WorldWideScience

Sample records for subdivisional monsoon rainfall

  1. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Cyclones; Bay of Bengal; summer monsoon; rainfall; genesis potential parameter; post-monsoon. .... in 10. −5 S. −1, S = vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa (m s. −1); M = [RH−40]. 30. = middle tro- posphere relative humidity, where RH is the aver- ..... cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic;.

  2. Indian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics during contrasting monsoon years.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varikoden, H.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Babu, C.A.

    % in the central and western coastal regions. In a wet monsoon year, about 35–45 % of rainfall is contributed during June and July in most parts of India. During these years, the influence of features in the Pacific Ocean played vital role on the Indian summer...

  3. Monsoon onset over Kerala and pre monsoon rainfall peak

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.

    degrees E, from 1st March to 31 May for the years 1979 to 2001. The monsoon onset dates over Kerala, as declared by India Meteorological Department has been used in the present study. For each year, the midday of the pentad with the rainfall peak...

  4. Why the predictions for monsoon rainfall fail?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.

    2016-12-01

    To be in line with the Global Land/Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) international research scheme, this study discusses classical arguments about the feedback mechanisms between land surface and precipitation to improve the predictions of African monsoon rainfall. In order to clarify the impact of antecedent soil moisture on subsequent rainfall evolution, several data sets will be presented. First, in-situ soil moisture field measurements acquired by the AMMA field campaign will be shown together with rain gauge data. This data set will validate various model and satellite data sets such as NOAH land surface model, TRMM rainfall, CMORPH rainfall and HadGEM climate models, SMOS soil moisture. To relate soil moisture with precipitation, two approaches are employed: one approach makes a direct comparison between the spatial distributions of soil moisture as an absolute value and rainfall, while the other measures a temporal evolution of the consecutive dry days (i.e. a relative change within the same soil moisture data set over time) and rainfall occurrences. Consecutive dry days shows consistent results of a negative feedback between soil moisture and rainfall across various data sets, contrary to the direct comparison of soil moisture state. This negative mechanism needs attention, as most climate models usually focus on a positive feedback only. The approach of consecutive dry days takes into account the systematic errors in satellite observations, reminding us that it may cause the misinterpretation to directly compare model with satellite data, due to their difference in data retrievals. This finding is significant, as the climate indices employed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) modelling archive are based on the atmospheric variable rathr than land.

  5. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, the development of a statistical forecasting method for summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh is described. Predictors for Bangladesh summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall were identified from the large scale ocean–atmospheric circulation variables (i.e., sea-surface temperature, surface air ...

  6. Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features ... When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the grid resolution of 2.5°, it was found ...

  7. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa occurs mostly due to low pressure systems (LPS)developing over the Bay of Bengal and moving along the monsoon trough.A study is hence undertaken to find out characteristic features of the relationship between LPS over different regions and rainfall over Orissa during the ...

  8. A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Qinjian; Wang, Chien

    2017-08-01

    A significant reduction in summer monsoon rainfall has been observed in northern central India during the second half of the twentieth century, threatening water security and causing widespread socio-economic impacts. Here, using various observational data sets, we show that monsoon rainfall has increased in India at 1.34 mm d-1 decade-1 since 2002. This apparent revival of summer monsoon precipitation is closely associated with a favourable land-ocean temperature gradient, driven by a strong warming signature over the Indian subcontinent and slower rates of warming over the Indian Ocean. The continental Indian warming is attributed to a reduction of low cloud due to decreased ocean evaporation in the Arabian Sea, and thus decreased moisture transport to India. Global climate models fail to capture the observed rainfall revival and corresponding trends of the land-ocean temperature gradient, with implications for future projections of the Indian monsoon.

  9. Perceptible changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall in relation to Indian Monsoon Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, C. V.; Dharma Raju, A.; Vinay Kumar, P.; Satyanarayana, G. Ch.

    2017-10-01

    The changes in the summer monsoon rainfall over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India with respect to changes in circulation and the Indian Monsoon Index (IMI) have been studied for the period 1953-2012. The relationship between the IMIs in different months and whole season and the corresponding summer monsoon rainfall is studied and tested. The positive and negative extremes are evaluated basing on the normalized values of the deviations from the mean of the IMI. Composite rainfall distributions over India and the zonal wind distributions in the lower and upper troposphere of IMI's both positive and negative extremes are evaluated separately and discussed. In the recent three decades of global warming, the negative values of IMI in July and August lead to weakening of the monsoon system over India. It is observed that the rainfall variations in the Northeast India are different from the rest of India except Tamil Nadu in general.

  10. Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Arslan

    2013-09-04

    Sep 4, 2013 ... Floods due to “blocking event” in the jet stream during 2010 caused intense rainfall and flash floods in northern Pakistan which resulted to riverine flooding in southern Pakistan. In the beginning of July. 2010, changes in summer monsoon rainfall patterns caused the most severe flooding in Pakistan history.

  11. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    casts (ECMWF). Statistical techniques for long range forecasting make use of the past data espe- cially relationship between the rainfall and other weather/climate related parameters. SST is a key indication because of its relatively gradual rate of. Keywords. Summer monsoon rainfall; predictor; forecast; RMSE. J. Earth Syst.

  12. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Compared to TRMM and GPCP daily rainfall data, the current NMSG daily data has more information due to inclusion of local gauge analysed values. In terms of bias and skill scores this dataset is superior to other daily rainfall datasets. In a mean climatological sense and also for anomalous monsoon seasons, this merged ...

  13. Unusual rainfall shift during monsoon period of 2010 in Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Floods due to “blocking event” in the jet stream during 2010 caused intense rainfall and flash floods in northern Pakistan which resulted to riverine flooding in southern Pakistan. In the beginning of July 2010, changes in summer monsoon rainfall patterns caused the most severe flooding in Pakistan history. Process control ...

  14. Monsoon effect simulation on typhoon rainfall potential - Typhoon Morakot (2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Ling Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A record breaking extreme precipitation event produced 3000 mm day-1 of accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The interactions between Typhoon Morakot and the prevailing southwesterly (SW monsoon are the primary mechanism for this heavy precipitation during 5 - 13 August 2009. This extreme precipitation could be produced by the abundant moisture from the SW monsoon associated with the interaction between typhoon and monsoon wind fields, leading to severe property damage. The accurate mapping of extreme precipitation caused from the interaction between a monsoon and typhoon is critical for early warning in Taiwan. This study simulates the heavy rainfall event is based on the Weather Research and Forecast system model (WRF using the three nested domain configuration. Using data assimilation with a virtual meteorological field using the 3D-Var system, such as wind field to alter the SW monsoon strength in the initial condition, the impacts of intensified convergence and water vapor content on the accumulated rainfall are analyzed to quantize the intensification of typhoon rainfall potential. The results showed a positive correlation between the enhanced precipitation and the intensity of low-level wind speed convergence as well as water vapor content. For the Typhoon Morakot case study the rainfall for could attain approximately 2 × 104 mm at 6 hours interval in the southern Taiwan area when 10 × 10-6 s-1 convergence intensified at 850 hPa level around the southern part of the Taiwan Strait. These results suggest that low-level wind speed, convergence and water vapor content play key roles in the typhoon rainfall potential coupled with the SW monsoon.

  15. Climate models produce skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    DelSole, Timothy; Shukla, Jagadish

    2012-05-01

    After more than one hundred years of statistical forecasting and fifty years of climate model development, this paper shows that the skill of predicting Indian monsoon rainfall with coupled atmosphere-ocean models initialized in May is statistically significant, and much higher than can be predicted empirically from May sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The superior skill of dynamical models is attributed to the fact that slowly evolving sea surface temperatures are the primary source of predictability, and to the fact that climate models produce more skillful predictions of June-September sea surface temperatures. The recent apparent breakdown in SST-monsoon relation can be simulated in coupled models, even though the relation is significant and relatively constant on an ensemble mean basis, suggesting that the observed breakdown could be due, in large part, to sampling variability. Despite the observed breakdown, skillful predictions of monsoon rainfall can be constructed using sea surface temperatures predicted by dynamical models. This fact opens the possibility of using readily available seasonal predictions of sea surface temperatures to make real-time skillful predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, predictors based on tendency of SST during spring information show skill during both the recent and historical periods and hence may provide more skillful predictions of monsoon rainfall than predictors based on a single month.

  16. Extreme Rainfall Indices for Tropical Monsoon Countries in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kusumastuti, C.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Southeast Asian countries have the possibility to have rainfall and number of extreme rainfall event change due to future climate variation. This paper proposed three extreme rainfall indices as a modification of climate extremes indices from CLIMDEX Project by researchers at the Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC, the University of New South Wales (UNSW. The proposed indices aim to be used as a parameter for observing extreme rainfall events in tropical monsoon countries. Eleven extreme precipitation indices from CLIMDEX Project and the three proposed extreme precipitation for tropical monsoon countries are systematically analyzed based on data of daily rainfall from meteorological stations in Bangkok and Jakarta. Mann-Kendall test was used to observe the trend of extreme rainfall. In general, the analysis of a total of 14 extreme indices show both Bangkok and Jakarta received more rainfall during rainy season and less rainfall during dry season. Specifically, a significant increasing trend of extreme rainfall indices (R60 and R80 was revealed using the proposed indices.

  17. Moisture source for summer monsoon rainfall over India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.

    Southwest monsoon plays a vital role in India's economy as the major income comes from agriculture. What could be the moisture source for this copious amount of rainfall over the Indian sub-continent?. This has been studied in detail and noticed...

  18. Prediction of monsoon rainfall with a nested grid mesoscale limited ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    to examine the impact of increased resolution to simulate mesoscale features of rainfall during monsoon disturbances. The model was run .... level primitive equation model cast in sigma co- ordinate and staggered Arakawa C-grid in ... face, upper air, aircraft and satellite observations. These are extracted and decoded from ...

  19. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The search for new parameters for predicting the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) has been an important aspect of long range prediction of AISMR. In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using ...

  20. Logit-normal mixed model for Indian Monsoon rainfall extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

    2014-03-01

    Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon rainfall extremes is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Several GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data procured from the National Climatic Data Center. The logit-normal model was applied with fixed covariates of latitude, longitude, elevation, daily minimum and maximum temperatures with a random intercept by weather station. In general, the estimation methods concurred in their suggestion of a relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extreme rainfall variability estimates. This work provides a valuable starting point for extending GLMM to incorporate the intricate dependencies in extreme climate events.

  1. Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K C Gouda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

  2. Aerosol and rainfall variability over the Indian monsoon region: distributions, trends and coupling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Gautam

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol solar absorption over the Indian monsoon region has a potential role of modulating the monsoon circulation and rainfall distribution as suggested by recent studies based on model simulations. Prior to the onset of the monsoon, northern India is influenced by significant dust transport that constitutes the bulk of the regional aerosol loading over the Gangetic-Himalayan region. In this paper, a multi-sensor characterization of the increasing pre-monsoon aerosol loading over northern India, in terms of their spatial, temporal and vertical distribution is presented. Aerosol transport from the northwestern arid regions into the Indo-Gangetic Plains and over the foothills of the Himalayas is found to be vertically extended to elevated altitudes (up to 5 km as observed from the space-borne lidar measurements (CALIPSO. In relation with the enhanced pre-monsoon aerosol loading and the associated solar absorption effects on tropospheric temperature anomalies, this paper investigates the monsoon rainfall variability over India in recent past decades from an observational viewpoint. It is found that the early summer monsoon rainfall over India is on the rise since 1950s, as indicated by historical rainfall data, with over 20% increase for the period 1950–2004. This large sustained increase in the early summer rainfall is led by the observed strengthening of the pre-monsoon tropospheric land-sea thermal gradient over the Indian monsoon region as indicated by microwave satellite measurements (MSU of tropospheric temperatures from 1979–2007. Combined analysis of changes in tropospheric temperatures and summer monsoon rainfall in the past three decades, suggest a future possibility of an emerging rainfall pattern of a wetter monsoon over South Asia in early summer followed by a drier period.

  3. Relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ice cover over selected oceanic regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The variations in oceanic ice cover at selected polar regions during 1973 to 1987 have been analysed in relation to the seasonal Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The ice cover over the Arctic regions in June has negative relationship (correlation...

  4. Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2017-05-01

    In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

  5. Prediction of monsoon rainfall with a nested grid mesoscale limited ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... days in the month of August 1997 and one week in September 1997 during three monsoon depressions and one cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The model results are compared with observations. The study shows that the model can capture mesoscale convective organization associated with monsoon depression.

  6. Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

    2013-04-01

    Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

  7. Short-term modulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by West Asian dust

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vinoj, V.; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Ma, Po-Lun; Landu, Kiranmayi; Singh, Balwinder

    2014-03-16

    The Indian summer monsoon is the result of a complex interplay between radiative heating, dynamics and cloud and aerosol interactions. Despite increased scientific attention, the effect of aerosols on monsoons still remains uncertain. Here we present both observational evidence and numerical modeling results demonstrating a remote aerosol link to Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Rainfall over central India is positively correlated to natural aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia. Simulations using a state-of-the-art global climate model support this remote aerosol link and indicate that dust aerosols induce additional moisture transport and convergence over Central India, producing increased monsoon rainfall. The convergence is driven through solar heating and latent heating within clouds over West Asia that increases surface winds over the Arabian Sea. On the other hand, sea-salt aerosol tends to counteract the effect of dust and reduces rainfall. Our findings highlight the importance of natural aerosols in modulating the strength of the Indian summer monsoon, and motivate additional research in how changes in background aerosols of natural origin may be influencing long-term trends in monsoon precipitation.

  8. On the role of the cross equatorial flow on summer monsoon rainfall over India using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Schluessel, P.

    of the moisture needed for the summer monsoon rainfall comes from evapora- tion over the south Indian Ocean and off the horn of Africa. Recent study of Ramesh Kumar and Schluessel (1998) has obtained similar result for two recent contrasting monsoon years namely... the highest rainfall (961.5 mm). We have further regrouped this data into excess monsoon years (1983, 1988 and 1994) and deficit monsoon years (1982, 1986 and 1987) composites of checking whether the NCEP reanalysis is able to depict the contrasting monsoon...

  9. Meso-scale distribution of summer monsoon rainfall near the Western Ghats (India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Asnani, G. C.

    2000-04-01

    The spatial distribution of southwest monsoon rainfall is studied over Maharashtra State (India), which includes part of the well-known Western Ghats mountain range, near its western boundary, running almost from north to south, perpendicular to the summer monsoon current in the lower troposphere. Meso-scale analysis of daily rainfall is performed for Maharashtra State, including the Western Ghats, for the two mid-monsoon months of July and August, during the 10-year period of 1971-1980. Strong and weak monsoon days were identified for the 5-year period of 1976-1980. The meso-scale pattern of average daily rainfall is obtained separately for strong and for weak monsoon conditions.All these average patterns show the following features: (i) the rainfall increases rapidly from the Arabian Sea coast close to the line of maximum height of the Western Ghats; (ii) there are two rainfall maxima corresponding to the two mountain peaks parallel to the coast line; (iii) between the two mountain peaks, there is a valley which is narrow at the western end (upwind end), broadening towards the east (on the downwind side). Ground contour height of the valley rises eastwards and ends as a part of the Deccan Plateau east of the Ghats. Here the valley opens out like a funnel with higher mountains flanking its two sides. In the valley, the rainfall increases from the coast up to the line of maximum height of the Ghats, and then decreases eastwards towards the plateau. The rainfall isopleths also take a funnel-shaped configuration. An interesting feature is that near the wider section of the valley funnel, there is a rainfall minimum and then the rainfall increases further eastwards on the downwind side. This feature of rainfall minimum is somewhat similar to the rainfall minimum reported by Asnani and Kinuthia (personal communication); Asnani (Asnani GC. 1993. Tropical Meteorology, Vol. I. Prof. G.C. Asnani: Pune, India; 603) attributed the rainfall minimum to the Bernoulli effect. A

  10. Impact of vegetation on the simulation of seasonal monsoon rainfall ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The main objective of the present study is to investigate the impact of vegetation dataset derived from SPOT satellite by ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization)versus that of USGS (United States Geological Survey)vegetation dataset on the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon.The present study has been ...

  11. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida 201 309, India. 2MoES, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India. ... opportunities to learn more about weather and cli- mate systems of tropics and monsoons. ..... a threshold to that of the number of forecast points above the corresponding threshold.

  12. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 116; Issue 1. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon ... In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on ...

  13. Occurrence of heavy rainfall around the confluence line in monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... to the confluence line and cause severe floods in the river. The confluence line is the zone of convergence between the northeasterlies to the west of the disturbance centre and the monsoon westerlies. This study further reveals the importance of the position and movement of the confluence line with respect to the basin, ...

  14. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  15. Seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over cluster ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Shared nearest neighbour (SNN) cluster algorithm has been applied to seasonal (June–September) rainfall departures over 30 sub-divisions of India to identify the contiguous homogeneous cluster regions over India. Five cluster regions are identified. Rainfall departure series for these cluster regions are prepared by area ...

  16. Sea breeze Initiated Rainfall over the east Coast of India during the Indian Southwest Monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, M; Warrior, H; Raman, S; Aswathanarayana, P A; Mohanty, U C; Suresh, R

    2006-09-05

    Sea breeze initiated convection and precipitation is investigated along the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon season. The sea breeze circulations are observed approximately 70 to 80% of the days during the summer months (June to August) along the Chennai coast. Observations of average sea breeze wind speeds are stronger at a rural location as compared to the wind speeds observed inside the urban region of Chennai. The sea breeze circulation is shown to be the dominant mechanism for initiating rainfall during the Indian southwest monsoon season. Roughly 80% of the total rainfall observed during the southwest monsoon over Chennai is directly related to the convection initiated by sea breeze circulation.

  17. Can the Southern annular mode influence the Korean summer monsoon rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Kripalani, Ramesh; Oh, Jaiho; Preethi, Bhaskar

    2017-05-01

    We demonstrate that a large-scale longitudinally symmetric global phenomenon in the Southern Hemisphere sub-polar region can transmit its influence over a remote local region of the Northern Hemisphere traveling more than 100° of latitudes (from 70°S to 40°N). This is illustrated by examining the relationship between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Korean Monsoon Rainfall (KMR) based on the data period 1983-2013. Results reveal that the May-June SAM (MJSAM) has a significant in-phase relationship with the subsequent KMR. A positive MJSAM is favorable for the summer monsoon rainfall over the Korean peninsula. The impact is relayed through the central Pacific Ocean. When a negative phase of MJSAM occurs, it gives rise to an anomalous meridional circulation in a longitudinally locked air-sea coupled system over the central Pacific that propagates from sub-polar to equatorial latitudes and is associated with the central Pacific warming. The ascending motion over the central Pacific descends over the Korean peninsula during peak-boreal summer resulting in weakening of monsoon rainfall. The opposite features prevail during a positive phase of SAM. Thus, the extreme modes of MJSAM could possibly serve as a predictor for ensuing Korean summer monsoon rainfall.

  18. The Indian summer monsoon rainfall: interplay of coupled dynamics, radiation and cloud microphysics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. K. Patra

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR, which has a strong connection to agricultural food production, has been less predictable by conventional models in recent times. Two distinct years 2002 and 2003 with lower and higher July rainfall, respectively, are selected to help understand the natural and anthropogenic influences on ISMR. We show that heating gradients along the meridional monsoon circulation are reduced due to aerosol radiative forcing and the Indian Ocean Dipole in 2002. An increase in the dust and biomass-burning component of the aerosols through the zonal monsoon circulation resulted in reduction of cloud droplet growth in July 2002. These conditions were opposite to those in July 2003 which led to an above average ISMR. In this study, we have utilized NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for meteorological data (e.g. sea-surface temperature, horizontal winds, and precipitable water, NOAA interpolated outgoing long-wave radiation, IITM constructed all-India rainfall amounts, aerosol parameters as observed from the TOMS and MODIS satellites, and ATSR fire count maps. Based on this analysis, we suggest that monsoon rainfall prediction models should include synoptic as well as interannual variability in both atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition.

  19. Subseasonal Predictability of Boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall from Ensemble Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Vigaud

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Subseasonal forecast skill over the broadly defined North American (NAM, West African (WAM and Asian (AM summer monsoon regions is investigated using three Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS at sub-monthly lead times. Extended Logistic Regression (ELR is used to produce probabilistic forecasts of weekly and week 3–4 averages of precipitation with starts in May–Aug, over the 1999–2010 period. The ELR tercile category probabilities for each model gridpoint are then averaged together with equal weight. The resulting Multi-Model Ensemble (MME forecasts exhibit good reliability, but have generally low sharpness for forecasts beyond 1 week; Multi-model ensembling largely removes negative values of the Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS seen in individual forecasts, and broadly improves the skill obtained in any of the three individual models except for the AM. The MME week 3–4 forecasts have generally higher RPSS and comparable reliability over all monsoon regions, compared to week 3 or week 4 forecast separately. Skill is higher during La Niña compared to El Niño and ENSO-neutral conditions over the 1999–2010 period, especially for the NAM. Regionally averaged RPSS is significantly correlated with the Maden-Julian Oscillation (MJO for the AM and WAM. Our results indicate potential for skillful predictions at subseasonal time-scales over the three summer monsoon regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

  20. Prediction of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over homogenous regions of India using dynamical prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramu, Dandi A.; Rao, Suryachadra A.; Pillai, Prasanth A.; Pradhan, M.; George, G.; Rao, D. Nagarguna; Mahapatra, S.; Pai, D. S.; Rajeevan, M.

    2017-03-01

    Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall is a challenging task for the modeling community and predicting seasonal mean rainfall at smaller regional scale is much more difficult than predicting all India averaged seasonal mean rainfall. The regional scale prediction of summer monsoon mean rainfall at longer lead time (e.g., predicting 3-4 months in advance) can play a vital role in planning of hydrological and agriculture aspects of the society. Previous attempts for predicting seasonal mean rainfall at regional level (over 5 Homogeneous regions) have resulted with limited success (anomaly correlation coefficient is low, ACC ≈ 0.1-0.4, even at a short lead time of one month). The high resolution Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) model, with spectral resolution of T382 (∼38 km), can predict the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) at lead time of 3-4 months, with a reasonably good prediction skill (ACC ≈ 0.55). In the present study, we have investigated whether the seasonal mean rainfall over different homogenous regions is predictable using the same model, at 3-4 months lead time? Out of five homogeneous regions of India three regions have shown moderate prediction skill, even at 3 months lead time. Compared to lower resolution model, high resolution model has good skill for all the regions except south peninsular India. High resolution model is able to capture the extreme events and also the teleconnections associated with large scale features at four months lead time and hence shows better skill (ACC ≈ 0.45) in predicting the seasonal mean rainfall over homogeneous regions.

  1. Amplification of the ENSO Effects on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall by Absorbing Aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sang, Jeong; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Woo-Seop

    2015-04-01

    In this study, we present observational evidence of the elevated heat pump (EHP) effect and modulation of the ENSO effect on Indian summer monsoon rainfall by absorbing aerosols based on a composite analysis of satellite measurements and MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2011. Results show that in the pre-monsoon season (April to May) rainfall during a La Nina is reduced over the expansive desert region from western Asia, including the Middle East, to northern India and thereby the La Nina effect provides abundant aerosols that are necessary to work the EHP effect in the northern India. Thus, the EHP effect due to abundant absorbing aerosols during a La Nina phase is strongly associated with atmospheric warming, increased moisture transport from the Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal, and enhanced pre-monsoon (May-June) rainfall over northern India. As a result, precipitation in May to June in northern India (20-30°N) increases by approximately 20% and 25% due to the pure ENSO (PENSO) and EHP effects, respectively, while precipitation in May and June increased by approximately 30% due to the combined effect. This finding suggests that the EHP effect plays an important role in amplifying the La Nina effect on Indian summer monsoon.

  2. Characteristics of medium range rainfall forecasts of the Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, K. J.; Iyengar, G. R.

    1999-05-01

    Mean characteristics of the rainfall forecasts produced by the global data analysis-forecast system of India are examined for the summer monsoons of 1993-1996. Further, daily rainfall forecasts (accumulated for 24 h) extending from day 1 to day 5 are utilised to compute monthly/seasonal mean forecast fields to study their consistency and reliability. Global patterns of rainfall forecasts are also compared with the large scale rainfall climatological fields. In addition, observed rainfall distributions over India are used for regional verification of the medium range rainfall forecasts.The forecasts appear to reproduce most of the large scale features of rainfall, except the sharp gradients over the Deccan plateau (leeside of the Western Ghats - west coast mountains over the south of Peninsular India) and the Gangetic plains over the north of India. Further, it is found that the forecast model has a characteristic tendency to reduce the quantum of rainfall over northwest India and the north Indian plains to the south of the Himalayas. In addition, in this study, certain aspects of the year-to-year variability of the predicted rainfall fields and their associated characteristics are examined along with the other systematic errors of the model. It is found that in this case, the sources of systematic errors could at least partially be eliminated, the rainfall forecasts up to day 3 or so can become a very useful product of interest.

  3. Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Yi Loo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

  4. Spatio-temporal variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    central Bay, Jharkhand and Bangladesh, that over the eastern side of the Eastern Ghats is adversely affected due to increase in LPS days over all the regions to the north of Orissa. There are significant decreasing trends in rainfall and number of rainy days over some parts of southwest Orissa during. June and decreasing ...

  5. Diurnal variations in rainfall over Arizona during the North American monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weser, Paul Joseph

    A majority of research on precipitation in the North American summer monsoon has focused on several characteristics of precipitation that include intensity, frequency, and amount. In general, the spatial and temporal variations in the character of monsoon precipitation have been analyzed using daily averages. These analyses have assisted in quantifying the variability in precipitation throughout the region, but they have not addressed diurnal variations in rainfall on time scales of less than one day. This research focused on diurnal precipitation for the state of Arizona during the North American Monsoon season of July through August. It characterized spatial and temporal variations in hourly precipitation event timing, and determined the intraseasonal and interannual relationship to elevation and climate teleconnections. Data were collected from 39 first-order, second order, and co-operative National Weather Service weather stations throughout Arizona for the period from 1948 through 2005. Application of a series of statistical tests (independent samples T-tests, harmonic analysis, linear regression, and Pearson Product-Moment correlation) and spatial analyses determined that the timing of diurnal rainfall on an intraseasonal basis has been consistent over time. These findings identified elevation as being a major factor in determining the first harmonic time of maximum precipitation frequency. High (low) elevation have consistent afternoon (evening) rainfall occurrence in each of four monsoon quarters (biweekly periods) and the season. Standardized hours of maximum precipitation frequency showed no distinct trend toward earlier or later time of event rainfall event occurrence for the period of study. A limited role is identified for various teleconnections indices and their phases (El Nino/La Nina, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific/North American teleconnection, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation) with regard to rainfall event timing. Analysis of climate

  6. Impacts of a warming marginal sea on torrential rainfall organized under the Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manda, Atsuyoshi; Nakamura, Hisashi; Asano, Naruhiko; Iizuka, Satoshi; Miyama, Toru; Moteki, Qoosaku; Yoshioka, Mayumi K.; Nishii, Kazuaki; Miyasaka, Takafumi

    2014-07-01

    Monsoonal airflow from the tropics triggers torrential rainfall over coastal regions of East Asia in summer, bringing flooding situations into areas of growing population and industries. However, impacts of rapid seasonal warming of the shallow East China Sea ECS and its pronounced future warming upon extreme summertime rainfall have not been explored. Here we show through cloudresolving atmospheric model simulations that observational tendency for torrential rainfall events over western Japan to occur most frequently in July cannot be reproduced without the rapid seasonal warming of ECS. The simulations also suggest that the future ECS warming will increase precipitation substantially in such an extreme event as observed in midJuly 2012 and also the likelihood of such an event occurring in June. A need is thus urged for reducing uncertainties in future temperature projections over ECS and other marginal seas for better projections of extreme summertime rainfall in the surrounding areas.

  7. Long-range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using data mining and statistical approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    H, Vathsala; Koolagudi, Shashidhar G.

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents a hybrid model to better predict Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The algorithm considers suitable techniques for processing dense datasets. The proposed three-step algorithm comprises closed itemset generation-based association rule mining for feature selection, cluster membership for dimensionality reduction, and simple logistic function for prediction. The application of predicting rainfall into flood, excess, normal, deficit, and drought based on 36 predictors consisting of land and ocean variables is presented. Results show good accuracy in the considered study period of 37years (1969-2005).

  8. Impact of atmospheric circulation types on southwest Asian dust and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Houssos, E. E.; Solmon, F.; Legrand, M.; Rashki, A.; Dumka, U. C.; Francois, P.; Gautam, R.; Singh, R. P.

    2018-03-01

    This study examines the meteorological feedback on dust aerosols and rainfall over the Arabian Sea and India during the summer monsoon using satellite data, re-analysis and a regional climate model. Based on days with excess aerosol loading over the central Ganges basin during May - September, two distinct atmospheric circulation types (weather clusters) are identified, which are associated with different dust-aerosol and rainfall distributions over south Asia, highlighting the role of meteorology on dust emissions and monsoon rainfall. Each cluster is characterized by different patterns of mean sea level pressure (MSLP), geopotential height at 700 hPa (Z700) and wind fields at 1000 hPa and at 700 hPa, thus modulating changes in dust-aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea. One cluster is associated with deepening of the Indian/Pakistan thermal low leading to (i) increased cyclonicity and thermal convection over northwestern India and Arabian Peninsula, (ii) intensification of the southwest monsoon off the Horn of Africa, iii) increase in dust emissions from Rub-Al-Khali and Somalian deserts, (iv) excess dust accumulation over the Arabian Sea and, (v) strengthening of the convergence of humid air masses and larger precipitation over Indian landmass compared to the other cluster. The RegCM4.4 model simulations for dust-aerosol and precipitation distributions support the meteorological fields and satellite observations, while the precipitation over India is positively correlated with the aerosol loading over the Arabian Sea on daily basis for both weather clusters. This study highlights the key role of meteorology and atmospheric dynamics on dust life cycle and rainfall over the monsoon-influenced south Asia.

  9. Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

    2018-03-01

    The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

  10. Indian summer monsoon rainfall: Dancing with the tunes of the sun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, K. M.; Manjunath, Hegde; Soon, Willie

    2015-02-01

    There is strong statistical evidence that solar activity influences the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. To search for a physical link between the two, we consider the coupled cloud hydrodynamic equations, and derive an equation for the rate of precipitation that is similar to the equation of a forced harmonic oscillator, with cloud and rain water mixing ratios as forcing variables. Those internal forcing variables are parameterized in terms of the combined effect of external forcing as measured by sunspot and coronal hole activities with several well known solar periods (9, 13 and 27 days; 1.3, 5, 11 and 22 years). The equation is then numerically solved and the results show that the variability of the simulated rate of precipitation captures very well the actual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall, yielding vital clues for a physical understanding that has so far eluded analyses based on statistical correlations alone. We also solved the precipitation equation by allowing for the effects of long-term variation of aerosols. We tentatively conclude that the net effects of aerosols variation are small, when compared to the solar factors, in terms of explaining the observed rainfall variability covering the full Indian monsoonal geographical domains.

  11. Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; He, Chao; Chen, Zesheng

    2017-10-01

    The agrarian-based socioeconomic livelihood of densely populated South Asian countries is vulnerable to modest changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. How the ISM rainfall will evolve is a question of broad scientific and socioeconomic importance. In response to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, climate models commonly project an increase in ISM rainfall. This wetter ISM projection, however, does not consider large model errors in both the mean state and ocean warming pattern. Here we identify a relationship between biases in simulated present climate and future ISM projections in a multi-model ensemble: models with excessive present-day precipitation over the tropical western Pacific tend to project a larger increase in ISM rainfall under GHG forcing because of too strong a negative cloud-radiation feedback on sea surface temperature. The excessive negative feedback suppresses the local ocean surface warming, strengthening ISM rainfall projections via atmospheric circulation. We calibrate the ISM rainfall projections using this `present-future relationship’ and observed western Pacific precipitation. The correction reduces by about 50% of the projected rainfall increase over the broad ISM region. Our study identifies an improved simulation of western Pacific convection as a priority for reliable ISM projections.

  12. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2018-01-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  13. Prediction of Monthly Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Global Climate Models Through Artificial Neural Network Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Archana; Singh, Gurjeet; Mohanty, U. C.

    2017-08-01

    The monthly prediction of summer monsoon rainfall is very challenging because of its complex and chaotic nature. In this study, a non-linear technique known as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been employed on the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to bring out the vagaries inherent in monthly rainfall prediction. The GCMs that are considered in the study are from the International Research Institute (IRI) (2-tier CCM3v6) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (Coupled-CFSv2). The ANN technique is applied on different ensemble members of the individual GCMs to obtain monthly scale prediction over India as a whole and over its spatial grid points. In the present study, a double-cross-validation and simple randomization technique was used to avoid the over-fitting during training process of the ANN model. The performance of the ANN-predicted rainfall from GCMs is judged by analysing the absolute error, box plots, percentile and difference in linear error in probability space. Results suggest that there is significant improvement in prediction skill of these GCMs after applying the ANN technique. The performance analysis reveals that the ANN model is able to capture the year to year variations in monsoon months with fairly good accuracy in extreme years as well. ANN model is also able to simulate the correct signs of rainfall anomalies over different spatial points of the Indian domain.

  14. Variations in the Cloud-Base Height over the Central Himalayas during GVAX:Association with the Monsoon Rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Narendra; Solanki, Raman; Ojha, N.; Naja, M.; Dumka, U. C.; Phanikumar, D. V.; Sagar, Ram; Satheesh, S. K.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Dhaka, S. K.

    2016-07-10

    We present the measurements of cloud-base height variations over Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Science, Nainital (79.45 degrees E, 29.37 degrees N, 1958 m amsl) obtained from Vaisala Ceilometer, during the nearly year-long Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX). The cloud-base measurements are analysed in conjunction with collocated measurements of rainfall, to study the possible contributions from different cloud types to the observed monsoonal rainfall during June to September 2011. The summer monsoon of 2011 was a normal monsoon year with total accumulated rainfall of 1035.8 mm during June-September with a maximum during July (367.0 mm) and minimum during September (222.3 mm). The annual mean monsoon rainfall over Nainital is 1440 +/- 430 mm. The total rainfall measured during other months (October 2011-March 2012) was only 9% of that observed during the summer monsoon. The first cloud-base height varied from about 31 m above ground level (AGL) to a maximum of 7.6 km AGL during the summer monsoon period of 2011. It is found that about 70% of the total rain is observed only when the first cloud-base height varies between surface and 2 km AGL, indicating that most of the rainfall at high altitude stations such as Nainital is associated with stratiform low-level clouds. However, about 25% of the total rainfall is being contributed by clouds between 2 and 6 km. The occurrences of high-altitude cumulus clouds are observed to be only 2-4%. This study is an attempt to fill a major gap of measurements over the topographically complex and observationally sparse northern Indian region providing the evaluation data for atmospheric models and therefore, have implications towards the better predictions of monsoon rainfall and the weather components over this region.

  15. Latitudinal variation in summer monsoon rainfall over Western Ghat of India and its association with global sea surface temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revadekar, J V; Varikoden, Hamza; Murumkar, P K; Ahmed, S A

    2017-09-11

    The Western Ghats (WG) of India are basically north-south oriented mountains having narrow zonal width with a steep rising western face. The summer monsoon winds during June to September passing over the Arabian Sea are obstructed by the WG and thus orographically uplift to produce moderate-to-heavy precipitation over the region. However, it is seen that characteristic features of rainfall distribution during the season vary from north to south. Also its correlation with all-India summer monsoon rainfall increases from south to north. In the present study, an attempt is also made to examine long-term as well as short-term trends and variability in summer monsoon rainfall over different subdivisions of WG using monthly rainfall data for the period 1871-2014. Konkan & Goa and Coastal Karnataka show increase in rainfall from 1871 to 2014 in all individual summer monsoon months. Short-term trend analysis based on 31-year sliding window indicates that the trends are not monotonous, but has epochal behavior. In recent epoch, magnitudes of negative trends are consistently decreasing and have changed its sign to positive during 1985-2014. It has been observed that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays a dominant positive role in rainfall over entire WG in all summer monsoon months, whereas role of Nino regions are asymmetric over WG rainfall. Indian summer monsoon is known for its negative relationship with Nino SST. Negative correlations are also seen for WG rainfall with Nino regions but only during onset and withdrawal phase. During peak monsoon months July and August subdivisions of WG mostly show positive correlation with Nino SST. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Rainfall trends in the South Asian summer monsoon and its related large-scale dynamics with focus over Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M.; Syed, F. S.; Hannachi, A.

    2017-06-01

    The study of regional rainfall trends over South Asia is critically important for food security and economy, as both these factors largely depend on the availability of water. In this study, South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trends on seasonal and monthly (June-September) time scales have been investigated using three observational data sets. Our analysis identify a dipole-type structure in rainfall trends over the region north of the Indo-Pak subcontinent, with significant increasing trends over the core monsoon region of Pakistan and significant decreasing trends over the central-north India and adjacent areas. The dipole is also evident in monthly rainfall trend analyses, which is more prominent in July and August. We show, in particular, that the strengthening of northward moisture transport over the Arabian Sea is a likely reason for the significant positive trend of rainfall in the core monsoon region of Pakistan. In contrast, over the central-north India region, the rainfall trends are significantly decreasing due to the weakening of northward moisture transport over the Bay of Bengal. The leading empirical orthogonal functions clearly show the strengthening (weakening) patterns of vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) in seasonal and monthly interannual time scales. The regression analysis between the principal components and rainfall confirm the dipole pattern over the region. Our results also suggest that the extra-tropical phenomena could influence the mean monsoon rainfall trends over Pakistan by enhancing the cross-equatorial flow of moisture into the Arabian Sea.

  17. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Srinivas

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative and above-normal onset (June positive phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over

  18. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Srinivas, C. V.

    2015-09-11

    This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP) global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department) rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid) of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast) with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative) and above-normal onset (June positive) phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over northeast, east and

  19. Importance of monsoon rainfall in mass fluxes of filtered and unfiltered mercury in Gwangyang Bay, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Jiyi; Han, Seunghee

    2011-03-15

    We investigated the effects of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), which brings approximately half of Korea's annual rainfall in July, on the concentration and particle-water partitioning, and sources of Hg in coastal waters. Surface seawater samples were collected from eight sites in Gwangyang Bay, Korea, during the monsoon (July, 2009) and non-monsoon dry (April and November, 2009) seasons and the concentrations of suspended particulate matter, chlorophyll-a, and unfiltered and filtered Hg were determined. We found significant (p0.05) between the monsoon (459 ± 141 pmol g(-1)) and the dry season (346 ± 30 pmol g(-1)), which resulted in decreased particle-water partition coefficients of Hg in the monsoon season compared to the values in the dry season: 5.7 ± 0.1 in April, 5.3 ± 0.1 in July, and 5.8 ± 0.1 in November. The annual Hg input to Gwangyang Bay was estimated at 64 ± 6.6 mol yr(-1) and 27 ± 1.9 mol yr(-1) for unfiltered and filtered Hg, respectively. The Hg discharged from rivers was a major source of Hg in Gwangyang Bay: the river input contributed 83 ± 13% of total input of unfiltered and 73 ± 6.0% of filtered Hg. On a monthly basis, unfiltered Hg input was 17 ± 11 mol month(-1) in the monsoon season and 3.2 ± 0.70 mol month(-1) in the dry season, while filtered Hg input was 7.1 ± 4.1 mol month(-1) in the monsoon and 1.3 ± 0.26 mol month(-1) in the dry. Consequently, the EASM resulted in an unfiltered Hg input 5.3 times greater than the mean dry month input and a filtered Hg input 5.5 times greater than the mean dry month input, which is mainly attributable to enhanced river water discharge during the monsoon season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Long range forecasting of summer monsoon rainfall from SST in the central equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Murthy, T.V.R.

    et al.4.The role of Eastern (Soman and Sling02;Rasmusson and Carpentir6 and Joseph et al.'6), and Western26.22.4 Pacific, north Australia-Indonesia region Nicholls 15.16 and Indian Ocean (Clark et al.8i Joseph and Pillar'~ Sadhuram18;Rao and Goswami 9... rainfall from sea surface temperature in the Indonesia north Australia area', Nature, Vol. 306, pp.576-577. 16. Nicholls, N., 1995, 'All India Summer monsoon rainfallandseasurfacetemperaturearoundnorthern Australia Indonesia',J. Clim.,8, 1463-1467. 17...

  1. Investigation of the aerosol-cloud-rainfall association over the Indian summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarangi, Chandan; Nand Tripathi, Sachchida; Kanawade, Vijay P.; Koren, Ilan; Sivanand Pai, D.

    2017-04-01

    Monsoonal rainfall is the primary source of surface water in India. Using 12 years of in situ and satellite observations, we examined the association of aerosol loading with cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, cloud top temperature, and daily surface rainfall over the Indian summer monsoon region (ISMR). Our results showed positive correlations between aerosol loading and cloud properties as well as rainfall. A decrease in outgoing longwave radiation and an increase in reflected shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere with an increase in aerosol loading further indicates a possible seminal role of aerosols in the deepening of cloud systems. Significant perturbation in liquid- and ice-phase microphysics was also evident over the ISMR. For the polluted cases, delay in the onset of collision-coalescence processes and an enhancement in the condensation efficiency allows for more condensate mass to be lifted up to the mixed colder phases. This results in the higher mass concentration of larger-sized ice-phase hydrometeors and, therefore, implies that the delayed rain processes eventually lead to more surface rainfall. A numerical simulation of a typical rainfall event case over the ISMR using a spectral bin microphysical scheme coupled with the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF-SBM) model was also performed. Simulated microphysics also illustrated that the initial suppression of warm rain coupled with an increase in updraft velocity under high aerosol loading leads to enhanced super-cooled liquid droplets above freezing level and ice-phase hydrometeors, resulting in increased accumulated surface rainfall. Thus, both observational and numerical analysis suggest that high aerosol loading may induce cloud invigoration, thereby increasing surface rainfall over the ISMR. While the meteorological variability influences the strength of the observed positive association, our results suggest that the persistent aerosol-associated deepening of cloud systems and an

  2. Understanding spatio-temporal variation of vegetation phenology and rainfall seasonality in the monsoon Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suepa, Tanita; Qi, Jiaguo; Lawawirojwong, Siam; Messina, Joseph P

    2016-05-01

    The spatio-temporal characteristics of remote sensing are considered to be the primary advantage in environmental studies. With long-term and frequent satellite observations, it is possible to monitor changes in key biophysical attributes such as phenological characteristics, and relate them to climate change by examining their correlations. Although a number of remote sensing methods have been developed to quantify vegetation seasonal cycles using time-series of vegetation indices, there is limited effort to explore and monitor changes and trends of vegetation phenology in the Monsoon Southeast Asia, which is adversely affected by changes in the Asian monsoon climate. In this study, MODIS EVI and TRMM time series data, along with field survey data, were analyzed to quantify phenological patterns and trends in the Monsoon Southeast Asia during 2001-2010 period and assess their relationship with climate change in the region. The results revealed a great regional variability and inter-annual fluctuation in vegetation phenology. The phenological patterns varied spatially across the region and they were strongly correlated with climate variations and land use patterns. The overall phenological trends appeared to shift towards a later and slightly longer growing season up to 14 days from 2001 to 2010. Interestingly, the corresponding rainy season seemed to have started earlier and ended later, resulting in a slightly longer wet season extending up to 7 days, while the total amount of rainfall in the region decreased during the same time period. The phenological shifts and changes in vegetation growth appeared to be associated with climate events such as EL Niño in 2005. Furthermore, rainfall seemed to be the dominant force driving the phenological changes in naturally vegetated areas and rainfed croplands, whereas land use management was the key factor in irrigated agricultural areas. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Explaining regionally coherent trends in daily rainfall extremes during the Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, M.; Boos, W. R.; Huybers, P. J.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events during the Indian monsoon can have deleterious effects on the Indian economy, where an estimated two-thirds of the population is employed in the agricultural sector. With increasing mean temperature, rainfall variability is also expected to change. Here, we identify regionally coherent patterns of 1980-2015 time trends for 95th-99th percentile daily JJAS rainfall events over the Indian subcontinent. Using a 0.25 by 0.25 degree resolution rainfall data-set that incorporates nearly 7000 weather stations, at least three times as many as the 1 degree by 1 degree IMD Pune data-set, we find that time-trends over the western slope of the Western Ghats change from negative to positive with higher elevation, whereas previous work using a coarser network of stations have found overall declines. Less apparent in the coarser data but present in the finer resolution data-set are marked declines in extremes over the Indo-Gangetic Plains. This may be linked to declining average rainfall over northeastern central India, which has been attributed to aerosols through modeling studies. However, consistency in trends between both fine and coarse resolution data-sets is seen in the increases in extremes across North Central India. Extreme events in each of three regions-North Central India, the Western Ghats, and interior Peninsular India-can be connected with low pressure systems and orographic precipitation, possibly allowing for inferences about the reasons for observed trends. Understanding temporal changes in these phenomena may assist in future prediction of local extreme daily rainfall events.

  4. Easterly wave activity and associated heavy rainfall during the pre-monsoon season of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawaisarje, G. K.; Khare, Prakash; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Puviarasan, N.; Ranalkar, M. R.

    2017-12-01

    Waves in easterlies are a tropical disturbance, which are moving from east to west or west-northwest (WNW). Over the Indian region, easterly waves occur mainly in winter, pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. These easterly waves have attracted the attention of many researchers due to the associated heavy rainfall, lightning and thunder squalls. Influence of easterly waves is less explored during pre-monsoon season. It is seen that during years 2001-2015, a total of 80 cases of trough in easterlies were witnessed by southern peninsular India in the pre-monsoon season. The maxima occurred in March (43 cases), followed by April (25 cases) and May (12 cases). It is observed that the year 2005 witnessed the longest spell of easterly waves for 18 days during 24 March to 10 April 2005, which is quite unusual. The event has claimed a death toll of 55 people in the two states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and heavy rains associated with this event damaged many houses and huts in Tamil Nadu. The unusual nature of the event has prompted us to undertake the study in details. In all, the event witnessed six systems as troughs in easterlies with their movement westwards from south Andaman Sea region to Lakshadweep and southeast Arabian Sea and Sri Lanka and adjoining Cape Comorin area. An attempt has been made to study the event of easterly waves during the year 2005 by exploring winds, temperature advection, vorticity, moisture convergence and potential instability. The causative reason is due to culmination of positive temperature advection, its multiple interactions with deep convective clouds and moisture incursion from anticyclonic flow close to eastern coast of south peninsular region of India. Observing the waves with the internal mechanism makes the study useful for operational forecasting and provides a better understanding of easterly waves.

  5. On the statistical aspects of sunspot number time series and its association with the summer-monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Chattopadhyay, Goutami

    The present paper reports studies on the association between the mean annual sunspot numbers and the summer monsoon rainfall over India. The cross correlations have been studied. After Box-Cox transformation, the time spectral analysis has been executed and it has been found that both of the time series have an important spectrum at the fifth harmonic. An artificial neural network (ANN) model has been developed on the data series averaged continuously by five years and the neural network could establish a predictor-predict and relationship between the sunspot numbers and the mean yearly summer monsoon rainfall over India.

  6. Simulation skill of APCC set of global climate models for Asian summer monsoon rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, U. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Vikas

    2015-04-01

    The performance of 11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) global climate models (coupled and uncoupled both) in simulating the seasonal summer (June-August) monsoon rainfall variability over Asia (especially over India and East Asia) has been evaluated in detail using hind-cast data (3 months advance) generated from APCC which provides the regional climate information product services based on multi-model ensemble dynamical seasonal prediction systems. The skill of each global climate model over Asia was tested separately in detail for the period of 21 years (1983-2003), and simulated Asian summer monsoon rainfall (ASMR) has been verified using various statistical measures for Indian and East Asian land masses separately. The analysis found a large variation in spatial ASMR simulated with uncoupled model compared to coupled models (like Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Japan Meteorological Agency). The simulated ASMR in coupled model was closer to Climate Prediction Centre Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) compared to uncoupled models although the amount of ASMR was underestimated in both models. Analysis also found a high spread in simulated ASMR among the ensemble members (suggesting that the model's performance is highly dependent on its initial conditions). The correlation analysis between sea surface temperature (SST) and ASMR shows that that the coupled models are strongly associated with ASMR compared to the uncoupled models (suggesting that air-sea interaction is well cared in coupled models). The analysis of rainfall using various statistical measures suggests that the multi-model ensemble (MME) performed better compared to individual model and also separate study indicate that Indian and East Asian land masses are more useful compared to Asia monsoon rainfall as a whole. The results of various statistical measures like skill of multi-model ensemble, large spread

  7. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-02-01

    Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

  8. Enhancement of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks on the Australian summer monsoon by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notaro, Michael

    2018-01-01

    A regional climate modeling analysis of the Australian monsoon system reveals a substantial modulation of vegetation-rainfall feedbacks by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), both of which operate at similar sub-seasonal time scales, as evidence that the intensity of land-atmosphere interactions is sensitive to the background atmospheric state. Based on ensemble experiments with imposed modification of northern Australian leaf area index (LAI), the atmospheric responses to LAI anomalies are composited for negative and positive modes of the propagating MJO. In the regional climate model (RCM), northern Australian vegetation feedbacks are characterized by evapotranspiration (ET)-driven rainfall responses, with the moisture feedback mechanism dominating over albedo and roughness feedback mechanisms. During November-April, both Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and RCM data reveal MJO's pronounced influence on rainfall patterns across northern Australia, tropical Indian Ocean, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea, and Gulf of Carpentaria, with the MJO dominating over vegetation feedbacks in terms of regulating monsoon rainfall variability. Convectively-active MJO phases support an enhancement of positive vegetation feedbacks on monsoon rainfall. While the MJO imposes minimal regulation of ET responses to LAI anomalies, the vegetation feedback-induced responses in precipitable water, cloud water, and rainfall are greatly enhanced during convectively-active MJO phases over northern Australia, which are characterized by intense low-level convergence and efficient precipitable water conversion. The sub-seasonal response of vegetation-rainfall feedback intensity to the MJO is complex, with significant enhancement of rainfall responses to LAI anomalies in February during convectively-active MJO phases compared to minimal modulation by the MJO during prior and subsequent calendar months.

  9. Examining Spatio-Temporal Intensity-Frequency Variations in Extreme Monsoon Rainfall using High Resolution Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devak, M.; Rajendran, V.; C T, D.

    2015-12-01

    The study of extreme events has gained the attention of hydrologists in recent times. Though these events are rare, the effects are catastrophic. It is reported that the frequency of the occurrence of these events has increased in recent decades, and is attributed to the recent revelation of climate change. Numerous studies have pointed out significant changes in extremely heavy precipitation over India, using coarse resolution data. Though there are disagreements in the results and its spatial uniformity, all these studies emphasize the need of fine resolution analysis. Fine resolution analysis is necessary mainly due to the highly heterogeneous characteristics of Indian monsoon, and for the proper employment in flood hazard preparedness and water resources management. The present study aims to analyse the spatio-temporal variation and trends in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation during Indian monsoon using 0.25°×0.25° resolution gridded data for a period of 113 years (1901-2013). The exceedance threshold is fixed at 90th percentile of rainfall over 113 years and parameters are defined accordingly. The maximum intensity of each extreme rainfall episode of 30 year moving window has been modelled using Peak Over Threshold based Extreme Value Theory to compute return level (considered for intensity). In addition, the number of such episodes in a particular year has been termed as frequency. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been carried out for both intensity and frequency, to compute the statistical trend. In addition, moving block bootstrap approach has been used to incorporate the serial correlation. The significance of the trend has been evaluated at different significance levels and finally, change in trend over last century has been examined.

  10. Intraseasonal to interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall and its influence on the Agricultural corps in mountainous Kashmir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Z.; Saeed, S.

    2012-04-01

    By using high resolution APHRODITE precipitation and meteorological station data (1961-2007) the present study examines the intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall over mountainous Kashmir and its influence on the agricultural crops such as Maiz and Wheat. It is found that an intraseasonal to interannual variability of the monsoon rainfall can severely affect the crop production in the hilly areas of Kashmir. We found an increasing trend in the extreme precipitation events over Kashmir and adjacent areas in the recent years. The associated crop production shows significant decreasing trend especially over the hilly areas in Kashmir. The enhanced rainfall can result in the soil erosion that impose a major threat to sustainable agriculture in the mountainous areas of Kashmir. The heavy rainfall associated with the orographic uplifitng removes the uppermost fertile layer of soil, depleting fertility and leaving the soil in poor physical condition. This further causes severe deficiency of most important nutrients required for plant growth and crop yield. We further analysed the IPCC AR4 ECHAM5/MPIOM climate model simulations to examine the future interannual variability of monsoon rainfall over Kashmir and adjoining areas. In the following we analysed the transient run with a 1% per year increase in CO2 until reaching double concentrations and held constant thereafter. We found enhanced interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall (July-August) with increasing drought like conditions over Kashmir and adjoining northern parts of Pakistan in future climate. The enhanced interannual variability of precipitation in future could further affect severely growth of various agricultural crops in mountainous parts of Kashmir.

  11. Impact of the modulated annual cycle and intraseasonal oscillation on daily-to-interannual rainfall variability across monsoonal India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moron, Vincent [Aix-Marseille Univ, CEREGE UMR 6635 CNRS, Aix en Provence cedex 4 (France); Institut Universitaire de France, Paris (France); Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute, Palisades, NY (United States); Robertson, Andrew W. [Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute, Palisades, NY (United States); Ghil, Michael [University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France)

    2012-06-15

    Variability of the Indian summer monsoon is decomposed into an interannually modulated annual cycle (MAC) and a northward-propagating, intraseasonal (30-60-day) oscillation (ISO). To achieve this decomposition, we apply multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) simultaneously to unfiltered daily fields of observed outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and to reanalyzed 925-hPa winds over the Indian region, from 1975 to 2008. The MAC is essentially given by the year-to-year changes in the annual and semi-annual components; it displays a slow northward migration of OLR anomalies coupled with an alternation between the northeast winter and southwest summer monsoons. The impact of these oscillatory modes on rainfall is then analyzed using a 1-degree gridded daily data set, focusing on Monsoonal India (north of 17 N and west of 90 E) during the months of June to September. Daily rainfall variability is partitioned into three states using a Hidden Markov Model. Two of these states are shown to agree well with previous classifications of ''active'' and ''break'' phases of the monsoon, while the third state exhibits a dipolar east-west pattern with abundant rainfall east of about 77 E and low rainfall to the west. Occurrence of the three rainfall states is found to be an asymmetric function of both the MAC and ISO components. On average, monsoon active phases are favored by large positive anomalies of MAC, and breaks by negative ones. ISO impact is decisive when the MAC is near neutral values during the onset and withdrawal phases of the monsoon. Active monsoon spells are found to require a synergy between the MAC and ISO, while the east-west rainfall dipole is less sensitive to interactions between the two. The driest years, defined from spatially averaged June-September rainfall anomalies, are found to be mostly a result of breaks occurring during the onset and withdrawal stages of the monsoon, e.g., mid-June to mid-July, and

  12. North-East monsoon rainfall extremes over the southern peninsular India and their association with El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Prem; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don't. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than -1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for

  13. The dynamic and thermodynamic structure of monsoon low-pressure systems during extreme rainfall events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silje Lund Sørland

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A cyclone-tracking algorithm is used to identify monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS in the ERA-interim re-analysis (1979–2010. The LPS that are connected to observed extreme rainfall events are picked out and studied with a focus on their dynamic and thermodynamic structure. Cyclone composite clearly shows the general structure of the LPS, with a pronounced cold core at lower levels and warm core aloft. Evaporative cooling from the falling precipitation is proposed to generate the cold core. The temperature gradients across the cyclone centre are strongest in the early phase of the low. We suggest the baroclinic instability to be important in the development phase of the LPS, whereas the upward motion ahead of the low is maintained through latent heat release in the mature phase. This cooperation between the large-scale flow and the cumulus convection is known as the conditional instability of second kind (CISK. From the composites of the time steps where the extreme precipitation is occurring, a colocation of the strong updraft and vertical velocity is shown. Based on this, we suggest the extreme rainfall events to be a result of the LPS dynamics, which is dominated by the CISK mechanism at this stage of the low. Correlation and co-variability between the LPS precipitation and different meteorological parameters are performed, and we find the LPS precipitation to show a large sensitivity to variability in the vertical velocity and specific humidity at 750 hPa.

  14. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2017-09-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  15. Association between premonsoonal SST anomaly field in the eastern Arabian Sea and subsequent monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.; Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sarma, M.S.S.

    -September) summer monsoon rainfall over the central west coast of India. Premonsoonal warm SST anomaly seems to be mainly the result of higher atmospheric subsidence over the ocean and may not be considered as predictor for a good ensuing monsoon, emphasizing...

  16. Sporadic, rainfall triggered landslides and debris flows in the monsoon, Nepal Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fort, Monique; Etienne, Cossart; Alexis, Conte; Natacha, Gribenski; Gilles, Arnaud-Fassetta

    2010-05-01

    Small river catchments play a major role in the overall denudation of the Himalayas, because they may generate extreme, geomorphic events. We characterize their potential impacts on the morphology and functioning of trunk rivers, and indirectly on infrastructure and settlements located along the valley floor. Our study case, the Ghatte Khola, is an intermittent tributary of the Kali Gandaki (Western Nepal) affected by occasional debris flow events. The cause of the debris flows is a persistent planar slide zone (dip slope) that is reactivated by pre- or monsoon heavy rainfall on the upper, forested catchment. As a result, the narrow valley of the upstream part of the tributary is temporary clogged by slide masses, until sudden, landslide outburst floods occur. Downstream, where the channel is entrenched across a 5-8 m thick debris fan, the functioning of successive debris flows cause bank erosion and stream channel widening. At the junction with the Kali Gandaki, the flows may aggrade debris volumes large enough to dam the Kali Gandaki for a few hours and cause the level of this major river to rise more than 5 m upstream. During the last 40 years, pulsed aggradations transferred erosion point to the opposite (left bank) side of the Kali Gandaki. This ephemeral, yet threatening behaviour of the stream, occurs every two or three years, according to field investigations (geomorphic mapping, sediment analysis) and interviews of villagers. We present various scenarios simulated using the SAGA-GIS cellular automata combined with a Digital Elevation Model. We discuss the available rainfall intensity-duration thresholds susceptible to trigger Himalayan landslides. Our study suggests that such high-magnitude/low-frequency events are very efficient to foster sediment fluxes and create temporary sediment storages in Himalayan valleys, a fact that is to be considered prior to any new settlement and road design in a country where infrastructures are rapidly developing.

  17. Future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes over India with statistical downscaling and its consistency with observed characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shashikanth, Kulkarni; Ghosh, Subimal; H, Vittal; Karmakar, Subhankar

    2017-03-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes and their changing characteristics under global warming have remained a potential area of research and a topic of scientific debate over the last decade. This partially attributes to multiple definitions of extremes reported in the past studies and poor understanding of the changing processes associated with extremes. The later one results into poor simulation of extremes by coarse resolution General Circulation Models under increased greenhouse gas emission which further deteriorates due to inadequate representation of monsoon processes in the models. Here we use transfer function based statistical downscaling model with non-parametric kernel regression for the projection of extremes and find such conventional regional modeling fails to simulate rainfall extremes over India. In this conjuncture, we modify the downscaling algorithm by applying a robust regression to the gridded extreme rainfall events. We observe, inclusion of robust regression to the downscaling algorithm improves the historical simulation of rainfall extremes at a 0.25° spatial resolution, as evaluated based on classical extreme value theory methods, viz., block maxima and peak over threshold. The future projections of extremes during 2081-2100, obtained with the developed algorithm show no change to slight increase in the spatial mean of extremes with dominance of spatial heterogeneity. These changing characteristics in future are consistent with the observed recent changes in extremes over India. The proposed methodology will be useful for assessing the impacts of climate change on extremes; specifically while spatially mapping the risk to rainfall extremes over India.

  18. Role of low level flow on the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent during two contrasting monsoon years

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Swapna, P.; RameshKumar, M.R.

    . In the present study, we look into the role of the low level flow during two contrasting monsoon years, viz., 1987 (deficit) and 1988 (excess) using the daily data from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis and European Centre...

  19. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October-December) season

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Maneesha, K.

    -December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index - RI), is positively and significantly correlated(r = 0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984-2013. By using the first...

  20. The Changing Relationship between Surface Temperatures and Indian Monsoon Rainfall with the Phase of ESI Tendency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. B. Kakade

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective Strength Index (ESI is the relative strength of NAO and SO. ESI tendency is the algebraic difference between April-ESI and January-ESI and it represents the simultaneous evolution of NAO and SO from winter to spring. During positive (negative phase of ESI tendency, NAO restores positive (negative phase and SO restores negative (positive phase before the beginning of summer season. Thus during contrasting phases (positive and negative of ESI tendency, the evolution of NAO and SO is out of phase. In this paper we have studied the spatial and temporal variability of winter-time temperature field over Europe, Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during contrasting phases of ESI tendency. The study reveals that during positive (negative ESI tendency, smaller (larger region of Europe is showing significant winter-time cooling (warming at surface. The relationship between winter-time surface temperature over above regions and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR also shows spatial and temporal variability. The probable explanation for this change in the relationship is discussed in the paper. Two sets of temperature parameters for two different phases of ESI tendency are found out. Multiple regression equations are developed for the prediction of ISMR in each phase of ESI tendency. The performance of these equations is also discussed in this paper.

  1. Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

    2016-04-01

    A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project

  2. Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

    KAUST Repository

    Sagalgile, Archana P.

    2017-10-26

    This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

  3. Potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Salunke, Kiran; Dhakate, Ashish; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Rahaman, Hasibur; Sujith, K.; Hazra, Anupam; Sikka, D. R.

    2016-03-01

    The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), soil moisture, and sea surface temperature (SST) is explored in the latest version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) retrospective forecast at five different lead times. The focus of this study is to find out the sensitivity of the potential predictability of the ISMR to the initial condition through analysis of variance technique (ANOVA), information-based measure, including relative entropy (RE), mutual information (MI), and classical perfect model correlation. In general, the all methods show an increase in potential predictability with a decrease in lead time. Predictability is large over the Pacific Ocean basin as compared to that of the Indian Ocean basin. However, over the Indian land region the potential predictability increases from lead-4 to lead-2 and then decreases at lead-1 followed by again increase at lead-0. While the actual ISMR prediction skill is highest at lead-3 forecast (second highest at lead-1), the potential predictability is highest at lead-2. It is found that highest and second highest actual prediction skill of the ISMR in CFSv2 is due to the combined effects of initial Eurasian snow and SST over Indian, west Pacific and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean region. While the teleconnection between the ISMR and El Niño-Southern Oscillation is too strong, the ISMR and Indian Ocean dipole have completely out of phase relation in the model as compared to the observation. Furthermore, the actual prediction skill of the ISMR is now very close to the potential predictability limit. Therefore, in order to improve the ISMR prediction skill further, development of model physics as well as improvements in the initial conditions is required.

  4. Possible impacts of the pre-monsoon dry line and sea breeze front on nocturnal rainfall over northeast Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiller-Reeve, Mathew; Toniazzo, Thomas; Kolstad, Erik; Spengler, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    The northeast region of Bangladesh receives a large amount of rainfall before the large-scale monsoon circulation begins. For example, in April (a "pre-monsoon" month) 2010, 804 mm of rain fell in the regional capital Sylhet. It was the second wettest month of the entire year. From our conversations with the local people, we know that this pre-monsoon rainfall is extremely important to their livelihoods. We therefore need to understand it's triggering mechanisms. Several theories have been published, all of which are likely to be at play. However, in this work we look more closely at how the sea breeze front and prominent pre-monsoonal dry line in this region may play a role. If these mechanisms play a role in the convection, then it is likely that they trigger convection further afield, and then the resulting systems then propagate towards northeast Bangladesh. We believe this because rainfall associated with dry line/sea-breeze front convection often occurs during the late afternoon, but the rainfall over northeast Bangladesh shows a clear late-night/early-morning maxima. At present, the temporal and spatial resolution of the regional observations is inappropriate for examining these possible mechanisms. We therefore use a numerical model (WRF) to investigate the possible links between the convection and the sea breeze front and dry line. We use April 2010 as a case study since it was such a wet pre-monsoon month. The simulation shows that a sea breeze circulation often develops during the day in the coastal zone of Bangladesh and northeast India. After sunset the sea breeze front propagates inland pushing back the hot, dry air over India. On several days during the simulation, convection is triggered along the sea breeze front, which then propagates towards northeast Bangladesh and intensifies across the topography surrounding the Sylhet region. From our simulations, it appears that nocturnal convection over northeast Bangladesh is triggered by several

  5. Spatial analysis of temporal trend of rainfall and rainy days during the Indian Summer Monsoon season using daily gridded (0.5° × 0.5°) rainfall data for the period of 1971–2005

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Das, Prabir Kumar; Chakraborty, Abhishek; Seshasai, M. V. R

    2014-01-01

    Daily gridded (0.5° × 0.5°) rainfall data between 1971 and 2005 were used to detect spatial patterns of trend in rainfall and rainy days during the Indian Summer Monsoon (June to September). A non‐parametric (Mann–Kendall test...

  6. Impact of monsoon rainfall on the total food grain yield over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The study focuses on understanding the variations of precipitation during summer monsoon season and its impact on Kharif and Rabi foodgrain yield over India. Total foodgrain yield over India during Kharif (summer) season is directly affected by variations in the summer monsoon precipitation (June–September).

  7. A 507-year rainfall and runoff reconstruction for the Monsoonal North West, Australia derived from remote paleoclimate archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Hancock, Gregory R.; Lowry, John B.

    2017-11-01

    The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond.

  8. The 20th century transitions in basic and extreme monsoon rainfall indices in India: Comparison of the ETCCDI indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panda, Dileep K.; Panigrahi, P.; Mohanty, S.; Mohanty, R. K.; Sethi, R. R.

    2016-11-01

    The mean and extreme matrices of the monsoon rainfall in India not only play an important role in depicting the global monsoon climate, but also their spatiotemporal patterns influence the socio-economic profile of a major proportion of the country's huge population. Given the reported conflicting trends at the global and national scales, the present study investigates the 20th century (1901-2004) changes in monsoon rainfall of India, particularly focusing the indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to facilitate a global comparison. Result of this comprehensive analysis, which includes the response of fifteen indices over two study periods (i.e., 1901-1940 and 1961-2004), indicates clear signals of change with respect to the period and region of study and the choice of the ETCCDI indices. While wet day frequency, low-to-moderate events and consecutive wet days (CWD) exhibit a prominent transition from a pre-1940 wetting to a post-1960 drying tendency over a large part of the central-north India (CNI), both the wet and dry extremes have occurred in a spatially less consistent manner during the recent decades. For consecutive dry days (CDD), the reported less clear global signals could be related to the timescale of analysis, as our sub-seasonal scale results display consistent changes compared to that of the seasonal and annual scales. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) provides clear indications of a post-1960 non-stationarity, showing changes in the mean as well as variance. Based on the partial Mann-Kendall test (PMK), some of the identified rainfall trends during 1961-2004 are found to be influenced more by the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index. These results have important implications for formulating the water resource management strategy, particularly over the drying central and northern parts of the country.

  9. Long-range forecast of monthly rainfall over India during summer monsoon season using SST in the north Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.

    models by De l sole and Shukla 3 . They showed that minimum number of predi c tors are sufficient for accurate forecasts. R e cen t studies 4,5 reported lon g - range pr e diction of summer monsoon rainfall using Art i- ficial Neural Network (ANN... riod I. RMSE for the whole p eriod (excluding 2002) were of the o r de r of ?2 to ?5 cm for period I. For p e riod II, the RMSE are ?2 to ?5 cm and ?3 to ?6 c m for the training period and tes t ing periods respectively. RMSE...

  10. Influence of eastern Arabian Sea on summer monsoon rainfall over west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshBabu, V.; Rao, M.S.; Rao, M.V.

    Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been assigned as one of the boundary conditions in the global circulation models for simulation of climatic changes. The effects of SST anomalies on the summer monsoon simulations are both of local...

  11. Dust load and rainfall characteristics and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various warming scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

    2017-08-01

    Present study investigates the similarities and differences in the pattern of dust load and rainfall and their relationship over the South Asian monsoon region under various future warming scenarios with respect to the historical period using multiple coupled climate model runs that participated in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on statistically robust significance tests, we unravel several likely changes in the pattern of the dust load and rainfall over the South Asia under different future warming scenarios by the end of 21st century compared to the historical period. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test results reveal a significant change (at 5% significance level) in the amount of dust and rainfall under different warming scenarios over the study region. Northern part of the Indian subcontinent is likely to witness increased dust loading in future, and regions with increase in dust load are also likely to be the regions of increased rainfall over North India. Positive correlation between rainfall over the Indian region and dust over the Arabian region is also likely to strengthen in future. Considerable changes in the spatial correlation pattern between dust and rainfall are noted under different representative concentration pathways; however, no noteworthy changes are recorded in their temporal relationship. Notable intermodel differences in the patterns of dust load and rainfall relationship over South Asia are possibly caused by variations in the dust emission schemes among the CMIP5 models as well as the parameterization of aerosol indirect effect in addition to the differences in the meteorology simulated by various models under identical forcing scenarios.

  12. Simulation of boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall using CFSV2_SSiB model: sensitivity to Land Use Land Cover (LULC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The land surface play a vital role in determining the surface energy budget, accurate representation of land use and land cover (LULC) is necessary to improve forecast. In this study, we have investigated the influence of surface vegetation maps with different LULC on simulating the boreal summer monsoon rainfall. Using a National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) model coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, two experiments were conducted: one with old vegetation map and one with new vegetation map. The significant differences between new and old vegetation map were in semi-arid and arid areas. For example, in old map Tibetan plateau classified as desert, which is not appropriate, while in new map it was classified as grasslands or shrubs with bare soil. Old map classified the Sahara desert as a bare soil and shrubs with bare soil, whereas in new map it was classified as bare ground. In addition to central Asia and the Sahara desert, in new vegetation map, Europe had more cropped area and India's vegetation cover was changed from crops and forests to wooded grassland and small areas of grassland and shrubs. The simulated surface air temperature with new map shows a significant improvement over Asia, South Africa, and northern America by some 1 to 2ºC and 2 to 3ºC over north east China and these are consistent with the reduced rainfall biases over Africa, near Somali coast, north east India, Bangladesh, east China sea, eastern Pacific and northern USA. Over Indian continent and bay of Bengal dry rainfall anomalies that is the only area showing large dry rainfall bias, however, they were unchanged with new map simulation. Overall the CFSv2(coupled with SSiB) model with new vegetation map show a promising result in improving the monsoon forecast by improving the Land -Atmosphere interactions. To compare with the LULC forcing, experiment was conducted using the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations

  13. Effects of the Cold Tongue in the South China Sea on the Monsoon, Diurnal Cycle and Rainfall in the Maritime Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shunya; Koh, Tieh-Yong; Kiat Teo, Chee

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the effects of the Cold Tongue in the South China Sea (SCS) on the winter monsoon, rainfall and diurnal cycle in the Maritime Continent using a numerical model verified with satellite rainfall and reanalysis data. Composite analysis of the observation and reanalysis data based on Cold Tongue Index indicates that the penetration of the monsoon to Java Sea is enhanced when the cold tongue is strong. A sensitivity experiment without the cold tongue shows that the winter monsoon is diminished over SCS and around coastal regions because of anomalous low-level cyclonic circulation associated with enhanced convection over SCS due to the warmer SST. The diurnal cycle, in particular, the night-morning rainfall over the ocean in coastal regions is modified. The effect on daytime rainfall over the land is weaker. Along the northern coast of Java far from SCS, the night-morning rainfall is much reduced over Java Sea when the cold tongue is suppressed because of the weakened land breeze front due to the weakened northerly monsoon. In contrast, the afternoon-evening rainfall on Java Island is enhanced showing that the local impacts are not simply the result of large-scale subsidence from the convective anomaly in SCS. Along the northwestern coast of Borneo adjacent to SCS, the weakened winter monsoon tends to reduce the rainfall at the land breeze front near the coastline. On the other hand, the warmer SST forces a stronger land breeze and the weakened monsoon encourages further and faster offshore propagation of the land breeze front. Consequently, the rainfall peak shifts further offshore in the sensitivity experiment. We conclude that the cold tongue has two effects, the sustenance of a strong monsoon (indirect effect) and the cooling of local SST (direct effect), which have opposite influences on the diurnal cycle in the Maritime Continent. Reference: Koseki, S., T. Y. Koh and C. K. Teo (2012), "Effects of the Cold Tongue in the South China Sea on the Monsoon

  14. Multiscale characterization and prediction of monsoon rainfall in India using Hilbert-Huang transform and time-dependent intrinsic correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adarsh, S.; Reddy, M. Janga

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) approach is used for the multiscale characterization of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) time series and monsoon rainfall time series from five homogeneous regions in India. The study employs the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) for multiscale decomposition of monsoon rainfall in India and uses the Normalized Hilbert Transform and Direct Quadrature (NHT-DQ) scheme for the time-frequency characterization. The cross-correlation analysis between orthogonal modes of All India monthly monsoon rainfall time series and that of five climate indices such as Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Sunspot Number (SN), Atlantic Multi Decadal Oscillation (AMO), and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) in the time domain showed that the links of different climate indices with monsoon rainfall are expressed well only for few low-frequency modes and for the trend component. Furthermore, this paper investigated the hydro-climatic teleconnection of ISMR in multiple time scales using the HHT-based running correlation analysis technique called time-dependent intrinsic correlation (TDIC). The results showed that both the strength and nature of association between different climate indices and ISMR vary with time scale. Stemming from this finding, a methodology employing Multivariate extension of EMD and Stepwise Linear Regression (MEMD-SLR) is proposed for prediction of monsoon rainfall in India. The proposed MEMD-SLR method clearly exhibited superior performance over the IMD operational forecast, M5 Model Tree (MT), and multiple linear regression methods in ISMR predictions and displayed excellent predictive skill during 1989-2012 including the four extreme events that have occurred during this period.

  15. The impacts of the summer plateau monsoon over the Tibetan Plateau on the rainfall in the Tarim Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yong; Huang, Anning; Zhou, Yang; Yang, Qing

    2016-10-01

    The impacts of the summer plateau monsoon (PM) over the Tibetan Plateau on summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin in northwest China are investigated, based on the observed rainfall data at 34 stations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1961 to 2007. Results showed that the PM is well correlated to the summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin. Process analysis shows that strong PM corresponds to an anomalous cyclone over the Tibetan Plateau in the middle troposphere and an anomalous anticyclone in the upper troposphere over northwest part of Tibetan Plateau. They result in cold air moving from high latitudes into Central Asia over the western part of Tibetan Plateau. The concurrences of the cooling in the middle-upper troposphere over Central Asia leads to an anomalous cyclone over Central Asia at 500 hPa and the anomalous descending motions prevailing over the cooling region. Associated with this anomaly, there are enhanced southerly winds and corresponding ascending motion over the Tarim Basin located in the east of the cooling region. These processes lead to more summer rainfall over the Tarim Basin.

  16. Deployment and Performance of an X-Band Dual-Polarization Radar during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Shi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available An X-band dual-polarization radar (XPRAD was deployed in Guangdong province as part of the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX during the storm season in 2016. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of XPRAD observations during SCMREX with emphasis on data processing and rainfall products. The differential phase-based attenuation correction and radar calibration using self-consistency of dual-polarization observables are presented. It is found that the standard deviation of the Z d r bias is less than 0.2 dB based on ‘light rain at low angle’ and ‘dry aggregate snow’ observations. Cross-comparison with two standard S-band China New Generation Weather Radars (CINRAD shows that the bias of Z h has a mean value less than 1.5 dBZ and a standard deviation less than 0.5 dBZ. In addition, fifteen rainfall events that occurred during the intensive observing period (IOP are analyzed to demonstrate the rainfall estimation performance of XPRAD. In particular, rainfall accumulations at 1-, 2- and 3-h scales derived using R( K d p and R( Z h , Z d r relations are evaluated using national level rain gauge data and CINRAD-based rainfall estimation. The results show that both R( K d p - and R( Z h , Z d r -based products agree well with the rain gauge observations and CINRAD estimation. The difference between R ( K d p and R ( Z h , Z d r is not significant, although R ( K d p shows slightly better performance than R ( Z h , Z d r .

  17. Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

    2017-04-01

    This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

  18. Similarity-based multi-model ensemble approach for 1-15-day advance prediction of monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati

    2017-04-01

    The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the development of a new multi-model ensemble approach based on the similarity criterion (SMME) for the prediction of SW monsoon rainfall in the extended range. This approach is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional MME approaches. In this approach, the training dataset has been selected by matching the present day condition to the archived dataset and days with the most similar conditions were identified and used for training the model. The coefficients thus generated were used for the rainfall prediction. The precipitation forecasts from four general circulation models (GCMs), viz. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been used for developing the SMME forecasts. The forecasts of 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days were generated using the newly developed approach for each pentad of June-September during the years 2008-2013 and the skill of the model was analysed using verification scores, viz. equitable skill score (ETS), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson's correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index. Statistical analysis of SMME forecasts shows superior forecast skill compared to the conventional MME and the individual models for all the pentads, viz. 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days.

  19. Decadal variability in snow depth anomaly over Eurasia and its association with all India summer monsoon rainfall and seasonal circulations

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, G P

    2003-01-01

    The Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth (HSDSD) version II data set has been used in the computation of winter and spring snow depth anomalies over west (25 deg. E to 70 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) and east (70 deg. E to 160 deg. E, 35 deg. N to 65 deg. N) Eurasia. It is noticed that winter snow depth anomaly over east Eurasia is positively correlated while west Eurasia is negatively correlated with subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The DJF snow depth anomaly shows highest and inverse correlation coefficient (CC) with ISMR over a large area of west Eurasia in a recent period of study i.e. 1975-1995. On the basis of standardised winter (mean of December, January and February) snow depth anomaly over west Eurasia, the years 1966, 1968, 1979 and 1986 are identified as high snow years and the years 1961 and 1975 as low snow years. The characteristics of seasonal monsoon circulation features have been studied in detail during contrasting years of less (more) snow depth in winter/spring seasons f...

  20. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

    2016-01-01

    .... Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability...

  1. Diurnal-scale signatures of monsoon rainfall over the Indian region from TRMM satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahany, Sandeep; Venugopal, V.; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2010-01-01

    One of the most important modes of summer season precipitation variability over the Indian region, the diurnal cycle, is studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3-hourly, 0.25° × 0.25° 3B42 rainfall product for nine years (1999-2007). Most previous studies have provided an analysis of a single year or a few years of satellite- or station-based rainfall data. Our study aims to systematically analyze the statistical characteristics of the diurnal-scale signature of rainfall over the Indian and surrounding regions. Using harmonic analysis, we extract the signal corresponding to diurnal and subdiurnal variability. Subsequently, the 3-hourly time period or the octet of rainfall peak for this filtered signal, referred to as the "peak octet," is estimated, with care taken to eliminate spurious peaks arising out of Gibbs oscillations. Our analysis suggests that over the Bay of Bengal, there are three distinct modes of the peak octet of diurnal rainfall corresponding to 1130, 1430, and 1730 Indian standard time (IST), from the north central to south bay. This finding could be seen to be consistent with southward propagation of the diurnal rainfall pattern reported by earlier studies. Over the Arabian Sea, there is a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet (1430 IST), in a region where it rains for more than 30% of the time. In the equatorial Indian Ocean, while most of the western part shows a late night/early morning peak, the eastern part does not show a spatially coherent pattern in the mode of the peak octet owing to the occurrence of a dual maxima (early morning and early/late afternoon). The Himalayan foothills were found to have a mode of peak octet corresponding to 0230 IST, whereas over the Burmese mountains and the Western Ghats (west coast of India) the rainfall peaks during late afternoon/early evening (1430-1730 IST). This implies that the phase of the diurnal cycle over inland orography (e.g., Himalayas) is significantly

  2. Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall in Monsoon Region of Pakistan using L-moments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amina Shahzadi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall has immense importance to make decisions about hydraulic structures like spillways, dikes and dams etc The main objective of this study is to get the best fit distributions for annual maximum rainfall data on regional basis in order to estimate the extreme rainfall events (quantiles for various return periods. This study is carried out using index flood method using L-moments by Hosking and wallis (1997. The study is based on 23 sites of rainfall which are divided into three homogeneous regions. The collective results of L-moment ratio diagram, Z-statistic and AWD values show the GLO, GEV and GNO to be best fit for all three regions and in addition PE3 for region 3. On the basis of relative RMSE, for region 1 and region 2, GLO, GEV and GNO are producing approximately the same relative RMSE for return periods upto 100. While GNO is producing less relative RMSE for large return periods of 500 and 1000. So for large return periods GNO could be best distribution. For region 3 GLO, GEV, GNO and PE3 are having approximately the same relative RMSE for return periods upto 100. While for large return periods of 500 and 1000 PE3 could be best on basis of less relative RMSE.

  3. Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

    2017-10-01

    Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.

  4. Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

    2018-01-01

    Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.

  5. Modeling the Influences of Aerosols on Pre-Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D.; Sud, Y. C.; Oreopoulos, L.; Kim, K.-M.; Lau, W. K.; Kang, I.-S.

    2014-01-01

    We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February-May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce

  6. The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM precipitation to long term changes in regional anthropogenic aerosols (sulphate and black carbon is explored in an atmospheric general circulation model, the atmospheric component of the UK High-Resolution Global Environment Model v1.2 (HiGAM. Separately, sulphur dioxide (SO2 and black carbon (BC emissions in 1950 and 2000 over East Asia are used to drive model simulations, while emissions are kept constant at year 2000 level outside this region. The response of the EASM is examined by comparing simulations driven by aerosol emissions representative of 1950 and 2000. The aerosol radiative effects are also determined using an off-line radiative transfer model. During June, July and August, the EASM was not significantly changed as either SO2 or BC emissions increased from 1950 to 2000 levels. However, in September, precipitation is significantly decreased by 26.4% for sulphate aerosol and 14.6% for black carbon when emissions are at the 2000 level. Over 80% of the decrease is attributed to changes in convective precipitation. The cooler land surface temperature over China in September (0.8 °C for sulphate and 0.5 °C for black carbon due to increased aerosols reduces the surface thermal contrast that supports the EASM circulation. However, mechanisms causing the surface temperature decrease in September are different between sulphate and BC experiments. In the sulphate experiment, the sulphate direct and the 1st indirect radiative effects contribute to the surface cooling. In the BC experiment, the BC direct effect is the main driver of the surface cooling, however, a decrease in low cloud cover due to the increased heating by BC absorption partially counteracts the direct effect. This results in a weaker land surface temperature response to BC changes than to sulphate changes. The resulting precipitation response is also weaker, and the responses of the monsoon circulation

  7. Summer monsoon rainfall variability over North East regions of India and its association with Eurasian snow, Atlantic Sea Surface temperature and Arctic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhu, Amita; Oh, Jaiho; Kim, In-won; Kripalani, R. H.; Mitra, A. K.; Pandithurai, G.

    2017-10-01

    This observational study during the 29-year period from 1979 to 2007 evaluates the potential role of Eurasian snow in modulating the North East-Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall with a lead time of almost 6 months. This link is manifested by the changes in high-latitude atmospheric winter snow variability over Eurasia associated with Arctic Oscillation (AO). Excessive wintertime Eurasian snow leads to an anomalous cooling of the overlying atmosphere and is associated with the negative mode of AO, inducing a meridional wave-train descending over the tropical north Atlantic and is associated with cooling of this region. Once the cold anomalies are established over the tropical Atlantic, it persists up to the following summer leading to an anomalous zonal wave-train further inducing a descending branch over NE-India resulting in weak summer monsoon rainfall.

  8. Probabilistic multi-model ensemble prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using general circulation models: A non-parametric approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Nachiketa; Mohanty, Uma Charan; Sahoo, Lokanath

    2013-03-01

    Probabilistic prediction has the ability to convey the intrinsic uncertainty of forecast that helps the decision makers to manage the climate risk more efficiently than deterministic forecasts. In recent times, probabilistic predictions obtained from the products from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have gained considerable attention. The probabilistic forecast can be generated in parametric (assuming Gaussian distribution) as well as non-parametric (counting method) ways. The present study deals with the non-parametric approach that requires no assumption about the form of the forecast distribution for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on the hindcast run of seven general circulation models from 1982 to 2008. Probabilistic prediction from each of the GCM products has been generated by non-parametric methods for tercile categories (viz. below normal (BN), near-normal (NN), and above normal (AN)) and evaluation of their skill is assessed against observed data. Five different types of PMME schemes have been used for combining probabilities from each GCM to improve the forecast skill as compared to the individual GCMs. These schemes are different in nature of assigning the weights for combining probabilities. After a rigorous analysis through Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) and relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the superiority of PMME has been established over climatological probability. It is also found that, the performances of PMME1 and PMME3 are better than all the other methods whereas PMME3 has showed more improvement over PMME1.

  9. Seasonal and short time gravity changes due to monsoonal rainfall in West Africa using a superconducting gravimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hector, Basile; Hinderer, Jacques; Séguis, Luc; Boy, Jean-Paul; Calvo, Marta; Descloitres, Marc; Rosat, Séverine; Riccardi, Umberto

    2013-04-01

    the gravity signature of short term rainfall events. This includes both the rapid increase in gravity following a precipitation, and the slower decrease afterwards, related to evapotranspiration rates and underground water redistribution. In particular we will show the so-called 'shelter effect' which reduces the apparent rain-gravity admittance (in terms of µGal per mm of rain). We will try to derive a general model for our site from the analysis of numerous rain events during the summer monsoon.

  10. Evapotranspiration of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) under the highly seasonal rainfall regime of the Asian monsoon in mainland Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giambelluca, T. W.; Mudd, R. G.; Liu, W.; Kobayashi, N.; Ziegler, A. D.; Miyazawa, Y.; Kumagai, T.; Huang, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Asian Monsoon dominates the climate of the mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) region, characterized by a highly seasonal rainfall regime in which 80-90% of annual rainfall occurs during the 6-month (May-October) wet season. The accompanying extremes in soil moisture, solar radiation, and vapor pressure deficit exert strong controls on ecosystem fluxes, including evapotranspiration (ET). Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), the major commercial crop currently replacing traditional agriculture and secondary forests in MSEA is a native of the equatorial Amazon rainforest, and differs physiologically from the dominant native SE Asian forest tree species. It sheds its leaves in the middle of the dry season and flushes new leaves before the onset of the wet season. In some areas, rubber cultivation is suspected of having caused changes in local climate and watershed processes, including a dramatic downward trend in fog frequency and large increases in surface runoff and soil erosion (Wu et al., 2001, Int. J. Sust. Dev. World Ecol. 8:337-345). Guardiola-Claramonte et al. (2008, Ecohydrology 1:13-22; 2010, Ecohydrology 3:306-314) noted striking differences in the timing and rate of dry season root-water extraction under rubber as compared with other vegetation types. To investigate the environmental impacts of rubber, eddy covariance flux towers were installed to monitor energy, water, and carbon exchange at rubber plantation sites in northeastern Thailand and Cambodia. Results of the first two years of observations at the sites indicate that controls on ET differ between wet and dry seasons, with varying responses to energy, soil moisture, canopy wetness, and leaf area. Despite the long dry season and loss of leaves for several weeks, rubber accumulates exceptionally high annual ET totals, exceeding those of natural forest and other plant functional types in the region. The phenology of rubber represents a disruption of the land-atmosphere interactions of native and other non

  11. Development of an artificial neural network based multi-model ensemble to estimate the northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India: an application of extreme learning machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acharya, Nachiketa; Shrivastava, Nitin Anand; Panigrahi, B. K.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2014-09-01

    The south peninsular part of India gets maximum amount of rainfall during the northeast monsoon (NEM) season [October to November (OND)] which is the primary source of water for the agricultural activities in this region. A nonlinear method viz., Extreme learning machine (ELM) has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products to make the multi-model ensemble (MME) based estimation of NEM rainfall (NEMR). The ELM is basically is an improved learning algorithm for the single feed-forward neural network (SLFN) architecture. The 27 year (1982-2008) lead-1 (using initial conditions of September for forecasting the mean rainfall of OND) hindcast runs (1982-2008) from seven GCM has been used to make MME. The improvement of the proposed method with respect to other regular MME (simple arithmetic mean of GCMs (EM) and singular value decomposition based multiple linear regressions based MME) has been assessed through several skill metrics like Spread distribution, multiplicative bias, prediction errors, the yield of prediction, Pearson's and Kendal's correlation coefficient and Wilmort's index of agreement. The efficiency of ELM estimated rainfall is established by all the stated skill scores. The performance of ELM in extreme NEMR years, out of which 4 years are characterized by deficit rainfall and 5 years are identified as excess, is also examined. It is found that the ELM could expeditiously capture these extremes reasonably well as compared to the other MME approaches.

  12. Distribution of cloudiness and categorization of rainfall types based on INSAT IR brightness temperatures over Indian subcontinent and adjoining oceanic region during south west monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijaykumar, P.; Abhilash, S.; Santhosh, K. R.; Mapes, B. E.; Suvarchal Kumar, C.; Hu, I.-Kuan

    2017-08-01

    To understand the relationship between rain intensity and brightness temperature, Cloud Top Brightness Temperature (CTBT) derived from INSAT three hourly IR radiances having a resolution of 0.25 × 0.25 deg. is compared with corresponding TRMM PR Rain Rate (TPRR) for the Indian Summer Monsoon periods of 2007 and 2008. BT value ranges corresponding to events of various intensities of rain in the four major raining sub regions identified in Indian subcontinent and surrounding ocean are compared. The sub regions identified are (1) Head Bay of Bengal, (2) Central Indian land region, (3) Eastern Arabians Sea and West coast of India and (4) South West Indian Ocean. BT values are grouped into classes of 10°K bin width between 270 and 180°K. Number of occurrence of three classes of rain (light - >4.5 mm, moderate - 4.5-9 mm and heavy 9.0 mm and above cumulative for 3 h) belonging in each BT classes is calculated. It is observed that the three classes of rainfall have distinct characteristic BT ranges. This rain category - BT range relation has geographical (spatial) variability. This could be due to the variation in types of clouds prevalent in the sub regions considered. The present study improves the understanding of the structure and spatial variability of cloudiness and rainfall in and around Indian region during monsoon season.

  13. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-09-15

    We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

  14. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part I: observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, S. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalunya (Spain); Rodo, X. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalunya (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona (Spain); Song, Y. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, B.A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is marked by the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) with preferred 10-20-day and 30-50-day bands. On the basis of pentad Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis Precipitation and daily sea level pressure and winds at 850 hPa derived from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast reanalysis, we present the structure and evolution of the ISOs linked to the ISMR variations over the WG and the BoB and the associated anomalies of the atmospheric circulation using the approaches of wavelet analysis, bandpass filtering and composite analysis. This study reveals that the activities of both the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) contribute strongly to the structure and propagation of the ISOs on intraseasonal time scales. Northward development and propagation of the ITCZ plays a critical role in the northward-propagating ISOs, but not in the westward-propagating BoB 10-20-day ISOs. The latter ISOs may be linked, instead, to the activity of synoptic-scale weather systems to the east over the western tropical Pacific. The enhanced ITCZ in the tropical Indian Ocean plays a strong role in the sudden strengthening of the WPSH during the transition from the break to active phase of the 30-50-day ISOs. We find that the strong WPSH in the Asian summer monsoon season, with generally northward advance and eastward withdrawal, promotes the formation of a northwest to southeast tilted anomalous rainfall belt over the East Asian tropical summer monsoon region and the western tropical Pacific in the 30-50-day low-frequency band. Positive (Negative) elongated rainfall anomalies with an unbroken northwest-southeast tilt, strong easterly (westerly) anomalies in the tropical Pacific, and northward advance and eastward movement of strong (weak) WPSH are favorable for maintaining the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the

  15. Indian Monsoon Depression: Climatology and Variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho; Huang, Wan-Ru (Judy)

    2012-03-09

    The monsoon climate is traditionally characterized by large seasonal rainfall and reversal of wind direction (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Most importantly this rainfall is the major source of fresh water to various human activities such as agriculture. The Indian subcontinent resides at the core of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon system, with the monsoon trough extended from northern India across Indochina to the Western Tropical Pacific (WTP). Large fraction of annual rainfall occurs during the summer monsoon season, i.e., June - August with two distinct maxima. One is located over the Bay of Bengal with rainfall extending northwestward into eastern and central India, and the other along the west coast of India where the lower level moist wind meets the Western Ghat Mountains (Saha and Bavardeckar 1976). The rest of the Indian subcontinent receives relatively less rainfall. Various weather systems such as tropical cyclones and weak disturbances contribute to monsoon rainfall (Ramage 1971). Among these systems, the most efficient rain-producing system is known as the Indian monsoon depression (hereafter MD). This MD is critical for monsoon rainfall because: (i) it occurs about six times during each summer monsoon season, (ii) it propagates deeply into the continent and produces large amounts of rainfall along its track, and (iii) about half of the monsoon rainfall is contributed to by the MDs (e.g., Krishnamurti 1979). Therefore, understanding various properties of the MD is a key towards comprehending the veracity of the Indian summer monsoon and especially its hydrological process.

  16. On breaks of the Indian monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    of rainfall over the monsoon zone. The rainfall criteria are chosen so as to ensure a large over- lap with the traditional breaks documented by Ramamurthy (1969) and De et al (1998). We have identified these rainbreaks for 1901–89. We have also identified active spells on the basis of rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone.

  17. Retrospective seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over West Central and Peninsular India in the past 142 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Wang, Bin; Yang, Young-Min

    2017-04-01

    Prediction of Indian summer (June-September) rainfall on regional scales remains an open issue. The operational predictions of West Central Indian summer rainfall (WCI-R) and Peninsular Indian summer rainfall (PI-R) made by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had no skills during 2004-2012. This motivates the present study aiming at better understanding the predictability sources and physical processes governing summer rainfall variability over these two regions. Analysis of 133 year data reveal that although the lower boundary forcing that associated with enhanced WCI-R and PI-R featured a similar developing La-Nina and "east high west low" sea-level pressure (SLP) dipole pattern across the Indo-Pacific, the anomalous high sea surface temperature (SST) over the northern Indian Ocean and weak low pressure over northern Asia tended to enhance PI-R but reduce WCI-R. Based on our understanding of physical linkages with the predictands, we selected four and two causative predictors for predictions of the WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The intensified summer WCI-R is preceded by (a) Indian Ocean zonal dipole-like SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (b) tropical Pacific zonal dipole SST tendency (west-warming and east-cooling), (c) central Pacific meridional dipole SST tendency (north-cooling and south-warming), and (d) decreasing SLP tendency over northern Asia in the previous season. The enhanced PI-R was lead by the central-eastern Pacific cooling and 2-m temperature cooling tendency east of Lake Balkhash in the previous seasons. These causative processes linking the predictors and WCI-R and PI-R are supported by ensemble numerical experiments using a coupled climate model. For the period of 1871-2012, the physics-based empirical (P-E) prediction models built on these predictors result in cross-validated forecast temporal correlation coefficient skills of 0.55 and 0.47 for WCI-R and PI-R, respectively. The independent forecast skill is significantly

  18. Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Stickler, Alexander; Raible, Christoph C.; Muthers, Stefan; Anet, Julien; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmutz, Werner

    2017-01-01

    The present study is an effort to deepen the understanding of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We use ensemble simulations for the period AD 1600-2000 carried out by the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry-Climate Model (AOCCM) SOCOL-MPIOM. Firstly, the SOCOL-MPIOM is evaluated using observational and reanalyses datasets. The model is able to realistically simulate the ISMR as well as relevant patterns of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. Further, the influence of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on ISMR is realistically simulated. Secondly, we investigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a considerable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR. Resembling observational findings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO. The observational and simulated datasets reveal that on decadal to multi-decadal timescales the ISMR has consistent negative correlation with PDO whereas its correlation with AMO and TSI is not stationary over time.

  19. Decadal to multi-decadal scale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Stickler, Alexander; Raible, Christoph C.; Muthers, Stefan; Anet, Julien; Rozanov, Eugene; Schmutz, Werner

    2017-11-01

    The present study is an effort to deepen the understanding of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We use ensemble simulations for the period AD 1600-2000 carried out by the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry-Climate Model (AOCCM) SOCOL-MPIOM. Firstly, the SOCOL-MPIOM is evaluated using observational and reanalyses datasets. The model is able to realistically simulate the ISMR as well as relevant patterns of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. Further, the influence of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on ISMR is realistically simulated. Secondly, we investigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a considerable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR. Resembling observational findings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO. The observational and simulated datasets reveal that on decadal to multi-decadal timescales the ISMR has consistent negative correlation with PDO whereas its correlation with AMO and TSI is not stationary over time.

  20. Desert Dust and Monsoon Rain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    For centuries, inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent have know that heavy dust events brought on by strong winds occur frequently in the pre-monsoon season, before the onset of heavy rain. Yet scientists have never seriously considered the possibility that natural dust can affect monsoon rainfall. Up to now, most studies of the impacts of aerosols on Indian monsoon rainfall have focused on anthropogenic aerosols in the context of climate change. However, a few recent studies have show that aerosols from antropogenic and natural sources over the Indian subcontinent may affect the transition from break to active monsoon phases on short timescales of days to weeks. Writing in Nature Geoscience, Vinoj and colleagues describe how they have shown that desert dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea and West Asia can strenghten the summer monsoon over the Indial subcontinent in a matter of days.

  1. Potential predictability and actual skill of Boreal Summer Tropical SST and Indian summer monsoon rainfall in CFSv2-T382: Role of initial SST and teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Prasanth A.; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Das, Renu S.; Salunke, Kiran; Dhakate, Ashish

    2017-10-01

    The present study assess the potential predictability of boreal summer (June through September, JJAS) tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using high resolution climate forecast system (CFSv2-T382) hindcasts. Potential predictability is computed using relative entropy (RE), which is the combined effect of signal strength and model spread, while the correlation between ensemble mean and observations represents the actual skill. Both actual and potential skills increase as lead time decreases for Niño3 index and equatorial East Indian Ocean (EEIO) SST anomaly and both the skills are close to each other for May IC hindcasts at zero lead. At the same time the actual skill of ISMR and El Niño Modoki index (EMI) are close to potential skill for Feb IC hindcasts (3 month lead). It is interesting to note that, both actual and potential skills are nearly equal, when RE has maximum contribution to individual year's prediction skill and its relationship with absolute error is insignificant or out of phase. The major contribution to potential predictability is from ensemble mean and the role of ensemble spread is limited for Pacific SST and ISMR hindcasts. RE values are able to capture the predictability contribution from both initial SST and simultaneous boundary forcing better than ensemble mean, resulting in higher potential skill compared to actual skill for all ICs. For Feb IC hindcasts at 3 month lead time, initial month SST (Feb SST) has important predictive component for El Niño Modoki and ISMR leading to higher value of actual skill which is close to potential skill. This study points out that even though the simultaneous relationship between ensemble mean ISMR and global SST is similar for all ICs, the predictive component from initial SST anomalies are captured well by Feb IC (3 month lead) hindcasts only. This resulted in better skill of ISMR for Feb IC (3 month lead) hindcasts compared to May IC (0 month lead

  2. Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-12-20

    The Earth's monsoon systems are the life-blood of more than two-thirds of the world's population through the rainfall they provide to the mainly agrarian societies they influence. More than 60 experts gathered to assess the current understanding of monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems simulating the monsoon.

  3. Long-range forecast of all India summer monsoon rainfall using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system: skill comparison with CFSv2 model simulation and real-time forecast for the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.

    2016-11-01

    All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.

  4. Observational Analysis of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karri, S.; Ahmad, R.; Sujata, P.; Jose, S.; Sreenivas, G.; Maurya, D. K.

    2014-11-01

    The Indian summer monsoon rainfall contributes about 75 % of the total annual rainfall and exhibits considerable interannual variations. The agricultural economy of the country depends mainly on the monsoon rainfall. The long-range forecast of the monsoon rainfall is, therefore of significant importance in agricultural planning and other economic activities of the country. There are various parameters which influence the amount of rainfall received during the monsoon. Some of the important parameters considered by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the study of monsoon are Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), moisture content of the atmosphere, zonal wind speed, low level vorticity, pressure gradient etc. Compared to the Long Period Average (LPA) value of rain fall, the country as a whole received higher amount of rainfall in June, 2013 (34 % more than LPA). The same month showed considerable decrease next year as the amount of rainfall received was around 43 % less compared to LPA. This drastic difference of monsoon prompted to study the behaviour of some of the monsoon relevant parameters. In this study we have considered five atmospheric parameters as the indicators of monsoon behaviour namely vertical relative humidity, OLR, aerosol optical depth (AOD), wind at 850 hPa and mean sea level pressure (MSLP). In the initial analysis of weekly OLR difference for year 2013 and 2014 shows positive values in the month of May over north-western parts of India (region of heat low). This should result in a weaker monsoon in 2014. This is substantiated by the rainfall data received for various stations over India. Inference made based on the analysis of RH profiles coupled with AOD values is in agreement with the rainfall over the corresponding stations.

  5. Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in the year 2009. India as a whole received 77% of its long period average during summer monsoon season (1 June to 30 September) of 2009, which is the third highest deficient all India monsoon season rainfall year during the period 1901–2009. Therefore ...

  6. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and ...

  7. Impact of Climate Change on India's Monsoonal Climate: Present ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios · Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020's, 2050's and 2080's · Likely Future Paradox of Monsoon-ENSO Links · High-Resolution Regional Climate Change Scenarios.

  8. Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥ 125mm) over Orissa during ...

  9. Variable and robust East Asian monsoon rainfall response to El Niño over the past 60 years (1957-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bin; Li, Juan; He, Qiong

    2017-10-01

    Severe flooding occurred in southern and northern China during the summer of 2016 when the 2015 super El Niño decayed to a normal condition. However, the mean precipitation during summer (June-July-August) 2016 does not show significant anomalies, suggesting that—over East Asia (EA)—seasonal mean anomalies have limited value in representing hydrological hazards. Scrutinizing season-evolving precipitation anomalies associated with 16 El Niño episodes during 1957-2016 reveals that, over EA, the spatiotemporal patterns among the four categories of El Niño events are quite variable, due to a large range of variability in the intensity and evolution of El Niño events and remarkable subseasonal migration of the rainfall anomalies. The only robust seasonal signal is the dry anomalies over central North China during the El Niño developing summer. Distinguishing strong and weak El Niño impacts is important. Only strong El Niño events can persistently enhance EA subtropical frontal precipitation from the peak season of El Niño to the ensuing summer, by stimulating intense interaction between the anomalous western Pacific anticyclone (WPAC) and underlying dipolar sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, thereby maintaining the WPAC and leading to a prolonged El Niño impact on EA. A weak El Niño may also enhance the post-El Niño summer rainfall over EA, but through a different physical process: the WPAC re-emerges as a forced response to the rapid cooling in the eastern Pacific. The results suggest that the skillful prediction of rainfall over continental EA requires the accurate prediction of not only the strength and evolution of El Niño, but also the subseasonal migration of EA rainfall anomalies.

  10. Diurnal circulations and their multi-scale interaction leading to rainfall over the South China Sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal monsoon westerly wind bursts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Myung-Sook; Elsberry, Russell L. [Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Meteorology, Monterey, CA (United States); Ho, Chang-Hoi [Seoul National University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jinwon [University of California in Los Angeles, Department of Meteorology, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-10-15

    The morning diurnal precipitation maximum over the coastal sea upstream of the Philippines during intraseasonal westerly wind bursts is examined from observations and numerical model simulations. A well-defined case of precipitation and large-scale circulation over the coastal sea west of the Philippines during 17-27 June 2004 is selected as a representative case. The hypothesis is that the mesoscale diurnal circulation over the Philippines and a large-scale diurnal circulation that is induced by large-scale differential heating over Asian continent and the surrounding ocean interact to produce the offshore precipitation maximum during the morning. Three-hourly combined satellite microwave and infrared rainfall retrievals define the morning rainfall peak during this period, and then later the stratiform rain area extends toward the open sea. A control numerical simulation in which a grid-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) is applied to force the large-scale diurnal circulation represents reasonably well the morning rainfall maximum. An enhanced low-level convergence similar to observations is simulated due to the interaction of the local- and large-scale diurnal circulations. The essential role of the local-scale diurnal circulation is illustrated in a sensitivity test in which the solar zenith angle is fixed at 7 am to suppress this diurnal circulation. The implication for climate diagnosis or modeling of such upstream coastal sea precipitation maxima is that the diurnal variations of both the local- and the large-scale circulations must be taken into consideration. (orig.)

  11. A new criterion for identifying breaks in monsoon conditions over the Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Dessai, U.R.P.

    The presence or absence of prolonged breaks over the Indian subcontinent during the mid monsoon months of July and August decides the fate of the monsoon rainfall. Using a new criterion for identifying the breaks, we have catalogued them...

  12. Onset, active and break periods of the Australian monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaik, Hakeem A [Northern Territory Regional Office, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, PO Box 40050, NT Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Casuarina NT 0811, Darwin (Australia); Cleland, Samuel J, E-mail: h.shaik@bom.gov.a [Bureau of Meteorology, Cape Grim BAPS, Smithton Tasmania TAS 7300 (Australia)

    2010-08-15

    Four operational techniques of monsoon monitoring the Australian monsoon at Darwin have been developed in the Darwin Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre. Two techniques used the rainfall only criteria and look into the onset of wet season rainfall/monsoon rainfall. The other two techniques are based purely on Darwin wind data. The data used for the study ranges from 14 to 21 years. The main purpose of the study is to develop near-real time monitoring tools for the Australian monsoon at Darwin. The average date of onset of the monsoon ranges from 19 December to 30 December. The average date of monsoon onset is 28 December. In eleven out of twenty-one years the onset date remained within three days range between the two rainfall techniques, whereas it is eleven out of fourteen years between the wind techniques. The median number of active monsoon spells in a wet season is 3 for the rainfall techniques and 6 for the wind techniques. The average length of each active monsoon spell is around 4 days for all of the techniques. The date of onset of the monsoon has shown negative correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) that is late onset is found to occur in El Nino years while early onset is more likely in La Nina years.

  13. Influence of orographically enhanced SW monsoon flux on coastal processes along the SE Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S.; Raghavan, B.R.; Singh, K.; Rajawat, A.S.; Ajai; Kader, U.S.A.; Nayak, S.

    The Arabian Sea has an excess evaporation over precipitation regime. The southeast Arabian Sea is, however, anomalous because it has ~2800–4800 mm rainfall during the southwest monsoon (SWM). Despite a high rainfall, the fluvial influence on supply...

  14. Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which ...

  15. Evaporation over the Arabian Sea during two contrasting monsoons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sadhuram, Y.

    monsoon rainfall. It is noticed that in general, the sea surface temperatures are higher in 1983 throughout the monsoon season than in 1979 in the Arabian Sea excepting western region. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale are found to be equal...

  16. Summer monsoon onset over Kerala: New definition and prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Statistical prediction; Indian summer monsoon; monsoon onset over Kerala; principal component analysis; multiple linear regression. ... In this study,a new method for the objective identification of MOK,based on large scale circulation features and rainfall over Kerala,is discussed.Further,a set of empirical models ...

  17. The use of fractional accumulated precipitation for the evaluation of the annual cycle of monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, Kenneth R.; Annamalai, H.

    2014-12-01

    Using pentad rainfall data we demonstrate the benefits of using accumulated rainfall and fractional accumulated rainfall for the evaluation of the annual cycle of rainfall over various monsoon domains. Our approach circumvents issues related to using threshold-based analysis techniques for investigating the life-cycle of monsoon rainfall. In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 models we find systematic errors in the phase of the annual cycle of rainfall. The models are delayed in the onset of summer rainfall over India, the Gulf of Guinea, and the South American Monsoon, with early onset prevalent for the Sahel and the North American Monsoon. This, in combination with the rapid fractional accumulation rate, impacts the ability of the models to simulate the fractional accumulation observed during summer. The rapid fractional accumulation rate and the time at which the accumulation begins are metrics that indicate how well the models concentrate the monsoon rainfall over the peak rainfall season, and the extent to which there is a phase error in the annual cycle. The lack of consistency in the phase error across all domains suggests that a "global" approach to the study of monsoons may not be sufficient to rectify the regional differences. Rather, regional process studies are necessary for diagnosing the underlying causes of the regionally-specific systematic model biases over the different monsoon domains. Despite the afore-mentioned biases, most models simulate well the interannual variability in the date of monsoon onset, the exceptions being models with the most pronounced dry biases. Two methods for estimating monsoon duration are presented, one of which includes nonlinear aspects of the fractional accumulation. The summer fractional accumulation of rainfall provides an objective way to estimate the extent of the monsoon domain, even in models with substantial dry biases for which monsoon is not defined using threshold-based techniques.

  18. Foraminifera and changing pattern of monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.

    The palaeomonsoonal history can be reconstructed utilizing climatically sensitive properties of marine microorganisms; foraminifera. The results show a major boundary at 3500 years B.P. and periods of rather low precipitation approximately at 420...

  19. Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993–2013. The average seasonalgenesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the ...

  20. The First Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K R; Yasunari, T

    2005-07-27

    In 2004 the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) that provides scientific guidance to the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) requested an assessment of (1) WCRP monsoon related activities and (2) the range of available observations and analyses in monsoon regions. The purpose of the assessment was to (a) define the essential elements of a pan-WCRP monsoon modeling strategy, (b) identify the procedures for producing this strategy, and (c) promote improvements in monsoon observations and analyses with a view toward their adequacy, and addressing any undue redundancy or duplication. As such, the WCRP sponsored the ''1st Pan-WCRP Workshop on Monsoon Climate Systems: Toward Better Prediction of the Monsoons'' at the University of California, Irvine, CA, USA from 15-17 June 2005. Experts from the two WCRP programs directly relevant to monsoon studies, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR) and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), gathered to assess the current understanding of the fundamental physical processes governing monsoon variability and to highlight outstanding problems in simulating the monsoon that can be tackled through enhanced cooperation between CLIVAR and GEWEX. The agenda with links to the presentations can be found at: http://www.clivar.org/organization/aamon/WCRPmonsoonWS/agenda.htm. Scientific motivation for a joint CLIVAR-GEWEX approach to investigating monsoons includes the potential for improved medium-range to seasonal prediction through better simulation of intraseasonal (30-60 day) oscillations (ISO's). ISO's are important for the onset of monsoons, as well as the development of active and break periods of rainfall during the monsoon season. Foreknowledge of the active and break phases of the monsoon is important for crop selection, the determination of planting times and mitigation of potential flooding and short-term drought. With a few exceptions simulations of ISO are

  1. Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfallof 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to ...

  2. Deep learning for predicting the monsoon over the homogeneous ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Indian monsoon varies in its nature over the geographical regions. Predicting the rainfall not just at the national level, but at the regional level is an important task. In this article, we used a deep neural network, namely, the stacked autoencoder to automatically identify climatic factors that are capable of predicting the rainfall ...

  3. On the role of convective systems over the northwest Pacific and monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Babu, A.K.; Reason, C.

    been examined in relation to breaks in monsoon conditions over the Indian sub-continent during contrasting monsoon years. A see-saw nature of convection between the NWP and north Indian Ocean was found during the years with excess monsoon rainfall...

  4. The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2008-01-01

    Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

  5. A reconstructed dynamic Indian monsoon index extended back to 1880

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Brönnimann, Stefan; Griesser, Thomas; Fischer, Andreas M.; Zou, Liwei

    2010-03-01

    The authors present a reconstruction of summer (June-July-August) mean dynamic Indian monsoon index (DIMI) back to 1880 based on a large number of historical surface observation data as well as information from the upper air data. The reconstruction shows a satisfying skill in terms of both the value of reduction of error and an evaluation against other independent monsoon indices. The skill of reconstruction increases over time with more predictor data (in particular upper-level data) becoming available. A comparison with the observed all Indian summer monsoon rainfall index (AIRI) shows a high consistence in both inter-decadal and inter-annual variability. The reconstruction shows stronger than normal monsoon during the 1880s, 1915-1925 (around 1920) and 1930-1945 (around 1940) as the AIRI. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—monsoon relationship is reasonably captured in the reconstruction. Powers concentrating within quasi-biennial band stand out in the reconstruction as well as in the AIRI. A comparison of the reconstruction against an atmospheric general circulation model simulation with specified SST and external forcing agents spanning 1901-1999 indicates a slightly higher reproducibility of monsoon circulation than monsoon rainfall in terms of interannual variability. The relationship between the Asian continent warming and the ENSO-monsoon connection is also discussed by using the new dynamic index.

  6. Monsoons, history of

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Niitsuma, N.; Naidu, P.D.

    in the equatorial Pacific. The chronological sequence of monsoonal events, and the strength of trade winds and equatorial upwelling suggests that the Asian monsoons were an important control on global climate and oceanic productivity...

  7. Assessing climatic trends of extreme rainfall indices over northeast Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basher, Md. Abul; Stiller-Reeve, Mathew Alexander; Saiful Islam, A. K. M.; Bremer, Scott

    2017-10-01

    This study analyzes the trends of extreme rainfall indices over northeast Bangladesh for the period of 1984 to 2016 for the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The research was framed as part of a project co-producing knowledge of climate variability and impacts through collaboration between scientific and local communities in northeast Bangladesh, which found pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall to be most important. With access to a greater number of rainfall stations than previous work in northeast Bangladesh, we investigated trends in extreme rainfall events using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. To appraise the quality of the data, we used the Standard Normal Homogeneity and the Pettitt tests to check its homogeneity. Among the seven stations, only Sunamganj was found inhomogeneous, and was not considered for trend analysis. All indices of rainfall extremes showed a decreasing trend in both seasons, with the most significant decrease during the monsoon. Importantly, we saw a decreasing trend in the seasonal total rainfall and consecutive wet days, whereas there was an increasing trend in consecutive dry days. Moreover, we saw a decreasing trend in 1-day maximum rainfall, 5-day maximum rainfall, the intensity of the daily rainfall over 25 mm during the pre-monsoon and 50 mm during monsoon, which together may indicate a future decrease in the magnitude and intensity of flash floods and monsoon floods. If this trend continues, the northeast Bangladesh may suffer from water stress, which could affect the lives and livelihoods of communities living there.

  8. Factors controlling January–April rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vialard, J.; Terray, P.; Duvel, J.-P.; Nanjundiah, R.S.; Shenoi, S.S.C.; Shankar, D.

    ) and northeast (October to December) monsoons. These two monsoons have a great influence over the livelihoods of over one billion people living in India and Sri Lanka. There is, for example, a clear link between the monsoon rainfall and rice production in India...

  9. The Influence of Solar Activity on the Rainfall over India: Cycle-to ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    economy is agriculture which depends mainly upon the monsoon rainfall. For the last successive years, the Indian subcontinent witnessed the miserable failure of southwest monsoon that led to severe droughts. Causes for the abnormal activities of the rainfall over India such as occurrence of floods and droughts is not yet ...

  10. Activation of Sahelian monsoon under future warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall variability in the Sahel has been affecting the lives of millions through devastating droughts, such as in the 1970s and 80s, but also destructive rain and flood events. Future climate change is likely to alter rainfall patterns, but model projections for the central Sahel diverge significantly, with climate models simulating anything between a slight drying and a substantial wetting trend. Here we analyze 30 coupled global climate model simulations from the CMIP5 archive. We identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40% to 300% over the 21st century, under the RCP8.5 concentration pathway. The same models also outperform the rest of the ensemble in reproducing the magnitude of the 1970s/80s drought. The magnitude and seasonality of the projected future rainfall change, together with a concurrent increase in near-surface wind speed, indicate a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. We further find that Sahel rainfall does not increase linearly with rising global temperatures; it is insensitive to moderate warming but then abruptly intensifies beyond a certain temperature. This non-linearity is even more pronounced when instead of global warming, sea surface temperature change in the tropical Atlantic moisture source region is considered. We propose an explanation for this behavior based on a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, and suggest that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under climate change can trigger the sudden activation of a continental monsoon in the Sahel region, which reaches further inland than the present-day, predominantly coastal West African monsoon. Such an abrupt regime change in response to gradual forcing would be consistent with paleoclimatic records from the Sahel region. More detailed comparison between the model simulations that exhibit this sudden rainfall increase under future warming and those that do not may help to verify this hypothesis.

  11. Local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Vasubandhu; Bhardwaj, Amit; Mishra, Akhilesh

    2017-10-01

    This paper introduces an objective definition of local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) at the native grid of the Indian Meteorological Department's rainfall analysis based on more than 100 years of rain gauge observations. The variability of the local onset/demise of the ISM is shown to be closely associated with the All India averaged rainfall onset/demise. This association is consistent with the corresponding evolution of the slow large-scale reversals of upper air and ocean variables that raise the hope of predictability of local onset and demise of the ISM. The local onset/demise of the ISM also show robust internannual variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole mode. It is also shown that the early monsoon rains over northeast India has a predictive potential for the following seasonal anomalies of rainfall and seasonal length of the monsoon over rest of India.

  12. Dirtier Air from a Weaker Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Mian

    2012-01-01

    The level of air pollution in China has much increased in the past decades, causing serious health problems. Among the main pollutants are aerosols, also known as particulate matter: tiny, invisible particles that are suspended in the air. These particles contribute substantially to premature mortality associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and lung cancer1. The increase of the aerosol level in China has been commonly attributed to the fast rise in pollutant emissions from the rapid economic development in the region. However, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, Jianlei Zhu and colleagues2 tell a different side of the story: using a chemical transport model and observation data, they show that the decadal scale weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon has also contributed to the increase of aerosol concentrations in China. The life cycle of atmospheric aerosols starts with its emission or formation in the atmosphere. Some aerosol components such as dust, soot and sea salt are emitted directly as particles to the atmosphere, but others are formed there by way of photochemical reactions. For example, sulphate and nitrate aerosols are produced from their respective precursor gases, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Aerosol particles can be transported away from their source locations by winds or vertical motion of the air. Eventually, they are removed from the atmosphere by means of dry deposition and wet scavenging by precipitation. Measurements generally show that aerosol concentrations over Asia are lowest during the summer monsoon season3, because intense rainfall efficiently removes them from the air. The East Asian summer monsoon extends over subtropics and mid-latitudes. Its rainfall tends to concentrate in rain belts that stretch out for many thousands of kilometres and affect China, Korea, Japan and the surrounding area. Observations suggest that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation have been in decline since the 1970s4. In

  13. Historical trend of hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

    2015-04-01

    Hourly rainfall data between the years 1975 and 2010 across the Peninsular Malaysia were analyzed for trends in hourly extreme rainfall events. The analyses were conducted on rainfall occurrences during the northeast monsoon (November-February) known as NEM, the southwest monsoon (May-August) known as SWM, and the two inter-monsoon seasons, i.e., March-April (MA) and September-October (SO). Several extreme rainfall indices were calculated at the station level. The extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia showed an increasing trend between the years 1975 and 2010. The trend analysis was conducted using linear regression; no serial correlation was detected from the Durbin-Watson test. Ordinary kriging was used to determine the spatial patterns of trends in seasonal extremes. The total amount of rainfall received during NEM is higher compared to rainfall received during inter-monsoon seasons. However, intense rainfall is observed during the inter-monsoon season with higher hourly total amount of rainfall. The eastern part of peninsular was most affected by stratiform rains, while convective rain contributes more precipitation to areas in the western part of the peninsular. From the distribution of spatial pattern of trend, the extreme frequency index (Freq >20) gives significant contribution to the positive extreme rainfall trend during the monsoon seasons. Meanwhile, both extreme frequency and extreme intensity (24-Hr Max, Freq >95th, Tot >95th, Tot >99th, and Hr Max) indices give significant contribution to the positive extreme rainfall trend during the inter-monsoon seasons. Most of the significant extreme indices showed the positive sign of trends. However, a negative trend of extreme rainfall was found in the northwest coast due to the existence of Titiwangsa Range. The extreme intensity, extreme frequency, and extreme cumulative indices showed increasing trends during the NEM and MA while extreme intensity and extreme frequency had similar trends during

  14. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall in the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeban Panthi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Landslides, floods, and droughts are recurring natural disasters in Nepal related to too much or too little water. The summer monsoon contributes more than 80% of annual rainfall, and rainfall spatial and inter-annual variation is very high. The Gandaki River, one of the three major rivers of Nepal and one of the major tributaries of the Ganges River, covers all agro-ecological zones in the central part of Nepal. Time series tests were applied for different agro-ecological zones of the Gandaki River Basin (GRB for rainfall trends of four seasons (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter from 1981 to 2012. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods were used to determine the trends. Decadal anomalies relative to the long-term average were analyzed using the APHRODITE precipitation product. Trends in number of rainy days and timing of the monsoon were also analyzed. We found that the post-monsoon, pre-monsoon and winter rainfalls are decreasing significantly in most of the zones but monsoon rainfall is increasing throughout the basin. In the hill region, the annual rainfall is increasing but the rainy days do not show any trend. There is a tendency toward later departure of monsoon from Nepal, indicating an increase in its duration. These seasonally and topographically variable trends may have significant impacts for the agriculture and livestock smallholders that form the majority of the population in the GRB.

  15. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.

    2012-12-01

    The response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation over the Holocene is recorded in many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate reconstructions. The response is commonly direct; more summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using a maritime stalagmite record from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the stalagmite δ18O record from Palawan, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in stalagmite δ18O is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene. Our explanation for the Holocene trend observed at Palawan is that the increase in the maritime monsoon balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an explanation that is consistent with previously published coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model results. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. However, the decrease in maritime monsoon rainfall during the Younger Dryas at Palawan matches that observed in Chinese stalagmite records, meeting our original expectation of a similar wet season response in the various Asian-Australian monsoon records. One explanation for the similar Younger Dryas response in these monsoon records is the influence of seasonal changes in sea ice coverage, as previously suggested. A stalagmite δ18O record from Borneo (~800 km SE of Palawan), which lacks evidence of the Younger Dryas, provides supporting evidence for this explanation.

  16. Air Sea Interaction Over the Indian Ocean During the Contrasting Monsoon Years 2002 and 2003

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sankar, S.; Fennig, K.; Pai, S.; Schulz, J.

    The air sea interaction processes over the Indian Ocean are studied using the satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite for two contrasting monsoon years, namely 2002 (deficit) and 2003 (normal). The moisture transport...

  17. Variability of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India) of the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Monsoon onset over Kerala (India) which occurs every year is a major climatic phenomenon that involves large scale changes in wind, rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Over the last 150 years, the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (DMOK) has varied widely, the earliest being 11 May, 1918 and the most ...

  18. Differences and links between the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon systems: Characteristics and Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ronghui; Liu, Yong; Du, Zhencai; Chen, Jilong; Huangfu, Jingliang

    2017-10-01

    This paper analyzes the differences in the characteristics and spatio-temporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) systems. The results show obvious differences in summertime rainfall characteristics between these two monsoon systems. The summertime rainfall cloud systems of the EASM show a mixed stratiform and cumulus cloud system, while cumulus cloud dominates the SASM. These differences may be caused by differences in the vertical shear of zonal and meridional circulations and the convergence of water vapor transport fluxes. Moreover, the leading modes of the two systems' summertime rainfall anomalies also differ in terms of their spatiotemporal features on the interannual and interdecadal timescales. Nevertheless, several close links with respect to the spatiotemporal variabilities of summertime rainfall and water vapor transport exist between the two monsoon systems. The first modes of summertime rainfall in the SASM and EASM regions reveal a significant negative correlation on the interannual and the interdecadal timescales. This close relationship may be linked by a meridional teleconnection in the regressed summertime rainfall anomalies from India to North China through the southeastern part over the Tibetan Plateau, which we refer to as the South Asia/East Asia teleconnection pattern of Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The authors wish to dedicate this paper to Prof. Duzheng YE, and commemorate his 100th anniversary and his great contributions to the development of atmospheric dynamics.

  19. A diagnostic study of monsoon energetics for two contrasting years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Brahmananda Rao, V.; Sravani, A.; Vijaya Saradhi, N.; Harikishan, G.

    2010-12-01

    In the present study we made an attempt to explain the behavior of the southwest monsoon for two contrasting years, from the view point of energetics. As a test case we selected 2002 and 2003, which were weak and strong monsoon years, respectively, based on rainfall. The energy terms Kψ, Kχ and APE and the conversion terms f∇ψ. ∇χ, -ω'T' are calculated at 850 hPa level and also vertically integrated from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa. The results indicate that, the year of high energy (both KΨ, Kχ) i.e. 2002, does not give a good amount of rainfall compared to the good year i.e. 2003. The break period during the year 2002 has been clearly explained using the block diagrams. Periods of highest rainfall coincide with the positive conversions of f∇ψ. ∇χ and -ω'T'. Vertically integrated moisture fluxes during the break period of 2002, 2003 are also analyzed. The main reservoirs (sources and sinks) for the monsoon energy are also identified using block diagrams. Negative correlation between daily rainfall and energy terms in the year 2002 indicates its unusual behavior both in terms of energetics as well as precipitation. Positive correlations in the year 2003 represent strong monsoonal behavior. We calculated the climatology of the total kinetic energy at 850 hPa, vertically integrated (1000-100 hPa) for 30 years (1980-2009) and rainfall for 103 years (1901-2003) which clearly indicates that the monsoon is indeed a season of high energy for the South Asian region. Also the east- west direct thermal circulations are strongly related to the good and bad monsoon years.

  20. A diagnostic study of monsoon energetics for two contrasting years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present study we made an attempt to explain the behavior of the southwest monsoon for two contrasting years, from the view point of energetics. As a test case we selected 2002 and 2003, which were weak and strong monsoon years, respectively, based on rainfall. The energy terms Kψ, Kχ and APE and the conversion terms f∇ψ. ∇χ, −ω'T' are calculated at 850 hPa level and also vertically integrated from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa. The results indicate that, the year of high energy (both KΨ, Kχ i.e. 2002, does not give a good amount of rainfall compared to the good year i.e. 2003. The break period during the year 2002 has been clearly explained using the block diagrams. Periods of highest rainfall coincide with the positive conversions of f∇ψ. ∇χ and −ω'T'. Vertically integrated moisture fluxes during the break period of 2002, 2003 are also analyzed. The main reservoirs (sources and sinks for the monsoon energy are also identified using block diagrams. Negative correlation between daily rainfall and energy terms in the year 2002 indicates its unusual behavior both in terms of energetics as well as precipitation. Positive correlations in the year 2003 represent strong monsoonal behavior. We calculated the climatology of the total kinetic energy at 850 hPa, vertically integrated (1000–100 hPa for 30 years (1980–2009 and rainfall for 103 years (1901–2003 which clearly indicates that the monsoon is indeed a season of high energy for the South Asian region. Also the east- west direct thermal circulations are strongly related to the good and bad monsoon years.

  1. Measuring the monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Nair, R.R.

    Monsoons are familiar elements of tropical life, bringing rain to the crops that feed millions. The effects do not stop there, in the Arabian Sea, the twice-yearly monsoon winds enrich the fishing grounds, as well as setting up currents...

  2. The Indian Monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    aim of monsoon meteorology is to predict these variations. Understanding the basic ..... hemisphere. Monsoon – A Gigantic Land-Sea Breeze? Over three hundred years ago, in 1686, Edmund Halley (better known for the comet named after him) published a paper entitled .... around 20 S in the southern summer. The varia-.

  3. The Indian Monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 12; Issue 5. The Indian Monsoon - Physics of the Monsoon. Sulochana Gadgil. Series Article Volume 12 Issue 5 May 2007 pp 4-20. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/012/05/0004-0020 ...

  4. Variability and teleconnections of South and East Asian summer monsoons in present and future projections of CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preethi, Bhaskar; Mujumdar, Milind; Prabhu, Amita; Kripalani, Ramesh

    2017-05-01

    Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model outputs of the South and East Asian summer monsoon variability and their tele-connections are investigated using historical simulations (1861-2005) and future projections under the RCP4.5 scenario (2006-2100). Detailed analyses are performed using nine models having better representation of the recent monsoon teleconnections for the interactive Asian monsoon sub-systems. However, these models underestimate rainfall mainly over South Asia and Korea-Japan sector, the regions of heavy rainfall, along with a bias in location of rainfall maxima. Indeed, the simulation biases, underestimations of monsoon variability and teleconnections suggest further improvements for better representation of Asian monsoon in the climate models. Interestingly, the performance of Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1.0 (ACCESS1.0) in simulating the annual cycle, spatial pattern of rainfall and multi-decadal variations of summer monsoon rainfall over South and East Asia appears to more realistic. In spite of large spread among the CMIP5 models, historical simulations as well as future projections of summer monsoon rainfall indicate multi-decadal variability. These rainfall variations, displaying certain epochs of more rainfall over South Asia than over East Asia and vice versa, suggest an oscillatory behaviour. Teleconnections between South and East Asian monsoon rainfall also exhibit a multi-decadal variation with alternate epochs of strengthening and weakening relationship. Furthermore, large-scale circulation features such as South Asian monsoon trough and north Pacific subtropical high depict zonal oscillatory behaviour with east-west-east shifts. Periods with eastward or westward extension of the Mascarene High, intensification and expansion of the upper tropospheric South Asian High are also projected by the CMIP5 models.

  5. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    Krishnamurthi T N 1985 Summer monsoon experiment – a review; Mon. Weather Rev. 113 1590–1626. Lin Y L, Chao Sen, Wang Ting An, Kaplan L M and. Weglarz R P 2001 Some common ingredients for heavy orograhic rainfall; Weather and forecasting 16 633–. 660. Pico R 1974 The Geography of Puerto Rico (Chicago:.

  6. Multi-model ensemble schemes for predicting northeast monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Doraiswamy I V 1946 Forecasting the northeast monsoon rainfall of south Madras; Scientific Note No. 98, India. Meteorological Department, pp. 147–154. Fekedulegn B D, Colbert J J, Hicks R R Jr and Schuckers. M 2002 Coping with multicollinearity: An example on application of principal components regression in dendro-.

  7. Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The JMA hindcast climatology during JJAS simulates the rainfall maxima over the west-coast of India and the head Bay of Bengal reasonably well, although, the latter is slightly shifted southwestward. Associated with better forecast skills of El Nino in the JMA model, the interannual variability of All India Summer Monsoon ...

  8. Deep learning for predicting the monsoon over the homogeneous ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Moumita Saha

    2017-06-12

    Jun 12, 2017 ... Indian monsoon varies in its nature over the geographical regions. Predicting the rainfall not just at the national level, but at the regional level is an important task. In this article, we used a deep neural network, namely, the stacked autoencoder to automatically identify climatic factors that are capable.

  9. Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascale, Salvatore; Boos, William R.; Bordoni, Simona; Delworth, Thomas L.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Future changes in the North American monsoon, a circulation system that brings abundant summer rains to vast areas of the North American Southwest, could have significant consequences for regional water resources. How this monsoon will change with increasing greenhouse gases, however, remains unclear, not least because coarse horizontal resolution and systematic sea-surface temperature biases limit the reliability of its numerical model simulations. Here we investigate the monsoon response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations using a 50-km-resolution global climate model which features a realistic representation of the monsoon climatology and its synoptic-scale variability. It is found that the monsoon response to CO2 doubling is sensitive to sea-surface temperature biases. When minimizing these biases, the model projects a robust reduction in monsoonal precipitation over the southwestern United States, contrasting with previous multi-model assessments. Most of this precipitation decline can be attributed to increased atmospheric stability, and hence weakened convection, caused by uniform sea-surface warming. These results suggest improved adaptation measures, particularly water resource planning, will be required to cope with projected reductions in monsoon rainfall in the American Southwest.

  10. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  11. Early forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon: case study 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surovyatkina, Elena; Stolbova, Veronika; Kurths, Jurgen

    2017-04-01

    The prior knowledge of dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon is of vital importance for the population of the Indian subcontinent. In May 2016 before monsoon season, India recorded its highest-ever temperature of 51C. Hot waves have decimated crops, killed livestock and left 330 million people without enough water. At the end of monsoon season the floods in Indian this year have also broken previous records. Severe and devastating rainfall poured down, triggering dams spilling and floods. Such extreme conditions pose the vital questions such as: When will the monsoon come? When will the monsoon withdraw? More lead time in monsoon forecast warning is crucial for taking appropriate decisions at various levels - from the farmer's field (e.g. plowing day, seeding) to the central government (e.g. managing water and energy resources, food procurement policies). The Indian Meteorological Department issues forecasts of onset of monsoon for Kerala state in South India on May 15-th. It does not give such predictions for the other 28 states of the country. Our study concerns the central part of India. We made the monsoon forecast using our recently developed method which focuses on Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon [1]. Our prediction relies on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. We performed both of our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon for the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E). We predicted the monsoon arrival to the Eastern Ghats (20N,80E) on the 13th of June with a deviation of +/-4 days. The prediction was made on May 6-th, 2016 [2], that is 40 days in advance of the date of the forecast. The actual monsoon arrival was June 17-th. In this day near-surface air temperature and relative humidity overcame the critical values and the monsoon season started, that was confirmed by observations of meteorological stations located around the EG-region. We

  12. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2017-03-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  13. Diagnosing Australia-Asian monsoon onset/retreat using large-scale wind and moisture indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Huqiang [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, A partnership between Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2010-09-15

    Using large-scale variables, in this study we have developed a method for defining monsoon onset/retreat in the Australia-Asian region and used this method to study monsoon activities simulated by global climate models. For this purpose, the method needs to capture fundamental characteristics of monsoon rainfall and circulation seasonal variations and at the same time it can be reasonably simulated by current climate models. We develop the method by using both atmospheric precipitable water and wind conditions in our definition and compared our results using 44-year ERA-40 reanalysis data with some published results in the region. Our results offer similar features to several observational studies, including features in Australia-Asian summer monsoon temporal and spatial evolutions and their interannual variations. Results further show that the observed significant increase in summer rainfall in northwest Australia corresponds to earlier onset and much longer duration of its summer monsoon, with its duration significantly increased. Prolonged summer monsoon duration is also seen in central-east China where upward rainfall trend is observed. Furthermore, the Australian summer monsoon appears to be more affected by ENSO than the Asian monsoon, with delayed onsets and shortened durations during El Nino years. Finally, by analyzing results from an IPCC AR4 model, we have shown that using the two large-scale variables simulated by climate models, it is possible to conduct some detailed studies on monsoon activities in current and future climate. Results from this particular model suggest that global warming could potentially modify some of the monsoon characteristics, including earlier onset in most of the region but different features for changes in duration. In the Australian region, it also displays further southward penetration of its summer monsoon. (orig.)

  14. Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

  15. Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-09-01

    Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

  16. The relationship between the Guinea Highlands and the West African offshore rainfall maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, H. L.; Young, G. S.; Evans, J. L.; Fuentes, J. D.; Núñez Ocasio, K. M.

    2017-01-01

    Satellite rainfall estimates reveal a consistent rainfall maximum off the West African coast during the monsoon season. An analysis of 16 years of rainfall in the monsoon season is conducted to explore the drivers of such copious amounts of rainfall. Composites of daily rainfall and midlevel meridional winds centered on the days with maximum rainfall show that the day with the heaviest rainfall follows the strongest midlevel northerlies but coincides with peak low-level moisture convergence. Rain type composites show that convective rain dominates the study region. The dominant contribution to the offshore rainfall maximum is convective development driven by the enhancement of upslope winds near the Guinea Highlands. The enhancement in the upslope flow is closely related to African easterly waves propagating off the continent that generate low-level cyclonic vorticity and convergence. Numerical simulations reproduce the observed rainfall maximum and indicate that it weakens if the African topography is reduced.

  17. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  18. Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Levermann, Anders

    2017-07-01

    Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.

  19. Relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Renguang

    2017-01-01

    The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons are two components of the whole Asian summer monsoon system. Previous studies have indicated in-phase and out-of-phase variations between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall. The present study reviews the current understanding of the connection between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall. The review covers the relationship of northern China, southern Japan, and South Korean summer rainfall with Indian summer rainfall; the atmospheric circulation anomalies connecting Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations; the long-term change in the connection between Indian and northern China rainfall and the plausible reasons for the change; and the influence of ENSO on the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall and its change. While much progress has been made about the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall variations, there are several remaining issues that need investigation. These include the processes involved in the connection between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall, the non-stationarity of the connection and the plausible reasons, the influences of ENSO on the relationship, the performance of climate models in simulating the relationship between Indian and East Asian summer rainfall, and the relationship between Indian and East Asian rainfall intraseasonal fluctuations.

  20. Positive response of Indian summer rainfall to Middle East dust

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Qinjian

    2014-06-02

    Using observational and reanalyses data, we investigated the impact of dust aerosols over the Middle East and the Arabian Sea (AS) on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Satellite and aerosol reanalysis data show extremely heavy aerosol loading, mainly mineral dust, over the Middle East and AS during the ISM season. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analyses suggest an aerosol-monsoon connection. This connection may be attributed to dust-induced atmospheric heating centered over the Iranian Plateau (IP), which enhances the meridional thermal contrast and strengthens the ISM circulation and rainfall. The enhanced circulation further transports more dust to the AS and IP, heating the atmosphere (positive feedback). The aerosols over the AS and the Arabian Peninsula have a significant correlation with rainfall over central and eastern India about 2 weeks later. This finding highlights the nonlocal radiative effect of dust on the ISM circulation and rainfall and may improve ISM rainfall forecasts. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  1. Holocene Greenhouse Gases And Asian Monsoon Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Wu, H.; Guo, Z.

    2008-12-01

    Atmospheric methane concentration gradually decreased during the first half of the Holocene and then reversed the trend since ~5,000 years ago. This has been variously attributed to natural or/and anthropogenic factors. The development of early rice farming in the world was roughly consistent in time with the methane reverse while the extent of irrigated lands and the amount of methane emission remain to be determined. It was also proposed that the late Holocene increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases would have offset part of the cooling trend due to decreased northern insolation and may have prevented the onset of the early stage of a new glaciation, as is supported by some climate model experiments. If this cooling occurred, it would have been equally catastrophic to the development of human civilization. As one of the tests to this hypothesis, we synthesized climate data from the Asian monsoon zone to examine the Holocene trends of monsoon precipitation and temperature changes: if the late Holocene changes of greenhouse gases had significant climate effects, we would expect a relatively stable temperature associated with a declined trend of monsoon rainfall in response to the insolation changes. The results effectively showed divergent trends of precipitation and temperature in the late Holocene for a number of the reconstructions, but regional complexity is also clear and the cause remains to be addressed. More accurate reconstructions of climate parameters are of particular importance.

  2. Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, L.; Turner, A. G.; Highwood, E. J.

    2015-06-01

    Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also

  3. My tryst with the monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Lawrence

    Climate Research Programme, providing leadership for major observational experiments over the surrounding seas in the raging monsoon. Over the years, in ... sible to use this link to enhance the skill of monsoon predictions. Since we meteorologists always stress the importance of studying the monsoon in an agricultural ...

  4. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

  5. Rainfall Analyses of Coonoor Hill Station of Nilgiris District for Landslide Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramani Sujatha, Evangelin; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    The most common triggering factor of landslides in a hill terrain is rainfall. Assessment of the extreme and antecedent rainfall events and its quantum is imperative to evaluate the temporal occurrence of landslides. It also plays a vital role in the choice of the preventive measures to be adopted. This study focuses on an in-depth rainfall analysis of Coonoor hill station. The analysis includes the study of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall patterns for a period of 80 years, between 1935 and 2013. Further, one day maximum, 5 day and more antecedent rainfall and its amount is calculated for the years between 2007-2012, 2014 and 2015.The result of the study indicates an increase in the normal rainfall based on the mean of 30 years of data (for the recent decades) and erratic pattern of rainfall during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon south-west monsoon periods. A detailed analysis of daily rainfall for the selected period indicates that extreme highest daily rainfall of more than 300 mm above occurred after consecutive rainfall trigged massive landslides comparing highest rainfall amount around 100 to 180 mm rainfall events.

  6. The Indian Monsoon

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    including clouds, birds, butterflies, flowering trees and elephants. In this article, I discuss the links between the variation of the monsoon and ... migration of a planetary scale rain belt in response to the seasonal variation of the latitude at which the sun is overhead (Figure 1)1. This rain belt is associated with a planetary scale ...

  7. Tropical and Monsoonal Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    December 1978 (Fig. 10) the Si- ented southwest to northeast at 400N, between 100 berian anticyclone maximum is nestled up against the and I 30°E. Upper...over the South China Sea in the Malaysia ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS region during the winter monsoon, December 1973. Pure AppL Geophys., 115, 1303-1334. We wish

  8. What aspects of future rainfall changes matter for crop yields in West Africa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela; Baron, Christian; Lobell, David B.

    2015-10-01

    How rainfall arrives, in terms of its frequency, intensity, the timing and duration of rainy season, may have a large influence on rainfed agriculture. However, a thorough assessment of these effects is largely missing. This study combines a new synthetic rainfall model and two independently validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to assess sorghum yield response to possible shifts in seasonal rainfall characteristics in West Africa. We find that shifts in total rainfall amount primarily drive the rainfall-related crop yield change, with less relevance to intraseasonal rainfall features. However, dry regions (total annual rainfall below 500 mm/yr) have a high sensitivity to rainfall frequency and intensity, and more intense rainfall events have greater benefits for crop yield than more frequent rainfall. Delayed monsoon onset may negatively impact yields. Our study implies that future changes in seasonal rainfall characteristics should be considered in designing specific crop adaptations in West Africa.

  9. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, A; Sperber, K R; Slingo, J M; Meehl, G A; Mechoso, C R; Kimoto, M; Giannini, A

    2008-09-16

    The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal timescales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features

  10. A diagnostic study of monsoon energetics for two contrasting years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present study we made an attempt to explain the behavior of the southwest monsoon for two contrasting years, from the view point of energetics. As a test case we selected 2002 and 2003, which were weak and strong monsoon years, respectively, based on rainfall. The energy terms Kψ, Kχ and APE and the conversion terms f∇ψ. ∇χ, −ω'T' are calculated at 850 hPa level and also vertically integrated from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa. The results indicate that, the year of high energy (both KΨ, Kχ i.e. 2002, does not give a good amount of rainfall compared to the good year i.e. 2003. The break period during the year 2002 has been clearly explained using the block diagrams. Periods of highest rainfall coincide with the positive conversions of f∇ψ. ∇χ and −ω'T'. Vertically integrated moisture fluxes during the break period of 2002, 2003 are also analyzed. The main reservoirs (sources and sinks for the monsoon energy are also identified using block diagrams. Negative correlation between daily rainfall and energy terms in the year 2002 indicates its unusual behavior both in terms of energetics as well as precipitation. Positive correlations in the year 2003 represent strong monsoonal behavior. We calculated the climatology of the total kinetic energy at 850 hPa, vertically integrated (1000–100 hPa for 30 years (1980–2009 and rainfall for 103 years (1901–2003 which clearly indicates that the monsoon is indeed a season of high energy for the South Asian region.

    Also the east- west direct thermal circulations are strongly related to the good and bad monsoon years.

  11. The aerosol-monsoon climate system of Asia: A new paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2016-02-01

    This commentary is based on a series of recent lectures on aerosol-monsoon interactions I gave at the Beijing Normal University in August 2015. A main theme of the lectures is on a new paradigm of "An Aerosol-Monsoon-Climate-System", which posits that aerosol, like rainfall, cloud, and wind, is an integral component of the monsoon climate system, influencing monsoon weather and climate on all timescales. Here, salient issues discussed in my lectures and my personal perspective regarding interactions between atmospheric dynamics and aerosols from both natural and anthropogenic sources are summarized. My hope is that under this new paradigm, we can break down traditional disciplinary barriers, advance a deeper understanding of weather and climate in monsoon regions, as well as entrain a new generation of geoscientists to strive for a sustainable future for one of the most complex and challenging human-natural climate sub-system of the earth.

  12. Indian monsoon and the elevated-heat-pump mechanism in a coupled aerosol-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Errico, Miriam; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Lau, William K. M.; von Hardenberg, Jost; Fierli, Federico; Cherchi, Annalisa

    2015-09-01

    A coupled aerosol-atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model is used to explore the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Results show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface. In the same period, enhanced surface cooling may also be amplified through solar dimming by more cloudiness and aerosol loading, via increased dust transported by low-level westerly flow. The surface cooling causes subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall in July-August over India. The time-lagged nature of the reasonably realistic response of the model to aerosol forcing suggests that absorbing aerosols, besides their potential key roles in impacting monsoon water cycle and climate, may influence the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon.

  13. Indian monsoon variability in relation to Regional Pressure Index

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper Regional Pressure Index (RPI) over the Indian region (20°N-40°N and 70°E-85°E) has been constructed for 101 years (1899-1999) on a monthly scale. The relationship of these indices was carried out with the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (June-September) (ISMR) over the various homogeneous regions, ...

  14. Reconstructing Monsoon Variations in India - Evidence from Speleothems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breitenbach, S. F.; Lechleitner, F.; Plessen, B.; Marwan, N.; Cheng, H.; Adkins, J. F.; Haug, G. H.

    2012-12-01

    Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is of vital importance for ca. one fifth of the world's population, yet little is known about the factors governing its variability. Changing seasonality and/or rainfall intensity have profound impacts on the well-being of Asian agriculture-based societies. Most proxy-records from the Indian realm lack temporal resolution and age control sufficient to allow detailed analysis of high-frequency ISM rainfall variations. Low spatial coverage further restricts understanding spatial differences and the interactions between subsystems of the Asian summer monsoon, limiting understanding, not to mention reliable forecasting. Here, we summarize available information on rainfall changes over India, as reflected in speleothems. Suitable stalagmites offer highly precise chronologies and multi-proxy time series. Oxygen isotope and greyscale time series can track ISM intensity. Using published and new records from NE India, we present evidence for significant rainfall changes during the Holocene. Available proxy records show that while long-term ISM rainfall pattern changed in concert with supra-regional variations of the Asian summer monsoon, sub-decadal-scale ISM variations are influenced by local and regional influences. Complex network analysis of Indian and Chinese proxy data reveals that during the Medieval Warm Period ISM and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) were more tightly linked, with a seemingly strong ISM influence on the EASM. During the cooler Little Ice Age however, the ISM and EASM connection weakened and local effects exerted influence on both sub-systems of the Asian monsoon. In order to allow detailed insights in spatio-temporal variations of the ISM and external teleconnections, precisely dated high-resolution time series must be obtained from various places in the Indian peninsula and beyond. Only a combination of high temporal and spatial coverage will allow assessments of the likelihood of drought recurrence in a given

  15. Subtropical circulation, Tibetan Plateau, and Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, G. X.

    2015-12-01

    The characteristics of the land-air-sea interaction in summer subtropics and their impacts on climate were revealed. It was shown that different kind of diabatic heating plays different roles in the formation of the subtropical circulation where the surface sensible heating associated with the land-sea distribution plays a fundamentally important role, and the three spatial- scales of atmospheric forcing contribute in various ways to the formation of aridity/desert over the western parts of continents and wet/monsoon over the eastern parts. Thus monsoon and desert coexist as twin features. It was identified that the onset of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) consists of three dynamically consequential stages: the onset first occurs over the eastern Bay of Bengal (BOB) in early May, which is followed by the onset over the South China Sea in mid-May, and the Indian Monsoon onset in early June. During such an onset progression, the formation, maintenance and evolution of the South Asian High (SAH) play a significant role in generating the upper tropospheric dumping. In the lower troposphere, the development of the BOB monsoon onset vortex, the ASM onset barrier, the cross equatorial SST gradient and the forced convection over the eastern Arabian Sea also regulate the onset evolution. In winter the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can inspire a stationary dipole-type atmospheric wave, forming a specific climate pattern in Asia. In spring, such a dipole circulation forms the unique persistent rainfall over Southern China. The TP forcing can also anchor the ASM onset over the BOB by generating the unique short- life BOB SST warm pool and modulating the SAH in the upper troposphere. In summer the thermal forcing of the Tibetan-Iranian Plateau plays a significant role in controlling the Asian monsoon by transporting water vapor from the sea to the land for the genesis of continental monsoon. The TP thermal forcing also modulates the regional climate variability in different time scales.

  16. Rainfall variability and its association with El Niño Southern Oscillation in Tons River Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duhan, Darshana; Pandey, Ashish; Srivastava, Puneet

    2017-04-01

    In this study, rainfall variability in connection with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Tons River Basin which is a sub-basin of the Ganges River has been examined. The rainfall trends on annual and seasonal basis for 15 weather stations were examined using the data of 1951-2004. Furthermore, the association between ENSO and rainfall was analyzed using three methods, namely cumulative frequency distributions, correlation analysis, and composite analysis. The annual rainfall series analysis indicated a significant decrease at Govindgarh (5.5 mm/year) and Meja (6.6 mm/year) stations. Seasonal rainfall analysis indicated significant decreasing trends at fourteen stations in pre-monsoon season, ten stations in winter season, two stations in post-monsoon, and only one station in monsoon season. The average frequency of occurrence of drought is once in every 4-7 years. Only monsoon season rainfall showed a significant negative correlation with Niño 3.4 SST at almost all the stations. During El Niño, the probability of below normal rainfall is high. However, during La Niña, the probability of above normal or near normal rainfall is high in monsoon season. Furthermore, comparison of results before (Pre76) and after (Post76) the climate shift revealed that the relationship between rainfall and El Niño has strengthened after the climate shift.

  17. Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Rohit; Chakraborty, Arindam; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify relative roles of different land-atmospheric conditions, apart from sea surface temperature (SST), in determining early vs. late summer monsoon intensity over India in a high resolution general circulation model (GCM). We find that in its early phase (June-July; JJ), pre-monsoon land-atmospheric processes play major role to modulate the precipitation over Indian region. These effects of pre-monsoon conditions decrease substantially during its later phase (August-September; AS) for which the interannual variation is mainly governed by the low frequency northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations. This intraseasonal variability which is related to mean vertical wind shear has a significant role during the early phase of monsoon as well. Further, using multiple linear regression, we show that interannual variation of early and late monsoon rainfall over India is best explained when all these land-atmospheric parameters are taken together. Our study delineates the relative role of different processes affecting early versus later summer monsoon rainfall over India that can be used for determining its subseasonal predictability.

  18. On the atmospheric dynamical responses to land-use change in East Asian monsoon region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Huqiang [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Arid Meteorology, Lanzhou (China); Gao, Xuejie [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing (China); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)

    2009-08-15

    This study aims at (1) exploring dominant atmospheric dynamical processes which are responsible for climate model-simulated land-use impacts on Asian monsoon; and (2) assessing uncertainty in such model simulations due to their skills in simulating detailed monsoon circulations in the region. Firstly, results from a series of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) global model simulations of land-use vegetation changes (LUC) in China are analysed. The model showed consistent signals of changes in atmospheric low-level vertical profile and regional circulations responding to LUC. In northern winter, the model-simulated rainfall reduction and surface cooling are associated with an enhanced southward penetration of dry and cold air mass, which impedes warm and humid air reaching the region for generating cold-front rainfall. In its summer, an enhanced cyclonic circulation responding to LUC further blocks the northeast penetration of southwesterly summer monsoon flow into the region and results in rainfall decreases and a surface warming. Secondly, we have explored uncertainties in the proposed mechanism operating in the global model. By comparing its results with a set of high-resolution regional model simulations using the same vegetation datasets, it reveals similar changes in winter rainfall but opposite features in summer rainfall responses. In the global model, there is a cyclonic low-level circulation pattern over the South China Sea and adjacent region, an unsatisfactory feature commonly seen in other global climate models. With the reduction in surface roughness following LUC, such a deficiency becomes more prominent which further results in a weakened south/southwesterly summer monsoon flow and rainfall reduction. In contrast, in the regional model, its southwesterly summer monsoon flow is further enhanced due to the same process as reduced surface roughness. The enhanced monsoon flow further pushes the East Asian monsoon rainfall belt

  19. The West African Monsoon Dynamics. Part II: The `Preonset' and `Onset' of the Summer Monsoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Janicot, Serge

    2003-11-01

    The arrival of the summer monsoon over West Africa has been documented by using daily gridded rainfall data and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses during the period 1968-90, and OLR data over the period 1979-90. Two steps have been characterized through a composite approach: the preonset and the onset of the summer monsoon.The preonset stage corresponds to the arrival in the intertropical front (ITF) at 15°N, that is, the confluence line between moist southwesterly monsoon winds and dry northeasterly Harmattan, bringing sufficient moisture for isolated convective systems to develop in the Sudano-Sahelian zone while the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is centered at 5°N. The mean date for the preonset occurrence is 14 May and its standard deviation is 9.5 days during the period 1968-90. This leads to a first clear increase of the positive rainfall slope corresponding to the beginning of the rainy season over this Sudano-Sahelian area.The onset stage of the summer monsoon over West Africa is linked to an abrupt latitudinal shift of the ITCZ from a quasi-stationary location at 5°N in May-June to another quasi-stationary location at 10°N in July-August. The mean date for the onset occurrence is 24 June and its standard deviation is 8 days during the period 1968-90. This leads to a second increase of the positive rainfall slope over the Sudano-Sahelian zone signing the northernmost location of the ITCZ and the beginning of the monsoon season. This abrupt shift occurs mostly between 10°W and 5°E, where a meridional land-sea contrast exists, and it is characterized by a temporary rainfall and convection decrease over West Africa. Preonset dates, onset dates, and summer rainfall amount over the Sahel are uncorrelated during the period 1968-90.The atmospheric dynamics associated with the abrupt ITCZ shift has been investigated. Between the preonset and the onset stages, the heat low dynamics associated with the ITF controls the circulation in the low and midlevels. Its

  20. Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing: I. Formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Guoxiong; Liu, Yimin; Duan, Anmin; Bao, Qing [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Dong, Buwen [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading (United Kingdom); Liang, Xiaoyun [China Meteorological Administration, National Climate Center, Beijing (China); Yu, Jingjing [China Meteorological Administration, National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing (China)

    2012-09-15

    Numerical experiments with different idealized land and mountain distributions are carried out to study the formation of the Asian monsoon and related coupling processes. Results demonstrate that when there is only extratropical continent located between 0 and 120 E and between 20/30 N and the North Pole, a rather weak monsoon rainband appears along the southern border of the continent, coexisting with an intense intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The continuous ITCZ surrounds the whole globe, prohibits the development of near-surface cross-equatorial flow, and collects water vapor from tropical oceans, resulting in very weak monsoon rainfall. When tropical lands are integrated, the ITCZ over the longitude domain where the extratropical continent exists disappears as a consequence of the development of a strong surface cross-equatorial flow from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. In addition, an intense interaction between the two hemispheres develops, tropical water vapor is transported to the subtropics by the enhanced poleward flow, and a prototype of the Asian monsoon appears. The Tibetan Plateau acts to enhance the coupling between the lower and upper tropospheric circulations and between the subtropical and tropical monsoon circulations, resulting in an intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon and a weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Linking the Iranian Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau substantially reduces the precipitation over Africa and increases the precipitation over the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian subcontinent, effectively contributing to the development of the South Asian summer monsoon. (orig.)

  1. On the role of sea surface temperature variability over the Tropical Indian Ocean in relation to summer monsoon using satellite data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Muraleedharan, P.M.; Sathe, P.V.

    week). 80.58E) and the weekly rainfall over different meteoro- logical subdivisions for different lags. Evidently there isFurther it was seen that the SCZASST was found to be negatively and significantly correlated with the monsoon positive...- lated with monsoon rainfall over several meteoro- nama Charyulu, R. J., and Gangdhara Rao, L. V. (1988), Sea logical subdivisions with the maximum correlation surface temperature mapping using a thermal infrared scan- ner. Mahasagar 21:67–74.in the same...

  2. Tropical cyclone influence on the long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubota, Hisayuki; Shirooka, Ryuichi; Matsumoto, Jun; Cayanan, Esperanza O.; Hilario, Flaviana D.

    2017-12-01

    The long-term variability of Philippine summer monsoon onset from 1903 to 2013 was investigated. The onset date is defined by daily rainfall data at eight stations in the northwestern Philippines. Summer monsoons tended to start earlier in May after the mid-1990s. Other early onset periods were found during the 1900s, 1920s, and 1930s, and an interdecadal variability of summer monsoon onset was identified. Independent surface wind data observed by ships in the South China Sea (SCS) revealed prevailing westerly wind in May during the early monsoon onset period. To identify atmospheric structures that trigger Philippine summer monsoon onset, we focused on the year 2013, conducting intensive upper-air observations. Tropical cyclone (TC) Yagi traveled northward in the Philippine Sea (PS) in 2013 and triggered the Philippine monsoon onset by intensifying moist low-level southwesterly wind in the southwestern Philippines and intensifying low-level southerly wind after the monsoon onset in the northwestern Philippines. The influence of TC was analyzed by the probability of the existence of TC in the PS and the SCS since 1951, which was found to be significantly correlated with the Philippine summer monsoon onset date. After the mid-1990s, early monsoon onset was influenced by active TC formation in the PS and the SCS. However, the role of TC activity decreased during the late summer monsoon periods. In general, it was found that TC activity in the PS and the SCS plays a key role in initiating Philippine summer monsoon onset. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

  3. Summer monsoon rainfall prediction for India - Some new ideas

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Varkey, M.J.

    subdivisions, in intensity and duration, and tolerance levels of various crops during different phases of growth to different types of rains, it is found that floods and droughts only cause calamities like famine, diseases, loss of property etc. At present, a...

  4. Seasonal prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over cluster ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S B Kakade∗ and Ashwini Kulkarni. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411 008, India. ∗ ... the combined effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO), an index called effective strength index (ESI) has ..... oscillations in northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. NAO and SO exist ...

  5. Fine Scale Projections of Indian Monsoonal Rainfall Using Statistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, S.; Ghosh, S.; Rajendran, K.

    2012-12-01

    General Circulation models (GCMs) simulate climate variables globally accounting for the effects of green house emission; however, they mostly work in coarse resolutions and hence their performances for simulations of precipitation are not always reliable. To overcome this limitation we are using statistical techniques as downscaling methods for projecting precipitation as finer resolution (25 km grid approximately, 0.22° latitude x 0.22° longitude). Here we use conventional statistical downscaling where the relationship between predictor climate variables (other than precipitation) and precipitation are determined and then applied to GCM output for projections of precipitation. Kernel regression is used for developing the statistical relationship. The results are compared with interpolated, quantile based bias corrected GCM simulated precipitation output. Both the methodologies are applied to CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and the multi-model averaged (MMA) results are compared. The GCMs used are MRI, MIROC, BCCR, MPI, and CCCMA. We first evaluate the 20C3M simulations with the observed data, and we find that conventionally downscaled MMA simulations of CMIP5 do not show significant improvements over those of CMIP3, which suggests that there is no significant change in predictor simulations by the CMIP5 GCMs over those of CMIP3. However, when we do the same exercise with bias correction, we find bias corrected CMIP5 simulations are significantly improved. This shows that simulation of precipitation in Indian region for observed period has been improved with CMIP5 models. After validations, both the models are applied for future projections. It is observed that, though bias corrected models perform well for observed period, they simulate spatially uniform changes of precipitation in the entire country. The conventional downscaling method, involving predictors other than precipitation, simulates non uniform changes for future, which is similar to the trend of last 50 years of Indian precipitation pattern. The reason behind the failure of bias corrected model in projecting spatially non-uniform precipitation is the inability of the GCMs in modeling finer scale geophysical processes in changed condition. The results highlight the need to revisit the bias correction methods for future projections, to incorporate of finer scale processes.

  6. Predicting monsoon rainfall and pressure indices from sea surface temperature

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.

    . Office, Brecknell, UK). Relationship between SST and pressure indices (change in sea level pressure from January to April at Darwin (DWPJ-A), difference in sea level pressure at Bombay between April and January (BMBPA-J); change in 500mb ridge position...

  7. Occurrence of heavy rainfall around the confluence line in monsoon ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    irrigation department at Dowlaiswaram. If the river discharge at Dowlaiswaram exceeds 19.8 thousand cumecs (m3/s), the irrigation department issues a flood warning. The date of peak flood and the peak flood discharge in the above 22 flood cases are listed in table 1. For examining the synoptic systems and their. Figure 1 ...

  8. Forecasting of monsoon heavy rains: challenges in NWP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Iyengar, Gopal; Bhatla, R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Last decade has seen a tremendous improvement in the forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This is attributed to increased sophistication in NWP models, which resolve complex physical processes, advanced data assimilation, increased grid resolution and satellite observations. However, prediction of heavy rains is still a challenge since the models exhibit large error in amounts as well as spatial and temporal distribution. Two state-of-art NWP models have been investigated over the Indian monsoon region to assess their ability in predicting the heavy rainfall events. The unified model operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCUM) and the unified model operational at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator -- Global (ACCESS-G)) are used in this study. The recent (JJAS 2015) Indian monsoon season witnessed 6 depressions and 2 cyclonic storms which resulted in heavy rains and flooding. The CRA method of verification allows the decomposition of forecast errors in terms of error in the rainfall volume, pattern and location. The case by case study using CRA technique shows that contribution to the rainfall errors come from pattern and displacement is large while contribution due to error in predicted rainfall volume is least.

  9. The dynamical and thermodynamical structure of the monsoon over Southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Jennifer; Parker, Douglas; Menon, Arathy; Turner, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    The monsoon over southern peninsular India is characterised by heavy, persistent rainfall over the Western Ghats mountain range and more intermittent rainfall over the plateau to the east of the Ghats. As in northern India, strong connections exist between the large scale flow, convection and clouds, and the land surface and orography. Model biases in monsoon precipitation persist despite increases in resolution because these connections are poorly understood and not represented in the models. In June 2016 groundbreaking aircraft measurements of the monsoon over South India were taken. These measurements will fill a major gap in our understanding of the interactions between land, atmosphere, and ocean in the Indian monsoon. We present initial results from these measurements and use aircraft, radiosonde, and satellite observations to provide a comprehensive overview of the dynamics and thermodynamics of the monsoon over South India during this time. Our results focus on a) the large scale gradient in precipitation from the Arabian Sea and rainy Western Ghats to the eastern rainshadow and Bay of Bengal; b) the impact of a Bay of Bengal monsoon low pressure system on the usually-dry southeast coast; and c) the diurnal cycle in winds and precipitation over and offshore of the Western Ghats.

  10. Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

  11. The Indian monsoon variability and civilization changes in the Indian subcontinent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kathayat, Gayatri; Cheng, Hai; Sinha, Ashish; Yi, Liang; Li, Xianglei; Zhang, Haiwei; Li, Hangying; Ning, Youfeng; Edwards, R Lawrence

    2017-12-01

    The vast Indo-Gangetic Plain in South Asia has been home to some of the world's oldest civilizations, whose fortunes ebbed and flowed with time-plausibly driven in part by shifts in the spatiotemporal patterns of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. We use speleothem oxygen isotope records from North India to reconstruct the monsoon's variability on socially relevant time scales, allowing us to examine the history of civilization changes in the context of varying hydroclimatic conditions over the past 5700 years. Our data suggest that significant shifts in monsoon rainfall have occurred in concert with changes in the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the discharges of the Himalayan rivers. The close temporal relationship between these large-scale hydroclimatic changes and the intervals marking the significant sociopolitical developments of the Indus Valley and Vedic civilizations suggests a plausible role of climate change in shaping the important chapters of the history of human civilization in the Indian subcontinent.

  12. Differences of atmospheric boundary layer characteristics between pre-monsoon and monsoon period over the Erhai Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lujun; Liu, Huizhi; Du, Qun; Wang, Lei; Yang, Liu; Sun, Jihua

    2018-01-01

    The differences in planetary boundary layer characteristics, in particular atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH), humidity, and local circulations in pre-monsoon and monsoon period over the Erhai Lake, were simulated by the lake-atmosphere coupled model WRF v3.7.1. No lake simulations were also conducted to investigate lake effects over complex topography. During pre-monsoon period, local circulation was fully developed under weak synoptic system. The ABLH ran up to 2300 m or so. During monsoon period, temperature difference between land and lake became smaller, resulting in weaker local circulations. The height of circulation reduced by 500 m, and ABLH ran up to 1100 m during the day. Enhanced soil moisture and low surface temperature due to monsoon rainfalls in July could be the main reason for the slightly lower ABLH over the Erhai Lake area. Specific humidity of the boundary layer increased 8.8 g kg-1 or so during monsoon period. The Erhai Lake enlarged thermal contrast between valley and mountain slope in the Dali Basin. The lake reduced air temperature by 2 3 °C during daytime and increased air temperature by nearly 2 °C in the evening. Due to its small roughness length and large thermal capacity, the Erhai Lake enlarged lake-land temperature difference and local wind speed. A cyclonic circulation was maintained by the combination of mountain breeze and land breeze in the south of the lake. The lake decreased air temperature, increased specific humidity, and reduced ABLH during daytime, whereas the opposite effect is presented at night.

  13. Sensitivity of convective precipitation to soil moisture and vegetation during break spell of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutty, Govindan; Sandeep, S.; Vinodkumar; Nhaloor, Sreejith

    2017-07-01

    Indian summer monsoon rainfall is characterized by large intra-seasonal fluctuations in the form of active and break spells in rainfall. This study investigates the role of soil moisture and vegetation on 30-h precipitation forecasts during the break monsoon period using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The working hypothesis is that reduced rainfall, clear skies, and wet soil condition during the break monsoon period enhance land-atmosphere coupling over central India. Sensitivity experiments are conducted with modified initial soil moisture and vegetation. The results suggest that an increase in antecedent soil moisture would lead to an increase in precipitation, in general. The precipitation over the core monsoon region has increased by enhancing forest cover in the model simulations. Parameters such as Lifting Condensation Level, Level of Free Convection, and Convective Available Potential Energy indicate favorable atmospheric conditions for convection over forests, when wet soil conditions prevail. On spatial scales, the precipitation is more sensitive to soil moisture conditions over northeastern parts of India. Strong horizontal gradient in soil moisture and orographic uplift along the upslopes of Himalaya enhanced rainfall over the east of Indian subcontinent.

  14. The interaction of Indian monsoon depressions with northwesterly dry intrusions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Jennifer; Hunt, Kieran; Parker, Douglas

    2017-04-01

    Monsoon depressions (MDs) bring substantial monsoon rainfall to northern and central India. These events usually form over the Bay of Bengal and travel across northern India toward Pakistan. Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Interim Reanalysis, an MD tracking algorithm, and an objective identification method, we find that 30-40% of MDs interact with northerly intrusions of dry desert air masses as the MDs traverse the subcontinent. Dry intrusions nearly halve the precipitation rate in the southwest quadrant of MDs, where they rain the most. However, dry intrusions increase the rainfall rate near the MD centre. Both of these changes occur because dry intrusions change the structure of radial pressure gradients west of MD centres, increasing the pressure gradient near the centre and decreasing it further out. Dry intrusions reduce MDs' propagation speed and distance. Dry intrusions bring air with low potential vorticity (PV) to within 200 km of the centre of the monsoon depression. This causes a substantial negative PV anomaly near and to the west of the MD centre compared to MDs that do not encounter dry intrusions. This reduces the MDs' ability to propagate via potential vorticity advection.

  15. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.

    1984-01-01

    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  16. Atlantic effects on recent decadal trends in global monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-11-01

    Natural climate variability contributes to recent decadal climate trends. Specifically the trends during the satellite era since 1979 include Atlantic and Indian Ocean warming and Pacific cooling associated with phase shifts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and enhanced global monsoon (GM) circulation and rainfall especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we evaluate effects of the oceanic changes on the global and regional monsoon trends by partial ocean temperature restoring experiments in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Via trans-basin atmosphere-ocean teleconnections, the Atlantic warming drives a global pattern of sea surface temperature change that resembles observations, giving rise to the enhanced GM. The tropical Atlantic warming and the resultant Indian Ocean warming favor subtropical deep-tropospheric warming in both hemispheres, resulting in the enhanced monsoon circulations and precipitation over North America, South America and North Africa. The extratropical North Atlantic warming makes an additional contribution to the monsoon enhancement via Eurasian continent warming and resultant land-sea thermal gradient over Asia. The results of this study suggest that the Atlantic multidecadal variability can explain a substantial part of global climate variability including the recent decadal trends of GM.

  17. Subseasonal variability during the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Renguang [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, 4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2010-04-15

    Analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) data for the period 1998-2007 reveals large subseasonal fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea during the summer monsoon onset. These subseasonal SST changes are closely related to surface heat flux anomalies induced by surface wind and cloud changes in association with the summer monsoon onset. The SST changes feed back on the atmosphere by modifying the atmospheric instability. The results suggest that the South China Sea summer monsoon onset involves ocean-atmosphere coupling on subseasonal timescales. While the SST response to surface heat flux changes is quick and dramatic, the time lag between the SST anomalies and the atmospheric convection response varies largely from year to year. The spatial-temporal evolution of subseasonal anomalies indicates that the subseasonal variability affecting the South China Sea summer monsoon onset starts over the equatorial western Pacific, propagates northward to the Philippine Sea, and then moves westward to the South China Sea. The propagation of these subseasonal anomalies is related to the ocean-atmosphere interaction, involving the wind-evaporation and cloud-radiation effects on SST as well as SST impacts on lower-level convergence over the equatorial western Pacific and atmospheric instability over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea. (orig.)

  18. Regional simulation of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations at gray-zone resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xingchao; Pauluis, Olivier M.; Zhang, Fuqing

    2018-01-01

    Simulations of the Indian summer monsoon by the cloud-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at gray-zone resolution are described in this study, with a particular emphasis on the model ability to capture the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs). Five boreal summers are simulated from 2007 to 2011 using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as the lateral boundary forcing data. Our experimental setup relies on a horizontal grid spacing of 9 km to explicitly simulate deep convection without the use of cumulus parameterizations. When compared to simulations with coarser grid spacing (27 km) and using a cumulus scheme, the 9 km simulations reduce the biases in mean precipitation and produce more realistic low-frequency variability associated with MISOs. Results show that the model at the 9 km gray-zone resolution captures the salient features of the summer monsoon. The spatial distributions and temporal evolutions of monsoon rainfall in the WRF simulations verify qualitatively well against observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), with regional maxima located over Western Ghats, central India, Himalaya foothills, and the west coast of Myanmar. The onset, breaks, and withdrawal of the summer monsoon in each year are also realistically captured by the model. The MISO-phase composites of monsoon rainfall, low-level wind, and precipitable water anomalies in the simulations also agree qualitatively with the observations. Both the simulations and observations show a northeastward propagation of the MISOs, with the intensification and weakening of the Somali Jet over the Arabian Sea during the active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon.

  19. Type-segregated aerosol effects on regional monsoon activity: A study using ground-based experiments and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayakumar, K.; Devara, P. C. S.; Sonbawne, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    Classification of observed aerosols into key types [e.g., clean-maritime (CM), desert-dust (DD), urban-industrial/biomass-burning (UI/BB), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and mixed-type aerosols (MA)] would facilitate to infer aerosol sources, effects, and feedback mechanisms, not only to improve the accuracy of satellite retrievals but also to quantify the assessment of aerosol radiative impacts on climate. In this paper, we report the results of a study conducted in this direction, employing a Cimel Sun-sky radiometer at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India during 2008 and 2009, which represent two successive contrasting monsoon years. The study provided an observational evidence to show that the local sources are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon), with strong seasonality closely linked to the monsoon annual rainfall cycle over Pune, a tropical urban station in India. The results revealed the absence of CM aerosols in the pre-monsoon as well as in the monsoon seasons of 2009 as opposed to 2008. Higher loading of dust aerosols is observed in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons of 2009; majority may be coated with fine BC aerosols from local emissions, leading to reduction in regional rainfall. Further, significant decrease in coarse-mode AOD and presence of carbonaceous aerosols, affecting the aerosol-cloud interaction and monsoon-rain processes via microphysics and dynamics, is considered responsible for the reduction in rainfall during 2009. Additionally, we discuss how optical depth, contributed by different types of aerosols, influences the distribution of monsoon rainfall over an urban region using the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) aerosol reanalysis. Furthermore, predictions of the Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) simulations combined with HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) cluster model are also discussed in support of the

  20. The influence of land cover change in the Asian monsoon region on present-day and mid-Holocene climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dallmeyer

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Using the general circulation model ECHAM5/JSBACH, we investigate the biogeophysical effect of large-scale afforestation and deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain on present-day and mid-Holocene climate. We demonstrate that the applied land cover change does not only modify the local climate but also change the climate in North Africa and the Middle East via teleconnections. Deforestation in the Asian monsoon domain enhances the rainfall in North Africa. In parts of the Sahara summer precipitation is more than doubled. In contrast, afforestation strongly decreases summer rainfall in the Middle East and even leads to the cessation of the rainfall-activity in some parts of this region.

    Regarding the local climate, deforestation results in a reduction of precipitation and a cooler climate as grass mostly has a higher albedo than forests. However, in the core region of the Asian monsoon the decrease in evaporative cooling in the monsoon season overcompensates this signal and results in a net warming. Afforestation has mainly the opposite effect, although the pattern of change is less clear. It leads to more precipitation in most parts of the Asian monsoon domain and a warmer climate except for the southern regions where a stronger evaporation decreases near-surface temperatures in the monsoon season.

    When prescribing mid-Holocene insolation, the pattern of local precipitation change differs. Afforestation particularly increases monsoon rainfall in the region along the Yellow River which was the settlement area of major prehistoric cultures. In this region, the effect of land cover change on precipitation is half as large as the orbitally-induced precipitation change. Thus, our model results reveal that mid- to late-Holocene land cover change could strongly have contributed to the decreasing Asian monsoon precipitation during the Holocene known from reconstructions.

  1. Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

    2013-12-01

    Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested

  2. Potential modulations of pre-monsoon aerosols during El Niño: impact on Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadnavis, S.; Roy, Chaitri; Sabin, T. P.; Ayantika, D. C.; Ashok, K.

    2017-10-01

    The potential role of aerosol loading on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the El Niño years are examined using satellite-derived observations and a state of the art fully interactive aerosol-chemistry-climate model. The Aerosol Index (AI) from TOMS (1978-2005) and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MISR spectroradiometer (2000-2010) indicate a higher-than-normal aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) during the pre-monsoon season with a concurrent El Niño. Sensitivity experiments using ECHAM5-HAMMOZ climate model suggests that this enhanced loading of pre-monsoon absorbing aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plain can reduce the drought during El Niño years by invoking the `Elevated-Heat-Pump' mechanism through an anomalous aerosol-induced warm core in the atmospheric column. This anomalous heating upshot the relative strengthening of the cross-equatorial moisture inflow associated with the monsoon and eventually reduces the severity of drought during El Niño years. The findings are subject to the usual limitations such as the uncertainties in observations, and limited number of El Niño years (during the study period).

  3. Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ueda, Hiroaki; Kuroki, Harumitsu; Kamae, Youichi [University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Ohba, Masamichi [Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Abiko (Japan)

    2011-12-15

    Modulation of a monsoon under glacial forcing is examined using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) following the specifications established by Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) to understand the air-sea-land interaction under different climate forcing. Several sensitivity experiments are performed in response to individual changes in the continental ice sheet, orbital parameters, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 ka) to evaluate the driving mechanisms for the anomalous seasonal evolution of the monsoon. Comparison of the model results in the LGM with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation shows that the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are characterized by enhancement of pre-monsoon convection despite a drop in the SST encompassing the globe, while the rainfall is considerably suppressed in the subsequent monsoon period. In the LGM winter relative to the PI, anomalies in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Asian continents minus the tropical oceans become positive and are consistent with the intensified pre-monsoon circulation. The enhanced MTG anomalies can be explained by a decrease in the condensation heating relevant to the suppressed tropical convection as well as positive insolation anomalies in the higher latitude, showing an opposing view to a warmer future climate. It is also evident that a latitudinal gradient in the SST across the equator plays an important role in the enhancement of pre-monsoon rainfall. As for the summer, the sensitivity experiments imply that two ice sheets over the northern hemisphere cools the air temperature over the Asian continent, which is consistent with the reduction of MTG involved in the attenuated monsoon. The surplus pre-monsoon convection causes a decrease in the SST through increased heat loss from the ocean surface; in other words, negative ocean feedback is also responsible for the subsequent weakening of summer

  4. Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Taxak

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

  5. Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

  6. Role of aerosols on the Indian Summer Monsoon variability, as simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cagnazzo, Chiara; Biondi, Riccardo; D'Errico, Miriam; Cherchi, Annalisa; Fierli, Federico; Lau, William K. M.

    2016-04-01

    Recent observational and modeling analyses have explored the interaction between aerosols and the Indian summer monsoon precipitation on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. By using global scale climate model simulations, we show that when increased aerosol loading is found on the Himalayas slopes in the premonsoon period (April-May), intensification of early monsoon rainfall over India and increased low-level westerly flow follow, in agreement with the elevated-heat-pump (EHP) mechanism. The increase in rainfall during the early monsoon season has a cooling effect on the land surface that may also be amplified through solar dimming (SD) by more cloudiness and aerosol loading with subsequent reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. We extend this analyses to a subset of CMIP5 climate model simulations. Our results suggest that 1) absorbing aerosols, by influencing the seasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon with the discussed time-lag, may act as a source of predictability for the Indian Summer Monsoon and 2) if the EHP and SD effects are operating also in a number of state-of-the-art climate models, their inclusion could potentially improve seasonal forecasts.

  7. Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Winter/Summer Monsoon Experiment (MONEX) was conducted during the First Global GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Experiment (FGGE). An international...

  8. Evolution of the South-East Monsoon System - An Investigation of the Dynamical Controls on the Monsoon System Over Geologic Time Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnsworth, A.; Lunt, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    The South-East Asian monsoon is a fundamental feature in the global climate system cycling energy, moisture and momentum from tropical to extra-tropical latitudes. Societies rely extensively on precipitation during the monsoon season to sustain population centres and economic activity such as agriculture. However the current monsoon system has not always been in its current configuration varying extensively throughout geological time. However little is known about the driving factors behind its creation and evolution. A series of numerical model simulation (HadCM3L) using state of the art reconstructed paleogeographies have been employed to investigate the evolution of the S.E. Asian monsoon system for each geological stage (32 simulations in total) since the beginning of the Cretaceous. Two methodologies, i) a fixed regional precipitation signal based on the current monsoon regions modern areal extent and ii) a migrating regional construct based on the modern day monsoon regions back rotated through time are investigated. These two methodologies allow an examination of the evolution of tropical precipitation over time in the region. The large-scale processes (paleogeography, CO2) of the monsoon system and the regional dynamics (e.g. sea surface temperatures, regional atmospheric circulation, oceanic heat transport, land-sea temperature differential) that control them are also examined with numerical results compared against available proxy data. Preliminary results indicate a downward trend in global precipitation since the late Eocene with significant change at the E/O boundary. In addition, tropical precipitation (40°N - 40°S) has seen a downward trend in rainfall since the mid-Cretaceous. S.E. Asia is shown to be influenced by changes in topographical features/ location, CO2 concentrations, and the regional atmospheric circulation playing a key role in modification of the monsoon system which drive variability on tectonic time scales.

  9. Rainfall variability and seasonality in northern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul; Husna, Noor-E.-Ashmaul

    2017-08-01

    This paper aimed at the analysis of rainfall seasonality and variability for the northern part of South-Asian country, Bangladesh. The coefficient of variability was used to determine the variability of rainfall. While rainfall seasonality index ( SI ) and mean individual seasonality index ( \\overline{SI_i} ) were used to identify seasonal contrast. We also applied Mann-Kendall trend test and sequential Mann-Kendall test to determine the trend in seasonality. The lowest variability was found for monsoon among the four seasons whereas winter has the highest variability. Observed variability has a decreasing tendency from the northwest region towards the northeast region. The mean individual seasonality index (0.815378 to 0.977228) indicates that rainfall in Bangladesh is "markedly seasonal with a long dry season." It was found that the length of the dry period is lower at the northeastern part of northern Bangladesh. Trend analysis results show no significant change in the seasonality of rainfall in this region. Regression analysis of \\overline{SI_i} and SI, and longitude and mean individual seasonality index show a significant linear correlation for this area.

  10. Volcanoes magnify Metro Manila's southwest monsoon rains and lethal floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar; Bagtasa, Gerry; Crisologo, Irene; Racoma, Bernard Alan; David, Carlos Primo

    Many volcanoes worldwide are located near populated cities that experience monsoon seasons, characterised by shifting winds each year. Because of the severity of flood impact to large populations, it is worthy of investigation in the Philippines and elsewhere to better understand the phenomenon for possible hazard mitigating solutions, if any. During the monsoon season, the change in flow direction of winds brings moist warm air to cross the mountains and volcanoes in western Philippines and cause lift into the atmosphere, which normally leads to heavy rains and floods. Heavy southwest monsoon rains from 18-21 August 2013 flooded Metro Manila (population of 12 million) and its suburbs paralyzing the nation’s capital for an entire week. Called the 2013 Habagat event, it was a repeat of the 2012 Habagat or extreme southwest monsoon weather from 6-9 August, which delivered record rains in the mega city. In both the 2012 and 2013 Habagat events, cyclones, the usual suspects for the delivery of heavy rains, were passing northeast of the Philippine archipelago, respectively, and enhanced the southwest monsoon. Analysis of Doppler data, rainfall measurements, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations show that two large stratovolcanoes, Natib and Mariveles, across from Manila Bay and approximately 70 km west of Metro Manila, played a substantial role in delivering extreme rains and consequent floods to Metro Manila. The study highlights how volcanoes, with their shape and height create an orographic effect and dispersive tail of rain clouds which constitutes a significant flood hazard to large communities like Metro Manila.

  11. Direct and indirect aerosol effects on the Indian monsoon in the CMIP5 integrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, L.; Highwood, E.; Turner, A. G.

    2013-12-01

    The South Asian monsoon represents one of the most dramatic components of the global climate system and the summer season provides around 80% of annual rainfall to over a billion people in India and surrounding regions. Future climate change projections of the South Asian monsoon based on increased concentrations of greenhouse gases generally suggest small increases in seasonal mean rainfall, due to enhanced availability of moisture from the warmer Indian Ocean. However, rapid population growth and increasing industrialisation in India has led to massive sources of anthropogenic aerosol emission both as sulphate and black carbon (from cooking fires). This is particularly focused on the densely-populated Indo-Gangetic Plains region in northern India, where aerosols accumulate against the Himalayan foothills. In this study we use 20th century historical integrations of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Firstly we compare the subset of models in which greenhouse gases-only and aerosols-only experiments have been performed with the all-forcings integrations. We analyse the spatial pattern of rainfall change from the pre-industrial period to the present day as well as time series of rainfall over South Asia during summer, and show that the aerosol-only experiments more closely match the changes occurring in the all-forcings experiment. This suggests that at their late 20th century concentrations, aerosols play a dominant role over South Asian monsoon rainfall. Next, we examine the all-forcing simulations and compare those models that feature some representation of aerosol indirect effects with those models that consider aerosol direct effects only. In the direct effects-only models, the precipitation change from the pre-industrial period to the present day is shown to be positive over South Asia. However in the indirect effect models, the signal is negative, suggesting the importance of sulphate interactions with low cloud. We also discuss

  12. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Tao; Wang, Huixia Judy; Zhou, Tianjun

    2017-11-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960-2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

  13. The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, P.; Joshi, M.; Dimri, A. P.; Turner, A. G.

    2017-08-01

    The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during June to September. Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of the monsoon circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind-stress curl, and ocean upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed variability in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon intraseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet.

  14. Deep learning for predicting the monsoon over the homogeneous regions of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Moumita; Mitra, Pabitra; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2017-06-01

    Indian monsoon varies in its nature over the geographical regions. Predicting the rainfall not just at the national level, but at the regional level is an important task. In this article, we used a deep neural network, namely, the stacked autoencoder to automatically identify climatic factors that are capable of predicting the rainfall over the homogeneous regions of India. An ensemble regression tree model is used for monsoon prediction using the identified climatic predictors. The proposed model provides forecast of the monsoon at a long lead time which supports the government to implement appropriate policies for the economic growth of the country. The monsoon of the central, north-east, north-west, and south-peninsular India regions are predicted with errors of 4.1%, 5.1%, 5.5%, and 6.4%, respectively. The identified predictors show high skill in predicting the regional monsoon having high variability. The proposed model is observed to be competitive with the state-of-the-art prediction models.

  15. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China

    KAUST Repository

    Gao, Tao

    2017-07-19

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are well understood to be major drivers for the variability of precipitation extremes over monsoon regions in China (MRC). However, research on monsoon extremes in China and their associations with climate variables is limited. In this study, we examine the space-time variations of extreme precipitation across the MRC, and assess the time-varying influences of the climate drivers using Bayesian dynamic linear regression and their combined nonlinear effects through fitting generalized additive models. Results suggest that the central-east and south China is dominated by less frequent but more intense precipitation. Extreme rainfalls show significant positive trends, coupled with a significant decline of dry spells, indicating an increasing chance of occurrence of flood-induced disasters in the MRC during 1960–2014. Majority of the regional indices display some abrupt shifts during the 1990s. The influences of climate variables on monsoon extremes exhibit distinct interannual or interdecadal variations. IOD, ENSO and AMO have strong impacts on monsoon and extreme precipitation, especially during the 1990s, which is generally consistent with the abrupt shifts in precipitation regimes around this period. Moreover, ENSO mainly affects moderate rainfalls and dry spells, while IOD has a more significant impact on precipitation extremes. These findings could be helpful for improving the forecasting of monsoon extremes in China and the evaluations of climate models.

  16. Freshwater monsoon related inputs in the Japan Sea: a diatom record from IODP core U1427

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, C. P. L.; Lopes, C.

    2016-12-01

    Monsoon rainfall is the life-blood of more than half the world's population. Extensive research is being conducted in order to refine projections regarding the impact of anthropogenic climate change on these systems. The East Asian monsoon (EAM) plays a significant role in large-scale climate variability. Due to its importance to global climate and world's population, there is an urgent need for greater understanding of this system, especially during past climate changes. The input of freshwater from the monsoon precipitation brings specific markers, such as freshwater diatoms and specific diatom ecological assemblages that are preserved in marine sediments. Freshwater diatoms are easily identifiable and have been used in the North Pacific to reconstruct environmental conditions (Lopes et al 2006) and flooding episodes (Lopes and Mix, 2009). Here we show preliminary results of freshwater diatoms records that are linked with river discharge due to increase land rainfall that can be derived from Monsoon rainfall. We extend our preliminary study to the past 400ky.

  17. Intra-Seasonal Rainfall Variations and Linkage with Kharif Crop Production: An Attempt to Evaluate Predictability of Sub-Seasonal Rainfall Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Ankita; Ghosh, Kripan; Mohanty, U. C.

    2017-11-01

    The sub-seasonal variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall highly impacts Kharif crop production in comparison with seasonal total rainfall. The rainfall frequency and intensity corresponding to various rainfall events are found to be highly related to crop production and therefore, the predictability of such events are considered to be diagnosed. Daily rainfall predictions are made available by one of the coupled dynamical model National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (NCEPCFS). A large error in the simulation of daily rainfall sequence influences to take up a bias correction and for that reason, two approaches are used. The bias-corrected GCM is able to capture the inter-annual variability in rainfall events. Maximum prediction skill of frequency of less rainfall (LR) event is observed during the month of September and a similar result is also noticed for moderate rainfall event with maximum skill over the central parts of the country. On the other hand, the impact of rainfall weekly rainfall intensity is evaluated against the Kharif rice production. It is found that weekly rainfall intensity during July is having a significant impact on Kharif rice production, but the corresponding skill was found very low in GCM. The GCM are able to simulate the less and moderate rainfall frequency with significant skill.

  18. Large-scale overview of the summer monsoon over West Africa during the AMMA field experiment in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Janicot

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available The AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program is dedicated to providing a better understanding of the West African monsoon and its influence on the physical, chemical and biological environment regionally and globally, as well as relating variability of this monsoon system to issues of health, water resources, food security and demography for West African nations. Within this framework, an intensive field campaign took place during the summer of 2006 to better document specific processes and weather systems at various key stages of this monsoon season. This campaign was embedded within a longer observation period that documented the annual cycle of surface and atmospheric conditions between 2005 and 2007. The present paper provides a large and regional scale overview of the 2006 summer monsoon season, that includes consideration of of the convective activity, mean atmospheric circulation and synoptic/intraseasonal weather systems, oceanic and land surface conditions, continental hydrology, dust concentration and ozone distribution. The 2006 African summer monsoon was a near-normal rainy season except for a large-scale rainfall excess north of 15° N. This monsoon season was also characterized by a 10-day delayed onset compared to climatology, with convection becoming developed only after 10 July. This onset delay impacted the continental hydrology, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics as well as dust emission. More details of some less-well-known atmospheric features in the African monsoon at intraseasonal and synoptic scales are provided in order to promote future research in these areas.

  19. Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

  20. Simulation of the Indian and East-Asian summer monsoon in the ECMWF model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sperber, K.R.; Potter, G.L.; Boyle, J.S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hameed, S. [State Univ. of New York, Stony Brook, NY (United States). Inst. for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres

    1993-11-01

    The ability of the ECMWF model (Cycle 33) to simulate the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon is evaluated at four different horizontal resolutions: T21, T42, T63, and T106. Generally, with respect to the large scale features of the circulation, the largest differences among the simulations occur at T42 relative to T21. However, on regional scales, important differences among the high frequency temporal variabilitY serve as a further critical test of the model`s ability to simulate the monsoon. More generally, the results indicate the importance of evaluating high frequency time scales as a component of the climate system. T106 best captures both the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Indian and East Asian Monsoon, while T42 fails to correctly simulate the sequence and development of synoptic scale milestones that characterize the monsoon flow. In particular, T106 is superior at simulating the development and migration of the monsoon trough over the Bay of Bengal. In the T42 simulation, the development of the monsoon occurs one month earlier than typically observed. At this time the trough is incorrectly located adjacent to the east coast of India which results in an underestimate of precipitation over the Burma/Thailand region. This early establishment of the monsoon trough affects the evolution of the East-Asian monsoon and yields excessive preseason rainfall over the Mei-yu region. EOF analysis of precipitation over China indicates that T106 best simulates the Mei-yu mode of variability associated with an oscillation of the rainband that gives rise to periods of enhanced rainfall over the Yangize River Valley. The coarse resolution of T21 precludes simulation of the aforementioned regional scale monsoon flows.

  1. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramagamage, P.

    2016-08-01

    This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

  2. Monitoring Niger River Floods from satellite Rainfall Estimates : overall skill and rainfall uncertainty propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosset, Marielle; Casse, Claire; Peugeot, christophe; boone, aaron; pedinotti, vanessa

    2015-04-01

    skills in detecting the relatively heavy rainfall that preceded the flood and in predicting that the 95th percentile of the discharge (i.e. the flood alert level in Niamey) will be exceeded. One outcome of the work is to show how different types of satellite information can be relevant and their scales complementing each-other for tropical hydrology. The red flood of the Niger river in Niamey is a good example of these scale complementarity. Satellite altimetry is needed to monitor the low frequency variation of the Niger outflow associated with early season rainfall far ahead of Niamey ; while high resolution satellite rainfall products are needed to model the fast response to the rainfall occurring during the heart of the monsoon season near Niamey.

  3. Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

    2014-05-01

    Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

  4. Assessment of two versions of regional climate model in simulating the Indian Summer Monsoon over South Asia CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattnayak, K. C.; Panda, S. K.; Saraswat, Vaishali; Dash, S. K.

    2017-07-01

    This study assess the performance of two versions of Regional Climate Model (RegCM) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon over South Asia for the period 1998 to 2003 with an aim of conducting future climate change simulations. Two sets of experiments were carried out with two different versions of RegCM (viz. RegCM4.2 and RegCM4.3) with the lateral boundary forcings provided from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis (ERA-interim) at 50 km horizontal resolution. The major updates in RegCM4.3 in comparison to the older version RegCM4.2 are the inclusion of measured solar irradiance in place of hardcoded solar constant and additional layers in the stratosphere. The analysis shows that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, moisture flux and surface net downward shortwave flux are better represented in RegCM4.3 than that in the RegCM4.2 simulations. Excessive moisture flux in the RegCM4.2 simulation over the northern Arabian Sea and Peninsular India resulted in an overestimation of rainfall over the Western Ghats, Peninsular region as a result of which the all India rainfall has been overestimated. RegCM4.3 has performed well over India as a whole as well as its four rainfall homogenous zones in reproducing the mean monsoon rainfall and inter-annual variation of rainfall. Further, the monsoon onset, low-level Somali Jet and the upper level tropical easterly jet are better represented in the RegCM4.3 than RegCM4.2. Thus, RegCM4.3 has performed better in simulating the mean summer monsoon circulation over the South Asia. Hence, RegCM4.3 may be used to study the future climate change over the South Asia.

  5. The Diurnal Cycle of the Boundary Layer, Convection, Clouds, and Surface Radiation in a Coastal Monsoon Environment (Darwin Australia)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, Peter T.; Long, Charles N.; Protat, Alain

    2012-08-01

    The diurnal variation of convection and associated cloud and radiative properties remains a significant issue in global NWP and climate models. This study analyzes observed diurnal variability of convection in a coastal monsoonal environment examining the interaction of convective rain clouds, their associated cloud properties, and the impact on the surface radiation and corresponding boundary layer structure during periods where convection is suppressed or active on the large scale. The analysis uses data from the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) as well as routine measurements from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. Both active monsoonal and large-scale suppressed (buildup and break) conditions are examined and demonstrate that the diurnal variation of rainfall is much larger during the break periods and the spatial distribution of rainfall is very different between the monsoon and break regimes. During the active monsoon the total net radiative input to the surface is decreased by more than 3 times the amount than during the break regime - this total radiative cloud forcing is found to be dominated by the shortwave (SW) cloud effects because of the much larger optical thicknesses and persistence of long-lasting anvils and cirrus cloud decks associated with the monsoon regime. These differences in monsoon versus break surface radiative energy contribute to low-level air temperature differences in the boundary layer over the land surfaces.

  6. GMMIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Turner, Andrew G.; Kinter, James L.; Wang, Bin; Qian, Yun; Chen, Xiaolong; Wu, Bo; Wang, Bin; Liu, Bo; Zou, Liwei; He, Bian

    2016-10-10

    The Global Monsoons Model Inter-comparison Project (GMMIP) has been endorsed by the panel of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as one of the participating model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) in the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6). The focus of GMMIP is on monsoon climatology, variability, prediction and projection, which is relevant to four of the “Grand Challenges” proposed by the World Climate Research Programme. At present, 21 international modeling groups are committed to joining GMMIP. This overview paper introduces the motivation behind GMMIP and the scientific questions it intends to answer. Three tiers of experiments, of decreasing priority, are designed to examine (a) model skill in simulating the climatology and interannual-to-multidecadal variability of global monsoons forced by the sea surface temperature during historical climate period; (b) the roles of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in driving variations of the global and regional monsoons; and (c) the effects of large orographic terrain on the establishment of the monsoons. The outputs of the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments (DECK), “historical” simulation and endorsed MIPs will also be used in the diagnostic analysis of GMMIP to give a comprehensive understanding of the roles played by different external forcings, potential improvements in the simulation of monsoon rainfall at high resolution and reproducibility at decadal timescales. The implementation of GMMIP will improve our understanding of the fundamental physics of changes in the global and regional monsoons over the past 140 years and ultimately benefit monsoons prediction and projection in the current century.

  7. Meteorological results of monsoon-88 Expedition (pre-monsoon period)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Krishnamurthy, L.; Babu, M.T.

    Mean atmospheric circulation, moisture budget and net heat exchange were studied during a pre-monsoon period (18th March to 3rd May, 1988), making use of the data collected on board "Akademik Korolev" in the central equatorial and southern Arabian...

  8. Investigating the mechanisms of diurnal rainfall variability over Peninsular Malaysia using the non-hydrostatic regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamaluddin, Ahmad Fairudz; Tangang, Fredolin; Chung, Jing Xiang; Juneng, Liew; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Takayabu, Izuru

    2017-07-01

    This study aims to provide a basis for understanding the mechanisms of diurnal rainfall variability over Peninsular Malaysia by utilising the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model (NHRCM). The present day climate simulations at 5 km resolution over a period of 20 years, from 1st December 1989 to 31st January 2010 were conducted using the six-hourly Japanese re-analysis 55 years (JRA-55) data and monthly Centennial in situ Observation Based Estimates (COBE) of sea surface temperature as lateral and lower boundary conditions. Despite some biases, the NHRCM performed reasonably well in simulating diurnal rainfall cycles over Peninsular Malaysia. During inter-monsoon periods, the availability of atmospheric moisture played a major role in modulating afternoon rainfall maxima over the foothills of the Titiwangsa mountain range (FT sub-region). During the southwest monsoon, a lack of atmospheric moisture inhibits the occurrence of convective rainfall over the FT sub-region. The NHRCM was also able to simulate the suppression of the diurnal rainfall cycle over the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (EC sub-region) and afternoon rainfall maximum over the Peninsular Malaysia inland-valley (IN sub-region) area during the northeast monsoon. Over the EC sub-region, daytime radiational warming of the top of clouds enhanced atmospheric stability, thus reducing afternoon rainfall. On the other hand, night-time radiational cooling from cloud tops decreases atmospheric stability and increases nocturnal rainfall. In the early morning, the rainfall maximum was confined to the EC sub-region due to the retardation of the north-easterly monsoonal wind by the land breeze and orographic blocking. However, in the afternoon, superimposition of the sea breeze on the north-easterly monsoonal wind strengthened the north-easterly wind, thus causing the zone of convection to expand further inland.

  9. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based....... Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months...

  10. Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

    2015-04-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the

  11. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2017-12-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  12. Dry and wet spell variability during monsoon in gauge-based gridded daily precipitation datasets over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, Shushobhit; Dhanya, C. T.; Vinnarasi, R.

    2017-03-01

    Accurate estimates of monsoonal rainfall at daily time scales are essential inputs for various water-related sectors such as drought and flood forecasting, crop and water management for agriculture. To serve this purpose, a variety of rainfall products, especially the gauge based products which serve as the ground-truth for other derived rainfall products, are available over India. In this study, three different daily gauge based gridded rainfall datasets, namely Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified rain gauge data are compared over India for the monsoon season of 1979-2007. The comparison among the datasets is based on the duration, frequency and intensity of three different spell characteristics, namely dry, wet and extreme wet spells, and their associated trends. Wet (dry) spells are defined as the consecutive period of wet (dry) days, where a wet (dry) day is defined using rainfall threshold of 1 mm. Extreme wet spells are defined using the 90th percentile of rainfall above the depth of wet day. All datasets capture the spatial distribution of precipitation characteristics, albeit with pronounced differences at heavy rainfall regions. CPC and IMD show a close match in spell characteristics while APHRODITE significantly deviates. APHRODITE shows increased intensity of rainfall during dry periods, leading to over-estimation of wet days and under-estimation of dry days. Northern extreme of India (Jammu and Kashmir) show major differences in replicating the spell characteristics. Trend patterns are also not consistent between the three datasets. The present study will provide information on the spatio-temporal pattern of dry, wet and extreme wet spell characteristics over India and aid in selecting appropriate datasets for studying the Indian monsoon rainfall depending on their scope and application of

  13. The crucial role of ocean-atmosphere coupling on the Indian monsoon anomalous response during dipole events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, R.; Swapna, P.; Ayantika, D.C.; Mujumdar, M. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Sundaram, Suchithra [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie de Geophysique G. Lemaitre, Louvain-La-Neuve (Belgium); Kumar, Vinay [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Climate and Global Modelling Division, Pune (India); Florida State University, Department of Meteorology, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2011-07-15

    This paper examines an issue concerning the simulation of anomalously wet Indian summer monsoons like 1994 which co-occurred with strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions in the tropical Indian Ocean. Contrary to observations it has been noticed that standalone atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced with observed SST boundary condition, consistently depicted a decrease of the summer monsoon rainfall during 1994 over the Indian region. Given the ocean-atmosphere coupling during IOD events, we have examined whether the failure of standalone AGCM simulations in capturing wet Indian monsoons like 1994 can be remedied by including a simple form of coupling that allows the monsoon circulation to dynamically interact with the IOD anomalies. With this view, we have performed a suite of simulations by coupling an AGCM to a slab-ocean model with spatially varying mixed-layer-depth (MLD) specified from observations for the 1994 IOD; as well as four other cases (1983, 1997, 2006, 2007). The specification of spatially varying MLD from observations allows us to constrain the model to observed IOD conditions. It is seen that the inclusion of coupling significantly improves the large-scale circulation response by strengthening the monsoon cross-equatorial flow; leading to precipitation enhancement over the subcontinent and rainfall decrease over south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean - in a manner broadly consistent with observations. A plausible physical mechanism is suggested to explain the monsoonal response in the coupled frame-work. These results warrant the need for improved monsoon simulations with fully coupled models to be able to better capture the observed monsoon interannual variability. (orig.)

  14. General Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia and the Potential Impacts of Local Seas on Rainfall Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Soo Lee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between observed rainfall, El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO and sea surface temperature (SST variations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were analyzed using a 1° latitude–longitude grid over Indonesia. The Global Summary of the Day rainfall records provide 26 years of rainfall data (January 1985 to August 2010 for 23 stations throughout the Indonesian islands. The ENSO and SST variations were calculated using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, NINO1 + 2, NINO3, NINO3.4, NINO4, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD, and Indian Ocean Basin-wide (IOBW index. The results show that the rainfall in the southern Sumatra and southern Java Islands, which face the Indian Ocean, was positively correlated with the negative IOD, whereas the rainfall in northwestern Sumatra was positively correlated with the positive IOD. In eastern Indonesia, the rainfall was positively correlated with La Niña. The PDO index was also strongly correlated with the rainfall in this region. In central Indonesia, seasonal variations due to monsoons are predominant, and the rainfall exhibited strong negative and positive correlations with the MEI and NINO.WEST, respectively, indicating that high rainfall occurred during strong La Niña episodes. The highly negative and positive correlations with the MEI and NINO.WEST, respectively, in central Indonesia led us to analyze the impacts of Indonesian seas on the rainfall in the region. Using four synoptic-scale scenarios, we investigated the relative residence time of Indonesian seawater along the pathways associated with the Pacific-Indian hydraulic head difference. The results show that when both the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans are warm (positive NINO.WEST and negative DMI, the rainfall intensity over central Indonesia is strongest. This increase is explained by the relationship between the residence time of Indonesian seawater and the

  15. Changing circulation structure and precipitation characteristics in Asian monsoon regions: greenhouse warming vs. aerosol effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Ruby Leung, L.

    2017-12-01

    Using model outputs from CMIP5 historical integrations, we have investigated the relative roles of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols in changing the characteristics of the large-scale circulation and rainfall in Asian summer monsoon (ASM) regions. Under GHG warming, a strong positive trend in low-level moist static energy (MSE) is found over ASM regions, associated with increasing large-scale land-sea thermal contrast from 1870s to present. During the same period, a mid-tropospheric convective barrier (MCB) due to widespread reduction in relative humidity in the mid- and lower troposphere is strengthening over the ASM regions, in conjunction with expanding areas of anomalous subsidence associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (Lau and Kim in Proc Natl Acad Sci 12:3630-3635, 2015). The opposing effects of MSE and MCB lead to enhanced total ASM rainfall, but only a partial strengthening of the southern portion of the monsoon meridional circulation, coupled to anomalous multi-cellular overturning motions over ASM land. Including anthropogenic aerosol emissions strongly masks MSE but enhances MCB via increased stability in the lower troposphere, resulting in an overall weakened ASM circulation with suppressed rainfall. Analyses of rainfall characteristics indicate that under GHG, overall precipitation efficiency over the ASM region is reduced, manifesting in less moderate but more extreme heavy rain events. Under combined effects of GHG and aerosols, precipitation efficiency is unchanged, with more moderate, but less extreme rainfall.

  16. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall over the South-West Coast of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Sarwar Hossain

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the spatial and temporal rainfall variability from the 1940s to 2007 in the south west coastal region of Bangladesh. Time series statistical tests were applied to examine the spatial and temporal trends in three time segments (1948–1970, 1971–1990 and 1991–2007 and four seasons (Pre-monsoon; Monsoon; Post-Monsoon and Winter, during the period 1948–2007. Eight weather stations were divided into two zones: exposed (exposed to sea and interior (distant to sea. Overall, rainfall increased during the period 1948–2007, while the trends intensified during post-1990s. Post-monsoon and winter rainfall was observed to follow significant positive trends at most weather stations during the time period 1948–2007. The rate of change was found in exposed zone and interior zone are +12.51 and +4.86 mm/year, respectively, over post monsoon and +0.9 and +1.86 mm/year, respectively, over winter. These trends intensified both in the exposed zone (+45.81 mm/year and the interior zone (+27.09 mm/year 1990 onwards. Winter rainfall does not exhibit significant change (p > 0.1 over the exterior or interior zone, though individual stations like Jessore, Satkhira and Bhola show significant negative trends after 1990s. Although the trends were observed to weaken in the monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons, they are not significant. Moreover, an 11-year cyclicity was found within these two seasons, whilst no cyclicity was observed in the post-monsoon and winter seasons. Sequential Mann Kendal test reveals that the changes in two zones rainfall trends are started around mid-80s, where step change found only for fours season in Khulna stations and also for winter seasons in all weather stations. These changes may have a detrimental effect on rain-fed agriculture in Bangladesh. The application of palaeo-environmental techniques, threshold determination and rainfall analysis across the whole country could be useful to support adaptation planning of

  17. Future projection of mean and variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon and Indian Ocean Climate systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Annamalai, H. [Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2014-09-15

    The overall goal of this project is to assess the ability of the CMIP3/5 models to simulate the Indian-Ocean monsoon systems. The PI along with post-docs investigated research issues ranging from synoptic systems to long-term trends over the Asian monsoon region. The PI applied diagnostic tools such as moist static energy (MSE) to isolate: the moist and radiative processes responsible for extended monsoon breaks over South Asia, precursors in the ENSO-monsoon association, reasons for the drying tendency over South Asia and the possible effect on tropical Indian Ocean climate anomalies influencing certain aspects of ENSO characteristics. By diagnosing various observations and coupled model simulations, we developed working hypothesis and tested them by carrying out sensitivity experiments with both linear and nonlinear models. Possible physical and dynamical reasons for model sensitivities were deduced. On the teleconnection front, the ability of CMIP5 models in representing the monsoon-desert mechanism was examined recently. Further more, we have applied a suite of diagnostics and have performed an in depth analysis on CMIP5 integrations to isolate the possible reasons for the ENSO-monsoon linkage or lack thereof. The PI has collaborated with Dr. K.R. Sperber of PCMDI and other CLIVAR Asian-Australian monsoon panel members in understanding the ability of CMIP3/5 models in capturing monsoon and its spectrum of variability. The objective and process-based diagnostics aided in selecting models that best represent the present-day monsoon and its variability that are then employed for future projections. Two major highlights were an invitation to write a review on present understanding monsoons in a changing climate in Nature Climate Change, and identification of an east-west shift in observed monsoon rainfall (more rainfall over tropical western Pacific and drying tendency over South Asia) in the last six decades and attributing that shift to SST rise over the tropical

  18. Rainfall characterisation by application of standardised precipitation index (SPI) in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Fadhilah; Hui-Mean, Foo; Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli; Ching-Yee, Kong

    2014-02-01

    The interpretations of trend behaviour for dry and wet events are analysed in order to verify the dryness and wetness episodes. The fitting distribution of rainfall is computed to classify the dry and wet events by applying the standardised precipitation index (SPI). The rainfall amount for each station is categorised into seven categories, namely extremely wet, severely wet, moderately wet, near normal, moderately dry, severely dry and extremely dry. The computation of the SPI is based on the monsoon periods, which include the northeast monsoon, southwest monsoon and inter-monsoon. The trends of the dry and wet periods were then detected using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the results indicate that the major parts of Peninsular Malaysia are characterised by increasing droughts rather than wet events. The annual trends of drought and wet events of the randomly selected stations from each region also yield similar results. Hence, the northwest and southwest regions are predicted to have a higher probability of drought occurrence during a dry event and not much rain during the wet event. The east and west regions, on the other hand, are going through a significant upward trend that implies lower rainfall during the drought episodes and heavy rainfall during the wet events.

  19. Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai, India: Is ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Jitendra Singh

    Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of. 2005 Mumbai ...

  20. Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai, India: Is ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai ...

  1. Southern Indian Ocean SST as a modulator for the progression of Indian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahi, Namendra Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Mishra, Nishant

    2018-01-01

    This study explores the possibility of southern Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) as a modulator for the early phase of Indian summer monsoon and its possible physical mechanism. A dipole-like structure is obtained from the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis which is similar to an Indian Ocean subtropical dipole (IOSD) found earlier. A subtropical dipole index (SDI) is defined based on the SST anomaly over the positive and negative poles. The regression map of rainfall over India in the month of June corresponding to the SDI during 1983-2013 shows negative patterns along the Western Ghats and Central India. However, the regression pattern is insignificant during 1952-1982. The multiple linear regression models and partial correlation analysis also indicate that the SDI acts as a dominant factor to influence the rainfall over India in the month of June during 1983-2013. The similar result is also obtained with the help of composite rainfall over the land points of India in the month of June for positive (negative) SDI events. It is also observed that the positive (negative) SDI delays (early) the onset dates of Indian monsoon over Kerala during the time domain of our study. The study is further extended to identify the physical mechanism of this impact, and it is found that the heating (cooling) in the region covering SDI changes the circulation pattern in the SIO and hence impacts the progression of monsoon in India.

  2. Aerosol-weakened summer monsoons decrease lake fertilization on the Chinese Loess Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jianbao; Rühland, Kathleen M.; Chen, Jianhui; Xu, Yangyang; Chen, Shengqian; Chen, Qiaomei; Huang, Wei; Xu, Qinghai; Chen, Fahu; Smol, John P.

    2017-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosol increases over the past few decades have weakened the Asian summer monsoon with potentially far-reaching socio-economic and ecological repercussions. However, it is unknown how these changes will affect freshwater ecosystems that are important to densely populated regions of Asia. High-resolution diatom records and other proxy data archived in lake sediment cores from the Chinese Loess Plateau allow the comparison of summer monsoon intensity, lake trophic status and aquatic ecosystem responses during warming periods over the past two millennia. Here we show that an abrupt shift towards eutrophic limnological conditions coincided with historical warming episodes, marked by increased wind intensity and summer monsoon rainfall leading to phosphorus-laden soil erosion and natural lake fertilization. In contrast, aerosol-affected Anthropocene warming catalysed a marked weakening in summer monsoon intensity leading to decreases in soil erosion and lake mixing. The recent warm period triggered a strikingly different aquatic ecosystem response with a limnological regime shift marked by turnover in diatom species composition now dominated by oligotrophic taxa, consistent with reductions in nutrient fertilization, reduced ice cover and increased thermal stratification. Anthropogenic aerosols have altered climate-monsoon dynamics that are unparalleled in the past ~2,000 years, ushering in a new ecological state.

  3. Pollen evidence for a mid-Holocene East Asian summer monsoon maximum in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Ruilin; Xiao, Jule; Fan, Jiawei; Zhang, Shengrui; Yamagata, Hideki

    2017-11-01

    There is a controversy regarding whether the high precipitation delivered by an intensified East Asian summer monsoon occurred during the early Holocene, or during the middle Holocene, especially in the context of the monsoonal margin region. The conflicting views on the subject may be caused by chronological uncertainties and ambiguities in the interpretation of different climate proxies measured in different sedimentary sequences. Here, we present a detailed record of the Holocene evolution of vegetation in northern China based on a high-resolution pollen record from Dali Lake, located near the modern summer monsoon limit. From 12,000-8300 cal BP, the sandy land landscape changed from desert to open elm forest and shrubland, while dry steppe dominated the hilly lands and patches of birch forest developed in the mountains. Between 8300 and 6000 cal BP, elm forest was extensively distributed in the sandy lands, while typical steppe covered the hilly lands and mixed coniferous-broadleaved forests expanded in the mountains. Our pollen evidence contradicts the view that the monsoonal rainfall increased during the early Holocene; rather, it indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon did not become intensified until ∼8000 cal BP in northern China. The low precipitation during the early Holocene can be attributed to the boundary conditions, i.e., to the remnant high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the relatively low global sea level.

  4. A solar (irradiance) trigger for millennial-scale abrupt changes in the southwest monsoon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higginson, Matthew J.; Altabet, Mark A.; Wincze, Lauren; Herbert, Timothy D.; Murray, David W.

    2004-09-01

    Marine sedimentary records of the last glacial from tropical monsoon latitudes indicate climate fluctuations comparable to rapid changes in δ18O recorded in Greenland. Synchronizing two high-resolution sedimentary records from the Oman and Pakistan margins, we resolve millennial-scale reversals in sea surface temperature (SST) gradient (ΔSST) across the Arabian Sea which directly correspond with the majority of Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events for the last 65 kyr. The relative amplitude of individual monsoon and D-O events appears comparable, suggesting coupled and at least hemispheric forcing. To explore this quasi-cyclic forcing, we compare alkenone-based geologic data with modern satellite-derived ΔSST estimates between sites. Interstadial conditions fall within the range of monsoons during the Holocene, but stadial conditions have no analogs. Following published associations between Eurasian Winter Snow Cover (EWSC) and monsoon rainfall, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and anomalous EWSC, we find a good correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Arabian Sea ΔSST throughout the modern data set. An apparent 11-year cyclicity in the SOI reveals an association between the monsoon, SOI, and solar output variability. The SOI primarily tracks solar total irradiance, but the SOI monsoon linkage becomes nonlinear during excursions of the SOI associated with El Niño Events. Strong El Niños coincide precisely with minimum solar irradiance during the solar cycle, which we attribute to threshold behavior in tropical Pacific SSTs and associated trade wind strength. We propose that both short-term (interannual-decadal) and long-term (centennial-millennial) changes in solar output are consistent with records of ENSO variability, monsoon intensity, and D-O event timing.

  5. Analysis of Spatial Characteristics of Rainfall for Optimal Observation Network in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sojung; Lee, Ebony; Park, Seon Ki; Park, Yunho; Lee, Jeung Whan

    2017-04-01

    Accurate prediction of high impact weather phenomena can reduce damages to people as well as property. Among the meteorological disasters occurred in Korea, heavy rainfall causes the second largest damage, next to typhoons. Therefore, proper observation network of rainfall is important for better understanding of the rainfall characteristics and for more accurate rainfall forecast over Korea. Precipitating weather systems in Korea are highly influenced by East Asian Monsoon, hence they have not only high seasonal variation in rainfall, but also high spatial variation due to complex topographic characteristics. In this study, we identify the spatial characteristics of rainfall in Korea with the geostatistical analyses, including autocorrelogram, variogram, Moran's I, and general G. We develop a testbed system to design an appropriate observation network for rainfall, which can be applied to other high impact weather systems. Geostatistical analyses are conducted using data sets collected from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS; 600 rain gauge data), global/regional numerical weather prediction outputs (i.e., temperature, geopotential height and humidity), Himawari satellite measurements (i.e., water vapor) over Korea in a period of 2013 - 2015. A heavy rainfall is defined as a case with the rainfall rate larger than 80 mm/24 hr over at least one station. In order to consider different characteristics of heavy rainfall systems, we have classified them into several groups: isolated thunderstorms, convective bands, squall lines, cloud clusters, migratory cyclones, typhoons, Changma (monsoon) frontal systems, and showers. We also perform the spatial analyses of rainfall by dividing Korea into several areas based on topographic characteristics. Our results show different properties for different heavy rainfall systems in terms of correlation distances, separation distances, clustered vs. random patterns, and hot vs. cold spots; thus suggesting clues for optimal observation

  6. Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chee Loong Wong

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

  7. Summer climate of Madagascar and monsoon pulsing of its vortex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2016-02-01

    This study analyzes the climate of Madagascar (12°-26°S, 43°-50°E) and its relation to the Indian Ocean during austral summer (Dec-Mar). Moisture converges onto a standing easterly wave and floods are prevalent in late summer. All-island daytime land temperatures exceed 38 °C in October and are ~4 °C above sea temperatures during summer. Analysis of thermally induced diurnal convection and circulation revealed inflow during the afternoon recirculated from the southeastern mountains and the warm Mozambique Channel. Summer rainfall follows latent and sensible heat flux during the first half of the day, and gains a surplus by evening via thunderstorms over the western plains. At the inter-annual time-scale, 2.3 years oscillations in all-island rainfall appear linked with the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation and corresponding 80 Dobson Unit ozone fluctuations during flood events. Wet spells at frequencies from 11-27 days derive from locally-formed tropical cyclones and NW-cloud bands. Flood case studies exhibit moisture recycling in the confluence zone between the sub-tropical anticyclone and the lee-side vortex. Hovmoller analysis of daily rainfall reinforces the concept of local generation and pulsing by cross-equatorial (Indian winter) monsoon flow rather than zonal atmospheric waves. Since the surface water budget is critical to agriculture in Madagascar, this study represents a further step to understand its meso-scale summer climate.

  8. Progress Towards Achieving the Challenge of Indian Summer Monsoon Climate Simulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Pokhrel, Samir; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-10-01

    Simulation of the spatial and temporal structure of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs), which have effects on the seasonal mean and annual cycle of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, remains a grand challenge for the state-of-the-art global coupled models. Biases in simulation of the amplitude and northward propagation of MISOs and related dry rainfall bias over ISM region in climate models are limiting the current skill of monsoon prediction. Recent observations indicate that the convective microphysics of clouds may be critical in simulating the observed MISOs. The hypothesis is strongly supported by high fidelity in simulation of the amplitude and space-time spectra of MISO by a coupled climate model, when our physically based modified cloud microphysics scheme is implemented in conjunction with a modified new Simple Arakawa Schubert (nSAS) convective parameterization scheme. Improved simulation of MISOs appears to have been aided by much improved simulation of the observed high cloud fraction and convective to stratiform rain fractions and resulted into a much improved simulation of the ISM rainfall, monsoon onset, and the annual cycle.

  9. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  10. Mean of the top ten percent of NDVI values in the Yuma Proving Ground during monsoon season, 1986-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birtwistle, Amy N; Laituri, Melinda J.; Bledsoe, Brian P.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

    2016-01-01

    This study uses growth in vegetation during the monsoon season measured from LANDSAT imagery as a proxy for measured rainfall. NDVI values from 26 years of pre- and post-monsoon season Landsat imagery were derived across Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) in southwestern Arizona, USA. The LANDSAT imagery (1986-2011) was downloaded from USGS’s GlobeVis website (http://glovis.usgs.gov/). Change in NDVI was calculated within a set of 2,843 Riparian Area Polygons (RAPs) up to 1 km in length defined in ESRI ArcMap 10.2.

  11. Structured teleconnections reveal the South American monsoon onset: A network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciemer, Catrin; Ekhtiari, Nikoo; Barbosa, Henrique; Boers, Niklas; Donner, Reik; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2017-04-01

    The regional onset dates of the global monsoon systems are, to first order, determined by the seasonal shift of the intertropical convergence zone. However, precise onset dates vary substantially from year to year due to the complexity of the involved mechanisms. In this study, we investigate processes determining the onset of the South American monsoon system (SAMS). In recent years, a trend towards later onset dates of the SAMS has been observed. A later onset of the monsoon can have severe impacts on agriculture and infrastructure such as farming, water transport routes, and the stability of the Amazon rainforest in the long term. Possible reasons for this shift involve a multitude of climatic phenomena and variables relevant for the SAMS. To account for the highly interactive nature of the SAMS, we here investigate it with the help of complex networks. By studying the temporal changes of the correlation structure in spatial rainfall networks, we are able to determine coherent areas of similar precipitation patterns, spot teleconnections in terms of strongly correlated areas, detect key regions for precipitation correlations, and finally reveal the monsoon onset by an abrupt shift from an unordered to an ordered correlation structure of the network. To further evaluate the shift in the monsoon onset, we couple our rainfall network to a network of climate networks using sea surface temperature as a second variable. We are thereby able to emphasize oceanic regions that are particularly important for the SAMS and anticipate the influence of future changes of sea-surface temperature on the SAMS.

  12. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  13. Logit-normal mixed model for Indian monsoon precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, L. R.; Chatterjee, S.

    2014-09-01

    Describing the nature and variability of Indian monsoon precipitation is a topic of much debate in the current literature. We suggest the use of a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), specifically, the logit-normal mixed model, to describe the underlying structure of this complex climatic event. Four GLMM algorithms are described and simulations are performed to vet these algorithms before applying them to the Indian precipitation data. The logit-normal model was applied to light, moderate, and extreme rainfall. Findings indicated that physical constructs were preserved by the models, and random effects were significant in many cases. We also found GLMM estimation methods were sensitive to tuning parameters and assumptions and therefore, recommend use of multiple methods in applications. This work provides a novel use of GLMM and promotes its addition to the gamut of tools for analysis in studying climate phenomena.

  14. Climate change impacts on rainfall and temperature in sugarcane growing Upper Gangetic Plains of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Ram Ratan; Srivastava, Tapendra Kumar; Singh, Pushpa

    2018-01-01

    Assessment of variability in climate extremes is crucial for managing their aftermath on crops. Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), a major C4 crop, dominates the Upper Gangetic Plain (UGP) in India and is vulnerable to both direct and indirect effects of changes in temperature and rainfall. The present study was taken up to assess the weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual trends of rainfall and temperature variability during the period 1956-2015 (60 years) for envisaging the probabilities of different levels of rainfall suitable for sugarcane in UGP in the present climate scenario. The analysis revealed that 87% of total annual rainfall was received during southwest monsoon months (June-September) while post-monsoon (October to February) and pre-monsoon months (March-May) accounted for only 9.4 and 3.6%, respectively. There was a decline in both monthly and annual normal rainfall during the period 1986-2015 as compared to 1956-1985, and an annual rainfall deficiency of 205.3 mm was recorded. Maximum monthly normal rainfall deficiencies of 52.8, 84.2, and 54.0 mm were recorded during the months of July, August, and September, respectively, while a minimum rainfall deficiency of 2.2 mm was observed in November. There was a decline by 196.3 mm in seasonal normal rainfall during June-September (kharif). The initial probability of a week going dry was higher (> 70%) from the 1st to the 25th week; however, standard meteorological weeks (SMW) 26 to 37 had more than 50% probability of going wet. The normal annual maximum temperature (Tmax) decreased by 0.4 °C while normal annual minimum temperatures (Tmin) increased by 0.21 °C. Analysis showed that there was an increase in frequency of drought from 1986 onwards in the zone and a monsoon rainfall deficit by about 21.25% during June-September which coincided with tillering and grand growth stage of sugarcane. The imposed drought during the growth and elongation phase is emerging as a major constraint in realizing high

  15. Impact of aerosols and cloud parameters on Indian summer monsoon rain at intraseasonal scale: a diagnostic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Thomas, Litty; Kumar, K. Kishore

    2017-01-01

    Aerosol and cloud parameters are known to be the influencing factors of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability at interannual and intraseasonal scales. In this study, we investigate the impact of remotely sensed aerosol optical depth and associated parameters (cloud fraction, cloud optical depth, cloud effective radii, cloud top pressure, and single-scattering albedo) on the individual active (break) spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season. Active and break spells are identified using satellite-derived data sets over the central Indian (CI) region. The present analysis suggests that the CI region is loaded with higher aerosol concentration and that rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with aerosol optical depth (significant at 1 % significance level) over CI. Contrary to the composite-based previous studies, it has been observed that the aerosol loading and cloud properties are considerably different during the individual active and break events. For break events, composite representation shows that aerosols are stacked along the Himalayan region while all individual break events do not portray this type of aerosol dispensation. It appears from the present analysis that the aerosols may impact the intraseasonal variability of ISMR through its indirect effect by altering the cloud properties and consequently the rainfall. Therefore, aerosols are supposed to be a regional contributor in affecting the intraseasonal variability of summer monsoon rainfall.

  16. Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, A. G.; Bhat, G. S.; Evans, J. G.; Madan, R.; Marsham, J. H.; Martin, G.; Mitra, A. K.; Mrudula, G.; Parker, D. J.; Pattnaik, S.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Taylor, C.; Tripathi, S. N.

    2016-12-01

    INCOMPASS will build on a field and aircraft measurement campaign from the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. This presentation will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles together with detailed

  17. Co-evolution of monsoonal precipitation in East Asia and the tropical Pacific ENSO system since 2.36 Ma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhaojie

    2017-04-01

    Clay mineralogical analysis and scanning electron microscope (SEM) analysis were performed on deep-sea sediments cored on the Benham Rise (core MD06-3050) in order to reconstruct long-term evolution of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) rainfall in the period since 2.36 Ma. Clay mineralogical variations are due to changes in the ratios of smectite, which derive from weathering of volcanic rocks in Luzon Island during intervals of intensive monsoon rainfall, and illite- and chlorite-rich dusts, which are transported from East Asia by winds associated with the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM). Since Luzon is the main source of smectite to the Benham Rise, long-term consistent variations in the smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio in core MD06-3050 as well as ODP site 1146 in the Northern South China Sea suggest that minor contributions of eolian dust played a role in the variability of this mineralogical ratio and indicate strengthening EASM precipitation in SE Asia during time intervals from 2360 to 1900 kyr, 1200 to 600 kyr, and after 200 kyr. The EASM rainfall record displays a 30 kyr periodicity suggesting the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These intervals of rainfall intensification on Luzon Island are coeval with a reduction in precipitation over central China and an increase in zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, implying a reinforcement of La Niña-like conditions. In contrast, periods of reduced rainfall on Luzon Island are associated with higher precipitation in central China and a weakening zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, thereby suggesting the development of dominant El Niño-like conditions. Our study, therefore, highlights for the first time a long-term temporal and spatial co-evolution of monsoonal precipitation in East Asia and of the tropical Pacific ENSO system over the past 2.36 Ma.

  18. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhanqing; Lau, W. K.-M.; Ramanathan, V.; Wu, G.; Ding, Y.; Manoj, M. G.; Liu, J.; Qian, Y.; Li, J.; Zhou, T.; Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Ming, Y.; Wang, Y.; Huang, J.; Wang, B.; Xu, X.; Lee, S.-S.; Cribb, M.; Zhang, F.; Yang, X.; Zhao, C.; Takemura, T.; Wang, K.; Xia, X.; Yin, Y.; Zhang, H.; Guo, J.; Zhai, P. M.; Sugimoto, N.; Babu, S. S.; Brasseur, G. P.

    2016-12-01

    The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from

  19. Characteristics of monsoon inversions over the Arabian Sea observed by satellite sounder and reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dwivedi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Monsoon inversion (MI over the Arabian Sea (AS is one of the important characteristics associated with the monsoon activity over Indian region during summer monsoon season. In the present study, we have used 5 years (2009–2013 of temperature and water vapour measurement data obtained from satellite sounder instrument, an Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI onboard MetOp satellite, in addition to ERA-Interim data, to study their characteristics. The lower atmospheric data over the AS have been examined first to identify the areas where MIs are predominant and occur with higher strength. Based on this information, a detailed study has been made to investigate their characteristics separately in the eastern AS (EAS and western AS (WAS to examine their contrasting features. The initiation and dissipation times of MIs, their percentage occurrence, strength, etc., has been examined using the huge database. The relation with monsoon activity (rainfall over Indian region during normal and poor monsoon years is also studied. WAS ΔT values are  ∼  2 K less than those over the EAS, ΔT being the temperature difference between 950 and 850 hPa. A much larger contrast between the WAS and EAS in ΔT is noticed in ERA-Interim data set vis-à-vis those observed by satellites. The possibility of detecting MI from another parameter, refractivity N, obtained directly from another satellite constellation of GPS Radio Occultation (RO (COSMIC, has also been examined. MI detected from IASI and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS onboard the NOAA satellite have been compared to see how far the two data sets can be combined to study the MI characteristics. We suggest MI could also be included as one of the semipermanent features of southwest monsoon along with the presently accepted six parameters.

  20. Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Z.; Kutzbach, J. [Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Harrison, S.P. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 100164, 07701 Jena (Germany); Otto-Bliesner, B. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States)

    2004-03-01

    The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations. (orig.)

  1. Changing Pattern of Indian Monsoon Extremes: Global and Local Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Shastri, Hiteshri; Pathak, Amey; Paul, Supantha

    2017-04-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes have remained a major topic of discussion in the field of global change and hydro-climatology over the last decade. This attributes to multiple conclusions on changing pattern of extremes along with poor understanding of multiple processes at global and local scales associated with monsoon extremes. At a spatially aggregate scale, when number of extremes in the grids are summed over, a statistically significant increasing trend is observed for both Central India (Goswami et al., 2006) and all India (Rajeevan et al., 2008). However, such a result over Central India does not satisfy flied significance test of increase and no decrease (Krishnamurthy et al., 2009). Statistically rigorous extreme value analysis that deals with the tail of the distribution reveals a spatially non-uniform trend of extremes over India (Ghosh et al., 2012). This results into statistically significant increasing trend of spatial variability. Such an increase of spatial variability points to the importance of local factors such as deforestation and urbanization. We hypothesize that increase of spatial average of extremes is associated with the increase of events occurring over large region, while increase in spatial variability attributes to local factors. A Lagrangian approach based dynamic recycling model reveals that the major contributor of moisture to wide spread extremes is Western Indian Ocean, while land surface also contributes around 25-30% of moisture during the extremes in Central India. We further test the impacts of local urbanization on extremes and find the impacts are more visible over West central, Southern and North East India. Regional atmospheric simulations coupled with Urban Canopy Model (UCM) shows that urbanization intensifies extremes in city areas, but not uniformly all over the city. The intensification occurs over specific pockets of the urban region, resulting an increase in spatial variability even within the city

  2. A lidar study of atmospheric aerosols during two contrasting monsoon seasons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devara, P.C.S.; Raj, P.E. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (India)

    1998-10-01

    The vertical profiles of the boundary-layer aerosols obtained with a bistatic argon ion lidar system at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India, during two contrasting, successive south-west (summer) monsoon seasons of 1987 (weak monsoon year) and 1988 (active monsoon year) have been examined. The concurrent meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity and rainfall over Pune have also been studied. It is noticed that the aerosol columnar content (integration of vertical profile throughout the height range) is greater during the active monsoon months and less during the weak monsoon months. Thus the monsoon season total rainfall during 1987 and 1988, apart from other meteorological parameters, shows close correspondence with the aerosol columnar content over the experimental station. A brief description of the lidar experimental setup and the database is given. The observed association between the aerosol columnar content and the monsoon activity is explained in terms of the environmental and meteorological conditions prevailing over Pune. [Spanish] Los perfiles verticales de los aerosoles de la capa fronteriza obtenidos mediante un sistema de Lidar biestatico de iones de argon en el Instituto de Meteorologia Tropical (IITM) en Pune, India, durante dos estaciones contrastantes y suscesivas del monzon del SW (verano) de 1987 (ano de monzon debil) y 1988 (ano activo de monzon) han sido estudiados. Los parametros meteorologicos concurrentes tales como temperatura, humedad relativa y lluvia en Pune, han sido tambien estudiados. Se observa que el contenido columnar de aerosoles (integracion del perfil vertical en toda la gama de alturas) es mayor durante los meses del monzon activo y menor en los meses del monzon debil. De manera que, el total de la lluvia monzonica durante 1987 y 1988, aparte de otros parametros meteorologicos, muestran una correspondencia intima con el contenido columnar de a erosoles sobre la estacion

  3. Variations of Indian monsoon precipitation during the last 32 kyr reflected in the surface hydrography of the Western Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Govil, P.; Naidu, P.D.

    Hydrography of the Bay of Bengal is highly influenced by the river runoff and rainfall during the southwest monsoon. We have reconstructed delta sup(18)Osw, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the Bay of Bengal by using...

  4. Interrelationship of rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration trends and their net response to the climate change in Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Sananda; Khare, Deepak; Mondal, Arun

    2017-11-01

    The monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 and maximum and minimum temperature data from 1901 to 2005 are used along with the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) to analyze the climate trend of 45 stations of Madhya Pradesh. ET0 is calculated by the Hargreaves method from 1901 to 2005 and the computed data is then used for trend analysis. The temporal variation and the spatial distribution of trend are studied for seasonal and annual series with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's estimator of slope. The percentage of change is used to find the rate of change in 111 years (rainfall) and 105 years (temperatures and ET0). Interrelationships among these variables are analyzed to see the dependency of one variable on the other. The results indicate a decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and ET0 trend. A similar pattern is noticeable in all seasons except for monsoon season in temperature and ET0 trend analysis. The highest increase of temperature is noticed during post-monsoon and winter. Rainfall shows a notable decrease in the monsoon season. The entire state of Madhya Pradesh is considered as a single unit, and the calculation of overall net change in the amount of the rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum) and ET0 is done to estimate the total loss or gain in monthly, seasonal and annual series. The results show net loss or deficit in the amount of rainfall and the net gain or excess in the temperature and ET0 amount.

  5. Rainfall and crop modeling-based water stress assessment for rainfed maize cultivation in peninsular India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manivasagam, V. S.; Nagarajan, R.

    2017-03-01

    Water stress due to uneven rainfall distribution causes a significant impact on the agricultural production of monsoon-dependent peninsular India. In the present study, water stress assessment for rainfed maize crop is carried out for kharif (June-October) and rabi (October-February) cropping seasons which coincide with two major Indian monsoons. Rainfall analysis (1976-2010) shows that the kharif season receives sufficient weekly rainfall (28 ± 32 mm) during 26th-39th standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) from southwest monsoon, whereas the rabi season experiences a major portion of its weekly rainfall due to northeast monsoon between the 42nd and 51st SMW (31 ± 42 mm). The later weeks experience minimal rainfall (5.5 ± 15 mm) and thus expose the late sown maize crops to a severe water stress during its maturity stage. Wet and dry spell analyses reveal a substantial increase in the rainfall intensity over the last few decades. However, the distribution of rainfall shows a striking decrease in the number of wet spells, with prolonged dry spells in both seasons. Weekly rainfall classification shows that the flowering and maturity stages of kharif maize (33rd-39th SMWs) can suffer around 30-40% of the total water stress. In the case of rabi maize, the analysis reveals that a shift in the sowing time from the existing 42nd SMW (16-22 October) to the 40th SMW (1-7 October) can avoid terminal water stress. Further, AquaCrop modeling results show that one or two minimal irrigations during the flowering and maturity stages (33rd-39th SMWs) of kharif maize positively avoid the mild water stress exposure. Similarly, rabi maize requires an additional two or three lifesaving irrigations during its flowering and maturity stages (48th-53rd SMWs) to improve productivity. Effective crop planning with appropriate sowing time, short duration crop, and high yielding drought-resistant varieties will allow for better utilization of the monsoon rain, thus reducing water stress with

  6. Assessment of landslide hazards induced by extreme rainfall event in Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, northwest India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Amit; Asthana, AKL; Priyanka, Rao Singh; Jayangondaperumal, R.; Gupta, Anil K.; Bhakuni, SS

    2017-05-01

    In the Indian Himalayan region (IHR), landslide-driven hazards have intensified over the past several decades primarily caused by the occurrence of heavy and extreme rainfall. However, little attention has been given to determining the cause of events triggered during pre- and post-Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) seasons. In the present research, detailed geological, meteorological, and remote sensing investigations have been carried out on an extreme rainfall landslide event that occurred in Sadal village, Udhampur district, Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, during September 2014. Toward the receding phase of the ISM (i.e., in the month of September 2014), an unusual rainfall event of 488.2 mm rainfall in 24 h took place in Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya in contrast to the normal rainfall occurrence. Geological investigations suggest that a planar weakness in the affected region is caused by bedding planes that consist of an alternate sequence of hard, compact sandstone and weak claystone. During this extreme rainfall event, the Sadal village was completely buried under the rock slides, as failure occurred along the planar weakness that dips toward the valley slope. Rainfall data analysis from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) for the preceding years homogeneous time series (July-September) indicates that the years 2005, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2014 (i.e., closely spaced and clustering heavy rainfall events) received heavy rainfalls during the withdrawal of the ISM; whereas the heaviest rainfall was received in the years 2003 and 2013 at the onset of the ISM in the study region. This suggests that no characteristic cyclicity exists for extreme rainfall events. However, we observe that either toward the onset of the ISM or its retreat, the extreme rainfall facilitates landslides, rockfall, and slope failures in northwestern Himalaya. The spatiotemporal distribution of landslides caused by extreme rainfall events suggests its confinement toward the windward side of the

  7. Two millennia of Mesoamerican monsoon variability driven by Pacific and Atlantic synergistic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachniet, Matthew S.; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor; Bernal, Juan Pablo

    2017-01-01

    The drivers of Mesoamerican monsoon variability over the last two millennia remain poorly known because of a lack of precisely-dated and climate-calibrated proxy records. Here, we present a new high resolution (∼2 yrs) and precisely-dated (± 4 yr) wet season hydroclimate reconstruction for the Mesoamerican sector of the North American Monsoon over the past 2250 years based on two aragonite stalagmites from southwestern Mexico which replicate oxygen isotope variations over the 950-1950 CE interval. The reconstruction is quantitatively calibrated to instrumental rainfall variations in the Basin of Mexico. Comparisons to proxy indices of ocean-atmosphere circulation show a synergistic forcing by the North Atlantic and El Niño/Southern Oscillations, whereby monsoon strengthening coincided with a La Niña-like mode and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, and vice versa for droughts. Our data suggest that weak monsoon intervals are associated with a strong North Atlantic subtropical high pressure system and a weak Intertropical convergence zone in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Population expansions at three major highland Mexico civilization of Teotihuacan, Tula, and Aztec Tenochtitlan were all associated with drought to pluvial transitions, suggesting that urban population growth was favored by increasing freshwater availability in the semi-arid Mexican highlands, and that this hydroclimatic change was controlled by Pacific and Atlantic Ocean forcing.

  8. Atlantic and Pacific Ocean synergistic forcing of the Mesomerican monsoon over the last two millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.; Bernal, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    We present a new replicated, high resolution (~2 yrs) and precisely-dated (± 4 yr) wet season hydroclimate reconstruction for the Mesoamerican sector of the North American Monsoon over the past 2250 years. Our new reconstruction is based on two aragonite stalagmites from southwestern Mexico which replicate oxygen isotope variations over the 950-1950 CE interval, and are calibrated to instrumental rainfall variations in the Basin of Mexico. Such data complement existing dendroclimatic reconstructions of early wet season and winter drought severity. Comparisons to indices of ocean-atmosphere circulation show a combined forcing by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Monsoon strengthening coincided with synergistic forcing of a La Niña-like mode and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, and vice versa for droughts. Although drought is commonly invoked as an stressor leading to societal change, the role of intensified monsoon onto cultural development is rarely explored. We observe that prominent transitions from drought to pluvial conditions are associated with population increases in three of the major highland Mexico civilizations of Teotihuacan, Tula Grande, and the Aztecs. These data suggest a role for ocean-atmosphere dynamics arising from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans on Mesoamerican monsoon strength.

  9. Monsoon triggered formation of Quaternary alluvial megafans in the interior of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blechschmidt, Ingo; Matter, Albert; Preusser, Frank; Rieke-Zapp, Dirk

    2009-09-01

    A vast bajada consisting of coalescing low-gradient (age termed Barzaman Formation, diagenetically highly altered to dolomitic clays, and a thin veneer of weakly cemented Quaternary gravels. A combination of remote sensing, lithological analyses and luminescence dating is used to interpret the complex aggradation history of the Quaternary alluvial fans from the interior of Oman in the context of independent regional climate records. From satellite imagery and clast analysis four fans can be discerned in the study area. While two early periods of fan formation are tentatively correlated to the Miocene-Pliocene and the Early Pleistocene, luminescence dating allows the distinction of five phases of fan aggradation during the Middle-Late Pleistocene. These phases are correlated with pluvial periods from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 through 3, when southern Arabia was affected by monsoonal precipitation. It is concluded that the aggradation of the alluvial fans was triggered by the interplay of increased sediment production during arid periods and high rainfall with enhanced erosion of hillslopes and transport rates during strong monsoon phases. However, the lack of fine-grained sediments, bioturbation and organic material implies that although the Quaternary fans are sourced by monsoonal rains they formed in a semi-arid environment. Thus, it appears that, in contrast to the Oman Mountains, the interior was not directly affected by monsoonal precipitation.

  10. Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of southern Taiwan in relation to monsoons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jing-O; Ko, Fung-Chi; Lee, Chon-Lin; Fang, Meng-Der

    2016-08-01

    The concentrations and gas-particle partitioning of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were intensively measured in the Hengchun Peninsula of southern Taiwan. The concentrations of total PAH (Σ38PAH), including gas and particle phases, ranged from 0.85 to 4.40 ng m(-3). No significant differences in the PAH levels and patterns were found between the samples taken at day and at night. The gas phase PAH concentrations were constant year-round, but the highest levels of particle-associated PAHs were found during the northeast monsoon season. Long-range transport and rainfall scavenging mechanisms contributed to the elevated levels in aerosols andΣ38PAH concentrations. Results from principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that the major sources of PAHs in this study were vehicular emissions. The back trajectories demonstrated that air mass movement driven by the monsoon system was the main influence on atmospheric PAH profiles and concentrations in the rural region of southern Taiwan. Gas-particle partition coefficients (K p ) of PAHs were well-correlated with sub-cooled liquid vapor pressures (P (o) L ) and demonstrated significant seasonal variation between the northeast (NE) and the southwest (SW) monsoon seasons. This study sheds light on the role of Asian monsoons regarding the atmospheric transport of PAHs.

  11. Factors controlling January-April rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vialard, J. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), CNRS, IRD, Paris (France); National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa (India); Terray, P. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), CNRS, IRD, Paris (France); Duvel, J.P. [CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris (France); Nanjundiah, R.S. [IISc, Center of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India); Shenoi, S.S.C. [Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad (India); Shankar, D. [National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa (India)

    2011-08-15

    Most of the annual rainfall over India occurs during the Southwest (June-September) and Northeast (October-December) monsoon periods. In March 2008, however, Southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka received the largest rainfall anomaly on record since 1979, with amplitude comparable to summer-monsoon interannual anomalies. This anomalous rainfall appeared to be modulated at intraseasonal timescale by the Madden Julian Oscillation, and was synchronous with a decaying La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean. Was this a coincidence or indicative of a teleconnection pattern? In this paper, we explore factors controlling rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka between January and April, i.e. outside of the southwest and northeast monsoons. This period accounts for 20% of annual precipitation over Sri Lanka and 10% over the southern Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Interannual variability is strong (about 40% of the January-April climatology). Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over southern India and Sri Lanka are significantly associated with equatorial eastward propagation, characteristic of the Madden Julian Oscillation. At the interannual timescale, we find a clear connection with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); with El Ninos being associated with decreased rainfall (correlation of -0.46 significant at the 98% level). There is also a significant link with local SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, and in particular with the inter-hemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Indian Ocean (with colder SST south of the equator being conducive to more rainfall, correlation of 0.55 significant at the 99% level). La Ninas/cold SSTs south of the equator tend to have a larger impact than El Ninos. We discuss two possible mechanisms that could explain these statistical relationships: (1) subsidence over southern India remotely forced by Pacific SST anomalies; (2) impact of ENSO-forced regional Indian Ocean SST anomalies on convection. However, the

  12. Association of Taiwan’s Rainfall Patterns with Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chun Kuo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A 50-year (1960–2009 monthly rainfall gridded dataset produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project was presented in this study. The gridded data (5 × 5 km displayed influence of topography on spatial variability of rainfall, and the results of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs analysis revealed the patterns associated with the large-scale sea surface temperature variability over Pacific. The first mode (65% revealed the annual peaks of large rainfall in the southwestern mountainous area, which is associated with southwest monsoons and typhoons during summertime. The second temporal EOF mode (16% revealed the rainfall variance associated with the monsoon and its interaction with the slopes of the mountain range. This pattern is the major contributor to spatial variance of rainfall in Taiwan, as indicated by the first mode (40% of spatial variance EOF analysis. The second temporal EOF mode correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. In particular, during the autumn of the La Niña years following the strong El Niño years, the time-varying amplitude was substantially greater than that of normal years. The third temporal EOF mode (7% revealed a north-south out-of-phase rainfall pattern, the slowly evolving variations of which were in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Because of Taiwan’s geographic location and the effect of local terrestrial structures, climate variability related to ENSO differed markedly from other regions in East Asia.

  13. Weakening and Shifting of the Saharan Heat Low Circulation During Wet Years of the West African Monsoon

    CERN Document Server

    Shekhar, Ravi

    2016-01-01

    The correlation between increased West African monsoon rainfall and anomalously low surface pressure over the Sahara is well established in observations and global climate models, and has been interpreted as a strengthening of the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) during wet monsoon years. This study uses two atmospheric reanalysis datasets to examine interannual variability of Sahel rainfall and the shallow Saharan Heat Low circulation, which consists of the near surface SHL and the Saharan High in the lower mid-troposphere. During wet Sahel years, the SHL circulation shifts poleward, producing a drop in low-level geopotential height and surface pressure over the Sahara. Statistically removing the effect of the poleward shift from the low-level geopotential eliminates significant correlations between this geopotential and Sahel precipitation. As the SHL circulation shifts poleward, its mid-tropospheric divergent outflow decreases, indicating a weakening of its overturning mass flux. The poleward shift and weakening of ...

  14. On the spatial coherence of rainfall over the Saloum delta (Senegal from seasonal to decadal time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malick eWADE

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A paleoreconstruction of the length and intensity of the rainy season over western Africa has been recently proposed, using analysis of fossil mollusk shells from the Saloum delta region, in western Senegal. In order to evaluate the significance of local long-term reconstructions of precipitations from paleoclimate proxies, and to better characterize the spatial homogeneity of rainfall distribution in northern Africa, we analyze here the spatial representativeness of rainfall in this region, from seasonal to decadal timescales. The spatial coherence of winter episodic rainfall events is relatively low and limited to surrounding countries. On the other hand, the summer rainfall, associated with the West African Monsoon, shows extended spatial coherence. At seasonal timescales, local rainfall over the Saloum is significantly correlated with rainfall in the whole western half of the Sahel. At interannual and longer timescales, the spatial coherence extends as far as the Red Sea, covering the full Sahel region. This spatial coherence is mainly associated to the zonal extension of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Coherently, summer rainfalls appear to be driven by SST anomalies mainly in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean basin, and the North Pacific. A more detailed analysis shows that consistency of the spatial rainfall coherence is reduced during the onset season of the West African Monsoon.

  15. Correcting rainfall using satellite-based surface soil moisture retrievals: The Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool (SMART)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crow, W. T.; van den Berg, M. J.; Huffman, G. J.; Pellarin, T.

    2011-08-01

    Recently, Crow et al. (2009) developed an algorithm for enhancing satellite-based land rainfall products via the assimilation of remotely sensed surface soil moisture retrievals into a water balance model. As a follow-up, this paper describes the benefits of modifying their approach to incorporate more complex data assimilation and land surface modeling methodologies. Specific modifications improving rainfall estimates are assembled into the Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool (SMART), and the resulting algorithm is applied outside the contiguous United States for the first time, with an emphasis on West African sites instrumented as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis experiment. Results demonstrate that the SMART algorithm is superior to the Crow et al. baseline approach and is capable of broadly improving coarse-scale rainfall accumulations measurements with low risk of degradation. Comparisons with existing multisensor, satellite-based precipitation data products suggest that the introduction of soil moisture information from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer via SMART provides as much coarse-scale (3 day, 1°) rainfall accumulation information as thermal infrared satellite observations and more information than monthly rain gauge observations in poorly instrumented regions.

  16. Twenty-first century projected summer mean climate in the Mediterranean interpreted through the monsoon-desert mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherchi, Annalisa; Annamalai, H.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Alessandri, Andrea

    2016-10-01

    The term "monsoon-desert mechanism" indicates the relationship between the diabatic heating associated with the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall and the remote response in the western sub-tropics where long Rossby waves anchor strong descent with high subsidence. In CMIP5 twenty-first century climate scenarios, the precipitation over South Asia is projected to increase. This study investigates how this change could affect the summer climate projections in the Mediterranean region. In a linear framework the monsoon-desert mechanism in the context of climate change would imply that the change in subsidence over the Mediterranean should be strongly linked with the changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation. The steady-state solution from a linear model forced with CMIP5 model projected precipitation change over South Asia shows a broad region of descent in the Mediterranean, while the results from CMIP5 projections differ having increased descent mostly in the western sector but also decreased descent in parts of the eastern sector. Local changes in circulation, particularly the meridional wind, promote cold air advection that anchors the descent but the barotropic Rossby wave nature of the wind anomalies consisting of alternating northerlies/southerlies favors alternating descent/ascent locations. In fact, the local mid-tropospheric meridional wind changes have the strongest correlation with the regions where the difference in subsidence is largest. There decreased rainfall is mostly balanced by changes in moisture, omega and in the horizontal advection of moisture.

  17. A comparative study of the Indian summer monsoon hydroclimate and its variations in three reanalyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Misra, Vasubandhu [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Florida State University, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Pantina, P. [Science Systems and Application, Inc., Lanham, MD (United States); NASA/GSFC, Cloud and Radiation Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Chan, S.C. [Newcastle University, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle upon Tyne (United Kingdom); Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter (United Kingdom); DiNapoli, S. [Florida State University, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2012-09-15

    This study examines the Indian summer monsoon hydroclimate in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) Reanalysis (R2), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The three reanalyses show significant differences in the climatology of evaporation, low-level winds, and precipitable water fields over India. For example, the continental evaporation is significantly less in CFSR compared to R2 and MERRA. Likewise the mean boreal summer 925 hPa westerly winds in the northern Indian Ocean are stronger in R2. Similarly the continental precipitable water in R2 is much less while it is higher and comparable in MERRA and CFSR. Despite these climatological differences between the reanalyses, the climatological evaporative sources for rain events over central India show some qualitative similarities. Major differences however appear when interannual variations of the Indian summer monsoon are analyzed. The anomalous oceanic sources of moisture from the adjacent Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea play a significant role in determining the wet or dry year of the Indian monsoon in CFSR. However in R2 the local evaporative sources from the continental region play a more significant role. We also find that the interannual variability of the evaporative sources in the break spells of the intraseasonal variations of the Indian monsoon is stronger than in the wet spells. We therefore claim that instead of rainfall, evaporative sources may be a more appropriate metric to observe the relationship between the seasonal monsoon strength and intraseasonal activity. These findings are consistent across the reanalyses and provide a basis to improve the predictability of intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. This study also has a bearing on improving weather prediction for tropical cyclones in that we suggest targeting enhanced observations in the Bay of Bengal

  18. Asian Black Carbon Influence on East Asian Summer Monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, R.; Li, S.

    2012-04-01

    Since the black carbon (BC) emission in East and South Asia has increased significantly during the last decades of the 20th century, there is an ever growing concern about its impact on Asian monsoon. In this study we provide an in-depth analysis of the influence by performing several ensemble sensitive experiments with or without historical BC concentrations over East Asia, South Asia, and the combined East and South Asia in an atmospheric general circulation model, GFDL AM2.1. The results show that: (a) The East Asian summer climate is sensitive to the East Asian BC (EABC) concentrations in a sense that EABC contributes significantly to the frequently occurring north-drought and south-flood patterns in Eastern China. In detail, the large scale precipitation anomalies induced by EABC characterize more rainfalls over central/south China, East China Sea and southern Japan and less rainfall over northern China and the west Pacific region between 10° to 20°N. These anomalous precipitation patterns are mainly attributed to the EABC induced large scale circulation changes including the weakened Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), anomalous ascent motions over central-southern China (centering over the Yangtze River valley (YRV)) and the subsequent descent motions over northern China and the South China Sea. These modeled results suggest that the EABC experiment reproduces the climate shift event of eastern China during the late 1970s, including intensified rainfall in the YRV and the weakened summer monsoonal circulation. (b) The anomalous results of South Asian BC (SABC) experiment signify a tri-polar precipitation response over East Asia, with a reduction from the YRV to East China Sea and southern Japan sandwiched with increases over a northern domain from northern China/ Korea to northern Japan and over southern China. As for southern China, particularly the YRV, the impact of SABC is to offset a fraction of intensified rainfall induced by local BC of East

  19. Consistent response of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust in observations and simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Q.

    2015-06-11

    The response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and precipitation to Middle East dust aerosols on sub-seasonal timescales is studied using observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Satellite data show that the ISM rainfall in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and Pakistan is closely associated with the Middle East dust aerosols. The physical mechanism behind this dust–ISM rainfall connection is examined through ensemble simulations with and without dust emissions. Each ensemble includes 16 members with various physical and chemical schemes to consider the model uncertainties in parameterizing short-wave radiation, the planetary boundary layer, and aerosol chemical mixing rules. Experiments show that dust aerosols increase rainfall by about 0.44mmday1 ( 10% of the climatology) in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and north Pakistan, a pattern consistent with the observed relationship. The ensemble mean rainfall response over India shows a much stronger spatial correlation with the observed rainfall response than any other ensemble members. The largest modeling uncertainties are from the boundary layer schemes, followed by short-wave radiation schemes. In WRF-Chem, the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Middle East shows the strongest correlation with the ISM rainfall response when dust AOD leads rainfall response by about 11 days. Further analyses show that increased ISM rainfall is related to enhanced southwesterly monsoon flow and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, which are associated with the development of an anomalous low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Iranian Plateau due to dust-induced heating in the troposphere. The dust-induced heating in the mid-upper troposphere is mainly located in the Iranian Plateau rather than the Tibetan Plateau. This study demonstrates

  20. Consistent response of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust in observations and simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Q.

    2015-09-02

    © Author(s) 2015. The response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and precipitation to Middle East dust aerosols on sub-seasonal timescales is studied using observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Satellite data show that the ISM rainfall in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and Pakistan is closely associated with the Middle East dust aerosols. The physical mechanism behind this dust-ISM rainfall connection is examined through ensemble simulations with and without dust emissions. Each ensemble includes 16 members with various physical and chemical schemes to consider the model uncertainties in parameterizing short-wave radiation, the planetary boundary layer, and aerosol chemical mixing rules. Experiments show that dust aerosols increase rainfall by about 0.44 mm day-1 (∼10 % of the climatology) in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and north Pakistan, a pattern consistent with the observed relationship. The ensemble mean rainfall response over India shows a much stronger spatial correlation with the observed rainfall response than any other ensemble members. The largest modeling uncertainties are from the boundary layer schemes, followed by short-wave radiation schemes. In WRF-Chem, the dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Middle East shows the strongest correlation with the ISM rainfall response when dust AOD leads rainfall response by about 11 days. Further analyses show that increased ISM rainfall is related to enhanced southwesterly monsoon flow and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent, which are associated with the development of an anomalous low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Iranian Plateau due to dust-induced heating in the troposphere. The dust-induced heating in the mid-upper troposphere is mainly located in the Iranian Plateau rather than the Tibetan

  1. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

    2017-02-24

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  2. Characteristics of rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. K. W. Cheung

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the Central Mountain Range with an elevation up to about 4 km, the amount and distribution of rainfall in Taiwan associated with typhoons or tropical cyclones (TCs depends not only on the distribution of convection within the TCs (internal structure and influences from monsoon-scale environmental flow, but also on the orographic effect. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall associated with 62 TC cases that affected Taiwan by using observations from the 371 automatic rain stations available in the period 1989–2002. It is found from the climatology maps that highly different rainfall distributions occurred for TCs that approached the Taiwan area from different directions. By performing objective clustering analysis of the rainfall time series of all the rain gauges, several characteristic temporal rainfall profiles are obtained. The geographic distribution of rain gauges that possess a particular temporal profile is also consistent with the possible TC track types that bring maximum rain to the Taiwan area at different times.

    Based on data in the 1989–2002 period, the development of a TC rainfall climatology-persistence (CLIPER model is described. CLIPER is an optimized combination of climatology and persistence with different relative weighting for different forecast periods. Independent cases (other than the model development database during 2003–2004 are used to validate the model. Objective measures like equitable threat score and bias score show that CLIPER's skill is acceptable for practical applications for 24-h rain threshold below 100 mm. However, the underestimation bias for more heavy rainfall is serious and CLIPER seems to have better performance for the northwestern Taiwan than for the other locations. Future directions for improvement of the CLIPER model are discussed.

  3. An Empirical Study of Surface Wind Retrievals using the TMI over the South China Sea in the Summer Monsoon Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Chung Li Gin-Rong Liu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This study demonstrates the feasibility of an oceanic wind speed retrieval method: the D-matrix algorithm for local usage. The D-matrix algorithm was examined and ocean surface wind retrievals, utilizing the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI, were validated by using wind speed measurements from ocean buoys deployed over the South China Sea from April to June of 1998 as part of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment / 1998. Results showed the TMI D-matrix algorithm potentially malfunctioning in terms of no-rainfall recognition when summer monsoons prevail. In this study, assistance to its rain identification ability was conducted by using rain-screening methods for screening out non-rainfall TMI points. As to the quantitative validation, only cases of wind speed weaker than 15 m s-1 were analyzed with a root mean square of 1.34 m s-1. The study results are significant for local usage of the rain-fall-profiling algorithm providing a scheme for estimating surface wind speeds over the South China Sea during the summer monsoon season.

  4. Dynamic and Thermodynamic Evolution of Indian Monsoon Onset in the Initialized Coupled Seasonal Forecasting Model of the UK Met Office

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, A.; Turner, A. G.; Martin, G.

    2016-12-01

    The Indian summer monsoon onset and evolution has major socioeconomic impacts on the population of the country as more than 60% of agriculture in India is rainfed. Understanding and predicting the Indian monsoon onset and progression remains a challenge to the modelling community. In this study we use hindcast simulations from the Met Office fully coupled atmosphere-ocean Global Seasonal Forecast System 5 (GloSea5) to examine the monsoon onset and progression over India. The GloSea5 simulations are produced for three different start dates, one in late April and two in early May, and both the atmosphere and ocean are initialized. We use common objective indices based on circulation and wind shear to determine the onset date over India and find that the dynamic indices obtained from GloSea5 hindcasts are consistent with that from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. GloSea5 is also very effective in capturing the spatial pattern of the monsoon rainfall progression following the onset. We next analyse the composite evolution of various dynamic and thermodynamic fields associated with these indices, focusing on recent findings suggesting the importance of dry air incursions above the surface from the northwest. We further extend our analysis by using the Met Office Unified Model nesting suite with updated forcing datasets to examine the sensitivity of the model to a range of horizontal resolutions in simulating the onset and progression of 2016 Indian monsoon.

  5. How effective is the new generation of GPM satellite precipitation in characterizing the rainfall variability over Malaysia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmud, Mohd Rizaludin; Hashim, Mazlan; Reba, Mohd Nadzri Mohd

    2017-08-01

    We investigated the potential of the new generation of satellite precipitation product from the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) to characterize the rainfall in Malaysia. Most satellite precipitation products have limited ability to precisely characterize the high dynamic rainfall variation that occurred at both time and scale in this humid tropical region due to the coarse grid size to meet the physical condition of the smaller land size, sub-continent and islands. Prior to the status quo, an improved satellite precipitation was required to accurately measure the rainfall and its distribution. Subsequently, the newly released of GPM precipitation product at half-hourly and 0.1° resolution served an opportunity to anticipate the aforementioned conflict. Nevertheless, related evidence was not found and therefore, this study made an initiative to fill the gap. A total of 843 rain gauges over east (Borneo) and west Malaysia (Peninsular) were used to evaluate the rainfall the GPM rainfall data. The assessment covered all critical rainy seasons which associated with Asian Monsoon including northeast (Nov. - Feb.), southwest (May - Aug.) and their subsequent inter-monsoon period (Mar. - Apr. & Sep. - Oct.). The ability of GPM to provide quantitative rainfall estimates and qualitative spatial rainfall patterns were analysed. Our results showed that the GPM had good capacity to depict the spatial rainfall patterns in less heterogeneous rainfall patterns (Spearman's correlation, 0.591 to 0.891) compared to the clustered one (r = 0.368 to 0.721). Rainfall intensity and spatial heterogeneity that is largely driven by seasonal monsoon has significant influence on GPM ability to resolve local rainfall patterns. In quantitative rainfall estimation, large errors can be primarily associated with the rainfall intensity increment. 77% of the error variation can be explained through rainfall intensity particularly the high intensity (> 35 mm d-1). A strong relationship between GPM

  6. Skill, reproducibility and potential predictability of the West African monsoon in coupled GCMs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philippon, N. [UMR5210 CNRS/Universite de Bourgogne, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, 6 blvd Gabriel, BP 21877, Dijon Cedex (France); Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima, Barcelona (Spain); Ruti, P.M. [Ente por le Nuove Tecnologie, l' Energia e l' Ambiante, Rome (Italy)

    2010-07-15

    In the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project, an ensemble prediction system based on five different state-of-the-art European coupled models has been developed. This study evaluates the performance of these models for forecasting the West African monsoon (WAM) at the monthly time scale. From simulations started the 1 May of each year and covering the period 1991-2001, the reproducibility and potential predictability (PP) of key parameters of the WAM - rainfall, zonal and meridional wind at four levels from the surface to 200 hPa, and specific humidity, from July to September - are assessed. The Sahelian rainfall mode of variability is not accurately reproduced contrary to the Guinean rainfall one: the correlation between observations (from CMAP) and the multi-model ensemble mean is 0.17 and 0.55, respectively. For the Sahelian mode, the correlation is consistent with a low PP of about {proportional_to}6%. The PP of the Guinean mode is higher, {proportional_to}44% suggesting a stronger forcing of the sea surface temperature on rainfall variability over this region. Parameters relative to the atmospheric dynamics are on average much more skillful and reproducible than rainfall. Among them, the first mode of variability of the zonal wind at 200 hPa that depicts the Tropical Easterly Jet, is correlated at 0.79 with its ''observed'' counterpart (from the NCEP/DOE2 reanalyses) and has a PP of 39%. Moreover, models reproduce the correlations between all the atmospheric dynamics parameters and the Sahelian rainfall in a satisfactory way. In that context, a statistical adaptation of the atmospheric dynamic forecasts, using a linear regression model with the leading principal components of the atmospheric dynamical parameters studied, leads to moderate receiver operating characteristic area under the curve and correlation skill scores for the Sahelian rainfall. These scores are however much higher than those obtained using the modelled rainfall. (orig.)

  7. Planetary Boundary Layer Patterns, Height Variability and their Controls over the Indian Subcontinent with respect to Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathyanadh, A.; Karipot, A.; Prabhakaran, T.

    2016-12-01

    Planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and its controlling factors undergo large variations at different spatio-temporal scales over land regions. In the present study, Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data products are used to investigate variations of PBL height and its controls in relation to different phases of Indian monsoon. MERRA PBL height validations carried out against those estimated from radiosonde and Global Positioning System Radio Occultation atmospheric profiles revealed fairly good agreement. Different PBL patterns are identified in terms of maximum height, its time of occurrence and growth rate, and they vary with respect to geographical locations, terrain characteristics and monsoon circulation. The pre-monsoon boundary layers are the deepest over the region, often exceeding 4 km and grow at a rate of approximately 400 m hr-1. Large nocturnal BL depths, possibly related to weakly convective residual layers, are another feature noted during dry conditions. Monsoon BLs are generally shallower, except where rainfall is scanty. The break-monsoon periods have slightly deeper BLs than the active monsoon phase. The controlling factors for the observed boundary layer behaviour are investigated using supplementary MERRA datasets. Evaporative fraction is found to have dominant control on the PBL height varying with seasons and regions. The characteristics and controls of wet and dry boundary layer regimes over inland and coastal locations are different. The fractional diffusion (ratio of non-local and total diffusion) coefficient analyses indicated that enhanced entrainment during monsoon contributes to reduction in PBLH unlike in the dry period. The relationship between controls and PBLH are better defined over inland than coastal regions. The wavelet cross spectral analysis revealed temporal variations in dominant contributions from the controlling factors at different periodicities during the course of the year.

  8. Volcanoes magnify Metro Manila’s southwest monsoon rains and lethal floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Mahar Amante Lagmay

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Many volcanoes worldwide are located near populated cities that experience monsoon seasons, characterised by shifting winds each year. Because of the severity of flood impact to large populations, it is worthy of investigation in the Philippines and elsewhere to better understand the phenomenon for possible hazard mitigating solutions, if any. During the monsoon season, the change in flow direction of winds brings moist warm air to cross the mountains and volcanoes in western Philippines and cause lift into the atmosphere, which normally leads to heavy rains and floods. Heavy southwest monsoon rains from 18-21 August 2013 flooded Metro Manila (population of 12 million and its suburbs paralyzing the nation’s capital for an entire week. Called the 2013 Habagat event, it was a repeat of the 2012 Habagat or extreme southwest monsoon weather from 6-9 August, which delivered record rains in the mega city. In both the 2012 and 2013 Habagat events, cyclones, the usual suspects for the delivery of heavy rains, were passing northeast of the Philippine archipelago, respectively, and enhanced the southwest monsoon. Analysis of Doppler data, rainfall measurements, and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model simulations show that two large stratovolcanoes, Natib and Mariveles, across from Manila Bay and approximately 70 km west of Metro Manila, played a substantial role in delivering extreme rains and consequent floods to Metro Manila. The study highlights how volcanoes, with their shape and height create an orographic effect and dispersive tail of rain clouds which constitutes a significant flood hazard to large communities like Metro Manila.

  9. Contribution of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks to Holocene climate change in monsoonal Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Dallmeyer

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of vegetation-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions on the mid- to late Holocene climate change as well as their synergy is studied for different parts of the Asian monsoon region, giving consideration to the large climatic and topographical heterogeneity in that area. We concentrate on temperature and precipitation changes as the main parameters describing monsoonal influenced climates. For our purpose, we analyse a set of coupled numerical experiments, performed with the comprehensive Earth system model ECHAM5/JSBACH-MPIOM under present-day and mid-Holocene (6 k orbital configurations (Otto et al., 2009b. The temperature change caused by the insolation forcing reveals an enhanced seasonal cycle, with a pronounced warming in summer (0.58 K and autumn (1.29 K and a cooling in the other seasons (spring: -1.32 K; winter: -0.97 K. Most of this change can be attributed to the direct response of the atmosphere, but the ocean, whose reaction has a lagged seasonal cycle (warming in autumn and winter, cooling in the other seasons, strongly modifies the signal. The simulated contribution of dynamic vegetation is small and most effective in winter, where it slightly warms the near-surface atmosphere (approx. 0.03 K. The temperature difference attributed to the synergy is on average positive, but also small. Concerning the precipitation, the most remarkable change is the postponement and enhancement of the Asian monsoon (0.46 mm/day in summer, 0.53 mm/day in autumn, mainly related to the direct atmospheric response. On regional average, the interactive ocean (ca. 0.18 mm/day amplifies the direct effect, but tends to weaken the East Asian summer monsoon and strongly increases the Indian summer monsoon rainfall rate (0.68 mm/day. The influence of dynamic vegetation on precipitation is comparatively small (<0.04 mm/day. The synergy effect has no influence, on average.

  10. Drying projection over western maritime continent during Southwest and Northeast monsoon seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kartika Lestari, R.

    2017-04-01

    In the maritime continent, the precipitation variability is large and recently, this region experiences longer dry season and more number of severe drought events that are threatening the human life, such as, water supply for daily life and agriculture, and unhealthy air quality due to the increased number of wildfires. Global warming has been known to contribute to the rainfall anomalies around the world, and present study investigate the extent to which the drying conditions are going to be happened in 21st century over western part of the maritime continent (WMC), where the population is much larger than the eastern part, during both active Southwest (SW) and Northeast (NE) monsoon seasons. A future change in the precipitation over WMC is suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. In addition to CMIP5, we analyse the downscaled data of nine selected CMIP5 models to examine if there is modification in the drying projection when higher resolution data are used. While the north and south of equator show out of phase in the precipitation change, the region around equator shows decreased precipitation during both the SW monsoon in June-July-August-September (JJAS) and the peak of NE monsoon in February (FEB). The drying projection is robustly shown in FEB when Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shift to the southern hemisphere, but the same robustness is not shown in JJAS when the monsoon over South China Sea is active. The detail results, including the mechanisms and the impacts of tropical climate features (such as, warming Pacific Ocean, monsoon, ITCZ) that drive the drying projection, and the possible reasons causing different degree in the robustness between two seasons, will be shown in the presentation.

  11. Asian Monsoon Variations on Orbital-Millennial Scales and the `100 Thousand Year Problems'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Sinha, A.; Spoetl, C.; Yi, L.; Li, X.; Kathayat, G.

    2016-12-01

    Speleothem oxygen isotope records from China characterize changes in the Asian monsoon and global climate. We have now extended our Chinese record to cover the full uranium/thorium dating range: the last 640,000 years. The record's length, temporal precision, and correlations with both ice core and marine records allow us to further probe the enduring `100 ka problem'—i.e., why do large-amplitude ice age cycles and changes in eccentricity share common spectral power although the latter generates negligible change in insolation? Based on our record's timing, the ice age terminations are separated by 4 or 5 precession cycles, supporting the idea that the 100 ka ice age cycle is an average of discrete numbers of precession cycles. Furthermore, the suborbital component of monsoon rainfall variability exhibits power in precession and obliquity bands, and is nearly anti-phased with June 21 boreal insolation. These observations indicate that insolation, in part, paces the occurrence of millennial-scale events, including those associated with ice age terminations and `unfinished terminations'. In the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain, Loess magnetic susceptibility records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) show that the EASM is dominated by 100 ka cycles, which is in contrast to the conventional notion that insolation changes caused by the 20 ka precession cycle are the primary driver of summer monsoon. These observations present another paradox, which we dub here as the `Chinese 100 ka problem'. The existing and new speleothem records from both China and India reinforce the idea that precession, rather than glacial-interglacial, cycles, is the dominant driver of both EASM and Indian summer monsoon variations. The lack of precession signals in the loess records from the CLP might stem partially from its unique climatological settings and complex nature of loess magnetic susceptibility proxy.

  12. Frequency Analysis of Different Time Series Rainfall at Kohima, Nagaland, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusre, B. C.; Shyamjai Singh, Kh.

    2012-05-01

    The present study was taken up with the objective of identifying suitable probability distribution function for estimating the rainfall amounts for different return period and probabilities for Kohima station in Nagaland. Five different distribution functions were selected for different data series. The distribution functions considered were normal, log normal, gumbel, log logistic and exponential. The criteria for selecting the distribution functions were coefficient of determination (R2) and Chi square values. The data series considered were annual, maximum weekly (29th calendar week), maximum monthly (July), minimum monthly (December) and monsoon season (June-September). The study revealed that log logistic distribution function was fitted well for annual, July month and monsoon season data series where as exponential data series fitted well for maximum weekly and December data series. Based on the identified frequency distribution function rainfall amounts for different return periods and probabilities were estimated.

  13. Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S.; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J.; deMenocal, Peter B.; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

    2017-02-01

    The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ˜400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall “intensity based” interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative “water vapor sourcing” interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (˜35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

  14. Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, Yonaton; Broecker, Wallace S; Xu, Hai; Polissar, Pratigya J; deMenocal, Peter B; Porat, Naomi; Lan, Jianghu; Cheng, Peng; Zhou, Weijian; An, Zhisheng

    2017-02-21

    The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries. Lake levels were 60 m higher than present during the early and middle Holocene, requiring a twofold increase in annual rainfall, which, based on modern rainfall distribution, requires a ∼400 km northward expansion/migration of the EAM. The lake record is highly correlated with both northern and southern Chinese cave deposit isotope records, supporting rainfall "intensity based" interpretations of these deposits as opposed to an alternative "water vapor sourcing" interpretation. These results indicate that EAM intensity and the northward extent covary on orbital and millennial timescales. The termination of wet conditions at 5.5 ka BP (∼35 m lake drop) triggered a large cultural collapse of Early Neolithic cultures in north China, and possibly promoted the emergence of complex societies of the Late Neolithic.

  15. Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Y. [University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environment, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Saclay (France); Harrison, S.P. [University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Macquarie University, School of Biological Sciences, North Ryde, NSW (Australia)

    2012-09-15

    The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6 ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6 ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6 ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean-atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the

  16. Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-09-01

    Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

  17. Aerosol and monsoon climate interactions over Asia: AEROSOL AND MONSOON CLIMATE INTERACTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zhanqing [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Lau, W. K. -M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Ramanathan, V. [Department of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, University of California, San Diego California USA; Wu, G. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Ding, Y. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Manoj, M. G. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Liu, J. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Qian, Y. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Li, J. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhou, T. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Fan, J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Rosenfeld, D. [Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Jerusalem Israel; Ming, Y. [Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton New Jersey USA; Wang, Y. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Huang, J. [College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou China; Wang, B. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu Hawaii USA; School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Xu, X. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Lee, S. -S. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Cribb, M. [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and ESSIC, University of Maryland, College Park Maryland USA; Zhang, F. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Yang, X. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Zhao, C. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Takemura, T. [Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka Japan; Wang, K. [State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology and College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing China; Xia, X. [Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China; Yin, Y. [School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing China; Zhang, H. [National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing China; Guo, J. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Zhai, P. M. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing China; Sugimoto, N. [National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Japan; Babu, S. S. [Space Physics Laboratory, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre, Thiruvananthapuram India; Brasseur, G. P. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany

    2016-11-15

    Asian monsoons and aerosols have been studied extensively which are intertwined in influencing the climate of Asia. This paper provides a comprehensive review of ample studies on Asian aerosol, monsoon and their interactions. The region is the primary source of aerosol emissions of varies species, influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes. On continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulation. The atmospheric thermodynamic state may also be altered by the aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of numerous monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcings of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.

  18. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth

    2005-01-01

    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between ne...

  19. Possible Influences of Air Pollution, Dust and Sandstorms on the Indian Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hsu, Christina N.; Holben, Brent N.

    2010-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries, such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious, due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and.property with devastating societal impacts. Historically, air-pollution and monsoons research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly. Fundamentally, aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects cif suspended particles in the atmosphere (direct effect) and/or by interfering and changing: the cloud and precipitation formation processes (indirect effect). Based on their optical properties, aerosols can be classified into two types.: those that absorb solar radiation, and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface, causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential, Absorbing aerosols, however, in addition to cooling the surface, can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating, however, may induce rising motion, enhance low-level moisture, convergence and, hence, increases rainfall, The latent heating from enhanced rainfall may excite feedback processes in the large-scale circulation, further amplify.the initial response to aerosol heating and producing more rain. Additionally, aerosols can increase the concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), increase cloud amount and decrease coalescence and collision rates, leading to

  20. Rainfall Stochastic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

  1. Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

    2018-01-01

    The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

  2. The ICTP Regional System Model (RESM) to simulate the monsoon in the South Asia CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Sante, Fabio; Coppola, Erika; Farneti, Riccardo; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-04-01

    South Asian climate is characterized mainly by the wet and dry dipole that divides the annual cycle in two seasons: the monsoon season and the dry season. The life and the economy of those regions is very much influenced by the climate variability and the monsoon variability therefore is crucial to understand the physical mechanism associated with them. The spatial and temporal representation of the monsoons over the South Asian region is one of the main challenge of global and regional climate models principally because they fail to represent the SST (sea surface temperature) induced rainfall when forced with observed SST resulting in a poor representation of the monsoon cycle (Fu et al. 2002). The coupling with the ocean is essential to be able to simulate the correct air-sea interaction; the results are in general much improved and the monsoon patterns and the time representation (like the onset for example) are closer to the observations (Fu et al. 2002; Fu et al. 2007; Ratnam et Al. 2008; Seo et Al. 2009). Here we present a Regional Earth System Model (RESM) composed by a regional climate model RegCM4 (Giorgi et al, 2012) coupled with the regional oceanic model MITgcm (Marshall et al, 1997) and two hydrological model: ChyM (Cetemps Hydrological Model, Coppola et al, 2007) and HD model (Max-Planck's HD model; Hagemann and Dümenil, 1998). We simulate the Southern Asian Climate taking into account the whole hydrological cycle. Wind stress, water fluxes and heat fluxes are exchanged from the atmosphere to the ocean, SST are exchanged from ocean to the atmosphere and in order to conserve mass, the river discharge is calculated from the Hydrological model and sent to the ocean. The main goal of this work is to evaluate the impacts of local air-sea interaction in the simulation of the interannual variability, over the Indian CORDEX (Giorgi et al, 2009) domain through regionally ocean-atmosphere-river coupled and uncoupled simulations, with a focus on monsoon season

  3. The modification of the typhoon rainfall climatology model in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-S. Lee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is focused on the modification of a typhoon rainfall climatological model, by using the dataset up to 2006 and including data collected from rain gauge stations established after the 921 earthquake (1999. Subsequently, the climatology rainfall models for westward- and northward-moving typhoons are established by using the typhoon track classification from the Central Weather Bureau. These models are also evaluated and examined using dependent cases collected between 1989 and 2006 and independent cases collected from 2007 to 2011. For the dependent cases, the average total rainfall at all rain gauge stations forecasted using the climatology rainfall models for westward- (W-TRCM12 and northward-moving (N-TRCM12 typhoons is superior to that obtained using the original climatological model (TRCM06. Model W-TRCM12 significantly improves the precipitation underestimation of model TRCM06. The independent cases show that model W-TRCM12 provides better accumulated rainfall forecasts and distributions than model TRCM06. A climatological model for accompanied northeastern monsoons (A-TRCM12 for special typhoon types has also been established. The current A-TRCM12 model only contains five historical cases and various typhoon combinations can cause precipitation in different regions. Therefore, precipitation is likely to be significantly overestimated and high false alarm ratios are likely to occur in specific regions. For example, model A-TRCM12 significantly overestimates the rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mitag, an independent case from 2007. However, it has a higher probability of detection than model TRCM06. From a disaster prevention perspective, a high probability of detection is much more important than a high false alarm ratio. The modified models can contribute significantly to operational forecast.

  4. Soil moisture variations in remotely sensed and reanalysis datasets during weak monsoon conditions over central India and central Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Sourabh; Kar, Sarat C.; Sharma, Anu Rani

    2017-07-01

    Variation of soil moisture during active and weak phases of summer monsoon JJAS (June, July, August, and September) is very important for sustenance of the crop and subsequent crop yield. As in situ observations of soil moisture are few or not available, researchers use data derived from remote sensing satellites or global reanalysis. This study documents the intercomparison of soil moisture from remotely sensed and reanalyses during dry spells within monsoon seasons in central India and central Myanmar. Soil moisture data from the European Space Agency (ESA)—Climate Change Initiative (CCI) has been treated as observed data and was compared against soil moisture data from the ECMWF reanalysis-Interim (ERA-I) and the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) for the period of 2002-2011. The ESA soil moisture correlates rather well with observed gridded rainfall. The ESA data indicates that soil moisture increases over India from west to east and from north to south during monsoon season. The ERA-I overestimates the soil moisture over India, while the CFSR soil moisture agrees well with the remotely sensed observation (ESA). Over Myanmar, both the reanalysis overestimate soil moisture values and the ERA-I soil moisture does not show much variability from year to year. Day-to-day variations of soil moisture in central India and central Myanmar during weak monsoon conditions indicate that, because of the rainfall deficiency, the observed (ESA) and the CFSR soil moisture values are reduced up to 0.1 m3/m3 compared to climatological values of more than 0.35 m3/m3. This reduction is not seen in the ERA-I data. Therefore, soil moisture from the CFSR is closer to the ESA observed soil moisture than that from the ERA-I during weak phases of monsoon in the study region.

  5. Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall using dynamics-based indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Noelia; Mohino, Elsa; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-12-01

    At decadal time scales, the capability of state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models in predicting the precipitation in Sahel is assessed. A set of 14 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is selected and two experiments are analysed, namely initialized decadal hindcasts and forced historical simulations. Considering the strong linkage of the atmospheric circulation signatures over West Africa with the rainfall variability, this study aims to investigate the potential of using wind fields for decadal predictions. Namely, a West African monsoon index (WAMI) is defined, based on the coherence of low (925 hPa) and high (200 hPa) troposphere wind fields, which accounts for the intensity of the monsoonal circulation. A combined empirical orthogonal functions analysis is applied to explore the wind fields' covariance modes, and a set of indices is defined on the basis of the identified patterns. The WAMI predictive skill is assessed by comparing WAMI from coupled models with WAMI from reanalysis products and with a standardized precipitation index (SPI) from observations. Results suggest that the predictive skill is highly model dependent and it is strongly related to the WAMI definition. In addition, hindcasts are more skilful than historical simulations in both deterministic and probability forecasts, which suggests an added value of initialization for decadal predictability. Moreover, coupled models are more skilful in predicting the observed SPI than the WAMI obtained from reanalysis. WAMI performance is also compared with decadal predictions from CMIP5 models based on a Sahelian precipitation index, and an improvement in predictive skill is observed in some models when WAMI is used. Therefore, we conclude that dynamics-based indices are potentially more effective for decadal prediction of precipitation in Sahel than precipitation-based indices for those models in which Sahel rainfall variability is not well

  6. Land surface sensitivity of monsoon depressions formed over Bay of Bengal using improved high-resolution land state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajesh, P. V.; Pattnaik, S.; Mohanty, U. C.; Rai, D.; Baisya, H.; Pandey, P. C.

    2017-12-01

    Monsoon depressions (MDs) constitute a large fraction of the total rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon season. In this study, the impact of high-resolution land state is addressed by assessing the evolution of inland moving depressions formed over the Bay of Bengal using a mesoscale modeling system. Improved land state is generated using High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System employing Noah-MP land-surface model. Verification of soil moisture using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and soil temperature using tower observations demonstrate promising results. Incorporating high-resolution land state yielded least root mean squared errors with higher correlation coefficient in the surface and mid tropospheric parameters. Rainfall forecasts reveal that simulations are spatially and quantitatively in accordance with observations and provide better skill scores. The improved land surface characteristics have brought about the realistic evolution of surface, mid-tropospheric parameters, vorticity and moist static energy that facilitates the accurate MDs dynamics in the model. Composite moisture budget analysis reveals that the surface evaporation is negligible compared to moisture flux convergence of water vapor, which supplies moisture into the MDs over land. The temporal relationship between rainfall and moisture convergence show high correlation, suggesting a realistic representation of land state help restructure the moisture inflow into the system through rainfall-moisture convergence feedback.

  7. Monsoon signatures in recent corals from the Laccadive Islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naqvi, S.A.S.

    have reduced water transparency, thereby curtailing the growth rates. Scanning electron microscopy clearly showed the presence of lithogenic and biogenic material in the monsoonal bands and their absence in the non-monsoonal bands. This indicates...

  8. The monsoon currents in the north Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shankar, D.; Vinayachandran, P.N.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    -September) and the Winter Monsoon Current (WMC) flows westward during the winter monsoon (November-February). We assemble data on ship drifts, winds and Ekman drift, and geostrophic currents derived from altimetry and hydrography to describe the observed climatological...

  9. Hydrography of the Wadge bank - premonsoon and monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RamaRaju, V.S.; Rao, T.V.N.; RameshBabu, V.; Anto, A.F.

    The hydrography of the Wadge Bank during premonsoon and monsoon seasons is presented. The thermocline slopes downward towards the central region. Upwelling is prominent in the entire region during monsoon and is observed only in the western...

  10. Statistical evaluation of rainfall time series in concurrence with agriculture and water resources of Ken River basin, Central India (1901-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Meshram, Chandrashekhar; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Ambade, Balram

    2017-12-01

    Trend analysis of long-term rainfall records can be used to facilitate better agriculture water management decision and climate risk studies. The main objective of this study was to identify the existing trends in the long-term rainfall time series over the period 1901-2010 utilizing 12 hydrological stations located at the Ken River basin (KRB) in Madhya Pradesh, India. To investigate the different trends, the rainfall time series data were divided into annual and seasonal (i.e., pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter season) sub-sets, and a statistical analysis of data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Sen's slope approach was applied to identify the nature of the existing trends in rainfall series for the Ken River basin. The obtained results were further interpolated with the aid of the Quantum Geographic Information System (GIS) approach employing the inverse distance weighted approach. The results showed that the monsoon and the winter season exhibited a negative trend in rainfall changes over the period of study, and this was true for all stations, although the changes during the pre- and the post-monsoon seasons were less significant. The outcomes of this research study also suggest significant decreases in the seasonal and annual trends of rainfall amounts in the study period. These findings showing a clear signature of climate change impacts on KRB region potentially have implications in terms of climate risk management strategies to be developed during major growing and harvesting seasons and also to aid in the appropriate water resource management strategies that must be implemented in decision-making process.

  11. Classification of cloud types for rainfall forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Niyati Salot; Dr. Priya R. Swaminarayan

    2015-01-01

    India, primarily an agriculture-based economy, is largely dependent on the monsoon. The agriculture sector is the backbone of the Indian economy and therefore, monsoon should be considered the backbone of agriculture. It has more impact in the financial & social domain. Because of the cost element and Security issues, in modern age it is now possible to use digital image processing techniques to calculate different parameters that are affect the monsoon or affected by monsoon in global enviro...

  12. Diagnosing potential changes in Asian summer monsoon onset and duration in IPCC AR4 model simulations using moisture and wind indices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Huqiang; Moise, A.; Hanson, L. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, A Partnership between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, GPO Box 1289k, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Liang, Ping [China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai Regional Climate Center, Shanghai (China)

    2012-11-15

    identified in this study are consistent with each other and both are likely linked to the weakening and westward shift of Walker circulation in the warm pool and maritime continent region. Increases in precipitable water associated with global warming do not change monsoon rainfall and circulation seasonality much but they can result in increased rainfall intensity once the summer monsoon is established. (orig.)

  13. Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variations in the upper Hanjiang River region, China over the past 6650 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, Lawrence R.; Gao, Yongli; Xu, Hai; Zhang, Haiwei; An, Zhisheng

    2018-01-01

    propose that weakened summer monsoon and less strengthened or normal Westerly jet may cause rain belt stay longer in the southward region, which reduced rainfall in northern China but enhanced it in central and southern China.

  14. Identification of trends in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in part of the Indian Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Alok; Ziegler, Alan D.; Wasson, Robert J.; Chow, Winston; Sharma, Mukat L.

    2017-04-01

    Extreme monsoon rainfall is the primary reason of floods and other secondary hazards such as landslides in the Indian Himalaya. Understanding the phenomena of extreme monsoon rainfall is therefore required to study the natural hazards. In this work, we study the characteristics of extreme monsoon rainfall including its intensity and frequency in the Garhwal Himalaya in India, with a focus on the Mandakini River Catchment, the site of devastating flood and multiple large landslides in 2013. We have used two long term rainfall gridded data sets: the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) product with daily rainfall data from 1951-2007 and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) product with daily rainfall data from 1901 to 2013. Two methods of Mann Kendall and Sen Slope estimator are used to identify the statistical significance and magnitude of trends in intensity and frequency of extreme monsoon rainfall respectively, at a significance level of 0.05. The autocorrelation in the time series of extreme monsoon rainfall is identified and reduced using the methods of: pre-whitening, trend-free pre-whitening, variance correction, and block bootstrap. We define extreme monsoon rainfall threshold as the 99th percentile of time series of rainfall values and any rainfall depth greater than 99th percentile is considered as extreme in nature. With the IMD data set, significant increasing trend in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall with slope magnitude of 0.55 and 0.02 respectively was obtained in the north of the Mandakini Catchment as identified by all four methods. Significant increasing trend in intensity with a slope magnitude of 0.3 is found in the middle of the catchment as identified by all methods except block bootstrap. In the south of the catchment, significant increasing trend in intensity with a slope magnitude of 0.86 for pre-whitening method and 0.28 for trend-free pre

  15. Assessing operative natural and anthropogenic forcing factors from long-term climate time series of Uttarakhand (India) in the backdrop of recurring extreme rainfall events over northwest Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnihotri, Rajesh; Dimri, A. P.; Joshi, H. M.; Verma, N. K.; Sharma, C.; Singh, J.; Sundriyal, Y. P.

    2017-05-01

    The entire Indo-Himalayan region from northwest (Kashmir) to northeast (Assam) is facing prevalence of floods and landslides in recent years causing massive loss of property, human and animal lives, infrastructure, and eventually threatening tourist activities substantially. Extremely intense rainfall event of 2013 C.E. (between 15 and 17 June) kicked off mammoth flash floods in the Kedarnath area of Uttarakhand state, resulting in huge socioeconomic losses to the state and country. Uttarakhand is an important hilly region attracting thousands of tourists every year owing to numerous shrines and forested mountainous tourist spots. Though recent studies indicate a plausible weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall overall, recurrent anomalous high rainfall events over northwest Himalaya (e.g. -2010, 2013, and 2016) point out the need for a thorough reassessment of long-term time series data of regional rainfall and ambient temperatures in order to trace signatures of a shifting pattern in regional meteorology, if any. Accordingly, here we investigate 100-year-long monthly rainfall and air temperature time series data for a selected grid (28.5°N, 31.25°N; 78.75°E, 81.25°E) covering most parts of Uttarakhand state. We also examined temporal variance in interrelationships among regional meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) and key global climate variability indices using advance statistical methods. Major findings are (i) significant increase in pre-monsoon air temperature over Uttarakhand after 1997, (ii) increasing upward trend in June-July rainfall and its relationship with regional May temperatures (iii) monsoonal rainfall (June, July, August, and September; JJAS) showing covariance with interannual variability in Eurasian snow cover (ESC) extent during the month of March, and (iv) enhancing tendency of anomalous high rainfall events during negative phases of Arctic Oscillation. Obtained results indicate that under warming scenario, JJ

  16. Impact of Climate Change on the Characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savita Patwardhan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A high resolution regional climate modeling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climate for Impact Studies, developed by Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK, is applied for Indian subcontinent to assess the impact of climate change on the summer monsoon onset characteristics. The present day simulation (1961–1990 with PRECIS is evaluated for the characteristics of onset over Kerala, southernmost part of India, where the monsoon sets in over Indian landmass. The meteorological parameters like precipitation, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR, and low level winds are analysed to study the monsoon onset over Kerala. The model is able to capture the sudden and sharp increase of rainfall associated with the onset. The rapid built-up of convective activity over the southeastern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is well represented by the model. PRECIS simulations, under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols, are analysed to study the likely changes in the onset characteristics in future, towards the end of present century (2071–2100. The analysis does not indicate significant difference in the mean onset dates in A2 and B2 scenarios. However, the variability of onset date is likely to be more towards the end of the 21st century especially in A2 scenario.

  17. Precessional and half-precessional climate forcing of Mid-Devonian monsoon-like dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. De Vleeschouwer

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available A Devonian magnetic susceptibility (MS record obtained on limestones ranging from the Uppermost-Eifelian to the Lower-Givetian and located on the southern border of the Dinant Synclinorium in Belgium was selected for time-series analysis. In these carbonate ramp and platform deposits, spectral analyses highlight persistent, high-frequency cycles in both the MS-signal and the microfacies curve, reflecting environmental and climate changes. These metre-scale variations in the MS-signal are interpreted as changes in the flux of magnetic minerals towards the marine system, most likely controlled by monsoon rainfall-intensity. By combining chrono- and biostratigraphic information with theoretical knowledge of sedimentation rates in different depositional environments, these cycles are interpreted as astronomically driven and dominated by precession. It is hypothesized that during precession minima (longitude of the perihelion ≈270° the trans-equatorial pressure gradient reaches a maximum and intensifies the northeasterly monsoonal circulation. The consequent increase in moisture transport towards the continent leads to enhanced precipitation and runoff, which, in turn, induces a higher flux of detrital material – including magnetic minerals responsible for the MS-signal – towards the marine system. Moreover, this unique high-resolution climate signal reveals half-precessional cycles. These cycles suggest that during precession maxima (longitude of the perihelion ≈90° southeasterly monsoonal circulation strengthened due to an increased inter-hemispheric pressure gradient.

  18. Primary sand-dune plant community and soil properties during the west-coast India monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willis A.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A seven-station interrupted belt transect was established that followed a previously observed plant zonation pattern across an aggrading primary coastal dune system in the dry tropical region of west-coast India. The dominant weather pattern is monsoon from June to November, followed by hot and dry winter months when rainfall is scarce. Physical and chemical soil characteristics in each of the stations were analysed on five separate occasions, the first before the onset of monsoon, three during and the last post-monsoon. The plant community pattern was confirmed by quadrat survey. A pH gradient decreased with distance from the shoreline. Nutrient concentrations were deficient, increasing only in small amounts until the furthest station inland. At that location, there was a distinct and abrupt pedological transition zone from psammite to humic soils. There was a significant increase over previous stations in mean organic matter, ammonium nitrate and soil-water retention, although the increase in real terms was small. ANOVA showed significant variation in electrical conductivity, phosphorus, calcium, magnesium and sodium concentrations over time. There was no relationship between soil chemistry characteristics and plant community structure over the transect. Ipomoea pes-caprae and Spinifex littoreus were restricted to the foredunes, the leguminous forb Alysicarpus vaginalis and Perotis indica to the two stations furthest from the strand. Ischaemum indicum, a C4 perennial grass species adopting an ephemeral strategy was, in contrast, ubiquitous to all stations.

  19. Simulation of High Impact Rainfall Events Over Southeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh Using MM5 Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Ahasan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulation of high impact rainfall events over southeastern hilly region of Bangladesh has been carried out using Fifth-Generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5 conducting two historical rainfall events, namely, 21 June, 2004 and 11 July, 2004. These extraordinary rainfall events were localized over the Rangamati region and recorded 304 mm and 337 mm rainfall on 21 June, 2004 and 11 July, 2004, respectively, over Rangamati within a span of 24 h. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different predicted and derived parameters. It is found that the seasonal monsoon trough has northerly position compared to normal and pass through Bangladesh extending up to northeast India for both cases. The heat low was found to be intense (996 hPa with strong north-south pressure gradient (12–15 hPa. The analysis of the geopotential height field at 200 hPa shows that the Tibetan high is shifted towards south by 7-8° latitudes with axis along 22–25°N for both cases. The analysis of the wind field shows that the areas of high impact rainfall exhibit strong convergence of low level monsoon circulation (~19–58 knots. The strong southwesterlies were found to exist up to 500 hPa level in both cases. The lower troposphere (925–500 hPa was characterized by the strong vertical wind shear (~9–18 ms−1 and high relative vorticity (~20–40 × 10−5 s−1. The analysis also shows that the areas of high impact rainfall events and neighbourhoods are characterized by strong low level convergence and upper level divergence. The strong southwesterly flow causes transportation of large amount of moisture from the Bay of Bengal towards Bangladesh, especially over the areas of Rangamati and neighbourhoods. The high percentage of relative humidity extends up to the upper troposphere along a narrow vertical column. Model produced details structure of the spatial patterns of rainfall over Bangladesh reasonably well though there are some

  20. A daytime climatological distribution of high opaque ice cloud classes over the Indian summer monsoon region observed from 25-year AVHRR data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Devasthale

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A daytime climatological spatio-temporal distribution of high opaque ice cloud (HOIC classes over the Indian subcontinent (0–40° N, 60° E–100° E is presented using 25-year data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs for the summer monsoon months. The HOICs are important for regional radiative balance, precipitation and troposphere-stratosphere exchange. In this study, HOICs are sub-divided into three classes based on their cloud top brightness temperatures (BT. Class I represents very deep convection (BT<220 K. Class II represents deep convection (220 K<=BT<233 K and Class III background convection (233 K<=BT<253 K. Apart from presenting finest spatial resolution (0.1×0.1 degrees and long-term climatology of such cloud classes from AVHRRs to date, this study for the first time illustrates on (1 how these three cloud classes are climatologically distributed during monsoon months, and (2 how their distribution changes during active and break monsoon conditions. It is also investigated that how many deep convective clouds reach the tropopause layer during individual monsoon months. It is seen that Class I and Class II clouds dominate the Indian subcontinent during monsoon. The movement of monsoon over continent is very well reflected in these cloud classes. During monsoon breaks strong suppression of convective activity is observed over the Arabian Sea and the western coast of India. On the other hand, the presence of such convective activity is crucial for active monsoon conditions and all-India rainfall. It is found that a significant fraction of HOICs (3–5% reach the tropopause layer over the Bay of Bengal during June and over the north and northeast India during July and August. Many cases are observed when clouds penetrate the tropopause layer and reach the lower stratosphere. Such cases mostly occur during June compared to the other months.

  1. Spatio-temporal analysis of sub-hourly rainfall over Mumbai, India: Is statistical forecasting futile?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Jitendra; Sekharan, Sheeba; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Zope, P. E.; Eldho, T. I.

    2017-04-01

    Mumbai, the commercial and financial capital of India, experiences incessant annual rain episodes, mainly attributable to erratic rainfall pattern during monsoons and urban heat-island effect due to escalating urbanization, leading to increasing vulnerability to frequent flooding. After the infamous episode of 2005 Mumbai torrential rains when only two rain gauging stations existed, the governing civic body, the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) came forward with an initiative to install 26 automatic weather stations (AWS) in June 2006 (MCGM 2007), which later increased to 60 AWS. A comprehensive statistical analysis to understand the spatio-temporal pattern of rainfall over Mumbai or any other coastal city in India has never been attempted earlier. In the current study, a thorough analysis of available rainfall data for 2006-2014 from these stations was performed; the 2013-2014 sub-hourly data from 26 AWS was found useful for further analyses due to their consistency and continuity. Correlogram cloud indicated no pattern of significant correlation when we considered the closest to the farthest gauging station from the base station; this impression was also supported by the semivariogram plots. Gini index values, a statistical measure of temporal non-uniformity, were found above 0.8 in visible majority showing an increasing trend in most gauging stations; this sufficiently led us to conclude that inconsistency in daily rainfall was gradually increasing with progress in monsoon. Interestingly, night rainfall was lesser compared to daytime rainfall. The pattern-less high spatio-temporal variation observed in Mumbai rainfall data signifies the futility of independently applying advanced statistical techniques, and thus calls for simultaneous inclusion of physics-centred models such as different meso-scale numerical weather prediction systems, particularly the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.

  2. Relationship of Rainfall Distribution and Water Level on Major Flood 2014 in Pahang River Basin, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nur Hishaam Sulaiman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change gives impact on extreme hydrological events especially in extreme rainfall. This article discusses about the relationship of rainfall distribution and water level on major flood 2014 in Pahang River Basin, Malaysia in helping decision makers to flood management system. Based on DID Malaysia rainfall station, 56 stations have being use as point in this research and it is including Pahang, Terengganu, Kelantan and Perak. Data set for this study were analysed with GIS analysis using interpolation method to develop Isohyet map and XLstat statistical software for PCA and SPC analyses. The results that were obtained from the Isohyet Map for three months was mid-November, rainfall started to increase about in range of 800mm-1200mm and the intensity keep increased to 2200mm at mid-December 2014. The high rainfall intensity sense at highland that is upstream of Pahang River. The PCA and SPC analysis also indicates the high relationship between rainfall and water level of few places at Pahang River. The Sg. Yap station and Kg. Serambi station obtained the high relationship of rainfall and water level with factor loading value at 0.9330 and 0.9051 for each station. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by climate such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. The findings of this study are important to local authorities by providing basic data as guidelines to the integrated river management at Pahang River Basin.

  3. Rainfall Simulations of Typhoon Morakot with Controlled Translation Speed Based on EnKF Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzu-Hsiung Yen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Typhoon Morakot produced record-breaking accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The combination of several factors resulted in this extreme weather event: the steep terrain in Taiwan, the prevailing south-westerly flow in the monsoon trough, Typhoon Goni over the northern South China Sea, and the slow translation speed of Morakot itself over Taiwan. In this study, the influence of the translation speed is particularly emphasized. Based on the EnKF data assimilation, an innovative method is applied to perform ensemble simulations with several designated translation speeds of Morakot using the WRF model. Thus the influence of the translation speed on the amount of accumulated rainfall over Taiwan can be quantitatively evaluated. In the control simulation with observed translation speed, the maximum amount and geographic pattern of accumulated rainfall during the landfall period of Morakot are generally consistent with the observations, though the detailed overall distributions of accumulated rainfall is mostly underestimated, resulting in the low bias of the frequency distribution of the accumulated rainfall. In a simulation with nearly-doubled translation speed of Morakot, the maximum accumulated rainfall is decreased by 33% than that in the control simulation, while the rainfall distribution over Taiwan remains similar. In addition, the 28 ensemble members can further provide additional information in terms of their spread and other statistics. The results from ensemble members reveal the usefulness of ensemble simulations for the quantitative precipitation forecast.

  4. On the climate model simulation of Indian monsoon low pressure systems and the effect of remote disturbances and systematic biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Richard C.; Martin, Gill M.

    2017-09-01

    Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic-scale systems forming over the Indian monsoon trough region, contributing substantially to seasonal mean summer monsoon rainfall there. Many current global climate models (GCMs), including the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), show deficient rainfall in this region, much of which has previously been attributed to remote systematic biases such as excessive equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) convection, while also substantially under-representing LPS and associated rainfall as they travel westwards across India. Here the sources and sensitivities of LPS to local, remote and short-timescale forcing are examined, in order to understand the poor representation in GCMs. An LPS tracking method is presented using TRACK feature tracking software for comparison between re-analysis data-sets, MetUM GCM and regional climate model (RCM) simulations. RCM simulations, at similar horizontal resolution to the GCM and forced with re-analysis data at the lateral boundaries, are carried out with different domains to examine the effects of remote biases. The results suggest that remote biases contribute significantly to the poor simulation of LPS in the GCM. As these remote systematic biases are common amongst many current GCMs, it is likely that GCMs are intrinsically capable of representing LPS, even at relatively low resolution. The main problem areas are time-mean excessive EIO convection and poor representation of precursor disturbances transmitted from the Western Pacific. The important contribution of the latter is established using RCM simulations forced by climatological 6-hourly lateral boundary conditions, which also highlight the role of LPS in moving rainfall from steep orography towards Central India.

  5. Analyzing Seasonal and Interannual Changes in the West African Monsoon with Machine Learning Approaches: Self-Organizing Mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gordon, M.; Larsen, L.; Chiang, J. C. H.

    2016-12-01

    Here we present findings on recent interannual and seasonal-scale changes in the West African monsoon system. Using self-organizing mapping (SOM) for inductive pattern discovery, we examine the distribution and characteristics of rainfall over space and time at a finer level of detail than is possible using single or multi-variate spatially constrained indices. Unlike more traditional empirical orthogonal function analysis, SOM produces physically representative patterns that we use to investigate precipitation patterns in this region: spatially, annually, and intra-annually. Existing literature demonstrates an increase in recent years in the variability of annual precipitation in West Africa; projections indicate a possible shift in precipitation toward later in the season. Through self-organizing mapping, we examine the role of the myriad underlying spatio-temporal precipitation patterns in the overall changes in variability and timing of precipitation. We distinguish, at inter- and intra-annual time scales, the contributions of: changes in the timing of shifts between precipitation patterns; changes in the precipitation patterns themselves; large scale precipitation patterns associated with the monsoon; and small scale patterns associated with mesoscale systems. We find that observed changes in rainfall dynamics, regionally and sub-regionally, are associated with both changes in the timing of shifts between rainfall patterns and changes in the rainfall patterns themselves. The spatial-temporal analysis of precipitation dynamics in West Africa points toward monsoon timing as the driving factor behind broader precipitation trends observed in the region. We compare SOM patterns derived from observational data against those derived from model data to evaluate model performance. Comparison of observation- and model-derived SOM patterns is a novel spatially and temporally detailed metric. Examining precipitation in West Africa with the higher-dimensional, more

  6. Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Vishnampettai G; Roy, Priyamvada; Das, Shukla; Mogha, Narendra Singh; Bansal, Ajay Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi. The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively. The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months. This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.

  7. Monsoon low-pressure systems over India: a climatology study and high-resolution climate sensitivity simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørland, S.; Sorteberg, A.; Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.

    2013-12-01

    Monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS) are thought to be one of the most rain-bearing synoptic scale systems that develop during the Indian monsoon. Because of the large socioeconomic impact these cyclonic storms may have on the Indian community, it is important to understand their dynamical and thermodynamic structure. A cyclone tracking algorithm has been used to detect the monsoon LPS in the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the time period 1979-2010. By using both the ERA-Interim precipitation and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) daily gridded rainfall, the LPS that generated an extreme rainfall event, defined by the 99.5 percentile, is picked out, and analyzed. Composite and statistical analysis has been preformed on different ERA-Interim parameters that has been chosen based on a simple description of the precipitation. The general structure of the LPS is seen in the different composite, with a pronounced cold core at lower levels and warm core aloft. The results from the composite also suggest that it is the latent heat release that induces the strong upward motion, and is thus important for driving the monsoon LPS. By performing a stepwise linear regression we show that we can describe a large part of the precipitation variability within a monsoon LPS, with only a few meteorological parameters. The sensitivity to a change in one of the meteorological parameters is also investigated, and the precipitation shows largest sensitivity to a change in the temperature at 950hPa, and to the vertical velocity and specific humidity at 750hPa. Next, 10 of the monsoon low-pressure systems detected by the tracking algorithm, is picked out and simulated with the high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The horizontal resolution is 4km. For each case, 3 different simulations are performed: one control run, where the initial and lateral boundary conditions are from the ERA-Interim reanalysis; and two perturbed runs. The method for generating the

  8. Asian Summer Monsoon Anomalies Induced by Aerosol Direct Forcing: The Role of the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, M. K.; Kim, K. M.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we present results of a numerical study using the NASA finite-volume GCM to elucidate a plausible mechanism for aerosol impact on the Asian summer monsoon involving interaction with physical processes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). During the premonsoon season of March April, dusts from the deserts of western China, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the Middle East are transported into and stacked up against the northern and southern slopes of the TP. The absorption of solar radiation by dust heats up the elevated surface air over the slopes. On the southern slopes, the atmospheric heating is reinforced by black carbon from local emission. The heated air rises via dry convection, creating a positive temperature anomaly in the mid-to-upper troposphere over the TP relative to the region to the south. In May through early June in a manner akin to an elevated heat pump , the rising hot air forced by the increasing heating in the upper troposphere, draws in warm and moist air over the Indian subcontinent, setting the stage for the onset of the South Asia summer monsoon. Our results suggest that increased dust loading coupled with black carbon emission from local sources in northern India during late spring may lead to an advance of the rainy periods and subsequently an intensification of the Indian summer monsoon. The enhanced rainfall over India is associated with the development of an aerosol-induced large-scale sea level pressure anomaly pattern, which causes the East Asia (Mei-yu) rain belt to shift northwestward, suppressing rainfall over East Asia and the adjacent oceanic regions.

  9. Assessing Holocene water level changes of Lake Turkana, Kenya with potential linkages to monsoon variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloszies, C.; Forman, S. L.; Wright, D. K.

    2012-12-01

    This study focuses on better defining water level variability in the past 10 ka for Lake Turkana, Kenya. The water level of Lake Turkana was approximately 90m higher than today ca. 8 ka years ago, and in the past century lake levels have varied by up to 15 m. Lake level is especially sensitive to shifts in water balance with changes in regional rainfall linked to the relative strength of the Indian Ocean Monsoon. Variations in monsoonal precipitation in Kenya may be controlled by distinct modes of the Indian Ocean Dipole, with one mode associated with increased sea surface temperatures and concomitant heavy rainfall in the Turkana basin, and the other mode resulting in low precipitation. Well preserved beach ridges up to 90 m above present water level occur around the lake representing a record of varying elevations of lake level still-stands during the Holocene. Along this prograded strand plain there is evidence of a shift in human subsistence from fishing villages to pastoral encampments, possibly associated with pronounced mid-Holocene drying and a precipitous (>30 m) fall in lake level ca. between 7 and 5 ka. However, a recent GPS campaign of beach ridges on the east and west sides of the lake reveal variability in highstand beach ridge elevations, implying deferential tectonic deformation across the basin and possible crustal warping due to hydroisostatic processes. Radiocarbon dating of aquatic shells will resolve the ages of beach ridges and these ages will be tested by direct dating of littoral quartz grains by OSL. Stratigraphic exposures of this littoral system reveal new evidence for lake still-stands, transgressions and regressions. Ultimately, the data will constrain a basin hydrologic model to assess the catchment changes and evaporative conditions required to yield the tens of meters of lake level change in the Holocene and provide new insights into the magnitude and linkage to monsoon variability.

  10. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunning, C. M.; Turner, A. G.; Brayshaw, D. J.

    2015-06-01

    India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency's New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterized by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterized by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in

  11. Large-scale urbanization effects on eastern Asian summer monsoon circulation and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Haishan; Zhang, Ye; Yu, Miao; Hua, Wenjian; Sun, Shanlei; Li, Xing; Gao, Chujie

    2016-07-01

    Impacts of large-scale urbanization over eastern China on East Asian summer monsoon circulation and climate are investigated by comparing three 25-year climate simulations with and without incorporating modified land cover maps reflecting two different idealized large-scale urbanization scenarios. The global atmospheric general circulation model CAM4.0 that includes an urban canopy parameterization scheme is employed in this study. The large-scale urbanization over eastern China leads to a significant warming over most of the expanded urban areas, characterized by an increase of 3 K for surface skin temperature, 2.25 K for surface air temperature, significant warming of both daily minimum and daily maximum air temperatures, and 0.4 K for the averaged urban-rural temperature difference. The urbanization is also accompanied by an increase in surface sensible heat flux, a decrease of the net surface shortwave and long-wave radiation, and an enhanced surface thermal heating to the atmosphere in most Eastern Asia areas. It is noted that the responses of the East Asian summer monsoon circulation exhibits an evident month-to-month variation. Across eastern China, the summer monsoon in early summer is strengthened by the large-scale urbanization, but weakened (intensified) over southern (northern) part of East Asia in late summer. Meanwhile, early summer precipitation is intensified in northern and northeastern China and suppressed in south of ~35°N, but late summer precipitation is evidently suppressed over northeast China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan with enhancements in southern China, the South China Sea, and the oceanic region south and southeast of the Taiwan Island. This study highlights the evidently distinct month-to-month responses of the monsoon system to the large-scale urbanization, which might be attributed to different basic states, internal feedbacks (cloud, rainfall) as well as a dynamic adjustment of the atmosphere. Further investigation is required

  12. Instrumental evidence of an unusually strong West African Monsoon in the 19th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, David; Ordoñez, Paulina; Ribera, Pedro; Peña-Ortiz, Cristina; Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo; Vega, Inmaculada; Gomez, Francisco de Paula

    2016-04-01

    The precipitation in the Sahel -which is mainly controlled by the dynamics of the West African Monsoon-, has been in the spot of the climate community for the last three decades due to the persistence of the drought period that started in the 1970s. Unfortunately, reliable meteorological series in this area are only available since the beginning of the 20th Century, thus limiting our understanding of the significance of this period from a long term perspective. Currently, our knowledge of what happened in times previous to the 20th Century essentially relies in documentary or proxy sources. In this work, we present the first instrumental evidence of a 50 year-long period characterised by an unusually strong West African monsoon in the19th Century. Following the recent advances in the generation of climatic indices based on data from ship's logbooks, we used historical wind observations to compute a new index (the so-called ASWI) for characterising the strength of the West African Monsoon. The ASWI is based in the persistence of the southwesterly winds in the [29°W-17°W;7°N-13°N] area and it has been possible to compute it since 1790 for July and since 1839 for August and September. We show that the ASWI is a reliable measure of the monsoon's strength and the Sahelian rainfall. Our new series clearly shows the well-known drought period starting in the 1970s. During this dry period, the West African Monsoon was particularly weak and interestingly, we found that since then, the correlations with different climatic patterns such as the Pacific and Atlantic "El Niño" changed significantly in relation to those of the previous century. Remarkably, our results also show that the period 1839-1890 was characterised by an unusually strong and persistent monsoon. Notwithstanding, two of the few dry years within this period were concurrent with large volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere. This latter result supports the recently suggested relationship between major

  13. Stalagmite-derived Last Glacial Maximum - Mid Holocene Indian Monsoon Record from Krem Mawmluh, Meghalaya, NE India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lone, M. A.; Routh, J.; Kumar, V.; Mangini, A.; Rangarajan, R.; Ghosh, P.; Munnuru Singamshetty, K.; Shen, C. C.; Ahmad, S. M.; Mii, H. S.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal reversals in monsoon winds strongly influence rainfall patterns on the Indian sub-continent regulating the socio-economy of south Asian region. High-resolution centennial-millennial scale records of climate change from the core zone of the monsoon impacted region are nonetheless very few. Here, we report Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability record from an 87-cm long stalagmite (KM-1) from Krem Mawmluh in the Khasi Hills, Meghalaya. The absolute dated stalagmite record ranges from 22.7 (LGM) to 6.7 ka (Mid Holocene), revealing last glacial-interglacial paleoclimatic changes over the Indian sub-continent. A sharp change in δ18O ( 5‰) and growth rate post Younger Dryas (YD) is marked by continued rapid speleogenesis in KM-1 and coincides with monsoon intensification during the early Holocene. Prominent multi-centennial to millennial scale dry phases in ISM activity are observed from LGM to YD. During early to mid-Holocene, the record shows significant multi-decadal to centennial scale changes. The high frequency δ18O variations referring to abrupt changes in ISM activity are believed to be driven by changes in temperature and shifting of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.

  14. Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M. Senthilkumar (Newgen Imaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National. Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizon- tal resolution of 2.5◦ (latitude/longitude) have been used as first guess in the objective analysis scheme. The additional asynoptic ...

  15. Circulation characteristics of a monsoon depression during ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    It requires the objective comparison of high and low-resolution analysis datasets in assessing the specific convective features of a monsoon depression. For this purpose, reanalysis datasets of NCAR/NCEP (National Center for Atmospheric Research/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) at a horizontal resolution ...

  16. An interdecadal American rainfall mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2009-04-01

    Low-frequency climate variability across the American continents and surrounding oceans is analyzed by application of singular value decomposition (SVD) to gauge-based rainfall and environmental anomaly fields in the period 1901-2002. A 5-year filter is used to maintain a focus on interdecadal cycles. The rainfall regime of particular interest (mode 1) is when West Africa and the Caribbean share positive loading and North and South America share negative loading. Wavelet cospectral energy is found at ˜8, 24, and 50 years for Caribbean/West African zones and 16 and 32 years for North/South America. West Africa and South America exhibit antiphase multidecadal variability, while North America and the Caribbean rainfall exhibit quasi-decadal cycles. The rainfall associations are nonstationary. In the early 1900s, Caribbean and South American rainfall were antiphase. Since 1930 low-frequency oscillations of North American (West African) rainfall have been positively (negatively) associated with South America. Low-frequency oscillations of North American rainfall have been consistently antiphase with respect to Caribbean rainfall; however, West Africa rainfall fluctuations have been in phase with the Caribbean more in the period 1920-1950 than at other times. Hemispheric-scale environmental SVD patterns and scores were compared with the leading rainfall modes. The north-south gradient modes in temperature are influential in respect of mode 1 rainfall, while east-west gradients relate to mode 2 (northern Brazil) rainfall. The ability of the GFDL2.1 coupled (ocean-atmosphere) general circulation model to represent interdecadal rainfall modes in the 20th century was evaluated. While mode 2 is reproduced, mode 1 remains elusive.

  17. Continuous rainfall simulation: 2. A regionalized daily rainfall generation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Westra, Seth; Sharma, Ashish; Srikanthan, Ratnasingham

    2012-01-01

    This paper is the second of two in the current issue that presents a framework for simulating continuous (uninterrupted) rainfall sequences at both gaged and ungaged locations. The ultimate objective of the papers is to present a methodology for stochastically generating continuous subdaily rainfall sequences at any location such that the statistics at a range of aggregation scales are preserved. In this paper we complete the regionalized algorithm by adopting a rationale for generating daily sequences at any location by sampling daily rainfall records from "nearby" gages with statistically similar rainfall sequences.The approach consists of two distinct steps: first the identification of a set of locations with daily rainfall sequences that are statistically similar to the location of interest, and second the development of an algorithm to sample daily rainfall from those locations. In the first step, the similarity between all bivariate combinations of 2708 daily rainfall records across Australia were considered, and a logistic regression model was formulated to predict the similarity between stations as a function of a number of physiographic covariates. Based on the model results, a number of nearby locations with adequate daily rainfall records are identified for any ungaged location of interest (the "target" location), and then used as the basis for stochastically generating the daily rainfall sequences. The continuous simulation algorithm was tested at five locations where long historical daily rainfall records are available for comparison, and found to perform well in representing the distributional and dependence attributes of the observed daily record. These daily sequences were then used to disaggregate to a subdaily time step using the rainfall state-based disaggregation approach described in the first paper, and found to provide a good representation of the continuous rainfall sequences at the location of interest.

  18. Seasonal Transitions and the Westerly Jet in the Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) was characterized by a trend to weaker monsoon intensity paced by orbital insolation. Here, we attribute the stronger EASM intensity in the early-mid Holocene to changes in the timing of the transition between the EASM seasonal stages - Spring, pre Mei- Yu, Mei-Yu, and Summer - during that time. Following the recent 'jet transition hypothesis' (Chiang et al., 2015), we explore the role of north-south displacement of the westerlies relative to the Tibetan Plateau that is hypothesized to control the downstream EASM seasonality changes across the Holocene. To this end, we analyze model simulations of the Holocene EASM, compare the simulated Holocene climate with the paleodata observations, and examine the role of atmospheric circulation and specifically the westerlies in modulating the East Asia summer climate. The PMIP3 climate model simulations suggest that, compared to the pre-industrial, the Mei-Yu onset and the transition from Mei-Yu to Summer rainfall occur earlier in the mid-Holocene. The advanced seasonal rainfall transition is accompanied by the weakened and northward-shifted upstream westerlies. In our atmospheric general circulation model (coupled to a slab ocean) simulations of various time periods across the Holocene (9ka, 6ka, 3ka, and pre-industrial), we quantitatively show that the timing and the length of each rainfall stage are closely related to the jet position over East Asia. We also show that the simulated changes in the maximum annual rainfall band and dust emission over East Asia largely agree with the paleo-proxy observations. In addition, we find that changes to the seasonal rainfall transitions, latitudinal westerly position, and stationary eddy activity over East Asia co-vary across the Holocene. In particular, we argue that the changes in the rainfall seasonal transitions are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road Pattern', riding along the

  19. Observed and projected changes in temperature and rainfall in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng Chan Thoeun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Temperature and rainfall patterns in Cambodia are governed by monsoons and characterized by two major wet and dry seasons. The average annual rainfall is 1400 mm in the central low land regions and may reach 4000 mm in certain coastal zones or in highland areas. The annual average temperature is 28 °C, with an average maximum temperature of 38 °C in April and an average minimum temperature of 17 °C in January. This paper presents the climate change scenarios using MAGICC–SCENGEN program, which links emissions scenarios with global and regional climate change and has adopted the regional climate model (PRECIS in combination with a number of GCM models with resolution of 50×50 km, using observation data and two historical and future climate data sets generated by RCM model downscaling under the two emission scenarios SRES A2 and SRES B2. Projections of maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall patterns from 2008 to 2099 are described. For future studies, daily data are required perform vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

  20. Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

    2017-10-01

    Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

  1. The INCOMPASS project field and modelling campaign: Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Andrew; Bhat, Ganapati; Evans, Jonathan; Madan, Ranju; Marsham, John; Martin, Gill; Mitra, Ashis; Mrudula, Gm; Parker, Douglas; Pattnaik, Sandeep; Rajagopal, En; Taylor, Christopher; Tripathi, Sachchida

    2017-04-01

    The INCOMPASS project uses data from a field and aircraft measurement campaign during the 2016 monsoon onset to better understand and predict monsoon rainfall. The monsoon supplies the majority of water in South Asia, however modelling and forecasting the monsoon from days to the season ahead is limited by large model errors that develop quickly. Likely problems lie in physical parametrizations such as convection, the boundary layer and land surface. At the same time, lack of detailed observations prevents more thorough understanding of monsoon circulation and its interaction with the land surface; a process governed by boundary layer and convective cloud dynamics. From May to July 2016, INCOMPASS used a modified BAe-146 jet aircraft operated by the UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM), for the first project of this scale in India. The India and UK team flew around 100 hours of science sorties from bases in northern and southern India. Flights from Lucknow in the northern plains took measurements to the west and southeast to allow sampling of the complete contrast from dry desert air to the humid environment over the north Bay of Bengal. These routes were repeated in the pre-monsoon and monsoon phases, measuring contrasting surface and boundary layer structures. In addition, flights from the southern base in Bengaluru measured contrasts from the Arabian Sea, across the intense rains of the Western Ghats mountains, over the rain shadow in southeast India and over the southern Bay of Bengal. Flight planning was performed with the aid of forecasts from a new UK Met Office 4km limited area model. INCOMPASS also installed a network of surface flux towers, as well as operating a cloud-base ceilometer and performing intensive radiosonde launches from a supersite in Kanpur. Here we will outline preliminary results from the field campaign including new observations of the surface, boundary layer structure and atmospheric profiles from aircraft data. We

  2. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Wesson, Stephen M.; Pegram, Geoffrey G. S.

    2004-01-01

    There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality) on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and...

  3. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Wesson, Stephen M.; Pegram, Geoffrey G. S.

    2004-01-01

    There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality) on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast...

  4. Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priya, P.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, Milind; Houze, Robert A.

    2016-11-21

    Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June to September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basin have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.

  5. Changing monsoon and midlatitude circulation interactions over the Western Himalayas and possible links to occurrences of extreme precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priya, P.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, Milind; Houze, Robert A.

    2017-10-01

    Historical rainfall records reveal that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, during the summer monsoon (June-September) season, have significantly risen over the Western Himalayas (WH) and adjoining upper Indus basin since 1950s. Using multiple datasets, the present study investigates the possible coincidences between an increasing trend of precipitation extremes over WH and changes in background flow climatology. The present findings suggest that the combined effects of a weakened southwest monsoon circulation, increased activity of transient upper-air westerly troughs over the WH region, enhanced moisture supply by southerly winds from the Arabian Sea into the Indus basin have likely provided favorable conditions for an increased frequency of certain types of extreme precipitation events over the WH region in recent decades.

  6. The onshore and offshore propagation of convective storms in the Western Ghats region and how understanding these processes may contribute to improving predictions of the Indian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willetts, Peter; Marsham, John; Birch, Cathryn; Parker, Doug; Reeder, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The principal moisture source of the Indian summer monsoon is the low-level west-to-southwesterly jet winds. These cross the Arabian Sea to reach the coastal Western Ghats mountains, which receive some of the highest monsoon rainfall totals in the whole sub-continent. Deep convection often develops upstream of the Ghats over the sea as well as over the mountains. Using CMORPH satellite rainfall retrievals, we have observed that, as in other regions of coastal orography, the majority of rainfall forms close to the orography in the afternoon, and then propagates offshore overnight. As well as offshore propagating rainfall, there are also distinct events where rainfall propagates onshore. New convection-permitting model simulations provide new capability to simulate the monsoon, but even the 2.2km grid-spacing configuration of the Met Office Unified Model with no convective parametrisation fails to capture the main process of rainfall propagating offshore, with rainfall consistently forming upstream of the orography, and then propagating onshore. During the periods with the most onshore propagation, there are fewer storms, the low-level westerly winds are stronger over the Indian subcontinent and eastern Arabian Sea and the height at which the westerlies transition to upper-level easterly winds is higher ( 400 hPa), when compared to periods with more offshore propagation, for which winds transition at 600 hPa. On 7-day timescales, onshore/offshore periods of rainfall appear to be related to anomalous cool/warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial west Pacific, which appear to influence the wind differences over India. The unified model wind profiles show no systematic difference to observations at coastal stations. Over the eastern Arabian Sea, the Western Ghats, and in north central India, the model generates too many storms that move eastward, and too few that move westward. The model therefore appears to capture the variations in the environment that control

  7. Reconstruction of Indian summer monsoon winds and precipitation over the past 10,000 years using equatorial pacific SST proxy records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Emily C.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Molnar, Peter H.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Marchitto, Thomas M.

    2017-02-01

    Using a multiproxy reduced dimension methodology, we reconstruct fields of Arabian Sea summer wind stress curl and Indian monsoon rainfall anomalies since early Holocene using sea surface temperature (SST) proxies (Mg/Ca and alkenones) from 27 locations scattered across the equatorial Pacific. Reconstructions of summer wind stress curl reveal positive anomalies of ˜30% greater than present day off the coastlines of Oman and Yemen at 10 ka, suggesting enhanced ocean upwelling and an enhanced monsoon jet during this time. Positive wind stress curl anomalies in these regions continued but weakened to ˜12% greater than present day at 6 ka. Wind stress curl anomalies increased by about 8% from 6 to 4 ka but declined again until 2 ka. Positive anomalies in wind stress curl during the early to middle Holocene are consistent with greater early Holocene abundances of the upwelling indicator Globigerina bulloides in the western Arabian Sea, which accumulates most rapidly in present climates during periods of marked upwelling. Spatial rainfall reconstructions reveal the greatest difference in precipitation at 10 ka over the core monsoon region (˜20-60% greater than present day) and concurrently the greatest deficit in rainfall in North East India and on the eastern side of the Western Ghats (˜10-30% less than present day). Specifically, reconstructions for 10 ka reveal 40-60% greater rainfall than present day over northwest India. These findings advance the hypothesis that teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific contributed to, if not accounted for, greater early to middle Holocene wetness over India as recorded by various (e.g., cave, lacustrine, and discharge) paleoclimate proxies throughout the monsoon region.

  8. Predictability and prediction of Indian summer monsoon by CFSv2: implication of the initial shock effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Huang, Bohua; Marx, L.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

    2018-01-01

    This study evaluates the seasonal predictability of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall using the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), the current operational forecast model for subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). From a 50-year CFSv2 simulation, 21 wet, dry and normal ISM cases are chosen for a set of seasonal "predictions" with initial states in each month from January to May to conduct predictability experiments. For each prediction, a five-member ensemble is generated with perturbed atmospheric initial states and all predictions are integrated to the end of September. Based on the measures of correlation and root mean square error, the prediction skill decreases with lead month, with the initial states with the shortest lead (May initial states) generally showing the highest skill for predicting the summer mean (June to September; JJAS) rainfall, zonal wind at 850 hPa and sea surface temperature over the ISM region in the perfect model scenario. These predictability experiments are used to understand the finding reported by some recent studies that the NCEP CFSv2 seasonal retrospective forecasts generally have higher skill in predicting the ISM rainfall anomalies from February initial states than from May ones. Comparing the May climatologies generated by the February and May initialized CFSv2 retrospective forecasts, it is found that the latter shows larger bias over the Arabian Sea, with stronger monsoon winds, precipitation and surface latent heat flux. Although the atmospheric bias diminishes quickly after May, an accompanying cold bias persists in the Arabian Sea for several months. It is argued that a similar phenomenon does not occur in the predictability experiments in the perfect model scenario, because the initial shock is negligible in these experiments by design. Therefore, it is possible that the stronger model bias and initial shock in the May CFSv2 retrospective forecasts

  9. Relevance of Indian Summer Monsoon and its Tropical Indo-Pacific Climate Drivers for the Kharif Crop Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amat, Hemadri Bhusan; Karumuri, Ashok

    2017-12-01

    While the Indian agriculture has earlier been dependent on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), a multifold increase in irrigation and storage facilities raise a question whether the ISMR is still as relevant. We revisit this question using the latest observational climate datasets as well as the crop production data and find that the ISMR is still relevant for the Kharif crop production (KCP). In addition, in the recent changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific driver evolutions and frequency, particularly more frequent occurrence of the ENSO Modokis in place of the canonical ENSOs, we carry out a correlation analysis to estimate the impact of the various Indo-Pacific climate drivers on the rainfall of individual Indian states for the period 1998-2013, for which crop production data for the most productive Indian states, namely West Bengal, Odisha, United Andhra Pradesh (UAP), Haryana, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are available. The results suggest that the KCP of the respective states are significantly correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall at the 95-99% confidence levels. Importantly, we find that the NINO 3.4 and ENSO Modoki indices have a statistically significant correlation with the KCP of most of the Indian states, particularly in states such as UAP and Karnataka, through induction of anomalous local convergence/divergence, well beyond the equatorial Indian Ocean. The KCP of districts in UAP also has a significant response to all the climate drivers, having implication for prediction of local crop yield.

  10. The effect of aerosol optical depth on rainfall with reference to meteorology over metro cities in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunaseelan, Indira; Bhaskar, B Vijay; Muthuchelian, K

    2014-01-01

    Rainfall is a key link in the global water cycle and a proxy for changing climate; therefore, proper assessment of the urban environment's impact on rainfall will be increasingly important in ongoing climate diagnostics and prediction. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements on the monsoon seasons of the years 2008 to 2010 were made over four metro regional hotspots in India. The highest average of AOD was in the months of June and July for the four cities during 3 years and lowest was in September. Comparing the four regions, Kolkata was in the peak of aerosol contamination and Chennai was in least. Pearson correlation was made between AOD with climatic parameters. Some changes in the parameters were found during drought year. Temperature, cloud parameters, and humidity play an important role for the drought conditions. The role of aerosols, meteorological parameters, and their impacts towards the precipitation during the monsoon was studied.

  11. Comments on "The "Elevated Heat Pump" Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: "Grounded" in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    In their recent paper Nigam and Bollasina [2010, hereafter NB] claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Km 2006). We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from a lack of understanding and an out-of-context interpretation of the hypothesis. It was argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May as evidences against the EHP hypothesis. They cannot be more wrong in that argument. First, Lau and Kim [2006, hereafter, LKO6] never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are non-local in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. Third, the correlation maps shown in NB, including the increased convection over the Bay of Bengal is not the response to EHP but rather represents the large-scale circulation that provides the build-up of the aerosols, before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no wash-out by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols.

  12. Identification and Diagnosis of Rainfall Types over Southern West Africa Using Satellite and Rain Gauge Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maranan, Marlon; Fink, Andreas H.; Amekudzi, Leonard K.; Atiah, Winifred A.

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall over Southern West Africa (SWA) is mainly controlled by the West African Monsoon circulation. Not much is known, however, about the (thermo-)dynamic environmental conditions and storm dynamics of various regional rainfall systems that contribute to the total annual rainfall. This study exploits both satellite and rain gauge measurements to quantify the contribution and to examine the importance of different rainfall types in SWA. For the period of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 1998-2014, the rainfall types are identified by analyzing the 3-D reflectivity structure using scans of the TRMM Precipitation Radar (TRMM-PR). Since TRMM-PR scans only provide instantaneous snapshots, the rainfall events are then traced back and forward in time with observations from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) over the overlapping period of 2004-2014 to obtain information about their life cycle. The composition of the ensemble of the different rainfall types exhibits a substantial regional variability across SWA. Strong convection (Radar echo > 40 dBZ) generally makes a dominant contribution to the number of rainfall events and to the total rainfall amount. However, the influence of deeper (40 dBZ echo at altitudes > 10 km) and wider (Area of 40 dBZ echo > 1000 km2) systems on the total rainfall amount increases going farther northward into the continent. Additionally, the number of tracks of those systems features relative minima along the Ivorian and Ghanaian-Togolese coast, the latter reflecting the climatologically dry Dahomey Gap. In contrast, local warm rain from isolated shallow convection develops more often along the immediate coast line. Yet, their contribution to total rainfall remains negligible and is almost non-existent further north. Compared with high-resolution rain gauge data around Kumasi, Ghana, for the year 2016, it can be assumed that warm rain events show an even higher occurrence frequency. Likewise, their

  13. On the dust load and rainfall relationship in South Asia: an analysis from CMIP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Charu; Ganguly, Dilip; Dash, S. K.

    2017-03-01

    This study is aimed at examining the consistency of the relationship between load of dust and rainfall simulated by different climate models and its implication for the Indian summer monsoon system. Monthly mean outputs of 12 climate models, obtained from the archive of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period 1951-2004, are analyzed to investigate the relationship between dust and rainfall. Comparative analysis of the model simulated precipitation with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall, CRU TS3.21 and GPCP version 2.2 data sets show significant differences between the spatial patterns of JJAS rainfall as well as annual cycle of rainfall simulated by various models and observations. Similarly, significant inter-model differences are also noted in the simulation of load of dust, nevertheless it is further noted that most of the CMIP5 models are able to capture the major dust sources across the study region. Although the scatter plot analysis and the lead-lag pattern correlation between the dust load and the rainfall show strong relationship between the dust load over distant sources and the rainfall in the South Asian region in individual models, the temporal scale of this association indicates large differences amongst the models. Our results caution that it would be pre-mature to draw any robust conclusions on the time scale of the relationship between dust and the rainfall in the South Asian region based on either CMIP5 results or limited number of previous studies. Hence, we would like to emphasize upon the fact that any conclusions drawn on the relationship between the dust load and the South Asian rainfall using model simulation is highly dependent on the degree of complexity incorporated in those models such as the representation of aerosol life cycle, their interaction with clouds, precipitation and other components of the climate system.

  14. Are interdecadal sea level changes along the Indian coast influenced by variability of monsoon rainfall?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    to Mumbai occurs within a season, but the slow mixing in the ocean forces changes in the cross-shore density gradient on longer timescales. This density gradient forces a two-layer geostrophic circulation, with a surface current, which flows...

  15. Impact of 1990-'95 ENSO/WEPO event on Indian monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.

    The negative phase of the 1990-'95 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the associated Warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean (WEPO) was the longest observed in the 113 years of its recorded history, compared to its normal duration of 1 to 2...

  16. Simple multiple regression model for long range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Murthy, T.V.R.

    ) is noticed between ISMR and SSTA over southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) in the preceding January. Significant and positive correlation (0.61: significant at greater than 99% level) is also observed with the SSTA over northwest of Australia (NWA) in the preceding...

  17. Relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and position of Pacific Ocean warm pool

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.; Sastry, J.S

    stream_size 5 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Indian_J_Mar_Sci_19_246.pdf.txt stream_source_info Indian_J_Mar_Sci_19_246.pdf.txt Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 ...

  18. FROM RAINFALL DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisuru Sendanayake

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There are many correlations developed to predict incident solar radiation at a givenlocation developed based on geographical and meteorological parameters. However, allcorrelations depend on accurate measurement and availability of weather data such assunshine duration, cloud cover, relative humidity, maximum and minimumtemperatures etc, which essentially is a costly exercise in terms of equipment andlabour. Sri Lanka being a tropical island of latitudinal change of only 30 along thelength of the country, the meteorological factors govern the amount of incidentradiation. Considering the cloud formation and wind patterns over Sri Lanka as well asthe seasonal rainfall patterns, it can be observed that the mean number of rainy dayscan be used to predict the monthly average daily global radiation which can be used forcalculations in solar related activities conveniently.

  19. The impact of soil moisture on the spin up of 1-D Noah land surface model at a site in monsoonal region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, A.; Mandal, M.

    2014-12-01

    Model spin-up is the process through which the model is adequately equilibrated to ensure balance between the mass fields and velocity fields. In this study, an offline 1-D Noah land surface model (LSM) has been used to investigate the impact of soil moisture on the model spin up at Kharagpur, India which is a site in monsoonal region. The model is integrated recursively for 3-years to assess its spin-up behavior. Several numerical experiments are performed to investigate the impact of initial soil moisture and subsequent dry or wet condition on model spin-up. These include simulations with different initial soil moisture content (observed soil moisture; dry soil; moderately wet soil; saturated soil), simulations initialized before different rain conditions (no rain; infrequent rain; continuous rain) and simulations initialized in different seasons (Winter, Spring, Summer/Pre-Monsoon, Monsoon and Autumn). It is noted that the model has significantly longer spin-up when initialized with very low initial soil moisture content than with higher soil moisture content. It is also seen that in general, simulations initialized just before a continuous rainfall event have the least spin-up time. In a region affected by the monsoon, such as Kharagpur, this observation is reinforced by the results from the simulations initialized in different seasons. It is seen that for monsoonal region, the model spin-up time is least for simulations initialized during Summer/Pre-monsoon. Model initialized during the Monsoon has a longer spin-up than that initialized in any other season. It appears that the model has shorter spin-up if it reaches the equilibrium state predominantly via drying process. It is also observed that the spin-up of offline 1-D Noah LSM may be as low as two months under quasi-equilibrium condition if the initial soil moisture content and time of start of simulations are chosen carefully.

  20. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  1. Radar rainfall image repair techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M. Wesson

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available There are various quality problems associated with radar rainfall data viewed in images that include ground clutter, beam blocking and anomalous propagation, to name a few. To obtain the best rainfall estimate possible, techniques for removing ground clutter (non-meteorological echoes that influence radar data quality on 2-D radar rainfall image data sets are presented here. These techniques concentrate on repairing the images in both a computationally fast and accurate manner, and are nearest neighbour techniques of two sub-types: Individual Target and Border Tracing. The contaminated data is estimated through Kriging, considered the optimal technique for the spatial interpolation of Gaussian data, where the 'screening effect' that occurs with the Kriging weighting distribution around target points is exploited to ensure computational efficiency. Matrix rank reduction techniques in combination with Singular Value Decomposition (SVD are also suggested for finding an efficient solution to the Kriging Equations which can cope with near singular systems. Rainfall estimation at ground level from radar rainfall volume scan data is of interest and importance in earth bound applications such as hydrology and agriculture. As an extension of the above, Ordinary Kriging is applied to three-dimensional radar rainfall data to estimate rainfall rate at ground level. Keywords: ground clutter, data infilling, Ordinary Kriging, nearest neighbours, Singular Value Decomposition, border tracing, computation time, ground level rainfall estimation

  2. Asian monsoon variability, cyclicities, and forcing mechanisms

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    is the dominant climatic feature of the Indian Ocean tropics and the adjacent continent. Boreal summer is characterized by high solar radiation that causes intense sensible and latent heating over northern India and Tibet Plateau. This pattern of heating... monsoon rains (Figure 2). By contrast, the winter season of the Asian sector is characterized by low solar radiation, cold temperature, and northeasterly winds, which flow from the cold Asian continent towards the Arabian Sea. These continental winter...

  3. Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall events over the Mumbai Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, G.; Lomazzi, M.; Entekhabi, D.; Pinto, J.; Rudari, R.

    2009-12-01

    Over the Indian Subcontinent, almost 75% of the annual precipitation is expected to fall during the South Asia Monsoon (SAM) season, conventionally defined between June 1 and September 30. While precipitation patterns show a very strong spatial heterogeneity, the maximum annual values, mainly associated with orographic forcing, occur in the Western Coast of the Indian Peninsula. This is a relatively narrow strip (width generally lower than 100 km) bounded to the West by the North Indian Ocean and to the East by the Western Ghats mountain range. The interaction between SAM rainfall events and relatively short and steep rivers makes this area particularly prone to flash floods. As a consequence, great damages are produced both in terms of life and economic losses. This work aims at identifying large-scale SAM meteorological patterns associated with the triggering of extreme rainfall events affecting the Mumbai region (approximately 18-20°N, 72.5-73.5°E), an area of great economic importance for India and a very highly populated one (around 20 million people). To this aim, seventy years of daily rainfall data are analyzed and compared to a database of damage-causing precipitations. Event days are selected with a twin-threshold function related to daily rainfall height and soil moisture content. To detect typical large-scale features, event days are compared to non-event days by analyzing MSLP, SST, and vertical wind profiles. Further, the storm-related processes are analyzed with moisture sources (via backtracing) and moisture flux convergence fields. First results on selected event days show that they are typically characterized by remote moisture sources (from S-W Arabian Sea) and increased lower level westerly winds which cause enhanced moisture flux convergence, leading to precipitable water’s enhancement.

  4. Assessment of Trends and Variability of Rainfall and Temperature for the District of Mandi in Himachal Pradesh, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Wani, John; Sarda, V. K.; Jain, Sanjay. K.

    2017-09-01

    Climate variability, particularly, that of the annual air temperature and precipitation, has received a great deal of attention worldwide. The magnitude of the variability of the factors changes according to the locations. The present study focuses on detecting the trends and variability in the annual temperature and rainfall for the district of Mandi in Himachal Pradesh, India. This study used annual and monsoon time series data for the time period 1981-2010 and modified the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator in analyzing the problem. The results of the analysis indicate that the annual maximum temperature (TMX) and annual minimum temperature (TMN) for the period of 30 years have shown an increasing trend, whereas the monsoon's maximum and minimum temperatures have shown a decreasing trend, although it is statistically not significant. The amount of annual rainfall does not show any significant trend, but the monsoonal rainfall has shown an increasing trend that is also statistically not significant. The resulting Mann-Kendall test statistic (Z) and Sen's slope estimate (Q) of all the parameters studied indicate that changes are occurring in the magnitude and timing of the precipitation and temperature events at the Mandi station.

  5. Regional climatic effects according to different estimations of biogenic volatile organic compounds during the asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyung-Jin; Takata, Kumiko; Tanaka, Katsunori; Yamashima, Ryoji; Matsumoto, Jun; Saito, Kazuyuki; Takemura, Toshihiko; Yasunari, Tetsuzo

    2014-08-01

    A series of 60-year numerical experiments starting from 1851 was conducted using a global climate model coupled with an aerosol-cloud-radiation model to investigate the response of the Asian summer monsoon to variations in the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) flux induced by two different estimations of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. One estimation was obtained from a pre-existing archive and the other was generated by a next-generation model (the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN). The use of MEGAN resulted in an overall increase of the SOA production through a higher rate of gasto-particle conversion of BVOCs. Consequently, the atmospheric loading of organic carbon (OC) increased due to the contribution of SOA to OC aerosol. The increase of atmospheric OC aerosols was prominent in particular in the Indian subcontinent and Indochina Peninsula (IP) during the pre- and early-monsoon periods because the terrestrial biosphere is the major source of BVOC emissions and the atmospheric aerosol concentration diminishes rapidly with the arrival of monsoon rainfall. As the number of atmospheric OC particles increased, the number concentrations of cloud droplets increased, but their size decreased. These changes represent a combination of aerosol-cloud interactions that were favorable to rainfall suppression. However, the modeled precipitation was slightly enhanced in May over the oceans that surround the Indian subcontinent and IP. Further analysis revealed that a compensating updraft in the surrounding oceans was induced by the thermally-driven downdraft in the IP, which was a result of surface cooling associated with direct OC aerosol radiative forcing, and was able to surpass the aerosolcloud interactions. The co-existence of oceanic ascending motion with the maximum convective available potential energy was also found to be crucial for rainfall formation. Although the model produced statistically significant rainfall

  6. Decadal record of monsoon dynamics across the Himalayas using tree ring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Camilla Francesca; Andermann, Christoff; Helle, Gerhard; Comiti, Francesco; Tonon, Giustino; Ventura, Maurizio; Hovius, Niels

    2017-04-01

    The temporal variability of the Indian monsoon penetrating through the Himalayan range and into the southern Tibetan Plateau is poorly understood. Intermittent ingress of wet monsoon air masses into the otherwise arid and deserted landscapes beyond the orographic barrier can have consequences for erosion and flooding, as well as for water availability. Furthermore, the latitudinal rainfall distribution across the mountain range is crucial to better understand the hydrological cycles of rivers originating there. Because instrumental measurements are rare in the High Himalayas and on the Plateau, hydro-climatic sensitive proxies, such as oxygen stable isotope ratios in cellulose of tree-rings, are a valuable source of data covering decades to centuries. Here we present new findings on how often and how far the Indian monsoon penetrated into trans-Himalayan region over the last century. To cope with the lack of direct measurements, we strive to reconstruct a record of intense monsoon years based on tree-ring width chronologies along a latitudinal gradient. Thus, we need to answer whether water availability is the main driver of tree growth in the trans-Himalayan region and how dendro-isotopic data relate to seasonal precipitation inputs and sources. In order to study the monsoon dynamics, we selected four sites along the Kali Gandaki River valley in the central Himalayas (Nepal). This valley connects the very wet, monsoon dominated south Himalayan front with the arid trans-Himalayan region and the southern Tibetan Plateau. Our study area covers the sensitive northern end of the precipitation gradient, located in the upper part of the catchment. Water availability, which drastically varies at each site, was explored by using the climate signal- and isotope-transfer within arboreal systems composed of Juniperus sp., Cupressus sp. and Pinus sp. Results from continuous dendrometer measurements for the entire growing season (Mar-Oct) allowed us to assess the link between

  7. Synoptic Patterns Related to Summer Monsoon Floods on the Mumbai Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomazzi, M.; Entekhabi, D.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.

    2009-09-01

    The Indian Western Coast is a relatively narrow strip (width generally lower than 100 km) bounded to the West by the North Indian Ocean and to the East by the Western Ghats mountain range. During the South Asia Monsoon (SAM) season, conventionally defined between June 1 and September 30, this part of India is one of the most highly affected by extreme rainfall events, with a cumulative rainfall height that may exceed 4000 mm. The combination of quite short and steep rivers and high intensity precipitation events makes this area particularly prone to flash floods. This study focuses on the Mumbai Region, because of its huge number of inhabitants (around 20 millions people) and its great economic importance for India. To provide a tool for damage-causing floods’ forecast in the selected area, extreme rainfall events were analyzed and antecedent synoptic patterns were detected. First results show a pretty clear signal for either SLP and SST on the Arabian Sea, while horizontal winds have different (but still precise) patterns depending on the altitude. Ongoing more detailed analyses are supposed to refine these early upshots.

  8. Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2006-01-01

    Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will

  9. The Indian summer monsoon and the waters around India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shetye, S.R.

    Ninth Kumari L. A. Meera Memorial Lecture The Indian Summer Monsoon and the Waters around India S. R. Shetye National Institute of Oceanography Dana Paula. Goa December 2, 2000 Kumari L. A. Meera Memorial Trust Palghat, Kerala KUMARI L. A. MEERA... Memorial Lecture The Indian Summer Monsoon and the Waters around India Satish R. Shetye The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) represents migration of the rain-bearing Equatorial Trough (ET) to the Indian subcontinent and the surrounding waters. Interaction...

  10. Comment on "'Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.

    2011-01-01

    In their recent paper, Nigam and Bollasina [2010] (hereinafter NB) claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the elevated heat pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim, 2006]. We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from their own out of context interpretation of the hypothesis. NB argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May, are evidence against the EHP hypothesis. Their argument cannot be justified. First, Lau and Kim [2006] (hereinafter LK06) never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are nonlocal in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. As shown in Figure 4 of LK06, while the aerosol anomalies are strongest in April-May, the strongest rainfall response is in June-July, with the enhanced rainfall fed by an induced thermally driven circulation which brings additional moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. Third, the increased rainfall over the Bay of Bengal as shown in Figure 1a of NB and the increased low-level convergence in Figure 1f of NB do not necessarily reflect responses associated with EHP but rather the large ]scale circulation that provides the buildup of the aerosols before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no washout by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols. For the same reason, the spatial distributions of rainfall and aerosol generally are offset with each other, i.e., high aerosol in regions of low rainfall. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the climatological mean of the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), and TRMM rainfall over India in

  11. Temporal evolution of the spatial covariability of rainfall in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciemer, Catrin; Boers, Niklas; Barbosa, Henrique M. J.; Kurths, Jürgen; Rammig, Anja

    2017-10-01

    The climate of South America exhibits pronounced differences between rainy and dry seasons, associated with specific synoptic features such as the establishment of the South Atlantic convergence zone. Here, we analyze the spatiotemporal correlation structure and in particular teleconnections of daily rainfall associated with these features by means of evolving complex networks. A modification of Pearson's correlation coefficient is introduced to handle the intricate statistical properties of daily rainfall. On this basis, spatial correlation networks are constructed, and new appropriate network measures are introduced in order to analyze the temporal evolution of the networks' characteristics. We particularly focus on the identification of coherent areas of similar rainfall patterns and previously unknown teleconnection structures between remote areas. We show that the monsoon onset is characterized by an abrupt transition from erratic to organized regional connectivity that prevails during the monsoon season, while only the onset times themselves exhibit anomalous large-scale organization of teleconnections. Furthermore, we reveal that the two mega-droughts in the Amazon basin were already announced in the previous year by an anomalous behavior of the connectivity structure.

  12. The Chennai extreme rainfall event in 2015: The Bay of Bengal connection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyaj, Alugula; Ashok, Karumuri; Ghosh, Subimal; Devanand, Anjana; Dandu, Govardhan

    2017-06-01

    Southeast India experienced a heavy rainfall during 30 Nov-2 Dec 2015. Particularly, the Chennai city, the fourth major metropolitan city in India with a population of 5 million, experienced extreme flooding and causalities. Using various observed/reanalysed datasets, we find that the concurrent southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) sea surface temperatures (SST) were anomalously warm. Our analysis shows that BoB sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are indeed positively, and significantly, correlated with the northeastern Indian monsoonal rainfall during this season. Our sensitivity experiments carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 25 km resolution suggest that, while the strong concurrent El Niño conditions contributed to about 21.5% of the intensity of the extreme Chennai rainfall through its signals in the local SST mentioned above, the warming trend in BoB SST also contributed equally to the extremity of the event. Further, the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) impacts on the intensity of the synoptic events in the BoB during the northeast monsoon are manifested largely through the local SST in the BoB as compared through its signature in the atmospheric circulations over the BoB.

  13. Glacial fluctuations of the Indian monsoon and their relationship with North Atlantic climate: new data and modelling experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Marzin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Several paleoclimate records such as from Chinese loess, speleothems or upwelling indicators in marine sediments present large variations of the Asian monsoon system during the last glaciation. Here, we present a new record from the northern Andaman Sea (core MD77-176 which shows the variations of the hydrological cycle of the Bay of Bengal. The high-resolution record of surface water δ18O dominantly reflects salinity changes and displays large millennial-scale oscillations over the period 40 000 to 11 000 yr BP. Their timing and sequence suggests that events of high (resp. low salinity in the Bay of Bengal, i.e. weak (resp. strong Indian monsoon, correspond to cold (resp. warm events in the North Atlantic and Arctic, as documented by the Greenland ice core record. We use the IPSL_CM4 Atmosphere-Ocean coupled General Circulation Model to study the processes that could explain the teleconnection between the Indian monsoon and the North Atlantic climate. We first analyse a numerical experiment in which such a rapid event in the North Atlantic is obtained under glacial conditions by increasing the freshwater flux in the North Atlantic, which results in a reduction of the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. This freshwater hosing results in a weakening of the Indian monsoon rainfall and circulation. The changes in the continental runoff and local hydrological cycle are responsible for an increase in salinity in the Bay of Bengal. This therefore compares favourably with the new sea water δ18O record presented here and the hypothesis of synchronous cold North Atlantic and weak Indian monsoon events. Additional sensitivity experiments are produced with the LMDZ atmospheric model to analyse the teleconnection mechanisms between the North Atlantic and the Indian monsoon. The changes over the tropical Atlantic are shown to be essential in triggering perturbations of the subtropical jet over Africa and Eurasia, that in turn

  14. A glimpse of the Quaternary monsoon history from India and adjoining seas

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Saraswat, R.; Nigam, R.; Correge, T.

    in modulating northern hemispheric climate. The glacial terminations are marked by weak monsoon activity. The summer monsoon weakened during the Middle Holocene after the Early Holocene optimum. A change in the monsoon intensity though alters the salinity...

  15. Sea surface temperature variability over North Indian Ocean - A study of two contrasting monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sathyendranath, S.; Viswambharan, N.K.; Rao, L.V.G.

    Using the satellite derived sea surface temperature (SST) data for 1979 (bad monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon), the SST variability for two contrasting monsoon seasons is studied. The study indicates that large negative anomalies off the Somali...

  16. Temporal variation of diatom benthic propagules in a monsoon-influenced tropical estuary

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Patil, J.S.; Anil, A.C.

    the non-monsoon season, Thalassiosira blooms were encountered subsequent to high nitrate inputs. These findings suggest that in such shallow tropical regions, physical processes during monsoon (freshwater discharge) and non-monsoon seasons (currents, waves...

  17. Monsoon and cyclone induced wave climate over the near shore waters off Puduchery, south western Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Glejin, J.; SanilKumar, V.; Nair, T.M.B.

    dominate (63%) the wave climate during the NE monsoon. Wave spectra during the SW monsoon are multi peaked whereas during the post monsoon season single peaked spectra are found. Single peaked spectra observed during SW monsoon of 2011 coincides...

  18. The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lyon, Bradfield [The Earth Institute at Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY (United States); Camargo, Suzana J. [The Earth Institute at Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY (United States); Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY (United States)

    2009-01-15

    An observational study covering the period 1950-2002 examines a seasonal reversal in the ENSO rainfall signal in the north-central Philippines. In boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, above (below) average rainfall typically occurs in this area. Rainfall anomalies of opposite sign develop across the country in the subsequent fall. This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) during both El Nino and La Nina and places these features in the context of the large-scale evolution of ENSO events, including an analysis of changes in tropical cyclone activity affecting the Philippines. The results show that during boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, a relatively narrow, zonally elongated band of enhanced (reduced) low-level westerlies develops across the WNP which serves to increase (decrease) the summer monsoon flow and moisture flux over the north-central Philippines and is associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the WNP monsoon trough via the anomalous relative vorticity. Tropical cyclone activity is shown to be enhanced (reduced) in the study region during boreal summer of El Nino (La Nina) events, which is related to the increase (decrease) of mid-level atmospheric moisture, as diagnosed using a genesis potential index. The subsequent evolution shows development of an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the WNP in El Nino (La Nina) and the well-known tendency for below (above) average rainfall in the fall. Prolonged ENSO events also exhibit seasonal rainfall sign reversals in the Philippines with a similar evolution in atmospheric circulation. (orig.)

  19. The relation of vegetation over the Tibetan Plateau to rainfall in China during the boreal summer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuo, Zhiyan; Zhang, Renhe [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Beijing (China); Zhao, Ping [National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing (China)

    2011-03-15

    The relationship between vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and summer (June-August) rainfall in China is investigated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Earth Resources Observation System and observed rainfall data from surface 616 stations in China for the period 1982-2001. The leading mode of empirical orthogonal functions analysis for summer rainfall variability in China shows a negative anomaly in the area from the Yangtze River valley to the Yellow River valley (YYR) and most of western China, and positive anomalies in southern China and North China. This mode is significantly correlated with summer NDVI around the southern TP. This finding indicates that vegetation around the southern TP has a positive correlation with summer rainfall in southern China and North China, but a negative correlation with summer rainfall in YYR and western China. We investigate the physical process by which vegetation change affects summer rainfall in China. Increased vegetation around the southern TP is associated with a descending motion anomaly on the TP and the neighboring area to the east, resulting in reduced surface heating and a lower Bowen ratio, accompanied by weaker divergence in the upper troposphere and convergence in the lower troposphere on the TP. In turn, these changes result in the weakening of and a westward shift in the southern Asian High in the upper troposphere and thereby the weakening of and an eastward withdrawal in the western Pacific subtropical high. These features result in weak circulation in the East Asian summer monsoon. Consequently, enhanced summer rainfall occurs in southern China and North China, but reduced rainfall in YYR. (orig.)

  20. Madagascar corals reveal a multidecadal signature of rainfall and river runoff since 1708

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Grove

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO. Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV, similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008 to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be

  1. Trends and variability of East African rainfall and its relationship to the Mascarene High pressure system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seregina, Larisa; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Ermert, Volker

    2016-04-01

    In the recent decades, East Africa needs to deal with strong fluctuations in seasonal rainfall including precipitation extremes. In context of climate change, such extremes can become more frequent in the future. However, regional climate projections are uncertain about the future development of seasonal precipitation in the region. Rainfall regimes over East Africa are influenced by multiple factors, including two monsoon systems, several convergence zones and the Rift Valley lakes. In addition, local conditions, like topography, modulate the large-scale rainfall pattern. East African rainfall variability is also influenced by various teleconnections like the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The study of past climate variability in East Africa requires sufficient observational data coverage in the region. As East Africa does not have a dense observational network of meteorological stations, satellite rainfall observations gain on importance in studies on climate variability in the region. The specific aim of the present study is the analysis of historic data from weather stations in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ruanda and Uganda), the use of gridded satellite products, and three-dimensional atmospheric reanalysis (e.g., ERA-Interim) to quantify climate variability in the recent past and to understand its causes. Climate variability and trends, including changes in extreme events, are evaluated using ETCCDI climate change and standardized precipitation indices. These climate indices are determined in order to investigate the variability of rainfall and its trends with the focus on recent decades. For seasonal trend analysis, an independent and non-calendaric rainfall onset criterion is introduced. In the follow-up, statistical and dynamical analyses are conducted to quantify the local impact of Mascarene High as a part of the Subtropical High Pressure Ridge on East African seasonal rainfall. Possible connections to pertinent large

  2. Rainfall erosivity in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klik, Andreas; Haas, Kathrin; Dvorackova, Anna; Fuller, Ian

    2014-05-01

    Rainfall and its kinetic energy expressed by the rainfall erosivity is the main driver of soil erosion processes by water. The Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Factor (R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation is one oft he most widely used parameters describing rainfall erosivity. This factor includes the cumulative effects of the many moderate-sized storms as well as the effects oft he occasional severe ones: R quantifies the effect of raindrop impact and reflects the amopunt and rate of runoff associated with the rain. New Zealand is geologically young and not comparable with any other country in the world. Inordinately high rainfall and strong prevailing winds are New Zealand's dominant climatic features. Annual rainfall up to 15000 mm, steep slopes, small catchments and earthquakes are the perfect basis for a high rate of natural and accelerated erosion. Due to the multifacted landscape of New Zealand its location as island between the Pacific and the Tasmanian Sea there is a high gradient in precipitation between North and South Island as well as between West and East Coast. The objective of this study was to determine the R-factor for the different climatic regions in New Zealand, in order to create a rainfall erosivity map. We used rainfall data (breakpoint data in 10-min intervals) from 34 gauging stations for the calcuation of the rainfall erosivity. 15 stations were located on the North Island and 19 stations on the South Island. From these stations, a total of 397 station years with 12710 rainstorms were analyzed. The kinetic energy for each rainfall event was calculated based on the equation by Brown and Foster (1987), using the breakpoint precipitation data for each storm. On average, a mean annual precipitation of 1357 mm was obtained from the 15 observed stations on the North Island. Rainfall distribution throughout the year is relatively even with 22-24% of annual rainfall occurring in spring , fall and winter and 31% in summer. On the South Island

  3. A road map for improving dry-bias in simulating the South Asian monsoon precipitation by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Bidyut Bikash; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-09-01

    An outstanding problem of climate models is the persistent dry bias in simulating precipitation over the south Asian summer monsoon region. Guided by observations, it is hypothesized that the dry-bias in simulating precipitation by the models is related to underestimation of high pass variance by most models. An analysis of the simulated mean and variance in precipitation by 36 coupled models show that the dry bias in simulating the mean precipitation by the models is indeed proportional to the underestimation of the variance. Models also indicate that the underestimation of the high-pass variance arise due to the underestimation of the intense rainfall events by models. Further, it is found that the higher resolution models simulate increasingly reduced dry bias by simulating high-frequency variance better through better simulation probability of intense rainfall events. The robustness of our findings over different regions and during both boreal summer and winter seasons indicates the universality of the hypothesis.

  4. Spatial and diurnal variations of storm heights in the East Asia summer monsoon: storm height regimes and large-scale diurnal modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myung-Sook; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Hyerim; Im, Jungho; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates the spatial and diurnal variation of storm height in the East Asia summer monsoon region using 13-year Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar data. Precipitating storms are classified as shallow (10 km) depending the height. Four different regimes are identified to characterize the region: the continental (CT) shallow regime over inland China with elevated terrain, the CT deep over the Chinese Plain, the coastal (CS) middle over the East China Sea and South Sea of Korea, and the CS shallow over the south coastal area of Japan. This regime separation reflects well the distinctive regional difference in the rainfall contribution by each storm type. The occurrence frequencies of shallow, middle, and deep storms exhibit pronounced diurnal variation as well, but with significant differences in the amplitude and phase across the regimes. These lead to a diversity in the diurnal variation of surface rainfall such as bimodal morning and late evening peaks in the two CT regimes and the single morning peak in the two CS regimes. Processes involved in the diurnal variation of storms are different across the regimes, indicating difference in the contributing role of surface heating, large-scale diurnal circulation, and diurnal propagations of convective systems. The storm height also affects the rain intensity. This study highlights that the East Asia summer monsoon has distinctive sub-regional variation of the storm height distribution, thereby providing unique differences in the rainfall amount, intensity, and the diurnal variation.

  5. NEXRAD Rainfall Data: Eureka, California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 (WSR-88D) measurements were used to support AMSR-E rainfall validation efforts in Eureka, California,...

  6. Study of Climate Change Impact to Local Rainfall Distribution in Lampung Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tumiar Katarina Manik

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Global warming which leads to climate change has potential affect to Indonesia agriculture activities and production. Analyzing rainfall pattern and distribution is important to investigate the impact of global climate change to local climate. This study using rainfall data from 1976-2010 from both lowland and upland area of Lampung Province. The results show that rainfall tends to decrease since the 1990s which related to the years with El Nino event. Monsoonal pattern- having rain and dry season- still excist in Lampung; however, since most rain fell below the average, it could not meet crops water need. Farmers conclude that dry seasons were longer and seasonal pattern has been changed. Global climate change might affect Lampung rainfall distribution through changes on sea surface temperature which could intensify the El Nino effect. Therefore, watching the El Nino phenomena and how global warming affects it, is important in predicting local climate especially the rainfall distribution in order to prevent significant loss in agriculture productivities.

  7. Genetic Programming for the Downscaling of Extreme Rainfall Events on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Hadi Pour

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A genetic programming (GP-based logistic regression method is proposed in the present study for the downscaling of extreme rainfall indices on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, which is considered one of the zones in Malaysia most vulnerable to climate change. A National Centre for Environmental Prediction reanalysis dataset at 42 grid points surrounding the study area was used to select the predictors. GP models were developed for the downscaling of three extreme rainfall indices: days with larger than or equal to the 90th percentile of rainfall during the north-east monsoon; consecutive wet days; and consecutive dry days in a year. Daily rainfall data for the time periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2000 were used for the calibration and validation of models, respectively. The results are compared with those obtained using the multilayer perceptron neural network (ANN and linear regression-based statistical downscaling model (SDSM. It was found that models derived using GP can predict both annual and seasonal extreme rainfall indices more accurately compared to ANN and SDSM.

  8. Impact of satellite data assimilation on the predictability of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Parekh, Anant

    2017-04-07

    This study reports the improvement in the predictability of circulation and precipitation associated with monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) when the initial state is produced by assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved temperature and water vapour profiles in Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Two separate simulations are carried out for nine years (2003 to 2011) . In the first simulation, forcing is from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, CTRL) and in the second, apart from NCEP forcing, AIRS temperature and moisture profiles are assimilated (ASSIM). Ten active and break cases are identified from each simulation. Three dimensional temperature states of identified active and break cases are perturbed using twin perturbation method and carried out predictability tests. Analysis reveals that the limit of predictability of low level zonal wind is improved by four (three) days during active (break) phase. Similarly the predictability of upper level zonal wind (precipitation) is enhanced by four (two) and two (four) days respectively during active and break phases. This suggests that the initial state using AIRS observations could enhance predictability limit of MISOs in WRF. More realistic baroclinic response and better representation of vertical state of atmosphere associated with monsoon enhance the predictability of circulation and rainfall.

  9. Assessing the level of spatial homogeneity of the agronomic Indian monsoon onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Rory G. J.; Parker, Douglas J.; Willetts, Peter D.

    2016-11-01

    Over monsoon regions, such as the Indian subcontinent, the local onset of persistent rainfall is a crucial event in the annual climate for agricultural planning. Recent work suggested that local onset dates are spatially coherent to a practical level over West Africa; a similar assessment is undertaken here for the Indian subcontinent. Areas of coherent onset, defined as local onset regions or LORs, exist over the studied region. These LORs are significant up to the 95% confidence interval and are primarily clustered around the Arabian Sea (adjacent to and extending over the Western Ghats), the Monsoon Trough (north central India), and the Bay of Bengal. These LORs capture regions where synoptic scale controls of onset may be present and identifiable. In other regions, the absence of LORs is indicative of regions where local and stochastic factors may dominate onset. A potential link between sea surface temperature anomalies and LOR variability is presented. Finally, Kerala, which is often used as a representative onset location, is not contained within an LOR suggesting that variability here may not be representative of wider onset variability.

  10. Evaluation of NCEP TIGGE short-range forecast for Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirkey, Snehlata; Mukhopadhyay, P.

    2017-08-01

    This study focuses on the short-range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (MISOs) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) data from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. The Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), which plays an important role in the socio-economic growth of the country, is highly variable and is mostly governed by the MISOs. In addition to this, deterministic forecasts of ISMR are not very reliable. Hence, a probabilistic approach at daily scale is required. Keeping this in mind, the present analysis is done by using daily forecast data for up to 7-day lead time and compared with observations. The analysis shows that the ensemble forecast well captures the variability as compared to observations even up to 7 days. The spatial characteristics and the northward propagation of MISO are observed thoroughly in the EPS. The evolution of dynamical and thermodynamical parameters such as specific humidity, moist static energy, moisture divergence, and vorticity is also captured well but show deviation from the observation from 96 h lead time onwards. The tropospheric temperature forecast captures the observed gradient but with certain bias in magnitude whereas the wind shear is simulated quite well both in pattern and magnitude. These analyses bring out the biases in TIGGE EPS forecast and also point out the possible moist processes which needs to be improved.

  11. Mesoscale model forecast verification during monsoon 2008

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Mesoscale model forecast verification during monsoon 2008. 419. Ta b le. 1 . S u mma ry o f th e m od els . T254. W. R. F. M. M5. Eta. H o rizon tal resolution. 0 .5. ◦. ×. 0 .5. ◦. Gau ssian grid. 27 k m. A rak aw. a-C g rid. 90/30/10 k m. A rak aw. a-B g rid. 3. 2 k m. A rak aw a. -E grid. V ertical lev els. 64. 38. 23. 38. T o p ograp h.

  12. Real Time Monitoring and Prediction of the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations: An index based on Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherumadanakadan Thelliyil, S.; Ravindran, A. M.; Giannakis, D.; Majda, A.

    2016-12-01

    An improved index for real time monitoring and forecast verification of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) is introduced using the recently developed Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA) algorithm. Previous studies has demonstrated the proficiency of NLSA in capturing low frequency variability and intermittency of a time series. Using NLSA a hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami (LB) eigen functions are extracted from the unfiltered daily GPCP rainfall data over the south Asian monsoon region. Two modes representing the full life cycle of complex northeastward propagating boreal summer MISO are identified from the hierarchy of Laplace-Beltrami eigen functions. These two MISO modes have a number of advantages over the conventionally used Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) MISO modes including higher memory and better predictability, higher fractional variance over the western Pacific, Western Ghats and adjoining Arabian Sea regions and more realistic representation of regional heat sources associated with the MISO. The skill of NLSA based MISO indices in real time prediction of MISO is demonstrated using hindcasts of CFSv2 extended range prediction runs. It is shown that these indices yield a higher prediction skill than the other conventional indices supporting the use of NLSA in real time prediction of MISO. Real time monitoring and prediction of MISO finds its application in agriculture, construction and hydro-electric power sectors and hence an important component of monsoon prediction.

  13. Climate Change in Remote Mountain Regions: A Throughfall-Exclusion Experiment to Simulate Monsoon Failure in the Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norbu Wangdi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Himalayas are predicted to experience more than 3 times the mean global rise in temperature, as well as erratic rainfall patterns and an increased likelihood of total monsoon failures. While many ecosystem manipulation experiments aiming at understanding the effects of altered precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide are conducted globally, such experiments are rare in Asia, particularly in the Himalayas. To fill this gap, we simulated late onset of monsoon precipitation, as well as total monsoon failure, in a multiyear drought stress experiment in Bhutan. Two treatments, 100% throughfall exclusion and ambient control plots, were applied to 725 m2 plots (25 m × 29 m, each with 2 replicates in a hemlock-dominated (Tsuga dumosa and oak-dominated (Quercus lanata and Quercus griffithii ecosystem at 3260 and 2460 m elevations, respectively. Roof application reduced the volumetric soil water content in the upper (0–20 cm soil layer by ∼ 20% in coniferous and ∼ 31% in broadleaved forest; the deeper soil layers were less affected. We demonstrate that large-scale throughfall-exclusion experiments can be successfully conducted even in a remote Bhutan Himalayan setting. The experiences gathered could be utilized for future long-term ecological monitoring studies in the Himalayan region.

  14. The monsoon system: Land–sea breeze or the ITCZ?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sulochana Gadgil

    2018-01-27

    –sea breeze driven by the land–ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis and its implications for the variability of the monsoon are discussed and it is shown that the observations of monsoon ...

  15. Asian monsoons in a late Eocene greenhouse world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Licht, A.; van Cappelle, M.; Abels, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304848018; Ladant, J.-B.; Trabucho-Alexandre, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/311482465; France-Lanord, C.; Donnadieu, Y.; Vandenberghe, J.; Rigaudier, T.; Lécuyer, C.; Terry, D.; Adriaens, R.; Boura, A.; Guo, Z.; Naing Soe, Aung; Quade, J.; Dupont-Nivet, G.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313092559; Jaeger, J.-J.

    2014-01-01

    The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan–Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55–34 Myr ago)

  16. Indian Summer Monsoon influence on the Arabian Peninsula Summer Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Prasad Dasari, Hari; Omar, Knio; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is as an integral component of the atmospheric global circulation. During summer, the mid-latitude zone of baroclinic waves in the Middle East region are pushed northward under the influence of ISM. We investigate the impact of ISM on the atmospheric circulation over the Arabian Peninsula on interannual time scale. We analyze various atmospheric variables derived from ECMWF reanalysis. We apply a composite analysis to study the circulation variability over the Middle East during extreme monsoon years. The extreme (strong and weak) monsoon years are identified based on All India Precipitation Index during 1979-2015. Our analysis reveals that ISM is a fundamental driver of the summer circulation over the Middle East. More specifically, during extreme monsoons: (i) the lower tropospheric winds are enhanced and dominated by persistent northerlies along with intensified subsidence due to adiabatic warming, (ii) A prominent baroclinic structure in circulation anomalies are observed, (iii) a meridional shift of the upper tropospheric jet stream (subtropical jet) is noticeable during weak monsoon years; this shift favors a strong Rossby wave response and has a consequent impact on summer circulations over the Middle East, (iv) the upper tropospheric wind anomalies show a well organized train of Rossby waves during strong monsoon years, and (v) Intensification of thermal signal during strong monsoon over West Asia has been noticed. We will present these findings and further discuss the monsoon dynamics controlling the summer Arabian Peninsula circulation.

  17. Multi-scale forcing and the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. X. Wu

    2009-09-01

    parts of their respective continents, and orography-induced ascent is separated from ascent due to continental-scale forcing. Accordingly, the deserts and monsoon climate over these continents are not as strongly developed as those over the Eurasian Continent. A new mechanism of positive feedback between diabatic heating and vorticity generation, which occurs via meridional transfer of heat and planetary vorticity, is proposed as a means of explaining the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon. Strong low-level longwave radiative cooling over eastern parts of oceans and strong surface sensible heating on western parts of continents generate negative vorticity that is balanced by positive planetary vorticity advection from high latitudes. The equatorward flow generated over eastern parts of oceans produces cold sea-surface temperature and stable stratification, leading in turn to the formation of low stratus clouds and the maintenance of strong in situ longwave radiative cooling. The equatorward flow over western parts of continents carries cold, dry air, thereby enhancing local sensible heating as well as moisture release from the underlying soil. These factors result in a dry desert climate. Over the eastern parts of continents, condensation heating generates positive vorticity in the lower troposphere, which is balanced by negative planetary vorticity advection of the meridional flow from low latitudes. The flow brings warm and moist air, thereby enhancing local convective instability and condensation heating associated with rainfall. These factors produce a wet monsoonal climate. Overall, our results demonstrate that subtropical desert and monsoon coexist as a consequence of multi-scale forcing along the subtropics.

  18. Multi-scale forcing and the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. X. Wu

    2009-09-01

    located over the western parts of their respective continents, and orography-induced ascent is separated from ascent due to continental-scale forcing. Accordingly, the deserts and monsoon climate over these continents are not as strongly developed as those over the Eurasian Continent.

    A new mechanism of positive feedback between diabatic heating and vorticity generation, which occurs via meridional transfer of heat and planetary vorticity, is proposed as a means of explaining the formation of subtropical desert and monsoon. Strong low-level longwave radiative cooling over eastern parts of oceans and strong surface sensible heating on western parts of continents generate negative vorticity that is balanced by positive planetary vorticity advection from high latitudes. The equatorward flow generated over eastern parts of oceans produces cold sea-surface temperature and stable stratification, leading in turn to the formation of low stratus clouds and the maintenance of strong in situ longwave radiative cooling. The equatorward flow over western parts of continents carries cold, dry air, thereby enhancing local sensible heating as well as moisture release from the underlying soil. These factors result in a dry desert climate. Over the eastern parts of continents, condensation heating generates positive vorticity in the lower troposphere, which is balanced by negative planetary vorticity advection of the meridional flow from low latitudes. The flow brings warm and moist air, thereby enhancing local convective instability and condensation heating associated with rainfall. These factors produce a wet monsoonal climate. Overall, our results demonstrate that subtropical desert and monsoon coexist as a consequence of multi-scale forcing along the subtropics.

  19. Inter-annual Controls on Oxygen Isotopes of Precipitaion in the Asian Monsoon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H.; Johnson, K. R.; Griffiths, M. L.; Yoshimura, K.

    2015-12-01

    The complex nature of speleothem δ18O from the Asian monsoon region is a result of the varying influences of monsoon strength, moisture source region, transport history, local cave hydrology and other effects on cave dripwater δ18O. In order to provide a more robust interpretation of speleothem δ18O data from the broader Asian monsoon region, we utilize existing simulations from the isotope-enabled GCM, IsoGSM (Yoshimura el al. 2008), to investigate the climatic controls on precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) at four cave locations: Dongge Cave, China (25°17' N, 108°5' E); Tham Mai Cave, Laos (20.75 N, 102.65 E); Mawmluh Cave, India (25°15'44''N, 91°52'54''E); and Qunf Cave, Oman (17°10' N, 54°18' E). Our composite speleothem records from Laos—a key site at the interface between the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems—will be used as a case study for interpreting speleothem δ18O in the South-East Asian Monsoon (SEAM) region. Our results show that δ18Op extracted from the grid point closest to four cave sites from IsoGSM shows very low correlation between δ18Op and local precipitation. δ18Op at Dongge cave reveals a negative correlation (0.4 to 0.5) with precipitation in the Bay of Bengal, suggesting that δ18Op from the East Asian monsoon area reflects upstream distillation over the Indian monsoon region. δ18Op in Laos exhibits a negative correlation with precipitation over the broad Indo-Pacific warm pool region, indicating increased convection over this area leads to more negative δ18Op over SE Asia. Given the low correlation between local precipitation and δ18Op at all four cave sites, we interpret the δ18Op at these locales as reflective of regional changes in hydroclimate, rather than local precipitation amount. In addition, δ18Op from IsoGSM at all fours sites, especially Qunf, Mawnluh, and Tham Mai cave, show a positive correlation with Pacific SSTs over the NINO3.4 region and in the western and northern Indian Ocean, suggesting that the

  20. Dynamics of the perfect storms: La Niña and Australia's extreme rainfall and floods of 1974 and 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelan, Jennifer; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.

    2017-06-01

    An ensemble of general circulation model simulations and dynamical mode analyses of important weather systems contributing to Australia's severe rainfall and flooding events, in January 1974 and January 2011, are described. Dispersion relation techniques have also been used to extract the leading weather systems in observations and general circulation model (GCM) simulations, including Kelvin waves and intraseasonal oscillations. We find that the severe rainfall and flooding events over northern Australia in January 1974 and January 2011 coincided with significant intraseasonal oscillation and Kelvin wave activity that constructively interfered on the critical days of very high rainfall. The CSIRO Mk3L spectral GCM has been used to simulate both events. Particular simulations from 1870 to 2011, forced by observed SSTs and increasing CO2, agree well with observations in both the timing and patterns of these disturbances. The growth and structures of the leading dynamical normal modes have also been determined within a two-level primitive equation instability model. Our results show explosively growing intraseasonal oscillations and atmospheric Kelvin waves convectively coupled in the Australian monsoonal region. Monsoon disturbances, associated blocking over the Tasman Sea, and tropical-extratropical interactions also significantly contributed to the heavy rainfall. Model simulations and analyses of the dynamical modes are consistent with the synoptic situation seen in observational data for both severe precipitation events, and provide a more complete description of the reasons for the extreme impact of both events.

  1. The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Sandra; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

    2017-09-01

    Multi-scale interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north-south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north-south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.

  2. Comparison of East Asian winter monsoon indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Hui

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Four East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM indices are compared in this paper. In the research periods, all the indices show similar interannual and decadal-interdecadal variations, with predominant periods centering in 3–4 years, 6.5 years and 9–15 years, respectively. Besides, all the indices show remarkable weakening trends since the 1980s. The correlation coefficient of each two indices is positive with a significance level of 99%. Both the correlation analyses and the composites indicate that in stronger EAWM years, the Siberian high and the higher-level subtropical westerly jet are stronger, and the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are deeper. This circulation pattern is favorable for much stronger northwesterly wind and lower air temperature in the subtropical regions of East Asia, while it is on the opposite in weaker EAWM years. Besides, EAWM can also exert a remarkable leading effect on the summer monsoon. After stronger (weaker EAWM, less (more summer precipitation is seen over the regions from the Yangtze River valley of China to southern Japan, while more (less from South China Sea to the tropical western Pacific.

  3. Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

  4. Rainfall prediction of Cimanuk watershed regions with canonical correlation analysis (CCA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustiana, Shailla; Nurani Ruchjana, Budi; Setiawan Abdullah, Atje; Hermawan, Eddy; Berliana Sipayung, Sinta; Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, I.; Krismianto

    2017-10-01

    Rainfall prediction in Indonesia is very influential on various development sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, water resources, industry, and other sectors. The inaccurate predictions can lead to negative effects. Cimanuk watershed is one of the main pillar of water resources in West Java. This watersheds divided into three parts, which is a headwater of Cimanuk sub-watershed, Middle of Cimanuk sub-watershed and downstream of Cimanuk sub- watershed. The flow of this watershed will flow through the Jatigede reservoir and will supply water to the north-coast area in the next few years. So, the reliable model of rainfall prediction is very needed in this watershed. Rainfall prediction conducted with Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) method using Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) software. The prediction is every 3months on 2016 (after January) based on Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data over West Java. Predictors used in CPT were the monthly data index of Nino3.4, Dipole Mode (DMI), and Monsoon Index (AUSMI-ISMI-WNPMI-WYMI) with initial condition January. The initial condition is chosen by the last data update. While, the predictant were monthly rainfall data CHIRPS region of West Java. The results of prediction rainfall showed by skill map from Pearson Correlation. High correlation of skill map are on MAM (Mar-Apr-May), AMJ (Apr-May-Jun), and JJA (Jun-Jul-Aug) which means the model is reliable to forecast rainfall distribution over Cimanuk watersheds region (over West Java) on those seasons. CCA score over those season prediction mostly over 0.7. The accuracy of the model CPT also indicated by the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of the results of Pearson correlation 3 representative point of sub-watershed (Sumedang, Majalengka, and Cirebon), were mostly located in the top line of non-skill, and evidenced by the same of rainfall patterns between observation and forecast. So, the model of CPT with CCA method

  5. Role of Atmospheric Circulation and Westerly Jet Changes in the mid-Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, W.; Chiang, J. C. H.

    2014-12-01

    The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) varies on inter-decadal to interglacial-glacial timescales. The EASM is stronger in the mid-Holocene than today, and these changes can be readily explained by orbitally-driven insolation increase during the boreal summer. However, a detailed understanding of the altered seasonal evolution of the EASM during this time is still lacking. In particular, previous work has suggested a close link between seasonal migration of the EASM and that of the mid-latitude westerlies impinging on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we explore, this problem in PMIP3 climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene, focusing on the role of atmospheric circulation and in particular how the westerly jet modulates the East Asia summer climate on paleoclimate timescales. Analysis of the model simulations suggests that, compared to the preindustrial simulations, the transition from Mei-Yu to deep summer rainfall occurs earlier in the mid-Holocene. This is accompanied by an earlier weakening and northward shift of westerly jet away from the Tibetan Plateau. The variation in the strength and the 3-D structure of the westerly jet in the mid-Holocene is summarized. We find that changes to the monsoonal rainfall, westerly jet and meridional circulation covary on paleoclimate timescales. Meridional wind changes in particular are tied to an altered stationary wave pattern, resembling today's the so-called 'Silk Road' teleconnection pattern, riding along the westerly jet. Diagnostic analysis also reveals changes in moist static energy and eddy energy fluxes associated with the earlier seasonal transition of the EASM. Our analyses suggest that the westerly jet is critical to the altered dynamics of the East Asian summer monsoon during the mid-Holocene.

  6. Understanding Hydroclimatic Extremes in Changing Monsoon Climates with Daily Bias Correction of CMIP5 Regional Climate Models over South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, M. A.; Islam, A. S.; Akanda, A. S. S.

    2015-12-01

    The assessment of hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes in changing climates has gathered special attention in the latest IPCC 5thAssessment Report (AR5). In monsoon regions such as South Asia, hydrologic modeling (i.e., stream flow assessment, water budget analysis, etc.) needs to incorporate such extremes to simulate retrospective and future scenarios. For information of past and future climate, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are preferred over global models due to their higher resolution and dynamic downscaling capabilities. Although the models perform well in representing the mean climate, they still possess significant biases, especially in daily hydrometeorological extremes over monsoon regions. Therefore, modification and correction of RCM results while preserving the extremes are crucial for hydrologic modeling in changing monsoon climates such as in South Asia. In this context, we generate a gridded observed product that preserve the hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin region in South Asia. A recent approach to bias correction is also proposed for correcting regional climate data in currently available future projections. The 30 year dataset (1971-2010) is used for comparing hydroclimatic and hydrometeorological extremes with APHRODITE and ERA-Interim Reanalysis products. The assessment has revealed that the new gridded data set provides much accurate maximum rainfall intensity, number of dry days, number of wet days and number of rainy days with greater than 500mm rainfall than any other available gridded data products. Using the gridded data sets, bias correctionis applied on CMIP5 multi-model historical datasets to evaluate RCM data performance over the region, which show great improvement in regional climate data for future hydrologic modeling scenarios and analyzing impacts of climate extremes.

  7. Rainfall monitoring based on microwave links from cellular telecommunication networks: First results from a West African test bed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doumounia, Ali; Gosset, Marielle; Cazenave, Frederic; Kacou, Modeste; Zougmore, François

    2014-08-01

    Rainfall monitoring based on commercial terrestrial microwave links is tested for the first time in Burkina Faso, in Sahelian West Africa. In collaboration with one national cellular phone operator, Telecel Faso, the attenuation on a 29 km long microwave link operating at 7 GHz was monitored at 1 s time rate for the monsoon season 2012. The time series of attenuation is transformed into rain rates and compared with rain gauge data. The method is successful in quantifying rainfall: 95% of the rainy days are detected. The correlation with the daily rain gauge series is 0.8, and the season bias is 6%. The correlation at the 5 min time step within each event is also high. These results demonstrate the potential interest of exploiting national and regional wireless telecommunication networks for monitoring rainfall in Africa, where operational rain gauge networks are degrading and the hydrometeorological risk increasing.

  8. Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.

    2003-04-01

    Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

  9. Detecting the influence of ocean process on the moisture supply for India summer monsoon from Satellite Sea Surface Salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, W.; Yueh, S. H.; Liu, W. T.; Fore, A.; Hayashi, A.

    2016-02-01

    A strong contrast in the onset of Indian summer monsoon was observed by independent satellites: average rain rate over India subcontinent (IS) in June was more than doubled in 2013 than 2012 (TRMM); also observed are larger area of wet soil (Aquarius) and high water storage (GRACE). The difference in IS rainfall was contributed to the moisture inputs through west coast of India, estimated from ocean wind (OSCAT2) and water vapor (TMI). This is an interesting testbed for studying the role of ocean on terrestrial water cycle, in particular the Indian monsoon, which has tremendous social-economical impact. What is the source of extra moisture in 2013 or deficit in 2012 for the monsoon onset? Is it possible to quantify the contribution of ocean process that maybe responsible for redistributing the freshwater in favor of the summer monsoon moisture supply? This study aims to identify the influence of ocean processes on the freshwater exchange between air-sea interfaces, using Aquarius sea surface salinity (SSS). We found two areas in Indian Ocean with high correlation between IS rain rate and Aquarius SSS: one area is in the Arabian Sea adjacent to IS, another area is a horizontal patch from 60°E to 100°E centered around 10°S. On the other hand, E-P (OAflux, TRMM) shows no similar correlation patterns with IS rain. Based on the governing equation of the salt budget in the upper ocean, we define the freshwater flux, F, from the oceanic branch of the water cycle, including contributions from salinity tendency, advection, and subsurface process. The tendency and advection terms are estimated using Aquarius SSS and OSCAR ocean current. We will present results of analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of F and evidence of and hypothesis on how the oceanic processes may enhance the moisture supply for summer Indian monsoon onset in 2013 comparing with 2012. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) has been producing the global soil moisture (SM) every 2-3 days

  10. A ˜50 ka record of monsoonal variability in the Darjeeling foothill region, eastern Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Ruby; Bera, Subir; Sarkar, Anindya; Paruya, Dipak Kumar; Yao, Yi-Feng; Li, Cheng-Sen

    2015-04-01

    Pollen, phytoliths and δ 13C signatures of soil organic matter from two fluvial sedimentary sequences of the Darjeeling foothill region, eastern Himalayas are used to portray palaeoclimatic oscillations and their impact on regional plant communities over the last ˜50 ka. Quantitative palaeoclimate estimation using coexistence approach on pollen data and other proxies indicate significant oscillations in precipitation during the late part of MIS 3 (46.4-25.9 ka), early and middle part of MIS 2 (25.9-15.6 ka), and 5.4 to 3.5 ka. Middle to late MIS 3 (ca 46.4-31 ka.) was characterized by a comparatively low monsoonal activity and slightly higher temperature than that during ca 31 ka onwards. Simultaneous expansion of deciduous trees and chloridoid grasses also imply a drier and warmer phase. Between 31 and 22.3 ka (late MIS 3 to mid-MIS 2), higher precipitation and a slightly cooler temperature led to an increase in evergreen elements over deciduous taxa and wet-loving panicoid grasses over dry-loving chloridoid grasses than earlier. After ca 22.3 ka, shrinking of forest cover, expansion of C4 chloridoid grasses, Asteraceae and Cheno-ams in the vegetation with lowering of temperature and precipitation characterized the onset of the LGM which continued till 18.3 ka. End of the LGM is manifested by a restoration in the forest cover and in the temperature and precipitation regime. Later, during 5.4 to 4.3 ka, a strong monsoonal activity supported a dense moist evergreen forest cover that subsequently declined during 4.3 to 3.5 ka. A further increase in deciduous elements and non-arboreals might be a consequence of reduced precipitation and higher temperature during this phase. A comparison between monsoonal rainfall, MAT and palaeoatmospheric CO2 with floral dynamics since last ˜50 ka indicates that these fluctuations in plant succession were mainly driven by monsoonal variations.

  11. Seismological evidence for monsoon induced micro to moderate earthquake sequence beneath the 2011 Talala, Saurashtra earthquake, Gujarat, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, A. P.; Mishra, O. P.

    2015-10-01

    In order to understand the processes involved in the genesis of monsoon induced micro to moderate earthquakes after heavy rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon period beneath the 2011 Talala, Saurashtra earthquake (Mw 5.1) source zone, we assimilated 3-D microstructures of the sub-surface rock materials using a data set recorded by the Seismic Network of Gujarat (SeisNetG), India. Crack attributes in terms of crack density (ε), the saturation rate (ξ) and porosity parameter (ψ) were determined from the estimated 3-D sub-surface velocities (Vp, Vs) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures of the area at varying depths. We distinctly imaged high-ε, high-ξ and low-ψ anomalies at shallow depths, extending up to 9-15 km. We infer that the existence of sub-surface fractured rock matrix connected to the surface from the source zone may have contributed to the changes in differential strain deep down to the crust due to the infiltration of rainwater, which in turn induced micro to moderate earthquake sequence beneath Talala source zone. Infiltration of rainwater during the Indian summer monsoon might have hastened the failure of the rock by perturbing the crustal volume strain of the causative source rock matrix associated with the changes in the seismic moment release beneath the surface. Analyses of crack attributes suggest that the fractured volume of the rock matrix with high porosity and lowered seismic strength beneath the source zone might have considerable influence on the style of fault displacements due to seismo-hydraulic fluid flows. Localized zone of micro-cracks diagnosed within the causative rock matrix connected to the water table and their association with shallow crustal faults might have acted as a conduit for infiltrating the precipitation down to the shallow crustal layers following the fault suction mechanism of pore pressure diffusion, triggering the monsoon induced earthquake sequence beneath the source zone.

  12. Fluxes of dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen to the northern Indian Ocean from the Indian monsoonal rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, M. S.; Prasad, V. R.; Sarma, V. V. S. S.; Reddy, N. P. C.; Hemalatha, K. P. J.; Rao, Y. V.

    2015-10-01

    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON) were measured in 27 major and medium monsoonal estuaries along the Indian coast during southwest monsoon in order to understand the spatial variability in their concentrations and fluxes to the northern Indian Ocean. A strong spatial variability (~20-fold) in DOC and DON was observed in the Indian monsoonal estuaries due to variable characteristics of the catchment area and volume of discharge. It is estimated that the Indian monsoonal estuaries transport ~2.37 ± 0.47 Tg (1 Tg = 1012 g) of DOC and ~0.41 ± 0.08 Tg of DON during wet period to the northern Indian Ocean. The Bay of Bengal receives 3 times higher DOC and DON (1.82 and 0.30 Tg, respectively) than the Arabian Sea (0.55 and 0.11 Tg). Catchment area normalized fluxes of DOC and DON were found to be higher in the estuaries located in the southwestern than the estuaries from other regions of India. It was attributed to relatively higher soil organic carbon, biomass carbon, and heavy rainfall in catchment areas of the rivers from the former region. It has been noticed that neither catchment area nor discharge volume of the river controls the fluxes of DOC and DON to the northern Indian Ocean. Since the total load of DOC and DON is strongly linked to the volume of discharge, alterations in the freshwater discharge due to natural or anthropogenic activities may have significant influence on organic matter fluxes to the Indian coastal waters and its impact on microbial food web dynamics needs further evaluation.

  13. Changing contribution rate of heavy rainfall to the rainy season precipitation in Northeast China and its possible causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yi-He; Chen, Hai-Shan; Teng, Fang-Da; Wang, Xiao-Juan; Wang, Ji; Zhao, Chun-Yu

    2017-11-01

    Based on the daily precipitation data from 208 meteorological stations in Northeast China, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly mean wind, sea level pressure data and NOAA reconstructed monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1961 to 2013, the contribution rate of heavy rainfall to the total rainfall (hereafter referred to as "heavy rainfall contribution rate" or HRCR) during the rainy season in Northeast China was investigated. The changing characteristics of HRCR in the context of global warming are analyzed. The relationship between the HRCR and the contemporaneous atmospheric general circulation and early SST anomaly was analyzed to understand the possible physical mechanism responsible for the changing HRCR before and after the warming. Results show that during the whole study period (1961-2013), no evident trend in the HRCR has been detected. However, during cold period (1961-1979), the HRCR showed a significantly declining trend, while during warm period (1981-2013), the HRCR does not exhibit any trend. During cold period, the anomalous North Pacific summer monsoon and March North Atlantic tripole SSTA are the main factors affecting the HRCR, while the West Pacific summer monsoon, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and March North Pacific dipole SSTA are responsible for the HRCR in the warm period. In the cold period, due to the air-sea interaction, March Atlantic tripole SSTA can influence the North Pacific summer monsoon in the late July-August, in turn affecting the HRCR. In the warm period, March North Pacific dipole SSTA tends to cause anomalies in the West Pacific summer monsoon and the position of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet axis in the July-August through air-sea interaction, thereby affecting the HRCR. During 1961-1979, the weakening of the North Pacific summer monsoon might have been the primary cause of the significant decline in the trend of the HRCR in the cold period. In 1981-2013, the absence of significant trends of the

  14. Climatology and Spatio-Temporal Variability of Wintertime Total and Extreme Rainfall in Thailand during 1970-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atsamon Limsakul

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at examining wintertime (December-January-February; DJF climatology and spatio-temporal variability of Thailand’s total and extreme rainfall during 1970-2012. Analysis showed that the area along the Gulf of Thailand’s eastern coast not only received much amount of rainfall but also underwent great extremes and variances during the northeast monsoon (NEM winters. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis similarly revealed that the leading mode of each DJF total or extreme rainfall index was marked by maximum loadings concentrated at the stations located at the exposed area of the NEM flow. Correlation analysis indicated that the leading EOF mode of DJF total and extreme indices in Thailand tended to be higher (lower than normal during strong (weak East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM. On longer timescales, the recent decadal change observed in the leading EOF mode of all rainfall indices has been coincident with re-amplification of the EAWM taken place since the early/mid 2000. The leading EOF mode of DJF total and extreme rainfall indices in Thailand also exhibited strong correlations with the tropical-subtropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. It was characterized as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO/El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO-related boomerang-shaped spatial patterns, resembling the typical mature phases of the La Niña event and the PDO cool epoch. Based on our analysis, it is reasonable to believe that the anomalies of the NEM and other key EAWM-related circulations are likely to be the possible causes of DJF total and extreme rainfall variations in Thailand. In addition, the ENSO and PDO as the primary global atmospheric external forcing are likely to exert their influence on wintertime Thailand’s climate via modulating the EAWM/NEM-related circulations anomalies.

  15. A preliminary assessment of GPM-based multi-satellite precipitation estimates over a monsoon dominated region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash, Satya; Mitra, Ashis K.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Liu, Zhong; Norouzi, Hamidreza; Pai, D. S.

    2018-01-01

    Following the launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, two advanced high resolution multi-satellite precipitation products namely, Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) version 6 are released. A critical evaluation of these newly released precipitation data sets is very important for both the end users and data developers. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of IMERG research product and GSMaP estimates over India at a daily scale for the southwest monsoon season (June to September 2014). The GPM-based precipitation products are inter-compared with widely used TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and gauge-based observations over India. Results show that the IMERG estimates represent the mean monsoon rainfall and its variability more realistically than the gauge-adjusted TMPA and GSMaP data. However, GSMaP has relatively smaller root-mean-square error than IMERG and TMPA, especially over the low mean rainfall regimes and along the west coast of India. An entropy-based approach is employed to evaluate the distributions of the selected precipitation products. The results indicate that the distribution of precipitation in IMERG and GSMaP has been improved markedly, especially for low precipitation rates. IMERG shows a clear improvement in missed and false precipitation bias over India. However, all the three satellite-based rainfall estimates show exceptionally smaller correlation coefficient, larger RMSE, larger negative total bias and hit bias over the northeast India where precipitation is dominated by orographic effects. Similarly, the three satellite-based estimates show larger false precipitation over the southeast peninsular India which is a rain-shadow region. The categorical verification confirms that these satellite-based rainfall estimates have difficulties in detection of rain over the southeast peninsula and northeast India. These

  16. Is there a clear relationship between the Tropical Easterly Jet and Sahel rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemburg, Alexander; Bader, Jürgen; Claussen, Martin

    2017-04-01

    The West African Monsoon (WAM) is of great importance for many regions in sub-Saharan West Africa. The WAM is characterized by a pronounced seasonal wind shift initiated by thermodynamic contrasts between the land and ocean and is associated with precipitation changes. One feature of the WAM system is the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), which is a summer-time upper-tropospheric (100-200hPa) easterly wind between 5° and 20°N. It originates in the South Asian Monsoon system over Bay of Bengal, extends westwards to Africa and decays over the tropical Atlantic. Previous studies found a positive correlation between Sahel rainfall and the strength of the West-African TEJ in the seasonal mean. It was suggested that a strong TEJ can enhance rainfall by increased upper-level divergence. However, it is also possible that a TEJ anomaly is a consequence of increased rainfall or that both are governed by an external quantity. A detailed study of possible physical mechanisms is still missing. In this study, we want to review the relationship between the TEJ and Sahel rainfall by a more in-depth statistical analysis. In contrast to previous studies, we include also high temporal resolution observations and reanalysis data which is necessary to better understand whether the jet is mainly forcing the rainfall or vice versa. Another focus of our analysis is whether a second independent/regional jet is developing over west Africa indicated by a second local maximum in the TEJ? Our results show substantial correlations between Sahel rainfall and TEJ strength on decadal time scales. On shorter time scales, the correlations become weaker and the relationship between the TEJ and Sahel rainfall is less clear. On intraseasonal time scales, it seems more that convection anomalies are leading changes in the TEJ by one or two days. The West African and the South Asian parts of the TEJ appear to be mainly independent on intraseasonal time scales. Pronounced wet years in the Sahel often show a

  17. How predictable is the anomaly pattern of the Indian summer rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Juan; Wang, Bin

    2016-05-01

    Century-long efforts have been devoted to seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Most studies of seasonal forecast so far have focused on predicting the total amount of summer rainfall averaged over the entire India (i.e., all Indian rainfall index-AIRI). However, it is practically more useful to forecast anomalous seasonal rainfall distribution (anomaly pattern) across India. The unknown science question is to what extent the anomalous rainfall pattern is predictable. This study attempted to address this question. Assessment of the 46-year (1960-2005) hindcast made by the five state-of-the-art ENSEMBLE coupled dynamic models' multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction reveals that the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for prediction of AIRI is 0.43, while the area averaged TCC skill for prediction of anomalous rainfall pattern is only 0.16. The present study aims to estimate the predictability of ISMR on regional scales by using Predictable Mode Analysis method and to develop a set of physics-based empirical (P-E) models for prediction of ISMR anomaly pattern. We show that the first three observed empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns of the ISMR have their distinct dynamical origins rooted in an eastern Pacific-type La Nina, a central Pacific-type La Nina, and a cooling center near dateline, respectively. These equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, while located in different longitudes, can all set up a specific teleconnection pattern that affects Indian monsoon and results in different rainfall EOF patterns. Furthermore, the dynamical models' skill for predicting ISMR distribution primarily comes primarily from these three modes. Therefore, these modes can be regarded as potentially predictable modes. If these modes are perfectly predicted, about 51 % of the total observed variability is potentially predictable. Based on understanding the lead-lag relationships between the lower boundary anomalies and the

  18. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  19. Rainfall intensity-duration equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froehlich, David C.

    1988-01-01

    A method for rapidly developing a rainfall intensity-duration equation for durations less than one hour and recurrence intervals between 2 and 100 years for any location in the conterminous United States is presented. Optimal parameters of a general rainfall-intensity duration equation are determined using precipitation depths for durations of 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes obtained from commonly available isopluvial maps. A single set of parameters applies to the entire western U.S. For the central and eastern U.S, a graphical means of determining the parameters is provided.

  20. Rainfall intensity - rainfall kinetic energy relationships: a critical literature appraisal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; Bruijnzeel, L.A.; Rosewell, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Knowledge of the relationship between rainfall intensity and kinetic energy and its variations in time and space is important for erosion prediction. However, between studies considerable variations exist in the reported shape and coefficients of this relationship. Some differences can be explained

  1. Changes of rainfall extremes around the haor basin areas of Bangladesh using multi-member ensemble RCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowreen, Sara; Murshed, Sonia Binte; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Bhaskaran, B.; Hasan, Mohammad Alfi

    2015-01-01

    Haors are large, round-shaped floodplain depressions located in the North-Eastern region of Bangladesh. Extreme events such as heavy rainfall routinely affect the haor basin with flash floods. These haors are predicted to experience severe stress because of changes in rainfall and temperature patterns. The biotic community of the wetlands may not have enough time to adjust itself in such varying temperature and rainfall extremes. This paper evaluates various aspects of the future projections of rainfall and temperature extremes, including magnitudes and frequencies thereof. The impacts of extreme events are examined using Hadley Centre's high-resolution regional climate model known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies). Daily temperature and rainfall simulations of the 17-member ensembles are generated through Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3). These simulations are used in Rclimdex—a software specially designed for this study. A total of 12 core climate indices are computed, analyzed, and statistically examined (Mann-Whitney U test) over the space of three time slices—(1) short (2020s, i.e., 2011-2040), (2) medium (2050s, i.e., 2041-2070), and (3) long (2080s, i.e., 2071-2098). Here, the 1980s (1971-2000) are considered as the baseline period. The study has found that the highest significant variability in both rainfalls and temperatures was during the pre-monsoon season when flash floods normally occur. Also, rainy days are projected to be less frequent albeit more intense where the deeply flooded haors are located. Though the annual total rainfall does not show any difference in spatial distribution (except for in magnitude), the seasonal patterns of most extreme events show that the probable affected areas have shifted from North-east to further North. In addition, a significant increase in both RX1 (1-day maximum rainfall) and RX5 (5-day maximum rainfall) are projected during the 2080's pre-monsoon season near Sunamganj. This

  2. Spatio-Temporal Estimation of Integrated Water Vapour Over the Malaysian Peninsula during Monsoon Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihin, S.; Musa, T. A.; Radzi, Z. Mohd

    2017-10-01

    This paper provides the precise information on spatial-temporal distribution of water vapour that was retrieved from Zenith Path Delay (ZPD) which was estimated by Global Positioning System (GPS) processing over the Malaysian Peninsular. A time series analysis of these ZPD and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV) values was done to capture the characteristic on their seasonal variation during monsoon seasons. This study was found that the pattern and distribution of atmospheric water vapour over Malaysian Peninsular in whole four years periods were influenced by two inter-monsoon and two monsoon seasons which are First Inter-monsoon, Second Inter-monsoon, Southwest monsoon and Northeast monsoon.

  3. Has the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon improved since the late 1970s?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Yi; Fan, Ke; Tian, Baoqiang

    2016-12-01

    Based on the evaluation of state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) from the ENSEMBLES (Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts) and DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction) projects, it is found that the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) has improved since the late 1970s. These CGCMs show better skills in prediction of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation within the SCSSM domain during 1979-2005 than that during 1960-1978. Possible reasons for this improvement are investigated. First, the relationship between the SSTs over the tropical Pacific, North Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and SCSSM has intensified since the late 1970s. Meanwhile, the SCSSM-related SSTs, with their larger amplitude of interannual variability, have been better predicted. Moreover, the larger amplitude of the interannual variability of the SCSSM and improved initializations for CGCMs after the late 1970s contribute to the better prediction of the SCSSM. In addition, considering that the CGCMs have certain limitations in SCSSM rainfall prediction, we applied the year-to-year increment approach to these CGCMs from the DEMETER and ENSEMBLES projects to improve the prediction of SCSSM rainfall before and after the late 1970s.

  4. Applications of Hybrid Algorithm (Successive Over Relaxation and Inverse Distance Weighting) for Interpolating Rainfall Data Obtained from a Dense Network of Meteorological Stations in Metro Manila, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, J. G.; Lagrosas, N.; Ampil, L. J. Y.; Lorenzo, G. R. H.; Simpas, J.

    2016-12-01

    A hybrid piecewise rainfall value interpolation algorithm was formulated using the commonly known Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) and Gauss-Seidel variant Successive Over Relaxation (SOR) to interpolate rainfall values over Metro Manila, Philippines. Due to the fact that the SOR requires boundary values for its algorithm to work, the IDW method has been used to estimate rainfall values at the boundary. Iterations using SOR were then done on the defined boundaries to obtain the desired results corresponding to the lowest RMSE value. The hybrid method was applied to rainfall datasets obtained from a dense network of 30 stations in Metro Manila which has been collecting meteorological data every 5 minutes since 2012. Implementing the Davis Vantage Pro 2 Plus weather monitoring system, each station sends data to a central server which could be accessed through the website metroweather.com.ph. The stations are spread over approximately 625 sq km of area such that each station is approximately within 25 sq km from each other. The locations of the stations determined by the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) are in critical sections of Metro Manila such as watersheds and flood-prone areas. Three cases have been investigated in this study, one for each type of rainfall present in Metro Manila: monsoon-induced (8/20/13), typhoon (6/29/13), and thunderstorm (7/3/15 & 7/4/15). The area where the rainfall stations are located is divided such that large measured rainfall values are used as part of the boundaries for the SOR. Measured station values found inside the area where SOR is implemented are compared with results from interpolated values. Root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation trends between measured and interpolated results are quantified. Results from typhoon, thunderstorm and monsoon cases show RMSE values ranged from 0.25 to 2.46 mm for typhoons, 1.55 to 10.69 mm for monsoon-induced rain and 0.01 to 6.27 mm for thunderstorms. R2 values, on the other

  5. The monsoonal heat budget of the hydrosphere-atmosphere system in the Indian Ocean sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastenrath, Stefan; Greischar, Lawrence

    1993-01-01

    -August core of the season this latent heat flux becomes as large as the southward cross-equatorial heat transport in the ocean (13 × 1014 W). Associated with the summer monsoon airflow, latent heat import takes place in the northern portion of the basin (-2 × 1014 W) and southern Asia (-6 × 1014 W). In context, hydrosphere and atmosphere cooperate in the energetics of the Indian summer monsoon. The water body to the north of the equator cools (despite the summer season) and exports heat to the southern Indian Ocean, where this energy helps sustain the large evaporation associated with the strong winds, which further carry the moisture northward to supply the abundant monsoon rainfall and latent heat release that fuels the atmospheric portion of the monsoon machine. It is during boreal winter that the northern Indian Ocean water body replenishes its heat content, in preparation for the next summer monsoon.

  6. Susceptibility mapping and estimation of rainfall threshold using space based input for assessment of landslide hazard in Guwahati city in North East India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhusan, K.; Kundu, S. S.; Goswami, K.; Sudhakar, S.

    2014-11-01

    Slopes are the most common landforms in North Eastern Region (NER) of India and because of its relatively immature topography, active tectonics, and intense rainfall activities; the region is susceptible to landslide incidences. The scenario is further aggravated due to unscientific human activities leading to destabilization of slopes. Guwahati, the capital city of Assam also experiences similar hazardous situation especially during monsoon season thus demanding a systematic study towards landslide risk reduction. A systematic assessment of landslide hazard requires understanding of two components, "where" and "when" that landslides may occur. Presently no such system exists for Guwahati city due to lack of landslide inventory data, high resolution thematic maps, DEM, sparse rain gauge network, etc. The present study elucidates the potential of space-based inputs in addressing the problem in absence of field-based observing networks. First, Landslide susceptibility map in 1 : 10,000 scale was derived by integrating geospatial datasets interpreted from high resolution satellite data. Secondly, the rainfall threshold for dynamic triggering of landslide was estimated using rainfall estimates from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis. The 3B41RT data for 1 hourly rainfall estimates were used to make Intensity-Duration plot. Critical rainfall was estimated for every incidence by analysing cumulative rainfall leading to a landslide for total of 19 incidences and an empirical rainfall intensity-duration threshold for triggering shallow debris slides was developed (Intensity = 5.9 Duration-0.479).

  7. Where do forests influence rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

    2017-04-01

    Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

  8. Aerosol loading impact on Asian monsoon precipitation patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Riccardo; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Costabile, Francesca; Cairo, Francesco

    2017-04-01

    Solar light absorption by aerosols such as black carbon and dust assume a key role in driving the precipitation patterns in the Indian subcontinent. The aerosols stack up against the foothills of the Himalayas in the pre-monsoon season and several studies have already demonstrated that this can cause precipitation anomalies during summer. Despite its great significance in climate change studies, the link between absorbing aerosols loading and precipitation patterns remains highly uncertain. The main challenge for this kind of studies is to find consistent and reliable datasets. Several aerosol time series are available from satellite and ground based instruments and some precipitation datasets from satellite sensors, but they all have different time/spatial resolution and they use different assumptions for estimating the parameter of interest. We have used the aerosol estimations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and validated them against the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements in the Indian area. The precipitation has been analyzed by using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimations and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). From our results it is evident the discrepancy between the aerosol loading on the area of interest from the OMI, AATSR, and MODIS, but even between 3 different algorithms applied to the MODIS data. This uncertainty does not allow to clearly distinguishing high aerosol loading years from low aerosol loading years except in a couple of cases where all the estimations agree. Similar issues are also present in the precipitation estimations from TRMM and MERRA-2. However, all the aerosol datasets agree in defining couples of consecutive years with a large gradient of aerosol loading. Based on this assumption we have compared the precipitation anomalies and

  9. Convective Systems during the South China Sea Monsoon Onset and Post-Onset Simulated by a Cloud Resolving Model Using SCSMEX Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Johnson, D.; Simpson, J.; Braun, S.; Wang, J.-J.; Johnson, R.; Ciesielski, E.; Starr, David O'C. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX, 1998), one of several major TRMM field experiments, has successfully obtained a wealth of information and observational data on the summer monsoon onset and evolution in the South China Sea region. The primary goal of the experiment is to provide a better understanding of the key physical processes for the onset and maintenance of the monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China leading to improved predictions. In this paper, our objective is to investigate the major physical and microphysical processes involved in the convective systems that developed during the onset and post-onset of the South China Sea monsoon - for both the similarities and differences between these two phases. There are two episodes simulated in this study, one of the onset period (May 18-26, 1998) and one of the post-onset period (June 2-11, 1998). The focus of this paper is to study four major aspects between these two different episodes. First, characteristics of rainfall such as rainfall amount and occurrence in the convective and stratiform regions are investigated, as well as the propagation of convective systems. The numerical precipitation fields are also validated against both the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) soundings and Precipitation Radar (PR) observations. Second, the domain-averaged heat and moisture budgets are analyzed to comprehend the essential roles played by physical processes such as the large-scale forcing and latent heat flux. Third, the microphysical processes associated with warm rain or ice are also closely examined during these two episodes. Finally, vertical distributions of Q1 and Q2 budgets are presented to perform a detailed discussion on the energy and moisture cascade in the vertical direction.

  10. Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Cornelia; Bliefernicht, Jan; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Gessner, Ursula; Klein, Igor; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-05-01

    West Africa is a hot spot region for land-atmosphere coupling where atmospheric conditions and convective rainfall can strongly depend on surface characteristics. To investigate the effect of natural interannual vegetation changes on the West African monsoon precipitation, we implement satellite-derived dynamical datasets for vegetation fraction (VF), albedo and leaf area index into the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two sets of 4-member ensembles with dynamic and static land surface description are used to extract vegetation-related changes in the interannual difference between August-September 2009 and 2010. The observed vegetation patterns retain a significant long-term memory of preceding rainfall patterns of at least 2 months. The interannual vegetation changes exhibit the strongest effect on latent heat fluxes and associated surface temperatures. We find a decrease (increase) of rainy hours over regions with higher (lower) VF during the day and the opposite during the night. The probability that maximum precipitation is shifted to nighttime (daytime) over higher (lower) VF is 12 % higher than by chance. We attribute this behaviour to horizontal circulations driven by differential heating. Over more vegetated regions, the divergence of moist air together with lower sensible heat fluxes hinders the initiation of deep convection during the day. During the night, mature convective systems cause an increase in the number of rainy hours over these regions. We identify this feedback in both water- and energy-limited regions of West Africa. The inclusion of observed dynamical surface information improved the spatial distribution of modelled rainfall in the Sahel with respect to observations, illustrating the potential of satellite data as a boundary constraint for atmospheric models.

  11. Transient coupling relationships of the Holocene Australian monsoon

    CERN Document Server

    McRobie, Fiona H; Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz

    2015-01-01

    The modern-day northwest Australian summer monsoon is dynamically coupled to other regional monsoon systems and inflows from the Indian Ocean, however, the nature of these relationships over longer time scales is uncertain. Previous attempts to evaluate how proxy records from the Indonesian-Australian monsoon region correspond to other records from the Indian and East Asian monsoon regions, as well as to El Ni\\~no-related proxy records, has been qualitative, relying on `curve-fitting' methods. Here, we seek a quantitative approach for identifying coupling relationships between paleoclimate proxy records, employing statistical techniques to compute the interdependence of two paleoclimate time series. We verify the use of complex networks to identify coupling relationships between modern climate indices which correspond to physically-based mechanisms. This method is then extended to a set of paleoclimate proxy records from the Asian, Australasian and South American regions spanning the past 9,000 years. The res...

  12. Monsoon regime in the Indian Ocean and zooplankton variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nair, V.R.

    The monsoonal effects on zooplankton lead to characteristic zoogeographic patterns in the open ocean and coastal waters. The evaluation of zooplankton variability in the Indian Ocean is presented in three sections: the open ocean, coastal waters...

  13. Air sea interaction during summer monsoon period of 1979

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    The present study highlights the utility of satellite derived parameters like SST, precipitation, CMV winds in the lower troposphere etc. in supplementing the in-situ observations. This information can lead to a better understanding of the monsoon...

  14. Monsoonal differences and probability distribution of PM(10) concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Md Yusof, Noor Faizah Fitri; Ramli, Nor Azam; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri; Sansuddin, Nurulilyana; Ghazali, Nurul Adyani; Al Madhoun, Wesam

    2010-04-01

    There are many factors that influence PM(10) concentration in the atmosphere. This paper will look at the PM(10) concentration in relation with the wet season (north east monsoon) and dry season (south west monsoon) in Seberang Perai, Malaysia from the year 2000 to 2004. It is expected that PM(10) will reach the peak during south west monsoon as the weather during this season becomes dry and this study has proved that the highest PM(10) concentrations in 2000 to 2004 were recorded in this monsoon. Two probability distributions using Weibull and lognormal were used to model the PM(10) concentration. The best model used for prediction was selected based on performance indicators. Lognormal distribution represents the data better than Weibull distribution model for 2000, 2001, and 2002. However, for 2003 and 2004, Weibull distribution represents better than the lognormal distribution. The proposed distributions were successfully used for estimation of exceedences and predicting the return periods of the sequence year.

  15. Indian monsoon cycles through the last twelve million years

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gupta, S.M.

    time and in the geological past. An attempt is made to present monsoon, an interdisciplinary subject, in simple ways by briefly introducing the atmospheric, oceanic, solar, planetary, and orbital forcing on monsoon, based on established phenomenon..., inter tropical convection zone, winds, clouds, rains, El-Nino, sea surface temperature), solar (Sunspots, flares, and irradiance), lunar (tidal force), planetary (gravitational perturbations), and the Earth’s orbital forces (the eccentricity...

  16. Land-surface processes and monsoon climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William; Boone, Arron; Mechoso, Carlos

    2015-04-01

    Yongkang Xue, F. De Sales, B. Lau, A. Boone, C. R. Mechoso Differential thermal heating of land and ocean and heat release into the atmosphere are important factors that determine the onset, strength, duration and spatial distribution of large-scale monsoons. A global and seasonal assessment of land surface process (LSP) effects on the monsoon system has been made based on general circulation models (GCM) coupled to different benchmark land models, which physically represent either comprehensive, or partial, or minimal LSP representations. Observed precipitation is applied as constrain and differences in simulation error are used to assess the effect of the LSP with different complexity. The AGCM results indicate that the land/atmosphere interaction has substantial impact on global water cycle, while the monsoon regions have had strongest impact at intraseasonal to decadal scales. Among monsoon regions, West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Amazon regions have largest impact while some monsoon regions have less impact due to strong air/sea interactions and narrow land mass there. LSP reduces the annual precipitation error by 58% over global monsoon regions, about 35% observed precipitation. The partial LSP effect (excluding soil moisture and vegetation albedo) reduces annual precipitation error over monsoon region that equals to about 13% of observed precipitation. The LSP affects the monsoon evolution through different mechanisms at different scales. It affects the surface energy balance and energy partitioning in latent and sensible heat, the atmospheric heating rate, and general circulation. The LSP effects have also been assessed in the land use land cover change experiment. Based on recently compiled global land-use data from 1948-2005, the GCM simulation results indicate the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produce substantial precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation

  17. Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States); University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Liu, Jian [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Nanjing (China); Kim, Hyung-Jin [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan); Webster, Peter J. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Yim, So-Young [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2012-09-15

    The global monsoon (GM) is a defining feature of the annual variation of Earth's climate system. Quantifying and understanding the present-day monsoon precipitation change are crucial for prediction of its future and reflection of its past. Here we show that regional monsoons are coordinated not only by external solar forcing but also by internal feedback processes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From one monsoon year (May to the next April) to the next, most continental monsoon regions, separated by vast areas of arid trade winds and deserts, vary in a cohesive manner driven by ENSO. The ENSO has tighter regulation on the northern hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) than on the southern hemisphere summer monsoon (SHSM). More notably, the GM precipitation (GMP) has intensified over the past three decades mainly due to the significant upward trend in NHSM. The intensification of the GMP originates primarily from an enhanced east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific Ocean, which is coupled with a rising pressure in the subtropical eastern Pacific and decreasing pressure over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. While this mechanism tends to amplify both the NHSM and SHSM, the stronger (weaker) warming trend in the NH (SH) creates a hemispheric thermal contrast, which favors intensification of the NHSM but weakens the SHSM. The enhanced Pacific zonal thermal contrast is largely a result of natural variability, whilst the enhanced hemispherical thermal contrast is likely due to anthropogenic forcing. We found that the enhanced global summer monsoon not only amplifies the annual cycle of tropical climate but