WorldWideScience

Sample records for subject areas prediction

  1. The effect of predictability on subjective duration.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vani Pariyadath

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Events can sometimes appear longer or shorter in duration than other events of equal length. For example, in a repeated presentation of auditory or visual stimuli, an unexpected object of equivalent duration appears to last longer. Illusions of duration distortion beg an important question of time representation: when durations dilate or contract, does time in general slow down or speed up during that moment? In other words, what entailments do duration distortions have with respect to other timing judgments? We here show that when a sound or visual flicker is presented in conjunction with an unexpected visual stimulus, neither the pitch of the sound nor the frequency of the flicker is affected by the apparent duration dilation. This demonstrates that subjective time in general is not slowed; instead, duration judgments can be manipulated with no concurrent impact on other temporal judgments. Like spatial vision, time perception appears to be underpinned by a collaboration of separate neural mechanisms that usually work in concert but are separable. We further show that the duration dilation of an unexpected stimulus is not enhanced by increasing its saliency, suggesting that the effect is more closely related to prediction violation than enhanced attention. Finally, duration distortions induced by violations of progressive number sequences implicate the involvement of high-level predictability, suggesting the involvement of areas higher than primary visual cortex. We suggest that duration distortions can be understood in terms of repetition suppression, in which neural responses to repeated stimuli are diminished.

  2. Acquisition in different and special subject areas

    CERN Document Server

    Katz, Linda S

    2013-01-01

    Learn how acquisitions librarians successfully serve specialized users! In this book, you'll find profiles, methods, and processes for acquisitions in specialized subject areas, such as local and regional poetry, oceanography, educational information in electronic formats, popular fiction, regional and ethnic materials, and more. Seasoned acquisitions librarians share their experiences in gathering the hard-to-find materials their libraries' highly specialized clients need to access. You'll also examine issues surrounding the acquisition of new reference tools that are vital in today's emergi

  3. Prediction of subjective ratings of emotional pictures by EEG features

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarland, Dennis J.; Parvaz, Muhammad A.; Sarnacki, William A.; Goldstein, Rita Z.; Wolpaw, Jonathan R.

    2017-02-01

    Objective. Emotion dysregulation is an important aspect of many psychiatric disorders. Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology could be a powerful new approach to facilitating therapeutic self-regulation of emotions. One possible BCI method would be to provide stimulus-specific feedback based on subject-specific electroencephalographic (EEG) responses to emotion-eliciting stimuli. Approach. To assess the feasibility of this approach, we studied the relationships between emotional valence/arousal and three EEG features: amplitude of alpha activity over frontal cortex; amplitude of theta activity over frontal midline cortex; and the late positive potential over central and posterior mid-line areas. For each feature, we evaluated its ability to predict emotional valence/arousal on both an individual and a group basis. Twenty healthy participants (9 men, 11 women; ages 22-68) rated each of 192 pictures from the IAPS collection in terms of valence and arousal twice (96 pictures on each of 4 d over 2 weeks). EEG was collected simultaneously and used to develop models based on canonical correlation to predict subject-specific single-trial ratings. Separate models were evaluated for the three EEG features: frontal alpha activity; frontal midline theta; and the late positive potential. In each case, these features were used to simultaneously predict both the normed ratings and the subject-specific ratings. Main results. Models using each of the three EEG features with data from individual subjects were generally successful at predicting subjective ratings on training data, but generalization to test data was less successful. Sparse models performed better than models without regularization. Significance. The results suggest that the frontal midline theta is a better candidate than frontal alpha activity or the late positive potential for use in a BCI-based paradigm designed to modify emotional reactions.

  4. Predicting BCI subject performance using probabilistic spatio-temporal filters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heung-Il Suk

    Full Text Available Recently, spatio-temporal filtering to enhance decoding for Brain-Computer-Interfacing (BCI has become increasingly popular. In this work, we discuss a novel, fully Bayesian-and thereby probabilistic-framework, called Bayesian Spatio-Spectral Filter Optimization (BSSFO and apply it to a large data set of 80 non-invasive EEG-based BCI experiments. Across the full frequency range, the BSSFO framework allows to analyze which spatio-spectral parameters are common and which ones differ across the subject population. As expected, large variability of brain rhythms is observed between subjects. We have clustered subjects according to similarities in their corresponding spectral characteristics from the BSSFO model, which is found to reflect their BCI performances well. In BCI, a considerable percentage of subjects is unable to use a BCI for communication, due to their missing ability to modulate their brain rhythms-a phenomenon sometimes denoted as BCI-illiteracy or inability. Predicting individual subjects' performance preceding the actual, time-consuming BCI-experiment enhances the usage of BCIs, e.g., by detecting users with BCI inability. This work additionally contributes by using the novel BSSFO method to predict the BCI-performance using only 2 minutes and 3 channels of resting-state EEG data recorded before the actual BCI-experiment. Specifically, by grouping the individual frequency characteristics we have nicely classified them into the subject 'prototypes' (like μ - or β -rhythm type subjects or users without ability to communicate with a BCI, and then by further building a linear regression model based on the grouping we could predict subjects' performance with the maximum correlation coefficient of 0.581 with the performance later seen in the actual BCI session.

  5. Automatic creation of specialised multilingual dictionaries in new subject areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquim Moré

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a tool to automatically generate specialised dictionaries of multilingual equivalents in new subject areas. The tool uses resources that are available on the web to search for equivalents and verify their reliability. These resources are, on the one hand, the Wikipedias, which can be freely downloaded and processed, and, on the other, the materials that terminological institutions of reference make available. This tool is of use to teachers producing teaching materials and researchers preparing theses, articles or reference manuals. It is also of use to translators and terminologists working on terminological standardisation in a new subject area in a given language, as it helps them in their work to pinpoint concepts that have yet to receive a standardised denomination.

  6. CRIMINAL-POLITICAL FUTUROLOGY IN THE FIELD OF FIGHTING CRIME (CONCEPTUAL AND SUBJECT AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery Novichkov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the subject area of the new direction of pre-vision — criminal-political futurology (forecasting in the field of combating crime, absorbing in itself the main types of legal prediction: criminological, criminal, criminal Executive, criminal procedural, operational search and other.

  7. Robust small area prediction for counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzavidis, Nikos; Ranalli, M Giovanna; Salvati, Nicola; Dreassi, Emanuela; Chambers, Ray

    2015-06-01

    A new semiparametric approach to model-based small area prediction for counts is proposed and used for estimating the average number of visits to physicians for Health Districts in Central Italy. The proposed small area predictor can be viewed as an outlier robust alternative to the more commonly used empirical plug-in predictor that is based on a Poisson generalized linear mixed model with Gaussian random effects. Results from the real data application and from a simulation experiment confirm that the proposed small area predictor has good robustness properties and in some cases can be more efficient than alternative small area approaches. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  8. Robust Subjective Visual Property Prediction from Crowdsourced Pairwise Labels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yanwei; Hospedales, Timothy M; Xiang, Tao; Xiong, Jiechao; Gong, Shaogang; Wang, Yizhou; Yao, Yuan

    2016-03-01

    The problem of estimating subjective visual properties from image and video has attracted increasing interest. A subjective visual property is useful either on its own (e.g. image and video interestingness) or as an intermediate representation for visual recognition (e.g. a relative attribute). Due to its ambiguous nature, annotating the value of a subjective visual property for learning a prediction model is challenging. To make the annotation more reliable, recent studies employ crowdsourcing tools to collect pairwise comparison labels. However, using crowdsourced data also introduces outliers. Existing methods rely on majority voting to prune the annotation outliers/errors. They thus require a large amount of pairwise labels to be collected. More importantly as a local outlier detection method, majority voting is ineffective in identifying outliers that can cause global ranking inconsistencies. In this paper, we propose a more principled way to identify annotation outliers by formulating the subjective visual property prediction task as a unified robust learning to rank problem, tackling both the outlier detection and learning to rank jointly. This differs from existing methods in that (1) the proposed method integrates local pairwise comparison labels together to minimise a cost that corresponds to global inconsistency of ranking order, and (2) the outlier detection and learning to rank problems are solved jointly. This not only leads to better detection of annotation outliers but also enables learning with extremely sparse annotations.

  9. Effects prediction guidelines for structures subjected to ground motion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-07-01

    Part of the planning for an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) is determining the effects of expected ground motion on exposed structures. Because of the many types of structures and the wide variation in ground motion intensity typically encountered, no single prediction method is both adequate and feasible for a complete evaluation. Furthermore, the nature and variability of ground motion and structure damage prescribe effects predictions that are made probabilistically. Initially, prediction for a UNE involves a preliminary assessment of damage to establish overall project feasibility. Subsequent efforts require more detailed damage evaluations, based on structure inventories and analyses of specific structures, so that safety problems can be identified and safety and remedial measures can be recommended. To cover this broad range of effects prediction needs for a typical UNE project, three distinct but interrelated methods have been developed and are described. First, the fundamental practical and theoretical aspects of predicting the effects of dynamic ground motion on structures are summarized. Next, experimentally derived and theoretically determined observations of the behavior of typical structures subjected to ground motion are presented. Then, based on these fundamental considerations and on the observed behavior of structures, the formulation of the three effects prediction procedures is described, along with guidelines regarding their applicability. Example damage predictions for hypothetical UNEs demonstrate these procedures. To aid in identifying the vibration properties of complex structures, one chapter discusses alternatives in vibration testing, instrumentation, and data analysis. Finally, operational guidelines regarding data acquisition procedures, safety criteria, and remedial measures involved in conducting structure effects evaluations are discussed. (U.S.)

  10. Do subjective symptoms predict our perception of jet-lag?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterhouse, J; Edwards, B; Nevill, A; Atkinson, G; Reilly, T; Davies, P; Godfrey, R

    2000-10-01

    A total of 39 subjects were studied after a flight from the UK to either Sydney or Brisbane (10 time-zones to the east). Subjects varied widely in their age, their athletic ability, whether or not they were taking melatonin, and in their objectives when in Australia. For the first 6 days after arrival, subjects scored their jet-lag five times per day and other subjective variables up to five times per day, using visual analogue scales. For jet-lag, the scale was labelled 0 = no jet-lag to 10 = very bad jet-lag; the extremes of the other scales were labelled - 5 and + 5, indicating marked changes compared with normal, and the centrepoint was labelled 0 indicating 'normal'. Mean daily values for jet-lag and fatigue were initially high (+ 3.65 +/- 0.35 and + 1.55 +/- 0.22 on day 1, respectively) and fell progressively on subsequent days, but were still raised significantly (p concentration and motivation, and rises in irritability and nocturnal wakings, had recovered by day 4 or earlier, and bowel activity was less frequent, with harder stools, on days 1 and 2 only. Also, on day 1, there was a decrease in the ease of getting to sleep (- 1.33 +/- 0.55), but this changed to an increase from day 2 onwards (for example, + 0.75 +/- 0.25 on day 6). Stepwise regression analysis was used to investigate predictors of jet-lag. The severity of jet-lag at all the times that were measured was strongly predicted by fatigue ratings made at the same time. Its severity at 08:00 h was predicted by an earlier time of waking, by feeling less alert 30 min after waking and, marginally, by the number of waking episodes. Jet-lag at 12:00 and 16:00 h was strongly predicted by a fall of concentration at these times; jet-lag at mealtimes (12:00, 16:00 and 20:00 h) was predicted by the amount of feeling bloated. Such results complicate an exact interpretation that can be placed on an assessment of a global term such as jet-lag, particularly if the assessment is made only once per day.

  11. Drilling in areas subject to environmental protection; A perfuracao em area de protecao ambiental

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendonca, Ricardo Teixeira; Guimaraes, Antimio Santos [PETROBRAS, XX (Brazil). Distrito de Perfuracao do Nordeste. Div. Tecnica; Santana, Manoel Messias de [PETROBRAS, XX (Brazil). Regiao de Producao do Nordeste. Setor de Seguranca Industrial

    1990-12-31

    This paper presents the practices developed for pollution control in areas subject to environmental protection. This well drilling operation was carried out in the Municipality of Marechal Deodoro, in the State of Alagoas, in locality named Massagueira. We stress the preventive methods for liquid and solid effluent generation and the use of Closed Fluid System or Anti-Dike System. (author) 3 figs.

  12. Can foot anthropometric measurements predict dynamic plantar surface contact area?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins Natalie

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have suggested that increased plantar surface area, associated with pes planus, is a risk factor for the development of lower extremity overuse injuries. The intent of this study was to determine if a single or combination of foot anthropometric measures could be used to predict plantar surface area. Methods Six foot measurements were collected on 155 subjects (97 females, 58 males, mean age 24.5 ± 3.5 years. The measurements as well as one ratio were entered into a stepwise regression analysis to determine the optimal set of measurements associated with total plantar contact area either including or excluding the toe region. The predicted values were used to calculate plantar surface area and were compared to the actual values obtained dynamically using a pressure sensor platform. Results A three variable model was found to describe the relationship between the foot measures/ratio and total plantar contact area (R2 = 0.77, p R2 = 0.76, p Conclusion The results of this study indicate that the clinician can use a combination of simple, reliable, and time efficient foot anthropometric measurements to explain over 75% of the plantar surface contact area, either including or excluding the toe region.

  13. 44 CFR 65.13 - Mapping and map revisions for areas subject to alluvial fan flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... areas subject to alluvial fan flooding. 65.13 Section 65.13 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL... areas subject to alluvial fan flooding. This section describes the procedures to be followed and the... provides protection from the base flood in an area subject to alluvial fan flooding. This information must...

  14. 47 CFR 22.228 - Cellular rural service area licenses subject to competitive bidding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cellular rural service area licenses subject to... Procedures § 22.228 Cellular rural service area licenses subject to competitive bidding. Mutually exclusive initial applications for Cellular Rural Service Area licenses are subject to competitive bidding. The...

  15. Leaf area prediction models for Tsuga canadensis in Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura S. Kenefic; R.S. Seymour

    1999-01-01

    Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. (eastern hemlock) is a common species throughout the Acadian forest. Studies of leaf area and growth efficiency in this forest type have been limited by the lack of equations to predict leaf area of this species. We found that sapwood area was an effective leaf area surrogate in T. canadensis, though...

  16. Predicting personal preferences in subjective video quality assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korhonen, Jari

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we study the problem of predicting the visual quality of a specific test sample (e.g. a video clip) experienced by a specific user, based on the ratings by other users for the same sample and the same user for other samples. A simple linear model and algorithm is presented, where...... the characteristics of each test sample are represented by a set of parameters, and the individual preferences are represented by weights for the parameters. According to the validation experiment performed on public visual quality databases annotated with raw individual scores, the proposed model can predict...

  17. Subjective Technology Adaptivity Predicts Technology Use in Old Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamin, Stefan T; Lang, Frieder R; Beyer, Anja

    2017-01-01

    To date, not much is known about the psychological and motivational factors underlying technology use in late life. What are the interindividual determinants that lead older adults to invest in using technological innovations despite the age-related physiological changes that impose challenges on behavioral plasticity in everyday life? This research explores interindividual differences in subjective technology adaptivity - a general technology-related motivational resource that accounts for technology use in late life. More specifically, we investigate the influence of this factor relative to demographic characteristics, personality traits, and functional limitations in a longitudinal sample of community-dwelling older adults. We report results from a paper-and-pencil survey with 136 older adults between 59 and 92 years of age (mean = 71.4, SD = 7.4). Of those participants, 77 participated in a 2-year follow-up. We assessed self-reports of technology use, subjective technology adaptivity, functional limitations, and the personality traits openness to new experiences and neuroticism. Higher levels of subjective technology adaptivity were associated with technology use at the first measurement as well as increased use over the course of 2 years. Subjective technology adaptivity is a significant predictor of technology use in old age. Our findings contribute to improving the understanding of interindividual differences when using technological innovation in late life. Moreover, our findings have implications in the context of user involvement and may contribute to the successful development of innovative technology for older adults. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  18. Oxytocin receptor gene variation predicts subjective responses to MDMA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bershad, Anya K; Weafer, Jessica J; Kirkpatrick, Matthew G; Wardle, Margaret C; Miller, Melissa A; de Wit, Harriet

    2016-12-01

    3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "ecstasy") enhances desire to socialize and feelings of empathy, which are thought to be related to increased oxytocin levels. Thus, variation in the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) may influence responses to the drug. Here, we examined the influence of a single OXTR nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) on responses to MDMA in humans. Based on findings that carriers of the A allele at rs53576 exhibit reduced sensitivity to oxytocin-induced social behavior, we hypothesized that these individuals would show reduced subjective responses to MDMA, including sociability. In this three-session, double blind, within-subjects study, healthy volunteers with past MDMA experience (N = 68) received a MDMA (0, 0.75 mg/kg, and 1.5 mg/kg) and provided self-report ratings of sociability, anxiety, and drug effects. These responses were examined in relation to rs53576. MDMA (1.5 mg/kg) did not increase sociability in individuals with the A/A genotype as it did in G allele carriers. The genotypic groups did not differ in responses at the lower MDMA dose, or in cardiovascular or other subjective responses. These findings are consistent with the idea that MDMA-induced sociability is mediated by oxytocin, and that variation in the oxytocin receptor gene may influence responses to the drug.

  19. Spouse's subjective social status predicts older adults' prospective cognitive functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fan; Fung, Helene; Kwok, Timothy

    2017-12-06

    The current study aims to investigate the association between subjective social status (SSS) and prospective cognitive functioning of older adults and their spouses, and to explore the potential mediating roles of health habits and physical activities in this association. Using the longitudinal data of 512 pairs of community-dwelling older couples aged 65-91 years (M = 72.2 ± 4.6), we tested the effects of SSS in cognitive functioning using an Actor-Partner Interdependence Model. SSS was measured by a self-anchoring social ladder, and cognitive functioning was measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination at baseline and 4-year follow-up. Socioeconomic status (i.e. education) was tested as a moderator, and physical activity (measured by the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly) as well as health habits (i.e. tobacco and alcohol consumption) were included as potential mediators. A partner effect of SSS was found only in the low-education group, in which the wife's higher level of SSS in the community was associated with the husband's better cognitive functioning in the follow-up. A small proportion of this effect was found to be partially mediated by participation in housework, such that the wife's higher SSS was associated with the husband's increased housework activity, which was related to higher prospective cognitive functioning. By examining the dyadic effects of SSS with a longitudinal design, our findings extended the understanding on how subjective social status influenced older couples' cognitive health, and provided evidence-based insights for future studies on cognitive health in later life.

  20. Predicting variation in subject thermal response during transcranial magnetic resonance guided focused ultrasound surgery: Comparison in seventeen subject datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vyas, Urvi, E-mail: urvi.vyas@gmail.com; Ghanouni, Pejman; Halpern, Casey H.; Pauly, Kim Butts [Department of Radiology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305 (United States); Elias, Jeff [Department of Neurological Surgery, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22908 (United States)

    2016-09-15

    Purpose: In transcranial magnetic resonance-guided focused ultrasound (tcMRgFUS) treatments, the acoustic and spatial heterogeneity of the skull cause reflection, absorption, and scattering of the acoustic beams. These effects depend on skull-specific parameters and can lead to patient-specific thermal responses to the same transducer power. In this work, the authors develop a simulation tool to help predict these different experimental responses using 3D heterogeneous tissue models based on the subject CT images. The authors then validate and compare the predicted skull efficiencies to an experimental metric based on the subject thermal responses during tcMRgFUS treatments in a dataset of seventeen human subjects. Methods: Seventeen human head CT scans were used to create tissue acoustic models, simulating the effects of reflection, absorption, and scattering of the acoustic beam as it propagates through a heterogeneous skull. The hybrid angular spectrum technique was used to model the acoustic beam propagation of the InSightec ExAblate 4000 head transducer for each subject, yielding maps of the specific absorption rate (SAR). The simulation assumed the transducer was geometrically focused to the thalamus of each subject, and the focal SAR at the target was used as a measure of the simulated skull efficiency. Experimental skull efficiency for each subject was calculated using the thermal temperature maps from the tcMRgFUS treatments. Axial temperature images (with no artifacts) were reconstructed with a single baseline, corrected using a referenceless algorithm. The experimental skull efficiency was calculated by dividing the reconstructed temperature rise 8.8 s after sonication by the applied acoustic power. Results: The simulated skull efficiency using individual-specific heterogeneous models predicts well (R{sup 2} = 0.84) the experimental energy efficiency. Conclusions: This paper presents a simulation model to predict the variation in thermal responses

  1. Insulin Resistance Predicts Atherogenic Lipoprotein Profile in Nondiabetic Subjects

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    Flávia De C. Cartolano

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Atherogenic diabetes is associated with an increased cardiovascular risk and mortality in diabetic individuals; however, the impact of insulin resistance (IR in lipid metabolism in preclinical stages is generally underreported. For that, we evaluated the capacity of IR to predict an atherogenic lipid subfraction profile. Methods. Complete clinical evaluation and biochemical analysis (lipid, glucose profile, LDL, and HDL subfractions and LDL phenotype and size were performed in 181 patients. The impact of IR as a predictor of atherogenic lipoproteins was tested by logistic regression analysis in raw and adjusted models. Results. HDL-C and Apo AI were significantly lower in individuals with IR. Individuals with IR had a higher percentage of small HDL particles, lower percentage in the larger ones, and reduced frequency of phenotype A (IR = 62%; non-IR = 83%. IR individuals had reduced probability to have large HDL (OR = 0.213; CI = 0.999–0.457 and had twice more chances to show increased small HDL (OR = 2.486; CI = 1.341–7.051. IR was a significant predictor of small LDL (OR = 3.075; CI = 1.341–7.051 and atherogenic phenotype (OR = 3.176; CI = 1.469–6.867. Conclusion. IR, previously DM2 diagnosis, is a strong predictor of quantitative and qualitative features of lipoproteins directly associated with an increased atherogenic risk.

  2. Subjectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Vega Encabo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, I claim that subjectivity is a way of being that is constituted through a set of practices in which the self is subject to the dangers of fictionalizing and plotting her life and self-image. I examine some ways of becoming subject through narratives and through theatrical performance before others. Through these practices, a real and active subjectivity is revealed, capable of self-knowledge and self-transformation. 

  3. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  4. Predicting artificailly drained areas by means of selective model ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Anders Bjørn; Beucher, Amélie; Iversen, Bo Vangsø

    . The approaches employed include decision trees, discriminant analysis, regression models, neural networks and support vector machines amongst others. Several models are trained with each method, using variously the original soil covariates and principal components of the covariates. With a large ensemble...... out since the mid-19th century, and it has been estimated that half of the cultivated area is artificially drained (Olesen, 2009). A number of machine learning approaches can be used to predict artificially drained areas in geographic space. However, instead of choosing the most accurate model....... The study aims firstly to train a large number of models to predict the extent of artificially drained areas using various machine learning approaches. Secondly, the study will develop a method for selecting the models, which give a good prediction of artificially drained areas, when used in conjunction...

  5. Predictive inference for best linear combination of biomarkers subject to limits of detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

    2017-08-15

    Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a useful tool to assess the ability of a diagnostic test to discriminate between two classes or groups. In practice, multiple diagnostic tests or biomarkers are combined to improve diagnostic accuracy. Often, biomarker measurements are undetectable either below or above the so-called limits of detection (LoD). In this paper, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for best linear combination of two or more biomarkers subject to limits of detection is presented. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modelling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. The NPI lower and upper bounds for the ROC curve subject to limits of detection are derived, where the objective function to maximize is the area under the ROC curve. In addition, the paper discusses the effect of restriction on the linear combination's coefficients on the analysis. Examples are provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. WHAT ARE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS PH.D. STUDENTS LEARNING ABOUT AGRIBUSINESS RESEARCH METHODS AND SUBJECT AREAS?

    OpenAIRE

    House, Lisa; Sterns, James A.

    2002-01-01

    This document contains the PowerPoint presentation given by the authors at the 2002 WCC-72 meetings, regarding what agricultural economics Ph.D students are learning about agribusiness research methods and subject areas.

  7. Network, anatomical, and non-imaging measures for the prediction of ADHD diagnosis in individual subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason W Bohland

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Brain imaging methods have long held promise as diagnostic aids for neuropsychiatric conditions with complex behavioral phenotypes such as Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder. This promise has largely been unrealized, at least partly due to the heterogeneity of clinical populations and the small sample size of many studies. A large, multi-center dataset provided by the ADHD-200 Consortium affords new opportunities to test methods for individual diagnosis based on MRI-observable structural brain attributes and functional interactions observable from resting state fMRI. In this study, we systematically calculated a large set of standard and new quantitative markers from individual subject datasets. These features (>12,000 per subject consisted of local anatomical attributes such as cortical thickness and structure volumes and both local and global resting state network measures. Three methods were used to compute graphs representing interdependencies between activations in different brain areas, and a full set of network features was derived from each. Of these, features derived from the inverse of the time series covariance matrix, under an L1-norm regularization penalty, proved most powerful. Anatomical and network feature sets were used individually, and combined with non-imaging phenotypic features from each subject. Machine learning algorithms were used to rank attributes, and performance was assessed under cross-validation and on a separate test set of 168 subjects for a variety of feature set combinations. While non-imaging features gave highest performance in cross-validation, the addition of imaging features in sufficient numbers led to improved generalization to new data. Stratification by gender also proved to be a fruitful strategy to improve classifier performance. We describe the overall approach used, compare the predictive power of different classes of features, and describe the most impactful features in relation to the

  8. Fatty Liver Index and Lipid Accumulation Product Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome in Subjects without Fatty Liver Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Lung Cheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Fatty liver index (FLI and lipid accumulation product (LAP are indexes originally designed to assess the risk of fatty liver and cardiovascular disease, respectively. Both indexes have been proven to be reliable markers of subsequent metabolic syndrome; however, their ability to predict metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease has not been clarified. Methods. We enrolled consecutive subjects who received health check-up services at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2002 to 2009. Fatty liver disease was diagnosed by abdominal ultrasonography. The ability of the FLI and LAP to predict metabolic syndrome was assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC curve. Results. Male sex was strongly associated with metabolic syndrome, and the LAP and FLI were better than other variables to predict metabolic syndrome among the 29,797 subjects. Both indexes were also better than other variables to detect metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease (AUROC: 0.871 and 0.879, resp., and the predictive power was greater among women. Conclusion. Metabolic syndrome increases the cardiovascular disease risk. The FLI and LAP could be used to recognize the syndrome in both subjects with and without fatty liver disease who require lifestyle modifications and counseling.

  9. 47 CFR 22.960 - Cellular unserved area radiotelephone licenses subject to competitive bidding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cellular unserved area radiotelephone licenses... (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES PUBLIC MOBILE SERVICES Cellular Radiotelephone Service § 22.960 Cellular... applications for cellular unserved area Phase I and Phase II licenses filed after July 26, 1993 are subject to...

  10. The Role of Basic Needs Fulfillment in Prediction of Subjective Well-Being among University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkdogan, Turgut; Duru, Erdinc

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine the role of fulfillment level of university students' basic needs in predicting the level of their subjective well being. The participants were 627 students (56% female, 44% male) attending different faculties of Pamukkale University. In this study, subjective well being was measured with Life Satisfaction Scale…

  11. Review of some advances of the literature about predictive variables concerning subjective well-being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Cajiao

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This review of scientific literature presents some tendencies, conceptual advances, empirical findings and tests that measure the predictive variables of subjective well-being. It was done through the search in bibliographical database like ProQuest, PsycArticles, Psyctest, OVID SP, books and Thesis. Two types of predictive variables were recognized- internal and external to the individual-. Both of them influence the achievement of the subjective well-being. Besides, the studies and conceptualization about Subjetive well-being and some of the Predictive Variables were analyzed in the conclusion.

  12. Prediction method for thermal ratcheting of a cylinder subjected to axially moving temperature distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Hiroshi; Igari, Toshihide; Kitade, Shoji.

    1989-01-01

    A prediction method was proposed for plastic ratcheting of a cylinder, which was subjected to axially moving temperature distribution without primary stress. First, a mechanism of this ratcheting was proposed, which considered the movement of temperature distribution as a driving force of this phenomenon. Predictive equations of the ratcheting strain for two representative temperature distributions were proposed based on this mechanism by assuming the elastic-perfectly-plastic material behavior. Secondly, an elastic-plastic analysis was made on a cylinder subjected to the representative two temperature distributions. Analytical results coincided well with the predicted results, and the applicability of the proposed equations was confirmed. (author)

  13. Estimation of serum ferritin for normal subject living in Khartoum area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltayeb, E.A; Khangi, F.A.; Satti, G.M.; Abu Salab, A.

    2003-01-01

    This study was conducted with a main objective; the estimation of serum ferritin level in normal subjects in Khartoum area.To fulfil this objective, two hundred and sixty symptoms-free subjects were included in the study, 103 males with 15 to 45 years. serum ferritin was determined by radioimmunoassay (RIA). It was found that the mean concentration of males' serum ferritin was much higher than that of the females' (p<0.001). (Author)

  14. Fourier power, subjective distance, and object categories all provide plausible models of BOLD responses in scene-selective visual areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lescroart, Mark D.; Stansbury, Dustin E.; Gallant, Jack L.

    2015-01-01

    Perception of natural visual scenes activates several functional areas in the human brain, including the Parahippocampal Place Area (PPA), Retrosplenial Complex (RSC), and the Occipital Place Area (OPA). It is currently unclear what specific scene-related features are represented in these areas. Previous studies have suggested that PPA, RSC, and/or OPA might represent at least three qualitatively different classes of features: (1) 2D features related to Fourier power; (2) 3D spatial features such as the distance to objects in a scene; or (3) abstract features such as the categories of objects in a scene. To determine which of these hypotheses best describes the visual representation in scene-selective areas, we applied voxel-wise modeling (VM) to BOLD fMRI responses elicited by a set of 1386 images of natural scenes. VM provides an efficient method for testing competing hypotheses by comparing predictions of brain activity based on encoding models that instantiate each hypothesis. Here we evaluated three different encoding models that instantiate each of the three hypotheses listed above. We used linear regression to fit each encoding model to the fMRI data recorded from each voxel, and we evaluated each fit model by estimating the amount of variance it predicted in a withheld portion of the data set. We found that voxel-wise models based on Fourier power or the subjective distance to objects in each scene predicted much of the variance predicted by a model based on object categories. Furthermore, the response variance explained by these three models is largely shared, and the individual models explain little unique variance in responses. Based on an evaluation of previous studies and the data we present here, we conclude that there is currently no good basis to favor any one of the three alternative hypotheses about visual representation in scene-selective areas. We offer suggestions for further studies that may help resolve this issue. PMID:26594164

  15. A Subject-Specific Kinematic Model to Predict Human Motion in Exoskeleton-Assisted Gait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torricelli, Diego; Cortés, Camilo; Lete, Nerea; Bertelsen, Álvaro; Gonzalez-Vargas, Jose E; Del-Ama, Antonio J; Dimbwadyo, Iris; Moreno, Juan C; Florez, Julian; Pons, Jose L

    2018-01-01

    The relative motion between human and exoskeleton is a crucial factor that has remarkable consequences on the efficiency, reliability and safety of human-robot interaction. Unfortunately, its quantitative assessment has been largely overlooked in the literature. Here, we present a methodology that allows predicting the motion of the human joints from the knowledge of the angular motion of the exoskeleton frame. Our method combines a subject-specific skeletal model with a kinematic model of a lower limb exoskeleton (H2, Technaid), imposing specific kinematic constraints between them. To calibrate the model and validate its ability to predict the relative motion in a subject-specific way, we performed experiments on seven healthy subjects during treadmill walking tasks. We demonstrate a prediction accuracy lower than 3.5° globally, and around 1.5° at the hip level, which represent an improvement up to 66% compared to the traditional approach assuming no relative motion between the user and the exoskeleton.

  16. An investigation on impacts of scheduling configurations on Mississippi biology subject area testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchette, Frances Lenora

    The purpose of this mixed modal study was to compare the results of Biology Subject Area mean scores of students on a 4 x 4 block schedule, A/B block schedule, and traditional year-long schedule for 1A to 5A size schools. This study also reviewed the data to determine if minority or gender issues might influence the test results. Interviews with administrators and teachers were conducted about the type of schedule configuration they use and the influence that the schedule has on student academic performance on the Biology Subject Area Test. Additionally, this research further explored whether schedule configurations allow sufficient time for students to construct knowledge. This study is important to schools, teachers, and administrators because it can assist them in considering the impacts that different types of class schedules have on student performance and if ethnic or gender issues are influencing testing results. This study used the causal-comparative method for the quantitative portion of the study and constant comparative method for the qualitative portion to explore the relationship of school schedules on student academic achievement on the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test. The aggregate means of selected student scores indicate that the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test as a measure of student performance reveals no significant difference on student achievement for the three school schedule configurations. The data were adjusted for initial differences of gender, minority, and school size on the three schedule configurations. The results suggest that schools may employ various schedule configurations and expect student performance on the Mississippi Biology Subject Area Test to be unaffected. However, many areas of concern were identified in the interviews that might impact on school learning environments. These concerns relate to effective classroom management, the active involvement of students in learning, the adequacy of teacher education

  17. Sub-kilometer Numerical Weather Prediction in complex urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroyer, S.; Bélair, S.; Husain, S.; Vionnet, V.

    2013-12-01

    A Sub-kilometer atmospheric modeling system with grid-spacings of 2.5 km, 1 km and 250 m and including urban processes is currently being developed at the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in order to provide more accurate weather forecasts at the city scale. Atmospheric lateral boundary conditions are provided with the 15-km Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS). Surface physical processes are represented with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model for the built-up covers and with the Interactions between the Surface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model for the natural covers. In this study, several research experiments over large metropolitan areas and using observational networks at the urban scale are presented, with a special emphasis on the representation of local atmospheric circulations and their impact on extreme weather forecasting. First, numerical simulations are performed over the Vancouver metropolitan area during a summertime Intense Observing Period (IOP of 14-15 August 2008) of the Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities (EPiCC) observational network. The influence of the horizontal resolution on the fine-scale representation of the sea-breeze development over the city is highlighted (Leroyer et al., 2013). Then severe storms cases occurring in summertime within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are simulated. In view of supporting the 2015 PanAmerican and Para-Pan games to be hold in GTA, a dense observational network has been recently deployed over this region to support model evaluations at the urban and meso scales. In particular, simulations are conducted for the case of 8 July 2013 when exceptional rainfalls were recorded. Leroyer, S., S. Bélair, J. Mailhot, S.Z. Husain, 2013: Sub-kilometer Numerical Weather Prediction in an Urban Coastal Area: A case study over the Vancouver Metropolitan Area, submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

  18. Absence of airway secretion accumulation predicts tolerance of noninvasive ventilation in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenberghe, Nadia; Vallet, Anne-Evelyne; Petitjean, Thierry; Le Cam, Pierre; Peysson, Stéphane; Guérin, Claude; Dailler, Frédéric; Jay, Sylvie; Cadiergue, Vincent; Bouhour, Françoise; Court-Fortune, Isabelle; Camdessanche, Jean-Philippe; Antoine, Jean-Christophe; Philit, François; Beuret, Pascal; Bin-Dorel, Sylvie; Vial, Christophe; Broussolle, Emmanuel

    2013-09-01

    To assess factors that predict good tolerance of noninvasive ventilation (NIV), in order to improve survival and quality of life in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We conducted a prospective study in subjects with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and requiring NIV. The primary end point was NIV tolerance at 1 month. Subjects, several of whom failed to complete the study, were classified as "tolerant" or "poorly tolerant," according to the number of hours of NIV use (more or less than 4 h per night, respectively). Eighty-one subjects, 73 of whom also attended the 1-month follow-up visit, participated over 34 months. NIV tolerance after the first day of utilization predicted tolerance at 1 month (77.6% and 75.3% of subjects, respectively). Multivariate analysis disclosed 3 factors predicting good NIV tolerance: absence of airway secretions accumulation prior to NIV onset (odds ratio 11.5); normal bulbar function at initiation of NIV (odds ratio 8.5); and older age (weakly significant, odds ratio 1.1). Our study reveals 3 factors that are predictive of good NIV tolerance, in particular the absence of airway secretion accumulation, which should prompt NIV initiation before its appearance.

  19. Literacy as Self-Expression: Interpreting the Subject Areas through the Arts. Research into Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Karen D.; Finke, Janet; Douville, Patricia

    1999-01-01

    Examines self-expression in art, drama, and gesture, offering practical strategies that can be used across subject areas to enhance students' literacy performance. Discusses the way creative projects can motivate student language use and participation in history and science projects. (JPB)

  20. Does area V3A predict positions of moving objects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerrit W Maus

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A gradually fading moving object is perceived to disappear at positions beyond its luminance detection threshold, whereas abrupt offsets are usually localised accurately. What role does retinotopic activity in visual cortex play in this motion-induced mislocalization of the endpoint of fading objects? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, we localised regions of interest (ROIs in retinotopic maps abutting the trajectory endpoint of a bar moving either towards or away from this position while gradually decreasing or increasing in luminance. Area V3A showed predictive activity, with stronger fMRI responses for motion towards versus away from the ROI. This effect was independent of the change in luminance. In Area V1 we found higher activity for high-contrast onsets and offsets near the ROI, but no significant differences between motion directions. We suggest that perceived final positions of moving objects are based on an interplay of predictive position representations in higher motion-sensitive retinotopic areas and offset transients in primary visual cortex.

  1. Subjective social status predicts quit-day abstinence among homeless smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reitzel, Lorraine R; Kendzor, Darla E; Cao, Yumei; Businelle, Michael S

    2014-01-01

    Smoking prevalence is alarmingly high among the homeless. Few studies have focused on predictors of smoking abstinence in this population. Subjective social status, a person's ranking of their own social standing relative to others in the United States or in their own self-defined communities, has predicted smoking cessation among domiciled smokers in analyses adjusted for objective socioeconomic status and other demographic variables. This study examined if subjective social status predicted quit-day abstinence among homeless smokers making a quit attempt. Longitudinal study using self-reported survey data. Transitional homeless shelter in Dallas, Texas. A total of 57 homeless smokers enrolled in a cessation program. Predictors were the Subjective Social Status-U.S (SSS-U.S.) and the Subjective Social Status-Community (SSS-Community) ladders measured 1 week pre quit. Covariates were sociodemographics and tobacco dependence measured 1 week pre quit. The outcome was self-reported and biochemically verified smoking abstinence on the quit day. Analysis . Covariate-adjusted logistic regression models. Higher rankings on the SSS-U.S. ladder, but not the SSS-Community ladder, predicted abstinence on the quit day (p = .005). Lower rankings on the SSS-U.S. ladder predicted increased risk of relapse on the quit day or the inability to quit at all. The SSS-U.S. ladder might be useful in identifying homeless smokers needing additional preparation and intervention before initiating a quit attempt.

  2. Subjective evaluation of the accuracy of video imaging prediction following orthognathic surgery in Chinese patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chew, Ming Tak; Koh, Chay Hui; Sandham, John; Wong, Hwee Bee

    Purpose: The aims of this retrospective study were to assess the subjective accuracy of predictions generated by a computer imaging software in Chinese patients who had undergone orthognathic surgery and to determine the influence of initial dysgnathia and complexity of the surgical procedure on

  3. Investigating the Predictive Role of Authenticity on Subjective Vitality with Structural Equation Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Umran; Akin, Ahmet

    2014-01-01

    Authenticity is a basic personality characteristic that has an important influence on both the psychological and social lives of individuals. Subjective vitality also assumes a facilitative role regarding positive mental health indicators. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the predictive role of authenticity on subjective…

  4. Prediction of elastic-plastic response of structural elements subjected to cyclic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Haddad, M.H.; Samaan, S.

    1985-01-01

    A simplified elastic-plastic analysis is developed to predict stress strain and force deformation response of structural metallic elements subjected to irregular cyclic loadings. In this analysis a simple elastic-plastic method for predicting the skeleton force deformation curve is developed. In this method, elastic and fully plastic solutions are first obtained for unknown quantities, such as deflection or local strains. Elastic and fully plastic contributions are then combined to obtain an elastic-plastic solution. The skeleton curve is doubled to establish the shape of the hysteresis loop. The complete force deformation response can therefore be simulated through reversal by reversal in accordance with hysteresis looping and material memory. Several examples of structural elements with various cross sections made from various materials and subjected to irregular cyclic loadings, are analysed. A close agreement is obtained between experimental results found in the literature and present predictions. (orig.)

  5. Single Subject Prediction of Brain Disorders in Neuroimaging: Promises and Pitfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbabshirani, Mohammad R.; Plis, Sergey; Sui, Jing; Calhoun, Vince D.

    2016-01-01

    Neuroimaging-based single subject prediction of brain disorders has gained increasing attention in recent years. Using a variety of neuroimaging modalities such as structural, functional and diffusion MRI, along with machine learning techniques, hundreds of studies have been carried out for accurate classification of patients with heterogeneous mental and neurodegenerative disorders such as schizophrenia and Alzheimer's disease. More than 500 studies have been published during the past quarter century on single subject prediction focused on a multiple brain disorders. In the first part of this study, we provide a survey of more than 200 reports in this field with a focus on schizophrenia, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), Alzheimer's disease (AD), depressive disorders, autism spectrum disease (ASD) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Detailed information about those studies such as sample size, type and number of extracted features and reported accuracy are summarized and discussed. To our knowledge, this is by far the most comprehensive review of neuroimaging-based single subject prediction of brain disorders. In the second part, we present our opinion on major pitfalls of those studies from a machine learning point of view. Common biases are discussed and suggestions are provided. Moreover, emerging trends such as decentralized data sharing, multimodal brain imaging, differential diagnosis, disease subtype classification and deep learning are also discussed. Based on this survey, there are extensive evidences showing the great potential of neuroimaging data for single subject prediction of various disorders. However, the main bottleneck of this exciting field is still the limited sample size, which could be potentially addressed by modern data sharing models such as the ones discussed in this paper. Emerging big data technologies and advanced data-intensive machine learning methodologies such as deep learning have coincided with an increasing need

  6. Within-Subject Correlation Analysis to Detect Functional Areas Associated With Response Inhibition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomoko Yamasaki

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Functional areas in fMRI studies are often detected by brain-behavior correlation, calculating across-subject correlation between the behavioral index and the brain activity related to a function of interest. Within-subject correlation analysis is also employed in a single subject level, which utilizes cognitive fluctuations in a shorter time period by correlating the behavioral index with the brain activity across trials. In the present study, the within-subject analysis was applied to the stop-signal task, a standard task to probe response inhibition, where efficiency of response inhibition can be evaluated by the stop-signal reaction time (SSRT. Since the SSRT is estimated, by definition, not in a trial basis but from pooled trials, the correlation across runs was calculated between the SSRT and the brain activity related to response inhibition. The within-subject correlation revealed negative correlations in the anterior cingulate cortex and the cerebellum. Moreover, the dissociation pattern was observed in the within-subject analysis when earlier vs. later parts of the runs were analyzed: negative correlation was dominant in earlier runs, whereas positive correlation was dominant in later runs. Regions of interest analyses revealed that the negative correlation in the anterior cingulate cortex, but not in the cerebellum, was dominant in earlier runs, suggesting multiple mechanisms associated with inhibitory processes that fluctuate on a run-by-run basis. These results indicate that the within-subject analysis compliments the across-subject analysis by highlighting different aspects of cognitive/affective processes related to response inhibition.

  7. Hanford Environmental Information System (HEIS). Volume 7: Sample and Data Tracking subject area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-06-01

    The Hanford Environmental Information System (HEIS) Sample and Data Tracking subject area allows insertion of tracking information into a central repository where the data is immediately available for viewing. For example, a technical coordinator is able to view the current status of a particular sampling effort, from sample collection to data package validation dates. Four major types of data comprise the Sample and Data Tracking subject area: data about the mechanisms that groups a set of samples for a particular sampling effort; data about how constituents are grouped and assigned to a sample; data about when, where, and how samples are sent to a laboratory for analysis; and data bout the status of a sample's constituent analysis requirements, i.e., whether the analysis results have been returned from the laboratory

  8. Usefulness of radionuclide angiocardiography in predicting stenotic mitral orifice area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, R.J.; Armitage, D.L.; Fountas, P.N.; Tremblay, P.C.; Druck, M.N.

    1986-01-01

    Fifteen patients with pure mitral stenosis (MS) underwent high-temporal-resolution radionuclide angiocardiography for calculation of the ratio of peak left ventricular (LV) filling rate divided by mean LV filling rate (filling ratio). Whereas LV filling normally occurs in 3 phases, in MS it is more uniform. Thus, in 13 patients the filling ratio was below the normal range of 2.21 to 2.88 (p less than 0.001). In 11 patients in atrial fibrillation, filling ratio divided by mean cardiac cycle length and by LV ejection fraction provided good correlation (r = 0.85) with modified Gorlin formula derived mitral area and excellent correlation with echocardiographic mitral area (r = 0.95). Significant MS can be detected using radionuclide angiocardiography to calculate filling ratio. In the absence of the confounding influence of atrial systole calculation of 0.14 (filling ratio divided by cardiac cycle length divided by LV ejection fraction) + 0.40 cm2 enables accurate prediction of mitral area (+/- 4%). Our data support the contention that the modified Gorlin formula, based on steady-state hemodynamics, provides less certain estimates of mitral area for patients with MS and atrial fibrillation, in whom echocardiography and radionuclide angiocardiography may be more accurate

  9. Baseline social amotivation predicts 1-year functioning in UHR subjects: A validation and prospective investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Max; Abdul Rashid, Nur Amirah; Lee, Sara-Ann; Lim, Jeanette; Foussias, George; Fervaha, Gagan; Ruhrman, Stephan; Remington, Gary; Lee, Jimmy

    2015-12-01

    Social amotivation and diminished expression have been reported to underlie negative symptomatology in schizophrenia. In the current study we sought to establish and validate these negative symptom domains in a large cohort of schizophrenia subjects (n=887) and individuals who are deemed to be Ultra-High Risk (UHR) for psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis conducted on PANSS item domains demonstrate that the dual negative symptom domains exist in schizophrenia and UHR subjects. We further sought to examine if these negative symptom domains were associated with functioning in UHR subjects. Linear regression analyses confirmed that social amotivation predicted functioning in UHR subjects prospectively at 1 year follow up. Results suggest that the association between social amotivation and functioning is generalisable beyond schizophrenia populations to those who are at-risk of developing psychosis. Social amotivation may be an important dimensional clinical construct to be studied across a range of psychiatric conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  10. Fasting Lipoprotein Lipase Protein Levels Can Predict a Postmeal Increment of Triglyceride Levels in Fasting Normohypertriglyceridemic Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuzaki, Kokoro; Kotani, Kazuhiko; Yamada, Kazunori; Sakane, Naoki

    2016-09-01

    Although a postprandial increment in triglyceride (TG) levels is considered to be a risk factor for atherogenesis, tests (e.g., fat load) to assess postprandial changes in TG levels cannot be easily applied to clinical practice. Therefore, fasting markers that predict postprandial TG states are needed to be developed. One current candidate is lipoprotein lipase (LPL) protein, a molecule that hydrides TGs. This study investigated whether fasting LPL levels could predict postprandial TG levels. A total of 17 subjects (11 men, 6 women, mean age 52 ± 11 years) with normotriglyceridemia during fasting underwent the meal test. Several fasting parameters, including LPL, were measured for the area under the curve of postprandial TGs (AUC-TG). The subjects' mean fasting TG level was 1.30 mmol/l, and their mean LPL level was 41.6 ng/ml. The subjects' TG levels increased after loading (they peaked after two postprandial hours). Stepwise multiple regression analysis demonstrated that fasting TG levels were a predictor of the AUC-TG. In addition, fasting LPL mass levels were found to be a predictor of the AUC-TG (β = 0.65, P fasting TG levels. Fasting LPL levels may be useful to predict postprandial TG increment in this population. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Chewing side, bite force symmetry, and occlusal contact area of subjects with different facial vertical patterns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Guimarães Farias Gomes

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Craniofacial dimensions influence oral functions; however, it is not known whether they are associated with function asymmetry. The objective of this study was to evaluate chewing side preference and lateral asymmetry of occlusal contact area and bite force of individuals with different craniofacial patterns. Seventy-eight dentate subjects were divided into 3 groups according to the VERT index as follows: (1 mesofacial, (2 brachyfacial and (3 dolichofacial. Chewing side preference was evaluated using jaw tracking equipment, occlusal contact area was measured by silicon registration of posterior teeth, and bite force was measured unilaterally on molar regions using 2.25 mm-thick sensors. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA on Ranks, Student's t-test, and Mann-Whitney tests at a 5% significance level. Mesofacial, brachyfacial, and dolichofacial subjects presented more occlusal contact area on the left side. Only dolichofacial subjects showed lateral asymmetry for bite force, presenting higher force on the left side. No statistically significant differences were found for chewing side preference among all groups. Within the limitations of this study, it can be concluded that craniofacial dimensions play a role in asymmetry of bite force. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01286363.

  12. Remaining useful life prediction of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance: Application to draught fans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhao-Qiang; Hu, Chang-Hua; Si, Xiao-Sheng; Zio, Enrico

    2018-02-01

    Current degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction studies share a common assumption that the degrading systems are not maintained or maintained perfectly (i.e., to an as-good-as new state). This paper concerns the issues of how to model the degradation process and predict the remaining useful life of degrading systems subjected to imperfect maintenance activities, which can restore the health condition of a degrading system to any degradation level between as-good-as new and as-bad-as old. Toward this end, a nonlinear model driven by Wiener process is first proposed to characterize the degradation trajectory of the degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, where negative jumps are incorporated to quantify the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on the system's degradation. Then, the probability density function of the remaining useful life is derived analytically by a space-scale transformation, i.e., transforming the constructed degradation model with negative jumps crossing a constant threshold level to a Wiener process model crossing a random threshold level. To implement the proposed method, unknown parameters in the degradation model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method. Finally, the proposed degradation modeling and remaining useful life prediction method are applied to a practical case of draught fans belonging to a kind of mechanical systems from steel mills. The results reveal that, for a degrading system subjected to imperfect maintenance, our proposed method can obtain more accurate remaining useful life predictions than those of the benchmark model in literature.

  13. Predicting employment status and subjective quality of life in patients with schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haruo Fujino

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Although impaired social functioning, particularly poor employment status, is a cardinal feature of patients with schizophrenia and leads to decreased quality of life (QOL, few studies have addressed the relationship between these two clinical issues. The aim of this study was to determine whether employment status predicts subjective QOL and to evaluate a model in which functional capacity mediates the relationship between general cognitive performance and employment status. Ninety-three patients with schizophrenia were administered a comprehensive battery of cognitive tests, the UCSD Performance-based Skills Assessment-Brief version (UPSA-B, the Social Functioning Scale (SFS, and the Subjective Quality of Life Scale (SQLS. First, we evaluated a model for predicting the employment/occupation subscale score of the SFS using path analysis, and the model fitted well (χ2 (4 = 3.6, p = 0.46; CFI = 1.0; RMSEA < 0.001, with 90% CIs: 0–0.152. Employment status was predicted by negative symptoms and functional capacity, which was in turn predicted by general cognitive performance. Second, we added subjective QOL to this model. In a final path model, QOL was predicted by negative symptoms and employment status. This model also satisfied good fit criteria (χ2 (7 = 10.3, p = 0.17; CFI = 0.987; RMSEA = 0.072, with 90% CIs: 0–0.159. The UPSA-B and SFS scores were moderately correlated with most measures of cognitive performance. These results support the notion that better employment status enhances subjective QOL in patients with schizophrenia.

  14. Model of external exposure of population living in the areas subjected to radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golikov, V.Yu.; Balonov, M.I.

    2002-01-01

    In the paper, we formulated the general approach to assessment of external doses to population living in contaminated areas (the model equation and the set of parameters). The model parameters were assessed on the basis of results of monitoring in the environment, phantom experiments, and social and demographic information obtained on the contaminated areas. Verification of model assessments performed by comparison with measurement results of individual external doses in inhabitants within the thermoluminescent dosimetry method have shown that differences in dose assessments within both methods does not exceed 1.5 times at a confidence level of 95%. In the paper, we present the results illustrating specific features of external dose formation in population living in the areas of Russia subjected to radioactive contamination due to nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site, radioactive releases from the Mayak enterprise, and the Chernobyl accident. (author)

  15. Subject-specific knee joint geometry improves predictions of medial tibiofemoral contact forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerus, Pauline; Sartori, Massimo; Besier, Thor F.; Fregly, Benjamin J.; Delp, Scott L.; Banks, Scott A.; Pandy, Marcus G.; D’Lima, Darryl D.; Lloyd, David G.

    2013-01-01

    Estimating tibiofemoral joint contact forces is important for understanding the initiation and progression of knee osteoarthritis. However, tibiofemoral contact force predictions are influenced by many factors including muscle forces and anatomical representations of the knee joint. This study aimed to investigate the influence of subject-specific geometry and knee joint kinematics on the prediction of tibiofemoral contact forces using a calibrated EMG-driven neuromusculoskeletal model of the knee. One participant fitted with an instrumented total knee replacement walked at a self-selected speed while medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces, ground reaction forces, whole-body kinematics, and lower-limb muscle activity were simultaneously measured. The combination of generic and subject-specific knee joint geometry and kinematics resulted in four different OpenSim models used to estimate muscle-tendon lengths and moment arms. The subject-specific geometric model was created from CT scans and the subject-specific knee joint kinematics representing the translation of the tibia relative to the femur was obtained from fluoroscopy. The EMG-driven model was calibrated using one walking trial, but with three different cost functions that tracked the knee flexion/extension moments with and without constraint over the estimated joint contact forces. The calibrated models then predicted the medial and lateral tibiofemoral contact forces for five other different walking trials. The use of subject-specific models with minimization of the peak tibiofemoral contact forces improved the accuracy of medial contact forces by 47% and lateral contact forces by 7%, respectively compared with the use of generic musculoskeletal model. PMID:24074941

  16. A Subject-Specific Kinematic Model to Predict Human Motion in Exoskeleton-Assisted Gait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torricelli, Diego; Cortés, Camilo; Lete, Nerea; Bertelsen, Álvaro; Gonzalez-Vargas, Jose E.; del-Ama, Antonio J.; Dimbwadyo, Iris; Moreno, Juan C.; Florez, Julian; Pons, Jose L.

    2018-01-01

    The relative motion between human and exoskeleton is a crucial factor that has remarkable consequences on the efficiency, reliability and safety of human-robot interaction. Unfortunately, its quantitative assessment has been largely overlooked in the literature. Here, we present a methodology that allows predicting the motion of the human joints from the knowledge of the angular motion of the exoskeleton frame. Our method combines a subject-specific skeletal model with a kinematic model of a lower limb exoskeleton (H2, Technaid), imposing specific kinematic constraints between them. To calibrate the model and validate its ability to predict the relative motion in a subject-specific way, we performed experiments on seven healthy subjects during treadmill walking tasks. We demonstrate a prediction accuracy lower than 3.5° globally, and around 1.5° at the hip level, which represent an improvement up to 66% compared to the traditional approach assuming no relative motion between the user and the exoskeleton. PMID:29755336

  17. Rigid-Plastic Approximations for Predicting Plastic Deformation of Cylindrical Shells Subject to Dynamic Loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle S. Hoo Fatt

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical approach was developed for predicting the plastic deformation of a cylindrical shell subject to asymmetric dynamic loads. The plastic deformation of the leading generator of the shell is found by solving for the transverse deflections of a rigid-plastic beam/string-on-foundation. The axial bending moment and tensile force in the beam/string are equivalent to the longitudinal bending moments and membrane forces of the shell, while the plastic foundation force is equivalent to the shell circumferential bending moment and membrane resistances. Closed-form solutions for the transient and final deformation profile of an impulsive loaded shell when it is in a “string” state were derived using the eigenfunction expansion method. These results were compared to DYNA 3D predictions. The analytical predictions of the transient shell and final centerline deflections were within 25% of the DYNA 3D results.

  18. Screening for frailty in community-dwelling elderly subjects: Predictive validity of the modified SEGA instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oubaya, N; Dramé, M; Novella, J-L; Quignard, E; Cunin, C; Jolly, D; Mahmoudi, R

    2017-11-01

    To study the capacity of the SEGAm instrument to predict loss of independence among elderly community-dwelling subjects. The study was performed in four French departments (Ardennes, Marne, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Meuse). Subjects aged 65 years or more, living at home, who could read and understand French, with a degree of autonomy corresponding to groups 5 or 6 in the AGGIR autonomy evaluation scale were included. Assessment included demographic characteristics, comprehensive geriatric assessment, and the SEGAm instrument at baseline. Subjects had follow-up visits at home at 6 and 12 months. During follow-up, vital status and level of independence were recorded. Logistic regression was used to study predictive validity of the SEGAm instrument. Among the 116 subjects with complete follow-up, 84 (72.4%) were classed as not very frail at baseline, 23 (19.8%) as frail, and 9 (7.8%) as very frail; 63 (54.3%) suffered loss of at least one ADL or IADL at 12 months. By multivariable analysis, frailty status at baseline was significantly associated with loss of independence during the 12 months of follow-up (OR=4.52, 95% CI=1.40-14.68; p=0.01). We previously validated the SEGAm instrument in terms of feasibility, acceptability, internal structure validity, reliability, and discriminant validity. This instrument appears to be a suitable tool for screening frailty among community-dwelling elderly subjects, and could be used as a basis to plan early targeted interventions for subjects at risk of adverse outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. Current status and future subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Yamamoto, Yasunori; Kusunoki, Takayoshi; Kawasaki, Ikuo; Yanagi, Chihiro; Kinoshita, Ikuo; Iwasaki, Yoshito

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear licensees are required to maintain a prediction system during normal condition for using a nuclear emergency by the Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention of government. With prediction of the incident progress, if the present condition of nuclear power plant is understood appropriately and it grows more serious with keeping the present situation, it is in predicting what kind of situation will be occurred in the near future, choosing the effective countermeasures against the coming threat, and understanding the time available of intervention time. Following the accident on September 30 1999 in the nuclear fuel fabrication facility in Tokai Village of Ibaraki Prefecture, the Institute of Nuclear Safety System started development of incident progress prediction technologies for nuclear emergency preparedness. We have performed technical applications and made improvements in nuclear emergency exercises and verified the developed systems using the observed values of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. As a result, our developed Incident Progress Prediction System was applied to nuclear emergency exercises and we accumulated knowledge and experience by which we improved the system to make predictions more rapidly and more precisely, including for example, the development of a prediction method for leak size of reactor coolant. On the other hand, if a rapidly progressing incident occurs, since end users need simple and quick predictions about the public's protection and evacuation areas, we developed the Radioactive Materials Release, Radiation Dose and Radiological Protection Area Prediction System which changed solving an inverse problem into a forward problem solution. In view of the water-level-decline incident of the spent fuel storage facility at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, the spent fuel storage facility water level and the water temperature evaluation tool were improved. Such incident progress prediction technologies were

  20. Subject-specific computational modeling of DBS in the PPTg area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura M. Zitella

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Deep brain stimulation (DBS in the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPTg has been proposed to alleviate medically intractable gait difficulties associated with Parkinson’s disease. Clinical trials have shown somewhat variable outcomes, stemming in part from surgical targeting variability, modulating fiber pathways implicated in side effects, and a general lack of mechanistic understanding of DBS in this brain region. Subject-specific computational models of DBS are a promising tool to investigate the underlying therapy and side effects. In this study, a parkinsonian rhesus macaque was implanted unilaterally with an 8-contact DBS lead in the PPTg region. Fiber tracts adjacent to PPTg, including the oculomotor nerve, central tegmental tract, and superior cerebellar peduncle, were reconstructed from a combination of pre-implant 7T MRI, post-implant CT, and post-mortem histology. These structures were populated with axon models and coupled with a finite element model simulating the voltage distribution in the surrounding neural tissue during stimulation. This study introduces two empirical approaches to evaluate model parameters. First, incremental monopolar cathodic stimulation (20Hz, 90µs pulse width was evaluated for each electrode, during which a right eyelid flutter was observed at the proximal four contacts (-1.0 to -1.4mA. These current amplitudes followed closely with model predicted activation of the oculomotor nerve when assuming an anisotropic conduction medium. Second, PET imaging was collected OFF-DBS and twice during DBS (two different contacts, which supported the model predicted activation of the central tegmental tract and superior cerebellar peduncle. Together, subject-specific models provide a framework to more precisely predict pathways modulated by DBS.

  1. The Prevalence of Mathematical Anxiety in a Business School: A Comparative Study across Subject Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Howard

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical anxiety is a phenomenon linked to poor attainment in mathematics and restricted development of mathematical skills among those who are afflicted by it. Unfortunately most undergraduate courses in business related areas require the further study of mathematics to enable effective business decision making and students who suffer from mathematical anxiety are placed at risk of underperformance or failure in such quantitative modules. This paper summarizes the results of a survey (n = 330 of students joining a university business school with a view to ascertaining the degree of mathematical anxiety exhibited by incoming students. Results of the survey show no significant differences in anxiety attributable to age or gender but significant differences attributable to level of study and subject area. Implications of the findings for a redesigned teaching approach are discussed drawing on suggestions from the literature surrounding mathematical anxiety.

  2. Predictive modeling of human perception subjectivity: feasibility study of mammographic lesion similarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Songhua; Hudson, Kathleen; Bradley, Yong; Daley, Brian J.; Frederick-Dyer, Katherine; Tourassi, Georgia

    2012-02-01

    The majority of clinical content-based image retrieval (CBIR) studies disregard human perception subjectivity, aiming to duplicate the consensus expert assessment of the visual similarity on example cases. The purpose of our study is twofold: i) discern better the extent of human perception subjectivity when assessing the visual similarity of two images with similar semantic content, and (ii) explore the feasibility of personalized predictive modeling of visual similarity. We conducted a human observer study in which five observers of various expertise were shown ninety-nine triplets of mammographic masses with similar BI-RADS descriptors and were asked to select the two masses with the highest visual relevance. Pairwise agreement ranged between poor and fair among the five observers, as assessed by the kappa statistic. The observers' self-consistency rate was remarkably low, based on repeated questions where either the orientation or the presentation order of a mass was changed. Various machine learning algorithms were explored to determine whether they can predict each observer's personalized selection using textural features. Many algorithms performed with accuracy that exceeded each observer's self-consistency rate, as determined using a cross-validation scheme. This accuracy was statistically significantly higher than would be expected by chance alone (two-tailed p-value ranged between 0.001 and 0.01 for all five personalized models). The study confirmed that human perception subjectivity should be taken into account when developing CBIR-based medical applications.

  3. Blood biomonitoring of metals in subjects living near abandoned mining and active industrial areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madeddu, Roberto; Tolu, Paola; Asara, Yolande; Farace, Cristiano; Forte, Giovanni; Bocca, Beatrice

    2013-07-01

    A human blood biomonitoring campaign to detect the environmental exposure to metals (Cd, Cu, Cr, Mn, Pb and Zn) in 265 subjects was performed in the South-Western part of Sardinia (an Italian island) that is a particular area with a great history of coal and metal mining (Pb/Zn mainly) activities and large industrial structures (as metallurgy). Subjects living near the industrial plant area had geometric means (GM) of blood Cd (0.79 μg/l), Cu (971 μg/l), Mn (12.2 μg/l), and Pb (55.7 μg/l) significantly higher than controls (Cd, 0.47 μg/l; Cu, 900 μg/l; Mn 9.98 μg/l; Pb, 26.5 μg/l) and than people living nearby the past mining sites. Subjects living next to one dismissed mine were statistically higher in blood Cu (GM, 1,022 μg/l) and Pb (GM, 41.4 μg/l) concentrations than controls. No differences were observed in people living in the different mining sites, and this might be related to the decennial disclosure of mines and the adoption of environmental remediation programmes. Some interindividual variables influenced blood biomonitoring data, as smoke and age for Cd, gender for Cu, age, sex and alcohol for Pb, and age for Zn. Moreover, blood metal levels of the whole population were similar to reference values representative of the Sardinian population and acceptably safe according to currently available health guidelines.

  4. Simple area-based measurement for multidetector computed tomography to predict left ventricular size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlett, Christopher L.; Kwait, Dylan C.; Mahabadi, Amir A.; Hoffmann, Udo; Bamberg, Fabian; O'Donnell, Christopher J.; Fox, Caroline S.

    2010-01-01

    Measures of left ventricular (LV) mass and dimensions are independent predictors of morbidity and mortality. We determined whether an axial area-based method by computed tomography (CT) provides an accurate estimate of LV mass and volume. A total of 45 subjects (49% female, 56.0 ± 12 years) with a wide range of LV geometry underwent contrast-enhanced 64-slice CT. LV mass and volume were derived from 3D data. 2D images were analysed to determine LV area, the direct transverse cardiac diameter (dTCD) and the cardiothoracic ratio (CTR). Furthermore, feasibility was confirmed in 100 Framingham Offspring Cohort subjects. 2D measures of LV area, dTCD and CTR were 47.3 ± 8 cm 2 , 14.7 ± 1.5 cm and 0.54 ± 0.05, respectively. 3D-derived LV volume (end-diastolic) and mass were 148.9 ± 45 cm 3 and 124.2 ± 34 g, respectively. Excellent inter- and intra-observer agreement were shown for 2D LV area measurements (both intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) = 0.99, p 0.27). Compared with traditionally used CTR, LV size can be accurately predicted based on a simple and highly reproducible axial LV area-based measurement. (orig.)

  5. Predictive Clinical Parameters and Glycemic Efficacy of Vildagliptin Treatment in Korean Subjects with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Sun Chang

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe aims of this study are to investigate the glycemic efficacy and predictive parameters of vildagliptin therapy in Korean subjects with type 2 diabetes.MethodsIn this retrospective study, we retrieved data for subjects who were on twice-daily 50 mg vildagliptin for at least 6 months, and classified the subjects into five treatment groups. In three of the groups, we added vildagliptin to their existing medication regimen; in the other two groups, we replaced one of their existing medications with vildagliptin. We then analyzed the changes in glucose parameters and clinical characteristics.ResultsUltimately, 327 subjects were analyzed in this study. Vildagliptin significantly improved hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c levels over 6 months. The changes in HbA1c levels (ΔHbA1c at month 6 were -2.24% (P=0.000, -0.77% (P=0.000, -0.80% (P=0.001, -0.61% (P=0.000, and -0.34% (P=0.025 for groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively, with significance. We also found significant decrements in fasting plasma glucose levels in groups 1, 2, 3, and 4 (P<0.05. Of the variables, initial HbA1c levels (P=0.032 and history of sulfonylurea use (P=0.026 were independently associated with responsiveness to vildagliptin treatment.ConclusionVildagliptin was effective when it was used in subjects with poor glycemic control. It controlled fasting plasma glucose levels as well as sulfonylurea treatment in Korean type 2 diabetic subjects.

  6. Improving Students' Transfer of Learning among Subject Areas through the Use of an Integrated Curriculum and Alternative Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boidy, Tish; Moran, Michelle

    An intervention program sought to improve third- and fifth- grade students' ability to transfer learning among subject areas and to apply their learning to everyday occurrences. Surveys and interviews revealed the lack of student transference of knowledge among subject areas; teacher surveys and an interview with the curriculum director provided…

  7. Prediction of thermal and mechanical stress-strain responses of TMC's subjected to complex TMF histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W. S.; Mirdamadi, M.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents an experimental and analytical evaluation of cross-plied laminates of Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn (Ti-15-3) matrix reinforced with continuous silicon-carbide fibers (SCS-6) subjected to a complex TMF loading profile. Thermomechanical fatigue test techniques were developed to conduct a simulation of a generic hypersonic flight profile. A micromechanical analysis was used. The analysis predicts the stress-strain response of the laminate and of the constituents in each ply during thermal and mechanical cycling by using only constituent properties as input. The fiber was modeled as elastic with transverse orthotropic and temperature-dependent properties. The matrix was modeled using a thermoviscoplastic constitutive relation. The fiber transverse modulus was reduced in the analysis to simulate the fiber-matrix interface failures. Excellent correlation was found between measured and predicted laminate stress-strain response due to generic hypersonic flight profile when fiber debonding was modeled.

  8. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This report documents the outcome of the assessment.

  9. Do Electrochemiluminescence Assays Improve Prediction of Time to Type 1 Diabetes in Autoantibody-Positive TrialNet Subjects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouts, Alexandra; Pyle, Laura; Yu, Liping; Miao, Dongmei; Michels, Aaron; Krischer, Jeffrey; Sosenko, Jay; Gottlieb, Peter; Steck, Andrea K

    2016-10-01

    To explore whether electrochemiluminescence (ECL) assays can help improve prediction of time to type 1 diabetes in the TrialNet autoantibody-positive population. TrialNet subjects who were positive for one or more autoantibodies (microinsulin autoantibody, GAD65 autoantibody [GADA], IA-2A, and ZnT8A) with available ECL-insulin autoantibody (IAA) and ECL-GADA data at their initial visit were analyzed; after a median follow-up of 24 months, 177 of these 1,287 subjects developed diabetes. Univariate analyses showed that autoantibodies by radioimmunoassays (RIAs), ECL-IAA, ECL-GADA, age, sex, number of positive autoantibodies, presence of HLA DR3/4-DQ8 genotype, HbA1c, and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) measurements were all significantly associated with progression to diabetes. Subjects who were ECL positive had a risk of progression to diabetes within 6 years of 58% compared with 5% for the ECL-negative subjects (P < 0.0001). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were compared, with the base model including age, sex, OGTT measurements, and number of positive autoantibodies by RIAs. The model with positivity for ECL-GADA and/or ECL-IAA was the best, and factors that remained significantly associated with time to diabetes were area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide, fasting C-peptide, AUC glucose, number of positive autoantibodies by RIAs, and ECL positivity. Adding ECL to the Diabetes Prevention Trial risk score (DPTRS) improved the receiver operating characteristic curves with AUC of 0.83 (P < 0.0001). ECL assays improved the ability to predict time to diabetes in these autoantibody-positive relatives at risk for developing diabetes. These findings might be helpful in the design and eligibility criteria for prevention trials in the future. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association.

  10. Environmental protection foliar fertilization in areas subject to limitation of fertilizers use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavriluta, I.; Alexandrescu, A; Budoi, G.; Bireescu, L.; Bireescu, G.

    1999-01-01

    Significant increases of plant productivity have been recorded in field experiments conducted between 1991 - 1994 using general purpose complex foliar fertilizers as well as aminoacid containing complex foliar fertilizers. These increases at the same time had positive environmental effects against chemical pollution, especially with nitrates. As a rule, the greater the degree of nutrient efficiency, especially of nitrate, the lower are the losses, which are subject to transfer to the environment. So in the light of environmental protection against chemical pollution using foliar fertilization is certainly beneficial for crops and for all other components of the agricultural environment giving rise to its significant improvement. Both, foliar and soil fertilization in areas with limitation of fertilizer use should be carried out under a continuous and strict analytical check of plant, soil and water. Refs. 14 (author)

  11. Refractive error study in young subjects: results from a rural area in Paraguay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Signes-Soler

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To evaluate the distribution of refractive error in young subjects in a rural area of Paraguay in the context of an international cooperation campaign for the prevention of blindness. METHODS: A sample of 1466 young subjects (ranging from 3 to 22 years old, with a mean age of 11.21±3.63 years old, were examined to assess their distance visual acuity (VA and refractive error. The first screening examination performed by trained volunteers, included visual acuity testing, autokeratometry and non-cycloplegic autorefraction. Inclusion criteria for a second complete cycloplegic eye examination by an optometrist were VA <20/25 (0.10 logMAR or 0.8 decimal and/or corneal astigmatism ≥1.50 D. RESULTS: An uncorrected distance VA of 0 logMAR (1.0 decimal was found in 89.2% of children. VA <20/25 and/or corneal astigmatism ≥1.50 D was found in 3.9% of children (n=57, with a prevalence of hyperopia of 5.2% (0.2% of the total in this specific group. Furthermore, myopia (spherical equivalent ≤-0.5 D was found in 37.7% of the refracted children (0.5% of the total. The prevalence of refractive astigmatism (cylinder ≤-1.50 D was 15.8% (0.6% of the total. Visual impairment (VI (0.05≤VA≤0.3 was found in 12/114 (0.4% of the refracted eyes. Main causes for VI were refractive error (58%, retinal problems (17%, 2/12, albinism (17%, 2/12 and unknown (8%, 1/12. CONCLUSION: A low prevalence of refractive error has been found in this rural area of Paraguay, with higher prevalence of myopia than of hyperopia.

  12. Factors associated with diabetes mellitus prediction among pregnant Arab subjects with gestational diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aljohani, Naji; Al Serehi, Amal; Ahmed, Amjad M; Buhary, Badr Aldin M; Alzahrani, Saad; At-Taras, Eeman; Almujally, Najla; Alsharqi, Maha; Alqahtani, Mohammed; Almalki, Mussa

    2015-01-01

    There is scarcity of available information on the possible significant risk factors related to diabetes mellitus (DM) prediction among expectant Saudi mothers with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The present study is the first to identify such risk factors in the Arab cohort. A total of 300 pregnant subjects (mean age 33.45 ± 6.5 years) were randomly selected from all the deliveries registered at the Obstetrics Department of King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh Saudi Arabia from April 2011 to March 2013. Demographic and baseline glycemic information were collected. A total of 7 highly significant and independent risk factors were identified: age, obesity, and family history of DM, GDM < 20 weeks, macrosomia, insulin therapy and recurrent GDM. Among these factors, subjects who had insulin therapy use are 5 times more likely to develop DMT2 (p-value 3.94 × 10(-14)) followed by recurrent GDM [odds-ratio 4.69 (Confidence Interval 2.34-4.84); P = 1.24 × 10(-13)). The identification of the risk factors mentioned with their respective predictive powers in the detection of DMT2 needs to be taken seriously in the post-partum assessment of Saudi pregnant patients at highest risk.

  13. Facebook use predicts declines in subjective well-being in young adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ethan Kross

    Full Text Available Over 500 million people interact daily with Facebook. Yet, whether Facebook use influences subjective well-being over time is unknown. We addressed this issue using experience-sampling, the most reliable method for measuring in-vivo behavior and psychological experience. We text-messaged people five times per day for two-weeks to examine how Facebook use influences the two components of subjective well-being: how people feel moment-to-moment and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our results indicate that Facebook use predicts negative shifts on both of these variables over time. The more people used Facebook at one time point, the worse they felt the next time we text-messaged them; the more they used Facebook over two-weeks, the more their life satisfaction levels declined over time. Interacting with other people "directly" did not predict these negative outcomes. They were also not moderated by the size of people's Facebook networks, their perceived supportiveness, motivation for using Facebook, gender, loneliness, self-esteem, or depression. On the surface, Facebook provides an invaluable resource for fulfilling the basic human need for social connection. Rather than enhancing well-being, however, these findings suggest that Facebook may undermine it.

  14. Cognitive Components Predict Virtual Reality-Induced Analgesia: Repeated Measures in Healthy Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naor Demeter

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Virtual reality (VR is an advanced and useful technology in the distraction from pain. The efficacy of VR for reducing pain is well established. Yet, the literature analyzing the unique attributes of VR which impact pain reduction is scarce. The present study evaluated the effect of two VR environments on experimental pain levels. Both VR environments are games used with an EyeToy application which is part of the video capture VR family. The VR environments were analyzed by expert occupational therapists using a method of activity analysis, allowing for a thorough evaluation of the VR activity performance requirements. The VR environments were found to differ in the cognitive load (CL demands they apply upon subjects. Sixty-two healthy students underwent psychophysical thermal pain tests, followed by exposure to tonic heat stimulation under one of three conditions: Low CL (LCL VR, high CL (HCL VR, and control. In addition, following participation in VR, the subjects completed a self-feedback inventory evaluating their experience in VR. The results showed significantly greater pain reduction during both VR conditions compared to the control condition (p = 0.001. Hierarchical regression revealed cognitive components which were evaluated in the self-feedback inventory to be predictive factors for pain reduction only during the high cognitive load (HCL VR environment (20.2%. CL involved in VR may predict the extent of pain decrease, a finding that should be considered in future clinical and laboratory research.

  15. Spatial variability of soil potassium in sugarcane areas subjected to the application of vinasse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LAÉRCIO A. DE CARVALHO

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available When deposited on land the vinasse can promote improvement in fertility, however, often fertilizer application occurs in areas considered homogeneous, without taking into account the variability of the soil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of vinasse application on potassium content in two classes of soils cultivated with sugarcane, and characterize the spatial variability of soil using geostatistical techniques. In the 2010 and 2011 crop year, soil samples were collected from an experimental grid at 0-0.2 and 0.2-0.4 m depth in three soils cultivated with sugarcane, totaling 90 samplings in each grid, for the determination of pH, calcium (Ca, magnesium (Mg, potassium (K, phosphorus (P, aluminum (Al and potential acidity (H + Al. The data have been submitted to analysis of descriptive statistics and the K attribute was subjected to geostatistical analysis. The coefficient of variation indicated medium and high variability of K for the three soils. The results showed that the spatial dependence of K increased in depth to FRce and decreased to PHlv, indicating that the attribute could have followed the pattern of distribution of clay in depth. The investigation of the spatial variability of K on the surface and subsurface soils provided the definition of management zones with different levels of fertility, which can be organized into sub-areas for a more efficient management of the resources and the environment.

  16. Executive functioning performance predicts subjective and physiological acute stress reactivity: preliminary results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrawan, Donny; Yamakawa, Kaori; Kimura, Motohiro; Murakami, Hiroki; Ohira, Hideki

    2012-06-01

    Individual differences in baseline executive functioning (EF) capacities have been shown to predict state anxiety during acute stressor exposure. However, no previous studies have clearly demonstrated the relationship between EF and physiological measures of stress. The present study investigated the efficacy of several well-known EF tests (letter fluency, Stroop test, and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test) in predicting both subjective and physiological stress reactivity during acute psychosocial stress exposure. Our results show that letter fluency served as the best predictor for both types of reactivity. Specifically, the higher the letter fluency score, the lower the acute stress reactivity after controlling for the baseline stress response, as indicated by lower levels of state anxiety, negative mood, salivary cortisol, and skin conductance. Moreover, the predictive power of the letter fluency test remained significant for state anxiety and cortisol indices even after further adjustments for covariates by adding the body mass index (BMI) as a covariate. Thus, good EF performance, as reflected by high letter fluency scores, may dampen acute stress responses, which suggests that EF processes are directly associated with aspects of stress regulation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF COMPOSITE BEAM SUBJECTED TO COMBINED NEGATIVE BENDING AND AXIAL TENSION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MAHESAN BAVAN

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The present study has investigated the finite element method (FEM techniques of composite beam subjected to combined axial tension and negative bending. The negative bending regions of composite beams are influenced by worsen failures due to various levels of axial tensile loads on steel section especially in the regions near internal supports. Three dimensional solid FEM model was developed to accurately predict the unfavourable phenomenon of cracking of concrete and compression of steel in the negative bending regions of composite beam due to axial tensile loads. The prediction of quasi-static solution was extensively analysed with various deformation speeds and energy stabilities. The FEM model was then validated with existing experimental data. Reasonable agreements were observed between the results of FEM model and experimental analysis in the combination of vertical-axial forces and failure modes on ultimate limit state behaviour. The local failure modes known as shear studs failure, excess yielding on steel beam and crushing on concrete were completely verified by extensive similarity between the numerical and experimental results. Finally, a proper way of modelling techniques for large FEM models by considering uncertainties of material behaviour due to biaxial loadings and complex contact interactions is discussed. Further, the model is suggested for the limit state prediction of composite beam with calibrating necessary degree of the combined axial loads.

  18. Musical emotions: predicting second-by-second subjective feelings of emotion from low-level psychoacoustic features and physiological measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coutinho, Eduardo; Cangelosi, Angelo

    2011-08-01

    We sustain that the structure of affect elicited by music is largely dependent on dynamic temporal patterns in low-level music structural parameters. In support of this claim, we have previously provided evidence that spatiotemporal dynamics in psychoacoustic features resonate with two psychological dimensions of affect underlying judgments of subjective feelings: arousal and valence. In this article we extend our previous investigations in two aspects. First, we focus on the emotions experienced rather than perceived while listening to music. Second, we evaluate the extent to which peripheral feedback in music can account for the predicted emotional responses, that is, the role of physiological arousal in determining the intensity and valence of musical emotions. Akin to our previous findings, we will show that a significant part of the listeners' reported emotions can be predicted from a set of six psychoacoustic features--loudness, pitch level, pitch contour, tempo, texture, and sharpness. Furthermore, the accuracy of those predictions is improved with the inclusion of physiological cues--skin conductance and heart rate. The interdisciplinary work presented here provides a new methodology to the field of music and emotion research based on the combination of computational and experimental work, which aid the analysis of the emotional responses to music, while offering a platform for the abstract representation of those complex relationships. Future developments may aid specific areas, such as, psychology and music therapy, by providing coherent descriptions of the emotional effects of specific music stimuli. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

  19. Snow multivariable data assimilation for hydrological predictions in mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazzi, Gaia; Campo, Lorenzo; Gabellani, Simone; Rudari, Roberto; Castelli, Fabio; Cremonese, Edoardo; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Stevenin, Hervé; Ratto, Sara Maria

    2016-04-01

    -based and remotely sensed data of different snow-related variables (snow albedo and surface temperature, Snow Water Equivalent from passive microwave sensors and Snow Cover Area). SMASH performance was evaluated in the period June 2012 - December 2013 at the meteorological station of Torgnon (Tellinod, 2 160 msl), located in Aosta Valley, a mountain region in northwestern Italy. The EnKF algorithm was firstly tested by assimilating several ground-based measurements: snow depth, land surface temperature, snow density and albedo. The assimilation of snow observed data revealed an overall considerable enhancement of model predictions with respect to the open loop experiments. A first attempt to integrate also remote sensed information was performed by assimilating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) from METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG), leading to good results. The analysis allowed identifying the snow depth and the snowpack surface temperature as the most impacting variables in the assimilation process. In order to pinpoint an optimal number of ensemble instances, SMASH performances were also quantitatively evaluated by varying the instances amount. Furthermore, the impact of the data assimilation frequency was analyzed by varying the assimilation time step (3h, 6h, 12h, 24h).

  20. The importance of subjective facial appearance on the ability of anesthesiologists to predict difficult intubation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Christopher W; Segal, Scott

    2014-02-01

    Previously we demonstrated that a computer algorithm based on bedside airway examinations and facial photographs accurately classified easy and difficult airways. The extent of the ability of anesthesiologists to perform the same task is unknown. We hypothesized that providing photographs would add to the predictive ability of anesthesiologists over that achieved when provided only with the Mallampati (MP) score and the thyromental distance (TMD). We further hypothesized that human observers would implicitly bias their predictions toward more sensitive determination of difficult airways, rather than more specific determination of easy airways. Residents, fellows, and attending anesthesiologists with varying levels of experience (N = 160) were presented with MP and TMD information from 80 Caucasian men subjects. The same subjects' data, accompanied by 3 facial photographs in head-on and right and left profiles, were also presented. Anesthesiologists classified the airways as easy or difficult according to specified criteria ("easy" defined as a single attempt with a Macintosh 3 blade resulting in a grade 1 laryngoscopic view; "difficult" defined as >1 attempt by an operator with at least 12 months anesthesia experience, grade 3 or 4 laryngoscopic view, need for a second operator, or nonelective use of an alternative airway device). Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated for each anesthesiologist. We further developed a cost function to quantify a relative bias toward avoiding an unexpectedly difficult intubation versus overpreparing for an easy intubation. One hundred sixty respondents completed the study. Presenting photographs improved respondents' sensitivity and accuracy in classifying airways, though specificity decreased slightly. Overall accuracy when given photographs was 61.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.8%-62.4%), which was significantly lower than the computer's performance of 87.5% (t test, P interval, 4.9:1-8.4:1). Anesthesiologists can

  1. Striatal μ-opioid receptor availability predicts cold pressor pain threshold in healthy human subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagelberg, Nora; Aalto, Sargo; Tuominen, Lauri

    2012-01-01

    the potential associations between μ-opioid receptor BP(ND) and psychophysical measures. The results show that striatal μ-opioid receptor BP(ND) predicts cold pressor pain threshold, but not cold pressor pain tolerance or tactile sensitivity. This finding suggests that striatal μ-opioid receptor density......Previous PET studies in healthy humans have shown that brain μ-opioid receptor activation during experimental pain is associated with reductions in the sensory and affective ratings of the individual pain experience. The aim of this study was to find out whether brain μ-opioid receptor binding...... at the resting state, in absence of painful stimulation, can be a long-term predictor of experimental pain sensitivity. We measured μ-opioid receptor binding potential (BP(ND)) with μ-opioid receptor selective radiotracer [(11)C]carfentanil and positron emission tomography (PET) in 12 healthy male subjects...

  2. Predictive maintenance policy for a gradually deteriorating system subject to stress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deloux, E. [IRCCyN/Ecole des Mines de Nantes, Nantes (France); Castanier, B. [IRCCyN/Ecole des Mines de Nantes, Nantes (France)], E-mail: bruno.castanier@emn.fr; Berenguer, C. [Universite de Technologie de Troyes/CNRS, Troyes (France)

    2009-02-15

    This paper deals with a predictive maintenance policy for a continuously deteriorating system subject to stress. We consider a system with two failure mechanisms which are, respectively, due to an excessive deterioration level and a shock. To optimize the maintenance policy of the system, an approach combining statistical process control (SPC) and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is proposed. CBM policy is used to inspect and replace the system according to the observed deterioration level. SPC is used to monitor the stress covariate. In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long-run expected maintenance cost per unit of time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived. Analysis based on numerical results are conducted to highlight the properties of the proposed maintenance policy in respect to the different maintenance parameters.

  3. Predictive maintenance policy for a gradually deteriorating system subject to stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deloux, E.; Castanier, B.; Berenguer, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with a predictive maintenance policy for a continuously deteriorating system subject to stress. We consider a system with two failure mechanisms which are, respectively, due to an excessive deterioration level and a shock. To optimize the maintenance policy of the system, an approach combining statistical process control (SPC) and condition-based maintenance (CBM) is proposed. CBM policy is used to inspect and replace the system according to the observed deterioration level. SPC is used to monitor the stress covariate. In order to assess the performance of the proposed maintenance policy and to minimize the long-run expected maintenance cost per unit of time, a mathematical model for the maintained system cost is derived. Analysis based on numerical results are conducted to highlight the properties of the proposed maintenance policy in respect to the different maintenance parameters

  4. Subjective social status predicts in vivo responsiveness of β-adrenergic receptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euteneuer, Frank; Mills, Paul J; Rief, Winfried; Ziegler, Michael G; Dimsdale, Joel E

    2012-07-01

    Several poor health outcomes, including cardiovascular risk, have been associated with both subjective social status (SSS) and sympathetic overactivity. Because prolonged sympathetic overactivation down regulates beta adrenergic receptor (β-AR) function, reduced β-AR responsiveness is considered an indicator of sympathetic overactivity and a cardiovascular risk factor. Though prior research has focused on objective social status and β-AR function, no studies have examined the association between SSS and β-AR function. We aimed to learn whether SSS predicts the in vivo responsiveness of β-ARs. We assessed the chronotropic 25 dose (CD25), an in vivo marker of β-AR responsiveness, in 94 healthy participants. The MacArthur scales of subjective social status were used to assess SSS in the U.S.A. (SSS-USA) and in the local community (SSS-C). Objective social status was analyzed by calculating the Hollingshead two-factor index. β-AR responsiveness was reduced (as indicated by higher CD25 values) in participants with lower SSS-USA (p = .007) and lower SSS-C (p social status. Our results indicate that β-AR function may be an important component of the link between SSS and health.

  5. Beyond intensity: Spectral features effectively predict music-induced subjective arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingras, Bruno; Marin, Manuela M; Fitch, W Tecumseh

    2014-01-01

    Emotions in music are conveyed by a variety of acoustic cues. Notably, the positive association between sound intensity and arousal has particular biological relevance. However, although amplitude normalization is a common procedure used to control for intensity in music psychology research, direct comparisons between emotional ratings of original and amplitude-normalized musical excerpts are lacking. In this study, 30 nonmusicians retrospectively rated the subjective arousal and pleasantness induced by 84 six-second classical music excerpts, and an additional 30 nonmusicians rated the same excerpts normalized for amplitude. Following the cue-redundancy and Brunswik lens models of acoustic communication, we hypothesized that arousal and pleasantness ratings would be similar for both versions of the excerpts, and that arousal could be predicted effectively by other acoustic cues besides intensity. Although the difference in mean arousal and pleasantness ratings between original and amplitude-normalized excerpts correlated significantly with the amplitude adjustment, ratings for both sets of excerpts were highly correlated and shared a similar range of values, thus validating the use of amplitude normalization in music emotion research. Two acoustic parameters, spectral flux and spectral entropy, accounted for 65% of the variance in arousal ratings for both sets, indicating that spectral features can effectively predict arousal. Additionally, we confirmed that amplitude-normalized excerpts were adequately matched for loudness. Overall, the results corroborate our hypotheses and support the cue-redundancy and Brunswik lens models.

  6. Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lund, Rikke

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. PARTICIPANTS: 36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50-100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health......, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. METHODS: Mortality risk associated with Comorbidity Index, Frailty Index, Frailty Phenotype, and subjective health was analysed using Cox regression. The extent to which health indicators modified individual mortality risk predictions was examined and the added ability......, and household income. CONCLUSION: Calendar age encompasses most of the discrimination ability to predict mortality. The added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions decreases with increasing age....

  7. Prediction of Cognitive Performance and Subjective Sleepiness Using a Model of Arousal Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postnova, Svetlana; Lockley, Steven W; Robinson, Peter A

    2018-04-01

    A model of arousal dynamics is applied to predict objective performance and subjective sleepiness measures, including lapses and reaction time on a visual Performance Vigilance Test (vPVT), performance on a mathematical addition task (ADD), and the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS). The arousal dynamics model is comprised of a physiologically based flip-flop switch between the wake- and sleep-active neuronal populations and a dynamic circadian oscillator, thus allowing prediction of sleep propensity. Published group-level experimental constant routine (CR) and forced desynchrony (FD) data are used to calibrate the model to predict performance and sleepiness. Only the studies using dim light (performance measures during CR and FD protocols, with sleep-wake cycles ranging from 20 to 42.85 h and a 2:1 wake-to-sleep ratio. New metrics relating model outputs to performance and sleepiness data are developed and tested against group average outcomes from 7 (vPVT lapses), 5 (ADD), and 8 (KSS) experimental protocols, showing good quantitative and qualitative agreement with the data (root mean squared error of 0.38, 0.19, and 0.35, respectively). The weights of the homeostatic and circadian effects are found to be different between the measures, with KSS having stronger homeostatic influence compared with the objective measures of performance. Using FD data in addition to CR data allows us to challenge the model in conditions of both acute sleep deprivation and structured circadian misalignment, ensuring that the role of the circadian and homeostatic drives in performance is properly captured.

  8. Large-area dry bean yield prediction modeling in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given the importance of dry bean in Mexico, crop yield predictions before harvest are valuable for authorities of the agricultural sector, in order to define support for producers. The aim of this study was to develop an empirical model to estimate the yield of dry bean at the regional level prior t...

  9. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 5 months and probabilistic forecast performances evaluated for extreme rainfall thresholds of the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The verification of the retroactive forecasts shows that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended ...

  10. What factors predict individual subjects' re-learning of words during anomia treatment?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Hayward

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A growing number of studies are addressing methodological approaches to treating anomia in persons with aphasia. What is missing from these studies are validated procedures for determining which words have the greatest potential for recovery. The current study evaluates the usefulness of several word-specific variables and one subject-specific measure in predicting success in re-learning problematic words. Methods: Two participants, YPR and ODH, presented with fluent aphasia and marked anomia. YPR’s Aphasia Quotient on the Western Aphasia Battery was 58.8; ODH’s AQ was 79.5. Stimuli were 96 pictures chosen individually for each participant from among those that they named incorrectly on multiple baselines. Subsequently, participants were presented with each picture and asked to indicate whether they could name it covertly, or “in their head.” Each subject completed a biweekly anomia treatment for these pictures. We performed separate statistical analyses for each subject. Dependent variables included whether each word was learned during treatment (Acquisition and the number of sessions required to learn each word (#Sessions. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the association of (self-reported covert naming success with Acquisition, and linear regression models to assess the relationship between (self-reported covert naming success and #Sessions. Starting with the predictors of covert naming accuracy, number of syllables (#syllables, number of phonemes (#phonemes, and frequency, we used backwards elimination methods to select the final regression models. Results: By the end of 25 treatment sessions, YPR had learned 90.2% (37/41 of the covertly correct words but only 70.4% (38/54 of the covertly incorrect words. In the unadjusted analysis, covert naming was significantly associated with Acquisition, OR=3.89, 95% CI: (1.19, 12.74, p=0.025. The result remained significant after adjustment for #phonemes (the only other predictor

  11. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Lake Kariba catchment area in southern Africa has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin, with an extreme range of conditions across the catchment and through time. Marked seasonal and interannual fluctuations in rainfall...

  12. Individual differences in attributional style but not in interoceptive sensitivity, predict subjective estimates of action intention.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tegan ePenton

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the existence of free will is on-going. Seminal findings by Libet et al. demonstrate that subjective awareness of a voluntary urge to act (the W-judgement occurs before action execution. Libet’s paradigm requires participants to perform voluntary actions while watching a clock hand rotate. On response trials, participants make a retrospective judgement related to awareness of their urge to act. This research investigates the relationship between individual differences in performance on the Libet task and self-awareness. We examined the relationship between W-judgement, Attributional Style (AS; a measure of perceived control and interoceptive sensitivity (IS; awareness of stimuli originating from one’s body; e.g. heartbeats. Thirty participants completed the AS questionnaire (ASQ, a heartbeat estimation task (IS, and the Libet paradigm. The ASQ score significantly predicted performance on the Libet task, while IS did not - more negative ASQ scores indicated larger latency between W-judgement and action execution. A significant correlation was also observed between ASQ score and IS. This is the first research to report a relationship between W-judgement and AS and should inform the future use of electroencephalography to investigate the relationship between AS, W-judgement and RP onset. Our findings raise questions surrounding the importance of one’s perceived control in determining the point of conscious intention to act. Furthermore, we demonstrate possible negative implications associated with a longer period between conscious awareness and action execution.

  13. Simple, spatial and predictive approach for cereal yield prediction in the semi-arid areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toumi, Jihad; Khabba, Said; Er-Raki, Salah; Le page, Michel; Chahbi Bellakanji, Aicha; Lili Chabaane, Zohra; Ezzahar, Jamal; Zribi, Mehrez; Jarlan, Lionel

    2016-04-01

    The objective is to develop a simple, spatial and predictive approach of dry matter (DM) and grain yield (GY) of cereal in the semi-arid areas. The proposed method is based on the three efficiencies model of Monteith (1972). This approach summarizes the transformation of solar radiation to the dry matter (DM) by the climate (ɛc), interception (ɛi) and conversion (ɛconv) efficiencies. The method combines the maximum of ɛi and ɛconv (noted ɛimax and ɛconvmax) into a single parameter denoted ɛmax, calculating as a function of cumulating growing degree day (CGDD). Also, the stress coefficient ks, which affects the conversion of solar radiation to the biomass was calculated by the surface temperature or the water balance at the root zone. In addition, the expression of ks has been improved by the consideration of the results achieved by deficit irrigation (AquaCrop and STICS models) which showed that the value of ks from 0.7 to 1 didn't affect significantly the cereal production. For the partitioning of the dry matter developed, between straw and grain, the method proposed calculates a variable Harvest Index coefficient (HI). HI is deducted from CGDD and HI0max (maximal final harvest Index in the region of study). Finally, the approach calculates DM depending Satellite Information (NDVI and surface temperature Ts) and climatic data (solar radiation and air temperature). In the case of no availability of Ts, the amount of irrigation is required to calculate ks. Until now, the developed model has been calibrated and validated on the irrigated area R3, located 40 Km east of Marrakech. The evolutions of DM and GY were reproduced satisfactorily. R2 and RMSE are respectively 0.98 and 0.35 t/ha and 0.98 and 0.19 t/ha, respectively. Currently, additional tests are in progress on data relating to the Kairouan plain of Tunisia.

  14. Cesium residue leachate migration in the tailings management area of a mine site : predicted vs. actual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solylo, P.; Ramsey, D. [Wardrop Engineering, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Mining and Minerals Section

    2009-07-01

    This paper reported on a study at a cesium products facility (CPF) that manufactures a non-toxic cesium-formate drilling fluid. The facility operates adjacent to a pollucite/tantalum/spodumene mine. The CPF was developed as a closed system, with the residue tailings slurry from the CPF process discharged to doublelined containment cells. Groundwater monitoring has shown that leachate has affected near-surface porewater quality within the tailings management area (TMA). Elevated concentrations of calcium, sulphate, strontium, cesium, and rubidium were used to identify the leachate. Porewater at the base of the tailings and in the overburden beneath the tailings has not been affected. A geochemical investigation was initiated to determine how the leachate behaves in the groundwater/tailings porewater system. Over the past 7 years of residue placement in the TMA, the footprint of the residue placement area has changed, making the comparison of predicted versus actual rate of leachate migration very subjective and difficult to quantify. Based solely on the analytical data, the source of the leachate is unknown, either from the original residue pile or the 2007 residue placement area. For purposes of long term residue management, an investigation of the geochemical behaviour of residue leachate in the groundwater/tailings system of the TMA is currently underway. 5 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs.

  15. Evaluation of thyroid function in female subjects living in the high natural background radiation area of Karunagappally, Kerala

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sreekumar, A.; Nair, Raghu Ram K.; Jayalakshmi, P.; Sebastian, P.; Akiba, S.

    2010-01-01

    Radiation exposure has been reported to cause non cancer thyroid abnormalities like diffuse goiter and thyroid nodules. The present study was undertaken to see if there are any morphological and functional changes taking place in the thyroid due to chronic low level radiation exposure. 257 female subjects living in the four high background radiation panchayats of Chavara, Neendakara, Alappad and Panmana were selected for the study after getting informed consent. 5 ml of blood was drawn from these subjects for assessing thyroid function. The subjects were all staying in the same area since their birth and had not moved out for more than one year at a stretch. The average age of the subjects was 40.5y with a range of 17-66y. The cumulative dose had a mean of 226.3 mGy and a range of 20.6-937.8 mGy. 95 subjects from the low background area of Oachira and Thevalakkara were selected as controls in the age group of 18-63y with a mean age of 47.1y. The mean cumulative dose of this group was 35.9 mGy with a minimum of 5.3 mGy and a maximum of 106.8 mGy. 5 ml blood was collected from these subjects for thyroid function studies. All the subjects underwent ultrasound examination of the thyroid using a 10 MHz frequency linear probe. The following parameters were studied to assess thyroid function: Free T4, TSH, Antithyroglobulin antibody (ATG), Parathyroid hormone. Ultrasound images showed the following common features: Normal - 171, Suggestive of Thyroiditis - 106, Multinodular Goitre - 63, Diffuse Goitre - 5, Solitary Nodule - 31. 73 subjects had elevated TSH and 190 subjects had raised ATG. A significant numbers of subjects had features of thyroiditis. A comparative evaluation with control subjects will be done to assess its significance with reference to cumulative dose

  16. Soil protection strategies in Brandenburg - management of waste recycling on devastated areas subject to recultivation (soil protection in recultivation areas)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, M.; Bannick, C.G.

    1996-01-01

    The article reflects on consideration in the Land (Federal State) Brandenburg in the preliminary stages of a Land regulation on the recycling of wastes on devasted brown coal mining areas from the viewpoint of soil protection. Within the framework of a proposed recultivation, the benefit and harmlessness of recycling shall be examined. The benefits are derived from the preservation, improvement and restoration of soil functions without detrimental effects on other soil functions. In order to make full use of the benefits, a graduated, site-specific system for the main nutrients is presented. For pollutants, different approaches for limitation of the input are discussed. 36 refs., 1 fig., 12 tabs

  17. Body surface area prediction in normal, hypermuscular, and obese mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Michael C; Spalding, Paul B; Gutierrez, Juan C; Balkan, Wayne; Namias, Nicholas; Koniaris, Leonidas G; Zimmers, Teresa A

    2009-05-15

    Accurate determination of body surface area (BSA) in experimental animals is essential for modeling effects of burn injury or drug metabolism. Two-dimensional surface area is related to three-dimensional body volume, which in turn can be estimated from body mass. The Meeh equation relates body surface area to the two-thirds power of body mass, through a constant, k, which must be determined empirically by species and size. We found older values of k overestimated BSA in certain mice; thus we determined empirically k for various strains of normal, obese, and hypermuscular mice. BSA was computed from digitally scanned pelts and nonlinear regression analysis was used to determine the best-fit k. The empirically determined k for C57BL/6J mice of 9.82 was not significantly different from other inbred and outbred mouse strains of normal body composition. However, mean k of the nearly spheroid, obese lepr(db/db) mice (k = 8.29) was significantly lower than for normals, as were values for dumbbell-shaped, hypermuscular mice with either targeted deletion of the myostatin gene (Mstn) (k = 8.48) or with skeletal muscle specific expression of a dominant negative myostatin receptor (Acvr2b) (k = 8.80). Hypermuscular and obese mice differ substantially from normals in shape and density, resulting in considerably altered k values. This suggests Meeh constants should be determined empirically for animals of altered body composition. Use of these new, improved Meeh constants will allow greater accuracy in experimental models of burn injury and pharmacokinetics.

  18. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall

    2014-01-01

    Forest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model...

  19. Conductive sapwood area prediction from stem and canopy areas - allometric equations of Kalahari trees, Botswana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lubczynski, M.W.; Chavarro-Rincon, D.C.; Rossiter, David

    2017-01-01

    Conductive sapwood (xylem) area (Ax) of all trees in a given forested area is the main factor contributing to spatial tree transpiration. One hundred ninety-five trees of 9 species in the Kalahari region of Botswana were felled, stained, cut into discs, and measured to develop allometric equations

  20. On the incremental validity of irrational beliefs to predict subjective well-being while controlling for personality factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spörrle, Matthias; Strobel, Maria; Tumasjan, Andranik

    2010-11-01

    This research examines the incremental validity of irrational thinking as conceptualized by Albert Ellis to predict diverse aspects of subjective well-being while controlling for the influence of personality factors. Rational-emotive behavior therapy (REBT) argues that irrational beliefs result in maladaptive emotions leading to reduced well-being. Although there is some early scientific evidence for this relation, it has never been investigated whether this connection would still persist when statistically controlling for the Big Five personality factors, which were consistently found to be important determinants of well-being. Regression analyses revealed significant incremental validity of irrationality over personality factors when predicting life satisfaction, but not when predicting subjective happiness. Results are discussed with respect to conceptual differences between these two aspects of subjective well-being.

  1. Changes in Contact Area in Meniscus Horizontal Cleavage Tears Subjected to Repair and Resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beamer, Brandon S; Walley, Kempland C; Okajima, Stephen; Manoukian, Ohan S; Perez-Viloria, Miguel; DeAngelis, Joseph P; Ramappa, Arun J; Nazarian, Ara

    2017-03-01

    To assess the changes in tibiofemoral contact pressure and contact area in human knees with a horizontal cleavage tear before and after treatment. Ten human cadaveric knees were tested. Pressure sensors were placed under the medial meniscus and the knees were loaded at twice the body weight for 20 cycles at 0°, 10°, and 20° of flexion. Contact area and pressure were recorded for the intact meniscus, the meniscus with a horizontal cleavage tear, after meniscal repair, after partial meniscectomy (single leaflet), and after subtotal meniscectomy (double leaflet). The presence of a horizontal cleavage tear significantly increased average peak contact pressure and reduced effective average tibiofemoral contact area at all flexion angles tested compared with the intact state (P contact pressure after creation of the horizontal cleavage tear. Repairing the horizontal cleavage tear restored peak contact pressures and areas to within 15% of baseline, statistically similar to the intact state at all angles tested (P contact pressure and reduced average contact area at all degrees of flexion compared with the intact state (P contact area and a significant elevation in contact pressure. These changes may accelerate joint degeneration. A suture-based repair of these horizontal cleavage tears returns the contact area and contact pressure to nearly normal, whereas both partial and subtotal meniscectomy lead to significant reductions in contact area and significant elevations in contact pressure within the knee. Repairing horizontal cleavage tears may lead to improved clinical outcomes by preserving meniscal tissue and the meniscal function. Understanding contact area and peak contact pressure resulting from differing strategies for treating horizontal cleavage tears will allow the surgeon to evaluate the best strategy for treating his or her patients who present with this meniscal pathology. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier

  2. A Study of the Stability of School Effectiveness Measures across Grades and Subject Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandeville, Garrett K.; Anderson, Lorin W.

    School effectiveness indices (SEIs), based on regressing test performance onto earlier test performance and a socioeconomic status measure, were obtained for eight subject-grade combinations from 485 South Carolina elementary schools. The analysis involved school means based on longitudinally matched student data. Reading and mathematics…

  3. Getting off on the right foot: subjective value versus economic value in predicting longitudinal job outcomes from job offer negotiations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curhan, Jared R; Elfenbein, Hillary Anger; Kilduff, Gavin J

    2009-03-01

    Although negotiation experiences can affect a negotiator's ensuing attitudes and behavior, little is known about their long-term consequences. Using a longitudinal survey design, the authors tested the degree to which economic and subjective value achieved in job offer negotiations predicts employees' subsequent job attitudes and intentions concerning turnover. Results indicate that subjective value predicts greater compensation satisfaction and job satisfaction and lower turnover intention measured 1 year later. Surprisingly, the economic outcomes that negotiators achieved had no apparent effects on these factors. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. Predictive Factors for Subjective Improvement in Lumbar Spinal Stenosis Patients with Nonsurgical Treatment: A 3-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Matsudaira

    Full Text Available To assess the predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment in consecutive patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS.Patients with LSS were enrolled from 17 medical centres in Japan. We followed up 274 patients (151 men; mean age, 71 ± 7.4 years for 3 years. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess the predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment.In 30% of patients, conservative treatment led to a subjective improvement in the symptoms; in 70% of patients, the symptoms remained unchanged, worsened, or required surgical treatment. The multivariable analysis of predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment showed that the absence of cauda equina symptoms (only radicular symptoms had an odds ratio (OR of 3.31 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-7.31; absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis had an OR of 2.53 (95% CI: 1.13-5.65; <1-year duration of illness had an OR of 3.81 (95% CI: 1.46-9.98; and hypertension had an OR of 2.09 (95% CI: 0.92-4.78.The predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment in LSS patients were the presence of only radicular symptoms, absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis, and an illness duration of <1 year.

  5. 75 FR 26967 - Guidance for Industry: Use of Water by Food Manufacturers in Areas Subject to a Boil-Water...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-13

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2010-D-0236] Guidance for Industry: Use of Water by Food Manufacturers in Areas Subject to a Boil-Water Advisory; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Food and Drug...

  6. Economics of Scholarly Publishing: Exploring the Causes of Subscription Price Variations of Scholarly Journals in Business Subject-Specific Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Lewis G.

    2011-01-01

    This empirical research investigates subscription price variations of scholarly journals in five business subject-specific areas using the semilogarithmic regression model. It has two main purposes. The first is to address the unsettled debate over whether or not and to what extent commercial publishers reap monopoly profits by overcharging…

  7. Problem Solving and Creativity and Design: What Influence Do They Have on Girls' Interest in STEM Subject Areas?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Robyn; Heaverlo, Carol

    2013-01-01

    For girls there is a distinct loss in interest, lack of confidence, and decline in positive attitudes toward STEM subject areas that begins early on in their academic experience and increases with age. According to the National Academy of Engineering, students need to begin associating the possibilities in STEM fields with the need for creativity…

  8. Aging of Holocaust Survivors: Discrepancies Between Subjective and General Health in the greater Tel Aviv Area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohana, Irit; Golander, Hava; Barak, Yoram

    2018-04-01

    Aging has been associated with perceived lowering of health, especially in post-traumatic individuals. The effects may be more complex or even different for Holocaust survivors as they age due to their inherited resilience and life perspective. A cross-sectional study was conducted of Holocaust survivors and a matched comparison group recruited from the general Israeli population. All participants underwent a personal interview and completed the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale and a survey of subjective Likert-scale questions about perceived health. The study comprised 214 older adults: 107 Holocaust survivors and 107 comparison participants; 101 women and 113 men. The mean age for the participants was 80.7 ± 4.7 years (range 68-93). Holocaust survivors did not differ from comparison subjects in general health measures (mean 51.50 ± 3.06 vs. 52.27 ± 3.24, respectively). However, the Holocaust survivors' subjective health was significantly lower, F (2,211) = 4.18, P Holocaust survivors to achieve successful aging.

  9. Cross-Modal Recruitment of Auditory and Orofacial Areas During Sign Language in a Deaf Subject.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martino, Juan; Velasquez, Carlos; Vázquez-Bourgon, Javier; de Lucas, Enrique Marco; Gomez, Elsa

    2017-09-01

    Modern sign languages used by deaf people are fully expressive, natural human languages that are perceived visually and produced manually. The literature contains little data concerning human brain organization in conditions of deficient sensory information such as deafness. A deaf-mute patient underwent surgery of a left temporoinsular low-grade glioma. The patient underwent awake surgery with intraoperative electrical stimulation mapping, allowing direct study of the cortical and subcortical organization of sign language. We found a similar distribution of language sites to what has been reported in mapping studies of patients with oral language, including 1) speech perception areas inducing anomias and alexias close to the auditory cortex (at the posterior portion of the superior temporal gyrus and supramarginal gyrus); 2) speech production areas inducing speech arrest (anarthria) at the ventral premotor cortex, close to the lip motor area and away from the hand motor area; and 3) subcortical stimulation-induced semantic paraphasias at the inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus at the temporal isthmus. The intraoperative setup for sign language mapping with intraoperative electrical stimulation in deaf-mute patients is similar to the setup described in patients with oral language. To elucidate the type of language errors, a sign language interpreter in close interaction with the neuropsychologist is necessary. Sign language is perceived visually and produced manually; however, this case revealed a cross-modal recruitment of auditory and orofacial motor areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Cervical gland area as an ultrasound marker for prediction of preterm delivery: A cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vajiheh Marsoosi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Preterm labor is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality and it might be predicted by assessing the cervical change. Objective: To assess the association between absence of cervical gland area (CGA and spontaneous preterm labor (SPTL. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was performed on 200 singleton pregnant women with a history of SPTL, second-trimester abortion in the previous pregnancy or lower abdominal pain in current pregnancy. Each patient underwent one transvaginal ultrasound examination between 14-28 wk of gestation. Cervical length was measured and CGA was identified and their relationship with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation was evaluated using STATA software version 10. Results: The mean of cervical length was 36.5 mm (SD=8.4, the shortest measurement was 9 mm, and the longest one was 61 mm. Short cervical length (≤18mm was significantly associated with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation. Cervical gland area (the hypoechogenic or echogenic area around the cervical canal was present in 189 (94.5% patients. Absent of CGA had a significant relationship with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation (p=0.01 and p<0.001, respectively. Cervical length was shorter in women with absent CGA in comparison with subjects with present CGA: 37±10 mm in CGA present group and 23±9 mm in CGA absent group (p<0.001. Conclusion: Our study showed that cervical gland area might be an important predictor of SPTL which should be confirmed with further researches.

  11. High Triglycerides Predicts Arteriogenic Erectile Dysfunction and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Subjects With Sexual Dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corona, Giovanni; Cipriani, Sarah; Rastrelli, Giulia; Sforza, Alessandra; Mannucci, Edoardo; Maggi, Mario

    2016-09-01

    The atherogenic role of triglycerides (TG) remains controversial. The aim of the present study is to analyze the contribution of TG in the pathogenesis of erectile dysfunction (ED) and to verify the value of elevated TG in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). An unselected series of 3,990 men attending our outpatient clinic for sexual dysfunction was retrospectively studied. A subset of this sample (n = 1,687) was enrolled in a longitudinal study. Several clinical, biochemical, and instrumental (penile color Doppler ultrasound; PCDU) factors were evaluated. Among the patients studied, after adjustment for confounders, higher TG levels were associated with arteriogenic ED and a higher risk of clinical and biochemical hypogonadism. Conversely, no association between TG and other sexual dysfunctions was observed. When pathological PCDU parameters-including flaccid acceleration (<1.17 m/sec(2)) or dynamic peak systolic velocity (PSV <35 cm/sec)-were considered, the negative association between impaired penile flow and higher TG levels was confirmed, even when subjects taking lipid-lowering drugs or those with diabetes were excluded from the analysis (OR = 6.343 [1.243;32.362], P = .026 and 3.576 [1.104;11.578]; P = .34 for impaired acceleration and PSV, respectively). Similarly, when the same adjusted models were applied, TG levels were associated with a higher risk of hypogonadism, independently of the definition criteria (OR = 2.892 [1.643;5.410], P < .0001 and 4.853 [1.965;11.990]; P = .001 for total T <12 and 8 nM, respectively). In the longitudinal study, after adjusting for confounders, elevated TG levels (upper quartile: 162-1686 mg/dL) were independently associated with a higher incidence of MACE (HR = 2.469 [1.019;5.981]; P = .045), when compared to the rest of the sample. Our data suggest an association between elevated TG and arteriogenic ED and its cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification. Whether the use of TG lowering drugs

  12. Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-01-01

    Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied

  13. Structural health monitoring in end-of-life prediction for steel bridges subjected to fatigue cracking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, T.; Courage, W.M.G.; Maljaars, J.; Meerveld, H. van; Paulissen, J.H.; Pijpers, R.J.M.; Slobbe, A.T.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a monitoring and modelling methodology to assess the current and future conditions of steel bridges subjected to fatigue cracking. Steel bridges are subjected to fatigue cracking as a result of fluctuating stresses caused by the crossing of heavy vehicles. Specifically for

  14. Optimal Multitrial Prediction Combination and Subject-Specific Adaptation for Minimal Training Brain Switch Designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spyrou, L.; Blokland, Y.M.; Farquhar, J.D.R.; Bruhn, J.

    2016-01-01

    Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) systems are traditionally designed by taking into account user-specific data to enable practical use. More recently, subject independent (SI) classification algorithms have been developed which bypass the subject specific adaptation and enable rapid use of the system.

  15. Optimal multitrial prediction combination and subject-specific adaptation for minimal training brain switch designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spyrou, L.; Blokland, Y.M.; Farquhar, J.D.R.; Bruhn, J.

    2016-01-01

    Brain-Computer Interface systems are traditionally designed by taking into account user-specific data to enable practical use. More recently, subject independent (SI) classification algorithms have been developed which bypass the subject specific adaptation and enable rapid use of the system. A

  16. MEG reveals a fast pathway from somatosensory cortex to occipital areas via posterior parietal cortex in a blind subject

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas A Ioannides

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Cross-modal activity in visual cortex of blind subjects has been reported during performance of variety of non-visual tasks. A key unanswered question is through which pathways non-visual inputs are funneled to the visual cortex. Here we used tomographic analysis of single trial magnetoencephalography (MEG data recorded from one congenitally blind and two sighted subjects after stimulation of the left and right median nerves at three intensities: below sensory threshold, above sensory threshold and above motor threshold; the last sufficient to produce thumb twitching. We identified reproducible brain responses in the primary somatosensory (S1 and motor (M1 cortices at around 20 ms post-stimulus, which were very similar in sighted and blind subjects. Time-frequency analysis revealed strong 45 to 70 Hz activity at latencies of 20 to 50 ms in S1 and M1, and posterior parietal cortex Brodmann areas (BA 7 and 40, which compared to lower frequencies, were substantially more pronounced in the blind than the sighted subjects. Critically, at frequencies from α-band up to 100 Hz we found clear, strong and widespread responses in the visual cortex of the blind subject, which increased with the intensity of the somatosensory stimuli. Time-delayed mutual information (MI revealed that in blind subject the stimulus information is funneled from the early somatosensory to visual cortex through posterior parietal BA 7 and 40, projecting first to visual areas V5 and V3, and eventually V1. The flow of information through this pathway occured in stages characterized by convergence of activations into specific cortical regions. In sighted subjects, no linked activity was found that led from the somatosensory to the visual cortex through any of the studied brain regions. These results provide the first evidence from MEG that in blind subjects, tactile information is routed from primary somatosensory to occipital cortex via the posterior parietal cortex.

  17. MEG reveals a fast pathway from somatosensory cortex to occipital areas via posterior parietal cortex in a blind subject.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioannides, Andreas A; Liu, Lichan; Poghosyan, Vahe; Saridis, George A; Gjedde, Albert; Ptito, Maurice; Kupers, Ron

    2013-01-01

    Cross-modal activity in visual cortex of blind subjects has been reported during performance of variety of non-visual tasks. A key unanswered question is through which pathways non-visual inputs are funneled to the visual cortex. Here we used tomographic analysis of single trial magnetoencephalography (MEG) data recorded from one congenitally blind and two sighted subjects after stimulation of the left and right median nerves at three intensities: below sensory threshold, above sensory threshold and above motor threshold; the last sufficient to produce thumb twitching. We identified reproducible brain responses in the primary somatosensory (S1) and motor (M1) cortices at around 20 ms post-stimulus, which were very similar in sighted and blind subjects. Time-frequency analysis revealed strong 45-70 Hz activity at latencies of 20-50 ms in S1 and M1, and posterior parietal cortex Brodmann areas (BA) 7 and 40, which compared to lower frequencies, were substantially more pronounced in the blind than the sighted subjects. Critically, at frequencies from α-band up to 100 Hz we found clear, strong, and widespread responses in the visual cortex of the blind subject, which increased with the intensity of the somatosensory stimuli. Time-delayed mutual information (MI) revealed that in blind subject the stimulus information is funneled from the early somatosensory to visual cortex through posterior parietal BA 7 and 40, projecting first to visual areas V5 and V3, and eventually V1. The flow of information through this pathway occurred in stages characterized by convergence of activations into specific cortical regions. In sighted subjects, no linked activity was found that led from the somatosensory to the visual cortex through any of the studied brain regions. These results provide the first evidence from MEG that in blind subjects, tactile information is routed from primary somatosensory to occipital cortex via the posterior parietal cortex.

  18. Magneto encephalography (MEG: perspectives of speech areas functional mapping in human subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Butorina A. V.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available One of the main problems in clinical practice and academic research is how to localize speech zones in the human brain. Two speech areas (Broca and Wernicke areas that are responsible for language production and for understanding of written and spoken language have been known since the past century. Their location and even hemispheric lateralization have a substantial inter-individual variability, especially in neurosurgery patients. Wada test is one of the most frequently used invasive methodology for speech hemispheric lateralization in neurosurgery patients. However, besides relatively high-risk of Wada test for patient's health, it has its own limitation, e. g. low reliability of Wada-based evidence of verbal memory brain lateralization. Therefore, there is an urgent need for non-invasive, reliable methods of speech zones mapping.The current review summarizes the recent experimental evidence from magnitoencephalographic (MEG research suggesting that speech areas are included in the speech processing within the first 200 ms after the word onset. The electro-magnetic response to deviant word, mismatch negativity wave with latency of 100—200 ms, can be recorded from auditory cortex within the oddball-paradigm. We provide the arguments that basic features of this brain response, such as its automatic, pre-attentive nature, high signal to noise ratio, source localization at superior temporal sulcus, make it a promising vehicle for non-invasive MEG-based speech areas mapping in neurosurgery.

  19. Predicting the onset of major depression in subjects with subthreshold depression in primary care: A prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuijpers, P.; Smit, H.F.E.; Willemse, G.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: That subjects with subthreshold depression have an increased probability of developing major depression has been confirmed by many studies. However, the factors which may predict the onset of major depression have yet to be fully examined. Method: We examined the control group of a

  20. The Role of Senior University Students' Career Adaptability in Predicting Their Subjective Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirdök, Oguzhan; Bölükbasi, Ayten

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study is to examine whether career adaptability and career adaptability subscales of senior undergraduates could predict subjective well-being. The research was a descriptive correlational study which was conducted on 310 senior students (173 women, 137 men) in a state-funded university on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey and…

  1. Performance of Hippocampus Volumetry with FSL-FIRST for Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease Dementia in at Risk Subjects with Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suppa, Per; Hampel, Harald; Kepp, Timo; Lange, Catharina; Spies, Lothar; Fiebach, Jochen B; Dubois, Bruno; Buchert, Ralph

    2016-01-01

    MRI-based hippocampus volume, a core feasible biomarker of Alzheimer's disease (AD), is not yet widely used in clinical patient care, partly due to lack of validation of software tools for hippocampal volumetry that are compatible with routine workflow. Here, we evaluate fully-automated and computationally efficient hippocampal volumetry with FSL-FIRST for prediction of AD dementia (ADD) in subjects with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) from phase 1 of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of FSL-FIRST hippocampal volume (corrected for head size and age) revealed an area under the curve of 0.79, 0.70, and 0.70 for prediction of aMCI-to-ADD conversion within 12, 24, or 36 months, respectively. Thus, FSL-FIRST provides about the same power for prediction of progression to ADD in aMCI as other volumetry methods.

  2. The Prevalence of Mathematical Anxiety in a Business School: A Comparative Study Across Subject Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Howard, A; Warwick, J

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical anxiety is a phenomenon linked to poor attainment in mathematics and restricted development of mathematical skills among those who are afflicted by it. Unfortunately most undergraduate courses in business related areas require the further study of mathematics to enable effective business decision making and students who suffer from mathematical anxiety are placed at risk of underperformance or failure in such quantitative modules. This paper summarizes the results of ...

  3. Metabolomics biomarkers to predict acamprosate treatment response in alcohol-dependent subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, David J; Vázquez, Marely Santiago; Geske, Jennifer R; Hitschfeld, Mario J; Ho, Ada M C; Karpyak, Victor M; Biernacka, Joanna M; Choi, Doo-Sup

    2017-05-31

    Precision medicine for alcohol use disorder (AUD) allows optimal treatment of the right patient with the right drug at the right time. Here, we generated multivariable models incorporating clinical information and serum metabolite levels to predict acamprosate treatment response. The sample of 120 patients was randomly split into a training set (n = 80) and test set (n = 40) five independent times. Treatment response was defined as complete abstinence (no alcohol consumption during 3 months of acamprosate treatment) while nonresponse was defined as any alcohol consumption during this period. In each of the five training sets, we built a predictive model using a least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) penalized selection method and then evaluated the predictive performance of each model in the corresponding test set. The models predicted acamprosate treatment response with a mean sensitivity and specificity in the test sets of 0.83 and 0.31, respectively, suggesting our model performed well at predicting responders, but not non-responders (i.e. many non-responders were predicted to respond). Studies with larger sample sizes and additional biomarkers will expand the clinical utility of predictive algorithms for pharmaceutical response in AUD.

  4. NOAA ESRI Grid - sediment size predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  5. NOAA ESRI Grid - depth predictions bathymetry model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  6. NOAA ESRI Shapefile - sediment composition class predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment composition class predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The...

  7. Subjective discount rates in the general population and their predictive power for energy saving behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruderer Enzler, Heidi; Diekmann, Andreas; Meyer, Reto

    2014-01-01

    Why do people sometimes refrain from saving energy even if it would pay off in monetary terms? Subjective discount rates present one possible explanation for this lack of foresight, but little is known about their level and reliability in the general population. With regard to behavior, persons with lower discount rates are expected to accept additional costs upfront more readily than those with higher discount rates. Based on a representative nation-wide study, the Swiss Environmental Survey 2007, and a follow-up survey, our analyses reveal that on average subjective discount rates are well above market interest rates and moderately stable over a time interval of four years. Income and education are negatively correlated with discount rates. Contrary to expectations, we did not find convincing support for an impact of discount rates on energy saving behavior. - Highlights: • Results of a large panel study in Switzerland. • Mean subjective discount rates in population are well above market interest rates. • Subjective discount rates are moderately stable over four years. • Theory suggests impact of subjective discount rates on energy saving behavior. • However, subjective discount rates do not contribute to explanation of energy saving behavior

  8. Opposing Subjective Temporal Experiences in Response to Unpredictable and Predictable Fear-Relevant Stimuli

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Cui

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have found that the durations of fear-relevant stimuli were overestimated compared to those of neutral stimuli, even when the fear-relevant stimuli were only anticipated. The current study aimed to investigate the effect of the predictability of fear-relevant stimuli on sub-second temporal estimations. In Experiments 1a and 1b, a randomized design was employed to render the emotional valence of each trial unpredictable. In Experiments 2a and 2b, we incorporated a block design and a cueing paradigm, respectively, to render the emotional stimuli predictable. Compared with the neutral condition, the estimated blank interval was judged as being shorter under the unpredictable fear-relevant condition, while it was judged as being longer under the predictable fear-relevant condition. In other words, the unpredictable and predictable fear-relevant stimuli led to opposing temporal distortions. These results demonstrated that emotions modulate interval perception during different time processing stages.

  9. Subjective fear, interference by threat, and fear associations independently predict fear-related behavior in children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein, A.M.; Kleinherenbrink, A.V.; Simons, C.; de Gier, E.; Klein, S.; Allart, E.; Bögels, S.M.; Becker, E.S.; Rinck, M.

    2012-01-01

    Background and objectives: Several information-processing models highlight the independent roles of controlled and automatic processes in explaining fearful behavior. Therefore, we investigated whether direct measures of controlled processes and indirect measures of automatic processes predict

  10. Response prediction of long flexible risers subject to forced harmonic vibration

    OpenAIRE

    Riveros, Carlos Alberto; Utsunomiya, Tomoaki; Maeda, Katsuya; Itoh, Kazuaki

    2010-01-01

    Several research efforts have been directed toward the development of models for response prediction of flexible risers. The main difficulties arise from the fact that the dynamic response of flexible risers involves highly nonlinear behavior and a self-regulated process. This article presents a quasi-steady approach for response prediction of oscillating flexible risers. Amplitude-dependent lift coefficients are considered, as is an increased mean drag coefficient model during synchronizatio...

  11. CO2 sequestration in two mediterranean dune areas subjected to a different level of anthropogenic disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonito, Andrea; Ricotta, Carlo; Iberite, Mauro; Gratani, Loretta; Varone, Laura

    2017-09-01

    Coastal sand dunes are among the most threatened habitats, especially in the Mediterranean Basin, where the high levels of human pressure impair the presence of plant species, putting at risk the maintenance of the ecosystem services, such as CO2 sequestration provided by these habitats. The aim of this study was to analyze how disturbance-induced changes in plant species abundance patterns account for variations in annual CO2 sequestration flow (CS) of Mediterranean sand dune areas. Two sites characterized by a high (site HAD) and a lower (site LAD) anthropogenic disturbance level were selected. At both sites, plant species number, cover, height and CS based on net photosynthesis measurements were sampled. At the plant species level, our results highlighted that Ammophila arenaria and Pancratium maritimum, had a key role in CS. Moreover, the results revealed a patchy species assemblage in both sites. In particular, HAD was characterized by a higher extension of the anthropogenic aphytoic zone (64% of the total transect length) than LAD. In spite of the observed differences in plant species composition, there were not significant differences between HAD and LAD in structural and functional traits, such as plant height and net photosynthesis. As a consequence, HAD and LAD had a similar CS (443 and 421 Mg CO2 ha-1 y-1, respectively). From a monetary point of view, our estimates based on the social costs of carbon revealed that the flow of sequestered CO2 valued on an average 3181 ± 114 ha-1 year-1 (mean value for the two sites). However, considering also the value of the CO2 negative flow related to loss of vegetated area, the annual net benefit arising from CO2 sequestration amounted to 1641 and 1772 for HAD and LAD, respectively. Overall, the results highlighted the importance to maximize the efforts to preserve dune habitats by applying an effective management policy, which could allow maintaining also a regulatory ecosystem service such as CO2 sequestration.

  12. Influence of Subjectivity in Geological Mapping on the Net Penetration Rate Prediction for a Hard Rock TBM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Yongbeom; Macias, Francisco Javier; Jakobsen, Pål Drevland; Bruland, Amund

    2018-05-01

    The net penetration rate of hard rock tunnel boring machines (TBM) is influenced by rock mass degree of fracturing. This influence is taken into account in the NTNU prediction model by the rock mass fracturing factor ( k s). k s is evaluated by geological mapping, the measurement of the orientation of fractures and the spacing of fractures and fracture type. Geological mapping is a subjective procedure. Mapping results can therefore contain considerable uncertainty. The mapping data of a tunnel mapped by three researchers were compared, and the influence of the variation in geological mapping was estimated to assess the influence of subjectivity in geological mapping. This study compares predicted net penetration rates and actual net penetration rates for TBM tunneling (from field data) and suggests mapping methods that can reduce the error related to subjectivity. The main findings of this paper are as follows: (1) variation of mapping data between individuals; (2) effect of observed variation on uncertainty in predicted net penetration rates; (3) influence of mapping methods on the difference between predicted and actual net penetration rate.

  13. Predicting subjective vitality and performance in sports: the role of passion and achievement goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chiung-Huang

    2010-06-01

    The major purpose of this study was to test the hypothesized paths from dualistic passions through achievement goals to subjective vitality and performance in sports. 645 high school athletes participated. The proposed structural equation model, with relationships between dualistic passions and subjective vitality and sports performance mediated by achievement goals, fit the data well, especially for mastery-approach and performance-approach goals. Harmonious and obsessive passions may lead athletes to high performance via the adoption of mastery-approach goals. However, these passions seem to have two paths influencing personal functioning: direct effects make players feel energetic, and indirect effects on subjective vitality through adoption of mastery-approach and performance-approach goals.

  14. Genetic structure and genetic diversity of Swietenia macrophylla in areas subjected to selective logging in Quintana Roo, Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Alcalá, Raúl Ernesto; Cruz, Silvia De la; Gutiérrez-Granados, Gabriel

    2015-01-01

    The hypothesis that selective logging has a negative effect by altering the genetic parameters of tropical tree species was evaluated. The genetic diversity and genetic structure between adult trees (N = 47) and saplings (N = 50) of Swietenia macrophylla were contrasted within an area subjected to selective logging in the Mayan zone. Although differences in the number of alleles and in their frequencies were detected between both groups, the observed and expected heterozygosity and the coeffi...

  15. Facebook Use Predicts Declines in Subjective Well-Being in Young Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Kross, Ethan; Verduyn, Philippe; Demiralp, Emre; Park, Jiyoung; Lee, David Seungjae; Lin, Natalie; Shablack, Holly; Jonides, John; Ybarra, Oscar

    2013-01-01

    Over 500 million people interact daily with Facebook. Yet, whether Facebook use influences subjective well-being over time is unknown. We addressed this issue using experience-sampling, the most reliable method for measuring in-vivo behavior and psychological experience. We text-messaged people five times per day for two-weeks to examine how Facebook use influences the two components of subjective well-being: how people feel moment-to-moment and how satisfied they are with their lives. Our re...

  16. A predictive approach to selecting the size of a clinical trial, based on subjective clinical opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiegelhalter, D J; Freedman, L S

    1986-01-01

    The 'textbook' approach to determining sample size in a clinical trial has some fundamental weaknesses which we discuss. We describe a new predictive method which takes account of prior clinical opinion about the treatment difference. The method adopts the point of clinical equivalence (determined by interviewing the clinical participants) as the null hypothesis. Decision rules at the end of the study are based on whether the interval estimate of the treatment difference (classical or Bayesian) includes the null hypothesis. The prior distribution is used to predict the probabilities of making the decisions to use one or other treatment or to reserve final judgement. It is recommended that sample size be chosen to control the predicted probability of the last of these decisions. An example is given from a multi-centre trial of superficial bladder cancer.

  17. The ability of an electrocardiogram to predict fatal and non-fatal cardiac events in asymptomatic middle-aged subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terho, Henri K; Tikkanen, Jani T; Kenttä, Tuomas V; Junttila, M Juhani; Aro, Aapo L; Anttonen, Olli; Kerola, Tuomas; Rissanen, Harri A; Knekt, Paul; Reunanen, Antti; Huikuri, Heikki V

    2016-11-01

    The long-term prognostic value of a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) for predicting cardiac events in apparently healthy middle-aged subjects is not well defined. A total of 9511 middle-aged subjects (mean age 43 ± 8.2 years, 52% males) without a known cardiac disease and with a follow-up 40 years were included in the study. Fatal and non-fatal cardiac events were collected from the national registries. The predictive value of ECG was separately analyzed for 10 and 30 years. Major ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota code. Subjects with major ECG abnormalities (N = 1131) had an increased risk of cardiac death after 10-years (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.7; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.1-2.5, p = 0.009) and 30-years of follow-up (HR 1.3, 95% CI, 1.1-1.5, p electrocardiogram are shown to have prognostic significance for cardiac events in elderly subjects without known cardiac disease. Our results suggest that ECG abnormalities increase the risk of fatal cardiac events also in middle-aged healthy subjects.

  18. The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

    2017-03-01

    Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

    2018-02-15

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

  20. Using Tree Detection Algorithms to Predict Stand Sapwood Area, Basal Area and Stocking Density in Eucalyptus regnans Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Jaskierniak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Managers of forested water supply catchments require efficient and accurate methods to quantify changes in forest water use due to changes in forest structure and density after disturbance. Using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR data with as few as 0.9 pulses m−2, we applied a local maximum filtering (LMF method and normalised cut (NCut algorithm to predict stocking density (SDen of a 69-year-old Eucalyptus regnans forest comprising 251 plots with resolution of the order of 0.04 ha. Using the NCut method we predicted basal area (BAHa per hectare and sapwood area (SAHa per hectare, a well-established proxy for transpiration. Sapwood area was also indirectly estimated with allometric relationships dependent on LiDAR derived SDen and BAHa using a computationally efficient procedure. The individual tree detection (ITD rates for the LMF and NCut methods respectively had 72% and 68% of stems correctly identified, 25% and 20% of stems missed, and 2% and 12% of stems over-segmented. The significantly higher computational requirement of the NCut algorithm makes the LMF method more suitable for predicting SDen across large forested areas. Using NCut derived ITD segments, observed versus predicted stand BAHa had R2 ranging from 0.70 to 0.98 across six catchments, whereas a generalised parsimonious model applied to all sites used the portion of hits greater than 37 m in height (PH37 to explain 68% of BAHa. For extrapolating one ha resolution SAHa estimates across large forested catchments, we found that directly relating SAHa to NCut derived LiDAR indices (R2 = 0.56 was slightly more accurate but computationally more demanding than indirect estimates of SAHa using allometric relationships consisting of BAHa (R2 = 0.50 or a sapwood perimeter index, defined as (BAHaSDen½ (R2 = 0.48.

  1. The Difference in Translaminar Pressure Gradient and Neuroretinal Rim Area in Glaucoma and Healthy Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Siaudvytyte

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To assess differences in translaminar pressure gradient (TPG and neuroretinal rim area (NRA in patients with normal tension glaucoma (NTG, high tension glaucoma (HTG, and healthy controls. Methods. 27 patients with NTG, HTG, and healthy controls were included in the prospective pilot study (each group consisted of 9 patients. Intraocular pressure (IOP, intracranial pressure (ICP, and confocal laser scanning tomography were assessed. TPG was calculated as the difference of IOP minus ICP. ICP was measured using noninvasive two-depth transcranial Doppler device. The level of significance P 0.05. The difference between TPG for healthy (5.4(7.7 mmHg and glaucomatous eyes (NTG 6.3(3.1 mmHg, HTG 15.7(7.7 mmHg was statistically significant (P < 0.001. Higher TPG was correlated with decreased NRA (r = −0.83; P = 0.01 in the NTG group. Conclusion. Translaminar pressure gradient was higher in glaucoma patients. Reduction of NRA was related to higher TPG in NTG patients. Further prospective studies are warranted to investigate the involvement of TPG in glaucoma management.

  2. Real driving at night - Predicting lane departures from physiological and subjective sleepiness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hallvig, D.; Anund, A.; Fors, C.; Kecklund, L.G.; Äkerstedt, T.

    2014-01-01

    Only limited information is available on how driving performance relates to physiological and subjective sleepiness on real roads. This relation was the focus of the present study. 33 volunteers drove for 90 min on a rural road during the afternoon and night in an instrumented car, while

  3. Risk prediction of ventricular arrhythmias and myocardial function in Lamin A/C mutation positive subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasselberg, Nina E; Edvardsen, Thor; Petri, Helle

    2014-01-01

    Mutations in the Lamin A/C gene may cause atrioventricular block, supraventricular arrhythmias, ventricular arrhythmias (VA), and dilated cardiomyopathy. We aimed to explore the predictors and the mechanisms of VA in Lamin A/C mutation-positive subjects.METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 41 Lamin A/C...

  4. Subjective memory complaints in general practice predicts future dementia: a 4-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waldorff, Frans Boch; Vogel, Asmus Mejling; Siersma, Volkert Dirk

    2012-01-01

    Many older patients in general practice have subjective memory complaints (SMC); however, not all share this information with their general practitioner (GP). The association between SMC and future cognitive decline or dementia is not clear, especially in a general practice population. The aim...

  5. Predicting Rapid Relapse Following Treatment for Chemical Dependence: A Matched-Subjects Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svanum, Soren; McAdoo, William George

    1989-01-01

    Persons who underwent residential treatment for chemical dependency were identified as three-month treatment failures (N=52) or successes (N=52). Subjects were matched on Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) scores. Found posttreatment depression, anxiety, and sleep problems strongly related to failure among psychiatric MMPI group;…

  6. Predicting the location of human perirhinal cortex, Brodmann's area 35, from MRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Augustinack, Jean C.; Huber, Kristen E.; Stevens, Allison A.

    2013-01-01

    resolution labels to the surface models to localize area 35 in fourteen cases. We validated the area boundaries determined using histological Nissl staining. To test the accuracy of the probabilistic mapping, we measured the Hausdorff distance between the predicted and true labels and found that the median...

  7. Disorganized Symptoms and Executive Functioning Predict Impaired Social Functioning in Subjects at Risk for Psychosis

    OpenAIRE

    Eslami, Ali; Jahshan, Carol; Cadenhead, Kristin S.

    2011-01-01

    Predictors of social functioning deficits were assessed in 22 individuals “at risk” for psychosis. Disorganized symptoms and executive functioning predicted social functioning at follow-up. Early intervention efforts that focus on social and cognitive skills are indicated in this vulnerable population.

  8. Framingham coronary heart disease risk score can be predicted from structural brain images in elderly subjects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Maryam Rondina

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: Is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: i we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease. ii When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. iii We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed.

  9. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Controlling factors of uranium mineralization and prospect prediction in Qimantage area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Chunling; Zhu Pengfei; Cai Yuqi; Zhang Wenming; Zhao Yong'an; Song Jiye; Zhang Xiaojin

    2011-01-01

    Based on the analysis of regional geology in Qimantage area, the condition for uranium mineralization is summarized in regional geology setting, volcanic, granite and faults. This study shows that this area has favorable prospect for uranium mineralization. The metallogenic model is built up according to the controlling factors over uranium mineralization. Under this model, six potential areas are predicted in MRAS software with mineralization factors of synthetically geological information method. (authors)

  11. Differences in Activation Area Within Brodmann Area 2 Caused by Pressure Stimuli on Fingers and Joints: In Case of Male Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Mi-Hyun; Kim, Hyung-Sik; Baek, Ji-Hye; Lee, Jung-Chul; Park, Sung-Jun; Jeong, Ul-Ho; Gim, Seon-Young; Kim, Sung-Phil; Lim, Dae-Woon; Chung, Soon-Cheol

    2015-09-01

    In this study, a constant pressure stimulus was applied on the 3 joints (first [p1], second [p2], and third [p3] joints) of 4 fingers (index, middle, ring, and little fingers), and the activation areas within Brodmann area 2 (BA 2) were compared for these different fingers and joints by using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Eight healthy male college students (25.4 ± 1.32 years) participated in the study. Each session was composed of 3 blocks, and each block was composed of a Control phase (30 seconds) and a Pressure phase (30 seconds). No pressure stimulus was applied in the Control phase, during which the subjects would simply lay comfortably with their eyes closed. In the Pressure phase, a pressure stimulus was applied onto one of the joints of the selected finger. For each finger and joint, BA 2 areas activated by the pressure stimulus were extracted by the region of interest method. There was a significant difference in the activation areas for the different fingers (P = .042) as well as for the different joints (P = .050). The activation area decreased in the order of the little, index, and middle fingers, as well as in the order of p1, p3, and p2.

  12. Prediction model for carbonation depth of concrete subjected to freezing-thawing cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Qian Hui; Li, Qiang; Guan, Xiao; Xian Zou, Ying

    2018-03-01

    Through the indoor simulation test of the concrete durability under the coupling effect of freezing-thawing and carbonation, the variation regularity of concrete neutralization depth under freezing-thawing and carbonation was obtained. Based on concrete carbonation mechanism, the relationship between the air diffusion coefficient and porosity in concrete was analyzed and the calculation method of porosity in Portland cement concrete and fly ash cement concrete was investigated, considering the influence of the freezing-thawing damage on the concrete diffusion coefficient. Finally, a prediction model of carbonation depth of concrete under freezing-thawing circumstance was established. The results obtained using this prediction model agreed well with the experimental test results, and provided a theoretical reference and basis for the concrete durability analysis under multi-factor environments.

  13. Analytical predictions for the performance of a reinforced concrete containment model subject to overpressurization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weatherby, J.R.; Clauss, D.B.

    1987-01-01

    Under the sponsorship of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Sandia National Laboratories is investigating methods for predicting the structural performance of nuclear reactor containment buildings under hypothesized severe accident conditions. As part of this program, a 1/6th-scale reinforced concrete containment model will be pressurized to failure in early 1987. Data generated by the test will be compared to analytical predictions of the structural response in order to assess the accuracy and reliability of the analytical techniques. As part of the pretest analysis effort, Sandia has conducted a number of analyses of the containment structure using the ABAQUS general purpose finite element code. This paper describes results from a nonlinear axisymmetric shell analysis as well as the material models and failure criteria used in conjunction with the analysis

  14. Magnetic Resonance Volumetry: Prediction of Subjective Memory Complaints and Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Associations with Genetic and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigbjørn Rogne

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Subjective memory complaints (SMC are strong predictors of mild cognitive impairment (MCI and subsequent Alzheimer’s disease. Our aims were to see if fully automated cerebral MR volume measurements could distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls, and if probable parental late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD, apolipoprotein E ε4 genotype, total plasma homocysteine, and cardiovascular risk factors were associated with MR volumetric findings. Methods: 198 stroke-free subjects comprised the control (n = 58, the SMC (n = 25 and the MCI (n = 115 groups. Analysis of covariance and receiver operating characteristic curve was used to see if MR volumetry distinguished subjects with SMC and MCI from controls. Results: Subjects with SMC and MCI had significantly larger lateral ventricles and smaller hippocampal volumes than controls. The area under the curve in subjects with SMC and MCI compared to that of controls was less than 0.68 for all volumes of intracranial structures. There was an interaction between sex and probable parental LOAD for hippocampal volume, with a significant association between probable parental LOAD and hippocampal volume in women. Conclusions: Fully automated MR volumetry can distinguish subjects with SMC and MCI from controls in a general population, but insufficiently to assume a clear clinical role. Research on sporadic LOAD might benefit from a sex-specific search for genetic risk factors.

  15. Risk based service life prediction of underground cast iron pipes subjected to corrosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.Q.; Mahmoodian, M.

    2013-01-01

    Aging and deterioration of underground cast iron pipes is inevitable after their long time in service, with corrosion being the most predominant mechanism for pipe failures. Although considerable research has been undertaken in the past few decades, more is on the effects of corrosion on structural capacity of pipes than that on the prediction of their service life. This paper presents a methodology to quantitatively assess the risk of pipe collapse and predict its remaining service life using a time-dependent reliability theory. The concept of stress intensity in fracture mechanics is employed to establish the failure criterion of pipe collapse. An empirical model is derived for maximum pit growth of corrosion from the available data based on mathematical regressions. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed method. It is found in the paper that the risk of pipe collapse increases with an increase in the diameter of the pipe for both external and internal corrosion. It is also found that the tougher the pipe is, the smaller the risk of its collapse. The paper concludes that a time-dependent reliability method is a very useful tool to predict the risk of pipe collapse and its remaining service life. The proposed method can help the water industry develop rehabilitation or replacement strategy for existing pipe networks with a view for better management of the pipe asset

  16. Predicting forested catchment evapotranspiration and streamflow from stand sapwood area and Aridity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the water balance of ungauged catchments has been the subject of decades of research. An extension of the fundamental problem of estimating the hydrology is then understanding how do changes in catchment attributes affect the water balance component? This is a particular issue in forest hydrology where vegetation exerts such a strong influence on evapotranspiration (ET), and consequent streamflow (Q). Given the primacy of trees in the water balance, and the potential for change to species and density through logging, fire, pests and diseases and drought, methods that directly relate ET/Q to vegetation structure, species, and stand density are very powerful. Plot studies on tree water use routinely use sapwood area (SA) to calculate transpiration and upscale to the stand/catchment scale. Recent work in south eastern Australian forests have found stand-wide SA to be linearly correlated (R2 = 0.89) with long term mean annual loss (P-Q), and hence, long term mean annual catchment streamflow. Robust relationships can be built between basal area (BA), tree density and stand SA. BA and density are common forest inventory measurements. Until now, no research has related the fundamental stand attribute of SA to streamflow. The data sets include catchments that have been thinned and with varying age classes. Thus far these analyses have been for energy limited systems in wetter forest types. SA has proven to be a more robust biometric than leaf area index which varies seasonally. That long term ET/Q is correlated with vegetation conforms to the Budyko framework. Use of a downscaled (20 m) Aridity Index (AI) has shown distinct correlations with stand SA, and therefore T. Structural patterns at a the hillslope scale not only correlate with SA and T, but also with interception (I) and forest floor evaporation (Es). These correlations between AI and I and Es have given R2 > 0.8. The result of these studies suggest an ability to estimate mean annual ET fluxes at sub

  17. Strength Prediction and Failure Modes of Concrete Specimens Subjected to the Split Test

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoang, Linh Cao; Andersen, M.E.; Hansen, N.T.

    2014-01-01

    This paper deals with modelling and test of concrete specimens subjected to the Brazilian split test. Based on the fictitious crack concept, a simple model for the crack propagation process in the splitting plane is developed. From the model, it is possible to determine the distribution of residual...... tensile strength as crack propagation take place. The residual tensile strength is thereafter used in a rigid plastic analysis of the splitting failure. Based on this combined approach, the ultimate load may either be governed by crack propagation or by a plastic failure, which then terminates the crack...

  18. Clarifying the contribution of subjective norm to predicting leisure-time exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okun, Morris A; Karoly, Paul; Lutz, Rafer

    2002-01-01

    To clarify the contribution of subjective norm to exercise intention and behavior by considering the influence of descriptive as well as injunctive social norms related to family and friends. A sample of 530 college students completed a questionnaire that assessed descriptive and injunctive social norms related to family and to friends, perceived behavioral control, attitude, intention, and leisure-time exercise. Friend descriptive social norm was a significant predictor of both intention (pleisure-time exercise (p<.001). Descriptive norms should be incorporated into tests of the theory of planned behavior in the exercise domain.

  19. Arsenic methylation capability and hypertension risk in subjects living in arseniasis-hyperendemic areas in southwestern Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Y.-K.; Tseng, C.-H.; Huang, Y.-L.; Yang, M.-H.; Chen, C.-J.; Hsueh, Y.-M.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE) from drinking water has been shown to be associated with hypertension in a dose-response pattern. This study further explored the association between arsenic methylation capability and hypertension risk among residents of arseniasis-hyperendemic areas in Taiwan considering the effect of CAE and other potential confounders. Method: There were 871 subjects (488 women and 383 men) and among them 372 were diagnosed as having hypertension based on a positive history or measured systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg. Urinary arsenic species were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography-hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry. Primary arsenic methylation index [PMI, defined as monomethylarsonic acid (MMA V ) divided by (As III + As V )] and secondary arsenic methylation index (SMI, defined as dimethylarsinic acid divided by MMA V ) were used as indicators for arsenic methylation capability. Results: The level of urinary arsenic was still significantly correlated with cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE) calculated from a questionnaire interview (p = 0.02) even after the residents stopped drinking the artesian well water for 2-3 decades. Hypertensive subjects had higher percentages of MMA V and lower SMI than subjects without hypertension. However, subjects having CAE > 0 mg/L-year had higher hypertension risk than those who had CAE = 0 mg/L-year disregard a high or low methylation index. Conclusion: Inefficient arsenic methylation ability may be related with hypertension risk

  20. Leaf Area Prediction Using Three Alternative Sampling Methods for Seven Sierra Nevada Conifer Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dryw A. Jones

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of projected tree leaf area using allometric relationships with sapwood cross-sectional area is common in tree- and stand-level production studies. Measuring sapwood is difficult and often requires destructive sampling. This study tested multiple leaf area prediction models across seven diverse conifer species in the Sierra Nevada of California. The best-fit whole tree leaf area prediction model for overall simplicity, accuracy, and utility for all seven species was a nonlinear model with basal area as the primary covariate. A new non-destructive procedure was introduced to extend the branch summation approach to leaf area data collection on trees that cannot be destructively sampled. There were no significant differences between fixed effects assigned to sampling procedures, indicating that data from the tested sampling procedures can be combined for whole tree leaf area modeling purposes. These results indicate that, for the species sampled, accurate leaf area estimates can be obtained through partially-destructive sampling and using common forest inventory data.

  1. From Motion to Emotion: Accelerometer Data Predict Subjective Experience of Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irrgang, Melanie

    2016-01-01

    Music is often discussed to be emotional because it reflects expressive movements in audible form. Thus, a valid approach to measure musical emotion could be to assess movement stimulated by music. In two experiments we evaluated the discriminative power of mobile-device generated acceleration data produced by free movement during music listening for the prediction of ratings on the Geneva Emotion Music Scales (GEMS-9). The quality of prediction for different dimensions of GEMS varied between experiments for tenderness (R12(first experiment) = 0.50, R22(second experiment) = 0.39), nostalgia (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.30), wonder (R12 = 0.25, R22 = 0.34), sadness (R12 = 0.24, R22 = 0.35), peacefulness (R12 = 0.20, R22 = 0.35) and joy (R12 = 0.19, R22 = 0.33) and transcendence (R12 = 0.14, R22 = 0.00). For others like power (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.49) and tension (R12 = 0.28, R22 = 0.27) results could be almost reproduced. Furthermore, we extracted two principle components from GEMS ratings, one representing arousal and the other one valence of the experienced feeling. Both qualities, arousal and valence, could be predicted by acceleration data, indicating, that they provide information on the quantity and quality of experience. On the one hand, these findings show how music-evoked movement patterns relate to music-evoked feelings. On the other hand, they contribute to integrate findings from the field of embodied music cognition into music recommender systems. PMID:27415015

  2. From Motion to Emotion: Accelerometer Data Predict Subjective Experience of Music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irrgang, Melanie; Egermann, Hauke

    2016-01-01

    Music is often discussed to be emotional because it reflects expressive movements in audible form. Thus, a valid approach to measure musical emotion could be to assess movement stimulated by music. In two experiments we evaluated the discriminative power of mobile-device generated acceleration data produced by free movement during music listening for the prediction of ratings on the Geneva Emotion Music Scales (GEMS-9). The quality of prediction for different dimensions of GEMS varied between experiments for tenderness (R12(first experiment) = 0.50, R22(second experiment) = 0.39), nostalgia (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.30), wonder (R12 = 0.25, R22 = 0.34), sadness (R12 = 0.24, R22 = 0.35), peacefulness (R12 = 0.20, R22 = 0.35) and joy (R12 = 0.19, R22 = 0.33) and transcendence (R12 = 0.14, R22 = 0.00). For others like power (R12 = 0.42, R22 = 0.49) and tension (R12 = 0.28, R22 = 0.27) results could be almost reproduced. Furthermore, we extracted two principle components from GEMS ratings, one representing arousal and the other one valence of the experienced feeling. Both qualities, arousal and valence, could be predicted by acceleration data, indicating, that they provide information on the quantity and quality of experience. On the one hand, these findings show how music-evoked movement patterns relate to music-evoked feelings. On the other hand, they contribute to integrate findings from the field of embodied music cognition into music recommender systems.

  3. Comparison of optic area measurement using fundus photography and optical coherence tomography between optic nerve head drusen and control subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Rodríguez, Patricia; Gili, Pablo; Martín-Ríos, María Dolores; Grifol-Clar, Eulalia

    2013-03-01

    To compare optic disc area measurement between optic nerve head drusen (ONHD) and control subjects using fundus photography, time-domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT) and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). We also made a comparison between each of the three techniques. We performed our study on 66 eyes (66 patients) with ONHD and 70 healthy control subjects (70 controls) with colour ocular fundus photography at 20º (Zeiss FF 450 IR plus), TD-OCT (Stratus OCT) with the Fast Optic Disc protocol and SD-OCT (Cirrus OCT) with the Optic Disc Cube 200 × 200 protocol for measurement of the optic disc area. The measurements were made by two observers and in each measurement a correction of the image magnification factor was performed. Measurement comparison using the Student's t-test/Mann-Whitney U test, the intraclass correlation coefficient, Pearson/Spearman rank correlation coefficient and the Bland-Altman plot was performed in the statistical analysis. Mean and standard deviation (SD) of the optic disc area in ONHD and in controls was 2.38 (0.54) mm(2) and 2.54 (0.42) mm(2), respectively with fundus photography; 2.01 (0.56) mm(2) and 1.66 (0.37) mm(2), respectively with TD-OCT, and 2.03 (0.49) mm(2) and 1.75 (0.38) mm(2), respectively with SD-OCT. In ONHD and controls, repeatability of optic disc area measurement was excellent with fundus photography and optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT and SD-OCT), but with a low degree of agreement between both techniques. Optic disc area measurement is smaller in ONHD compared to healthy subjects with fundus photography, unlike time-domain and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in which the reverse is true. Both techniques offer good repeatability, but a low degree of correlation and agreement, which means that optic disc area measurement is not interchangeable or comparable between techniques. Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2013 The College of Optometrists.

  4. Decentralized Model Predictive Control for Cooperative Multiple Vehicles Subject to Communication Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hojjat A. Izadi

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The decentralized model predictive control (DMPC of multiple cooperative vehicles with the possibility of communication loss/delay is investigated. The neighboring vehicles exchange their predicted trajectories at every sample time to maintain the cooperation objectives. In the event of a communication loss (packet dropout, the most recent available information, which is potentially delayed, is used. Then the communication loss problem changes to a cooperative problem when random large communication delays are present. Such large communication delays can lead to poor cooperation performance and unsafe behaviors such as collisions. A new DMPC approach is developed to improve the cooperation performance and achieve safety in the presence of the large communication delays. The proposed DMPC architecture estimates the tail of neighbor's trajectory which is not available due to the large communication delays for improving the performance. The concept of the tube MPC is also employed to provide the safety of the fleet against collisions, in the presence of large intervehicle communication delays. In this approach, a tube shaped trajectory set is assumed around the trajectory of the neighboring vehicles whose trajectory is delayed/lost. The radius of tube is a function of the communication delay and vehicle's maneuverability (in the absence of model uncertainty. The simulation of formation problem of multiple vehicles is employed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  5. Towards Subject-Specific Strength Training Design through Predictive Use of Musculoskeletal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Plüss

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Lower extremity dysfunction is often associated with hip muscle strength deficiencies. Detailed knowledge of the muscle forces generated in the hip under specific external loading conditions enables specific structures to be trained. The aim of this study was to find the most effective movement type and loading direction to enable the training of specific parts of the hip muscles using a standing posture and a pulley system. In a novel approach to release the predictive power of musculoskeletal modelling techniques based on inverse dynamics, flexion/extension and ab-/adduction movements were virtually created. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, three hip orientations and an external loading force that was systematically rotated around the body were simulated using a state-of-the art OpenSim model in order to establish ideal designs for training of the anterior and posterior parts of the M. gluteus medius (GM. The external force direction as well as the hip orientation greatly influenced the muscle forces in the different parts of the GM. No setting was found for simultaneous training of the anterior and posterior parts with a muscle force higher than 50% of the maximum. Importantly, this study has demonstrated the use of musculoskeletal models as an approach to predict muscle force variations for different strength and rehabilitation exercise variations.

  6. TH-CD-207A-07: Prediction of High Dimensional State Subject to Respiratory Motion: A Manifold Learning Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, W; Sawant, A; Ruan, D

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The development of high dimensional imaging systems (e.g. volumetric MRI, CBCT, photogrammetry systems) in image-guided radiotherapy provides important pathways to the ultimate goal of real-time volumetric/surface motion monitoring. This study aims to develop a prediction method for the high dimensional state subject to respiratory motion. Compared to conventional linear dimension reduction based approaches, our method utilizes manifold learning to construct a descriptive feature submanifold, where more efficient and accurate prediction can be performed. Methods: We developed a prediction framework for high-dimensional state subject to respiratory motion. The proposed method performs dimension reduction in a nonlinear setting to permit more descriptive features compared to its linear counterparts (e.g., classic PCA). Specifically, a kernel PCA is used to construct a proper low-dimensional feature manifold, where low-dimensional prediction is performed. A fixed-point iterative pre-image estimation method is applied subsequently to recover the predicted value in the original state space. We evaluated and compared the proposed method with PCA-based method on 200 level-set surfaces reconstructed from surface point clouds captured by the VisionRT system. The prediction accuracy was evaluated with respect to root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) for both 200ms and 600ms lookahead lengths. Results: The proposed method outperformed PCA-based approach with statistically higher prediction accuracy. In one-dimensional feature subspace, our method achieved mean prediction accuracy of 0.86mm and 0.89mm for 200ms and 600ms lookahead lengths respectively, compared to 0.95mm and 1.04mm from PCA-based method. The paired t-tests further demonstrated the statistical significance of the superiority of our method, with p-values of 6.33e-3 and 5.78e-5, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed approach benefits from the descriptiveness of a nonlinear manifold and the prediction

  7. What predicts inattention in adolescents? An experience-sampling study comparing chronotype, subjective, and objective sleep parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, Timo; Krkovic, Katarina; Lincoln, Tania M

    2017-10-01

    Many adolescents sleep insufficiently, which may negatively affect their functioning during the day. To improve sleep interventions, we need a better understanding of the specific sleep-related parameters that predict poor functioning. We investigated to which extent subjective and objective parameters of sleep in the preceding night (state parameters) and the trait variable chronotype predict daytime inattention as an indicator of poor functioning. We conducted an experience-sampling study over one week with 61 adolescents (30 girls, 31 boys; mean age = 15.5 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). Participants rated their inattention two times each day (morning, afternoon) on a smartphone. Subjective sleep parameters (feeling rested, positive affect upon awakening) were assessed each morning on the smartphone. Objective sleep parameters (total sleep time, sleep efficiency, wake after sleep onset) were assessed with a permanently worn actigraph. Chronotype was assessed with a self-rated questionnaire at baseline. We tested the effect of subjective and objective state parameters of sleep on daytime inattention, using multilevel multiple regressions. Then, we tested whether the putative effect of the trait parameter chronotype on inattention is mediated through state sleep parameters, again using multilevel regressions. We found that short sleep time, but no other state sleep parameter, predicted inattention to a small effect. As expected, the trait parameter chronotype also predicted inattention: morningness was associated with less inattention. However, this association was not mediated by state sleep parameters. Our results indicate that short sleep time causes inattention in adolescents. Extended sleep time might thus alleviate inattention to some extent. However, it cannot alleviate the effect of being an 'owl'. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Early visual responses predict conscious face perception within and between subjects during binocular rivalry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandberg, Kristian; Bahrami, Bahador; Kanai, Ryota

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies indicate that conscious face perception may be related to neural activity in a large time window around 170–800 msec after stimulus presentation, yet in the majority of these studies changes in conscious experience are confounded with changes in physical stimulation. Using...... multivariate classification on MEG data recorded when participants reported changes in conscious perception evoked by binocular rivalry between a face and a grating, we showed that only MEG signals in the 120–320 msec time range, peaking at the M170 around 180 msec and the P2m at around 260 msec, reliably...... activity associated with conscious face perception generalized from one participant to another around the times of maximum prediction accuracy. Our work thus demonstrates that the neural correlates of particular conscious contents (here, faces) are highly consistent in time and space within individuals...

  9. Subjective fear, interference by threat, and fear associations independently predict fear-related behavior in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Anke M; Kleinherenbrink, Annelies V; Simons, Carlijn; de Gier, Erwin; Klein, Steven; Allart, Esther; Bögels, Susan M; Becker, Eni S; Rinck, Mike

    2012-09-01

    Several information-processing models highlight the independent roles of controlled and automatic processes in explaining fearful behavior. Therefore, we investigated whether direct measures of controlled processes and indirect measures of automatic processes predict unique variance components of children's spider fear-related behavior. Seventy-seven children between 8 and 13 years performed an Affective Priming Task (APT) measuring associative bias, a pictorial version of the Emotional Stroop Task (EST) measuring attentional bias, filled out the Spider Anxiety and Disgust Screening for Children (SADS-C) in order to assess self-perceived fear, and took part in a Behavioral Assessment Test (BAT) to measure avoidance of spiders. The SADS-C, EST, and APT did not correlate with each other. Spider fear-related behavior was best explained by SADS-C, APT, and EST together; they explained 51% of the variance in BAT behavior. No children with clinical levels of spider phobia were tested. The direct and the different indirect measures did no correlate with each other. These results indicate that both direct and indirect measures are useful for predicting unique variance components of fear-related behavior in children. The lack of relations between direct and indirect measures may explain why some earlier studies did not find stronger color-naming interference or stronger fear associations in children with high levels of self-reported fear. It also suggests that children with high levels of spider-fearful behavior have different fear-related associations and display higher interference by spider stimuli than children with non-fearful behavior. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A Study on Pharmacokinetics of Bosentan with Systems Modeling, Part 2: Prospectively Predicting Systemic and Liver Exposure in Healthy Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rui; Kimoto, Emi; Niosi, Mark; Tess, David A; Lin, Jian; Tremaine, Larry M; Di, Li

    2018-04-01

    Predicting human pharmacokinetics of novel compounds is a critical step in drug discovery and clinical study design but continues to be a challenging task for hepatic transporter substrates, particularly in predicting their liver exposures. In this study, using bosentan as an example, we prospectively predicted systemic exposure and the (pseudo) steady-state unbound liver-to-unbound plasma ratio ( K p uu ) in healthy subjects using 1) a mechanistic approach solely based on in vitro hepatocyte assays and 2) an approach based on hepatic process rates from monkey in vivo data but Michaelis-Menten constants from in vitro data. Both methods reasonably match the observed human systemic time course data, but the second method leads to better prediction accuracy. In addition, the second method can predict a human K p uu value that is close to the value deduced using clinical data. We also generated rat and monkey liver K p uu values in terminal studies. However, these directly measured animal values are different from the deduced human value. Copyright © 2018 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  11. Cortical surface area reduction in identification of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder: A pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hao; Sun, Yawen; Su, Shanshan; Wang, Yao; Qiu, Yongming; Yang, Xi; Zhou, Yan; Xiao, Zeping; Wang, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    Victims of motor vehicle accidents often develop post-traumatic stress disorder, which causes significant social function loss. For the difficulty in treating post-traumatic stress disorder, identification of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder is essential for providing possible intervention. This paper aims to examine the cortical structural traits related to susceptibility to post-traumatic stress disorder. To address this issue, we performed structural magnetic resonance imaging study in motor vehicle accident victims within 48 hours from the accidents. A total of 70 victims, available for both clinical and magnetic resonance imaging data, enrolled in our study. Upon completion of 6-month follow-up, 29 of them developed post-traumatic stress disorder, while 41 of them didn't. At baseline, voxelwise comparisons of cortical thickness, cortical area and cortical volume were conducted between post-traumatic stress disorder group and trauma control group. As expected, several reduced cortical volume within frontal-temporal loop were observed in post-traumatic stress disorder. For cortical thickness, no between-group differences were observed. There were three clusters in left hemisphere and one cluster in right hemisphere showing decreased cortical area in post-traumatic stress disorder patients, compared with trauma controls. Peak voxels of the three clusters in left hemisphere were separately located in superior parietal cortex, insula and rostral anterior cingulate cortex. The finding of reduced surface area of left insula and left rostral anterior cingulate cortex suggests that shrinked surface area in motor vehicle accident victims could act as potential biomarker of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder.

  12. Predicting Traffic Flow in Local Area Networks by the Largest Lyapunov Exponent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of network traffic are complex and nonlinear, and chaotic behaviors and their prediction, which play an important role in local area networks (LANs, are studied in detail, using the largest Lyapunov exponent. With the introduction of phase space reconstruction based on the time sequence, the high-dimensional traffic is projected onto the low dimension reconstructed phase space, and a reduced dynamic system is obtained from the dynamic system viewpoint. Then, a numerical method for computing the largest Lyapunov exponent of the low-dimensional dynamic system is presented. Further, the longest predictable time, which is related to chaotic behaviors in the system, is studied using the largest Lyapunov exponent, and the Wolf method is used to predict the evolution of the traffic in a local area network by both Dot and Interval predictions, and a reliable result is obtained by the presented method. As the conclusion, the results show that the largest Lyapunov exponent can be used to describe the sensitivity of the trajectory in the reconstructed phase space to the initial values. Moreover, Dot Prediction can effectively predict the flow burst. The numerical simulation also shows that the presented method is feasible and efficient for predicting the complex dynamic behaviors in LAN traffic, especially for congestion and attack in networks, which are the main two complex phenomena behaving as chaos in networks.

  13. [Vitamin D deficiency prediction by patient questionnaire and secondary hyperparathyroidism in a cohort of 526 healthy subjects in their fifties].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laroche, Michel; Nigon, Delphine; Gennero, Isabelle; Lassoued, Slim; Pouilles, Jean-Michel; Trémolières, Florence; Vallet, Marion; Tack, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    Can vitamin D deficiency be predicted by patient questionnaire? Does it lead to secondary hyperparathyroidism that may cause excessive bone resorption? We studied non-osteoporotic subjects in their fifties, in whom vitamin D levels are often tested. Patients hospitalised for degenerative osteoarthritis or consulting for assessment of menopause, without renal failure and not treated with vitamin D, completed a questionnaire on sun exposure and underwent measurement of serum calcium, creatinine, 25OH vitamin D, PTH and CTX. Five hundred and twenty-six subjects, mean age 54.6 years (71% women), were investigated throughout the year. 25OH vitamin D levels were correlated with sun exposure and varied according to the month of the year, unlike PTH and CTX levels. From November to May, over 90% of subjects had 25OH vitamin D levelssecondary hyperparathyroidism, characterised by serum calcium65pg/mL, associated with increased CTX levels. Vitamin D deficiency can be predicted by patient questionnaire. It very rarely leads to secondary hyperparathyroidism. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  14. Watershed area ratio accurately predicts daily streamflow in nested catchments in the Catskills, New York

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris C. Gianfagna

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Watershed area ratio was the most important basin parameter for estimating flow at upstream sites based on downstream flow. The area ratio alone explained 93% of the variance in the slopes of relationships between upstream and downstream flows. Regression analysis indicated that flow at any upstream point can be estimated by multiplying the flow at a downstream reference gage by the watershed area ratio. This method accurately predicted upstream flows at area ratios as low as 0.005. We also observed a very strong relationship (R2 = 0.79 between area ratio and flow–flow slopes in non-nested catchments. Our results indicate that a simple flow estimation method based on watershed area ratios is justifiable, and indeed preferred, for the estimation of daily streamflow in ungaged watersheds in the Catskills region.

  15. Habitual sleep durations and subjective sleep quality predict white matter differences in the human brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakh Khalsa

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Self-imposed short sleep durations are increasingly commonplace in society, and have considerable health and performance implications for individuals. Reduced sleep duration over multiple nights has similar behavioural effects to those observed following acute total sleep deprivation, suggesting that lack of sleep affects brain function cumulatively. A link between habitual sleep patterns and functional connectivity has previously been observed, and the effect of sleep duration on the brain's intrinsic functional architecture may provide a link between sleep status and cognition. However, it is currently not known whether differences in habitual sleep patterns across individuals are related to changes in the brain's white matter, which underlies structural connectivity. In the present study we use diffusion–weighted imaging and a group comparison application of tract based spatial statistics (TBSS to investigate changes to fractional anisotropy (FA and mean diffusivity (MD in relation to sleep duration and quality, hypothesising that white matter metrics would be positively associated with sleep duration and quality. Diffusion weighted imaging data was acquired from a final cohort of 33 (23–29 years, 10 female, mean 25.4 years participants. Sleep patterns were assessed for a 14 day period using wrist actigraphs and sleep diaries, and subjective sleep quality with the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI. Median splits based on total sleep time and PSQI were used to create groups of shorter/longer and poorer/better sleepers, whose imaging data was compared using TBSS followed by post-hoc correlation analysis in regions identified as significantly different between the groups. There were significant positive correlations between sleep duration and FA in the left orbito-frontal region and the right superior corona radiata, and significant negative correlations between sleep duration and MD in right orbito-frontal white matter and the right

  16. Assessment of anthropometric parameters including area of the psoas, area of the back muscle, and psoas-vertebra distance as indices for prediction of vertebral fracture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Tamotsu; Morita, Masahumi; Mabuchi, Kiyoshi

    2005-01-01

    We assessed some anthropometric parameters as indices for the prediction of vertebral compression fracture. We measured the area of the total cross section, area of the back muscle, area of the psoas, area of subcutaneous fat tissue, ratio of the right and left area of the psoas, psoas-vertebra distance, the mediolateral length of the back muscle, anteroposterior length of the back muscle, the mediolateral length of the psoas, and anteroposterior length of the psoas, on computed tomography images. Logistic regression analysis was performed in order to test the correlation between each anthropometric parameter and the incidence of fracture. The odds ratio corresponding to one standard deviation of each parameter was calculated. The ratio of center and anterior vertebral heights and the ratio of center and posterior vertebral heights were measured from the positioning image. The smaller value of these was defined as the vertebral height ratio value. Vertebral height ratio was used as the parameter directly related to vertebral fracture. The subjects for research were 25 women with vertebral compression fracture and 36 women without fracture. Vertebral height ratio had a significant correlation with area of the psoas (correlation coefficient, r=0.609 p<0.001), area of the back muscle (r=0.547 p<0.001), and the psoas-vertebra distance (r=-0.523 p<0.001) in the anthropometric parameters. The odds ratios of the area of the psoas (odds ratio, OR:0.18, 95% confidence interval, CI:0.43 to 0.08), area of the back muscle (OR:0.13, 95% CI:0.37 to 0.05), and the psoas-vertebra distance (OR:3.01, 95% CI:6.22 to 1.46) were high. The odds ratio of the mediolateral length of the psoas (OR:0.34, 95% CI:0.67 to 0.18), and the left-to-right area ratio of the psoas (OR:0.41, 95% CI:0.76 to 0.22) were rather high. However, the vertebral height ratio had no significant correlation with the left-to-right area ratio of the psoas. It was considered that area of the psoas, area of the back

  17. Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

    2017-05-01

    To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio 1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time 220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

  18. Comparison between the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory: predicting incontinence prevention behaviour in post-partum women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolman, M; Chase, J

    1996-08-01

    A small-scale study was undertaken to test the relative predictive power of the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory for the uptake of a behaviour (pelvic floor exercises) to reduce post-partum urinary incontinence in primigravida females. A structured questionnaire was used to gather data relevant to both models from a sample antenatal and postnatal primigravida women. Questions examined the perceived probability of becoming incontinent, the perceived (dis)utility of incontinence, the perceived probability of pelvic floor exercises preventing future urinary incontinence, the costs and benefits of performing pelvic floor exercises and sources of information and knowledge about incontinence. Multiple regression analysis focused on whether or not respondents intended to perform pelvic floor exercises and the factors influencing their decisions. Aggregated data were analysed to compare the Health Belief Model and Subjective Expected Utility Theory directly.

  19. Plasma triacylglycerol and coagulation factor concentrations predict the anticoagulant effect of dietary fish oil in overweight subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanschoonbeek, Kristof; Feijge, Marion A H; Saris, Wim H M

    2007-01-01

    fish-oil effects. In study 1, 54 overweight subjects consumed 3.1 g (n-3) PUFA daily. In study 2, which involved 42 overweight patients with type 2 diabetes, 20 subjects consumed (n-3) PUFA, whereas 22 others ingested a preparation rich in (n-6) PUFA. Tissue factor-induced thrombin generation (thrombin...... potential) was determined as an integrated measure of plasma coagulant activity. In both studies, multivariate analysis indicated a strong clustering of fasting concentrations of triacylglycerols, prothrombin, factor V, factor VII, and factor X with one another at baseline. This cluster of factors......-induced lowering of triacylglycerol and coagulation factor V, VII, and X concentrations, and thrombin generation. We conclude that high fasting triacylglycerol concentrations predict high procoagulant activity and a lowering of thrombin potential with dietary fish oil....

  20. Do Electrochemiluminescence Assays Improve Prediction of Time to Type 1 Diabetes in Autoantibody-Positive TrialNet Subjects?

    OpenAIRE

    Fouts, Alexandra; Pyle, Laura; Yu, Liping; Miao, Dongmei; Michels, Aaron; Krischer, Jeffrey; Sosenko, Jay; Gottlieb, Peter; Steck, Andrea K.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To explore whether electrochemiluminescence (ECL) assays can help improve prediction of time to type 1 diabetes in the TrialNet autoantibody-positive population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS TrialNet subjects who were positive for one or more autoantibodies (microinsulin autoantibody, GAD65 autoantibody [GADA], IA-2A, and ZnT8A) with available ECL-insulin autoantibody (IAA) and ECL-GADA data at their initial visit were analyzed; after a median follow-up of 24 months, 177 of these 1,2...

  1. Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading. Volume 2, Part 1; Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentz, Steven J.; Ordway, David O.; Parsons, David S.; Garrison, Craig M.; Rodgers, C. Steven; Collins, Brian W.

    2015-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approximately 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

  2. Transport and solubility of Hetero-disperse dry deposition particulate matter subject to urban source area rainfall-runoff processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, G.; Sansalone, J.

    2010-03-01

    SummaryWith respect to hydrologic processes, the impervious pavement interface significantly alters relationships between rainfall and runoff. Commensurate with alteration of hydrologic processes the pavement also facilitates transport and solubility of dry deposition particulate matter (PM) in runoff. This study examines dry depositional flux rates, granulometric modification by runoff transport, as well as generation of total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity and conductivity in source area runoff resulting from PM solubility. PM is collected from a paved source area transportation corridor (I-10) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana encompassing 17 dry deposition and 8 runoff events. The mass-based granulometric particle size distribution (PSD) is measured and modeled through a cumulative gamma function, while PM surface area distributions across the PSD follow a log-normal distribution. Dry deposition flux rates are modeled as separate first-order exponential functions of previous dry hours (PDH) for PM and suspended, settleable and sediment fractions. When trans-located from dry deposition into runoff, PSDs are modified, with a d50m decreasing from 331 to 14 μm after transport and 60 min of settling. Solubility experiments as a function of pH, contact time and particle size using source area rainfall generate constitutive models to reproduce pH, alkalinity, TDS and alkalinity for historical events. Equilibrium pH, alkalinity and TDS are strongly influenced by particle size and contact times. The constitutive leaching models are combined with measured PSDs from a series of rainfall-runoff events to demonstrate that the model results replicate alkalinity and TDS in runoff from the subject watershed. Results illustrate the granulometry of dry deposition PM, modification of PSDs along the drainage pathway, and the role of PM solubility for generation of TDS, alkalinity and conductivity in urban source area rainfall-runoff.

  3. Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

    2010-01-01

    Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

  4. Amazon forest carbon dynamics predicted by profiles of canopy leaf area and light environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. C. Stark; V. Leitold; J. L. Wu; M. O. Hunter; C. V. de Castilho; F. R. C. Costa; S. M. McMahon; G. G. Parker; M. Takako Shimabukuro; M. A. Lefsky; M. Keller; L. F. Alves; J. Schietti; Y. E. Shimabukuro; D. O. Brandao; T. K. Woodcock; N. Higuchi; P. B de Camargo; R. C. de Oliveira; S. R. Saleska

    2012-01-01

    Tropical forest structural variation across heterogeneous landscapes may control above-ground carbon dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that canopy structure (leaf area and light availability) – remotely estimated from LiDAR – control variation in above-ground coarse wood production (biomass growth). Using a statistical model, these factors predicted biomass growth...

  5. The cutoff values of visceral fat area and waist circumference for identifying subjects at risk for metabolic syndrome in elderly Korean: Ansan Geriatric (AGE cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koh Young

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Korea, the cutoff values of waist circumference (WC for the identification of metabolic syndrome (MetS were suggested to be 90 cm for men and 85 cm for women based on the analysis mainly in middle-aged adults. As aging is associated with increased fat, especially abdominal visceral fat, the cutoff value of WC may differ according to age. In addition, the usefulness of visceral abdominal fat area (VFA to predict MetS in the elderly has not been studied yet. We aimed to suggest WC and VFA criteria and to compare the predictability of WC and VFA to identify people at risk for MetS. Methods A total of 689 elderly subjects aged ≥63 years (308 men, 381 women were chosen in this cross-sectional study from an ongoing, prospective, population-based study, the Ansan Geriatric (AGE cohort study. VFA was measured by single slice abdominal computed tomography scanning. The metabolic risk factors except WC (plasma glucose, blood pressure, serum triglycerides and HDL cholesterol levels were defined using modified NCEP-ATP III criteria. We estimated the accuracy of VFA and WC for identifying at least two of these factors by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve analysis. Results Two hundred three of 308 men and 280 of 381 women had ≥2 metabolic risk factors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC value for VFA to predict the presence of ≥2 metabolic risk factors was not significantly different from that for WC (men, 0.735 and 0.750; women, 0.715 and 0.682; AUC values for VFA and WC, respectively. The optimal cutoff points for VFA and WC for predicting the presence of ≥2 metabolic risk factors were 92.6 cm2 and 86.5 cm for men and 88.9 cm2 and 86.5 cm for women. Conclusion WC had comparable power with VFA to identify elderly people who are at risk for MetS. Elderly Korean men and women had very similar cutoff points for both VFA and WC measurements for estimating the risk of MetS. Age-specific cutoff point for WC might be

  6. Spatial prediction of malaria prevalence in an endemic area of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam Akramul

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health burden in Southeastern Bangladesh, particularly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region. Malaria is endemic in 13 districts of Bangladesh and the highest prevalence occurs in Khagrachari (15.47%. Methods A risk map was developed and geographic risk factors identified using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian geostatistical model was developed from previously identified individual and environmental covariates (p Results Predicted high prevalence areas were located along the north-eastern areas, and central part of the study area. Low to moderate prevalence areas were predicted in the southwestern, southeastern and central regions. Individual age and nearness to fragmented forest were associated with malaria prevalence after adjusting the spatial auto-correlation. Conclusion A Bayesian analytical approach using multiple enabling technologies (geographic information systems, global positioning systems, and remote sensing provide a strategy to characterize spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk at a fine scale. Even in the most hyper endemic region of Bangladesh there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in risk. Areas that are predicted to be at high risk, based on the environment but that have not been reached by surveys are identified.

  7. Predicted tyre-soil interface area and vertical stress distribution based on loading characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjønning, Per; Stettler, M.; Keller, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The upper boundary condition for all models simulating stress patterns throughout the soil profile is the stress distribution at the tyre–soil interface. The so-called FRIDA model (Schjønning et al., 2008. Biosyst. Eng. 99, 119–133) treats the contact area as a superellipse and has been shown...... of the actual to recommended inflation pressure ratio. We found that VT and Kr accounted for nearly all variation in the data with respect to the contact area. The contact area width was accurately described by a combination of tyre width and Kr, while the superellipse squareness parameter, n, diminished...... slightly with increasing Kr. Estimated values of the contact area length related to observed data with a standard deviation of about 0.06 m. A difference between traction and implement tyres called for separate prediction equations, especially for the contact area. The FRIDA parameters α and β, reflecting...

  8. Prediction of periodontopathic bacteria in dental plaque of periodontal healthy subjects by measurement of volatile sulfur compounds in mouth air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishi, Mitsuo; Ohara-Nemoto, Yuko; Takahashi, Masahiro; Kishi, Kayo; Kimura, Shigenobu; Aizawa, Fumie; Yonemitsu, Masami

    2013-03-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether measurements of volatile sulfur compounds (VSCs) are useful to predict colonization of periodontopathic bacteria. For this purpose, we assessed the relationships among distributions of 4 species of periodontopathic bacteria in tongue coating and dental plaque, oral conditions including VSC concentration in mouth air, and smoking habit of periodontal healthy young subjects. The subjects were 108 young adults (mean age, 23.5±2.56 years) without clinical periodontal pockets. Information regarding smoking habit was obtained by interview. After VSC concentration in mouth, air was measured with a portable sulfide monitor (Halimeter(®)), non-stimulated saliva flow and dental caries status were assessed, and tongue coating and dental plaque samples were collected from the subjects. The tongue coating samples were weighed to determine the amount. The colonization of Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythia, Prevotella intermedia, and Treponema denticola in both tongue coating and plaque samples was investigated using species-specific polymerase chain reaction assays. Significant relationships were observed between the colonization of periodontopathic bacteria in tongue coating and plaque samples, especially that of P. gingivalis. VSC concentration showed the most significant association with colonization of P. gingivalis in both tongue coating and dental plaque. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the adjusted partial correlation coefficient [Exp(B)] values for VSC concentration with the colonization of P. gingivalis, P. intermedia, and T. denticola in dental plaque were 135, 35.4 and 10.4, respectively. In addition, smoking habit was also shown to be a significant variable in regression models [Exp(B)=6.19, 8.92 and 2.53, respectively]. Therefore, receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to predict the colonization of periodontal bacteria in dental plaque in the subjects divided by smoking

  9. Urinary arsenic methylation capability and carotid atherosclerosis risk in subjects living in arsenicosis-hyperendemic areas in southwestern Taiwan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Y.-L. [Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Hsueh, Y.-M. [Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: ymhsueh@tmu.edu.tw; Huang, Y.-K. [Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Yip, P.-K. [Department of Neurology, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taiwan (China); Yang, M.-H. [Department of Nuclear Science, National Tsing-Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Chen, C.-J. [Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Graduate Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University Taipei, Taiwan (China)

    2009-04-01

    Long-term exposure to inorganic arsenic from artesian drinking well water is associated with carotid atherosclerosis in the Blackfoot Disease (BFD)-hyperendemic area in Taiwan. The current study examined the arsenic methylation capacity and its risk on carotid atherosclerosis. A total of 304 adults (158 men and 146 women) residing in the BFD-hyperendemic area were included. The extent of carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by duplex ultrasonography. Chronic arsenic exposure was estimated by an index of cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE) and the duration of artesian well water consumption. Urinary levels of inorganic arsenite [As(III)], arsenate [As(V)], monomethylarsonic acid [MMA(V)] and dimethylarsinic acid [DMA(V)] were determined by high performance liquid chromatography linked on-line to a hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry (HPLC-HG-AAS). The percentage of arsenic species, primary methylation index [PMI = MMA(V) / (As(III) + As(V)] and secondary methylation index [SMI = DMA(V) / MMA(V)] were calculated and employed as indicators of arsenic methylation capacity. Results showed that women and younger subjects had a more efficient arsenic methylation capacity than did men and the elderly. Carotid atherosclerosis cases had a significantly greater percentage of MMA(V) [%MMA(V)] and a lower percentage of DMA [%DMA (V)] compared to controls. Subjects in the highest two tertiles of PMI with a median of CAE > 0 mg/L-year had an odds ratio (OR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of carotid atherosclerosis of 2.61 and 0.98-6.90 compared to those in the highest two tertiles of PMI with a CAE = 0 mg/L-year. We conclude that individuals with greater exposure to arsenic and lower capacity to methylate inorganic arsenic may be at a higher risk to carotid atherosclerosis.

  10. Urinary arsenic methylation capability and carotid atherosclerosis risk in subjects living in arsenicosis-hyperendemic areas in southwestern Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Y.-L.; Hsueh, Y.-M.; Huang, Y.-K.; Yip, P.-K.; Yang, M.-H.; Chen, C.-J.

    2009-01-01

    Long-term exposure to inorganic arsenic from artesian drinking well water is associated with carotid atherosclerosis in the Blackfoot Disease (BFD)-hyperendemic area in Taiwan. The current study examined the arsenic methylation capacity and its risk on carotid atherosclerosis. A total of 304 adults (158 men and 146 women) residing in the BFD-hyperendemic area were included. The extent of carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by duplex ultrasonography. Chronic arsenic exposure was estimated by an index of cumulative arsenic exposure (CAE) and the duration of artesian well water consumption. Urinary levels of inorganic arsenite [As(III)], arsenate [As(V)], monomethylarsonic acid [MMA(V)] and dimethylarsinic acid [DMA(V)] were determined by high performance liquid chromatography linked on-line to a hydride generator and atomic absorption spectrometry (HPLC-HG-AAS). The percentage of arsenic species, primary methylation index [PMI = MMA(V) / (As(III) + As(V)] and secondary methylation index [SMI = DMA(V) / MMA(V)] were calculated and employed as indicators of arsenic methylation capacity. Results showed that women and younger subjects had a more efficient arsenic methylation capacity than did men and the elderly. Carotid atherosclerosis cases had a significantly greater percentage of MMA(V) [%MMA(V)] and a lower percentage of DMA [%DMA (V)] compared to controls. Subjects in the highest two tertiles of PMI with a median of CAE > 0 mg/L-year had an odds ratio (OR) and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of carotid atherosclerosis of 2.61 and 0.98-6.90 compared to those in the highest two tertiles of PMI with a CAE = 0 mg/L-year. We conclude that individuals with greater exposure to arsenic and lower capacity to methylate inorganic arsenic may be at a higher risk to carotid atherosclerosis

  11. A case study of full integration of the arts into core subject area instruction in one East Texas secondary school

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leysath, Maggie

    This exploratory phenomenological case study investigated the influence the full integration of the arts into core subject instruction has on classroom environment, student academic achievement, and student engagement as perceived by administrators, teachers, and students in one East Texas secondary school. Participant interviews were analyzed using Creswell's (2012) six-step method for analyzing phenomenological studies. The researcher implemented three learning activities in which ceramics learning objectives were fully integrated with chemistry learning objectives. The first activity combined clay properties and pottery wheel throwing with significant numbers. The second activity combined glaze formulation with moles. The third combined stoichiometry with the increased glaze formula for students to glaze the bowls they made. Findings suggest the full integration of art in core subject area instruction has numerous positive effects. Participants reported improved academic achievement for all students including reluctant learners. Students, teachers, and the administrator reported greater participation in the art integrated activities. Participants perceived a need for further training for teachers and administrators for greater success.

  12. Regional Cultures and the Psychological Geography of Switzerland: Person-Environment-Fit in Personality Predicts Subjective Wellbeing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Götz, Friedrich M; Ebert, Tobias; Rentfrow, Peter J

    2018-01-01

    The present study extended traditional nation-based research on person-culture-fit to the regional level. First, we examined the geographical distribution of Big Five personality traits in Switzerland. Across the 26 Swiss cantons, unique patterns were observed for all traits. For Extraversion and Neuroticism clear language divides emerged between the French- and Italian-speaking South-West vs. the German-speaking North-East. Second, multilevel modeling demonstrated that person-environment-fit in Big Five, composed of elevation (i.e., mean differences between individual profile and cantonal profile), scatter (differences in mean variances) and shape (Pearson correlations between individual and cantonal profiles across all traits; Furr, 2008, 2010), predicted the development of subjective wellbeing (i.e., life satisfaction, satisfaction with personal relationships, positive affect, negative affect) over a period of 4 years. Unexpectedly, while the effects of shape were in line with the person-environment-fit hypothesis (better fit predicted higher subjective wellbeing), the effects of scatter showed the opposite pattern, while null findings were observed for elevation. Across a series of robustness checks, the patterns for shape and elevation were consistently replicated. While that was mostly the case for scatter as well, the effects of scatter appeared to be somewhat less robust and more sensitive to the specific way fit was modeled when predicting certain outcomes (negative affect, positive affect). Distinguishing between supplementary and complementary fit may help to reconcile these findings and future research should explore whether and if so under which conditions these concepts may be applicable to the respective facets of person-culture-fit.

  13. Regional Cultures and the Psychological Geography of Switzerland: Person–Environment–Fit in Personality Predicts Subjective Wellbeing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Friedrich M. Götz

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The present study extended traditional nation-based research on person–culture–fit to the regional level. First, we examined the geographical distribution of Big Five personality traits in Switzerland. Across the 26 Swiss cantons, unique patterns were observed for all traits. For Extraversion and Neuroticism clear language divides emerged between the French- and Italian-speaking South-West vs. the German-speaking North-East. Second, multilevel modeling demonstrated that person–environment–fit in Big Five, composed of elevation (i.e., mean differences between individual profile and cantonal profile, scatter (differences in mean variances and shape (Pearson correlations between individual and cantonal profiles across all traits; Furr, 2008, 2010, predicted the development of subjective wellbeing (i.e., life satisfaction, satisfaction with personal relationships, positive affect, negative affect over a period of 4 years. Unexpectedly, while the effects of shape were in line with the person–environment–fit hypothesis (better fit predicted higher subjective wellbeing, the effects of scatter showed the opposite pattern, while null findings were observed for elevation. Across a series of robustness checks, the patterns for shape and elevation were consistently replicated. While that was mostly the case for scatter as well, the effects of scatter appeared to be somewhat less robust and more sensitive to the specific way fit was modeled when predicting certain outcomes (negative affect, positive affect. Distinguishing between supplementary and complementary fit may help to reconcile these findings and future research should explore whether and if so under which conditions these concepts may be applicable to the respective facets of person–culture–fit.

  14. Regional Cultures and the Psychological Geography of Switzerland: Person–Environment–Fit in Personality Predicts Subjective Wellbeing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Götz, Friedrich M.; Ebert, Tobias; Rentfrow, Peter J.

    2018-01-01

    The present study extended traditional nation-based research on person–culture–fit to the regional level. First, we examined the geographical distribution of Big Five personality traits in Switzerland. Across the 26 Swiss cantons, unique patterns were observed for all traits. For Extraversion and Neuroticism clear language divides emerged between the French- and Italian-speaking South-West vs. the German-speaking North-East. Second, multilevel modeling demonstrated that person–environment–fit in Big Five, composed of elevation (i.e., mean differences between individual profile and cantonal profile), scatter (differences in mean variances) and shape (Pearson correlations between individual and cantonal profiles across all traits; Furr, 2008, 2010), predicted the development of subjective wellbeing (i.e., life satisfaction, satisfaction with personal relationships, positive affect, negative affect) over a period of 4 years. Unexpectedly, while the effects of shape were in line with the person–environment–fit hypothesis (better fit predicted higher subjective wellbeing), the effects of scatter showed the opposite pattern, while null findings were observed for elevation. Across a series of robustness checks, the patterns for shape and elevation were consistently replicated. While that was mostly the case for scatter as well, the effects of scatter appeared to be somewhat less robust and more sensitive to the specific way fit was modeled when predicting certain outcomes (negative affect, positive affect). Distinguishing between supplementary and complementary fit may help to reconcile these findings and future research should explore whether and if so under which conditions these concepts may be applicable to the respective facets of person–culture–fit. PMID:29713299

  15. Predicting the presence and cover of management relevant invasive plant species on protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacona, Gwenllian; Price, Franklin D; Armsworth, Paul R

    2016-01-15

    Invasive species are a management concern on protected areas worldwide. Conservation managers need to predict infestations of invasive plants they aim to treat if they want to plan for long term management. Many studies predict the presence of invasive species, but predictions of cover are more relevant for management. Here we examined how predictors of invasive plant presence and cover differ across species that vary in their management priority. To do so, we used data on management effort and cover of invasive plant species on central Florida protected areas. Using a zero-inflated multiple regression framework, we showed that protected area features can predict the presence and cover of the focal species but the same features rarely explain both. There were several predictors of either presence or cover that were important across multiple species. Protected areas with three days of frost per year or fewer were more likely to have occurrences of four of the six focal species. When invasive plants were present, their proportional cover was greater on small preserves for all species, and varied with surrounding household density for three species. None of the predictive features were clearly related to whether species were prioritized for management or not. Our results suggest that predictors of cover and presence can differ both within and across species but do not covary with management priority. We conclude that conservation managers need to select predictors of invasion with care as species identity can determine the relationship between predictors of presence and the more management relevant predictors of cover. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Does early change predict long-term (6 months) improvements in subjects who receive manual therapy for low back pain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Chad; Petersen, Shannon; Donaldson, Megan; Wilhelm, Mark; Learman, Ken

    2017-09-01

    Early change is commonly assessed for manual therapy interventions and has been used to determine treatment appropriateness. However, current studies have only explored the relationship of between or within-session changes and short-/medium-term outcomes. The goal of this study was to determine whether pain changes after two weeks of pragmatic manual therapy could predict those participants with chronic low back pain who demonstrate continued improvements at 6-month follow-up. This study was a retrospective observational design. Univariate logistic regression analyses were performed using a 33% and a 50% pain change to predict improvement. Those who experienced a ≥33% pain reduction by 2 weeks had 6.98 (95% CI = 1.29, 37.53) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the GRoC and 4.74 (95% CI = 1.31, 17.17) times higher odds of 50% improvement on the ODI (at 6 months). Subjects who reported a ≥50% pain reduction at 2 weeks had 5.98 (95% CI = 1.56, 22.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the GRoC and 3.99 (95% CI = 1.23, 12.88) times higher odds of a 50% improvement in the ODI (at 6 months). Future studies may investigate whether a change in plan of care is beneficial for patients who are not showing early improvement predictive of a good long-term outcome.

  17. Functional connectivity between somatosensory and motor brain areas predicts individual differences in motor learning by observing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGregor, Heather R; Gribble, Paul L

    2017-08-01

    Action observation can facilitate the acquisition of novel motor skills; however, there is considerable individual variability in the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. Here we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in brain function or structure can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Subjects underwent an anatomical MRI scan and resting-state fMRI scans to assess preobservation gray matter volume and preobservation resting-state functional connectivity (FC), respectively. On the following day, subjects observed a video of a tutor adapting her reaches to a novel force field. After observation, subjects performed reaches in a force field as a behavioral assessment of gains in motor learning resulting from observation. We found that individual differences in resting-state FC, but not gray matter volume, predicted postobservation gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state FC between left primary somatosensory cortex and bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and primary somatosensory cortex and left superior parietal lobule was positively correlated with behavioral measures of postobservation motor learning. Sensory-motor resting-state FC can thus predict the extent to which observation will promote subsequent motor learning. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that individual differences in preobservation brain function can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state functional connectivity within a sensory-motor network may be used as a biomarker for the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. This kind of information may be useful if observation is to be used as a way to boost neuroplasticity and sensory-motor recovery for patients undergoing rehabilitation for diseases that impair movement such as stroke. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  18. Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

    2017-07-01

    We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

  19. Reading a suspenseful literary text activates brain areas related to social cognition and predictive inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz Lehne

    Full Text Available Stories can elicit powerful emotions. A key emotional response to narrative plots (e.g., novels, movies, etc. is suspense. Suspense appears to build on basic aspects of human cognition such as processes of expectation, anticipation, and prediction. However, the neural processes underlying emotional experiences of suspense have not been previously investigated. We acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data while participants read a suspenseful literary text (E.T.A. Hoffmann's "The Sandman" subdivided into short text passages. Individual ratings of experienced suspense obtained after each text passage were found to be related to activation in the medial frontal cortex, bilateral frontal regions (along the inferior frontal sulcus, lateral premotor cortex, as well as posterior temporal and temporo-parietal areas. The results indicate that the emotional experience of suspense depends on brain areas associated with social cognition and predictive inference.

  20. Prediction of bead area contact load at the tire-wheel interface using NASTRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. H. S.

    1982-01-01

    The theoretical prediction of the bead area contact load at the tire wheel interface using NASTRAN is reported. The application of the linear code to a basically nonlinear problem results in excessive deformation of the structure and the tire-wheel contact conditions become impossible to achieve. A psuedo-nonlinear approach was adopted in which the moduli of the cord reinforced composite are increased so that the computed key deformations matched that of the experiment. Numerical results presented are discussed.

  1. Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

  2. Simulating urban-scale air pollutants and their predicting capabilities over the Seoul metropolitan area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Il-Soo; Lee, Suk-Jo; Kim, Cheol-Hee; Yoo, Chul; Lee, Yong-Hee

    2004-06-01

    Urban-scale air pollutants for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter > or = 10 microm, and ozone (O3) were simulated over the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea, during the period of July 2-11, 2002, and their predicting capabilities were discussed. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) and the highly disaggregated anthropogenic and the biogenic gridded emissions (1 km x 1 km) recently prepared by the Korean Ministry of Environment were applied. Wind fields with observational nudging in the prognostic meteorological model TAPM are optionally adopted to comparatively examine the meteorological impact on the prediction capabilities of urban-scale air pollutants. The result shows that the simulated concentrations of secondary air pollutant largely agree with observed levels with an index of agreement (IOA) of >0.6, whereas IOAs of approximately 0.4 are found for most primary pollutants in the major cities, reflecting the quality of emission data in the urban area. The observationally nudged wind fields with higher IOAs have little effect on the prediction for both primary and secondary air pollutants, implying that the detailed wind field does not consistently improve the urban air pollution model performance if emissions are not well specified. However, the robust highest concentrations are better described toward observations by imposing observational nudging, suggesting the importance of wind fields for the predictions of extreme concentrations such as robust highest concentrations, maximum levels, and >90th percentiles of concentrations for both primary and secondary urban-scale air pollutants.

  3. Cytogenetic analysis chromosomal status of subjects from the regions in the vicinity of uranium-contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovicic, D.; Milacie, S.; Kovacevic, R.; Petrovic, I.

    2004-01-01

    The past application of nuclear technology has brought about free emission of numerous Due to the military application of the depleted uranium (DU) in our country, the problem of its radioactivity and hemo toxicity if actualized. Likewise every heavy metal, its is highly toxic and, in addition to it, also radioactive: Interaction of the water-soluble uranium forms with soil is an important effect. In this way, it penetrates into food chain and endangers human health. The study was aimed at determining possible karyotype genotoxic effects in individuals from the regions close to the contaminated areas. Biological dosimetry was performed using modified Moorthead's micromethod. Our studies included the targeted group of 29 patients from the affected regions. The subjects were averagely aged 39.5±2.8 years. Average age of the control group (k), unexposed to the effects of the known genotoxic agents comprising 22 individuals was 28.3±1.2 years. The presented data evidenced that increased incidence of the chromosomal aberrations was found in 6 subjects,accounting for 20.6%. Dicentric type changes were evidence, as well ring chromosomes and eccentric fragments, which are, at the same time the most frequent aberrations. The changes are considered reparable aberrations accounting for 2-3% in metaphases of the unexposed individuals. Statistical data processing evidenced significant difference (p<0.005) between structural chromosomal aberrations in the studied and control groups, as well as in the number of chromatid aberrations (p<0.05).Based on the obtained data it may be concluded that human karyotype changes were present in the studied group, resulting from interaction of ionizing irradiation and other genotoxic agents, with possibility of potent synergistic effects. It is necessary to stress the importance of further monitoring and control of the general population health, particularly due to possible late genetic effects that may affect future generations. (Author) 10

  4. The Measurement of Relevance Amount of Documents That By Using of Google cross-language retrieval About Agriculture Subject Area are Retrieved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Jamshidi Ghahfarokhi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the relevance amount of documents has been investigated by using google cross-language retrieval tools about a agriculture subject area in cross-language retrieval form, are retrieved. For this purpose, by using Persian journals articles that have had English abstracts, Persian phrases and subject terms with their English equivalent were extracted. In three class us, thirty number of phrases and subject terms of agriculture area were extracted: First class, subject phrases that only in agriculture are used; Secondary, agriculture subject terms that in other fields are used too; Third class, agriculture subject terms that out of this field are considered as public term. Then by these phrases and terms, documents were searched, and relevance amount of search results are investigated. Results of study showed that google cross-language retrieval tools for two classes of phrases and terms, in cross-language retrieval of relevance document about agriculture subject area, aren`t succeed: one class, agriculture subject terms that in other fields are used too. other class, agriculture subject terms that out of agriculture field are considered as public term. Google cross-language retrieval tools about subject phrase and terms that only in agriculture field are used, are performance rather desirable than other two class of phrase and terms

  5. Interaction between physiological and subjective states predicts the effect of a judging panel on the postures of cellists in performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi eEndo

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the effect of a panel of judges on the movements and postures of cellists in performance. 24 expert cellists played a short piece of music, to a metronome beat, in the presence and absence of the panel. Kinematic analyses showed that in the presence of the panel the temporal execution of left arm shifting movements became less variable and closer to the metronome beat. In contrast, the panel's presence had no reliable effect on their spatial accuracy. A detailed postural analysis indicated that left elbow angle during execution of a given high note was correlated with level of heart rate, though the nature of this correlation was systematically affected by the relevant participant's subjective state: if anxious, a higher heart rate correlated with a more flexed elbow, if not anxious then with a more extended elbow. Our results suggest a change in physiological state alone does not reliably predict a change in behaviour in performing cellists, which instead depends on the interaction between physiological state and subjective experience of anxiety. This highlights a need to distinguish performance anxiety from physiological arousal, to which end we advocate currency for the specific term performance arousal to describe heightened physiological activity in a performer.

  6. Predicted costs of environmental controls for a commercial oil shale industry. Volume II. A subjective self-assessment of uncertainty in the predicted costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jovanovich, A.P.; Stone, M.L.; Taylor, G.C.

    1979-07-01

    The uncertainties in Volume I without extensive additional engineering effort were identified and quantified. Substantial uncertainty was found in several critical variables, allowing a broad range of possible values. Calculations of the cost impact associated with such broad ranges, however, did not always result in significant differences. Seven major areas of pollution control activity were judged to warrant the assessment effort. Three of these areas were found to contain significant uncertainty and additional research is suggested. These areas are: H/sub 2/S removal from the retort gas stream (Stretford process); organic removal from process wastewaters (bio-oxidation or other alternatives); and slurry backfilling of spent Modified In Situ (MIS) retorts. The overall results of the assessment and analysis process are summarized in Table 1-1 in terms of total cost for pollution control. The distributions have been divided into three ranges in this table. A center range is given which contains 80% to 90% probability, and the costs outside this range with probabilities are given. The full distributions can be found in Section 5.0. The subjective probability distributions are a quantification of opinion. The probability of encountering costs below the low figure or above the high figure for each process and scenario is judged to be nearly zero.

  7. Mountain Pine Beetles, Salvage Logging, and Hydrologic Change: Predicting Wet Ground Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Rex

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest land showing the potential for exceptionally large-scale disturbance to influence watershed hydrology. Pine stands killed by the epidemic can experience reduced levels of evapotranspiration and precipitation interception, which can translate into an increase in soil moisture as observed by some forest practitioners during salvage logging in the epicenter of the outbreak. They reported the replacement of summer ground, dry firm soil areas, with winter ground areas identified by having wetter, less firm soils upon which forestry equipment operation is difficult or impossible before winter freeze-up. To decrease the likelihood of soil disturbance from harvesting, a set of hazard indicators was developed to predict wet ground areas in areas heavily infested by the mountain pine beetle. Hazard indicators were based on available GIS data, aerial photographs, and local knowledge. Indicators were selected by an iterative process that began with office-based selection of potential indicators, model development and prediction, field verification, and model refinement to select those indicators that explained most field data variability. Findings indicate that the most effective indicators were lodgepole pine content, understory, drainage density, soil texture, and the topographic index.

  8. Semiautomatic Segmentation of Rim Area Focal Hyperautofluorescence Predicts Progression of Geographic Atrophy Due to Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allingham, Michael J; Nie, Qing; Lad, Eleonora M; Izatt, Daniel J; Mettu, Priyatham S; Cousins, Scott W; Farsiu, Sina

    2016-04-01

    To develop image analysis software usable by nonexpert graders to segment geographic atrophy (GA) from dry AMD and to quantify rim area focal hyperautofluorescence (RAFH) surrounding GA on fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images. To compare the GA progression predictions based on RAFH with those of a validated qualitative classification system. Retrospective analysis of serial FAF images from 49 eyes of 30 subjects with GA was performed using MATLAB-based software (MathWorks, Natick, MA, USA). Correlation between RAFH and progression of GA was analyzed using Spearman correlation. Comparisons of lesion growth rate between RAFH tertiles used generalized estimating equations and Kruskal-Wallis testing. Interobserver variability in lesion size, growth rate and RAFH were compared between two expert and one nonexpert grader using Bland-Altman statistics. Rim area focal hyperautofluorescence was positively correlated with GA progression rate (ρ = 0.49, P < 0.001). Subjects in the middle or highest RAFH tertile were at greater risk of progression (P = 0.005 and P = 0.001, respectively). Mean difference in RAFH was 0.012 between expert and -0.005 to 0.017 between expert and nonexperts. Mean difference in lesion size (mm2) was 0.11 between expert and -0.29 to 0.41 between expert and nonexperts. Mean difference in lesion growth rate (mm2/mo) was 0.0098 between expert and -0.027 to 0.037 between expert and nonexperts. Risk stratification based on RAFH tertile was 96% identical across all graders. Our semiautomated image analysis software facilitates stratification of progression risk based on RAFH and enabled a nonexpert grader with minimal training to obtain results comparable to expert graders. Predictions based on RAFH were similar to those of a validated qualitative classification system.

  9. Real - time Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Groundwater in Typical Arid Area Based on SPASS Improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-ming

    2018-03-01

    The establishment of traditional groundwater numerical simulation model, parameter identification and inspection process, especially the water level fitting and the actual observation of the value obtained compared to a large error. Based on the SPASS software, a large number of statistical analysis of the numerical simulation results show that the complexity of the terrain in the study area, the distribution of lithology and the influence of the parameters on the groundwater level in the study area have great influence on the groundwater level. Through the multi-factor analysis and adjustment, the simulated groundwater flow and the actual observation are similar. Then, the final result is taken as the standard value, and the groundwater in the study area is simulated and predicted in real time. The simulation results provide technical support for the further development and utilization of the local water resources.

  10. Functional connectivity of the ventral tegmental area and avolition in subjects with schizophrenia: a resting state functional MRI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, Giulia Maria; Stanziano, Mario; Papa, Michele; Mucci, Armida; Prinster, Anna; Soricelli, Andrea; Galderisi, Silvana

    2018-04-10

    Avolition, a deficit in goal-directed behavior, is a key aspect of negative symptoms. It is highly prevalent in schizophrenia and is associated to poor functional outcome and to measures of real life motivation, indicating that central to the concept is the lack of interest and motivation. In this study we tested the hypothesis that avolition is related to altered connectivity within dopaminergic cortico-striatal circuits involved in motivation processes. Since dopamine input to these circuits derives mostly from the ventro-tegmental area (VTA), we investigated the relationships between the resting-state functional connectivity (RS-FC) of the VTA and avolition in twenty-six subjects with schizophrenia (SCZ), treated with second-generation antipsychotics only, compared to twenty-two healthy controls (HC). SCZ, in comparison to HC, showed significantly reduced RS-FC of the VTA with bilateral ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC), bilateral insular cortex (IC) and right (R) lateral occipital complex (LOC) and increased RS-FC of the VTA with bilateral dorso-lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Significant negative correlations were found between avolition and RS-FC of the VTA with the bilateral IC, R VLPFC and R LOC. According to our findings, avolition is linked to a disconnectivity of the VTA from several key cortical regions involved in the integration of value information with action selection. These findings are in line with translational animal models of "auto-activation apathy". Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  11. SYSTEM-COGNITIVE MODEL OF FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIVERSIFIED AGRO-INDUSTRIAL CORPORATIONS. PART I. COGNITIVE STRUCTURING AND FORMALIZATION OF THE SUBJECT AREA

    OpenAIRE

    Lutsenko Y. V.; Loyko V. I.; Baranovskaya T. P.; Makarevich O. A.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, in accordance with the methodology of the Automated system-cognitive analysis (ASCanalysis), we examine the implementation of the 1st and 2nd stages of ASC-analysis: cognitive structuring and formalization of the subject area. At the stage of cognitive structurization of subject area, researchers decide what to consider as the object of modeling, the factors affecting it and the results of their actions. In accordance with the results of the cognitive structurization, we prep...

  12. Predicting the Impact of Urban Green Areas on Microclimate Changes of Mashhad Residential Areas during the Hottest Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    zahra karimian

    2017-09-01

    between receptors was obtained at 13 hour. The trend of relative humidity changes was very similar in both residential sites. In these two sites the most differences in the relative humidity was obtained at 12 oclock.. In addition, the trend of Predicted Mean Vote (PMV in Andisheh residential block showed that these changes in central and south-west part of the site were similar. The simulation with vegetation in the sites, also, showed that the trend of temperature and relative humidity changes were similar. The trends of temperature changes in residential site, Hesabi, in the defined receptors were very similar. So that temperature increased from 12 oclock to 15. While the trend of relative humidity changes was quite the reverse. This study results showed that the difference in temperature, relative humidity and PMV between measured and simulated data were minimal in both residential sites. Moreover, the data comparison of PMV indicated that in both residential sites, despite of simulation with vegetation, the human thermal comfort did not improve, so that these sites were in the range of extreme heat stress. There are several reasons to justify this issue, such as the percentage and the type of vegetation, factors related to the topography and geography of area, building distribution and density, type and color of the building materials and surfaces, etc. However, in this part of the study, other factors were constant, except vegetation. It seems that with increase of percentage and the ratio of vegetation, changes in temperature, relative humidity and other micro-climate factors, are created, but sometimes for the reasons stated, the temperature during the hottest period of the year is too high so that increase in vegetation will have little impact on outdoor thermal comfort. It might be the simulated area on these sites as well as the type and the ratio of the selected species to reduce the temperature and increase the relative humidity have been not adequately

  13. Using Monte Carlo/Gaussian Based Small Area Estimates to Predict Where Medicaid Patients Reside.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, Jess J; Wen, Xuejin; Goel, Satyender; Zhou, Jing; Fu, Lina; Kho, Abel N

    2016-01-01

    Electronic Health Records (EHR) are rapidly becoming accepted as tools for planning and population health 1,2 . With the national dialogue around Medicaid expansion 12 , the role of EHR data has become even more important. For their potential to be fully realized and contribute to these discussions, techniques for creating accurate small area estimates is vital. As such, we examined the efficacy of developing small area estimates for Medicaid patients in two locations, Albuquerque and Chicago, by using a Monte Carlo/Gaussian technique that has worked in accurately locating registered voters in North Carolina 11 . The Albuquerque data, which includes patient address, will first be used to assess the accuracy of the methodology. Subsequently, it will be combined with the EHR data from Chicago to develop a regression that predicts Medicaid patients by US Block Group. We seek to create a tool that is effective in translating EHR data's potential for population health studies.

  14. Distributed Model Predictive Load Frequency Control of Multi-area Power System with DFIGs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi Zhang; Xiangjie Liu; Bin Qu

    2017-01-01

    Reliable load frequency control(LFC) is crucial to the operation and design of modern electric power systems. Considering the LFC problem of a four-area interconnected power system with wind turbines, this paper presents a distributed model predictive control(DMPC) based on coordination scheme.The proposed algorithm solves a series of local optimization problems to minimize a performance objective for each control area. The generation rate constraints(GRCs), load disturbance changes, and the wind speed constraints are considered. Furthermore, the DMPC algorithm may reduce the impact of the randomness and intermittence of wind turbine effectively. A performance comparison between the proposed controller with and without the participation of the wind turbines is carried out. Analysis and simulation results show possible improvements on closed–loop performance, and computational burden with the physical constraints.

  15. Predictive factors of subjective sleep quality and insomnia complaint in patients with stroke: implications for clinical practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PATRICIA C. DA ROCHA

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The complaints regarding sleep problems have not been well identified after a stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive factors of sleep quality and insomnia complaints in patients with stroke. A total of 70 subjects, 40 patients (57 ± 7 years and 30 healthy controls (52 ± 6 years assessed by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI and the Sleep Habits Questionnaire took part in the study. The data were analyzed using the chi-square test, the Student's t-test and logistic regression analysis. On average, the patients showed poor sleep quality (patients: 6.3 ± 3.5; controls: 3.9 ± 2.2; p= 0.002 and insomnia complaint was the most prevalent (patients: 37.5%; controls: 6.7%; p= 0.007. The absence of insomnia complaint (OR= 0.120; 95%CI= 0.017-0.873; p= 0.036 and the decreased latency of sleep (OR= 0.120; 95%CI= 0.017-0.873; p= 0.036 were the protective factors of sleep quality. Female sex (OR= 11.098; 95%CI= 1.167-105.559; p= 0.036 and fragmented sleep (OR= 32.040; 95%CI= 3.236-317.261; p= 0.003 were the risk factors for insomnia complaint. We suggest that complaints of poor sleep quality and insomnia should be given priority assessment during clinical diagnosis of sleep disorders in stroke.

  16. GIS Based Distributed Runoff Predictions in Variable Source Area Watersheds Employing the SCS-Curve Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuis, T. S.; Mendoza, G.; Lyon, S. W.; Gerard Marchant, P.; Walter, M. T.; Schneiderman, E.

    2003-04-01

    Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be ubiquitously used in GIS-BASED water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed within an integrated GIS modeling environment a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Spatial representation of hydrologic processes is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point source pollution. The methodology presented here uses the traditional SCS-CN method to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and uses a topographic index to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was incorporated in an existing GWLF water quality model and applied to sub-watersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State. We found that the distributed CN-VSA approach provided a physically-based method that gives realistic results for watersheds with VSA hydrology.

  17. Prediction of interfacial area transport in a scaled 8×8 BWR rod bundle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, X.; Schlegel, J.P.; Liu, Y.; Paranjape, S.; Hibiki, T.; Ishii, M. [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Dr., West Lafayette, IN 47907-2017 (United States); Bajorek, S.; Ireland, A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

    2016-12-15

    In the two-fluid model, it is important to give an accurate prediction for the interfacial area concentration. In order to achieve this goal, the interfacial area transport equation has been developed. This study focuses on the benchmark of IATE performance in a rod bundle geometry. A set of interfacial area concentration source and sink term models are proposed for a rod bundle geometry based on the confined channel IATE model. This model was selected as a basis because of the relative similarity of the two geometries. Benchmarking of the new model with interfacial area concentration data in an 8×8 rod bundle test section which has been scaled from an actual BWR fuel bundle is performed. The model shows good agreement in bubbly and cap-bubbly flows, which are similar in many types of geometries, while it shows some discrepancy in churn-turbulent flow regime. This discrepancy may be due to the geometrical differences between the actual rod bundle test facility and the facility used to collect the data which benchmarked the original source and sink models.

  18. Prediction of adiabatic bubbly flows in TRACE using the interfacial area transport equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talley, J.; Worosz, T.; Kim, S.; Mahaffy, J.; Bajorek, S.; Tien, K.

    2011-01-01

    The conventional thermal-hydraulic reactor system analysis codes utilize a two-field, two-fluid formulation to model two-phase flows. To close this model, static flow regime transition criteria and algebraic relations are utilized to estimate the interfacial area concentration (a i ). To better reflect the continuous evolution of two-phase flow, an experimental version of TRACE is being developed which implements the interfacial area transport equation (IATE) to replace the flow regime based approach. Dynamic estimation of a i is provided through the use of mechanistic models for bubble coalescence and disintegration. To account for the differences in bubble interactions and drag forces, two-group bubble transport is sought. As such, Group 1 accounts for the transport of spherical and distorted bubbles, while Group 2 accounts for the cap, slug, and churn-turbulent bubbles. Based on this categorization, a two-group IATE applicable to the range of dispersed two-phase flows has been previously developed. Recently, a one-group, one-dimensional, adiabatic IATE has been implemented into the TRACE code with mechanistic models accounting for: (1) bubble breakup due to turbulent impact of an eddy on a bubble, (2) bubble coalescence due to random collision driven by turbulent eddies, and (3) bubble coalescence due to the acceleration of a bubble in the wake region of a preceding bubble. To demonstrate the enhancement of the code's capability using the IATE, experimental data for a i , void fraction, and bubble velocity measured by a multi-sensor conductivity probe are compared to both the IATE and flow regime based predictions. In total, 50 air-water vertical co-current upward and downward bubbly flow conditions in pipes with diameters ranging from 2.54 to 20.32 cm are evaluated. It is found that TRACE, using the conventional flow regime relation, always underestimates a i . Moreover, the axial trend of the a i prediction is always quasi-linear because a i in the

  19. Improved USLE-K factor prediction: A case study on water erosion areas in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil erodibility (K-factor is an essential factor in soil erosion prediction and conservation practises. The major obstacles to any accurate, large-scale soil erodibility estimation are the lack of necessary data on soil characteristics and the misuse of variable K-factor calculators. In this study, we assessed the performance of available erodibility estimators Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE, Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC and the Geometric Mean Diameter based (Dg model for different geographic regions based on the Chinese soil erodibility database (CSED. Results showed that previous estimators overestimated almost all K-values. Furthermore, only the USLE and Dg approaches could be directly and reliably applicable to black and loess soil regions. Based on the nonlinear best fitting techniques, we improved soil erodibility prediction by combining Dg and soil organic matter (SOM. The NSE, R2 and RE values were 0.94, 0.67 and 9.5% after calibrating the results independently; similar model performance was showed for the validation process. The results obtained via the proposed approach were more accurate that the former K-value predictions. Moreover, those improvements allowed us to effectively establish a regional soil erodibility map (1:250,000 scale of water erosion areas in China. The mean K-value of Chinese water erosion regions was 0.0321 (t ha h·(ha MJ mm−1 with a standard deviation of 0.0107 (t ha h·(ha MJ mm−1; K-values present a decreasing trend from North to South in water erosion areas in China. The yield soil erodibility dataset also satisfactorily corresponded to former K-values from different scales (local, regional, and national.

  20. Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sattler

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Inherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases.

  1. Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, F.; Cooper, A.H.; Johnson, K.S.

    2008-01-01

    Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility and, commonly, a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes may help in investigating dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs, and swallow holes are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database-the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment, and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of

  2. Automaticity and localisation of concurrents predicts colour area activity in grapheme-colour synaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould van Praag, Cassandra D; Garfinkel, Sarah; Ward, Jamie; Bor, Daniel; Seth, Anil K

    2016-07-29

    In grapheme-colour synaesthesia (GCS), the presentation of letters or numbers induces an additional 'concurrent' experience of colour. Early functional MRI (fMRI) investigations of GCS reported activation in colour-selective area V4 during the concurrent experience. However, others have failed to replicate this key finding. We reasoned that individual differences in synaesthetic phenomenology might explain this inconsistency in the literature. To test this hypothesis, we examined fMRI BOLD responses in a group of grapheme-colour synaesthetes (n=20) and matched controls (n=20) while characterising the individual phenomenology of the synaesthetes along dimensions of 'automaticity' and 'localisation'. We used an independent functional localiser to identify colour-selective areas in both groups. Activations in these areas were then assessed during achromatic synaesthesia-inducing, and non-inducing conditions; we also explored whole brain activations, where we sought to replicate the existing literature regarding synaesthesia effects. Controls showed no significant activations in the contrast of inducing > non-inducing synaesthetic stimuli, in colour-selective ROIs or at the whole brain level. In the synaesthete group, we correlated activation within colour-selective ROIs with individual differences in phenomenology using the Coloured Letters and Numbers (CLaN) questionnaire which measures, amongst other attributes, the subjective automaticity/attention in synaesthetic concurrents, and their spatial localisation. Supporting our hypothesis, we found significant correlations between individual measures of synaesthetic phenomenology and BOLD responses in colour-selective areas, when contrasting inducing against non-inducing stimuli. Specifically, left-hemisphere colour area responses were stronger for synaesthetes scoring high on phenomenological localisation and automaticity/attention, while right-hemisphere colour area responses showed a relationship with localisation

  3. Diagnostic test of predicted height model in Indonesian elderly: a study in an urban area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatmah Fatmah

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim In an anthropometric assessment, elderly are frequently unable to measure their height due to mobility and skeletal deformities. An alternative is to use a surrogate value of stature from arm span, knee height, and sitting height. The equations developed for predicting height in Indonesian elderly using these three predictors. The equations put in the nutritional assessment card (NSA of older people. Before the card which is the first new technology in Indonesia will be applied in the community, it should be tested. The study aimed was to conduct diagnostic test of predicted height model in the card compared to actual height.Methods Model validation towards 400 healthy elderly conducted in Jakarta City with cross-sectional design. The study was the second validation test of the model besides Depok City representing semi urban area which was undertaken as the first study.Result Male elderly had higher mean age, height, weight, arm span, knee height, and sitting height as compared to female elderly. The highest correlation between knee height and standing height was similar in women (r = 0.80; P < 0.001 and men (r = 0.78; P < 0.001, and followed by arm span and sitting height. Knee height had the lowest difference with standing height in men (3.13 cm and women (2.79 cm. Knee height had the biggest sensitivity (92.2%, and the highest specificity on sitting height (91.2%.Conclusion Stature prediction equation based on knee-height, arm span, and sitting height are applicable for nutritional status assessment in Indonesian elderly. (Med J Indones 2010;19:199-204Key words: diagnostic test, elderly, predicted height model

  4. Vegetation cover, tidal amplitude and land area predict short-term marsh vulnerability in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoolmaster, Donald; Stagg, Camille L.; Sharp, Leigh Anne; McGinnis, Tommy S.; Wood, Bernard; Piazza, Sarai

    2018-01-01

    The loss of coastal marshes is a topic of great concern, because these habitats provide tangible ecosystem services and are at risk from sea-level rise and human activities. In recent years, significant effort has gone into understanding and modeling the relationships between the biological and physical factors that contribute to marsh stability. Simulation-based process models suggest that marsh stability is the product of a complex feedback between sediment supply, flooding regime and vegetation response, resulting in elevation gains sufficient to match the combination of relative sea-level rise and losses from erosion. However, there have been few direct, empirical tests of these models, because long-term datasets that have captured sufficient numbers of marsh loss events in the context of a rigorous monitoring program are rare. We use a multi-year data set collected by the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) that includes transitions of monitored vegetation plots to open water to build and test a predictive model of near-term marsh vulnerability. We found that despite the conclusions of previous process models, elevation change had no ability to predict the transition of vegetated marsh to open water. However, we found that the processes that drive elevation change were significant predictors of transitions. Specifically, vegetation cover in prior year, land area in the surrounding 1 km2 (an estimate of marsh fragmentation), and the interaction of tidal amplitude and position in tidal frame were all significant factors predicting marsh loss. This suggests that 1) elevation change is likely better a predictor of marsh loss at time scales longer than we consider in this study and 2) the significant predictive factors affect marsh vulnerability through pathways other than elevation change, such as resistance to erosion. In addition, we found that, while sensitivity of marsh vulnerability to the predictive factors varied spatially across coastal Louisiana

  5. Improved Storm Monitoring and Prediction for the San Francisco Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Chandrasekar, V.; Anderson, M.; Davis, G.

    2017-12-01

    The Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) System is a multi-faceted project to improve precipitation and hydrologic monitoring, prediction, and decision support for the San Francisco Bay Area. The Bay Area faces a multitude of threats from extreme events, including disrupted transportation from flooded roads and railroad lines, water management challenges related to storm water, river and reservoir management and storm-related damage demanding emergency response. The threats occur on spatial scales ranging from local communities to the entire region and time scales ranging from hours to days. These challenges will be exacerbated by future sea level rise, more extreme weather events and increased vulnerabilities. AQPI is a collaboration of federal, state and local governments with assistance from the research community. Led by NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, in partnership with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, USGS, and Scripps, AQPI is a four-year effort funded in part by a grant from the California Department of Water Resource's Integrated Regional Water Management Program. The Sonoma County Water Agency is serving as the local sponsor of the project. Other local participants include the Santa Clara Valley Water District, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, and the Bay Area Flood Protection Agencies Association. AQPI will provide both improved observing capabilities and a suite of numerical forecast models to produce accurate and timely information for benefit of flood management, emergency response, water quality, ecosystem services, water supply and transportation management for the Bay Area. The resulting information will support decision making to mitigate flood risks, secure water supplies, minimize water quality impacts to the Bay from combined sewer overflows, and have improved lead-time on coastal and Bay inundation from extreme storms like Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The project is expected to

  6. {sup 1}H and {sup 31}P magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging of white matter signal hyperintensity areas in elderly subjects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Constans, J M [Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center and University of California Magnetic Resonance Unit, San Francisco, CA (United States); [California Univ., San Francisco, CA (United States). Dept. of Radiology; Meyerhoff, D J [Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center and University of California Magnetic Resonance Unit, San Francisco, CA (United States); [California Univ., San Francisco, CA (United States). Dept. of Radiology; Norman, D [California Univ., San Francisco, CA (United States). Dept. of Radiology; Fein, G [Department of Veterans Affairs Psychiatry Service, University of California, San Francisco, California (United States); [University of California, San Francisco, CA (United States). Dept. of Psychiatry; Weiner, M W [Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center and University of California Magnetic Resonance Unit, San Francisco, CA (United States); [California Univ., San Francisco, CA (United States). Dept. of Radiology; [California Univ., San Francisco, CA (United States). Dept. of Medicine; [DVA Medical Center, Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy Unit, San Francisco, CA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    White matter signal hyperintensities (WMSH) are commonly seen on MRI of elderly subjects. The purpose of this study was to characterize metabolic changes in the white matter of elderly subjects with extensive WMSH. We used water-suppressed proton ({sup 1}H) magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging (MRSI) to compare six subjects with extensive WMSH with eight age-matched elderly subjects with minimal or absent WMSH, and phosphorus ({sup 31}P) MRSI to compare nine subjects with extensive WMSH and seven age-matched elderly subjects without extensive WMSH. Relative to region-matched tissue in elderly controls, extensive WMSH were associated with increased signal from choline-containing metabolites, no significant change of signal from N-acetylaspartate, and a trend to a decreased phosphomonoester (PME) resonance. These findings suggest that WMSH may be associated with an alteration of brain myelin phospholipids in the absence of axonal damage. There were no differences in energy phosphates, consistent with lack of ongoing brain ischemia. Within the group with extensive WMSH, PME resonance measures were significantly lower in WMSH than in contralateral normal-appearing white matter. These results provide information on pathophysiology of WMSH and a basis for comparison with WMSH in Alzheimer`s disease, vascular dementia, multiple sclerosis, and other diseases. (orig.). With 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  7. Predicting fuel poverty at a small-area level in England

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fahmy, Eldin; Gordon, David; Patsios, Demi

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a series of models for predicting the incidence of fuel poverty in England at a small-area level and examines the adequacy of the modelled results in informing our understanding of the geography of fuel poverty. This paper summarises the development of alternative approaches to model specification based upon different approaches to the treatment of household income. Since 2003 small-area fuel poverty estimates have been widely used to inform affordable warmth policies and local targeting of fuel poverty programs. Whilst improvements in data sources and methods in recent years provide an opportunity to better understand the spatial distribution of fuel poverty, these analyses suggest that our understanding of the incidence and spatial distribution of fuel poverty is highly sensitive to the way in which household incomes are measured. - Highlights: → The proposed models estimate fuel poverty incidence at a small-area level. → This is necessary in order to accurately target local fuel poverty interventions. → Fuel poverty estimates are highly sensitive to differences in income measurement. → Fewer children and more pensioners are fuel poor using EHCS income measures. → More children and fewer pensioners are fuel poor using HBAI income measures.

  8. MLP based models to predict PM10, O3 concentrations, in Sines industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durao, R.; Pereira, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    Sines is an important Portuguese industrial area located southwest cost of Portugal with important nearby protected natural areas. The main economical activities are related with this industrial area, the deep-water port, petrochemical and thermo-electric industry. Nevertheless, tourism is also an important economic activity especially in summer time with potential to grow. The aim of this study is to develop prediction models of pollutant concentration categories (e.g. low concentration and high concentration) in order to provide early warnings to the competent authorities who are responsible for the air quality management. The knowledge in advanced of pollutant high concentrations occurrence will allow the implementation of mitigation actions and the release of precautionary alerts to population. The regional air quality monitoring network consists in three monitoring stations where a set of pollutants' concentrations are registered on a continuous basis. From this set stands out the tropospheric ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) due to the high concentrations occurring in the region and their adverse effects on human health. Moreover, the major industrial plants of the region monitor SO2, NO2 and particles emitted flows at the principal chimneys (point sources), also on a continuous basis,. Therefore Artificial neuronal networks (ANN) were the applied methodology to predict next day pollutant concentrations; due to the ANNs structure they have the ability to capture the non-linear relationships between predictor variables. Hence the first step of this study was to apply multivariate exploratory techniques to select the best predictor variables. The classification trees methodology (CART) was revealed to be the most appropriate in this case.. Results shown that pollutants atmospheric concentrations are mainly dependent on industrial emissions and a complex combination of meteorological factors and the time of the year. In the second step, the Multi

  9. Visceral fat area predicts survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nault, Jean-Charles; Pigneur, Frédéric; Nelson, Anaïs Charles; Costentin, Charlotte; Tselikas, Lambros; Katsahian, Sandrine; Diao, Guoqing; Laurent, Alexis; Mallat, Ariane; Duvoux, Christophe; Luciani, Alain; Decaens, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Anthropometric measurements have been linked to resistance to anti-angiogenic treatment and survival. Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib or brivanib in 2008-2011 were included in this retrospective study. Anthropometric measurements were assessed using computed tomography and were correlated with drug toxicity, radiological response, and overall survival. 52 patients were included, Barcelona Clinic Liver Classification B (38%) and C (62%), with a mean value of α-fetoprotein of 29,554±85,654 ng/mL, with a median overall survival of 10.5 months. Sarcopenia was associated with a greater rate of hand-foot syndrome (P=0.049). Modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (mRECIST) and Choi criteria were significantly associated with survival, but RECIST criteria were not. An absence of hand-foot syndrome and high-visceral fat area were associated with progressive disease as assessed by RECIST and mRECIST criteria. In multivariate analyses, high visceral fat area (HR=3.6; P=0.002), low lean body mass (HR=2.4; P=0.015), and presence of hand-foot syndrome (HR=1.8; P=0.004) were significantly associated with overall survival. In time-dependent multivariate analyses; only high visceral fat area was associated with survival. Visceral fat area is associated with survival and seems to be a predictive marker for primary resistance to tyrosine kinase inhibitors in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Right Brodmann area 18 predicts tremor arrest after Vim radiosurgery: a voxel-based morphometry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuleasca, Constantin; Witjas, Tatiana; Van de Ville, Dimitri; Najdenovska, Elena; Verger, Antoine; Girard, Nadine; Champoudry, Jerome; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Cuadra, Meritxell Bach; Levivier, Marc; Guedj, Eric; Régis, Jean

    2018-03-01

    Drug-resistant essential tremor (ET) can benefit from open standard stereotactic procedures, such as deep-brain stimulation or radiofrequency thalamotomy. Non-surgical candidates can be offered either high-focused ultrasound (HIFU) or radiosurgery (RS). All procedures aim to target the same thalamic site, the ventro-intermediate nucleus (e.g., Vim). The mechanisms by which tremor stops after Vim RS or HIFU remain unknown. We used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) on pretherapeutic neuroimaging data and assessed which anatomical site would best correlate with tremor arrest 1 year after Vim RS. Fifty-two patients (30 male, 22 female; mean age 71.6 years, range 49-82) with right-sided ET benefited from left unilateral Vim RS in Marseille, France. Targeting was performed in a uniform manner, using 130 Gy and a single 4-mm collimator. Neurological (pretherapeutic and 1 year after) and neuroimaging (baseline) assessments were completed. Tremor score on the treated hand (TSTH) at 1 year after Vim RS was included in a statistical parametric mapping analysis of variance (ANOVA) model as a continuous variable with pretherapeutic neuroimaging data. Pretherapeutic gray matter density (GMD) was further correlated with TSTH improvement. No a priori hypothesis was used in the statistical model. The only statistically significant region was right Brodmann area (BA) 18 (visual association area V2, p = 0.05, cluster size K c  = 71). Higher baseline GMD correlated with better TSTH improvement at 1 year after Vim RS (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient = 0.002). Routine baseline structural neuroimaging predicts TSTH improvement 1 year after Vim RS. The relevant anatomical area is the right visual association cortex (BA 18, V2). The question whether visual areas should be included in the targeting remains open.

  11. Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ielsch, G.

    2001-01-01

    Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

  12. MEG reveals a fast pathway from somatosensory cortex to occipital areas via posterior parietal cortex in a blind subject

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ioannides, Andreas A; Liu, Lichan; Poghosyan, Vahe

    2013-01-01

    magnetoencephalography (MEG) data recorded from one congenitally blind and two sighted subjects after stimulation of the left and right median nerves at three intensities: below sensory threshold, above sensory threshold and above motor threshold; the last sufficient to produce thumb twitching. We identified...... reproducible brain responses in the primary somatosensory (S1) and motor (M1) cortices at around 20 ms post-stimulus, which were very similar in sighted and blind subjects. Time-frequency analysis revealed strong 45-70 Hz activity at latencies of 20-50 ms in S1 and M1, and posterior parietal cortex Brodmann...... of information through this pathway occurred in stages characterized by convergence of activations into specific cortical regions. In sighted subjects, no linked activity was found that led from the somatosensory to the visual cortex through any of the studied brain regions. These results provide the first...

  13. Broca's region and Visual Word Form Area activation differ during a predictive Stroop task

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wallentin, Mikkel; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Skakkebæk, Anne

    2015-01-01

    displayed in green or red (incongruent vs congruent colors). One of the colors, however, was presented three times as often as the other, making it possible to study both congruency and frequency effects independently. Auditory stimuli saying “GREEN” or “RED” had the same distribution, making it possible...... to study frequency effects across modalities. We found significant behavioral effects of both incongruency and frequency. A significant effect (p effect of frequency was observed and no interaction. Conjoined effects of incongruency...... and frequency were found in parietal regions as well as in the Visual Word Form Area (VWFA). No interaction between perceptual modality and frequency was found in VWFA suggesting that the region is not strictly visual. These findings speak against a strong version of the prediction error processing hypothesis...

  14. NOAA ESRI Grid - seafloor hardbottom occurrence predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents hard bottom occurrence predictions from a spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This model builds upon the...

  15. NOAA ESRI Grid - depth uncertainty predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch bathymetry model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth uncertainty predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  16. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird diversity in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird diversity predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived from...

  17. TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IN 3013 CONTAINERS IN K AREA MATERIAL STORAGE (KAMS) FACILITY USING REGRESSION METHODS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, N

    2008-01-01

    3013 containers are designed in accordance with the DOE-STD-3013-2004. These containers are qualified to store plutonium (Pu) bearing materials such as PuO2 for 50 years. DOT shipping packages such as the 9975 are used to store the 3013 containers in the K-Area Material Storage (KAMS) facility at Savannah River Site (SRS). DOE-STD-3013-2004 requires that a comprehensive surveillance program be set up to ensure that the 3013 container design parameters are not violated during the long term storage. To ensure structural integrity of the 3013 containers, thermal analyses using finite element models were performed to predict the contents and component temperatures for different but well defined parameters such as storage ambient temperature, PuO 2 density, fill heights, weights, and thermal loading. Interpolation is normally used to calculate temperatures if the actual parameter values are different from the analyzed values. A statistical analysis technique using regression methods is proposed to develop simple polynomial relations to predict temperatures for the actual parameter values found in the containers. The analysis shows that regression analysis is a powerful tool to develop simple relations to assess component temperatures

  18. The predictive value of self-rated health in the presence of subjective memory complaints on permanent nursing home placement in elderly primary care patients over 4-year follow-up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anni Brit Sternhagen; Siersma, Volkert Dirk; Waldemar, Gunhild

    2013-01-01

    self-rated health (SRH) predicts nursing home (NH) placement; subjective memory complaints (SMC) too. However, the predictive value of SRH in the presence of SMC is unclear.......self-rated health (SRH) predicts nursing home (NH) placement; subjective memory complaints (SMC) too. However, the predictive value of SRH in the presence of SMC is unclear....

  19. Subjectivity in Education and Health: Research Notes on School Learning Area and Physical Education in Mental Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezerra, Marilia; da Costa, Jonatas Maia

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of two studies researching the theory of subjectivity from a cultural-historical perspective. The studies are situated in the fields of education and health and are conducted using Qualitative Epistemology. The first study discusses the pathological movement problems of learning disabilities in Brazilian schools and…

  20. Area and depth of surfactant-induced corneal injury predicts extent of subsequent ocular responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jester, J V; Petroll, W M; Bean, J; Parker, R D; Carr, G J; Cavanagh, H D; Maurer, J K

    1998-12-01

    To correlate area and depth of initial corneal injury induced by surfactants of differing type and irritant properties with corneal responses and outcome in the same animals over time by using in vivo confocal microscopy (CM). Six groups of six adult rabbits were treated with anionic, cationic, and nonionic surfactants that caused different levels of ocular irritation. Test materials included slight irritants: 5% sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS), polyoxyethylene glycol monoalkyl ether (POE), and 5% 3-isotridecyloxypropyl-bis(polyoxyethylene) ammonium chloride (ITDOP); mild irritants: 5% 3-decyloxypropyl-bis(polyoxyethylene) amine (DOP) and sodium linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS); and a moderate irritant: a proprietary detergent (DTRGT). Ten microliters surfactant were directly applied to the cornea of one eye of each rabbit. Ten untreated rabbits served as control subjects. Area and depth of initial injury was determined by using in vivo CM to measure epithelial thickness, epithelial cell size, corneal thickness, and depth of stromal injury in four corneal regions at 3 hours and at day 1. Area and depth of corneal responses to injury were evaluated at various times from days 3 through 35 by macroscopic grading and quantitative confocal microscopy through-focusing (CMTF). In vivo CM revealed corneal injury with slight irritants to be restricted to the epithelium, whereas the mild and moderate irritants caused complete epithelial cell loss with increasing anterior stromal damage: DOP < LAS < DTRGT. With the slight ocular irritants there was little or no change in corneal thickness or the CMTF intensity profiles. Three hours after treatment, mild and moderate ocular irritants caused a significant increase in corneal thickness, which peaked at day 1 with DOP (483.3+/-80.1 microm) and LAS (572.3+/-60.0 microm) and day 3 with DTRGT (601.4+/-68.7 microm); returning to normal (similar to control values) by day 7 with DOP and day 35 with LAS and DTRGT. The CMTF intensity

  1. Using ANN and EPR models to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in urban area of Tabriz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Shakerkhatibi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Forecasting of air pollutants has become a popular topic of environmental research today. For this purpose, the artificial neural network (AAN technique is widely used as a reliable method for forecasting air pollutants in urban areas. On the other hand, the evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR model has recently been used as a forecasting tool in some environmental issues. In this research, we compared the ability of these models to forecast carbon monoxide (CO concentrations in the urban area of Tabriz city. Methods: The dataset of CO concentrations measured at the fixed stations operated by the East Azerbaijan Environmental Office along with meteorological data obtained from the East Azerbaijan Meteorological Bureau from March 2007 to March 2013, were used as input for the ANN and EPR models. Results: Based on the results, the performance of ANN is more reliable in comparison with EPR. Using the ANN model, the correlation coefficient values at all monitoring stations were calculated above 0.85. Conversely, the R2 values for these stations were obtained <0.41 using the EPR model. Conclusion: The EPR model could not overcome the nonlinearities of input data. However, the ANN model displayed more accurate results compared to the EPR. Hence, the ANN models are robust tools for predicting air pollutant concentrations.

  2. Indoor Radon Concentration Related to Different Radon Areas and Indoor Radon Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhásová Šenitková, Ingrid; Šál, Jiří

    2017-12-01

    Indoor radon has been observed in the buildings at areas with different radon risk potential. Preventive measures are based on control of main potential radon sources (soil gas, building material and supplied water) to avoid building of new houses above recommended indoor radon level 200 Bq/m3. Radon risk (index) estimation of individual building site bedrock in case of new house siting and building protection according technical building code are obligatory. Remedial actions in buildings built at high radon risk areas were carried out principally by unforced ventilation and anti-radon insulation. Significant differences were found in the level of radon concentration between rooms where radon reduction techniques were designed and those where it was not designed. The mathematical model based on radon exhalation from soil has been developed to describe the physical processes determining indoor radon concentration. The model is focused on combined radon diffusion through the slab and advection through the gap from sub-slab soil. In this model, radon emanated from building materials is considered not having a significant contribution to indoor radon concentration. Dimensional analysis and Gauss-Newton nonlinear least squares parametric regression were used to simplify the problem, identify essential input variables and find parameter values. The presented verification case study is introduced for real buildings with respect to various underground construction types. Presented paper gives picture of possible mathematical approach to indoor radon concentration prediction.

  3. Identification and Prediction of Large Pedestrian Flow in Urban Areas Based on a Hybrid Detection Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaisheng Zhang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, population density has grown quickly with the increasing acceleration of urbanization. At the same time, overcrowded situations are more likely to occur in populous urban areas, increasing the risk of accidents. This paper proposes a synthetic approach to recognize and identify the large pedestrian flow. In particular, a hybrid pedestrian flow detection model was constructed by analyzing real data from major mobile phone operators in China, including information from smartphones and base stations (BS. With the hybrid model, the Log Distance Path Loss (LDPL model was used to estimate the pedestrian density from raw network data, and retrieve information with the Gaussian Progress (GP through supervised learning. Temporal-spatial prediction of the pedestrian data was carried out with Machine Learning (ML approaches. Finally, a case study of a real Central Business District (CBD scenario in Shanghai, China using records of millions of cell phone users was conducted. The results showed that the new approach significantly increases the utility and capacity of the mobile network. A more reasonable overcrowding detection and alert system can be developed to improve safety in subway lines and other hotspot landmark areas, such as the Bundle, People’s Square or Disneyland, where a large passenger flow generally exists.

  4. Optimal recall from bounded metaplastic synapses: predicting functional adaptations in hippocampal area CA3.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Savin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A venerable history of classical work on autoassociative memory has significantly shaped our understanding of several features of the hippocampus, and most prominently of its CA3 area, in relation to memory storage and retrieval. However, existing theories of hippocampal memory processing ignore a key biological constraint affecting memory storage in neural circuits: the bounded dynamical range of synapses. Recent treatments based on the notion of metaplasticity provide a powerful model for individual bounded synapses; however, their implications for the ability of the hippocampus to retrieve memories well and the dynamics of neurons associated with that retrieval are both unknown. Here, we develop a theoretical framework for memory storage and recall with bounded synapses. We formulate the recall of a previously stored pattern from a noisy recall cue and limited-capacity (and therefore lossy synapses as a probabilistic inference problem, and derive neural dynamics that implement approximate inference algorithms to solve this problem efficiently. In particular, for binary synapses with metaplastic states, we demonstrate for the first time that memories can be efficiently read out with biologically plausible network dynamics that are completely constrained by the synaptic plasticity rule, and the statistics of the stored patterns and of the recall cue. Our theory organises into a coherent framework a wide range of existing data about the regulation of excitability, feedback inhibition, and network oscillations in area CA3, and makes novel and directly testable predictions that can guide future experiments.

  5. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Sato, H.; Koketsu, K.; Umeda, Y.; Iwata, T.; Kasahara, K.

    2003-12-01

    Introduction: After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Japanese government increased its focus and funding of earthquake hazards evaluation, studies of man-made structures integrity, and emergency response planning in the major urban centers. A new agency, the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture (MEXT) has started a five-year program titled as Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas (abbreviated to Dai-dai-toku in Japanese) since 2002. The project includes four programs: I. Regional characterization of the crust in metropolitan areas for prediction of strong ground motion. II. Significant improvement of seismic performance of structure. III. Advanced disaster management system. IV. Investigation of earthquake disaster mitigation research results. We will present the results from the first program conducted in 2002 and 2003. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion: A long-term goal is to produce map of reliable estimations of strong ground motion. This requires accurate determination of ground motion response, which includes a source process, an effect of propagation path, and near surface response. The new five-year project was aimed to characterize the "source" and "propagation path" in the Kanto (Tokyo) region and Kinki (Osaka) region. The 1923 Kanto Earthquake is one of the important targets to be addressed in the project. The proximity of the Pacific and Philippine Sea subducting plates requires study of the relationship between earthquakes and regional tectonics. This project focuses on identification and geometry of: 1) Source faults, 2) Subducting plates and mega-thrust faults, 3) Crustal structure, 4) Seismogenic zone, 5) Sedimentary basins, 6) 3D velocity properties We have conducted a series of seismic reflection and refraction experiment in the Kanto region. In 2002 we have completed to deploy seismic profiling lines in the Boso peninsula (112 km) and the

  6. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  7. Subjective but Not Actigraphy-Defined Sleep Predicts Next-Day Fatigue in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Prospective Daily Diary Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Charlotte; Wearden, Alison J; Fairclough, Gillian; Emsley, Richard A; Kyle, Simon D

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed to (1) examine the relationship between subjective and actigraphy-defined sleep, and next-day fatigue in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS); and (2) investigate the potential mediating role of negative mood on this relationship. We also sought to examine the effect of presleep arousal on perceptions of sleep. Twenty-seven adults meeting the Oxford criteria for CFS and self-identifying as experiencing sleep difficulties were recruited to take part in a prospective daily diary study, enabling symptom capture in real time over a 6-day period. A paper diary was used to record nightly subjective sleep and presleep arousal. Mood and fatigue symptoms were rated four times each day. Actigraphy was employed to provide objective estimations of sleep duration and continuity. Multilevel modelling revealed that subjective sleep variables, namely sleep quality, efficiency, and perceiving sleep to be unrefreshing, predicted following-day fatigue levels, with poorer subjective sleep related to increased fatigue. Lower subjective sleep efficiency and perceiving sleep as unrefreshing predicted reduced variance in fatigue across the following day. Negative mood on waking partially mediated these relationships. Increased presleep cognitive and somatic arousal predicted self-reported poor sleep. Actigraphy-defined sleep, however, was not found to predict following-day fatigue. For the first time we show that nightly subjective sleep predicts next-day fatigue in CFS and identify important factors driving this relationship. Our data suggest that sleep specific interventions, targeting presleep arousal, perceptions of sleep and negative mood on waking, may improve fatigue in CFS. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  8. Assessing the Implementation Fidelity of a School-Based Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility Program in Physical Education and Other Subject Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartí, Amparo; Liops-Goig, Ramon; Wright, Paul M.

    2018-01-01

    Purpose: The Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility (TPSR) model was developed to foster responsibility and teach life skills that transfer to various settings. The purpose of this study was to assess the implementation fidelity of a school-based TPSR program in physical education and other subject areas. Method: Systematic observation was…

  9. Genotoxic differences by sex in nasal epithelium and blood leukocytes in subjects residing in a highly polluted area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fortoul, T.I.; Valverde, M.; Lopez, M.C.; Avila-Costa, M.R.; Avila-Casado, M.C.; Mussali-Galante, P.; Gonzalez-Villalva, A.; Rojas, E.; Ostrosky-Shejet, P.

    2004-01-01

    We describe differences by sex in genotoxic damage found in a population of medical students exposed to a highly oxidative atmosphere, compared with a control group, measured by the single-cell gel electrophoresis assay and histological changes in nasal epithelium smears. Cells were obtained from the nasal epithelium and blood leukocytes. Higher DNA damage in nasal cells and leukocytes was found in males compared to females and control subjects. The percentage of squamous metaplastic changes in the nasal epithelium was also higher in males compared with females and controls. The commutation of normal nasal epithelium by squamous cells might modify its protective function in the nose, increasing the risk of damage to the lower respiratory tract. Although, as medical students, males and females were exposed to the same environment and activity patterns, male genotoxicity damage was higher in control and exposed subjects. More research should be done in order to identify direct or indirect sexual hormone intervention

  10. Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fine, Daniel H; Markowitz, Kenneth; Fairlie, Karen; Tischio-Bereski, Debbie; Ferrandiz, Javier; Godboley, Dipti; Furgang, David; Gunsolley, John; Best, Al

    2014-01-01

    Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL) in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa), the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF). Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; p<0.01). MIP-1α was elevated 13-fold, 6 months prior to BL. When MIP-1α levels were set at 40 pg/ml, 98% of healthy sites were below that level (Specificity); whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity), with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; p<0.0001; 95% C.I. = 42.5-52.7). MIP-1α consistently showed elevated levels as a biomarker for BL in both saliva and GCF, 6 months prior to BL. MIP-1α continues to demonstrate its strong candidacy as a diagnostic biomarker for both subject and site vulnerability to BL.

  11. Macrophage inflammatory protein-1α shows predictive value as a risk marker for subjects and sites vulnerable to bone loss in a longitudinal model of aggressive periodontitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel H Fine

    Full Text Available Improved diagnostics remains a fundamental goal of biomedical research. This study was designed to assess cytokine biomarkers that could predict bone loss (BL in localized aggressive periodontitis. 2,058 adolescents were screened. Two groups of 50 periodontally healthy adolescents were enrolled in the longitudinal study. One group had Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans (Aa, the putative pathogen, while the matched cohort did not. Cytokine levels were assessed in saliva and gingival crevicular fluid (GCF. Participants were sampled, examined, and radiographed every 6 months for 2-3 years. Disease was defined as radiographic evidence of BL. Saliva and GCF was collected at each visit, frozen, and then tested retrospectively after detection of BL. Sixteen subjects with Aa developed BL. Saliva from Aa-positive and Aa-negative healthy subjects was compared to subjects who developed BL. GCF was collected from 16 subjects with BL and from another 38 subjects who remained healthy. GCF from BL sites in the 16 subjects was compared to healthy sites in these same subjects and to healthy sites in subjects who remained healthy. Results showed that cytokines in saliva associated with acute inflammation were elevated in subjects who developed BL (i.e., MIP-1α MIP-1β IL-α, IL-1β and IL-8; p<0.01. MIP-1α was elevated 13-fold, 6 months prior to BL. When MIP-1α levels were set at 40 pg/ml, 98% of healthy sites were below that level (Specificity; whereas, 93% of sites with BL were higher (Sensitivity, with comparable Predictive Values of 98%; p<0.0001; 95% C.I. = 42.5-52.7. MIP-1α consistently showed elevated levels as a biomarker for BL in both saliva and GCF, 6 months prior to BL. MIP-1α continues to demonstrate its strong candidacy as a diagnostic biomarker for both subject and site vulnerability to BL.

  12. Predicted high-water elevations for selected flood events at the Albert Pike Recreation Area, Ouachita National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.A. Marion

    2012-01-01

    The hydraulic characteristics are determined for the June 11, 2010, flood on the Little Missouri River at the Albert Pike Recreation Area in Arkansas. These characteristics are then used to predict the high-water elevations for the 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood events in the Loop B, C, and D Campgrounds of the recreation area. The peak discharge and related...

  13. Family differences in equations for predicting biomass and leaf area in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii).

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. St. Clair

    1993-01-01

    Logarithmic regression equations were developed to predict component biomass and leaf area for an 18-yr-old genetic test of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco var. menziesii) based on stem diameter or cross-sectional sapwood area. Equations did not differ among open-pollinated families in slope, but intercepts...

  14. A Geometrical-based Vertical Gain Correction for Signal Strength Prediction of Downtilted Base Station Antennas in Urban Areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2012-01-01

    -based extension to standard empirical path loss prediction models can give quite reasonable accuracy in predicting the signal strength from tilted base station antennas in small urban macro-cells. Our evaluation is based on measurements on several sectors in a 2.6 GHz Long Term Evolution (LTE) cellular network......, with electrical antenna downtilt in the range from 0 to 10 degrees, as well as predictions based on ray-tracing and 3D building databases covering the measurement area. Although the calibrated ray-tracing predictions are highly accurate compared with the measured data, the combined LOS/NLOS COST-WI model...

  15. Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

    2017-10-27

    The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

  16. Testing and intercomparison of model predictions of radionuclide migration from a hypothetical area source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, R.S.; Yu, C.; Zeevaert, T.; Olyslaegers, G.; Amado, V.; Setlow, L.W.; Waggitt, P.W.

    2008-01-01

    This work was carried out as part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS program. One aim of the work was to develop scenarios for testing computer models designed for simulating radionuclide migration in the environment, and to use these scenarios for testing the models and comparing predictions from different models. This paper presents the results of the development and testing of a hypothetical area source of NORM waste/residue using two complex computer models and one screening model. There are significant differences in the methods used to model groundwater flow between the complex models. The hypothetical source was used because of its relative simplicity and because of difficulties encountered in finding comprehensive, well-validated data sets for real sites. The source consisted of a simple repository of uniform thickness, with 1 Bq g -1 of uranium-238 ( 238 U) (in secular equilibrium with its decay products) distributed uniformly throughout the waste. These approximate real situations, such as engineered repositories, waste rock piles, tailings piles and landfills. Specification of the site also included the physical layout, vertical stratigraphic details, soil type for each layer of material, precipitation and runoff details, groundwater flow parameters, and meteorological data. Calculations were carried out with and without a cover layer of clean soil above the waste, for people working and living at different locations relative to the waste. The predictions of the two complex models showed several differences which need more detailed examination. The scenario is available for testing by other modelers. It can also be used as a planning tool for remediation work or for repository design, by changing the scenario parameters and running the models for a range of different inputs. Further development will include applying models to real scenarios and integrating environmental impact assessment methods with the safety assessment tools currently

  17. Predictability and Spatial Characteristics of New-York-City-Area Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, C.; Horton, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    The origins, characteristics, and predictability of extreme heat waves in the Northeast U.S. are simultaneously examined at multiple scales, using hourly observational data from 1948-2014 and focusing in particular on the region surrounding New York City. A novel definition of heat waves - incorporating both temperature and moisture at hourly resolution - is used to identify 3-to-5-day heat waves whose dynamics are then analyzed from 3 weeks prior to 3 weeks subsequent to the event. Inter-event differences in dynamics such as the strength and position of geopotential-height anomalies; the strength, persistence, and orientation of sea breezes; and the dominant 850-hPa wind azimuth, all of which are filtered via local terrain and land-use to create differences in conditions between events at specific locations. In particular, using composite maps and back trajectories, they are found to play an important role in creating mesoscale differences in low-level moisture content, from one side of the metropolitan area to the other. Evidence is presented supporting the influence of coastline orientation in explaining the differences in the relationships between wind azimuth and temperature & moisture advection between New York City proper and northern New Jersey. Self-organizing maps are employed to classify heat waves based on the small-scale differences in temperature and moisture between events, and the results of this classification are then used in correlations with synoptic- and hemispheric-scale geopotential-height anomalies. Considerable predictability of event type on the small-scale (as well as occurrence of a heat wave of any kind) is found, originating primarily from central Pacific and western Atlantic SSTs.

  18. Measurement of Gamma Radioactivity in a Group of Control Subjects from the Stockholm Area During 1959-1963

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, I Oe; Nilsson, I; Eckerstig, K

    1963-08-15

    Repeated measurements of the gamma radioactivity in a group of control subjects have been made since June 1959, using a whole body counter scintillation spectrometer. The body contents of cesium-137 and potassium-40 and their trends with time have been determined. The cesium-137 values have been compared with the results from measurements of the fallout rate of cesium-137 and the concentration of cesium-137 in milk. The control group study was carried out to obtain information about the gamma radioactivity situation in the general population. Such an investigation is necessary if one wants to measure occupational contamination at low levels.

  19. Regional-scale Predictions of Agricultural N Losses in an Area with a High Livestock Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Grignani

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The quantification of the N losses in territories characterised by intensive animal stocking is of primary importance. The development of simulation models coupled to a GIS, or of simple environmental indicators, is strategic to suggest the best specific management practices. The aims of this work were: a to couple a GIS to a simulation model in order to predict N losses; b to estimate leaching and gaseous N losses from a territory with intensive livestock farming; c to derive a simplified empirical metamodel from the model output that could be used to rank the relative importance of the variables which influence N losses and to extend the results to homogeneous situations. The work was carried out in a 7773 ha area in the Western Po plain in Italy. This area was chosen because it is characterised by intensive animal husbandry and might soon be included in the nitrate vulnerable zones. The high N load, the shallow water table and the coarse type of sub-soil sediments contribute to the vulnerability to N leaching. A CropSyst simulation model was coupled to a GIS, to account for the soil surface N budget. A linear multiple regression approach was used to describe the influence of a series of independent variables on the N leaching, the N gaseous losses (including volatilisation and denitrification and on the sum of the two. Despite the fact that the available GIS was very detailed, a great deal of information necessary to run the model was lacking. Further soil measurements concerning soil hydrology, soil nitrate content and water table depth proved very valuable to integrate the data contained in the GIS in order to produce reliable input for the model. The results showed that the soils influence both the quantity and the pathways of the N losses to a great extent. The ratio between the N losses and the N supplied varied between 20 and 38%. The metamodel shows that manure input always played the most important role in determining the N losses

  20. Regional-scale Predictions of Agricultural N Losses in an Area with a High Livestock Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Sacco

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantification of the N losses in territories characterised by intensive animal stocking is of primary importance. The development of simulation models coupled to a GIS, or of simple environmental indicators, is strategic to suggest the best specific management practices. The aims of this work were: a to couple a GIS to a simulation model in order to predict N losses; b to estimate leaching and gaseous N losses from a territory with intensive livestock farming; c to derive a simplified empirical metamodel from the model output that could be used to rank the relative importance of the variables which influence N losses and to extend the results to homogeneous situations. The work was carried out in a 7773 ha area in the Western Po plain in Italy. This area was chosen because it is characterised by intensive animal husbandry and might soon be included in the nitrate vulnerable zones. The high N load, the shallow water table and the coarse type of sub-soil sediments contribute to the vulnerability to N leaching. A CropSyst simulation model was coupled to a GIS, to account for the soil surface N budget. A linear multiple regression approach was used to describe the influence of a series of independent variables on the N leaching, the N gaseous losses (including volatilisation and denitrification and on the sum of the two. Despite the fact that the available GIS was very detailed, a great deal of information necessary to run the model was lacking. Further soil measurements concerning soil hydrology, soil nitrate content and water table depth proved very valuable to integrate the data contained in the GIS in order to produce reliable input for the model. The results showed that the soils influence both the quantity and the pathways of the N losses to a great extent. The ratio between the N losses and the N supplied varied between 20 and 38%. The metamodel shows that manure input always played the most important role in determining the N losses

  1. The modulation of venlafaxine on cortical activation of language area in healthy subjects with fMRI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Qi; Liu, Yan; Li, Chun-Yong; Song, Xue-Zhu; Wang, Jun; Han, Li-Xin; Bai, Hong-Min

    2012-10-01

    Previous studies have shown that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, activators of the cortex, apparently improved language functional recovery after brain damage rather than simply affective disorders. Our aim was to determine whether venlafaxine (an agonist of both norepinephrine and 5-hydroxytryptamine) could modulate language cortex function. A double-blind, crossover, randomized design was used to compare two 7-day treatment sessions with either venlafaxine (75 mg per day) or placebo. A functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment and two language function tests were performed on eight healthy males (mean age, 28.25 ± 3.15 years) at the end of each session, i.e., study entry, after venlafaxine, and after placebo (days 0, 7, and 18). Hyperactivation (venlafaxine minus placebo >0) or hypoactivation (placebo minus venlafaxine >0) by venlaxafine was assessed on the basis of the activation-baseline contrast. The naming score (P gyrus frontalis medius and the bilateral fusiform gyrus and the bilateral outer occipital lobes, (2) hyperactivation was observed in the adjoining area of posterior upper Broca area and premotor area in the dominant hemisphere in venlafaxine session (after venlafaxine), (3) the hyperactivation of the left gyrus frontalis medius on fMRI and the increase in naming test score were positively correlated, and (4) by contrast, we observed hypoactivation in the temporo-parieto-occipital region in venlafaxine session (after venlafaxine). This improvement may be related to increased phonics-related output in the frontal language cortex of the dominant hemisphere.

  2. Is this car looking at you? How anthropomorphism predicts fusiform face area activation when seeing cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, Simone; Brick, Timothy R; Müller, Barbara C N; Gallinat, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Anthropomorphism encompasses the attribution of human characteristics to non-living objects. In particular the human tendency to see faces in cars has long been noticed, yet its neural correlates are unknown. We set out to investigate whether the fusiform face area (FFA) is associated with seeing human features in car fronts, or whether, the higher-level theory of mind network (ToM), namely temporoparietal junction (TPJ) and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) show a link to anthropomorphism. Twenty participants underwent fMRI scanning during a passive car-front viewing task. We extracted brain activity from FFA, TPJ and MPFC. After the fMRI session participants were asked to spontaneously list adjectives that characterize each car front. Five raters judged the degree to which each adjective can be applied as a characteristic of human beings. By means of linear mixed models we found that the implicit tendency to anthropomorphize individual car fronts predicts FFA, but not TPJ or MPFC activity. The results point to an important role of FFA in the phenomenon of ascribing human attributes to non-living objects. Interestingly, brain regions that have been associated with thinking about beliefs and mental states of others (TPJ, MPFC) do not seem to be related to anthropomorphism of car fronts.

  3. Predicting subject-driven actions and sensory experience in a virtual world with relevance vector machine regression of fMRI data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Giancarlo; De Martino, Federico; Esposito, Fabrizio; Goebel, Rainer; Formisano, Elia

    2011-05-15

    In this work we illustrate the approach of the Maastricht Brain Imaging Center to the PBAIC 2007 competition, where participants had to predict, based on fMRI measurements of brain activity, subject driven actions and sensory experience in a virtual world. After standard pre-processing (slice scan time correction, motion correction), we generated rating predictions based on linear Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) learning from all brain voxels. Spatial and temporal filtering of the time series was optimized rating by rating. For some of the ratings (e.g. Instructions, Hits, Faces, Velocity), linear RVM regression was accurate and very consistent within and between subjects. For other ratings (e.g. Arousal, Valence) results were less satisfactory. Our approach ranked overall second. To investigate the role of different brain regions in ratings prediction we generated predictive maps, i.e. maps of the weighted contribution of each voxel to the predicted rating. These maps generally included (but were not limited to) "specialized" regions which are consistent with results from conventional neuroimaging studies and known functional neuroanatomy. In conclusion, Sparse Bayesian Learning models, such as RVM, appear to be a valuable approach to the multivariate regression of fMRI time series. The implementation of the Automatic Relevance Determination criterion is particularly suitable and provides a good generalization, despite the limited number of samples which is typically available in fMRI. Predictive maps allow disclosing multi-voxel patterns of brain activity that predict perceptual and behavioral subjective experience. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Development of a software for predicting the effects of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Lijuan; Chen Bo; Zhuo Weihai; Lu Shuyu

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To develop a new software system that can directly display the predicted results on an electronic map, in order to get a directly perceived understanding of the affected areas of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas. Methods: Three scenarios of events including spreading radioactive materials, dirty bomb attack, and explosion or arson attacks on the radiation facilities were assumed. Gaussian diffusion model was employed to predict the spread and deposition of radioactive pollutants, and both the internal and external doses were estimated for the representative person by using the corresponding dose conversion factors. Through integration of the computing system and Mapinfo geographic information system (GIS), the predicted results were visually displayed on the electronic maps of a city. Results: The new software system could visually display the predicted results on the electronic map of a city, and the predicted results were consistent with those calculated by the similar software Hotspot®. The deviation between this system and Hotspot was less than 0.2 km for predicted isoplethic curves of dose rate downwind. Conclusions: The newly developed software system is of the practical value in predicting the effects of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas. (authors)

  5. Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinghui Li

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”. However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1 model, and build a new GM (1,1 model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1 model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

  6. Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

    2017-01-01

    The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006

  7. The perceptions of teachers and principals toward providing additional compensation to teachers in high-need subject areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longing, Jeffrey Lucian

    The purpose of this study was to determine possible differences in the perceptions of teachers teaching in high-need areas (i.e., math, science, special education, etc.) and teachers not teaching in high-need areas, (i.e., business education, physical education, etc.) as defined by the states of Arkansas and Louisiana, regarding higher compensation for high-need teachers. In addition, possible perception differences among principals and teachers were determined. The independent variables consisted of gender, position held, years of certified experience, and certification areas. The dependent variable was the perceptions of the participants on providing higher compensation for high-need teachers in order to attract and retain them. The data for all variables were collected using the Teacher Compensation Survey. The sample for this study was limited to teachers, grades 9 through 12, and principals of public high schools in south Arkansas and north Louisiana. Forty-four school districts in south Arkansas (Arkansas Department of Education, 2008a) and north Louisiana (Louisiana Department of Education, 2008a) met the criteria for this study. Twenty-two superintendents gave permission for their districts to participate in the research. A sample of 849 teachers and 38 principals were identified in these districts. Surveys were returned from 350 teachers, creating a 41% response rate. When the 31 principals that returned surveys were added to the total population, the response rate increased to 43% with 381 of the 887 surveyed responding. However, 42 of the teachers and two of the principals skipped some of the questions on the survey and were not included in the study. The researcher used a One-Way ANOVA and independent t-tests to determine the presence of statistical differences at the .05 level. The data showed that most math and science teachers agreed that high-need teachers should be compensated at a higher rate than teachers not teaching in high-need areas. The data

  8. Predicting changes in posttraumatic growth and subjective well-being among breast cancer survivors: the role of social support and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Meghan H; Sabiston, Catherine M; Wrosch, Carsten

    2014-01-01

    Social support is theoretically expected to be positively associated with posttraumatic growth (PTG) and subjective well-being, and stress is expected to be positively associated with PTG and negatively associated with subjective well-being among breast cancer (BC) survivors. However, empirical evidence is mixed, predominantly cross-sectional, and few studies have examined the unique effects of these predictors on positive changes in psychological experiences post cancer diagnosis and systemic treatment. This study examined both general and BC-specific social support and stress as predictors of change in PTG and subjective well-being among BC survivors. Women (N = 173, Mage  = 55.40, SD = 10.99) who had recently finished treatment completed demographic and treatment measures at baseline (T1); general and cancer-specific social support and stress, PTG and subjective well-being at 3 months (T2); and PTG and subjective well-being again at 6 months (T3). Longitudinal predictors of change in PTG and subjective well-being were examined using hierarchical multiple regression. The BC-specific social support (β = .12) and stress (cancer worry; β = .10) predicted increasing levels of PTG. Improvements in subjective well-being were predicted by higher levels of general social support (β = .21) and lower levels of general stress (β = -.59). There are distinct predictors of change in PTG and subjective well-being among BC survivors, supporting the distinction between the trauma-specific process of PTG and well-being. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Evaluating the utility of subjective effects measures for predicting product sampling, enrollment, and retention in a clinical trial of a smokeless tobacco product.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Richard J; Lindgren, Bruce R; Schneller, Liane M; Shields, Peter G; Hatsukami, Dorothy K

    2018-01-01

    Subjective effects of drugs, representing pharmacological and non-pharmacological effects, have been shown to be associated with future use and abuse. This also is the case for tobacco products and so measuring subjective effects, such as liking, satisfaction, and aversion, is crucial to gaining an understanding of consumer perception leading to increased use. This study examined the predictive validity of subjective drug and product effects with respect to product adoption. Smokers (N=151) were enrolled in Minneapolis, Columbus, and Buffalo. Participants were shown two snus products (Camel Snus Winterchill and Robust), asked to try each of the products for 5min and to rate them using the Product Evaluation Scale (PES) and Drug Effects Questionnaire (DEQ). This was followed by a one-week use period of their preferred product and those who used at least 1 unit of Camel Snus per day (or at least 7 pouches total) were eligible to enroll in the Clinical Trial Phase assessing the impact of complete switching or dual use with smoking. Key outcomes for this study were product evaluation, extent of product use, and Clinical Trial enrollment. We noted no relationships between participant characteristics such as gender, age, prior smokeless use, baseline cigarettes per day (CPD), or PES and DEQ scores with any of these outcome variables. Subjective effects were weak predictors of product use, which totaled approximately 3units of snus per day. Regardless of product, it appears that PES and DEQ ratings were uniformly poor predictors of trial enrollment and retention, though they do predict the amount of snus used during the sampling phase. Findings indicate that while subjective effects predict product preference in the short-term, they did not consistently predict extent of use or enrollment in the trial, suggesting that these initial measures have limited implications for long-term behavior. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

    2015-03-01

    We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. Prognostic factors in patients with advanced cancer: use of the patient-generated subjective global assessment in survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Lisa; Watanabe, Sharon; Fainsinger, Robin; Lau, Francis; Ghosh, Sunita; Quan, Hue; Atkins, Marlis; Fassbender, Konrad; Downing, G Michael; Baracos, Vickie

    2010-10-01

    To determine whether elements of a standard nutritional screening assessment are independently prognostic of survival in patients with advanced cancer. A prospective nested cohort of patients with metastatic cancer were accrued from different units of a Regional Palliative Care Program. Patients completed a nutritional screen on admission. Data included age, sex, cancer site, height, weight history, dietary intake, 13 nutrition impact symptoms, and patient- and physician-reported performance status (PS). Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Concordance statistics (c-statistics) were used to test the predictive accuracy of models based on training and validation sets; a c-statistic of 0.5 indicates the model predicts the outcome as well as chance; perfect prediction has a c-statistic of 1.0. A training set of patients in palliative home care (n = 1,164) was used to identify prognostic variables. Primary disease site, PS, short-term weight change (either gain or loss), dietary intake, and dysphagia predicted survival in multivariate analysis (P statistics between predicted and observed responses for survival in the training set (0.90) and validation set (0.88; n = 603). The addition of weight change, dietary intake, and dysphagia did not further improve the c-statistic of the model. The c-statistic was also not altered by substituting physician-rated palliative PS for patient-reported PS. We demonstrate a high probability of concordance between predicted and observed survival for patients in distinct palliative care settings (home care, tertiary inpatient, ambulatory outpatient) based on patient-reported information.

  12. Prediction of functional overreaching from subjective fatigue and readiness to train after only 3 days of cycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Haaf, Twan; van Staveren, Selma; Oudenhoven, Erik; Piacentini, Maria F.; Meeusen, Romain; Roelands, Bart; Koenderman, Leo; Daanen, Hein A.M.; Foster Jr., Carl; De Koning, Jos J.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether monitoring of easily measurable stressors and symptoms can be used to distinguish early between acute fatigue (AF) and functional overreaching (FOR). Methods: The study included 30 subjects (11 female, 19 male; age 40.8 ± 10.8 y, VO2max 51.8 ± 6.3 mL kg-1 min-1) who

  13. Need for recovery from work related fatigue and its role in the development and prediction of subjective health complaints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sluiter, J.K; de Croon, E.M; Meijman, T.F.; Frings-Dresen, M.H.W.

    Aims: To present the available empirical evidence for the assumed position of the concept of work related fatigue as: (1) short term effect of the working day; and (2) an intermediate variable between work demands and the development of subjective health complaints and sickness absence. Methods:

  14. Predicting ecstasy use among young people at risk: a prospective study of initially ecstasy-naive subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervaeke, H.K.E.; Benschop, A.; van den Brink, W.; Korf, D.J.

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged ≥ 18 who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in

  15. Predicting ecstasy use among young people at risk: a prospective study of initially ecstasy-naive subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervaeke, Hylke K. E.; Benschop, Annemieke; van den Brink, Wim; Korf, Dirk J.

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged > or = 18 who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy

  16. Predicting Ecstasy Use among Young People at Risk: A Prospective Study of Initially Ecstasy-Naive Subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervaeke, Hylke K.E.; Benschop, Annemieke; Van Den Brink, Wim; Korf, Dirk J.

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged up to 18 years who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in the near future. After an 11- to…

  17. Wealth, justice and freedom: Objective and subjective measures predicting poor mental health in a study across eight countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Saskia; Velten, Julia; Neher, Torsten; Margraf, Jürgen

    2017-12-01

    Macro-level factors (MF) such as wealth, justice and freedom measured with objective country-level indicators (objective MF), for instance the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), have been investigated in relation to health and well-being, but rarely in connection with depression, anxiety and stress subsumed as poor mental health. Also, a combination of different objective MF and of how individuals perceive those MF (subjective MF) has not been taken into consideration. In the present study, we combined subjective and objective measures of wealth, justice and freedom and examined their relationship with poor mental health. Population-based interviews were conducted in France, Germany, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, U.K. and U.S.A. (n ≈ 1000 per country). GDP, GINI coefficient, Justice Index and Freedom Index were used as objective MF, whereas subjective MF were perceived wealth, justice and freedom measured at the individual level. Poor mental health was assessed as a combination of symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress. In a random-intercept-model, GINI coefficient and Freedom Index were significant positive country-level, and perceived wealth, justice, and freedom significant negative individual-level predictors of symptoms of poor mental health. Multiple subjective and objective MF should be combined to assess the macrosystem's relationship with poor mental health more precisely. The relationship between MF and poor mental health indicates that the macrosystem should be taken into account as relevant context for mental health problems, too.

  18. Wealth, justice and freedom: Objective and subjective measures predicting poor mental health in a study across eight countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Scholten

    2017-12-01

    Conclusion: Multiple subjective and objective MF should be combined to assess the macrosystem’s relationship with poor mental health more precisely. The relationship between MF and poor mental health indicates that the macrosystem should be taken into account as relevant context for mental health problems, too.

  19. Design of a test device for subjecting materials to high strain rates: with application in nuclear area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todesco, Sergio R.; Mucsi, Cristiano S.; Rossi, Jesualdo L., E-mail: sergio.todesco@usp.br, E-mail: csmucsi@ipen.br, E-mail: jelrossi@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    This paper presents a design of a device to gather characteristic data of materials subjected to high strain rates, this device named after the eminent English engineer Sir Bertram Hopkinson 'Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar', from here will be designated SHPB. More specifically, this work is inseparably linked to the development of packing for transportation of highly radioactive substances as a part to the general scope of a CAPES project in partnership with the CCTM Materials Department of IPEN, Institute of Energy and Nuclear Research, linked to the University of Sao Paulo. The development of the device is part of a scope, and collection of data necessary for the design and construction of this packing. The SHPB device can be divided into two parts, the first part concerning the mechanical design. The second, data collection that is indeed the challenging part of the device, and proper tests. The present paper, specifically, will only deals with the mechanical design of the device, importantly, divided into two parts, the size of the bars, which are the impact bar, the input bar, and the output bar, and the size of the impact device. The sizing of the bars involve knowledge of the concept of elastic waves in solid media for the length of the bars to serve as a wave-guide, which will cause a deformation of the specimen, and enables recording of these waves for data analysis. The impact device must be robust enough to produce the stress wave to deform the specimen, but not to plastically deform the bars, which have to continue throughout the test within the elastic range. (author)

  20. Design of a test device for subjecting materials to high strain rates: with application in nuclear area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todesco, Sergio R.; Mucsi, Cristiano S.; Rossi, Jesualdo L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a design of a device to gather characteristic data of materials subjected to high strain rates, this device named after the eminent English engineer Sir Bertram Hopkinson 'Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar', from here will be designated SHPB. More specifically, this work is inseparably linked to the development of packing for transportation of highly radioactive substances as a part to the general scope of a CAPES project in partnership with the CCTM Materials Department of IPEN, Institute of Energy and Nuclear Research, linked to the University of Sao Paulo. The development of the device is part of a scope, and collection of data necessary for the design and construction of this packing. The SHPB device can be divided into two parts, the first part concerning the mechanical design. The second, data collection that is indeed the challenging part of the device, and proper tests. The present paper, specifically, will only deals with the mechanical design of the device, importantly, divided into two parts, the size of the bars, which are the impact bar, the input bar, and the output bar, and the size of the impact device. The sizing of the bars involve knowledge of the concept of elastic waves in solid media for the length of the bars to serve as a wave-guide, which will cause a deformation of the specimen, and enables recording of these waves for data analysis. The impact device must be robust enough to produce the stress wave to deform the specimen, but not to plastically deform the bars, which have to continue throughout the test within the elastic range. (author)

  1. Limited Area Predictability: Is There A Limit To The Operational Usefulness of A Lam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesinger, F.

    The issue of the limited area predictability in the context of the operational experience of the Eta Model, driven by the LBCs of the NCEP global spectral (Avn) model, is examined. The traditional view is that "the contamination at the lateral boundaries ... limits the operational usefulness of the LAM beyond some forecast time range". In the case of the Eta this contamination consists not only of the lower resolution of the Avn LBCs and the much discussed mathematical "lateral boundary error", but also of the use of the LBCs of the previous Avn run, at 0000 and 1200 UTC estimated to amount to about an 8 h loss in accuracy. Looking for the signs of the Eta accuracy in relative terms falling behind that of the Avn we have examined the trend of the Eta vs Avn precipitation scores, the rms fits to raobs of the two models as a function of time, and the errors of these models at extended forecast times in placing the centers of major lows. In none of these efforts, some including forecasts out to 84 h, we were able to notice signs of the Eta accuracy being visibly affected by the inflow of the lateral boundary errors. It is therefore hypothesized that some of the Eta design features compensate for the increasing influence of the Avn LBC errors. Candidate features are discussed, with the eta coordinate being a contender to play a major role. This situation being possible for the pair of models discussed, existence of a general limit for the operational usefulness of a LAM seems questionable.

  2. Evaluation of PSA-age volume score in predicting prostate cancer in Chinese populationArticle Subject.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yi-Shuo; Wu, Xiao-Bo; Zhang, Ning; Jiang, Guang-Liang; Yu, Yang; Tong, Shi-Jun; Jiang, Hao-Wen; Mao, Shan-Hua; Na, Rong; Ding, Qiang

    2018-02-06

    This study was performed to evaluate prostate-specific antigen-age volume (PSA-AV) scores in predicting prostate cancer (PCa) in a Chinese biopsy population. A total of 2355 men who underwent initial prostate biopsy from January 2006 to November 2015 in Huashan Hospital were recruited in the current study. The PSA-AV scores were calculated and assessed together with PSA and PSA density (PSAD) retrospectively. Among 2133 patients included in the analysis, 947 (44.4%) were diagnosed with PCa. The mean age, PSA, and positive rates of digital rectal examination result and transrectal ultrasound result were statistically higher in men diagnosed with PCa (all P PSA-AV were 0.864 and 0.851, respectively, in predicting PCa in the entire population, both performed better than PSA (AUC = 0.805; P PSA-AV was more obvious in subgroup with PSA ranging from 2.0 ng ml-1 to 20.0 ng ml-1. A PSA-AV score of 400 had a sensitivity and specificity of 93.7% and 40.0%, respectively. In conclusion, the PSA-AV score performed equally with PSAD and was better than PSA in predicting PCa. This indicated that PSA-AV score could be a useful tool for predicting PCa in Chinese population.

  3. Ongoing activity in temporally coherent networks predicts intra-subject fluctuation of response time to sporadic executive control demands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozawa, Takayuki; Sugiura, Motoaki; Yokoyama, Ryoichi; Ihara, Mizuki; Kotozaki, Yuka; Miyauchi, Carlos Makoto; Kanno, Akitake; Kawashima, Ryuta

    2014-01-01

    Can ongoing fMRI BOLD signals predict fluctuations in swiftness of a person's response to sporadic cognitive demands? This is an important issue because it clarifies whether intrinsic brain dynamics, for which spatio-temporal patterns are expressed as temporally coherent networks (TCNs), have effects not only on sensory or motor processes, but also on cognitive processes. Predictivity has been affirmed, although to a limited extent. Expecting a predictive effect on executive performance for a wider range of TCNs constituting the cingulo-opercular, fronto-parietal, and default mode networks, we conducted an fMRI study using a version of the color-word Stroop task that was specifically designed to put a higher load on executive control, with the aim of making its fluctuations more detectable. We explored the relationships between the fluctuations in ongoing pre-trial activity in TCNs and the task response time (RT). The results revealed the existence of TCNs in which fluctuations in activity several seconds before the onset of the trial predicted RT fluctuations for the subsequent trial. These TCNs were distributed in the cingulo-opercular and fronto-parietal networks, as well as in perceptual and motor networks. Our results suggest that intrinsic brain dynamics in these networks constitute "cognitive readiness," which plays an active role especially in situations where information for anticipatory attention control is unavailable. Fluctuations in these networks lead to fluctuations in executive control performance.

  4. Extensions of Island Biogeography Theory predict the scaling of functional trait composition with habitat area and isolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Claire; Mouillot, David; Kulbicki, Michel; Gravel, Dominique

    2017-02-01

    The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species-area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body-size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large-sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body-size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  5. Concentration and correlations of perfluoroalkyl substances in whole blood among subjects from three different geographical areas in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cho, Chon Rae; Lam, Nguyen Hoang [College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Chonnam National University, Yeosu 550-749 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Byung Mann [Department of Preventive Medicine and Occupational Medicine, School of Medicine, Pusan National University, Yangsan 626-770 (Korea, Republic of); Kannan, Kurunthachalam [Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health and Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, State University of New York at Albany, Empire State Plaza PO Box 509, Albany, NY 12201-0509 (United States); Cho, Hyeon Seo, E-mail: hscho@jnu.ac.kr [College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, Chonnam National University, Yeosu 550-749 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    blood were found in Korea. • Gender was found to influence the concentrations of PFOA, PFNA, PFHxS and PFOSA. • Significant positive associations between PFAS levels and age of subjects were found. • Occupation was a determinant for PFNA and PFHxS concentrations.

  6. Concentration and correlations of perfluoroalkyl substances in whole blood among subjects from three different geographical areas in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Chon Rae; Lam, Nguyen Hoang; Cho, Byung Mann; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Cho, Hyeon Seo

    2015-01-01

    blood were found in Korea. • Gender was found to influence the concentrations of PFOA, PFNA, PFHxS and PFOSA. • Significant positive associations between PFAS levels and age of subjects were found. • Occupation was a determinant for PFNA and PFHxS concentrations

  7. Life prediction of simple structures subject to cyclic primary and secondary loading resulting in creep and platicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otter, N.R.; Jones, R.T.

    1979-01-01

    High temperature reactors are subject to cyclic mechanical and thermal loadings resulting from start up and shut down operations. The design must therefore guard against structural failure resulting from excessive deformation and creep-fatigue damage. Before any simplified inelastic analysis techniques can be applied, their validity needs to be examined under situations representative of the reactor. For this to be carried out it is necessary to determine the behaviour of components, initially geometrically simple, subject to loadings, cyclic primary and secondary in nature, which result in creep and plasticity. Beam-like structures have been investigated on a finite element basis with the aim of determining how cyclic plasticity, creep enhancement and plastic ratchetting vary in relationship with modified shakedown criteria, magnitude of loading and hold time. (orig.)

  8. Does psychological strengths and subjective well-being predicting parental involvement and problem solving among Malaysian and Indian students?

    OpenAIRE

    Khan, Aqeel; Ahmad, Roslee; Hamdan, Abdul Rahim; Mustaffa, Mohamed Sharif; Tahir, Lokman Mohd

    2014-01-01

    The present study examined the predictors of psychological strengths and subjective well-being for dealing with academic stress perceived by university engineering students. Sample of 400 Malaysian (N?=?180 boys and N?=?220 girls) age varies 18 to 25?years and 400 Indian students (N?=?240 boys and N?=?160 girls) age varies 18 to 25?years from public universities were participated. Quantitative method was used for data analysis. Findings shows that gender, religiosity and socioeconomic status ...

  9. Limited Sampling Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Statins: Reliability of a Single Time Point for AUC Prediction for Pravastatin and Simvastatin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, N R

    2016-02-01

    Statins are widely prescribed medicines and are also available in fixed dose combinations with other drugs to treat several chronic ailments. Given the safety issues associated with statins it may be important to assess feasibility of a single time concentration strategy for prediction of exposure (area under the curve; AUC). The peak concentration (Cmax) was used to establish relationship with AUC separately for pravastatin and simvastatin using published pharmacokinetic data. The regression equations generated for statins were used to predict the AUC values from various literature references. The fold difference of the observed divided by predicted values along with correlation coefficient (r) were used to judge the feasibility of the single time point approach. Both pravastatin and simvastatin showed excellent correlation of Cmax vs. AUC values with r value ≥ 0.9638 (pAUC predictions and >81% of the predicted values were in a narrower range of >0.75-fold but AUC values showed excellent correlation for pravastatin (r=0.9708, n=115; pAUC predictions. On the basis of the present work, it is feasible to develop a single concentration time point strategy that coincides with Cmax occurrence for both pravastatin and simvastatin from a therapeutic drug monitoring perspective. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  10. Allometric relationships predicting foliar biomass and leaf area:sapwood area ratio from tree height in five Costa Rican rain forest species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo-Alvarado, J C; McDowell, N G; Waring, R H

    2008-11-01

    We developed allometric equations to predict whole-tree leaf area (A(l)), leaf biomass (M(l)) and leaf area to sapwood area ratio (A(l):A(s)) in five rain forest tree species of Costa Rica: Pentaclethra macroloba (Willd.) Kuntze (Fabaceae/Mim), Carapa guianensis Aubl. (Meliaceae), Vochysia ferru-gi-nea Mart. (Vochysiaceae), Virola koshnii Warb. (Myristicaceae) and Tetragastris panamensis (Engl.) Kuntze (Burseraceae). By destructive analyses (n = 11-14 trees per species), we observed strong nonlinear allometric relationships (r(2) > or = 0.9) for predicting A(l) or M(l) from stem diameters or A(s) measured at breast height. Linear relationships were less accurate. In general, A(l):A(s) at breast height increased linearly with tree height except for Penta-clethra, which showed a negative trend. All species, however, showed increased total A(l) with height. The observation that four of the five species increased in A(l):A(s) with height is consistent with hypotheses about trade--offs between morphological and anatomical adaptations that favor efficient water flow through variation in the amount of leaf area supported by sapwood and those imposed by the need to respond quickly to light gaps in the canopy.

  11. EVALUATION AND PREDICTIVE METHODS OF EPIDEMICAL SITUATION IN THE AREA OF ACUTE ENTERIC INFECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malysh N.G.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Despite the fact, that nowadays acute intestinal infections (AII sick rate is decreasing, the aggravation of the epidemical situation is always there. Increased attention to AII caused by unpredictable epidemical rises of the AII diseases, which cannot be prevented without assessing the epidemical situation of these infections and forecasting of the levels of sick rate. However, developed mathematical methods of forecasting in most cases do not take into account the risk factors, also they are time-consuming and it is difficult to calculate them; and developed special computer programs, which predict infectious sick rates, are often in the lack in the institutions of sanitary-epidemiological service. An urgent problem for today is establishing of the most influential social and environmental factors, which can make a contribution to the spread of AII. The aim of this work was to improve the method of assessment and prediction of epidemic situation of AII by identifying the influence of climatic and demographic factors. Materials and methods. In order to determine the influence of meteorological and demographic factors on the epidemic process of acute intestinal infections the official reports of the State Sanitary and Epidemiological Service of Ukraine in Sumy region, the Department of Statistics, Sumy Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring have been studied. Results and discussion. The work on the evaluation of the epidemiological situation of the AII begins from collecting data, according to the AII sick rate. The main source of this information is the logbook of infectious diseases, which recorded all sick people that were found in the area. It is necessary to gather the initial information, calculate the sick rate and monthly distribution of AII cases on investigated area and evaluate the tendency. At the same time with accounting of AII cases on investigated territory, takes place a monitoring of air

  12. Can body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and waist-height ratio predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Liping

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is associated with metabolic risk factors. Body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR and waist-height ratio (WHtR are used to predict the risk of obesity related diseases. However, it has not been examined whether these four indicators can detect the clustering of metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects. Methods There are 772 Chinese subjects in the present study. Metabolic risk factors including high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and glucose intolerance were identified according to the criteria from WHO. All statistical analyses were performed separately according to sex by using the SPSS 12.0. Results BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values were all significantly associated with blood pressure, glucose, triglyceride and also with the number of metabolic risk factors in both male and female subjects (all of P Conclusion The BMI, waist circumference and WHtR values can similarly predict the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors in Chinese subjects.

  13. Using small area estimation and Lidar-derived variables for multivariate prediction of forest attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Mauro; Vicente Monleon; H. Temesgen

    2015-01-01

    Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have been successfully applied in forest inventories to provide reliable estimates for domains where the sample size is small (i.e. small areas). Previous studies have explored the use of either Area Level or Unit Level Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictors (EBLUPs) in a univariate framework, modeling each variable of interest...

  14. Metallogenetic prospecting prediction of volcanic rock type of uranium deposit in Pucheng Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Bin; Wang Yong

    1998-01-01

    Based on the metallogenetic geological conditions of Pucheng area, metallogenetic geological model existing and the information quality method, the logic vector length method and the logic vector length weighted method, some favorable geological variance are selected. The assessment model is set up and some favorable metallogenetic area are delineated according to the different contribution degrees of the geological variances to mineralization. By geological assessment in the favorable metallogenetic areas, it is considered that the favorable metallogenetic geological conditions exist in this areas, and there are prospecting prospective surroundings areas and glorious prospecting future were confirmed in the district

  15. Convergence on the Prediction of Ice Particle Mass and Projected Area in Ice Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Ice particle mass- and area-dimensional power law (henceforth m-D and A-D) relationships are building-blocks for formulating microphysical processes and optical properties in cloud and climate models, and they are critical for ice cloud remote sensing algorithms, affecting the retrieval accuracy. They can be estimated by (1) directly measuring the sizes, masses and areas of individual ice particles at ground-level and (2) using aircraft probes to simultaneously measure the ice water content (IWC) and ice particle size distribution. A third indirect method is to use observations from method 1 to develop an m-A relationship representing mean conditions in ice clouds. Owing to a tighter correlation (relative to m-D data), this m-A relationship can be used to estimate m from aircraft probe measurements of A. This has the advantage of estimating m at small sizes, down to 10 μm using the 2D-Sterio probe. In this way, 2D-S measurements of maximum dimension D can be related to corresponding estimates of m to develop ice cloud type and temperature dependent m-D expressions. However, these expressions are no longer linear in log-log space, but are slowly varying curves covering most of the size range of natural ice particles. This work compares all three of the above methods and demonstrates close agreement between them. Regarding (1), 4869 ice particles and corresponding melted hemispheres were measured during a field campaign to obtain D and m. Selecting only those unrimed habits that formed between -20°C and -40°C, the mean mass values for selected size intervals are within 35% of the corresponding masses predicted by the Method 3 curve based on a similar temperature range. Moreover, the most recent m-D expression based on Method 2 differs by no more than 50% with the m-D curve from Method 3. Method 3 appears to be the most accurate over the observed ice particle size range (10-4000 μm). An m-D/A-D scheme was developed by which self-consistent m-D and A-D power laws

  16. Hybrid ATDL-gamma distribution model for predicting area source acid gas concentrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jakeman, A J; Taylor, J A

    1985-01-01

    An air quality model is developed to predict the distribution of concentrations of acid gas in an urban airshed. The model is hybrid in character, combining reliable features of a deterministic ATDL-based model with statistical distributional approaches. The gamma distribution was identified from a range of distributional models as the best model. The paper shows that the assumptions of a previous hybrid model may be relaxed and presents a methodology for characterizing the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Results are demonstrated for the 98-percentile predictions of 24-h average data over annual periods at six monitoring sites. This percentile relates to the World Health Organization goal for acid gas concentrations.

  17. A Mathematical Method to Calculate Tumor Contact Surface Area: An Effective Parameter to Predict Renal Function after Partial Nephrectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Po-Fan; Wang, Yu-De; Huang, Chi-Ping; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Yang, Che-Rei; Chen, Guang-Heng; Chang, Chao-Hsiang

    2016-07-01

    We proposed a mathematical formula to calculate contact surface area between a tumor and renal parenchyma. We examined the applicability of using contact surface area to predict renal function after partial nephrectomy. We performed this retrospective study in patients who underwent partial nephrectomy between January 2012 and December 2014. Based on abdominopelvic computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, we calculated the contact surface area using the formula (2*π*radius*depth) developed by integral calculus. We then evaluated the correlation between contact surface area and perioperative parameters, and compared contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. (Radius/Exophytic/endophytic/Nearness to collecting system/Anterior/Location) score in predicting a reduction in renal function. Overall 35, 26 and 45 patients underwent partial nephrectomy with open, laparoscopic and robotic approaches, respectively. Mean ± SD contact surface area was 30.7±26.1 cm(2) and median (IQR) R.E.N.A.L. score was 7 (2.25). Spearman correlation analysis showed that contact surface area was significantly associated with estimated blood loss (p=0.04), operative time (p=0.04) and percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. score independently affected percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p contact surface area was a better independent predictor of a greater than 10% change in estimated glomerular filtration rate compared to R.E.N.A.L. score (AUC 0.86 vs 0.69). Using this simple mathematical method, contact surface area was associated with surgical outcomes. Compared to R.E.N.A.L. score, contact surface area was a better predictor of functional change after partial nephrectomy. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Evaluation of Airborne Remote Sensing Techniques for Predicting the Distribution of Energetic Compounds on Impact Areas

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graves, Mark R; Dove, Linda P; Jenkins, Thomas F; Bigl, Susan; Walsh, Marianne E; Hewitt, Alan D; Lambert, Dennis; Perron, Nancy; Ramsey, Charles; Gamey, Jeff; Beard, Les; Doll, William E; Magoun, Dale

    2007-01-01

    .... Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies were utilized to assist in the development of enhanced sampling strategies to better predict the landscape-scale distribution of energetic compounds...

  19. Effect of toe-spread-out exercise on hallux valgus angle and cross-sectional area of abductor hallucis muscle in subjects with hallux valgus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon-Hwan; Yi, Chung-Hwi; Weon, Jong-Hyuck; Cynn, Heon-Seock; Jung, Do-Young; Kwon, Oh-Yun

    2015-04-01

    [Purpose] This study investigated whether the toe-spread-out exercise affects the hallux valgus angle, the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle, and the hallux valgus angle during active abduction. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty-four subjects with hallux valgus were randomly assigned to orthosis and orthosis plus toe-spread-out exercise groups. The orthosis group wore the orthosis for 8 weeks, while the orthosis plus toe-spread-out group also performed the toe-spread-out exercise. The hallux valgus angle, the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle, and the hallux valgus angle during active abduction were measured initially and after 8 weeks by radiography and ultrasonography. [Results] While there were no significant changes in the three parameters in the orthosis group, there were significant differences in the orthosis plus toe-spread-out exercise group after 8 weeks. In addition there were significant differences in the three measures between the two groups. [Conclusion] The toe-spread-out exercise reduces the hallux valgus angle and hallux valgus angle during active abduction, and increases the cross-sectional area of the abductor hallucis muscle. The toe-spread-out exercise is recommended for patients with mild to moderate hallux valgus.

  20. Vehicle navigation in populated areas using predictive control with environmental uncertainty handling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skrzypczyk Krzysztof

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of navigating an autonomous vehicle using environmental dynamics prediction. The usefulness of the Game Against Nature formalism adapted to modelling environmental prediction uncertainty is discussed. The possibility of the control law synthesis on the basis of strategies against Nature is presented. The properties and effectiveness of the approach presented are verified by simulations carried out in MATLAB.

  1. A new general dynamic model predicting radionuclide concentrations and fluxes in coastal areas from readily accessible driving variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haakanson, Lars

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a general, process-based dynamic model for coastal areas for radionuclides (metals, organics and nutrients) from both single pulse fallout and continuous deposition. The model gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases and concentrations in sediments and fish) for entire defined coastal areas. The model gives monthly variations. It accounts for inflow from tributaries, direct fallout to the coastal area, internal fluxes (sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, burial, mixing and biouptake and retention in fish) and fluxes to and from the sea outside the defined coastal area and/or adjacent coastal areas. The fluxes of water and substances between the sea and the coastal area are differentiated into three categories of coast types: (i) areas where the water exchange is regulated by tidal effects; (ii) open coastal areas where the water exchange is regulated by coastal currents; and (iii) semi-enclosed archipelago coasts. The coastal model gives the fluxes to and from the following four abiotic compartments: surface water, deep water, ET areas (i.e., areas where fine sediment erosion and transport processes dominate the bottom dynamic conditions and resuspension appears) and A-areas (i.e., areas of continuous fine sediment accumulation). Criteria to define the boundaries for the given coastal area towards the sea, and to define whether a coastal area is open or closed are given in operational terms. The model is simple to apply since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, fallout and month of fallout and parameters expressing coastal size and form as determined from, e.g., digitized bathymetric maps using a GIS program. Selected results: the predictions of radionuclide concentrations in water and fish largely depend on two factors, the concentration in the sea outside the given

  2. Tonic pain and continuous EEG: prediction of subjective pain perception by alpha-1 power during stimulation and at rest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nir, Rony-Reuven; Sinai, Alon; Moont, Ruth; Harari, Eyal; Yarnitsky, David

    2012-03-01

    Pain neurophysiology has been chiefly characterized via event-related potentials (ERPs), which are exerted using brief, phase-locked noxious stimuli. Striving for objectively characterizing clinical pain states using more natural, prolonged stimuli, tonic pain has been recently associated with the individual peak frequency of alpha oscillations. This finding encouraged us to explore whether alpha power, reflecting the magnitude of the synchronized activity within this frequency range, will demonstrate a corresponding relationship with subjective perception of tonic pain. Five-minute-long continuous EEG was recorded in 18 healthy volunteers under: (i) resting-state; (ii) innocuous temperature; and (iii) psychophysically-anchored noxious temperature. Numerical pain scores (NPSs) collected during the application of tonic noxious stimuli were tested for correlation with alpha-1 and alpha-2 power. NPSs and alpha power remained stable throughout the recording conditions (Ps⩾0.381). In the noxious condition, alpha-1 power obtained at the bilateral temporal scalp was negatively correlated with NPSs (Ps⩽0.04). Additionally, resting-state alpha-1 power recorded at the bilateral temporal scalp was negatively correlated with NPSs reported during the noxious condition (Ps⩽0.038). Current findings suggest alpha-1 power may serve as a direct, objective and experimentally stable measure of subjective perception of tonic pain. Furthermore, resting-state alpha-1 power might reflect individuals' inherent tonic pain responsiveness. The relevance of alpha-1 power to tonic pain perception may deepen the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the processing of prolonged noxious stimulation. Copyright © 2011 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Evaluation of Airborne Remote Sensing Techniques for Predicting the Distribution of Energetic Compounds on Impact Areas

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graves, Mark R; Dove, Linda P; Jenkins, Thomas F; Bigl, Susan; Walsh, Marianne E; Hewitt, Alan D; Lambert, Dennis; Perron, Nancy; Ramsey, Charles; Gamey, Jeff; Beard, Les; Doll, William E; Magoun, Dale

    2007-01-01

    .... These sampling approaches do not accurately account for the distribution of such contaminants over the landscape due to the distributed nature of explosive compound sources throughout impact areas...

  4. Silver linings and candles in the dark: differences among positive coping strategies in predicting subjective well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiota, Michelle N

    2006-05-01

    Ideal coping strategies enhance positive aspects of well-being as well as reduce distress. Although researchers have identified several "positive coping" strategies, it is unclear which are most strongly associated with well-being or whether all strategies are equally appropriate for all kinds of stressors. Participants completed well-being measures, and described the most negative event of the day and their emotion regulation strategies for the next 7 days. Dispositional use of positive emotion-inducing coping strategies was most strongly associated with positive aspects of well-being. Use of positive coping did not decrease with increased objective stress during the week, and use of particular strategies was partly predicted by the types of stressors that were reported. Implications for theories of positive coping are discussed. 2006 APA, all rights reserved

  5. ICIS Contacts Subject Area Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Integrated Compliance Information System (ICIS) is a web-based system that provides information for the federal enforcement and compliance (FE&C) and the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) programs.

  6. An Adaptive Model Predictive Load Frequency Control Method for Multi-Area Interconnected Power Systems with Photovoltaic Generations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Qiang Zeng

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available As the penetration level of renewable distributed generations such as wind turbine generator and photovoltaic stations increases, the load frequency control issue of a multi-area interconnected power system becomes more challenging. This paper presents an adaptive model predictive load frequency control method for a multi-area interconnected power system with photovoltaic generation by considering some nonlinear features such as a dead band for governor and generation rate constraint for steam turbine. The dynamic characteristic of this system is formulated as a discrete-time state space model firstly. Then, the predictive dynamic model is obtained by introducing an expanded state vector, and rolling optimization of control signal is implemented based on a cost function by minimizing the weighted sum of square predicted errors and square future control values. The simulation results on a typical two-area power system consisting of photovoltaic and thermal generator have demonstrated the superiority of the proposed model predictive control method to these state-of-the-art control techniques such as firefly algorithm, genetic algorithm, and population extremal optimization-based proportional-integral control methods in cases of normal conditions, load disturbance and parameters uncertainty.

  7. Quantitative assessment and prediction of the contact area development during spherical tip indentation of glassy polymers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelletier, C.G.N.; Toonder, den J.M.J.; Govaert, L.E.; Hakiri, N.; Sakai, M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the development of the contact area during indentation of polycarbonate. The contact area was measured in situ using an instrumented indentation microscope and compared with numerical simulations using an elasto-plastic constitutive model. The parameters in the model were

  8. Prediction of basal metabolic rate in overweight/obese and non-obese subjects and its relation to pulmonary function tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merghani, Tarig H; Alawad, Azza O; Ibrahim, Rihab M; Abdelmoniem, Asim M

    2015-08-15

    Few studies investigated the association between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and indicators of pulmonary function. This study was conducted to estimate BMR in overweight/obese and non-obese healthy subjects using four commonly used predictive equations and to investigate its relation to the indicators of lung function tests (LFT). A cross sectional study was conducted in Tabuk University, Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. A total of 201 students (98 males and 103 females) participated in the study. Four different values of BMR were calculated for each participant using four different predictive equations (Harris-Benedict, Mifflin, FAO/WHO/UNU and Henry-Rees). A portable All-flow spirometer (Clement Clarke International, Harlow, UK) was used for measurements of LFT. Significantly higher values of spirometric indicators (p BMR values predicted with the four equations were significantly higher in the males compared to the females and among the overweight/obese compared to the non-obese subjects (p BMR values and the indicators of LFT was statistically insignificant (p > 0.05). Mean values of LFT indicators are not related to the estimated values of BMR. A practical calculation of BMR based on direct measurement of oxygen consumption is recommended to confirm the absence of this association.

  9. When does meaning making predict subjective well-being? Examining young and older adults in two cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alea, Nicole; Bluck, Susan

    2013-01-01

    Two studies in different cultures (Study 1: USA, N=174, Study 2: Trinidad, N=167) examined whether meaning making, (i.e., both searching for meaning, and directing behaviour) is positively related to subjective well-being (SWB) by age (younger, older adults). In both studies, participants self-reported engagement in meaning making, and SWB (e.g., affect, future time perspective, psychological well-being). In Study 1, young Americans (compared to older) more frequently used their past to direct behaviour but doing so was unrelated to SWB. In older Americans, both types of meaning making were positively associated with SWB. In Study 2, Trinidadian younger adults were again more likely than older adults to engage in meaning making. Unlike in the American sample, however, directing behaviour was positively related to SWB for both young and older adults. The studies demonstrate that whether meaning making shows benefits for SWB may depend on type of meaning, age and culture. Note that although meaning making was sometimes unrelated to SWB, no detrimental relations to meaning making were found. The discussion focuses on the role of moderators in understanding when meaning making should lead to benefits versus costs to SWB.

  10. Bayesian Predictive Inference of a Proportion Under a Twofold Small-Area Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandram Balgobin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We extend the twofold small-area model of Stukel and Rao (1997; 1999 to accommodate binary data. An example is the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS, in which pass-fail data for mathematics of students from US schools (clusters are available at the third grade by regions and communities (small areas. We compare the finite population proportions of these small areas. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model in which the firststage binary responses have independent Bernoulli distributions, and each subsequent stage is modeled using a beta distribution, which is parameterized by its mean and a correlation coefficient. This twofold small-area model has an intracluster correlation at the first stage and an intercluster correlation at the second stage. The final-stage mean and all correlations are assumed to be noninformative independent random variables. We show how to infer the finite population proportion of each area. We have applied our models to synthetic TIMSS data to show that the twofold model is preferred over a onefold small-area model that ignores the clustering within areas. We further compare these models using a simulation study, which shows that the intracluster correlation is particularly important.

  11. Predicting and explaining plant invasions through analysis of source area floras: some critical considerations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pyšek, Petr; Richardson, D. M.; Williamson, M.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, - (2004), s. 179-187 ISSN 1366-9516 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK6005114; GA ČR GA206/03/1216 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6005908 Keywords : archaeophytes * biological invasions * distribution ranges Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.109, year: 2002

  12. Predicting the Permanent Safe Donor Area for Hair Transplantation in Koreans with Male Pattern Baldness according to the Position of the Parietal Whorl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Young Cheon; Moh, Jae Seong; Lee, Seung Yong; You, Seung Hyun

    2014-01-01

    Background The most crucial factor in hair transplantation for male pattern baldness (MPB) patients is the efficient utilization of the donor-recipient ratio. However, there is no known factor that scientifically predicts the rate of progression of alopecia or indicates a permanently safe donor area. Methods The study considered 1,008 Korean adult males with MPB; of these, it excluded 56 males with an absence of parietal whorls (PWs). The authors investigated the distance from the vertical bimeatal line (VM) to the PW, from the PW to the upper border of the helical rim (HR), and the distance from the PW to the occipital fringe (OF) in 952 subjects with a PW. Furthermore, we examined the distance from the PW to the OF considering the duration of alopecia and age in 322 subjects with vertex alopecia. Results The distance between the VM and PW varied from 1.5 to 11 cm, with an average distance of 6.25 cm. The PW-HR distance ranged from 3.4 to 17.5 cm, and the average distance was 7.79 cm. The PW-OF distance ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 cm, and the average distance was 2.37 cm. Conclusions For the PW, very large variations existed in the vertical direction. The position of the PW could predict the progression range of the total alopecia of the vertex. Alopecia mostly progresses within 6 cm of the PW toward the occipital side. PMID:24883280

  13. Predicting the Permanent Safe Donor Area for Hair Transplantation in Koreans with Male Pattern Baldness according to the Position of the Parietal Whorl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Hyun Park

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The most crucial factor in hair transplantation for male pattern baldness (MPB patients is the efficient utilization of the donor-recipient ratio. However, there is no known factor that scientifically predicts the rate of progression of alopecia or indicates a permanently safe donor area. Methods The study considered 1,008 Korean adult males with MPB; of these, it excluded 56 males with an absence of parietal whorls (PWs. The authors investigated the distance from the vertical bimeatal line (VM to the PW, from the PW to the upper border of the helical rim (HR, and the distance from the PW to the occipital fringe (OF in 952 subjects with a PW. Furthermore, we examined the distance from the PW to the OF considering the duration of alopecia and age in 322 subjects with vertex alopecia. Results The distance between the VM and PW varied from 1.5 to 11 cm, with an average distance of 6.25 cm. The PW-HR distance ranged from 3.4 to 17.5 cm, and the average distance was 7.79 cm. The PW-OF distance ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 cm, and the average distance was 2.37 cm. Conclusions For the PW, very large variations existed in the vertical direction. The position of the PW could predict the progression range of the total alopecia of the vertex. Alopecia mostly progresses within 6 cm of the PW toward the occipital side.

  14. Left atrial low-voltage areas predict atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Masaharu; Fujita, Masashi; Iida, Osamu; Okamoto, Shin; Ishihara, Takayuki; Nanto, Kiyonori; Kanda, Takashi; Tsujimura, Takuya; Matsuda, Yasuhiro; Okuno, Shota; Ohashi, Takuya; Tsuji, Aki; Mano, Toshiaki

    2018-04-15

    Association between the presence of left atrial low-voltage areas and atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) has been shown mainly in persistent AF patients. We sought to compare the AF recurrence rate in paroxysmal AF patients with and without left atrial low-voltage areas. This prospective observational study included 147 consecutive patients undergoing initial ablation for paroxysmal AF. Voltage mapping was performed after PVI during sinus rhythm, and low-voltage areas were defined as regions where bipolar peak-to-peak voltage was low-voltage areas after PVI were observed in 22 (15%) patients. Patients with low-voltage areas were significantly older (72±6 vs. 66±10, plow-voltage areas than without (36% vs. 6%, pLow-voltage areas were independently associated with AF recurrence even after adjustment for the other related factors (Hazard ratio, 5.89; 95% confidence interval, 2.16 to 16.0, p=0.001). The presence of left atrial low-voltage areas after PVI predicts AF recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF as well as in patients with persistent AF. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Model to predict radiological consequences of transportation accidents involving dispersal of radioactive material in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    The analysis of accidental releases of radioactive material which may result from transportation accidents in high-density urban areas is influenced by several urban characteristics which make computer simulation the calculational method of choice. These urban features fall into four categories. Each of these categories contains time- and location-dependent parameters which must be coupled to the actual time and location of the release in the calculation of the anticipated radiological consequences. Due to the large number of dependent parameters a computer model, METRAN, has been developed to quantify these radiological consequences. Rather than attempt to describe an urban area as a single entity, a specific urban area is subdivided into a set of cells of fixed size to permit more detailed characterization. Initially, the study area is subdivided into a set of 2-dimensional cells. A uniform set of time-dependent physical characteristics which describe the land use, population distribution, traffic density, etc., within that cell are then computed from various data sources. The METRAN code incorporates several details of urban areas. A principal limitation of the analysis is the limited availability of accurate information to use as input data. Although the code was originally developed to analyze dispersal of radioactive material, it is currently being evaluated for use in analyzing the effects of dispersal of other hazardous materials in both urban and rural areas

  16. Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve-number equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, Steve W.; Walter, M. Todd; Gérard-Marchant, Pierre; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

    2004-10-01

    Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve-number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point-source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS-CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south-eastern Australia to produce runoff-probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN-VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS-CN method, the distributed CN-VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN-VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS-CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology.

  17. Simple models for predicting leaf area of mango (Mangifera indica L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Ghoreishi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mango (Mangifera indica L., one of the most popular tropical fruits, is cultivated in a considerable part of southern Iran. Leaf area is a valuable parameter in mango research, especially plant physiological and nutrition field. Most of available methods for estimating plant leaf area are difficult to apply, expensive and destructive which could in turn destroy the canopy and consequently make it difficult to perform further tests on the same plant. Therefore, a non-destructive method which is simple, inexpensive, and could yield an accurate estimation of leaf area will be a great benefit to researchers. A regression analysis was performed in order to determine the relationship between the leaf area and leaf width, leaf length, dry and fresh weight. For this purpose 50 mango seedlings of local selections were randomly took from a nursery in the Hormozgan province, and different parts of plants were separated in laboratory. Leaf area was measured by different method included leaf area meter, planimeter, ruler (length and width and the fresh and dry weight of leaves were also measured. The best regression models were statistically selected using Determination Coefficient, Maximum Error, Model Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error and Coefficient of Residual Mass. Overall, based on regression equation, a satisfactory estimation of leaf area was obtained by measuring the non-destructive parameters, i.e. number of leaf per seedling, length of the longest and width of widest leaf (R2 = 0.88 and also destructive parameters, i.e. dry weight (R2 = 0.94 and fresh weight (R2= 0.94 of leaves.

  18. 3D transient model to predict temperature and ablated areas during laser processing of metallic surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak. B. Naghshine

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Laser processing is one of the most popular small-scale patterning methods and has many applications in semiconductor device fabrication and biomedical engineering. Numerical modelling of this process can be used for better understanding of the process, optimization, and predicting the quality of the final product. An accurate 3D model is presented here for short laser pulses that can predict the ablation depth and temperature distribution on any section of the material in a minimal amount of time. In this transient model, variations of thermal properties, plasma shielding, and phase change are considered. Ablation depth was measured using a 3D optical profiler. Calculated depths are in good agreement with measured values on laser treated titanium surfaces. The proposed model can be applied to a wide range of materials and laser systems.

  19. Characteristic and Prediction of Carbon Monoxide Concentration using Time Series Analysis in Selected Urban Area in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Hamid Hazrul

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carbon monoxide (CO is a poisonous, colorless, odourless and tasteless gas. The main source of carbon monoxide is from motor vehicles and carbon monoxide levels in residential areas closely reflect the traffic density. Prediction of carbon monoxide is important to give an early warning to sufferer of respiratory problems and also can help the related authorities to be more prepared to prevent and take suitable action to overcome the problem. This research was carried out using secondary data from Department of Environment Malaysia from 2013 to 2014. The main objectives of this research is to understand the characteristic of CO concentration and also to find the most suitable time series model to predict the CO concentration in Bachang, Melaka and Kuala Terengganu. Based on the lowest AIC value and several error measure, the results show that ARMA (1,1 is the most appropriate model to predict CO concentration level in Bachang, Melaka while ARMA (1,2 is the most suitable model with smallest error to predict the CO concentration level for residential area in Kuala Terengganu.

  20. Strain dyssynchrony index determined by three-dimensional speckle area tracking can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onishi Tetsuari

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We have previously reported strain dyssynchrony index assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking strain, and a marker of both dyssynchrony and residual myocardial contractility, can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. A newly developed three-dimensional (3-D speckle tracking system can quantify endocardial area change ratio (area strain, which coupled with the factors of both longitudinal and circumferential strain, from all 16 standard left ventricular (LV segments using complete 3-D pyramidal datasets. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that strain dyssynchrony index using area tracking (ASDI can quantify dyssynchrony and predict response to CRT. Methods We studied 14 heart failure patients with ejection fraction of 27 ± 7% (all≤35% and QRS duration of 172 ± 30 ms (all≥120 ms who underwent CRT. Echocardiography was performed before and 6-month after CRT. ASDI was calculated as the average difference between peak and end-systolic area strain of LV endocardium obtained from 3-D speckle tracking imaging using 16 segments. Conventional dyssynchrony measures were assessed by interventricular mechanical delay, Yu Index, and two-dimensional radial dyssynchrony by speckle-tracking strain. Response was defined as a ≥15% decrease in LV end-systolic volume 6-month after CRT. Results ASDI ≥ 3.8% was the best predictor of response to CRT with a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 100% and area under the curve (AUC of 0.93 (p Conclusions ASDI can predict responders and LV reverse remodeling following CRT. This novel index using the 3-D speckle tracking system, which shows circumferential and longitudinal LV dyssynchrony and residual endocardial contractility, may thus have clinical significance for CRT patients.

  1. Heat stress in urban areas. Indoor and outdoor temperatures in different urban structure types and subjectively reported well-being during a heat wave in the city of Leipzig

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franck, Ulrich; Roeder, Stefan; Schlink, Uwe [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig (Germany). Core Facility Studies; Krueger, Michael [Leipzig Univ. (Germany). Inst. of Geography; Schwarz, Nina [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig (Germany). Dept. of Computational Landscape Ecology; Grossmann, Katrin [Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig (Germany). Dept. of Urban and Environmental Sociology

    2013-04-15

    Climate projections for Leipzig suggest elevated minimum and maximum temperatures as well as more frequent days with high temperatures. Hence, climate change is threatening human well-being and health. People spend the majority of their time indoors. Therefore, indoor temperatures (especially during the night) are of special importance with respect to well-being and health. Indoor air temperature depends on outdoor air temperatures, but is for example modified by type of urban structure, housing area, and may be also influenced by differences in the behavior of the inhabitants. Especially in cities, outdoor air temperatures depend on urban structure e.g. housing density, building arrangement, unpaved areas, types of urban structures, urban green, and other factors. Hence, the questions arise how types of urban structures are related to inner-urban temperature differences and how outdoor air temperatures influence indoor temperatures in dependence on urban housing conditions. This work is a part of a pilot study conducted during the summer 2010 which gathered data from remote sensing, mobile measurements, stationary measurements of air temperatures and relative humidity in areas with different housing structures, and of indoor as well as outdoor temperatures in occupied apartments. Household-survey data reported the subjective perception of heat stress. The study resulted in rather complex relationships between type of housing areas, indoor and outdoor temperatures, morning and evening temperatures, indoor and outdoor temperatures as well as subjective heat perception. Green spaces and types of residential areas are related to air temperatures. More green resulted in lower temperatures. Temperatures have a tendency to increase with increasing story number and are significantly higher in the top floor. An indoor heat island effect corresponding to the outdoor effect could be shown for the homes: Distance to city center is a predicting variable for both outdoor and

  2. Heat stress in urban areas: Indoor and outdoor temperatures in different urban structure types and subjectively reported well-being during a heat wave in the city of Leipzig

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Franck

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate projections for Leipzig suggest elevated minimum and maximum temperatures as well as more frequent days with high temperatures. Hence, climate change is threatening human well-being and health. People spend the majority of their time indoors. Therefore, indoor temperatures (especially during the night are of special importance with respect to well-being and health. Indoor air temperature depends on outdoor air temperatures, but is for example modified by type of urban structure, housing area, and may be also influenced by differences in the behavior of the inhabitants. Especially in cities, outdoor air temperatures depend on urban structure e.g. housing density, building arrangement, unpaved areas, types of urban structures, urban green, and other factors. Hence, the questions arise how types of urban structures are related to inner-urban temperature differences and how outdoor air temperatures influence indoor temperatures in dependence on urban housing conditions. This work is a part of a pilot study conducted during the summer 2010 which gathered data from remote sensing, mobile measurements, stationary measurements of air temperatures and relative humidity in areas with different housing structures, and of indoor as well as outdoor temperatures in occupied apartments. Household-survey data reported the subjective perception of heat stress. The study resulted in rather complex relationships between type of housing areas, indoor and outdoor temperatures, morning and evening temperatures, indoor and outdoor temperatures as well as subjective heat perception. Green spaces and types of residential areas are related to air temperatures. More green resulted in lower temperatures. Temperatures have a tendency to increase with increasing story number and are significantly higher in the top floor. An indoor heat island effect corresponding to the outdoor effect could be shown for the homes: Distance to city center is a predicting variable for

  3. Predictive equations for dimensions and leaf area of coastal Southern California street trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson; S.M. Mori

    2001-01-01

    Tree height, crown height, crown width, diameter at breast height (dbh), and leaf area were measured for 16 species of commonly planted street trees in the coastal southern California city of Santa Monica, USA. The randomly sampled trees were planted from 1 to 44 years ago. Using number of years after planting or dbh as explanatory variables, mean values of dbh, tree...

  4. Equations for predicting diameter, height, crown width, and leaf area of San Joaquin Valley street trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson; S.M. Mori

    2001-01-01

    Although the modeling of energy-use reduction, air pollution uptake, rainfall interception, and microclimate modification associated with urban trees depends on data relating diameter at breast height (dbh) , crown height, crown diameter, and leaf area to tree age or dbh, scant information is available for common municipal tree species . I n this study , tree height ,...

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Western Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oE-180o (western equatorial...

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Eastern Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oW-120oW (eastern...

  7. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Central Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 175oW-140oW (central...

  8. A metabolomics-driven approach to predict cocoa product consumption by designing a multimetabolite biomarker model in free-living subjects from the PREDIMED study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Aloy, Mar; Llorach, Rafael; Urpi-Sarda, Mireia; Jáuregui, Olga; Corella, Dolores; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi; Fitó, Montserrat; Ros, Emilio; Estruch, Ramon; Andres-Lacueva, Cristina

    2015-02-01

    The aim of the current study was to apply an untargeted metabolomics strategy to characterize a model of cocoa intake biomarkers in a free-living population. An untargeted HPLC-q-ToF-MS based metabolomics approach was applied to human urine from 32 consumers of cocoa or derived products (CC) and 32 matched control subjects with no consumption of cocoa products (NC). The multivariate statistical analysis (OSC-PLS-DA) showed clear differences between CC and NC groups. The discriminant biomarkers identified were mainly related to the metabolic pathways of theobromine and polyphenols, as well as to cocoa processing. Consumption of cocoa products was also associated with reduced urinary excretions of methylglutarylcarnitine, which could be related to effects of cocoa exposure on insulin resistance. To improve the prediction of cocoa consumption, a combined urinary metabolite model was constructed. ROC curves were performed to evaluate the model and individual metabolites. The AUC values (95% CI) for the model were 95.7% (89.8-100%) and 92.6% (81.9-100%) in training and validation sets, respectively, whereas the AUCs for individual metabolites were cocoa consumption in free-living subjects reveals that combining different metabolites as biomarker models improves prediction of dietary exposure to cocoa. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  9. Seismic prediction of sweet spots in the Da'anzhai shale play, Yuanba area, the Sichuan Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Changzi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Burial depth, thickness, total organic carbon (TOC content, brittleness and fracture development of shale reservoirs are the main geologic indexes in the evaluation of sweet spots in shale gas plays. Taking the 2nd interval of Da'anzhai shale of the Lower Jurassic as the study object, a set of techniques in seismic prediction of sweet spots were developed based on special processing of seismic data and comprehensive analysis of various data based on these geologic indexes. First, logging and seismic responses of high quality shales were found out through fine calibration of shale reservoir location with seismogram, which was combined with seismic facies analysis to define the macroscopic distribution of the shale. Then, seismic impedance inversion and GR inversion were used to identify shale from limestone and sandstone. Based on statistical analysis of sensitive parameters such as TOC, the uranium log inversion technique was used to quantitatively predict TOC of a shale reservoir and the thickness of a high quality shale reservoir. After that, fracture prediction technique was employed to predict play fairways. Finally, the pre-stack joint P-wave and S-wave impedance inversion technique was adopted to identify shales with high brittleness suitable for hydraulic fracturing. These seismic prediction techniques have been applied in sorting out sweet spots in the 2nd interval of the Da'anzhai shale play of the Yuanba area, and the results provided a sound basis for the optimization of horizontal well placement and hydraulic fracturing.

  10. Prediction Method for Rain Rate and Rain Propagation Attenuation for K-Band Satellite Communications Links in Tropical Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baso Maruddani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the prediction method using hidden Markov model (HMM for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation for K-band satellite communication link at tropical area. As is well known, the K-band frequency is susceptible of being affected by atmospheric condition, especially in rainy condition. The wavelength of K-band frequency which approaches to the size of rain droplet causes the signal strength is easily attenuated and absorbed by the rain droplet. In order to keep the quality of system performance for K-band satellite communication link, therefore a special attention has to be paid for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation. Thus, a prediction method for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation based on HMM is developed to process the measurement data. The measured and predicted data are then compared with the ITU-R recommendation. From the result, it is shown that the measured and predicted data show similarity with the model of ITU-R P.837-5 recommendation for rain rate and the model of ITU-R P.618-10 recommendation for rain propagation attenuation. Meanwhile, statistical data for measured and predicted data such as fade duration and interfade duration have insignificant discrepancy with the model of ITU-R P.1623-1 recommendation.

  11. Predicting Cognitive, Functional, and Diagnostic Change over 4 Years Using Baseline Subjective Cognitive Complaints in the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slavin, Melissa J; Sachdev, Perminder S; Kochan, Nicole A; Woolf, Claudia; Crawford, John D; Giskes, Katrina; Reppermund, Simone; Trollor, Julian N; Draper, Brian; Delbaere, Kim; Brodaty, Henry

    2015-09-01

    There is limited understanding of the usefulness of subjective cognitive complaint(s) (SCC) in predicting longitudinal outcome because most studies focus solely on memory (as opposed to nonmemory cognitive) complaints, do not collect data from both participants and informants, do not control for relevant covariates, and have limited outcome measures. Therefore the authors investigate the usefulness of participant and informant SCCs in predicting change in cognition, functional abilities, and diagnostic classification of mild cognitive impairment or dementia in a community-dwelling sample over 4 years. Nondemented participants (N = 620) in the Sydney Memory and Ageing Study aged between 70 and 90 years completed 15 memory and 9 nonmemory SCC questions. An informant completed a baseline questionnaire that included 15 memory and 4 nonmemory SCC questions relating to the participant. Neuropsychological, functional, and diagnostic assessments were carried out at baseline and again at 4-year follow-up. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were carried out to determine the association between SCC indices and neuropsychological, functional, and diagnostic data while controlling for psychological measures. Once participant characteristics were controlled for, participant complaints were generally not predictive of cognitive or functional decline, although participant memory-specific complaints were predictive of diagnostic conversion. Informant-related memory questions were associated with global cognitive and functional decline and with diagnostic conversion over 4 years. Informant memory complaint questions were better than participant complaints in predicting cognitive and functional decline as well as diagnoses over 4 years. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

    2018-05-01

    The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

  13. Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Deepak

    2011-01-01

    Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

  14. Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shield, Stephen Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dai, Zhenxue [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-08-18

    Meteorological inputs are an important part of subsurface flow and transport modeling. The choice of source for meteorological data used as inputs has significant impacts on the results of subsurface flow and transport studies. One method to obtain the meteorological data required for flow and transport studies is the use of weather generating models. This paper compares the difference in performance of two weather generating models at Technical Area 54 of Los Alamos National Lab. Technical Area 54 is contains several waste pits for low-level radioactive waste and is the site for subsurface flow and transport studies. This makes the comparison of the performance of the two weather generators at this site particularly valuable.

  15. Artificial neural network for prediction of the area under the disease progress curve of tomato late blight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Pedrosa Alves

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Artificial neural networks (ANN are computational models inspired by the neural systems of living beings capable of learning from examples and using them to solve problems such as non-linear prediction, and pattern recognition, in addition to several other applications. In this study, ANN were used to predict the value of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC for the tomato late blight pathosystem. The AUDPC is widely used by epidemiologic studies of polycyclic diseases, especially those regarding quantitative resistance of genotypes. However, a series of six evaluations over time is necessary to obtain the final area value for this pathosystem. This study aimed to investigate the utilization of ANN to construct an AUDPC in the tomato late blight pathosystem, using a reduced number of severity evaluations. For this, four independent experiments were performed giving a total of 1836 plants infected with Phytophthora infestans pathogen. They were assessed every three days, comprised six opportunities and AUDPC calculations were performed by the conventional method. After the ANN were created it was possible to predict the AUDPC with correlations of 0.97 and 0.84 when compared to conventional methods, using 50 % and 67 % of the genotype evaluations, respectively. When using the ANN created in an experiment to predict the AUDPC of the other experiments the average correlation was 0.94, with two evaluations, 0.96, with three evaluations, between the predicted values of the ANN and they were observed in six evaluations. We present in this study a new paradigm for the use of AUDPC information in tomato experiments faced with P. infestans. This new proposed paradigm might be adapted to different pathosystems.

  16. Educational role of art history as a school subject area in programmes of formal education in Slovenia: the aspect of vzgoja, according to general European guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjana Dolšina

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Programmes of formal education establish a systematic transfer of knowledge as well as universal values from one generation to another. By that, they ensure the survival of social structures, prevent radical disruptions in their continuity, and serve as basis for general development of a society. Their content and didactic arrangements include interweaving of two basic aspects: the cognitive one and the one related to vzgoja (i.e. upbringing, moral/value education etc.. The latter aims to achieve the ideals of a tolerant, just and lifelong learning society, but seems to be facing increasing challenges, mainly emerging from neoliberal capitalist mentality. Art history as a school subject area in elementary and secondary education may provide an insight beneath the surface of historical events. Thus, it helps develop a critical view towards them and consequently towards the present real-life situations, which contributes to ascending the taxonomic scale of conative educational goals.

  17. Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

    2008-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of

  18. Iron, folacin, vitamin B12 and zinc status and immune response in elderly subjects in the Washington D.C. metropolitan area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry-Christian, J.R.

    1986-01-01

    The iron, folacin, vitamin B 12 , and zinc status of a group of economically and socially disadvantaged elderly persons in the Washington Metropolitan Area was evaluated. Factors related to deficiencies of these nutrients, the relationships between the status of these nutrients and cell-mediated immunity, and the relationships of iron, folacin and vitamin B 12 status to hemoglobin levels in the subjects were also examined. It was also determined whether there were any interactions among iron, folacin, vitamin B 12 and zinc status in their relationships to cell-mediated immunity. Socio-demographic and nutritional data on the subjects were obtained using a questionnaire. Dietary data were obtained using a dietary record. A fasting blood sample was drawn and the levels of ferritin, folate and vitamin B 12 , and the erythrocyte levels of folate were determined by radioassay. Plasma and hair zinc levels were determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Cell-mediated immune response was determined by transformation of peripheral blood lymphocytes after stimulation by mitogens, and by allogenic lymphocytes in the mixed lymphocyte reaction

  19. Using the area under the curve to reduce measurement error in predicting young adult blood pressure from childhood measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Nancy R; Rosner, Bernard A; Chen, Wei; Srinivasan, Sathanur R; Berenson, Gerald S

    2004-11-30

    Tracking correlations of blood pressure, particularly childhood measures, may be attenuated by within-person variability. Combining multiple measurements can reduce this error substantially. The area under the curve (AUC) computed from longitudinal growth curve models can be used to improve the prediction of young adult blood pressure from childhood measures. Quadratic random-effects models over unequally spaced repeated measures were used to compute the area under the curve separately within the age periods 5-14 and 20-34 years in the Bogalusa Heart Study. This method adjusts for the uneven age distribution and captures the underlying or average blood pressure, leading to improved estimates of correlation and risk prediction. Tracking correlations were computed by race and gender, and were approximately 0.6 for systolic, 0.5-0.6 for K4 diastolic, and 0.4-0.6 for K5 diastolic blood pressure. The AUC can also be used to regress young adult blood pressure on childhood blood pressure and childhood and young adult body mass index (BMI). In these data, while childhood blood pressure and young adult BMI were generally directly predictive of young adult blood pressure, childhood BMI was negatively correlated with young adult blood pressure when childhood blood pressure was in the model. In addition, racial differences in young adult blood pressure were reduced, but not eliminated, after controlling for childhood blood pressure, childhood BMI, and young adult BMI, suggesting that other genetic or lifestyle factors contribute to this difference. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Predicting symptom clusters of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in Croatian war veterans: the role of socio-demographics, war experiences and subjective quality of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lončar, Mladen; Plašć, Ivana Dijanić; Bunjevac, Tomislav; Hrabač, Pero; Jakšić, Nenad; Kozina, Slavica; Henigsberg, Neven; Sagud, Marina; Marčinko, Darko

    2014-09-01

    Previous research has documented multiple chains of risk in the development of PTSD among war veterans. However, existing studies were mostly carried out in the West, while they also did not analyze specific symptom clusters of PTSD. The aim of this study was to examine the role of socio-demographic characteristics, war experiences and subjective quality of life in the prediction of three clusters of PTSD symptoms (i.e., avoidance, intrusion, hyperarousal). This study comprised 184 male participants who have survived war imprisonment during the Croatian Homeland War in the period from 1991 to 1995. The data was collected through several self-report measuring instruments: questionnaire on socio-demographic data, war experiences (Questionnaire on Traumatic Combat and War Experiences), subjective quality of life (WHO-Five Well-being Index), and PTSD symptoms (Impact of Events Scale - Revised). The level of three symptom clusters of PTSD was found to be moderate to high, as indicated by the scores on the IES-R. Results of the three hierarchical regression analyses showed the following: traumatic war experiences were significant predictors of avoidance symptoms; traumatic war experiences and subjective quality of life were significant predictors of hyperarousal symptoms; and traumatic war experiences, material status and subjective quality of life were significant predictors of intrusion symptoms. These findings support the widespread belief that the development of war-related PTSD is accounted for by multiple chains of risk, while traumatic war experiences seem to be the only predictor of all three symptom clusters. Future research should put more emphasis on specific PTSD symptom clusters when investigating the etiopathogenesis of this disorder among war-affected populations.

  1. [Subjective Workload, Job Satisfaction, and Work-Life-Balance of Physicians and Nurses in a Municipal Hospital in a Rural Area Compared to an Urban University Hospital].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Körber, Michael; Schmid, Klaus; Drexler, Hans; Kiesel, Johannes

    2018-05-01

    Medical and nursing shortages in rural areas represent a current serious public health problem. The healthcare of the rural population is at risk. This study compares perceived workload, job satisfaction and work-life balance of physicians and nurses at a clinic in a rural area with two clinics of a University hospital. Physicians and nurses were interviewed anonymously with a standardized questionnaire (paper and pencil), including questions on job satisfaction, subjective workload and work-life balance. The response rate was almost 50% in the University hospital as well as in the municipal hospital. 32 physicians and 54 nurses from the University hospital and 18 physicians and 137 nurses from the municipal hospital participated in the survey. Nurses at the University hospital assessed the organization of the daily routine with 94.1% as better than those at the municipal hospital (82.4%, p=0.03). Physicians at the University hospital were able to better implement acquired knowledge at a University clinic with 87.5% than their counterparts at the municipal hospital (55.5%, p=0.02). In contrast to their colleagues at the municipal hospital, only 50% of the physicians at the University hospital subjectively considered their workload as just right (83.3% municipal, p=0.02). 96.9% of the physicians at the University hospital were "daily" or "several times a week" under time pressure (municipal 50%, pwork and family life (62.9% University hospital, 72.8% Municipal hospital). In contrast, only 20% of the physicians at the University Hospital but 42.9% of the physicians of the municipal hospital had sufficient opportunities to balance workload and family (p=0.13). The return rate of almost 50% can be described as good. Due to the small number of physicians, especially from the municipal hospital, it can be assumed that some interesting differences could not be detected. There were only slight differences between the nurses from the two hospitals. In contrast, subjective

  2. Predicted Infiltration for Sodic/Saline Soils from Reclaimed Coastal Areas: Sensitivity to Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongdong Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm3. A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ0 was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

  3. Predicted infiltration for sodic/saline soils from reclaimed coastal areas: sensitivity to model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dongdong; She, Dongli; Yu, Shuang'en; Shao, Guangcheng; Chen, Dan

    2014-01-01

    This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline) and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline) were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm(3). A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ₀ was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

  4. Debris-flows scale predictions based on basin spatial parameters calculated from Remote Sensing images in Wenchuan earthquake area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Huaizhen; Chi, Tianhe; Liu, Tianyue; Wang, Wei; Yang, Lina; Zhao, Yuan; Shao, Jing; Yao, Xiaojing; Fan, Jianrong

    2014-01-01

    Debris flow is a common hazard in the Wenchuan earthquake area. Collapse and Landslide Regions (CLR), caused by earthquakes, could be located from Remote Sensing images. CLR are the direct material source regions for debris flow. The Spatial Distribution of Collapse and Landslide Regions (SDCLR) strongly impact debris-flow formation. In order to depict SDCLR, we referred to Strahler's Hypsometric analysis method and developed 3 functional models to depict SDCLR quantitatively. These models mainly depict SDCLR relative to altitude, basin mouth and main gullies of debris flow. We used the integral of functions as the spatial parameters of SDCLR and these parameters were employed during the process of debris-flows scale predictions. Grouping-occurring debris-flows triggered by the rainstorm, which occurred on September 24th 2008 in Beichuan County, Sichuan province China, were selected to build the empirical equations for debris-flows scale predictions. Given the existing data, only debris-flows runout zone parameters (Max. runout distance L and Lateral width B) were estimated in this paper. The results indicate that the predicted results were more accurate when the spatial parameters were used. Accordingly, we suggest spatial parameters of SDCLR should be considered in the process of debris-flows scale prediction and proposed several strategies to prevent debris flow in the future

  5. [Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

    2014-12-01

    The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

  6. Multivariable predictive control considering time delay for load-frequency control in multi-area power systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniar Sabah

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multivariable model based predictive control (MPC is proposed for the solution of load frequency control (LFC in a multi-area interconnected power system. The proposed controller is designed to consider time delay, generation rate constraint and multivariable nature of the LFC system, simultaneously. A new formulation of the MPC is presented to compensate time delay. The generation rate constraint is considered by employing a constrained MPC and economic allocation of the generation is further guaranteed by an innovative modification in the predictive control objective function. The effectiveness of proposed scheme is verified through time-based simulations on the standard 39-bus test system and the responses are then compared with the proportional-integral controller. The evaluation of the results reveals that the proposed control scheme offers satisfactory performance with fast responses.

  7. Applicability of a Single Time Point Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Concentration Curve of Linezolid in Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives: Linezolid, a oxazolidinone, was the first in class to be approved for the treatment of bacterial infections arising from both susceptible and resistant strains of Gram-positive bacteria. Since overt exposure of linezolid may precipitate serious toxicity issues......, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may be required in certain situations, especially in patients who are prescribed other co-medications. Methods: Using appropriate oral pharmacokinetic data (single dose and steady state) for linezolid, both maximum plasma drug concentration (Cmax) versus area under the plasma...... concentration–time curve (AUC) and minimum plasma drug concentration (Cmin) versus AUC relationship was established by linear regression models. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax or Cmin data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted...

  8. Transient stability enhancement of modern power grid using predictive Wide-Area Monitoring and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefian, Reza

    This dissertation presents a real-time Wide-Area Control (WAC) designed based on artificial intelligence for large scale modern power systems transient stability enhancement. The WAC using the measurements available from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) at generator buses, monitors the global oscillations in the system and optimally augments the local excitation system of the synchronous generators. The complexity of the power system stability problem along with uncertainties and nonlinearities makes the conventional modeling non-practical or inaccurate. In this work Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm on the benchmark of Neural Networks (NNs) is used to map the nonlinearities of the system in real-time. This method different from both the centralized and the decentralized control schemes, employs a number of semi-autonomous agents to collaborate with each other to perform optimal control theory well-suited for WAC applications. Also, to handle the delays in Wide-Area Monitoring (WAM) and adapt the RL toward the robust control design, Temporal Difference (TD) is proposed as a solver for RL problem or optimal cost function. However, the main drawback of such WAC design is that it is challenging to determine if an offline trained network is valid to assess the stability of the power system once the system is evolved to a different operating state or network topology. In order to address the generality issue of NNs, a value priority scheme is proposed in this work to design a hybrid linear and nonlinear controllers. The algorithm so-called supervised RL is based on mixture of experts, where it is initialized by linear controller and as the performance and identification of the RL controller improves in real-time switches to the other controller. This work also focuses on transient stability and develops Lyapunov energy functions for synchronous generators to monitor the stability stress of the system. Using such energies as a cost function guarantees the convergence

  9. Computational prediction of the effective temperature in the lying area of pig pens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerg, Bjarne; Rong, Li; Zhang, Guoqiang

    2018-01-01

    Using solid floor instead of drained or slatted floor in the lying areas of pig pens has distinct advantages in relation to animal welfare, odour abatement and ammonia emission, energy consumption and reduced building costs. However, pig producers often opt out of providing a solid floor due......, individually contribute to the combined effect of the thermal condition raising pigs are exposed to. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted to estimate the relevant parameters and, finally, the ET. Furthermore, the developed ET equation was implemented in the CFD model as a Custom Field...... Function to calculate the distribution of ET in the animal occupied zone. It was assumed that a traditional diffuse ceiling air inlet would deliver the required airflow rate as long as the outdoor temperature was below 10. °C. At higher outdoor temperature, a ceiling-jet inlet above each pen was opened...

  10. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Jetz

    Full Text Available Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.

  11. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  12. Effective Connectivity from Early Visual Cortex to Posterior Occipitotemporal Face Areas Supports Face Selectivity and Predicts Developmental Prosopagnosia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, Michael; Garrido, Lucia; Driver, Jon; Dolan, Raymond J; Duchaine, Bradley C; Furl, Nicholas

    2016-03-30

    selectivity. Furthermore, people with developmental prosopagnosia, a lifelong face recognition impairment, have reduced face selectivity in the posterior occipitotemporal face areas and left anterior temporal lobe. We show that this reduced face selectivity can be predicted by effective connectivity from early visual cortex to posterior occipitotemporal face areas. This study presents the first network-based account of how face selectivity arises in the human brain. Copyright © 2016 Lohse et al.

  13. Development of methods to predict both the dynamic and the pseudo-static response of secondary structures subjected to seismic excitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subudhi, M.; Bezler, P.

    1984-01-01

    Multiple independent support excitation time history formulations have been used to investigate simplified methods to predict the inertial (or dynamic) component of response as well as the pseudo-static (or static) component of response of secondary structures subjected to seismic excitations. For the dynamic component the independent response spectrum method is used with current industry practice for the modal and direction of excitation combinations being adopted and various procedures for the group combination and sequence being investigated. SRSS combination between support groups is found to yield satisfactory results. For the static component, support grouping by elevation for preliminary design followed by support grouping by attachment point for final design assure overall safety in the design

  14. Creep life prediction of super heater coils used in coal based thermal power plants subjected to fly ash erosion and oxide scale formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, P.; Kushwaha, Shashank

    2018-04-01

    Super heater coils of the coal based thermal power plants and subjected to severe operating conditions from both steam side and gas side. Formation of oxide scale due to prolonged service lead to temperature raise of the tube and erosion due to fly ash present in the combusted gases leads to tube thinning. Both these factors lead to creep rupture of the coils much before the designed service life. Failure of super heater coils during service of the boiler leads to power loss and huge monitory loss to the power plants. An attempt is made to model the creep damage caused to the super heater coils using heat transfer analysis tube thinning due to erosive wear of the tubes. Combined effects of these parameters are taken into consideration to predict the life of the super heater coils. This model may be used to estimate the life of the coils operating under the severe operating conditions to prevent the unexpected failure of the coils.

  15. Dyslipidemia in rural areas of North China: prevalence, characteristics, and predictive value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Nannan; Yu, Yong; Zhang, Bingchang; Yuan, Zhongshang; Zhang, Haiqing; Song, Yongfeng; Zhao, Meng; Ji, Jiadong; Liu, Lu; Xu, Chao; Zhao, Jiajun

    2016-09-13

    The prevalence of cardiovascular disease has been increasing worldwide. As a common pathogenic risk factor, dyslipidemia played a great role in the incidence and progress of these diseases. We investigated to achieve accurate and up-to-date information on the prevalence of dyslipidemia and its associations with other lipid-related diseases in rural North China. Using a complex, multistage, probability sampling design, we conducted a large-scale cross-sectional study of 8528 rural participants aged over 18 years in Shandong Province. Prevalence and characteristics of dyslipidemia were demonstrated. The odds ratios between dyslipidemia types and lipid-related diseases were further analyzed by logistic regression. Among the overall population, 45.8 % suffered from dyslipidemia. The prevalence of lipid abnormality (including high and very high levels) was 18.6, 12.7, 9.8 and 12.7 % for total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and triglycerides (TG), respectively. Among all participants with dyslipidemia, 23.9 % were aware, only 11.5 % were treated, 10.0 % were controlled. For subjects with dyslipidemia, the risk for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was highest with a 3.3-fold over that of non-dyslipidmia (OR = 3.30, P Dyslipidemia has become a serious public health issue in rural North China. The rapid increase of high TC and incremental risk of high TG may contribute to the epidemic of AS, NAFLD and DM. It is imperative to develop individualized prevention and treatment guidelines according to dyslipidemia phenotypes.

  16. Developing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based model for predicting water table depth in agricultural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianfeng; Zhu, Yan; Zhang, Xiaoping; Ye, Ming; Yang, Jinzhong

    2018-06-01

    Predicting water table depth over the long-term in agricultural areas presents great challenges because these areas have complex and heterogeneous hydrogeological characteristics, boundary conditions, and human activities; also, nonlinear interactions occur among these factors. Therefore, a new time series model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), was developed in this study as an alternative to computationally expensive physical models. The proposed model is composed of an LSTM layer with another fully connected layer on top of it, with a dropout method applied in the first LSTM layer. In this study, the proposed model was applied and evaluated in five sub-areas of Hetao Irrigation District in arid northwestern China using data of 14 years (2000-2013). The proposed model uses monthly water diversion, evaporation, precipitation, temperature, and time as input data to predict water table depth. A simple but effective standardization method was employed to pre-process data to ensure data on the same scale. 14 years of data are separated into two sets: training set (2000-2011) and validation set (2012-2013) in the experiment. As expected, the proposed model achieves higher R2 scores (0.789-0.952) in water table depth prediction, when compared with the results of traditional feed-forward neural network (FFNN), which only reaches relatively low R2 scores (0.004-0.495), proving that the proposed model can preserve and learn previous information well. Furthermore, the validity of the dropout method and the proposed model's architecture are discussed. Through experimentation, the results show that the dropout method can prevent overfitting significantly. In addition, comparisons between the R2 scores of the proposed model and Double-LSTM model (R2 scores range from 0.170 to 0.864), further prove that the proposed model's architecture is reasonable and can contribute to a strong learning ability on time series data. Thus, one can conclude that the proposed model can

  17. Predicting areas of sustainable error growth in quasigeostrophic flows using perturbation alignment properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivière, G.; Hua, B. L.

    2004-10-01

    A new perturbation initialization method is used to quantify error growth due to inaccuracies of the forecast model initial conditions in a quasigeostrophic box ocean model describing a wind-driven double gyre circulation. This method is based on recent analytical results on Lagrangian alignment dynamics of the perturbation velocity vector in quasigeostrophic flows. More specifically, it consists in initializing a unique perturbation from the sole knowledge of the control flow properties at the initial time of the forecast and whose velocity vector orientation satisfies a Lagrangian equilibrium criterion. This Alignment-based Initialization method is hereafter denoted as the AI method.In terms of spatial distribution of the errors, we have compared favorably the AI error forecast with the mean error obtained with a Monte-Carlo ensemble prediction. It is shown that the AI forecast is on average as efficient as the error forecast initialized with the leading singular vector for the palenstrophy norm, and significantly more efficient than that for total energy and enstrophy norms. Furthermore, a more precise examination shows that the AI forecast is systematically relevant for all control flows whereas the palenstrophy singular vector forecast leads sometimes to very good scores and sometimes to very bad ones.A principal component analysis at the final time of the forecast shows that the AI mode spatial structure is comparable to that of the first eigenvector of the error covariance matrix for a "bred mode" ensemble. Furthermore, the kinetic energy of the AI mode grows at the same constant rate as that of the "bred modes" from the initial time to the final time of the forecast and is therefore characterized by a sustained phase of error growth. In this sense, the AI mode based on Lagrangian dynamics of the perturbation velocity orientation provides a rationale of the "bred mode" behavior.

  18. Poor Positive Predictive Value of Lyme Disease Serologic Testing in an Area of Low Disease Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantos, Paul M; Branda, John A; Boggan, Joel C; Chudgar, Saumil M; Wilson, Elizabeth A; Ruffin, Felicia; Fowler, Vance; Auwaerter, Paul G; Nigrovic, Lise E

    2015-11-01

    Lyme disease is diagnosed by 2-tiered serologic testing in patients with a compatible clinical illness, but the significance of positive test results in low-prevalence regions has not been investigated. We reviewed the medical records of patients who tested positive for Lyme disease with standardized 2-tiered serologic testing between 2005 and 2010 at a single hospital system in a region with little endemic Lyme disease. Based on clinical findings, we calculated the positive predictive value of Lyme disease serology. Next, we reviewed the outcome of serologic testing in patients with select clinical syndromes compatible with disseminated Lyme disease (arthritis, cranial neuropathy, or meningitis). During the 6-year study period 4723 patients were tested for Lyme disease, but only 76 (1.6%) had positive results by established laboratory criteria. Among 70 seropositive patients whose medical records were available for review, 12 (17%; 95% confidence interval, 9%-28%) were found to have Lyme disease (6 with documented travel to endemic regions). During the same time period, 297 patients with a clinical illness compatible with disseminated Lyme disease underwent 2-tiered serologic testing. Six of them (2%; 95% confidence interval, 0.7%-4.3%) were seropositive, 3 with documented travel and 1 who had an alternative diagnosis that explained the clinical findings. In this low-prevalence cohort, fewer than 20% of positive Lyme disease tests are obtained from patients with clinically likely Lyme disease. Positive Lyme disease test results may have little diagnostic value in this setting. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

    2017-09-01

    We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

  20. Hybrid equation/agent-based model of ischemia-induced hyperemia and pressure ulcer formation predicts greater propensity to ulcerate in subjects with spinal cord injury.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Solovyev

    Full Text Available Pressure ulcers are costly and life-threatening complications for people with spinal cord injury (SCI. People with SCI also exhibit differential blood flow properties in non-ulcerated skin. We hypothesized that a computer simulation of the pressure ulcer formation process, informed by data regarding skin blood flow and reactive hyperemia in response to pressure, could provide insights into the pathogenesis and effective treatment of post-SCI pressure ulcers. Agent-Based Models (ABM are useful in settings such as pressure ulcers, in which spatial realism is important. Ordinary Differential Equation-based (ODE models are useful when modeling physiological phenomena such as reactive hyperemia. Accordingly, we constructed a hybrid model that combines ODEs related to blood flow along with an ABM of skin injury, inflammation, and ulcer formation. The relationship between pressure and the course of ulcer formation, as well as several other important characteristic patterns of pressure ulcer formation, was demonstrated in this model. The ODE portion of this model was calibrated to data related to blood flow following experimental pressure responses in non-injured human subjects or to data from people with SCI. This model predicted a higher propensity to form ulcers in response to pressure in people with SCI vs. non-injured control subjects, and thus may serve as novel diagnostic platform for post-SCI ulcer formation.

  1. An analytical model for the prediction of fluid-elastic forces in a rod bundle subjected to axial flow: theory, experimental validation and application to PWR fuel assemblies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaud, F.

    1997-01-01

    A model predicting the fluid-elastic forces in a bundle of circular cylinders subjected to axial flow is presented in this paper. Whereas previously published models were limited to circular flow channel, the present one allows to take a rectangular flow external boundary into account. For that purpose, an original approach is derived from the standard method of images. This model will eventually be used to predict the fluid-structure coupling between the flow of primary coolant and a fuel assemblies in PWR nuclear reactors. It is indeed of major importance since the flow is shown to induce quite high damping and could therefore mitigate the incidence of an external load like a seismic excitation on the dynamics of the assemblies. The proposed model is validated on two cases from the literature but still needs further comparisons with the experiments being currently carried out on the EDF set-up. The flow has been shown to induce an approximate 12% damping on a PWR fuel assembly, at nominal reactor conditions. The possible grid effect on the fluid-structure coupling has been neglected so far but will soon be investigated at EDF. (author)

  2. Technetium uptake predicts remission and relapse in Grave's disease patients on antithyroid drugs for at least 1 year in South Indian subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neha Singhal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Most of the information on remission related factors in Grave's disease are derived from Western literature. It is likely that there may be additional prognostic factors and differences in the postdrug treatment course of Grave's disease in India. Aim: To study factors which predict remission/relapse in Grave's disease patients from South India. Also to establish if technetium (Tc uptake has a role in predicting remission. Subjects and Methods: Records of 174 patients with clinical, biochemical, and scintigraphic criteria consistent with Grave's disease, seen in our Institution between January 2006 and 2014 were analyzed. Patient factors, drug-related factors, Tc-99m uptake and other clinical factors were compared between the remission and nonremission groups. Statistical Analysis Used: Mann–Whitney U-test and Chi-square tests were used when appropriate to compare the groups. Results: Fifty-seven (32.7% patients attained remission after at least 1 year of thionamide therapy. Of these, 11 (19.2% patients relapsed within 1 year. Age, gender, goiter, and presence of extrathyroidal manifestations were not associated with remission. Higher values of Tc uptake were positively associated with remission (P- 0.02. Time to achievement of normal thyroid function and composite dose: Time scores were significantly associated with remission (P - 0.05 and P - 0.01, respectively. Patients with lower FT4 at presentation had a higher chance of remission (P - 0.01. The relapse rates were lower than previously reported in the literature. A higher Tc uptake was found to be significantly associated with relapse also (P - 0.009. Conclusion: The prognostic factors associated with remission in Graves's disease in this South Indian study are not the same as that reported in Western literature. Tc scintigraphy may have an additional role in identifying people who are likely to undergo remission and thus predict the outcome of Grave's disease.

  3. Seismic prediction on the favorable efficient development areas of the Longwangmiao Fm gas reservoir in the Gaoshiti–Moxi area, Sichuan Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangrong Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Lower Cambrian Longwangmiao Fm gas reservoir in the Gaoshiti–Moxi area, the Sichuan Basin, is a super giant monoblock marine carbonate gas reservoir with its single size being the largest in China. The key to the realization of high and stable production gas wells in this gas reservoir is to identify accurately high-permeability zones where there are dissolved pores or dissolved pores are superimposed with fractures. However, high quality dolomite reservoirs are characterized by large burial depth and strong heterogeneity, so reservoir prediction is of difficult. In this paper, related seismic researches were carried out and supporting technologies were developed as follows. First, a geologic model was built after an analysis of the existing data and forward modeling was carried out to establish a reservoir seismic response model. Second, by virtue of well-oriented amplitude processing technology, spherical diffusion compensation factor was obtained based on VSP well logging data and the true amplitude of seismic data was recovered. Third, the resolution of deep seismic data was improved by using the well-oriented high-resolution frequency-expanding technology and prestack time migration data of high quality was acquired. And fourth, multiple shoal facies reservoirs were traced by using the global automatic seismic interpretation technology which is based on stratigraphic model, multiple reservoirs which are laterally continuous and vertically superimposed could be predicted, and the areal distribution of high quality reservoirs could be described accurately and efficiently. By virtue of the supporting technologies, drilling trajectory is positioned accurately, and the deployed development wells all have high yield. These technologies also promote the construction of a modern supergiant gas field of tens of billions of cubic meters.

  4. Factors predicting organochlorine pesticide levels in pregnant Latina women living in a United States agricultural area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradman, Asa; Schwartz, Jackie M.; Fenster, Laura; Barr, Dana B.; Holland, Nina T.; Eskenazi, Brenda

    2015-01-01

    Organochlorine (OC) pesticide use was restricted starting in the 1970s in developed countries and the 1980s and 1990s in developing countries. Current exposure to OC pesticides – DDT, lindane (99% pure gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (γ-HCH)), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) – occurs on a limited basis. We measured p,p′-DDE, p,p′-DDT, o,p′-DDT, HCB, beta (β)-HCH (the most persistent isomer of technical-grade HCH) and γ-HCH in serum from 426 low-income pregnant Latina women living in an agricultural community in California. Detection frequencies were 94-100%. Median levels (ng/g-lipid) of p,p′-DDE (1,052), p,p′-DDT (13), β-HCH (37) and HCB (65) were significantly higher than U.S. population levels. Multivariate analyses of p,p′-DDE, p,p′-DDT, o,p′-DDT, β-HCH and HCB indicate that time spent living outside the United States and birthplace in an area of Mexico with recent use of OC pesticides were significant predictors of exposure. Time spent living in the United States was associated with increased serum levels of p,p′-DDE and β-HCH, but the increase for each year lived in the United States was lower than for each year lived outside the United States. There was no difference between the increase of HCB levels over time spent in or outside the United States, suggesting current and thus preventable exposure routes. However, we observed no associations between serum levels of any OC compound and current intake of saturated fat or agricultural take-home exposure risk factors. Lactation history and recent weight gain were negatively associated with serum levels of some, but not all OC compounds studied. Smoking history was borderline associated with elevated HCB levels. We observed no significant associations with body mass index. Although the weight of evidence from this study indicates that most exposure occurred prior to moving to the United States, the results for HCB indicate the possibility of ongoing exposure in this country. PMID:17033681

  5. An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

    2010-07-01

    This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO{sub 2} exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO{sub 2} fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO{sub 2} uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO{sub 2} exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

  6. An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO 2 exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO 2 fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO 2 uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO 2 exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

  7. Predicted Liquefaction in the Greater Oakland and Northern Santa Clara Valley Areas for a Repeat of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, T. L.; Noce, T. E.; Bennett, M. J.

    2008-12-01

    Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by latest Holocene alluvial fan levee deposits where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906. The liquefaction scenario maps were created with ArcGIS ModelBuilder. Peak ground accelerations first were computed with the new Boore and Atkinson NGA attenuation relation (2008, Earthquake Spectra, 24:1, p. 99-138), using VS30 to account for local site response. Spatial liquefaction probabilities were then estimated using the predicted ground motions

  8. Wavefront coherence area for predicting visual acuity of post-PRK and post-PARK refractive surgery patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Daniel D.; van de Pol, Corina; Barsky, Brian A.; Klein, Stanley A.

    1999-06-01

    Many current corneal topography instruments (called videokeratographs) provide an `acuity index' based on corneal smoothness to analyze expected visual acuity. However, post-refractive surgery patients often exhibit better acuity than is predicted by such indices. One reason for this is that visual acuity may not necessarily be determined by overall corneal smoothness but rather by having some part of the cornea able to focus light coherently onto the fovea. We present a new method of representing visual acuity by measuring the wavefront aberration, using principles from both ray and wave optics. For each point P on the cornea, we measure the size of the associated coherence area whose optical path length (OPL), from a reference plane to P's focus, is within a certain tolerance of the OPL for P. We measured the topographies and vision of 62 eyes of patients who had undergone the corneal refractive surgery procedures of photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and photorefractive astigmatic keratectomy (PARK). In addition to high contrast visual acuity, our vision tests included low contrast and low luminance to test the contribution of the PRK transition zone. We found our metric for visual acuity to be better than all other metrics at predicting the acuity of low contrast and low luminance. However, high contrast visual acuity was poorly predicted by all of the indices we studied, including our own. The indices provided by current videokeratographs sometimes fail for corneas whose shape differs from simple ellipsoidal models. This is the case with post-PRK and post-PARK refractive surgery patients. Our alternative representation that displays the coherence area of the wavefront has considerable advantages, and promises to be a better predictor of low contrast and low luminance visual acuity than current shape measures.

  9. Factors associated with poor nutritional status among community dwelling Lebanese elderly subjects living in rural areas: results of the AMEL study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulos, C; Salameh, P; Barberger-Gateau, P

    2014-05-01

    This study aimed to assess the nutritional status, measured by MNA, and its association with socio-demographic indicators and health related characteristics of a representative sample of community dwelling elderly subjects. Cross-sectional study. Community dwelling elderly individuals living in rural communities in Lebanon. 1200 elderly individuals aged 65 years or more. Socio-demographic indicators and health related characteristics were recorded during a standardized interview. Nutritional status was assessed through Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA). The 5-item GDS score and the WHO-5-A score were used to assess mood, whereas Mini Mental Status (MMS) was applied to evaluate cognitive status. The prevalence of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition was 8.0% respective 29.1% of the study sample. Malnutrition was significantly more frequent in elderly subjects aged more than 85 years, in females, widowed and illiterate people. Moreover, participants who reported lower financial status were more often malnourished or at risk of malnutrition. Regarding health status, poor nutritional status was more common among those reporting more than three chronic diseases, taking more than three drugs daily, suffering from chronic pain and those who had worse oral health status. Also, depressive disorders and cognitive dysfunction were significantly related to malnutrition. After multivariate analysis following variables remained independently associated to malnutrition: living in the governorate of Nabatieh (ORa 2.30, 95% CI 1.35 -3.93), reporting higher income (ORa 0.77, 95% CI 0.61-0.97), higher number of comorbidities (ORa 1.22, 95% CI 1.12-1.32), chronic pain (ORa 1.72, 95% CI 1.24-2.39), and depressive disorders (ORa 1.66, 95% CI 1.47-1.88). On the other hand, better cognitive functioning was strongly associated with decreased nutritional risk (ORa 0.27, 95%CI 0.17-0.43). Our results highlighted the close relationship between health status and malnutrition. The

  10. Increasing mortality from ischaemic heart disease in China from 2004 to 2010: disproportionate rise in rural areas and elderly subjects. 438 million person-years follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaofei; Khan, Arshad A; Haq, Ehtesham Ul; Rahim, Aadil; Hu, Dayi; Attia, John; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Ma, Xiaoyan; Ding, Rongjing; Boyle, Andrew J

    2017-01-01

    We sought to ascertain the changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) from 2004 to 2010 in China as the sheer size of China's population makes disease patterns relevant globally. Data on IHD mortality were obtained from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention National Disease Surveillance Point System, which includes 161 counties and a population of over 73 million-a representative sample of over 6% of the entire population of China. Both crude and World Health Organization (WHO)-standardized IHD mortality increased, in both men and women and in both urban and rural locations, during the study period, demonstrating the effect of urbanization, economic growth, and epidemiological transition on cardiovascular health. WHO-standardized IHD mortality increased for rural males by 9.2% per year (95% CI: 6.7-11.7%; P China, in contrast to decreasing in other countries. This is largely driven by increasing IHD mortality in rural areas and subjects over 80 years old. This needs urgent attention by public health workers and policymakers. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Validating computationally predicted TMS stimulation areas using direct electrical stimulation in patients with brain tumors near precentral regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opitz, Alexander; Zafar, Noman; Bockermann, Volker; Rohde, Veit; Paulus, Walter

    2014-01-01

    The spatial extent of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is of paramount interest for all studies employing this method. It is generally assumed that the induced electric field is the crucial parameter to determine which cortical regions are excited. While it is difficult to directly measure the electric field, one usually relies on computational models to estimate the electric field distribution. Direct electrical stimulation (DES) is a local brain stimulation method generally considered the gold standard to map structure-function relationships in the brain. Its application is typically limited to patients undergoing brain surgery. In this study we compare the computationally predicted stimulation area in TMS with the DES area in six patients with tumors near precentral regions. We combine a motor evoked potential (MEP) mapping experiment for both TMS and DES with realistic individual finite element method (FEM) simulations of the electric field distribution during TMS and DES. On average, stimulation areas in TMS and DES show an overlap of up to 80%, thus validating our computational physiology approach to estimate TMS excitation volumes. Our results can help in understanding the spatial spread of TMS effects and in optimizing stimulation protocols to more specifically target certain cortical regions based on computational modeling.

  12. Numerical climate modeling and verification of selected areas for heat waves of Pakistan using ensemble prediction system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amna, S; Samreen, N; Khalid, B; Shamim, A

    2013-01-01

    Depending upon the topography, there is an extreme variation in the temperature of Pakistan. Heat waves are the Weather-related events, having significant impact on the humans, including all socioeconomic activities and health issues as well which changes according to the climatic conditions of the area. The forecasting climate is of prime importance for being aware of future climatic changes, in order to mitigate them. The study used the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the purpose of modeling seasonal weather hind-cast of three selected areas i.e., Islamabad, Jhelum and Muzaffarabad. This research was purposely carried out in order to suggest the most suitable climate model for Pakistan. Real time and simulated data of five General Circulation Models i.e., ECMWF, ERA-40, MPI, Meteo France and UKMO for selected areas was acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department. Data incorporated constituted the statistical temperature records of 32 years for the months of June, July and August. This study was based on EPS to calculate probabilistic forecasts produced by single ensembles. Verification was done out to assess the quality of the forecast t by using standard probabilistic measures of Brier Score, Brier Skill Score, Cross Validation and Relative Operating Characteristic curve. The results showed ECMWF the most suitable model for Islamabad and Jhelum; and Meteo France for Muzaffarabad. Other models have significant results by omitting particular initial conditions.

  13. Landslide prediction using combined deterministic and probabilistic methods in hilly area of Mt. Medvednica in Zagreb City, Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunxiang; Watanabe, Naoki; Marui, Hideaki

    2013-04-01

    The hilly slopes of Mt. Medvednica are stretched in the northwestern part of Zagreb City, Croatia, and extend to approximately 180km2. In this area, landslides, e.g. Kostanjek landslide and Črešnjevec landslide, have brought damage to many houses, roads, farmlands, grassland and etc. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the potential landslides and to enhance landslide inventory for hazard mitigation and security management of local society in this area. We combined deterministic method and probabilistic method to assess potential landslides including their locations, size and sliding surfaces. Firstly, this study area is divided into several slope units that have similar topographic and geological characteristics using the hydrology analysis tool in ArcGIS. Then, a GIS-based modified three-dimensional Hovland's method for slope stability analysis system is developed to identify the sliding surface and corresponding three-dimensional safety factor for each slope unit. Each sliding surface is assumed to be the lower part of each ellipsoid. The direction of inclination of the ellipsoid is considered to be the same as the main dip direction of the slope unit. The center point of the ellipsoid is randomly set to the center point of a grid cell in the slope unit. The minimum three-dimensional safety factor and corresponding critical sliding surface are also obtained for each slope unit. Thirdly, since a single value of safety factor is insufficient to evaluate the slope stability of a slope unit, the ratio of the number of calculation cases in which the three-dimensional safety factor values less than 1.0 to the total number of trial calculation is defined as the failure probability of the slope unit. If the failure probability is more than 80%, the slope unit is distinguished as 'unstable' from other slope units and the landslide hazard can be mapped for the whole study area.

  14. [Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

    2017-12-01

    The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

  15. Multiplicative synergistic risk of hepatocellular carcinoma development among hepatitis B and C co-infected subjects in HBV endemic area: a community-based cohort study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Jin-Kyoung; Shin, Hai-Rim; Lim, Min Kyung; Cho, Heeyoun; Kim, Dong-Il; Jee, Youngmee; Yun, Haesun; Yoo, Keun-Young

    2012-01-01

    There has been limited study on the effect of infection with different hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemic regions of Asia. Hazard ratios of HCC development were estimated for HBV and HCV co-infected subjects among a community-based prospective cohort. HCV genotype was determined in HCV RNA-positive samples. Incident HCC cases were identified through linkage to the cancer registry. HCC incidence was 79 per 100,000 person-years in the study population (50 incident cases among 6,694 individuals within 63,170 person-years with an average of 9.4 years of follow-up); seroprevalence of HBsAg and anti-HCV was 5.2% and 5.6%. Adjusted hazard ratios of HCC by HBsAg positivity and anti-HCV positivity were 13.3 (CI: 7.3-24.4) and 6.7 (CI: 3.6-12.6). HRs of HBV and HCV monoinfection, and HBV/HCV coinfection were 17.1 (CI: 8.4-34.8), 10.4 (CI: 4.9-22.1) and 115.0 (CI: 32.5-407.3). Multiplicative synergistic effect of HBV/HCV coinfection on HCC risk was also observed (synergy index: 4.5, CI: 1.3-15.5). Infection with HCV genotype 1 (HR: 29.7, CI: 13.6-46.8) and mixed infection with genotype 1 and 2 (HR: 68.7, CI: 16.4-288.4) significantly elevated HCC risk, much higher than HBV infection. The effect of differences in HCV genotype and the multiplicative synergistic effect of HBV/HCV coinfection on HCC risk shown in the present study underline the need for comprehensive identification of hepatitis infection status in order to prevent and control HCC in this HBV endemic area

  16. Biological monitoring of environmental exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in subjects living in the area of recycling electronic garbage, in Southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yu; Zhang, Wenbing; Fan, Ruifang; Sheng, Guoying; Fu, Jiamo

    2014-01-01

    The study was undertaken to evaluate the environmental exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in subjects living in the area of recycling electronic garbage in Southern China and research the influence of environment smoke tobacco (EST) to people through active and passive smoking. Urinary concentrations of 2-hydroxynaphthalene, 2-hydoxyfluorene, 9-hydroxyphenanthrene, and 1-hydroxypyrene were determined in 141 randomly selected voluntary residents aged 13 to 81 years in two polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-exposed groups, two control groups, and an EST research group. The concentrations of 2-hydroxynaphthalene, 2-hydoxyfluorene, 9-hydroxyphenanthrene, and 1-hydroxypyrene in PAH-exposed groups are significantly higher (pelectronic garbage (1.1 μmol/mol creatinine) is a little higher than those of iron foundry workers, automobile repair workers, and firefighters. Mean value of 2-hydroxynaphthalene (11.3 μmol/mol creatinine) is much higher than that of shipyard and aircraft maintenance and much lower than some occupational exposure, such as coking batteries, sorting department, and distillation department in coking plant. Some metabolites of PAHs (PAHm) are significantly elevated through active and passive smoking, while the influence of EST to other PAHm is not statistically significant. 2-Hydroxynaphthalene, 2-hydoxyfluorene, 9-hydroxyphenanthrene, and 1-hydroxypyrene in the urine of smokers are, respectively, 3.9, 1.9, 1.4, and 1.9 times to those of nonsmokers. In nonsmokers, passive smokers excreted 1.1, 1.5, 1.9, and 1.5 times of 2-hydroxynaphthalene, 2-hydoxyfluorene, 9-hydroxyphenanthrene, and 1-hydroxypyrene compared to nonpassive smokers.

  17. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative uncertainty for sediment size in the New York offshore planning area by NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size prediction uncertainty from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also...

  18. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative uncertainty for seabird diversity metrics in the New York offshore planning area by NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...

  19. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird species richness in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird species richness, or number of species, predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area....

  20. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative seabird abundance in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...

  1. Alcohol levels do not accurately predict physical or mental impairment in ethanol-tolerant subjects: relevance to emergency medicine and dram shop laws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, James R; Dollard, Denis

    2010-12-01

    The human body and the central nervous system can develop tremendous tolerance to ethanol. Mental and physical dysfunctions from ethanol, in an alcohol-tolerant individual, do not consistently correlate with ethanol levels traditionally used to define intoxication, or even lethality, in a nontolerant subject. Attempting to relate observed signs of alcohol intoxication or impairment, or to evaluate sobriety, by quantifying blood alcohol levels can be misleading, if not impossible. We report a case demonstrating the disconnect between alcohol levels and generally assigned parameters of intoxication and impairment. In this case, an alcohol-tolerant man, with a serum ethanol level of 515 mg/dl, appeared neurologically intact and cognitively normal. This individual was without objective signs of impairment or intoxication by repeated evaluations by experienced emergency physicians. In alcohol-tolerant individuals, blood alcohol levels cannot always be predicted by and do not necessarily correlate with outward appearance, overt signs of intoxication, or physical examination. This phenomenon must be acknowledged when analyzing medical decision making in the emergency department or when evaluating the ability of bartenders and party hosts to identify intoxication in dram shop cases.

  2. An evaluation of analysis methodologies for predicting cleavage arrest of a deep crack in an RPV subjected to PTS loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keeney-Walker, J.; Bass, B.R.

    1992-01-01

    Several calculational procedures are compared for predicting cleavage arrest of a deep crack in the wall of a prototypical reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized-thermal-shock (PTS) types of loading conditions. Three procedures examined in this study utilized the following models: (1) a static finite-element model (full bending); (2) a radially constrained static model; and (3) a thermoelastic dynamic finite-element model. A PTS transient loading condition was selected that produced a deep arrest of an axially-oriented initially shallow crack according to calculational results obtained from the static (full-bending) model. Results from the two static models were compared with those generated from the detailed thermoelastic dynamic finite-element analysis. The dynamic analyses modeled cleavage-crack propagation using node-release technique and an application-mode methodology based on dynamic fracture toughness curves generated from measured data. Comparisons presented here indicate that the degree to which dynamic solutions can be approximated by static models is highly dependent on several factors, including the material dynamic fracture curves and the propensity for cleavage reinitiation of the arrested crack under PTS loading conditions. Additional work is required to develop and validate a satisfactory dynamic fracture toughness model applicable to postcleavage arrest conditions in an RPV

  3. Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: an open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettina Ohse; Falk Huettmann; Stefanie M. Ickert-Bond; Glenn P. Juday

    2009-01-01

    Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca...

  4. Limited sampling strategies drawn within 3 hours postdose poorly predict mycophenolic acid area-under-the-curve after enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winter, B.C. de; Gelder, T. van; Mathôt, R.A.A.; Glander, P.; Tedesco-Silva, H.; Hilbrands, L.B.; Budde, K.; Hest, R.M. van

    2009-01-01

    Previous studies predicted that limited sampling strategies (LSS) for estimation of mycophenolic acid (MPA) area-under-the-curve (AUC(0-12)) after ingestion of enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) using a clinically feasible sampling scheme may have poor predictive performance. Failure of

  5. A Comparison of Chronic Periodontitis in HIV-Seropositive Subjects and the General Population in the Ga-Rankuwa Area, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razia Khammissa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of HIV infection on the prevalence and the rate of progression of chronic periodontitis is not clear. The aim of this study was to compare parameters associated with the severity of chronic periodontitis in terms of periodontal probing depths, gingival recession, plaque indexes, and bleeding indexes of HIV-seropositive subjects and healthy age-matched control subjects, and of HIV-seropositive subjects on highly active antiretroviral therapy and those not receiving such treatment. Two cohorts of subjects with chronic periodontitis were recruited for this study over a period of six months. There were 30 HIV-seropositive subjects, and 30 control subjects. Periodontal probing depths, gingival marginal recession, plaque indexes, and bleeding indexes were compared by HIV serostatus, the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ T-cell counts. All participants were black persons between the age of 18 and 45 and were of a similar socioeconomic status and age. The results of this study indicate that chronic periodontitis in HIV-seropositive subjects is similar in terms of mean periodontal probing depth, gingival marginal recession, plaque index, and bleeding index to that in healthy age-matched control subjects, and a low CD4+ T-cell count does not appear to be a risk factor for increased severity of chronic periodontitis.

  6. Prospective validation of FibroTest in comparison with liver stiffness for predicting liver fibrosis in Asian subjects with chronic hepatitis B.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beom Kyung Kim

    Full Text Available Diagnostic values of FibroTest (FT for hepatic fibrosis have rarely been assessed in Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB patients. We aimed to validate its diagnostic performances in comparison with liver stiffness (LS.From 2008 to 2010, 194 CHB patients who underwent liver biopsies along with FT and transient elastography were prospectively enrolled. Fibrosis stage was assessed according to the Batts and Ludwig system.To predict significant fibrosis (F≥2, advanced fibrosis (F≥3, and cirrhosis (F = 4, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs of FT were 0.903, 0.907, and 0.866, comparable to those of LS (0.873, 0.897, and 0.910, respectively. Optimized cutoffs of FT to maximize sum of sensitivity and specificity were 0.32, 0.52, and 0.68 for F≥2, F≥3, and F = 4, while those of LS were 8.8, 10.2, and 14.1 kPa, respectively. According to FT and LS cutoffs, 123 (63.4% and 124 (63.9% patients were correctly classified consistent with histological fibrosis (F1, F2, F3, and F4, respectively. Overall concordance between each fibrosis stage estimated by FT and LS was observed in 111 patients, where 88 were correctly classified with histological results. A combination formula adding LS to FT (LS+FT showed similar AUROC levels (0.885, 0.905, and 0.915, while another multiplying LS by FT (LS×FT showed the best AUROCs (0.941, 0.931, and 0.929 for F≥2, F≥3, and F4, respectively.FT provides good fibrosis prediction, with comparable outcomes to LS in Asian CHB patients. FT substantially reduces need for liver biopsy, especially when used in combination with LS.

  7. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Service life prediction. Development of models for predicting the service life of power plant components subject to thermomechanical creep fatigue; Lebensdauervorhersage. Entwicklung von Modellen zur Lebensdauervorhersage von Kraftwerksbauteilen unter thermisch-mechanischer Kriechermuedungsbeanspruchung. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cui, L.; Scholz, A. [Technische Univ. Darmstadt (Germany). Institut fuer Werkstoffkunde; Hartrott, P. von; Schlesinger, M. [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Werkstoffmechanik (IWM), Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany)

    2009-07-01

    Extensive use is made of massive components of heat resistant and highly heat resistant materials in installations of the power and heating industry. These components are exposed to varying thermomechanical stress as a result of ramping-up and down processes. In this research project two computer-assisted methods of predicting service life until crack initiation were extended to include cases of thermomechanical multi-axis stress conducive to creep fatigue and of superposition of high-cycle stress on power plant components. Investigations were limited to rotor steel of type X12CrMoWVNbN10-1-1. Complex thermomechanical multi-axis experiments were performed on round, notched and cruciform test specimens of close-to-life dimensions in order to demonstrate by experiment the validity of these models. The results of these calculations showed an acceptable degree of agreement between experiment and simulation for both models. Calculations on earlier TMF experiments performed at IfW on hollow specimens of 1%CrMoNiV showed good predictability for both the SARA and the ThoMat programme. Calculations on experiments performed at MPA Stuttgart on model bodies consisting of the same 1%CrMoNiV showed a predictability of acceptable variability considering the complexity of the stresses involved. A further outcome of this project is that the use of SARA appears universally suitable for the construction of new plants and in the service area, while the use of ThoMat appears suited for detail optimisation in the development process.

  9. A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and

  10. Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simón, Luis; Afonin, Alexandr; López-Díez, Lucía Isabel; González-Miguel, Javier; Morchón, Rodrigo; Carretón, Elena; Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Kartashev, Vladimir; Simón, Fernando

    2014-03-01

    Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Using Logistic Regression To Predict the Probability of Debris Flows Occurring in Areas Recently Burned By Wildland Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.

    2003-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of debris flows occurring in areas recently burned by wildland fires. Multiple logistic regression is conceptually similar to multiple linear regression because statistical relations between one dependent variable and several independent variables are evaluated. In logistic regression, however, the dependent variable is transformed to a binary variable (debris flow did or did not occur), and the actual probability of the debris flow occurring is statistically modeled. Data from 399 basins located within 15 wildland fires that burned during 2000-2002 in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and New Mexico were evaluated. More than 35 independent variables describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows were delineated from National Elevation Data using a Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Data describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were determined for each basin. These data were then downloaded to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression. (3) Relations between the occurrence/non-occurrence of debris flows and burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated and several preliminary multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combination produced the most effective model. The multivariate model that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows was selected. (4) The multivariate logistic regression model was entered into a GIS, and a map showing the probability of debris flows was constructed. The most effective model incorporates the percentage of each basin with slope greater than 30 percent, percentage of land burned at medium and high burn severity

  12. Development of a code MOGRA for predicting the migration of ground additions and its application to various land utilization areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, Hikaru; Uchida, Shigeo; Matsuoka, Syungo; Ikeda, Hiroshi; Hayashi, Hiroko; Kurosawa, Naohiro

    2003-01-01

    A Code MOGRA (Migration Of GRound Additions) is a migration prediction code for toxic ground additions including radioactive materials in a terrestrial environment, which consists of computational codes that are applicable to various evaluation target systems, and can be used on personal computers. The computational code has the dynamic compartment analysis block at its core, the graphical user interface (GUI) for model formation, computation parameter settings, and results displays. The compartments are obtained by classifying various natural environments into groups that exhibit similar properties. The functionality of MOGRA is being verified by applying it in the analyses of the migration rates of radioactive substances from the atmosphere to soils and plants and flow rates into the rivers. In this report, a hypothetical combination of land usage was supposed to check the function of MOGRA. The land usage was consisted from cultivated lands, forests, uncultivated lands, urban area, river, and lake. Each land usage has its own inside model which is basic module. Also supposed was homogeneous contamination of the surface land from atmospheric deposition of 137 Cs(1.0Bq/m 2 ). The system analyzed the dynamic changes of 137 Cs concentrations in each compartment, fluxes from one compartment to another compartment. (author)

  13. Using Simulated Ground Motions to Constrain Near-Source Ground Motion Prediction Equations in Areas Experiencing Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bydlon, S. A.; Dunham, E. M.

    2016-12-01

    Recent increases in seismic activity in historically quiescent areas such as Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas, including large, potentially induced events such as the 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK, earthquake, have spurred the need for investigation into expected ground motions associated with these seismic sources. The neoteric nature of this seismicity increase corresponds to a scarcity of ground motion recordings within 50 km of earthquakes Mw 3.0 and greater, with increasing scarcity at larger magnitudes. Gathering additional near-source ground motion data will help better constraints on regional ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and will happen over time, but this leaves open the possibility of damaging earthquakes occurring before potential ground shaking and seismic hazard in these areas are properly understood. To aid the effort of constraining near-source GMPEs associated with induced seismicity, we integrate synthetic ground motion data from simulated earthquakes into the process. Using the dynamic rupture and seismic wave propagation code waveqlab3d, we perform verification and validation exercises intended to establish confidence in simulated ground motions for use in constraining GMPEs. We verify the accuracy of our ground motion simulator by performing the PEER/SCEC layer-over-halfspace comparison problem LOH.1 Validation exercises to ensure that we are synthesizing realistic ground motion data include comparisons to recorded ground motions for specific earthquakes in target areas of Oklahoma between Mw 3.0 and 4.0. Using a 3D velocity structure that includes a 1D structure with additional small-scale heterogeneity, the properties of which are based on well-log data from Oklahoma, we perform ground motion simulations of small (Mw 3.0 - 4.0) earthquakes using point moment tensor sources. We use the resulting synthetic ground motion data to develop GMPEs for small earthquakes in Oklahoma. Preliminary results indicate that ground motions can be amplified

  14. Fatigue methodology for life predictions for the wheel-rail contact area in large offshore turret bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Lassen

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The present report presents a fatigue life prediction method for large roller bearings applied in the turret turn table for large loading buoy units. The contact points between wheel and rail in these bearings are subjected to a multi-axial fluctuating stress situation and both surface wear and fatigue cracking may occur. A methodology based on the Dang Van fatigue criterion is adopted. The criterion is based on an equivalent stress defined as a combination of the fluctuation of the shear stress from its mean value at a critical plane and the associated hydrostatic stress at the given time. The present work is supporting the theoretical model by extensive laboratory testing. Both full scale testing of wheel on rail and small scale testing for characterizing the steel material are carried out. An experimental program was carried out with the high strength stainless steel S165M. The Dang Van stress concept is applied in combination with the Random Fatigue Limit Method (RFLM for life data analyses. This approach gives the opportunity to include both finite lives and the run-outs in a rational manner without any presumption of the existence of a fatigue limit in advance of the data. This gives a non-linear S-N curve for a log-log scale in the very high cycle regime close to the fatigue limit. It is demonstrated how the scatter in fatigue limit decreases when the Dang Van stress concept is applied and that the fatigue limit is occurring beyond 107 cycles

  15. Similar circuits but different connectivity patterns between the cerebellum, basal ganglia, and supplementary motor area in early Parkinson's disease patients and controls during predictive motor timing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husárová, Ivica; Mikl, Michal; Lungu, Ovidiu V; Mareček, Radek; Vaníček, Jiří; Bareš, Martin

    2013-10-01

    The cerebellum, basal ganglia (BG), and other cortical regions, such as supplementary motor area (SMA) have emerged as important structures dealing with various aspects of timing, yet the modulation of functional connectivity between them during motor timing tasks remains unexplored. We used dynamic causal modeling to investigate the differences in effective connectivity (EC) between these regions and its modulation by behavioral outcome during a motor timing prediction task in a group of 16 patients with early Parkinson's disease (PD) and 17 healthy controls. Behavioral events (hits and errors) constituted the driving input connected to the cerebellum, and the modulation in connectivity was assessed relative to the hit condition (successful interception of target). The driving input elicited response in the target area, while modulatory input changed the specific connection strength. The neuroimaging data revealed similar structure of intrinsic connectivity in both groups with unidirectional connections from cerebellum to both sides of the BG, from BG to the SMA, and then from SMA to the cerebellum. However, the type of intrinsic connection was different between two groups. In the PD group, the connection between the SMA and cerebellum was inhibitory in comparison to the HC group, where the connection was activated. Furthermore, the modulation of connectivity by the performance in the task was different between the two groups, with decreased connectivity between the cerebellum and left BG and SMA and a more pronounced symmetry of these connections in controls. In the same time, there was an increased EC between the cerebellum and both sides of BG with more pronounced asymmetry (stronger connection with left BG) in patients. In addition, in the PD group the modulatory input strengthened inhibitory connectivity between the SMA and the cerebellum, while in the HC group the excitatory connection was slightly strengthened. Our findings indicate that although early PD

  16. Expanding subjectivities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard Andersen, Linda; Soldz, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    A major theme in recent psychoanalytic thinking concerns the use of therapist subjectivity, especially “countertransference,” in understanding patients. This thinking converges with and expands developments in qualitative research regarding the use of researcher subjectivity as a tool......-Saxon and continental traditions, this special issue provides examples of the use of researcher subjectivity, informed by psychoanalytic thinking, in expanding research understanding....

  17. Three-dimensional in vivo patellofemoral kinematics and contact area of anterior cruciate ligament-deficient and -reconstructed subjects using magnetic resonance imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Choongsoo S; Carpenter, R Dana; Majumdar, Sharmila; Ma, C Benjamin

    2009-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to test whether (1) the 3-dimensional in vivo patellofemoral kinematics and patellofemoral contact area of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL)-deficient knees are different from those of normal, contralateral knees and (2) ACL reconstruction restores in vivo patellofemoral kinematics and contact area. Ten ACL-deficient knees and twelve ACL-reconstructed knees, as well as the contralateral uninjured knees, were tested. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed at full extension and 40 degrees of flexion under simulated partial weight-bearing conditions. Six-degrees of freedom patellofemoral kinematics, patellofemoral contact area, and contact location were analyzed by use of magnetic resonance image-based 3-dimensional patellofemoral knee models. The patella in the ACL-deficient knees underwent significantly more lateral tilt during flexion (P contact areas of ACL-deficient knees at both the extended and flexed positions (37 +/- 22 mm(2) and 357 +/- 53 mm(2), respectively) were significantly smaller than those of contralateral knees (78 +/- 45 mm(2) and 437 +/- 119 mm(2), respectively) (P contact area of ACL-reconstructed knees in the extended position (86 +/- 41 mm(2)) was significantly larger (P contact centroid translation, and contact area showed coefficients of variation of less than 6.8%. ACL injuries alter patellofemoral kinematics including patellar tilt and patellar lateral translation, but ACL reconstruction with hamstring or allograft restores altered patellar tilt. ACL injuries reduce the patellofemoral contact area at both the extended and flexed positions, but ACL reconstruction enlarges the patellofemoral contact area at extension and restores the normal contact area at low angles of flexion. Level III, case-control study.

  18. Masticatory and cervical muscle tenderness and pain sensitivity in a remote area in subjects with a temporomandibular disorder and neck disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silveira, Anelise; Armijo-Olivo, Susan; Gadotti, Inae C; Magee, David

    2014-01-01

    To compare the masticatory and cervical muscle tenderness and pain sensitivity in the hand (remote region) between patients with temporomandibular disorders (TMD) and healthy controls. Twenty female subjects were diagnosed with chronic TMD, and 20 were considered healthy. Subjects completed the Neck Disability Index and Limitations of Daily Functions in a TMD questionnaire. Tenderness of the masticatory and cervical muscles and pain sensitivity in the hand were measured using an algometer. Three-way mixed analysis of variance (ANOVA) evaluated differences in muscle tenderness between groups. One-way ANOVA compared pain sensitivity in the hand between groups. Effect sizes were assessed using Cohen guidelines. Significantly increased masticatory and cervical muscle tenderness and pain sensitivity in the hand were found in subjects with TMD when compared with healthy subjects. Moderate to high effect sizes showed the clinical relevance of the findings. The results of this study have highlighted the importance of assessing TMD patients not only in the craniofacial region but also in the neck and other parts of the body. Future studies should focus on testing the effectiveness of treatments addressing the neck and the pain sensitivity in the hand in patients with TMD.

  19. Estimation of plasma area under the curve for etanidazole (SR 2508) in toxicity prediction and dose adjustment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Workman, P.; Ward, R.; Maughan, T.S.; Newman, H.F.; Bleehen, N.M.

    1989-01-01

    The hydrophilic 2-nitroimidazole radiosensitizer etanidazole is currently undergoing clinical evaluation. Although considerably less neurotoxic than misonidazole because of its rapid renal clearance and partial exclusion from the nervous system, total dose is limited by peripheral neuropathy. Monitoring plasma etanidazole concentration in patients to determine the area under the curve (AUC0-infinity) has been proposed as a method of predicting patients at risk, and of providing a quantitative basis for dose reduction in such patients. Successful application of this policy requires accurate assessment of AUC0-infinity. We have analyzed plasma data for 18 patients receiving 2 g/m2 etanidazole to determine the errors introduced in the estimation of AUC0-infinity caused by omitting selected time points from the analysis. A 'baseline' AUC0-infinity value was calculated by integration of the rate equation for the 2-compartment model using data points at 0, 15, and 30 min and 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, and 24 hr after the end of infusion. The mean +/- SD area for AUC0-infinity was 502 +/- 152 micrograms ml-1 h (2.35 +/- 0.71 mM.h). Omitting the zero or the 24 hr time point, the average errors were quite small (2.5% in both cases), but errors of up to 16.4 and 7.3%, respectively, were seen for individual patients. Leaving out both the 8 hr and 12 hr points at the same time gave a similar low average error of 2.9%, with a highest error of 7.3%. Omitting all data points after 4 hr, the mean error was 24.7% and 15 of 18 patients had errors in excess of 10%. In addition, failure to correct for infusion time results in an underestimation of AUC0-infinity averaging 4.5% (range 1.9-8.7%). The choice of sampling times for toxicological monitoring will depend upon the accuracy with which the AUC0-infinity must be known. Including all data points between 0 and 24 hr will minimize errors

  20. Cellular Automata Modelling in Predicting the Development of Settlement Areas, A Case Study in The Eastern District of Pontianak Waterfront City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhidayati, E.; Buchori, I.; Mussadun; Fariz, T. R.

    2017-07-01

    Pontianak waterfront city as water-based urban has the potential of water resources, socio-economic, cultural, tourism and riverine settlements. Settlements areas in the eastern district of Pontianak waterfront city is located in the triangle of Kapuas river and Landak river. This study uses quantitative-GIS methods that integrates binary logistic regression and Cellular Automata-Markov models. The data used in this study such as satellite imagery Quickbird 2003, Ikonos 2008 and elevation contour interval 1 meter. This study aims to discover the settlement land use changes in 2003-2014 and to predict the settlements areas in 2020. This study results the accuracy in predicting of changes in settlements areas shows overall accuracy (79.74%) and the highest kappa index (0.55). The prediction results show that settlement areas (481.98 Ha) in 2020 and the increasingly of settlement areas (6.80 Ha/year) in 2014-2020. The development of settlement areas in 2020 shows the highest land expansion in Parit Mayor Village. The results of regression coefficient value (0) of flooding variable, so flooding did not influence to the development of settlement areas in the eastern district of Pontianak because the building’s adaptation of rumah panggung’s settlements was very good which have adjusted to the height of tidal flood.

  1. Simulating Virtual Terminal Area Weather Data Bases for Use in the Wake Vortex Avoidance System (Wake VAS) Prediction Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Michael L.; Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2004-01-01

    During the research project, sounding datasets were generated for the region surrounding 9 major airports, including Dallas, TX, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, San Francico, CA, and Los Angeles, CA. The numerical simulation of winter and summer environments during which no instrument flight rule impact was occurring at these 9 terminals was performed using the most contemporary version of the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS) model nested from 36 km to 6 km to 1 km horizontal resolution and very detailed vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer. The soundings from the 1 km model were archived at 30 minute time intervals for a 24 hour period and the vertical dependent variables as well as derived quantities, i.e., 3-dimensional wind components, temperatures, pressures, mixing ratios, turbulence kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rates were then interpolated to 5 m vertical resolution up to 1000 m elevation above ground level. After partial validation against field experiment datasets for Dallas as well as larger scale and much coarser resolution observations at the other 8 airports, these sounding datasets were sent to NASA for use in the Virtual Air Space and Modeling program. The application of these datasets being to determine representative airport weather environments to diagnose the response of simulated wake vortices to realistic atmospheric environments. These virtual datasets are based on large scale observed atmospheric initial conditions that are dynamically interpolated in space and time. The 1 km nested-grid simulated datasets providing a very coarse and highly smoothed representation of airport environment meteorological conditions. Details concerning the airport surface forcing are virtually absent from these simulated datasets although the observed background atmospheric processes have been compared to the simulated fields and the fields were found to accurately replicate the flows

  2. Call Arrival Rate Prediction and Blocking Probability Estimation for Infrastructure based Mobile Cognitive Radio Personal Area Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeta Nathani

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Cognitive Radio usage has been estimated as non-emergency service with low volume traffic. Present work proposes an infrastructure based Cognitive Radio network and probability of success of CR traffic in licensed band. The Cognitive Radio nodes will form cluster. The cluster nodes will communicate on Industrial, Scientific and Medical band using IPv6 over Low-Power Wireless Personal Area Network based protocol from sensor to Gateway Cluster Head. For Cognitive Radio-Media Access Control protocol for Gateway to Cognitive Radio-Base Station communication, it will use vacant channels of licensed band. Standalone secondary users of Cognitive Radio Network shall be considered as a Gateway with one user. The Gateway will handle multi-channel multi radio for communication with Base Station. Cognitive Radio Network operators shall define various traffic data accumulation counters at Base Station for storing signal strength, Carrier-to-Interference and Noise Ratio, etc. parameters and record channel occupied/vacant status. The researches has been done so far using hour as interval is too long for parameters like holding time expressed in minutes and hence channel vacant/occupied status time is only probabilistically calculated. In the present work, an infrastructure based architecture has been proposed which polls channel status each minute in contrary to hourly polling of data. The Gateways of the Cognitive Radio Network shall monitor status of each Primary User periodically inside its working range and shall inform to Cognitive Radio- Base Station for preparation of minutewise database. For simulation, the occupancy data for all primary user channels were pulled in one minute interval from a live mobile network. Hourly traffic data and minutewise holding times has been analyzed to optimize the parameters of Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average prediction model. The blocking probability of an incoming Cognitive Radio call has been

  3. Intranasal Pharmacokinetic Data for Triptans Such as Sumatriptan and Zolmitriptan Can Render Area Under the Curve (AUC) Predictions for the Oral Route: Strategy Development and Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R.; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-01-01

    Limited pharmacokinetic sampling strategy may be useful for predicting the area under the curve (AUC) for triptans and may have clinical utility as a prospective tool for prediction. Using appropriate intranasal pharmacokinetic data, a Cmax vs. AUC relationship was established by linear regression...... models for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold-difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean positive error (MPE......), mean negative error (MNE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two triptans. Also, data from the mean concentration profiles at time points of 1 hour (sumatriptan) and 3 hours (zolmitriptan) were used...

  4. Prediction of 137Cs and 90Sr accumulation in milk of horses and sheep grazing the area adjacent to the 'Experimental Field' technical area of the Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gontarenko, I.A.; Spiridonov, S.I.; Mukusheva, M.K.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes mathematical models for 137 Cs and 90 Sr behavior in body of horses and sheep grazing the area adjacent to the 'Experimental Field' Technical Area of the Semipalatinsk test site. The models were parametrized on the basis of experimental data for those breeds of animals that are currently encountered within the Semipalatinsk test area. The predictive conclusions using devised models have shown that 137 Cs and 90 Sr concentration in milk of horses and sheep grazing the Experimental field are can exceed the adopted standards during a long period of time. (author)

  5. A comparison of human jaw muscle cross-sectional area and volume in long- and short-face subjects, using MRI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Spronsena, P. H.; van Ginkel, F. C.; van Schijndel, R. A.; Castelijns, J. A.; Tuinzing, D. B.

    Objective: In humans, the vertical craniofacial dimensions vary significantly with the size of the jaw muscles, which are regarded as important controlling factors of craniofacial growth. The functional relevance of the maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), indicating maximum muscle strength, is

  6. A comparison of human jaw muscle cross-sectional area and volume in long- and short-face subjects, using MRI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boom, H.P.W.; van Spronsen, P.H.; van Ginkel, F.C.; van Schijndel, R.A.; Castelijns, J.A.; Tuinzing, D.B.

    2008-01-01

    Objective In humans, the vertical craniofacial dimensions vary significantly with the size of the jaw muscles, which are regarded as important controlling factors of craniofacial growth. The functional relevance of the maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), indicating maximum muscle strength, is

  7. A comparison of human jaw muscle cross-sectional area and volume in long- and short-face subjects, using MRI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boom, H.P.; van Spronsen, P.H.; van Ginkel, F.C.; van Schijndel, R.A.; Castelijns, J.A.; Tuinzing, D.B.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: In humans, the vertical craniofacial dimensions vary significantly with the size of the jaw muscles, which are regarded as important controlling factors of craniofacial growth. The functional relevance of the maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), indicating maximum muscle strength, is

  8. Predicting live and dead tree basal area of bark beetle affected forests from discrete-return lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin C. Bright; Andrew T. Hudak; Robert McGaughey; Hans-Erik Andersen; Jose Negron

    2013-01-01

    Bark beetle outbreaks have killed large numbers of trees across North America in recent years. Lidar remote sensing can be used to effectively estimate forest biomass, but prediction of both live and dead standing biomass in beetle-affected forests using lidar alone has not been demonstrated. We developed Random Forest (RF) models predicting total, live, dead, and...

  9. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  10. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arizzi, Anna, E-mail: anna.arizzi@ouce.ox.ac.uk [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Viles, Heather [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Martín-Sanchez, Inés [Departamento de Microbiología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain); Cultrone, Giuseppe [Departamento de Mineralogía y Petrología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain)

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  11. Intranasal Pharmacokinetic Data for Triptans Such as Sumatriptan and Zolmitriptan Can Render Area Under the Curve (AUC) Predictions for the Oral Route: Strategy Development and Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-01-01

    Limited pharmacokinetic sampling strategy may be useful for predicting the area under the curve (AUC) for triptans and may have clinical utility as a prospective tool for prediction. Using appropriate intranasal pharmacokinetic data, a Cmax vs. AUC relationship was established by linear regression models for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold-difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean positive error (MPE), mean negative error (MNE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two triptans. Also, data from the mean concentration profiles at time points of 1 hour (sumatriptan) and 3 hours (zolmitriptan) were used for the AUC prediction. The Cmax vs. AUC models displayed excellent correlation for both sumatriptan (r = .9997; P AUCs (83%-85%) were within 0.76-1.25-fold difference using the regression model. The prediction of AUC values for sumatriptan or zolmitriptan using the concentration data that reflected the Tmax occurrence were in the proximity of the reported values. In summary, the Cmax vs. AUC models exhibited strong correlations for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The usefulness of the prediction of the AUC values was established by a rigorous statistical approach.

  12. The Brain Activity in Brodmann Area 17: A Potential Bio-Marker to Predict Patient Responses to Antiepileptic Drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yida Hu

    Full Text Available In this study, we aimed to predict newly diagnosed patient responses to antiepileptic drugs (AEDs using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging tools to explore changes in spontaneous brain activity. We recruited 21 newly diagnosed epileptic patients, 8 drug-resistant (DR patients, 11 well-healed (WH patients, and 13 healthy controls. After a 12-month follow-up, 11 newly diagnosed epileptic patients who showed a poor response to AEDs were placed into the seizures uncontrolled (SUC group, while 10 patients were enrolled in the seizure-controlled (SC group. By calculating the amplitude of fractional low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF of blood oxygen level-dependent signals to measure brain activity during rest, we found that the SUC patients showed increased activity in the bilateral occipital lobe, particularly in the cuneus and lingual gyrus compared with the SC group and healthy controls. Interestingly, DR patients also showed increased activity in the identical cuneus and lingual gyrus regions, which comprise Brodmann's area 17 (BA17, compared with the SUC patients; however, these abnormalities were not observed in SC and WH patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves indicated that the fALFF value of BA17 could differentiate SUC patients from SC patients and healthy controls with sufficient sensitivity and specificity prior to the administration of medication. Functional connectivity analysis was subsequently performed to evaluate the difference in connectivity between BA17 and other brain regions in the SUC, SC and control groups. Regions nearby the cuneus and lingual gyrus were found positive connectivity increased changes or positive connectivity changes with BA17 in the SUC patients, while remarkably negative connectivity increased changes or positive connectivity decreased changes were found in the SC patients. Additionally, default mode network (DMN regions showed negative connectivity increased changes or

  13. Experimental study of the strain state at the area of a surface defect in a steel cylindrical shell subjected to internal pressure

    OpenAIRE

    Бесчетников, Д. А.

    2014-01-01

    Experimental research of stress-strain state at the area of local volumetric surface defects of the pipeline systems is an important goal because results of the measurements are necessary for increasing of effectiveness of existing repair technologies using fiber reinforcement polymer composite materials. In this work the description of experiment carried out by the author is presented with statement of results. The experiment was devoted to strain gauging of a steel cylindrical shell with vo...

  14. Clinical utility of calf front hoof circumference and maternal intrapelvic area in predicting dystocia in 103 late gestation Holstein-Friesian heifers and cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiew, Mark W H; Megahed, Ameer A; Townsend, Jonathan R; Singleton, Wayne L; Constable, Peter D

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the clinical utility of measuring calf front hoof circumference, maternal intrapelvic area, and selected morphometric values in predicting dystocia in dairy cattle. An observational study using a convenience sample of 103 late-gestation Holstein-Friesian heifers and cows was performed. Intrapelvic height and width of the dam were measured using a pelvimeter, and the intrapelvic area was calculated. Calf front hoof circumference and birth weight were also measured. Data were analyzed using Spearman's correlation coefficient (rs), Mann-Whitney U test, and binary or ordered logistic regression; P dystocia (calving difficulty score = 4 or 5), with sensitivity = 0.50 and specificity = 0.93 at the optimal cutpoint for the ratio (>0.068 cm/cm(2)). Determining the ratio of calf front hoof circumference to maternal intrapelvic area has clinical utility in predicting the calving difficulty score in Holstein-Friesian cattle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Area under the curve predictions of dalbavancin, a new lipoglycopeptide agent, using the end of intravenous infusion concentration data point by regression analyses such as linear, log-linear and power models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhamidipati, Ravi Kanth; Syed, Muzeeb; Mullangi, Ramesh; Srinivas, Nuggehally

    2018-02-01

    1. Dalbavancin, a lipoglycopeptide, is approved for treating gram-positive bacterial infections. Area under plasma concentration versus time curve (AUC inf ) of dalbavancin is a key parameter and AUC inf /MIC ratio is a critical pharmacodynamic marker. 2. Using end of intravenous infusion concentration (i.e. C max ) C max versus AUC inf relationship for dalbavancin was established by regression analyses (i.e. linear, log-log, log-linear and power models) using 21 pairs of subject data. 3. The predictions of the AUC inf were performed using published C max data by application of regression equations. The quotient of observed/predicted values rendered fold difference. The mean absolute error (MAE)/root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r) were used in the assessment. 4. MAE and RMSE values for the various models were comparable. The C max versus AUC inf exhibited excellent correlation (r > 0.9488). The internal data evaluation showed narrow confinement (0.84-1.14-fold difference) with a RMSE models predicted AUC inf with a RMSE of 3.02-27.46% with fold difference largely contained within 0.64-1.48. 5. Regardless of the regression models, a single time point strategy of using C max (i.e. end of 30-min infusion) is amenable as a prospective tool for predicting AUC inf of dalbavancin in patients.

  16. Predictive value of fever and palmar pallor for P. falciparum parasitaemia in children from an endemic area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnemeier, Christof David; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Sarpong, Nimako; Loag, Wibke; Acquah, Samuel; Nkrumah, Bernard; Huenger, Frank; Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw; May, Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    Although the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa is reported to decline and other conditions, causing similar symptoms as clinical malaria are gaining in relevance, presumptive anti-malarial treatment is still common. This study traced for age-dependent signs and symptoms predictive for P. falciparum parasitaemia. In total, 5447 visits of 3641 patients between 2-60 months of age who attended an outpatient department (OPD) of a rural hospital in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, were analysed. All Children were examined by a paediatrician and a full blood count and thick smear were done. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to generate a clinical decision tree to predict malarial parasitaemia a7nd predictive values of all symptoms were calculated. Malarial parasitaemia was detected in children between 2-12 months and between 12-60 months of age with a prevalence of 13.8% and 30.6%, respectively. The CART-model revealed age-dependent differences in the ability of the variables to predict parasitaemia. While palmar pallor was the most important symptom in children between 2-12 months, a report of fever and an elevated body temperature of ≥37.5°C gained in relevance in children between 12-60 months. The variable palmar pallor was significantly (p<0.001) associated with lower haemoglobin levels in children of all ages. Compared to the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm the CART-model had much lower sensitivities, but higher specificities and positive predictive values for a malarial parasitaemia. Use of age-derived algorithms increases the specificity of the prediction for P. falciparum parasitaemia. The predictive value of palmar pallor should be underlined in health worker training. Due to a lack of sensitivity neither the best algorithm nor palmar pallor as a single sign are eligible for decision-making and cannot replace presumptive treatment or laboratory diagnosis.

  17. A novel hybrid evidential belief function-based fuzzy logic model in spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Lang Son city area (Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieu Tien Bui

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of an integrated evidential belief function (EBF-based fuzzy logic model for spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Lang Son city area (Vietnam. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. Then the landslide inventory map was randomly partitioned as a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, six landslide conditioning factors (slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance to faults, soil type, land use were prepared and fuzzy membership values for these factors classes were estimated using the EBF. Subsequently, fuzzy operators were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were validated and compared using the validation dataset. The results show that the lowest prediction capability is the fuzzy SUM (76.6%. The prediction capability is almost the same for the fuzzy PRODUCT and fuzzy GAMMA models (79.6%. Compared to the frequency-ratio based fuzzy logic models, the EBF-based fuzzy logic models showed better result in both the success rate and prediction rate. The results from this study may be useful for local planner in areas prone to landslides. The modelling approach can be applied for other areas.

  18. Ratio of ovarian stroma and total ovarian area by ultrasound in prediction of hyperandrogenemia in reproductive-aged Thai women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a diagnostic test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leerasiri, Pichai; Wongwananuruk, Thanyarat; Rattanachaiyanont, Manee; Indhavivadhana, Suchada; Techatraisak, Kitirat; Angsuwathana, Surasak

    2015-02-01

    To evaluate the performance of ovarian stromal area to total ovarian area (S/A) ratio for the prediction of biochemical hyperandrogenism in Thai women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A cross-sectional study was performed in 222 reproductive-aged Thai women with PCOS attending the Gynecologic Endocrinology Unit (GEU), Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital from May 2007 to January 2009. The patients were interviewed for medical history and examined for anthropometry and clinical hyperandrogenism. Venous blood samples were obtained for androgen profiles. An ovarian ultrasonogram was obtained via transvaginal or transrectal ultrasonography. The prevalences of clinical and biochemical hyperandrogenism were 48.6% and 81.1%, respectively. The S/A ratio at a cut-off point of 0.33 had modest predictability for hyperandrogenism, namely, 0.537 area under the receiver-operator curve, 36.6% sensitivity, 72.1% specificity, 83.8% positive predictive value (PPV) and 20.9% negative predictive value (NPV). The combination of clinical hyperandrogenism and S/A ratio improved the predictability for biochemical hyperandrogenism, with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 72.1%, 58.1%, 87.8% and 33.3%, respectively. The S/A ratio alone is not a good predictor for biochemical hyperandrogenism in Thai PCOS women attending GEU for menstrual dysfunction. The combination of S/A ratio and clinical hyperandrogenism has better performance than the S/A ratio alone to predict biochemical hyperandrogenism. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2014 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  19. Fear of happiness predicts subjective and psychological well-being above the behavioral inhibition system (BIS) and behavioral activation system (BAS) model of personality

    OpenAIRE

    Murat Yildirim; Hacer Belen

    2018-01-01

    Fear of happiness is an important psychological construct and has a significant effect on life outcomes such as well-being. This study sought to examine whether fear of happiness could explain variance in subjective well-being and psychological well-being domains after controlling for Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS) and Behavioral Activation System (BAS) Model of Personality. A total of 243 participants (189 males and 54 females) completed Fear of Happiness Scale, Positive-Negative Affect ...

  20. Finite Element Simulation and Assessment of Single-Degree-of-Freedom Prediction Methodology for Insulated Concrete Sandwich Panels Subjected to Blast Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    Precast /prestressed components, along with their connections to the structure, should be designed to withstand the blast to prevent falling or...response of the component. Connections used for precast components subjected to blast are normally designed with small to zero dynamic increase...methodology considers fixed boundary condition to be more similar to continuous beams or columns . Figure 71 and Table 14 present the comparisons

  1. Fear of happiness predicts subjective and psychological well-being above the behavioral inhibition system (BIS and behavioral activation system (BAS model of personality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Yildirim

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Fear of happiness is an important psychological construct and has a significant effect on life outcomes such as well-being. This study sought to examine whether fear of happiness could explain variance in subjective well-being and psychological well-being domains after controlling for Behavioral Inhibition System (BIS and Behavioral Activation System (BAS Model of Personality. A total of 243 participants (189 males and 54 females completed Fear of Happiness Scale, Positive-Negative Affect Schedule, Psychological Well-being Scales and BIS/BAS personality scales. In terms of correlational analyses, fear of happiness revealed significant negative correlations with positive affect, all domains of psychological well-being except purpose in life (autonomy, environmental mastery, personal growth, positive relations with others, and self-acceptance and BAS fun seeking dimension while a significant positive correlation was found with negative affect. With regard to hierarchical multiple regression analyses, fear of happiness accounted for a unique variance in both affective aspects of subjective well-being, namely positive and negative affect and three aspects of psychological well-being (autonomy, positive relations and self-acceptance after controlling for BIS/BAS personality model. These results suggested that fear of happiness is uniquely useful to both subjective and psychological well-being beyond the effect of the aspects of BIS/BAS personality.

  2. Cyclic softening as a parameter for prediction of remnant creep rupture life of a Indian reduced activation ferritic–martensitic (IN-RAFM) steel subjected to fatigue exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarkar, Aritra, E-mail: aritra@igcar.gov.in [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603102, Tamil Nadu (India); Vijayanand, V.D.; Shankar, Vani; Parameswaran, P.; Sandhya, R.; Laha, K.; Mathew, M.D.; Jayakumar, T. [Metallurgy and Materials Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam 603102, Tamil Nadu (India); Rajendrakumar, E. [Institute for Plasma Research, Bhat, Gandhinagar, Gujarat (India)

    2014-12-15

    Sequential fatigue-creep tests were conducted on Indian reduced activation ferritic–martensitic steel at 823 K leading to sharp decrease in residual creep life with increase in prior fatigue exposures. Extensive recovery of martensitic-lath structure taking place during fatigue deformation, manifested as cyclic softening in the cyclic stress response, shortens the residual creep life. Based on the experimental results, cyclic softening occurring during fatigue stage can be correlated with residual creep life, evolving in an empirical model which predicts residual creep life as a function of cyclic softening. Predicted creep lives for specimens pre-cycled at various strain amplitudes are explained on the basis of mechanism of cyclic softening.

  3. Predictive value of fever and palmar pallor for P. falciparum parasitaemia in children from an endemic area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof David Vinnemeier

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Although the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa is reported to decline and other conditions, causing similar symptoms as clinical malaria are gaining in relevance, presumptive anti-malarial treatment is still common. This study traced for age-dependent signs and symptoms predictive for P. falciparum parasitaemia. METHODS: In total, 5447 visits of 3641 patients between 2-60 months of age who attended an outpatient department (OPD of a rural hospital in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, were analysed. All Children were examined by a paediatrician and a full blood count and thick smear were done. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART model was used to generate a clinical decision tree to predict malarial parasitaemia a7nd predictive values of all symptoms were calculated. RESULTS: Malarial parasitaemia was detected in children between 2-12 months and between 12-60 months of age with a prevalence of 13.8% and 30.6%, respectively. The CART-model revealed age-dependent differences in the ability of the variables to predict parasitaemia. While palmar pallor was the most important symptom in children between 2-12 months, a report of fever and an elevated body temperature of ≥37.5°C gained in relevance in children between 12-60 months. The variable palmar pallor was significantly (p<0.001 associated with lower haemoglobin levels in children of all ages. Compared to the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI algorithm the CART-model had much lower sensitivities, but higher specificities and positive predictive values for a malarial parasitaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Use of age-derived algorithms increases the specificity of the prediction for P. falciparum parasitaemia. The predictive value of palmar pallor should be underlined in health worker training. Due to a lack of sensitivity neither the best algorithm nor palmar pallor as a single sign are eligible for decision-making and cannot replace

  4. User's manual for the Noise 1 area computer program for transportation noise prediction : report under project entitled "area computer model for transportation noise prediction : phase 1 : adaptation of MICNOISE".

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    It was found that the coordinates of the highways required for Noise 1 could be supplied on punched cards by the Photogrammetry Section of the Department. In preparing data for contour plotting, it was found advisable to divide the area into sectors,...

  5. Multiple biomarker responses in Prochilodus lineatus subjected to short-term in situ exposure to streams from agricultural areas in Southern Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vieira, Carlos Eduardo Delfino [Laboratório de Ecofisiologia Animal — Departamento de Ciências Fisiológicas, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, Paraná (Brazil); Costa, Patrícia Gomes [Laboratório de Microcontaminantes Orgânicos e Ecotoxicologia — Instituto de Oceanografia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); Lunardelli, Bruna; Fernandes de Oliveira, Luciana [Laboratório de Ecofisiologia Animal — Departamento de Ciências Fisiológicas, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, Paraná (Brazil); Costa Cabrera, Liziara da [Laboratório de Análise de Compostos Orgânicos e Metais — Escola de Química e Alimentos, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); Risso, Wagner Ezequiel [Laboratório de Ecofisiologia Animal — Departamento de Ciências Fisiológicas, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, Paraná (Brazil); Primel, Ednei Gilberto [Laboratório de Análise de Compostos Orgânicos e Metais — Escola de Química e Alimentos, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil); and others

    2016-01-15

    In order to assess the quality of streams susceptible to contamination by pesticides we apply biochemical and genotoxic biomarkers in the Neotropical fish Prochilodus lineatus submitted to in situ tests. Fish were caged, for 96 h, in two streams located in areas with intensive use of pesticides, the Apertados (AP) and the Jacutinga (JC), and in a small stream (Godoy stream — GD) found inside a forest fragment adjacent to a State Park. Biochemical parameters, such as biotransformation enzymes 7-ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) and glutathione-S-transferase (GST), non-protein thiols (NPSH), lipoperoxidation (LPO), protein carbonylation (PCO) and acetylcholinesterase (AChE) were evaluated in various fish organs, as well as genotoxic biomarkers (damage to DNA and occurrence of micronuclei and erythrocyte nuclear abnormalities). Samples of water and sediment were collected for analysis of metals (Cu, Cr, Pb, Ni, Mn, Cd and Zn), organochloride pesticides, and triazine and glyphosate herbicides. We observed an increase in liver GST activity in fish at AP and gill GST activity in fish at JC. An increase in liver LPO was also observed in fish exposed to AP and JC. The same animals also exhibited increased DNA damage and erythrocyte nuclear abnormalities (ENAs) compared to the fish kept in GD. A number of compounds showed concentrations higher than the permitted levels, in particular, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), its metabolites dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDD), hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCH), heptachloride, diclofluanid and aldrins. These pesticides were detected at higher concentrations in water and sediment samples from AP, followed by JC and GD. The Integrated Biomarker Response Index (IBR) indicated that AP and JC (AP: 21.7 > JC: 18.5 > GD: 12.6) have the worst environmental quality. Integrated biomarker analysis revealed that the alterations observed related well with the levels of environmental contaminants

  6. Hydrogeologic monitoring of the Paraíba do Sul river floodplain area subject to sand mining in the Tremembé municipality, SP, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Getulio Teixeira Batista

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available To characterize the geological, hydrogeological, hydrochemical, and hydrobacterial aspects of the surface and groundwater in the floodplain of the Paraíba do Sul river in Tremembé municipality, the water levels of the Quaternary sedimentary aquifer experimental site was monitored based on four wells and eight associated piezometers with daily measures of water levels in continuous operation since December 3, 2009. In addition, data from a modular weather station in operation since March 2010 and data from the quality of surface water and groundwater have been analyzed in the period between March 2010 and March 2011. The water balance between April 2010 and March 2011 was estimated to verify the periods of water deficiency and excess. Data loggers installed in the piezometers enabled daily groundwater levels monitoring to establish the influence of the Paraíba do Sul river in the water levels of the Quaternary sedimentary aquifer and also they allowed the determination of the water loss to the atmosphere. A hydrogeological model with simplified equations, based on hydraulics parameters obtained in the wells pump tests, was implemented to calculate the amount of daily evapotranspiration and the average distance of the water loss from the wells to the atmosphere. An evaporation rate of 83.4 m3/h from the open-pit sand mine located at 212.2 m and of 89.2 m3/h for the one at 885.0 m average distance from the monitoring wells were observed. Chemical and bacteriological analysis involving multiple parameters were performed in the period from March 2010 to March 2011 in groundwater collected in wells, in the open-pit mines and in the waters of the Paraíba do Sul river. The results allowed to observe the influences of the Paraíba do Sul river as well as the contamination from fertilizers and pesticides from the agriculture practiced in the floodplain area on the quality of the groundwater.

  7. Radon soil gas measurements in a geological versatile region as basis to improve the prediction of areas with a high radon potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabrt, Franz; Rechberger, Fabian; Schuff, Michael; Seidel, Claudia; Baumgartner, Andreas; Friedmann, Harry; Maringer, Franz Josef

    2014-01-01

    With the aim to predict the radon potential by geological data, radon soil gas measurements were made in a selected region in Styria, Austria. This region is characterised by mean indoor radon potentials of 130-280 Bq m -3 and a high geological diversity. The distribution of the individual measuring sites was selected on the basis of geological aspects and the distribution of area settlements. In this work, the radon soil gas activity concentration and the soil permeability were measured at 100 sites, each with three single measurements. Furthermore, the local dose rate was determined and soil samples were taken at each site to determine the activity concentration of natural radionuclides. During two investigation periods, long-term soil gas radon measurements were made to study the time dependency of the radon activity concentration. All the results will be compared and investigated for correlation among each other to improve the prediction of areas with high radon potential. (authors)

  8. Technetium uptake predicts remission and relapse in Grave's disease patients on antithyroid drugs for at least 1 year in South Indian subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singhal, Neha; Praveen, V P; Bhavani, Nisha; Menon, Arun S; Menon, Usha; Abraham, Nithya; Kumar, Harish; JayKumar, R V; Nair, Vasantha; Sundaram, Shanmugha; Sundaram, Padma

    2016-01-01

    Most of the information on remission related factors in Grave's disease are derived from Western literature. It is likely that there may be additional prognostic factors and differences in the postdrug treatment course of Grave's disease in India. To study factors which predict remission/relapse in Grave's disease patients from South India. Also to establish if technetium (Tc) uptake has a role in predicting remission. Records of 174 patients with clinical, biochemical, and scintigraphic criteria consistent with Grave's disease, seen in our Institution between January 2006 and 2014 were analyzed. Patient factors, drug-related factors, Tc-99m uptake and other clinical factors were compared between the remission and nonremission groups. Mann-Whitney U-test and Chi-square tests were used when appropriate to compare the groups. Fifty-seven (32.7%) patients attained remission after at least 1 year of thionamide therapy. Of these, 11 (19.2%) patients relapsed within 1 year. Age, gender, goiter, and presence of extrathyroidal manifestations were not associated with remission. Higher values of Tc uptake were positively associated with remission (P- 0.02). Time to achievement of normal thyroid function and composite dose: Time scores were significantly associated with remission (P - 0.05 and P - 0.01, respectively). Patients with lower FT4 at presentation had a higher chance of remission (P - 0.01). The relapse rates were lower than previously reported in the literature. A higher Tc uptake was found to be significantly associated with relapse also (P - 0.009). The prognostic factors associated with remission in Graves's disease in this South Indian study are not the same as that reported in Western literature. Tc scintigraphy may have an additional role in identifying people who are likely to undergo remission and thus predict the outcome of Grave's disease.

  9. Development and evaluation of SBLINE, a suite of models for the prediction of pollution concentrations from vehicles in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Namdeo, A.K.; Colls, J.J. [Environmental Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

    1996-09-06

    The assessment of air quality impacts from roadways is a major concern to urban planners, developers, health officials and engineers. This paper describes the development of a suite of models, called SBLINE, for prediction of pollution concentrations from vehicles in urban road networks. The first component of the suite is ROADFAC, an emission model for calculating emission rates for a road link with known vehicle fleet structure and operational details. ROADFAC can also calculate modal emission rates, caused by deceleration, idle, acceleration and cruise operational modes, by determining queue length and vehicle delay from traffic volume and signal phasing information. The other components of SBLINE are two dispersion models, called NOTLINE and CPB, for prediction of pollution concentrations contributed by different roadlinks in the network. These models use site geometry, meteorology, and traffic emissions calculated by ROADFAC to predict pollutant concentrations. The contribution from a given link is calculated by using NOTLINE if that link is situated in simple topography, or CPB is run if the link is inside a canyon or a cut-section. Finally, cumulative concentrations at any receptor location are calculated by adding the contributions from all roadlinks. SBLINE can be applied to any urban network of roads, with roadlinks located in either simple topography or street canyons. The program has been evaluated in one region of Leicester in the UK. The region represents a typical urban network of roads with some roads located in plain topography and some inside medium size canyons. Observed values of pollutant concentrations are compared with predictions made from detailed measurements of the vehicle population parameters, meteorology, and local street and building topography. Well-established statistical techniques have been used to show the potential of SBLINE for application to other road networks

  10. Progranulin plasma levels predict the presence of GRN mutations in asymptomatic subjects and do not correlate with brain atrophy: results from the GENFI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galimberti, Daniela; Fumagalli, Giorgio G; Fenoglio, Chiara; Cioffi, Sara M G; Arighi, Andrea; Serpente, Maria; Borroni, Barbara; Padovani, Alessandro; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Masellis, Mario; Tartaglia, Maria Carmela; van Swieten, John; Meeter, Lieke; Graff, Caroline; de Mendonça, Alexandre; Bocchetta, Martina; Rohrer, Jonathan D; Scarpini, Elio

    2018-02-01

    We investigated whether progranulin plasma levels are predictors of the presence of progranulin gene (GRN) null mutations or of the development of symptoms in asymptomatic at risk members participating in the Genetic Frontotemporal Dementia Initiative, including 19 patients, 64 asymptomatic carriers, and 77 noncarriers. In addition, we evaluated a possible role of TMEM106B rs1990622 as a genetic modifier and correlated progranulin plasma levels and gray-matter atrophy. Plasma progranulin mean ± SD plasma levels in patients and asymptomatic carriers were significantly decreased compared with noncarriers (30.5 ± 13.0 and 27.7 ± 7.5 versus 99.6 ± 24.8 ng/mL, p 61.55 ng/mL, the test had a sensitivity of 98.8% and a specificity of 97.5% in predicting the presence of a mutation, independent of symptoms. No correlations were found between progranulin plasma levels and age, years from average age at onset in each family, or TMEM106B rs1990622 genotype (p > 0.05). Plasma progranulin levels did not correlate with brain atrophy. Plasma progranulin levels predict the presence of GRN null mutations independent of proximity to symptoms and brain atrophy. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Return to Work: A Cut-Off of FIM Gain with Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score in Order to Identify Predictive Factors in Subjects with Acquired Brain Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franceschini, Marco; Massimiani, Maria Pia; Paravati, Stefano; Agosti, Maurizio

    2016-01-01

    Return to work (RTW) for people with acquired brain injury (ABI) represents a main objective of rehabilitation: this work presents a strong correlation between personal well-being and quality of life. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors that can predict RTW after ABI (traumatic or non- traumatic aetiology) in patients without disorders of consciousness (e.g. coma, vegetative or minimally conscious state) at the beginning of their admission to rehabilitation. At the end of a 6-month follow-up after discharge, data were successfully collected in 69 patients. The rehabilitation effectiveness (functional Recovery) between admission and discharge was assessed by Functional Independent Measure (FIM) gain, through the Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score (MRFS), which was obtained as follows: (discharge FIM-admission FIM)/(Maximum possible FIM-Admission FIM) x 100. The cut-off value (criterion) deriving from MRFS, which helped identify RTW patients, resulted in .659 (sn 88.9%; sp 52.4%). Considering the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the MRFS data, the multivariable binary logistic regression analysis presented 62.96% of correct RTW classification cases, 80.95% of non-RTW leading to an overall satisfactory predictability of 73.91%. The results of the present study suggest that occupational therapy intervention could modify cut-off in patients with an MFRS close to target at the end of an in-hospital rehabilitative program thus developing their capabilities and consequently surpassing cut-off itself.

  12. Return to Work: A Cut-Off of FIM Gain with Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score in Order to Identify Predictive Factors in Subjects with Acquired Brain Injury.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Franceschini

    Full Text Available Return to work (RTW for people with acquired brain injury (ABI represents a main objective of rehabilitation: this work presents a strong correlation between personal well-being and quality of life. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors that can predict RTW after ABI (traumatic or non- traumatic aetiology in patients without disorders of consciousness (e.g. coma, vegetative or minimally conscious state at the beginning of their admission to rehabilitation. At the end of a 6-month follow-up after discharge, data were successfully collected in 69 patients. The rehabilitation effectiveness (functional Recovery between admission and discharge was assessed by Functional Independent Measure (FIM gain, through the Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score (MRFS, which was obtained as follows: (discharge FIM-admission FIM/(Maximum possible FIM-Admission FIM x 100. The cut-off value (criterion deriving from MRFS, which helped identify RTW patients, resulted in .659 (sn 88.9%; sp 52.4%. Considering the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE and the MRFS data, the multivariable binary logistic regression analysis presented 62.96% of correct RTW classification cases, 80.95% of non-RTW leading to an overall satisfactory predictability of 73.91%. The results of the present study suggest that occupational therapy intervention could modify cut-off in patients with an MFRS close to target at the end of an in-hospital rehabilitative program thus developing their capabilities and consequently surpassing cut-off itself.

  13. Etiologies of Acute Undifferentiated Fever and Clinical Prediction of Scrub Typhus in a Non-Tropical Endemic Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Ho-Chul; Chon, Sung-Bin; Oh, Won Sup; Lee, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Ho-Jin

    2015-01-01

    Scrub typhus usually presents as acute undifferentiated fever. This cross-sectional study included adult patients presenting with acute undifferentiated fever defined as any febrile illness for ≤ 14 days without evidence of localized infection. Scrub typhus cases were defined by an antibody titer of a ≥ fourfold increase in paired sera, a ≥ 1:160 in a single serum using indirect immunofluorescence assay, or a positive result of the immunochromatographic test. Multiple regression analysis identified predictors associated with scrub typhus to develop a prediction rule. Of 250 cases with known etiology of acute undifferentiated fever, influenza (28.0%), hepatitis A (25.2%), and scrub typhus (16.4%) were major causes. A prediction rule for identifying suspected cases of scrub typhus consisted of age ≥ 65 years (two points), recent fieldwork/outdoor activities (one point), onset of illness during an outbreak period (two points), myalgia (one point), and eschar (two points). The c statistic was 0.977 (95% confidence interval = 0.960–0.994). At a cutoff value ≥ 4, the sensitivity and specificity were 92.7% (79.0–98.1%) and 90.9% (86.0–94.3%), respectively. Scrub typhus, the third leading cause of acute undifferentiated fever in our region, can be identified early using the prediction rule. PMID:25448236

  14. Sediment bacterial community structures and their predicted functions implied the impacts from natural processes and anthropogenic activities in coastal area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhiguo; Dai, Tianjiao; Tang, Yushi; Tao, Yile; Huang, Bei; Mu, Qinglin; Wen, Donghui

    2018-06-01

    Coastal ecosystem structures and functions are changing under natural and anthropogenic influences. In this study, surface sediment samples were collected from disturbed zone (DZ), near estuary zone (NEZ), and far estuary zone (FEZ) of Hangzhou Bay, one of the most seriously polluted bays in China. The bacterial community structures and predicted functions varied significantly in different zones. Firmicutes were found most abundantly in DZ, highlighting the impacts of anthropogenic activities. Sediment total phosphorus was most influential on the bacterial community structures. Predicted by PICRUSt analysis, DZ significantly exceeded FEZ and NEZ in the subcategory of Xenobiotics Biodegradation and Metabolism; and DZ enriched all the nitrate reduction related genes, except nrfA gene. Seawater salinity and inorganic nitrogen, respectively as the representative natural and anthropogenic factor, performed exact-oppositely in nitrogen metabolism functions. The changes of bacterial community compositions and predicted functions provide a new insight into human-induced pollution impacts on coastal ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Developing a Topographic Model to Predict the Northern Hardwood Forest Type within Carolina Northern Flying Squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus Recovery Areas of the Southern Appalachians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Evans

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

  16. Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Wolf (Canis lupus Breeding Areas in a Mountainous Region of Central Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Bassi

    Full Text Available Wolves (Canis lupus in Italy represent a relict west European population. They are classified as vulnerable by IUCN, though have increased in number and expanded their range in recent decades. Here we use 17 years of monitoring data (from 1993 to 2010 collected in a mountainous region of central Italy (Arezzo, Tuscany in an ecological niche-based model (MaxEnt to characterize breeding sites (i.e. the areas where pups were raised within home ranges, as detected from play-back responses. From a suite of variables related to topography, habitat and human disturbance we found that elevation and distance to protected areas were most important in explaining the locality of wolf responses. Rendezvous sites (family play-back response sites typically occurred between 800 and 1200 m a.s.l., inside protected areas, and were usually located along mountain chains distant from human settlements and roads. In these areas human disturbance is low and the densities of ungulates are typically high. Over recent years, rendezvous sites have occurred closer to urban areas as the wolf population has continued to expand, despite the consequent human disturbance. This suggests that undisturbed landscapes may be reaching their carrying capacity for wolves. This, in turn, may lead to the potential for increased human-wolf interactions in future. Applying our model, both within and beyond the species' current range, we identify sites both within the current range and also further afield, that the species could occupy in future. Our work underlines the importance of the present protected areas network in facilitating the recolonisation by wolves. Our projections of suitability of sites for future establishment as the population continues to expand could inform planning to minimize future wolf-human conflicts.

  17. The use of sonographic subjective tumor assessment, IOTA logistic regression model 1, IOTA Simple Rules and GI-RADS system in the preoperative prediction of malignancy in women with adnexal masses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koneczny, Jarosław; Czekierdowski, Artur; Florczak, Marek; Poziemski, Paweł; Stachowicz, Norbert; Borowski, Dariusz

    2017-01-01

    Sonography based methods with various tumor markers are currently used to discriminate the type of adnexal masses. To compare the predictive value of selected sonography-based models along with subjective assessment in ovarian cancer prediction. We analyzed data of 271 women operated because of adnexal masses. All masses were verified by histological examination. Preoperative sonography was performed in all patients and various predictive models includ¬ing IOTA group logistic regression model LR1 (LR1), IOTA simple ultrasound-based rules by IOTA (SR), GI-RADS and risk of malignancy index (RMI3) were used. ROC curves were constructed and respective AUC's with 95% CI's were compared. Of 271 masses 78 proved to be malignant including 6 borderline tumors. LR1 had sensitivity of 91.0%, specificity of 91.2%, AUC = 0.95 (95% CI: 0.92-0.98). Sensitivity for GI-RADS for 271 patients was 88.5% with specificity of 85% and AUC = 0.91 (95% CI: 0.88-0.95). Subjective assessment yielded sensitivity and specificity of 85.9% and 96.9%, respectively with AUC = 0.97 (95% CI: 0.94-0.99). SR were applicable in 236 masses and had sensitivity of 90.6% with specificity of 95.3% and AUC = 0.93 (95% CI 0.89-0.97). RMI3 was calculated only in 104 women who had CA125 available and had sensitivity of 55.3%, specificity of 94% and AUC = 0.85 (95% CI: 0.77-0.93). Although subjective assessment by the ultrasound expert remains the best current method of adnexal tumors preoperative discrimination, the simplicity and high predictive value favor the IOTA SR method, and when not applicable, the IOTA LR1 or GI-RADS models to be primarily and effectively used.

  18. Evaluating prediction uncertainty of areas contributing recharge to well fields of multiple water suppliers in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt River Basins, Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friesz, Paul J.

    2012-01-01

    Three river basins in central Rhode Island-the Hunt River, the Annaquatucket River, and the Pettaquamscutt River-contain 15 production wells clustered in 4 pumping centers from which drinking water is withdrawn. These high-capacity production wells, operated by three water suppliers, are screened in coarse-grained deposits of glacial origin. The risk of contaminating water withdrawn by these well centers may be reduced if the areas contributing recharge to the well centers are delineated and these areas protected from land uses that may affect the water quality. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Health, began an investigation in 2009 to improve the understanding of groundwater flow and delineate areas contributing recharge to the well centers as part of an effort to protect the source of water to these well centers. A groundwater-flow model was calibrated by inverse modeling using nonlinear regression to obtain the optimal set of parameter values, which provide a single, best representation of the area contributing recharge to a well center. Summary statistics from the calibrated model were used to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predicted areas contributing recharge to the well centers. This uncertainty analysis was done so that the contributing areas to the well centers would not be underestimated, thereby leaving the well centers inadequately protected. The analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution (probabilistic contributing areas) that differ from a single or deterministic contributing area. Groundwater flow was simulated in the surficial deposits and the underlying bedrock in the 47-square-mile study area. Observations (165 groundwater levels and 7 base flows) provided sufficient information to estimate parameters representing recharge and horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the glacial deposits and hydraulic conductance of streambeds. The calibrated value for recharge

  19. Long-term characteristics of geological conditions in Japan. Pt. 1. Fundamental concept for future's prediction of geological conditions and the subjects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Kazuhiro; Chigira, Masahiro.

    1997-01-01

    It is very important to evaluate the long-term stability of geological conditions such as volcanic activity, uplift-subsidence, earthquakes, faulting and sea level change when the long-term safety performance of HLW geological disposal is investigated. We proposed the extrapolation method using the geological date obtained in the geologic time of the last 500 ka to predict the future's tectonic movements in Japan. Furthermore, we extract geological conditions that would affect the long-term safety of HLW geological disposal with regard to direct and indirect radionuclide release scenarios. As a result, it was concluded that volcanic activity and tectonic movements including faulting and uplift-subsidence, should be considered and their surveying system and evaluating method should be developed. (author)

  20. Pharmacogenetics-based area-under-curve model can predict efficacy and adverse events from axitinib in individual patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Yoshiaki; Tsunedomi, Ryouichi; Fujita, Yusuke; Otori, Toru; Ohba, Mitsuyoshi; Kawai, Yoshihisa; Hirata, Hiroshi; Matsumoto, Hiroaki; Haginaka, Jun; Suzuki, Shigeo; Dahiya, Rajvir; Hamamoto, Yoshihiko; Matsuyama, Kenji; Hazama, Shoichi; Nagano, Hiroaki; Matsuyama, Hideyasu

    2018-03-30

    We investigated the relationship between axitinib pharmacogenetics and clinical efficacy/adverse events in advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and established a model to predict clinical efficacy and adverse events using pharmacokinetic and gene polymorphisms related to drug metabolism and efflux in a phase II trial. We prospectively evaluated the area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) of axitinib, objective response rate, and adverse events in 44 consecutive advanced RCC patients treated with axitinib. To establish a model for predicting clinical efficacy and adverse events, polymorphisms in genes including ABC transporters ( ABCB1 and ABCG2 ), UGT1A , and OR2B11 were analyzed by whole-exome sequencing, Sanger sequencing, and DNA microarray. To validate this prediction model, calculated AUC by 6 gene polymorphisms was compared with actual AUC in 16 additional consecutive patients prospectively. Actual AUC significantly correlated with the objective response rate ( P = 0.0002) and adverse events (hand-foot syndrome, P = 0.0055; and hypothyroidism, P = 0.0381). Calculated AUC significantly correlated with actual AUC ( P treatment precisely predicted actual AUC after axitinib treatment ( P = 0.0066). Our pharmacogenetics-based AUC prediction model may determine the optimal initial dose of axitinib, and thus facilitate better treatment of patients with advanced RCC.

  1. Re-evaluation of lung to thorax transverse area ratio immediately before birth in predicting postnatal short-term outcomes of fetuses with isolated left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia: A single center analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kido, Saki; Hidaka, Nobuhiro; Sato, Yuka; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Miyoshi, Kina; Nagata, Kouji; Taguchi, Tomoaki; Kato, Kiyoko

    2018-05-01

    We aimed to investigate whether the lung-to-thorax transverse area ratio (LTR) immediately before birth is of diagnostic value for the prediction of postnatal short-term outcomes in cases of isolated left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of fetal isolated left-sided CDH managed at our institution between April 2008 and July 2016. We divided the patients into two groups based on LTR immediately before birth, using a cut-off value of 0.08. We compared the proportions of subjects within the two groups who survived until discharge using Fisher's exact test. Further, using Spearman's rank correlation, we assessed whether LTR was correlated with length of stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, and supplemental oxygen. Twenty-nine subjects were included (five with LTR < 0.08, and 24 with LTR ≥ 0.08). The proportion of subjects surviving until discharge was 40% (2/5) for patients with LTR < 0.08, as compared with 96% (23/24) for those with LTR ≥ 0.08. LTR measured immediately before birth was negatively correlated with the postnatal length of stay (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, rs = -0.486), and the duration of supplemental oxygen (rs = -0.537). Further, the duration of mechanical ventilation was longer in patients with a lower LTR value. LTR immediately before birth is useful for the prediction of postnatal short-term outcomes in fetuses with isolated left-sided CDH. In particular, patients with prenatal LTR value less than 0.08 are at increased risk of postnatal death. © 2017 Japanese Teratology Society.

  2. Distinguishing medication-free subjects with unipolar disorder from subjects with bipolar disorder: state matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rive, Maria M; Redlich, Ronny; Schmaal, Lianne; Marquand, André F; Dannlowski, Udo; Grotegerd, Dominik; Veltman, Dick J; Schene, Aart H; Ruhé, Henricus G

    2016-11-01

    Recent studies have indicated that pattern recognition techniques of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data for individual classification may be valuable for distinguishing between major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD). Importantly, medication may have affected previous classification results as subjects with MDD and BD use different classes of medication. Furthermore, almost all studies have investigated only depressed subjects. Therefore, we focused on medication-free subjects. We additionally investigated whether classification would be mood state independent by including depressed and remitted subjects alike. We applied Gaussian process classifiers to investigate the discriminatory power of structural MRI (gray matter volumes of emotion regulation areas) and resting-state fMRI (resting-state networks implicated in mood disorders: default mode network [DMN], salience network [SN], and lateralized frontoparietal networks [FPNs]) in depressed (n=42) and remitted (n=49) medication-free subjects with MDD and BD. Depressed subjects with MDD and BD could be classified based on the gray matter volumes of emotion regulation areas as well as DMN functional connectivity with 69.1% prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy using the FPNs and SN did not exceed chance level. It was not possible to discriminate between remitted subjects with MDD and BD. For the first time, we showed that medication-free subjects with MDD and BD can be differentiated based on structural MRI as well as resting-state functional connectivity. Importantly, the results indicated that research concerning diagnostic neuroimaging tools distinguishing between MDD and BD should consider mood state as only depressed subjects with MDD and BD could be correctly classified. Future studies, in larger samples are needed to investigate whether the results can be generalized to medication-naïve or first-episode subjects. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley

  3. Tritium monitoring in groundwater and evaluation of model predictions for the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnett, D.B.; Bergeron, M.P.; Cole, C.R.; Freshley, M.D.; Wurstner, S.K.

    1997-08-01

    The Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) disposal site, also known as the State-Approved Land Disposal Site (SALDS), receives treated effluent containing tritium, which is allowed to infiltrate through the soil column to the water table. Tritium was first detected in groundwater monitoring wells around the facility in July 1996. The SALDS groundwater monitoring plan requires revision of a predictive groundwater model and reevaluation of the monitoring well network one year from the first detection of tritium in groundwater. This document is written primarily to satisfy these requirements and to report on analytical results for tritium in the SALDS groundwater monitoring network through April 1997. The document also recommends an approach to continued groundwater monitoring for tritium at the SALDS. Comparison of numerical groundwater models applied over the last several years indicate that earlier predictions, which show tritium from the SALDS approaching the Columbia River, were too simplified or overly robust in source assumptions. The most recent modeling indicates that concentrations of tritium above 500 pCi/L will extend, at most, no further than ∼1.5 km from the facility, using the most reasonable projections of ETF operation. This extent encompasses only the wells in the current SALDS tritium-tracking network

  4. A minimally invasive system for glucose area under the curve measurement using interstitial fluid extraction technology: evaluation of the accuracy and usefulness with oral glucose tolerance tests in subjects with and without diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Kazuhiko; Hirota, Yushi; Hashimoto, Naoko; Ogawa, Wataru; Sato, Toshiyuki; Okada, Seiki; Hagino, Kei; Asakura, Yoshihiro; Kikkawa, Yasuo; Kojima, Junko; Maekawa, Yasunori; Nakajima, Hiromu

    2012-06-01

    Recent studies have highlighted the importance of managing postprandial hyperglycemia, but adequate monitoring of postprandial glucose remains difficult because of wide variations in levels. We have therefore developed a minimally invasive system to monitor postprandial glucose area under the curve (AUC). This system involves no blood sampling and uses interstitial fluid glucose (IG) AUC (IG-AUC) as a surrogate marker of postprandial glucose. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of this system by comparing data with the findings of oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) in subjects with and without diabetes. The glucose AUC monitoring system was validated by OGTTs in 37 subjects with and 10 subjects without diabetes. A plastic microneedle array was stamped on the forearm to extract IG. A hydrogel patch was then placed on the pretreated area to accumulate IG. Glucose and sodium ion concentrations in the hydrogel were measured to calculate IG-AUC at 2-h postload glucose. Plasma glucose (PG) levels were measured every 30 min to calculate reference PG-AUC. IG-AUC correlated strongly with reference PG-AUC (r=0.93) over a wide range. The level of correlation between IG-AUC and maximum PG level was also high (r=0.86). The painless nature of the technique was confirmed by the response of patients to questionnaires. The glucose AUC monitoring system using IG provided good estimates of reference PG-AUC and maximum PG level during OGTTs in subjects with and without diabetes. This system provides easy-to-use monitoring of glucose AUC, which is a good indicator of postprandial glucose.

  5. Bioavailability of elemental iron powders to rats is less than bakery-grade ferrous sulfate and predicted by iron solubility and particle surface area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, James H; Newman, Samuel M; Hunt, Janet R

    2003-11-01

    Foods are fortified with elemental forms of iron to reduce iron deficiency. However, the nutritional efficacy of current, commercially produced elemental iron powders has not been verified. We determined the bioavailability of six commercial elemental iron powders and examined how physicochemistry influences bioavailability. Relative biological value (RBV) of the iron powders was determined using a hemoglobin repletion/slope ratio method, treating iron-deficient rats with repletion diets fortified with graded quantities of iron powders, bakery-grade ferrous sulfate or no added iron. Iron powders were assessed physicochemically by measuring iron solubility in hydrochloric acid at pH 1.0 and 1.7, surface area by nitrogen gas adsorption and surface microstructure by electron microscopy. Bioavailability from the iron powders, based on absolute iron intake, was significantly less than from FeSO4 (100%; P Electrolytic (54%; A-131, U.S.) > Electrolytic (46%; Electrolytic Iron, India) > H-Reduced (42%; AC-325, U.S.) > Reduced (24%; ATOMET 95SP, Canada) > CO-Reduced (21%; RSI-325, Sweden). Solubility testing of the iron powders resulted in different relative rankings and better RBV predictability with increasing time at pH 1.7 (R2 = 0.65 at 150 min). The prediction was improved with less time and lower pH (R2 = 0.82, pH 1.0 at 30 min). Surface area, ranging from 90 to 370 m2/kg, was also highly predictive of RBV (R2 = 0.80). Bioavailability of iron powders is less than bakery-grade ferrous sulfate and varies up to three times among different commercial forms. Solubility at pH 1.0 and surface area were predictive of iron bioavailability in rats.

  6. Prediction of the competitive effects of weeds on crop yields based on the relative leaf area of weeds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lotz, L. A. P.; Christensen, Svend; Cloutier, D.

    1996-01-01

    . alba whereas the density model did not. A parameter that allows the maximum yield loss to be smaller than 100% was mostly not needed to describe the effects of weed competition. The parameter that denotes the competitiveness of the weed species with respect to the crop decreased the later the relative......For implementation of simple yield loss models into threshold-based weed management systems, a thorough validation is needed over a great diversity of sites. Yield losses by competition wsth Sinapis alba L. (white mustard) as a model weed, were studied in 12 experiments in sugar beet (Beta vulgaris...... L.) and in 11 experiments in spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Most data sets were heller described by a model based on the relative leaf area of the weed than by a hyperbolic model based on weed density. This leaf area model accounted for (part of) the effect of different emerging times of the S...

  7. GIS-BASED EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL SITUATION IN THE COAL MINING AREAS WITH A CRITICAL TECHNOGENIC IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Pyankov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights the features of the creation of the basin GIS, developed to support the environmental monitoring, assessment and forecasting of negative consequences in the areas of technogenic disaster (on the example of abandoned Kizel coal basin, located in Perm Region, Russia. The world experience of applying GIS-technologies for solving environmental problems of coal-mining regions is also being discussed. The information basis and structure of the cartographic and attributive database of the Kizel coal basin GIS are presented. The main tasks of creating the GIS, including inventory of man-made impact sources, identification of the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of pollutants, quantification and mapping of the territory ecological status, forecasting of the environmental situation and planning of environmental measures have been identified. A system of spatial criteria for the integrated assessment of the territory ecological status within coal basins is proposed, which will allow monitoring of environmental changes and identifying areas with the critical environmental situation. These criteria include the pH value and the sulfates concentration in the streams, the complex of heavy metals, the species composition of microorganisms in surface waters, the area of degraded land and dead forest stands. The degree of negative impact of the abandoned coal mines on streams and groundwater is described, and the priority pollutants are identified.The estimates of the extent of contaminated streams, as well as areas of potential contamination of floodplain lands have been obtained using LANDSAT satellite imagery data. The significance of the creation of the algorithms for the integration of heterogeneous spatial information (ground-based and remote sensing observations for compiling synthetic maps that objectively estimate the ecological situation has been noted. 

  8. Deep Learning Predicts Correlation between a Functional Signature of Higher Visual Areas and Sparse Firing of Neurons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxu Zhuang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Visual information in the visual cortex is processed in a hierarchical manner. Recent studies show that higher visual areas, such as V2, V3, and V4, respond more vigorously to images with naturalistic higher-order statistics than to images lacking them. This property is a functional signature of higher areas, as it is much weaker or even absent in the primary visual cortex (V1. However, the mechanism underlying this signature remains elusive. We studied this problem using computational models. In several typical hierarchical visual models including the AlexNet, VggNet, and SHMAX, this signature was found to be prominent in higher layers but much weaker in lower layers. By changing both the model structure and experimental settings, we found that the signature strongly correlated with sparse firing of units in higher layers but not with any other factors, including model structure, training algorithm (supervised or unsupervised, receptive field size, and property of training stimuli. The results suggest an important role of sparse neuronal activity underlying this special feature of higher visual areas.

  9. Fe model predicting the increase in seismic resistance induced by the progressive FRP strengthening on already damaged masonry arches subjected to settlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdale, G.; Milani, G.

    2017-11-01

    In seismic regions, the retrofitting of masonry structures subjected to differential foundation settlements is of the upmost importance. This practice however poses significant challenges, most notably in the consideration of historical monuments where the integrity of the original structure must be weighted alongside public safety. Fiber reinforced polymers (FRPs), when appropriately applied, provide the potential to balance this duality of heritage preservation and modern safety. Using an advanced FE point of view, this work studies the seismic response of a progressive reinforcement strategy aimed at strengthening and controlling the failure mechanism for masonry arches that exist in a damaged state induced through a differential abutment settlement. A heterogeneous FE approach of a semi-circular block and mortar arch on continuously spreading supports is examined. In this model hinge formation is obtained by assigning a damage plasticity behavior to the mortar joints. Strategically placed FRPs, designed through the utilization of the Italian CNR recommendations for externally bonded FRP systems, are applied through the Abaqus birth and death approach and introduced to the spreading support model after settlement. Finally, the structural behavior of the reinforced and unreinforced models are examined for a seismic response.

  10. Blood pressure response to CPAP treatment in subjects with obstructive sleep apnoea: the predictive value of 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro-Grattoni, Anabel L; Torres, Gerard; Martínez-Alonso, Montserrat; Barbé, Ferran; Turino, Cecilia; Sánchez-de-la-Torre, Alicia; Cortijo, Anunciacion; Duran-Cantolla, Joaquin; Egea, Carlos; Cao, Gonzalo; Sánchez-de-la-Torre, Manuel

    2017-10-01

    The reduction in blood pressure (BP) with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is modest and highly variable. In this study, we identified the variables that predict BP response to CPAP.24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), C-reactive protein (CRP), leptin, adiponectin and 24-h urinary catecholamine were measured before and after 6 months of CPAP in obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients.Overall, 88 middle-aged, obese male patients with severe OSA (median apnoea-hypopnoea index 42 events·h -1 ) were included; 28.4% had hypertension. 62 patients finished the study, and 60 were analysed. The daytime diastolic BP (-2 mmHg) and norepinephrine (-109.5 nmol·day -1 ) were reduced after CPAP, but no changes in the 24-h BP, night-time BP, dopamine, epinephrine, CRP, leptin or adiponectin were detected. The nocturnal normotension was associated with an increased night-time-BP (+4 mmHg) after CPAP, whereas nocturnal hypertension was associated with a reduction of 24-h BP (-3 mmHg). A multivariate linear regression model showed differential night-time BP changes after CPAP. Specifically, low night-time heart rate (CPAP and support the usefulness of 24-h ABPM for OSA patients before treatment initiation. These results need to be confirmed in further studies. Copyright ©ERS 2017.

  11. Risk factors and prediction of inflammatory complications and local secondary osteoporosis in the bone structure of jaws in dental intraosseous implantation in healthy subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mashchenko I.S.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available As a result of complex clinical, immunologic and biochemical investigations of 48 patients peculiarities of development of inflammatory com¬plications, local osteoporosis and destruction of bone tissue after performed dental intraosseous implantantion were first revealed. It was shown that multiple surgical traumas of soft tissues of jaws and bone tissue of alveolar processes with putting 4 or more implants simultaneously may lead to reducing biocidity of mucosa of jaw tissues; this promotes lesion of oral cavity hygiene and development of inflammatory process in zone of periimplant. It is set that massive accumulation of soft coat and dental calculus in the area of implant, superconstruction and marked deficit of sIgA production of oral mucosa promote development of periimplant mucositis in remote post-operative period. A sharp production of secretory ІL -1β is a risk factor in formation of general-destructive process in a periimplant zone, development of dental periimplant.

  12. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  13. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane ( Grus monacha , n  = 33), White-naped Crane ( Grus vipio , n  = 40), and Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis , n  = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  14. Enhancement of motor learning by focal intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) of either the primary motor (M1) or somatosensory area (S1) in healthy human subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platz, Thomas; Adler-Wiebe, Marija; Roschka, Sybille; Lotze, Martin

    2018-01-01

    Motor rehabilitation after brain damage relies on motor re-learning as induced by specific training. Non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS) can alter cortical excitability and thereby has a potential to enhance subsequent training-induced learning. Knowledge about any priming effects of NIBS on motor learning in healthy subjects can help to design targeted therapeutic applications in brain-damaged subjects. To examine whether complex motor learning in healthy subjects can be enhanced by intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) to primary motor or sensory cortical areas. Eighteen young healthy subjects trained eight different arm motor tasks (arm ability training, AAT) once a day for 5 days using their left non-dominant arm. Except for day 1 (baseline), training was performed after applying an excitatory form of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (iTBS) to either (I) right M1 or (II) S1, or (III) sham stimulation to the right M1. Subjects were randomly assigned to conditions I, II, or III. A principal component analysis of the motor behaviour data suggested eight independent motor abilities corresponding to the 8 trained tasks. AAT induced substantial motor learning across abilities with generalisation to a non-trained test of finger dexterity (Nine-Hole-Peg-Test, NHPT). Participants receiving iTBS (to either M1 or S1) showed better performance with the AAT tasks over the period of training compared to sham stimulation as well as a bigger improvement with the generalisation task (NHPT) for the trained left hand after training completion. Priming with an excitatory repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation as iTBS of either M1 or S1 can enhance motor learning across different sensorimotor abilities.

  15. Bridging the gap between traffic generated health stressors in urban areas: Predicting xylene levels in EU cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlachokostas, Ch.; Michailidou, A.V.; Spyridi, D.; Moussiopoulos, N.

    2013-01-01

    Many citizens live, work, commute, or visit traffic intensive spaces and are exposed to high levels of chemical health stressors. However, urban conurbations worldwide present monitoring “shortage” – due to economical and/or practical constraints – for toxic stressors such as xylene isomers, which can pose human health risks. This “shortage” may be covered by the establishment of associations between rarely monitored substances such as xylenes and more frequently monitored (i.e. benzene) or usually monitored (i.e. CO). Regression analysis is used and strong statistical relationships are detected. The adopted models are applied to EU cities and comparison between measurements and predictions depicts their representativeness. The analysis provides transferability insights in an effort to bridge the gap between traffic-related stressors. Strong associations between substances of the air pollution mixture may be influential to interpret the complexity of the causal chain, especially if a synergetic exposure assessment in traffic intensive spaces is considered. -- Highlights: •EU cities present monitoring shortage for health stressors such as xylenes. •The multi-stressor multi-city stepwise regression modelling approach is presented. •Strong linear relationships between xylenes and toluene, benzene, CO are detected. •Modelling results are in good agreement with the respective available measurements. •Toluene seems the optimal marker to predict xylene trends in traffic environments. -- The multi-stressor, multi-city stepwise regression modelling approach develops reliable statistical associations which capture m,p-xylene and o-xylene trends in EU traffic intensive environments

  16. Watershed Modeling with ArcSWAT and SUFI2 In Cisadane Catchment Area: Calibration and Validation of River Flow Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwan Ridwansyah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Increasing of natural resources utilization as a result of population growth and economic development has caused severe damage on the watershed. The impacts of natural disasters such as floods, landslides and droughts become more frequent. Cisadane Catchment Area is one of 108 priority watershed in Indonesia. SWAT is currently applied world wide and considered as a versatile model that can be used to integrate multiple environmental processes, which support more effective watershed management and the development of better informed policy decision. The objective of this study is to examine the applicability of SWAT model for modeling mountainous catchments, focusing on Cisadane catchment Area in west Java Province, Indonesia. The SWAT model simulation was done for the periods of 2005 – 2010 while it used landuse information in 2009. Methods of Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2 (SUFI2 and combine with manual calibration were used in this study to calibrate a rainfall-runoff. The Calibration is done on 2007 and the validation on 2009, the R2 and Nash Sutchliffe Efficiency (NSE of the calibration were 0.71 and 0.72 respectively and the validation are 0.708 and 0.7 respectively. The monthly average of surface runoff and total water yield from the simulation were 27.7 mm and 2718.4 mm respectively. This study showed SWAT model can be a potential monitoring tool especially for watersheds in Cisadane Catchment Area or in the tropical regions. The model can be used for another purpose, especially in watershed management.

  17. Nurses' behavioural intentions towards self-poisoning patients: a theory of reasoned action, comparison of attitudes and subjective norms as predictive variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinlay, A; Couston, M; Cowan, S

    2001-04-01

    The incidence of self-poisoning is on the increase. Most patients who self-poison are dealt with initially in the general hospital. Therefore, the type and quality of care self-poisoning patients receive will depend, in part, on how they are viewed by nursing staff within the general hospital setting. A knowledge and understanding of the attitudes held by nurses towards self-poisoning patients is therefore important to those involved in the planning and delivery of care towards this client group. Previous studies have examined health care professionals' attitudes towards people who self-poison. Usually, however, these have not focused specifically on nurses' attitudes, and they have ignored the relationship between the attitudes expressed by staff and their intentions to engage in subsequent caring behaviour of one sort or another. It is hence unclear how the findings of such studies are relevant or applicable to nursing policy and practice. The present study aims to address these limitations using a methodology informed by the theory of reasoned action. The study aims to separate out the distinctive roles played by nurses' own attitudes, and the social pressures represented by other people's attitudes, in determining the types of caring behaviour in which nurses intend to engage when dealing with self-poisoning patients. The study adopts a questionnaire-based approach incorporating two specially designed vignettes. The results show that nurses' own attitudes, and what they believe about the attitudes of others, predict their behavioural intentions towards self-poisoning patients. The study also shows that nurses with a more positive orientation towards self-poisoning patients differ in behavioural and normative beliefs from nurses who have a less positive orientation. The implications for future attempts to explore the relationship between nurses' attitudes and subsequent caring behaviour are considered, along with implications for nursing policy and practice.

  18. Prediction of Neurocognitive Deficits by Parkinsonian Motor Impairment in Schizophrenia: A Study in Neuroleptic-Naïve Subjects, Unaffected First-Degree Relatives and Healthy Controls From an Indigenous Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Juan L; González Alemán, Gabriela; Florenzano, Néstor; Padilla, Eduardo; Calvó, María; Guerrero, Gonzalo; Kamis, Danielle; Stratton, Lee; Toranzo, Juan; Molina Rangeon, Beatriz; Hernández Cuervo, Helena; Bourdieu, Mercedes; Sedó, Manuel; Strejilevich, Sergio; Cloninger, Claude Robert; Escobar, Javier I; de Erausquin, Gabriel A

    2016-11-01

    Neurocognitive deficits are among the most debilitating and pervasive symptoms of schizophrenia, and are present also in unaffected first-degree relatives. Also, multiple reports reveal parkisonian motor deficits in untreated subjects with schizophrenia and in first-degree relatives of affected subjects. Yet, the relation between motor and cognitive impairment and its value as a classifier of endophenotypes has not been studied. To test the efficacy of midbrain hyperechogenicity (MHE) and parkinsonian motor impairment (PKM) as predictors of neurocognitive impairment in subjects with or at risk for schizophrenia, that could be used to segregate them from first-degree relatives and healthy controls. Seventy-six subjects with chronic schizophrenia never exposed to antipsychotic medication, 106 unaffected first-degree relatives, and 62 healthy controls were blindly assessed for cognitive and motor function, and transcranial ultrasound. Executive function, fluid intelligence, motor planning, and hand coordination showed group differences. PKM and MHE were significantly higher in untreated schizophrenia and unaffected relatives. Unaffected relatives showed milder impairment, but were different from controls. PKM and MHE predict cognitive impairment in neuroleptic-naive patients with schizophrenia and their unaffected first-degree relatives and may be used to segregate them from first-degree relatives and healthy controls. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Genetic effects of radiation and prediction of hereditary pathology of population of areas around the former Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigaliev, A.B.

    1998-01-01

    Epidemiological analysis of diseases and mortality of the population living in areas around Semipalatinsk test site is not only theoretically interesting in terms of the human being genetics, but is important for the health-care in practice, since it allows correct planning the score of medical social aid to the sick people and their families, including measures. Assessment of posterior consequences of low dose radiation effect on health of the population of the areas around the former Semipalatinsk nuclear test site is of special interest. Many underground, atmospheric and above-ground tests of nuclear weapon resulted in a significant increase of the oncologic and blood diseases rate among several generations of the effected people. Moreover, consequences of the above-ground and atmospheric tests of nuclear and hydrogen weapon will show up in the next century, taking into account the fact that the 'open' tests were ceased only at the middle of 60-th. The birth rate of children with the inherent intelligence defects was determined according to the accounting records of the new-born children within 1986-1992 years. Analysis of perinatal mortality was carried out based on the records on autopsy within 1985-1992 years. The two-fold increase of the onco diseases rate was revealed among children. The rate of spontaneous aborts in the Eginbulak district was 9.99% and exceeded the average rate in the region and indexes of other regions

  20. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Groundwater and River Sediment: A Case Study of a Typical Agricultural Irrigation Area in Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The areas with typical municipal sewage discharge river and irrigation water function were selected as study sites in northeast China. The samples from groundwater and river sediment in this area were collected for the concentrations and forms of heavy metals (Cr(VI, Cd, As, and Pb analysis. The risk assessment of heavy metal pollution was conducted based on single-factor pollution index (I and Nemerow pollution index (NI. The results showed that only one groundwater sampling site reached a polluted level of heavy metals. There was a high potential ecological risk of Cd on the N21-2 sampling site in river sediment. The morphological analysis results of heavy metals in sediment showed that the release of heavy metals can be inferred as one of the main pollution sources of groundwater. In addition, the changes in the concentration and migration scope of As were predicted by using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS. The predicted results showed that As will migrate downstream in the next decade, and the changing trend of As polluted areas was changed with As content districts because of some pump wells downstream to form groundwater depression cone, which made the solute transfer upstream.

  1. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Groundwater and River Sediment: A Case Study of a Typical Agricultural Irrigation Area in Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Shuang; Geng, Hui; Zhang, Fengjun; Liu, Zhaoying; Wang, Tianye; Song, Boyu

    2015-01-01

    The areas with typical municipal sewage discharge river and irrigation water function were selected as study sites in northeast China. The samples from groundwater and river sediment in this area were collected for the concentrations and forms of heavy metals (Cr(VI), Cd, As, and Pb) analysis. The risk assessment of heavy metal pollution was conducted based on single-factor pollution index (I) and Nemerow pollution index (NI). The results showed that only one groundwater sampling site reached a polluted level of heavy metals. There was a high potential ecological risk of Cd on the N21-2 sampling site in river sediment. The morphological analysis results of heavy metals in sediment showed that the release of heavy metals can be inferred as one of the main pollution sources of groundwater. In addition, the changes in the concentration and migration scope of As were predicted by using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The predicted results showed that As will migrate downstream in the next decade, and the changing trend of As polluted areas was changed with As content districts because of some pump wells downstream to form groundwater depression cone, which made the solute transfer upstream. PMID:26366176

  2. Allometric Models to Predict Aboveground Woody Biomass of Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L. in Short Rotation Coppice in Previous Mining and Agricultural Areas in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christin Carl

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Black locust is a drought-resistant tree species with high biomass productivity during juvenility; it is able to thrive on wastelands, such as former brown coal fields and dry agricultural areas. However, research conducted on this species in such areas is limited. This paper aims to provide a basis for predicting tree woody biomass for black locust based on tree, competition, and site variables at 14 sites in northeast Germany that were previously utilized for mining or agriculture. The study areas, which are located in an area covering 320 km × 280 km, are characterized by a variety of climatic and soil conditions. Influential variables, including tree parameters, competition, and climatic parameters were considered. Allometric biomass models were employed. The findings show that the most important parameters are tree and competition variables. Different former land utilizations, such as mining or agriculture, as well as growth by cores or stumps, significantly influenced aboveground woody biomass production. The new biomass models developed as part of this study can be applied to calculate woody biomass production and carbon sequestration of Robinia pseudoacacia L. in short rotation coppices in previous mining and agricultural areas.

  3. Predicting small mammal and flea abundance using landform and soil properties in a plague endemic area in Lushoto District, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meliyo, Joel L; Kimaro, Didas N; Msanya, Balthazar M; Mulungu, Loth S; Hieronimo, Proches; Kihupi, Nganga I; Gulinck, Hubert; Deckers, Jozef A

    2014-07-01

    Small mammals particularly rodents, are considered the primary natural hosts of plague. Literature suggests that plague persistence in natural foci has a root cause in soils. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between on the one hand landforms and associated soil properties, and on the other hand small mammals and fleas in West Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, a plague endemic area. Standard field survey methods coupled with Geographical Information System (GIS) technique were used to examine landform and soils characteristics. Soil samples were analysed in the laboratory for physico-chemical properties. Small mammals were trapped on pre-established landform positions and identified to genus/species level. Fleas were removed from the trapped small mammals and counted. Exploration of landform and soil data was done using ArcGIS Toolbox functions and descriptive statistical analysis. The relationships between landforms, soils, small mammals and fleas were established by generalised linear regression model (GLM) operated in R statistics software. Results show that landforms and soils influence the abundance of small mammals and fleas and their spatial distribution. The abundance of small mammals and fleas increased with increase in elevation. Small mammal species richness also increases with elevation. A landform-soil model shows that available phosphorus, slope aspect and elevation were statistically significant predictors explaining richness and abundance of small mammals. Fleas' abundance and spatial distribution were influenced by hill-shade, available phosphorus and base saturation. The study suggests that landforms and soils have a strong influence on the richness and evenness of small mammals and their fleas' abundance hence could be used to explain plague dynamics in the area.

  4. Deformation in volcanic areas: a numerical approach for their prediction in Teide volcano (Tenerife, Canary Islands); Deformaciones en areas volcanicas: una aproximacin numerica para su prediccion en el volcan Teide (Tenerife, Islas Canarias)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charco, M.; Galan del Sastre, P.

    2011-07-01

    Active volcanic areas study comprises both, observation of physical changes in the natural media and the interpretation of such changes. Nowadays, the application of spatial geodetic techniques, such as GPS (Global Positioning System) or InSAR (Interferometry with Synthetic Aperture Radar), for deformation understanding in volcanic areas, revolutionizes our view of this geodetic signals. Deformation of the Earth's surface reflects tectonic, magmatic and hydrothermal processes at depth. In this way, the prediction of volcanic deformation through physical modelling provides a link between the observation and depth interior processes that could be crucial for volcanic hazards assessment. In this work, we develop a numerical model for elastic deformation study. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is used for the implementation of the numerical model. FEM allows to take into account different morphology, structural characteristics and the mechanical heterogeneities of the medium. Numerical simulations of deformation in Tenerife (Canary Islands) taking into account different medium hypothesis allow us to conclude that the accuracy of the predictions depends on how well the natural system is described. (Author) 22 refs.

  5. Expert evaluation and prediction of the radioecological state of the environment in the area of the radiation plume from the Chernobyl' nuclear power station (aquatic ecosystems)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    On the basis of experimental data on radionuclide distribution in the components of the aquatic ecosystems within and outside the 30 km zone around the Chernobyl power plant after the reactor accident the exposure doses for aquatic organisms in the area of the radiation plume have been estimated. In the Kiev reservoir the predicted exposure doses for most aquatic organisms do not exceed 0.1-1.0 mrad/h, in the river Pripyat' the exposure doses for fish are about 50 mrad/h and in the cooling pond of the Chernobyl power station the highest exposure doses, up to 5 rad/h in a number of locations were registered

  6. A case history of using high-resolution LiDAR data to support archaeological prediction models in a low-relief area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacskó, Vivien; Székely, Balázs; Stibrányi, Máté; Koma, Zsófia

    2016-04-01

    Hungary is situated in the crossroad of several large-scale infrastructural pathways like transnational pipelines and transcontinental motorways. At the same time the country is rich in known and potential archaeological sites. Archaeological prediction techniques aided by remote sensing are intended to help increase preparedness for archaeological surveying and rescue activities in response to planned new infrastructural developments (e.g., a new pipeline), as they try to estimate the number of potential archaeological sites, area to be surveyed, potential cost and time needed for these activities. In very low-relief areas microtopographic forms may indicate sites, high-resolution LiDAR DTMs are suitable for their detection. Main sources of archaeological prediction models are known archaeological sites, where optimal environmental conditions of settling down existed at historic ages. Hydrological characteristics, relief, geology, vegetation cover and soil are considered to be as most important natural factors. Sorting of the factors and accuracy of the sampling differentiate our models. Resolution of an inductive model depends on the spatial properties of the integrated data: a raster data set can be generated that contains probability values and the reliability of the estimation. The information content of the predictive model is highly influenced by the resolution of the used digital terrain model (DTM): its derivatives (slope, aspect, topographic features) are important inputs of the modelling. The quality of the DTM is even more important in low-relief areas as microtopographic features may indicate archaeological sites. The conventional digital elevation models (SRTM, ASTER GDEM) provide unsatisfying resolution (both in horizontal and vertical senses) as they are rather digital surface models containing the vegetation and the built-up structures. Processed multiecho LiDAR data can be used instead. Our study area is situated in the foothills of the

  7. Sensitivity of the UAM-predicted ozone concentrations to wind fields in the New York metropolitan area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sistla, G.; Ku, J.Y.; Zhou, N.; Hao, W.; Rao, S.T. [New York State Dept. of Environmental Conservation, Albany, NY (United States); Thunis, P. [ISPRA Establishment (Italy); Bornstein, R.; Freedman, F. [San Jose State Univ., CA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The New York airshed modeling domain, extending from northern Philadelphia, PA to the southern Massachusetts, is part of the large urban corridor stretching from Virginia to Maine alone the eastern sea-board of United States. Due to the continued non-attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone, the area has been designated to be in the {open_quotes}severe{close_quotes} classification under the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. This requires demonstration of compliance with the ozone NAAQS with grid-based photochemical models such as the Urban Airshed Model (UAM). The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has recommended the use of a one-way model nesting scheme, with the Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) providing initial and boundary conditions and other ancillary data for the UAM. Meteorological data and emissions data can also be developed by alternative methods for use with UAM, if considered more appropriate than those derived from the ROM-UAM system.

  8. Do Childhood Adversities Predict Suicidality? Findings from the General Population of the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Mendonça Coêlho

    Full Text Available Childhood adversities have been associated with a number of medical and psychiatric outcomes. However, the reported effects that specific childhood adversities have on suicidality vary across studies.This was a cross-sectional, stratified, multistage area probability investigation of a general population in Brazil, designated the São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey. The World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview was applied in 5037 individuals ≥ 18 years of age, in order to assess 12 different adversities occurring during childhood and/or adolescence, as well as to look for associations between those adversities and subsequent suicidality in different age strata.Over half of the respondents reported at least one childhood adversity. Only physical abuse was consistently associated with suicide attempts in all subsequent life stages (OR = 2.1. Among adults 20-29 years of age, the likelihood of a suicide attempt was correlated with parental divorce, whereas suicidal ideation was associated with prior sexual abuse. Among adults over 30 years of age, physical illness and economic adversity emerged as relevant childhood adversities associated with suicide attempts, whereas sexual abuse, family violence, and economic adversity were associated with suicidal ideation.Childhood adversities, especially physical abuse, are likely associated with unfavorable consequences in subsequent years. For suicidality across a lifespan, the role of different childhood adversities must be examined independently.

  9. Application of State of Art Modeling Techniques to Predict Flooding and Waves for an Exposed Coastal Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. Spaulding

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs are developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA to provide guidance in establishing the risk to structures and infrastructure in the coastal zone from storm surge and coincidental waves. The maps are used by state agencies and municipalities to help guide coastal planning and establish the minimum elevation standard for new or substantially improved structures. A summary of the methods used and results of 2012 FIRM mapping are presented for Charlestown, RI; a coastal community located along the exposed, southern shoreline of the state. Concerns with the methods used in the 2012 analysis are put in context with the National Research Council’s (NRC 2009 review of the FEMA coastal mapping program. New mapping is then performed using state of the art, fully coupled surge and wave modeling and data analysis methods to address the concerns in the NRC review. The new maps and methodologies are in compliance with FEMA regulations and guidelines. The approach makes extensive use of the numerical modeling results from the recent US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE, North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS 2015. Revised flood maps are presented and compared with the 2012 FIRM map to provide insight into the differences. The new maps highlight the importance of developing better estimates of offshore surge dynamics and its coupling to waves, dune erosion based on local observations, and the advancement in nearshore mapping of waves in flood inundated areas by the use of state of the art, two-dimensional wave transformation models.

  10. Numerical Prediction of the Influence of Process Parameters on Large Area Diamond Deposition by DC Arcjet with ARC Roots Rotating and Operating at Gas Recycling Mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, F. X.; Huang, T. B.; Tang, W. Z.; Song, J. H.; Tong, Y. M.

    A computer model have been set up for simulation of the flow and temperature field, and the radial distribution of atomic hydrogen and active carbonaceous species over a large area substrate surface for a new type dc arc plasma torch with rotating arc roots and operating at gas recycling mode A gas recycling radio of 90% was assumed. In numerical calculation of plasma chemistry, the Thermal-Calc program and a powerful thermodynamic database were employed. Numerical calculations to the computer model were performed using boundary conditions close to the experimental setup for large area diamond films deposition. The results showed that the flow and temperature field over substrate surface of Φ60-100mm were smooth and uniform. Calculations were also made with plasma of the same geometry but no arc roots rotation. It was clearly demonstrated that the design of rotating arc roots was advantageous for high quality uniform deposition of large area diamond films. Theoretical predictions on growth rate and film quality as well as their radial uniformity, and the influence of process parameters on large area diamond deposition were discussed in detail based on the spatial distribution of atomic hydrogen and the carbonaceous species in the plasma over the substrate surface obtained from thermodynamic calculations of plasma chemistry, and were compared with experimental observations.

  11. Displacement prediction of Baijiabao landslide based on empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory neural network in Three Gorges area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shiluo; Niu, Ruiqing

    2018-02-01

    Every year, landslides pose huge threats to thousands of people in China, especially those in the Three Gorges area. It is thus necessary to establish an early warning system to help prevent property damage and save peoples' lives. Most of the landslide displacement prediction models that have been proposed are static models. However, landslides are dynamic systems. In this paper, the total accumulative displacement of the Baijiabao landslide is divided into trend and periodic components using empirical mode decomposition. The trend component is predicted using an S-curve estimation, and the total periodic component is predicted using a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). LSTM is a dynamic model that can remember historical information and apply it to the current output. Six triggering factors are chosen to predict the periodic term using the Pearson cross-correlation coefficient and mutual information. These factors include the cumulative precipitation during the previous month, the cumulative precipitation during a two-month period, the reservoir level during the current month, the change in the reservoir level during the previous month, the cumulative increment of the reservoir level during the current month, and the cumulative displacement during the previous month. When using one-step-ahead prediction, LSTM yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) value of 6.112 mm, while the support vector machine for regression (SVR) and the back-propagation neural network (BP) yield values of 10.686 mm and 8.237 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the Elman network (Elman) yields an RMSE value of 6.579 mm. In addition, when using multi-step-ahead prediction, LSTM obtains an RMSE value of 8.648 mm, while SVR, BP and the Elman network obtains RSME values of 13.418 mm, 13.014 mm, and 13.370 mm. The predicted results indicate that, to some extent, the dynamic model (LSTM) achieves results that are more accurate than those of the static models (i.e., SVR and BP). LSTM even

  12. Comparison of peak flow velocity through the left ventricular outflow tract and effective orifice area indexed to body surface area in Golden Retriever puppies to predict development of subaortic stenosis in adult dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javard, Romain; Bélanger, Marie-Claude; Côté, Etienne; Beauchamp, Guy; Pibarot, Philippe

    2014-12-15

    To evaluate the usefulness of Doppler-derived peak flow velocity through the left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT Vmax) and effective orifice area indexed to body surface area (EOAi) in puppies to predict development of subaortic stenosis (SAS) in the same dogs as adults. Prospective, longitudinal, observational study. 38 Golden Retrievers. Cardiac auscultation and echocardiography were performed on 2- to 6-month-old puppies, then repeated at 12 to 18 months. Subaortic stenosis was diagnosed when LVOT Vmax was ≥ 2.3 m/s in adult dogs with left basilar systolic murmurs. All puppies with EOAi 2.3 m/s in puppyhood was 63% sensitive and 100% specific for SAS in adulthood. In puppies, LVOT Vmax was more strongly associated with a future diagnosis of SAS (area under the curve [AUC], 0.89) than was EOAi (AUC, 0.80). In puppies, the combination of LVOT Vmax and EOAi yielded slightly higher sensitivity (69%) and specificity (100%) for adult SAS than did LVOT Vmax alone. In unaffected and affected dogs, LVOT Vmax increased significantly from puppyhood to adulthood but EOAi did not. In Golden Retriever puppies, LVOT Vmax > 2.3 m/s and EOAi < 1.46 cm(2)/m(2) were both associated with a diagnosis of SAS at adulthood. The combination of these 2 criteria may result in higher sensitivity for SAS screening. Unlike LVOT Vmax, EOAi did not change during growth in either unaffected Golden Retrievers or those with SAS.

  13. The geological evolution of opalinus clay in the Zurcher Weinland Area (ne Switzerland): learning from the past to predict future evolution and stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautschi, A.; Mazurek, M.

    2004-01-01

    A number of safety-relevant issues need to be addressed when considering long-term evolution of a radioactive waste repository, out of which uplift/erosion, fault activity, and changes in the geochemical and hydrogeological environment are particularly important. Among the strongest arguments in the prediction of future evolution is the extrapolation of events and processes that occurred over a long period of time in the geological past (e.g. 10 Ma) to a shorter period in the future. The future long-term evolution of Opalinus Clay in a potential siting area for a high-level waste repository in the Zurcher Weinland (NE Switzerland) is considered over a time period of around l Ma. The geological evolution or geological stability, respectively, can be predicted plausibly within reasonable limits over such a time period based on a detailed analysis of geological history. Predictions extending beyond this time period are feasible but contain an increasing element of uncertainty. This paper summarises the project-related conclusions, which are presented in greater detail in Nagra (2002a). (author)

  14. Developing Sediment Transport and Dredging Prediction Model of Ohio River at Olmsted Locks and Dams Area using HEC-RAS (1D/2D)By Ganesh Raj Ghimire1 and Bruce A. Devantier 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, G. R.

    2015-12-01

    Sediment deposition is a serious issue in the construction and operation of large reservoir and inland navigation projects in the United States and around the world. Olmsted Locks and Dams in the Ohio River navigation system is facing similar challenges of huge sediment deposition during the ongoing in-wet construction methodology since 1993. HEC-RAS 5.0 integrated with ArcGIS, will be used to yield unsteady 2D hydrodynamic model of Ohio River at Olmsted area. Velocity, suspended sediment, bed sediment and hydrographic survey data acquired from public archives of USGS and USACE Louisville District will be input into the model. Calibration and validation of model will be performed against the measured stage, flow and velocity data. It will be subjected to completely unsteady 1D sediment transport modeling new to HEC-RAS 5.0 which incorporates sediment load and bed gradation via a DSS file, commercial dredging and BSTEM model. Sediment model will be calibrated to replicate the historical bed volume changes. Excavated cross-sections at Olmsted