaments. Doppler velocity maps reveal the presence of both upward and downward plasma motions along the structure at the photospheric level. Moreover, looking at the chromospheric level, we noted that it is located in a region corresponding to the edge of a small filament that seems rooted in the sunspot umbra. Therefore, we interpreted the bright structure as the photospheric counterpart of a flux rope touching the sunspot and giving rise to penumbral-like filaments in the umbra.

Aurorae, sunspots and weather, mainly since A.D. 1200

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schove, D.J.

1981-01-01

Auroral records recieved for the Spectrum of Time project were used in 1955 to estimate sunspot activity and the dates maxima and minima back to 649 B.C. An additional set of rules has been developed and has made possible further improvements utilizing the separate auroral maxima associated with flares and coronal holes on the sun. A further set can now be given. 1) The time between sunspot maxima depends especially on the ratio of the amplitudes: the time between minima is high if the next cycle is very weak and low when the two consecutive cycles are both strong. 2) The time of rise is usually dependent on the strength of the next maxima, and the time of fall is low when a moderate cycle is followed by a strong one. (orig./WL)

Solar forcing of climate during the last millennium recorded in lake sediments from northern Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokfelt, Ulla; Muscheler, Raimund

2013-01-01

century. Periods of low solar activity are associated with minima in minerogenic material and vice versa. A comparison between the sunspot cycle and a long instrumental series of summer precipitation further reveals a link between the 11-year solar cycle and summer precipitation variability since around...... 1960. Solar minima are in this period associated with minima in summer precipitation, whereas the amount of summer precipitation increases during periods with higher solar activity. Our results suggest that the climate responds to both the 11-year solar cycle and to long-term changes in solar activity...... and in particular solar minima, causing dry conditions with resulting decreased runoff....

On two populations of sunspot groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuklin, G.V.

1980-01-01

The principal component method was applied studying the sunspot groups distribution in respect to the maximum area for the individual 11-year cycles 12 to 19 (Lopez Arroyo and Lahulla, 1974) and for the years 1900 to 1964 (Mandrykina, 1974). The existence of two populations of sunspot groups is confirmed. The variations of the importance parameter q, which determines the population shares, in the 80-, 22- and 11-year cycles are considered. The obtained maximal area distributions for populations I and II are approximated by linear combination of logarithmic-normal distributions, the subpopulations Ia, Ib, Ic by the most probable maximum areas of 22, 298 and 90 mvh, respectively, and the subpopulations IIa, IIb, IIc by the most probable maximal areas of 6, 142 and 754 mvh, respectively. The characteristic distinction between populations I and II is apparently the magnetic structure of the groups belonging to them (bipolar and unipolar ones). (author)

Does solar activity affect human happiness?

Science.gov (United States)

Kristoufek, Ladislav

2018-03-01

We investigate the direct influence of solar activity (represented by sunspot numbers) on human happiness (represented by the Twitter-based Happiness Index). We construct four models controlling for various statistical and dynamic effects of the analyzed series. The final model gives promising results. First, there is a statistically significant negative influence of solar activity on happiness which holds even after controlling for the other factors. Second, the final model, which is still rather simple, explains around 75% of variance of the Happiness Index. Third, our control variables contribute significantly as well: happiness is higher in no sunspots days, happiness is strongly persistent, there are strong intra-week cycles and happiness peaks during holidays. Our results strongly contribute to the topical literature and they provide evidence of unique utility of the online data.

Modeling the solar cycle change in nitric oxide in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuller-Rowell, T.J.

1993-01-01

Measurements from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) satellite have shown that low-latitude nitric oxide densities at 110 km decrease by about a factor of 8 from January 1982 to April 1985. This time period corresponds to the descending phase of the last solar cycle where the monthly smoothed sunspot number decreased from more than 150 to less than 25. In addition, nitric oxide was observed to vary by a factor of 2 over a solar rotation, during high solar activity. A one-dimensional, globally averaged model of the thermosphere and upper mesosphere has been used to study the height distribution of nitric oxide (NO) and its response to changes in the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV) through the solar cycle and over a solar rotation. The primary source of nitric oxide is the reaction of excited atomic nitrogen, N( 2 D), with molecular oxygen. The atomic nitrogen is created by a number of ion-neutral reactions and by direct dissociation of molecular nitrogen by photons and photoelectrons. The occurrence of the peak nitric oxide density at or below 115 km is a direct consequence of ionization and dissociation of molecular nitrogen by photoelectrons, which are produced by the solar flux below 30.0 nm (XUV). Nitric oxide is shown to vary over the solar cycle by a factor of 7 at low latitudes in the lower thermosphere E region, due to the estimated change in the solar EUV flux, in good agreement with the SME satellite observations. The NO density is shown to be strongly dependent on the temperature profile in the lower thermosphere and accounts for the difference between the current model and previous work. Wavelengths less than 1.8 nm have little impact on the NO profile. A factor of 3 change in solar flux below 5.0 nm at high solar activity produced a factor of 2 change in the peak NO density, consistent with SME observations over a solar rotation; this change also lowered the peak to 100 km, consistent with rocket data. 52 refs., 10 figs., 5 tabs

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Solar activity reconstructed for 3 millennia (Usoskin+, 2014)

Science.gov (United States)

Usoskin, I. G.; Hulot, G.; Gallet, Y.; Roth, R.; Licht, A.; Joos, F.; Kovaltsov, G. A.; Thebault, E.; Khokhlov, A.

2014-02-01

Indices of solar activity reconstructed from 14C using the m used in the paper. Two indices are provided - the sunspot number and the cosmic ray modulation potential, both with the 95% confidence intervals. The data sets are provided with decadal resolution, thus the individual solar cycles are not resolved. (2 data files).

On sunspots

CERN Document Server

Galilei, Galileo; Reeves, Eileen; Helden, Albert van

2010-01-01

Galileo's telescopic discoveries, and especially his observation of sunspots, caused great debate in an age when the heavens were thought to be perfect and unchanging. Christoph Scheiner, a Jesuit mathematician, argued that sunspots were planets or moons crossing in front of the Sun. Galileo, on the other hand, countered that the spots were on or near the surface of the Sun itself, and he supported his position with a series of meticulous observations and mathematical demonstrations that eventually convinced even his rival.  On Sunspots collects the correspondenc

Extreme Value Theory Applied to the Millennial Sunspot Number Series

Science.gov (United States)

Acero, F. J.; Gallego, M. C.; García, J. A.; Usoskin, I. G.; Vaquero, J. M.

2018-01-01

In this work, we use two decadal sunspot number series reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide data (14C in tree trunks, SN 14C, and 10Be in polar ice, SN 10Be) and the extreme value theory to study variability of solar activity during the last nine millennia. The peaks-over-threshold technique was used to compute, in particular, the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution for different thresholds. Its negative value implies an upper bound of the extreme SN 10Be and SN 14C timeseries. The return level for 1000 and 10,000 years were estimated leading to values lower than the maximum observed values, expected for the 1000 year, but not for the 10,000 year return levels, for both series. A comparison of these results with those obtained using the observed sunspot numbers from telescopic observations during the last four centuries suggests that the main characteristics of solar activity have already been recorded in the telescopic period (from 1610 to nowadays) which covers the full range of solar variability from a Grand minimum to a Grand maximum.

Estimate of the upper limit of amplitude of Solar Cycle No. 23

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silbergleit, V. M; Larocca, P. A [Departamento de Fisica, UBA (Argentina)

2001-07-01

AA* indices of values greater than 60 10{sup -9} Tesla are considered in order to characterize geomagnetic storms since the available series of these indices comprise the years from 1868 to 1998 (The longest existing interval of geomagnetic activity). By applying the precursor technique we have performed an analysis of the storm periods and the solar activity, obtaining a good correlation between the number of storms ({alpha})(characterized by the AA* indices) and the amplitudes of each solar cycle ({zeta}) and those of the next ({mu}). Using the multiple regression method applied to {alpha}=A+B{zeta} +C{mu}, the constants are calculated and the values found are: A=-33 {+-}18, B= 0.74{+-}0.13 y C= 0.56{+-}0.13. The present statistical method indicates that the current solar cycle (number 23) would have an upper limit of 202{+-}57 monthy mean sunspots. This value indicates that the solar activity would be high causing important effects on the Earth's environment. [Spanish] Se consideran los valores de los indices AA* de valor mayor que 60 10{sup -9} Tesla para caracterizar tormentas geomagneticas ya que las series disponibles de estos indices van desde 1868 hasta 1998 (el mas largo intervalo de la actividad geomagnetica existente). Aplicando la tecnica del precursor hemos realizado un analisis de los periodos de tormentas y la actividad solar obteniendo una buena correlacion entre el numero de tormentas ({alpha}) (caracterizado por los indices AA*) y las amplitudes de los ciclos solares corriente ({zeta}) y el proximo ({mu}). Usando el metodo de regresion multiple aplicado a {alpha}=A+B{zeta} +C{mu}, las consonantes resultaron: A=-33 {+-}18, B= 0.74{+-}0.13 y C= 0.56{+-}0.13. El metodo estadistico presentado indica que el ciclo actual (numero 23) tendria un pico de 202{+-} 57 manchas mensuales promedio. Este valor indica que la actividad solar seria alta produciendo importantes efectos en el medio ambiente terrestre.

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: Spotting Solar Cycle 25

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McIntosh, Scott W. [High Altitude Observatory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Leamon, Robert J., E-mail: mscott@ucar.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

2017-06-26

We present observational signatures of solar cycle 25 onset. Those signatures are visibly following a migratory path from high to low latitudes. They had starting points that are asymmetrically offset in each hemisphere at times that are 21–22 years after the corresponding, same polarity, activity bands of solar cycle 23 started their migration. Those bands define the so-called “extended solar cycle.” The four magnetic bands currently present in the system are approaching a mutually cancelling configuration, and solar minimum conditions are imminent. Further, using a tuned analysis of the daily band latitude-time diagnostics, we are able to utilize the longitudinal wave number (m = 1) variation in the data to more clearly reveal the presence of the solar cycle 25 bands. This clarification illustrates that prevalently active longitudes (different in each hemisphere) exist at mid-latitudes presently, lasting many solar rotations, that can be used for detailed study over the next several years with instruments like the Spectrograph on IRIS, the Spectropolarimeter on Hinode, and, when they come online, similar instruments on the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) as we watch those bands evolve following the cancellation of the solar cycle 24 activity bands at the equator late in 2019.

Records of auroral candidates and sunspots in Rikkokushi, chronicles of ancient Japan from early 7th century to 887

Science.gov (United States)

Hayakawa, Hisashi; Iwahashi, Kiyomi; Tamazawa, Harufumi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Kawamura, Akito Davis; Isobe, Hiroaki; Namiki, Katsuko; Shibata, Kazunari

2017-12-01

We present the results of the surveys on sunspots and auroral candidates in Rikkokushi, Japanese official histories from the early 7th century to 887, to review the solar and auroral activities. In total, we found one sunspot record and 13 auroral candidates in Rikkokushi. We then examine the records of the sunspots and auroral candidates, compare the auroral candidates with the lunar phase to estimate their reliability, and compare the records of the sunspots and auroral candidates with the contemporary total solar irradiance reconstructed from radioisotope data. We also identify the locations of the observational sites to review possible equatorward expansion of the auroral oval. These discussions suggest a major gap in auroral candidates from the late 7th to early 9th centuries, which includes the candidate of the grand minimum reconstructed from the radioisotope data, a similar tendency as the distributions of sunspot records in contemporary China, and a relatively high magnetic latitude of observational sites with a higher potential for observing aurorae more frequently than at present.

Solar Proton Events in Six Solar Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Vitaly, Ishkov

Based on materials the catalogs of solar proton events (SPE) in 1955 ‒ 2010 and list SPE for the current 24 solar cycle (SC) are examined confirmed SPE with E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 proton cm-2 s ster-1 (pfu) from Švestka and Simon’s (1955 - 1969) and 5 volumes Logachev’s (1970 - 2006) Catalogs of SPE. Historically thus it was formed, that the measurements of the proton fluxes began in the epoch “increased” solar activity (SC 18 ‒ 22), and includes transition period of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction from epoch “increased” to the epoch “lowered” solar activity (22 ‒ 23 SC). In current 24 SC ‒ first SC of the incipient epoch of “lowered” SA ‒ SPE realize under the new conditions, to that of previously not observed. As showed a study of five solar cycles with the reliable measurements of E> 10 MeV proton flux in excess of 1 pfu (1964 - 2013): ‒ a quantity of SPEs remained approximately identical in SC 20, 21, somewhat decreased in the initial solar cycle of the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (22), but it returned to the same quantity in, the base for the period of reconstruction, SC 23. ‒ Into the first 5 years of the each solar cycle development the rate of the proton generation events noticeably increased in 22 cycles of solar activity and returned to the average in cycles 23 and 24. ‒ Extreme solar flare events are achieved, as a rule, in the solar magnetic fields reconstruction period (August - September 1859; June 1991; October ‒ November 2003.), it is confirmed also for SPE: the extreme fluxes of solar protons (S4) except one (August 1972) were occurred in period of perestroika (SC 22 and 23). This can speak, that inside the epochs SA, when the generation of magnetic field in the convective zone works in the steady-state regime, extreme SPE are improbable. ‒ The largest in the fluxes of protons (S3, S4) occur in the complexes of the active regions flare events, where magnetic field more

Babcock Redux: An Amendment of Babcock's Schematic of the Sun's Magnetic Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Ronald L.; Cirtain, Jonathan W.; Sterling, Alphonse C.

2017-08-01

We amend Babcock's original scenario for the global dynamo process that sustains the Sun's 22-year magnetic cycle. The amended scenario fits post-Babcock observed features of the magnetic activity cycle and convection zone, and is based on ideas of Spruit & Roberts (1983, Nature, 304, 401) about magnetic flux tubes in the convection zone. A sequence of four schematic cartoons lays out the proposed evolution of the global configuration of the magnetic field above, in, and at the bottom of the convection zone through sunspot Cycle 23 and into Cycle 24. Three key elements of the amended scenario are: (1) as the net following-polarity magnetic field from the sunspot-region Ω-loop fields of an ongoing sunspot cycle is swept poleward to cancel and replace the opposite-polarity polar-cap field from the previous sunspot cycle, it remains connected to the ongoing sunspot cycle's toroidal source-field band at the bottom of the convection zone; (2) topological pumping by the convection zone's free convection keeps the horizontal extent of the poleward-migrating following-polarity field pushed to the bottom, forcing it to gradually cancel and replace old horizontal field below it that connects the ongoing-cycle source-field band to the previous-cycle polar-cap field; (3) in each polar hemisphere, by continually shearing the poloidal component of the settling new horizontal field, the latitudinal differential rotation low in the convection zone generates the next-cycle source-field band poleward of the ongoing-cycle band. The amended scenario is a more-plausible version of Babcock's scenario, and its viability can be explored by appropriate kinematic flux-transport solar-dynamo simulations. A paper giving a full description of our dynamo scenario is posted on arXiv (http://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05371).This work was funded by the Heliophysics Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate through the Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology Program and the Hinode

STUDY OF RAPID FORMATION OF A δ SUNSPOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 2012 JULY 2 C7.4 FLARE USING HIGH-RESOLUTION OBSERVATIONS OF THE NEW SOLAR TELESCOPE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Haimin; Liu Chang; Wang Shuo; Deng Na; Xu Yan; Jing Ju; Cao Wenda

2013-01-01

Rapid, irreversible changes of magnetic topology and sunspot structure associated with flares have been systematically observed in recent years. The most striking features include the increase of the horizontal field at the polarity inversion line (PIL) and the co-spatial penumbral darkening. A likely explanation of the above phenomenon is the back reaction to the coronal restructuring after eruptions: a coronal mass ejection carries the upward momentum while the downward momentum compresses the field lines near the PIL. Previous studies could only use low-resolution (above 1'') magnetograms and white-light images. Therefore, the changes are mostly observed for X-class flares. Taking advantage of the 0.''1 spatial resolution and 15 s temporal cadence of the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory, we report in detail the rapid formation of sunspot penumbra at the PIL associated with the C7.4 flare on 2012 July 2. It is unambiguously shown that the solar granulation pattern evolves to an alternating dark and bright fibril structure, the typical pattern of penumbra. Interestingly, the appearance of such a penumbra creates a new δ sunspot. The penumbral formation is also accompanied by the enhancement of the horizontal field observed using vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. We explain our observations as being due to the eruption of a flux rope following magnetic cancellation at the PIL. Subsequently, the re-closed arcade fields are pushed down toward the surface to form the new penumbra. NLFFF extrapolation clearly shows both the flux rope close to the surface and the overlying fields

Variability of the Lyman alpha flux with solar activity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lean, J.L.; Skumanich, A.

1983-01-01

A three-component model of the solar chromosphere, developed from ground based observations of the Ca II K chromospheric emission, is used to calculate the variability of the Lyman alpha flux between 1969 and 1980. The Lyman alpha flux at solar minimum is required in the model and is taken as 2.32 x 10 11 photons/cm 2 /s. This value occurred during 1975 as well as in 1976 near the commencement of solar cycle 21. The model predicts that the Lyman alpha flux increases to as much as 5 x 10 11 photons/cm 2 /s at the maximum of the solar cycle. The ratio of the average fluxes for December 1979 (cycle maximum) and July 1976 (cycle minimum) is 1.9. During solar maximum the 27-day solar rotation is shown to cause the Lyman alpha flux to vary by as much as 40% or as little as 5%. The model also shows that the Lyman alpha flux varies over intermediate time periods of 2 to 3 years, as well as over the 11-year sunspot cycle. We conclude that, unlike the sunspot number and the 10.7-cm radio flux, the Lyman alpha flux had a variability that was approximately the same during each of the past three cycles. Lyman alpha fluxes calculated by the model are consistent with measurements of the Lyman alpha flux made by 11 of a total of 14 rocket experiments conducted during the period 1969--1980. The model explains satisfactorily the absolute magnitude, long-term trends, and the cycle variability seen in the Lyman alpha irradiances by the OSO 5 satellite experiment. The 27-day variability observed by the AE-E satellite experiment is well reproduced. However, the magntidue of the AE-E 1 Lyman alpha irradiances are higher than the model calculations by between 40% and 80%. We suggest that the assumed calibration of the AE-E irradiances is in error

Interactions between nested sunspots. 1: The formation and breakup of a delta-type sunspot

Science.gov (United States)

Gaizauskas, V.; Harvey, K. L.; Proulx, M.

1994-01-01

We investigate a nest of sunspots in which three ordinary bipolar pairs of sunspots are aligned collinearly. The usual spreading action of the growing regions brings two spots of leading polarity together (p-p collision) and forces the leading and trailing spots of the two interior regions to overlap inot a single penumbra (p-f collision), thus forming a delta-spot. We examine digitally processed images from the Ottawa River Solar Observatory of two related events inside the delta-spot 5 days after the p-f collision begins: the violent disruption of the f-umbra, and the formation in less than a day of an hydrogen-alpha filament. The evolutionary changes in shape, area, relative motions, and brightness that we measure for each spot in the elongated nest are more compatible with Parker's (1979a) hypothesis of a sunspot as a cluster of flux tubes held together by downdrafts than with the notion of a sunspot as a monolithic plug of magnetic flux. From chromospheric developments over the delta-spot, we show that a shearing motion along a polarity inversion is more effective than convergence for creating a chromospheric filament. We invoke the release of an instability, triggered by a sequence of processes lasting 1 day or more, to explain the disruption of the f-umbra in this delta-spot. We show that the sequence is initiated when the colliding p-f umbrae reach a critical separation around 3200 +/- 200 km. We present a descriptive model in which the reconnected magnetic fields block vertical transport of convective heat flux just beneath the photosphere. We observe the formation of an unusual type of penumbra adjacent to the f-polarity portion of this delta-spot just before its disruption. A tangential penumbral band grows out of disordered matter connected to the f-umbra. We present this as evidence for the extrusion of umbral magnetic flux by thermal plumes rising through a loosely bound umbra.

Solar Open Flux Migration from Pole to Pole: Magnetic Field Reversal.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, G-H; Lin, C-H; Lee, L C

2017-08-25

Coronal holes are solar regions with low soft X-ray or low extreme ultraviolet intensities. The magnetic fields from coronal holes extend far away from the Sun, and thus they are identified as regions with open magnetic field lines. Coronal holes are concentrated in the polar regions during the sunspot minimum phase, and spread to lower latitude during the rising phase of solar activity. In this work, we identify coronal holes with outward and inward open magnetic fluxes being in the opposite poles during solar quiet period. We find that during the sunspot rising phase, the outward and inward open fluxes perform pole-to-pole trans-equatorial migrations in opposite directions. The migration of the open fluxes consists of three parts: open flux areas migrating across the equator, new open flux areas generated in the low latitude and migrating poleward, and new open flux areas locally generated in the polar region. All three components contribute to the reversal of magnetic polarity. The percentage of contribution from each component is different for different solar cycle. Our results also show that the sunspot number is positively correlated with the lower-latitude open magnetic flux area, but negatively correlated with the total open flux area.

Indexes and parameters of activity in solar-terrestrial physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minasyants, G.S.; Minasyants, T.M.

2005-01-01

The daily variation of different indexes and parameters of the solar-terrestrial physics at the 23 cycle were considered to find the most important from them for the forecast of geomagnetic activity. The validity of application of the Wolf numbers in quality of the characteristic of solar activity at sunspots is confirmed. The best geo-effective parameter in the arrival of the interplanetary shock from coronal mass ejection to an orbit of the Earth. (author)

Magnetic Properties of Solar Active Regions that Govern Large Solar Flares and Eruptions

Science.gov (United States)

Toriumi, Shin; Schrijver, Carolus J.; Harra, Louise; Hudson, Hugh S.; Nagashima, Kaori

2017-08-01

Strong flares and CMEs are often produced from active regions (ARs). In order to better understand the magnetic properties and evolutions of such ARs, we conducted statistical investigations on the SDO/HMI and AIA data of all flare events with GOES levels >M5.0 within 45 deg from the disk center for 6 years from May 2010 (from the beginning to the declining phase of solar cycle 24). Out of the total of 51 flares from 29 ARs, more than 80% have delta-sunspots and about 15% violate Hale’s polarity rule. We obtained several key findings including (1) the flare duration is linearly proportional to the separation of the flare ribbons (i.e., scale of reconnecting magnetic fields) and (2) CME-eruptive events have smaller sunspot areas. Depending on the magnetic properties, flaring ARs can be categorized into several groups, such as spot-spot, in which a highly-sheared polarity inversion line is formed between two large sunspots, and spot-satellite, where a newly-emerging flux next to a mature sunspot triggers a compact flare event. These results point to the possibility that magnetic structures of the ARs determine the characteristics of flares and CMEs. In the presentation, we will also show new results from the systematic flux emergence simulations of delta-sunspot formation and discuss the evolution processes of flaring ARs.

Long-Period Solar Variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

GAUTHIER,JOHN H.

2000-07-20

Terrestrial climate records and historical observations of the Sun suggest that the Sun undergoes aperiodic oscillations in radiative output and size over time periods of centuries and millenia. Such behavior can be explained by the solar convective zone acting as a nonlinear oscillator, forced at the sunspot-cycle frequency by variations in heliomagnetic field strength. A forced variant of the Lorenz equations can generate a time series with the same characteristics as the solar and climate records. The timescales and magnitudes of oscillations that could be caused by this mechanism are consistent with what is known about the Sun and terrestrial climate.

The dynamic relation between activities in the Northern and Southern solar hemispheres

Science.gov (United States)

Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G.

2016-12-01

The north-south (N/S) asymmetry of solar activity is the most pronounced phenomenon during 11-year cycle minimums. The goal of this work is to try to interpret the asymmetry as a result of the generalized synchronization of two dynamic systems. It is assumed that these systems are localized in two solar hemispheres. The evolution of these systems is considered in the topological embeddings of a sunspot area time series obtained with the use of the Takens algorithm. We determine the coupling measure and estimate it on the time series of daily sunspot areas. The measurement made it possible to interpret the asymmetry as an exchangeable dynamic equation, in which the roles of the driver-slave components change in time for two hemispheres.

Solar Indices - Sunspot Numbers

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of indices related to solar activity contributed by a number of national and private solar observatories located worldwide. This...

Coordination failure caused by sunspots

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beugnot, Julie; Gürgüç, Zeynep; Øvlisen, Frederik Roose

2012-01-01

on the efficient equilibrium, we consider sunspots as a potential reason for coordination failure. We conduct an experiment with a three player 2x2x2 game in which coordination on the efficient equilibrium is easy and should normally occur. In the control session, we find almost perfect coordination on the payoff......-dominant equilibrium, but in the sunspot treatment, dis-coordination is frequent. Sunspots lead to significant inefficiency, and we conclude that sunspots can indeed cause coordination failure....

XMM-Newton detects X-ray 'solar cycle' in distant star

Science.gov (United States)

2004-05-01

The Sun as observed by SOHO hi-res Size hi-res: 708 Kb The Sun as observed by SOHO The Sun as observed by the ESA/NASA SOHO observatory near the minimum of the solar cycle (left) and near its maximum (right). The signs of solar activity near the maximum are clearly seen. New XMM-Newton observations suggest that this behaviour may be typical of stars like the Sun, such as HD 81809 in the constellation Hydra. Solar flare - 4 November 2003 The huge flare produced on 4 November 2003 This image of the Sun, obtained by the ESA/NASA SOHO observatory, shows the powerful X-ray flare that took place on 4 November 2003. The associated coronal mass ejection, coming out of the Sun at a speed of 8.2 million kilometres per hour, hit the Earth several hours later and caused disruptions to telecommunication and power distribution lines. New XMM-Newton observations suggest that this behaviour may be typical of stars like the Sun, such as HD 81809 in the constellation Hydra. Since the time Galileo discovered sunspots, in 1610, astronomers have measured their number, size and location on the disc of the Sun. Sunspots are relatively cooler areas on the Sun that are observed as dark patches. Their number rises and falls with the level of activity of the Sun in a cycle of about 11 years. When the Sun is very active, large-scale phenomena take place, such as the flares and coronal mass ejections observed by the ESA/NASA solar observatory SOHO. These events release a large amount of energy and charged particles that hit the Earth and can cause powerful magnetic storms, affecting radio communications, power distribution lines and even our weather and climate. During the solar cycle, the X-ray emission from the Sun varies by a large amount (about a factor of 100) and is strongest when the cycle is at its peak and the surface of the Sun is covered by the largest number of spots. ESA's X-ray observatory, XMM-Newton, has now shown for the first time that this cyclic X-ray behaviour is common to

ASYMMETRIC SUNSPOT ACTIVITY AND THE SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE HELIOSPHERIC CURRENT SHEET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Y.-M.; Robbrecht, E.

2011-01-01

Observations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have suggested a statistical tendency for the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) to be shifted a few degrees southward of the heliographic equator during the period 1965-2010, particularly in the years near sunspot minimum. Using potential-field source-surface extrapolations and photospheric flux-transport simulations, we demonstrate that this southward displacement follows from Joy's law and the observed hemispheric asymmetry in the sunspot numbers, with activity being stronger in the southern (northern) hemisphere during the declining (rising) phase of cycles 20-23. The hemispheric asymmetry gives rise to an axisymmetric quadrupole field, whose equatorial zone has the sign of the leading-polarity flux in the dominant hemisphere; during the last four cycles, the polarity of the IMF around the equator thus tended to match that of the north polar field both before and after polar field reversal. However, large fluctuations are introduced by the nonaxisymmetric field components, which depend on the longitudinal distribution of sunspot activity in either hemisphere. Consistent with this model, the HCS showed an average northward displacement during cycle 19, when the 'usual' alternation was reversed and the northern hemisphere became far more active than the southern hemisphere during the declining phase of the cycle. We propose a new method for determining the north-south displacement of the HCS from coronal streamer observations.

Solar Cycle Variability Induced by Tilt Angle Scatter in a Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo Model

Science.gov (United States)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Miesch, Mark

2017-09-01

We present results from a three-dimensional Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo model that is sustained by the emergence and dispersal of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). On average, each BMR has a systematic tilt given by Joy’s law. Randomness and nonlinearity in the BMR emergence of our model produce variable magnetic cycles. However, when we allow for a random scatter in the tilt angle to mimic the observed departures from Joy’s law, we find more variability in the magnetic cycles. We find that the observed standard deviation in Joy’s law of {σ }δ =15^\\circ produces a variability comparable to the observed solar cycle variability of ˜32%, as quantified by the sunspot number maxima between 1755 and 2008. We also find that tilt angle scatter can promote grand minima and grand maxima. The time spent in grand minima for {σ }δ =15^\\circ is somewhat less than that inferred for the Sun from cosmogenic isotopes (about 9% compared to 17%). However, when we double the tilt scatter to {σ }δ =30^\\circ , the simulation statistics are comparable to the Sun (˜18% of the time in grand minima and ˜10% in grand maxima). Though the BL mechanism is the only source of poloidal field, we find that our simulations always maintain magnetic cycles even at large fluctuations in the tilt angle. We also demonstrate that tilt quenching is a viable and efficient mechanism for dynamo saturation; a suppression of the tilt by only 1°-2° is sufficient to limit the dynamo growth. Thus, any potential observational signatures of tilt quenching in the Sun may be subtle.

Solar cycles and climate variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chistyakov, V.F.

1990-01-01

Climate oscillations with 100-, 200- and 300-year periods are positively correlated with solar activity oscillations: the higher is solar activity the warmer is climate. According to geological data (varved clays) it is determined, that length of cycles has decreased from 23.4 up to 11 years during latter 2.5 billion years. 12-year cycles occurred during the great glaciation periods, while 10-year cycles occurred during interglaciation periods. It is suggested, that these oscillations are related with variations of the solar activity and luminescence

Ionosonde-based indices for improved representation of solar cycle variation in the International Reference Ionosphere model

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Steven; Bilitza, Dieter; Yiǧit, Erdal

2018-06-01

A new monthly ionospheric index, IGNS, is presented to improve the representation of the solar cycle variation of the ionospheric F2 peak plasma frequency, foF2. IGNS is calculated using a methodology similar to the construction of the "global effective sunspot number", IG, given by Liu et al. (1983) but selects ionosonde observations based on hemispheres. We incorporated the updated index into the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model and compared the foF2 model predictions with global ionospheric observations. We also investigated the influence of the underlying foF2 model on the IG index. IRI has two options for foF2 specification, the CCIR-66 and URSI-88 foF2 models. For the first time, we have calculated IG using URSI-88 and assessed the impact on model predictions. Through a retrospective model-data comparison, results show that the inclusion of the new monthly IGNS index in place of the current 12-month smoothed IG index reduce the foF2 model prediction errors by nearly a factor of two. These results apply to both day-time and nightime predictions. This is due to an overall improved prediction of foF2 seasonal and solar cycle variations in the different hemispheres.

Solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events and the related solar-terrestrial phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Guiming; Yang, Xingxing; Ding, Liuguang; Liu, Yonghua; Lu, Yangping; Chen, Minhao

2014-08-01

We investigated the solar cycle distribution of strong solar proton events (SPEs, peak flux ≥1000 pfu) and the solar-terrestrial phenomena associated with the strong SPEs during solar cycles 21-23. The results show that 37 strong SPEs were registered over this period of time, where 20 strong SPEs were originated from the super active regions (SARs) and 28 strong SPEs were accompanied by the X-class flares. Most strong SPEs were not associated with the ground level enhancement (GLE) event. Most strong SPEs occurred in the descending phases of the solar cycles. The weaker the solar cycle, the higher the proportion of strong SPES occurred in the descending phase of the cycle. The number of the strong SPEs that occurred within a solar cycle is poorly associated with the solar cycle size. The intensity of the SPEs is highly dependent of the location of their source regions, with the super SPEs (≥20000 pfu) distributed around solar disk center. A super SPE was always accompanied by a fast shock driven by the associated coronal mass ejection and a great geomagnetic storm. The source location of strongest GLE event is distributed in the well-connected region. The SPEs associated with super GLE events (peak increase rate ≥100%) which have their peak flux much lower than 10000 pfu were not accompanied by an intense geomagnetic storm.

Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

Science.gov (United States)

Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

2012-01-01

The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

Proton solar flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaposhnikova, E.F.

1979-01-01

The observations of proton solar flares have been carried out in 1950-1958 using the extrablackout coronograph of the Crimea astrophysical observatory. The experiments permit to determine two characteristic features of flares: the directed motion of plasma injection flux from the solar depths and the appearance of a shock wave moving from the place of the injection along the solar surface. The appearance of the shock wave is accompanied by some phenomena occuring both in the sunspot zone and out of it. The consistent flash of proton flares in the other groups of spots, the disappearance of fibres and the appearance of eruptive prominences is accomplished in the sunspot zone. Beyond the sunspot zone the flares occur above spots, the fibres disintegrate partially or completely and the eruptive prominences appear in the regions close to the pole

The Formation of a Sunspot Penumbra Sector in Active Region NOAA 12574

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qiaoling; Yan, Xiaoli; Wang, Jincheng; Kong, DeFang; Xue, Zhike; Yang, Liheng; Cao, Wenda

2018-04-01

We present a particular case of the formation of a penumbra sector around a developing sunspot in the active region NOAA 12574 on 2016 August 11 by using the high-resolution data observed by the New Solar Telescope at the Big Bear Solar Observatory and the data acquired by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. Before the new penumbra sector formed, the developing sunspot already had two umbrae with some penumbral filaments. The penumbra sector gradually formed at the junction of two umbrae. We found that the formation of the penumbra sector can be divided into two stages. First, during the initial stage of penumbral formation, the region where the penumbra sector formed always appeared blueshifted in a Dopplergram. The area, mean transverse magnetic field strength, and total magnetic flux of the umbra and penumbra sector all increased with time. The initial penumbral formation was associated with magnetic emergence. Second, when the penumbra sector appeared, the magnetic flux and area of the penumbra sector increased after the umbra’s magnetic flux and area decreased. These results indicate that the umbra provided magnetic flux for penumbral development after the penumbra sector appeared. We also found that the newly formed penumbra sector was associated with sunspot rotation. Based on these findings, we suggest that the penumbra sector was the result of the emerging flux that was trapped in the photosphere at the initial stage of penumbral formation, and when the rudimentary penumbra formed, the penumbra sector developed at the cost of the umbra.

Variations of Solar Non-axisymmetric Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Gyenge, N.; Baranyi, T.; Ludmány, A.

The temporal behaviour of solar active longitudes has been examined by using two sunspot catalogues, the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) and the Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD). The time-longitude diagrams of the activity distribution reveal the preferred longitudinal zones and their migration with respect to the Carrington frame. The migration paths outline a set of patterns in which the activity zone has alternating prograde/retrograde angular velocities with respect to the Carrington rotation rate. The time profiles of these variations can be described by a set of successive parabolae. Two similar migration paths have been selected from these datasets, one northern path during cycles 21 - 22 and one southern path during cycles 13 - 14, for closer examination and comparison of their dynamical behaviours. The rates of sunspot emergence exhibited in both migration paths similar periodicities, close to 1.3 years. This behaviour may imply that the active longitude is connected to the bottom of convection zone.

INTERNAL-CYCLE VARIATION OF SOLAR DIFFERENTIAL ROTATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, K. J.; Xie, J. L.; Shi, X. J.

2013-01-01

The latitudinal distributions of the yearly mean rotation rates measured by Suzuki in 1998 and 2012 and Pulkkinen and Tuominen in 1998 are utilized to investigate internal-cycle variation of solar differential rotation. The rotation rate at the solar equator seems to have decreased since cycle 10 onward. The coefficient B of solar differential rotation, which represents the latitudinal gradient of rotation, is found to be smaller in the several years after the minimum of a solar cycle than in the several years after the maximum time of the cycle, and it peaks several years after the maximum time of the solar cycle. The internal-cycle variation of the solar rotation rates looks similar in profile to that of the coefficient B. A new explanation is proposed to address such a solar-cycle-related variation of the solar rotation rates. Weak magnetic fields may more effectively reflect differentiation at low latitudes with high rotation rates than at high latitudes with low rotation rates, and strong magnetic fields may more effectively repress differentiation at relatively low latitudes than at high latitudes. The internal-cycle variation is inferred as the result of both the latitudinal migration of the surface torsional pattern and the repression of strong magnetic activity in differentiation.

Successive X-class Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections Driven by Shearing Motion and Sunspot Rotation in Active Region NOAA 12673

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, X. L.; Wang, J. C.; Pan, G. M.; Kong, D. F.; Xue, Z. K.; Yang, L. H.; Li, Q. L.; Feng, X. S.

2018-03-01

We present a clear case study on the occurrence of two successive X-class flares, including a decade-class flare (X9.3) and two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) triggered by shearing motion and sunspot rotation in active region NOAA 12673 on 2017 September 6. A shearing motion between the main sunspots with opposite polarities began on September 5 and lasted even after the second X-class flare on September 6. Moreover, the main sunspot with negative polarity rotated around its umbral center, and another main sunspot with positive polarity also exhibited a slow rotation. The sunspot with negative polarity at the northwest of the active region also began to rotate counterclockwise before the onset of the first X-class flare, which is related to the formation of the second S-shaped structure. The successive formation and eruption of two S-shaped structures were closely related to the counterclockwise rotation of the three sunspots. The existence of a flux rope is found prior to the onset of two flares by using nonlinear force-free field extrapolation based on the vector magnetograms observed by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Image. The first flux rope corresponds to the first S-shaped structures mentioned above. The second S-shaped structure was formed after the eruption of the first flux rope. These results suggest that a shearing motion and sunspot rotation play an important role in the buildup of the free energy and the formation of flux ropes in the corona that produces solar flares and CMEs.

The chromosphere above a δ-sunspot in the presence of fan-shaped jets

Science.gov (United States)

Robustini, Carolina; Leenaarts, Jorrit; de la Cruz Rodríguez, Jaime

2018-01-01

Context. Delta-sunspots are known to be favourable locations for fast and energetic events like flares and coronal mass ejections. The photosphere of this sunspot type has been thoroughly investigated in the past three decades. The atmospheric conditions in the chromosphere are not as well known, however. Aims: This study is focused on the chromosphere of a δ-sunspot that harbours a series of fan-shaped jets in its penumbra. The aim of this study is to establish the magnetic field topology and the temperature distribution in the presence of jets in the photosphere and the chromosphere. Methods: We use data from the Swedish 1m Solar Telescope (SST) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We invert the spectropolarimetric Fe I 6302 Å and Ca II 8542 Å data from the SST using the non-LTE inversion code NICOLE to estimate the magnetic field configuration, temperature, and velocity structure in the chromosphere. Results: A loop-like magnetic structure is observed to emerge in the penumbra of the sunspot. The jets are launched from this structure. Magnetic reconnection between this emerging field and the pre-existing vertical field is suggested by hot plasma patches on the interface between the two fields. The height at which the reconnection takes place is located between log τ500 = -2 and log τ500 = -3. The magnetic field vector and the atmospheric temperature maps show a stationary configuration during the whole observation. Movies associated to Figs. 3-5 are available at http://www.aanda.org

Solar activity simulation and forecast with a flux-transport dynamo

Science.gov (United States)

Macario-Rojas, Alejandro; Smith, Katharine L.; Roberts, Peter C. E.

2018-06-01

We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy for solar activity prediction. Extended research using this proxy has been impeded by reduced observational data record only available from 1976. However, there is a recognised need for a solar dynamo model with ample verification over various activity scenarios to improve theoretical standards. The present study aims to explore the use of helioseismology data and reconstructed solar polar magnetic field, to foster the development of robust solar activity forecasts. The research is based on observationally inferred differential rotation morphology, as well as observed and reconstructed polar field using artificial neural network methods via the hemispheric sunspot areas record. Results show consistent reproduction of historical solar activity trends with enhanced results by introducing a precursor rise time coefficient. A weak solar cycle 25, with slow rise time and maximum activity -14.4% (±19.5%) with respect to the current cycle 24 is predicted.

What can the annual 10Be solar activity reconstructions tell us about historic space weather?

Science.gov (United States)

Barnard, Luke; McCracken, Ken G.; Owens, Mat J.; Lockwood, Mike

2018-04-01

Context: Cosmogenic isotopes provide useful estimates of past solar magnetic activity, constraining past space climate with reasonable uncertainty. Much less is known about past space weather conditions. Recent advances in the analysis of 10Be by McCracken & Beer (2015, Sol Phys 290: 305-3069) (MB15) suggest that annually resolved 10Be can be significantly affected by solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes. This poses a problem, and presents an opportunity, as the accurate quantification of past solar magnetic activity requires the SEP effects to be determined and isolated, whilst doing so might provide a valuable record of past SEP fluxes. Aims: We compare the MB15 reconstruction of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), with two independent estimates of the HMF derived from sunspot records and geomagnetic variability. We aim to quantify the differences between the HMF reconstructions, and speculate on the origin of these differences. We test whether the differences between the reconstructions appear to depend on known significant space weather events. Methods: We analyse the distributions of the differences between the HMF reconstructions. We consider how the differences vary as a function of solar cycle phase, and, using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we compare the distributions under the two conditions of whether or not large space weather events were known to have occurred. Results: We find that the MB15 reconstructions are generally marginally smaller in magnitude than the sunspot and geomagnetic HMF reconstructions. This bias varies as a function of solar cycle phase, and is largest in the declining phase of the solar cycle. We find that MB15's excision of the years with very large ground level enhancement (GLE) improves the agreement of the 10Be HMF estimate with the sunspot and geomagnetic reconstructions. We find no statistical evidence that GLEs, in general, affect the MB15 reconstruction, but this analysis is limited by having too few samples. We do find

Egeson’s (George’s) transtridecadal weather cycling and sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Halberg, F.; Cornélissen, G.; Bernhardt, K.-H.; Sampson, M.; Schwartzkopff, O.; Sonntag, D.

2011-01-01

In the late 19th century, Charles Egeson, a map compiler at the Sydney Observatory, carried out some of the earliest research on climatic cycles, linking them to about 33-year cycles in solar activity, and predicted that a devastating drought would strike Australia at the turn of the 20th century. Eduard Brückner and William J. S. Lockyer, who, like Egeson, found similar cycles, with notable exceptions, are also, like the map compiler, mostly forgotten. But the transtridecadal cycles are important in human physiology, economics and other affairs and are particularly pertinent to ongoing discusions of climate change. Egeson’s publication of daily weather reports preceded those officially recorded. Their publication led to clashes with his superiors and his personal life was marked by run-ins with the law and, possibly, an implied, but not proven, confinement in an insane asylum and premature death. We here track what little is known of Egeson’s life and of his bucking of the conventional scientific wisdom of his time with tragic results. PMID:21547003

Estudios de clima espacial basados en observaciones solares históricas: recientes progresos y perspectivas

Science.gov (United States)

Vaquero, J. M.

During the last decades, an effort has been made to improve the sunspot number time-series, one of the more useful data set for space climate stud- ies, using historical solar observations. Moreover, not only the sunspot number can be studied using these early solar records. During the last years, historical sources (i.e., sunspot drawings and solar radius measurements) have been also used to study the space climate. Here, I review some recent progress on these issues. In a hand, there are some periods with very few sunspot records and sunspot numbers are not so reliable in these intervals. I discuss the quality of sunspot records during these interesting periods: (a) 1610-1645, (b) 1721-1761, and (c) 1779-1795. On the other hand, I dis- cuss the reliability of early sunspot drawings, sunspot position data, and solar diameter determinations to study long-term variations in our Sun. Fi- nally, some information on historical documents from Argentina and Chile related with space climate are summarised. FULL TEXT IN SPANISH

CHROMOSPHERIC MASS MOTIONS AND INTRINSIC SUNSPOT ROTATIONS FOR NOAA ACTIVE REGIONS 10484, 10486, AND 10488 USING ISOON DATA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hardersen, Paul S.; Balasubramaniam, K. S.; Shkolyar, Svetlana

2013-01-01

This work utilizes Improved Solar Observing Optical Network continuum (630.2 nm) and Hα (656.2 nm) data to: (1) detect and measure intrinsic sunspot rotations occurring in the photosphere and chromosphere, (2) identify and measure chromospheric filament mass motions, and (3) assess any large-scale photospheric and chromospheric mass couplings. Significant results from 2003 October 27-29, using the techniques of Brown et al., indicate significant counter-rotation between the two large sunspots in NOAA AR 10486 on October 29, as well as discrete filament mass motions in NOAA AR 10484 on October 27 that appear to be associated with at least one C-class solar flare

Semi-annual Sq-variation in solar activity cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Pogrebnoy, V.; Malosiev, T.

The peculiarities of semi-annual variation in solar activity cycle have been studied. The data from observatories having long observational series and located in different latitude zones were used. The following observatories were selected: Huancayo (magnetic equator), from 1922 to 1959; Apia (low latitudes), from 1912 to 1961; Moscow (middle latitudes), from 1947 to 1965. Based on the hourly values of H-components, the average monthly diurnal amplitudes (a difference between midday and midnight values), according to five international quiet days, were computed. Obtained results were compared with R (relative sunspot numbers) in the ranges of 0-30R, 40-100R, and 140-190R. It was shown, that the amplitude of semi-annual variation increases with R, from minimum to maximum values, on average by 45%. At equatorial Huancayo observatory, the semi-annual Sq(H)-variation appears especially clearly: its maximums take place at periods of equinoxes (March-April, September-October), and minimums -- at periods of solstices (June-July, December-January). At low (Apia observatory) and middle (Moscow observatory) latitudes, the character of semi-annual variation is somewhat different: it appears during the periods of equinoxes, but considerably less than at equator. Besides, with the growth of R, semi-annual variation appears against a background of annual variation, in the form of second peaks (maximum in June). At observatories located in low and middle latitudes, second peaks become more appreciable with an increase of R (March-April and September-October). During the periods of low solar activity, they are insignificant. This work has been carried out with the support from International Scientific and Technology Center (Project #KR-214).

Molecular Diagnostics of the Internal Structure of Starspots and Sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Afram, N.; Berdyugina, S. V.; Fluri, D. M.; Solanki, S. K.; Lagg, A.; Petit, P.; Arnaud, J.

2006-12-01

We have analyzed the usefulness of molecules as a diagnostic tool for studying solar and stellar magnetism with the molecular Zeeman and Paschen-Back effects. In the first part we concentrate on molecules that are observed in sunspots such as MgH and TiO. We present calculated molecular line profiles obtained by assuming magnetic fields of 2-3 kG and compare these synthetic Stokes profiles with spectro-polarimetric observations in sunspots. The good agreement between the theory and observations allows us to turn our attention in the second part to starspots to gain insight into their internal structure. We investigate the temperature range in which the selected molecules can serve as indicators for magnetic fields on highly active cool stars and compare synthetic Stokes profiles with our recent observations.

The reconciliation of an F-region irregularity model with sunspot-cycle variations in spread-F occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singleton, D.G.

1974-11-01

A recently proposed means of combining models of ionospheric F-layer peak electron density and irregularity incremental electron density (ΔN) so as to simulate the global occurrence probability of the frequency spreading component of spread-F is discussed. This procedure is then used to model experimental spread-F occurrence results. It is found possible to readily simulate the sunspot-maximum results, independently of season, with only small adjustments to the amplitudes of the empirical expressions used to ΔN in the several latitude regimes. However, at sunspot minimum and for each season, the ΔN model requires modification in the equatorial and mid-latitude regions of high irregularity incidence, before successful simulations of the spread-F data can be obtained. These modifications, which include a broadening of the equatorial region and a polewards shift to the mid-latitude region with decreasing sunspot number, are discussed in detail. It is concluded that the scintillation data base, from which the original ΔN model derives, is not sufficiently representative with regard to sunspot number and magnetic index. The use of the spread-F adaptation of the ΔN model, as well as its original scintillation version, to rectify these failings of the ΔN model are also discussed. (author)

Diode laser heterodyne observations of silicon monoxide in sunspots - A test of three sunspot models

Science.gov (United States)

Glenar, D. A.; Deming, D.; Jennings, D. E.; Kostiuk, T.; Mumma, M. J.

1983-01-01

Absorption features from the 8 micron SiO fundamental (upsilon = 1-0) and hot bands (upsilon = 2-1) have been observed in sunspots at sub-Doppler resolution using a ground-based tunable diode laser heterodyne spectrometer. The observed line widths suggest an upper limit of 0.5 km/s for the microturbulent velocity in sunspot umbrae. Since the silicon monoxide abundance is very sensitive to sunspot temperature, the measured equivalent widths permit an unambiguous determination of the temperature-pressure relation in the upper layers of the umbral atmosphere. In the region of SiO line formation (log P sub g = 3.0-4.5), the results support the sunspot model suggested by Stellmacher and Wiehr (1970).

The Earth's Interaction With the Sun Over the Millennia From Analyses of Historical Sunspot, Auroral and Climate Records

Science.gov (United States)

Yau, K.

2001-12-01

A prolonged decrease in the Sun's irradiance during the Maunder Minimum has been proposed as a cause of the Little Ice Age ({ca} 1600-1800). Eddy [{Science} {192}, 1976, 1189] made this suggestion after noting that very few sunspots were observed from 1645 to 1715, indicative of a weakened Sun. Pre-telescopic Oriental sunspot records go back over 2200 years. Periods when no sunspots were seen have been documented by, {eg}, Clark [{Astron} {7}, 2/1979, 50]. Abundances of C 14 in tree rings and Be10 in ice cores are also good indicators of past solar activity. These isotopes are produced by cosmic rays high in the atmosphere. When the Sun is less active more of them are made and deposited at ground level. There is thus a strong {negative} correlation between their abundances and sunspot counts. Minima of solar activity in tree rings and a south polar ice core have been collated by, {eg}, Bard [{Earth Planet Sci Lett} {150} 1997, 453]; and show striking correspondence with periods when no sunspots were seen, centered at {ca} 900, 1050, 1500, 1700. Pang and Yau [{Eos} {79}, #45, 1998, F149] investigated the Medieval Minimum at 700, using in addition the frequency of auroral sighting7s, a good indicator of solar activity too [Yau, PhD thesis, 1988]; and found that the progression of minima in solar activity goes back to 700. Auroral frequency, C 14 and Be 10 concentrations are also affected by variations in the geomagnetic field. Deposition changes can also influence C 14 and Be 10 abundances. Sunspot counts are thus the only true indicator of solar activity. The Sun's bolometric variations (-0.3% for the Maunder Minimum) can contribute to climatic changes (\\0.5° C for the Little Ice Age)[{eg}, Lean, {GRL} {22}, 1995, 3195]. For times with no thermometer data, temperature can be estimated from, {eg}, Oxygen 18 isotopic abundance in ice cores, which in turn depends on the temperature of the ocean water it evaporated from. We have linked the Medieval Minimum to the cold

A Test of the Active-Day Fraction Method of Sunspot Group Number Calibration: Dependence on the Level of Solar Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Willamo, T.; Usoskin, I. G.; Kovaltsov, G. A.

2018-04-01

The method of active-day fraction (ADF) was proposed recently to calibrate different solar observers to standard observational conditions. The result of the calibration may depend on the overall level of solar activity during the observational period. This dependency is studied quantitatively using data of the Royal Greenwich Observatory by formally calibrating synthetic pseudo-observers to the full reference dataset. It is shown that the sunspot group number is precisely estimated by the ADF method for periods of moderate activity, may be slightly underestimated by 0.5 - 1.5 groups ({≤} 10%) for strong and very strong activity, and is strongly overestimated by up to 2.5 groups ({≤} 30%) for weak-to-moderate activity. The ADF method becomes inapplicable for the periods of grand minima of activity. In general, the ADF method tends to overestimate the overall level of activity and to reduce the long-term trends.

The Origin and Dynamics of Solar Magnetism

CERN Document Server

Thompson, M. J; Culhane, J. L; Nordlund, Å; Solanki, S. K; Zahn, J.-P

2009-01-01

The articles collected in this volume present all aspects of solar magnetism: from its origin in the solar dynamo to its evolution and dynamics that create the variability of solar phenomena, its well-known 11-year activity cycle that leads to the ever-changing pattern of sunspots and active regions on the Sun. Several contributions deal with the solar dynamo, the driver of many solar phenomena. Other contributions treat the transport and emergence of the magnetic flux through the outer layers of the Sun. The coupling of magnetic fields from the surface to the solar corona and beyond is also described, together with current studies on the predictability of solar activity. This book is aimed at researchers and graduate students working in solar physics and space science. It provides a full review of our current understanding of solar magnetism by the foremost experts in the field.

EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR CORONA DURING THE MINIMUM BETWEEN SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nuevo, Federico A.; Vásquez, Alberto M.; Huang Zhenguang; Frazin, Richard; Manchester, Ward B. IV; Jin Meng

2013-01-01

The combination of differential emission measure tomography with extrapolation of the photospheric magnetic field allows determination of the electron density and electron temperature along individual magnetic field lines. This is especially useful in quiet-Sun (QS) plasmas where individual loops cannot otherwise be identified. In Paper I, this approach was applied to study QS plasmas during Carrington rotation (CR) 2077 at the minimum between solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24. In that work, two types of QS coronal loops were identified: ''up'' loops in which the temperature increases with height, and ''down'' loops in which the temperature decreases with height. While the first ones were expected, the latter ones were a surprise and, furthermore, were found to be ubiquitous in the low-latitude corona. In the present work, we extend the analysis to 11 CRs around the last solar minimum. We found that the ''down'' population, always located at low latitudes, was maximum at the time when the sunspot number was minimum, and the number of down loops systematically increased during the declining phase of SC-23 and diminished during the rising phase of SC-24. ''Down'' loops are found to have systematically larger values of β than do ''up'' loops. These discoveries are interpreted in terms of excitation of Alfvén waves in the photosphere, and mode conversion and damping in the low corona

A second chance for Solar Max

Science.gov (United States)

Maran, S. P.; Woodgate, B. E.

1984-01-01

Using NASA's Tracking and Data Relay Satellite as a communications link, astronomers are able to receive scans from the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite immediately and regularly at the Goddard Space Flight Center. This major operational improvement permits the examination of SMM imagery and spectra as they arrive, as well as the formulation of future observational sequences on the basis of the solar activity in progress. Attention is given to aspects of the sun that change in the course of the 11-year sunspot cycle's movement from maximum to minimum. Proof has been obtained by means of SMM for the near-simultaneity of X-ray and UV bursts at flare onset.

Sudden transitions and grand variations in the solar dynamo, past and future☆

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

De Jager Cornelis

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The solar dynamo is the exotic dance of the sun’s two major magnetic field components, the poloidal and the toroidal, interacting in anti-phase. On the basis of new data on the geomagnetic aa index, we improve our previous forecast of the properties of the current Schwabe cycle #24. Its maximum will occur in 2013.5 and the maximum sunspot number Rmax will then be 62 ± 12, which is within the bounds of our earlier forecasts. The subsequent analysis, based on a phase diagram, which is a diagram showing the relation between maximum sunspot numbers and minimum geomagnetic aa index values leads to the conclusion that a new Grand Episode in solar activity has started in 2008. From the study of the natural oscillations in the sunspot number time series, as found by an analysis based on suitable wavelet base functions, we predict that this Grand Episode will be of the Regular Oscillations type, which is the kind of oscillations that also occurred between 1724 and 1924. Previous expectations of a Grand (Maunder-type Minimum of solar activity cannot be supported. We stress the significance of the Hallstatt periodicity for determining the character of the forthcoming Grand Episodes. No Grand Minimum is expected to occur during the millennium that has just started.

Solar cycle variations in mesospheric carbon monoxide

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae N.; Wu, Dong L.; Ruzmaikin, Alexander; Fontenla, Juan

2018-05-01

As an extension of Lee et al. (2013), solar cycle variation of carbon monoxide (CO) is analyzed with MLS observation, which covers more than thirteen years (2004-2017) including maximum of solar cycle 24. Being produced primarily by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, the variations of the mesospheric CO concentration are largely driven by the solar cycle modulated ultraviolet (UV) variation. This solar signal extends down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex, showing a time lag that is consistent with the average descent velocity. To characterize a global distribution of the solar impact, MLS CO is correlated with the SORCE measured total solar irradiance (TSI) and UV. As high as 0.8 in most of the polar mesosphere, the linear correlation coefficients between CO and UV/TSI are more robust than those found in the previous work. The photochemical contribution explains most (68%) of the total variance of CO while the dynamical contribution accounts for 21% of the total variance at upper mesosphere. The photochemistry driven CO anomaly signal is extended in the tropics by vertical mixing. The solar cycle signal in CO is further examined with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) 3.5 simulation by implementing two different modeled Spectral Solar Irradiances (SSIs): SRPM 2012 and NRLSSI. The model simulations underestimate the mean CO amount and solar cycle variations of CO, by a factor of 3, compared to those obtained from MLS observation. Different inputs of the solar spectrum have small impacts on CO variation.

Self-affinity and nonextensivity of sunspots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moret, M.A.

2014-01-01

In this paper we study the time series of sunspots by using two different approaches, analyzing its self-affine behavior and studying its distribution. The long-range correlation exponent α has been calculated via Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and the power law vanishes to values greater than 11 years. On the other hand, the distribution of the sunspots obeys a q-exponential decay that suggests a non-extensive behavior. This observed characteristic seems to take an alternative interpretation of the sunspots dynamics. The present findings suggest us to propose a dynamic model of sunspots formation based on a nonlinear Fokker–Planck equation. Therefore its dynamic process follows the generalized thermostatistical formalism.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL EVOLUTION OF SOLAR WIND DURING SOLAR CYCLES 22–24

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manoharan, P. K.

2012-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of three-dimensional evolution of solar wind density turbulence and speed at various levels of solar activity between solar cycles 22 and 24. The solar wind data used in this study have been obtained from the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements made at the Ooty Radio Telescope, operating at 327 MHz. Results show that (1) on average, there was a downward trend in density turbulence from the maximum of cycle 22 to the deep minimum phase of cycle 23; (2) the scattering diameter of the corona around the Sun shrunk steadily toward the Sun, starting from 2003 to the smallest size at the deepest minimum, and it corresponded to a reduction of ∼50% in the density turbulence between the maximum and minimum phases of cycle 23; (3) the latitudinal distribution of the solar wind speed was significantly different between the minima of cycles 22 and 23. At the minimum phase of solar cycle 22, when the underlying solar magnetic field was simple and nearly dipole in nature, the high-speed streams were observed from the poles to ∼30° latitudes in both hemispheres. In contrast, in the long-decay phase of cycle 23, the sources of the high-speed wind at both poles, in accordance with the weak polar fields, occupied narrow latitude belts from poles to ∼60° latitudes. Moreover, in agreement with the large amplitude of the heliospheric current sheet, the low-speed wind prevailed in the low- and mid-latitude regions of the heliosphere. (4) At the transition phase between cycles 23 and 24, the high levels of density and density turbulence were observed close to the heliospheric equator and the low-speed solar wind extended from the equatorial-to-mid-latitude regions. The above results in comparison with Ulysses and other in situ measurements suggest that the source of the solar wind has changed globally, with the important implication that the supply of mass and energy from the Sun to the interplanetary space has been significantly reduced

Solar cycle modulation of ENSO variability

Science.gov (United States)

Kodera, Kunihiko; Thiéblemont, Rémi

2016-04-01

Inspired by the work of Labitzke and van Loon on solar/QBO modulation in the stratosphere, Barnett (1989) conducted an investigation on the relationship between the the biannual component of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the solar activity. He found that the amplitude of biannual component of the SST (BO) is modulated by the 11-year solar cycle: the amplitude of the BO is large during a period of low solar activity, but small during high solar activity. More than 25-years or two solar cycle has passed since his finding, but the relationship still holds. In order to get an insight into the mechanism of the solar modulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), here we have revisited this problem. Solar cycle modulation of the BO in the tropical SST is discernible since the end of the 19th centuries, but the amplitude modulation is particularly clear after 1960's. The composite analysis of the SST based on the amplitude of the BO during 1958-2012, indicates that the amplitude of BO is larger when the equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies are high in the central Pacific, but low in the eastern Pacific. Central Pacific anomalies extend to the northern hemisphere, while those in the central Pacific spread toward the southern hemisphere. In short, this anomalous SST pattern is similar to the El Niño modoki. In this connection, it should be noted that the solar signal in the tropical SST also exhibits a similar pattern. This suggests that the modulation of the ENSO variability by the solar cycle originates through a modulation of the El Niño Modoki rather than the canonical El Nino.

Radiocarbon evidence for low frequency solar oscillations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damon, P.E.; Jirikowic, I.

1992-01-01

From the spectrum of Δ 14 C variations attributed to solar activity modulation of cosmogenic isotope production, a long-period variation (the Hallstattzeit) of 2120±20 years was deduced with 93% statistical confidence. Although most Hallstattzeit harmonic overtones may be shape-related, two also behave as fundamentals: that of 212 years (Suess) and of 88 years (Gleissberg). These exceptional harmonic overtones modulate the 11-year Schwabe solar cycle determined from indices of sunspots. The Hallstattzeit period may be associated with dramatic secular changes in solar behavior. Sun-like stars exhibit quiet and active states consistent with such long-period secular variations. The climate impact of solar output changes may partially explain periods of rapid climate change such as the Little Ice Age associated with 14 C anomalies. (author) 9 tabs., 8 figs., 23 refs

Solar thermal organic rankine cycle for micro-generation

Science.gov (United States)

Alkahli, N. A.; Abdullah, H.; Darus, A. N.; Jalaludin, A. F.

2012-06-01

The conceptual design of an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) driven by solar thermal energy is developed for the decentralized production of electricity of up to 50 kW. Conventional Rankine Cycle uses water as the working fluid whereas ORC uses organic compound as the working fluid and it is particularly suitable for low temperature applications. The ORC and the solar collector will be sized according to the solar flux distribution in the Republic of Yemen for the required power output of 50 kW. This will be a micro power generation system that consists of two cycles, the solar thermal cycle that harness solar energy and the power cycle, which is the ORC that generates electricity. As for the solar thermal cycle, heat transfer fluid (HTF) circulates the cycle while absorbing thermal energy from the sun through a parabolic trough collector and then storing it in a thermal storage to increase system efficiency and maintains system operation during low radiation. The heat is then transferred to the organic fluid in the ORC via a heat exchanger. The organic fluids to be used and analyzed in the ORC are hydrocarbons R600a and R290.

Signature of a possible relationship between the maximum CME speed index and the critical frequencies of the F1 and F2 ionospheric layers: Data analysis for a mid-latitude ionospheric station during the solar cycles 23 and 24

Science.gov (United States)

Kilcik, Ali; Ozguc, Atila; Yiǧit, Erdal; Yurchyshyn, Vasyl; Donmez, Burcin

2018-06-01

We analyze temporal variations of two solar indices, the monthly mean Maximum CME Speed Index (MCMESI) and the International Sunspot Number (ISSN) as well as the monthly median ionospheric critical frequencies (foF1, and foF2) for the time period of 1996-2013, which covers the entire solar cycle 23 and the ascending branch of the cycle 24. We found that the maximum of foF1 and foF2 occurred respectively during the first and second maximum of the ISSN solar activity index in the solar cycle 23. We compared these data sets by using the cross-correlation and hysteresis analysis and found that both foF1 and foF2 show higher correlation with ISSN than the MCMESI during the investigated time period, but when significance levels are considered correlation coefficients between the same indices become comparable. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the agreement between these data sets (solar indices and ionospheric critical frequencies) is better pronounced during the ascending phases of solar cycles, while they display significant deviations during the descending phase. We conclude that there exists a signature of a possible relationship between MCMESI and foF1 and foF2, which means that MCMESI could be used as a possible indicator of solar and geomagnetic activity, even though other investigations are needed.

Complex network approach to characterize the statistical features of the sunspot series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zou, Yong; Liu, Zonghua; Small, Michael; Kurths, Jürgen

2014-01-01

Complex network approaches have been recently developed as an alternative framework to study the statistical features of time-series data. We perform a visibility-graph analysis on both the daily and monthly sunspot series. Based on the data, we propose two ways to construct the network: one is from the original observable measurements and the other is from a negative-inverse-transformed series. The degree distribution of the derived networks for the strong maxima has clear non-Gaussian properties, while the degree distribution for minima is bimodal. The long-term variation of the cycles is reflected by hubs in the network that span relatively large time intervals. Based on standard network structural measures, we propose to characterize the long-term correlations by waiting times between two subsequent events. The persistence range of the solar cycles has been identified over 15–1000 days by a power-law regime with scaling exponent γ = 2.04 of the occurrence time of two subsequent strong minima. In contrast, a persistent trend is not present in the maximal numbers, although maxima do have significant deviations from an exponential form. Our results suggest some new insights for evaluating existing models. (paper)

Helioseismic Solar Cycle Changes and Splitting Coefficients

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

tribpo

Abstract. Using the GONG data for a period over four years, we have studied the variation of frequencies and splitting coefficients with solar cycle. Frequencies and even-order coefficients are found to change signi- ficantly with rising phase of the solar cycle. We also find temporal varia- tions in the rotation rate near the solar ...

Solar Features - Solar Flares

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A solar flare is a short-lived sudden increase in the intensity of radiation emitted in the neighborhood of sunspots. For many years it was best monitored in the...

Solar UV radiation variations and their stratospheric and climatic effects

Science.gov (United States)

Donnelly, R. F.; Heath, D. F.

1985-01-01

Nimbus-7 SBUV measurements of the short-term solar UV variations caused by solar rotation and active-region evolution have determined the amplitude and wavelength dependence for the active-region component of solar UV variations. Intermediate-term variations lasting several months are associated with rounds of major new active regions. The UV flux stays near the peak value during the current solar cycle variation for more than two years and peaks about two years later than the sunspot number. Nimbus-7 measurements have observed the concurrent stratospheric ozone variations caused by solar UV variations. There is now no doubt that solar UV variations are an important cause of short- and long-term stratospheric variations, but the strength of the coupling to the troposphere and to climate has not yet been proven.

Sunspot number recalibration: The ~1840–1920 anomaly in the observer normalization factors of the group sunspot number

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cliver Edward W.

2017-01-01

is substantiated by a “correction-factor” (CF time series defined as the ratio of annual group counts of the Hoyt & Schatten (1998a, 1998b series to the average raw (unscaled group counts of all observers, as well as by a comparison of the GSN and GSN* time series with a recent reconstruction of solar wind B from 1845 to the present. The ~1840–1920 k′-factor anomaly and its impact on the Hoyt and Schatten GSN are discussed in the context of the ongoing effort to recalibrate the sunspot number time series.

The mutual attraction of magnetic knots. [solar hydromagnetic instability in sunspot regions

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, E. N.

1978-01-01

It is observed that the magnetic knots associated with active regions on the sun have an attraction for each other during the formative period of the active regions, when new magnetic flux is coming to the surface. The attraction disappears when new flux ceases to rise through the surface. Then the magnetic spots and knots tend to come apart, leading to disintegration of the sunspots previously formed. The dissolution of the fields is to be expected, as a consequence of the magnetic repulsion of knots of like polarity and as a consequence of the hydromagnetic exchange instability. The purpose of this paper is to show that the mutual attraction of knots during the formative stages of a sunspot region may be understood as the mutual hydrodynamic attraction of the rising flux tubes. Two rising tubes attract each other, as a consequence of the wake of the leading tube when one is moving behind the other, and as a consequence of the Bernoulli effect when rising side by side.

Flow and magnetic field properties in the trailing sunspots of active region NOAA 12396

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Verma, M.; Denker, C.; Boehm, F.; Balthasar, H.; Fischer, C.E.; Kuckein, C.; Gonzalez, N.B.; Berkefeld, T.; Collados Vera, M.; Diercke, A.; Feller, A.; Gonzalez Manrique, S. J.; Hofmann, A.; Lagg, A.; Nicklas, H.; Orozco Suárez, D.; Pator Yabar, A.; Rezaei, R.; Schlichenmaier, R.; Schmidt, D.; Schmidt, W.; Sigwarth, M.; Sobotka, Michal; Solanki, S.K.; Soltau, D.; Staude, J.; Strassmeier, K.G.; Volkmer, R.; von der Lühe, O.; Waldmann, T.A.

2016-01-01

Roč. 337, č. 10 (2016), s. 1090-1098 ISSN 0004-6337. [Dynamic Sun - Exploring the Many Facets of Solar Eruptive Events. Potsdam, 26.10. 2015 -29.10. 2015 ] Institutional support: RVO:67985815 Keywords : Sun * magnetic fields * sunspots Subject RIV: BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics Impact factor: 0.916, year: 2016

LONG-TERM MEASUREMENTS OF SUNSPOT MAGNETIC TILT ANGLES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li Jing [Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 (United States); Ulrich, Roger K., E-mail: jli@igpp.ucla.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 (United States)

2012-10-20

Tilt angles of close to 30,600 sunspots are determined using Mount Wilson daily averaged magnetograms taken from 1974 to 2012, and SOHO/MDI magnetograms taken from 1996 to 2010. Within a cycle, more than 90% of sunspots have a normal polarity alignment along the east-west direction following Hale's law. The median tilts increase with increasing latitude (Joy's law) at a rate of {approx}0.{sup 0}5 per degree of latitude. Tilt angles of spots appear largely invariant with respect to time at a given latitude, but they decrease by {approx}0.{sup 0}9 per year on average, a trend that largely reflects Joy's law following the butterfly diagram. We find an asymmetry between the hemispheres in the mean tilt angles. On average, the tilts are greater in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere for all latitude zones, and the differences increase with increasing latitude.

Periodicities observed on solar flux index (F10.7) during geomagnetic disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, B.; Narayan, C.; Chhatkuli, D. N.

2017-12-01

Solar activities change within the period of 11 years. Sometimes the greatest event occurs in the period of solar maxima and the lowest activity occurs in the period of solar minimum. During the time period of solar activity sunspots number will vary. A 10.7 cm solar flux measurement is a determination of the strength of solar radio emission. The solar flux index is more often used for the prediction and monitoring of the solar activity. This study mainly focused on the variation on solar flux index and amount of electromagnetic wave in the atmosphere. Both seasonal and yearly variation on solar F10.7 index. We also analyzed the dataset obatained from riometer.Both instruments show seasonal and yearly variations. We also observed the solar cycle dependence on solar flux index and found a strong dependence on solar activity. Results also show that solar intensities higher during the rising phase of solar cycle. We also observed periodicities on solar flux index using wavelet analysis. Through this analysis, it was found that the power intensities of solar flux index show a high spectral variability.

EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR CORONA DURING THE MINIMUM BETWEEN SOLAR CYCLES 23 AND 24

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nuevo, Federico A.; Vasquez, Alberto M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (CONICET-UBA) and FCEN (UBA), CC 67-Suc 28, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Huang Zhenguang; Frazin, Richard; Manchester, Ward B. IV; Jin Meng [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States)

2013-08-10

The combination of differential emission measure tomography with extrapolation of the photospheric magnetic field allows determination of the electron density and electron temperature along individual magnetic field lines. This is especially useful in quiet-Sun (QS) plasmas where individual loops cannot otherwise be identified. In Paper I, this approach was applied to study QS plasmas during Carrington rotation (CR) 2077 at the minimum between solar cycles (SCs) 23 and 24. In that work, two types of QS coronal loops were identified: ''up'' loops in which the temperature increases with height, and ''down'' loops in which the temperature decreases with height. While the first ones were expected, the latter ones were a surprise and, furthermore, were found to be ubiquitous in the low-latitude corona. In the present work, we extend the analysis to 11 CRs around the last solar minimum. We found that the ''down'' population, always located at low latitudes, was maximum at the time when the sunspot number was minimum, and the number of down loops systematically increased during the declining phase of SC-23 and diminished during the rising phase of SC-24. ''Down'' loops are found to have systematically larger values of {beta} than do ''up'' loops. These discoveries are interpreted in terms of excitation of Alfven waves in the photosphere, and mode conversion and damping in the low corona.

M-number dependence of rotation period of the solar magnetic field and its effect on coronal hole and solar flare

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saito, Takao; Oki, Tosio

1989-01-01

The photospheric magnetic field is revealed to rotate with different solar rotation periods depending on its m-number, or its longitudinal range. The m-dependent rotation reveals the unexplained solar cycle variation of the 28-day period of the IMF 2-sector structure in inclining/minimum years and of the 27-day period in the declining/minimum years. The m-dependent rotation reveals also the unexplained 155-day periodicity in the occurrence of solar flare clusters, suggesting a motion of the sunspot field relative to the large-scale field. The IMF sector structure is closely related to recurrent geomagnetic storms, while the flare occurrence is related to sporadic SC storms. Hence, the m-dependent rotation is quite important in the study of the STE forecast. (author)

A Two Dimensional Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz-Jaramillo, A.; Martens, P. C.

2017-12-01

To this date solar cycle most cycle predictions have focused on the forecast of solar cycle amplitude and cycle bell-curve shape. However, recent intriguing observational results suggest that all solar cycles follow the same longitudinal path regardless of their amplitude, and have a very similar decay once they reach a sufficient level of maturity. Cast in the light of our current understanding, these results suggest that the toroidal fields inside the Sun are subject to a very high turbulent diffusivity (of the order of magnitude of mixing-length estimates), and their equatorward propagation is driven by a steady meridional flow. Assuming this is the case, we will revisit the relationship between the polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of the next cycle and deliver a new generation of polar-field based predictions that include the depth of the minimum, as well as the latitude and time of the first active regions of solar cycle 25.

Sunspot drawings handwritten character recognition method based on deep learning

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Sheng; Zeng, Xiangyun; Lin, Ganghua; Zhao, Cui; Feng, Yongli; Tao, Jinping; Zhu, Daoyuan; Xiong, Li

2016-05-01

High accuracy scanned sunspot drawings handwritten characters recognition is an issue of critical importance to analyze sunspots movement and store them in the database. This paper presents a robust deep learning method for scanned sunspot drawings handwritten characters recognition. The convolution neural network (CNN) is one algorithm of deep learning which is truly successful in training of multi-layer network structure. CNN is used to train recognition model of handwritten character images which are extracted from the original sunspot drawings. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method on sunspot drawings provided by Chinese Academy Yunnan Observatory and obtain the daily full-disc sunspot numbers and sunspot areas from the sunspot drawings. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a high recognition accurate rate.

Tidal and solar cycle effects on the OI 5577 A, NaD and OH(8,3) airglow emissions observed at 23 deg S

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takahashi, H.; Sahai, Y.; Batista, P.P.

1984-01-01

The upper mesosphere airglow emissions OI 5577, NaD and OH have been observed at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7 deg S; 45.0 deg W) Brazil. Nocturnal variations and their seasonal dependencies in amplitude and phase, and the annual variations of these emissions are presented, analysing the data obtained from 1977 to 1982 during the ascending phase of the last solar cycle. The nocturnal variations of the OI 5577 emission and the OH rotational temperature showed a significant semidiurnal oscillation, with the phase of maximum moving from midnight in January to early morning in June. Semiannual variation of the OI 5577 and NaD emissions with the maximum intensities in April/May and October/November were observed. The OH rotational temperature, however, showed an annual variation, maximum in summer and minimum in winter, while no significant seasonal variation was found in the OH emission intensities. Long-term intensity variations are also presented with the solar sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm flux. (author)

MAGNETIC ROSSBY WAVES IN THE SOLAR TACHOCLINE AND RIEGER-TYPE PERIODICITIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaqarashvili, Teimuraz V.; Carbonell, Marc; Oliver, Ramon; Ballester, Jose Luis

2010-01-01

Apart from the eleven-year solar cycle, another periodicity around 155-160 days was discovered during solar cycle 21 in high-energy solar flares, and its presence in sunspot areas and strong magnetic flux has been also reported. This periodicity has an elusive and enigmatic character, since it usually appears only near the maxima of solar cycles, and seems to be related with a periodic emergence of strong magnetic flux at the solar surface. Therefore, it is probably connected with the tachocline, a thin layer located near the base of the solar convection zone, where a strong dynamo magnetic field is stored. We study the dynamics of Rossby waves in the tachocline in the presence of a toroidal magnetic field and latitudinal differential rotation. Our analysis shows that the magnetic Rossby waves are generally unstable and that the growth rates are sensitive to the magnetic field strength and to the latitudinal differential rotation parameters. Variation of the differential rotation and the magnetic field strength throughout the solar cycle enhance the growth rate of a particular harmonic in the upper part of the tachocline around the maximum of the solar cycle. This harmonic is symmetric with respect to the equator and has a period of 155-160 days. A rapid increase of the wave amplitude could give rise to a magnetic flux emergence leading to observed periodicities in solar activity indicators related to magnetic flux.

SOHO sees right through the Sun, and finds sunspots on the far side

Science.gov (United States)

2000-03-01

The story is told today in the journal Science by Charles Lindsey of Tucson, Arizona, and Doug Braun of Boulder, Colorado. They realised that the analytical witchcraft called helioseismic holography might open a window right through the Sun. And the technique worked when they used it to decode waves seen on the visible surface by one of SOHO's instruments, the Michelson Doppler Imager, or MDI. "We've known for ten years that in theory we could make the Sun transparent all the way to the far side," said Charles Lindsey. "But we needed observations of exceptional quality. In the end we got them, from MDI on SOHO." For more than 100 years scientists have been aware that groups of dark sunspots on the Sun's visible face are often the scene of flares and other eruptions. Nowadays they watch the Sun more closely than ever, because modern systems are much more vulnerable to solar disturbances than old-style technology was. The experts can still be taken by surprise, because the Sun turns on its axis. A large group of previously hidden sunspots can suddenly swing into view on the eastern (left-hand) edge of the Sun. It may already be blazing away with menacing eruptions. With a far-side preview of sunspots, nasty shocks for the space weather forecasters may now be avoidable. Last year, French and Finnish scientists used SWAN, another instrument on SOHO, to detect activity on the far side. They saw an ultraviolet glow lighting up gas in the Solar System beyond the Sun, and moving across the sky like a lighthouse beam as the Sun rotated. The method used by Lindsey and Braun with MDI data is completely different, and it pinpoints the source of the activity on the far side. Solar seismology chalks up another success Detection of sound waves reverberating through the Sun opened its gassy interior for investigation, in much the same way as seismologists learned to explore the Earth's rocky interior with earthquake waves. Using special telescopes on the ground and in space

Period and phase comparisons of near-decadal oscillations in solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray time series

Science.gov (United States)

Juckett, David A.

2001-09-01

A more complete understanding of the periodic dynamics of the Sun requires continued exploration of non-11-year oscillations in addition to the benchmark 11-year sunspot cycle. In this regard, several solar, geomagnetic, and cosmic ray time series were examined to identify common spectral components and their relative phase relationships. Several non-11-year oscillations were identified within the near-decadal range with periods of ~8, 10, 12, 15, 18, 22, and 29 years. To test whether these frequency components were simply low-level noise or were related to a common source, the phases were extracted for each component in each series. The phases were nearly identical across the solar and geomagnetic series, while the corresponding components in four cosmic ray surrogate series exhibited inverted phases, similar to the known phase relationship with the 11-year sunspot cycle. Cluster analysis revealed that this pattern was unlikely to occur by chance. It was concluded that many non-11-year oscillations truly exist in the solar dynamical environment and that these contribute to the complex variations observed in geomagnetic and cosmic ray time series. Using the different energy sensitivities of the four cosmic ray surrogate series, a preliminary indication of the relative intensities of the various solar-induced oscillations was observed. It provides evidence that many of the non-11-year oscillations result from weak interplanetary magnetic field/solar wind oscillations that originate from corresponding variations in the open-field regions of the Sun.

High performance integrated solar combined cycles with minimum modifications to the combined cycle power plant design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manente, Giovanni

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Off-design model of a 390 MW_e three pressure combined cycle developed and validated. • The off-design model is used to evaluate different hybridization schemes with solar. • Power boosting and fuel saving with different design modifications are considered. • Maximum solar share of total electricity is only 1% with the existing equipment. • The maximum incremental solar radiation-to-electrical efficiency approaches 29%. - Abstract: The integration of solar energy into natural gas combined cycles has been successfully demonstrated in several integrated solar combined cycles since the beginning of this decade in many countries. There are many motivations that drive investments on integrated solar combined cycles which are primarily the repowering of existing power plants, the compliance with more severe environmental laws on emissions and the mitigation of risks associated with large solar projects. Integrated solar combined cycles are usually developed as brownfield facilities by retrofitting existing natural gas combined cycles and keeping the existing equipment to minimize costs. In this work a detailed off-design model of a 390 MW_e three pressure level natural gas combined cycle is built to evaluate different integration schemes of solar energy which either keep the equipment of the combined cycle unchanged or include new equipment (steam turbine, heat recovery steam generator). Both power boosting and fuel saving operation strategies are analyzed in the search for the highest annual efficiency and solar share. Results show that the maximum incremental power output from solar at design solar irradiance is limited to 19 MW_e without modifications to the existing equipment. Higher values are attainable only including a larger steam turbine. High solar radiation-to-electrical efficiencies in the range 24–29% can be achieved in the integrated solar combined cycle depending on solar share and extension of tube banks in the heat recovery

Solar cycle variations of geocoronal balmer α emission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nossal, S.; Reynolds, R.J.; Roesler, F.L.; Scherb, F.

1993-01-01

Observations of the geocoronal Balmer in nightglow have been made from Wisconsin for more than a solar cycle with an internally consistent intensity reference to standard astronomical nebulae. These measurements were made with a double etalon, pressure-scanned, 15-cm aperture Fabry-Perot interferometer. The resulting long time data provides an opportunity to examine solar cycle influence on the mid-latitude exosphere and to address accompanying questions concerning the degree to which the exosphere is locally static or changing. The exospheric Balmer α absolute intensity measurements reported here show no statistically significant variations throughout the solar cycle when the variation with viewing geometry is removed by normalizing the data to reference exospheric model predictions by Anderson et al. However, the relative intensity dependence on solar depression angle does show a solar cycle variation. This variation suggests a possible related variation in the exospheric hydrogen density profile, although other interpretations are also possible. The results suggest that additional well-calibrated data taken over a longer time span could probe low-amplitude variations over the solar cycle and test predictions of a slow monotonic increase in exospheric hydrogen arising from greenhouse gases. 21 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

THE BIMODAL STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR CYCLE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du, Z. L., E-mail: zldu@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

2015-05-01

Some properties of the 11 yr solar cycle can be explained by the current solar dynamo models. However, some other features remain not well understood such as the asymmetry of the cycle, the double-peaked structure, and the “Waldmeier effect” that a stronger cycle tends to have less rise time and a shorter cycle length. We speculate that the solar cycle is governed by a bi-dynamo model forming two stochastic processes depicted by a bimodal Gaussian function with a time gap of about 2 yr, from which the above features can be reasonably explained. The first one describes the main properties of the cycle dominated by the current solar dynamo models, and the second one occurs either in the rising phase as a short weak explosive perturbation or in the declining phase as a long stochastic perturbation. The above function is the best one selected from several in terms of the Akaike information criterion. Through analyzing different distributions, one might speculate about the dominant physical process inside the convection zone. The secondary (main) process is found to be closely associated with complicated (simple) active ranges. In effect, the bi-dynamo model is a reduced form of a multi-dynamo model, which could occur from the base of the convection zone through its envelope and from low to high heliographic latitude, reflecting the active belts in the convection zone. These results are insensitive to the hemispheric asymmetry, smoothing filters, and distribution functions selected and are expected to be helpful in understanding the formation of solar and stellar cycles.

The Peculiar Behavior of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 24

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalswamy, N.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S.; Makela, P.; Yashiro, S.; Michalek, G.

2015-01-01

We report on the remarkable finding that the halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in cycle 24 are more abundant than in cycle 23, although the sunspot number in cycle 24 has dropped by approx. 40%. We also find that the distribution of halo-CME source locations is different in cycle 24: the longitude distribution of halos is much flatter with the number of halos originating at a central meridian distance greater than or equal to 60deg twice as large as that in cycle 23. On the other hand, the average speed and associated soft X-ray flare size are the same in both cycles, suggesting that the ambient medium into which the CMEs are ejected is significantly different. We suggest that both the higher abundance and larger central meridian longitudes of halo CMEs can be explained as a consequence of the diminished total pressure in the heliosphere in cycle 24. The reduced total pressure allows CMEs to expand more than usual making them appear as halos.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Changes During Cycle 24

Science.gov (United States)

Marchenko, Sergey; Deland, Matthew

2014-01-01

We use solar spectra obtained by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite to detect and follow long-term (years) and short-term (weeks) changes in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the 265-500 nm spectral range. During solar Cycle 24, in the relatively line-free regions the SSI changed by approximately 0.6% +/- 0.2% around 265 nm. These changes gradually diminish to 0.15% +/- 0.20% at 500 nm. All strong spectral lines and blends, with the notable exception of the upper Balmer lines, vary in unison with the solar "continuum." Besides the lines with strong chromospheric components, the most involved species include Fe I blends and all prominent CH, NH, and CN spectral bands. Following the general trend seen in the solar "continuum," the variability of spectral lines also decreases toward longer wavelengths. The long-term solar cycle SSI changes are closely, to within the quoted 0.1%-0.2% uncertainties, matched by the appropriately adjusted short-term SSI variations derived from the 27 day rotational modulation cycles. This further strengthens and broadens the prevailing notion about the general scalability of the UV SSI variability to the emissivity changes in the Mg II 280 nm doublet on timescales from weeks to years. We also detect subtle deviations from this general rule: the prominent spectral lines and blends at lambda approximately or greater than 350 nm show slightly more pronounced 27 day SSI changes when compared to the long-term (years) trends. We merge the solar data from Cycle 21 with the current Cycle 24 OMI and GOME-2 observations and provide normalized SSI variations for the 170-795 nm spectral region.

Solar Flare Aimed at Earth

Science.gov (United States)

2002-01-01

At the height of the solar cycle, the Sun is finally displaying some fireworks. This image from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) shows a large solar flare from June 6, 2000 at 1424 Universal Time (10:24 AM Eastern Daylight Savings Time). Associated with the flare was a coronal mass ejection that sent a wave of fast moving charged particles straight towards Earth. (The image was acquired by the Extreme ultaviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT), one of 12 instruments aboard SOHO) Solar activity affects the Earth in several ways. The particles generated by flares can disrupt satellite communications and interfere with power transmission on the Earth's surface. Earth's climate is tied to the total energy emitted by the sun, cooling when the sun radiates less energy and warming when solar output increases. Solar radiation also produces ozone in the stratosphere, so total ozone levels tend to increase during the solar maximum. For more information about these solar flares and the SOHO mission, see NASA Science News or the SOHO home page. For more about the links between the sun and climate change, see Sunspots and the Solar Max. Image courtesy SOHO Extreme ultaviolet Imaging Telescope, ESA/NASA

Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

Science.gov (United States)

DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2011-01-01

Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements

Umbral oscillations as a probe of sunspot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdelatif, T.E.H.

1985-01-01

The interaction of the solar five-minute oscillations with a sunspot is thoroughly explored, both on observational and theoretical grounds. Simple theoretical models are developed in order to understand the observations of umbral oscillations. Observations made at the National Solar Observatory detected both the three-minute and five-minute umbral oscillations at photospheric heights. The three-minute oscillations were found to have a kinetic energy density six times higher in the photosphere than in the chromosphere and to be concentrated in the central part of the umbra, supporting the photospheric resonance theory for the three-minute umbral oscillations. The five-minute oscillations are attenuated in the umbra, which appears to act as a filter in selecting some of the peaks in the power spectrum of five-minute oscillations in the surrounding photosphere. The k-omega power spectrum of the umbral oscillations shows a shift of power to longer wavelengths. Theoretical models of the transmission of acoustic waves into a magnetic region explain both observed effects

Solar cycle variation of cosmic ray intensity along with interplanetary and solar wind plasma parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, R.K.; Tiwari, S.; Agarwal, R.

2008-01-01

Galactic cosmic rays are modulated at their propagation in the heliosphere by the effect of the large-scale structure of the interplanetary medium. A comparison of the variations in the cosmic ray intensity data obtained by neutron monitoring stations with those in geomagnetic disturbance, solar wind velocity (V), interplanetary magnetic field (B), and their product (V , B) near the Earth for the period 1964-2004 has been presented so as to establish a possible correlation between them. We used the hourly averaged cosmic ray counts observed with the neutron monitor in Moscow. It is noteworthy that a significant negative correlation has been observed between the interplanetary magnetic field, product (V , B) and cosmic ray intensity during the solar cycles 21 and 22. The solar wind velocity has a good positive correlation with cosmic ray intensity during solar cycle 21, whereas it shows a weak correlation during cycles 20, 22 and 23. The interplanetary magnetic field shows a weak negative correlation with cosmic rays for solar cycle 20, and a good anti-correlation for solar cycles 21-23 with the cosmic ray intensity, which, in turn, shows a good positive correlation with disturbance time index (Dst) during solar cycles 21 and 22, and a weak correlation for cycles 20 and 23. (Authors)

Geographically selective assortment of cycles in pandemics: meta-analysis of data collected by Chizhevsky.

Science.gov (United States)

Gumarova, L; Cornélissen, G; Hillman, D; Halberg, F

2013-10-01

In the incidence patterns of cholera, diphtheria and croup during the past when they were of epidemic proportions, we document a set of cycles (periods), one of which was reported and discussed by A. L. Chizhevsky in the same data with emphasis on the mirroring in human disease of the ~11-year sunspot cycle. The data in this study are based on Chizhevsky’s book The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms and on records from the World Health Organization. For meta-analysis, we used the extended linear and nonlinear cosinor. We found a geographically selective assortment of various cycles characterizing the epidemiology of infections, which is the documented novel topic of this paper, complementing the earlier finding in the 21st century or shortly before, of a geographically selective assortment of cycles characterizing human sudden cardiac death. Solar effects, if any, interact with geophysical processes in contributing to this assortment.

Preliminary results from the orbiting solar observatory 8: Transition-zone dynamics over a sunspot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruner, E.C. Jr.; Chipman, E.G.; Lites, B.W.; Rottman, G.J.; Shine, R.A.; Athay, R.G.; White, O.R.

1976-01-01

The University of Colorado experiment aboard OSO-8 observed the C IV 1548 A line in the bright plume over a sunspot. Transient redshifts at 5 minute intervals were studied, but the expected phenomena associated with simple Alfven wave effects were not observed

A model of a sunspot chromosphere based on OSO 8 observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lites, B. W.; Skumanich, A.

1982-01-01

OSO 8 spectrometer observations of the H I, Mg II, and Ca II resonance lines of a large quiet sunspot during November 16-17, 1975, along with a C IV line of that event obtained by a ground-based spectrometer, are analyzed together with near-simultaneous ground-based Stokes measurements to yield an umbral chromosphere and transition region model. Features of this model include a chromosphere that is effectively thin in the resonance lines of H I and Mg II, while being saturated in Ca II, and an upper chromospheric structure similar to that of quiet-sun models. The similarity of the upper chromosphere of the sunspot umbra to the quiet-sun chromosphere suggests that the intense magnetic field plays only a passive role in the chromospheric heating mechanism, and the observations cited indicate that solar-type stars with large areas of ordered magnetic flux would not necessarily exhibit extremely active chromosphere.

Oscillations and Waves in Sunspots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Khomenko

2015-11-01

Full Text Available A magnetic field modifies the properties of waves in a complex way. Significant advances have been made recently in our understanding of the physics of sunspot waves with the help of high-resolution observations, analytical theories, as well as numerical simulations. We review the current ideas in the field, providing the most coherent picture of sunspot oscillations as by present understanding.

Trends and solar cycle effects in mesospheric ice clouds

Science.gov (United States)

Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Fiedler, Jens; Baumgarten, Gerd; Gerding, Michael

Lidar observations of mesospheric ice layers (noctilucent clouds, NLC) are now available since 12 years which allows to study solar cycle effects on NLC parameters such as altitudes, bright-ness, and occurrence rates. We present observations from our lidar stations in Kuehlungsborn (54N) and ALOMAR (69N). Different from general expectations the mean layer characteris-tics at ALOMAR do not show a persistent anti-correlation with solar cycle. Although a nice anti-correlation of Ly-alpha and occurrence rates is detected in the first half of the solar cycle, occurrence rates decreased with decreasing solar activity thereafter. Interestingly, in summer 2009 record high NLC parameters were detected as expected in solar minimum conditions. The morphology of NLC suggests that other processes except solar radiation may affect NLC. We have recently applied our LIMA model to study in detail the solar cycle effects on tempera-tures and water vapor concentration the middle atmosphere and its subsequent influence on mesospheric ice clouds. Furthermore, lower atmosphere effects are implicitly included because LIMA nudges to the conditions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. We compare LIMA results regarding solar cycle effects on temperatures and ice layers with observations at ALO-MAR as well as satellite borne measurements. We will also present LIMA results regarding the latitude variation of solar cycle and trends, including a comparison of northern and southern hemisphere. We have adapted the observation conditions from SBUV (wavelength and scatter-ing angle) in LIMA for a detailed comparison with long term observations of ice clouds from satellites.

HIGH RESOLUTION He i 10830 Å NARROW-BAND IMAGING OF AN M-CLASS FLARE. I. ANALYSIS OF SUNSPOT DYNAMICS DURING FLARING

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Ya; Su, Yingna; Hong, Zhenxiang; Ji, Haisheng [Key Laboratory of DMSA, Purple Mountain Observatory, CAS, Nanjing, 210008 (China); Zeng, Zhicheng; Goode, Philip R.; Cao, Wenda [Big Bear Solar Observatory, 40386 North Shore Lane, Big Bear City, CA 92314 (United States); Ji, Kaifan [Yunnan Astronomical Observatories, Kunming 650011 (China)

2016-12-20

In this paper, we report our first-step results of high resolution He i 10830 Å narrow-band imaging (bandpass: 0.5 Å) of an M1.8 class two-ribbon flare on 2012 July 5. The flare was observed with the 1.6 m aperture New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. For this unique data set, sunspot dynamics during flaring were analyzed for the first time. By directly imaging the upper chromosphere, running penumbral waves are clearly seen as an outward extension of umbral flashes; both take the form of absorption in the 10830 Å narrow-band images. From a space–time image made of a slit cutting across a flare ribbon and the sunspot, we find that the dark lanes for umbral flashes and penumbral waves are obviously broadened after the flare. The most prominent feature is the sudden appearance of an oscillating absorption strip inside the ribbon when it sweeps into the sunspot’s penumbral and umbral regions. During each oscillation, outwardly propagating umbral flashes and subsequent penumbral waves rush out into the inwardly sweeping ribbon, followed by a return of the absorption strip with similar speed. We tentatively explain the phenomena as the result of a sudden increase in the density of ortho-helium atoms in the area of the sunspot being excited by the flare’s extreme ultraviolet illumination. This explanation is based on the observation that 10830 Å absorption around the sunspot area gets enhanced during the flare. Nevertheless, questions are still open and we need further well-devised observations to investigate the behavior of sunspot dynamics during flares.

Characteristic studies on solar x-ray flares and solar radio bursts during descending phases of solar cycles 22 and 23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharya, J.; De, B.K.; Guha, A.

2014-01-01

In this paper, a comparative study between the solar X-ray flares and solar radio bursts in terms of their duration and energy has been done. This has been done by analyzing the data in a statistical way covering the descending phase of the 22nd and 23rd solar cycles. It has been observed that the most probable value of duration of both solar X-ray flares and solar radio bursts remain same for a particular cycle. There is a slight variation in the most probable value of duration in going from 22nd cycle to 23rd cycle in the case of both kinds of events. This small variation may be due to the variation of polar field. A low correlation has been observed between energy fluxes in solar X-ray flares and in solar radio bursts. This has been attributed to the non symmetric contribution of energy to the solar radio and X-ray band controlled by solar magnetic field

Weak ionization of the global ionosphere in solar cycle 24

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Q. Hao

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Following prolonged and extremely quiet solar activity from 2008 to 2009, the 24th solar cycle started slowly. It has been almost 5 years since then. The measurement of ionospheric critical frequency (foF2 shows the fact that solar activity has been significantly lower in the first half of cycle 24, compared to the average levels of cycles 19 to 23; the data of global average total electron content (TEC confirm that the global ionosphere around the cycle 24 peak is much more weakly ionized, in contrast to cycle 23. The weak ionization has been more notable since the year 2012, when both the ionosphere and solar activity were expected to be approaching their maximum level. The undersupply of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV irradiance somewhat continues after the 2008–2009 minimum, and is considered to be the main cause of the weak ionization. It further implies that the thermosphere and ionosphere in the first solar cycle of this millennium would probably differ from what we have learned from the previous cycles of the space age.

The Solar Wind Source Cycle: Relationship to Dynamo Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Luhmann, J. G.; Li, Y.; Lee, C. O.; Jian, L. K.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Arge, C. N.

2017-12-01

Solar cycle trends of interest include the evolving properties of the solar wind, the heliospheric medium through which the Sun's plasmas and fields interact with Earth and the planets -including the evolution of CME/ICMEs enroute. Solar wind sources include the coronal holes-the open field regions that constantly evolve with solar magnetic fields as the cycle progresses, and the streamers between them. The recent cycle has been notably important in demonstrating that not all solar cycles are alike when it comes to contributions from these sources, including in the case of ecliptic solar wind. In particular, it has modified our appreciation of the low latitude coronal hole and streamer sources because of their relative prevalence. One way to understand the basic relationship between these source differences and what is happening inside the Sun and on its surface is to use observation-based models like the PFSS model to evaluate the evolution of the coronal field geometry. Although the accuracy of these models is compromised around solar maximum by lack of global surface field information and the sometimes non-potential evolution of the field related to more frequent and widespread emergence of active regions, they still approximate the character of the coronal field state. We use these models to compare the inferred recent cycle coronal holes and streamer belt sources of solar wind with past cycle counterparts. The results illustrate how (still) hemispherically asymmetric weak polar fields maintain a complex mix of low-to-mid latitude solar wind sources throughout the latest cycle, with a related marked asymmetry in the hemispheric distribution of the ecliptic wind sources. This is likely to be repeated until the polar field strength significantly increases relative to the fields at low latitudes, and the latter symmetrize.

Questioning the Influence of Sunspots on Amazon Hydrology: Even a Broken Clock Tells the Right Time Twice a Day

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, J. C. A.; Gloor, M.; Boom, A.; Neill, D. A.; Cintra, B. B. L.; Clerici, S. J.; Brienen, R. J. W.

2018-02-01

It was suggested in a recent article that sunspots drive decadal variation in Amazon River flow. This conclusion was based on a novel time series decomposition method used to extract a decadal signal from the Amazon River record. We have extended this analysis back in time, using a new hydrological proxy record of tree ring oxygen isotopes (δ18OTR). Consistent with the findings of Antico and Torres, we find a positive correlation between sunspots and the decadal δ18OTR cycle from 1903 to 2012 (r = 0.60, p r = -0.30, p = 0.11, 1799-1902). This result casts considerable doubt over the mechanism by which sunspots are purported to influence Amazon hydrology.

Sunspot Modeling: From Simplified Models to Radiative MHD Simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rolf Schlichenmaier

2011-09-01

Full Text Available We review our current understanding of sunspots from the scales of their fine structure to their large scale (global structure including the processes of their formation and decay. Recently, sunspot models have undergone a dramatic change. In the past, several aspects of sunspot structure have been addressed by static MHD models with parametrized energy transport. Models of sunspot fine structure have been relying heavily on strong assumptions about flow and field geometry (e.g., flux-tubes, "gaps", convective rolls, which were motivated in part by the observed filamentary structure of penumbrae or the necessity of explaining the substantial energy transport required to maintain the penumbral brightness. However, none of these models could self-consistently explain all aspects of penumbral structure (energy transport, filamentation, Evershed flow. In recent years, 3D radiative MHD simulations have been advanced dramatically to the point at which models of complete sunspots with sufficient resolution to capture sunspot fine structure are feasible. Here overturning convection is the central element responsible for energy transport, filamentation leading to fine-structure and the driving of strong outflows. On the larger scale these models are also in the progress of addressing the subsurface structure of sunspots as well as sunspot formation. With this shift in modeling capabilities and the recent advances in high resolution observations, the future research will be guided by comparing observation and theory.

Mean occurrence frequency and temporal risk analysis of solar particle events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.

2006-01-01

The protection of astronauts from space radiation is required on future exploratory class and long-duration missions. For the accurate projections of radiation doses, a solar cycle statistical model, which quantifies the progression level within the cycle, has been developed. The resultant future cycle projection is then applied to estimate the mean frequency of solar particle events (SPEs) in the near future using a power law function of sunspot number. Detailed temporal behaviors of the recent large event and two historically large events of the August 1972 SPE and the November 1960 SPE are analyzed for dose-rate and cumulative dose equivalent at sensitive organs. Polyethylene shielded 'storm shelters' inside spacecraft are studied to limit astronauts' total exposure at a sensitive site within 10 cSv from a large event as a potential goal that fulfills the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) requirement

The ancient Egyptian civilization: maximum and minimum in coincidence with solar activity

Science.gov (United States)

Shaltout, M.

It is proved from the last 22 years observations of the total solar irradiance (TSI) from space by artificial satellites, that TSI shows negative correlation with the solar activity (sunspots, flares, and 10.7cm Radio emissions) from day to day, but shows positive correlations with the same activity from year to year (on the base of the annual average for each of them). Also, the solar constant, which estimated fromth ground stations for beam solar radiations observations during the 20 century indicate coincidence with the phases of the 11- year cycles. It is known from sunspot observations (250 years) , and from C14 analysis, that there are another long-term cycles for the solar activity larger than 11-year cycle. The variability of the total solar irradiance affecting on the climate, and the Nile flooding, where there is a periodicities in the Nile flooding similar to that of solar activity, from the analysis of about 1300 years of the Nile level observations atth Cairo. The secular variations of the Nile levels, regularly measured from the 7 toth 15 century A.D., clearly correlate with the solar variations, which suggests evidence for solar influence on the climatic changes in the East African tropics The civilization of the ancient Egyptian was highly correlated with the Nile flooding , where the river Nile was and still yet, the source of the life in the Valley and Delta inside high dry desert area. The study depends on long -time historical data for Carbon 14 (more than five thousands years), and chronical scanning for all the elements of the ancient Egyptian civilization starting from the firs t dynasty to the twenty six dynasty. The result shows coincidence between the ancient Egyptian civilization and solar activity. For example, the period of pyramids building, which is one of the Brilliant periods, is corresponding to maximum solar activity, where the periods of occupation of Egypt by Foreign Peoples corresponding to minimum solar activity. The decline

The effects of solarization on the performance of a gas turbine

Science.gov (United States)

Homann, Christiaan; van der Spuy, Johan; von Backström, Theodor

2016-05-01

Various hybrid solar gas turbine configurations exist. The Stellenbosch University Solar Power Thermodynamic (SUNSPOT) cycle consists of a heliostat field, solar receiver, primary Brayton gas turbine cycle, thermal storage and secondary Rankine steam cycle. This study investigates the effect of the solarization of a gas turbine on its performance and details the integration of a gas turbine into a solar power plant. A Rover 1S60 gas turbine was modelled in Flownex, a thermal-fluid system simulation and design code, and validated against a one-dimensional thermodynamic model at design input conditions. The performance map of a newly designed centrifugal compressor was created and implemented in Flownex. The effect of the improved compressor on the performance of the gas turbine was evident. The gas turbine cycle was expanded to incorporate different components of a CSP plant, such as a solar receiver and heliostat field. The solarized gas turbine model simulates the gas turbine performance when subjected to a typical variation in solar resource. Site conditions at the Helio100 solar field were investigated and the possibility of integrating a gas turbine within this system evaluated. Heat addition due to solar irradiation resulted in a decreased fuel consumption rate. The influence of the additional pressure drop over the solar receiver was evident as it leads to decreased net power output. The new compressor increased the overall performance of the gas turbine and compensated for pressure losses incurred by the addition of solar components. The simulated integration of the solarized gas turbine at Helio100 showed potential, although the solar irradiation is too little to run the gas turbine on solar heat alone. The simulation evaluates the feasibility of solarizing a gas turbine and predicts plant performance for such a turbine cycle.

Role of the Coronal Alfvén Speed in Modulating the Solar-wind Helium Abundance

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.-M.

2016-12-01

The helium abundance He/H in the solar wind is relatively constant at ˜0.04 in high-speed streams, but varies in phase with the sunspot number in slow wind, from ˜0.01 at solar minimum to ˜0.04 at maximum. Suggested mechanisms for helium fractionation have included frictional coupling to protons and resonant interactions with high-frequency Alfvénic fluctuations. We compare He/H measurements during 1995-2015 with coronal parameters derived from source-surface extrapolations of photospheric field maps. We find that the near-Earth helium abundance is an increasing function of the magnetic field strength and Alfvén speed v A in the outer corona, while being only weakly correlated with the proton flux density. Throughout the solar cycle, fast wind is associated with short-term increases in v A near the source surface; resonance with Alfvén waves, with v A and the relative speed of α-particles and protons decreasing with increasing heliocentric distance, may then lead to enhanced He/H at 1 au. The modulation of helium in slow wind reflects the tendency for the associated coronal Alfvén speeds to rise steeply from sunspot minimum, when this wind is concentrated around the source-surface neutral line, to sunspot maximum, when the source-surface field attains its peak strengths. The helium abundance near the source surface may represent a balance between collisional decoupling from protons and Alfvén wave acceleration.

Contrasting the solar rotation rate of cycles 23 and 24

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antia, H M; Basu, Sarbani

2013-01-01

The minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 was quite unusual compared with other minima for which detailed data are available and this pointed to the possibility that cycle 24 will be unusual. Cycle 24 is almost at its maximum now and we take this opportunity to compare and contrast the solar rotation rate and zonal flows between the two cycles. We find that the rotation rate during cycle 24 is slightly lower than that during cycle 23. Additionally we find that the poleward branch of the zonal flow that is believed to be the harbinger of the next solar cycle is very week in cycle 24.

Solar cycle variations in IMF intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, J.H.

1979-01-01

Annual averages of logarithms of hourly interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) intensities, obtained from geocentric spacecraft between November 1963 and December 1977, reveal the following solar cycle variation. For 2--3 years at each solar minimum period, the IMF intensity is depressed by 10--15% relative to its mean value realized during a broad 9-year period contered at solar maximum. No systematic variations occur during this 9-year period. The solar minimum decrease, although small in relation to variations in some other solar wind parameters, is both statistically and physically significant

Solar panel thermal cycling testing by solar simulation and infrared radiation methods

Science.gov (United States)

Nuss, H. E.

1980-01-01

For the solar panels of the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites OTS/MAROTS and ECS/MARECS the thermal cycling tests were performed by using solar simulation methods. The performance data of two different solar simulators used and the thermal test results are described. The solar simulation thermal cycling tests for the ECS/MARECS solar panels were carried out with the aid of a rotatable multipanel test rig by which simultaneous testing of three solar panels was possible. As an alternative thermal test method, the capability of an infrared radiation method was studied and infrared simulation tests for the ultralight panel and the INTELSAT 5 solar panels were performed. The setup and the characteristics of the infrared radiation unit using a quartz lamp array of approx. 15 sq and LN2-cooled shutter and the thermal test results are presented. The irradiation uniformity, the solar panel temperature distribution, temperature changing rates for both test methods are compared. Results indicate the infrared simulation is an effective solar panel thermal testing method.

Skills, sunspots and cycles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Busato, Francesco; Marchetti, Enrico

This paper explores the ability of a class of one-sector,multi-input models to generate indeterminate equilibrium paths, andendogenous cycles, without relying on factors' hoarding. The modelpresents a novel theoretical economic mechanism that supportssunspot-driven expansions without requiring...

THE MORPHOLOGIC PROPERTIES OF MAGNETIC NETWORKS OVER THE SOLAR CYCLE 23

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang Chong; Yan Yihua; Zhang Yin; Tan Baolin; Li Gang, E-mail: chuang@nao.cas.cn, E-mail: yyh@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China)

2012-11-10

The morphologic properties of the magnetic networks during Carrington Rotations (CRs) 1955-2091 (from 1999 to 2010) have been analyzed by applying the watershed algorithm to magnetograms observed by the Michelson Doppler Interferometer on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory spacecraft. We find that the average area of magnetic cells on the solar surface at lower latitudes (within {+-}50 Degree-Sign ) is smaller than that at higher latitudes (beyond {+-}50 Degree-Sign ). Statistical analysis of these data indicates that the magnetic networks are fractal in nature and the average fractal dimension is D{sub f} = 1.253 {+-} 0.011. We also find that both the fractal dimension and the size of the magnetic networks are anti-correlated with the sunspot area. This is perhaps because a strong magnetic field can suppress spatially modulated oscillation and compress the boundaries of network cells, leading to smoother cell boundaries. The fractal dimension of the cell deviates from that predicted from an isobar of Kolmogorov k {sup -5/3} homogeneous turbulence.

Distinct Pattern of Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays above a High Geomagnetic Cutoff Rigidity

Science.gov (United States)

Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Clem, John; Evenson, Paul; Pyle, Roger; Mitthumsiri, Warit; Ruffolo, David; Sáiz, Alejandro; Nutaro, Tanin

2018-05-01

Solar modulation refers to Galactic cosmic-ray variations with the ∼11 yr sunspot cycle and ∼22 yr solar magnetic cycle and is relevant to the space radiation environment and effects on Earth’s atmosphere. Its complicated dependence on solar and heliospheric conditions is only roughly understood and has been empirically modeled in terms of a single modulation parameter. Most analyses of solar modulation use neutron monitor (NM) data from locations with relatively low geomagnetic cutoff rigidity, i.e., the threshold for cosmic rays to penetrate Earth’s magnetic field. The Princess Sirindhorn Neutron Monitor at Doi Inthanon, Thailand, has the world’s highest cutoff rigidity (≈17 GV) where observations span a complete solar modulation cycle (since late 2007). The pattern of solar modulation at Doi Inthanon during 2011–2014 was qualitatively very different from that at a low geomagnetic cutoff and is not well described by the same modulation parameter. At other times, NM count rates from Doi Inthanon and McMurdo, Antarctica (cutoff ∼1 GV), were linearly correlated and confirm the observation from latitude surveys in the previous solar cycle that the slope of the correlation changes with solar magnetic polarity. Low solar magnetic tilt angles (magnetic field, which is consistent with an increase in diffusion at high rigidity short-circuiting the effects of drifts and the heliospheric current sheet.

Effects of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray cycles on the modulation of the annual average temperature at two sites in southern Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Frigo, Everton; Antonelli, Francesco; da Silva, Djeniffer S. S.; Lima, Pedro C. M.; Pacca, Igor I. G.; Bageston, José V.

2018-04-01

Quasi-periodic variations in solar activity and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) on decadal and bidecadal timescales have been suggested as a climate forcing mechanism for many regions on Earth. One of these regions is southern Brazil, where the lowest values during the last century were observed for the total geomagnetic field intensity at the Earth's surface. These low values are due to the passage of the center of the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA), which crosses the Brazilian territory from east to west following a latitude of ˜ 26°. In areas with low geomagnetic intensity, such as the SAMA, the incidence of GCRs is increased. Consequently, possible climatic effects related to the GCRs tend to be maximized in this region. In this work, we investigate the relationship between the ˜ 11-year and ˜ 22-year cycles that are related to solar activity and GCRs and the annual average temperature recorded between 1936 and 2014 at two weather stations, both located near a latitude of 26° S but at different longitudes. The first of these stations (Torres - TOR) is located in the coastal region, and the other (Iraí - IRA) is located in the interior, around 450 km from the Atlantic Ocean. Sunspot data and the solar modulation potential for cosmic rays were used as proxies for the solar activity and the GCRs, respectively. Our investigation of the influence of decadal and bidecadal cycles in temperature data was carried out using the wavelet transform coherence (WTC) spectrum. The results indicate that periodicities of 11 years may have continuously modulated the climate at TOR via a nonlinear mechanism, while at IRA, the effects of this 11-year modulation period were intermittent. Four temperature maxima, separated by around 20 years, were detected in the same years at both weather stations. These temperature maxima are almost coincident with the maxima of the odd solar cycles. Furthermore, these maxima occur after transitions from even to odd solar cycles, that is

Solar Cycle Variation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2010-08-25

Aug 25, 2010 ... 3Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences ... ICME-associated CME latitudes during solar cycle 23 using Song et al.'s method. ..... latitudes during the three phases of cycle 23 separately for the northern (left panel) and southern. (right panel) ...

Distribution of electric currents in sunspots from photosphere to corona

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gosain, Sanjay [National Solar Observatory, 950 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States); Démoulin, Pascal [Observatoire de Paris, LESIA, UMR 8109 (CNRS), F-92195 Meudon Principal Cedex (France); López Fuentes, Marcelo [Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE), UBA-CONICET, CC. 67, Suc. 28 Buenos Aires 1428 (Argentina)

2014-09-20

We present a study of two regular sunspots that exhibit nearly uniform twist from the photosphere to the corona. We derive the twist parameter in the corona and in the chromosphere by minimizing the difference between the extrapolated linear force-free field model field lines and the observed intensity structures in the extreme-ultraviolet images of the Sun. The chromospheric structures appear more twisted than the coronal structures by a factor of two. Further, we derive the vertical component of electric current density, j{sub z} , using vector magnetograms from the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT). The spatial distribution of j{sub z} has a zebra pattern of strong positive and negative values owing to the penumbral fibril structure resolved by Hinode/SOT. This zebra pattern is due to the derivative of the horizontal magnetic field across the thin fibrils; therefore, it is strong and masks weaker currents that might be present, for example, as a result of the twist of the sunspot. We decompose j{sub z} into the contribution due to the derivatives along and across the direction of the horizontal field, which follows the fibril orientation closely. The map of the tangential component has more distributed currents that are coherent with the chromospheric and coronal twisted structures. Moreover, it allows us to map and identify the direct and return currents in the sunspots. Finally, this decomposition of j{sub z} is general and can be applied to any vector magnetogram in order to better identify the weaker large-scale currents that are associated with coronal twisted/sheared structures.

IMPACT OF A REALISTIC DENSITY STRATIFICATION ON A SIMPLE SOLAR DYNAMO CALCULATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardoso, Elisa; Lopes, Ilidio, E-mail: ilidio.lopes@ist.utl.pt [Centro Multidisciplinar de Astrofisica, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal)

2012-09-20

In our Sun, the magnetic cycle is driven by the dynamo action occurring inside the convection zone, beneath the surface. Rotation couples with plasma turbulent motions to produce organized magnetic fields that erupt at the surface and undergo relatively regular cycles of polarity reversal. Among others, the axisymmetric dynamo models have been proved to be a quite useful tool to understand the dynamical processes responsible for the evolution of the solar magnetic cycle and the formation of the sunspots. Here, we discuss the role played by the radial density stratification on the critical layers of the Sun on the solar dynamo. The current view is that a polytropic description of the density stratification from beneath the tachocline region up to the Sun's surface is sufficient for the current precision of axisymmetric dynamo models. In this work, by using an up-to-date density profile obtained from a standard solar model, which is itself consistent with helioseismic data, we show that the detailed peculiarities of the density in critical regions of the Sun's interior, such as the tachocline, the base of the convection zone, the layers of partial ionization of hydrogen and helium, and the super-adiabatic layer, play a non-negligible role on the evolution of the solar magnetic cycle. Furthermore, we found that the chemical composition of the solar model plays a minor role in the formation and evolution of the solar magnetic cycle.

IMPACT OF A REALISTIC DENSITY STRATIFICATION ON A SIMPLE SOLAR DYNAMO CALCULATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardoso, Elisa; Lopes, Ilídio

2012-01-01

In our Sun, the magnetic cycle is driven by the dynamo action occurring inside the convection zone, beneath the surface. Rotation couples with plasma turbulent motions to produce organized magnetic fields that erupt at the surface and undergo relatively regular cycles of polarity reversal. Among others, the axisymmetric dynamo models have been proved to be a quite useful tool to understand the dynamical processes responsible for the evolution of the solar magnetic cycle and the formation of the sunspots. Here, we discuss the role played by the radial density stratification on the critical layers of the Sun on the solar dynamo. The current view is that a polytropic description of the density stratification from beneath the tachocline region up to the Sun's surface is sufficient for the current precision of axisymmetric dynamo models. In this work, by using an up-to-date density profile obtained from a standard solar model, which is itself consistent with helioseismic data, we show that the detailed peculiarities of the density in critical regions of the Sun's interior, such as the tachocline, the base of the convection zone, the layers of partial ionization of hydrogen and helium, and the super-adiabatic layer, play a non-negligible role on the evolution of the solar magnetic cycle. Furthermore, we found that the chemical composition of the solar model plays a minor role in the formation and evolution of the solar magnetic cycle.

Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused by solar inertial motion?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Charvátová

Full Text Available A solar activity cycle of about 2400 years has until now been of uncertain origin. Recent results indicate it is caused by solar inertial motion. First we describe the 178.7-year basic cycle of solar motion. The longer cycle, over an 8000 year interval, is found to average 2402.2 years. This corresponds to the Jupiter/Heliocentre/Barycentre alignments (9.8855 × 243. Within each cycle an exceptional segment of 370 years has been found characterized by a looping pattern by a trefoil or quasitrefoil geometry. Solar activity, evidenced by ¹⁴C tree-ring proxies, shows the same pattern. Solar motion is computable in advance, so this provides a basis for future predictive assessments. The next 370-year segment will occur between AD 2240 and 2610.

Key words: Solar physics (celestial mechanics

SOLAR SOURCES OF 3He-RICH SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS IN SOLAR CYCLE 24

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitta, Nariaki V.; Mason, Glenn M.; Wang, Linghua; Cohen, Christina M. S.; Wiedenbeck, Mark E.

2015-01-01

Using high-cadence EUV images obtained by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we investigate the solar sources of 26 3 He-rich solar energetic particle events at ≲1 MeV nucleon −1 that were well-observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer during solar cycle 24. Identification of the solar sources is based on the association of 3 He-rich events with type III radio bursts and electron events as observed by Wind. The source locations are further verified in EUV images from the Solar and Terrestrial Relations Observatory, which provides information on solar activities in the regions not visible from the Earth. Based on AIA observations, 3 He-rich events are not only associated with coronal jets as emphasized in solar cycle 23 studies, but also with more spatially extended eruptions. The properties of the 3 He-rich events do not appear to be strongly correlated with those of the source regions. As in the previous studies, the magnetic connection between the source region and the observer is not always reproduced adequately by the simple potential field source surface model combined with the Parker spiral. Instead, we find a broad longitudinal distribution of the source regions extending well beyond the west limb, with the longitude deviating significantly from that expected from the observed solar wind speed

Open solar flux estimates from near-Earth measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field: comparison of the first two perihelion passes of the Ulysses spacecraft

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Lockwood

2004-04-01

Full Text Available Results from all phases of the orbits of the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the magnitude of the radial component of the heliospheric field is approximately independent of heliographic latitude. This result allows the use of near-Earth observations to compute the total open flux of the Sun. For example, using satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field, the average open solar flux was shown to have risen by 29% between 1963 and 1987 and using the aa geomagnetic index it was found to have doubled during the 20th century. It is therefore important to assess fully the accuracy of the result and to check that it applies to all phases of the solar cycle. The first perihelion pass of the Ulysses spacecraft was close to sunspot minimum, and recent data from the second perihelion pass show that the result also holds at solar maximum. The high level of correlation between the open flux derived from the various methods strongly supports the Ulysses discovery that the radial field component is independent of latitude. We show here that the errors introduced into open solar flux estimates by assuming that the heliospheric field's radial component is independent of latitude are similar for the two passes and are of order 25% for daily values, falling to 5% for averaging timescales of 27 days or greater. We compare here the results of four methods for estimating the open solar flux with results from the first and second perehelion passes by Ulysses. We find that the errors are lowest (1–5% for averages over the entire perehelion passes lasting near 320 days, for near-Earth methods, based on either interplanetary magnetic field observations or the aa geomagnetic activity index. The corresponding errors for the Solanki et al. (2000 model are of the order of 9–15% and for the PFSS method, based on solar magnetograms, are of the order of 13–47%. The model of Solanki et al. is based on the continuity equation of open flux, and uses the

Breathing of heliospheric structures triggered by the solar-cycle activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Scherer

Full Text Available Solar wind ram pressure variations occuring within the solar activity cycle are communicated to the outer heliosphere as complicated time-variabilities, but repeating its typical form with the activity period of about 11 years. At outer heliospheric regions, the main surviving solar cycle feature is a periodic variation of the solar wind dynamical pressure or momentum flow, as clearly recognized by observations of the VOYAGER-1/2 space probes. This long-periodic variation of the solar wind dynamical pressure is modeled here through application of appropriately time-dependent inner boundary conditions within our multifluid code to describe the solar wind – interstellar medium interaction. As we can show, it takes several solar cycles until the heliospheric structures adapt to an average location about which they carry out a periodic breathing, however, lagged in phase with respect to the solar cycle. The dynamically active heliosphere behaves differently from a static heliosphere and especially shows a historic hysteresis in the sense that the shock structures move out to larger distances than explained by the average ram pressure. Obviously, additional energies are pumped into the heliosheath by means of density and pressure waves which are excited. These waves travel outwards through the interface from the termination shock towards the bow shock. Depending on longitude, the heliospheric sheath region memorizes 2–3 (upwind and up to 6–7 (downwind preceding solar activity cycles, i.e. the cycle-induced waves need corresponding travel times for the passage over the heliosheath. Within our multifluid code we also adequately describe the solar cycle variations in the energy distributions of anomalous and galactic cosmic rays, respectively. According to these results the distribution of these high energetic species cannot be correctly described on the basis of the actually prevailing solar wind conditions.

Key words. Interplanetary

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Hathaway, David H.

2005-01-01

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

The effects of solar variability on climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffert, M.I.

1990-01-01

It has been hypothesized for at least a century that some of the observed variance in global temperature records arises from variations in solar output. Theories of solar-variability effects on climate could not be tested directly prior to satellite measurements because uncertainties in ground-based measurements of solar irradiance were larger than the solar variations themselves. Measurements by the Active Cavity Radiometer (ACRIM) onboard the Solar Max satellite and by the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) instrument onboard Nimbus 6 are now available which indicate solar-constant variations are positively correlated with solar activity over an 11-yr solar cycle, and are of order ± 1.0 W m -2 relative to a mean solar constant of S 0 = 1,367 W m -2 , ΔS/S 0 ∼ ± 0.07%. For a typical climate sensitivity parameter of β = S 0 ∂T/∂S ∼ 100 C, the corresponding variations in radiative equilibrium temperature at the Earth's surface are ΔT e ∼ ± 0.07 C. The realized temperature variations from solar forcing, ΔT, can be significantly smaller because of thermal damping by the ocean. The author considers effects of solar variability on the observed and projected history of the global temperature record in light of this data using an upwelling-diffusion ocean model to assess the effect of ocean thermal inertia on the thermal response. The response to harmonic variations of the 11-yr sunspot cycle is of order ΔT ∼ ± 0.02 C, though the coupling between response and forcing is stronger for long-term variations in the envelope of the solar cycle which more nearly match the thermal response time of the deep ocean

Solar Flares and Their Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Mitzi L.

1999-01-01

Solar flares and coronal mass ejection's (CMES) can strongly affect the local environment at the Earth. A major challenge for solar physics is to understand the physical mechanisms responsible for the onset of solar flares. Flares, characterized by a sudden release of energy (approx. 10(exp 32) ergs for the largest events) within the solar atmosphere, result in the acceleration of electrons, protons, and heavier ions as well as the production of electromagnetic radiation from hard X-rays to km radio waves (wavelengths approx. = 10(exp -9) cm to 10(exp 6) cm). Observations suggest that solar flares and sunspots are strongly linked. For example, a study of data from 1956-1969, reveals that approx. 93 percent of major flares originate in active regions with spots. Furthermore, the global structure of the sunspot magnetic field can be correlated with flare activity. This talk will review what we know about flare causes and effects and will discuss techniques for quantifying parameters, which may lead to a prediction of solar flares.

ROLE OF THE CORONAL ALFVÉN SPEED IN MODULATING THE SOLAR-WIND HELIUM ABUNDANCE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Y.-M., E-mail: yi.wang@nrl.navy.mil [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States)

2016-12-20

The helium abundance He/H in the solar wind is relatively constant at ∼0.04 in high-speed streams, but varies in phase with the sunspot number in slow wind, from ∼0.01 at solar minimum to ∼0.04 at maximum. Suggested mechanisms for helium fractionation have included frictional coupling to protons and resonant interactions with high-frequency Alfvénic fluctuations. We compare He/H measurements during 1995–2015 with coronal parameters derived from source-surface extrapolations of photospheric field maps. We find that the near-Earth helium abundance is an increasing function of the magnetic field strength and Alfvén speed v {sub A} in the outer corona, while being only weakly correlated with the proton flux density. Throughout the solar cycle, fast wind is associated with short-term increases in v {sub A} near the source surface; resonance with Alfvén waves, with v {sub A} and the relative speed of α -particles and protons decreasing with increasing heliocentric distance, may then lead to enhanced He/H at 1 au. The modulation of helium in slow wind reflects the tendency for the associated coronal Alfvén speeds to rise steeply from sunspot minimum, when this wind is concentrated around the source-surface neutral line, to sunspot maximum, when the source-surface field attains its peak strengths. The helium abundance near the source surface may represent a balance between collisional decoupling from protons and Alfvén wave acceleration.

Solar Flare Super-Events: When they Can Occur and the Energy Limits of their Realization

Science.gov (United States)

Ishkov, Vitaly N.

2015-03-01

For the successful development of terrestrial civilization it is necessary to estimate the space factors, including phenomena on Sun, which can ruin it or cause such catastrophic loss, that the restoration to the initial level can take unacceptably long time. Super-powerful solar flares are the only such phenomena. Therefore an attempt is undertaken to estimate the possibility of such super-event occurrence at this stage of our star evolution. Since solar flare events are the consequence of the newly emerging magnetic fluxes interacting with the already existing magnetic fields of active regions, are investigated the observed cases which lead to the realization of such super-events. From the observations of the maximal magnetic fluxes during the period of reliable solar observations, the conclusion is made that the super- extreme solar flares cannot significantly exceed the most powerful solar flares which have already been observed. On the statistics of the reliable solar cycles the sunspot groups, in which occurred the most powerful solar super-events (August- September 1859 - solar cycle 10; June 1991 - SC 22; October-November 2003 - SC 23) appeared in the periods of the solar magnetic field reorganization between the epochs of "increased" and "lowered" solar activity.

Solar-cycle variation of zonal and meridional flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komm, R; Howe, R; Hill, F; Hernandez, I Gonzalez; Haber, D

2011-01-01

We study the variation with the solar cycle of the zonal and meridional flows in the near-surface layers of the solar convection zone. We have analyzed MDI Dynamics-Program data with ring-diagram analysis covering the rising phase of cycle 23, while the analyzed GONG high-resolution data cover the maximum and declining phase of cycle 23. For the zonal flow, the migration with latitude of the flow pattern is apparent in the deeper layers, while for the meridional flow, a migration with latitude is apparent only in the layers close to the surface. The faster-than-average bands of the zonal flow associated with the new cycle are clearly visible. Similarly, a pattern related to the new cycle appears in the residual meridional flow. We also study the flow differences between the hemispheres during the course of the solar cycle. The difference pattern of the meridional flow is slanted in latitude straddling the faster-than-average band of the torsional oscillation pattern in the zonal flow. The difference pattern of the zonal flow, on the other hand, resembles the cycle variation of the meridional flow. In addition, the meridional flow during the minimum of cycle 23/24 appears to be slightly stronger than during the previous minimum of cycle 22/23.

On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

2016-01-01

The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

A combined cycle utilizing LNG and low-temperature solar energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rao, Wen-Ji; Zhao, Liang-Ju; Liu, Chao; Zhang, Mo-Geng

2013-01-01

This paper has proposed a combined cycle, in which low-temperature solar energy and cold energy of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be effectively utilized together. Comparative analysis based on a same net work output between the proposed combined cycle and separated solar ORC and LNG vapor system has been done. The results show that, for the combined cycle, a decrease of nearly 82.2% on the area of solar collector is obtained and the area of heat exchanger decreases by 31.7%. Moreover, exergy efficiency is higher than both two separated systems. This work has also dealt with the thermodynamic analyses for the proposed cycle. The results show that R143a followed by propane and propene emerges as most suitable fluid. Moreover, with a regenerator added in the cycle, performance improvement is obtained for the reduction on area of solar collector and increase on system efficiency and exergy efficiency. -- Highlights: • A combined cycle utilizing low-temperature solar energy and LNG together is proposed. • Five objection functions are used to decide the best working fluids. • Cycle with a regenerator has good performance

The effects of low solar activity upon the cosmic radiation and the interplanetary magnetic field over the past 10,000 years, and implications for the future. (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

McCracken, K. G.; McDonald, F. B.; Beer, J.; Abreu, J.; Steinhilber, F.

2009-12-01

The paleo-cosmic ray records based on the radionuclides 10Be and 14 C show that the Sun has experienced twenty two extended periods of low activity (similar to, or longer than the Maunder Minimum) in the past 10,000 years, and many more periods of reduced activity for 2 or more solar cycles similar to the period 1880-1910. The 10,000 yr record shows that solar activity has exhibited three persistent periodicities that modulate the amplitude of the Hale (11/22 year) cycle. They are the Gleissberg (~85 yr); the de Vries (~208 yr); and the Hallstatt (~2200 yr) periodicities. It is possible that the Sun is entering a somewhat delayed Gleissberg repetition of the 1880-1910 period of reduced activity or a de Vries repetition of the Dalton Minimum of 1800-1820; or a combination of both. The historic record shows that the cosmic ray intensity at sunspot minimum increases substantially during periods of reduced solar activity- during the Dalton minimum it was twice the present-day sunspot minimum intensity at 2GeV/nucleon ; and 10 times greater at 100 MeV/nucleon. The Hale cycle of solar activity continued throughout the Spoerer (1420-1540) and Maunder Minima, and it appears possible that the local interstellar cosmic ray spectrum was occasionally incident on Earth. Using the cosmic ray transport equation to invert the paleo-cosmic ray record shows that the magnetic field was Dalton Minimum.

Preliminary observations and results obtained with the ultraviolet spectrometer and polarimeter. [for Solar Maximum Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Tandberg-Hassen, E.; Cheng, C. C.; Athay, R. G.; Beckers, J. M.; Brandt, J. C.; Chapman, R. D.; Bruner, E. C.; Henze, W.; Hyder, C. L.; Gurman, J. B.

1981-01-01

New observation with the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter (UVSP) of a number of manifestations of solar activity obtained during the first three months of Solar Maximum Mission operations are presented. Attention is given to polarimetry in sunspots, oscillations above sunspots, density diagnostics of transition-zone plasmas in active regions, and the eruptive prominence - coronal transient link.

HELIOSEISMIC HOLOGRAPHY OF SIMULATED SUNSPOTS: MAGNETIC AND THERMAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO TRAVEL TIMES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Felipe, T. [Departamento de Astrofísica, Universidad de La Laguna, E-38205 La Laguna, Tenerife (Spain); Braun, D. C.; Crouch, A. D. [NorthWest Research Associates, Colorado Research Associates, Boulder, CO 80301 (United States); Birch, A. C., E-mail: tobias@iac.es [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany)

2016-10-01

Wave propagation through sunspots involves conversion between waves of acoustic and magnetic character. In addition, the thermal structure of sunspots is very different than that of the quiet Sun. As a consequence, the interpretation of local helioseismic measurements of sunspots has long been a challenge. With the aim of understanding these measurements, we carry out numerical simulations of wave propagation through sunspots. Helioseismic holography measurements made from the resulting simulated wavefields show qualitative agreement with observations of real sunspots. We use additional numerical experiments to determine, separately, the influence of the thermal structure of the sunspot and the direct effect of the sunspot magnetic field. We use the ray approximation to show that the travel-time shifts in the thermal (non-magnetic) sunspot model are primarily produced by changes in the wave path due to the Wilson depression rather than variations in the wave speed. This shows that inversions for the subsurface structure of sunspots must account for local changes in the density. In some ranges of horizontal phase speed and frequency there is agreement (within the noise level in the simulations) between the travel times measured in the full magnetic sunspot model and the thermal model. If this conclusion proves to be robust for a wide range of models, it would suggest a path toward inversions for sunspot structure.

HELIOSEISMIC HOLOGRAPHY OF SIMULATED SUNSPOTS: MAGNETIC AND THERMAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO TRAVEL TIMES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Felipe, T.; Braun, D. C.; Crouch, A. D.; Birch, A. C.

2016-01-01

Wave propagation through sunspots involves conversion between waves of acoustic and magnetic character. In addition, the thermal structure of sunspots is very different than that of the quiet Sun. As a consequence, the interpretation of local helioseismic measurements of sunspots has long been a challenge. With the aim of understanding these measurements, we carry out numerical simulations of wave propagation through sunspots. Helioseismic holography measurements made from the resulting simulated wavefields show qualitative agreement with observations of real sunspots. We use additional numerical experiments to determine, separately, the influence of the thermal structure of the sunspot and the direct effect of the sunspot magnetic field. We use the ray approximation to show that the travel-time shifts in the thermal (non-magnetic) sunspot model are primarily produced by changes in the wave path due to the Wilson depression rather than variations in the wave speed. This shows that inversions for the subsurface structure of sunspots must account for local changes in the density. In some ranges of horizontal phase speed and frequency there is agreement (within the noise level in the simulations) between the travel times measured in the full magnetic sunspot model and the thermal model. If this conclusion proves to be robust for a wide range of models, it would suggest a path toward inversions for sunspot structure.

New reconstruction of the sunspot group numbers since 1739 using direct calibration and "backbone" methods

Science.gov (United States)

Chatzistergos, Theodosios; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Solanki, Sami K.

2017-06-01

Context. The group sunspot number (GSN) series constitute the longest instrumental astronomical database providing information on solar activity. This database is a compilation of observations by many individual observers, and their inter-calibration has usually been performed using linear rescaling. There are multiple published series that show different long-term trends for solar activity. Aims: We aim at producing a GSN series, with a non-linear non-parametric calibration. The only underlying assumptions are that the differences between the various series are due to different acuity thresholds of the observers, and that the threshold of each observer remains constant throughout the observing period. Methods: We used a daisy chain process with backbone (BB) observers and calibrated all overlapping observers to them. We performed the calibration of each individual observer with a probability distribution function (PDF) matrix constructed considering all daily values for the overlapping period with the BB. The calibration of the BBs was carried out in a similar manner. The final series was constructed by merging different BB series. We modelled the propagation of errors straightforwardly with Monte Carlo simulations. A potential bias due to the selection of BBs was investigated and the effect was shown to lie within the 1σ interval of the produced series. The exact selection of the reference period was shown to have a rather small effect on our calibration as well. Results: The final series extends back to 1739 and includes data from 314 observers. This series suggests moderate activity during the 18th and 19th century, which is significantly lower than the high level of solar activity predicted by other recent reconstructions applying linear regressions. Conclusions: The new series provides a robust reconstruction, based on modern and non-parametric methods, of sunspot group numbers since 1739, and it confirms the existence of the modern grand maximum of solar

Update on a Solar Magnetic Catalog Spanning Four Solar Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Vargas-Acosta, Juan Pablo; Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; Vargas Dominguez, Santiago; Werginz, Zachary; DeLuca, Michael D.; Longcope, Dana; Harvey, J. W.; Windmueller, John; Zhang, Jie; Martens, Petrus C.

2017-08-01

Bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are the cornerstone of solar cycle propagation, the building blocks that give structure to the solar atmosphere, and the origin of the majority of space weather events. However, in spite of their importance, there is no homogeneous BMR catalog spanning the era of systematic solar magnetic field measurements. Here we present the results of an ongoing project to address this deficiency applying the Bipolar Active Region Detection (BARD) code to magnetograms from the 512 Channel of the Kitt Peak Vaccum Telescope, SOHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI.The BARD code automatically identifies BMRs and tracks them as they are rotated by differential rotation. The output of the automatic detection is supervised by a human observer to correct possible mistakes made by the automatic algorithm (like incorrect pairings and tracking mislabels). Extra passes are made to integrate fragmented regions as well as to balance the flux between BMR polarities. At the moment, our BMR database includes nearly 10,000 unique objects (detected and tracked) belonging to four separate solar cycles (21-24).

Solar wind structure out of the ecliptic plane over solar cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Sokol, J. M.; Bzowski, M.; Tokumaru, M.

2017-12-01

Sun constantly emits a stream of plasma known as solar wind. Ground-based observations of the solar wind speed through the interplanetary scintillations (IPS) of radio flux from distant point sources and in-situ measurements by Ulysses mission revealed that the solar wind flow has different characteristics depending on the latitude. This latitudinal structure evolves with the cycle of solar activity. The knowledge on the evolution of solar wind structure is important for understanding the interaction between the interstellar medium surrounding the Sun and the solar wind, which is responsible for creation of the heliosphere. The solar wind structure must be taken into account in interpretation of most of the observations of heliospheric energetic neutral atoms, interstellar neutral atoms, pickup ions, and heliospheric backscatter glow. The information on the solar wind structure is not any longer available from direct measurements after the termination of Ulysses mission and the only source of the solar wind out of the ecliptic plane is the IPS observations. However, the solar wind structure obtained from this method contains inevitable gaps in the time- and heliolatitude coverage. Sokół et al 2015 used the solar wind speed data out of the ecliptic plane retrieved from the IPS observations performed by Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (Nagoya University, Japan) and developed a methodology to construct a model of evolution of solar wind speed and density from 1985 to 2013 that fills the data gaps. In this paper we will present a refined model of the solar wind speed and density structure as a function of heliographic latitude updated by the most recent data from IPS observations. And we will discuss methods of extrapolation of the solar wind structure out of the ecliptic plane for the past solar cycles, when the data were not available, as well as forecasting for few years upward.

Forecasting the peak of the present solar activity cycle 24

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, R. H.; Marzouk, B. A.

2018-06-01

Solar forecasting of the level of sun Activity is very important subject for all space programs. Most predictions are based on the physical conditions prevailing at or before the solar cycle minimum preceding the maximum in question. Our aim is to predict the maximum peak of cycle 24 using precursor techniques in particular those using spotless event, geomagnetic aamin. index and solar flux F10.7. Also prediction of exact date of the maximum (Tr) is taken in consideration. A study of variation over previous spotless event for cycles 7-23 and that for even cycles (8-22) are carried out for the prediction. Linear correlation between maximum of solar cycles (RM) and spotless event around the preceding minimum gives R24t = 88.4 with rise time Tr = 4.6 years. For the even cycles R24E = 77.9 with rise time Tr = 4.5 y's. Based on the average aamin. index for cycles (12-23), we estimate the expected amplitude for cycle 24 to be Raamin = 99.4 and 98.1 with time rise of Traamin = 4.04 & 4.3 years for both the total and even cycles in consecutive. The application of the data of solar flux F10.7 which cover only cycles (19-23) was taken in consideration and gives predicted maximum amplitude R24 10.7 = 126 with rise time Tr107 = 3.7 years, which are over estimation. Our result indicating to somewhat weaker of cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23.

Meridional Motions and Reynolds Stress Determined by Using Kanzelhöhe Drawings and White Light Solar Images from 1964 to 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Ruždjak, Domagoj; Sudar, Davor; Brajša, Roman; Skokić, Ivica; Poljančić Beljan, Ivana; Jurdana-Šepić, Rajka; Hanslmeier, Arnold; Veronig, Astrid; Pötzi, Werner

2018-04-01

Sunspot position data obtained from Kanzelhöhe Observatory for Solar and Environmental Research (KSO) sunspot drawings and white light images in the period 1964 to 2016 were used to calculate the rotational and meridional velocities of the solar plasma. Velocities were calculated from daily shifts of sunspot groups and an iterative process of calculation of the differential rotation profiles was used to discard outliers. We found a differential rotation profile and meridional motions in agreement with previous studies using sunspots as tracers and conclude that the quality of the KSO data is appropriate for analysis of solar velocity patterns. By analyzing the correlation and covariance of meridional velocities and rotation rate residuals we found that the angular momentum is transported towards the solar equator. The magnitude and latitudinal dependence of the horizontal component of the Reynolds stress tensor calculated is sufficient to maintain the observed solar differential rotation profile. Therefore, our results confirm that the Reynolds stress is the dominant mechanism responsible for transport of angular momentum towards the solar equator.

STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION OF THE HIGH-FREQUENCY CONTENT OF DAILY SUNSPOTS AND EVIDENCE FOR REGIME CHANGES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shapoval, A.; Le Mouël, J.-L.; Courtillot, V.; Shnirman, M.

2015-01-01

The irregularity index λ is applied to the high-frequency content of daily sunspot numbers ISSN. This λ is a modification of the standard maximal Lyapunov exponent. It is computed here as a function of embedding dimension m, within four-year time windows centered at the maxima of Schwabe cycles. The λ(m) curves form separate clusters (pre-1923 and post-1933). This supports a regime transition and narrows its occurrence to cycle 16, preceding the growth of activity leading to the Modern Maximum. The two regimes are reproduced by a simple autoregressive process AR(1), with the mean of Poisson noise undergoing 11 yr modulation. The autocorrelation a of the process (linked to sunspot lifetime) is a ≈ 0.8 for 1850-1923 and ≈0.95 for 1933-2013. The AR(1) model suggests that groups of spots appear with a Poisson rate and disappear at a constant rate. We further applied the irregularity index to the daily sunspot group number series for the northern and southern hemispheres, provided by the Greenwich Royal Observatory (RGO), in order to study a possible desynchronization. Correlations between the north and south λ(m) curves vary quite strongly with time and indeed show desynchronization. This may reflect a slow change in the dimension of an underlying dynamical system. The ISSN and RGO series of group numbers do not imply an identical mechanism, but both uncover a regime change at a similar time. Computation of the irregularity index near the maximum of cycle 24 will help in checking whether yet another regime change is under way

Solar magnetic field studies using the 12 micron emission lines. II - Stokes profiles and vector field samples in sunspots

Science.gov (United States)

Hewagama, Tilak; Deming, Drake; Jennings, Donald E.; Osherovich, Vladimir; Wiedemann, Gunter; Zipoy, David; Mickey, Donald L.; Garcia, Howard

1993-01-01

Polarimetric observations at 12 microns of two sunpots are reported. The horizontal distribution of parameters such as magnetic field strength, inclination, azimuth, and magnetic field filling factors are presented along with information about the height dependence of the magnetic field strength. Comparisons with contemporary magnetostatic sunspot models are made. The magnetic data are used to estimate the height of 12 micron line formation. From the data, it is concluded that within a stable sunspot there are no regions that are magnetically filamentary, in the sense of containing both strong-field and field-free regions.

TRANSITION-REGION/CORONAL SIGNATURES AND MAGNETIC SETTING OF SUNSPOT PENUMBRAL JETS: HINODE (SOT/FG), Hi-C, AND SDO/AIA OBSERVATIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tiwari, Sanjiv K.; Moore, Ronald L.; Winebarger, Amy R.; Alpert, Shane E.

2016-01-01

Penumbral microjets (PJs) are transient narrow bright features in the chromosphere of sunspot penumbrae, first characterized by Katsukawa et al. using the Ca ii H-line filter on Hinode's Solar Optical Telescope (SOT). It was proposed that the PJs form as a result of reconnection between two magnetic components of penumbrae (spines and interspines), and that they could contribute to the transition region (TR) and coronal heating above sunspot penumbrae. We propose a modified picture of formation of PJs based on recent results on the internal structure of sunspot penumbral filaments. Using data of a sunspot from Hinode/SOT, High Resolution Coronal Imager, and different passbands of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we examine whether PJs have signatures in the TR and corona. We find hardly any discernible signature of normal PJs in any AIA passbands, except for a few of them showing up in the 1600 Å images. However, we discovered exceptionally stronger jets with similar lifetimes but bigger sizes (up to 600 km wide) occurring repeatedly in a few locations in the penumbra, where evidence of patches of opposite-polarity fields in the tails of some penumbral filaments is seen in Stokes-V images. These tail PJs do display signatures in the TR. Whether they have any coronal-temperature plasma is unclear. We infer that none of the PJs, including the tail PJs, directly heat the corona in active regions significantly, but any penumbral jet might drive some coronal heating indirectly via the generation of Alfvén waves and/or braiding of the coronal field

The Effect of "Rogue" Active Regions on the Solar Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Nagy, Melinda; Lemerle, Alexandre; Labonville, François; Petrovay, Kristóf; Charbonneau, Paul

2017-11-01

The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long-term behavior of solar activity. We investigate this possibility in more detail using a recently developed 2×2D dynamo model of the solar magnetic cycle. We find that even a single "rogue" bipolar magnetic region (BMR) in the simulations can have a major effect on the further development of solar activity cycles, boosting or suppressing the amplitude of subsequent cycles. In extreme cases, an individual BMR can completely halt the dynamo, triggering a grand minimum. Rogue BMRs also have the potential to induce significant hemispheric asymmetries in the solar cycle. To study the effect of rogue BMRs in a more systematic manner, a series of dynamo simulations were conducted, in which a large test BMR was manually introduced in the model at various phases of cycles of different amplitudes. BMRs emerging in the rising phase of a cycle can modify the amplitude of the ongoing cycle, while BMRs emerging in later phases will only affect subsequent cycles. In this model, the strongest effect on the subsequent cycle occurs when the rogue BMR emerges around cycle maximum at low latitudes, but the BMR does not need to be strictly cross-equatorial. Active regions emerging as far as 20° from the equator can still have a significant effect. We demonstrate that the combined effect of the magnetic flux, tilt angle, and polarity separation of the BMR on the dynamo is via their contribution to the dipole moment, δ D_{BMR}. Our results indicate that prediction of the amplitude, starting epoch, and duration of a cycle requires an accurate accounting of a broad range of active regions emerging in the previous cycle.

Comparison of Different Technologies for Integrated Solar Combined Cycles: Analysis of Concentrating Technology and Solar Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Rovira

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This paper compares the annual performance of Integrated Solar Combined Cycles (ISCCs using different solar concentration technologies: parabolic trough collectors (PTC, linear Fresnel reflectors (LFR and central tower receiver (CT. Each solar technology (i.e. PTC, LFR and CT is proposed to integrate solar energy into the combined cycle in two different ways. The first one is based on the use of solar energy to evaporate water of the steam cycle by means of direct steam generation (DSG, increasing the steam production of the high pressure level of the steam generator. The other one is based on the use of solar energy to preheat the pressurized air at the exit of the gas turbine compressor before it is introduced in the combustion chamber, reducing the fuel consumption. Results show that ISCC with DSG increases the yearly production while solar air heating reduces it due to the incremental pressure drop. However, air heating allows significantly higher solar-to-electricity efficiencies and lower heat rates. Regarding the solar technologies, PTC provides the best thermal results.

Solar High Temperature Water-Splitting Cycle with Quantum Boost

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Taylor, Robin [SAIC; Davenport, Roger [SAIC; Talbot, Jan [UCSD; Herz, Richard [UCSD; Genders, David [Electrosynthesis Co.; Symons, Peter [Electrosynthesis Co.; Brown, Lloyd [TChemE

2014-04-25

A sulfur family chemical cycle having ammonia as the working fluid and reagent was developed as a cost-effective and efficient hydrogen production technology based on a solar thermochemical water-splitting cycle. The sulfur ammonia (SA) cycle is a renewable and sustainable process that is unique in that it is an all-fluid cycle (i.e., with no solids handling). It uses a moderate temperature solar plant with the solar receiver operating at 800°C. All electricity needed is generated internally from recovered heat. The plant would operate continuously with low cost storage and it is a good potential solar thermochemical hydrogen production cycle for reaching the DOE cost goals. Two approaches were considered for the hydrogen production step of the SA cycle: (1) photocatalytic, and (2) electrolytic oxidation of ammonium sulfite to ammonium sulfate in aqueous solutions. Also, two sub-cycles were evaluated for the oxygen evolution side of the SA cycle: (1) zinc sulfate/zinc oxide, and (2) potassium sulfate/potassium pyrosulfate. The laboratory testing and optimization of all the process steps for each version of the SA cycle were proven in the laboratory or have been fully demonstrated by others, but further optimization is still possible and needed. The solar configuration evolved to a 50 MW(thermal) central receiver system with a North heliostat field, a cavity receiver, and NaCl molten salt storage to allow continuous operation. The H2A economic model was used to optimize and trade-off SA cycle configurations. Parametric studies of chemical plant performance have indicated process efficiencies of ~20%. Although the current process efficiency is technically acceptable, an increased efficiency is needed if the DOE cost targets are to be reached. There are two interrelated areas in which there is the potential for significant efficiency improvements: electrolysis cell voltage and excessive water vaporization. Methods to significantly reduce water evaporation are

Solar cycle variations of magnetopause locations

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Němeček, Z.; Šafránková, J.; Lopez, R. E.; Dušík, Š.; Nouzák, L.; Přech, J.; Šimůnek, Jiří; Shue, J.-H.

2016-01-01

Roč. 58, č. 2 (2016), s. 240-248 ISSN 0273-1177 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-19376S Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : magnetopause location * F-10.7 flux * solar cycle * solar wind velocity Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics Impact factor: 1.401, year: 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117715007115

On the shape and properties of the global heliosphere over the Solar Cycle with Voyager/LECP ions and Cassini/INCA ENAs

Science.gov (United States)

Dialynas, Konstantinos; Krimigis, Stamatios; Mitchell, Donald; Decker, Robert; Roelof, Edmond

2017-04-01

Voyager 1 (V1) and Voyager 2 (V2) have crossed the termination shock in 2004 (V1) and 2007(V2) and traversing the Heliosheath (HS) in the upstream (nose) hemisphere, while the Ion and Neutral Camera (INCA) on Cassini enables Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) images of the celestial sphere that place the local ion measurements by each Voyager in a global context. We present an analysis of 5.2-55 keV ENA global images of the HS and 28-53 keV in-situ ions over an 11-year period (2003-2014) that corresponds to the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (SC23) and onset of SC24. The measurements reveal a coherent decrease and recovery between ENA in the global heliosphere and in-situ ions at V1/V2 during this time period, in overlapping energy bands, establishing that the HS ions are the source of >28 keV ENA. The similarity in the overall appearance of the images throughout the INCA energy range (5.2-55 keV), reveals that the source of ENAs at 5.2 keV ENA and ion variations with the Solar Sunspot Numbers (SSN) and solar wind parameters indicates that the Heliosphere responds promptly, within 2-3 years, to outward propagating solar wind changes in both the nose and anti-nose (tail) directions following the Solar Cycle (SC) phases. A detailed latitudinal examination of the global ENA emissions, verifies that the peak intensities between the nose and anti-nose directions are nearly similar, the power law ENA spectral index (γ) is largely the same near the equator in both the nose and anti-nose directions and displays similar spatial dependence with latitude. The totality of the ENA and in situ ion observations, together with the V1 measurement of a 0.5 nT interstellar magnetic field (ISMF) and recent modeling, suggest a "bubble-shape" heliosphere, i.e with little substantial tail-like feature. These observations are essential in determining the context for the measurements anticipated by the forthcoming IMAP mission.

Energy and exergy analysis of a closed Brayton cycle-based combined cycle for solar power tower plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zare, V.; Hasanzadeh, M.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A novel combined cycle is proposed for solar power tower plants. • The effects of solar subsystem and power cycle parameters are examined. • The proposed combined cycle yields exergy efficiencies of higher than 70%. • For the overall power plant exergy efficiencies of higher than 30% is achievable. - Abstract: Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technology offers an interesting potential for future power generation and research on CSP systems of all types, particularly those with central receiver system (CRS) has been attracting a lot of attention recently. Today, these power plants cannot compete with the conventional power generation systems in terms of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and if a competitive LCOE is to be reached, employing an efficient thermodynamic power cycle is deemed essential. In the present work, a novel combined cycle is proposed for power generation from solar power towers. The proposed system consists of a closed Brayton cycle, which uses helium as the working fluid, and two organic Rankine cycles which are employed to recover the waste heat of the Brayton cycle. The system is thermodynamically assessed from both the first and second law viewpoints. A parametric study is conducted to examine the effects of key operating parameters (including solar subsystem and power cycle parameters) on the overall power plant performance. The results indicate that exergy efficiencies of higher than 30% are achieved for the overall power plant. Also, according to the results, the power cycle proposed in this work has a better performance than the other investigated Rankine and supercritical CO_2 systems operating under similar conditions, for these types of solar power plants.

Effects of Solar Activity and Space Environment in 2003 Oct.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyung-Seok Cho

2004-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a good example of extreme solar and geomagnetic activities from October to November, 2003. These activities are characterized by very large sunspot groups, X-class solar flares, strong particle events, and huge geomagnetic storms. We discuss ground-based and space-based data in terms of space weather scales. Especially, we present several solar and geomagnetic disturbance data produced in Korea : sunspots, geo-magnetograms, aurora, Ionogram, and Total Electron Content (TEC map by GPS data. Finally, we introduce some examples of the satellite orbit and communication effects caused by these activities; e.g., the disturbances of the KOMPSAT-1 operational orbit and HF communication.

Hybrid solar central receiver for combined cycle power plant

Science.gov (United States)

Bharathan, Desikan; Bohn, Mark S.; Williams, Thomas A.

1995-01-01

A hybrid combined cycle power plant including a solar central receiver for receiving solar radiation and converting it to thermal energy. The power plant includes a molten salt heat transfer medium for transferring the thermal energy to an air heater. The air heater uses the thermal energy to preheat the air from the compressor of the gas cycle. The exhaust gases from the gas cycle are directed to a steam turbine for additional energy production.

Variability of fractal dimension of solar radio flux

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatt, Hitaishi; Sharma, Som Kumar; Trivedi, Rupal; Vats, Hari Om

2018-04-01

In the present communication, the variation of the fractal dimension of solar radio flux is reported. Solar radio flux observations on a day to day basis at 410, 1415, 2695, 4995, and 8800 MHz are used in this study. The data were recorded at Learmonth Solar Observatory, Australia from 1988 to 2009 covering an epoch of two solar activity cycles (22 yr). The fractal dimension is calculated for the listed frequencies for this period. The fractal dimension, being a measure of randomness, represents variability of solar radio flux at shorter time-scales. The contour plot of fractal dimension on a grid of years versus radio frequency suggests high correlation with solar activity. Fractal dimension increases with increasing frequency suggests randomness increases towards the inner corona. This study also shows that the low frequency is more affected by solar activity (at low frequency fractal dimension difference between solar maximum and solar minimum is 0.42) whereas, the higher frequency is less affected by solar activity (here fractal dimension difference between solar maximum and solar minimum is 0.07). A good positive correlation is found between fractal dimension averaged over all frequencies and yearly averaged sunspot number (Pearson's coefficient is 0.87).

Solar wind drivers of geomagnetic storms during more than four solar cycles

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Richardson Ian G.

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Using a classification of the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types: (1 High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun; (2 Slow, interstream solar wind; and (3 Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections (CMEs at the Sun, including interplanetary CMEs and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions, we determine the drivers of geomagnetic storms of various size ranges based on the Kp index and the NOAA “G” criteria since 1964, close to the beginning of the space era, to 2011, encompassing more than four solar cycles (20–23. We also briefly discuss the occurrence of storms since the beginning of the Kp index in 1932, in the minimum before cycle 17. We note that the extended low level of storm activity during the minimum following cycle 23 is without precedent in this 80-year interval. Furthermore, the “typical” numbers of storm days/cycle quoted in the standard NOAA G storm table appear to be significantly higher than those obtained from our analysis, except for the strongest (G5 storms, suggesting that they should be revised downward.

Solar flares, CMEs and solar energetic particle events during solar cycle 24

Science.gov (United States)

Pande, Bimal; Pande, Seema; Chandra, Ramesh; Chandra Mathpal, Mahesh

2018-01-01

We present here a study of Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPs) associated with solar flares during 2010-2014 in solar cycle 24. We have selected the flare events (≥GOES M-class), which produced SEPs. The SEPs are classified into three categories i.e. weak (proton intensity ≤ 1 pfu), minor (1 pfu pfu) and major (proton intensity ≥ 10 pfu). We used the GOES data for the SEP events which have intensity greater than one pfu and SOHO/ERNE data for the SEP event less than one pfu intensity. In addition to the flare and SEP properties, we have also discussed different properties of associated CMEs.

Sunspot Light Walls Suppressed by Nearby Brightenings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Shuhong; Zhang, Jun; Hou, Yijun; Li, Xiaohong [CAS Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012 (China); Erdélyi, Robertus [Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Yan, Limei, E-mail: shuhongyang@nao.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 (China)

2017-07-01

Light walls, as ensembles of oscillating bright structures rooted in sunspot light bridges, have not been well studied, although they are important for understanding sunspot properties. Using the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph and Solar Dynamics Observatory observations, here we study the evolution of two oscillating light walls each within its own active region (AR). The emission of each light wall decays greatly after the appearance of adjacent brightenings. For the first light wall, rooted within AR 12565, the average height, amplitude, and oscillation period significantly decrease from 3.5 Mm, 1.7 Mm, and 8.5 minutes to 1.6 Mm, 0.4 Mm, and 3.0 minutes, respectively. For the second light wall, rooted within AR 12597, the mean height, amplitude, and oscillation period of the light wall decrease from 2.1 Mm, 0.5 Mm, and 3.0 minutes to 1.5 Mm, 0.2 Mm, and 2.1 minutes, respectively. Particularly, a part of the second light wall even becomes invisible after the influence of a nearby brightening. These results reveal that the light walls are suppressed by nearby brightenings. Considering the complex magnetic topology in light bridges, we conjecture that the fading of light walls may be caused by a drop in the magnetic pressure, where the flux is canceled by magnetic reconnection at the site of the nearby brightening. Another hypothesis is that the wall fading is due to the suppression of driver source ( p -mode oscillation), resulting from the nearby avalanche of downward particles along reconnected brightening loops.

Solar cycle variations in the ionosphere of Mars

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez-Cano, B.; Lester, M.; Witasse, Ol; Blelly, P.L.; Cartacci, M.; Radicella, S.M.; Herraiz, M.

2016-07-01

Solar cycle variations in solar radiation create notable changes in the Martian ionosphere, which have been analysed with Mars Express plasma datasets in this paper. In general, lower densities and temperatures of the ionosphere are found during the low solar activity phase, while higher densities and temperatures are found during the high solar activity phase. In this paper, we assess the degree of influence of the long term solar flux variations in the ionosphere of Mars. (Author)

Characteristics of Solar Wind Density Depletions During Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keunchan Park

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Solar wind density depletions are phenomena that solar wind density is rapidly decreased and keep the state. They are generally believed to be caused by the interplanetary (IP shocks. However, there are other cases that are hardly associated with IP shocks. We set up a hypothesis for this phenomenon and analyze this study. We have collected the solar wind parameters such as density, speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF data related to the solar wind density depletion events during the period from 1996 to 2013 that are obtained with the advanced composition explorer (ACE and the Wind satellite. We also calculate two pressures (magnetic, dynamic and analyze the relation with density depletion. As a result, we found total 53 events and the most these phenomena’s sources caused by IP shock are interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME. We also found that solar wind density depletions are scarcely related with IP shock’s parameters. The solar wind density is correlated with solar wind dynamic pressure within density depletion. However, the solar wind density has an little anti-correlation with IMF strength during all events of solar wind density depletion, regardless of the presence of IP shocks. Additionally, In 47 events of IP shocks, we find 6 events that show a feature of blast wave. The quantities of IP shocks are weaker than blast wave from the Sun, they are declined in a short time after increasing rapidly. We thus argue that IMF strength or dynamic pressure are an important factor in understanding the nature of solar wind density depletion. Since IMF strength and solar wind speed varies with solar cycle, we will also investigate the characteristics of solar wind density depletion events in different phases of solar cycle as an additional clue to their physical nature.

The Flares Associated with the Dynamics of the Sunspots K. M. ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

tional theory of magnetic reconnection is briefly discussed. ... between changes in the sunspots' dynamics, emerging flux region, twisting of the field ... the eventual triggering of the flares is due to proper motion of the sunspots. Using .... rotation rates obtained from the daily motion of sunspot groups with respect to their life.

Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Jiangwen

2016-09-01

The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Solar and interplanetary particles at 2 to 4 MEV during solar cycles 21, solar cycle variations of event sizes, and compositions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Armstrong, T.P.; Shields, J.C.; Briggs, P.R.; Eckes, S.

1985-01-01

In this paper 2 to 4 MeV/nucleon protons, alpha particles, and medium (CNO) nuclei in the near-Earth interplanetary medium during the years 1974 to 1981 are studied. This period contains both the solar activity minimum in 1976 and the very active onset phase of Solar Cycle 21. Characteristic compositional differences between the solar minimum and solar maximum ion populations have been investigated. Previous studies of interplanetary composition at these energies have concentrated on well-defined samples of the heliospheric medium. During flare particle events, the ambient plasma is dominated by ions accelerated in specific regions of the solar atmosphere; observation of the proton/alpha and alpha/medium ratios for flare events shows that there is marked compositional variability both during an event and from event to event suggesting the complicated nature of flare particle production and transport

Sunspot splitting triggering an eruptive flare

Science.gov (United States)

Louis, Rohan E.; Puschmann, Klaus G.; Kliem, Bernhard; Balthasar, Horst; Denker, Carsten

2014-02-01

Aims: We investigate how the splitting of the leading sunspot and associated flux emergence and cancellation in active region NOAA 11515 caused an eruptive M5.6 flare on 2012 July 2. Methods: Continuum intensity, line-of-sight magnetogram, and dopplergram data of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager were employed to analyse the photospheric evolution. Filtergrams in Hα and He I 10830 Å of the Chromospheric Telescope at the Observatorio del Teide, Tenerife, track the evolution of the flare. The corresponding coronal conditions were derived from 171 Å and 304 Å images of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. Local correlation tracking was utilized to determine shear flows. Results: Emerging flux formed a neutral line ahead of the leading sunspot and new satellite spots. The sunspot splitting caused a long-lasting flow towards this neutral line, where a filament formed. Further flux emergence, partly of mixed polarity, as well as episodes of flux cancellation occurred repeatedly at the neutral line. Following a nearby C-class precursor flare with signs of interaction with the filament, the filament erupted nearly simultaneously with the onset of the M5.6 flare and evolved into a coronal mass ejection. The sunspot stretched without forming a light bridge, splitting unusually fast (within about a day, complete ≈6 h after the eruption) in two nearly equal parts. The front part separated strongly from the active region to approach the neighbouring active region where all its coronal magnetic connections were rooted. It also rotated rapidly (by 4.9° h-1) and caused significant shear flows at its edge. Conclusions: The eruption resulted from a complex sequence of processes in the (sub-)photosphere and corona. The persistent flows towards the neutral line likely caused the formation of a flux rope that held the filament. These flows, their associated flux cancellation, the emerging flux, and the precursor flare all contributed to the destabilization of the flux rope. We

Variations and Regularities in the Hemispheric Distributions in Sunspot Groups of Various Classes

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Peng-Xin

2018-05-01

The present study investigates the variations and regularities in the distributions in sunspot groups (SGs) of various classes in the northern and southern hemispheres from Solar Cycles (SCs) 12 to 23. Here, we use the separation scheme that was introduced by Gao, Li, and Li ( Solar Phys. 292, 124, 2017), which is based on A/U ( A is the corrected area of the SG, and U is the corrected umbral area of the SG), in order to separate SGs into simple SGs (A/U ≤ 4.5) and complex SGs (A/U > 6.2). The time series of Greenwich photoheliographic results from 1875 to 1976 (corresponding to complete SCs 12 - 20) and Debrecen photoheliographic data during the period 1974 - 2015 (corresponding to complete SCs 21 - 23) are used to show the distributions of simple and complex SGs in the northern and southern hemispheres. The main results we obtain are reported as follows: i) the larger of the maximum annual simple SG numbers in the two hemispheres and the larger of the maximum annual complex SG numbers in the two hemispheres occur in different hemispheres during SCs 12, 14, 18, and 19; ii) the relative changing trends of two curves - cumulative SG numbers in the northern and southern hemispheres - for simple SGs are different from those for complex SGs during SCs 12, 14, 18, and 21; and iii) there are discrepancies between the dominant hemispheres of simple and complex SGs for SCs 12, 14, 18, and 21.

A STUDY OF SOLAR PHOTOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENT VARIATION USING LIMB DARKENING MEASUREMENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Criscuoli, Serena [National Solar Observatory, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Foukal, Peter [192 Willow Road, Nahant, MA 01908 (United States)

2017-01-20

The variation in area of quiet magnetic network measured over the sunspot cycle should modulate the spatially averaged photospheric temperature gradient, since temperature declines with optical depth more gradually in magnetic flux tube atmospheres. Yet, limb darkening measurements show no dependence upon activity level, even at an rms precision of 0.04%. We study the sensitivity of limb darkening to changes in area filling factor using a 3D MHD model of the magnetized photosphere. The limb darkening change expected from the measured 11-year area variation lies below the level of measured limb darkening variations, for a reasonable range of magnetic flux in quiet network and internetwork regions. So the remarkably constant limb darkening observed over the solar activity cycle is not inconsistent with the measured 11-year change in area of quiet magnetic network. Our findings offer an independent constraint on photospheric temperature gradient changes reported from measurements of the solar spectral irradiance from the Spectral Irradiance Monitor, and recently, from wavelength-differential spectrophotometry using the Solar Optical Telescope aboard the HINODE spacecraft.

SEISMIC DISCRIMINATION OF THERMAL AND MAGNETIC ANOMALIES IN SUNSPOT UMBRAE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindsey, C.; Cally, P. S.; Rempel, M.

2010-01-01

Efforts to model sunspots based on helioseismic signatures need to discriminate between the effects of (1) a strong magnetic field that introduces time-irreversible, vantage-dependent phase shifts, apparently connected to fast- and slow-mode coupling and wave absorption and (2) a thermal anomaly that includes cool gas extending an indefinite depth beneath the photosphere. Helioseismic observations of sunspots show travel times considerably reduced with respect to equivalent quiet-Sun signatures. Simulations by Moradi and Cally of waves skipping across sunspots with photospheric magnetic fields of order 3 kG show travel times that respond strongly to the magnetic field and relatively weakly to the thermal anomaly by itself. We note that waves propagating vertically in a vertical magnetic field are relatively insensitive to the magnetic field, while remaining highly responsive to the attendant thermal anomaly. Travel-time measurements for waves with large skip distances into the centers of axially symmetric sunspots are therefore a crucial resource for discrimination of the thermal anomaly beneath sunspot umbrae from the magnetic anomaly. One-dimensional models of sunspot umbrae based on compressible-radiative-magnetic-convective simulations such as by Rempel et al. can be fashioned to fit observed helioseismic travel-time spectra in the centers of sunspot umbrae. These models are based on cooling of the upper 2-4 Mm of the umbral subphotosphere with no significant anomaly beneath 4.5 Mm. The travel-time reductions characteristic of these models are primarily a consequence of a Wilson depression resulting from a strong downward buoyancy of the cooled umbral medium.

Galactic and solar radiation exposure to aircrew during a solar cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, B.J.; Bennett, L.G.I.; Green, A.R.; McCall, M.J.; Ellaschuk, B.; Butler, A.; Pierre, M.

2002-01-01

An on-going investigation using a tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) has been carried out to measure the ambient dose equivalent rate of the cosmic radiation exposure of aircrew during a solar cycle. A semi-empirical model has been derived from these data to allow for the interpolation of the dose rate for any global position. The model has been extended to an altitude of up to 32 km with further measurements made on board aircraft and several balloon flights. The effects of changing solar modulation during the solar cycle are characterised by correlating the dose rate data to different solar potential models. Through integration of the dose-rate function over a great circle flight path or between given waypoints, a Predictive Code for Aircrew Radiation Exposure has been further developed for estimation of the route dose from galactic cosmic radiation exposure. This estimate is provided in units of ambient dose equivalent as well as effective dose, based on E/H*(10) scaling functions as determined from transport code calculations with LUIN and FLUKA. This experimentally based treatment has also been compared with the CARI-6 and EPCARD codes that are derived solely from theoretical transport calculations. Using TEPC measurements taken aboard the International Space Station, ground based neutron monitoring, GOES satellite data and transport code analysis, an empirical model has been further proposed for estimation of aircrew exposure during solar particle events. This model has been compared to results obtained during recent solar flare events. (author)

The north-south asymmetry of solar filaments separately at low and high latitudes in solar cycle 23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kong De-Fang; Qu Zhi-Ning; Guo Qiao-Ling

2015-01-01

We present the results of a study on the north-south asymmetry of solar filaments at low (<50°) and high (>60°) latitudes using daily filament numbers from January 1998 to November 2008 (solar cycle 23). It is found that the northern hemisphere is dominant at low latitudes for cycle 23. However, a similar asymmetry does not occur for solar filaments at high latitudes. The present study indicates that the hemispheric asymmetry of solar filaments at high latitudes in a cycle appears to have little connection with that at low latitudes. Our results support that the observed magnetic fields at high latitudes include two components: one comes from the emergence of the magnetic fields from the solar interior and the other comes from the drift of the magnetic activity at low latitudes. (research papers)

Phase shifts of the paired wings of butterfly diagrams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Kejun; Liang Hongfei; Feng Wen

2010-01-01

Sunspot groups observed by the Royal Greenwich Observatory/US Air Force/NOAA from 1874 May to 2008 November and the Carte Synoptique solar filaments from 1919 March to 1989 December are used to investigate the relative phase shift of the paired wings of butterfly diagrams of sunspot and filament activities. Latitudinal migration of sunspot groups (or filaments) does asynchronously occur in the northern and southern hemispheres, and there is a relative phase shift between the paired wings of their butterfly diagrams in a cycle, making the paired wings spatially asymmetrical on the solar equator. It is inferred that hemispherical solar activity strength should evolve in a similar way within the paired wings of a butterfly diagram in a cycle, demonstrating the paired wings phenomenon and showing the phase relationship between the northern and southern hemispherical solar activity strengths, as well as a relative phase shift between the paired wings of a butterfly diagram, which should bring about almost the same relative phase shift of hemispheric solar activity strength. (research papers)

MAGNETIC PROPERTIES OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS THAT GOVERN LARGE SOLAR FLARES AND ERUPTIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Toriumi, Shin [National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 2-21-1 Osawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Schrijver, Carolus J. [Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, 3251 Hanover Street, Palo Alto, CA 94304 (United States); Harra, Louise K. [UCL-Mullard Space Science Laboratory, Holmbury St Mary, Dorking, Surrey, RH5 6NT (United Kingdom); Hudson, Hugh [SUPA School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow (United Kingdom); Nagashima, Kaori, E-mail: shin.toriumi@nao.ac.jp [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, D-37077 Göttingen (Germany)

2017-01-01

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), especially the larger ones, emanate from active regions (ARs). With the aim of understanding the magnetic properties that govern such flares and eruptions, we systematically survey all flare events with Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite levels of ≥M5.0 within 45° from disk center between 2010 May and 2016 April. These criteria lead to a total of 51 flares from 29 ARs, for which we analyze the observational data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory . More than 80% of the 29 ARs are found to exhibit δ -sunspots, and at least three ARs violate Hale’s polarity rule. The flare durations are approximately proportional to the distance between the two flare ribbons, to the total magnetic flux inside the ribbons, and to the ribbon area. From our study, one of the parameters that clearly determine whether a given flare event is CME-eruptive or not is the ribbon area normalized by the sunspot area, which may indicate that the structural relationship between the flaring region and the entire AR controls CME productivity. AR characterization shows that even X-class events do not require δ -sunspots or strong-field, high-gradient polarity inversion lines. An investigation of historical observational data suggests the possibility that the largest solar ARs, with magnetic flux of 2 × 10{sup 23} Mx, might be able to produce “superflares” with energies of the order of 10{sup 34} erg. The proportionality between the flare durations and magnetic energies is consistent with stellar flare observations, suggesting a common physical background for solar and stellar flares.

Observations of recurrent cosmic ray decreases during solar cycles 22 and 23

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dunzlaff, P.; Heber, B.; Kopp, A.; Rother, O.; Mueller-Mellin, R.; Klassen, A.; Gomez-Herrero, R.; Wimmer-Schweingruber, R.

2008-01-01

During solar cycle 22, the modulation of several hundred MeV galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) by recurrent and transient cosmic ray decreases was observed by the Ulysses spacecraft on its descent towards the solar south pole. In solar cycle 23, Ulysses repeated this trajectory segment during a similar phase of the solar cycle, but with opposite heliospheric magnetic field polarity. Since cosmic ray propagation in the heliosphere should depend on drift effects, we determine in this study the latitudinal distribution of the amplitude of recurrent cosmic ray decreases in solar cycles 22 and 23. As long as we measure the recurrent plasma structures in situ, we find that these decreases behave nearly the same in both cycles. Measurements in the fast solar wind, however, show differences: in cycle 22 (A>0) the recurrent cosmic ray decreases show a clear maximum near 25 and are still present beyond 40 , whereas we see in cycle 23 (A<0) neither such a pronounced maximum nor significant decreases above 40 . In other words: the periodicity in the cosmic ray intensity, which can be clearly seen in the slow solar wind, appears to vanish there. Theoretical models for drift effects, however, predict quite the opposite behaviour for the two solar cycles. To closer investigate this apparent contradiction, we first put the visual inspection of the data onto a more solid basis by performing a detailed Lomb (spectral) analysis. The next step consists of an analysis of the resulting periodicities at 1 AU in order to distinguish between spatial and temporal variations, so that we can obtain statements about the question in how far there is a correlation between the in-situ data at 1 AU and those measured by Ulysses at larger latitudes. We find a good correlation being present during cycle 22, but not for cycle 23. As one potential explanation for this behaviour, we suggest the difference in the coronal hole structures between the cycles 22 and 23 due to a large, stable coronal hole