Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: The Australian case

Science.gov (United States)

Grant J. Williamson; Lynda D. Prior; Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane; Brett P. Murphy; David M. J. S. Bowman

2016-01-01

Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-...

Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

Science.gov (United States)

Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

2017-05-01

Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

Science.gov (United States)

Zeyringer, Marianne; Price, James; Fais, Birgit; Li, Pei-Hao; Sharp, Ed

2018-05-01

The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

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F. Dentener

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979--1993 re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying emissions including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions (45--90 N, 0--45 N, 0--45 S, 45--90 S we find good agreement in each region between (top-down calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979--1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. In studies of methane trends it is most important to include the trends and variability of the oxidant fields. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8Tg CH4 yr-1, and likely related to wetland emissions and/or biomass burning.

Tropopause referenced ozone climatology and inter-annual variability (1994–2003 from the MOZAIC programme

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Thouret

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The MOZAIC programme collects ozone and water vapour data using automatic equipment installed on board five long-range Airbus A340 aircraft flying regularly all over the world since August 1994. Those measurements made between September 1994 and August 1996 allowed the first accurate ozone climatology at 9–12 km altitude to be generated. The seasonal variability of the tropopause height has always provided a problem when constructing climatologies in this region. To remove any signal from the seasonal and synoptic scale variability in tropopause height we have chosen in this further study of these and subsequent data to reference our climatology to the altitude of the tropopause. We define the tropopause as a mixing zone 30 hPa thick across the 2 pvu potential vorticity surface. A new ozone climatology is now available for levels characteristic of the upper troposphere (UT and the lower stratosphere (LS regardless of the seasonal variations of the tropopause over the period 1994–2003. Moreover, this new presentation has allowed an estimation of the monthly mean climatological ozone concentration at the tropopause showing a sine seasonal variation with a maximum in May (120 ppbv and a minimum in November (65 ppbv. Besides, we present a first assessment of the inter-annual variability of ozone in this particular critical region. The overall increase in the UTLS is about 1%/yr for the 9 years sampled. However, enhanced concentrations about 10–15 % higher than the other years were recorded in 1998 and 1999 in both the UT and the LS. This so-called '1998–1999 anomaly' may be attributed to a combination of different processes involving large scale modes of atmospheric variability, circulation features and local or global pollution, but the most dominant one seems to involve the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO as we find a strong positive correlation (above 0.60 between ozone recorded in the upper troposphere and the NAO

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5-day-planetary-waves in MLT observed by TIMED/SABER

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Huang, Yingying; Li, Huijun; Li, Chongyin; Zhang, Shaodong

2017-04-01

Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DWs in 20-110 km, 52°S-52°N, 2002-2016 are studied by using v2.0 TIMED/SABER kinetic temperature data. Firstly, global annual variations of 6.5DW's spectral power and amplitudes are obtained. Strong wave amplitudes emerge in 30°S/N-50°S/N, and peaks in altitude separate in stratosphere (40-50 km), mesosphere (80-90 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-110 km), respectively. Their annual variations are similar in both hemispheres, but different in altitude. In 40-50 km, the annual maximums emerge mostly in winters: Dec.-Jan. in the NH and Jul.-Aug. in the SH. In MLT, annual peaks arise twice in each half of year. In 80-90 km, they're mainly in equinoctial seasons and winters: May, Aug.-Sep. and Jan. in the NH and Feb., Nov. and May in the SH. In 100-110 km, they emerge mainly in equinoctial seasons: Apr.-May and Aug.-Sep. in the NH and Feb.-Mar. and Oct.-Nov. in the SH. Then, inter-annual variations of 6.5DW amplitudes during the 14-year period are studied. Frequency spectra of monthly-mean amplitudes show that, main dynamics in long-term variations of 6.5DWs are AO and SAO in both hemispheres. Besides, QBO are visible in both hemispheres and 4-month period signals are noticed in the NH in MLT. Amplitudes of SAO, AO and QBO are obtained by bandpass filter. Their amplitudes are comparable in stratosphere and mesosphere, and QBO signals are weaker than the others in the LT. Vertical variations both of SAO and AO amplitudes are very stable. AO structures have little inter-annual changes, while inter-annual variations of SAO are significant and are related with 6.5DW. It means that annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DW are mainly controlled by AO and SAO, respectively. Although QBO signals are weaker and their variations are less regular than AO and SAO, their phases seems to relate with inter-annual variations of 6.5DW as well.

Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

2016-09-15

Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the Black Sea shelf

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, G. I.; Wobus, F.; Aleynik, D. L.

2011-02-01

Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW) on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature as well as their relations to physical parameters of both shelf and deep-sea waters. First, large data sets of in-situ observations over the 20th century are compiled into high-resolution monthly climatology at different depth levels. Then, the temperature anomalies from the climatic mean are calculated and aggregated into spatial compartments and seasonal bins to reveal temporal evolution of the BSW. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water body between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal) which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season (May-November) due to the formation of a seasonal pycnocline. The effects of atmospheric processes at the surface on the BSW are hence suppressed as well as the action of the "biological pump". The vertical extent of the near- bottom waters is determined based on energy considerations and the structure of the seasonal pycnocline, whilst the horizontal extent is controlled by the shelf break, where strong along-slope currents hinder exchanges with the deep sea. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the area of the shelf during the summer stratification period. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from observations during the May-November period for the 2nd half of the 20th century. The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by cooling of the BSW during 1980-2001. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter

Patterns and controls of inter-annual variability in the terrestrial carbon budget

Science.gov (United States)

Marcolla, Barbara; Rödenbeck, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro

2017-08-01

The terrestrial carbon fluxes show the largest variability among the components of the global carbon cycle and drive most of the temporal variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Understanding the environmental controls and trends of the terrestrial carbon budget is therefore essential to predict the future trajectories of the CO2 airborne fraction and atmospheric concentrations. In the present work, patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon net ecosystem exchange (NEE) have been analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations from the FLUXNET database (La Thuile and 2015 releases), the MPI-MTE (model tree ensemble) bottom-up product resulting from the global upscaling of site-level fluxes, and the Jena CarboScope Inversion, a top-down estimate of surface fluxes obtained from observed CO2 concentrations and an atmospheric transport model. Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of IAV were investigated between the three data sources. Results show that the global average of IAV at FLUXNET sites, quantified as the standard deviation of annual NEE, peaks in arid ecosystems and amounts to ˜ 120 gC m-2 y-1, almost 6 times more than the values calculated from the two global products (15 and 20 gC m-2 y-1 for MPI-MTE and the Jena Inversion, respectively). Most of the temporal variability observed in the last three decades of the MPI-MTE and Jena Inversion products is due to yearly anomalies, whereas the temporal trends explain only about 15 and 20 % of the variability, respectively. Both at the site level and on a global scale, the IAV of NEE is driven by the gross primary productivity and in particular by the cumulative carbon flux during the months when land acts as a sink. Altogether these results offer a broad view on the magnitude, spatial patterns and environmental drivers of IAV from a variety of data sources that can be

Inter annual variability of the global carbon cycle (1992-2005) inferred by inversion of atmospheric CO2 and δ13CO2 measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rayner, P.J.; Pickett-Heaps, C.; Law, R.M.; Allison, C.E.; Francey, R.J.; Trudinger, C.M.

2008-01-01

We present estimates of the surface sources and sinks of CO 2 for 1992 - 2005 deduced from atmospheric inversions. We use atmospheric CO 2 records from 67 sites and 10 δ 13 CO 2 records. We use two atmospheric models to increase the robustness of the results. The results suggest that inter annual variability is dominated by the tropical land. Statistically significant variability in the tropical Pacific supports recent ocean modeling studies in that region. The northern land also shows significant variability. In particular, there is a large positive anomaly in 2003 in north Asia, which we associate with anomalous biomass burning. Results using δ 13 CO 2 and CO 2 are statistically consistent with those using only CO 2 , suggesting that it is valid to use both types of data together. An objective analysis of residuals suggests that our treatment of uncertainties in CO 2 is conservative, while those for δ 13 CO 2 are optimistic, highlighting problems in our simple isotope model. Finally, δ 13 CO 2 measurements offer a good constraint to nearby land regions, suggesting an ongoing value in these measurements for studies of inter annual variability. (authors)

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the phytoplankton communities in an upwelling area of the Alborán Sea (SW Mediterranean Sea

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Jesús M. Mercado

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Temporal variability (seasonal and inter-annual in the assembly of phytoplankton communities from the northern Alborán Sea was investigated. For this purpose, the taxonomic composition of the micro- and nano-phytoplankton communities at three fixed stations was determined every three months from 1994 to 2002. A total of 357 different taxa were identified. Most of them (about 54% were diatom species belonging to 57 genera. Dinoflagellates and coccolitophorids accounted for 118 and 30 taxa respectively. Two time periods could be differentiated with respect to the cell abundance. Thus, the mean abundance from 1994 to 1999 was 338 cell ml-1 and it dropped to about 60 cell ml-1 during the period 2000-2002. Diatoms and un-identified small flagellates dominated the communities during this first period, although a significant increase in the abundance of coccolitophorids occurred after 1997. Pseudo-nitzschia, Leptocylindrus and Chaetoceros were the dominant genera. In contrast, the coccolitophorids Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa spp. quantitatively dominated the communities from 2000 to 2002. These shifts in the community assembly were assessed by performing a sample-oriented stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA. The analysis separated the samples into three year-groups, with great inter-annual variability. In contrast, the SDA did not find any seasonal sucessional pattern. In spite of this result, chlorophyll a and cell abundance tended to be higher in the spring period, which has been described for the whole Alborán basin. The nutrient concentrations in the 75 m upper seawater layer had inter-annual fluctuations. Thus, NO3-+NO2-, PO4-3 and Si(OH4 concentrations decreased significantly in 1997-1998. Additionally, lower Si(OH4 concentrations and Si:P molar ratios were obtained in 2000. These results suggest that the inter-annual shifts in the phytoplankton taxonomic composition were due to alterations in the nutrient regime. In this paper we

Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

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Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have

Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf

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G. I. Shapiro

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra-seasonal and inter-annual temperature variations. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water mass between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σ_θ = 14.2 isopycnal which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season due to formation of a seasonal pycnocline. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from in-situ observations taken over the 2nd half of the 20th century. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the shelf area during the summer stratification period (May–November.The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by a cold phase between 1985 and 1995 and a further warming after 1995. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter convection is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the BSW significantly reduces during the warm season. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. It is shown that temperature in the BSW is stronger correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters (CIW in the deep sea than with the severity of the previous winters, thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the western Black Sea shelf than effects of winter convection on the shelf itself.

Intra-seasonal and Inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio over rain-shadow region of North peninsular India

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Morwal, S. B.; Narkhedkar, S. G.; Padmakumari, B.; Maheskumar, R. S.; Deshpande, C. G.; Kulkarni, J. R.

2017-05-01

Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio (BR) have been studied over the rain-shadow region of north peninsular India during summer monsoon season. Daily grid point data of latent heat flux (LHF), sensible heat flux (SHF) from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1970-2014 have been used to compute daily area-mean BR. Daily grid point rainfall data at a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° from APHRODITE's Water Resources for the available period 1970-2007 have been used to study the association between rainfall and BR. The study revealed that BR rapidly decreases from 4.1 to 0.29 in the month of June and then remains nearly constant at the same value (≤0.1) in the rest of the season. High values of BR in the first half of June are indicative of intense thermals and convective clouds with higher bases. Low values of BR from July to September period are indicative of weak thermals and convective clouds with lower bases. Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of BR is found to be inversely related to precipitation over the region. BR analysis indicates that the land surface characteristics of the study region during July-September are similar to that over oceanic regions as far as intensity of thermals and associated cloud microphysical properties are concerned. Similar variation of BR is found in El Nino and La Nina years. During June, an increasing trend is observed in SHF and BR and decreasing trend in LHF from 1976 to 2014. Increasing trend in the SHF is statistically significant.

Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Maclaurin, Galen [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Roberts, Billy [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rosenlieb, Evan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-08-25

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY) resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.

Multi-tissue analyses reveal limited inter-annual and seasonal variation in mercury exposure in an Antarctic penguin community.

Science.gov (United States)

Brasso, Rebecka L; Polito, Michael J; Emslie, Steven D

2014-10-01

Inter-annual variation in tissue mercury concentrations in birds can result from annual changes in the bioavailability of mercury or shifts in dietary composition and/or trophic level. We investigated potential annual variability in mercury dynamics in the Antarctic marine food web using Pygoscelis penguins as biomonitors. Eggshell membrane, chick down, and adult feathers were collected from three species of sympatrically breeding Pygoscelis penguins during the austral summers of 2006/2007-2010/2011. To evaluate the hypothesis that mercury concentrations in penguins exhibit significant inter-annual variation and to determine the potential source of such variation (dietary or environmental), we compared tissue mercury concentrations with trophic levels as indicated by δ(15)N values from all species and tissues. Overall, no inter-annual variation in mercury was observed in adult feathers suggesting that mercury exposure, on an annual scale, was consistent for Pygoscelis penguins. However, when examining tissues that reflected more discrete time periods (chick down and eggshell membrane) relative to adult feathers, we found some evidence of inter-annual variation in mercury exposure during penguins' pre-breeding and chick rearing periods. Evidence of inter-annual variation in penguin trophic level was also limited suggesting that foraging ecology and environmental factors related to the bioavailability of mercury may provide more explanatory power for mercury exposure compared to trophic level alone. Even so, the variable strength of relationships observed between trophic level and tissue mercury concentrations across and within Pygoscelis penguin species suggest that caution is required when selecting appropriate species and tissue combinations for environmental biomonitoring studies in Antarctica.

Inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic from semi-arid part of Deccan Volcanic Province, India: climatic and hydrogeochemical perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Kale, Sanjay S; Ghole, Vikram Shantaram; Pawar, N J; Jagtap, Deepak V

2014-01-01

Semi-arid Karha basin from Deccan Volcanic Province, India was investigated for inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic. The number of reported urolith patient, weather station data and groundwater quality results was used to assess impact of geoenvironment on urolithiasis. Data of 7081 urolith patient were processed for epidemiological study. Gender class, age group, year-wise cases and urolith type were studied in epidemiology. Rainfall, temperature, pan evaporation and sunshine hours were used to correlate urolithiasis. Further, average values of groundwater parameters were correlated with the number of urolith episodes. A total of 52 urolith samples were collected from hospitals and analysed using FTIR technique to identify dominant urolith type in study area. Result shows that male population is more prone, age group of 20-40 is more susceptible and calcium oxalate uroliths are dominant in study area. Year-wise distribution revealed that there is steady increase in urolithiasis with inflation in drought years. In climatic parameters, hot days are significantly correlated with urolithiasis. In groundwater quality, EC, Na and F are convincingly correlated with urolith patients, which concludes the strong relation between geo-environment and urolithiasis.

Inter Annual Variability of the Acoustic Propagation in the Yellow Sea Identified from a Synoptic Monthly Gridded Database as Compared with GDEM

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-01

resolution in SMG-WOD, and thus less data levels for such shallow water . A comprehensive collection of salinity images by years can be found in the...DISTRIBUTION CODE 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words ) This research investigates the inter-annual acoustic variability in the Yellow Sea identified from...is a semi-enclosed basin located between China and Korea with a mean depth of 40m; acoustics are driven by shallow water dynamics and interaction with

Patterns and controls of inter-annual variability in the terrestrial carbon budget

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B. Marcolla

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The terrestrial carbon fluxes show the largest variability among the components of the global carbon cycle and drive most of the temporal variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Understanding the environmental controls and trends of the terrestrial carbon budget is therefore essential to predict the future trajectories of the CO2 airborne fraction and atmospheric concentrations. In the present work, patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability (IAV of carbon net ecosystem exchange (NEE have been analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations from the FLUXNET database (La Thuile and 2015 releases, the MPI-MTE (model tree ensemble bottom–up product resulting from the global upscaling of site-level fluxes, and the Jena CarboScope Inversion, a top–down estimate of surface fluxes obtained from observed CO2 concentrations and an atmospheric transport model. Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of IAV were investigated between the three data sources. Results show that the global average of IAV at FLUXNET sites, quantified as the standard deviation of annual NEE, peaks in arid ecosystems and amounts to  ∼  120 gC m−2 y−1, almost 6 times more than the values calculated from the two global products (15 and 20 gC m−2 y−1 for MPI-MTE and the Jena Inversion, respectively. Most of the temporal variability observed in the last three decades of the MPI-MTE and Jena Inversion products is due to yearly anomalies, whereas the temporal trends explain only about 15 and 20 % of the variability, respectively. Both at the site level and on a global scale, the IAV of NEE is driven by the gross primary productivity and in particular by the cumulative carbon flux during the months when land acts as a sink. Altogether these results offer a broad view on the magnitude, spatial patterns and environmental drivers of IAV

Inter- and intra-annual variability of fluvial sediment transport in the proglacial river Riffler Bach (Weißseeferner, Ötztal Alps, Tyrol)

Science.gov (United States)

Baewert, Henning; Weber, Martin; Morche, David

2015-04-01

The hydrology of a proglacial river is strongly affected by glacier melting. Due to glacier retreat the effects of snow melt and rain storms will become more important in future decades. Additionally, the development of periglacial landscapes will play a more important role in the hydrology of proglacial rivers. The importance of paraglacial sediment sources in sediment budgets of glacier forefields is increasing, while the role of glacial erosion is declining. In two consecutive ablation seasons the fluvial sediment transport of the river Riffler Bach in the Kaunertal (Tyrol/Austria) was quantified. The catchment area of this station is 20 km² with an altitudinal range from 1929 m to 3518 m above msl. The "Weißseeferner" glacier (2.34 km² in 2012) is the greatest of the remaining glaciers. An automatic water sampler (AWS 2002) and a probe for water level were installed were installed at the outlet of the catchment. In order to calculate annual stage-discharge-relations, discharge (Q) was repeatedly measured with current meters. Concurrent to the discharge measurements bed load was collected using a portable Helley-Smith sampler. Bed load (BL) samples were weighted and sieved in the laboratory to gain annual bed load rating curves and grain size distributions. In 2012, 154 water samples were sampled during 7 periods and subsequently filtered to quantify suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). A Q-SSC-relation was calculated for every period due to the high variability in suspended sediment transport. In addition, the grain size distribution of the filtered material was determined by laser diffraction analysis. In 2013, the same procedure was performed for 232 water samples which were collected during 9 periods. Meteorological data were logged at the climate station "Weißsee", which is located in the centre of the study area. First results show a high variability of discharge and solid sediment transport both at the inter-annual as well as at the intra-annual

Inter-Annual Variability of Fledgling Sex Ratio in King Penguins.

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Célia Bordier

Full Text Available As the number of breeding pairs depends on the adult sex ratio in a monogamous species with biparental care, investigating sex-ratio variability in natural populations is essential to understand population dynamics. Using 10 years of data (2000-2009 in a seasonally monogamous seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus, we investigated the annual sex ratio at fledging, and the potential environmental causes for its variation. Over more than 4000 birds, the annual sex ratio at fledging was highly variable (ranging from 44.4% to 58.3% of males, and on average slightly biased towards males (51.6%. Yearly variation in sex-ratio bias was neither related to density within the colony, nor to global or local oceanographic conditions known to affect both the productivity and accessibility of penguin foraging areas. However, rising sea surface temperature coincided with an increase in fledging sex-ratio variability. Fledging sex ratio was also correlated with difference in body condition between male and female fledglings. When more males were produced in a given year, their body condition was higher (and reciprocally, suggesting that parents might adopt a sex-biased allocation strategy depending on yearly environmental conditions and/or that the effect of environmental parameters on chick condition and survival may be sex-dependent. The initial bias in sex ratio observed at the juvenile stage tended to return to 1∶1 equilibrium upon first breeding attempts, as would be expected from Fisher's classic theory of offspring sex-ratio variation.

Inter-Annual Variability of Fledgling Sex Ratio in King Penguins.

Science.gov (United States)

Bordier, Célia; Saraux, Claire; Viblanc, Vincent A; Gachot-Neveu, Hélène; Beaugey, Magali; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

2014-01-01

As the number of breeding pairs depends on the adult sex ratio in a monogamous species with biparental care, investigating sex-ratio variability in natural populations is essential to understand population dynamics. Using 10 years of data (2000-2009) in a seasonally monogamous seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), we investigated the annual sex ratio at fledging, and the potential environmental causes for its variation. Over more than 4000 birds, the annual sex ratio at fledging was highly variable (ranging from 44.4% to 58.3% of males), and on average slightly biased towards males (51.6%). Yearly variation in sex-ratio bias was neither related to density within the colony, nor to global or local oceanographic conditions known to affect both the productivity and accessibility of penguin foraging areas. However, rising sea surface temperature coincided with an increase in fledging sex-ratio variability. Fledging sex ratio was also correlated with difference in body condition between male and female fledglings. When more males were produced in a given year, their body condition was higher (and reciprocally), suggesting that parents might adopt a sex-biased allocation strategy depending on yearly environmental conditions and/or that the effect of environmental parameters on chick condition and survival may be sex-dependent. The initial bias in sex ratio observed at the juvenile stage tended to return to 1∶1 equilibrium upon first breeding attempts, as would be expected from Fisher's classic theory of offspring sex-ratio variation.

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

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Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

Inter- and intra-annual chemical variability during the ice-free season in lakes with different flushing rates and acid deposition histories.

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Arnott, Shelley E; Dillon, Peter J; Somers, Keith; Keller, Bill

2003-01-01

Quantifying chemical variability in different lake types is important for the assessment of both chemical and biological responses to environmental change. For monitoring programs that emphasize a large number of lakes at the expense of frequent samples, high variability may influence how representative single samples are of the average conditions of individual lakes. Intensive temporal data from long-term research sites provide a unique opportunity to assess chemical variability in lakes with different characteristics. We compared the intra- and inter-annual variability of four acidification related variables (Gran alkalinity, pH, sulphate concentration, and total base cation concentration) in four lakes with different flushing rates and acid deposition histories. Variability was highest in lakes with high flushing rates and was not influenced by historic acid deposition in our study lakes. This has implications for the amount of effort required in monitoring programs. Lakes with high flushing rates will require more frequent sampling intervals than lakes with low flushing rates. Consideration of specific lake types should be included in the design of monitoring programs.

Inter-annual variability in the thermal structure of an oceanic time series station off Ecuador (1990-2003) associated with El Niño events

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Garcés-Vargas, José; Schneider, Wolfgang; Abarca del Río, Rodrigo; Martínez, Rodney; Zambrano, Eduardo

2005-10-01

Previously unpublished data (1990-2003) from a marine station located 20 km off the coast of Ecuador (Station La Libertad, 02°12'S, 080°55'W) are employed to investigate oceanic inter-annual variability in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, and its relation to the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. La Libertad is the only time series station between the Galapagos Islands and the South American coast, the region most affected by El Niño events (El Niño 2 region, 0-5°S, 90°W-80°W). Although configured and serviced differently, station La Libertad can be looked at as an eastern extension of the TAO/TRITON monitoring system, whose easternmost mooring is located at 95°W, 1550 km offshore. This study of El Niño's impact on the thermocline and its relationship to sea surface temperature revealed anomalies in the thermocline at station La Libertad some 2-4 months before their appearance at the sea surface. Inter-annual variability, namely quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial oscillations, accounts for roughly 80% of the total variance in temperature anomalies observed in the water column at station La Libertad. The coincidence in both phase and amplitude of these inter-annual oscillations explains the strength of El Niño events in the water column off La Libertad. We further show that anomalies in heat content appear 8-9 weeks earlier at 140°W in the equatorial Pacific (6550 km away from the coast) than at the coast itself. The arrival of El Niño, which has important regional social consequences as well as those for local fisheries, could therefore be predicted in the sub-surface waters off Ecuador by using these anomalies as a complementary index. In addition, the speed of the eastward propagation of these El Niño-associated anomalies' suggests the possible participation of higher-order baroclinic mode Kelvin waves and associated interaction processes in the eastern Pacific, which should be further investigated.

Impact of Reconstruction Algorithms on CT Radiomic Features of Pulmonary Tumors: Analysis of Intra- and Inter-Reader Variability and Inter-Reconstruction Algorithm Variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyungjin; Park, Chang Min; Lee, Myunghee; Park, Sang Joon; Song, Yong Sub; Lee, Jong Hyuk; Hwang, Eui Jin; Goo, Jin Mo

2016-01-01

To identify the impact of reconstruction algorithms on CT radiomic features of pulmonary tumors and to reveal and compare the intra- and inter-reader and inter-reconstruction algorithm variability of each feature. Forty-two patients (M:F = 19:23; mean age, 60.43±10.56 years) with 42 pulmonary tumors (22.56±8.51mm) underwent contrast-enhanced CT scans, which were reconstructed with filtered back projection and commercial iterative reconstruction algorithm (level 3 and 5). Two readers independently segmented the whole tumor volume. Fifteen radiomic features were extracted and compared among reconstruction algorithms. Intra- and inter-reader variability and inter-reconstruction algorithm variability were calculated using coefficients of variation (CVs) and then compared. Among the 15 features, 5 first-order tumor intensity features and 4 gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM)-based features showed significant differences (palgorithms. As for the variability, effective diameter, sphericity, entropy, and GLCM entropy were the most robust features (CV≤5%). Inter-reader variability was larger than intra-reader or inter-reconstruction algorithm variability in 9 features. However, for entropy, homogeneity, and 4 GLCM-based features, inter-reconstruction algorithm variability was significantly greater than inter-reader variability (palgorithms. Inter-reconstruction algorithm variability was greater than inter-reader variability for entropy, homogeneity, and GLCM-based features.

Inter-Annual Variability in Blue Whale Distribution off Southern Sri Lanka between 2011 and 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asha de Vos

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus movements are often driven by the availability of their prey in space and time. While globally blue whale populations undertake long-range migrations between feeding and breeding grounds, those in the northern Indian Ocean remain in low latitude waters throughout the year with the implication that the productivity of these waters is sufficient to support their energy needs. A part of this population remains around Sri Lanka where they are usually recorded close to the southern coast during the Northeast Monsoon. To investigate inter-annual variability in sighting locations, we conducted systematic Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD and visual surveys between January–March 2011 and January–March 2012. In 2011, there was a notable decrease in inshore sightings compared to 2009 and 2012 (p < 0.001. CTD data revealed that in 2011 there was increased freshwater in the upper water column accompanied by deeper upwelling than in 2012. We hypothesise that anomalous rainfall, along with higher turbidity resulting from river discharge, affected the productivity of the inshore waters and caused a shift in blue whale prey and, consequently, the distribution of the whales themselves. An understanding of how predators and their prey respond to environmental variability is important for predicting how these species will respond to long-term changes. This is especially important given the rapid temperature increases predicted for the semi-enclosed northern Indian Ocean.

CMIP5 land surface models systematically underestimate inter-annual variability of net ecosystem exchange in semi-arid southwestern North America.

Science.gov (United States)

MacBean, N.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Vuichard, N.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M.; Fox, A. M.; Smith, W. K.; Peylin, P. P.; Maignan, F.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies based on analysis of atmospheric CO2 inversions, satellite data and terrestrial biosphere model simulations have suggested that semi-arid ecosystems play a dominant role in the interannual variability and long-term trend in the global carbon sink. These studies have largely cited the response of vegetation activity to changing moisture availability as the primary mechanism of variability. However, some land surface models (LSMs) used in these studies have performed poorly in comparison to satellite-based observations of vegetation dynamics in semi-arid regions. Further analysis is therefore needed to ensure semi-arid carbon cycle processes are well represented in global scale LSMs before we can fully establish their contribution to the global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) simulated by CMIP5 land surface models using observations from 20 Ameriflux sites across semi-arid southwestern North America. We found that CMIP5 models systematically underestimate the magnitude and sign of NEE inter-annual variability; therefore, the true role of semi-arid regions in the global carbon cycle may be even more important than previously thought. To diagnose the factors responsible for this bias, we used the ORCHIDEE LSM to test different climate forcing data, prescribed vegetation fractions and model structures. Climate and prescribed vegetation do contribute to uncertainty in annual NEE simulations, but the bias is primarily caused by incorrect timing and magnitude of peak gross carbon fluxes. Modifications to the hydrology scheme improved simulations of soil moisture in comparison to data. This in turn improved the seasonal cycle of carbon uptake due to a more realistic limitation on photosynthesis during water stress. However, the peak fluxes are still too low, and phenology is poorly represented for desert shrubs and grasses. We provide suggestions on model developments needed to tackle these issues in the future.

Black sea annual and inter-annual water mass variations from space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yildiz, H.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Simav, M.

2011-01-01

influenced by the leakage of hydrological signals from the surrounding land. After applying the corresponding correction, we found a good agreement with water mass variations derived from steric-corrected satellite altimetry observations. Both GRACE and altimetry show significant annual water mass variations......This study evaluates the performance of two widely used GRACE solutions (CNES/GRGS RL02 and CSR RL04) in deriving annual and inter-annual water mass variations in the Black Sea for the period 2003–2007. It is demonstrated that the GRACE derived water mass variations in the Black Sea are heavily...

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

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Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

INTER-EXAMINER VARIABILITY

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objective: To establish whether inter-examiner variability is still a significant factor for the undergraduate orthopaedic clinical ... D. The scores for each student were tabulated and the range, mean, and pass rate determined for each of the examiners. ... has not the heart to reject the man”, consistently gave higher scores (1).

Kelvin wave coupling from TIMED and GOCE: Inter/intra-annual variability and solar activity effects

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Gasperini, Federico; Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Doornbos, Eelco N.; Bruinsma, Sean L.

2018-06-01

The primary mechanism through which energy and momentum are transferred from the lower atmosphere to the thermosphere is through the generation and propagation of atmospheric waves. It is becoming increasingly evident that a few waves from the tropical wave spectrum preferentially propagate into the thermosphere and contribute to modify satellite drag. Two of the more prominent and well-established tropical waves are Kelvin waves: the eastward-propagating 3-day ultra-fast Kelvin wave (UFKW) and the eastward-propagating diurnal tide with zonal wave number 3 (DE3). In this work, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperatures at 110 km and Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) neutral densities and cross-track winds near 260 km are used to demonstrate vertical coupling in this height regime due to the UFKW and DE3. Significant inter- and intra-annual variability is found in DE3 and the UFKW, with evidence of latitudinal broadening and filtering of the latitude structures with height due to the effect of dissipation and mean winds. Additionally, anti-correlation between the vertical penetration of these waves to the middle thermosphere and solar activity level is established and explained through the effect of molecular dissipation.

Seasonal and inter-annual sea surface height variations of the northern Indian Ocean from the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

PrasannaKumar, S.; Snaith, H.; Challenor, P.; Guymer, H.T.

along the east and west coast of India, and offshore movement of the high (low) SSH patch during winter (summer) away from the tip of India indicates the role of remote forcings along the boundary and into the interior oceans. Inter-annual variability...

A neural network-based estimate of the seasonal to inter-annual variability of the Atlantic Ocean carbon sink

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Landschützer, P.; Gruber, N.; Bakker, D.C.E.

2013-01-01

The Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but this sink is known to vary substantially in time. Here we use surface ocean CO2 observations to estimate this sink and the temporal variability from 1998 to 2007 in the Atlantic Ocean. We benefit from ......, leading to a substantial trend toward a stronger CO2 sink for the entire South Atlantic (–0.14 Pg C yr–1 decade–1). The Atlantic carbon sink varies relatively little on inter-annual time-scales (±0.04 Pg C yr–1; 1σ)......The Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), but this sink is known to vary substantially in time. Here we use surface ocean CO2 observations to estimate this sink and the temporal variability from 1998 to 2007 in the Atlantic Ocean. We benefit from (i...... poleward of 40° N, but many other parts of the North Atlantic increased more slowly, resulting in a barely changing Atlantic carbon sink north of the equator (–0.007 Pg C yr–1 decade–1). Surface ocean pCO2 was also increasing less than that of the atmosphere over most of the Atlantic south of the equator...

Inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between local sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

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Zhao, Haikun; Wu, Liguang; Raga, G. B.

2018-02-01

This study documents the inter-decadal change of the lagged inter-annual relationship between the TC frequency (TCF) and the local sea surface temperature (SST) in the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1979-2014. An abrupt shift of the lagged relationship between them is observed to occur in 1998. Before the shift (1979-1997), a moderately positive correlation (0.35) between previous-year local SST and TCF is found, while a significantly negative correlation (- 0.71) is found since the shift (1998-2014). The inter-decadal change of the lagged relationship between TCF and local SST over the WNP is also accompanied by an inter-decadal change in the lagged inter-annual relationship between large-scale factors affecting TCs and local SST over the WNP. During 1998-2014, the previous-year local SST shows a significant negative correlation with the mid-level moisture and a significant positive correlation with the vertical wind shear over the main development region of WNP TC genesis. Almost opposite relationships are seen during 1979-1997, with a smaller magnitude of the correlation coefficients. These changes are consistent with the changes of the lagged inter-annual relationship between upper- and lower-level winds and local SST over the WNP. Analyses further suggests that the inter-decadal shift of the lagged inter-annual relationship between WNP TCF and local SST may be closely linked to the inter-decadal change of inter-annual SST transition over the tropical central-eastern Pacific associated with the climate regime shift in the late 1990s. Details on the underlying physical process need further investigation using observations and simulations.

Combined role of heat and water stresses on wheat, maize and rice inter-annual variability and trend from 1980 to 2010.

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Zampieri, M.; Ceglar, A., , Dr; Dentener, F., , Dr; van den Berg, M., , Dr; Toreti, A., , Dr

2017-12-01

Heat waves and drought are often considered the most damaging climatic stressors for wheat and maize. In this study, based on data derived from observations, we characterize and attribute the effects of these climate extremes on wheat and maize yield anomalies (at global and national scales) with respect to the mean trend from 1980 to 2010. Using a combination of up-to-date heat wave and drought indexes (i.e. the Heat Magnitude Day, HMD, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), we have developed a composite indicator (i.e. the Combined Stress Index, CSI) that is able to capture the spatio-temporal characteristics of the underlying physical processes in the different agro-climatic regions of the world. At the global level, our diagnostic explains the 42% and the 50% of the inter-annual wheat and maize production variabilities, respectively. The relative importance of heat stress and drought in determining the yield anomalies depends on the region. Compared to maize, and in contrast to common perception, water excess affects wheat production more than drought in several countries. The index definition can be modified in order to quantify the role of combined heat and water stress events occurrence in determining the recorded yield trends as well. Climate change is increasingly limiting maize yields in several countries, especially in Europe and China. A comparable opposite signal, albeit less statistically significant, is found for the USA, which is the main world producer. As for rice, we provide a statistical evidence pointing out to the importance of considering the interactions with the horizontal surface waters fluxes carried out by the rivers. In fact, compared to wheat and maize, the CSI statistical skills in explaining rice production variability are quite reduced. This issue is particularly relevant in paddy fields and flooded lowlands where rice is mainly grown. Therefore, we have modified the procedure including a proxy for the

The Inter-Annual Variability Analysis of Carbon Exchange in Low Artic Fen Uncovers The Climate Sensitivity And The Uncertainties Around Net Ecosystem Exchange Partitioning

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Blanco, E. L.; Lund, M.; Williams, M. D.; Christensen, T. R.; Tamstorf, M. P.

2015-12-01

An improvement in our process-based understanding of CO2 exchanges in the Arctic, and their climate sensitivity, is critical for examining the role of tundra ecosystems in changing climates. Arctic organic carbon storage has seen increased attention in recent years due to large potential for carbon releases following thaw. Our knowledge about the exact scale and sensitivity for a phase-change of these C stocks are, however, limited. Minor variations in Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) driven by changes in the climate can lead to either C sink or C source states, which likely will impact the overall C cycle of the ecosystem. Eddy covariance data is usually used to partition Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) into GPP and Reco achieved by flux separation algorithms. However, different partitioning approaches lead to different estimates. as well as undefined uncertainties. The main objectives of this study are to use model-data fusion approaches to (1) determine the inter-annual variability in C source/sink strength for an Arctic fen, and attribute such variations to GPP vs Reco, (2) investigate the climate sensitivity of these processes and (3) explore the uncertainties in NEE partitioning. The intention is to elaborate on the information gathered in an existing catchment area under an extensive cross-disciplinary ecological monitoring program in low Arctic West Greenland, established under the auspices of the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program. The use of such a thorough long-term (7 years) dataset applied to the exploration in inter-annual variability of carbon exchange, related driving factors and NEE partition uncertainties provides a novel input into our understanding about land-atmosphere CO2 exchange.

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature at the east coast fishing area off Peninsular Malaysia

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Nurul Ridani, S.; Mustapha, M. A.; Lihan, T.; Ku Kassim, K. Y.; Raja Bidin, R. H.

2015-09-01

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to study a time-series of the aqua MODIS data imageries in the exclusive economic zone of east coast off Peninsular Malaysia. Temporal and spatial characteristics were examined to determine the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) variability from January 2003 to December 2011.The data were analysed from daily Level 1A (1km spatial resolution) to monthly composites Level 3 data using SeaDAS and ERDAS imagine software. Four modes was obtained from the analysis with the highest variance (7.9%) represented by mode 1 which explained the seasonal cycle. Mode 2 (5.11 % of total variance) showed positive and negative peak signal during March and April and in October and November with variability near the Kelantan and Pahang waters that indicated the inter monsoon. Mode 3 (3.8 % of variance) shows variability near the Terengganu, Kelantan and Johor waters to the open sea during July and August and in May and June representing the Southwest monsoon. Mode 4 (3.36 %) showed positive signal during November and December with strong signal near Pahang and Kelantan waters while weak signal was detected near Terengganu and Kelantan's open sea representing the Northeast monsoon. The SST variability was influenced by the monsoonal system which originated by the wind forcing condition that influences circulation in the study area.

Inter-observer and inter-examination variability of manual vertebral bone attenuation measurements on computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pompe, Esther; Lammers, Jan-Willem J.; Jong, Pim A. de; Jong, Werner U. de; Takx, Richard A.P.; Eikendal, Anouk L.M.; Willemink, Martin J.; Mohamed Hoesein, Firdaus A.A.; Oudkerk, Matthijs; Budde, Ricardo P.J.

2016-01-01

To determine inter-observer and inter-examination variability of manual attenuation measurements of the vertebrae in low-dose unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT). Three hundred and sixty-seven lung cancer screening trial participants who underwent baseline and repeat unenhanced low-dose CT after 3 months because of an indeterminate lung nodule were included. The CT attenuation value of the first lumbar vertebrae (L1) was measured in all CTs by one observer to obtain inter-examination reliability. Six observers performed measurements in 100 randomly selected CTs to determine agreement with limits of agreement and Bland-Altman plots and reliability with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Reclassification analyses were performed using a threshold of 110 HU to define osteoporosis. Inter-examination reliability was excellent with an ICC of 0.92 (p < 0.001). Inter-examination limits of agreement ranged from -26 to 28 HU with a mean difference of 1 ± 14 HU. Inter-observer reliability ICCs ranged from 0.70 to 0.91. Inter-examination variability led to 11.2 % reclassification of participants and inter-observer variability led to 22.1 % reclassification. Vertebral attenuation values can be manually quantified with good to excellent inter-examination and inter-observer reliability on unenhanced low-dose chest CT. This information is valuable for early detection of osteoporosis on low-dose chest CT. (orig.)

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

Global inter-annual gravity changes from GRACE: Early results

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Hinderer, J.

2005-01-01

with an accuracy of 0.4 muGal corresponding to 9 mm water thickness on spatial scales longer than 1300 km. Four of the most widely used global hydrological models have been investigated for their spatial comparison with GRACE observations of inter-annual gravity field variations due to changes in continental water...... storage. The Global Land Data Assimilation System model has a spatial correlation coefficient with GRACE observations of 0.65 over the northern hemisphere. This demonstrates that the observed gravity field changes on these scales are largely related to changes in continental water storage.......Fifteen monthly gravity field solutions from the GRACE twin satellites launched more than two years ago have been studied to estimate gravity field changes between 2002 and 2003. The results demonstrate that GRACE is capable of capturing the changes in ground water on inter-annual scales...

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface circulation in the Bay of Bengal from TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Somayajulu, Y.K.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sarma, Y.V.B.

- west monsoon period, (Fig. 5c) reflected the Fig.3. Variation of (a) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and (b) SST anomaly(Del. SST) in the Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP, NINO4, 51N–51S; 1601E–1501W) during the 5-year period (January1993–December 1997.... Inter-annual variation of SSH anomalyat selected locations: (a) off Sumatra (EEIO), (b) southern bay(SB), (c) eastern bay (EB), (d) northern bay(NB), (e) western bay(WB), and (f) central bay(CB). SST anomaly(Del. SST) is shown bydashed line in (a). Y...

Inter-annual trends of heavy metals in marine resources from the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

USER

In an attempt to monitor and assess the pollution status of marine resources in the Nigerian territorial waters, this study was carried out to reveal the levels and inter-annual trend of heavy metals in marine resources from the Lagos lagoon marine ecosystem. Studies were carried out annually in the month of. July between ...

Analysis on inter-annual variability of CO2 exchange in Arctic tundra: a model-data approach

Science.gov (United States)

López Blanco, E.; Lund, M.; Christensen, T. R.; Smallman, T. L.; Slevin, D.; Westergaard-Nielsen, A.; Tamstorf, M. P.; Williams, M.

2017-12-01

Arctic ecosystems are exposed to rapid changes triggered by the climate variability, thus there is a growing concern about how the carbon (C) exchange balance will respond to climate change. There is a lack of knowledge about the mechanisms that drive the interactions between photosynthesis and ecological respiration with changes in C stocks in the Arctic tundra across full annual cycles. The reduction of uncertainties can be addressed through process-based modelling efforts. Here, we report the independent predictions of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) calculated from the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) model across eight years. The model products are validated with observational data obtained from the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring (GEM) program in West Greenland tundra (64° N). Overall, the model results explain 71%, 73% and 51% of the variance in NEE, GPP and Reco respectively using data on meteorology and local vegetation and soil structure. The estimated leaf area index (LAI) is able to explain 80% of the plant greenness variation, which was used as a plant phenology proxy. The full annual cumulated NEE during the 2008-2015 period was -0.13 g C m-2 on average (range -30.6 to 34.1 g C m-2), while GPP was -214.6 g C m-2 (-126.2 to -332.8 g C m-2) and Reco was 214.4 g C m-2 (213.9 to 302.2 g C m-2). We found that the model supports the main finding from our previous analysis on flux responses to meteorological variations and biological disturbance. Here, large inter-annual variations in GPP and Reco are also compensatory, and so NEE remains stable across climatically diverse snow-free seasons. Further, we note evidence that leaf maintenance and root growth respiration are highly correlated with GPP (R2 = 0.92 and 0.83, p < 0.001), concluding that these relations likely drive the insensitivity of NEE. Interestingly, the model quantifies the contribution of the larvae outbreak occurred in 2011 in about 27

Intra-annual variability in nutrients in the Godavari estuary, India

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Sarma, V.V.S.S.; Prasad, V.R.; Kumar, B.S.K.; Rajeev, K.; Devi, B.M.M.; Reddy, N.P.C.; Sarma, V.V.; DileepKumar, M.

, and spectrofluorometrically measured (Suzuki and Ishimaru, 1990). The analytical precision for Chl a analysis was ±4%. All these analyses were completed within 12 hours of sampling at the shore-based laboratory set up at Yanam, on the bank of the river. Net community... s -1 ). There was virtually no discharge between January and May due to drying of the river in the upstream (Fig. 2b). The inter-annual variability in the October – November discharge was due to changes in the precipitation pattern in the upstream...

Seasonal and inter-annual photosynthetic response of representative C4 species to soil water content and leaf nitrogen concentration across a tropical seasonal floodplain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mantlana, K.B.; Arneth, A.; Veenendaal, E.M.; Wohland, P.; Wolski, P.; Kolle, O.; Lloyd, J.

2008-01-01

We examined the seasonal and inter-annual variation of leaf-level photosynthetic characteristics of three C4 perennial species, Cyperus articulatus, Panicum repens and Imperata cylindrica, and their response to environmental variables, to determine comparative physiological responses of plants

Studying Basin Water Balance Variations at Inter- and Intra-annual Time Scales Based On the Budyko Hypothesis and GRACE Gravimetry Satellite Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, H.

2017-12-01

Increasing intensity in global warming and anthropogenic activities has triggered significant changes over regional climates and landscapes, which, in turn, drive the basin water cycle and hydrological balance into a complex and unstable state. Budyko hypothesis is a powerful tool to characterize basin water balance and hydrological variations at long-term average scale. However, due to the absence of basin water storage change, applications of Budyko theory to the inter-annual and intra-annual time scales has been prohibited. The launch of GRACE gavimetry satellites provides a great opportunity to quantify terrestrial water storage change, which can be further introduced into the Budyko hypothesis to reveal the inter- and intra-annual response of basin water components under impacts of climate variability and/or human activities. This research targeted Hai River Basin (in China) and Murray-Darling Basin (in Australia), which have been identified with a continuous groundwater depletion trend as well as impacts by extreme climates in the past decade. This can help us to explore how annual or seasonal precipitation were redistributed to evapotranspiration and runoff via changing basin water storage. Moreover, the impacts of vegetation on annual basin water balance will be re-examined. Our results are expected to provide deep insights about the water cycle and hydrological behaviors for the targeted basins, as well as a proof for a consideration of basin water storage change into the Budyko model at inter- or intra-annual time steps.

Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

2012-09-01

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

Seasonal and inter-annual variability in velocity and frontal position of Siachen Glacier (Eastern Karakorum) using multi-satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Usman, M.; Furuya, M.; Sakakibara, D.; Abe, T.

2017-12-01

The anomalous behavior of Karakorum glaciers is a hot topic of discussion in the scientific community. Siachen Glacier is one of the longest glaciers ( 75km) in Karakorum Range. This glacier is supposed to be a surge type but so far no studies have confirmed this claim. Detailed velocity mapping of this glacier can possibly provide some clues about intra/inter-annual changes in velocity and observed terminus. Using L-band SAR data of ALOS-1/2, we applied the feature tracking technique (search patch of 128x128 pixels (range x azimuth) , sampling interval of 12x36 pixels) to derive velocity changes; we used GAMMA software. The velocity was calculated by following the parallel flow assumption. To calculate the local topographic gradient unit vector, we used ASTER-GDEM. We also used optical images acquired by Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) to derive surface velocity. The algorithm we used is Cross-Correlation in Frequency domain on Orientation images (CCF-O). The velocity was finally calculated by setting a flow line and averaging over the area of 200x200m2. The results indicate seasonal speed up signals that modulate inter-annually from 1999 to 2011, with slight or no change in the observed frontal position. However, in ALOS-2 data, the `observed terminus' seems to have been advancing.

RESPONSE OF RIPARIAN VEGETATION IN AUSTRALIA"S LARGEST RIVER BASIN TO INTER AND INTRA-ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND FLOODING AS QUANTIFIED WITH LANDSAT AND MODIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Broich

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Australia is a continent subject to high rainfall variability, which has major influences on runoff and vegetation dynamics. However, the resulting spatial-temporal pattern of flooding and its influence on riparian vegetation has not been quantified in a spatially explicit way. Here we focused on the floodplains of the entire Murray-Darling Basin (MDB, an area that covers over 1M km2, as a case study. The MDB is the country’s primary agricultural area with scarce water resources subject to competing demands and impacted by climate change and more recently by the Millennium Drought (1999–2009. Riparian vegetation in the MDB floodplain suffered extensive decline providing a dramatic degradation of riparian vegetation. We quantified the spatial-temporal impact of rainfall, temperature and flooding patters on vegetation dynamics at the subcontinental to local scales and across inter to intra-annual time scales based on three decades of Landsat (25k images, Bureau of Meteorology data and one decade of MODIS data. Vegetation response varied in space and time and with vegetation types, densities and location relative to areas frequently flooded. Vegetation degradation trends were observed over riparian forests and woodlands in areas where flooding regimes have changed to less frequent and smaller inundation extents. Conversely, herbaceous vegetation phenology followed primarily a ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ cycle, related to inter-annual rainfall variability. Spatial patters of vegetation degradation changed along the N-S rainfall gradient but flooding regimes and vegetation degradation patterns also varied at finer scale, highlighting the importance of a spatially explicit, internally consistent analysis and setting the stage for investigating further cross-scale relationships. Results are of interest for land and water management decisions. The approach developed here can be applied to other areas globally such as the Nile river basin and

The role of ecosystem memory in predicting inter-annual variations of the tropical carbon balance.

Science.gov (United States)

Bloom, A. A.; Liu, J.; Bowman, K. W.; Konings, A. G.; Saatchi, S.; Worden, J. R.; Worden, H. M.; Jiang, Z.; Parazoo, N.; Williams, M. D.; Schimel, D.

2017-12-01

Understanding the trajectory of the tropical carbon balance remains challenging, in part due to large uncertainties in the integrated response of carbon cycle processes to climate variability. Satellite observations atmospheric CO2 from GOSAT and OCO-2, together with ancillary satellite measurements, provide crucial constraints on continental-scale terrestrial carbon fluxes. However, an integrated understanding of both climate forcings and legacy effects (or "ecosystem memory") on the terrestrial carbon balance is ultimately needed to reduce uncertainty on its future trajectory. Here we use the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) diagnostic model-data fusion approach - constrained by an array of C cycle satellite surface observations, including MODIS leaf area, biomass, GOSAT solar-induced fluorescence, as well as "top-down" atmospheric inversion estimates of CO2 and CO surface fluxes from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) - to constrain and predict spatially-explicit tropical carbon state variables during 2010-2015. We find that the combined assimilation of land surface and atmospheric datasets places key constraints on the temperature sensitivity and first order carbon-water feedbacks throughout the tropics and combustion factors within biomass burning regions. By varying the duration of the assimilation period, we find that the prediction skill on inter-annual net biospheric exchange is primarily limited by record length rather than model structure and process representation. We show that across all tropical biomes, quantitative knowledge of memory effects - which account for 30-50% of interannual variations across the tropics - is critical for understanding and ultimately predicting the inter-annual tropical carbon balance.

Cardiac valve calcifications on low-dose unenhanced ungated chest computed tomography: inter-observer and inter-examination reliability, agreement and variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamersvelt, Robbert W. van; Willemink, Martin J.; Takx, Richard A.P.; Eikendal, Anouk L.M.; Budde, Ricardo P.J.; Leiner, Tim; Jong, Pim A. de; Mol, Christian P.; Isgum, Ivana

2014-01-01

To determine inter-observer and inter-examination variability for aortic valve calcification (AVC) and mitral valve and annulus calcification (MC) in low-dose unenhanced ungated lung cancer screening chest computed tomography (CT). We included 578 lung cancer screening trial participants who were examined by CT twice within 3 months to follow indeterminate pulmonary nodules. On these CTs, AVC and MC were measured in cubic millimetres. One hundred CTs were examined by five observers to determine the inter-observer variability. Reliability was assessed by kappa statistics (κ) and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). Variability was expressed as the mean difference ± standard deviation (SD). Inter-examination reliability was excellent for AVC (κ = 0.94, ICC = 0.96) and MC (κ = 0.95, ICC = 0.90). Inter-examination variability was 12.7 ± 118.2 mm 3 for AVC and 31.5 ± 219.2 mm 3 for MC. Inter-observer reliability ranged from κ = 0.68 to κ = 0.92 for AVC and from κ = 0.20 to κ = 0.66 for MC. Inter-observer ICC was 0.94 for AVC and ranged from 0.56 to 0.97 for MC. Inter-observer variability ranged from -30.5 ± 252.0 mm 3 to 84.0 ± 240.5 mm 3 for AVC and from -95.2 ± 210.0 mm 3 to 303.7 ± 501.6 mm 3 for MC. AVC can be quantified with excellent reliability on ungated unenhanced low-dose chest CT, but manual detection of MC can be subject to substantial inter-observer variability. Lung cancer screening CT may be used for detection and quantification of cardiac valve calcifications. (orig.)

The effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on crop-related green and blue water footprints and inter-regional virtual water trade: A study for China (1978-2008).

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2016-05-01

Previous studies into the relation between human consumption and indirect water resources use have unveiled the remote connections in virtual water (VW) trade networks, which show how communities externalize their water footprint (WF) to places far beyond their own region, but little has been done to understand variability in time. This study quantifies the effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on WF and VW trade, using China over the period 1978-2008 as a case study. Evapotranspiration, crop yields and green and blue WFs of crops are estimated at a 5 × 5 arc-minute resolution for 22 crops, for each year in the study period, thus accounting for climate variability. The results show that crop yield improvements during the study period helped to reduce the national average WF of crop consumption per capita by 23%, with a decreasing contribution to the total from cereals and increasing contribution from oil crops. The total consumptive WFs of national crop consumption and crop production, however, grew by 6% and 7%, respectively. By 2008, 28% of total water consumption in crop fields in China served the production of crops for export to other regions and, on average, 35% of the crop-related WF of a Chinese consumer was outside its own province. Historically, the net VW within China was from the water-rich South to the water-scarce North, but intensifying North-to-South crop trade reversed the net VW flow since 2000, which amounted 6% of North's WF of crop production in 2008. South China thus gradually became dependent on food supply from the water-scarce North. Besides, during the whole study period, China's domestic inter-regional VW flows went dominantly from areas with a relatively large to areas with a relatively small blue WF per unit of crop, which in 2008 resulted in a trade-related blue water loss of 7% of the national total blue WF of crop production. The case of China shows that domestic trade, as governed by

Cardiac valve calcifications on low-dose unenhanced ungated chest computed tomography: inter-observer and inter-examination reliability, agreement and variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamersvelt, Robbert W. van; Willemink, Martin J.; Takx, Richard A.P.; Eikendal, Anouk L.M.; Budde, Ricardo P.J.; Leiner, Tim; Jong, Pim A. de [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Mol, Christian P.; Isgum, Ivana [University Medical Center Utrecht, Image Sciences Institute, Utrecht (Netherlands)

2014-07-15

To determine inter-observer and inter-examination variability for aortic valve calcification (AVC) and mitral valve and annulus calcification (MC) in low-dose unenhanced ungated lung cancer screening chest computed tomography (CT). We included 578 lung cancer screening trial participants who were examined by CT twice within 3 months to follow indeterminate pulmonary nodules. On these CTs, AVC and MC were measured in cubic millimetres. One hundred CTs were examined by five observers to determine the inter-observer variability. Reliability was assessed by kappa statistics (κ) and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). Variability was expressed as the mean difference ± standard deviation (SD). Inter-examination reliability was excellent for AVC (κ = 0.94, ICC = 0.96) and MC (κ = 0.95, ICC = 0.90). Inter-examination variability was 12.7 ± 118.2 mm{sup 3} for AVC and 31.5 ± 219.2 mm{sup 3} for MC. Inter-observer reliability ranged from κ = 0.68 to κ = 0.92 for AVC and from κ = 0.20 to κ = 0.66 for MC. Inter-observer ICC was 0.94 for AVC and ranged from 0.56 to 0.97 for MC. Inter-observer variability ranged from -30.5 ± 252.0 mm{sup 3} to 84.0 ± 240.5 mm{sup 3} for AVC and from -95.2 ± 210.0 mm{sup 3} to 303.7 ± 501.6 mm{sup 3} for MC. AVC can be quantified with excellent reliability on ungated unenhanced low-dose chest CT, but manual detection of MC can be subject to substantial inter-observer variability. Lung cancer screening CT may be used for detection and quantification of cardiac valve calcifications. (orig.)

Inter-annual changes of Biomass Burning and Desert Dust and their impact over East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

DONG, X.; Fu, J. S.; Huang, K.

2014-12-01

Impact of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols on air quality has been well documented in the last few decades, but the knowledge about their interactions with anthropogenic emission and their impacts on regional climate is very limited (IPCC, 2007). While East Asia is greatly affected by dust storms in spring from Taklamakan and Gobi deserts (Huang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2012), it also suffers from significant biomass burning emission from Southeast Asia during the same season. Observations from both surface monitoring and satellite data indicated that mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols may approach to coastal area of East Asia simultaneously, thus have a very unique impact on the local atmospheric environment and regional climate. In this study, we first investigated the inter-annual variations of biomass burning and dust aerosols emission for 5 consecutive years from 2006-2010 to estimate the upper and lower limits and correlation with meteorology conditions, and then evaluate their impacts with a chemical transport system. Our preliminary results indicated that biomass burning has a strong correlation with precipitation over Southeast Asia, which could drive the emission varying from 542 Tg in 2008 to 945 Tg in 2010, according to FLAMBE emission inventory (Reid et al., 2009). Mineral dust also demonstrated a strong dependence on wind filed. These inter-annual/annual variations will also lead to different findings and impacts on air quality in East Asia. Reference: Huang, K., et al. (2010), Mixing of Asian dust with pollution aerosol and the transformation of aerosol components during the dust storm over China in spring 2007, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York. Li, J., et al. (2012), Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia: a model case study of a super-duststorm in

Seasonal and inter-annual variation of mesozooplankton in the coastal upwelling zone off central-southern Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Escribano, Ruben; Hidalgo, Pamela; González, Humberto; Giesecke, Ricardo; Riquelme-Bugueño, Ramiro; Manríquez, Karen

2007-11-01

Zooplankton sampling at Station 18 off Concepción (36°30‧S and 73°07‧W), on an average frequency of 30 days (August 2002 to December 2005), allowed the assessment of seasonal and inter-annual variation in zooplankton biomass, its C and N content, and the community structure in relation to upwelling variability. Copepods contributed 79% of the total zooplankton community and were mostly represented by Paracalanus parvus, Oithona similis, Oithona nana, Calanus chilensis, and Rhincalanus nasutus. Other copepod species, euphausiids (mainly Euphausia mucronata), gelatinous zooplankton, and crustacean larvae comprised the rest of the community. Changes in the depth of the upper boundary of the oxygen minimum zone indicated the strongly seasonal upwelling pattern. The bulk of zooplankton biomass and total copepod abundance were both strongly and positively associated with a shallow (oxygen minimum zone; these values increased in spring/summer, when upwelling prevailed. Gelatinous zooplankton showed positive abundance anomalies in the spring and winter, whereas euphausiids had no seasonal pattern and a positive anomaly in the fall. The C content and the C/N ratio of zooplankton biomass significantly increased during the spring when chlorophyll- a was high (>5 mg m -3). No major changes in zooplankton biomass and species were found from one year to the next. We concluded that upwelling is the key process modulating variability in zooplankton biomass and its community structure in this zone. The spring/summer increase in zooplankton may be largely the result of the aggregation of dominant copepods within the upwelling region; these may reproduce throughout the year, increasing their C content and C/N ratios given high diatom concentrations.

Inter-annual variability of exchange processes at the outer Black Sea shelf

Science.gov (United States)

Shapiro, Georgy; Wobus, Fred; Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Zheng

2014-05-01

�zsoy, 1997. The Black Sea Cold Intermediate Layer, in: Özsoy, E. and A. Mikaelyan (editors), Sensitivity to Change: Black Sea, Baltic Sea and North Sea, NATO ASI Series (Partnership Sub-series, Environment, 27), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 536 pp. Shapiro, G.I., F. Wobus, D.L. Aleynik, 2011. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf, Ocean Science 7, 585-596. Shapiro, G., Luneva, M., Pickering, J., and Storkey, D., 2013. The effect of various vertical discretization schemes and horizontal diffusion parameterization on the performance of a 3-D ocean model: the Black Sea case study, Ocean Science, 9, 377-390. Staneva, J. V. and E. V. Stanev, 1997. Cold water mass formation in the Black Sea. Analysis on numerical model simulations. In: E. Ozsoy and A. Mikaelyan (eds.), Sensitivity to change: Black Sea, Baltic Sea and North Sea. NATO ASI Series, Vol. 27, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 375-393.

Inter-annual variability of NDVI in response to long-term warming and fertilization in wet sedge and tussock tundra.

Science.gov (United States)

Boelman, Natalie T; Stieglitz, Marc; Griffin, Kevin L; Shaver, Gaius R

2005-05-01

This study explores the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aboveground plant biomass for tussock tundra vegetation and compares it to a previously established NDVI-biomass relationship for wet sedge tundra vegetation. In addition, we explore inter-annual variation in NDVI in both these contrasting vegetation communities. All measurements were taken across long-term experimental treatments in wet sedge and tussock tundra communities at the Toolik Lake Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, in northern Alaska. Over 15 years (for wet sedge tundra) and 14 years (for tussock tundra), N and P were applied in factorial experiments (N, P and N+P), air temperature was increased using greenhouses with and without N+P fertilizer, and light intensity was reduced by 50% using shade cloth. during the peak growing seasons of 2001, 2002, and 2003, NDVI measurements were made in both the wet sedge and tussock tundra experimental treatment plots, creating a 3-year time series of inter-annual variation in NDVI. We found that: (1) across all tussock experimental tundra treatments, NDVI is correlated with aboveground plant biomass (r2 = 0.59); (2) NDVI-biomass relationships for tussock and wet sedge tundra communities are community specific, and; (3) NDVI values for tussock tundra communities are typically, but not always, greater than for wet sedge tundra communities across all experimental treatments. We suggest that differences between the response of wet sedge and tussock tundra communities in the same experimental treatments result from the contrasting degree of heterogeneity in species and functional types that characterize each of these Arctic tundra vegetation communities.

Inter-annual Variations in Snow/Firn Density over the Greenland Ice Sheet by Combining GRACE gravimetry and Envisat Altimetry

Science.gov (United States)

Su, X.; Shum, C. K.; Guo, J.; Howat, I.; Jezek, K. C.; Luo, Z.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Satellite altimetry has been used to monitor elevation and volume change of polar ice sheets since the 1990s. In order to derive mass change from the measured volume change, different density assumptions are commonly used in the research community, which may cause discrepancies on accurately estimating ice sheets mass balance. In this study, we investigate the inter-annual anomalies of mass change from GRACE gravimetry and elevation change from Envisat altimetry during years 2003-2009, with the objective of determining inter-annual variations of snow/firn density over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). High positive correlations (0.6 or higher) between these two inter-annual anomalies at are found over 93% of the GrIS, which suggests that both techniques detect the same geophysical process at the inter-annual timescale. Interpreting the two anomalies in terms of near surface density variations, over 80% of the GrIS, the inter-annual variation in average density is between the densities of snow and pure ice. In particular, at the Summit of Central Greenland, we validate the satellite data estimated density with the in situ data available from 75 snow pits and 9 ice cores. This study provides constraints on the currently applied density assumptions for the GrIS.

Modeling the impacts of phenological and inter-annual changes in landscape metrics on local biodiversity of agricultural lands of Eastern Ontario using multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data

Science.gov (United States)

Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; King, D.

2017-12-01

Agricultural landscapes are highly variable ecosystems and are home to many local farmland species. Seasonal, phenological and inter-annual agricultural landscape dynamics have potential to affect the richness and abundance of farmland species. Remote sensing provides data and techniques which enable monitoring landscape changes in multiple temporal and spatial scales. MODIS high temporal resolution remote sensing images enable detection of seasonal and phenological trends, while Landsat higher spatial resolution images, with its long term archive enables inter-annual trend analysis over several decades. The objective of this study to use multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data to model the response of farmland species to landscape metrics. The study area is the predominantly agricultural region of eastern Ontario. 92 sample landscapes were selected within this region using a protocol designed to maximize variance in composition and configuration heterogeneity while controlling for amount of forest and spatial autocorrelation. Two sample landscape extents (1×1km and 3×3km) were selected to analyze the impacts of spatial scale on biodiversity response. Gamma diversity index data for four taxa groups (birds, butterflies, plants, and beetles) were collected during the summers of 2011 and 2012 within the cropped area of each landscape. To extract the seasonal and phenological metrics a 2000-2012 MODIS NDVI time-series was used, while a 1985-2012 Landsat time-series was used to model the inter-annual trends of change in the sample landscapes. The results of statistical modeling showed significant relationships between farmland biodiversity for several taxa and the phenological and inter-annual variables. The following general results were obtained: 1) Among the taxa groups, plant and beetles diversity was most significantly correlated with the phenological variables; 2) Those phenological variables which are associated with the variability in the start of

Improving the Accuracy of Laplacian Estimation with Novel Variable Inter-Ring Distances Concentric Ring Electrodes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleksandr Makeyev

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Noninvasive concentric ring electrodes are a promising alternative to conventional disc electrodes. Currently, the superiority of tripolar concentric ring electrodes over disc electrodes, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation, has been demonstrated in a range of applications. In our recent work, we have shown that accuracy of Laplacian estimation can be improved with multipolar concentric ring electrodes using a general approach to estimation of the Laplacian for an (n + 1-polar electrode with n rings using the (4n + 1-point method for n ≥ 2. This paper takes the next step toward further improving the Laplacian estimate by proposing novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes. Derived using a modified (4n + 1-point method, linearly increasing and decreasing inter-ring distances tripolar (n = 2 and quadripolar (n = 3 electrode configurations are compared to their constant inter-ring distances counterparts. Finite element method modeling and analytic results are consistent and suggest that increasing inter-ring distances electrode configurations may decrease the truncation error resulting in more accurate Laplacian estimates compared to respective constant inter-ring distances configurations. For currently used tripolar electrode configuration, the truncation error may be decreased more than two-fold, while for the quadripolar configuration more than a six-fold decrease is expected.

Improving the Accuracy of Laplacian Estimation with Novel Variable Inter-Ring Distances Concentric Ring Electrodes

Science.gov (United States)

Makeyev, Oleksandr; Besio, Walter G.

2016-01-01

Noninvasive concentric ring electrodes are a promising alternative to conventional disc electrodes. Currently, the superiority of tripolar concentric ring electrodes over disc electrodes, in particular, in accuracy of Laplacian estimation, has been demonstrated in a range of applications. In our recent work, we have shown that accuracy of Laplacian estimation can be improved with multipolar concentric ring electrodes using a general approach to estimation of the Laplacian for an (n + 1)-polar electrode with n rings using the (4n + 1)-point method for n ≥ 2. This paper takes the next step toward further improving the Laplacian estimate by proposing novel variable inter-ring distances concentric ring electrodes. Derived using a modified (4n + 1)-point method, linearly increasing and decreasing inter-ring distances tripolar (n = 2) and quadripolar (n = 3) electrode configurations are compared to their constant inter-ring distances counterparts. Finite element method modeling and analytic results are consistent and suggest that increasing inter-ring distances electrode configurations may decrease the truncation error resulting in more accurate Laplacian estimates compared to respective constant inter-ring distances configurations. For currently used tripolar electrode configuration, the truncation error may be decreased more than two-fold, while for the quadripolar configuration more than a six-fold decrease is expected. PMID:27294933

Inter-annual trends of heavy metals in marine resources from the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Inter-annual trends of heavy metals in marine resources from the Nigerian territorial waters. ... African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology ... Abstract. In an attempt to monitor and assess the pollution status of marine resources in the Nigerian territorial waters, this study was carried out to reveal the levels and ...

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Intraregional and inter-regional variability of herbicide sensitivity in common arable weed populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

de Mol, Friederike; Gerowitt, Bärbel; Kaczmarek, Sylwia

2015-01-01

The question on intraregional versus inter-regional variability in herbicide sensitivity for weed populations is of major importance, both in extrapolation of model parameters and in herbicide zonal approval procedures. We hypothesised that inter-regional variability in herbicide sensitivity for ...

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and

High Variability Is a Defining Component of Mediterranean-Climate Rivers and Their Biota

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Núria Cid

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Variability in flow as a result of seasonal precipitation patterns is a defining element of streams and rivers in Mediterranean-climate regions of the world and strongly influences the biota of these unique systems. Mediterranean-climate areas include the Mediterranean Basin and parts of Australia, California, Chile, and South Africa. Mediterranean streams and rivers can experience wet winters and consequent floods to severe droughts, when intermittency in otherwise perennial systems can occur. Inter-annual variation in precipitation can include multi-year droughts or consecutive wet years. Spatial variation in patterns of precipitation (rain vs. snow combined with topographic variability lead to spatial variability in hydrologic patterns that influence populations and communities. Mediterranean streams and rivers are global biodiversity hotspots and are particularly vulnerable to human impacts. Biomonitoring, conservation efforts, and management responses to climate change require approaches that account for spatial and temporal variability (including both intra- and inter-annual. The importance of long-term data sets for understanding and managing these systems highlights the need for sustained and coordinated research efforts in Mediterranean-climate streams and rivers.

The use of GIS in determining the impacts of climate variability on ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study developed a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) database and mapped inter-annual changes in tuber crop yield, as a response to inter-annual rainfall variability in the Guinea Savanna ecological zone of Nigeria. It also related the spatiotemporal variability in rainfall with tuber yields. Two major tuber crops, ...

The annual cycle of African climate and its variability | Jury | Water SA

African Journals Online (AJOL)

low) annual cycle correspond with La Nina (El Nino) and increased (decreased) inter-annual fluctuations of the African climate. A composite analysis shows that the South Atlantic Hadley cell and standing waves in the subtropical jet may connect ...

Inter-annual variation of carbon uptake by a plantation oak woodland in south-eastern England

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Wilkinson

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The carbon balance of an 80-yr-old deciduous oak plantation in the temperate oceanic climate of the south-east of Great Britain was measured by eddy covariance over 12 yr (1999–2010. The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP was 486 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ (95% CI of ±73 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, and this was partitioned into a gross primary productivity (GPP of 2034 ± 145 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, over a 165 (±6 day growing season, and an annual loss of carbon through respiration and decomposition (ecosystem respiration, R_eco of 1548 ± 122 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹. Although the maximum variation of NEP between years was large (333 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹, the ratio of R_eco/GPP remained relatively constant (0.76 ± 0.02 CI. Some anomalies in the annual patterns of the carbon balance could be linked to particular weather events, such as low summer solar radiation and low soil moisture content (values below 30% by volume. The European-wide heat wave and drought of 2003 did not reduce the NEP of this woodland because of good water supply from the surface-water gley soil. The inter-annual variation in estimated intercepted radiation only accounted for ~ 47% of the variation in GPP, although a significant relationship (p < 0.001 was found between peak leaf area index and annual GPP, which modified the efficiency with which incident radiation was used in net CO₂ uptake. Whilst the spring start and late autumn end of the net CO₂ uptake period varied substantially (range of 24 and 27 days respectively, annual GPP was not related to growing season length. Severe outbreaks of defoliating moth caterpillars, mostly Tortrix viridana L. and Operophtera brumata L., caused considerable damage to the forest canopy in 2009 and 2010, resulting in reduced GPP in these two years. Inter-annual variation in

Strong Decomposition of Random Variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoffmann-Jørgensen, Jørgen; Kagan, Abram M.; Pitt, Loren D.

2007-01-01

A random variable X is stongly decomposable if X=Y+Z where Y=Φ(X) and Z=X-Φ(X) are independent non-degenerated random variables (called the components). It is shown that at least one of the components is singular, and we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for strong decomposability...... of a discrete random variable....

Inter-operator Variability in Defining Uterine Position Using Three-dimensional Ultrasound Imaging

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baker, Mariwan; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Behrens, Claus F.

2013-01-01

significantly larger inter-fractional uterine positional displacement, in some cases up to 20 mm, which outweighs the magnitude of current inter-operator variations. Thus, the current US-phantom-study suggests that the inter-operator variability in addressing uterine position is clinically irrelevant.......In radiotherapy the treatment outcome of gynecological (GYN) cancer patients is crucially related to reproducibility of the actual uterine position. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the inter-operator variability in addressing uterine position using a novel 3-D ultrasound (US) system....... The study is initiated by US-scanning of a uterine phantom (CIRS 404, Universal Medical, Norwood, USA) by seven experienced US operators. The phantom represents a female pelvic region, containing a uterus, bladder and rectal landmarks readily definable in the acquired US-scans. The organs are subjected...

Inter-Trial Gait Variability Reduction Using Continous Curve Registration

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Sadeghi, H

2001-01-01

Timing in peak gait values shifts slightly between gait trials. When gait data are averaged, some of the standard deviation can be associated to this inter-trial variability unless normalization is carried out beforehand...

Interaction of Socio-Demographic Background Variables with Inter ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Interaction of Socio-Demographic Background Variables with Inter-Spousal Communication Among Married Couples in Alimosho Local Government Area of Lagos State, Nigeria. ... marriage will increase from 20-24years to 25-29years due to the number of years of couple's educational pursuit in Lagos state of Nigeria.

Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Selvam, A. M.

2017-01-01

Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference

Quantification of Impact of Orbital Drift on Inter-Annual Trends in AVHRR NDVI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jyoteshwar R. Nagol

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time-series data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR have been extensively used for studying inter-annual dynamics of global and regional vegetation. However, there can be significant uncertainties in the data due to incomplete atmospheric correction and orbital drift of the satellites through their active life. Access to location specific quantification of uncertainty is crucial for appropriate evaluation of the trends and anomalies. This paper provides per pixel quantification of orbital drift related spurious trends in Long Term Data Record (LTDR AVHRR NDVI data product. The magnitude and direction of the spurious trends was estimated by direct comparison with data from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Aqua instrument, which has stable inter-annual sun-sensor geometry. The maps show presence of both positive as well as negative spurious trends in the data. After application of the BRDF correction, an overall decrease in positive trends and an increase in number of pixels with negative spurious trends were observed. The mean global spurious inter-annual NDVI trend before and after BRDF correction was 0.0016 and −0.0017 respectively. The research presented in this paper gives valuable insight into the magnitude of orbital drift related trends in the AVHRR NDVI data as well as the degree to which it is being rectified by the MODIS BRDF correction algorithm used by the LTDR processing stream.

Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees

Science.gov (United States)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.

2005-12-01

Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.

Inter-annual changes in detritus-based food chains can enhance plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

Science.gov (United States)

Hines, Jes; Eisenhauer, Nico; Drake, Bert G

2015-12-01

Elevated atmospheric CO2 generally enhances plant growth, but the magnitude of the effects depend, in part, on nutrient availability and plant photosynthetic pathway. Due to their pivotal role in nutrient cycling, changes in abundance of detritivores could influence the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on essential ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and primary production. We conducted a field survey and a microcosm experiment to test the influence of changes in detritus-based food chains on litter mass loss and plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2 using two wetland plants: a C3 sedge (Scirpus olneyi) and a C4 grass (Spartina patens). Our field study revealed that organism's sensitivity to climate increased with trophic level resulting in strong inter-annual variation in detritus-based food chain length. Our microcosm experiment demonstrated that increased detritivore abundance could not only enhance decomposition rates, but also enhance plant growth of S. olneyi in elevated atmospheric CO2 conditions. In contrast, we found no evidence that changes in the detritus-based food chains influenced the growth of S. patens. Considered together, these results emphasize the importance of approaches that unite traditionally subdivided food web compartments and plant physiological processes to understand inter-annual variation in plant production response to elevated atmospheric CO2. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Kucharski

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña event leads to rising (sinking motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

Science.gov (United States)

Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

2012-12-01

Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter

Elephant overflows: Multi-annual variability in Weddell Sea Deep Water driven by surface forcing

Science.gov (United States)

Meijers, Andrew; Meredith, Michael; Abrahamsen, Povl; Naviera-Garabato, Alberto; Ángel Morales Maqueda, Miguel; Polzin, Kurt

2015-04-01

The volume of the deepest and densest water mass in Drake Passage, Lower Weddell Sea Deep Water (LWSDW), is shown to have been decreasing over the last 20 years of observations, with an associated reduction in density driven by freshening. Superimposed on this long term trend is a multi-annual oscillation with a period of 3-5 years. This variability only appears in Drake Passage; observations in the east of the Scotia Sea show a similar long term trend, but with no apparent multi-annual variability. Clues as to the source of this variability may be found on the continental slope at approximately 1000 m immediately north of Elephant Island on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here there is an intermittent westward flowing cold/fresh slope current whose volume and properties are strongly correlated with the LWSDW multi-annual variability, although leading the LWSDW by around one year. As the slope current and LWSDW are separated from each other both geographically and in water mass characteristics, their co-variability implies that they are responding to a common forcing, while the lag between deep LWSDW and shallow slope current provides information on the timescale of this response. A newly available high resolution temperature and salinity multi-year time series from the Elephant Island slope at 1000 m is compared with reanalysis and model derived surface fluxes, sea ice extent and wind stress. We find that there are strong positive relationships between the surface wind stress and heat flux over the shelf at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and the properties of the slope current at 1000 m on seasonal to annual timescales. We use tracer release experiments in the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) model to investigate the lag between the slope current and LWSDW timeseries and hypothesise that the observed multi-annual variability in both water masses is driven by surface forcing over the shelf and the overflow of modified water from the slope in

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiao; Ding, Ruiqiang; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhong, Quanjia; Li, Baosheng; Li, Jianping

2018-05-01

The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictability appears from the early 1950s through the late 1970s and during the early 2000s, whereas the potential predictability is relatively high from the early 1980s through the late 1990s. The inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM can be attributed mainly to variations in the external signal of the EASM. The latter is mostly caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) inter-decadal variability. As a major external signal of the EASM, the ENSO inter-decadal variability experiences phase transitions from negative to positive phases in the late 1970s, and to negative phases in the late 1990s. Additionally, ENSO is generally strong (weak) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. The strong ENSO is expected to have a greater influence on the EASM, and vice versa. As a result, the potential predictability of the EASM tends to be high (low) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. Furthermore, a suite of Pacific Pacemaker experiments suggests that the ENSO inter-decadal variability may be a key pacemaker of the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM.

Inter-individual Differences in Heart Rate Variability Are Associated with Inter-individual Differences in Empathy and Alexithymia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Lischke

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In the present study, we investigated whether inter-individual differences in vagally mediated heart rate variability (vmHRV would be associated with inter-individual differences in empathy and alexithymia. To this end, we determined resting state HF-HRV in 90 individuals that also completed questionnaires assessing inter-individual differences in empathy and alexithymia. Our categorical and dimensional analyses revealed that inter-individual differences in HF-HRV were differently associated with inter-individual differences in empathy and alexithymia. We found that individuals with high HF-HRV reported more empathy and less alexithymia than individuals with low HF-HRV. Moreover, we even found that an increase in HF-HRV was associated with an increase in empathy and a decrease in alexithymia across all participants. Taken together, these findings indicate that individuals with high HF-HRV are more empathetic and less alexithymic than individuals with low HF-HRV. These differences in empathy and alexithymia may explain why individuals with high HF-HRV are more successful in sharing and understanding the mental and emotional states of others than individuals with low HF-HRV.

Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Hytteborn, Julia K.; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Futter, Martyn N.; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H.

2015-01-01

Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.

Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tianyi; Huang, Yao

2012-06-01

Negative climate impacts on crop yield increase pressures on food security in China. In this study, climatic impacts on cereal yields (rice, wheat and maize) were investigated by analyzing climate-yield relationships from 1980 to 2008. Results indicated that warming was significant, but trends in precipitation and solar radiation were not statistically significant in most of China. In general, maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, increase in temperature was correlated with both lower and higher yield of rice and wheat, which is inconsistent with the current view that warming results in decline in yields. Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower precipitation, which mainly occurred in northern parts of China, suggesting droughts reduced yield due to lack of water resources. Similarly, a positive correlation between temperature and yield can be alternatively explained by the effect of solar radiation, mainly in the southern part of China where water resources are abundant. Overall, our study suggests that it is inter-annual variations in precipitation and solar radiation that have driven change in cereal yields in China over the last three decades. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

Science.gov (United States)

Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

2017-04-01

Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

A procedure to derive intra-and inter-annual changes on vegetation from NDVI time series. A case study in Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilabert, M. A; Martinez, B.; Melia, J.

2009-01-01

The objective of this work is to study the spatial patterns of vegetation activity over spain and its temporal variability throughout the period 1989-2002. A multi-resolution analysis (MRA) bases on the wavelet transform has been implemented on NDVI time series from the MEDOKADS database. The MRA decomposes the original signal as a sum of series associated with temporal scales. Specifically, the intra-annual series is processed to define several key features in relation with the vegetation penology. In contras, the inter-annual components of the signal is used to detect trends by means of a Mann-Kendall test and map the magnitude of the land-cover change. Finally, a comprehensive identification of the areas presenting a negative value of the magnitude of change is carried out to select those linked to land degradation processes. Results show a major presence of these areas the Southeast of Spain. (Author) 5 refs.

A procedure to derive intra-and inter-annual changes on vegetation from NDVI time series. A case study in Spain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gilabert, M. A; Martinez, B.; Melia, J.

2009-07-01

The objective of this work is to study the spatial patterns of vegetation activity over spain and its temporal variability throughout the period 1989-2002. A multi-resolution analysis (MRA) bases on the wavelet transform has been implemented on NDVI time series from the MEDOKADS database. The MRA decomposes the original signal as a sum of series associated with temporal scales. Specifically, the intra-annual series is processed to define several key features in relation with the vegetation penology. In contras, the inter-annual components of the signal is used to detect trends by means of a Mann-Kendall test and map the magnitude of the land-cover change. Finally, a comprehensive identification of the areas presenting a negative value of the magnitude of change is carried out to select those linked to land degradation processes. Results show a major presence of these areas the Southeast of Spain. (Author) 5 refs.

Longitudinal intra- and inter-individual variability in young swimmers' performance and determinant competition factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Estrela Morais

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to follow-up the intra- and inter-individual variability of young swimmers' performance and determinant factors over two competitive seasons. Thirty young swimmers (14 boys: 12.33±0.65 years-old; 16 girls: 11.15±0.55 years-old were followed-up throughout two consecutive seasons (seven evaluation moments. Performance (100m freestyle, anthropometric, kinematic, hydrodynamic and efficiency features were evaluated. A gender and skill-level effect was observed. Boys improved in a higher amount (% comparing to girls. Overall, swimmers in skill-level 2 (both genders presented a higher intra-individual variability. Performance and anthropometrics showed a significant inter-individual variability in most moments, but hydrodynamics, kinematics and efficiency did not. Within each skill-level hydrodynamics, kinematics and efficiency were the variables that showed a high inter-individual variability. As a gender and skill-level effect was noticed in an age-group of young swimmers, coaches and practitioners should put the focus in specific and customized training plans for each skill-level of swimmers.

Inter-observer variability in contouring the penile bulb on CT images for prostate cancer treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perna, Lucia; Cozzarini, Cesare; Maggiulli, Eleonora; Fellin, Gianni; Rancati, Tiziana; Valdagni, Riccardo; Vavassori, Vittorio; Villa, Sergio; Fiorino, Claudio

2011-01-01

Several investigations have recently suggested the existence of a correlation between the dose received by the penile bulb (PB) and the risk of erectile dysfunction (ED) after radical radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate carcinoma. A prospective multi-Institute study (DUE-01) was implemented with the aim to assess the predictive parameters of ED. Previously, an evaluation of inter-observer variations of PB contouring was mandatory in order to quantify its impact on PB dose-volume parameters by means of a dummy run exercise. Fifteen observers, from different Institutes, drew the PB on the planning CT images of ten patients; inter-observer variations were analysed in terms of PB volume variation and cranial/caudal limits. 3DCRT treatment plans were simulated to evaluate the impact of PB contouring inter-variability on dose-volume statistics parameters. For DVH analysis the values of PB mean dose and the volume of PB receiving more than 50 Gy and 70 Gy (V50 and V70, respectively) were considered. Systematic differences from the average values were assessed by the Wilcoxon test. Seven observers systematically overestimated or underestimated the PB volume with deviations from the average volumes ranging between -48% and +34% (p < 0.05). The analysis of the cranial and caudal borders showed a prevalence of random over systematic deviations. Inter-observer contouring variability strongly impacts on DVH parameters, although standard deviations of inter-patient differences were larger than inter-observer variations: 14.5 Gy versus 6.8 Gy for mean PB dose, 23.0% versus 11.0% and 16.8% versus 9.3% for V50 and V70 respectively. In conclusion, despite the large inter-observer variation in contouring PB, a large multi-centric study may have the possibility to detect a possible correlation between PB % dose-volume parameters and ED. The impact of contouring uncertainty could be reduced by 'a posteriori' contouring from a single observer or by introducing

Inter-individual cognitive variability in children with Asperger’s syndrome

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Maria Luz Gonzalez-Gadea

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Multiple studies have tried to establish the distinctive profile of individuals with Asperger’s syndrome (AS. However, recent reports suggest that adults with AS feature heterogeneous cognitive profiles. The present study explores inter-individual variability in children with AS through group comparison and multiple case series analysis. All participants completed an extended battery including measures of fluid and crystallized intelligence, executive functions, theory of mind, and classical neuropsychological tests. Significant group differences were found in theory of mind and other domains related to global information processing. However, the AS group showed high inter-individual variability (both sub- and supra-normal performance on most cognitive tasks. Furthermore, high fluid intelligence correlated with less general cognitive impairment, high cognitive flexibility, and speed motor processing. In light of these findings, we propose that children with AS are characterized by a distinct, uneven pattern of cognitive strengths and weaknesses.

Inter-annual cascade effect on marine food web: A benthic pathway lagging nutrient supply to pelagic fish stock.

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Lohengrin Dias de Almeida Fernandes

Full Text Available Currently, spatial and temporal changes in nutrients availability, marine planktonic, and fish communities are best described on a shorter than inter-annual (seasonal scale, primarily because the simultaneous year-to-year variations in physical, chemical, and biological parameters are very complex. The limited availability of time series datasets furnishing simultaneous evaluations of temperature, nutrients, plankton, and fish have limited our ability to describe and to predict variability related to short-term process, as species-specific phenology and environmental seasonality. In the present study, we combine a computational time series analysis on a 15-year (1995-2009 weekly-sampled time series (high-resolution long-term time series, 780 weeks with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to track non-seasonal changes in 10 potentially related parameters: sea surface temperature, nutrient concentrations (NO2, NO3, NH4 and PO4, phytoplankton biomass (as in situ chlorophyll a biomass, meroplankton (barnacle and mussel larvae, and fish abundance (Mugil liza and Caranx latus. Our data demonstrate for the first time that highly intense and frequent upwelling years initiate a huge energy flux that is not fully transmitted through classical size-structured food web by bottom-up stimulus but through additional ontogenetic steps. A delayed inter-annual sequential effect from phytoplankton up to top predators as carnivorous fishes is expected if most of energy is trapped into benthic filter feeding organisms and their larval forms. These sequential events can explain major changes in ecosystem food web that were not predicted in previous short-term models.

Estimating annual bole biomass production using uncertainty analysis

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Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O' Connell

2007-01-01

Two common sampling methodologies coupled with a simple statistical model were evaluated to determine the accuracy and precision of annual bole biomass production (BBP) and inter-annual variability estimates using this type of approach. We performed an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with radial growth core data from trees in three Douglas...

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

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Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation

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Jury, Mark R.

2016-11-01

Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

Characterization of inter-tissue and inter-strain variability of TCE glutathione conjugation metabolites DCVG, DCVC, and NAcDCVC in the mouse.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Yu-Syuan; Furuya, Shinji; Chiu, Weihsueh; Rusyn, Ivan

2018-01-01

Trichloroethylene (TCE) is a ubiquitous environmental toxicant that is a liver and kidney carcinogen. Conjugation of TCE with glutathione (GSH) leads to formation of nepthrotoxic and mutagenic metabolites postulated to be critical for kidney cancerdevelopment; however, relatively little is known regarding their tissue levels as previous analytical methods for their detection lacked sensitivity. Here, an LC-MS/MS-based method for simultaneous detection of S-(1,2-dichlorovinyl)-glutathione (DCVG), S-(1,2-dichlorovinyl)-L-cysteine (DCVC), and N-acetyl-S-(1,2-dichlorovinyl)-L-cysteine (NAcDCVC) in multiple mouse tissues was developed. This analytical method is rapid, sensitive (limits of detection (LOD) 3-30 fmol across metabolites and tissues), and robust to quantify all three metabolites in liver, kidneys, and serum. The method was used to characterize inter-tissue and inter-strain variability in formation of conjugative metabolites of TCE. Single oral dose of TCE (24, 240 or 800 mg/kg) was administered to male mice from 20 inbred strains of Collaborative Cross. Inter-strain variability in the levels of DCVG, DCVC, and NAcDCVC (GSD = 1.6-2.9) was observed. Whereas NAcDCVC was distributed equally among analyzed tissues, highest levels of DCVG were detected in liver and DCVC in kidneys. Evidence indicated that inter-strain variability in conjugative metabolite formation of TCE might affect susceptibility to adverse health effects and that this method might aid in filling data gaps in human health assessment of TCE.

Drivers of inter-annual variation and long-term change in High-Arctic spider species abundances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bowden, Joseph J.; Hansen, Oskar L. P.; Olsen, Kent

2018-01-01

Understanding how species abundances vary in space and time is a central theme in ecology, yet there are few long-term field studies of terrestrial invertebrate abundances and the determinants of their dynamics. This is particularly relevant in the context of rapid climate change occurring...... in the Arctic. Arthropods can serve as strong indicators of ecosystem change due to their sensitivity to increasing temperatures and other environmental variables. We used spider samples collected by pitfall trapping from three different habitats (fen, mesic and arid heath) in High-Arctic Greenland to assess...... interpretation of long-term trends. We used model selection to determine which climatic variables and/or previous years’ abundance best explained annual variation in species abundances over this period. We identified and used 28 566 adult spiders that comprised eight species. Most notably, the abundances of some...

Longitudinal differences and inter-annual variations of zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere and troposphere

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Reddy, C. A.; Raghava Reddi, C.

1986-12-01

A quantitative assessment has been made of the longitude-dependent differences and the interannual variations of the zonal wind components in the equatorial stratosphere and troposphere, from the analysis of rocket and balloon data for 1979 and 1980 for three stations near ±8.5° latitude (Ascension Island at 14.4°W, Thumba at 76.9°E and Kwajalein at 67.7°E) and two stations near 21.5° latitude (Barking Sands at 159.6°W and Balasore at 86.9°E). The longitude-dependent differences are found to be about 10-20 m s -1 (amounting to 50-200% in some cases) for the semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and the annual oscillation (AO) amplitudes, depending upon the altitude and latitude. Inter-annual variations of about 10 m s -1 also exist in both oscillations. The phase of the SAO exhibits an almost 180° shift at Kwajalein compared to that at the other two stations near 8.5°, while the phase of the AO is independent of longitude, in the stratosphere. The amplitude and phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are found to be almost independent of longitude in the 18-38 km range, but above 40 km height the QBO amplitude and phase have different values in different longitude sectors for the three stations near ±8.5° latitude. The mean zonal wind shows no change from 1979 to 1980, but in the troposphere at 8.5° latitude strong easterlies prevail in the Indian zone, in contrast to the westerlies at the Atlantic and Pacific stations.

Medizinbibliotheken: inter:disziplinär – inter:national –inter:aktiv

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Bauer, Bruno

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The focus of the current issue 3/2017 of GMS Medizin – Bibliothek – Information is the annual conference 2017 of the German Medical Libraries Association in Vienna. The motto of the conference was “Medical Libraries: inter:disciplinary – inter:national – inter:active”. The authors in this issue are Bruno Bauer (Austrian Transition to Open Access 2017–2020, Beata Górczynska (Development and structure of Polish veterinary school system and its libraries, Katharina Heldt, Henriette Senst & Jessica Riedel (Salon on the institute’s history: outstanding artifacts. 28.01.2016 to 15.12.2016, Jutta Matrisciano, Martina Semmler-Schmetz & Saskia Rohmer (Advice – From info snack to special menu: Solutions of the MedMA-Bib, Stefan Nortmann (The ‘Ersti-Café’ of the Medical Branch Library Münster, Sandra Rümmele (Toolbox: The new teaching library project of the Central Medical Library of the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Eva Seidlmayer & Christoph Poley (One Health – Transdisciplinarity at ZB MED and Heike Andermann (“Medical Libraries: inter:disciplinary – inter:national – inter:active”. Annual Meeting of the German Medical Library Association (AGMB, September 25 to 27, 2017 in Vienna. Furthermore this focus issue features articles from Stefan Grün & Christoph Poley (Statistical evaluation of semantic entities from metadata and full text on German Medical Science corpora and Iris Reimann (German MLA News; Competition of the German MLA Pioneer projects in medical libraries 2017: Introduction of the winners; Competition of the German MLA (AGMB Pioneer projects in medical libraries 2018 – Announcement.

Inter-subject variability in human atrial action potential in sinus rhythm versus chronic atrial fibrillation.

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Carlos Sánchez

Full Text Available Human atrial electrophysiology exhibits high inter-subject variability in both sinus rhythm (SR and chronic atrial fibrillation (cAF patients. Variability is however rarely investigated in experimental and theoretical electrophysiological studies, thus hampering the understanding of its underlying causes but also its implications in explaining differences in the response to disease and treatment. In our study, we aim at investigating the ability of populations of human atrial cell models to capture the inter-subject variability in action potential (AP recorded in 363 patients both under SR and cAF conditions.Human AP recordings in atrial trabeculae (n = 469 from SR and cAF patients were used to calibrate populations of computational SR and cAF atrial AP models. Three populations of over 2000 sampled models were generated, based on three different human atrial AP models. Experimental calibration selected populations of AP models yielding AP with morphology and duration in range with experimental recordings. Populations using the three original models can mimic variability in experimental AP in both SR and cAF, with median conductance values in SR for most ionic currents deviating less than 30% from their original peak values. All cAF populations show similar variations in G(K1, G(Kur and G(to, consistent with AF-related remodeling as reported in experiments. In all SR and cAF model populations, inter-subject variability in I(K1 and I(NaK underlies variability in APD90, variability in I(Kur, I(CaL and I(NaK modulates variability in APD50 and combined variability in Ito and I(Kur determines variability in APD20. The large variability in human atrial AP triangulation is mostly determined by I(K1 and either I(NaK or I(NaCa depending on the model.Experimentally-calibrated human atrial AP models populations mimic AP variability in SR and cAF patient recordings, and identify potential ionic determinants of inter-subject variability in human atrial AP

The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hetzel, Yasha; Wijeratne, E. M. S.

2018-03-01

Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994-2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.

Variations of Histone Modification Patterns: Contributions of Inter-plant Variability and Technical Factors

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Sylva Brabencová

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Inter-individual variability of conspecific plants is governed by differences in their genetically determined growth and development traits, environmental conditions, and adaptive responses under epigenetic control involving histone post-translational modifications. The apparent variability in histone modifications among plants might be increased by technical variation introduced in sample processing during epigenetic analyses. Thus, to detect true variations in epigenetic histone patterns associated with given factors, the basal variability among samples that is not associated with them must be estimated. To improve knowledge of relative contribution of biological and technical variation, mass spectrometry was used to examine histone modification patterns (acetylation and methylation among Arabidopsis thaliana plants of ecotypes Columbia 0 (Col-0 and Wassilewskija (Ws homogenized by two techniques (grinding in a cryomill or with a mortar and pestle. We found little difference in histone modification profiles between the ecotypes. However, in comparison of the biological and technical components of variability, we found consistently higher inter-individual variability in histone mark levels among Ws plants than among Col-0 plants (grown from seeds collected either from single plants or sets of plants. Thus, more replicates of Ws would be needed for rigorous analysis of epigenetic marks. Regarding technical variability, the cryomill introduced detectably more heterogeneity in the data than the mortar and pestle treatment, but mass spectrometric analyses had minor apparent effects. Our study shows that it is essential to consider inter-sample variance and estimate suitable numbers of biological replicates for statistical analysis for each studied organism when investigating changes in epigenetic histone profiles.

Variations of Histone Modification Patterns: Contributions of Inter-plant Variability and Technical Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brabencová, Sylva; Ihnatová, Ivana; Potěšil, David; Fojtová, Miloslava; Fajkus, Jiří; Zdráhal, Zbyněk; Lochmanová, Gabriela

2017-01-01

Inter-individual variability of conspecific plants is governed by differences in their genetically determined growth and development traits, environmental conditions, and adaptive responses under epigenetic control involving histone post-translational modifications. The apparent variability in histone modifications among plants might be increased by technical variation introduced in sample processing during epigenetic analyses. Thus, to detect true variations in epigenetic histone patterns associated with given factors, the basal variability among samples that is not associated with them must be estimated. To improve knowledge of relative contribution of biological and technical variation, mass spectrometry was used to examine histone modification patterns (acetylation and methylation) among Arabidopsis thaliana plants of ecotypes Columbia 0 (Col-0) and Wassilewskija (Ws) homogenized by two techniques (grinding in a cryomill or with a mortar and pestle). We found little difference in histone modification profiles between the ecotypes. However, in comparison of the biological and technical components of variability, we found consistently higher inter-individual variability in histone mark levels among Ws plants than among Col-0 plants (grown from seeds collected either from single plants or sets of plants). Thus, more replicates of Ws would be needed for rigorous analysis of epigenetic marks. Regarding technical variability, the cryomill introduced detectably more heterogeneity in the data than the mortar and pestle treatment, but mass spectrometric analyses had minor apparent effects. Our study shows that it is essential to consider inter-sample variance and estimate suitable numbers of biological replicates for statistical analysis for each studied organism when investigating changes in epigenetic histone profiles.

Inter-observer variability between radiologists reporting on cerebellopontine angle tumours on magnetic resonance imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Teh, S R; Ranguis, S; Fagan, P

2017-01-01

Studies demonstrate the significance of intra- and inter-observer variability when measuring cerebellopontine angle tumours on magnetic resonance imaging, with measured differences as high as 2 mm. To determine intra- and inter-observer measurement variability of cerebellopontine angle tumours in a specialised institution. The magnetic resonance imaging maximal diameter of 12 randomly selected cerebellopontine angle tumours were independently measured by 4 neuroradiologists at a tertiary referral centre using a standard definition for maximal tumour diameter. Average deviation and intraclass correlation were subsequently calculated. Inter-observer difference averaged 0.33 ± 0.04 mm (range, 0.0-0.8 mm). Intra-observer measurements were more consistent than inter-observer measurements, with differences averaging 0.17 mm (95 per cent confidence interval = 0.27-0.06, p = 0.002). Inter-observer reliability was 0.99 (95 per cent confidence interval = 0.97-0.99), suggesting high reliability between the readings. The use of a standard definition for maximal tumour volume provided high reliability amongst radiologists' readings. To avoid oversizing tumours, it is recommended that conservative monitoring be conducted by the same institution with thin slice magnetic resonance imaging scans.

Gonioscopy in the dog: inter-examiner variability and the search for a grading scheme.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, J A C; Cottrell, B C; Newton, J R; Mellersh, C S

2017-11-01

To investigate inter-examiner variability in gonioscopic evaluation of pectinate ligament abnormality in dogs and to assess level of inter-examiner agreement for four different gonioscopy grading schemes. Two examiners performed gonioscopy in 98 eyes of 49 Welsh springer spaniel dogs and estimated the percentage circumference of iridocorneal angle affected by pectinate ligament abnormality to the nearest 5%. Percentage scores assigned to each eye by the two examiners were compared. Inter-examiner agreement was assessed following assignment of the percentage scores to each of four grading schemes by Cohen's kappa statistic. There was a strong positive correlation between the results of the two examiners (R=0·91). In general, Examiner 1 scored individual eyes higher than Examiner 2, especially for eyes in which both examiners diagnosed pectinate ligament abnormality. A "good" level of agreement could only be achieved with a gonioscopy grading scheme of no more than three categories and with a relatively large intermediate bandwidth (κ=0·68). A three-tiered grading scheme might represent an improvement on hereditary eye disease schemes which simply classify dogs to be either "affected" or "unaffected" for pectinate ligament abnormality. However, the large intermediate bandwidth of this scheme would only allow for the additional detection of those dogs with marked progression of pectinate ligament abnormality which would be considered most at risk of primary closed-angle glaucoma. © 2017 British Small Animal Veterinary Association.

Inter-annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Semi-arid Oak-savanna Ecosystem: Measured and Modeled Buffering to Precipitation Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Raz-Yaseef, N.; Sonnentag, O.; Kobayashi, H.; Baldocchi, D. D.

2010-12-01

Precipitation (P) is the primary control on vegetation dynamics and productivity, implying that climate induced disturbances in frequency and timing of P are intimately coupled with fluxes of carbon, water and energy. Future climate change is expected to increase extreme rainfall events as well as droughts, suggesting linked vegetation changes to an unknown extent. Semi-arid climates experience large inter-annual variability (IAV) in P, creating natural conditions adequate to study how year-to-year changes in P affect atmosphere-biosphere fluxes. We used a 10-year flux database collected at a semi-arid savanna site in order to: (1) define IAV in P by means of frequency and timing; (2) investigate how changes in P affect the ecohydrology of the forest and its partitioning into the main vapor fluxes, and (3) evaluate model capability to predict IAV of carbon and water fluxes above and below the canopy. This is based on the perception that the capability of process-oriented models to construct the deviation, and not the average, is important in order to correctly predict ecosystem sensitivity to climate change. Our research site was a low density and low LAI (0.8) semi-arid (P=523±180 mm yr-1) savanna site, combined of oaks and grass, and located at Tonzi ranch, California. Measurements of carbon and water fluxes above and below the tree canopy using eddy covariance and supplementary measurements have been made since 2001. Measured fluxes were compared to modeled based on two bio-meteorological process-oriented ecosystem models: BEPS and 3D-CAONAK. Our results show that IAV in P was large, and standard deviation (STD) was 38% of the average. Accordingly, the wet soil period (measured volumetric water content > 8%) varied between 156 days in dry years to 301 days in wet years. IAV of the vapor fluxes were lower than that of P (STD was 17% for the trees and 23% for the floor components), suggesting on ecosystem buffering to changes in P. The timing of grass green up

Characterizing phenological vegetation dynamics amidst extreme climate variability in Australia with MODIS VI data

Science.gov (United States)

Broich, M.; Huete, A. R.; Xuanlon, M.; Davies, K.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Ratana, P.

2012-12-01

Australia's climate is extremely variable with inter-annual rainfall at any given site varying by 5- or 6-fold or more, across the continent. In addition to such inter-annual variability, there can be significant intra-annual variability, especially in monsoonal Australia (e.g. the wet tropical savannas) and Mediterranean climates in SW Australia where prolonged dry seasons occur each year. This presents unique challenges to the characterization of seasonal dynamics with satellite datasets. In contrast to annual reoccurring temperature-driven phenology of northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, vegetation dynamics of the vast and dry Australian interior are poorly quantified by existing remote sensing products. For example, in the current global-based MODIS phenology product, central Australia is covered by ~30% fill values for any given year. Two challenges are specific to Australian landscapes: first, the difficulty of characterizing seasonality of rainfall-driven ecosystems in interior Australia where duration and magnitude of green-up and brown down cycles show high inter annual variability; second, modeling two phenologic layers, the trees and the grass in savannas were the trees are evergreen but the herbaceous understory varies with rainfall. Savannas cover >50% of Australia. Australia's vegetation and climate are different from other continents. A MODIS phenology product capable of characterizing vegetation dynamics across the continent is being developed in this research as part of the AusCover national expert network aiming to provide Australian biophysical remote sensing data time-series and continental-scale map products. These products aim to support the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) serving ecosystem research in Australia. The MODIS land surface product for Australia first searches the entire time series of each Climate Modeling Grid pixel for low-high-low extreme point sequences. A double logistic function is then fit to each of these

The Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Modeling Research of Inter-Provincial Migration in China

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Xiaomei Fan

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The national census data during 1995 and 2000 and during 2005 and 2010 are selected in this paper to make an analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of the inter-provincial population migration in China. In addition, the general regression model, the extension regression model considering the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag model are established based on the gravity model to make the regression model on China’s inter-provincial population migration over two periods of time. The results show that: (1 the inter-provincial population migration increases rapidly in size with strong geographical proximity; (2 China’s inter-provincial population migration is still in the primary stage of the general process of population migration. In other words, the inter-provincial population emigration and immigration levels have increased greatly with the economic development; (3 Statistically, the inter-provincial population migration is negatively correlated with the level of economic development in the emigrant place and the migration distance and positively correlated with the level of economic development in the immigrant place and the population scale in the emigrant and immigrant places; and (4 The spatio-temporal factor is an important explanatory variable of population migration. The introduction of the historical dependent variable and the spatial lag factor can improve the regression effect of the gravity model greatly, and the historical variable and the spatial factor have strong explanatory power for the inter-provincial population migration.

High inter-specimen variability of baseline data for the tibio-talar contact area.

Science.gov (United States)

Matricali, Giovanni A; Bartels, Ward; Labey, Luc; Dereymaeker, Greta Ph E; Luyten, Frank P; Vander Sloten, Jos

2009-01-01

The tibio-talar contact area has been widely investigated to monitor biomechanical changes due to articular incongruities or an altered loading. This study aims to investigate for the first time in a systematic way the extent of the inter-specimen variability of the tibio-talar contact area, and its repercussions when analyzing data concerning this parameter. Ten specimens were loaded to record the tibio-talar contact characteristics by use of pressure sensitive film. The size of the talar dome area, the size of the (normalized) tibio-talar contact area, the position of the tibio-talar contact area, and the shape of the latter were determined and analyzed. Inter-specimen variability was expressed as the coefficient of variation and was calculated for the datasets of previous studies as well. The size of the tibio-talar contact area showed a very high inter-specimen variability, as is the case in previous studies. This high variability persisted when a normalized tibio-talar contact area was calculated. The shape of the tibio-talar contact area showed some basic characteristics, but a high variation in details could be observed. Every specimen can be considered to have its own "ankle print". By this variability, articular incongruities are expected to have a different effect on local biomechanical characteristics in every single individual. Therefore, every single case has to be evaluated and reported for significant changes. In case of modeling, this also underscores the need to use subject specific models fed by sets of parameters derived from a series of single specimens.

Calcium scoring with prospectively ECG-triggered CT: Using overlapping datasets generated with MPR decreases inter-scan variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutten, A.; Isgum, I.; Prokop, M.

2011-01-01

Objective: To examine the feasibility of reducing the inter-scan variability of prospectively ECG-triggered calcium-scoring scans by using overlapping 3-mm datasets generated from multiplanar reformation (MPR) instead of non-overlapping 3-mm or 1.5-mm datasets. Patients and methods: Seventy-five women (59-79 years old) underwent two sequential prospectively ECG-triggered calcium-scoring scans with 16 mm x 1.5 mm collimation in one session. Between the two scans patients got off and on the table. We performed calcium scoring (Agatston and mass scores) on the following datasets: contiguous 3-mm sections reconstructed from the raw data (A), contiguous 3-mm sections from MPR (B), overlapping 3-mm sections from MPR (C) and contiguous 1.5-mm sections from the raw data (D). To determine the feasibility of the MPR approach, we compared MPR (B) with direct raw data reconstruction (A). Inter-scan variability was calculated for each type of dataset (A-D). Results: Calcium scores ranged from 0 to 1455 (Agatston) and 0 to 279 mg (mass) for overlapping 3-mm sections (C). Calcium scores (both Agatston and mass) were nearly identical for MPR (B) and raw data approaches (A), with inter-quartile ranges of 0-1% for inter-scan variability. Median inter-scan variability with contiguous 3-mm sections (B) was 13% (Agatston) and 11% (mass). Median variability was reduced to 10% (Agatston and mass) with contiguous 1.5-mm sections (D) and to 8% (Agatston) and 7% (mass) with overlapping 3-mm MPR (A). Conclusion: Calcium scoring on MPR yields nearly identical results to calcium scoring on images directly reconstructed from raw data. Overlapping MPR from prospectively ECG-triggered scans improve inter-scan variability of calcium scoring without increasing patient radiation dose.

Inter-Subject Variability of Axonal Injury in Diffuse Traumatic Brain Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Ware, Jeffrey B; Hart, Tessa; Whyte, John; Rabinowitz, Amanda; Detre, John A; Kim, Junghoon

2017-07-15

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of cognitive morbidity worldwide for which reliable biomarkers are needed. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is a promising biomarker of traumatic axonal injury (TAI); however, existing studies have been limited by a primary reliance on group-level analytic methods not well suited to account for inter-subject variability. In this study, 42 adults with TBI of at least moderate severity were examined 3 months following injury and compared with 35 healthy controls. DTI data were used for both traditional group-level comparison and subject-specific analysis using the distribution-corrected Z-score (DisCo-Z) approach. Inter-subject variation in TAI was assessed in a threshold-invariant manner using a threshold-weighted overlap map derived from subject-specific analysis. Receiver operator curve analysis was used to examine the ability of subject-specific DTI analysis to identify TBI subjects with significantly impaired processing speed in comparison with region of interest-based fractional anisotropy (FA) measurements and clinical characteristics. Traditional group-wise analysis demonstrated widespread reductions of white matter FA within the TBI group (voxel-wise p traumatic deficits in processing speed. Significant group-level effects do not necessarily represent consistent effects at the individual level. Better accounting for inter-subject variability in neurobiological manifestations of TBI may substantially improve the ability to detect and classify patterns of injury.

Inter-observer variability in fetal biometric measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Kilani, Rami; Aleyadeh, Wesam; Atieleh, Luay Abu; Al Suleimat, Abdul Mane; Khadra, Maysa; Hawamdeh, Hassan M

2018-02-01

To evaluate inter-observer variability and reproducibility of ultrasound measurements for fetal biometric parameters. A prospective cohort study was implemented in two tertiary care hospitals in Amman, Jordan; Prince Hamza Hospital and Albashir Hospital. 192 women with a singleton pregnancy at a gestational age of 18-36 weeks were the participants in the study. Transabdominal scans for fetal biometric parameter measurement were performed on study participants from the period of November 2014 to March 2015. Women who agreed to participate in the study were administered two ultrasound scans for head circumference, abdominal circumference and femur length. The correlation coefficient was calculated. Bland-Altman plots were used to analyze the degree of measurement agreement between observers. Limits of agreement ± 2 SD for the differences in fetal biometry measurements in proportions of the mean of the measurements were derived. Main outcome measures examine the reproducibility of fetal biometric measurements by different observers. High inter-observer inter-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was found for femur length (0.990) and abdominal circumference (0.996) where Bland-Altman plots showed high degrees of agreement. The highest degrees of agreement were noted in the measurement of abdominal circumference followed by head circumference. The lowest degree of agreement was found for femur length measurement. We used a paired-sample t-test and found that the mean difference between duplicate measurements was not significant (P > 0.05). Biometric fetal parameter measurements may be reproducible by different operators in the clinical setting with similar results. Fetal head circumference, abdominal circumference and femur length were highly reproducible. Large organized studies are needed to ensure accurate fetal measurements due to the important clinical implications of inaccurate measurements. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Intra- and inter-basin mercury comparisons: Importance of basin scale and time-weighted methylmercury estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bradley, Paul M.; Journey, Celeste A.; Brigham, Mark E.; Burns, Douglas A.; Button, Daniel T.; Riva-Murray, Karen

2013-01-01

To assess inter-comparability of fluvial mercury (Hg) observations at substantially different scales, Hg concentrations, yields, and bivariate-relations were evaluated at nested-basin locations in the Edisto River, South Carolina and Hudson River, New York. Differences between scales were observed for filtered methylmercury (FMeHg) in the Edisto (attributed to wetland coverage differences) but not in the Hudson. Total mercury (THg) concentrations and bivariate-relationships did not vary substantially with scale in either basin. Combining results of this and a previously published multi-basin study, fish Hg correlated strongly with sampled water FMeHg concentration (ρ = 0.78; p = 0.003) and annual FMeHg basin yield (ρ = 0.66; p = 0.026). Improved correlation (ρ = 0.88; p < 0.0001) was achieved with time-weighted mean annual FMeHg concentrations estimated from basin-specific LOADEST models and daily streamflow. Results suggest reasonable scalability and inter-comparability for different basin sizes if wetland area or related MeHg-source-area metrics are considered. - Highlights: ► National scale mercury assessments integrate small scale study results. ► Basin scale differences and representativeness of fluvial mercury samples are concerns. ► Wetland area, not basin size, predicts inter-basin methylmercury variability. ► Time-weighted methylmercury estimates improve the prediction of mercury in basin fish. - Fluvial methylmercury concentration correlates with wetland area not basin scale and time-weighted estimates better predict basin top predator mercury than discrete sample estimates.

How Ocean Color Influences the Interplay Between Annual and Interannual Tropical Pacific Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Hammann, A. C.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2010-12-01

While the basic mechanisms responsible for ENSO have long been known, many details still evade our understanding. Since the behavior of the real climate system appears to be highly sensitive to such details, however, our ability to model, let alone predict it with any confidence has so far been rather restricted. Not only can small perturbations in many state variables lead to strongly amplified responses, but also do spatial and temporal scales of variability rarely occur in isolation from each other. Both points are born out in the study by Anderson et al. (2009), who removed surface chlorophyll in different regions of the tropical (but mostly off-equatorial) Pacific in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-ice model. Different removal patterns lead to large differences in the amplitudes of both ENSO and the equatorial annual cycle. Anderson et al.’s analysis focuses on ENSO and reveals that the transmission of off-equatorial perturbations to the equator happens mainly through a changed atmospheric response to SST anomalies. Here, we analyze the same data with respect to the annual cycle and how it interacts with ENSO. Guilyardi (2006) reports that observations and models alike show a zero-sum-type behavior of annual and ENSO-scale variability; increased spectral power in the annual band means decreased power in the ENSO band and vice versa. This is not the case for the different patterns of chlorophyll removal in our model, and hence it appears that this removal changes a fundamental part of its mean state. The dynamics of the annual cycle are likely influenced by oceanic meridional temperature advection, which provides another possible route for off-to-equatorial signal propagation. A common aspect of the tropical annual cycle in most coupled climate models is the presence of a double ITCZ instead of a single north-shifted one. Even though this appears to be unrelated to (albeit influenced by) the changes in ocean color, our model exhibits a much improved

Assessing the inter- and intra-animal variability of in vivo OsteoProbe skeletal measures in untreated dogs

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Erin M.B. McNerny

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The OsteoProbe is a second-generation reference point indentation (RPI device without a reference probe that is designed to simplify RPI testing for clinical use. Successful clinical implementation of the OsteoProbe would benefit from a better understanding of how its output, bone material strength index (BMSi, relates to the material properties of bone and under what conditions it reliably correlates with fracture risk. Large animal models have the potential to help fill this knowledge gap, as cadaveric studies are retrospective and limited by incomplete patient histories (including the potential use of bone matrix altering drugs such as bisphosphonates. The goal of this study was to assess the intra and inter-animal variability of OsteoProbe measures in untreated beagle dogs (n = 12, and to evaluate this variability in comparison to traditional mechanical testing. OsteoProbe measurements were performed in vivo on the left tibia of each dog and repeated 6 months later on the day of sacrifice. Within-animal variation of BMSi (CV of 5–10 indents averaged 8.9 and 9.0% at the first and second timepoints, respectively. In contrast, inter-animal variation of BMSi increased from 5.3% to 9.1%. The group variation of BMSi was on par with that of traditional 3-point mechanical testing; inter-animal variation was 10% for ultimate force, 13% for stiffness, and 12% for total work as measured on the femur. There was no significant change in mean BMSi after 6 months, but the individual change with time across the 12 dogs was highly variable, ranging from −12.4% to +21.7% (mean 1.6%, SD 10.6%. No significant correlations were found between in vivo tibia BMSi and femur mechanical properties measured by ex vivo 3-pt bending, but this may be a limitation of sample size or the tests being performed on different bones. No relationship was found between BMSi and tissue mineral density, but a strong positive correlation was found between BMSi and tibia

Contrasting effects of temperature and winter mixing on the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the carbonate system in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Dumousseaud

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Future climate change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations is expected to strongly affect the oceans, with shallower winter mixing and consequent reduction in primary production and oceanic carbon drawdown in low and mid-latitudinal oceanic regions. Here we test this hypothesis by examining the effects of cold and warm winters on the carbonate system in the surface waters of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean for the period between 2005 and 2007. Monthly observations were made between the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay using a ship of opportunity program. During the colder winter of 2005/2006, the maximum depth of the mixed layer reached up to 650 m in the Bay of Biscay, whilst during the warmer (by 2.6 ± 0.5 °C winter of 2006/2007 the mixed layer depth reached only 300 m. The inter-annual differences in late winter concentrations of nitrate (2.8 ± 1.1 μmol l⁻¹ and dissolved inorganic carbon (22 ± 6 μmol kg⁻¹, with higher concentrations at the end of the colder winter (2005/2006, led to differences in the dissolved oxygen anomaly and the chlorophyll α-fluorescence data for the subsequent growing season. In contrast to model predictions, the calculated air-sea CO₂ fluxes (ranging from +3.7 to −4.8 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ showed an increased oceanic CO₂ uptake in the Bay of Biscay following the warmer winter of 2006/2007 associated with wind speed and sea surface temperature differences.

Definition of gross tumor volume in lung cancer: inter-observer variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van de Steene, Jan; Linthout, Nadine; Mey, Johan de; Vinh-Hung, Vincent; Claassens, Cornelia; Noppen, Marc; Bel, Arjan; Storme, Guy

2002-01-01

Background and purpose: To determine the inter-observer variation in gross tumor volume (GTV) definition in lung cancer, and its clinical relevance. Material and methods: Five clinicians involved in lung cancer were asked to define GTV on the planning CT scan of eight patients. Resulting GTVs were compared on the base of geometric volume, dimensions and extensions. Judgement of invasion of lymph node (LN) regions was evaluated using the ATS/LCSG classification of LN. Clinical relevance of the variation was studied through 3D-dosimetry of standard conformal plans: volume of critical organs (heart, lungs, esophagus, spinal cord) irradiated at toxic doses, 95% isodose volumes of GTVs, normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) and tumor control probabilities (TCP) were compared for evaluation of observer variability. Results: Before evaluation of observer variability, critical review of planning CT scan led to up- (two cases) and downstaging (one case) of patients as compared to the respective diagnostic scans. The defined GTVs showed an inter-observer variation with a ratio up to more than 7 between maximum and minimum geometric content. The dimensions of the primary tumor had inter-observer ranges of 4.2 (transversal), 7.9 (cranio-caudal) and 5.4 (antero-posterior) cm. Extreme extensions of the GTVs (left, right, cranial, caudal, anterior and posterior) varied with ranges of 2.8-7.3 cm due to inter-observer variation. After common review, only 63% of involved lymph node regions were delineated by the clinicians (i.e. 37% are false negative). Twenty-two percent of drawn in lymph node regions were accepted to be false positive after review. In the conformal plans, inter-observer ranges of irradiated normal tissue volume were on average 12%, with a maximum of 66%. The probability (in the population of all conformal plans) of irradiating at least 95% of the GTV with at least 95% of the nominal treatment dose decreased from 96 to 88% when swapping the matched GTV

Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-01-01

The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can

ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

2016-06-01

Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-12-01

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

Spatial and temporal variability of winds in the Northern European Seas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karagali, Ioanna; Badger, Merete; Hahmann, Andrea N.

2013-01-01

the spatial and temporal variability of the near-surface wind field, including the inter- and intra-annual variability for resource assessment purposes. This study demonstrates the applicability of satellite observations as the means to provide information useful for selecting areas to perform higher...

SU-E-J-266: Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) Inter-Scan and Inter-Observer Tumor Volume Variability Assessment in Patients Treated with Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for Early Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hou, Y; Aileen, C; Kozono, D; Killoran, J; Wagar, M; Lee, S; Hacker, F; Aerts, H; Lewis, J; Mak, R [Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA (United States)

2015-06-15

Purpose: Quantification of volume changes on CBCT during SBRT for NSCLC may provide a useful radiological marker for radiation response and adaptive treatment planning, but the reproducibility of CBCT volume delineation is a concern. This study is to quantify inter-scan/inter-observer variability in tumor volume delineation on CBCT. Methods: Twenty earlystage (stage I and II) NSCLC patients were included in this analysis. All patients were treated with SBRT with a median dose of 54 Gy in 3 to 5 fractions. Two physicians independently manually contoured the primary gross tumor volume on CBCTs taken immediately before SBRT treatment (Pre) and after the same SBRT treatment (Post). Absolute volume differences (AVD) were calculated between the Pre and Post CBCTs for a given treatment to quantify inter-scan variability, and then between the two observers for a given CBCT to quantify inter-observer variability. AVD was also normalized with respect to average volume to obtain relative volume differences (RVD). Bland-Altman approach was used to evaluate variability. All statistics were calculated with SAS version 9.4. Results: The 95% limit of agreement (mean ± 2SD) on AVD and RVD measurements between Pre and Post scans were −0.32cc to 0.32cc and −0.5% to 0.5% versus −1.9 cc to 1.8 cc and −15.9% to 15.3% for the two observers respectively. The 95% limit of agreement of AVD and RVD between the two observers were −3.3 cc to 2.3 cc and −42.4% to 28.2% respectively. The greatest variability in inter-scan RVD was observed with very small tumors (< 5 cc). Conclusion: Inter-scan variability in RVD is greatest with small tumors. Inter-observer variability was larger than inter-scan variability. The 95% limit of agreement for inter-observer and inter-scan variability (∼15–30%) helps define a threshold for clinically meaningful change in tumor volume to assess SBRT response, with larger thresholds needed for very small tumors. Part of the work was funded by a Kaye

SU-E-J-266: Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) Inter-Scan and Inter-Observer Tumor Volume Variability Assessment in Patients Treated with Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) for Early Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hou, Y; Aileen, C; Kozono, D; Killoran, J; Wagar, M; Lee, S; Hacker, F; Aerts, H; Lewis, J; Mak, R

2015-01-01

Purpose: Quantification of volume changes on CBCT during SBRT for NSCLC may provide a useful radiological marker for radiation response and adaptive treatment planning, but the reproducibility of CBCT volume delineation is a concern. This study is to quantify inter-scan/inter-observer variability in tumor volume delineation on CBCT. Methods: Twenty earlystage (stage I and II) NSCLC patients were included in this analysis. All patients were treated with SBRT with a median dose of 54 Gy in 3 to 5 fractions. Two physicians independently manually contoured the primary gross tumor volume on CBCTs taken immediately before SBRT treatment (Pre) and after the same SBRT treatment (Post). Absolute volume differences (AVD) were calculated between the Pre and Post CBCTs for a given treatment to quantify inter-scan variability, and then between the two observers for a given CBCT to quantify inter-observer variability. AVD was also normalized with respect to average volume to obtain relative volume differences (RVD). Bland-Altman approach was used to evaluate variability. All statistics were calculated with SAS version 9.4. Results: The 95% limit of agreement (mean ± 2SD) on AVD and RVD measurements between Pre and Post scans were −0.32cc to 0.32cc and −0.5% to 0.5% versus −1.9 cc to 1.8 cc and −15.9% to 15.3% for the two observers respectively. The 95% limit of agreement of AVD and RVD between the two observers were −3.3 cc to 2.3 cc and −42.4% to 28.2% respectively. The greatest variability in inter-scan RVD was observed with very small tumors (< 5 cc). Conclusion: Inter-scan variability in RVD is greatest with small tumors. Inter-observer variability was larger than inter-scan variability. The 95% limit of agreement for inter-observer and inter-scan variability (∼15–30%) helps define a threshold for clinically meaningful change in tumor volume to assess SBRT response, with larger thresholds needed for very small tumors. Part of the work was funded by a Kaye

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

Development from childhood to adulthood increases morphological and functional inter-individual variability in the right superior temporal cortex.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonte, Milene; Frost, Martin A; Rutten, Sanne; Ley, Anke; Formisano, Elia; Goebel, Rainer

2013-12-01

We study the developmental trajectory of morphology and function of the superior temporal cortex (STC) in children (8-9 years), adolescents (14-15 years) and young adults. We analyze cortical surface landmarks and functional MRI (fMRI) responses to voices, other natural categories and tones and examine how hemispheric asymmetry and inter-subject variability change across age. Our results show stable morphological asymmetries across age groups, including a larger left planum temporale and a deeper right superior temporal sulcus. fMRI analyses show that a rightward lateralization for voice-selective responses is present in all groups but decreases with age. Furthermore, STC responses to voices change from being less selective and more spatially diffuse in children to highly selective and focal in adults. Interestingly, the analysis of morphological landmarks reveals that inter-subject variability increases during development in the right--but not in the left--STC. Similarly, inter-subject variability of cortically-realigned functional responses to voices, other categories and tones increases with age in the right STC. Our findings reveal asymmetric developmental changes in brain regions crucial for auditory and voice perception. The age-related increase of inter-subject variability in right STC suggests that anatomy and function of this region are shaped by unique individual developmental experiences. © 2013.

Three-dimensional Mass Measurement of Subsolid Pulmonary Nodules on Chest CT: Intra and Inter-observer Variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiting LIU

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Background and objective Subsolid pulmonary nodules tend to exhibit considerably slower growth rates than solid lesions, nevertheless, higher malignancy probability. The diagnosis of indeterminate nodules largely depends on the growth evaluation during follow-up. The growth can manifested as an increase in size or the appearance and/or subsequent increase of solid components. The mass reflect the product of volume and density and can be more sensitive in growth evaluation. However, the repeatability needs a further validation. The purpose of this study is to assess the intra and inter-observer variability of mass measurement for subsolid nodules. Methods 80 subsolid nodules in 44 patients were retrospectively enrolled. Both the volume and mass were measured by two radiologists using blind method independently. Intra-observer and inter-observer variability were analyzed and compared by Bland-Altman method intra-class correlation test and Wilcoxon test. Results Software achieved satisfied segmentation for 92.5% nodules. Of them, 35% underwent manual modification. The 95% limits of agreement for intra-observer variability were -11.5%-10.4% for mass and -8.4%-8.8% for volume. The 95% limits of agreement for inter-observer variability were -17.4%-19.3% for mass and -17.9%-19.4% for volume.The intra-class correlation foefficients between volume and mass measument was 0.95 and 0.93 (both P<0.001 and no significant differences (P=0.78, 0.09 was found for intra- and inter-observer variability. Manual modification of the segmentation caused the worse mass measurement repeatability in spite of the reader satisfaction. Conclusion The repeatability of mass measurement has no significant difference with that of volume measurement and may act as a reliable method in the follow-up of subsolid nodules.

The influence of riparian woodland on the spatial and temporal variability of stream water temperatures in an upland salmon stream

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. A. Malcolm

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The spatio-temporal variability of stream water temperatures was investigated at six locations on the Girnock Burn (30km2 catchment, Cairngorms, Scotland over three hydrological years between 1998 and 2002. The key site-specific factors affecting the hydrology and climatology of the sampling points were investigated as a basis for physical process inference. Particular emphasis was placed on assessing the effects of riparian forest in the lower catchment versus the heather moorland riparian zones that are spatially dominant in the upper catchment. The findings were related to river heat budget studies that provided process detail. Gross changes in stream temperature were affected by the annual cycle of incoming solar radiation and seasonal changes in hydrological and climatological conditions. Inter-annual variation in these controlling variables resulted in inter-annual variability in thermal regime. However, more subtle inter-site differences reflected the impact of site-specific characteristics on various components of the river energy budget. Inter-site variability was most apparent at shorter time scales, during the summer months and for higher stream temperatures. Riparian woodland in the lower catchment had a substantial impact on thermal regime, reducing diel variability (over a period of 24 hours and temperature extremes. Observed inter-site differences are likely to have a substantial effect on freshwater ecology in general and salmonid fish in particular. Keywords: temperature, thermal regime, forest, salmon, hydrology, Girnock Burn, Cairngorm

Breast cancer MRI radiomics: An overview of algorithmic features and impact of inter-reader variability in annotating tumors.

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Ashirbani; Harowicz, Michael R; Mazurowski, Maciej A

2018-04-16

To review features used in MRI radiomics of breast cancer and study the inter-reader stability of the features METHODS: We implemented 529 algorithmic features that can be extracted from tumor and fibroglandular tissue (FGT) in breast MRIs. The features were identified based on a review of the existing literature with consideration of their usage, prognostic ability, and uniqueness. The set was then extended so that it comprehensively describes breast cancer imaging characteristics. The features were classified into 10 groups based on the type of data used to extract them and the type of calculation being performed. For the assessment of inter-reader variability, 4 fellowship-trained readers annotated tumors on pre-operative dynamic contrast enhanced MRIs for 50 breast cancer patients. Based on the annotations, an algorithm automatically segmented the image and extracted all features resulting in one set of features for each reader. For a given feature, the inter-reader stability was defined as the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) computed using the feature values obtained through all readers for all cases. The average inter-reader stability for all features was 0.8474 (95% CI: 0.8068-0.8858). The mean inter-reader stability was lower for tumor-based features (0.6348, 95% CI: 0.5391-0.7257) than FGT-based features (0.9984, 95% CI: 0.9970-0.9992). The feature group with the highest inter-reader stability quantifies breast and FGT volume. The feature group with the lowest inter-reader stability quantifies variations in tumor enhancement. Breast MRI radiomics features widely vary in terms of their stability in the presence of inter-reader variability. Appropriate measures need to be taken for reducing this variability in tumor-based radiomics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Dominant role of plant physiology in trend and variability of gross primary productivity in North America

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Sha; Zhang, Yao; Ciais, Philippe; Xiao, Xiangming; Luo, Yiqi; Caylor, Kelly K.; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

2017-02-01

Annual gross primary productivity (GPP) varies considerably due to climate-induced changes in plant phenology and physiology. However, the relative importance of plant phenology and physiology on annual GPP variation is not clear. In this study, a Statistical Model of Integrated Phenology and Physiology (SMIPP) was used to evaluate the relative contributions of maximum daily GPP (GPPmax) and the start and end of growing season (GSstart and GSend) to annual GPP variability, using a regional GPP product in North America during 2000-2014 and GPP data from 24 AmeriFlux sites. Climatic sensitivity of the three indicators was assessed to investigate the climate impacts on plant phenology and physiology. The SMIPP can explain 98% of inter-annual variability of GPP over mid- and high latitudes in North America. The long-term trend and inter-annual variability of GPP are dominated by GPPmax both at the ecosystem and regional scales. During warmer spring and autumn, GSstart is advanced and GSend delayed, respectively. GPPmax responds positively to summer temperature over high latitudes (40-80°N), but negatively in mid-latitudes (25-40°N). This study demonstrates that plant physiology, rather than phenology, plays a dominant role in annual GPP variability, indicating more attention should be paid to physiological change under futher climate change.

Endotracheal temperature and humidity measurements in laryngectomized patients: intra- and inter-patient variability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scheenstra, R.J.; Muller, S.H.; Vincent, A.; Sinaasappel, M.; Zuur, J.K.; Hilgers, F.J.M.

2009-01-01

This study assesses intra- and inter-patient variability in endotracheal climate (temperature and humidity) and effects of heat and moister exchangers (HME) in 16 laryngectomized individuals, measured repeatedly (N = 47). Inhalation Breath Length (IBL) was 1.35 s without HME and 1.05 s with HME (P <

Endotracheal temperature and humidity measurements in laryngectomized patients: intra- and inter-patient variability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scheenstra, R. J.; Muller, S. H.; Vincent, A.; Sinaasappel, M.; Zuur, J. K.; Hilgers, Frans J. M.

2009-01-01

This study assesses intra- and inter-patient variability in endotracheal climate (temperature and humidity) and effects of heat and moister exchangers (HME) in 16 laryngectomized individuals, measured repeatedly (N = 47). Inhalation Breath Length (IBL) was 1.35 s without HME and 1.05 s with HME (P

Climate Variability and Yields of Major Staple Food Crops in Northern Ghana

Science.gov (United States)

Amikuzuno, J.

2012-12-01

Climate variability, the short-term fluctuations in average weather conditions, and agriculture affect each other. Climate variability affects the agroecological and growing conditions of crops and livestock, and is recently believed to be the greatest impediment to the realisation of the first Millennium Development Goal of reducing poverty and food insecurity in arid and semi-arid regions of developing countries. Conversely, agriculture is a major contributor to climate variability and change by emitting greenhouse gases and reducing the agroecology's potential for carbon sequestration. What however, is the empirical evidence of this inter-dependence of climate variability and agriculture in Sub-Sahara Africa? In this paper, we provide some insight into the long run relationship between inter-annual variations in temperature and rainfall, and annual yields of the most important staple food crops in Northern Ghana. Applying pooled panel data of rainfall, temperature and yields of the selected crops from 1976 to 2010 to cointegration and Granger causality models, there is cogent evidence of cointegration between seasonal, total rainfall and crop yields; and causality from rainfall to crop yields in the Sudano-Guinea Savannah and Guinea Savannah zones of Northern Ghana. This suggests that inter-annual yields of the crops have been influenced by the total mounts of rainfall in the planting season. Temperature variability over the study period is however stationary, and is suspected to have minimal effect if any on crop yields. Overall, the results confirm the appropriateness of our attempt in modelling long-term relationships between the climate and crop yield variables.

Inter-annual sea level variability in the southern South China Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

(SCS) is one of the western marginal seas of the Pacific Ocean, surrounded by South China, Indo China Peninsula, Malaysian Peninsula, Philippines and Borneo Island. The SCS is a semi- enclosed basin connected to the western Pacific Ocean through Taiwan.... Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait. Ocean Science, 9(2). Torrence, C. and Compo, G.P., 1998. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(1): 61-78. Vargas‐Hernandez, J.M., Wijffels...

Inter- and intra-population genetic variability of introduced silkworm (Bombyx mori L. strains raised in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teodora Staykova

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The genetic variability of four populations belonging to two introduced silkworm strains (Bombyx mori L. of various origins has been studied using isoenzymic analysis of six enzyme systems. Nonspecific esterases, phosphoglucomutase, malate dehydrogenase, acid phosphatase, alkaline phosphatase and hexokinase from different tissue of larvae 5th instar have been analysed using PAGE. Polymorphism in six from a total of nine loci has been found. Inter- and intra-population differences have been ascertained expressed in different allele composition of the gene pool and different frequencies of alleles. A higher degree of inter-population variability has been reported on the acid phosphatase and a lower one – on the phosphoglucomutase.

Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

2018-06-01

The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

Inter- and intra-strain variability of tandem repeats in Mycoplasma pneumoniae based on next-generation sequencing data.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jing; Song, Xiaohong; Ma, Marella J; Xiao, Li; Kenri, Tsuyoshi; Sun, Hongmei; Ptacek, Travis; Li, Shaoli; Waites, Ken B; Atkinson, T Prescott; Shibayama, Keigo; Dybvig, Kevin; Feng, Yanmei

2017-02-01

To characterize inter- and intra-strain variability of variable-number tandem repeats (VNTRs) in Mycoplasma pneumoniae to determine the optimal multilocus VNTR analysis scheme for improved strain typing. Whole genome assemblies and next-generation sequencing data from diverse M. pneumoniae isolates were used to characterize VNTRs and their variability, and to compare the strain discriminability of new VNTR and existing markers. We identified 13 VNTRs including five reported previously. These VNTRs displayed different levels of inter- and intra-strain copy number variations. All new markers showed similar or higher discriminability compared with existing VNTR markers and the P1 typing system. Our study provides novel insights into VNTR variations and potential new multilocus VNTR analysis schemes for improved genotyping of M. pneumoniae.

Seasonal and inter-annual variations of leaf-level photosynthesis and soil respiration in the representative ecosystems of the Okavango Delta, Botswana

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mantlana, K.B.

2008-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual leaf-level photosynthesis and soil respiration measurements were conducted in representative ecosystems of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, that differ in their long-term soil water content: the permanent swamp, the seasonal floodplain, the rain-fed grassland and the mopane

Quantifying inter-laboratory variability in stable isotope analysis of ancient skeletal remains.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William J Pestle

Full Text Available Over the past forty years, stable isotope analysis of bone (and tooth collagen and hydroxyapatite has become a mainstay of archaeological and paleoanthropological reconstructions of paleodiet and paleoenvironment. Despite this method's frequent use across anthropological subdisciplines (and beyond, the present work represents the first attempt at gauging the effects of inter-laboratory variability engendered by differences in a sample preparation, and b analysis (instrumentation, working standards, and data calibration. Replicate analyses of a 14C-dated ancient human bone by twenty-one archaeological and paleoecological stable isotope laboratories revealed significant inter-laboratory isotopic variation for both collagen and carbonate. For bone collagen, we found a sizeable range of 1.8‰ for δ13Ccol and 1.9‰ for δ15Ncol among laboratories, but an interpretatively insignificant average pairwise difference of 0.2‰ and 0.4‰ for δ13Ccol and δ15Ncol respectively. For bone hydroxyapatite the observed range increased to a troublingly large 3.5‰ for δ13Cap and 6.7‰ for δ18Oap, with average pairwise differences of 0.6‰ for δ13Cap and a disquieting 2.0‰ for δ18Oap. In order to assess the effects of preparation versus analysis on isotopic variability among laboratories, a subset of the samples prepared by the participating laboratories were analyzed a second time on the same instrument. Based on this duplicate analysis, it was determined that roughly half of the isotopic variability among laboratories could be attributed to differences in sample preparation, with the other half resulting from differences in analysis (instrumentation, working standards, and data calibration. These findings have serious implications for choices made in the preparation and extraction of target biomolecules, the comparison of results obtained from different laboratories, and the interpretation of small differences in bone collagen and hydroxyapatite

Quantifying inter-laboratory variability in stable isotope analysis of ancient skeletal remains.

Science.gov (United States)

Pestle, William J; Crowley, Brooke E; Weirauch, Matthew T

2014-01-01

Over the past forty years, stable isotope analysis of bone (and tooth) collagen and hydroxyapatite has become a mainstay of archaeological and paleoanthropological reconstructions of paleodiet and paleoenvironment. Despite this method's frequent use across anthropological subdisciplines (and beyond), the present work represents the first attempt at gauging the effects of inter-laboratory variability engendered by differences in a) sample preparation, and b) analysis (instrumentation, working standards, and data calibration). Replicate analyses of a 14C-dated ancient human bone by twenty-one archaeological and paleoecological stable isotope laboratories revealed significant inter-laboratory isotopic variation for both collagen and carbonate. For bone collagen, we found a sizeable range of 1.8‰ for δ13Ccol and 1.9‰ for δ15Ncol among laboratories, but an interpretatively insignificant average pairwise difference of 0.2‰ and 0.4‰ for δ13Ccol and δ15Ncol respectively. For bone hydroxyapatite the observed range increased to a troublingly large 3.5‰ for δ13Cap and 6.7‰ for δ18Oap, with average pairwise differences of 0.6‰ for δ13Cap and a disquieting 2.0‰ for δ18Oap. In order to assess the effects of preparation versus analysis on isotopic variability among laboratories, a subset of the samples prepared by the participating laboratories were analyzed a second time on the same instrument. Based on this duplicate analysis, it was determined that roughly half of the isotopic variability among laboratories could be attributed to differences in sample preparation, with the other half resulting from differences in analysis (instrumentation, working standards, and data calibration). These findings have serious implications for choices made in the preparation and extraction of target biomolecules, the comparison of results obtained from different laboratories, and the interpretation of small differences in bone collagen and hydroxyapatite isotope values

Minimizing inter-microscope variability in dental microwear texture analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Arman, Samuel D.; Ungar, Peter S.; Brown, Christopher A.; DeSantis, Larisa R. G.; Schmidt, Christopher; Prideaux, Gavin J.

2016-06-01

A common approach to dental microwear texture analysis (DMTA) uses confocal profilometry in concert with scale-sensitive fractal analysis to help understand the diets of extinct mammals. One of the main benefits of DMTA over other methods is the repeatable, objective manner of data collection. This repeatability, however, is threatened by variation in results of DMTA of the same dental surfaces yielded by different microscopes. Here we compare DMTA data of five species of kangaroos measured on seven profilers of varying specifications. Comparison between microscopes confirms that inter-microscope differences are present, but we show that deployment of a number of automated treatments to remove measurement noise can help minimize inter-microscope differences. Applying these same treatments to a published hominin DMTA dataset shows that they alter some significant differences between dietary groups. Minimising microscope variability while maintaining interspecific dietary differences requires then that these factors are balanced in determining appropriate treatments. The process outlined here offers a solution for allowing comparison of data between microscopes, which is essential for ongoing DMTA research. In addition, the process undertaken, including considerations of other elements of DMTA protocols also promises to streamline methodology, remove measurement noise and in doing so, optimize recovery of a reliable dietary signature.

Dynamic inter-relationship between trade, economic growth and tourism in Malaysia

OpenAIRE

Sarmidi, Tamat; Salleh, Norlida H

2010-01-01

This study aims to test a hypothesis that postulate a positive inter-relationship between international flows of tourist, trade and economic growth. Although tourism is one of the major components in the trade of services, and it has been certified by large number of literatures on the strong correlation between tourism industry and economic development, yet not much is known on the dynamic inter-relationship between these three variables. Closing-up this gaping hole, this study employs the c...

Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

2014-01-01

Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Allyson L Carroll

Full Text Available Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood

Three-dimensional echocardiography: assessment of inter- and intra-operator variability and accuracy in the measurement of left ventricular cavity volume and myocardial mass

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nadkarni, S.K.; Drangova, M.; Boughner, D.R.; Fenster, A.; Department of Medical Biophysics, Medical Sciences Building, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 5C1

2000-01-01

Accurate left ventricular (LV) volume and mass estimation is a strong predictor of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. We propose that our technique of 3D echocardiography provides an accurate quantification of LV volume and mass by the reconstruction of 2D images into 3D volumes, thus avoiding the need for geometric assumptions. We compared the accuracy and variability in LV volume and mass measurement using 3D echocardiography with 2D echocardiography, using in vitro studies. Six operators measured the LV volume and mass of seven porcine hearts, using both 3D and 2D techniques. Regression analysis was used to test the accuracy of results and an ANOVA test was used to compute variability in measurement. LV volume measurement accuracy was 9.8% (3D) and 18.4% (2D); LV mass measurement accuracy was 5% (3D) and 9.2% (2D). Variability in LV volume quantification with 3D echocardiography was %SEM inter = 13.5%, %SEM intra = 11.4%, and for 2D echocardiography was %SEM inter = 21.5%, %SEM intra = 19.1%. We derived an equation to predict uncertainty in measurement of LV volume and mass using 3D echocardiography, the results of which agreed with our experimental results to within 13%. 3D echocardiography provided twice the accuracy for LV volume and mass measurement and half the variability for LV volume measurement as compared with 2D echocardiography. (author)

Seasonal and annual variability of coastal sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Ohde

Full Text Available We investigated the seasonal and annual variability of surface sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system off Namibia because of their significant impacts on the marine ecosystem, fishing industry, aquaculture farming and tourism due to their toxic properties. We identified the sulphur plumes in ocean colour satellite data of the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS for the 2002-2012 time period using the differences in the spectral properties of Namibian Benguela optical water types. The sulphur events have a strong seasonal cycle with pronounced main and off-seasons forced by local and remote-driven processes. The main peak season is in late austral summer and early austral autumn at the beginning of the annual upwelling cycle caused by increasing equatorwards alongshore winds. The sulphur plume activity is high between February and April during the seasonal oxygen minimum associated with the seasonal reduction of cross-shore ventilation of the bottom waters, the seasonal southernmost position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, the seasonal maximum of water mass fractions of South Atlantic and Angola Gyre Central Waters as well as the seasonal arrival of the downwelling coastal trapped waves. The off-season is in austral spring and early austral summer during increased upwelling intensity and enhanced oxygen supply. The annual variability of sulphur events is characterized by very high activities in years 2004, 2005 and 2010 interrupted by periods of lower activity in years 2002 to 2003, 2006 to 2009 and 2011 to 2012. This result can be explained by the relative contributions or adding effects of local and remote-driven forces (from the equatorial area. The probability for the occurrence of sulphur plumes is enhanced in years with a lower annual mean of upwelling intensity, decreased oxygen supply associated with decreased lateral ventilation of bottom waters, more southern position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone

Seasonal and annual variability of coastal sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohde, Thomas; Dadou, Isabelle

2018-01-01

We investigated the seasonal and annual variability of surface sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system off Namibia because of their significant impacts on the marine ecosystem, fishing industry, aquaculture farming and tourism due to their toxic properties. We identified the sulphur plumes in ocean colour satellite data of the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) for the 2002-2012 time period using the differences in the spectral properties of Namibian Benguela optical water types. The sulphur events have a strong seasonal cycle with pronounced main and off-seasons forced by local and remote-driven processes. The main peak season is in late austral summer and early austral autumn at the beginning of the annual upwelling cycle caused by increasing equatorwards alongshore winds. The sulphur plume activity is high between February and April during the seasonal oxygen minimum associated with the seasonal reduction of cross-shore ventilation of the bottom waters, the seasonal southernmost position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, the seasonal maximum of water mass fractions of South Atlantic and Angola Gyre Central Waters as well as the seasonal arrival of the downwelling coastal trapped waves. The off-season is in austral spring and early austral summer during increased upwelling intensity and enhanced oxygen supply. The annual variability of sulphur events is characterized by very high activities in years 2004, 2005 and 2010 interrupted by periods of lower activity in years 2002 to 2003, 2006 to 2009 and 2011 to 2012. This result can be explained by the relative contributions or adding effects of local and remote-driven forces (from the equatorial area). The probability for the occurrence of sulphur plumes is enhanced in years with a lower annual mean of upwelling intensity, decreased oxygen supply associated with decreased lateral ventilation of bottom waters, more southern position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, increased mass

On the fog variability over south Asia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Syed, F.S. [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm (Sweden); Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad (Pakistan); Koernich, H.; Tjernstroem, M. [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, The Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm (Sweden)

2012-12-15

An increasing trend in fog frequencies over south Asia during winter in the last few decades has resulted in large economical losses and has caused substantial difficulties in the daily lives of people. In order to better understand the fog phenomenon, we investigated the climatology, inter-annual variability and trends in the fog occurrence from 1976 to 2010 using observational data from 82 stations, well distributed over India and Pakistan. Fog blankets large area from Pakistan to Bangladesh across north India from west to east running almost parallel to south of the Himalayas. An EOF analysis revealed that the fog variability over the whole region is coupled and therefore must be governed by some large scale phenomenon on the inter-annual time scale. Significant positive trends were found in the fog frequency but this increase is not gradual, as with the humidity, but comprises of two distinct regimes shifts, in 1990 and 1998, with respect to both mean and variance. The fog is also detected in ERA-Interim 3 hourly, surface and model level forecast data when using the concept of ''cross-over temperature'' combined with boundary layer stability. This fog index is able to reproduce the regime shift around 1998 and shows that the method can be applied to analyze fog over south Asia. The inter-annual variability seems to be associated with the wave train originating from the North Atlantic in the upper troposphere that when causing higher pressure over the region results in an increased boundary layer stability and surface-near relative humidity. The trend and shifts in the fog occurrence seems to be associated with the gradual increasing trend in relative humidity from 1990 onwards. (orig.)

Determinants of Inter-Country Internet Diffusion Rates

OpenAIRE

Wunnava, Phanindra V.; Leiter, Daniel B.

2008-01-01

This paper employs cross-sectional data from 100 countries to analyze the main determinants of inter-country Internet diffusion rates. We set up an empirical model based on strong theoretical foundations, in which we regress Internet usage on variables that capture social, economic and political differences between these countries. Our results support past findings that economic strength, infrastructure and knowledge of the English language positively affect Internet connectivity. In addition...

Wind resource in metropolitan France: assessment methods, variability and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jourdier, Benedicte

2015-01-01

France has one of the largest wind potentials in Europe, yet far from being fully exploited. The wind resource and energy yield assessment is a key step before building a wind farm, aiming at predicting the future electricity production. Any over-estimation in the assessment process puts in jeopardy the project's profitability. This has been the case in the recent years, when wind farm managers have noticed that they produced less than expected. The under-production problem leads to questioning both the validity of the assessment methods and the inter-annual wind variability. This thesis tackles these two issues. In a first part are investigated the errors linked to the assessment methods, especially in two steps: the vertical extrapolation of wind measurements and the statistical modelling of wind-speed data by a Weibull distribution. The second part investigates the inter-annual to decadal variability of wind speeds, in order to understand how this variability may have contributed to the under-production and so that it is better taken into account in the future. (author) [fr

Intra-session and inter-session variability of nitric oxide pulmonary diffusing capacity in adults with cystic fibrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Radtke, Thomas; Benden, Christian; Maggi-Beba, Marion; Kriemler, Susi; van der Lee, Ivo; Dressel, Holger

2017-12-01

We evaluated the intra-session and inter-session variability of the diffusing capacity of nitric oxide (DLNO), carbon monoxide (DLCO), alveolar-capillary membrane diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DMCO) and pulmonary capillary blood volume (Vc) in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). Patients performed single-breath diffusing capacity measurements during all of 3 consecutive study visits. Precision of gas diffusing parameters was quantified by within-subject standard deviation (SD ws ) and coefficient of variation (CV). Intra-session and inter-session reproducibility was determined by SD ws *2.77. 15 clinically stable patients were included. The intra-session precision of gas diffusing parameters improved over the study visits. The inter-session SD ws for DLNO, DLCO, DMCO, and Vc was 4.8, 1.3, 2.4, and 4.3, respectively. Reproducibility was 13.3, 3.8, 6.7 and 12.0mLmin -1 mmHg -1 ; CV was 4.4, 4.7, 4.4 and 5.8%, respectively. The intra-session variability of DLNO, DLCO, DMCO and Vc improves with breath-hold maneuver training in test-naïve patients with CF, indicating a learning effect. Inter-session reproducibility data are lower than those previously reported in healthy subjects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inter-model variability and biases of the global water cycle in CMIP3 coupled climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liepert, Beate G; Previdi, Michael

2012-01-01

Observed changes such as increasing global temperatures and the intensification of the global water cycle in the 20th century are robust results of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In spite of these successes, model-to-model variability and biases that are small in first order climate responses, however, have considerable implications for climate predictability especially when multi-model means are used. We show that most climate simulations of the 20th and 21st century A2 scenario performed with CMIP3 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3) models have deficiencies in simulating the global atmospheric moisture balance. Large biases of only a few models (some biases reach the simulated global precipitation changes in the 20th and 21st centuries) affect the multi-model mean global moisture budget. An imbalanced flux of −0.14 Sv exists while the multi-model median imbalance is only −0.02 Sv. Moreover, for most models the detected imbalance changes over time. As a consequence, in 13 of the 18 CMIP3 models examined, global annual mean precipitation exceeds global evaporation, indicating that there should be a ‘leaking’ of moisture from the atmosphere whereas for the remaining five models a ‘flooding’ is implied. Nonetheless, in all models, the actual atmospheric moisture content and its variability correctly increases during the course of the 20th and 21st centuries. These discrepancies therefore imply an unphysical and hence ‘ghost’ sink/source of atmospheric moisture in the models whose atmospheres flood/leak. The ghost source/sink of moisture can also be regarded as atmospheric latent heating/cooling and hence as positive/negative perturbation of the atmospheric energy budget or non-radiative forcing in the range of −1 to +6 W m −2 (median +0.1 W m −2 ). The inter-model variability of the global atmospheric moisture transport from oceans to land areas, which impacts the terrestrial water cycle, is also quite high and ranges

Thyroid Ultrasound: Change of Inter-observer Variability and Diagnostic Performance after Training

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, Hee Jung; Kim, Eun Kyung; Kwak, Jin Young; Park, Jeong Seon

2011-01-01

To investigate and compare inter-observer variability and diagnostic performance of thyroid ultrasound (US) between a faculty member and observing residents. From October 2007 to June 2009, 18 residents underwent training in thyroid US section. Group 1 included 8 residents that were trained for the first time and group 2 included 10 residents that were trained for the second time. US features of nodules were recorded according to the composition, echogenicity, margin, calcifications, shape, and final assessment by a faculty member and residents, respectively. Following a discussion, a faculty member performed fine needle aspiration. Then, the inter-observer variability and diagnostic performance between a faculty member and residents were investigated and compared for US. In group 1, agreement for composition in resident 1, calcification for residents 5 and 6, and shape for resident 4 were slight, moderate, moderate, and moderate, respectively. In group 2, agreement for composition in residents 1 and 10 were moderate. Substantial or greater agreement was observed more frequently in group 2 than 1. The diagnostic performances for both the faculty and residents were high and not statistically different. Agreement for US features between a faculty and residents as well as diagnostic performance were high. Moreover, diagnostic performance of residents that underwent training a second time of training was higher than residents that underwent training only once

Magnetic resonance imaging for prostate bed radiotherapy planning: An inter- and intra-observer variability study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barkati, Maroie; Simard, Dany; Taussky, Daniel; Delouya, Guiula

2016-01-01

We assessed the inter- and intra-observer variability in contouring the prostate bed for radiation therapy planning using MRI compared with computed tomography (CT). We selected 15 patients with prior radical prostatectomy. All had CT and MRI simulation for planning purposes. Image fusions were done between CT and MRI. Three radiation oncologists with several years of experience in treating prostate cancer contoured the prostate bed first on CT and then on MRI. Before contouring, each radiation oncologist had to review the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group guidelines for postoperative external beam radiotherapy. The agreement between volumes was calculated using the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC). Analysis was done using the Matlab software. The DSC was compared using non-parametric statistical tests. Contouring on CT alone showed a statistically significant (P = 0.001) higher similarity between observers with a mean DSC of 0.76 (standard deviation ± 0.05) compared with contouring on MRI with a mean of 0.66 (standard deviation ± 0.05). Mean intra-observer variability between CT and MRI was 0.68, 0.75 and 0.78 for the three observers. The clinical target volume was 19 - 74% larger on CT than on MRI. The intra-observer difference in clinical target volume between CT and MRI was statistically significant in two observers and non-significant in the third one (P = 0.09). We found less inter-observer variability when contouring on CT than on MRI. Radiation Therapy Oncology Group contouring guidelines are based on anatomical landmarks readily visible on CT. These landmarks are more inter-observer dependent on MRI. Therefore, present contouring guidelines might not be applicable to MRI planning.

Stability of FDG-PET Radiomics features - An integrated analysis of test-retest and inter-observer variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leijenaar, Ralph T. H.; Carvalho, Sara; Rios Velazquez, Emmanuel [Dept. of Radiation Oncology (MAASTRO), GROW-School for Oncology and Developmental Biology, Maastricht Univ. Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands)] [and others

2013-10-15

Purpose: Besides basic measurements as maximum standardized uptake value (SUV){sub max} or SUV{sub mean} derived from 18F-FDG positron emission tomography (PET) scans, more advanced quantitative imaging features (i.e. 'Radiomics' features) are increasingly investigated for treatment monitoring, outcome prediction, or as potential biomarkers. With these prospected applications of Radiomics features, it is a requisite that they provide robust and reliable measurements. The aim of our study was therefore to perform an integrated stability analysis of a large number of PET-derived features in non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC), based on both a test-retest and an inter-observer setup. Methods: Eleven NSCLC patients were included in the test-retest cohort. Patients underwent repeated PET imaging within a one day interval, before any treatment was delivered. Lesions were delineated by applying a threshold of 50 % of the maximum uptake value within the tumor. Twenty-three NSCLC patients were included in the inter-observer cohort. Patients underwent a diagnostic whole body PET-computed tomography (CT). Lesions were manually delineated based on fused PET-CT, using a standardized clinical delineation protocol. Delineation was performed independently by five observers, blinded to each other. Fifteen first order statistics, 39 descriptors of intensity volume histograms, eight geometric features and 44 textural features were extracted. For every feature, test-retest and inter-observer stability was assessed with the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and the coefficient of variability, normalized to mean and range. Similarity between test-retest and inter-observer stability rankings of features was assessed with Spear man's rank correlation coefficient. Results: Results showed that the majority of assessed features had both a high test-retest (71%) and inter-observer (91%) stability in terms of their ICC. Overall, features more stable in repeated PET

[Inter-and intra-operator variability in the analysis of semen parameters: results from a quality control program].

Science.gov (United States)

Daoud, Salima; Chakroun-Feki, Nozha; Sellami, Afifa; Ammar-Keskes, Leila; Rebai, Tarek

2016-01-01

Semen analysis is a key part of male infertility investigation. The necessity of quality management implementation in the andrology laboratory has been recognized in order to ensure the reliability of its results. The aim of this study was to evaluate intra- and inter-individual variability in the assessment of semen parameters in our laboratory through a quality control programme. Four participants from the laboratory with different experience levels have participated in this study. Semen samples of varying quality were assessed for sperm motility, concentration and morphology and the results were used to evaluate inter-participant variability. In addition, replicates of each semen sample were analyzed to determine intra-individual variability for semen parameters analysis. The average values of inter-participant coefficients of variation for sperm motility, concentration and morphology were 12.8%, 19.8% and 48.9% respectively. The mean intra-participant coefficients of variation were, respectively, 6.9%, 12.3% and 42.7% for sperm motility, concentration and morphology. Despite some random errors of under- or overestimation, the overall results remained within the limits of acceptability for all participants. Sperm morphology assessment was particularly influenced by the participant's level of experience. The present data emphasize the need for appropriate training of the laboratory staff and for regular participation in internal quality control programmes in order to improve the reliability of laboratory results.

Anthropogenic radiative forcing of southern African and Southern Hemisphere climate variability and change

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Engelbrecht, FA

2014-10-01

Full Text Available of stratospheric ozone, greenhouse gasses, aerosols and sulphur dioxide, can improve the model's skill to simulate inter-annual variability over southern Africa. The paper secondly explores the role of different radiative forcings of future climate change over...

Why is seed production so variable among individuals? A ten-year study with oaks reveals the importance of soil environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M; Aponte, Cristina; García, Luis V; Padilla-Díaz, Carmen M; Marañón, Teodoro

2014-01-01

Mast-seeding species exhibit not only a large inter-annual variability in seed production but also considerable variability among individuals within the same year. However, very little is known about the causes and consequences for population dynamics of this potentially large between-individual variability. Here, we quantified seed production over ten consecutive years in two Mediterranean oak species - the deciduous Quercus canariensis and the evergreen Q. suber - that coexist in forests of southern Spain. First, we calibrated likelihood models to identify which abiotic and biotic variables best explain the magnitude (hereafter seed productivity) and temporal variation of seed production at the individual level (hereafter CVi), and infer whether reproductive effort results from the available soil resources for the plant or is primarily determined by selectively favoured strategies. Second, we explored the contribution of between-individual variability in seed production as a potential mechanism of satiation for predispersal seed predators. We found that Q. canariensis trees inhabiting moister and more fertile soils were more productive than those growing in more resource-limited sites. Regarding temporal variation, individuals of the two studied oak species inhabiting these resource-rich environments also exhibited larger values of CVi. Interestingly, we detected a satiating effect on granivorous insects at the tree level in Q. suber, which was evident in those years where between-individual variability in acorn production was higher. These findings suggest that individual seed production (both in terms of seed productivity and inter-annual variability) is strongly dependent on soil resource heterogeneity (at least for one of the two studied oak species) with potential repercussions for recruitment and population dynamics. However, other external factors (such as soil heterogeneity in pathogen abundance) or certain inherent characteristics of the tree might be

Low frequency variability of the Indian Ocean from TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height anomalies

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Somayajulu, Y.K.; Murty, V.S.N.; Sarma, Y.V.B.

and off Sumatra present large variability on both seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The SSH anomalies off Sumatra show dominant influence of warm (cold) ENSO events with peak negative (positive) anomalies coinciding with El Nino (La Nina...

Inter-annual variations in water yield to lakes in northeastern Alberta: implications for estimating critical loads of acidity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roderick HAZEWINKEL

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Stable isotopes of water were applied to estimate water yield to fifty lakes in northeastern Alberta as part of an acid sensitivity study underway since 2002 in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR. Herein, we apply site-specific water yields for each lake to calculate critical loads of acidity using water chemistry data and a steady-state water chemistry model. The main goal of this research was to improve site-specific critical load estimates and to understand the sensitivity to hydrologic variability across a Boreal Plains region under significant oil sands development pressure. Overall, catchment water yields were found to vary significantly over the seven year monitoring period, with distinct variations among lakes and between different regions, overprinted by inter-annual climate-driven shifts. Analysis of critical load estimates based on site-specific water yields suggests that caution must be applied to establish hydrologic conditions and define extremes at specific sites in order to protect more sensitive ecosystems. In general, lakes with low (high water yield tended to be more (less acid sensitive but were typically less (more affected by interannual hydrological variations. While it has been customary to use long-term water yields to define a static critical load for lakes, we find that spatial and temporal variability in water yield may limit effectiveness of this type of assessment in areas of the Boreal Plain characterized by heterogeneous runoff and without a long-term lake-gauging network. Implications for predicting acidification risk are discussed for the AOSR.

Inter- and intra-storm variability of the isotope composition of precipitation in Southern Israel: Are local or large-scale factors responsible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gat, J.R.; Adar, E.; Alpert, P.

2002-01-01

A detailed sequential rain sampling of rainstorms was carried out during the 1989/90 and 1990/91 rainy season in the coastal plain of Israel with an annual average of 530 mm of rain and in the western Negev where the average annual rainfall is 93 mm. On four occasions, rain was concurrently available at both stations. The variability of the isotope composition within a rainy spell is quite considerable but falls short of the range of isotopic values encountered during the total season. Different rainy episodes show distinguishable isotope compositions, which evidently are characteristic of a larger time/space niche than that of the momentary, local, rain event. This is confirmed by the good correlation between the mean isotope composition of concurrently sampled events at both stations. A 'rain amount effect' is not apparent when the amount-weighted data for each complete rain episode are compared, because any possible effect is masked by the inter-storm variability. However by singling out the data within each storm sequence separately, a moderate effect is seen. On the whole, the results seem to support the notion that the isotope data are determined by the large, synoptic scale, situation. However within the range of values characteristic of the origin of the air masses there is a pronounced dependence of the isotope composition on the extent of the cloud field associated with each event, which is interpreted as a measure of the degree of rainout from the air mass, i.e. a typical Rayleigh effect. Local effects related to momentary rain intensity contribute only to a residual modulation of the above-mentioned effects. (author)

SU-G-206-07: Dual-Energy CT Inter- and Intra-Scanner Variability Within One Make and Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobsen, M; Wood, C; Cody, D

2016-01-01

Purpose: It can be logistically quite difficult to scan patients on the same exact device for their repeat visits in multi-scanner facilities. The reliability between dual-energy CT scanners’ quantitative results is not known, nor is their individual repeatability. Therefore, we evaluated inter- and intra-scanner variability with respect to several key clinical quantitative metrics specific to dual-energy CT. Methods: Eleven identical GE HD-750 CT scanners in a busy clinical environment were used to perform dual-energy (DE) CT scans of a large elliptical quality control (QC) phantom (Gammex, Inc.; Middleton, WI) which contains many standard insert materials. The DE-QC phantom was scanned bi-weekly during 2016; 3 to 4 scans were obtained from each scanner (a total of 35 data sets were used for analysis). Iodine accuracy for the 2mg/ml, 5mg/ml and 15mg/ml rods (from the Iodine(Water) image set) and soft tissue HU (40 HU based on NIST constants) from the 50keV data set were used to assess inter- and intra-scanner variability (standard deviation). Results: Intra-scanner variability average for 2mg/ml Iodine was 0.10 mg/ml (range 0.05–0.15 mg/ml), for 5mg/ml Iodine was 0.12 mg/ml (range 0.07–0.16 mg/ml), for 15 mg/ml Iodine was 0.25 mg/ml (range 0.16–0.37 mg/ml), and for the soft tissue inserts was 2.1 HU (range 1.8–2.6 HU). Inter-scanner variability average for 2mg/ml Iodine was 0.16 mg/ml (range 0.11–0.19 mg/ml), for 5mg/ml Iodine was 0.18 mg/ml (range 0.11–0.22 mg/ml), for 15 mg/ml Iodine was 0.35 mg/ml (range 0.23–0.44 mg/ml), and for the soft tissue inserts was 3.8 HU (range 3.1–4.5 HU). Conclusion: Intra-scanner variability for the iodine and soft tissue inserts averaged 3.1% and 5.2% respectively, and inter-scanner variability for these regions analyzed averaged 5.0% and 9.5%, respectively. Future work will include determination of smallest measurable change and acceptable limits for DE-CT scanner variability over longer time intervals. This

Continuous 25-yr aerosol records at coastal Antarctica - I: inter-annual variability of ionic compounds and links to climate indices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weller, Rolf; Koenig-Langlo, Gert (Alfred Wegener Inst. for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)), e-mail: Rolf.Weller@awi.de; Wagenbach, Dietmar; Elsaesser, Christoph (Institut fur Umweltphysik, Univ. of Heidelberg, Heidelberg (Germany)); Legrand, Michel (Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, St Martin d' Heres (France)); Tian-Kunze, Xiangshan (Institut fur Meereskunde, Univ. of Hamburg, Hamburg (Germany))

2011-11-15

The aerosol climatology at the coastal Antarctic Neumayer Station (NM) was investigated based on continuous, 25-yr long observations of biogenic sulphur components (methanesulfonate and non-sea salt sulphate), sea salt and nitrate. Although significant long-term trends could only be detected for nitrate (-3.6 +- 2.5% per year between 1983 and 1993 and +4.0 +- 3.2% per year from 1993-2007), non-harmonic periodicities between 2 and 5 yr were typical for all species. Dedicated time series analyses revealed that relations to sea ice extent and various circulation indices are weak at best or not significant. In particular, no consistent link between sea ice extent and sea salt loadings was evident suggesting only a rather local relevance of the NM sea salt record. Nevertheless, a higher Southern Annular Mode index tended to entail a lower biogenic sulphur signal. In examining the spatial uniformity of the NM findings we contrasted them to respective 17 yr records from the coastal Dumont d'Urville Station. We found similar long-term trends for nitrate, indicating an Antarctic-wide but not identifiable atmospheric signal, although any significant impact of solar activity or pollution could be ruled out. No inter-site variability on the multiannual scale was evident for the other ionic compounds

Impact of intra- versus inter-annual snow depth variation on water relations and photosynthesis for two Great Basin Desert shrubs.

Science.gov (United States)

Loik, Michael E; Griffith, Alden B; Alpert, Holly; Concilio, Amy L; Wade, Catherine E; Martinson, Sharon J

2015-06-01

Snowfall provides the majority of soil water in certain ecosystems of North America. We tested the hypothesis that snow depth variation affects soil water content, which in turn drives water potential (Ψ) and photosynthesis, over 10 years for two widespread shrubs of the western USA. Stem Ψ (Ψ stem) and photosynthetic gas exchange [stomatal conductance to water vapor (g s), and CO2 assimilation (A)] were measured in mid-June each year from 2004 to 2013 for Artemisia tridentata var. vaseyana (Asteraceae) and Purshia tridentata (Rosaceae). Snow fences were used to create increased or decreased snow depth plots. Snow depth on +snow plots was about twice that of ambient plots in most years, and 20 % lower on -snow plots, consistent with several down-scaled climate model projections. Maximal soil water content at 40- and 100-cm depths was correlated with February snow depth. For both species, multivariate ANOVA (MANOVA) showed that Ψ stem, g s, and A were significantly affected by intra-annual variation in snow depth. Within years, MANOVA showed that only A was significantly affected by spatial snow depth treatments for A. tridentata, and Ψ stem was significantly affected by snow depth for P. tridentata. Results show that stem water relations and photosynthetic gas exchange for these two cold desert shrub species in mid-June were more affected by inter-annual variation in snow depth by comparison to within-year spatial variation in snow depth. The results highlight the potential importance of changes in inter-annual variation in snowfall for future shrub photosynthesis in the western Great Basin Desert.

Variability in stream discharge and temperature: a preliminary assessment of the implications for juvenile and spawning Atlantic salmon

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Tetzlaff

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This study focuses on understanding the temporal variability in hydrological and thermal conditions in a small mountain stream and its potential implication for two life stages of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar – stream resident juveniles and returning adult spawners. Stream discharge and temperature in the Girnock Burn, NE Scotland, were characterised over ten hydrological years (1994/1995–2003/2004. Attention was focussed on assessing variations during particular ecologically 'sensitive' time periods when selected life-stages of salmon behaviour may be especially influenced by hydrological and thermal conditions. Empirical discharge data were used to derive hydraulic parameters to predict the Critical Displacement Velocity (CDV of juvenile salmon. This is the velocity above which fish may no longer be able to hold station in the water column and thus can be used as an index of time periods where feeding behaviour might be constrained. In the Girnock Burn, strong inter- and intra-annual variability in hydrological and thermal conditions may have important implications for feeding opportunities for juvenile fish; both during important growth periods in late winter and early spring, and the emergence of fry in the late spring. Time periods when foraging behaviour of juvenile salmon may be constrained by hydraulic conditions were assessed as the percentage time when CDV for 0+ and 1+ fish were exceeded by mean daily stream velocities. Clear seasonal patterns of CDV were apparent, with higher summer values driven by higher stream temperatures and fish length. Inter-annual variability in the time when mean stream velocity exceeded CDV for 0+ fish ranged between 29.3% (1997/1998 and 44.7% (2000/2001. For 1+ fish mean stream velocity exceeded CDV between 14.5% (1997/1998 and 30.7% (2000/2001 of the time. The movement of adult spawners into the Girnock Burn in preparation for autumn spawning (late October to mid-November exhibited a complex

The forcing of monthly precipitation variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal cold season

Science.gov (United States)

Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forest; Kelley, Colin; Funk, Christopher C.

2015-01-01

Southwest Asia, deemed as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during8 the boreal cold season of November-April. The forcing of Southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of climate variability originating over the Atlantic and tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here, we examine the inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability over Southwest Asia and the atmospheric conditions directly responsible in forcing monthly November-April precipitation. Seasonally averaged November-April precipitation over Southwest Asia is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) patterns consistent with Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the warming trend of SST (Trend). On the contrary, the precipitation variability during individual months of November-April are unrelated and are correlated with SST signatures that include PDV, ENSO and Trend in different combinations. Despite strong inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability during November- April over Southwest Asia, similar atmospheric circulations, highlighted by a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave centered over Iraq, force the monthly spatial distributions of precipitation. Tropospheric waves on the eastern side of the equivalent barotropic Rossby wave modifies the flux of moisture and advects the mean temperature gradient, resulting in temperature advection that is balanced by vertical motions over Southwest Asia. The forcing of monthly Southwest Asia precipitation by equivalent barotropic Rossby waves is different than the forcing by baroclinic Rossby waves associated with tropically-forced-only modes of climate variability.

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

Science.gov (United States)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of

Solar induced inter-annual variability of ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Fytterer, Tilo; Nieder, Holger; Perot, Kristell; Sinnhuber, Miriam; Stiller, Gabriele; Urban, Joachim

2014-05-01

Measurements by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding instrument on board the ENVIromental SATellite from 2005 - 2011 are used to investigate the impact of solar and geomagnetic activity on O3 in the stratosphere and mesosphere inside the Antarctic polar vortex. It is known from observations that energetic particles, mainly originating from the sun, precipitate in the Earth atmosphere and produce odd nitrogen NOx (N + NO + NO2) in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere, which is transported downwards into the stratosphere during polar winter. Results from global chemistry-transport models suggest that this leads to a depletion of O3 down to ~30 km at high latitudes during winter. Therefore it appears promising to search for a link between high energetic particles and O3 in actual data sets. Thus in this study, correlation analysis between a 26 days average centred around 1 Apr, 1 May and 1 Jun of several solar/geomagnetic indices (Ap index, F10.7 cm solar radio flux, Lyman-alpha, 2 MeV electrons flux) and 26 day running means from 1 Apr - 1 Nov of O3 in the altitude range from 20 - 70 km were performed. The results reveal negative correlation coefficients propagating downwards throughout the polar winter, at least for the Ap index and the 2 MeV electrons flux. Comparisons with TIMED/SABER and Odin/SMR O3 data are in moderate agreement, also showing a descending negative signal in either indices, but only for the correlation with 1 Apr.

Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

2017-12-01

Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

Variability in global ocean phytoplankton distribution over 1979-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Masotti, I.; Alvain, S.; Moulin, C.; Antoine, D.

2009-04-01

�N ) for prochlorococcus and synechococcus during 1999-2002. Our results show variability in global ocean phytoplankton distribution over a 20-year timescale. Strong variability observed over the inter-annual and inter-decadal scales are shown and tentatively explained using environmental variables.

Bi-decadal variability excited in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system by strong tropical volcanic eruptions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zanchettin, D.; Lorenz, S.; Lohmann, K.; Jungclaus, J.H. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Ocean in the Earth System Department, Hamburg (Germany); Timmreck, C. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Atmosphere in the Earth System Department, Hamburg (Germany); Graf, H.-F. [University of Cambridge, Centre for Atmospheric Science, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Rubino, A. [Ca' Foscari University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Venice (Italy); Krueger, K. [Leibniz-Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany)

2012-07-15

Decadal and bi-decadal climate responses to tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) are inspected in an ensemble simulation covering the last millennium based on the Max Planck Institute - Earth system model. An unprecedentedly large collection of pre-industrial SVEs (up to 45) producing a peak annual-average top-of-atmosphere radiative perturbation larger than -1.5 Wm{sup -2} is investigated by composite analysis. Post-eruption oceanic and atmospheric anomalies coherently describe a fluctuation in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system with an average length of 20-25 years. The study provides a new physically consistent theoretical framework to interpret decadal Northern Hemisphere (NH) regional winter climates variability during the last millennium. The fluctuation particularly involves interactions between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the North Atlantic gyre circulation closely linked to the state of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. It is characterized by major distinctive details. Among them, the most prominent are: (a) a strong signal amplification in the Arctic region which allows for a sustained strengthened teleconnection between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic during the first post-eruption decade and which entails important implications from oceanic heat transport and from post-eruption sea ice dynamics, and (b) an anomalous surface winter warming emerging over the Scandinavian/Western Russian region around 10-12 years after a major eruption. The simulated long-term climate response to SVEs depends, to some extent, on background conditions. Consequently, ensemble simulations spanning different phases of background multidecadal and longer climate variability are necessary to constrain the range of possible post-eruption decadal evolution of NH regional winter climates. (orig.)

Inter-Individual Variability in Human Response to Low-Dose Ionizing Radiation, Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rocke, David

2016-01-01

In order to investigate inter-individual variability in response to low-dose ionizing radiation, we are working with three models, 1) in-vivo irradiated human skin, for which we have a realistic model, but with few subjects, all from a previous project, 2) ex-vivo irradiated human skin, for which we also have a realistic model, though with the limitations involved in keeping skin pieces alive in media, and 3) MatTek EpiDermFT skin plugs, which provides a more realistic model than cell lines, which is more controllable than human samples.

Inter-Individual Variability in Human Response to Low-Dose Ionizing Radiation, Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rocke, David [Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)

2016-08-01

In order to investigate inter-individual variability in response to low-dose ionizing radiation, we are working with three models, 1) in-vivo irradiated human skin, for which we have a realistic model, but with few subjects, all from a previous project, 2) ex-vivo irradiated human skin, for which we also have a realistic model, though with the limitations involved in keeping skin pieces alive in media, and 3) MatTek EpiDermFT skin plugs, which provides a more realistic model than cell lines, which is more controllable than human samples.

Annual and interannual variability of scatterometer ocean surface wind over the South China Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, GS; Xu, Q.; Gong, Z.

2014-01-01

To investigate the annual and interannual variability of ocean surface wind over the South China Sea (SCS), the vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method were employed to analyze a set of combined satellite scatterometer wind data during.......3% of the total variance and represents the East Asian monsoon features. The second mode of VEOF corresponds to a spring-autumn oscillation which accounts for 8.3% of the total variance. To analyze the interannual variability, the annual signal was removed from the wind data set and the VEOFs of the residuals...

Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2011-01-01

A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

Strong Laws of Large Numbers for Arrays of Rowwise NA and LNQD Random Variables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiangfeng Wang

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Some strong laws of large numbers and strong convergence properties for arrays of rowwise negatively associated and linearly negative quadrant dependent random variables are obtained. The results obtained not only generalize the result of Hu and Taylor to negatively associated and linearly negative quadrant dependent random variables, but also improve it.

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Hemispheric transport and influence of meteorology on global aerosol climatology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. L. Zhao

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Based on a 10-yr simulation with the global air quality modeling system GEM-AQ/EC, the northern hemispheric aerosol transport with the inter-annual and seasonal variability as well as the mean climate was investigated. The intercontinental aerosol transport is predominant in the zonal direction from west to east with the ranges of inter-annual variability between 14% and 63%, and is 0.5–2 orders of magnitude weaker in the meridional direction but with larger inter-annual variability. The aerosol transport is found to fluctuate seasonally with a factor of 5–8 between the maximum in late winter and spring and the minimum in late summer and fall. Three meteorological factors controlling the intercontinental aerosol transport and its inter-annual variations are identified from the modeling results: (1 Anomalies in the mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere. (2 Variations of precipitation over the intercontinental transport pathways and (3 Changes of meteorological conditions within the boundary layer. Changed only by the meteorology, the aerosol column loadings in the free troposphere over the source regions of Europe, North America, South and East Asia vary inter-annually with the highest magnitudes of 30–37% in January and December and the lowest magnitudes of 16–20% in August and September, and the inter-annual aerosol variability within the boundary layer influencing the surface concentrations with the magnitudes from 6% to 20% is more region-dependent. As the strongest climatic signal, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO can lead the anomalies in the intercontinental aerosols in El Niño- and La Niña-years respectively with the strong and weak transport of the mid-latitude westerlies and the low latitude easterlies in the Northern Hemisphere (NH.

Population dynamics under increasing environmental variability: implications of climate change for ecological network design criteria

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verboom, J.; Schippers, P.; Cormont, A.; Sterk, M.; Vos, C.C.; Opdam, P.F.M.

2010-01-01

There is growing evidence that climate change causes an increase in variation in conditions for plant and animal populations. This increase in variation, e.g. amplified inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall has population dynamical consequences because it raises the variation in vital

ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.

2018-01-01

It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

Inter-individual variability in the production of flavan-3-ol colonic metabolites: preliminary elucidation of urinary metabotypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mena, Pedro; Ludwig, Iziar A; Tomatis, Virginia B; Acharjee, Animesh; Calani, Luca; Rosi, Alice; Brighenti, Furio; Ray, Sumantra; Griffin, Julian L; Bluck, Les J; Del Rio, Daniele

2018-04-03

There is much information on the bioavailability of (poly)phenolic compounds following acute intake of various foods. However, there are only limited data on the effects of repeated and combined exposure to specific (poly)phenol food sources and the inter-individual variability in their bioavailability. This study evaluated the combined urinary excretion of (poly)phenols from green tea and coffee following daily consumption by healthy subjects in free-living conditions. The inter-individual variability in the production of phenolic metabolites was also investigated. Eleven participants consumed both tablets of green tea and green coffee bean extracts daily for 8 weeks and 24-h urine was collected on five different occasions. The urinary profile of phenolic metabolites and a set of multivariate statistical tests were used to investigate the putative existence of characteristic metabotypes in the production of flavan-3-ol microbial metabolites. (Poly)phenolic compounds in the green tea and green coffee bean extracts were absorbed and excreted after simultaneous consumption, with green tea resulting in more inter-individual variability in urinary excretion of phenolic metabolites. Three metabotypes in the production of flavan-3-ol microbial metabolites were tentatively defined, characterized by the excretion of different amounts of trihydroxyphenyl-γ-valerolactones, dihydroxyphenyl-γ-valerolactones, and hydroxyphenylpropionic acids. The selective production of microbiota-derived metabolites from flavan-3-ols and the putative existence of characteristic metabotypes in their production represent an important development in the study of the bioavailability of plant bioactives. These observations will contribute to better understand the health effects and individual differences associated with consumption of flavan-3-ols, arguably the main class of flavonoids in the human diet.

Inter-annual variability in apparent relative production, survival, and growth of juvenile Lost River and shortnose suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2001–15

Science.gov (United States)

Burdick, Summer M.; Martin, Barbara A.

2017-06-15

Executive SummaryPopulations of the once abundant Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) of the Upper Klamath Basin, decreased so substantially throughout the 20th century that they were listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1988. Major landscape alterations, deterioration of water quality, and competition with and predation by exotic species are listed as primary causes of the decreases in populations. Upper Klamath Lake populations are decreasing because fish lost due to adult mortality, which is relatively low for adult Lost River suckers and variable for adult shortnose suckers, are not replaced by new young adult suckers recruiting into known adult spawning aggregations. Catch-at-age and size data indicate that most adult suckers presently in Upper Klamath Lake spawning populations were hatched around 1991. While, a lack of egg production and emigration of young fish (especially larvae) may contribute, catch-at-length and age data indicate high mortality during the first summer or winter of life may be the primary limitation to the recruitment of young adults. The causes of juvenile sucker mortality are unknown.We compiled and analyzed catch, length, age, and species data on juvenile suckers from Upper Klamath Lake from eight prior studies conducted from 2001 to 2015 to examine annual variation in apparent production, survival, and growth of young suckers. We used a combination of qualitative assessments, general linear models, and linear regression to make inferences about annual differences in juvenile sucker dynamics. The intent of this exercise is to provide information that can be compared to annual variability in environmental conditions with the hopes of understanding what drives juvenile sucker population dynamics.Age-0 Lost River suckers generally grew faster than age-0 shortnose suckers, but the difference in growth rates between the two species varied among years. This unsynchronized annual variation in

Comparison of calculation methods for estimating annual carbon stock change in German forests under forest management in the German greenhouse gas inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

Röhling, Steffi; Dunger, Karsten; Kändler, Gerald; Klatt, Susann; Riedel, Thomas; Stümer, Wolfgang; Brötz, Johannes

2016-12-01

The German greenhouse gas inventory in the land use change sector strongly depends on national forest inventory data. As these data were collected periodically 1987, 2002, 2008 and 2012, the time series on emissions show several "jumps" due to biomass stock change, especially between 2001 and 2002 and between 2007 and 2008 while within the periods the emissions seem to be constant due to the application of periodical average emission factors. This does not reflect inter-annual variability in the time series, which would be assumed as the drivers for the carbon stock changes fluctuate between the years. Therefore additional data, which is available on annual basis, should be introduced into the calculations of the emissions inventories in order to get more plausible time series. This article explores the possibility of introducing an annual rather than periodical approach to calculating emission factors with the given data and thus smoothing the trajectory of time series for emissions from forest biomass. Two approaches are introduced to estimate annual changes derived from periodic data: the so-called logging factor method and the growth factor method. The logging factor method incorporates annual logging data to project annual values from periodic values. This is less complex to implement than the growth factor method, which additionally adds growth data into the calculations. Calculation of the input variables is based on sound statistical methodologies and periodically collected data that cannot be altered. Thus a discontinuous trajectory of the emissions over time remains, even after the adjustments. It is intended to adopt this approach in the German greenhouse gas reporting in order to meet the request for annually adjusted values.

Snow Extent Variability in Lesotho Derived from MODIS Data (2000–2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Wunderle

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In Lesotho, snow cover is not only highly relevant to the climate system, but also affects socio-economic factors such as water storage for irrigation or hydro-electricity. However, while sound knowledge of annual and inter-annual snow dynamics is strongly required by local stakeholders, in-situ snow information remains limited. In this study, satellite data are used to generate a time series of snow cover and to provide the missing information on a national scale. A snow retrieval method, which is based on MODIS data and considers the concept of a normalized difference snow index (NDSI, has been implemented. Monitoring gaps due to cloud cover are filled by temporal and spatial post-processing. The comparison is based on the use of clear sky reference images from Landsat-TM and ENVISAT-MERIS. While the snow product is considered to be of good quality (mean accuracy: 68%, a slight bias towards snow underestimation is observed. Based on the daily product, a consistent time series of snow cover for Lesotho from 2000–2014 was generated for the first time. Analysis of the time series showed that the high annual variability of snow coverage and the short duration of single snow events require daily monitoring with a gap-filling procedure.

Inter- and Intra-individual Variability in Response to Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) at Varying Current Intensities.

Science.gov (United States)

Chew, Taariq; Ho, Kerrie-Anne; Loo, Colleen K

2015-01-01

Translation of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) from research to clinical practice is hindered by a lack of consensus on optimal stimulation parameters, significant inter-individual variability in response, and in sufficient intra-individual reliability data. Inter-individual differences in response to anodal tDCS at a range of current intensities were explored. Intra-individual reliability in response to anodal tDCS across two identical sessions was also investigated. Twenty-nine subjects participated in a crossover study. Anodal-tDCS using four different current intensities (0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2 mA), with an anode size of 16 cm2, was tested. The 0.5 mA condition was repeated to assess intra-individual variability. TMS was used to elicit 40 motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) before 10 min of tDCS, and 20 MEPs at four time-points over 30 min following tDCS. ANOVA revealed no main effect of TIME for all conditions except the first 0.5 mA condition, and no differences in response between the four current intensities. Cluster analysis identified two clusters for the 0.2 and 2 mA conditions only. Frequency distributions based on individual subject responses (excitatory, inhibitory or no response) to each condition indicate possible differential responses between individuals to different current intensities. Test-retest reliability was negligible (ICC(2,1) = -0.50). Significant inter-individual variability in response to tDCS across a range of current intensities was found. 2 mA and 0.2 mA tDCS were most effective at inducing a distinct response. Significant intra-individual variability in response to tDCS was also found. This has implications for interpreting results of single-session tDCS experiments. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Southern Hemisphere Carbon Monoxide Inferannual Variability Observed by Terra/Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT)

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, D. P.; Petron, G.; Novelli, P. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Gille, J. C.; Drummond, J. R.

2010-01-01

Biomass burning is an annual occurrence in the tropical southern hemisphere (SH) and represents a major source of regional pollution. Vegetation fires emit carbon monoxide (CO), which due to its medium lifetime is an excellent tracer of tropospheric transport. CO is also one of the few tropospheric trace gases currently observed from satellite and this provides long-term global measurements. In this paper, we use the 5 year CO data record from the Measurement Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument to examine the inter-annual variability of the SH CO loading and show how this relates to climate conditions which determine the intensity of fire sources. The MOPITT observations show an annual austral springtime peak in the SH zonal CO loading each year with dry-season biomass burning emissions in S. America, southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northwestern Australia. Although fires in southern Africa and S. America typically produce the greatest amount of CO, the most significant inter-annual variation is due to varying fire activity and emissions from the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. We find that this variation in turn correlates well with the El Nino Southern Oscillation precipitation index. Between 2000 and 2005, emissions were greatest in late 2002 and an inverse modeling of the MOPITT data using the MOZART chemical transport model estimates the southeast Asia regional fire source for the year August 2002 to September 2003 to be 52 Tg CO. Comparison of the MOPITT retrievals and NOAA surface network measurements indicate that the latter do not fully capture the inter-annual variability or the seasonal range of the CO zonal average concentration due to biases associated with atmospheric and geographic sampling.

Mediterranean climate modelling: variability and climate change scenarios; Modelisation climatique du Bassin mediterraneen: variabilite et scenarios de changement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somot, S

2005-12-15

Air-sea fluxes, open-sea deep convection and cyclo-genesis are studied in the Mediterranean with the development of a regional coupled model (AORCM). It accurately simulates these processes and their climate variabilities are quantified and studied. The regional coupling shows a significant impact on the number of winter intense cyclo-genesis as well as on associated air-sea fluxes and precipitation. A lower inter-annual variability than in non-coupled models is simulated for fluxes and deep convection. The feedbacks driving this variability are understood. The climate change response is then analysed for the 21. century with the non-coupled models: cyclo-genesis decreases, associated precipitation increases in spring and autumn and decreases in summer. Moreover, a warming and salting of the Mediterranean as well as a strong weakening of its thermohaline circulation occur. This study also concludes with the necessity of using AORCMs to assess climate change impacts on the Mediterranean. (author)

Impact of inter-seasonal solar variability on the association of lower troposphere and cold point tropopause in the tropics: Observations using RO data from COSMIC

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, V.; Dhaka, S. K.; Ho, Shu-Peng; Singh, Narendra; Singh, Vir; Reddy, K. K.; Chun, H.-Y.

2017-12-01

Association of lower tropospheric variations with the cold point tropopause (CPT) is examined on inter-seasonal basis over the tropical region (30°N-30°S) during 2007-2010 using COSMIC/FORMOST-3 Radio Occultation (RO) data. Temperature analyses for this association are shown over different regions of the globe having contrast topography namely over Western Pacific sector, Indian sector, and African sector. Correlation coefficient (r), taken as a measurement of association, show specific longitudinal differences between the lower troposphere (from 1 km to 5 km height) and the CPT. The northern and southern hemispheres show contrast coupling of temperature variation between lower tropospheric region and the CPT. Land and ocean effects are found to contribute in a different way to the correlation coefficient. Analyses show symmetrical structure of 'r' on both sides of the equator over the African region, as data include mostly land region on both side of equator. Data represent positive correlation (r 0.5) over 15°-20° latitudes on either side of the equator over the African region, suggesting strong hold of the inter-seasonal variation of solar diabatic heating influence over the tropic of Cancer and tropic of Capricorn. On the other hand, there is a contrast behaviour over the Indian region, 'r' is nearly negative ( - 1.0) each year in the southern hemisphere (SH) and positive ( 0.4) in the northern hemisphere (NH) with a maxima near tropic of Cancer. Western Pacific region is found to display a linear increase in 'r' from negative ( - 1.0) in SH to positive ( 0.8) in NH. In general, 'r' (positive) maximizes over the land region around 15°-20° latitudes, suggesting a control of in phase inter-seasonal solar heating on the coupling of boundary layer/lower troposphere and CPT region, whereas it turns negative over water body. Analyses suggest that variabilities in CPT over different regions of globe show significant inter-seasonal association with the lower

Inter-Seasonal and Annual Co-Variation of Smallholder Production Portfolios, Volumes and Incomes with Rainfall and Flood Levels in the Amazon Estuary: Implications for Building Livelihood Resilience to Increasing Variability of Hydro-Climatic Regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Vogt, N. D.; Fernandes, K.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Brondizio, E. S.; Almeida, O.; Rivero, S.; Rabelo, F. R.; Dou, Y.; Deadman, P.

2014-12-01

In this paper we investigate inter-seasonal and annual co-variations of rainfall and flood levels with Caboclo production portfolios, and proportions of it they sell and consume, in the Amazon Estuary from August 2012 to August 2014. Caboclos of the estuary maintain a diverse and flexible land-use portfolio, with a shift in dominant use from agriculture to agroforestry and forestry since WWII (Vogt et al., 2014). The current landscape is configured for acai, shrimp and fish production. In the last decade the frequency of wet seasons with anomalous flood levels and duration has increased primarily from changes in rainfall and discharge from upstream basins. Local rainfall, though with less influence on extreme estuarine flood levels, is reported to be more sporadic and intense in wet season and variable in both wet and dry seasons, for yet unknown reasons. The current production portfolio and its flexibility are felt to build resilience to these increases in hydro-climatic variability and extreme events. What is less understood, for time and costliness of daily measures at household levels, is how variations in flood and rainfall levels affect shifts in the current production portfolio of estuarine Caboclos, and the proportions of it they sell and consume. This is needed to identify what local hydro-climatic thresholds are extreme for current livelihoods, that is, that most adversely affect food security and income levels. It is also needed identify the large-scale forcings driving those extreme conditions to build forecasts for when they will occur. Here we present results of production, rainfall and flood data collected daily in households from both the North and South Channel of the Amazon estuary over last two years to identify how they co-vary, and robustness of current production portfolio under different hydro-climatic conditions.

Inter- and intrascanner variability of pulmonary nodule volumetry on low-dose 64-row CT : an anthropomorphic phantom study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Xie, X.; Willemink, M. J.; Zhao, Y.; de Jong, P. A.; van Ooijen, P. M. A.; Oudkerk, M.; Greuter, M. J. W.; Vliegenthart, R.

Objective: To assess inter- and intrascanner variability in volumetry of solid pulmonary nodules in an anthropomorphic thoracic phantom using low-dose CT. Methods: Five spherical solid artificial nodules [diameters 3, 5, 8, 10 and 12mm; CT density 1100 Hounsfield units (HU)] were randomly placed

How plantar exteroceptive efficiency modulates postural and oculomotor control: inter-individual variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnaud eFoisy

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In a previous experiment, we showed that among young and healthy subjects, thin plantar inserts improve postural control and modify vergence amplitudes. In this experiment, however, significant inter-individual variability was observed. We hypothesize that its origin could be attributed to a different reliance upon feet cutaneous afferents. In order to test this hypothesis, we re-analyzed the data relative to 31 young (age 25,7±3,8 and healthy subjects who participated in the first experiment after having classified them into two groups depending on their Plantar Quotient (PQ = Surface area of CoP foam / Surface area of CoP firm ground x100. Foam decreases the information arising from the feet, normally resulting in a PQ>100. Hence, the PQ provides information on the weight of plantar cutaneous afferents used in postural control. Twelve people were Plantar-Independent Subjects, as indicated by a PQ<100. These individuals did not behave like the Normal Plantar Quotient Subjects: they were almost insensitive to the plantar stimulations in terms of postural control and totally insensitive in terms of oculomotor control. We conclude that the inter-individual variability observed in our first experiment is explained by the subjects’ degree of plantar reliance. We propose that plantar independence is a dysfunctional situation revealing an inefficiency in plantar cutaneous afferents. The latter could be due to a latent somatosensory dysfunction generating a noise which prevents the CNS from correctly processing and using feet somatosensory afferents both for balance and vergence control: Plantar Irritating Stimulus. Considering the non-noxious nature and prevalence of this phenomenon, these results can be of great interest to researchers and clinicians who attempt to trigger postural or oculomotor responses through mechanical stimulation of the foot sole.

How does Calanus helgolandicus maintain its population in a variable environment? Analysis of a 25-year time series from the English Channel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maud, J.L.; Atkinson, A.; Hirst, Andrew G.

2015-01-01

. However this relationship was driven by inter-annual variability in female abundance and not that of egg production per female, which ranged only two-fold. Winter abundance of C. helgolandicus at L4 was much more variable than abundance in other seasons, and reflected conditions from the previous growing...

Impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jie; Li, Chao; Brissette, François P.; Chen, Hua; Wang, Mingna; Essou, Gilles R. C.

2018-05-01

Bias correction is usually implemented prior to using climate model outputs for impact studies. However, bias correction methods that are commonly used treat climate variables independently and often ignore inter-variable dependencies. The effects of ignoring such dependencies on impact studies need to be investigated. This study aims to assess the impacts of correcting the inter-variable correlation of climate model outputs on hydrological modeling. To this end, a joint bias correction (JBC) method which corrects the joint distribution of two variables as a whole is compared with an independent bias correction (IBC) method; this is considered in terms of correcting simulations of precipitation and temperature from 26 climate models for hydrological modeling over 12 watersheds located in various climate regimes. The results show that the simulated precipitation and temperature are considerably biased not only in the individual distributions, but also in their correlations, which in turn result in biased hydrological simulations. In addition to reducing the biases of the individual characteristics of precipitation and temperature, the JBC method can also reduce the bias in precipitation-temperature (P-T) correlations. In terms of hydrological modeling, the JBC method performs significantly better than the IBC method for 11 out of the 12 watersheds over the calibration period. For the validation period, the advantages of the JBC method are greatly reduced as the performance becomes dependent on the watershed, GCM and hydrological metric considered. For arid/tropical and snowfall-rainfall-mixed watersheds, JBC performs better than IBC. For snowfall- or rainfall-dominated watersheds, however, the two methods behave similarly, with IBC performing somewhat better than JBC. Overall, the results emphasize the advantages of correcting the P-T correlation when using climate model-simulated precipitation and temperature to assess the impact of climate change on watershed

Intra- and inter-observer variability and accuracy in the determination of linear and angular measurements in computed tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christiansen, E.L.; Thompson, J.R.; Kopp, S.

1986-01-01

The observer variability and accuracy of linear and angular computed tomography (CT) software measurements in the transaxial plane were investigated for the temporomandibular joint with the General Electric 8800 CT/N Scanner. A dried and measured human mandible was embedded in plastic and scanned in vitro. Sixteen observers participated in the study. The following measurements were tested: inter- and extra-condylar distances, transverse condylar dimension, condylar angulation, and the plastic base of the specimen. Three frozen cadaveric heads were similarly scanned and measured in situ. Intra- and inter-observer variabilities were lowest for the specimen base and highest for condylar angulation. Neuroradiologists had the lowest variability as a group, and the radiology residents and paramedical personell had the highest, but the differences were small. No significant difference was found between CT and macroscopic measurement of the mandible. In situ measurement by CT of condyles with structural changes in the transaxial plane was, however, subject to substantial error. It was concluded that transaxial linear measurements of the condylar processes free of significant structural changes had an error and an accuracy well within acceptable limits. The error for angular measurements was significantly greater than the error for linear measurements

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates and C stable isotopes in a Mediterranean beech forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Scartazza, Andrea; Moscatello, Stefano; Matteucci, Giorgio; Battistelli, Alberto; Brugnoli, Enrico

2013-07-01

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and carbon isotope composition (δ(13)C) of NSC were studied in a beech forest of Central Italy over a 2-year period characterized by different environmental conditions. The net C assimilated by forest trees was mainly used to sustain growth early in the season and to accumulate storage carbohydrates in trunk and root wood in the later part of the season, before leaf shedding. Growth and NSC concentration dynamics were only slightly affected by the reduced soil water content (SWC) during the drier year. Conversely, the carbon isotope analysis on NSC revealed seasonal and inter-annual variations of photosynthetic and post-carboxylation fractionation processes, with a significant increase in δ(13)C of wood and leaf soluble sugars in the drier summer year than in the wetter one. The highly significant correlation between δ(13)C of leaf soluble sugars and SWC suggests a decrease of the canopy C isotope discrimination and, hence, an increased water-use efficiency with decreasing soil water availability. This may be a relevant trait for maintaining an acceptable plant water status and a relatively high C sink capacity during dry seasonal periods. Our results suggest a short- to medium-term homeostatic response of the Collelongo beech stand to variations in water availability and solar radiation, indicating that this Mediterranean forest was able to adjust carbon-water balance in order to prevent C depletion and to sustain plant growth and reserve accumulation during relatively dry seasons.

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia

2015-01-01

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.

Catch, effort and sampling strategies in the highly variable sardine fisheries around East Java, Indonesia.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pet, J.S.; Densen, van W.L.T.; Machiels, M.A.M.; Sukkel, M.; Setyohady, D.; Tumuljadi, A.

1997-01-01

Temporal and spatial patterns in the fishery for Sardinella spp. around East Java, Indonesia, were studied in an attempt to develop an efficient catch and effort sampling strategy for this highly variable fishery. The inter-annual and monthly variation in catch, effort and catch per unit of effort

Recent strong inter-decadal change of Meiyu in 121-year variations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Qun

2008-06-01

Full Text Available The strongest change in Meiyu periods in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin (MLY since 1885 occurred in the late 1970s: a stage of weak Meiyu from 1958 to 1978 abruptly transformed into a stage of plentiful Meiyu from 1979 to 1999. The average Meiyu amount of the latter 21 years increased by 66% compared with that of the former 21 years, accompanied by a significant increase in the occurrence of summer floods in the MLY. This change was closely related with the frequent phenomenon of postponed Meiyu ending dates (MED and later onset dates of high summer (ODHS in the MLY. To a considerable degree, this reflects an abrupt change of the summer climate in East China. Further analysis showed that the preceding factors contributing to inter-annual changes in Meiyu in the two 21-year stages delimited above were also very different from each other. The causes of change were associated with the following: China's industrialization has greatly accelerated since the 1970s, accompanied by an increase in atmospheric pollution and a reduction of the solar radiation reaching the ground. The sand area of North China has also expanded due to overgrazing. The enhanced greenhouse effect is manifested in warm winters (especially in February. Meanwhile, the January precipitation of the MLY has for the most part increased, and El Niño events have occurred more frequently since the late 1970s. A correlative scatter diagram consisting of these five factors mentioned above clearly shows that the two stages with opposite Meiyu characteristics are grouped in two contrasting locations with very different environmental (land-atmosphere conditions. It is quite possible that we are now entering a new stage of lesser Meiyu, beginning in 2000.

Temperature variability over the tropical middle atmosphere

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K. Mohanakumar

1994-04-01

Full Text Available A study on the variability of temperature in the tropical middle atmosphere over Thumba (8 32' N, 76 52' E, located at the southern part of India, has been carried out based on rocket observations for a period of 20 years, extending from 1970 to 1990. The rocketsonde-derived mean temperatures over Thumba are corrected prior to 1978 and then compared with the middle atmospheric reference model developed from satellite observations and Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME satellite data. Temperature variability at every 1 km interval in the 25-75 km region was analysed. The tropical stratosphere is found to be highly stable, whereas considerable variability is noted in the middle mesosphere. The effect of seasonal cycle is least in the lower stratosphere. Annual and semi-annual oscillations in temperature are the primary oscillations in the tropical middle atmosphere. Annual temperature oscillations are dominant in the mesosphere and semi-annual oscillations are strong in the stratosphere. The stratopause region is noted to be the part of the middle atmosphere least sensitive to the changes in solar activity and long-term variability.

Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Langner, J.; Bergstroem, R.; Foltescu, V. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

2005-02-01

The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition. (author)

Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Langner, Joakim; Bergström, Robert; Foltescu, Valentin

The potential impact of regional climate change on the distribution and deposition of air pollutants in Europe has been studied using a regional chemistry/transport/deposition model, MATCH. MATCH was set up using meteorological output from two 10-year climate change experiments made with the Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model version 1 (RCA1). RCA1 was forced by boundary conditions from two different global climate models using the IPCC IS92a (business as usual) emission scenario. The global mean warming in both the GCMs was 2.6 K and was reached in the period 2050-2070. Simulations with MATCH indicate substantial potential impact of regional climate change on both deposition of oxidised nitrogen and concentrations of surface ozone. The simulations show a strong increase in surface ozone expressed as AOT40 and mean of daily maximum over southern and central Europe and a decrease in northern Europe. The simulated changes in April-September AOT40 are significant in relation to inter-annual variability over extended areas. Changes in deposition of oxidised nitrogen are much smaller and also less coherent due to the strong inter-annual variability in precipitation in the RCA1 simulations and differences in the regional climate change simulated with RCA1 in the two regional scenarios. Changes in simulated annual deposition are significant in relation to inter-annual variability only over small areas. This indicates that longer simulation periods are necessary to establish changes in deposition.

Characteristics of Spatial Structural Patterns and Temporal Variability of Annual Precipitation in Ningxia

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2011-01-01

[Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of the spatial structural patterns and temporal variability of annual precipitation in Ningxia.[Method] Using rotated empirical orthogonal function,the precipitation concentration index,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall rank statistic method,the characteristics of precipitation on the spatial-temporal variability and trend were analyzed by the monthly precipitation series in Ningxia during 1951-2008.[Result] In Ningxia,the spatial structural patterns of a...

Tropical Atlantic Contributions to Strong Rainfall Variability Along the Northeast Brazilian Coast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. A. Hounsou-gbo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Tropical Atlantic (TA Ocean-atmosphere interactions and their contributions to strong variability of rainfall along the Northeast Brazilian (NEB coast were investigated for the years 1974–2008. The core rainy seasons of March-April and June-July were identified for Fortaleza (northern NEB; NNEB and Recife (eastern NEB; ENEB, respectively. Lagged linear regressions between sea surface temperature (SST and pseudo wind stress (PWS anomalies over the entire TA and strong rainfall anomalies at Fortaleza and Recife show that the rainfall variability of these regions is differentially influenced by the dynamics of the TA. When the Intertropical Convergence Zone is abnormally displaced southward a few months prior to the NNEB rainy season, the associated meridional mode increases humidity and precipitation during the rainy season. Additionally, this study shows predictive effect of SST, meridional PWS, and barrier layer thickness, in the Northwestern equatorial Atlantic, on the NNEB rainfall. The dynamical influence of the TA on the June-July ENEB rainfall variability shows a northwestward-propagating area of strong, positively correlated SST from the southeastern TA to the southwestern Atlantic warm pool (SAWP offshore of Brazil. Our results also show predictive effect of SST, zonal PWS, and mixed layer depth, in the SAWP, on the ENEB rainfall.

Measurement of transplanted pancreatic volume using computed tomography: reliability by intra- and inter-observer variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundqvist, Eva; Segelsjoe, Monica; Magnusson, Anders; Andersson, Anna; Biglarnia, Ali-Reza

2012-01-01

Background Unlike other solid organ transplants, pancreas allografts can undergo a substantial decrease in baseline volume after transplantation. This phenomenon has not been well characterized, as there are insufficient data on reliable and reproducible volume assessments. We hypothesized that characterization of pancreatic volume by means of computed tomography (CT) could be a useful method for clinical follow-up in pancreas transplant patients. Purpose To evaluate the feasibility and reliability of pancreatic volume assessment using CT scan in transplanted patients. Material and Methods CT examinations were performed on 21 consecutive patients undergoing pancreas transplantation. Volume measurements were carried out by two observers tracing the pancreatic contours in all slices. The observers performed the measurements twice for each patient. Differences in volume measurement were used to evaluate intra- and inter-observer variability. Results The intra-observer variability for the pancreatic volume measurements of Observers 1 and 2 was found to be in almost perfect agreement, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.90 (0.77-0.96) and 0.99 (0.98-1.0), respectively. Regarding inter-observer validity, the ICCs for the first and second measurements were 0.90 (range, 0.77-0.96) and 0.95 (range, 0.85-0.98), respectively. Conclusion CT volumetry is a reliable and reproducible method for measurement of transplanted pancreatic volume

Measurement of transplanted pancreatic volume using computed tomography: reliability by intra- and inter-observer variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lundqvist, Eva; Segelsjoe, Monica; Magnusson, Anders [Uppsala Univ., Dept. of Radiology, Oncology and Radiation Science, Section of Radiology, Uppsala (Sweden)], E-mail: eva.lundqvist.8954@student.uu.se; Andersson, Anna; Biglarnia, Ali-Reza [Dept. of Surgical Sciences, Section of Transplantation Surgery, Uppsala Univ. Hospital, Uppsala (Sweden)

2012-11-15

Background Unlike other solid organ transplants, pancreas allografts can undergo a substantial decrease in baseline volume after transplantation. This phenomenon has not been well characterized, as there are insufficient data on reliable and reproducible volume assessments. We hypothesized that characterization of pancreatic volume by means of computed tomography (CT) could be a useful method for clinical follow-up in pancreas transplant patients. Purpose To evaluate the feasibility and reliability of pancreatic volume assessment using CT scan in transplanted patients. Material and Methods CT examinations were performed on 21 consecutive patients undergoing pancreas transplantation. Volume measurements were carried out by two observers tracing the pancreatic contours in all slices. The observers performed the measurements twice for each patient. Differences in volume measurement were used to evaluate intra- and inter-observer variability. Results The intra-observer variability for the pancreatic volume measurements of Observers 1 and 2 was found to be in almost perfect agreement, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.90 (0.77-0.96) and 0.99 (0.98-1.0), respectively. Regarding inter-observer validity, the ICCs for the first and second measurements were 0.90 (range, 0.77-0.96) and 0.95 (range, 0.85-0.98), respectively. Conclusion CT volumetry is a reliable and reproducible method for measurement of transplanted pancreatic volume.

Drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Lambeth-Beagles, R. S.; Troch, P. A.

2010-12-01

The Colorado River is the main water supply to the southwest region. As demand reaches the limit of supply in the southwest it becomes increasingly important to understand the dynamics of streamflow in the Colorado River and in particular the tributaries to the lower Colorado River. Climate change may pose an additional threat to the already-scarce water supply in the southwest. Due to the narrowing margin for error, water managers are keen on extending their ability to predict streamflow volumes on a mid-range to decadal scale. Before a predictive streamflow model can be developed, an understanding of the physical drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin is needed. This research addresses this need by applying multiple statistical methods to identify trends, patterns and relationships present in streamflow, precipitation and temperature over the past century in four contributing watersheds to the lower Colorado River. The four watersheds selected were the Paria, Little Colorado, Virgin/Muddy, and Bill Williams. Time series data over a common period from 1906-2007 for streamflow, precipitation and temperature were used for the initial analysis. Through statistical analysis the following questions were addressed: 1) are there observable trends and patterns in these variables during the past century and 2) if there are trends or patterns, how are they related to each other? The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify trends in the three variables. Assumptions regarding autocorrelation and persistence in the data were taken into consideration. Kendall’s tau-b test was used to establish association between any found trends in the data. Initial results suggest there are two primary processes occurring. First, statistical analysis reveals significant upward trends in temperatures and downward trends in streamflow. However, there appears to be no trend in precipitation data. These trends in streamflow and temperature speak to

Monitoring temporal and spatial variability in sandeel (Ammodytes hexapterus) abundance with pigeon guillemot (Cepphus columba) diets

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Litzow, Michael A.; Piatt, John F.; Abookire, Alisa A.; Prichard, A.K.; Robards, Martin D.

2000-01-01

We evaluated pigeon guillemots (Cepphus columba) as monitors of nearshore fish abundance and community composition during 1995-1999 at Kachemak Bay, Alaska. We studied the composition of chick diets at 10 colonies and simultaneously measured fish abundance around colonies with beach seines and bottom trawls. Sandeels (Ammodytes hexapterus) formed the majority of the diet at one group of colonies. Temporal variability in sandeel abundance explained 74% of inter-annual variability in diet composition at these colonies and 93% of seasonal variability. Diets at other colonies were dominated by demersal fish. Among these colonies, 81% of the variability in the proportion of sandeels in diets was explained by spatial differences in sanded abundance. Pigeon guillemots exhibited a non-linear functional response to sandeel abundance in the area where these fish were most abundant. Temporal and spatial variability in demersal fish abundance was not consistently reflected in diets. Spatial differences in the proportion of different demersal fishes in the diet may have been driven by differences in guillemot prey preference. Prey specialization by individual pigeon guillemots was common, and may operate at the colony level. Inter-annual variability in sandeel abundance may have been tracked more accurately because the magnitude of change (11-fold) was greater than that of demersal fish (three-fold). (C) 2000 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

Annual and seasonal distribution of intertidal foraminifera and stable carbon isotope geochemistry, Bandon Marsh, Oregon, USA

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Milker, Yvonne; Horton, Benjamin; Vane, Christopher; Engelhart, Simon; Nelson, Alan R.; Witter, Robert C.; Khan, Nicole S.; Bridgeland, William

2014-01-01

We investigated the influence of inter-annual and seasonal differences on the distribution of live and dead foraminifera, and the inter-annual variability of stable carbon isotopes (d13C), total organic carbon (TOC) values and carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratios in bulk sediments from intertidal environments of Bandon Marsh (Oregon, USA). Living and dead foraminiferal species from 10 stations were analyzed over two successive years in the summer (dry) and fall (wet) seasons. There were insignificant inter-annual and seasonal variations in the distribution of live and dead species. But there was a noticeable decrease in calcareous assemblages (Haynesina sp.) between live populations and dead assemblages, indicating that most of the calcareous tests were dissolved after burial; the agglutinated assemblages were comparable between constituents. The live populations and dead assemblages were dominated by Miliammina fusca in the tidal flat and low marsh, Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata and M. fusca in the high marsh, and Trochamminita irregularis and Balticammina pseudomacrescens in the highest marsh to upland. Geochemical analyses (d13C, TOC and C/N of bulk sedimentary organic matter) show no significant influence of inter-annual variations but a significant correlation of d13C values (R = 20.820, p , 0.001), TOC values (R = 0.849, p , 0.001) and C/N ratios (R = 0.885, p , 0.001) to elevation with respect to the tidal frame. Our results suggest that foraminiferal assemblages and d13C and TOC values, as well as C/N ratios, in Bandon Marsh are useful in reconstructing paleosea-levels on the North American Pacific coast.

Inter-species and intra-annual variations of moss nitrogen utilization: Implications for nitrogen deposition assessment.

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Dong, Yu-Ping; Liu, Xue-Yan; Sun, Xin-Chao; Song, Wei; Zheng, Xu-Dong; Li, Rui; Liu, Cong-Qiang

2017-11-01

Moss nitrogen (N) concentrations and natural 15 N abundance (δ 15 N values) have been widely employed to evaluate annual levels and major sources of atmospheric N deposition. However, different moss species and one-off sampling were often used among extant studies, it remains unclear whether moss N parameters differ with species and different samplings, which prevented more accurate assessment of N deposition via moss survey. Here concentrations, isotopic ratios of bulk carbon (C) and bulk N in natural epilithic mosses (Bryum argenteum, Eurohypnum leptothallum, Haplocladium microphyllum and Hypnum plumaeforme) were measured monthly from August 2006 to August 2007 at Guiyang, SW China. The H. plumaeforme had significantly (P < 0.05) lower bulk N concentrations and higher δ 13 C values than other species. Moss N concentrations were significantly (P < 0.05) lower in warmer months than in cooler months, while moss δ 13 C values exhibited an opposite pattern. The variance component analyses showed that different species contributed more variations of moss N concentrations and δ 13 C values than different samplings. Differently, δ 15 N values did not differ significantly between moss species, and its variance mainly reflected variations of assimilated N sources, with ammonium as the dominant contributor. These results unambiguously reveal the influence of inter-species and intra-annual variations of moss N utilization on N deposition assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-Population Variability of Endosymbiont Densities in the Asian Citrus Psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama).

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Chia-Ching; Gill, Torrence A; Hoffmann, Mark; Pelz-Stelinski, Kirsten S

2016-05-01

The Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) is an insect pest capable of transmitting Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas), the causal agent of citrus greening in North America. D. citri also harbors three endosymbionts, Wolbachia, Candidatus Carsonella ruddii, and Candidatus Profftella armatura, which may influence D. citri physiology and fitness. Although genomic researches on these bacteria have been conducted, much remains unclear regarding their ecology and inter-population variability in D. citri. The present work examined the densities of each endosymbiont in adult D. citri sampled from different populations using quantitative PCR. Under field conditions, the densities of all three endosymbionts positively correlated with each other, and they are associated with D. citri gender and locality. In addition, the infection density of CLas also varied across populations. Although an analysis pooling D. citri from different populations showed that CLas-infected individuals tended to have lower endosymbiont densities compared to uninfected individuals, the difference was not significant when the population was included as a factor in the analysis, suggesting that other population-specific factors may have stronger effects on endosymbiont densities. To determine whether there is a genetic basis to the density differences, endosymbiont densities between aged CLas-negative females of two D. citri populations reared under standardized laboratory conditions were compared. Results suggested that inter-population variability in Wolbachia infection density is associated with the genotypes of the endosymbiont or the host. Findings from this work could facilitate understanding of D. citri-bacterial associations that may benefit the development of approaches for managing citrus greening, such as prevention of CLas transmission.

Inter-annual rainfall variability and droughts occurrence during ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study examined the trends of rainfall and the intensity of drought during sowing season and mid-season of rice farming calendar in the rainforest belt of Nigeria using data spanning 52 years (1961-2012) for five synoptic weather stations. The trends were investigated using simple linear regression and second order ...

Inter-Annual Variability of Soil Moisture Stress Function in the Wheat Field

Science.gov (United States)

Akuraju, V. R.; Ryu, D.; George, B.; Ryu, Y.; Dassanayake, K. B.

2014-12-01

Root-zone soil moisture content is a key variable that controls the exchange of water and energy fluxes between land and atmosphere. In the soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) schemes, the influence of root-zone soil moisture on evapotranspiration (ET) is parameterized by the soil moisture stress function (SSF). Dependence of actual ET: potential ET (fPET) or evaporative fraction to the root-zone soil moisture via SSF can also be used inversely to estimate root-zone soil moisture when fPET is estimated by remotely sensed land surface states. In this work we present fPET versus available soil water (ASW) in the root zone observed in the experimental farm sites in Victoria, Australia in 2012-2013. In the wheat field site, fPET vs ASW exhibited distinct features for different soil depth, net radiation, and crop growth stages. Interestingly, SSF in the wheat field presented contrasting shapes for two cropping years of 2012 and 2013. We argue that different temporal patterns of rainfall (and resulting soil moisture) during the growing seasons in 2012 and 2013 are responsible for the distinctive SSFs. SSF of the wheat field was simulated by the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM was able to reproduce the observed fPET vs. ASW. We discuss implications of our findings for existing modeling and (inverse) remote sensing approaches relying on SSF and alternative growth-stage-dependent SSFs.

Inter- and intra-population genetic variability of introduced silkworm (Bombyx mori L.) strains raised in Bulgaria

OpenAIRE

Teodora Staykova

2013-01-01

The genetic variability of four populations belonging to two introduced silkworm strains (Bombyx mori L.) of various origins has been studied using isoenzymic analysis of six enzyme systems. Nonspecific esterases, phosphoglucomutase, malate dehydrogenase, acid phosphatase, alkaline phosphatase and hexokinase from different tissue of larvae 5th instar have been analysed using PAGE. Polymorphism in six from a total of nine loci has been found. Inter- and intra-population differences have been a...

Inter- and intrascanner variability of pulmonary nodule volumetry on low-dose 64-row CT: an anthropomorphic phantom study

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Xie, X; Willemink, M J; Zhao, Y; de Jong, P A; van Ooijen, P M A; Oudkerk, M; Greuter, M J W

2013-01-01

Objective: To assess inter- and intrascanner variability in volumetry of solid pulmonary nodules in an anthropomorphic thoracic phantom using low-dose CT. Methods: Five spherical solid artificial nodules [diameters 3, 5, 8, 10 and 12 mm; CT density +100 Hounsfield units (HU)] were randomly placed inside an anthropomorphic thoracic phantom in different combinations. The phantom was examined on two 64-row multidetector CT (64-MDCT) systems (CT-A and CT-B) from different vendors with a low-dose protocol. Each CT examination was performed three times. The CT examinations were evaluated twice by independent blinded observers. Nodule volume was semi-automatically measured by dedicated software. Interscanner variability was evaluated by Bland–Altman analysis and expressed as 95% confidence interval (CI) of relative differences. Intrascanner variability was expressed as 95% CI of relative variation from the mean. Results: No significant difference in CT-derived volume was found between CT-A and CT-B, except for the 3-mm nodules (pvolumetry of artificial pulmonary nodules between 5 mm and 12 mm in diameter. Inter- and intrascanner variability decreases at a larger nodule size to a maximum of 4.9% for ≥8 mm nodules. Advances in knowledge: The commonly accepted cut-off of 25% to determine nodule growth has the potential to be reduced for ≥8 mm nodules. This offers the possibility of reducing the interval for repeated CT scans in lung cancer screenings. PMID:23884758

Seasonal and Inter-annual Phenological Varibility is Greatest in Low-Arctic and Wet Sites Across the North Slope of Alaska as Observed from Multiple Remote Sensing Platforms

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Vargas, S. A., Jr.; Andresen, C. G.; May, J. L.; Oberbauer, S. F.; Hollister, R. D.; Tweedie, C. E.

2017-12-01

The Arctic is experiencing among the most dramatic impacts from climate variability on the planet. Arctic plant phenology has been identified as an ideal indicator of climate change impacts and provides great insight into seasonal and inter-annual vegetative trends and their responses to such changes. Traditionally, phenology has been quantified using satellite-based systems and plot-level observations but each approach presents limitations especially in high latitude regions. Mid-scale systems (e.g. automated sensor platforms and trams) have shown to provide alternative, and in most cases, cheaper solutions with comparable results to those acquired traditionally. This study contributes to the US Arctic Observing Network (AON) and assesses the effectiveness of using digital images acquired from pheno-cams, a kite aerial photography (KAP) system, and plot-level images (PLI) in their capacity to assess phenological variability (e.g. snow melt, greening and end-of-season) for dominant vegetation communities present at two sites in both Utqiagvik and Atqasuk, Alaska, namely the Mobile Instrumented Sensor Platform (MISP) and the Circum-arctic Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) grids. RGB indices (e.g. GEI and %G) acquired from these methods were compared to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) calculated from multispectral ground-based reflectance measurements, which has been identified and used as a proxy of primary productivity across multiple ecosystems including the Arctic. The 5 years of growing season data collected generally resulted with stronger Pearson's correlations between indices located in plots containing higher soil moisture versus those that were drier. Future studies will extend platform inter-comparison to the satellite level by scaling trends to MODIS land surface products. Trends documented thus far, however, suggest that the long-term changes in satellite NDVI for these study areas, could be a direct response from wet tundra landscapes.

Hydrologic Variability of the Cosumnes River Floodplain

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Eric Booth

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Natural floodplain ecosystems are adapted to highly variable hydrologic regimes, which include periodic droughts, infrequent large floods, and relatively frequent periods of inundation. To more effectively manage water resources and maintain ecosystem services provided by floodplains – and associated aquatic, riparian, and wetland habitats – requires an understanding of seasonal and inter-annual hydrologic variability of floodplains. The Cosumnes River, the largest river on the west-slope Sierra Nevada mountains without a major dam, provides a pertinent test case to develop a systematic classification of hydrologic variability. By examining the dynamics of its relatively natural flow regime, and a 98-year streamflow record (1908 – 2005, we identified 12 potential flood types. We identified four duration thresholds, defined as short (S, medium (M, long (L, and very long (V. We then intersected the flood duration division by three magnitude classes, defined as small-medium (1, large (2, and very large (3. Of the 12 possible flood types created by this classification matrix, the Cosumnes River streamflow record populated 10 such classes. To assess the robustness of our classification, we employed discriminant analysis to test class fidelity based on independent measures of flood capability, such as start date. Lastly, we used hierarchical divisive clustering to classify water years by flood type composition resulting in 8 water year types. The results of this work highlight the significant seasonal and inter-annual variability in natural flood regimes in Central Valley rivers. The construction of water impoundment and flood control structures has significantly altered all aspects of the flood pulse. Restoring floodplain ecosystem services will require re-establishing key elements of these historic flood regimes in order to achieve regional restoration goals and objectives.

Inter-annual variability of surface ozone at coastal (Dumont d'Urville, 2004–2014 and inland (Concordia, 2007–2014 sites in East Antarctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Legrand

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Surface ozone has been measured since 2004 at the coastal East Antarctic site of Dumont d'Urville (DDU, and since 2007 at the Concordia station located on the high East Antarctic plateau. This paper discusses long-term changes, seasonal and diurnal cycles, as well as inter-annual summer variability observed at these two East Antarctic sites. At Concordia, near-surface ozone data were complemented by balloon soundings and compared to similar measurements done at the South Pole. The DDU record is compared to those obtained at the coastal site of Syowa, also located in East Antarctica, as well as the coastal sites of Neumayer and Halley, both located on the coast of the Weddell Sea in West Antarctica. Surface ozone mixing ratios exhibit very similar seasonal cycles at Concordia and the South Pole. However, in summer the diurnal cycle of ozone is different at the two sites with a drop of ozone in the afternoon at Concordia but not at the South Pole. The vertical distribution of ozone above the snow surface also differs. When present, the ozone-rich layer located near the ground is better mixed and deeper at Concordia (up to 400 m than at the South Pole during sunlight hours. These differences are related to different solar radiation and wind regimes encountered at these two inland sites. DDU appears to be the coastal site where the impact of the late winter/spring bromine chemistry is the weakest, but where the impact of elevated ozone levels caused by NOx snow emissions from the high Antarctic plateau is the highest. The highest impact of the bromine chemistry is seen at Halley and Neumayer, and to a lesser extent at Syowa. These three sites are only weakly impacted by the NOx chemistry and the net ozone production occurring on the high Antarctic plateau. The differences in late winter/spring are attributed to the abundance of sea ice offshore from the sites, whereas those in summer are related to the topography of East Antarctica that promotes

In situ study of the impact of inter- and intra-reader variability on region of interest (ROI) analysis in preclinical molecular imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Habte, Frezghi; Budhiraja, Shradha; Keren, Shay; Doyle, Timothy C; Levin, Craig S; Paik, David S

2013-01-01

We estimated reader-dependent variability of region of interest (ROI) analysis and evaluated its impact on preclinical quantitative molecular imaging. To estimate reader variability, we used five independent image datasets acquired each using microPET and multispectral fluorescence imaging (MSFI). We also selected ten experienced researchers who utilize molecular imaging in the same environment that they typically perform their own studies. Nine investigators blinded to the data type completed the ROI analysis by drawing ROIs manually that delineate the tumor regions to the best of their knowledge and repeated the measurements three times, non-consecutively. Extracted mean intensities of voxels within each ROI are used to compute the coefficient of variation (CV) and characterize the inter- and intra-reader variability. The impact of variability was assessed through random samples iterated from normal distributions for control and experimental groups on hypothesis testing and computing statistical power by varying subject size, measured difference between groups and CV. The results indicate that inter-reader variability was 22.5% for microPET and 72.2% for MSFI. Additionally, mean intra-reader variability was 10.1% for microPET and 26.4% for MSFI. Repeated statistical testing showed that a total variability of CV variability has been observed mainly due to differences in the ROI placement and geometry drawn between readers, which may adversely affect statistical power and erroneously lead to negative study outcomes.

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

Science.gov (United States)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Westerberg, Ida K.; Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Hidalgo-Leon, Hugo; Halldin, Sven

2017-04-01

Long-term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information - to locally observed discharge - can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Climate variability exerts a strong influence on streamflow variability on long and short time scales, in particular in the Central-American region. We therefore explored the use of climate variability knowledge to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty of a conceptual hydrological model applied to a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. We then assessed how well climate-based constraints applied at long-term, inter-annual and intra-annual time scales could constrain model uncertainty. Finally, we compared the climate-based constraints to a constraint on low-flow statistics based on information obtained from global maps. We evaluated our method in terms of the ability of the model to reproduce the observed hydrograph and the active catchment processes in terms of two efficiency measures, a statistical consistency measure, a spread measure and 17 hydrological signatures. We found that climate variability knowledge was useful for reducing model uncertainty, in particular, unrealistic representation of deep groundwater processes. The constraints based on global maps of low-flow statistics provided more constraining information than those based on climate variability, but the latter rejected slow rainfall-runoff representations that the low flow statistics did not reject. The use of such knowledge, together with information on low-flow statistics and constraints on parameter relationships showed to be useful to

Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Thai, Khoa T D; Cazelles, Bernard; Nguyen, Nam Van; Vo, Long Thi; Boni, Maciej F; Farrar, Jeremy; Simmons, Cameron P; van Doorn, H Rogier; de Vries, Peter J

2010-07-13

Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i) to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii) to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii) to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv) to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam. We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found. A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khoa T D Thai

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Dengue is a major global public health problem with increasing incidence and geographic spread. The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.Wavelet analyses were performed on time series of monthly notified dengue cases from January 1994 to June 2009 (i to detect and quantify dengue periodicity, (ii to describe synchrony patterns in both time and space, (iii to investigate the spatio-temporal waves and (iv to associate the relationship between dengue incidence and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO indices in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam.We demonstrate a continuous annual mode of oscillation and a multi-annual cycle of around 2-3-years was solely observed from 1996-2001. Synchrony in time and between districts was detected for both the annual and 2-3-year cycle. Phase differences used to describe the spatio-temporal patterns suggested that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous among all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district. The 2-3-year periodic wave was moving towards, rather than away from Phan Thiet district. A strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence in the 2-3-year periodic band was found.A multi-annual mode of oscillation was observed and these 2-3-year waves of infection probably started outside Binh Thuan province. Associations with climatic variables were observed with dengue incidence. Here, we have provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam.

Annual rings in a native Hawaiian tree, Sophora chrysophylla, on Maunakea, Hawai‘i

Science.gov (United States)

Kainana S. Francisco; Patrick J. Hart; Jinbao Li; Edward R. Cook; Patrick J. Baker

2015-01-01

Annual rings are not commonly produced in tropical trees because they grow in a relatively aseasonal environment. However, in the subalpine zones of Hawai‘i's highest volcanoes, there is often strong seasonal variability in temperature and rainfall. Using classical dendrochronological methods, annual growth rings were shown to occur in Sophora...

Exploring the impact of climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum on the pattern of human occupation of Iberia.

Science.gov (United States)

Burke, Ariane; Levavasseur, Guillaume; James, Patrick M A; Guiducci, Dario; Izquierdo, Manuel Arturo; Bourgeon, Lauriane; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Vrac, Mathieu

2014-08-01

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was a global climate event, which had significant repercussions for the spatial distribution and demographic history of prehistoric populations. In Eurasia, the LGM coincides with a potential bottleneck for modern humans and may mark the divergence date for Asian and European populations (Keinan et al., 2007). In this research, the impact of climate variability on human populations in the Iberian Peninsula during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is examined with the aid of downscaled high-resolution (16 × 16 km) numerical climate experiments. Human sensitivity to short time-scale (inter-annual) climate variability during this key time period, which follows the initial modern human colonisation of Eurasia and the extinction of the Neanderthals, is tested using the spatial distribution of archaeological sites. Results indicate that anatomically modern human populations responded to small-scale spatial patterning in climate variability, specifically inter-annual variability in precipitation levels as measured by the standard precipitation index. Climate variability at less than millennial scale, therefore, is shown to be an important component of ecological risk, one that played a role in regulating the spatial behaviour of prehistoric human populations and consequently affected their social networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-seasonal variability in baseflow recession rates: The role of aquifer antecedent storage in central California watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Bart, Ryan; Hope, Allen

2014-11-01

Baseflow recession rates vary inter-seasonally in many watersheds. This variability is generally associated with changes in evapotranspiration; however, an additional and less studied control over inter-seasonal baseflow recession rates is the effect of aquifer antecedent storage. Understanding the role of aquifer antecedent storage on baseflow recession rates is crucial for Mediterranean-climate regions, where seasonal asynchronicity of precipitation and energy levels produces large inter-seasonal differences in aquifer storage. The primary objective of this study was to elucidate the relation between aquifer antecedent storage and baseflow recession rates in four central California watersheds using antecedent streamflow as a surrogate for watershed storage. In addition, a parsimonious storage-discharge model consisting of two nonlinear stores in parallel was developed as a heuristic tool for interpreting the empirical results and providing insight into how inter-seasonal changes in aquifer antecedent storage may affect baseflow recession rates. Antecedent streamflow cumulated from the beginning of the wateryear was found to be the strongest predictor of baseflow recession rates, indicating that inter-seasonal differences in aquifer storage are a key control on baseflow recession rates in California watersheds. Baseflow recession rates and antecedent streamflow exhibited a negative power-law relation, with baseflow recession rates decreasing by up to two orders of magnitude as antecedent streamflow levels increased. Inference based on the storage-discharge model indicated that the dominant source of recession flow shifted from small, rapid response aquifers at the beginning of the wet season to large, seasonal aquifers as the wet season progressed. Aquifer antecedent storage in California watersheds should be accounted for along with evapotranspiration when characterizing baseflow recession rates.

Sensitivity of soil respiration to variability in soil moisture and temperature in a humid tropical forest

Science.gov (United States)

Tana Wood; M. Detto; W.L. Silver

2013-01-01

Precipitation and temperature are important drivers of soil respiration. The role of moisture and temperature are generally explored at seasonal or inter-annual timescales; however, significant variability also occurs on hourly to daily time-scales. We used small (1.54 m2), throughfall exclusion shelters to evaluate the role soil moisture and temperature as temporal...

Inter-annual variation in the response of leaf-out onset to soil moisture increase in a teak plantation in northern Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshifuji, Natsuko; Igarashi, Yasunori; Tanaka, Nobuaki; Tanaka, Katsunori; Sato, Takanori; Tantasirin, Chatchai; Suzuki, Masakazu

2014-11-01

To understand the impact of inter-annual climate change on vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges, it has become necessary to explore changes in leaf-out onset in response to climatic fluctuations. We examined the response of leaf-out and transpiration onset dates to soil moisture in a teak plantation in northern Thailand based on a 12-year leaf area index and sap flow measurements. The date of leaf-out and transpiration onset varied between years by up to 40 days, and depended on the initial date when the relative extractable water in a soil layer of 0-0.6 m (Θ) was greater than 0.2 being consistent with our previous results. Our new finding is that the delay in leaf-out and transpiration onset relative to the initial date when Θ > 0.2 increases linearly as the initial date on which Θ > 0.2 becomes earlier. The delay spans about 20 days in years when Θ > 0.2 occurs in March (the late dry season)-much earlier than usual because of heavy pre-monsoon rainfalls-while there is little delay in years when Θ > 0.2 occurs in May. This delay indicates the influence of additional factors on leaf-out onset, which controls the delay in the response of leaf-out to soil moisture increase. The results increased our knowledge about the pattern and extent of the changes in leaf phenology that occur in response to the inter-annual climate variation in tropical regions, where, in particular, such research is needed.

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

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Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.

The Influences of Drought and Land-Cover Conversion on Inter-Annual Variation of NPP in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Zone of China Based on MODIS Data.

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Dailiang Peng

Full Text Available Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP zone accounts for more than 40% of China's landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001-2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05. The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone.

Wind-generated Electricity in China: Decreasing Potential, Inter-annual Variability and Association with Changing Climate.

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Sherman, Peter; Chen, Xinyu; McElroy, Michael B

2017-11-24

China hosts the world's largest market for wind-generated electricity. The financial return and carbon reduction benefits from wind power are sensitive to changing wind resources. Wind data derived from an assimilated meteorological database are used here to estimate what the wind generated electricity in China would have been on an hourly basis over the period 1979 to 2015 at a geographical resolution of approximately 50 km × 50 km. The analysis indicates a secular decrease in generating potential over this interval, with the largest declines observed for western Inner Mongolia (15 ± 7%) and the northern part of Gansu (17 ± 8%), two leading wind investment areas. The decrease is associated with long-term warming in the vicinity of the Siberian High (SH), correlated also with the observed secular increase in global average surface temperatures. The long-term trend is modulated by variability relating to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). A linear regression model incorporating indices for the PDO and AO, as well as the declining trend, can account for the interannual variability of wind power, suggesting that advances in long-term forecasting could be exploited to markedly improve management of future energy systems.

SU-F-J-103: Assessment of Liver Tumor Contrast for Radiation Therapy: Inter-Patient and Inter-Sequence Variability

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Moore, B [Duke University Medical Physics Graduate Program, Durham, NC (United States); Yin, F; Cai, J [Duke University Medical Physics Graduate Program, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Radiation Oncology, Durham, NC (United States); Czito, B; Palta, M [Duke University Medical Center, Radiation Oncology, Durham, NC (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To determine the variation in tumor contrast between different MRI sequences and between patients for the purpose of MRI-based treatment planning. Methods: Multiple MRI scans of 11 patients with cancer(s) in the liver were included in this IRB-approved study. Imaging sequences consisted of T1W MRI, Contrast-Enhanced T1W MRI, T2W MRI, and T2*/T1W MRI. MRI images were acquired on a 1.5T GE Signa scanner with a four-channel torso coil. We calculated the tumor-to-tissue contrast to noise ratio (CNR) for each MR sequence by contouring the tumor and a region of interest (ROI) in a homogeneous region of the liver using the Eclipse treatment planning software. CNR was calculated (I-Tum-I-ROI)/SD-ROI, where I-Tum and I-ROI are the mean values of the tumor and the ROI respectively, and SD-ROI is the standard deviation of the ROI. The same tumor and ROI structures were used in all measurements for different MR sequences. Inter-patient Coefficient of variation (CV), and inter-sequence CV was determined. In addition, mean and standard deviation of CNR were calculated and compared between different MR sequences. Results: Our preliminary results showed large inter-patient CV (range: 37.7% to 88%) and inter-sequence CV (range 5.3% to 104.9%) of liver tumor CNR, indicating great variations in tumor CNR between MR sequences and between patients. Tumor CNR was found to be largest in CE-T1W (8.5±7.5), followed by T2W (4.2±2.4), T1W (3.4±2.2), and T2*/T1W (1.7±0.6) MR scans. The inter-patient CV of tumor CNR was also the largest in CE-T1W (88%), followed by T1W (64.3%), T1W (56.2%), and T2*/T1W (37.7) MR scans. Conclusion: Large inter-sequence and inter-patient variations were observed in liver tumor CNR. CE-T1W MR images on average provided the best tumor CNR. Efforts are needed to optimize tumor contrast and its consistency for MRI-based treatment planning of cancer in the liver. This project is supported by NIH grant: 1R21CA165384.

SU-F-J-103: Assessment of Liver Tumor Contrast for Radiation Therapy: Inter-Patient and Inter-Sequence Variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, B; Yin, F; Cai, J; Czito, B; Palta, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: To determine the variation in tumor contrast between different MRI sequences and between patients for the purpose of MRI-based treatment planning. Methods: Multiple MRI scans of 11 patients with cancer(s) in the liver were included in this IRB-approved study. Imaging sequences consisted of T1W MRI, Contrast-Enhanced T1W MRI, T2W MRI, and T2*/T1W MRI. MRI images were acquired on a 1.5T GE Signa scanner with a four-channel torso coil. We calculated the tumor-to-tissue contrast to noise ratio (CNR) for each MR sequence by contouring the tumor and a region of interest (ROI) in a homogeneous region of the liver using the Eclipse treatment planning software. CNR was calculated (I_Tum-I_ROI)/SD_ROI, where I_Tum and I_ROI are the mean values of the tumor and the ROI respectively, and SD_ROI is the standard deviation of the ROI. The same tumor and ROI structures were used in all measurements for different MR sequences. Inter-patient Coefficient of variation (CV), and inter-sequence CV was determined. In addition, mean and standard deviation of CNR were calculated and compared between different MR sequences. Results: Our preliminary results showed large inter-patient CV (range: 37.7% to 88%) and inter-sequence CV (range 5.3% to 104.9%) of liver tumor CNR, indicating great variations in tumor CNR between MR sequences and between patients. Tumor CNR was found to be largest in CE-T1W (8.5±7.5), followed by T2W (4.2±2.4), T1W (3.4±2.2), and T2*/T1W (1.7±0.6) MR scans. The inter-patient CV of tumor CNR was also the largest in CE-T1W (88%), followed by T1W (64.3%), T1W (56.2%), and T2*/T1W (37.7) MR scans. Conclusion: Large inter-sequence and inter-patient variations were observed in liver tumor CNR. CE-T1W MR images on average provided the best tumor CNR. Efforts are needed to optimize tumor contrast and its consistency for MRI-based treatment planning of cancer in the liver. This project is supported by NIH grant: 1R21CA165384

The role of discharge variability in the formation and preservation of alluvial sediment bodies

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Fielding, Christopher R.; Alexander, Jan; Allen, Jonathan P.

2018-03-01

Extant, planform-based facies models for alluvial deposits are not fully fit for purpose, because they over-emphasise plan form whereas there is little in the alluvial rock record that is distinctive of any particular planform, and because the planform of individual rivers vary in both time and space. Accordingly, existing facies models have limited predictive capability. In this paper, we explore the role of inter-annual peak discharge variability as a possible control on the character of the preserved alluvial record. Data from a suite of modern rivers, for which long-term gauging records are available, and for which there are published descriptions of subsurface sedimentary architecture, are analysed. The selected rivers are categorized according to their variance in peak discharge or the coefficient of variation (CVQp = standard deviation of the annual peak flood discharge over the mean annual peak flood discharge). This parameter ranges over the rivers studied between 0.18 and 1.22, allowing classification of rivers as having very low ( 0.90) annual peak discharge variance. Deposits of rivers with very low and low peak discharge variability are dominated by cross-bedding on various scales and preserve macroform bedding structure, allowing the interpretation of bar construction processes. Rivers with moderate values preserve mostly cross-bedding, but records of macroform processes are in places muted and considerably modified by reworking. Rivers with high and very high values of annual peak discharge variability show a wide range of bedding structures commonly including critical and supercritical flow structures, abundant in situ trees and transported large, woody debris, and their deposits contain pedogenically modified mud partings and generally lack macroform structure. Such a facies assemblage is distinctively different from the conventional fluvial style recorded in published facies models but is widely developed both in modern and ancient alluvial

Inter- and intra-observer variability in the assessment of atelectasis and consolidation in neonatal chest radiographs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bloomfield, F.H.; Teele, R.L.; Voss, M.; Knight, D.B.; Harding, J.E.

1999-01-01

Background. Radiology is an essential part of neonatal intensive care. Interpretation of chest radiographs frequently contributes to respiratory management of neonates, but there has been little assessment of the consistency of this interpretation. Objective. To assess the inter- and intra-observer variability for the reporting of atelectasis and/or consolidation in neonatal chest radiographs. Materials and methods. A total of 585 chest radiographs from the 220 babies ventilated in our nursery over a 2-year period were coded by two radiologists for generalised, lobar and segmental atelectasis and/or consolidation. Two months later one of the radiologists re-coded a random sample of these films (n = 117, 20 %). Agreement was assessed by the kappa statistic and by proportions of agreement for normality and abnormality. Results. The reported incidence of focal atelectasis was low (5-6 %). Focal changes of any nature were found in 21-26 % of films. Inter-observer agreement was fair to moderate (kappa = 0.25-0.44). Intra-observer agreement was mostly moderate to good (kappa = 0.38-0.66). Conclusion. The poor inter-observer agreement for the diagnosis of pulmonary parenchymal abnormalities on chest radiographs of neonates receiving intensive care suggests that abnormalities should be described rather than diagnoses given or that a list of differential diagnoses be offered. When research involves radiographic interpretation, the potential lack of consistency in reporting abnormalities must be borne in mind. (orig.)

Inter- and intrareader variability in the interpretation of two radiographic classification systems for juvenile rheumatoid arthritis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doria, Andrea S.; Castro, Claudio C. de; Sernik, Renato A.; Vitule, Luis F.; Arantes, Paula R.; Lucato, Leandro; Germano, Marco A.N.; Cerri, Giovanni G.; Kiss, Maria Helena B.; Silva, Carlos H.M.; Zerbini, Cristiano A.F.

2003-01-01

To evaluate the inter- and intrareader variability for interpretation of a modified Larsen's radiographic classification system for juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (JRA) focused on osteochondral lesions and a conventional Larsen's classification system, compared to a reference MR scoring system of corresponding images. Seventy-five radiographs of 60 children with JRA, performed within a short interval of time from the MR examinations, were independently evaluated by three experienced radiologists, three diagnostic imaging residents and three rheumatologists, in two separate sessions, according to the two different classification methods, blinded to the corresponding MR images. The inter- and intrareader concordance rates between the two radiographic classification systems and the MR-related radiographs were respectively poor and poor/moderate. The interobserver range of weighted kappa values for the conventional and the modified Larsen's system respectively was 0.25-0.37 vs 0.19-0.39 for radiologists, 0.25-0.37 vs 0.18-0.30 for residents and 0.19-0.51 vs 0.17-0.29 for rheumatologists. The intrareader rate ranged from 0.17-0.55 for radiologists, 0.2-0.56 for residents, and 0.14-0.59 for rheumatologists. Although the proposal of a new radiographic classification system for JRA focused on osteochondral abnormalities sounds promising, the low inter- and intrareader concordance rates with an MR-related radiographic system makes the clinical applicability of such a radiographic system less suitable. (orig.)

Inter-annual variability of air mass and acidified pollutants transboundary exchange in the north-eastern part of the EANET region

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Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2016-04-01

]. This dataset provides comprehensive monthly statistics on the wind meteorological regime at the stations of interest in a given range of altitudes. Based on long-term source observational data, the dataset is assumed being representative up to date, which allowed us to estimate monthly pollutant fluxes for the years 2006-2008 over segments of the Russian border and its whole [4]. In the current phase of our study, we calculate the inter-annual variations in the transboundary pollutant fluxes for 2000-2012 using longer-term EANET data and transient changes in air mass fluxes derived from the meteorological wind fields from ERA INTERIM re-analysis [5]. We gauge similar average air transport terms and dynamics from the statistical and reanalysis data, which bolsters our earlier findings. The reanalysis data, being naturally more variable, convolutes the variations in net air fluxes and pollutant concentrations into several episodes we emphasise, in addition to the integral pollutant transfer terms we estimate. At last, we discuss on the possibility of climate change effect on the flux strength and dynamics together with regional air quality tendencies in North-East Asia countries. References: Izrael, Yu.A., et al.: Monitoring of the Transboundary Air Pollution Transport. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 303 p., 187 (in Russian). Akimoto H., et al.: Periodic Report of the State of Acid Deposition in East Asia. Part I: Regional Assessment. EANET-UNEP/RRC.AP-ADORC, 258 p., 2006. Brukhan, F.F.: Aeroclimatic Characteristics of the Mean Winds over USSR (ed. Ignatjushina E.N.). Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow, 54 p., 1984 (in Russian). Gromov S.A., et al.: First-order evaluation of transboundary pollution fluxes in areas of EANET stations in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. EANET Science Bulletin, vol. 3, pp. 195-203, 2013. Dee, D. P., et al.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi: 10

Intra and inter-annual structure of zooplankton communities in floodplain lakes: a long-term ecological research study

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Nadson R. Simões

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Water flow management has significantly changed the natural dynamic of floods, which are responsible for the structure and dynamic of aquatic communities in river-floodplain systems. With the aim to elaborate a conceptual framework that describes the main ecological factors associated with zooplankton community structure in the Upper Paraná River, we investigated the mechanisms that regulate the communities structure and their response to inter-annual and hydro-sedimentological variations in the floodplain and the biological factors associated with species abundance in those communities. For this we conducted samplings every six months (potamophase in March and limnophase in September to characterize intra and inter-annual variations in community structure between 2000 and 2008. The intra-annual differences on the species richness, abundance, Shannon diversity index, and evenness, were conducted using Bayesian procedures to show probabilistic predictions of the data fit to main variation sources. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMDS, multi-response permutation procedure (MRPP, and indicator species analysis (IndVal were run to assess and characterize the seasonality of the community structure. During high water (potamophase, hydrologic connectivity favoured exchange and dispersal of species in some lakes, increasing local diversity; during low water (limnophase, higher local productivity favoured opportunistic taxa, increasing species dominance and decreasing local diversity. Food resources and density of small-size fish were biological factors associated with the seasonal dynamic of the zooplankton community; these factors were dependent on hydrosedimentological phase (potamophase or limnophase. Water levels and limnological modifications related to water flow management have promoted replacement and impoverishment of aquatic biota in affected lakes and have indicated the ecological importance of a natural dynamic flood, which displays

Assessing inter- and intra-individual cognitive variability in patients at risk for cognitive impairment: the case of minimal hepatic encephalopathy.

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Bisiacchi, Patrizia; Cona, Giorgia; Tarantino, Vincenza; Schiff, Sami; Montagnese, Sara; Amodio, Piero; Capizzi, Giovanna

2014-12-01

Recent evidence reveals that inter- and intra-individual variability significantly affects cognitive performance in a number of neuropsychological pathologies. We applied a flexible family of statistical models to elucidate the contribution of inter- and intra-individual variables on cognitive functioning in healthy volunteers and patients at risk for hepatic encephalopathy (HE). Sixty-five volunteers (32 patients with cirrhosis and 33 healthy volunteers) were assessed by means of the Inhibitory Control Task (ICT). A Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) was fitted for jointly modeling the mean and the intra-variability of Reaction Times (RTs) as a function of socio-demographic and task related covariates. Furthermore, a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) was fitted for modeling accuracy. When controlling for the covariates, patients without minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) did not differ from patients with MHE in the low-demanding condition, both in terms of RTs and accuracy. Moreover, they showed a significant decline in accuracy compared to the control group. Compared to patients with MHE, patients without MHE showed faster RTs and higher accuracy only in the high-demanding condition. The results revealed that the application of GAMLSS and GLMM models are able to capture subtle cognitive alterations, previously not detected, in patients' subclinical pathologies.

Synoptic meteorological modes of variability for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality in major metropolitan regions of China

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Leung, Danny M.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Moch, Jonathan M.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Shen, Lu; Martin, Randall V.

2018-05-01

In his study, we use a combination of multivariate statistical methods to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with local meteorology and synoptic weather patterns in different regions of China across various timescales. Using June 2014 to May 2017 daily total PM2.5 observations from ˜ 1500 monitors, all deseasonalized and detrended to focus on synoptic-scale variations, we find strong correlations of daily PM2.5 with all selected meteorological variables (e.g., positive correlation with temperature but negative correlation with sea-level pressure throughout China; positive and negative correlation with relative humidity in northern and southern China, respectively). The spatial patterns suggest that the apparent correlations with individual meteorological variables may arise from common association with synoptic systems. Based on a principal component analysis of 1998-2017 meteorological data to diagnose distinct meteorological modes that dominate synoptic weather in four major regions of China, we find strong correlations of PM2.5 with several synoptic modes that explain 10 to 40 % of daily PM2.5 variability. These modes include monsoonal flows and cold frontal passages in northern and central China associated with the Siberian High, onshore flows in eastern China, and frontal rainstorms in southern China. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region as a case study, we further find strong interannual correlations of regionally averaged satellite-derived annual mean PM2.5 with annual mean relative humidity (RH; positive) and springtime fluctuation frequency of the Siberian High (negative). We apply the resulting PM2.5-to-climate sensitivities to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections to predict future PM2.5 by the 2050s due to climate change, and find a modest decrease of ˜ 0.5 µg m-3 in annual mean PM2.5 in the BTH region due to more frequent cold frontal ventilation

Spatial variability and trends of seasonal snowmelt processes over Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

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Arndt, S.; Haas, C.

2017-12-01

Snow is one of the key drivers determining the seasonal energy and mass budgets of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Here, we analyze radar backscatter time series from the European Remote Sensing Satellites (ERS)-1 and-2 scatterometers, from the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT), and from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) in order to observe the regional and inter-annual variability of Antarctic snowmelt processes from 1992 to 2014. On perennial ice, seasonal backscatter changes show two different snowmelt stages: A weak backscatter rise indicating the initial warming and metamorphosis of the snowpack (pre-melt), followed by a rapid rise indicating the onset of internal snowmelt and thaw-freeze cycles (snowmelt). In contrast, similar seasonal backscatter cycles are absent on seasonal ice, preventing the periodic retrieval of spring/summer transitions. This may be due to the dominance of ice bottom melt over snowmelt, leading to flooding and ice disintegration before strong snowmelt sets in. Resulting snowmelt onset dates on perennial sea ice show the expected latitudinal gradient from early melt onsets (mid-November) in the northern Weddell Sea towards late (end-December) or even absent snowmelt conditions further south. This result is likely related to seasonal variations in solar shortwave radiation (absorption). In addition, observations with different microwave frequencies allow to detect changing snow properties at different depths. We show that short wavelengths of passive microwave observations indicate earlier pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates than longer wavelength scatterometer observations, in response to earlier warming of upper snow layers compared to lower snow layers. Similarly, pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates retrieved from Ku-Band radars were earlier by an average of 11 and 23 days, respectively, than those retrieved from C-Band. This time difference was used to correct melt onset dates retrieved from Ku-Band to compile a consistent time series from

Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and support vector machine analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Oguntunde, Philip G.; Lischeid, Gunnar; Dietrich, Ottfried

2018-03-01

This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease ( P 1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.

Exploring intra- and inter-reader variability in uni-dimensional, bi-dimensional, and volumetric measurements of solid tumors on CT scans reconstructed at different slice intervals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Binsheng; Tan, Yongqiang; Bell, Daniel J.; Marley, Sarah E.; Guo, Pingzhen; Mann, Helen; Scott, Marietta L.J.; Schwartz, Lawrence H.; Ghiorghiu, Dana C.

2013-01-01

Objective: Understanding magnitudes of variability when measuring tumor size may be valuable in improving detection of tumor change and thus evaluating tumor response to therapy in clinical trials and care. Our study explored intra- and inter-reader variability of tumor uni-dimensional (1D), bi-dimensional (2D), and volumetric (VOL) measurements using manual and computer-aided methods (CAM) on CT scans reconstructed at different slice intervals. Materials and methods: Raw CT data from 30 patients enrolled in oncology clinical trials was reconstructed at 5, 2.5, and 1.25 mm slice intervals. 118 lesions in the lungs, liver, and lymph nodes were analyzed. For each lesion, two independent radiologists manually and, separately, using computer software, measured the maximum diameter (1D), maximum perpendicular diameter, and volume (CAM only). One of them blindly repeated the measurements. Intra- and inter-reader variability for the manual method and CAM were analyzed using linear mixed-effects models and Bland–Altman method. Results: For the three slice intervals, the maximum coefficients of variation for manual intra-/inter-reader variability were 6.9%/9.0% (1D) and 12.3%/18.0% (2D), and for CAM were 5.4%/9.3% (1D), 11.3%/18.8% (2D) and 9.3%/18.0% (VOL). Maximal 95% reference ranges for the percentage difference in intra-reader measurements for manual 1D and 2D, and CAM VOL were (−15.5%, 25.8%), (−27.1%, 51.6%), and (−22.3%, 33.6%), respectively. Conclusions: Variability in measuring the diameter and volume of solid tumors, manually and by CAM, is affected by CT slice interval. The 2.5 mm slice interval provides the least measurement variability. Among the three techniques, 2D has the greatest measurement variability compared to 1D and 3D

Assessing variability in chemical acute toxicity of unionid mussels: Influence of intra- and inter-laboratory testing, life stage, and species - SETAC Abstract

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We developed a toxicity database for unionid mussels to examine the extent of intra- and inter-laboratory variability in acute toxicity tests with mussel larvae (glochidia) and juveniles; the extent of differential sensitivity of the two life stages; and the variation in sensitiv...

Time dependent analysis of assay comparability: a novel approach to understand intra- and inter-site variability over time

Science.gov (United States)

Winiwarter, Susanne; Middleton, Brian; Jones, Barry; Courtney, Paul; Lindmark, Bo; Page, Ken M.; Clark, Alan; Landqvist, Claire

2015-09-01

We demonstrate here a novel use of statistical tools to study intra- and inter-site assay variability of five early drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics in vitro assays over time. Firstly, a tool for process control is presented. It shows the overall assay variability but allows also the following of changes due to assay adjustments and can additionally highlight other, potentially unexpected variations. Secondly, we define the minimum discriminatory difference/ratio to support projects to understand how experimental values measured at different sites at a given time can be compared. Such discriminatory values are calculated for 3 month periods and followed over time for each assay. Again assay modifications, especially assay harmonization efforts, can be noted. Both the process control tool and the variability estimates are based on the results of control compounds tested every time an assay is run. Variability estimates for a limited set of project compounds were computed as well and found to be comparable. This analysis reinforces the need to consider assay variability in decision making, compound ranking and in silico modeling.

Patterns of variability of the superficial temperatures of the sea in the Colombian Caribbean coast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernal, Gladys; Poveda, German; Roldan, Paola; Andrade, Carlos

2006-01-01

The space - time variability of sea surface temperature (SST) along the Colombian coastal Caribbean zone was analyzed with monthly time series spanning the period 1982- 2000. Analyses included the spatial variability associated with the annual cycle, and inter annual time scales associated with el Nino southern oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as well as long-term trends. Analyses were included to study two tropical low-level atmospheric jets affecting the climatology of the northwestern corner of South America (the so-called Choco and San Andres low level jets). Two separate regions have been found along the Caribbean sea to exhibit quite different climatic behavior: the southwestern region with a warm pool directly related to panama Colombia gyre, and the northeastern region with a cold pool related to the Guajira upwelling system

Estimation of new production in the North Sea: consequences for temporal and spatial variability of phytoplankton

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Richardson, Katherine; Bo Pedersen, Flemming

1998-01-01

By coupling knowledge of oceanographic processes and phytoplankton responses to light and nutrient availability, we estimate a total potential new (sensu Dugdale and Goering,1967) production for the North Sea of approximately 15.6 million tons C per year. In a typical year, about 40......% of this production will be associated with the spring bloom in the surface waters of the seasonally stratified (central and northern) North Sea. About 40% is predicted to occur in the coastal waters while the remaining new production is predicted to take place in sub-surface chlorophyll peaks occuring in association...... with fronts in the North Sea during summer month. By considering the inter-annual variation in heat, wind and nutrient availability (light and tidal energy input are treated as non-varying from year to year), the inter-annual variability in the new production occuring in these different regions is estimated...

Annual report June 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

This annual report reviews the activities of the National Accelerator Centre until June 1988. The 200 MeV cyclotron facility, the Pretoria cyclotron facility and the Van De Graaff facility are discussed in detail. Aspects of the 200 MeV cyclotron facility examined are, inter alia: the injector cyclotrons, the separated-sector cyclotron, the control system, the beam transport system and radioisotope production. Separate abstracts were prepared for the various subdivisions contained in this annual report

The Impact of Strong Climate Change on Inter-state Balancing in a Fully-renewable Simplified European Electricity System

Science.gov (United States)

Wohland, Jan; Witthaut, Dirk

2017-04-01

Electricity systems with a high penetration of renewables are strongly affected by weather patterns. Due to the variability of the climate system, a substantial fraction of energy supply needs to be provided by dispatchable power plants even if the consumption is on average balanced by renewables (e.g. Rodriguez et al. [2014]). In an interconnected system like the European electricity grid, benefits can arise from balancing generation mismatches spatially as long as overproduction in one region coincides with lack of generation in another region. These benefits might change as the climate changes and we thus investigate alterations of correlations between wind timeseries and Backup energy requirements. Our analysis is based on a five member model-ensemble from the EUROCORDEX initiative and we focus on onshore wind energy. We use the highest temporal (3h) and spatial (0.11°) resolution available to capture the intermittent and spatially diverse nature of renewable generation. In view of inter-model spread and other uncertainties, we use the strong climate change scenario rcp8.5 in order to obtain a high signal-to-noise ratio. We argue that rcp8.5 is best suited to reveal interesting interactions between climate change and renewable electricity system despite the fact that is in contradiction to the UNFCCC temperature goals (e.g. Schleussner et al. [2016]). We report spatially inhomogeneous alterations of correlations. In particular, we find increasing correlations between central and northern European states and decreasing correlations at the south-western and south-eastern margins of Europe. This hints to a lowering of balancing potentials within central and northern Europe due to climate change. A possible explanation might be associated to polar amplification and increasing frequencies of blocking events (Coumou [2015]). Moreover, we compute wind energy generation using a single-turbine model and a semi-random deployment procedure as developed in Monforti et al

An inter-battery factor analysis of the comrey personality scales and the 16 personality factor questionnaire

OpenAIRE

Gideon P. de Bruin

2000-01-01

The scores of 700 Afrikaans-speaking university students on the Comrey Personality Scales and the 16 Personality Factor Questionnaire were subjected to an inter-battery factor analysis. This technique uses only the correlations between two sets of variables and reveals only the factors that they have in common. Three of the Big Five personality factors were revealed, namely Extroversion, Neuroticism and Conscientiousness. However, the Conscientiousness factor contained a relatively strong uns...

Systematic impact assessment on inter-basin water transfer projects of the Hanjiang River Basin in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yanlai; Guo, Shenglian; Hong, Xingjun; Chang, Fi-John

2017-10-01

China's inter-basin water transfer projects have gained increasing attention in recent years. This study proposes an intelligent water allocation methodology for establishing optimal inter-basin water allocation schemes and assessing the impacts of water transfer projects on water-demanding sectors in the Hanjiang River Basin of China. We first analyze water demands for water allocation purpose, and then search optimal water allocation strategies for maximizing the water supply to water-demanding sectors and mitigating the negative impacts by using the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (AGA), respectively. Lastly, the performance indexes of the water supply system are evaluated under different scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects. The results indicate that: the AGA with adaptive crossover and mutation operators could increase the average annual water transfer from the Hanjiang River by 0.79 billion m3 (8.8%), the average annual water transfer from the Changjiang River by 0.18 billion m3 (6.5%), and the average annual hydropower generation by 0.49 billion kW h (5.4%) as well as reduce the average annual unmet water demand by 0.40 billion m3 (9.7%), as compared with the those of the SGA. We demonstrate that the proposed intelligent water allocation schemes can significantly mitigate the negative impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the reliability, vulnerability and resilience of water supply to the demanding sectors in water-supplying basins. This study has a direct bearing on more intelligent and effectual water allocation management under various scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects.

Inter- and Intra-Observer Variability in Prostate Definition With Tissue Harmonic and Brightness Mode Imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandhu, Gurpreet Kaur; Dunscombe, Peter; Meyer, Tyler; Pavamani, Simon; Khan, Rao

2012-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this study was to compare the relative utility of tissue harmonic (H) and brightness (B) transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) images of the prostate by studying interobserver and intraobserver variation in prostate delineation. Methods and Materials: Ten patients with early-stage disease were randomly selected. TRUS images of prostates were acquired using B and H modes. The prostates on all images were contoured by an experienced radiation oncologist (RO) and five equally trained observers. The observers were blinded to information regarding patient and imaging mode. The volumes of prostate glands and areas of midgland slices were calculated. Volumes contoured were compared among the observers and between observer group and RO. Contours on one patient were repeated five times by four observers to evaluate the intraobserver variability. Results: A one-sample Student t-test showed the volumes outlined by five observers are in agreement (p > 0.05) with the RO. Paired Student t-test showed prostate volumes (p = 0.008) and midgland areas (p = 0.006) with H mode were significantly smaller than that with B mode. Two-factor analysis of variances showed significant interobserver variability (p < 0.001) in prostate volumes and areas. Inter- and intraobserver consistency was quantified as the standard deviation of mean volumes and areas, and concordance indices. It was found that for small glands (≤35 cc) H mode provided greater interobserver consistency; however, for large glands (≥35 cc), B mode provided more consistent estimates. Conclusions: H mode provided superior inter- and intraobserver agreement in prostate volume definition for small to medium prostates. In large glands, H mode does not exhibit any additional advantage. Although harmonic imaging has not proven advantageous for all cases, its utilization seems to be judicious for small prostates.

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

Science.gov (United States)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.

Science.gov (United States)

de Jong, Pieter; Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo Andrade

2018-09-01

By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25-50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961-90 long-term average. Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been below its long-term average every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be even more severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC high emissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Model of the Heart Accounting for Inter-Individual Variability: Development and Performance Verification.

Science.gov (United States)

Tylutki, Zofia; Mendyk, Aleksander; Polak, Sebastian

2018-04-01

Modern model-based approaches to cardiac safety and efficacy assessment require accurate drug concentration-effect relationship establishment. Thus, knowledge of the active concentration of drugs in heart tissue is desirable along with inter-subject variability influence estimation. To that end, we developed a mechanistic physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of the heart. The models were described with literature-derived parameters and written in R, v.3.4.0. Five parameters were estimated. The model was fitted to amitriptyline and nortriptyline concentrations after an intravenous infusion of amitriptyline. The cardiac model consisted of 5 compartments representing the pericardial fluid, heart extracellular water, and epicardial intracellular, midmyocardial intracellular, and endocardial intracellular fluids. Drug cardiac metabolism, passive diffusion, active efflux, and uptake were included in the model as mechanisms involved in the drug disposition within the heart. The model accounted for inter-individual variability. The estimates of optimized parameters were within physiological ranges. The model performance was verified by simulating 5 clinical studies of amitriptyline intravenous infusion, and the simulated pharmacokinetic profiles agreed with clinical data. The results support the model feasibility. The proposed structure can be tested with the goal of improving the patient-specific model-based cardiac safety assessment and offers a framework for predicting cardiac concentrations of various xenobiotics. Copyright © 2018 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MRI assessment of bone marrow in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: intra- and inter-observer variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tanturri de Horatio, Laura; Barbuti, Domenico; Toma, Paolo [Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesu, Department of Radiology, Rome (Italy); Damasio, Maria Beatrice [Ospedale G. Gaslini, Department of Radiology, Genoa (Italy); Bracaglia, Claudia [Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesu, Department of Paediatrics, Rome (Italy); Lambot-Juhan, Karen [Hopital Necker-Enfants Malades, Department of Radiology, Paris (France); Boavida, Peter [Great Ormond Street Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Ording Mueller, Lil-Sofie [University Hospital North Norway, Department of Radiology, Tromsoe (Norway); Malattia, Clara [Ospedale G. Gaslini, Department of Pediatrics, Genoa (Italy); Rava, Lucilla [Ospedale Pediatrico Bambino Gesu, Department of Epidemiology, Rome (Italy); Rosendahl, Karen [Great Ormond Street Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Haukeland University Hospital, Department of Pediatric Radiology, Bergen (Norway)

2012-06-15

Bone marrow oedema (BMO) is included in MRI-based scoring systems of disease activity in adults with rheumatoid arthritis. Similar systems in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) are lacking. To assess the reproducibility in a multi-centre setting of an MRI BMO scoring system in children with JIA. Seventy-six wrist MRIs were read twice, independently, by two experienced paediatric radiologists. BMO was defined as ill-defined lesions within the trabecular bone, returning high and low signal on T2- and T1-weighted images respectively, with or without contrast enhancement. BMO extension was scored for each of 14 bones at the wrist from 0 (none) to 3 (extensive). The intra-observer agreement was moderate to excellent, with weighted kappa ranging from 0.85 to 1.0 and 0.49 to 1.0 (readers 1 and 2 respectively), while the inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.41 to 0.79. The intra- and inter-observer intraclass correlation coefficients were excellent and satisfactory, respectively. The scoring system was reliable and may be used for grading bone marrow abnormality in JIA. The relatively large variability in aggregate scores, particularly between readers, underscores the need for thorough standardisation. (orig.)

MRI assessment of bone marrow in children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: intra- and inter-observer variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanturri de Horatio, Laura; Barbuti, Domenico; Toma, Paolo; Damasio, Maria Beatrice; Bracaglia, Claudia; Lambot-Juhan, Karen; Boavida, Peter; Ording Mueller, Lil-Sofie; Malattia, Clara; Rava, Lucilla; Rosendahl, Karen

2012-01-01

Bone marrow oedema (BMO) is included in MRI-based scoring systems of disease activity in adults with rheumatoid arthritis. Similar systems in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) are lacking. To assess the reproducibility in a multi-centre setting of an MRI BMO scoring system in children with JIA. Seventy-six wrist MRIs were read twice, independently, by two experienced paediatric radiologists. BMO was defined as ill-defined lesions within the trabecular bone, returning high and low signal on T2- and T1-weighted images respectively, with or without contrast enhancement. BMO extension was scored for each of 14 bones at the wrist from 0 (none) to 3 (extensive). The intra-observer agreement was moderate to excellent, with weighted kappa ranging from 0.85 to 1.0 and 0.49 to 1.0 (readers 1 and 2 respectively), while the inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.41 to 0.79. The intra- and inter-observer intraclass correlation coefficients were excellent and satisfactory, respectively. The scoring system was reliable and may be used for grading bone marrow abnormality in JIA. The relatively large variability in aggregate scores, particularly between readers, underscores the need for thorough standardisation. (orig.)

Nitrogen deposition outweighs climatic variability in driving annual growth rate of canopy beech trees: Evidence from long-term growth reconstruction across a geographic gradient.

Science.gov (United States)

Gentilesca, Tiziana; Rita, Angelo; Brunetti, Michele; Giammarchi, Francesco; Leonardi, Stefano; Magnani, Federico; van Noije, Twan; Tonon, Giustino; Borghetti, Marco

2018-07-01

In this study, we investigated the role of climatic variability and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in driving long-term tree growth in canopy beech trees along a geographic gradient in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula, from the Alps to the southern Apennines. We sampled dominant trees at different developmental stages (from young to mature tree cohorts, with tree ages spanning from 35 to 160 years) and used stem analysis to infer historic reconstruction of tree volume and dominant height. Annual growth volume (G V ) and height (G H ) variability were related to annual variability in model simulated atmospheric nitrogen deposition and site-specific climatic variables, (i.e. mean annual temperature, total annual precipitation, mean growing period temperature, total growing period precipitation, and standard precipitation evapotranspiration index) and atmospheric CO 2 concentration, including tree cambial age among growth predictors. Generalized additive models (GAM), linear mixed-effects models (LMM), and Bayesian regression models (BRM) were independently employed to assess explanatory variables. The main results from our study were as follows: (i) tree age was the main explanatory variable for long-term growth variability; (ii) GAM, LMM, and BRM results consistently indicated climatic variables and CO 2 effects on G V and G H were weak, therefore evidence of recent climatic variability influence on beech annual growth rates was limited in the montane belt of the Italian peninsula; (iii) instead, significant positive nitrogen deposition (N dep ) effects were repeatedly observed in G V and G H ; the positive effects of N dep on canopy height growth rates, which tended to level off at N dep values greater than approximately 1.0 g m -2  y -1 , were interpreted as positive impacts on forest stand above-ground net productivity at the selected study sites. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A review of factors explaining variability in fentanyl pharmacokinetics; focus on implications for cancer patients

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuip, E.J.M.; Zandvliet, M.L.; Koolen, S.L.; Mathijssen, R.H.; Rijt, C.C. van der

2017-01-01

Fentanyl is a strong opioid that is available for various administration routes, and which is widely used to treat cancer-related pain. Many factors influence the fentanyl pharmacokinetics leading to a wide inter- and intrapatient variability. This systematic review summarizes multiple studied

Inter-track interference mitigation with two-dimensional variable equalizer for bit patterned media recording

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yao Wang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The increased track density in bit patterned media recording (BPMR causes increased inter-track interference (ITI, which degrades the bit error rate (BER performance. In order to mitigate the effect of the ITI, signals from multiple tracks can be equalized by a 2D equalizer with 1D target. Usually, the 2D fixed equalizer coefficients are obtained by using a pseudo-random bit sequence (PRBS for training. In this study, a 2D variable equalizer is proposed, where various sets of 2D equalizer coefficients are predetermined and stored for different ITI patterns besides the usual PRBS training. For data detection, as the ITI patterns are unknown in the first global iteration, the main and adjacent tracks are equalized with the conventional 2D fixed equalizer, detected with Bahl-Cocke-Jelinek-Raviv (BCJR detector and decoded with low-density parity-check (LDPC decoder. Then using the estimated bit information from main and adjacent tracks, the ITI pattern for each island of the main track can be estimated and the corresponding 2D variable equalizers are used to better equalize the bits on the main track. This process is executed iteratively by feeding back the main track information. Simulation results indicate that for both single-track and two-track detection, the proposed 2D variable equalizer can achieve better BER and frame error rate (FER compared to that with the 2D fixed equalizer.

TRANSVERSE MODES FOR FLAT INTER-BUNCH WAKES*

CERN Document Server

Burov, A

2013-01-01

If inter-bunch wake fields are flat, i.e. their variations over a bunch length can be neglected, all coherent modes have the same coupled-bunch structure, provided the bunches can be treated as identical by their inner qualities (train theorem). If a flat feedback is strong enough, the transverse modes are single-bunch, provided the inter-bunch wakes are also flat (damper theorem).

Relationship between rice yield and climate variables in southwest Nigeria using multiple linear regression and support vector machine analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Oguntunde, Philip G; Lischeid, Gunnar; Dietrich, Ottfried

2018-03-01

This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease (P  1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.

Cross-Regional Assessment Of Coupling And Variability In Precipitation-Runoff Relationships

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, S. K.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.; Buttle, J. M.; Laudon, H.; McDonnell, J. J.; McGuire, K. J.; Seibert, J.; Shanley, J. B.

2011-12-01

The higher mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the zero-degree isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international inter-catchment comparison program North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). For this study, 8 catchments with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess the seasonal coupling of rainfall and runoff and the memory effect of runoff events on the hydrograph at different time scales. To assess the coupling and synchroneity of precipitation, continuous wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence were used. Wavelet spectra identified the relative importance of both annual versus seasonal flows while wavelet coherence was applied to identify over different time scales along the 10-year window how well precipitation and runoff were coupled. For example, while on a given day, precipitation may be closely coupled to runoff, a wet year may not necessarily be a high runoff year in catchments with large storage. Assessing different averaging periods in the variation of daily flows highlights the importance of seasonality in runoff response and the relative influence of rain versus snowmelt on flow magnitude and variability. Wet catchments with limited seasonal precipitation variability (Strontian, Girnock) have precipitation signals more closely coupled with runoff, whereas dryer catchments dominated by snow (Wolf Creek, Krycklan) have strongly coupling only during freshet. Most catchments with highly seasonal precipitation show strong intermittent coupling during their wet season. At

Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Luu, Q.-H.; Babu, M.T.

www.ocean-sci.net/9/293/2013/ doi:10.5194/os-9-293-2013 © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Advances in Geosciences O pen A ccess Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences O pen A ccess Annales Geophysicae O pen A... Sci., 9, 293–300, 2013 www.ocean-sci.net/9/293/2013/ P. Tkalich et al.: Sea level in Singapore Strait 295 likely to be the cause for modulating the inter-annual sea level variability associated with ENSO. On the Sunda Shelf and particularly in SS, our...

Hydroclimate variability: comparing dendroclimatic records and future GCM scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapp, S.

2008-01-01

Drought events of the 20th Century in western North America have been linked to teleconnections that influence climate variability on inter-annual and decadal to multi-decadal time scales. These teleconnections represent the changes sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical and extra-tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean, ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), respectively, and the Atlantic Ocean, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and also to atmospheric circulation patterns (PNA: Pacific-North American). A network of precipitation sensitive tree-ring chronologies from Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan and NWT highly correlate to the climate moisture index (CMI) of precipitation potential evapotranspiration (P-PET), thus, capturing the long-term hydroclimatic variability of the region. Reconstructions of annual and seasonal CMI identify drought events in previous centuries that are more extreme in magnitude, frequency and duration than recorded during the instrumental period. Variability in the future climate will include these natural climate cycles as well as modulations of these cycles affected by human induced global warming. The proxy hydroclimate records derived from tree-rings present information on decadal and multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability for the past millennium; therefore, providing a unique opportunity to validate the climate variability simulated by GCMs (Global Climate Models) on longer time scales otherwise constrained by the shorter observation records. Developing scenarios of future variability depends: 1) on our understanding of the interaction of these teleconnection; and, 2) to identify climate models that are able to accurately simulate the hydroclimatic variability as detected in the instrumental and proxy records. (author)

Growing Region Segmentation Software (GRES) for quantitative magnetic resonance imaging of multiple sclerosis: intra- and inter-observer agreement variability: a comparison with manual contouring method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parodi, Roberto C.; Sardanelli, Francesco; Renzetti, Paolo; Rosso, Elisabetta; Losacco, Caterina; Ferrari, Alessandra; Levrero, Fabrizio; Pilot, Alberto; Inglese, Matilde; Mancardi, Giovanni L.

2002-01-01

Lesion area measurement in multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the key points in evaluating the natural history and in monitoring the efficacy of treatments. This study was performed to check the intra- and inter-observer agreement variability of a locally developed Growing Region Segmentation Software (GRES), comparing them to those obtained using manual contouring (MC). From routine 1.5-T MRI study of clinically definite multiple sclerosis patients, 36 lesions seen on proton-density-weighted images (PDWI) and 36 enhancing lesion on Gd-DTPA-BMA-enhanced T1-weighted images (Gd-T1WI) were randomly chosen and were evaluated by three observers. The mean range of lesion size was 9.9-536.0 mm 2 on PDWI and 3.6-57.2 mm 2 on Gd-T1WI. The median intra- and inter-observer agreement were, respectively, 97.1 and 90.0% using GRES on PDWI, 81.0 and 70.0% using MC on PDWI, 88.8 and 80.0% using GRES on Gd-T1WI, and 85.8 and 70.0% using MC on Gd-T1WI. The intra- and inter-observer agreements were significantly greater for GRES compared with MC (P<0.0001 and P=0.0023, respectively) for PDWI, while no difference was found between GRES an MC for Gd-T1WI. The intra-observer variability for GRES was significantly lower on both PDWI (P=0.0001) and Gd-T1WI (P=0.0067), whereas for MC the same result was found only for PDWI (P=0.0147). These data indicate that GRES reduces both the intra- and the inter-observer variability in assessing the area of MS lesions on PDWI and may prove useful in multicentre studies. (orig.)

Variability of temperature, evaporation, insolation and sea level pressure in East Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camerlengo, A.L.; Mohd Nasir Saadon; Lim You Rang; Nhakhorn Somchit; Mohd Mahatir Osman

1999-01-01

The interrelation between global warming and certain meteorological parameters - temperature, evaporation, sea level pressure and isolation (hours of sunshine) - in East Malaysia is addressed in this study. The inter-annual climatic variability mainly due to ENSO warm events, is also investigated. The study of the monthly distribution of both evaporation and insolation in East Malaysia (i.e., the Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak, both of them situated in the northern part of the island of Borneo) is also covered in this paper (author)

Inter-Labeler and Intra-Labeler Variability of Condition Severity Classification Models Using Active and Passive Learning Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Nissim, Nir; Shahar, Yuval; Boland, Mary Regina; Tatonetti, Nicholas P; Elovici, Yuval; Hripcsak, George; Moskovitch, Robert

2018-01-01

Background and Objectives Labeling instances by domain experts for classification is often time consuming and expensive. To reduce such labeling efforts, we had proposed the application of active learning (AL) methods, introduced our CAESAR-ALE framework for classifying the severity of clinical conditions, and shown its significant reduction of labeling efforts. The use of any of three AL methods (one well known [SVM-Margin], and two that we introduced [Exploitation and Combination_XA]) significantly reduced (by 48% to 64%) condition labeling efforts, compared to standard passive (random instance-selection) SVM learning. Furthermore, our new AL methods achieved maximal accuracy using 12% fewer labeled cases than the SVM-Margin AL method. However, because labelers have varying levels of expertise, a major issue associated with learning methods, and AL methods in particular, is how to best to use the labeling provided by a committee of labelers. First, we wanted to know, based on the labelers’ learning curves, whether using AL methods (versus standard passive learning methods) has an effect on the Intra-labeler variability (within the learning curve of each labeler) and inter-labeler variability (among the learning curves of different labelers). Then, we wanted to examine the effect of learning (either passively or actively) from the labels created by the majority consensus of a group of labelers. Methods We used our CAESAR-ALE framework for classifying the severity of clinical conditions, the three AL methods and the passive learning method, as mentioned above, to induce the classifications models. We used a dataset of 516 clinical conditions and their severity labeling, represented by features aggregated from the medical records of 1.9 million patients treated at Columbia University Medical Center. We analyzed the variance of the classification performance within (intra-labeler), and especially among (inter-labeler) the classification models that were induced by

Inter-labeler and intra-labeler variability of condition severity classification models using active and passive learning methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Nissim, Nir; Shahar, Yuval; Elovici, Yuval; Hripcsak, George; Moskovitch, Robert

2017-09-01

Labeling instances by domain experts for classification is often time consuming and expensive. To reduce such labeling efforts, we had proposed the application of active learning (AL) methods, introduced our CAESAR-ALE framework for classifying the severity of clinical conditions, and shown its significant reduction of labeling efforts. The use of any of three AL methods (one well known [SVM-Margin], and two that we introduced [Exploitation and Combination_XA]) significantly reduced (by 48% to 64%) condition labeling efforts, compared to standard passive (random instance-selection) SVM learning. Furthermore, our new AL methods achieved maximal accuracy using 12% fewer labeled cases than the SVM-Margin AL method. However, because labelers have varying levels of expertise, a major issue associated with learning methods, and AL methods in particular, is how to best to use the labeling provided by a committee of labelers. First, we wanted to know, based on the labelers' learning curves, whether using AL methods (versus standard passive learning methods) has an effect on the Intra-labeler variability (within the learning curve of each labeler) and inter-labeler variability (among the learning curves of different labelers). Then, we wanted to examine the effect of learning (either passively or actively) from the labels created by the majority consensus of a group of labelers. We used our CAESAR-ALE framework for classifying the severity of clinical conditions, the three AL methods and the passive learning method, as mentioned above, to induce the classifications models. We used a dataset of 516 clinical conditions and their severity labeling, represented by features aggregated from the medical records of 1.9 million patients treated at Columbia University Medical Center. We analyzed the variance of the classification performance within (intra-labeler), and especially among (inter-labeler) the classification models that were induced by using the labels provided by seven

Diagnostic of annual cycle and effects of the ENSO about the maximum intensity of duration rains between 1 and 24 hours at the Andes of Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poveda, German; Mesa, Oscar; Toro, Vladimir; Agudelo, Paula; Alvarez, Juan F; Arias, Paola; Moreno, Hernan; Salazar, Luis; Vieira, Sara

2002-01-01

We study the distribution of maximum rainfall events during the annual cycle, for storms ranging from 1 to 24-hour in duration; by using information over 51 rain gauges locate at the Colombian Andes. Also, the effects of both phases of ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) are quantified. We found that maximum rainfall intensity events occur during the rainy periods of march-may and September-November. There is a strong similarity between the annual cycle of mean total rainfall and that of the maximum intensities of rainfall over the tropical Andes. This result is quite consistent throughout the three ranges of the Colombian Andes. At inter annual timescales, we found that both phases of ENSO are associated with disturbances of maximum rainfall events; since during La Nina there are more intense precipitation events than during El Nino, overall, for durations longer than 3 hours, rainfall intensity gets reduced by one order of magnitude with respect to shorter durations (1-3 hours). The most extreme recorded rainfall events are apparently not associated with the annual and inter annual large scales forcing and appear to be randomly generated by the important role of the land surface atmosphere in the genesis and dynamics of intense storm over central Colombia

Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

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Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC

SU-E-J-176: Characterization of Inter-Fraction Breast Variability and the Implications On Delivered Dose

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sudhoff, M; Lamba, M; Kumar, N; Ward, A; Elson, H [University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH (United States)

2015-06-15

Purpose: To systematically characterize inter-fraction breast variability and determine implications on delivered dose. Methods: Weekly port films were used to characterize breast setup variability. Five evenly spaced representative positions across the contour of each breast were chosen on the electronic port film in reference to graticule, and window and level was set such that the skin surface of the breast was visible. Measurements from the skin surface to treatment field edge were taken on each port film at each position and compared to the planning DRR, quantifying the variability. The systematic measurement technique was repeated for all port films for 20 recently treated breast cancer patients. Measured setup variability for each patient was modeled as a normal distribution. The distribution was randomly sampled from the model and applied as isocentric shifts in the treatment planning computer, representing setup variability for each fraction. Dose was calculated for each shifted fraction and summed to obtain DVHs and BEDs that modeled the dose with daily setup variability. Patients were categorized in to relevant groupings that were chosen to investigate the rigorousness of immobilization types, treatment techniques, and inherent anatomical difficulties. Mean position differences and dosimetric differences were evaluated between planned and delivered doses. Results: The setup variability was found to follow a normal distribution with mean position differences between the DRR and port film between − 8.6–3.5 mm with sigma range of 5.3–9.8 mm. Setup position was not found to be significantly different than zero. The mean seroma or whole breast PTV dosimetric difference, calculated as BED, ranged from a −0.23 to +1.13Gy. Conclusion: A systematic technique to quantify and model setup variability was used to calculate the dose in 20 breast cancer patients including variable setup. No statistically significant PTV or OAR BED differences were found between

Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, H.; Melillo, J.M.; Kicklighter, D.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Helfrich, J.; Moore, B.; Vorosmarty, C.J.

2000-01-01

1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that inter-annual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980-94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year-to-year variations in net carbon storage for this region. 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model's results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9-Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2-Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin. 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability. 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate

Accuracy and inter-observer variability of 3D versus 4D cone-beam CT based image-guidance in SBRT for lung tumors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweeney, Reinhart A; Seubert, Benedikt; Stark, Silke; Homann, Vanessa; Müller, Gerd; Flentje, Michael; Guckenberger, Matthias

2012-01-01

To analyze the accuracy and inter-observer variability of image-guidance (IG) using 3D or 4D cone-beam CT (CBCT) technology in stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for lung tumors. Twenty-one consecutive patients treated with image-guided SBRT for primary and secondary lung tumors were basis for this study. A respiration correlated 4D-CT and planning contours served as reference for all IG techniques. Three IG techniques were performed independently by three radiation oncologists (ROs) and three radiotherapy technicians (RTTs). Image-guidance using respiration correlated 4D-CBCT (IG-4D) with automatic registration of the planning 4D-CT and the verification 4D-CBCT was considered gold-standard. Results were compared with two IG techniques using 3D-CBCT: 1) manual registration of the planning internal target volume (ITV) contour and the motion blurred tumor in the 3D-CBCT (IG-ITV); 2) automatic registration of the planning reference CT image and the verification 3D-CBCT (IG-3D). Image quality of 3D-CBCT and 4D-CBCT images was scored on a scale of 1–3, with 1 being best and 3 being worst quality for visual verification of the IGRT results. Image quality was scored significantly worse for 3D-CBCT compared to 4D-CBCT: the worst score of 3 was given in 19 % and 7.1 % observations, respectively. Significant differences in target localization were observed between 4D-CBCT and 3D-CBCT based IG: compared to the reference of IG-4D, tumor positions differed by 1.9 mm ± 0.9 mm (3D vector) on average using IG-ITV and by 3.6 mm ± 3.2 mm using IG-3D; results of IG-ITV were significantly closer to the reference IG-4D compared to IG-3D. Differences between the 4D-CBCT and 3D-CBCT techniques increased significantly with larger motion amplitude of the tumor; analogously, differences increased with worse 3D-CBCT image quality scores. Inter-observer variability was largest in SI direction and was significantly larger in IG using 3D-CBCT compared to 4D-CBCT: 0.6 mm versus 1.5 mm

Accuracy and inter-observer variability of 3D versus 4D cone-beam CT based image-guidance in SBRT for lung tumors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sweeney Reinhart A

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To analyze the accuracy and inter-observer variability of image-guidance (IG using 3D or 4D cone-beam CT (CBCT technology in stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT for lung tumors. Materials and methods Twenty-one consecutive patients treated with image-guided SBRT for primary and secondary lung tumors were basis for this study. A respiration correlated 4D-CT and planning contours served as reference for all IG techniques. Three IG techniques were performed independently by three radiation oncologists (ROs and three radiotherapy technicians (RTTs. Image-guidance using respiration correlated 4D-CBCT (IG-4D with automatic registration of the planning 4D-CT and the verification 4D-CBCT was considered gold-standard. Results were compared with two IG techniques using 3D-CBCT: 1 manual registration of the planning internal target volume (ITV contour and the motion blurred tumor in the 3D-CBCT (IG-ITV; 2 automatic registration of the planning reference CT image and the verification 3D-CBCT (IG-3D. Image quality of 3D-CBCT and 4D-CBCT images was scored on a scale of 1–3, with 1 being best and 3 being worst quality for visual verification of the IGRT results. Results Image quality was scored significantly worse for 3D-CBCT compared to 4D-CBCT: the worst score of 3 was given in 19 % and 7.1 % observations, respectively. Significant differences in target localization were observed between 4D-CBCT and 3D-CBCT based IG: compared to the reference of IG-4D, tumor positions differed by 1.9 mm ± 0.9 mm (3D vector on average using IG-ITV and by 3.6 mm ± 3.2 mm using IG-3D; results of IG-ITV were significantly closer to the reference IG-4D compared to IG-3D. Differences between the 4D-CBCT and 3D-CBCT techniques increased significantly with larger motion amplitude of the tumor; analogously, differences increased with worse 3D-CBCT image quality scores. Inter-observer variability was largest in SI direction and was

Testing simulations of intra- and inter-annual variation in the plant production response to elevated CO(2) against measurements from an 11-year FACE experiment on grazed pasture.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Frank Yonghong; Newton, Paul C D; Lieffering, Mark

2014-01-01

Ecosystem models play a crucial role in understanding and evaluating the combined impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and changing climate on terrestrial ecosystems. However, we are not aware of any studies where the capacity of models to simulate intra- and inter-annual variation in responses to elevated CO2 has been tested against long-term experimental data. Here we tested how well the ecosystem model APSIM/AgPasture was able to simulate the results from a free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiment on grazed pasture. At this FACE site, during 11 years of CO2 enrichment, a wide range in annual plant production response to CO2 (-6 to +28%) was observed. As well as running the full model, which includes three plant CO2 response functions (plant photosynthesis, nitrogen (N) demand and stomatal conductance), we also tested the influence of these three functions on model predictions. Model/data comparisons showed that: (i) overall the model over-predicted the mean annual plant production response to CO2 (18.5% cf 13.1%) largely because years with small or negative responses to CO2 were not well simulated; (ii) in general seasonal and inter-annual variation in plant production responses to elevated CO2 were well represented by the model; (iii) the observed CO2 enhancement in overall mean legume content was well simulated but year-to-year variation in legume content was poorly captured by the model; (iv) the best fit of the model to the data required all three CO2 response functions to be invoked; (v) using actual legume content and reduced N fixation rate under elevated CO2 in the model provided the best fit to the experimental data. We conclude that in temperate grasslands the N dynamics (particularly the legume content and N fixation activity) play a critical role in pasture production responses to elevated CO2 , and are processes for model improvement. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Atmospheric forcing of decadal Baltic Sea level variability in the last 200 years. A statistical analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huenicke, B. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

2008-11-06

This study aims at the estimation of the impact of different atmospheric factors on the past sealevel variations (up to 200 years) in the Baltic Sea by statistically analysing the relationship between Baltic Sea level records and observational and proxy-based reconstructed climatic data sets. The focus lies on the identification and possible quantification of the contribution of sealevel pressure (wind), air-temperature and precipitation to the low-frequency (decadal and multi-decadal) variability of Baltic Sea level. It is known that the wind forcing is the main factor explaining average Baltic Sea level variability at inter-annual to decadal timescales, especially in wintertime. In this thesis it is statistically estimated to what extent other regional climate factors contribute to the spatially heterogeneous Baltic Sea level variations around the isostatic trend at multi-decadal timescales. Although the statistical analysis cannot be completely conclusive, as the potential climate drivers are all statistically interrelated to some degree, the results indicate that precipitation should be taken into account as an explanatory variable for sea-level variations. On the one hand it has been detected that the amplitude of the annual cycle of Baltic Sea level has increased throughout the 20th century and precipitation seems to be the only factor among those analysed (wind through SLP field, barometric effect, temperature and precipitation) that can account for this evolution. On the other hand, precipitation increases the ability to hindcast inter-annual variations of sea level in some regions and seasons, especially in the Southern Baltic in summertime. The mechanism by which precipitation exerts its influence on Baltic Sea level is not ascertained in this statistical analysis due to the lack of long salinity time series. This result, however, represents a working hypothesis that can be confirmed or disproved by long simulations of the Baltic Sea system - ocean

Seasonal, annual and inter-annual features of turbulence parameters over the tropical station Pune (18°32' N, 73°51' E observed with UHF wind profiler

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Singh

2008-11-01

Full Text Available The present study is specifically focused on the seasonal, annual and inter-annual variations of the refractive index structure parameter (Cn2 using three years of radar observations. Energy dissipation rates (ε during different seasons for a particular year are also computed over a tropical station, Pune. Doppler spectral width measurements made by the Wind Profiler, under various atmospheric conditions, are utilized to estimate the turbulence parameters. The refractive index structure parameter varies from 10−17.5 to 10−13 m−2/3 under clear air to precipitation conditions in the height region of 1.05 to 10.35 km. During the monsoon months, observed Cn2 values are up to 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than those during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Spectral width correction for various non-turbulent spectral broadenings such as beam broadening and shear broadening are made in the observed spectral width for reliable estimation of ε under non-precipitating conditions. It is found that in the lower tropospheric height region, values of ε are in the range of 10−6 to 10−3 m2 s−3. In summer and monsoon seasons the observed values of ε are larger than those in post-monsoon and winter seasons in the lower troposphere. A comparison of Cn2 observed with the wind profiler and that estimated using Radio Sonde/Radio Wind (RS/RW data of nearby Met station Chikalthana has been made for the month of July 2003.

The variability of interconnected wind plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Katzenstein, Warren; Fertig, Emily; Apt, Jay

2010-01-01

We present the first frequency-dependent analyses of the geographic smoothing of wind power's variability, analyzing the interconnected measured output of 20 wind plants in Texas. Reductions in variability occur at frequencies corresponding to times shorter than ∼24 h and are quantified by measuring the departure from a Kolmogorov spectrum. At a frequency of 2.8x10 -4 Hz (corresponding to 1 h), an 87% reduction of the variability of a single wind plant is obtained by interconnecting 4 wind plants. Interconnecting the remaining 16 wind plants produces only an additional 8% reduction. We use step change analyses and correlation coefficients to compare our results with previous studies, finding that wind power ramps up faster than it ramps down for each of the step change intervals analyzed and that correlation between the power output of wind plants 200 km away is half that of co-located wind plants. To examine variability at very low frequencies, we estimate yearly wind energy production in the Great Plains region of the United States from automated wind observations at airports covering 36 years. The estimated wind power has significant inter-annual variability and the severity of wind drought years is estimated to be about half that observed nationally for hydroelectric power.

Inter-subject Functional Correlation Reveal a Hierarchical Organization of Extrinsic and Intrinsic Systems in the Brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Ren, Yudan; Nguyen, Vinh Thai; Guo, Lei; Guo, Christine Cong

2017-09-07

The brain is constantly monitoring and integrating both cues from the external world and signals generated intrinsically. These extrinsically and intrinsically-driven neural processes are thought to engage anatomically distinct regions, which are thought to constitute the extrinsic and intrinsic systems of the brain. While the specialization of extrinsic and intrinsic system is evident in primary and secondary sensory cortices, a systematic mapping of the whole brain remains elusive. Here, we characterized the extrinsic and intrinsic functional activities in the brain during naturalistic movie-viewing. Using a novel inter-subject functional correlation (ISFC) analysis, we found that the strength of ISFC shifts along the hierarchical organization of the brain. Primary sensory cortices appear to have strong inter-subject functional correlation, consistent with their role in processing exogenous information, while heteromodal regions that attend to endogenous processes have low inter-subject functional correlation. Those brain systems with higher intrinsic tendency show greater inter-individual variability, likely reflecting the aspects of brain connectivity architecture unique to individuals. Our study presents a novel framework for dissecting extrinsically- and intrinsically-driven processes, as well as examining individual differences in brain function during naturalistic stimulation.

Inter-subject variability of muscle synergies during bench press in power lifters and untrained individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Kristiansen, M; Madeleine, P; Hansen, E A; Samani, A

2015-02-01

The purpose of the study was to elucidate the role of expertise on muscle synergies involved in bench press. Ten expert power lifters (EXP) and nine untrained participants (UNT) completed three sets of eight repetitions at 60% of three repetition maximum in bench press. Muscle synergies were extracted from surface electromyography data of 21 bench press cycles using non-negative matrix factorization algorithm. The synergy activation coefficient represents the relative contribution of the muscle synergy to the overall muscle activity pattern, while the muscle synergy vector represents the relative weighting of each muscle within each synergy. Describing more than 90% of the variability, two muscle synergies reflected the eccentric and concentric phase. The cross-correlations (ρ(max)) for synergy activation coefficient 2 (concentric phase) were 0.83 [0.71;0.88] and 0.59 [0.49;0.77] [Median ρ(max) (25th;75th percentile)] (P = 0.001) in UNT and EXP, respectively. Median correlation coefficient (ρ) for muscle synergy vector 2 was 0.15 [-0.08;0.46] and 0.48 [0.02;0.70] (P = 0.03) in UNT and EXP, respectively. Thus, EXP showed larger inter-subject variability than UNT in the synergy activation coefficient during the concentric phase, while the muscle synergy vectors were less variable in EXP. This points at the importance of a specialized neural strategy in elite bench press performance. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.

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Michael D Arendt

Full Text Available A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998-2007 was not projected for 2029-2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998-2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.

Use of a forest sapwood area index to explain long-term variability in mean annual evapotranspiration and streamflow in moist eucalypt forests

Science.gov (United States)

Benyon, Richard G.; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Jaskierniak, Dominik; Kuczera, George; Haydon, Shane R.

2015-07-01

Mean sapwood thickness, measured in fifteen 73 year old Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis stands, correlated strongly with forest overstorey stocking density (R2 0.72). This curvilinear relationship was used with routine forest stocking density and basal area measurements to estimate sapwood area of the forest overstorey at various times in 15 research catchments in undisturbed and disturbed forests located in the Great Dividing Range, Victoria, Australia. Up to 45 years of annual precipitation and streamflow data available from the 15 catchments were used to examine relationships between mean annual loss (evapotranspiration estimated as mean annual precipitation minus mean annual streamflow), and sapwood area. Catchment mean sapwood area correlated strongly (R2 0.88) with catchment mean annual loss. Variation in sapwood area accounted for 68% more variation in mean annual streamflow than precipitation alone (R2 0.90 compared with R2 0.22). Changes in sapwood area accounted for 96% of the changes in mean annual loss observed after forest thinning or clear-cutting and regeneration. We conclude that forest inventory data can be used reliably to predict spatial and temporal variation in catchment annual losses and streamflow in response to natural and imposed disturbances in even-aged forests. Consequently, recent advances in mapping of sapwood area using airborne light detection and ranging will enable high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of mean annual loss and mean annual streamflow over large areas of forested catchment. This will be particularly beneficial in management of water resources from forested catchments subject to disturbance but lacking reliable long-term (years to decades) streamflow records.

Inter-annual variability and trend detection of urban CO2, CH4 and CO emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Lauvaux, T.; Deng, A.; Gurney, K. R.; Nathan, B.; Ye, X.; Oda, T.; Karion, A.; Hardesty, M.; Harvey, R. M.; Richardson, S.; Whetstone, J. R.; Hutyra, L.; Davis, K. J.; Brewer, A.; Gaudet, B. J.; Turnbull, J. C.; Sweeney, C.; Shepson, P. B.; Miles, N.; Bonin, T.; Wu, K.; Balashov, N. V.

2017-12-01

The Indianapolis Flux (INFLUX) Experiment has conducted an unprecedented volume of atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements across the Indianapolis metropolitan area from aircraft, remote-sensing, and tower-based observational platforms. Assimilated in a high-resolution urban inversion system, atmospheric data provide an independent constraint to existing emission products, directly supporting the integration of economic data into urban emission systems. We present here the first multi-year assessment of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from anthropogenic activities in comparison to multiple bottom-up emission products. Biogenic CO2 fluxes are quantified using an optimized biogeochemical model at high resolution, further refined within the atmospheric inversion system. We also present the first sector-based inversion by jointly assimilating CO2 and CO mixing ratios to quantify the dominant sectors of emissions over the entire period (2012-2015). The detected trend in CO2 emissions over 2012-2015 from both bottom-up emission products and tower-based inversions agree within a few percent, with a decline in city emissions over the 3-year time period. Major changes occur at the primary power plant, suggesting a decrease in energy production within the city limits. The joint assimilation of CO2 and CO mixing ratios confirms the absence of trends in other sectors. However, top-down and bottom-up approaches tend to disagree annually, with a decline in urban emissions suggested by atmospheric data in 2014 that is several months earlier than is observed in the bottom-up products. Concerning CH4 emissions, the inversion shows a decrease since mid-2014 which may be due to lower landfill emissions or lower energy consumption (from coal and natural gas). This first demonstration of a high-accuracy long-term greenhouse gas measurement network merged with a high-resolution bottom-up information system highlights the potential for informing

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of aerosol optical properties during 2005-2010 over Red Mountain Pass and Impact on the Snow Cover of the San Juan Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, R. P.; Gautam, R.; Painter, T. H.

2011-12-01

Growing body of evidence suggests the significant role of aerosol solar absorption in accelerated seasonal snowmelt in the cryosphere and elevated mountain regions via snow contamination and radiative warming processes. Characterization of aerosol optical properties over seasonal snow cover and snowpacks is therefore important towards the better understanding of aerosol radiative effects and associated impact on snow albedo. In this study, we present seasonal variations in column-integrated aerosol optical properties retrieved from AERONET sunphotometer measurements (2005-2010) at Red Mountain Pass (37.90° N, 107.72° W, 3368 msl) in the San Juan Mountains, in the vicinity of the North American Great Basin and Colorado Plateau deserts. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) measured at 500nm is generally low (pollutant transport. In addition, the possibility of the observed increased coarse-mode influence associated with mineral dust influx cannot be ruled out, due to westerly-airmass driven transport from arid/desert regions as suggested by backward trajectory simulations. A meteorological coupling is also found in the summer season between AOD and column water vapor retrieved from AERONET with co-occurring enhanced water vapor and AOD. Based on column measurements, it is difficult to ascertain the aerosol composition, however, the summer-time enhanced aerosol loading as presented here is consistent with the increased dust deposition in the San Juan mountain snow cover as reported in recent studies. In summary, this study is expected to better understand the seasonal and inter-annual aerosol column variations and is an attempt to provide an insight into the effects of aerosol solar absorption on accelerated seasonal snowmelt in the San Juan mountains.

The role of storage capacity in coping with intra-annual runoff variability on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Gaupp, Franziska; Hall, Jim; Dadson, Simon

2015-04-01

Intra-annual variability poses a risk to water security in many basins as runoff is unevenly distributed over the year. Areas such as Northern Africa, Australia and the South-Western USA are characterized by a high coefficient of variability of monthly runoff. Analyzing the global risk of water scarcity, this study examines 680 basin-country units (BCUs) (403 river basins divided by country borders). By calculating the water balance for each BCU, the interplay of runoff on the one hand and domestic, industrial and environmental water needs on the other hand is shown. In contrast to other studies on average water scarcity, this work focuses on variability of water supply as metrics based on annual average water availability and demand can underestimate the risk of scarcity. The model is based on the assumption that each country-basin with sub-basins and tributaries can be treated as one single reservoir with storage capacity aggregated over that BCU. It includes surface runoff and the possibility to withdraw groundwater as water supply. The storage capacity of each BCU represents the ability to transfer water from wet months to dry months in order to buffer and cope with intra-annual water supply variability and to meet total water demand. Average monthly surface runoff per country-basin for the period 1979 to 2012 is derived from outcomes of the hydrological model Mac-PDM. Mac-PDM is forced with monthly ERAI-Interim reanalysis climate data on a one degree resolution. Groundwater withdrawal capacity, total water demand and storage capacity are taken from the IMPACT model provided by the International Food Research Institute (IFPRI). Storage refers to any kind of surface reservoir whose water can be managed and used for human activities in the industrial, domestic and agricultural sectors. Groundwater withdrawal capacity refers to the technological capacity to pump water rather than the amount of groundwater available. Total water demand includes consumptive water

SST diurnal variability in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, Jacob; Hasager, Charlotte Bay

2012-01-01

(σ) between 0.4K and 0.9K. The 5year record with daytime temperature anomalies is used to derive robust statistical description of duration, spatial extent, proximity to coast and water depth of the diurnal warming events. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the diurnal warming are also...... quantified. Daytime anomalies exceeding 2K are identified during the spring and summer months of every year, peaking at 1500 LT. Events with daily anomalies exceeding 5K are observed. Areas where diurnal variability is often observed coincide with areas of frequently observed low winds and turbid waters...

Intensity modulated proton therapy and its sensitivity to treatment uncertainties 2: the potential effects of inter-fraction and inter-field motions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lomax, A J

2008-01-01

Simple tools for studying the effects of inter-fraction and inter-field motions on intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans have been developed, and have been applied to both 3D and distal edge tracking (DET) IMPT plans. For the inter-fraction motion, we have investigated the effects of misaligned density heterogeneities, whereas for the inter-field motion analysis, the effects of field misalignment on the plans have been assessed. Inter-fraction motion problems have been analysed using density differentiated error (DDE) distributions, which specifically show the additional problems resulting from misaligned density heterogeneities for proton plans. Likewise, for inter-field motion, we present methods for calculating motion differentiated error (MDE) distributions. DDE and MDE analysis of all plans demonstrate that the 3D approach is generally more robust to both inter-fraction and inter-field motions than the DET approach, but that strong in-field dose gradients can also adversely affect a plan's robustness. An important additional conclusion is that, for certain IMPT plans, even inter-fraction errors cannot necessarily be compensated for by the use of a simple PTV margins, implying that more sophisticated tools need to be developed for uncertainty management and assessment for IMPT treatments at the treatment planning level

Effects of modified Pilates on variability of inter-joint coordination during walking in the elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, Sukhoon; Kim, Joo Nyeon; Lim, Hee Sung

2016-12-01

[Purpose] This study aimed to examine the effects of an 8-week modified Pilates program on the variability of inter-joint coordination in the elderly during walking. [Subjects and Methods] Twenty elderly participants with no recent history of orthopedic abnormalities (age, 67.9 ± 2.7 years; height, 163.7 ± 8.9 cm; weight, 67.1 ± 11.6 kg) were recruited for this study and randomly allocated to a modified Pilates exercise group or a control group. Three-dimensional motion analysis was performed on both groups to evaluate the effects of the Pilates exercise. [Results] There was no significant difference in the joint variability of the ankle, knee, and hip joints between the groups, both before training and after training. However, there was a significant increase in the hip-knee deviation phase value in the exercise group after the program was completed, and this increase was also significant when compared with that in the control group. [Conclusion] This study has demonstrated that an 8-week modified Pilates exercise program can have a positive impact on the gait of elderly participants, potentially by enhancing neuromuscular adjustment, which may have positive implications for reducing their fall risk.

Inter- and Intra-individual variability following intermittent theta burst stimulation: implications for rehabilitation and recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Hinder, Mark R; Goss, Emily L; Fujiyama, Hakuei; Canty, Alison J; Garry, Michael I; Rodger, Jennifer; Summers, Jeffery J

2014-01-01

The continued refinement of non-invasive brain stimulation (NBS) techniques is indicative of promising clinical and rehabilitative interventions that are able to modulate cortical excitability. Intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) is one such technique that can increase cortical excitability, purportedly via LTP-like mechanisms. While iTBS may have the capacity to promote recovery after neurological injury, and to combat cognitive and motor decline, recent reports observed highly variable effects across individuals, questioning the efficacy of iTBS as a clinical tool. The aim of this study was to examine intra-individual reliability and inter-individual variability in responses to iTBS. Thirty healthy participants completed two experimental sessions of the iTBS protocol 1-3 weeks apart. Motor evoked potentials in response to single pulse TMS were used to assess corticospinal excitability prior to, and up to 36 min following, iTBS. At the group level, iTBS evoked statistically significant increases in motor cortical excitability across both sessions (P iTBS is capable of inducing relatively robust and consistent effects within and between young individuals. As such, the capacity for iTBS to be exploited in clinical and rehabilitative interventions should continue to be explored. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Annual to Inter-Decadal Variability in Surface Air Temperature Along ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

instrumental sea surface temperature (SST) and. East African rainfall ... accelerated rise in minimum temperatures. The objectives of the ... Altitude above sea level (m) Urban/Exposed. Tanga. 05.05°S ...... Environmental Report, South Florida.

Variability of spawning time (lunar day) in Acropora versus merulinid corals: a 7-yr record of in situ coral spawning in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Che-Hung; Nozawa, Yoko

2017-12-01

Despite the global accumulation of coral spawning records over the past three decades, information on inter-annual variation in spawning time is still insufficient, resulting in difficulty in predicting coral spawning time. Here, we present new information on in situ spawning times of scleractinian corals at Lyudao, Taiwan, covering their inter-annual variations over a 7-yr period (2010-2016). Spawning of 42 species from 16 genera in eight families was recorded. The majority were hermaphroditic spawners (38 of 42 species), and their spawning occurred 2-4 h after sunset on 1-11 d after the full moon (AFM), mostly in April and May. There were two distinct patterns in the two dominant taxa, the genus Acropora (14 species) and the family Merulinidae (18 species in eight genera). The annual spawning of Acropora corals mostly occurred on a single night in May with high inter-annual variation of spawning (lunar) days between 1 and 11 d AFM. In contrast, the annual spawning of merulinid corals commonly occurred over 2-3 consecutive nights in two consecutive months, April and May, with the specific range of spawning days around the last quarter moon (between 5 and 8 d AFM). The distinct spawning patterns of these taxa were also documented at Okinawa and Kochi, Japan, where similar long-term monitoring of in situ coral spawning has been conducted. This variability in spawning days implies different regulatory mechanisms of synchronous spawning where Acropora corals might be more sensitive to exogenous environmental factors (hourglass mechanism), compared to merulinid corals, which may rely more on endogenous biological rhythms (oscillator mechanism).

Inter- and Intra-method Variability of VS Profiles and VS30 at ARRA-funded Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Yong, A.; Boatwright, J.; Martin, A. J.

2015-12-01

The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) funded geophysical site characterizations at 191 seismographic stations in California and in the central and eastern United States. Shallow boreholes were considered cost- and environmentally-prohibitive, thus non-invasive methods (passive and active surface- and body-wave techniques) were used at these stations. The drawback, however, is that these techniques measure seismic properties indirectly and introduce more uncertainty than borehole methods. The principal methods applied were Array Microtremor (AM), Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW; Rayleigh and Love waves), Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves (SASW), Refraction Microtremor (ReMi), and P- and S-wave refraction tomography. Depending on the apparent geologic or seismic complexity of the site, field crews applied one or a combination of these methods to estimate the shear-wave velocity (VS) profile and calculate VS30, the time-averaged VS to a depth of 30 meters. We study the inter- and intra-method variability of VS and VS30 at each seismographic station where combinations of techniques were applied. For each site, we find both types of variability in VS30 remain insignificant (5-10% difference) despite substantial variability observed in the VS profiles. We also find that reliable VS profiles are best developed using a combination of techniques, e.g., surface-wave VS profiles correlated against P-wave tomography to constrain variables (Poisson's ratio and density) that are key depth-dependent parameters used in modeling VS profiles. The most reliable results are based on surface- or body-wave profiles correlated against independent observations such as material properties inferred from outcropping geology nearby. For example, mapped geology describes station CI.LJR as a hard rock site (VS30 > 760 m/s). However, decomposed rock outcrops were found nearby and support the estimated VS30 of 303 m/s derived from the MASW (Love wave) profile.

Effect of inter-fibre bonding on the fracture of fibrous networks with strong interactions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Goutianos, Stergios; Mao, Rui; Peijs, Ton

2017-01-01

Abstract The mechanical response of cellulose nanopaper composites is investigated using a three-dimensional (3D) finite element fibrous network model with focus on the effect of inter-fibre bonds. It is found that the Young’s modulus and strength, for fixed fibre properties, are mainly controlle...

Modelling Inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries with Bayesian networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Dondeynaz, C.; Lopez-Puga, J.; Carmona-Moreno, C.

2012-04-01

Improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS), being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation). This inter-dependency has been recognised with the adoption of the "Integrated Water Resources Management" principles that push for the integration of these various dimensions involved in WSS delivery to ensure an efficient and sustainable management. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector in particular in developing countries where WSS still represent an important leverage for livelihood improvement. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed a coherent database (WatSan4Dev database) containing 29 indicators from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data focusing on developing countries (Celine et al, 2011 under publication). The aim of this work is to model the WatSan4Dev dataset using probabilistic models to identify the key variables influencing or being influenced by the water supply and sanitation access levels. Bayesian Network Models are suitable to map the conditional dependencies between variables and also allows ordering variables by level of influence on the dependent variable. Separated models have been built for water supply and for sanitation because of different behaviour. The models are validated if complying with statistical criteria but either with scientific knowledge and literature. A two steps approach has been adopted to build the structure of the model; Bayesian network is first built for each thematic cluster of variables (e.g governance, agricultural pressure, or human development) keeping a detailed level for interpretation later one. A global model is then built based on significant indicators of each cluster being previously modelled. The structure of the

Malaria early warning tool: linking inter-annual climate and malaria variability in northern Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jason; Tahani, Lloyd; Bobogare, Albino; Bugoro, Hugo; Otto, Francis; Fafale, George; Hiriasa, David; Kazazic, Adna; Beard, Grant; Amjadali, Amanda; Jeanne, Isabelle

2017-11-21

Malaria control remains a significant challenge in the Solomon Islands. Despite progress made by local malaria control agencies over the past decade, case rates remain high in some areas of the country. Studies from around the world have confirmed important links between climate and malaria transmission. This study focuses on understanding the links between malaria and climate in Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands, with a view towards developing a climate-based monitoring and early warning for periods of enhanced malaria transmission. Climate records were sourced from the Solomon Islands meteorological service (SIMS) and historical malaria case records were sourced from the National Vector-Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). A declining trend in malaria cases over the last decade associated with improved malaria control was adjusted for. A stepwise regression was performed between climate variables and climate-associated malaria transmission (CMT) at different lag intervals to determine where significant relationships existed. The suitability of these results for use in a three-tiered categorical warning system was then assessed using a Mann-Whitney U test. Of the climate variables considered, only rainfall had a consistently significant relationship with malaria in North Guadalcanal. Optimal lag intervals were determined for prediction using R 2 skill scores. A highly significant negative correlation (R = - 0.86, R 2  = 0.74, p malaria transmission periods in January-June. Cross-validation emphasized the suitability of this relationship for forecasting purposes [Formula: see text]  as did Mann-Whitney U test results showing that rainfall below or above specific thresholds was significantly associated with above or below normal malaria transmission, respectively. This study demonstrated that rainfall provides the best predictor of malaria transmission in North Guadalcanal. This relationship is thought to be underpinned by the unique hydrological conditions

The inter-outburst behavior of cataclysmic variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szkody, P.; Mattei, J.A.; Waagen, E.O.; Stablein, C.

1990-01-01

Existing International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) archive data was used to accomplish a large scale study of what happens to the ultraviolet flux of accretion disk systems during the quiescent intervals between outbursts and how it relates to the preceding outburst characteristics of amplitude and width. The data sample involved multiple IUE observations for 16 dwarf novae and 8 novae along with existing optical coverage. Results indicate that most systems show correlated ultraviolet (UV) flux behavior with interoutburst phase, with 60 percent of the dwarf novae and 50 percent of the novae having decreasing flux trends while 33 percent of the dwarf novae and 38 percent of the novae show rising UV flux during the quiescent interval. All of the dwarf novae with decreasing UV fluxes at 1475A have orbital periods longer than 4.4 hours, while all (except BV Cen) with flat or rising fluxes at 1475A have orbital periods less than two hours. There are not widespread correlations of the UV fluxes with the amplitude of the preceding outburst and no correlations with the width of the outburst. From a small sample (7) that have relatively large quiescent V magnitude changes between the IUE observations, most show a strong correlation between the UV and optical continuum. Interpretation of the results is complicated by not being able to determine how much the white dwarf contributes to the ultraviolet flux. However, it is now evident that noticeable changes are occurring in the hot zones in accreting systems long after the outburst, and not only for systems that are dominated by the white dwarf. Whether these differences are due to different outburst mechanisms or to changes on white dwarfs which provide varying contributions to the UV flux remains to be determined

Inter-subject variability modulates phonological advance planning in the production of adjective-noun phrases.

Science.gov (United States)

Michel Lange, Violaine; Laganaro, Marina

2014-01-01

The literature on advance phonological planning in adjective-noun phrases (NPs) presents diverging results: while many experimental studies suggest that the entire NP is encoded before articulation, other results favor a span of encoding limited to the first word. Although cross-linguistic differences in the structure of adjective-NPs may account for some of these contrasting results, divergences have been reported even among similar languages and syntactic structures. Here we examined whether inter-individual differences account for variability in the span of phonological planning in the production of French NPs, where previous results indicated encoding limited to the first word. The span of phonological encoding is tested with the picture-word interference (PWI) paradigm using phonological distractors related to the noun or to the adjective of the NPs. In Experiment 1, phonological priming effects were limited to the first word in adjective NPs whichever the position of the adjective (pre-nominal or post-nominal). Crucially, phonological priming effects on the second word interacted with speakers' production speed suggesting different encoding strategies for participants. In Experiment 2, we tested this hypothesis further with a larger group of participants. Results clearly showed that slow and fast initializing participants presented different phonological priming patterns on the last element of adjective-NPs: while the first word was primed by a distractor for all speakers, only the slow speaker group presented a priming effect on the second element of the NP. These results show that the span of phonological encoding is modulated by inter-individual strategies: in experimental paradigms some speakers plan word by word whereas others encode beyond the initial word. We suggest that the diverging results reported in the literature on advance phonological planning may partly be reconciled in light of the present results.

On the daily cycle of the climatological variables in the Municipality of Quibdo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pabon, Jose Daniel; Reiner Palomino Lemus; William Murillo Lopez

2005-01-01

We analyzed the daily cycle of the climatological variables (solar radiation, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and wind) in Quibdo, (5.45 degrades N and 76.39 degrades W, 53m), department of Choco. The analysis is based on hourly data recorded during the period 2000-2004 at the meteorological and radiometric station of the technological university of Choco, Diego Luis Cordoba (UTCH). It is shown that the daily cycle of the climatological variables in the city of Quibdo is typical of the tropical areas and the particularities of the daily pattern of precipitation were found: most of the rains occur during the evening. The seasonal variation of the daily cycle was also established. Finally, an approximation was made to the analyses of the effect of extreme phases of inter annual climate variability associated to El Nino and la Nina

Phenology and growth adjustments of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) to photoperiod and climate variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Legros, S; Mialet-Serra, I; Caliman, J-P; Siregar, F A; Clément-Vidal, A; Dingkuhn, M

2009-11-01

Oil palm flowering and fruit production show seasonal maxima whose causes are unknown. Drought periods confound these rhythms, making it difficult to analyse or predict dynamics of production. The present work aims to analyse phenological and growth responses of adult oil palms to seasonal and inter-annual climatic variability. Two oil palm genotypes planted in a replicated design at two sites in Indonesia underwent monthly observations during 22 months in 2006-2008. Measurements included growth of vegetative and reproductive organs, morphology and phenology. Drought was estimated from climatic water balance (rainfall - potential evapotranspiration) and simulated fraction of transpirable soil water. Production history of the same plants for 2001-2005 was used for inter-annual analyses. Drought was absent at the equatorial Kandista site (0 degrees 55'N) but the Batu Mulia site (3 degrees 12'S) had a dry season with variable severity. Vegetative growth and leaf appearance rate fluctuated with drought level. Yield of fruit, a function of the number of female inflorescences produced, was negatively correlated with photoperiod at Kandista. Dual annual maxima were observed supporting a recent theory of circadian control. The photoperiod-sensitive phases were estimated at 9 (or 9 + 12 x n) months before bunch maturity for a given phytomer. The main sensitive phase for drought effects was estimated at 29 months before bunch maturity, presumably associated with inflorescence sex determination. It is assumed that seasonal peaks of flowering in oil palm are controlled even near the equator by photoperiod response within a phytomer. These patterns are confounded with drought effects that affect flowering (yield) with long time-lag. Resulting dynamics are complex, but if the present results are confirmed it will be possible to predict them with models.

An analysis of factors associated with influenza, pneumoccocal, Tdap, and herpes zoster vaccine uptake in the US adult population and corresponding inter-state variability.

Science.gov (United States)

La, Elizabeth M; Trantham, Laurel; Kurosky, Samantha K; Odom, Dawn; Aris, Emmanuel; Hogea, Cosmina

2018-02-01

Despite longstanding recommendations for routine vaccination against influenza; pneumococcal; tetanus, diphtheria, acellular pertussis (Tdap); and herpes zoster (HZ) among the United States general adult population, vaccine uptake remains low. Understanding factors that influence adult vaccination and coverage variability beyond the national level are important steps toward developing targeted strategies for increasing vaccination coverage. A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2011-2014). Multivariable logistic regression modeling was employed to identify individual factors associated with vaccination (socio-demographics, health status, healthcare utilization, state of residence) and generate adjusted vaccination coverage and compliance estimates nationally and by state. Results indicated that multiple characteristics were consistently associated with a higher likelihood of vaccination across all four vaccines, including female sex, increased educational attainment, and annual household income. Model-adjusted vaccination coverage estimates varied widely by state, with inter-state variability for the most recent year of data as follows: influenza (aged ≥18 years) 30.2-49.5%; pneumococcal (aged ≥65 years) 64.0-74.7%; Tdap (aged ≥18 years) 18.7-46.6%; and HZ (aged ≥60 years) 21.3-42.9%. Model-adjusted compliance with age-appropriate recommendations across vaccines was low and also varied by state: influenza+Tdap (aged 18-59 years) 7.9-24.7%; influenza+Tdap+HZ (aged 60-64 years) 4.1-14.4%; and influenza+Tdap+HZ+pneumococcal (aged ≥65 years) 3.0-18.3%. In summary, after adjusting for individual characteristics associated with vaccination, substantial heterogeneity across states remained, suggesting that other local factors (e.g. state policies) may be impacting adult vaccines uptake. Further research is needed to understand such factors, focusing on differences between states with high versus

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response

Definition of gross tumor volume in lung cancer: inter-observer variability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Steene, Jan; Linthout, Nadine; de Mey, Johan; Vinh-Hung, Vincent; Claassens, Cornelia; Noppen, Marc; Bel, Arjan; Storme, Guy

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To determine the inter-observer variation in gross tumor volume (GTV) definition in lung cancer, and its clinical relevance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Five clinicians involved in lung cancer were asked to define GTV on the planning CT scan of eight patients. Resulting GTVs were

Review of middle eastern hydro climatology and seasonal tele connections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pagano, T. C.; Mahani, S.; Nazemosadat, M. J.; Sorooshian, S.

2003-01-01

International hydro climatic variability in the Middle East is explored. A review is done on studies linking local climate with large-scale tele connections. These studies suggest that El Nino has a weak tendency of bringing better than normal conditions to the region during fall / winter. This signal is unstable in time and has considerable decadal variability. No consensus exists on the general start and end dates of various climate epochs, nor is there an explanation of the physical causes of the decad al variability, suggesting that the inter annual signal of El Nino in the Middle East may be transient and difficult to predict. In contrast, the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on temperature, precipitation and strea flow is strong, with high North Atlantic Oscillation winters favoring dry and cool conditions in the region. Recommendations are made on how to improve the ability to understand and forecast Middle Eastern inter annual variability, namely, 1) improve access to instrumental data, 2) coordinate research, forecasts and user involvement through a regional forum and 3) further explore the impacts of North Atlantic Oscillation in the Middle East

Changes in the Amplitude and Phase of the Annual Cycle: quantifying from surface wind series in China

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Tao

2013-04-01

Climate change is not only reflected in the changes in annual means of climate variables but also in the changes in their annual cycles (seasonality), especially in the regions outside the tropics. Changes in the timing of seasons, especially the wind season, have gained much attention worldwide in recent decade or so. We introduce long-range correlated surrogate data to Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method, which represent the statistic characteristics of data better than white noise. The new method we named Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Long-range Correlated noise (EEMD-LRC) and applied to 600 station wind speed records. This new method is applied to investigate the trend in the amplitude of the annual cycle of China's daily mean surface wind speed for the period 1971-2005. The amplitude of seasonal variation decrease significantly in the past half century over China, which can be well explained by Annual Cycle component from EEMD-LRC. Furthermore, the phase change of annual cycle lead to strongly shorten of wind season in spring, and corresponding with strong windy day frequency change over Northern China.

Genetic variability and inter-character associations in the mutants of Indian mustard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labana, K.S.; Chaurasia, B.D.; Singh, Balwant

1980-01-01

To study the genetic variability and the inter-character associations in Indian mustard [Brassica juncea (Linn.)Czern. and Coss. subsp. juncea Linn.], 104 radiation-induced mutants (including 'RLM 198') and 'RL 18' were grown during winter season of 1976-77 at the experimental farm of the Punjab Agricultural University. Analysis of variance revealed significant differences between the mutant genotypes for all the characters under study except for the primary branch number and siliqua number of main shoot, which were non-significant. High estimates of phenotypic coefficients of variation (pcv) and genetic coefficients of variation (gcv) were observed for secondary branch number, seed yield/plant, main shoot length and seed number/siliqua. In general, pcv estimates were higher than gcv estimates. The high estimates of both heritability and genetic advance were recorded in similar order for the plant height, seed number/siliqua, main shoot length and seed yield, in which the genetic progress could be achieved through mass selection. Seed yield was positively correlated with the primary branch number, the secondary branch number and the siliqua number of main shoot and negatively with the plant height. Shorter plant height w;.th more number of primary and secondary branches and more siliquae on main shoot were found to be good selection criteria for isolating high-yielding strains. (auth.)

Toward human resource management in inter-professional health practice: linking organizational culture, group identity and individual autonomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Tataw, David

2012-01-01

The literature on team and inter-professional care practice describes numerous barriers to the institutionalization of inter-professional healthcare. Responses to slow institutionalization of inter-professional healthcare practice have failed to describe change variables and to identify change agents relevant to inter-professional healthcare practice. The purpose of this paper is to (1) describe individual and organizational level barriers to collaborative practice in healthcare; (2) identify change variables relevant to the institutionalization of inter-professional practice at individual and organizational levels of analysis; and (3) identify human resource professionals as change agents and describe how the strategic use of the human resource function could transform individual and organizational level change variables and therefore facilitate the healthcare system's shift toward inter-professional practice. A proposed program of institutionalization includes the following components: a strategic plan to align human resource functions with organizational level inter-professional healthcare strategies, activities to enhance professional competencies and the organizational position of human resource personnel, activities to integrate inter-professional healthcare practices into the daily routines of institutional and individual providers, activities to stand up health provider champions as permanent leaders of inter-professional teams with human resource professionals as consultants and activities to bring all key players to the table including health providers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Rainfall variability, climate change and regionalization in the African monsoon region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fontaine, Bernard; Roucou, Pascal; Vigaud, Nicolas; Camara, Moctar; Konare, Abdourahamane; Sanda, Seidou Ibrah; Diedhiou, Arona; Janicot, Serge

2012-01-01

This summary recalls some results at the end of the AMMA international experiment (2003-2010) in terms of variability of the African monsoon at the intra-seasonal to multi-decadal scales and of climate prospective. The results confirmed the weight of surface temperatures and marine tele-connections for inter-annual and decadal fluctuations and stressed the importance of atmospheric variability. They also described the dominant modes of intra-seasonal variability as their interactions with the surface. Several hypotheses involving memory effects related to soil water and vegetation, particularly in boreal spring and autumn have also been made. Prospective analysis from model output suggests rainfall surplus around 2050 over the Eastern-central Sahel and relative deficit to the West. Phase 2 of AMMA (2010-2020) will focus more on aspects that have a high social impact in direct collaboration with meteorological services predictability, prediction scores, operational indicators, evaluation of the part of anthropogenic forcing in the current and future variations. (authors)

Dosimetric impact of inter-observer variability for 3D conformal radiotherapy and volumetric modulated arc therapy: the rectal tumor target definition case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobefalo, Francesca; Cozzi, Luca; Scorsetti, Marta; Mancosu, Pietro; Bignardi, Mario; Reggiori, Giacomo; Tozzi, Angelo; Tomatis, Stefano; Alongi, Filippo; Fogliata, Antonella; Gaudino, Anna; Navarria, Piera

2013-01-01

To assess the dosimetric effect induced by inter-observer variability in target definition for 3D-conformal RT (3DCRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy by RapidArc (RA) techniques for rectal cancer treatment. Ten patients with rectal cancer subjected to neo-adjuvant RT were randomly selected from the internal database. Four radiation oncologists independently contoured the clinical target volume (CTV) in blind mode. Planning target volume (PTV) was defined as CTV + 7 mm in the three directions. Afterwards, shared guidelines between radiation oncologists were introduced to give general criteria for the contouring of rectal target and the four radiation oncologists defined new CTV following the guidelines. For each patient, six intersections (I) and unions (U) volumes were calculated coupling the contours of the various oncologists. This was repeated for the contours drawn after the guidelines. Agreement Index (AI = I/U) was calculated pre and post guidelines. Two RT plans (one with 3DCRT technique using 3–4 fields and one with RA using a single modulated arc) were optimized on each radiation oncologist’s PTV. For each plan the PTV volume receiving at least 95% of the prescribed dose (PTV V95%) was calculated for both target and non-target PTVs. The inter-operator AI pre-guidelines was 0.57 and was increased up to 0.69 post-guidelines. The maximum volume difference between the various CTV couples, drawn for each patient, passed from 380 ± 147 cm 3 to 137 ± 83 cm 3 after the introduction of guidelines. The mean percentage for the non-target PTV V95% was 93.7 ± 9.2% before and 96.6 ± 4.9%after the introduction of guidelines for the 3DCRT, for RA the increase was more relevant, passing from 86.5 ± 13.8% (pre) to 94.5 ± 7.5% (post). The OARs were maximally spared with VMAT technique while the variability between pre and post guidelines was not relevant in both techniques. The contouring inter-observer variability has dosimetric effects in the PTV coverage

Masting in ponderosa pine: comparisons of pollen and seed over space and time.

Science.gov (United States)

Mooney, Kailen A; Linhart, Yan B; Snyder, Marc A

2011-03-01

Many plant species exhibit variable and synchronized reproduction, or masting, but less is known of the spatial scale of synchrony, effects of climate, or differences between patterns of pollen and seed production. We monitored pollen and seed cone production for seven Pinus ponderosa populations (607 trees) separated by up to 28 km and 1,350 m in elevation in Boulder County, Colorado, USA for periods of 4-31 years for a mean per site of 8.7 years for pollen and 12.1 for seed cone production. We also analyzed climate data and a published dataset on 21 years of seed production for an eighth population (Manitou) 100 km away. Individual trees showed high inter-annual variation in reproduction. Synchrony was high within populations, but quickly became asynchronous among populations with a combination of increasing distance and elevational difference. Inter-annual variation in temperature and precipitation had differing influences on seed production for Boulder County and Manitou. We speculate that geographically variable effects of climate on reproduction arise from environmental heterogeneity and population genetic differentiation, which in turn result in localized synchrony. Although individual pines produce pollen and seed, only one-third of the covariation within trees was shared. As compared to seed cones, pollen had lower inter-annual variation at the level of the individual tree and was more synchronous. However, pollen and seed production were similar with respect to inter-annual variation at the population level, spatial scales of synchrony and associations with climate. Our results show that strong masting can occur at a localized scale, and that reproductive patterns can differ between pollen and seed cone production in a hermaphroditic plant.

Fifteen Years (1993–2007 of Surface Freshwater Storage Variability in the Ganges-Brahmaputra River Basin Using Multi-Satellite Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edward Salameh

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Surface water storage is a key component of the terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles that also plays a major role in water resources management. In this study, surface water storage (SWS variations are estimated at monthly time-scale over 15 years (1993–2007 using a hypsographic approach based on the combination of topographic information from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER and Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP-based Global Digital Elevation Models (GDEM and the Global Inundation Extent Multi-Satellite (GIEMS product in the Ganges-Brahmaputra basin. The monthly variations of the surface water storage are in good accordance with precipitation from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, river discharges at the outlet of the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, and terrestrial water storage (TWS from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE, with correlations higher than 0.85. Surface water storage presents a strong seasonal signal (~496 km3 estimated by GIEMS/ASTER and ~378 km3 by GIEMS/HyMAPs, representing ~51% and ~41% respectively of the total water storage signal and it exhibits a large inter-annual variability with strong negative anomalies during the drought-like conditions of 1994 or strong positive anomalies such as in 1998. This new dataset of SWS is a new, highly valuable source of information for hydrological and climate modeling studies of the Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin.

Unit-specific calibration of Actigraph accelerometers in a mechanical setup - is it worth the effort? The effect on random output variation caused by technical inter-instrument variability in the laboratory and in the field

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moeller, Niels C; Korsholm, Lars; Kristensen, Peter L

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Potentially, unit-specific in-vitro calibration of accelerometers could increase field data quality and study power. However, reduced inter-unit variability would only be important if random instrument variability contributes considerably to the total variation in field data. Therefor...

The temporal variability of species densities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redfearn, A.; Pimm, S.L.

1993-01-01

Ecologists use the term 'stability' to mean to number of different things (Pimm 1984a). One use is to equate stability with low variability in population density over time (henceforth, temporal variability). Temporal variability varies greatly from species to species, so what effects it? There are at least three sets of factors: the variability of extrinsic abiotic factors, food web structure, and the intrinsic features of the species themselves. We can measure temporal variability using at least three statistics: the coefficient of variation of density (CV); the standard deviation of the logarithms of density (SDL); and the variance in the differences between logarithms of density for pairs of consecutive years (called annual variability, hence AV, b y Wolda 1978). There are advantages and disadvantages to each measure (Williamson 1984), though in our experience, the measures are strongly correlated across sets of taxonomically related species. The increasing availability of long-term data sets allows one to calculate these statistics for many species and so to begin to understand the various causes of species differences in temporal variability

Differential responses of seabirds to inter-annual environmental change in the continental shelf and oceanic habitats of southeastern Bering Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, T.; Kokubun, N.; Kikuchi, D. M.; Sato, N.; Takahashi, A.; Will, A.; Kitaysky, A. S.; Watanuki, Y.

2015-11-01

Seasonal sea-ice cover has been decreasing in the southeastern Bering Sea shelf, which might affect ecosystem dynamics and availability of food resources to marine top predators breeding in the region. In this study, we investigated the foraging responses of two seabird species, surface-foraging red-legged kittiwakes Rissa brevirostris (hereafter, RLKI) and pursuit-diving foraging thick-billed murres Uria lomvia (TBMU) to the inter-annual change in environmental conditions. Between the study years, winter ice retreated earlier and summer water temperatures were warmer in 2014 compared to those in 2013. At-sea distributions of RLKI and TBMU breeding on St. George Island, the largest seabird colony in the region, were recorded using GPS loggers, and blood samples were taken to examine their physiological condition and isotopic foraging niche in a given year. RLKI foraging occurred mostly over the oceanic basin in both years. TBMU, however, foraged mostly over the shelf, but showed a relatively higher use of the shelf break and oceanic basin in the colder year, 2013. The foraging distances from the colony peaked at 250-300 km in 2013 and, bimodally, at 150-250 and 300-350 km in 2014 for RLKI, and tended to be farther in 2013 compared to those in 2014 for TBMU. Plasma levels of corticosterone did not differ between years in RLKI, but differed in TBMU, showing higher levels of physiological stress incurred by murres during the colder year, 2013. δ13N (a proxy of trophic level of prey) did not differ between the years in either RLKI or TBMU, while δ13C (a proxy of prey origin) were lower in 2014 than in 2013 in both species, suggesting possible differences in influx of oceanic prey items into foraging areas. These results suggest that the response of ecosystem dynamics to climate variability in the southeast Bering Sea may differ between the ocean basin and continental shelf regions, which, in turn, may generate differential responses in seabirds relying on those

Inter-annual climate variability and zooplankton: applying teleconnection indices to two deep subalpine lakes in Italy

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Marina Manca

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Investigating relation between meteo-climatic indices and between-year variation in Daphnia population density and phenology is crucial for e.g. predicting impact of climate change on lake ecosystem structure and functioning. We tested whether and how two teleconnection indices calculated for the winter period, namely the East Atlantic pattern (EADJF and the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMPDJF were correlated with Daphnia population growth in two Italian subalpine lakes, Garda and Maggiore. We investigated between-lake temporal coherence in: i water temperature within the water layer in which Daphnia is distributed; ii timing of Daphnia initial and spring maximum population density peak and iii the level of Daphnia spring maximum population density peak over an eleven-year period (1998-2008 of unchanged predation pressure by fish and invertebrates, and of common oligotrophy. Between-lake temporal coherence was high for an earlier start, an earlier, and lower, Daphnia population spring density peak after milder winters. Peak density level was coherently, positively correlated with soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP concentration. We hypothesized that Daphnia peak densities were related to atmospheric modes of variability in winter and to the degree of late winter mixing promoting replenishment of algal nutrients into upper water layers and phytoplankton growth, enhancing food availability and Daphnia fecundity, promoting Daphnia peak. 

Strong Stability Preserving Explicit Linear Multistep Methods with Variable Step Size

KAUST Repository

Hadjimichael, Yiannis

2016-09-08

Strong stability preserving (SSP) methods are designed primarily for time integration of nonlinear hyperbolic PDEs, for which the permissible SSP step size varies from one step to the next. We develop the first SSP linear multistep methods (of order two and three) with variable step size, and prove their optimality, stability, and convergence. The choice of step size for multistep SSP methods is an interesting problem because the allowable step size depends on the SSP coefficient, which in turn depends on the chosen step sizes. The description of the methods includes an optimal step-size strategy. We prove sharp upper bounds on the allowable step size for explicit SSP linear multistep methods and show the existence of methods with arbitrarily high order of accuracy. The effectiveness of the methods is demonstrated through numerical examples.

Inter-annual precipitation variabiity inferred from late Holocene speleothem records from Fiji: implications for SPCZ localisation and ENSO behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Brett, M.

2015-12-01

The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Interannual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events. Voli Voli cave near Sigatoga (Viti Levu) is a stream passage that has been monitored since 2009. A U-Th dated laminated speleothem spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age marked by a fabric change from finely laminated calcite with thin clay layers, to white well-laminated calcite. The older record is characterised by rising δ13C values followed by a rapid decrease in δ13C around 1200 AD. Evidence from cave monitoring shows that cave air CO2 levels are strongly seasonal as a result of greater ventilation by winter trade winds and high resolution δ13C record shows regularly spaced peaks correlated with paired laminae and cycles in P and S which provide annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. δ18O values remain relatively unchanged throughout the record but micromilling at sub-annual resolution reveals systematic cycles in δ18O that span groups of paired laminae with an inferred periodicity of 3-7 years i.e. a similar frequency to modern ENSO. The presence of these sub-decadal cycles in δ18O may be a result of a combination of factors. The amplitude of 2-3‰ would be equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of around 50% but an additional smoothing process, perhaps a result of aquifer storage, is required to attenuate interannual variance in precipitation. The Voli Voli record provides evidence of an underlying climatic change to more frequent La Niña conditions from 1200 AD and may be associated with increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies on the island. Coeval speleothem isotope records from tropical Pacific Islands provide a provide a

Characterization of regional left ventricular function in nonhuman primates using magnetic resonance imaging biomarkers: a test-retest repeatability and inter-subject variability study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smita Sampath

Full Text Available Pre-clinical animal models are important to study the fundamental biological and functional mechanisms involved in the longitudinal evolution of heart failure (HF. Particularly, large animal models, like nonhuman primates (NHPs, that possess greater physiological, biochemical, and phylogenetic similarity to humans are gaining interest. To assess the translatability of these models into human diseases, imaging biomarkers play a significant role in non-invasive phenotyping, prediction of downstream remodeling, and evaluation of novel experimental therapeutics. This paper sheds insight into NHP cardiac function through the quantification of magnetic resonance (MR imaging biomarkers that comprehensively characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics of left ventricular (LV systolic pumping and LV diastolic relaxation. MR tagging and phase contrast (PC imaging were used to quantify NHP cardiac strain and flow. Temporal inter-relationships between rotational mechanics, myocardial strain and LV chamber flow are presented, and functional biomarkers are evaluated through test-retest repeatability and inter subject variability analyses. The temporal trends observed in strain and flow was similar to published data in humans. Our results indicate a dominant dimension based pumping during early systole, followed by a torsion dominant pumping action during late systole. Early diastole is characterized by close to 65% of untwist, the remainder of which likely contributes to efficient filling during atrial kick. Our data reveal that moderate to good intra-subject repeatability was observed for peak strain, strain-rates, E/circumferential strain-rate (CSR ratio, E/longitudinal strain-rate (LSR ratio, and deceleration time. The inter-subject variability was high for strain dyssynchrony, diastolic strain-rates, peak torsion and peak untwist rate. We have successfully characterized cardiac function in NHPs using MR imaging. Peak strain, average systolic strain

Improving inter-observer variability in the evaluation of ultrasonographic features of polycystic ovaries

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Leswick David A

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background We recently reported poor inter-observer agreement in identifying and quantifying individual ultrasonographic features of polycystic ovaries. Our objective was to determine the effect of a training workshop on reducing inter-observer variation in the ultrasonographic evaluation of polycystic ovaries. Methods Transvaginal ultrasound recordings from thirty women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS were evaluated by three radiologists and three reproductive endocrinologists both before and after an ultrasound workshop. The following endpoints were assessed: 1 follicle number per ovary (FNPO, 2 follicle number per single cross-section (FNPS, 3 largest follicle diameter, 4 ovarian volume, 5 follicle distribution pattern and 6 presence of a corpus luteum (CL. Lin's concordance correlation coefficients (rho and kappa statistics for multiple raters (kappa were used to assess level of inter-observer agreement (>0.80 good, 0.60 – 0.80 moderate/fair, Results Following the workshop, inter-observer agreement improved for the evaluation of FNPS (rho = 0.70, delta rho = +0.11, largest follicle diameter (rho = 0.77, delta rho = +0.10, ovarian volume (rho = 0.84, delta rho = +0.12, follicle distribution pattern (kappa = 0.80, delta kappa = +0.21 and presence of a CL (kappa = 0.87, delta kappa = +0.05. No improvement was evident for FNPO (rho = 0.54, delta rho = -0.01. Both radiologists and reproductive endocrinologists demonstrated improvement in scores (p Conclusion Reliability in evaluating ultrasonographic features of polycystic ovaries can be significantly improved following participation in a training workshop. If ultrasonographic evidence of polycystic ovaries is to be used as an objective measure in the diagnosis of PCOS, then standardized training modules should be implemented to unify the approach to evaluating polycystic ovarian morphology.

Variations of iron flux and organic carbon remineralization in a subterranean estuary caused by inter-annual variations in recharge

Science.gov (United States)

Roy, Moutusi; Martin, Jonathan B.; Cable, Jaye E.; Smith, Christopher G.

2013-02-01

We determine the inter-annual variations in diagenetic reaction rates of sedimentary iron (Fe) in an east Florida subterranean estuary and evaluate the connection between metal fluxes and recharge to the coastal aquifer. Over the three years study period (from 2004 to 2007), the amount of Fe-oxides reduced at the study site decreased from 192 to 153 g/yr and associated organic carbon (OC) remineralization decreased from 48 to 38 g/yr. These reductions occurred although the Fe-oxide reduction rates remained constant around 1 mg/cm2/yr. These results suggest that changes in flow rates of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) related to changes in precipitation may be important to fluxes of the diagenetic reaction products. Rainfall at a weather station approximately 5 km from the field area decreased from 12.6 to 8.4 cm/month from 2004 to 2007. Monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculated from Thornthwaite's method indicated potential evapotranspiration cycled from about 3 cm/month in the winter to about 15 cm/month in the summer so that net annual recharge to the aquifer decreased from 40 cm in 2004 to -10 cm in 2007. Simultaneously with the decrease in recharge of groundwater, freshwater SGD decreased by around 20% and caused the originally 25 m wide freshwater seepage face to decrease in width by about 5 m. The smaller seepage face reduced the area under which Fe-oxides were undergoing reductive dissolution. Consequently, the observed decrease in Fe flux is controlled by hydrology of the subterranean estuary. These results point out the need to better understand linkages between temporal variations in diagenetic reactions and changes in flow within subterranean estuaries in order to accurately constrain their contribution to oceanic fluxes of solutes from subterranean estuaries.

Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.

Inter-firm R&D partnering in pharmaceutical biotechnology since 1975 : trends, patterns, and networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roijakkers, A.H.W.M.; Hagedoorn, J.

2006-01-01

This paper analyses a large, longitudinal database on inter-firm R&D partnerships formed in the high-tech pharmaceutical biotechnology industry since 1975. Our research indicates an overall growth in the number of annually, newly established R&D partnerships where research partners consistently

FAST VARIABILITY AND MILLIMETER/IR FLARES IN GRMHD MODELS OF Sgr A* FROM STRONG-FIELD GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chan, Chi-kwan; Psaltis, Dimitrios; Özel, Feryal; Marrone, Daniel [Steward Observatory and Department of Astronomy, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Medeiros, Lia [Department of Physics, Broida Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Sadowski, Aleksander [MIT Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Narayan, Ramesh, E-mail: chanc@email.arizona.edu [Institute for Theory and Computation, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

2015-10-20

We explore the variability properties of long, high-cadence general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations across the electromagnetic spectrum using an efficient, GPU-based radiative transfer algorithm. We focus on both standard and normal evolution (SANE) and magnetically arrested disk (MAD) simulations with parameters that successfully reproduce the time-averaged spectral properties of Sgr A* and the size of its image at 1.3 mm. We find that the SANE models produce short-timescale variability with amplitudes and power spectra that closely resemble those inferred observationally. In contrast, MAD models generate only slow variability at lower flux levels. Neither set of models shows any X-ray flares, which most likely indicates that additional physics, such as particle acceleration mechanisms, need to be incorporated into the GRMHD simulations to account for them. The SANE models show strong, short-lived millimeter/infrared (IR) flares, with short (≲1 hr) time lags between the millimeter and IR wavelengths, that arise from the combination of short-lived magnetic flux tubes and strong-field gravitational lensing near the horizon. Such events provide a natural explanation for the observed IR flares with no X-ray counterparts.

Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven T Stoddard

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4 that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010 of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007 then DENV-4 (2008-2010. After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

BIGGEST CZECH BANKS IN THE MIRROR OF ANNUAL REPORTS

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Vladislav PAVLAT

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the Paper is to characterise and analyse the biggest Czech banks Annual reports (ARs. Since 2004, the behaviour of Czech banks has been changing, as can be seen – inter alia - from the big banks´ financial statements and annual reports. During the period of 2007 – 2013 the implementation of IFRS continued and its impact on the institutional structure of banking is visible. From the point of view of banks, annual reports present not only the financial results, but they serve as an important instrument of competition and marketing as well. Comparative analysis of the three Czech leading banks gives a picture of their specific features as reflected in their annual statements.

Photometric variability in a warm, strongly magnetic DQ white dwarf, SDSS J103655.39+652252.2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, Kurtis A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University-Commerce, P.O. Box 3011, Commerce, TX 75429 (United States); Winget, D. E.; Montgomery, M. H.; Hermes, J. J.; Falcon, Ross E.; Winget, K. I. [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas, 1 University Station C1400, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Dufour, Patrick [Département de Physique, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 (Canada); Kepler, S. O. [Departamento de Astronomia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 9500 Porto Alegre 91501-970, RS (Brazil); Bolte, Michael [UCO/Lick Observatory, University of California, 1156 High St., Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Rubin, Kate H. R. [Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie, Königstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Liebert, James, E-mail: Kurtis.Williams@tamuc.edu, E-mail: jamesliebert@gmail.com [Emeritus, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Ave., Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

2013-06-01

We present the discovery of photometric variability in the DQ white dwarf SDSS J103655.39+652252.2 (SDSS J1036+6522). Time-series photometry reveals a coherent monoperiodic modulation at a period of 1115.64751(67) s with an amplitude 0.442% ± 0.024%; no other periodic modulations are observed with amplitudes ≳ 0.13%. The period, amplitude, and phase of this modulation are constant within errors over 16 months. The spectrum of SDSS J1036+6522 shows magnetic splitting of carbon lines, and we use Paschen-Back formalism to develop a grid of model atmospheres for mixed carbon and helium atmospheres. Our models, while reliant on several simplistic assumptions, nevertheless match the major spectral and photometric properties of the star with a self-consistent set of parameters: T {sub eff} ≈ 15, 500 K, log g ≈ 9, log (C/He) = –1.0, and a mean magnetic field strength of 3.0 ± 0.2 MG. The temperature and abundances strongly suggest that SDSS J1036+6522 is a transition object between the hot, carbon-dominated DQs and the cool, helium-dominated DQs. The variability of SDSS J1036+6522 has characteristics similar to those of the variable hot carbon-atmosphere white dwarfs (DQVs), however, its temperature is significantly cooler. The pulse profile of SDSS J1036+6522 is nearly sinusoidal, in contrast with the significantly asymmetric pulse shapes of the known magnetic DQVs. If the variability in SDSS J1036+6522 is due to the same mechanism as other DQVs, then the pulse shape is not a definitive diagnostic on the absence of a strong magnetic field in DQVs. It remains unclear whether the root cause of the variability in SDSS J1036+6522 and the other hot DQVs is the same.

Photometric variability in a warm, strongly magnetic DQ white dwarf, SDSS J103655.39+652252.2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, Kurtis A.; Winget, D. E.; Montgomery, M. H.; Hermes, J. J.; Falcon, Ross E.; Winget, K. I.; Dufour, Patrick; Kepler, S. O.; Bolte, Michael; Rubin, Kate H. R.; Liebert, James

2013-01-01

We present the discovery of photometric variability in the DQ white dwarf SDSS J103655.39+652252.2 (SDSS J1036+6522). Time-series photometry reveals a coherent monoperiodic modulation at a period of 1115.64751(67) s with an amplitude 0.442% ± 0.024%; no other periodic modulations are observed with amplitudes ≳ 0.13%. The period, amplitude, and phase of this modulation are constant within errors over 16 months. The spectrum of SDSS J1036+6522 shows magnetic splitting of carbon lines, and we use Paschen-Back formalism to develop a grid of model atmospheres for mixed carbon and helium atmospheres. Our models, while reliant on several simplistic assumptions, nevertheless match the major spectral and photometric properties of the star with a self-consistent set of parameters: T eff ≈ 15, 500 K, log g ≈ 9, log (C/He) = –1.0, and a mean magnetic field strength of 3.0 ± 0.2 MG. The temperature and abundances strongly suggest that SDSS J1036+6522 is a transition object between the hot, carbon-dominated DQs and the cool, helium-dominated DQs. The variability of SDSS J1036+6522 has characteristics similar to those of the variable hot carbon-atmosphere white dwarfs (DQVs), however, its temperature is significantly cooler. The pulse profile of SDSS J1036+6522 is nearly sinusoidal, in contrast with the significantly asymmetric pulse shapes of the known magnetic DQVs. If the variability in SDSS J1036+6522 is due to the same mechanism as other DQVs, then the pulse shape is not a definitive diagnostic on the absence of a strong magnetic field in DQVs. It remains unclear whether the root cause of the variability in SDSS J1036+6522 and the other hot DQVs is the same.

Long-Term Trends and Variability in Spring Development of Calanus finmarchicus in the Southeastern Norwegian Sea during 1996-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.

2016-02-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.

Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlam, Mart; Baker, Patrick J; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Zuidema, Pieter A

2014-04-01

Climate change effects on growth rates of tropical trees may lead to alterations in carbon cycling of carbon-rich tropical forests. However, climate sensitivity of broad-leaved lowland tropical trees is poorly understood. Dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) provides a powerful tool to study the relationship between tropical tree growth and annual climate variability. We aimed to establish climate-growth relationships for five annual-ring forming tree species, using ring-width data from 459 canopy and understory trees from a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand. Based on 183/459 trees, chronologies with total lengths between 29 and 62 years were produced for four out of five species. Bootstrapped correlation analysis revealed that climate-growth responses were similar among these four species. Growth was significantly negatively correlated with current-year maximum and minimum temperatures, and positively correlated with dry-season precipitation levels. Negative correlations between growth and temperature may be attributed to a positive relationship between temperature and autotrophic respiration rates. The positive relationship between growth and dry-season precipitation levels likely reflects the strong water demand during leaf flush. Mixed-effect models yielded results that were consistent across species: a negative effect of current wet-season maximum temperatures on growth, but also additive positive effects of, for example, prior dry-season maximum temperatures. Our analyses showed that annual growth variability in tropical trees is determined by a combination of both temperature and precipitation variability. With rising temperature, the predominantly negative relationship between temperature and growth may imply decreasing growth rates of tropical trees as a result of global warming.

Simultaneously measured inter-arm and inter-leg systolic blood pressure differences and cardiovascular risk stratification: a systemic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Sukhchain; Sethi, Ankur; Singh, Mukesh; Khosla, Kavia; Grewal, Navsheen; Khosla, Sandeep

2015-08-01

Association of inter-arm systolic blood pressure difference (IASBPD) with cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality remains controversial. We aimed to thoroughly examine all available evidence on inter-limb blood pressure (BP) difference and its association with CV risk and outcomes. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane library, and Ovid for studies reporting bilateral simultaneous BP measurements in arms or legs and risk of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, subclavian stenosis, or mortality. Random-effect meta-analysis was performed to compare effect estimates. Twenty-seven studies met inclusion criteria, but only 17 studies (18 cohorts) were suitable for analysis. IASBPD of 10 mmHg or more was associated with PAD (risk ratios, 2.22; 1.41-3.5; P = .0006; sensitivity 16.6%; 6.7-35.4; specificity 91.9%; 83.1-96.3; 8 cohorts; 4774 subjects), left ventricular mass index (standardized mean difference 0.21; 0.03-0.39; P = .02; 2 cohort; 1604 subjects), and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (PWV) (one cohort). Association of PAD remained significant at cutoff of 15 mmHg (risk ratios, 1.91; 1.28-2.84; P = .001; 5 cohorts; 1914 subjects). We could not find statistically significant direct association of coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, CV, and all-cause mortality in subjects with IASBPD of 10 mmHg or more, 15 mmHg or more, and inter-leg systolic BP difference of 15 mmHg or more. Inter-leg BP difference of 15 mmHg or more was strong predictor of PAD (P = .0001) and brachial-ankle PWV (P = .0001). Two invasive studies showed association of IASBPD and subclavian stenosis (estimates could not be combined). In conclusion, inter-arm and leg BP differences are strong predictors of PAD. IASBPD may be associated with subclavian stenosis, high left ventricular mass effect, and higher brachial-ankle PWVs. Inter-leg BP difference may also be associated with high left ventricular mass effect and higher

Relationship between annual precipitation variability and ENSO in Southern California for the Common Era (last 2,000 years)

Science.gov (United States)

DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.

Inter-annual and spatial variability of Hamon potential evapotranspiration model coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

McCabe, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Bock, Andy; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2015-01-01

Monthly calibrated values of the Hamon PET coefficient (C) are determined for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The calibrated coefficient values are determined by matching calculated mean monthly Hamon PET to mean monthly free-water surface evaporation. For most locations and months the calibrated coefficients are larger than the standard value reported by Hamon. The largest changes in the coefficients were for the late winter/early spring and fall months, whereas the smallest changes were for the summer months. Comparisons of PET computed using the standard value of C and computed using calibrated values of C indicate that for most of the conterminous U.S. PET is underestimated using the standard Hamon PET coefficient, except for the southeastern U.S.

Abnormalities of the airways and lung parenchyma in asthmatics: CT observations in 50 patients and inter- and intraobserver variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grenier, P.; Mourey-Gerosa, I.; Benali, K.; Brauner, M.W.; Leung, A.N.; Lenoir, S..; Cordeau, M.P.; Mazoyer, B.

1996-01-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the CT abnormalities of airways and lung parenchyma in asthmatic patients and to assess inter- and intraobserver variability for these abnormalities. The CT scans of 50 asthmatic patients and 10 healthy volunteers were assessed independently by four independent chest radiologists who were masked with respect to the clinical informations. Bronchiectasis involving mostly subsegmental and destal bronchi was noted in 28.5% of the asthmatic subjects and none of the non-asthmatics. Bronchial wall thickening, small centrilobular opacities and decreased lung attenuation were observed in 82%, 21% and 31% of asthmatic patients respectively, compared with 7%, 5% and 7% of healthy subjects. The intra- and interobserver agreements for these four CT abnormalities were measured by the kappa statistic and ranged from 0.60 to 0.79 and from 0.40 to 0.64, respectively. It is concluded that asthmatic patients may exhibit bronchial wall thickening, bronchiectasis and morphological abnormalities suggestive of distal airways disease that can be assessed on CT scans with a clinically acceptable observer variability. (orig.)

Description, evaluation and clinical decision making according to various fetal heart rate patterns. Inter-observer and regional variability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lidegaard, O; Bøttcher, L M; Weber, Tom

1992-01-01

departments, especially between departments far apart. It is concluded that we still need a scientific clarification of which specific heart rate changes are the best predictors of fetal stress. Artificial intelligence programs for interpreting fetal cardiotocograms and ECG signals constitute one promising......At 10 Danish obstetrical departments, 116 residents (42 senior and 74 junior) participated in a study to assess inter-observer and regional variability in the description and evaluation of and clinical decision regarding 11 fetal heart rate patterns. The 11 traces included normal as well...... as pathological patterns, and normal as well as clinically asphyxiated babies. Five antepartum and six intrapartum patterns were included. A total of 1,276 descriptions and evaluations were obtained. The degree of agreement in description of fetal heart rate changes was high regarding the baseline...

On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Milly, Paul C.D.; Kam, Jonghun; Dunne, Krista A.

2018-01-01

Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E) to those of precipitation (P) and temperature. The theory is based on extensions of the Budyko water‐balance hypothesis, the Priestley‐Taylor theory for potential evapotranspiration ( ), and a linear model of interannual basin storage. The theory implies that the temperature affects streamflow by modifying evapotranspiration through a Clausius‐Clapeyron‐like relation and through the sensitivity of net radiation to temperature. We apply and test (1) a previously introduced “strong” extension of the Budyko hypothesis, which requires that the function linking temporal variations of the evapotranspiration ratio (E/P) and the index of dryness ( /P) at an annual time scale is identical to that linking interbasin variations of the corresponding long‐term means, and (2) a “weak” extension, which requires only that the annual evapotranspiration ratio depends uniquely on the annual index of dryness, and that the form of that dependence need not be known a priori nor be identical across basins. In application of the weak extension, the readily observed sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation contains crucial information about the sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration and, thence, to temperature. Implementation of the strong extension is problematic, whereas the weak extension appears to capture essential controls of the temperature effect efficiently.

Modelling spatial and temporal variations of annual suspended sediment yields from small agricultural catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

Rymszewicz, A; Bruen, M; O'Sullivan, J J; Turner, J N; Lawler, D M; Harrington, J R; Conroy, E; Kelly-Quinn, M

2018-04-01

Estimates of sediment yield are important for ecological and geomorphological assessment of fluvial systems and for assessment of soil erosion within a catchment. Many regulatory frameworks, such as the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic, derived from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) require reporting of annual sediment fluxes. While they may be measured in large rivers, sediment flux is rarely measured in smaller rivers. Measurements of sediment transport at a national scale can be also challenging and therefore, sediment yield models are often utilised by water resource managers for the predictions of sediment yields in the ungauged catchments. Regression based models, calibrated to field measurements, can offer an advantage over complex and computational models due to their simplicity, easy access to input data and due to the additional insights into factors controlling sediment export in the study sites. While traditionally calibrated to long-term average values of sediment yields such predictions cannot represent temporal variations. This study addresses this issue in a novel way by taking account of the variation from year to year in hydrological variables in the developed models (using annual mean runoff, annual mean flow, flows exceeded in five percentage of the time (Q5) and seasonal rainfall estimated separately for each year of observations). Other parameters included in the models represent spatial differences influenced by factors such as soil properties (% poorly drained soils and % peaty soils), land-use (% pasture or % arable lands), channel slope (S1085) and drainage network properties (drainage density). Catchment descriptors together with year-specific hydrological variables can explain both spatial differences and inter-annual variability of suspended sediment yields. The methodology is demonstrated by deriving equations from Irish data-sets (compiled in this study) with the best model

Effects of land use on the timing and magnitude of dissolved organic carbon and nitrate fluxes: a regional analysis of high-frequency sensor measurements from forested, agricultural, and urban watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Seybold, E. C.; Gold, A.; Inamdar, S. P.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Bowden, W. B.; Vaughan, M.; Addy, K.; Shanley, J. B.; Andrew, V.; Sleeper, R.; Levia, D. F., Jr.; Adair, C.; Wemple, B. C.; Schroth, A. W.

2017-12-01

Land use/land cover change has been shown to have significant impacts on nutrient loading to aquatic systems, and has been linked to coastal zone hypoxia and eutrophication of lake ecosystems. While it is clear that changes in land use/land cover are associated with changes in aquatic ecosystem function, a mechanistic understanding of how nutrient fluxes from distinct land cover classes respond to hydrologic events on event and seasonal scales remains unknown. Recent advances in the availability of high-frequency water quality sensors provide an opportunity to assess these relationships at a high temporal resolution. We deployed a network of in-situ spectrophotometers in watersheds with predominantly forested, agricultural, and urban land uses that spanned a latitudinal gradient in the northeastern US from Vermont to Delaware. Our study sought to assess how land cover affected the timing and magnitude of fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) from watersheds with distinct land uses, and to determine whether these relationships varied regionally. We found systematic differences in the timing and magnitude of C and N fluxes and strong variation in the annual mass fluxes from these distinct land cover classes. In particular, we found that while the phenology of C and N fluxes varied across land uses, there were distinct regional similarities in the C and N flux regimes within a given land use class. We also found strong inter-annual variability in carbon and nitrogen fluxes in response to inter-annual variability in precipitation and discharge, suggesting a high degree of hydrologic control over nutrient loading. These findings also emphasize the potential for climate change, and in particular precipitation variability, to drive strong variation in the magnitude of downstream nutrient flux to receiving lakes and estuaries. Our study emphasizes the pervasive influence of land cover and its effects on water quality, and also highlights the strong signature of

Large inter annual variation in air quality during the annual festival 'Diwali' in an Indian megacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Parkhi, Neha; Chate, Dilip; Ghude, Sachin D; Peshin, Sunil; Mahajan, Anoop; Srinivas, Reka; Surendran, Divya; Ali, Kaushar; Singh, Siddhartha; Trimbake, Hanumant; Beig, Gufran

2016-05-01

A network of air quality and weather monitoring stations was established under the System of Air Quality Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) project in Delhi. We report observations of ozone (O3), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) before, during and after the Diwali in two consecutive years, i.e., November 2010 and October 2011. The Diwali days are characterised by large firework displays throughout India. The observations show that the background concentrations of particulate matter are between 5 and 10 times the permissible limits in Europe and the United States. During the Diwali-2010, the highest observed PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentration is as high as 2070µg/m3 and 1620μg/m(3), respectively (24hr mean), which was about 20 and 27 times to National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). For Diwali-2011, the increase in PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentrations was much less with their peaks of 600 and of 390μg/m(3) respectively, as compared to the background concentrations. Contrary to previous reports, firework display was not found to strongly influence the NOx, and O3 mixing ratios, with the increase within the observed variability in the background. CO mixing ratios showed an increase. We show that the large difference in 2010 and 2011 pollutant concentrations is controlled by weather parameters. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modelling temporal and large-scale spatial variability of soil respiration from soil water availability, temperature and vegetation productivity indices

Science.gov (United States)

Reichstein, M.; Rey, A.; Freibauer, A.; Tenhunen, J.; Valentini, R.; Soil Respiration Synthesis Team

2003-04-01

Field-chamber measurements of soil respiration from 17 different forest and shrubland sites in Europe and North America were summarized and analyzed with the goal to develop a model describing seasonal, inter-annual and spatial variability of soil respiration as affected by water availability, temperature and site properties. The analysis was performed at a daily and at a monthly time step. With the daily time step, the relative soil water content in the upper soil layer expressed as a fraction of field capacity was a good predictor of soil respiration at all sites. Among the site variables tested, those related to site productivity (e.g. leaf area index) correlated significantly with soil respiration, while carbon pool variables like standing biomass or the litter and soil carbon stocks did not show a clear relationship with soil respiration. Furthermore, it was evidenced that the effect of precipitation on soil respiration stretched beyond its direct effect via soil moisture. A general statistical non-linear regression model was developed to describe soil respiration as dependent on soil temperature, soil water content and site-specific maximum leaf area index. The model explained nearly two thirds of the temporal and inter-site variability of soil respiration with a mean absolute error of 0.82 µmol m-2 s-1. The parameterised model exhibits the following principal properties: 1) At a relative amount of upper-layer soil water of 16% of field capacity half-maximal soil respiration rates are reached. 2) The apparent temperature sensitivity of soil respiration measured as Q10 varies between 1 and 5 depending on soil temperature and water content. 3) Soil respiration under reference moisture and temperature conditions is linearly related to maximum site leaf area index. At a monthly time-scale we employed the approach by Raich et al. (2002, Global Change Biol. 8, 800-812) that used monthly precipitation and air temperature to globally predict soil respiration (T

Variable Reporting by Authors Presenting Arthroplasty Research at Multiple Annual Conferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Choo, Kevin J; Yi, Paul H; Burns, Robert; Mohan, Rohith; Wong, Kevin

2017-01-01

Prior studies have demonstrated discrepancies in financial conflict of interest (COI) disclosure among authors presenting research at multiple spine and sports medicine conferences. The purpose of this study was to quantify the variability of self-reported financial disclosures of individual authors presenting at multiple arthroplasty conferences during the same year. The author disclosure information published for the 2012 annual meetings of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS), American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons, the Hip Society, and the Knee Society were compiled. We tabulated the author disclosures, the number of companies/entities represented, and the types of disclosures reported. The disclosures made by authors presenting at more than one meeting were then compared for discrepancies. Of the 209 authors who presented at both the AAOS and American Association of Hip and Knee Surgeons meetings, 79 (37.79%) demonstrated discrepancies in their disclosures with 7 (8.8%) reporting no disclosures to the AAOS. Of the 84 authors who presented at both the AAOS and Hip Society meetings, 1 (1.19%) had discrepancies in their disclosures. Of the 52 authors who presented at both the AAOS and Knee Society meetings, 2 (3.84%) had discrepancies in their disclosures. There is variability in reported financial COIs by authors presenting at multiple arthroplasty conferences within the same year. Further work is warranted to improve transparency of COI disclosures among arthroplasty surgeons presenting research at national meetings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Density functional theory study of inter-layer coupling in bulk tin selenide

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Hong-Yue; Lü, Jing-Tao

2018-03-01

We study the inter-layer coupling in bulk tin selenide (SnSe) through density functional theory based calculations. Different approximations for the exchange-correlation functionals and the van der Waals interaction are employed. By performing comparison with graphite, MoS2 and black phosphorus, we analyze the inter-layer coupling from different points of view, including the binding energy, the low frequency inter-layer optical phonons, and the inter-layer charge transfer. We find that, there is a strong charge transfer between layers of SnSe, resulting in the strongest inter-layer coupling. Moreover, the charge transfer renders the inter-layer coupling in SnSe not of van der Waals type. Mechanical exfoliation has been used to fabricate mono- or few-layer graphene, MoS2 and black phosphorus. But, our results show that it may be difficult to apply similar technique to SnSe.

The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

KAUST Repository

Meng, Xianhong

2013-05-05

strengthening of the second mechanism. That is, the second mechanism is stronger in a drought year compared to a normal year and this difference is larger than for the first mechanism. When both mechanisms are active, the second mechanism tends to dominate across the model domain, particularly during the 2002 drought period. The introduction of observed inter-annual variations in albedo produces an enhancement of the first mechanism and a weakening of the second mechanism during the onset of the drought. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Radial Distribution Functions of Strongly Coupled Two-Temperature Plasmas

Science.gov (United States)

Shaffer, Nathaniel R.; Tiwari, Sanat Kumar; Baalrud, Scott D.

2017-10-01

We present tests of three theoretical models for the radial distribution functions (RDFs) in two-temperature strongly coupled plasmas. RDFs are useful in extending plasma thermodynamics and kinetic theory to strong coupling, but they are usually known only for thermal equilibrium or for approximate one-component model plasmas. Accurate two-component modeling is necessary to understand the impact of strong coupling on inter-species transport, e.g., ambipolar diffusion and electron-ion temperature relaxation. We demonstrate that the Seuferling-Vogel-Toeppfer (SVT) extension of the hypernetted chain equations not only gives accurate RDFs (as compared with classical molecular dynamics simulations), but also has a simple connection with the Yukawa OCP model. This connection gives a practical means to recover the structure of the electron background from knowledge of the ion-ion RDF alone. Using the model RDFs in Effective Potential Theory, we report the first predictions of inter-species transport coefficients of strongly coupled plasmas far from equilibrium. This work is supported by NSF Grant No. PHY-1453736, AFSOR Award No. FA9550-16-1-0221, and used XSEDE computational resources.

Spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain under different return periods at the Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roriz Luciano Machado

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of maximum daily rain and its return period in a region is an important tool to soil conservation, hydraulic engineering and preservation of road projects. The objective of this work was to evaluate the spatial variability of maximum annual daily rain considering different return periods, at the Rio de Janeiro State. The data set was composed by historical series of 119 rain gauges, for 36 years of observation. The return periods, estimated by Gumbel distribution, were 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The spatial variability of the return periods was evaluated by semivariograms. All the return periods presented spatial dependence, with exponential and spherical model fitted to the experimental semivariograms. The parameters of the fitted semivariogram model were very similar; however, it was observed the presence of higher nugget effects for semivariograms of longer return periods. The values of maximum annual daily average rain in all the return periods increased from north to south and from countryside to the coast. In the region between the Serra do Mar range and the coast, besides increasing in magnitude, an increase in the spatial variability of the studied values with increasing return periods was also noticed. This behavior is probably caused by the orographic effect. The interpolated maps were more erratic for higher return periods and at the North, Northeast and Coastal Plain regions, in which the installation of new pluviometric stations are recommended.

CFD Study on Aerodynamic Power Output Changes with Inter-Turbine Spacing Variation for a 6 MW Offshore Wind Farm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nak Joon Choi

2014-11-01

Full Text Available This study examined the aerodynamic power output change of wind turbines with inter-turbine spacing variation for a 6 MW wind farm composed of three sets of 2 MW wind turbines using computational fluid dynamics (CFD. The wind farm layout design is becoming increasingly important as the use of wind energy is steadily increasing. Among the many wind farm layout design parameters, the inter-turbine spacing is a key factor in the initial investment cost, annual energy production and maintenance cost. The inter-turbine spacing should be determined to maximize the annual energy production and minimize the wake effect, turbulence effect and fatigue load during the service lifetime of wind turbines. Therefore, some compromise between the aerodynamic power output of wind turbines and the inter-turbine spacing is needed. An actuator disc model with the addition of a momentum source was not used, and instead, a full 3-dimensional model with a tower and nacelle was used for CFD analysis because of its great technical significance. The CFD analysis results, such as the aerodynamic power output, axial direction wind speed change, pressure drop across the rotor of wind turbine, and wind speed deficit due to the wake effect with inter-turbine spacing variation, were studied. The results of this study can be applied effectively to wind farm layout design and evaluation.

Hydrology of the North Klondike River: carbon export, water balance and inter-annual climate influences within a sub-alpine permafrost catchment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lapp, Anthony; Clark, Ian; Macumber, Andrew; Patterson, Tim

2017-10-01

Arctic and sub-arctic watersheds are undergoing significant changes due to recent climate warming and degrading permafrost, engendering enhanced monitoring of arctic rivers. Smaller catchments provide understanding of discharge, solute flux and groundwater recharge at the process level that contributes to an understanding of how larger arctic watersheds are responding to climate change. The North Klondike River, located in west central Yukon, is a sub-alpine permafrost catchment, which maintains an active hydrological monitoring station with a record of >40 years. In addition to being able to monitor intra-annual variability, this data set allows for more complex analysis of streamflow records. Streamflow data, geochemistry and stable isotope data for 2014 show a groundwater-dominated system, predominantly recharged during periods of snowmelt. Radiocarbon is shown to be a valuable tracer of soil zone recharge processes and carbon sources. Winter groundwater baseflow contributes 20 % of total annual discharge, and accounts for up to 50 % of total river discharge during the spring and summer months. Although total stream discharge remains unchanged, mean annual groundwater baseflow has increased over the 40-year monitoring period. Wavelet analysis reveals a catchment that responds to El Niño and longer solar cycles, as well as climatic shifts such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Dedicated to Professor Peter Fritz on the occasion of his 80th birthday.

Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables from the GLDAS models

Science.gov (United States)

Winska, Malgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Salstein, David

2017-12-01

Continental hydrological loading by land water, snow and ice is a process that is important for the full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study, we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (as hydrological angular momentum, HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of the land-based hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of variables from different hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt and soil moisture, on polar motion excitations at annual and short-term timescales. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion are determined using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. Furthermore, we use time-variable gravity field solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine the hydrological mass effects on polar motion excitation. We first conduct an intercomparison of the maps of variations of regional hydrological excitation functions, timing and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs. Next, we estimate the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation as a residual by subtracting the contributions of atmospheric angular momentum and oceanic angular momentum. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared with those hydrological signals determined from residuals of the observed polar motion excitation series. The results will help us understand the relative importance of polar motion excitation within the individual hydrological processes, based on hydrological modeling. This method will allow us to estimate how well the polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges can be closed.

Strong-field Breit–Wheeler pair production in two consecutive laser pulses with variable time delay

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin J.A. Jansen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Photoproduction of electron–positron pairs by the strong-field Breit–Wheeler process in an intense laser field is studied. The laser field is assumed to consist of two consecutive short pulses, with a variable time delay in between. By numerical calculations within the framework of scalar quantum electrodynamics, we demonstrate that the time delay exerts a strong impact on the pair-creation probability. For the case when both pulses are identical, the effect is traced back to the relative quantum phase of the interfering S-matrix amplitudes and explained within a simplified analytical model. Conversely, when the two laser pulses differ from each other, the pair-creation probability depends not only on the time delay but, in general, also on the temporal order of the pulses.

Hydroxyl layer: trend of number density and intra-annual variability

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnemann, G. R.; Hartogh, P.; Berger, U.; Grygalashvyly, M.

2015-06-01

The layer of vibrationally excited hydroxyl (OH*) near the mesopause in Earth's atmosphere is widely used to derive the temperature at this height and to observe dynamical processes such as gravity waves. The concentration of OH* is controlled by the product of atomic hydrogen, with ozone creating a layer of enhanced concentration in the mesopause region. However, the basic influences on the OH* layer are atomic oxygen and temperature. The long-term monitoring of this layer provides information on a changing atmosphere. It is important to know which proportion of a trend results from anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere and which proportion reflects natural variations. In a previous paper (Grygalashvyly et al., 2014), the trend of the height of the layer and the trend in temperature were investigated particularly in midlatitudes on the basis of our coupled dynamic and chemical transport model LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere). In this paper we consider the trend for the number density between the years 1961 and 2009 and analyze the reason of the trends on a global scale. Further, we consider intra-annual variations. Temperature and wind have the strongest impacts on the trend. Surprisingly, the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) has no clear influence on the chemistry of OH*. The main reason for this lies in the fact that, in the production term of OH*, if atomic hydrogen increases due to increasing humidity of the middle atmosphere by methane oxidation, ozone decreases. The maximum of the OH* layer is found in the mesopause region and is very variable. The mesopause region is a very intricate domain marked by changeable dynamics and strong gradients of all chemically active minor constituents determining the OH* chemistry. The OH* concentration responds, in part, very sensitively to small changes in these parameters. The cause for this behavior is given by nonlinear reactions of the photochemical system being a nonlinear enforced chemical oscillator

Hydroxyl layer: trend of number density and intra-annual variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. R. Sonnemann

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The layer of vibrationally excited hydroxyl (OH* near the mesopause in Earth's atmosphere is widely used to derive the temperature at this height and to observe dynamical processes such as gravity waves. The concentration of OH* is controlled by the product of atomic hydrogen, with ozone creating a layer of enhanced concentration in the mesopause region. However, the basic influences on the OH* layer are atomic oxygen and temperature. The long-term monitoring of this layer provides information on a changing atmosphere. It is important to know which proportion of a trend results from anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere and which proportion reflects natural variations. In a previous paper (Grygalashvyly et al., 2014, the trend of the height of the layer and the trend in temperature were investigated particularly in midlatitudes on the basis of our coupled dynamic and chemical transport model LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere. In this paper we consider the trend for the number density between the years 1961 and 2009 and analyze the reason of the trends on a global scale. Further, we consider intra-annual variations. Temperature and wind have the strongest impacts on the trend. Surprisingly, the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs has no clear influence on the chemistry of OH*. The main reason for this lies in the fact that, in the production term of OH*, if atomic hydrogen increases due to increasing humidity of the middle atmosphere by methane oxidation, ozone decreases. The maximum of the OH* layer is found in the mesopause region and is very variable. The mesopause region is a very intricate domain marked by changeable dynamics and strong gradients of all chemically active minor constituents determining the OH* chemistry. The OH* concentration responds, in part, very sensitively to small changes in these parameters. The cause for this behavior is given by nonlinear reactions of the photochemical system being a nonlinear enforced

Inter- and intra-observer variability of time-lapse annotations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundvall, Linda; Ingerslev, Hans Jakob; Breth Knudsen, Ulla

2013-01-01

. This provides the basis for further investigation of embryo assessment and selection by time-lapse imaging in prospective trials. Study funding/competing interest(s): Research at the Fertility Clinic was funded by an unrestricted grant from Ferring and MSD. The authors have no competing interests to declare.......Study question: How consistent is the time-lapse annotation of dynamic and static morphologic parameters of embryo development, within and between observers? Summary answer: The assessment of dynamic parameters is characterized by almost perfect agreement within and between observers. What is known...... already: The commonly employed method used to assess embryos in IVF treatments is based on static evaluation of morphology in a microscope, but this is limited by substantial intra- and inter-observer variation. Time-lapse imaging has been proposed as a method to refine embryo selection by adding new...

Inter-laboratory agreement on embryo classification and clinical decision: Conventional morphological assessment vs. time lapse.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Granados, Luis; Serrano, María; González-Utor, Antonio; Ortíz, Nereyda; Badajoz, Vicente; Olaya, Enrique; Prados, Nicolás; Boada, Montse; Castilla, Jose A

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine inter-laboratory variability on embryo assessment using time-lapse platform and conventional morphological assessment. This study compares the data obtained from a pilot study of external quality control (EQC) of time lapse, performed in 2014, with the classical EQC of the Spanish Society for the Study of Reproductive Biology (ASEBIR) performed in 2013 and 2014. In total, 24 laboratories (8 using EmbryoScope™, 15 using Primo Vision™ and one with both platforms) took part in the pilot study. The clinics that used EmbryoScope™ analysed 31 embryos and those using Primo Vision™ analysed 35. The classical EQC was implemented by 39 clinics, based on an analysis of 25 embryos per year. Both groups were required to evaluate various qualitative morphological variables (cell fragmentation, the presence of vacuoles, blastomere asymmetry and multinucleation), to classify the embryos in accordance with ASEBIR criteria and to stipulate the clinical decision taken. In the EQC time-lapse pilot study, the groups were asked to determine, as well as the above characteristics, the embryo development times, the number, opposition and size of pronuclei, the direct division of 1 into 3 cells and/or of 3 into 5 cells and false divisions. The degree of agreement was determined by calculating the intra-class correlation coefficients and the coefficient of variation for the quantitative variables and the Gwet index for the qualitative variables. For both EmbryoScope™ and Primo Vision™, two periods of greater inter-laboratory variability were observed in the times of embryo development events. One peak of variability was recorded among the laboratories addressing the first embryo events (extrusion of the second polar body and the appearance of pronuclei); the second peak took place between the times corresponding to the 8-cell and morula stages. In most of the qualitative variables analysed regarding embryo development, there was almost

Inter-laboratory agreement on embryo classification and clinical decision: Conventional morphological assessment vs. time lapse.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Martínez-Granados

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to determine inter-laboratory variability on embryo assessment using time-lapse platform and conventional morphological assessment. This study compares the data obtained from a pilot study of external quality control (EQC of time lapse, performed in 2014, with the classical EQC of the Spanish Society for the Study of Reproductive Biology (ASEBIR performed in 2013 and 2014. In total, 24 laboratories (8 using EmbryoScope™, 15 using Primo Vision™ and one with both platforms took part in the pilot study. The clinics that used EmbryoScope™ analysed 31 embryos and those using Primo Vision™ analysed 35. The classical EQC was implemented by 39 clinics, based on an analysis of 25 embryos per year. Both groups were required to evaluate various qualitative morphological variables (cell fragmentation, the presence of vacuoles, blastomere asymmetry and multinucleation, to classify the embryos in accordance with ASEBIR criteria and to stipulate the clinical decision taken. In the EQC time-lapse pilot study, the groups were asked to determine, as well as the above characteristics, the embryo development times, the number, opposition and size of pronuclei, the direct division of 1 into 3 cells and/or of 3 into 5 cells and false divisions. The degree of agreement was determined by calculating the intra-class correlation coefficients and the coefficient of variation for the quantitative variables and the Gwet index for the qualitative variables. For both EmbryoScope™ and Primo Vision™, two periods of greater inter-laboratory variability were observed in the times of embryo development events. One peak of variability was recorded among the laboratories addressing the first embryo events (extrusion of the second polar body and the appearance of pronuclei; the second peak took place between the times corresponding to the 8-cell and morula stages. In most of the qualitative variables analysed regarding embryo development, there

Distribution and predictors of wing shape and size variability in three sister species of solitary bees.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Dellicour

Full Text Available Morphological traits can be highly variable over time in a particular geographical area. Different selective pressures shape those traits, which is crucial in evolutionary biology. Among these traits, insect wing morphometry has already been widely used to describe phenotypic variability at the inter-specific level. On the contrary, fewer studies have focused on intra-specific wing morphometric variability. Yet, such investigations are relevant to study potential convergences of variation that could highlight micro-evolutionary processes. The recent sampling and sequencing of three solitary bees of the genus Melitta across their entire species range provides an excellent opportunity to jointly analyse genetic and morphometric variability. In the present study, we first aim to analyse the spatial distribution of the wing shape and centroid size (used as a proxy for body size variability. Secondly, we aim to test different potential predictors of this variability at both the intra- and inter-population levels, which includes genetic variability, but also geographic locations and distances, elevation, annual mean temperature and precipitation. The comparison of spatial distribution of intra-population morphometric diversity does not reveal any convergent pattern between species, thus undermining the assumption of a potential local and selective adaptation at the population level. Regarding intra-specific wing shape differentiation, our results reveal that some tested predictors, such as geographic and genetic distances, are associated with a significant correlation for some species. However, none of these predictors are systematically identified for the three species as an important factor that could explain the intra-specific morphometric variability. As a conclusion, for the three solitary bee species and at the scale of this study, our results clearly tend to discard the assumption of the existence of a common pattern of intra-specific signal

Distribution and predictors of wing shape and size variability in three sister species of solitary bees.

Science.gov (United States)

Dellicour, Simon; Gerard, Maxence; Prunier, Jérôme G; Dewulf, Alexandre; Kuhlmann, Michael; Michez, Denis

2017-01-01

Morphological traits can be highly variable over time in a particular geographical area. Different selective pressures shape those traits, which is crucial in evolutionary biology. Among these traits, insect wing morphometry has already been widely used to describe phenotypic variability at the inter-specific level. On the contrary, fewer studies have focused on intra-specific wing morphometric variability. Yet, such investigations are relevant to study potential convergences of variation that could highlight micro-evolutionary processes. The recent sampling and sequencing of three solitary bees of the genus Melitta across their entire species range provides an excellent opportunity to jointly analyse genetic and morphometric variability. In the present study, we first aim to analyse the spatial distribution of the wing shape and centroid size (used as a proxy for body size) variability. Secondly, we aim to test different potential predictors of this variability at both the intra- and inter-population levels, which includes genetic variability, but also geographic locations and distances, elevation, annual mean temperature and precipitation. The comparison of spatial distribution of intra-population morphometric diversity does not reveal any convergent pattern between species, thus undermining the assumption of a potential local and selective adaptation at the population level. Regarding intra-specific wing shape differentiation, our results reveal that some tested predictors, such as geographic and genetic distances, are associated with a significant correlation for some species. However, none of these predictors are systematically identified for the three species as an important factor that could explain the intra-specific morphometric variability. As a conclusion, for the three solitary bee species and at the scale of this study, our results clearly tend to discard the assumption of the existence of a common pattern of intra-specific signal/structure within the

Change features and regional distribution of temperature trend and variability joint mode in mainland China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xi; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Feng, Jieling; Wang, Ye

2018-05-01

Adaption for temperature should be suitable to local conditions for regional differences in temperature change features. This paper proposed to utilize nine temperature modes that joint the trend (increasing/decreasing/unchanged) with variability (intensifying/weakening/unchanged) to investigate features of temperature change in mainland China. Monthly temperature data over the period 1960-2013 were obtained from 522 national basic and reference meteorological stations. Here, temperature trend (TT) was reflected by the trend of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the uptrend (downtrend) of inter-monthly sliding standard deviation (SSD) series with a sliding length of 29 years (348 months) was used for representing the intensification (weakening) of temperature variability (TV). The Mann-Kendall method and the least squares method were applied to assess the significance and quantify the magnitude of trend in MAT and SSD time series, respectively. The results show that there is a consistent warming trend throughout the country except for only three stations in which a cooling trend is identified. Moreover, the overall increasing rate in the north of 35° N is the highest, over 0.4 °C/decade for most stations. TV is weakened for almost 98% of the stations, indicating the low instability of temperature at a national scale. Finally, temperature mode (TM), for more than 90% of the stations, is the combination of an increasing TT with a weakened TV (mode 8). So, it is more important for people to adapt to the increasing temperature in these regions. Compared to using annual temperature data to calculate SSD, monthly data can accurately reflect the inter-monthly change of temperature and reserve more initial characteristics of temperature.

Transverse transport in coupled strongly correlated electronic chains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capponi, S.; Poilblanc, D.

1997-01-01

One-particle interchain hopping in a system of coupled Luttinger liquids is investigated by use of exact diagonalizations techniques. We give numerical evidence that inter-chain coherent hopping (defined by a non-vanishing splitting) can be totally suppressed for the Luttinger liquid exponent α ∝ 0.4 or even smaller α values. The transverse conductivity is shown to exhibit a strong incoherent part even when coherent inter-chain hopping is believed to occur. Implications for the optical experiments in quasi-1D organic or high-T c superconductors is outlined. (orig.)

Using non-systematic surveys to investigate effects of regional climate variability on Australasian gannets in the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, Mridula; Dassis, Mariela; Benn, Emily; Stockin, Karen A.; Martinez, Emmanuelle; Machovsky-Capuska, Gabriel E.

2015-05-01

Few studies have investigated regional and natural climate variability on seabird populations using ocean reanalysis datasets (e.g. Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA)) that integrate atmospheric information to supplement ocean observations and provide improved estimates of ocean conditions. Herein we use a non-systematic dataset on Australasian gannets (Morus serrator) from 2001 to 2009 to identify potential connections between Gannet Sightings Per Unit Effort (GSPUE) and climate and oceanographic variability in a region of known importance for breeding seabirds, the Hauraki Gulf (HG), New Zealand. While no statistically significant relationships between GSPUE and global climate indices were determined, there was a significant correlation between GSPUE and regional SST anomaly for HG. Also, there appears to be a strong link between global climate indices and regional climate in the HG. Further, based on cross-correlation function coefficients and lagged multiple regression models, we identified potential leading and lagging climate variables, and climate variables but with limited predictive capacity in forecasting future GSPUE. Despite significant inter-annual variability and marginally cooler SSTs since 2001, gannet sightings appear to be increasing. We hypothesize that at present underlying physical changes in the marine ecosystem may be insufficient to affect supply of preferred gannet main prey (pilchard Sardinops spp.), which tolerate a wide thermal range. Our study showcases the potential scientific value of lengthy non-systematic data streams and when designed properly (i.e., contain abundance, flock size, and spatial data), can yield useful information in climate impact studies on seabirds and other marine fauna. Such information can be invaluable for enhancing conservation measures for protected species in fiscally constrained research environments.

The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Otteraa, Odd Helge [Uni Bjerknes Centre, Uni Research, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Gao, Yongqi [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Wang, Huijun [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Chinese Academy of Sciences, Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

2012-12-15

In this study, the effects of volcanic forcing on North Pacific climate variability, on interannual to decadal time scales, are examined using climate model simulations covering the last 600 years. The model used is the Bergen Climate Model, a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. It is found that natural external forcings, such as tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) and variations in total solar irradiance, play an important role in regulating North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV). In response to tropical SVEs the lower stratospheric pole-to-equator temperature gradient is enhanced. The North polar vortex is strengthened, which forces a significant positive Arctic Oscillation. At the same time, dipole zonal wind anomalies associated with strong polar vortex propagate downward from the lower stratosphere. Through positive feedbacks in the troposphere, the surface westerly winds across the central North Pacific are significantly weakened, and positive sea level pressure anomalies are formed in the North Pacific. This anomalous surface circulation results in changes in the net heat fluxes and the oceanic advection across the North Pacific. As a result of this, warm water converges in the subtropical western North Pacific, where the surface waters in addition are heated by significantly reduced latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean. In the eastern and high-latitude North Pacific the ocean loses more heat, and large-scale decreases in sea surface temperatures are found. The overall response of this chain of events is that the North Pacific enters a negative phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and this negative phase of the PDO is maintained for several years. It is thus concluded that the volcanic forcing plays a key role in the phasing of the PDO. The model results furthermore highlight the important role of troposphere-stratosphere coupling, tropical-extratropical teleconnections and extratropical ocean

Results of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study

Science.gov (United States)

Costa, Antonio; Suzuki, Yujiro; Cerminara, M.; Devenish, Ben J.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Herzog, Michael; Van Eaton, Alexa; Denby, L.C.; Bursik, Marcus; de' Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Engwell, S.; Neri, Augusto; Barsotti, Sara; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Girault, F.; Carazzo, G.; Tait, S.; Kaminski, E.; Mastin, Larry G.; Woodhouse, Mark J.; Phillips, Jeremy C.; Hogg, Andrew J.; Degruyter, Wim; Bonadonna, Costanza

2016-01-01

This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~ 20% for the weak plume and ~ 10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.

A Method for Estimating BeiDou Inter-frequency Satellite Clock Bias

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LI Haojun

2016-02-01

Full Text Available A new method for estimating the BeiDou inter-frequency satellite clock bias is proposed, considering the shortage of the current methods. The constant and variable parts of the inter-frequency satellite clock bias are considered in the new method. The data from 10 observation stations are processed to validate the new method. The characterizations of the BeiDou inter-frequency satellite clock bias are also analyzed using the computed results. The results of the BeiDou inter-frequency satellite clock bias indicate that it is stable in the short term. The estimated BeiDou inter-frequency satellite clock bias results are molded. The model results show that the 10 parameters of model for each satellite can express the BeiDou inter-frequency satellite clock bias well and the accuracy reaches cm level. When the model parameters of the first day are used to compute the BeiDou inter-frequency satellite clock bias of the second day, the accuracy also reaches cm level. Based on the stability and modeling, a strategy for the BeiDou satellite clock service is presented to provide the reference of our BeiDou.

1992 Annual report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Annual report of the Institut de Physique Nucleaire at Orsay (France). The main themes are presented. Concerning experimental research: nuclear structure, ground states and low energy excited states, high excitation energy nuclear states, nuclear matter and nucleus-nucleus collision, intermediate energy nuclear physics, radiochemistry, inter-disciplinary research, scientific information and communication; concerning theoretical physics: particles and fields (formal aspects and hadronic physics), chaotic systems and semi-classical methods, few body problems, nucleus-nucleus scattering, nucleus spectroscopy and clusters, statistical physics and condensed matter; concerning general activities and technological research: accelerators, detectors, applications in cryogenics, data processing, Isolde and Orion equipment

Forecasting Sensorimotor Adaptability from Baseline Inter-Trial Correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Beaton, K. H.; Bloomberg, J. J.

2014-01-01

One of the greatest challenges surrounding adaptation to the spaceflight environment is the large variability in symptoms, and corresponding functional impairments, from one crewmember to the next. This renders preflight training and countermeasure development difficult, as a "one-size-fits-all" approach is inappropriate. Therefore, it would be highly advantageous to know ahead of time which crewmembers might have more difficulty adjusting to the novel g-levels inherent to spaceflight. Such knowledge could guide individually customized countermeasures, which would enable more efficient use of crew time, both preflight and inflight, and provide better outcomes. The primary goal of this project is to look for a baseline performance metric that can forecast sensorimotor adaptability without exposure to an adaptive stimulus. We propose a novel hypothesis that considers baseline inter-trial correlations, the trial-to-trial fluctuations in motor performance, as a predictor of individual sensorimotor adaptive capabilities. To-date, a strong relationship has been found between baseline inter-trial correlations and adaptability in two oculomotor systems. For this project, we will explore an analogous predictive mechanism in the locomotion system. METHODS: Baseline Inter-trial Correlations: Inter-trial correlations specify the relationships among repeated trials of a given task that transpire as a consequence of correcting for previous performance errors over multiple timescales. We can quantify the strength of inter-trial correlations by measuring the decay of the autocorrelation function (ACF), which describes how rapidly information from past trials is "forgotten." Processes whose ACFs decay more slowly exhibit longer-term inter-trial correlations (longer memory processes), while processes whose ACFs decay more rapidly exhibit shorterterm inter-trial correlations (shorter memory processes). Longer-term correlations reflect low-frequency activity, which is more easily

Sea surface temperature inter-hemispheric dipole and its relation to tropical precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Jin, Fei-Fei

2013-01-01

Using different SST datasets, the variability of zonal mean SSTs is investigated. Besides the global warming mode, the variability is dominated by one equatorially symmetric mode and one antisymmetric mode. The former is most pronounced in the Pacific and dominated by interannual variability, corresponding to the ENSO signature. The latter features an inter-hemispheric dipole-like pattern and is referred to as the SST inter-hemispheric dipole (SSTID). The SSTID and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation are found to be related but distinct in the spatial pattern. Observational analysis shows that the SSTID significantly influences tropical rainfall and contributes to the north–south asymmetry of tropical precipitation on multidecadal timescales. The observed SSTID and its relation to the tropical rainfall are realistically reproduced in a control simulation with the UKMO-HadCM3 climate model. Results from the UKMO-HadCM3 simulation suggest that the SSTID is related to the variability of the global ocean northward cross-equatorial heat transport. (letter)

Impacts of Climate Variability on Non-native Plant Invasion in the Western U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, B. A.

2006-12-01

Plant invasions are changing ecosystem structure and function throughout the United States. In many areas of the west, invasive species such as tamarisk (Tamarix spp.), cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), and yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) dominate landscapes. Expansion of these species is occurring at a staggering rate, and invasion rates may change in the future as native ecosystems become more or less susceptible to invasion because of changes in climate. For example, evidence suggests that some plant invaders are favored under increased ambient CO2 levels, potentially leading to increased invasion with continued greenhouse gas emissions. In this work, I predict how western invasive plant species may also be affected by changes in climate variability. According to IPCC reports, rising ocean temperatures may change the frequency and intensity of El Niño events, potentially resulting in wetter El Niño years and/or more extreme and lengthier drought. In semi-arid systems, changing frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events may further shift the competitive balance between native and invasive species. For example, cheatgrass and yellow starthistle, both annual invaders, display high inter-annual variability in response to water availability. As a result, plants are larger and produce more seeds than native competitors during extreme wet years. This phenological response is so strong in cheatgrass communities that it can be observed in regional satellite records. Further, dense cheatgrass growth leads to a secondary feedback in the form of wildfire; higher density cheatgrass increases fire frequency in shrublands and enables further cheatgrass colonization. In this work, I synthesize knowledge of invasive plant phenological response under different climate conditions, drawing on information gathered through geographical mapping efforts at state or regional levels by university and agency researchers. Using the ranges of climate tolerance from current

Annual report of National Institute for Fusion Science. April 2011 - March 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This annual report summarizes the research activities at NIFS (the National Institute for Fusion Science) between April 2011 and March 2012. NIFS is pursuing the integration of science and technology to realize a fusion power plant. The systematization of plasma physics, and research and development of reactor relevant engineering are key elements in our strategy. NIFS has been exploiting its role as an inter-university research organization and executing a variety of excellent collaborating studies together with universities and research institutes abroad as well as in Japan. The major projects of NIFS are the Large Helical Device (LHD) Project, the Numerical Simulation Research Project, the Fusion Engineering Research Project and the Coordination Research Project. These major projects are accompanied by unique supporting research. Advanced engineering and fusion reactor design studies are strongly promoted. (J.P.N.)

Annual report of National Institute for Fusion Science. April 2009 - March 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This annual report summarizes the research activities at NIFS (the National Institute for Fusion Science) between April 2009 and March 2010. NIFS is pursuing the integration of science and technology to realize a fusion power plant. The systematization of plasma physics, and research and development of reactor relevant engineering are key elements in our strategy. NIFS has been exploiting its role as an inter-university research organization and executing a variety of excellent collaborating studies together with universities and research institutes abroad as well as in Japan. The major projects of NIFS are the Large Helical Device (LHD) Project, the Numerical Simulation Research Project, the Fusion Engineering Research Project and the Coordination Research Project. These major projects are accompanied by unique supporting research. Advanced engineering and fusion reactor design studies are strongly promoted. (J.P.N.)

Annual report of National Institute for Fusion Science. April 2012 - March 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This annual report summarizes the research activities at NIFS (the National Institute for Fusion Science) between April 2012 and March 2013. NIFS is pursuing the integration of science and technology to realize a fusion power plant. The systematization of plasma physics, and research and development of reactor relevant engineering are key elements in our strategy. NIFS has been exploiting its role as an inter-university research organization and executing a variety of excellent collaborating studies together with universities and research institutes abroad as well as in Japan. The major projects of NIFS are the Large Helical Device (LHD) Project, the Numerical Simulation Research Project, the Fusion Engineering Research Project and the Coordination Research Project. These major projects are accompanied by unique supporting research. Advanced engineering and fusion reactor design studies are strongly promoted. (J.P.N.)

Father-Son Inter-Generational Transmission of Authoritarian Paternal Attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Peretti, Peter O.; Statum, Jo Ann

1984-01-01

Attempted to determine authoritarian paternal attitude inter-generational transmission in fathers and sons (N=75). Results suggested that authoritarian paternal attitudes could be indicated in terms of five factors: Dominant, Rigidity, Conformity, Intolerant, and Uncreative; and that the sons expressed strongly the authoritarian attitudes of their…

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2017-09-08

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2017-09-08

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2017-09-01

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth

2018-06-01

This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.

Holocene Multi-Decadal to Millennial-Scale Hydrologic Variability on the South American Altiplano

Science.gov (United States)

Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Burns, S.

2006-12-01

On orbital timescales, lacustrine sediment records in the tropical central Andes show massive changes in lake level due to mechanisms related to global-scale drivers, varying at precessional timescales. Here we use stable isotopic and diatom records from two lakes in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin to reconstruct multi- decadal to millennial scale precipitation variability during the last 7000 to 8000 years. The records are tightly coupled at multi-decadal to millennial scales with each other and with lake-level fluctuations in Lake Titicaca, indicating that the lakes are recording a regional climate signal. A quantitative reconstruction of precipitation from stable isotopic data indicates that the central Andes underwent significant wet to dry alternations at multi- centennial frequencies with an amplitude of 30 to 40% of total precipitation. A strong millennial-scale component, similar in duration to periods of increased ice rafted debris flux in the North Atlantic, is observed in both lake records, suggesting that tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability may partly control regional precipitation. No clear relationship is evident between these records and the inferred ENSO history from Lago Pallcacocha in the northern tropical Andes. In the instrumental period, regional precipitation variability on inter-annual timescales is clearly influenced by Pacific modes; for example, most El Ninos produce dry and warm conditions in this part of the central Andes. However, on longer timescales, the control of tropical Pacific modes is less clear. Our reconstructions suggest that the cold intervals of the Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation in the central Andes, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation in the southern tropics of South America relative to the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region.

Preliminary results of a prospective study of inter- and intra-user variability of the Royal Veterinary College corneal clarity score (RVC-CCS) for use in veterinary practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez, Rick F; Dawson, Charlotte; Matas Riera, Màrian; Escanilla, Natàlia

2016-07-01

To introduce a new corneal clarity score for use in small animals and describe its inter- and intra-user variability. Twelve dogs and two cats with corneal abnormalities and five dogs with healthy corneas. Four examiners scored every patient twice and never consecutively, focusing on the central cornea. The peripheral cornea was scored separately. The following scoring system was used to describe corneal clarity: G0: no fundus reflection is visible on retroillumination (RI) using a head-mounted indirect ophthalmoscope. G1: a fundus reflection is visible with RI. G2: a 0.1-mm diameter light beam is visible on the anterior surface of the iris and/or lens. G3: gross fundic features are visible when viewed with indirect ophthalmoscopy (IO) using a head-mounted indirect ophthalmoscope and a hand-held 30D lens, although fine details are not clear. G4: fine details of the fundic features are clearly visible with IO. The minimum grades given were analyzed for inter- and intra-user variability with kappa analysis. Intra- and interuser variability of the central corneal clarity ranged from 0.78 to 0.96, showing substantial to almost perfect reproducibility, and from 0.66 to 0.91, showing substantial to almost perfect reliability, respectively. Intra- and interuser variability of the peripheral cornea ranged from 0.83 to 0.95, showing almost perfect agreement, and from 0.53 to 0.91, showing moderate to almost perfect agreement. The RVC-CCS is well suited to assess and monitor central corneal clarity in small animals and to compare outcomes between studies and different surgeons. © 2015 American College of Veterinary Ophthalmologists.

OSCEs for undergraduate clinical examination in orthopaedics: inter ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... D (Group 2) was 8.625. The p-value was 0.001148 (95% confidence interval). Conclusion: There was statistically significant inter-examiner variability. We recommend that for all OSCE exams, examiners be paired with a deliberate attempt to pair a “Hawk” with a “Dove”. Statistical correction of biases is also recommended.

Ozone pollution and ozone biomonitoring in European cities Part II. Ozone-induced plant injury and its relationship with descriptors of ozone pollution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klumpp, A.; Ansel, W.; Klumpp, G.

2006-01-01

within local networks were relatively small, but seasonal and inter-annual differences were strong due to the variability of meteorological conditions and related ozone concentrations. The 2001 data revealed a significant relationship between foliar injury degree and various descriptors of ozone...... pollution such as mean value, AOT20 and AOT40. Examining individual sites of the local monitoring networks separately, however, yielded noticeable differences. Some sites showed no association between ozone pollution and ozone-induced effects, whereas others featured almost linear relationships...

Prevalence of inter-arm blood pressure difference among clinical out-patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Balkishan; Ramawat, Pramila

2016-04-01

An increased inter-arm blood pressure difference is an easily determined physical finding, may use as an indicator of cardio vascular event and other sever diseases. Authors evaluated 477 patients to determine the prevalence and significance of inter-arm blood pressure difference. 477 routine outdoor patients selected to observe the inter-arm blood pressure difference. Age, height, weight, body mass index, history of disease and blood pressure recorded. The prevalence of ≥10 mmHg systolic inter-arm blood pressure difference was 5.0% was more as compared to 3.8% had diastolic inter-arm blood pressure difference. The prevalence of systolic and diastolic inter-arm difference between 6 to 10 mmHg was 31.4% and 27.9% respectively. Mean systolic inter-arm blood pressure difference was significantly higher among those patients had a multisystem disorder (10.57±0.98 mmHg) and followed by patients with cardiovascular disease (10.22±0.67 mmHg) as compared to healthy patients (2.71±0.96 mmHg). Various diseases highly influenced the increase in blood pressure irrespective of systolic or diastolic was confirmed strongly significant (pdifferent inter arm blood pressure difference levels. This study supports the view of inter-arm blood pressure difference as an alarming stage of increased disease risk that incorporated to investigate potential problems at an early diagnostic stage. A significant mean difference between left and right arm blood pressure recorded for many diseases.

Twenty-year inter-annual trends and seasonal variations in precipitation and stream water chemistry at the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Navrátil, Tomas; Norton, Stephen A; Fernandez, Ivan J; Nelson, Sarah J

2010-12-01

Mean annual concentration of SO4(-2) in wet-only deposition has decreased between 1988 and 2006 at the paired watershed study at Bear Brook Watershed in Maine, USA (BBWM) due to substantially decreased emissions of SO(2). Emissions of NO(x) have not changed substantially, but deposition has declined slightly at BBWM. Base cations, NH4+, and Cl(-) concentrations were largely unchanged, with small irregular changes of Bear Brook (EB), the reference stream, has been slowly responding to reduced but still elevated acid deposition. Calcium and Mg have declined fairly steadily and faster than SO4(-2), with consequent acidification (lower pH and higher inorganic Al). Eighteen years of experimental treatment with (NH(4))(2)SO(4) enhanced acidification of West Bear Brook's (WB) watershed. Despite the manipulation, NH4+ concentration remained below detection limits at WB, while leaching of NO3- increased. The seasonal pattern for NO3- concentrations in WB, however, remained similar to EB. Mean monthly concentrations of SO4(-2) have increased in WB since 1989, initially only during periods of high flow, but gradually also during base flow. Increases in mean monthly concentrations of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), and K(+) due to the manipulation occurred from 1989 until about 1995, during the depletion of base cations in shallow flow paths in WB. Progressive depletion of Ca and Mg at greater soil depth occurred, causing stream concentrations to decline to pre-manipulation values. Mean monthly Si concentrations did not change in EB or WB, suggesting that the manipulation had no effect on mineral weathering rates. DOC concentrations in both streams did not exhibit inter- or intra-annual trends.

North Atlantic atmospheric and ocean inter-annual variability over the past fifty years - Dominant patterns and decadal shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, Tristan; Demirov, Entcho; Zhu, Jieshun; Yashayaev, Igor

2015-03-01

The atmosphere and ocean of the North Atlantic have undergone significant changes in the past century. To understand these changes, their mechanisms, and their regional implications requires a quantitative understanding of processes in the coupled ocean and atmosphere system. Central to this understanding is the role played by the dominant patterns of ocean and atmospheric variability which define coherent variations in physical characteristics over large areas. Cluster analysis is used in this article to identify the patterns of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability in the subseasonal and interannual spectral intervals. Four dominant subseasonal weather regimes are defined using Bayesian Gaussian mixture models. All correlation patterns of the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies with the membership probability time series for the weather regimes show similarities with the dipole structure typical for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The SLP patterns of two of the regimes represent the opposite phases NAO+ and NAO-. The two other weather regimes, the Atlantic Ridge (AR) and Scandinavian-Greenland dipole (SG), have dipole spatial structures with the northern and southern centers of action shifted with respect to the NAO pattern. These two patterns define blocking structures over Scandinavia and near the southern tip of Greenland, respectively. The storm tracks typical for the four regimes resemble the well known paths for positive/negative phases of NAO for the NAO+/NAO- weather regimes, and paths influenced by blocking off the south Greenland tip for AR and over Scandinavia for SG. The correlation patterns of momentum and heat fluxes to the ocean for the four regimes have tripole structures with positive (warm) downward heat flux anomalies over the Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for the NAO- and the AR and negative heat flux anomalies over the SPNA for the NAO+. The downward heat flux anomalies associated with the SG are negative over the Labrador Sea and

Regional precipitation variability in East Asia related to climate and environmental factors during 1979-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Yinyin; Gao, Tao; Gao, Huiwang; Yao, Xiaohong; Xie, Lian

2014-01-01

This paper studies the inter-annual precipitation variations in different regions of East Asia from oceans to interior areas in China during 1979 – 2012. The results computed by Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) demonstrate that the annual precipitation changes are mainly related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, East Asian summer monsoon and aerosols. We also found that the increased Sea surface temperature (SST) could explain the precipitation changes over the Northwest Pacific in the dry season (Oct. – May) and the East China Sea and the South China Sea in the rainy season (Jun. – Sep.). The precipitation changes over the ocean unexplained by SST were likely due to the water vapor transport dominated by dynamic factors. With the increased SST, the moisture transported from oceans to interior land was likely redistributed and caused the complicated regional variability of precipitation. Moreover, the impacts of aerosols on cloud and precipitation varied with different pollution levels and different seasons. PMID:25033387

Evaluation of potential changes in hydrologically relevant statistics ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2009-05-16

May 16, 2009 ... projected along the west coast and the adjacent interior, with the possibility of a slight increase in inter-annual variability. If correct, this would ... drying, but did report an increase in inter-annual rainfall vari- ability during the 20th ... CSM projections were similar to HadCM with changes rang- ing between a ...

Inter- and intra-observer variability in prostate definition with tissue harmonic and brightness mode imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandhu, Gurpreet Kaur; Dunscombe, Peter; Meyer, Tyler; Pavamani, Simon; Khan, Rao

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare the relative utility of tissue harmonic (H) and brightness (B) transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) images of the prostate by studying interobserver and intraobserver variation in prostate delineation. Ten patients with early-stage disease were randomly selected. TRUS images of prostates were acquired using B and H modes. The prostates on all images were contoured by an experienced radiation oncologist (RO) and five equally trained observers. The observers were blinded to information regarding patient and imaging mode. The volumes of prostate glands and areas of midgland slices were calculated. Volumes contoured were compared among the observers and between observer group and RO. Contours on one patient were repeated five times by four observers to evaluate the intraobserver variability. A one-sample Student t-test showed the volumes outlined by five observers are in agreement (p > 0.05) with the RO. Paired Student t-test showed prostate volumes (p = 0.008) and midgland areas (p = 0.006) with H mode were significantly smaller than that with B mode. Two-factor analysis of variances showed significant interobserver variability (p standard deviation of mean volumes and areas, and concordance indices. It was found that for small glands (≤35 cc) H mode provided greater interobserver consistency; however, for large glands (≥35 cc), B mode provided more consistent estimates. H mode provided superior inter- and intraobserver agreement in prostate volume definition for small to medium prostates. In large glands, H mode does not exhibit any additional advantage. Although harmonic imaging has not proven advantageous for all cases, its utilization seems to be judicious for small prostates. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

International study on inter-reader variability for circulating tumor cells in breast cancer

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ignatiadis, Michail; Riethdorf, Sabine; Bidard, François-Clement; Vaucher, Isabelle; Khazour, Mustapha; Rothe, Francoise; Metallo, Jessica; Rouas, Ghizlane; Payne, Rachel E.; Coombes, Raoul Charles; Teufel, Ingrid; Andergassen, Ulrich; Apostolaki, Stella; Politaki, Eleni; Mavroudis, Dimitris; Bessi, Silvia; Pestrin, Martta; di Leo, Angelo; Campion, Michael; Reinholz, Monica; Perez, Edith; Piccart, Martine; Borgen, Elin; Naume, Bjorn; Jimenez, Jose; Aura, Claudia Monica; Zorzino, Laura; Cassatella, Maria Cristina; Sandri, Maria Teresa; Mostert, Bianca; Sleijfer, Stefan; Kraan, Jaco; Janni, Wolfgang; Fehm, Tanja; Rack, Brigitte; Terstappen, Leonardus Wendelinus Mathias Marie; Repollet, Madeline; Pierga, Jean-Yves; Miller, Craig; Sotiriou, Christos; Michiels, Stefan; Pantel, Klaus

2014-01-01

IntroductionCirculating tumor cells (CTCs) have been studied in breast cancer with the CellSearch® system. Given the low CTC counts in non-metastatic breast cancer, it is important to evaluate the inter-reader agreement. MethodsCellSearch® images (N = 272) of either CTCs or white blood cells or

Fractional energy states of strongly-interacting bosons in one dimension

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zinner, Nikolaj Thomas; G. Volosniev, A.; V. Fedorov, D.

2014-01-01

We study two-component bosonic systems with strong inter-species and vanishing intra-species interactions. A new class of exact eigenstates is found with energies that are {\\it not} sums of the single-particle energies with wave functions that have the characteristic feature that they vanish over...... than three particles. The states can be probed using the same techniques that have recently been used for fermionic few-body systems in quasi-1D.......We study two-component bosonic systems with strong inter-species and vanishing intra-species interactions. A new class of exact eigenstates is found with energies that are {\\it not} sums of the single-particle energies with wave functions that have the characteristic feature that they vanish over...... extended regions of coordinate space. This is demonstrated in an analytically solvable model for three equal mass particles, two of which are identical bosons, which is exact in the strongly-interacting limit. We numerically verify our results by presenting the first application of the stochastic...

Soil respiration at mean annual temperature predicts annual total across vegetation types and biomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Bahn

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Soil respiration (SR constitutes the largest flux of CO₂ from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. However, there still exist considerable uncertainties as to its actual magnitude, as well as its spatial and interannual variability. Based on a reanalysis and synthesis of 80 site-years for 57 forests, plantations, savannas, shrublands and grasslands from boreal to tropical climates we present evidence that total annual SR is closely related to SR at mean annual soil temperature (SR_MAT, irrespective of the type of ecosystem and biome. This is theoretically expected for non water-limited ecosystems within most of the globally occurring range of annual temperature variability and sensitivity (Q₁₀. We further show that for seasonally dry sites where annual precipitation (P is lower than potential evapotranspiration (PET, annual SR can be predicted from wet season SR_MAT corrected for a factor related to P/PET. Our finding indicates that it can be sufficient to measure SR_MAT for obtaining a well constrained estimate of its annual total. This should substantially increase our capacity for assessing the spatial distribution of soil CO₂ emissions across ecosystems, landscapes and regions, and thereby contribute to improving the spatial resolution of a major component of the global carbon cycle.

Evaluating climate variability and management impacts on carbon dynamics of a temperate forest using a variety of techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Arain, M. A.

2015-12-01

Climate variability, extreme weather events, forest age and management history impacts carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. A variety of measurement techniques such as eddy covariance, dendrochronology, automatic soil CO2 chambers and remote sensing are employed fully understand forest carbon dynamics. Here, we present carbon flux measurements from 2003-2014 in a 76-year old managed temperate pine ((-Pinus strobus L.) forest, near Lake Erie in southern Ontario, Canada. Forest was partially thinned (30% tree harvested) in 1983 and 2012. The thinning in 2012 did not significantly impact carbon fluxes as post-thinning fluxes were within the range of inter-annual variability. Mean annual post-thinning (2012-2104) gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) measure by the eddy covariance technique was 1518 ± 78 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to pre-thinning (2003-2011) GEP of 1384 ± 121 g C m-2·year-1. Over the same period, mean post-thinning net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 185 ± 75 g C m-2 year-1 as compared to post-thinning NEP of 180 ± 70 g C m-2 year-1, indicating that pre-thinning NEP was not significantly different than post-thinning NEP. Only post-thinning mean annual ecosystem respiration (Re; 1322 ± 54 g C m-2 year-1) was higher than pre-thinning Re (1195 ± 101 g C m-2 year-1). Soil CO2 efflux measurements showed similar trends. We also evaluated the impacts of climate variability and management regime on the full life cycle of the forest using annual radial tree-ring growths from 15 trees and compared them with historical climate (temperature and precipitation) data. While the annual growth rates displayed weak correlation with long-term climatic records, the growth was generally reduced during years with extreme drought (-36% of mean annual precipitation) and extreme temperature variability (±0.6 - 1.0°C). Overall, forest was more sensitive to management regime than climate variability. It showed higher growth stress during low light condition after

Mid-Piacensian mean annual sea surface temperature: an analysis for data-model comparisons

Science.gov (United States)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Foley, Kevin M.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

Numerical models of the global climate system are the primary tools used to understand and project climate disruptions in the form of future global warming. The Pliocene has been identified as the closest, albeit imperfect, analog to climate conditions expected for the end of this century, making an independent data set of Pliocene conditions necessary for ground truthing model results. Because most climate model output is produced in the form ofmean annual conditions, we present a derivative of the USGS PRISM3 Global Climate Reconstruction which integrates multiple proxies of sea surface temperature (SST) into single surface temperature anomalies. We analyze temperature estimates from faunal and floral assemblage data,Mg/Ca values and alkenone unsaturation indices to arrive at a single mean annual SST anomaly (Pliocene minus modern) best describing each PRISM site, understanding that multiple proxies should not necessarily show concordance. The power of themultiple proxy approach lies within its diversity, as no two proxies measure the same environmental variable. This data set can be used to verify climate model output, to serve as a starting point for model inter-comparisons, and for quantifying uncertainty in Pliocene model prediction in perturbed physics ensembles.

Reduced density matrix embedding. General formalism and inter-domain correlation functional.

Science.gov (United States)

Pernal, Katarzyna

2016-08-03

An embedding method for a one-electron reduced density matrix (1-RDM) is proposed. It is based on partitioning of 1-RDM into domains and describing each domain in the effective potential of the other ones. To assure N-representability of the total 1-RDM N-representability and strong-orthogonality conditions are imposed on the domains. The total energy is given as a sum of single-domain energies and domain-domain electron interaction contributions. Higher than two-body inter-domain interaction terms are neglected. The two-body correlation terms are approximated by deriving inter-domain correlation from couplings of density fluctuations of two domains at a time. Unlike in most density embedding methods kinetic energy is treated exactly and it is not required that densities pertaining to the domains are only weakly overlapping. We propose to treat each domain by a corrected perfect-pairing functional. On a few examples it is shown that the embedding reduced density matrix functional method (ERDMF) yields excellent results for molecules that are well described by a single Lewis structure even if strong static intra-domain or dynamic inter-domain correlation effects must be accounted for.

Synergies in the space of control variables within the equilibrium-point hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ambike, S; Mattos, D; Zatsiorsky, V M; Latash, M L

2016-02-19

We use an approach rooted in the recent theory of synergies to analyze possible co-variation between two hypothetical control variables involved in finger force production based on the equilibrium-point (EP) hypothesis. These control variables are the referent coordinate (R) and apparent stiffness (C) of the finger. We tested a hypothesis that inter-trial co-variation in the {R; C} space during repeated, accurate force production trials stabilizes the fingertip force. This was expected to correspond to a relatively low amount of inter-trial variability affecting force and a high amount of variability keeping the force unchanged. We used the "inverse piano" apparatus to apply small and smooth positional perturbations to fingers during force production tasks. Across trials, R and C showed strong co-variation with the data points lying close to a hyperbolic curve. Hyperbolic regressions accounted for over 99% of the variance in the {R; C} space. Another analysis was conducted by randomizing the original {R; C} data sets and creating surrogate data sets that were then used to compute predicted force values. The surrogate sets always showed much higher force variance compared to the actual data, thus reinforcing the conclusion that finger force control was organized in the {R; C} space, as predicted by the EP hypothesis, and involved co-variation in that space stabilizing total force. Copyright © 2015 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-Annual Variability of Area-Scaled Gaseous Carbon Emissions from Wetland Soils in the Liaohe Delta, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Siyuan; Krauss, Ken W; Brix, Hans; Wei, Mengjie; Olsson, Linda; Yu, Xueyang; Ma, Xueying; Wang, Jin; Yuan, Hongming; Zhao, Guangming; Ding, Xigui; Moss, Rebecca F

2016-01-01

Global management of wetlands to suppress greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, facilitate carbon (C) sequestration, and reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations while simultaneously promoting agricultural gains is paramount. However, studies that relate variability in CO2 and CH4 emissions at large spatial scales are limited. We investigated three-year emissions of soil CO2 and CH4 from the primary wetland types of the Liaohe Delta, China, by focusing on a total wetland area of 3287 km2. One percent is Suaeda salsa, 24% is Phragmites australis, and 75% is rice. While S. salsa wetlands are under somewhat natural tidal influence, P. australis and rice are managed hydrologically for paper and food, respectively. Total C emissions from CO2 and CH4 from these wetland soils were 2.9 Tg C/year, ranging from 2.5 to 3.3 Tg C/year depending on the year assessed. Primary emissions were from CO2 (~98%). Photosynthetic uptake of CO2 would mitigate most of the soil CO2 emissions, but CH4 emissions would persist. Overall, CH4 fluxes were high when soil temperatures were >18°C and pore water salinity emissions from rice habitat alone in the Liaohe Delta represent 0.2% of CH4 carbon emissions globally from rice. With such a large area and interannual sensitivity in soil GHG fluxes, management practices in the Delta and similar wetlands around the world have the potential not only to influence local C budgeting, but also to influence global biogeochemical cycling.

Intra- and inter- correlative responses among fruits physical traits ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Intra- and inter- correlative responses among fruits physical traits, seedling growth parameters and fruit and nut proximate qualities of the Nigerian shea nut tree ... Results indicated that the first three PCA axes retained explained 96.3% of total variability among seedling provenances, revealing that leaf area, seedling girth, ...

Intra and inter ‘local climate zone’ variability of air temperature as observed by crowdsourced citizen weather stations in Berlin, Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Fenner

2017-11-01

Full Text Available A one-year data set for the year 2015 of near-surface air temperature (T$T$, crowdsourced from ‘Netatmo’ citizen weather stations (CWS in Berlin, Germany, and surroundings was analysed. The CWS data set, which has been quality-checked and filtered in a previous study, consists of T$T$ measurements from several hundred CWS. It was investigated (1 how CWS are distributed among urban and rural environments, as represented by ‘local climate zones’ (LCZ, (2 how LCZ are characterised in T$T$ along the annual cycle and concerning intra-LCZ T$T$ variability, and (3 if significant T$T$ differences between LCZ (ΔT$\\Delta T$ can be detected with CWS data. Further, it was investigated how the results from CWS compare to reference data from standard meteorological measurement stations. It can be shown that all ‘urban’ LCZ are covered by CWS, but only few CWS are located in ‘natural’ LCZ (e.g. forests or urban parks. CWS data along the annual cycle show generally good agreement to reference data, though for some LCZ monthly means between both data sets differ up to 1 K. Intra-LCZ T$T$ variability is particularly large during night-time. Statistically significant ΔT$\\Delta T$ can be detected with CWS data between various LCZ pairs, particularly for structurally dissimilar LCZ, and the results are in agreement with existing literature on LCZ or the urban heat island. Furthermore, annual mean ΔT$\\Delta T$ in CWS data agree well with reference data, thus showing the potential of CWS data for long-term studies. Several challenges related to crowdsourced CWS data need further investigation, namely missing meta data, the non-standard measurement locations, the imbalanced availability in time and space, and potentials to combine CWS and reference data to benefit from the main advantages of both, i.e., the large number of stations and the high quality of data, respectively.

Assessment of annual pollutant loads in combined sewers from continuous turbidity measurements: sensitivity to calibration data.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacour, C; Joannis, C; Chebbo, G

2009-05-01

This article presents a methodology for assessing annual wet weather Suspended Solids (SS) and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) loads in combined sewers, along with the associated uncertainties from continuous turbidity measurements. The proposed method is applied to data from various urban catchments in the cities of Paris and Nantes. The focus here concerns the impact of the number of rain events sampled for calibration (i.e. through establishing linear SS/turbidity or COD/turbidity relationships) on the uncertainty of annual pollutant load assessments. Two calculation methods are investigated, both of which rely on Monte Carlo simulations: random assignment of event-specific calibration relationships to each individual rain event, and the use of an overall relationship built from the entire available data set. Since results indicate a fairly low inter-event variability for calibration relationship parameters, an accurate assessment of pollutant loads can be derived, even when fewer than 10 events are sampled for calibration purposes. For operational applications, these results suggest that turbidity could provide a more precise evaluation of pollutant loads at lower cost than typical sampling methods.

Inter-annual variations in wave characteristics off Ratnagiri, Northeast Arabian Sea

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Johnson, G.; SanilKumar, V.; Singh, J.

location off the central west coast of India during 2008 to 2010 is negligible. The studies based on satellite derived data and ERA-Interim data have indicated that the significant wave height is marginally increasing in the south Indian Ocean and Arabian... for the monsoon period is the same (~ 2 m) in different years. Similarly the variation in annual average Hs during 2010 to 2013 is negligible (< 0.1 m). The average Hs during the monsoon is around 3 times that in the non-monsoon period and ~ 2 times...

Annually resolved ice core records of tropical climate variability over the past ~1800 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Davis, M E; Zagorodnov, V S; Howat, I M; Mikhalenko, V N; Lin, P-N

2013-05-24

Ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. Here, we report annually resolved ice core records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in Peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. Oxygen isotopic ratios (δ(18)O) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the region of the tropical Andes. Quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. Radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.

Hydro-Quebec 2004 annual report : growing strong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

This report provides a consolidated review of the operations of Hydro-Quebec, with a focus on energy production, energy sales, and environmental commitment. Hydro-Quebec is a major producer, transmission provider and distributor of electricity, conducting research and promotional activities in energy and energy transformation and conservation. The Quebec government is its sole shareholder. The company is divided into six divisions and now competes freely with other power producers, while its transmission and distribution remain regulated. Sales totalled $10.7 billion, up 1.8 per cent over 2003. Net income rose to $2.4 billion, up $497 million over 2003, the increase being largely due to lower financial expenses and the disposal of interests in Noverco. Dividends declared amounted to $1.3 billion, or 55 per cent of net income. Cash from operations totaled $4.0 billion, Sources of revenue also included the sale of interests in Noverco, and investment in Meiya Power Company, with the consequent repayment of nearly $1 billion in debt. Major projects of 2004 included the start of operations at the Rocher-de-Grand-Mere generating station as well as work proceeding on Eastmain-1, Peribonka, Toulnustouc and Mercier. Other projects included a partnership with the Crees of Eeyou and the filing of the Energy Efficiency Plan 2005-2010. This annual report presented the company's financial performance, executive changes and reorganization. Financial statements included a review and analysis of financial transactions, the auditor's report as well as customary notes to the consolidated financial statement including balance sheets, assets, liabilities and capital. tabs., figs

A Poisson regression approach to model monthly hail occurrence in Northern Switzerland using large-scale environmental variables

Science.gov (United States)

Madonna, Erica; Ginsbourger, David; Martius, Olivia

2018-05-01

In Switzerland, hail regularly causes substantial damage to agriculture, cars and infrastructure, however, little is known about its long-term variability. To study the variability, the monthly number of days with hail in northern Switzerland is modeled in a regression framework using large-scale predictors derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis. The model is developed and verified using radar-based hail observations for the extended summer season (April-September) in the period 2002-2014. The seasonality of hail is explicitly modeled with a categorical predictor (month) and monthly anomalies of several large-scale predictors are used to capture the year-to-year variability. Several regression models are applied and their performance tested with respect to standard scores and cross-validation. The chosen model includes four predictors: the monthly anomaly of the two meter temperature, the monthly anomaly of the logarithm of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), the monthly anomaly of the wind shear and the month. This model well captures the intra-annual variability and slightly underestimates its inter-annual variability. The regression model is applied to the reanalysis data back in time to 1980. The resulting hail day time series shows an increase of the number of hail days per month, which is (in the model) related to an increase in temperature and CAPE. The trend corresponds to approximately 0.5 days per month per decade. The results of the regression model have been compared to two independent data sets. All data sets agree on the sign of the trend, but the trend is weaker in the other data sets.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability.

Science.gov (United States)

Flo, Víctor; Bosch, Jordi; Arnan, Xavier; Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M; Barril-Graells, Helena; Rodrigo, Anselm

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor Flo

Full Text Available Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1 To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2 To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change.

[Effect of climate change on the fisheries conununity pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Tian, Yong-jun; Chen, Jia-hua

2015-03-01

Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea (OW-NECS), combined sea surface temperature (SST), were used to examine the links between diversity index, pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982/ 1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998 (warming trend period, 1972-1998), and decreased during the warm regime after 1998 (cooling trend period, 1999-2011). Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish, which contributed up to 50% of the total production as a single species, with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS, during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Excluding the filefish, the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972-1998 and 1999-2011, respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components (PC1 and PC2) of PCA for target species, which accounted for 32.43% of the total variance, showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during 1992-1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation, respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change, while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed winEOF1 had significant effect on PC1, and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1 (winEOF1) and summer EOF2 (sumEOF2) can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1, indicating that the fish community structure, which had predominantly decadal/inter-annual

The inter-observer variability of breast density scoring between mammography technologists and breast radiologists and its effect on the rate of adjuvant ultrasound.

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Mazor, Roei D; Savir, Avital; Gheorghiu, David; Weinstein, Yuliana; Abadi-Korek, Ifat; Shabshin, Nogah

2016-05-01

This study assesses the inter-observer variability of mammographic breast density scoring (BDS) between technologists and radiologists and evaluates the effect of technologist patient referral on the load of adjuvant ultrasounds. In this IRB approved study, a retrospective analysis of 503 prospectively acquired, random mammograms was performed between January and March 2014. Each mammogram was evaluated for BDS independently and blindly by both the performing technologist and the interpreting radiologist. Statistical calculation of the Spearman correlation coefficient and weighted kappa were obtained to evaluate the inter-observer variability between technologists and radiologists and to examine whether it relates to the technologist's seniority or women's age. The effect on the load of adjuvant ultrasounds was evaluated. 10 mammography technologists and 7 breast radiologists participated in this study. BDS agreement levels between technologists and radiologists were in the fair to moderate range (kappa values: 0.3-0.45, Spearman coefficient values: 0.59-0.65). The technologists markedly over-graded the density compared to the radiologists in all the subsets evaluated. Comparison between low and high-density groups demonstrated a similar trend of over-grading by technologists, who graded 51% of the women as having dense breasts (scores 3-4) compared to 27% of the women graded as such by the radiologists. This trend of over grading breast density by technologists was unrelated to the women's age or to the technologists' seniority. Mammography technologists over-grade breast density. Technologists' referral to an adjuvant ultrasound leads to redundant ultrasound studies, unnecessary breast biopsies, costs and increased patient anxiety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of a new seasonal to inter-annual operational Great Lakes water supply, water levels, and connecting channel flow forecasting system

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Gronewold, A.; Fry, L. M.; Hunter, T.; Pei, L.; Smith, J.; Lucier, H.; Mueller, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has recently operationalized a suite of ensemble forecasts of Net Basin Supply (NBS), water levels, and connecting channel flows that was developed through a collaboration among USACE, NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ontario Power Generation (OPG), New York Power Authority (NYPA), and the Niagara River Control Center (NRCC). These forecasts are meant to provide reliable projections of potential extremes in daily discharge in the Niagara and St. Lawrence Rivers over a long time horizon (5 years). The suite of forecasts includes eight configurations that vary by (a) NBS model configuration, (b) meteorological forcings, and (c) incorporation of seasonal climate projections through the use of weighting. Forecasts are updated on a weekly basis, and represent the first operational forecasts of Great Lakes water levels and flows that span daily to inter-annual horizons and employ realistic regulation logic and lake-to-lake routing. We will present results from a hindcast assessment conducted during the transition from research to operation, as well as early indications of success rates determined through operational verification of forecasts. Assessment will include an exploration of the relative skill of various forecast configurations at different time horizons and the potential for application to hydropower decision making and Great Lakes water management.

Climate effects on inter- and intra-annual larch stemwood anomalies in the Mongolian forest-steppe

Science.gov (United States)

Khishigjargal, Mookhor; Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Leuschner, Hanns Hubert; Leuschner, Christoph; Hauck, Markus

2014-02-01

Climate response of tree-ring width and intra-annual wood anomalies were studied in stands of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) on Mt. Bogd Uul in the forest-steppe ecotone of Mongolia. Climate on Mt. Bogd Uul is characterized by an increase of the annual mean temperature by 1.5 K between 1965 and 2007, the lack of a long-term trend for annual precipitation and, with it, an increase in aridity. Tree-ring width increases with increasing June precipitation of the current year (June) and increasing late summer precipitation of the previous year. In >100-year old trees, also a negative correlation of tree-ring width with the July temperature of the year prior to tree-ring formation was found. Decreasing tree-ring width with increasing snowfall in December can be explained with the protection of the frost-sensitive eggs of gypsy moth by snow cover, which is a major herbivore of larch in Mongolia and causes reduction in the annual stem increment. The most significant change in wood anatomy was the decline of wide latewood, which is attributable to the increase of summer days with a mean temperature > 15 °C and drought periods in summer without precipitation. Increasing summer drought is also thought to have caused the repeated occurrence of missing rings since the 1960s, which were not observed in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

A decade of boreal rich fen greenhouse gas fluxes in response to natural and experimental water table variability

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Olefeldt, David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Kane, Evan S.; McGuire, A. David; Waldrop, Mark P.; Turetsky, Merritt R.

2017-01-01

Rich fens are common boreal ecosystems with distinct hydrology, biogeochemistry and ecology that influence their carbon (C) balance. We present growing season soil chamber methane emission (FCH4), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) fluxes from a 9-years water table manipulation experiment in an Alaskan rich fen. The study included major flood and drought years, where wetting and drying treatments further modified the severity of droughts. Results support previous findings from peatlands that drought causes reduced magnitude of growing season FCH4, GPP and NEE, thus reducing or reversing their C sink function. Experimentally exacerbated droughts further reduced the capacity for the fen to act as a C sink by causing shifts in vegetation and thus reducing magnitude of maximum growing season GPP in subsequent flood years by ~15% compared to control plots. Conversely, water table position had only a weak influence on ER, but dominant contribution to ER switched from autotrophic respiration in wet years to heterotrophic in dry years. Droughts did not cause inter-annual lag effects on ER in this rich fen, as has been observed in several nutrient-poor peatlands. While ER was dependent on soil temperatures at 2 cm depth, FCH4 was linked to soil temperatures at 25 cm. Inter-annual variability of deep soil temperatures was in turn dependent on wetness rather than air temperature, and higher FCH4 in flooded years was thus equally due to increased methane production at depth and decreased methane oxidation near the surface. Short-term fluctuations in wetness caused significant lag effects on FCH4, but droughts caused no inter-annual lag effects on FCH4. Our results show that frequency and severity of droughts and floods can have characteristic effects on the exchange of greenhouse gases, and emphasize the need to project future hydrological regimes in rich fens.

Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries

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Borges, Alberto V.; Abril, Gwenaël.

2010-05-01

We carried out a literature overview to synthesize current knowledge on CO2 and CH4 dynamics and fluxes with the atmosphere in estuarine environments. Estuarine systems are highly dynamic in terms of carbon cycling and emit CO2 to the atmosphere at rates that are quantitatively significant for the global C cycle. This emission of CO2 to the atmosphere is strongly supported by the net heterotrophic nature of these ecosystems. The robustness of the evaluation of the emission of CO2 from estuarine ecosystems has increased in last years due to increasing data availability and improvements in the surface area estimates by types. At present, the lack of sufficient data is the major limitation in the quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of CO2 fluxes in estuarine environments. Regarding future observations, there is also a need for sustained measurements to unravel inter-annual variability and long-term trends of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Indeed, due to the strong linkage with river catchements, inter-annual variability of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments is expected to be strong. Data used in the present synthesis were either obtained by the authors, data mined from publications or communicated by colleagues. There is a need for publicly available and quality checked data-bases for CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Not only cross-system meta-analysis of data (CO2, CH4, O2, …) can be enlightening as explored in the present work, but also considering the uncertainties in the evaluation of the gas transfer velocity, there could be a need for future re-evaluations of air-water CO2 and CH4 fluxes, requiring access to the raw pCO2 and [CH4] data.

Interannual variability of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and its component fluxes in a subalpine Mediterranean ecosystem (SE Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Chamizo, Sonia; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Sánchez-Cañete, Enrique P.; Domingo, Francisco; Arnau-Rosalén, Eva; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Pérez-Priego, Óscar; López-Ballesteros, Ana; Kowalski, Andrew S.

2015-04-01

Recent decades under climate change have seen increasing interest in quantifying the carbon (C) balance of different terrestrial ecosystems, and their behavior as sources or sinks of C. Both CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and identification of its drivers are key to understanding land-surface feedbacks to climate change. The eddy covariance (EC) technique allows measurements of net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) from short to long time scales. In addition, flux partitioning models can extract the components of net CO2 fluxes, including both biological processes of photosynthesis or gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (Reco), and also abiotic drivers like subsoil CO2 ventilation (VE), which is of particular relevance in semiarid environments. The importance of abiotic processes together with the strong interannual variability of precipitation, which strongly affects CO2 fluxes, complicates the accurate characterization of the C balance in semiarid landscapes. In this study, we examine 10 years of interannual variability of NEE and its components at a subalpine karstic plateau, El Llano de los Juanes, in the Sierra de Gádor (Almería, SE Spain). Results show annual NEE ranging from 55 g C m-2 (net emission) to -54 g C m-2 (net uptake). Among C flux components, GPP was the greatest contributing 42-57% of summed component magnitudes, while contributions by Reco and VE ranged from 27 to 46% and from 3 to 18%, respectively. Annual precipitation during the studied period exhibited high interannual variability, ranging from 210 mm to 1374 mm. Annual precipitation explained 50% of the variance in Reco, 59% of that in GPP, and 56% for VE. While Reco and GPP were positively correlated with annual precipitation (correlation coefficient, R, of 0.71 and 0.77, respectively), VE showed negative correlation with this driver (R = -0.74). During the driest year (2004-2005), annual GPP and Reco reached their lowest values, while contribution of

Collapse and revival in inter-band oscillations of a two-band Bose-Hubbard model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ploetz, Patrick; Wimberger, Sandro [Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Universitaet Heidelberg, Philosophenweg 19, 69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Madronero, Javier, E-mail: ploetz@thphys.uni-heidelberg.d [Physik Department, Technische Universitaet Muenchen, James-Franck-Str. 1, 85748 Garching (Germany)

2010-04-28

We study the effect of a many-body interaction on inter-band oscillations in a two-band Bose-Hubbard model with an external Stark force. Weak and strong inter-band oscillations are observed, where the latter arise from a resonant coupling of the bands. These oscillations collapse and revive due to a weak two-body interaction between the atoms. Effective models for oscillations in and out of resonance are introduced that provide predictions for the system's behaviour, particularly for the time scales for the collapse and revival of the resonant inter-band oscillations. (fast track communication)

Detailed observations of NGC 4151 with IUE-III. Variability of the strong emission lines from 1978 February to 1980 May

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ulrich, M.H.; Boksenberg, A.; Bromage, G.E.

1983-11-01

Observations of the variability of the three strong ultraviolet emission lines in the Seyfert galaxy NGC 4151 (CIV, CIII, and MgII) are used to study the structure of the broad line region and the nuclear energy source of this active galaxy. (author)

Variability in the carbon storage of seagrass habitats and its implications for global estimates of blue carbon ecosystem service.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul S Lavery

Full Text Available The recent focus on carbon trading has intensified interest in 'Blue Carbon'-carbon sequestered by coastal vegetated ecosystems, particularly seagrasses. Most information on seagrass carbon storage is derived from studies of a single species, Posidonia oceanica, from the Mediterranean Sea. We surveyed 17 Australian seagrass habitats to assess the variability in their sedimentary organic carbon (C org stocks. The habitats encompassed 10 species, in mono-specific or mixed meadows, depositional to exposed habitats and temperate to tropical habitats. There was an 18-fold difference in the Corg stock (1.09-20.14 mg C org cm(-3 for a temperate Posidonia sinuosa and a temperate, estuarine P. australis meadow, respectively. Integrated over the top 25 cm of sediment, this equated to an areal stock of 262-4833 g C org m(-2. For some species, there was an effect of water depth on the C org stocks, with greater stocks in deeper sites; no differences were found among sub-tidal and inter-tidal habitats. The estimated carbon storage in Australian seagrass ecosystems, taking into account inter-habitat variability, was 155 Mt. At a 2014-15 fixed carbon price of A$25.40 t(-1 and an estimated market price of $35 t(-1 in 2020, the C org stock in the top 25 cm of seagrass habitats has a potential value of $AUD 3.9-5.4 bill. The estimates of annual C org accumulation by Australian seagrasses ranged from 0.093 to 6.15 Mt, with a most probable estimate of 0.93 Mt y(-1 (10.1 t. km(-2 y(-1. These estimates, while large, were one-third of those that would be calculated if inter-habitat variability in carbon stocks were not taken into account. We conclude that there is an urgent need for more information on the variability in seagrass carbon stock and accumulation rates, and the factors driving this variability, in order to improve global estimates of seagrass Blue Carbon storage.

Intra-Personal and Inter-Personal Kinetic Synergies During Jumping

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Slomka Kajetan

2015-12-01

Full Text Available We explored synergies between two legs and two subjects during preparation for a long jump into a target. Synergies were expected during one-person jumping. No such synergies were expected between two persons jumping in parallel without additional contact, while synergies were expected to emerge with haptic contact and become stronger with strong mechanical contact. Subjects performed jumps either alone (each foot standing on a separate force platform or in dyads (parallel to each other, each person standing on a separate force platform without any contact, with haptic contact, and with strong coupling. Strong negative correlations between pairs of force variables (strong synergies were seen in the vertical force in one-person jumps and weaker synergies in two-person jumps with the strong contact. For other force variables, only weak synergies were present in one-person jumps and no negative correlations between pairs of force variable for two-person jumps. Pairs of moment variables from the two force platforms at steady state showed positive correlations, which were strong in one-person jumps and weaker, but still significant, in two-person jumps with the haptic and strong contact. Anticipatory synergy adjustments prior to action initiation were observed in oneperson trials only. We interpret the different results for the force and moment variables at steady state as reflections of postural sway.

Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin

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Abdul Aziz, Omar I.; Burn, Donald H.

2006-03-01

Trends and variability in the hydrological regime were analyzed for the Mackenzie River Basin in northern Canada. The procedure utilized the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to detect trends, the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach for correcting time-series data for autocorrelation and a bootstrap resampling method to account for the cross-correlation structure of the data. A total of 19 hydrological and six meteorological variables were selected for the study. Analysis was conducted on hydrological data from a network of 54 hydrometric stations and meteorological data from a network of 10 stations. The results indicated that several hydrological variables exhibit a greater number of significant trends than are expected to occur by chance. Noteworthy were strong increasing trends over the winter month flows of December to April as well as in the annual minimum flow and weak decreasing trends in the early summer and late fall flows as well as in the annual mean flow. An earlier onset of the spring freshet is noted over the basin. The results are expected to assist water resources managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the Mackenzie River Basin.

Origins of streamflow in a crystalline basement catchment in a sub-humid Sudanian zone: The Donga basin (Benin, West Africa): Inter-annual variability of water budget

Science.gov (United States)

Séguis, L.; Kamagaté, B.; Favreau, G.; Descloitres, M.; Seidel, J.-L.; Galle, S.; Peugeot, C.; Gosset, M.; Le Barbé, L.; Malinur, F.; Van Exter, S.; Arjounin, M.; Boubkraoui, S.; Wubda, M.

2011-05-01

SummaryDuring the last quarter of the 20th century, West Africa underwent a particularly intense and generalized drought. During this period, the biggest drops in streamflow were observed in the Sudanian zone rather than in the Sahelian zone, but the reasons are still poorly understood. In 2000, a meso-scale hydrological observatory was set up in the sub-humid Sudanian zone of the Upper Ouémé Valley (Benin). Three embedded catchments of 12-586 km 2 located on a crystalline bedrock were intensively instrumented to document the different terms of the water budget and to identify the main streamflow generating processes and base-flow mechanisms at different scales. Geophysical, hydrological and geochemical data were collected throughout the catchments from 2002 to 2006. Crossing these data helped define their hydrological functioning. The region has seasonal streamflow, and the permanent groundwater in the weathered mantle does not drain to rivers, instead, seasonal perched groundwaters are the major contributor to annual streamflow. The perched groundwaters are mainly located in seasonally waterlogged sandy layers in the headwater bottom-lands called bas-fonds in French-speaking West Africa of 1st order streams. During the period 2003-2006, regolith groundwater recharge ranged between 10% and 15% of the annual rainfall depth. Depletion of permanent groundwater during the dry season is probably explained by local evapotranspiration which was seen not to be limited to gallery forests. During the 4-year study period, a reduction of 20% in annual rainfall led to a 50% reduction in streamflow. This reduction was observed in the two components of the flow: direct runoff and drainage of perched groundwater. Thanks to the comprehensive dataset obtained, the results obtained for the Donga experimental catchment are now being extrapolated to the whole upper Ouémé valley, which can be considered as representative of sub-humid Sudanian rivers flowing on a crystalline

Adapting to climate variability and change: experiences from cereal-based farming in the central rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

2013-11-01

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions-the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers' perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new

Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences from Cereal-Based Farming in the Central Rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

2013-11-01

Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions—the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers’ perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new

Variabilidade intra-avaliador e inter-avaliadores de medidas antropométricas - DOI: 10.4025/actascihealthsci.v29i1.98 Intra-observer and inter-observers variability of anthropometric measures- DOI: 10.4025/actascihealthsci.v29i1.98

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edna Regina de Oliveira

2007-12-01

Full Text Available O objetivo do estudo foi avaliar a variabilidade intra e inter-avaliadores de medidas antropométricas realizadas por três antropometristas considerados experientes mediante o cálculo dos erros técnicos de medida (ETM. Para esse fim, foi selecionada uma amostra de 21 voluntários (25,7 ± 7,5 anos, sendo 12 homens e 9 mulheres. Foram consideradas as medidas de peso corporal (kg, estatura (cm, circunferências (cm do braço direito relaxado, abdômen, quadril e coxa, e da espessura das dobras cutâneas (mm tricipital, subescapular, suprailíaca, abdômen, coxa e panturrilha medial. As medidas foram realizadas em 2 dias consecutivos, sempre no período da tarde, envolvendo os mesmos equipamentos e os mesmos voluntários. Os resultados apontaram a ocorrência de ETMs acima dos recomendados para aceitabilidade, tanto a variabilidade intra-avaliador como inter-avaliadores, sugerindo, portanto, a importância e a necessidade de treinamento específico dos antropometristas.The aim of this study was to evaluate the intra and inter-observer reliability in the anthropometric measures of three expert observers through the technical error of measure (TEM. For this end, 21 healthy volunteers (25.7 ± 7.5 years took part in the study, being 12 males and 9 females. The following aspects were analyzed: body weigh (kg, stature (cm, circumferences (cm of relaxed right arm, abdomen, hip and thigh, and skinfold thickness (mm of triceps, subescapular, supra-iliac, abdomen, thigh and calf medial. The measures were made in 2 different days, always in the afternoon, with the same equipments and in the same volunteers. The results pointed the occurrence of TEMs out of the recommended patterns, in both intra-observer and inter-observers variability. This fact showed the importance and need of specific training of the observers.

Inter-individual variability in cortical excitability and motor network connectivity following multiple blocks of rTMS.

Science.gov (United States)

Nettekoven, Charlotte; Volz, Lukas J; Leimbach, Martha; Pool, Eva-Maria; Rehme, Anne K; Eickhoff, Simon B; Fink, Gereon R; Grefkes, Christian

2015-09-01

The responsiveness to non-invasive neuromodulation protocols shows high inter-individual variability, the reasons of which remain poorly understood. We here tested whether the response to intermittent theta-burst stimulation (iTBS) - an effective repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) protocol for increasing cortical excitability - depends on network properties of the cortical motor system. We furthermore investigated whether the responsiveness to iTBS is dose-dependent. To this end, we used a sham-stimulation controlled, single-blinded within-subject design testing for the relationship between iTBS aftereffects and (i) motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) as well as (ii) resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) in 16 healthy subjects. In each session, three blocks of iTBS were applied, separated by 15min. We found that non-responders (subjects not showing an MEP increase of ≥10% after one iTBS block) featured stronger rsFC between the stimulated primary motor cortex (M1) and premotor areas before stimulation compared to responders. However, only the group of responders showed increases in rsFC and MEPs, while most non-responders remained close to baseline levels after all three blocks of iTBS. Importantly, there was still a large amount of variability in both groups. Our data suggest that responsiveness to iTBS at the local level (i.e., M1 excitability) depends upon the pre-interventional network connectivity of the stimulated region. Of note, increasing iTBS dose did not turn non-responders into responders. The finding that higher levels of pre-interventional connectivity precluded a response to iTBS could reflect a ceiling effect underlying non-responsiveness to iTBS at the systems level. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1500 Years of Annual Climate and Environmental Variability as Recorded in Bona-Churchill (Alaska) Ice Cores

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Zagorodnov, V.; Davis, M. E.; Mashiotta, T. A.; Lin, P.

2004-12-01

In 2003, six ice cores measuring 10.5, 11.5, 11.8, 12.4, 114 and 460 meters were recovered from the col between Mount Bona and Mount Churchill (61° 24'N; 141° 42'W; 4420 m asl). These cores have been analyzed for stable isotopic ratios, insoluble dust content and concentrations of major chemical species. Total Beta radioactivity was measured in the upper sections. The 460-meter core, extending to bedrock, captured the entire depositional record at this site where ice temperatures ranged from -24° C at 10 meters to -19.8° C at the ice/bedrock contact. The shallow cores allow assessment of surface processes under modern meteorological conditions while the deep core offers a ˜1500-year climate and environmental perspective. The average annual net balance is ˜~1000 mm of water equivalent and distinct annual signals in dust and calcium concentrations along with δ 18O allow annual resolution over most of the core. The excess sulfate record reflects many known large volcanic eruptions such as Katmai, Krakatau, Tambora, and Laki which allow validation of the time scale in the upper part of the core. The lower part of the core yields a history of earlier volcanic events. The 460-m Bona-Churchill ice core provides a detailed history of the `Little Ice Age' and medieval warm periods for southeastern Alaska. The source of the White River Ash will be discussed in light of the evidence from this core. The 460-m core also provides a long-term history of the dust fall that originates in north-central China. The annual ice core-derived climate records from southeastern Alaska will facilitate an investigation of the likelihood that the high resolution 1500-year record from the tropical Quelccaya Ice Cap (Peru) preserves a history of the variability of both the PDO and the Aleutian Low.

Observer variability when evaluating patient movement from electronic portal images of pelvic radiotherapy fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geraint Lewis, D.; Ryan, Karen R.; Smith, Cyril W.

2005-01-01

Background and purpose: A study has been performed to evaluate inter-observer variability when assessing pelvic patient movement using an electronic portal imaging device (EPID). Materials and methods: Four patient image sets were used with 3-6 portal images per set. The observer group consisted of nine radiographers with 3-18 months clinical EPID experience. The observers outlined bony landmarks on a digital simulator image and used matching software to evaluate field placement errors (FPEs) on each portal image relative to the reference simulator image. Data were evaluated statistically, using a two-component analysis of variance technique, to quantify both the inter-observer variability in evaluating FPEs and inter-fraction variability in patient position relative to the residuals of the analysis. Intra-observer variability was also estimated using four of the observers carrying out three sets of repeat readings. Results: Eight sets of variance data were analysed, based on FPEs in two orthogonal directions for each of the four patient image sets studied. Initial analysis showed that both inter-observer variation and inter-fraction-patient position variation were statistically significant (P<0.05) in seven of the eight cases evaluated. The averaged root-mean-square (RMS) deviation of the observers from the group mean was 1.1 mm, with a maximum deviation of 5.0 mm recorded for an individual observer. After additional training and re-testing of two of the observers who recorded the largest deviations from the group mean, a subsequent analysis showed the inter-observer variability for the group to be significant in only three of the eight cases, with averaged RMS deviation reduced to 0.5 mm, with a maximum deviation of 2.7 mm. The intra-observer variability was 0.5 mm, averaged over the four observers tested. Conclusions: We have developed a quantitative approach to evaluate inter-observer variability in terms of its statistical significance compared to inter

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

Science.gov (United States)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Variability of gastric emptying time using standardized radiolabeled meals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christian, P.E.; Brophy, C.M.; Egger, M.J.; Taylor, A.; Moore, J.G.

1984-01-01

To define the range of inter- and intra-subject variability on gastric emptying measurements, eight healthy male subjects (ages 19-40) received meals on four separate occasions. The meal consisted of 150 g of beef stew labeled with Tc-99m SC labeled liver (600 μCi) and 150 g of orange juice containing In-111 DTPA (100 μCi) as the solid- and liquid-phase markers respectively. Images of the solid and liquid phases were obtained at 20 min intervals immediately after meal ingestion. The stomach region was selected from digital images and data were corrected for radionuclide interference, radioactive decay and the geometric mean of anterior and posterior counts. More absolute variability was seen with the solid than the liquid marker emptying for the group. The mean solid half-emptying time was 58 +- 17 min (range 29-92) while the mean liquid half-emptying time was 24 +- 8 min (range 12-37). A nested random effects analysis of variance showed moderate intra-subject variability for solid half-emptying times (rho = 0.4594), and high intra-subject variability was implied by a low correlation (rho = 0.2084) for liquid half-emptying. The average inter-subject differences were 58.3% of the total variance for solids (rho = 0.0017). For liquids, the inter-subject variability was 69.1% of the total variance, but was only suggestive of statistical significance (rho = 0.0666). The normal half emptying time for gastric emptying of liquids and solids is a variable phenomenon in healthy subjects and has great inter- and intra-individual day-to-day differences