WorldWideScience

Sample records for sub-grid scale variability

  1. Evapotranspiration and cloud variability at regional sub-grid scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vila-Guerau de Arellano, Jordi; Sikma, Martin; Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Xabier; van Heerwaarden, Chiel; Hartogensis, Oscar; Ouwersloot, Huug

    2017-04-01

    In regional and global models uncertainties arise due to our incomplete understanding of the coupling between biochemical and physical processes. Representing their impact depends on our ability to calculate these processes using physically sound parameterizations, since they are unresolved at scales smaller than the grid size. More specifically over land, the coupling between evapotranspiration, turbulent transport of heat and moisture, and clouds lacks a combined representation to take these sub-grid scales interactions into account. Our approach is based on understanding how radiation, surface exchange, turbulent transport and moist convection are interacting from the leaf- to the cloud scale. We therefore place special emphasis on plant stomatal aperture as the main regulator of CO2-assimilation and water transpiration, a key source of moisture source to the atmosphere. Plant functionality is critically modulated by interactions with atmospheric conditions occurring at very short spatiotemporal scales such as cloud radiation perturbations or water vapour turbulent fluctuations. By explicitly resolving these processes, the LES (large-eddy simulation) technique is enabling us to characterize and better understand the interactions between canopies and the local atmosphere. This includes the adaption time of vegetation to rapid changes in atmospheric conditions driven by turbulence or the presence of cumulus clouds. Our LES experiments are based on explicitly coupling the diurnal atmospheric dynamics to a plant physiology model. Our general hypothesis is that different partitioning of direct and diffuse radiation leads to different responses of the vegetation. As a result there are changes in the water use efficiencies and shifts in the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes under the presence of clouds. Our presentation is as follows. First, we discuss the ability of LES to reproduce the surface energy balance including photosynthesis and CO2 soil

  2. Sub-Grid Scale Plume Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greg Yarwood

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Multi-pollutant chemical transport models (CTMs are being routinely used to predict the impacts of emission controls on the concentrations and deposition of primary and secondary pollutants. While these models have a fairly comprehensive treatment of the governing atmospheric processes, they are unable to correctly represent processes that occur at very fine scales, such as the near-source transport and chemistry of emissions from elevated point sources, because of their relatively coarse horizontal resolution. Several different approaches have been used to address this limitation, such as using fine grids, adaptive grids, hybrid modeling, or an embedded sub-grid scale plume model, i.e., plume-in-grid (PinG modeling. In this paper, we first discuss the relative merits of these various approaches used to resolve sub-grid scale effects in grid models, and then focus on PinG modeling which has been very effective in addressing the problems listed above. We start with a history and review of PinG modeling from its initial applications for ozone modeling in the Urban Airshed Model (UAM in the early 1980s using a relatively simple plume model, to more sophisticated and state-of-the-science plume models, that include a full treatment of gas-phase, aerosol, and cloud chemistry, embedded in contemporary models such as CMAQ, CAMx, and WRF-Chem. We present examples of some typical results from PinG modeling for a variety of applications, discuss the implications of PinG on model predictions of source attribution, and discuss possible future developments and applications for PinG modeling.

  3. Stochastic fields method for sub-grid scale emission heterogeneity in mesoscale atmospheric dispersion models

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    M. Cassiani

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic fields method for turbulent reacting flows has been applied to the issue of sub-grid scale emission heterogeneity in a mesoscale model. This method is a solution technique for the probability density function (PDF transport equation and can be seen as a straightforward extension of currently used mesoscale dispersion models. It has been implemented in an existing mesoscale model and the results are compared with Large-Eddy Simulation (LES data devised to test specifically the effect of sub-grid scale emission heterogeneity on boundary layer concentration fluctuations. The sub-grid scale emission variability is assimilated in the model as a PDF of the emissions. The stochastic fields method shows excellent agreement with the LES data without adjustment of the constants used in the mesoscale model. The stochastic fields method is a stochastic solution of the transport equations for the concentration PDF of dispersing scalars, therefore it possesses the ability to handle chemistry of any complexity without the need to introduce additional closures for the high order statistics of chemical species. This study shows for the first time the feasibility of applying this method to mesoscale chemical transport models.

  4. Stochastic fields method for sub-grid scale emission heterogeneity in mesoscale atmospheric dispersion models

    OpenAIRE

    M. Cassiani; Vinuesa, J.F.; Galmarini, S.; Denby, B

    2010-01-01

    The stochastic fields method for turbulent reacting flows has been applied to the issue of sub-grid scale emission heterogeneity in a mesoscale model. This method is a solution technique for the probability density function (PDF) transport equation and can be seen as a straightforward extension of currently used mesoscale dispersion models. It has been implemented in an existing mesoscale model and the results are compared with Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) data devised to test specifically the...

  5. Sub-Grid-Scale Description of Turbulent Magnetic Reconnection in Magnetohydrodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Widmer, Fabien; Yokoi, Nobumitsu

    2015-01-01

    Magnetic reconnection requires, at least locally, a non-ideal plasma response. In collisionless space and astrophysical plasmas, turbulence could permit this instead of the too rare binary collisions. We investigated the influence of turbulence on the reconnection rate in the framework of a single fluid compressible MHD approach. The goal is to find out, whether unresolved, sub-grid for MHD simulations, turbulence can enhance the reconnection process in high Reynolds number astrophysical plasma. We solve, simultaneously with the grid-scale MHD equations, evolution equations for the sub-grid turbulent energy and cross helicity according to Yokoi's model (Yokoi (2013)) where turbulence is self-generated and -sustained through the inhomogeneities of the mean fields. Simulations of Harris and force free sheets confirm the results of Higashimori et al. (2013) and new results are obtained about the dependence on resistivity for large Reynolds number as well as guide field effects. The amount of energy transferred f...

  6. The effects of the sub-grid variability of soil and land cover data on agricultural droughts in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Zink, Matthias

    2013-04-01

    Simulated soil moisture from land surface or water balance models is increasingly used to characterize and/or monitor the development of agricultural droughts at regional and global scales (e.g. NLADS, EDO, GLDAS). The skill of these models to accurately replicate hydrologic fluxes and state variables is strongly dependent on the quality meteorological forcings, the conceptualization of dominant processes, and the parameterization scheme used to incorporate the variability of land surface properties (e.g. soil, topography, and vegetation) at a coarser spatial resolutions (e.g. at least 4 km). The goal of this study is to analyze the effects of the sub-grid variability of soil texture and land cover properties on agricultural drought statistics such as duration, severity, and areal extent. For this purpose, a process based mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) is used to create two sets of daily soil moisture fields over Germany at the spatial resolution of (4 × 4) km2 from 1950 to 2011. These simulations differ from each other only on the manner in which the land surface properties are accounted within the model. In the first set, soil moisture fields are obtained with the multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) scheme (Samaniego, et. al. 2010, Kumar et. al. 2012), which explicitly takes the sub-grid variability of soil texture and land cover properties into account. In the second set, on the contrary, a single dominant soil and land cover class is used for ever grid cell at 4 km. Within each set, the propagation of the parameter uncertainty into the soil moisture simulations is also evaluated using an ensemble of 100 best global parameter sets of mHM (Samaniego, et. al. 2012). To ensure comparability, both sets of this ensemble simulations are forced with the same fields of meteorological variables (e.g., precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration). Results indicate that both sets of model simulations, with and without the sub-grid variability of

  7. Improving sub-grid scale accuracy of boundary features in regional finite-difference models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panday, Sorab; Langevin, Christian D.

    2012-01-01

    As an alternative to grid refinement, the concept of a ghost node, which was developed for nested grid applications, has been extended towards improving sub-grid scale accuracy of flow to conduits, wells, rivers or other boundary features that interact with a finite-difference groundwater flow model. The formulation is presented for correcting the regular finite-difference groundwater flow equations for confined and unconfined cases, with or without Newton Raphson linearization of the nonlinearities, to include the Ghost Node Correction (GNC) for location displacement. The correction may be applied on the right-hand side vector for a symmetric finite-difference Picard implementation, or on the left-hand side matrix for an implicit but asymmetric implementation. The finite-difference matrix connectivity structure may be maintained for an implicit implementation by only selecting contributing nodes that are a part of the finite-difference connectivity. Proof of concept example problems are provided to demonstrate the improved accuracy that may be achieved through sub-grid scale corrections using the GNC schemes.

  8. Impact of Sub-grid Soil Textural Properties on Simulations of Hydrological Fluxes at the Continental Scale Mississippi River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.; Livneh, B.

    2013-12-01

    Knowledge of soil hydraulic properties such as porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity is required to accurately model the dynamics of near-surface hydrological processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and root-zone soil moisture dynamics) and provide reliable estimates of regional water and energy budgets. Soil hydraulic properties are commonly derived from pedo-transfer functions using soil textural information recorded during surveys, such as the fractions of sand and clay, bulk density, and organic matter content. Typically large scale land-surface models are parameterized using a relatively coarse soil map with little or no information on parametric sub-grid variability. In this study we analyze the impact of sub-grid soil variability on simulated hydrological fluxes over the Mississippi River Basin (≈3,240,000 km2) at multiple spatio-temporal resolutions. A set of numerical experiments were conducted with the distributed mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) using two soil datasets: (a) the Digital General Soil Map of the United States or STATSGO2 (1:250 000) and (b) the recently collated Harmonized World Soil Database based on the FAO-UNESCO Soil Map of the World (1:5 000 000). mHM was parameterized with the multi-scale regionalization technique that derives distributed soil hydraulic properties via pedo-transfer functions and regional coefficients. Within the experimental framework, the 3-hourly model simulations were conducted at four spatial resolutions ranging from 0.125° to 1°, using meteorological datasets from the NLDAS-2 project for the time period 1980-2012. Preliminary results indicate that the model was able to capture observed streamflow behavior reasonably well with both soil datasets, in the major sub-basins (i.e. the Missouri, the Upper Mississippi, the Ohio, the Red, and the Arkansas). However, the spatio-temporal patterns of simulated water fluxes and states (e.g. soil moisture, evapotranspiration) from both simulations, showed marked

  9. Sub-grid-scale description of turbulent magnetic reconnection in magnetohydrodynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widmer, F., E-mail: widmer@mps.mpg.de [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, 37077 Göttingen (Germany); Institut für Astrophysik, Georg-August-Universität, Friedrich-Hund-Platz 1, 37077 Göttingen (Germany); Büchner, J. [Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Justus-von-Liebig-Weg 3, 37077 Göttingen (Germany); Yokoi, N. [Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)

    2016-04-15

    Magnetic reconnection requires, at least locally, a non-ideal plasma response. In collisionless space and astrophysical plasmas, turbulence could transport energy from large to small scales where binary particle collisions are rare. We have investigated the influence of small scale magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) turbulence on the reconnection rate in the framework of a compressible MHD approach including sub-grid-scale (SGS) turbulence. For this sake, we considered Harris-type and force-free current sheets with finite guide magnetic fields directed out of the reconnection plane. The goal is to find out whether unresolved by conventional simulations MHD turbulence can enhance the reconnection process in high-Reynolds-number astrophysical plasmas. Together with the MHD equations, we solve evolution equations for the SGS energy and cross-helicity due to turbulence according to a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model. The SGS turbulence is self-generated and -sustained through the inhomogeneities of the mean fields. By this way, the feedback of the unresolved turbulence into the MHD reconnection process is taken into account. It is shown that the turbulence controls the regimes of reconnection by its characteristic timescale τ{sub t}. The dependence on resistivity was investigated for large-Reynolds-number plasmas for Harris-type as well as force-free current sheets with guide field. We found that magnetic reconnection depends on the relation between the molecular and apparent effective turbulent resistivity. We found that the turbulence timescale τ{sub t} decides whether fast reconnection takes place or whether the stored energy is just diffused away to small scale turbulence. If the amount of energy transferred from large to small scales is enhanced, fast reconnection can take place. Energy spectra allowed us to characterize the different regimes of reconnection. It was found that reconnection is even faster for larger Reynolds numbers controlled by the molecular

  10. USING CMAQ FOR EXPOSURE MODELING AND CHARACTERIZING THE SUB-GRID VARIABILITY FOR EXPOSURE ESTIMATES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atmospheric processes and the associated transport and dispersion of atmospheric pollutants are known to be highly variable in time and space. Current air quality models that characterize atmospheric chemistry effects, e.g. the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ), provide vo...

  11. A global data set of soil hydraulic properties and sub-grid variability of soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montzka, Carsten; Herbst, Michael; Weihermüller, Lutz; Verhoef, Anne; Vereecken, Harry

    2017-07-01

    Agroecosystem models, regional and global climate models, and numerical weather prediction models require adequate parameterization of soil hydraulic properties. These properties are fundamental for describing and predicting water and energy exchange processes at the transition zone between solid earth and atmosphere, and regulate evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff generation. Hydraulic parameters describing the soil water retention (WRC) and hydraulic conductivity (HCC) curves are typically derived from soil texture via pedotransfer functions (PTFs). Resampling of those parameters for specific model grids is typically performed by different aggregation approaches such a spatial averaging and the use of dominant textural properties or soil classes. These aggregation approaches introduce uncertainty, bias and parameter inconsistencies throughout spatial scales due to nonlinear relationships between hydraulic parameters and soil texture. Therefore, we present a method to scale hydraulic parameters to individual model grids and provide a global data set that overcomes the mentioned problems. The approach is based on Miller-Miller scaling in the relaxed form by Warrick, that fits the parameters of the WRC through all sub-grid WRCs to provide an effective parameterization for the grid cell at model resolution; at the same time it preserves the information of sub-grid variability of the water retention curve by deriving local scaling parameters. Based on the Mualem-van Genuchten approach we also derive the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity from the water retention functions, thereby assuming that the local parameters are also valid for this function. In addition, via the Warrick scaling parameter λ, information on global sub-grid scaling variance is given that enables modellers to improve dynamical downscaling of (regional) climate models or to perturb hydraulic parameters for model ensemble output generation. The present analysis is based on the ROSETTA PTF

  12. A global data set of soil hydraulic properties and sub-grid variability of soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Montzka

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Agroecosystem models, regional and global climate models, and numerical weather prediction models require adequate parameterization of soil hydraulic properties. These properties are fundamental for describing and predicting water and energy exchange processes at the transition zone between solid earth and atmosphere, and regulate evapotranspiration, infiltration and runoff generation. Hydraulic parameters describing the soil water retention (WRC and hydraulic conductivity (HCC curves are typically derived from soil texture via pedotransfer functions (PTFs. Resampling of those parameters for specific model grids is typically performed by different aggregation approaches such a spatial averaging and the use of dominant textural properties or soil classes. These aggregation approaches introduce uncertainty, bias and parameter inconsistencies throughout spatial scales due to nonlinear relationships between hydraulic parameters and soil texture. Therefore, we present a method to scale hydraulic parameters to individual model grids and provide a global data set that overcomes the mentioned problems. The approach is based on Miller–Miller scaling in the relaxed form by Warrick, that fits the parameters of the WRC through all sub-grid WRCs to provide an effective parameterization for the grid cell at model resolution; at the same time it preserves the information of sub-grid variability of the water retention curve by deriving local scaling parameters. Based on the Mualem–van Genuchten approach we also derive the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity from the water retention functions, thereby assuming that the local parameters are also valid for this function. In addition, via the Warrick scaling parameter λ, information on global sub-grid scaling variance is given that enables modellers to improve dynamical downscaling of (regional climate models or to perturb hydraulic parameters for model ensemble output generation. The present analysis is based

  13. Sub-grid scale representation of vegetation in global land surface schemes: implications for estimation of the terrestrial carbon sink

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    J. R. Melton

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystem models commonly represent vegetation in terms of plant functional types (PFTs and use their vegetation attributes in calculations of the energy and water balance as well as to investigate the terrestrial carbon cycle. Sub-grid scale variability of PFTs in these models is represented using different approaches with the "composite" and "mosaic" approaches being the two end-members. The impact of these two approaches on the global carbon balance has been investigated with the Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CTEM v 1.2 coupled to the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS v 3.6. In the composite (single-tile approach, the vegetation attributes of different PFTs present in a grid cell are aggregated and used in calculations to determine the resulting physical environmental conditions (soil moisture, soil temperature, etc. that are common to all PFTs. In the mosaic (multi-tile approach, energy and water balance calculations are performed separately for each PFT tile and each tile's physical land surface environmental conditions evolve independently. Pre-industrial equilibrium CLASS-CTEM simulations yield global totals of vegetation biomass, net primary productivity, and soil carbon that compare reasonably well with observation-based estimates and differ by less than 5% between the mosaic and composite configurations. However, on a regional scale the two approaches can differ by > 30%, especially in areas with high heterogeneity in land cover. Simulations over the historical period (1959–2005 show different responses to evolving climate and carbon dioxide concentrations from the two approaches. The cumulative global terrestrial carbon sink estimated over the 1959–2005 period (excluding land use change (LUC effects differs by around 5% between the two approaches (96.3 and 101.3 Pg, for the mosaic and composite approaches, respectively and compares well with the observation-based estimate of 82.2 ± 35 Pg C over the same

  14. An investigation of the sub-grid variability of trace gases and aerosols for global climate modeling

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    Y. Qian

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available One fundamental property and limitation of grid based models is their inability to identify spatial details smaller than the grid cell size. While decades of work have gone into developing sub-grid treatments for clouds and land surface processes in climate models, the quantitative understanding of sub-grid processes and variability for aerosols and their precursors is much poorer. In this study, WRF-Chem is used to simulate the trace gases and aerosols over central Mexico during the 2006 MILAGRO field campaign, with multiple spatial resolutions and emission/terrain scenarios. Our analysis focuses on quantifying the sub-grid variability (SGV of trace gases and aerosols within a typical global climate model grid cell, i.e. 75×75 km2.

    Our results suggest that a simulation with 3-km horizontal grid spacing adequately reproduces the overall transport and mixing of trace gases and aerosols downwind of Mexico City, while 75-km horizontal grid spacing is insufficient to represent local emission and terrain-induced flows along the mountain ridge, subsequently affecting the transport and mixing of plumes from nearby sources. Therefore, the coarse model grid cell average may not correctly represent aerosol properties measured over polluted areas. Probability density functions (PDFs for trace gases and aerosols show that secondary trace gases and aerosols, such as O3, sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate, are more likely to have a relatively uniform probability distribution (i.e. smaller SGV over a narrow range of concentration values. Mostly inert and long-lived trace gases and aerosols, such as CO and BC, are more likely to have broad and skewed distributions (i.e. larger SGV over polluted regions. Over remote areas, all trace gases and aerosols are more uniformly distributed compared to polluted areas. Both CO and O3 SGV vertical profiles are nearly constant within the PBL during daytime, indicating that trace gases

  15. Effect of reactions in small eddies on biomass gasification with eddy dissipation concept - Sub-grid scale reaction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Juhui; Yin, Weijie; Wang, Shuai; Meng, Cheng; Li, Jiuru; Qin, Bai; Yu, Guangbin

    2016-07-01

    Large-eddy simulation (LES) approach is used for gas turbulence, and eddy dissipation concept (EDC)-sub-grid scale (SGS) reaction model is employed for reactions in small eddies. The simulated gas molar fractions are in better agreement with experimental data with EDC-SGS reaction model. The effect of reactions in small eddies on biomass gasification is emphatically analyzed with EDC-SGS reaction model. The distributions of the SGS reaction rates which represent the reactions in small eddies with particles concentration and temperature are analyzed. The distributions of SGS reaction rates have the similar trend with those of total reactions rates and the values account for about 15% of the total reactions rates. The heterogeneous reaction rates with EDC-SGS reaction model are also improved during the biomass gasification process in bubbling fluidized bed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Two-fluid sub-grid-scale viscosity in nonlinear simulation of ballooning modes in a heliotron device

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, H.; Hamba, F.; Ito, A.

    2017-07-01

    A large eddy simulation (LES) approach is introduced to enable the study of the nonlinear growth of ballooning modes in a heliotron-type device, by solving fully 3D two-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations numerically over a wide range of parameter space, keeping computational costs as low as possible. A model to substitute the influence of scales smaller than the grid size, at sub-grid scale (SGS), and at the scales larger than it—grid scale (GS)—has been developed for LES. The LESs of two-fluid MHD equations with SGS models have successfully reproduced the growth of the ballooning modes in the GS and nonlinear saturation. The numerical results show the importance of SGS effects on the GS components, or the effects of turbulent fluctuation at small scales in low-wavenumber unstable modes, over the course of the nonlinear saturation process. The results also show the usefulness of the LES approach in studying instability in a heliotron device. It is shown through a parameter survey over many SGS model coefficients that turbulent small-scale components in experiments can contribute to keeping the plasma core pressure from totally collapsing.

  17. One-equation sub-grid scale (SGS) modelling for Euler-Euler large eddy simulation (EELES) of dispersed bubbly flow

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niceno, B.; Dhotre, M.T.; Deen, N.G.

    2008-01-01

    In this work, we have presented a one-equation model for sub-grid scale (SGS) kinetic energy and applied it for an Euler-Euler large eddy simulation (EELES) of a bubble column reactor. The one-equation model for SGS kinetic energy shows improved predictions over the state-of-the-art dynamic

  18. Assessment of sub-grid scale dispersion closure with regularized deconvolution method in a particle-laden turbulent jet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qing; Zhao, Xinyu; Ihme, Matthias

    2017-11-01

    Particle-laden turbulent flows are important in numerous industrial applications, such as spray combustion engines, solar energy collectors etc. It is of interests to study this type of flows numerically, especially using large-eddy simulations (LES). However, capturing the turbulence-particle interaction in LES remains challenging due to the insufficient representation of the effect of sub-grid scale (SGS) dispersion. In the present work, a closure technique for the SGS dispersion using regularized deconvolution method (RDM) is assessed. RDM was proposed as the closure for the SGS dispersion in a counterflow spray that is studied numerically using finite difference method on a structured mesh. A presumed form of LES filter is used in the simulations. In the present study, this technique has been extended to finite volume method with an unstructured mesh, where no presumption on the filter form is required. The method is applied to a series of particle-laden turbulent jets. Parametric analyses of the model performance are conducted for flows with different Stokes numbers and Reynolds numbers. The results from LES will be compared against experiments and direct numerical simulations (DNS).

  19. Numerical aspects of drift kinetic turbulence: Ill-posedness, regularization and a priori estimates of sub-grid-scale terms

    KAUST Repository

    Samtaney, Ravi

    2012-01-01

    We present a numerical method based on an Eulerian approach to solve the Vlasov-Poisson system for 4D drift kinetic turbulence. Our numerical approach uses a conservative formulation with high-order (fourth and higher) evaluation of the numerical fluxes coupled with a fourth-order accurate Poisson solver. The fluxes are computed using a low-dissipation high-order upwind differencing method or a tuned high-resolution finite difference method with no numerical dissipation. Numerical results are presented for the case of imposed ion temperature and density gradients. Different forms of controlled regularization to achieve a well-posed system are used to obtain convergent resolved simulations. The regularization of the equations is achieved by means of a simple collisional model, by inclusion of an ad-hoc hyperviscosity or artificial viscosity term or by implicit dissipation in upwind schemes. Comparisons between the various methods and regularizations are presented. We apply a filtering formalism to the Vlasov equation and derive sub-grid-scale (SGS) terms analogous to the Reynolds stress terms in hydrodynamic turbulence. We present a priori quantifications of these SGS terms in resolved simulations of drift-kinetic turbulence by applying a sharp filter. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  20. Sub-grid scale models for discontinuous Galerkin methods based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parish, Eric; Duraisamy, Karthk

    2017-11-01

    The optimal prediction framework of Chorin et al., which is a reformulation of the Mori-Zwanzig (M-Z) formalism of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, provides a framework for the development of mathematically-derived closure models. The M-Z formalism provides a methodology to reformulate a high-dimensional Markovian dynamical system as a lower-dimensional, non-Markovian (non-local) system. In this lower-dimensional system, the effects of the unresolved scales on the resolved scales are non-local and appear as a convolution integral. The non-Markovian system is an exact statement of the original dynamics and is used as a starting point for model development. In this work, we investigate the development of M-Z-based closures model within the context of the Variational Multiscale Method (VMS). The method relies on a decomposition of the solution space into two orthogonal subspaces. The impact of the unresolved subspace on the resolved subspace is shown to be non-local in time and is modeled through the M-Z-formalism. The models are applied to hierarchical discontinuous Galerkin discretizations. Commonalities between the M-Z closures and conventional flux schemes are explored. This work was supported in part by AFOSR under the project ''LES Modeling of Non-local effects using Statistical Coarse-graining'' with Dr. Jean-Luc Cambier as the technical monitor.

  1. Effect of Considering Sub-Grid Scale Uncertainties on the Forecasts of a High-Resolution Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, SeHyun; Kim, Hyun Mee

    2017-05-01

    The ensemble prediction system (EPS) is widely used in research and at operation center because it can represent the uncertainty of predicted atmospheric state and provide information of probabilities. The high-resolution (so-called "convection-permitting") limited area EPS can represent the convection and turbulence related to precipitation phenomena in more detail, but it is also much sensitive to small-scale or sub-grid scale processes. The convection and turbulence are represented using physical processes in the model and model errors occur due to sub-grid scale processes that were not resolved. This study examined the effect of considering sub-grid scale uncertainties using the high-resolution limited area EPS of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The developed EPS has horizontal resolution of 3 km and 12 ensemble members. The initial and boundary conditions were provided by the global model. The Random Parameters (RP) scheme was used to represent sub-grid scale uncertainties. The EPSs with and without the RP scheme were developed and the results were compared. During the one month period of July, 2013, a significant difference was shown in the spread of 1.5 m temperature and the Root Mean Square Error and spread of 10 m zonal wind due to application of the RP scheme. For precipitation forecast, the precipitation tended to be overestimated relative to the observation when the RP scheme was applied. Moreover, the forecast became more accurate for heavy precipitations and the longer forecast lead times. For two heavy rainfall cases occurred during the research period, the higher Equitable Threat Score was observed for heavy precipitations in the system with the RP scheme compared to the one without, demonstrating consistency with the statistical results for the research period. Therefore, the predictability for heavy precipitation phenomena that affected the Korean Peninsula increases if the RP scheme is used to consider sub-grid scale uncertainties

  2. Modeling lightning-NOx chemistry on a sub-grid scale in a global chemical transport model

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    A. Gressent

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available For the first time, a plume-in-grid approach is implemented in a chemical transport model (CTM to parameterize the effects of the nonlinear reactions occurring within high concentrated NOx plumes from lightning NOx emissions (LNOx in the upper troposphere. It is characterized by a set of parameters including the plume lifetime, the effective reaction rate constant related to NOx–O3 chemical interactions, and the fractions of NOx conversion into HNO3 within the plume. Parameter estimates were made using the Dynamical Simple Model of Atmospheric Chemical Complexity (DSMACC box model, simple plume dispersion simulations, and the 3-D Meso-NH (non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model. In order to assess the impact of the LNOx plume approach on the NOx and O3 distributions on a large scale, simulations for the year 2006 were performed using the GEOS-Chem global model with a horizontal resolution of 2° × 2.5°. The implementation of the LNOx parameterization implies an NOx and O3 decrease on a large scale over the region characterized by a strong lightning activity (up to 25 and 8 %, respectively, over central Africa in July and a relative increase downwind of LNOx emissions (up to 18 and 2 % for NOx and O3, respectively, in July. The calculated variability in NOx and O3 mixing ratios around the mean value according to the known uncertainties in the parameter estimates is at a maximum over continental tropical regions with ΔNOx [−33.1, +29.7] ppt and ΔO3 [−1.56, +2.16] ppb, in January, and ΔNOx [−14.3, +21] ppt and ΔO3 [−1.18, +1.93] ppb, in July, mainly depending on the determination of the diffusion properties of the atmosphere and the initial NO mixing ratio injected by lightning. This approach allows us (i to reproduce a more realistic lightning NOx chemistry leading to better NOx and O3 distributions on the large scale and (ii to focus on other improvements to reduce remaining uncertainties from processes

  3. Sensitivity of boreal forest regional water flux and net primary production simulations to sub-grid-scale land cover complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimball, J. S.; Running, S. W.; Saatchi, S. S.

    1999-11-01

    We use a general ecosystem process model (BIOME-BGC) coupled with remote sensing information to evaluate the sensitivity of boreal forest regional evapotranspiration (ET) and net primary production (NPP) to land cover spatial scale. Simulations were conducted over a 3 year period (1994-1996) at spatial scales ranging from 30 to 50 km within the BOREAS southern modeling subarea. Simulated fluxes were spatially complex, ranging from 0.1 to 3.9 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 and from 18 to 29 cm yr-1. Biomass and leaf area index heterogeneity predominantly controlled this complexity, while biophysical differences between deciduous and coniferous vegetation were of secondary importance. Spatial aggregation of land cover characteristics resulted in mean monthly NPP estimation bias from 25 to 48% (0.11-0.20 g C m-2 d-1) and annual estimation errors from 2 to 14% (0.04-0.31 Mg C ha-1 yr-1). Error was reduced at longer time intervals because coarse scale overestimation errors during spring were partially offset by underestimation of fine scale results during summer and winter. ET was relatively insensitive to land cover spatial scale with an average bias of less than 5% (0.04 kg m-2 d-1). Factors responsible for differences in scaling behavior between ET and NPP included compensating errors for ET calculations and boreal forest spatial and temporal NPP complexity. Careful consideration of landscape spatial and temporal heterogeneity is necessary to identify and mitigate potential error sources when using plot scale information to understand regional scale patterns. Remote sensing data integrated within an ecological process model framework provides an efficient mechanism to evaluate scaling behavior, interpret patterns in coarse resolution data, and identify appropriate scales of operation for various processes.

  4. Influence of Sub-grid-Scale Isentropic Transports on McRAS Evaluations using ARM-CART SCM Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.; Tao, W. K.

    2004-01-01

    In GCM-physics evaluations with the currently available ARM-CART SCM datasets, McRAS produced very similar character of near surface errors of simulated temperature and humidity containing typically warm and moist biases near the surface and cold and dry biases aloft. We argued it must have a common cause presumably rooted in the model physics. Lack of vertical adjustment of horizontal transport was thought to be a plausible source. Clearly, debarring such a freedom would force the incoming air to diffuse into the grid-cell which would naturally bias the surface air to become warm and moist while the upper air becomes cold and dry, a characteristic feature of McRAS biases. Since, the errors were significantly larger in the two winter cases that contain potentially more intense episodes of cold and warm advective transports, it further reaffirmed our argument and provided additional motivation to introduce the corrections. When the horizontal advective transports were suitably modified to allow rising and/or sinking following isentropic pathways of subgrid scale motions, the outcome was to cool and dry (or warm and moisten) the lower (or upper) levels. Ever, crude approximations invoking such a correction reduced the temperature and humidity biases considerably. The tests were performed on all the available ARM-CART SCM cases with consistent outcome. With the isentropic corrections implemented through two different numerical approximations, virtually similar benefits were derived further confirming the robustness of our inferences. These results suggest the need for insentropic advective transport adjustment in a GCM due to subgrid scale motions.

  5. Integrating land management into Earth system models: the importance of land use transitions at sub-grid-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongratz, Julia; Wilkenskjeld, Stiig; Kloster, Silvia; Reick, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies indicate that changes in surface climate and carbon fluxes caused by land management (i.e., modifications of vegetation structure without changing the type of land cover) can be as large as those caused by land cover change. Further, such effects may occur on substantial areas: while about one quarter of the land surface has undergone land cover change, another fifty percent are managed. This calls for integration of management processes in Earth system models (ESMs). This integration increases the importance of awareness and agreement on how to diagnose effects of land use in ESMs to avoid additional model spread and thus unnecessary uncertainties in carbon budget estimates. Process understanding of management effects, their model implementation, as well as data availability on management type and extent pose challenges. In this respect, a significant step forward has been done in the framework of the current IPCC's CMIP5 simulations (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5): The climate simulations were driven with the same harmonized land use dataset that, different from most datasets commonly used before, included information on two important types of management: wood harvest and shifting cultivation. However, these new aspects were employed by only part of the CMIP5 models, while most models continued to use the associated land cover maps. Here, we explore the consequences for the carbon cycle of including subgrid-scale land transformations ("gross transitions"), such as shifting cultivation, as example of the current state of implementation of land management in ESMs. Accounting for gross transitions is expected to increase land use emissions because it represents simultaneous clearing and regrowth of natural vegetation in different parts of the grid cell, reducing standing carbon stocks. This process cannot be captured by prescribing land cover maps ("net transitions"). Using the MPI-ESM we find that ignoring gross transitions

  6. Predicting the impacts of fishing canals on Floodplain Dynamics in Northern Cameroon using a small-scale sub-grid hydraulic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shastry, A. R.; Durand, M. T.; Fernandez, A.; Hamilton, I.; Kari, S.; Labara, B.; Laborde, S.; Mark, B. G.; Moritz, M.; Neal, J. C.; Phang, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    Modeling Regime Shifts in the Logone floodplain (MORSL) is an ongoing interdisciplinary project at The Ohio State University studying the ecological, social and hydrological system of the region. This floodplain, located in Northern Cameroon, is part of the Lake Chad basin. Between September and October the floodplain is inundated by the overbank flow from the Logone River, which is important for agriculture and fishing. Fishermen build canals to catch fish during the flood's recession to the river by installing fishnets at the intersection of the canals and the river. Fishing canals thus connect the river to natural depressions of the terrain, which act as seasonal ponds during this part of the year. Annual increase in the number of canals affect hydraulics and hence fishing in the region. In this study, the Bara region (1 km2) of the Logone floodplain, through which Lorome Mazra flows, is modeled using LISFLOOD-FP, a raster-based model with sub-grid parameterizations of canals. The aim of the study is to find out how the small-scale, local features like canals and fishnets govern the flow, so that it can be incorporated in a large-scale model of the floodplain at a coarser spatial resolution. We will also study the effect of increasing number of canals on the flooding pattern. We use a simplified version of the hydraulic system at a grid-cell size of 30-m, using synthetic topography, parameterized fishing canals, and representing fishnets as trash screens. The inflow at Bara is obtained from a separate, lower resolution (1-km grid-cell) model run, which is forced by daily discharge records obtained from Katoa, located about 25-km to the south of Bara. The model appropriately captures the rise and recession of the annual flood, supporting use of the LISFLOOD-FP approach. Predicted water levels at specific points in the river, the canals, the depression and the floodplain will be compared to field measured heights of flood recession in Bara, November 2014.

  7. A new downscaling method for sub-grid turbulence modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Rottner

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study we explore a new way to model sub-grid turbulence using particle systems. The ability of particle systems to model small-scale turbulence is evaluated using high-resolution numerical simulations. These high-resolution data are averaged to produce a coarse-grid velocity field, which is then used to drive a complete particle-system-based downscaling. Wind fluctuations and turbulent kinetic energy are compared between the particle simulations and the high-resolution simulation. Despite the simplicity of the physical model used to drive the particles, the results show that the particle system is able to represent the average field. It is shown that this system is able to reproduce much finer turbulent structures than the numerical high-resolution simulations. In addition, this study provides an estimate of the effective spatial and temporal resolution of the numerical models. This highlights the need for higher-resolution simulations in order to evaluate the very fine turbulent structures predicted by the particle systems. Finally, a study of the influence of the forcing scale on the particle system is presented.

  8. Continuously-Variable Vernier Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Irvin M.

    1989-01-01

    Easily fabricated device increases precision in reading graphical data. Continuously-variable vernier scale (CV VS) designed to provide greater accuracy to scientists and technologists in reading numerical values from graphical data. Placed on graph and used to interpolate coordinate value of point on curve or plotted point on figure within division on each coordinate axis. Requires neither measurement of line segments where projection of point intersects division nor calculation to quantify projected value. Very flexible device constructed with any kind of scale. Very easy to use, requiring no special equipment of any kind, and saves considerable amount of time if numerous points to be evaluated.

  9. Combination of Lidar Elevations, Bathymetric Data, and Urban Infrastructure in a Sub-Grid Model for Predicting Inundation in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    CERN Document Server

    Loftis, Jon Derek; Hamilton, Stuart E; Forrest, David R

    2014-01-01

    We present the geospatial methods in conjunction with results of a newly developed storm surge and sub-grid inundation model which was applied in New York City during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Sub-grid modeling takes a novel approach for partial wetting and drying within grid cells, eschewing the conventional hydrodynamic modeling method by nesting a sub-grid containing high-resolution lidar topography and fine scale bathymetry within each computational grid cell. In doing so, the sub-grid modeling method is heavily dependent on building and street configuration provided by the DEM. The results of spatial comparisons between the sub-grid model and FEMA's maximum inundation extents in New York City yielded an unparalleled absolute mean distance difference of 38m and an average of 75% areal spatial match. An in-depth error analysis reveals that the modeled extent contour is well correlated with the FEMA extent contour in most areas, except in several distinct areas where differences in special features cause sig...

  10. Modelling sub-grid wetland in the ORCHIDEE global land surface model: evaluation against river discharges and remotely sensed data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Ringeval

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The quality of the global hydrological simulations performed by land surface models (LSMs strongly depends on processes that occur at unresolved spatial scales. Approaches such as TOPMODEL have been developed, which allow soil moisture redistribution within each grid-cell, based upon sub-grid scale topography. Moreover, the coupling between TOPMODEL and a LSM appears as a potential way to simulate wetland extent dynamic and its sensitivity to climate, a recently identified research problem for biogeochemical modelling, including methane emissions. Global evaluation of the coupling between TOPMODEL and an LSM is difficult, and prior attempts have been indirect, based on the evaluation of the simulated river flow. This study presents a new way to evaluate this coupling, within the ORCHIDEE LSM, using remote sensing data of inundated areas. Because of differences in nature between the satellite derived information – inundation extent – and the variable diagnosed by TOPMODEL/ORCHIDEE – area at maximum soil water content, the evaluation focuses on the spatial distribution of these two quantities as well as on their temporal variation. Despite some difficulties in exactly matching observed localized inundated events, we obtain a rather good agreement in the distribution of these two quantities at a global scale. Floodplains are not accounted for in the model, and this is a major limitation. The difficulty of reproducing the year-to-year variability of the observed inundated area (for instance, the decreasing trend by the end of 90s is also underlined. Classical indirect evaluation based on comparison between simulated and observed river flow is also performed and underlines difficulties to simulate river flow after coupling with TOPMODEL. The relationship between inundation and river flow at the basin scale in the model is analyzed, using both methods (evaluation against remote sensing data and river flow. Finally, we discuss the potential of

  11. Sub-Grid Modeling of Electrokinetic Effects in Micro Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. P.

    2005-01-01

    Advances in micro-fabrication processes have generated tremendous interests in miniaturizing chemical and biomedical analyses into integrated microsystems (Lab-on-Chip devices). To successfully design and operate the micro fluidics system, it is essential to understand the fundamental fluid flow phenomena when channel sizes are shrink to micron or even nano dimensions. One important phenomenon is the electro kinetic effect in micro/nano channels due to the existence of the electrical double layer (EDL) near a solid-liquid interface. Not only EDL is responsible for electro-osmosis pumping when an electric field parallel to the surface is imposed, EDL also causes extra flow resistance (the electro-viscous effect) and flow anomaly (such as early transition from laminar to turbulent flow) observed in pressure-driven microchannel flows. Modeling and simulation of electro-kinetic effects on micro flows poses significant numerical challenge due to the fact that the sizes of the double layer (10 nm up to microns) are very thin compared to channel width (can be up to 100 s of m). Since the typical thickness of the double layer is extremely small compared to the channel width, it would be computationally very costly to capture the velocity profile inside the double layer by placing sufficient number of grid cells in the layer to resolve the velocity changes, especially in complex, 3-d geometries. Existing approaches using "slip" wall velocity and augmented double layer are difficult to use when the flow geometry is complicated, e.g. flow in a T-junction, X-junction, etc. In order to overcome the difficulties arising from those two approaches, we have developed a sub-grid integration method to properly account for the physics of the double layer. The integration approach can be used on simple or complicated flow geometries. Resolution of the double layer is not needed in this approach, and the effects of the double layer can be accounted for at the same time. With this

  12. The Storm Surge and Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy inflicted heavy damage in New York City and the New Jersey coast as the second costliest storm in history. A large-scale, unstructured grid storm tide model, Semi-implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element (SELFE, was used to hindcast water level variation during Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic portion of the U.S. East Coast. The model was forced by eight tidal constituents at the model’s open boundary, 1500 km away from the coast, and the wind and pressure fields from atmospheric model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS provided by Weatherflow Inc. The comparisons of the modeled storm tide with the NOAA gauge stations from Montauk, NY, Long Island Sound, encompassing New York Harbor, Atlantic City, NJ, to Duck, NC, were in good agreement, with an overall root mean square error and relative error in the order of 15–20 cm and 5%–7%, respectively. Furthermore, using large-scale model outputs as the boundary conditions, a separate sub-grid model that incorporates LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City was also set up to investigate the detailed inundation process. The model results compared favorably with USGS’ Hurricane Sandy Mapper database in terms of its timing, local inundation area, and the depth of the flooding water. The street-level inundation with water bypassing the city building was created and the maximum extent of horizontal inundation was calculated, which was within 30 m of the data-derived estimate by USGS.

  13. Impacts of small-scale variability on the determination of bulk thermal diffusivity in snowpacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldroyd, H. J.; Higgins, C. W.; Huwald, H.; Selker, J. S.; Parlange, M. B.

    2012-04-01

    Thermal diffusivity of snow is an important physical property associated with key hydrological phenomena such as snowmelt and heat and water vapor exchange with the atmosphere. These phenomena have broad implications in studies of climate and heat and water budgets on many scales. Furthermore, sub grid scale phenomena may enhance these heat and mass exchanges in the snow pack due to its porous nature. We hypothesize that the heat transfer effects of these small-scale variabilities may be seen as an increased bulk thermal diffusivity of the snow. Direct measurements of snow thermal diffusivity require coupled measurements of thermal conductivity and density, which are nonstationary due to snow metamorphism. Furthermore, thermal conductivity measurements are typically obtained with specialized heating probes or plates and snow density measurements require digging snow pits. Therefore, direct measurements are difficult to obtain with high enough temporal resolution such that direct comparisons with atmospheric conditions can be made. This study uses highly resolved temperature measurements from the Plaine Morte glacier in Switzerland as initial and boundary conditions to numerically solve the 1D heat equation and iteratively optimize for thermal diffusivity. The method uses flux boundary conditions to constrain thermal diffusivity such that spuriously high values in thermal diffusivity are eliminated. Additionally, a t-test ensuring statistical significance between solutions of varied thermal diffusivity results in further constraints on thermal diffusivity that eliminate spuriously low values. The results show that time resolved thermal diffusivity can be determined from easily implemented and inexpensive temperature measurements of seasonal snow with good agreement to widely used parameterizations based on snow density. This high time resolution further affords the ability to explore possible turbulence-induced enhancements to heat and mass transfer in the snow.

  14. Evaluation of a Sub-Grid Topographic Drag Parameterizations for Modeling Surface Wind Speed During Storms Over Complex Terrain in the Northeast U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frediani, M. E.; Hacker, J.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hopson, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    This study aims at improving regional simulation of 10-meter wind speed by verifying PBL schemes for storms at different scales, including convective storms, blizzards, tropical storms and nor'easters over complex terrain in the northeast U.S. We verify a recently proposed sub-grid topographic drag scheme in stormy conditions and compare it with two PBL schemes (Mellor-Yamada and Yonsei University) from WRF-ARW over a region in the Northeast U.S. The scheme was designed to adjust the surface drag over regions with high subgrid-scale topographic variability. The schemes are compared using spatial, temporal, and pattern criteria against surface observations. The spatial and temporal criteria are defined by season, diurnal cycle, and topography; the pattern, is based on clusters derived using clustering analysis. Results show that the drag scheme reduces the positive bias of low wind speeds, but over-corrects the high wind speeds producing a magnitude-increasing negative bias with increasing speed. Both other schemes underestimate the most frequent low-speed mode and overestimate the high-speeds. Error characteristics of all schemes respond to seasonal and diurnal cycle changes. The Topo-wind experiment shows the best agreement with the observation quantiles in summer and fall, the best representation of the diurnal cycle in these seasons, and reduces the bias of all surface stations near the coast. In more stable conditions the Topo-wind scheme shows a larger negative bias. The cluster analysis reveals a correlation between bias and mean speed from the Mellor-Yamada and Yonsei University schemes that is not present when the drag scheme is used. When the drag scheme is used the bias correlates with wind direction; the bias increases when the meridional wind component is negative. This pattern corresponds to trajectories with more land interaction with the highest biases found in northwest circulation clusters.

  15. Autonomous Operation of Hybrid Microgrid with AC and DC Sub-Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loh, Poh Chiang; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates on the active and reactive power sharing of an autonomous hybrid microgrid. Unlike existing microgrids which are purely ac, the hybrid microgrid studied here comprises dc and ac sub-grids, interconnected by power electronic interfaces. The main challenge here is to manage...... the power flow among all the sources distributed throughout the two types of sub-grids, which certainly is tougher than previous efforts developed for only either ac or dc microgrid. This wider scope of control has not yet been investigated, and would certainly rely on the coordinated operation of dc...... sources, ac sources and interlinking converters. Suitable control and normalization schemes are therefore developed for controlling them with results presented for showing the overall performance of the hybrid microgrid....

  16. Effects of the synoptic scale variability on the thermohaline circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Taboada

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the effect of the synoptic scale variability is analyzed using a simple atmosphere-ocean coupled model. This high frequency variability has been taken into account in the model adding white gaussian noise in variables related to zonal and meridional temperature differences. Results show that synoptic scale frequency variability on longitudinal heating contrast between land and sea can produce a collapse of thermohaline circulation when a threshold of noise is overcome. This result is significant because if synoptic scale variability in the next century increases due to the climatic change an increment of the probability of this collapse could be produced.

  17. Short time-scale variability in the Faint Sky Variability Survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morales-Rueda, L.; Groot, P.J.; Augusteijn, T.; Nelemans, G.A.; Vreeswijk, P.M.; Besselaar, E.J.M. van den

    2006-01-01

    We present the V-band variability analysis of the point sources in the Faint Sky Variability Survey on time-scales from 24 min to tens of days. We find that about one per cent of the point sources down to V = 24 are variables. We discuss the variability-detection probabilities for each field

  18. Meso-scale wind variability. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, S.; Larsen, X.; Vincent, C.; Soerensen, P.; Pinson, P.; Trombe, P.-J.; Madsen, H.; Cutululis, N.

    2011-11-15

    The project has aimed to characterize mesoscale meteorological phenomenon for the North Sea and the Inner Danish waters, and additionally aimed on improving the predictability and quality of the power production from offshore windfarms. The meso-scale meteorology has been characterized with respect to the physical processes, climatology, spectral characteristics and correlation properties based on measurements from wind farms, satellite data (SAR) and mesoscale numerical modeling (WRF). The abilities of the WRF model to characterize and predict relevant mesoscale phenomenon has been proven. Additionally application of statistical forecasting, using a Markov switching approach that can be related to the meteorological conditions, to analyze and short term predict the power production from an offshore wind farms have been documented. Two PhD studies have been conducted in connection with the project. The project has been a cooperative project between Risoe DTU, IMM DTU, DONG Energy, Vattenfall and VESTAS. It is registered as Energinet.dk, project no. 2007-1-7141. (Author)

  19. Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

    2017-08-01

    The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over

  20. Scaling of Growth Rate Volatility for Six Macroeconomic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Podobnik

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We study the annual growth rates of six macroeconomic variables: public debt, public health expenditures, exports of goods, government consumption expenditures, total exports of goods and services, and total imports of goods and services. For each variable, we find (i that the distribution of the growth rate residuals approximately follows a double exponential (Laplace distribution and (ii that the standard deviation of growth rate residuals scales according to the size of the variable as a power law, with a scaling exponent similar to the scaling exponent found for GDP [Economics Letters 60, 335 (1998]. We hypothesise that the volatility scaling we find for these GDP constituents causes the volatility scaling found in GDP data.

  1. Sub-grid combustion modeling for compressible two-phase reacting flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankaran, Vaidyanathan

    2003-06-01

    A generic formulation for modeling the turbulent combustion in compressible, high Reynolds number, two-phase; reacting flows has been developed and validated. A sub-grid mixing/combustion model called Linear Eddy Mixing (LEM) model has been extended to compressible flows and used inside the framework of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) in this LES-LEM approach. The LES-LEM approach is based on the proposition that the basic mechanistic distinction between the convective and the molecular effects should be preserved for accurate prediction of complex flow-fields such as those encountered in many combustion systems. Liquid droplets (represented by computational parcels) are tracked using the Lagrangian approach wherein the Newton's equation of motion for the discrete particles are integrated explicitly in the Eulerian gas field. The gas phase LES velocity fields are used to estimate the instantaneous gas velocity at the droplet location. Drag effects due to the droplets on the gas phase and the heat transfer between the gas and the liquid phase are explicitly included. Thus, full coupling is achieved between the two phases in the simulation. Validation of the compressible LES-LEM approach is conducted by simulating the flow-field in an operational General Electric Aircraft Engines combustor (LM6000). The results predicted using the proposed approach compares well with the experiments and a conventional (G-equation) thin-flame model. Particle tracking algorithms used in the present study are validated by simulating droplet laden temporal mixing layers. Quantitative and qualitative comparison with the results of spectral DNS exhibits good agreement. Simulations using the current LES-LEM for freely propagating partially premixed flame in a droplet-laden isotropic turbulent field correctly captures the flame structure in the partially premixed flames. Due to the strong spatial variation of equivalence ratio a broad flame similar to a premixed flame is realized. The current

  2. Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiviluoma, Juha [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Holttinen, Hannele [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo Finland; Weir, David [Energy Department, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo Norway; Scharff, Richard [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Söder, Lennart [Royal Institute of Technology, Electric Power Systems, Stockholm Sweden; Menemenlis, Nickie [Institut de recherche Hydro-Québec, Montreal Canada; Cutululis, Nicolaos A. [DTU, Wind Energy, Roskilde Denmark; Danti Lopez, Irene [Electricity Research Centre, University College Dublin, Dublin Ireland; Lannoye, Eamonn [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto California USA; Estanqueiro, Ana [LNEG, Laboratorio Nacional de Energia e Geologia, UESEO, Lisbon Spain; Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio [Renewable Energy Research Institute and DIEEAC/EDII-AB, Castilla-La Mancha University, Albacete Spain; Zhang, Qin [State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing China; Bai, Jianhua [State Grid Energy Research Institute Beijing, Beijing China; Wan, Yih-Huei [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA; Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Transmission and Grid Integration Group, Golden Colorado USA

    2015-10-25

    The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1 h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.

  3. Information transfer across the scales of climate data variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav

    2015-04-01

    Multitude of scales characteristic of the climate system variability requires innovative approaches in analysis of instrumental time series. We present a methodology which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited band-with, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. In particular, an information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality is applied together with surrogate data testing methods [1]. The method [2] uncovers causal influence (in the Granger sense) and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of daily mean surface air temperature from various European locations an information transfer from larger to smaller scales has been observed as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 7-8 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to annual and quasi-biennial scales [3]. In sea surface temperature data from the tropical Pacific area an influence of quasi-oscillatory phenomena with periods around 4-6 years on the variability on and near the annual scale has been observed. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [2] M. Palus, Entropy 16(10), 5263-5289 (2014) [3] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 078702 (2014)

  4. Use of fundamental condensation heat transfer experiments for the development of a sub-grid liquid jet condensation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buschman, Francis X., E-mail: Francis.Buschman@unnpp.gov; Aumiller, David L.

    2017-02-15

    Highlights: • Direct contact condensation data on liquid jets up to 1.7 MPa in pure steam and in the presence of noncondensable gas. • Identified a pressure effect on the impact of noncondensables to suppress condensation heat transfer not captured in existing data or correlations. • Pure steam data is used to develop a new correlation for condensation heat transfer on subcooled liquid jets. • Noncondensable data used to develop a modification to the renewal time estimate used in the Young and Bajorek correlation for condensation suppression in the presence of noncondensables. • A jet injection boundary condition, using a sub-grid jet condensation model, is developed for COBRA-IE which provides a more detailed estimate of the condensation rate on the liquid jet and allows the use of jet specific closure relationships. - Abstract: Condensation on liquid jets is an important phenomenon for many different facets of nuclear power plant transients and analyses such as containment spray cooling. An experimental facility constructed at the Pennsylvania State University, the High Pressure Liquid Jet Condensation Heat Transfer facility (HPLJCHT), has been used to perform steady-state condensation heat transfer experiments in which the temperature of the liquid jet is measured at different axial locations allowing the condensation rate to be determined over the jet length. Test data have been obtained in a pure steam environment and with varying concentrations of noncondensable gas. This data extends the available jet condensation data from near atmospheric pressure up to a pressure of 1.7 MPa. An empirical correlation for the liquid side condensation heat transfer coefficient has been developed based on the data obtained in pure steam. The data obtained with noncondensable gas were used to develop a correlation for the renewal time as used in the condensation suppression model developed by Young and Bajorek. This paper describes a new sub-grid liquid jet

  5. Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

  6. Spatial and temporal precipitation variability across scales: regional to global, decadal to centennial scales and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lima, Isabel; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2017-04-01

    The investigation of changes in precipitation variability in the Anthropocene requires both data with adequate resolution and length as well as an appropriate theoretical framework, because wide ranges of scales should be explored. We suggest several ways forward to characterize precipitation variability across scales based on the systematic application of scaling fluctuation analysis to characterizing different precipitation scaling regimes (weather, macroweather, climate - from higher to lower frequencies). Our study uses three qualitatively different global scale precipitation products (from gauges, reanalyses and a satellite and gauge hybrid) that allow to investigate precipitation from monthly to centennial scales and in space from planetary down to 5°x5° scales. The information gathered this way on the fundamental nature of centennial and multicentennial precipitation variability is impossible to derive from proxy data. The key finding from our study is that, in macroweather, precipitation - similarly to other atmospheric fields - have scaling properties characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents, which implies - contrary to the weather and climate regimes - that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out. In the pre-industrial period and the Anthropocene, the macroweather regime spans different ranges of time scales: the lower limit is about a month, but whereas the upper limit is up to ≈20-30 years in the industrial period, this limit is believed to extend to centuries or longer in the pre-industrial epoch, although it is yet not well established. The improved understanding of monthly to centennial scale precipitation variability opens new perspectives to separating natural and anthropogenic precipitation variability, and quantifying anthropogenic changes in precipitation. These techniques can be applied to temperature and other climatological data.

  7. Quantification and scaling of multipartite entanglement in continuous variable systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adesso, Gerardo; Serafini, Alessio; Illuminati, Fabrizio

    2004-11-26

    We present a theoretical method to determine the multipartite entanglement between different partitions of multimode, fully or partially symmetric Gaussian states of continuous variable systems. For such states, we determine the exact expression of the logarithmic negativity and show that it coincides with that of equivalent two-mode Gaussian states. Exploiting this reduction, we demonstrate the scaling of the multipartite entanglement with the number of modes and its reliable experimental estimate by direct measurements of the global and local purities.

  8. Scales of snow depth variability in high elevation rangeland sagebrush

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedesche, Molly E.; Fassnacht, Steven R.; Meiman, Paul J.

    2017-09-01

    In high elevation semi-arid rangelands, sagebrush and other shrubs can affect transport and deposition of wind-blown snow, enabling the formation of snowdrifts. Datasets from three field experiments were used to investigate the scales of spatial variability of snow depth around big mountain sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) at a high elevation plateau rangeland in North Park, Colorado, during the winters of 2002, 2003, and 2008. Data were collected at multiple resolutions (0.05 to 25 m) and extents (2 to 1000 m). Finer scale data were collected specifically for this study to examine the correlation between snow depth, sagebrush microtopography, the ground surface, and the snow surface, as well as the temporal consistency of snow depth patterns. Variograms were used to identify the spatial structure and the Moran's I statistic was used to determine the spatial correlation. Results show some temporal consistency in snow depth at several scales. Plot scale snow depth variability is partly a function of the nature of individual shrubs, as there is some correlation between the spatial structure of snow depth and sagebrush, as well as between the ground and snow depth. The optimal sampling resolution appears to be 25-cm, but over a large area, this would require a multitude of samples, and thus a random stratified approach is recommended with a fine measurement resolution of 5-cm.

  9. Non-linear variability in geophysics scaling and fractals

    CERN Document Server

    Lovejoy, S

    1991-01-01

    consequences of broken symmetry -here parity-is studied. In this model, turbulence is dominated by a hierarchy of helical (corkscrew) structures. The authors stress the unique features of such pseudo-scalar cascades as well as the extreme nature of the resulting (intermittent) fluctuations. Intermittent turbulent cascades was also the theme of a paper by us in which we show that universality classes exist for continuous cascades (in which an infinite number of cascade steps occur over a finite range of scales). This result is the multiplicative analogue of the familiar central limit theorem for the addition of random variables. Finally, an interesting paper by Pasmanter investigates the scaling associated with anomolous diffusion in a chaotic tidal basin model involving a small number of degrees of freedom. Although the statistical literature is replete with techniques for dealing with those random processes characterized by both exponentially decaying (non-scaling) autocorrelations and exponentially decaying...

  10. Decoupling Shoreline Behavior Over Variable Time and Space Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, C. J.; Plant, N. G.; Henderson, R.; Schwab, W. C.; Nelson, T. R.

    2016-12-01

    A combination of small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes drives shoreline change on time scales ranging from single storm events to decades. The relative importance of storm processes versus geological control on event response and long-term evolution of barrier islands is largely unknown but is important for understanding decadal-scale evolution Here, we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along Fire Island, NY, a 50-km long barrier island, on timescales that resolve storms and decadal variations over a period of 80 yrs. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions to identify coherent patterns of shoreline variability that can be correlated to oceanographic or geologic framework parameters to help identify the controlling short-term or long-term processes. The analysis shows that storm response and recovery dominates the shoreline behavior on the largest spatial scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance that have a length scale of 1 km. The shoreline response to and recovery from Hurricane Sandy is included in this EOF analysis and indicates that this historic storm is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade. This suggests that Fire Island is historically, and continues to be, resilient to severe storms. A secondary mode of the EOF analysis supports that the framework geology of the barrier island system, represented by known variations in inner shelf bathymetry, sediment availability, beach-shoreface morphology, and long-term rates of shoreline change, controls multi-decadal shoreline evolution. The geologic processes that control the long-term morphodynamics result in the ends of the island responding in opposite phase to the central portion. A third mode reveals an intermediate-scale pattern that persists over both long and short-term time scales

  11. Global surface density variability on scales relevant to SWOT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drushka, K.; Gille, S. T.; Sprintall, J.; Johnson, L.; Hoang, C. C.

    2016-12-01

    In order to interpret SWOT measurements of sea surface height (SSH), better knowledge of the typical SSH variations on spatial scales measured by SWOT is needed. SWOT's performance will be evaluated in part based on the spectral slopes of wavenumber spectra measured from SSH, so there is a particular need to quantify wavenumber spectra globally. In the present study, we exploit historical surface density observations from shipboard thermosalinographs (TSGs), which make continuous underway measurements of temperature and salinity at 5 m depth. Though TSG measurements represent variations in the mixed layer rather than the column-integrated dynamic height variations that SWOT will sample, they nonetheless provide valuable information about where and when the ocean is energetic on the scales measured by SWOT. We use TSG data to characterize global surface density variations on horizontal scales of 2 to 150 km, with a focus on regional and seasonal patterns. Density fluctuations on these scales are found to be strongest where large-scale salinity or temperature gradients are strong, e.g. near boundary currents and river plumes. Outside of the subtropics, density variations tend to be dominated by salinity rather than temperature variability. Wavenumber spectra of surface density based on TSG data show distinctive latitudinal patterns; we discuss these in the context of predictions for quasi-geostrophy, surface quasi-geostrophy, and internal wave spectra.

  12. Fine-scale variability in harbor seal foraging behavior.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenady Wilson

    Full Text Available Understanding the variability of foraging behavior within a population of predators is important for determining their role in the ecosystem and how they may respond to future ecosystem changes. However, such variability has seldom been studied in harbor seals on a fine spatial scale (<30 km. We used a combination of standard and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to explore how environmental variables influenced the dive behavior of harbor seals. Time-depth recorders were deployed on harbor seals from two haul-out sites in the Salish Sea in 2007 (n = 18 and 2008 (n = 11. Three behavioral bout types were classified from six dive types within each bout; however, one of these bout types was related to haul-out activity and was excluded from analyses. Deep foraging bouts (Type I were the predominant type used throughout the study; however, variation in the use of bout types was observed relative to haul-out site, season, sex, and light (day/night. The proportional use of Type I and Type II (shallow foraging/traveling bouts differed dramatically between haul-out sites, seasons, sexes, and whether it was day or night; individual variability between seals also contributed to the observed differences. We hypothesize that this variation in dive behavior was related to habitat or prey specialization by seals from different haul-out sites, or individual variability between seals in the study area. The results highlight the potential influence of habitat and specialization on the foraging behavior of harbor seals, and may help explain the variability in diet that is observed between different haul-out site groups in this population.

  13. Dominant modes of variability in large-scale Birkeland currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousins, E. D. P.; Matsuo, Tomoko; Richmond, A. D.; Anderson, B. J.

    2015-08-01

    Properties of variability in large-scale Birkeland currents are investigated through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 1 week of data from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). Mean distributions and dominant modes of variability are identified for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Differences in the results from the two hemispheres are observed, which are attributed to seasonal differences in conductivity (the study period occurred near solstice). A universal mean and set of dominant modes of variability are obtained through combining the hemispheric results, and it is found that the mean and first three modes of variability (EOFs) account for 38% of the total observed squared magnetic perturbations (δB2) from both hemispheres. The mean distribution represents a standard Region 1/Region 2 (R1/R2) morphology of currents and EOF 1 captures the strengthening/weakening of the average distribution and is well correlated with the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). EOF 2 captures a mixture of effects including the expansion/contraction and rotation of the (R1/R2) currents; this mode correlates only weakly with possible external driving parameters. EOF 3 captures changes in the morphology of the currents in the dayside cusp region and is well correlated with the dawn-dusk component of the IMF. The higher-order EOFs capture more complex, smaller-scale variations in the Birkeland currents and appear generally uncorrelated with external driving parameters. The results of the EOF analysis described here are used for describing error covariance in a data assimilation procedure utilizing AMPERE data, as described in a companion paper.

  14. Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

    OpenAIRE

    Arnaud eDechesne; Nora eBadawi; Jens eAamand; Smets, Barth F.

    2014-01-01

    Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found signifi...

  15. Variability in large-scale wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiviluoma, Juha; Holttinen, Hannele; Weir, David

    2016-01-01

    The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net ...

  16. North Atlantic explosive cyclones and large scale atmospheric variability modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2015-04-01

    Extreme windstorms are one of the major natural catastrophes in the extratropics, one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe and are responsible for substantial economic damages and even fatalities. During the last decades Europe witnessed major damage from winter storms such as Lothar (December 1999), Kyrill (January 2007), Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010), Gong (January 2013) and Stephanie (February 2014) which exhibited uncommon characteristics. In fact, most of these storms crossed the Atlantic in direction of Europe experiencing an explosive development at unusual lower latitudes along the edge of the dominant North Atlantic storm track and reaching Iberia with an uncommon intensity (Liberato et al., 2011; 2013; Liberato 2014). Results show that the explosive cyclogenesis process of most of these storms at such low latitudes is driven by: (i) the southerly displacement of a very strong polar jet stream; and (ii) the presence of an atmospheric river (AR), that is, by a (sub)tropical moisture export over the western and central (sub)tropical Atlantic which converges into the cyclogenesis region and then moves along with the storm towards Iberia. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intense European windstorms. On the other hand, the NAO exerts a decisive control on the average latitudinal location of the jet stream over the North Atlantic basin (Woollings et al. 2010). In this work the link between North Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis, atmospheric rivers and large scale atmospheric variability modes is reviewed and discussed. Liberato MLR (2014) The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the north Atlantic: Large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 5-6, 16-28. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.002 Liberato MRL, Pinto JG, Trigo IF, Trigo RM. (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66:330-334. doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato

  17. Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dechesne, Arnaud; Badawi, N.; Aamand, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we...... critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates...... across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH) and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage), while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance...

  18. Multi-Scale Variability in the Ice-Table Depth at Potential Phoenix Landing Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sizemore, H. G.; Mellon, M. T.

    2006-03-01

    We employ numerical simulations of subsurface thermal behavior on Mars to address questions of ice-table depth and variability on all scales relevant to Phoenix, with particular emphasis on scales relevant to excavation.

  19. Cross-scale impact of climate temporal variability on ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Katul, Gabriel G.; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.

    2015-09-01

    While the importance of ecosystem functioning is undisputed in the context of climate change and Earth system modeling, the role of short-scale temporal variability of hydrometeorological forcing (~1 h) on the related ecosystem processes remains to be fully understood. Various impacts of meteorological forcing variability on water and carbon fluxes across a range of scales are explored here using numerical simulations. Synthetic meteorological drivers that highlight dynamic features of the short temporal scale in series of precipitation, temperature, and radiation are constructed. These drivers force a mechanistic ecohydrological model that propagates information content into the dynamics of water and carbon fluxes for an ensemble of representative ecosystems. The focus of the analysis is on a cross-scale effect of the short-scale forcing variability on the modeled evapotranspiration and ecosystem carbon assimilation. Interannual variability of water and carbon fluxes is emphasized in the analysis. The main study inferences are summarized as follows: (a) short-scale variability of meteorological input does affect water and carbon fluxes across a wide range of time scales, spanning from the hourly to the annual and longer scales; (b) different ecosystems respond to the various characteristics of the short-scale variability of the climate forcing in various ways, depending on dominant factors limiting system productivity; (c) whenever short-scale variability of meteorological forcing influences primarily fast processes such as photosynthesis, its impact on the slow-scale variability of water and carbon fluxes is small; and (d) whenever short-scale variability of the meteorological forcing impacts slow processes such as movement and storage of water in the soil, the effects of the variability can propagate to annual and longer time scales.

  20. Evaluation of Subgrid-Scale Transport of Hydrometeors in a PDF-based Scheme using High-Resolution CRM Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, M.; Ovchinnikov, M.; Wang, M.; Larson, V. E.

    2014-12-01

    In current climate models, the model resolution is too coarse to explicitly resolve deep convective systems. Parameterization schemes are therefore needed to represent the physical processes at the sub-grid scale. Recently, an approach based on assumed probability density functions (PDFs) has been developed to help unify the various parameterization schemes used in current global models. In particular, a unified parameterization scheme called the Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) scheme has been developed and tested successfully for shallow boundary-layer clouds. CLUBB's implementation in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5) is also being extended to treat deep convection cases, but parameterizing subgrid-scale vertical transport of hydrometeors remains a challenge. To investigate the roots of the problem and possible solutions, we generate a high-resolution benchmark simulation of a deep convection case using a cloud-resolving model (CRM) called System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM). We use the high-resolution 3D CRM results to assess the prognostic and diagnostic higher-order moments in CLUBB that are in relation to the subgrid-scale transport of hydrometeors. We also analyze the heat and moisture budgets in terms of CLUBB variables from the SAM benchmark simulation. The results from this study will be used to devise a better representation of vertical subgrid-scale transport of hydrometeors by utilizing the sub-grid variability information from CLUBB.

  1. Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dechesne, Arnaud; Badawi, Nora; Aamand, Jens; Smets, Barth F.

    2014-01-01

    Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates inter-studies comparisons. However, it is clear that the presence and activity of pesticide degraders is often highly spatially variable with coefficients of variation often exceeding 50% and frequently displays non-random spatial patterns. A few controlling factors have tentatively been identified across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH) and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage), while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance of spatial heterogeneity on the fate of pesticides in soil has been difficult to obtain but modeling and experimental systems that do not include soil's full complexity reveal that this heterogeneity must be considered to improve prediction of pesticide biodegradation rates or of leaching risks. Overall, studying the spatial heterogeneity of pesticide biodegradation is a relatively new field at the interface of agronomy, microbial ecology, and geosciences and a wealth of novel data is being collected from these different disciplinary perspectives. We make suggestions on possible avenues to take full advantage of these investigations for a better understanding and prediction of the fate of pesticides in soil. PMID:25538691

  2. Fine scale spatial variability of microbial pesticide degradation in soil: scales, controlling factors, and implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud eDechesne

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Pesticide biodegradation is a soil microbial function of critical importance for modern agriculture and its environmental impact. While it was once assumed that this activity was homogeneously distributed at the field scale, mounting evidence indicates that this is rarely the case. Here, we critically examine the literature on spatial variability of pesticide biodegradation in agricultural soil. We discuss the motivations, methods, and main findings of the primary literature. We found significant diversity in the approaches used to describe and quantify spatial heterogeneity, which complicates inter-studies comparisons. However, it is clear that the presence and activity of pesticide degraders is often highly spatially variable with coefficients of variation often exceeding 50% and frequently displays nonrandom spatial patterns. A few controlling factors have tentatively been identified across pesticide classes: they include some soil characteristics (pH and some agricultural management practices (pesticide application, tillage, while other potential controlling factors have more conflicting effects depending on the site or the pesticide. Evidence demonstrating the importance of spatial heterogeneity on the fate of pesticides in soil has been difficult to obtain but modelling and experimental systems that do not include soil’s full complexity reveal that this heterogeneity must be considered to improve prediction of pesticide biodegradation rates or of leaching risks. Overall, studying the spatial heterogeneity of pesticide biodegradation is a relatively new field at the interface of agronomy, microbial ecology, and geosciences and a wealth of novel data is being collected from these different disciplinary perspectives. We make suggestions on possible avenues to take full advantage of these investigations for a better understanding and prediction of the fate of pesticides in soil.

  3. Social Anxiety, Situational Variability, and the Self-Monitoring Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrenya, William K., Jr.

    Growing interest in self-presentation has spawned several examinations of individual differences in the tendency to manage one's impressions, notably Snyder's attempt to identify skilled impression managers through self-monitoring and an associated monitoring device, the Self-Monitoring Scale (SMS). To further examine the SMS, factor analyses were…

  4. Cascading the multiple stages of optical fractional Fourier transforms under different variable scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S; Wu, J; Li, C

    1995-06-15

    A simple but necessary condition for cascading the multiple stages of an optical fractional Fourier transform with different variable scales is presented. That condition permits more flexibility in the design of optical information-processing systems that use optical fractional Fourier transforms. We have expanded the optical applications of fractional Fourier transforms with adjustable variable scales.

  5. Psychological variables and Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-IV performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gass, Carlton S; Gutierrez, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The MMPI-2 and WAIS-IV are commonly used together in neuropsychological evaluations yet little is known about their interrelationships. This study explored the potential influence of psychological factors on WAIS-IV performance in a sample of 180 predominantly male veteran referrals that underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological examination in a VA Medical Center. Exclusionary criteria included failed performance validity testing and self-report distortion on the MMPI-2. A Principal Components Analysis was performed on the 15 MMPI-2 content scales, yielding three broader higher-order psychological dimensions: Internalized Emotional Dysfunction (IED), Externalized Emotional Dysfunction (EED), and Fear. Level of IED was not related to performance on the WAIS-IV Full Scale IQ or its four indexes: (Verbal Comprehension, Perceptual Reasoning, Working Memory, and Processing Speed). EED was not related to WAIS-IV performance. Level of Fear, which encompasses health preoccupations (HEA) and distorted perceptions (BIZ), was significantly related to WAIS-IV Full Scale IQ and Verbal Comprehension. These results challenge the common use of high scores on the MMPI-2 IED measures (chiefly depression and anxiety) to explain deficient WAIS-IV performance. In addition, they provide impetus for further investigation of the relation between verbal intelligence and Fear.

  6. Resolving meso-scale seabed variability using reflection measurements from an autonomous underwater vehicle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Charles W; Nielsen, Peter L; Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan

    2012-02-01

    Seabed geoacoustic variability is driven by geological processes that occur over a wide spectrum of space-time scales. While the acoustics community has some understanding of horizontal fine-scale geoacoustic variability, less than O(10(0)) m, and large-scale variability, greater than O(10(3)) m, there is a paucity of data resolving the geoacoustic meso-scale O(10(0)-10(3)) m. Measurements of the meso-scale along an ostensibly "benign" portion of the outer shelf reveal three classes of variability. The first class was expected and is due to horizontal variability of layer thicknesses: this was the only class that could be directly tied to seismic reflection data. The second class is due to rapid changes in layer properties and/or boundaries, occurring over scales of meters to hundreds of meters. The third class was observed as rapid variations of the angle/frequency dependent reflection coefficient within a single observation and is suggestive of variability at scales of meter or less. Though generally assumed to be negligible in acoustic modeling, the second and third classes are indicative of strong horizontal geoacoustic variability within a given layer. The observations give early insight into possible effects of horizontal geoacoustic variability on long-range acoustic propagation and reverberation. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

  7. Analysis of world economic variables using multidimensional scaling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J A Tenreiro Machado

    Full Text Available Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

  8. Analysis of world economic variables using multidimensional scaling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, J A Tenreiro; Mata, Maria Eugénia

    2015-01-01

    Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene.

  9. A link between low-frequency mesoscale eddy variability around Madagascar and the large-scale Indian Ocean variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palastanga, V.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313947112; van Leeuwen, P.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/102655758; de Ruijter, W.P.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/068476760

    2006-01-01

    A connection is shown to exist between the mesoscale eddy activity around Madagascar and the large-scale interannual variability in the Indian Ocean. We use the combined TOPEX/Poseidon-ERS sea surface height (SSH) data for the period 1993– 2003. The SSH-fields in the Mozambique Channel and east of

  10. On the use of variability time-scales as an early classifier of radio transients and variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietka, M.; Staley, T. D.; Pretorius, M. L.; Fender, R. P.

    2017-11-01

    We have shown previously that a broad correlation between the peak radio luminosity and the variability time-scales, approximately L ∝ τ5, exists for variable synchrotron emitting sources and that different classes of astrophysical sources occupy different regions of luminosity and time-scale space. Based on those results, we investigate whether the most basic information available for a newly discovered radio variable or transient - their rise and/or decline rate - can be used to set initial constraints on the class of events from which they originate. We have analysed a sample of ≈800 synchrotron flares, selected from light curves of ≈90 sources observed at 5-8 GHz, representing a wide range of astrophysical phenomena, from flare stars to supermassive black holes. Selection of outbursts from the noisy radio light curves has been done automatically in order to ensure reproducibility of results. The distribution of rise/decline rates for the selected flares is modelled as a Gaussian probability distribution for each class of object, and further convolved with estimated areal density of that class in order to correct for the strong bias in our sample. We show in this way that comparing the measured variability time-scale of a radio transient/variable of unknown origin can provide an early, albeit approximate, classification of the object, and could form part of a suite of measurements used to provide early categorization of such events. Finally, we also discuss the effect scintillating sources will have on our ability to classify events based on their variability time-scales.

  11. Multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation over the headwater catchments in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Jun; Chen, Ji; Wang, Keyi; Sivakumar, Bellie

    2017-08-01

    This paper examines the multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation over 16 headwater catchments in the Pearl River basin, South China. The long-term daily streamflow data (1952-2000), obtained using a macro-scale hydrological model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and a routing scheme, are studied. Temporal features of streamflow variability at 10 different timescales, ranging from 6 days to 8.4 years, are revealed with the Haar wavelet transform. The principal component analysis (PCA) is performed to categorize the headwater catchments with the coherent modes of multi-scale wavelet spectra. The results indicate that three distinct modes, with different variability distributions at small timescales and seasonal scales, can explain 95% of the streamflow variability. A large majority of the catchments (i.e. 12 out of 16) exhibit consistent mode feature on multi-scale variability throughout three sub-periods (1952-1968, 1969-1984, and 1985-2000). The multi-scale streamflow variability responses to precipitation are identified to be associated with the regional flood and drought tendency over the headwater catchments in southern China.

  12. Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes in Romania and associated large‐scale mechanisms

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Busuioc, Aristita; Dobrinescu, Andreea; Birsan, Marius‐Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Orzan, Alina

    2015-01-01

    ...‐scale mechanisms responsible for this variability on the other are examined. Ten indices associated with temperature and precipitation extremes computed at high spatial resolution for the period 1961–2010 are analysed...

  13. Spatial Variability of Flow in Coarse, Unsaturated Mining Material: Results from Field-Scale Infiltration Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, G. G.; Tyler, S. W.; van Zyl, D. J.; Collord, J.

    2003-12-01

    The spatial distribution of fluid flow during unsaturated conditions within an active gold mining heap-leach facility was studied. Flow and percolate chemistry data was recorded from free-drainage lysimeters. Highly variable flow was observed between lysimeters during steady-state infiltration conditions. The cause of the variability was determined to be more the result of highly spatially variable hydraulic properties than the variable distribution of applied flux to the surface. Using stochastically distributed hydraulic conductivity scaling factors, the variability of flow was reasonably reproduced with numerical simulations (HYDRUS-2D).

  14. Homogeneity Analysis with "k" Sets of Variables: An Alternating Least Squares Method with Optimal Scaling Features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Burg, Eeke; de Leeuw, Jan

    1988-01-01

    Homogeneity analysis (multiple correspondence analysis), which is usually applied to "k" separate variables, was applied to sets of variables by using sums within sets. The resulting technique, OVERALS, uses optimal scaling. The corresponding OVERALS computer program minimizes a least squares loss function via an alternating least…

  15. Intraspecific variability of the Siberian larch Larix sibirica Ledeb. seed scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Barchenkov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The results of the study of morphological features variability of the Siberian larch seed scales are presented in the paper. Variation of seed scales size, forms of flat and scale edge ofithave been analyzed. Population analysis has been carried out on the phenotypic races and, depending on growing conditions. Four races of the Siberian larch have been investigated. The populations from highlands and low mountains sites of every race have been studied. Samples of seed scales have been selected from thirty trees on each plot. The length and widthof the seed scale, the form index of scaleand the edge form ofseed scale have been considered. The classification of trees on tight scale, wide scale and intermediate forms have been carried out in accordance with the index form of seed scales. The geographic variation analysis of seed scales sizes showed the differentiation of features between races, and, depending on growing conditions. The trees with small scales dominate in larch populations of Baikal race of this species. The largest seed scales have been found in the trees of Sayan race populations in the Kuznetsky Alatau low mountains sites. Polymorphism in the form of seed scale and form its edge has been detected in the studied larch populations. The dominance of «wide scale» and «intermediate» forms trees have been observed in the northern populations (the polar race. The «intermediate» form trees on type flat seed scale predominate in populations of the Sayan race. The most variability of seed scale forms have been found in populations of the Altai and Sayan races. Increased occurrence of wide scale form in the upper mountain belt have been found in both races (more than 50 %. In contrast, more than 50 % of the trees that have cones of tight scale form have been revealed in populations of the Baikal Olkhon Island at altitude of 500 meters above sea level.

  16. A sub-grid, mixture-fraction-based thermodynamic equilibrium model for gas phase combustion in FIRETEC: development and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. M. Clark; T. H. Fletcher; R. R. Linn

    2010-01-01

    The chemical processes of gas phase combustion in wildland fires are complex and occur at length-scales that are not resolved in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of landscape-scale wildland fire. A new approach for modelling fire chemistry in HIGRAD/FIRETEC (a landscape-scale CFD wildfire model) applies a mixture– fraction model relying on thermodynamic...

  17. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

  18. How uncertainty in socio-economic variables affects large-scale transport model forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    time, especially with respect to large-scale transport models. The study described in this paper contributes to fill the gap by investigating the effects of uncertainty in socio-economic variables growth rate projections on large-scale transport model forecasts, using the Danish National Transport...

  19. The Formal Elements Art Therapy Scale: A Measurement System for Global Variables in Art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gantt, Linda M.

    2009-01-01

    The Formal Elements Art Therapy Scale (FEATS) is a measurement system for applying numbers to global variables in two-dimensional art (drawing and painting). While it was originally developed for use with the single-picture assessment ("Draw a person picking an apple from a tree" [PPAT]), researchers can also apply many of the 14 scales of the…

  20. Discrete Scale Invariance in the Cascade Heart Rate Variability Of Healthy Humans

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Der Chyan

    2004-01-01

    Evidence of discrete scale invariance (DSI) in daytime healthy heart rate variability (HRV) is presented based on the log-periodic power law scaling of the heart beat interval increment. Our analysis suggests multiple DSI groups and a dynamic cascading process. A cascade model is presented to simulate such a property.

  1. Variability in Population Abundance is Associated with Thresholds between Scaling Regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Wardwell

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Discontinuous structure in landscapes may result in discontinuous, aggregated species body-mass patterns, reflecting the scales of structure available to animal communities within a landscape. The edges of these body-mass aggregations reflect transitions between available scales of landscape structure. Such transitions, or scale breaks, are theoretically associated with increased biological variability. We hypothesized that variability in population abundance is greater in animal species near the edge of body-mass aggregations than it is in species that are situated in the interior of body-mass aggregations. We tested this hypothesis by examining both temporal and spatial variability in the abundance of species in the bird community of the Florida Everglades sub-ecoregion, USA. Analyses of both temporal and spatial variability in population abundance supported our hypothesis. Our results indicate that variability within complex systems may be non-random, and is heightened where transitions in scales of process and structure occur. This is the first explicit test of the hypothetical relationship between increased population variability and scale breaks.

  2. Variable speed pumped storage system fed by large-scale cycloconverter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T, Taguchi. (The Tokyo Electric Power Co. Inc., Tokyo (Japan)); Mukai, K.; Yanagisawa, T.; Kanai, T. (Toshiba Corp., Tokyo (Japan))

    1992-01-01

    The world{prime}s first variable speed pumped storage system fed by large-scale cycloconverter was brought into operation at the Yagisawa power station Unit 2 of Tokyo Electric Power Co. in December, 1990. The present paper introduces an outline and operation results of this system. This remarkable system incorporates the latest large-scale, large-capacity power electronics technology, ultrahigh-speed digital control technology, and large-scale, large-capacity generator-motor technology. From the actual machine tests conducted at the Yagisawa power station, various functions of the variable speed pumped storage system were verified. The variable speed system enabled to regulate the input of the pump within the range of about 50 to 85MW. Additionally, in the turbine operation, vibration of the pump-turbine was improved by operating with the optimum rotating speed. Furthermore, the variable speed system did not cause unstable condition of power swing. 4 refs., 16 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. A variational multi-scale method with spectral approximation of the sub-scales: Application to the 1D advection-diffusion equations

    KAUST Repository

    Chacón Rebollo, Tomás

    2015-03-01

    This paper introduces a variational multi-scale method where the sub-grid scales are computed by spectral approximations. It is based upon an extension of the spectral theorem to non necessarily self-adjoint elliptic operators that have an associated base of eigenfunctions which are orthonormal in weighted L2 spaces. This allows to element-wise calculate the sub-grid scales by means of the associated spectral expansion. We propose a feasible VMS-spectral method by truncation of this spectral expansion to a finite number of modes. We apply this general framework to the convection-diffusion equation, by analytically computing the family of eigenfunctions. We perform a convergence and error analysis. We also present some numerical tests that show the stability of the method for an odd number of spectral modes, and an improvement of accuracy in the large resolved scales, due to the adding of the sub-grid spectral scales.

  4. Response of Fish Communities to Various Environmental Variables across Multiple Spatial Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Yong-Su; Li, Fengqing; Chung, Namil; Bae, Mi-Jung; Hwang, Soon-Jin; Byoen, Myeong-Seop; Park, Sang-Jung; Park, Young-Seuk

    2012-01-01

    A better understanding of the relative importance of different spatial scale determinants on fish communities will eventually increase the accuracy and precision of their bioassessments. Many studies have described the influence of environmental variables on fish communities on multiple spatial scales. However, there is very limited information available on this topic for the East Asian monsoon region, including Korea. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between fish communities and environmental variables at multiple spatial scales using self-organizing map (SOM), random forest, and theoretical path models. The SOM explored differences among fish communities, reflecting environmental gradients, such as a longitudinal gradient from upstream to downstream, and differences in land cover types and water quality. The random forest model for predicting fish community patterns that used all 14 environmental variables was more powerful than a model using any single variable or other combination of environmental variables, and the random forest model was effective at predicting the occurrence of species and evaluating the contribution of environmental variables to that prediction. The theoretical path model described the responses of different species to their environment at multiple spatial scales, showing the importance of altitude, forest, and water quality factors to fish assemblages. PMID:23202766

  5. Quantifying variability in earthquake rupture models using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, Hoby

    2015-04-22

    Finite-fault earthquake source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same earthquake. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture models. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify model variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture models quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of model variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture models. As case studies, we examine inverted models from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published models of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference model and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for models with large variability. We also find that the models for the Tohoku earthquake derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other models. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for

  6. Analytic Tools for Evaluating Variability of Standard Errors in Large-Scale Establishment Surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cho MoonJung

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Large-scale establishment surveys often exhibit substantial temporal or cross-sectional variability in their published standard errors. This article uses a framework defined by survey generalized variance functions to develop three sets of analytic tools for the evaluation of these patterns of variability. These tools are for (1 identification of predictor variables that explain some of the observed temporal and cross-sectional variability in published standard errors; (2 evaluation of the proportion of variability attributable to the abovementioned predictors, equation error and estimation error, respectively; and (3 comparison of equation error variances across groups defined by observable predictor variables. The primary ideas are motivated and illustrated by an application to the U.S. Current Employment Statistics program.

  7. Spatial Downscaling of TRMM Precipitation Using Geostatistics and Fine Scale Environmental Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    No-Wook Park

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A geostatistical downscaling scheme is presented and can generate fine scale precipitation information from coarse scale Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM data by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. Within the geostatistical framework, the TRMM precipitation data are first decomposed into trend and residual components. Quantitative relationships between coarse scale TRMM data and environmental variables are then estimated via regression analysis and used to derive trend components at a fine scale. Next, the residual components, which are the differences between the trend components and the original TRMM data, are then downscaled at a target fine scale via area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components are finally added to generate fine scale precipitation estimates. Stochastic simulation is also applied to the residual components in order to generate multiple alternative realizations and to compute uncertainty measures. From an experiment using a digital elevation model (DEM and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, the geostatistical downscaling scheme generated the downscaling results that reflected detailed characteristics with better predictive performance, when compared with downscaling without the environmental variables. Multiple realizations and uncertainty measures from simulation also provided useful information for interpretations and further environmental modeling.

  8. Stochastic variability of large-scale oceanic flows above topography anomalies

    CERN Document Server

    Venaille, Antoine; Molines, J -M; Barnier, B

    2011-01-01

    Large-scale oceanic currents show large fluctuations at decadal, centennial and even millennial time scales. Here, we describe a new stochastic variability mechanism which is genuinely internal to the ocean, i.e. not due to fluctuations in atmospheric forcing. The key ingredient is the existence of closed contours of bottom topography surrounded by a stirring region of enhanced eddy activity. This configuration leads to the formation of a robust but highly variable vortex above the topography anomaly. The vortex dynamics integrates the white noise forcing of oceanic eddies into a red noise signal for the large scale volume transport of the vortex. The fluctuations of the transport of the Zapiola anticyclone (100 Sv) in the Argentine basin are argued to be an example of such eddy-driven stochastic variability, on the basis of a 310 years long simulation of a comprehensive ocean model run driven by a repeated-year forcing.

  9. Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fyke

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Annually averaged precipitation in the form of snow, the dominant term of the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance, displays large spatial and temporal variability. Here we present an analysis of spatial patterns of regional Antarctic precipitation variability and their impact on integrated Antarctic surface mass balance variability simulated as part of a preindustrial 1800-year global, fully coupled Community Earth System Model simulation. Correlation and composite analyses based on this output allow for a robust exploration of Antarctic precipitation variability. We identify statistically significant relationships between precipitation patterns across Antarctica that are corroborated by climate reanalyses, regional modeling and ice core records. These patterns are driven by variability in large-scale atmospheric moisture transport, which itself is characterized by decadal- to centennial-scale oscillations around the long-term mean. We suggest that this heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation variability has a dampening effect on overall Antarctic surface mass balance variability, with implications for regulation of Antarctic-sourced sea level variability, detection of an emergent anthropogenic signal in Antarctic mass trends and identification of Antarctic mass loss accelerations.

  10. Climate-Informed Multi-Scale Stochastic (CIMSS) Hydrological Modeling: Incorporating Decadal-Scale Variability Using Paleo Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyer, M. A.; Henley, B. J.; Kuczera, G. A.

    2014-12-01

    Incorporating the influence of climate change and long-term climate variability in the estimation of drought risk is a priority for water resource planners. Australia's highly variable rainfall regime is influenced by ocean-atmosphere climate mechanisms which induce decadal-scale variability in hydrological data. This talk will summarize research on the identification of appropriate models for incorporating decadal scale variability into stochastic hydrological models. These will include autoregressive, hidden Markov models and a Bayesian hierarchical approach which combines paleo information on climate indices and hydrological data into a climate informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. To characterize long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate and instrumental data describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. Model selection techniques were used to determine a suitable stochastic model to simulate these run lengths. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. Application to two high quality rainfall sites close to water supply reservoirs found that mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry state was 15%-28% lower than the wet state. Furthermore, analysis of the impact of the CIMSS framework on drought risk analysis found that short-term drought risks conditional on IPO/PDO state were far higher than the traditional AR(1) model.

  11. Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.; Verardo, S.; Quinn, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.

  12. Cooperative Hierarchical PSO With Two Stage Variable Interaction Reconstruction for Large Scale Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Hongwei; Sun, Liang; Tan, Guozhen; Chen, Zheng; Chen, C L Philip

    2017-09-01

    Large scale optimization problems arise in diverse fields. Decomposing the large scale problem into small scale subproblems regarding the variable interactions and optimizing them cooperatively are critical steps in an optimization algorithm. To explore the variable interactions and perform the problem decomposition tasks, we develop a two stage variable interaction reconstruction algorithm. A learning model is proposed to explore part of the variable interactions as prior knowledge. A marginalized denoising model is proposed to construct the overall variable interactions using the prior knowledge, with which the problem is decomposed into small scale modules. To optimize the subproblems and relieve premature convergence, we propose a cooperative hierarchical particle swarm optimization framework, where the operators of contingency leadership, interactional cognition, and self-directed exploitation are designed. Finally, we conduct theoretical analysis for further understanding of the proposed algorithm. The analysis shows that the proposed algorithm can guarantee converging to the global optimal solutions if the problems are correctly decomposed. Experiments are conducted on the CEC2008 and CEC2010 benchmarks. The results demonstrate the effectiveness, convergence, and usefulness of the proposed algorithm.

  13. Encoding the Scaling of the Cosmological Variables with the Euler Beta Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Per, M. A.; Seguí, A. J.

    We study the scaling exponents for the expanding isotropic flat cosmological models. The dimension of space, the equation of state of the cosmic fluid and the scaling exponent for a physical variable are related by the Euler Beta function that controls the singular behavior of the global integrals. We encounter dual cosmological scenarios using the properties of the Beta function. When we study the integral of the density of entropy we reproduce the Fischler-Susskind holographic bound.

  14. The scales of variability of stream fish assemblage at tributary confluences

    OpenAIRE

    István Czeglédi; Alex Sándor Nagy

    2015-01-01

    Tributary confluences play an important role in the dispersal of organisms, and consequently, in shaping regional scale diversity in stream networks. Despite their importance in dispersal processes, little is known about how ecological assemblages are organized in these habitats. We studied the scales of variability of stream fish assemblages over three seasons using a hierarchical sampling design, which incorporated three tributaries, three sites at the mouth of each tributary and using four...

  15. Investigation of Hillslope-Scale Soil Moisture Spatial and Temporal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, E.; Kögler, S.; Wollschlaeger, U.; Zacharias, S.; Werban, U.; Dietrich, P.

    2013-12-01

    Soil moisture is a key state variable that controls hydrological and energy fluxes at various spatial and temporal scales. Understanding and characterizing this variability is one of the major challenges within hydrological sciences. Understanding soil moisture dynamics at the hillslope scale is important to link point- and catchment-scale studies, and for up- and down-scaling of hydrological processes. Nevertheless, deriving generalizable process understanding is not trivial, because of the non-linearity of hillslope response to rainfall. The overall aim of this work was to describe the soil moisture variability at different spatial and temporal scales within a hillslope area with varying topography and soil type but homogeneous land use. Recent developments of wireless sensor technology allow for the long-term monitoring of soil water content with high spatial and temporal resolution, hence facilitate a better understanding of soil moisture spatial variability and the related hydrological processes. Geophysical techniques such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) methods have been widely used during the last decades to map soil properties at the field scale, because of their suitability for fast and precise mapping of soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) over large areas. In the Harz Mountains (Central Germany), a 2.5 ha hillslope area was permanently instrumented with a wireless soil moisture and soil temperature monitoring network (SoilNet). It comprises 40 measurement nodes, and 30 of them were located according to a geostatitstical sampling strategy based on ancillary information. At each of the network nodes, 6 sensors measure hourly the soil water content and soil temperature at three depths within the vadose zone. Time-lapse EMI measurements were carried out to map spatial patterns of ECa over several depths. The one-year high-resolution SoilNet time-series is described, and the soil moisture spatial variability is discussed.

  16. Organisationally relevant variables and Keyes's Mental Health Continuum Scale: An exploratory study

    OpenAIRE

    Deo J.W. Strümpfer; Anneli Hardy; Joan S. de Villiers; Susan Rigby

    2009-01-01

    In an exploratory study on a sample of convenience (n = 165), 11 self-report variables with presumed organisational  relevance were  related,  as  predictors,  to  the  three  subscores  and  summed  score of  the Keyes  (2005a, 2005b; 2007) Mental Health Continuum  scale  (long  form). Keyes's  scale was administered five to seven days after the first set of scales. The predictor scores were reduced to three factorial scores, labelled positive orientation, negative orientation and positive s...

  17. Oceanic variability around Madagascar : connections to the large-scale Indian Ocean circulation and its forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palastanga, V.

    2007-01-01

    The connection between the mesoscale eddy activity around Madagascar and the large-scale interannual variability in the Indian Ocean is investigated. We use the combined TOPEX/Poseidon-ERS sea surface height (SSH) data for the period 1993-2003. The SSH-fields in the Mozambique Channel and east of

  18. The scales of variability of stream fish assemblage at tributary confluences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    István Czeglédi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Tributary confluences play an important role in the dispersal of organisms, and consequently, in shaping regional scale diversity in stream networks. Despite their importance in dispersal processes, little is known about how ecological assemblages are organized in these habitats. We studied the scales of variability of stream fish assemblages over three seasons using a hierarchical sampling design, which incorporated three tributaries, three sites at the mouth of each tributary and using four sampling units at each site. We found strong scale dependent variability in species richness, composition and relative abundance. Most of the variation was accounted for by the interactive effect of season, between stream and between site effects, while habitat structure of the sampling units had a relatively minor role. Species richness showed a continuous decrease from the mainstem river in most cases, while species composition and relative abundance changed less consistently along the longitudinal profile. Consequently, we found that not only the junctions presented a strong filter on the species pool, but some species were filtered out if they passed this critical habitat bottleneck. Spatial position of the tributaries along the river also contributed to assemblage variability in the confluences. Overall, our results suggest high variability in fish assemblages across multiple scales at tributary confluences. Environmental management should take a more critical care on the filtering role of tributary confluences in species dispersal, for better understanding patterns and processes in the branches of dendritic stream networks.

  19. Multi-scale variability and long-range memory in indoor Radon concentrations from Coimbra, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Reik V.; Potirakis, Stelios; Barbosa, Susana

    2014-05-01

    The presence or absence of long-range correlations in the variations of indoor Radon concentrations has recently attracted considerable interest. As a radioactive gas naturally emitted from the ground in certain geological settings, understanding environmental factors controlling Radon concentrations and their dynamics is important for estimating its effect on human health and the efficiency of possible measures for reducing the corresponding exposition. In this work, we re-analyze two high-resolution records of indoor Radon concentrations from Coimbra, Portugal, each of which spans several months of continuous measurements. In order to evaluate the presence of long-range correlations and fractal scaling, we utilize a multiplicity of complementary methods, including power spectral analysis, ARFIMA modeling, classical and multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis, and two different estimators of the signals' fractal dimensions. Power spectra and fluctuation functions reveal some complex behavior with qualitatively different properties on different time-scales: white noise in the high-frequency part, indications of some long-range correlated process dominating time scales of several hours to days, and pronounced low-frequency variability associated with tidal and/or meteorological forcing. In order to further decompose these different scales of variability, we apply two different approaches. On the one hand, applying multi-resolution analysis based on the discrete wavelet transform allows separately studying contributions on different time scales and characterize their specific correlation and scaling properties. On the other hand, singular system analysis (SSA) provides a reconstruction of the essential modes of variability. Specifically, by considering only the first leading SSA modes, we achieve an efficient de-noising of our environmental signals, highlighting the low-frequency variations together with some distinct scaling on sub-daily time-scales resembling

  20. Spatial and temporal scales of satellite sea surface salinity variability in the Tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzortzi, E.

    2016-02-01

    Taking advantage of the different coverage of satellite-derived sea surface salinity (SSS), concurrent SMOS and Aquarius observations are used for the first time for the quantification of the spatial and temporal decorrelation scales of SSS in the Tropical Atlantic. Different 7-10 days composite SSS products from the two missions are used to examine any potential effects of varying resolution, bias corrections and averaging characteristics. Given the dominance of the seasonal cycle in SSS variability in the region, the scales are calculated both for the mean and anomaly SSS fields. With the seasonal cycle retained, homogeneous SSS variations are strongly anisotropic, with the longest zonal scales in the Tropics reaching over 2000 km and long temporal scales of up to 70-80 days, as seen by both SMOS and Aquarius. The longest meridional scales of over 1000 km occur in the South Atlantic ( 10°-25°S), most discernible in Aquarius data. SSS variability has the longest persistence in time of up to 150-200 days at the Southern Sargasso Sea in the N.W. Atlantic. The removal of the seasonal cycle decreases noticeably the spatio-temporal scales over most of the basin. Overall, with the exception of differences in the S. Atlantic, there is good consistency between the spatio-temporal scales of SSS from the two satellites and different products, despite their individual calibration and resolution characteristics. The new estimates of decorrelation scales of SSS improve our knowledge of the processes and mechanisms controlling the Tropical Atlantic SSS variability, and represent a powerful new investigative tool equally applicable to other regions, SSS products and other ocean geophysical properties. This work has also important applications for the evaluation of the impact of satellite SSS in assimilation systems, the development of optimally interpolated products, as well as the definition of appropriate validation procedures of the various satellite SSS products.

  1. Protection changes the relevancy of scales of variability in coralligenous assemblages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazzi, L.; La Manna, G.; Cecchi, E.; Serena, F.; Ceccherelli, G.

    2016-06-01

    The knowledge of natural spatial patterns of variability is crucial to discriminate between natural changes and human-induced effects and to plan monitoring programs and impact evaluation studies. The present study aimed at estimating the spatial variability of coralligenous habitat, one of the main important habitats of the Mediterranean Sea, at several spatial scales. Specifically, the following hypotheses were tested: i) the structure of coralligenous assemblage and ii) the abundance of main taxa/groups both changed among different spatial scales differently depending on protection. A hierarchical sampling design was used to study 14 localities (7 Marine Protected Areas and 7 unprotected) at multiple spatial scales through photographic recording. The study suggested that, in protected conditions, the structure of coralligenous assemblages mostly varied at small spatial scale (m apart), while the structure is similar across different localities, sites and areas, even if the abundance of the main taxa/morphological groups changed. In unprotected conditions, variability among localities was higher than among Marine Protected Areas, while an opposite trend was observed at the smaller spatial scales.

  2. Organisationally relevant variables and Keyes's Mental Health Continuum Scale: An exploratory study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deo J.W. Strümpfer

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available In an exploratory study on a sample of convenience (n = 165, 11 self-report variables with presumed organisational  relevance were  related,  as  predictors,  to  the  three  subscores  and  summed  score of  the Keyes  (2005a, 2005b; 2007 Mental Health Continuum  scale  (long  form. Keyes's  scale was administered five to seven days after the first set of scales. The predictor scores were reduced to three factorial scores, labelled positive orientation, negative orientation and positive striving. When classified thus, the predictor variables showed significant and meaningful relationships with some or all of the Keyes subscores and the total score, although few reached medium effect sizes.

  3. Testing the Effectiveness of Environmental Variables to Explain European Terrestrial Vertebrate Species Richness across Biogeographical Scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maud Mouchet

    Full Text Available We compared the effectiveness of environmental variables, and in particular of land-use indicators, to explain species richness patterns across taxonomic groups and biogeographical scales (i.e. overall pan-Europe and ecoregions within pan-Europe. Using boosted regression trees that handle non-linear relationships, we compared the relative influence (as a measure of effectiveness of environmental variables related to climate, landscape (or habitat heterogeneity, land-use intensity or energy availability to explain European vertebrate species richness (birds, amphibians, and mammals at the continental and ecoregion scales. We found that dominant land cover and actual evapotranspiration that relate to energy availability were the main correlates of vertebrate species richness over Europe. At the ecoregion scale, we identified four distinct groups of ecoregions where species richness was essentially associated to (i seasonality of temperature, (ii actual evapotranspiration and/or mean annual temperature, (iii seasonality of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and land cover and (iv and an even combination of the environmental variables. This typology of ecoregions remained valid for total vertebrate richness and the three vertebrate groups taken separately. Despite the overwhelming influence of land cover and actual evapotranspiration to explain vertebrate species richness patterns at European scale, the ranking of the main correlates of species richness varied between regions. Interestingly, landscape and land-use indicators did not stand out at the continental scale but their influence greatly increased in southern ecoregions, revealing the long-lasting human footprint on land-use-land-cover changes. Our study provides one of the first multi-scale descriptions of the variability in the ranking of correlates across several taxa.

  4. Comparing rainfall variability, model complexity and hydrological response at the intra-event scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristiano, Elena; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Ochoa-Rodriguez, Susana; van de Giesen, Nick

    2017-04-01

    The high variability in space and time of rainfall is one of the main aspects that influence hydrological response and generation of pluvial flooding. This phenomenon has a bigger impact in urban areas, where response is usually faster and flow peaks are typically higher, due to the high degree of imperviousness. Previous researchers have investigated sensitivity of urban hydrodynamic models to rainfall space-time resolution as well as interactions with model structure and resolution. They showed that finding a proper match between rainfall resolution and model complexity is important and that sensitivity increases for smaller urban catchment scales. Results also showed high variability in hydrological response sensitivity, the origins of which remain poorly understood. In this work, we investigate the interaction between rainfall input variability and model structure and scale at high resolution, i.e. 1-15 minutes in time and 100m to 3 km in space. Apart from studying summary statistics such as relative peak flow errors and coefficient of determination, we look into characteristics of response hydrographs to find explanations for response variability in relation to catchment properties as well storm event characteristics (e.g. storm scale and movement, single-peak versus multi-peak events). The aim is to identify general relations between storm temporal and spatial scale and catchment scale in explaining variability of hydrological response. Analyses are conducted for the Cranbrook catchment (London, UK), using 3 hydrodynamic models set up in InfoWorks ICM: a low resolution semi-distributed (SD1) model, a high resolution semi-distributed (SD2) model and a fully distributed (FD) model. These models represent the spatial variability of the land in different ways: semi-distributed models divide the surface in subcatchments, each of them modelled in a lumped way (51 subcatchment for the S model and 4409 subcatchments for the SD model), while the fully distributed

  5. Impact of Porous Media and NAPL Spatial Variability at the Pore Scale on Interphase Mass Transfer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copty, N. K.; Agaoglu, B.; Scheytt, T.

    2015-12-01

    Sherwood number expressions are often used to model NAPL dissolution in porous media. Such expressions are generally derived from meso-scale experiments and expressed in terms of fluid and porous medium properties averaged over some representative volume. In this work a pore network model is used to examine the influence of porous media and NAPL pore scale variability on interphase mass transfer. The focus was on assessing the impact of (i) NAPL saturation, (ii) interfacial area (iii) NAPL spatial distribution at the pore scale, (iv) grain size heterogeneity and (v) REV or domain size on the apparent interphase mass transfer. Variability of both the mass transfer coefficient that explicitly accounts for the interfacial area and the mass transfer coefficient that lumps the interfacial area was examined. It was shown that pore scale NAPL distribution and its orientation relative to the flow direction have significant impact on flow bypassing and the interphase mass transfer coefficient. This results in a complex non-linear relationship between interfacial area and the REV-based interphase mass transfer rate. In other words, explicitly accounting for the interfacial area does not eliminate the variability of the mass transfer coefficient. Moreover, grain size heterogeneity can also lead to a decrease in the interphase mass transfer. It was also shown that, even for explicitly defined flow patterns, changing the domain size over which the mass transfer process is average influences the extent of NAPL bypassing and dilution and, consequently, the interphase mass transfer.

  6. Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

    2016-03-15

    Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Climate co-variability between South America and Southern Africa at interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puaud, Yohan; Pohl, Benjamin; Fauchereau, Nicolas; Macron, Clémence; Beltrando, Gérard

    2017-06-01

    This paper investigates and quantifies co-variability between large-scale convection in the South American and Southern African sectors at different timescales (interannual, intraseasonal and synoptic), during the austral summer seasons (November-February) from 1979 to 2012. Multivariate analyses (Canonical Correlation Analysis and Principal Component Analysis) are applied to daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, used as a proxy for atmospheric convection) anomalies to extract the principal modes of variability and co-variability in each and between both regions, filtered to consider the appropriate time-scales. At the interannual timescale, results confirm the predominant role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), favoring enhanced convection over both southeastern Brazil and northern Argentina on the one hand, and tropical Africa and the western Indian Ocean on the other hand. At the intraseasonal timescale, the leading mode of co-variability is related to modulations of large-scale atmospheric convection over most of South America, and 10 days later, tropical Southern Africa. This mode accounts for the impacts of the Madden-Julian-oscillation (MJO) over these regions: identifying robust co-variability at the intraseasonal timescale between both regions require thus to consider a temporal shift between the two sectors. At the synoptic scale, however, co-variability consists mostly of a synchronous modulation of the large-scale atmospheric convection over the South American and Southern African sectors. This results from the development of concomitant Rossby waves forming a continuous wave train over the South Atlantic in the mid-latitudes, affecting both the South Atlantic and South Indian Convergence Zones. Among the days when convection shows significant anomalies (30 % of the total days in each sector), this synchronous mode occurs about 25 % of the time, individual Rossby waves modulating convection over one single region only during the remaining 75

  8. Atmospheric methane variability: Centennial-scale signals in the Last Glacial Period

    OpenAIRE

    Rhodes, Rachael,; Brook, EJ; McConnell, JR; T. Blunier; Sime, LC; Faïn, X.; R. Mulvaney

    2017-01-01

    In order to understand atmospheric methane (CH$_{4}$) biogeochemistry now and in the future, we must apprehend its natural variability, without anthropogenic influence. Samples of ancient air trapped within ice cores provide the means to do this. Here we analyze the ultrahigh-resolution CH$_{4}$ record of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core 67.2–9.8 ka and find novel, atmospheric CH$_{4}$ variability at centennial time scales throughout the record. This signal is characterized by rec...

  9. APPROXIMATION TO OPTIMAL STOPPING RULES FOR GUMBEL RANDOM VARIABLES WITH UNKNOWN LOCATION AND SCALE PARAMETERS

    OpenAIRE

    Yeh, Tzu-Sheng; Lee, Shen-Ming

    2006-01-01

    An optimal stopping rule is a rule that stops the sampling process at a sample size n that maximizes the expected reward. In this paper we will study the approximation to optimal stopping rule for Gumbel random variables, because the Gumbel-type distribution is the most commonly referred to in discussions of extreme values. Let $X_1, X_2,\\cdots X_n,\\cdots$ be independent, identically distributed Gumbel random variables with unknown location and scale parameters,$\\alpha$ and $\\beta$. If we def...

  10. Temporal Variation and Scaling of Hydrological Variables in a Typical Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, C.; Zhang, Y. K.; Liang, X.; Liu, J.

    2016-12-01

    Temporal variations of the main hydrological variables over 16 years were systematically investigated based on the results from an integrated hydrological modeling at the Sagehen Creek Watershed in northern Sierra Nevada. Temporal scaling of these variables and damping effects of the hydrological system as well as its subsystems, i.e., the land surface, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, were analyzed with spectral analyses. It was found that the hydrological system may act as a cascade of hierarchical fractal filters which sequentially transfer a non-fractal or less correlated fractal hydrological signal to a more correlated fractal signal. Temporal scaling of infiltration (I), actual evapotraspiration (ET), recharge (R), baseflow (BF), streamflow (SF) exist and the temporal autocorrelation of these variables increase as water moves through the system. The degree of the damping effect of the subsystems is different and is strongest in the unsaturated zone compared with that of the land surface and saturated zone. The temporal scaling of the groundwater levels (h) also exists and is strongly affected by the river: the temporal autocorrelation of h near the river is similar to that of the river stage fluctuations and increases away from the river. There is a break in the temporal scaling of h near the river at low frequencies due to the effect of the river. Temporal variations of the soil moisture (θ) is more complicated: the value of the scaling exponent (β) for θ increases with depth as water moves downwards and its high-frequency fluctuations are damped by the unsaturated zone. The temporal fluctuations of precipitation (P) and I are fractional Gauss noise (fGn), those of ET, R, BF, and SF are fractional Brownian motion (fBm), and those of h away from the river are 2nd-order fBm based on the values of β obtained in this study. Keywords: Temporal variations, Scaling, Damping effect, Hydrological system.

  11. Cooperative Co-evolution with Formula-based Variable Grouping for Large-Scale Global Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuping; Liu, Haiyan; Wei, Fei; Zong, Tingting; Li, Xiaodong

    2017-08-09

    For a large-scale global optimization (LSGO) problem, divide-and-conquer is usually considered as an effective strategy to decompose the problem into smaller subproblems, each of which can be then solved individually. Among these decomposition methods, variable grouping is shown to be promising in recent years. Existing variable grouping methods usually assume the problem to be black-box (i.e., assuming that an analytical model of the objective function is unknown), and they attempt to learn appropriate variable grouping that would allow for a better decomposition of the problem. In such cases, these variable grouping methods do not make a direct use of the formula of the objective function. However, it can be argued that many real world problems are white-box problems, i.e., the formulas of objective functions are often known a priori. These formulas of the objective functions provide rich information which can be then used to design an effective variable group method. In this paper, a formulabased grouping strategy (FBG) for white-box problems is first proposed. It groups variables directly via the formula of an objective function which usually consists of a finite number of operations (i.e., four arithmetic operations " + ", " - ", " × ", " ÷ " and composite operations of basic elementary functions). In FBG, the operations are classified into two classes: one resulting in non-separable variables, and the other resulting in separable variables. In FBG, variables can be automatically grouped into a suitable number of non-interacting subcomponents, with variables in each subcomponent being inter-dependent. FBG can be applied to any white-box problem easily and can be integrated into a cooperative co-evolution framework. Based on FBG, a novel cooperative co-evolution algorithm with formula-based variable grouping (so-called CCF) is proposed in this paper for decomposing a large-scale white-box problem into several smaller sub-problems and optimizing them

  12. Almost periodic solutions of impulsive BAM neural networks with variable delays on time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao

    2014-08-01

    This paper is concerned with a class of impulsive BAM neural networks with variable delays on time scales. Some sufficient conditions are established to ensure the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solutions for such class of impulsive BAM neural networks. The results are essentially new when T=R or T=Z. It is the first time that the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solutions for impulsive BAM neural networks are obtained on time scales. Furthermore, an example and numerical simulations are given to illustrate our effectiveness of the obtained results.

  13. Small Scale Spatial Variability of Soil Properties and Nutrients in a Ferralsol under Corn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, M. C.; Vidal Vázquez, E.; Pereira de Almeida, V.; Paz-Ferreiro, J.

    2012-04-01

    Spatial variability of soil attributes, both in natural and agricultural landscapes can be rather large. This heterogeneity results from interactions between pedogenetic processes and soil formation factors. In cultivated soils much variability can also occur as a result of land use and management effect, i.e. agricultural systems and practices. Therefore, the main objectives of this work were to investigate the statistical and geostatistical variability of selected properties in a soil cultivated with corn. The experimental work was carried out in Ilha Solteira, São Paulostate, Brazil and the soil was classified as an Oxisol (SSA), i.e. "Latossolo Vermelho" according to the Brazilian Soil Classification System. Eighty-four soil samples were collected at each of two different depths (0-10 and 10-20 cm) from the one-hectare plot studied. Sampling included a combination of grid and nesting schemes in order to allow description of the spatial variability at different scales. Soil texture fractions (sand, silt clay), organic matter content and pH (CaCl2) were determined using standard methods. Moreover, exchangeable bases (Ca, Mg, K), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and P were determined after exchange resin extraction. In the two depths studied, extractable P, K and Mg contents were found to be highly variable (C.V. > 30%), organic matter content and CEC showed a medium variability (C.V. ≈ 15-30%) and base percent saturation and pH exhibited a low variation (map the spatial variability of the study properties. Semivariograms provided a description of the pattern of spatial variability and some insight into possible process affecting the spatial distribution of the assessed soil properties. Sensitivity of nutrient spatial requirements to between field variability was discussed on the basis of the results obtained. In addition, the usefulness of kriging maps to improve and optimize productivity of this soil under intensive agricultural land use was considered.

  14. Groundwater Variability Across Temporal and Spatial Scales in the Central and Northeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bailing; Rodell, Matthew; Famiglietti, James S.

    2015-01-01

    Depth-to-water measurements from 181 monitoring wells in unconfined or semi-confined aquifers in nine regions of the central and northeastern U.S. were analyzed. Groundwater storage exhibited strong seasonal variations in all regions, with peaks in spring and lows in autumn, and its interannual variability was nearly unbounded, such that the impacts of droughts, floods, and excessive pumping could persist for many years. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies (deviations from the long term mean) increases as a power function of extent scale (square root of area). That relationship, which is linear on a log-log graph, is common to other hydrological variables but had never before been shown with groundwater data. We describe how the derived power function can be used to determine the number of wells needed to estimate regional mean groundwater storage anomalies with a desired level of accuracy, or to assess uncertainty in regional mean estimates from a set number of observations. We found that the spatial variability of groundwater storage anomalies within a region often increases with the absolute value of the regional mean anomaly, the opposite of the relationship between soil moisture spatial variability and mean. Recharge (drainage from the lowest model soil layer) simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was compatible with observed monthly groundwater storage anomalies and month-to-month changes in groundwater storage.

  15. Bipolar ice core records of millennial scale climate variability : an overview of recent findings (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.

    2013-12-01

    Greenland and Antarctic ice cores offer high resolution records of the imprints of millennial scale climate variability on polar climate, aerosol deposition, and atmospheric composition (Wolff et al, QSR, 2010). Improved chronologies and spatial coverage provide new data against which the mechanisms involved in millennial variability and simulated by climate models can be tested. We will first discuss the bipolar sequence of events based on the new AICC2012 chronology, during the last climatic cycle (Veres et al, Clim. Past, 2013; Bazin et al, Clim. Past, 2013). The matrix of ice cores allows to investigate regional differences in the cross-Greenland fingerprints of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (Guillevic et al, Clim. Past, 2013) and the circum-Antarctic signature of their Antarctic Isotopic Maxima counterpart (Buiron et al, QSR, 2012). While Heinrich events have long remained difficult to identify in ice core records, a step change in atmospheric CO2 concentrations has been identified during Heinrich 4 (Ahn et al, GRL, 2012), challenging the gradual CO2 emissions expected from the classical bipolar see-saw explanation. High resolution Antarctic data also reveal centennial to millennial variability during interglacial periods and glacial inceptions which bears similarities with glacial Antarctic Isotopic Maxima, questioning the source and amplifiers of glacial millennial variability. New investigations of the magnitude and recurrence of millennial variability based on multiple long Antarctic ice core records are expected to provide further hints on the interplay between mean climatic states and this millennial variability.

  16. Variability of snow depth at the plot scale: implications for mean depth estimation and sampling strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. I. López-Moreno

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Snow depth variability over small distances can affect the representativeness of depth samples taken at the local scale, which are often used to assess the spatial distribution of snow at regional and basin scales. To assess spatial variability at the plot scale, intensive snow depth sampling was conducted during January and April 2009 in 15 plots in the Rio Ésera Valley, central Spanish Pyrenees Mountains. Each plot (10 × 10 m; 100 m2 was subdivided into a grid of 1 m2 squares; sampling at the corners of each square yielded a set of 121 data points that provided an accurate measure of snow depth in the plot (considered as ground truth. The spatial variability of snow depth was then assessed using sampling locations randomly selected within each plot. The plots were highly variable, with coefficients of variation up to 0.25. This indicates that to improve the representativeness of snow depth sampling in a given plot the snow depth measurements should be increased in number and averaged when spatial heterogeneity is substantial.

    Snow depth distributions were simulated at the same plot scale under varying levels of standard deviation and spatial autocorrelation, to enable the effect of each factor on snowpack representativeness to be established. The results showed that the snow depth estimation error increased markedly as the standard deviation increased. The results indicated that in general at least five snow depth measurements should be taken in each plot to ensure that the estimation error is <10 %; this applied even under highly heterogeneous conditions. In terms of the spatial configuration of the measurements, the sampling strategy did not impact on the snow depth estimate under lack of spatial autocorrelation. However, with a high spatial autocorrelation a smaller error was obtained when the distance between measurements was greater.

  17. Atmospheric methane variability: Centennial-scale signals in the Last Glacial Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Rachael H.; Brook, Edward J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Blunier, Thomas; Sime, Louise C.; Faïn, Xavier; Mulvaney, Robert

    2017-03-01

    In order to understand atmospheric methane (CH4) biogeochemistry now and in the future, we must apprehend its natural variability, without anthropogenic influence. Samples of ancient air trapped within ice cores provide the means to do this. Here we analyze the ultrahigh-resolution CH4 record of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core 67.2-9.8 ka and find novel, atmospheric CH4 variability at centennial time scales throughout the record. This signal is characterized by recurrence intervals within a broad 80-500 year range, but we find that age-scale uncertainties complicate the possible isolation of any periodic frequency. Lower signal amplitudes in the Last Glacial relative to the Holocene may be related to incongruent effects of firn-based signal smoothing processes. Within interstadial and stadial periods, the peak-to-peak signal amplitudes vary in proportion to the underlying millennial-scale oscillations in CH4 concentration—the relative amplitude change is constant. We propose that the centennial CH4 signal is related to tropical climate variability that influences predominantly low-latitude wetland CH4 emissions.

  18. Impacts of Climate Variability on Latin American Small-scale Fisheries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Defeo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale fisheries (SSFs are social-ecological systems that play a critical role in terms of food security and poverty alleviation in Latin America. These fisheries are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic and climatic drivers acting at multiple scales. We review the effects of climate variability on Latin American SSFs, and discuss the combined effects of two additional human drivers: globalization of markets and governance. We show drastic long-term and large-scale effects of climate variability, e.g., sea surface temperature anomalies, wind intensity, sea level, and climatic indices, on SSFs. These variables, acting in concert with economic drivers, have exacerbated stock depletion rates in Latin American SSFs. The impact of these drivers varied according to the life cycle and latitudinal distribution of the target species, the characteristics of the oceanographic systems, and the inherent features of the social systems. Our review highlights the urgent need to improve management and governance systems to promote resilience as a way to cope with the increasing uncertainty about the impacts of climate and globalization of markets on Latin American SSFs.

  19. On the decadal variability of atmospheric large-scale modes: teleconnections with observational data from Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitoiu, Daniela; Dobrica, Venera; Demetrescu, Crisan

    2010-05-01

    The long-term evolution of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (P) in Romania is compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) known as major patterns of atmospheric circulation variability with great impact on temperature and precipitation over Europe. Spectral analysis of SAT, P, NAO and AMO indices shows variations of short period (2-7 years), decadal variations with a period of ~11 years (Schwabe cycle) and variations with longer periods 22 and/or 30 years (Hale cycle) and even longer. The decadal and the interdecadal variability are compared to solar/geomagnetic forcing at the corresponding timescales (Schwabe and Hale cycle). Possible teleconnections with other large-scale climate variability modes are discussed.

  20. Estimation of the Scale of Fluctuation for Spatial Variables of RC Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilyati S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Dimensional and structural properties of RC structures are nonhomogenous due to the quality of workmanship, environmental and material variability. One of the required statistical information for spatial variability analysis of RC structures includes the scale of fluctuation, θ. This paper discusses the estimation of θ for two spatial variables; concrete compressive strength and concrete cover. Methods used to estimate the θ are the Curve fitting method and the Kriging Method. Kriging is an optimal interpolation method which uses the concept of randomness that allows the uncertainty of the predicted values to be calculated. Data measurements for concrete compressive strength and concrete cover were obtained from Peterson (1964 and Public Work Department of Malaysia respectively. The most reliable value for θ of fcu was determined and the value obtained for θ of c was found unreliable due to the insufficient of data points from the available data.

  1. Assessing scales of spatial & temporal variability in radiocarbon contents of soil organic carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Voort, Tessa Sophia; Feng, Xiaojuan; Hagedorn, Frank; Eglinton, Timothy

    2014-05-01

    Soil organic matter (SOM) forms the largest terrestrial reservoir of carbon outside of sedimentary rocks and it provides the fundamental reservoir for nutrients that sustains vegetation and the microbial communities. With ongoing changes in land-use and climate, SOM is also subject to change, with potentially major consequences for soil as a resource and for global biogeochemical cycles. Radiocarbon is a powerful tool for assessing SOM dynamics and is increasingly used in studies of carbon turnover. However, due to the nature of the measurement, comprehensive 14C studies of soils systems are rare. In particular, information on spatial variability in the radiocarbon contents of soils is limited. The present study aims to develop and apply a comprehensive four-dimensional approach to explore heterogeneity in bulk SOM 14C, with a broader goal of assessing controls on organic matter stability and vulnerability in soils across Switzerland. Focusing on range of Swiss soil types, we examine lateral variability in 14C over plot (decimeter to meter) to regional scales, vertical variability from surface to deeper soil horizons, and temporal variability by comparing present-day with archived (legacy) samples. Preliminary results show that there are large differences in SOM 14C age across small lateral and vertical distances within soil systems. Ultimately, studies of bulk variability will be followed up with analyses of SOM sub-fractions, including 14C measurements at the molecular level. Investigating 14C variability over various space and time domains may shed light on the scales of processes that dictate the composition and vulnerability of SOM, and provide valuable constraints on models of SOM turnover.

  2. Assessment of dispositional and contextual variables in educational settings: IEPA and AYES scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecchini Estrada, José A; González-Pienda, Julio A; Méndez-Giménez, Antonio; Fernández-Río, Javier; Fernández-Losa, Jorge L; González González-Mesa, Carmen

    2014-01-01

    Despite the fact that there are a few instruments designed to measure dispositional and contextual variables in educational contexts, the goal of this study is to elaborate and validate two questionnaires to measure learning interest, effort and progression as dispositional (IEPA) and contextual (AYEs) variables in secondary education students. An initial version of both scales was developed. They were reviewed by a panel of experts and tested on two pilot studies. The final versions were administered to the described sample and their psychometric properties were tested. Factor analyses (exploratory and confirmatory) were conducted on three sets of data: Mathematics (n = 290), Spanish Language and Literature (n = 283), and Physical Education (n = 289). Both final scales had three dimensions with four items in each dimension. All standardized loads and critical values of t were overwhelmingly positive, while alpha coefficients ranged from .85 to .91. Both scales showed adequate construct validity, convergent validity, discriminant validity and concurrent validity. Results showed that these new scales have adequate psychometric properties, allowing a valid and reliable assessment.

  3. Variability of the Magnetic Field Power Spectrum in the Solar Wind at Electron Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Owen Wyn; Alexandrova, O.; Kajdič, P.; Turc, L.; Perrone, D.; Escoubet, C. P.; Walsh, A.

    2017-12-01

    At electron scales, the power spectrum of solar-wind magnetic fluctuations can be highly variable and the dissipation mechanisms of the magnetic energy into the various particle species is under debate. In this paper, we investigate data from the Cluster mission’s STAFF Search Coil magnetometer when the level of turbulence is sufficiently high that the morphology of the power spectrum at electron scales can be investigated. The Cluster spacecraft sample a disturbed interval of plasma where two streams of solar wind interact. Meanwhile, several discontinuities (coherent structures) are seen in the large-scale magnetic field, while at small scales several intermittent bursts of wave activity (whistler waves) are present. Several different morphologies of the power spectrum can be identified: (1) two power laws separated by a break, (2) an exponential cutoff near the Taylor shifted electron scales, and (3) strong spectral knees at the Taylor shifted electron scales. These different morphologies are investigated by using wavelet coherence, showing that, in this interval, a clear break and strong spectral knees are features that are associated with sporadic quasi parallel propagating whistler waves, even for short times. On the other hand, when no signatures of whistler waves at ∼ 0.1{--}0.2{f}{ce} are present, a clear break is difficult to find and the spectrum is often more characteristic of a power law with an exponential cutoff.

  4. Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K; Cohen, Joel E

    2016-02-29

    Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from 'outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954-2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related.

  5. Connecting European snow cover variability with large scale atmospheric patterns and changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, E.; Claps, P.; D'Odorico, P.

    2009-09-01

    This study aims to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of snow cover extent in Europe and their possible dependence with large scale atmospheric patterns affecting European weather and climate. The temporal variability and the volume of winter snowfall are important factors in the development of water management strategies for snow-dominated regions. In fact, they affect both the volumes of available water, especially during the warm season which relies on snowmelt, and the temporal stability of the streamflow regime, influenced by the timing of snow accumulation and melt. For this reason, and also with respect to the debate on the anthropogenic effects on the climate variability, the detection of snow cover natural variability and possible driving causes assumes a major importance. The EASE Grid Weekly Snow Cover and Sea Ice Extent database is used to reconstruct European snow cover fields for the period 1972-2006. In order to evaluate the snow cover temporal behavior and its spatial distribution, frequencies of occurrence are derived for different aggregation time scales while snow cover persistency, intended as a measure of the probability of having snow cover, is taken into account to separate regions permanently covered by snow during winter and regions affected by higher variability. A seasonality notion in snow cover is introduced for this purpose. In order to investigate if there exist atmospheric mechanisms leading to the extension of continental snow cover, the variables obtained from the previous step are related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Atlantic West Russia (EA/WR). These large scale atmospheric patterns, known for their effects on European Climate, are used for correlation analyses considering different temporal lag and time scale of aggregation. The aim is to identify specific regions where the influence of the different atmospheric patterns appears and possible feedbacks are

  6. Soil moisture variability across different scales in an Indian watershed for satellite soil moisture product validation

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gurjeet

    2016-05-05

    Strategic ground-based sampling of soil moisture across multiple scales is necessary to validate remotely sensed quantities such as NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) product. In the present study, in-situ soil moisture data were collected at two nested scale extents (0.5 km and 3 km) to understand the trend of soil moisture variability across these scales. This ground-based soil moisture sampling was conducted in the 500 km2 Rana watershed situated in eastern India. The study area is characterized as sub-humid, sub-tropical climate with average annual rainfall of about 1456 mm. Three 3x3 km square grids were sampled intensively once a day at 49 locations each, at a spacing of 0.5 km. These intensive sampling locations were selected on the basis of different topography, soil properties and vegetation characteristics. In addition, measurements were also made at 9 locations around each intensive sampling grid at 3 km spacing to cover a 9x9 km square grid. Intensive fine scale soil moisture sampling as well as coarser scale samplings were made using both impedance probes and gravimetric analyses in the study watershed. The ground-based soil moisture samplings were conducted during the day, concurrent with the SMAP descending overpass. Analysis of soil moisture spatial variability in terms of areal mean soil moisture and the statistics of higher-order moments, i.e., the standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation are presented. Results showed that the standard deviation and coefficient of variation of measured soil moisture decreased with extent scale by increasing mean soil moisture. © (2016) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

  7. Millennial-scale variability in the local radiocarbon reservoir age of south Florida during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Lauren T.; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Ashe, Erica; Richey, Julie N.

    2017-01-01

    A growing body of research suggests that the marine environments of south Florida provide a critical link between the tropical and high-latitude Atlantic. Changes in the characteristics of water masses off south Florida may therefore have important implications for our understanding of climatic and oceanographic variability over a broad spatial scale; however, the sources of variability within this oceanic corridor remain poorly understood. Measurements of ΔR, the local offset of the radiocarbon reservoir age, from shallow-water marine environments can serve as a powerful tracer of water-mass sources that can be used to reconstruct variability in local-to regional-scale oceanography and hydrology. We combined radiocarbon and U-series measurements of Holocene-aged corals from the shallow-water environments of the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) with robust statistical modeling to quantify the millennial-scale variability in ΔR at locations with (“nearshore”) and without (“open ocean”) substantial terrestrial influence. Our reconstructions demonstrate that there was significant spatial and temporal variability in ΔR on the FKRT during the Holocene. Whereas ΔR was similar throughout the region after ∼4000 years ago, nearshore ΔR was significantly higher than in the open ocean during the middle Holocene. We suggest that the elevated nearshore ΔR from ∼8000 to 5000 years ago was most likely the result of greater groundwater influence associated with lower sea level at this time. In the open ocean, which would have been isolated from the influence of groundwater, ΔR was lowest ∼7000 years ago, and was highest ∼3000 years ago. We evaluated our open-ocean model of ΔR variability against records of local-to regional-scale oceanography and conclude that local upwelling was not a significant driver of open-ocean radiocarbon variability in this region. Instead, the millennial-scale trends in open-ocean ΔR were more likely a result of broader-scale

  8. Evaluation of the Transport and Diffusion of Pollutants over an Urban Area Using a Local-Scale Advection-Diffusion Model and a Sub-Grid Street Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salerno, R.; Vignati, E.

    1994-01-01

    Fifth International Conference on the Development and Application of Computer Techniques to Environmental Studies, Envirosoft/94.......Fifth International Conference on the Development and Application of Computer Techniques to Environmental Studies, Envirosoft/94....

  9. Regional-Scale Variability of Macrofauna Species Assemblages and Environmental Drivers in the Canadian Beaufort Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majewski, A.; MacPhee, S.; de Montety, L.; Reist, J.; Archambault, P.

    2016-02-01

    Appropriate marine spatial planning is needed to address pressures associated with climate change, resource exploration and increased shipping in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. Information regarding the spatial variability of species assemblages and the factors that structure them are required, for example, in designing networks of marine protected areas and establishing reference conditions for assessing anthropogenic activities anticipated to have regional-scale effects. Benthic macrofauna have been widely applied as ecological indicators in many marine regions because they are relatively sessile, long-lived, and respond to environmental gradients in a predictable manner. Recently, significant progress has been made toward reporting Arctic macrofaunal biodiversity baselines across large spatial scales (i.e. pan-Arctic, Canadian Arctic) and at local-scales within the Beaufort Sea around specific geographic features (e.g., Beaufort Shelf, polynyas and areas of upwelling, lease blocks). Systematic, regional-scale surveys, however, remain a gap. Benthic ecosystem components were sampled across a broad depth range (20 - 1500m) from the transboundary region of the Yukon-Alaska border into Amundsen Gulf, and multivariate analyses of these novel survey data characterize spatial variability in macrobenthic community structure. Relationships between species assemblages and environmental drivers including depth, bottom type (e.g., granulometry), water mass characteristics (e.g., temperature, salinity) and benthic food proxies (e.g., %organic matter, benthic chlorophyll concentration) were examined. This regional-scale approach based on a systematic, transect-based survey design covers a significant portion of the Canadian Beaufort Sea and expands existing biodiversity baselines to deeper sites beyond the continental shelf break. This work has direct application to developing predictive models, habitat maps and biotic indicators for monitoring.

  10. Quantifying Spatial Variability of Selected Soil Trace Elements and Their Scaling Relationships Using Multifractal Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fasheng; Yin, Guanghua; Wang, Zhenying; McLaughlin, Neil; Geng, Xiaoyuan; Liu, Zuoxin

    2013-01-01

    Multifractal techniques were utilized to quantify the spatial variability of selected soil trace elements and their scaling relationships in a 10.24-ha agricultural field in northeast China. 1024 soil samples were collected from the field and available Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn were measured in each sample. Descriptive results showed that Mn deficiencies were widespread throughout the field while Fe and Zn deficiencies tended to occur in patches. By estimating single multifractal spectra, we found that available Fe, Cu and Zn in the study soils exhibited high spatial variability and the existence of anomalies ([α(q)max−α(q)min]≥0.54), whereas available Mn had a relatively uniform distribution ([α(q)max−α(q)min]≈0.10). The joint multifractal spectra revealed that the strong positive relationships (r≥0.86, Ptrace elements as well as their scaling relationships can be characterized by single and joint multifractal parameters. The findings presented in this study could be extended to predict selected soil trace elements at larger regional scales with the aid of geographic information systems. PMID:23874944

  11. Field Scale Studies on the Spatial Variability of Soil Quality Indicators in Washington State, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey L. Smith

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Arable lands are needed for sustainable agricultural systems to support an ever-growing human population. Soil quality needs to be defined to assure that new land brought into crop production is sustainable. To evaluate soil quality, a number of soil attributes will need to be measured, evaluated, and integrated into a soil-quality index using the multivariable indicator kriging (MVIK procedure. This study was conducted to determine the spatial variability and correlation of indicator parameters on a field scale with respect to soil quality and suitability for use with MVIK. The variability of the biological parameters decreased in the order of respiration > enzyme assays and qCO2 > microbial biomass C. The distribution frequency of all parameters except respiration were normal although the spatial distribution across the landscape was highly variable. The biological parameters showed little correlation with each other when all data points were considered; however, when grouped in smaller sections, the correlations were more consistent with observed patterns across the field. To accurately assess soil quality, and arable land use, consideration of spatial and temporal variability, soil conditions, and other controlling factors must be taken into account.

  12. On the effects of small scale space-time variability of rainfall on basin flood response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paschalis, Athanasios; Fatichi, Simone; Molnar, Peter; Rimkus, Stefan; Burlando, Paolo

    2014-06-01

    The spatio-temporal variability of rainfall, especially at fine temporal and spatial scales can significantly affect flood generation, leading to a large variability in the flood response and uncertainty in its prediction. In this study we quantify the impact of rainfall spatial and temporal structure on the catchment hydrological response based on a numerical experiment. Rainfall ensembles generated using a state-of-the-art space-time stochastic model are used as input into a distributed process-based hydrological model. The sensitivity of the hydrograph to several structural characteristics of storm rainfall for three soil moisture initial conditions is numerically assessed at the basin outlet of an Alpine catchment in central Switzerland. The results highlight that the flood response is strongly affected by the temporal correlation of rainfall and to a lesser extent by its spatial variability. Initial soil moisture conditions play a paramount role in mediating the response. We identify the underlying mechanistic explanations in terms of runoff generation and connectivity of saturated areas that determine the sensitivity of flood response to the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall. We show that the element that mostly influences both the flood peak and the time of peak occurrence is the clustering of saturated areas in the catchment which leads to local enhanced runoff.

  13. Time-scale characteristics of Kasai river hydrological regime variability for 1940-1999

    CERN Document Server

    Mbuebue, Jean-Marie Tshitenge; Mwamba, Vincent Lukanda; Phuati, Edmond Phuku; Bantu, Albert Kazadi Mukenga; Keto, Franck Tondozi

    2016-01-01

    The present study was undertaken with the aim of contributing to the characterization of the nonstationary variability of the hydrological regime of the Kasai River using the wavelet analysis for 1940-1999. The rainfalls and discharge over Kasai Basin have marked fluctuations with a perceptible downward trend and some shift around 1950, 1960, 1970, 1983 and 1994. The results show that rainfalls over Kasai basin and the discharge at Ilebo station patterns exhibit a strong annual oscillation and some intermittent oscillations in 2-8 years (1950-1975, 1983-1995) and 8-16 years (1970-1999) time scales. The wavelet coherence analysis reveals a weak possible connection between hydrological variables (rainfalls, discharge) and climate indices relative to sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation over Atlantic tropical, Indian and Pacific Oceans (coherence less than 0.55).

  14. Enabling Structured Exploration of Workflow Performance Variability in Extreme-Scale Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Stephan, Eric G.; Raju, Bibi; Altintas, Ilkay; Elsethagen, Todd O.; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram

    2015-11-15

    Workflows are taking an Workflows are taking an increasingly important role in orchestrating complex scientific processes in extreme scale and highly heterogeneous environments. However, to date we cannot reliably predict, understand, and optimize workflow performance. Sources of performance variability and in particular the interdependencies of workflow design, execution environment and system architecture are not well understood. While there is a rich portfolio of tools for performance analysis, modeling and prediction for single applications in homogenous computing environments, these are not applicable to workflows, due to the number and heterogeneity of the involved workflow and system components and their strong interdependencies. In this paper, we investigate workflow performance goals and identify factors that could have a relevant impact. Based on our analysis, we propose a new workflow performance provenance ontology, the Open Provenance Model-based WorkFlow Performance Provenance, or OPM-WFPP, that will enable the empirical study of workflow performance characteristics and variability including complex source attribution.

  15. Millennial-scale variability during the last glacial in vegetation records from North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Anderson, R. Scott; Desprat, S.; Grigg, L.D.; Grimm, E.C.; Heusser, L.E.; Jacobs, Brian F.; Lopez-Martinez, C.; Whitlock, C.L.; Willard, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    High-resolution pollen records from North America show that terrestrial environments were affected by Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) and Heinrich climate variability during the last glacial. In the western, more mountainous regions, these climate changes are generally observed in the pollen records as altitudinal movements of climate-sensitive plant species, whereas in the southeast, they are recorded as latitudinal shifts in vegetation. Heinrich (HS) and Greenland (GS) stadials are generally correlated with cold and dry climate and Greenland interstadials (GI) with warm-wet phases. The pollen records from North America confirm that vegetation responds rapidly to millennial-scale climate variability, although the difficulties in establishing independent age models for the pollen records make determination of the absolute phasing of the records to surface temperatures in Greenland somewhat uncertain. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Impact of precipitation and physical characteristics spatial variabilities on hydrological response at large catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouhier, Laura; Garavaglia, Federico; Le Lay, Matthieu; Le Moine, Nicolas; Ribstein, Pierre; Hendrickx, Frédéric

    2017-04-01

    The spatial variability of the hydrological response is controlled by the interaction of two spatial variabilities: (i) meteorological forcing and (ii) physical characteristics. This work aims at evaluating their relative impact on streamflow modeling throughout a catchment. To tackle the issue, a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model, named MORDOR-TS, is used. It is a distributed version of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model currently used at Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) for operational applications. The analysis is conducted at large catchment scale, on the French Loire catchment at Gien (35 707 km2) discretised at the maximum into 387 hydrological meshes of about 100km2. Within this one, 106 streamflow time series are available between 1980 and 2012. According to a spatial split-sample test scheme, the data is split into two similar parts: a calibration and a validation sample of 53 gauges each. For a model calibrated on the catchment outlet only, the impact of the rainfall pattern is assessed by testing several aggregations of the precipitation field, from uniform to mesh scale. Then, the spatial physical information is added in two steps. Firstly, the valuable information about interior gauges is taken into account by calibrating a uniform set of parameters on the whole calibration sample. Secondly, the parameters are spatialised to represent the physiographic and pedologic spatial variabilities. Dividing the catchment into sub-basins, there could be as many parameter sets calibrated as there are calibration sites. Regarding the validation sample, the worst performance is provided by a unique lumped model, while the best is given by a set of 53 independent distributed models calibrated on each validation station. The main progress from the worst towards the best case is obtained with the precipitation spatial variability (around 85% of the total progress). Interior gauges and parameters spatialisation bring some

  17. Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB.In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

  18. A Scaling Model for the Anthropocene Climate Variability with Projections to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

    2017-04-01

    The determination of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is a fundamental climate science problem with important policy implications. We use a scaling model, with a limited set of parameters, which can directly calculate the forced globally-average surface air temperature response to anthropogenic and natural forcings. At timescales larger than an inner scale τ, which we determine as the ocean-atmosphere coupling scale at around 2 years, the global system responds, approximately, linearly, so that the variability may be decomposed into additive forced and internal components. The Ruelle response theory extends the classical linear response theory for small perturbations to systems far from equilibrium. Our model thus relates radiative forcings to a forced temperature response by convolution with a suitable Green's function, or climate response function. Motivated by scaling symmetries which allow for long range dependence, we assume a general scaling form, a scaling climate response function (SCRF) which is able to produce a wide range of responses: a power-law truncated at τ. This allows us to analytically calculate the climate sensitivity at different time scales, yielding a one-to-one relation from the transient climate response to the equilibrium climate sensitivity which are estimated, respectively, as 1.6+0.3-0.2K and 2.4+1.3-0.6K at the 90 % confidence level. The model parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework, with a fractional Gaussian noise error model as the internal variability, from forcing series, instrumental surface temperature datasets and CMIP5 GCMs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario runs. This observation based model is robust and projections for the coming century are made following the RCP scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, yielding in the year 2100, respectively : 1.5 +0.3)_{-0.2K, 2.3 ± 0.4 K and 4.0 ± 0.6 K at the 90 % confidence level. For comparison, the associated projections from a CMIP5 multi

  19. Cosmic ray muon charge ratio derived from the new scaling variable model

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharya, D P

    1980-01-01

    The charge ratio of sea level muons has been estimated from the new scaling variable model and the CERN Intersecting Storage Ring data of Capiluppi et al. (1974) for pp to pi /sup +or-/X and pp to K/sup +or- /X inclusive reactions. The estimated muon charge ratio is found to be 1.21 and the result has been compared with the experimental data of Parker et al. (1969), Burnet et al. (1973), Ashley et al., and Muraki et al. (1979). (20 refs).

  20. Scheduling of power generation a large-scale mixed-variable model

    CERN Document Server

    Prékopa, András; Strazicky, Beáta; Deák, István; Hoffer, János; Németh, Ágoston; Potecz, Béla

    2014-01-01

    The book contains description of a real life application of modern mathematical optimization tools in an important problem solution for power networks. The objective is the modelling and calculation of optimal daily scheduling of power generation, by thermal power plants,  to satisfy all demands at minimum cost, in such a way that the  generation and transmission capacities as well as the demands at the nodes of the system appear in an integrated form. The physical parameters of the network are also taken into account. The obtained large-scale mixed variable problem is relaxed in a smart, practical way, to allow for fast numerical solution of the problem.

  1. Multispecialty physician practices: fixed and variable costs, and economies of scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weil, Thomas P

    2002-07-01

    Medical Group Management Association survey data from 1955 to 1999 was to assess fixed compared to variable cost and the existence of economies of scale among single- and multispecialty groups. During these intervening 44 years, physician operating costs were estimated to increase roughly three times the consumer price index. Among the multispecialty groups in 1999 at least 85% of total medical revenues were considered fixed costs when including a physician's compensation and fringe benefits. On the basis of relative value units (RVUs), 10 practitioners provided the maximum economies of scale. However, for multispecialty groups, based on a physician's total compensation, optimal efficiency occurred between 26 and 50 doctors. Those multispecialty practices with 51 or more MDs are thought to be "less efficient" for several reasons: they deliver care on multisites, experience a higher percentage of managed care patients, and are less effective in controlling their peers' use of time and resources.

  2. Application of latent variable model in Rosenberg self-esteem scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Shing-On; Wu, Hui-Ping

    2013-01-01

    Latent Variable Models (LVM) are applied to Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES). Parameter estimations automatically give negative signs hence no recoding is necessary for negatively scored items. Bad items can be located through parameter estimate, item characteristic curves and other measures. Two factors are extracted with one on self-esteem and the other on the degree to take moderate views, with the later not often being covered in previous studies. A goodness-of-fit measure based on two-way margins is used but more works are needed. Results show that scaling provided by models with more formal statistical ground correlated highly with conventional method, which may provide justification for usual practice.

  3. Psychometric properties of sleep quality scale and sleep variables questionnaire in Turkish student sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İsmail Önder

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sleep is a physiological need that affects physical and mental performances. However, the number of individuals who experience problems DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY RELATED TO sleep is increasing in VARIOUS countries. Therefore, it is important to have a short, reliable and valid measure to assess both sleep quality and sleep related variables in school-age children. This study aims to carry out the validity and reliability studies for the Sleep Quality Scale and Sleep Variables Questionnaire (SQS-SVQ used to determine sleep quality, parental control, total sleep time, mid-point of sleep and sleep efficiency and to adapt it into Turkish. The SQS-SVQ consists of seven scale items to measure sleep quality and eight questionnaire items. The validity and reliability studies of the instrument were carried out on data acquired from 4th-8th graders. Factorial validity for SQS and criterion related validity analyses were carried out for the validity of the SQS-SVQ and correlations ranged from 0.51 to 0.73. These analysis results put forth that the scale is a valid measurement tool. Internal consistency coefficient of the SQS was 0.72 and test-retest correlations of the SQS-SVQ ranged from 0.67 to 0.88. These acquired results indicated that the scale WAS reliable. Meanwhile, gender measurement invariance was tested for SQS and results indicated that gender measurement invariance was established. These results have shown that the SQS-SVQ can be used in social researches and especially in educational studies.

  4. Wave resource variability: Impacts on wave power supply over regional to international scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Helen; Fairley, Iain; Robertson, Bryson; Abusara, Mohammad; Masters, Ian

    2017-04-01

    The intermittent, irregular and variable nature of the wave energy resource has implications for the supply of wave-generated electricity into the grid. Intermittency of renewable power may lead to frequency and voltage fluctuations in the transmission and distribution networks. A matching supply of electricity must be planned to meet the predicted demand, leading to a need for gas-fired and back-up generating plants to supplement intermittent supplies, and potentially limiting the integration of intermittent power into the grid. Issues relating to resource intermittency and their mitigation through the development of spatially separated sites have been widely researched in the wind industry, but have received little attention to date in the less mature wave industry. This study analyses the wave resource over three different spatial scales to investigate the potential impacts of the temporal and spatial resource variability on the grid supply. The primary focus is the Southwest UK, a region already home to multiple existing and proposed wave energy test sites. Concurrent wave buoy data from six locations, supported by SWAN wave model hindcast data, are analysed to assess the correlation of the resource across the region and the variation in wave power with direction. Power matrices for theoretical nearshore and offshore devices are used to calculate the maximum step change in generated power across the region as the number of deployment sites is increased. The step change analysis is also applied across national and international spatial scales using output from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim hindcast model. It is found that the deployment of multiple wave energy sites, whether on a regional, national or international scale, results in both a reduction in step changes in power and reduced times of zero generation, leading to an overall smoothing of the wave-generated electrical power. This has implications for the

  5. Local adaptation in Trinidadian guppies alters stream ecosystem structure at landscape scales despite high environmental variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Troy N.; Bassar, Ronald D.; Binderup, Andrew J.; Flecker, Alex S.; Freeman, Mary C.; Gilliam, James F.; Marshall, Michael C.; Thomas, Steve A.; Travis, Joseph; Reznick, David N.; Pringle, Catherine M.

    2017-01-01

    While previous studies have shown that evolutionary divergence alters ecological processes in small-scale experiments, a major challenge is to assess whether such evolutionary effects are important in natural ecosystems at larger spatial scales. At the landscape scale, across eight streams in the Caroni drainage, we found that the presence of locally adapted populations of guppies (Poecilia reticulata) is associated with reduced algal biomass and increased invertebrate biomass, while the opposite trends were true in streams with experimentally introduced populations of non-locally adapted guppies. Exclusion experiments conducted in two separate reaches of a single stream showed that guppies with locally adapted phenotypes significantly reduced algae with no effect on invertebrates, while non-adapted guppies had no effect on algae but significantly reduced invertebrates. These divergent effects of phenotype on stream ecosystems are comparable in strength to the effects of abiotic factors (e.g., light) known to be important drivers of ecosystem condition. They also corroborate the results of previous experiments conducted in artificial streams. Our results demonstrate that local adaptation can produce phenotypes with significantly different effects in natural ecosystems at a landscape scale, within a tropical watershed, despite high variability in abiotic factors: five of the seven physical and chemical parameters measured across the eight study streams varied by more than one order of magnitude. Our findings suggest that ecosystem structure is, in part, an evolutionary product and not simply an ecological pattern.

  6. Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2013-04-01

    In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern

  7. Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

    2013-12-01

    Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for

  8. Modelling Pesticide Leaching At Column, Field and Catchment Scales Ii. Influence of Soil Variability On Small Scale Transfer Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulier, S.; Jarvis, N.

    The aim of this study was to investigate the differences in small scale transfer prop- erties in relation to variability of soil characteristics in a small undulating agricultural catchment (Vemmenhög, 9 km2), where texture and organic C content are strongly related to landscape position (see Gärdenäs et al., this session). Undisturbed soil col- umn samples (20 cm diameter, 20 cm height) were taken at two locations (4 columns at each location): on a hilltop (high clay content), and in a hollow (high C content). Transient leaching experiments for a tracer and a herbicide (MCPA) were carried out in two steps. After a first application of solute and pesticide the columns were ex- posed to natural rainfall. After one pore volume of drainage had flowed through the columns, they were transferred indoors. A second dose of tracer and pesticide was applied, and the columns were irrigated with half a pore volume of natural rainwa- ter. The breakthrough curves obtained for the hilltop columns showed strong evidence of macroporous flow. The flux concentrations and the resident concentration at the end of the experiment measured for the hollow columns suggested that the loss of pesticide from those columns is little. The MACRO model and the inverse modelling package SUFI were used to estimate the small scale parameters for water transfer, so- lute transport, and pesticide. Good agreement was obtained between model and data. Macroporous flow and diffusive transport through hilltop columns was highlighted by the high calibrated values of the effective diffusion pathlength and the dispersivity. As a consequence of the significant organic C content in the hollows, the value of the degradation rate coefficient for hollow columns was important. In both hilltop and hollow columns, the variation of the degradation rate coefficient between the first and the second application of MCPA showed the ability of the micro-organisms to adapt to the pesticide.

  9. The role of environmental variables in structuring landscape-scale species distributions in seafloor habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraan, Casper; Aarts, Geert; Van der Meer, Jaap; Piersma, Theunis

    2010-06-01

    Ongoing statistical sophistication allows a shift from describing species' spatial distributions toward statistically disentangling the possible roles of environmental variables in shaping species distributions. Based on a landscape-scale benthic survey in the Dutch Wadden Sea, we show the merits of spatially explicit generalized estimating equations (GEE). The intertidal macrozoobenthic species, Macoma balthica, Cerastoderma edule, Marenzelleria viridis, Scoloplos armiger, Corophium volutator, and Urothoe poseidonis served as test cases, with median grain-size and inundation time as typical environmental explanatory variables. GEEs outperformed spatially naive generalized linear models (GLMs), and removed much residual spatial structure, indicating the importance of median grain-size and inundation time in shaping landscape-scale species distributions in the intertidal. GEE regression coefficients were smaller than those attained with GLM, and GEE standard errors were larger. The best fitting GEE for each species was used to predict species' density in relation to median grain-size and inundation time. Although no drastic changes were noted compared to previous work that described habitat suitability for benthic fauna in the Wadden Sea, our predictions provided more detailed and unbiased estimates of the determinants of species-environment relationships. We conclude that spatial GEEs offer the necessary methodological advances to further steps toward linking pattern to process.

  10. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  11. The signatures of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability in Antarctic surface temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Gareth J.; Thompson, David W. J.

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the impact that the four principal large-scale patterns of Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation variability have on Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT): (1) the southern baroclinic annular mode (BAM), which is associated with variations in extratropical storm amplitude; (2) the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), associated with latitudinal shifts in the midlatitude jet; and (3) the two Pacific-South American patterns (PSA1 and PSA2), which are characterized by wave trains originating in the tropical Pacific that extend across the SH extratropics. A key aspect is the use of 35 years of daily observations and reanalysis data, which affords a sufficiently large sample size to assess the signatures of the circulation patterns in both the mean and variability of daily mean SAT anomalies. The BAM exerts the weakest influence on Antarctic SAT, albeit it is still important over select regions. Consistent with previous studies, the SAM is shown to influence SAT across most of the continent throughout the year. The PSA1 also affects SAT across almost all of Antarctica. Regionally, both PSA patterns can exert a greater impact on SAT than the SAM but also have a significantly weaker influence during summer, reflecting the seasonality of the SH response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The SAM and PSA patterns have distinct signatures in daily SAT variance that are physically consistent with their signatures in extratropical dynamic variability. The broad-scale climate linkages identified here provide benchmarks for interpreting the Antarctic climate response to future changes in tropical sea surface temperatures, ozone recovery, and greenhouse gas increases.

  12. Diagnosing the causes of decadal-scale precipitation variability in northeastern sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.

    2010-12-01

    The northeastern part of sub-Saharan Africa receives maximum rainfall during summer (June-September), as precipitation tracks the migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) throughout tropical eastern Africa. Importantly, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, and northern Uganda experienced substantial precipitation declines during the past 50-60 years. These declines have not been spatially uniform. In the southern portion of this region, the decline has been steady and is ongoing with ~15-20% less summer rainfall in recent years than in the 1950s and 1960s. In the northwest, rainfall is much more variable inter-annually and a partial recovery has occurred after declines of ~30% from 1950-1985. In the northeast, declines from 1950-1985 were less extreme and have since completely recovered. What is the reasoning behind the rainfall declines in these regions, and why have they reversed in the north but continued in the south? I use a variety of observational, reanalysis, and modeled climate data to address these questions. The ongoing intensification of drought in the south is mainly attributable to declining moisture transports from the tropical Indian Ocean as a result of increasing subsidence over the eastern Horn of Africa. The increasing subsidence appears to be associated with warming of the tropical warm pool and increasing convection above the warm pool. In northern Sudan and Ethiopia, the drought from 1950-1985 and subsequent recovery appear to be associated with decadal-scale variability in the position and intensity of the ITCZ. This variability may be due to variations in the contrasting temperatures of the northern and southern hemisphere. I will refer to modeled and reconstructed past climate data to address whether increasing global temperatures have impacted these large-scale climate processes impacting summer rainfall in northeastern sub-Saharan Africa.

  13. The role of simulated small-scale ocean variability in inverse computations for ocean acoustic tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dushaw, Brian D; Sagen, Hanne

    2017-12-01

    Ocean acoustic tomography depends on a suitable reference ocean environment with which to set the basic parameters of the inverse problem. Some inverse problems may require a reference ocean that includes the small-scale variations from internal waves, small mesoscale, or spice. Tomographic inversions that employ data of stable shadow zone arrivals, such as those that have been observed in the North Pacific and Canary Basin, are an example. Estimating temperature from the unique acoustic data that have been obtained in Fram Strait is another example. The addition of small-scale variability to augment a smooth reference ocean is essential to understanding the acoustic forward problem in these cases. Rather than a hindrance, the stochastic influences of the small scale can be exploited to obtain accurate inverse estimates. Inverse solutions are readily obtained, and they give computed arrival patterns that matched the observations. The approach is not ad hoc, but universal, and it has allowed inverse estimates for ocean temperature variations in Fram Strait to be readily computed on several acoustic paths for which tomographic data were obtained.

  14. RECOVERY OF LARGE ANGULAR SCALE CMB POLARIZATION FOR INSTRUMENTS EMPLOYING VARIABLE-DELAY POLARIZATION MODULATORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, N. J.; Marriage, T. A.; Appel, J. W.; Bennett, C. L.; Eimer, J.; Essinger-Hileman, T.; Harrington, K.; Rostem, K.; Watts, D. J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 N. Charles St., Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Chuss, D. T. [Department of Physics, Villanova University, 800 E Lancaster, Villanova, PA 19085 (United States); Wollack, E. J.; Fixsen, D. J.; Moseley, S. H.; Switzer, E. R., E-mail: Nathan.J.Miller@nasa.gov [Observational Cosmology Laboratory, Code 665, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)

    2016-02-20

    Variable-delay Polarization Modulators (VPMs) are currently being implemented in experiments designed to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background on large angular scales because of their capability for providing rapid, front-end polarization modulation and control over systematic errors. Despite the advantages provided by the VPM, it is important to identify and mitigate any time-varying effects that leak into the synchronously modulated component of the signal. In this paper, the effect of emission from a 300 K VPM on the system performance is considered and addressed. Though instrument design can greatly reduce the influence of modulated VPM emission, some residual modulated signal is expected. VPM emission is treated in the presence of rotational misalignments and temperature variation. Simulations of time-ordered data are used to evaluate the effect of these residual errors on the power spectrum. The analysis and modeling in this paper guides experimentalists on the critical aspects of observations using VPMs as front-end modulators. By implementing the characterizations and controls as described, front-end VPM modulation can be very powerful for mitigating 1/f noise in large angular scale polarimetric surveys. None of the systematic errors studied fundamentally limit the detection and characterization of B-modes on large scales for a tensor-to-scalar ratio of r = 0.01. Indeed, r < 0.01 is achievable with commensurately improved characterizations and controls.

  15. Recovery of Large Angular Scale CMB Polarization for Instruments Employing Variable-Delay Polarization Modulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, N. J.; Chuss, D. T.; Marriage, T. A.; Wollack, E. J.; Appel, J. W.; Bennett, C. L.; Eimer, J.; Essinger-Hileman, T.; Fixsen, D. J.; Harrington, K.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Variable-delay Polarization Modulators (VPMs) are currently being implemented in experiments designed to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background on large angular scales because of their capability for providing rapid, front-end polarization modulation and control over systematic errors. Despite the advantages provided by the VPM, it is important to identify and mitigate any time-varying effects that leak into the synchronously modulated component of the signal. In this paper, the effect of emission from a 300 K VPM on the system performance is considered and addressed. Though instrument design can greatly reduce the influence of modulated VPM emission, some residual modulated signal is expected. VPM emission is treated in the presence of rotational misalignments and temperature variation. Simulations of time-ordered data are used to evaluate the effect of these residual errors on the power spectrum. The analysis and modeling in this paper guides experimentalists on the critical aspects of observations using VPMs as front-end modulators. By implementing the characterizations and controls as described, front-end VPM modulation can be very powerful for mitigating 1/ f noise in large angular scale polarimetric surveys. None of the systematic errors studied fundamentally limit the detection and characterization of B-modes on large scales for a tensor-to-scalar ratio of r= 0.01. Indeed, r less than 0.01 is achievable with commensurately improved characterizations and controls.

  16. Impact of Large-Scale Climate Variability on Biogeochemical Processes in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, F. A.; Lee, S. K.; Liu, Y.; Lamkin, J. T.; Hernandez, F., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    Regional high-resolution modeling studies in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) suggest that significant changes may occur in the ocean circulations and hydrography due to anthropogenic greenhouse climate changes within this century. Particularly, surface temperatures in the northern GoM shelf are expected to increase more than 3°C at the end of the 21st century in a high CO2 emission scenario. Those changes most likely will have a strong impact on nutrient cycles, primary production, and dissolved oxygen concentration over the shelf, and cross-shelf exchanges of biological and chemical properties. However, we currently have a very limited understanding of how ocean biogeochemical processes in the northern GoM are influenced by large-scale climate variability in the region. In order to shed some light into this problem, we carried out a historical ocean-biogeochemical simulation for the period 1979 - 2015 using a high-resolution ( 8 km horizontally) ocean-biogeochemical model. This model is built on the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS), nested to a 25 km resolution global ocean-sea ice model, and forced with realistic surface fluxes from the ERA-interim reanalysis. River discharge is explicitly represented based on historical records. Nitrogen and oxygen cycles are simulated with the Fennel biogeochemical model. Here, we describe dominant plankton responses to interannual changes in wind-driven ocean circulations and river run-off over the northern GoM shelf, linking the main patterns of variability to relevant modes of climate variability, particularly El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This study attempts to advance our understanding of the interplay between physical and biogeochemical processes that determine ecosystem variability in the GoM, and thus will help us better project the GoM ecosystem responses to anthropogenic climate changes.

  17. Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Balance Variability: Linking Weather to Climate Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Clayson, Carol Anne

    2013-01-01

    Radiative and turbulent surface exchanges of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. These fluxes are integral components to tropical ocean-atmosphere variability; they can drive ocean mixed layer variations and modify the atmospheric boundary layer properties including moist static stability, thereby influencing larger-scale tropical dynamics. Non-parametric cluster-based classification of atmospheric and ocean surface properties has shown an ability to identify coherent weather regimes, each typically associated with similar properties and processes. Using satellite-based observational radiative and turbulent energy flux products, this study investigates the relationship between these weather states and surface energy processes within the context of tropical climate variability. Investigations of surface energy variations accompanying intraseasonal and interannual tropical variability often use composite-based analyses of the mean quantities of interest. Here, a similar compositing technique is employed, but the focus is on the distribution of the heat and moisture fluxes within their weather regimes. Are the observed changes in surface energy components dominated by changes in the frequency of the weather regimes or through changes in the associated fluxes within those regimes? It is this question that the presented work intends to address. The distribution of the surface heat and moisture fluxes is evaluated for both normal and non-normal states. By examining both phases of the climatic oscillations, the symmetry of energy and water cycle responses are considered.

  18. Variational Multi-Scale method with spectral approximation of the sub-scales.

    KAUST Repository

    Dia, Ben Mansour

    2015-01-07

    A variational multi-scale method where the sub-grid scales are computed by spectral approximations is presented. It is based upon an extension of the spectral theorem to non necessarily self-adjoint elliptic operators that have an associated base of eigenfunctions which are orthonormal in weighted L2 spaces. We propose a feasible VMS-spectral method by truncation of this spectral expansion to a nite number of modes.

  19. Small scale denitrification variability in riparian zones: Results from a high-resolution dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassen, Niklas; Knöller, Kay; Musolff, Andreas; Popp, Felix; Lüders, Tillmann; Stumpp, Christine

    2017-04-01

    Riparian zones are important compartments at the interface between groundwater and surface water where biogeochemical processes like denitrification are often enhanced. Nitrate loads of either groundwater entering a stream through the riparian zone or streamwater infiltrating into the riparian zone can be substantially reduced. These processes are spatially and temporally highly variable, making it difficult to capture solute variabilities, estimate realistic turnover rates and thus to quantify integral mass removal. A crucial step towards a more detailed characterization is to monitor solutes on a scale which adequately resemble the highly heterogeneous distribution and on a scale where processes occur. We measured biogeochemical parameters in a spatial high resolution within a riparian corridor of a German lowland river system over the course of one year. Samples were taken from three newly developed high-resolution multi-level wells with a maximum vertical resolution of 5 cm and analyzed for major ions, DOC and N-O isotopes. Sediment derived during installation of the wells was analyzed for specific denitrifying enzymes. Results showed a distinct depth zonation of hydrochemistry within the shallow alluvial aquifer, with a 1 m thick zone just below the water table with lower nitrate concentrations and EC values similar to the nearby river. Conservative parameters were consistent inbetween the three wells, but nitrate was highly variable. In addition, spots with low nitrate concentrations showed isotopic and microbial evidence for higher denitrification activities. The depth zonation was observed throughout the year, with stronger temporal variations of nitrate concentrations just below the water table compared to deeper layers. Nitrate isotopes showed a clear seasonal trend of denitrification activities (high in summer, low in winter). Our dataset gives new insight into river-groundwater exchange processes and shows the highly heterogeneous distribution of

  20. Investigation into the Horizontal Spatial Variability of Dew at Field-Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowlandson, T. L.; Hornbuckle, B. K.; Patton, J.; Russell, E.; Seier, K.; Spoth, K.

    2009-12-01

    The occurrence of free moisture on a crop canopy, whether in the form of intercepted precipitation or dew, has implications for both plant disease development and sensing of soil moisture by microwave remote sensing. In agriculture, the duration of leaf wetness can impact disease development, and with microwave remote sensing, free water on the canopy can influence the detection of soil moisture by increasing or decreasing the measured brightness temperature, depending on the canopy being investigated. Research has been conducted on the variability of dew vertically within a crop canopy; however the horizontal spatial variability of dew at the field scale had not yet been examined. We conducted a study in a maize field during the growing season of 2009 to investigate variations in dew duration and amount at 4 locations in a 1km2 with varying topography and soil characteristics. At each of the four sites, two leaf wetness sensors were installed at both 1/3- and 2/3-canopy height, providing insight into variations in dew duration between the four locations. Above canopy temperature and relative humidity were measured, in addition to in-canopy temperature and relative humidity, measured at half-canopy height. Soil moisture was measured continuously at each of the four locations. Physical samples were taken 11 times during the months of July and August, 2009. Sampling began at sunrise, and was conducted 3 times at each measurement location at both 1/3- and 2/3-canopy height. In addition to samples taken at sunrise, on three occasions, samples were taken at sunset, 11pm and 3am in order to monitor the progression of dew development. A sample at three of the locations occurred at the end of August to determine how dew varies at each location by taking simultaneous measurements. Leaf area index (LAI) was measured throughout the growing season at 1/3- and 2/3-canopy height at each measurement location. This information was utilized to investigate how dew measurements taken

  1. Mechanisms of the global electric circuit and lightning variability on the ENSO time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mareev, Evgeny; Volodin, Evgeny; Slyunyaev, Nikolay

    2017-04-01

    Many studies of lightning activity on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scale show increased activity over tropical land areas during the warm El Niño phase (e.g., Satori et al., 2009; Price, 2009). The mechanisms of this variability—particularly in terms of its role in the global electric circuit (GEC)—are still under debate (e.g., Williams and Mareev, 2014). In this study a general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean INMCM4.0 (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model) is used for modelling the GEC variability on the ENSO time scale. The ionospheric potential (IP) and the lightning flash rate are calculated to study regional peculiarities and possible mechanisms of lightning variation. The IP parameterisation is used (Mareev and Volodin, 2014) which takes into account quasi-stationary currents of electrified clouds (including thunderstorms) as principal contributors into the DC global circuit. The account of conductivity variation in the IP parameterisation is suggested based on the approach realised in (Slyunyaev et al., 2014). Comparison of simulation results with the observational data on lightning activity on the ENSO time scale is discussed. Numerical simulations suggest that the inter-annual IP variability is low and does not exceed 1% of the mean value, being tightly correlated with the mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean (180W-100W, 5S-5N—El Niño area). The IP maximum corresponds to the SST minimum. This result can be explained taking into account that during El Niño (positive temperature anomaly) precipitations in the equatorial part of the Pacific increase while in other tropic zones including the land areas they decrease. Comparison of simulation results with the observational data on lightning activity on the ENSO time scale is discussed. During the El Niño period in the model, the mean aerosol content in the atmosphere decrease, which is caused by the weakening of the winds over Sahara and

  2. Information transfer across the scales of climate variability: The effect of the 7-8 year cycle on the annual and interannual scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios

    2016-04-01

    Complexity of the climate system stems not only from the fact that it is variable over a huge range of spatial and temporal scales, but also from the nonlinear character of the climate system that leads to interactions of dynamics across scales. The dynamical processes on large time scales influence variability on shorter time scales. This nonlinear phenomenon of cross-scale causal interactions can be observed due to the recently introduced methodology [1] which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited bandwidth, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. An information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality [2] uncovers causal influence and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of air temperature records from various European locations, a quasioscillatory phenomenon with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as the factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [3]. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) [2] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [3] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Time-scales

  3. Millennial Scale Variability in Tropical South American Vegetation During the Last Glaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughen, K.; Drenzek, N.; Eglinton, T.; Bice, M.

    2005-12-01

    Millennial scale climate variability mirroring the Dansgaard-Oeschger events in Greenland ice cores has been recorded at locations around the globe. The forcing mechanisms responsible for these abrupt changes are hypothesized to originate at either high or low latitudes, but no evidence has yet confirmed either location. Detailed records of past shifts in the tropical hydrological cycle are needed to evaluate its potential role in causing abrupt global climate changes. The Cariaco Basin, off northern Venezuela, is situated along the northern margin of the seasonal range of the InterTropical Convergence Zone. Previously, vascular plant biomarkers have shown abrupt changes in terrestrial vegetation over northern South America, concurrent with rapid climate shifts of the last deglaciation. Carbon isotopes from long-chain n-alkanoic acids, a proxy for C3 versus C4 metabolic pathways, indicate that C3 plants predominated in the Cariaco watershed during warm/wet Bolling-Allerod and Holocene periods, and C4 plant biomass proliferated during cool/dry late Glacial and Younger Dryas intervals. The leaf wax data reveal that local vegetation biomass, although not necessarily entire biomes, shifted between arid grassland and wetter forest taxa on timescales of decades. Here we present new data from sediments of ODP Site 1002D in the Cariaco Basin that provide a record of terrestrial vegetation change and ITCZ variability over the past 60,000 years. Compound-specific carbon isotopes were measured on leaf waxes at about 500 year intervals, resolving millennial scale changes during Marine Isotope Stage 3. The complete record shows distinct isotopic shifts concurrent with D-O and Heinrich events in the high latitude N. Atlantic region. During D-O stadials and particularly Heinrich events, isotope ratios shift to enriched values, indicating increased C4 plant biomass and more arid conditions. The largest anomalies are seen during Heinrich events H0-H6, with isotopic shifts of up to

  4. Local-scale models reveal ecological niche variability in amphibian and reptile communities from two contrasting biogeographic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Xavier; Felicísimo, Ángel M.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to describe how environmental factors influence species distribution. Modelling at a local scale, compared to a large scale within a high environmental gradient, can improve our understanding of ecological species niches. The main goal of this study is to assess and compare the contribution of environmental variables to amphibian and reptile ENMs in two Spanish national parks located in contrasting biogeographic regions, i.e., the Mediterranean and the Atlantic area. The ENMs were built with maximum entropy modelling using 11 environmental variables in each territory. The contributions of these variables to the models were analysed and classified using various statistical procedures (Mann–Whitney U tests, Principal Components Analysis and General Linear Models). Distance to the hydrological network was consistently the most relevant variable for both parks and taxonomic classes. Topographic variables (i.e., slope and altitude) were the second most predictive variables, followed by climatic variables. Differences in variable contribution were observed between parks and taxonomic classes. Variables related to water availability had the larger contribution to the models in the Mediterranean park, while topography variables were decisive in the Atlantic park. Specific response curves to environmental variables were in accordance with the biogeographic affinity of species (Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean species) and taxonomy (amphibians and reptiles). Interestingly, these results were observed for species located in both parks, particularly those situated at their range limits. Our findings show that ecological niche models built at local scale reveal differences in habitat preferences within a wide environmental gradient. Therefore, modelling at local scales rather than assuming large-scale models could be preferable for the establishment of conservation strategies for herptile species in natural parks. PMID

  5. Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

    2013-01-01

    Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between

  6. Scaling of respiratory variables and the breathing pattern in birds: an allometric and phylogenetic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frappell, P B; Hinds, D S; Boggs, D F

    2001-01-01

    Allometric equations can be useful in comparative physiology in a number of ways, not the least of which include assessing whether a particular species deviates from the norm for its size and phylogenetic group with respect to some specific physiological process or determining how differences in design among groups may be reflected in differences in function. The allometric equations for respiratory variables in birds were developed 30 yr ago by Lasiewski and Calder and presented as "preliminary" because they were based on a small number of species. With the expanded data base now available to reconstruct these allometries and the call for taking account of the nonindependence of species in this process through a phylogenetically independent contrasts (PIC) approach, we have developed new allometric equations for respiratory variables in birds using both the traditional and PIC approaches. On the whole, the new equations agree with the old ones with only minor changes in the coefficients, and the primary difference between the traditional and PIC approaches is in the broader confidence intervals given by the latter. We confirm the lower VE/VO2 ratio for birds compared to mammals and observe a common scaling of inspiratory flow and oxygen consumption for birds as has been reported for mammals. Use of allometrics and comparisons among avian groups are also discussed.

  7. The Benefits of Latent Variable Modeling to Develop Norms for a Translated Version of a Standardized Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Hyojeong; Shaw, Leslie A.; Shogren, Karrie A.; Lang, Kyle M.; Little, Todd D.

    2017-01-01

    This article demonstrates the use of structural equation modeling to develop norms for a translated version of a standardized scale, the Supports Intensity Scale-Children's Version (SIS-C). The latent variable norming method proposed is useful when the standardization sample for a translated version is relatively small to derive norms…

  8. Predicting active-layer soil thickness using topographic variables at a small watershed scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Aidi; Tan, Xing; Wu, Wei; Liu, Hongbin; Zhu, Jie

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge about the spatial distribution of active-layer (AL) soil thickness is indispensable for ecological modeling, precision agriculture, and land resource management. However, it is difficult to obtain the details on AL soil thickness by using conventional soil survey method. In this research, the objective is to investigate the possibility and accuracy of mapping the spatial distribution of AL soil thickness through random forest (RF) model by using terrain variables at a small watershed scale. A total of 1113 soil samples collected from the slope fields were randomly divided into calibration (770 soil samples) and validation (343 soil samples) sets. Seven terrain variables including elevation, aspect, relative slope position, valley depth, flow path length, slope height, and topographic wetness index were derived from a digital elevation map (30 m). The RF model was compared with multiple linear regression (MLR), geographically weighted regression (GWR) and support vector machines (SVM) approaches based on the validation set. Model performance was evaluated by precision criteria of mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). Comparative results showed that RF outperformed MLR, GWR and SVM models. The RF gave better values of ME (0.39 cm), MAE (7.09 cm), and RMSE (10.85 cm) and higher R2 (62%). The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the DEM had less uncertainty than the AL soil thickness. The outcome of the RF model indicated that elevation, flow path length and valley depth were the most important factors affecting the AL soil thickness variability across the watershed. These results demonstrated the RF model is a promising method for predicting spatial distribution of AL soil thickness using terrain parameters.

  9. Predicting active-layer soil thickness using topographic variables at a small watershed scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aidi Li

    Full Text Available Knowledge about the spatial distribution of active-layer (AL soil thickness is indispensable for ecological modeling, precision agriculture, and land resource management. However, it is difficult to obtain the details on AL soil thickness by using conventional soil survey method. In this research, the objective is to investigate the possibility and accuracy of mapping the spatial distribution of AL soil thickness through random forest (RF model by using terrain variables at a small watershed scale. A total of 1113 soil samples collected from the slope fields were randomly divided into calibration (770 soil samples and validation (343 soil samples sets. Seven terrain variables including elevation, aspect, relative slope position, valley depth, flow path length, slope height, and topographic wetness index were derived from a digital elevation map (30 m. The RF model was compared with multiple linear regression (MLR, geographically weighted regression (GWR and support vector machines (SVM approaches based on the validation set. Model performance was evaluated by precision criteria of mean error (ME, mean absolute error (MAE, root mean square error (RMSE, and coefficient of determination (R2. Comparative results showed that RF outperformed MLR, GWR and SVM models. The RF gave better values of ME (0.39 cm, MAE (7.09 cm, and RMSE (10.85 cm and higher R2 (62%. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the DEM had less uncertainty than the AL soil thickness. The outcome of the RF model indicated that elevation, flow path length and valley depth were the most important factors affecting the AL soil thickness variability across the watershed. These results demonstrated the RF model is a promising method for predicting spatial distribution of AL soil thickness using terrain parameters.

  10. Leaf optical properties shed light on foliar trait variability at individual to global scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiklomanov, A. N.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.

    2016-12-01

    Recent syntheses of large trait databases have contributed immensely to our understanding of drivers of plant function at the global scale. However, the global trade-offs revealed by such syntheses, such as the trade-off between leaf productivity and resilience (i.e. "leaf economics spectrum"), are often absent at smaller scales and fail to correlate with actual functional limitations. An improved understanding of how traits vary within communities, species, and individuals is critical to accurate representations of vegetation ecophysiology and ecological dynamics in ecosystem models. Spectral data from both field observations and remote sensing platforms present a potentially rich and widely available source of information on plant traits. In particular, the inversion of physically-based radiative transfer models (RTMs) is an effective and general method for estimating plant traits from spectral measurements. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion of the PROSPECT leaf RTM to a large database of field spectra and plant traits spanning tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, agricultural plots, arid shrublands, and tundra to identify dominant sources of variability and characterize trade-offs in plant functional traits. By leveraging such a large and diverse dataset, we re-calibrate the empirical absorption coefficients underlying the PROSPECT model and expand its scope to include additional leaf biochemical components, namely leaf nitrogen content. Our work provides a key methodological contribution as a physically-based retrieval of leaf nitrogen from remote sensing observations, and provides substantial insights about trait trade-offs related to plant acclimation, adaptation, and community assembly.

  11. Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Stenni

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the

  12. Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenni, Barbara; Curran, Mark A. J.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Orsi, Anais; Goursaud, Sentia; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Neukom, Raphael; Goosse, Hugues; Divine, Dmitry; van Ommen, Tas; Steig, Eric J.; Dixon, Daniel A.; Thomas, Elizabeth R.; Bertler, Nancy A. N.; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Ekaykin, Alexey; Werner, Martin; Frezzotti, Massimo

    2017-11-01

    Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the δ18O-temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these

  13. Temporal changes in spatial variability of plant available water at the watershed scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Alwis, D. A.; Gerard-Merchant, P.; Philpot, W. D.; Steenhuis, T. S.

    2004-05-01

    Identification of soil moisture distribution patterns by remote-sensing at the basin scale has become a major challenge for variable source hydrology. On time scales of a few days, water uptake from plants and evaporation can change significantly as a result of soil moisture dynamics, while on a time scales of a few weeks vegetation dynamics may represent a strong relationship with soil moisture. This study explores the relationship between vegetation dynamics and soil water content/ subsurface storage. Multi-temporal, multi-spectral Remotely Sensed Landsat images are used to identify spatial differences and temporal changes of vegetative cover over a subbasin of the Cannonsville reservoir, in the Catskills mountains region of New York state. Vegetation indices are processed and compared for six months (April,May June, July, September and October) in 2001. For each month, three classes of vegetation indices were determined from the frequency distribution of indices over the study area. The histogram of the vegetation indices revealed hypothetical Gaussians corresponding with generic land uses (forest, open grass/shrublands, pasture/crops and plowed land), and were well correlated with land uses estimated by from other sources. Comparison from one month to another of the actual position in the landscape of these three index classes led to the identification of different zones sharing the same index distribution. These zones were also seen to follow the temporal growth curve characteristic of its particular vegetation types. The spatial variations patterns of vegetation indices within each land use zone were then compared with the patterns of soil moisture distribution, as output by a fully distributed hydrological model, SMDR.

  14. Climate variability rather than overstocking causes recent large scale cover changes of Tibetan pastures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehnert, Lukas; Wesche, Karsten; Trachte, Katja; Reudenbach, Christoph; Miehe, Georg; Bendix, Jörg

    2016-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau has been entitled "Third-Pole-Environment" because of its outstanding importance for the climate and the hydrology in East and South-east Asia. Its climatological and hydrological influences are strongly affected by the local grassland vegetation which is supposed to be subject to ongoing degradation. On a local scale, numerous studies focused on grassland degradation of the Tibetan pastures. However, because methods and scales substantially differed among previous studies, the overall pattern of the degradation in the Tibetan Plateau is unknown. Consequently, a satellite based approach was selected to cope with the spatial limitations. Therefore, a MODIS-based vegetation cover product was developed which is fully validated against 600 in situ measurements covering a wide extent of the Tibetan Plateau. The vegetation cover as a proxy for grassland degradation is modelled with low error rates using support vector machine regressions. To identify the changes in the vegetation cover, the trends seen in the new vegetation cover product since the beginning of the new millennium were analysed. The drivers of the vegetation changes were identified by the analysis of trends of climatic variables (precipitation and 2 m air temperature) and land-use (livestock numbers) over the same time. The results reveal that - in contrast to the prevailing opinion - pasture degradation on the Tibetan Plateau is not a generally proceeding process because areas of positive and negative changes are almost equal in extent. The positive and negative vegetation changes have regionally different triggers: While, from 2000 on, the vegetation cover has increased in the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau due to increasing precipitation, it has declined in the central and western parts due to rising air temperature and declining precipitation. Increasing livestock numbers as a result of land use changes exacerbated the negative trends but, contrarily to the assumptions of

  15. Improving the representation of river-groundwater interactions in land surface modeling at the regional scale: Observational evidence and parameterization applied in the Community Land Model

    KAUST Repository

    Zampieri, Matteo

    2012-02-01

    Groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, included in many land surface models to provide a lower boundary condition for soil moisture, which in turn plays a key role in the land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions and the ecosystem dynamics. In regional-scale climate applications land surface models (LSMs) are commonly coupled to atmospheric models to close the surface energy, mass and carbon balance. LSMs in these applications are used to resolve the momentum, heat, water and carbon vertical fluxes, accounting for the effect of vegetation, soil type and other surface parameters, while lack of adequate resolution prevents using them to resolve horizontal sub-grid processes. Specifically, LSMs resolve the large-scale runoff production associated with infiltration excess and sub-grid groundwater convergence, but they neglect the effect from loosing streams to groundwater. Through the analysis of observed data of soil moisture obtained from the Oklahoma Mesoscale Network stations and land surface temperature derived from MODIS we provide evidence that the regional scale soil moisture and surface temperature patterns are affected by the rivers. This is demonstrated on the basis of simulations from a land surface model (i.e., Community Land Model - CLM, version 3.5). We show that the model cannot reproduce the features of the observed soil moisture and temperature spatial patterns that are related to the underlying mechanism of reinfiltration of river water to groundwater. Therefore, we implement a simple parameterization of this process in CLM showing the ability to reproduce the soil moisture and surface temperature spatial variabilities that relate to the river distribution at regional scale. The CLM with this new parameterization is used to evaluate impacts of the improved representation of river-groundwater interactions on the simulated water cycle parameters and the surface energy budget at the regional scale. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  16. Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

    2016-04-01

    Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some

  17. California Coastal Low Clouds: Variability and Influences across Climate to Weather and Continental to Local Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Rachel E.

    Low coastal stratiform clouds (stratus, stratocumulus, and fog), referred to here as coastal low cloudiness (CLC), are a persistent seasonal feature of continental west coasts, including California. The importance of CLC ranges across fields, with applications ranging from solar resource forecasting, growth of endemic species, and heat wave expression and related health impacts. This dissertation improves our understanding of California's summertime CLC by describing its variability and influences on a range of scales from multidecadal to daily and continental to local. A novel achievement is the development of a new 19-year satellite-derived low cloud record. Trained on airport observations, this high resolution record plays a critical role in the description of CLC at finer spatial and shorter timescales. Observations at coastal airports from Alaska to southern California reveal coherent interannual to interdecadal variation of CLC. The leading mode of CLC variability, accounting for nearly 40% of the total variance, and the majority of individual airports, exhibit decreasing low cloudiness from 1950 to 2012. The coherent patterns of CLC variability are organized by North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The new satellite-derived low cloud retrieval reveals, in rich spatial texture, considerable variability in CLC within May-September. The average maximum cloudiness moves northward along the coast, from northern Baja, Mexico to northern California, from May to early August. Both component parts of lower tropospheric stability (LTS), SST and free-troposphere temperature, control this seasonal movement. The peak timing of cloudiness and daytime maximum temperatures are most closely aligned in northern California. On weather timescales, daily CLC anomalies are most strongly related to stability anomalies to the north (climatologically upwind) of the CLC region. CLC is strongly linked to stability in

  18. The effects of hillslope-scale variability in burn severity on post-fire sediment delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Dylan; Brooks, Erin; Dobre, Mariana; Lew, Roger; Robichaud, Peter; Elliot, William

    2017-04-01

    With the increasing frequency of wildfire and the costs associated with managing the burned landscapes, there is an increasing need for decision support tools that can be used to assess the effectiveness of targeted post-fire management strategies. The susceptibility of landscapes to post-fire soil erosion and runoff have been closely linked with the severity of the wildfire. Wildfire severity maps are often spatial complex and largely dependent upon total vegetative biomass, fuel moisture patterns, direction of burn, wind patterns, and other factors. The decision to apply targeted treatment to a specific landscape and the amount of resources dedicated to treating a landscape should ideally be based on the potential for excessive sediment delivery from a particular hillslope. Recent work has suggested that the delivery of sediment to a downstream water body from a hillslope will be highly influenced by the distribution of wildfire severity across a hillslope and that models that do not capture this hillslope scale variability would not provide reliable sediment and runoff predictions. In this project we compare detailed (10 m) grid-based model predictions to lumped and semi-lumped hillslope approaches where hydrologic parameters are fixed based on hillslope scale averaging techniques. We use the watershed scale version of the process-based Watershed Erosion Prediction Projection (WEPP) model and its GIS interface, GeoWEPP, to simulate the fire impacts on runoff and sediment delivery using burn severity maps at a watershed scale. The flowpath option in WEPP allows for the most detail representation of wildfire severity patterns (10 m) but depending upon the size of the watershed, simulations are time consuming and computational demanding. The hillslope version is a simpler approach which assigns wildfire severity based on the severity level that is assigned to the majority of the hillslope area. In the third approach we divided hillslopes in overland flow elements

  19. Multi-scale glycemic variability: a link to gray matter atrophy and cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingran Cui

    Full Text Available Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM accelerates brain aging and cognitive decline. Complex interactions between hyperglycemia, glycemic variability and brain aging remain unresolved. This study investigated the relationship between glycemic variability at multiple time scales, brain volumes and cognition in type 2 DM.Forty-three older adults with and 26 without type 2 DM completed 72-hour continuous glucose monitoring, cognitive tests and anatomical MRI. We described a new analysis of continuous glucose monitoring, termed Multi-Scale glycemic variability (Multi-Scale GV, to examine glycemic variability at multiple time scales. Specifically, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition was used to identify five unique ultradian glycemic variability cycles (GVC1-5 that modulate serum glucose with periods ranging from 0.5-12 hrs.Type 2 DM subjects demonstrated greater variability in GVC3-5 (period 2.0-12 hrs than controls (P<0.0001, during the day as well as during the night. Multi-Scale GV was related to conventional markers of glycemic variability (e.g. standard deviation and mean glycemic excursions, but demonstrated greater sensitivity and specificity to conventional markers, and was associated with worse long-term glycemic control (e.g. fasting glucose and HbA1c. Across all subjects, those with greater glycemic variability within higher frequency cycles (GVC1-3; 0.5-2.0 hrs had less gray matter within the limbic system and temporo-parietal lobes (e.g. cingulum, insular, hippocampus, and exhibited worse cognitive performance. Specifically within those with type 2 DM, greater glycemic variability in GVC2-3 was associated with worse learning and memory scores. Greater variability in GVC5 was associated with longer DM duration and more depression. These relationships were independent of HbA1c and hypoglycemic episodes.Type 2 DM is associated with dysregulation of glycemic variability over multiple scales of time. These time-scale-dependent glycemic fluctuations

  20. Performance of a Small-Scale, Variable Temperature Fixed Dome Digester in a Temperate Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan M. Castano

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Small-scale digesters, similar to popular Chinese designs, have the potential to address the energy needs of smaller dairy farmers in temperate U.S. climates. To assess this potential, a 1.14 m3 (300 gallon modified fixed-dome digester was installed and operated, at variable temperatures (5.3 to 27.9 °C typical of the Midwestern United States, from March 2010 to March 2011 (363 days. Temperature, gas production, and other variables were recorded. The system was fed with dilute dairy manure with 6% volatile solids (VS and an organic loading rate (OLR ranging from 0.83 to 2.43 kg volatile solids (VS/m3/day. The system was loaded with no interruption and exhibited no signs of inhibition from July 2010 to mid-November 2010 (129 days. During this period the digester temperature was over 20 °C with an average daily biogas production of 842 ± 69 L/day, a methane yield of 0.168 m3/kg VS added, and a Volatile Solids reduction of 36%. After the temperature dropped below 20 °C, the digester showed signs of inhibition and soured. These findings suggest that an ambient temperature, modified fixed dome digester could operate without temperature inhibition for approximately six months (169 days a year in a temperate climate when digester temperatures exceed 20 °C. However, during colder months the digester temperature must maintained above 20 °C for viable gas production year round.

  1. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  2. Earth-System Scales of Biodiversity Variability in Shallow Continental Margin Seafloor Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffitt, S. E.; White, S. M.; Hill, T. M.; Kennett, J.

    2015-12-01

    High-resolution paleoceanographic sedimentary sequences allow for the description of ecosystem sensitivity to earth-system scales of climate and oceanographic change. Such archives from Santa Barbara Basin, California record the ecological consequences to seafloor ecosystems of climate-forced shifts in the California Current Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). Here we use core MV0508-20JPC dated to 735,000±5,000 years ago (Marine Isotope Stage 18) as a "floating window" of millennial-scale ecological variability. For this investigation, previously published archives of planktonic δ18O (Globigerina bulloides) record stadial and interstadial oscillations in surface ocean temperature. Core MV0508-20JPC is an intermittently laminated archive, strongly influenced by the California Current OMZ, with continuously preserved benthic foraminifera and discontinuously preserved micro-invertebrates, including ophiuroids, echinoderms, ostracods, gastropods, bivalves and scaphopods. Multivariate statistical approaches, such as ordinations and cluster analyses, describe climate-driven changes in both foraminiferal and micro-invertebrate assemblages. Statistical ordinations illustrate that the shallow continental margin seafloor underwent predictable phase-shifts in oxygenation and biodiversity across stadial and interstadial events. A narrow suite of severely hypoxic taxa characterized foraminiferal communities from laminated intervals, including Bolivina tumida, Globobulimina spp., and Nonionella stella. Foraminiferal communities from bioturbated intervals are diverse and >60% similar to each other, and they are associated with echinoderm, ostracod and mollusc fossils. As with climate shifts in the latest Quaternary, there is a sensitive benthic ecosystem response in mid-Pleistocene continental margins to climatically related changes in OMZ strength.

  3. Fine-Scale Spatial Variability of Precipitation, Soil, and Plant Water Isotopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsmith, G. R.; Braun, S.; Romero, C.; Engbersen, N.; Gessler, A.; Siegwolf, R. T.; Schmid, L.

    2015-12-01

    constrain the variability within different water sources across space (e.g. when vizualized as isoscapes), as well as the extent of fractionation among those sources as water moves through the critical zone. In doing so, we also provide insight into how environment shapes this fine-scale variation in order to inform future applications of water isotopes.

  4. Important aspects of Eastern Mediterranean large-scale variability revealed from data of three fixed observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensi, Manuel; Velaoras, Dimitris; Cardin, Vanessa; Perivoliotis, Leonidas; Pethiakis, George

    2015-04-01

    Long-term variations of temperature and salinity observed in the Adriatic and Aegean Seas seem to be regulated by larger-scale circulation modes of the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) Sea, such as the recently discovered feedback mechanisms, namely the BiOS (Bimodal Oscillating System) and the internal thermohaline pump theories. These theories are the results of interpretation of many years' observations, highlighting possible interactions between two key regions of the EMed. Although repeated oceanographic cruises carried out in the past or planned for the future are a very useful tool for understanding the interaction between the two basins (e.g. alternating dense water formation, salt ingressions), recent long time-series of high frequency (up to 1h) sampling have added valuable information to the interpretation of internal mechanisms for both areas (i.e. mesoscale eddies, evolution of fast internal processes, etc.). During the last 10 years, three deep observatories were deployed and maintained in the Adriatic, Ionian, and Aegean Seas: they are respectively, the E2-M3A, the Pylos, and the E1-M3A. All are part of the largest European network of Fixed Point Open Ocean Observatories (FixO3, http://www.fixo3.eu/). Herein, from the analysis of temperature and salinity, and potential density time series collected at the three sites from the surface down to the intermediate and deep layers, we will discuss the almost perfect anti-correlated behavior between the Adriatic and the Aegean Seas. Our data, collected almost continuously since 2006, reveal that these observatories well represent the thermohaline variability of their own areas. Interestingly, temperature and salinity in the intermediate layer suddenly increased in the South Adriatic from the end of 2011, exactly when they started decreasing in the Aegean Sea. Moreover, Pylos data used together with additional ones (e.g. Absolute dynamic topography, temperature and salinity data from other platforms) collected

  5. Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

    2011-01-01

    interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

  6. Small-scale spatial variability of atrazine and dinoseb adsorption parameters in an alluvial soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mermoud, A; Martins, J M F; Zhang, D; Favre, A C

    2008-01-01

    Soil sorption processes largely control the environmental fate of herbicides. Therefore, accuracy of sorption parameters is crucial for accurate prediction of herbicide mobility in agricultural soils. A combined experimental and statistical study was performed to investigate the small-scale spatial variability of sorption parameters for atrazine and dinoseb in soils and to establish the number of samples needed to provide a value of the distribution coefficient (K(d)) next to the mean, with a given precision. The study explored sorption properties of the two herbicides in subsurface samples collected from four pits distributed along a transect of an alluvial soil; two to four samples were taken at about 30 cm apart at each sampling location. When considering all the data, the distribution coefficients were found to be normally and log-normally distributed for atrazine and dinoseb, respectively; the CVs were relatively high (close to 50% for dinoseb and 40% for atrazine). When analyzed horizon by horizon, the data revealed distribution coefficients normally distributed for both herbicides, whatever the soil layer, with lower CVs. The K(d) values were shown to vary considerably between samples collected at very short distance (a few centimeters), suggesting that taking a single soil sample to determine sorption properties through batch experiments can lead to highly unrepresentative results and to poor sorption/mobility predictions.

  7. Variability in the elastic properties of bovine dentin at multiple length scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deymier-Black, A C; Almer, J D; Stock, S R; Dunand, D C

    2012-01-01

    Various methods are used to investigate the variability in elastic properties across a population of deciduous bovine incisor root dentin samples spanning different animals, incisor types, and locations within teeth. First, measurements of elastic strains by high-energy synchrotron X-ray scattering during compressive loading of dentin specimens provided the effective modulus--the ratio of applied stress to elastic phase strain--for the two main phases of dentin (hydroxyapatite crystals and mineralized collagen fibrils), shedding light on load transfer operating at the nanoscale between collagen and mineral phases. Second, Young's moduli were measured at the macroscale by ultrasonic time-of-flight measurements. Third, thermogravimetry quantified the volume fractions of hydroxyapatite, protein and water at the macroscale. Finally, micro-Computed Tomography determined spatial variations of the mineral at the sub-millimeter scale. Statistical comparison of the above properties reveals: (i) no significant differences for dentin samples taken from different animals or different incisor types but (ii) significant differences for samples taken from the cervical or apical root sections as well as from different locations between buccal and lingual edges. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Dispersion in deep polar firn driven by synoptic-scale surface pressure variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Buizert

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Commonly, three mechanisms of firn air transport are distinguished: molecular diffusion, advection, and near-surface convective mixing. Here we identify and describe a fourth mechanism, namely dispersion driven by synoptic-scale surface pressure variability (or barometric pumping. We use published gas chromatography experiments on firn samples to derive the along-flow dispersivity of firn, and combine this dispersivity with a dynamical air pressure propagation model forced by surface air pressure time series to estimate the magnitude of dispersive mixing in the firn. We show that dispersion dominates mixing within the firn lock-in zone. Trace gas concentrations measured in firn air samples from various polar sites confirm that dispersive mixing occurs. Including dispersive mixing in a firn air transport model suggests that our theoretical estimates have the correct order of magnitude, yet may overestimate the true dispersion. We further show that strong barometric pumping, such as at the Law Dome site, may reduce the gravitational enrichment of δ15N–N2 and other tracers below gravitational equilibrium, questioning the traditional definition of the lock-in depth as the depth where δ15N enrichment ceases. Last, we propose that 86Kr excess may act as a proxy for past synoptic activity (or paleo-storminess at the site.

  9. Heart rate variability for assessing comatose patients with different Glasgow Coma Scale scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado-Ferrer, Yazmina; Estévez, Mario; Machado, Calixto; Hernández-Cruz, Adrián; Carrick, Frederick R; Leisman, Gerry; Melillo, Robert; Defina, Phillip; Chinchilla, Mauricio; Machado, Yanín

    2013-03-01

    To assess the autonomic nervous system (ANS) in coma by heart rate variability (HRV). Sixteen comatose patients and 22 normal subjects with comparable ages and genders were studied. Patients were classified in two subgroups according to the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Time, frequency, and informational HRV domain indices were calculated. A notable reduction of HRV was found in patients. Regarding the time domain indices, the triangular index, and the Delta_RRs, were significantly reduced in the subgroup with GCS=3. Absolute power for the whole frequency spectrum decreased whenever GCS scores were lower. A significant decrement was found for absolute power of the VLF and LF bands in the subgroup of GCS=3, and although it was lower for the HF band in these patients, those changes were not statistically significantly different. The LF/HF ratio and the Shannon´s entropy indices were significantly reduced in the subgroup with GCS=3. Our results are discussed regarding the progressive dysfunction the ANS networks when coma deepens. The HRV procedure is a powerful tool to assess the ANS in comatose patients. HRV is a minimally invasive, low-cost methodology, suitable for assessing the ANS in coma. Copyright © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Modeling the Power Variability of Core Speed Scaling on Homogeneous Multicore Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhihui Du

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We describe a family of power models that can capture the nonuniform power effects of speed scaling among homogeneous cores on multicore processors. These models depart from traditional ones, which assume that individual cores contribute to power consumption as independent entities. In our approach, we remove this independence assumption and employ statistical variables of core speed (average speed and the dispersion of the core speeds to capture the comprehensive heterogeneous impact of subtle interactions among the underlying hardware. We systematically explore the model family, deriving basic and refined models that give progressively better fits, and analyze them in detail. The proposed methodology provides an easy way to build power models to reflect the realistic workings of current multicore processors more accurately. Moreover, unlike the existing lower-level power models that require knowledge of microarchitectural details of the CPU cores and the last level cache to capture core interdependency, ours are easier to use and scalable to emerging and future multicore architectures with more cores. These attributes make the models particularly useful to system users or algorithm designers who need a quick way to estimate power consumption. We evaluate the family of models on contemporary x86 multicore processors using the SPEC2006 benchmarks. Our best model yields an average predicted error as low as 5%.

  11. Dendrogeomorphically derived slope response to decadal and centennial scale climate variability: Black Mesa, Arizona, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Scuderi

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available A major impediment to an understanding of the links between climate and landscape change, has been the relatively coarse resolution of landscape response measures (rates of weathering, sediment production, erosion and transport relative to the higher resolution of the climatic signal (precipitation and temperature on hourly to annual time scales. A combination of high temporal and spatial resolution dendroclimatic and dendrogeomorphic approaches were used to study relationships between climatic variability and hillslope and valley floor dynamics in a small drainage basin in the Colorado Plateau of northeastern Arizona, USA Dendrogeomorphic and vegetation evidence from slopes and valley bottoms, including root exposure, bending of trunks, change in plant cover and burial and exhumation of valley bottom trees and shrubs, suggest that the currently observed process of root colonization and rapid breakdown of the weakly cemented bedrock by subaerial weathering, related to periodic dry/wet cycle induced changes in vegetation cover, has lead to a discontinuous, climate-controlled production of sediment from these slopes. High-amplitude precipitation shifts over the last 2000-years may exert the largest control on landscape processes and may be as, or more, important than other hypothesized causal mechanisms (e.g. ENSO frequency and intensity, flood frequency in eroding slopes and producing sediments that ultimately impact higher order drainages in the region. Current vegetation response to a prolonged drought over the past decade suggests that another major transition, incorporating vegetation change, slope erosion, sediment production and subsequent valley floor deposition, may be in its initial phase.

  12. Visual assessment of breast density using Visual Analogue Scales: observer variability, reader attributes and reading time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, Teri; Harkness, Elaine F.; Maxwell, Anthony J.; Lim, Yit Y.; Emsley, Richard; Howell, Anthony; Evans, D. Gareth; Astley, Susan; Gadde, Soujanya

    2017-03-01

    Breast density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer and has potential use in breast cancer risk prediction, with subjective methods of density assessment providing a strong relationship with the development of breast cancer. This study aims to assess intra- and inter-observer variability in visual density assessment recorded on Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) among trained readers, and examine whether reader age, gender and experience are associated with assessed density. Eleven readers estimated the breast density of 120 mammograms on two occasions 3 years apart using VAS. Intra- and inter-observer agreement was assessed with Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and variation between readers visualised on Bland-Altman plots. The mean scores of all mammograms per reader were used to analyse the effect of reader attributes on assessed density. Excellent intra-observer agreement (ICC>0.80) was found in the majority of the readers. All but one reader had a mean difference of gender, or with reading time. Overall, the readers were consistent in their scores, although some large variations were observed. Reader evaluation and targeted training may alleviate this problem.

  13. WASTE SOLIDIFICATION BUILDING BENCH SCALE HIGH ACTIVITY WASTE SIMULANT VARIABILITY STUDY FY2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, E; Timothy Jones, T; Tommy Edwards, T; Alex Cozzi, A

    2009-03-20

    The primary objective of this task was to perform a variability study of the high activity waste (HAW) acidic feed to determine the impact of feed variability on the quality of the final grout and on the mixability of the salt solution into the dry powders. The HAW acidic feeds were processed through the neutralization/pH process, targeting a final pH of 12. These fluids were then blended with the dry materials to make the final waste forms. A secondary objective was to determine if elemental substitution for cost prohibitive or toxic elements in the simulant affects the mixing response, thus providing a more economical simulant for use in full scale tests. Though not an objective, the HAW simulant used in the full scale tests was also tested and compared to the results from this task. A statistically designed test matrix was developed based on the maximum molarity inputs used to make the acidic solutions. The maximum molarity inputs were: 7.39 HNO{sub 3}, 0.11618 gallium, 0.5423 silver, and 1.1032 'other' metals based on their NO{sub 3}{sup -} contribution. Substitution of the elements aluminum for gallium and copper for silver was also considered in this test matrix, resulting in a total of 40 tests. During the NaOH addition, the neutralization/pH adjustment process was controlled to a maximum temperature of 60 C. The neutralized/pH adjusted simulants were blended with Portland cement and zircon flour at a water to cement mass ratio of 0.30. The mass ratio of zircon flour to Portland cement was 1/12. The grout was made using a Hobart N-50 mixer running at low speed for two minutes to incorporate and properly wet the dry solids with liquid and at medium speed for five minutes for mixing. The resulting fresh grout was measured for three consecutive yield stress measurements. The cured grout was measured for set, bleed, and density. Given the conditions of preparing the grout in this task, all of the grouts were visually well mixed prior to preparing the

  14. Small-scale spatial variability of phenoxy acid mineralization potentials in transition zones with a multidisciplinary approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pazarbasi, Meric Batioglu

    activity was linked to the abundance of tfdA genes involved in phenoxy acid degradation depending on the MCPA leaching from the overlying agricultural soil expressed as long-term in situ MCPA exposure. Knowledge on the small-scale variability of mineralization potential is very important to predict...... classes in the different mineralization potentials of discharge zones. Understanding of the natural attenuation potential of groundwater-surface water transition zones is important for stream water protection. In landfill-impacted groundwater-surface water interface, we further analyzed bacterial......, the challenge of small-scale spatial variability occurs in terms of microbiological and physicochemical properties. We used genomic- and metagenomic-based approaches to reveal the effects of long-term phenoxy acid in situ exposure on the small-scale spatial variability of herbicide mineralization potentials...

  15. Spatial aggregation for crop modelling at regional scales: the effects of soil variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coucheney, Elsa; Villa, Ana; Eckersten, Henrik; Hoffmann, Holger; Jansson, Per-Erik; Gaiser, Thomas; Ewert, Franck; Lewan, Elisabet

    2017-04-01

    Modelling agriculture production and adaptation to the environment at regional or global scale receives much interest in the context of climate change. Process-based soil-crop models describe the flows of mass (i.e. water, carbon and nitrogen) and energy in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. As such, they represent valuable tools for predicting agricultural production in diverse agro-environmental contexts as well as for assessing impacts on the environment; e.g. leaching of nitrates, changes in soil carbon content and GHGs emissions. However, their application at regional and global scales for climate change impact studies raises new challenges related to model input data, calibration and evaluation. One major concern is to take into account the spatial variability of the environmental conditions (e.g. climate, soils, management practices) used as model input and because the impacts of climate change on cropping systems depend strongly on the site conditions and properties (1). For example climate change effects on yield can be either negative or positive depending on the soil type (2). Additionally, the use of different methods of upscaling and downscaling adds new sources of modelling uncertainties (3). In the present study, the effect of aggregating soil input data by area majority of soil mapping units was explored for spatially gridded simulations with the soil-vegetation model CoupModel for a region in Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia, NRW). The data aggregation effect (DAE) was analysed for wheat yield, water drainage, soil carbon mineralisation and nitrogen leaching below the root zone. DAE was higher for soil C and N variables than for yield and drainage and were strongly related to the spatial coverage of specific soils within the study region. These 'key soils' were identified by a model sensitivity analysis to soils present in the NRW region. The spatial aggregation of the key soils additionally influenced the DAE. Our results suggest that a spatial

  16. Spatial variability of soil salinity in coastal saline soil at different scales in the Yellow River Delta, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhuoran; Zhao, Gengxing; Gao, Mingxiu; Chang, Chunyan

    2017-02-01

    The objectives of this study were to explore the spatial variability of soil salinity in coastal saline soil at macro, meso and micro scales in the Yellow River delta, China. Soil electrical conductivities (ECs) were measured at 0-15, 15-30, 30-45 and 45-60 cm soil depths at 49 sampling sites during November 9 to 11, 2013. Soil salinity was converted from soil ECs based on laboratory analyses. Our results indicated that at the macro scale, soil salinity was high with strong variability in each soil layer, and the content increased and the variability weakened with increasing soil depth. From east to west in the region, the farther away from the sea, the lower the soil salinity was. The degrees of soil salinization in three deeper soil layers are 1.14, 1.24 and 1.40 times higher than that in the surface soil. At the meso scale, the sequence of soil salinity in different topographies, soil texture and vegetation decreased, respectively, as follows: depression >flatland >hillock >batture; sandy loam >light loam >medium loam >heavy loam >clay; bare land >suaeda salsa >reed >cogongrass >cotton >paddy >winter wheat. At the micro scale, soil salinity changed with elevation in natural micro-topography and with anthropogenic activities in cultivated land. As the study area narrowed down to different scales, the spatial variability of soil salinity weakened gradually in cultivated land and salt wasteland except the bare land.

  17. Relationship between Eurasian large-scale patterns and regional climate variability over the Black and Baltic Seas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stankunavicius, G.; Pupienis, D. [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Hydrology and Climatology; Basharin, D. [National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Sevastopol (Ukraine). Sevastopol Marine Hydrophysical Inst.

    2012-11-01

    Using a NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset and the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis approach we studied interannual to decadal variabilities of the sea-level air pressure (SLP) and the surface air temperature (SAT) fields over Eurasia during the 2nd part of the 20th century. Our results agree with those of the previous studies, which conclude that Eurasian trends are the result of storm-path changes driven by the interdecadal behaviour of the NAO-like meridional dipole pattern in the Atlantic. On interannual and decadal time scales, significant synchronous correlations between correspondent modes of SAT and SLP EOF patterns were found. This fact suggests that there is a strong and stable Eurasian interrelationship between SAT and SLP large-scale fields which affects the local climate of two sub-regions: the Black and Baltic Seas. The climate variability in these sub-regions was studied in terms of Eurasian large-scale surface-temperature and air-pressure patterns responses. We concluded that the sub-regional climate variability substantially differs over the Black and Baltic Seas, and depends on different Eurasian large-scale patterns. We showed that the Baltic Sea region is influenced by the patterns arising primary from NAO-like meridional dipole, as well as Scandinavian patterns, while the Black Sea's SAT/SLP variability is influenced mainly by the second mode EOF (eastern Atlantic) and large scale tropospheric wave structures. (orig.)

  18. On the Benefits of Latent Variable Modeling for Norming Scales: The Case of the "Supports Intensity Scale-Children's Version"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Hyojeong; Little, Todd D.; Shogren, Karrie A.; Lang, Kyle M.

    2016-01-01

    Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a powerful and flexible analytic tool to model latent constructs and their relations with observed variables and other constructs. SEM applications offer advantages over classical models in dealing with statistical assumptions and in adjusting for measurement error. So far, however, SEM has not been fully used…

  19. Advances in catchment scale bank erosion modelling - quantifying the improved representation of temporal and spatial variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janes, Victoria; Holman, Ian; O'Donnell, Greg; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Kilsby, Chris

    2015-04-01

    between 1239-2527 t yr-1 whereas for the same time period the modified model simulated between 677-3142 t yr-1. The modified model provides greater accuracy of spatial variability of bank erosion throughout the catchment when compared with observational data, enabling identification of areas naturally susceptible to erosion, and providing an indication of where protection measures will be most effective. The new channel bank erosion component enables SHETRAN to provide a more complete representation of sediment generation processes at a catchment scale, which will assist successful management of diffuse pollution issues.

  20. Building essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) of species distribution and abundance at a global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kissling, W Daniel; Ahumada, Jorge A; Bowser, Anne; Fernandez, Miguel; Fernández, Néstor; García, Enrique Alonso; Guralnick, Robert P; Isaac, Nick J B; Kelling, Steve; Los, Wouter; McRae, Louise; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Obst, Matthias; Santamaria, Monica; Skidmore, Andrew K; Williams, Kristen J; Agosti, Donat; Amariles, Daniel; Arvanitidis, Christos; Bastin, Lucy; De Leo, Francesca; Egloff, Willi; Elith, Jane; Hobern, Donald; Martin, David; Pereira, Henrique M; Pesole, Graziano; Peterseil, Johannes; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Schigel, Dmitry; Schmeller, Dirk S; Segata, Nicola; Turak, Eren; Uhlir, Paul F; Wee, Brian; Hardisty, Alex R

    2017-08-02

    Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a 'Big Data' approach to building global EBV data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence-only or presence-absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi-source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global EBV data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter- or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of EBVs by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building EBV data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and

  1. Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanski, Joy; Romanou, Anastasia; Bauer, Michael; Tselioudis, George

    2013-01-01

    We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

  2. Fine-scale spatial and interannual cadmium isotope variability in the subarctic northeast Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, D. J.; Abouchami, W.; Galer, S. J. G.; Cullen, J. T.

    2017-08-01

    that cannot be explained by a closed-system Rayleigh model. These results correspond with a warm water surface anomaly found along Line P in 2014 and demonstrate that there is interannual variability in the biogeochemical cycling of Cd and its isotopes in the subarctic North Pacific. In contrast to other ocean basins where vertical variability in ε 112 / 110Cd is observed at depth, deep and intermediate waters in the North Pacific have a near-uniform ε 112 / 110Cd value (mean of 1.14 ± 0.37, n = 43, 2SD) representative of nearly all samples at or below 1000 m depth. Imprinted upon this nearly homogeneous intermediate and deep North Pacific ε 112 / 110Cd signature are fine-scale spatial trends, with heavier values observed toward the coastal end of Line P than the oceanic end at intermediate depths, and with slightly heavier values in subtropical North Pacific deep water compared to the subarctic North Pacific. The nearly constant Cd isotopic composition of North Pacific deep waters is consistent with the inflow of Circumpolar Deep Water at depth in the Pacific basin, along with deep remineralization, and supports the potential of ε 112 / 110Cd as a tracer of global deepwater circulation.

  3. New Scaling Model for Variables and Increments with Heavy-Tailed Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riva, Monica; Guadagnini, Alberto; Neuman, Shlomo P.

    2015-04-01

    ΔY are mutually inconsistent. Our new theory shows that both "observations" stem from a misconception. We eliminate these apparent inconsistencies by deriving analytically the pdf of ΔY from that of Y , given that the latter is NLN. In our model the tail of the ΔY pdf scales with the correlation coefficient of G and thereby with lag; all other parameters of the pdf remaining unaltered with lag. We illustrate key features of our new model by way of synthetic examples. We then propose and test a methodology to estimate, accurately and efficiently, all model parameters using sample moments of both Y and ΔY . We end by exemplifying the use of our new model and method of inference by applying them to neutron porosity data from deep boreholes. References Clark, P.K. (1973), A subordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculative prices, Econometrica, 41, 1. Samorodnitsky, G., and M.S. Taqqu (1994), Stable Non-Gaussian Random Processes, Chapman and Hall, New York. Guadagnini, A., S.P. Neuman, T. Nan, M. Riva, and C.L. Winter (2015), Scalable statistics of correlated random variables and extremes applied to deep borehole porosities, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, in press.

  4. Solving the puzzle of discrepant quasar variability on monthly time-scales implied by SDSS and CRTS data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suberlak, Krzysztof; Ivezić, Željko; MacLeod, Chelsea L.; Graham, Matthew; Sesar, Branimir

    2017-12-01

    We present an improved photometric error analysis for the 7 100 CRTS (Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey) optical light curves for quasars from the SDSS (Sloan Digital Sky Survey) Stripe 82 catalogue. The SDSS imaging survey has provided a time-resolved photometric data set, which greatly improved our understanding of the quasar optical continuum variability: Data for monthly and longer time-scales are consistent with a damped random walk (DRW). Recently, newer data obtained by CRTS provided puzzling evidence for enhanced variability, compared to SDSS results, on monthly time-scales. Quantitatively, SDSS results predict about 0.06 mag root-mean-square (rms) variability for monthly time-scales, while CRTS data show about a factor of 2 larger rms, for spectroscopically confirmed SDSS quasars. Our analysis has successfully resolved this discrepancy as due to slightly underestimated photometric uncertainties from the CRTS image processing pipelines. As a result, the correction for observational noise is too small and the implied quasar variability is too large. The CRTS photometric error correction factors, derived from detailed analysis of non-variable SDSS standard stars that were re-observed by CRTS, are about 20-30 per cent, and result in reconciling quasar variability behaviour implied by the CRTS data with earlier SDSS results. An additional analysis based on independent light curve data for the same objects obtained by the Palomar Transient Factory provides further support for this conclusion. In summary, the quasar variability constraints on weekly and monthly time-scales from SDSS, CRTS and PTF surveys are mutually compatible, as well as consistent with DRW model.

  5. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Large-Scale Soil Moisture, its Temporal Variability and Associated Drought-Flood Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destouni, G.; Verrot, L.

    2015-12-01

    Soil moisture is a dynamic variable of great importance for water cycling and climate, as well as for ecosystems and societal sectors such as agriculture. Model representation of soil moisture and its temporal variability is, for instance, central for assessing the impacts of hydro-climatic change on drought and flood risks. However, our ability to assess such impacts and guide appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures is challenged by the need to link data and modeling across a range of spatiotemporal scales of relevance for the variability and change of soil moisture in long-term time series. This paper synthesizes recent advances for meeting this challenge by a relatively simple, analytical, data-driven approach to modeling the variability and change of large-scale soil moisture under long-term hydro-climatic change. Model application to two major Swedish drainage basins, and model-data comparison for ten study catchments across the United States shows the model ability to reproduce variability dynamics in long-term data series of the key soil-moisture variables: unsaturated water content and groundwater table position. The Swedish application shows that human-driven hydro-climatic shifts may imply increased risk for hydrological drought (runoff-related) and agricultural drought (soil moisture-related), even though meteorological drought risk (precipitation-related) is unchanged or lowered. The direct model-data comparison for ten U.S. catchments further shows good model representation of seasonal and longer-term fluctuation timings and frequencies for water content and groundwater level, along with physically reasonable model tendency to underestimate the local fluctuation magnitudes. Overall, the tested modeling approach can fulfill its main aim of screening long-term time series of large-scale hydro-climatic data (historic or projected for the future by climate modeling) for relatively simple, unexaggerated assessment of variability and change in key

  6. Landscape structure control on soil CO2 efflux variability in complex terrain: Scaling from point observations to watershed scale fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diego A. Riveros-Iregui; Brian L. McGlynn

    2009-01-01

    We investigated the spatial and temporal variability of soil CO2 efflux across 62 sites of a 393-ha complex watershed of the northern Rocky Mountains. Growing season (83 day) cumulative soil CO2 efflux varied from ~300 to ~2000 g CO2 m-2, depending upon landscape position, with a median of 879.8 g CO2 m-2. Our findings revealed that highest soil CO2 efflux rates were...

  7. Allometric convergence in savanna trees and implications for the use of plant scaling models in variable ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew T Tredennick

    Full Text Available Theoretical models of allometric scaling provide frameworks for understanding and predicting how and why the morphology and function of organisms vary with scale. It remains unclear, however, if the predictions of 'universal' scaling models for vascular plants hold across diverse species in variable environments. Phenomena such as competition and disturbance may drive allometric scaling relationships away from theoretical predictions based on an optimized tree. Here, we use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to calculate tree-specific, species-specific, and 'global' (i.e. interspecific scaling exponents for several allometric relationships using tree- and branch-level data harvested from three savanna sites across a rainfall gradient in Mali, West Africa. We use these exponents to provide a rigorous test of three plant scaling models (Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST, Geometric Similarity, and Stress Similarity in savanna systems. For the allometric relationships we evaluated (diameter vs. length, aboveground mass, stem mass, and leaf mass the empirically calculated exponents broadly overlapped among species from diverse environments, except for the scaling exponents for length, which increased with tree cover and density. When we compare empirical scaling exponents to the theoretical predictions from the three models we find MST predictions are most consistent with our observed allometries. In those situations where observations are inconsistent with MST we find that departure from theory corresponds with expected tradeoffs related to disturbance and competitive interactions. We hypothesize savanna trees have greater length-scaling exponents than predicted by MST due to an evolutionary tradeoff between fire escape and optimization of mechanical stability and internal resource transport. Future research on the drivers of systematic allometric variation could reconcile the differences between observed scaling relationships in variable ecosystems and

  8. Holocene North Atlantic Deep Water variability through a centennial-scale study of its precursor watermasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, I.; Bianchi, G.; Evans, J.; Cortijo, E.; Keigwin, L.; Schonfeld, J.

    2003-04-01

    Holocene climate proxy records increasingly indicate the presence of millennial- and centennial-scale climatic events that are subdued compared to their glacial counterparts. Nonetheless, it appears that their pacing and underlying cause(s) may be similar irrespective of whether the system is in a glacial or interglacial mode. Meridional circulation of the ocean plays a key role in the poleward transport of heat and freshwater. These ocean fluxes are intimately linked to the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Variability in deep ocean flow along Reykjanes Ridge, south of Iceland, has been demonstrated by grain size and lithological proxies with significant components of the variance in the band 1-2 ka. This is matched by records related to iceberg incursions that also show periodicity in this band recently ascribed to solar forcing. We present results of an ongoing study aimed at the centennial-scale monitoring of the principal deep inflows contributing to the formation of NADW over the past 10,000 years. Four cores from downstream of (west to east) Labrador Sea, Denmark Strait Overflow, Iceland-Scotland Ridge Overflow (ISOW) and Wyville-Thomson Ridge Overflow waters have been targeted for their strategic position and high sedimentation rates. Kasten core NEAP-4K and box core NEAP-4B from Bjorn Drift, northern Iceland Basin (1,627 m depth) display long-term trends in the grain size data (sortable silt mean size) that indicate a decrease in average relative flow speed starting at ~5 ka BP until ~1,5 ka BP. Superimposed on these trends are rapid centennial- to millennial-scale fluctuations in flow speed that allow the establishment of crucial correlations with proxy records of both ice-rafted debris sedimentation in the region and heat/moisture transport over the Atlantic coast of Ireland. Such evidence supports a role for the thermohaline circulation as an amplifier of small climate forcing in the Holocene as was observed in glacial times. Although no

  9. EGS Richardson AGU Chapman NVAG3 Conference: Nonlinear Variability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Schertzer

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available 1. The conference The third conference on "Nonlinear VAriability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes" (NVAG 3 was held in Cargese, Corsica, Sept. 10-17, 1993. NVAG3 was joint American Geophysical Union Chapman and European Geophysical Society Richardson Memorial conference, the first specialist conference jointly sponsored by the two organizations. It followed NVAG1 (Montreal, Aug. 1986, NVAG2 (Paris, June 1988; Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991, five consecutive annual sessions at EGS general assemblies and two consecutive spring AGU meeting sessions. As with the other conferences and workshops mentioned above, the aim was to develop confrontation between theories and experiments on scaling/multifractal behaviour of geophysical fields. Subjects covered included climate, clouds, earthquakes, atmospheric and ocean dynamics, tectonics, precipitation, hydrology, the solar cycle and volcanoes. Areas of focus included new methods of data analysis (especially those used for the reliable estimation of multifractal and scaling exponents, as well as their application to rapidly growing data bases from in situ networks and remote sensing. The corresponding modelling, prediction and estimation techniques were also emphasized as were the current debates about stochastic and deterministic dynamics, fractal geometry and multifractals, self-organized criticality and multifractal fields, each of which was the subject of a specific general discussion. The conference started with a one day short course of multifractals featuring four lectures on a Fundamentals of multifractals: dimension, codimensions, codimension formalism, b Multifractal estimation techniques: (PDMS, DTM, c Numerical simulations, Generalized Scale Invariance analysis, d Advanced multifractals, singular statistics, phase transitions, self-organized criticality and Lie cascades (given by D. Schertzer and S. Lovejoy, detailed course notes were sent to participants shortly after the

  10. EGS Richardson AGU Chapman NVAG3 Conference: Nonlinear Variability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

    1. The conference The third conference on "Nonlinear VAriability in Geophysics: scaling and multifractal processes" (NVAG 3) was held in Cargese, Corsica, Sept. 10-17, 1993. NVAG3 was joint American Geophysical Union Chapman and European Geophysical Society Richardson Memorial conference, the first specialist conference jointly sponsored by the two organizations. It followed NVAG1 (Montreal, Aug. 1986), NVAG2 (Paris, June 1988; Schertzer and Lovejoy, 1991), five consecutive annual sessions at EGS general assemblies and two consecutive spring AGU meeting sessions. As with the other conferences and workshops mentioned above, the aim was to develop confrontation between theories and experiments on scaling/multifractal behaviour of geophysical fields. Subjects covered included climate, clouds, earthquakes, atmospheric and ocean dynamics, tectonics, precipitation, hydrology, the solar cycle and volcanoes. Areas of focus included new methods of data analysis (especially those used for the reliable estimation of multifractal and scaling exponents), as well as their application to rapidly growing data bases from in situ networks and remote sensing. The corresponding modelling, prediction and estimation techniques were also emphasized as were the current debates about stochastic and deterministic dynamics, fractal geometry and multifractals, self-organized criticality and multifractal fields, each of which was the subject of a specific general discussion. The conference started with a one day short course of multifractals featuring four lectures on a) Fundamentals of multifractals: dimension, codimensions, codimension formalism, b) Multifractal estimation techniques: (PDMS, DTM), c) Numerical simulations, Generalized Scale Invariance analysis, d) Advanced multifractals, singular statistics, phase transitions, self-organized criticality and Lie cascades (given by D. Schertzer and S. Lovejoy, detailed course notes were sent to participants shortly after the conference). This

  11. Spatial variability of soil salinity at different scales in the mangrove rice agro-ecosystem in West Africa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sylla, M.; Stein, A.; Breemen, van N.; Fresco, L.O.

    1995-01-01

    Spatial variability of soil salinity in coastal low lands results from a complex interaction of climate, river hydrology, topography and tidal flooding. The aim of this study was to determine the significant effects of these causal factors at different scales in the West African mangrove

  12. The meganism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friedrich, T.; Timmermann, A.; Menviel, L.; Elison Timm, O.; Mouchet, A.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.

    2010-01-01

    The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (∼22.1 )

  13. Effects of rainfall spatial variability and intermittency on shallow landslide triggering patterns at a catchment scale

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    von Ruette, J; Lehmann, P; Or, D

    2014-01-01

    ...., hourly radar data at spatial resolution of a few kilometers). To quantify potential effects of rainfall variability on failure dynamics, spatial patterns, landslide numbers and volumes, we employed...

  14. Deconvolution of pigment and physiologically related photochemical reflectance index variability at the canopy scale over an entire growing season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hmimina, G; Merlier, E; Dufrêne, E; Soudani, K

    2015-08-01

    The sensitivity of the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) to leaf pigmentation and its impacts on its potential as a proxy for light-use efficiency (LUE) have recently been shown to be problematic at the leaf scale. Most leaf-to-leaf and seasonal variability can be explained by such a confounding effect. This study relies on the analysis of PRI light curves that were generated at the canopy scale under natural conditions to derive a precise deconvolution of pigment-related and physiologically related variability in the PRI. These sources of variability were explained by measured or estimated physiologically relevant variables, such as soil water content, that can be used as indicators of water availability and canopy chlorophyll content. The PRI mainly reflected the variability in the pigment content of the canopy. However, the corrected PRI, which was obtained by subtracting the pigment-related seasonal variability from the PRI measurement, was highly correlated with the upscaled LUE measurements. Moreover, the sensitivity of the PRI to the leaf pigment content may mask the PRI versus LUE relationship or result in an artificial relationship that reflects the relationship of chlorophyll versus LUE, depending on the species phenology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Fine-scale distribution and spatial variability of benthic invertebrate larvae in an open coastal embayment in Nova Scotia, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Rémi M; Metaxas, Anna; deYoung, Brad

    2014-01-01

    This study quantified the fine- scale (0.5 km) of variability in the horizontal distributions of benthic invertebrate larvae and related this variability to that in physical and biological variables, such as density, temperature, salinity, fluorescence and current velocity. Larvae were sampled in contiguous 500-m transects along two perpendicular 10-km transects with a 200-µm plankton ring net (0.75-m diameter) in St. George's Bay, Nova Scotia, Canada, in Aug 2009. Temperature, conductivity, pressure and fluorescence were measured with a CTD cast at each station, and currents were measured with an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler moored at the intersection of the 2 transects. Gastropod, bivalve and, to a lesser extent, bryozoan larvae had very similar spatial distributions, but the distribution of decapod larvae had a different pattern. These findings suggest that taxonomic groups with functionally similar larvae have similar dispersive properties such as distribution and spatial variability, while the opposite is true for groups with functionally dissimilar larvae. The spatial variability in larval distributions was anisotropic and matched the temporal/spatial variability in the current velocity. We postulate that in a system with no strong oceanographic features, the scale of spatially coherent physical forcing (e.g. tidal periodicity) can regulate the formation or maintenance of larval patches; however, swimming ability may modulate it.

  16. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunsell, Nathaniel [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Mechem, David [Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS (United States); Ma, Chunsheng [Wichita State Univ., KS (United States)

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  17. Collaborative project. Ocean-atmosphere interaction from meso- to planetary-scale. Mechanics, parameterization, and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Small, Justin [National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Most climate models are currently run with grid spacings of around 100km, which, with today’s computing power, allows for long (up to 1000 year) simulations, or ensembles of simulations to explore climate change and variability. However this grid spacing does not resolve important components of the weather/climate system such as atmospheric fronts and mesoscale systems, and ocean boundary currents and eddies. The overall aim of this project has been to look at the effect of these small-scale features on the weather/climate system using a suite of high and low resolution climate models, idealized models and observations. High-resolution global coupled integrations using CAM/CESM were carried out at NCAR by the lead PI. At TAMU, we have complemented the work at NCAR by analyzing datasets from the high-resolution (28km) CESM integrations (Small et al., 2014) as well as very high resolution (9km, 3km) runs using a coupled regional climate (CRCM) carried out locally. The main tasks carried out were: 1. Analysis of surface wind in observations and high-resolution CAM/CCSM simulations 2. Development of a feature-tracking algorithm for studying midlatitude air-sea interaction by following oceanic mesoscale eddies and creating composites of the atmospheric response overlying the eddies. 3. Applying the Lagrangian analysis technique in the Gulf Stream region to compare data from observational reanalyses, global CESM coupled simulations, 9km regional coupled simulations and 3km convection-resolving regional coupled simulations. Our main findings are that oceanic mesoscale eddies influence not just the atmospheric boundary layer above them, but also the lower portions of the free troposphere above the boundary layer. Such a vertical response could have implications for a remote influence of Gulf Stream oceanic eddies on North Atlantic weather patterns through modulation of the storm track, similar to what has been noted in the North Pacific. The coarse resolution

  18. Influence of plant productivity over variability of soil respiration: a multi-scale approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curiel Yuste, J.

    2009-04-01

    To investigate the role of plant photosynthetic activity on the variations in soil respiration (SR), SR data obtained from manual sampling and automatic soil respiration chambers placed on eddy flux towers sites were used. Plant photosynthetic activity was represented as Gross Primary Production (GPP), calculated from the half hourly continuous measurements of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE). The role of plant photosynthetic activity over the variation in SR was investigated at different time-scales: data averaged hourly, daily and weekly were used to study the photosynthetic effect on SR dial variations (Hourly data), 15 days variations (Daily averages), monthly variations (daily and weekly averages) and seasonal variations (weekly data). Our results confirm the important role of plant photosynthetic activity on the variations of SR at each of the mentioned time-scales. The effect of photosynthetic activity on SR was high on hourly time-scale (dial variations of SR). At half of the studied ecosystems GPP was the best single predictor of dial variations of SR. However at most of the studied sites the combination of soil temperature and GPP was the best predictor of dial variations in SR. The effect of aboveground productivity over dial variations of SR lagged on the range of 5 to 15 hours, depending on the ecosystem. At daily to monthly time scale variations of SR were in general better explained with the combination of temperature and moisture variations. However, ‘jumps' in average weekly SR during the growing season yielded anomaly high values of Q10, in some cases above 1000, which probably reflects synoptic changes in photosynthates translocation from plant activity. Finally, although seasonal changes of SR were in general very well explained by temperature and soil moisture, seasonality of SR was better correlated to seasonality of GPP than to seasonality of soil temperature and/or soil moisture. Therefore the magnitude of the seasonal variation in SR was in

  19. Searching for the right scale in catchment hydrology: the effect of soil spatial variability in simulated states and fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baroni, Gabriele; Zink, Matthias; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Attinger, Sabine

    2017-04-01

    The advances in computer science and the availability of new detailed data-sets have led to a growing number of distributed hydrological models applied to finer and finer grid resolutions for larger and larger catchment areas. It was argued, however, that this trend does not necessarily guarantee better understanding of the hydrological processes or it is even not necessary for specific modelling applications. In the present study, this topic is further discussed in relation to the soil spatial heterogeneity and its effect on simulated hydrological state and fluxes. To this end, three methods are developed and used for the characterization of the soil heterogeneity at different spatial scales. The methods are applied at the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as example. The different soil realizations are assessed regarding their impact on simulated state and fluxes using the distributed hydrological model mHM. The results are analysed by aggregating the model outputs at different spatial scales based on the Representative Elementary Scale concept (RES) proposed by Refsgaard et al. (2016). The analysis is further extended in the present study by aggregating the model output also at different temporal scales. The results show that small scale soil variabilities are not relevant when the integrated hydrological responses are considered e.g., simulated streamflow or average soil moisture over sub-catchments. On the contrary, these small scale soil variabilities strongly affect locally simulated states and fluxes i.e., soil moisture and evapotranspiration simulated at the grid resolution. A clear trade-off is also detected by aggregating the model output by spatial and temporal scales. Despite the scale at which the soil variabilities are (or are not) relevant is not universal, the RES concept provides a simple and effective framework to quantify the predictive capability of distributed models and to identify the need for further model improvements e

  20. Spatial Scaling of Environmental Variables Improves Species-Habitat Models of Fishes in a Small, Sand-Bed Lowland River.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radinger, Johannes; Wolter, Christian; Kail, Jochem

    2015-01-01

    Habitat suitability and the distinct mobility of species depict fundamental keys for explaining and understanding the distribution of river fishes. In recent years, comprehensive data on river hydromorphology has been mapped at spatial scales down to 100 m, potentially serving high resolution species-habitat models, e.g., for fish. However, the relative importance of specific hydromorphological and in-stream habitat variables and their spatial scales of influence is poorly understood. Applying boosted regression trees, we developed species-habitat models for 13 fish species in a sand-bed lowland river based on river morphological and in-stream habitat data. First, we calculated mean values for the predictor variables in five distance classes (from the sampling site up to 4000 m up- and downstream) to identify the spatial scale that best predicts the presence of fish species. Second, we compared the suitability of measured variables and assessment scores related to natural reference conditions. Third, we identified variables which best explained the presence of fish species. The mean model quality (AUC = 0.78, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) significantly increased when information on the habitat conditions up- and downstream of a sampling site (maximum AUC at 2500 m distance class, +0.049) and topological variables (e.g., stream order) were included (AUC = +0.014). Both measured and assessed variables were similarly well suited to predict species' presence. Stream order variables and measured cross section features (e.g., width, depth, velocity) were best-suited predictors. In addition, measured channel-bed characteristics (e.g., substrate types) and assessed longitudinal channel features (e.g., naturalness of river planform) were also good predictors. These findings demonstrate (i) the applicability of high resolution river morphological and instream-habitat data (measured and assessed variables) to predict fish presence, (ii) the

  1. Spatial Scaling of Environmental Variables Improves Species-Habitat Models of Fishes in a Small, Sand-Bed Lowland River.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Radinger

    Full Text Available Habitat suitability and the distinct mobility of species depict fundamental keys for explaining and understanding the distribution of river fishes. In recent years, comprehensive data on river hydromorphology has been mapped at spatial scales down to 100 m, potentially serving high resolution species-habitat models, e.g., for fish. However, the relative importance of specific hydromorphological and in-stream habitat variables and their spatial scales of influence is poorly understood. Applying boosted regression trees, we developed species-habitat models for 13 fish species in a sand-bed lowland river based on river morphological and in-stream habitat data. First, we calculated mean values for the predictor variables in five distance classes (from the sampling site up to 4000 m up- and downstream to identify the spatial scale that best predicts the presence of fish species. Second, we compared the suitability of measured variables and assessment scores related to natural reference conditions. Third, we identified variables which best explained the presence of fish species. The mean model quality (AUC = 0.78, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve significantly increased when information on the habitat conditions up- and downstream of a sampling site (maximum AUC at 2500 m distance class, +0.049 and topological variables (e.g., stream order were included (AUC = +0.014. Both measured and assessed variables were similarly well suited to predict species' presence. Stream order variables and measured cross section features (e.g., width, depth, velocity were best-suited predictors. In addition, measured channel-bed characteristics (e.g., substrate types and assessed longitudinal channel features (e.g., naturalness of river planform were also good predictors. These findings demonstrate (i the applicability of high resolution river morphological and instream-habitat data (measured and assessed variables to predict fish presence, (ii the

  2. Spatial Scaling of Environmental Variables Improves Species-Habitat Models of Fishes in a Small, Sand-Bed Lowland River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radinger, Johannes; Wolter, Christian; Kail, Jochem

    2015-01-01

    Habitat suitability and the distinct mobility of species depict fundamental keys for explaining and understanding the distribution of river fishes. In recent years, comprehensive data on river hydromorphology has been mapped at spatial scales down to 100 m, potentially serving high resolution species-habitat models, e.g., for fish. However, the relative importance of specific hydromorphological and in-stream habitat variables and their spatial scales of influence is poorly understood. Applying boosted regression trees, we developed species-habitat models for 13 fish species in a sand-bed lowland river based on river morphological and in-stream habitat data. First, we calculated mean values for the predictor variables in five distance classes (from the sampling site up to 4000 m up- and downstream) to identify the spatial scale that best predicts the presence of fish species. Second, we compared the suitability of measured variables and assessment scores related to natural reference conditions. Third, we identified variables which best explained the presence of fish species. The mean model quality (AUC = 0.78, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) significantly increased when information on the habitat conditions up- and downstream of a sampling site (maximum AUC at 2500 m distance class, +0.049) and topological variables (e.g., stream order) were included (AUC = +0.014). Both measured and assessed variables were similarly well suited to predict species’ presence. Stream order variables and measured cross section features (e.g., width, depth, velocity) were best-suited predictors. In addition, measured channel-bed characteristics (e.g., substrate types) and assessed longitudinal channel features (e.g., naturalness of river planform) were also good predictors. These findings demonstrate (i) the applicability of high resolution river morphological and instream-habitat data (measured and assessed variables) to predict fish presence, (ii) the

  3. Validation of the Oral Hygiene Habits Scale: Relationships with sociodemographic variables in the general and clinical population of Monterrey, Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norma Rodríguez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Several socioeconomic factors are associated with poor oral hygiene habits. A version of the Oral Hygiene Habits Scale (OHHS was developed in Mexico to measure these factors; however, its relationship with sociodemographic variables has not been studied. The verification of these relationships could contribute to the validation of the scale. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between oral hygiene habits and sociodemographic variables of sex, age, schooling, self-defined socioeconomic stratum, occupation and marital status in the general and clinical population of Monterrey, Mexico. Materials and Methods: A general population sample (GPS of 256 participants and a clinical sample (CPS of 240 participants were studied. The OHHS consisted of an eight-item Likert scale of 4 points ranging from 0 to 4. A descriptive correlational study was performed with a cross-sectional design. Data were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Spearman correlation coefficient, Cramer's V coefficient, and multivariate aligned rank test. Results: In GPS and CPS groups, OHHS was related to sex, schooling, socioeconomic stratum, occupation and marital status, but not to age. There were no significant interactions between the samples (GPS and CPS and sociodemographic variables. Conclusion: There is a statistically significant relationship between oral hygiene habits and some sociodemographic variables in the general and clinical population. This relationship supports the validity of the OHHS.

  4. The mechanism behind internally generated centennial-to-millennial scale climate variability in an earth system model of intermediate complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Friedrich

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism triggering centennial-to-millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC in the earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM is investigated. It is found that for several climate boundary conditions such as low obliquity values (~22.1° or LGM-albedo, internally generated centennial-to-millennial-scale variability occurs in the North Atlantic region. Stochastic excitations of the density-driven overturning circulation in the Nordic Seas can create regional sea-ice anomalies and a subsequent reorganization of the atmospheric circulation. The resulting remote atmospheric anomalies over the Hudson Bay can release freshwater pulses into the Labrador Sea and significantly increase snow fall in this region leading to a subsequent reduction of convective activity. The millennial-scale AMOC oscillations disappear if LGM bathymetry (with closed Hudson Bay is prescribed or if freshwater pulses are suppressed artificially. Furthermore, our study documents the process of the AMOC recovery as well as the global marine and terrestrial carbon cycle response to centennial-to-millennial-scale AMOC variability.

  5. Multi-scale climate modelling over Southern Africa using a variable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evidence is provided of the successful application of a single atmospheric model code at time scales ranging from short-range weather forecasting through to projections of future climate change, and at spatial scales that vary from relatively low-resolution global simulations, to ultra-high resolution simulations at the ...

  6. Evaluating two model reduction approaches for large scale hedonic models sensitive to omitted variables and multicollinearity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2014-01-01

    Hedonic models in environmental valuation studies have grown in terms of number of transactions and number of explanatory variables. We focus on the practical challenge of model reduction, when aiming for reliable parsimonious models, sensitive to omitted variable bias and multicollinearity. We...... evaluate two common model reduction approaches in an empirical case. The first relies on a principal component analysis (PCA) used to construct new orthogonal variables, which are applied in the hedonic model. The second relies on a stepwise model reduction based on the variance inflation index and Akaike......’s information criteria. Our empirical application focuses on estimating the implicit price of forest proximity in a Danish case area, with a dataset containing 86 relevant variables. We demonstrate that the estimated implicit price for forest proximity, while positive in all models, is clearly sensitive...

  7. The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

    2015-04-01

    In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

  8. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  9. A Framework for Thinking about the Spatial Variability of Snow across Multiple Scales and Climate Zones (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sturm, M.

    2010-12-01

    It is well known that snow on the ground (or on lake and sea ice) varies at a myriad of scales ranging from millimeters to hundreds of kilometers. Many studies have focused directly, or in part, on snow heterogeneity at one or more of these scales, but a consistent broad framework within which these studies can be placed has yet to be developed. Consequently, the overall approach to scaling issues and snow variability is disjoint and inefficient. Nevertheless, strong common threads unite these issues. At the finest scale within-layer variations always arise from vapor transport and snow metamorphism. Layer properties vary based on weather during deposition and following snowfall (winter history). At plot to landscape scales, micro and macro topography and vegetation interact with wind, solar irradience, melt water percolation, and gravity to produce lateral variations in depth and snow water equivalent. At the coarsest scales, synoptic and climate gradients produce facies changes in both layers and bulk snow cover characteristics that vary in predictable ways. Here a preliminary multi-scale framework for snow variations is suggested and its utility discussed. At the largest scale, the framework uses the snow climate classification as a first discriminator. These classes are divided into wind-affected vs. non-wind-affected snow. Landscape and local variations in topography are then superimposed on these coarser-scale variations. Because vegetation varies with both climate and topography, it correlates with, as well as drives variations snow property variations; it becomes the third discriminator. Using these discriminators, similarities in snow variations and critical inherent length scales of several types of snow covers are explored.

  10. Comparative Analysis of Decoupling Control Methodologies and H∞ Multivariable Robust Control for Variable-Speed, Variable-Pitch Wind Turbines: Application to a Lab-Scale Wind Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Fragoso

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This work is focused on the improvement of variable-speed variable-pitch wind turbine performance by means of its control structure. This kind of systems can be considered as multivariable nonlinear processes subjected to undesired interactions between variables and presenting different dynamics at different operational zones. This interaction level and the dynamics uncertainties complicate the control system design. The aim of this work is developing multivariable controllers that cope with such problems. The study shows the applicability of different decoupling methodologies and provides a comparison with a H∞ controller, which is an appropriate strategy to cope with uncertainties. The methodologies have been tested in simulation and verified experimentally in a lab-scale wind turbine. It is demonstrated that the wind turbine presents more interaction at the transition zone. Then, this operational point is used as the nominal one for the controller designs. At this point, decoupling controllers obtain perfect decoupling while the H∞ control presents important interaction in the generated power loop. On the other hand, they are slightly surpassed by the robust design at other points, where perfect decoupling is not achieved. However, decoupling controllers are easier to design and implement, and specifically dynamic simplified decoupling achieve the best global response. Then, it is concluded that the proposed methodologies can be considered for implantation in industrial wind turbines to improve their performance.

  11. Short time-scale variables in the Gaia era: detection and characterization by structure function analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roelens, Maroussia; Eyer, Laurent; Mowlavi, Nami; Lecoeur-Taïbi, Isabelle; Rimoldini, Lorenzo; Blanco-Cuaresma, Sergi; Palaversa, Lovro; Süveges, Maria; Charnas, Jonathan; Wevers, Thomas

    2017-12-01

    We investigate the capabilities of the ESA Gaia mission for detecting and character- izing short timescale variability, from tens of seconds to a dozen hours. We assess the efficiency of the variogram analysis, for both detecting short timescale variability and estimating the underlying characteristic timescales from Gaia photometry, through extensive light-curve simulations for various periodic and transient short timescale variable types. We show that, with this approach, we can detect fast periodic variabil- ity, with amplitudes down to a few millimagnitudes, as well as some M dwarf flares and supernovae explosions, with limited contamination from longer timescale variables or constant sources. Timescale estimates from the variogram give valuable informa- tion on the rapidity of the underlying variation, which could complement timescale estimates from other methods, like Fourier-based periodograms, and be reinvested in preparation of ground-based photometric follow-up of short timescale candidates evi- denced by Gaia. The next step will be to find new short timescale variable candidates from real Gaia data, and to further characterize them using all the Gaia information, including color and spectrum.

  12. The influence of the allometric scale on the relationship between running economy and biomechanical variables in distance runners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MP Tartaruga

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Studies have demonstrated the need for the use of parameters that diminish the effect of body mass, for intra and inter group comparison, in individuals with different masses in order to provide a different analysis on the behaviour of the relation between running economy (RE and biomechanical variables (BVs. The allometric scale is represented by a regression equation that indicates the behaviour of a physiological variable in relation to the variable mass (RE=a.xb, where x is body mass in (kg and the dimensionless coefficient a is characteristic of the species analysed, and the dimensionless exponent b determines the percentage of mass to be associated with the physiological variable. The influence of the allometric scale (b=-1; -0.75; -0.73; -0.67 on the relationship between RE and BVs - stride length (SL, relative stride length (RSL, stride rate (SR, stride time (ST, support time (SUPT and balance time (BALT - at 12 km.h-1, was analysed in nine elite runners. Factorial analysis and Pearson's Correlation Coefficient test (r with P<0.05 were used. A decrease in the explanation power of the RE was observed, with the use of the allometric exponent, due to the BVs, as well as a reduction of the correlation coefficients between SL versus RE, ST versus RE and SR versus RE. The BALT presented a higher correlation where b=-0.75. The RSL and SUPT presented non-significant correlations. The variables SL, ST, SR and BALT were the most effective predictors of the RE, Where: b=-1, the allometric scale was most efficient to predict the running performance.

  13. The Jack mackerel Trachurus murphyiand the environmental macro-scale variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Espino

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses information on various macro environmental variables available since 1876 for the Southeast Pacific and more recent data on Jack mackerel Trachurus murphyi (Nichols, 1920 landings and biomass in the Peruvian sea, relating them to probable areas of water masses equivalent to Cold Coastal Waters (CCW and Subtropical Surface Waters (SSW. It is concluded that the index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO presents expressions of variability that are consistent with those found for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI and that the detected changes in biomass of Jack mackerel T. murphyiin the Peruvian sea reflect changes in the availability of the fish stock associated with secular (SOI and decadal (PDO variability patterns. These fluctuations in stock availability impact fisheries in Ecuador, Peru and northern Chile, which show significant variations in their landings and would have given a biased picture of the state of abundance, leading to wrong diagnoses of the real situation of the exploited stocks. These patterns of variability would also affect the appearance of El Niño, making them start in the southern hemisphere autumn or spring depending on whether the current PDO is positive or negative. Periods of high (1876 – 1925 and 1976 – 2012 and low (1926 – 1975 variability are also identified in relation to the Euclidean distance of the variances of the SOI; and in relation to the PDO a distinction is made between warm (1925 – 1944 and 1975 – 1994, cold (1945 – 1974 and tempered or interface periods (1895 – 1924 and 1995 – 2012, the latter being explained by the interaction between periods of high variability.

  14. Fingers Phrase Music Differently: Trial-to-Trial Variability in Piano Scale Playing and Auditory Perception Reveal Motor Chunking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vugt, Floris Tijmen; Jabusch, Hans-Christian; Altenmüller, Eckart

    2012-01-01

    We investigated how musical phrasing and motor sequencing interact to yield timing patterns in the conservatory students' playing piano scales. We propose a novel analysis method that compared the measured note onsets to an objectively regular scale fitted to the data. Subsequently, we segment the timing variability into (i) systematic deviations from objective evenness that are perhaps residuals of expressive timing or of perceptual biases and (ii) non-systematic deviations that can be interpreted as motor execution errors, perhaps due to noise in the nervous system. The former, systematic deviations reveal that the two-octave scales are played as a single musical phrase. The latter, trial-to-trial variabilities reveal that pianists' timing was less consistent at the boundaries between the octaves, providing evidence that the octave is represented as a single motor sequence. These effects cannot be explained by low-level properties of the motor task such as the thumb passage and also did not show up in simulated scales with temporal jitter. Intriguingly, this instability in motor production around the octave boundary is mirrored by an impairment in the detection of timing deviations at those positions, suggesting that chunks overlap between perception and action. We conclude that the octave boundary instability in the scale playing motor program provides behavioral evidence that our brain chunks musical sequences into octave units that do not coincide with musical phrases. Our results indicate that trial-to-trial variability is a novel and meaningful indicator of this chunking. The procedure can readily be extended to a variety of tasks to help understand how movements are divided into units and what processing occurs at their boundaries.

  15. Fingers phrase music differently: trial-to-trial variability in piano scale playing and auditory perception reveal motor chunking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floris Tijmen Van Vugt

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We investigated how musical phrasing and motor sequencing interact to yield timing patterns in the conservatory students' playing piano scales. We propose a novel analysis method that compared the measured note onsets to an objectively regular scale fitted to the data. Subsequently, we segment the timing variability into (i systematic deviations from objective evenness that are perhaps residuals of expressive timing or of perceptual biases and (ii non-systematic deviations that can be interpreted as motor execution errors, perhaps due to noise in the nervous system. The former, systematic deviations, reveal that the two octave scales are played as a single musical phrase. The latter, trial-to-trial variabilities reveal that pianists' timing was less consistent at the boundaries between the octaves, providing evidence that the octave is represented as a single motor sequence. These effects cannot be explained by low-level properties of the motor task such as the thumb-passage and also did not show up in simulated scales with temporal jitter. Intriguingly, this instability in motor production around the octave boundary is mirrored by an impairment in the detection of timing deviations at those positions, suggesting that chunks overlap between perception and action. We conclude that the octave boundary instability in the scale playing motor program provides behavioural evidence that our brain chunks musical sequences into octave units that do not coincide with musical phrases. Our results indicate that trial-to-trial variability is a novel and meaningful indicator of this chunking. The procedure can readily be extended to a variety of tasks to help understand how movements are divided into units and what processing occurs at their boundaries.

  16. A Bioequivalence Approach for Generic Narrow Therapeutic Index Drugs: Evaluation of the Reference-Scaled Approach and Variability Comparison Criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Wenlei; Makhlouf, Fairouz; Schuirmann, Donald J; Zhang, Xinyuan; Zheng, Nan; Conner, Dale; Yu, Lawrence X; Lionberger, Robert

    2015-07-01

    Various health communities have expressed concerns regarding whether average bioequivalence (BE) limits (80.00-125.00%) for the 90% confidence interval of the test-to-reference geometric mean ratio are sufficient to ensure therapeutic equivalence between a generic narrow therapeutic index (NTI) drug and its reference listed drug (RLD). Simulations were conducted to investigate the impact of different BE approaches for NTI drugs on study power, including (1) direct tightening of average BE limits and (2) a scaled average BE approach where BE limits are tightened based on the RLD's within-subject variability. Addition of a variability comparison (using a one-tailed F test) increased the difficulty for generic NTIs more variable than their corresponding RLDs to demonstrate bioequivalence. Based on these results, the authors evaluate the fully replicated, 2-sequence, 2-treatment, 4-period crossover study design for NTI drugs where the test product demonstrates BE based on a scaled average bioequivalence criterion and a within-subject variability comparison criterion.

  17. Space-time variability of Indonesian rainfall at inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanto; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith

    2016-11-01

    We investigated the space-time variability of wet (Nov-Apr) and dry (May-Oct) season rainfall over Indonesia, using monthly gridded rainfall data from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit covering the period 1901-2012. Three complimentary techniques were employed—(1) principal component analysis to identify the dominant modes of variability, (2) wavelet spectral analysis to identify the spectral characteristics of the leading modes and their coherence with large scale climate variables and (3) Bayesian Dynamical Linear Model (BDLM) to quantify the temporal variability of the association between rainfall modes and climate variables. In the dry season when the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is to the north of the equator the leading two principal components (PCs) explain close to 50 % of the rainfall. In the wet season the ITCZ moves to the south and the leading PCs explain close to 30 % of the variance. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the driver of the leading modes of rainfall variability during both seasons. We find asymmetry in the teleconnections of ENSO to high and low rainfall years in the dry season. Furthermore, ENSO and the leading PCs of rainfall have spectral coherence in the inter-annual band (2-8 years) over the entire period of record and in the multi-decadal (8-16 years) band in post-1980 years. In addition, during the 1950-1980 period the second mode of variability in both seasons has a strong relationship with Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The association between ENSO and the leading mode of Indonesian rainfall has strengthened in recent decades, more so during dry season. These inter-annual and multi-decadal variability of Indonesian rainfall modulated by Pacific climate drivers has implications for rainfall and hydrologic predictability important for water resources management.

  18. Health impact assessment of traffic-related air pollution at the urban project scale: influence of variability and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chart-Asa, Chidsanuphong; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2015-02-15

    This paper develops and then demonstrates a new approach for quantifying health impacts of traffic-related particulate matter air pollution at the urban project scale that includes variability and uncertainty in the analysis. We focus on primary particulate matter having a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). The new approach accounts for variability in vehicle emissions due to temperature, road grade, and traffic behavior variability; seasonal variability in concentration-response coefficients; demographic variability at a fine spatial scale; uncertainty in air quality model accuracy; and uncertainty in concentration-response coefficients. We demonstrate the approach for a case study roadway corridor with a population of 16,000, where a new extension of the University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill campus is slated for construction. The results indicate that at this case study site, health impact estimates increased by factors of 4-9, depending on the health impact considered, compared to using a conventional health impact assessment approach that overlooks these variability and uncertainty sources. In addition, we demonstrate how the method can be used to assess health disparities. For example, in the case study corridor, our method demonstrates the existence of statistically significant racial disparities in exposure to traffic-related PM2.5 under present-day traffic conditions: the correlation between percent black and annual attributable deaths in each census block is 0.37 (t(114)=4.2, phealth risks (annual risk 6×10(-10); lifetime risk 4×10(-8)), compared to if the campus is not built. Nonetheless, the approach we illustrate could be useful for improving the quality of information to support decision-making for other urban development projects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Small Scale Spatial Variability of Apparent Electrical Conductivity within a Paddy Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Aimrun

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Quick variability description is an important component for zone management practices. Precision farming requires topping up of only the nutrients that are lacking in the soil to attain the highest yield with the least input. The apparent soil electrical conductivity (ECa sensor is a useful tool in mapping to identify areas of contrasting soil properties. In nonsaline soils, ECa is a substitute measurement for soil texture. It is directly related to both water holding capacity and Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC, which are key ingredients of productivity. This sensor measures the ECa across a field quickly and gives detailed soil features (one-second interval with few operators. Hence, a dense sampling is possible and therefore a high-resolution ECa map can be produced. This study aims to characterize the variability of soil ECa within a Malaysian paddy field with respect to the spatial and seasonal variability. The study was conducted at Block C, Sawah Sempadan, Selangor, Malaysia, for three continuous seasons. Soil ECa was collected after harvesting period. The results showed that deep ECa visualized the pattern of the former river routes clearly as continuous lines (about 45 m width at the northern and central regions of the study area. This exploration has shown different maps with higher contrast as compared to the existing soil series map for the study area. Seasonal variability test showed that the ECa that was acquired during rainy season (collected after harvest in December to January has the highest value as compared to another season.

  20. Analysis of Large Scale Spatial Variability of Soil Moisture Using a Geostatistical Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-25

    consists of a heating element and thermocouple emplaced in epoxy in a hypodermic needle , which is encased in a porous ceramic matrix. This sensor is...1/A), where A is the decorrelation length. Kriging is an interpolation technique based on the theory of regionalized variables developed by

  1. Historical range of variability in live and dead wood biomass: a regional-scale simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etsuko Nonaka; Thomas A. Spies; Michael C. Wimberly; Janet L. Ohmann

    2007-01-01

    The historical range of variability (HRV) in landscape structure and composition created by natural disturbance can serve as a general guide for evaluating ecological conditions of managed landscapes. HRV approaches to evaluating landscapes have been based on age classes or developmental stages, which may obscure variation in live and dead stand structure. Developing...

  2. Using Derivative Estimates to Describe Intraindividual Variability at Multiple Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deboeck, Pascal R.; Montpetit, Mignon A.; Bergeman, C. S.; Boker, Steven M.

    2009-01-01

    The study of intraindividual variability is central to the study of individuals in psychology. Previous research has related the variance observed in repeated measurements (time series) of individuals to traitlike measures that are logically related. Intraindividual measures, such as intraindividual standard deviation or the coefficient of…

  3. HPC Aspects of Variable-Resolution Global Climate Modeling using a Multi-scale Convection Parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    High performance computing (HPC) requirements for the new generation variable grid resolution (VGR) global climate models differ from that of traditional global models. A VGR global model with 15 km grids over the CONUS stretching to 60 km grids elsewhere will have about ~2.5 tim...

  4. Monitoring in a complex world — seeking slow variables, a scaled ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Recent developments from complex systems theorists provide new insights into our understanding and, hence, monitoring of rangelands. Designing monitoring systems around the slow variables should lead to the generation of information that could greatly improve decision making in an adaptive management context.

  5. Space-time soil moisture variability for two different land use types: analysis at the plot scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuecco, Giulia; Borga, Marco; Penna, Daniele; Canone, Davide; Ferraris, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    Understanding space-time soil moisture variability at various scales is a key issue in hydrological research. At the plot scale soil moisture variability is expected to be explained by physical factors such as soil hydraulic properties, local topography and vegetation cover. This study aims to: i) characterize the spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture at the plot scale at two soil depths and for two different types of land use (meadow and vineyard); ii) investigate the role of vegetation cover on the seasonal variability of soil moisture; iii) assess the capability of a dynamic model to explain soil moisture variability and the control exerted by land use. The work is based on soil moisture data collected on a plot (about 200 m2) in Grugliasco (Po River basin, Northern Italy) by means of Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements. The plot is divided into two subplots: one covered by grapevine plants, the other covered homogeneously by grass. The soil is sandy, the slope is about 1%, and there is a buffer grass area about 20 m wide around the measurement field. The characteristics of the site allow to isolate the contribution of soil hydraulic properties and land use to space-time soil moisture variability. We used the data of 40 probes distributed in the two subplots, vertically inserted into the soil at 0-30 cm and 0-60 cm depths. Precipitation and temperature are recorded continuously on site. Statistics were computed based on soil moisture measurements collected continuously at daily time step over three years (2006-2008). Results show that soil moisture spatial patterns at the two sampling depths are highly correlated for both land uses. Higher values of mean soil moisture at 0-60 cm depth with respect to 0-30 cm for both types of land use likely reflect the evaporation processes affecting more the surface layer. Spatial mean soil moisture is always higher in the vineyard than in the meadow (especially at 0-30 cm depth), implying the influence of

  6. Can we quantify the variability of soil moisture across scales using Electromagnetic Induction ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinet, Jérémy; von Hebel, Christian; van der Kruk, Jan; Govers, Gerard; Vanderborght, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Soil moisture is a key variable in many natural processes. Therefore, technological and methodological advancements are of primary importance to provide accurate measurements of spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture. In that context, ElectroMagnetic Induction (EMI) instruments are often cited as a hydrogeophysical method with a large potential, through the measurement of the soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa). To our knowledge, no studies have evaluated the potential of EMI to characterize variability of soil moisture on both agricultural and forested land covers in a (sub-) tropical environment. These differences in land use could be critical as differences in temperature, transpiration and root water uptake can have significant effect, notably on the electrical conductivity of the pore water. In this study, we used an EMI instrument to carry out a first assessment of the impact of deforestation and agriculture on soil moisture in a subtropical region in the south of Brazil. We selected slopes of different topographies (gentle vs. steep) and contrasting land uses (natural forest vs. agriculture) within two nearby catchments. At selected locations on the slopes, we measured simultaneously ECa using EMI and a depth-weighted average of the soil moisture using TDR probes installed within soil pits. We found that the temporal variability of the soil moisture could not be measured accurately with EMI, probably because of important temporal variations of the pore water electrical conductivity and the relatively small temporal variations in soil moisture content. However, we found that its spatial variability could be effectively quantified using a non-linear relationship, for both intra- and inter-slopes variations. Within slopes, the ECa could explained between 67 and 90% of the variability of the soil moisture, while a single non-linear model for all the slopes could explain 55% of the soil moisture variability. We eventually showed that combining

  7. Fossil fleet transition with fuel changes and large scale variable renewable integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James, Revis [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Hesler, Stephen [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States); Bistline, John [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA (United States)

    2015-03-31

    Variability in demand as seen by grid-connected dispatchable generators can increase due to factors such as greater production from variable generation assets (for example, wind and solar), increased reliance on demand response or customer-driven automation, and aggregation of loads. This variability results a need for these generators to operate in a range of different modes, collectively referred to as “flexible operations.” This study is designed to inform power companies, researchers, and policymakers of the scope and trends in increasing levels of flexible operations as well as reliability challenges and impacts for dispatchable assets. Background Because there is rarely a direct monetization of the value of operational flexibility, the decision to provide such flexibility is typically dependent on unit- and region-specific decisions made by asset owners. It is very likely that much greater and more widespread flexible operations capabilities will be needed due to increased variability in demand seen by grid-connected generators, uncertainty regarding investment in new units to provide adequate operational flexibility, and the retirement of older, uncontrolled sub-critical pulverized coal units. Objective To enhance understanding of the technical challenges and operational impacts associated with dispatchable assets needed to increase operational flexibility and support variable demand. Approach The study approach consists of three elements: a literature review of relevant prior studies, analysis of detailed scenarios for evolution of the future fleet over the next 35 years, and engineering assessment of the degree and scope of technical challenges associated with transformation to the future fleet. The study approach integrated two key elements rarely brought together in a single analysis—1) long-term capacity planning, which enables modeling of unit retirements and new asset investments, and 2) unit commitment analysis, which permits examination of

  8. A Local Controller for Discrete-Time Large-Scale System by Using Integral Variable Structure Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Chai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A new local controller for discrete-time integral variable structure control of a large-scale system with matched and unmatched uncertainty is presented. The local controller is able to bring the large-scale system into stability by using only the states feedback from individual subsystem itself. A new theorem is established and proved that the controller is able to handle the effect of interconnection for the large-scale system with matched and unmatched uncertainty, and the system stability is ensured. The controller is able to control the system to achieve the quasi-sliding surface and remains on it. The results showed a fast convergence to the desired value and the attenuation of disturbance is achieved.

  9. The effect of atmospheric variability at intra-seasonal time scale on the SST of the Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simionato, Claudia; Clara, Moira Luz; Jaureguizar, Andrés

    2017-04-01

    The Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf is characterized by large SST variability which origin remains unknown. In this work, we use blended SST data provided by NOAA CoastWatch Program, which combine the information coming from infrared and microwave sensors to provide daily images of an intermediate spatial resolution (11 km) with a noise floor of less than 0.2 °C. The data base starts at the middle of 2002, when an increase in signal variance is observed due to the fact that the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer became available and as a consequence to its near all-weather coverage. Several years of observations are thus available, and even though the temporal and spatial resolution of these data is intermediate, they are reasonable for observing and characterizing the most significant patterns of SST variability in the (atmospheric) synoptic to intra-seasonal time scales, so as to help on understanding the physical processes which occur in the area and their forcing mechanisms. As we hypothesize that most of the variability in those time scales is wind forced, the study is complemented with the use of atmospheric observations -coming from remote sensing and reanalysis-. To perform the analysis, the long-term trend, inter-annual and seasonal variability are subtracted to the SST data to obtain the signal on intra-seasonal time scales. Then, Principal Components (EOF) analysis is applied to the data and composites of SST and several meteorological variables (wind, sea level pressure, air temperature, OLR, etc.) are computed for the days when the leading modes are active. It is found that the first three modes account for more than 70% of the variance. Modes 1 and 2 seem to be related to atmospheric waves generated in the tropical Pacific. Those waves, through atmospheric teleconnections, affect the SST on the southwestern South Atlantic Continental Shelf very rapidly. The oceanic anomalies exceed 0.7°C and are quite persistent. Mode 2 seems to be

  10. Sensitivity of extreme precipitation to temperature: the variability of scaling factors from a regional to local perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Kirchengast, G.

    2017-09-01

    Potential increases in extreme rainfall induced hazards in a warming climate have motivated studies to link precipitation intensities to temperature. Increases exceeding the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate of 6-7%/°C-1 are seen in short-duration, convective, high-percentile rainfall at mid latitudes, but the rates of change cease or revert at regionally variable threshold temperatures due to moisture limitations. It is unclear, however, what these findings mean in term of the actual risk of extreme precipitation on a regional to local scale. When conditioning precipitation intensities on local temperatures, key influences on the scaling relationship such as from the annual cycle and regional weather patterns need better understanding. Here we analyze these influences, using sub-hourly to daily precipitation data from a dense network of 189 stations in south-eastern Austria. We find that the temperature sensitivities in the mountainous western region are lower than in the eastern lowlands. This is due to the different weather patterns that cause extreme precipitation in these regions. Sub-hourly and hourly intensities intensify at super-CC and CC-rates, respectively, up to temperatures of about 17 °C. However, we also find that, because of the regional and seasonal variability of the precipitation intensities, a smaller scaling factor can imply a larger absolute change in intensity. Our insights underline that temperature precipitation scaling requires careful interpretation of the intent and setting of the study. When this is considered, conditional scaling factors can help to better understand which influences control the intensification of rainfall with temperature on a regional scale.

  11. Fine-scale spatial variability of different stages of pelagic fish eggs ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stage-dependent spatial distributions of anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus, sardine Sardinops sagax and round herring Etrumeus whiteheadi eggs over the western Agulhas Bank South Africa were examined from samples collected at a fine-scale (1.8 km) resolution using a continuous underway fish egg sampler (CUFES).

  12. Antarctic climate variability at regional and continental scale over the last 2000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenni, B.; Curran, M.; Abram, N.; Orsi, A. J.; Goursaud, S.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Goosse, H.; Neukom, R.

    2016-12-01

    Paleotemperature reconstructions from Antarctica mainly rely on water stable isotope records from ice cores. The key factor controlling this proxy has been mainly related to temperature variations; however, this is not always straight forward and other processes acting on different spatial and temporal scales may influence the calibration between water stable isotopes and temperature. These processes can include precipitation-weighting of recorded air temperature, post-depositional movement and loss of snow, and ice flow and elevation effects. Early efforts to reconstruct the continental-scale temperature history of Antarctica over the past 2000 years indicated that at the continent-scale Antarctica is the only land region where the long-term cooling trend of the last 2000 years has not yet been reversed by recent significant warming. However, this Antarctic temperature reconstruction has large uncertainties and masks important regional-scale features of Antarctica's climate evolution over the last 2000 years. Here, we present a greatly expanded paleoclimate database including ice core isotope records over 7 distinct climatic regions: the Antarctic Peninsula, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the East Antarctic Plateau, and four coastal domains of East Antarctica. New methodologies are applied to obtain the new temperature reconstructions of the Antarctica2k working group in the framework of the PAGES 2k initiative.

  13. Monitoring in a complex world — seeking slow variables, a scaled ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Does theory really guide us in developing useful monitoring systems when faced with the real world of complex trade-offs among different users, different ecosystem services and a hierarchy of different scales? How can practice improve theory? Keywords: adaptive management, complex adaptive systems, learning, mental ...

  14. Assessment of the methods for determining net radiation at different time-scales of meteorological variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ni An

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available When modeling the soil/atmosphere interaction, it is of paramount importance to determine the net radiation flux. There are two common calculation methods for this purpose. Method 1 relies on use of air temperature, while Method 2 relies on use of both air and soil temperatures. Nowadays, there has been no consensus on the application of these two methods. In this study, the half-hourly data of solar radiation recorded at an experimental embankment are used to calculate the net radiation and long-wave radiation at different time-scales (half-hourly, hourly, and daily using the two methods. The results show that, compared with Method 2 which has been widely adopted in agronomical, geotechnical and geo-environmental applications, Method 1 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at shorter time-scale. Moreover, in case of longer time-scale, daily for instance, less variations of net radiation and long-wave radiation are obtained, suggesting that no detailed soil temperature variations can be obtained. In other words, shorter time-scales are preferred in determining net radiation flux.

  15. Regional scale spatio-temporal variability of soil moisture and its relationship with meteorological factors over the Korean peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Eunsang; Choi, Minha

    2014-08-01

    An understanding soil moisture spatio-temporal variability is essential for hydrological and meteorological research. This work aims at evaluating the spatio-temporal variability of near surface soil moisture and assessing dominant meteorological factors that influence spatial variability over the Korean peninsula from May 1 to September 29, 2011. The results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for goodness of fit showed that all applied distributions (normal, log-normal and generalized extreme value: GEV) were appropriate for the datasets and the GEV distribution described best spatial soil moisture patterns. The relationship between the standard deviation and coefficient of variation (CV) of soil moisture with mean soil moisture contents showed an upper convex shape and an exponentially negative pattern, respectively. Skewness exhibited a decreasing pattern with increasing mean soil moisture contents and kurtosis exhibited the U-shaped relationship. In this regional scale (99,720 km2), we found that precipitation indicated temporally stable features through an ANOVA test considering the meteorological (i.e. precipitation, insolation, air temperature, ground temperature and wind speed) and physical (i.e. soil texture, elevation, topography, and land use) factors. Spatial variability of soil moisture affected by the meteorological forcing is shown as result of the relationship between the meteorological factors (precipitation, insolation, air temperature and ground temperature) and the standard deviation of relative difference of soil moisture contents (SDRDt) which implied the spatial variability of soil moisture. The SDRDt showed a positive relationship with the daily mean precipitation, while a negative relationship with insolation, air temperature and ground temperature. The variation of spatial soil moisture pattern is more sensitive to change in ground temperature rather than air temperature changes. Therefore, spatial variability of soil moisture is greatly affected

  16. Small-scale spatial variability of soil microbial community composition and functional diversity in a mixed forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiufeng; Tian, Jing; Yu, Guirui

    2014-05-01

    Patterns in the spatial distribution of organisms provide important information about mechanisms that regulate the diversity and complexity of soil ecosystems. Therefore, information on spatial distribution of microbial community composition and functional diversity is urgently necessary. The spatial variability on a 26×36 m plot and vertical distribution (0-10 cm and 10-20 cm) of soil microbial community composition and functional diversity were studied in a natural broad-leaved Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) mixed forest soil in Changbai Mountain. The phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) pattern was used to characterize the soil microbial community composition and was compared with the community substrate utilization pattern using Biolog. Bacterial biomass dominated and showed higher variability than fungal biomass at all scales examined. The microbial biomass decreased with soil depths increased and showed less variability in lower 10-20 cm soil layer. The Shannon-Weaver index value for microbial functional diversity showed higher variability in upper 0-10 cm than lower 10-20 cm soil layer. Carbohydrates, carboxylic acids, polymers and amino acids are the main carbon sources possessing higher utilization efficiency or utilization intensity. At the same time, the four carbon source types contributed to the differentiation of soil microbial communities. This study suggests the higher diversity and complexity for this mix forest ecosystem. To determine the driving factors that affect this spatial variability of microorganism is the next step for our study.

  17. Seasonal and diurnal variability of N{sub 2}O emissions from a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daelman, Matthijs R.J., E-mail: m.r.j.daelman@tudelft.nl [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Voorthuizen, Ellen M. van [Royal HaskoningDHV, P.O. Box 151, 6500AD Nijmegen (Netherlands); Dongen, Udo G.J.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Volcke, Eveline I.P. [Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Loosdrecht, Mark C.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands)

    2015-12-01

    During nitrogen removal in conventional activated sludge processes, nitrous oxide can be emitted. With a global warming potential of 298 CO{sub 2}-equivalents it is an important greenhouse gas that affects the sustainability of wastewater treatment. The present study reports nitrous oxide emission data from a 16 month monitoring campaign on a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment. The emission demonstrated a pronounced diurnal and seasonal variability. This variability was compared with the variability of a number of process variables that are commonly available on a municipal wastewater treatment plant. On a seasonal timescale, the occurrence of peaks in the nitrite concentration correlated strongly with the emission. The diurnal trend of the emission coincided with the diurnal trend of the nitrite and nitrate concentrations in the tank, suggesting that suboptimal oxygen concentrations may induce the production of nitrous oxide during both nitrification and denitrification. This study documents an unprecedented dataset that could serve as a reference for further research. - Highlights: • Unique dataset of long-term nitrous oxide emission from activated sludge tanks • Emission exhibited pronounced diurnal variability, superimposed on seasonal trend • Seasonal nitrous oxide emission trend correlated with daily nitrite peaks • Emission’s diurnal trend suggests suboptimal oxygen concentrations as cause.

  18. Spatial variability of soil aggregate stability at the scale of an agricultural region in Tunisia

    OpenAIRE

    Annabi, M.; Raclot, Damien; Bahri, H.; Bailly, J. S.; Gomez, Cécile; Le Bissonnais, Y.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; Soil aggregate stability is a key factor in soil resistance to water erosion, which is a threat to soils in a large part of northern Tunisia. The analysis of the spatial variability of soil aggregate stability provides both agronomic and environmentally useful information. However, extensive measurements of soil aggregate stability remain tedious and expensive. This study explores two different approaches as alternative to measurements of soil aggregate stability. One ...

  19. Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariotti, Annarita [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Rome (Italy); Dell' Aquila, Alessandro [Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Rome (Italy)

    2012-03-15

    We analyze decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region using observational datasets over the period 1850-2009 and a regional climate model simulation for the period 1960-2000, focusing in particular on the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons. Our results show that decadal variability associated with the winter and summer manifestations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO and SNAO respectively) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly contribute to decadal climate anomalies over the Mediterranean region during these seasons. Over 30% of decadal variance in DJF and JJA precipitation in parts of the Mediterranean region can be explained by NAO and SNAO variability respectively. During JJA, the AMO explains over 30% of regional surface air temperature anomalies and Mediterranean Sea surface temperature anomalies, with significant influence also in the transition seasons. In DJF, only Mediterranean SST still significantly correlates with the AMO while regional surface air temperature does not. Also, there is no significant NAO influence on decadal Mediterranean surface air temperature anomalies during this season. A simulation with the PROTHEUS regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model is utilized to investigate processes determining regional decadal changes during the 1960-2000 period, specifically the wetter and cooler 1971-1985 conditions versus the drier and warmer 1986-2000 conditions. The simulation successfully captures the essence of observed decadal changes. Model set-up suggests that AMO variability is transmitted to the Mediterranean/European region and the Mediterranean Sea via atmospheric processes. Regional feedbacks involving cloud cover and soil moisture changes also appear to contribute to observed changes. If confirmed, the linkage between Mediterranean temperatures and the AMO may imply a certain degree of regional decadal climate predictability. The AMO and other decadal influences outlined here should be

  20. Attenuation effect on seasonal basin-scale water storage changes from GRACE time-variable gravity

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, JL; Wilson, CR; Famiglietti, JS; Rodell, M.

    2007-01-01

    In order to effectively recover surface mass or geoid height changes from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) time-variable gravity models, spatial smoothing is required to minimize errors from noise. Spatial smoothing, such as Gaussian smoothing, not only reduces the noise but also attenuates the real signals. Here we investigate possible amplitude attenuations and phase changes of seasonal water storage variations in four drainage basins (Amazon, Mississippi, Ganges and Zamb...

  1. Large Scale Variability of Phytoplankton Blooms in the Arctic and Peripheral Seas: Relationships with Sea Ice, Temperature, Clouds, and Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Cota, Glenn F.

    2004-01-01

    Spatially detailed satellite data of mean color, sea ice concentration, surface temperature, clouds, and wind have been analyzed to quantify and study the large scale regional and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic and peripheral seas from 1998 to 2002. In the Arctic basin, phytoplankton chlorophyll displays a large symmetry with the Eastern Arctic having about fivefold higher concentrations than those of the Western Arctic. Large monthly and yearly variability is also observed in the peripheral seas with the largest blooms occurring in the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, and the Barents Sea during spring. There is large interannual and seasonal variability in biomass with average chlorophyll concentrations in 2002 and 2001 being higher than earlier years in spring and summer. The seasonality in the latitudinal distribution of blooms is also very different such that the North Atlantic is usually most expansive in spring while the North Pacific is more extensive in autumn. Environmental factors that influence phytoplankton growth were examined, and results show relatively high negative correlation with sea ice retreat and strong positive correlation with temperature in early spring. Plankton growth, as indicated by biomass accumulation, in the Arctic and subarctic increases up to a threshold surface temperature of about 276-277 degree K (3-4 degree C) beyond which the concentrations start to decrease suggesting an optimal temperature or nutrient depletion. The correlation with clouds is significant in some areas but negligible in other areas, while the correlations with wind speed and its components are generally weak. The effects of clouds and winds are less predictable with weekly climatologies because of unknown effects of averaging variable and intermittent physical forcing (e.g. over storm event scales with mixing and upwelling of nutrients) and the time scales of acclimation by the phytoplankton.

  2. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

    2017-09-01

    High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

  3. Psychometric properties of scales for the measurement of psychosocial variables associated with depression in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, J A; Lewinsohn, P M; Hops, H; Roberts, R E

    1993-12-01

    In preparation for a community-based study of depression in adolescence, several point studies were conducted with samples of adolescents. The purpose of these studies was to evaluate the reliability and association with depression of several instruments when used with older (14- to 18-year-old) adolescents. These instruments included measures of cognitions, body image, self-esteem, self-awareness, social interactions with peers and family, social support, micro- and macrostressful life events, anxiety and tension, positive affect, antisocial or oppositional behaviour, suicidal ideation, and vocabulary. The internal consistency reliability and stability of most of the instruments were satisfactory. In addition, most instruments were associated with a measure of depression, Radloff's Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale. Several of the scales were successfully abbreviated using techniques based on factor analysis and item analysis.

  4. A multiple-time-scale turbulence model based on variable partitioning of turbulent kinetic energy spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.-W.; Chen, C.-P.

    1988-01-01

    The paper presents a multiple-time-scale turbulence model of a single point closure and a simplified split-spectrum method. Consideration is given to a class of turbulent boundary layer flows and of separated and/or swirling elliptic turbulent flows. For the separated and/or swirling turbulent flows, the present turbulence model yielded significantly improved computational results over those obtained with the standard k-epsilon turbulence model.

  5. Small-scale variability of metals in soil and composite sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einax, Jürgen W; Kraft, Jörg

    2002-01-01

    Soil pollution data is also strongly scattering at small scale. Sampling of composite samples, therefore, is recommended for pollution assessment. Different statistical methods are available to provide information about the accuracy of the sampling process. Autocorrelation and variogram analysis can be applied to investigate spatial relationships. Analysis of variance is a useful method for homogeneity testing. The main source of the total measurement uncertainty is the uncertainty arising from sampling. The sample mass required for analysis can also be estimated using an analysis of variance. The number of increments to be taken for a composite sample can be estimated by means of simple statistical formulae. Analytical results of composite samples obtained from different fusion procedures of increments can be compared by means of multiple mean comparison. The applicability of statistical methods and their advantages are demonstrated for a case study investigating metals in soil at a very small spatial scale. The paper describes important statistical tools for the quantitative assessment of the sampling process. Detailed results clearly depend on the purpose of sampling, the spatial scale of the object under investigation and the specific case study, and have to be determined for each particular case.

  6. Assessing the Impact of Small-Scale Magnetic Morphology on Solar Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Courtney; Rast, Mark; Criscuoli, Serena

    2017-08-01

    Spectral solar irradiance (SSI), the radiant energy flux per wavelength of the Sun received at Earth, is an important driver of chemical reactions in the Earth’s atmosphere. Accurate measurements of SSI are therefore necessary as an input for global climate models. While models and observations of the spectrally-integrated total solar irradiance (TSI) variations agree within ˜ 95%, they can disagree on the sign and magnitude of the SSI variations. In this work, we examine the contribution of currently-unresolved small-scale magnetic structures to SSI variations in the photosphere. We examine the emergent spectra of two atmospheres with differing imposed-field conditions — one with a small-scale dynamo and the other with a predominantly vertical magnetic field — with similar mean field strengths at wavelengths spanning from visible to infrared. Comparing the radiative output at various viewing angles of pixels of equal vertical magnetic field strength between the two simulations, we find that the small-scale dynamo simulations produce higher radiative output than those in the predominantly vertical field simulation. This implies that the radiative output of a small magnetic structure depends on the magnetic morphology of the environment in which it is embedded, which is currently not included in SSI models. We deduce the effect on inferred irradiance by comparing the disk-integrated irradiance of these two atmospheres with standard 1D model atmospheres used in SSI modeling.

  7. Modeling the Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Variability on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahalan, Robert; Wen, Guoyong; Pilewskie, Peter; Harder, Jerald

    We apply two scenarios of external forcing, namely the SIM-based out-of-phase variations and the proxy-based in-phase variations, as input to a time-dependent radiative-convective model (RCM), and also to the GISS modelE GCM, to compute climate responses to solar variation on decadal time scale. We find that the maximum temperature response occurs in the upper stratosphere, while temperature response decreases downward to the surface for both scenarios, and both models. The upper stratospheric temperature peak-to-peak responses to out-of-phase solar forcing are 0.6 K in RCM and 0.9 K over the tropical region in GCM simulations, a factor of 5 times as large as responses to in-phase solar forcing. Stratospheric responses are in-phase with TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) variations. The modeled upper stratospheric temperature responses to the SORCE SIM observed SSI (Spectral Solar Irradiance) forcing are similar to the HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) observed 11-year temperature variations. Surface responses to the two SSI scenarios are small for both RCM and GCM studies, as compared to the stratospheric responses. Though solar irradiance variations on centennial time scale are not well known, the two sce-narios of reconstructed TSI time series (i.e., the one based on 11-year cycle with background [Lean 2000] and the other one from flux transport that has much less background component [Wang, Lean, and Sheeley, 2005]) provide potential range of variations of TSI on centennial time scale. We apply phase relations among different spectral irradiance bands both from SIM observation and proxy reconstructions to the two scenarios of historical TSI to derive the as-sociated historical SSI. The historical SSI is used to drive the RCM. The updated atmosphere and ocean mixed coupled RCM including diffusion to deep-ocean will provide the first order estimate of temperature response to SSI variation on centennial time scales. We anticipate the stratosphere, troposphere, and

  8. Large-scale environmental variables and transition to deep convection in cloud resolving model simulations: A vector representation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ruby Leung

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Cloud resolving model simulations and vector analysis are used to develop a quantitative method of assessing regional variations in the relationships between various large-scale environmental variables and the transition to deep convection. Results of the CRM simulations from three tropical regions are used to cluster environmental conditions under which transition to deep convection does and does not take place. Projections of the large-scale environmental variables on the difference between these two clusters are used to quantify the roles of these variables in the transition to deep convection. While the transition to deep convection is most sensitive to moisture and vertical velocity perturbations, the details of the profiles of the anomalies vary from region to region. In comparison, the transition to deep convection is found to be much less sensitive to temperature anomalies over all three regions. The vector formulation presented in this study represents a simple general framework for quantifying various aspects of how the transition to deep convection is sensitive to environmental conditions.

  9. Large-scale Environmental Variables and Transition to Deep Convection in Cloud Resolving Model Simulations: A Vector Representation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2012-11-01

    Cloud resolving model simulations and vector analysis are used to develop a quantitative method of assessing regional variations in the relationships between various large-scale environmental variables and the transition to deep convection. Results of the CRM simulations from three tropical regions are used to cluster environmental conditions under which transition to deep convection does and does not take place. Projections of the large-scale environmental variables on the difference between these two clusters are used to quantify the roles of these variables in the transition to deep convection. While the transition to deep convection is most sensitive to moisture and vertical velocity perturbations, the details of the profiles of the anomalies vary from region to region. In comparison, the transition to deep convection is found to be much less sensitive to temperature anomalies over all three regions. The vector formulation presented in this study represents a simple general framework for quantifying various aspects of how the transition to deep convection is sensitive to environmental conditions.

  10. Millennial-scale variability in Antarctic ice-sheet discharge during the last deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, M E; Clark, P U; Kuhn, G; Timmermann, A; Sprenk, D; Gladstone, R; Zhang, X; Lohmann, G; Menviel, L; Chikamoto, M O; Friedrich, T; Ohlwein, C

    2014-06-05

    Our understanding of the deglacial evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) following the Last Glacial Maximum (26,000-19,000 years ago) is based largely on a few well-dated but temporally and geographically restricted terrestrial and shallow-marine sequences. This sparseness limits our understanding of the dominant feedbacks between the AIS, Southern Hemisphere climate and global sea level. Marine records of iceberg-rafted debris (IBRD) provide a nearly continuous signal of ice-sheet dynamics and variability. IBRD records from the North Atlantic Ocean have been widely used to reconstruct variability in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, but comparable records from the Southern Ocean of the AIS are lacking because of the low resolution and large dating uncertainties in existing sediment cores. Here we present two well-dated, high-resolution IBRD records that capture a spatially integrated signal of AIS variability during the last deglaciation. We document eight events of increased iceberg flux from various parts of the AIS between 20,000 and 9,000 years ago, in marked contrast to previous scenarios which identified the main AIS retreat as occurring after meltwater pulse 1A and continuing into the late Holocene epoch. The highest IBRD flux occurred 14,600 years ago, providing the first direct evidence for an Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A. Climate model simulations with AIS freshwater forcing identify a positive feedback between poleward transport of Circumpolar Deep Water, subsurface warming and AIS melt, suggesting that small perturbations to the ice sheet can be substantially enhanced, providing a possible mechanism for rapid sea-level rise.

  11. Interannual variability of surface water extent at the global scale, 1993-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papa, F.; Prigent, C.; Aires, F.; Jimenez, C.; Rossow, W. B.; Matthews, E.

    2010-06-01

    Land surface waters play a primary role in the global water cycle and climate. As a consequence, there is a widespread demand for accurate and long-term quantitative observations of their distribution over the whole globe. This study presents the first global data set that quantifies the monthly distribution of surface water extent at ˜25 km sampling intervals over 12 years (1993-2004). These estimates, generated from complementary multiple-satellite observations, including passive (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and active (ERS scatterometer) microwaves along with visible and near-infrared imagery (advanced very high-resolution radiometer; AVHRR), were first developed over 1993-2000. The ERS encountered technical problems in 2001 and the processing scheme had to be adapted to extend the time series. Here we investigate and discuss the adjustments of the methodology, compare the various options, and show that the data set can be extended with good confidence beyond 2000, using ERS and AVHRR mean monthly climatologies. In addition to a large seasonal and interannual variability, the new results show a slight overall decrease in global inundated area between 1993 and 2004, representing an ˜5.7% reduction of the mean annual maximum in 12 years. The decrease is mainly observed in the tropics during the 1990s. Over inland water bodies and large river basins, we assess the variability of the surface water extent against related variables such as in situ river discharges, altimeter-derived and in situ river/floodplain water level heights, and precipitation estimates. This new 12 year data set of global surface water extent represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or methane modeling.

  12. Offshore Variability in Critical Weather Conditions in Large-Scale Wind Based Danish Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2013-01-01

    , the chances of losing several GW of wind power due to critical weather conditions in a very short time period could potentially jeopardize the whole system’s reliability and stability. Forecasting such events is not trivial and the results so far are not encouraging. When assessing the impact......Offshore wind power has a significant development potential, especially in North Europe. The geographical concentration of offshore wind power leads to increased variability and in the case of critical weather conditions it may lead to sudden and considerable loss of production. In this context...

  13. Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

    2017-10-01

    Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition (MTM-SVD). The contemporaneous associations are further examined using partial Granger causality to determine presence of causal linkage between any of the climate variables. This analysis reveals that only the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly has direct causal links with spring rainfall over Ethiopia and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Africa inspite of the strong secular covariance of spring rainfall, SST in parts of subtropical Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean and MSLP. High secular rainfall variance and statistically significant linear trend show consistently that there is a massive decline in spring rain over southern Ethiopia. This happened concurrently with significant buildup of MSLP over East Africa, northeastern Africa including parts of the Arabian Peninsula, some parts of central Africa and SST warming over all ocean basins with the exception of the ENSO regions. The east-west pressure gradient in response to the Indian Ocean warming led to secular southeasterly winds over the Arabian Sea, easterly over central Africa and equatorial Atlantic. These flows weakened climatological northeasterly flow over the Arabian Sea and southwesterly flow over equatorial Atlantic and Congo basins which supply moisture into the eastern Africa regions in spring. The secular divergent flow at low level is concurrent with upper level convergence due to the easterly secular anomalous flow. The mechanisms through which the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly modulates rainfall are further explored in the context of East Africa using a simplified atmospheric

  14. Radar subpixel-scale rainfall variability and uncertainty: lessons learned from observations of a dense rain-gauge network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Peleg

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Runoff and flash flood generation are very sensitive to rainfall's spatial and temporal variability. The increasing use of radar and satellite data in hydrological applications, due to the sparse distribution of rain gauges over most catchments worldwide, requires furthering our knowledge of the uncertainties of these data. In 2011, a new super-dense network of rain gauges containing 14 stations, each with two side-by-side gauges, was installed within a 4 km2 study area near Kibbutz Galed in northern Israel. This network was established for a detailed exploration of the uncertainties and errors regarding rainfall variability within a common pixel size of data obtained from remote sensing systems for timescales of 1 min to daily. In this paper, we present the analysis of the first year's record collected from this network and from the Shacham weather radar, located 63 km from the study area. The gauge–rainfall spatial correlation and uncertainty were examined along with the estimated radar error. The nugget parameter of the inter-gauge rainfall correlations was high (0.92 on the 1 min scale and increased as the timescale increased. The variance reduction factor (VRF, representing the uncertainty from averaging a number of rain stations per pixel, ranged from 1.6% for the 1 min timescale to 0.07% for the daily scale. It was also found that at least three rain stations are needed to adequately represent the rainfall (VRF < 5% on a typical radar pixel scale. The difference between radar and rain gauge rainfall was mainly attributed to radar estimation errors, while the gauge sampling error contributed up to 20% to the total difference. The ratio of radar rainfall to gauge-areal-averaged rainfall, expressed by the error distribution scatter parameter, decreased from 5.27 dB for 3 min timescale to 3.21 dB for the daily scale. The analysis of the radar errors and uncertainties suggest that a temporal scale of at least 10 min should be used for

  15. Historical variables of seismic effects: economic levels, demographic scales and building techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ferrari

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available During the analysis of the historical seismicity of Italy, territorial and social elements emerged that in the long term have strongly influenced the effects of the earthquakes. These elements are here presented as historical variables of the degree of intensity. The Italian context is characterised by a long and continuous history of housing, with profound historical and economic changes. The effects of the earthquakes are influenced by population density, the verticalism of the buildings - from the thirteenth century - and the building techniques. The latter have always been highly diversified, not only in the various historical periods, but also within the same time-span, on the same territory, because of the strong geographic differences which characterise the Italian area (coasts, mountains, plains, etc.. This contribution provides a synthetic assessment of these variables in relation to the seismic effects described in the historical sources. The authors expect to be able to better calibrate in future the evaluation of the seismic effects in relation to building characteristics.

  16. Driving factors of small-scale variability in a savanna plant population after a fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodonov, Pavel; Xavier, Rafael de Oliveira; Tiberio, Fernanda Cristina dos Santos; Lucena, Isabela Codolo de; Zanelli, Carolina Brandão; Silva Matos, Dalva Maria da

    2014-04-01

    The severity of fire impacts on fire-prone vegetation is often spatially heterogeneous, and may lead to small-scale patchiness in the structure of plant populations by affecting mortality, topkill, and reproduction. This patchiness, however, is not usually taken into account in fire ecology studies. We show that a dry-season fire may result in small-scale patchiness in the population structure of the common shrub Miconia albicans, mostly by differential topkill and resprouting. We related fire severity to population structure parameters of the study species and assessed the effects of fire on its soil seed bank. Basal area of non-woody live stems and of dead stems increased with fire severity, whereas that of woody live stems decreased, indicating topkill and resprouting. However, there was no relationship between fire severity and the total number of live or dead plants, showing that mortality in the fire was low. We found very few seedlings, indicating that resprouting, not germination from the soil seed bank, is the main recovery strategy of this species. The fire also affected the soil seed bank, as there were fewer seedlings emerging from soil collected in burned patches. Although this study was performed with a single species, it is likely that other species, especially those with basal resprouting, will show similar patterns of post-fire patchiness in population structure. This patchiness, in turn, may affect the spatial distribution of future fires, and should be taken into account in studies of fire ecology.

  17. Direct Numerical Simulations of Small-Scale Gravity Wave Instability Dynamics in Variable Stratification and Shear

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mixa, T.; Fritts, D. C.; Laughman, B.; Wang, L.; Kantha, L. H.

    2015-12-01

    Multiple observations provide compelling evidence that gravity wave dissipation events often occur in multi-scale environments having highly-structured wind and stability profiles extending from the stable boundary layer into the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Such events tend to be highly localized and thus yield local energy and momentum deposition and efficient secondary gravity wave generation expected to have strong influences at higher altitudes [e.g., Fritts et al., 2013; Baumgarten and Fritts, 2014]. Lidars, radars, and airglow imagers typically cannot achieve the spatial resolution needed to fully quantify these small-scale instability dynamics. Hence, we employ high-resolution modeling to explore these dynamics in representative environments. Specifically, we describe numerical studies of gravity wave packets impinging on a sheet of high stratification and shear and the resulting instabilities and impacts on the gravity wave amplitude and momentum flux for various flow and gravity wave parameters. References: Baumgarten, Gerd, and David C. Fritts (2014). Quantifying Kelvin-Helmholtz instability dynamics observed in noctilucent clouds: 1. Methods and observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119.15, 9324-9337. Fritts, D. C., Wang, L., & Werne, J. A. (2013). Gravity wave-fine structure interactions. Part I: Influences of fine structure form and orientation on flow evolution and instability. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70(12), 3710-3734.

  18. Effect of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the variability of the Arctic Ocean freshwater export

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jahn, Alexandra; Mysak, Lawrence A. [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montreal, QC (Canada); Tremblay, Bruno [McGill University, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Montreal, QC (Canada); Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Newton, Robert [Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Freshwater (FW) leaves the Arctic Ocean through sea-ice export and the outflow of low-salinity upper ocean water. Whereas the variability of the sea-ice export is known to be mainly caused by changes in the local wind and the thickness of the exported sea ice, the mechanisms that regulate the variability of the liquid FW export are still under investigation. To better understand these mechanisms, we present an analysis of the variability of the liquid FW export from the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-2007, using a simulation from an energy and mass conserving global ocean-sea ice model, coupled to an Energy Moisture Balance Model of the atmosphere, and forced with daily winds from the NCEP reanalysis. Our results show that the simulated liquid FW exports through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and the Fram Strait lag changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Arctic by 1 and 6 years, respectively. The variability of the liquid FW exports is caused by changes in the cyclonicity of the atmospheric forcing, which cause a FW redistribution in the Arctic through changes in Ekman transport in the Beaufort Gyre. This in turn causes changes in the sea surface height (SSH) and salinity upstream of the CAA and Fram Strait, which affect the velocity and salinity of the outflow. The SSH changes induced by the large-scale atmospheric circulation are found to explain a large part of the variance of the liquid FW export, while the local wind plays a much smaller role. We also show that during periods of increased liquid FW export from the Arctic, the strength of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced and the ocean heat transport into the Arctic is increased. These results are particularly relevant in the context of global warming, as climate simulations predict an increase in the liquid FW export from the Arctic during the twenty-first century. (orig.)

  19. Coastal fish indicators response to natural and anthropogenic drivers-variability at temporal and different spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergström, L.; Bergström, U.; Olsson, J.; Carstensen, J.

    2016-12-01

    Ecological indicators are increasingly used in marine and freshwater management but only few are developed towards full operationalization with known patterns of variability and documented responses to natural and anthropogenic environmental drivers. Here, we evaluate potential sources of indicator variability at two different spatial scales in three coastal fish-based indicators of environmental status in the Baltic Sea; abundance of cyprinids, abundance of perch and the proportion of larger perch. The study was performed on a data set covering 41 monitoring areas subject to different levels of anthropogenic impact, at a latitudinal range of 56-66°N and a salinity range of 2-8. Interannual variation was clearly minor relative to spatial variation. Small-scale spatial variation was related to water depth, wave exposure and water temperature. The remaining variation was assessed in relation to differences in natural and anthropogenic drivers between monitoring areas. Cyprinids showed a clear inverse relationship to water transparency, which was used as a proxy for eutrophication, indicating increased abundances in nutrient enriched areas. None of the indicators showed an expected negative relationship to the level of coastal commercial fisheries catches. Rather, a positive relationship for Perch suggested that the coastal fisheries were concentrated to areas with strong perch populations in the studied areas. The effect of salinity and climate (temperature during the growth season) among monitoring areas were small. The results emphasize the importance of assigning area-specific boundary levels to define good environmental status in the coastal fish indicators, in order to account for natural sources of variability. Further, although long-term monitoring in reference areas is crucial for obtaining a historical baseline, our results suggest that the status assessment of coastal fish would generally gain precision by increasingly including spatially based assessments

  20. Exploration and confirmation of the latent variable structure of the Jefferson scale of empathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaNoue, Marianna

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: To reaffirm the underlying components of the JSE by using exploratory factor analysis (EFA), and to confirm its latent variable structure by using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Methods Research participants included 2,612 medical students who entered Jefferson Medical College between 2002 and 2012. This sample was divided into two groups: Matriculants between 2002 and 2007 (n=1,380) and between 2008 and 2012 (n=1,232). Data for 2002-2007 matriculants were subjected to EFA (principal component factor extraction), and data for matriculants of 2008-2012 were used for CFA (structural equation modeling, and root mean square error for approximation). Results The EFA resulted in three factors: “perspective-taking,” “compassionate care” and “walking in patient’s shoes” replicating the 3-factor model reported in most of the previous studies. The CFA showed that the 3-factor model was an acceptable fit, thus confirming the latent variable structure emerged in the EFA. Corrected item-total score correlations for the total sample were all positive and statistically significant, ranging from 0.13 to 0.61 with a median of 0.44 (p<0.01). The item discrimination effect size indices (contrasting item mean scores for the top-third versus bottom-third JSE scorers) ranged from 0.50 to 1.4 indicating that the differences in item mean scores between top and bottom scorers on the JSE were of practical importance. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of the JSE for the total sample was 0.80, ranging from 0.75 to 0.84 for matriculatnts of different years. Conclusions Findings provided further support for underlying constructs of the JSE, adding to its credibility. PMID:25341215

  1. Local-scale spatial modelling for interpolating climatic temperature variables to predict agricultural plant suitability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Mathew A.; Hall, Andrew; Kidd, Darren; Minansy, Budiman

    2016-05-01

    Assessment of local spatial climatic variability is important in the planning of planting locations for horticultural crops. This study investigated three regression-based calibration methods (i.e. traditional versus two optimized methods) to relate short-term 12-month data series from 170 temperature loggers and 4 weather station sites with data series from nearby long-term Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate stations. The techniques trialled to interpolate climatic temperature variables, such as frost risk, growing degree days (GDDs) and chill hours, were regression kriging (RK), regression trees (RTs) and random forests (RFs). All three calibration methods produced accurate results, with the RK-based calibration method delivering the most accurate validation measures: coefficients of determination ( R 2) of 0.92, 0.97 and 0.95 and root-mean-square errors of 1.30, 0.80 and 1.31 °C, for daily minimum, daily maximum and hourly temperatures, respectively. Compared with the traditional method of calibration using direct linear regression between short-term and long-term stations, the RK-based calibration method improved R 2 and reduced root-mean-square error (RMSE) by at least 5 % and 0.47 °C for daily minimum temperature, 1 % and 0.23 °C for daily maximum temperature and 3 % and 0.33 °C for hourly temperature. Spatial modelling indicated insignificant differences between the interpolation methods, with the RK technique tending to be the slightly better method due to the high degree of spatial autocorrelation between logger sites.

  2. Spatial heterogeneity in ecologically important climate variables at coarse and fine scales in a high-snow mountain landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Ettinger, Ailene K; Lundquist, Jessica D; Raleigh, Mark S; Hille Ris Lambers, Janneke

    2013-01-01

    Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature) at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m), but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km). Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change.

  3. Spatial heterogeneity in ecologically important climate variables at coarse and fine scales in a high-snow mountain landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin R Ford

    Full Text Available Climate plays an important role in determining the geographic ranges of species. With rapid climate change expected in the coming decades, ecologists have predicted that species ranges will shift large distances in elevation and latitude. However, most range shift assessments are based on coarse-scale climate models that ignore fine-scale heterogeneity and could fail to capture important range shift dynamics. Moreover, if climate varies dramatically over short distances, some populations of certain species may only need to migrate tens of meters between microhabitats to track their climate as opposed to hundreds of meters upward or hundreds of kilometers poleward. To address these issues, we measured climate variables that are likely important determinants of plant species distributions and abundances (snow disappearance date and soil temperature at coarse and fine scales at Mount Rainier National Park in Washington State, USA. Coarse-scale differences across the landscape such as large changes in elevation had expected effects on climatic variables, with later snow disappearance dates and lower temperatures at higher elevations. However, locations separated by small distances (∼20 m, but differing by vegetation structure or topographic position, often experienced differences in snow disappearance date and soil temperature as great as locations separated by large distances (>1 km. Tree canopy gaps and topographic depressions experienced later snow disappearance dates than corresponding locations under intact canopy and on ridges. Additionally, locations under vegetation and on topographic ridges experienced lower maximum and higher minimum soil temperatures. The large differences in climate we observed over small distances will likely lead to complex range shift dynamics and could buffer species from the negative effects of climate change.

  4. Implications of atmospheric conditions for analysis of surface temperature variability derived from landscape-scale thermography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerle, Albin; Meier, Fred; Heinl, Michael; Egger, Angelika; Leitinger, Georg

    2017-04-01

    Thermal infrared (TIR) cameras perfectly bridge the gap between (i) on-site measurements of land surface temperature (LST) providing high temporal resolution at the cost of low spatial coverage and (ii) remotely sensed data from satellites that provide high spatial coverage at relatively low spatio-temporal resolution. While LST data from satellite (LSTsat) and airborne platforms are routinely corrected for atmospheric effects, such corrections are barely applied for LST from ground-based TIR imagery (using TIR cameras; LSTcam). We show the consequences of neglecting atmospheric effects on LSTcam of different vegetated surfaces at landscape scale. We compare LST measured from different platforms, focusing on the comparison of LST data from on-site radiometry (LSTosr) and LSTcam using a commercially available TIR camera in the region of Bozen/Bolzano (Italy). Given a digital elevation model and measured vertical air temperature profiles, we developed a multiple linear regression model to correct LSTcam data for atmospheric influences. We could show the distinct effect of atmospheric conditions and related radiative processes along the measurement path on LSTcam, proving the necessity to correct LSTcam data on landscape scale, despite their relatively low measurement distances compared to remotely sensed data. Corrected LSTcam data revealed the dampening effect of the atmosphere, especially at high temperature differences between the atmosphere and the vegetated surface. Not correcting for these effects leads to erroneous LST estimates, in particular to an underestimation of the heterogeneity in LST, both in time and space. In the most pronounced case, we found a temperature range extension of almost 10 K.

  5. Magnitude and variability of land evaporation and its components at the global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. G. Miralles

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available A process-based methodology is applied to estimate land-surface evaporation from multi-satellite information. GLEAM (Global Land-surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology combines a wide range of remotely-sensed observations to derive daily actual evaporation and its different components. Soil water stress conditions are defined from a root-zone profile of soil moisture and used to estimate transpiration based on a Priestley and Taylor equation. The methodology also derives evaporationfrom bare soil and snow sublimation. Tall vegetation rainfall interception is independently estimated by means of the Gash analytical model. Here, GLEAM is applied daily, at global scale and a quarter degree resolution. Triple collocation is used to calculate the error structure of the evaporation estimates and test the relative merits of two different precipitation inputs. The spatial distribution of evaporation – and its different components – is analysed to understand the relative importance of each component over different ecosystems. Annual land evaporation is estimated as 67.9 × 103 km3, 80% corresponding to transpiration, 11% to interception loss, 7% to bare soil evaporation and 2% snow sublimation. Results show that rainfall interception plays an important role in the partition of precipitation into evaporation and water available for runoff at a continental scale. This study gives insights into the relative importance of precipitation and net radiation in driving evaporation, and how the seasonal influence of these controls varies over different regions. Precipitation is recognised as an important factor driving evaporation, not only in areas that have limited soil water availability, but also in areas of high rainfall interception and low available energy.

  6. Implications of atmospheric conditions for analysis of surface temperature variability derived from landscape-scale thermography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerle, Albin; Meier, Fred; Heinl, Michael; Egger, Angelika; Leitinger, Georg

    2017-04-01

    Thermal infrared (TIR) cameras perfectly bridge the gap between (i) on-site measurements of land surface temperature (LST) providing high temporal resolution at the cost of low spatial coverage and (ii) remotely sensed data from satellites that provide high spatial coverage at relatively low spatio-temporal resolution. While LST data from satellite (LSTsat) and airborne platforms are routinely corrected for atmospheric effects, such corrections are barely applied for LST from ground-based TIR imagery (using TIR cameras; LSTcam). We show the consequences of neglecting atmospheric effects on LSTcam of different vegetated surfaces at landscape scale. We compare LST measured from different platforms, focusing on the comparison of LST data from on-site radiometry (LSTosr) and LSTcam using a commercially available TIR camera in the region of Bozen/Bolzano (Italy). Given a digital elevation model and measured vertical air temperature profiles, we developed a multiple linear regression model to correct LSTcam data for atmospheric influences. We could show the distinct effect of atmospheric conditions and related radiative processes along the measurement path on LSTcam, proving the necessity to correct LSTcam data on landscape scale, despite their relatively low measurement distances compared to remotely sensed data. Corrected LSTcam data revealed the dampening effect of the atmosphere, especially at high temperature differences between the atmosphere and the vegetated surface. Not correcting for these effects leads to erroneous LST estimates, in particular to an underestimation of the heterogeneity in LST, both in time and space. In the most pronounced case, we found a temperature range extension of almost 10 K.

  7. Automated retrieval of forest structure variables based on multi-scale texture analysis of VHR satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguet, Benoit; Guyon, Dominique; Boukir, Samia; Chehata, Nesrine

    2014-10-01

    The main goal of this study is to design a method to describe the structure of forest stands from Very High Resolution satellite imagery, relying on some typical variables such as crown diameter, tree height, trunk diameter, tree density and tree spacing. The emphasis is placed on the automatization of the process of identification of the most relevant image features for the forest structure retrieval task, exploiting both spectral and spatial information. Our approach is based on linear regressions between the forest structure variables to be estimated and various spectral and Haralick's texture features. The main drawback of this well-known texture representation is the underlying parameters which are extremely difficult to set due to the spatial complexity of the forest structure. To tackle this major issue, an automated feature selection process is proposed which is based on statistical modeling, exploring a wide range of parameter values. It provides texture measures of diverse spatial parameters hence implicitly inducing a multi-scale texture analysis. A new feature selection technique, we called Random PRiF, is proposed. It relies on random sampling in feature space, carefully addresses the multicollinearity issue in multiple-linear regression while ensuring accurate prediction of forest variables. Our automated forest variable estimation scheme was tested on Quickbird and Pléiades panchromatic and multispectral images, acquired at different periods on the maritime pine stands of two sites in South-Western France. It outperforms two well-established variable subset selection techniques. It has been successfully applied to identify the best texture features in modeling the five considered forest structure variables. The RMSE of all predicted forest variables is improved by combining multispectral and panchromatic texture features, with various parameterizations, highlighting the potential of a multi-resolution approach for retrieving forest structure

  8. Drivers of Plot-Scale Variability of CH4 Consumption in a Well-Aerated Pine Forest Soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Maier

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available While differences in greenhouse gas (GHG fluxes between ecosystems can be explained to a certain degree, variability of the same at the plot scale is still challenging. We investigated the spatial variability in soil-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2, methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O to find out what drives spatial variability on the plot scale. Measurements were carried out in a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. forest in a former floodplain on a 250 m2 plot, divided in homogenous strata of vegetation and soil texture. Soil gas fluxes were measured consecutively at 60 points along transects to cover the spatial variability. One permanent chamber was measured repeatedly to monitor temporal changes to soil gas fluxes. The observed patterns at this control chamber were used to standardize the gas fluxes to disentangle temporal variability from the spatial variability of measured GHG fluxes. Concurrent measurements of soil gas diffusivity allowed deriving in situ methanotrophic activity from the CH4 flux measurements. The soil emitted CO2 and consumed CH4 and N2O. Significantly different fluxes of CH4 and CO2 were found for the different soil-vegetation strata, but not for N2O. Soil CH4 consumption increased with soil gas diffusivity within similar strata supporting the hypothesis that CH4 consumption by soils is limited by the supply with atmospheric CH4. Methane consumption in the vegetation strata with dominant silty texture was higher at a given soil gas diffusivity than in the strata with sandy texture. The same pattern was observed for methanotrophic activity, indicating better habitats for methantrophs in silt. Methane consumption increased with soil respiration in all strata. Similarly, methanotrophic activity increased with soil respiration when the individual measurement locations were categorized into silt and sand based on the dominant soil texture, irrespective of the vegetation stratum. Thus, we suggest the rhizosphere and

  9. The Large-Scale Oscillations Influence Over the Interdecadal Climate Variability in Mexico's Central Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jofre, R.; Brito-Castillo, L.; Tereshchenko, I.; Atmospheric Sciences Climatology Climate Variability

    2013-05-01

    Climate in the highlands of Mexico displays high variability due to its complex terrain and elevation. The knowledge to elucidate the principal forcings of these variations can be useful for forecasting annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation over this area. Due to its complexity a small area in the highlands was delimited with defined physical boundaries, encompassing several states of Mexico. The study area was defined as Mexico's Central Region (MCR), which is located between 19.5 ° - 22.5 ° N and 98.5 ° - 104 ° W. Most of this area overlies the plateau of Anahuac, whose physical boundaries extend to the north from the "Sierras Transversales" (composed by the "Sierra de Zacatecas", the "Sierra de la "Breña" and the "Sierra de San Luis") to the "Eje Neovolcánico" to the south; east and west boundaries are confined by the "Sierra Madre Oriental" and the "Sierra Madre Occidental", respectively. Daily data of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation series from a total of 112 weather stations were obtained from CLICOM and ERICIII databases. Several climatic indices with average periods of phase oscillations greater than five years, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDOI), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMOI), The Arctic Oscillation (AOI), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAOI), and Aleutian Low Pressure (ALPI) on a monthly basis for all series, except the ALPI series which is on annual rate, were also used in this study. Indices data were obtained from the web site http://www.cicimar.ipn.mx/oacis/Indices_Climaticos.php/. The common period of all series was 1961-2000. We applied Principal Component Analysis to precipitation and temperature series to identify the principal modes of variation of the series. The first mode explained more than 68% of the variance in the original series and corresponds to annual variations. Contour maps were useful to elucidate that temperature variations are highly correlated with the terrain

  10. Variability in daily pH scales with coral reef accretion and community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, N.; Martz, T.; Brainard, R. E.; Smith, J.

    2011-12-01

    Little is known about natural variability in pH in coastal waters and how resident organisms respond to current nearshore seawater conditions. We used autonomous sensors (SeaFETs) to record temperature and, for the first time, pH with high temporal (hourly observations; 7 months of sampling) resolution on the reef benthos (5-10m depth) at several islands (Kingman, Palmyra and Jarvis) within the newly designated Pacific Remote Island Areas Marine National Monument (PRIMNM) in the northern Line Islands; these islands are uninhabited and lack potentially confounding local impacts (e.g. pollution and overfishing). Recorded benthic pH values were compared with regional means and minimum thresholds based on seasonal amplitude estimated from surrounding open-ocean climatological data, which represent seawater chemistry values in the absence of feedback from the reef. Each SeaFET sensor was co-located with replicate Calcification/Acidification Units (CAUs) designed to quantify species abundances and net community calcification rates so we could determine which, if any, metrics of natural variability in benthic pH and temperature were related to community development and reef accretion rates. The observed range in daily pH encompassed maximums reported from the last century (8.104 in the early evening) to minimums approaching projected levels within the next 100 yrs (7.824 at dawn) for pelagic waters. Net reef calcification rates, measured as calcium carbonate accretion on CAUs, varied within and among islands and were comparable with rates measured from the Pacific and Caribbean using chemistry-based approaches. Benthic species assemblages on the CAUs were differentiated by the presence of calcifying and fleshy taxa (CAP analysis, mean allocation success 80%, δ2 = 0.886, P = <0.001). In general, accretion rates were higher at sites that had a greater number of hours at high pH values each day. Where daily pH failed to exceed climatological seasonal minimum thresholds, net

  11. Large-Scale Liquid Hydrogen Testing of Variable Density Multilayer Insulation with a Foam Substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J. J.; Hastings, L.

    2001-01-01

    The multipurpose hydrogen test bed (MHTB), with an 18-cu m liquid hydrogen tank, was used to evaluate a combination foam/multilayer combination insulation (MLI) concept. The foam element (Isofoam SS-1171) insulates during ground hold/ascent flight, and allowed a dry nitrogen purge as opposed to the more complex/heavy helium purge subsystem normally required. The 45-layer MLI was designed for an on-orbit storage period of 45 days. Unique WI features include a variable layer density, larger but fewer double-aluminized Mylar perforations for ascent to orbit venting, and a commercially established roll-wrap installation process that reduced assembly man-hours and resulted in a roust, virtually seamless MLI. Insulation performance was measured during three test series. The spray-on foam insulation (SOFI) successfully prevented purge gas liquefaction within the MLI and resulted in the expected ground hold heat leak of 63 W/sq m. The orbit hold tests resulted in heat leaks of 0.085 and 0.22 W/sq m with warm boundary temperatures of 164 and 305 K, respectively. Compared to the best previously measured performance with a traditional MLI system, a 41-percent heat leak reduction with 25 fewer MLI layers was achieved. The MHTB MLI heat leak is half that calculated for a constant layer density MLI.

  12. Reference genome assessment from a population scale perspective: an accurate profile of variability and noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbonell-Caballero, José; Amadoz, Alicia; Alonso, Roberto; Hidalgo, Marta R; Çubuk, Cankut; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Dopazo, Joaquín

    2017-11-15

    Current plant and animal genomic studies are often based on newly assembled genomes that have not been properly consolidated. In this scenario, misassembled regions can easily lead to false-positive findings. Despite quality control scores are included within genotyping protocols, they are usually employed to evaluate individual sample quality rather than reference sequence reliability. We propose a statistical model that combines quality control scores across samples in order to detect incongruent patterns at every genomic region. Our model is inherently robust since common artifact signals are expected to be shared between independent samples over misassembled regions of the genome. The reliability of our protocol has been extensively tested through different experiments and organisms with accurate results, improving state-of-the-art methods. Our analysis demonstrates synergistic relations between quality control scores and allelic variability estimators, that improve the detection of misassembled regions, and is able to find strong artifact signals even within the human reference assembly. Furthermore, we demonstrated how our model can be trained to properly rank the confidence of a set of candidate variants obtained from new independent samples. This tool is freely available at http://gitlab.com/carbonell/ces. jcarbonell.cipf@gmail.com or joaquin.dopazo@juntadeandalucia.es. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  13. Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varanka, Dalia; Jiang, Bin; Yao, Xiaobai

    2010-01-01

    Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

  14. Variability of disinfection by-products at a full-scale treatment plant following rainfall events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2017-01-01

    The quality of drinking water sources can decrease when contaminants are transported by overland and subsurface flow and discharged into surface waters following rainfall events. Increases in organic contaminants such as road salts and organic matter may occur and potentially modify disinfection by-products (DBPs) concentration and speciation. This study investigated the effects of various spring rainfall events on the quality of treated waters at a large water treatment plant through the implementation of intensive water quality monitoring of raw, filtered and treated waters during different rainfall events. DBPs (four trihalomethanes and six haloacetic acids) and their explanatory variables (pH, turbidity, water temperature, specific ultraviolet absorbance, total and dissolved organic carbon, bromide and chlorine dose) were measured during four rainfall events. The results showed that water quality degrades during and following rainfall, leading to small increases in trihalomethanes (THM4) and haloacetic acids (HAA6) in treated waters. While THM4 and HAA6 levels remained low during the pre-rainfall period (spring rainfall events were observed. During the rainfall and post-rainfall periods, concentration peaks corresponding to 3-fold and 2-fold increases (respectively 27.5 μg/L for THM4 and 12.6 μg/L for HAA6) compared to pre-rainfall levels were also measured. A slight decrease in harmful brominated THM and HAA proportion was also observed following rainfall events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Small scale temporal variability in the phytoplankton of Independencia Bay, Pisco, Perú

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noemí Ochoa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Temporal variations at small scale of the coastal marine phytoplankton assemblages were studied. Water samples were collected at a fixed station in Bahia Independencia (Pisco-Peru. The sampling took place in the morning (08:00 h. and afternoon (15:00 h over a period of 29 days (March 28 to April 25, 1988. Surface temperatures also were taken, fluctuating from 15,4 °C to 17,2 °C. Diatoms were the principal component of the phytoplankton community and were more related with the total of phytoplankton. Other groups as Dinoflagellates, Coccolitophorids, Silicoflagellates and small flagellates were present but were less important. Skeletonema costatum was the dominant specie during the first nine days of sampling, after that it was substituted by Thalassionema nitzschioides, which remained as dominant until the end of the study. Small variation in species composition but large fluctuations in density of phytoplankton were recorded over a period of few hours. Small increments in temperature influenced in the phytoplankton assemblages.

  16. DYPTOP: a cost-efficient TOPMODEL implementation to simulate sub-grid spatio-temporal dynamics of global wetlands and peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. D. Stocker

    2014-12-01

    TOPMODEL (DYPTOP, which predicts the extent of inundation based on a computationally efficient TOPMODEL implementation. This approach rests on an empirical, grid-cell-specific relationship between the mean soil water balance and the flooded area. DYPTOP combines the simulated inundation extent and its temporal persistency with criteria for the ecosystem water balance and the modelled peatland-specific soil carbon balance to predict the global distribution of peatlands. We apply DYPTOP in combination with the LPX-Bern DGVM and benchmark the global-scale distribution, extent, and seasonality of inundation against satellite data. DYPTOP successfully predicts the spatial distribution and extent of wetlands and major boreal and tropical peatland complexes and reveals the governing limitations to peatland occurrence across the globe. Peatlands covering large boreal lowlands are reproduced only when accounting for a positive feedback induced by the enhanced mean soil water holding capacity in peatland-dominated regions. DYPTOP is designed to minimize input data requirements, optimizes computational efficiency and allows for a modular adoption in Earth system models.

  17. Periodic population codes: From a single circular variable to higher dimensions, multiple nested scales, and conceptual spaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herz, Andreas Vm; Mathis, Alexander; Stemmler, Martin

    2017-10-01

    Across the nervous system, neurons often encode circular stimuli using tuning curves that are not sine or cosine functions, but that belong to the richer class of von Mises functions, which are periodic variants of Gaussians. For a population of neurons encoding a single circular variable with such canonical tuning curves, computing a simple population vector is the optimal read-out of the most likely stimulus. We argue that the advantages of population vector read-outs are so compelling that even the neural representation of the outside world's flat Euclidean geometry is curled up into a torus (a circle times a circle), creating the hexagonal activity patterns of mammalian grid cells. Here, the circular scale is not set a priori, so the nervous system can use multiple scales and gain fields to overcome the ambiguity inherent in periodic representations of linear variables. We review the experimental evidence for this framework and discuss its testable predictions and generalizations to more abstract grid-like neural representations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

  19. A multiple-time-scale turbulence model based on variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.-W.; Chen, C.-P.

    1989-01-01

    A multiple-time-scale turbulence model of a single point closure and a simplified split-spectrum method is presented. In the model, the effect of the ratio of the production rate to the dissipation rate on eddy viscosity is modeled by use of the multiple-time-scales and a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum. The concept of a variable partitioning of the turbulent kinetic energy spectrum and the rest of the model details are based on the previously reported algebraic stress turbulence model. Example problems considered include: a fully developed channel flow, a plane jet exhausting into a moving stream, a wall jet flow, and a weakly coupled wake-boundary layer interaction flow. The computational results compared favorably with those obtained by using the algebraic stress turbulence model as well as experimental data. The present turbulence model, as well as the algebraic stress turbulence model, yielded significantly improved computational results for the complex turbulent boundary layer flows, such as the wall jet flow and the wake boundary layer interaction flow, compared with available computational results obtained by using the standard kappa-epsilon turbulence model.

  20. Field-scale and Regional Variability in Evapotranspiration over Crops in California using Eddy Covariance and Surface Renewal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, E. R.; Clay, J. M.; Leinfelder-Miles, M.; Lambert, J. J.; Little, C.; Monteiro, R. O. C.; Monteiro, P. F. C.; Shapiro, K.; Rice, S.; Snyder, R. L.; Daniele, Z.; Paw U, K. T.

    2016-12-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) estimated using a single crop coefficient and a grass reference largely ignores variability due to heterogeneity in microclimate, soils, and crop management. We employ a relatively low cost energy balance residual method using surface renewal and eddy covariance measurements to continuously estimate half-hourly and daily ET across more than 15 fields and orchards spanning four crops and two regions of California. In the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, measurements were taken in corn, pasture, and alfalfa fields, with 4-5 stations in each crop type spread across the region. In the Southern San Joaquin Valley, measurements were taken in three different pistachio orchards, with one orchard having six stations instrumented to examine salinity-induced heterogeneity. We analyze field-scale and regional variability in ET and measured surface energy balance components. Cross comparisons between the eddy covariance and the surface renewal measurements confirm the robustness of the surface renewal method. A hybrid approach in which remotely sensed net radiation is combined with in situ measurements of sensible heat flux is also investigated. This work will provide ground-truth data for satellite and aerial-based ET estimates and will inform water management at the field and regional scales.

  1. The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

    2017-06-14

    Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

  2. Summer insolation is the primary driver for orbital-scale dust storm variability in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serno, Sascha; Winckler, Gisela; Anderson, Robert F.; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Kienast, Stephanie S.; Haug, Gerald H.

    2016-04-01

    Eolian dust plays an important role in the global climate system through its influence on radiation, albedo and precipitation properties, and through delivering micronutrients like iron to the oceans. Glacial periods of Earth's climate are recognized to be dustier than interglacials, but the conditions leading to greater dust mobilization are poorly defined. We present a high-resolution dust flux record based on 230Th-normalised 4He flux from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) site 882 in the Subarctic North Pacific covering the last 170,000 years. Today, dust storms in the vast dry regions of East Asia are almost exclusively springtime phenomena, due to a specific set of climate conditions driven by the seasonal evolution of the meridional temperature gradient between high and low latitudes. The dust flux record points to high dust storm activity in East Asia during cold periods, with highest dust flux during Marine Isotope Stages 4 and 5d. We interpret periods of higher dust supply as the result of an expansion of the dust season into the summer, primarily controlled by reduced summer insolation at high latitudes and resulting lower air temperatures in Siberia over orbital timescales. Changes in the extent of the large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in North America and Fennoscandinavia, and atmospheric teleconnections, act as a secondary control. On millennial timescales, the occurrence of Heinrich Stadials 1 and 11 signals during the last two terminations in Subarctic North Pacific dust records indicates that dust flux variability over millennial timescales was influenced by climate changes in the North Atlantic.

  3. Synoptic-to-planetary scale wind variability enhances phytoplankton biomass at ocean fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitt, D. B.; Taylor, J. R.; Lévy, M.

    2017-06-01

    In nutrient-limited conditions, phytoplankton growth at fronts is enhanced by winds, which drive upward nutrient fluxes via enhanced turbulent mixing and upwelling. Hence, depth-integrated phytoplankton biomass can be 10 times greater at isolated fronts. Using theory and two-dimensional simulations with a coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model, this paper builds conceptual understanding of the physical processes driving upward nutrient fluxes at fronts forced by unsteady winds with timescales of 4-16 days. The largest vertical nutrient fluxes occur when the surface mixing layer penetrates the nutricline, which fuels phytoplankton in the mixed layer. At a front, mixed layer deepening depends on the magnitude and direction of the wind stress, cross-front variations in buoyancy and velocity at the surface, and potential vorticity at the base of the mixed layer, which itself depends on past wind events. Consequently, mixing layers are deeper and more intermittent in time at fronts than outside fronts. Moreover, mixing can decouple in time from the wind stress, even without other sources of physical variability. Wind-driven upwelling also enhances depth-integrated phytoplankton biomass at fronts; when the mixed layer remains shallower than the nutricline, this results in enhanced subsurface phytoplankton. Oscillatory along-front winds induce both oscillatory and mean upwelling. The mean effect of oscillatory vertical motion is to transiently increase subsurface phytoplankton over days to weeks, whereas slower mean upwelling sustains this increase over weeks to months. Taken together, these results emphasize that wind-driven phytoplankton growth is both spatially and temporally intermittent and depends on a diverse combination of physical processes.

  4. Scaling Issues and Spatio-Temporal Variability in Ecohydrological Modeling on Mountain Topography: Methods and Future of the VELMA Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, K.; Bond, B. J.; McKane, R.; Abdelnour, A. G.; Stieglitz, M.

    2010-12-01

    The interactions between vegetation and hydrology in mountainous terrain are difficult to represent in mathematical models. There are at least three primary reasons for this difficulty. First, expanding plot-scale measurements to the watershed scale requires finding the balance between computational intensity and physical significance. Second, parameters that affect soil, plant and hydrologic processes are distributed heterogeneously across mountain landscapes, and these patterns and processes may be spatially connected. Third, temporal variation in water availability (particularly in seasonal rainfall climates) may involve a “topographical memory” that may be expressed as “lags” between biological and hydrological processes. A unique opportunity for examining the implications of scaling and spatio-temporal variability on ecohydrological models exists at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) in Blue River, Oregon. HJA is a National Science Foundation Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, and has been monitoring climate, stream, and vegetation characteristics of small watersheds for more than 50 years. A recent LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) reconnaissance has produced watershed scale estimations of vegetation and soil surface parameters at a very high spatial resolution, allowing spatially-explicit expansion of long-term data. An ecohydrological model, Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessments (VELMA) developed by the Stieglitz lab at Georgia Tech in collaboration with EPA has also been calibrated specifically for watershed topographies in HJA. VELMA is a coupled ecohydrological model that simulates the cycling and transport of water and nutrients in three dimensions by specific parameterization of hydrological and biogeochemical functions. It contains submodels for plant, soil, and water processes including surface and sub-surface flow on a daily time step. We are using the VELMA model to explore three sequential and fundamental

  5. Using local scale exponent to characterize heart rate variability in response to postural changes in people with spinal cord injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuyuan eLiao

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Heart rate variability (HRV is a promising marker for evaluating the remaining autonomic function in people with spinal cord injury (SCI. HRV is commonly assessed by spectral analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA. This study aimed to investigate whether local scale exponent α(t can reveal new features of HRV that cannot be reflected by spectral measures and DFA coefficients. We studied 12 participants with SCI and 15 healthy able-bodied controls. ECG signals were continually recorded during 10 min sitting and 10 min prone postures. α(t was calculated for scales between 4 s and 60 s. Because α(t could be overestimated at small scales, we developed an approach for correcting α(t based on previous studies. The simulation results on simulated monofractal time series with α between 0.5 and 1.3 showed that the proposed method can yield improved estimation of α(t. We applied the proposed method to raw RR interval series. The results showed that α(t in healthy controls monotonically decreased with scale at scales between 4 s and 12 s (0.083-0.25 Hz in both the sitting and prone postures, whereas in participants with SCI, α(t slowly decreased at almost all scales. The sharp decreasing trend in α(t in controls suggests a more complex dynamics of HRV in controls. α(t at scales between 4 s (0.25 Hz and around 7 s (0.143 Hz was lower in subjects with SCI than in controls in the sitting posture; α(t at a narrow range of scales around 12 s (0.083 Hz was higher in participants with SCI than in controls in the prone posture. However, none of normalized low frequency (0.04-0.15 Hz power, the ratio of low frequency power to high frequency (0.15-0.4 Hz power and long-term (>11 beats DFA coefficient showed significant difference between healthy controls and subjects with SCI in the prone posture. Our results suggest that α(t can reveal more detailed information in comparison to spectral measures and the standard DFA parameters.

  6. Using local scale exponent to characterize heart rate variability in response to postural changes in people with spinal cord injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Fuyuan; Liau, Ben-Yi; Rice, Ian M.; Elliott, Jeannette; Brooks, Ian; Jan, Yih-Kuen

    2015-01-01

    Heart rate variability (HRV) is a promising marker for evaluating the remaining autonomic function in people with spinal cord injury (SCI). HRV is commonly assessed by spectral analysis and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). This study aimed to investigate whether local scale exponent α(t) can reveal new features of HRV that cannot be reflected by spectral measures and DFA coefficients. We studied 12 participants with SCI and 15 healthy able-bodied controls. ECG signals were continually recorded during 10 min sitting and 10 min prone postures. α(t) was calculated for scales between 4 and 60 s. Because α(t) could be overestimated at small scales, we developed an approach for correcting α(t) based on previous studies. The simulation results on simulated monofractal time series with α between 0.5 and 1.3 showed that the proposed method can yield improved estimation of α(t). We applied the proposed method to raw RR interval series. The results showed that α(t) in healthy controls monotonically decreased with scale at scales between 4 and 12 s (0.083–0.25 Hz) in both the sitting and prone postures, whereas in participants with SCI, α(t) slowly decreased at almost all scales. The sharp decreasing trend in α(t) in controls suggests a more complex dynamics of HRV in controls. α(t) at scales between 4 (0.25 Hz) and around 7 s (0.143 Hz) was lower in subjects with SCI than in controls in the sitting posture; α(t) at a narrow range of scales around 12 s (0.083 Hz) was higher in participants with SCI than in controls in the prone posture. However, none of normalized low frequency (0.04–0.15 Hz) power, the ratio of low frequency power to high frequency (0.15–0.4 Hz) power and long-term (>11 beats) DFA coefficient showed significant difference between healthy controls and subjects with SCI in the prone posture. Our results suggest that α(t) can reveal more detailed information in comparison to spectral measures and the standard DFA parameters. PMID:26029112

  7. Variability of the climatic oceanic frontal zones and its connection with the large-scale atmospheric forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazmin, Alexander S.

    2017-05-01

    Global satellite sea surface temperature (SST) measurements and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data for the period of 1982-2009 have been used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the main climatic oceanic frontal zones (OFZ; subpolar, subtropical and equatorial) associated with the large-scale atmospheric forcing. The seasonal variability of the OFZ is manifested in variations of their intensity (magnitude of the meridional gradient of SST) and latitudinal position of the cores (defined as areas of maximum SST gradient). The maximum intensity of the subpolar OFZ is observed in summer of the corresponding hemisphere, while subtropical OFZ are intensified synchronously in both hemispheres during boreal winter. Subtropical OFZ cores in both hemispheres shift synchronously to the south/north during the winter/summer of the Northern hemisphere, which is caused by the seasonal meridional migration of the areas of the maximum convergence of Ekman transport. All subpolar and subtropical OFZ reveal a pronounced quasi-decadal (7-10 years) variability, manifested in the variations of their intensity and latitudinal position of the zones' cores. Strengthening of the SST gradient is accompanied by a displacement of the zones' cores to the north in both hemispheres for subpolar OFZ, while subtropical OFZ cores migrate to the poles in this situation. Positive correlations between the maximum magnitude of the meridional gradient of zonally averaged SST and meridional shear of zonal wind (which is an estimate of the Ekman convergence intensity) were found for all subpolar and subtropical OFZ. Variability of the latitudinal position of subpolar OFZ cores is associated with the Ekman advection variability due to zonal wind variations (strengthening of zonal wind results in a shift of subpolar OFZ cores to the south/north in the Northern/Southern hemispheres). A period of the variability of the North Pacific equatorial OFZ is 4-5 years and is determined by the variability

  8. Organismal climatology: analyzing environmental variability at scales relevant to physiological stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helmuth, Brian; Broitman, Bernardo R; Yamane, Lauren; Gilman, Sarah E; Mach, Katharine; Mislan, K A S; Denny, Mark W

    2010-03-15

    Predicting when, where and with what magnitude climate change is likely to affect the fitness, abundance and distribution of organisms and the functioning of ecosystems has emerged as a high priority for scientists and resource managers. However, even in cases where we have detailed knowledge of current species' range boundaries, we often do not understand what, if any, aspects of weather and climate act to set these limits. This shortcoming significantly curtails our capacity to predict potential future range shifts in response to climate change, especially since the factors that set range boundaries under those novel conditions may be different from those that set limits today. We quantitatively examine a nine-year time series of temperature records relevant to the body temperatures of intertidal mussels as measured using biomimetic sensors. Specifically, we explore how a 'climatology' of body temperatures, as opposed to long-term records of habitat-level parameters such as air and water temperatures, can be used to extrapolate meaningful spatial and temporal patterns of physiological stress. Using different metrics that correspond to various aspects of physiological stress (seasonal means, cumulative temperature and the return time of extremes) we show that these potential environmental stressors do not always occur in synchrony with one another. Our analysis also shows that patterns of animal temperature are not well correlated with simple, commonly used metrics such as air temperature. Detailed physiological studies can provide guidance to predicting the effects of global climate change on natural ecosystems but only if we concomitantly record, archive and model environmental signals at appropriate scales.

  9. Variability of scaling time series in the Arctic sea-ice drift dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Chmel

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The motion of an individual ice floe in the Arctic Ocean was monitored at the Russian research station North Pole 35 established on the ice pack in 2008. The ice floe speed (V was found to be correlated with wind speed (v in main features, such as the positions of maxima and minima of V and v. However, the fine structure of the V-variation cannot be explained by the wind forcing alone. There were periods of time when the floe drift was affected by the interactions of ice floes between each other or by the periodical forcing due to either the Coriolis inertia effect or the tidal activity. These data were compared with the "waiting times" statistics that are the distributions of time intervals between subsequent, sufficiently strong changes in the kinetic energy of drifting ice floe. These distributions were measured in several time windows differing in the average wind speed and wind direction, and/or in the mechanical state of the ice pack. The distribution functions N (t>τ, where N is the number of successive events of energy change separated by the time interval t that exceeds τ, constructed in different time windows demonstrate fractal or a multifractal nature of the time series during motion in the consolidated ice pack but were truly random when the ice floe drifted in the highly fragmented sea ice. The latter result shows the existence of a relationship between the long-range mechanical interactions in the pack and long-term memory (time scaling behaviour of the sea-ice motion.

  10. Gear fault diagnosis under variable conditions with intrinsic time-scale decomposition-singular value decomposition and support vector machine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xing, Zhanqiang; Qu, Jianfeng; Chai, Yi; Tang, Qiu; Zhou, Yuming [Chongqing University, Chongqing (China)

    2017-02-15

    The gear vibration signal is nonlinear and non-stationary, gear fault diagnosis under variable conditions has always been unsatisfactory. To solve this problem, an intelligent fault diagnosis method based on Intrinsic time-scale decomposition (ITD)-Singular value decomposition (SVD) and Support vector machine (SVM) is proposed in this paper. The ITD method is adopted to decompose the vibration signal of gearbox into several Proper rotation components (PRCs). Subsequently, the singular value decomposition is proposed to obtain the singular value vectors of the proper rotation components and improve the robustness of feature extraction under variable conditions. Finally, the Support vector machine is applied to classify the fault type of gear. According to the experimental results, the performance of ITD-SVD exceeds those of the time-frequency analysis methods with EMD and WPT combined with SVD for feature extraction, and the classifier of SVM outperforms those for K-nearest neighbors (K-NN) and Back propagation (BP). Moreover, the proposed approach can accurately diagnose and identify different fault types of gear under variable conditions.

  11. Mapping the Centimeter-Scale Spatial Variability of PAHs and Microbial Populations in the Rhizosphere of Two Plants.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amélia Bourceret

    Full Text Available Rhizoremediation uses root development and exudation to favor microbial activity. Thus it can enhance polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH biodegradation in contaminated soils. Spatial heterogeneity of rhizosphere processes, mainly linked to the root development stage and to the plant species, could explain the contrasted rhizoremediation efficiency levels reported in the literature. Aim of the present study was to test if spatial variability in the whole plant rhizosphere, explored at the centimetre-scale, would influence the abundance of microorganisms (bacteria and fungi, and the abundance and activity of PAH-degrading bacteria, leading to spatial variability in PAH concentrations. Two contrasted rhizospheres were compared after 37 days of alfalfa or ryegrass growth in independent rhizotron devices. Almost all spiked PAHs were degraded, and the density of the PAH-degrading bacterial populations increased in both rhizospheres during the incubation period. Mapping of multiparametric data through geostatistical estimation (kriging revealed that although root biomass was spatially structured, PAH distribution was not. However a greater variability of the PAH content was observed in the rhizosphere of alfalfa. Yet, in the ryegrass-planted rhizotron, the Gram-positive PAH-degraders followed a reverse depth gradient to root biomass, but were positively correlated to the soil pH and carbohydrate concentrations. The two rhizospheres structured the microbial community differently: a fungus-to-bacterium depth gradient similar to the root biomass gradient only formed in the alfalfa rhizotron.

  12. Mapping the Centimeter-Scale Spatial Variability of PAHs and Microbial Populations in the Rhizosphere of Two Plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourceret, Amélia; Leyval, Corinne; de Fouquet, Chantal; Cébron, Aurélie

    2015-01-01

    Rhizoremediation uses root development and exudation to favor microbial activity. Thus it can enhance polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) biodegradation in contaminated soils. Spatial heterogeneity of rhizosphere processes, mainly linked to the root development stage and to the plant species, could explain the contrasted rhizoremediation efficiency levels reported in the literature. Aim of the present study was to test if spatial variability in the whole plant rhizosphere, explored at the centimetre-scale, would influence the abundance of microorganisms (bacteria and fungi), and the abundance and activity of PAH-degrading bacteria, leading to spatial variability in PAH concentrations. Two contrasted rhizospheres were compared after 37 days of alfalfa or ryegrass growth in independent rhizotron devices. Almost all spiked PAHs were degraded, and the density of the PAH-degrading bacterial populations increased in both rhizospheres during the incubation period. Mapping of multiparametric data through geostatistical estimation (kriging) revealed that although root biomass was spatially structured, PAH distribution was not. However a greater variability of the PAH content was observed in the rhizosphere of alfalfa. Yet, in the ryegrass-planted rhizotron, the Gram-positive PAH-degraders followed a reverse depth gradient to root biomass, but were positively correlated to the soil pH and carbohydrate concentrations. The two rhizospheres structured the microbial community differently: a fungus-to-bacterium depth gradient similar to the root biomass gradient only formed in the alfalfa rhizotron.

  13. Field scale variability of solute transport parameters and related soil properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Lennartz

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available The spatial variability of transport parameters has to be taken into account for a reliable assessment of solute behaviour in natural field soils. Two field sites were studied by collecting 24 and 36 small undisturbed soil columns at an uniform grid of 15 m spacing. Displacement experiments were conducted in these columns with bromide traced water under unsaturated steady state transport conditions. Measured breakthrough curves (BTCs were evaluated with the simple convective-dispersive equation (CDE. The solute mobility index (MI calculated as the ratio of measured to fitted pore water velocity and the dispersion coefficient (D were used to classify bromide breakthrough behaviour. Experimental BTCs were classified into two groups: type I curves expressed classical solute behaviour while type II curves were characterised by the occurrence of a bromide concentration maximum before 0.35 pore volumes of effluent (MI<0.35 resulting from preferential flow conditions. Six columns from site A and 8 from site B were identified as preferential. Frequency distributions of the transport parameters (MI and D of both sites were either extremely skewed or bimodal. Log-transformation did not lead to a normal distribution in any case. Contour maps of bromide mass flux at certain time steps indicated the clustering of preferential flow regions at both sites. Differences in the extent of preferential flow between sites seemed to be governed by soil structure. Linear cross correlations among transport parameters and independently measured soil properties revealed relations between solute mobility and volumetric soil water content at time of sampling, texture and organic carbon content. The volumetric field soil water content, a simple measure characterising the soil hydraulic behaviour at the sampling location, was found to be a highly sensitive parameter with respect to solute mobility and preferential flow situations. Almost no relation was found between solute

  14. Large spatial scale variability in bathyal macrobenthos abundance, biomass, α- and β-diversity along the Mediterranean continental margin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Baldrighi

    Full Text Available The large-scale deep-sea biodiversity distribution of the benthic fauna was explored in the Mediterranean Sea, which can be seen as a miniature model of the oceans of the world. Within the framework of the BIOFUN project ("Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning in Contrasting Southern European Deep-sea Environments: from viruses to megafauna", we investigated the large spatial scale variability (over >1,000 km of the bathyal macrofauna communities that inhabit the Mediterranean basin, and their relationships with the environmental variables. The macrofauna abundance, biomass, community structure and functional diversity were analysed and the α-diversity and β-diversity were estimated across six selected slope areas at different longitudes and along three main depths. The macrobenthic standing stock and α-diversity were lower in the deep-sea sediments of the eastern Mediterranean basin, compared to the western and central basins. The macrofaunal standing stock and diversity decreased significantly from the upper bathyal to the lower bathyal slope stations. The major changes in the community composition of the higher taxa and in the trophic (functional structure occurred at different longitudes, rather than at increasing water depth. For the β-diversity, very high dissimilarities emerged at all levels: (i between basins; (ii between slopes within the same basin; and (iii between stations at different depths; this therefore demonstrates the high macrofaunal diversity of the Mediterranean basins at large spatial scales. Overall, the food sources (i.e., quantity and quality that characterised the west, central and eastern Mediterranean basins, as well as sediment grain size, appear to influence the macrobenthic standing stock and the biodiversity along the different slope areas.

  15. Large spatial scale variability in bathyal macrobenthos abundance, biomass, α- and β-diversity along the Mediterranean continental margin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldrighi, Elisa; Lavaleye, Marc; Aliani, Stefano; Conversi, Alessandra; Manini, Elena

    2014-01-01

    The large-scale deep-sea biodiversity distribution of the benthic fauna was explored in the Mediterranean Sea, which can be seen as a miniature model of the oceans of the world. Within the framework of the BIOFUN project ("Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning in Contrasting Southern European Deep-sea Environments: from viruses to megafauna"), we investigated the large spatial scale variability (over >1,000 km) of the bathyal macrofauna communities that inhabit the Mediterranean basin, and their relationships with the environmental variables. The macrofauna abundance, biomass, community structure and functional diversity were analysed and the α-diversity and β-diversity were estimated across six selected slope areas at different longitudes and along three main depths. The macrobenthic standing stock and α-diversity were lower in the deep-sea sediments of the eastern Mediterranean basin, compared to the western and central basins. The macrofaunal standing stock and diversity decreased significantly from the upper bathyal to the lower bathyal slope stations. The major changes in the community composition of the higher taxa and in the trophic (functional) structure occurred at different longitudes, rather than at increasing water depth. For the β-diversity, very high dissimilarities emerged at all levels: (i) between basins; (ii) between slopes within the same basin; and (iii) between stations at different depths; this therefore demonstrates the high macrofaunal diversity of the Mediterranean basins at large spatial scales. Overall, the food sources (i.e., quantity and quality) that characterised the west, central and eastern Mediterranean basins, as well as sediment grain size, appear to influence the macrobenthic standing stock and the biodiversity along the different slope areas.

  16. Time-variable gravity potential components for optical clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, C.; Denker, H.; Timmen, L.

    2016-12-01

    The latest generation of optical atomic clocks is approaching the level of one part in 1018 in terms of frequency stability and uncertainty. For clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales, a relativistic redshift effect of the clock frequencies has to be taken into account at a corresponding uncertainty level of about 0.1 m2 s-2 and 0.01 m in terms of gravity potential and height, respectively. Besides the predominant static part of the gravity potential, temporal variations must be considered in order to avoid systematic frequency shifts. Time-variable gravity potential components induced by tides and non-tidal mass redistributions are investigated with regard to the level of one part in 1018. The magnitudes and dominant time periods of the individual gravity potential contributions are investigated globally and for specific laboratory sites together with the related uncertainty estimates. The basics of the computation methods are presented along with the applied models, data sets and software. Solid Earth tides contribute by far the most dominant signal with a global maximum amplitude of 4.2 m2 s-2 for the potential and a range (maximum-to-minimum) of up to 1.3 and 10.0 m2 s-2 in terms of potential differences between specific laboratories over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. Amplitudes of the ocean tidal loading potential can amount up to 1.25 m2 s-2, while the range of the potential between specific laboratories is 0.3 and 1.1 m2 s-2 over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. These are the only two contributors being relevant at a 10-17 level. However, several other time-variable potential effects can particularly affect clock comparisons at the 10-18 level. Besides solid Earth pole tides, these are non-tidal mass redistributions in the atmosphere, the oceans and the continental water storage.

  17. Observing the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization with Variable-delay Polarization Modulators for the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrington, Kathleen; CLASS Collaboration

    2018-01-01

    The search for inflationary primordial gravitational waves and the optical depth to reionization, both through their imprint on the large angular scale correlations in the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), has created the need for high sensitivity measurements of polarization across large fractions of the sky at millimeter wavelengths. These measurements are subjected to instrumental and atmospheric 1/f noise, which has motivated the development of polarization modulators to facilitate the rejection of these large systematic effects.Variable-delay polarization modulators (VPMs) are used in the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) telescopes as the first element in the optical chain to rapidly modulate the incoming polarization. VPMs consist of a linearly polarizing wire grid in front of a moveable flat mirror; varying the distance between the grid and the mirror produces a changing phase shift between polarization states parallel and perpendicular to the grid which modulates Stokes U (linear polarization at 45°) and Stokes V (circular polarization). The reflective and scalable nature of the VPM enables its placement as the first optical element in a reflecting telescope. This simultaneously allows a lock-in style polarization measurement and the separation of sky polarization from any instrumental polarization farther along in the optical chain.The Q-Band CLASS VPM was the first VPM to begin observing the CMB full time in 2016. I will be presenting its design and characterization as well as demonstrating how modulating polarization significantly rejects atmospheric and instrumental long time scale noise.

  18. Variable water column structure of the South Atlantic on glacial-interglacial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Méndez, Gema; Molyneux, Elizabeth G.; Hall, Ian R.; Zahn, Rainer

    2009-12-01

    Northern Component Water (NCW) during early glacial phases to Upper Southern Component Water (USCW) during mid-to-late glacial phases when the Southern Ocean may have become isolated. USCW maintained a positive δ 13C and δ 13C as signature simulating a North Atlantic origin that has been implicated in previous studies. The data demonstrate that secular imprints on δ 13C must be taken into consideration when assessing the implications of the vertical δ 13C gradient. This data also supports a variable water column architecture and modes of water mass formation as primary means to draw down atmospheric CO 2 and storage in the abyssal ocean by involving processes occurring on either side of the SAF in the glacial Southern Ocean.

  19. Photometric variability of the T Tauri star TW Hya on time-scales of hours to years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rucinski, Slavek M.; Matthews, Jaymie M.; Kuschnig, Rainer; Pojmański, Grzegorz; Rowe, Jason; Guenther, David B.; Moffat, Anthony F. J.; Sasselov, Dimitar; Walker, Gordon A. H.; Weiss, Werner W.

    2008-12-01

    Microvariability & Oscillations of STars (MOST) and All Sky Automated Survey (ASAS) observations have been used to characterize photometric variability of TW Hya on time-scales from a fraction of a day to 7.5 weeks and from a few days to 8 yr, respectively. The two data sets have very different uncertainties and temporal coverage properties and cannot be directly combined, nevertheless, they suggest a global variability spectrum with `flicker-noise' properties, that is with amplitudes , over >4 decades in frequency, in the range f = 0.0003-10cd-1. A 3.7d period is clearly present in the continuous 11d, 0.07d time resolution, observations by MOST in 2007. Brightness extrema coincide with zero-velocity crossings in periodic (3.56d) radial-velocity variability detected in contemporaneous spectroscopic observations of Setiawan et al. and interpreted as caused by a planet. The 3.56/3.7d periodicity was entirely absent in the second, 4 times longer MOST run in 2008, casting doubt on the planetary explanation. Instead, a spectrum of unstable single periods within the range of 2-9d was observed; the tendency of the periods to progressively shorten was well traced using the wavelet analysis. The evolving periodicities and the overall flicker-noise characteristics of the TW Hya variability suggest a combination of several mechanisms, with the dominant ones probably related to the accretion processes from the disc around the star. Based on data from the MOST satellite, a Canadian Space Agency mission jointly operated by Dynacon Inc., the University of Toronto Institute for Aerospace Studies and the University of British Columbia, with the assistance of the University of Vienna, and on data from the All Sky Automated Survey (ASAS) conducted by the Warsaw University Observatory, Warsaw, Poland at the Las Campanas Observatory, Chile. E-mail: rucinski@astro.utoronto.ca

  20. Information transfer and synchronization among the scales of climate variability: clues for understanding anomalies and extreme events?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, Milan

    2017-04-01

    Deeper understanding of complex dynamics of the Earth atmosphere and climate is inevitable for sustainable development, mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change and for prediction of and resilience against extreme events. Traditional (linear) approaches cannot explain or even detect nonlinear interactions of dynamical processes evolving on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Combination of nonlinear dynamics and information theory explains synchronization as a process of adjustment of information rates [1] and causal relations (à la Granger) as information transfer [2]. Information born in dynamical complexity or information transferred among systems on a way to synchronization might appear as an abstract quantity, however, information transfer is tied to a transfer of mass and energy, as demonstrated in a recent study using directed (causal) climate networks [2]. Recently, an information transfer across scales of atmospheric dynamics has been observed [3]. In particular, a climate oscillation with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as a factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [4]. In the dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, three principal time scales have been identified: the annual cycle (AC), the quasibiennial (QB) mode(s) and the low-frequency (LF) variability. An intricate causal network of information flows among these modes helps to understand the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, characterized by synchronization of the QB modes and AC, and modulation of the QB amplitude by the LF mode. The latter

  1. Impacts of short-time scale water column variability on broadband high-frequency acoustic wave propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eickmeier, Justin

    Acoustical oceanography is one way to study the ocean, its internal layers, boundaries and all processes occurring within using underwater acoustics. Acoustical sensing techniques allows for the measurement of ocean processes from within that logistically or financially preclude traditional in-situ measurements. Acoustic signals propagate as pressure wavefronts from a source to a receiver through an ocean medium with variable physical parameters. The water column physical parameters that change acoustic wave propagation in the ocean include temperature, salinity, current, surface roughness, seafloor bathymetry, and vertical stratification over variable time scales. The impacts of short-time scale water column variability on acoustic wave propagation include coherent and incoherent surface reflections, wavefront arrival time delay, focusing or defocusing of the intensity of acoustic beams and refraction of acoustic rays. This study focuses on high-frequency broadband acoustic waves, and examines the influence of short-time scale water column variability on broadband high-frequency acoustics, wavefronts, from 7 to 28 kHz, in shallow water. Short-time scale variability is on the order of seconds to hours and the short-spatial scale variability is on the order of few centimeters. Experimental results were collected during an acoustic experiment along 100 m isobaths and data analysis was conducted using available acoustic wave propagation models. Three main topics are studied to show that acoustic waves are viable as a remote sensing tool to measure oceanographic parameters in shallow water. First, coherent surface reflections forming striation patterns, from multipath receptions, through rough surface interaction of broadband acoustic signals with the dynamic sea surface are analyzed. Matched filtered results of received acoustic waves are compared with a ray tracing numerical model using a sea surface boundary generated from measured water wave spectra at the time of

  2. Development of a scale to measure adherence to self-monitoring of blood glucose with latent variable measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, J A; Schnoll, R A; Gipson, M T

    1998-07-01

    Adherence to self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) is problematic for many people with diabetes. Self-reports of adherence have been found to be unreliable, and existing paper-and-pencil measures have limitations. This study developed a brief measure of SMBG adherence with good psychometric properties and a useful factor structure that can be used in research and in practice. A total of 216 adults with diabetes responded to 30 items rated on a 9-point Likert scale that asked about blood monitoring habits. In part I of the study, items were evaluated and retained based on their psychometric properties. The sample was divided into exploratory and confirmatory halves. Using the exploratory half, items with acceptable psychometric properties were subjected to a principal components analysis. In part II of the study, structural equation modeling was used to confirm the component solution with the entire sample. Structural modeling was also used to test the relationship between these components. It was hypothesized that the scale would produce four correlated factors. Principal components analysis suggested a two-component solution, and confirmatory factor analysis confirmed this solution. The first factor measures the degree to which patients rely on others to help them test and thus was named "social influence." The second component measures the degree to which patients use physical symptoms of blood glucose levels to help them test and thus was named "physical influence." Results of the structural model show that the components are correlated and make up the higher-order latent variable adherence. The resulting 15-item scale provides a short, reliable way to assess patient adherence to SMBG. Despite the existence of several aspects of adherence, this study indicates that the construct consists of only two components. This scale is an improvement on previous measures of adherence because of its good psychometric properties, its interpretable factor structure, and its

  3. Saccharification Performances of Miscanthus at the Pilot and Miniaturized Assay Scales: Genotype and Year Variabilities According to the Biomass Composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nassim Belmokhtar

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available HIGHLIGHTSBiomass production and cell wall composition are differentially impacted by harvesting year and genotypes, influencing then cellulose conversion in miniaturized assay.Using a high-throughput miniaturized and semi-automated method for performing the pretreatment and saccharification steps at laboratory scale allows for the assessment of these factors on the biomass potential for producing bioethanol before moving to the industrial scale.The large genetic diversity of the perennial grass miscanthus makes it suitable for producing cellulosic ethanol in biorefineries. The saccharification potential and year variability of five genotypes belonging to Miscanthus × giganteus and Miscanthus sinensis were explored using a miniaturized and semi-automated method, allowing the application of a hot water treatment followed by an enzymatic hydrolysis. The studied genotypes highlighted distinct cellulose conversion yields due to their distinct cell wall compositions. An inter-year comparison revealed significant variations in the biomass productivity and cell wall compositions. Compared to the recalcitrant genotypes, more digestible genotypes contained higher amounts of hemicellulosic carbohydrates and lower amounts of cellulose and lignin. In contrast to hemicellulosic carbohydrates, the relationships analysis between the biomass traits and cellulose conversion clearly showed the same negative effect of cellulose and lignin on cellulose digestion. The miniaturized and semi-automated method we developed was usable at the laboratory scale and was reliable for mimicking the saccharification at the pilot scale using a steam explosion pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. Therefore, this miniaturized method will allow the reliable screening of many genotypes for saccharification potential. These findings provide valuable information and tools for breeders to create genotypes combining high yield, suitable biomass composition, and high saccharification

  4. Large-scale Periodic Variability of the Wind of the Wolf-Rayet Star WR 1 (HD 4004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chené, A.-N.; St-Louis, N.

    2010-06-01

    We present the results of an intensive photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of the WN4 Wolf-Rayet (WR) star WR 1 = HD 4004. Our broadband V photometry covering a timespan of 91 days shows variability with a period of P = 16.9+0.6 -0.3 days. The same period is also found in our spectral data. The light curve is non-sinusoidal with hints of a gradual change in its shape as a function of time. The photometric variations nevertheless remain coherent over several cycles and we estimate that the coherence timescale of the light curve is of the order of 60 days. The spectroscopy shows large-scale line-profile variability which can be interpreted as excess emission peaks moving from one side of the profile to the other on a timescale of several days. Although we cannot unequivocally exclude the unlikely possibility that WR 1 is a binary, we propose that the nature of the variability we have found strongly suggests that it is due to the presence in the wind of the WR star of large-scale structures, most likely corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which are predicted to arise in inherently unstable radiatively driven winds when they are perturbed at their base. We also suggest that variability observed in WR 6, WR 134, and WR 137 is of the same nature. Finally, assuming that the period of CIRs is related to the rotational period, we estimate the rotation rate of the four stars for which sufficient monitoring has been carried out, i.e., v rot = 6.5, 40, 70, and 275 km s-1 for WR 1, WR 6, WR 134, and WR 137, respectively. Based on observations obtained at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) which is operated by the National Research Council of Canada, the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de Recherche Scientifique of France, and the University of Hawaii. Also based on observations obtained at the Observatoire du Mont Mégantic with is operated by the Centre de Recherche en Astrophysique du Québec and the Observatoire de

  5. Variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation indices for the northern hemisphere during the past 100 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broennimann, Stefan; Stickler, Alexander [Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Griesser, Thomas; Fischer, Andreas M.; Grant, Andrea; Ewen, Tracy; Zhou Tianjun; Schraner, Martin; Peter, Thomas [LASG, Inst. of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BJ (China); Rozanov, Eugene [Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland); PMOD/WRC, Davos (Switzerland)

    2009-08-15

    We present an analysis of the large-scale atmospheric circulation variability since 1900 based on various circulation indices. They represent the main features of the zonal mean circulation in the northern hemisphere in boreal winter (such as the Hadley circulation, the subtropical jet, and the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere) as well as aspects of the regional and large-scale circulation (the Pacific Walker Circulation, the Indian monsoon, the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO, and the Pacific North American pattern, PNA). For the past decades we calculate the indices from different reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, JRA-25, ERA-Interim). For the first half of the 20{sup th} century the indices are statistically reconstructed based on historical upper-air and surface data as well as calculated from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis. The indices from all these observation-based data sets are compared to indices calculated from a 9-member ensemble of ''all forcings'' simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL. After discussing the agreement among different data products, we analyse the interannual-to-decadal variability of the indices in the context of possible driving factors, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), volcanic eruptions, and solar activity. The interannual variability of the Hadley cell strength, the subtropical jet strength, or the PNA is well reproduced by the model ensemble mean, i.e., it is predictable in the context of the specified forcings. The source of this predictability is mainly related to ENSO (or more generally, tropical sea-surface temperatures). For other indices such as the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex, the NAO, or the poleward extent of the Hadley cell the correlations between observations and model ensemble mean are much lower, but so are the correlations within the model ensemble. Multidecadal variability and trends in the individual series are discussed in the context of

  6. Orbital and Millennial-scale Variability Reflected on Continental-scale Vegetation Changes in the Southern Subtropics between MIS 6 and 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrego, D. H.; Sanchez Goni, M.; Daniau, A.; Martinez, P.

    2011-12-01

    While our understanding of the effects of orbital and millennial-scale variability on the vegetation has grown during the past decades, empirical data from some climatically important periods and regions are still lacking. Scarce data exist for instance for deep-time glacial-interglacial cycles that could provide suitable analogs for current climate-change. Recent global-scale reconstructions of vegetation responses to rapid events during the last glacial cycle have been useful, however, these global compilations clearly show that some regions, namely the southern tropics and subtropics, remain understudied. Here we present results from one of the few available continental-scale vegetation records from southwestern Africa spanning the last glacial-interglacial cycle. We have conducted multiproxy analyses of marine core MD96 2098 (25°36'S, 12°38'E), retrieved from the Lüderitz slope off the coast of Namibia. Preservation of pollen and other terrestrial microfossils is facilitated at this site by the Benguela upwelling system and the proximity to the Orange River mouth. Chronological control has been derived from radiocarbon dates and marine isotope stratigraphy. We have used pollen analyses, benthic foraminifer d18O (1), X-ray Fluorescence, geochemistry (2), foraminifer assemblages and microcharcoal quantification (3) to reconstruct the terrestrial vegetation and climatic history of the southwestern part of Africa and offshore between 190 and 30 ka. We find that MIS 6 and 4 are characterized by expanding Semidesert and Fynbos vegetation, while expanding grasslands characterized MIS 5. The termination of MIS 5 is also punctuated by an expansion of humid forests. At millennial timescales, variations in grasslands are generally coupled with stadials and interstadials. The expansion of semidesert is associated with decreased continental humidity caused by the strengthening of the Benguela upwelling during MIS 6 and 4. The expansion of grasslands during the

  7. Homogeneity Analysis with k Sets of Variables: An Alternating Least Squares Method with Optimal Scaling Features. Research Report 86-5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Burg, Eeke; And Others

    Homogeneity analysis, or multiple correspondence analysis, is usually applied to k separate variables. In this paper, it is applied to sets of variables by using sums within sets. The resulting technique is referred to as OVERALS. It uses the notion of optimal scaling, with transformations that can be multiple or single. The single transformations…

  8. Biogeography of ectomycorrhizal fungi associated with alders (Alnus spp.) in relation to biotic and abiotic variables at the global scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Põlme, Sergei; Bahram, Mohammad; Yamanaka, Takashi; Nara, Kazuhide; Dai, Yu Cheng; Grebenc, Tine; Kraigher, Hojka; Toivonen, Mika; Wang, Pi-Han; Matsuda, Yosuke; Naadel, Triin; Kennedy, Peter G; Kõljalg, Urmas; Tedersoo, Leho

    2013-06-01

    · Much of the macroecological information about microorganisms is confounded by the lack of standardized methodology, paucity of metadata and sampling effect of a particular substrate or interacting host taxa. · This study aims to disentangle the relative effects of biological, geographical and edaphic variables on the distribution of Alnus-associated ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi at the global scale by using comparable sampling and analysis methods. · Ribosomal DNA sequence analysis revealed 146 taxa of ECM fungi from 22 Alnus species across 96 sites worldwide. Use of spatial and phylogenetic eigenvectors along with environmental variables in model selection indicated that phylogenetic relations among host plants and geographical links explained 43 and 10%, respectively,in ECM fungal community composition, whereas soil calcium concentration positively influenced taxonomic richness. · Intrageneric phylogenetic relations among host plants and regional processes largely account for the global biogeographic distribution of Alnus-associated ECM fungi. The biogeography of ECM fungi is consistent with ancient host migration patterns from Eurasia to North America and from southern Europe to northern Europe after the last glacial maximum, indicating codispersal of hosts and their mycobionts. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  9. Behavioral Pediatrics Feeding Assessment Scale in Young Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder: Psychometrics and Associations With Child and Parent Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Stephanie L; Smith, Isabel M; Duku, Eric; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Szatmari, Peter; Bryson, Susan; Fombonne, Eric; Volden, Joanne; Waddell, Charlotte; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Roberts, Wendy; Mirenda, Pat; Bennett, Teresa; Elsabbagh, Mayada; Georgiades, Stelios

    2015-07-01

    The factor structure and validity of the Behavioral Pediatrics Feeding Assessment Scale (BPFAS; Crist & Napier-Phillips, 2001) were examined in preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Confirmatory factor analysis was used to examine the original BPFAS five-factor model, the fit of each latent variable, and a rival one-factor model. None of the models was adequate, thus a categorical exploratory factor analysis (CEFA) was conducted. Correlations were used to examine relations between the BPFAS and concurrent variables of interest. The CEFA identified an acceptable three-factor model. Correlational analyses indicated that feeding problems were positively related to parent-reported autism symptoms, behavior problems, sleep problems, and parenting stress, but largely unrelated to performance-based indices of autism symptom severity, language, and cognitive abilities, as well as child age. These results provide evidence supporting the use of the identified BPFAS three-factor model for samples of young children with ASD. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Large-scale continuous-variable dual-rail cluster entangled state based on spatial mode comb.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J; Wang, J J; Yang, R G; Liu, K; Gao, J R

    2017-10-30

    In recent continuous-variable (CV) multipartite entanglement researches, the number of fully inseparable light modes has been increased dramatically by the introduction of a multiplexing scheme in either the time domain or the frequency domain. In this paper, we propose a scheme that a large-scale (≥ 20) CV dual-rail cluster entangled state is established based on a spatial mode comb in a self-imaging optical parametric oscillator, which is pumped by two spatial Laguerre-Gaussian modes with different polarization and identical frequency. A sufficient condition of full inseparability for a CV dual-rail cluster entangled state is used to evaluate the degree of quantum entanglement. It is shown that entanglement exists over a wide range of analyzing frequency and pump parameter. We have found a new scheme that uses the optical parametric cavity to generate a large-scale entanglement based on optical spatial mode comb. The presented system will be hopefully as a practical entangled source for quantum information.

  11. The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pourasghar, Farnaz; Jahanbakhsh, Saeed; Sari Sarraf, Behrooz [The University of Tabriz, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Tozuka, Tomoki [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Ghaemi, Hooshang [Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Yamagata, Toshio [The University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, Tokyo (Japan); Application Laboratory/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Kanagawa (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974-2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. (orig.)

  12. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  13. Hydrological impacts of the small scale rainfall variability in an urban catchment: CALAMAR vs. X-band radar data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves de Souza, Bianca; da Silva Rocha Paz, Igor; Ichiba, Abdellah; Gires, Auguste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Increasing urbanization and population density makes dealing with extreme weather events more difficult notably with regards to flood risks and more generally to storm water management. Such challenge requires the development and practical implementation of new technologies and methods. An example is weather radar which has been increasingly applied to hydrological modelling due to their unique ability to grasp both the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall fields. In this paper 6 radar rainfall products available over the Paris region are compared: CALAMAR and five different X-band radar data products. The first has a resolution of 1 km in space and 5 min in time and is a product provided by RHEA SAS using single polarimetric raw data of a local C-band radar operated by Météo-France and real time adjustment with a network of rain gauges..The latter are obtained from the radar operated by École des Ponts ParisTech currently providing data with a resolution of 250 m in space and 3.4 min in time. Rainfall fields are then inputted in the fully distributed model Multi-Hydro. It is done over a 6.2 km2 urban and peri-urban catchment located in Massy, south of Paris. Simulated outputs are then compared to actual water level measurement in storage basins. Three rainfall events that occurred in May and June 2016 are tested in this study. The comparison of the simulated hydrographs obtained with different inputs illustrates the benefits of a higher resolution for rainfall fields. The impact of the small-scale variability not measured by the CALAMAR data is quantified, as well as the hydrological consequences of the use of various radar algorithms over the same raw radar data. These results highlight the need to use the data available with the higher resolution such as the one operationally provided by X-band radars, as well as to use it better, i.e. notably with models able to take into account the newly observed small scale rainfall variability.

  14. Examining the Variability of Sleep Patterns during Treatment for Chronic Insomnia: Application of a Location-Scale Mixed Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Jason C; Hedeker, Donald; Wyatt, James K; Manber, Rachel

    2016-06-15

    The purpose of this study was to introduce a novel statistical technique called the location-scale mixed model that can be used to analyze the mean level and intra-individual variability (IIV) using longitudinal sleep data. We applied the location-scale mixed model to examine changes from baseline in sleep efficiency on data collected from 54 participants with chronic insomnia who were randomized to an 8-week Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR; n = 19), an 8-week Mindfulness-Based Therapy for Insomnia (MBTI; n = 19), or an 8-week self-monitoring control (SM; n = 16). Sleep efficiency was derived from daily sleep diaries collected at baseline (days 1-7), early treatment (days 8-21), late treatment (days 22-63), and post week (days 64-70). The behavioral components (sleep restriction, stimulus control) were delivered during late treatment in MBTI. For MBSR and MBTI, the pre-to-post change in mean levels of sleep efficiency were significantly larger than the change in mean levels for the SM control, but the change in IIV was not significantly different. During early and late treatment, MBSR showed a larger increase in mean levels of sleep efficiency and a larger decrease in IIV relative to the SM control. At late treatment, MBTI had a larger increase in the mean level of sleep efficiency compared to SM, but the IIV was not significantly different. The location-scale mixed model provides a two-dimensional analysis on the mean and IIV using longitudinal sleep diary data with the potential to reveal insights into treatment mechanisms and outcomes. © 2016 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

  15. Large-scale simulation of karst processes - parameter estimation, model evaluation and quantification of uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    Heterogeneity is an intrinsic property of karst systems. It results in complex hydrological behavior that is characterized by an interplay of diffuse and concentrated flow and transport. In large-scale hydrological models, these processes are usually not considered. Instead average or representative values are chosen for each of the simulated grid cells omitting many aspects of their sub-grid variability. In karst regions, this may lead to unreliable predictions when those models are used for assessing future water resources availability, floods or droughts, or when they are used for recommendations for more sustainable water management. In this contribution I present a large-scale groundwater recharge model (0.25° x 0.25° resolution) that takes into karst hydrological processes by using statistical distribution functions to express subsurface heterogeneity. The model is applied over Europe's and the Mediterranean's carbonate rock regions ( 25% of the total area). As no measurements of the variability of subsurface properties are available at this scale, a parameter estimation procedure, which uses latent heat flux and soil moisture observations and quantifies the remaining uncertainty, was applied. The model is evaluated by sensitivity analysis, comparison to other large-scale models without karst processes included and independent recharge observations. Using with historic data (2002-2012) I can show that recharge rates vary strongly over Europe and the Mediterranean. At regions with low information for parameter estimation there is a larger prediction uncertainty (for instance in desert regions). Evaluation with independent recharge estimates shows that, on average, the model provides acceptable estimates, while the other large scale models under-estimate karstic recharge. The results of the sensitivity analysis corroborate the importance of including karst heterogeneity into the model as the distribution shape factor is the most sensitive parameter for

  16. Temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at seasonal and interannual time scales in a temperate beech forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Campioli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The allocation of carbon (C taken up by the tree canopy for respiration and production of tree organs with different construction and maintenance costs, life span and decomposition rate, crucially affects the residence time of C in forests and their C cycling rate. The carbon-use efficiency, or ratio between net primary production (NPP and gross primary production (GPP, represents a convenient way to analyse the C allocation at the stand level. In this study, we extend the current knowledge on the NPP-GPP ratio in forests by assessing the temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at interannual (for 8 years and seasonal (for 1 year scales for a young temperate beech stand, reporting dynamics for both leaves and woody organs, in particular stems. NPP was determined with biometric methods/litter traps, whereas the GPP was estimated via the eddy covariance micrometeorological technique.

    The interannual variability of the proportion of C allocated to leaf NPP, wood NPP and leaf plus wood NPP (on average 11% yr−1, 29% yr−1 and 39% yr−1, respectively was significant among years with up to 12% yr−1 variation in NPP-GPP ratio. Studies focusing on the comparison of NPP-GPP ratio among forests and models using fixed allocation schemes should take into account the possibility of such relevant interannual variability. Multiple linear regressions indicated that the NPP-GPP ratio of leaves and wood significantly correlated with environmental conditions. Previous year drought and air temperature explained about half of the NPP-GPP variability of leaves and wood, respectively, whereas the NPP-GPP ratio was not decreased by severe drought, with large NPP-GPP ratio on 2003 due mainly to low GPP. During the period between early May and mid June, the majority of GPP was allocated to leaf and stem NPP, whereas these sinks were of little importance later on. Improved estimation of seasonal GPP and of the

  17. Large scale hydrological studies for the benefit of water resources management - looking up or down?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tallaksen, Lena M.

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological information at the macro scale has become increasingly available through the establishment of global archives of hydrological observations (e.g. the Global Runoff Data Centre) and the development of hydrological models for the purpose of water resource assessments and climate change impact studies at the global and continental scale. As such, it has contributed to improved knowledge of the present state of global water resources and variability across large spatial domains, the role of terrestrial hydrology in earth system models and the influence of climate variability and change on continental hydrology, including extremes. Recent advances include among other, improved representation of subsurface hydrology and land-surface atmosphere feedback processes. Models are further adapted to multiple sources of input data, including remote sensing products, which in turn has facilitated the development of global and continental scale flood and drought monitoring and forecasting systems (e.g. the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System). Nevertheless, there are several challenges related to large-scale modelling due to limited data for ground truth (e.g. soil moisture, groundwater, streamflow), large differences in data availability and quality across regions, sub grid variability, downscaled and bias-corrected climate data as driving force, etc. Limitations that have questioned the usefulness of large-scale model simulations for water resource management and policy making at various scales. Still, one can argue that such models represent a useful source of information, particular for continental-scale hydrological assessments and evidence-based policy making at the EU level, as up-to-date, consistent hydrological data are not easily available across national borders. Transfer of knowledge across scales is essential to improve hydrologic predictions at different spatial scales in an ever

  18. Using satellite-based measurements to explore spatiotemporal scales and variability of drivers of new particle formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, R. C.; Crippa, P.; Hallar, A. G.; Clarisse, L.; Whitburn, S.; Van Damme, M.; Leaitch, W. R.; Walker, J. T.; Khlystov, A.; Pryor, S. C.

    2016-10-01

    New particle formation (NPF) can potentially alter regional climate by increasing aerosol particle (hereafter particle) number concentrations and ultimately cloud condensation nuclei. The large scales on which NPF is manifest indicate potential to use satellite-based (inherently spatially averaged) measurements of atmospheric conditions to diagnose the occurrence of NPF and NPF characteristics. We demonstrate the potential for using satellite-based measurements of insolation (UV), trace gas concentrations (sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ammonia (NH3), formaldehyde (HCHO), and ozone (O3)), aerosol optical properties (aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE)), and a proxy of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (leaf area index (LAI) and temperature (T)) as predictors for NPF characteristics: formation rates, growth rates, survival probabilities, and ultrafine particle (UFP) concentrations at five locations across North America. NPF at all sites is most frequent in spring, exhibits a one-day autocorrelation, and is associated with low condensational sink (AOD × AE) and HCHO concentrations, and high UV. However, there are important site-to-site variations in NPF frequency and characteristics, and in which of the predictor variables (particularly gas concentrations) significantly contribute to the explanatory power of regression models built to predict those characteristics. This finding may provide a partial explanation for the reported spatial variability in skill of simple generalized nucleation schemes in reproducing observed NPF. In contrast to more simple proxies developed in prior studies (e.g., based on AOD, AE, SO2, and UV), use of additional predictors (NO2, NH3, HCHO, LAI, T, and O3) increases the explained temporal variance of UFP concentrations at all sites.

  19. Variability of atmospheric greenhouse gases as a biogeochemical processing signal at regional scale in a karstic ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borràs, Sílvia; Vazquez, Eusebi; Morguí, Josep-Anton; Àgueda, Alba; Batet, Oscar; Cañas, Lídia; Curcoll, Roger; Grossi, Claudia; Nofuentes, Manel; Occhipinti, Paola; Rodó, Xavier

    2015-04-01

    The South-eastern area of the Iberian Peninsula is an area where climatic conditions reach extreme climatic conditions during the year, and is also heavily affected by the ENSO and NAO. The Natural Park of Cazorla, Segura de la Sierra and Las Villas is located in this region, and it is the largest protected natural area in Spain (209920 Ha). This area is characterized by important climatic and hydrologic contrasts: although the mean annual precipitation is 770 nm, the karstic soils are the main cause for water scarcity during the summer months, while on the other hand it is in this area where the two main rivers of Southern Spain, the Segura and the Guadalquivir, are born. The protected area comprises many forested landscapes, karstic areas and reservoirs like Tranco de Beas. The temperatures during summer are high, with over 40°C heatwaves occurring each year. But during the winter months, the land surface can be covered by snow for periods of time up until 30 days. The ENSO and NAO influences cause also an important inter annual climatic variability in this area. Under the ENSO, autumnal periods are more humid while the following spring is drier. In this area vegetal Mediterranean communities are dominant. But there are also a high number of endemic species and derelict species typical of temperate climate. Therefore it is a protected area with high specific diversity. Additionally, there is an important agricultural activity in the fringe areas of the Natural Park, mainly for olive production, while inside the Park this activity is focused on mountain wheat production. Therefore the diverse vegetal communities and landscapes can easily be under extreme climatic pressures, affecting in turn the biogeochemical processes at the regional scale. The constant, high-frequency monitoring of greenhouse gases (GHG) (CO2 and CH4) integrates the biogeochemical signal of changes in this area related to the carbon cycle at the regional scale, capturing the high diversity of

  20. Relations between Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-A scales and Rorschach variables with the scope and severity of maltreatment among adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perfect, Michelle M; Tharinger, Deborah J; Keith, Timothy Z; Lyle-Lahroud, Teresa

    2011-11-01

    This study examined preexisting Rorschach (Exner, 2001) and Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-A (MMPI-A; Butcher et al., 1992) profiles to determine if selected MMPI-A scales and Rorschach variables would jointly associate with the number and severity of maltreatment subtypes (physical abuse, sexual abuse, neglect, and emotional maltreatment) of 157 adolescents (ages 14-17) with documented maltreatment histories. The Maltreatment Classification System was used to systematically code the maltreatment attributes. Six Rorschach variables (MOR, PER, Afr, SumY, SumC', Human Content) were significantly correlated with the number of maltreatment subtypes, but none of the anticipated MMPI-A scales were related. MMPI-A Scale 7 and Rorschach variables Ego, MOR, and PER were jointly associated with physical abuse severity. MMPI-A Scale 0 and Rorschach variables MOR, PER, SumY, SumC', PTI, Human Content, and Texture jointly associated with sexual abuse severity. This study supports the potential for certain MMPI-A scales and Rorschach variables to reflect the impact of adolescents' maltreatment experiences in terms of the number and severity of types of maltreatment experienced. Because both instruments captured different aspects of adolescents' maltreatment experiences, clinicians should consider using both when evaluating the impact of maltreatment on adolescents.

  1. Cm-scale Heterogeneity in Degradation - Potential Impact on Leaching of MCPA through a Variably-Saturated Macroporous Clayey Till

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbom, A. E.; Johnsen, A. R.; Aamand, J.; Binning, P. J.; Dechesne, A.; Smets, B. F.; "Cream-Spatial Heterogeneity"-Team

    2011-12-01

    Recent research has revealed a large variation in pesticide mineralization potentials, but little is known about the scale at which these heterogeneities impact the spreading of contaminants. A modeling study aiming at quantifying how heterogeneous degradation potentials in agricultural soil will affect MCPA degradation and leaching was conducted. 2D-distributions (96-well micro plate mineralization assay) of the mineralization potentials of phenoxy acid herbicides (MCPA, 2,4-D) representing layers in the upper meter of variably-saturated clayey till were applied. The rapid mineralization measured was represented by Monod mineralization kinetics, whereas the rest were either represented by slow 0-order mineralization kinetics or no degradation. Five 3D-modelling scenarios were set up using the COMSOL Multiphysics 4.1 toolbox (COMSOL Inc., Burlington, MA, USA): 1) simple matrix flow of water with no biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes; 2) preferential flow (including a wormhole) of water with no biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes; 3) simple matrix flow of water with average biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes, which corresponds to results derived from a conventional homogenized soil sample; 4) simple matrix flow of water with the observed high variation in biodegradation of the MCPA corresponding to random variation in degradation; and 5) vertical structure in water flow combined with vertically structured degradation (defined hot spots and cold spots), which corresponds to a situation where both flow and degradation are associated with macropores/wormholes. Results show that cm-scale heterogeneity in degradation potential with simple matrix flow has a negligible effect on MCPA leaching at one meter below soil surface. By introducing a wormhole in the low-permeable 3D-soil modeling domain, however, the risk of MCPA-leaching below one meter depth increase drastically with low degradation potential along the wall of macropores/wormholes.

  2. Assessment of Heart Rate Variability during an Endurance Mountain Trail Race by Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Vallverdú

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to analyze heart rate variability (HRV response to high-intensity exercise during a 35-km mountain trail race and to ascertain whether fitness level could influence autonomic nervous system (ANS modulation. Time-domain, frequency-domain, and multi-scale entropy (MSE indexes were calculated for eleven mountain-trail runners who completed the race. Many changes were observed, mostly related to exercise load and fatigue. These changes were characterized by increased mean values and standard deviations of the normal-to-normal intervals associated with sympathetic activity, and by decreased differences between successive intervals related to parasympathetic activity. Normalized low frequency (LF power suggested that ANS modulation varied greatly during the race and between individuals. Normalized high frequency (HF power, associated with parasympathetic activity, varied considerably over the race, and tended to decrease at the final stages, whereas changes in the LF/HF ratio corresponded to intervals with varying exercise load. MSE indexes, related to system complexity, indicated the existence of many interactions between the heart and its neurological control mechanism. The time-domain, frequency-domain, and MSE indexes were also able to discriminate faster from slower runners, mainly in the more difficult and in the final stages of the race. These findings suggest the use of HRV analysis to study cardiac function mechanisms in endurance sports.

  3. Droughts and broad-scale climate variability reflected by temperature-sensitive tree growth in the Qinling Mountains, central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Na; Liu, Yu; Zhou, Qi; Bao, Guang

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between temperature and drought was investigated using the temperature-sensitive growth of Larix chinensis Beissn in the Qinling Mountains, central China. Extremely high tree-ring width index values (TRWI) agreed well with dry conditions defined by the dryness-wetness index (DWI) obtained from data in Chinese historical documents and climate-related papers between 1814 and 1956 (before the short of instrumental measurements); the reverse applied to extremely low TRWI values. The main severe drought epochs occurred from the late 1850s to the 1870s, the 1920s to 1930s and in the 2000s, whereas wet spells occurred from 1817-1827 and 1881-1886. The droughts in the 2000s exhibited a similar pattern as the ones from the 1920s to 1930s, with obviously an increasing temperature. The variation of tree growth agreed well with other reconstructed temperature series from nearby and remote regions, suggesting that Larix chinensis could respond to broad-scale climate variability. The longest cold interval, 1817-1827, could be associated with the influence of the Tambora eruption in 1815.

  4. Variability of cloud-free ultraviolet dose rates on global scale due to modeled scenarios of future ozone recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazantzidis, Andreas; Tourpali, Kleareti; Bais, Alkiviadis F

    2010-01-01

    Simulations of the total ozone content and vertical ozone and temperature profiles during the period 1980-2080 from three chemistry climate models (CCMs) were used and the future variability of five UV dose rate types in global scale was simulated. For each CCM, radiative transfer calculations for cloud-free skies and constant values of aerosol optical properties and surface reflectivity were performed and the percentage difference, relative to the mean over the period 1996-2005, was calculated. The potential biological consequences of ozone recovery are quantified due to the different influence of ozone-absorbing wavelengths on the selected UV action spectra: average percentage differences between a few and 60% are revealed during the 2070s, depending on the latitude zone and the season. Although the research into the prediction of UV radiation levels is ongoing, due to the possible future changes in cloudiness, aerosols or surface reflectivity, the long-term changes in ozone, as projected by the CCMs in a similar way, will affect strongly some of the selected UV dose rates in the future.

  5. Multi-scale approach to the environmental factors effects on spatio-temporal variability of Chironomus salinarius (Diptera: Chironomidae) in a French coastal lagoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartier, V.; Claret, C.; Garnier, R.; Fayolle, S.; Franquet, E.

    2010-03-01

    The complexity of the relationships between environmental factors and organisms can be revealed by sampling designs which consider the contribution to variability of different temporal and spatial scales, compared to total variability. From a management perspective, a multi-scale approach can lead to time-saving. Identifying environmental patterns that help maintain patchy distribution is fundamental in studying coastal lagoons, transition zones between continental and marine waters characterised by great environmental variability on spatial and temporal scales. They often present organic enrichment inducing decreased species richness and increased densities of opportunist species like C hironomus salinarius, a common species that tends to swarm and thus constitutes a nuisance for human populations. This species is dominant in the Bolmon lagoon, a French Mediterranean coastal lagoon under eutrophication. Our objective was to quantify variability due to both spatial and temporal scales and identify the contribution of different environmental factors to this variability. The population of C. salinarius was sampled from June 2007 to June 2008 every two months at 12 sites located in two areas of the Bolmon lagoon, at two different depths, with three sites per area-depth combination. Environmental factors (temperature, dissolved oxygen both in sediment and under water surface, sediment organic matter content and grain size) and microbial activities (i.e. hydrolase activities) were also considered as explanatory factors of chironomid densities and distribution. ANOVA analysis reveals significant spatial differences regarding the distribution of chironomid larvae for the area and the depth scales and their interaction. The spatial effect is also revealed for dissolved oxygen (water), salinity and fine particles (area scale), and for water column depth. All factors but water column depth show a temporal effect. Spearman's correlations highlight the seasonal effect

  6. Final Report. Evaluating the Climate Sensitivity of Dissipative Subgrid-Scale Mixing Processes and Variable Resolution in NCAR's Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jablonowski, Christiane [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2015-12-14

    The goals of this project were to (1) assess and quantify the sensitivity and scale-dependency of unresolved subgrid-scale mixing processes in NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM), and (2) to improve the accuracy and skill of forthcoming CESM configurations on modern cubed-sphere and variable-resolution computational grids. The research thereby contributed to the description and quantification of uncertainties in CESM’s dynamical cores and their physics-dynamics interactions.

  7. Variable-Resolution Ensemble Climatology Modeling of Sierra Nevada Snowpack within the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Levy, M.; Taylor, M.

    2014-12-01

    Snowpack is crucial for the western USA, providing around 75% of the total fresh water supply (Cayan et al., 1996) and buffering against seasonal aridity impacts on agricultural, ecosystem, and urban water demands. The resilience of the California water system is largely dependent on natural stores provided by snowpack. This resilience has shown vulnerabilities due to anthropogenic global climate change. Historically, the northern Sierras showed a net decline of 50-75% in snow water equivalent (SWE) while the southern Sierras showed a net accumulation of 30% (Mote et al., 2005). Future trends of SWE highlight that western USA SWE may decline by 40-70% (Pierce and Cayan, 2013), snowfall may decrease by 25-40% (Pierce and Cayan, 2013), and more winter storms may tend towards rain rather than snow (Bales et al., 2006). The volatility of Sierran snowpack presents a need for scientific tools to help water managers and policy makers assess current and future trends. A burgeoning tool to analyze these trends comes in the form of variable-resolution global climate modeling (VRGCM). VRGCMs serve as a bridge between regional and global models and provide added resolution in areas of need, eliminate lateral boundary forcings, provide model runtime speed up, and utilize a common dynamical core, physics scheme and sub-grid scale parameterization package. A cubed-sphere variable-resolution grid with 25 km horizontal resolution over the western USA was developed for use in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A 25-year three-member ensemble climatology (1980-2005) is presented and major snowpack metrics such as SWE, snow depth, snow cover, and two-meter surface temperature are assessed. The ensemble simulation is also compared to observational, reanalysis, and WRF model datasets. The variable-resolution model provides a mechanism for reaching towards non-hydrostatic scales and simulations are currently being developed with refined

  8. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2013-11-04

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode

  9. Spatiotemporal Variability of Turbulence Kinetic Energy Budgets in the Convective Boundary Layer over Both Simple and Complex Terrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rai, Raj K. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Berg, Larry K. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Pekour, Mikhail [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Shaw, William J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Kosovic, Branko [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; Mirocha, Jeffrey D. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California; Ennis, Brandon L. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico

    2017-12-01

    The assumption of sub-grid scale (SGS) horizontal homogeneity within a model grid cell, which forms the basis of SGS turbulence closures used by mesoscale models, becomes increasingly tenuous as grid spacing is reduced to a few kilometers or less, such as in many emerging high-resolution applications. Herein, we use the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) budget equation to study the spatio-temporal variability in two types of terrain—complex (Columbia Basin Wind Energy Study [CBWES] site, north-eastern Oregon) and flat (ScaledWind Farm Technologies [SWiFT] site, west Texas) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each case six-nested domains (three domains each for mesoscale and large-eddy simulation [LES]) are used to downscale the horizontal grid spacing from 10 km to 10 m using the WRF model framework. The model output was used to calculate the values of the TKE budget terms in vertical and horizontal planes as well as the averages of grid cells contained in the four quadrants (a quarter area) of the LES domain. The budget terms calculated along the planes and the mean profile of budget terms show larger spatial variability at CBWES site than at the SWiFT site. The contribution of the horizontal derivative of the shear production term to the total production shear was found to be 45% and 15% of the total shear, at the CBWES and SWiFT sites, respectively, indicating that the horizontal derivatives applied in the budget equation should not be ignored in mesoscale model parameterizations, especially for cases with complex terrain with <10 km scale.

  10. Late Holocene climate change in the western Mediterranean: centennial-scale vegetation and North Atlantic Oscillation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos Román, M. J.; Jimenez-Moreno, G.; Anderson, R. S.; García-Alix, A.; Toney, J. L.; Jiménez-Espejo, F. J. J.; Carrión, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Sediments from alpine peat bogs and lakes from the Sierra Nevada in southeastern Spain (western Mediterranean area) have been very informative in terms of how vegetation and wetland environments were impacted by past climate change. Recently, many studies try to find out the relationship between solar activity, atmosphere and ocean dynamics and changes in the terrestrial environments. The Mediterranean is a very sensitive area with respect to atmospheric dynamics due to (1) its location, right in the boundary between subtropical and temperate climate systems and (2) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the main mechanism that influence present climate in this area. Here we present a multi-proxy high-resolution study from Borreguil de la Caldera (BdlC), a peat bog that records the last ca. 4500 cal yr BP of vegetation, fire, human impact and climate history from the Sierra Nevada. The pollen, charcoal and non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) reconstruction in the BdlC-01 record evidence relative humidity changes in the last millennia interrupting the late Holocene aridification trend. This study shows a relative arid period between ca. 4000 and 3100 cal yr BP; the Iberian Roman humid period (ca. 2600 to 1600 cal yr BP); a relative arid period during the Dark Ages (from ca. AD 500 to AD 900) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (from ca. AD 900 to ca. AD 1300) and predominantly wetter conditions corresponding with The Little Ice Age period (from ca. AD 1300 to AD 1850). This climate variability could be explained by centennial scale changes in the NAO and solar activity.

  11. Long-term variability of the South Adriatic circulation and phytoplankton biomass in relation to large-scale climatic pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabrang, L.; Menna, M.; Pizzi, C.; Lavigne, H.; Civitarese, G.; Gačić, M.

    2015-02-01

    The interannual variability of the South Adriatic Gyre and its relation to the wind vorticity and the large-scale climatic pattern (North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), was studied using the time-series of satellite altimetry data and ocean surface wind products. The cyclonic circulation observed in the South Adriatic area was mainly sustained by the local wind forcing, as suggested by the positive correlation between the rate of change of the current vorticity and the wind-stress vorticity. Nevertheless, the influence of vorticity advection from the adjacent area (North Ionian Sea) cannot be ignored and it is more significant during the anticyclonic phase of Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillation System. The geostrophic current vorticities of the South Adriatic and North Ionian Seas are correlated with a time lag of 15 months, which corresponds to an advection speed of ~1 cm s-1. The different wind patterns observed during the two NAO phases revealed a stronger positive vorticity during the negative NAO phase. Conversely, during the positive NAO phase the wind vorticity is characterized by lower positive values. Subsequently, the calculated positive linear correlation between the NAO index and the frequency of the cold and dry northerly wind suggests the strengthening of the winter convection, and of the consecutive deep water formation, during the positive NAO phases. As a consequence of the winter deep convection, Southern Adriatic area is characterized by the late winter/early spring algal blooms. Relationship between the spatially averaged surface chlorophyll concentrations and the northerly wind frequencies revealed that the two biological productivity regimes likely exist: the subtropical one and the subpolar one depending on the frequency of windy days. We also showed that the bloom timing is a linear function of the wind frequency and can vary within the range of almost two months. This study thus contributes to our understanding of the possible impact of

  12. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) at variable resolutions for enhanced watershed scale Soil Sampling and Digital Soil Mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamalainen, Sampsa; Geng, Xiaoyuan; He, Juanxia

    2017-04-01

    Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) at variable resolutions for enhanced watershed scale Soil Sampling and Digital Soil Mapping. Sampsa Hamalainen, Xiaoyuan Geng, and Juanxia, He. AAFC - Agriculture and Agr-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) approach to assist with Digital Soil Mapping has been developed for some time now, however the purpose of this work was to complement LHS with use of multiple spatial resolutions of covariate datasets and variability in the range of sampling points produced. This allowed for specific sets of LHS points to be produced to fulfil the needs of various partners from multiple projects working in the Ontario and Prince Edward Island provinces of Canada. Secondary soil and environmental attributes are critical inputs that are required in the development of sampling points by LHS. These include a required Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and subsequent covariate datasets produced as a result of a Digital Terrain Analysis performed on the DEM. These additional covariates often include but are not limited to Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Length-Slope (LS) Factor, and Slope which are continuous data. The range of specific points created in LHS included 50 - 200 depending on the size of the watershed and more importantly the number of soil types found within. The spatial resolution of covariates included within the work ranged from 5 - 30 m. The iterations within the LHS sampling were run at an optimal level so the LHS model provided a good spatial representation of the environmental attributes within the watershed. Also, additional covariates were included in the Latin Hypercube Sampling approach which is categorical in nature such as external Surficial Geology data. Some initial results of the work include using a 1000 iteration variable within the LHS model. 1000 iterations was consistently a reasonable value used to produce sampling points that provided a good spatial representation of the environmental

  13. Reconsideration of the Listening Skill Scale: Comparison of the Listening Skills of the Students of Psychological Counseling and Guidance in Accordance with Various Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cihangir-Cankaya, Zeynep

    2012-01-01

    There are two main objectives of this study: The first is to reconsider the Listening Skill Scale and the second is to compare the levels of students of counseling and guidance according to the situations of whether they took the courses including the listening skills and to gender variable. In accordance with these objectives, the data obtained…

  14. Turbulent viscosity and scale laws in turbulent jets with variable density; Viscosite turbulente et lois d`echelles dans les jets turbulents a masse volumique variable

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietri, L.; Amielh, M.; Anselmet, F.; Fulachier, L. [Institut de Recherche sur les Phinomenes Hors Equilibre Equipe Turbulence, 13 - Marseille (France)

    1997-12-31

    Turbulent flows with strong density variations, like helium jets in the ambient air, have specific properties linked with the difference of gas densities. This paper presents some experimental results of turbulence properties inside such flows: the Reynolds tensions and the associated turbulent viscosity, and some characteristics linked with the statistical properties of the different turbulence scales. These last results allows to show the complexity of such flows characterized by the influence of external parameters (Reynolds number, initial density ratio, initial momentum flux) that govern the evolution of these parameters inside the jet from the nozzle up to regions where similarity properties are reached. (J.S.) 12 refs.

  15. Using scaling factors for evaluating spatial and temporal variability of soil hydraulic properties within one elevation transect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikodem, Antonín; Kodešová, Radka; Jakšík, Ondřej; Fér, Miroslav; Klement, Aleš

    2016-04-01

    This study was carried out in Southern Moravia, in the Czech Republic. The original soil unit in the wider area is a Haplic Chernozem developed on loess. The intensive agricultural exploitation in combination with terrain morphology has resulted in a highly diversified soil spatial pattern. Nowadays the original soil unit is preserved only on top of relatively flat parts, and is gradually transformed by water erosion up to Regosols on the steepest slopes, while colluvial soils are formed in terrain depressions and at toe slopes due to sedimentation of previously eroded material. Soils within this area has been intensively investigated during the last several years (e.g. Jakšík et al., 2015; Vašát et al., 2014, 2015a,b). Soil sampling (disturbed and undisturbed 100-cm3 soil samples) was performed at 5 points of one elevation transect in November 2010 (after wheat sowing) and August 2011 (after wheat harvest). Disturbed soil samples were used to determine basic soil properties (grain size distribution and organic carbon content etc.). Undisturbed soil samples were used to determine the soil water retention curves and the hydraulic conductivity functions using the multiple outflow tests in Tempe cells and a numerical inversion with HYDRUS 1-D. Scaling factors (alpha-h for pressure head, alpha-theta for soil water contents and alpha-k for hydraulic conductivities) were used here to express soil hydraulic properties variability. Evaluated scaling factors reflected position within the elevation transect as well as time of soil sampling. In general large values of alpha-h, lower values of alpha-k and similar values of alpha-theta were obtained in 2010 in comparison to values obtained in 2011, which indicates development of soil structure during the vegetation season. Jakšík, O., Kodešová, R., Kubiš, A., Stehlíková, I., Drábek, O., Kapička, A. (2015): Soil aggregate stability within morphologically diverse areas. Catena, 127, 287-299. Vašát, R., Kode

  16. Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

    2014-01-01

    In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology

  17. Reco level Smin and subsystem Smin: improved global inclusive variables for measuring the new physics mass scale in MET events at hadron colliders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konar, Partha; /Florida U.; Kong, Kyoungchul; /SLAC; Matchev, Konstantin T.; Park, Myeonghun; /Florida U.

    2011-08-11

    The variable {radical}s{sub min} was originally proposed in [1] as a model-independent, global and fully inclusive measure of the new physics mass scale in missing energy events at hadron colliders. In the original incarnation of {radical}s{sub min}, however, the connection to the new physics mass scale was blurred by the effects of the underlying event, most notably initial state radiation and multiple parton interactions. In this paper we advertize two improved variants of the {radical}s{sub min} variable, which overcome this problem. First we show that by evaluating the {radical}s{sub min} variable at the RECO level, in terms of the reconstructed objects in the event, the effects from the underlying event are significantly diminished and the nice correlation between the peak in the {radical}s{sub min}{sup (reco)} distribution and the new physics mass scale is restored. Secondly, the underlying event problem can be avoided altogether when the {radical}s{sub min} concept is applied to a subsystem of the event which does not involve any QCD jets. We supply an analytic formula for the resulting subsystem {radical}s{sub min}{sup (sub)} variable and show that its peak exhibits the usual correlation with the mass scale of the particles produced in the subsystem. Finally, we contrast {radical}s{sub min} to other popular inclusive variables such as H{sub T}, M{sub Tgen} and M{sub TTgen}. We illustrate our discussion with several examples from supersymmetry, and with dilepton events from top quark pair production.

  18. Utility-scale variable-speed wind turbines using a doubly-fed generator with a soft-switching power converter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weigand, C.H.; Lauw, H.K.; Marckx, D.A. [Electronic Power Conditioning, Inc., Corvallis, OR (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Utility-scale wind turbines operating at variable RPM have been studied for a considerable period of time. Whereas the increase in energy output originally has been considered the principal benefit of variable-speed operation, the ability to tightly control the drive-train torque by electronic means is becoming another very important cost factor, especially for turbine ratings above 500 kilowatts. This cost benefit becomes even more significant as optimum turbine ratings today are approaching (and surpassing) 1 Megawatt. Having identified the benefits for the turbine, the designer is confronted with the task of finding the most cost-effective variable-speed generation system which allows him to make use of the benefits, yet does not introduce well-known electrical problems associated with state-of-the-art variable-speed generator controls, such as drastically reduced generator winding life, excessive harmonics on the utility, and poor utility power factor. This paper will indicate that for high-power (> 500 kW), utility-scale wind turbines a doubly-fed generator system in connection with a soft-switching resonant power converter is the least-cost variable-speed generation system offering all of the desired benefits, yet avoids the introduction of the potential electrical problems stated above. 3 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Persistent decadal-scale rainfall variability in the tropical South Pacific Convergence Zone through the past six centuries

    OpenAIRE

    Maupin, C. R.; Partin, J. W.; Shen, C.-C.; Quinn, T. M.; Lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.; Banner, J. L.; Thirumalai, K.; Sinclair, D. J.

    2014-01-01

    Modern Pacific decadal variability (PDV) has global impacts; hence records of PDV from the pre-instrumental period are needed to better inform models that are used to project future climate variability. We focus here on reconstructing rainfall in the western tropical Pacific (Solomon Islands; ~ 9.5° S, ~160° E), a region directly influenced by PDV, using cave deposits (stalagmite). A relationship is developed between δ18O variations in the stalagmite and local rainfall am...

  20. Factorial kriging and stepwise regression approach to identify environmental factors influencing spatial multi-scale variability of heavy metals in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Jianshu; Liu, Yang; Zhang, Zulu; Dai, Jierui

    2013-10-15

    The knowledge about spatial variations of heavy metals in soils and their relationships with environmental factors is important for human impact assessment and soil management. Surface soils from Rizhao city, Eastern China with rapid urbanization and industrialization were analyzed for six key heavy metals and characterized by parent material and land use using GIS-based data. Factorial kriging analysis and stepwise multiple regression were applied to examine the scale-dependent relationships among heavy metals and to identify environmental factors affecting spatial variability at each spatial scale. Linear model of coregionalization fitting showed that spatial multi-scale variation of heavy metals in soils consisted of nugget effect, an exponential structure with the range of 12 km (short-range scale), as well as a spherical structure with the range of 36 km (long-range scale). The short-range variation of Cd, Pb and Zn were controlled by land use, with higher values in urban areas as well as cultivated land in mountain area, and were related to human influence; while parent material dominated the long structure variations of these elements. Spatial variations of Cr and Ni were associated with natural geochemical sources at short- and long-range scales. At both two scales, Hg dominated by land use, corresponded well to spatial distributions of urban areas, and was attributed to anthropic emissions and atmosphere deposition. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Space and time scales of sea surface salinity and freshwater forcing variability in the global ocean (60°S-60°N)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bingham, Frederick M.; Lee, Tong

    2017-04-01

    Using Aquarius Version-4.0 data, we have investigated the time and space scales of sea surface salinity (SSS) over the global ocean between 60°S and 60°N. Decorrelation time scales of SSS were found to be divided among less than 80 days (covering 1/2 of ocean area), 80-100 days (1/3), and greater than 100 days (remainder). Once the seasonal cycle is removed, shorter time scales (less than 80 days) dominate. Spatial scales are largest in the tropics along the intertropical convergence zones of all oceans and the South Pacific convergence zone in the South Pacific. Time scales were also calculated for time-integrated (cumulative) surface freshwater forcing (CFWF) using precipitation from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission and evaporation from OAFlux data. These showed little spatial pattern, but a dominance of the seasonal and longer time scales over the globe. The lack of correspondence between dominant temporal and spatial scales of SSS and CFWF highlights the importance of ocean processes in regulating SSS variability.

  2. Using satellite-based measurements to explore spatiotemporal scales and variability of drivers of new particle formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    New particle formation (NPF) can potentially alter regional climate by increasing aerosol particle (hereafter particle) number concentrations and ultimately cloud condensation nuclei. The large scales on which NPF is manifest indicate potential to use satellite-based (inherently ...

  3. Century-scale Changes in Environmental Synchrony and Variability and their Effects on Populations of Birds and Reproduction of Trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenig, W.

    2016-12-01

    The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. Thus far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in environmental spatial synchrony-the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape-or environmental variability, despite the importance of these factors as drivers of population rescue and extinction and reproductive dynamics of both animal and plant populations. We quantified spatial synchrony of widespread North American wintering birds species using Audubon Christmas Bird Counts over the past 50 years and seed set variability (mast fruiting) among trees over the past century and found that both spatial synchrony of the birds and seed set variability have significantly increased over these time periods. The first of these results was mirrored by significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature across North America, primarily during the summer, while the second is consistent with the hypothesis that climate change is resulting in greater seed set variability. These findings suggest the potential for temporal changes in envioronmental synchrony and variability to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena by influencing the probability of population rescue and extinction and by affecting ecosystem processes that rely on the resource pulses provided by mast fruiting plants.

  4. Hydrological response of karst systems to large-scale climate variability for different catchments of the French karst observatory network INSU/CNRS SNO KARST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Labat, David; Jourde, Hervé; Lecoq, Nicolas; Mazzilli, Naomi

    2017-04-01

    The french karst observatory network SNO KARST is a national initiative from the National Institute for Earth Sciences and Astronomy (INSU) of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS). It is also part of the new french research infrastructure for the observation of the critical zone OZCAR. SNO KARST is composed by several karst sites distributed over conterminous France which are located in different physiographic and climatic contexts (Mediterranean, Pyrenean, Jura mountain, western and northwestern shore near the Atlantic or the English Channel). This allows the scientific community to develop advanced research and experiments dedicated to improve understanding of the hydrological functioning of karst catchments. Here we used several sites of SNO KARST in order to assess the hydrological response of karst catchments to long-term variation of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Using NCEP reanalysis products and karst discharge, we analyzed the links between large-scale circulation and karst water resources variability. As karst hydrosystems are highly heterogeneous media, they behave differently across different time-scales : we explore the large-scale/local-scale relationships according to time-scales using a wavelet multiresolution approach of both karst hydrological variables and large-scale climate fields such as sea level pressure (SLP). The different wavelet components of karst discharge in response to the corresponding wavelet component of climate fields are either 1) compared to physico-chemical/geochemical responses at karst springs, or 2) interpreted in terms of hydrological functioning by comparing discharge wavelet components to internal components obtained from precipitation/discharge models using the KARSTMOD conceptual modeling platform of SNO KARST.

  5. Millennial-scale Agulhas Current variability and its implications for salt-leakage through the Indian-Atlantic Ocean Gateway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Margit H.; Arthur, Kristina L.; Hall, Ian R.; Peeters, Frank J. C.; Loveday, Benjamin R.; Barker, Stephen; Ziegler, Martin; Zahn, Rainer

    2013-12-01

    The inter-ocean exchange of warm and salt-enriched waters around South Africa (Agulhas leakage), may have played an important role in the mechanism of deglaciations. Paleoceanographic reconstructions from the Agulhas leakage corridor show that leakage maxima occurred during glacial terminations. Therefore enhanced leakage has been suggested as a forcing mechanism to shift the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation into the interglacial mode of circulation. At present, studies have not considered that upstream changes in the properties of the Agulhas Current itself may, in part, explain the observed variability in the Agulhas leakage and play an important role in defining the upper ocean hydrography of the South Atlantic. Here, we present a multi-proxy record from a marine sediment core (CD154 17-17K) located in the main trajectory of the Agulhas Current that spans the past 100 kyr. The record shows considerable variability in reconstructed upper ocean temperatures and salinity. We also find that the relative abundance of tropical and sub-tropical planktic foraminifera, previously used as a proxy for Agulhas leakage fauna, shows considerable upstream variability, likely reflecting changes in the hydrography of the southwest Indian Ocean sub-gyre (SWIOSG) and upper ocean temperatures. Idealised numerical model simulations demonstrate that both a shifting and an intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies modify the vigour of the SWIOSG. These changes also drive increased kinetic and eddy variability in the Agulhas Return Current that potentially enhances cross frontal mixing of southern sourced waters into the SWIOSG system. Our results suggest that variability in the upstream Agulhas Current hydrography is strongly linked to the dynamics of the Agulhas Return Current and strength of the SWIOSG and that downstream variability in the leakage area (Atlantic sector) at least partly reflects regional variations of the Agulhas Current as a whole.

  6. “PLAFKER RULE OF THUMB” RELOADED: EXPERIMENTAL INSIGHTS INTO THE SCALING AND VARIABILITY OF LOCAL TSUNAMIS TRIGGERED BY GREAT SUBDUCTION MEGATHRUST EARTHQUAKES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenau, M.; Nerlich, R.; Brune, S.; Oncken, O.

    2009-12-01

    Great subduction megathrust earthquakes pose a significant tsunami risk in coastal regions. In order to constrain natural tsunamigenic source heterogeneity and its effect on tsunami variability in different subduction settings (accretive, erosive), we here analyze a sequence of experimentally simulated great megathrust earthquakes. We use an elastoplastic wedge overlying a rate- and state-dependent frictional interface as an analog model of the subduction forearc overlying a seismogenic megathrust. Near-field (local) tsunami heights are derived by means of analytical versus numerical hydrodynamic calculations from the surface deformation of the analog model in comparison to predictions of an elastic dislocation model. The cumulative slip distribution over the simulated earthquake sequence resembles widely used skewed parameterizations supporting their use in worst case scenarios. Due to body forces and strain localization, tsunamis predicted by the analog model are enriched in kinetic energy compared to EDM predictions. The tsunami height-to-slip-ratio (“Plafker rule of thumb”) and its variance scale inversely to forearc slope according to a power law from ~ 1 at accretionary to ~ 1/4 in erosive settings (Cv ~ 0.6). Tsunami height scales exponentially with earthquake magnitude, has a power-law dependence on forearc slope and a variability characterized by Cv ~ 0.5 (see Figure). In terms of predicting tsunami scale and variability the analog model outperforms the elastic dislocation model which tends to overestimate local tsunami height and underscore its variability when tested against empirical data. Based on the experimentally derived earthquake-tsunami scaling law we infer the distribution of tsunami hazard on a global scale. Because of the exponential scaling of tsunamis with earthquake magnitude, its sensitivity to forearc slope and the possible non-linear kinetic enrichment of tsunamis triggered by giant earthquakes, disaster hotspots occur preferentially

  7. Governance of extended lifecycle in large-scale eHealth initiatives: analyzing variability of enterprise architecture elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mykkänen, Juha; Virkanen, Hannu; Tuomainen, Mika

    2013-01-01

    The governance of large eHealth initiatives requires traceability of many requirements and design decisions. We provide a model which we use to conceptually analyze variability of several enterprise architecture (EA) elements throughout the extended lifecycle of development goals using interrelated projects related to the national ePrescription in Finland.

  8. Multiple time scales in serial production of force : A tutorial on power spectral analysis of motor variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wing, Alan; Daffertshofer, Andreas; Pressing, Jeff

    2004-01-01

    We present a tutorial on a power spectral approach to variability in serial motor performance, describing as a case study two experiments on the form of the variance in two force production tasks. In Experiment 1 we examine grip force and load force in repetitive unimanual pulling; in Experiment 2,

  9. Forecasting Large-Scale Habitat Suitability of European Bustards under Climate Change: The Role of Environmental and Geographic Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Alba; Delgado, M. Paula; Arroyo, Beatriz; Traba, Juan; Morales, Manuel B.

    2016-01-01

    We modelled the distribution of two vulnerable steppe birds, Otis tarda and Tetrax tetrax, in the Western Palearctic and projected their suitability up to the year 2080. We performed two types of models for each species: one that included environmental and geographic variables (space-included model) and a second one that only included environmental variables (space-excluded model). Our assumption was that ignoring geographic variables in the modelling procedure may result in inaccurate forecasting of species distributions. On the other hand, the inclusion of geographic variables may generate an artificial constraint on future projections. Our results show that space-included models performed better than space-excluded models. While distribution of suitable areas for T. tetrax in the future was approximately the same as at present in the space-included model, the space-excluded model predicted a pronounced geographic change of suitable areas for this species. In the case of O. tarda, the space-included model showed that many areas of current presence shifted to low or medium suitability in the future, whereas a northward expansion of intermediate suitable areas was predicted by the space-excluded one. According to the best models, current distribution of these species can restrict future distribution, probably due to dispersal constraints and site fidelity. Species ranges would be expected to shift gradually over the studied time period and, therefore, we consider it unlikely that most of the current distribution of these species in southern Europe will disappear in less than one hundred years. Therefore, populations currently occupying suitable areas should be a priority for conservation policies. Our results also show that climate-only models may have low explanatory power, and could benefit from adjustments using information on other environmental variables and biological traits; if the latter are not available, including the geographic predictor may improve the

  10. Forecasting Large-Scale Habitat Suitability of European Bustards under Climate Change: The Role of Environmental and Geographic Variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Alba; Delgado, M Paula; Arroyo, Beatriz; Traba, Juan; Morales, Manuel B

    2016-01-01

    We modelled the distribution of two vulnerable steppe birds, Otis tarda and Tetrax tetrax, in the Western Palearctic and projected their suitability up to the year 2080. We performed two types of models for each species: one that included environmental and geographic variables (space-included model) and a second one that only included environmental variables (space-excluded model). Our assumption was that ignoring geographic variables in the modelling procedure may result in inaccurate forecasting of species distributions. On the other hand, the inclusion of geographic variables may generate an artificial constraint on future projections. Our results show that space-included models performed better than space-excluded models. While distribution of suitable areas for T. tetrax in the future was approximately the same as at present in the space-included model, the space-excluded model predicted a pronounced geographic change of suitable areas for this species. In the case of O. tarda, the space-included model showed that many areas of current presence shifted to low or medium suitability in the future, whereas a northward expansion of intermediate suitable areas was predicted by the space-excluded one. According to the best models, current distribution of these species can restrict future distribution, probably due to dispersal constraints and site fidelity. Species ranges would be expected to shift gradually over the studied time period and, therefore, we consider it unlikely that most of the current distribution of these species in southern Europe will disappear in less than one hundred years. Therefore, populations currently occupying suitable areas should be a priority for conservation policies. Our results also show that climate-only models may have low explanatory power, and could benefit from adjustments using information on other environmental variables and biological traits; if the latter are not available, including the geographic predictor may improve the

  11. Forecasting Large-Scale Habitat Suitability of European Bustards under Climate Change: The Role of Environmental and Geographic Variables.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alba Estrada

    Full Text Available We modelled the distribution of two vulnerable steppe birds, Otis tarda and Tetrax tetrax, in the Western Palearctic and projected their suitability up to the year 2080. We performed two types of models for each species: one that included environmental and geographic variables (space-included model and a second one that only included environmental variables (space-excluded model. Our assumption was that ignoring geographic variables in the modelling procedure may result in inaccurate forecasting of species distributions. On the other hand, the inclusion of geographic variables may generate an artificial constraint on future projections. Our results show that space-included models performed better than space-excluded models. While distribution of suitable areas for T. tetrax in the future was approximately the same as at present in the space-included model, the space-excluded model predicted a pronounced geographic change of suitable areas for this species. In the case of O. tarda, the space-included model showed that many areas of current presence shifted to low or medium suitability in the future, whereas a northward expansion of intermediate suitable areas was predicted by the space-excluded one. According to the best models, current distribution of these species can restrict future distribution, probably due to dispersal constraints and site fidelity. Species ranges would be expected to shift gradually over the studied time period and, therefore, we consider it unlikely that most of the current distribution of these species in southern Europe will disappear in less than one hundred years. Therefore, populations currently occupying suitable areas should be a priority for conservation policies. Our results also show that climate-only models may have low explanatory power, and could benefit from adjustments using information on other environmental variables and biological traits; if the latter are not available, including the geographic

  12. Modeling the contributions of global air temperature, synoptic-scale phenomena and soil moisture to near-surface static energy variability using artificial neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, Sara C.; Sullivan, Ryan C.; Schoof, Justin T.

    2017-12-01

    The static energy content of the atmosphere is increasing on a global scale, but exhibits important subglobal and subregional scales of variability and is a useful parameter for integrating the net effect of changes in the partitioning of energy at the surface and for improving understanding of the causes of so-called warming holes (i.e., locations with decreasing daily maximum air temperatures (T) or increasing trends of lower magnitude than the global mean). Further, measures of the static energy content (herein the equivalent potential temperature, θe) are more strongly linked to excess human mortality and morbidity than air temperature alone, and have great relevance in understanding causes of past heat-related excess mortality and making projections of possible future events that are likely to be associated with negative human health and economic consequences. New nonlinear statistical models for summertime daily maximum and minimum θe are developed and used to advance understanding of drivers of historical change and variability over the eastern USA. The predictor variables are an index of the daily global mean temperature, daily indices of the synoptic-scale meteorology derived from T and specific humidity (Q) at 850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights (Z), and spatiotemporally averaged soil moisture (SM). SM is particularly important in determining the magnitude of θe over regions that have previously been identified as exhibiting warming holes, confirming the key importance of SM in dictating the partitioning of net radiation into sensible and latent heat and dictating trends in near-surface T and θe. Consistent with our a priori expectations, models built using artificial neural networks (ANNs) out-perform linear models that do not permit interaction of the predictor variables (global T, synoptic-scale meteorological conditions and SM). This is particularly marked in regions with high variability in minimum and maximum θe, where more complex models

  13. Large Spatial Scale Variability in Bathyal Macrobenthos Abundance, Biomass, a- and b-Diversity along the Mediterranean Continental Margin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baldrighi, E.; Lavaleye, M.; Aliani, S.; Conversi, A.; Manini, E.

    2014-01-01

    The large-scale deep-sea biodiversity distribution of the benthic fauna was explored in the Mediterranean Sea, which can beseen as a miniature model of the oceans of the world. Within the framework of the BIOFUN project (‘‘Biodiversity andEcosystem Functioning in Contrasting Southern European

  14. Simple Crosscutting Concerns Are Not So Simple : Analysing Variability in Large-Scale Idioms-Based Implementations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruntink, M.; Van Deursen, A.; d’Hondt, M.; Tourwé, T.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a method for studying idioms-based implementations of crosscutting concerns, and our experiences with it in the context of a real-world, large-scale embedded software system. In particular, we analyse a seemingly simple concern, tracing, and show that it exhibits significant

  15. Low Oxygen Water (LOW) variability in the Benguela system: key processes and forcing scales relevant to forecasting

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Monteiro, PMS

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available and their elucidation through observational programmes alone is not cost effective. Models are required to characterise the complexity of the most important forcing and response scales in both time and space. It will be necessary to approach this as a multi...

  16. Analysis of the Gender Variable in the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire--Revised Scales Using Differential Item Functioning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escorial, Sergio; Navas, Maria J.

    2007-01-01

    Studies in the field of personality have systematically found gender differences in two of the three dimensions of the Eysenck model: neuroticism and psychoticism. This study aims to analyze these differences in the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire--Revised (EPQ-R) scales using differential item functioning (DIF) techniques to determine whether…

  17. Multi-decadal-scale records of North Atlantic climate variability during the last and present interglacials: Climate sensitivity and the AMOC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Amat, P.; Zahn, R.; Martrat, B.; Grimalt, J. O.

    2012-12-01

    North Atlantic climate sensitivity plays a crucial role in understanding current and future developments of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). A shifted configuration of Earth's orbital parameters about the Sun caused an approximate 3% higher radiative forcing during the Last Interglacial (LIG, MIS5e; 129-115kyr) and drove climate to measurably warmer conditions than during the Present Interglacial (PIG, Holocene, 11-0Kyr). Paleoceanographic time series of surface ocean climatology from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 976 in the Alboran Sea, westernmost Mediterranean, reflect the climatic variability during the LIG and PIG. The site receives climate signals from the advection of Atlantic inflow waters confirming its quality to monitor North Atlantic climate variability. Elevated rates of sedimentation deposition at the site enable resolving variability at multi-decadal resolution (60-90 yrs). Sea surface temperature (SST) time series were established from element concentrations (Mg/Ca) in the planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides. SST from alkenones were also measured for comparison purposes. Planktonic oxygen isotopes from G. bulloides allow direct comparison with speleothems and ice cores. LIG SST are between 3°- 6°C warmer than PIG SST and multi-decadal-scale variability by 4°C and more is indicated by highly variable Mg/Ca ratios. This variability persisted during the LIG climatic optimum, confirming that SST and climatic variability were independent of large ice sheets. The high variability is contrasted by more stable SST in the Uk37-derived SST record, plausibly alluding to differential SST recording by the molecular biomarker proxy. Correlation with δ18O records from European speleothems suggests the SST pattern reflects climate of the western North Atlantic region. The LIG SST pattern at ODP 976 differs from that at open North Atlantic settings where maximum SST during the LIG climatic optimum remained some 6°C below

  18. Representation of fine scale atmospheric variability in a nudged limited area quasi-geostrophic model: application to regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omrani, H.; Drobinski, P.; Dubos, T.

    2009-09-01

    In this work, we consider the effect of indiscriminate nudging time on the large and small scales of an idealized limited area model simulation. The limited area model is a two layer quasi-geostrophic model on the beta-plane driven at its boundaries by its « global » version with periodic boundary condition. This setup mimics the configuration used for regional climate modelling. Compared to a previous study by Salameh et al. (2009) who investigated the existence of an optimal nudging time minimizing the error on both large and small scale in a linear model, we here use a fully non-linear model which allows us to represent the chaotic nature of the atmosphere: given the perfect quasi-geostrophic model, errors in the initial conditions, concentrated mainly in the smaller scales of motion, amplify and cascade into the larger scales, eventually resulting in a prediction with low skill. To quantify the predictability of our quasi-geostrophic model, we measure the rate of divergence of the system trajectories in phase space (Lyapunov exponent) from a set of simulations initiated with a perturbation of a reference initial state. Predictability of the "global", periodic model is mostly controlled by the beta effect. In the LAM, predictability decreases as the domain size increases. Then, the effect of large-scale nudging is studied by using the "perfect model” approach. Two sets of experiments were performed: (1) the effect of nudging is investigated with a « global » high resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model driven by a low resolution two layer quasi-geostrophic model. (2) similar simulations are conducted with the two layer quasi-geostrophic LAM where the size of the LAM domain comes into play in addition to the first set of simulations. In the two sets of experiments, the best spatial correlation between the nudge simulation and the reference is observed with a nudging time close to the predictability time.

  19. Pore-scale modeling of vapor transport in partially saturated capillary tube with variable area using chemical potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Addassi, Mouadh; Schreyer, Lynn; Johannesson, Björn

    2016-01-01

    Here we illustrate the usefulness of using the chemical potential as the primary unknown by modeling isothermal vapor transport through a partially saturated cylindrically symmetric capillary tube of variable cross-sectional area using a single equation. There are no fitting parameters and the nu......Here we illustrate the usefulness of using the chemical potential as the primary unknown by modeling isothermal vapor transport through a partially saturated cylindrically symmetric capillary tube of variable cross-sectional area using a single equation. There are no fitting parameters...... and the numerical solutions to the equation are compared with experimental results with excellent agreement. We demonstrate that isothermal vapor transport can be accurately modeled without modeling the details of the contact angle, microscale temperature fluctuations, or pressure fluctuations using a modification...

  20. A large-scale study of the random variability of a coding sequence: a study on the CFTR gene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modiano, Guido; Bombieri, Cristina; Ciminelli, Bianca Maria; Belpinati, Francesca; Giorgi, Silvia; Georges, Marie des; Scotet, Virginie; Pompei, Fiorenza; Ciccacci, Cinzia; Guittard, Caroline; Audrézet, Marie Pierre; Begnini, Angela; Toepfer, Michael; Macek, Milan; Ferec, Claude; Claustres, Mireille; Pignatti, Pier Franco

    2005-02-01

    Coding single nucleotide substitutions (cSNSs) have been studied on hundreds of genes using small samples (n(g) approximately 100-150 genes). In the present investigation, a large random European population sample (average n(g) approximately 1500) was studied for a single gene, the CFTR (Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane conductance Regulator). The nonsynonymous (NS) substitutions exhibited, in accordance with previous reports, a mean probability of being polymorphic (q > 0.005), much lower than that of the synonymous (S) substitutions, but they showed a similar rate of subpolymorphic (q < 0.005) variability. This indicates that, in autosomal genes that may have harmful recessive alleles (nonduplicated genes with important functions), genetic drift overwhelms selection in the subpolymorphic range of variability, making disadvantageous alleles behave as neutral. These results imply that the majority of the subpolymorphic nonsynonymous alleles of these genes are selectively negative or even pathogenic.

  1. Short-term radio variability and parsec-scale structure in A gamma-ray narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 0323+342

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wajima, Kiyoaki [Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 80 Nandan Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200030 (China); Fujisawa, Kenta [The Research Institute for Time Studies, Yamaguchi University, 1677-1 Yoshida, Yamaguchi, Yamaguchi 753-8511 (Japan); Hayashida, Masaaki [Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582 (Japan); Isobe, Naoki [The Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, 3-1-1 Yoshinodai, Chuo-ku, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252-5210 (Japan); Ishida, Takafumi [Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Yamaguchi University, 1677-1 Yoshida, Yamaguchi, Yamaguchi 753-8512 (Japan); Yonekura, Yoshinori, E-mail: kwajima@shao.ac.cn [Center for Astronomy, Ibaraki University, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito, Ibaraki 310-8512 (Japan)

    2014-02-01

    We made simultaneous single-dish and very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) observations of a narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy 1H 323+342, showing gamma-ray activity revealed by Fermi/Large Area Telescope observations. We found significant variation of the total flux density at 8 GHz on the timescale of one month by the single-dish monitoring. The total flux density varied by 5.5% in 32 days, which is comparable to the gamma-ray variability timescale, corresponding to the variability brightness temperature of 7.0 × 10{sup 11} K. The source consists of central and southeastern components on the parsec (pc) scale. Only the flux of the central component decreased in the same way as the total flux density, indicating that the short-term radio variability, and probably the gamma-ray-emitting region, is associated with this component. From the VLBI observations, we obtained brightness temperatures of greater than (5.2 ± 0.3) × 10{sup 10} K and derived an equipartition Doppler factor of greater than 1.7, a variability Doppler factor of 2.2, and an 8 GHz radio power of 10{sup 24.6} W Hz{sup –1}. Combining them, we conclude that acceleration of radio jets and creation of high-energy particles are ongoing in the central engine and that the apparent very radio-loud feature of the source is due to the Doppler boosting effect, resulting in the intrinsic radio loudness being an order of magnitude smaller than the observed values. We also conclude that the pc-scale jet represents recurrent activity from the spectral fitting and the estimated kinematic age of pc- and kpc-scale extended components with different position angles.

  2. Alien species in a brackish water temperate ecosystem: annual-scale dynamics in response to environmental variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojaveer, Henn; Kotta, Jonne; Põllumäe, Arno; Põllupüü, Maria; Jaanus, Andres; Vetemaa, Markus

    2011-10-01

    Alien species contribute to global change in all marine ecosystems. Environmental variability can affect species distribution and population sizes, and is therefore expected to influence alien species. In this study, we have investigated temporal variability of 11 alien species representing different trophic levels and ecological functions in two gulfs of the brackish Baltic Sea in relation to environmental change. Independent of the invasion time, organism group or the life-history stage, abundance and/or biomass of the investigated alien species was either stable or displayed abrupt increases over time. Timing in population shifts was species-specific and exhibited no generic patterns, indicating that the observed large shifts in environmental parameters have no uniform consequences to the alien biota. In general, the inter-annual dynamics of alien and native species was not largely different, though native species tended to exhibit more diverse variability patterns compared to the alien species. There were no key environmental factors that affected most of the alien species, instead, the effects varied among the studied gulfs and species. Non-indigenous species have caused prominent structural changes in invaded communities as a result of exponential increase in the most recent invasions, as well as increased densities of the already established alien species. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Orbit-spin coupling and the interannual variability of global-scale dust storm occurrence on Mars

    CERN Document Server

    Shirley, James H

    2016-01-01

    A new physical hypothesis predicts that a weak coupling of the orbital and rotational motions of extended bodies may give rise to a modulation of circulatory flows within their atmospheres. Driven cycles of intensification and relaxation of large-scale circulatory flows are predicted, with the phasing of these changes linked directly to the rate of change of the orbital angular momentum with respect to inertial frames. We test the hypothesis that global-scale dust storms (GDS) on Mars may occur when periods of circulatory intensification (associated with positive and negative extrema of the waveform) coincide with the southern summer dust storm season on Mars. The orbit-spin coupling hypothesis additionally predicts that the intervening transitional periods, which are characterized by the disappearance and subsequent sign change of this waveform, may be unfavorable for the occurrence of GDS, when they occur during the southern summer dust storm season. These hypotheses are confirmed through comparisons betwee...

  4. Centimeter-scale spatial variability in 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid mineralization increases with depth in agricultural soil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badawi, Nora; Johnsen, Anders R.; Sørensen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Mineralization of organic chemicals in soil is typically studied using large homogenized samples, but little is known about the small-scale spatial distribution of mineralization potential. We studied centimeter-scale spatial distribution of 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid (MCPA) mineralization...... activity at different depths (8-115 cm) in a Danish agricultural soil profi le using a 96-well microplate C-radiorespirometric method for small-volume samples. The heterotrophic microbial population and specifi c MCPA degraders decreased 10- to 100-fold from the plow layer to a depth of 115 cm. MCPA...... was mineralized in all samples in the plow layer, but only about 60% in the transition zone immediately below the plow layer showed mineralization; at greater depth even fewer samples showed mineralization. A patchy spatial distribution of mineralization activity was observed from right below the plow layer...

  5. Global weather and local butterflies: variable responses to a large-scale climate pattern along an elevational gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardikes, Nicholas A; Shapiro, Arthur M; Dyer, Lee A; Forister, Matthew L

    2015-11-01

    Understanding the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental variation affects populations of plants and animals is an important goal for modern population biology, especially in the context of shifting climatic conditions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climatic extremes of interannual variation, and has been shown to have significant effects on the diversity and abundance of a variety of terrestrial taxa. However, studies that have investigated the influence of such large-scale climate phenomena have often been limited in spatial and taxonomic scope. We used 23 years (1988-2010) of a long-term butterfly monitoring data set to explore associations between variation in population abundance of 28 butterfly species and variation in ENSO-derived sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) across 10 sites that encompass an elevational range of 2750 m in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. Our analysis detected a positive, regional effect of increased SSTA on butterfly abundance (wetter and warmer years predict more butterfly observations), yet the influence of SSTA on butterfly abundances varied along the elevational gradient, and also differed greatly among the 28 species. Migratory species had the strongest relationships with ENSO-derived SSTA, suggesting that large-scale climate indices are particularly valuable for understanding biotic-abiotic relationships of the most mobile species. In general, however, the ecological effects of large-scale climatic factors are context dependent between sites and species. Our results illustrate the power of long-term data sets for revealing pervasive yet subtle climatic effects, but also caution against expectations derived from exemplar species or single locations in the study of biotic-abiotic interactions.

  6. Local-scale patterns of genetic variability, outcrossing, and spatial structure in natural stands of Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Bomblies

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available As Arabidopsis thaliana is increasingly employed in evolutionary and ecological studies, it is essential to understand patterns of natural genetic variation and the forces that shape them. Previous work focusing mostly on global and regional scales has demonstrated the importance of historical events such as long-distance migration and colonization. Far less is known about the role of contemporary factors or environmental heterogeneity in generating diversity patterns at local scales. We sampled 1,005 individuals from 77 closely spaced stands in diverse settings around Tübingen, Germany. A set of 436 SNP markers was used to characterize genome-wide patterns of relatedness and recombination. Neighboring genotypes often shared mosaic blocks of alternating marker identity and divergence. We detected recent outcrossing as well as stretches of residual heterozygosity in largely homozygous recombinants. As has been observed for several other selfing species, there was considerable heterogeneity among sites in diversity and outcrossing, with rural stands exhibiting greater diversity and heterozygosity than urban stands. Fine-scale spatial structure was evident as well. Within stands, spatial structure correlated negatively with observed heterozygosity, suggesting that the high homozygosity of natural A. thaliana may be partially attributable to nearest-neighbor mating of related individuals. The large number of markers and extensive local sampling employed here afforded unusual power to characterize local genetic patterns. Contemporary processes such as ongoing outcrossing play an important role in determining distribution of genetic diversity at this scale. Local "outcrossing hotspots" appear to reshuffle genetic information at surprising rates, while other stands contribute comparatively little. Our findings have important implications for sampling and interpreting diversity among A. thaliana accessions.

  7. Process, mechanism and impacts of scale formation in alkaline flooding by a variable porosity and permeability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Li, Jiachun

    2016-06-01

    In spite of the role of alkali in enhancing oil recovery (EOR), the formation of precipitation during alkaline-surfactant-polymer (ASP) flooding can severely do harm to the stratum of oil reservoirs, which has been observed in situ tests of oil fields such as scale deposits found in oil stratum and at the bottom of oil wells. On the other hand, remarkable variation of stratum parameters, e.g., pore radius, porosity, and permeability due to scale formation considerably affects seepage flow and alkaline flooding process in return. The objective of this study is to firstly examine these mutual influential phenomena and corresponding mechanisms along with EOR during alkaline flooding when the effects of precipitation are no longer negligible. The chemical kinetic theory is applied for the specific fundamental reactions to describe the process of rock dissolution in silica-based reservoirs. The solubility product principle is used to analyze the mechanism of alkali scale formation in flooding. Then a 3D alkaline flooding coupling model accounting for the variation of porosity and permeability is established to quantitatively estimate the impact of alkali scales on reservoir stratum. The reliability of the present model is verified in comparison with indoor experiments and field tests of the Daqing oil field. Then, the numerical simulations on a 1/4 well group in a 5-spot pattern show that the precipitation grows with alkali concentration, temperature, and injection pressure and, thus, reduces reservoir permeability and oil recovery correspondingly. As a result, the selection of alkali with a weak base is preferable in ASP flooding by tradeoff strategy.

  8. Connecting climate change to coastal evolution: Impact of sub-millenial- scale precipitation variability on fluvial sediment discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krask, J. L.; Hein, C. J.; Galy, V.; FitzGerald, D.

    2016-12-01

    While millennial- scale variations in climate forcing drives changes in terrestrial processes, which are directly linked to fluvial sediment loads (e.g., weathering and erosion), the impact of decadal- to centennial- scale climate fluctuations on downstream coastal sedimentation patterns and landscape evolution remains unclear. Specifically, the connection between long-term (decades or more) precipitation seasonality and sediment export from river systems has not been established. This study examines the Tijucas strandplain (Southern Brazil) to determine if sub-millennial-scale fluctuations in precipitation at river systems have a detectable influence on the coastal landscape. A 5-km strandplain, formed over the last 5800 years through the rapid reworking of sediment discharged from the proximal Tijucas River in a regime of falling sea level, encompasses nearly 70 distinct transitions between shore-parallel sand- and mud- dominated facies. An overall shift from sand- to mud- dominance is due to a long-term reduction in wave energy caused by bay shoaling. Bulk and terrestrial vascular plant wax fatty acid stable hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic measurements from sediments from select sandy and muddy ridges across the plain reveal that these two sedimentological units are geochemically distinct. Furthermore, waxes from sediments deposited during periods of sandy progradation were, on average, >10‰ more enriched in deuterium than those from mud-dominated periods, indicating that these sedimentary units reflect different climatic conditions within the river drainage basin at the time of deposition. Comparison of plant wax isotopic signatures of river and beach sediments during the current period of mud-dominated progradation, reveals a close correlation with earlier periods of mud deposition within the Tijucas Strandplain. Thus, decadal- to centennial- scale sedimentologic transitions within the plain are interpreted to reflect climate-driven changes in mud

  9. Short Temporal Scale Variability of Low Cloud Regimes/Vertical Structures and Large-Scale Thermodynamics and Dynamics over the Southeastern Pacific Using MODIS and ERA-Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubar, T. L.; Lebsock, M. D.

    2012-12-01

    While oceanic boundary layer clouds are well-correlated with SST, ω500, and various stability metrics over particular tropical and subtropical dynamic regimes particularly when at least 10-15 days are averaged together or when examining the annual cycle characteristics, the coherence of clouds with controlling variables is imperfect at smaller temporal and spatial scales for which cloud properties also exhibit significant variability. By utilizing a plethora of novel satellite cloud data of daily observations of MODIS level-3 data in conjunction with state-of-the-art reanalysis data from ERA-Interim, synoptic variability of low-level clouds and their relationships with potential controlling factors are quantified through examination of Hovmoller diagrams as well as empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and harmonic analysis to better elucidate the horizontal structure and temporal evolution of boundary layer clouds and the environment. The focus on the southeastern Pacific along cross-sections between near the equator to the north and the southern hemisphere mid-latitudes south of the primary VOCALS region encompasses multiple SST and large-scale dynamic regimes. This includes the cold tongue near the equator, a large latitude band of subsidence and predominant low clouds near the VOCALS region, and greater synoptic variability and fewer isolated low clouds further south. For fixed latitudes between the equator and ~30°S, SSTs decrease significantly from west to east from ~140°W to ~70°W by 5-10°C, and low-level cloud fraction histograms screened to exclude upper-level cloudiness reveal predominantly scattered low clouds to the west, a cloud fraction transition zone between about 110°W to 90°W, to frequent solid cloud cover scenes especially east of 90°W as stability and inversion strength both increase. Synoptic-scale analyses reveal that enhanced estimated inversion strength (EIS) anomalies tend to be geographically and temporally located with suppressed

  10. Effects of Spatial Variability in Flow and Sediment Transport on Benthic Invertebrates During Runoff Events: Patch and Reach-Scale Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenworthy, S.

    2005-05-01

    The short-term impact of streamflow increases on benthic populations depends on spatial patterns of organism dispersal and mortality that are difficult to observe and quantify in the field. Laboratory and field experiments suggest that the size distribution, structure, and stability of streambed sediment play critical roles in mediating the effects of flow increases on dispersal and mortality of organisms. I present the results of laboratory flume experiments in which flow and sediment transport were progressively increased and the resulting displacement of aquatic insect larvae was quantified. These and other experiments demonstrate that the displacement and mortality of benthic organisms scales with streambed entrainment and sediment transport, but that bed structure and the physical and behavioral traits of the biota can strongly influence this relationship. Application of these patch-scale experimental results to understanding the hydrogeomorphic determinants of reach-scale flood impacts involves important scientific challenges and uncertainties. Reliable estimation of the spatial variability of streambed mobilization and sediment transport as a function of channel and substrate characteristics, flow history and sediment supply is necessary to compare the effects of different events or among different stream reaches. Also needed is a better appreciation of the spatial scales of organism dispersal during flow events and the physical and biological controls on patterns of dispersal at various scales.

  11. Spatiotemporal variability in biogenic gas dynamics in a subtropical peat soil at the laboratory scale is revealed using high-resolution ground-penetrating radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustasaar, Mario; Comas, Xavier

    2017-09-01

    The importance of peatlands as sources of greenhouse gas emissions has been demonstrated in many studies during the last two decades. While most studies have shown the heterogeneous distribution of biogenic gas in peat soils at the field scale (sampling volumes in the order of meters), little information exists for submeter scales, particularly relevant to properly capture the dynamics of hot spots for gas accumulation and release when designing sampling routines with methods that use smaller (i.e., submeter) sampling volumes like flux chambers. In this study, ground-penetrating radar is used at the laboratory scale to evaluate biogenic gas dynamics at high spatial resolution (i.e., cm) in a peat monolith from the Everglades. The results indicate sharp changes (both spatially and temporally) in the dynamics of gas accumulation and release, representing hot spots for production and release of biogenic gases with surface areas ranging between 5 to 10 cm diameter and are associated with increases in porosity. Furthermore, changes in gas composition and inferred methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes also displayed a high spatiotemporal variability associated with hot spots, resulting in CH4 and CO2 flux estimates showing differences up to 1 order of magnitude during the same day for different parts of the sample. This work follows on recent studies in the Everglades and questions the appropriateness of spatial and temporal scales of measurement when defining gas dynamics by showing how flux values may change both spatially and temporarily even when considering submeter spatial scales.

  12. The role of storage capacity in coping with intra-annual runoff variability on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaupp, Franziska; Hall, Jim; Dadson, Simon

    2015-04-01

    Intra-annual variability poses a risk to water security in many basins as runoff is unevenly distributed over the year. Areas such as Northern Africa, Australia and the South-Western USA are characterized by a high coefficient of variability of monthly runoff. Analyzing the global risk of water scarcity, this study examines 680 basin-country units (BCUs) (403 river basins divided by country borders). By calculating the water balance for each BCU, the interplay of runoff on the one hand and domestic, industrial and environmental water needs on the other hand is shown. In contrast to other studies on average water scarcity, this work focuses on variability of water supply as metrics based on annual average water availability and demand can underestimate the risk of scarcity. The model is based on the assumption that each country-basin with sub-basins and tributaries can be treated as one single reservoir with storage capacity aggregated over that BCU. It includes surface runoff and the possibility to withdraw groundwater as water supply. The storage capacity of each BCU represents the ability to transfer water from wet months to dry months in order to buffer and cope with intra-annual water supply variability and to meet total water demand. Average monthly surface runoff per country-basin for the period 1979 to 2012 is derived from outcomes of the hydrological model Mac-PDM. Mac-PDM is forced with monthly ERAI-Interim reanalysis climate data on a one degree resolution. Groundwater withdrawal capacity, total water demand and storage capacity are taken from the IMPACT model provided by the International Food Research Institute (IFPRI). Storage refers to any kind of surface reservoir whose water can be managed and used for human activities in the industrial, domestic and agricultural sectors. Groundwater withdrawal capacity refers to the technological capacity to pump water rather than the amount of groundwater available. Total water demand includes consumptive water

  13. Sign and magnitude scaling properties of heart rate variability in patients with end-stage renal failure: Are these properties useful to identify pathophysiological adaptations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerma, Claudia; Echeverría, Juan C.; Infante, Oscar; Pérez-Grovas, Héctor; González-Gómez, Hortensia

    2017-09-01

    The scaling properties of heart rate variability data are reliable dynamical features to predict mortality and for the assessment of cardiovascular risk. The aim of this manuscript was to determine if the scaling properties, as provided by the sign and magnitude analysis, can be used to differentiate between pathological changes and those adaptations basically introduced by modifications of the mean heart rate in distinct manoeuvres (active standing or hemodialysis treatment, HD), as well as clinical conditions (end stage renal disease, ESRD). We found that in response to active standing, the short-term scaling index (α1) increased in healthy subjects and in ESRD patients only after HD. The sign short-term scaling exponent (α1sign) increased in healthy subjects and ESRD patients, showing a less anticorrelated behavior in active standing. Both α1 and α1sign did show covariance with the mean heart rate in healthy subjects, while in ESRD patients, this covariance was observed only after HD. A reliable estimation of the magnitude short-term scaling exponent (α1magn) required the analysis of time series with a large number of samples (>3000 data points). This exponent was similar for both groups and conditions and did not show covariance with the mean heart rate. A surrogate analysis confirmed the presence of multifractal properties (α1magn > 0.5) in the time series of healthy subjects and ESDR patients. In conclusion, α1 and α1sign provided insights into the physiological adaptations during active standing, which revealed a transitory impairment before HD in ESRD patients. The presence of multifractal properties indicated that a reduced short-term variability does not necessarily imply a declined regulatory complexity in these patients.

  14. Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

    2016-04-01

    The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

  15. Hydrological response to large-scale climate variability across the Pearl River basin, China: Spatiotemporal patterns and sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun

    2017-02-01

    The aim of this study is to examine whether the climatic driving forces can describe the observed variability in available water resources and the magnitude of flooding over the Pearl River basin. 62 stations with 41 years of monthly streamflow records and 28 stations with 60 years of annual maximum streamflow records were used in this study. Four climate indices related to the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans were used to analyze their influence on annual mean discharge (Qann) and annual maximum daily discharge (Qmax) of the Pearl River basin, and the indices are El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We found that the variations in available water resources and the magnitudes of floods across Pearl River can be explained by climate variability, potentially. The Qann and Qmax in different regions of the domain were significantly related to different climate indices at the same year or at the last year. In addition, in many regions the strengths of the relationships between climate indices and Qann and Qmax have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. Furthermore, the quantifications of climate indices impacts on Qann and Qmax (i.e. sensitive) were also assessed. The results showed that Qmax was more sensitive to the variability of atmospheric circulation than Qann. In addition, Qann varied on average between 0.3 and 24%, while Qmax varied between 0.5 and 31% per unit climate index change. The above relationships between climate indices and Qann and Qmax provided relevant information for water resources management in Pearl River basin, allowing the identification of regions with higher flood risk and enhancement of human mitigation to floods.

  16. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Young

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR is to provide the research community with an up-to-date scientific assessment of tropospheric ozone, from the surface to the tropopause. While a suite of observations provides significant information on the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric ozone, observational gaps make it necessary to use global atmospheric chemistry models to synthesize our understanding of the processes and variables that control tropospheric ozone abundance and its variability. Models facilitate the interpretation of the observations and allow us to make projections of future tropospheric ozone and trace gas distributions for different anthropogenic or natural perturbations. This paper assesses the skill of current-generation global atmospheric chemistry models in simulating the observed present-day tropospheric ozone distribution, variability, and trends. Drawing upon the results of recent international multi-model intercomparisons and using a range of model evaluation techniques, we demonstrate that global chemistry models are broadly skillful in capturing the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric ozone over the seasonal cycle, for extreme pollution episodes, and changes over interannual to decadal periods. However, models are consistently biased high in the northern hemisphere and biased low in the southern hemisphere, throughout the depth of the troposphere, and are unable to replicate particular metrics that define the longer term trends in tropospheric ozone as derived from some background sites. When the models compare unfavorably against observations, we discuss the potential causes of model biases and propose directions for future developments, including improved evaluations that may be able to better diagnose the root cause of the model-observation disparity. Overall, model results should be approached critically, including determining whether the model performance is acceptable for

  17. Influence of Tree-Scale Environmental Variability on Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Temperature at Sonora Pass, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, L.; Stine, A.

    2016-12-01

    Tree-ring width from treeline environments tend to covary with local interannual temperature variabilities. However, other environmental factors such as moisture and light availability may further modulate tree growth in cold climates. We investigate the influence of various environmental factors on a tree-ring record from a research plot near Sonora Pass, CA (38.32N, 119.64W; elev. 3130 m). This treeline ecotone is dominated by whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) growing as individuals and as stands, and at the transition between tree form and krummholtz. We surveyed all trees in the 160m x 90m site, mapping and coring all trees with a diameter at breast height greater than 10 cm. We use survey data to test for an influence of inter-tree competition on growth. We also test for modulation of growth by variation in distance from surface water, aspect and slope, and soil types. Initial result shows a relationship between tree ring width and local May-July temperature (R = 0.33, p effect of spatial variability on mean growth rate and on reconstructed temperatures. Trees that have larger or closer neighboring trees experience greater competition, and we hypothesize that competition will be inversely related to average growth rate. Further, we test the sensitivity of ring-width interannual variability to other non-temperature environmental drivers such as moisture availability, light competition, and spatial relations in the microenvironment. We hypothesize that trees that have ready access to light and water will likely produce ring records more closely correlated with the temperature record, and thus will produce a temperature reconstruction with a higher signal-to-noise ratio; whereas trees that experience more microenvironment limitations or competition will produce ring records resembling temperature and additional environmental factors or will contain more noise.

  18. Multi-decadal scale variability in the eastern Baltic cod fishery 1550-1860 - Evidence and causes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacKenzie, Brian; Bager, M.; Ojaveer, H.

    2007-01-01

    in the Baltic as developed and implemented by organisations such as the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (HELCOM), the nine coastal countries and the European Union includes recovery of the cod population, a reduction in nutrient...... is unknown, as is the relative role of fishing, climate variability/regimes, eutrophication and reduction of marine mammal predator populations. We have begun to investigate whether historical fisheries information (landings, effort, distribution) from before the 1880s is available in Baltic archives...

  19. Collaborative project. Ocean-atmosphere interaction from meso-to planetary-scale. Mechanisms, parameterization, and variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Small, Richard [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Bryan, Frank [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Tribbia, Joseph [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Park, Sungsu [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Dennis, John [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Saravanan, R. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, Niklas [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Kwon, Young-Oh [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-06-11

    This project aims to improve long term global climate simulations by resolving ocean mesoscale activity and the corresponding response in the atmosphere. The main computational objectives are; i) to perform and assess Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations with the new Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) spectral element dynamical core; ii) use static mesh refinement to focus on oceanic fronts; iii) develop a new Earth System Modeling tool to investigate the atmospheric response to fronts by selectively filtering surface flux fields in the CESM coupler. The climate research objectives are 1) to improve the coupling of ocean fronts and the atmospheric boundary layer via investigations of dependency on model resolution and stability functions: 2) to understand and simulate the ensuing tropospheric response that has recently been documented in observations: and 3) to investigate the relationship of ocean frontal variability to low frequency climate variability and the accompanying storm tracks and extremes in high resolution simulations. This is a collaborative multi-institution project consisting of computational scientists, climate scientists and climate model developers. It specifically aims at DOE objectives of advancing simulation and predictive capability of climate models through improvements in resolution and physical process representation.

  20. Spatial variability and preferential flow phenomenon in coarse, unsaturated mining materials: Results from field-scale infiltration experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, S. W.; Webb, G.; Fenstemaker, T.

    2003-04-01

    Water and solute flow in highly heterogeneous, unsaturated, coarse porous media is often observed by rarely quantified. Fluid flow may follow Darcy-Buckingham models, or may be dominated by gravity film flows. Geochemical reactions are strongly controlled by the kinetics of the fluid flow and the geometry of wetted surfaces. Field scale experiments in a gold heap leach ore are underway to quantify preferential flow and solute transport at a variety of scales. The experiments are designed to improve the efficiency of cyanide leaching, as well as to develop more effective methods for removing cyanide solution from the material following exhaustion of the gold supply. Application of both water and cyanide solution to a 7-10 meter lift of gold bearing ore ranging in texture from clay to large boulders has been ongoing for 60 days. Twenty-nine drainage pan lysimeters have been installed at the base of the lift to record the first arrival of fluid and the subsequent flow behavior during leaching by cyanide solution. Two scales of lysimeters have been installed, 5 large lysimeters of 30 m^2 and 24 smaller (2 m^2) lysimeters. Electrical resistance tomography was also used to track the temporal and spatial evolution of the wetting front over several of the large lysimeters. Preliminary results indicate that initial wetting front velocities varied by as much 100% between lysimeters. Once drainage begin in the lysimeters, however, lysimeter flow rates normalized for area, appear to show much less spatial variation than expected. The results indicate that, in spite of large variation in porous media texture and the probability of the existence of large macropores, the fluid flow is controlled by both capillarity and gravity.

  1. Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baliunas, Sallie L.; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less

  2. MINUTE-SCALE RAPID VARIABILITY OF THE OPTICAL POLARIZATION IN THE NARROW-LINE SEYFERT 1 GALAXY PMN J0948+0022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itoh, Ryosuke; Tanaka, Yasuyuki T.; Fukazawa, Yasushi; Kawaguchi, Kenji; Takaki, Katsutoshi; Ueno, Issei [Department of Physical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan); Kawabata, Koji S.; Moritani, Yuki; Uemura, Makoto; Akitaya, Hiroshi; Yoshida, Michitoshi; Ohsugi, Takashi [Hiroshima Astrophysical Science Center, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan); Hanayama, Hidekazu; Miyaji, Takeshi [Ishigakijima Astronomical Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, 1024-1 Arakawa, Ishigaki, Okinawa 907-0024 (Japan); Kawai, Nobuyuki, E-mail: itoh@hep01.hepl.hiroshima-u.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan)

    2013-09-20

    We report on optical photopolarimetric results of the radio-loud narrow-line Seyfert 1 (RL-NLSy1) galaxy PMN J0948+0022 on 2012 December to 2013 February triggered by flux enhancements in the near infrared and γ-ray bands. With the one-shot polarimetry of the Hiroshima One-shot Wide field Polarimeter installed on the Kanata Telescope, we detected very rapid variability in the polarized-flux (PF) light curve on MJD 56281 (2012 December 20). The rise and decay times were about 140 s and 180 s, respectively. The polarization degree (PD) reached 36% ± 3% at the peak of the short-duration pulse, while the polarization angle remained almost constant. In addition, temporal profiles of the total flux and PD showed highly variable but well correlated behavior and discrete correlation function analysis revealed that no significant time lag of more than 10 minutes was present. The high PD and minute-scale variability in PF provides clear evidence of synchrotron radiation from a very compact emission region of ∼10{sup 14} cm size with a highly ordered magnetic field. Such micro-variability of polarization is also observed in several blazar jets, but its complex relation between total flux and PD are explained by a multi-zone model in several blazars. The implied single emission region in PMN J0948+0022 might reflect a difference of jets between RL-NLSy1s and blazars.

  3. A quality by design (QbD case study on enteric-coated pellets: Screening of critical variables and establishment of design space at laboratory scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuling Kan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to prepare naproxen enteric-coated pellets (NAP-ECPs by fluid-bed coating using QbD principle. Risk assessment was firstly performed by using failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA methodology. A Plackett–Burman design was then used for assessment of the most important variables affecting enteric-coated pellets characteristics. A Box–Behnken design was subsequently used for investigating the main, interactive, and quadratic effects of these variables on the response. By FMEA we discovered that eight factors should be considered to be high/important risk variables as compared with others. The responses of acid resistance and cumulative drug release were taken as critical quality attributes (CQAs. Pareto ranking analyses indicated that the coating weight gain (X7, triethyl citrate percentage (X1 and glycerol monostearate percentage (X2 were the most significant factors affecting the selected responses out of the eight high-risk variables. Optimization with response surface method (RSM further fully clarified the relationship between X7, X1, X2 and CQAs, and design space was established based on the constraints set on the responses. Due to the extreme coincidence of the predicted value generated by model with the observed value, the accuracy and robustness of the model were confirmed. It could be concluded that a promising NAP-ECPs was successfully designed using QbD approach in a laboratory scale.

  4. Mediterranean Sea large-scale low-frequency ocean variability and water mass formation rates from 1987 to 2007: A retrospective analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinardi, Nadia; Zavatarelli, Marco; Adani, Mario; Coppini, Giovanni; Fratianni, Claudia; Oddo, Paolo; Simoncelli, Simona; Tonani, Marina; Lyubartsev, Vladislav; Dobricic, Srdjan; Bonaduce, Antonio

    2015-03-01

    We describe a synthesis of the Mediterranean Sea circulation structure and dynamics from a 23-year-long reanalysis of the ocean circulation carried out by Adani et al. (2011). This mesoscale permitting dynamical reconstruction of past ocean variability in the Mediterranean Sea allows the study of the time-mean circulation and its low frequency, decadal, components. It is found that the time-mean circulation is composed of boundary and open ocean intensified jets at the border of cyclonic and anticyclonic gyres. The large scale basin circulation is generally characterized in the northern regions by cyclonic gyres and in its southern parts by anticyclonic gyres and eddy-dominated flow fields, with the exception of the Tyrrhenian and the northern Ionian Sea. The time-mean Tyrrhenian Sea circulation is dominated by cyclonic gyres of different intensity and intermittency. The northern Ionian Sea circulation, however, reverses in sign in two ten-year periods, the first in 1987-1996 and the second in 1997-2006, which is here called the Northern Ionian reversal phenomenon. This reversal is provoked by the excursion of the Atlantic-Ionian Stream from the middle to the northern parts of the basin. The decadal variability of other parts of the basin is characterized by changes in strength of the basin scale structures. The water mass formation rates and variability are dominated by event-like periods where the intermediate and deep waters are formed for 2-3 years at higher rates. The largest deep water formation events of the past 23 years occurred separately in the western and eastern Mediterranean basin: the first coincided with the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (Roether et al., 1996) and the second with the western Mediterranean deep water formation event in 2005-2006 (Smith et al., 2008). A new schematic of the basin-scale circulation is formulated and commented.

  5. Interdecadal variations of the South Asian summer monsoon circulation variability and the associated sea surface temperatures on interannual scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ya; Wang, Huijun; Chen, Dong

    2017-07-01

    We investigate the interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation, which has experienced a significant interdecadal change since 2000. This change is primarily influenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. During the pre-2000 period examined in this study (1979-99), the SASM is negatively correlated with eastern Pacific SSTs (the canonical ENSO mode) and positively correlated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic SST tripole (NAT). During the post-2000 period (2000-14), the SASM is negatively correlated with central Pacific SSTs and positively correlated with the positive phase of the NAT pattern. The associated Pacific SSTs change from the eastern to central region, leading to the rising (subsiding) branch of the Walker circulation moving westwards to the Maritime Continent in the latter period, which can impact the interannual variability of the SASM through modulating the wind field in the troposphere. In addition to Pacific SSTs, the NAT SSTs can propagate energy from the North Atlantic to the South Asian High (SAH) region through the wave activity flux, and then further impact the SASM via the SAH. Because the SASM is intimately related with precipitation over the Asian region, we briefly discuss the features of the precipitation patterns associated with the SASM during the two periods. The westward shifting Walker circulation leads to the shrinking and weakened anomalous westerlies of the SASM in the lower level, inducing the Maritime Continent rainfall location to move westwards and more moisture to arrive in southern China from the Pacific Ocean in the latter period.

  6. Variability in methane emissions from West Siberia's shallow boreal lakes on a regional scale and its environmental controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabrekov, Aleksandr F.; Runkle, Benjamin R. K.; Glagolev, Mikhail V.; Terentieva, Irina E.; Stepanenko, Victor M.; Kotsyurbenko, Oleg R.; Maksyutov, Shamil S.; Pokrovsky, Oleg S.

    2017-08-01

    Small lakes represent an important source of atmospheric CH4 from northern wetlands. However, spatiotemporal variations in flux magnitudes and the lack of knowledge about their main environmental controls contribute large uncertainty into the global CH4 budget. In this study, we measured methane fluxes from small lakes using chambers and bubble traps. Field investigations were carried out in July-August 2014 within the West Siberian middle and southern taiga zones. The average and median of measured methane chamber fluxes were 0.32 and 0.30 mgCH4 m-2 h-1 for middle taiga lakes and 8.6 and 4.1 mgCH4 m-2 h-1 for southern taiga lakes, respectively. Pronounced flux variability was found during measurements on individual lakes, between individual lakes and between zones. To analyze these differences and the influences of environmental controls, we developed a new dynamic process-based model. It shows good performance with emission rates from the southern taiga lakes and poor performance for individual lakes in the middle taiga region. The model shows that, in addition to well-known controls such as temperature, pH and lake depth, there are significant variations in the maximal methane production potential between these climatic zones. In addition, the model shows that variations in gas-filled pore space in lake sediments are capable of controlling the total methane emissions from individual lakes. The CH4 emissions exhibited distinct zonal differences not only in absolute values but also in their probability density functions: the middle taiga lake fluxes were best described by a lognormal distribution while the southern taiga lakes followed a power-law distribution. The latter suggests applicability of self-organized criticality theory for methane emissions from the southern taiga zone, which could help to explain the strong variability within individual lakes.

  7. Variability in methane emissions from West Siberia's shallow boreal lakes on a regional scale and its environmental controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Sabrekov

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Small lakes represent an important source of atmospheric CH4 from northern wetlands. However, spatiotemporal variations in flux magnitudes and the lack of knowledge about their main environmental controls contribute large uncertainty into the global CH4 budget. In this study, we measured methane fluxes from small lakes using chambers and bubble traps. Field investigations were carried out in July–August 2014 within the West Siberian middle and southern taiga zones. The average and median of measured methane chamber fluxes were 0.32 and 0.30 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 for middle taiga lakes and 8.6 and 4.1 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 for southern taiga lakes, respectively. Pronounced flux variability was found during measurements on individual lakes, between individual lakes and between zones. To analyze these differences and the influences of environmental controls, we developed a new dynamic process-based model. It shows good performance with emission rates from the southern taiga lakes and poor performance for individual lakes in the middle taiga region. The model shows that, in addition to well-known controls such as temperature, pH and lake depth, there are significant variations in the maximal methane production potential between these climatic zones. In addition, the model shows that variations in gas-filled pore space in lake sediments are capable of controlling the total methane emissions from individual lakes. The CH4 emissions exhibited distinct zonal differences not only in absolute values but also in their probability density functions: the middle taiga lake fluxes were best described by a lognormal distribution while the southern taiga lakes followed a power-law distribution. The latter suggests applicability of self-organized criticality theory for methane emissions from the southern taiga zone, which could help to explain the strong variability within individual lakes.

  8. Drivers of small scale variability in soil-atmosphere fluxes of CH4, N2O and CO2 in a forest soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Martin; Nicolai, Clara; Wheeler, Denis; Lang, Friedeike; Paulus, Sinikka

    2016-04-01

    Soil-atmosphere fluxes of CH4, N2O and CO2 can vary on different spatial scales, on large scales between ecosystems but also within apparently homogenous sites. While CO2 and CH4 consumption is rather evenly distibuted in well aerated soils, the production of N2O and CH4 seems to occur at hot spots that can be associated with anoxic or suboxic conditions. Small-scale variability in soil properties is well-known from field soil assesment, affecting also soil aeration and thus theoretically, greenhouse gas fluxes. In many cases different plant species are associated with different soil conditions and vegetation mapping should therefor combined with soil mapping. Our research objective was explaining the small scale variability of greenhouse gas fluxes in an apparently homogeneous 50 years old Scots Pine stand in a former riparian flood plain.We combined greenhouse gas measurements and soil physical lab measurments with field soil assessment and vegetation mapping. Measurements were conducted with at 60 points at a plot of 30 X 30 m at the Hartheim monitoring site (SW Germany). For greenhouse gas measurements a non-steady state chamber system and laser analyser, and a photoacoustic analyser were used. Our study shows that the well aerated site was a substantial sink for atmospheric CH4 (-2.4 nmol/m² s) and also a for N2O (-0.4 nmol/m² s), but less pronounced, whereas CO2 production was a magnitude larger (2.6 μmol/m² s). The spatial variability of the CH4 consumption of the soils could be explained by the variability of the soil gas diffusivity (measured in situ + using soil cores). Deviations of this clear trend were only observed at points where decomposing woody debris was directly under the litter layer. Soil texture ranged from gravel, coarse sand, fine sand to pure silt, with coarser texture having higher soil gas diffusivity. Changes in texture were rather abrupt at some positions or gradual at other positions, and were well reflected in the vegetation

  9. Sea ice and millennial-scale climate variability in the Nordic seas 90 kyr ago to present.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoff, Ulrike; Rasmussen, Tine L; Stein, Ruediger; Ezat, Mohamed M; Fahl, Kirsten

    2016-07-26

    In the light of rapidly diminishing sea ice cover in the Arctic during the present atmospheric warming, it is imperative to study the distribution of sea ice in the past in relation to rapid climate change. Here we focus on glacial millennial-scale climatic events (Dansgaard/Oeschger events) using the sea ice proxy IP25 in combination with phytoplankton proxy data and quantification of diatom species in a record from the southeast Norwegian Sea. We demonstrate that expansion and retreat of sea ice varies consistently in pace with the rapid climate changes 90 kyr ago to present. Sea ice retreats abruptly at the start of warm interstadials, but spreads rapidly during cooling phases of the interstadials and becomes near perennial and perennial during cold stadials and Heinrich events, respectively. Low-salinity surface water and the sea ice edge spreads to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and during the largest Heinrich events, probably far into the Atlantic Ocean.

  10. Cm-scale Heterogeneity in Degradation - Potential Impact on Leaching of MCPA through a Variably-Saturated Macroporous Clayey Till

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbom, Annette Elisabeth; Johnsen, Anders R.; Aamand, Jens

    with no biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes; 2) preferential flow (including a wormhole) of water with no biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes; 3) simple matrix flow of water with average biodegradation of the MCPA at all nodes, which corresponds to results derived from a conventional homogenized soil sample; 4...... both flow and degradation are associated with macropores/wormholes. Results show that cm-scale heterogeneity in degradation potential with simple matrix flow has a negligible effect on MCPA leaching at one meter below soil surface. By introducing a wormhole in the low-permeable 3D-soil modeling domain......, however, the risk of MCPA-leaching below one meter depth increase drastically with low degradation potential along the wall of macropores/wormholes....

  11. Modelling the grey zone using a global variable resolution mesh and a scale-aware convection parameterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Wim; Kramer, Matthijs; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Hartmann, Hugo; Steeneveld, Gert-Jan

    2017-04-01

    Regional models like the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model use nested domains to save computational effort. However, studies have shown that sudden resolution changes between the nests can cause artefacts. The novel global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) runs on Voronoi meshes that allow for a smooth resolution transition towards the desired high resolution in the region of interest, hereby minimizing the aforementioned artefacts. To our knowledge, this is the first study where MPAS is assessed over Europe focussing on mesoscale weather events. Three events have been assessed: a synoptic gale over the North Sea, a föhn wind in Switzerland, and a case of organised convection with hail over the Netherlands. We used three different Voronoi meshes, and compared the MPAS simulations to MeteoGroup's WRF output and observations. We also discuss and compare the computational requirements between MPAS and WRF.

  12. Measuring Variable Scales of Surface Deformation in and around the Yellowstone Caldera with TerraSAR-X Interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wicks, C. W., Jr.; Dzurisin, D.

    2014-12-01

    Utilizing three years of TerraSAR-X (TSX) Stripmap data covering the Yellowstone Caldera, Wyoming, we identify several examples showing the benefits of the high spatial and temporal resolution TSX data. Although the Stripmap footprints are small, compared to those of past SAR satellites, we are nonetheless able to track subsidence/uplift cycles of the ~50 x 80 km Yellowstone caldera using multiple strips. The Stripmap data are also useful for measuring deformation associated with the area of the North Rim anomaly, an area of repeated uplift and subsidence, ~30 km in diameter near the intersection of the north caldera rim, north-trending Mammoth-Norris Corridor, and west-northwest trending seismic belt east of Hebgen Lake. We measured ~45 mm of uplift associated with an episode that occurred mostly during the winter of 2013-2014 (as verified by GPS), and ~15 mm of subsequent subsidence in the early summer of 2014. The TSX Stripmap data have also proven effective at measuring small-scale deformation features. Because of the high-resolution of the TSX Stripmap data, we have also been able to measure many small-scale deforming features in Yellowstone National Park that are associated with apparent aquifer discharge/recharge cycles, unstable slope movement, geyser basin deformation, and deformation related to other hydrothermal features. We present an example of ~3 cm of seasonal deformation likely resulting from water movement in and out of an aquifer along the southwest caldera rim. We also document subsidence of ~1 cm/yr in a circular area nearly 0.5 km across near the vent from the Pitchstone Plateau, a thick rhyolite flow that erupted nearly 70 ka. TSX data are instrumental in identifying the seasonal variation found in some of these features, and in measuring the small spatial areas of deformation associated with other features.

  13. Millennial-scale variability in dust deposition, marine export production, and nutrient consumption in the glacial subantarctic ocean (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Garcia, A.; Sigman, D. M.; Anderson, R. F.; Ren, H. A.; Hodell, D. A.; Straub, M.; Jaccard, S.; Eglinton, T. I.; Haug, G. H.

    2013-12-01

    Based on the limitation of modern Southern Ocean phytoplankton by iron and the evidence of higher iron-bearing dust fluxes to the ocean during ice ages, it has been proposed that iron fertilization of Southern Ocean phytoplankton contributed to the reduction in atmospheric CO2 during ice ages. In the Subantarctic zone of the Atlantic Southern Ocean, glacial increases in dust flux and export production have been documented, supporting the iron fertilization hypothesis. However, these observations could be interpreted alternatively as resulting from the equatorward migration of Southern Ocean fronts during ice ages if the observed productivity rise was not accompanied by an increase in major nutrient consumption. Here, new 230Th-normalized lithogenic and opal fluxes are combined with high-resolution biomarker measurements to reconstruct millennial-scale changes in dust deposition and marine export production in the subantarctic Atlantic over the last glacial cycle. In the same record foraminifera-bound nitrogen isotopes are used to reconstruct ice age changes in surface nitrate utilization, providing a comprehensive test of the iron fertilization hypothesis. Elevation in foraminifera-bound δ15N, indicating more complete nitrate consumption, coincides with times of surface cooling and greater dust flux and export production. These observations indicate that the ice age Subantarctic was characterized by iron fertilized phytoplankton growth. The resulting strengthening of the Southern Ocean's biological pump can explain the ~40 ppm lowering of CO2 that characterizes the transitions from mid-climate states to full ice age conditions as well as the millennial-scale atmospheric CO2 fluctuations observed within the last ice age

  14. Variability of three-dimensional sea breeze structure in southern France: observations and evaluation of empirical scaling laws

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Drobinski

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea-breeze dynamics in southern France is investigated using an airborne Doppler lidar, a meteorological surface station network and radiosoundings, in the framework of the ESCOMPTE experiment conducted during summer 2001 in order to evaluate the role of thermal circulations on pollutant transport and ventilation. The airborne Doppler lidar WIND contributed to three-dimensional (3-D mapping of the sea breeze circulation in an unprecedented way. The data allow access to the onshore and offshore sea breeze extents (xsb, and to the sea breeze depth (zsb and intensity (usb. They also show that the return flow of the sea breeze circulation is very seldom seen in this area due to (i the presence of a systematic non zero background wind, and (ii the 3-D structure of the sea breeze caused by the complex coastline shape and topography. A thorough analysis is conducted on the impact of the two main valleys (Rhône and Durance valleys affecting the sea breeze circulation in the area. Finally, this dataset also allows an evaluation of the existing scaling laws used to derive the sea breeze intensity, depth and horizontal extent. The main results of this study are that (i latitude, cumulative heating and surface friction are key parameters of the sea breeze dynamics; (ii in presence of strong synoptic flow, all scaling laws fail in predicting the sea breeze characteristics (the sea breeze depth, however being the most accurately predicted; and (iii the ratio zsb/usb is approximately constant in the sea breeze flow.

  15. Increasing synoptic scale variability in atmospheric CO2 at Hateruma Island associated with increasing East-Asian emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Hashimoto

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In-situ observations of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 at Hateruma Island (24.05° N, 123.80° E, 47 m a.s.l, Japan shows large synoptic scale variations during a 6-month period from November to April, when the sampled air is predominantly of continental origin due to the Asian winter monsoon. Synoptic scale variations are extracted from the daily averaged values for the years between 1996 and 2007, along with the annual standard deviations (σCO2 and σCH4 for CO2 and CH4, respectively for the relevant 6-month period. During this 6-month period the absolute mixing ratios of CO2 and CH4 at Hateruma are also elevated compared to those at two sites in the central North Pacific Ocean. The temporal change in σCO2 shows a systematic increase over the 12-year period, with elevated excursions in 1998 and 2003; there is no clear increase in σCH4. We also find that the σCO2/σCH4 ratio increases gradually from 1996 to 2002 and rapidly after 2002 without any extreme deviations that characterised σCO2. The σCO2/σCH4 ratio correlates closely with the recent rapid increase in fossil carbon emissions from China, as indicated in the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC database. This methodology can be applied to multiple chemical tracers of sufficient lifetime, for tracking overall changes in regional emissions.

  16. Holocene lake salinity changes in the Wimmera, southeastern Australia, provide evidence for millennial-scale climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Justine; Radke, Lynda C.; Olley, Jon; Juggins, Steve; De Deckker, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Palaeosalinity records for groundwater-influenced lakes in the southwest Murray Basin were constructed from an ostracod-based, weighted-averaging transfer function, supplemented with evidence from Campylodiscus clypeus (diatom), charophyte oogonia, Coxiella striata (gastropod), Elphidium sp. (foraminifera), Daphniopsis sp. ephippia (Cladocera), and brine shrimp (Parartemia zietziana) faecal pellets, the δ18O of ostracods, and > 130 μm quartz sand counts. The chronology is based on optically stimulated luminescence and calibrated radiocarbon ages. Relatively wet conditions are marked by lower salinities between 9600 yr and 5700 yr ago, but mutually exclusive high- and low-salinity ostracod communities suggest substantial variability in effective precipitation in the early Holocene. A drier climate was firmly in place by 4500 yr and is marked at the groundwater-dominated NW Jacka Lake by an increase in aeolian quartz and, at Jacka Lake, by a switch from surface-water to groundwater dominance. Short-lived, low-salinity events at 8800, 7200, 5900, 4800, 2400, 1300 and 400 yr are similar in timing and number to those recorded on Australia's southern continental shelf, and globally, and provide evidence for the existence of the ~ 1500-yr cycle in mainland southern Australia. We surmise that these are cool events associated with periodic equatorward shifts in the westerly wind circulation.

  17. Optimization of process variables for minimization of byproduct formation during fermentation of blackstrap molasses to ethanol at industrial scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshad, M; Khan, Z M; Khalil-ur-Rehman; Shah, F A; Rajoka, M I

    2008-11-01

    To investigate the effect of molasses concentration, initial pH of molasses medium, and inoculum's size to maximize ethanol and minimize methanol, fusel alcohols, acetic acid and aldehydes in the fermentation mash in industrial fermentors. Initial studies to optimize temperature, nitrogen source, phosphorous source, sulfur supplement and minerals were performed. The essential nutrients were urea (2 kg in 60 m(3)), 0.5 l each of commercial phosphoric acid and sulfuric acid (for pH control) added at the inoculum preparation stage only. Yields of ethanol, methanol, fusel alcohols, total acids and aldehydes per 100-l fermentation broth were monitored. Molasses at 29 degrees Brix (degree of dissolved sugars in water), initial pH 4.5, inoculum size 30% (v/v) and anaerobic fermentation supported maximum ethanol (7.8%) with Y(P/S) = 238 l ethanol per tonne molasses (96.5% yield) (8.2% increase in yield), and had significantly lower values of byproducts than those in control experiments. Optimization of process variables resulted in higher ethanol yield (8.2%) and reduced yield of methanol, fusel alcohols, acids and aldehydes. More than 5% substrate is converted into byproducts. Eliminating or reducing their formation can increase ethanol yield by Saccharomyces cerevisiae, decrease the overall cost of fermentation process and improve the quality of ethanol.

  18. Daily scale wintertime sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esnaola, G.; Sáenz, J.; Zorita, E.; Fontán, A.; Valencia, V.; Lazure, P.

    2013-07-01

    The combination of remotely sensed gappy Sea surface temperature (SST) images with the missing data filling DINEOF (data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions) technique, followed by a principal component analysis of the reconstructed data, has been used to identify the time evolution and the daily scale variability of the wintertime surface signal of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), or Navidad, during the 1981-2010 period. An exhaustive comparison with the existing bibliography, and the vertical temperature and salinity profiles related to its extremes over the Bay of Biscay area, show that the obtained time series accurately reflect the IPC-Navidad variability. Once a time series for the evolution of the SST signal of the current over the last decades is well established, this time series is used to propose a physical mechanism in relation to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, involving both atmospheric and oceanic variables. According to the proposed mechanism, an atmospheric circulation anomaly observed in both the 500 hPa and the surface levels generates atmospheric surface level pressure, wind-stress and heat-flux anomalies. In turn, those surface level atmospheric anomalies induce mutually coherent SST and sea level anomalies over the North Atlantic area, and locally, in the Bay of Biscay area. These anomalies, both locally over the Bay of Biscay area and over the North Atlantic, are in agreement with several mechanisms that have separately been related to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, i.e. the south-westerly winds, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) effect, the topographic β effect and a weakened North Atlantic gyre.

  19. Daily scale wintertime sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Esnaola

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The combination of remotely sensed gappy Sea surface temperature (SST images with the missing data filling DINEOF (data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions technique, followed by a principal component analysis of the reconstructed data, has been used to identify the time evolution and the daily scale variability of the wintertime surface signal of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC, or Navidad, during the 1981–2010 period. An exhaustive comparison with the existing bibliography, and the vertical temperature and salinity profiles related to its extremes over the Bay of Biscay area, show that the obtained time series accurately reflect the IPC-Navidad variability. Once a time series for the evolution of the SST signal of the current over the last decades is well established, this time series is used to propose a physical mechanism in relation to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, involving both atmospheric and oceanic variables. According to the proposed mechanism, an atmospheric circulation anomaly observed in both the 500 hPa and the surface levels generates atmospheric surface level pressure, wind-stress and heat-flux anomalies. In turn, those surface level atmospheric anomalies induce mutually coherent SST and sea level anomalies over the North Atlantic area, and locally, in the Bay of Biscay area. These anomalies, both locally over the Bay of Biscay area and over the North Atlantic, are in agreement with several mechanisms that have separately been related to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, i.e. the south-westerly winds, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR effect, the topographic β effect and a weakened North Atlantic gyre.

  20. Impact of millennial-scale Holocene climate variability on eastern North American terrestrial ecosystems: Pollen-based climatic reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Korejwo, D.A.; Meyers, S.R.

    2005-01-01

    We present paleoclimatic evidence for a series of Holocene millennial-scale cool intervals in eastern North America that occurred every ???1400 years and lasted ???300-500 years, based on pollen data from Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The cool events are indicated by significant decreases in pine pollen, which we interpret as representing decreases in January temperatures of between 0.2??and 2??C. These temperature decreases include excursions during the Little Ice Age (???1300-1600 AD) and the 8 ka cold event. The timing of the pine minima is correlated with a series of quasi-periodic cold intervals documented by various proxies in Greenland, North Atlantic, and Alaskan cores and with solar minima interpreted from cosmogenic isotope records. These events may represent changes in circumpolar vortex size and configuration in response to intervals of decreased solar activity, which altered jet stream patterns to enhance meridional circulation over eastern North America. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Variability of synoptic-scale quasi-stationary thermohaline stratification patterns in the Gulf of Finland in summer 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Liblik

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available We present and analyze high-resolution observational data of thermohaline structure and currents acquired in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea, using an autonomous buoy profiler and bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler during July–August 2009. Vertical profiles of temperature and salinity were measured in the upper 50-m layer with a 3 h time resolution, and vertical profiles of current velocity and direction were recorded with a 10 min time resolution. Although large temporal variations of vertical temperature and salinity distributions were revealed, it was possible to define several periods with quasi-stationary vertical thermohaline structure. These quasi-stationary stratification patterns persisted for 4–15 days and were dominated by certain physical processes: upwelling, relaxation of upwelling, estuarine circulation and its wind-induced reversal, and downwelling. Vertical profiles of current velocities supported the concept of synoptic-scale, quasi-stationary periods of hydrophysical fields, characterized by distinct layered flow structures and current oscillations. To estimate the contribution of different processes to the changes in stratification, a simple conceptual model was developed. The model accounts for heat flux through the sea surface, wind mixing, wind-induced transport (parallel to the horizontal salinity gradient in the upper layer, and estuarine circulation. It reproduced observed changes in vertical stratification reasonably well. The largest discrepancies between observations and model results were found when water motions across the Gulf and associated vertical displacements of isopycnals (upwelling or downwelling were dominant processes.

  2. Geochemical evolution of the Critical Zone across variable time scales informs concentration-discharge relationships: Jemez River Basin Critical Zone Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Jennifer C.; Schaumberg, Courtney; Perdrial, Julia; Harpold, Adrian; Vázquez-Ortega, Angélica; Rasmussen, Craig; Vinson, David; Zapata-Rios, Xavier; Brooks, Paul D.; Meixner, Thomas; Pelletier, Jon; Derry, Louis; Chorover, Jon

    2017-05-01

    This study investigates the influence of water, carbon, and energy fluxes on solute production and transport through the Jemez Critical Zone (CZ) and impacts on C-Q relationships over variable spatial and temporal scales. Chemical depletion-enrichment profiles of soils, combined with regolith thickness and groundwater data indicate the importance to stream hydrochemistry of incongruent dissolution of silicate minerals during deep bedrock weathering, which is primarily limited by water fluxes, in this highly fractured, young volcanic terrain. Under high flow conditions (e.g., spring snowmelt), wetting of soil and regolith surfaces and presence of organic acids promote mineral dissolution and provide a constant supply of base cations, Si, and DIC to soil water and groundwater. Mixing of waters from different hydrochemical reservoirs in the near stream environment during "wet" periods leads to the chemostatic behavior of DIC, base cations, and Si in stream flow. Metals transported by organic matter complexation (i.e., Ge, Al) and/or colloids (i.e., Al) during periods of soil saturation and lateral connectivity to the stream display a positive relationship with Q. Variable Si-Q relationships, under all but the highest flow conditions, can be explained by nonconservative transport and precipitation of clay minerals, which influences long versus short-term Si weathering fluxes. By combining measurements of the CZ obtained across different spatial and temporal scales, we were able to constrain weathering processes in different hydrological reservoirs that may be flushed to the stream during hydrologic events, thereby informing C-Q relationships.

  3. Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nenes, Athanasios [Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2017-06-23

    The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated new parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.

  4. Moving from pixel to object scale when inverting radiative transfer models for quantitative estimation of biophysical variables in vegetation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atzberger, C.

    2013-12-01

    The robust and accurate retrieval of vegetation biophysical variables using RTM is seriously hampered by the ill-posedness of the inverse problem. The contribution presents our object-based inversion approach and evaluate it against measured data. The proposed method takes advantage of the fact that nearby pixels are generally more similar than those at a larger distance. For example, within a given vegetation patch, nearby pixels often share similar leaf angular distributions. This leads to spectral co-variations in the n-dimensional spectral features space, which can be used for regularization purposes. Using a set of leaf area index (LAI) measurements (n=26) acquired over alfalfa, sugar beet and garlic crops of the Barrax test site (Spain), it is demonstrated that the proposed regularization using neighbourhood information yields more accurate results compared to the traditional pixel-based inversion. Principle of the ill-posed inverse problem and the proposed solution illustrated in the red-nIR feature space using (PROSAIL). [A] spectral trajectory ('soil trajectory') obtained for one leaf angle (ALA) and one soil brightness (αsoil), when LAI varies between 0 and 10, [B] 'soil trajectories' for 5 soil brightness values and three leaf angles, [C] ill-posed inverse problem: different combinations of ALA × αsoil yield an identical crossing point, [D] object-based RTM inversion; only one 'soil trajectory' fits all nine pixelswithin a gliding (3×3) window. The black dots (plus the rectangle=central pixel) represent the hypothetical position of nine pixels within a 3×3 (gliding) window. Assuming that over short distances (× 1 pixel) variations in soil brightness can be neglected, the proposed object-based inversion searches for one common set of ALA × αsoil so that the resulting 'soil trajectory' best fits the nine measured pixels. Ground measured vs. retrieved LAI values for three crops. Left: proposed object-based approach. Right: pixel-based inversion

  5. Small-scale variability in geomorphological settings influences mangrove-derived organic matter export in a tropical bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signa, Geraldina; Mazzola, Antonio; Kairo, James; Vizzini, Salvatrice

    2017-02-01

    Organic matter (OM) exchanges between adjacent habitats affect the dynamics and functioning of coastal systems, as well as the role of the different primary producers as energy and nutrient sources in food webs. Elemental (C, N, C : N) and isotope (δ13C) signatures and fatty acid (FA) profiles were used to assess the influence of geomorphological setting in two climatic seasons on the export and fate of mangrove OM across a tidally influenced tropical area, Gazi Bay (Kenya). The main results indicate that tidal transport, along with riverine runoff, plays a significant role in the distribution of mangrove organic matter. In particular, a marked spatial variability in the export of organic matter from mangroves to adjacent habitats was due to the different settings of the creeks flowing into the bay. Kinondo Creek acted as a mangrove retention site, where export of mangrove material was limited to the contiguous intertidal area, while Kidogoweni Creek acted as a flow-through system, from which mangrove material spreads into the bay, especially in the rainy season. This pattern was evident from the isotopic signature of primary producers, which were more 13C-depleted in the Kinondo Creek and nearby, due to the lower dilution of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) pool, typically depleted as an effect of intense mangrove mineralisation. Despite the trapping efficiency of the seagrass canopy, suspended particulate OM showed the important contribution of mangroves across the whole bay, up to the coral reef, as an effect of the strong ebb tide. Overall, mixing model outcomes indicated a widespread mixed contribution of both allochthonous and autochthonous OM sources across Gazi Bay. Moreover, FAs indicated a notable contribution of brown macroalgae and bacteria in both sediment and suspended pools. These results suggest that ecological connectivity in Gazi Bay is strongly influenced by geomorphological setting, which may have far-reaching consequences for the

  6. Long-term oceanographic variability of the South Adriatic Gyre (Mediterranean Sea) and a large-scale climate pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabrang, Laleh; Menna, Milena; Pizzi, Cinzia; Lavigne, Heloise; Civitarese, Giuseppe; Gacic, Miroslav

    2015-04-01

    The interannual variability of the South Adriatic Gyre and its relation to the wind vorticity and the large climatic pattern (North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), has been studied using the time series of satellite altimetry data and ocean surface wind products. The Adriatic Sea is a source of main component of the dense water for the entire Eastern Mediterranean - Eastern Mediterranean) Deep water. The cyclonic circulation observed in the South Adriatic area is mainly sustained by the wind forcing, as suggested by the positive correlation between the rate of change of the current vorticity and the wind stress vorticity. Nevertheless, the influence of vorticity advection from the adjacent area (North Ionian Sea) cannot be ignored and it is more significant during the anticyclonic phase of Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillation System. The geostrophic current vorticities of the South Adriatic and North Ionian Seas are correlated with a time lag of 15 months, which corresponds to an advection speed of ~1 cm/sec. The different wind configuration, observed during the positive (NAO+) and negative (NAO-) NAO states, induces the stronger vorticity during NAO- and vice versa. Moreover, the positive correlation between the NAO index and the frequency of the cold and dry Northerly wind suggests the strengthening of the winter convection, and of the consecutive deep water formation, during the NAO+ states. Southern Adriatic area, being subject to the winter convection, is characterized by the late winter/early spring algal bloom. Spatially averaged surface chorophyll concentrations were correlated with the northerly wind frequencies and it was shown that the two biological productivity regimes likely exist: the subpolar one and the subtropical one depending on the frequency of windy days. We also show that the bloom timing is a linear function of the wind frequency and it can vary within the range of almost two months.

  7. Implementation of a reference-scaled average bioequivalence approach for highly variable generic drug products of agomelatine in Chinese subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fang Tang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to apply the reference-scaled average bioequivalence (RSABE approach to evaluate the bioequivalence of 2 formulations of agomelatine, and to investigate the pharmacokinetic properties of agomelatine in Chinese healthy male subjects. This was performed in a single-dose, randomized-sequence, open-label, four-way crossover study with a one-day washout period between doses. Healthy Chinese males were randomly assigned to receive 25 mg of either the test or reference formulation. The formulations were considered bioequivalent if 90% confidence intervals (CIs for the log-transformed ratios and ratio of geometric means (GMR of AUC and Cmax of agomelatine were within the predetermined bioequivalence range based on RSABE method. Results showed that both of the 90% CIs for the log-transformed ratios of AUC and Cmax of 7-desmethyl-agomelatine and 3-hydroxy-agomelatine were within the predetermined bioequivalence range. The 90% CIs for natural log-transformed ratios of Cmax, AUC0–t and AUC0–∞ of agomelatine (104.42–139.86, 101.33–123.83 and 97.90–117.94 were within the RSABE acceptance limits, and 3-hydroxy-agomelatine (105.55–123.03, 101.95–109.10 and 101.72–108.70 and 7-desmethyl-agomelatine (104.50–125.23, 102.36–111.50 and 101.62–110.64 were within the FDA bioequivalence definition intervals (0.80–1.25 for AUC and 0.75–1.33 for Cmax. The RSABE approach was successful in evaluating the bioequivalence of these two formulations.

  8. Evaluating the role of soil variability on groundwater pollution and recharge at regional scale by integrating a process-based vadose zone model in a stochastic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Antonio; Comegna, Alessandro; Dragonetti, Giovanna; Lamaddalena, Nicola; Zdruli, Pandi

    2013-04-01

    Interpreting and predicting the evolution of water resources and soils at regional scale are continuing challenges for natural scientists. Examples include non-point source (NPS) pollution of soil and surface and subsurface water from agricultural chemicals and pathogens, as well as overexploitation of groundwater resources. The presence and build up of NPS pollutants may be harmful for both soil and groundwater resources. The accumulation of salts and trace elements in soils can significantly impact crop productivity, while loading of salts, nitrates, trace elements and pesticides into groundwater supplies can deteriorate a source of drinking and irrigation water. Consequently, predicting the spatial distribution and fate of NPS pollutants in soils at applicative scales is now considered crucial for maintaining the fragile balance between crop productivity and the negative environmental impacts of NPS pollutants, which is a basis of sustainable agriculture. Soil scientists and hydrologists are regularly asked to assist state agencies to understand these critical environmental issues. The most frequent inquiries are related to the development of mathematical models needed for analyzing the impacts of alternative land-use and best management use and management of soil and water resources. Different modelling solutions exist, mainly differing on the role of the vadose zone and its horizontal and vertical variability in the predictive models. The vadose zone (the region from the soil surface to the groundwater surface) is a complex physical, chemical and biological ecosystem that controls the passage of NPS pollutants from the soil surface where they have been deposited or accumulated due to agricultural activities, to groundwater. Physically based distributed hydrological models require the internal variability of the vadose zone be explored at a variety of scales. The equations describing fluxes and storage of water and solutes in the unsaturated zone used in these

  9. A future Demand Side Management (DSM) opportunity for utility as variable renewable penetrate scale up using agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A.; Bhattacharjee, A.; Modi, V.; Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.; Kocaman Ayse, S.; Chaudhary, S.; Kumar, A.; Ganapathy, A.; Kumar, A.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Energy demand management, also known as demand side management (DSM), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as smart metering, incentive based schemes, payments for turning off loads or rescheduling loads. Usually, the goal of demand side management is to encourage the consumer to use less power during periods of peak demand, or to move the time of energy use to off-peak times. Peak demand management does not necessarily decrease total energy consumption, but could be expected to reduce the need for investments in networks and/or power plants for meeting peak demands. Electricity use can vary dramatically on short and medium time frames, and the pricing system may not reflect the instantaneous cost as additional higher-cost that are brought on-line. In addition, the capacity or willingness of electricity consumers to adjust to prices by altering elasticity of demand may be low, particularly over short time frames. In the scenario of Indian grid setup, the retail customers do not follow real-time pricing and it is difficult to incentivize the utility companies for continuing the peak demand supply. A question for the future is how deeper penetration of renewable will be handled? This is a challenging problem since one has to deal with high variability, while managing loss of load probabilities. In the case of managing the peak demand using agriculture, in the future as smart metering matures with automatic turn on/off for a pump, it will become possible to provide an ensured amount of water or energy to the farmer while keeping the grid energized for 24 hours. Supply scenarios will include the possibility of much larger penetration of solar and wind into the grid. While, in absolute terms these sources are small contributors, their role will inevitably grow but DSM using agriculture could help reduce the capital cost. The other option is of advancing or delaying pump operating cycle even by several hours, will still ensure

  10. Incorporating Endmember Variability into Linear Unmixing of Coarse Resolution Imagery: Mapping Large-Scale Impervious Surface Abundance Using a Hierarchically Object-Based Spectral Mixture Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengbin Deng

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available As an important indicator of anthropogenic impacts on the Earth’s surface, it is of great necessity to accurately map large-scale urbanized areas for various science and policy applications. Although spectral mixture analysis (SMA can provide spatial distribution and quantitative fractions for better representations of urban areas, this technique is rarely explored with 1-km resolution imagery. This is due mainly to the absence of image endmembers associated with the mixed pixel problem. Consequently, as the most profound source of error in SMA, endmember variability has rarely been considered with coarse resolution imagery. These issues can be acute for fractional land cover mapping due to the significant spectral variations of numerous land covers across a large study area. To solve these two problems, a hierarchically object-based SMA (HOBSMA was developed (1 to extrapolate local endmembers for regional spectral library construction; and (2 to incorporate endmember variability into linear spectral unmixing of MODIS 1-km imagery for large-scale impervious surface abundance mapping. Results show that by integrating spatial constraints from object-based image segments and endmember extrapolation techniques into multiple endmember SMA (MESMA of coarse resolution imagery, HOBSMA improves the discriminations between urban impervious surfaces and other land covers with well-known spectral confusions (e.g., bare soil and water, and particularly provides satisfactory representations of urban fringe areas and small settlements. HOBSMA yields promising abundance results at the km-level scale with relatively high precision and small bias, which considerably outperforms the traditional simple mixing model and the aggregated MODIS land cover classification product.

  11. Centennial-scale surface hydrology off Portugal during marine isotope stage 3: Insights from planktonic foraminiferal fauna variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vautravers, Maryline J.; Shackleton, Nicholas J.

    2006-09-01

    The marine isotopic stage 3 (MIS3) at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1060 (Gulf Stream) shows both sharp onset and end of interstadials, the existence of very short lived warm events during stadials, and points to differences in detail between the sea surface temperature (SST) record from the western North Atlantic and the atmospheric temperature record inferred from δ18O in Greenland ice. Investigating MIS3 and obtaining comparable data from other locations appears crucial. The eastern Atlantic provides well-documented records of climate changes. We have selected a core from off Portugal and use it to examine Dansgaard/Oeschger events (D/O) at centennial-scale resolution (139 years on average between two data points). We have obtained a faunal data set for core MD01-2444, 37°N, 10°W, 2600 m water depth and use a group of species (Globigerina bulloides + Globigerinita glutinata) as a proxy of upwelling intensity driven by trade winds intensity changes. We tent