Automatic creation of specialised multilingual dictionaries in new subject areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joaquim Moré

2009-05-01

Full Text Available This article presents a tool to automatically generate specialised dictionaries of multilingual equivalents in new subject areas. The tool uses resources that are available on the web to search for equivalents and verify their reliability. These resources are, on the one hand, the Wikipedias, which can be freely downloaded and processed, and, on the other, the materials that terminological institutions of reference make available. This tool is of use to teachers producing teaching materials and researchers preparing theses, articles or reference manuals. It is also of use to translators and terminologists working on terminological standardisation in a new subject area in a given language, as it helps them in their work to pinpoint concepts that have yet to receive a standardised denomination.

Review of some advances of the literature about predictive variables concerning subjective well-being

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gloria Cajiao

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This review of scientific literature presents some tendencies, conceptual advances, empirical findings and tests that measure the predictive variables of subjective well-being. It was done through the search in bibliographical database like ProQuest, PsycArticles, Psyctest, OVID SP, books and Thesis. Two types of predictive variables were recognized- internal and external to the individual-. Both of them influence the achievement of the subjective well-being. Besides, the studies and conceptualization about Subjetive well-being and some of the Predictive Variables were analyzed in the conclusion.

Subject-specific knee joint geometry improves predictions of medial tibiofemoral contact forces

Science.gov (United States)

Gerus, Pauline; Sartori, Massimo; Besier, Thor F.; Fregly, Benjamin J.; Delp, Scott L.; Banks, Scott A.; Pandy, Marcus G.; D’Lima, Darryl D.; Lloyd, David G.

2013-01-01

Estimating tibiofemoral joint contact forces is important for understanding the initiation and progression of knee osteoarthritis. However, tibiofemoral contact force predictions are influenced by many factors including muscle forces and anatomical representations of the knee joint. This study aimed to investigate the influence of subject-specific geometry and knee joint kinematics on the prediction of tibiofemoral contact forces using a calibrated EMG-driven neuromusculoskeletal model of the knee. One participant fitted with an instrumented total knee replacement walked at a self-selected speed while medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces, ground reaction forces, whole-body kinematics, and lower-limb muscle activity were simultaneously measured. The combination of generic and subject-specific knee joint geometry and kinematics resulted in four different OpenSim models used to estimate muscle-tendon lengths and moment arms. The subject-specific geometric model was created from CT scans and the subject-specific knee joint kinematics representing the translation of the tibia relative to the femur was obtained from fluoroscopy. The EMG-driven model was calibrated using one walking trial, but with three different cost functions that tracked the knee flexion/extension moments with and without constraint over the estimated joint contact forces. The calibrated models then predicted the medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces for five other different walking trials. The use of subject-specific models with minimization of the peak tibiofemoral contact forces improved the accuracy of medial contact forces by 47% and lateral contact forces by 7%, respectively compared with the use of generic musculoskeletal model. PMID:24074941

A Subject-Specific Kinematic Model to Predict Human Motion in Exoskeleton-Assisted Gait

Science.gov (United States)

Torricelli, Diego; Cortés, Camilo; Lete, Nerea; Bertelsen, Álvaro; Gonzalez-Vargas, Jose E.; del-Ama, Antonio J.; Dimbwadyo, Iris; Moreno, Juan C.; Florez, Julian; Pons, Jose L.

2018-01-01

The relative motion between human and exoskeleton is a crucial factor that has remarkable consequences on the efficiency, reliability and safety of human-robot interaction. Unfortunately, its quantitative assessment has been largely overlooked in the literature. Here, we present a methodology that allows predicting the motion of the human joints from the knowledge of the angular motion of the exoskeleton frame. Our method combines a subject-specific skeletal model with a kinematic model of a lower limb exoskeleton (H2, Technaid), imposing specific kinematic constraints between them. To calibrate the model and validate its ability to predict the relative motion in a subject-specific way, we performed experiments on seven healthy subjects during treadmill walking tasks. We demonstrate a prediction accuracy lower than 3.5° globally, and around 1.5° at the hip level, which represent an improvement up to 66% compared to the traditional approach assuming no relative motion between the user and the exoskeleton. PMID:29755336

A Subject-Specific Kinematic Model to Predict Human Motion in Exoskeleton-Assisted Gait.

Science.gov (United States)

Torricelli, Diego; Cortés, Camilo; Lete, Nerea; Bertelsen, Álvaro; Gonzalez-Vargas, Jose E; Del-Ama, Antonio J; Dimbwadyo, Iris; Moreno, Juan C; Florez, Julian; Pons, Jose L

2018-01-01

The relative motion between human and exoskeleton is a crucial factor that has remarkable consequences on the efficiency, reliability and safety of human-robot interaction. Unfortunately, its quantitative assessment has been largely overlooked in the literature. Here, we present a methodology that allows predicting the motion of the human joints from the knowledge of the angular motion of the exoskeleton frame. Our method combines a subject-specific skeletal model with a kinematic model of a lower limb exoskeleton (H2, Technaid), imposing specific kinematic constraints between them. To calibrate the model and validate its ability to predict the relative motion in a subject-specific way, we performed experiments on seven healthy subjects during treadmill walking tasks. We demonstrate a prediction accuracy lower than 3.5° globally, and around 1.5° at the hip level, which represent an improvement up to 66% compared to the traditional approach assuming no relative motion between the user and the exoskeleton.

Prediction of elastic-plastic response of structural elements subjected to cyclic loading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El Haddad, M.H.; Samaan, S.

1985-01-01

A simplified elastic-plastic analysis is developed to predict stress strain and force deformation response of structural metallic elements subjected to irregular cyclic loadings. In this analysis a simple elastic-plastic method for predicting the skeleton force deformation curve is developed. In this method, elastic and fully plastic solutions are first obtained for unknown quantities, such as deflection or local strains. Elastic and fully plastic contributions are then combined to obtain an elastic-plastic solution. The skeleton curve is doubled to establish the shape of the hysteresis loop. The complete force deformation response can therefore be simulated through reversal by reversal in accordance with hysteresis looping and material memory. Several examples of structural elements with various cross sections made from various materials and subjected to irregular cyclic loadings, are analysed. A close agreement is obtained between experimental results found in the literature and present predictions. (orig.)

Prediction method for thermal ratcheting of a cylinder subjected to axially moving temperature distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wada, Hiroshi; Igari, Toshihide; Kitade, Shoji.

1989-01-01

A prediction method was proposed for plastic ratcheting of a cylinder, which was subjected to axially moving temperature distribution without primary stress. First, a mechanism of this ratcheting was proposed, which considered the movement of temperature distribution as a driving force of this phenomenon. Predictive equations of the ratcheting strain for two representative temperature distributions were proposed based on this mechanism by assuming the elastic-perfectly-plastic material behavior. Secondly, an elastic-plastic analysis was made on a cylinder subjected to the representative two temperature distributions. Analytical results coincided well with the predicted results, and the applicability of the proposed equations was confirmed. (author)

Effects prediction guidelines for structures subjected to ground motion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-07-01

Part of the planning for an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) is determining the effects of expected ground motion on exposed structures. Because of the many types of structures and the wide variation in ground motion intensity typically encountered, no single prediction method is both adequate and feasible for a complete evaluation. Furthermore, the nature and variability of ground motion and structure damage prescribe effects predictions that are made probabilistically. Initially, prediction for a UNE involves a preliminary assessment of damage to establish overall project feasibility. Subsequent efforts require more detailed damage evaluations, based on structure inventories and analyses of specific structures, so that safety problems can be identified and safety and remedial measures can be recommended. To cover this broad range of effects prediction needs for a typical UNE project, three distinct but interrelated methods have been developed and are described. First, the fundamental practical and theoretical aspects of predicting the effects of dynamic ground motion on structures are summarized. Next, experimentally derived and theoretically determined observations of the behavior of typical structures subjected to ground motion are presented. Then, based on these fundamental considerations and on the observed behavior of structures, the formulation of the three effects prediction procedures is described, along with guidelines regarding their applicability. Example damage predictions for hypothetical UNEs demonstrate these procedures. To aid in identifying the vibration properties of complex structures, one chapter discusses alternatives in vibration testing, instrumentation, and data analysis. Finally, operational guidelines regarding data acquisition procedures, safety criteria, and remedial measures involved in conducting structure effects evaluations are discussed. (U.S.)

Fourier power, subjective distance, and object categories all provide plausible models of BOLD responses in scene-selective visual areas

Science.gov (United States)

Lescroart, Mark D.; Stansbury, Dustin E.; Gallant, Jack L.

2015-01-01

Perception of natural visual scenes activates several functional areas in the human brain, including the Parahippocampal Place Area (PPA), Retrosplenial Complex (RSC), and the Occipital Place Area (OPA). It is currently unclear what specific scene-related features are represented in these areas. Previous studies have suggested that PPA, RSC, and/or OPA might represent at least three qualitatively different classes of features: (1) 2D features related to Fourier power; (2) 3D spatial features such as the distance to objects in a scene; or (3) abstract features such as the categories of objects in a scene. To determine which of these hypotheses best describes the visual representation in scene-selective areas, we applied voxel-wise modeling (VM) to BOLD fMRI responses elicited by a set of 1386 images of natural scenes. VM provides an efficient method for testing competing hypotheses by comparing predictions of brain activity based on encoding models that instantiate each hypothesis. Here we evaluated three different encoding models that instantiate each of the three hypotheses listed above. We used linear regression to fit each encoding model to the fMRI data recorded from each voxel, and we evaluated each fit model by estimating the amount of variance it predicted in a withheld portion of the data set. We found that voxel-wise models based on Fourier power or the subjective distance to objects in each scene predicted much of the variance predicted by a model based on object categories. Furthermore, the response variance explained by these three models is largely shared, and the individual models explain little unique variance in responses. Based on an evaluation of previous studies and the data we present here, we conclude that there is currently no good basis to favor any one of the three alternative hypotheses about visual representation in scene-selective areas. We offer suggestions for further studies that may help resolve this issue. PMID:26594164

Drilling in areas subject to environmental protection; A perfuracao em area de protecao ambiental

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendonca, Ricardo Teixeira; Guimaraes, Antimio Santos [PETROBRAS, XX (Brazil). Distrito de Perfuracao do Nordeste. Div. Tecnica; Santana, Manoel Messias de [PETROBRAS, XX (Brazil). Regiao de Producao do Nordeste. Setor de Seguranca Industrial

1990-12-31

This paper presents the practices developed for pollution control in areas subject to environmental protection. This well drilling operation was carried out in the Municipality of Marechal Deodoro, in the State of Alagoas, in locality named Massagueira. We stress the preventive methods for liquid and solid effluent generation and the use of Closed Fluid System or Anti-Dike System. (author) 3 figs.

Absence of airway secretion accumulation predicts tolerance of noninvasive ventilation in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenberghe, Nadia; Vallet, Anne-Evelyne; Petitjean, Thierry; Le Cam, Pierre; Peysson, Stéphane; Guérin, Claude; Dailler, Frédéric; Jay, Sylvie; Cadiergue, Vincent; Bouhour, Françoise; Court-Fortune, Isabelle; Camdessanche, Jean-Philippe; Antoine, Jean-Christophe; Philit, François; Beuret, Pascal; Bin-Dorel, Sylvie; Vial, Christophe; Broussolle, Emmanuel

2013-09-01

To assess factors that predict good tolerance of noninvasive ventilation (NIV), in order to improve survival and quality of life in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We conducted a prospective study in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and requiring NIV. The primary end point was NIV tolerance at 1 month. Subjects, several of whom failed to complete the study, were classified as "tolerant" or "poorly tolerant," according to the number of hours of NIV use (more or less than 4 h per night, respectively). Eighty-one subjects, 73 of whom also attended the 1-month follow-up visit, participated over 34 months. NIV tolerance after the first day of utilization predicted tolerance at 1 month (77.6% and 75.3% of subjects, respectively). Multivariate analysis disclosed 3 factors predicting good NIV tolerance: absence of airway secretions accumulation prior to NIV onset (odds ratio 11.5); normal bulbar function at initiation of NIV (odds ratio 8.5); and older age (weakly significant, odds ratio 1.1). Our study reveals 3 factors that are predictive of good NIV tolerance, in particular the absence of airway secretion accumulation, which should prompt NIV initiation before its appearance.

Leaf area prediction models for Tsuga canadensis in Maine

Science.gov (United States)

Laura S. Kenefic; R.S. Seymour

1999-01-01

Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. (eastern hemlock) is a common species throughout the Acadian forest. Studies of leaf area and growth efficiency in this forest type have been limited by the lack of equations to predict leaf area of this species. We found that sapwood area was an effective leaf area surrogate in T. canadensis, though...

Predicting artificailly drained areas by means of selective model ensemble

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Anders Bjørn; Beucher, Amélie; Iversen, Bo Vangsø

. The approaches employed include decision trees, discriminant analysis, regression models, neural networks and support vector machines amongst others. Several models are trained with each method, using variously the original soil covariates and principal components of the covariates. With a large ensemble...... out since the mid-19th century, and it has been estimated that half of the cultivated area is artificially drained (Olesen, 2009). A number of machine learning approaches can be used to predict artificially drained areas in geographic space. However, instead of choosing the most accurate model....... The study aims firstly to train a large number of models to predict the extent of artificially drained areas using various machine learning approaches. Secondly, the study will develop a method for selecting the models, which give a good prediction of artificially drained areas, when used in conjunction...

An investigation on impacts of scheduling configurations on Mississippi biology subject area testing

Science.gov (United States)

Marchette, Frances Lenora

The purpose of this mixed modal study was to compare the results of Biology Subject Area mean scores of students on a 4 x 4 block schedule, A/B block schedule, and traditional year-long schedule for 1A to 5A size schools. This study also reviewed the data to determine if minority or gender issues might influence the test results. Interviews with administrators and teachers were conducted about the type of schedule configuration they use and the influence that the schedule has on student academic performance on the Biology Subject Area Test. Additionally, this research further explored whether schedule configurations allow sufficient time for students to construct knowledge. This study is important to schools, teachers, and administrators because it can assist them in considering the impacts that different types of class schedules have on student performance and if ethnic or gender issues are influencing testing results. This study used the causal-comparative method for the quantitative portion of the study and constant comparative method for the qualitative portion to explore the relationship of school schedules on student academic achievement on the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test. The aggregate means of selected student scores indicate that the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test as a measure of student performance reveals no significant difference on student achievement for the three school schedule configurations. The data were adjusted for initial differences of gender, minority, and school size on the three schedule configurations. The results suggest that schools may employ various schedule configurations and expect student performance on the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test to be unaffected. However, many areas of concern were identified in the interviews that might impact on school learning environments. These concerns relate to effective classroom management, the active involvement of students in learning, the adequacy of teacher education

Estimation of serum ferritin for normal subject living in Khartoum area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eltayeb, E.A; Khangi, F.A.; Satti, G.M.; Abu Salab, A.

2003-01-01

This study was conducted with a main objective; the estimation of serum ferritin level in normal subjects in Khartoum area.To fulfil this objective, two hundred and sixty symptoms-free subjects were included in the study, 103 males with 15 to 45 years. serum ferritin was determined by radioimmunoassay (RIA). It was found that the mean concentration of males' serum ferritin was much higher than that of the females' (p<0.001). (Author)

Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

2018-02-15

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

Distinguishing medication-free subjects with unipolar disorder from subjects with bipolar disorder: state matters.

Science.gov (United States)

Rive, Maria M; Redlich, Ronny; Schmaal, Lianne; Marquand, André F; Dannlowski, Udo; Grotegerd, Dominik; Veltman, Dick J; Schene, Aart H; Ruhé, Henricus G

2016-11-01

Recent studies have indicated that pattern recognition techniques of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data for individual classification may be valuable for distinguishing between major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD). Importantly, medication may have affected previous classification results as subjects with MDD and BD use different classes of medication. Furthermore, almost all studies have investigated only depressed subjects. Therefore, we focused on medication-free subjects. We additionally investigated whether classification would be mood state independent by including depressed and remitted subjects alike. We applied Gaussian process classifiers to investigate the discriminatory power of structural MRI (gray matter volumes of emotion regulation areas) and resting-state fMRI (resting-state networks implicated in mood disorders: default mode network [DMN], salience network [SN], and lateralized frontoparietal networks [FPNs]) in depressed (n=42) and remitted (n=49) medication-free subjects with MDD and BD. Depressed subjects with MDD and BD could be classified based on the gray matter volumes of emotion regulation areas as well as DMN functional connectivity with 69.1% prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy using the FPNs and SN did not exceed chance level. It was not possible to discriminate between remitted subjects with MDD and BD. For the first time, we showed that medication-free subjects with MDD and BD can be differentiated based on structural MRI as well as resting-state functional connectivity. Importantly, the results indicated that research concerning diagnostic neuroimaging tools distinguishing between MDD and BD should consider mood state as only depressed subjects with MDD and BD could be correctly classified. Future studies, in larger samples are needed to investigate whether the results can be generalized to medication-naïve or first-episode subjects. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley

Subject-specific computational modeling of DBS in the PPTg area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura M. Zitella

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Deep brain stimulation (DBS in the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTg has been proposed to alleviate medically intractable gait difficulties associated with Parkinson’s disease. Clinical trials have shown somewhat variable outcomes, stemming in part from surgical targeting variability, modulating fiber pathways implicated in side effects, and a general lack of mechanistic understanding of DBS in this brain region. Subject-specific computational models of DBS are a promising tool to investigate the underlying therapy and side effects. In this study, a parkinsonian rhesus macaque was implanted unilaterally with an 8-contact DBS lead in the PPTg region. Fiber tracts adjacent to PPTg, including the oculomotor nerve, central tegmental tract, and superior cerebellar peduncle, were reconstructed from a combination of pre-implant 7T MRI, post-implant CT, and post-mortem histology. These structures were populated with axon models and coupled with a finite element model simulating the voltage distribution in the surrounding neural tissue during stimulation. This study introduces two empirical approaches to evaluate model parameters. First, incremental monopolar cathodic stimulation (20Hz, 90µs pulse width was evaluated for each electrode, during which a right eyelid flutter was observed at the proximal four contacts (-1.0 to -1.4mA. These current amplitudes followed closely with model predicted activation of the oculomotor nerve when assuming an anisotropic conduction medium. Second, PET imaging was collected OFF-DBS and twice during DBS (two different contacts, which supported the model predicted activation of the central tegmental tract and superior cerebellar peduncle. Together, subject-specific models provide a framework to more precisely predict pathways modulated by DBS.

Do Electrochemiluminescence Assays Improve Prediction of Time to Type 1 Diabetes in Autoantibody-Positive TrialNet Subjects?

Science.gov (United States)

Fouts, Alexandra; Pyle, Laura; Yu, Liping; Miao, Dongmei; Michels, Aaron; Krischer, Jeffrey; Sosenko, Jay; Gottlieb, Peter; Steck, Andrea K

2016-10-01

To explore whether electrochemiluminescence (ECL) assays can help improve prediction of time to type 1 diabetes in the TrialNet autoantibody-positive population. TrialNet subjects who were positive for one or more autoantibodies (microinsulin autoantibody, GAD65 autoantibody [GADA], IA-2A, and ZnT8A) with available ECL-insulin autoantibody (IAA) and ECL-GADA data at their initial visit were analyzed; after a median follow-up of 24 months, 177 of these 1,287 subjects developed diabetes. Univariate analyses showed that autoantibodies by radioimmunoassays (RIAs), ECL-IAA, ECL-GADA, age, sex, number of positive autoantibodies, presence of HLA DR3/4-DQ8 genotype, HbA1c, and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) measurements were all significantly associated with progression to diabetes. Subjects who were ECL positive had a risk of progression to diabetes within 6 years of 58% compared with 5% for the ECL-negative subjects (P < 0.0001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were compared, with the base model including age, sex, OGTT measurements, and number of positive autoantibodies by RIAs. The model with positivity for ECL-GADA and/or ECL-IAA was the best, and factors that remained significantly associated with time to diabetes were area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide, fasting C-peptide, AUC glucose, number of positive autoantibodies by RIAs, and ECL positivity. Adding ECL to the Diabetes Prevention Trial risk score (DPTRS) improved the receiver operating characteristic curves with AUC of 0.83 (P < 0.0001). ECL assays improved the ability to predict time to diabetes in these autoantibody-positive relatives at risk for developing diabetes. These findings might be helpful in the design and eligibility criteria for prevention trials in the future. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association.

47 CFR 22.960 - Cellular unserved area radiotelephone licenses subject to competitive bidding.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cellular unserved area radiotelephone licenses... (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES PUBLIC MOBILE SERVICES Cellular Radiotelephone Service § 22.960 Cellular... applications for cellular unserved area Phase I and Phase II licenses filed after July 26, 1993 are subject to...

On the incremental validity of irrational beliefs to predict subjective well-being while controlling for personality factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Spörrle, Matthias; Strobel, Maria; Tumasjan, Andranik

2010-11-01

This research examines the incremental validity of irrational thinking as conceptualized by Albert Ellis to predict diverse aspects of subjective well-being while controlling for the influence of personality factors. Rational-emotive behavior therapy (REBT) argues that irrational beliefs result in maladaptive emotions leading to reduced well-being. Although there is some early scientific evidence for this relation, it has never been investigated whether this connection would still persist when statistically controlling for the Big Five personality factors, which were consistently found to be important determinants of well-being. Regression analyses revealed significant incremental validity of irrationality over personality factors when predicting life satisfaction, but not when predicting subjective happiness. Results are discussed with respect to conceptual differences between these two aspects of subjective well-being.

Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

2000-01-01

Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

Spatial prediction of malaria prevalence in an endemic area of Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Islam Akramul

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health burden in Southeastern Bangladesh, particularly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region. Malaria is endemic in 13 districts of Bangladesh and the highest prevalence occurs in Khagrachari (15.47%. Methods A risk map was developed and geographic risk factors identified using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian geostatistical model was developed from previously identified individual and environmental covariates (p Results Predicted high prevalence areas were located along the north-eastern areas, and central part of the study area. Low to moderate prevalence areas were predicted in the southwestern, southeastern and central regions. Individual age and nearness to fragmented forest were associated with malaria prevalence after adjusting the spatial auto-correlation. Conclusion A Bayesian analytical approach using multiple enabling technologies (geographic information systems, global positioning systems, and remote sensing provide a strategy to characterize spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk at a fine scale. Even in the most hyper endemic region of Bangladesh there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in risk. Areas that are predicted to be at high risk, based on the environment but that have not been reached by surveys are identified.

The Role of Basic Needs Fulfillment in Prediction of Subjective Well-Being among University Students

Science.gov (United States)

Turkdogan, Turgut; Duru, Erdinc

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine the role of fulfillment level of university students' basic needs in predicting the level of their subjective well being. The participants were 627 students (56% female, 44% male) attending different faculties of Pamukkale University. In this study, subjective well being was measured with Life Satisfaction Scale…

Influence of Subjectivity in Geological Mapping on the Net Penetration Rate Prediction for a Hard Rock TBM

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Yongbeom; Macias, Francisco Javier; Jakobsen, Pål Drevland; Bruland, Amund

2018-05-01

The net penetration rate of hard rock tunnel boring machines (TBM) is influenced by rock mass degree of fracturing. This influence is taken into account in the NTNU prediction model by the rock mass fracturing factor ( k s). k s is evaluated by geological mapping, the measurement of the orientation of fractures and the spacing of fractures and fracture type. Geological mapping is a subjective procedure. Mapping results can therefore contain considerable uncertainty. The mapping data of a tunnel mapped by three researchers were compared, and the influence of the variation in geological mapping was estimated to assess the influence of subjectivity in geological mapping. This study compares predicted net penetration rates and actual net penetration rates for TBM tunneling (from field data) and suggests mapping methods that can reduce the error related to subjectivity. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) variation of mapping data between individuals; (2) effect of observed variation on uncertainty in predicted net penetration rates; (3) influence of mapping methods on the difference between predicted and actual net penetration rate.

Sub-kilometer Numerical Weather Prediction in complex urban areas

Science.gov (United States)

Leroyer, S.; Bélair, S.; Husain, S.; Vionnet, V.

2013-12-01

A Sub-kilometer atmospheric modeling system with grid-spacings of 2.5 km, 1 km and 250 m and including urban processes is currently being developed at the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in order to provide more accurate weather forecasts at the city scale. Atmospheric lateral boundary conditions are provided with the 15-km Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS). Surface physical processes are represented with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model for the built-up covers and with the Interactions between the Surface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model for the natural covers. In this study, several research experiments over large metropolitan areas and using observational networks at the urban scale are presented, with a special emphasis on the representation of local atmospheric circulations and their impact on extreme weather forecasting. First, numerical simulations are performed over the Vancouver metropolitan area during a summertime Intense Observing Period (IOP of 14-15 August 2008) of the Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities (EPiCC) observational network. The influence of the horizontal resolution on the fine-scale representation of the sea-breeze development over the city is highlighted (Leroyer et al., 2013). Then severe storms cases occurring in summertime within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are simulated. In view of supporting the 2015 PanAmerican and Para-Pan games to be hold in GTA, a dense observational network has been recently deployed over this region to support model evaluations at the urban and meso scales. In particular, simulations are conducted for the case of 8 July 2013 when exceptional rainfalls were recorded. Leroyer, S., S. Bélair, J. Mailhot, S.Z. Husain, 2013: Sub-kilometer Numerical Weather Prediction in an Urban Coastal Area: A case study over the Vancouver Metropolitan Area, submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Facebook use predicts declines in subjective well-being in young adults.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ethan Kross

Full Text Available Over 500 million people interact daily with Facebook. Yet, whether Facebook use influences subjective well-being over time is unknown. We addressed this issue using experience-sampling, the most reliable method for measuring in-vivo behavior and psychological experience. We text-messaged people five times per day for two-weeks to examine how Facebook use influences the two components of subjective well-being: how people feel moment-to-moment and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our results indicate that Facebook use predicts negative shifts on both of these variables over time. The more people used Facebook at one time point, the worse they felt the next time we text-messaged them; the more they used Facebook over two-weeks, the more their life satisfaction levels declined over time. Interacting with other people "directly" did not predict these negative outcomes. They were also not moderated by the size of people's Facebook networks, their perceived supportiveness, motivation for using Facebook, gender, loneliness, self-esteem, or depression. On the surface, Facebook provides an invaluable resource for fulfilling the basic human need for social connection. Rather than enhancing well-being, however, these findings suggest that Facebook may undermine it.

Performance of Hippocampus Volumetry with FSL-FIRST for Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease Dementia in at Risk Subjects with Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Suppa, Per; Hampel, Harald; Kepp, Timo; Lange, Catharina; Spies, Lothar; Fiebach, Jochen B; Dubois, Bruno; Buchert, Ralph

2016-01-01

MRI-based hippocampus volume, a core feasible biomarker of Alzheimer's disease (AD), is not yet widely used in clinical patient care, partly due to lack of validation of software tools for hippocampal volumetry that are compatible with routine workflow. Here, we evaluate fully-automated and computationally efficient hippocampal volumetry with FSL-FIRST for prediction of AD dementia (ADD) in subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) from phase 1 of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of FSL-FIRST hippocampal volume (corrected for head size and age) revealed an area under the curve of 0.79, 0.70, and 0.70 for prediction of aMCI-to-ADD conversion within 12, 24, or 36 months, respectively. Thus, FSL-FIRST provides about the same power for prediction of progression to ADD in aMCI as other volumetry methods.

Predictive modeling of human perception subjectivity: feasibility study of mammographic lesion similarity

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Songhua; Hudson, Kathleen; Bradley, Yong; Daley, Brian J.; Frederick-Dyer, Katherine; Tourassi, Georgia

2012-02-01

The majority of clinical content-based image retrieval (CBIR) studies disregard human perception subjectivity, aiming to duplicate the consensus expert assessment of the visual similarity on example cases. The purpose of our study is twofold: i) discern better the extent of human perception subjectivity when assessing the visual similarity of two images with similar semantic content, and (ii) explore the feasibility of personalized predictive modeling of visual similarity. We conducted a human observer study in which five observers of various expertise were shown ninety-nine triplets of mammographic masses with similar BI-RADS descriptors and were asked to select the two masses with the highest visual relevance. Pairwise agreement ranged between poor and fair among the five observers, as assessed by the kappa statistic. The observers' self-consistency rate was remarkably low, based on repeated questions where either the orientation or the presentation order of a mass was changed. Various machine learning algorithms were explored to determine whether they can predict each observer's personalized selection using textural features. Many algorithms performed with accuracy that exceeded each observer's self-consistency rate, as determined using a cross-validation scheme. This accuracy was statistically significantly higher than would be expected by chance alone (two-tailed p-value ranged between 0.001 and 0.01 for all five personalized models). The study confirmed that human perception subjectivity should be taken into account when developing CBIR-based medical applications.

Subjective but Not Actigraphy-Defined Sleep Predicts Next-Day Fatigue in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Prospective Daily Diary Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Charlotte; Wearden, Alison J; Fairclough, Gillian; Emsley, Richard A; Kyle, Simon D

2016-04-01

This study aimed to (1) examine the relationship between subjective and actigraphy-defined sleep, and next-day fatigue in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS); and (2) investigate the potential mediating role of negative mood on this relationship. We also sought to examine the effect of presleep arousal on perceptions of sleep. Twenty-seven adults meeting the Oxford criteria for CFS and self-identifying as experiencing sleep difficulties were recruited to take part in a prospective daily diary study, enabling symptom capture in real time over a 6-day period. A paper diary was used to record nightly subjective sleep and presleep arousal. Mood and fatigue symptoms were rated four times each day. Actigraphy was employed to provide objective estimations of sleep duration and continuity. Multilevel modelling revealed that subjective sleep variables, namely sleep quality, efficiency, and perceiving sleep to be unrefreshing, predicted following-day fatigue levels, with poorer subjective sleep related to increased fatigue. Lower subjective sleep efficiency and perceiving sleep as unrefreshing predicted reduced variance in fatigue across the following day. Negative mood on waking partially mediated these relationships. Increased presleep cognitive and somatic arousal predicted self-reported poor sleep. Actigraphy-defined sleep, however, was not found to predict following-day fatigue. For the first time we show that nightly subjective sleep predicts next-day fatigue in CFS and identify important factors driving this relationship. Our data suggest that sleep specific interventions, targeting presleep arousal, perceptions of sleep and negative mood on waking, may improve fatigue in CFS. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Investigating the Predictive Role of Authenticity on Subjective Vitality with Structural Equation Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Akin, Umran; Akin, Ahmet

2014-01-01

Authenticity is a basic personality characteristic that has an important influence on both the psychological and social lives of individuals. Subjective vitality also assumes a facilitative role regarding positive mental health indicators. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the predictive role of authenticity on subjective…

Hanford Environmental Information System (HEIS). Volume 7: Sample and Data Tracking subject area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-06-01

The Hanford Environmental Information System (HEIS) Sample and Data Tracking subject area allows insertion of tracking information into a central repository where the data is immediately available for viewing. For example, a technical coordinator is able to view the current status of a particular sampling effort, from sample collection to data package validation dates. Four major types of data comprise the Sample and Data Tracking subject area: data about the mechanisms that groups a set of samples for a particular sampling effort; data about how constituents are grouped and assigned to a sample; data about when, where, and how samples are sent to a laboratory for analysis; and data bout the status of a sample's constituent analysis requirements, i.e., whether the analysis results have been returned from the laboratory

Assessment of anthropometric parameters including area of the psoas, area of the back muscle, and psoas-vertebra distance as indices for prediction of vertebral fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, Tamotsu; Morita, Masahumi; Mabuchi, Kiyoshi

2005-01-01

We assessed some anthropometric parameters as indices for the prediction of vertebral compression fracture. We measured the area of the total cross section, area of the back muscle, area of the psoas, area of subcutaneous fat tissue, ratio of the right and left area of the psoas, psoas-vertebra distance, the mediolateral length of the back muscle, anteroposterior length of the back muscle, the mediolateral length of the psoas, and anteroposterior length of the psoas, on computed tomography images. Logistic regression analysis was performed in order to test the correlation between each anthropometric parameter and the incidence of fracture. The odds ratio corresponding to one standard deviation of each parameter was calculated. The ratio of center and anterior vertebral heights and the ratio of center and posterior vertebral heights were measured from the positioning image. The smaller value of these was defined as the vertebral height ratio value. Vertebral height ratio was used as the parameter directly related to vertebral fracture. The subjects for research were 25 women with vertebral compression fracture and 36 women without fracture. Vertebral height ratio had a significant correlation with area of the psoas (correlation coefficient, r=0.609 p<0.001), area of the back muscle (r=0.547 p<0.001), and the psoas-vertebra distance (r=-0.523 p<0.001) in the anthropometric parameters. The odds ratios of the area of the psoas (odds ratio, OR:0.18, 95% confidence interval, CI:0.43 to 0.08), area of the back muscle (OR:0.13, 95% CI:0.37 to 0.05), and the psoas-vertebra distance (OR:3.01, 95% CI:6.22 to 1.46) were high. The odds ratio of the mediolateral length of the psoas (OR:0.34, 95% CI:0.67 to 0.18), and the left-to-right area ratio of the psoas (OR:0.41, 95% CI:0.76 to 0.22) were rather high. However, the vertebral height ratio had no significant correlation with the left-to-right area ratio of the psoas. It was considered that area of the psoas, area of the back

Network, anatomical, and non-imaging measures for the prediction of ADHD diagnosis in individual subjects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason W Bohland

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Brain imaging methods have long held promise as diagnostic aids for neuropsychiatric conditions with complex behavioral phenotypes such as Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder. This promise has largely been unrealized, at least partly due to the heterogeneity of clinical populations and the small sample size of many studies. A large, multi-center dataset provided by the ADHD-200 Consortium affords new opportunities to test methods for individual diagnosis based on MRI-observable structural brain attributes and functional interactions observable from resting state fMRI. In this study, we systematically calculated a large set of standard and new quantitative markers from individual subject datasets. These features (>12,000 per subject consisted of local anatomical attributes such as cortical thickness and structure volumes and both local and global resting state network measures. Three methods were used to compute graphs representing interdependencies between activations in different brain areas, and a full set of network features was derived from each. Of these, features derived from the inverse of the time series covariance matrix, under an L1-norm regularization penalty, proved most powerful. Anatomical and network feature sets were used individually, and combined with non-imaging phenotypic features from each subject. Machine learning algorithms were used to rank attributes, and performance was assessed under cross-validation and on a separate test set of 168 subjects for a variety of feature set combinations. While non-imaging features gave highest performance in cross-validation, the addition of imaging features in sufficient numbers led to improved generalization to new data. Stratification by gender also proved to be a fruitful strategy to improve classifier performance. We describe the overall approach used, compare the predictive power of different classes of features, and describe the most impactful features in relation to the

Predictive Factors for Subjective Improvement in Lumbar Spinal Stenosis Patients with Nonsurgical Treatment: A 3-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

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Ko Matsudaira

Full Text Available To assess the predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment in consecutive patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS.Patients with LSS were enrolled from 17 medical centres in Japan. We followed up 274 patients (151 men; mean age, 71 ± 7.4 years for 3 years. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess the predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment.In 30% of patients, conservative treatment led to a subjective improvement in the symptoms; in 70% of patients, the symptoms remained unchanged, worsened, or required surgical treatment. The multivariable analysis of predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment showed that the absence of cauda equina symptoms (only radicular symptoms had an odds ratio (OR of 3.31 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-7.31; absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis had an OR of 2.53 (95% CI: 1.13-5.65; <1-year duration of illness had an OR of 3.81 (95% CI: 1.46-9.98; and hypertension had an OR of 2.09 (95% CI: 0.92-4.78.The predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment in LSS patients were the presence of only radicular symptoms, absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis, and an illness duration of <1 year.

Remaining useful life prediction of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance: Application to draught fans

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhao-Qiang; Hu, Chang-Hua; Si, Xiao-Sheng; Zio, Enrico

2018-02-01

Current degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction studies share a common assumption that the degrading systems are not maintained or maintained perfectly (i.e., to an as-good-as new state). This paper concerns the issues of how to model the degradation process and predict the remaining useful life of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance activities, which can restore the health condition of a degrading system to any degradation level between as-good-as new and as-bad-as old. Toward this end, a nonlinear model driven by Wiener process is first proposed to characterize the degradation trajectory of the degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, where negative jumps are incorporated to quantify the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on the system's degradation. Then, the probability density function of the remaining useful life is derived analytically by a space-scale transformation, i.e., transforming the constructed degradation model with negative jumps crossing a constant threshold level to a Wiener process model crossing a random threshold level. To implement the proposed method, unknown parameters in the degradation model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Finally, the proposed degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction method are applied to a practical case of draught fans belonging to a kind of mechanical systems from steel mills. The results reveal that, for a degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, our proposed method can obtain more accurate remaining useful life predictions than those of the benchmark model in literature.

Leaf Area Prediction Using Three Alternative Sampling Methods for Seven Sierra Nevada Conifer Species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dryw A. Jones

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Prediction of projected tree leaf area using allometric relationships with sapwood cross-sectional area is common in tree- and stand-level production studies. Measuring sapwood is difficult and often requires destructive sampling. This study tested multiple leaf area prediction models across seven diverse conifer species in the Sierra Nevada of California. The best-fit whole tree leaf area prediction model for overall simplicity, accuracy, and utility for all seven species was a nonlinear model with basal area as the primary covariate. A new non-destructive procedure was introduced to extend the branch summation approach to leaf area data collection on trees that cannot be destructively sampled. There were no significant differences between fixed effects assigned to sampling procedures, indicating that data from the tested sampling procedures can be combined for whole tree leaf area modeling purposes. These results indicate that, for the species sampled, accurate leaf area estimates can be obtained through partially-destructive sampling and using common forest inventory data.

Within-Subject Correlation Analysis to Detect Functional Areas Associated With Response Inhibition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomoko Yamasaki

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Functional areas in fMRI studies are often detected by brain-behavior correlation, calculating across-subject correlation between the behavioral index and the brain activity related to a function of interest. Within-subject correlation analysis is also employed in a single subject level, which utilizes cognitive fluctuations in a shorter time period by correlating the behavioral index with the brain activity across trials. In the present study, the within-subject analysis was applied to the stop-signal task, a standard task to probe response inhibition, where efficiency of response inhibition can be evaluated by the stop-signal reaction time (SSRT. Since the SSRT is estimated, by definition, not in a trial basis but from pooled trials, the correlation across runs was calculated between the SSRT and the brain activity related to response inhibition. The within-subject correlation revealed negative correlations in the anterior cingulate cortex and the cerebellum. Moreover, the dissociation pattern was observed in the within-subject analysis when earlier vs. later parts of the runs were analyzed: negative correlation was dominant in earlier runs, whereas positive correlation was dominant in later runs. Regions of interest analyses revealed that the negative correlation in the anterior cingulate cortex, but not in the cerebellum, was dominant in earlier runs, suggesting multiple mechanisms associated with inhibitory processes that fluctuate on a run-by-run basis. These results indicate that the within-subject analysis compliments the across-subject analysis by highlighting different aspects of cognitive/affective processes related to response inhibition.

Screening for frailty in community-dwelling elderly subjects: Predictive validity of the modified SEGA instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Oubaya, N; Dramé, M; Novella, J-L; Quignard, E; Cunin, C; Jolly, D; Mahmoudi, R

2017-11-01

To study the capacity of the SEGAm instrument to predict loss of independence among elderly community-dwelling subjects. The study was performed in four French departments (Ardennes, Marne, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Meuse). Subjects aged 65 years or more, living at home, who could read and understand French, with a degree of autonomy corresponding to groups 5 or 6 in the AGGIR autonomy evaluation scale were included. Assessment included demographic characteristics, comprehensive geriatric assessment, and the SEGAm instrument at baseline. Subjects had follow-up visits at home at 6 and 12 months. During follow-up, vital status and level of independence were recorded. Logistic regression was used to study predictive validity of the SEGAm instrument. Among the 116 subjects with complete follow-up, 84 (72.4%) were classed as not very frail at baseline, 23 (19.8%) as frail, and 9 (7.8%) as very frail; 63 (54.3%) suffered loss of at least one ADL or IADL at 12 months. By multivariable analysis, frailty status at baseline was significantly associated with loss of independence during the 12 months of follow-up (OR=4.52, 95% CI=1.40-14.68; p=0.01). We previously validated the SEGAm instrument in terms of feasibility, acceptability, internal structure validity, reliability, and discriminant validity. This instrument appears to be a suitable tool for screening frailty among community-dwelling elderly subjects, and could be used as a basis to plan early targeted interventions for subjects at risk of adverse outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving Students' Transfer of Learning among Subject Areas through the Use of an Integrated Curriculum and Alternative Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Boidy, Tish; Moran, Michelle

An intervention program sought to improve third- and fifth- grade students' ability to transfer learning among subject areas and to apply their learning to everyday occurrences. Surveys and interviews revealed the lack of student transference of knowledge among subject areas; teacher surveys and an interview with the curriculum director provided…

Controlling factors of uranium mineralization and prospect prediction in Qimantage area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao Chunling; Zhu Pengfei; Cai Yuqi; Zhang Wenming; Zhao Yong'an; Song Jiye; Zhang Xiaojin

2011-01-01

Based on the analysis of regional geology in Qimantage area, the condition for uranium mineralization is summarized in regional geology setting, volcanic, granite and faults. This study shows that this area has favorable prospect for uranium mineralization. The metallogenic model is built up according to the controlling factors over uranium mineralization. Under this model, six potential areas are predicted in MRAS software with mineralization factors of synthetically geological information method. (authors)

Does area V3A predict positions of moving objects?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerrit W Maus

2010-11-01

Full Text Available A gradually fading moving object is perceived to disappear at positions beyond its luminance detection threshold, whereas abrupt offsets are usually localised accurately. What role does retinotopic activity in visual cortex play in this motion-induced mislocalization of the endpoint of fading objects? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, we localised regions of interest (ROIs in retinotopic maps abutting the trajectory endpoint of a bar moving either towards or away from this position while gradually decreasing or increasing in luminance. Area V3A showed predictive activity, with stronger fMRI responses for motion towards versus away from the ROI. This effect was independent of the change in luminance. In Area V1 we found higher activity for high-contrast onsets and offsets near the ROI, but no significant differences between motion directions. We suggest that perceived final positions of moving objects are based on an interplay of predictive position representations in higher motion-sensitive retinotopic areas and offset transients in primary visual cortex.

Factors associated with diabetes mellitus prediction among pregnant Arab subjects with gestational diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Aljohani, Naji; Al Serehi, Amal; Ahmed, Amjad M; Buhary, Badr Aldin M; Alzahrani, Saad; At-Taras, Eeman; Almujally, Najla; Alsharqi, Maha; Alqahtani, Mohammed; Almalki, Mussa

2015-01-01

There is scarcity of available information on the possible significant risk factors related to diabetes mellitus (DM) prediction among expectant Saudi mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The present study is the first to identify such risk factors in the Arab cohort. A total of 300 pregnant subjects (mean age 33.45 ± 6.5 years) were randomly selected from all the deliveries registered at the Obstetrics Department of King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh Saudi Arabia from April 2011 to March 2013. Demographic and baseline glycemic information were collected. A total of 7 highly significant and independent risk factors were identified: age, obesity, and family history of DM, GDM < 20 weeks, macrosomia, insulin therapy and recurrent GDM. Among these factors, subjects who had insulin therapy use are 5 times more likely to develop DMT2 (p-value 3.94 × 10(-14)) followed by recurrent GDM [odds-ratio 4.69 (Confidence Interval 2.34-4.84); P = 1.24 × 10(-13)). The identification of the risk factors mentioned with their respective predictive powers in the detection of DMT2 needs to be taken seriously in the post-partum assessment of Saudi pregnant patients at highest risk.

Literacy as Self-Expression: Interpreting the Subject Areas through the Arts. Research into Practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Karen D.; Finke, Janet; Douville, Patricia

1999-01-01

Examines self-expression in art, drama, and gesture, offering practical strategies that can be used across subject areas to enhance students' literacy performance. Discusses the way creative projects can motivate student language use and participation in history and science projects. (JPB)

Using Tree Detection Algorithms to Predict Stand Sapwood Area, Basal Area and Stocking Density in Eucalyptus regnans Forest

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Dominik Jaskierniak

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Managers of forested water supply catchments require efficient and accurate methods to quantify changes in forest water use due to changes in forest structure and density after disturbance. Using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR data with as few as 0.9 pulses m−2, we applied a local maximum filtering (LMF method and normalised cut (NCut algorithm to predict stocking density (SDen of a 69-year-old Eucalyptus regnans forest comprising 251 plots with resolution of the order of 0.04 ha. Using the NCut method we predicted basal area (BAHa per hectare and sapwood area (SAHa per hectare, a well-established proxy for transpiration. Sapwood area was also indirectly estimated with allometric relationships dependent on LiDAR derived SDen and BAHa using a computationally efficient procedure. The individual tree detection (ITD rates for the LMF and NCut methods respectively had 72% and 68% of stems correctly identified, 25% and 20% of stems missed, and 2% and 12% of stems over-segmented. The significantly higher computational requirement of the NCut algorithm makes the LMF method more suitable for predicting SDen across large forested areas. Using NCut derived ITD segments, observed versus predicted stand BAHa had R2 ranging from 0.70 to 0.98 across six catchments, whereas a generalised parsimonious model applied to all sites used the portion of hits greater than 37 m in height (PH37 to explain 68% of BAHa. For extrapolating one ha resolution SAHa estimates across large forested catchments, we found that directly relating SAHa to NCut derived LiDAR indices (R2 = 0.56 was slightly more accurate but computationally more demanding than indirect estimates of SAHa using allometric relationships consisting of BAHa (R2 = 0.50 or a sapwood perimeter index, defined as (BAHaSDen½ (R2 = 0.48.

Predicting Traffic Flow in Local Area Networks by the Largest Lyapunov Exponent

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The dynamics of network traffic are complex and nonlinear, and chaotic behaviors and their prediction, which play an important role in local area networks (LANs, are studied in detail, using the largest Lyapunov exponent. With the introduction of phase space reconstruction based on the time sequence, the high-dimensional traffic is projected onto the low dimension reconstructed phase space, and a reduced dynamic system is obtained from the dynamic system viewpoint. Then, a numerical method for computing the largest Lyapunov exponent of the low-dimensional dynamic system is presented. Further, the longest predictable time, which is related to chaotic behaviors in the system, is studied using the largest Lyapunov exponent, and the Wolf method is used to predict the evolution of the traffic in a local area network by both Dot and Interval predictions, and a reliable result is obtained by the presented method. As the conclusion, the results show that the largest Lyapunov exponent can be used to describe the sensitivity of the trajectory in the reconstructed phase space to the initial values. Moreover, Dot Prediction can effectively predict the flow burst. The numerical simulation also shows that the presented method is feasible and efficient for predicting the complex dynamic behaviors in LAN traffic, especially for congestion and attack in networks, which are the main two complex phenomena behaving as chaos in networks.

Subjective evaluation of the accuracy of video imaging prediction following orthognathic surgery in Chinese patients

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chew, Ming Tak; Koh, Chay Hui; Sandham, John; Wong, Hwee Bee

Purpose: The aims of this retrospective study were to assess the subjective accuracy of predictions generated by a computer imaging software in Chinese patients who had undergone orthognathic surgery and to determine the influence of initial dysgnathia and complexity of the surgical procedure on

The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

2017-03-01

Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What predicts inattention in adolescents? An experience-sampling study comparing chronotype, subjective, and objective sleep parameters.

Science.gov (United States)

Hennig, Timo; Krkovic, Katarina; Lincoln, Tania M

2017-10-01

Many adolescents sleep insufficiently, which may negatively affect their functioning during the day. To improve sleep interventions, we need a better understanding of the specific sleep-related parameters that predict poor functioning. We investigated to which extent subjective and objective parameters of sleep in the preceding night (state parameters) and the trait variable chronotype predict daytime inattention as an indicator of poor functioning. We conducted an experience-sampling study over one week with 61 adolescents (30 girls, 31 boys; mean age = 15.5 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). Participants rated their inattention two times each day (morning, afternoon) on a smartphone. Subjective sleep parameters (feeling rested, positive affect upon awakening) were assessed each morning on the smartphone. Objective sleep parameters (total sleep time, sleep efficiency, wake after sleep onset) were assessed with a permanently worn actigraph. Chronotype was assessed with a self-rated questionnaire at baseline. We tested the effect of subjective and objective state parameters of sleep on daytime inattention, using multilevel multiple regressions. Then, we tested whether the putative effect of the trait parameter chronotype on inattention is mediated through state sleep parameters, again using multilevel regressions. We found that short sleep time, but no other state sleep parameter, predicted inattention to a small effect. As expected, the trait parameter chronotype also predicted inattention: morningness was associated with less inattention. However, this association was not mediated by state sleep parameters. Our results indicate that short sleep time causes inattention in adolescents. Extended sleep time might thus alleviate inattention to some extent. However, it cannot alleviate the effect of being an 'owl'. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

Science.gov (United States)

Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

2015-05-01

The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the location of human perirhinal cortex, Brodmann's area 35, from MRI

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Augustinack, Jean C.; Huber, Kristen E.; Stevens, Allison A.

2013-01-01

resolution labels to the surface models to localize area 35 in fourteen cases. We validated the area boundaries determined using histological Nissl staining. To test the accuracy of the probabilistic mapping, we measured the Hausdorff distance between the predicted and true labels and found that the median...

Executive functioning performance predicts subjective and physiological acute stress reactivity: preliminary results.

Science.gov (United States)

Hendrawan, Donny; Yamakawa, Kaori; Kimura, Motohiro; Murakami, Hiroki; Ohira, Hideki

2012-06-01

Individual differences in baseline executive functioning (EF) capacities have been shown to predict state anxiety during acute stressor exposure. However, no previous studies have clearly demonstrated the relationship between EF and physiological measures of stress. The present study investigated the efficacy of several well-known EF tests (letter fluency, Stroop test, and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test) in predicting both subjective and physiological stress reactivity during acute psychosocial stress exposure. Our results show that letter fluency served as the best predictor for both types of reactivity. Specifically, the higher the letter fluency score, the lower the acute stress reactivity after controlling for the baseline stress response, as indicated by lower levels of state anxiety, negative mood, salivary cortisol, and skin conductance. Moreover, the predictive power of the letter fluency test remained significant for state anxiety and cortisol indices even after further adjustments for covariates by adding the body mass index (BMI) as a covariate. Thus, good EF performance, as reflected by high letter fluency scores, may dampen acute stress responses, which suggests that EF processes are directly associated with aspects of stress regulation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chewing side, bite force symmetry, and occlusal contact area of subjects with different facial vertical patterns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simone Guimarães Farias Gomes

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Craniofacial dimensions influence oral functions; however, it is not known whether they are associated with function asymmetry. The objective of this study was to evaluate chewing side preference and lateral asymmetry of occlusal contact area and bite force of individuals with different craniofacial patterns. Seventy-eight dentate subjects were divided into 3 groups according to the VERT index as follows: (1 mesofacial, (2 brachyfacial and (3 dolichofacial. Chewing side preference was evaluated using jaw tracking equipment, occlusal contact area was measured by silicon registration of posterior teeth, and bite force was measured unilaterally on molar regions using 2.25 mm-thick sensors. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA on Ranks, Student's t-test, and Mann-Whitney tests at a 5% significance level. Mesofacial, brachyfacial, and dolichofacial subjects presented more occlusal contact area on the left side. Only dolichofacial subjects showed lateral asymmetry for bite force, presenting higher force on the left side. No statistically significant differences were found for chewing side preference among all groups. Within the limitations of this study, it can be concluded that craniofacial dimensions play a role in asymmetry of bite force. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01286363.

Cognitive Components Predict Virtual Reality-Induced Analgesia: Repeated Measures in Healthy Subjects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naor Demeter

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Virtual reality (VR is an advanced and useful technology in the distraction from pain. The efficacy of VR for reducing pain is well established. Yet, the literature analyzing the unique attributes of VR which impact pain reduction is scarce. The present study evaluated the effect of two VR environments on experimental pain levels. Both VR environments are games used with an EyeToy application which is part of the video capture VR family. The VR environments were analyzed by expert occupational therapists using a method of activity analysis, allowing for a thorough evaluation of the VR activity performance requirements. The VR environments were found to differ in the cognitive load (CL demands they apply upon subjects. Sixty-two healthy students underwent psychophysical thermal pain tests, followed by exposure to tonic heat stimulation under one of three conditions: Low CL (LCL VR, high CL (HCL VR, and control. In addition, following participation in VR, the subjects completed a self-feedback inventory evaluating their experience in VR. The results showed significantly greater pain reduction during both VR conditions compared to the control condition (p = 0.001. Hierarchical regression revealed cognitive components which were evaluated in the self-feedback inventory to be predictive factors for pain reduction only during the high cognitive load (HCL VR environment (20.2%. CL involved in VR may predict the extent of pain decrease, a finding that should be considered in future clinical and laboratory research.

WHAT ARE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS PH.D. STUDENTS LEARNING ABOUT AGRIBUSINESS RESEARCH METHODS AND SUBJECT AREAS?

OpenAIRE

House, Lisa; Sterns, James A.

2002-01-01

This document contains the PowerPoint presentation given by the authors at the 2002 WCC-72 meetings, regarding what agricultural economics Ph.D students are learning about agribusiness research methods and subject areas.

The ability of an electrocardiogram to predict fatal and non-fatal cardiac events in asymptomatic middle-aged subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Terho, Henri K; Tikkanen, Jani T; Kenttä, Tuomas V; Junttila, M Juhani; Aro, Aapo L; Anttonen, Olli; Kerola, Tuomas; Rissanen, Harri A; Knekt, Paul; Reunanen, Antti; Huikuri, Heikki V

2016-11-01

The long-term prognostic value of a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) for predicting cardiac events in apparently healthy middle-aged subjects is not well defined. A total of 9511 middle-aged subjects (mean age 43 ± 8.2 years, 52% males) without a known cardiac disease and with a follow-up 40 years were included in the study. Fatal and non-fatal cardiac events were collected from the national registries. The predictive value of ECG was separately analyzed for 10 and 30 years. Major ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota code. Subjects with major ECG abnormalities (N = 1131) had an increased risk of cardiac death after 10-years (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.7; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.1-2.5, p = 0.009) and 30-years of follow-up (HR 1.3, 95% CI, 1.1-1.5, p electrocardiogram are shown to have prognostic significance for cardiac events in elderly subjects without known cardiac disease. Our results suggest that ECG abnormalities increase the risk of fatal cardiac events also in middle-aged healthy subjects.

Development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. Current status and future subjects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Yamamoto, Yasunori; Kusunoki, Takayoshi; Kawasaki, Ikuo; Yanagi, Chihiro; Kinoshita, Ikuo; Iwasaki, Yoshito

2014-01-01

Nuclear licensees are required to maintain a prediction system during normal condition for using a nuclear emergency by the Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention of government. With prediction of the incident progress, if the present condition of nuclear power plant is understood appropriately and it grows more serious with keeping the present situation, it is in predicting what kind of situation will be occurred in the near future, choosing the effective countermeasures against the coming threat, and understanding the time available of intervention time. Following the accident on September 30 1999 in the nuclear fuel fabrication facility in Tokai Village of Ibaraki Prefecture, the Institute of Nuclear Safety System started development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. We have performed technical applications and made improvements in nuclear emergency exercises and verified the developed systems using the observed values of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. As a result, our developed Incident Progress Prediction System was applied to nuclear emergency exercises and we accumulated knowledge and experience by which we improved the system to make predictions more rapidly and more precisely, including for example, the development of a prediction method for leak size of reactor coolant. On the other hand, if a rapidly progressing incident occurs, since end users need simple and quick predictions about the public's protection and evacuation areas, we developed the Radioactive Materials Release, Radiation Dose and Radiological Protection Area Prediction System which changed solving an inverse problem into a forward problem solution. In view of the water-level-decline incident of the spent fuel storage facility at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, the spent fuel storage facility water level and the water temperature evaluation tool were improved. Such incident progress prediction technologies were

Musical emotions: predicting second-by-second subjective feelings of emotion from low-level psychoacoustic features and physiological measurements.

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Coutinho, Eduardo; Cangelosi, Angelo

2011-08-01

We sustain that the structure of affect elicited by music is largely dependent on dynamic temporal patterns in low-level music structural parameters. In support of this claim, we have previously provided evidence that spatiotemporal dynamics in psychoacoustic features resonate with two psychological dimensions of affect underlying judgments of subjective feelings: arousal and valence. In this article we extend our previous investigations in two aspects. First, we focus on the emotions experienced rather than perceived while listening to music. Second, we evaluate the extent to which peripheral feedback in music can account for the predicted emotional responses, that is, the role of physiological arousal in determining the intensity and valence of musical emotions. Akin to our previous findings, we will show that a significant part of the listeners' reported emotions can be predicted from a set of six psychoacoustic features--loudness, pitch level, pitch contour, tempo, texture, and sharpness. Furthermore, the accuracy of those predictions is improved with the inclusion of physiological cues--skin conductance and heart rate. The interdisciplinary work presented here provides a new methodology to the field of music and emotion research based on the combination of computational and experimental work, which aid the analysis of the emotional responses to music, while offering a platform for the abstract representation of those complex relationships. Future developments may aid specific areas, such as, psychology and music therapy, by providing coherent descriptions of the emotional effects of specific music stimuli. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

Rigid-Plastic Approximations for Predicting Plastic Deformation of Cylindrical Shells Subject to Dynamic Loading

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Michelle S. Hoo Fatt

1996-01-01

Full Text Available A theoretical approach was developed for predicting the plastic deformation of a cylindrical shell subject to asymmetric dynamic loads. The plastic deformation of the leading generator of the shell is found by solving for the transverse deflections of a rigid-plastic beam/string-on-foundation. The axial bending moment and tensile force in the beam/string are equivalent to the longitudinal bending moments and membrane forces of the shell, while the plastic foundation force is equivalent to the shell circumferential bending moment and membrane resistances. Closed-form solutions for the transient and final deformation profile of an impulsive loaded shell when it is in a “string” state were derived using the eigenfunction expansion method. These results were compared to DYNA 3D predictions. The analytical predictions of the transient shell and final centerline deflections were within 25% of the DYNA 3D results.

The Role of Senior University Students' Career Adaptability in Predicting Their Subjective Well-Being

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Kirdök, Oguzhan; Bölükbasi, Ayten

2018-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine whether career adaptability and career adaptability subscales of senior undergraduates could predict subjective well-being. The research was a descriptive correlational study which was conducted on 310 senior students (173 women, 137 men) in a state-funded university on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey and…

Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates

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Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall

2014-01-01

Forest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model...

The Measurement of Relevance Amount of Documents That By Using of Google cross-language retrieval About Agriculture Subject Area are Retrieved

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Fatemeh Jamshidi Ghahfarokhi

2014-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, the relevance amount of documents has been investigated by using google cross-language retrieval tools about a agriculture subject area in cross-language retrieval form, are retrieved. For this purpose, by using Persian journals articles that have had English abstracts, Persian phrases and subject terms with their English equivalent were extracted. In three class us, thirty number of phrases and subject terms of agriculture area were extracted: First class, subject phrases that only in agriculture are used; Secondary, agriculture subject terms that in other fields are used too; Third class, agriculture subject terms that out of this field are considered as public term. Then by these phrases and terms, documents were searched, and relevance amount of search results are investigated. Results of study showed that google cross-language retrieval tools for two classes of phrases and terms, in cross-language retrieval of relevance document about agriculture subject area, aren`t succeed: one class, agriculture subject terms that in other fields are used too. other class, agriculture subject terms that out of agriculture field are considered as public term. Google cross-language retrieval tools about subject phrase and terms that only in agriculture field are used, are performance rather desirable than other two class of phrase and terms

Baseline social amotivation predicts 1-year functioning in UHR subjects: A validation and prospective investigation.

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Lam, Max; Abdul Rashid, Nur Amirah; Lee, Sara-Ann; Lim, Jeanette; Foussias, George; Fervaha, Gagan; Ruhrman, Stephan; Remington, Gary; Lee, Jimmy

2015-12-01

Social amotivation and diminished expression have been reported to underlie negative symptomatology in schizophrenia. In the current study we sought to establish and validate these negative symptom domains in a large cohort of schizophrenia subjects (n=887) and individuals who are deemed to be Ultra-High Risk (UHR) for psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis conducted on PANSS item domains demonstrate that the dual negative symptom domains exist in schizophrenia and UHR subjects. We further sought to examine if these negative symptom domains were associated with functioning in UHR subjects. Linear regression analyses confirmed that social amotivation predicted functioning in UHR subjects prospectively at 1 year follow up. Results suggest that the association between social amotivation and functioning is generalisable beyond schizophrenia populations to those who are at-risk of developing psychosis. Social amotivation may be an important dimensional clinical construct to be studied across a range of psychiatric conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

Predicting subject-driven actions and sensory experience in a virtual world with relevance vector machine regression of fMRI data.

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Valente, Giancarlo; De Martino, Federico; Esposito, Fabrizio; Goebel, Rainer; Formisano, Elia

2011-05-15

In this work we illustrate the approach of the Maastricht Brain Imaging Center to the PBAIC 2007 competition, where participants had to predict, based on fMRI measurements of brain activity, subject driven actions and sensory experience in a virtual world. After standard pre-processing (slice scan time correction, motion correction), we generated rating predictions based on linear Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) learning from all brain voxels. Spatial and temporal filtering of the time series was optimized rating by rating. For some of the ratings (e.g. Instructions, Hits, Faces, Velocity), linear RVM regression was accurate and very consistent within and between subjects. For other ratings (e.g. Arousal, Valence) results were less satisfactory. Our approach ranked overall second. To investigate the role of different brain regions in ratings prediction we generated predictive maps, i.e. maps of the weighted contribution of each voxel to the predicted rating. These maps generally included (but were not limited to) "specialized" regions which are consistent with results from conventional neuroimaging studies and known functional neuroanatomy. In conclusion, Sparse Bayesian Learning models, such as RVM, appear to be a valuable approach to the multivariate regression of fMRI time series. The implementation of the Automatic Relevance Determination criterion is particularly suitable and provides a good generalization, despite the limited number of samples which is typically available in fMRI. Predictive maps allow disclosing multi-voxel patterns of brain activity that predict perceptual and behavioral subjective experience. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Subjective social status predicts in vivo responsiveness of β-adrenergic receptors.

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Euteneuer, Frank; Mills, Paul J; Rief, Winfried; Ziegler, Michael G; Dimsdale, Joel E

2012-07-01

Several poor health outcomes, including cardiovascular risk, have been associated with both subjective social status (SSS) and sympathetic overactivity. Because prolonged sympathetic overactivation down regulates beta adrenergic receptor (β-AR) function, reduced β-AR responsiveness is considered an indicator of sympathetic overactivity and a cardiovascular risk factor. Though prior research has focused on objective social status and β-AR function, no studies have examined the association between SSS and β-AR function. We aimed to learn whether SSS predicts the in vivo responsiveness of β-ARs. We assessed the chronotropic 25 dose (CD25), an in vivo marker of β-AR responsiveness, in 94 healthy participants. The MacArthur scales of subjective social status were used to assess SSS in the U.S.A. (SSS-USA) and in the local community (SSS-C). Objective social status was analyzed by calculating the Hollingshead two-factor index. β-AR responsiveness was reduced (as indicated by higher CD25 values) in participants with lower SSS-USA (p = .007) and lower SSS-C (p social status. Our results indicate that β-AR function may be an important component of the link between SSS and health.

Beyond intensity: Spectral features effectively predict music-induced subjective arousal.

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Gingras, Bruno; Marin, Manuela M; Fitch, W Tecumseh

2014-01-01

Emotions in music are conveyed by a variety of acoustic cues. Notably, the positive association between sound intensity and arousal has particular biological relevance. However, although amplitude normalization is a common procedure used to control for intensity in music psychology research, direct comparisons between emotional ratings of original and amplitude-normalized musical excerpts are lacking. In this study, 30 nonmusicians retrospectively rated the subjective arousal and pleasantness induced by 84 six-second classical music excerpts, and an additional 30 nonmusicians rated the same excerpts normalized for amplitude. Following the cue-redundancy and Brunswik lens models of acoustic communication, we hypothesized that arousal and pleasantness ratings would be similar for both versions of the excerpts, and that arousal could be predicted effectively by other acoustic cues besides intensity. Although the difference in mean arousal and pleasantness ratings between original and amplitude-normalized excerpts correlated significantly with the amplitude adjustment, ratings for both sets of excerpts were highly correlated and shared a similar range of values, thus validating the use of amplitude normalization in music emotion research. Two acoustic parameters, spectral flux and spectral entropy, accounted for 65% of the variance in arousal ratings for both sets, indicating that spectral features can effectively predict arousal. Additionally, we confirmed that amplitude-normalized excerpts were adequately matched for loudness. Overall, the results corroborate our hypotheses and support the cue-redundancy and Brunswik lens models.

Predicting the presence and cover of management relevant invasive plant species on protected areas.

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Iacona, Gwenllian; Price, Franklin D; Armsworth, Paul R

2016-01-15

Invasive species are a management concern on protected areas worldwide. Conservation managers need to predict infestations of invasive plants they aim to treat if they want to plan for long term management. Many studies predict the presence of invasive species, but predictions of cover are more relevant for management. Here we examined how predictors of invasive plant presence and cover differ across species that vary in their management priority. To do so, we used data on management effort and cover of invasive plant species on central Florida protected areas. Using a zero-inflated multiple regression framework, we showed that protected area features can predict the presence and cover of the focal species but the same features rarely explain both. There were several predictors of either presence or cover that were important across multiple species. Protected areas with three days of frost per year or fewer were more likely to have occurrences of four of the six focal species. When invasive plants were present, their proportional cover was greater on small preserves for all species, and varied with surrounding household density for three species. None of the predictive features were clearly related to whether species were prioritized for management or not. Our results suggest that predictors of cover and presence can differ both within and across species but do not covary with management priority. We conclude that conservation managers need to select predictors of invasion with care as species identity can determine the relationship between predictors of presence and the more management relevant predictors of cover. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cervical gland area as an ultrasound marker for prediction of preterm delivery: A cohort study

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Vajiheh Marsoosi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Preterm labor is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality and it might be predicted by assessing the cervical change. Objective: To assess the association between absence of cervical gland area (CGA and spontaneous preterm labor (SPTL. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was performed on 200 singleton pregnant women with a history of SPTL, second-trimester abortion in the previous pregnancy or lower abdominal pain in current pregnancy. Each patient underwent one transvaginal ultrasound examination between 14-28 wk of gestation. Cervical length was measured and CGA was identified and their relationship with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation was evaluated using STATA software version 10. Results: The mean of cervical length was 36.5 mm (SD=8.4, the shortest measurement was 9 mm, and the longest one was 61 mm. Short cervical length (≤18mm was significantly associated with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation. Cervical gland area (the hypoechogenic or echogenic area around the cervical canal was present in 189 (94.5% patients. Absent of CGA had a significant relationship with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation (p=0.01 and p<0.001, respectively. Cervical length was shorter in women with absent CGA in comparison with subjects with present CGA: 37±10 mm in CGA present group and 23±9 mm in CGA absent group (p<0.001. Conclusion: Our study showed that cervical gland area might be an important predictor of SPTL which should be confirmed with further researches.

Semiautomatic Segmentation of Rim Area Focal Hyperautofluorescence Predicts Progression of Geographic Atrophy Due to Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Allingham, Michael J; Nie, Qing; Lad, Eleonora M; Izatt, Daniel J; Mettu, Priyatham S; Cousins, Scott W; Farsiu, Sina

2016-04-01

To develop image analysis software usable by nonexpert graders to segment geographic atrophy (GA) from dry AMD and to quantify rim area focal hyperautofluorescence (RAFH) surrounding GA on fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images. To compare the GA progression predictions based on RAFH with those of a validated qualitative classification system. Retrospective analysis of serial FAF images from 49 eyes of 30 subjects with GA was performed using MATLAB-based software (MathWorks, Natick, MA, USA). Correlation between RAFH and progression of GA was analyzed using Spearman correlation. Comparisons of lesion growth rate between RAFH tertiles used generalized estimating equations and Kruskal-Wallis testing. Interobserver variability in lesion size, growth rate and RAFH were compared between two expert and one nonexpert grader using Bland-Altman statistics. Rim area focal hyperautofluorescence was positively correlated with GA progression rate (ρ = 0.49, P < 0.001). Subjects in the middle or highest RAFH tertile were at greater risk of progression (P = 0.005 and P = 0.001, respectively). Mean difference in RAFH was 0.012 between expert and -0.005 to 0.017 between expert and nonexperts. Mean difference in lesion size (mm2) was 0.11 between expert and -0.29 to 0.41 between expert and nonexperts. Mean difference in lesion growth rate (mm2/mo) was 0.0098 between expert and -0.027 to 0.037 between expert and nonexperts. Risk stratification based on RAFH tertile was 96% identical across all graders. Our semiautomated image analysis software facilitates stratification of progression risk based on RAFH and enabled a nonexpert grader with minimal training to obtain results comparable to expert graders. Predictions based on RAFH were similar to those of a validated qualitative classification system.

Getting off on the right foot: subjective value versus economic value in predicting longitudinal job outcomes from job offer negotiations.

Science.gov (United States)

Curhan, Jared R; Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Kilduff, Gavin J

2009-03-01

Although negotiation experiences can affect a negotiator's ensuing attitudes and behavior, little is known about their long-term consequences. Using a longitudinal survey design, the authors tested the degree to which economic and subjective value achieved in job offer negotiations predicts employees' subsequent job attitudes and intentions concerning turnover. Results indicate that subjective value predicts greater compensation satisfaction and job satisfaction and lower turnover intention measured 1 year later. Surprisingly, the economic outcomes that negotiators achieved had no apparent effects on these factors. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Evaluation of thyroid function in female subjects living in the high natural background radiation area of Karunagappally, Kerala

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sreekumar, A.; Nair, Raghu Ram K.; Jayalakshmi, P.; Sebastian, P.; Akiba, S.

2010-01-01

Radiation exposure has been reported to cause non cancer thyroid abnormalities like diffuse goiter and thyroid nodules. The present study was undertaken to see if there are any morphological and functional changes taking place in the thyroid due to chronic low level radiation exposure. 257 female subjects living in the four high background radiation panchayats of Chavara, Neendakara, Alappad and Panmana were selected for the study after getting informed consent. 5 ml of blood was drawn from these subjects for assessing thyroid function. The subjects were all staying in the same area since their birth and had not moved out for more than one year at a stretch. The average age of the subjects was 40.5y with a range of 17-66y. The cumulative dose had a mean of 226.3 mGy and a range of 20.6-937.8 mGy. 95 subjects from the low background area of Oachira and Thevalakkara were selected as controls in the age group of 18-63y with a mean age of 47.1y. The mean cumulative dose of this group was 35.9 mGy with a minimum of 5.3 mGy and a maximum of 106.8 mGy. 5 ml blood was collected from these subjects for thyroid function studies. All the subjects underwent ultrasound examination of the thyroid using a 10 MHz frequency linear probe. The following parameters were studied to assess thyroid function: Free T4, TSH, Antithyroglobulin antibody (ATG), Parathyroid hormone. Ultrasound images showed the following common features: Normal - 171, Suggestive of Thyroiditis - 106, Multinodular Goitre - 63, Diffuse Goitre - 5, Solitary Nodule - 31. 73 subjects had elevated TSH and 190 subjects had raised ATG. A significant numbers of subjects had features of thyroiditis. A comparative evaluation with control subjects will be done to assess its significance with reference to cumulative dose

Cesium residue leachate migration in the tailings management area of a mine site : predicted vs. actual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solylo, P.; Ramsey, D. [Wardrop Engineering, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Mining and Minerals Section

2009-07-01

This paper reported on a study at a cesium products facility (CPF) that manufactures a non-toxic cesium-formate drilling fluid. The facility operates adjacent to a pollucite/tantalum/spodumene mine. The CPF was developed as a closed system, with the residue tailings slurry from the CPF process discharged to doublelined containment cells. Groundwater monitoring has shown that leachate has affected near-surface porewater quality within the tailings management area (TMA). Elevated concentrations of calcium, sulphate, strontium, cesium, and rubidium were used to identify the leachate. Porewater at the base of the tailings and in the overburden beneath the tailings has not been affected. A geochemical investigation was initiated to determine how the leachate behaves in the groundwater/tailings porewater system. Over the past 7 years of residue placement in the TMA, the footprint of the residue placement area has changed, making the comparison of predicted versus actual rate of leachate migration very subjective and difficult to quantify. Based solely on the analytical data, the source of the leachate is unknown, either from the original residue pile or the 2007 residue placement area. For purposes of long term residue management, an investigation of the geochemical behaviour of residue leachate in the groundwater/tailings system of the TMA is currently underway. 5 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs.

Predicting the onset of major depression in subjects with subthreshold depression in primary care: A prospective study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cuijpers, P.; Smit, H.F.E.; Willemse, G.

2005-01-01

Objective: That subjects with subthreshold depression have an increased probability of developing major depression has been confirmed by many studies. However, the factors which may predict the onset of major depression have yet to be fully examined. Method: We examined the control group of a

Mountain Pine Beetles, Salvage Logging, and Hydrologic Change: Predicting Wet Ground Areas

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John Rex

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest land showing the potential for exceptionally large-scale disturbance to influence watershed hydrology. Pine stands killed by the epidemic can experience reduced levels of evapotranspiration and precipitation interception, which can translate into an increase in soil moisture as observed by some forest practitioners during salvage logging in the epicenter of the outbreak. They reported the replacement of summer ground, dry firm soil areas, with winter ground areas identified by having wetter, less firm soils upon which forestry equipment operation is difficult or impossible before winter freeze-up. To decrease the likelihood of soil disturbance from harvesting, a set of hazard indicators was developed to predict wet ground areas in areas heavily infested by the mountain pine beetle. Hazard indicators were based on available GIS data, aerial photographs, and local knowledge. Indicators were selected by an iterative process that began with office-based selection of potential indicators, model development and prediction, field verification, and model refinement to select those indicators that explained most field data variability. Findings indicate that the most effective indicators were lodgepole pine content, understory, drainage density, soil texture, and the topographic index.

Model of external exposure of population living in the areas subjected to radioactive contamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Golikov, V.Yu.; Balonov, M.I.

2002-01-01

In the paper, we formulated the general approach to assessment of external doses to population living in contaminated areas (the model equation and the set of parameters). The model parameters were assessed on the basis of results of monitoring in the environment, phantom experiments, and social and demographic information obtained on the contaminated areas. Verification of model assessments performed by comparison with measurement results of individual external doses in inhabitants within the thermoluminescent dosimetry method have shown that differences in dose assessments within both methods does not exceed 1.5 times at a confidence level of 95%. In the paper, we present the results illustrating specific features of external dose formation in population living in the areas of Russia subjected to radioactive contamination due to nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site, radioactive releases from the Mayak enterprise, and the Chernobyl accident. (author)

Blood biomonitoring of metals in subjects living near abandoned mining and active industrial areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Madeddu, Roberto; Tolu, Paola; Asara, Yolande; Farace, Cristiano; Forte, Giovanni; Bocca, Beatrice

2013-07-01

A human blood biomonitoring campaign to detect the environmental exposure to metals (Cd, Cu, Cr, Mn, Pb and Zn) in 265 subjects was performed in the South-Western part of Sardinia (an Italian island) that is a particular area with a great history of coal and metal mining (Pb/Zn mainly) activities and large industrial structures (as metallurgy). Subjects living near the industrial plant area had geometric means (GM) of blood Cd (0.79 μg/l), Cu (971 μg/l), Mn (12.2 μg/l), and Pb (55.7 μg/l) significantly higher than controls (Cd, 0.47 μg/l; Cu, 900 μg/l; Mn 9.98 μg/l; Pb, 26.5 μg/l) and than people living nearby the past mining sites. Subjects living next to one dismissed mine were statistically higher in blood Cu (GM, 1,022 μg/l) and Pb (GM, 41.4 μg/l) concentrations than controls. No differences were observed in people living in the different mining sites, and this might be related to the decennial disclosure of mines and the adoption of environmental remediation programmes. Some interindividual variables influenced blood biomonitoring data, as smoke and age for Cd, gender for Cu, age, sex and alcohol for Pb, and age for Zn. Moreover, blood metal levels of the whole population were similar to reference values representative of the Sardinian population and acceptably safe according to currently available health guidelines.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-10-27

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

The cutoff values of visceral fat area and waist circumference for identifying subjects at risk for metabolic syndrome in elderly Korean: Ansan Geriatric (AGE cohort study

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Koh Young

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In Korea, the cutoff values of waist circumference (WC for the identification of metabolic syndrome (MetS were suggested to be 90 cm for men and 85 cm for women based on the analysis mainly in middle-aged adults. As aging is associated with increased fat, especially abdominal visceral fat, the cutoff value of WC may differ according to age. In addition, the usefulness of visceral abdominal fat area (VFA to predict MetS in the elderly has not been studied yet. We aimed to suggest WC and VFA criteria and to compare the predictability of WC and VFA to identify people at risk for MetS. Methods A total of 689 elderly subjects aged ≥63 years (308 men, 381 women were chosen in this cross-sectional study from an ongoing, prospective, population-based study, the Ansan Geriatric (AGE cohort study. VFA was measured by single slice abdominal computed tomography scanning. The metabolic risk factors except WC (plasma glucose, blood pressure, serum triglycerides and HDL cholesterol levels were defined using modified NCEP-ATP III criteria. We estimated the accuracy of VFA and WC for identifying at least two of these factors by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis. Results Two hundred three of 308 men and 280 of 381 women had ≥2 metabolic risk factors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC value for VFA to predict the presence of ≥2 metabolic risk factors was not significantly different from that for WC (men, 0.735 and 0.750; women, 0.715 and 0.682; AUC values for VFA and WC, respectively. The optimal cutoff points for VFA and WC for predicting the presence of ≥2 metabolic risk factors were 92.6 cm2 and 86.5 cm for men and 88.9 cm2 and 86.5 cm for women. Conclusion WC had comparable power with VFA to identify elderly people who are at risk for MetS. Elderly Korean men and women had very similar cutoff points for both VFA and WC measurements for estimating the risk of MetS. Age-specific cutoff point for WC might be

Extensions of Island Biogeography Theory predict the scaling of functional trait composition with habitat area and isolation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacquet, Claire; Mouillot, David; Kulbicki, Michel; Gravel, Dominique

2017-02-01

The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species-area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body-size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large-sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body-size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Predictive maintenance policy for a gradually deteriorating system subject to stress

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deloux, E. [IRCCyN/Ecole des Mines de Nantes, Nantes (France); Castanier, B. [IRCCyN/Ecole des Mines de Nantes, Nantes (France)], E-mail: bruno.castanier@emn.fr; Berenguer, C. [Universite de Technologie de Troyes/CNRS, Troyes (France)

2009-02-15

This paper deals with a predictive maintenance policy for a continuously deteriorating system subject to stress. We consider a system with two failure mechanisms which are, respectively, due to an excessive deterioration level and a shock. To optimize the maintenance policy of the system, an approach combining statistical process control (SPC) and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is proposed. CBM policy is used to inspect and replace the system according to the observed deterioration level. SPC is used to monitor the stress covariate. In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long-run expected maintenance cost per unit of time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived. Analysis based on numerical results are conducted to highlight the properties of the proposed maintenance policy in respect to the different maintenance parameters.

Predictive maintenance policy for a gradually deteriorating system subject to stress

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deloux, E.; Castanier, B.; Berenguer, C.

2009-01-01

This paper deals with a predictive maintenance policy for a continuously deteriorating system subject to stress. We consider a system with two failure mechanisms which are, respectively, due to an excessive deterioration level and a shock. To optimize the maintenance policy of the system, an approach combining statistical process control (SPC) and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is proposed. CBM policy is used to inspect and replace the system according to the observed deterioration level. SPC is used to monitor the stress covariate. In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long-run expected maintenance cost per unit of time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived. Analysis based on numerical results are conducted to highlight the properties of the proposed maintenance policy in respect to the different maintenance parameters

Predicting changes in posttraumatic growth and subjective well-being among breast cancer survivors: the role of social support and stress.

Science.gov (United States)

McDonough, Meghan H; Sabiston, Catherine M; Wrosch, Carsten

2014-01-01

Social support is theoretically expected to be positively associated with posttraumatic growth (PTG) and subjective well-being, and stress is expected to be positively associated with PTG and negatively associated with subjective well-being among breast cancer (BC) survivors. However, empirical evidence is mixed, predominantly cross-sectional, and few studies have examined the unique effects of these predictors on positive changes in psychological experiences post cancer diagnosis and systemic treatment. This study examined both general and BC-specific social support and stress as predictors of change in PTG and subjective well-being among BC survivors. Women (N = 173, Mage  = 55.40, SD = 10.99) who had recently finished treatment completed demographic and treatment measures at baseline (T1); general and cancer-specific social support and stress, PTG and subjective well-being at 3 months (T2); and PTG and subjective well-being again at 6 months (T3). Longitudinal predictors of change in PTG and subjective well-being were examined using hierarchical multiple regression. The BC-specific social support (β = .12) and stress (cancer worry; β = .10) predicted increasing levels of PTG. Improvements in subjective well-being were predicted by higher levels of general social support (β = .21) and lower levels of general stress (β = -.59). There are distinct predictors of change in PTG and subjective well-being among BC survivors, supporting the distinction between the trauma-specific process of PTG and well-being. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development of a software for predicting the effects of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo Lijuan; Chen Bo; Zhuo Weihai; Lu Shuyu

2011-01-01

Objective: To develop a new software system that can directly display the predicted results on an electronic map, in order to get a directly perceived understanding of the affected areas of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas. Methods: Three scenarios of events including spreading radioactive materials, dirty bomb attack, and explosion or arson attacks on the radiation facilities were assumed. Gaussian diffusion model was employed to predict the spread and deposition of radioactive pollutants, and both the internal and external doses were estimated for the representative person by using the corresponding dose conversion factors. Through integration of the computing system and Mapinfo geographic information system (GIS), the predicted results were visually displayed on the electronic maps of a city. Results: The new software system could visually display the predicted results on the electronic map of a city, and the predicted results were consistent with those calculated by the similar software Hotspot®. The deviation between this system and Hotspot was less than 0.2 km for predicted isoplethic curves of dose rate downwind. Conclusions: The newly developed software system is of the practical value in predicting the effects of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas. (authors)

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF COMPOSITE BEAM SUBJECTED TO COMBINED NEGATIVE BENDING AND AXIAL TENSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MAHESAN BAVAN

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The present study has investigated the finite element method (FEM techniques of composite beam subjected to combined axial tension and negative bending. The negative bending regions of composite beams are influenced by worsen failures due to various levels of axial tensile loads on steel section especially in the regions near internal supports. Three dimensional solid FEM model was developed to accurately predict the unfavourable phenomenon of cracking of concrete and compression of steel in the negative bending regions of composite beam due to axial tensile loads. The prediction of quasi-static solution was extensively analysed with various deformation speeds and energy stabilities. The FEM model was then validated with existing experimental data. Reasonable agreements were observed between the results of FEM model and experimental analysis in the combination of vertical-axial forces and failure modes on ultimate limit state behaviour. The local failure modes known as shear studs failure, excess yielding on steel beam and crushing on concrete were completely verified by extensive similarity between the numerical and experimental results. Finally, a proper way of modelling techniques for large FEM models by considering uncertainties of material behaviour due to biaxial loadings and complex contact interactions is discussed. Further, the model is suggested for the limit state prediction of composite beam with calibrating necessary degree of the combined axial loads.

The predictive value of self-rated health in the presence of subjective memory complaints on permanent nursing home placement in elderly primary care patients over 4-year follow-up

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Anni Brit Sternhagen; Siersma, Volkert Dirk; Waldemar, Gunhild

2013-01-01

self-rated health (SRH) predicts nursing home (NH) placement; subjective memory complaints (SMC) too. However, the predictive value of SRH in the presence of SMC is unclear.......self-rated health (SRH) predicts nursing home (NH) placement; subjective memory complaints (SMC) too. However, the predictive value of SRH in the presence of SMC is unclear....

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

Science.gov (United States)

Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

2015-01-01

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This report documents the outcome of the assessment.

Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

Science.gov (United States)

Gutierrez, F.; Cooper, A.H.; Johnson, K.S.

2008-01-01

Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility and, commonly, a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes may help in investigating dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs, and swallow holes are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database-the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment, and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of

Allometric relationships predicting foliar biomass and leaf area:sapwood area ratio from tree height in five Costa Rican rain forest species.

Science.gov (United States)

Calvo-Alvarado, J C; McDowell, N G; Waring, R H

2008-11-01

We developed allometric equations to predict whole-tree leaf area (A(l)), leaf biomass (M(l)) and leaf area to sapwood area ratio (A(l):A(s)) in five rain forest tree species of Costa Rica: Pentaclethra macroloba (Willd.) Kuntze (Fabaceae/Mim), Carapa guianensis Aubl. (Meliaceae), Vochysia ferru-gi-nea Mart. (Vochysiaceae), Virola koshnii Warb. (Myristicaceae) and Tetragastris panamensis (Engl.) Kuntze (Burseraceae). By destructive analyses (n = 11-14 trees per species), we observed strong nonlinear allometric relationships (r(2) > or = 0.9) for predicting A(l) or M(l) from stem diameters or A(s) measured at breast height. Linear relationships were less accurate. In general, A(l):A(s) at breast height increased linearly with tree height except for Penta-clethra, which showed a negative trend. All species, however, showed increased total A(l) with height. The observation that four of the five species increased in A(l):A(s) with height is consistent with hypotheses about trade--offs between morphological and anatomical adaptations that favor efficient water flow through variation in the amount of leaf area supported by sapwood and those imposed by the need to respond quickly to light gaps in the canopy.

Differences in Activation Area Within Brodmann Area 2 Caused by Pressure Stimuli on Fingers and Joints: In Case of Male Subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Mi-Hyun; Kim, Hyung-Sik; Baek, Ji-Hye; Lee, Jung-Chul; Park, Sung-Jun; Jeong, Ul-Ho; Gim, Seon-Young; Kim, Sung-Phil; Lim, Dae-Woon; Chung, Soon-Cheol

2015-09-01

In this study, a constant pressure stimulus was applied on the 3 joints (first [p1], second [p2], and third [p3] joints) of 4 fingers (index, middle, ring, and little fingers), and the activation areas within Brodmann area 2 (BA 2) were compared for these different fingers and joints by using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Eight healthy male college students (25.4 ± 1.32 years) participated in the study. Each session was composed of 3 blocks, and each block was composed of a Control phase (30 seconds) and a Pressure phase (30 seconds). No pressure stimulus was applied in the Control phase, during which the subjects would simply lay comfortably with their eyes closed. In the Pressure phase, a pressure stimulus was applied onto one of the joints of the selected finger. For each finger and joint, BA 2 areas activated by the pressure stimulus were extracted by the region of interest method. There was a significant difference in the activation areas for the different fingers (P = .042) as well as for the different joints (P = .050). The activation area decreased in the order of the little, index, and middle fingers, as well as in the order of p1, p3, and p2.

TH-CD-207A-07: Prediction of High Dimensional State Subject to Respiratory Motion: A Manifold Learning Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, W; Sawant, A; Ruan, D

2016-01-01

Purpose: The development of high dimensional imaging systems (e.g. volumetric MRI, CBCT, photogrammetry systems) in image-guided radiotherapy provides important pathways to the ultimate goal of real-time volumetric/surface motion monitoring. This study aims to develop a prediction method for the high dimensional state subject to respiratory motion. Compared to conventional linear dimension reduction based approaches, our method utilizes manifold learning to construct a descriptive feature submanifold, where more efficient and accurate prediction can be performed. Methods: We developed a prediction framework for high-dimensional state subject to respiratory motion. The proposed method performs dimension reduction in a nonlinear setting to permit more descriptive features compared to its linear counterparts (e.g., classic PCA). Specifically, a kernel PCA is used to construct a proper low-dimensional feature manifold, where low-dimensional prediction is performed. A fixed-point iterative pre-image estimation method is applied subsequently to recover the predicted value in the original state space. We evaluated and compared the proposed method with PCA-based method on 200 level-set surfaces reconstructed from surface point clouds captured by the VisionRT system. The prediction accuracy was evaluated with respect to root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) for both 200ms and 600ms lookahead lengths. Results: The proposed method outperformed PCA-based approach with statistically higher prediction accuracy. In one-dimensional feature subspace, our method achieved mean prediction accuracy of 0.86mm and 0.89mm for 200ms and 600ms lookahead lengths respectively, compared to 0.95mm and 1.04mm from PCA-based method. The paired t-tests further demonstrated the statistical significance of the superiority of our method, with p-values of 6.33e-3 and 5.78e-5, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed approach benefits from the descriptiveness of a nonlinear manifold and the prediction

Regional Cultures and the Psychological Geography of Switzerland: Person-Environment-Fit in Personality Predicts Subjective Wellbeing.

Science.gov (United States)

Götz, Friedrich M; Ebert, Tobias; Rentfrow, Peter J

2018-01-01

The present study extended traditional nation-based research on person-culture-fit to the regional level. First, we examined the geographical distribution of Big Five personality traits in Switzerland. Across the 26 Swiss cantons, unique patterns were observed for all traits. For Extraversion and Neuroticism clear language divides emerged between the French- and Italian-speaking South-West vs. the German-speaking North-East. Second, multilevel modeling demonstrated that person-environment-fit in Big Five, composed of elevation (i.e., mean differences between individual profile and cantonal profile), scatter (differences in mean variances) and shape (Pearson correlations between individual and cantonal profiles across all traits; Furr, 2008, 2010), predicted the development of subjective wellbeing (i.e., life satisfaction, satisfaction with personal relationships, positive affect, negative affect) over a period of 4 years. Unexpectedly, while the effects of shape were in line with the person-environment-fit hypothesis (better fit predicted higher subjective wellbeing), the effects of scatter showed the opposite pattern, while null findings were observed for elevation. Across a series of robustness checks, the patterns for shape and elevation were consistently replicated. While that was mostly the case for scatter as well, the effects of scatter appeared to be somewhat less robust and more sensitive to the specific way fit was modeled when predicting certain outcomes (negative affect, positive affect). Distinguishing between supplementary and complementary fit may help to reconcile these findings and future research should explore whether and if so under which conditions these concepts may be applicable to the respective facets of person-culture-fit.

Regional Cultures and the Psychological Geography of Switzerland: Person–Environment–Fit in Personality Predicts Subjective Wellbeing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Friedrich M. Götz

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The present study extended traditional nation-based research on person–culture–fit to the regional level. First, we examined the geographical distribution of Big Five personality traits in Switzerland. Across the 26 Swiss cantons, unique patterns were observed for all traits. For Extraversion and Neuroticism clear language divides emerged between the French- and Italian-speaking South-West vs. the German-speaking North-East. Second, multilevel modeling demonstrated that person–environment–fit in Big Five, composed of elevation (i.e., mean differences between individual profile and cantonal profile, scatter (differences in mean variances and shape (Pearson correlations between individual and cantonal profiles across all traits; Furr, 2008, 2010, predicted the development of subjective wellbeing (i.e., life satisfaction, satisfaction with personal relationships, positive affect, negative affect over a period of 4 years. Unexpectedly, while the effects of shape were in line with the person–environment–fit hypothesis (better fit predicted higher subjective wellbeing, the effects of scatter showed the opposite pattern, while null findings were observed for elevation. Across a series of robustness checks, the patterns for shape and elevation were consistently replicated. While that was mostly the case for scatter as well, the effects of scatter appeared to be somewhat less robust and more sensitive to the specific way fit was modeled when predicting certain outcomes (negative affect, positive affect. Distinguishing between supplementary and complementary fit may help to reconcile these findings and future research should explore whether and if so under which conditions these concepts may be applicable to the respective facets of person–culture–fit.

Regional Cultures and the Psychological Geography of Switzerland: Person–Environment–Fit in Personality Predicts Subjective Wellbeing

Science.gov (United States)

Götz, Friedrich M.; Ebert, Tobias; Rentfrow, Peter J.

2018-01-01

The present study extended traditional nation-based research on person–culture–fit to the regional level. First, we examined the geographical distribution of Big Five personality traits in Switzerland. Across the 26 Swiss cantons, unique patterns were observed for all traits. For Extraversion and Neuroticism clear language divides emerged between the French- and Italian-speaking South-West vs. the German-speaking North-East. Second, multilevel modeling demonstrated that person–environment–fit in Big Five, composed of elevation (i.e., mean differences between individual profile and cantonal profile), scatter (differences in mean variances) and shape (Pearson correlations between individual and cantonal profiles across all traits; Furr, 2008, 2010), predicted the development of subjective wellbeing (i.e., life satisfaction, satisfaction with personal relationships, positive affect, negative affect) over a period of 4 years. Unexpectedly, while the effects of shape were in line with the person–environment–fit hypothesis (better fit predicted higher subjective wellbeing), the effects of scatter showed the opposite pattern, while null findings were observed for elevation. Across a series of robustness checks, the patterns for shape and elevation were consistently replicated. While that was mostly the case for scatter as well, the effects of scatter appeared to be somewhat less robust and more sensitive to the specific way fit was modeled when predicting certain outcomes (negative affect, positive affect). Distinguishing between supplementary and complementary fit may help to reconcile these findings and future research should explore whether and if so under which conditions these concepts may be applicable to the respective facets of person–culture–fit. PMID:29713299

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yinghui Li

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”. However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1 model, and build a new GM (1,1 model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1 model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

2017-01-01

The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006

Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

2017-07-01

We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

Functional connectivity between somatosensory and motor brain areas predicts individual differences in motor learning by observing.

Science.gov (United States)

McGregor, Heather R; Gribble, Paul L

2017-08-01

Action observation can facilitate the acquisition of novel motor skills; however, there is considerable individual variability in the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. Here we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in brain function or structure can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Subjects underwent an anatomical MRI scan and resting-state fMRI scans to assess preobservation gray matter volume and preobservation resting-state functional connectivity (FC), respectively. On the following day, subjects observed a video of a tutor adapting her reaches to a novel force field. After observation, subjects performed reaches in a force field as a behavioral assessment of gains in motor learning resulting from observation. We found that individual differences in resting-state FC, but not gray matter volume, predicted postobservation gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state FC between left primary somatosensory cortex and bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and primary somatosensory cortex and left superior parietal lobule was positively correlated with behavioral measures of postobservation motor learning. Sensory-motor resting-state FC can thus predict the extent to which observation will promote subsequent motor learning. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that individual differences in preobservation brain function can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state functional connectivity within a sensory-motor network may be used as a biomarker for the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. This kind of information may be useful if observation is to be used as a way to boost neuroplasticity and sensory-motor recovery for patients undergoing rehabilitation for diseases that impair movement such as stroke. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

2017-05-01

To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio 1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time 220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

SUBJECTIVE MEMORY IN OLDER AFRICAN AMERICANS

OpenAIRE

Sims, Regina C.; Whitfield, Keith E.; Ayotte, Brian J.; Gamaldo, Alyssa A.; Edwards, Christopher L.; Allaire, Jason C.

2011-01-01

The current analysis examined (a) if measures of psychological well-being predict subjective memory, and (b) if subjective memory is consistent with actual memory. Five hundred seventy-nine older African Americans from the Baltimore Study of Black Aging completed measures assessing subjective memory, depressive symptomatology, perceived stress, locus of control, and verbal and working memory. Higher levels of perceived stress and greater externalized locus of control predicted poorer subjecti...

Prediction of basal metabolic rate in overweight/obese and non-obese subjects and its relation to pulmonary function tests.

Science.gov (United States)

Merghani, Tarig H; Alawad, Azza O; Ibrahim, Rihab M; Abdelmoniem, Asim M

2015-08-15

Few studies investigated the association between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and indicators of pulmonary function. This study was conducted to estimate BMR in overweight/obese and non-obese healthy subjects using four commonly used predictive equations and to investigate its relation to the indicators of lung function tests (LFT). A cross sectional study was conducted in Tabuk University, Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. A total of 201 students (98 males and 103 females) participated in the study. Four different values of BMR were calculated for each participant using four different predictive equations (Harris-Benedict, Mifflin, FAO/WHO/UNU and Henry-Rees). A portable All-flow spirometer (Clement Clarke International, Harlow, UK) was used for measurements of LFT. Significantly higher values of spirometric indicators (p BMR values predicted with the four equations were significantly higher in the males compared to the females and among the overweight/obese compared to the non-obese subjects (p BMR values and the indicators of LFT was statistically insignificant (p > 0.05). Mean values of LFT indicators are not related to the estimated values of BMR. A practical calculation of BMR based on direct measurement of oxygen consumption is recommended to confirm the absence of this association.

Usefulness of radionuclide angiocardiography in predicting stenotic mitral orifice area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, R.J.; Armitage, D.L.; Fountas, P.N.; Tremblay, P.C.; Druck, M.N.

1986-01-01

Fifteen patients with pure mitral stenosis (MS) underwent high-temporal-resolution radionuclide angiocardiography for calculation of the ratio of peak left ventricular (LV) filling rate divided by mean LV filling rate (filling ratio). Whereas LV filling normally occurs in 3 phases, in MS it is more uniform. Thus, in 13 patients the filling ratio was below the normal range of 2.21 to 2.88 (p less than 0.001). In 11 patients in atrial fibrillation, filling ratio divided by mean cardiac cycle length and by LV ejection fraction provided good correlation (r = 0.85) with modified Gorlin formula derived mitral area and excellent correlation with echocardiographic mitral area (r = 0.95). Significant MS can be detected using radionuclide angiocardiography to calculate filling ratio. In the absence of the confounding influence of atrial systole calculation of 0.14 (filling ratio divided by cardiac cycle length divided by LV ejection fraction) + 0.40 cm2 enables accurate prediction of mitral area (+/- 4%). Our data support the contention that the modified Gorlin formula, based on steady-state hemodynamics, provides less certain estimates of mitral area for patients with MS and atrial fibrillation, in whom echocardiography and radionuclide angiocardiography may be more accurate

[Vitamin D deficiency prediction by patient questionnaire and secondary hyperparathyroidism in a cohort of 526 healthy subjects in their fifties].

Science.gov (United States)

Laroche, Michel; Nigon, Delphine; Gennero, Isabelle; Lassoued, Slim; Pouilles, Jean-Michel; Trémolières, Florence; Vallet, Marion; Tack, Ivan

2015-01-01

Can vitamin D deficiency be predicted by patient questionnaire? Does it lead to secondary hyperparathyroidism that may cause excessive bone resorption? We studied non-osteoporotic subjects in their fifties, in whom vitamin D levels are often tested. Patients hospitalised for degenerative osteoarthritis or consulting for assessment of menopause, without renal failure and not treated with vitamin D, completed a questionnaire on sun exposure and underwent measurement of serum calcium, creatinine, 25OH vitamin D, PTH and CTX. Five hundred and twenty-six subjects, mean age 54.6 years (71% women), were investigated throughout the year. 25OH vitamin D levels were correlated with sun exposure and varied according to the month of the year, unlike PTH and CTX levels. From November to May, over 90% of subjects had 25OH vitamin D levelssecondary hyperparathyroidism, characterised by serum calcium65pg/mL, associated with increased CTX levels. Vitamin D deficiency can be predicted by patient questionnaire. It very rarely leads to secondary hyperparathyroidism. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Analytical and subjective interpretation of thermal comfort in hospitals: A case study in two sterilization services.

Science.gov (United States)

Carvalhais, Carlos; Santos, Joana; Vieira da Silva, Manuela

2016-01-01

Hospital facilities are normally very complex, which combined with patient requirements promote conditions for potential development of uncomfortable working conditions. Thermal discomfort is one such example. This study aimed to determine levels of thermal comfort, sensations, and preferences, from a field investigation conducted in two sterilization services (SS) of two hospitals from Porto and Aveiro, Portugal. The analytical determination and interpretation of thermal comfort was based upon assumptions of ISO 7726:1998 and ISO 7730:2005. The predicted mean vote (PMV) and predicted percentage of dissatisfaction (PPD) indices were obtained by measurement and estimation of environmental and personal variables, respectively, and calculated according to ISO 7730 equations. The subjective variables were obtained from thermal sensation (subjective PMV) and affective assessment (subjective PPD), reported by a questionnaire based upon ISO 10551:1995. Both approaches confirmed thermal discomfort in both SS (codified as SS1 and SS2). For all areas, PMV and PPD exceeded in all periods of the day the recommended range of -0.5 to +0.5 and thermal discomfort. There were no significant differences between PMV and thermal sensations, as well as between PPD and affective assessment. The PMV/PPD model was found suitable to predict thermal sensations of occupants in hospital SS located in areas with a mild climate in Portugal.

The importance of subjective facial appearance on the ability of anesthesiologists to predict difficult intubation.

Science.gov (United States)

Connor, Christopher W; Segal, Scott

2014-02-01

Previously we demonstrated that a computer algorithm based on bedside airway examinations and facial photographs accurately classified easy and difficult airways. The extent of the ability of anesthesiologists to perform the same task is unknown. We hypothesized that providing photographs would add to the predictive ability of anesthesiologists over that achieved when provided only with the Mallampati (MP) score and the thyromental distance (TMD). We further hypothesized that human observers would implicitly bias their predictions toward more sensitive determination of difficult airways, rather than more specific determination of easy airways. Residents, fellows, and attending anesthesiologists with varying levels of experience (N = 160) were presented with MP and TMD information from 80 Caucasian men subjects. The same subjects' data, accompanied by 3 facial photographs in head-on and right and left profiles, were also presented. Anesthesiologists classified the airways as easy or difficult according to specified criteria ("easy" defined as a single attempt with a Macintosh 3 blade resulting in a grade 1 laryngoscopic view; "difficult" defined as >1 attempt by an operator with at least 12 months anesthesia experience, grade 3 or 4 laryngoscopic view, need for a second operator, or nonelective use of an alternative airway device). Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated for each anesthesiologist. We further developed a cost function to quantify a relative bias toward avoiding an unexpectedly difficult intubation versus overpreparing for an easy intubation. One hundred sixty respondents completed the study. Presenting photographs improved respondents' sensitivity and accuracy in classifying airways, though specificity decreased slightly. Overall accuracy when given photographs was 61.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.8%-62.4%), which was significantly lower than the computer's performance of 87.5% (t test, P interval, 4.9:1-8.4:1). Anesthesiologists can

MEG reveals a fast pathway from somatosensory cortex to occipital areas via posterior parietal cortex in a blind subject.

Science.gov (United States)

Ioannides, Andreas A; Liu, Lichan; Poghosyan, Vahe; Saridis, George A; Gjedde, Albert; Ptito, Maurice; Kupers, Ron

2013-01-01

Cross-modal activity in visual cortex of blind subjects has been reported during performance of variety of non-visual tasks. A key unanswered question is through which pathways non-visual inputs are funneled to the visual cortex. Here we used tomographic analysis of single trial magnetoencephalography (MEG) data recorded from one congenitally blind and two sighted subjects after stimulation of the left and right median nerves at three intensities: below sensory threshold, above sensory threshold and above motor threshold; the last sufficient to produce thumb twitching. We identified reproducible brain responses in the primary somatosensory (S1) and motor (M1) cortices at around 20 ms post-stimulus, which were very similar in sighted and blind subjects. Time-frequency analysis revealed strong 45-70 Hz activity at latencies of 20-50 ms in S1 and M1, and posterior parietal cortex Brodmann areas (BA) 7 and 40, which compared to lower frequencies, were substantially more pronounced in the blind than the sighted subjects. Critically, at frequencies from α-band up to 100 Hz we found clear, strong, and widespread responses in the visual cortex of the blind subject, which increased with the intensity of the somatosensory stimuli. Time-delayed mutual information (MI) revealed that in blind subject the stimulus information is funneled from the early somatosensory to visual cortex through posterior parietal BA 7 and 40, projecting first to visual areas V5 and V3, and eventually V1. The flow of information through this pathway occurred in stages characterized by convergence of activations into specific cortical regions. In sighted subjects, no linked activity was found that led from the somatosensory to the visual cortex through any of the studied brain regions. These results provide the first evidence from MEG that in blind subjects, tactile information is routed from primary somatosensory to occipital cortex via the posterior parietal cortex.

A longitudinal study: changes in cortical thickness and surface area during pubertal maturation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Megan M Herting

Full Text Available Sex hormones have been shown to contribute to the organization and function of the brain during puberty and adolescence. Moreover, it has been suggested that distinct hormone changes in girls versus boys may contribute to the emergence of sex differences in internalizing and externalizing behavior during adolescence. In the current longitudinal study, the influence of within-subject changes in puberty (physical and hormonal on cortical thickness and surface area was examined across a 2-year span, while controlling for age. Greater increases in Tanner Stage predicted less superior frontal thinning and decreases in precuneus surface area in both sexes. Significant Tanner Stage and sex interactions were also seen, with less right superior temporal thinning in girls but not boys, as well as greater decreases in the right bank of the superior temporal sulcus surface area in boys compared to girls. In addition, within-subject changes in testosterone over the 2-year follow-up period were found to relate to decreases in middle superior frontal surface area in boys, but increases in surface area in girls. Lastly, larger increases in estradiol in girls predicted greater middle temporal lobe thinning. These results show that within-subject physical and hormonal markers of puberty relate to region and sex-specific changes in cortical development across adolescence.

A longitudinal study: changes in cortical thickness and surface area during pubertal maturation.

Science.gov (United States)

Herting, Megan M; Gautam, Prapti; Spielberg, Jeffrey M; Dahl, Ronald E; Sowell, Elizabeth R

2015-01-01

Sex hormones have been shown to contribute to the organization and function of the brain during puberty and adolescence. Moreover, it has been suggested that distinct hormone changes in girls versus boys may contribute to the emergence of sex differences in internalizing and externalizing behavior during adolescence. In the current longitudinal study, the influence of within-subject changes in puberty (physical and hormonal) on cortical thickness and surface area was examined across a 2-year span, while controlling for age. Greater increases in Tanner Stage predicted less superior frontal thinning and decreases in precuneus surface area in both sexes. Significant Tanner Stage and sex interactions were also seen, with less right superior temporal thinning in girls but not boys, as well as greater decreases in the right bank of the superior temporal sulcus surface area in boys compared to girls. In addition, within-subject changes in testosterone over the 2-year follow-up period were found to relate to decreases in middle superior frontal surface area in boys, but increases in surface area in girls. Lastly, larger increases in estradiol in girls predicted greater middle temporal lobe thinning. These results show that within-subject physical and hormonal markers of puberty relate to region and sex-specific changes in cortical development across adolescence.

Evaluating the utility of subjective effects measures for predicting product sampling, enrollment, and retention in a clinical trial of a smokeless tobacco product.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Richard J; Lindgren, Bruce R; Schneller, Liane M; Shields, Peter G; Hatsukami, Dorothy K

2018-01-01

Subjective effects of drugs, representing pharmacological and non-pharmacological effects, have been shown to be associated with future use and abuse. This also is the case for tobacco products and so measuring subjective effects, such as liking, satisfaction, and aversion, is crucial to gaining an understanding of consumer perception leading to increased use. This study examined the predictive validity of subjective drug and product effects with respect to product adoption. Smokers (N=151) were enrolled in Minneapolis, Columbus, and Buffalo. Participants were shown two snus products (Camel Snus Winterchill and Robust), asked to try each of the products for 5min and to rate them using the Product Evaluation Scale (PES) and Drug Effects Questionnaire (DEQ). This was followed by a one-week use period of their preferred product and those who used at least 1 unit of Camel Snus per day (or at least 7 pouches total) were eligible to enroll in the Clinical Trial Phase assessing the impact of complete switching or dual use with smoking. Key outcomes for this study were product evaluation, extent of product use, and Clinical Trial enrollment. We noted no relationships between participant characteristics such as gender, age, prior smokeless use, baseline cigarettes per day (CPD), or PES and DEQ scores with any of these outcome variables. Subjective effects were weak predictors of product use, which totaled approximately 3units of snus per day. Regardless of product, it appears that PES and DEQ ratings were uniformly poor predictors of trial enrollment and retention, though they do predict the amount of snus used during the sampling phase. Findings indicate that while subjective effects predict product preference in the short-term, they did not consistently predict extent of use or enrollment in the trial, suggesting that these initial measures have limited implications for long-term behavior. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predictive Clinical Parameters and Glycemic Efficacy of Vildagliptin Treatment in Korean Subjects with Type 2 Diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin-Sun Chang

2013-02-01

Full Text Available BackgroundThe aims of this study are to investigate the glycemic efficacy and predictive parameters of vildagliptin therapy in Korean subjects with type 2 diabetes.MethodsIn this retrospective study, we retrieved data for subjects who were on twice-daily 50 mg vildagliptin for at least 6 months, and classified the subjects into five treatment groups. In three of the groups, we added vildagliptin to their existing medication regimen; in the other two groups, we replaced one of their existing medications with vildagliptin. We then analyzed the changes in glucose parameters and clinical characteristics.ResultsUltimately, 327 subjects were analyzed in this study. Vildagliptin significantly improved hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c levels over 6 months. The changes in HbA1c levels (ΔHbA1c at month 6 were -2.24% (P=0.000, -0.77% (P=0.000, -0.80% (P=0.001, -0.61% (P=0.000, and -0.34% (P=0.025 for groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively, with significance. We also found significant decrements in fasting plasma glucose levels in groups 1, 2, 3, and 4 (P<0.05. Of the variables, initial HbA1c levels (P=0.032 and history of sulfonylurea use (P=0.026 were independently associated with responsiveness to vildagliptin treatment.ConclusionVildagliptin was effective when it was used in subjects with poor glycemic control. It controlled fasting plasma glucose levels as well as sulfonylurea treatment in Korean type 2 diabetic subjects.

SYSTEM-COGNITIVE MODEL OF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIVERSIFIED AGRO-INDUSTRIAL CORPORATIONS. PART I. COGNITIVE STRUCTURING AND FORMALIZATION OF THE SUBJECT AREA

OpenAIRE

Lutsenko Y. V.; Loyko V. I.; Baranovskaya T. P.; Makarevich O. A.

2015-01-01

In this article, in accordance with the methodology of the Automated system-cognitive analysis (ASCanalysis), we examine the implementation of the 1st and 2nd stages of ASC-analysis: cognitive structuring and formalization of the subject area. At the stage of cognitive structurization of subject area, researchers decide what to consider as the object of modeling, the factors affecting it and the results of their actions. In accordance with the results of the cognitive structurization, we prep...

Prediction of Cognitive Performance and Subjective Sleepiness Using a Model of Arousal Dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Postnova, Svetlana; Lockley, Steven W; Robinson, Peter A

2018-04-01

A model of arousal dynamics is applied to predict objective performance and subjective sleepiness measures, including lapses and reaction time on a visual Performance Vigilance Test (vPVT), performance on a mathematical addition task (ADD), and the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). The arousal dynamics model is comprised of a physiologically based flip-flop switch between the wake- and sleep-active neuronal populations and a dynamic circadian oscillator, thus allowing prediction of sleep propensity. Published group-level experimental constant routine (CR) and forced desynchrony (FD) data are used to calibrate the model to predict performance and sleepiness. Only the studies using dim light (performance measures during CR and FD protocols, with sleep-wake cycles ranging from 20 to 42.85 h and a 2:1 wake-to-sleep ratio. New metrics relating model outputs to performance and sleepiness data are developed and tested against group average outcomes from 7 (vPVT lapses), 5 (ADD), and 8 (KSS) experimental protocols, showing good quantitative and qualitative agreement with the data (root mean squared error of 0.38, 0.19, and 0.35, respectively). The weights of the homeostatic and circadian effects are found to be different between the measures, with KSS having stronger homeostatic influence compared with the objective measures of performance. Using FD data in addition to CR data allows us to challenge the model in conditions of both acute sleep deprivation and structured circadian misalignment, ensuring that the role of the circadian and homeostatic drives in performance is properly captured.

Environmental protection foliar fertilization in areas subject to limitation of fertilizers use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gavriluta, I.; Alexandrescu, A; Budoi, G.; Bireescu, L.; Bireescu, G.

1999-01-01

Significant increases of plant productivity have been recorded in field experiments conducted between 1991 - 1994 using general purpose complex foliar fertilizers as well as aminoacid containing complex foliar fertilizers. These increases at the same time had positive environmental effects against chemical pollution, especially with nitrates. As a rule, the greater the degree of nutrient efficiency, especially of nitrate, the lower are the losses, which are subject to transfer to the environment. So in the light of environmental protection against chemical pollution using foliar fertilization is certainly beneficial for crops and for all other components of the agricultural environment giving rise to its significant improvement. Both, foliar and soil fertilization in areas with limitation of fertilizer use should be carried out under a continuous and strict analytical check of plant, soil and water. Refs. 14 (author)

Prediction of thermal and mechanical stress-strain responses of TMC's subjected to complex TMF histories

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, W. S.; Mirdamadi, M.

1994-01-01

This paper presents an experimental and analytical evaluation of cross-plied laminates of Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn (Ti-15-3) matrix reinforced with continuous silicon-carbide fibers (SCS-6) subjected to a complex TMF loading profile. Thermomechanical fatigue test techniques were developed to conduct a simulation of a generic hypersonic flight profile. A micromechanical analysis was used. The analysis predicts the stress-strain response of the laminate and of the constituents in each ply during thermal and mechanical cycling by using only constituent properties as input. The fiber was modeled as elastic with transverse orthotropic and temperature-dependent properties. The matrix was modeled using a thermoviscoplastic constitutive relation. The fiber transverse modulus was reduced in the analysis to simulate the fiber-matrix interface failures. Excellent correlation was found between measured and predicted laminate stress-strain response due to generic hypersonic flight profile when fiber debonding was modeled.

An Adaptive Model Predictive Load Frequency Control Method for Multi-Area Interconnected Power Systems with Photovoltaic Generations

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Guo-Qiang Zeng

2017-11-01

Full Text Available As the penetration level of renewable distributed generations such as wind turbine generator and photovoltaic stations increases, the load frequency control issue of a multi-area interconnected power system becomes more challenging. This paper presents an adaptive model predictive load frequency control method for a multi-area interconnected power system with photovoltaic generation by considering some nonlinear features such as a dead band for governor and generation rate constraint for steam turbine. The dynamic characteristic of this system is formulated as a discrete-time state space model firstly. Then, the predictive dynamic model is obtained by introducing an expanded state vector, and rolling optimization of control signal is implemented based on a cost function by minimizing the weighted sum of square predicted errors and square future control values. The simulation results on a typical two-area power system consisting of photovoltaic and thermal generator have demonstrated the superiority of the proposed model predictive control method to these state-of-the-art control techniques such as firefly algorithm, genetic algorithm, and population extremal optimization-based proportional-integral control methods in cases of normal conditions, load disturbance and parameters uncertainty.

Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

2010-01-01

Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

Predicted tyre-soil interface area and vertical stress distribution based on loading characteristics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjønning, Per; Stettler, M.; Keller, Thomas

2015-01-01

The upper boundary condition for all models simulating stress patterns throughout the soil profile is the stress distribution at the tyre–soil interface. The so-called FRIDA model (Schjønning et al., 2008. Biosyst. Eng. 99, 119–133) treats the contact area as a superellipse and has been shown...... of the actual to recommended inflation pressure ratio. We found that VT and Kr accounted for nearly all variation in the data with respect to the contact area. The contact area width was accurately described by a combination of tyre width and Kr, while the superellipse squareness parameter, n, diminished...... slightly with increasing Kr. Estimated values of the contact area length related to observed data with a standard deviation of about 0.06 m. A difference between traction and implement tyres called for separate prediction equations, especially for the contact area. The FRIDA parameters α and β, reflecting...

Refractive error study in young subjects: results from a rural area in Paraguay

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Isabel Signes-Soler

2017-03-01

Full Text Available AIM: To evaluate the distribution of refractive error in young subjects in a rural area of Paraguay in the context of an international cooperation campaign for the prevention of blindness. METHODS: A sample of 1466 young subjects (ranging from 3 to 22 years old, with a mean age of 11.21±3.63 years old, were examined to assess their distance visual acuity (VA and refractive error. The first screening examination performed by trained volunteers, included visual acuity testing, autokeratometry and non-cycloplegic autorefraction. Inclusion criteria for a second complete cycloplegic eye examination by an optometrist were VA <20/25 (0.10 logMAR or 0.8 decimal and/or corneal astigmatism ≥1.50 D. RESULTS: An uncorrected distance VA of 0 logMAR (1.0 decimal was found in 89.2% of children. VA <20/25 and/or corneal astigmatism ≥1.50 D was found in 3.9% of children (n=57, with a prevalence of hyperopia of 5.2% (0.2% of the total in this specific group. Furthermore, myopia (spherical equivalent ≤-0.5 D was found in 37.7% of the refracted children (0.5% of the total. The prevalence of refractive astigmatism (cylinder ≤-1.50 D was 15.8% (0.6% of the total. Visual impairment (VI (0.05≤VA≤0.3 was found in 12/114 (0.4% of the refracted eyes. Main causes for VI were refractive error (58%, retinal problems (17%, 2/12, albinism (17%, 2/12 and unknown (8%, 1/12. CONCLUSION: A low prevalence of refractive error has been found in this rural area of Paraguay, with higher prevalence of myopia than of hyperopia.

MEG reveals a fast pathway from somatosensory cortex to occipital areas via posterior parietal cortex in a blind subject

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas A Ioannides

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Cross-modal activity in visual cortex of blind subjects has been reported during performance of variety of non-visual tasks. A key unanswered question is through which pathways non-visual inputs are funneled to the visual cortex. Here we used tomographic analysis of single trial magnetoencephalography (MEG data recorded from one congenitally blind and two sighted subjects after stimulation of the left and right median nerves at three intensities: below sensory threshold, above sensory threshold and above motor threshold; the last sufficient to produce thumb twitching. We identified reproducible brain responses in the primary somatosensory (S1 and motor (M1 cortices at around 20 ms post-stimulus, which were very similar in sighted and blind subjects. Time-frequency analysis revealed strong 45 to 70 Hz activity at latencies of 20 to 50 ms in S1 and M1, and posterior parietal cortex Brodmann areas (BA 7 and 40, which compared to lower frequencies, were substantially more pronounced in the blind than the sighted subjects. Critically, at frequencies from α-band up to 100 Hz we found clear, strong and widespread responses in the visual cortex of the blind subject, which increased with the intensity of the somatosensory stimuli. Time-delayed mutual information (MI revealed that in blind subject the stimulus information is funneled from the early somatosensory to visual cortex through posterior parietal BA 7 and 40, projecting first to visual areas V5 and V3, and eventually V1. The flow of information through this pathway occured in stages characterized by convergence of activations into specific cortical regions. In sighted subjects, no linked activity was found that led from the somatosensory to the visual cortex through any of the studied brain regions. These results provide the first evidence from MEG that in blind subjects, tactile information is routed from primary somatosensory to occipital cortex via the posterior parietal cortex.

Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Sattler

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Inherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases.

Can body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and waist-height ratio predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Liping

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is associated with metabolic risk factors. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR and waist-height ratio (WHtR are used to predict the risk of obesity related diseases. However, it has not been examined whether these four indicators can detect the clustering of metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects. Methods There are 772 Chinese subjects in the present study. Metabolic risk factors including high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glucose intolerance were identified according to the criteria from WHO. All statistical analyses were performed separately according to sex by using the SPSS 12.0. Results BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values were all significantly associated with blood pressure, glucose, triglyceride and also with the number of metabolic risk factors in both male and female subjects (all of P Conclusion The BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values can similarly predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects.

Stabilizing intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Panza, G.F.; Peresan, A.

2001-12-01

A new scheme for the application of the intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8 is proposed. The scheme accounts for the natural distribution of seismic activity, eliminates the subjectivity in the positioning of the areas of investigation and provides additional stability of the predictions with respect to the original variant. According to the retroactive testing in Italy and adjacent regions, this improvement is achieved without any significant change of the alarm volume in comparison with the results published so far. (author)

Predicting forested catchment evapotranspiration and streamflow from stand sapwood area and Aridity Index

Science.gov (United States)

Lane, Patrick

2016-04-01

Estimating the water balance of ungauged catchments has been the subject of decades of research. An extension of the fundamental problem of estimating the hydrology is then understanding how do changes in catchment attributes affect the water balance component? This is a particular issue in forest hydrology where vegetation exerts such a strong influence on evapotranspiration (ET), and consequent streamflow (Q). Given the primacy of trees in the water balance, and the potential for change to species and density through logging, fire, pests and diseases and drought, methods that directly relate ET/Q to vegetation structure, species, and stand density are very powerful. Plot studies on tree water use routinely use sapwood area (SA) to calculate transpiration and upscale to the stand/catchment scale. Recent work in south eastern Australian forests have found stand-wide SA to be linearly correlated (R2 = 0.89) with long term mean annual loss (P-Q), and hence, long term mean annual catchment streamflow. Robust relationships can be built between basal area (BA), tree density and stand SA. BA and density are common forest inventory measurements. Until now, no research has related the fundamental stand attribute of SA to streamflow. The data sets include catchments that have been thinned and with varying age classes. Thus far these analyses have been for energy limited systems in wetter forest types. SA has proven to be a more robust biometric than leaf area index which varies seasonally. That long term ET/Q is correlated with vegetation conforms to the Budyko framework. Use of a downscaled (20 m) Aridity Index (AI) has shown distinct correlations with stand SA, and therefore T. Structural patterns at a the hillslope scale not only correlate with SA and T, but also with interception (I) and forest floor evaporation (Es). These correlations between AI and I and Es have given R2 > 0.8. The result of these studies suggest an ability to estimate mean annual ET fluxes at sub

Predicting fuel poverty at a small-area level in England

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fahmy, Eldin; Gordon, David; Patsios, Demi

2011-01-01

This paper describes the development of a series of models for predicting the incidence of fuel poverty in England at a small-area level and examines the adequacy of the modelled results in informing our understanding of the geography of fuel poverty. This paper summarises the development of alternative approaches to model specification based upon different approaches to the treatment of household income. Since 2003 small-area fuel poverty estimates have been widely used to inform affordable warmth policies and local targeting of fuel poverty programs. Whilst improvements in data sources and methods in recent years provide an opportunity to better understand the spatial distribution of fuel poverty, these analyses suggest that our understanding of the incidence and spatial distribution of fuel poverty is highly sensitive to the way in which household incomes are measured. - Highlights: → The proposed models estimate fuel poverty incidence at a small-area level. → This is necessary in order to accurately target local fuel poverty interventions. → Fuel poverty estimates are highly sensitive to differences in income measurement. → Fewer children and more pensioners are fuel poor using EHCS income measures. → More children and fewer pensioners are fuel poor using HBAI income measures.

Plasma triacylglycerol and coagulation factor concentrations predict the anticoagulant effect of dietary fish oil in overweight subjects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vanschoonbeek, Kristof; Feijge, Marion A H; Saris, Wim H M

2007-01-01

fish-oil effects. In study 1, 54 overweight subjects consumed 3.1 g (n-3) PUFA daily. In study 2, which involved 42 overweight patients with type 2 diabetes, 20 subjects consumed (n-3) PUFA, whereas 22 others ingested a preparation rich in (n-6) PUFA. Tissue factor-induced thrombin generation (thrombin...... potential) was determined as an integrated measure of plasma coagulant activity. In both studies, multivariate analysis indicated a strong clustering of fasting concentrations of triacylglycerols, prothrombin, factor V, factor VII, and factor X with one another at baseline. This cluster of factors......-induced lowering of triacylglycerol and coagulation factor V, VII, and X concentrations, and thrombin generation. We conclude that high fasting triacylglycerol concentrations predict high procoagulant activity and a lowering of thrombin potential with dietary fish oil....

Simulating urban-scale air pollutants and their predicting capabilities over the Seoul metropolitan area.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Il-Soo; Lee, Suk-Jo; Kim, Cheol-Hee; Yoo, Chul; Lee, Yong-Hee

2004-06-01

Urban-scale air pollutants for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter > or = 10 microm, and ozone (O3) were simulated over the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea, during the period of July 2-11, 2002, and their predicting capabilities were discussed. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) and the highly disaggregated anthropogenic and the biogenic gridded emissions (1 km x 1 km) recently prepared by the Korean Ministry of Environment were applied. Wind fields with observational nudging in the prognostic meteorological model TAPM are optionally adopted to comparatively examine the meteorological impact on the prediction capabilities of urban-scale air pollutants. The result shows that the simulated concentrations of secondary air pollutant largely agree with observed levels with an index of agreement (IOA) of >0.6, whereas IOAs of approximately 0.4 are found for most primary pollutants in the major cities, reflecting the quality of emission data in the urban area. The observationally nudged wind fields with higher IOAs have little effect on the prediction for both primary and secondary air pollutants, implying that the detailed wind field does not consistently improve the urban air pollution model performance if emissions are not well specified. However, the robust highest concentrations are better described toward observations by imposing observational nudging, suggesting the importance of wind fields for the predictions of extreme concentrations such as robust highest concentrations, maximum levels, and >90th percentiles of concentrations for both primary and secondary urban-scale air pollutants.

Predicting personal preferences in subjective video quality assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korhonen, Jari

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the problem of predicting the visual quality of a specific test sample (e.g. a video clip) experienced by a specific user, based on the ratings by other users for the same sample and the same user for other samples. A simple linear model and algorithm is presented, where...... the characteristics of each test sample are represented by a set of parameters, and the individual preferences are represented by weights for the parameters. According to the validation experiment performed on public visual quality databases annotated with raw individual scores, the proposed model can predict...

The Prevalence of Mathematical Anxiety in a Business School: A Comparative Study across Subject Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Howard

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Mathematical anxiety is a phenomenon linked to poor attainment in mathematics and restricted development of mathematical skills among those who are afflicted by it. Unfortunately most undergraduate courses in business related areas require the further study of mathematics to enable effective business decision making and students who suffer from mathematical anxiety are placed at risk of underperformance or failure in such quantitative modules. This paper summarizes the results of a survey (n = 330 of students joining a university business school with a view to ascertaining the degree of mathematical anxiety exhibited by incoming students. Results of the survey show no significant differences in anxiety attributable to age or gender but significant differences attributable to level of study and subject area. Implications of the findings for a redesigned teaching approach are discussed drawing on suggestions from the literature surrounding mathematical anxiety.

Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve-number equation

Science.gov (United States)

Lyon, Steve W.; Walter, M. Todd; Gérard-Marchant, Pierre; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2004-10-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve-number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point-source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS-CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south-eastern Australia to produce runoff-probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN-VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS-CN method, the distributed CN-VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN-VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS-CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology.

Use of fundus autofluorescence images to predict geographic atrophy progression.

Science.gov (United States)

Bearelly, Srilaxmi; Khanifar, Aziz A; Lederer, David E; Lee, Jane J; Ghodasra, Jason H; Stinnett, Sandra S; Cousins, Scott W

2011-01-01

Fundus autofluorescence imaging has been shown to be helpful in predicting progression of geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to age-related macular degeneration. We assess the ability of fundus autofluorescence imaging to predict rate of GA progression using a simple categorical scheme. Subjects with GA secondary to age-related macular degeneration with fundus autofluorescence imaging acquired at least 12 months apart were included. Rim area focal hyperautofluorescence was defined as percentage of the 500-μm-wide margin bordering the GA that contained increased autofluorescence. Rim area focal hyperautofluorescence on baseline fundus autofluorescence images was assessed and categorized depending on the extent of rim area focal hyperautofluorescence (Category 1: ≤33%; Category 2: between 33 and 67%; Category 3: ≥67%). Total GA areas at baseline and follow-up were measured to calculate change in GA progression. Forty-five eyes of 45 subjects were included; average duration of follow-up was 18.5 months. Median growth rates differed among categories of baseline rim area focal hyperautofluorescence (P = 0.01 among Categories 1, 2, and 3; P = 0.008 for Category 1 compared with Category 3, Jonckheere-Terpstra test). A simple categorical scheme that stratifies the amount of increased autofluorescence in the 500-μm margin bordering GA may be used to differentiate faster and slower progressors.

Comparison of optic area measurement using fundus photography and optical coherence tomography between optic nerve head drusen and control subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Flores-Rodríguez, Patricia; Gili, Pablo; Martín-Ríos, María Dolores; Grifol-Clar, Eulalia

2013-03-01

To compare optic disc area measurement between optic nerve head drusen (ONHD) and control subjects using fundus photography, time-domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT) and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). We also made a comparison between each of the three techniques. We performed our study on 66 eyes (66 patients) with ONHD and 70 healthy control subjects (70 controls) with colour ocular fundus photography at 20º (Zeiss FF 450 IR plus), TD-OCT (Stratus OCT) with the Fast Optic Disc protocol and SD-OCT (Cirrus OCT) with the Optic Disc Cube 200 × 200 protocol for measurement of the optic disc area. The measurements were made by two observers and in each measurement a correction of the image magnification factor was performed. Measurement comparison using the Student's t-test/Mann-Whitney U test, the intraclass correlation coefficient, Pearson/Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman plot was performed in the statistical analysis. Mean and standard deviation (SD) of the optic disc area in ONHD and in controls was 2.38 (0.54) mm(2) and 2.54 (0.42) mm(2), respectively with fundus photography; 2.01 (0.56) mm(2) and 1.66 (0.37) mm(2), respectively with TD-OCT, and 2.03 (0.49) mm(2) and 1.75 (0.38) mm(2), respectively with SD-OCT. In ONHD and controls, repeatability of optic disc area measurement was excellent with fundus photography and optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT and SD-OCT), but with a low degree of agreement between both techniques. Optic disc area measurement is smaller in ONHD compared to healthy subjects with fundus photography, unlike time-domain and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in which the reverse is true. Both techniques offer good repeatability, but a low degree of correlation and agreement, which means that optic disc area measurement is not interchangeable or comparable between techniques. Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2013 The College of Optometrists.

Do Electrochemiluminescence Assays Improve Prediction of Time to Type 1 Diabetes in Autoantibody-Positive TrialNet Subjects?

OpenAIRE

Fouts, Alexandra; Pyle, Laura; Yu, Liping; Miao, Dongmei; Michels, Aaron; Krischer, Jeffrey; Sosenko, Jay; Gottlieb, Peter; Steck, Andrea K.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To explore whether electrochemiluminescence (ECL) assays can help improve prediction of time to type 1 diabetes in the TrialNet autoantibody-positive population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS TrialNet subjects who were positive for one or more autoantibodies (microinsulin autoantibody, GAD65 autoantibody [GADA], IA-2A, and ZnT8A) with available ECL-insulin autoantibody (IAA) and ECL-GADA data at their initial visit were analyzed; after a median follow-up of 24 months, 177 of these 1,2...

Problem Solving and Creativity and Design: What Influence Do They Have on Girls' Interest in STEM Subject Areas?

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Robyn; Heaverlo, Carol

2013-01-01

For girls there is a distinct loss in interest, lack of confidence, and decline in positive attitudes toward STEM subject areas that begins early on in their academic experience and increases with age. According to the National Academy of Engineering, students need to begin associating the possibilities in STEM fields with the need for creativity…

Reading a suspenseful literary text activates brain areas related to social cognition and predictive inference.

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Moritz Lehne

Full Text Available Stories can elicit powerful emotions. A key emotional response to narrative plots (e.g., novels, movies, etc. is suspense. Suspense appears to build on basic aspects of human cognition such as processes of expectation, anticipation, and prediction. However, the neural processes underlying emotional experiences of suspense have not been previously investigated. We acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data while participants read a suspenseful literary text (E.T.A. Hoffmann's "The Sandman" subdivided into short text passages. Individual ratings of experienced suspense obtained after each text passage were found to be related to activation in the medial frontal cortex, bilateral frontal regions (along the inferior frontal sulcus, lateral premotor cortex, as well as posterior temporal and temporo-parietal areas. The results indicate that the emotional experience of suspense depends on brain areas associated with social cognition and predictive inference.

Family differences in equations for predicting biomass and leaf area in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii).

Science.gov (United States)

J.B. St. Clair

1993-01-01

Logarithmic regression equations were developed to predict component biomass and leaf area for an 18-yr-old genetic test of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco var. menziesii) based on stem diameter or cross-sectional sapwood area. Equations did not differ among open-pollinated families in slope, but intercepts...

Characteristic and Prediction of Carbon Monoxide Concentration using Time Series Analysis in Selected Urban Area in Malaysia

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Abdul Hamid Hazrul

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Carbon monoxide (CO is a poisonous, colorless, odourless and tasteless gas. The main source of carbon monoxide is from motor vehicles and carbon monoxide levels in residential areas closely reflect the traffic density. Prediction of carbon monoxide is important to give an early warning to sufferer of respiratory problems and also can help the related authorities to be more prepared to prevent and take suitable action to overcome the problem. This research was carried out using secondary data from Department of Environment Malaysia from 2013 to 2014. The main objectives of this research is to understand the characteristic of CO concentration and also to find the most suitable time series model to predict the CO concentration in Bachang, Melaka and Kuala Terengganu. Based on the lowest AIC value and several error measure, the results show that ARMA (1,1 is the most appropriate model to predict CO concentration level in Bachang, Melaka while ARMA (1,2 is the most suitable model with smallest error to predict the CO concentration level for residential area in Kuala Terengganu.

Watershed area ratio accurately predicts daily streamflow in nested catchments in the Catskills, New York

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Chris C. Gianfagna

2015-09-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Watershed area ratio was the most important basin parameter for estimating flow at upstream sites based on downstream flow. The area ratio alone explained 93% of the variance in the slopes of relationships between upstream and downstream flows. Regression analysis indicated that flow at any upstream point can be estimated by multiplying the flow at a downstream reference gage by the watershed area ratio. This method accurately predicted upstream flows at area ratios as low as 0.005. We also observed a very strong relationship (R2 = 0.79 between area ratio and flow–flow slopes in non-nested catchments. Our results indicate that a simple flow estimation method based on watershed area ratios is justifiable, and indeed preferred, for the estimation of daily streamflow in ungaged watersheds in the Catskills region.

Predicting the Permanent Safe Donor Area for Hair Transplantation in Koreans with Male Pattern Baldness according to the Position of the Parietal Whorl

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Na, Young Cheon; Moh, Jae Seong; Lee, Seung Yong; You, Seung Hyun

2014-01-01

Background The most crucial factor in hair transplantation for male pattern baldness (MPB) patients is the efficient utilization of the donor-recipient ratio. However, there is no known factor that scientifically predicts the rate of progression of alopecia or indicates a permanently safe donor area. Methods The study considered 1,008 Korean adult males with MPB; of these, it excluded 56 males with an absence of parietal whorls (PWs). The authors investigated the distance from the vertical bimeatal line (VM) to the PW, from the PW to the upper border of the helical rim (HR), and the distance from the PW to the occipital fringe (OF) in 952 subjects with a PW. Furthermore, we examined the distance from the PW to the OF considering the duration of alopecia and age in 322 subjects with vertex alopecia. Results The distance between the VM and PW varied from 1.5 to 11 cm, with an average distance of 6.25 cm. The PW-HR distance ranged from 3.4 to 17.5 cm, and the average distance was 7.79 cm. The PW-OF distance ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 cm, and the average distance was 2.37 cm. Conclusions For the PW, very large variations existed in the vertical direction. The position of the PW could predict the progression range of the total alopecia of the vertex. Alopecia mostly progresses within 6 cm of the PW toward the occipital side. PMID:24883280

Predicting the Permanent Safe Donor Area for Hair Transplantation in Koreans with Male Pattern Baldness according to the Position of the Parietal Whorl

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Jae Hyun Park

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Background The most crucial factor in hair transplantation for male pattern baldness (MPB patients is the efficient utilization of the donor-recipient ratio. However, there is no known factor that scientifically predicts the rate of progression of alopecia or indicates a permanently safe donor area. Methods The study considered 1,008 Korean adult males with MPB; of these, it excluded 56 males with an absence of parietal whorls (PWs. The authors investigated the distance from the vertical bimeatal line (VM to the PW, from the PW to the upper border of the helical rim (HR, and the distance from the PW to the occipital fringe (OF in 952 subjects with a PW. Furthermore, we examined the distance from the PW to the OF considering the duration of alopecia and age in 322 subjects with vertex alopecia. Results The distance between the VM and PW varied from 1.5 to 11 cm, with an average distance of 6.25 cm. The PW-HR distance ranged from 3.4 to 17.5 cm, and the average distance was 7.79 cm. The PW-OF distance ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 cm, and the average distance was 2.37 cm. Conclusions For the PW, very large variations existed in the vertical direction. The position of the PW could predict the progression range of the total alopecia of the vertex. Alopecia mostly progresses within 6 cm of the PW toward the occipital side.

75 FR 26967 - Guidance for Industry: Use of Water by Food Manufacturers in Areas Subject to a Boil-Water...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-13

... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2010-D-0236] Guidance for Industry: Use of Water by Food Manufacturers in Areas Subject to a Boil-Water Advisory; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Food and Drug...

Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

A Study on Pharmacokinetics of Bosentan with Systems Modeling, Part 2: Prospectively Predicting Systemic and Liver Exposure in Healthy Subjects.

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Li, Rui; Kimoto, Emi; Niosi, Mark; Tess, David A; Lin, Jian; Tremaine, Larry M; Di, Li

2018-04-01

Predicting human pharmacokinetics of novel compounds is a critical step in drug discovery and clinical study design but continues to be a challenging task for hepatic transporter substrates, particularly in predicting their liver exposures. In this study, using bosentan as an example, we prospectively predicted systemic exposure and the (pseudo) steady-state unbound liver-to-unbound plasma ratio ( K p uu ) in healthy subjects using 1) a mechanistic approach solely based on in vitro hepatocyte assays and 2) an approach based on hepatic process rates from monkey in vivo data but Michaelis-Menten constants from in vitro data. Both methods reasonably match the observed human systemic time course data, but the second method leads to better prediction accuracy. In addition, the second method can predict a human K p uu value that is close to the value deduced using clinical data. We also generated rat and monkey liver K p uu values in terminal studies. However, these directly measured animal values are different from the deduced human value. Copyright © 2018 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

NOAA ESRI Grid - depth predictions bathymetry model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

NOAA ESRI Shapefile - sediment composition class predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment composition class predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The...

Heat stress in urban areas. Indoor and outdoor temperatures in different urban structure types and subjectively reported well-being during a heat wave in the city of Leipzig

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franck, Ulrich; Roeder, Stefan; Schlink, Uwe [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig (Germany). Core Facility Studies; Krueger, Michael [Leipzig Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography; Schwarz, Nina [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig (Germany). Dept. of Computational Landscape Ecology; Grossmann, Katrin [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig (Germany). Dept. of Urban and Environmental Sociology

2013-04-15

Climate projections for Leipzig suggest elevated minimum and maximum temperatures as well as more frequent days with high temperatures. Hence, climate change is threatening human well-being and health. People spend the majority of their time indoors. Therefore, indoor temperatures (especially during the night) are of special importance with respect to well-being and health. Indoor air temperature depends on outdoor air temperatures, but is for example modified by type of urban structure, housing area, and may be also influenced by differences in the behavior of the inhabitants. Especially in cities, outdoor air temperatures depend on urban structure e.g. housing density, building arrangement, unpaved areas, types of urban structures, urban green, and other factors. Hence, the questions arise how types of urban structures are related to inner-urban temperature differences and how outdoor air temperatures influence indoor temperatures in dependence on urban housing conditions. This work is a part of a pilot study conducted during the summer 2010 which gathered data from remote sensing, mobile measurements, stationary measurements of air temperatures and relative humidity in areas with different housing structures, and of indoor as well as outdoor temperatures in occupied apartments. Household-survey data reported the subjective perception of heat stress. The study resulted in rather complex relationships between type of housing areas, indoor and outdoor temperatures, morning and evening temperatures, indoor and outdoor temperatures as well as subjective heat perception. Green spaces and types of residential areas are related to air temperatures. More green resulted in lower temperatures. Temperatures have a tendency to increase with increasing story number and are significantly higher in the top floor. An indoor heat island effect corresponding to the outdoor effect could be shown for the homes: Distance to city center is a predicting variable for both outdoor and

Heat stress in urban areas: Indoor and outdoor temperatures in different urban structure types and subjectively reported well-being during a heat wave in the city of Leipzig

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrich Franck

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Climate projections for Leipzig suggest elevated minimum and maximum temperatures as well as more frequent days with high temperatures. Hence, climate change is threatening human well-being and health. People spend the majority of their time indoors. Therefore, indoor temperatures (especially during the night are of special importance with respect to well-being and health. Indoor air temperature depends on outdoor air temperatures, but is for example modified by type of urban structure, housing area, and may be also influenced by differences in the behavior of the inhabitants. Especially in cities, outdoor air temperatures depend on urban structure e.g. housing density, building arrangement, unpaved areas, types of urban structures, urban green, and other factors. Hence, the questions arise how types of urban structures are related to inner-urban temperature differences and how outdoor air temperatures influence indoor temperatures in dependence on urban housing conditions. This work is a part of a pilot study conducted during the summer 2010 which gathered data from remote sensing, mobile measurements, stationary measurements of air temperatures and relative humidity in areas with different housing structures, and of indoor as well as outdoor temperatures in occupied apartments. Household-survey data reported the subjective perception of heat stress. The study resulted in rather complex relationships between type of housing areas, indoor and outdoor temperatures, morning and evening temperatures, indoor and outdoor temperatures as well as subjective heat perception. Green spaces and types of residential areas are related to air temperatures. More green resulted in lower temperatures. Temperatures have a tendency to increase with increasing story number and are significantly higher in the top floor. An indoor heat island effect corresponding to the outdoor effect could be shown for the homes: Distance to city center is a predicting variable for

Economics of Scholarly Publishing: Exploring the Causes of Subscription Price Variations of Scholarly Journals in Business Subject-Specific Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Lewis G.

2011-01-01

This empirical research investigates subscription price variations of scholarly journals in five business subject-specific areas using the semilogarithmic regression model. It has two main purposes. The first is to address the unsettled debate over whether or not and to what extent commercial publishers reap monopoly profits by overcharging…

What factors predict individual subjects' re-learning of words during anomia treatment?

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William Hayward

2014-04-01

Full Text Available A growing number of studies are addressing methodological approaches to treating anomia in persons with aphasia. What is missing from these studies are validated procedures for determining which words have the greatest potential for recovery. The current study evaluates the usefulness of several word-specific variables and one subject-specific measure in predicting success in re-learning problematic words. Methods: Two participants, YPR and ODH, presented with fluent aphasia and marked anomia. YPR’s Aphasia Quotient on the Western Aphasia Battery was 58.8; ODH’s AQ was 79.5. Stimuli were 96 pictures chosen individually for each participant from among those that they named incorrectly on multiple baselines. Subsequently, participants were presented with each picture and asked to indicate whether they could name it covertly, or “in their head.” Each subject completed a biweekly anomia treatment for these pictures. We performed separate statistical analyses for each subject. Dependent variables included whether each word was learned during treatment (Acquisition and the number of sessions required to learn each word (#Sessions. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the association of (self-reported covert naming success with Acquisition, and linear regression models to assess the relationship between (self-reported covert naming success and #Sessions. Starting with the predictors of covert naming accuracy, number of syllables (#syllables, number of phonemes (#phonemes, and frequency, we used backwards elimination methods to select the final regression models. Results: By the end of 25 treatment sessions, YPR had learned 90.2% (37/41 of the covertly correct words but only 70.4% (38/54 of the covertly incorrect words. In the unadjusted analysis, covert naming was significantly associated with Acquisition, OR=3.89, 95% CI: (1.19, 12.74, p=0.025. The result remained significant after adjustment for #phonemes (the only other predictor

Extent of Stream Burial and Relationships to Watershed Area, Topography, and Impervious Surface Area

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Roy E. Weitzell

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Stream burial—the routing of streams through culverts, pipes, and concrete lined channels, or simply paving them over—is common during urbanization, and disproportionately affects small, headwater streams. Burial undermines the physical and chemical processes governing life in streams, with consequences for water quality and quantity that may amplify from headwaters to downstream receiving waters. Knowledge of the extent of stream burial is critical for understanding cumulative impacts to stream networks, and for future decision-making allowing for urban development while protecting ecosystem function. We predicted stream burial across the urbanizing Potomac River Basin (USA for each 10-m stream segment in the basin from medium-resolution impervious cover data and training observations obtained from high-resolution aerial photography in a GIS. Results were analyzed across a range in spatial aggregation, including counties and independent cities, small watersheds, and regular spatial grids. Stream burial was generally correlated with total impervious surface area (ISA, with areas exhibiting ISA above 30% often subject to elevated ratios of stream burial. Recurring patterns in burial predictions related to catchment area and topographic slope were also detected. We discuss these results in the context of physiographic constraints on stream location and urban development, including implications for environmental management of aquatic resources.

Subjective Technology Adaptivity Predicts Technology Use in Old Age.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamin, Stefan T; Lang, Frieder R; Beyer, Anja

2017-01-01

To date, not much is known about the psychological and motivational factors underlying technology use in late life. What are the interindividual determinants that lead older adults to invest in using technological innovations despite the age-related physiological changes that impose challenges on behavioral plasticity in everyday life? This research explores interindividual differences in subjective technology adaptivity - a general technology-related motivational resource that accounts for technology use in late life. More specifically, we investigate the influence of this factor relative to demographic characteristics, personality traits, and functional limitations in a longitudinal sample of community-dwelling older adults. We report results from a paper-and-pencil survey with 136 older adults between 59 and 92 years of age (mean = 71.4, SD = 7.4). Of those participants, 77 participated in a 2-year follow-up. We assessed self-reports of technology use, subjective technology adaptivity, functional limitations, and the personality traits openness to new experiences and neuroticism. Higher levels of subjective technology adaptivity were associated with technology use at the first measurement as well as increased use over the course of 2 years. Subjective technology adaptivity is a significant predictor of technology use in old age. Our findings contribute to improving the understanding of interindividual differences when using technological innovation in late life. Moreover, our findings have implications in the context of user involvement and may contribute to the successful development of innovative technology for older adults. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Arsenic methylation capability and hypertension risk in subjects living in arseniasis-hyperendemic areas in southwestern Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Y.-K.; Tseng, C.-H.; Huang, Y.-L.; Yang, M.-H.; Chen, C.-J.; Hsueh, Y.-M.

2007-01-01

Background: Cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE) from drinking water has been shown to be associated with hypertension in a dose-response pattern. This study further explored the association between arsenic methylation capability and hypertension risk among residents of arseniasis-hyperendemic areas in Taiwan considering the effect of CAE and other potential confounders. Method: There were 871 subjects (488 women and 383 men) and among them 372 were diagnosed as having hypertension based on a positive history or measured systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg. Urinary arsenic species were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography-hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry. Primary arsenic methylation index [PMI, defined as monomethylarsonic acid (MMA V ) divided by (As III + As V )] and secondary arsenic methylation index (SMI, defined as dimethylarsinic acid divided by MMA V ) were used as indicators for arsenic methylation capability. Results: The level of urinary arsenic was still significantly correlated with cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE) calculated from a questionnaire interview (p = 0.02) even after the residents stopped drinking the artesian well water for 2-3 decades. Hypertensive subjects had higher percentages of MMA V and lower SMI than subjects without hypertension. However, subjects having CAE > 0 mg/L-year had higher hypertension risk than those who had CAE = 0 mg/L-year disregard a high or low methylation index. Conclusion: Inefficient arsenic methylation ability may be related with hypertension risk

NOAA ESRI Grid - sediment size predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

Amazon forest carbon dynamics predicted by profiles of canopy leaf area and light environment

Science.gov (United States)

S. C. Stark; V. Leitold; J. L. Wu; M. O. Hunter; C. V. de Castilho; F. R. C. Costa; S. M. McMahon; G. G. Parker; M. Takako Shimabukuro; M. A. Lefsky; M. Keller; L. F. Alves; J. Schietti; Y. E. Shimabukuro; D. O. Brandao; T. K. Woodcock; N. Higuchi; P. B de Camargo; R. C. de Oliveira; S. R. Saleska

2012-01-01

Tropical forest structural variation across heterogeneous landscapes may control above-ground carbon dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that canopy structure (leaf area and light availability) – remotely estimated from LiDAR – control variation in above-ground coarse wood production (biomass growth). Using a statistical model, these factors predicted biomass growth...

Predicting Extubation Outcome by Cough Peak Flow Measured Using a Built-in Ventilator Flow Meter.

Science.gov (United States)

Gobert, Florent; Yonis, Hodane; Tapponnier, Romain; Fernandez, Raul; Labaune, Marie-Aude; Burle, Jean-François; Barbier, Jack; Vincent, Bernard; Cleyet, Maria; Richard, Jean-Christophe; Guérin, Claude

2017-12-01

Successful weaning from mechanical ventilation depends on the patient's ability to cough efficiently. Cough peak flow (CPF) could predict extubation success using a dedicated flow meter but required patient disconnection. We aimed to predict extubation outcome using an overall model, including cough performance assessed by a ventilator flow meter. This was a prospective observational study conducted from November 2014 to October 2015. Before and after a spontaneous breathing trial, subjects were encouraged to cough as strongly as possible before freezing the ventilator screen to assess CPF and tidal volume (V T ) in the preceding inspiration. Early extubation success rate was defined as the proportion of subjects not re-intubated 48 h after extubation. Diagnostic performance of CPF and V T was assessed by using the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cut-off values for CPF and V T were defined according to median values and used to describe the performance of a predictive test combining them with risk factors of early extubation failure. Among 673 subjects admitted, 92 had a cough assessment before extubation. For the 81 subjects with early extubation success, the median CPF was -67.7 L/min, and median V T was 0.646 L. For the 11 subjects with early extubation failure, the median CPF was -57.3 L/min, and median V T was 0.448 L. Area under the curve was 0.61 (95% CI 0.37-0.83) for CPF and 0.64 (95% CI 0.42-0.84) for CPF/V T combined. After dichotomization (CPF 0.55 L), there was a synergistic effect to predict early extubation success ( P meter of an ICU ventilator was able to predict extubation success and to build a composite score to predict extubation failure. The results were close to that found in previous studies that used a dedicated flow meter. This could help to identify high-risk subjects to prevent extubation failure. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT02847221.). Copyright © 2017 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Prediction of periodontopathic bacteria in dental plaque of periodontal healthy subjects by measurement of volatile sulfur compounds in mouth air.

Science.gov (United States)

Kishi, Mitsuo; Ohara-Nemoto, Yuko; Takahashi, Masahiro; Kishi, Kayo; Kimura, Shigenobu; Aizawa, Fumie; Yonemitsu, Masami

2013-03-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether measurements of volatile sulfur compounds (VSCs) are useful to predict colonization of periodontopathic bacteria. For this purpose, we assessed the relationships among distributions of 4 species of periodontopathic bacteria in tongue coating and dental plaque, oral conditions including VSC concentration in mouth air, and smoking habit of periodontal healthy young subjects. The subjects were 108 young adults (mean age, 23.5±2.56 years) without clinical periodontal pockets. Information regarding smoking habit was obtained by interview. After VSC concentration in mouth, air was measured with a portable sulfide monitor (Halimeter(®)), non-stimulated saliva flow and dental caries status were assessed, and tongue coating and dental plaque samples were collected from the subjects. The tongue coating samples were weighed to determine the amount. The colonization of Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia, Prevotella intermedia, and Treponema denticola in both tongue coating and plaque samples was investigated using species-specific polymerase chain reaction assays. Significant relationships were observed between the colonization of periodontopathic bacteria in tongue coating and plaque samples, especially that of P. gingivalis. VSC concentration showed the most significant association with colonization of P. gingivalis in both tongue coating and dental plaque. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the adjusted partial correlation coefficient [Exp(B)] values for VSC concentration with the colonization of P. gingivalis, P. intermedia, and T. denticola in dental plaque were 135, 35.4 and 10.4, respectively. In addition, smoking habit was also shown to be a significant variable in regression models [Exp(B)=6.19, 8.92 and 2.53, respectively]. Therefore, receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to predict the colonization of periodontal bacteria in dental plaque in the subjects divided by smoking

A Link between Subjective Perceptions of Memory and Physical Function: Implications for Subjective Cognitive Decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Cosentino, Stephanie; Devanand, Davangere; Gurland, Barry

2018-01-01

Subjective impairment in memory is a frequently defining feature of subjective cognitive decline (SCD), a state hypothesized to precede objectively apparent cognitive symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and to hold promise as a non-invasive, inexpensive, preclinical indicator of AD. However, a full model of the factors that contribute to subjective memory (SM), and therefore to SCD, has yet to be articulated. While SM impairment is widely known to be associated with negative affect, the extent to which SM functioning may also reflect other factors, particularly subjective beliefs or perceptions about one's health, is not known. To examine the extent to which SM is associated with subjective perceptions of health more broadly, the current study investigated the link between SM and subjective physical functioning (independent of depressive affect, and objective cognitive and physical function) in an ethnically diverse sample of 471 older adults enrolled in the population-based Northern Manhattan Aging Project. 199 (42%) participants endorsed no difficulty on a 5-point SM index while 272 (58%) endorsed some degree of difficulty. As hypothesized, SM correlated with both depression and subjective physical function, but not with age, education, global cognition, or objective physical function. When objective and subjective physical function were entered in two separate, adjusted linear regressions predicting SM, only subjective physical function and depressive affect independently predicted SM. Subjective perceptions of memory appear to reflect individuals' broader health perceptions in part. Articulating the various correlates of SM will improve identification of SCD specific to preclinical AD.

Strain dyssynchrony index determined by three-dimensional speckle area tracking can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

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Onishi Tetsuari

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We have previously reported strain dyssynchrony index assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking strain, and a marker of both dyssynchrony and residual myocardial contractility, can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. A newly developed three-dimensional (3-D speckle tracking system can quantify endocardial area change ratio (area strain, which coupled with the factors of both longitudinal and circumferential strain, from all 16 standard left ventricular (LV segments using complete 3-D pyramidal datasets. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that strain dyssynchrony index using area tracking (ASDI can quantify dyssynchrony and predict response to CRT. Methods We studied 14 heart failure patients with ejection fraction of 27 ± 7% (all≤35% and QRS duration of 172 ± 30 ms (all≥120 ms who underwent CRT. Echocardiography was performed before and 6-month after CRT. ASDI was calculated as the average difference between peak and end-systolic area strain of LV endocardium obtained from 3-D speckle tracking imaging using 16 segments. Conventional dyssynchrony measures were assessed by interventricular mechanical delay, Yu Index, and two-dimensional radial dyssynchrony by speckle-tracking strain. Response was defined as a ≥15% decrease in LV end-systolic volume 6-month after CRT. Results ASDI ≥ 3.8% was the best predictor of response to CRT with a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 100% and area under the curve (AUC of 0.93 (p Conclusions ASDI can predict responders and LV reverse remodeling following CRT. This novel index using the 3-D speckle tracking system, which shows circumferential and longitudinal LV dyssynchrony and residual endocardial contractility, may thus have clinical significance for CRT patients.

Striatal μ-opioid receptor availability predicts cold pressor pain threshold in healthy human subjects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hagelberg, Nora; Aalto, Sargo; Tuominen, Lauri

2012-01-01

the potential associations between μ-opioid receptor BP(ND) and psychophysical measures. The results show that striatal μ-opioid receptor BP(ND) predicts cold pressor pain threshold, but not cold pressor pain tolerance or tactile sensitivity. This finding suggests that striatal μ-opioid receptor density......Previous PET studies in healthy humans have shown that brain μ-opioid receptor activation during experimental pain is associated with reductions in the sensory and affective ratings of the individual pain experience. The aim of this study was to find out whether brain μ-opioid receptor binding...... at the resting state, in absence of painful stimulation, can be a long-term predictor of experimental pain sensitivity. We measured μ-opioid receptor binding potential (BP(ND)) with μ-opioid receptor selective radiotracer [(11)C]carfentanil and positron emission tomography (PET) in 12 healthy male subjects...

Metabolomics biomarkers to predict acamprosate treatment response in alcohol-dependent subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Hinton, David J; Vázquez, Marely Santiago; Geske, Jennifer R; Hitschfeld, Mario J; Ho, Ada M C; Karpyak, Victor M; Biernacka, Joanna M; Choi, Doo-Sup

2017-05-31

Precision medicine for alcohol use disorder (AUD) allows optimal treatment of the right patient with the right drug at the right time. Here, we generated multivariable models incorporating clinical information and serum metabolite levels to predict acamprosate treatment response. The sample of 120 patients was randomly split into a training set (n = 80) and test set (n = 40) five independent times. Treatment response was defined as complete abstinence (no alcohol consumption during 3 months of acamprosate treatment) while nonresponse was defined as any alcohol consumption during this period. In each of the five training sets, we built a predictive model using a least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) penalized selection method and then evaluated the predictive performance of each model in the corresponding test set. The models predicted acamprosate treatment response with a mean sensitivity and specificity in the test sets of 0.83 and 0.31, respectively, suggesting our model performed well at predicting responders, but not non-responders (i.e. many non-responders were predicted to respond). Studies with larger sample sizes and additional biomarkers will expand the clinical utility of predictive algorithms for pharmaceutical response in AUD.

Predicted high-water elevations for selected flood events at the Albert Pike Recreation Area, Ouachita National Forest

Science.gov (United States)

D.A. Marion

2012-01-01

The hydraulic characteristics are determined for the June 11, 2010, flood on the Little Missouri River at the Albert Pike Recreation Area in Arkansas. These characteristics are then used to predict the high-water elevations for the 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood events in the Loop B, C, and D Campgrounds of the recreation area. The peak discharge and related...

Cellular Automata Modelling in Predicting the Development of Settlement Areas, A Case Study in The Eastern District of Pontianak Waterfront City

Science.gov (United States)

Nurhidayati, E.; Buchori, I.; Mussadun; Fariz, T. R.

2017-07-01

Pontianak waterfront city as water-based urban has the potential of water resources, socio-economic, cultural, tourism and riverine settlements. Settlements areas in the eastern district of Pontianak waterfront city is located in the triangle of Kapuas river and Landak river. This study uses quantitative-GIS methods that integrates binary logistic regression and Cellular Automata-Markov models. The data used in this study such as satellite imagery Quickbird 2003, Ikonos 2008 and elevation contour interval 1 meter. This study aims to discover the settlement land use changes in 2003-2014 and to predict the settlements areas in 2020. This study results the accuracy in predicting of changes in settlements areas shows overall accuracy (79.74%) and the highest kappa index (0.55). The prediction results show that settlement areas (481.98 Ha) in 2020 and the increasingly of settlement areas (6.80 Ha/year) in 2014-2020. The development of settlement areas in 2020 shows the highest land expansion in Parit Mayor Village. The results of regression coefficient value (0) of flooding variable, so flooding did not influence to the development of settlement areas in the eastern district of Pontianak because the building’s adaptation of rumah panggung’s settlements was very good which have adjusted to the height of tidal flood.

Cortical surface area reduction in identification of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder: A pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Hao; Sun, Yawen; Su, Shanshan; Wang, Yao; Qiu, Yongming; Yang, Xi; Zhou, Yan; Xiao, Zeping; Wang, Zhen

2018-01-01

Victims of motor vehicle accidents often develop post-traumatic stress disorder, which causes significant social function loss. For the difficulty in treating post-traumatic stress disorder, identification of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder is essential for providing possible intervention. This paper aims to examine the cortical structural traits related to susceptibility to post-traumatic stress disorder. To address this issue, we performed structural magnetic resonance imaging study in motor vehicle accident victims within 48 hours from the accidents. A total of 70 victims, available for both clinical and magnetic resonance imaging data, enrolled in our study. Upon completion of 6-month follow-up, 29 of them developed post-traumatic stress disorder, while 41 of them didn't. At baseline, voxelwise comparisons of cortical thickness, cortical area and cortical volume were conducted between post-traumatic stress disorder group and trauma control group. As expected, several reduced cortical volume within frontal-temporal loop were observed in post-traumatic stress disorder. For cortical thickness, no between-group differences were observed. There were three clusters in left hemisphere and one cluster in right hemisphere showing decreased cortical area in post-traumatic stress disorder patients, compared with trauma controls. Peak voxels of the three clusters in left hemisphere were separately located in superior parietal cortex, insula and rostral anterior cingulate cortex. The finding of reduced surface area of left insula and left rostral anterior cingulate cortex suggests that shrinked surface area in motor vehicle accident victims could act as potential biomarker of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder.

A Geometrical-based Vertical Gain Correction for Signal Strength Prediction of Downtilted Base Station Antennas in Urban Areas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodriguez, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

2012-01-01

-based extension to standard empirical path loss prediction models can give quite reasonable accuracy in predicting the signal strength from tilted base station antennas in small urban macro-cells. Our evaluation is based on measurements on several sectors in a 2.6 GHz Long Term Evolution (LTE) cellular network......, with electrical antenna downtilt in the range from 0 to 10 degrees, as well as predictions based on ray-tracing and 3D building databases covering the measurement area. Although the calibrated ray-tracing predictions are highly accurate compared with the measured data, the combined LOS/NLOS COST-WI model...

Predicting human age using regional morphometry and inter-regional morphological similarity

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xun-Heng; Li, Lihua

2016-03-01

The goal of this study is predicting human age using neuro-metrics derived from structural MRI, as well as investigating the relationships between age and predictive neuro-metrics. To this end, a cohort of healthy subjects were recruited from 1000 Functional Connectomes Project. The ages of the participations were ranging from 7 to 83 (36.17+/-20.46). The structural MRI for each subject was preprocessed using FreeSurfer, resulting in regional cortical thickness, mean curvature, regional volume and regional surface area for 148 anatomical parcellations. The individual age was predicted from the combination of regional and inter-regional neuro-metrics. The prediction accuracy is r = 0.835, p Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted ages and actual ages. Moreover, the LASSO linear regression also found certain predictive features, most of which were inter-regional features. The turning-point of the developmental trajectories in human brain was around 40 years old based on regional cortical thickness. In conclusion, structural MRI could be potential biomarkers for the aging in human brain. The human age could be successfully predicted from the combination of regional morphometry and inter-regional morphological similarity. The inter-regional measures could be beneficial to investigating human brain connectome.

Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

Science.gov (United States)

Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

2018-05-01

The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

Clinical and MRI models predicting amyloid deposition in progressive aphasia and apraxia of speech.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Senjem, Matthew L; Gunter, Jeffrey L; Lowe, Val J; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A

2016-01-01

Beta-amyloid (Aβ) deposition can be observed in primary progressive aphasia (PPA) and progressive apraxia of speech (PAOS). While it is typically associated with logopenic PPA, there are exceptions that make predicting Aβ status challenging based on clinical diagnosis alone. We aimed to determine whether MRI regional volumes or clinical data could help predict Aβ deposition. One hundred and thirty-nine PPA (n = 97; 15 agrammatic, 53 logopenic, 13 semantic and 16 unclassified) and PAOS (n = 42) subjects were prospectively recruited into a cross-sectional study and underwent speech/language assessments, 3.0 T MRI and C11-Pittsburgh Compound B PET. The presence of Aβ was determined using a 1.5 SUVR cut-point. Atlas-based parcellation was used to calculate gray matter volumes of 42 regions-of-interest across the brain. Penalized binary logistic regression was utilized to determine what combination of MRI regions, and what combination of speech and language tests, best predicts Aβ (+) status. The optimal MRI model and optimal clinical model both performed comparably in their ability to accurately classify subjects according to Aβ status. MRI accurately classified 81% of subjects using 14 regions. Small left superior temporal and inferior parietal volumes and large left Broca's area volumes were particularly predictive of Aβ (+) status. Clinical scores accurately classified 83% of subjects using 12 tests. Phonological errors and repetition deficits, and absence of agrammatism and motor speech deficits were particularly predictive of Aβ (+) status. In comparison, clinical diagnosis was able to accurately classify 89% of subjects. However, the MRI model performed well in predicting Aβ deposition in unclassified PPA. Clinical diagnosis provides optimum prediction of Aβ status at the group level, although regional MRI measurements and speech and language testing also performed well and could have advantages in predicting Aβ status in unclassified PPA subjects.

Clinical and MRI models predicting amyloid deposition in progressive aphasia and apraxia of speech

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer L. Whitwell

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Beta-amyloid (Aβ deposition can be observed in primary progressive aphasia (PPA and progressive apraxia of speech (PAOS. While it is typically associated with logopenic PPA, there are exceptions that make predicting Aβ status challenging based on clinical diagnosis alone. We aimed to determine whether MRI regional volumes or clinical data could help predict Aβ deposition. One hundred and thirty-nine PPA (n = 97; 15 agrammatic, 53 logopenic, 13 semantic and 16 unclassified and PAOS (n = 42 subjects were prospectively recruited into a cross-sectional study and underwent speech/language assessments, 3.0 T MRI and C11-Pittsburgh Compound B PET. The presence of Aβ was determined using a 1.5 SUVR cut-point. Atlas-based parcellation was used to calculate gray matter volumes of 42 regions-of-interest across the brain. Penalized binary logistic regression was utilized to determine what combination of MRI regions, and what combination of speech and language tests, best predicts Aβ (+ status. The optimal MRI model and optimal clinical model both performed comparably in their ability to accurately classify subjects according to Aβ status. MRI accurately classified 81% of subjects using 14 regions. Small left superior temporal and inferior parietal volumes and large left Broca's area volumes were particularly predictive of Aβ (+ status. Clinical scores accurately classified 83% of subjects using 12 tests. Phonological errors and repetition deficits, and absence of agrammatism and motor speech deficits were particularly predictive of Aβ (+ status. In comparison, clinical diagnosis was able to accurately classify 89% of subjects. However, the MRI model performed well in predicting Aβ deposition in unclassified PPA. Clinical diagnosis provides optimum prediction of Aβ status at the group level, although regional MRI measurements and speech and language testing also performed well and could have advantages in predicting Aβ status in unclassified

Prediction of bead area contact load at the tire-wheel interface using NASTRAN

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, C. H. S.

1982-01-01

The theoretical prediction of the bead area contact load at the tire wheel interface using NASTRAN is reported. The application of the linear code to a basically nonlinear problem results in excessive deformation of the structure and the tire-wheel contact conditions become impossible to achieve. A psuedo-nonlinear approach was adopted in which the moduli of the cord reinforced composite are increased so that the computed key deformations matched that of the experiment. Numerical results presented are discussed.

NOAA ESRI Grid - depth uncertainty predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch bathymetry model

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth uncertainty predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

Prediction of adiabatic bubbly flows in TRACE using the interfacial area transport equation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Talley, J.; Worosz, T.; Kim, S.; Mahaffy, J.; Bajorek, S.; Tien, K.

2011-01-01

The conventional thermal-hydraulic reactor system analysis codes utilize a two-field, two-fluid formulation to model two-phase flows. To close this model, static flow regime transition criteria and algebraic relations are utilized to estimate the interfacial area concentration (a i ). To better reflect the continuous evolution of two-phase flow, an experimental version of TRACE is being developed which implements the interfacial area transport equation (IATE) to replace the flow regime based approach. Dynamic estimation of a i is provided through the use of mechanistic models for bubble coalescence and disintegration. To account for the differences in bubble interactions and drag forces, two-group bubble transport is sought. As such, Group 1 accounts for the transport of spherical and distorted bubbles, while Group 2 accounts for the cap, slug, and churn-turbulent bubbles. Based on this categorization, a two-group IATE applicable to the range of dispersed two-phase flows has been previously developed. Recently, a one-group, one-dimensional, adiabatic IATE has been implemented into the TRACE code with mechanistic models accounting for: (1) bubble breakup due to turbulent impact of an eddy on a bubble, (2) bubble coalescence due to random collision driven by turbulent eddies, and (3) bubble coalescence due to the acceleration of a bubble in the wake region of a preceding bubble. To demonstrate the enhancement of the code's capability using the IATE, experimental data for a i , void fraction, and bubble velocity measured by a multi-sensor conductivity probe are compared to both the IATE and flow regime based predictions. In total, 50 air-water vertical co-current upward and downward bubbly flow conditions in pipes with diameters ranging from 2.54 to 20.32 cm are evaluated. It is found that TRACE, using the conventional flow regime relation, always underestimates a i . Moreover, the axial trend of the a i prediction is always quasi-linear because a i in the

Oxytocin receptor gene variation predicts subjective responses to MDMA.

Science.gov (United States)

Bershad, Anya K; Weafer, Jessica J; Kirkpatrick, Matthew G; Wardle, Margaret C; Miller, Melissa A; de Wit, Harriet

2016-12-01

3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "ecstasy") enhances desire to socialize and feelings of empathy, which are thought to be related to increased oxytocin levels. Thus, variation in the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) may influence responses to the drug. Here, we examined the influence of a single OXTR nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) on responses to MDMA in humans. Based on findings that carriers of the A allele at rs53576 exhibit reduced sensitivity to oxytocin-induced social behavior, we hypothesized that these individuals would show reduced subjective responses to MDMA, including sociability. In this three-session, double blind, within-subjects study, healthy volunteers with past MDMA experience (N = 68) received a MDMA (0, 0.75 mg/kg, and 1.5 mg/kg) and provided self-report ratings of sociability, anxiety, and drug effects. These responses were examined in relation to rs53576. MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) did not increase sociability in individuals with the A/A genotype as it did in G allele carriers. The genotypic groups did not differ in responses at the lower MDMA dose, or in cardiovascular or other subjective responses. These findings are consistent with the idea that MDMA-induced sociability is mediated by oxytocin, and that variation in the oxytocin receptor gene may influence responses to the drug.

Modelling of individual subject ozone exposure response kinetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Schelegle, Edward S; Adams, William C; Walby, William F; Marion, M Susan

2012-06-01

A better understanding of individual subject ozone (O(3)) exposure response kinetics will provide insight into how to improve models used in the risk assessment of ambient ozone exposure. To develop a simple two compartment exposure-response model that describes individual subject decrements in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)) induced by the acute inhalation of O(3) lasting up to 8 h. FEV(1) measurements of 220 subjects who participated in 14 previously completed studies were fit to the model using both particle swarm and nonlinear least squares optimization techniques to identify three subject-specific coefficients producing minimum "global" and local errors, respectively. Observed and predicted decrements in FEV(1) of the 220 subjects were used for validation of the model. Further validation was provided by comparing the observed O(3)-induced FEV(1) decrements in an additional eight studies with predicted values obtained using model coefficients estimated from the 220 subjects used in cross validation. Overall the individual subject measured and modeled FEV(1) decrements were highly correlated (mean R(2) of 0.69 ± 0.24). In addition, it was shown that a matrix of individual subject model coefficients can be used to predict the mean and variance of group decrements in FEV(1). This modeling approach provides insight into individual subject O(3) exposure response kinetics and provides a potential starting point for improving the risk assessment of environmental O(3) exposure.

Developing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based model for predicting water table depth in agricultural areas

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jianfeng; Zhu, Yan; Zhang, Xiaoping; Ye, Ming; Yang, Jinzhong

2018-06-01

Predicting water table depth over the long-term in agricultural areas presents great challenges because these areas have complex and heterogeneous hydrogeological characteristics, boundary conditions, and human activities; also, nonlinear interactions occur among these factors. Therefore, a new time series model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), was developed in this study as an alternative to computationally expensive physical models. The proposed model is composed of an LSTM layer with another fully connected layer on top of it, with a dropout method applied in the first LSTM layer. In this study, the proposed model was applied and evaluated in five sub-areas of Hetao Irrigation District in arid northwestern China using data of 14 years (2000-2013). The proposed model uses monthly water diversion, evaporation, precipitation, temperature, and time as input data to predict water table depth. A simple but effective standardization method was employed to pre-process data to ensure data on the same scale. 14 years of data are separated into two sets: training set (2000-2011) and validation set (2012-2013) in the experiment. As expected, the proposed model achieves higher R2 scores (0.789-0.952) in water table depth prediction, when compared with the results of traditional feed-forward neural network (FFNN), which only reaches relatively low R2 scores (0.004-0.495), proving that the proposed model can preserve and learn previous information well. Furthermore, the validity of the dropout method and the proposed model's architecture are discussed. Through experimentation, the results show that the dropout method can prevent overfitting significantly. In addition, comparisons between the R2 scores of the proposed model and Double-LSTM model (R2 scores range from 0.170 to 0.864), further prove that the proposed model's architecture is reasonable and can contribute to a strong learning ability on time series data. Thus, one can conclude that the proposed model can

Distributed Model Predictive Load Frequency Control of Multi-area Power System with DFIGs

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yi Zhang; Xiangjie Liu; Bin Qu

2017-01-01

Reliable load frequency control(LFC) is crucial to the operation and design of modern electric power systems. Considering the LFC problem of a four-area interconnected power system with wind turbines, this paper presents a distributed model predictive control(DMPC) based on coordination scheme.The proposed algorithm solves a series of local optimization problems to minimize a performance objective for each control area. The generation rate constraints(GRCs), load disturbance changes, and the wind speed constraints are considered. Furthermore, the DMPC algorithm may reduce the impact of the randomness and intermittence of wind turbine effectively. A performance comparison between the proposed controller with and without the participation of the wind turbines is carried out. Analysis and simulation results show possible improvements on closed–loop performance, and computational burden with the physical constraints.

NOAA ESRI Grid - seafloor hardbottom occurrence predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents hard bottom occurrence predictions from a spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This model builds upon the...

Genetic structure and genetic diversity of Swietenia macrophylla in areas subjected to selective logging in Quintana Roo, Mexico

OpenAIRE

Alcalá, Raúl Ernesto; Cruz, Silvia De la; Gutiérrez-Granados, Gabriel

2015-01-01

The hypothesis that selective logging has a negative effect by altering the genetic parameters of tropical tree species was evaluated. The genetic diversity and genetic structure between adult trees (N = 47) and saplings (N = 50) of Swietenia macrophylla were contrasted within an area subjected to selective logging in the Mayan zone. Although differences in the number of alleles and in their frequencies were detected between both groups, the observed and expected heterozygosity and the coeffi...

Predicting grizzly bear density in western North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Mowat, Garth; Heard, Douglas C; Schwarz, Carl J

2013-01-01

Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend.

Predicting grizzly bear density in western North America.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garth Mowat

Full Text Available Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend.

Alzheimer Disease and Behavioral Variant Frontotemporal Dementia: Automatic Classification Based on Cortical Atrophy for Single-Subject Diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Möller, Christiane; Pijnenburg, Yolande A L; van der Flier, Wiesje M; Versteeg, Adriaan; Tijms, Betty; de Munck, Jan C; Hafkemeijer, Anne; Rombouts, Serge A R B; van der Grond, Jeroen; van Swieten, John; Dopper, Elise; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; Vrenken, Hugo; Wink, Alle Meije

2016-06-01

Purpose To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of an image-based classifier to distinguish between Alzheimer disease (AD) and behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD) in individual patients by using gray matter (GM) density maps computed from standard T1-weighted structural images obtained with multiple imagers and with independent training and prediction data. Materials and Methods The local institutional review board approved the study. Eighty-four patients with AD, 51 patients with bvFTD, and 94 control subjects were divided into independent training (n = 115) and prediction (n = 114) sets with identical diagnosis and imager type distributions. Training of a support vector machine (SVM) classifier used diagnostic status and GM density maps and produced voxelwise discrimination maps. Discriminant function analysis was used to estimate suitability of the extracted weights for single-subject classification in the prediction set. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were calculated for image-based classifiers and neuropsychological z scores. Results Training accuracy of the SVM was 85% for patients with AD versus control subjects, 72% for patients with bvFTD versus control subjects, and 79% for patients with AD versus patients with bvFTD (P ≤ .029). Single-subject diagnosis in the prediction set when using the discrimination maps yielded accuracies of 88% for patients with AD versus control subjects, 85% for patients with bvFTD versus control subjects, and 82% for patients with AD versus patients with bvFTD, with a good to excellent AUC (range, 0.81-0.95; P ≤ .001). Machine learning-based categorization of AD versus bvFTD based on GM density maps outperforms classification based on neuropsychological test results. Conclusion The SVM can be used in single-subject discrimination and can help the clinician arrive at a diagnosis. The SVM can be used to distinguish disease-specific GM patterns in patients with AD

Earthquake prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, P.L.

1978-01-01

The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

Prediction of interfacial area transport in a scaled 8×8 BWR rod bundle

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, X.; Schlegel, J.P.; Liu, Y.; Paranjape, S.; Hibiki, T.; Ishii, M. [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Dr., West Lafayette, IN 47907-2017 (United States); Bajorek, S.; Ireland, A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

2016-12-15

In the two-fluid model, it is important to give an accurate prediction for the interfacial area concentration. In order to achieve this goal, the interfacial area transport equation has been developed. This study focuses on the benchmark of IATE performance in a rod bundle geometry. A set of interfacial area concentration source and sink term models are proposed for a rod bundle geometry based on the confined channel IATE model. This model was selected as a basis because of the relative similarity of the two geometries. Benchmarking of the new model with interfacial area concentration data in an 8×8 rod bundle test section which has been scaled from an actual BWR fuel bundle is performed. The model shows good agreement in bubbly and cap-bubbly flows, which are similar in many types of geometries, while it shows some discrepancy in churn-turbulent flow regime. This discrepancy may be due to the geometrical differences between the actual rod bundle test facility and the facility used to collect the data which benchmarked the original source and sink models.

Is Subjective Status Influenced by Psychosocial Factors?

OpenAIRE

Lundberg, Johanna; Kristenson, Margareta

2008-01-01

Objective Associations between subjective status and health are still relatively unexplored. This study aimed at testing whether subjective status is uniquely confounded by psychosocial factors compared to objective status, and what factors that may predict subjective status. Design A cross-sectional analysis of a population-based, random sample of 795 middle-aged men and women from the southeast of Sweden. Questionnaires included subjective status, objective measures of socioeconomic status,...

Comparison between the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory: predicting incontinence prevention behaviour in post-partum women.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolman, M; Chase, J

1996-08-01

A small-scale study was undertaken to test the relative predictive power of the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory for the uptake of a behaviour (pelvic floor exercises) to reduce post-partum urinary incontinence in primigravida females. A structured questionnaire was used to gather data relevant to both models from a sample antenatal and postnatal primigravida women. Questions examined the perceived probability of becoming incontinent, the perceived (dis)utility of incontinence, the perceived probability of pelvic floor exercises preventing future urinary incontinence, the costs and benefits of performing pelvic floor exercises and sources of information and knowledge about incontinence. Multiple regression analysis focused on whether or not respondents intended to perform pelvic floor exercises and the factors influencing their decisions. Aggregated data were analysed to compare the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory directly.

Limited Sampling Strategy for Accurate Prediction of Pharmacokinetics of Saroglitazar: A 3-point Linear Regression Model Development and Successful Prediction of Human Exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Joshi, Shuchi N; Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Parmar, Deven V

2018-03-01

Our aim was to develop and validate the extrapolative performance of a regression model using a limited sampling strategy for accurate estimation of the area under the plasma concentration versus time curve for saroglitazar. Healthy subject pharmacokinetic data from a well-powered food-effect study (fasted vs fed treatments; n = 50) was used in this work. The first 25 subjects' serial plasma concentration data up to 72 hours and corresponding AUC 0-t (ie, 72 hours) from the fasting group comprised a training dataset to develop the limited sampling model. The internal datasets for prediction included the remaining 25 subjects from the fasting group and all 50 subjects from the fed condition of the same study. The external datasets included pharmacokinetic data for saroglitazar from previous single-dose clinical studies. Limited sampling models were composed of 1-, 2-, and 3-concentration-time points' correlation with AUC 0-t of saroglitazar. Only models with regression coefficients (R 2 ) >0.90 were screened for further evaluation. The best R 2 model was validated for its utility based on mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error. Both correlations between predicted and observed AUC 0-t of saroglitazar and verification of precision and bias using Bland-Altman plot were carried out. None of the evaluated 1- and 2-concentration-time points models achieved R 2 > 0.90. Among the various 3-concentration-time points models, only 4 equations passed the predefined criterion of R 2 > 0.90. Limited sampling models with time points 0.5, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9323) and 0.75, 2, and 8 hours (R 2 = 0.9375) were validated. Mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error were prediction of saroglitazar. The same models, when applied to the AUC 0-t prediction of saroglitazar sulfoxide, showed mean prediction error, mean absolute prediction error, and root mean square error model predicts the exposure of

Development of nondestructive method for prediction of crack instability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schroeder, J.L.; Eylon, D.; Shell, E.B.; Matikas, T.E.

2000-01-01

A method to characterize the deformation zone at a crack tip and predict upcoming fracture under load using white light interference microscopy was developed and studied. Cracks were initiated in notched Ti-6Al-4V specimens through fatigue loading. Following crack initiation, specimens were subjected to static loading during in-situ observation of the deformation area ahead of the crack. Nondestructive in-situ observations were performed using white light interference microscopy. Profilometer measurements quantified the area, volume, and shape of the deformation ahead of the crack front. Results showed an exponential relationship between the area and volume of deformation and the stress intensity factor of the cracked alloy. These findings also indicate that it is possible to determine a critical rate of change in deformation versus the stress intensity factor that can predict oncoming catastrophic failure. In addition, crack front deformation zones were measured as a function of time under sustained load, and crack tip deformation zone enlargement over time was observed

Predicted costs of environmental controls for a commercial oil shale industry. Volume II. A subjective self-assessment of uncertainty in the predicted costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jovanovich, A.P.; Stone, M.L.; Taylor, G.C.

1979-07-01

The uncertainties in Volume I without extensive additional engineering effort were identified and quantified. Substantial uncertainty was found in several critical variables, allowing a broad range of possible values. Calculations of the cost impact associated with such broad ranges, however, did not always result in significant differences. Seven major areas of pollution control activity were judged to warrant the assessment effort. Three of these areas were found to contain significant uncertainty and additional research is suggested. These areas are: H/sub 2/S removal from the retort gas stream (Stretford process); organic removal from process wastewaters (bio-oxidation or other alternatives); and slurry backfilling of spent Modified In Situ (MIS) retorts. The overall results of the assessment and analysis process are summarized in Table 1-1 in terms of total cost for pollution control. The distributions have been divided into three ranges in this table. A center range is given which contains 80% to 90% probability, and the costs outside this range with probabilities are given. The full distributions can be found in Section 5.0. The subjective probability distributions are a quantification of opinion. The probability of encountering costs below the low figure or above the high figure for each process and scenario is judged to be nearly zero.

Evolving Evidence for the Value of Neuroimaging Methods and Biological Markers in Subjects Categorized with Subjective Cognitive Decline.

Science.gov (United States)

Lista, Simone; Molinuevo, Jose L; Cavedo, Enrica; Rami, Lorena; Amouyel, Philippe; Teipel, Stefan J; Garaci, Francesco; Toschi, Nicola; Habert, Marie-Odile; Blennow, Kaj; Zetterberg, Henrik; O'Bryant, Sid E; Johnson, Leigh; Galluzzi, Samantha; Bokde, Arun L W; Broich, Karl; Herholz, Karl; Bakardjian, Hovagim; Dubois, Bruno; Jessen, Frank; Carrillo, Maria C; Aisen, Paul S; Hampel, Harald

2015-09-24

There is evolving evidence that individuals categorized with subjective cognitive decline (SCD) are potentially at higher risk for developing objective and progressive cognitive impairment compared to cognitively healthy individuals without apparent subjective complaints. Interestingly, SCD, during advancing preclinical Alzheimer's disease (AD), may denote very early, subtle cognitive decline that cannot be identified using established standardized tests of cognitive performance. The substantial heterogeneity of existing SCD-related research data has led the Subjective Cognitive Decline Initiative (SCD-I) to accomplish an international consensus on the definition of a conceptual research framework on SCD in preclinical AD. In the area of biological markers, the cerebrospinal fluid signature of AD has been reported to be more prevalent in subjects with SCD compared to healthy controls; moreover, there is a pronounced atrophy, as demonstrated by magnetic resonance imaging, and an increased hypometabolism, as revealed by positron emission tomography, in characteristic brain regions affected by AD. In addition, SCD individuals carrying an apolipoprotein ɛ4 allele are more likely to display AD-phenotypic alterations. The urgent requirement to detect and diagnose AD as early as possible has led to the critical examination of the diagnostic power of biological markers, neurophysiology, and neuroimaging methods for AD-related risk and clinical progression in individuals defined with SCD. Observational studies on the predictive value of SCD for developing AD may potentially be of practical value, and an evidence-based, validated, qualified, and fully operationalized concept may inform clinical diagnostic practice and guide earlier designs in future therapy trials.

Improved Storm Monitoring and Prediction for the San Francisco Bay Area

Science.gov (United States)

Cifelli, R.; Chandrasekar, V.; Anderson, M.; Davis, G.

2017-12-01

The Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) System is a multi-faceted project to improve precipitation and hydrologic monitoring, prediction, and decision support for the San Francisco Bay Area. The Bay Area faces a multitude of threats from extreme events, including disrupted transportation from flooded roads and railroad lines, water management challenges related to storm water, river and reservoir management and storm-related damage demanding emergency response. The threats occur on spatial scales ranging from local communities to the entire region and time scales ranging from hours to days. These challenges will be exacerbated by future sea level rise, more extreme weather events and increased vulnerabilities. AQPI is a collaboration of federal, state and local governments with assistance from the research community. Led by NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, in partnership with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, USGS, and Scripps, AQPI is a four-year effort funded in part by a grant from the California Department of Water Resource's Integrated Regional Water Management Program. The Sonoma County Water Agency is serving as the local sponsor of the project. Other local participants include the Santa Clara Valley Water District, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, and the Bay Area Flood Protection Agencies Association. AQPI will provide both improved observing capabilities and a suite of numerical forecast models to produce accurate and timely information for benefit of flood management, emergency response, water quality, ecosystem services, water supply and transportation management for the Bay Area. The resulting information will support decision making to mitigate flood risks, secure water supplies, minimize water quality impacts to the Bay from combined sewer overflows, and have improved lead-time on coastal and Bay inundation from extreme storms like Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The project is expected to

Magnetic Resonance Volumetry: Prediction of Subjective Memory Complaints and Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Associations with Genetic and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

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Sigbjørn Rogne

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Background/Aims: Subjective memory complaints (SMC are strong predictors of mild cognitive impairment (MCI and subsequent Alzheimer’s disease. Our aims were to see if fully automated cerebral MR volume measurements could distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls, and if probable parental late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD, apolipoprotein E ε4 genotype, total plasma homocysteine, and cardiovascular risk factors were associated with MR volumetric findings. Methods: 198 stroke-free subjects comprised the control (n = 58, the SMC (n = 25 and the MCI (n = 115 groups. Analysis of covariance and receiver operating characteristic curve was used to see if MR volumetry distinguished subjects with SMC and MCI from controls. Results: Subjects with SMC and MCI had significantly larger lateral ventricles and smaller hippocampal volumes than controls. The area under the curve in subjects with SMC and MCI compared to that of controls was less than 0.68 for all volumes of intracranial structures. There was an interaction between sex and probable parental LOAD for hippocampal volume, with a significant association between probable parental LOAD and hippocampal volume in women. Conclusions: Fully automated MR volumetry can distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls in a general population, but insufficiently to assume a clear clinical role. Research on sporadic LOAD might benefit from a sex-specific search for genetic risk factors.

Self-stimulating rats combine subjective reward magnitude and subjective reward rate multiplicatively.

Science.gov (United States)

Leon, M I; Gallistel, C R

1998-07-01

For rats that bar pressed for intracranial electrical stimulation in a 2-lever matching paradigm with concurrent variable interval schedules of reward, the authors found that the time allocation ratio is based on a multiplicative combination of the ratio of subjective reward magnitudes and the ratio of the rates of reward. Multiplicative combining was observed in a range covering approximately 2 orders of magnitude in the ratio of the rates of reward from about 1:10 to 10:1) and an order of magnitude change in the size of rewards. After determining the relation between the pulse frequency of stimulation and subjective reward magnitude, the authors were able to predict from knowledge of the subjective magnitudes of the rewards and the obtained relative rates of reward the subject's time allocation ratio over a range in which it varied by more than 3 orders of magnitude.

Assessing the Implementation Fidelity of a School-Based Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility Program in Physical Education and Other Subject Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Escartí, Amparo; Liops-Goig, Ramon; Wright, Paul M.

2018-01-01

Purpose: The Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility (TPSR) model was developed to foster responsibility and teach life skills that transfer to various settings. The purpose of this study was to assess the implementation fidelity of a school-based TPSR program in physical education and other subject areas. Method: Systematic observation was…

Limited sampling strategies drawn within 3 hours postdose poorly predict mycophenolic acid area-under-the-curve after enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Winter, B.C. de; Gelder, T. van; Mathôt, R.A.A.; Glander, P.; Tedesco-Silva, H.; Hilbrands, L.B.; Budde, K.; Hest, R.M. van

2009-01-01

Previous studies predicted that limited sampling strategies (LSS) for estimation of mycophenolic acid (MPA) area-under-the-curve (AUC(0-12)) after ingestion of enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) using a clinically feasible sampling scheme may have poor predictive performance. Failure of

Artificial neural network for prediction of the area under the disease progress curve of tomato late blight

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Daniel Pedrosa Alves

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Artificial neural networks (ANN are computational models inspired by the neural systems of living beings capable of learning from examples and using them to solve problems such as non-linear prediction, and pattern recognition, in addition to several other applications. In this study, ANN were used to predict the value of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC for the tomato late blight pathosystem. The AUDPC is widely used by epidemiologic studies of polycyclic diseases, especially those regarding quantitative resistance of genotypes. However, a series of six evaluations over time is necessary to obtain the final area value for this pathosystem. This study aimed to investigate the utilization of ANN to construct an AUDPC in the tomato late blight pathosystem, using a reduced number of severity evaluations. For this, four independent experiments were performed giving a total of 1836 plants infected with Phytophthora infestans pathogen. They were assessed every three days, comprised six opportunities and AUDPC calculations were performed by the conventional method. After the ANN were created it was possible to predict the AUDPC with correlations of 0.97 and 0.84 when compared to conventional methods, using 50 % and 67 % of the genotype evaluations, respectively. When using the ANN created in an experiment to predict the AUDPC of the other experiments the average correlation was 0.94, with two evaluations, 0.96, with three evaluations, between the predicted values of the ANN and they were observed in six evaluations. We present in this study a new paradigm for the use of AUDPC information in tomato experiments faced with P. infestans. This new proposed paradigm might be adapted to different pathosystems.

Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fine, Daniel H; Markowitz, Kenneth; Fairlie, Karen; Tischio-Bereski, Debbie; Ferrandiz, Javier; Godboley, Dipti; Furgang, David; Gunsolley, John; Best, Al

2014-01-01

Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL) in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa), the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF). Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; p<0.01). MIP-1α was elevated 13-fold, 6 months prior to BL. When MIP-1α levels were set at 40 pg/ml, 98% of healthy sites were below that level (Specificity); whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity), with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; p<0.0001; 95% C.I. = 42.5-52.7). MIP-1α consistently showed elevated levels as a biomarker for BL in both saliva and GCF, 6 months prior to BL. MIP-1α continues to demonstrate its strong candidacy as a diagnostic biomarker for both subject and site vulnerability to BL.

Flow area optimization in point to area or area to point flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghodoossi, Lotfollah; Egrican, Niluefer

2003-01-01

This paper deals with the constructal theory of generation of shape and structure in flow systems connecting one point to a finite size area. The flow direction may be either from the point to the area or the area to the point. The formulation of the problem remains the same if the flow direction is reversed. Two models are used in optimization of the point to area or area to point flow problem: cost minimization and revenue maximization. The cost minimization model enables one to predict the shape of the optimized flow areas, but the geometric sizes of the flow areas are not predictable. That is, as an example, if the area of flow is a rectangle with a fixed area size, optimization of the point to area or area to point flow problem by using the cost minimization model will only predict the height/length ratio of the rectangle not the height and length itself. By using the revenue maximization model in optimization of the flow problems, all optimized geometric aspects of the interested flow areas will be derived as well. The aim of this paper is to optimize the point to area or area to point flow problems in various elemental flow area shapes and various structures of the flow system (various combinations of elemental flow areas) by using the revenue maximization model. The elemental flow area shapes used in this paper are either rectangular or triangular. The forms of the flow area structure, made up of an assembly of optimized elemental flow areas to obtain bigger flow areas, are rectangle-in-rectangle, rectangle-in-triangle, triangle-in-triangle and triangle-in-rectangle. The global maximum revenue, revenue collected per unit flow area and the shape and sizes of each flow area structure have been derived in optimized conditions. The results for each flow area structure have been compared with the results of the other structures to determine the structure that provides better performance. The conclusion is that the rectangle-in-triangle flow area structure

An artificial neural network to predict resting energy expenditure in obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Disse, Emmanuel; Ledoux, Séverine; Bétry, Cécile; Caussy, Cyrielle; Maitrepierre, Christine; Coupaye, Muriel; Laville, Martine; Simon, Chantal

2017-09-01

The resting energy expenditure (REE) determination is important in nutrition for adequate dietary prescription. The gold standard i.e. indirect calorimetry is not available in clinical settings. Thus, several predictive equations have been developed, but they lack of accuracy in subjects with extreme weight including obese populations. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are useful predictive tools in the area of artificial intelligence, used in numerous clinical fields. The aim of this study was to determine the relevance of ANN in predicting REE in obesity. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) feed-forward neural network with a back propagation algorithm was created and cross-validated in a cohort of 565 obese subjects (BMI within 30-50 kg m -2 ) with weight, height, sex and age as clinical inputs and REE measured by indirect calorimetry as output. The predictive performances of ANN were compared to those of 23 predictive REE equations in the training set and in two independent sets of 100 and 237 obese subjects for external validation. Among the 23 established prediction equations for REE evaluated, the Harris & Benedict equations recalculated by Roza were the most accurate for the obese population, followed by the USA DRI, Müller and the original Harris & Benedict equations. The final 5-fold cross-validated three-layer 4-3-1 feed-forward back propagation ANN model developed in that study improved precision and accuracy of REE prediction over linear equations (precision = 68.1%, MAPE = 8.6% and RMSPE = 210 kcal/d), independently from BMI subgroups within 30-50 kg m -2 . External validation confirmed the better predictive performances of ANN model (precision = 73% and 65%, MAPE = 7.7% and 8.6%, RMSPE = 187 kcal/d and 200 kcal/d in the 2 independent datasets) for the prediction of REE in obese subjects. We developed and validated an ANN model for the prediction of REE in obese subjects that is more precise and accurate than established REE predictive

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading. Volume 2, Part 1; Appendices

Science.gov (United States)

Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O.; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

2015-01-01

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approximately 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Improved USLE-K factor prediction: A case study on water erosion areas in China

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Bin Wang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Soil erodibility (K-factor is an essential factor in soil erosion prediction and conservation practises. The major obstacles to any accurate, large-scale soil erodibility estimation are the lack of necessary data on soil characteristics and the misuse of variable K-factor calculators. In this study, we assessed the performance of available erodibility estimators Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE, Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC and the Geometric Mean Diameter based (Dg model for different geographic regions based on the Chinese soil erodibility database (CSED. Results showed that previous estimators overestimated almost all K-values. Furthermore, only the USLE and Dg approaches could be directly and reliably applicable to black and loess soil regions. Based on the nonlinear best fitting techniques, we improved soil erodibility prediction by combining Dg and soil organic matter (SOM. The NSE, R2 and RE values were 0.94, 0.67 and 9.5% after calibrating the results independently; similar model performance was showed for the validation process. The results obtained via the proposed approach were more accurate that the former K-value predictions. Moreover, those improvements allowed us to effectively establish a regional soil erodibility map (1:250,000 scale of water erosion areas in China. The mean K-value of Chinese water erosion regions was 0.0321 (t ha h·(ha MJ mm−1 with a standard deviation of 0.0107 (t ha h·(ha MJ mm−1; K-values present a decreasing trend from North to South in water erosion areas in China. The yield soil erodibility dataset also satisfactorily corresponded to former K-values from different scales (local, regional, and national.

Neural correlates of auditory temporal predictions during sensorimotor synchronization

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Nadine ePecenka

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Musical ensemble performance requires temporally precise interpersonal action coordination. To play in synchrony, ensemble musicians presumably rely on anticipatory mechanisms that enable them to predict the timing of sounds produced by co-performers. Previous studies have shown that individuals differ in their ability to predict upcoming tempo changes in paced finger-tapping tasks (indexed by cross-correlations between tap timing and pacing events and that the degree of such prediction influences the accuracy of sensorimotor synchronization (SMS and interpersonal coordination in dyadic tapping tasks. The current functional magnetic resonance imaging study investigated the neural correlates of auditory temporal predictions during SMS in a within-subject design. Hemodynamic responses were recorded from 18 musicians while they tapped in synchrony with auditory sequences containing gradual tempo changes under conditions of varying cognitive load (achieved by a simultaneous visual n-back working-memory task comprising three levels of difficulty: observation only, 1-back, and 2-back object comparisons. Prediction ability during SMS decreased with increasing cognitive load. Results of a parametric analysis revealed that the generation of auditory temporal predictions during SMS recruits (1 a distributed network in cortico-cerebellar motor-related brain areas (left dorsal premotor and motor cortex, right lateral cerebellum, SMA proper and bilateral inferior parietal cortex and (2 medial cortical areas (medial prefrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex. While the first network is presumably involved in basic sensory prediction, sensorimotor integration, motor timing, and temporal adaptation, activation in the second set of areas may be related to higher-level social-cognitive processes elicited during action coordination with auditory signals that resemble music performed by human agents.

A Bayesian truth serum for subjective data.

Science.gov (United States)

Prelec, Drazen

2004-10-15

Subjective judgments, an essential information source for science and policy, are problematic because there are no public criteria for assessing judgmental truthfulness. I present a scoring method for eliciting truthful subjective data in situations where objective truth is unknowable. The method assigns high scores not to the most common answers but to the answers that are more common than collectively predicted, with predictions drawn from the same population. This simple adjustment in the scoring criterion removes all bias in favor of consensus: Truthful answers maximize expected score even for respondents who believe that their answer represents a minority view.

Fingersomatotopy in area 3b: an fMRI-study

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Rosén Birgitta

2004-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The primary sensory cortex (S1 in the postcentral gyrus is comprised of four areas that each contain a body map, where the representation of the hand is located with the thumb most laterally, anteriorly and inferiorly and the little finger most medially, posteriorly and superiorly. Previous studies on somatotopy using functional MRI have either used low field strength, have included a small number of subjects or failed to attribute activations to any area within S1. In the present study we included twenty subjects, who were investigated at 3 Tesla (T. We focused specifically on Brodmann area 3b, which neurons have discrete receptive fields with a potentially more clearcut somatotopic organisation. The spatial distribution for all fingers' peak activation was determined and group as well as individual analysis was performed. Results Activation maps from 18 subjects were of adequate quality; in 17 subjects activations were present for all fingers and these data were further analysed. In the group analysis the thumb was located most laterally, anteriorly and inferiorly with the other fingers sequentially positioned more medially, posteriorly and superiorly. At the individual level this somatotopic relationship was present for the thumb and little finger, with a higher variability for the fingers in between. The Euclidian distance between the first and fifth finger was 17.2 mm, between the first and second finger 10.6 mm and between the remaining fingers on average 6.3 mm. Conclusion Results from the group analysis, that is both the location of the fingers and the Euclidian distances, are well comparable to results from previous studies using a wide range of modalities. On the subject level the spatial localisation of the fingers showed a less stringent somatotopic order so that the location of a finger in a single subject cannot be predicted from the group result.

Group-regularized individual prediction: theory and application to pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindquist, Martin A; Krishnan, Anjali; López-Solà, Marina; Jepma, Marieke; Woo, Choong-Wan; Koban, Leonie; Roy, Mathieu; Atlas, Lauren Y; Schmidt, Liane; Chang, Luke J; Reynolds Losin, Elizabeth A; Eisenbarth, Hedwig; Ashar, Yoni K; Delk, Elizabeth; Wager, Tor D

2017-01-15

Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) has become an important tool for identifying brain representations of psychological processes and clinical outcomes using fMRI and related methods. Such methods can be used to predict or 'decode' psychological states in individual subjects. Single-subject MVPA approaches, however, are limited by the amount and quality of individual-subject data. In spite of higher spatial resolution, predictive accuracy from single-subject data often does not exceed what can be accomplished using coarser, group-level maps, because single-subject patterns are trained on limited amounts of often-noisy data. Here, we present a method that combines population-level priors, in the form of biomarker patterns developed on prior samples, with single-subject MVPA maps to improve single-subject prediction. Theoretical results and simulations motivate a weighting based on the relative variances of biomarker-based prediction-based on population-level predictive maps from prior groups-and individual-subject, cross-validated prediction. Empirical results predicting pain using brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis (single-trial prediction) across 6 studies (N=180 participants) confirm the theoretical predictions. Regularization based on a population-level biomarker-in this case, the Neurologic Pain Signature (NPS)-improved single-subject prediction accuracy compared with idiographic maps based on the individuals' data alone. The regularization scheme that we propose, which we term group-regularized individual prediction (GRIP), can be applied broadly to within-person MVPA-based prediction. We also show how GRIP can be used to evaluate data quality and provide benchmarks for the appropriateness of population-level maps like the NPS for a given individual or study. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial variability of soil potassium in sugarcane areas subjected to the application of vinasse

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LAÉRCIO A. DE CARVALHO

2014-12-01

Full Text Available When deposited on land the vinasse can promote improvement in fertility, however, often fertilizer application occurs in areas considered homogeneous, without taking into account the variability of the soil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of vinasse application on potassium content in two classes of soils cultivated with sugarcane, and characterize the spatial variability of soil using geostatistical techniques. In the 2010 and 2011 crop year, soil samples were collected from an experimental grid at 0-0.2 and 0.2-0.4 m depth in three soils cultivated with sugarcane, totaling 90 samplings in each grid, for the determination of pH, calcium (Ca, magnesium (Mg, potassium (K, phosphorus (P, aluminum (Al and potential acidity (H + Al. The data have been submitted to analysis of descriptive statistics and the K attribute was subjected to geostatistical analysis. The coefficient of variation indicated medium and high variability of K for the three soils. The results showed that the spatial dependence of K increased in depth to FRce and decreased to PHlv, indicating that the attribute could have followed the pattern of distribution of clay in depth. The investigation of the spatial variability of K on the surface and subsurface soils provided the definition of management zones with different levels of fertility, which can be organized into sub-areas for a more efficient management of the resources and the environment.

GIS Based Distributed Runoff Predictions in Variable Source Area Watersheds Employing the SCS-Curve Number

Science.gov (United States)

Steenhuis, T. S.; Mendoza, G.; Lyon, S. W.; Gerard Marchant, P.; Walter, M. T.; Schneiderman, E.

2003-04-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be ubiquitously used in GIS-BASED water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed within an integrated GIS modeling environment a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Spatial representation of hydrologic processes is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point source pollution. The methodology presented here uses the traditional SCS-CN method to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and uses a topographic index to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was incorporated in an existing GWLF water quality model and applied to sub-watersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State. We found that the distributed CN-VSA approach provided a physically-based method that gives realistic results for watersheds with VSA hydrology.

A Mathematical Method to Calculate Tumor Contact Surface Area: An Effective Parameter to Predict Renal Function after Partial Nephrectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsieh, Po-Fan; Wang, Yu-De; Huang, Chi-Ping; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Yang, Che-Rei; Chen, Guang-Heng; Chang, Chao-Hsiang

2016-07-01

We proposed a mathematical formula to calculate contact surface area between a tumor and renal parenchyma. We examined the applicability of using contact surface area to predict renal function after partial nephrectomy. We performed this retrospective study in patients who underwent partial nephrectomy between January 2012 and December 2014. Based on abdominopelvic computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, we calculated the contact surface area using the formula (2*π*radius*depth) developed by integral calculus. We then evaluated the correlation between contact surface area and perioperative parameters, and compared contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. (Radius/Exophytic/endophytic/Nearness to collecting system/Anterior/Location) score in predicting a reduction in renal function. Overall 35, 26 and 45 patients underwent partial nephrectomy with open, laparoscopic and robotic approaches, respectively. Mean ± SD contact surface area was 30.7±26.1 cm(2) and median (IQR) R.E.N.A.L. score was 7 (2.25). Spearman correlation analysis showed that contact surface area was significantly associated with estimated blood loss (p=0.04), operative time (p=0.04) and percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. score independently affected percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p contact surface area was a better independent predictor of a greater than 10% change in estimated glomerular filtration rate compared to R.E.N.A.L. score (AUC 0.86 vs 0.69). Using this simple mathematical method, contact surface area was associated with surgical outcomes. Compared to R.E.N.A.L. score, contact surface area was a better predictor of functional change after partial nephrectomy. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Simón, Luis; Afonin, Alexandr; López-Díez, Lucía Isabel; González-Miguel, Javier; Morchón, Rodrigo; Carretón, Elena; Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Kartashev, Vladimir; Simón, Fernando

2014-03-01

Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

2012-01-19

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Prediction Over the Evolution of the Health System

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Cătălin Ovidiu BABA

2006-10-01

Full Text Available The predictive analysis included in the present work begins with identifying the main areas of interest for the future situation of the public health system in Romania, or in any other European state for that matter; these areas of interest relate to the most arduously debated issues, either on a national level or in the proficient institutions of the European Union. However, as previously argued, we consider such an approach to be insufficient for an appropriate description of the potentialities existing at the level of the health systems; accordingly, we consider more relevant the approach of the prediction of future changes by using four variables that have to do, on the one hand, with all the problems of the national systems of public health, and on the other hand, with offering useful information to all states, irrespective of issues such as differences in giving funds, and/or inconsistencies related to the most prominent subjects.

Prediction of 137Cs and 90Sr accumulation in milk of horses and sheep grazing the area adjacent to the 'Experimental Field' technical area of the Semipalatinsk test site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gontarenko, I.A.; Spiridonov, S.I.; Mukusheva, M.K.

2005-01-01

The paper describes mathematical models for 137 Cs and 90 Sr behavior in body of horses and sheep grazing the area adjacent to the 'Experimental Field' Technical Area of the Semipalatinsk test site. The models were parametrized on the basis of experimental data for those breeds of animals that are currently encountered within the Semipalatinsk test area. The predictive conclusions using devised models have shown that 137 Cs and 90 Sr concentration in milk of horses and sheep grazing the Experimental field are can exceed the adopted standards during a long period of time. (author)

Choice from non-choice: predicting consumer preferences from blood oxygenation level-dependent signals obtained during passive viewing.

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Ifat; Lazzaro, Stephanie C; Rutledge, Robb B; Glimcher, Paul W

2011-01-05

Decision-making is often viewed as a two-stage process, where subjective values are first assigned to each option and then the option of the highest value is selected. Converging evidence suggests that these subjective values are represented in the striatum and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC). A separate line of evidence suggests that activation in the same areas represents the values of rewards even when choice is not required, as in classical conditioning tasks. However, it is unclear whether the same neural mechanism is engaged in both cases. To address this question we measured brain activation with functional magnetic resonance imaging while human subjects passively viewed individual consumer goods. We then sampled activation from predefined regions of interest and used it to predict subsequent choices between the same items made outside of the scanner. Our results show that activation in the striatum and MPFC in the absence of choice predicts subsequent choices, suggesting that these brain areas represent value in a similar manner whether or not choice is required.

Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

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Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

2017-09-01

We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

Facebook Use Predicts Declines in Subjective Well-Being in Young Adults

OpenAIRE

Kross, Ethan; Verduyn, Philippe; Demiralp, Emre; Park, Jiyoung; Lee, David Seungjae; Lin, Natalie; Shablack, Holly; Jonides, John; Ybarra, Oscar

2013-01-01

Over 500 million people interact daily with Facebook. Yet, whether Facebook use influences subjective well-being over time is unknown. We addressed this issue using experience-sampling, the most reliable method for measuring in-vivo behavior and psychological experience. We text-messaged people five times per day for two-weeks to examine how Facebook use influences the two components of subjective well-being: how people feel moment-to-moment and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our re...

Effect of toe-spread-out exercise on hallux valgus angle and cross-sectional area of abductor hallucis muscle in subjects with hallux valgus.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Moon-Hwan; Yi, Chung-Hwi; Weon, Jong-Hyuck; Cynn, Heon-Seock; Jung, Do-Young; Kwon, Oh-Yun

2015-04-01

[Purpose] This study investigated whether the toe-spread-out exercise affects the hallux valgus angle, the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle, and the hallux valgus angle during active abduction. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty-four subjects with hallux valgus were randomly assigned to orthosis and orthosis plus toe-spread-out exercise groups. The orthosis group wore the orthosis for 8 weeks, while the orthosis plus toe-spread-out group also performed the toe-spread-out exercise. The hallux valgus angle, the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle, and the hallux valgus angle during active abduction were measured initially and after 8 weeks by radiography and ultrasonography. [Results] While there were no significant changes in the three parameters in the orthosis group, there were significant differences in the orthosis plus toe-spread-out exercise group after 8 weeks. In addition there were significant differences in the three measures between the two groups. [Conclusion] The toe-spread-out exercise reduces the hallux valgus angle and hallux valgus angle during active abduction, and increases the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle. The toe-spread-out exercise is recommended for patients with mild to moderate hallux valgus.

Response prediction of long flexible risers subject to forced harmonic vibration

OpenAIRE

Riveros, Carlos Alberto; Utsunomiya, Tomoaki; Maeda, Katsuya; Itoh, Kazuaki

2010-01-01

Several research efforts have been directed toward the development of models for response prediction of flexible risers. The main difficulties arise from the fact that the dynamic response of flexible risers involves highly nonlinear behavior and a self-regulated process. This article presents a quasi-steady approach for response prediction of oscillating flexible risers. Amplitude-dependent lift coefficients are considered, as is an increased mean drag coefficient model during synchronizatio...

Simple, spatial and predictive approach for cereal yield prediction in the semi-arid areas

Science.gov (United States)

Toumi, Jihad; Khabba, Said; Er-Raki, Salah; Le page, Michel; Chahbi Bellakanji, Aicha; Lili Chabaane, Zohra; Ezzahar, Jamal; Zribi, Mehrez; Jarlan, Lionel

2016-04-01

The objective is to develop a simple, spatial and predictive approach of dry matter (DM) and grain yield (GY) of cereal in the semi-arid areas. The proposed method is based on the three efficiencies model of Monteith (1972). This approach summarizes the transformation of solar radiation to the dry matter (DM) by the climate (ɛc), interception (ɛi) and conversion (ɛconv) efficiencies. The method combines the maximum of ɛi and ɛconv (noted ɛimax and ɛconvmax) into a single parameter denoted ɛmax, calculating as a function of cumulating growing degree day (CGDD). Also, the stress coefficient ks, which affects the conversion of solar radiation to the biomass was calculated by the surface temperature or the water balance at the root zone. In addition, the expression of ks has been improved by the consideration of the results achieved by deficit irrigation (AquaCrop and STICS models) which showed that the value of ks from 0.7 to 1 didn't affect significantly the cereal production. For the partitioning of the dry matter developed, between straw and grain, the method proposed calculates a variable Harvest Index coefficient (HI). HI is deducted from CGDD and HI0max (maximal final harvest Index in the region of study). Finally, the approach calculates DM depending Satellite Information (NDVI and surface temperature Ts) and climatic data (solar radiation and air temperature). In the case of no availability of Ts, the amount of irrigation is required to calculate ks. Until now, the developed model has been calibrated and validated on the irrigated area R3, located 40 Km east of Marrakech. The evolutions of DM and GY were reproduced satisfactorily. R2 and RMSE are respectively 0.98 and 0.35 t/ha and 0.98 and 0.19 t/ha, respectively. Currently, additional tests are in progress on data relating to the Kairouan plain of Tunisia.

Right Lateral Cerebellum Represents Linguistic Predictability.

Science.gov (United States)

Lesage, Elise; Hansen, Peter C; Miall, R Chris

2017-06-28

Mounting evidence indicates that posterolateral portions of the cerebellum (right Crus I/II) contribute to language processing, but the nature of this role remains unclear. Based on a well-supported theory of cerebellar motor function, which ascribes to the cerebellum a role in short-term prediction through internal modeling, we hypothesize that right cerebellar Crus I/II supports prediction of upcoming sentence content. We tested this hypothesis using event-related fMRI in male and female human subjects by manipulating the predictability of written sentences. Our design controlled for motor planning and execution, as well as for linguistic features and working memory load; it also allowed separation of the prediction interval from the presentation of the final sentence item. In addition, three further fMRI tasks captured semantic, phonological, and orthographic processing to shed light on the nature of the information processed. As hypothesized, activity in right posterolateral cerebellum correlated with the predictability of the upcoming target word. This cerebellar region also responded to prediction error during the outcome of the trial. Further, this region was engaged in phonological, but not semantic or orthographic, processing. This is the first imaging study to demonstrate a right cerebellar contribution in language comprehension independently from motor, cognitive, and linguistic confounds. These results complement our work using other methodologies showing cerebellar engagement in linguistic prediction and suggest that internal modeling of phonological representations aids language production and comprehension. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The cerebellum is traditionally seen as a motor structure that allows for smooth movement by predicting upcoming signals. However, the cerebellum is also consistently implicated in nonmotor functions such as language and working memory. Using fMRI, we identify a cerebellar area that is active when words are predicted and

Hybrid Corporate Performance Prediction Model Considering Technical Capability

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Joonhyuck Lee

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Many studies have tried to predict corporate performance and stock prices to enhance investment profitability using qualitative approaches such as the Delphi method. However, developments in data processing technology and machine-learning algorithms have resulted in efforts to develop quantitative prediction models in various managerial subject areas. We propose a quantitative corporate performance prediction model that applies the support vector regression (SVR algorithm to solve the problem of the overfitting of training data and can be applied to regression problems. The proposed model optimizes the SVR training parameters based on the training data, using the genetic algorithm to achieve sustainable predictability in changeable markets and managerial environments. Technology-intensive companies represent an increasing share of the total economy. The performance and stock prices of these companies are affected by their financial standing and their technological capabilities. Therefore, we apply both financial indicators and technical indicators to establish the proposed prediction model. Here, we use time series data, including financial, patent, and corporate performance information of 44 electronic and IT companies. Then, we predict the performance of these companies as an empirical verification of the prediction performance of the proposed model.

Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel H Fine

Full Text Available Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa, the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF. Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; p<0.01. MIP-1α was elevated 13-fold, 6 months prior to BL. When MIP-1α levels were set at 40 pg/ml, 98% of healthy sites were below that level (Specificity; whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity, with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; p<0.0001; 95% C.I. = 42.5-52.7. MIP-1α consistently showed elevated levels as a biomarker for BL in both saliva and GCF, 6 months prior to BL. MIP-1α continues to demonstrate its strong candidacy as a diagnostic biomarker for both subject and site vulnerability to BL.

Re-evaluation of lung to thorax transverse area ratio immediately before birth in predicting postnatal short-term outcomes of fetuses with isolated left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia: A single center analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kido, Saki; Hidaka, Nobuhiro; Sato, Yuka; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Miyoshi, Kina; Nagata, Kouji; Taguchi, Tomoaki; Kato, Kiyoko

2018-05-01

We aimed to investigate whether the lung-to-thorax transverse area ratio (LTR) immediately before birth is of diagnostic value for the prediction of postnatal short-term outcomes in cases of isolated left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of fetal isolated left-sided CDH managed at our institution between April 2008 and July 2016. We divided the patients into two groups based on LTR immediately before birth, using a cut-off value of 0.08. We compared the proportions of subjects within the two groups who survived until discharge using Fisher's exact test. Further, using Spearman's rank correlation, we assessed whether LTR was correlated with length of stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, and supplemental oxygen. Twenty-nine subjects were included (five with LTR < 0.08, and 24 with LTR ≥ 0.08). The proportion of subjects surviving until discharge was 40% (2/5) for patients with LTR < 0.08, as compared with 96% (23/24) for those with LTR ≥ 0.08. LTR measured immediately before birth was negatively correlated with the postnatal length of stay (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, rs = -0.486), and the duration of supplemental oxygen (rs = -0.537). Further, the duration of mechanical ventilation was longer in patients with a lower LTR value. LTR immediately before birth is useful for the prediction of postnatal short-term outcomes in fetuses with isolated left-sided CDH. In particular, patients with prenatal LTR value less than 0.08 are at increased risk of postnatal death. © 2017 Japanese Teratology Society.

Automaticity and localisation of concurrents predicts colour area activity in grapheme-colour synaesthesia.

Science.gov (United States)

Gould van Praag, Cassandra D; Garfinkel, Sarah; Ward, Jamie; Bor, Daniel; Seth, Anil K

2016-07-29

In grapheme-colour synaesthesia (GCS), the presentation of letters or numbers induces an additional 'concurrent' experience of colour. Early functional MRI (fMRI) investigations of GCS reported activation in colour-selective area V4 during the concurrent experience. However, others have failed to replicate this key finding. We reasoned that individual differences in synaesthetic phenomenology might explain this inconsistency in the literature. To test this hypothesis, we examined fMRI BOLD responses in a group of grapheme-colour synaesthetes (n=20) and matched controls (n=20) while characterising the individual phenomenology of the synaesthetes along dimensions of 'automaticity' and 'localisation'. We used an independent functional localiser to identify colour-selective areas in both groups. Activations in these areas were then assessed during achromatic synaesthesia-inducing, and non-inducing conditions; we also explored whole brain activations, where we sought to replicate the existing literature regarding synaesthesia effects. Controls showed no significant activations in the contrast of inducing > non-inducing synaesthetic stimuli, in colour-selective ROIs or at the whole brain level. In the synaesthete group, we correlated activation within colour-selective ROIs with individual differences in phenomenology using the Coloured Letters and Numbers (CLaN) questionnaire which measures, amongst other attributes, the subjective automaticity/attention in synaesthetic concurrents, and their spatial localisation. Supporting our hypothesis, we found significant correlations between individual measures of synaesthetic phenomenology and BOLD responses in colour-selective areas, when contrasting inducing against non-inducing stimuli. Specifically, left-hemisphere colour area responses were stronger for synaesthetes scoring high on phenomenological localisation and automaticity/attention, while right-hemisphere colour area responses showed a relationship with localisation

Prediction of quantitative intrathoracic fluid volume to diagnose pulmonary oedema using LabVIEW.

Science.gov (United States)

Urooj, Shabana; Khan, M; Ansari, A Q; Lay-Ekuakille, Aimé; Salhan, Ashok K

2012-01-01

Pulmonary oedema is a life-threatening disease that requires special attention in the area of research and clinical diagnosis. Computer-based techniques are rarely used to quantify the intrathoracic fluid volume (IFV) for diagnostic purposes. This paper discusses a software program developed to detect and diagnose pulmonary oedema using LabVIEW. The software runs on anthropometric dimensions and physiological parameters, mainly transthoracic electrical impedance (TEI). This technique is accurate and faster than existing manual techniques. The LabVIEW software was used to compute the parameters required to quantify IFV. An equation relating per cent control and IFV was obtained. The results of predicted TEI and measured TEI were compared with previously reported data to validate the developed program. It was found that the predicted values of TEI obtained from the computer-based technique were much closer to the measured values of TEI. Six new subjects were enrolled to measure and predict transthoracic impedance and hence to quantify IFV. A similar difference was also observed in the measured and predicted values of TEI for the new subjects.

Real - time Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Groundwater in Typical Arid Area Based on SPASS Improvement

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Xiao-ming

2018-03-01

The establishment of traditional groundwater numerical simulation model, parameter identification and inspection process, especially the water level fitting and the actual observation of the value obtained compared to a large error. Based on the SPASS software, a large number of statistical analysis of the numerical simulation results show that the complexity of the terrain in the study area, the distribution of lithology and the influence of the parameters on the groundwater level in the study area have great influence on the groundwater level. Through the multi-factor analysis and adjustment, the simulated groundwater flow and the actual observation are similar. Then, the final result is taken as the standard value, and the groundwater in the study area is simulated and predicted in real time. The simulation results provide technical support for the further development and utilization of the local water resources.

Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ielsch, G.

2001-01-01

Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

Prediction of Advisability of Returning Home Using the Home Care Score

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Akiyoshi Matsugi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The aim of this study was to assess whether the home care score (HCS, which was developed by the Ministry of Health and Welfare in Japan in 1992, is useful for the prediction of advisability of home care. Methods. Subjects living at home and in assisted-living facilities were analyzed. Binominal logistic regression analyses, using age, sex, the functional independence measure score, and the HCS, along with receiver operating characteristic curve analyses, were conducted. Findings/Conclusions. Only HCS was selected for the regression equation. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the area under the curve (0.9, sensitivity (0.82, specificity (0.83, and positive predictive value (0.84 for HCS were higher than those for the functional independence measure, indicating that the HCS is a powerful predictor for advisability of home care. Clinical Relevance. Comprehensive measurements of the condition of provided care and the activities of daily living of the subjects, which are included in the HCS, are required for the prediction of advisability of home care.

Prediction of Advisability of Returning Home Using the Home Care Score

Science.gov (United States)

Matsugi, Akiyoshi; Tani, Keisuke; Tamaru, Yoshiki; Yoshioka, Nami; Yamashita, Akira; Mori, Nobuhiko; Oku, Kosuke; Ikeda, Masashi; Nagano, Kiyoshi

2015-01-01

Purpose. The aim of this study was to assess whether the home care score (HCS), which was developed by the Ministry of Health and Welfare in Japan in 1992, is useful for the prediction of advisability of home care. Methods. Subjects living at home and in assisted-living facilities were analyzed. Binominal logistic regression analyses, using age, sex, the functional independence measure score, and the HCS, along with receiver operating characteristic curve analyses, were conducted. Findings/Conclusions. Only HCS was selected for the regression equation. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the area under the curve (0.9), sensitivity (0.82), specificity (0.83), and positive predictive value (0.84) for HCS were higher than those for the functional independence measure, indicating that the HCS is a powerful predictor for advisability of home care. Clinical Relevance. Comprehensive measurements of the condition of provided care and the activities of daily living of the subjects, which are included in the HCS, are required for the prediction of advisability of home care. PMID:26491568

Multivariable predictive control considering time delay for load-frequency control in multi-area power systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniar Sabah

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a multivariable model based predictive control (MPC is proposed for the solution of load frequency control (LFC in a multi-area interconnected power system. The proposed controller is designed to consider time delay, generation rate constraint and multivariable nature of the LFC system, simultaneously. A new formulation of the MPC is presented to compensate time delay. The generation rate constraint is considered by employing a constrained MPC and economic allocation of the generation is further guaranteed by an innovative modification in the predictive control objective function. The effectiveness of proposed scheme is verified through time-based simulations on the standard 39-bus test system and the responses are then compared with the proportional-integral controller. The evaluation of the results reveals that the proposed control scheme offers satisfactory performance with fast responses.

Subjective well-being amongst community-dwelling elders: what determines satisfaction with life? Findings from the Dublin Healthy Aging Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ní Mhaoláin, Aine M; Gallagher, Damien; O Connell, Henry; Chin, A V; Bruce, Irene; Hamilton, Fiona; Teehee, Erin; Coen, Robert; Coakley, Davis; Cunningham, Conal; Walsh, J B; Lawlor, Brian A

2012-02-01

Life satisfaction is a subjective expression of well-being and successful aging. Subjective well-being is a major determinant of health outcomes in older people. The aim of this study was to determine which factors predicted well-being in older people living in the community as measured by their satisfaction with life. The relationship between life satisfaction, as measured by the Life Satisfaction Index (LSI-A) and physical, cognitive and demographic variables was examined in 466 older people living in the community using a stepwise regression model. Depression, loneliness, neuroticism, extraversion, recent participation in physical activity, age and self-reported exhaustion, were the independent predictors of life satisfaction in our elderly cohort. Subjective well-being, as measured by the Life Satisfaction Scale, is predicted by depression, loneliness, personality traits, recent participation in physical activity and self-reported exhaustion. The mental and emotional status of older individuals, as well as their engagement in physical activity, are as important as physical functionality when it comes to life satisfaction as a measure of well-being and successful aging. These areas represent key targets for intervention.

Inhalation of road dust by human subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Takishima, T; Nakamura, M; Sasaki, M; Miyano, M; Yamaya, M; Sasaki, H

1987-11-01

We measured pneumomagnetic field strength (PMFS) in 42 healthy control subjects living in districts of Northern Japan with low levels of road dust pollution and in 39 healthy subjects living in areas with high levels of road dust pollution. Suspended road dust produced by studded tires increases from 30 micrograms/m3 during the summer season to levels as high as 400 micrograms/m3 during the snow season in the downtown areas of Sendai, Japan. Road dust retained in the lungs, containing 3% iron, was magnetized from the surface of the chest wall, and PMFS was measured. Three to 5 sequential PMFS measurements were made in each subject in March and October of 1984 and 1985, and in March 1986. The PMFS in control subjects in March 1984 was 37 +/- 14 pico-Tesla (mean +/- SD) and did not significantly differ from the PMFS in October 1984 or that in March 1985. In March 1984, the PMFS of the subjects in highly polluted areas was 95 +/- 100 pico-Tesla (mean +/- SD) and was significantly higher than that of control subjects (p less than 0.01) and subsequently decreased in March 1985 and in March 1986, corresponding to a decrease in suspended road dust brought about by a campaign to eliminate the use of studded tires. Our findings suggest that some road dust caused by studded tires is retained in the lungs.

Subjective Life Horizon and Portfolio Choice

OpenAIRE

Spaenjers , Christophe; Spira, Sven Michael

2013-01-01

Using data from a U.S. household survey, we examine the empirical relation between subjective life horizon (i.e., the self-reported expectation of remaining life span) and portfolio choice. We find that equity portfolio shares are higher for investors with longer horizons, ceteris paribus, in line with theoretical predictions. This result is robust to controlling for optimism and health status, accounting for the endogeneity of equity market participation, or instrumenting subjective life hor...

The role of self-regulated strategies and goal orientation in predicting achievement of elementary school children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anastasia Kitsantas

2009-10-01

Full Text Available The present study examined the predictiveness of self-regulated learning strategies and goal orientation of elementary students’ academic achievement. Eighty one (n = 81 fifth graders were asked to respond to two scales. It was hypothesized that student achievement would be predicted by prior achievement, use of self-regulation strategies, and goal orientation. Results showed that prior achievement and use of self-regulation strategies accounted for a significant amount of variance in students’ academic achievement. Overall, goal orientation was not a significant predictor of students’ outcomes measures across different subject areas. Areas for future research are explored and implications for school personnel are provided.

Does early change predict long-term (6 months) improvements in subjects who receive manual therapy for low back pain?

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Cook, Chad; Petersen, Shannon; Donaldson, Megan; Wilhelm, Mark; Learman, Ken

2017-09-01

Early change is commonly assessed for manual therapy interventions and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, current studies have only explored the relationship of between or within-session changes and short-/medium-term outcomes. The goal of this study was to determine whether pain changes after two weeks of pragmatic manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who demonstrate continued improvements at 6-month follow-up. This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using a 33% and a 50% pain change to predict improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% pain reduction by 2 weeks had 6.98 (95% CI = 1.29, 37.53) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 (95% CI = 1.31, 17.17) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at 6 months). Subjects who reported a ≥50% pain reduction at 2 weeks had 5.98 (95% CI = 1.56, 22.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 (95% CI = 1.23, 12.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). Future studies may investigate whether a change in plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvement predictive of a good long-term outcome.

Economics and subjectivities of wellbeing in rural Zambia

OpenAIRE

White, Sarah; Ramirez, Viviana

2015-01-01

Mixed method research in Chiawa rural Zambia explores the importance of the economic within subjective dimensions of wellbeing. Statistical analysis shows a close relationship between subjective economic confidence and overall happiness, and that objective economic status predicts some subjective dimensions of wellbeing. Qualitative analysis explores the role of economic capacity in forging (male) gender identities; the emphasis on reciprocity and a moral economy; and the use of economics as ...

Core subjects at the end of primary school: identifying and explaining relative strengths of children with specific language impairment (SLI)

Science.gov (United States)

Durkin, Kevin; Mok, Pearl L H; Conti-Ramsden, Gina

2015-01-01

Background In general, children with specific language impairment (SLI) tend to fall behind their typically developing (TD) peers in educational attainment. Less is known about how children with SLI fare in particular areas of the curriculum and what predicts their levels of performance. Aims To compare the distributions of performance of children with SLI in three core school subjects (English, Mathematics and Science); to test the possibility that performance would vary across the core subjects; and to examine the extent to which language impairment predicts performance. Methods & Procedures This study was conducted in England and reports historical data on educational attainments. Teacher assessment and test scores of 176 eleven-year-old children with SLI were examined in the three core subjects and compared with known national norms. Possible predictors of performance were measured, including language ability at ages 7 and 11, educational placement type, and performance IQ. Outcomes & Results Children with SLI, compared with national norms, were found to be at a disadvantage in core school subjects. Nevertheless, some children attained the levels expected of TD peers. Performance was poorest in English; relative strengths were indicated in Science and, to a lesser extent, in Mathematics. Language skills were significant predictors of performance in all three core subjects. PIQ was the strongest predictor for Mathematics. For Science, both early language skills at 7 years and PIQ made significant contributions. Conclusions & Implications Language impacts on the school performance of children with SLI, but differentially across subjects. English for these children is the most challenging of the core subjects, reflecting the high levels of language demand it incurs. Science is an area of relative strength and mathematics appears to be intermediate, arguably because some tasks in these subjects can be performed with less reliance on verbal processing. Many children

Core subjects at the end of primary school: identifying and explaining relative strengths of children with specific language impairment (SLI).

Science.gov (United States)

Durkin, Kevin; Mok, Pearl L H; Conti-Ramsden, Gina

2015-01-01

In general, children with specific language impairment (SLI) tend to fall behind their typically developing (TD) peers in educational attainment. Less is known about how children with SLI fare in particular areas of the curriculum and what predicts their levels of performance. To compare the distributions of performance of children with SLI in three core school subjects (English, Mathematics and Science); to test the possibility that performance would vary across the core subjects; and to examine the extent to which language impairment predicts performance. This study was conducted in England and reports historical data on educational attainments. Teacher assessment and test scores of 176 eleven-year-old children with SLI were examined in the three core subjects and compared with known national norms. Possible predictors of performance were measured, including language ability at ages 7 and 11, educational placement type, and performance IQ. Children with SLI, compared with national norms, were found to be at a disadvantage in core school subjects. Nevertheless, some children attained the levels expected of TD peers. Performance was poorest in English; relative strengths were indicated in Science and, to a lesser extent, in Mathematics. Language skills were significant predictors of performance in all three core subjects. PIQ was the strongest predictor for Mathematics. For Science, both early language skills at 7 years and PIQ made significant contributions. Language impacts on the school performance of children with SLI, but differentially across subjects. English for these children is the most challenging of the core subjects, reflecting the high levels of language demand it incurs. Science is an area of relative strength and mathematics appears to be intermediate, arguably because some tasks in these subjects can be performed with less reliance on verbal processing. Many children with SLI do have the potential to reach or exceed educational targets that are set

Energy Data Base: subject categories and scope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bost, D.E.

1985-03-01

The subject scope of the Energy Data Base (EDB) encompasses all DOE-sponsored research. Broadly defined, EDB subject scope includes all technological aspects of energy production, conversion, and efficient utilization, and the economic, social, and political aspects as well. Scope notes are provided to define the extent of interest in certain subject areas, particularly areas of basic research. Cross references between categories are provided to aid both the categorization of information and its retrieval. Citations entered into DOE's computerized bibliographic information system are assigned six-digit subject category numbers to broadly group information for storage, retrieval, and manipulation. These numbers are used in the preparation of printed documents, such as bibliographies and abstract journals, to arrange the citations and to aid searching on the DOE/RECON on-line system

Limited Sampling Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Statins: Reliability of a Single Time Point for AUC Prediction for Pravastatin and Simvastatin.

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivas, N R

2016-02-01

Statins are widely prescribed medicines and are also available in fixed dose combinations with other drugs to treat several chronic ailments. Given the safety issues associated with statins it may be important to assess feasibility of a single time concentration strategy for prediction of exposure (area under the curve; AUC). The peak concentration (Cmax) was used to establish relationship with AUC separately for pravastatin and simvastatin using published pharmacokinetic data. The regression equations generated for statins were used to predict the AUC values from various literature references. The fold difference of the observed divided by predicted values along with correlation coefficient (r) were used to judge the feasibility of the single time point approach. Both pravastatin and simvastatin showed excellent correlation of Cmax vs. AUC values with r value ≥ 0.9638 (pAUC predictions and >81% of the predicted values were in a narrower range of >0.75-fold but AUC values showed excellent correlation for pravastatin (r=0.9708, n=115; pAUC predictions. On the basis of the present work, it is feasible to develop a single concentration time point strategy that coincides with Cmax occurrence for both pravastatin and simvastatin from a therapeutic drug monitoring perspective. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Meditation experience predicts introspective accuracy.

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Kieran C R Fox

Full Text Available The accuracy of subjective reports, especially those involving introspection of one's own internal processes, remains unclear, and research has demonstrated large individual differences in introspective accuracy. It has been hypothesized that introspective accuracy may be heightened in persons who engage in meditation practices, due to the highly introspective nature of such practices. We undertook a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis, examining introspective accuracy in a cross-section of meditation practitioners (1-15,000 hrs experience. Introspective accuracy was assessed by comparing subjective reports of tactile sensitivity for each of 20 body regions during a 'body-scanning' meditation with averaged, objective measures of tactile sensitivity (mean size of body representation area in primary somatosensory cortex; two-point discrimination threshold as reported in prior research. Expert meditators showed significantly better introspective accuracy than novices; overall meditation experience also significantly predicted individual introspective accuracy. These results suggest that long-term meditators provide more accurate introspective reports than novices.

GIS-Based Integration of Subjective and Objective Weighting Methods for Regional Landslides Susceptibility Mapping

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Suhua Zhou

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The development of landslide susceptibility maps is of great importance due to rapid urbanization. The purpose of this study is to present a method to integrate the subjective weight with objective weight for regional landslide susceptibility mapping on the geographical information system (GIS platform. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP, which is subjective, was employed to weight predictive factors’ contribution to landslide occurrence. The frequency ratio (FR method, which is objective, was used to derive subclasses’ frequency ratio with respect to landslides that indicate the relative importance of a subclass within each predictive factor. A case study was carried out at Tsushima Island, Japan, using a historical inventory of 534 landslides and seven predictive factors: elevation, slope, aspect, terrain roughness index (TRI, lithology, land cover and mean annual precipitation (MAP. The landslide susceptibility index (LSI was calculated using the weighted linear combination of factors’ weights and subclasses’ weights. The study area was classified into five susceptibility zones according to the LSI. In addition, the produced susceptibility map was compared with maps generated using the conventional FR and AHP method and validated using the relative landslide index (RLI. The validation result showed that the proposed method performed better than the conventional application of the FR method and AHP method. The obtained landslide susceptibility maps could serve as a scientific basis for urban planning and landslide hazard management.

Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion

Science.gov (United States)

Hirata, N.; Sato, H.; Koketsu, K.; Umeda, Y.; Iwata, T.; Kasahara, K.

2003-12-01

Introduction: After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Japanese government increased its focus and funding of earthquake hazards evaluation, studies of man-made structures integrity, and emergency response planning in the major urban centers. A new agency, the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture (MEXT) has started a five-year program titled as Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas (abbreviated to Dai-dai-toku in Japanese) since 2002. The project includes four programs: I. Regional characterization of the crust in metropolitan areas for prediction of strong ground motion. II. Significant improvement of seismic performance of structure. III. Advanced disaster management system. IV. Investigation of earthquake disaster mitigation research results. We will present the results from the first program conducted in 2002 and 2003. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion: A long-term goal is to produce map of reliable estimations of strong ground motion. This requires accurate determination of ground motion response, which includes a source process, an effect of propagation path, and near surface response. The new five-year project was aimed to characterize the "source" and "propagation path" in the Kanto (Tokyo) region and Kinki (Osaka) region. The 1923 Kanto Earthquake is one of the important targets to be addressed in the project. The proximity of the Pacific and Philippine Sea subducting plates requires study of the relationship between earthquakes and regional tectonics. This project focuses on identification and geometry of: 1) Source faults, 2) Subducting plates and mega-thrust faults, 3) Crustal structure, 4) Seismogenic zone, 5) Sedimentary basins, 6) 3D velocity properties We have conducted a series of seismic reflection and refraction experiment in the Kanto region. In 2002 we have completed to deploy seismic profiling lines in the Boso peninsula (112 km) and the

NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird diversity in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird diversity predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived from...

Using Monte Carlo/Gaussian Based Small Area Estimates to Predict Where Medicaid Patients Reside.

Science.gov (United States)

Behrens, Jess J; Wen, Xuejin; Goel, Satyender; Zhou, Jing; Fu, Lina; Kho, Abel N

2016-01-01

Electronic Health Records (EHR) are rapidly becoming accepted as tools for planning and population health 1,2 . With the national dialogue around Medicaid expansion 12 , the role of EHR data has become even more important. For their potential to be fully realized and contribute to these discussions, techniques for creating accurate small area estimates is vital. As such, we examined the efficacy of developing small area estimates for Medicaid patients in two locations, Albuquerque and Chicago, by using a Monte Carlo/Gaussian technique that has worked in accurately locating registered voters in North Carolina 11 . The Albuquerque data, which includes patient address, will first be used to assess the accuracy of the methodology. Subsequently, it will be combined with the EHR data from Chicago to develop a regression that predicts Medicaid patients by US Block Group. We seek to create a tool that is effective in translating EHR data's potential for population health studies.

Analysis of composite hydrogen storage cylinders subjected to localized flame impingements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, J.; Chen, J.; Sundararaman, S.; Chandrashekhara, K. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO 65409 (United States); Chernicoff, William [US Department of Transportation, Washington, DC 20509 (United States)

2008-06-15

A comprehensive non-linear finite element model is developed for predicting the behavior of composite hydrogen storage cylinders subjected to high pressure and localized flame impingements. The model is formulated in an axi-symmetric coordinate system and incorporates with various sub-models to describe the behavior of the composite cylinder under extreme thermo-mechanical loadings. A heat transfer sub-model is employed to predict the temperature evolution of the composite cylinder wall and accounts for heat transport due to decomposition and mass loss. A composite decomposition sub-model described by Arrhenius's law is implemented to predict the residual resin content of thermal damaged area. A sub-model for material degradation is implemented to account for the loss of mechanical properties. A progressive failure model is adopted to detect various types of mechanical failure. These sub-models are implemented in ABAQUS commercial finite element code using user subroutines. Numerical results are presented for thermal damage, residual properties and profile of resin content in the cylinder. The developed model provides a useful tool for safe design and structural assessment of high pressure composite hydrogen storage cylinders. (author)

Lipoprotein metabolism indicators improve cardiovascular risk prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniël B van Schalkwijk

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease risk increases when lipoprotein metabolism is dysfunctional. We have developed a computational model able to derive indicators of lipoprotein production, lipolysis, and uptake processes from a single lipoprotein profile measurement. This is the first study to investigate whether lipoprotein metabolism indicators can improve cardiovascular risk prediction and therapy management. METHODS AND RESULTS: We calculated lipoprotein metabolism indicators for 1981 subjects (145 cases, 1836 controls from the Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort in which NMR lipoprotein profiles were measured. We applied a statistical learning algorithm using a support vector machine to select conventional risk factors and lipoprotein metabolism indicators that contributed to predicting risk for general cardiovascular disease. Risk prediction was quantified by the change in the Area-Under-the-ROC-Curve (ΔAUC and by risk reclassification (Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI. Two VLDL lipoprotein metabolism indicators (VLDLE and VLDLH improved cardiovascular risk prediction. We added these indicators to a multivariate model with the best performing conventional risk markers. Our method significantly improved both CVD prediction and risk reclassification. CONCLUSIONS: Two calculated VLDL metabolism indicators significantly improved cardiovascular risk prediction. These indicators may help to reduce prescription of unnecessary cholesterol-lowering medication, reducing costs and possible side-effects. For clinical application, further validation is required.

Stress hormones at rest and following exercise testing predict coronary artery disease severity and outcome.

Science.gov (United States)

Popovic, Dejana; Damjanovic, Svetozar; Djordjevic, Tea; Martic, Dejana; Ignjatovic, Svetlana; Milinkovic, Neda; Banovic, Marko; Lasica, Ratko; Petrovic, Milan; Guazzi, Marco; Arena, Ross

2017-09-01

Despite considerable knowledge regarding the importance of stress in coronary artery disease (CAD) pathogenesis, its underestimation persists in routine clinical practice, in part attributable to lack of a standardized, objective assessment. The current study examined the ability of stress hormones to predict CAD severity and prognosis at basal conditions as well as during and following an exertional stimulus. Forty Caucasian subjects with significant coronary artery lesions (≥50%) were included. Within 2 months of coronary angiography, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) on a recumbent ergometer was performed in conjunction with stress echocardiography (SE). At rest, peak and after 3 min of recovery following CPET, plasma levels of cortisol, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and NT-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) were measured by immunoassay sandwich technique, radioimmunoassay, and radioimmunometric technique, respectively. Subjects were subsequently followed a mean of 32 ± 10 months. Mean ejection fraction was 56.7 ± 9.6%. Subjects with 1-2 stenotic coronary arteries (SCA) demonstrated a significantly lower plasma cortisol levels during CPET compared to those with 3-SCA (p  .05). Among CPET, SE, and hormonal parameters, cortisol at rest and during CPET recovery demonstrated the best predictive value in distinguishing between 1-, 2-, and 3-SCA [area under ROC curve 0.75 and 0.77 (SE = 0.11, 0.10; p = .043, .04) for rest and recovery, respectively]. ΔCortisol peak/rest predicted cumulative cardiac events (area under ROC curve 0.75, SE = 0.10, p = .049). Cortisol at rest and following an exercise test holds predictive value for CAD severity and prognosis, further demonstrating a link between stress and unwanted cardiac events.

MLP based models to predict PM10, O3 concentrations, in Sines industrial area

Science.gov (United States)

Durao, R.; Pereira, M. J.

2012-04-01

Sines is an important Portuguese industrial area located southwest cost of Portugal with important nearby protected natural areas. The main economical activities are related with this industrial area, the deep-water port, petrochemical and thermo-electric industry. Nevertheless, tourism is also an important economic activity especially in summer time with potential to grow. The aim of this study is to develop prediction models of pollutant concentration categories (e.g. low concentration and high concentration) in order to provide early warnings to the competent authorities who are responsible for the air quality management. The knowledge in advanced of pollutant high concentrations occurrence will allow the implementation of mitigation actions and the release of precautionary alerts to population. The regional air quality monitoring network consists in three monitoring stations where a set of pollutants' concentrations are registered on a continuous basis. From this set stands out the tropospheric ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) due to the high concentrations occurring in the region and their adverse effects on human health. Moreover, the major industrial plants of the region monitor SO2, NO2 and particles emitted flows at the principal chimneys (point sources), also on a continuous basis,. Therefore Artificial neuronal networks (ANN) were the applied methodology to predict next day pollutant concentrations; due to the ANNs structure they have the ability to capture the non-linear relationships between predictor variables. Hence the first step of this study was to apply multivariate exploratory techniques to select the best predictor variables. The classification trees methodology (CART) was revealed to be the most appropriate in this case.. Results shown that pollutants atmospheric concentrations are mainly dependent on industrial emissions and a complex combination of meteorological factors and the time of the year. In the second step, the Multi

Gender Differences in Contextual Predictors of Urban, Early Adolescents' Subjective Well-Being

Science.gov (United States)

Vera, Elizabeth M.; Moallem, B. Isabel; Vacek, Kimberly R.; Blackmon, Sha'kema; Coyle, Laura D.; Gomez, Kenia L.; Lamp, Kristen; Langrehr, Kimberly J.; Luginbuhl, Paula; Mull, Megan K.; Telander, Kyle J.; Steele, J. Corey

2012-01-01

Gender differences in predicting subjective well-being (SWB) were examined in 168 urban adolescents. School satisfaction predicted life satisfaction for boys; for girls, family satisfaction predicted life satisfaction and neighborhood satisfaction predicted negative affect. Self-esteem predicted positive affect for both genders, but friends…

Seismic prediction of sweet spots in the Da'anzhai shale play, Yuanba area, the Sichuan Basin

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Peng Changzi

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Burial depth, thickness, total organic carbon (TOC content, brittleness and fracture development of shale reservoirs are the main geologic indexes in the evaluation of sweet spots in shale gas plays. Taking the 2nd interval of Da'anzhai shale of the Lower Jurassic as the study object, a set of techniques in seismic prediction of sweet spots were developed based on special processing of seismic data and comprehensive analysis of various data based on these geologic indexes. First, logging and seismic responses of high quality shales were found out through fine calibration of shale reservoir location with seismogram, which was combined with seismic facies analysis to define the macroscopic distribution of the shale. Then, seismic impedance inversion and GR inversion were used to identify shale from limestone and sandstone. Based on statistical analysis of sensitive parameters such as TOC, the uranium log inversion technique was used to quantitatively predict TOC of a shale reservoir and the thickness of a high quality shale reservoir. After that, fracture prediction technique was employed to predict play fairways. Finally, the pre-stack joint P-wave and S-wave impedance inversion technique was adopted to identify shales with high brittleness suitable for hydraulic fracturing. These seismic prediction techniques have been applied in sorting out sweet spots in the 2nd interval of the Da'anzhai shale play of the Yuanba area, and the results provided a sound basis for the optimization of horizontal well placement and hydraulic fracturing.

Vision as subjective perception; La vision, une perception subjective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reppas, J.B. [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). Biological Labs.; Dale, A.; Sereno, M.; Tootell, R.

1996-07-01

The human brain is not very different of the monkey`s one: at least, its visual cortex is organized as a similar scheme. Specialized areas in the movement analysis are found and others in the forms perception. In this work, the author tries to answer to the following questions: (1)why so many visual areas? What are exactly their role in vision? Thirteen years of experimentation have not allowed to answer to these questions. The cerebral NMR imaging gives the opportunity of understanding the subjective perception of the visual world. One step which is particularly described in this work is to know how the visual cortex reacts to the optical illusions. (O.M.).

Information-Theoretic Evidence for Predictive Coding in the Face-Processing System.

Science.gov (United States)

Brodski-Guerniero, Alla; Paasch, Georg-Friedrich; Wollstadt, Patricia; Özdemir, Ipek; Lizier, Joseph T; Wibral, Michael

2017-08-23

Predictive coding suggests that the brain infers the causes of its sensations by combining sensory evidence with internal predictions based on available prior knowledge. However, the neurophysiological correlates of (pre)activated prior knowledge serving these predictions are still unknown. Based on the idea that such preactivated prior knowledge must be maintained until needed, we measured the amount of maintained information in neural signals via the active information storage (AIS) measure. AIS was calculated on whole-brain beamformer-reconstructed source time courses from MEG recordings of 52 human subjects during the baseline of a Mooney face/house detection task. Preactivation of prior knowledge for faces showed as α-band-related and β-band-related AIS increases in content-specific areas; these AIS increases were behaviorally relevant in the brain's fusiform face area. Further, AIS allowed decoding of the cued category on a trial-by-trial basis. Our results support accounts indicating that activated prior knowledge and the corresponding predictions are signaled in low-frequency activity (information our eyes/retina and other sensory organs receive from the outside world, but strongly depends also on information already present in our brains, such as prior knowledge about specific situations or objects. A currently popular theory in neuroscience, predictive coding theory, suggests that this prior knowledge is used by the brain to form internal predictions about upcoming sensory information. However, neurophysiological evidence for this hypothesis is rare, mostly because this kind of evidence requires strong a priori assumptions about the specific predictions the brain makes and the brain areas involved. Using a novel, assumption-free approach, we find that face-related prior knowledge and the derived predictions are represented in low-frequency brain activity. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378273-11$15.00/0.

Chromosomal aberrations in subjects exposed to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jovicic, D.; Milacic, S.; Kovacevic, R.; Tanaskovic, I.

2006-01-01

Occupational exposure is particularly delicate because of chronic exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation and its cumulative effect, where it is important to consider the biological response of body to given conditions of exposure. The objective of this study was the observation of the recovery of the DNA damages in subjects working in the radiation area in two different intervals.Group I, consisting of 30 subjects, was exposed to ionizing radiation and unstable chromosomal aberrations were identified. Group II included the same, re-examined subjects (30) 9 months later. It was verified that 5 (16.67%) subjects still had unstable chromosomal aberrations, although they had been excluded from radiation area Controls groups (C) consisted of 64 subjects that were not exposed to mutagenic agents.The comparison of the control group with the two studied groups revealed the reduction of the unstable aberrations (p<0.05). The total effective doses, which increased with the years spent in radiation area, reflected the yield of chromosomal aberrations. The presence of chromosomal aberrations in some subjects, after the exclusion from the ionising radiation exposure, suggests that the time needed for the recovery of the DNA damages is different, which indicates the individual differences in radiosensitivity as well as different of the reparatory cellular response. (author)

Quantification of lung surface area using computed tomography

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xing Li

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Objective To refine the CT prediction of emphysema by comparing histology and CT for specific regions of lung. To incorporate both regional lung density measured by CT and cluster analysis of low attenuation areas for comparison with histological measurement of surface area per unit lung volume. Methods The histological surface area per unit lung volume was estimated for 140 samples taken from resected lung specimens of fourteen subjects. The region of the lung sampled for histology was located on the pre-operative CT scan; the regional CT median lung density and emphysematous lesion size were calculated using the X-ray attenuation values and a low attenuation cluster analysis. Linear mixed models were used to examine the relationships between histological surface area per unit lung volume and CT measures. Results The median CT lung density, low attenuation cluster analysis, and the combination of both were important predictors of surface area per unit lung volume measured by histology (p Conclusion Combining CT measures of lung density and emphysematous lesion size provides a more accurate estimate of lung surface area per unit lung volume than either measure alone.

Body surface area determined by whole-body CT scanning: need for new formulae?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Villa, Chiara; Primeau, Charlotte; Hesse, Ulrik

2017-01-01

Calculation of the estimated body surface area (BSA) by body height and weight has been a challenge in the past centuries due to lack of a well-documented gold standard. More recently, available techniques such as 3D laser surface scanning and CT scanning may be expected to quantify the BSA...... Mimics software, and BSA values were automatically extracted from the program. They were compared with nine predictive equations from the literature. Remarkably, close correlations (r > 0·90) were found between BSA values from CT scans and those from the predictive formulae. A mean BSA of the 54 cadavers...... equations, with the CT scan determination as gold standard. It is concluded that DuBois and DuBois' equation can be safely used in normal-weight male subjects with high accuracy, but it seems likely that BSA is underestimated in underweight subjects and overestimated in overweight individuals. Creation...

Resting-State Functional Connectivity Predicts Cognitive Impairment Related to Alzheimer's Disease

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Qi Lin

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Resting-state functional connectivity (rs-FC is a promising neuromarker for cognitive decline in aging population, based on its ability to reveal functional differences associated with cognitive impairment across individuals, and because rs-fMRI may be less taxing for participants than task-based fMRI or neuropsychological tests. Here, we employ an approach that uses rs-FC to predict the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (11 items; ADAS11 scores, which measure overall cognitive functioning, in novel individuals. We applied this technique, connectome-based predictive modeling, to a heterogeneous sample of 59 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, including normal aging, mild cognitive impairment, and AD subjects. First, we built linear regression models to predict ADAS11 scores from rs-FC measured with Pearson's r correlation. The positive network model tested with leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV significantly predicted individual differences in cognitive function from rs-FC. In a second analysis, we considered other functional connectivity features, accordance and discordance, which disentangle the correlation and anticorrelation components of activity timecourses between brain areas. Using partial least square regression and LOOCV, we again built models to successfully predict ADAS11 scores in novel individuals. Our study provides promising evidence that rs-FC can reveal cognitive impairment in an aging population, although more development is needed for clinical application.

Left atrial low-voltage areas predict atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuda, Masaharu; Fujita, Masashi; Iida, Osamu; Okamoto, Shin; Ishihara, Takayuki; Nanto, Kiyonori; Kanda, Takashi; Tsujimura, Takuya; Matsuda, Yasuhiro; Okuno, Shota; Ohashi, Takuya; Tsuji, Aki; Mano, Toshiaki

2018-04-15

Association between the presence of left atrial low-voltage areas and atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) has been shown mainly in persistent AF patients. We sought to compare the AF recurrence rate in paroxysmal AF patients with and without left atrial low-voltage areas. This prospective observational study included 147 consecutive patients undergoing initial ablation for paroxysmal AF. Voltage mapping was performed after PVI during sinus rhythm, and low-voltage areas were defined as regions where bipolar peak-to-peak voltage was low-voltage areas after PVI were observed in 22 (15%) patients. Patients with low-voltage areas were significantly older (72±6 vs. 66±10, plow-voltage areas than without (36% vs. 6%, pLow-voltage areas were independently associated with AF recurrence even after adjustment for the other related factors (Hazard ratio, 5.89; 95% confidence interval, 2.16 to 16.0, p=0.001). The presence of left atrial low-voltage areas after PVI predicts AF recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF as well as in patients with persistent AF. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Within-digit functional parcellation of Brodmann areas of the human primary somatosensory cortex using functional magnetic resonance imaging at 7 tesla.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Panchuelo, Rosa M; Besle, Julien; Beckett, Alex; Bowtell, Richard; Schluppeck, Denis; Francis, Susan

2012-11-07

The primary somatosensory cortex (S1) can be subdivided cytoarchitectonically into four distinct Brodmann areas (3a, 3b, 1, and 2), but these areas have never been successfully delineated in vivo in single human subjects. Here, we demonstrate the functional parcellation of four areas of S1 in individual human subjects based on high-resolution functional MRI measurements made at 7 T using vibrotactile stimulation. By stimulating four sites along the length of the index finger, we were able to identify and locate map reversals of the base to tip representation of the index finger in S1. We suggest that these reversals correspond to the areal borders between the mirrored representations in the four Brodmann areas, as predicted from electrophysiology measurements in nonhuman primates. In all subjects, maps were highly reproducible across scanning sessions and stable over weeks. In four of the six subjects scanned, four, mirrored, within-finger somatotopic maps defining the extent of the Brodmann areas could be directly observed on the cortical surface. In addition, by using multivariate classification analysis, the location of stimulation on the index finger (four distinct sites) could be decoded with a mean accuracy of 65% across subjects. Our measurements thus show that within-finger topography is present at the millimeter scale in the cortex and is highly reproducible. The ability to identify functional areas of S1 in vivo in individual subjects will provide a framework for investigating more complex aspects of tactile representation in S1.

A metabolomics-driven approach to predict cocoa product consumption by designing a multimetabolite biomarker model in free-living subjects from the PREDIMED study.

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Aloy, Mar; Llorach, Rafael; Urpi-Sarda, Mireia; Jáuregui, Olga; Corella, Dolores; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Fitó, Montserrat; Ros, Emilio; Estruch, Ramon; Andres-Lacueva, Cristina

2015-02-01

The aim of the current study was to apply an untargeted metabolomics strategy to characterize a model of cocoa intake biomarkers in a free-living population. An untargeted HPLC-q-ToF-MS based metabolomics approach was applied to human urine from 32 consumers of cocoa or derived products (CC) and 32 matched control subjects with no consumption of cocoa products (NC). The multivariate statistical analysis (OSC-PLS-DA) showed clear differences between CC and NC groups. The discriminant biomarkers identified were mainly related to the metabolic pathways of theobromine and polyphenols, as well as to cocoa processing. Consumption of cocoa products was also associated with reduced urinary excretions of methylglutarylcarnitine, which could be related to effects of cocoa exposure on insulin resistance. To improve the prediction of cocoa consumption, a combined urinary metabolite model was constructed. ROC curves were performed to evaluate the model and individual metabolites. The AUC values (95% CI) for the model were 95.7% (89.8-100%) and 92.6% (81.9-100%) in training and validation sets, respectively, whereas the AUCs for individual metabolites were cocoa consumption in free-living subjects reveals that combining different metabolites as biomarker models improves prediction of dietary exposure to cocoa. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

Science.gov (United States)

Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

2016-04-01

A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

Area under the curve predictions of dalbavancin, a new lipoglycopeptide agent, using the end of intravenous infusion concentration data point by regression analyses such as linear, log-linear and power models.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhamidipati, Ravi Kanth; Syed, Muzeeb; Mullangi, Ramesh; Srinivas, Nuggehally

2018-02-01

1. Dalbavancin, a lipoglycopeptide, is approved for treating gram-positive bacterial infections. Area under plasma concentration versus time curve (AUC inf ) of dalbavancin is a key parameter and AUC inf /MIC ratio is a critical pharmacodynamic marker. 2. Using end of intravenous infusion concentration (i.e. C max ) C max versus AUC inf relationship for dalbavancin was established by regression analyses (i.e. linear, log-log, log-linear and power models) using 21 pairs of subject data. 3. The predictions of the AUC inf were performed using published C max data by application of regression equations. The quotient of observed/predicted values rendered fold difference. The mean absolute error (MAE)/root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r) were used in the assessment. 4. MAE and RMSE values for the various models were comparable. The C max versus AUC inf exhibited excellent correlation (r > 0.9488). The internal data evaluation showed narrow confinement (0.84-1.14-fold difference) with a RMSE models predicted AUC inf with a RMSE of 3.02-27.46% with fold difference largely contained within 0.64-1.48. 5. Regardless of the regression models, a single time point strategy of using C max (i.e. end of 30-min infusion) is amenable as a prospective tool for predicting AUC inf of dalbavancin in patients.

Predictability and Spatial Characteristics of New-York-City-Area Heat Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Raymond, C.; Horton, R. M.

2016-12-01

The origins, characteristics, and predictability of extreme heat waves in the Northeast U.S. are simultaneously examined at multiple scales, using hourly observational data from 1948-2014 and focusing in particular on the region surrounding New York City. A novel definition of heat waves - incorporating both temperature and moisture at hourly resolution - is used to identify 3-to-5-day heat waves whose dynamics are then analyzed from 3 weeks prior to 3 weeks subsequent to the event. Inter-event differences in dynamics such as the strength and position of geopotential-height anomalies; the strength, persistence, and orientation of sea breezes; and the dominant 850-hPa wind azimuth, all of which are filtered via local terrain and land-use to create differences in conditions between events at specific locations. In particular, using composite maps and back trajectories, they are found to play an important role in creating mesoscale differences in low-level moisture content, from one side of the metropolitan area to the other. Evidence is presented supporting the influence of coastline orientation in explaining the differences in the relationships between wind azimuth and temperature & moisture advection between New York City proper and northern New Jersey. Self-organizing maps are employed to classify heat waves based on the small-scale differences in temperature and moisture between events, and the results of this classification are then used in correlations with synoptic- and hemispheric-scale geopotential-height anomalies. Considerable predictability of event type on the small-scale (as well as occurrence of a heat wave of any kind) is found, originating primarily from central Pacific and western Atlantic SSTs.

Transport and solubility of Hetero-disperse dry deposition particulate matter subject to urban source area rainfall-runoff processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ying, G.; Sansalone, J.

2010-03-01

SummaryWith respect to hydrologic processes, the impervious pavement interface significantly alters relationships between rainfall and runoff. Commensurate with alteration of hydrologic processes the pavement also facilitates transport and solubility of dry deposition particulate matter (PM) in runoff. This study examines dry depositional flux rates, granulometric modification by runoff transport, as well as generation of total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity and conductivity in source area runoff resulting from PM solubility. PM is collected from a paved source area transportation corridor (I-10) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana encompassing 17 dry deposition and 8 runoff events. The mass-based granulometric particle size distribution (PSD) is measured and modeled through a cumulative gamma function, while PM surface area distributions across the PSD follow a log-normal distribution. Dry deposition flux rates are modeled as separate first-order exponential functions of previous dry hours (PDH) for PM and suspended, settleable and sediment fractions. When trans-located from dry deposition into runoff, PSDs are modified, with a d50m decreasing from 331 to 14 μm after transport and 60 min of settling. Solubility experiments as a function of pH, contact time and particle size using source area rainfall generate constitutive models to reproduce pH, alkalinity, TDS and alkalinity for historical events. Equilibrium pH, alkalinity and TDS are strongly influenced by particle size and contact times. The constitutive leaching models are combined with measured PSDs from a series of rainfall-runoff events to demonstrate that the model results replicate alkalinity and TDS in runoff from the subject watershed. Results illustrate the granulometry of dry deposition PM, modification of PSDs along the drainage pathway, and the role of PM solubility for generation of TDS, alkalinity and conductivity in urban source area rainfall-runoff.

The interblink interval in normal and dry eye subjects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johnston PR

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Patrick R Johnston,1 John Rodriguez,1 Keith J Lane,1 George Ousler,1 Mark B Abelson1,21Ora, Inc, Andover, MA, USA; 2Schepens Eye Research Institute and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USAPurpose: Our aim was to extend the concept of blink patterns from average interblink interval (IBI to other aspects of the distribution of IBI. We hypothesized that this more comprehensive approach would better discriminate between normal and dry eye subjects.Methods: Blinks were captured over 10 minutes for ten normal and ten dry eye subjects while viewing a standardized televised documentary. Fifty-five blinks were analyzed for each of the 20 subjects. Means, standard deviations, and autocorrelation coefficients were calculated utilizing a single random effects model fit to all data points and a diagnostic model was subsequently fit to predict probability of a subject having dry eye based on these parameters.Results: Mean IBI was 5.97 seconds for normal versus 2.56 seconds for dry eye subjects (ratio: 2.33, P = 0.004. IBI variability was 1.56 times higher in normal subjects (P < 0.001, and the autocorrelation was 1.79 times higher in normal subjects (P = 0.044. With regard to the diagnostic power of these measures, mean IBI was the best dry eye versus normal classifier using receiver operating characteristics (0.85 area under curve (AUC, followed by the standard deviation (0.75 AUC, and lastly, the autocorrelation (0.63 AUC. All three predictors combined had an AUC of 0.89. Based on this analysis, cutoffs of ≤3.05 seconds for median IBI, and ≤0.73 for the coefficient of variation were chosen to classify dry eye subjects.Conclusion: (1 IBI was significantly shorter for dry eye patients performing a visual task compared to normals; (2 there was a greater variability of interblink intervals in normal subjects; and (3 these parameters were useful as diagnostic predictors of dry eye disease. The results of this pilot study merit investigation of IBI

Job satisfaction and subjective well-being among Czech nurses.

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Gurková, Elena; Haroková, Sylvie; Džuka, Jozef; Žiaková, Katarína

2014-04-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between domains of the job satisfaction and components of subjective well-being in nurses. A convenience sample of hospital nurses was recruited from six hospitals in Czech Republic. Data were collected using a set of questionnaires that included the McCloskey/Mueller Satisfaction Scale, the Positive Affect Scale, the Negative Affect Scale and the Personal Well-being Index. We confirmed low association between job satisfaction and subjective well-being of nurses. Satisfaction with extrinsic rewards, co-workers and family/work balance accounted for only a small percentage of variance in cognitive component of subjective well-being. Positive affect was predicted by interaction opportunities and scheduling. Negative affect was predicted by interaction opportunities and scheduling and intention to leave the actual workplace. Low percentage of the variance suggests that subjective well-being is not strongly influenced by job satisfaction. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Urinary arsenic methylation capability and carotid atherosclerosis risk in subjects living in arsenicosis-hyperendemic areas in southwestern Taiwan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Y.-L. [Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Hsueh, Y.-M. [Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: ymhsueh@tmu.edu.tw; Huang, Y.-K. [Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Yip, P.-K. [Department of Neurology, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Yang, M.-H. [Department of Nuclear Science, National Tsing-Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Chen, C.-J. [Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Graduate Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University Taipei, Taiwan (China)

2009-04-01

Long-term exposure to inorganic arsenic from artesian drinking well water is associated with carotid atherosclerosis in the Blackfoot Disease (BFD)-hyperendemic area in Taiwan. The current study examined the arsenic methylation capacity and its risk on carotid atherosclerosis. A total of 304 adults (158 men and 146 women) residing in the BFD-hyperendemic area were included. The extent of carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by duplex ultrasonography. Chronic arsenic exposure was estimated by an index of cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE) and the duration of artesian well water consumption. Urinary levels of inorganic arsenite [As(III)], arsenate [As(V)], monomethylarsonic acid [MMA(V)] and dimethylarsinic acid [DMA(V)] were determined by high performance liquid chromatography linked on-line to a hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry (HPLC-HG-AAS). The percentage of arsenic species, primary methylation index [PMI = MMA(V) / (As(III) + As(V)] and secondary methylation index [SMI = DMA(V) / MMA(V)] were calculated and employed as indicators of arsenic methylation capacity. Results showed that women and younger subjects had a more efficient arsenic methylation capacity than did men and the elderly. Carotid atherosclerosis cases had a significantly greater percentage of MMA(V) [%MMA(V)] and a lower percentage of DMA [%DMA (V)] compared to controls. Subjects in the highest two tertiles of PMI with a median of CAE > 0 mg/L-year had an odds ratio (OR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of carotid atherosclerosis of 2.61 and 0.98-6.90 compared to those in the highest two tertiles of PMI with a CAE = 0 mg/L-year. We conclude that individuals with greater exposure to arsenic and lower capacity to methylate inorganic arsenic may be at a higher risk to carotid atherosclerosis.

Urinary arsenic methylation capability and carotid atherosclerosis risk in subjects living in arsenicosis-hyperendemic areas in southwestern Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Y.-L.; Hsueh, Y.-M.; Huang, Y.-K.; Yip, P.-K.; Yang, M.-H.; Chen, C.-J.

2009-01-01

Long-term exposure to inorganic arsenic from artesian drinking well water is associated with carotid atherosclerosis in the Blackfoot Disease (BFD)-hyperendemic area in Taiwan. The current study examined the arsenic methylation capacity and its risk on carotid atherosclerosis. A total of 304 adults (158 men and 146 women) residing in the BFD-hyperendemic area were included. The extent of carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by duplex ultrasonography. Chronic arsenic exposure was estimated by an index of cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE) and the duration of artesian well water consumption. Urinary levels of inorganic arsenite [As(III)], arsenate [As(V)], monomethylarsonic acid [MMA(V)] and dimethylarsinic acid [DMA(V)] were determined by high performance liquid chromatography linked on-line to a hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry (HPLC-HG-AAS). The percentage of arsenic species, primary methylation index [PMI = MMA(V) / (As(III) + As(V)] and secondary methylation index [SMI = DMA(V) / MMA(V)] were calculated and employed as indicators of arsenic methylation capacity. Results showed that women and younger subjects had a more efficient arsenic methylation capacity than did men and the elderly. Carotid atherosclerosis cases had a significantly greater percentage of MMA(V) [%MMA(V)] and a lower percentage of DMA [%DMA (V)] compared to controls. Subjects in the highest two tertiles of PMI with a median of CAE > 0 mg/L-year had an odds ratio (OR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of carotid atherosclerosis of 2.61 and 0.98-6.90 compared to those in the highest two tertiles of PMI with a CAE = 0 mg/L-year. We conclude that individuals with greater exposure to arsenic and lower capacity to methylate inorganic arsenic may be at a higher risk to carotid atherosclerosis

Urinary Neurotransmitters Are Selectively Altered in Children With Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Predict Cognitive Morbidity

Science.gov (United States)

Kheirandish-Gozal, Leila; McManus, Corena J. T.; Kellermann, Gottfried H.; Samiei, Arash

2013-01-01

Background: Pediatric obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with cognitive dysfunction, suggesting altered neurotransmitter function. We explored overnight changes in neurotransmitters in the urine of children with and without OSA. Methods: Urine samples were collected from children with OSA and from control subjects before and after sleep studies. A neurocognitive battery assessing general cognitive ability (GCA) was administered to a subset of children with OSA. Samples were subjected to multiple enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for 12 neurotransmitters, and adjusted for creatinine concentrations. Results: The study comprised 50 children with OSA and 20 control subjects. Of the children with OSA, 20 had normal GCA score (mean ± SD) (101.2 ± 14.5) and 16 had a reduced GCA score (87.3 ± 13.9; P neurotransmitters enabled prediction of OSA (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.923; P neurotransmitters in urine may not only predict OSA but also the presence of cognitive deficits. Larger cohort studies appear warranted to confirm these findings. PMID:23306904

Wavefront coherence area for predicting visual acuity of post-PRK and post-PARK refractive surgery patients

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Daniel D.; van de Pol, Corina; Barsky, Brian A.; Klein, Stanley A.

1999-06-01

Many current corneal topography instruments (called videokeratographs) provide an `acuity index' based on corneal smoothness to analyze expected visual acuity. However, post-refractive surgery patients often exhibit better acuity than is predicted by such indices. One reason for this is that visual acuity may not necessarily be determined by overall corneal smoothness but rather by having some part of the cornea able to focus light coherently onto the fovea. We present a new method of representing visual acuity by measuring the wavefront aberration, using principles from both ray and wave optics. For each point P on the cornea, we measure the size of the associated coherence area whose optical path length (OPL), from a reference plane to P's focus, is within a certain tolerance of the OPL for P. We measured the topographies and vision of 62 eyes of patients who had undergone the corneal refractive surgery procedures of photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and photorefractive astigmatic keratectomy (PARK). In addition to high contrast visual acuity, our vision tests included low contrast and low luminance to test the contribution of the PRK transition zone. We found our metric for visual acuity to be better than all other metrics at predicting the acuity of low contrast and low luminance. However, high contrast visual acuity was poorly predicted by all of the indices we studied, including our own. The indices provided by current videokeratographs sometimes fail for corneas whose shape differs from simple ellipsoidal models. This is the case with post-PRK and post-PARK refractive surgery patients. Our alternative representation that displays the coherence area of the wavefront has considerable advantages, and promises to be a better predictor of low contrast and low luminance visual acuity than current shape measures.

NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird species richness in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird species richness, or number of species, predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area....

NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative seabird abundance in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...

A case study of full integration of the arts into core subject area instruction in one East Texas secondary school

Science.gov (United States)

Leysath, Maggie

This exploratory phenomenological case study investigated the influence the full integration of the arts into core subject instruction has on classroom environment, student academic achievement, and student engagement as perceived by administrators, teachers, and students in one East Texas secondary school. Participant interviews were analyzed using Creswell's (2012) six-step method for analyzing phenomenological studies. The researcher implemented three learning activities in which ceramics learning objectives were fully integrated with chemistry learning objectives. The first activity combined clay properties and pottery wheel throwing with significant numbers. The second activity combined glaze formulation with moles. The third combined stoichiometry with the increased glaze formula for students to glaze the bowls they made. Findings suggest the full integration of art in core subject area instruction has numerous positive effects. Participants reported improved academic achievement for all students including reluctant learners. Students, teachers, and the administrator reported greater participation in the art integrated activities. Participants perceived a need for further training for teachers and administrators for greater success.

Human V4 Activity Patterns Predict Behavioral Performance in Imagery of Object Color.

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Bannert, Michael M; Bartels, Andreas

2018-04-11

Color is special among basic visual features in that it can form a defining part of objects that are engrained in our memory. Whereas most neuroimaging research on human color vision has focused on responses related to external stimulation, the present study investigated how sensory-driven color vision is linked to subjective color perception induced by object imagery. We recorded fMRI activity in male and female volunteers during viewing of abstract color stimuli that were red, green, or yellow in half of the runs. In the other half we asked them to produce mental images of colored, meaningful objects (such as tomato, grapes, banana) corresponding to the same three color categories. Although physically presented color could be decoded from all retinotopically mapped visual areas, only hV4 allowed predicting colors of imagined objects when classifiers were trained on responses to physical colors. Importantly, only neural signal in hV4 was predictive of behavioral performance in the color judgment task on a trial-by-trial basis. The commonality between neural representations of sensory-driven and imagined object color and the behavioral link to neural representations in hV4 identifies area hV4 as a perceptual hub linking externally triggered color vision with color in self-generated object imagery. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Humans experience color not only when visually exploring the outside world, but also in the absence of visual input, for example when remembering, dreaming, and during imagery. It is not known where neural codes for sensory-driven and internally generated hue converge. In the current study we evoked matching subjective color percepts, one driven by physically presented color stimuli, the other by internally generated color imagery. This allowed us to identify area hV4 as the only site where neural codes of corresponding subjective color perception converged regardless of its origin. Color codes in hV4 also predicted behavioral performance in an

NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative uncertainty for sediment size in the New York offshore planning area by NOAA Biogeography Branch

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size prediction uncertainty from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also...

Modeling the time--varying subjective quality of HTTP video streams with rate adaptations.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chao; Choi, Lark Kwon; de Veciana, Gustavo; Caramanis, Constantine; Heath, Robert W; Bovik, Alan C

2014-05-01

Newly developed hypertext transfer protocol (HTTP)-based video streaming technologies enable flexible rate-adaptation under varying channel conditions. Accurately predicting the users' quality of experience (QoE) for rate-adaptive HTTP video streams is thus critical to achieve efficiency. An important aspect of understanding and modeling QoE is predicting the up-to-the-moment subjective quality of a video as it is played, which is difficult due to hysteresis effects and nonlinearities in human behavioral responses. This paper presents a Hammerstein-Wiener model for predicting the time-varying subjective quality (TVSQ) of rate-adaptive videos. To collect data for model parameterization and validation, a database of longer duration videos with time-varying distortions was built and the TVSQs of the videos were measured in a large-scale subjective study. The proposed method is able to reliably predict the TVSQ of rate adaptive videos. Since the Hammerstein-Wiener model has a very simple structure, the proposed method is suitable for online TVSQ prediction in HTTP-based streaming.

The Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale in subjects clinically at high risk of psychosis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nieman, D. H.; Velthorst, E.; Becker, H. E.; de Haan, L.; Dingemans, P. M.; Linszen, D. H.; Birchwood, M.; Patterson, P.; Salokangas, R. K. R.; Heinimaa, M.; Heinz, A.; Juckel, G.; von Reventlow, H. G.; Morrison, A.; Schultze-Lutter, F.; Klosterkötter, J.; Ruhrmann, S.; McGorry, Patrick D.; McGlashan, Thomas H.; Knapp, Martin; van de Fliert, Reinaud; Klaassen, Rianne; Picker, Heinz; Neumann, Meike; Brockhaus-Dumke, Anke; Pukrop, Ralf; Svirskis, Tanja; Huttunen, Jukka; Laine, Tiina; Ilonen, Tuula; Ristkari, Terja; Hietala, Jarmo; Skeate, Amanda; Gudlowski, Yehonala; Ozgürdal, Seza; French, Paul; Stevens, Helen

2013-01-01

To investigate the predictive value of the Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale (SCPS) for transition to a first psychotic episode in subjects clinically at high risk (CHR) of psychosis. Two hundred and forty-four CHR subjects participating in the European Prediction of Psychosis Study were

Prediction Method for Rain Rate and Rain Propagation Attenuation for K-Band Satellite Communications Links in Tropical Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baso Maruddani

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the prediction method using hidden Markov model (HMM for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation for K-band satellite communication link at tropical area. As is well known, the K-band frequency is susceptible of being affected by atmospheric condition, especially in rainy condition. The wavelength of K-band frequency which approaches to the size of rain droplet causes the signal strength is easily attenuated and absorbed by the rain droplet. In order to keep the quality of system performance for K-band satellite communication link, therefore a special attention has to be paid for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation. Thus, a prediction method for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation based on HMM is developed to process the measurement data. The measured and predicted data are then compared with the ITU-R recommendation. From the result, it is shown that the measured and predicted data show similarity with the model of ITU-R P.837-5 recommendation for rain rate and the model of ITU-R P.618-10 recommendation for rain propagation attenuation. Meanwhile, statistical data for measured and predicted data such as fade duration and interfade duration have insignificant discrepancy with the model of ITU-R P.1623-1 recommendation.

Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

Science.gov (United States)

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2008-01-01

Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of

Energy Data Base: Subject categories and scope: A reference manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grissom, M.C.

1987-04-01

The subject scope of the Energy Data Base (EDB) is defined, encompassing all technological aspects of energy production, conversion, and efficient utilization, and the economic, social, and political aspects as well. Coverage also includes the basic sciences as applicable. The subject areas within the scope of EDB are defined and hierarchically numbered, and scope notes are provided to define the extent of interest in certain areas, particularly areas of basic research

An IL28B genotype-based clinical prediction model for treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas R O'Brien

Full Text Available Genetic variation in IL28B and other factors are associated with sustained virological response (SVR after pegylated-interferon/ribavirin treatment for chronic hepatitis C (CHC. Using data from the HALT-C Trial, we developed a model to predict a patient's probability of SVR based on IL28B genotype and clinical variables.HALT-C enrolled patients with advanced CHC who had failed previous interferon-based treatment. Subjects were re-treated with pegylated-interferon/ribavirin during trial lead-in. We used step-wise logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR and create the predictive model. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to predict a priori probabilities of SVR and determine area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC.Among 646 HCV genotype 1-infected European American patients, 14.2% achieved SVR. IL28B rs12979860-CC genotype was the strongest predictor of SVR (aOR, 7.56; p10% (43.3% of subjects had an SVR rate of 27.9% and accounted for 84.8% of subjects actually achieving SVR. To verify that consideration of both IL28B genotype and clinical variables is required for treatment decisions, we calculated AUC values from published data for the IDEAL Study.A clinical prediction model based on IL28B genotype and clinical variables can yield useful individualized predictions of the probability of treatment success that could increase SVR rates and decrease the frequency of futile treatment among patients with CHC.

Predicting Cognitive, Functional, and Diagnostic Change over 4 Years Using Baseline Subjective Cognitive Complaints in the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Slavin, Melissa J; Sachdev, Perminder S; Kochan, Nicole A; Woolf, Claudia; Crawford, John D; Giskes, Katrina; Reppermund, Simone; Trollor, Julian N; Draper, Brian; Delbaere, Kim; Brodaty, Henry

2015-09-01

There is limited understanding of the usefulness of subjective cognitive complaint(s) (SCC) in predicting longitudinal outcome because most studies focus solely on memory (as opposed to nonmemory cognitive) complaints, do not collect data from both participants and informants, do not control for relevant covariates, and have limited outcome measures. Therefore the authors investigate the usefulness of participant and informant SCCs in predicting change in cognition, functional abilities, and diagnostic classification of mild cognitive impairment or dementia in a community-dwelling sample over 4 years. Nondemented participants (N = 620) in the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study aged between 70 and 90 years completed 15 memory and 9 nonmemory SCC questions. An informant completed a baseline questionnaire that included 15 memory and 4 nonmemory SCC questions relating to the participant. Neuropsychological, functional, and diagnostic assessments were carried out at baseline and again at 4-year follow-up. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were carried out to determine the association between SCC indices and neuropsychological, functional, and diagnostic data while controlling for psychological measures. Once participant characteristics were controlled for, participant complaints were generally not predictive of cognitive or functional decline, although participant memory-specific complaints were predictive of diagnostic conversion. Informant-related memory questions were associated with global cognitive and functional decline and with diagnostic conversion over 4 years. Informant memory complaint questions were better than participant complaints in predicting cognitive and functional decline as well as diagnoses over 4 years. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Internally generated preactivation of single neurons in human medial frontal cortex predicts volition

Science.gov (United States)

Fried, Itzhak; Mukamel, Roy; Kreiman, Gabriel

2011-01-01

Understanding how self-initiated behavior is encoded by neuronal circuits in the human brain remains elusive. We recorded the activity of 1019 neurons while twelve subjects performed self-initiated finger movement. We report progressive neuronal recruitment over ~1500 ms before subjects report making the decision to move. We observed progressive increase or decrease in neuronal firing rate, particularly in the supplementary motor area (SMA), as the reported time of decision was approached. A population of 256 SMA neurons is sufficient to predict in single trials the impending decision to move with accuracy greater than 80% already 700 ms prior to subjects’ awareness. Furthermore, we predict, with a precision of a few hundred ms, the actual time point of this voluntary decision to move. We implement a computational model whereby volition emerges once a change in internally generated firing rate of neuronal assemblies crosses a threshold. PMID:21315264

Do subjective memory complaints herald the onset of mild cognitive impairment in Parkinson disease?

Science.gov (United States)

Erro, Roberto; Santangelo, Gabriella; Barone, Paolo; Picillo, Marina; Amboni, Marianna; Longo, Katia; Giordano, Flavio; Moccia, Marcello; Allocca, Roberto; Pellecchia, Maria Teresa; Vitale, Carmine

2014-12-01

Longitudinal studies on healthy participants have shown that subjective memory impairment (defined as subjective cognitive complaints with normal cognitive objective performance) might be a strong predictor of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Parkinson disease (PD) also manifests cognitive disturbances, but whether subjective memory complaints may predict the development of MCI in PD has not yet been explored. We prospectively screened newly diagnosed, untreated patients with PD in order to evaluate whether subjective memory complaints may predict development of MCI over a 2-year follow-up evaluation. We enrolled 76 de novo untreated patients with PD. Of the 76 patients, 23 (30.3%) complained memory issues. Among the patients cognitively unimpaired at baseline, those with subjective complaints were more likely to develop MCI at follow-up. The regression model confirmed that presence of subjective memory complaints at baseline was an independent predictor of development of MCI at follow-up. This is the first prospective study to explore the relationship between subjective and objective cognitive deficits in newly diagnosed, untreated patients. Our results provide preliminary evidence that subjective memory complaints might predict future development of MCI. © The Author(s) 2014.

Simulations of photochemical smog formation in complex urban areas

Science.gov (United States)

Muilwijk, C.; Schrijvers, P. J. C.; Wuerz, S.; Kenjereš, S.

2016-12-01

In the present study we numerically investigated the dispersion of photochemical reactive pollutants in complex urban areas by applying an integrated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Computational Reaction Dynamics (CRD) approach. To model chemical reactions involved in smog generation, the Generic Reaction Set (GRS) approach is used. The GRS model was selected since it does not require detailed modeling of a large set of reactive components. Smog formation is modeled first in the case of an intensive traffic emission, subjected to low to moderate wind conditions in an idealized two-dimensional street canyon with a building aspect ratio (height/width) of one. It is found that Reactive Organic Components (ROC) play an important role in the chemistry of smog formation. In contrast to the NOx/O3 photochemical steady state model that predicts a depletion of the (ground level) ozone, the GRS model predicts generation of ozone. Secondly, the effect of direct sunlight and shadow within the street canyon on the chemical reaction dynamics is investigated for three characteristic solar angles (morning, midday and afternoon). Large differences of up to one order of magnitude are found in the ozone production for different solar angles. As a proof of concept for real urban areas, the integrated CFD/CRD approach is applied for a real scale (1 × 1 km2) complex urban area (a district of the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands) with high traffic emissions. The predicted pollutant concentration levels give realistic values that correspond to moderate to heavy smog. It is concluded that the integrated CFD/CRD method with the GRS model of chemical reactions is both accurate and numerically robust, and can be used for modeling of smog formation in complex urban areas.

Diagnostic test of predicted height model in Indonesian elderly: a study in an urban area

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Fatmah Fatmah

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Aim In an anthropometric assessment, elderly are frequently unable to measure their height due to mobility and skeletal deformities. An alternative is to use a surrogate value of stature from arm span, knee height, and sitting height. The equations developed for predicting height in Indonesian elderly using these three predictors. The equations put in the nutritional assessment card (NSA of older people. Before the card which is the first new technology in Indonesia will be applied in the community, it should be tested. The study aimed was to conduct diagnostic test of predicted height model in the card compared to actual height.Methods Model validation towards 400 healthy elderly conducted in Jakarta City with cross-sectional design. The study was the second validation test of the model besides Depok City representing semi urban area which was undertaken as the first study.Result Male elderly had higher mean age, height, weight, arm span, knee height, and sitting height as compared to female elderly. The highest correlation between knee height and standing height was similar in women (r = 0.80; P < 0.001 and men (r = 0.78; P < 0.001, and followed by arm span and sitting height. Knee height had the lowest difference with standing height in men (3.13 cm and women (2.79 cm. Knee height had the biggest sensitivity (92.2%, and the highest specificity on sitting height (91.2%.Conclusion Stature prediction equation based on knee-height, arm span, and sitting height are applicable for nutritional status assessment in Indonesian elderly. (Med J Indones 2010;19:199-204Key words: diagnostic test, elderly, predicted height model

Indoor Radon Concentration Related to Different Radon Areas and Indoor Radon Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Juhásová Šenitková, Ingrid; Šál, Jiří

2017-12-01

Indoor radon has been observed in the buildings at areas with different radon risk potential. Preventive measures are based on control of main potential radon sources (soil gas, building material and supplied water) to avoid building of new houses above recommended indoor radon level 200 Bq/m3. Radon risk (index) estimation of individual building site bedrock in case of new house siting and building protection according technical building code are obligatory. Remedial actions in buildings built at high radon risk areas were carried out principally by unforced ventilation and anti-radon insulation. Significant differences were found in the level of radon concentration between rooms where radon reduction techniques were designed and those where it was not designed. The mathematical model based on radon exhalation from soil has been developed to describe the physical processes determining indoor radon concentration. The model is focused on combined radon diffusion through the slab and advection through the gap from sub-slab soil. In this model, radon emanated from building materials is considered not having a significant contribution to indoor radon concentration. Dimensional analysis and Gauss-Newton nonlinear least squares parametric regression were used to simplify the problem, identify essential input variables and find parameter values. The presented verification case study is introduced for real buildings with respect to various underground construction types. Presented paper gives picture of possible mathematical approach to indoor radon concentration prediction.

Opposing Subjective Temporal Experiences in Response to Unpredictable and Predictable Fear-Relevant Stimuli

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Qian Cui

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Previous studies have found that the durations of fear-relevant stimuli were overestimated compared to those of neutral stimuli, even when the fear-relevant stimuli were only anticipated. The current study aimed to investigate the effect of the predictability of fear-relevant stimuli on sub-second temporal estimations. In Experiments 1a and 1b, a randomized design was employed to render the emotional valence of each trial unpredictable. In Experiments 2a and 2b, we incorporated a block design and a cueing paradigm, respectively, to render the emotional stimuli predictable. Compared with the neutral condition, the estimated blank interval was judged as being shorter under the unpredictable fear-relevant condition, while it was judged as being longer under the predictable fear-relevant condition. In other words, the unpredictable and predictable fear-relevant stimuli led to opposing temporal distortions. These results demonstrated that emotions modulate interval perception during different time processing stages.

RFI Math Model programs for predicting intermodulation interference

Science.gov (United States)

Stafford, J. M.

1974-01-01

Receivers operating on a space vehicle or an aircraft having many on-board transmitters are subject to intermodulation interference from mixing in the transmitting antenna systems, the external environment, or the receiver front-ends. This paper presents the techniques utilized in RFI Math Model computer programs that were developed to aid in the prevention of interference by predicting problem areas prior to occurrence. Frequencies and amplitudes of possible intermodulation products generated in the external environment are calculated and compared to receiver sensitivities. Intermodulation products generated in receivers are evaluated to determine the adequacy of preselector ejection.

Do MCI criteria in drug trials accurately identify subjects with predementia Alzheimer's disease?

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, P; Scheltens, P; Verhey, F

2005-01-01

Background: Drugs effective in Alzheimer-type dementia have been tested in subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) because these are supposed to have Alzheimer's disease in the predementia stage. Objectives: To investigate whether MCI criteria used in these drug trials can accurately diagnose subjects with predementia Alzheimer's disease. Methods: MCI criteria of the Gal-Int 11 study, InDDEx study, ADCS memory impairment study, ampakine CX 516 study, piracetam study, and Merck rofecoxib study were applied retrospectively in a cohort of 150 non-demented subjects from a memory clinic. Forty two had progressed to Alzheimer type dementia during a five year follow up period and were considered to have predementia Alzheimer's disease at baseline. Outcome measures were the odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value. Results: The odds ratio of the MCI criteria for predementia Alzheimer's disease varied between 0.84 and 11. Sensitivity varied between 0.46 and 0.83 and positive predictive value between 0.43 and 0.76. None of the criteria combined a high sensitivity with a high positive predictive value. Exclusion criteria for depression led to an increase in positive predictive value and specificity at the cost of sensitivity. In subjects older than 65 years the positive predictive value was higher than in younger subjects. Conclusions: The diagnostic accuracy of MCI criteria used in trials for predementia Alzheimer's disease is low to moderate. Their use may lead to inclusion of many patients who do not have predementia Alzheimer's disease or to exclusion of many who do. Subjects with moderately severe depression should not be excluded from trials in order not to reduce the sensitivity. PMID:16170074

Delineation of somatosensory finger areas using vibrotactile stimulation, an ECoG study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wahnoun, Rémy; Benson, Michelle; Helms-Tillery, Stephen; Adelson, P David

2015-10-01

In surgical planning for epileptic focus resection, functional mapping of eloquent cortex is attained through direct electrical stimulation of the brain. This procedure is uncomfortable, can trigger seizures or nausea, and relies on subjective evaluation. We hypothesize that a method combining vibrotactile stimulation and statistical clustering may provide improved somatosensory mapping. Seven pediatric candidates for surgical resection underwent a task in which their fingers were independently stimulated using a custom designed finger pad, during electrocorticographic monitoring. A cluster-based statistical analysis was then performed to localize the elicited activity on the recording grids. Mid-Gamma clusters (65-115 Hz) arose in areas consistent with anatomical predictions as well as clinical findings, with five subjects presenting a somatotopic organization of the fingers. This process allowed us to delineate finger representation even in patients who were sleeping, with strong interictal activity, or when electrical stimulation did not successfully locate eloquent areas. We suggest that this scheme, relying on the endogenous neural response rather than exogenous electrical activation, could eventually be extended to map other sensory areas and provide a faster and more objective map to better anticipate outcomes of surgical resection.

Development of methods to predict both the dynamic and the pseudo-static response of secondary structures subjected to seismic excitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subudhi, M.; Bezler, P.

1984-01-01

Multiple independent support excitation time history formulations have been used to investigate simplified methods to predict the inertial (or dynamic) component of response as well as the pseudo-static (or static) component of response of secondary structures subjected to seismic excitations. For the dynamic component the independent response spectrum method is used with current industry practice for the modal and direction of excitation combinations being adopted and various procedures for the group combination and sequence being investigated. SRSS combination between support groups is found to yield satisfactory results. For the static component, support grouping by elevation for preliminary design followed by support grouping by attachment point for final design assure overall safety in the design

The sentence verification task: a reliable fMRI protocol for mapping receptive language in individual subjects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanjuan, Ana; Avila, Cesar; Forn, Cristina; Ventura-Campos, Noelia; Rodriguez-Pujadas, Aina; Garcia-Porcar, Maria; Belloch, Vicente; Villanueva, Vicente

2010-01-01

To test the capacity of a sentence verification (SV) task to reliably activate receptive language areas. Presurgical evaluation of language is useful in predicting postsurgical deficits in patients who are candidates for neurosurgery. Productive language tasks have been successfully elaborated, but more conflicting results have been found in receptive language mapping. Twenty-two right-handed healthy controls made true-false semantic judgements of brief sentences presented auditorily. Group maps showed reliable functional activations in the frontal and temporoparietal language areas. At the individual level, the SV task showed activation located in receptive language areas in 100% of the participants with strong left-sided distributions (mean lateralisation index of 69.27). The SV task can be considered a useful tool in evaluating receptive language function in individual subjects. This study is a first step towards designing the fMRI task which may serve to presurgically map receptive language functions. (orig.)

The sentence verification task: a reliable fMRI protocol for mapping receptive language in individual subjects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanjuan, Ana; Avila, Cesar [Universitat Jaume I, Departamento de Psicologia Basica, Clinica y Psicobiologia, Castellon de la Plana (Spain); Hospital La Fe, Unidad de Epilepsia, Servicio de Neurologia, Valencia (Spain); Forn, Cristina; Ventura-Campos, Noelia; Rodriguez-Pujadas, Aina; Garcia-Porcar, Maria [Universitat Jaume I, Departamento de Psicologia Basica, Clinica y Psicobiologia, Castellon de la Plana (Spain); Belloch, Vicente [Hospital La Fe, Eresa, Servicio de Radiologia, Valencia (Spain); Villanueva, Vicente [Hospital La Fe, Unidad de Epilepsia, Servicio de Neurologia, Valencia (Spain)

2010-10-15

To test the capacity of a sentence verification (SV) task to reliably activate receptive language areas. Presurgical evaluation of language is useful in predicting postsurgical deficits in patients who are candidates for neurosurgery. Productive language tasks have been successfully elaborated, but more conflicting results have been found in receptive language mapping. Twenty-two right-handed healthy controls made true-false semantic judgements of brief sentences presented auditorily. Group maps showed reliable functional activations in the frontal and temporoparietal language areas. At the individual level, the SV task showed activation located in receptive language areas in 100% of the participants with strong left-sided distributions (mean lateralisation index of 69.27). The SV task can be considered a useful tool in evaluating receptive language function in individual subjects. This study is a first step towards designing the fMRI task which may serve to presurgically map receptive language functions. (orig.)

NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative uncertainty for seabird diversity metrics in the New York offshore planning area by NOAA Biogeography Branch

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...

Building a profile of subjective well-being for social media users.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lushi; Gong, Tao; Kosinski, Michal; Stillwell, David; Davidson, Robert L

2017-01-01

Subjective well-being includes 'affect' and 'satisfaction with life' (SWL). This study proposes a unified approach to construct a profile of subjective well-being based on social media language in Facebook status updates. We apply sentiment analysis to generate users' affect scores, and train a random forest model to predict SWL using affect scores and other language features of the status updates. Results show that: the computer-selected features resemble the key predictors of SWL as identified in early studies; the machine-predicted SWL is moderately correlated with the self-reported SWL (r = 0.36, p subjective well-being profile can also reflect other psychological traits like depression (r = 0.24, p social media language.

Predicting survey responses: how and why semantics shape survey statistics on organizational behaviour.

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Jan Ketil Arnulf

Full Text Available Some disciplines in the social sciences rely heavily on collecting survey responses to detect empirical relationships among variables. We explored whether these relationships were a priori predictable from the semantic properties of the survey items, using language processing algorithms which are now available as new research methods. Language processing algorithms were used to calculate the semantic similarity among all items in state-of-the-art surveys from Organisational Behaviour research. These surveys covered areas such as transformational leadership, work motivation and work outcomes. This information was used to explain and predict the response patterns from real subjects. Semantic algorithms explained 60-86% of the variance in the response patterns and allowed remarkably precise prediction of survey responses from humans, except in a personality test. Even the relationships between independent and their purported dependent variables were accurately predicted. This raises concern about the empirical nature of data collected through some surveys if results are already given a priori through the way subjects are being asked. Survey response patterns seem heavily determined by semantics. Language algorithms may suggest these prior to administering a survey. This study suggests that semantic algorithms are becoming new tools for the social sciences, opening perspectives on survey responses that prevalent psychometric theory cannot explain.

A novel hybrid evidential belief function-based fuzzy logic model in spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Lang Son city area (Vietnam

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Dieu Tien Bui

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of an integrated evidential belief function (EBF-based fuzzy logic model for spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Lang Son city area (Vietnam. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. Then the landslide inventory map was randomly partitioned as a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, six landslide conditioning factors (slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance to faults, soil type, land use were prepared and fuzzy membership values for these factors classes were estimated using the EBF. Subsequently, fuzzy operators were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were validated and compared using the validation dataset. The results show that the lowest prediction capability is the fuzzy SUM (76.6%. The prediction capability is almost the same for the fuzzy PRODUCT and fuzzy GAMMA models (79.6%. Compared to the frequency-ratio based fuzzy logic models, the EBF-based fuzzy logic models showed better result in both the success rate and prediction rate. The results from this study may be useful for local planner in areas prone to landslides. The modelling approach can be applied for other areas.

Local environmental quality positively predicts breastfeeding in the UK's Millennium Cohort Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Laura J; Sear, Rebecca

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives: Breastfeeding is an important form of parental investment with clear health benefits. Despite this, rates remain low in the UK; understanding variation can therefore help improve interventions. Life history theory suggests that environmental quality may pattern maternal investment, including breastfeeding. We analyse a nationally representative dataset to test two predictions: (i) higher local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of breastfeeding initiation and longer duration; (ii) higher socioeconomic status (SES) provides a buffer against the adverse influences of low local environmental quality. Methodology: We ran factor analysis on a wide range of local-level environmental variables. Two summary measures of local environmental quality were generated by this analysis-one 'objective' (based on an independent assessor's neighbourhood scores) and one 'subjective' (based on respondent's scores). We used mixed-effects regression techniques to test our hypotheses. Results: Higher objective, but not subjective, local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of starting and maintaining breastfeeding over and above individual SES and area-level measures of environmental quality. Higher individual SES is protective, with women from high-income households having relatively high breastfeeding initiation rates and those with high status jobs being more likely to maintain breastfeeding, even in poor environmental conditions. Conclusions and Implications: Environmental quality is often vaguely measured; here we present a thorough investigation of environmental quality at the local level, controlling for individual- and area-level measures. Our findings support a shift in focus away from individual factors and towards altering the landscape of women's decision making contexts when considering behaviours relevant to public health.

Blind prediction exercise on modeling of PHWR fuel at extended burnup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sah, D.N.; Viswanathan, U.K.; Viswanadham, C.S.; Unnikrishnan, K.; Rath, B.N.

2008-01-01

A blind prediction exercise was organised on Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) fuel to investigate the predictive capability of existing codes for their application at extended burnup and to identify areas of improvement. The blind problem for this exercise was based on a PHWR fuel bundle irradiated in Kakrapar Atomic Power Station-I (KAPS-I) up to about 15 000 MWd/tU and subjected to detailed post-irradiation examination (PIE) in the hot cells facility at BARC. Eleven computer codes from seven countries participated in this exercise. The participants provided blind predictions of fuel temperature, fission gas release, internal gas pressure and other performance parameters for the fuel pins. The predictions were compared with the experimental PIE data which included fuel temperature derived from fuel restructuring, fission gas release measured by fuel pin puncturing, internal gas pressure in pin, cladding oxidation and fuel microstructural data. The details of the blind problem and an analysis of the results of blind predictions by the codes vis-a-vis measured data are provided in this paper

Delayed clearance of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins in young, healthy obese subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, M A; Goll, R; Lekahl, S; Moen, O S; Florholmen, J

2015-12-01

Obesity is associated with the metabolic syndrome. The aims were, first, to study the postprandial triglyceride clearance in young, healthy obese subjects and, second, to investigate if fasting triglycerides can predict delayed postprandial triglyceride clearance. Eighteen apparently healthy, obese subjects with no clinical signs of metabolic disturbances participated. Controls were age- and sex-matched, healthy, normal weight subjects. Subclinical markers of metabolic disturbances were assessed by measuring postprandial triglycerides in serum and in chylomicrons by oral fat tolerance test. Postprandial triglyceride clearance for 8 h was assessed indirectly as removal of the lipid from serum during the oral fat tolerance test. Insulin resistance was measured by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Twelve (66%) of the apparently healthy obese individuals had insulin resistance measured by HOMA-IR. There was a delayed clearance of serum triglycerides and chylomicron triglycerides at 6 h when compared with the control group, while, at 8 h, the differences were only detected for the chylomicron triglyceride clearance. Triglyceride response was significantly greater in the obese subjects. Fasting triglycerides in upper normal level predicted a delayed postprandial triglyceride clearance and insulin resistance. In young, apparently healthy obese subjects early metabolic disturbances including insulin resistance and delayed postprandial triglyceride clearance can be detected. Fasting serum triglyceride in upper normal level predicted delayed postprandial triglyceride clearance and insulin resistance. © 2015 World Obesity.

From Motion to Emotion: Accelerometer Data Predict Subjective Experience of Music

Science.gov (United States)

Irrgang, Melanie

2016-01-01

Music is often discussed to be emotional because it reflects expressive movements in audible form. Thus, a valid approach to measure musical emotion could be to assess movement stimulated by music. In two experiments we evaluated the discriminative power of mobile-device generated acceleration data produced by free movement during music listening for the prediction of ratings on the Geneva Emotion Music Scales (GEMS-9). The quality of prediction for different dimensions of GEMS varied between experiments for tenderness (R12(first experiment) = 0.50, R22(second experiment) = 0.39), nostalgia (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.30), wonder (R12 = 0.25, R22 = 0.34), sadness (R12 = 0.24, R22 = 0.35), peacefulness (R12 = 0.20, R22 = 0.35) and joy (R12 = 0.19, R22 = 0.33) and transcendence (R12 = 0.14, R22 = 0.00). For others like power (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.49) and tension (R12 = 0.28, R22 = 0.27) results could be almost reproduced. Furthermore, we extracted two principle components from GEMS ratings, one representing arousal and the other one valence of the experienced feeling. Both qualities, arousal and valence, could be predicted by acceleration data, indicating, that they provide information on the quantity and quality of experience. On the one hand, these findings show how music-evoked movement patterns relate to music-evoked feelings. On the other hand, they contribute to integrate findings from the field of embodied music cognition into music recommender systems. PMID:27415015

From Motion to Emotion: Accelerometer Data Predict Subjective Experience of Music.

Science.gov (United States)

Irrgang, Melanie; Egermann, Hauke

2016-01-01

Music is often discussed to be emotional because it reflects expressive movements in audible form. Thus, a valid approach to measure musical emotion could be to assess movement stimulated by music. In two experiments we evaluated the discriminative power of mobile-device generated acceleration data produced by free movement during music listening for the prediction of ratings on the Geneva Emotion Music Scales (GEMS-9). The quality of prediction for different dimensions of GEMS varied between experiments for tenderness (R12(first experiment) = 0.50, R22(second experiment) = 0.39), nostalgia (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.30), wonder (R12 = 0.25, R22 = 0.34), sadness (R12 = 0.24, R22 = 0.35), peacefulness (R12 = 0.20, R22 = 0.35) and joy (R12 = 0.19, R22 = 0.33) and transcendence (R12 = 0.14, R22 = 0.00). For others like power (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.49) and tension (R12 = 0.28, R22 = 0.27) results could be almost reproduced. Furthermore, we extracted two principle components from GEMS ratings, one representing arousal and the other one valence of the experienced feeling. Both qualities, arousal and valence, could be predicted by acceleration data, indicating, that they provide information on the quantity and quality of experience. On the one hand, these findings show how music-evoked movement patterns relate to music-evoked feelings. On the other hand, they contribute to integrate findings from the field of embodied music cognition into music recommender systems.

The use of sonographic subjective tumor assessment, IOTA logistic regression model 1, IOTA Simple Rules and GI-RADS system in the preoperative prediction of malignancy in women with adnexal masses.

Science.gov (United States)

Koneczny, Jarosław; Czekierdowski, Artur; Florczak, Marek; Poziemski, Paweł; Stachowicz, Norbert; Borowski, Dariusz

2017-01-01

Sonography based methods with various tumor markers are currently used to discriminate the type of adnexal masses. To compare the predictive value of selected sonography-based models along with subjective assessment in ovarian cancer prediction. We analyzed data of 271 women operated because of adnexal masses. All masses were verified by histological examination. Preoperative sonography was performed in all patients and various predictive models includ¬ing IOTA group logistic regression model LR1 (LR1), IOTA simple ultrasound-based rules by IOTA (SR), GI-RADS and risk of malignancy index (RMI3) were used. ROC curves were constructed and respective AUC's with 95% CI's were compared. Of 271 masses 78 proved to be malignant including 6 borderline tumors. LR1 had sensitivity of 91.0%, specificity of 91.2%, AUC = 0.95 (95% CI: 0.92-0.98). Sensitivity for GI-RADS for 271 patients was 88.5% with specificity of 85% and AUC = 0.91 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95). Subjective assessment yielded sensitivity and specificity of 85.9% and 96.9%, respectively with AUC = 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94-0.99). SR were applicable in 236 masses and had sensitivity of 90.6% with specificity of 95.3% and AUC = 0.93 (95% CI 0.89-0.97). RMI3 was calculated only in 104 women who had CA125 available and had sensitivity of 55.3%, specificity of 94% and AUC = 0.85 (95% CI: 0.77-0.93). Although subjective assessment by the ultrasound expert remains the best current method of adnexal tumors preoperative discrimination, the simplicity and high predictive value favor the IOTA SR method, and when not applicable, the IOTA LR1 or GI-RADS models to be primarily and effectively used.

Clinical utility of calf front hoof circumference and maternal intrapelvic area in predicting dystocia in 103 late gestation Holstein-Friesian heifers and cows.

Science.gov (United States)

Hiew, Mark W H; Megahed, Ameer A; Townsend, Jonathan R; Singleton, Wayne L; Constable, Peter D

2016-02-01

The objective of this study was to determine the clinical utility of measuring calf front hoof circumference, maternal intrapelvic area, and selected morphometric values in predicting dystocia in dairy cattle. An observational study using a convenience sample of 103 late-gestation Holstein-Friesian heifers and cows was performed. Intrapelvic height and width of the dam were measured using a pelvimeter, and the intrapelvic area was calculated. Calf front hoof circumference and birth weight were also measured. Data were analyzed using Spearman's correlation coefficient (rs), Mann-Whitney U test, and binary or ordered logistic regression; P dystocia (calving difficulty score = 4 or 5), with sensitivity = 0.50 and specificity = 0.93 at the optimal cutpoint for the ratio (>0.068 cm/cm(2)). Determining the ratio of calf front hoof circumference to maternal intrapelvic area has clinical utility in predicting the calving difficulty score in Holstein-Friesian cattle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved ability of biological and previous caries multimarkers to predict caries disease as revealed by multivariate PLS modelling

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Ericson Thorild

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental caries is a chronic disease with plaque bacteria, diet and saliva modifying disease activity. Here we have used the PLS method to evaluate a multiplicity of such biological variables (n = 88 for ability to predict caries in a cross-sectional (baseline caries and prospective (2-year caries development setting. Methods Multivariate PLS modelling was used to associate the many biological variables with caries recorded in thirty 14-year-old children by measuring the numbers of incipient and manifest caries lesions at all surfaces. Results A wide but shallow gliding scale of one fifth caries promoting or protecting, and four fifths non-influential, variables occurred. The influential markers behaved in the order of plaque bacteria > diet > saliva, with previously known plaque bacteria/diet markers and a set of new protective diet markers. A differential variable patterning appeared for new versus progressing lesions. The influential biological multimarkers (n = 18 predicted baseline caries better (ROC area 0.96 than five markers (0.92 and a single lactobacilli marker (0.7 with sensitivity/specificity of 1.87, 1.78 and 1.13 at 1/3 of the subjects diagnosed sick, respectively. Moreover, biological multimarkers (n = 18 explained 2-year caries increment slightly better than reported before but predicted it poorly (ROC area 0.76. By contrast, multimarkers based on previous caries predicted alone (ROC area 0.88, or together with biological multimarkers (0.94, increment well with a sensitivity/specificity of 1.74 at 1/3 of the subjects diagnosed sick. Conclusion Multimarkers behave better than single-to-five markers but future multimarker strategies will require systematic searches for improved saliva and plaque bacteria markers.

Optimal Multitrial Prediction Combination and Subject-Specific Adaptation for Minimal Training Brain Switch Designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spyrou, L.; Blokland, Y.M.; Farquhar, J.D.R.; Bruhn, J.

2016-01-01

Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) systems are traditionally designed by taking into account user-specific data to enable practical use. More recently, subject independent (SI) classification algorithms have been developed which bypass the subject specific adaptation and enable rapid use of the system.

Optimal multitrial prediction combination and subject-specific adaptation for minimal training brain switch designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spyrou, L.; Blokland, Y.M.; Farquhar, J.D.R.; Bruhn, J.

2016-01-01

Brain-Computer Interface systems are traditionally designed by taking into account user-specific data to enable practical use. More recently, subject independent (SI) classification algorithms have been developed which bypass the subject specific adaptation and enable rapid use of the system. A

[Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

2014-12-01

The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

Debris-flows scale predictions based on basin spatial parameters calculated from Remote Sensing images in Wenchuan earthquake area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Huaizhen; Chi, Tianhe; Liu, Tianyue; Wang, Wei; Yang, Lina; Zhao, Yuan; Shao, Jing; Yao, Xiaojing; Fan, Jianrong

2014-01-01

Debris flow is a common hazard in the Wenchuan earthquake area. Collapse and Landslide Regions (CLR), caused by earthquakes, could be located from Remote Sensing images. CLR are the direct material source regions for debris flow. The Spatial Distribution of Collapse and Landslide Regions (SDCLR) strongly impact debris-flow formation. In order to depict SDCLR, we referred to Strahler's Hypsometric analysis method and developed 3 functional models to depict SDCLR quantitatively. These models mainly depict SDCLR relative to altitude, basin mouth and main gullies of debris flow. We used the integral of functions as the spatial parameters of SDCLR and these parameters were employed during the process of debris-flows scale predictions. Grouping-occurring debris-flows triggered by the rainstorm, which occurred on September 24th 2008 in Beichuan County, Sichuan province China, were selected to build the empirical equations for debris-flows scale predictions. Given the existing data, only debris-flows runout zone parameters (Max. runout distance L and Lateral width B) were estimated in this paper. The results indicate that the predicted results were more accurate when the spatial parameters were used. Accordingly, we suggest spatial parameters of SDCLR should be considered in the process of debris-flows scale prediction and proposed several strategies to prevent debris flow in the future

Ratio of ovarian stroma and total ovarian area by ultrasound in prediction of hyperandrogenemia in reproductive-aged Thai women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a diagnostic test.

Science.gov (United States)

Leerasiri, Pichai; Wongwananuruk, Thanyarat; Rattanachaiyanont, Manee; Indhavivadhana, Suchada; Techatraisak, Kitirat; Angsuwathana, Surasak

2015-02-01

To evaluate the performance of ovarian stromal area to total ovarian area (S/A) ratio for the prediction of biochemical hyperandrogenism in Thai women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A cross-sectional study was performed in 222 reproductive-aged Thai women with PCOS attending the Gynecologic Endocrinology Unit (GEU), Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital from May 2007 to January 2009. The patients were interviewed for medical history and examined for anthropometry and clinical hyperandrogenism. Venous blood samples were obtained for androgen profiles. An ovarian ultrasonogram was obtained via transvaginal or transrectal ultrasonography. The prevalences of clinical and biochemical hyperandrogenism were 48.6% and 81.1%, respectively. The S/A ratio at a cut-off point of 0.33 had modest predictability for hyperandrogenism, namely, 0.537 area under the receiver-operator curve, 36.6% sensitivity, 72.1% specificity, 83.8% positive predictive value (PPV) and 20.9% negative predictive value (NPV). The combination of clinical hyperandrogenism and S/A ratio improved the predictability for biochemical hyperandrogenism, with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 72.1%, 58.1%, 87.8% and 33.3%, respectively. The S/A ratio alone is not a good predictor for biochemical hyperandrogenism in Thai PCOS women attending GEU for menstrual dysfunction. The combination of S/A ratio and clinical hyperandrogenism has better performance than the S/A ratio alone to predict biochemical hyperandrogenism. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2014 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AS A FACTOR FOR BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION

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Daniel BRÎNDESCU – OLARIU

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The current study evaluates the potential of the labor productivity in predicting corporate bankruptcy. The population subjected to the analysis included all companies form Timis County with yearly sales of over 2200 Euros. The interest for the labor productivity was based on the recommendations of the scientific literature, as well as on the availability of information concerning its values to all stakeholders. The event on which the research was focused was represented by the manifestation of bankruptcy 2 years after the date of the financial statements of reference. All tests were performed over a paired sample of 1424 companies. The methodology employed in evaluating the potential of the labor productivity was based on the general accuracy ensured by the ratio (63.2% and the Area Under the ROC Curve (0.665. The results confirm the practical utility of the labor productivity in the prediction of bankruptcy.

TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IN 3013 CONTAINERS IN K AREA MATERIAL STORAGE (KAMS) FACILITY USING REGRESSION METHODS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, N

2008-01-01

3013 containers are designed in accordance with the DOE-STD-3013-2004. These containers are qualified to store plutonium (Pu) bearing materials such as PuO2 for 50 years. DOT shipping packages such as the 9975 are used to store the 3013 containers in the K-Area Material Storage (KAMS) facility at Savannah River Site (SRS). DOE-STD-3013-2004 requires that a comprehensive surveillance program be set up to ensure that the 3013 container design parameters are not violated during the long term storage. To ensure structural integrity of the 3013 containers, thermal analyses using finite element models were performed to predict the contents and component temperatures for different but well defined parameters such as storage ambient temperature, PuO 2 density, fill heights, weights, and thermal loading. Interpolation is normally used to calculate temperatures if the actual parameter values are different from the analyzed values. A statistical analysis technique using regression methods is proposed to develop simple polynomial relations to predict temperatures for the actual parameter values found in the containers. The analysis shows that regression analysis is a powerful tool to develop simple relations to assess component temperatures

Low-grade astrocytoma: surgical outcomes in eloquent versus non-eloquent brain areas

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André de Macedo Bianco

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A retrospective study of 81 patients with low-grade astrocytoma (LGA comparing the efficacy of aggressive versus less aggressive surgery in eloquent and non-eloquent brain areas was conducted. Extent of surgical resection was analyzed to assess overall survival (OS and progression- free survival (PFS. Degree of tumor resection was classified as gross total resection (GTR, subtotal resection (STR or biopsy. GTR, STR and biopsy in patients with tumors in non-eloquent areas were performed in 31, 48 and 21% subjects, whereas in patients with tumors in eloquent areas resections were 22.5, 35 and 42.5%. Overall survival was 4.7 and 1.9 years in patients with tumors in non-eloquent brain areas submitted to GTR/STR and biopsy (p=0.013, whereas overall survival among patients with tumors in eloquent area was 4.5 and 2.1 years (p=0.33. Improved outcome for adult patients with LGA is predicted by more aggressive surgery in both eloquent and non-eloquent brain areas.

Functional brain segmentation using inter-subject correlation in fMRI.

Science.gov (United States)

Kauppi, Jukka-Pekka; Pajula, Juha; Niemi, Jari; Hari, Riitta; Tohka, Jussi

2017-05-01

The human brain continuously processes massive amounts of rich sensory information. To better understand such highly complex brain processes, modern neuroimaging studies are increasingly utilizing experimental setups that better mimic daily-life situations. A new exploratory data-analysis approach, functional segmentation inter-subject correlation analysis (FuSeISC), was proposed to facilitate the analysis of functional magnetic resonance (fMRI) data sets collected in these experiments. The method provides a new type of functional segmentation of brain areas, not only characterizing areas that display similar processing across subjects but also areas in which processing across subjects is highly variable. FuSeISC was tested using fMRI data sets collected during traditional block-design stimuli (37 subjects) as well as naturalistic auditory narratives (19 subjects). The method identified spatially local and/or bilaterally symmetric clusters in several cortical areas, many of which are known to be processing the types of stimuli used in the experiments. The method is not only useful for spatial exploration of large fMRI data sets obtained using naturalistic stimuli, but also has other potential applications, such as generation of a functional brain atlases including both lower- and higher-order processing areas. Finally, as a part of FuSeISC, a criterion-based sparsification of the shared nearest-neighbor graph was proposed for detecting clusters in noisy data. In the tests with synthetic data, this technique was superior to well-known clustering methods, such as Ward's method, affinity propagation, and K-means ++. Hum Brain Mapp 38:2643-2665, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Vegetation cover, tidal amplitude and land area predict short-term marsh vulnerability in Coastal Louisiana

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Schoolmaster, Donald; Stagg, Camille L.; Sharp, Leigh Anne; McGinnis, Tommy S.; Wood, Bernard; Piazza, Sarai

2018-01-01

The loss of coastal marshes is a topic of great concern, because these habitats provide tangible ecosystem services and are at risk from sea-level rise and human activities. In recent years, significant effort has gone into understanding and modeling the relationships between the biological and physical factors that contribute to marsh stability. Simulation-based process models suggest that marsh stability is the product of a complex feedback between sediment supply, flooding regime and vegetation response, resulting in elevation gains sufficient to match the combination of relative sea-level rise and losses from erosion. However, there have been few direct, empirical tests of these models, because long-term datasets that have captured sufficient numbers of marsh loss events in the context of a rigorous monitoring program are rare. We use a multi-year data set collected by the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) that includes transitions of monitored vegetation plots to open water to build and test a predictive model of near-term marsh vulnerability. We found that despite the conclusions of previous process models, elevation change had no ability to predict the transition of vegetated marsh to open water. However, we found that the processes that drive elevation change were significant predictors of transitions. Specifically, vegetation cover in prior year, land area in the surrounding 1 km2 (an estimate of marsh fragmentation), and the interaction of tidal amplitude and position in tidal frame were all significant factors predicting marsh loss. This suggests that 1) elevation change is likely better a predictor of marsh loss at time scales longer than we consider in this study and 2) the significant predictive factors affect marsh vulnerability through pathways other than elevation change, such as resistance to erosion. In addition, we found that, while sensitivity of marsh vulnerability to the predictive factors varied spatially across coastal Louisiana

Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2016-01-01

Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

2010-07-01

This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO{sub 2} exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO{sub 2} fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO{sub 2} uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO{sub 2} exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

2010-01-01

This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO 2 exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO 2 fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO 2 uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO 2 exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

Cytogenetic analysis chromosomal status of subjects from the regions in the vicinity of uranium-contaminated areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jovicic, D.; Milacie, S.; Kovacevic, R.; Petrovic, I.

2004-01-01

The past application of nuclear technology has brought about free emission of numerous Due to the military application of the depleted uranium (DU) in our country, the problem of its radioactivity and hemo toxicity if actualized. Likewise every heavy metal, its is highly toxic and, in addition to it, also radioactive: Interaction of the water-soluble uranium forms with soil is an important effect. In this way, it penetrates into food chain and endangers human health. The study was aimed at determining possible karyotype genotoxic effects in individuals from the regions close to the contaminated areas. Biological dosimetry was performed using modified Moorthead's micromethod. Our studies included the targeted group of 29 patients from the affected regions. The subjects were averagely aged 39.5±2.8 years. Average age of the control group (k), unexposed to the effects of the known genotoxic agents comprising 22 individuals was 28.3±1.2 years. The presented data evidenced that increased incidence of the chromosomal aberrations was found in 6 subjects,accounting for 20.6%. Dicentric type changes were evidence, as well ring chromosomes and eccentric fragments, which are, at the same time the most frequent aberrations. The changes are considered reparable aberrations accounting for 2-3% in metaphases of the unexposed individuals. Statistical data processing evidenced significant difference (p<0.005) between structural chromosomal aberrations in the studied and control groups, as well as in the number of chromatid aberrations (p<0.05).Based on the obtained data it may be concluded that human karyotype changes were present in the studied group, resulting from interaction of ionizing irradiation and other genotoxic agents, with possibility of potent synergistic effects. It is necessary to stress the importance of further monitoring and control of the general population health, particularly due to possible late genetic effects that may affect future generations. (Author) 10

Broca's region and Visual Word Form Area activation differ during a predictive Stroop task

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wallentin, Mikkel; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Skakkebæk, Anne

2015-01-01

displayed in green or red (incongruent vs congruent colors). One of the colors, however, was presented three times as often as the other, making it possible to study both congruency and frequency effects independently. Auditory stimuli saying “GREEN” or “RED” had the same distribution, making it possible...... to study frequency effects across modalities. We found significant behavioral effects of both incongruency and frequency. A significant effect (p effect of frequency was observed and no interaction. Conjoined effects of incongruency...... and frequency were found in parietal regions as well as in the Visual Word Form Area (VWFA). No interaction between perceptual modality and frequency was found in VWFA suggesting that the region is not strictly visual. These findings speak against a strong version of the prediction error processing hypothesis...

Predicting subjective vitality and performance in sports: the role of passion and achievement goals.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chiung-Huang

2010-06-01

The major purpose of this study was to test the hypothesized paths from dualistic passions through achievement goals to subjective vitality and performance in sports. 645 high school athletes participated. The proposed structural equation model, with relationships between dualistic passions and subjective vitality and sports performance mediated by achievement goals, fit the data well, especially for mastery-approach and performance-approach goals. Harmonious and obsessive passions may lead athletes to high performance via the adoption of mastery-approach goals. However, these passions seem to have two paths influencing personal functioning: direct effects make players feel energetic, and indirect effects on subjective vitality through adoption of mastery-approach and performance-approach goals.

Subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruderer Enzler, Heidi; Diekmann, Andreas; Meyer, Reto

2014-01-01

Why do people sometimes refrain from saving energy even if it would pay off in monetary terms? Subjective discount rates present one possible explanation for this lack of foresight, but little is known about their level and reliability in the general population. With regard to behavior, persons with lower discount rates are expected to accept additional costs upfront more readily than those with higher discount rates. Based on a representative nation-wide study, the Swiss Environmental Survey 2007, and a follow-up survey, our analyses reveal that on average subjective discount rates are well above market interest rates and moderately stable over a time interval of four years. Income and education are negatively correlated with discount rates. Contrary to expectations, we did not find convincing support for an impact of discount rates on energy saving behavior. - Highlights: • Results of a large panel study in Switzerland. • Mean subjective discount rates in population are well above market interest rates. • Subjective discount rates are moderately stable over four years. • Theory suggests impact of subjective discount rates on energy saving behavior. • However, subjective discount rates do not contribute to explanation of energy saving behavior

Interaction between physiological and subjective states predicts the effect of a judging panel on the postures of cellists in performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi eEndo

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of a panel of judges on the movements and postures of cellists in performance. 24 expert cellists played a short piece of music, to a metronome beat, in the presence and absence of the panel. Kinematic analyses showed that in the presence of the panel the temporal execution of left arm shifting movements became less variable and closer to the metronome beat. In contrast, the panel's presence had no reliable effect on their spatial accuracy. A detailed postural analysis indicated that left elbow angle during execution of a given high note was correlated with level of heart rate, though the nature of this correlation was systematically affected by the relevant participant's subjective state: if anxious, a higher heart rate correlated with a more flexed elbow, if not anxious then with a more extended elbow. Our results suggest a change in physiological state alone does not reliably predict a change in behaviour in performing cellists, which instead depends on the interaction between physiological state and subjective experience of anxiety. This highlights a need to distinguish performance anxiety from physiological arousal, to which end we advocate currency for the specific term performance arousal to describe heightened physiological activity in a performer.

Bioavailability of elemental iron powders to rats is less than bakery-grade ferrous sulfate and predicted by iron solubility and particle surface area.

Science.gov (United States)

Swain, James H; Newman, Samuel M; Hunt, Janet R

2003-11-01

Foods are fortified with elemental forms of iron to reduce iron deficiency. However, the nutritional efficacy of current, commercially produced elemental iron powders has not been verified. We determined the bioavailability of six commercial elemental iron powders and examined how physicochemistry influences bioavailability. Relative biological value (RBV) of the iron powders was determined using a hemoglobin repletion/slope ratio method, treating iron-deficient rats with repletion diets fortified with graded quantities of iron powders, bakery-grade ferrous sulfate or no added iron. Iron powders were assessed physicochemically by measuring iron solubility in hydrochloric acid at pH 1.0 and 1.7, surface area by nitrogen gas adsorption and surface microstructure by electron microscopy. Bioavailability from the iron powders, based on absolute iron intake, was significantly less than from FeSO4 (100%; P Electrolytic (54%; A-131, U.S.) > Electrolytic (46%; Electrolytic Iron, India) > H-Reduced (42%; AC-325, U.S.) > Reduced (24%; ATOMET 95SP, Canada) > CO-Reduced (21%; RSI-325, Sweden). Solubility testing of the iron powders resulted in different relative rankings and better RBV predictability with increasing time at pH 1.7 (R2 = 0.65 at 150 min). The prediction was improved with less time and lower pH (R2 = 0.82, pH 1.0 at 30 min). Surface area, ranging from 90 to 370 m2/kg, was also highly predictive of RBV (R2 = 0.80). Bioavailability of iron powders is less than bakery-grade ferrous sulfate and varies up to three times among different commercial forms. Solubility at pH 1.0 and surface area were predictive of iron bioavailability in rats.

Spouse's subjective social status predicts older adults' prospective cognitive functioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fan; Fung, Helene; Kwok, Timothy

2017-12-06

The current study aims to investigate the association between subjective social status (SSS) and prospective cognitive functioning of older adults and their spouses, and to explore the potential mediating roles of health habits and physical activities in this association. Using the longitudinal data of 512 pairs of community-dwelling older couples aged 65-91 years (M = 72.2 ± 4.6), we tested the effects of SSS in cognitive functioning using an Actor-Partner Interdependence Model. SSS was measured by a self-anchoring social ladder, and cognitive functioning was measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination at baseline and 4-year follow-up. Socioeconomic status (i.e. education) was tested as a moderator, and physical activity (measured by the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly) as well as health habits (i.e. tobacco and alcohol consumption) were included as potential mediators. A partner effect of SSS was found only in the low-education group, in which the wife's higher level of SSS in the community was associated with the husband's better cognitive functioning in the follow-up. A small proportion of this effect was found to be partially mediated by participation in housework, such that the wife's higher SSS was associated with the husband's increased housework activity, which was related to higher prospective cognitive functioning. By examining the dyadic effects of SSS with a longitudinal design, our findings extended the understanding on how subjective social status influenced older couples' cognitive health, and provided evidence-based insights for future studies on cognitive health in later life.

Using the area under the curve to reduce measurement error in predicting young adult blood pressure from childhood measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Nancy R; Rosner, Bernard A; Chen, Wei; Srinivasan, Sathanur R; Berenson, Gerald S

2004-11-30

Tracking correlations of blood pressure, particularly childhood measures, may be attenuated by within-person variability. Combining multiple measurements can reduce this error substantially. The area under the curve (AUC) computed from longitudinal growth curve models can be used to improve the prediction of young adult blood pressure from childhood measures. Quadratic random-effects models over unequally spaced repeated measures were used to compute the area under the curve separately within the age periods 5-14 and 20-34 years in the Bogalusa Heart Study. This method adjusts for the uneven age distribution and captures the underlying or average blood pressure, leading to improved estimates of correlation and risk prediction. Tracking correlations were computed by race and gender, and were approximately 0.6 for systolic, 0.5-0.6 for K4 diastolic, and 0.4-0.6 for K5 diastolic blood pressure. The AUC can also be used to regress young adult blood pressure on childhood blood pressure and childhood and young adult body mass index (BMI). In these data, while childhood blood pressure and young adult BMI were generally directly predictive of young adult blood pressure, childhood BMI was negatively correlated with young adult blood pressure when childhood blood pressure was in the model. In addition, racial differences in young adult blood pressure were reduced, but not eliminated, after controlling for childhood blood pressure, childhood BMI, and young adult BMI, suggesting that other genetic or lifestyle factors contribute to this difference. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Visceral fat area predicts survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Nault, Jean-Charles; Pigneur, Frédéric; Nelson, Anaïs Charles; Costentin, Charlotte; Tselikas, Lambros; Katsahian, Sandrine; Diao, Guoqing; Laurent, Alexis; Mallat, Ariane; Duvoux, Christophe; Luciani, Alain; Decaens, Thomas

2015-10-01

Anthropometric measurements have been linked to resistance to anti-angiogenic treatment and survival. Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib or brivanib in 2008-2011 were included in this retrospective study. Anthropometric measurements were assessed using computed tomography and were correlated with drug toxicity, radiological response, and overall survival. 52 patients were included, Barcelona Clinic Liver Classification B (38%) and C (62%), with a mean value of α-fetoprotein of 29,554±85,654 ng/mL, with a median overall survival of 10.5 months. Sarcopenia was associated with a greater rate of hand-foot syndrome (P=0.049). Modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (mRECIST) and Choi criteria were significantly associated with survival, but RECIST criteria were not. An absence of hand-foot syndrome and high-visceral fat area were associated with progressive disease as assessed by RECIST and mRECIST criteria. In multivariate analyses, high visceral fat area (HR=3.6; P=0.002), low lean body mass (HR=2.4; P=0.015), and presence of hand-foot syndrome (HR=1.8; P=0.004) were significantly associated with overall survival. In time-dependent multivariate analyses; only high visceral fat area was associated with survival. Visceral fat area is associated with survival and seems to be a predictive marker for primary resistance to tyrosine kinase inhibitors in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

2016-01-15

Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying predictive capability of electronic health records for the most harmful breast cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Yirong; Fan, Jun; Peissig, Peggy; Berg, Richard; Tafti, Ahmad Pahlavan; Yin, Jie; Yuan, Ming; Page, David; Cox, Jennifer; Burnside, Elizabeth S.

2018-03-01

Improved prediction of the "most harmful" breast cancers that cause the most substantive morbidity and mortality would enable physicians to target more intense screening and preventive measures at those women who have the highest risk; however, such prediction models for the "most harmful" breast cancers have rarely been developed. Electronic health records (EHRs) represent an underused data source that has great research and clinical potential. Our goal was to quantify the value of EHR variables in the "most harmful" breast cancer risk prediction. We identified 794 subjects who had breast cancer with primary non-benign tumors with their earliest diagnosis on or after 1/1/2004 from an existing personalized medicine data repository, including 395 "most harmful" breast cancer cases and 399 "least harmful" breast cancer cases. For these subjects, we collected EHR data comprised of 6 components: demographics, diagnoses, symptoms, procedures, medications, and laboratory results. We developed two regularized prediction models, Ridge Logistic Regression (Ridge-LR) and Lasso Logistic Regression (Lasso-LR), to predict the "most harmful" breast cancer one year in advance. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to assess model performance. We observed that the AUCs of Ridge-LR and Lasso-LR models were 0.818 and 0.839 respectively. For both the Ridge-LR and LassoLR models, the predictive performance of the whole EHR variables was significantly higher than that of each individual component (pbreast cancer, providing the possibility to personalize care for those women at the highest risk in clinical practice.

Applied predictive control

CERN Document Server

Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

2002-01-01

The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

Twenty-Four-Hour Central Pulse Pressure for Cardiovascular Events Prediction in a Low-Cardiovascular-Risk Population: Results From the Bordeaux Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Cremer, Antoine; Boulestreau, Romain; Gaillard, Prune; Lainé, Marion; Papaioannou, Georgios; Gosse, Philippe

2018-02-23

Central blood pressure (BP) is a promising marker to identify subjects with higher cardiovascular risk than expected by traditional risk factors. Significant results have been obtained in populations with high cardiovascular risk, but little is known about low-cardiovascular-risk patients, although the differences between central and peripheral BP (amplification) are usually greater in this population. The study aim was to evaluate central BP over 24 hours for cardiovascular event prediction in hypertensive subjects with low cardiovascular risk. Peripheral and central BPs were recorded during clinical visits and over 24 hours in hypertensive patients with low cardiovascular risk (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation ≤5%). Our primary end point is the occurrence of a cardiovascular event during follow-up. To assess the potential interest in central pulse pressure over 24 hours, we performed Cox proportional hazard models analysis and comparison of area under the curves using the contrast test for peripheral and central BP. A cohort of 703 hypertensive subjects from Bordeaux were included. After the first 24 hours of BP measurement, the subjects were then followed up for an average of 112.5±70 months. We recorded 65 cardiovascular events during follow-up. Amplification was found to be significantly associated with cardiovascular events when added to peripheral 24-hour pulse pressure ( P =0.0259). The area under the curve of 24-hour central pulse pressure is significantly more important than area under the curve of office BP ( P =0.0296), and there is a trend of superiority with the area under the curve of peripheral 24-hour pulse pressure. Central pulse pressure over 24 hours improves the prediction of cardiovascular events for hypertensive patients with low cardiovascular risk compared to peripheral pulse pressure. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Prediction model for carbonation depth of concrete subjected to freezing-thawing cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Qian Hui; Li, Qiang; Guan, Xiao; Xian Zou, Ying

2018-03-01

Through the indoor simulation test of the concrete durability under the coupling effect of freezing-thawing and carbonation, the variation regularity of concrete neutralization depth under freezing-thawing and carbonation was obtained. Based on concrete carbonation mechanism, the relationship between the air diffusion coefficient and porosity in concrete was analyzed and the calculation method of porosity in Portland cement concrete and fly ash cement concrete was investigated, considering the influence of the freezing-thawing damage on the concrete diffusion coefficient. Finally, a prediction model of carbonation depth of concrete under freezing-thawing circumstance was established. The results obtained using this prediction model agreed well with the experimental test results, and provided a theoretical reference and basis for the concrete durability analysis under multi-factor environments.

Subjective Video Quality Assessment in H.264/AVC Video Coding Standard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. Miličević

2012-11-01

Full Text Available This paper seeks to provide an approach for subjective video quality assessment in the H.264/AVC standard. For this purpose a special software program for the subjective assessment of quality of all the tested video sequences is developed. It was developed in accordance with recommendation ITU-T P.910, since it is suitable for the testing of multimedia applications. The obtained results show that in the proposed selective intra prediction and optimized inter prediction algorithm there is a small difference in picture quality (signal-to-noise ratio between decoded original and modified video sequences.

Building a profile of subjective well-being for social media users

Science.gov (United States)

Kosinski, Michal; Stillwell, David; Davidson, Robert L.

2017-01-01

Subjective well-being includes ‘affect’ and ‘satisfaction with life’ (SWL). This study proposes a unified approach to construct a profile of subjective well-being based on social media language in Facebook status updates. We apply sentiment analysis to generate users’ affect scores, and train a random forest model to predict SWL using affect scores and other language features of the status updates. Results show that: the computer-selected features resemble the key predictors of SWL as identified in early studies; the machine-predicted SWL is moderately correlated with the self-reported SWL (r = 0.36, p social media language. PMID:29135991

Iron, folacin, vitamin B12 and zinc status and immune response in elderly subjects in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henry-Christian, J.R.

1986-01-01

The iron, folacin, vitamin B 12 , and zinc status of a group of economically and socially disadvantaged elderly persons in the Washington Metropolitan Area was evaluated. Factors related to deficiencies of these nutrients, the relationships between the status of these nutrients and cell-mediated immunity, and the relationships of iron, folacin and vitamin B 12 status to hemoglobin levels in the subjects were also examined. It was also determined whether there were any interactions among iron, folacin, vitamin B 12 and zinc status in their relationships to cell-mediated immunity. Socio-demographic and nutritional data on the subjects were obtained using a questionnaire. Dietary data were obtained using a dietary record. A fasting blood sample was drawn and the levels of ferritin, folate and vitamin B 12 , and the erythrocyte levels of folate were determined by radioassay. Plasma and hair zinc levels were determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Cell-mediated immune response was determined by transformation of peripheral blood lymphocytes after stimulation by mitogens, and by allogenic lymphocytes in the mixed lymphocyte reaction

Movement prediction using accelerometers in a human population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xiao, L.; He, Bing; Koster, A

2016-01-01

We introduce statistical methods for predicting the types of human activity at sub-second resolution using triaxial accelerometry data. The major innovation is that we use labeled activity data from some subjects to predict the activity labels of other subjects. To achieve this, we normalize the ...... as those obtained using their own labeled dictionaries. These findings indicate that prediction of activity types for data collected during natural activities of daily living may actually be possible. © 2015, The International Biometric Society...

Behavioral lifetime of human auditory sensory memory predicted by physiological measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Z L; Williamson, S J; Kaufman, L

1992-12-04

Noninvasive magnetoencephalography makes it possible to identify the cortical area in the human brain whose activity reflects the decay of passive sensory storage of information about auditory stimuli (echoic memory). The lifetime for decay of the neuronal activation trace in primary auditory cortex was found to predict the psychophysically determined duration of memory for the loudness of a tone. Although memory for the loudness of a specific tone is lost, the remembered loudness decays toward the global mean of all of the loudnesses to which a subject is exposed in a series of trials.

Energy data base: subject thesaurus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redford, J.S.

1981-10-01

The technical staff of the DOE Technical Information Center, during its subject indexing activities, develops and structures a vocabulary that allows consistent machine storage and retrieval of information necessary to the accomplishment of the DOE mission. This thesaurus incorporates that structured vocabulary. The terminology of this thesaurus is used for the subject control of information announced in DOE Energy Research Abstracts, Energy Abstracts for Policy Analysis, and various update journals and bulletins in specialized areas. This terminology also facilitates subject searching of the DOE Energy Data Base on the DOE/RECON on-line retrieval system and on other commercial retrieval systems. The rapid expansion of the DOE's activities will result in a commitant thesaurus expansion as information relating to new activities is indexed. Only the terms used in the indexing of documents at the Technical Information Center to date are included

Does climate undermine subjective well-being? A 58-nation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Ronald; Van de Vliert, Evert

2011-08-01

The authors test predictions from climato-economic theories of culture that climate and wealth interact in their influence on psychological processes. Demanding climates (defined as colder than temperate and hotter than temperate climates) create potential threats for humans. If these demands can be met by available economic resources, individuals experience challenging opportunities for self-expression and personal growth and consequently will report lowest levels of ill-being. If threatening climatic demands cannot be met by resources, resulting levels of reported ill-being will be highest. These predictions are confirmed in nation-level means of health complaints, burnout, anxiety, and depression across 58 societies. Climate, wealth, and their interaction together account for 35% of the variation in overall subjective ill-being, even when controlling for known predictors of subjective well-being. Further investigations of the process suggest that cultural individualism does not mediate these effects, but subjective well-being may function as a mediator of the impact of ecological variables on ill-being.

Prediction model for high glycated hemoglobin concentration among ethnic Chinese in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lee Bai-Chin

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This study aimed to construct a prediction model to identify subjects with high glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c levels by incorporating anthropometric, lifestyle, clinical, and biochemical information in a large cross-sectional ethnic Chinese population in Taiwan from a health checkup center. Methods The prediction model was derived from multivariate logistic regression, and we evaluated the performance of the model in identifying the cases with high HbA1c levels (> = 7.0%. In total 17,773 participants (age > = 30 years were recruited and 323 participants (1.8% had high HbA1c levels. The study population was divided randomly into two parts, with 80% as the derivation data and 20% as the validation data. Results The point-based clinical model, including age (maximal 8 points, sex (1 point, family history (3 points, body mass index (2 points, waist circumference (4 points, and systolic blood pressure (3 points reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.723 (95% confidence interval, 0.677- 0.769 in the validation data. Adding biochemical measures such as triglycerides and HDL cholesterol improved the prediction power (AUC, 0.770 [0.723 - 0.817], P = Conclusions A prediction model was constructed for the prevalent risk of high HbA1c, which could be useful in identifying high risk subjects for diabetes among ethnic Chinese in Taiwan.

Predicting the Impact of Urban Green Areas on Microclimate Changes of Mashhad Residential Areas during the Hottest Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

zahra karimian

2017-09-01

between receptors was obtained at 13 hour. The trend of relative humidity changes was very similar in both residential sites. In these two sites the most differences in the relative humidity was obtained at 12 oclock.. In addition, the trend of Predicted Mean Vote (PMV in Andisheh residential block showed that these changes in central and south-west part of the site were similar. The simulation with vegetation in the sites, also, showed that the trend of temperature and relative humidity changes were similar. The trends of temperature changes in residential site, Hesabi, in the defined receptors were very similar. So that temperature increased from 12 oclock to 15. While the trend of relative humidity changes was quite the reverse. This study results showed that the difference in temperature, relative humidity and PMV between measured and simulated data were minimal in both residential sites. Moreover, the data comparison of PMV indicated that in both residential sites, despite of simulation with vegetation, the human thermal comfort did not improve, so that these sites were in the range of extreme heat stress. There are several reasons to justify this issue, such as the percentage and the type of vegetation, factors related to the topography and geography of area, building distribution and density, type and color of the building materials and surfaces, etc. However, in this part of the study, other factors were constant, except vegetation. It seems that with increase of percentage and the ratio of vegetation, changes in temperature, relative humidity and other micro-climate factors, are created, but sometimes for the reasons stated, the temperature during the hottest period of the year is too high so that increase in vegetation will have little impact on outdoor thermal comfort. It might be the simulated area on these sites as well as the type and the ratio of the selected species to reduce the temperature and increase the relative humidity have been not adequately

Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

OpenAIRE

Magister, Tone

2009-01-01

The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

Vision as subjective perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reppas, J.B.; Dale, A.; Sereno, M.; Tootell, R.

1996-01-01

The human brain is not very different of the monkey's one: at least, its visual cortex is organized as a similar scheme. Specialized areas in the movement analysis are found and others in the forms perception. In this work, the author tries to answer to the following questions: 1)why so many visual areas? What are exactly their role in vision? Thirteen years of experimentation have not allowed to answer to these questions. The cerebral NMR imaging gives the opportunity of understanding the subjective perception of the visual world. One step which is particularly described in this work is to know how the visual cortex reacts to the optical illusions. (O.M.)

Tooth width predictions in a sample of Black South Africans.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, M I; Seedat, A K; Hlongwa, P

2007-07-01

Space analysis during the mixed dentition requires prediction of the mesiodistal widths of the unerupted permanent canines and premolars and prediction tables and equations may be used for this purpose. The Tanaka and Johnston prediction equations, which were derived from a North American White sample, is one example which is widely used. This prediction equation may be inapplicable to other race groups due to racial tooth size variability. Therefore the purpose of this study was to derive prediction equations that would be applicable to Black South African subjects. One hundred and ten pre-treatment study casts of Black South African subjects were analysed from the Department of Orthodontics' records at the University of Limpopo. The sample was equally divided by gender with all subjects having Class I molar relationship and relatively well aligned teeth. The mesiodistal widths of the maxillary and mandibular canines and premolars were measured with a digital vernier calliper and compared with the measurements predicted with the Tanaka and Johnston equations. The relationship between the measured and predicted values were analysed by correlation and regression analyses. The results indicated that the Tanaka and Johnston prediction equations were not fully applicable to the Black South African sample. The equations tended to underpredict the male sample, while slight overprediction was observed in the female sample. Therefore, new equations were formulated and proposed that would be accurate for Black subjects.

[Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

2017-12-01

The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

Right Brodmann area 18 predicts tremor arrest after Vim radiosurgery: a voxel-based morphometry study.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuleasca, Constantin; Witjas, Tatiana; Van de Ville, Dimitri; Najdenovska, Elena; Verger, Antoine; Girard, Nadine; Champoudry, Jerome; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Cuadra, Meritxell Bach; Levivier, Marc; Guedj, Eric; Régis, Jean

2018-03-01

Drug-resistant essential tremor (ET) can benefit from open standard stereotactic procedures, such as deep-brain stimulation or radiofrequency thalamotomy. Non-surgical candidates can be offered either high-focused ultrasound (HIFU) or radiosurgery (RS). All procedures aim to target the same thalamic site, the ventro-intermediate nucleus (e.g., Vim). The mechanisms by which tremor stops after Vim RS or HIFU remain unknown. We used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) on pretherapeutic neuroimaging data and assessed which anatomical site would best correlate with tremor arrest 1 year after Vim RS. Fifty-two patients (30 male, 22 female; mean age 71.6 years, range 49-82) with right-sided ET benefited from left unilateral Vim RS in Marseille, France. Targeting was performed in a uniform manner, using 130 Gy and a single 4-mm collimator. Neurological (pretherapeutic and 1 year after) and neuroimaging (baseline) assessments were completed. Tremor score on the treated hand (TSTH) at 1 year after Vim RS was included in a statistical parametric mapping analysis of variance (ANOVA) model as a continuous variable with pretherapeutic neuroimaging data. Pretherapeutic gray matter density (GMD) was further correlated with TSTH improvement. No a priori hypothesis was used in the statistical model. The only statistically significant region was right Brodmann area (BA) 18 (visual association area V2, p = 0.05, cluster size K c  = 71). Higher baseline GMD correlated with better TSTH improvement at 1 year after Vim RS (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient = 0.002). Routine baseline structural neuroimaging predicts TSTH improvement 1 year after Vim RS. The relevant anatomical area is the right visual association cortex (BA 18, V2). The question whether visual areas should be included in the targeting remains open.

Assessment of emerging biomarkers of liver injury in human subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Schomaker, Shelli; Warner, Roscoe; Bock, Jeff; Johnson, Kent; Potter, David; Van Winkle, Joyce; Aubrecht, Jiri

2013-04-01

Hepatotoxicity remains a major challenge in drug development. Although alanine aminotransferase (ALT) remains the gold standard biomarker of liver injury, alternative biomarker strategies to better predict the potential for severe drug-induced liver injury (DILI) are essential. In this study, we evaluated the utility of glutamate dehydrogenase (GLDH), purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP), malate dehydrogenase (MDH), and paraxonase 1 (PON1) as indicators of liver injury in cohorts of human subjects, including healthy subjects across age and gender, subjects with a variety of liver impairments, and several cases of acetaminophen poisoning. In the healthy subjects, levels of GLDH and MDH were not affected by age or gender. Reference ranges for GLDH and MDH in healthy subjects were 1-10 and 79-176U/L, respectively. In contrast, the levels of PON1 and PNP were not consistent across cohorts of healthy subjects. Furthermore, GLDH and MDH had a strong correlation with elevated ALT levels and possessed a high predictive power for liver injury, as determined by ROC analysis. In contrast, PON1 and PNP did not detect liver injury in our study. Finally, evaluation of patients with acetaminophen-induced liver injury provided evidence that both GLDH and MDH might have utility as biomarkers of DILI in humans. This study is the first to evaluate GLDH, MDH, PON1, and PNP in a large number of human subjects and, and it provides an impetus for prospective clinical studies to fully evaluate the diagnostic value of GLDH and MDH for detection of liver injury.

Changes in Pilot Behavior with Predictive System Status Information

Science.gov (United States)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1998-01-01

Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, changes in pilot behavior associated with using this predictive information have not been ascertained. The study described here quantified these changes using three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and three initial time intervals until a parameter alert range was reached (ITIs) (1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes). With predictive information, subjects accomplished most of their tasks before an alert occurred. Subjects organized the time they did their tasks by locus-of-control with no predictive information and for the 1-minute ITI, and by aviatenavigate-communicate for the time for a parameter to reach an alert range and the 15-minute conditions. Overall, predictive information and the longer ITIs moved subjects to performing tasks before the alert actually occurred and had them more mission oriented as indicated by their tasks grouping of aviate-navigate-communicate.

Conductive sapwood area prediction from stem and canopy areas - allometric equations of Kalahari trees, Botswana

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lubczynski, M.W.; Chavarro-Rincon, D.C.; Rossiter, David

2017-01-01

Conductive sapwood (xylem) area (Ax) of all trees in a given forested area is the main factor contributing to spatial tree transpiration. One hundred ninety-five trees of 9 species in the Kalahari region of Botswana were felled, stained, cut into discs, and measured to develop allometric equations

A case history of using high-resolution LiDAR data to support archaeological prediction models in a low-relief area

Science.gov (United States)

Pacskó, Vivien; Székely, Balázs; Stibrányi, Máté; Koma, Zsófia

2016-04-01

Hungary is situated in the crossroad of several large-scale infrastructural pathways like transnational pipelines and transcontinental motorways. At the same time the country is rich in known and potential archaeological sites. Archaeological prediction techniques aided by remote sensing are intended to help increase preparedness for archaeological surveying and rescue activities in response to planned new infrastructural developments (e.g., a new pipeline), as they try to estimate the number of potential archaeological sites, area to be surveyed, potential cost and time needed for these activities. In very low-relief areas microtopographic forms may indicate sites, high-resolution LiDAR DTMs are suitable for their detection. Main sources of archaeological prediction models are known archaeological sites, where optimal environmental conditions of settling down existed at historic ages. Hydrological characteristics, relief, geology, vegetation cover and soil are considered to be as most important natural factors. Sorting of the factors and accuracy of the sampling differentiate our models. Resolution of an inductive model depends on the spatial properties of the integrated data: a raster data set can be generated that contains probability values and the reliability of the estimation. The information content of the predictive model is highly influenced by the resolution of the used digital terrain model (DTM): its derivatives (slope, aspect, topographic features) are important inputs of the modelling. The quality of the DTM is even more important in low-relief areas as microtopographic features may indicate archaeological sites. The conventional digital elevation models (SRTM, ASTER GDEM) provide unsatisfying resolution (both in horizontal and vertical senses) as they are rather digital surface models containing the vegetation and the built-up structures. Processed multiecho LiDAR data can be used instead. Our study area is situated in the foothills of the

Real driving at night - Predicting lane departures from physiological and subjective sleepiness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hallvig, D.; Anund, A.; Fors, C.; Kecklund, L.G.; Äkerstedt, T.

2014-01-01

Only limited information is available on how driving performance relates to physiological and subjective sleepiness on real roads. This relation was the focus of the present study. 33 volunteers drove for 90 min on a rural road during the afternoon and night in an instrumented car, while

Predicting Rapid Relapse Following Treatment for Chemical Dependence: A Matched-Subjects Design.

Science.gov (United States)

Svanum, Soren; McAdoo, William George

1989-01-01

Persons who underwent residential treatment for chemical dependency were identified as three-month treatment failures (N=52) or successes (N=52). Subjects were matched on Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) scores. Found posttreatment depression, anxiety, and sleep problems strongly related to failure among psychiatric MMPI group;…

Radon soil gas measurements in a geological versatile region as basis to improve the prediction of areas with a high radon potential

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kabrt, Franz; Rechberger, Fabian; Schuff, Michael; Seidel, Claudia; Baumgartner, Andreas; Friedmann, Harry; Maringer, Franz Josef

2014-01-01

With the aim to predict the radon potential by geological data, radon soil gas measurements were made in a selected region in Styria, Austria. This region is characterised by mean indoor radon potentials of 130-280 Bq m -3 and a high geological diversity. The distribution of the individual measuring sites was selected on the basis of geological aspects and the distribution of area settlements. In this work, the radon soil gas activity concentration and the soil permeability were measured at 100 sites, each with three single measurements. Furthermore, the local dose rate was determined and soil samples were taken at each site to determine the activity concentration of natural radionuclides. During two investigation periods, long-term soil gas radon measurements were made to study the time dependency of the radon activity concentration. All the results will be compared and investigated for correlation among each other to improve the prediction of areas with high radon potential. (authors)

Developing a Topographic Model to Predict the Northern Hardwood Forest Type within Carolina Northern Flying Squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus Recovery Areas of the Southern Appalachians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Evans

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

Earthquake prediction by Kina Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.

2005-01-01

Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)

Subject Retrieval from Full-Text Databases in the Humanities

Science.gov (United States)

East, John W.

2007-01-01

This paper examines the problems involved in subject retrieval from full-text databases of secondary materials in the humanities. Ten such databases were studied and their search functionality evaluated, focusing on factors such as Boolean operators, document surrogates, limiting by subject area, proximity operators, phrase searching, wildcards,…

Brain correlates of craving for online gaming under cue exposure in subjects with Internet gaming addiction and in remitted subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Chih-Hung; Liu, Gin-Chung; Yen, Ju-Yu; Chen, Chiao-Yun; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Chen, Cheng-Sheng

2013-05-01

This study aimed to evaluate brain correlates of cue-induced craving to play online games in subjects with Internet gaming addiction (IGA), subjects in remission from IGA and controls. The craving response was assessed by event-related design of functional magnetic resonance images (fMRIs). Fifteen subjects with IGA, 15 in remission from IGA and 15 controls were recruited in this study. The subjects were arranged to view the gaming screenshots and neutral images under investigation of fMRIs. The results showed that bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), precuneus, left parahippocampus, posterior cingulate and right anterior cingulate were activated in response to gaming cues in the IGA group and their activation was stronger in the IGA group than those in the control group. Their region-of-interest was also positively correlated with subjective gaming urge under cue exposure. These activated brain areas represent the brain circuit corresponding to the mechanism of substance use disorder. Thus, it would suggest that the mechanism of IGA is similar to substance use disorder. Furthermore, the IGA group had stronger activation over right DLPFC and left parahippocampus than did the remission group. The two areas would be candidate markers for current addiction to online gaming and should be investigated in future studies. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction Biology © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

[Evaluation of thermal comfort in a student population: predictive value of an integrated index (Fanger's predicted mean value].

Science.gov (United States)

Catenacci, G; Terzi, R; Marcaletti, G; Tringali, S

1989-01-01

Practical applications and predictive values of a thermal comfort index (Fanger's PRV) were verified on a sample school population (1236 subjects) by studying the relationships between thermal sensations (subjective analysis), determined by means of an individual questionnaire, and the values of thermal comfort index (objective analysis) obtained by calculating the PMV index individually in the subjects under study. In homogeneous conditions of metabolic expenditure rate and thermal impedence from clothing, significant differences were found between the two kinds of analyses. At 22 degrees C mean radiant and operative temperature, the PMV values averaged 0 and the percentage of subjects who experienced thermal comfort did not exceed 60%. The high level of subjects who were dissatisfied with their environmental thermal conditions confirms the doubts regarding the use of the PMV index as a predictive indicator of thermal comfort, especially considering that the negative answers were not homogeneous nor attributable to the small thermal fluctuations (less than 0.5 degree C) measured in the classrooms.

Magneto encephalography (MEG: perspectives of speech areas functional mapping in human subjects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Butorina A. V.

2012-06-01

Full Text Available One of the main problems in clinical practice and academic research is how to localize speech zones in the human brain. Two speech areas (Broca and Wernicke areas that are responsible for language production and for understanding of written and spoken language have been known since the past century. Their location and even hemispheric lateralization have a substantial inter-individual variability, especially in neurosurgery patients. Wada test is one of the most frequently used invasive methodology for speech hemispheric lateralization in neurosurgery patients. However, besides relatively high-risk of Wada test for patient's health, it has its own limitation, e. g. low reliability of Wada-based evidence of verbal memory brain lateralization. Therefore, there is an urgent need for non-invasive, reliable methods of speech zones mapping.The current review summarizes the recent experimental evidence from magnitoencephalographic (MEG research suggesting that speech areas are included in the speech processing within the first 200 ms after the word onset. The electro-magnetic response to deviant word, mismatch negativity wave with latency of 100—200 ms, can be recorded from auditory cortex within the oddball-paradigm. We provide the arguments that basic features of this brain response, such as its automatic, pre-attentive nature, high signal to noise ratio, source localization at superior temporal sulcus, make it a promising vehicle for non-invasive MEG-based speech areas mapping in neurosurgery.

Structural health monitoring in end-of-life prediction for steel bridges subjected to fatigue cracking

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Attema, T.; Courage, W.M.G.; Maljaars, J.; Meerveld, H. van; Paulissen, J.H.; Pijpers, R.J.M.; Slobbe, A.T.

2015-01-01

This paper presents a monitoring and modelling methodology to assess the current and future conditions of steel bridges subjected to fatigue cracking. Steel bridges are subjected to fatigue cracking as a result of fluctuating stresses caused by the crossing of heavy vehicles. Specifically for

Increased tumour ADC value during chemotherapy predicts improved survival in unresectable pancreatic cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nishiofuku, Hideyuki; Tanaka, Toshihiro; Kichikawa, Kimihiko [Nara Medical University, Department of Radiology and IVR Center, Kashihara-city, Nara (Japan); Marugami, Nagaaki [Nara Medical University, Department of Endoscopy and Ultrasound, Kashihara-city, Nara (Japan); Sho, Masayuki; Akahori, Takahiro; Nakajima, Yoshiyuki [Nara Medical University, Department of Surgery, Kashihara-city, Nara (Japan)

2016-06-15

To investigate whether changes to the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of primary tumour in the early period after starting chemotherapy can predict progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) in patients with unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Subjects comprised 43 patients with histologically confirmed unresectable pancreatic cancer treated with first-line chemotherapy. Minimum ADC values in primary tumour were measured using the selected area ADC (sADC), which excluded cystic and necrotic areas and vessels, and the whole tumour ADC (wADC), which included whole tumour components. Relative changes in ADC were calculated from baseline to 4 weeks after initiation of chemotherapy. Relationships between ADC and both PFS and OS were modelled by Cox proportional hazards regression. Median PFS and OS were 6.1 and 11.0 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis, sADC change was the strongest predictor of PFS (hazard ratio (HR), 4.5; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.7-11.9; p = 0.002). Multivariate Cox regression analysis for OS revealed sADC change and CRP as independent predictive markers, with sADC change as the strongest predictive biomarker (HR, 6.7; 95 % CI, 2.7-16.6; p = 0.001). Relative changes in sADC could provide a useful imaging biomarker to predict PFS and OS with chemotherapy for unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma. (orig.)

Multiculturalism and subjective happiness as mediated by cultural and relational variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Thao N; Lai, Mary H; Wallen, Judy

2009-07-01

A diverse ethnic context and an increasing immigrant youth population will soon become the reality across the entire U.S. demographic landscape. Research has suggested that a multicultural context positively influences ethnic minority and immigrant youth by fostering ethnic identity and psychosocial development. However, it is unknown whether and how perceived multiculturalism can affect positive youth outcomes such as life satisfaction and subjective happiness. This study explored perceived school multiculturalism among 338 ethnic minority and immigrant youth, and found a positive relation between perceived school multiculturalism and subjective happiness with full mediation by ethnocultural empathy for African Americans, Asians, males, and females. Although school multiculturalism was also predictive of ethnocultural empathy for Hispanics, ethnocultural empathy in turn, was not significantly predictive of subjective happiness. Taken together, these results suggest that one way to facilitate psychological growth and flourishing among ethnic minority youth is to encourage multiculturalism in school settings.

Deformation in volcanic areas: a numerical approach for their prediction in Teide volcano (Tenerife, Canary Islands); Deformaciones en areas volcanicas: una aproximacin numerica para su prediccion en el volcan Teide (Tenerife, Islas Canarias)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charco, M.; Galan del Sastre, P.

2011-07-01

Active volcanic areas study comprises both, observation of physical changes in the natural media and the interpretation of such changes. Nowadays, the application of spatial geodetic techniques, such as GPS (Global Positioning System) or InSAR (Interferometry with Synthetic Aperture Radar), for deformation understanding in volcanic areas, revolutionizes our view of this geodetic signals. Deformation of the Earth's surface reflects tectonic, magmatic and hydrothermal processes at depth. In this way, the prediction of volcanic deformation through physical modelling provides a link between the observation and depth interior processes that could be crucial for volcanic hazards assessment. In this work, we develop a numerical model for elastic deformation study. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is used for the implementation of the numerical model. FEM allows to take into account different morphology, structural characteristics and the mechanical heterogeneities of the medium. Numerical simulations of deformation in Tenerife (Canary Islands) taking into account different medium hypothesis allow us to conclude that the accuracy of the predictions depends on how well the natural system is described. (Author) 22 refs.

Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: an open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

Science.gov (United States)

Bettina Ohse; Falk Huettmann; Stefanie M. Ickert-Bond; Glenn P. Juday

2009-01-01

Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca...

Within-subject mediation analysis for experimental data in cognitive psychology and neuroscience.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuorre, Matti; Bolger, Niall

2017-12-15

Statistical mediation allows researchers to investigate potential causal effects of experimental manipulations through intervening variables. It is a powerful tool for assessing the presence and strength of postulated causal mechanisms. Although mediation is used in certain areas of psychology, it is rarely applied in cognitive psychology and neuroscience. One reason for the scarcity of applications is that these areas of psychology commonly employ within-subjects designs, and mediation models for within-subjects data are considerably more complicated than for between-subjects data. Here, we draw attention to the importance and ubiquity of mediational hypotheses in within-subjects designs, and we present a general and flexible software package for conducting Bayesian within-subjects mediation analyses in the R programming environment. We use experimental data from cognitive psychology to illustrate the benefits of within-subject mediation for theory testing and comparison.

Seismic prediction on the favorable efficient development areas of the Longwangmiao Fm gas reservoir in the Gaoshiti–Moxi area, Sichuan Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangrong Zhang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The Lower Cambrian Longwangmiao Fm gas reservoir in the Gaoshiti–Moxi area, the Sichuan Basin, is a super giant monoblock marine carbonate gas reservoir with its single size being the largest in China. The key to the realization of high and stable production gas wells in this gas reservoir is to identify accurately high-permeability zones where there are dissolved pores or dissolved pores are superimposed with fractures. However, high quality dolomite reservoirs are characterized by large burial depth and strong heterogeneity, so reservoir prediction is of difficult. In this paper, related seismic researches were carried out and supporting technologies were developed as follows. First, a geologic model was built after an analysis of the existing data and forward modeling was carried out to establish a reservoir seismic response model. Second, by virtue of well-oriented amplitude processing technology, spherical diffusion compensation factor was obtained based on VSP well logging data and the true amplitude of seismic data was recovered. Third, the resolution of deep seismic data was improved by using the well-oriented high-resolution frequency-expanding technology and prestack time migration data of high quality was acquired. And fourth, multiple shoal facies reservoirs were traced by using the global automatic seismic interpretation technology which is based on stratigraphic model, multiple reservoirs which are laterally continuous and vertically superimposed could be predicted, and the areal distribution of high quality reservoirs could be described accurately and efficiently. By virtue of the supporting technologies, drilling trajectory is positioned accurately, and the deployed development wells all have high yield. These technologies also promote the construction of a modern supergiant gas field of tens of billions of cubic meters.

Optimizing the diagnosis of early Alzheimer's disease in mild cognitive impairment subjects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mattila, Jussi; Soininen, Hilkka; Koikkalainen, Juha

2012-01-01

of the disease. Several studies have analyzed data of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects, showing that conversion from MCI to AD can be predicted with a classification accuracy of 60-80%. This accuracy may not be high enough for influencing diagnostic decisions. In this work, the prediction problem...

You can't drink a word: lexical and individual emotionality affect subjective familiarity judgments.

Science.gov (United States)

Westbury, Chris

2014-10-01

For almost 30 years, subjective familiarity has been used in psycholinguistics as an explanatory variable, allegedly able to explain many phenomena that have no other obvious explanation (Gernsbacher in J Exp Psychol General 113:256-281, 1984). In this paper, the hypothesis tested is that the subjective familiarity of words is reflecting personal familiarity with or importance of the referents of words. Using an empirically-grounded model of affective force derived from Wundt (Grundriss der Psychologie [Outlines of Psychology]. Engelmann, Leibzig, 1896) and based in a co-occurrence model of semantics (which involves no human judgment), it is shown that affective force can account for the same variance in a large set of human subjective familiarity judgments as other human subjective familiarity judgments, can predict whether people will rate new words of the same objective frequency as more or less familiar, can predict lexical access as well as human subjective familiarity judgments do, and has a predicted relationship to age of acquisition norms. Individuals who have highly affective reactivity [as measured by Carver and White's (J Pers Soc Psychol 67(2):319-333, 1994) Behavioral Inhibition Scale and Behavioral Activation Scales] rate words as significantly more familiar than individuals who have low affective reactivity.

Predicted Liquefaction in the Greater Oakland and Northern Santa Clara Valley Areas for a Repeat of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Holzer, T. L.; Noce, T. E.; Bennett, M. J.

2008-12-01

Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by latest Holocene alluvial fan levee deposits where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906. The liquefaction scenario maps were created with ArcGIS ModelBuilder. Peak ground accelerations first were computed with the new Boore and Atkinson NGA attenuation relation (2008, Earthquake Spectra, 24:1, p. 99-138), using VS30 to account for local site response. Spatial liquefaction probabilities were then estimated using the predicted ground motions

Perceptual Computing Aiding People in Making Subjective Judgments

CERN Document Server

Mendel, Jerry

2010-01-01

Explains for the first time how "computing with words" can aid in making subjective judgments. Lotfi Zadeh, the father of fuzzy logic, coined the phrase "computing with words" (CWW) to describe a methodology in which the objects of computation are words and propositions drawn from a natural language. Perceptual Computing explains how to implement CWW to aid in the important area of making subjective judgments, using a methodology that leads to an interactive device—a "Perceptual Computer"—that propagates random and linguistic uncertainties into the subjective judg

Using ANN and EPR models to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in urban area of Tabriz

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Shakerkhatibi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Forecasting of air pollutants has become a popular topic of environmental research today. For this purpose, the artificial neural network (AAN technique is widely used as a reliable method for forecasting air pollutants in urban areas. On the other hand, the evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR model has recently been used as a forecasting tool in some environmental issues. In this research, we compared the ability of these models to forecast carbon monoxide (CO concentrations in the urban area of Tabriz city. Methods: The dataset of CO concentrations measured at the fixed stations operated by the East Azerbaijan Environmental Office along with meteorological data obtained from the East Azerbaijan Meteorological Bureau from March 2007 to March 2013, were used as input for the ANN and EPR models. Results: Based on the results, the performance of ANN is more reliable in comparison with EPR. Using the ANN model, the correlation coefficient values at all monitoring stations were calculated above 0.85. Conversely, the R2 values for these stations were obtained <0.41 using the EPR model. Conclusion: The EPR model could not overcome the nonlinearities of input data. However, the ANN model displayed more accurate results compared to the EPR. Hence, the ANN models are robust tools for predicting air pollutant concentrations.

Development of 1RM Prediction Equations for Bench Press in Moderately Trained Men.

Science.gov (United States)

Macht, Jordan W; Abel, Mark G; Mullineaux, David R; Yates, James W

2016-10-01

Macht, JW, Abel, MG, Mullineaux, DR, and Yates, JW. Development of 1RM prediction equations for bench press in moderately trained men. J Strength Cond Res 30(10): 2901-2906, 2016-There are a variety of established 1 repetition maximum (1RM) prediction equations, however, very few prediction equations use anthropometric characteristics exclusively or in part, to estimate 1RM strength. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop an original 1RM prediction equation for bench press using anthropometric and performance characteristics in moderately trained male subjects. Sixty male subjects (21.2 ± 2.4 years) completed a 1RM bench press and were randomly assigned a load to complete as many repetitions as possible. In addition, body composition, upper-body anthropometric characteristics, and handgrip strength were assessed. Regression analysis was used to develop a performance-based 1RM prediction equation: 1RM = 1.20 repetition weight + 2.19 repetitions to fatigue - 0.56 biacromial width (cm) + 9.6 (R = 0.99, standard error of estimate [SEE] = 3.5 kg). Regression analysis to develop a nonperformance-based 1RM prediction equation yielded: 1RM (kg) = 0.997 cross-sectional area (CSA) (cm) + 0.401 chest circumference (cm) - 0.385%fat - 0.185 arm length (cm) + 36.7 (R = 0.81, SEE = 13.0 kg). The performance prediction equations developed in this study had high validity coefficients, minimal mean bias, and small limits of agreement. The anthropometric equations had moderately high validity coefficient but larger limits of agreement. The practical applications of this study indicate that the inclusion of anthropometric characteristics and performance variables produce a valid prediction equation for 1RM strength. In addition, the CSA of the arm uses a simple nonperformance method of estimating the lifter's 1RM. This information may be used to predict the starting load for a lifter performing a 1RM prediction protocol or a 1RM testing protocol.

Chemical evolution and the origin of life: cumulative keyword subject index 1970-1986

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, A. C.; Powers, J. V.; Rummel, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

1990-01-01

This cumulative subject index encompasses the subject indexes of the bibliographies on Chemical Evolution and the Origin of Life that were first published in 1970 and have continued through publication of the 1986 bibliography supplement. Early bibliographies focused on experimental and theoretical material dealing directly with the concepts of chemical evolution and the origin of life, excluding the broader areas of exobiology, biological evolution, and geochemistry. In recent years, these broader subject areas have also been incorporated as they appear in literature searches relating to chemical evolution and the origin of life, although direct attempts have not been made to compile all of the citations in these broad areas. The keyword subject indexes have also undergone an analogous change in scope. Compilers of earlier bibliographies used the most specific term available in producing the subject index. Compilers of recent bibliographies have used a number of broad terms relating to the overall subject content of each citation and specific terms where appropriate. The subject indexes of these 17 bibliographies have, in general, been cumulatively compiled exactly as they originally appeared. However, some changes have been made in an attempt to correct errors, combine terms, and provide more meaningful terms.

User's Self-Prediction of Performance in Motor Imagery Brain-Computer Interface.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahn, Minkyu; Cho, Hohyun; Ahn, Sangtae; Jun, Sung C

2018-01-01

Performance variation is a critical issue in motor imagery brain-computer interface (MI-BCI), and various neurophysiological, psychological, and anatomical correlates have been reported in the literature. Although the main aim of such studies is to predict MI-BCI performance for the prescreening of poor performers, studies which focus on the user's sense of the motor imagery process and directly estimate MI-BCI performance through the user's self-prediction are lacking. In this study, we first test each user's self-prediction idea regarding motor imagery experimental datasets. Fifty-two subjects participated in a classical, two-class motor imagery experiment and were asked to evaluate their easiness with motor imagery and to predict their own MI-BCI performance. During the motor imagery experiment, an electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded; however, no feedback on motor imagery was given to subjects. From EEG recordings, the offline classification accuracy was estimated and compared with several questionnaire scores of subjects, as well as with each subject's self-prediction of MI-BCI performance. The subjects' performance predictions during motor imagery task showed a high positive correlation ( r = 0.64, p performance even without feedback information. This implies that the human brain is an active learning system and, by self-experiencing the endogenous motor imagery process, it can sense and adopt the quality of the process. Thus, it is believed that users may be able to predict MI-BCI performance and results may contribute to a better understanding of low performance and advancing BCI.

Subjective perception of sleep benefit in Parkinson's disease: Valid or irrelevant?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Will; Evans, Andrew; Williams, David R

2017-09-01

The phenomenon of sleep benefit (SB) in Parkinson's disease (PD), whereby waking motor function is improved despite no dopaminergic treatment overnight, is controversial. Previous studies suggested a significant discrepancy between subjective functional and objective motor improvement. The aim of this study was to determine how well subjective reporting of SB correlates with objective measures and if true motor improvement can be predicted by a standardized questionnaire. Ninety-two patients with PD participated. A structured questionnaire was developed to assess subjective SB. Quantitative motor assessment was performed using a validated smartphone application. Objective motor SB was considered to be present when the waking motor function was similar or superior to the daytime on-state. Twenty (22%) patients showed objective motor improvement on waking compared to end-of-dose. Most patients (77%) reported subjective SB without corresponding objective motor benefit. Our structured questionnaire could not predict Motor SB. The ability to delay morning medications and a perception of indifference or paradoxical worsening following the morning levodopa dose may suggest Motor SB. Most patients experience subjective SB with no measureable motor improvement. This perceived benefit could be related to non-motor improvement that is distinctly different to objective motor benefit. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 5 months and probabilistic forecast performances evaluated for extreme rainfall thresholds of the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The verification of the retroactive forecasts shows that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended ...

Computational thermofracture mechanics and life prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsu Tairan

1992-01-01

This paper will present computational techniques used for the prediction of the thermofracture behaviour of structures subject to either monotonic or cyclic combined thermal and mechanical loadings. Two specific areas will be dealt with in the paper. (1) The Time-invariant thermofracture of leaking pipelines with non-uniform temperature fields; in this case, the induced non-uniform temperature fields near leaking cracks have shown to be significant. The severity of these temperature fields on the thermofracture behaviour of the pipeline will be demonstrated by a numerical example. (2) Thermomechanical creep fracture of structures: Recent developments, including those of the author's own work, on cyclic creep-fracture using damage theory will be presented. Long 'hold' and 'dwell' times, which occur in the actual operations of nuclear power plant components have been shown to have a significant effect on the overall creep-fracture behaviour of the material. Constitutive laws, which include most of these effects, have been incorporated into the existing TEPSAC code for the prediction of crack growth in solids under cyclic creep loadings. The effectiveness of using the damage parameters as fracture criteria, and the presence of plastic deformation in the overall results will be assessed. (orig.)

Damping of Inter-Area Low Frequency Oscillation Using an Adaptive Wide-Area Damping Controller

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yao, Wei; Jiang, L.; Fang, Jiakun

2013-01-01

This paper presents an adaptive wide-area damping controller (WADC) based on generalized predictive control (GPC) and model identification for damping the inter-area low frequency oscillations in large-scale inter-connected power system. A recursive least-squares algorithm (RLSA) with a varying...... forgetting factor is applied to identify online the reduced-order linearlized model which contains dominant inter-area low frequency oscillations. Based on this linearlized model, the generalized predictive control scheme considering control output constraints is employed to obtain the optimal control signal...... conditions and different disturbances, but also has better robustness against to the time delay existing in the remote signals. The comparison studies with the conventional lead-lag WADC are also provided....

Left Gastric Vein Visualization with Hepatopetal Flow Information in Healthy Subjects Using Non-Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Angiography with Balanced Steady-State Free-Precession Sequence and Time-Spatial Labeling Inversion Pulse.

Science.gov (United States)

Furuta, Akihiro; Isoda, Hiroyoshi; Ohno, Tsuyoshi; Ono, Ayako; Yamashita, Rikiya; Arizono, Shigeki; Kido, Aki; Sakashita, Naotaka; Togashi, Kaori

2018-01-01

To selectively visualize the left gastric vein (LGV) with hepatopetal flow information by non-contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance angiography under a hypothesis that change in the LGV flow direction can predict the development of esophageal varices; and to optimize the acquisition protocol in healthy subjects. Respiratory-gated three-dimensional balanced steady-state free-precession scans were conducted on 31 healthy subjects using two methods (A and B) for visualizing the LGV with hepatopetal flow. In method A, two time-spatial labeling inversion pulses (Time-SLIP) were placed on the whole abdomen and the area from the gastric fornix to the upper body, excluding the LGV area. In method B, nonselective inversion recovery pulse was used and one Time-SLIP was placed on the esophagogastric junction. The detectability and consistency of LGV were evaluated using the two methods and ultrasonography (US). Left gastric veins by method A, B, and US were detected in 30 (97%), 24 (77%), and 23 (74%) subjects, respectively. LGV flow by US was hepatopetal in 22 subjects and stagnant in one subject. All hepatopetal LGVs by US coincided with the visualized vessels in both methods. One subject with non-visualized LGV in method A showed stagnant LGV by US. Hepatopetal LGV could be selectively visualized by method A in healthy subjects.

Changes in Contact Area in Meniscus Horizontal Cleavage Tears Subjected to Repair and Resection.

Science.gov (United States)

Beamer, Brandon S; Walley, Kempland C; Okajima, Stephen; Manoukian, Ohan S; Perez-Viloria, Miguel; DeAngelis, Joseph P; Ramappa, Arun J; Nazarian, Ara

2017-03-01

To assess the changes in tibiofemoral contact pressure and contact area in human knees with a horizontal cleavage tear before and after treatment. Ten human cadaveric knees were tested. Pressure sensors were placed under the medial meniscus and the knees were loaded at twice the body weight for 20 cycles at 0°, 10°, and 20° of flexion. Contact area and pressure were recorded for the intact meniscus, the meniscus with a horizontal cleavage tear, after meniscal repair, after partial meniscectomy (single leaflet), and after subtotal meniscectomy (double leaflet). The presence of a horizontal cleavage tear significantly increased average peak contact pressure and reduced effective average tibiofemoral contact area at all flexion angles tested compared with the intact state (P contact pressure after creation of the horizontal cleavage tear. Repairing the horizontal cleavage tear restored peak contact pressures and areas to within 15% of baseline, statistically similar to the intact state at all angles tested (P contact pressure and reduced average contact area at all degrees of flexion compared with the intact state (P contact area and a significant elevation in contact pressure. These changes may accelerate joint degeneration. A suture-based repair of these horizontal cleavage tears returns the contact area and contact pressure to nearly normal, whereas both partial and subtotal meniscectomy lead to significant reductions in contact area and significant elevations in contact pressure within the knee. Repairing horizontal cleavage tears may lead to improved clinical outcomes by preserving meniscal tissue and the meniscal function. Understanding contact area and peak contact pressure resulting from differing strategies for treating horizontal cleavage tears will allow the surgeon to evaluate the best strategy for treating his or her patients who present with this meniscal pathology. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier

Subjective wellbeing and longevity: a co-twin control study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sadler, Michael E; Miller, Christopher J; Christensen, Kaare

2011-01-01

Mental health is increasingly defined not only by the absence of illness but by the presence of subjective well-being (SWB). Previous cohort studies have consistently shown that indicators of SWB predict favorable life outcomes, including better mental and somatic health, and longevity....... The favorable effects associated with SWB have prompted new research aimed at raising happiness and wellbeing through individual interventions and public health initiatives. Standard observational studies of individual-level associations, however, are subject to potential confounding of exposure and outcome...

Professional continuous glucose monitoring for the identification of type 1 diabetes mellitus among subjects with insulin therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yin-Chun; Huang, Yu-Yao; Li, Hung-Yuan; Liu, Shih-Wei; Hsieh, Sheng-Hwu; Lin, Chia-Hung

2015-01-01

The identification of type 1 diabetes in diabetic subjects receiving insulin therapy is sometimes difficult. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether results of professional continuous glucose monitoring can improve the identification of type 1 diabetes.From 2007 to 2012, 119 adults receiving at least twice-daily insulin therapy and professional continuous glucose monitoring were recruited. Type 1 diabetes was diagnosed by endocrinologists according to American Diabetes Association standards, including a very low C-peptide level (diabetic ketoacidosis. Continuous glucose monitoring was applied for 3 days.Among 119 subjects, 86 were diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Subjects with type 1 diabetes were younger (33.8 vs 52.3 years old, P 1), had lower body mass index (BMI, 21.95 vs 24.42, P = 0.003), lower serum creatinine (61.77  vs 84.65 μmol/L, P = 0.001), and higher estimated glomerular filtration rate (108.71 vs 76.48 mg/mL/min/1.73m2, P 1) than subjects with type 2 diabetes. Predictive scores for identification of type 1 diabetes were constructed, including age, BMI, average mean amplitude of glucose excursion in days 2 and 3, and the area under the curve of nocturnal hyperglycemic and hypoglycemic states. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.90. With the cutoff of 0.58, the sensitivity was 86.7% and the specificity was 80.8%. The good performance was validated by the leave-one-out method (sensitivity 83.3%, specificity 73.1%).Professional continuous glucose monitoring is a useful tool that improves identification of type 1 diabetes among diabetic patients receiving insulin therapy.

The Societal Nature of Subjectivity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Henning Salling

2013-01-01

The HSR Focus presents a psycho-societal approach to qualitative empirical research in several areas of everyday social life. It is an approach which integrates a theory of subjectivity and an interpretation methodology which integrates hermeneutic experiences from text analysis and psychoanalysis....... In terms of methodology it revives the themes originally launched in FOS exactly ten years ago: "Subjectivity and Reflectivity in Qualitative Research" (Breuer, Mruck and Roth 2002; Mruck and Breuer 2003). This editorial introduction presents the intellectual background of the psycho-societal methodology......, reflects on its relevance and critical perspectives in a contemporary landscape of social science, and comments the way in which an international and interdisciplinary research group has developed this approach to profane empirical research....

Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

1981-01-01

Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

Large-area dry bean yield prediction modeling in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Given the importance of dry bean in Mexico, crop yield predictions before harvest are valuable for authorities of the agricultural sector, in order to define support for producers. The aim of this study was to develop an empirical model to estimate the yield of dry bean at the regional level prior t...

A Neural Network Model for Prediction of Sound Quality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen,, Lars Bramsløw

An artificial neural network structure has been specified, implemented and optimized for the purpose of predicting the perceived sound quality for normal-hearing and hearing-impaired subjects. The network was implemented by means of commercially available software and optimized to predict results...... obtained in subjective sound quality rating experiments based on input data from an auditory model. Various types of input data and data representations from the auditory model were used as input data for the chosen network structure, which was a three-layer perceptron. This network was trained by means...... the physical signal parameters and the subjectively perceived sound quality. No simple objective-subjective relationship was evident from this analysis....

Longitudinal connectome-based predictive modeling for REM sleep behavior disorder from structural brain connectivity

Science.gov (United States)

Giancardo, Luca; Ellmore, Timothy M.; Suescun, Jessika; Ocasio, Laura; Kamali, Arash; Riascos-Castaneda, Roy; Schiess, Mya C.

2018-02-01

Methods to identify neuroplasticity patterns in human brains are of the utmost importance in understanding and potentially treating neurodegenerative diseases. Parkinson disease (PD) research will greatly benefit and advance from the discovery of biomarkers to quantify brain changes in the early stages of the disease, a prodromal period when subjects show no obvious clinical symptoms. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) allows for an in-vivo estimation of the structural connectome inside the brain and may serve to quantify the degenerative process before the appearance of clinical symptoms. In this work, we introduce a novel strategy to compute longitudinal structural connectomes in the context of a whole-brain data-driven pipeline. In these initial tests, we show that our predictive models are able to distinguish controls from asymptomatic subjects at high risk of developing PD (REM sleep behavior disorder, RBD) with an area under the receiving operating characteristic curve of 0.90 (pParkinson's Progression Markers Initiative. By analyzing the brain connections most relevant for the predictive ability of the best performing model, we find connections that are biologically relevant to the disease.

Clarifying the contribution of subjective norm to predicting leisure-time exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Okun, Morris A; Karoly, Paul; Lutz, Rafer

2002-01-01

To clarify the contribution of subjective norm to exercise intention and behavior by considering the influence of descriptive as well as injunctive social norms related to family and friends. A sample of 530 college students completed a questionnaire that assessed descriptive and injunctive social norms related to family and to friends, perceived behavioral control, attitude, intention, and leisure-time exercise. Friend descriptive social norm was a significant predictor of both intention (pleisure-time exercise (p<.001). Descriptive norms should be incorporated into tests of the theory of planned behavior in the exercise domain.

Optimal recall from bounded metaplastic synapses: predicting functional adaptations in hippocampal area CA3.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristina Savin

2014-02-01

Full Text Available A venerable history of classical work on autoassociative memory has significantly shaped our understanding of several features of the hippocampus, and most prominently of its CA3 area, in relation to memory storage and retrieval. However, existing theories of hippocampal memory processing ignore a key biological constraint affecting memory storage in neural circuits: the bounded dynamical range of synapses. Recent treatments based on the notion of metaplasticity provide a powerful model for individual bounded synapses; however, their implications for the ability of the hippocampus to retrieve memories well and the dynamics of neurons associated with that retrieval are both unknown. Here, we develop a theoretical framework for memory storage and recall with bounded synapses. We formulate the recall of a previously stored pattern from a noisy recall cue and limited-capacity (and therefore lossy synapses as a probabilistic inference problem, and derive neural dynamics that implement approximate inference algorithms to solve this problem efficiently. In particular, for binary synapses with metaplastic states, we demonstrate for the first time that memories can be efficiently read out with biologically plausible network dynamics that are completely constrained by the synaptic plasticity rule, and the statistics of the stored patterns and of the recall cue. Our theory organises into a coherent framework a wide range of existing data about the regulation of excitability, feedback inhibition, and network oscillations in area CA3, and makes novel and directly testable predictions that can guide future experiments.

Area and depth of surfactant-induced corneal injury predicts extent of subsequent ocular responses.

Science.gov (United States)

Jester, J V; Petroll, W M; Bean, J; Parker, R D; Carr, G J; Cavanagh, H D; Maurer, J K

1998-12-01

To correlate area and depth of initial corneal injury induced by surfactants of differing type and irritant properties with corneal responses and outcome in the same animals over time by using in vivo confocal microscopy (CM). Six groups of six adult rabbits were treated with anionic, cationic, and nonionic surfactants that caused different levels of ocular irritation. Test materials included slight irritants: 5% sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS), polyoxyethylene glycol monoalkyl ether (POE), and 5% 3-isotridecyloxypropyl-bis(polyoxyethylene) ammonium chloride (ITDOP); mild irritants: 5% 3-decyloxypropyl-bis(polyoxyethylene) amine (DOP) and sodium linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS); and a moderate irritant: a proprietary detergent (DTRGT). Ten microliters surfactant were directly applied to the cornea of one eye of each rabbit. Ten untreated rabbits served as control subjects. Area and depth of initial injury was determined by using in vivo CM to measure epithelial thickness, epithelial cell size, corneal thickness, and depth of stromal injury in four corneal regions at 3 hours and at day 1. Area and depth of corneal responses to injury were evaluated at various times from days 3 through 35 by macroscopic grading and quantitative confocal microscopy through-focusing (CMTF). In vivo CM revealed corneal injury with slight irritants to be restricted to the epithelium, whereas the mild and moderate irritants caused complete epithelial cell loss with increasing anterior stromal damage: DOP < LAS < DTRGT. With the slight ocular irritants there was little or no change in corneal thickness or the CMTF intensity profiles. Three hours after treatment, mild and moderate ocular irritants caused a significant increase in corneal thickness, which peaked at day 1 with DOP (483.3+/-80.1 microm) and LAS (572.3+/-60.0 microm) and day 3 with DTRGT (601.4+/-68.7 microm); returning to normal (similar to control values) by day 7 with DOP and day 35 with LAS and DTRGT. The CMTF intensity

Numerical prediction of rose growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bernsen, E.; Bokhove, Onno; van der Sar, D.M.

2006-01-01

A new mathematical model is presented for the prediction of rose growth in a greenhouse. Given the measured ambient environmental conditions, the model consists of a local photosynthesis model, predicting the photosynthesis per unit leaf area, coupled to a global greenhouse model, which predicts the

A general framework for predicting delayed responses of ecological communities to habitat loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Youhua; Shen, Tsung-Jen

2017-04-20

Although biodiversity crisis at different spatial scales has been well recognised, the phenomena of extinction debt and immigration credit at a crossing-scale context are, at best, unclear. Based on two community patterns, regional species abundance distribution (SAD) and spatial abundance distribution (SAAD), Kitzes and Harte (2015) presented a macroecological framework for predicting post-disturbance delayed extinction patterns in the entire ecological community. In this study, we further expand this basic framework to predict diverse time-lagged effects of habitat destruction on local communities. Specifically, our generalisation of KH's model could address the questions that could not be answered previously: (1) How many species are subjected to delayed extinction in a local community when habitat is destructed in other areas? (2) How do rare or endemic species contribute to extinction debt or immigration credit of the local community? (3) How will species differ between two local areas? From the demonstrations using two SAD models (single-parameter lognormal and logseries), the predicted patterns of the debt, credit, and change in the fraction of unique species can vary, but with consistencies and depending on several factors. The general framework deepens the understanding of the theoretical effects of habitat loss on community dynamic patterns in local samples.

A clinical prediction rule for detecting major depressive disorder in primary care: the PREDICT-NL study.

Science.gov (United States)

Zuithoff, Nicolaas P A; Vergouwe, Yvonne; King, Michael; Nazareth, Irwin; Hak, Eelko; Moons, Karel G M; Geerlings, Mirjam I

2009-08-01

Major depressive disorder often remains unrecognized in primary care. Development of a clinical prediction rule using easily obtainable predictors for major depressive disorder in primary care patients. A total of 1046 subjects, aged 18-65 years, were included from seven large general practices in the center of The Netherlands. All subjects were recruited in the general practice waiting room, irrespective of their presenting complaint. Major depressive disorder according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Text Revision edition criteria was assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Candidate predictors were gender, age, educational level, being single, number of presented complaints, presence of non-somatic complaints, whether a diagnosis was assigned, consultation rate in past 12 months, presentation of depressive complaints or prescription of antidepressants in past 12 months, number of life events in past 6 months and any history of depression. The first multivariable logistic regression model including only predictors that require no confronting depression-related questions had a reasonable degree of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve or concordance-statistic (c-statistic) = 0.71; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.67-0.76). Addition of three simple though more depression-related predictors, number of life events and history of depression, significantly increased the c-statistic to 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76-0.83). After transforming this second model to an easily to use risk score, the lowest risk category (sum score depression, which increased to 49% in the highest category (sum score > or = 30). A clinical prediction rule allows GPs to identify patients-irrespective of their complaints-in whom diagnostic workup for major depressive disorder is indicated.

Seismic response analysis of structural system subjected to multiple support excitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, R.W.; Hussain, F.A.; Liu, L.K.

1978-01-01

In the seismic analysis of a multiply supported structural system subjected to nonuniform excitations at each support point, the single response spectrum, the time history, and the multiple response spectrum are the three commonly employed methods. In the present paper the three methods are developed, evaluated, and the limitations and advantages of each method assessed. A numerical example has been carried out for a typical piping system. Considerably smaller responses have been predicted by the time history method than that by the single response spectrum method. This is mainly due to the fact that the phase and amplitude relations between the support excitations are faithfully retained in the time history method. The multiple response spectrum prediction has been observed to compare favourably with the time history method prediction. Based on the present evaluation, the multiple response spectrum method is the most efficient method for seismic response analysis of structural systems subjected to multiple support excitation. (Auth.)

Effective Connectivity from Early Visual Cortex to Posterior Occipitotemporal Face Areas Supports Face Selectivity and Predicts Developmental Prosopagnosia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lohse, Michael; Garrido, Lucia; Driver, Jon; Dolan, Raymond J; Duchaine, Bradley C; Furl, Nicholas

2016-03-30

selectivity. Furthermore, people with developmental prosopagnosia, a lifelong face recognition impairment, have reduced face selectivity in the posterior occipitotemporal face areas and left anterior temporal lobe. We show that this reduced face selectivity can be predicted by effective connectivity from early visual cortex to posterior occipitotemporal face areas. This study presents the first network-based account of how face selectivity arises in the human brain. Copyright © 2016 Lohse et al.

Change in Intra-Abdominal Fat Predicts the Risk of Hypertension in Japanese Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Catherine A; Kahn, Steven E; Fujimoto, Wilfred Y; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Leonetti, Donna L; Boyko, Edward J

2015-07-01

In Japanese Americans, intra-abdominal fat area measured by computed tomography is positively associated with the prevalence and incidence of hypertension. Evidence in other populations suggests that other fat areas may be protective. We sought to determine whether a change in specific fat depots predicts the development of hypertension. We prospectively followed up 286 subjects (mean age, 49.5 years; 50.4% men) from the Japanese American Community Diabetes Study for 10 years. At baseline, subjects did not have hypertension (defined as blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg) and were not taking blood pressure or glucose-lowering medications. Mid-thigh subcutaneous fat area, abdominal subcutaneous fat area, and intra-abdominal fat area were directly measured by computed tomography at baseline and 5 years. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds of incident hypertension over 10 years in relation to a 5-year change in fat area. The relative odds of developing hypertension for a 5-year increase in intra-abdominal fat was 1.74 (95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.37), after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, baseline intra-abdominal fat, alcohol use, smoking status, and weekly exercise energy expenditure. This relationship remained significant when adjusted for baseline fasting insulin and 2-hour glucose levels or for diabetes mellitus and pre-diabetes mellitus classification. There were no significant associations between baseline and change in thigh or abdominal subcutaneous fat areas and incident hypertension. In conclusion, in this cohort of Japanese Americans, the risk of developing hypertension is related to the accumulation of intra-abdominal fat rather than the accrual of subcutaneous fat in either the thigh or the abdominal areas. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Applicability of a Single Time Point Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Concentration Curve of Linezolid in Patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

2016-01-01

Background and Objectives: Linezolid, a oxazolidinone, was the first in class to be approved for the treatment of bacterial infections arising from both susceptible and resistant strains of Gram-positive bacteria. Since overt exposure of linezolid may precipitate serious toxicity issues......, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may be required in certain situations, especially in patients who are prescribed other co-medications. Methods: Using appropriate oral pharmacokinetic data (single dose and steady state) for linezolid, both maximum plasma drug concentration (Cmax) versus area under the plasma...... concentration–time curve (AUC) and minimum plasma drug concentration (Cmin) versus AUC relationship was established by linear regression models. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax or Cmin data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted...

Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunrong Mi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane ( Grus monacha , n  = 33), White-naped Crane ( Grus vipio , n  = 40), and Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis , n  = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

A new general dynamic model predicting radionuclide concentrations and fluxes in coastal areas from readily accessible driving variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haakanson, Lars

2004-01-01

This paper presents a general, process-based dynamic model for coastal areas for radionuclides (metals, organics and nutrients) from both single pulse fallout and continuous deposition. The model gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases and concentrations in sediments and fish) for entire defined coastal areas. The model gives monthly variations. It accounts for inflow from tributaries, direct fallout to the coastal area, internal fluxes (sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, burial, mixing and biouptake and retention in fish) and fluxes to and from the sea outside the defined coastal area and/or adjacent coastal areas. The fluxes of water and substances between the sea and the coastal area are differentiated into three categories of coast types: (i) areas where the water exchange is regulated by tidal effects; (ii) open coastal areas where the water exchange is regulated by coastal currents; and (iii) semi-enclosed archipelago coasts. The coastal model gives the fluxes to and from the following four abiotic compartments: surface water, deep water, ET areas (i.e., areas where fine sediment erosion and transport processes dominate the bottom dynamic conditions and resuspension appears) and A-areas (i.e., areas of continuous fine sediment accumulation). Criteria to define the boundaries for the given coastal area towards the sea, and to define whether a coastal area is open or closed are given in operational terms. The model is simple to apply since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, fallout and month of fallout and parameters expressing coastal size and form as determined from, e.g., digitized bathymetric maps using a GIS program. Selected results: the predictions of radionuclide concentrations in water and fish largely depend on two factors, the concentration in the sea outside the given

Variation in Subjective Aging by Sexual Minority Status.

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Anne; Barbee, Harry

2017-06-01

The past few decades have seen increased scholarly attention to gay and lesbian individuals' aging experiences; however, few studies examine differences in subjective aging by sexual minority status. We identify four perspectives on the association between sexual minority status and subjective aging-double jeopardy, crisis competence, gender interactive, and limited salience perspectives. We examine each perspective's predictions using data from the first wave of Midlife in the United States (1995-1996; MIDUS). Ordinary least square regression models reveal strongest support for the limited salience perspective, suggesting that sexual minority status has weaker effects on subjective aging than do other social factors, such as age, health, and gender. However, some results provide support for the gender interactive perspective, positing that the effect of sexual minority status on subjective aging varies by gender. Our study provides an organizational framework of theoretical perspectives that can guide further examinations of variation in aging experiences by sexual minority status.

Affective symptoms as predictors of Alzheimer's disease in subjects with mild cognitive impairment: a 10-year follow-up study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ramakers, I.H.G.B.; Visser, P.J.; Aalten, P.; Kester, A.; Jolles, J.; Verhey, F.R.J.

2010-01-01

Background Affective symptoms are common in subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but there is disagreement whether these symptoms are predictive for Alzheimer's disease (AD). We investigated the predictive accuracy of affective symptoms for AD during a follow-up study in subjects with MCI,

Can platelet indices be used as predictors of complication in subjects with appendicitis?

Science.gov (United States)

Ceylan, Bahadır; Aslan, Turan; Çınar, Ahmet; Ruhkar Kurt, Ayşe; Akkoyunlu, Yasemin

2016-12-01

We examined the changes of mean platelet volume (MPV) and platelet distribution width (PDW) in subjects with appendicitis and whether MPV and PDW could be used to predict the development of complication due to appendicitis. The healthy control group, the cases of appendicitis with perforation, and the cases of appendicitis without perforation were compared with regard to MPV and PDW. We determined whether MPV and PDW were independent variables predictive of the development of complication in subjects with appendicitis. This retrospective case-control study included a total of 362 patients (249 of which were male (68.8 %) and 113 were female (31.2 %); median age, 30 [range, 18-84 years]). One hundred and ninety-two subjects (53 %) presented with appendicitis and 170 (47 %) comprised the healthy control group. Sixty-six (18.2 %) of the subjects with appendicitis developed complication. MPVs were lower in subjects of appendicitis without complication compared to the subjects of appendicitis with complication and the control group (MPV, 9.78 ± 0.99 vs. 10.20 ± 1.21 and 10.14 ± 1.03, respectively [p = 0.005]). The PDW levels were not different between the three groups. Independent variables predictive of the presence of complication included increased MPV and time from onset of symptoms to hospital presentation (odds ratio[confidence interval], p-value: 1.507[1.064-2.133], 0.021 and 18.887[5.139-69.410], 0.0001, respectively). Our findings suggested these, MPV values in cases of appendicitis without complication were lower than the cases with complication and healthy control and MPV is a predictor of the development of complication in subjects with appendicitis.

Audiovisual biofeedback improves motion prediction accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollock, Sean; Lee, Danny; Keall, Paul; Kim, Taeho

2013-04-01

The accuracy of motion prediction, utilized to overcome the system latency of motion management radiotherapy systems, is hampered by irregularities present in the patients' respiratory pattern. Audiovisual (AV) biofeedback has been shown to reduce respiratory irregularities. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that AV biofeedback improves the accuracy of motion prediction. An AV biofeedback system combined with real-time respiratory data acquisition and MR images were implemented in this project. One-dimensional respiratory data from (1) the abdominal wall (30 Hz) and (2) the thoracic diaphragm (5 Hz) were obtained from 15 healthy human subjects across 30 studies. The subjects were required to breathe with and without the guidance of AV biofeedback during each study. The obtained respiratory signals were then implemented in a kernel density estimation prediction algorithm. For each of the 30 studies, five different prediction times ranging from 50 to 1400 ms were tested (150 predictions performed). Prediction error was quantified as the root mean square error (RMSE); the RMSE was calculated from the difference between the real and predicted respiratory data. The statistical significance of the prediction results was determined by the Student's t-test. Prediction accuracy was considerably improved by the implementation of AV biofeedback. Of the 150 respiratory predictions performed, prediction accuracy was improved 69% (103/150) of the time for abdominal wall data, and 78% (117/150) of the time for diaphragm data. The average reduction in RMSE due to AV biofeedback over unguided respiration was 26% (p biofeedback improves prediction accuracy. This would result in increased efficiency of motion management techniques affected by system latencies used in radiotherapy.

On the Predictability of Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

We investigate the persistence and predictability of sea ice in numerical models and observations. We first use the 3rd generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) General Circulation Model (GCM) to investigate the inherent persistence of sea-ice area and thickness. We find that sea-ice area anomalies have a seasonal decay timescale, exhibiting an initial decorrelation similar to a first order auto-regressive (AR1, or red noise) process. Beyond this initial loss of memory, there is a re-emergence of memory at certain times of the year. There are two distinct modes of re-emergence in the model, one driven by the seasonal coupling of area and thickness anomalies in the summer, the other by the persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies that originate from ice anomalies in the melt season and then influence ice anomalies in the growth season. Comparison with satellite observations where available indicate these processes appear in nature. We then use the 4th generation CCSM (CCSM4) to investigate the partition of Arctic sea-ice predictability into its initial-value and boundary forced components under present day forcing conditions. We find that initial-value predictability lasts for 1-2 years for sea-ice area, and 3-4 years for sea-ice volume. Forced predictability arises after just 4-5 years for both area and volume. Initial-value predictability of sea-ice area during the summer hinges on the coupling between thickness and area anomalies during that season. We find that the loss of initial-value predictability with time is not uniform --- there is a rapid loss of predictability of sea-ice volume during the late spring early summer associated with snow melt and albedo feedbacks. At the same time, loss of predictability is not uniform across different regions. Given the usefulness of ice thickness as a predictor of summer sea-ice area, we obtain a hindcast of September sea-ice area initializing the GCM on May 1with an estimate of observed sea-ice thickness

Prediction of fatigue damage in tapered laminates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raeis Hosseiny, Seyed Aydin; Jakobsen, Johnny

2017-01-01

Effective implementation of ply-drops configurations substantially improve the damage tolerant design of flexible and aero-elastic wind turbine blades. Terminating a number of layers for an optimized blade design creates local bending effects. Inter-laminar stress states in tapered areas give rise...... to delamination and premature structural failure. Precise calculation of the stress levels for embedded ply-drops is required to predict failure initiation within acceptable limits. Multi-axial stress states in orthotropic laminates subjected to diverse loading mechanisms nucleate microscopic cracks....... By increasing the cracks density, damage occurs when residual material properties reduce to a critical level. Residual strength and stiffness of simple laminates are assigned in a set of fatigue failure criteria to assess the remaining life of the components by increasing number of loading cycles. The mode...

Intranasal Pharmacokinetic Data for Triptans Such as Sumatriptan and Zolmitriptan Can Render Area Under the Curve (AUC) Predictions for the Oral Route: Strategy Development and Application

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Srinivas, Nuggehally R.; Syed, Muzeeb

2016-01-01

Limited pharmacokinetic sampling strategy may be useful for predicting the area under the curve (AUC) for triptans and may have clinical utility as a prospective tool for prediction. Using appropriate intranasal pharmacokinetic data, a Cmax vs. AUC relationship was established by linear regression...... models for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold-difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean positive error (MPE......), mean negative error (MNE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two triptans. Also, data from the mean concentration profiles at time points of 1 hour (sumatriptan) and 3 hours (zolmitriptan) were used...

Snow multivariable data assimilation for hydrological predictions in mountain areas

Science.gov (United States)

Piazzi, Gaia; Campo, Lorenzo; Gabellani, Simone; Rudari, Roberto; Castelli, Fabio; Cremonese, Edoardo; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Stevenin, Hervé; Ratto, Sara Maria

2016-04-01

-based and remotely sensed data of different snow-related variables (snow albedo and surface temperature, Snow Water Equivalent from passive microwave sensors and Snow Cover Area). SMASH performance was evaluated in the period June 2012 - December 2013 at the meteorological station of Torgnon (Tellinod, 2 160 msl), located in Aosta Valley, a mountain region in northwestern Italy. The EnKF algorithm was firstly tested by assimilating several ground-based measurements: snow depth, land surface temperature, snow density and albedo. The assimilation of snow observed data revealed an overall considerable enhancement of model predictions with respect to the open loop experiments. A first attempt to integrate also remote sensed information was performed by assimilating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) from METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG), leading to good results. The analysis allowed identifying the snow depth and the snowpack surface temperature as the most impacting variables in the assimilation process. In order to pinpoint an optimal number of ensemble instances, SMASH performances were also quantitatively evaluated by varying the instances amount. Furthermore, the impact of the data assimilation frequency was analyzed by varying the assimilation time step (3h, 6h, 12h, 24h).

Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, C.Q.; Mahmoodian, M.

2013-01-01

Aging and deterioration of underground cast iron pipes is inevitable after their long time in service, with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism for pipe failures. Although considerable research has been undertaken in the past few decades, more is on the effects of corrosion on structural capacity of pipes than that on the prediction of their service life. This paper presents a methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of pipe collapse and predict its remaining service life using a time-dependent reliability theory. The concept of stress intensity in fracture mechanics is employed to establish the failure criterion of pipe collapse. An empirical model is derived for maximum pit growth of corrosion from the available data based on mathematical regressions. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found in the paper that the risk of pipe collapse increases with an increase in the diameter of the pipe for both external and internal corrosion. It is also found that the tougher the pipe is, the smaller the risk of its collapse. The paper concludes that a time-dependent reliability method is a very useful tool to predict the risk of pipe collapse and its remaining service life. The proposed method can help the water industry develop rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing pipe networks with a view for better management of the pipe asset

Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

2016-01-01

Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders �