Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Calzadilla, Alvaro; Zhu, Tingju; Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S J; Ringler, Claudia

2013-01-01

Two possible adaptation scenarios to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears.

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, Eric V; Wilson, Ryan R; Rode, Karyn D; Runge, Michael C; Stern, Harry L

2017-10-01

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity ( K ). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K , and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63-0·74) of K . Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79-0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate - which could be 0 in some situations - accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate. Synthesis and applications . We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple conservation

Polarizing news? Representations of threat and efficacy in leading US newspapers' coverage of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol; Milosevic, Tijana

2017-05-01

This study examines non-editorial news coverage in leading US newspapers as a source of ideological differences on climate change. A quantitative content analysis compared how the threat of climate change and efficacy for actions to address it were represented in climate change coverage across The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and USA Today between 2006 and 2011. Results show that The Wall Street Journal was least likely to discuss the impacts of and threat posed by climate change and most likely to include negative efficacy information and use conflict and negative economic framing when discussing actions to address climate change. The inclusion of positive efficacy information was similar across newspapers. Also, across all newspapers, climate impacts and actions to address climate change were more likely to be discussed separately than together in the same article. Implications for public engagement and ideological polarization are discussed.

Detecting CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wigley, T M.L.; Jones, P D

1981-07-16

Although it is widely believed that increasing atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels will cause noticeable global warming, the effects are not yet detectable, possibly because of the 'noise' of natural climatic variability. An examination of the spatial and seasonal distribution of signal-to-noise ratio shows that the highest values occur in summer and annual mean surface temperatures averaged over the Northern Hemisphere or over mid-latitudes. The spatial and seasonal characteristics of the early twentieth century warming were similar to those expected from increasing CO/sub 2/ based on an equilibrium response model. This similarity may hinder the early detection of CO/sub 2/ effects on climate.

Harvesting wildlife affected by climate change: a modelling and management approach for polar bears

Science.gov (United States)

Regehr, Eric V.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Rode, Karyn D.; Runge, Michael C.; Stern, Harry

2017-01-01

The conservation of many wildlife species requires understanding the demographic effects of climate change, including interactions between climate change and harvest, which can provide cultural, nutritional or economic value to humans.We present a demographic model that is based on the polar bear Ursus maritimus life cycle and includes density-dependent relationships linking vital rates to environmental carrying capacity (K). Using this model, we develop a state-dependent management framework to calculate a harvest level that (i) maintains a population above its maximum net productivity level (MNPL; the population size that produces the greatest net increment in abundance) relative to a changing K, and (ii) has a limited negative effect on population persistence.Our density-dependent relationships suggest that MNPL for polar bears occurs at approximately 0·69 (95% CI = 0·63–0·74) of K. Population growth rate at MNPL was approximately 0·82 (95% CI = 0·79–0·84) of the maximum intrinsic growth rate, suggesting relatively strong compensation for human-caused mortality.Our findings indicate that it is possible to minimize the demographic risks of harvest under climate change, including the risk that harvest will accelerate population declines driven by loss of the polar bear's sea-ice habitat. This requires that (i) the harvest rate – which could be 0 in some situations – accounts for a population's intrinsic growth rate, (ii) the harvest rate accounts for the quality of population data (e.g. lower harvest when uncertainty is large), and (iii) the harvest level is obtained by multiplying the harvest rate by an updated estimate of population size. Environmental variability, the sex and age of removed animals and risk tolerance can also affect the harvest rate.Synthesis and applications. We present a coupled modelling and management approach for wildlife that accounts for climate change and can be used to balance trade-offs among multiple

Astronomical theory of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berger, A.; Loutre, M.F. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre

2004-12-01

The astronomical theory of paleo-climates aims to explain the climatic variations occurring with quasi-periodicities lying between tens and hundreds of thousands of years. The origin of these quasi-cycles lies in the astronomically driven changes in the latitudinal and seasonal distributions of the energy that the Earth receives from the Sun. These changes are then amplified by the feedback mechanisms which characterize the natural behaviour of the climate system like those involving the albedo-, the water vapor-, and the vegetation- temperature relationships. Climate models of different complexities are used to explain the chain of processes which finally link the long-term variations of three astronomical parameters to the long-term climatic variations at time scale of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. In particular, sensitivity analysis to the astronomically driven insolation changes and to the CO{sub 2} atmospheric concentrations have been performed with the 2-dimension climate model of Louvain-la-Neuve. It could be shown that this model simulates more or less correctly the entrance into glaciation around 2.75 million year (Myr) BP (before present), the late Pliocene-early Pleistocene 41-kyr (thousand years) cycle, the emergence of the 100-kyr cycle around 850 kyr BP and the glacial-interglacial cycles of the last 600 kyr. During the Late Pliocene (in an ice-free - warm world) ice sheets can only develop during times of sufficiently low summer insolation. This occurs during large eccentricity times when climatic precession and obliquity combine to obtain such low values, leading to the 41-kyr period between 3 and 1 million years BP. On the contrary in a glacial world, ice sheets persist most of the time except when insolation is very high in polar latitudes, requiring large eccentricity again, but leading this time to interglacial and finally to the 100-kyr period of the last 1 Myr. Using CO{sub 2} scenarios, it has been shown that stage 11 and stage 1

A Web-Based Polar Firn Model to Motivate Interest in Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, P. D.; Lundin, J.; Stevens, C.; Leahy, W.; Waddington, E. D.

2013-12-01

How long would you have to dig straight down in Greenland before you reached solid ice? This is one of many questions that could be answered by a typical high school student using our online firn model. Firn is fallen snow that compacts under its own weight and eventually turns into glacial ice. The Herron and Langway (1980) firn model describes this process. An important component of predicting future climate change is researching past climate change. Some details of our past climate are discovered by analyzing polar ice and the firn process. Firn research can also be useful for understanding how changes in ice surface levels reflect changes in the ice mass. We have produced an online version of the Herron and Langway model that provides a simple way for students to learn how polar snow turns into ice. As a user, you can enter some climatic conditions (accumulation rate, temperature, and surface density) into our graphical user interface and press 'Submit'. We take the numbers you enter in your internet browser, send them to the model written in Python that is running on our server, and provide links to your results, all within seconds. The model produces firn depth, density, and age data. The results appear on the webpage in both text and graphical format. We have developed an example lesson plan appropriate for a high-school physics or environmental science class. The online model offers students an opportunity to apply their scientific knowledge in order to understand real-world physical processes. Additionally, students learn about scientific research and the tools scientists use to conduct it. The model can be used as a standalone lesson or as a part of a larger climate-science unit. The online model was created with funding from the Washington NASA Space Grant Consortium and the National Science Foundation's Partnerships for International Research and Education program.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dercon, Gerd [Soil and Water Management and Crop Nutrition Subprogramme, Joint FAO/IAEA Division of Nuclear Techniques in Food and Agriculture, IAEA, Seibersdorf (Austria); Gerardo-Abaya, Jane [Division for Asia and the Pacific Section 2, Department of Technical Cooperation, IAEA, Vienna (Austria); Mavlyudov, Bulat [Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); others, and

2014-07-15

The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Water-Ecosystem Quality in Polar and Mountainous Regions: A New Interregional Project (INT5153)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dercon, Gerd; Gerardo-Abaya, Jane; Mavlyudov, Bulat

2014-01-01

The INT5153 project aims to improve the understanding of the impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems on both a local and global scale for their better management and conservation. Seven core and five related benchmark sites have been selected from different global regions for specific assessments of the impact of climate change with the following expected outcomes and outputs: Outcomes: • Improved understanding of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere in polar and mountainous ecosystems and its effects on landwater- ecosystem quality at both local and global scales. • Recommendations for improvement of regional policies for soil and agricultural water management, conservation, and environmental protection in polar and mountainous regions. Outputs: • Specific strategies to minimize the adverse effects of, and adapt to, reduced seasonal snow and glacier covered areas on land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountain regions across the world. • Enhanced interregional network of laboratories and institutions competent in the assessment of climate change impacts on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality, using isotopic and nuclear techniques. • Increased number of young scientists trained in the use of isotope and nuclear techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the cryosphere and land-water-ecosystem quality in polar and mountainous ecosystems. • Platform/database with global access for continuing work and monitoring of impact of climate change on fragile polar and mountainous ecosystems at local and global scales, as well as for communicating findings to policy makers and communities. • Improved understanding of the effects of climate change disseminated through appropriate publications, policy briefs, and through a dedicated internet platform. • Methodologies and protocols for investigations in specific ecosystems and conservation/adaptation measures for agriculture areas

Spatial and temporal variation in size of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sexual organs and its use in pollution and climate change studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonne, Christian; Dietz, Rune; Born, Erik W; Riget, Frank F; Leifsson, Pall S; Bechshøft, Thea Ø; Kirkegaard, Maja

2007-11-15

Sexual organs and their development are susceptible to atmospheric transported environmental xenoendocrine pollutants and climate change (food availability). We therefore investigated sexual organs from 55 male and 44 female East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to obtain information about growth/size and sexual maturity. Then, the genitalia size was compared with those previously reported from Canadian and Svalbard polar bears. Growth models showed that East Greenland male polar bears reached sexual maturity around 7 years of age and females around 4 years of age. When comparing East Greenland and Svalbard polar bears, the size of baculum and uterus were significantly lower in the East Greenland polar bears (ANOVA: all p polar bears, a similar baculum pattern was found for East Greenland vs. Canadian polar bears. It is speculated whether this could be a result of the general high variation in polar bear body size, temporal distribution patterns of anthropogenic long-range transported persistent organic pollutants or climate change (decreasing food availability). The present investigation represents conservation and background data for future spatial and temporal assessments of hunting, pollution and climate change scenarios.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

Science.gov (United States)

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

A changing world: Using nuclear techniques to investigate the impact of climate change on polar and mountainous regions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henriques, Sasha

2015-01-01

Nuclear techniques are being used in polar and mountainous regions to study climate change and its impact on the quality of land, water and ecosystems in order to better conserve and manage these resources. Researchers from around the world will be using data from 13 benchmark sites to draw conclusions about the effects of the rapidly changing climate on the Arctic, mountains and the western part of Antarctica, which have alarmed communities, environmentalists, scientists and policy makers. Between July 2015 and July 2016 they will be using isotopic and nuclear techniques, as well as geochemical and biological analytical methods from other scientific disciplines. This will enable them to track soil and water, to monitor the movement of soil and sediment and to assess the effects of melting permafrost on the atmosphere, as well as on the land, water and fragile ecosystems of mountainous and polar regions. The measurements follow numerous on-site tests carried out since November 2014 to perfect the sampling technique.

The impact of climate and CO{sub 2} changes on ecosystem dynamics of the continental United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ojima, D.S. [Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO (United States)

1995-06-01

The VEMAP study used three biogeochemical (BGC) models to investigate the impact of changes in climate and CO{sub 2} concentrations over the continental US. These models were Biome-BGC, CENTURY, and TEM. Differences among the BGC models and the climate scenarios (three different GCM-derived 2xCO{sub 2} climates were used) contributed equally to the variation in estimates of C dynamics under changing climate and CO,. The response of the individual biogeochemical models to increases in temperature and tp water stress are largely responsible for their behavior under climate change. All three models generally predict increases in C uptake when increases in temperature are not vastly greater than increases in precipitation, such as seen in the GFDL scenario. Differences in the biotic response to elevated CO{sub 2} determined the overall response of NPP and total system C storage due to differences on the manner in which plant C/N, transpiration, and photosynthesis are modified by the three different BGC models.

Politics of climate change belief

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

Science.gov (United States)

Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

Polar Environment and Climate. The Challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardinal, D.; Lipiatou, E.

2007-01-01

This publication summarises the presentations and discussions held during the title symposium. It includes session reports by chairs and short papers from attendees who were also invited to contribute. The report follows the structure of this multidisciplinary symposium: General session on the International Polar Year (IPY); Past, present and future climate; Human and wildlife health; Natural and socioeconomics impacts of climate change and finally, Public outreach, education and policy makers. The publication illustrates the importance and diversity of European research in the Polar Regions. It also identifies gaps in our current understanding of these particularly complex and vulnerable environments and the related research needs

Traditional Knowledge About Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus in East Greenland: Changes in the Catch and Climate Over Two Decades

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristin L. Laidre

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In Greenland, polar bears (Ursus maritimus are nutritional, economic, and cultural subsistence resources for Inuit. Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK collected from subsistence hunters can provide important insights and improve management decisions when collected systematically. We report on the results of a TEK survey of subsistence polar bear hunters living in the areas around Tasiilaq and Ittoqqortoormiit, East Greenland. Twenty-five full-time polar bear hunters were interviewed between December 2014 and March 2015 in a conversation-style interview, where a local interviewer fluent in the East Greenlandic dialect asked a series of 55 predetermined questions. The primary goals were to (1 gather Inuit perspectives on polar bear subsistence quotas and hunting strategies, (2 understand how climate change is affecting the polar bear subsistence hunt, and (3 document observed changes in polar bear distribution, abundance, and biology. Approximately 40% of the Tasiilaq respondents had caught between 10 and 19 polar bears in their lifetime, while 67% of Ittoqqortoormiit respondents reported lifetime catches of ≥20 bears. In both areas, polar bears were most commonly hunted between February and April. Hunters noted large changes to the climate in the areas where they hunt polar bears. Most hunters reported loss of sea ice, receding glaciers, unstable weather, and warmer temperatures. In Tasiilaq 73% of the hunters said climate changes had affected the polar bear hunt and in Ittoqqortoormiit about 88% of respondents reported the same. Hunters indicated that sea ice loss has created more areas of open water so dog sledges have become unsafe for hunting transportation compared to 10–15 years ago (reported by 100% of hunters in Tasiilaq and 80% in Ittoqqortoormiit. In Ittoqqortoormiit, the distance traveled during polar bear hunting trips has decreased dramatically. In both areas hunters noted that more polar bears are coming into their

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

2010-10-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

CO{sub 2}-induced climate change in northern Europe: comparison of 12 CMIP2 experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raeisaenen, Jouni

2000-01-01

The results of 12 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model experiments participating in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are studied with focus on the area of northern Europe. The variables considered are surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure. The 80-year control simulations are first compared with observational estimates of the present climate. Several aspects of the simulated CO{sub 2}-induced climate changes, defined by subtracting the control run seasonal or annual means from 20-year perturbation run means around the transient doubling of CO{sub 2}, are then studied. The common features and individual variations in the simulated climate change are documented. Particular attention is put on expressing the inter experiment agreement in quantitative terms and on estimating the relative contribution of model-simulated internal variability to the inter experiment variance. For that purpose, a new statistical framework is developed. Finally, an attempt is made to statistically relate the inter experiment differences in the simulated climate change in northern Europe to aspects of the control climates, global climate change and some of the basic model characteristics. A summary of the main findings is given in the last section of the report.

Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

2014-08-01

Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bringing Society to a Changing Polar Ocean: Polar Interdisciplinary Coordinated Education (ICE)

Science.gov (United States)

Schofield, O.

2015-12-01

Environmental changes in the Arctic and Antarctic appear to be accelerating and scientists are trying to understand both the patterns and the impacts of change. These changes will have profound impact on humanity and create a need for public education about these critical habitats. We have focused on a two-pronged strategy to increase public awareness as well as enable educators to discuss comfortably the implications of climate change. Our first focus is on entraining public support through the development of science documentaries about the science and people who conduct it. Antarctic Edge is a feature length award-winning documentary about climate change that has been released in May 2015 and has garnered interest in movie theatres and on social media stores (NetFlix, ITunes). This broad outreach is coupled with our group's interest assisting educators formally. The majority of current polar education is focused on direct educator engagement through personal research experiences that have impact on the participating educators' classrooms. Polar Interdisciplinary Coordinated Education (ICE) proposes to improve educator and student engagement in polar sciences through exposure to scientists and polar data. Through professional development and the creation of data tools, Polar ICE will reduce the logistical costs of bringing polar science to students in grades 6-16. We will provide opportunities to: 1) build capacity of polar scientists in communicating and engaging with diverse audiences; 2) create scalable, in-person and virtual opportunities for educators and students to engage with polar scientists and their research through data visualizations, data activities, educator workshops, webinars, and student research symposia; and 3) evaluate the outcomes of Polar ICE and contribute to our understanding of science education practices. We will use a blended learning approach to promote partnerships and cross-disciplinary sharing. This combined multi-pronged approach

Relative influences of climate change and human activity on the onshore distribution of polar bears

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; St. Martin, Michelle; Atwood, Todd C.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Miller, Susanne; Divoky, George J.

2017-01-01

Climate change is altering habitat for many species, leading to shifts in distributions that can increase levels of human-wildlife conflict. To develop effective strategies for minimizing human-wildlife conflict, we must understand the relative influences that climate change and other factors have on wildlife distributions. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are increasingly using land during summer and autumn due to sea ice loss, leading to higher incidents of conflict and concerns for human safety. We sought to understand the relative influence of sea ice conditions, onshore habitat characteristics, and human-provisioned food attractants on the distribution and abundance of polar bears while on shore. We also wanted to determine how mitigation measures might reduce human-polar bear conflict associated with an anthropogenic food source. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model based on 14 years of aerial survey data to estimate the weekly number and distribution of polar bears on the coast of northern Alaska in autumn. We then used the model to predict how effective two management options for handling subsistence-harvested whale remains in the community of Kaktovik, Alaska might be. The distribution of bears on shore was most strongly influenced by the presence of whale carcasses and to a lesser extent sea ice and onshore habitat conditions. The numbers of bears on shore were related to sea ice conditions. The two management strategies for handling the whale carcasses reduced the estimated number of bears near Kaktovik by > 75%. By considering multiple factors associated with the onshore distribution and abundance of polar bears we discerned what role human activities played in where bears occur and how successful efforts to manage the whale carcasses might be for reducing human-polar bear conflict.

Identification and preliminary characterization of global water resource issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Callaway, J.M.; Cohen, M.L.; Currie, J.W.

1984-04-01

The objectives were to: (1) identify, characterize, and define existing or projected regional and global water resource management issues which may be affected by CO/sub 2/-induced climate changes; and (2) develop research priorities for acquiring additional information about the potential effects of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on the availability and allocation of freshwater supplies. The research was broken into four work elements: (1) identification of water resource management issues on a global and regional basis; (2) identification of a subset of generic CO/sub 2/-related water resource management issues believed to have the highest probability of being affected, beneficially or adversely, by a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change; (3) selection of specific sites for examining the potential effect of a CO/sub 2/-induced climate change on these issues; and (4) conducting detailed case studies at these sites, the results from which will be used to identify future research and data needs in the area of water resources. This report summarizes the research related to the first three work elements. 6 figures, 9 tables.

Composition tuning of rectifying polarity of colloidal CdS{sub 1−x}Se{sub x} nanocrystal-based devices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

An, Yuehua; Wu, Zhenping; Chu, Xulong; Guo, Daoyou; Guo, Xuncai [Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Laboratory of Optoelectronics Materials and Devices, School of Science (China); Li, Linghong [The State University of New York at Potsdam, Physics Department (United States); Li, Peigang, E-mail: pgli@zstu.edu.cn [Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Department of Physics, Center for Optoelectronics Materials and Devices (China); Tang, Hao [The University of Tennessee at Knoxville, Department of Chemistry (United States); Tang, Weihua, E-mail: whtang@bupt.edu.cn [Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Laboratory of Optoelectronics Materials and Devices, School of Science (China)

2015-03-15

CdS{sub 1–x}Se{sub x} colloidal nanocrystals (NCs) were synthesized by colloidal chemistry route. Both lattice parameters and band structure were modulated by tuning the content of Se. As the Se content increases, the peak of UV–Visible absorbance spectrum of CdS{sub 1−x}Se{sub x} shifts toward longer wavelength direction, indicating the reduction of band gap. Devices with Au/CdS{sub 1−x}Se{sub x} NCs/Au structures have been fabricated by assembling the obtained CdS{sub 1−x}Se{sub x} NCs into Au microelectrodes via dielectrophoresis method. It is found that the rectifying polarities of the devices are strongly dependent on the content of Se. With the increasing Se content, the rectification polarity changes from backward to forward. This polarity tuning could be caused by the change of the relative height of the Fermi levels between CdS{sub 1−x}Se{sub x} and Au. The Se-content-dependent rectifying behavior may offer us an opportunity to design novel logical structure in NC-based nanoelectronics.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

A note on the perverse effects of actively open-minded thinking on climate-change polarization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan M. Kahan

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This research note presents evidence that political polarization over the reality of human-caused climate change increases in tandem with individuals’ scores on a standard measure of actively open-minded thinking. This finding is at odds with the position that attributes political conflict over facts to a personality trait of closed-mindedness associated with political conservatism.

Uncertainties in forecasting the response of polar bears to global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, David C.; Atwood, Todd C.; Butterworth, Andy

2017-01-01

Several sources of uncertainty affect how precisely the future status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) can be forecasted. Foremost are unknowns about the future levels of global greenhouse gas emissions, which could range from an unabated increase to an aggressively mitigated reduction. Uncertainties also arise because different climate models project different amounts and rates of future warming (and sea ice loss)—even for the same emission scenario. There are also uncertainties about how global warming could affect the Arctic Ocean’s food web, so even if climate models project the presence of sea ice in the future, the availability of polar bear prey is not guaranteed. Under a worst-case emission scenario in which rates of greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated to century’s end, the uncertainties about polar bear status center on a potential for extinction. If the species were to persist, it would likely be restricted to a high-latitude refugium in northern Canada and Greenland—assuming a food web also existed with enough accessible prey to fuel weight gains for surviving onshore during the most extreme years of summer ice melt. On the other hand, if emissions were to be aggressively mitigated at the levels proposed in the Paris Climate Agreement, healthy polar bear populations would probably continue to occupy all but the most southern areas of their contemporary summer range. While polar bears have survived previous warming phases—which indicate some resiliency to the loss of sea ice habitat—what is certain is that the present pace of warming is unprecedented and will increasingly expose polar bears to historically novel stressors.

Polar ionospheric responses to solar wind IMF changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Zhang

Full Text Available Auroral and airglow emissions over Eureka (89^° CGM during the 1997-98 winter show striking variations in relation to solar wind IMF changes. The period January 19 to 22, 1998, was chosen for detailed study, as the IMF was particularly strong and variable. During most of the period, B<sub>z> was northward and polar arcs were observed. Several overpasses by DMSP satellites during the four day period provided a clear picture of the particle precipitation producing the polar arcs. The spectral character of these events indicated excitation by electrons of average energy 300 to 500 eV. Only occasionally were electrons of average energy up to ~1 keV observed and these appeared transitory from the ground optical data. It is noted that polar arcs appear after sudden changes in IMF B<sub>y>, suggesting IMF control over arc initiation. When B<sub>y> is positive there is arc motion from dawn to dusk, while B<sub>y> is negative the motion is consistently dusk to dawn. F-region (anti-sunward convections were monitored through the period from 630.0 nm emissions. The convection speed was low (100-150 m/s when B<sub>z> was northward but increased to 500 m/s after B<sub>z> turned southward on January 20.

Key words: Atmospheric composition and structure (airglow and aurora - Ionosphere (particle precipitation - Magnetospheric Physics (polar cap phenomena

Global observation of EKC hypothesis for CO{sub 2}, SO{sub x} and NO{sub x} emission: A policy understanding for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Danesh Miah, Md., E-mail: dansforestry@yahoo.co [Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331 (Bangladesh); Forest Policy Laboratory, Shinshu University, 8304 Minamimminowa-Mura, Kami Ina Gun, 399-4598 Nagano-ken (Japan); Farhad Hossain Masum, Md. [Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331 (Bangladesh); Koike, Masao [Forest Policy Laboratory, Shinshu University, 8304 Minamimminowa-Mura, Kami Ina Gun, 399-4598 Nagano-ken (Japan)

2010-08-15

Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is critical to understanding the developmental path of a nation in relation to its environment. How the effects of economic development processes dictate environmental changes can be found through the study of EKC. To understand the EKC phenomena for climate change, this study was undertaken by reviewing the available literature. As CO{sub 2}, SO{sub x} and NO{sub x} are the significant greenhouse gases (GHG) responsible for global warming, thus leading to climate change, the study focused on those GHGs for EKC consideration. With an understanding of the different EKC trajectories, an attempt was made to determine the implications for the economic development of Bangladesh in regards to the EKC. It was shown that EKC for CO{sub 2} was following a monotonous straight line in most cases. SO{sub x} were shown to follow the full trajectory of the EKC in most situations and NO{sub x} was shown the hope only for the developed countries getting the low-income turning point. The type of economic policy that Bangladesh should follow in regards to the discussed pollutants and sources is also revealed. From these discussions, contributions to policy stimulation in Bangladesh are likely to be made.

Global observation of EKC hypothesis for CO{sub 2}, SO{sub x} and NO{sub x} emission. A policy understanding for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Danesh Miah, Md. [Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331 (Bangladesh); Forest Policy Laboratory, Shinshu University, 8304 Minamimminowa-Mura, Kami Ina Gun, 399-4598 Nagano-ken (Japan); Farhad Hossain Masum, Md. [Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331 (Bangladesh); Koike, Masao [Forest Policy Laboratory, Shinshu University, 8304 Minamimminowa-Mura, Kami Ina Gun, 399-4598 Nagano-ken (Japan)

2010-08-15

Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is critical to understanding the developmental path of a nation in relation to its environment. How the effects of economic development processes dictate environmental changes can be found through the study of EKC. To understand the EKC phenomena for climate change, this study was undertaken by reviewing the available literature. As CO{sub 2}, SO{sub x} and NO{sub x} are the significant greenhouse gases (GHG) responsible for global warming, thus leading to climate change, the study focused on those GHGs for EKC consideration. With an understanding of the different EKC trajectories, an attempt was made to determine the implications for the economic development of Bangladesh in regards to the EKC. It was shown that EKC for CO{sub 2} was following a monotonous straight line in most cases. SO{sub x} were shown to follow the full trajectory of the EKC in most situations and NO{sub x} was shown the hope only for the developed countries getting the low-income turning point. The type of economic policy that Bangladesh should follow in regards to the discussed pollutants and sources is also revealed. From these discussions, contributions to policy stimulation in Bangladesh are likely to be made. (author)

Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'International instruments for climate change policy'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruggink, J.J.C.; Van Beek, P.; Folmer, H.; Zhang, Z.X.; Blok, K.; Phylipsen, D.; Worrell, E.; Gupta, J.; Junne, G.; Van der Wurff, R.

1995-01-01

The projects implemented in the Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change are organised in several themes and sub-themes. Within the theme on Sustainable Solutions five projects are grouped under the heading International Instruments for Climate Change Policy. These five projects deal primarily with issues concerning the position of developing countries in the debate on limiting global CO2-emissions. They cover a broad spectrum of topics: international negotiation strategies, tropical deforestation, industrial energy conservation, national energy scenarios, emission guidelines. This contribution presents an overview of the objectives, methodologies and results of the projects and includes a critical evaluation of the potential relevance of the work for policy makers. 1 tab., 36 refs

What is happening in the International Polar Year? Latest news about the climate changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orheim, Olav

2008-01-01

The International Polar (IPY) Year 2007-2008 is a large scientific programme focused on the Arctic and the Antarctic. Scientists from over 60 nations participates. The IPY have two primary objectives: to improve weather forecasts especially regarding extreme weather and to improve climatic models for better understanding of possible instabilities, especially regarding ocean currents. The presentation includes data on natural climate change, temperature anomaly, the ice in the Arctic Ocean and Northern and Southern Hemisphere sea ice area, current in Southern and Northern hemisphere sea ice area and variations of the surface temperature ice arctic regions antarctic regions. The presentation was held at the MNT-Forum, 29. January 2008

Measurement of K/sub NN/, K/sub SS/, K/sub SL/, and K/sub LL/ in polarized np → polarized pn at 800 MeV in the CEX region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ransome, R.D.; Hollas, C.L.; Riley, P.J.

1980-01-01

The spin transfer parameters K/sub NN/, K/sub SS/, K/sub SL/, and K/sub LL/ have been measured for np elastic scattering at 800 MeV between 165 0 and 180 0 c.m. The parameters K/sub NN/ and K/sub LL/ are in good agreement with the quasi-free reaction polarized pd → polarized npp at 180 0

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herslund, Lise Byskov; Jalyer, Fatameh; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie

2016-01-01

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub- Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional...... encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential...

Twenty first century climate change as simulated by European climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubasch, Ulrich

2007-01-01

Full text: Climate change simulation results for seven European state-of-the-art climate models, participating in the European research project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts), will be presented. Models from Norway, France, Germany, Denmark, and Great Britain, representing a sub-ensemble of the models contributing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), are included. Climate simulations are conducted with all the models for present-day climate and for future climate under the SRES A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The design of the simulations follows the guidelines of the IPCC AR4. The 21st century projections are compared to the corresponding present-day simulations. The ensemble mean global mean near surface temperature rise for the year 2099 compared to the 1961-1990 period amounts to 3.2Kforthe A1B scenario, to 4.1 K for the A2 scenario, and to 2.1 K for the B1 scenario. The spatial patterns of temperature change are robust among the contributing models with the largest temperature increase over the Arctic in boreal winter, stronger warming overland than over ocean, and little warming over the southern oceans. The ensemble mean globally averaged precipitation increases for the three scenarios (5.6%, 5.7%, and 3.8% for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, respectively). The precipitation signals of the different models display a larger spread than the temperature signals. In general, precipitation increases in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the mid- to high latitudes (most pronounced during the hemispheric winter) and decreases in the subtropics. Sea-level pressure decreases over the polar regions in all models and all scenarios, which is mainly compensated by a pressure increase in the subtropical highs. These changes imply an intensification of the Southern and Northern Annular Modes

Climate change mitigation in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Bo

2012-07-01

China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

Dynamic Predictions of Crop Yield and Irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa Due to Climate Change Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Foster-Wittig, T.

2012-12-01

The highest damages from climate change are predicted to be in the agricultural sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Agriculture is predicted to be especially vulnerable in this region because of its current state of high temperature and low precipitation and because it is usually rain-fed or relies on relatively basic technologies which therefore limit its ability to sustain in increased poor climatic conditions [1]. The goal of this research is to quantify the vulnerability of this ecosystem by projecting future changes in agriculture due to IPCC predicted climate change impacts on precipitation and temperature. This research will provide a better understanding of the relationship between precipitation and rain-fed agriculture in savannas. In order to quantify the effects of climate change on agriculture, the impacts of climate change are modeled through the use of a land surface vegetation dynamics model previously developed combined with a crop model [2,4]. In this project, it will be used to model yield for point cropland locations within sub-Saharan Africa between Kenya and Botswana with a range of annual rainfall. With this model, future projections are developed for what can be anticipated for the crop yield based on two precipitation climate change scenarios; (1) decreased depth and (2) decreased frequency as well as temperature change scenarios; (3) only temperature increased, (4) temperature increase dand decreased precipitation depth, and (5) temperature increased and decreased precipitation frequency. Therefore, this will allow conclusions to be drawn about how mean precipitation and a changing climate effect food security in sub-Saharan Africa. As an additional analysis, irrigation is added to the model as it is thought to be the solution to protect food security by maximizing on the potential of food production. In water-limited areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa, it is important to consider water efficient irrigation techniques such as demand-based micro

Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Lucarini

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Using a recent theoretical approach, we study how global warming impacts the thermodynamics of the climate system by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. The intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle, the Carnot efficiency, the material entropy production, and the degree of irreversibility of the system change monotonically with the CO<sub>2sub> concentration. Moreover, these quantities feature an approximately linear behaviour with respect to the logarithm of the CO<sub>2sub> concentration in a relatively wide range. These generalized sensitivities suggest that the climate becomes less efficient, more irreversible, and features higher entropy production as it becomes warmer, with changes in the latent heat fluxes playing a predominant role. These results may be of help for explaining recent findings obtained with state of the art climate models regarding how increases in CO<sub>2sub> concentration impact the vertical stratification of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and the position of the storm tracks.

Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Spatial Sample Selection Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ward, P.S.; Florax, R.J.G.M.; Flores-Lagunes, A.

2014-01-01

Using spatially explicit data, we estimate a cereal yield response function using a recently developed estimator for spatial error models when endogenous sample selection is of concern. Our results suggest that yields across Sub-Saharan Africa will decline with projected climatic changes, and that

Invited review: climate change impacts in polar regions: lessons from Antarctic moss bank archives.

Science.gov (United States)

Royles, Jessica; Griffiths, Howard

2015-03-01

Mosses are the dominant plants in polar and boreal regions, areas which are experiencing rapid impacts of regional warming. Long-term monitoring programmes provide some records of the rate of recent climate change, but moss peat banks contain an unrivalled temporal record of past climate change on terrestrial plant Antarctic systems. We summarise the current understanding of climatic proxies and determinants of moss growth for contrasting continental and maritime Antarctic regions, as informed by 13C and 18O signals in organic material. Rates of moss accumulation are more than three times higher in the maritime Antarctic than continental Antarctica with growing season length being a critical determinant of growth rate, and high carbon isotope discrimination values reflecting optimal hydration conditions. Correlation plots of 13C and 18O values show that species (Chorisodontium aciphyllum / Polytrichum strictum) and growth form (hummock / bank) are the major determinants of measured isotope ratios. The interplay between moss growth form, photosynthetic physiology, water status and isotope composition are compared with developments of secondary proxies, such as chlorophyll fluorescence. These approaches provide a framework to consider the potential impact of climate change on terrestrial Antarctic habitats as well as having implications for future studies of temperate, boreal and Arctic peatlands. There are many urgent ecological and environmental problems in the Arctic related to mosses in a changing climate, but the geographical ranges of species and life-forms are difficult to track individually. Our goal was to translate what we have learned from the more simple systems in Antarctica, for application to Arctic habitats. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change Conceptual Change: Scientific Information Can Transform Attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Ranney, Michael Andrew; Clark, Dav

2016-01-01

Of this article's seven experiments, the first five demonstrate that virtually no Americans know the basic global warming mechanism. Fortunately, Experiments 2-5 found that 2-45 min of physical-chemical climate instruction durably increased such understandings. This mechanistic learning, or merely receiving seven highly germane statistical facts (Experiment 6), also increased climate-change acceptance-across the liberal-conservative spectrum. However, Experiment 7's misleading statistics decreased such acceptance (and dramatically, knowledge-confidence). These readily available attitudinal and conceptual changes through scientific information disconfirm what we term "stasis theory"--which some researchers and many laypeople varyingly maintain. Stasis theory subsumes the claim that informing people (particularly Americans) about climate science may be largely futile or even counterproductive--a view that appears historically naïve, suffers from range restrictions (e.g., near-zero mechanistic knowledge), and/or misinterprets some polarization and (noncausal) correlational data. Our studies evidenced no polarizations. Finally, we introduce HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org--a website designed to directly enhance public "climate-change cognition." Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Composition controlled spin polarization in Co{sub 1-x}Fe{sub x}S{sub 2} alloys

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leighton, C [Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of Minnesota (United States); Manno, M [Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of Minnesota (United States); Cady, A [Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory (United States); Freeland, J W [Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory (United States); Wang, L [Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of Minnesota (United States); Umemoto, K [Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of Minnesota (United States); Wentzcovitch, R M [Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, University of Minnesota (United States); Chen, T Y [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University (United States); Chien, C L [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University (United States); Kuhns, P L [National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, Florida State University (United States); Hoch, M J R [National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, Florida State University (United States); Reyes, A P [National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, Florida State University (United States); Moulton, W G [National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, Florida State University (United States); Dahlberg, E D [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota (United States); Checkelsky, J [Physics Department, Harvey Mudd College (United States); Eckert, J [Physics Department, Harvey Mudd College (United States)

2007-08-08

The transition metal (TM) chalcogenides of the form TMX{sub 2} (X = S or Se) have been studied for decades due to their interesting electronic and magnetic properties such as metamagnetism and metal-insulator transitions. In particular, the Co{sub 1-x}Fe{sub x}S{sub 2} alloys were the subject of investigation in the 1970s due to general interest in itinerant ferromagnetism. In recent years (2000-present) it has been shown, both by electronic structure calculations and detailed experimental investigations, that Co{sub 1-x}Fe{sub x}S{sub 2} is a model system for the investigation of highly spin polarized ferromagnetism. The radically different electronic properties of the two endpoint compounds (CoS{sub 2} is a narrow bandwidth ferromagnetic metal, while FeS{sub 2} is a diamagnetic semiconductor), in a system forming a substitutional solid solution allows for composition control of the Fermi level relative to the spin split bands, and therefore composition-controlled conduction electron spin polarization. In essence, the recent work has shown that the concept of 'band engineering' can be applied to half-metallic ferromagnets and that high spin polarization can be deliberately engineered. Experiments reveal tunability in both sign and magnitude of the spin polarization at the Fermi level, with maximum values obtained to date of 85% at low temperatures. In this paper we review the properties of Co{sub 1-x}Fe{sub x}S{sub 2} alloys, with an emphasis on properties of relevance to half-metallicity. Crystal structure, electronic structure, synthesis, magnetic properties, transport properties, direct probes of the spin polarization, and measurements of the total density of states at the Fermi level are all discussed. We conclude with a discussion of the factors that influence, or even limit, the spin polarization, along with a discussion of opportunities and problems for future investigation, particularly with regard to fundamental studies of spintronic devices.

Biodiversity and Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

1997-01-01

Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

Polarization fluctuation behavior of lanthanum substituted Bi{sub 4}Ti{sub 3}O{sub 12} thin films

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhong, Ni; Xiang, Ping-Hua, E-mail: phxiang@ee.ecnu.edu.cn; Zhang, Yuan-Yuan; Wu, Xing; Tang, Xiao-Dong; Yang, Ping-Xiong; Duan, Chun-Gang; Chu, Jun-Hao [Key Laboratory of Polar Materials and Devices, Ministry of Education, Department of Electronic Engineering, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241 (China)

2015-09-14

Polarization fluctuation behavior of lanthanum substituted Bi{sub 4}Ti{sub 3}O{sub 12} (Bi{sub 4−x}La{sub x}Ti{sub 3}O{sub 12}, BLT) ferroelectric thin films has been examined. Remnant polarization exhibits an initial increase (P{sub up}, 1–10{sup 6} cycles) and a subsequent decrease (P{sub down}, 10{sup 6}–10{sup 9} cycles) with switching cycles, whereas the dielectric constant exhibits a continuous decrease. By careful investigations on the effect of switching frequency and annealing atmosphere on the polarization fluctuation characteristics, we propose that this polarization fluctuation characteristic of BLT films is attributed to the competition between domain pinning and passive layer growing effect, due to the redistribution of oxygen vacancy related defect under external applied field. P{sub up} behavior is dominated by the unpinning of pinned domain, while P{sub down} behavior is dominated by the reduction of applied field on BLT bulk layer, due to the growing of the passive layer between BLT and Pt electrode. By assuming the dielectric constant and initial thickness of passive layer, the passive layer was estimated to be about 2–5 times thicker than the initial state after 10{sup 9} cycling.

In-plane polarization dependence of (Bi,Pb){sub 2}Sr{sub 2}CaCu{sub 2}O{sub 8+δ} single crystals studied by X-ray absorption spectroscopy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ghafari, A., E-mail: ghafari@physik.hu-berlin.de [Institute of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Newtonstr., 15, D-12489 Berlin (Germany); Elettra Sincrotrone Trieste, Strada Statale 14 km 163.5, I-34149 Trieste (Italy); Ariffin, A.K. [Institute of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Newtonstr., 15, D-12489 Berlin (Germany); Department of Physics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, 35900 Tanjong Malim (Malaysia); Janowitz, C., E-mail: christoph.janowitz@physik.hu-berlin.de [Institute of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Newtonstr., 15, D-12489 Berlin (Germany); Dwelk, H.; Krapf, A.; Manzke, R. [Institute of Physics, Humboldt University of Berlin, Newtonstr., 15, D-12489 Berlin (Germany)

2014-06-15

The effects of in-plane polarization change on the determination of the hole density of weakly under-doped (Bi, Pb)-2212 single crystals has been studied by x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). The XAS signal at the CuL{sub 3} edge (925–940 eV) and O K edge (525 eV to 539 eV) were recorded under continuous rotation of the CuO{sub 2} plane from 0° to 180° with a minimum increment of 1.8°, yielding experimentally an in-plane polarization dependence for the absorption signals at the respective threshold. From that the in-plane angular dependence of the hole density (n{sub H}(φ)) could be determined. Fermi's golden rule was then used for the evaluation of the in-plane polarization dependence showing the expected polarization independence in disaccord to the experimental observations. Possible scenarios to solve this issue are discussed. Our results propose that polarization dependence could be due to inhomogeneous distribution of holes in the CuO{sub 2} planes which is also supported by models. Second, the role of out of plane orbitals has to be taken into account for interpretation.

DETECTING CHANGING POLARIZATION STRUCTURES IN SAGITTARIUS A* WITH HIGH FREQUENCY VLBI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fish, Vincent L; Doeleman, Sheperd S; Rogers, Alan E. E. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Haystack Observatory, Route 40, Westford, MA 01886 (United States); Broderick, Avery E [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada); Loeb, Abraham [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard University, Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2009-12-01

Sagittarius A* is the source of near infrared, X-ray, radio, and (sub)millimeter emission associated with the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center. In the submillimeter regime, Sgr A* exhibits time-variable linear polarization on timescales corresponding to <10 Schwarzschild radii of the presumed 4 x 10{sup 6} M {sub sun} black hole. In previous work, we demonstrated the potential for total-intensity (sub)millimeter-wavelength very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) to detect time-variable-and periodic-source structure changes in the Sgr A* black hole system using nonimaging analyses. Here, we extend this work to include full polarimetric VLBI observations. We simulate full-polarization (sub)millimeter VLBI data of Sgr A* using a hot spot model that is embedded within an accretion disk, with emphasis on nonimaging polarimetric data products that are robust against calibration errors. Although the source-integrated linear polarization fraction in the models is typically only a few percent, the linear polarization fraction on small angular scales can be much higher, enabling the detection of changes in the polarimetric structure of Sgr A* on a wide variety of baselines. The shortest baselines track the source-integrated linear polarization fraction, while longer baselines are sensitive to polarization substructures that are beam-diluted by connected-element interferometry. The detection of periodic variability in source polarization should not be significantly affected even if instrumental polarization terms cannot be calibrated out. As more antennas are included in the (sub)millimeter-VLBI array, observations with full polarization will provide important new diagnostics to help disentangle intrinsic source polarization from Faraday rotation effects in the accretion and outflow region close to the black hole event horizon.

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice as a Microcosm of Global Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2014-01-01

Polar sea ice is a key element of the climate system and has now been monitored through satellite observations for over three and a half decades. The satellite observations reveal considerable information about polar ice and its changes since the late 1970s, including a prominent downward trend in Arctic sea ice coverage and a much lesser upward trend in Antarctic sea ice coverage, illustrative of the important fact that climate change entails spatial contrasts. The decreasing ice coverage in the Arctic corresponds well with contemporaneous Arctic warming and exhibits particularly large decreases in the summers of 2007 and 2012, influenced by both preconditioning and atmospheric conditions. The increasing ice coverage in the Antarctic is not as readily explained, but spatial differences in the Antarctic trends suggest a possible connection with atmospheric circulation changes that have perhaps been influenced by the Antarctic ozone hole. The changes in the polar ice covers and the issues surrounding those changes have many commonalities with broader climate changes and their surrounding issues, allowing the sea ice changes to be viewed in some important ways as a microcosm of global climate change.

Novel Tools for Climate Change Learning and Responding in Earth Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Elena; Brunacini, Jessica; Pfirman, Stephanie

2015-04-01

Several innovative, polar focused activities and tools including a polar hub website (http://thepolarhub.org) have been developed for use in formal and informal earth science or STEM education by the Polar Learning and Responding (PoLAR) Climate Change Education Partnership (consisting of climate scientists, experts in the learning sciences and education practitioners). In seeking to inform understanding of and response to climate change, these tools and activities range from increasing awareness to informing decisions about climate change, from being used in classrooms (by undergraduate students as well as by pre-college students or by teachers taking online climate graduate courses) to being used in the public arena (by stakeholders, community members and the general public), and from using low technology (card games such as EcoChains- Arctic Crisis, a food web game or SMARTIC - Strategic Management of Resources in Times of Change, an Arctic marine spatial planning game) to high technology (Greenify Network - a mobile real world action game that fosters sustainability and allows players to meaningfully address climate change in their daily lives, or the Polar Explorer Data Visualization Tablet App that allows individuals to explore data collected by scientists and presented for the everyday user through interactive maps and visualizations, to ask questions and go on an individualized tour of polar regions and their connections to the rest of the world). Games are useful tools in integrative and applied learning, in gaining practical and intellectual skills, and in systems thinking. Also, as part of the PoLAR Partnership, a Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was collaboratively developed and conducted, that can be used as a model for engaging and representing indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools and solutions building. Future camps are planned with Alaska Native Elders, educators including classroom

Charged-Higgs on R{sub D}{sup {sub (}{sub *}{sub )}}, τ polarization, and FBA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Chuan-Hung [National Cheng-Kung University, Department of Physics, Tainan (China); Nomura, Takaaki [KIAS, School of Physics, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-09-15

We study the influence of a charged-Higgs on the excess of branching fraction ratio, R{sub M} = BR(anti B → Mτ anti ν{sub τ})/BR(anti B → Ml anti ν{sub l}) (M = D, D*), in a generic two-Higgs-doublet model. In order to investigate the lepton polarization, the detailed decay amplitudes with lepton helicity are given. When the charged-Higgs is used to resolve excesses, it is found that two independent Yukawa couplings are needed to explain the R{sub D} and R{sub D*} anomalies. We show that when the upper limit of BR(B{sub c} → τ anti ν{sub τ}) < 30% is included, R{sub D} can be significantly enhanced while R{sub D*} < 0.27. With the BR(B{sub c} → τ anti ν{sub τ}) constraint, we find that the τ-lepton polarizations can be still affected by the charged-Higgs effects, where the standard model (SM) predictions are obtained: P{sup τ}{sub D} ∼ 0.324 and P{sup τ}{sub D*} ∼ -0.500, and they can be enhanced to be P{sup τ}{sub D} ∼ 0.5 and P{sup τ}{sub D*} ∼ -0.41 by the charged-Higgs. The integrated lepton forward-backward asymmetry (FBA) is also studied, where the SM result is anti A{sup D{sup ({sup *{sup ),τ}{sub FB}}}} ∼ -0.359(0.064), and they can be enhanced (decreased) to be anti A{sup D{sup ({sup *{sup ),τ}{sub FB}}}} ∼ -0.33(0.02). (orig.)

Climate, atmosphere, and volatile inventory evolution: polar processes, climate records, volatile inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollack, J.B.

1988-01-01

Climate change on Mars was driven by long term changes in the solar luminosity, variations in the partitioning of volatiles between the atmosphere and near-surface reservoirs, and astronomical variations in axial and orbital properties. There are important parallels between these drives for Mars and comparable ones for Earth. In the early history of the solar system, the Sun's luminosity was 25 to 30 percent lower than its current value. It is suggested that an early benign climate on Earth was due to the presence of much more carbon dioxide in its atmosphere at these early times than currently resides there. Such a partitioning of carbon dioxide, at the expense of the carbonate rock reservoir, may have resulted from a more vigorous tectonic and volcanic style at early times. Such a line of reasoning may imply that much more carbon dioxide was present in the Martian atmosphere during the planet's early history than resides there today. It is now widely recognized that astronomical variations of the Earth's axial and orbital characteristics have played a dominant role in causing the succession of glacial and interglacial periods characterizing the last several million years. The magnitude of the axial and eccentricity variations are much larger for Mars than for Earth. Such changes on Mars could result in sizeable variations in atmospheric pressure, dust storm activity, and the stability of perennial carbon dioxide and water ice polar caps. These quasi-periodic climate changes occur on periods of 100,000 to 1,000,000 years and may be recorded in the sedimentary layers of the polar layered terrain

What Is Climate Change? (Environmental Health Student Portal)

Science.gov (United States)

... of the solution Take Aim at Climate Change (Passport to Knowledge) - Interactive website, including a video and topics on climate change, polar bears, glaciers, and carbon dioxide. Cool School Challenge (Pugent Sound Clean Air Agency) - Engages students and teachers in practical strategies to ...

Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patricola, C.M. [Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY (United States); Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Cook, K.H. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

2011-09-15

A regional climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, is forced with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} and anomalous SSTs and lateral boundary conditions derived from nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to produce an ensemble set of nine future climate simulations for northern Africa at the end of the twenty-first century. A well validated control simulation, agreement among ensemble members, and a physical understanding of the future climate change enhance confidence in the predictions. The regional model ensembles produce consistent precipitation projections over much of northern tropical Africa. A moisture budget analysis is used to identify the circulation changes that support future precipitation anomalies. The projected midsummer drought over the Guinean Coast region is related partly to weakened monsoon flow. Since the rainfall maximum demonstrates a southward bias in the control simulation in July-August, this may be indicative of future summer drying over the Sahel. Wetter conditions in late summer over the Sahel are associated with enhanced moisture transport by the West African westerly jet, a strengthening of the jet itself, and moisture transport from the Mediterranean. Severe drought in East Africa during August and September is accompanied by a weakened Indian monsoon and Somali jet. Simulations with projected and idealized SST forcing suggest that overall SST warming in part supports this regional model ensemble agreement, although changes in SST gradients are important over West Africa in spring and fall. Simulations which isolate the role of individual climate forcings suggest that the spatial distribution of the rainfall predictions is controlled by the anomalous SST and lateral boundary conditions, while CO{sub 2} forcing within the regional model domain plays an important secondary role and generally produces wetter conditions. (orig.)

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

What About Sea Ice? People, animals, and climate change in the polar regions: An online resource for the International Polar Year and beyond

Science.gov (United States)

Renfrow, S.; Meier, W. N.; Wolfe, J.; Scott, D.; Leon, A.; Weaver, R.

2005-12-01

Decreasing Arctic sea ice has been one of the most noticeable changes on Earth over the past quarter-century. The years 2002 through 2005 have had much lower summer sea ice extents than the long-term (1979-2000). Reduced sea ice extent has a direct impact on Arctic wildlife and people, as well as ramifications for regional and global climate. Students, educators, and the general public want and need to have a better understanding of sea ice. Most of us are unfamiliar with sea ice: what it is, where it occurs, and how it affects global climate. The upcoming International Polar Year will provide an opportunity for the public to learn about sea ice. Here, we provide an overview of sea ice, the changes that the sea ice is undergoing, and information about the relation between sea ice and climate. The information presented here is condensed from the National Snow and Ice Data Center's new 'All About Sea Ice' Web site (http://www.nsidc.org/seaice/), a comprehensive resource of information for sea ice.

Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

1994-01-01

This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowland, F. S.

2010-01-01

The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

1993-12-31

Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

Do projections from bioclimatic envelope models and climate change metrics match?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia, Raquel A.; Cabeza, Mar; Altwegg, Res

2016-01-01

as indicators of the exposure of species to climate change. Here, we investigate whether these two approaches provide qualitatively similar indications about where biodiversity is potentially most exposed to climate change. Location: Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We compared a range of climate change metrics...... for sub-Saharan Africa with ensembles of bioclimatic envelope models for 2723 species of amphibians, snakes, mammals and birds. For each taxonomic group, we performed three comparisons between the two approaches: (1) is projected change in local climatic suitability (models) greater in grid cells...... between the two approaches was found for all taxonomic groups, although it was stronger for species with a narrower climatic envelope breadth. Main conclusions: For sub-Saharan African vertebrates, projected patterns of exposure to climate change given by climate change metrics alone were qualitatively...

DETECTING CHANGING POLARIZATION STRUCTURES IN SAGITTARIUS A* WITH HIGH FREQUENCY VLBI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Rogers, Alan E. E.; Broderick, Avery E.; Loeb, Abraham

2009-01-01

Sagittarius A* is the source of near infrared, X-ray, radio, and (sub)millimeter emission associated with the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center. In the submillimeter regime, Sgr A* exhibits time-variable linear polarization on timescales corresponding to 6 M sun black hole. In previous work, we demonstrated the potential for total-intensity (sub)millimeter-wavelength very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) to detect time-variable-and periodic-source structure changes in the Sgr A* black hole system using nonimaging analyses. Here, we extend this work to include full polarimetric VLBI observations. We simulate full-polarization (sub)millimeter VLBI data of Sgr A* using a hot spot model that is embedded within an accretion disk, with emphasis on nonimaging polarimetric data products that are robust against calibration errors. Although the source-integrated linear polarization fraction in the models is typically only a few percent, the linear polarization fraction on small angular scales can be much higher, enabling the detection of changes in the polarimetric structure of Sgr A* on a wide variety of baselines. The shortest baselines track the source-integrated linear polarization fraction, while longer baselines are sensitive to polarization substructures that are beam-diluted by connected-element interferometry. The detection of periodic variability in source polarization should not be significantly affected even if instrumental polarization terms cannot be calibrated out. As more antennas are included in the (sub)millimeter-VLBI array, observations with full polarization will provide important new diagnostics to help disentangle intrinsic source polarization from Faraday rotation effects in the accretion and outflow region close to the black hole event horizon.

Signs of climate change in Nordic nature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Maria; Jensen, Trine Susanne; Normander, Bo

on population size and range of the polar bear, for example, are scarce, whereas data on the pollen season are extensive. Each indicator is evaluated using a number of quality criteria, including sensitivity to climate change, policy relevance and methodology. Although the indicator framework presented here has......Not only is the Earth's climate changing, our natural world is also being affected by the impact of rising temperatures and changes in climatic conditions. In order to track climate-related changes in Nordic ecosystems, we have identified a number of climate change sensitive indicators. We present...... a catalogue of 14 indicator-based signs that demonstrate the impact of climate change on terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in the different bio-geographical zones of the Nordic region. The indicators have been identified using a systematic and quality, criteria based approach to discern and select...

Past climate changes derived from isotope measurements in polar ice cores

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beer, J.; Muscheler, R.; Wagner, G.; Kubik, P.K.

2002-01-01

Measurements of stable and radioactive isotopes in polar ice cores provide a wealth of information on the climate conditions of the past. Stable isotopes (δ 18 O, δD) reflect mainly the temperature, whereas δ 18 O of oxygen in air bubbles reveals predominantly the global ice volume and the biospheric activity. Cosmic ray produced radioisotopes (cosmogenic nuclides) such as 10 Be and 36 Cl record information on the solar variability and possibly also on the solar irradiance. If the flux of a cosmogenic nuclide into the ice is known the accumulation rate can be derived from the measured concentration. The comparison of 10 Be from ice with 14 C from tree rings allows deciding whether observed 14 C variations are caused by production or system effects. Finally, isotope measurements are very useful for establishing and improving time scales. The 10 Be/ 36 Cl ratio changes with an apparent half-life of 376,000 years and is therefore well suited to date old ice. Significant abrupt changes in the records of 10 Be, 36 Cl from ice and of δ 18 O from atmospheric oxygen representing global signals can be used to synchronize ice and sediment cores. (author)

Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

Science.gov (United States)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2009-12-01

In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

Polarity of translation boundaries in antiferroelectric PbZrO{sub 3}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wei, Xian-Kui, E-mail: xiankui.wei@epfl.ch [Ceramics Laboratory, EPFL–Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne 1015 (Switzerland); Peter Grünberg Institute and Ernst Ruska Center for Microscopy and Spectroscopy with Electrons, Research Center Jülich, 52425 Jülich (Germany); Jia, Chun-Lin [Peter Grünberg Institute and Ernst Ruska Center for Microscopy and Spectroscopy with Electrons, Research Center Jülich, 52425 Jülich (Germany); International Centre of Dielectric Research, The School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 (China); Roleder, Krystian [Institute of Physics, University of Silesia, Katowice 40007 (Poland); Setter, Nava [Ceramics Laboratory, EPFL–Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne 1015 (Switzerland)

2015-02-15

Graphical abstract: Strain-free rigid model and aberration-corrected transmission electron microscopes are used to investigate the polarity of translation boundaries in antiferroelectric PbZrO{sub 3}. - Highlights: • Domain boundaries in antiferroelectric PbZrO{sub 3} show polar and antipolar property. • The antiphase boundary can split into “sub-domains”. • Polarization reversal possibly exists inside the translation boundaries. • Thermal treatment can alter morphology and density of the translation boundaries. - Abstract: The polarity of translation boundaries (TBs) in antiferroelectric PbZrO{sub 3} is investigated. We show that previous experimentally reported polar property of R{sub III-1} type TB can be well approximated by a strain-free rigid model. Based on this, the modeling investigation suggests that there are two additional polar TBs, three antipolar-like TBs and one antipolar antiphase boundary. High-resolution scanning-transmission-electron-microscopy study reveals that the straight R{sub III-1} type TB can split into “sub-domains” with possible polarization reversal, suggesting the occurrence of ferroic orders at the TBs. In addition, dependence of morphology and density of the TBs on thermal treatments is discussed according to our results.

Ecological responses to recent climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walther, Gian-Reto [Hannover Univ., Inst. of Geobotany, Hannover (Germany); Post, Eric [Pennsylvania State Univ., Dept. of Biology, University Park, PA (United States); Convey, Peter [British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Menzel, Annette [Technical Univ. Munich, Dept. of Ecology, Freising (Germany); Parmesan, Camille [Texas Univ., Patterson Labs., Integrative Biology Dept., Austin, TX (United States); Beebee, Trevor J.C. [Sussex Univ., School of Biological Sciences, Brighton (United Kingdom); Fromentin, Jean-Marc [IFREMER, Centre Halieutique Mediterraneen et Tropical, Sete, 34 (France); Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove [Queensland Univ., Centre for Marine Studies, St Lucia, QLD (Australia); Bairlein, Franz [Institute for Avian Research ' Vogelwarte Helgoland' , Wilhelmshaven (Germany)

2002-03-28

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organisational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible. (Author)

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2016-12-01

Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

Price, carbon and generation profiles: how partisan differences make the future of climate change uncertain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sautter, John A.; Sautter, Christopher A.

2010-03-15

America is very much a divided nation when it comes to politics. That polarization is reflected in the environmental and energy realities currently at play in many states, creating a remarkable divide between more conservative Red States and more liberal Blue States when it comes to the amount of CO{sub 2} emitted into the atmosphere and the price of electricity. These differences pose an enormous obstacle in passing climate change legislation. (author)

Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production

Assessment of Climate Change and Agricultural Land Use Change on Streamflow Input to Devils Lake: A Case Study of the Mauvais Coulee Sub-basin

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, C.; Todhunter, P. E.

2017-12-01

Since 1993, Devils Lake in North Dakota has experienced a prolonged rise in lake level and flooding of the lake's neighboring areas within the closed basin system. Understanding the relative contribution of climate change and land use change is needed to explain the historical rise in lake level, and to evaluate the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change upon future lake conditions and management. Four methodologies were considered to examine the relative contribution of climatic and human landscape drivers to streamflow variations: statistical, ecohydrologic, physically-based modeling, and elasticity of streamflow; for this study, ecohydrologic and climate elasticity were selected. Agricultural statistics determined that Towner and Ramsey counties underwent a crop conversion from small grains to row crops within the last 30 years. Through the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), a 10 meter resolution DEM confirmed the presence of innumerable wetland depressions within the non-contributing area of the Mauvais Coulee Sub-basin. Although the ecohydrologic and climate elasticity methodologies are the most commonly used in literature, they make assumptions that are not applicable to basin conditions. A modified and more informed approach to the use of these methods was applied to account for these unique sub-basin characteristics. Ultimately, hydroclimatic variability was determined as the largest driver to streamflow variation in Mauvais Coulee and Devils Lake.

Ultimate environmental dilemma: is man changing the climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

White, R

1982-01-01

A discussion of the effect that carbon dioxide buildup in the earth's atmosphere may have on the world's climate is presented. Observations taken at Mauna Loa in Hawaii reveal a consistent, year-by-year increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections on the future use of fossil fuels indicate that if the climate system behaves as it has in past decades, a doubling of the amount of CO/sub 2/ around the middle of the next century can be expected. The effects of a warming trend on the polar ice caps are discussed. (KRM)

Impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes Basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cohen, S J

1986-01-01

Scenarios of CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change, based on models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), were used to estimate future changes in water supply in the Great Lakes Basin. The major components of annual Net Basin Supply, surface runoff and lake evaporation, were estimated using the Thornthwaite water balance model and the mass transfer approach, respectively. Two scenarios were derived from each climatic change model, one based on present normal winds, the other assuming reduced wind speeds. A third scenario was derived from GFDL, using wind speeds generated by the GFDL model. Results varied from a decrease in Net Basin Supply of 28.9% for GISS-normal winds, to a decrease of 11.7% for GFDL-reduced wind speeds. All five scenarios projected decreases. These differences in projection will have to be considered when performing climate impact studies, since economic activities affected by lake levels would probably experience different impacts under these scenarios.

Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Capron

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka and characterized by short Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events. Recent and new results obtained on the EPICA and NorthGRIP ice cores now precisely describe the rapid variations of Antarctic and Greenland temperature during MIS 5 (73.5–123 ka, a time period corresponding to relatively high sea level. The results display a succession of abrupt events associated with long Greenland InterStadial phases (GIS enabling us to highlight a sub-millennial scale climatic variability depicted by (i short-lived and abrupt warming events preceding some GIS (precursor-type events and (ii abrupt warming events at the end of some GIS (rebound-type events. The occurrence of these sub-millennial scale events is suggested to be driven by the insolation at high northern latitudes together with the internal forcing of ice sheets. Thanks to a recent NorthGRIP-EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML common timescale over MIS 5, the bipolar sequence of climatic events can be established at millennial to sub-millennial timescale. This shows that for extraordinary long stadial durations the accompanying Antarctic warming amplitude cannot be described by a simple linear relationship between the two as expected from the bipolar seesaw concept. We also show that when ice sheets are extensive, Antarctica does not necessarily warm during the whole GS as the thermal bipolar seesaw model would predict, questioning the Greenland ice core temperature records as a proxy for AMOC changes throughout the glacial period.

Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Webb; Schuster, Stephan C.; Welch, Andreanna J.; Ratan, Aakrosh; Bedoya-Reina, Oscar C.; Zhao, Fangqing; Kim, Hie Lim; Burhans, Richard C.; Drautz, Daniela I.; Wittekindt, Nicola E.; Tomsho, Lynn P.; Ibarra-Laclette, Enrique; Herrera-Estrella, Luis; Peacock, Elizabeth; Farley, Sean; Sage, George K.; Rode, Karyn D.; Obbard, Martyn E.; Montiel, Rafael; Bachmann, Lutz; Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Aars, Jon; Mailund, Thomas; Wiig, Øystein; Talbot, Sandra L.; Lindqvist, Charlotte

2012-01-01

Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5–10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4–5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture and demographic footprints of past climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Webb; Schuster, Stephan C; Welch, Andreanna J; Ratan, Aakrosh; Bedoya-Reina, Oscar C; Zhao, Fangqing; Kim, Hie Lim; Burhans, Richard C; Drautz, Daniela I; Wittekindt, Nicola E; Tomsho, Lynn P; Ibarra-Laclette, Enrique; Herrera-Estrella, Luis; Peacock, Elizabeth; Farley, Sean; Sage, George K; Rode, Karyn; Obbard, Martyn; Montiel, Rafael; Bachmann, Lutz; Ingólfsson, Olafur; Aars, Jon; Mailund, Thomas; Wiig, Oystein; Talbot, Sandra L; Lindqvist, Charlotte

2012-09-04

Polar bears (PBs) are superbly adapted to the extreme Arctic environment and have become emblematic of the threat to biodiversity from global climate change. Their divergence from the lower-latitude brown bear provides a textbook example of rapid evolution of distinct phenotypes. However, limited mitochondrial and nuclear DNA evidence conflicts in the timing of PB origin as well as placement of the species within versus sister to the brown bear lineage. We gathered extensive genomic sequence data from contemporary polar, brown, and American black bear samples, in addition to a 130,000- to 110,000-y old PB, to examine this problem from a genome-wide perspective. Nuclear DNA markers reflect a species tree consistent with expectation, showing polar and brown bears to be sister species. However, for the enigmatic brown bears native to Alaska's Alexander Archipelago, we estimate that not only their mitochondrial genome, but also 5-10% of their nuclear genome, is most closely related to PBs, indicating ancient admixture between the two species. Explicit admixture analyses are consistent with ancient splits among PBs, brown bears and black bears that were later followed by occasional admixture. We also provide paleodemographic estimates that suggest bear evolution has tracked key climate events, and that PB in particular experienced a prolonged and dramatic decline in its effective population size during the last ca. 500,000 years. We demonstrate that brown bears and PBs have had sufficiently independent evolutionary histories over the last 4-5 million years to leave imprints in the PB nuclear genome that likely are associated with ecological adaptation to the Arctic environment.

The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

U. Port

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO<sub>2sub> emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO<sub>2sub> concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO<sub>2sub> concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO<sub>2sub> concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

2018-01-01

Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

Debunking Climate Change Myths in the College Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Bedford, D. P.

2012-12-01

Research in sociology (e.g. Hamilton, 2011) and social psychology (e.g. Kahan et al., 2012) suggests that there is no basis to an assumption common among educators that higher education levels lead to more rational decision making. Indeed, there is growing evidence that views on climate change, for just one significant example, become more polarized at higher education levels, rather than converging on the scientific consensus. Some research points to improved facility at filtering information according to preconceptions at higher education levels as a possible explanation for this phenomenon. Misinformation about subjects that are perceived to be contentious, such as anthropogenic climate change, is therefore potentially easily accepted despite-- or even because of-- higher levels of education. Thus, explicitly addressing misinformation about climate change may be an important strategy for use in the classroom. Fortunately, misinformation provides a valuable opportunity to turn a challenging situation to educational advantage and, in effect, make lemonade out of lemons. This presentation provides a case study of efforts explicitly to debunk climate change myths in the college classroom. The approach outlined here utilizes material on the psychology of the acceptance of misinformation for the popular audience, combined with examples of misinformation itself. Qualitative assessment of the effectiveness of these efforts is also presented. Hamilton, L. 2011. Education, political and opinions about climate change: evidence for interaction effects. Climatic Change vol. 104 no. 2, 231-242.. Kahan, D.M., E. Peters, M. Wittlin, P. Slovic, L. Larrimore Ouellette, D. Braman and G. Mandel. 2012. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

Sub-arctic hydrology and climate change : a case study of the Tana River Basin in Northern Fennoscandia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dankers, Rutger

2002-01-01

The most significant changes in climate, due to the well-known enhanced greenhouse effect, are generally expected to occur at northern high latitudes. Sub-arctic environments, that are dominated by the presence of a seasonal snow cover, may therefore be particularly sensitive to global warming. The

Polar marine ecosystems: major threats and future change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clarke, A. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Harris, C.M. [Environmental Research and Assessment, Grantchester (United Kingdom)

2003-07-01

This review of polar marine ecosystems covers both the Arctic and Antarctic, identifying the major threats and, where possible, predicting their possible state(s) in 2025. Although the two polar regions are similar in their extreme photoperiod, low temperatures, and in being heavily influenced by snow and ice, in almost all other respects they are very different. The Arctic Ocean is a basin surrounded by continental landmasses close to, and influenced by, large populations and industrial activities. In contrast, the Southern Ocean is contiguous with all the other great oceans and surrounds a single land mass; Antarctica is remote from major centres of population and sources of pollution. Marine environments in both Polar Regions have been highly disturbed by fishing activity, but, in terms of pollution, some areas remain among the most pristine in the world. There are, however, both local and global pressures. Over the 2025 time horizon, the greatest concern for the Arctic is probably the ecological implications of climate change, particularly insofar as sea ice extent and duration are likely to be affected. Such changes are not expected to be as pronounced in the Southern Ocean over this time period, and concerns are related more to direct threats from harvesting of marine living resources, and the ability to manage these fisheries sustainably. In both Polar Regions, the capacity of marine ecosystems to withstand the cumulative impact of a number of pressures, including climate change, pollution and overexploitation, acting synergistically is of greatest concern. (author)

Adapting to the Changing Climate: An Assessment of Local Health Department Preparations for Climate Change-Related Health Threats, 2008-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Roser-Renouf, Connie; Maibach, Edward W; Li, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Climate change poses a major public health threat. A survey of U.S. local health department directors in 2008 found widespread recognition of the threat, but limited adaptive capacity, due to perceived lack of expertise and other resources. We assessed changes between 2008 and 2012 in local public health departments' preparedness for the public health threats of climate change, in light of increasing national polarization on the issue, and widespread funding cutbacks for public health. A geographically representative online survey of directors of local public health departments was conducted in 2011-2012 (N = 174; response rate = 50%), and compared to the 2008 telephone survey results (N = 133; response rate = 61%). Significant polarization had occurred: more respondents in 2012 were certain that the threat of local climate change impacts does/does not exist, and fewer were unsure. Roughly 10% said it is not a threat, compared to 1% in 2008. Adaptation capacity decreased in several areas: perceived departmental expertise in climate change risk assessment; departmental prioritization of adaptation; and the number of adaptation-related programs and services departments provided. In 2008, directors' perceptions of local impacts predicted the number of adaptation-related programs and services their departments offered, but in 2012, funding predicted programming and directors' impact perceptions did not. This suggests that budgets were constraining directors' ability to respond to local climate change-related health threats. Results also suggest that departmental expertise may mitigate funding constraints. Strategies for overcoming these obstacles to local public health departments' preparations for climate change are discussed.

Impact of climate change and El Niño episodes on droughts in sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Gizaw, Mesgana Seyoum; Gan, Thian Yew

2017-07-01

Various drought prone regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSAF) have been affected by severe droughts in recent decades and centuries, which had caused catastrophic humanitarian crisis. In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index was used to analyse changes in drought characteristics of SSAF during 1971-2000 and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate projections of selected GCMs (Global Climate Models) for the 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s) periods. The results show that most areas in South Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) will shift to a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s. However, some areas in Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to be relatively wetter in the 2050 and 2080s whereas very little change is projected in the average drought severity of Central Africa (CA). The frequency of short (6-12 months) and long (above 12 months) drought events also increased on average by 5 %. However, a 1-6 % decrease in the average duration of long drought periods was projected during the 2050 and 2080s likely due to the increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in SSAF. An increase in the frequency of El Niño episodes under a warmer twentyfirst century climate is also expected to increase the drought prone regions of WA, SA and particularly GHA while CA still remains virtually unaffected. Overall, the results suggest that SSAF will experience a drier climate in the 2050 and 2080s with an increase in drought prone areas in the four corners of the sub-continent.

Five-City Network to Pioneer Climate Change Adaptation in sub ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Local governments and coastal cities in Southern Africa face a serious threat associated with climate change. Current climate change projections indicate that temperature increases, rising sea levels (permanent and temporary), changes in precipitation, and extreme events (floods, droughts, high winds) are likely to occur.

Electron and ion angular distributions in resonant dissociative photoionization of H{sub 2} and D{sub 2} using linearly polarized light

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fernandez, Jorge; MartIn, Fernando [Departamento de Quimica C-9, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, 28049 Madrid (Spain)], E-mail: fernando.martin@uam.es

2009-04-15

We have evaluated fully differential electron angular distributions in H{sub 2} and D{sub 2} dissociative photoionization by using linearly polarized light of 20, 27 and 33 eV. At 20 eV, the distributions exhibit simple p-wave patterns, which is the signature of direct ionization through the X{sup 2}{sigma}{sub g}{sup +}(1s{sigma}{sub g}) channel. At 27 eV, where the Q{sub 1} autoionizing states are populated, we observe a similar pattern, except when the molecule is oriented perpendicularly to the polarization direction and the energy of the ejected electron is small. In contrast, at 33 eV, autoionization from the Q{sub 1} and Q{sub 2} states leads to interferences between the X{sup 2}{sigma}{sub g}{sup +}(1s{sigma}{sub g}) and {sup 2}{sigma}{sub u}{sup +}(2p{sigma}{sub u}) ionization channels that result in a strong asymmetry of the electron angular distributions along the molecular axis. This asymmetry changes rapidly with the energy of the ejected electron. Electron angular distributions integrated over all possible molecular orientations or ion angular distributions integrated over electron emission angle show no reminiscence of the above phenomena, but the corresponding asymmetry parameters dramatically change with electron and ion energies in the region of autoionizing states.

Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Lonnie G.

2010-01-01

Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low…

Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qafoku, Nikolla P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2014-08-01

Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2sub>) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO<sub>2sub> and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO<sub>2sub> or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO<sub>2sub> participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca²+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.

CO sub 2 induced climate change in Ontario: Interdependencies and resource strategies. Changement climatique cause par le CO sub 2 en Ontario: Interdependances et strategies en matiere de ressources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-01-01

A summary is presented of a workshop held in November 1985 which was convened to extend the results of an earlier study on the effect of CO{sub 2}-induced climate change on specific components of the air-water-land biota systems and resource uses in Ontario. The workshop examined the interdependencies of those impact sectors and possible resource and socio-economic strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change. Impacts on such matters as streamflow, water quality, wetlands, snowfall, solar energy, municipal water use, hydroelectric power, tourism and recreation, food production, forest resources, and residential heating requirements were evaluated. It was found that almost all components of the climate system and resource use were affected by CO{sub 2}-induced warming, but the nature and magnitude of these impacts vary considerably across resource sectors and are intricately interdependent. Direct impacts are driven by changes in temperature, precipitation, or cloud cover and affect climate system components, and interdependencies among these sectors cause indirect impacts which affect resource use. For example, changes in temperaure and precipitation affect streamflow which indirectly impacts water use, commercial shipping, and recreation. Strategies to mitigate these effects include both preventive and adjustment strategies, some of which require significant forward planning. The timing and pattern of CO{sub 2}-induced change are important in determining the most likely and desirable strategies. A 5-point framework was developed to evaluate strategies and identify research priorities. Among resource and socioeconomic adjustment strategies, research into the forestry sector is of primary importance.

Public Understanding of Climate Change in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Elke U.; Stern, Paul C.

2011-01-01

This article considers scientific and public understandings of climate change and addresses the following question: Why is it that while scientific evidence has accumulated to document global climate change and scientific opinion has solidified about its existence and causes, U.S. public opinion has not and has instead become more polarized? Our…

Crystal structure of a new polar borate Na{sub 2}Ce{sub 2}[BO{sub 2}(OH)][BO{sub 3}]{sub 2} · H{sub 2}O with isolated boron triangles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Topnikova, A. P.; Belokoneva, E. L., E-mail: elbel@geol.msu.ru; Dimitrova, O. V.; Volkov, A. S. [Moscow State University, Faculty of Geology (Russian Federation)

2016-11-15

Crystals of a new polar borate Na{sub 2}Ce{sub 2}[BO{sub 2}(OH)][BO{sub 3}]{sub 2} · H{sub 2}O were prepared by hydrothermal synthesis. The crystals are orthorhombic, a = 7.2295(7) Å, b = 11.2523(8) Å, c = 5.1285(6) Å, Z = 2, sp. gr. C2mm (Amm2), R = 0.0253. The formula of the compound was derived from the structure determination. The Ce and Na atoms are coordinated by nine and six O atoms, respectively. The Ce position is split, and a small amount of Ce is incorporated into the Na1 site with the isomorphous substitution for Na. The anionic moieties exist as isolated BO{sub 3} and BO{sub 2}(OH) triangles. The planes of the BO{sub 2}(OH) triangles with mm2 symmetry are parallel to the ab plane. The planes of the BO{sub 3} triangles with m symmetry are perpendicular to the ab plane and are rotated in a diagonal way. The splitting of the Ce positions and the polar arrangement of the BO{sub 2}(OH) triangles, water molecules, and Na atoms are observed along the polar a axis. The new structure is most similar to the new borate NaCa{sub 4}[BO{sub 3}]{sub 3} (sp. gr. Ama2), in which triangles of one type are arranged in a polar fashion along the c axis. Weak nonlinear-optical properties of both polar borates are attributed to the quenching of the second-harmonic generation due to the mutually opposite orientation of two-thirds of B triangles in the unit cell.

Five-City Network to Pioneer Climate Change Adaptation in sub ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Current climate change projections indicate that temperature increases, ... This project aims to design a framework for managing increased risk from climate change ... In partnership with UNESCO's Organization for Women in Science for the ...

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Zwart, Sander J.; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades. PMID:29513753

Future changes of the atmospheric composition and the impact of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grewe, V.; Dameris, M.; Hein, R.; Sausen, R. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Steil, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institut), Mainz (Germany). Abt. Chemie der Atmosphaere

1999-05-01

The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition, with respect of NO{sub y} and O{sub 3} is investigated by means of the off-line coupled dynamic-chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO{sub x} and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO{sub x} and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamic parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, i.e. wind speed, diabatic circulation, stratosphere-troposphere-exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate-chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major role for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO{sub y} and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. (orig.)

Effects of ecological and conventional agricultural intensification practices on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa under potential climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Gaiser, Thomas; Liu, Junguo; Wang, Xiuying; Williams, Jimmy; Schulin, Rainer

2014-01-01

Much of Africa is among the world’s regions with lowest yields in staple food crops, and climate change is expected to make it more difficult to catch up in crop production in particular in the long run. Various agronomic measures have been proposed for lifting agricultural production in Africa and to adapt it to climate change. Here, we present a projection of potential climate change impacts on maize yields under different intensification options in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using an agronomic model, GIS-based EPIC (GEPIC). Fallow and nutrient management options taken into account are (a) conventional intensification with high mineral N supply and a bare fallow, (b) moderate mineral N supply and cowpea rotation, and (c) moderate mineral N supply and rotation with a fast growing N fixing tree Sesbania sesban. The simulations suggest that until the 2040s rotation with Sesbania will lead to an increase in yields due to increasing N supply besides improving water infiltration and soils’ water holding capacity. Intensive cultivation with a bare fallow or an herbaceous crop like cowpea in the rotation is predicted to result in lower yields and increased soil erosion during the same time span. However, yields are projected to decrease in all management scenarios towards the end of the century, should temperature increase beyond critical thresholds. The results suggest that the effect of eco-intensification as a sole means of adapting agriculture to climate change is limited in Sub-Saharan Africa. Highly adverse temperatures would rather have to be faced by improved heat tolerant cultivars, while strongly adverse decreases in precipitation would have to be faced by expanding irrigation where feasible. While the evaluation of changes in agro-environmental variables like soil organic carbon, erosion, and soil humidity hints that these are major factors influencing climate change resilience of the field crop, no direct relationship between these factors, crop yields

The many facets of climate change - Conference proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-03-01

This conference day on climate change was organized by the French meteorological society (SMF) at the Ecole Normale Superieure of Paris. This document brings together the available presentations given at the conference. Eight presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Climate change today and tomorrow, the research stakes (Herve Le Treut, IPSL); 2 - Rise of sea levels: estimations and regional variability (Guy Woeppelmann, La Rochelle Univ.); 3 - Polar ice caps and continental cryo-sphere as seen from space (A. Kouraev, F. Remy, E. Berthier, LEGOS); 4 - Impacts of climate change on exploited marine populations: projections and uncertainties (Patrick Lehodey, CLS); 5 - Climate change stakes on agricultural and winery activities in France (Eric Duchene, INRA); 6 - Impacts of climate change on forest trees phenology and their consequences on trees life and survival (Francois Lebourgeois, ENGREF); 7 - Remote-epidemiology: a health-aid in a climate change context (Murielle Lafaye, CNES); 8 - Socio-economic aspects and adaptation: a climate history, for what? (Emmanuel Garnier, Caen Univ.)

Potential forcing of CO{sub 2}, technology and climate changes in maize (Zea mays) and bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) yield in southeast Brazil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Costa, L C; Justino, F; Oliveira, L J C; Sediyama, G C; Lemos, C F [Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Vicosa, PH Rolfs S/N, Vicosa, MG, 36570 000 (Brazil); Ferreira, W P M [Embrapa Milho e Sorgo, Rodovia MG 424, km 45, Caixa Postal 285, CEP 35701-970 Sete Lagoas, MG (Brazil)], E-mail: fjustino@ufv.br

2009-01-15

Based upon sensitivity experiments, this study aims to investigate the impact of increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, climate changes, and ongoing technological advancements on bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and maize (Zea mays) yield. This investigation assumes that the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration evolves according to the A2 scenario. For these analyses we have used climate data as projected by climate simulations conducted with the HadCM3 climate model for both present day and greenhouse warming conditions. The results demonstrated that warming conditions associated with increased greenhouse gases as delivered by the HadCM3 model lead to reductions in the potential productivity of maize and beans for the years 2050 and 2080 by up to 30%. This thermal response is, however, damped by the highly efficient CO{sub 2} fertilization effect which is expected to increase bean productivity as compared to present day conditions. A similar investigation for maize yield revealed a different picture. It has been found that the CO{sub 2} fertilization feedback is much weaker and cannot cancel out the thermal effect. We have found, therefore, that climate changes as simulated to occur in the future are not favorable for increasing the maize yield in southeast Brazil. By the inclusion of the third forcing evaluated, representing technological advancements, it is demonstrated that improvements in the crop system reduce the negative effect associated with warmer climate conditions for both crops. We conclude that appropriate soil and technological management as well as genetic improvements may very likely induce an increase in bean and maize yield despite the unfavorable future climate conditions.

Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Meraner

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10–15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

Satellite Observation Systems for Polar Climate Change Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Comiso, Josefino C.

2012-01-01

The key observational tools for detecting large scale changes of various parameters in the polar regions have been satellite sensors. The sensors include passive and active satellite systems in the visible, infrared and microwave frequencies. The monitoring started with Tiros and Nimbus research satellites series in the 1970s but during the period, not much data was stored digitally because of limitations and cost of the needed storage systems. Continuous global data came about starting with the launch of ocean color, passive microwave, and thermal infrared sensors on board Nimbus-7 and Synthetic Aperture Radar, Radar Altimeter and Scatterometer on board SeaSat satellite both launched in 1978. The Nimbus-7 lasted longer than expected and provided about 9 years of useful data while SeaSat quit working after 3 months but provided very useful data that became the baseline for follow-up systems with similar capabilities. Over the years, many new sensors were launched, some from Japan Aeronautics and Space Agency (JAXA), some from the European Space Agency (ESA) and more recently, from RuSSia, China, Korea, Canada and India. For polar studies, among the most useful sensors has been the passive microwave sensor which provides day/night and almost all weather observation of the surface. The sensor provide sea surface temperature, precipitation, wind, water vapor and sea ice concentration data that have been very useful in monitoring the climate of the region. More than 30 years of such data are now available, starting with the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-7, the Special Scanning Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on board the EOS/ Aqua satellite. The techniques that have been developed to derive geophysical parameters from data provided by these and other sensors and associated instrumental and algorithm errors and validation techniques

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands : enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Boer, Joop; Botzen, W. J Wouter; Terpstra, Teun

2016-01-01

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: Enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Boer, J.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Terpstra, T.

2016-01-01

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk

Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, J. M.; Sztorc, Paul

2015-10-01

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity and estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO<sub>2sub> concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insight on tail events.

Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Zeng

2008-01-01

Full Text Available We present the chemistry-climate model UM<sub>CAM> in which a relatively detailed tropospheric chemical module has been incorporated into the UK Met Office's Unified Model version 4.5. We obtain good agreements between the modelled ozone/nitrogen species and a range of observations including surface ozone measurements, ozone sonde data, and some aircraft campaigns.

Four 2100 calculations assess model responses to projected changes of anthropogenic emissions (SRES A2, climate change (due to doubling CO<sub>2sub>, and idealised climate change-associated changes in biogenic emissions (i.e. 50% increase of isoprene emission and doubling emissions of soil-NO<sub>x>. The global tropospheric ozone burden increases significantly for all the 2100 A2 simulations, with the largest response caused by the increase of anthropogenic emissions. Climate change has diverse impacts on O<sub>3sub> and its budgets through changes in circulation and meteorological variables. Increased water vapour causes a substantial ozone reduction especially in the tropical lower troposphere (>10 ppbv reduction over the tropical ocean. On the other hand, an enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone, which increases by 80% due to doubling CO<sub>2sub>, contributes to ozone increases in the extratropical free troposphere which subsequently propagate to the surface. Projected higher temperatures favour ozone chemical production and PAN decomposition which lead to high surface ozone levels in certain regions. Enhanced convection transports ozone precursors more rapidly out of the boundary layer resulting in an increase of ozone production in the free troposphere. Lightning-produced NO<sub>x> increases by about 22% in the doubled CO<sub>2sub> climate and contributes to ozone production.

The response to the increase of isoprene emissions shows that the change of ozone is largely determined by background NO<sub>x> levels: high

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth

2015-01-01

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas

Detecting Changing Polarization Structures in Sagittarius A* with High Frequency VLBI

Science.gov (United States)

Fish, Vincent L.; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Broderick, Avery E.; Loeb, Abraham; Rogers, Alan E. E.

2009-12-01

Sagittarius A* is the source of near infrared, X-ray, radio, and (sub)millimeter emission associated with the supermassive black hole at the Galactic Center. In the submillimeter regime, Sgr A* exhibits time-variable linear polarization on timescales corresponding to errors. Although the source-integrated linear polarization fraction in the models is typically only a few percent, the linear polarization fraction on small angular scales can be much higher, enabling the detection of changes in the polarimetric structure of Sgr A* on a wide variety of baselines. The shortest baselines track the source-integrated linear polarization fraction, while longer baselines are sensitive to polarization substructures that are beam-diluted by connected-element interferometry. The detection of periodic variability in source polarization should not be significantly affected even if instrumental polarization terms cannot be calibrated out. As more antennas are included in the (sub)millimeter-VLBI array, observations with full polarization will provide important new diagnostics to help disentangle intrinsic source polarization from Faraday rotation effects in the accretion and outflow region close to the black hole event horizon.

Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Karin Barrueto

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Global climate models foresee changes in temperature and precipitation regimes that shift regional climate zones and influence the viability of agricultural market systems. Understanding the influence of climate change on the different sub-sectors and functions of a market system is crucial to increasing the systems’ climate resilience and to ensuring the long-term viability of the sectors. Our research applies a new approach to climate change analysis to better understand the influence of climate change on each step of an agricultural market system—on its core (processing units, storage facilities and sales and support functions (sapling supply, research, insurance and agricultural policy. We use spatial climate analyses to investigate current and projected changes in climate for different regions in Nepal. We then analyse the risks and vulnerabilities of the sub-sectors banana, charcoal, coffee, macadamia, orange, vegetables and walnut. Our results show that temperatures and precipitation levels will change differently depending on the climatic regions, and that climate change elicits different responses from the market functions both between and within each of the different sub-sectors. We conclude that climate-related interventions in market systems must account for each different market function’s specific response and exposure to climate change, in order to select adaptation measures that ensure long-term climate resilience.

High-latitude tree-ring data: Records of climatic change and ecological response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Graumlich, L.J.

1991-01-01

Tree-ring data provide critical information regarding two fundamental questions as to the role of the polar regions in global change: (1) what is the nature of climatic variability? and (2) what is the response of vegetation to climatic variability? Tree-ring-based climatic reconstructions document the variability of the climate system on time scales of years to centuries. Dendroclimatic reconstructions indicate that the climatic episodes defined on the basis of documentary evidence in western Europe (i.e., Medieval Warm Episode, ca. A.D. 1000-1300; Little Ice Age, ca. A.D. 1550-1850) can be observed at some high-latitude sites (ex., Polar Urals). Spatial variation in long-term temperature trends (ex., northern Fennoscandia vs. Polar Urals) demonstrates the importance of regional-scale climatic controls. When collated into global networks, proxy-based climatic reconstructions can be used to test hypotheses as to the relative importance of external forcing vs. internal variation in governing climatic variation. Specifically, such a global network would allow the quantification of the climatic response to various permutations of factors thought to be important in governing decadal- to centennial-scale climatic variation. Tree populations respond to annual- to centennial-scale climatic variation through changes in rates of growth, establishment, and mortality. Tree-ring studies that document multiple aspects of high-latitude treeline dynamics (i.e., the timing of tree establishment, mortality, and changes from krummholz to upright growth) indicate a complex interaction between growth form, population processes, and environmental variability. Such interactions result in varying sensitivities of high-latitude trees to climatic change

The Sub-Polar Gyre Index - a community data set for application in fisheries and environment research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berx, Barbara; Payne, Mark

2017-01-01

Scientific interest in the sub-polar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean has increased in recent years. The sub-polar gyre has contracted and weakened, and changes in circulation pathways have been linked to changes in marine ecosystem productivity. To aid fisheries and environmental scientists, we...... series length are explored but found not to be important factors in terms of the SPG-I's interpretation. Our time series compares well with indices presented previously. The SPG-I time series is freely available online (http://dx.doi.org/10.7489/1806-1), and we invite the community to access, apply...

Response of a tundra ecosystem to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and CO{sub 2}-induced climate change. Annual technical report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oechel, W.C.

1992-04-01

Northern ecosystems contain up to 455 Gt of C in the soil active layer and upper permafrost. The soil carbon in these layers is equivalent to approximately 60% of the carbon currently in the atmosphere as CO{sub 2}. Much of this carbon is stored in the soil as dead organic matter. Its fate is subject to the net effects of global change on the plant and soil systems of northern ecosystems. The arctic alone contains about 60 Gt C, 90% of which is present in the soil active layer and upper permafrost. The arctic is assumed to have been a sink for CO{sub 2} during the historic and recent geologic past. The arctic has the potential to be a very large, long-term source or sink of CO{sub 2} with respect to the atmosphere. In situ experimental manipulations of atmospheric CO{sub 2}, indicated that there is little effect of elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} on leaf level photosynthesis or whole-ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux over the course of weeks to years, respectively. However, there may be longer- term ecosystem responses to elevated CO{sub 2} that could ultimately affect ecosystem CO{sub 2} balance. In addition to atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate may affect net ecosystem carbon balance. Recent results indicate that the arctic has become a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. This change coincides with recent climatic variation in the arctic, and suggests a positive feedback of arctic ecosystems on atmospheric CO{sub 2} and global change. The research proposed in this application has four principal aspects: (A) Long-term response of arctic plants and ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2}; (B) Circumpolar patterns of net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux; (C) In situ controls by temperature and moisture on net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux; (D) Scaling of CO{sub 2} flux from plot, to landscape, to regional scales (In conjunction with research proposed for NSF support).

Climate Proxies: An Inquiry-Based Approach to Discovering Climate Change on Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Wishart, D. N.

2016-12-01

An attractive way to advance climate literacy in higher education is to emphasize its relevance while teaching climate change across the curriculum to science majors and non-science majors. An inquiry-based pedagogical approach was used to engage five groups of students on a "Polar Discovery Project" aimed at interpreting the paleoclimate history of ice cores from Antarctica. Learning objectives and student learning outcomes were clearly defined. Students were assigned several exercises ranging from examination of Antarctic topography to the application of physical and chemical measurements as proxies for climate change. Required materials included base and topographic maps of Antarctica; graph sheets for construction of topographic cross-sectional profiles from profile lines of the Western Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide and East Antarctica; high-resolution photographs of Antarctic ice cores; stratigraphic columns of ice cores; borehole and glaciochemical data (i.e. anions, actions, δ18O, δD etc.); and isotope data on greenhouse gases (CH4, O2, N2) extracted from gas bubbles in ice cores. The methodology was to engage students in (2) construction of topographic profiles; (2) suggest directions for ice flow based on simple physics; (3) formulate decisions on suitable locations for drilling ice cores; (4) visual ice stratigraphy including ice layer counting; (5) observation of any insoluble particles (i.e. meteoritic and volcanic material); (6) analysis of borehole temperature profiles; and (7) the interpretation of several datasets to derive a paleoclimate history of these areas of the continent. The overall goal of the project was to improve the students analytical and quantitative skills; their ability to evaluate relationships between physical and chemical properties in ice cores, and to advance the understanding the impending consequences of climate change while engaging science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). Student learning outcomes

Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

1981-03-21

The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Molly E.

2010-01-01

Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

Plant community responses to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kongstad, J.

2012-07-01

Climate change is expected to affect terrestrial ecosystems across the globe with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. These environmental factors are drivers of many important ecosystem processes, and changes in ecosystem function are therefore expected in the future. The aim of this PhD-thesis was to examine the effects of climate change on aboveground plant growth, plant composition and plant phenology in Danish heathland ecosystems. Two sites were investigated in large-scale field experiments: 1) the CLIMAITE site, 'Brandbjerg' and 2) the INCREASE site at Mols. Field manipulations lasted years and included: Warming, summer drought and (CLIMAITE only) elevated CO{sub 2} concentrations. The treatments were applied individually and in all possible combinations. Further, at Brandbjerg, but outside the treatment plots, a study was performed on the effects nitrogen and phosphorus addition on phenology, chemistry and growth of the dominant grass Deschampsia flexuosa (Wavy Hairgrass). In general, the aboveground vegetation responded less than expected to changing climatic conditions; even though Calluna vulgaris (Heather) increased in biomass over the study period, the biomass was not affected by the manipulations, indicating that C. vulgaris, has a strong resistance to changes in climate. Also, the grass biomass (primarily D. flexuosa) was not affected and was relatively constant over the period. I argue that the resilience of D. flexuosa towards the climatic treatments came from the plants ability to let the tissue die back, and then quickly recover once conditions again became favourable. That gave the plant a high resilience to changes in climatic factors. Calluna vulgaris, on the other hand, showed a resistance to changes by constantly maintaining the growth during the whole season, probably because of its evergreen status. Together, the two different strategies made the heathland

Navigating Negative Conversations in Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Mandia, S. A.; Abraham, J. P.; Dash, J. W.; Ashley, M. C.

2012-12-01

Politically charged public discussions of climate change often lead to polarization as a direct result of many societal, economic, religious and other factors which form opinions. For instance, the general public views climate change as a political discussion rather than a scientific matter. Additionally, many media sources such as websites and mainstream venues and persons have served to promote the "controversy". Scientists who engage in a public discourse of climate change often encounter politically charged environments and audiences. Traditional presentations of the science without attention paid to political, social, or economic matters are likely to worsen the existing divide. An international organization, the Climate Science Rapid Response Team (CSRRT) suggests a strategy that can be used to navigate potentially troublesome situations with divided audiences. This approach can be used during live lecture presentations, and radio, print, or television interviews. The strategy involves identifying alternative motivations for taking action on climate change. The alternative motivations are tailored to the audience and can range from national defense, economic prosperity, religious motivation, patriotism, energy independence, or hunting/fishing reasons. Similar messaging modification can be used to faithfully and accurately convey the importance of taking action on climate change but present the motivations in a way that will be received by the audience.

Multiple aspects of climate change - Summary of presentations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, Jean-Claude; Bauer, Pierre; Le Treut, Herve; Woeppelmann, Guy; Kouraev, Alexei; Remy, Frederique; Berthier, Etienne; Lehodey, Patrick; Lebourgeois, Francois; Chuine, Isabelle; Vennetier, Michel; Duchene, Eric; Lafaye, Murielle

2011-01-01

The French Meteorological Society (SMF) organized its annual scientific day on March 23, 2011 on the topic of the multiple aspects of climate change. The aim was to take stock of the lessons learnt from the different meteorological markers in several domains (agriculture, forests, ecosystems, rise of sea level, changes in marine biodiversity, health, snow and ice caps..). This paper summarizes the seven presentations given at this meeting: 1 - climate change today and tomorrow (H. Le Treut); 2 - rise of oceans level: estimations and regional variability (G. Woeppelmann); 3 - polar caps and continental cryo-sphere as seen from space (A. Kouraev, F. Remy and E. Berthier); 4 - impact of climate change on exploited marine populations: projections and uncertainties (P. Lehodey); 5 - stakes of climate change on agricultural and winery activities in France (E. Duchene); 6 - impact of climate change on forest trees phenology and consequence on their survival and operation (F. Lebourgeois, I. Chuine and M. Vennetier); 7 - 'tele-epidemiology': a health-aid in a climate change context. (J.S.)

Future aridity under conditions of global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Asadi Zarch, Mohammad Amin; Sivakumar, Bellie; Malekinezhad, Hossein; Sharma, Ashish

2017-11-01

Global climate change is anticipated to cause some major changes in hydroclimatic conditions around the world. As aridity is a reliable indicator of potential available water, assessment of its changes under future climatic conditions is important for proper management of water. This study employs the UNESCO aridity/humidity index, which is a derivative of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), for assessment of aridity. Historical (1901-2005) simulations and future (2006-2100) projections of 22 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are studied. The Nested Bias Correction (NBC) approach is used to correct possible biases of precipitation (simulated directly by the GCMs) and PET (estimated by applying FAO56-Penman-Monteith model on simulated parameters of the GCMs). To detect future aridity changes, the areal extents of the aridity zones in the past and future periods as well as through four sub-periods (2006-2025, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, and 2076-2100) of the future are compared. The results indicate that changes in climate will alter the areal extents of aridity zones in the future. In general, from the first sub-period towards the last one, the area covered by hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid, and sub-humid zones will increase (by 7.46%, 7.01%, 5.80%, and 2.78%, respectively), while the area of the humid regions will decrease (by 4.76%), suggesting that there will be less water over the global land area in the future. To understand the cause of these changes, precipitation and PET are also separately assumed to be stationary throughout the four future sub-periods and the resulting aridity changes are then analyzed. The results reveal that the aridity changes are mostly caused by the positive PET trends, even though the slight precipitation increase lessens the magnitude of the changes.

Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuur, E A G; McGuire, A D; Schädel, C; Grosse, G; Harden, J W; Hayes, D J; Hugelius, G; Koven, C D; Kuhry, P; Lawrence, D M; Natali, S M; Olefeldt, D; Romanovsky, V E; Schaefer, K; Turetsky, M R; Treat, C C; Vonk, J E

2015-04-09

Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.

Civil war, climate change, and development: a scenario study for Sub-Saharan Africa

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Devitt, C.; Tol, R.S.J.

2012-01-01

This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war

The response of surface ozone to climate change over the Eastern United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. N. Racherla

2008-02-01

Full Text Available We investigate the response of surface ozone (O<sub>3sub> to future climate change in the eastern United States by performing simulations corresponding to present (1990s and future (2050s climates using an integrated model of global climate, tropospheric gas-phase chemistry, and aerosols. A future climate has been imposed using ocean boundary conditions corresponding to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for the 2050s decade. Present-day anthropogenic emissions and CO<sub>2sub>/CH>4sub> mixing ratios have been used in both simulations while climate-sensitive emissions were allowed to vary with the simulated climate. The severity and frequency of O<sub>3sub> episodes in the eastern U.S. increased due to future climate change, primarily as a result of increased O<sub>3sub> chemical production. The 95th percentile O<sub>3sub> mixing ratio increased by 5 ppbv and the largest frequency increase occured in the 80–90 ppbv range; the US EPA's current 8-h ozone primary standard is 80 ppbv. The increased O<sub>3sub> chemical production is due to increases in: 1 natural isoprene emissions; 2 hydroperoxy radical concentrations resulting from increased water vapor concentrations; and, 3 NO<sub>x> concentrations resulting from reduced PAN. The most substantial and statistically significant (p<0.05 increases in episode frequency occurred over the southeast and midatlantic U.S., largely as a result of 20% higher annual-average natural isoprene emissions. These results suggest a lengthening of the O<sub>3sub> season over the eastern U.S. in a future climate to include late spring and early fall months. Increased chemical production and shorter average lifetime are two consistent features of the seasonal response of surface O<sub>3sub>, with increased dry deposition loss rates contributing most to the reduced lifetime in all seasons except summer. Significant interannual variability is observed in the frequency of O<sub>3sub

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

Social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Brondízio, Eduardo S; de Lima, Ana C B; Schramski, Sam; Adams, Cristina

2016-07-01

The Amazon region has been part of climate change debates for decades, yet attention to its social and health dimensions has been limited. This paper assesses literature on the social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon. A conceptual framework underscores multiple stresses and exposures created by interactions between climate change and local social-environmental conditions. Using the Thomson-Reuter Web of Science, this study bibliometrically assessed the overall literature on climate change in the Amazon, including Physical Sciences, Social Sciences, Anthropology, Environmental Science/Ecology and Public, Environmental/Occupational Health. From this assessment, a relevant sub-sample was selected and complemented with literature from the Brazilian database SciELO. This sample discusses three dimensions of climate change impacts in the region: livelihood changes, vector-borne diseases and microbial proliferation, and respiratory diseases. This analysis elucidates imbalance and disconnect between ecological, physical and social and health dimensions of climate change and between continental and regional climate analysis, and sub-regional and local levels. Work on the social and health implications of climate change in the Amazon falls significantly behind other research areas, limiting reliable information for analytical models and for Amazonian policy-makers and society at large. Collaborative research is called for.

Climate change adaptation strategies: Water resources management options for smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa

OpenAIRE

Ngigi, S.N.

2009-01-01

Metadata only record This report describes a study that evaluated water management systems and their potential to address water scarcity problems in sub-Saharan Africa. Stress on water availability induced by climate change is negatively affecting smallholders causing crop productivity to decline. This study also notes that political and financial support of these small-scale water management systems is very important for sustainability. These researchers argue that there needs to be a Blu...

Climate change and water supply, management and use: A literature review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, L.H.; Draves, J.D.; Hunsaker, C.T.

1992-05-01

There is evidence that atmospheric concentrations Of C0{sub 2}, tropospheric 0{sub 3}, and CH{sub 4}, among other gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect, have increased in recent decades, and that these changes may induce changes in global air temperatures and regional climate features in coming years. A literature review was conducted to sample the literature base on which our understanding of the water resource impacts of climate change rests. Water resource issues likely to be important include hydrologic response to climate change, the resilience of water supply systems to changing climatic and hydrologic conditions, and the effects of climate change on water quality and water uses (such as navigation and energy generation). A computer-assisted search of literature on the effects of climate change on these subjects was conducted. All studies were classified by type of paper (e.g., review, discussion, case study), region, water resource variable studied, and source of climate scenario. The resulting bibliography containing more than 200 references was largely annotated. Case studies of potential hydrologic impacts have been more common than studies of impacts on water management or water use, but this apparent research gap is decreasing. Case studies demonstrating methods of incorporating potential risks of climate change into water project planning and management have been performed. Considerable variability in regional coverage exists; the Great Lakes basin and California receive relatively more attention than such regions as New England and the Missouri River basin. General circulation model-based and hypothetical climate scenarios have been the dominant sources of climate scenarios used in case studies, although a variety of other methods for developing climate scenarios have been developed.

Implications of rapid environmental change for polar bear behavior and sociality

Science.gov (United States)

Atwood, Todd C.

2017-01-01

Historically, the Arctic sea ice has functioned as a structural barrier that has limited the nature and extent of interactions between humans and polar bears (Ursus maritimus). However, declining sea ice extent, brought about by global climate change, is increasing the potential for human-polar bear interactions. Loss of sea ice habitat is driving changes to both human and polar bear behavior—it is facilitating increases in human activities (e.g., offshore oil and gas exploration and extraction, trans-Arctic shipping, recreation), while also causing the displacement of bears from preferred foraging habitat (i.e., sea ice over biologically productive shallow) to land in some portions of their range. The end result of these changes is that polar bears are spending greater amounts of time in close proximity to people. Coexistence between humans and polar bears will require imposing mechanisms to manage further development, as well as mitigation strategies that reduce the burden to local communities.

A dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Molen, M.K. van der [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen (Netherlands); Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Hazeleger, W. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands)

2011-11-15

In climate simulations we find a pronounced meridional (equator to pole) gradient of climate response to land cover change. Climate response approaches zero in the tropics, and increases towards the poles. The meridional gradient in climate response to land cover change results from damping feedbacks in the tropics, rather than from polar amplification. The main cause for the damping in the tropics is the decrease in cloud cover after deforestation, resulting in increased incoming radiation at the surface and a lower planetary albedo, both counteracting the increase in surface albedo with deforestation. In our simulations, deforestation was also associated with a decrease in sensible heat flux but not a clear signal in evaporation. Meridional differences in climate response have implications for attribution of observed climate change, as well as for climate change mitigation strategies. (orig.)

Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2009-01-01

The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the...

A Plan for improving the industrial constitution in Korea for the Convention on Climate Change - concentrated on manufacturing CO{sub 2} unit analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Sang In; Kim, Tae Wan; Kim, Yong Kun; Sohn, Yang Hoon; Kim, Seung Woo [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

Due to the implementation of the Convention on Climate Change in future, a policy plan to prepare for the Convention on Climate Change was promoted to improve constitution of domestic economy practically including foreign negotiation strategies, national energy policy and change in consumption pattern. Based on the CO{sub 2} unit analysis in manufacturing, this study proposed an improvement plan of industrial constitution in Korea to prepare for emission trading system. 31 refs., 30 figs., 68 tabs.

Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Trathan, P N; Forcada, J; Murphy, E J

2007-12-29

The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in

Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Kibret, Solomon; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew; Nhamo, Luxon; Wilson, G Glenn

2016-09-05

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has embarked on a new era of dam building to improve food security and promote economic development. Nonetheless, the future impacts of dams on malaria transmission are poorly understood and seldom investigated in the context of climate and demographic change. The distribution of malaria in the vicinity of 1268 existing dams in SSA was mapped under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Population projections and malaria incidence estimates were used to compute population at risk of malaria in both RCPs. Assuming no change in socio-economic interventions that may mitigate impacts, the change in malaria stability and malaria burden in the vicinity of the dams was calculated for the two RCPs through to the 2080s. Results were compared against the 2010 baseline. The annual number of malaria cases associated with dams and climate change was determined for each of the RCPs. The number of dams located in malarious areas is projected to increase in both RCPs. Population growth will add to the risk of transmission. The population at risk of malaria around existing dams and associated reservoirs, is estimated to increase from 15 million in 2010 to 21-23 million in the 2020s, 25-26 million in the 2050s and 28-29 million in the 2080s, depending on RCP. The number of malaria cases associated with dams in malarious areas is expected to increase from 1.1 million in 2010 to 1.2-1.6 million in the 2020s, 2.1-3.0 million in the 2050s and 2.4-3.0 million in the 2080s depending on RCP. The number of cases will always be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6. In the absence of changes in other factors that affect transmission (e.g., socio-economic), the impact of dams on malaria in SSA will be significantly exacerbated by climate change and increases in population. Areas without malaria transmission at present, which will transition to regions of unstable transmission, may be worst affected

Response of a tundra ecosytem to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and CO{sub 2}-induced climate change. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oechel, W.C.

1996-11-01

The overall objective of this research was to document current patterns of CO{sub 2} flux in selected locations of the circumpolar arctic, and to develop the information necessary to predict how these fluxes may be affected by climate change. In fulfillment of these objectives, net CO{sub 2} flux was measured at several sites on the North Slope of Alaska during the 1990-94 growing season (June-August) to determine the local and regional patterns, of seasonal CO{sub 2} exchange. In addition, net CO{sub 2} flux was measured in the Russian and Icelandic Arctic to determine if the patterns of CO{sub 2} exchange observed in Arctic Alaska were representative of the circumpolar arctic, while cold-season CO{sub 2} flux measurements were carried out during the 1993-94 winter season to determine the magnitude of CO{sub 2} efflux not accounted for by the growing season measurements. Manipulations of soil water table depth and surface temperature, which were identified from the extensive measurements as being the most important variables in determining the magnitude and direction of net CO{sub 2} exchange, were carried out during the 1993-94 growing seasons in tussock and wet sedge tundra ecosystems. Finally, measurements of CH{sub 4} flux were also measured at several of the North Slope study sites during the 1990-91 growing seasons. Measurements were made on small (e.g. 0.5 m{sup 2}) plots using a portable gas-exchange system and cuvette. The sample design allowed frequent measurements of net CO{sub 2} exchange and respiration over diurnal and seasonal cycles, and a large spatial extent that incorporated both locally and regionally diverse tundra surface types. Measurements both within and between ecosystem types typically extended over soil water table depth and temperature gradients, allowing for the indirect analysis of the effects of anticipated climate change scenarios on net CO{sub 2} exchange. In situ experiments provided a direct means for testing hypotheses.

Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

Science.gov (United States)

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

2016-01-01

Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kristina Blennow

Full Text Available Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

Climate-driven polar motion

Science.gov (United States)

Celaya, Michael A.; Wahr, John M.; Bryan, Frank O.

1999-06-01

The output of a coupled climate system model provides a synthetic climate record with temporal and spatial coverage not attainable with observational data, allowing evaluation of climatic excitation of polar motion on timescales of months to decades. Analysis of the geodetically inferred Chandler excitation power shows that it has fluctuated by up to 90% since 1900 and that it has characteristics representative of a stationary Gaussian process. Our model-predicted climate excitation of the Chandler wobble also exhibits variable power comparable to the observed. Ocean currents and bottom pressure shifts acting together can alone drive the 14-month wobble. The same is true of the excitation generated by the combined effects of barometric pressure and winds. The oceanic and atmospheric contributions are this large because of a relatively high degree of constructive interference between seafloor pressure and currents and between atmospheric pressure and winds. In contrast, excitation by the redistribution of water on land appears largely insignificant. Not surprisingly, the full climate effect is even more capable of driving the wobble than the effects of the oceans or atmosphere alone are. Our match to the observed annual excitation is also improved, by about 17%, over previous estimates made with historical climate data. Efforts to explain the 30-year Markowitz wobble meet with less success. Even so, at periods ranging from months to decades, excitation generated by a model of a coupled climate system makes a close approximation to the amplitude of what is geodetically observed.

Comparative responses of phenology and reproductive development to simulated environmental change in sub-arctic and high arctic plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wookey, P A; Welker, J M; Callaghan, T V [Inst. of Terrestrial Ecology, Merlewood Research Station, Grange-over-Sands, Cumbria (United Kingdom); Parsons, A N; Potter, J A; Lee, J A; Press, M C [Dept. of Environmental Biology, Univ. of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom)

1993-01-01

The effects of temperature, precipitation and nutrient perturbations, and their interactions, are being assessed on two contrasting arctic ecosystems to simulate impacts of climate change. One, a high arctic polar semi-desert community, is characterized by a sparse, low and aggregated vegetation cover where plant proliferation is by seedlings, whereas the other, a sub-arctic dwarf shrub health, is characterized by a complete, vegetation cover of erect, clonal dwarf shrubs which spread vegetatively. The developmental processes of seed production were shown to be highly sensitive, even within one growing season to specific environmental perturbations which differed between sites. At the polar semi-desert site, there was a striking effect of the temperature enhancement treatments on phenology and seed-setting of Dryas octopetala ssp. octopetala, with almost no seed-setting occurring in plots experiencing ambient temperatures. By contrast, there were no significant effects of temperature enhancement alone on fruit production of Empetrum hermaphroditum at the sub-Arctic dwarf shrub heath site, although fruit production was significantly influenced by the application of nutrients and/or water. The response of dominant high arctic dwarf shrub to increased temperature suggests that any climate warming may stimulate seed-set. This could be particularly important in the high Arctic where colonization can proceed in areas dominated by bare ground and where genetic recombination may be needed to generate tolerance to predicted changes of great magnitude. In the sub-Arctic, however the closed vegetation is dominated by clonally-proliferating species. Plant fitness will increase here in response to any increased vegetative growth resulting from higher nutrient availability in warmer organic soils. (ua) (59 refs.)

Climate and domestic projects CO{sub 2}: why and how?; Climat et projets domestiques CO{sub 2}: pourquoi et comment?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

In order to fight against the climatic change, the France decided to divide by four the greenhouse gases for 2050. With the emission trading, the industrialists and the energy producers progress in this way. But nothing is existing for the emission sectors as the transport, the agriculture, the building and for the greenhouse gases except the CO{sub 2}. The domestic projects CO{sub 2} approach aims to stimulate the realization of projects reducing the greenhouse gases emissions in these sectors, with a remuneration of these reductions. (A.L.B.)

Simulated warm polar currents during the middle Permian

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Winguth, A M.E.; Kutzbach, J E [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (USA). Center for Climatic Research; Heinze, C; Maier-Reimer, E; Mikolajewicz, U [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Rowley, D; Rees, A; Ziegler, A M [Chicago Univ., IL (United States). Dept. of Geophysical Sciences

2001-05-01

During Permian Stage 6 (Wordian, Kazanian) the Pangaean supercontinent was surrounded by a superocean - Panthalassa. An ocean general circulation model has been coupled to an atmospheric energy balance model to simulate the sensitivity of the Wordian climate ({proportional_to}265 million years ago) to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, high latitude geography, and Earth orbital configurations. The model shows a high sensitivity of the ocean circulation to changes in the greenhouse gas forcing, ranging from a forceful southern circulation at low CO{sub 2} concentration (present level) to a more symmetric circulation cell with deep water formation in both hemispheres at high CO{sub 2} concentration (8 x present level). The simulated climate with 4 x present level CO{sub 2} concentration agrees generally well with climate-sensitive sediments and phytogeographic patterns. In this experiment, the model simulates strong subtropical gyres with similarities to the modern South Pacific circulation and moderate surface temperatures on the southern continent Gondwana, resulting from a strong poleward heat transport in the ocean. An even more moderate climate can be generated if high latitude land is removed so that ocean currents can penetrate into the polar regions or if orbital configurations favor high summer insolation over Gondwana. (orig.)

Methane hydrates in quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennett, J. P.; Hill, T. M.; Behl, R. J.

2005-01-01

The hydrate reservoir in marine sediments is known to contain a large volume of exchangeable carbon stored as solid methane hydrate and associated free gas. This reservoir has been shown to be potentially unstable in response to changing intermediate water temperature and sea level (pressure). Evidence continues to grow for past episodes of major methane release at times of climatic warming. Yet few studies of late Quaternary climate change include methane hydrates as an integral part of the global climate system, in spite of the largest known oscillations at this time in sea level and upper ocean temperature changes for the Cenozoic or earlier, conditions that favor instability of the methane hydrate reservoir. Abrupt increases in atmospheric methane recorded in polar ice cores are widely believed to have resulted, not from ocean-floor methane degassing, but instead from continental wetland activation, a hypothesis thus far unsupported by geological data. Furthermore, as part of this Wetland Methane Hypothesis, the abrupt methane increases have been seen as a response to climatic warming rather than contributing significantly to the change. An alternative view (formulated as the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis) is that the speed, magnitude and timing of abrupt climate change in the recent geologic past are consistent with the process of major degassing of methane hydrates. We summarize aspects of this hypothesis here and needs to test this hypothesis. (Author)

Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nitin Kumar Tripathi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

2012-11-01

Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can

Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

2005-01-01

Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

Predicting impacts of increased CO{sub 2} and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Yiping, E-mail: ywu@usgs.gov [ASRC Research and Technology Solutions, contractor to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 (United States); Liu, Shuguang, E-mail: sliu@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 (United States); Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD 57007 (United States); Gallant, Alisa L., E-mail: gallant@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, SD 57198 (United States); Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD 57007 (United States)

2012-07-15

Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO{sub 3}-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO{sub 2}, precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO{sub 2} concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO{sub 3}-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO{sub 3}-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We used a modified version of SWAT to more accurately simulate the effects of CO{sub 2}. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Our sensitivity analysis indicated this basin is very responsive to climate change. Black

Level of knowledge in the science of climate change: will the climate really change in the 21st century?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourque, A.

2003-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently stated that mean temperature is not as stable as it used to be, indicating a trend toward global warming. Understanding this phenomena should lead to better decisions concerning reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. It should also make it easier to adapt our socio-economic and environmental activities to a new reality which seems inevitable. The author discussed climate equilibrium by looking at the five sub-systems: atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. A review of the historical evolution of climate was presented along with an examination of the relationships between greenhouse gases and the recent evolution of climate. The author discussed the uncertainty of scenarios predicting the future of climate change and concluded that climate change is upon us and is likely to intensify in the future. It was emphasized that adaptation to climate change will have to include reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the author, a scenario involving a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere appears almost unavoidable. 7 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs

Manipulating the ferroelectric polarization state of BaTiO{sub 3} thin films

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Datta, S.; Rioult, M.; Stanescu, D.; Magnan, H.; Barbier, A., E-mail: antoine.barbier@cea.fr

2016-05-31

Controlling the ferroelectric polarization at macroscopic or microscopic levels is crucial in the framework of the development of ferroelectric materials used in yet challenging photo-electrochemical (PEC) cells and spintronic applications. We report here on polarization methods allowing to electrically polarize prototypical samples of BaTiO{sub 3} (001) films. Epitaxial single crystalline layers were grown up to a thickness of 25 nm by atomic oxygen assisted molecular beam epitaxy on 1 at.% Nb doped SrTiO{sub 3} (001) single crystals. The samples were both microscopically and macroscopically polarized using Piezoresponse Force Microscopy and electrochemical poling in an electrolyte respectively. In addition we demonstrate the possibility to retrieve a quasi-native mixed ferroelectric polarization state after annealing. These polarization methods may be applied to many other ferroelectric thin films. - Highlights: • Ferroelectricity of BaTiO{sub 3} layers can be micro- and macroscopically controlled. • Microscopic ferroelectric domains are defined with piezoresponse force microscopy. • Poling in a LiClO{sub 4} electrolyte is a macroscopic poling method. • Air annealing above the Curie temperature “resets” the polarization state.

International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

1991-12-01

The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.

International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. [eds.

1991-12-01

The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with polar regions which occupy key positions in the global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks; (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosols and trace gases.

Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'National instruments for climate change policy'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verbruggen, H.; Nentjes, A.; Backhaus, J.G.; Jansen, H.M.A.

1995-01-01

Economic instruments for environmental protection feature in textbooks for their superior performance in terms of effectiveness and both static and dynamic efficiency, especially in cases characterized by a large number of polluters with large differences in abatement cost. These instruments are thus pre-eminently suited to be included in climate change policies. However, this proves to be very difficult as yet. The projects under this research sub-theme share a common interest in the complexities of implementing various types of economic instruments. The first project deals with the design of a European system of tradable emission rights. The second project is on the feasibility of ecological tax reform, with special reference to The Netherlands. The Climate Fund project, the third project, aims at investigating whether an international fund for side payments is an effective and efficient tool to reduce CO2 emissions. To that purpose, the world is divided into 9 regions. Finally, the fourth project uses an applied general equilibrium model to analyze the effectiveness and especially the income distributional effects of differently designed CO2 charges. The projects yield interesting results from which policy makers can benefit. There still are, however, blind spots. These and further research questions are identified. 4 refs

The development and climate nexus. The case of sub-Saharan Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, Ogunlade; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Huq, Saleemul; Kok, Marcel; Metz, Bert; Sokona, Youba; Verhagen, Jan

2003-01-01

This paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered by climate change. However, development can be shaped in such a way as to achieve its goals and at the same time reduce vulnerability to climate change, thereby facilitating sustainable development that realises economic, social, local and global environmental goals. This approach has been coined the 'development first approach', in which a future climate regime should focus on development strategies with ancillary climate benefits and increase the capability of developing countries to implement these. This is anticipated to offer a possible positive way out of the current deadlock between North and South in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development and climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development and climate strategies

Clamping-induced changes of domain morphology in 88%Pb(Zn{sub 1/3}Nb{sub 2/3})O{sub 3}-12%PbTiO{sub 3}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, L.-W., E-mail: lchang01@qub.ac.uk; Gregg, J. M., E-mail: m.gregg@qub.ac.uk [Centre for Nanostructured Media, School of Maths and Physics, Queen' s University Belfast, Northern Ireland BT7 1NN (United Kingdom); Nagarajan, V.; Okatan, M. B. [School of Materials Science and Engineering, University of New South Wales, New South Wales 2052 (Australia)

2014-08-14

Domain microstructures in single crystal lamellae of 88%Pb(Zn{sub 1/3}Nb{sub 2/3})O{sub 3}-12%PbTiO{sub 3} (cut from bulk using focused ion beam milling) have been mapped using both piezoresponse force microscopy and transmission electron microscopy. Dramatic changes from mottled microstructures typical of relaxors to larger scale domains typical of ferroelectrics have been noted. Stresses associated with substrate clamping are suspected as the cause for the transition from short- to long-range polar order, akin to effects induced by cation ordering achieved by thermal quenching.

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: Enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

OpenAIRE

de Boer, J.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Terpstra, T.

2016-01-01

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which ...

Climate change mitigation in Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mackenzie, G A; Turkson, J K; Davidson, O R [eds.

1998-10-01

The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

Climate change mitigation in Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R.

1998-10-01

The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on 'Climate Change Mitigation in Africa' between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Production in the Southern and Western Highlands Sub-agro Ecological Zones of Tanzania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philbert M. Luhunga

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC fourth assessment report confirmed that climate change is unequivocal. It is coming to us faster with larger impacts and bigger risks than even most climate scientists expected as recently as a few years ago. One particular worry is the disastrous consequence to agriculture and food security sectors in many parts of the world, particularly in developing countries. Adaptation is the only option to reduce the impacts of climate change. However, before planning adaptation policies or strategies to climate change, it is important to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale to have scientific evidence that would guide the formulation of such policies or strategies. In this study the impacts of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea Mays production in the southern and western highlands sub-agro ecological zones of Tanzania are evaluated. High resolution climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment_Regional Climate Models (CORDEX_RCMs were used as input into the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT to simulate maize yield in the historical climate condition (1971–2000, present (2010–2039, mid (2040–2069, and end (2070–2099 centuries. Daily rainfall, solar radiations, minimum and maximum temperatures for the historical (1971–2000 climate condition and future climate projections (2010–2099 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to drive DSSAT. The impacts of climate change were assessed by comparing the average maize yields in historical climate condition against the average of simulated maize yields in the present, mid and end centuries under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results of future maize yields estimates from DSSAT driven by individual RCMs under both RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 differs from one RCM to another and from one scenario to another. This highlight

Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Masson-Delmotte

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. We give an overview of the methods that have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores and highlight several points that are relevant for future climate change. We first analyse the long term fluctuations of temperature as depicted in the long Antarctic record from EPICA Dome C. The long term imprint of obliquity changes in the EPICA Dome C record is highlighted and compared to simulations conducted with the ECBILT-CLIO intermediate complexity climate model. We discuss the comparison between the current interglacial period and the long interglacial corresponding to marine isotopic stage 11, ~400 kyr BP. Previous studies had focused on the role of precession and the thresholds required to induce glacial inceptions. We suggest that, due to the low eccentricity configuration of MIS 11 and the Holocene, the effect of precession on the incoming solar radiation is damped and that changes in obliquity must be taken into account. The EPICA Dome C alignment of terminations I and VI published in 2004 corresponds to a phasing of the obliquity signals. A conjunction of low obliquity and minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation is not found in the next tens of thousand years, supporting the idea of an unusually long interglacial ahead. As a second point relevant for future climate change, we discuss the magnitude and rate of change of past temperatures reconstructed from Greenland (NorthGRIP and Antarctic (Dome C ice cores. Past episodes of temperatures above the present-day values by up to 5°C are recorded at both locations during the penultimate interglacial period. The rate of polar warming simulated by coupled climate models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year is compared to ice

Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sicard, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.sicard@acri-st.fr [ACRI-ST, 260 route du Pin Montard, BP 234, 06904 Sophia Antipolis cedex (France); Dalstein-Richier, Laurence [GIEFS (Groupe International d’Etudes des Forêts Sud-européennes) – 60, Avenue des Hespérides, 06300 Nice (France)

2015-02-15

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate change context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O{sub 3}) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O{sub 3} injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46–1.08 °C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95–4.59 °C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O{sub 3} precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O{sub 3} uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O{sub 3} uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O{sub 3} on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O{sub 3} pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate

Investigation of magnetic mesostructure of (Pd{sub 0.984}Fe{sub 0.016}){sub 0.95}Mn{sub 0.05} alloy by polarized neutrons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gordeev, G. [Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute RAS, 188300 Gatchina, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)]. E-mail: ggordev@pnpi.spb.ru; Zabenkin, V. [Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute RAS, 188300 Gatchina, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Axelrod, L. [Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute RAS, 188300 Gatchina, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Lazebnik, I. [Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute RAS, 188300 Gatchina, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Wagner, V. [Physikalish-Technishe Bundesanstalt D-38116, Braunschweig (Germany); Eckerlebe, H. [Forschung Zentrum GKSS, Geesthacht (Germany)

2007-07-15

Neutron depolarization measurements and a simple model for depolarization were used to determine the geometrical sizes of magnetic inhomogeneities in the (Pd{sub 0.984}Fe{sub 0.016}){sub 0.95}Mn{sub 0.05} alloy. Polarized small angle scattering shows an asymmetric part, which should be attributed to a chiral ordering of the spins.

Airborne geophysics for mesoscale observations of polar sea ice in a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Hendricks, S.; Haas, C.; Krumpen, T.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.

2016-12-01

Sea ice thickness is an important geophysical parameter with a significant impact on various processes of the polar energy balance. It is classified as Essential Climate Variable (ECV), however the direct observations of the large ice-covered oceans are limited due to the harsh environmental conditions and logistical constraints. Sea-ice thickness retrieval by the means of satellite remote sensing is an active field of research, but current observational capabilities are not able to capture the small scale variability of sea ice thickness and its evolution in the presence of surface melt. We present an airborne observation system based on a towed electromagnetic induction sensor that delivers long range measurements of sea ice thickness for a wide range of sea ice conditions. The purpose-built sensor equipment can be utilized from helicopters and polar research aircraft in multi-role science missions. While airborne EM induction sounding is used in sea ice research for decades, the future challenge is the development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform that meet the requirements for low-level EM sea ice surveys in terms of range and altitude of operations. The use of UAV's could enable repeated sea ice surveys during the the polar night, when manned operations are too dangerous and the observational data base is presently very sparse.

An Arctic predator-prey system in flux: climate change impacts on coastal space use by polar bears and ringed seals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Charmain D; Kovacs, Kit M; Ims, Rolf A; Aars, Jon; Lydersen, Christian

2017-09-01

Climate change is impacting different species at different rates, leading to alterations in biological interactions with ramifications for wider ecosystem functioning. Understanding these alterations can help improve predictive capacity and inform management efforts designed to mitigate against negative impacts. We investigated how the movement and space use patterns of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in coastal areas in Svalbard, Norway, have been altered by a sudden decline in sea ice that occurred in 2006. We also investigated whether the spatial overlap between polar bears and their traditionally most important prey, ringed seals (Pusa hispida), has been affected by the sea-ice decline, as polar bears are dependent on a sea-ice platform for hunting seals. We attached biotelemetry devices to ringed seals (n = 60, both sexes) and polar bears (n = 67, all females) before (2002-2004) and after (2010-2013) a sudden decline in sea ice in Svalbard. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate the association of these species to environmental features and an approach based on Time Spent in Area to investigate changes in spatial overlap between the two species. Following the sea-ice reduction, polar bears spent the same amount of time close to tidal glacier fronts in the spring but less time in these areas during the summer and autumn. However, ringed seals did not alter their association with glacier fronts during summer, leading to a major decrease in spatial overlap values between these species in Svalbard's coastal areas. Polar bears now move greater distances daily and spend more time close to ground-nesting bird colonies, where bear predation can have substantial local effects. Our results indicate that sea-ice declines have impacted the degree of spatial overlap and hence the strength of the predator-prey relationship between polar bears and ringed seals, with consequences for the wider Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Shifts in ecological

Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO{sub 2} and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ficklin, Darren L.; Luo Yuzhou; Luedeling, Eike; Gatzke, Sarah E. [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Zhang Minghua, E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.ed [Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

2010-01-15

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO{sub 2}, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO{sub 2} concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by +-10% and +-20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO{sub 2} concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO{sub 2} concentration changes. - Agricultural runoff is significantly affected by changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koblinsky, C.J.; Gaspar, P.; Lagerloef, G.

1992-03-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments

CO{sub 2} and climate protection. Facts, mistakes, policy; CO{sub 2} und Klimaschutz. Fakten, Irrtuemer, Politk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luedecke, H.J.

2008-07-01

The author outlines the technical fundamental coherences of the CO{sub 2} problem generally clear and without unnecessary technical details. ''Which measuring methods founds on climate warning, are extrem weather disasters increasing, is the sea level raising, is a warmer climate harmful or useful, are wind turbines solar cells or biofuels meaningful, who is profitting from climate fear, which role play policy and ideology?'' are questions this book dealt with. Expert fundamentals, not political opinions are derived from reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the climatic department of the UN, reference items from internet contributions and specialist books. (GL)

Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rohrer, Mario [Meteodat GmbH, Technoparkstrasse 1, CH-8005 Zurich (Switzerland); Salzmann, Nadine [Department of Geosciences, Geography, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 4, CH-1700 Fribourg (Switzerland); Stoffel, Markus, E-mail: markus.stoffel@unige.ch [Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Chemin de Drize 7, CH-1227 Carouge, Geneva (Switzerland); Dendrolab.ch, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1+3, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland); Kulkarni, Anil V. [Divecha Center for Climate Change, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560 012 (India)

2013-12-01

The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H{sub 2}O, CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance – such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon – or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff. - Highlights: • Remotely sensed snow-cover data need to be validated by in-situ measurements. • More in-situ snow measurement programs are

CO<sub>2sub> Binding Organic Liquids Gas Capture with Polarity Swing Assisted Regeneration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heldebrant, David [Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, OH (United States)

2014-05-31

This report outlines the comprehensive bench-scale testing of the CO<sub>2sub>-binding organic liquids (CO<sub>2sub>BOLs) solvent platform and its unique Polarity Swing Assisted Regeneration (PSAR). This study outlines all efforts on a candidate CO<sub>2sub>BOL solvent molecule, including solvent synthesis, material characterization, preliminary toxicology studies, and measurement of all physical, thermodynamic and kinetic data, including bench-scale testing. Equilibrium and kinetic models and analysis were made using Aspen Plus™. Preliminary process configurations, a technoeconomic assessment and solvent performance projections for separating CO<sub>2sub> from a subcritical coal-fired power plant are compared to the U.S. Department of Energy's Case 10 monoethanolamine baseline.

Communicating climate change in Africa through the theatre for ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The reality of climate change has started dawning on various parts of the world. ... has resulted in the thawing of the ice at the polar regions, which has caused the ... and the disruption of services essential for human existence and continuity.

Engaging informal audiences in learning about and responding to climate change through a portfolio of innovative approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.; Orlove, B. S.; Bachrach, E.; Hamilton, L.

2017-12-01

Informal learners have many different backgrounds, experiences, and perspectives. How can informal educators effectively reach such diverse audiences, meeting people where they are with regard to climate change? The Polar Learning and Responding: PoLAR Climate Change Education Partnership, supported by NSF, employs surveys, resource development, and research to develop innovative, evidence-based approaches that engage lifelong learners. General-public surveys on climate change yield insights on the knowledge and perceptions that informal learners bring to the table. That helps guide the creation of new tools for effective communication. For example, many people are unsure what causes sea level to rise. The Polar Explorer: Sea Level app uses a data and question-based approach guiding people through interactive maps to learn about melting land ice. In addition, people also tend to believe that climate impacts will happen in the future. Polar Voices podcasts feature Arctic Indigenous communities sharing first-hand experiences with climate change. Prior knowledge can be harnessed to enhance learning. Arctic SMARTIC engages people in role-playing negotiations with others to create a marine management plan. Climate game jams provide collaborative, creative spaces where participants learn as they interact with others. In each case participants, with all their knowledge and experience, are brought into group problem-solving. Understanding whom people trust for climate-change information offers insights that help them become climate communicators. Even those who are concerned about climate often do not discuss it with family and friends (Maibach et al. 2016), yet our research shows that family and friends are second only to scientists as trusted sources of climate information (Hamilton 2016). Fun and novel educational tools such as the EcoChains card game and the EcoKoin social networking app serve as conversation starters.

Changes in Hydrologic Conditions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Circumpolar Regions due to Climate Change Induced Permafrost Retreat

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Whiticar, M. J. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria (Canada); Bhatti, J.; Startsev, N. [Northern Forestry Centre, St Edmonton, AB (Canada)

2013-07-15

Thawing permafrost peatlands substantially influence Canadian northern ecosystems by changing the regional hydrology and mobilizing the vast carbon (C) reserves that results in increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions to the atmosphere. With permafrost distribution controlled largely by topography and climate, our International polar y ear (IPY) study intensively monitored the local C cycling processes and GHG fluxes associated with different hydrologic and permafrost environments at 4 sites along a climatic gradient extending from the Isolated patches permafrost Zone (northern alberta), to the continuous permafrost Zone (Inuvik, NWT). Each site encompasses a local gradient from upland forest and peat plateau to collapse scar. Our multi-year measurements of peatland profiles and flux chambers for CH{sub 4} and CO{sub 2} concentrations and stable isotope ratios indicate processes, including methanogenesis, methanotrophy, transport and emission that control the distribution of these GHGs. These relationships are modulated by fluctuating local soil water and corresponding ecosystem conditions. The gas geochemistry shows that significant surface CH{sub 4} production occurs by both hydrogenotrophic and acetoclastic methanogenesis in submerged, anaerobic peats, e.g., collapse scars, whereas methane oxidation is restricted to aerobic, drier environments, e.g., upland sites and peat-atmosphere interface. The most active methanogenesis and emissions are in areas of actively thawing permafrost contrasting with sites under continuous permafrost. This degree of methanogenesis is being amplified by the increased rate of Arctic warming and the rapid retreat of permafrost in canada's arctic (approximately. 2.5 km/a). (author)

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

Science.gov (United States)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

Science.gov (United States)

Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

2013-12-01

While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

Differences in mercury bioaccumulation between polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the Canadian high- and sub-Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

St Louis, Vincent L; Derocher, Andrew E; Stirling, Ian; Graydon, Jennifer A; Lee, Caroline; Jocksch, Erin; Richardson, Evan; Ghorpade, Sarah; Kwan, Alvin K; Kirk, Jane L; Lehnherr, Igor; Swanson, Heidi K

2011-07-15

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are being impacted by climate change and increased exposure to pollutants throughout their northern circumpolar range. In this study, we quantified concentrations of total mercury (THg) in the hair of polar bears from Canadian high- (southern Beaufort Sea, SBS) and sub- (western Hudson Bay, WHB) Arctic populations. Concentrations of THg in polar bears from the SBS population (14.8 ± 6.6 μg g(-1)) were significantly higher than in polar bears from WHB (4.1 ± 1.0 μg g(-1)). On the basis of δ(15)N signatures in hair, in conjunction with published δ(15)N signatures in particulate organic matter and sediments, we estimated that the pelagic and benthic food webs in the SBS are ∼ 4.7 and ∼ 4.0 trophic levels long, whereas in WHB they are only ∼ 3.6 and ∼ 3.3 trophic levels long. Furthermore, the more depleted δ(13)C ratios in hair from SBS polar bears relative to those from WHB suggests that SBS polar bears feed on food webs that are relatively more pelagic (and longer), whereas polar bears from WHB feed on those that are relatively more benthic (and shorter). Food web length and structure accounted for ∼ 67% of the variation we found in THg concentrations among all polar bears across both populations. The regional difference in polar bear hair THg concentrations was also likely due to regional differences in water-column concentrations of methyl Hg (the toxic form of Hg that biomagnifies through food webs) available for bioaccumulation at the base of the food webs. For example, concentrations of methylated Hg at mid-depths in the marine water column of the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago were 79.8 ± 37.3 pg L(-1), whereas, in HB, they averaged only 38.3 ± 16.6 pg L(-1). We conclude that a longer food web and higher pelagic concentrations of methylated Hg available to initiate bioaccumulation in the BS resulted in higher concentrations of THg in polar bears from the SBS region compared to those inhabiting the western

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mahmud

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM<sub>0.1sub>, PM<sub>2.5sub>, and PM<sub>10sub> total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM<sub>2.5sub> mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM<sub>2.5sub> mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM<sub>2.5sub> concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH<sub>4sub>NO>3sub>. In general, climate

Who trusts scientists for information about climate change? Nuclear power? Vaccines?

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, L.

2015-12-01

US public acceptance/rejection of science on the topic of climate change has become highly polarized, with a demographic profile well established through survey research. Trust in scientists for information about climate change tends to increase with education, decrease with age, and is higher among self-identified liberals and moderates than among conservatives. Demographic profiles of people who do or do not trust scientists regarding other disputed topics are less well established. Some observers have argued that certain domains such as vaccines, nuclear power or genetically modified organisms (GMOs) could present a mirror image of climate change, with liberals instead of conservatives disproportionately rejecting science on that topic. Evidence for this mirror-image hypothesis has been mainly anecdotal, however. Here we test it systematically using statewide survey data on more than 1200 interviews, comparing five similarly worded questions that ask respondents whether they trust, don't trust, or are unsure about scientists as a source of information about ... climate change, vaccines, evolution, nuclear power safety, or GMOs. Climate change proves to be the most polarized of these topics, but all five exhibit roughly similar age, education and ideological effects -- contrary to the mirror-image hypothesis. The common patterns across five science domains, chosen for their hypothetical contrasts, map out an unexpectedly cohesive picture of who trusts scientists for information, and who does not. Implications of these survey results for public outreach and science communication are explored.

Structural, electronic properties and enhancement of electrical polarization in Er{sub 2}NiMnO{sub 6}/La{sub 2}NiMnO{sub 6} superlattice by first-principles calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lu, Haipeng; Deng, Longjiang [National Engineering Research Center of Electromagnetic Radiation Control Materials, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610054 (China); State Key Laboratory of Electronic Thin Films and Integrated Devices, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610054 (China); Sun, Xun, E-mail: sunxunphy@hotmail.com; Hou, Zhihua; Yang, Wen; Wang, Siyuan; Xie, Jianliang [State Key Laboratory of Electronic Thin Films and Integrated Devices, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610054 (China)

2016-03-15

Employing first-principles calculations, structural, electronic properties of new multiferroic material Er{sub 2}NiMnO{sub 6}/La{sub 2}NiMnO{sub 6} perovskite superlattice are investigated. This structure is computed as monoclinic phase with obvious distortion. The average in-plane anti-phase rotation angle, average out-of-plane in-phase rotation angle and other microscopic features are reported in this paper. Ni and Mn are found in this superlattice that stay high spin states. These microscopic properties play important roles in multiferroic properties. Based on these microscopic features, the relationship between the direction of spontaneous polarization and the order of substitution in neighboring A-O layers is explained. Finally, we try to enhance the electrical polarization magnitude by 32% by altering the previous superlattice as LaEr{sub 2}NiMnO{sub 7} structure. Our results show that both repulsion force of A site rare earth ions and the arrangement of B site ions can exert influences on spontaneous polarization.

Climate change track in river floods in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. W. Kundzewicz

2015-06-01

Full Text Available A holistic perspective on changing river flood risk in Europe is provided. Economic losses from floods have increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. Climate change (i.e. observed increase in precipitation intensity, decrease of snowpack and other observed climate changes might already have had an impact on floods. However, no gauge-based evidence had been found for a climate-driven, widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades. There are strong regional and sub-regional variations in the trends. Moreover, it has not been generally possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change. Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local floods, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected. However, there is low confidence in future changes in flood magnitude and frequency resulting from climate change. The impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes. Discussion of projections of flood hazard in Europe is offered. Attention is drawn to a considerable uncertainty - over the last decade or so, projections of flood hazard in Europe have largely changed.

Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2)

Science.gov (United States)

Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

2017-07-01

The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx), HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect caused by the

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Monserud, R.A. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Portland, OR (United States); Yang, Y.; Huang, S. [Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Forest Management Branch; Tchebakova, N. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk (Russian Federation). Sukachev Forest Inst.

2008-02-15

The Alberta climate model was used in conjunction with climate change scenario projections from 3 global circulation models to estimate the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine site productivity in Alberta. The modelling study demonstrated that mean growing degree days greater than 5 degrees C (GGD{sub 5}) were increased by 18 per cent, 38 per cent, and 65 per cent by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively. Changes in precipitation did not occur. A dryness index was used to predict productivity ranges and GDD{sub 5}. Results showed that productivity increased by 3 meters for each 30-year period. A large reduction in growing areas was also indicated. Initially, warming increased the potential growing range by 67 per cent by the year 2020. By 2080, growing ranges had decreased to 58 per cent of its current area. Changes in range should be considered when setting longer-term forest management plans. It was concluded that the increased risk of both insect and wildfire outbreaks must also be considered. 40 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs.

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

Science.gov (United States)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2016-05-01

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

Polar bear attacks on humans: Implications of a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Wilder, James; Vongraven, Dag; Atwood, Todd C.; Hansen, Bob; Jessen, Amalie; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; York, Geoff; Vallender, Rachel; Hedman, Daryll; Gibbons, Melissa

2017-01-01

Understanding causes of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) attacks on humans is critical to ensuring both human safety and polar bear conservation. Although considerable attention has been focused on understanding black (U. americanus) and grizzly (U. arctos) bear conflicts with humans, there have been few attempts to systematically collect, analyze, and interpret available information on human-polar bear conflicts across their range. To help fill this knowledge gap, a database was developed (Polar Bear-Human Information Management System [PBHIMS]) to facilitate the range-wide collection and analysis of human-polar bear conflict data. We populated the PBHIMS with data collected throughout the polar bear range, analyzed polar bear attacks on people, and found that reported attacks have been extremely rare. From 1870–2014, we documented 73 attacks by wild polar bears, distributed among the 5 polar bear Range States (Canada, Greenland, Norway, Russia, and United States), which resulted in 20 human fatalities and 63 human injuries. We found that nutritionally stressed adult male polar bears were the most likely to pose threats to human safety. Attacks by adult females were rare, and most were attributed to defense of cubs. We judged that bears acted as a predator in most attacks, and that nearly all attacks involved ≤2 people. Increased concern for both human and bear safety is warranted in light of predictions of increased numbers of nutritionally stressed bears spending longer amounts of time on land near people because of the loss of their sea ice habitat. Improved conflict investigation is needed to collect accurate and relevant data and communicate accurate bear safety messages and mitigation strategies to the public. With better information, people can take proactive measures in polar bear habitat to ensure their safety and prevent conflicts with polar bears. This work represents an important first step towards improving our understanding of factors influencing

Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven

2013-01-01

Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion

Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ruqiu, Y. [China National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China)

1995-06-01

Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs.

Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Sinkyu [Department of Environmental Science, Kangwon National University, Chunchon, Kangwon-do 200-701 (Korea, Republic of); Kimball, John S.; Running, Steven W. [Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 (United States)

2006-06-01

We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km{sup 2} portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T{sub a}), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 {sup o}C for T{sub a} and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2}, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients. (author)

Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Wohltmann

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs and Earth system models (ESMs to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. To date, climate models often use prescribed ozone fields, since a full stratospheric chemistry scheme is computationally very expensive. Polar SWIFT is based on a set of coupled differential equations, which simulate the polar vortex-averaged mixing ratios of the key species involved in polar ozone depletion on a given vertical level. These species are O3, chemically active chlorine (ClOx, HCl, ClONO2 and HNO3. The only external input parameters that drive the model are the fraction of the polar vortex in sunlight and the fraction of the polar vortex below the temperatures necessary for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds. Here, we present an update of the Polar SWIFT model introducing several improvements over the original model formulation. In particular, the model is now trained on vortex-averaged reaction rates of the ATLAS Chemistry and Transport Model, which enables a detailed look at individual processes and an independent validation of the different parameterizations contained in the differential equations. The training of the original Polar SWIFT model was based on fitting complete model runs to satellite observations and did not allow for this. A revised formulation of the system of differential equations is developed, which closely fits vortex-averaged reaction rates from ATLAS that represent the main chemical processes influencing ozone. In addition, a parameterization for the HNO3 change by denitrification is included. The rates of change of the concentrations of the chemical species of the Polar SWIFT model are purely chemical rates of change in the new version, whereas in the original Polar SWIFT model, they included a transport effect

CO/sub 2/, carbon cycle and climate interactions. Pt. 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Maier-Reimer, E; Degens, E T; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

1984-05-01

To assess the reaction of the climate system on increased CO/sub 2/ in the air either numerical atmospheric models have been used, or one has tried to filter a CO/sub 2/-induced climate trend (such as increasing temperature) from existing meteorological records. Even though a serious effect of increased CO/sub 2/ on climate has become highly probable, it has neither been empirically proven so far (diagnosis of observations) nor is the effect theoretically undisputed (prognosis by climate models).

Response of a tundra ecosystem to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and CO{sub 2}-induced climate change. Annual technical report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oechel, W.C.

1993-02-01

Northern ecosystems contain up to 455 Gt of C in the soil active layer and upper permafrost, which is equivalent to approximately 60% of the carbon currently in the atmosphere as CO{sub 2}. Much of this carbon is stored in the soil as dead organic matter. Its fate is subject to the net effects of global change on the plant and soil systems of northern ecosystems. The arctic alone contains about 60 Gt C, 90% of which is present in the soil active layer and upper permafrost, and is assumed to have been a sink for CO{sub 2} during the historic and recent geologic past. Depending on the nature, rate, and magnitude of global environmental change, the arctic may have a positive or negative feedback on global change. Results from the DOE- funded research efforts of 1990 and 1991 indicate that the arctic has become a source of CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere. Measurements made in the Barrow, Alaska region during 1992 support these results. This change coincides with recent climatic variation in the arctic, and suggests a positive feedback of arctic ecosystems on atmospheric CO{sub 2} and global change. There are obvious potential errors in scaling plot level measurements to landscape, mesoscale, and global spatial scales. In light of the results from the recent DOE-funded research, and the remaining uncertainties regarding the change in arctic ecosystem function due to high latitude warming, a revised set of research goals is proposed for the 1993--94 year. The research proposed in this application has four principal aspects: (A) Long- term response of arctic plants and ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2}. (B) Circumpolar patterns of net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux. (C) In situ controls by temperature and moisture on net ecosystem CO{sub 2} flux. (D) Scaling of CO{sub 2} flux from plot, to landscape, to regional scales.

Improving Climate Change Communication Skills through Community Outreach

Science.gov (United States)

Hanrahan, J.

2015-12-01

While many undergraduate Atmospheric Science departments are expanding their curriculums to focus on the science of climate change, often overlooked is the need to educate students about how this topic can be effectively communicated to others. It has become increasingly difficult for young scientists to comfortably discuss this polarizing topic with people outside of the classroom. To address this, Atmospheric Science faculty at Lyndon State College are providing undergraduate students the opportunity to practice this important skill by reaching out to the local community. Over the past year, students have been meeting regularly to discuss climate change and its impacts, and to present this information to the general public at local schools and organizations. The group was organized with the primary goal of teaching undergraduate students about effective ways to communicate basic climate science to nonscientists, but to also improve public understanding of anthropogenic climate change while starting a conversation among young people in the community. We will identify lessons learned after one year, discuss effective strategies, and summarize student feedback.

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

Climate change (elevated CO{sub 2}, elevated temperature and moderate drought) triggers the antioxidant enzymes' response of grapevine cv. Tempranillo, avoiding oxidative damage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salazar-Parra, C.; Aguirreolea, J.; Sanchez-Diaz, M.; Irigoyen, J.J.; Morales, F. (Departamento de Biologia Vegetal, Seccion Biologia Vegetal (Unidad Asociada al CSIC, EEAD, Zaragoza e ICVV, Logrono), Facultades de Ciencias y Farmacia, Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain))

2012-07-01

Photosynthetic carbon fixation (A{sub N}) and photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) are affected by different environmental stress factors, such as those associated with climate change. Under stress conditions, it can be generated an electron excess that cannot be consumed, which can react with O{sub 2}, producing reactive oxygen species. This work was aimed to evaluate the influence of climate change (elevated CO{sub 2}, elevated temperature and moderate drought) on the antioxidant status of grapevine (Vitis vinifera) cv. Tempranillo leaves, from veraison to ripeness. The lowest ratios between electrons generated (ETR) and consumed (A{sub N} + respiration + photorespiration) were observed in plants treated with elevated CO{sub 2} and elevated temperature. In partially irrigated plants under current ambient conditions, electrons not consumed seemed to be diverted to alternative ways. Oxidative damage to chlorophylls and carotenoids was not observed. However, these plants had increases in thiobarbituric acid reacting substances, an indication of lipid peroxidation. These increases matched well with an early rise of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and antioxidant enzyme activities, superoxide dismutase (EC 1.15.1.1), ascorbate peroxidase (EC 1.11.1.11) and catalase (EC 1.11.1.6). Enzymatic activities were maintained high until ripeness. In conclusion, plants grown under current ambient conditions and moderate drought were less efficient to cope with oxidative damage than well-irrigated plants, and more interestingly, plants grown under moderate drought but treated with elevated CO{sub 2} and elevated temperature were not affected by oxidative damage, mainly because of higher rates of electrons consumed in photosynthetic carbon fixation. (Author)

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Durner, George M.; Douglas, David C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, Mark C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, Jon; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

2009-01-01

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

Model of climate evolution based on continental drift and polar wandering

Science.gov (United States)

Donn, W. L.; Shaw, D. M.

1977-01-01

The thermodynamic meteorologic model of Adem is used to trace the evolution of climate from Triassic to present time by applying it to changing geography as described by continental drift and polar wandering. Results show that the gross changes of climate in the Northern Hemisphere can be fully explained by the strong cooling in high latitudes as continents moved poleward. High-latitude mean temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere dropped below the freezing point 10 to 15 m.y. ago, thereby accounting for the late Cenozoic glacial age. Computed meridional temperature gradients for the Northern Hemisphere steepened from 20 to 40 C over the 200-m.y. period, an effect caused primarily by the high-latitude temperature decrease. The primary result of the work is that the cooling that has occurred since the warm Mesozoic period and has culminated in glaciation is explainable wholly by terrestrial processes.

A New Strategy for Mitigating Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaya, Y.; Akimoto, K./ Oda, J.

2007-07-01

This paper proposes a new strategy for mitigating climate change, both in short term and in long term. The basic character of the strategy is action oriented with multi-country collaboration, while the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and Kyoto protocol is numerical target oriented within United Nation Framework. The introductory part of the paper briefly describes deficits of FCCC and Kyoto protocol and the needs of a different strategy for mitigating climate change. Then the short term strategy is focused on energy conservation and its effectiveness for mitigating climate change is illustrated by estimating the potential of reducing CO{sub 2} emission when intense collaboration is achieved for distributing main energy conservation measures in power generation and key industries among Asia Pacific Partnership countries. The long term strategy is developing novel types of renewables among countries. Geoheat and space solar power systems (SSPS) are candidates which may be developed among major developed countries. Necessity of international collaboration is stressed for R and D of these candidate renewables. (auth)

Autonomous Control, Climate and Environmental Changes Effects ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Autonomous Control, Climate and Environmental Changes Effects on Trypanosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review. ... African trypanosomiasis is a parasitic disease that causes serious economic losses in livestock due to anemia, loss of condition and emaciation. The disease when neglected is lethal and untreated ...

Polarization measurement by use of discrete space-variant sub wavelength dielectric gratings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biener, G.; Niv, A.; Gorodetski, Yu.; Kleiner, V.; Hasman, E.

2004-01-01

Full Text:Polarization measurement has been widely used for a large range of applications such as ellipsometry bio-imaging, imaging polarimetry and optical communications. A commonly used method is measuring of the time-dependent signal once the beam is transmitted through a photoelastic modulator or a rotating quarter-wave plate followed by an analyzer. The polarization state of the beam can be derived by Fourier analysis of the detected signal. This method, however, requires a sequence of consecutive measurements, thus making it impractical for real-time polarization measurement in an application such as adaptive polarization-mode dispersion compensation in optical communications. Recently, we developed a novel method for real-time polarization measurement by use of a discrete space-variant sub wavelength dielectric grating (DSG). The formation of the grating is done by discrete orientation of the local sub wavelength grooves. The complete polarization analysis of the incident beam is determined by spatial Fourier transform of the near-field intensity distribution transmitted through the DSG followed by a sub wavelength metal polarizer. We realized the gratings for CO 2 laser radiation at a wavelength of 10.6 micron on GaAs substrate utilizing advanced photo lithographic and etching techniques. We experimentally demonstrated the ability of our method to measure the polarization state for fully and partially polarized light. Unlike other methods based on Fourier analysis, no active elements are required. It is possible to integrate our polarimeter on a two-dimensional detector array for lab-on chip applications to achieve a high-throughput and low-cost commercial polarimeter for bio sensing. Currently we are investigating the possibility of using far-field measurement of the beam emerging from a DSG for polarization measurement

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Delong; Wu, Shuyao; Liu, Laibao; Zhang, Yatong; Li, Shuangcheng

2018-05-27

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Strain profile and polarization enhancement in Ba{sub 0.5}Sr{sub 0.5}TiO{sub 3} thin films

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amir, F.Z. [Physics Department, St John' s University, 8000 Utopia Pkwy, Jamaica, NY 11439 (United States); Donner, W. [Institute of Materials Science, Darmstadt University of Technology, Petersenstr. 23, 64287 Darmstadt (Germany); Aspelmeyer, M. [Vienna Center for Quantum Science and Technology, Faculty of Physics, University of Vienna, Boltzmanngasse 5, 1090 Vienna (Austria); Noheda, B. [Department of Chemical Physics, Zernike Institute for Advanced Materials, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 4, 9747 AG Groningen (Netherlands); Xi, X.X. [Physics Department, College of Science and Technology, Temple University, 1900 N.13th Street, Philadelphia, PA 19122 (United States); Moss, S.C. [Department of Physics, University of Houston, 617 Science and Research Building 1, Houston, Texas 77204-5005 (United States)

2012-11-15

The sensitivity of spontaneous polarization to epitaxial strain for both 10 and 50 nm thick Ba{sub 0.5}Sr{sub 0.5}TiO{sub 3} (BSTO) ferroelectric thin films has been studied. Crystal truncation rod (CTR) profiles in the 00L directions at different wavelengths, and grazing incidence diffraction (GID) in the 0K0 direction on a single crystal have been recorded. Modeling of the CTR data gives a detailed picture of the strain and provides clear evidence of the film out-of-plane expansion at the surface, an increase of the polarization, as well as a contraction at the interface. GID data confirm the fitting of the CTR, showing an in-plane expansion of the BSTO film at the interface and a contraction at the surface. (Copyright copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Evaluating U.S. States climate change initiatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, P.

2004-01-01

This paper evaluates sub-federal efforts to mitigate climate change in the United States through a range of climate-relevant initiatives, identifying principal trends and detailing climate-relevant initiatives in several states. These strategies include renewable electricity mandates, State and regional greenhouse gas emissions inventories, mandatory greenhouse gas emissions reporting, State greenhouse gas emissions caps, greenhouse gas emissions reductions from motor vehicles, and greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade programs for electric generation in several States. Many municipalities in the United States are also pursuing a range of climate-relevant initiatives, those actions are beyond the scope of this paper, but it should be noted they also influence state and national consideration of climate-relevant initiatives in the United States. (author)

Evaluating U.S. States climate change initiatives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, P

2004-07-01

This paper evaluates sub-federal efforts to mitigate climate change in the United States through a range of climate-relevant initiatives, identifying principal trends and detailing climate-relevant initiatives in several states. These strategies include renewable electricity mandates, State and regional greenhouse gas emissions inventories, mandatory greenhouse gas emissions reporting, State greenhouse gas emissions caps, greenhouse gas emissions reductions from motor vehicles, and greenhouse gas emissions cap-and-trade programs for electric generation in several States. Many municipalities in the United States are also pursuing a range of climate-relevant initiatives, those actions are beyond the scope of this paper, but it should be noted they also influence state and national consideration of climate-relevant initiatives in the United States. (author)

Effect of III-nitride polarization on V{sub OC} in p-i-n and MQW solar cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Namkoong, Gon; Boland, Patrick; Foe, Kurniawan; Latimer, Kevin [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Old Dominion University, Applied Research Center, 12050 Jefferson Avenue, Newport News, VA 23606 (United States); Bae, Si-Young; Shim, Jae-Phil; Lee, Dong-Seon [School of Information and Communications, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, 261 Cheomdan-gwagiro (Oryong-dong), Buk-gu, Gwangju 500-712 (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Seong-Ran [Korea Photonics Technology Institute, 971-35, Wolchul-dong, Buk-gu, Gwangju, 500-779 (Korea, Republic of); Doolittle, W. Alan [School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 (United States)

2011-02-15

We performed detailed studies of the effect of polarization on III-nitride solar cells. Spontaneous and piezoelectric polarizations were assessed to determine their impacts upon the open circuit voltages (V{sub OC}) in p-i(InGaN)-n and multi-quantum well (MQW) solar cells. We found that the spontaneous polarization in Ga-polar p-i-n solar cells strongly modifies energy band structures and corresponding electric fields in a way that degrades V{sub OC} compared to non-polar p-i-n structures. In contrast, we found that piezoelectric polarization in Ga-polar MQW structures does not have a large influence on V{sub OC} compared to non-polar MQW structures. (copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

Climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

The energy and temporal characteristics of orthogonal polarized waves generated by a transversely-excited pulsed CO/sub 2/ laser

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bertel, I.M.; Churakov, V.V.; Petukhov, V.O.; Prokopov, A.P.; Trushin, S.A.; Voitovich, A.P.

1980-01-01

The competition of orthogonally-polarized waves with various differences in the wave Q-factors and active medium pressures is studied. The possibility of controlling the parameters of a pulsed CO/sub 2/ laser by changing the value of the amplitude anisotropy of the cavity is demonstrated. The duration of the emission pulse for one of two orthogonal polarizations was reduced by virtually 50%.

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Determination of the K/sub L/0 → π-μ+ν/sub μ/ form factor xi(q2) by muon polarization measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, G.

1975-09-01

The polarization of the muon in the decay K 0 /sub L/ → π - μ + ν/sub μ/ was measured as a function of q 2 , the four-momentum transferred to the lepton pair. The kinematic information was used to compute the polarization expected on the basis of various assumed values of the form factor xi(q 2 ). By comparing the interpolated curve of the polarization as a function of xi(q 2 ) to the experimentally measured polarization, one has determined xi(q 2 ) as a function of q 2 . If one parameterizes the q 2 dependence of xi by xi(q 2 ) = xi(0) + Λ q 2 /m 2 /sub π/, then xi(0) = 0.178 +- 0.105 - 3.80 Λ

Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendoza, V.M.; Villanueva, E.E.; Garduno, R.; Adem, J. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

1995-12-31

General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendoza, V M; Villanueva, E E; Garduno, R; Adem, J [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

1996-12-31

General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

2011-01-01

This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

Effects of climate change on rice production and strategies for adaptation in southern China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jin, Z.; Ge, D.; Chen, H.; Fang, J. [Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences (China)

1995-12-31

The CERES-rice (Oryza sativa L.) model was calibrated and validated for nine sites in southern China to examine its suitability to model rice production in this area, using agronomic data from more than three successive years. After determining the genetic coefficients for the cultivars, the CERES-rice model was run a second time for the same locations for a time period of 20 to 30 yr. The model used local climate data (1958--1986) and doubled-CO{sub 2} climate change scenarios generated from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Geophysical Fluid dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) global climate models (GCMs), with and without supplemental irrigation(to model paddy and upland rice, respectively). The study estimated the potential impacts of climate change on rice production by comparing the base runs with the runs under the three doubled-CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios and it considered the physiological effects of CO{sub 2} on rice growth in each GCM scenario. Finally, the study examined several strategies for adapting to climate change.

Centrosymmetric [N(CH{sub 3}){sub 4}]{sub 2}TiF{sub 6} vs. noncentrosymmetric polar [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]{sub 2}TiF{sub 6}: A hydrogen-bonding effect on the out-of-center distortion of TiF{sub 6} octahedra

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Eun-ah [Department of Chemistry Education, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 156-756 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Dong Woo [Department of Chemistry, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 156-756 (Korea, Republic of); Ok, Kang Min, E-mail: kmok@cau.ac.kr [Department of Chemistry, Chung-Ang University, Seoul 156-756 (Korea, Republic of)

2012-11-15

The syntheses, structures, and characterization of organically templated zero-dimensional titanium fluoride materials, A{sub 2}TiF{sub 6} (A=[N(CH{sub 3}){sub 4}] or [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]), are reported. Phase pure samples of A{sub 2}TiF{sub 6} were synthesized by either solvothermal reaction method or a simple mixing method. While [N(CH{sub 3}){sub 4}]{sub 2}TiF{sub 6} crystallizes in a centrosymmetric space group, R-3, [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]{sub 2}TiF{sub 6} crystallizes in a noncentrosymmetric polar space group, Cm. The asymmetric out-of-center distortion of TiF{sub 6} octahedra in polar [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]{sub 2}TiF{sub 6} are attributable to the hydrogen-bonding interactions between the fluorine atoms in TiF{sub 6} octahedra and the nitrogen atoms in the [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]{sup +} cation. Powder second-harmonic generation (SHG) measurements on the [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]{sub 2}TiF{sub 6}, using 1064 nm radiation, indicate the material has SHG efficiency of 25 Multiplication-Sign that of {alpha}-SiO{sub 2}, which indicates an average nonlinear optical susceptibility, Left-Pointing-Angle-Bracket d{sub eff} Right-Pointing-Angle-Bracket {sub exp} of 2.8 pm/V. Additional SHG measurements reveal that the material is not phase-matchable (Type 1). The magnitudes of out-of-center distortions and dipole moment calculations for TiF{sub 6} octahedra will be also reported. - Graphical abstract: The out-of-center distortion of TiF{sub 6} octahedron in the polar noncentrosymmetric [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]{sub 2}TiF{sub 6} is attributable to the hydrogen-bonding interactions between the F in TiF{sub 6} octahedron and the H-N in the [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]{sup +}. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two titanium fluorides materials have been synthesized in high yields. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Hydrogen-bonds are crucial for the out-of-center distortion of TiF{sub 6} octahedra. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer [C(NH{sub 2}){sub 3}]{sub 2}TiF{sub 6} has a SHG efficiency of 25

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Berg, M.P.; Callaghan, T.V.; Kirby-Lambert, C.; Bjerke, J.W.

2015-01-01

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect

Switchable photovoltaic effect in Au/Bi{sub 0.9}La{sub 0.1}FeO{sub 3}/La{sub 0.7}Sr{sub 0.3}MnO{sub 3} heterostructures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gao, Rongli, E-mail: gaorongli2008@163.com [School of Metallurgy and Materials Engineering, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing, 401331 (China); Chongqing Key Laboratory of Nano/Micro Composite Materials and Devices, Chongqing, 401331 (China); Fu, Chunlin; Cai, Wei; Chen, Gang; Deng, Xiaoling; Cao, Xianlong [School of Metallurgy and Materials Engineering, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing, 401331 (China); Chongqing Key Laboratory of Nano/Micro Composite Materials and Devices, Chongqing, 401331 (China)

2016-09-15

Bi{sub 0.9}La{sub 0.1}FeO{sub 3} (BLFO) films were fabricated on La{sub 0.7}Sr{sub 0.3}MnO{sub 3} (LSMO)/SrTiO{sub 3}(STO)(001) substrates by pulsed laser deposition. The ferroelectric photovoltaic characteristics of Au/BLFO/LSMO heterostructures were studied under green light illumination. The open circuit voltage and short circuit current were observed to be positive and negative values under weak light illumination in the as-grown self-poled downward BLFO thin films, while they changed the signs when the light intensity is strong. On the contrary, this photovoltaic properties can be switched when the BLFO films were in poled up state. The photovoltaic effect was also strongly dependent on the polarization direction, incident light intensity and the distribution of oxygen vacancies. As a result, the sign of open circuit voltage and short circuit current could be independent of the direction of polarization. We believe that the switchable diode and photovoltaic effects can be explained well using the concepts of Schottky barrier modulation by polarization flipping and of oxygen vacancies and the distribution of oxygen vacancies at Au/BLFO or BLFO/LSMO interface. Our work provides deep insights into the nature of diode and photovoltaic effects in ferroelectric films, implying an effective approach to improve photovoltaic effect by tuning oxygen vacancies in ferroelectric materials. - Highlights: • Pure phase Bi{sub 0.9}La{sub 0.1}FeO{sub 3} thin films were grown using pulsed laser deposition. • The as grown films were self poled and the polarization direction is downward. • The switchable photovoltaic effect depend on ferroelectric polarization directions. • Photovoltaic effect can be switched by changing the intensity of incident radiation. • Depolarization field and oxygen vacancies together induce the photovoltaic effect.

Climate change freezing caused by overheating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrara, Vincenzo

2006-01-01

Based on the principal findings from an extensive study of the Arctic, the subject of an international symposium held in Reykjavik, Iceland, in November of 2004, the Arctic Region is heating up twice as fast as the average for the rest of the world. If warming continues at this pace, or even faster, the most significant effects of future climate changes will occur in the polar regions, and the greatest threat seems to be the collapse of the Gulf Stream [it

A study of proton polarization in ammonia (NH sub 3 ) under irradiation and annealing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Belyaev, A.A.; Get' man, V.A.; Dzyubak, A.P.; Karnaukhov, I.M.; Lukhanin, A.A.; Neffa, A.Yu.; Semisalov, I.L.; Sorokin, P.V.; Sporov, E.S.; Telegin, Yu.N.; Tolmachev, I.A.; Trotsenko, V.I. (Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology, Ukrainian SSR, Academy of Sciences, 310108 Kharkov, USSR (UA))

1989-05-05

The proton polarization in irradiated NH{sub 3} has been measured as a function of the irradiation dose and annealing temperature. The analysis of the experimental data obtained shows that under low-temperature'' irradiation along with the NH{sup {minus}}{sub 2} the e{sub tr}-radical is likely to be formed which contributes to the polarization build-up and relaxation and influences the radiation damage resistance of the target.

Response of a tundra ecosystem to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and CO{sub 2}-induced climate change. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oechel, W.C.

1996-11-01

The overall objective of this research was to document current patterns of CO{sub 2} flux in selected locations of the circumpolar arctic, and to develop the information necessary to predict how these fluxes may be affected by climate change. In fulfillment of these objectives, net CO{sub 2} flux was measured at several sites on the North Slope of Alaska during the 1990--94 growing season (June--August) to determine the local and regional patterns of seasonal CO{sub 2} exchange. In addition, net CO{sub 2} flux was measured in the Russian and Icelandic Arctic to determine if the patterns of CO{sub 2} exchange observed in Arctic Alaska were representative of the circumpolar Arctic, while cold-season CO{sub 2} flux measurements were carried out during the 1993--94 winter season to determine the magnitude of CO{sub 2} efflux not accounted for by the growing season measurements. Manipulations of soil water table depth and surface temperature, which were identified from the extensive measurements as being the most important variables in determining the magnitude and direction of net CO{sub 2} exchange, were carried out during the 1993--94 growing seasons in tussock and wet sedge tundra ecosystems. Finally, measurements of CH{sub 4} flux were also measured at several of the North Slope study sites during the 1990--91 growing seasons.

Antarctica and Global Environmental Change - Lessons from the Past Inform Climate Change Policy Today

Science.gov (United States)

Dunbar, R. B.; Scientific Team Of Odp Drilling Leg 318; Andrill Science Team

2011-12-01

Antarctic's continental ice, sea ice, and the broader Southern Ocean form a coupled and complex climate system that interacts in important yet poorly understood ways with the low and mid-latitudes. Because of its unusual sovereignty status and the fact that there is no indigenous human population, information about climate change in Antarctica penetrates the policy world less readily than findings from other regions. Yet, Antarctica's potential to impact climate change globally is disproportionately large. Vulnerable portions of the ice sheet may contribute up to 3 to 5 meters of sea level rise in the coming centuries, including significant amounts within the next 50 years. Loss of sea ice and other changes in the Southern Ocean may reduce oceanic uptake of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide, exacerbating global warming worldwide. Antarctica's impact on the Southern Hemisphere wind field is now well-established, contributing to ongoing decadal-scale perturbations in continental precipitation as well as major reorganizations of Southern Ocean food chains. Recent scientific drilling programs in the Ross Sea and off Wilkes Land, Antarctica, provide valuable insights into past climatic and biogeochemical change in Antarctica, insights of great relevance to international and national climate change policy. In this paper, we discuss polar amplification, sea level variability coupled to Antarctic ice volume, and response timescales as seen through the lens of past climate change. One key result emerging from multiple drilling programs is recognition of unanticipated dynamism in the Antarctic ice sheet during portions of the Pliocene (at a time with pCO2 levels equivalent to those anticipated late this century) as well as during "super-interglacials" of the Pleistocene. Evidence for substantially warmer ocean temperatures and reduced sea ice cover at these times suggests that polar amplification of natural climate variability, even under scenarios of relative small amounts

Effects of temporal changes in climate variables on crop production ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Climate variability and change have been implicated to have significant impacts on global and regional food production particularly the common stable food crops performance in tropical sub-humid climatic zone. However, the extent and nature of these impacts still remain uncertain. In this study, records of crop yields and ...

The Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC)

Science.gov (United States)

Oelhaf, Hermann; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Rapp, Markus; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Engel, Andreas; Boenisch, Harald

2015-04-01

The POLSTRACC mission aims at providing new scientific knowledge on the Arctic lowermost stratosphere (LMS) and upper troposphere under the present load of halogens and state of climate variables. POLSTRACC is the only HALO (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft, German Research Community) mission dedicated to study the UTLS at high latitudes several years after the last intensive Arctic campaigns. The scientific scope of POLSTRACC will be broadened by its combination with the SALSA (Seasonality of Air mass transport and origin in the Lowermost Stratosphere using the HALO Aircraft) and GW-LCYCLE (Gravity Wave Life Cycle Experiment, a BMBF/ROMIC project) missions, which address complementary scientific goals sharing the same HALO payload. POLSTRACC, SALSA and GW-LCYCLE will offer the unique opportunity to study the bottom of the polar vortex and the high-latitude UTLS along with their impact on lower latitudes throughout an entire winter/spring cycle. The POLSTRACC consortium includes national (KIT, Forschungszentrum Jülich, DLR, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Universities of Frankfurt, Heidelberg, Mainz and Wuppertal) and international partners (e.g. NASA). The payload for the combined POLSTRACC, SALSA and GW-LCYCLE campaigns comprises an innovative combination of remote sensing techniques providing 2- and 3-D distributions of temperature and a large number of substances, and precise in-situ instruments measuring T, O3, H2O, tracers of different lifetimes and chemically active species at the aircraft level with high time-resolution. Drop sondes will add information about temperature, humidity and wind in the atmosphere underneath the aircraft. The field campaign will be divided into three phases for addressing (i) the early polar vortex and its wide-scale vicinity in December 2015 (from Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany), (ii) the mid-winter vortex from January to March 2016 (from Kiruna, Sweden), and (iii) the late dissipating vortex and its wide

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

Carbon Dioxide Effects Research and Assessment Program. Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2//sup -/ induced climate change: a research agenda

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-12-01

In adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, mankind is unintentionally conducting a great biological and geophysical experiment. This experiment can be expected to increase scientific understanding of ecological systems and of the processes in the ocean and the atmosphere that partially determine world climate. But from the standpoint of governments and peoples, the major problem to be solved is to understand the nature of the impacts on societies of rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/), with the objective of avoiding or ameliorating unfavorable impacts and gaining most benefit from favorable impacts. The research program proposed herein is designed to provide the understanding needed to achieve this objective. It is based on a recognition of the distinctive characteristics of the CO/sub 2/ problem. It is concluded that three kinds of research on the consequences of rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and possible climatic changes are called for: assessment of risks; research to enhance beneficial effects and lessen harmful ones, where this is possible, and to slow down rates of carbon dioxide emission; and study of potential social and institutional responses to projected climatic changes.

Misconceptions Surrounding Climate Change: A Review of the Literature

Science.gov (United States)

Templeton, C. M.; McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.

2011-12-01

Misconceptions about climate change abound in every corner of society. The result manifests itself ranging from apprehension to total disregard for climate change conditions. According to several sources, however, a large percentage of the U. S. population do, indeed indicate some concern over global warming and climate change in general. These climate change misconceptions are numerous and include, to name a few; confusion between weather and climate, how greenhouse gases are affecting the earth, the effects of ozone depletion, earth's natural cycles, volcanic activity, nuclear waste and a host of other anthropogenic influences. This paper is a review of the current research literature relating to climate change misconceptions. These errant views will be addressed, cataloged, enumerated, and ranked to get a grasp on where the general population, politicians, scientists, and educators as well as students stand on informed climate change information. The categories where misconceptions arise have been identified in this literature review study and include the following: Natural cycles of the earth, ecological which include deforestation, urban development and any human intervention on the environment, educational - including teacher strategies, student understanding and textbook updates, emotional, ozone layer and its interactions, polar ice, political regulations, mandates and laws, pollution from human sources as well as from nature, religious beliefs and dogma and social beliefs. We suggest appropriate solutions for addressing these misconceptions, especially in the classroom setting, and broadly include available funding sources for work in climate change education. Some solutions include need for compilation of appropriate education resources and materials for public use, need for the development of educational materials that appropriately address the variety of publics, and need for programs that are conducting climate change education research and EPO work to

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability On Agriculture and Forestry in the Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Y.; Wang, C.; Wang, S.; Tibig, Lourdes V.

2005-01-01

Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover

Understanding climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

2007-01-01

Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Gao Xiaosheng

2009-01-01

@@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

Anthropogenic flank attack on polar bears: Interacting consequences of climate warming and pollutant exposure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bjørn Munro Jenssen

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus are subjected to several anthropogenic threats, climate warming and exposure to pollutants being two of these. For polar bears, one of the main effects of climate warming is limited access to prey, due to loss of their sea ice habitat. This will result in prolonged fasting periods and emaciation and condition related negative effects on survival and reproduction success. Prolonged fasting will result in increases of the tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs in polar bears, and thus increase the probability for POP levels to exceed threshold levels for effects on health, and thus on reproductive success and survival. There are clear potentials for interactions between impacts of climate warming and impacts of pollutant exposure on polar bears. It is likely that that fasting-induced increases of POPs will add to mortality rates and decrease reproductive success beyond effects caused by loss of habitat alone. However, there is a lack of studies that have addressed this. Thus, there is a need to focus on population effects of POP exposure in polar bears, and to consider such effects in relation to the effects of climate induced habitat loss.

Reconstructing Climate Change: The Model-Data Ping-Pong

Science.gov (United States)

Stocker, T. F.

2017-12-01

When Cesare Emiliani, the father of paleoceanography, made the first attempts at a quantitative reconstruction of Pleistocene climate change in the early 1950s, climate models were not yet conceived. The understanding of paleoceanographic records was therefore limited, and scientists had to resort to plausibility arguments to interpret their data. With the advent of coupled climate models in the early 1970s, for the first time hypotheses about climate processes and climate change could be tested in a dynamically consistent framework. However, only a model hierarchy can cope with the long time scales and the multi-component physical-biogeochemical Earth System. There are many examples how climate models have inspired the interpretation of paleoclimate data on the one hand, and conversely, how data have questioned long-held concepts and models. In this lecture I critically revisit a few examples of this model-data ping-pong, such as the bipolar seesaw, the mid-Holocene greenhouse gas increase, millennial and rapid CO2 changes reconstructed from polar ice cores, and the interpretation of novel paleoceanographic tracers. These examples also highlight many of the still unsolved questions and provide guidance for future research. The combination of high-resolution paleoceanographic data and modeling has never been more relevant than today. It will be the key for an appropriate risk assessment of impacts on the Earth System that are already underway in the Anthropocene.

Changes in Dimethyl Sulfide Oceanic Distribution due to Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cameron-Smith, P; Elliott, S; Maltrud, M; Erickson, D; Wingenter, O

2011-02-16

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is one of the major precursors for aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer over much of the remote ocean. Here they report on coupled climate simulations with a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemical model for DMS distribution and fluxes using present-day and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. They find changes in zonal averaged DMS flux to the atmosphere of over 150% in the Southern Ocean. This is due to concurrent sea ice changes and ocean ecosystem composition shifts caused by changes in temperature, mixing, nutrient, and light regimes. The largest changes occur in a region already sensitive to climate change, so any resultant local CLAW/Gaia feedback of DMS on clouds, and thus radiative forcing, will be particularly important. A comparison of these results to prior studies shows that increasing model complexity is associted with reduced DMS emissions at the equator and increased emissions at high latitudes.

Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gao, X.J.; Zhao, Z.C.; Ding, Y.H.; Huang, R.H.; Giorgi, F. [National Climate Centre, Beijing (China)

2001-07-01

Impacts of greenhouse effects (2 x CO{sub 2}) upon climate change over China as simulated by a regional climate model over China (RegCM / China) have been investigated. The model was based on RegCM2 and was nested to a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM model). Results of the control run (1 x CO{sub 2}) indicated that simulations of surface air temperature and precipitation in China by RegCM are much better than that by the global coupled model because of a higher resolution. Results of sensitive experiment by RegCM with 2 x CO{sub 2} showed that the surface air temperature over China might increase remarkably due to greenhouse effect, especially in winter season and in North China. Precipitation might also increase in most parts of China due to the CO{sub 2} doubling.

Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Tian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Leng, Guoyong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Kraucunas, Ian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

2018-03-01

Water management activities or flow regulations modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. We hypothesize that flow regulations change the sensitivity of river flow to climate change with respect to unmanaged water resources. Quantifying these changes in sensitivity could help elucidate the impacts of water management at different spatiotemporal scales and inform climate adaptation decisions. In this study, we compared the emergence of significant changes in natural and regulated river flow regimes across the Western United States from simulations driven by multiple climate models and scenarios. We find that significant climate change-induced alterations in natural flow do not cascade linearly through water management activities. At the annual time scale, 50% of the Hydrologic Unit Code 4 (HUC4) sub-basins over the Western U.S. regions tend to have regulated flow regime more sensitive to the climate change than natural flow regime. Seasonality analyses show that the sensitivity varies remarkably across the seasons. We also find that the sensitivity is related to the level of water management. For 35% of the HUC4 sub-basins with the highest level of water management, the summer and winter flows tend to show a heightened sensitivity to climate change due to the complexity of joint reservoir operations. We further demonstrate that the impacts of considering water management in models are comparable to those that arises from uncertainties across climate models and emission scenarios. This prompts further climate adaptation studies research about nonlinearity effects of climate change through water management activities.

Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

2014-12-01

In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

Science.gov (United States)

Pančić, M.; Hansen, P. J.; Tammilehto, A.; Lundholm, N.

2015-07-01

The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by ~ 20-50 % depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20-37 % compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.

Climate Comics: polar research in a cartoon form

Science.gov (United States)

Courville, Z.; Carbaugh, S.; Defrancis, G.; Donegan, R.; Brown, C.; Perovich, D. K.; Richter-Menge, J.

2013-12-01

Climate Comics is a collaborative outreach effort between the Montshire Museum of Science, in Norwich, VT, the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) research staff, and freelance artist and recent graduate of the Center for Cartoon Studies in White River Junction, VT, Sam Carbaugh. The project involves the cartoonist, the education staff from the museum, and researchers from CRREL creating a series of comic books with polar science and research themes, including sea ice monitoring, sea ice albedo, ice cores, extreme microbial activity, and stories and the process of fieldwork. The aim of the comic series is to provide meaningful science information in a comic-format that is both informative and fun, while highlighting current polar research work done at the lab. The education staff at the Montshire Museum develops and provides a series of hands-on, inquiry-based activity descriptions to complement each comic book, and CRREL researchers provide science background information and reiterative feedback about the comic books as they are being developed. Here, we present the motivation for using the comic-book medium to present polar research topics, the process involved in creating the comics, some unique features of the series, and the finished comic books themselves. Cartoon illustrating ways snow pack can be used to determine past climate information.

Climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1990-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

2007-01-01

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

A new polar symmetry of huebnerite (MnWO{sub 4}) with ferrodistortive domains

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, S.H., E-mail: sohyun.park@lmu.de [Sektion Kristallographie, Department für Geo-und Umweltwissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Theresienstraße 41, 80333 München (Germany); Mihailova, B. [Mineralogisch-Petrographisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Grindelallee 48, 20146 Hamburg (Germany); Pedersen, B. [Forschungs-Neutronenquelle Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRM II), Technische Universität München, Lichtenbergstraße 1, 85748 Garching (Germany); Paulmann, C. [Mineralogisch-Petrographisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Grindelallee 48, 20146 Hamburg (Germany); HASYLAB, DESY, Notkestr. 85, 22603 Hamburg (Germany); Behal, D. [Sektion Kristallographie, Department für Geo-und Umweltwissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Theresienstraße 41, 80333 München (Germany); Forschungs-Neutronenquelle Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRM II), Technische Universität München, Lichtenbergstraße 1, 85748 Garching (Germany); Gattermann, U. [Sektion Kristallographie, Department für Geo-und Umweltwissenschaften, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Theresienstraße 41, 80333 München (Germany); Hochleitner, R. [Mineralogische Staatssammlung München, Theresienstrasse 41, 80333 Munich (Germany)

2015-11-15

Large-size single-crystal samples of huebnerite natural multiferroic MnWO{sub 4} were analyzed by neutron and synchrotron X-ray single-crystal diffraction as well as by polarized Raman spectroscopy. Both neutron and X-ray diffraction analyzes reveal polar space-group symmetry P2 for the nuclear structure of huebnerite via the detection of weak reflections h0l (l=odd) forbidden for the gliding plane c. Renninger scans of the reflection 301 on the neutron single-crystal diffractometer RESI (FRM-II) could confirm the absence of the gliding plane c in both para- and antiferromagnetic states of huebnerite. The symmetry breaking could be explained by structure analyzes with neutron single crystal diffraction data at 293 K revealing that two Mn atoms in P2 are displaced independently along the b axis from their equilibrium position at a polar point site, C{sub 2} in P2/c. Micro X-ray diffraction and Raman-scattering mapping reveal a ferrodistortive domain texture in the room-temperature paramagnetic state of huebnerite, which is attributed to P2 domain formation through a proper ∼180° rotation about the reciprocal-space axis c*. - Graphical abstract: Schematic presentation of polar atomic shifts (arrows) in P2 from the respective equivalent sites (spheres) in P2/c at the boundary of two 180°-in-plane micro twins. - Highlights: • Neutron and X-ray diffraction analyzes reveal the polar symmetry P2 for MnWO{sub 4}. • Raman mapping shows ferrodistortive domains in its RT paramagnetic state. • These observations are explained by the hidden polar site C{sub 2} for Mn atoms.

Carbon Dioxide Effects Research and Assessment Program. Workshop on environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1980-10-01

The Workshop was part of a process of elucidating areas of uncertainty where research is needed before meaningful forecasts and sound decisions can be made about the CO/sub 2/ issue. The conferees were divided into five panels dealing with the ocean and the cryosphere: the less managed biosphere; the managed biosphere (chiefly agricultural, forest, and grazing lands); the ways society and its institutions might respond to climate changes; and issues involving the economic and geopolitical consequences of CO/sub 2/ build-up. Also, 28 papers or discussion drafts dealing with a wide variety of topics were contributed to the conference.

Climate for Change?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wejs, Anja

Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

Climate variability and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rind, D.

1991-01-01

Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

2012-06-01

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

Increasing the value of climate finance in an uncertain environment: Diaspora financial resources as a source of climate finance for Sub-Saharan Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumisani Chirambo

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Climate change may create and increase world inequality and social conflicts. Moreover, regardless of the various developments in science and technology, there are still uncertainties regarding the precise extent and consequences of climate change. Additionally, financial resources to support climate change mitigation, adaptation and capacity building programmes in Africa may be considered to be far from satisfactory in terms of their size, source and distribution. Global policymakers are therefore keen to discover how climate finance resources can be mobilised from a wide variety of sources, instruments and channels to complement public sources. To address this knowledge gap, this paper undertook an analysis of project reports, policy reviews, policy briefs, and academic literature reviews on the barriers and opportunities for private investments in climate change programmes. The paper highlights that Sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to mobilise over US $100 billion annually from its diaspora population, and these funds can be channelled towards climate change investments and programmes or leveraged with other conventional climate finance modalities. This paper therefore provides insights into the measures that can be undertaken in order to enable Africa’s diaspora to become important financiers of climate change programmes.

Specific features of the domain structure of (Gd sub 1-x Nd sub x ) sub 2 (MoO sub 4 ) sub 3 crystals. Osobennosti domennoj struktury kristallov (Gd sub 1-x Nd sub x ) sub 2 (MoO sub 4 ) sub 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bryzgalov, A N; Slepchenko, B M; Virachev, B P [Cherepovetskij Gosudarstvennyj Pedagogicheskij Inst., Cherepovets (USSR)

1989-11-01

Formation of the domain structures by sample transfer into thermodynamically metastable state using a simultaneous effect of electric field and temperature change is investigated in Gd{sub 1.7}Nd{sub 0.3}(MoO{sub 4}){sub 3} monocrystals (GMO). Some new results obtained under investigations into GMO domain structure using neodymium by means of hydrothermal etching and polarization-optical method are presented.

High-x sub T single-spin asymmetry in. pi. sup 0 and. eta. production at x sub F =0 by 200 GeV polarized antiprotons and protons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, D L; Akchurin, N; Belikov, N I; Bystricky, J; Corcoran, M D; Cossairt, J D; Cranshaw, J; Derevschikov, A A; En' yo, H; Funahashi, H; Goto, Y; Grachov, O A; Grosnick, D P; Hill, D A; Imai, K; Itow, Y; Iwatani, K; Krueger, K W; Kuroda, K; Laghai, M; Lehar, F; Lesquen, A de; Lopiano, D; Luehring, F C; Maki, T; Makino, S; Masaike, A; Matulenko, Yu A; Meschanin, A P; Michalowicz, A; Miller, D H; Miyake, K; Nagamine, T; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Nessi, M; Nguyen, C; Nurushev, S B; Ohashi, Y; Onel, Y; Patalakha, D I; Pauletta, G; Penzo, A; Read, A L; Roberts, J B; Van Rossum, L; Rykov, V L; Saito, N; Salvato, G; Schiavon, P; Skeens, J; Solovyanov, V L; Spinka, H; Takashima, R; Takeutchi, F; Tamura, N; Tanaka, N; Underwood, D G; Vasiliev, A N; Villari, A; White, J L; Yamashita, S; Yokosawa, A; Yoshida, T; Zanetti, A [T.W. Bonner Nuclear Lab., Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States) Dept. of Physics, Univ. Iowa, Iowa City, IA (Unite; FNAL E704 Collaboration

1992-02-20

A measurement of the single-spin asymmetry A{sub N} in p{up arrow}+p{yields}{pi}{sup 0}+X at 200 GeV with x{sub F}=0 shows a transition in the production process from a 'low-x{sub T}' regime with A{sub N}=0, through an intermediate region of negative asymmetry, to a 'high-x{sub T}' regime with A{sub N}>0.3. This transition occurs at x{sub T}{approx equal}0.4 and is consistent with x{sub T}-scaling of A{sub N} in pion production using polarized beams or targets from {radical}-s=5.2 to 19.4 GeV. Results for A{sub N} in {eta} production by polarized protons and in {pi}{sup 0} production by polarized antiprotons are also presented. (orig.).

Enhancement of polar crystalline phase formation in transparent PVDF-CaF{sub 2} composite films

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Goo; Ha, Jong-Wook, E-mail: jongwook@krict.re.kr; Sohn, Eun-Ho; Park, In Jun; Lee, Soo-Bok

2016-12-30

Highlights: • The crystalline phase in transparent PVDF-CaF{sub 2} composite films was investigated. • CaF{sub 2} promoted the formation of polar crystalline phases in PVDF matrix. • Ordered γ-phase was obtained by thermal treatment of as-cast films at the vicinity of its melting temperature. - Abstract: We consider the influence of calcium fluoride (CaF{sub 2}) nanoparticles on the crystalline phase formation of poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) for the first time. The transparent PVDF-CaF{sub 2} composite films were prepared by casting on PET substrates using N,N-dimethylacetamide (DMAc) as a solvent. It was found that CaF{sub 2} promoted the formation of polar crystalline phase of PVDF in composites, whereas nonpolar α-phase was dominant in the neat PVDF film prepared at the same condition. The portion of polar crystalline phase increased in proportional to the weight fraction of CaF{sub 2} in the composite films up to 10 wt%. Further addition of CaF{sub 2} suppressed completely the α-phase formation. Polar crystalline phase observed in as-cast composite films was a mixture of β- and γ-polymorph structures. It was also shown that much ordered γ-phase could be obtained through thermal treatment of as-cast PVDF-CaF{sub 2} composite film at the temperatures above the melting temperature of the composite films, but below that of γ-phase.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O<sub>3sub> level and of 0.3 mg m³ in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO<sub>2sub>, H<sub>2sub>O>2sub>, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O<sub>3sub>, and increases in CH<sub>4sub> and VOCs. Increasing NO<sub>x> and O<sub>3sub> levels enhances the nitrogen and O<sub>3sub> deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m² . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

Climate Change and Environmental assessments: Issues in an African Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dalfelt, Arne; Naess, Lars Otto

1997-12-31

The present report discusses the potential for integrating climate change issues into environmental assessments of development actions, with an emphasis on sub-Sahara Africa. The study is motivated by the fact that future climate change could have significant adverse impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Africa. Yet, to date global change issues, including climate change, have been largely overlooked in the process of improving environmental assessment procedures and methodologies. It is argued that although emissions of greenhouse gases in Africa are negligible today, it is highly relevant to include this aspect in the planning of long-term development strategies. The report discusses potential areas of conflicts and synergies between climate change and development goals. The general conclusion is that environmental assessments could be an appropriate tool for addressing climate change issues, while there are still several obstacles to its practical implementation. Four priority areas are suggested for further work: (1) Environmental accounting, (2) harmonization and standard-setting, (3) implementation, and (4) risk management. 82 refs., 5 figs., 11 tabs.

Climate changes and biodiversity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bertelsmeier, C.

2011-01-01

As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. F. Lam

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM<sub>2.5sub> concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone, the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction, except for the Northeast area, where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10 % or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8 over the Eastern United States. For PM<sub>2.5sub>, the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect, where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM<sub>2.5sub> reductions. The annual average 24-h PM<sub>2.5sub> of the future-year condition was found to be about 40 % lower than the one from the present-year condition, of which 60 % of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO<sub>4sub> and NO<sub>3sub> particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5–10 % or 3–5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely, it reduces the annual average PM<sub>2.5sub> by 5 % or 1.0 μg m⁻³ in the Southeast region.

Reconstructing Holocene (sub)tropical climate and cyclone variability using geochemical proxies

OpenAIRE

van Soelen, E.E.

2012-01-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for a warming trend that cannot easily be reversed. This warming trend is expected to have a large impact on global weather patterns and local environmental conditions, for example by changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise and increasing tropical cyclone activity. Therefore, (sub)tropical coastal regions are expected to be heavily impacted by future climate change. To improve our understanding of the possible consequences of futu...

Climatic change. Prevent or endure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aalbers, R.F.T.; Vollebergh, H.R.J.

1996-01-01

The question is which policy must be pursued taking into account the uncertainty of the consequences of climatic change. It appears there is a tendency to use that uncertainty in arguments to postpone measures to fight the possible consequences of climatic change and wait for learning effects to gain more knowledge. The authors, however, contend that such a policy strategy is sub-optimal. Policy should not aim at discovering certainties on which policy can be based. Instead, policy should focus on the question how we wish to deal with known uncertainties. The application of the so-called precautionary principle seems to be the best optimal policy strategy. Supplementary reasons to plead for a strict use of that principle are endogenous risk (expected damage is higher than in case of exogenous risk) in relation to the possibility of threshold effects (effects as a result of sudden events) and the ambiguity aversion of the society concerning the lack of information, or a combination of both. 1 fig., 14 refs

The anxieties of a science diplomat: field coproduction of climate knowledge and the rise and fall of Hans Ahlmann's polar warming".

Science.gov (United States)

Sörlin, Sverker

2011-01-01

In the decades between the world wars there were several attempts to document and explain perceived tendencies of atmospheric warming. Hans Ahlmann, a seminal figure in modern glaciology and a science policy adviser and diplomat, constructed a theory of "polar warming" using field results from glacier melting in the Arctic. This article aims to link the rise and fall of "polar warming" with Ahlmann's style of fieldwork. In Ahlmann's view, fieldwork should (1) enhance credibility of polar climate science by emulating laboratory methods and (2) secure knowledge in remote places through collaboration with local residents and fieldworkers. The bodily nature of this style of knowledge production turned out to be an asset in establishing Ahlmann's theory of polar warming but ultimately proved nonresilient to theories of anthropogenic climate change, which became influential from the 1950s onward.

Coupled effects of atmospheric N/sub 2/O and O/sub 3/ on the earth's climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, W C; Sze, N D

1980-08-07

Increased application of nitrogen fertilizer could perturb the atmospheric nitrogen cycle and might lead to a possible increase in atmospheric N/sub 2/O. N/sub 2/O plays an important role in stratospheric chemistry as well as in the global radiation budget. Recent studies suggest that perturbation of local ozone could also significantly affect the global climate. Here we show that a doubling in the present day N/sub 2/O level might significantly perturb the distribution of O/sub 3/ and HNO/sub 3/, and that the associated climatic feedbacks from O/sub 3/ and HNO/sub 3/ perturbations could contribute as much as 0.23 K warming of the surface temperature, in addition to 0.44 K directly caused by N/sub 2/O doubling.

The Role of Sub-National Actors in Climate Change Policy. The Case of Tokyo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roppongi, Hitomi

2016-06-01

Tokyo is known as a pioneer throughout the history of Japan's environmental policy, often being compared to California in the United States or Paris in France. Following the global trend of growing local initiatives tackling climate change, Tokyo introduced a cap-and-trade scheme in 2010 ahead of a national implementation. The Tokyo Cap-and-Trade Program is the first of its kind that regulates CO_2 emissions from all business sectors, where energy consumers are defined in terms of the business establishments they own. Tokyo's initiative is largely seen as a reaction to the modest national commitment, following the tradition of center-local rivalry. This study first explains the centre-local relationship in the history of Japan's environmental governance. It then analyzes the development of the Tokyo's flagship climate policy and its implications for national and other sub-national governments in Japan. The tactics used by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government to overcome business opposition typically seen in the introduction of GHG control, and future policy challenges are also discussed. The study finds that Tokyo's policy encourages behavioral changes and technological improvement in the business sector, going a step beyond the existing culture of energy conservation in Japan. An emission trading scheme is often associated with the collapse of carbon markets and the 'money game', rather than a practical tool to reduce CO_2 emissions, but the Tokyo Cap-and-Trade Program has demonstrated a policy impact that recasts such an image. A known case of policy diffusion to Saitama prefecture, an immediate neighbor of Tokyo with the fifth largest population in Japan, is also discussed to elaborate on the potential domestic diffusion of the policy. (author)

Parliamentary role and relationship in effectively addressing climate change issues - Swaziland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, R

2011-01-15

Climate change is defined as any long-term and significant change in the expected patterns of a specific region's average weather for an appropriately significant period of time. It is the result of several factors, including Earth?s dynamic processes, external forces, and more recently, human activity. External factors that shape climate include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in Earth's orbit, and variations in the level of greenhouse gas concentrations. Evidence of climatic change taken from a variety of sources can, in turn, be used to reconstruct past climates. Most climate evidence is inferred from changes in key climate indicators, including vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea-level change, and glacial geology. Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social, and economic threats facing the planet today. In developing countries, Swaziland included, climate change will likely have a significant impact on the livelihoods and living conditions of the poor. It is a particular threat to the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and progress in sustainable development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Increasing temperatures and shifting rain patterns across Africa reduce access to food and create effects that impact regions, farming systems, households, and individuals in varying ways. Additional global changes, including changed trade patterns and energy policies, have the potential to exacerbate the negative effects of climate change on some of these systems and groups.

Reduce land degradation, climate change and adaptation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sciortino, Maurizio

2015-01-01

The land degradation and desertification are a serious threat to the sustainability of production food in many areas of the Earth. the methods ecosystems and the concomitant effects management of climate change are altering the processes physical, chemical and biological processes that regulate the complex balance of terrestrial ecosystems and soil particularly in areas climatically characterized by conditions arid, semi-arid and dry sub humid areas. The RIO + 20 Conference has recognized the risk of desertification and it proposed for the post 2015 agenda the goal of a world 'Land Degradation Neutral'.The challenge of adaptation to changes climate will require a greater involvement scientific research in support of conservation and use of natural resources both in Italy and in all contexts where the challenge of sustainability of development is more urgent. [it

Climate effect of ozone changes caused by present and future air traffic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ponater, M.; Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Roeckner, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1998-08-01

The potential of aircraft-induced ozone changes to significantly enhance the climate impact of air traffic due to CO{sub 2}-emissions is investigated by means of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. Results from several numerical experiments are presented, based on ozone increase patterns for 1992 aviation and on a future scenario for the year 2015. The climate signal is statistically significant for both time slices. Its strength is of comparable magnitude to that arising from aircraft CO{sub 2} emissions, thus meaning a nonnegligible contribution to the total effect. There are indications of a characteristic signature of the aircraft ozone related temperature response pattern, distinctly different from that typically associated with the increase of a well-mixed greenhouse gas. Likewise, the climate sensitivity to nonuniform ozone changes including a strong concentration perturbation at the tropopause appears to he higher than the climate sensitivity to uniform changes of a greenhouse gas. In a hierarchy of experiments based on an aircraft-related ozone perturbation with fixed structure (but increasing amplitude), the climate signal depends in a nonlinear way from the radiative forcing. (orig.) 44 refs.

Rodent communities in the sub-polar Ural mountains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berdyugin, K. I.

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Distribution of the rodent communities in the Sub-polar Urals is analysed. This part of the range, between 64° and 66°N, includes the highest peaks, is very scarcely settled and has been rarely studied. However, the area is interesting for biogeography, being a border zone separating European and Siberian lowland faunas. Comparison of results with those from expeditions undertaken in 1927 and in 1972, allows to evaluate changing trends in the local rodent communities, and to relate these trends to changes in the environmental conditions. The results help to emphasize the barrier role played by Sub-polar Urals for the species of rodents inhabiting both sides of the range, and also show the shifting of southern rodent forms northwards, or the moving upwards of other lowland species. This could be seen as an additional evidence of current climate warming trends.

[fr]
On analyse la répartition des communautés de rongeurs dans les Durais Subpolaires, une section de la chaîne comprise entre les 64° et les 66° de latitude N. Cette partie est très peu peuplée, elle possède les pics les plus hauts de la chaîne et a été rarement étudiée. Il s'agit d'une région intéressante, car c'est la frontière entre les plaines européennes et les plaines orientales de la Sibérie. En comparant les observations effectuées en 1927 et en 1972 avec celles des dernières années, on peut voir les tendances de changement des groupements de rongeurs de la région, et les interpréter en fonction des changements dans l'environnement. Les résultats permettent de mieux comprendre le rôle de barrière qui jouent les Durais Subpolaires pour les espèces de rongeurs situées d'un coté et d'autre de la chaîne. Aussi, ils permettent de verifier le déplacement vers le nord deformes méridionales et l'élévation en altitude d'autres, ce qui pourrait être vu comme une preuve additionnelle de la tendance au réchauffement global.
[es]
Se

Global climate change and introduced species in United States forests

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simberloff, D. [Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, 37996 Knoxville, TN (United States)

2000-11-15

Introduced species already cause billions of dollars of damage annually in United States forests, plus massive ecological damage whose economic value has often not been estimated. The variety of impacts is staggering and includes herbivory, predation, disease, parasitism, competition, habitat destruction, hybridization, and changed disturbance regimes and nutrient cycles. How global climate change will affect these impacts has scarcely been assessed. Range changes of existing introduced species will be prominent, as many species' biogeographic ranges are set primarily by climate. Similarly, some species that might otherwise not have survived will be able to establish populations in a changed climate. It is more difficult to predict what the impacts of the introduced species will be. What is most needed are studies of the combined impacts of changing climate, CO{sub 2}, and nutrients. Certain aspects of the biology of introduced species, such as evolution and autonomous dispersal, greatly complicate the prediction of spread and impact of introduced species.

High spin-polarization in ultrathin Co{sub 2}MnSi/CoPd multilayers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galanakis, I., E-mail: galanakis@upatras.gr

2015-03-01

Half-metallic Co{sub 2}MnSi finds a broad spectrum of applications in spintronic devices either in the form of thin films or as spacer in multilayers. Using state-of-the-art ab-initio electronic structure calculations we exploit the electronic and magnetic properties of ultrathin Co{sub 2}MnSi/CoPd multilayers. We show that these heterostructures combine high values of spin-polarization at the Co{sub 2}MnSi spacer with the perpendicular magnetic anisotropy of binary compounds such as CoPd. Thus they could find application in spintronic/magnetoelectronic devices. - Highlights: • Ab-initio study of ultrathin Co{sub 2}MnSi/CoPd multilayers. • Large values of spin-polarization at the Fermi are retained. • Route for novel spintronic/magnetoelectronic devices.

Active Climate Stabilization: Practical Physics-Based Approaches to Prevention of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Teller, E.; Hyde, T.; Wood, L.

2002-04-18

We offer a case for active technical management of the radiative forcing of the temperatures of the Earth's fluid envelopes, rather than administrative management of atmospheric greenhouse gas inputs, in order to stabilize both the global- and time-averaged climate and its mesoscale features. We suggest that active management of radiative forcing entails negligible--indeed, likely strongly negative--economic costs and environmental impacts, and thus best complies with the pertinent mandate of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We propose that such approaches be swiftly evaluated in sub-scale in the course of an intensive international program.

Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, Deborah Bowne [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

1993-01-01

Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled CO<sub>2sub> climates was estimated.

Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

CERN Document Server

2012-01-01

This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Sakellari, Maria

2015-10-01

Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Countermeasures of adaptation to climate change: establishment and application for implementation matrix

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jiang Dongmei; Liu Bin

2009-01-01

In the conceptual framework of adaptation policy assessment to climate change,adaptation measures can be categorized as two groupsL:facilitation and implementation.Facilitation measures refers to activities that enhance adaptive capacity,while implementation refers to activities that actually avoid adverse climate impacts on a system by reducing its exposure or sensitivity to climatic hazards,or by moderating relevant non-climatic factors.This paper aims to establish a matrix of implementation measures of adaptation to climate change,through four different ways how adaptation can influence the relevant elements of climate change:reducing the exposure,reducing the sensitivity,alleviating the adverse impacts and reducing the negative non-climatic factors,and then further discuss the particular implementation measures of adaptation to climate change,through application studies on the selected sub-systems,intend to organize the disordered implementation measures in existent,and put forward some new mea sures under the guidance of this matrix,which could enrich and promote the system and content of implementation measures of adaptation.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Climate scenarios for semi-arid and sub-humid regions. A comparison of climate scenarios for the dryland regions, in West Africa from 1990 to 2050

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van den Born GJ; Schaeffer M; Leemans R; NOP

2001-01-01

The identification of climate scenarios for dryland areas in Sub-Saharan West Africa is part of a project to assess the impact of climate change on water availability, agriculture and food security in drylands (ICCD-project). The project is financed by Netherlands Research Programme on Global Air

Observed changes in extremes of daily rainfall and temperature in Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Worku, Gebrekidan; Teferi, Ermias; Bantider, Amare; Dile, Yihun T.

2018-02-01

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kokorin, A.O.; Nazarov, I.M.; Lelakin, A.L. [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1995-12-31

The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kokorin, A O; Nazarov, I M; Lelakin, A L [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1996-12-31

The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades

Science.gov (United States)

von Storch, H.; Feser, F.; Weisse, R.; Zahn, M.

2009-12-01

Regional climate models, which are constrained by large scale information (spectral nudging) provided by re-analyses, allow for the construction of a mostly homogeneous description of regional weather statistics since about 1950. The potential of this approach has been demonstrated for Northern Europe. That data set, named CoastDat, does not only contain hourly data on atmospheric variables, in particular wind, but also on marine weather, i.e., short term water level, current and sea state variations. Another example is the multi-decadal variability of Polar Lows in the subarctic waters. The utility of such data sets is broad, from risk assessments related to coastal wind and wave conditions, assessment of determining the causes for regional climate change, a-posteriori analysis of the efficiency of environmental legislation (example: lead). In the paper, the methodology is outlined, examples are provided and the utility of the product discussed.

Southern voices on climate policy choices: Analysis of and lessons learned from civil society advocacy on climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reid, Hannah; Ampomah, Gifty; Prera, Maria Isabel Olazabal; Rabbani, Golam; Zvigadza, Shepard

2012-05-15

This report provides an analysis of the tools and tactics advocacy groups use to influence policy responses to climate change at international, regional, national and sub-national levels. More than 20 climate networks and their member organisations have contributed to the report with their experiences of advocacy on climate change, including over 70 case studies from a wide range of countries - including many of the poorest - in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific. These advocacy activities primarily target national governments, but also international and regional processes, donors and the private sector. Analyses and case studies show how civil society plays key roles in pushing for new laws, programmes, policies or strategies on climate change, in holding governments to account on their commitments; in identifying the lack of joined-up government responses to climate change; and in ensuring that national policy making does not forget the poor and vulnerable. The report is the first joint product of the Southern Voices Capacity Building Programme, or for short: Southern Voices on Climate Change.

Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Jeffrey A; van den Berg, Daphne; Ellers, Jacintha; Kampen, Remko; Crowther, Thomas W; Roessingh, Peter; Verheggen, Bart; Nuijten, Rascha J M; Post, Eric; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Stirling, Ian; Balgopal, Meena; Amstrup, Steven C; Mann, Michael E

2018-04-01

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a "poster species" for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere.

Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Shahcheraghi Reservoir Inflow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. E. Banihabib

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Forecasting the inflow to the reservoir is important issues due to the limited water resources and the importance of optimal utilization of reservoirs to meet the need for drinking, industry and agriculture in future time periods. In the meantime, ignoring the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters and water resources in long-term planning of water resources cause inaccuracy. It is essential to assess the impact of climate change on reservoir operation in arid regions. In this research, climate change impact on hydrological and meteorological variables of the Shahcheragh dam basin, in Semnan Province, was studied using an integrated model of climate change assessment. Materials and Methods: The case study area of this study was located in Damghan Township, Semnan Province, Iran. It is an arid zone. The case study area is a part of the Iran Central Desert. The basin is in 12 km north of the Damghan City and between 53° E to 54° 30’ E longitude and 36° N to 36° 30’ N latitude. The area of the basin is 1,373 km2 with average annual inflow around 17.9 MCM. Total actual evaporation and average annual rainfall are 1,986 mm and 137 mm, respectively. This case study is chosen to test proposed framework for assessment of climate change impact hydrological and meteorological variables of the basin. In the proposed model, LARS-WG and ANN sub-models (7 sub models with a combination of different inputs such as temperature, precipitation and also solar radiation were used for downscaling daily outputs of CGCM3 model under 3 emission scenarios, A2, B1 and A1B and reservoir inflow simulation, respectively. LARS-WG was tested in 99% confidence level before using it as downscaling model and feed-forward neural network was used as raifall-runoff model. Moreover, the base period data (BPD, 1990-2008, were used for calibration. Finally, reservoir inflow was simulated for future period data (FPD of 2015-2044 and

Isoliquiritigenin, a flavonoid from licorice, blocks M2 macrophage polarization in colitis-associated tumorigenesis through downregulating PGE{sub 2} and IL-6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Haixia [Department of Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071 (China); Zhang, Xinhua [Department of Liver, Biliary And Pancreatic Tumors, Hubei Cancer Hospital, Wuhan 430079 (China); Chen, Xuewei; Li, Ying; Ke, Zunqiong [Department of Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071 (China); Tang, Tian [Department of Oncology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430060 (China); Chai, Hongyan [Center for Gene Diagnosis, Zhongnan Hospital, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071 (China); Guo, Austin M. [Department of Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071 (China); Department of Pharmacology, New York Medical College, Valhalla, NY 10595 (United States); Chen, Honglei, E-mail: hl-chen@whu.edu.cn [Department of Pathology and Pathophysiology, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071 (China); Yang, Jing, E-mail: yangjingliu2013@163.com [Department of Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071 (China)

2014-09-15

M2 macrophage polarization is implicated in colorectal cancer development. Isoliquiritigenin (ISL), a flavonoid from licorice, has been reported to prevent azoxymethane (AOM) induced colon carcinogenesis in animal models. Here, in a mouse model of colitis-associated tumorigenesis induced by AOM/dextran sodium sulfate (DSS), we investigated the chemopreventive effects of ISL and its mechanisms of action. Mice were treated with AOM/DSS and randomized to receive either vehicle or ISL (3, 15 and 75 mg/kg). Tumor load, histology, immunohistochemistry, and gene and protein expressions were determined. Intragastric administration of ISL for 12 weeks significantly decreased colon cancer incidence, multiplicity and tumor size by 60%, 55.4% and 42.6%, respectively. Moreover, ISL inhibited M2 macrophage polarization. Such changes were accompanied by downregulation of PGE{sub 2} and IL-6 signaling. Importantly, depletion of macrophages by clodronate (Clod) or zoledronic acid (ZA) reversed the effects of ISL. In parallel, in vitro studies also demonstrated that ISL limited the M2 polarization of RAW264.7 cells and mouse peritoneal macrophages with concomitant inactivation of PGE{sub 2}/PPARδ and IL-6/STAT3 signaling. Conversely, exogenous addition of PGE{sub 2} or IL-6, or overexpression of constitutively active STAT3 reversed ISL-mediated inhibition of M2 macrophage polarization. In summary, dietary flavonoid ISL effectively inhibits colitis-associated tumorigenesis through hampering M2 macrophage polarization mediated by the interplay between PGE{sub 2} and IL-6. Thus, inhibition of M2 macrophage polarization is likely to represent a promising strategy for chemoprevention of colorectal cancer. - Highlights: • Isoliquiritigenin (ISL) prevents colitis-associated tumorigenesis. • ISL inhibits M2 macrophage polarization in vivo and in vitro. • ISL inhibits PGE{sub 2} and IL-6 signaling in colitis-associated tumorigenesis. • ISL may be an attractive candidate agent for

Interfacial charge-induced polarization switching in Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}/Pb(Zr,Ti)O{sub 3} bi-layer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yu Jin; Park, Min Hyuk; Jeon, Woojin; Kim, Han Joon; Moon, Taehwan; Lee, Young Hwan; Kim, Keum Do; Hyun, Seung Dam; Hwang, Cheol Seong, E-mail: cheolsh@snu.ac.kr [Department of Materials Science & Engineering and Inter-University Semiconductor Research Center, College of Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-12-14

Detailed polarization switching behavior of an Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}/Pb(Zr,Ti)O{sub 3} (AO/PZT) structure is examined by comparing the phenomenological thermodynamic model to the experimental polarization–voltage (P-V) results. Amorphous AO films with various thicknesses (2–10 nm) were deposited on the polycrystalline 150-nm-thick PZT film. The thermodynamic calculation showed that the transition from the ferroelectric-like state to the paraelectric-like state with increasing AO thickness occurs at ∼3 nm thickness. This paraelectric-like state should have exhibited a negative capacitance effect without permanent polarization switching if no other adverse effects are involved. However, experiments showed typical ferroelectric-like hysteresis loops where the coercive voltage increased with the increasing AO thickness, which could be explained by the carrier injection through the thin AO layer and trapping of the carriers at the AO/PZT interface. The fitting of the experimental P-V loops using the thermodynamic model considering the depolarization energy effect showed that trapped charge density was ∼±0.1 Cm{sup −2} and critical electric field at the Pt electrode/AO interface, at which the carrier transport occurs, was ∼±10 MV/cm irrespective of the AO thickness. Energy band model at each electrostatic state along the P-V loop was provided to elucidate correlation between macroscopic polarization and internal charge state of the stacked films.

Climate change and genetically modified insecticidal plants. Plant-herbivore interactions and secondary chemistry of Bt Cry1Ac-toxin producing oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) under elevated CO{sub 2} or O{sub 3}

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Himanen, S.

2008-07-01

Transgenic insect-resistant plants producing Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crystalline endotoxins are the first commercial applications of genetically modified crops and their use has steadily expanded over the last ten years. Together with the expanding agricultural use of transgenic crops, climate change is predicted to be among the major factors affecting agriculture in the coming years. Plants, herbivores and insects of higher trophic levels are all predicted to be affected by the current atmospheric climate change. However, only very few studies to date have addressed the sustained use and herbivore interactions of Bt-producing plants under the influence of these abiotic factors. The main objective of this study was to comparatively assess the performance of a Bt Cry1Ac toxin-producing oilseed rape line and its non-transgenic parent line in terms of vegetative growth and allocation to secondary defence compounds (glucosinolates and volatile terpenoids), and the performance of Bt-target and nontarget insect herbivores as well as tritrophic interaction functioning on these lines. For this, several growth chamber experiments with vegetative stage non-Bt and Bt plants facing exposures to doubled atmospheric CO{sub 2} level alone or together with increased temperature and different regimes of elevated O{sub 3} were conducted. The main hypothesis of this work was that Bt-transgenic plants have reduced performance or allocation to secondary compounds due to the cost of producing Bt toxin under changed abiotic environments. The Bt-transgenic oilseed rape line exhibited slightly delayed vegetative growth and had increased nitrogen and reduced carbon content compared to the non-transgenic parent line, but the physiological responses (i.e. biomass gain and photosynthesis) of the plant lines to CO{sub 2} and O{sub 3} enhancements were equal. Two aphid species, non-susceptible to Bt Cry1Ac, showed equal performance and reproduction on both plant lines under elevated CO{sub 2

Calculations of the magnetic entropy change in amorphous through a microscopic anisotropic model: Applications to Dy{sub 70}Zr{sub 30} and DyCo{sub 3.4} alloys

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ranke, P. J. von, E-mail: von.ranke@uol.com.br; Nóbrega, E. P.; Ribeiro, P. O.; Alvarenga, T. S. T.; Lopes, P. H. O.; Sousa, V. S. R. de; Oliveira, N. A. de [Instituto de Física, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro—UERJ, Rua São Francisco Xavier, 524, 20550-013 Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Caldas, A. [Sociedade Unificada de Ensino Superior e Cultura, SUESC, 20211-351 Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Alho, B. P. [Instituto de Aplicação Fernando Rodrigues da Silveira, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Santa Alexandrina, 288, 20260-232 Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Carvalho, G. [Laboratório Nacional de Luz Sincroton—LNLS, 13083-970 Campinas, São Paulo (Brazil); Magnus, A.

2014-10-14

We report theoretical investigations on the magnetocaloric effect, described by the magnetic entropy change in rare earth—transition metal amorphous systems. The model includes the local anisotropy on the rare earth ions in Harris-Plischke-Zuckermann assumptions. The transition metals ions are treated in terms of itinerant electron ferromagnetism and the magnetic moment of rare earth ions is coupled to the polarized d-band by a local exchange interaction. The magnetocaloric effect was calculated in DyCo{sub 3.4} system, which presents amorphous sperimagnetic configuration. The calculations predict higher refrigerant capacity in the amorphous DyCo{sub 3.4} than in DyCo{sub 2} crystal, highlighting the importance of amorphous magnetocaloric materials. Our calculation of the magnetocaloric effect in Dy{sub 70}Zr{sub 30}, which presents amorphous asperomagnetic configuration, is in good agreement with the experimental result. Furthermore, magnetic entropy changes associated with crystal-amorphous configurations change are estimated.

Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heyder, Ursula; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang, E-mail: Ursula.Heyder@pik-potsdam.de, E-mail: Sibyll.Schaphoff@pik-potsdam.de [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam (Germany)

2011-07-15

The functioning of many ecosystems and their associated resilience could become severely compromised by climate change over the 21st century. We present a global risk analysis of terrestrial ecosystem changes based on an aggregate metric of joint changes in macroscopic ecosystem features including vegetation structure as well as carbon and water fluxes and stores. We apply this metric to global ecosystem simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL) under 58 WCRP CMIP3 climate change projections. Given the current knowledge of ecosystem processes and projected climate change patterns, we find that severe ecosystem changes cannot be excluded on any continent. They are likely to occur (in > 90% of the climate projections) in the boreal-temperate ecotone where heat and drought stress might lead to large-scale forest die-back, along boreal and mountainous tree lines where the temperature limitation will be alleviated, and in water-limited ecosystems where elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration will lead to increased water use efficiency of photosynthesis. Considerable ecosystem changes can be expected above 3 K local temperature change in cold and tropical climates and above 4 K in the temperate zone. Sensitivity to temperature change increases with decreasing precipitation in tropical and temperate ecosystems. In summary, there is a risk of substantial restructuring of the global land biosphere on current trajectories of climate change.

Changing heathlands in a changing climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ransijn, Johannes

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Bigras, S. C.

2009-12-01

participation of indigenous peoples in the development and management process. The effective application of accumulated climate change knowledge requires development of a policy framework that can address cumulative effects and take into account various stakeholders, multi-jurisdictional regulations and interests, environmental impacts and other concerns specific to the Arctic. Fundamental to such a framework are responsible economic development, sustainable communities, the commitment to achieving consensus between parties, and the use of traditional knowledge. One way to facilitate collaborative policy making is to increase international co-operation between Northerners, indigenous peoples, scientists, politicians and policy makers. The International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 proved a solid stepping-stone for multinational collaborations. Clear communication with politicians and policy-makers is challenging but essential, despite the lingering uncertainties in climate-change science. Public awareness helps considerably in getting messages to politicians, and it is therefore important that scientists and researchers share their results not only with colleagues but also with the general public.

Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change in Southern Ocean seabirds.

Science.gov (United States)

Barbraud, Christophe; Rivalan, Philippe; Inchausti, Pablo; Nevoux, Marie; Rolland, Virginie; Weimerskirch, Henri

2011-01-01

1. Recent climate change has affected a wide range of species, but predicting population responses to projected climate change using population dynamics theory and models remains challenging, and very few attempts have been made. The Southern Ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent are projected to warm and shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase, and several top predator species are affected by fluctuations in these oceanographic variables. 2. We compared and projected the population responses of three seabird species living in sub-tropical, sub-Antarctic and Antarctic biomes to predicted climate change over the next 50 years. Using stochastic population models we combined long-term demographic datasets and projections of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for three different IPCC emission scenarios (from most to least severe: A1B, A2, B1) from general circulation models of Earth's climate. 3. We found that climate mostly affected the probability to breed successfully, and in one case adult survival. Interestingly, frequent nonlinear relationships in demographic responses to climate were detected. Models forced by future predicted climatic change provided contrasted population responses depending on the species considered. The northernmost distributed species was predicted to be little affected by a future warming of the Southern Ocean, whereas steep declines were projected for the more southerly distributed species due to sea surface temperature warming and decrease in sea ice extent. For the most southerly distributed species, the A1B and B1 emission scenarios were respectively the most and less damaging. For the two other species, population responses were similar for all emission scenarios. 4. This is among the first attempts to study the demographic responses for several populations with contrasted environmental conditions, which illustrates that investigating the effects of climate change on core population dynamics

The Effect of Information Provision on Public Consensus about Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Deryugina, Tatyana; Shurchkov, Olga

2016-01-01

Despite over 20 years of research and scientific consensus on the topic, climate change continues to be a politically polarizing issue. We conducted a survey experiment to test whether providing the public with information on the exact extent of scientific agreement about the occurrence and causes of climate change affects respondents' own beliefs and bridges the divide between conservatives and liberals. First, we show that the public significantly underestimated the extent of the scientific consensus. We then find that those given concrete information about scientists' views were more likely to report believing that climate change was already underway and that it was caused by humans. However, their beliefs about the necessity of making policy decisions and their willingness to donate money to combat climate change were not affected. Information provision affected liberals, moderates, and conservatives similarly, implying that the gap in beliefs between liberals and conservatives is not likely to be bridged by information treatments similar to the one we study. Finally, we conducted a 6-month follow-up with respondents to see if the treatment effect persisted; the results were statistically inconclusive.

Changes of Some Indices of Low Flow affected by Climate Change in the Tang Panj Sezar Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mozayyan

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Due to the effects of climate change on water resources and hydrology, Changes in low flow as an important part of the water cycle, is of interest to researchers, water managers and users in various fields. Changes in characteristics of low flows affected by climate change may have important effects on various aspects of socioeconomic , environmental, water resources and governmental planning. There are several indices to assess the low flows. The used low flow indices in this research for assessing climate change impacts, is include the extracted indices from flow duration curve (Q70, Q90 and Q95, due to the importance of these indices in understanding and assessing the status of river flow in dry seasons that was investigated in Tang Panj Sezar basin in the west of Iran. Materials and methods: In this paper, the Tang Panj Sezar basin with an area of 9410 km2 was divided into 6 smaller sub catchments and the changes of low flow indices were studied in each of the sub catchments. In order to consider the effects of climate change on low flow, scenarios of temperature and precipitation using 10 atmospheric general circulation models (to investigate the uncertainty of GCMs for both the baseline (1971-2000 and future (2011-2040 under A2 emission scenario was prepared. These scenarios, due to large spatial scale need to downscaling. Therefore, LARS-WG stochastic weather generator model was used. In order to consider the effects of climate change on low flows in the future, a hydrologic model is required to simulate daily flow for 2011-2040. The IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was used for this purpose . After simulation of daily flow using IHACRES, with two time series of daily flow for the observation and future period in each of the sub catchment, the low flow indices were compared. Results Discussion: According to results, across the whole year, the monthly temperature in the future period has increased while rainfall scenarios show

Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation : Five ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

This project seeks to reduce the vulnerability of poor populations in sub-Saharan Africa to climate change by mobilizing scientists and all the other actors concerned to inform political decision-making. It will do so by means of five pilot projects in rural and urban populations. The project will emphasize the generation, ...

Climate change and climate policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

2000-08-01

The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

Large-x sub F spin asymmetry in. pi. sup 0 production by 200-GeV polarized protons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, D L; Corcoran, M D; Cranshaw, J; Nessi-Tedaldi, F; Nessi, M; Nguyen, C; Roberts, J B; Skeens, J; White, J L [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States). T.W. Bonner Nuclear Lab.; Akchurin, N; Onel, Y [Iowa Univ., Iowa City, IA (United States). Dept. of Physics; Belikov, N I; Derevschikov, A A; Grachov, O A; Matulenko, Yu A; Meschanin, A P; Nurushev, S B; Patalakha, D I; Rykov, V L; Solovyanov, V L; Vasiliev, A N [Inst. of High Energy Physics, Serpukhov (Russia); Bystricky, J; Lehar, F; Lesquen, A de [CEN-Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Cossairt, J D; Read, A L [Fermi National Accelerator Lab., Batavia, IL (United States); En' yo, H; Funahashi, H; Goto, Y; Imai, K; Itow, Y; Makino, S; Masaike, A; Miyake, K; Nagamine, T; Saito, N; Yamashita, S [Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Dept. of Physics; Grosnick, D P; Hill, D A; Laghai, M; Lopiano, D; Ohashi, Y; Spinka, H; Underwood, D G; Yokosawa, A [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); FNAL E704 Collaboration

1992-10-01

The spin asymmetry A{sub N} for inclusive {pi}{sup 0} production by 200-GeV transversely-polarized protons on a liquid hydrogen target has been measured at Fermilab over a wide range of x{sub F}, with 0.5sub T}<2 GeV/c. At x{sub F}>0.3, the asymmetry rises with increasing x{sub F} and reaches a value of A{sub N}=0.15{+-}0.03 in the region 0.6sub F}<0.8. This result provides new input regarding the question of the internal spin structure of transversely-polarized protons. (orig.).

Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Donley, Erin E; Naiman, Robert J; Marineau, Mathieu D

2012-10-01

We provide a case study prioritizing instream flow restoration activities by sub-basin according to the habitat needs of Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed salmonids relative to climate change in the central Columbia River basin in Washington State (USA). The objective is to employ scenario analysis to inform and improve existing instream flow restoration projects. We assess the sensitivity of late summer (July, August, and September) flows to the following scenario simulations - singly or in combination: climate change, changes in the quantity of water used for irrigation and possible changes to existing water resource policy. Flows for four sub-basins were modeled using the Water Evaluation and Planning system (WEAP) under historical and projected conditions of 2020 and 2040 for each scenario. Results indicate that Yakima will be the most flow-limited sub-basin with average reductions in streamflow of 41% under climate conditions of 2020 and 56% under 2040 conditions; 1.3-2.5 times greater than those of other sub-basins. In addition, irrigation plays a key role in the hydrology of the Yakima sub-basin - with flow reductions ranging from 78% to 90% under severe to extreme (i.e., 20-40%) increases in agricultural water use (2.0-4.4 times the reductions in the other sub-basins). The Yakima and Okanogan sub-basins are the most responsive to simulations of flow-bolstering policy change (providing salmon with first priority water allocation and at biologically relevant flows), as demonstrated by 91-100% target flows attained. The Wenatchee and Methow sub-basins do not exhibit similar responsiveness to simulated policy changes. Considering climate change only, we conclude that flow restoration should be prioritized first in the Yakima and Wenatchee sub-basins, and second in the Okanogan and Methow. Considering both climate change and possible policy changes, we recommend that the Yakima sub-basin receive the highest priority for flow restoration activities to sustain

An Exploratory Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Macedonian Agriculture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordan Hristov

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Using a mixed input–output model, this study examines potential changes in sector output and water requirements in Macedonia arising from climate change. By defining three climate change scenarios and exogenously specifying the warming shocks for five key agricultural sub-sectors, the effects on the economy were quantified. The results indicated that except for cereals and grapes, agricultural production would benefit from the low climate change scenario due to moderate changes in precipitation and temperature and longer cropping period, while there would be negligible effects on the rest of the economy. Contrary, the medium and high climate change scenarios would negatively affect agriculture due to increase in temperature and decline in precipitation, with severe losses in grape, apple and cereal production, but again with low effects on other economic sectors. As a result, water consumption by agriculture sector will increase by around 6% in the low climate change scenario, and decrease by around 8% and 16% in the medium and high climate change scenarios, respectively, relative to the current agriculture water consumption. Capital investment in irrigation equipment could mitigate the negative climate change impacts in the medium and high climate change scenarios. However, it would impose additional stresses on the existing limited water resource over time.

Implications of policies and prevent climate change for future food security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosenberg, N.J.; Scott, M.J.

1993-07-01

Measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels, suppression of on-farm emissions of methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), afforestation, and geoengineering ``fixes`` have been proposed to mitigate or eliminate greenhouse-forced climate change. These measures will impact agriculture and other sectors of the economy. this report discusses the above impacts.

Significant Climate Changes Caused by Soot Emitted From Rockets in the Stratosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, M. J.; Ross, M.; Toohey, D. W.

2010-12-01

A new type of hydrocarbon rocket engine with a larger soot emission index than current kerosene rockets is expected to power a fleet of suborbital rockets for commercial and scientific purposes in coming decades. At projected launch rates, emissions from these rockets will create a persistent soot layer in the northern middle stratosphere that would disproportionally affect the Earth’s atmosphere and cryosphere. A global climate model predicts that thermal forcing in the rocket soot layer will cause significant changes in the global atmospheric circulation and distributions of ozone and temperature. Tropical ozone columns decline as much as 1%, while polar ozone columns increase by up to 6%. Polar surface temperatures rise one Kelvin regionally and polar summer sea ice fractions shrink between 5 - 15%. After 20 years of suborbital rocket fleet operation, globally averaged radiative forcing (RF) from rocket soot exceeds the RF from rocket CO_{2} by six orders of magnitude, but remains small, comparable to the global RF from aviation. The response of the climate system is surprising given the small forcing, and should be investigated further with different climate models.

Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

Magnetostructural Phase Diagram of Multiferroic (ND<sub>4sub>)>2sub>FeCl>5sub>.H>2sub>O

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clune, A. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Hughey, K. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Musfeldt, J. L. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Tian, W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fernandez-Baca, J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Singleton, John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-02-13

Spin and polarization flop transitions are fascinating, especially when controlled by external stimuli like magnetic and electric field and accompanied by large material responses involving multiple degrees of freedom. Multiferroics like MnWO<sub>4sub>, TbMnO<sub>3sub>, and Ni<sub>3sub>TeO>6sub> are flagship examples and owe their remarkable properties, for instance field control of polarization and polarization flops combined with spin helix reorientation, to the anisotropy and heavy centers that bring in spin-orbit coupling. The family of A<sub>2sub>FeX>5sub>.H>2sub>O erythrosiderites (A = K, Rb, NH<sub>4sub>; B = Fe, Mn, Co; X = Cl, Br, H<sub>2sub>O) drew our attention due to the rich chemical tuning possibilities, complex phase diagrams, and topological similarities to oxide multiferroics.1 (NH<sub>4sub>)>2sub>FeCl>5sub>.H>2sub>O is the flagship example (Fig. 1(a)). It displays a high temperature order-disorder transition involving long-range hydrogen bonding of the NH<sub>4sub>⁺ group and two successive low temperature magnetic transitions below which non-collinear magnetic order and ferroelectricity are established.1 In addition to the magnetically-induced electric polarization that arises below 6.9 K (P = 3 μC/m<sub>2sub> along a and a smaller component along b), applied field reveals a peculiar hysteretic spin flop transition near 4.5 T above which polarization flops from the a- to the c-axis. There are elastic components as well. Taken together, these findings raise questions about the interactions that induce this behavior and whether additional non-equilibrium phases might be accessed under even higher magnetic fields.

Climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

2009-01-01

Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutowski, William J.

2013-02-07

The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

Polarization selective phase-change nanomodulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Appavoo, Kannatassen; Haglund, Richard F

2014-10-27

Manipulating optical signals below the diffraction limit is crucial for next-generation data-storage and telecommunication technologies. Although controlling the flow of light around nanoscale waveguides was achieved over a decade ago, modulating optical signals at terahertz frequencies within nanoscale volumes remains a challenge. Since the physics underlying any modulator relies on changes in dielectric properties, the incorporation of strongly electron-correlated materials (SECMs) has been proposed because they can exhibit orders of magnitude changes in electrical and optical properties with modest thermal, electrical or optical trigger signals. Here we demonstrate a hybrid nanomodulator of deep sub-wavelength dimensions with an active volume of only 0.002 µm(3) by spatially confining light on the nanometre length scale using a plasmonic nanostructure while simultaneously controlling the reactive near-field environment at its optical focus with a single, precisely positioned SECM nanostructure. Since the nanomodulator functionality hinges on this near-field electromagnetic interaction, the modulation is also selectively responsive to polarization. This architecture suggests one path for designing reconfigurable optoelectronic building blocks with responses that can be tailored with exquisite precision by varying size, geometry, and the intrinsic materials properties of the hybrid elements.

Climate Change Adaptation Tools at the Community Level: An Integrated Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elvis Modikela Nkoana

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The negative impacts of climate change are experienced at the global, regional and local levels. However, rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa face additional socio-political, cultural and economic challenges in addition to climate change. Decision support tools have been developed and applied to assist rural communities to cope with and adapt to climate change. However, poorly planned participatory processes and the lack of context-specific approaches in these tools are obstacles when aiming at strengthening the resilience of these rural communities. This paper uses an integrated literature review to identify best practices for involving rural communities in climate change adaptation efforts through the application of context-specific and culturally-sensitive climate change adaptation tools. These best practices include the use of a livelihoods approach to engage communities; the explicit acknowledgement of the local cultural do’s and don’ts; the recognition of local champions appointed from within the local community; the identification and prioritisation of vulnerable stakeholders; and the implementation of a two-way climate change risk communication instead of a one-sided information sharing approach.

Efficient and Equitable Climate Change Policies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Socrates Kypreos

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This report describes the Integrated Assessment Model TIAM-MACRO, which is a Ramsey-type macroeconomic growth model linked with a technology-rich engineering model of the energy-system and with a stylized sub-model of climate change. TIAM-MACRO contributes to coherent and consistent policy analyses at both the world and regional level and correlates demand for energy services to macro-economic developments across regions and time until the end of the 21st century. With the help of this model, two contrasting scenarios are defined related to the reference development (BASE case and the 2 °C (2DS case that follow long-term policies on climatic change mitigation in the spirit of the Paris agreement. Finally, we define ex-post market and non-market damages together with the damages related to Local Atmospheric Pollutants (LAP. The stringency of the 2DS case requires the complete restructuring of the energy and transport systems to be relying on carbon-free technologies and fuels together with technologies of negative emissions, at high costs. The study concludes that carbon policies not only consist of an insurance against the risk of climate change but also improve the ambient air quality, as they have secondary benefits that compensate for part of the cost of carbon control. However, the stringency of the 2DS case is so demanding that the cost of climate policies is above benefits.

Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Raquel A; Araújo, Miguel B; Burgess, Neil D; Foden, Wendy B; Gutsche, Alexander; Rahbek, Carsten; Cabeza, Mar

2014-01-01

Aim Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework. Location Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities. Results In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contracting in situ or shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains. Main conclusions We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several

Climate change governance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

2013-07-01

Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

2013-01-15

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

International aspects of climate change: The intergovernmental panel on climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brydges, T.; Fenech, A.

1990-01-01

The impact of various international conferences concerning global climate change on international opinions and attitudes is discussed. A number of conferences over the past two decades have drawn attention to the large socio-economic consequences of climate change. There has been increasing attention given to the likely affect of anthropogenically derived greenhouse gases on the global climate. Some early uncertainty over the likely long term changes in global temperature have been replaced by a scientific consensus that global temperatures are increasing and will continue to do so into the next century. Public awareness of the possibility of climate change and severe socio-economic consequences has been increasing and was given a major impetus by the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. An estimate of the possible time to solution of the climate change issue is given as 1988-2005, a span of 17 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has focused work into three working groups examining science, impacts and response strategies. 28 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

Changing climate, changing frames

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

Polar ocean stratification in a cold climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Haug, Gerald H

2004-03-04

The low-latitude ocean is strongly stratified by the warmth of its surface water. As a result, the great volume of the deep ocean has easiest access to the atmosphere through the polar surface ocean. In the modern polar ocean during the winter, the vertical distribution of temperature promotes overturning, with colder water over warmer, while the salinity distribution typically promotes stratification, with fresher water over saltier. However, the sensitivity of seawater density to temperature is reduced as temperature approaches the freezing point, with potential consequences for global ocean circulation under cold climates. Here we present deep-sea records of biogenic opal accumulation and sedimentary nitrogen isotopic composition from the Subarctic North Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These records indicate that vertical stratification increased in both northern and southern high latitudes 2.7 million years ago, when Northern Hemisphere glaciation intensified in association with global cooling during the late Pliocene epoch. We propose that the cooling caused this increased stratification by weakening the role of temperature in polar ocean density structure so as to reduce its opposition to the stratifying effect of the vertical salinity distribution. The shift towards stratification in the polar ocean 2.7 million years ago may have increased the quantity of carbon dioxide trapped in the abyss, amplifying the global cooling.

Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 8. Impacts of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on agricultural growing seasons and crop water use efficiencies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, J. E.

1982-09-01

The researchable areas addressed relate to the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural growing seasons and crop adaptation responses on a global basis. The research activities proposed are divided into the following two main areas of investigation: anticipated climate change impacts on the physical environmental characteristics of the agricultural growing seasons and, the most probable food crop responses to the possible changes in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ levels in plant environments. The main physical environmental impacts considered are the changes in temperature, or more directly, thermal energy levels and the growing season evapotranspiration-precipitation balances. The resulting food crop, commercial forest and rangeland species response impacts addressed relate to potential geographical shifts in agricultural growing seasons as determined by the length in days of the frost free period, thermal energy changes and water balance changes. In addition, the interaction of possible changes in plant water use efficiencies during the growing season in relationship to changing atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations, is also considered under the scenario of global warming due to increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration. These proposed research investigations are followed by adaptive response evaluations.

Formulating and testing a method for perturbing precipitation time series to reflect anticipated climatic changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Gregersen, Ida Bülow

2017-01-01

Urban water infrastructure has very long planning horizons, and planning is thus very dependent on reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change. Many urban water systems are designed using time series with a high temporal resolution. To assess the impact of climate change on these systems......, similarly high-resolution precipitation time series for future climate are necessary. Climate models cannot at their current resolutions provide these time series at the relevant scales. Known methods for stochastic downscaling of climate change to urban hydrological scales have known shortcomings...... in constructing realistic climate-changed precipitation time series at the sub-hourly scale. In the present study we present a deterministic methodology to perturb historical precipitation time series at the minute scale to reflect non-linear expectations to climate change. The methodology shows good skill...

Coming Climate Crisis? Perhaps, but Beware the Solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2010-01-01

Over the past several decades, there has been a growing awareness that climate changes in substantial ways, that human activities are having an impact on climate change, and that climate change can have major consequences for human societies. Unfortunately, along with this realization has come a strong polarization within the scientific community and outside of it regarding what if anything should be done to reduce negative human impacts and/or to attempt to control climate. This book places recent climate change in the context of the very long term history of change on planet Earth and warns that our understanding of climate change remains sufficiently incomplete that we should be extremely cautious about implementing proposed massive geoengineering schemes intended to alter future climate conditions. The book treats with respect the various viewpoints in the highly polarized discussions regarding climate change, following a basic assumption that the major scientists on each side of the issues have valuable points to bring to the table. The topic is too important to become endlessly mired in contentious polarization.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

2012-04-01

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.