The Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Program (EPSTRKP).
1980-08-01
of nine preselected points of interest. Although subject to change the points currently listed within the program are: Acapulco, Mazatlan, Puerto ... Vallarta , La Paz, San Diego, Hilo, Honolulu, Johnston Island and Midway Island. The strike probabilities, computed upon receipt of each 6-hourly warning
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zach, J.J.
1996-08-01
The purpose of this report is to summarize selected lightning issues concerning the Hanford Waste Tanks. These issues include the probability of lightning discharge striking the area immediately adjacent to a tank including a riser, the consequences of significant energy deposition from a lightning strike in a tank, and mitigating actions that have been or are being taken. The major conclusion of this report is that the probability of a lightning strike depositing sufficient energy in a tank to cause an effect on employees or the public is unlikely;but there are insufficient, quantitative data on the tanks and waste to prove that. Protection, such as grounding of risers and air terminals on existing light poles, is recommended.
An evaluation method for tornado missile strike probability with stochastic correction
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eguchi, Yuzuru; Murakami, Takahiro; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo [Nuclear Risk Research Center (External Natural Event Research Team), Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko (Japan)
2017-03-15
An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure.
An evaluation method for tornado missile strike probability with stochastic correction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eguchi, Yuzuru; Murakami, Takahiro; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo
2017-01-01
An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure
Effects of track and threat information on judgments of hurricane strike probability.
Wu, Hao-Che; Lindell, Michael K; Prater, Carla S; Samuelson, Charles D
2014-06-01
Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone-a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T
2012-10-01
Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.
Funakoshi, Kouta; Hosokawa, Kazuya; Kishi, Takuya; Ide, Tomomi; Sunagawa, Kenji
2014-01-01
Patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are supersensitive to volume overload, and a striking increase in left atrial pressure (LAP) often occurs transiently and is rapidly resolved by intravascular volume reduction. The arterial baroreflex is a powerful regulator of intravascular stressed blood volume. We examined whether arterial baroreflex failure (FAIL) mimicked by constant carotid sinus pressure (CSP) causes a striking increase in LAP and systemic arterial pressure (AP) by volume loading in rats with normal left ventricular (LV) function. In anesthetized Sprague-Dawley rats, we isolated bilateral carotid sinuses and controlled CSP by a servo-controlled piston pump. We mimicked the normal arterial baroreflex by matching CSP to instantaneous AP and FAIL by maintaining CSP at a constant value regardless of AP. We infused dextran stepwise (infused volume [Vi]) until LAP reached 15 mm Hg and obtained the LAP-Vi relationship. We estimated the critical Vi as the Vi at which LAP reached 20 mm Hg. In FAIL, critical Vi decreased markedly from 19.4 ± 1.6 mL/kg to 15.6 ± 1.6 mL/kg (P baroreflex system we recently developed could fully restore the physiologic volume intolerance in the absence of native arterial baroreflex. Arterial baroreflex failure induces striking volume intolerance in the absence of LV dysfunction and may play an important role in the pathogenesis of acute heart failure, especially in states of HFpEF. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bevelhimer, Mark S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division; Colby, Jonathan [Verdant Power, Inc., New York, NY (United States); Adonizio, Mary Ann [Verdant Power, Inc., New York, NY (United States); Tomichek, Christine [Kleinschmidt Associates, Pittsfield, ME (United States); Scherelis, Constantin C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division
2016-07-31
One of the most important biological questions facing the marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy industry is whether fish and marine mammals that encounter MHK devices are likely to be struck by moving components. For hydrokinetic (HK) devices, i.e., those that generate energy from flowing water, this concern is greatest for large organisms because their increased length increases the probability that they will be struck as they pass through the area of blade sweep and because their increased mass means that the force absorbed if struck is greater and potentially more damaging (Amaral et al. 2015). Key to answering this question is understanding whether aquatic organisms change their swimming behavior as they encounter a device in a way that decreases their likelihood of being struck and possibly injured by the device. Whether near-field or far-field behavior results in general avoidance of or attraction to HK devices is a significant factor in the possible risk of physical contact with rotating turbine blades (Cada and Bevelhimer 2011).
Precision Strike Annual Programs Review
2009-03-11
Damage Area*• GPS / INS Navigation + SAL Terminal • Precise əm CEP • Low Probability of Collateral Damage • GPS Extends Glide Range to 10+km • Agile...Page 311 Mar 09 Unclassified Unclassified Viper Strike Lineage Viper Strike SAL Seeker Proof of Principle Demos I & II Hunter-Viper Strike Quick...Information Management • CCA - Clinger Cohen Act • RIT- Rapid Improvement Team • BMMP – Business Management Modernization Program • BTA/ERAM – Business
Parameter Analysis of the VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) Metric
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Song, Jung Heon; Wu, Kesheng; Simon, Horst D.
2014-03-01
VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed trading) is a leading indicator of liquidity-induced volatility. It is best known for having produced a signal more than hours before the Flash Crash of 2010. On that day, the market saw the biggest one-day point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which culminated to the market value of $1 trillion disappearing, but only to recover those losses twenty minutes later (Lauricella 2010). The computation of VPIN requires the user to set up a handful of free parameters. The values of these parameters significantly affect the effectiveness of VPIN as measured by the false positive rate (FPR). An earlier publication reported that a brute-force search of simple parameter combinations yielded a number of parameter combinations with FPR of 7%. This work is a systematic attempt to find an optimal parameter set using an optimization package, NOMAD (Nonlinear Optimization by Mesh Adaptive Direct Search) by Audet, le digabel, and tribes (2009) and le digabel (2011). We have implemented a number of techniques to reduce the computation time with NOMAD. Tests show that we can reduce the FPR to only 2%. To better understand the parameter choices, we have conducted a series of sensitivity analysis via uncertainty quantification on the parameter spaces using UQTK (Uncertainty Quantification Toolkit). Results have shown dominance of 2 parameters in the computation of FPR. Using the outputs from NOMAD optimization and sensitivity analysis, We recommend A range of values for each of the free parameters that perform well on a large set of futures trading records.
Ruddy, Barbara C.; Stevens, Michael R.; Verdin, Kristine
2010-01-01
This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the Fourmile Creek fire in Boulder County, Colorado, in 2010. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volumes of debris flows for selected drainage basins. Data for the models include burn severity, rainfall total and intensity for a 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainstorm, and topographic and soil property characteristics. Several of the selected drainage basins in Fourmile Creek and Gold Run were identified as having probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 60 percent, and many more with probabilities greater than 45 percent, in response to the 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfall. None of the Fourmile Canyon Creek drainage basins selected had probabilities greater than 45 percent. Throughout the Gold Run area and the Fourmile Creek area upstream from Gold Run, the higher probabilities tend to be in the basins with southerly aspects (southeast, south, and southwest slopes). Many basins along the perimeter of the fire area were identified as having low probability of occurrence of debris flow. Volume of debris flows predicted from drainage basins with probabilities of occurrence greater than 60 percent ranged from 1,200 to 9,400 m3. The predicted moderately high probabilities and some of the larger volumes responses predicted for the modeled storm indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow effects to buildings, roads, bridges, culverts, and reservoirs located both within these drainages and immediately downstream from the burned area. However, even small debris flows that affect structures at the basin outlets could cause considerable damage.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Svarer, Claus; Madsen, Karina; Hasselbalch, Steen G.
2005-01-01
The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an observer-independent approach for automatic generation of volume-of-interest (VOI) brain templates to be used in emission tomography studies of the brain. The method utilizes a VOI probability map created on the basis of a database of several...... delineation of the VOI set. The approach was also shown to work equally well in individuals with pronounced cerebral atrophy. Probability-map-based automatic delineation of VOIs is a fast, objective, reproducible, and safe way to assess regional brain values from PET or SPECT scans. In addition, the method...
Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Elliott, John G.
2012-01-01
This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2012 Waldo Canyon fire near Colorado Springs in El Paso County, Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and potential volume of debris flows along the drainage network of the burned area and to estimate the same for 22 selected drainage basins along U.S. Highway 24 and the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (29 millimeters); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (42 millimeters); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (48 millimeters). Estimated debris-flow probabilities at the pour points of the the drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 to 54 percent in response to the 2-year storm; from less than 1 to 74 percent in response to the 10-year storm; and from less than 1 to 82 percent in response to the 25-year storm. Basins and drainage networks with the highest probabilities tended to be those on the southern and southeastern edge of the burn area where soils have relatively high clay contents and gradients are steep. Nine of the 22 drainage basins of interest have greater than a 40-percent probability of producing a debris flow in response to the 10-year storm. Estimated debris-flow volumes for all rainfalls modeled range from a low of 1,500 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages were also predicted to produce
Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Elliott, John G.
2012-01-01
This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2012 High Park fire near Fort Collins in Larimer County, Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and to estimate the same for 44 selected drainage basins along State Highway 14 and the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (25 millimeters); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (43 millimeters); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall (51 millimeters). Estimated debris-flow probabilities along the drainage network and throughout the drainage basins of interest ranged from 1 to 84 percent in response to the 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; from 2 to 95 percent in response to the 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall; and from 3 to 97 in response to the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. Basins and drainage networks with the highest probabilities tended to be those on the eastern edge of the burn area where soils have relatively high clay contents and gradients are steep. Estimated debris-flow volumes range from a low of 1,600 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages were also predicted to produce substantial volumes of material. The predicted probabilities and some of the volumes predicted for the modeled storms indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow impacts on structures, roads, bridges, and culverts located both within and
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moiseenko, Vitali; Battista, Jerry; Van Dyk, Jake
2000-01-01
Purpose: To evaluate the impact of dose-volume histogram (DVH) reduction schemes and models of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) on ranking of radiation treatment plans. Methods and Materials: Data for liver complications in humans and for spinal cord in rats were used to derive input parameters of four different NTCP models. DVH reduction was performed using two schemes: 'effective volume' and 'preferred Lyman'. DVHs for competing treatment plans were derived from a sample DVH by varying dose uniformity in a high dose region so that the obtained cumulative DVHs intersected. Treatment plans were ranked according to the calculated NTCP values. Results: Whenever the preferred Lyman scheme was used to reduce the DVH, competing plans were indistinguishable as long as the mean dose was constant. The effective volume DVH reduction scheme did allow us to distinguish between these competing treatment plans. However, plan ranking depended on the radiobiological model used and its input parameters. Conclusions: Dose escalation will be a significant part of radiation treatment planning using new technologies, such as 3-D conformal radiotherapy and tomotherapy. Such dose escalation will depend on how the dose distributions in organs at risk are interpreted in terms of expected complication probabilities. The present study indicates considerable variability in predicted NTCP values because of the methods used for DVH reduction and radiobiological models and their input parameters. Animal studies and collection of standardized clinical data are needed to ascertain the effects of non-uniform dose distributions and to test the validity of the models currently in use
Cameron, Eric; Dyke, Jonathan P; Hernandez, Nora; Louis, Elan D; Dydak, Ulrike
2018-03-10
Essential tremor (ET) is increasingly recognized as a multi-dimensional disorder with both motor and non-motor features. For this reason, imaging studies are more broadly examining regions outside the cerebellar motor loop. Reliable detection of cerebral gray matter (GM) atrophy requires optimized processing, adapted to high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We investigated cerebral GM volume loss in ET cases using automated segmentation of MRI T1-weighted images. MRI was acquired on 47 ET cases and 36 controls. Automated segmentation and voxel-wise comparisons of volume were performed using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software. To improve upon standard protocols, the high-resolution International Consortium for Brain Mapping (ICBM) 2009a atlas and tissue probability maps were used to process each subject image. Group comparisons were performed: all ET vs. Controls, ET with head tremor (ETH) vs. Controls, and severe ET vs. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed between ET with and without head tremor and controls. Age, sex, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score were regressed out from each comparison. We were able to consistently identify regions of cerebral GM volume loss in ET and in ET subgroups in the posterior insula, superior temporal gyri, cingulate cortex, inferior frontal gyri and other occipital and parietal regions. There were no significant increases in GM volume in ET in any comparisons with controls. This study, which uses improved methodologies, provides evidence that GM volume loss in ET is present beyond the cerebellum, and in fact, is widespread throughout the cerebrum as well. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
2005-01-01
Contrary to popular misconception, lightning often strikes the same place twice. Certain conditions are just ripe for a bolt of electricity to come zapping down; and a lightning strike is powerful enough to do a lot of damage wherever it hits. NASA created the Accurate Location of Lightning Strikes technology to determine the ground strike point of lightning and prevent electrical damage in the immediate vicinity of the Space Shuttle launch pads at Kennedy Space Center. The area surrounding the launch pads is enmeshed in a network of electrical wires and components, and electronic equipment is highly susceptible to lightning strike damage. The accurate knowledge of the striking point is important so that crews can determine which equipment or system needs to be retested following a strike. Accurate to within a few yards, this technology can locate a lightning strike in the perimeter of the launch pad. As an added bonus, the engineers, then knowing where the lightning struck, can adjust the variables that may be attracting the lightning, to create a zone that will be less susceptible to future strikes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lingjiong Zhu
2015-07-01
Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.
Park, John J; Murray, Scott A
2014-05-01
Last year in June, British doctors went on strike for the first time since 1975. Amidst a global economic downturn and with many health systems struggling with reduced finances, around the world the issue of public health workers going on strike is a very real one. Almost all doctors will agree that we should always follow the law, but often the law is unclear or does not cover a particular case. Here we must appeal to ethical discussion. The General Medical Council, in its key guidance document for practising doctors, Good Medical Practice, claims that 'Good doctors make the care of their patients their first concern'. Is this true? And if so, how is this relevant to the issue of striking? One year on since the events, we carefully reflect and argue whether it was right for doctors to pursue strike action, and call for greater discussion of ethical issues such as the recent strikes, particularly among younger members of the profession.
S Varadhan, S R
2001-01-01
This volume presents topics in probability theory covered during a first-year graduate course given at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The necessary background material in measure theory is developed, including the standard topics, such as extension theorem, construction of measures, integration, product spaces, Radon-Nikodym theorem, and conditional expectation. In the first part of the book, characteristic functions are introduced, followed by the study of weak convergence of probability distributions. Then both the weak and strong limit theorems for sums of independent rando
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Samuels, Stuart E.; Eisbruch, Avraham; Vineberg, Karen; Lee, Jae; Lee, Choonik; Matuszak, Martha M.; Ten Haken, Randall K.; Brock, Kristy K., E-mail: kbrock@med.umich.edu
2016-11-01
Purpose: Strategies to reduce the toxicities of head and neck radiation (ie, dysphagia [difficulty swallowing] and xerostomia [dry mouth]) are currently underway. However, the predicted benefit of dose and planning target volume (PTV) reduction strategies is unknown. The purpose of the present study was to compare the normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for swallowing and salivary structures in standard plans (70 Gy [P70]), dose-reduced plans (60 Gy [P60]), and plans eliminating the PTV margin. Methods and Materials: A total of 38 oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) plans were analyzed. Standard organ-sparing volumetric modulated arc therapy plans (P70) were created and then modified by eliminating the PTVs and treating the clinical tumor volumes (CTVs) only (C70) or maintaining the PTV but reducing the dose to 60 Gy (P60). NTCP dose models for the pharyngeal constrictors, glottis/supraglottic larynx, parotid glands (PGs), and submandibular glands (SMGs) were analyzed. The minimal clinically important benefit was defined as a mean change in NTCP of >5%. The P70 NTCP thresholds and overlap percentages of the organs at risk with the PTVs (56-59 Gy, vPTV{sub 56}) were evaluated to identify the predictors for NTCP improvement. Results: With the P60 plans, only the ipsilateral PG (iPG) benefited (23.9% vs 16.2%; P<.01). With the C70 plans, only the iPG (23.9% vs 17.5%; P<.01) and contralateral SMG (cSMG) (NTCP 32.1% vs 22.9%; P<.01) benefited. An iPG NTCP threshold of 20% and 30% predicted NTCP benefits for the P60 and C70 plans, respectively (P<.001). A cSMG NTCP threshold of 30% predicted for an NTCP benefit with the C70 plans (P<.001). Furthermore, for the iPG, a vPTV{sub 56} >13% predicted benefit with P60 (P<.001) and C70 (P=.002). For the cSMG, a vPTV{sub 56} >22% predicted benefit with C70 (P<.01). Conclusions: PTV elimination and dose-reduction lowered the NTCP of the iPG, and PTV elimination lowered the NTCP of the cSMG. NTCP thresholds and the
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Berens, Alan
2000-01-01
.... Volume 1 presents a description of changes made to the probability of detection (POD) analysis program of Mil-STD-1823 and the statistical evaluation of modifications that were made to version 3 of the Eddy Current Inspection System (ECIS v3...
Jennings, K; Western, G
1997-07-01
During 1995, there was a major shift in the United Kingdom in the debate of whether it is right for nurses to strike. The Royal College of Nursing, the former advocate of a non-industrial action policy, moved towards the UNISON position that industrial action is ethical in some circumstances, as well as the necessary thing to do. The authors, both nurses and UNISON officials, look at the reasons for this change and why UNISON's historical position sees industrial action as an effective weapon in defending services, as well as wages and jobs. It can be right to strike.
2014-01-01
Täna algab Eestis, Lätis ja Leedus Ameerika Ühendriikide Euroopa väekoondise õppus "Saber Strike", mille eesmärk on maaväeüksuste koostöö harjutamine. Õppusest võtab osa üle 2000 kaitseväelase Baltimaadest, USAst, Ühendkuningriigist, Taanist, Norrast, Soomest ja Saksamaalt. Eestist osaleb õppusel ligi 400 kaitseväelast
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gloger, Oliver; Völzke, Henry; Tönnies, Klaus; Mensel, Birger
2015-01-01
In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches. (paper)
Global strike hypersonic weapons
Lewis, Mark J.
2017-11-01
Beginning in the 1940's, the United States has pursued the development of hypersonic technologies, enabling atmospheric flight in excess of five times the speed of sound. Hypersonic flight has application to a range of military and civilian applications, including commercial transport, space access, and various weapons and sensing platforms. A number of flight tests of hypersonic vehicles have been conducted by countries around the world, including the United States, Russia, and China, that could lead the way to future hypersonic global strike weapon systems. These weapons would be especially effective at penetrating conventional defenses, and could pose a significant risk to national security.
Integrated Strike Avionics Study. Volume 1
1980-10-01
z C, ( LL LUU LL Z CH 1 i zo < NIf ~3 0A.199~ 11 2 1 .86 V_ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ __) LLI 0 z w fL w z ZW>Z) coɘ LUU LL.4 LL II II zn- U C) UU 0...costs are decreased and the last major disadvantage of concept I is removed. 156 LL 4-1 If; U 4c0 411 >Y r- L oLfl fl Il Ll U r Ll (AA Im H C6 0 a
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Masahiro Abe
2012-06-01
Full Text Available An expert swordsman struck a target with a kendo sword. The velocity and force of the strike were measured. The relationship between the strike velocity, impact force and effective mass of the sword was investigated. It was shown that the effective mass of the sword remains constant for typical strike velocities.
Stevens, Michael R.; Flynn, Jennifer L.; Stephens, Verlin C.; Verdin, Kristine L.
2011-01-01
During 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Gunnison County, initiated a study to estimate the potential for postwildfire debris flows to occur in the drainage basins occupied by Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks near Marble, Colorado. Currently (2010), these drainage basins are unburned but could be burned by a future wildfire. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of postwildfire debris-flow occurrence and debris-flow volumes for drainage basins occupied by Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks near Marble. Data for the postwildfire debris-flow models included drainage basin area; area burned and burn severity; percentage of burned area; soil properties; rainfall total and intensity for the 5- and 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration-rainfall; and topographic and soil property characteristics of the drainage basins occupied by the four creeks. A quasi-two-dimensional floodplain computer model (FLO-2D) was used to estimate the spatial distribution and the maximum instantaneous depth of the postwildfire debris-flow material during debris flow on the existing debris-flow fans that issue from the outlets of the four major drainage basins. The postwildfire debris-flow probabilities at the outlet of each drainage basin range from 1 to 19 percent for the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and from 3 to 35 percent for 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. The largest probabilities for postwildfire debris flow are estimated for Raspberry Creek (19 and 35 percent), whereas estimated debris-flow probabilities for the three other creeks range from 1 to 6 percent. The estimated postwildfire debris-flow volumes at the outlet of each creek range from 7,500 to 101,000 cubic meters for the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and from 9,400 to 126,000 cubic meters for
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Giraud, P.; Dubray, B.; Helfre, S.; Dauphinot, C.; Rosenwald, J.C.; Cosset, J.M.; Rycke, Y. de; Minet, P.; Danhier, S.
2001-01-01
Purpose. - Conformal irradiation of non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) is largely based on a precise definition of the nodal clinical target volume (CTVn). The reduction of the number of nodal stations to be irradiated would render tumor dose escalation more achievable. The aim of this work was to design an mathematical tool based on documented data, that would predict the risk of metastatic involvement for each nodal station. Methods and material. - From the large surgical series published in the literature we looked at the main pre-treatment parameters that modify the risk of nodal invasion. The probability of involvement for the 17 nodal stations described by the American Thoracic Society (ATS) was computed from all these publications and then weighted according to the French epidemiological data. Starting from the primitive location of the tumour as the main characteristic, we built a probabilistic tree for each nodal station representing the risk distribution as a function of each tumor feature. From the statistical point of view, we used the inversion of probability trees method described by Weinstein and Feinberg. Results. -Taking into account all the different parameters of I the pre-treatment staging relative to each level of the ATS map brings up to 20,000 different combinations. The first chosen parameters in the tree were, depending on the tumour location, the histological classification, the metastatic stage, the nodal stage weighted in function of the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic examination used (PET scan, CAT scan) and the tumoral stage. A software is proposed to compute a predicted probability of involvement of each nodal station for any given clinical presentation.Conclusion. -To better define the CTVn in NSCLC 3DRT, we propose a software that evaluates the mediastinal nodal involvement risk from easily accessible individual pretreatment parameters. (authors)
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 3; Issue 4. The Theory of Probability. Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. Classics Volume 3 Issue 4 April 1998 pp 103-112. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/003/04/0103-0112. Author Affiliations.
Probability Theory Without Tears!
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 2. Probability Theory Without Tears! S Ramasubramanian. Book Review Volume 1 Issue 2 February 1996 pp 115-116. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/001/02/0115-0116 ...
Risk Considerations of Bird Strikes to Space Launch Vehicles
Hales, Christy; Ring, Robert
2016-01-01
Within seconds after liftoff of the Space Shuttle during mission STS-114, a turkey vulture impacted the vehicle's external tank. The contact caused no apparent damage to the Shuttle, but the incident led NASA to consider the potential consequences of bird strikes during a Shuttle launch. The environment at Kennedy Space Center provides unique bird strike challenges due to the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge and the Atlantic Flyway bird migration routes. NASA is currently refining risk assessment estimates for the probability of bird strike to space launch vehicles. This paper presents an approach for analyzing the risks of bird strikes to space launch vehicles and presents an example. The migration routes, types of birds present, altitudes of those birds, exposed area of the launch vehicle, and its capability to withstand impacts affect the risk due to bird strike. A summary of significant risk contributors is discussed.
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
Continental United States Hurricane Strikes
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....
Generalized Probability-Probability Plots
Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.
2004-01-01
We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P
Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo
Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think....... By doing so, we will obtain a deeper insight into how events involving large values of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are likely to occur....
[Physicians' strikes--ethical considerations].
Glick, Shimon; Schwarzfuchs, Dan
2012-01-01
Strikes in general represent a solution based on a form of coercion. Historically, the striker caused direct damage to his employer, who was responsible for the perceived unfair treatment of the employee. In the case of strikes in the public sector, the employer is generally not harmed, but innocent citizens suffer in order to pressure the government agencies, a questionable practice from an ethical viewpoint. Physicians' strikes have more serious ethical problems. They cause suffering and death to innocent citizens. They violate the ethical codes to which physicians have committed themselves as professionals, and they seriously impair the trust of the public in physicians. Better and more ethical ways to provide fair compensation for physicians must be employed, perhaps like those used for judges and members of the IDF.
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Respecting the right to strike
Staff Association
2015-01-01
Since two years the representatives of the employers in the ILO, a tripartite multilateral body responsible for guaranteeing the correct application of an international labour code, try to weaken the global work regulations. On the occasion of the Global Day of Action for the right to strike at the invitation of the Geneva community of Union action (Communauté genevoise d’action syndicale) and the Swiss Trade Union Association (Union syndicale suisse) around noon on Wednesday 18th February some fifty staff representatives of international organizations gathered on the place des Nations in Geneva to reaffirm the importance of this fundamental right, too often flouted. A delegation of the CERN Staff Association was also present. In a short speech, the Staff Association said that, while being one of the fundamental human rights, to be efficient the right to strike must be used intelligently. It must be implemented taking into account the sensitivities of the professional environment and r...
Probability theory and applications
Hsu, Elton P
1999-01-01
This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.
Macular damage following lightning strikes.
Augustin, A J; Koch, F; Böker, T
1995-07-01
Two men with recent history of lightining strike were referred to our hospital. Both patients complained of metamorphosia in one eye and reduced visual acuity. Funduscopy revealed target-like alterations at the fovea. Fluorescein angiography showed window defects of the central retinal pigment epithelium in both patients. One patient developed an anterior subcapsular cataract. If the eye is part of the current-circuit, the melanin granules of the iris, pigment epithelium, and choroid might act as a resistor. The resulting accumulation of heat may lead to damage of the surrounding tissues.
Comparison of blade-strike modeling results with empirical data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ploskey, Gene R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, Thomas J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2004-03-01
This study is the initial stage of further investigation into the dynamics of injury to fish during passage through a turbine runner. As part of the study, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) estimated the probability of blade strike, and associated injury, as a function of fish length and turbine operating geometry at two adjacent turbines in Powerhouse 1 of Bonneville Dam. Units 5 and 6 had identical intakes, stay vanes, wicket gates, and draft tubes, but Unit 6 had a new runner and curved discharge ring to minimize gaps between the runner hub and blades and between the blade tips and discharge ring. We used a mathematical model to predict blade strike associated with two Kaplan turbines and compared results with empirical data from biological tests conducted in 1999 and 2000. Blade-strike models take into consideration the geometry of the turbine blades and discharges as well as fish length, orientation, and distribution along the runner. The first phase of this study included a sensitivity analysis to consider the effects of difference in geometry and operations between families of turbines on the strike probability response surface. The analysis revealed that the orientation of fish relative to the leading edge of a runner blade and the location that fish pass along the blade between the hub and blade tip are critical uncertainties in blade-strike models. Over a range of discharges, the average prediction of injury from blade strike was two to five times higher than average empirical estimates of visible injury from shear and mechanical devices. Empirical estimates of mortality may be better metrics for comparison to predicted injury rates than other injury measures for fish passing at mid-blade and blade-tip locations.
Women, transition and strikes in Serbia
Novaković, Nada G.
2014-01-01
The author, in a sociological way, describes and analyzes the concepts of transition, privatization and strikes in Serbia, particularly the place of women in it. It examines the most important economic and social causes and consequences of these phenomena. The main hypothesis is: women's strikes in the Serbian transition are less efficient than strikes and public protests of women in the developed world and the second Yugoslavia. A strike is a class conflict, in which the workers are fighting...
14 CFR 35.38 - Lightning strike.
2010-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Lightning strike. 35.38 Section 35.38... STANDARDS: PROPELLERS Tests and Inspections § 35.38 Lightning strike. The applicant must demonstrate, by... lightning strike without causing a major or hazardous propeller effect. The limit to which the propeller has...
Strikes in Serbia since 2000 to 2005
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Novaković Nada
2005-01-01
Full Text Available In this article author deals with main characteristics of strikes in Serbia within the period 2000–2005. Analysis starts with thesis that strike is open class conflict within class divided society. Therefore strike is radical form of trade union struggle for workers rights. Main questions in the analysis were: on social structure as a background of strikes, on organizations and trade unions included in it, on effects of strikes in Serbia in the given period. Main thesis of the article is that every power dislike strikes and is ready to do everything to diminish them. Main reason lies in the class nature of social conflict that underlie them. Main processes that underlie strike phenomena in Serbia since 2000. are the processes of originally capital accumulation. These bring about the formation of new capitalist class and proletariat of all professions. Author gives a brief analysis of privatization process, as well as of restructuring of public sector and deregulation of economy trying to show the role of all of it in origins of strikes. Main conclusion is that there are large number of strikes in all parts of society, that are well organized, with support of one or more trade unions. For these in power they are factor of obstacle on the way of successful transition. As for the reasons and outcomes these strikes are akin to the strikes at the beginning of 19th century.
Third-party support for strike action.
Kelloway, E Kevin; Francis, Lori; Catano, Victor M; Dupré, Kathryne E
2008-07-01
Labor strikes are often seen as battles for public support. Members of the public are asked to show respect for a strike by refusing to cross the picket line or by joining strikers on the picket line. Such public support may affect the morale of strikers and influence the strike's duration. Despite the perceived importance of the public in labor disputes, members of third parties have not been considered in previous strike research. In 2 studies, the authors show that a new measure of third-party strike support is unidimensional and highly reliable. In both cases, union attitudes and perceptions of distributive justice were significant predictors of support for strike action. Those who are more supportive of unions in general and believe that the contract offered to the strikers was unfair were more likely to support the strike by engaging in such actions as conversing with strikers, writing letters, and refusing to cross the picket line.
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Werner, W. S. M.; Zemek, Josef; Jiříček, Petr
2006-01-01
Roč. 38, - (2006), s. 628-631 ISSN 0142-2421 Grant - others:Techn. Sci. Cooperation CR/AT(AT) 2005-16; FWF(AT) P15938-N02 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100521 Keywords : reflection electron energy loss spectroscopy * REELS * Cu * Cu 2 O * CuO * surface and volume inelastic electron excitations Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 1.427, year: 2006
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reece, W.J.; Gilbert, B.G.; Richards, R.E.
1994-09-01
This data manual contains a hard copy of the information in the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) Version 3.5 database, which is sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NUCLARR was designed as a tool for risk analysis. Many of the nuclear reactors in the US and several outside the US are represented in the NUCLARR database. NUCLARR includes both human error probability estimates for workers at the plants and hardware failure data for nuclear reactor equipment. Aggregations of these data yield valuable reliability estimates for probabilistic risk assessments and human reliability analyses. The data manual is organized to permit manual searches of the information if the computerized version is not available. Originally, the manual was published in three parts. In this revision the introductory material located in the original Part 1 has been incorporated into the text of Parts 2 and 3. The user can now find introductory material either in the original Part 1, or in Parts 2 and 3 as revised. Part 2 contains the human error probability data, and Part 3, the hardware component reliability data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reece, W.J.; Gilbert, B.G.; Richards, R.E. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
1994-09-01
This data manual contains a hard copy of the information in the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) Version 3.5 database, which is sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NUCLARR was designed as a tool for risk analysis. Many of the nuclear reactors in the US and several outside the US are represented in the NUCLARR database. NUCLARR includes both human error probability estimates for workers at the plants and hardware failure data for nuclear reactor equipment. Aggregations of these data yield valuable reliability estimates for probabilistic risk assessments and human reliability analyses. The data manual is organized to permit manual searches of the information if the computerized version is not available. Originally, the manual was published in three parts. In this revision the introductory material located in the original Part 1 has been incorporated into the text of Parts 2 and 3. The user can now find introductory material either in the original Part 1, or in Parts 2 and 3 as revised. Part 2 contains the human error probability data, and Part 3, the hardware component reliability data.
Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...
Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soehn, Matthias; Yan Di; Liang Jian; Meldolesi, Elisa; Vargas, Carlos; Alber, Markus
2007-01-01
Purpose: Accurate modeling of rectal complications based on dose-volume histogram (DVH) data are necessary to allow safe dose escalation in radiotherapy of prostate cancer. We applied different equivalent uniform dose (EUD)-based and dose-volume-based normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models to rectal wall DVHs and follow-up data for 319 prostate cancer patients to identify the dosimetric factors most predictive for Grade ≥ 2 rectal bleeding. Methods and Materials: Data for 319 patients treated at the William Beaumont Hospital with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) under an adaptive radiotherapy protocol were used for this study. The following models were considered: (1) Lyman model and (2) logit-formula with DVH reduced to generalized EUD (3) serial reconstruction unit (RU) model (4) Poisson-EUD model, and (5) mean dose- and (6) cutoff dose-logistic regression model. The parameters and their confidence intervals were determined using maximum likelihood estimation. Results: Of the patients, 51 (16.0%) showed Grade 2 or higher bleeding. As assessed qualitatively and quantitatively, the Lyman- and Logit-EUD, serial RU, and Poisson-EUD model fitted the data very well. Rectal wall mean dose did not correlate to Grade 2 or higher bleeding. For the cutoff dose model, the volume receiving > 73.7 Gy showed most significant correlation to bleeding. However, this model fitted the data more poorly than the EUD-based models. Conclusions: Our study clearly confirms a volume effect for late rectal bleeding. This can be described very well by the EUD-like models, of which the serial RU- and Poisson-EUD model can describe the data with only two parameters. Dose-volume-based cutoff-dose models performed worse
2010-01-01
... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bird strike. 29.631 Section 29.631... STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY ROTORCRAFT Design and Construction General § 29.631 Bird strike. The... safe landing (for Category B) after impact with a 2.2-lb (1.0 kg) bird when the velocity of the...
Single Station System and Method of Locating Lightning Strikes
Medelius, Pedro J. (Inventor); Starr, Stanley O. (Inventor)
2003-01-01
An embodiment of the present invention uses a single detection system to approximate a location of lightning strikes. This system is triggered by a broadband RF detector and measures a time until the arrival of a leading edge of the thunder acoustic pulse. This time difference is used to determine a slant range R from the detector to the closest approach of the lightning. The azimuth and elevation are determined by an array of acoustic sensors. The leading edge of the thunder waveform is cross-correlated between the various acoustic sensors in the array to determine the difference in time of arrival, AT. A set of AT S is used to determine the direction of arrival, AZ and EL. The three estimated variables (R, AZ, EL) are used to locate a probable point of the lightning strike.
A Probabilistic, Facility-Centric Approach to Lightning Strike Location
Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William p.; Merceret, Francis J.
2012-01-01
A new probabilistic facility-centric approach to lightning strike location has been developed. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collisionith spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.
Selected papers on probability and statistics
2009-01-01
This volume contains translations of papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sūgaku. The papers range over a variety of topics in probability theory, statistics, and applications. This volume is suitable for graduate students and research mathematicians interested in probability and statistics.
Scaling Qualitative Probability
Burgin, Mark
2017-01-01
There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...
Lightning Strike in Pregnancy With Fetal Injury.
Galster, Kellen; Hodnick, Ryan; Berkeley, Ross P
2016-06-01
Injuries from lightning strikes are an infrequent occurrence, and are only rarely noted to involve pregnant victims. Only 13 cases of lightning strike in pregnancy have been previously described in the medical literature, along with 7 additional cases discovered within news media reports. This case report presents a novel case of lightning-associated injury in a patient in the third trimester of pregnancy, resulting in fetal ischemic brain injury and long-term morbidity, and reviews the mechanics of lightning strikes along with common injury patterns of which emergency providers should be aware. Copyright © 2016 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Expeditionary Strike Group: Command Structure Design Support
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Hutchins, Susan G; Kemple, William G; Kleinman, David L; Hocevar, Susan P
2005-01-01
An Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) is a new capability mix that combines the combat power of three surface combatants and one submarine with an Amphibious Readiness Group/ Marine Expeditionary Unit...
The Chicago Teachers Strike and Its Public
Shuffelton, Amy B.
2014-01-01
This article considers the 2012 Chicago Teachers Strike in light of John Dewey's "The Public and Its Problems." It engages Dewey's conceptualization of practical reason to challenge the educational reform movement's commitment to technocratic decision-making.
Strikes in the public sector in Denmark
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Scheuer, Steen; Ibsen, Flemming; Høgedahl, Laust
2016-01-01
This article looks at strikes by employees in the public sector, discusses the theoretical background to these conflicts and shows – based on a case study of three strikes in the Danish public sector – how different union strategies lead to very different outcomes in terms of economic gains......, while public sector unions trying to move up the wage hierarchy cannot expect much help from fellow public sector unions, often quite the reverse....
Foot Strike Patterns Differ Between Children and Adolescents Growing up Barefoot vs. Shod.
Hollander, Karsten; de Villiers, Johanna Elsabe; Venter, Ranel; Sehner, Susanne; Wegscheider, Karl; Braumann, Klaus-Michael; Zech, Astrid
2018-02-01
Effects of early and permanent footwear use are not well understood. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of habituation to footwear on foot strike patterns of children and adolescents. Healthy habitually barefoot and shod participants (aged 6-18 years) from South Africa (n=288) and Germany (n=390) performed multiple 20-m jogging and running trials with and without shoes. Each foot strike was captured using a high-speed camera to determine a rearfoot or non-rearfoot strike. The probability of a rearfoot strike in both cohorts and each age was analyzed by using a mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for possible confounders. Habitually barefoot children showed a higher probability of using rearfoot strikes than habitually shod children (p<0.001). The probability was age-dependent and decreased in habitually barefoot children with age (OR barefoot-jogging =0.82, 95% CI, 0.71 to 0.96, p=0.014; OR barefoot-running =0.58, 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.67, p<0.001 and OR shod-running =0.68, 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.79, p<0.001). In habitually shod children, the probability increased significantly for shod jogging (OR=1.19, 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.35, p=0.006). To conclude, foot strike patterns of children are influenced by habituation to footwear. Younger habitually barefoot children show higher rates of rearfoot strikes for shod and barefoot running, and it converges in later adolescence. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
Free probability and random matrices
Mingo, James A
2017-01-01
This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.
Women, transition and strikes in Serbia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Novaković Nada G.
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The author, in a sociological way, describes and analyzes the concepts of transition, privatization and strikes in Serbia, particularly the place of women in it. It examines the most important economic and social causes and consequences of these phenomena. The main hypothesis is: women's strikes in the Serbian transition are less efficient than strikes and public protests of women in the developed world and the second Yugoslavia. A strike is a class conflict, in which the workers are fighting for their social and economic rights, threatened by the capitalist class. Elites in government and state authorities protect the interests of big capital at the detriment of the interests of the majority of workers. Exploring women's strikes in transition reveals the nature of the social and political system. Their strikes in enterprises, the blocking of public spaces and public protests are systemic, ie. class determined. As the transition was very fast, the resistance of the strikers was inefficient, and the protests of women became an expression of desperation against the loss of jobs and basic resources for lifehood. In short, this research is about the main causes, the organizational forms and the consequences of strikes in which the majority were women. For this purpose, the author chose to describe an array of strikes in the industries and the companies where women are most employed. The choice of strikes in the economic sector is not accidental, but a consequence of the fact that the women there were the most vulnerable. Women in public institutions and companies had much higher financial and social position. They are less likely to strike and publicly protested. After 2000, these strikes were more successful than worker's strikes in textile, food processing, manufacturing and trade. Relationship between the government and the public towards them was tainted by self-interest and selective. The main criterion for the selection of companies and
Goldberg, Samuel
1960-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Active and recent strike-slip tectonics
Nur, Amos; Boccaletti, Mario
An international workshop cosponsored by the Department of Geology, University of Florence, Italy and the Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif., was held in Florence, Italy, April 18-20, 1989,on the topic of active and recent strike-slip tectonics in the continental crust. Workshop participants from Turkey, Ethiopia, Israel, Greece, and various universities in Italy, Spain, West Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, and the United States reported on a broad range of studies involving strike-slip faulting in continental crustal setting. As it turned out, much of the work reported on involved aspects of strike-slip faulting that are only poorly understood, especially crustal deformation, which is distributed over a multiplicity of faults, or even fault domains.One of the rewarding aspects of this workshop was the diversity of geographic areas and geological settings covered by the reporters. The north and east Anatolian faults, the Dead Sea transform zone, western Turkey, north and central Greece, Malta, Sicily, southern Italy, the bethic Cordillera in southern Spain, Tunisia, Tibet and southwest China, offshore Brazil, Alaska, Nevada, and California. A recurring observation reported for all those areas was mixed mode faulting, i.e., the coterminous or sequential occurrence of strike-slip and normal faulting, or strike-slip and thrust, and in many instances also strikeslip, normal and thrust faulting in a single tectonic setting.
Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities
Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value
2004-01-01
Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the
ELMs, strike point jumps and SOL currents
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Solano, Emilia R.; Jachmich, S.; Villone, F.; Hawkes, N.; Guenther, K.; Korotkov, A.; Stamp, M.; Andrew, P.; Conboy, J.; Mattews, G.F.; Corre, Y.; Loarte, A.; Pitts, R.A.; Cenedese, A.; Kempenaars, M.; Bolzonella, T.; Rachlew, E.
2005-01-01
Plasma equilibria before and after ELMs in JET are investigated. ELMs could be associated with fragile equilibria and separatrix instabilities: previously closed field lines would open up, releasing plasma current and leading to the formation of a new, smaller separatrix. This model could explain experimental observations of sudden jumps and shifts in strike point positions. Novel instability mechanisms are discussed to explain the large transient jumps observed in the strike point position: positive X-point instability, due to positive toroidal current density at the X-point and diamagnetic instability, due to negative inboard toroidal current density. (author)
Akkerman, A.; Born, M.; Torenvlied, R.
2013-01-01
This article studies how participation norms affect workers' willingness to strike. A factor analysis on the responses of 468 Dutch union members about appropriate behavior during a strike produces two factors. The first factor reflects a "solidarity norm" favoring group solidarity; the second
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Deng, Z. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, T. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Ploskey, G. R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Richmond, M. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
2005-11-01
Bio-indexing of hydro turbines has been identified as an important means to optimize passage conditions for fish by identifying operations for existing and new design turbines that minimize the probability of injury. Cost-effective implementation of bio-indexing requires the use of tools such as numerical and physical turbine models to generate hypotheses for turbine operations that can be tested at prototype scales using live fish. Blade strike has been proposed as an index variable for the biological performance of turbines. Report reviews an evaluation of the use of numerical blade-strike models as a means with which to predict the probability of blade strike and injury of juvenile salmon smolt passing through large Kaplan turbines on the mainstem Columbia River.
Actual and perceived collision risk for bird strikes at Namibian airports
African Journals Online (AJOL)
At Namibia's two major airports, Hosea Kutako International and Eros (domestic), 117 bird strike collision incidents were recorded between 2006 and 2010. A risk assessment, which included a proposed risk weighting methodology, was conducted at Hosea Kutako and Eros airports, which estimated the probability of an ...
Probability Measures on Groups IX
1989-01-01
The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.
Simulating the Risk of Bird Strikes
Metz, I.C.; Ellerbroek, J.; Muhlhausen, Thorsten; Kügler, D.; Hoekstra, J.M.
2017-01-01
This paper presents a fast-time simulation environment for assessing the risk of bird strikes in aviation. An existing air traffic simulator was enhanced in order to simulate air and bird traffic simultaneously and to recognize collisions between birds and aircraft. Furthermore, a method was
The Front Line: No Strikes, Just Balls.
Unks, Gerald
1979-01-01
Recent actions of British teachers suggest an alternative to the teacher strike. Those teachers dramatically demonstrated their grievances by withholding the voluntary extra services they customarily perform. American teachers could accomplish the same end by collectively refusing to perform extraneous administrative services: collecting money,…
When Lightning Strikes a Second Time
Allen, Kent
2017-01-01
The chances of lightning striking twice are infinitesimal, at best. What are the odds, in middle age, of being struck with a jarring bolt of figurative lightning, then a few months later being an eyewitness as the same sizzle in the sky jolts a group of students--those decision-makers of tomorrow? The author describes two experiences that proved…
Impact of lightning strikes on hospital functions.
Mortelmans, Luc J M; Van Springel, Gert L J; Van Boxstael, Sam; Herrijgers, Jan; Hoflacks, Stefaan
2009-01-01
Two regional hospitals were struck by lightning during a one-month period. The first hospital, which had 236 beds, suffered a direct strike to the building. This resulted in a direct spread of the power peak and temporary failure of the standard power supply. The principle problems, after restoring standard power supply, were with the fire alarm system and peripheral network connections in the digital radiology systems. No direct impact on the hardware could be found. Restarting the servers resolved all problems. The second hospital, which had 436 beds, had a lightning strike on the premises and mainly experienced problems due to induction. All affected installations had a cable connection from outside in one way or another. The power supplies never were endangered. The main problem was the failure of different communication systems (telephone, radio, intercom, fire alarm system). Also, the electronic entrance control went out. During the days after the lightening strike, multiple software problems became apparent, as well as failures of the network connections controlling the technical support systems. There are very few ways to prepare for induction problems. The use of fiber-optic networks can limit damage. To the knowledge of the authors, these are the first cases of lightning striking hospitals in medical literature.
[Management of the hunger strike in prison].
Fayeulle, Stéphanie; Renou, Frédéric; Protais, Emmanuel; Hédouin, Valéry; Wartel, Guillaume; Yvin, Jean-Luc
2010-10-01
Entering prison can feed pre-existent behavior of demands or generate them. Several means of expression are then used. Hunger strike is an average privileged act. It belongs to prison culture. Estimate how practitioners working in prison take care of the hunger strikers. The study, realised in 2008, was led with all the Units of Consultations and Ambulatory Care in France. It is a declarative investigation where a medical testimony by unit was asked. From 174 "maisons d'arrêt" and establishments for punishment in France, 95 answers were obtained. This situation was already seen by 98,8% of the doctors. The motives for hunger strike were mainly judicial for "maisons d'arrêt" (70,1%) and prison motives for detention centers (68,7%). Mainly, doctors opted for a neutral attitude (63% of the cases). The hunger strikes were mostly brief (less than a week in 85% of the cases). Only 5,5% of the doctors proposed written information concerning the risks incurred during a fast. A doctor in 4 approximately (23%) was already witness to complications due to fasting. The fact that a patient may refuse care makes the medical approach difficult. Faced with such a situation, 45% of the doctors privileged their duty of care, 28% respected the patient's wishes, and 27% did not pronounce. From a therapeutic point of view, the place of treatment using vitamins was rarely recognized (32,7%). Hunger strike is rarely severe, but it is rather frequent in prison so that every doctor working there will be confronted with it. The refeeding syndrome seems often ignored. The coverage of hunger strike is governed by the law, but ethical questions stay in the appreciation of every doctor. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Gait Retraining From Rearfoot Strike to Forefoot Strike does not change Running Economy.
Roper, Jenevieve Lynn; Doerfler, Deborah; Kravitz, Len; Dufek, Janet S; Mermier, Christine
2017-12-01
Gait retraining is a method for management of patellofemoral pain, which is a common ailment among recreational runners. The present study investigated the effects of gait retraining from rearfoot strike to forefoot strike on running economy, heart rate, and respiratory exchange ratio immediately post-retraining and one-month post-retraining in recreational runners with patellofemoral pain. Knee pain was also measured. Sixteen participants (n=16) were randomly placed in the control (n=8) or experimental (n=8) group. A 10-minute treadmill RE test was performed by all subjects. The experimental group performed eight gait retraining running sessions where foot strike pattern was switched from rearfoot strike to forefoot strike, while the control group received no intervention. There were no significant differences for running economy (p=0.26), respiratory exchange ratio (p=0.258), or heart rate (p=0.248) between the groups. Knee pain reported on a visual analog scale was also significantly reduced (p<0.05) as a result of retraining. The present study demonstrates that retraining from rearfoot strike to forefoot strike did not affect running economy up to one-month post-retraining while reducing running-related patellofemoral pain. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.
Philosophical theories of probability
Gillies, Donald
2000-01-01
The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
["Bell-striking" Saying of Acupuncture Therapy].
Zhao, Jing-Sheng
2017-04-25
As an analogy, a prototype of "bell-striking" is proposed in the present paper for exploring the basic properties, major elements, and potential mechanisms of acupuncture stimulation. On the strength of analysis on the physiological basis of acupuncture effect, several fundamental aspects of acupuncture are summarized as a) the body-surface stimulating characters, b) general and local effects, and c) triggering the auto-regulative function of the organism, which mimics the "bell-striking" response. Namely, when stroke, bell will chime, otherwise, chiming will not be heard. During analyzing special contents of acupuncture theory, its formative background should not be separated, and it is improper to take, modern medical theory of the human body as the guiding thinking way for researching the ancient Chinese medical literature.
Central hyperadrenergic state after lightning strike.
Parsaik, Ajay K; Ahlskog, J Eric; Singer, Wolfgang; Gelfman, Russell; Sheldon, Seth H; Seime, Richard J; Craft, Jennifer M; Staab, Jeffrey P; Kantor, Birgit; Low, Phillip A
2013-08-01
To describe and review autonomic complications of lightning strike. Case report and laboratory data including autonomic function tests in a subject who was struck by lightning. A 24-year-old man was struck by lightning. Following that, he developed dysautonomia, with persistent inappropriate sinus tachycardia and autonomic storms, as well as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and functional neurologic problems. The combination of persistent sinus tachycardia and episodic exacerbations associated with hypertension, diaphoresis, and agitation was highly suggestive of a central hyperadrenergic state with superimposed autonomic storms. Whether the additional PTSD and functional neurologic deficits were due to a direct effect of the lightning strike on the central nervous system or a secondary response is open to speculation.
Gafni-Lachter, Liat; Admi, Hanna; Eilon, Yael; Lachter, Jesse
2017-01-01
Strikes are means to influence policies related to working conditions, yet raise ethical dilemmas for healthcare workers. Nurse strikes have become more prominent around the world. To assess the change in Israeli nurses' attitudes towards strikes in light of two physician strikes that have preceded a nursing strike. An anonymous survey was administered once in 2000 (N = 106) and again in 2011 (n = 175) following 110 days of a physician strike, to assess nurses' attitudes towards the strike and resulting ethical issues. A statistically significant change (p working conditions related to professional and public health agendas.
Li, Shudong; Zhang, Yan; Gu, Yaodong; Ren, James
2017-12-01
Due to the limitations of experimental approaches, comparison of the internal deformation and stresses of the human man foot between forefoot and rearfoot landing is not fully established. The objective of this work is to develop an effective FE modelling approach to comparatively study the stresses and energy in the foot during forefoot strike (FS) and rearfoot strike (RS). The stress level and rate of stress increase in the Metatarsals are established and the injury risk between these two landing styles is evaluated and discussed. A detailed subject specific FE foot model is developed and validated. A hexahedral dominated meshing scheme was applied on the surface of the foot bones and skin. An explicit solver (Abaqus/Explicit) was used to stimulate the transient landing process. The deformation and internal energy of the foot and stresses in the metatarsals are comparatively investigated. The results for forefoot strike tests showed an overall higher average stress level in the metatarsals during the entire landing cycle than that for rearfoot strike. The increase rate of the metatarsal stress from the 0.5 body weight (BW) to 2 BW load point is 30.76% for forefoot strike and 21.39% for rearfoot strike. The maximum rate of stress increase among the five metatarsals is observed on the 1st metatarsal in both landing modes. The results indicate that high stress level during forefoot landing phase may increase potential of metatarsal injuries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Real analysis and probability solutions to problems
Ash, Robert P
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability: Solutions to Problems presents solutions to problems in real analysis and probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability; the interplay between measure theory and topology; conditional probability and expectation; the central limit theorem; and strong laws of large numbers in terms of martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with problems and solutions for the theory of measure and integration, followed by various applications of the basic integration theory.
The quantum probability calculus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jauch, J.M.
1976-01-01
The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Laktineh Imad
2010-04-01
Full Text Available This ourse constitutes a brief introduction to probability applications in high energy physis. First the mathematical tools related to the diferent probability conepts are introduced. The probability distributions which are commonly used in high energy physics and their characteristics are then shown and commented. The central limit theorem and its consequences are analysed. Finally some numerical methods used to produce diferent kinds of probability distribution are presented. The full article (17 p. corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.
Acute transient hemiparesis induced by lightning strike.
Rahmani, Seyed Hesam; Faridaalaee, Gholamreza; Jahangard, Samira
2015-07-01
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,in the years from 1959 to 1994, lightning was responsible for more than 3000 deaths and nearly 10,000 casualties. The most important characteristic features of lightning injuries are multisystem involvement and widely variable severity. Lightning strikes are primarily a neurologic injury that affects all 3 components of the nervous system: central, autonomic,and peripheral. Neurologic complications of lightning strikes vary from transient benign symptoms to permanent disability. Many patients experience a temporary paralysis called keraunoparalysis. Here we reported a 22-year-old mountaineer man with complaining of left sided hemiparesis after being hit by a lightning strike in the mountain 3 hours ago. There was no loss of consciousness at hitting time. On arrival the patient was alert, awake and hemodynamically stable. In neurologic examination cranial nerves were intact, left sided upper and lower extremity muscle force was I/V with a combination of complete sensory loss, and right-sided muscle force and sensory examination were normal. There is not any evidence of significant vascular impairment in the affected extremities. Brain MRI and CT scan and cervical MRI were normal. During 2 days of admission, with intravenous hydration, heparin 5000 unit SC q12hr and physical therapy of the affected limbs, motor and sensory function improved and was normal except mild paresthesia. He was discharged 1 day later for outpatient follow up while vitamin B1 100mg orally was prescribed.Paresthesia improved after 3 days without further sequels.
Lightning strike-induced brachial plexopathy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amita N Bhargava
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We describe a patient who presented with a history of lightning strike injury. Following the injury, he sustained acute right upper limb weakness with pain. Clinically, the lesion was located to the upper and middle trunk of the right brachial plexus, and the same confirmed with electrophysiological studies. Nerve damage due to lightning injuries is considered very rare, and a plexus damage has been described infrequently, if ever. Thus, the proposed hypothesis that lightning rarely causes neuropathy, as against high-voltage electric current, due to its shorter duration of exposure not causing severe burns which lead to nerve damage, needs to be reconsidered.
Analysis of Simulated Aircraft Lightning Strikes and Their Electromagnetic Effects
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Gruden, James
2001-01-01
To survive the intense electromagnetic fields associated with a lightning strike, proper design of aircraft electrical control systems requires knowledge of the transient current pulse associated with a lightning strike...
Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin
2017-12-01
Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.
Teachers' Understandings of Probability
Liu, Yan; Thompson, Patrick
2007-01-01
Probability is an important idea with a remarkably wide range of applications. However, psychological and instructional studies conducted in the last two decades have consistently documented poor understanding of probability among different populations across different settings. The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for…
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...
Strike-slip tectonics during rift linkage
Pagli, C.; Yun, S. H.; Ebinger, C.; Keir, D.; Wang, H.
2017-12-01
The kinematics of triple junction linkage and the initiation of transforms in magmatic rifts remain debated. Strain patterns from the Afar triple junction provide tests of current models of how rifts grow to link in area of incipient oceanic spreading. Here we present a combined analysis of seismicity, InSAR and GPS derived strain rate maps to reveal that the plate boundary deformation in Afar is accommodated primarily by extensional tectonics in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden rifts, and does not require large rotations about vertical axes (bookshelf faulting). Additionally, models of stress changes and seismicity induced by recent dykes in one sector of the Afar triple junction provide poor fit to the observed strike-slip earthquakes. Instead we explain these patterns as rift-perpendicular shearing at the tips of spreading rifts where extensional strains terminate against less stretched lithosphere. Our results demonstrate that rift-perpendicular strike-slip faulting between rift segments achieves plate boundary linkage during incipient seafloor spreading.
Rocchi, Paolo
2014-01-01
The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.
Influence of strike object grounding on close lightning electric fields
Baba, Yoshihiro; Rakov, Vladimir A.
2008-06-01
ground plane. The source of opposite polarity Ez is the potential rise at the object base (at the air/ground interface) relative to the reference ground plane. For a given grounding electrode geometry, the strength of this source increases with decreasing σ, provided that the grounding impedance is linear. Potential rises at the strike object base for σ = 1 and 0.1 mS/m are some hundreds of kilovolts, which is sufficient to produce electrical breakdown from relatively sharp edges of the basement over a distance of several meters (or more) along the ground surface. The resultant ground surface arcs will serve to reduce the equivalent grounding impedance and, hence, potential rise. Therefore, the polarity change of Ez near the Peissenberg tower, for which σ is probably about 1 mS/m, should be a rare phenomenon, if it occurs at all. The equivalent transient grounding impedance of the cylindrical basement is similar to that of a hemispherical grounding electrode of the same radius. For the 160-m tower and for hemispherical grounding electrode, the transient grounding impedance is higher than its dc grounding resistance for σ = 10 and 1 mS/m, but lower for σ = 0.1 mS/m. For the 553-m tower, the transient grounding impedance of hemispherical electrode is equal to or larger than its dc resistance for all values of σ considered.
Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes.
Caley, Peter; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Barry, Simon C
2017-01-01
Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.
Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Caley
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.
Bird strike incidence at Addis Ababa Bole International Airport ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The time and rate of bird strike incidences, species composition and number of birds involved in strikes, and the behaviour of birds were recorded at Bole International Airport from December 1994 to December 1995. The gut contents of the birds struck by aircraft were analyzed. A total of 33 bird strikes were recorded during ...
Evaluating the Effects of a Bird Strike Advisory System
Metz, I.C.; Mühlhausen, T; Ellerbroek, J.; Hoekstra, J.M.
2016-01-01
Bird strikes have operational impacts and cause economic loss to the aviation industry. In the worst case, the damages resulting from bird strikes lead to crashes. The highest risk for bird strikes lies in the area below 3000 ft and thus mainly in airport environments. Despite intense efforts from
effects of strike cost on economic development in nigeria
African Journals Online (AJOL)
USER
productivity as in most cases strike cost (wages and salaries as well as other unavoidable payments) are paid during the .... Many times the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and students have had to strike against ... the direct compensation package and other conditions of service. This is the most popular cause of strike in ...
Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
McClure, J.D.
1981-07-01
The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10 -7 spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10 -9 /mile
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
Forward to the Past: Strikes and Striking as Dialogue by other ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In Nigeria, from the colonial period to the present, the employment of strikes and protests by nationalists, Nigerian workers and civil society groups has been established as one of the potent means of conveying viewpoints, positions as well as the demand for equality, fairness, social justice and reforms. It has been used as ...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Concepts of probability theory
Pfeiffer, Paul E
1979-01-01
Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.
Shorack, Galen R
2017-01-01
This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Quantum computing and probability.
Ferry, David K
2009-11-25
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.
Quantum computing and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferry, David K
2009-01-01
Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)
2014-06-30
set of methods, many of which have their origin in probability in Banach spaces , that arise across a broad range of contemporary problems in di↵erent...salesman problem, . . . • Probability in Banach spaces : probabilistic limit theorems for Banach - valued random variables, empirical processes, local...theory of Banach spaces , geometric functional analysis, convex geometry. • Mixing times and other phenomena in high-dimensional Markov chains. At
Probability in quantum mechanics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Taylor, D.H.; McDonald, J.R.; Twisdale, L.A.
1985-01-01
Tornado risk analysis at the Savannah River Plant has taken a two pronged approach: (1) developing a catalogue of damage thresholds as a function of windspeed for processing buildings and other representative site structures; (2) developing a method of estimating, for each building, the probability of a tornado exceeding each damage threshold. Wind resistance of building construction at SRP varies widely depending on the function of the structure. It was recognized that all tornadoes do not necessarily seriously damage buildings, but the damage thresholds were unknown. In order to evaluate the safety of existing structures and properly design new structures, an analysis of tornado resistance was conducted by J.R. McDonald on each process building at SRP and other buildings by type. Damage estimates were catalogued for each Fujita class windspeed interval and windspeeds were catalogued as a function of increased levels of damage. Tornado single point and structure specific strike probabilities for the SRP site were determined by L.A. Twisdale using the TORRISK computer code. To calculate the structure specific strike probability, a correction factor is determined from a set of curves using building area and aspect ratio (length/width relative to north) as parameters. The structure specific probability is then the product of the correction factor and the point probability. The correction factor increases as a function of building size and windspeed. For large buildings (10 5 ft 2 ) and very intense storms (250 mph), the correction factor is equal to or greater than 4. The cumulative probability of a tornado striking any building type (process, personnel, etc.) was also calculated
Strike Point Control for the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kolemen, E.; Gates, D.A.; Rowley, C.W.; Kasdin, N.J.; Kallman, J.; Gerhardt, S.; Soukhanovskii, V.; Mueller, D.
2010-01-01
This paper presents the first control algorithm for the inner and outer strike point position for a Spherical Torus (ST) fusion experiment and the performance analysis of the controller. A liquid lithium divertor (LLD) will be installed on NSTX which is believed to provide better pumping than lithium coatings on carbon PFCs. The shape of the plasma dictates the pumping rate of the lithium by channeling the plasma to LLD, where strike point location is the most important shape parameter. Simulations show that the density reduction depends on the proximity of strike point to LLD. Experiments were performed to study the dynamics of the strike point, design a new controller to change the location of the strike point to desired location and stabilize it. The most effective PF coils in changing inner and outer strike points were identified using equilibrium code. The PF coil inputs were changed in a step fashion between various set points and the step response of the strike point position was obtained. From the analysis of the step responses, PID controllers for the strike points were obtained and the controller was tuned experimentally for better performance. The strike controller was extended to include the outer-strike point on the inner plate to accommodate the desired low outer-strike points for the experiment with the aim of achieving 'snowflake' divertor configuration in NSTX.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.
1997-09-01
Standard release-recapture analysis using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to estimate survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities for Snake river fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) ignore the possibility of individual fish residualizing and completing their migration in the year following tagging. These models do not utilize available capture history data from this second year and, thus, produce negatively biased estimates of survival probabilities. A new multinomial likelihood model was developed that results in biologically relevant, unbiased estimates of survival probabilities using the full two years of capture history data. This model was applied to 1995 Snake River fall chinook hatchery releases to estimate the true survival probability from one of three upstream release points (Asotin, Billy Creek, and Pittsburgh Landing) to Lower Granite Dam. In the data analyzed here, residualization is not a common physiological response and thus the use of CJS models did not result in appreciably different results than the true survival probability obtained using the new multinomial likelihood model
The perception of probability.
Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E
2014-01-01
We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).
Spataru, Aurel
2013-01-01
Probability theory is a rapidly expanding field and is used in many areas of science and technology. Beginning from a basis of abstract analysis, this mathematics book develops the knowledge needed for advanced students to develop a complex understanding of probability. The first part of the book systematically presents concepts and results from analysis before embarking on the study of probability theory. The initial section will also be useful for those interested in topology, measure theory, real analysis and functional analysis. The second part of the book presents the concepts, methodology and fundamental results of probability theory. Exercises are included throughout the text, not just at the end, to teach each concept fully as it is explained, including presentations of interesting extensions of the theory. The complete and detailed nature of the book makes it ideal as a reference book or for self-study in probability and related fields. It covers a wide range of subjects including f-expansions, Fuk-N...
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Probability and stochastic modeling
Rotar, Vladimir I
2012-01-01
Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...
Geological Effects on Lightning Strike Distributions
Berdahl, J. Scott
2016-05-16
Recent advances in lightning detection networks allow for detailed mapping of lightning flash locations. Longstanding rumors of geological influence on cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning distribution and recent commercial claims based on such influence can now be tested empirically. If present, such influence could represent a new, cheap and efficient geophysical tool with applications in mineral, hydrothermal and oil exploration, regional geological mapping, and infrastructure planning. This project applies statistical analysis to lightning data collected by the United States National Lightning Detection Network from 2006 through 2015 in order to assess whether the huge range in electrical conductivities of geological materials plays a role in the spatial distribution of CG lightning. CG flash densities are mapped for twelve areas in the contiguous United States and compared to elevation and geology, as well as to the locations of faults, railroads and tall towers including wind turbines. Overall spatial randomness is assessed, along with spatial correlation of attributes. Negative and positive polarity lightning are considered separately and together. Topography and tower locations show a strong influence on CG distribution patterns. Geology, faults and railroads do not. This suggests that ground conductivity is not an important factor in determining lightning strike location on scales larger than current flash location accuracies, which are generally several hundred meters. Once a lightning channel is established, however, ground properties at the contact point may play a role in determining properties of the subsequent stroke.
Collective bargaining and strikes among physicians.
Keith, S N
1984-11-01
UNLIKE EMPLOYEES IN OTHER SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY, HEALTH CARE WORKERS ARE DIRECTED TOWARD ONE ULTIMATE GOAL: making people well and keeping them healthy. The development of collective bargaining and union activities during this century has had a great impact on all industries in the United States and the western world. However, only in recent years have workers in the health care sector been affected by the organized labor movement. The history of collective bargaining and strikes among physicians, the key decision-makers in the health care sector, is even more recent. Because of their central position, physicians' collective activity has had and will continue to have tremendous implications for the viability of the present health care system and the quality of patient care. Even though most physicians continue to function as individual, entrepreneurial service providers and "professionals," physicians as a group are more frequently being seen as members of a utility like industry. Their importance to individuals and society as a whole, it can be argued, is second to none; if physicians refuse to work there can be no worse set of outcomes. To estimate the potential future impact of growing collective action on the part of physicians, this article explores the general historical developments.
The Britannica Guide to Statistics and Probability
2011-01-01
By observing patterns and repeated behaviors, mathematicians have devised calculations to significantly reduce human potential for error. This volume introduces the historical and mathematical basis of statistics and probability as well as their application to everyday situations. Readers will also meet the prominent thinkers who advanced the field and established a numerical basis for prediction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Godbout, P.; Brais, A.
1975-01-01
The possibilities of an aircraft striking a Canadian nuclear power plant in the vicinity of an airport and of inducing structural failure modes have been evaluated. This evaluation, together with other studies, may enhance decisions in the development of general criteria for the siting of reactors near airports. The study made use, for assessment, of the probabilistic approach and made judicious applications of the finite Canadian, French, German, American and English resources that were available. The tools, techniques and methods used for achieving the above, form what may be called an integrated approach. This method of approach requires that the study be made in six consecutive steps as follows: the qualitative evaluation of having an aircraft strike on a site situated near an airport with the use of the logic model technique; the statistical data gathering on aircraft movements and accidents; evaluating the probability distribution and calculating the basic event probabilities; evaluating the probability of an aircraft strike and the application of the sensitivity approach; generating the probability density distribution versus strike impact energy, that is, the evaluation of the energy envelope; and the probabilistic evaluation of structural failure mode inducements
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Willem Scholtz
“quite probably, also the end of Angola's existence as an independent country”. It went on: “The victory at Cuito Cuanavale for the liberation forces and their Cuban compatriots was therefore decisive in consolidating Angola's independence and achieving that of Namibia.” Therefore, when reflecting on the events, “it is not ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
IAS Admin
He spends several months in India visiting schools, colleges and universities. He enjoys teaching mathematics and statistics at all levels. He loves Indian classical and folk music. This issue of Resonance features Joseph Leonard. Doob, who played a critical role in the devel- opment of probability theory in the world from.
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.
2014-01-01
that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.
that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
OF PROBABILITY *. The simplest laws of natural science are those that state the conditions under which some event of interest to us will either certainly occur or certainly not occur; i.e., these conditions may be expressed in one of the following two forms: 1. If a complex (i.e., a set or collection) of conditions S is realized, then.
Children on hunger strike: child abuse or legitimate protest?
Mok, A.; Nelson, E. A.; Murphy, J.; Hampson, A.; Hendriks, J. H.
1996-01-01
The issue of children on hunger strike (voluntary total fasting) has not been reported before. The World Medical Association Declaration of Tokyo 1975 and the Declaration of Malta 1991 (revised 1992) provide clinicians with guidelines for the management of adult patients on hunger strike but do not mention children. We report the management of 14 Vietnamese children, aged 1 to 12 years, who took part in a hunger strike at a refugee detention centre in Hong Kong. PMID:8597690
Children on hunger strike: child abuse or legitimate protest?
Mok, A.; Nelson, E. A.; Murphy, J.; Hampson, A.; Hendriks, J. H.
1996-01-01
The issue of children on hunger strike (voluntary total fasting) has not been reported before. The World Medical Association Declaration of Tokyo 1975 and the Declaration of Malta 1991 (revised 1992) provide clinicians with guidelines for the management of adult patients on hunger strike but do not mention children. We report the management of 14 Vietnamese children, aged 1 to 12 years, who took part in a hunger strike at a refugee detention centre in Hong Kong.
The effect of hand dominance on martial arts strikes.
Neto, Osmar Pinto; Silva, Jansen Henrique; Marzullo, Ana Carolina de Miranda; Bolander, Richard P; Bir, Cynthia A
2012-08-01
The main goal of this study was to compare dominant and non-dominant martial arts palm strikes under different circumstances that usually happen during martial arts and combative sports applications. Seven highly experienced (10±5 years) right hand dominant Kung Fu practitioners performed strikes with both hands, stances with left or right lead legs, and with the possibility or not of stepping towards the target (moving stance). Peak force was greater for the dominant hand strikes (1593.76±703.45 N vs. 1042.28±374.16 N; p<.001), whereas no difference was found in accuracy between the hands (p=.141). Additionally, peak force was greater for the strikes with moving stance (1448.75±686.01 N vs. 1201.80±547.98 N; p=.002) and left lead leg stance (1378.06±705.48 N vs. 1269.96±547.08 N). Furthermore, the difference in peak force between strikes with moving and stationary stances was statistically significant only for the strikes performed with a left lead leg stance (p=.007). Hand speed was higher for the dominant hand strikes (5.82±1.08 m/s vs. 5.24±0.78 m/s; p=.001) and for the strikes with moving stance (5.79±1.01 m/s vs. 5.29±0.90 m/s; p<.001). The difference in hand speed between right and left hand strikes was only significant for strikes with moving stance. In summary, our results suggest that the stronger palm strike for a right-handed practitioner is a right hand strike on a left lead leg stance moving towards the target. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
7th High Dimensional Probability Meeting
Mason, David; Reynaud-Bouret, Patricia; Rosinski, Jan
2016-01-01
This volume collects selected papers from the 7th High Dimensional Probability meeting held at the Institut d'Études Scientifiques de Cargèse (IESC) in Corsica, France. High Dimensional Probability (HDP) is an area of mathematics that includes the study of probability distributions and limit theorems in infinite-dimensional spaces such as Hilbert spaces and Banach spaces. The most remarkable feature of this area is that it has resulted in the creation of powerful new tools and perspectives, whose range of application has led to interactions with other subfields of mathematics, statistics, and computer science. These include random matrices, nonparametric statistics, empirical processes, statistical learning theory, concentration of measure phenomena, strong and weak approximations, functional estimation, combinatorial optimization, and random graphs. The contributions in this volume show that HDP theory continues to thrive and develop new tools, methods, techniques and perspectives to analyze random phenome...
Debunking the viper's strike: harmless snakes kill a common assumption.
Penning, David A; Sawvel, Baxter; Moon, Brad R
2016-03-01
To survive, organisms must avoid predation and acquire nutrients and energy. Sensory systems must correctly differentiate between potential predators and prey, and elicit behaviours that adjust distances accordingly. For snakes, strikes can serve both purposes. Vipers are thought to have the fastest strikes among snakes. However, strike performance has been measured in very few species, especially non-vipers. We measured defensive strike performance in harmless Texas ratsnakes and two species of vipers, western cottonmouths and western diamond-backed rattlesnakes, using high-speed video recordings. We show that ratsnake strike performance matches or exceeds that of vipers. In contrast with the literature over the past century, vipers do not represent the pinnacle of strike performance in snakes. Both harmless and venomous snakes can strike with very high accelerations that have two key consequences: the accelerations exceed values that can cause loss of consciousness in other animals, such as the accelerations experienced by jet pilots during extreme manoeuvres, and they make the strikes faster than the sensory and motor responses of mammalian prey and predators. Both harmless and venomous snakes can strike faster than the blink of an eye and often reach a target before it can move. © 2016 The Author(s).
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Strong Algerian Earthquake Strikes Near Capital City
Ayadi, A.; Maouche, S.; Harbi, A.; Meghraoui, M.; Beldjoudi, H.; Oussadou, F.; Mahsas, A.; Benouar, D.; Heddar, A.; Rouchiche, Y.; Kherroubi, A.; Frogneux, M.; Lammali, K.; Benhamouda, F.; Sebaï, A.; Bourouis, S.; Alasset, P. J.; Aoudia, A.; Cakir, Z.; Merahi, M.; Nouar, O.; Yelles, A.; Bellik, A.; Briole, P.; Charade, O.; Thouvenot, F.; Semane, F.; Ferkoul, A.; Deramchi, A.; Haned, S. A.
On 21 May 2003, a damaging earthquake of Mw 6.8 struck the region of Boumerdes 40 km east of Algiers in northern Algeria (Figure 1). The mainshock, which lasted ~ 36-40 s, had devastating effects and claimed about 2300 victims, caused more than 11,450 injuries, and left about 200,000 people homeless. It destroyed and seriously damaged around 180,000 housing units and 6000 public buildings with losses estimated at $5 billion. The mainshock was widely felt within a radius of ~ 400 km in Algeria. To the north, the earthquake was felt in southeastern Spain, including the Balearic Islands, and also in Sardinia and in southern France. The mainshock location, which was calculated at 36.91°N, 3.58°E (15 km offshore of Zemmouri; Figure 1), and the local magnitude (Md 6.4) are from seismic records of local stations. International seismological centers obtained Mw 6.8 (NEIC) with a thrust focal mechanism solution and 1.83 × 1026 dyne.cm for the seismic moment. A sequence of aftershocks affected the epicentral area with two strong shocks reaching Mw 5.8 on 27 and 29 May 2003. Field investigations allowed us to assign a maximum intensity X (European Macroseismic Scale 98) and to report rockfalls, minor surface cracks, and liquefaction phenomena. The mainshock was not associated with inland surface faulting, but one of the most striking coseismic effects is the coastal uplift and the backwash along the littoral of the Mitidja basin.
Chung, Kai Lai
1995-01-01
This volume shows modern probabilistic methods in action: Brownian Motion Process as applied to the electrical phenomena investigated by Green et al., beginning with the Newton-Coulomb potential and ending with solutions by first and last exits of Brownian paths from conductors.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ullah Irshad
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Protection against lightning is always a challenging job for the researcher. The consequences due to lightning on different building shapes needs a comprehensive knowledge in order to provide the information to the common man. This paper is mainly concern with lightning pattern when it strikes on the building with different shape. The work is based on the practical experimental work in high voltage laboratory. Different shapes of the scaled structures have been selected in order to investigate the equal distribution of lightning voltage. The equal distribution of lightning voltage will provide the maximum probability of lightning strike on air terminal of the selected shapes. Building shapes have a very important role in lightning protection. The shapes of the roof tops have different geometry and the Franklin rod installation is also varies with changing the shape of the roof top. According to the ambient weather condition of Malaysia high voltage impulse is applied on the lightning rod installed on different geometrical shape. The equal distribution of high voltage impulse is obtained as the geometry of the scaled structure is identical and the air gap for all the tested object is kept the same. This equal distribution of the lightning voltage also proves that the probability of lightning strike is on the corner and the edges of the building structure.
Superpositions of probability distributions
Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen
2008-09-01
Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.
Contributions to quantum probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a
Contributions to quantum probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-01-01
Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Waste Package Misload Probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Knudsen, J.K.
2001-01-01
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
... and probability models 3.4 Inference and confidence 3.5 Two central limit theorems 3.6 The Monte Carlo method and process simulation 4 The randomization of systematic errors page xi xii 3 3 5 7 10 12 16 19 21 21 23 28 30 32 33 39 43 45 52 53 56 viiviii 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 Contents The Working Group of 1980 From classical repetition to practica...
Model uncertainty and probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parry, G.W.
1994-01-01
This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example
Retrocausality and conditional probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuart, C.I.J.M.
1989-01-01
Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
A decade of U.S. Air Force bat strikes
Peurach, Suzanne C.; Dove, Carla J.; Stepko, Laura
2009-01-01
From 1997 through 2007, 821 bat strikes were reported to the U.S. Air Force (USAF) Safety Center by aircraft personnel or ground crew and sent to the National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, for identification. Many samples were identified by macroscopic and or microscopic comparisons with bat specimens housed in the museum and augmented during the last 2 years by DNA analysis. Bat remains from USAF strikes during this period were received at the museum from 40 states in the United States and from 20 countries. We confirmed that 46% of the strikes were caused by bats, but we did not identify them further; we identified 5% only to the family or genus level, and 49% to the species level. Fifty-five of the 101 bat-strike samples submitted for DNA analysis have been identified to the species level. Twenty-five bat species have been recorded striking USAF planes worldwide. The Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis; n = 173) is the species most commonly identified in USAF strike impacts, followed by the red bat (Lasiurus borealis; n = 83). Bat strikes peak during the spring and fall, with >57% occurring from August through October; 82% of the reports that included time of strike were recorded between 2100 and 0900 hours. More than 12% of the bat strikes were reported at >300 m above ground level (AGL). Although $825,000 and >50% of this sum was attributable to 5 bat-strike incidents. Only 5 bats from the 10 most damaging bat strikes were identified to the species level, either because we did not receive remains with the reports or the sample was insufficient for identification.
Inoue, N.
2017-12-01
The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source
Reporting the Great Railroad Strike: How Ideology Shaped the News.
Coward, John
The Great Railroad Strike of 1877, a national catastrophe and the major news story of the year, was the first national labor strike in U.S. history. Because of the ideological bias of the press, specifically its implicit commitment to capitalism and to objectivity (itself a "myth" of social order), newspapers of the period could be…
The public's attitude towards strike action by healthcare workers and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The strength of the associations was determined by Cramer's V. Results. Results revealed strong opinions among the population regarding strikes, numerous misapprehensions when it comes to striking and rights, a poor awareness of other healthcare-related rights and the perception of poor treatment at public hospitals.
Teaching Striking Skills in Elementary Physical Education Using Woodball
Chang, Seung Ho; Lee, Jihyun
2017-01-01
Object control (OC) skills are a part of fundamental motor skills and basic functional skills, which work as a prerequisite to becoming a skilled performer in many sports. Of various OC skills, striking is one of the most difficult to master due to a variety of interrelated movement components. A form of vertical or underarm striking is a more…
LAW AND ETHICS OF STRIKES IN THE NIGERIAN HEALTH SYSTEM
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2014-10-06
Oct 6, 2014 ... employment. Kidnapping has been affecting virtually every sector of the Nigerian economy. Thus it is not the right of any health worker to embark on strike. Rather the right to strike can be derived from the principle of collective bargaining, which according to Ahmed (2014) is an essential principle. Workers ...
Ban on right to strike by police challenged
Grünell, M.
2008-01-01
After months of negotiation between the police force and the minister of the interior on the renewal of the collective agreement, the police trade unions began threatening industrial action and strikes in December 2007. The courts were divided on the issue, with some ruling out strikes as a means of
Martial arts striking hand peak acceleration, accuracy and consistency.
Neto, Osmar Pinto; Marzullo, Ana Carolina De Miranda; Bolander, Richard P; Bir, Cynthia A
2013-01-01
The goal of this paper was to investigate the possible trade-off between peak hand acceleration and accuracy and consistency of hand strikes performed by martial artists of different training experiences. Ten male martial artists with training experience ranging from one to nine years volunteered to participate in the experiment. Each participant performed 12 maximum effort goal-directed strikes. Hand acceleration during the strikes was obtained using a tri-axial accelerometer block. A pressure sensor matrix was used to determine the accuracy and consistency of the strikes. Accuracy was estimated by the radial distance between the centroid of each subject's 12 strikes and the target, whereas consistency was estimated by the square root of the 12 strikes mean squared distance from their centroid. We found that training experience was significantly correlated to hand peak acceleration prior to impact (r(2)=0.456, p =0.032) and accuracy (r(2)=0. 621, p=0.012). These correlations suggest that more experienced participants exhibited higher hand peak accelerations and at the same time were more accurate. Training experience, however, was not correlated to consistency (r(2)=0.085, p=0.413). Overall, our results suggest that martial arts training may lead practitioners to achieve higher striking hand accelerations with better accuracy and no change in striking consistency.
Probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.
1994-01-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)
Power electromagnetic strike machine for engineering-geological surveys
Usanov, K. M.; Volgin, A. V.; Chetverikov, E. A.; Kargin, V. A.; Moiseev, A. P.; Ivanova, Z. I.
2017-10-01
When implementing the processes of dynamic sensing of soils and pulsed nonexplosive seismic exploration, the most common and effective method is the strike one, which is provided by a variety of structure and parameters of pneumatic, hydraulic, electrical machines of strike action. The creation of compact portable strike machines which do not require transportation and use of mechanized means is important. A promising direction in the development of strike machines is the use of pulsed electromagnetic actuator characterized by relatively low energy consumption, relatively high specific performance and efficiency, and providing direct conversion of electrical energy into mechanical work of strike mass with linear movement trajectory. The results of these studies allowed establishing on the basis of linear electromagnetic motors the electromagnetic pulse machines with portable performance for dynamic sensing of soils and land seismic pulse of small depths.
Probably Almost Bayes Decisions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.
1996-01-01
In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...... discriminant functions for this purpose. We analyze this approach for different classes of distribution functions of Boolean features:kth order Bahadur-Lazarsfeld expansions andkth order Chow expansions. In both cases, we obtain upper bounds for the required sample size which are small polynomials...
Generalized Probability Functions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexandre Souto Martinez
2009-01-01
Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.
Sirca, Simon
2016-01-01
This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.
Probability of causation approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jose, D.E.
1988-01-01
Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice
Wavelet transform analysis of electromyography kung fu strikes data.
Neto, Osmar Pinto; Marzullo, Ana Carolina de Miranda
2009-11-01
In martial arts and contact sports strikes are performed at near maximum speeds. For that reason, electromyography (EMG) analysis of such movements is non-trivial. This paper has three main goals: firstly, to investigate the differences in the EMG activity of muscles during strikes performed with and without impacts; secondly, to assess the advantages of using Sum of Significant Power (SSP) values instead of root mean square (rms) values when analyzing EMG data; and lastly to introduce a new method of calculating median frequency values using wavelet transforms (WMDF). EMG data of the deltoid anterior (DA), triceps brachii (TB) and brachioradialis (BR) muscles were collected from eight Kung Fu practitioners during strikes performed with and without impacts. SSP results indicated significant higher muscle activity (p = 0.023) for the strikes with impact. WMDF results, on the other hand, indicated significant lower values (p = 0. 007) for the strikes with impact. SSP results presented higher sensitivity than rms to quantify important signal differences and, at the same time, presented lower inter-subject coefficient of variations. The result of increase in SSP values and decrease in WMDF may suggest better synchronization of motor units for the strikes with impact performed by the experienced Kung Fu practitioners. Key PointsThe results show higher muscle activity and lower electromyography median frequencies for strikes with impact compared to strikes without.SSP results presented higher sensitivity and lower inter-subject coefficient of variations than rms results.Kung Fu palm strikes with impact may present better motor units' synchronization than strikes without.
Identification of probabilities.
Vitányi, Paul M B; Chater, Nick
2017-02-01
Within psychology, neuroscience and artificial intelligence, there has been increasing interest in the proposal that the brain builds probabilistic models of sensory and linguistic input: that is, to infer a probabilistic model from a sample. The practical problems of such inference are substantial: the brain has limited data and restricted computational resources. But there is a more fundamental question: is the problem of inferring a probabilistic model from a sample possible even in principle? We explore this question and find some surprisingly positive and general results. First, for a broad class of probability distributions characterized by computability restrictions, we specify a learning algorithm that will almost surely identify a probability distribution in the limit given a finite i.i.d. sample of sufficient but unknown length. This is similarly shown to hold for sequences generated by a broad class of Markov chains, subject to computability assumptions. The technical tool is the strong law of large numbers. Second, for a large class of dependent sequences, we specify an algorithm which identifies in the limit a computable measure for which the sequence is typical, in the sense of Martin-Löf (there may be more than one such measure). The technical tool is the theory of Kolmogorov complexity. We analyze the associated predictions in both cases. We also briefly consider special cases, including language learning, and wider theoretical implications for psychology.
Wall Street vs. Main Street: An Evaluation of Probabilities
Robin L. Lumsdaine; Rogier J.D. Potter van Loon
2013-01-01
This paper challenges recent conventional wisdom of a divide between Main Street (the average American consumer) and Wall Street (financial market participants). The views of survey respondents regarding the likelihood of stock index returns exceeding specific thresholds are compared to market views indicated by index options with strikes at analogous thresholds. The econometric specification explicitly addresses some important impediments to using elicited probabilities from survey data. We ...
Piascik, Robert S.; Prosser, William H.
2011-01-01
The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the Appendices to the main report.
Piascik, Robert S.; Prosser, William H.
2011-01-01
The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the findings and recommendations from the NESC assessment.
Measure, integral and probability
Capiński, Marek
2004-01-01
Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.
Strikes by physicians: a historical perspective toward an ethical evaluation.
Thompson, Stephen L; Salmon, J Warren
2006-01-01
Current conditions surrounding the house of medicine-including corporate and government cost-containment strategies, increasing market-penetration schemes in health care, along with clinical scrutiny and the administrative control imposed under privatization by managed care firms, insurance companies, and governments-have spurred an upsurge in physician unionization, which requires a revisiting of the issue of physician strikes. Strikes by physicians have been relatively rare events in medical history. When they have occurred, they have aroused intense debate over their ethical justification among professionals and the public alike, notwithstanding what caused the strikes. As physicians and other health care providers increasingly find employment within organizations as wage-contract employees and their work becomes more highly rationalized, more physicians will join labor organizations to protect both their economic and their professional interests. As a result, these physicians will have to come to terms with the use of the strike weapon. On the surface, many health care strikes may not ever seem justifiable, but in certain defined situations a strike would be not only permissible but an ethical imperative. With an exacerbation of labor strife in the health sector in many nations, it is crucial to explore the question of what constitutes an ethical physician strike.
Determine the Foot Strike Pattern Using Inertial Sensors
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tzyy-Yuang Shiang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available From biomechanical point of view, strike pattern plays an important role in preventing potential injury risk in running. Traditionally, strike pattern determination was conducted by using 3D motion analysis system with cameras. However, the procedure is costly and not convenient. With the rapid development of technology, sensors have been applied in sport science field lately. Therefore, this study was designed to determine the algorithm that can identify landing strategies with a wearable sensor. Six healthy male participants were recruited to perform heel and forefoot strike strategies at 7, 10, and 13 km/h speeds. The kinematic data were collected by Vicon 3D motion analysis system and 2 inertial measurement units (IMU attached on the dorsal side of both shoes. The data of each foot strike were gathered for pitch angle and strike index analysis. Comparing the strike index from IMU with the pitch angle from Vicon system, our results showed that both signals exhibited highly correlated changes between different strike patterns in the sagittal plane (r=0.98. Based on the findings, the IMU sensors showed potential capabilities and could be extended beyond the context of sport science to other fields, including clinical applications.
Strike action by nurses in South Africa: A value clarification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marie Muller
2001-09-01
Full Text Available The Labour Relations Act (South Africa, 1991 made provision for protected strike action by employees, subject to certain conditions, procedures and negotiated agreements. This led to the removal of the strike clause in the Nursing Act (South Africa, 1992. The labour rights of all citizens are entrenched in the Constitution of the country (South Africa, 1996. Participation in strike action by the nurse/ midwife, regardless of the legal requirements and specifications, does, however, pose an ethical question. It is therefore necessary to conduct a value clarification on strike action by nurses in South Africa. The purpose of this research is to explore and describe the perceived values of participants from an accessible population on this phenomenon. A qualitative, exploratory and descriptive research design was deployed. The perceived values of nurses on strike action were collected by means of an openended questionnaire/sketch. Over a period of three years a purposive and convenient sampling method was used, involving all the enrolled post basic nursing/midwifery students/ learners at a particular Nursing Education Institution. The justification of the sample was further enhanced by also collecting data on the participants’ age and provincial distribution location. Although a 63% sample realisation (of the accessible population was achieved, this represents only 1,5% of the registered nursing/midwifery population in the country. A descriptive analysis of the participants’ age and provincial distribution was undertaken, as well as a content analysis of their perceived values on strike action. The mean age of the participants was 48 years, which could be attributed to the fact that most of them were enrolled for a post-basic Diploma in Community Nursing Science. Most of the responses (52,7% were against strike action and 32,5% supported strike action by nurses as a constitutional and legal right. A fairly substantial number of participants (14
"Thunderstruck": penetrating thoracic injury from lightning strike.
van Waes, Oscar J F; van de Woestijne, Pieter C; Halm, Jens A
2014-04-01
Lightning strike victims are rarely presented at an emergency department. Burns are often the primary focus. This case report describes the improvised explosive device like-injury to the thorax due to lightning strike and its treatment, which has not been described prior in (kerauno)medicine. Penetrating injury due to blast from lightning strike is extremely rare. These "shrapnel" injuries should however be ruled out in all patients struck by lightning. Copyright © 2013 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
Marrakesh International Conference on Probability and Statistics
Ouassou, Idir; Rachdi, Mustapha
2015-01-01
This volume, which highlights recent advances in statistical methodology and applications, is divided into two main parts. The first part presents theoretical results on estimation techniques in functional statistics, while the second examines three key areas of application: estimation problems in queuing theory, an application in signal processing, and the copula approach to epidemiologic modelling. The book’s peer-reviewed contributions are based on papers originally presented at the Marrakesh International Conference on Probability and Statistics held in December 2013.
Interaction probability value calculi for some scintillators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garcia-Torano Martinez, E.; Grau Malonda, A.
1989-01-01
Interaction probabilities for 17 gamma-ray energies between 1 and 1.000 KeV have been computed and tabulated. The tables may be applied to the case of cylindrical vials with radius 1,25 cm and volumes 5, 10 and 15 ml. Toluene, Toluene/Alcohol, Dioxane-Naftalen, PCS, INSTAGEL and HISAFE II scintillators are considered. Graphical results for 10 ml are also given. (Author) 11 refs
EARLY HISTORY OF GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY AND STEREOLOGY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Magdalena Hykšová
2012-03-01
Full Text Available The paper provides an account of the history of geometric probability and stereology from the time of Newton to the early 20th century. It depicts the development of two parallel ways: on one hand, the theory of geometric probability was formed with minor attention paid to other applications than those concerning spatial chance games. On the other hand, practical rules of the estimation of area or volume fraction and other characteristics, easily deducible from geometric probability theory, were proposed without the knowledge of this branch. A special attention is paid to the paper of J.-É. Barbier published in 1860, which contained the fundamental stereological formulas, but remained almost unnoticed both by mathematicians and practicians.
Continental United States Hurricane Strikes 1950-2012
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...
2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes poster is one of two special edition posters for the Atlantic Hurricanes. This beautiful poster contains two sets of...
Ethical and legal consideration of prisoner's hunger strike in Serbia.
Alempijevic, Djordje; Pavlekic, Snezana; Jecmenica, Dragan; Nedeljkov, Aleksandra; Jankovic, Milos
2011-03-01
Hunger strike of prisoners and detainees remains a major human rights and ethical issue for medical professionals. We are reporting on a case of a 48-year-old male sentenced prisoner, intravenous heroin user, who went on a hunger strike and died 15 days later. Throughout the fasting period, the prisoner, who was capable of decision making, refused any medical examination. Autopsy findings were not supporting prolonged starvation, while toxicology revealed benzodiazepines and opiates in blood and urine. Cause of death was given as "heroin intoxication" in keeping with detection of 6-MAM. Legal and ethical issues pertinent to medical examination and treatment of prisoners on hunger strike are explored in accordance with legislation and professional ethical standards in Serbia. A recommendation for the best autopsy practice in deaths following hunger strike has been made. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.
Nuclear First Strike-Have the Rules Changed?
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Carter, Rosemary M
2008-01-01
.... Nuclear first strike is the policy that reserves the right to use nuclear weapons against an enemy before that enemy employs a like weapon without any constraints on the decision to employ the weapon...
Joint Strike Fighter fit for duty in Europe?
Heerkens, Johannes M.G.
2000-01-01
Focuses on the potential growth of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) market in Europe. Competition between Lockheed Martin and Boeing for the fighter's design contract; Disadvantages of the fighter plane; Stealth performance of JSF.
Neto, Osmar Pinto; Magini, Marcio; Saba, Marcelo M F; Pacheco, Marcos Tadeu Tavares
2008-02-01
This paper presents a comparison of force, power, and efficiency values calculated from Kung Fu Yau-Man palm strikes, when performed by 7 experienced and 6 novice men. They performed 5 palm strikes to a freestanding basketball, recorded by high-speed camera at 1000 Hz. Nonparametric comparisons and correlations showed experienced practitioners presented larger values of mean muscle force, mean impact force, mean muscle power, mean impact power, and mean striking efficiency, as is noted in evidence obtained for other martial arts. Also, an interesting result was that for experienced Kung Fu practitioners, muscle power was linearly correlated with impact power (p = .98) but not for the novice practitioners (p = .46).
Local avian density influences risk of mortality from window strikes
Sabo, Ann M.; Hagemeyer, Natasha D.G.; Lahey, Ally S.
2016-01-01
Up to a billion birds die per year in North America as a result of striking windows. Both transparent and reflective glass panes are a cause for concern, misleading birds by either acting as invisible, impenetrable barriers to desired resources, or reflecting those resources over a large surface area. A high number of window strikes occur during migration, but little is known about the factors of susceptibility, or whether particular avian taxa are more vulnerable than others. We report on a study of window strikes and mist-netting data at the Virginia Zoological Park (Norfolk, Virginia, USA), conducted in the autumn of 2013 and 2014. We focused on three factors likely to contribute to an individual’s predisposition to collide with windows: (i) taxonomic classification, (ii) age, and (iii) migrant vs. resident status. Thrushes, dominated by the partial migrant American Robin (Turdus migratorius), were significantly less likely to strike glass than be sampled in mist nets (χ2 = 9.21, p = 0.002), while wood-warblers (Parulidae) were more likely to strike than expected (χ2 = 13.55, p windows (45.4%) was not significantly different (χ2 = 0.05, p = 0.827) than the population of juvenile birds naturally occurring at the zoo (48.8%). Migrants, however, were significantly more susceptible to window strikes than residents (χ2 = 6.35, p = 0.012). Our results suggest that resident birds are able to learn to avoid and thus reduce their likelihood of striking windows; this intrinsic risk factor may help explain the apparent susceptibility of certain taxa to window strikes. PMID:27366656
NASA storm hazards research in lightning strikes to aircraft
Fisher, B. D.; Brown, P. W.; Plumer, J. A.
1985-01-01
The lightning strike condition data gathered in the 1980-1984 period are presented, together with the lightning attachment point analysis for the NASA F-106B research aircraft are presented. The analysis of the experienced 637 direct lightning strikes shows that the highest strike rates (2.1 strikes/min and 13 strikes/penetration) occurred at altitudes between 38,000 and 40,000 ft. The regions of highest risk for an aircraft to experience a direct lightning strike were the areas of thunderstorms where the ambient temperature was colder than -40 C and where the relative turbulence and precipitation intensities were characterized as negligible to light. The presence and location of lightning, therefore, did not necessarily indicate the presence and location of hazardous precipitation and turbulence. The total onboard data show that the lightning attachment patterns on this aircraft fall into four general categories, although the 1984 data suggest that the entire surface of the F-106B may be susceptible to lightning attachment.
WAVELET TRANSFORM ANALYSIS OF ELECTROMYOGRAPHY KUNG FU STRIKES DATA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ana Carolina de Miranda Marzullo
2009-11-01
Full Text Available In martial arts and contact sports strikes are performed at near maximum speeds. For that reason, electromyography (EMG analysis of such movements is non-trivial. This paper has three main goals: firstly, to investigate the differences in the EMG activity of muscles during strikes performed with and without impacts; secondly, to assess the advantages of using Sum of Significant Power (SSP values instead of root mean square (rms values when analyzing EMG data; and lastly to introduce a new method of calculating median frequency values using wavelet transforms (WMDF. EMG data of the deltoid anterior (DA, triceps brachii (TB and brachioradialis (BR muscles were collected from eight Kung Fu practitioners during strikes performed with and without impacts. SSP results indicated significant higher muscle activity (p = 0.023 for the strikes with impact. WMDF results, on the other hand, indicated significant lower values (p = 0. 007 for the strikes with impact. SSP results presented higher sensitivity than rms to quantify important signal differences and, at the same time, presented lower inter-subject coefficient of variations. The result of increase in SSP values and decrease in WMDF may suggest better synchronization of motor units for the strikes with impact performed by the experienced Kung Fu practitioners
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhang, B. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0133 (United States); Soltani, S.A. [Department of Aerospace Engineering, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0133 (United States); Le, L.N. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0133 (United States); Asmatulu, R., E-mail: ramazan.asmatulu@wichita.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0133 (United States)
2017-02-15
A thin flexible coating made of pristine graphene was fabricated and applied on the surface of a commercial carbon fiber epoxy prepreg laminate to protect it against the lightning strike. To assess the coating’s effectiveness, the coated laminate was subjected to the simulated lightning strike as well as the electromagnetic interference shielding effectiveness (EMI SE) testing. It was observed that the damaged area and volume in the coated laminate were reduced by 94% and 96%, respectively, as compared to the laminate without the coating. Moreover, the coated laminate had an average EMI SE of 51 dB over 100–2000 MHz range, 55 dB over 8–12 GHz range, and 60 dB over 12–18 GHz range marking 22%, 44%, and 49% improvement in EMI SE for each frequency range, respectively. The results indicate a great potential for the developed coating to protect the commercially available prepreg composites against the lightning strike.
Analytic methods in applied probability in memory of Fridrikh Karpelevich
Suhov, Yu M
2002-01-01
This volume is dedicated to F. I. Karpelevich, an outstanding Russian mathematician who made important contributions to applied probability theory. The book contains original papers focusing on several areas of applied probability and its uses in modern industrial processes, telecommunications, computing, mathematical economics, and finance. It opens with a review of Karpelevich's contributions to applied probability theory and includes a bibliography of his works. Other articles discuss queueing network theory, in particular, in heavy traffic approximation (fluid models). The book is suitable
[The Teachers' Right to Strike Versus the Students' Right to an Education.
Powell, Edward M.
The speaker establishes himself in opposition to teacher strikes, outlines the scope of teacher strikes, discusses arguments for and against the right of teachers to strike, presents the kinds of strikes that are possible, outlines what a board and the administration can do to head off a strike, and presents the American Association of School…
Physical Constructivism and Quantum Probability
Ozhigov, Yu. I.
2009-03-01
I describe the main ideas of constructive physics and its role for the probability interpretation of quantum theory. It is shown how the explicit probability space for quantum systems gives the formal representation of entanglement and decoherence.
Probabilities in the Card Game of Three Cards
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 9; Issue 3. Probabilities in the Card Game of Three Cards. A W Joshi M W Joshi. Classroom Volume 9 Issue 3 March 2004 pp 76-77. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/009/03/0076-0077 ...
Probabilities in the Card Game of Three Cards
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 9; Issue 3. Probabilities in the Card Game of Three Cards. A W Joshi M W Joshi. Classroom Volume 9 Issue 3 March 2004 pp 76-77. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/009/03/0076-0077 ...
Flight Overbooking Problem–Use of a Probability Model
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 7; Issue 3. Flight Overbooking Problem – Use of a Probability Model. T Krishnan. Classroom Volume 7 Issue 3 March 2002 pp 56-60. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/007/03/0056-0060 ...
Introduction to probability with R
Baclawski, Kenneth
2008-01-01
FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable
Simulating Blade-Strike on Fish passing through Marine Hydrokinetic Turbines
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Romero Gomez, Pedro DJ; Richmond, Marshall C.
2014-06-16
The study reported here evaluated the occurrence, frequency, and intensity of blade strike of fish on an axial-flow marine hydrokinetic turbine by using two modeling approaches: a conventional kinematic formulation and a proposed Lagrangian particle- based scheme. The kinematic model included simplifying assumptions of fish trajectories such as distribution and velocity. The proposed method overcame the need for such simplifications by integrating the following components into a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model: (i) advanced eddy-resolving flow simulation, (ii) generation of ambient turbulence based on field data, (iii) moving turbine blades in highly transient flows, and (iv) Lagrangian particles to mimic the potential fish pathways. The test conditions to evaluate the blade-strike probability and fish survival rate were: (i) the turbulent environment, (ii) the fish size, and (iii) the approaching flow velocity. The proposed method offered the ability to produce potential fish trajectories and their interaction with the rotating turbine. Depending upon the scenario, the percentile of particles that registered a collision event ranged from 6% to 19% of the released sample size. Next, by using a set of experimental correlations of the exposure-response of living fish colliding with moving blades, the simulated collision data were used as input variables to estimate the survival rate of fish passing through the operating turbine. The resulting survival rates were greater than 96% in all scenarios, which is comparable to or better than known survival rates for conventional hydropower turbines. The figures of strike probability and mortality rate were amplified by the kinematic model. The proposed method offered the advantage of expanding the evaluation of other mechanisms of stress and injury on fish derived from hydrokinetic turbines and related devices.
A brief introduction to probability.
Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio
2018-02-01
The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.
Isolated Sensorineural Hearing Loss as a Sequela after Lightning Strike
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahfuz Turan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In most of the surviving patients after a lightning strike, audiovestibular abnormalities have been reported. The most frequently reported type of abnormalities is a tympanic membrane perforation with hearing loss and external ear canal burn. However a sensor neural hearing loss and mixed type hearing loss can also occur, but these occur rarely. A nineteen-year-old female patient had, after a lightning strike, serious burns on the left ear, behind the ear, and on the chest and neck. She also had in her left ear 108 dB hearing loss with irregular central perforation and in her right ear 52 dB sensorineural hearing loss. There was no hearing loss before the strike. A hearing aid was recommended for the right ear and good care and follow-up were recommended for the left ear. A lightning strike can cause serious audiological damage. Therefore, it is necessary to make a careful audiovestibular evaluation of the patients. Although there exist rarely healed cases from sensorineural hearing loss after lightning strike in literature, in our case hearing loss occurred bilaterally and then it healed unilaterally. This condition is quite rare in literature.
Osis, Sean T; Hettinga, Blayne A; Leitch, Jessica; Ferber, Reed
2014-08-22
As 3-dimensional (3D) motion-capture for clinical gait analysis continues to evolve, new methods must be developed to improve the detection of gait cycle events based on kinematic data. Recently, the application of principal component analysis (PCA) to gait data has shown promise in detecting important biomechanical features. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to define a new foot strike detection method for a continuum of striking techniques, by applying PCA to joint angle waveforms. In accordance with Newtonian mechanics, it was hypothesized that transient features in the sagittal-plane accelerations of the lower extremity would be linked with the impulsive application of force to the foot at foot strike. Kinematic and kinetic data from treadmill running were selected for 154 subjects, from a database of gait biomechanics. Ankle, knee and hip sagittal plane angular acceleration kinematic curves were chained together to form a row input to a PCA matrix. A linear polynomial was calculated based on PCA scores, and a 10-fold cross-validation was performed to evaluate prediction accuracy against gold-standard foot strike as determined by a 10 N rise in the vertical ground reaction force. Results show 89-94% of all predicted foot strikes were within 4 frames (20 ms) of the gold standard with the largest error being 28 ms. It is concluded that this new foot strike detection is an improvement on existing methods and can be applied regardless of whether the runner exhibits a rearfoot, midfoot, or forefoot strike pattern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
VARIATION OF STRIKE INCENTIVES WITH DAMAGE PREFERENCES; FINAL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
G. CANAVAN
2001-01-01
For START III level forces, strike allocations and magnitudes vary little with L, but first strike costs vary directly with L, which means that for K reflecting a preference for the survival of high value targets over their destruction and a preference for high value over military targets, the costs of action are far greater than those of inaction for a wide range of values of damage preference L. Thus, if both sides have much greater preferences for the survival of their high value targets than for military targets or destruction, they do not see a net incentive to strike, and crises are terminated by inaction. Recent decades suggest strong preferences for the survival of high value and that this has contributed to the lack of direct conflict during that period
[Force-feeding of hunger-striking prisoners].
Glick, Shimon
2014-09-01
In contrast to the position of the World Medical Association and the Ethics Council of the Israel Medical Association, the author argues for forced-feeding of hunger-striking prisoners when their condition reaches a stage of danger of death or permanent injury. This position is based on the priority of human life over autonomy, and of a communitarian ethic. This position is supported by a District Court decision ordering the feeding of a hunger-striking prisoner, by a Supreme Court decision imposing surgery on a non-consenting prisoner, and in line with Israel's Patient's Right Law.
Sound Quality and Striking Position of a Conga Drum
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dylan Harvey
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The relationship between the location at which a drum membrane was struck and the quality of sound produced was investigated by striking the drum at several distances between the center and the rim. Through analyzing the harmonics of the wave produced from the impact, it was shown that as the striking location changes, the relative amplitudes of different modes of vibration also changes. It was found that sound of a higher pitch is produced at the rim of the drum than anywhere else on the drum head due to higher modes of vibration becoming dominant.
MORE THAN A LABOR DISPUTE: THE PATCO STRIKE OF 1981
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul L. Butterworth
2005-01-01
Full Text Available On August 3, 1981, 13,000 air traffic controllers walked off the job. Under US law, the strike was illegal. President Ronald Reagan ordered the strikers as a group to return to work; when they did not, he ordered individual strikers to return, and again they refused. Two days later the president fired the strikers. Reagan's action transformed relations between organized labor and American management, and created the worst turbulence to hit the American airways in recent history. “More Than a Labor Dispute” examines the work stoppage and aftermath through the eyes of two controllers and a pilot, all of whom worked during the strike.
Remarkable rates of lightning strike mortality in Malawi.
Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff; Msalu, Lameck; Caro, Tim; Salerno, Jonathan
2012-01-01
Livingstone's second mission site on the shore of Lake Malawi suffers very high rates of consequential lightning strikes. Comprehensive interviewing of victims and their relatives in seven Traditional Authorities in Nkhata Bay District, Malawi revealed that the annual rate of consequential strikes was 419/million, more than six times higher than that in other developing countries; the rate of deaths from lightning was 84/million/year, 5.4 times greater than the highest ever recorded. These remarkable figures reveal that lightning constitutes a significant stochastic source of mortality with potential life history consequences, but it should not deflect attention away from the more prominent causes of mortality in this rural area.
Coverage Probability of Random Intervals
Chen, Xinjia
2007-01-01
In this paper, we develop a general theory on the coverage probability of random intervals defined in terms of discrete random variables with continuous parameter spaces. The theory shows that the minimum coverage probabilities of random intervals with respect to corresponding parameters are achieved at discrete finite sets and that the coverage probabilities are continuous and unimodal when parameters are varying in between interval endpoints. The theory applies to common important discrete ...
Probabilities, causes and propensities in physics
Suárez, Mauricio
2010-01-01
This volume defends a novel approach to the philosophy of physics: it is the first book devoted to a comparative study of probability, causality, and propensity, and their various interrelations, within the context of contemporary physics - particularly quantum and statistical physics. The philosophical debates and distinctions are firmly grounded upon examples from actual physics, thus exemplifying a robustly empiricist approach. The essays, by both prominent scholars in the field and promising young researchers, constitute a pioneer effort in bringing out the connections between probabilistic, causal and dispositional aspects of the quantum domain. This book will appeal to specialists in philosophy and foundations of physics, philosophy of science in general, metaphysics, ontology of physics theories, and philosophy of probability.
EDITORIAL Plagiarism - time to strike at the epidemic
African Journals Online (AJOL)
admin
Plagiarism - time to strike at the epidemic. Lukman Yusuf1, Abraham Aseffa2. We live in a globalized world where information is instantly shared across continents. The number of biomedical journals available for reference is quite enormous and there is a sudden huge surge of free open access journals in the last few years ...
Effects of Union Organization on Strike Incidence in EU Companies
Jansen, Giedo
2014-01-01
The author reinvestigates the relationship between the organizational power of trade unions and strikes based on data from the European Company Survey 2009 (ECS-2009) and the Institutional Characteristics of Trade Unions, Wage Setting, State Intervention and Social Pacts (ICTWSS) database, which
Monte Carlo Simulation to Estimate Likelihood of Direct Lightning Strikes
Mata, Carlos; Medelius, Pedro
2008-01-01
A software tool has been designed to quantify the lightning exposure at launch sites of the stack at the pads under different configurations. In order to predict lightning strikes to generic structures, this model uses leaders whose origins (in the x-y plane) are obtained from a 2D random, normal distribution.
Torts Liability for Strike Action and Third Party Rights.
Raday, Frances
1979-01-01
Studies the nature of the torts liability incurred in strikes and the extent of existing immunities bestowed on strikers and their organizers, and explores the principles that should govern liability and immunity. Available from Israel Law Review Association, c/o Faculty of Law, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, P.O.B. 24100, Jerusalem…
Nurses need the right to strike to protect patients.
Harrison, Malcolm
2012-04-25
Four of your readers panellists were asked if the RCN should be affiliated to the Trades Union Congress (reflections April 4). One of them said the RCN needs to modernise and join the wider trade union movement, but 'should keep the "no strike" policy that has always served it so well'.
Analysis of the effects of frequent strikes on academic performance ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The history of Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU)'s strike can be traced back to 1978, the period of the beginning of the decline in the oil boom, when the country faced the consequences of the failure by its rulers to use the oil wealth to generate production and a social welfare system. Military dictatorship had ...
On Striking for a Bargain between Two Completely Informed Agents
Houba, H.E.D.; Wen, Q.
2007-01-01
This paper provides a thorough equilibrium analysis of a wage contract negotiation model where the union must choose between strike and holdout between offers and counter-offers. When the union and the firm have different discount factors, delay in reaching an agreement may Pareto dominate many
Assemblage of strike-slip faults and tectonic extension and ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
12
and its effect on the productivity of the tight reservoirs. The study will not only guide. 95 the oil-gas ..... 5 Effect of tectonic extension and compression on coal reservoir productivity. 288. 5.1 Strike-slip compression and ..... staff of all the authors that cooperated in performing the analyses. We are also. 425 grateful to the ...
Assemblage of strike-slip faults and tectonic extension and ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
12
Assemblage of strike-slip faults and tectonic. 1 extension and compression analysis: A case. 2 study of a Lower Permian commercial coal. 3 reservoir in China. 4. 5. Shuai Yina,*, Dawei Lvb, Zhonghu Wu c .... high-quality reservoirs, and tectonic action is a leading factor for oil and gas. 70 enrichment. Therefore, it is of great ...
BIRD/WILDLIFE STRIKE CONTROL FOR SAFER AIR ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Osondu
2012-06-05
Jun 5, 2012 ... These include staff training and retraining, developing good data bank based on .... wildlife is very important in bird control. Successful habitat ... Designated staff patrols the airside areas using chemical repellants, propane cannons, distress call. Birds/Wildlife Strikes Control for Safer Air .................Usman et ...
LAW AND ETHICS OF STRIKES IN THE NIGERIAN HEALTH SYSTEM
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2014-10-06
Oct 6, 2014 ... MDCN Code of ethics intends to give right for cessation of work by workers in the health sector of the economy. Thus under the Common Law, a strike, especially in the essential services is a breach of the contract of employment. The Trade. Union (amendment) Act (Federal Republic of. Nigeria, 2005) ...
Growth control of kalanchoe cultivars Rako and Gold Strike by ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This study was conducted to test the potential of paclobutrazol and uniconazole used at the propagation stage as a plant growth retardant (PGR) of kalanchoe cultivars Rako and Gold Strike. Three node terminal cuttings were soaked in 500 mL of 0.05, 0.25, or 0.50 mg·L-1 paclobutrazol or uniconazole solution for 2 h.
Striking Inside Angola with 32 Battalion | Scheepers | Scientia ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Scientia Militaria: South African Journal of Military Studies. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 42, No 1 (2014) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Striking Inside Angola with 32 ...
Force, reaction time, and precision of Kung Fu strikes.
Neto, Osmar Pinto; Bolander, Richard; Pacheco, Marcos Tadeu Tavares; Bir, Cynthia
2009-08-01
The goal was to compare values of force, precision, and reaction time of several martial arts punches and palm strikes performed by advanced and intermediate Kung Fu practitioners, both men and women. 13 Kung Fu practitioners, 10 men and three women, participated. Only the men, three advanced and seven intermediate, were considered for comparisons between levels. Reaction time values were obtained using two high speed cameras that recorded each strike at 2500 Hz. Force of impact was measured by a load cell. For comparisons of groups, force data were normalized by participant's body mass and height. Precision of the strikes was determined by a high speed pressure sensor. The results show that palm strikes were stronger than punches. Women in the study presented, on average, lower values of reaction time and force but higher values of precision than men. Advanced participants presented higher forces than intermediate participants. Significant negative correlations between the values of force and precision and the values of force and reaction time were also found.
Expected utility with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...
Probability and complex quantum trajectories
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
John, Moncy V.
2009-01-01
It is shown that in the complex trajectory representation of quantum mechanics, the Born's Ψ*Ψ probability density can be obtained from the imaginary part of the velocity field of particles on the real axis. Extending this probability axiom to the complex plane, we first attempt to find a probability density by solving an appropriate conservation equation. The characteristic curves of this conservation equation are found to be the same as the complex paths of particles in the new representation. The boundary condition in this case is that the extended probability density should agree with the quantum probability rule along the real line. For the simple, time-independent, one-dimensional problems worked out here, we find that a conserved probability density can be derived from the velocity field of particles, except in regions where the trajectories were previously suspected to be nonviable. An alternative method to find this probability density in terms of a trajectory integral, which is easier to implement on a computer and useful for single particle solutions, is also presented. Most importantly, we show, by using the complex extension of Schrodinger equation, that the desired conservation equation can be derived from this definition of probability density
Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko
2017-01-01
Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf
Case Report: Mass Casualty Lightning Strike at Ranger Training Camp.
Thompson, Shannon N; Wilson, Zachary W; Cole, Christopher B; Kennedy, Andrew R; Aycock, Ryan D
2017-05-01
Although lightning strikes are a rare occurrence, their significance cannot be ignored given military operations in the field during all types of weather. With proper medical management, patients with lightning injuries can return to duty. Information for this case report comes from eyewitness account at the 6th Ranger Training Battalion and from review of physician documentation from the 96th Medical Group, Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. A lightning strike injured 44 Ranger School participants during a training exercise on August 12, 2015, at Camp Rudder, Florida. These patients were triaged in the field and transported to emergency department of Eglin Air Force Base. Of the 44 casualties, 20 were admitted. All were returned to duty the following day. One patient had cardiac arrest. This patient, along with two others, was admitted to the intensive care unit. Seventeen other patients were admitted for observation for rhabdomyolysis and/or cardiac arrhythmias. One patient was admitted with suspected acute kidney injury indicated by an elevated creatinine. All patients, including those admitted to the intensive care unit, were released on the day following the lightning strike without restrictions and were allowed to return to duty with increased medical monitoring. This case report highlights the need for proper triage and recognition of lightning strike injury, coordination of care between field operations and emergency department personnel, and close follow-up for patients presenting with lightning injury. Symptoms, physical exam, and laboratory findings from rigorous training can be difficult to distinguish from those resulting from lightning injury. Secondary injuries resulting from blunt trauma from falls may have been prevented by the use of the lightning strike posture. Further analysis of procedures and standard operating protocols to mitigate risk during thunderstorms may be required to prevent lightning's effects on large groups of military personnel
Management of patients during hunger strike and refeeding phase.
Eichelberger, M; Joray, M L; Perrig, M; Bodmer, M; Stanga, Z
2014-01-01
Hunger strikers resuming nutritional intake may develop a life-threatening refeeding syndrome (RFS). Consequently, hunger strikers represent a core challenge for the medical staff. The objective of the study was to test the effectiveness and safety of evidence-based recommendations for prevention and management of RFS during the refeeding phase. This was a retrospective, observational data analysis of 37 consecutive, unselected cases of prisoners on a hunger strike during a 5-y period. The sample consisted of 37 cases representing 33 individual patients. In seven cases (18.9%), the hunger strike was continued during the hospital stay, in 16 episodes (43.2%) cessation of the hunger strike occurred immediately after admission to the security ward, and in 14 episodes (37.9%) during hospital stay. In the refeed cases (n = 30), nutritional replenishment occurred orally, and in 25 (83.3%) micronutrients substitutions were made based on the recommendations. The gradual refeeding with fluid restriction occurred over 10 d. Uncomplicated dyselectrolytemia was documented in 12 cases (40%) within the refeeding phase. One case (3.3%) presented bilateral ankle edemas as a clinical manifestation of moderate RFS. Intensive medical treatment was not necessary and none of the patients died. Seven episodes of continued hunger strike were observed during the entire hospital stay without medical complications. Our data suggested that seriousness and rate of medical complications during the refeeding phase can be kept at a minimum in a hunger strike population. This study supported use of recommendations to optimize risk management and to improve treatment quality and patient safety in this vulnerable population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Introduction to probability with Mathematica
Hastings, Kevin J
2009-01-01
Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...
Linear positivity and virtual probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hartle, James B.
2004-01-01
We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics
Adavbiele, J. A.
2015-01-01
This paper was designed to x-ray the implications of incessant strike actions on the implementation of Technical education programme in Nigeria. The paper took an exploratory view on the concept of strike actions in Nigeria with particular references on notable strike actions that have occurred in Nigeria. The types of strike were explained and…
Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines
Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.
2011-01-01
Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433
Probability machines: consistent probability estimation using nonparametric learning machines.
Malley, J D; Kruppa, J; Dasgupta, A; Malley, K G; Ziegler, A
2012-01-01
Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications.
Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Grandy, W. T. Jr.
2009-01-01
In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.
Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.
Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A
2011-05-01
In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.
Yin, J. J.; Chang, F.; Li, S. L.; Yao, X. L.; Sun, J. R.; Xiao, Y.
2017-10-01
According to the mathematical analysis model constructed on the basis of energy-balance relationship in lightning strike, and accompany with the simplified calculation strategy of composite resin pyrolysis degree dependent electrical conductivity, an effective three dimensional thermal-electrical coupling analysis finite element model of composite laminate suffered from lightning current was established based on ABAQUS, to elucidate the effects of lighting current waveform parameters and thermal/electrical properties of composite laminate on the extent of ablation damage. Simulated predictions agree well with the composite lightning strike directed effect experimental data, illustrating the potential accuracy of the constructed model. The analytical results revealed that extent of composite lightning strike ablation damage can be characterized by action integral validly, there exist remarkable power function relationships between action integral and visual damage area, projected damage area, maximum damage depth and damage volume of ablation damage, and enhancing the electrical conductivity and specific heat of composite, ablation damage will be descended obviously, power function relationships also exist between electrical conductivity, specific heat and ablation damage, however, the impact of thermal conductivity on the extent of ablation damage is not notable. The conclusions obtained provide some guidance for composite anti-lightning strike structure-function integration design.
A philosophical essay on probabilities
Laplace, Marquis de
1996-01-01
A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application
Logic with a Probability Semantics
Hailperin, Theodore
2010-01-01
The present study is an extension of the topic introduced in Dr. Hailperin's Sentential Probability Logic, where the usual true-false semantics for logic is replaced with one based more on probability, and where values ranging from 0 to 1 are subject to probability axioms. Moreover, as the word "sentential" in the title of that work indicates, the language there under consideration was limited to sentences constructed from atomic (not inner logical components) sentences, by use of sentential connectives ("no," "and," "or," etc.) but not including quantifiers ("for all," "there is"). An initial
Probability with applications and R
Dobrow, Robert P
2013-01-01
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c
Introduction to probability and measure
Parthasarathy, K R
2005-01-01
According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.
Pipe failure probability - the Thomas paper revisited
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lydell, B.O.Y.
2000-01-01
Almost twenty years ago, in Volume 2 of Reliability Engineering (the predecessor of Reliability Engineering and System Safety), a paper by H. M. Thomas of Rolls Royce and Associates Ltd. presented a generalized approach to the estimation of piping and vessel failure probability. The 'Thomas-approach' used insights from actual failure statistics to calculate the probability of leakage and conditional probability of rupture given leakage. It was intended for practitioners without access to data on the service experience with piping and piping system components. This article revisits the Thomas paper by drawing on insights from development of a new database on piping failures in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide (SKI-PIPE). Partially sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI), the R and D leading up to this note was performed during 1994-1999. Motivated by data requirements of reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), the new database supports statistical analysis of piping failure data. Against the background of this database development program, the article reviews the applicability of the 'Thomas approach' in applied risk and reliability analysis. It addresses the question whether a new and expanded database on the service experience with piping systems would alter the original piping reliability correlation as suggested by H. M. Thomas
Default probabilities and default correlations
Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans
2001-01-01
Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...
Remarkable rates of lightning strike mortality in Malawi.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Monique Borgerhoff Mulder
Full Text Available Livingstone's second mission site on the shore of Lake Malawi suffers very high rates of consequential lightning strikes. Comprehensive interviewing of victims and their relatives in seven Traditional Authorities in Nkhata Bay District, Malawi revealed that the annual rate of consequential strikes was 419/million, more than six times higher than that in other developing countries; the rate of deaths from lightning was 84/million/year, 5.4 times greater than the highest ever recorded. These remarkable figures reveal that lightning constitutes a significant stochastic source of mortality with potential life history consequences, but it should not deflect attention away from the more prominent causes of mortality in this rural area.
Legal questions surrounding hunger strikes by detainees and prisoners.
Strauss, S A
1991-01-01
The 'right to die' is not of an absolute character but is subject to definite qualification. There are legal and social interests reflecting profound ethical values which militate against an absolute right on the part of a prisoner to die by means of a hunger strike. The declared policy of the South African authorities is that a prisoner who resorts to a hunger strike may not be subjected to force-feeding. This is in accordance with the 1975 Tokyo Declaration. Unfortunately the Declaration is silent on the question of whether a doctor may provide medical treatment once a hunger striker has reached the point where he is no longer capable of rational thought. In this article it is submitted that a doctor would be legally entitled to do so.
HUNGER STRIKES AND FORCE-FEEDING IN PRISONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Radu-Florin GEAMĂNU
2016-05-01
Full Text Available This study will try to give an overview and assess the international and European standards regarding the management of hunger strikes. We will analyse the international and European standards regarding the force-feeding a prisoner on a hunger strike. The paper will focus on the study of the ECtHR judgements regarding the force-feeding of hunger strikers. Also, we will address the U.S. case and the force-feeding of prisoners which is considered to be, in certain cases, an act of torture based on the international human rights standards. To close with, the study will attempt to go through the recent developments in the Romanian legislation, analysing the legislation and its conformity with the European principles and recommendations, bearing in mind the prohibition, in absolute terms, of torture or inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.
Control of striking velocity by table tennis players.
Marinovic, Welber; Iizuka, Cristina Akiko; Freudenheim, Andrea Michele
2004-12-01
This study investigated how 7 skilled table tennis players controlled velocity of a forehand drive stroke when the ball's trajectory, velocity, and spin were modified. They hit a target in response to balls launched under four different conditions. The relative and absolute times used in the backswing phase showed no significant differences among conditions. When subjects hit fastballs, there was a significant change in the time required for them to reach the peak of velocity in the forward swing phase. In addition, players decreased the velocity of their strokes to hit fast-approaching balls. These results indicate that highly skilled table tennis players need to adjust the striking velocity and striking time (relative and absolute) required to reach the peak of velocity in the forward swing phase for these task modifications. Since they used slower movement velocities to hit faster-approaching balls, skilled table tennis players may override this speed-coupling process.
Simulating Bird Strike on Aircraft Composite Wing Leading Edge.
Ericsson, Max
2012-01-01
In this master thesis project the possibility to model the response of a wing when subjected to bird strike using finite elements is analyzed. Since this transient event lasts only a few milliseconds the used solution method is explicit time integration. The wing is manufactured using carbon fiber laminate. Carbon fiber laminates have orthotropic material properties with different stiffness in different directions. Accordingly, there are damage mechanisms not considered when using metal that ...
Striking dynamics and kinetic properties of boxing and MMA gloves
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Benjamin Lee
2014-08-01
Full Text Available With the growing popularity of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA as a competitive sport, questions regarding the dynamic response and properties of MMA gloves arise. High-energy impacts from punches are very similar to boxing yet MMA competition requires the use of 4 oz fingerless glove, compared to the larger full enclosure boxing glove. This work assessed the kinetic properties and strike dynamics of MMA gloves and compared findings with traditional boxing gloves. Gloves mounted on a molded fist were impacted repetitively on an instrumental anvil designed for impact, over a 5 hour period resulting in 10,000 continuous and consistent strikes. Kinetic data from impacts were sampled at the beginning of the data collection and subsequently every 30 minutes (every 1,000 strikes. MMA gloves produced 4-5 times greater peak force and 5 times faster load rate compared to the boxing glove. However, MMA gloves also showed signs of material fatigue, with peak force increasing by 35% and rate of loading increasing by 60% over the duration of the test. Boxing glove characteristics did deteriorate but to a lesser extent. In summary, the kinetic properties of MMA glove differed substantially from the boxing glove resulting in impacts characterized by higher peak forces and more rapid development of force. Material properties including stiffness and thickness play a role in the kinetic characteristics upon impact, and can be inferred to alter injury mechanisms of blunt force trauma.
Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference
Dworsky, Lawrence N
2008-01-01
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...
Normal probability plots with confidence.
Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang
2015-01-01
Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Strike-slip and extrusion tectonics of the Greater Caucasus-Kopetdagh region
Kopp, M. L.
2012-04-01
In the Paleogene-Early Miocene, the areas of the modern Greater Caucasus and Kopetdagh were occupied by marginal seas (parts of the Paratethys intracontinental sea) inheriting the Cretaceous back-arc basins. In the Early Miocene, a collisional compression of the seas began at the time when the Arabian plate detached from Africa to move northward. The compression proceeded in a good accordance with the Arabia movement that was manifested in a general synchroneity of the Late Alpine orogenies in the Caucasus and Kopetdagh with the rifting and spreading phases in the Aden Gulf and the Red Sea. The earliest orogeny was the Styrian one of the terminal Early Miocene. It corresponds to the initial stage of the rift opening and was mostly pronounced in the east, in Kopetdagh and East Iran, where a recent structure has been formed by the initial Middle Miocene. In the Greater Caucasus, the Styrian deformations occurred in its central part only (i.e., in front of the Arabian plate northern tip) where the main Caucasian thrusts and conjugate asymmetrical megaanticline of the Central Caucasus were formed. An essential feature of the earliest, Styrian, structure of the whole Caucasus-Kopetdagh region was a series of regional right-lateral strike-slip faults. In the Kopetdagh, the strike-slips have no submeridional but northwestern direction although they occurred in the northern continuation of the submeridional right-lateral strike-slip faults framing the Lut block. In the Caucasus, they became even sublatitudinal, in parallel with the North Anatolian fault, thus constituting a single domain with the latter. So, the right-lateral strike-slip faults of East Iran, Kopetdagh, and the Caucasus compose an extensive arc convex to the north and appeared probably as a result of the right-lateral shear caused by the known counterclockwise rotation of the Arabian lithospheric plate. The Middle Miocene was characterized by a tectonic pause both in the Red Sea-Aden rift system and in the
Probability theory a foundational course
Pakshirajan, R P
2013-01-01
This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.
Flood hazard probability mapping method
Kalantari, Zahra; Lyon, Steve; Folkeson, Lennart
2015-04-01
In Sweden, spatially explicit approaches have been applied in various disciplines such as landslide modelling based on soil type data and flood risk modelling for large rivers. Regarding flood mapping, most previous studies have focused on complex hydrological modelling on a small scale whereas just a few studies have used a robust GIS-based approach integrating most physical catchment descriptor (PCD) aspects on a larger scale. The aim of the present study was to develop methodology for predicting the spatial probability of flooding on a general large scale. Factors such as topography, land use, soil data and other PCDs were analysed in terms of their relative importance for flood generation. The specific objective was to test the methodology using statistical methods to identify factors having a significant role on controlling flooding. A second objective was to generate an index quantifying flood probability value for each cell, based on different weighted factors, in order to provide a more accurate analysis of potential high flood hazards than can be obtained using just a single variable. The ability of indicator covariance to capture flooding probability was determined for different watersheds in central Sweden. Using data from this initial investigation, a method to subtract spatial data for multiple catchments and to produce soft data for statistical analysis was developed. It allowed flood probability to be predicted from spatially sparse data without compromising the significant hydrological features on the landscape. By using PCD data, realistic representations of high probability flood regions was made, despite the magnitude of rain events. This in turn allowed objective quantification of the probability of floods at the field scale for future model development and watershed management.
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fit...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...
Probability measures on metric spaces
Parthasarathy, K R
2005-01-01
In this book, the author gives a cohesive account of the theory of probability measures on complete metric spaces (which is viewed as an alternative approach to the general theory of stochastic processes). After a general description of the basics of topology on the set of measures, the author discusses regularity, tightness, and perfectness of measures, properties of sampling distributions, and metrizability and compactness theorems. Next, he describes arithmetic properties of probability measures on metric groups and locally compact abelian groups. Covered in detail are notions such as decom
Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Winkler, R.L.
1994-01-01
Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising
Probability, statistics, and queueing theory
Allen, Arnold O
1990-01-01
This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit
Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)
2002-01-01
When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.
Statistical probability tables CALENDF program
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ribon, P.
1989-01-01
The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2011-01-01
A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d
Probability Sampling - A Guideline for Quantitative Health Care ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
July 2015 Volume 12 Issue 2. 96 probability of selection, and include a high number of members of the target population (2,4). Once the sample frame and sample size have been determined, the researcher proceeds to select the sample randomly from the frame. There are various methods of random selection including the ...
Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Slunga, R.
1979-03-01
A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)
Exact Probability Distribution versus Entropy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kerstin Andersson
2014-10-01
Full Text Available The problem addressed concerns the determination of the average number of successive attempts of guessing a word of a certain length consisting of letters with given probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations to a natural language are considered. The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing order of probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations are necessary in order to estimate the number of guesses. Several kinds of approximations are discussed demonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit (CPU time. When considering realistic sizes of alphabets and words (100, the number of guesses can be estimated within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent and may therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions. For many probability distributions, the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to a normal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for the average number of guesses. The proportion of guesses needed on average compared to the total number decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in an asymptotic expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths. Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.
Kolmogorov complexity and probability measures
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel
2002-01-01
Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 729-745 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * probability measure Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002
Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts
Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.
2015-10-01
The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.
Risk estimation using probability machines
2014-01-01
Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306
DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gintautas, Tomas
2015-01-01
A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha...
Measurement Invariance, Entropy, and Probability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Eric Smith
2010-02-01
Full Text Available We show that the natural scaling of measurement for a particular problem defines the most likely probability distribution of observations taken from that measurement scale. Our approach extends the method of maximum entropy to use measurement scale as a type of information constraint. We argue that a very common measurement scale is linear at small magnitudes grading into logarithmic at large magnitudes, leading to observations that often follow Student’s probability distribution which has a Gaussian shape for small fluctuations from the mean and a power law shape for large fluctuations from the mean. An inverse scaling often arises in which measures naturally grade from logarithmic to linear as one moves from small to large magnitudes, leading to observations that often follow a gamma probability distribution. A gamma distribution has a power law shape for small magnitudes and an exponential shape for large magnitudes. The two measurement scales are natural inverses connected by the Laplace integral transform. This inversion connects the two major scaling patterns commonly found in nature. We also show that superstatistics is a special case of an integral transform, and thus can be understood as a particular way in which to change the scale of measurement. Incorporating information about measurement scale into maximum entropy provides a general approach to the relations between measurement, information and probability.
School and conference on probability theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lawler, G.F.
2004-01-01
This volume includes expanded lecture notes from the School and Conference in Probability Theory held at ICTP in May, 2001. Probability theory is a very large area, too large for a single school and conference. The organizers, G. Lawler, C. Newman, and S. Varadhan chose to focus on a number of active research areas that have their roots in statistical physics. The pervasive theme in these lectures is trying to find the large time or large space behaviour of models defined on discrete lattices. Usually the definition of the model is relatively simple: either assigning a particular weight to each possible configuration (equilibrium statistical mechanics) or specifying the rules under which the system evolves (nonequilibrium statistical mechanics). Interacting particle systems is the area of probability that studies the evolution of particles (either finite or infinite in number) under random motions. The evolution of particles depends on the positions of the other particles; often one assumes that it depends only on the particles that are close to the particular particle. Thomas Liggett's lectures give an introduction to this very large area. Claudio Landim's follows up by discussing hydrodynamic limits of particle systems. The goal of this area is to describe the long time, large system size dynamics in terms of partial differential equations. The area of random media is concerned with the properties of materials or environments that are not homogeneous. Percolation theory studies one of the simplest stated models for impurities - taking a lattice and removing some of the vertices or bonds. Luiz Renato G. Fontes and Vladas Sidoravicius give a detailed introduction to this area. Random walk in random environment combines two sources of randomness - a particle performing stochastic motion in which the transition probabilities depend on position and have been chosen from some probability distribution. Alain-Sol Sznitman gives a survey of recent developments in this
Does charge transfer correlate with ignition probability?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Holdstock, Paul
2008-01-01
Flammable or explosive atmospheres exist in many industrial environments. The risk of ignition caused by electrostatic discharges is very real and there has been extensive study of the incendiary nature of sparks and brush discharges. It is clear that in order to ignite a gas, an amount of energy needs to be delivered to a certain volume of gas within a comparatively short time. It is difficult to measure the energy released in an electrostatic discharge directly, but it is possible to approximate the energy in a spark generated from a well defined electrical circuit. The spark energy required to ignite a gas, vapour or dust cloud can be determined by passing such sparks through them. There is a relationship between energy and charge in a capacitive circuit and so it is possible to predict whether or not a spark discharge will cause an ignition by measuring the charge transferred in the spark. Brush discharges are in many ways less well defined than sparks. Nevertheless, some work has been done that has established a relationship between charge transferred in brush discharges and the probability of igniting a flammable atmosphere. The question posed by this paper concerns whether such a relationship holds true in all circumstances and if there is a universal correlation between charge transfer and ignition probability. Data is presented on discharges from textile materials that go some way to answering this question.
PSpice Model of Lightning Strike to a Steel Reinforced Structure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koone, Neil; Condren, Brian
2003-01-01
Surges and arcs from lightning can pose hazards to personnel and sensitive equipment, and processes. Steel reinforcement in structures can act as a Faraday cage mitigating lightning effects. Knowing a structure's response to a lightning strike allows hazards associated with lightning to be analyzed. A model of lightning's response in a steel reinforced structure has been developed using PSpice (a commercial circuit simulation). Segments of rebar are modeled as inductors and resistors in series. A program has been written to take architectural information of a steel reinforced structure and 'build' a circuit network that is analogous to the network of reinforcement in a facility. A severe current waveform (simulating a 99th percentile lightning strike), modeled as a current source, is introduced in the circuit network, and potential differences within the structure are determined using PSpice. A visual three-dimensional model of the facility displays the voltage distribution across the structure using color to indicate the potential difference relative to the floor. Clear air arcing distances can be calculated from the voltage distribution using a conservative value for the dielectric breakdown strength of air. Potential validation tests for the model will be presented
Recent geodynamics of major strike-slip zones
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimir G. Trifonov
2015-09-01
In all of the cases mentioned above, strike-slip deformation was expressed only or mainly during strong earthquakes. At other times, the rate of its accumulation was small and the dominant stress conditions led to transverse shortening, rarely resulting in local lengthening of the tectonic zone. These variations are caused by the tectonic peculiarities of these zones. The sinistral component of the deformation is related to the shift of the Arabian Plate relative to the African one, but also the transverse component is related to the continental slope and is expressed by the Coastal range shortening that exists in the El Ghab segment zone. There is not only a dextral deformation component, but also a transverse component, expressed by shortening of the Fergana and Talas ranges existing in the Talas-Fergana fault zone. In both zones, the shortening component became appreciable or dominant when the strike-slip deformation rate decreased. Similar, but more local, relationships were expressed in the epicentral area of the 2003 Altai earthquake and in the Western Palmyrides.
Onset of aseismic creep on major strike-slip faults
Çakir, Ziyadin
2012-10-02
Time series analysis of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, GPS measurements, and fi eld observations reveal that the central section of the Izmit (Turkey) fault that slipped with a supershear rupture velocity in the A.D. 1999, Mw7.4, Izmit earthquake began creeping aseismically following the earthquake. Rapid initial postseismic afterslip decayed logarithmically with time and appears to have reached a steady rate comparable to the preearthquake full fault-crossing rate, suggesting that it may continue for decades and possibly until late in the earthquake cycle. If confi rmed by future monitoring, these observations identify postseismic afterslip as a mechanism for initiating creep behavior along strike-slip faults. Long-term afterslip and/or creep has signifi cant implications for earthquake cycle models, recurrence intervals of large earthquakes, and accordingly, seismic hazard estimation along mature strike-slip faults, in particular for Istanbul which is believed to lie adjacent to a seismic gap along the North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara. © 2012 Geological Society of America.
Probability on compact Lie groups
Applebaum, David
2014-01-01
Probability theory on compact Lie groups deals with the interaction between “chance” and “symmetry,” a beautiful area of mathematics of great interest in its own sake but which is now also finding increasing applications in statistics and engineering (particularly with respect to signal processing). The author gives a comprehensive introduction to some of the principle areas of study, with an emphasis on applicability. The most important topics presented are: the study of measures via the non-commutative Fourier transform, existence and regularity of densities, properties of random walks and convolution semigroups of measures, and the statistical problem of deconvolution. The emphasis on compact (rather than general) Lie groups helps readers to get acquainted with what is widely seen as a difficult field but which is also justified by the wealth of interesting results at this level and the importance of these groups for applications. The book is primarily aimed at researchers working in probability, s...
Probability densities in strong turbulence
Yakhot, Victor
2006-03-01
In this work we, using Mellin’s transform combined with the Gaussian large-scale boundary condition, calculate probability densities (PDFs) of velocity increments P(δu,r), velocity derivatives P(u,r) and the PDF of the fluctuating dissipation scales Q(η,Re), where Re is the large-scale Reynolds number. The resulting expressions strongly deviate from the Log-normal PDF P(δu,r) often quoted in the literature. It is shown that the probability density of the small-scale velocity fluctuations includes information about the large (integral) scale dynamics which is responsible for the deviation of P(δu,r) from P(δu,r). An expression for the function D(h) of the multifractal theory, free from spurious logarithms recently discussed in [U. Frisch, M. Martins Afonso, A. Mazzino, V. Yakhot, J. Fluid Mech. 542 (2005) 97] is also obtained.
The Probabilities of Unique Events
2012-08-30
social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...yields an analog magnitude monotonically related to the proportion of possibilities in the mental model in which Obama is re- elected. We refer to this... internal representation that corresponds to a simple line within two boundaries: |−−−−−− | The left vertical represents impossibility, the right
Stochastic Modeling of Climatic Probabilities.
1979-11-01
students who contributed in a major way to the success of the project are Sarah Autrey, Jeff Em erson, Karl Grammel , Tom licknor and Debbie Wa i te. A...sophisticati . n an d cost of weapons systems and the recognition that the environment di-grades or offers opportunities h ~s led to tile requirement for...First , make a h istogram of the data , an d then “smooth” the histogram to obtain a frequency distribution (probability density function). The
The Diffusion of Strikes: A Dyadic Analysis of Economic Sectors in the Netherlands, 1995–2007
Jansen, Giedo; Sluiter, Roderick; Akkerman, Agnes
2016-01-01
This study examines the extent to which strikes diffuse across sectors and to what extent this diffusion of strikes can be explained by similarities and interdependencies between sectors. For this purpose, the authors examine a unique temporally disaggregated and dyadic database on strikes in Dutch
The Right to Strike in Public Employment. Key Issues Series--No. 15. Second Edition, Revised.
Sterret, Grace; Aboud, Antone
Since the 1960s, the number of strikes by public employees, especially local government employees, has increased, and the number of employees belonging to unions or associations has about tripled. Recently, attention has been focused on strikes by public employees as a result of the strike in 1981 by air traffic controllers and their subsequent…
Causes of falls of hangingwall over gullies adjacent to stabilizing strike pillars
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Turner, PA
1987-08-01
Full Text Available This report discusses the occurrence of falls of ground in strike gullies. Falls of hangingwall over strike gullies on the up-dip side of strike stabilizing pillars in longwall mining systems were investigated. Gullies were examined in both...
Strikes in France and the Netherlands; A Comparison of Labour Market Institutions
Butter, den F.A.G.; Koppes, S.Y.
2003-01-01
Strikes as a consequence of labour conflicts occur about 28 times as much in France as in the Netherlands. This paper examines the institutional differences underlying these differences in strike activity. Our empirical analysis shows that strike activity is high in France if workers were successful
Left-Lateral Strike-Slip Faulting in the East Alborz, NE Iran
Hollingsworth, J.; Walker, R.; Jackson, J.; Bolourchi, M. J.; Eshraghi, S. A.
2006-12-01
The East Alborz mountains of NE Iran are actively deforming as a result of Arabia-Eurasia collision. We combine observations of the geomorphology made using high resolution satellite, topographic and field data, with historical and recent seismicity to map major active faults in this poorly studied region. Deformation on the north side of the range occurs by range-normal shortening on the Khazar thrust fault, which separates Central Iran from the South Caspian. South of the range, deformation involves both left-lateral slip on the previously undocumented Shahrud fault system, which comprises several range-bounding fault segments, and shortening on (probably minor) thrust faults. Faulting south of the range is responsible for major historical earthquakes at Damghan (856AD) and Shahrud (1890). Deformation accommodated across the East Alborz is estimated from the difference in GPS velocities north and south of the range. South of the Alborz, northward GPS velocities across Central Iran decrease eastwards and the strike of the deforming belt changes to become more sub-parallel to the direction of South Caspian- Iran relative motion. This reduces the shortening component across the East Alborz, resulting in lower elevations between 54--57°E. West of 55.5°E, the more arc-normal shortening is achieved by partitioning of deformation onto the Khazar thrust (~1 mm/yr) and the Astaneh and Firuzkuh strike-slip faults (~3 mm/yr). East of 55.5°E, the Khazar fault ends and East Alborz deformation is accommodated primarily on the left-lateral Shahrud fault system, which may slip up to 3~mm/yr. Due to the long gap in seismicity along the eastern Shahrud fault system, the city of Jajarm (15,000 pop.) is considered at high risk from future earthquakes.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhiqun Deng
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Hydropower is the largest renewable energy source in the world. However, in the Columbia and Snake River basins, several species of Pacific salmon and steelhead have been listed for protection under the Endangered Species Act due to significant declines of fish population. Dam operators and design engineers are thus faced with the task of making hydroelectric facilities more fish friendly through changes in hydro-turbine design and operation. Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington, applied for relicensing from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to replace the 10 turbines at Wanapum Dam with advanced hydropower turbines that were designed to increase power generation and improve fish passage conditions. We applied both deterministic and stochastic blade-strike models to compare fish passage performance of the newly installed advanced turbine to an existing turbine. Modeled probabilities were compared to the results of a large-scale live-fish survival study and a Sensor Fish study under the same operational parameters. Overall, injury rates predicted by the deterministic model were higher than experimental rates of injury, while those predicted by the stochastic model were in close agreement with experimental results. Fish orientation at the time of entry into the plane of the leading edges of the turbine runner blades was an important factor contributing to uncertainty in modeled results. The advanced design turbine had slightly higher modeled injury rates than the existing turbine design; however, no statistical evidence suggested significant differences in blade-strike injuries between the two turbines, thus the hypothesis that direct fish survival rate through the advanced hydropower turbine is equal to or higher than that for fish passing through the conventional turbine could not be rejected.
Datamining approaches for modeling tumor control probability.
Naqa, Issam El; Deasy, Joseph O; Mu, Yi; Huang, Ellen; Hope, Andrew J; Lindsay, Patricia E; Apte, Aditya; Alaly, James; Bradley, Jeffrey D
2010-11-01
Tumor control probability (TCP) to radiotherapy is determined by complex interactions between tumor biology, tumor microenvironment, radiation dosimetry, and patient-related variables. The complexity of these heterogeneous variable interactions constitutes a challenge for building predictive models for routine clinical practice. We describe a datamining framework that can unravel the higher order relationships among dosimetric dose-volume prognostic variables, interrogate various radiobiological processes, and generalize to unseen data before when applied prospectively. Several datamining approaches are discussed that include dose-volume metrics, equivalent uniform dose, mechanistic Poisson model, and model building methods using statistical regression and machine learning techniques. Institutional datasets of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients are used to demonstrate these methods. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate Spearman rank correlations (rs). Over-fitting was controlled via resampling methods. Using a dataset of 56 patients with primary NCSLC tumors and 23 candidate variables, we estimated GTV volume and V75 to be the best model parameters for predicting TCP using statistical resampling and a logistic model. Using these variables, the support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance for TCP prediction with an rs=0.68 on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression (rs=0.4), Poisson-based TCP (rs=0.33), and cell kill equivalent uniform dose model (rs=0.17). The prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing datamining approaches, which are able to unravel important non-linear complex interactions among model variables and have the capacity to predict on unseen data for prospective clinical applications.
Electrical Characterizations of Lightning Strike Protection Techniques for Composite Materials
Szatkowski, George N.; Nguyen, Truong X.; Koppen, Sandra V.; Ely, Jay J.; Mielnik, John J.
2009-01-01
The growing application of composite materials in commercial aircraft manufacturing has significantly increased the risk of aircraft damage from lightning strikes. Composite aircraft designs require new mitigation strategies and engineering practices to maintain the same level of safety and protection as achieved by conductive aluminum skinned aircraft. Researchers working under the NASA Aviation Safety Program s Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project are investigating lightning damage on composite materials to support the development of new mitigation, diagnosis & prognosis techniques to overcome the increased challenges associated with lightning protection on composite aircraft. This paper provides an overview of the electrical characterizations being performed to support IVHM lightning damage diagnosis research on composite materials at the NASA Langley Research Center.
Migraine strikes as neuronal excitability reaches a tipping point.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marten Scheffer
Full Text Available Self-propagating waves of cerebral neuronal firing, known as spreading depolarisations, are believed to be at the roots of migraine attacks. We propose that the start of spreading depolarisations corresponds to a critical transition that occurs when dynamic brain networks approach a tipping point. We show that this hypothesis is consistent with current pathogenetic insights and observed dynamics. Our view implies that migraine strikes when modulating factors further raise the neuronal excitability in genetically predisposed subjects to a level where even minor perturbations can trigger spreading depolarisations. A corollary is that recently discovered generic early warning indicators for critical transitions may be used to predict the onset of migraine attacks even before patients are clinically aware. This opens up new avenues for dissecting the mechanisms for the onset of migraine attacks and for identifying novel prophylactic treatment targets for the prevention of attacks.
National Alliance of Business, Inc., Washington, DC.
CertainTeed's Precision Strike training program was designed to close the gaps between the current status of its workplace and where that work force needed to be to compete successfully in global markets. Precision Strike included Skills and Knowledge in Lifelong Learning (SKILL) customized, computerized lessons in basic skills, one-on-one…
Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.
2006-01-01
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values
Probability, statistics, and computational science.
Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane
2012-01-01
In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.
Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte
1998-01-01
We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...... to distinguish between a player's assessment of ambiguity and his attitude towards ambiguity. We also generalize the concept of trembling hand perfect equilibrium. Finally, we demonstrate that for certain attitudes towards ambiguity it is possible to explain cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma...
Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes
Olofsson, Peter
2012-01-01
This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and
THE EFFECTS OF HEIGHT AND DISTANCE ON THE FORCE PRODUCTION AND ACCELERATION IN MARTIAL ARTS STRIKES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cynthia A. Bir
2009-11-01
Full Text Available Almost all cultures have roots in some sort of self defence system and yet there is relatively little research in this area, outside of a sports related environment. This project investigated different applications of strikes from Kung Fu practitioners that have not been addressed before in the literature. Punch and palm strikes were directly compared from different heights and distances, with the use of a load cell, accelerometers, and high speed video. The data indicated that the arm accelerations of both strikes were similar, although the force and resulting acceleration of the target were significantly greater for the palm strikes. Additionally, the relative height at which the strike was delivered was also investigated. The overall conclusion is that the palm strike is a more effective strike for transferring force to an object. It can also be concluded that an attack to the chest would be ideal for maximizing impact force and moving an opponent off balance
Lectures on probability and statistics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yost, G.P.
1984-09-01
These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.
Probability and information theory, with applications to radar
Woodward, P M; Higinbotham, W
1964-01-01
Electronics and Instrumentation, Second Edition, Volume 3: Probability and Information Theory with Applications to Radar provides information pertinent to the development on research carried out in electronics and applied physics. This book presents the established mathematical techniques that provide the code in which so much of the mathematical theory of electronics and radar is expressed.Organized into eight chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the geometry of probability distributions in which moments play a significant role. This text then examines the mathematical methods in
Dependence in Probability and Statistics
Doukhan, Paul; Surgailis, Donatas; Teyssiere, Gilles
2010-01-01
This volume collects recent works on weakly dependent, long-memory and multifractal processes and introduces new dependence measures for studying complex stochastic systems. Other topics include the statistical theory for bootstrap and permutation statistics for infinite variance processes, the dependence structure of max-stable processes, and the statistical properties of spectral estimators of the long memory parameter. The asymptotic behavior of Fejer graph integrals and their use for proving central limit theorems for tapered estimators are investigated. New multifractal processes are intr
Probability theory a comprehensive course
Klenke, Achim
2014-01-01
This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms. To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as: • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...
Dictionary Based Segmentation in Volumes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Emerson, Monica Jane; Jespersen, Kristine Munk; Jørgensen, Peter Stanley
2015-01-01
We present a method for supervised volumetric segmentation based on a dictionary of small cubes composed of pairs of intensity and label cubes. Intensity cubes are small image volumes where each voxel contains an image intensity. Label cubes are volumes with voxelwise probabilities for a given...... label. The segmentation process is done by matching a cube from the volume, of the same size as the dictionary intensity cubes, to the most similar intensity dictionary cube, and from the associated label cube we get voxel-wise label probabilities. Probabilities from overlapping cubes are averaged...... and hereby we obtain a robust label probability encoding. The dictionary is computed from labeled volumetric image data based on weighted clustering. We experimentally demonstrate our method using two data sets from material science – a phantom data set of a solid oxide fuel cell simulation for detecting...
San Andreas-sized Strike-slip Fault on Europa
1998-01-01
This mosaic of the south polar region of Jupiter's moon Europa shows the northern 290 kilometers (180 miles) of a strike-slip fault named Astypalaea Linea. The entire fault is about 810 kilometers (500 miles) long, about the size of the California portion of the San Andreas fault, which runs from the California-Mexico border north to the San Francisco Bay. In a strike-slip fault, two crustal blocks move horizontally past one another, similar to two opposing lanes of traffic. Overall motion along the fault seems to have followed a continuous narrow crack along the feature's entire length, with a path resembling steps on a staircase crossing zones that have been pulled apart. The images show that about 50 kilometers (30 miles) of displacement have taken place along the fault. The fault's opposite sides can be reconstructed like a puzzle, matching the shape of the sides and older, individual cracks and ridges broken by its movements. [figure removed for brevity, see original site] The red line marks the once active central crack of the fault. The black line outlines the fault zone, including material accumulated in the regions which have been pulled apart. Bends in the fault have allowed the surface to be pulled apart. This process created openings through which warmer, softer ice from below Europa's brittle ice shell surface, or frozen water from a possible subsurface ocean, could reach the surface. This upwelling of material formed large areas of new ice within the boundaries of the original fault. A similar pulling-apart phenomenon can be observed in the geological trough surrounding California's Salton Sea, in Death Valley and the Dead Sea. In those cases, the pulled-apart regions can include upwelled materials, but may be filled mostly by sedimentary and eroded material from above. One theory is that fault motion on Europa is induced by the pull of variable daily tides generated by Jupiter's gravitational tug on Europa. Tidal tension opens the fault and
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E.; Thorbjørnsen, Steen
2002-01-01
This article and its sequel outline recent developments in the theory of infinite divisibility and Lévy processes in free probability, a subject area belonging to noncommutative (or quantum) probability. The present paper discusses the classes of infinitely divisible probability measures in classical and free probability, respectively, via a study of the Bercovici–Pata bijection between these classes.
The Inductive Applications of Probability Calculus
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Corrado Gini
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The Author goes back to Founders of Probability calculus to investigate their original interpretation of the probability measure in the applications of the probability theory to real problems. The Author puts in evidence some misunderstandings related to the inversion of deductions derived by the use of probability distributions for investigating the causes of events.
Effect of public transport strikes on air pollution levels in Barcelona (Spain).
Basagaña, Xavier; Triguero-Mas, Margarita; Agis, David; Pérez, Noemí; Reche, Cristina; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier
2018-01-01
Public transport strikes can lead to an increase of the number of private vehicle trips, which in turn can increase air pollution levels. We aimed to estimate the change in air pollution concentrations during public transport strikes in the city of Barcelona (Spain). Data on strikes of the metro, train or bus systems were collected from government records (2005-2016). We collected daily concentrations of NOx; particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10μm (PM10), 2.5μm (PM2.5), and 1μm (PM1); particle number concentration (N); black carbon (BC) and CO from research and official monitoring stations. We fitted linear regression models for each pollutant with the strike indicator as an independent variable, and models were adjusted for day of the week, month, year, and holiday periods. During the study period, there were 208days affected by a strike of the metro (28), train (106) or bus (91) systems. Half of the strikes were partial, most of them were single-day strikes, there was little overlap between strikes of the different transport systems, and all strikes had to comply with mandatory minimal services. When pooling all types of strikes, NOx and BC showed higher levels during strike days in comparison with non-strike days (increase between 4.1% and 7.7%, with higher increases for NO). The increases in these concentrations were more evident during full day and multiday metro strikes. In conclusion, alterations in public transport have consequences on air quality. This highlights the importance of public transport in reducing air pollution concentrations in cities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Earthquake Activities Along the Strike-Slip Fault System on the Thailand-Myanmar Border
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Santi Pailoplee
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This study investigates the present-day seismicity along the strike-slip fault system on the Thailand-Myanmar border. Using the earthquake catalogue the earthquake parameters representing seismic activities were evaluated in terms of the possible maximum magnitude, return period and earthquake occurrence probabilities. Three different hazardous areas could be distinguished from the obtained results. The most seismic-prone area was located along the northern segment of the fault system and can generate earthquakes of magnitude 5.0, 5.8, and 6.8 mb in the next 5, 10, and 50 years, respectively. The second most-prone area was the southern segment where earthquakes of magnitude 5.0, 6.0, and 7.0 mb might be generated every 18, 60, and 300 years, respectively. For the central segment, there was less than 30 and 10% probability that 6.0- and 7.0-mb earthquakes will be generated in the next 50 years. With regards to the significant infrastructures (dams in the vicinity, the operational Wachiralongkorn dam is situated in a low seismic hazard area with a return period of around 30 - 3000 years for a 5.0 - 7.0 mb earthquake. In contrast, the Hut Gyi, Srinakarin and Tha Thung Na dams are seismically at risk for earthquakes of mb 6.4 - 6.5 being generated in the next 50 years. Plans for a seismic-retrofit should therefore be completed and implemented while seismic monitoring in this region is indispensable.
Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers
Pugachev, V S
1984-01-01
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector
[Lightning strike and lesions outside the brain: Clinical cases and a review of the literature].
Morin, A; Lesourd, A; Cabane, J
2015-01-01
Every year, 240,000 people are struck by lightning worldwide, causing injuries leading to significant handicaps. Most of the symptoms involve brain lesions; neuromuscular sequelae and myelopathy are less common. We describe five cases of patients struck by lightning with various clinical presentations. The first patient presented painful paresthesias in both upper limbs that disappeared 18 months later; the injury was a plexopathy. The second patient developed proximal weakness in the upper-left limb due to a myopathy. Two patients presented with various motor weaknesses in the lower limbs due to motor neuron disease and myelopathy. The last patient had a transient tetraplegy, which resolved in 5minutes; the diagnosis was keraunoparalysis. Lightning injuries can have many consequences depending on the different mechanisms involved. The clinical presentation is often due to a very focal lesion without any secondary extension. Motor neuron disease probably results from post-traumatic myelopathy. We discuss the ALS-electrocution association, frequently described in the literature. Various peripheral nerve and spinal cord lesions can be seen in lightning strike victims involving myelopathy, motor neuron, muscle and plexus. Clinical syndromes are often atypical but outcome is often favorable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
The assessment of lethal propeller strike injuries in sea mammals.
Byard, Roger W; Winskog, Calle; Machado, Aaron; Boardman, Wayne
2012-04-01
Assessment of injuries in marine mammals may be required to help authorities determine whether human activity was involved. Three cases of marine animal deaths involving propeller blade strikes are reported to demonstrate characteristic features of such cases and diagnostic difficulties that may occur. Case 1: A juvenile New Zealand fur seal (Arctocephalus forsteri) suffered two parallel linear incised wounds of the flank and died following small intestinal herniation. Case 2: An Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin neonate (Tursiops aduncus) died from a deeply incised wound of the left side of the head with shattering of the skull and laceration of the underlying brain.Case 3: An adult female Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin (T. aduncus) died from two parallel chop wounds to the torso with opening of the thoracic and abdominal cavities with fractures of the ribs and vertebrae. Given that some animals may recover, and that the carcasses of those that are killed may simply not be found or reported, it is impossible to provide an estimate of the incidence of this type of injury amongst wild sea mammals. In cases that do come to forensic attention accurate evaluation of the type of injury may potentially have great medicolegal significance. Post-mortem putrefaction and post-mortem feeding by other sea animals may complicate assessments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.
Cellular nonlinear networks for strike-point localization at JET
Arena, P.; Fortuna, L.; Bruno, M.; Vagliasindi, G.; Murari, A.; Andrew, P.; Mazzitelli, G.
2005-11-01
At JET, the potential of fast image processing for real-time purposes is thoroughly investigated. Particular attention is devoted to smart sensors based on system on chip technology. The data of the infrared cameras were processed with a chip implementing a cellular nonlinear network (CNN) structure so as to support and complement the magnetic diagnostics in the real-time localization of the strike-point position in the divertor. The circuit consists of two layers of complementary metal-oxide semiconductor components, the first being the sensor and the second implementing the actual CNN. This innovative hardware has made it possible to determine the position of the maximum thermal load with a time resolution of the order of 30 ms. Good congruency has been found with the measurement from the thermocouples in the divertor, proving the potential of the infrared data in locating the region of the maximum thermal load. The results are also confirmed by JET magnetic codes, both those used for the equilibrium reconstructions and those devoted to the identification of the plasma boundary.
Cellular nonlinear networks for strike-point localization at JET
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Arena, P.; Fortuna, L.; Bruno, M.; Vagliasindi, G.; Murari, A.; Andrew, P.; Mazzitelli, G.
2005-01-01
At JET, the potential of fast image processing for real-time purposes is thoroughly investigated. Particular attention is devoted to smart sensors based on system on chip technology. The data of the infrared cameras were processed with a chip implementing a cellular nonlinear network (CNN) structure so as to support and complement the magnetic diagnostics in the real-time localization of the strike-point position in the divertor. The circuit consists of two layers of complementary metal-oxide semiconductor components, the first being the sensor and the second implementing the actual CNN. This innovative hardware has made it possible to determine the position of the maximum thermal load with a time resolution of the order of 30 ms. Good congruency has been found with the measurement from the thermocouples in the divertor, proving the potential of the infrared data in locating the region of the maximum thermal load. The results are also confirmed by JET magnetic codes, both those used for the equilibrium reconstructions and those devoted to the identification of the plasma boundary
Gamma-Ray interaction probabilities for some liquid scintillators
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garcia-Torano Martinez, E.; Grau Malonda, A.
1989-01-01
Interaction probabilities for 17 gamma-Ray energies between 1 and 1.000 KeV have been computed and tabulated. The tables may be applied to the case of cylindrical vials with radius 1,25 cm and volumes 5, 10 and 15 ml. Toluene, Toluene/Alcohol, Dioxane-Naftalene, PCS, INSTAGEL and HISAFE II scintillators are considered. Graphical results for 10 ml are also given. (Author)
Final Environmental Assessment for Conventional Strike Missile Demonstration
2010-08-11
MMPA Pygmy killer whale Feresa attenuata MMPA Dwarf sperm whale Kogia sima MMPA Pygmy sperm whale Kogia breviceps MMPA Melon -headed whale...macrorhynchus MMPA Melon Headed Whale Peponocephala electra MMPA Pygmy Killer Whale Feresa attenuata MMPA Killer Whale Orcinus orca MMPA Blainville’s...American butterflies. El Segundo blue butterfly adults mate, nectar , lay eggs, perch, and in most cases probably die on flower heads (Mattoni 1990
XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes
Pardo, Juan; Rivero, Víctor; Bravo, Gerónimo
2015-01-01
This volume features lecture notes and a collection of contributed articles from the XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes, held at CIMAT Mexico in September 2013. Since the symposium was part of the activities organized in Mexico to celebrate the International Year of Statistics, the program included topics from the interface between statistics and stochastic processes. The book starts with notes from the mini-course given by Louigi Addario-Berry with an accessible description of some features of the multiplicative coalescent and its connection with random graphs and minimum spanning trees. It includes a number of exercises and a section on unanswered questions. Further contributions provide the reader with a broad perspective on the state-of-the art of active areas of research. Contributions by: Louigi Addario-Berry Octavio Arizmendi Fabrice Baudoin Jochen Blath Loïc Chaumont J. Armando Domínguez-Molina Bjarki Eldon Shui Feng Tulio Gaxiola Adrián González Casanova Evgueni Gordienko Daniel...
Probable Linezolid-Induced Pancytopenia
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nita Lakhani
2005-01-01
Full Text Available A 75-year-old male outpatient with cardiac disease, diabetes, chronic renal insufficiency and iron deficiency anemia was prescribed linezolid 600 mg twice daily for a methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus diabetic foot osteomyelitis. After one week, his blood counts were consistent with baseline values. The patient failed to return for subsequent blood work. On day 26, he was admitted to hospital with acute renal failure secondary to dehydration, and was found to be pancytopenic (erythrocytes 2.5x1012/L, leukocytes 2.9x109/L, platelets 59x109/L, hemoglobin 71 g/L. The patient was transfused, and linezolid was discontinued. His blood counts improved over the week and remained at baseline two months later. The patient's decline in blood counts from baseline levels met previously established criteria for clinical significance. Application of the Naranjo scale indicated a probable relationship between pancytopenia and linezolid. Clinicians should be aware of this rare effect with linezolid, and prospectively identify patients at risk and emphasize weekly hematological monitoring.
K-forbidden transition probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki
2000-01-01
Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)
Direct probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rautman, C.A.
1993-01-01
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration
Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues
2016-02-24
Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike (Washington, DC: Carneige Endowment for International Peace, 2013), pp...124 James M. Acton, Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Prompt Global Strike (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2013), pp. 120-129. ...Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues Amy F. Woolf Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy
Vessel Strike of Whales in Australia: The Challenges of Analysis of Historical Incident Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Peel
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Death or injury to whales from vessel strike is one of the primary threats to whale populations worldwide. However, quantifying the rate of occurrence of these collisions is difficult because many incidents are not detected (particularly from large vessels and therefore go unreported. Furthermore, varying reporting biases occur related to species identification, spatial coverage of reports and type of vessels involved. The International Whaling Commission (IWC has compiled a database of the worldwide occurrence of vessel strikes to cetaceans, within which Australia constitutes ~7% (35 reports of the reported worldwide (~471 reports vessel strike records involving large whales. Worldwide records consist largely of modern reports within the last two decades and historical evaluation of ship strike reports has mainly focused on the Northern Hemisphere. To address this we conducted a search of historical national and international print media archive databases to discover reports of vessel strikes globally, although with a focus on Australian waters. A significant number of previously unrecorded reports of vessel strikes were found for both Australia (76 and worldwide (140, resulting in a revised estimate of ~15% of global vessel strikes occurring in Australian waters. This detailed collation and analysis of vessel strike data in an Australian context has contributed to our knowledge of the worldwide occurrence of vessel strikes and challenges the notion that vessel strikes were historically rare in Australia relative to the rest of the world. The work highlights the need to examine historical records to provide context around current anthropogenic threats to marine fauna and demonstrates the importance of formalized reporting structures for effective collation of vessel strike reports. This paper examines the issues and biases in analysis of vessel strike data in general that would apply to any jurisdiction. Using the Australian data as an example
‘The Nairobi General Strike [1950]: from protest to insurgency’
Hyde, David
2002-01-01
The Nairobi General Strike [1950] was the culmination of Kenya’s post war strike wave and urban upheaval. An unprecedented upsurge occurred with the general strikes in Mombasa [1947] led by the African Workers Federation [A.W.F.] and in Nairobi by the East African Trades Union Congress [E.A.T.U.C.]. While this has been termed and treated as a city wide strike, there is enough evidence to suggest a movement that went some way beyond Nairobi. The extent of the cohesion and reciprocal impacts am...
Operational Functions to Achieve Synergy between Special Operations and Precision Strike
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Huff, William M
2005-01-01
...). The paper describes the operational functions required from the appointed operational commander and his staff to achieve synergism through the combination of special operations and precision strike...
The Black Hole Formation Probability
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.
2015-02-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.
THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.
2015-01-01
A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment
The Chinese nuclear arsenal and its second-strike capability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cabestan, Jean-Pierre
2013-03-01
It is well known that China possesses a second- strike capability, but a great deal of uncertainty persists on the subject. Over the last few years, without officially adjusting its doctrine, China has nonetheless defined its objectives. In April 2010, the People's Liberation Army Daily indicated that China needed such a capability and contended that ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) would constitute the safest means of delivery. In the same year, the IISS estimated that the People's Liberation Army was in possession of 90 ICBMs (66 ground-based missiles and 24 SLBMs) and 400 IRBM mainly aimed at Taiwan and Japan. The Pentagon's 2012 report proposed 50-75 ICBMs and 80 -120 IRBM and MRBM. While it is established that the People's Liberation Army is developing Jin class submarines (type-094, of which there are currently two in service, which will soon rise to five) and is developing solid-propellant missiles, which could be activated more quickly, not a great deal is known about the progress of these two projects. The JL-2 (7400 km), which is mounted on SSBNs, is still being tested. In parallel, the traditional principle to which China adheres - no first use of nuclear weapons - seems to have been slightly dented. Thus, in January 2011, the Japanese press agency Kyodo (relayed by Stratfor) reported that the People's Liberation Army had lowered the threshold for use of its strategic weapons: it could henceforth envisage a preventive nuclear strike against a nuclear power that had by conventional means destroyed key strategic targets on its territory, such as a nuclear power station, a dam, or a large city, having provided prior warning to the aggressor. But what most worries the U.S. and its Asian allies, particularly the Japanese, is the quasi-total opacity of the Chinese military nuclear programme. While in April 2010, the United States and Russia signed a treaty limiting their number of strategic weapons to 1550 by 2018, China considers
Assessment of performing an MST strike in Tank 21H
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Poirier, Michael R.
2014-09-29
Previous Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) tank mixing studies performed for the Small Column Ion Exchange (SCIX) project have shown that 3 Submersible Mixer Pumps (SMPs) installed in Tank 41 are sufficient to support actinide removal by MST sorption as well as subsequent resuspension and removal of settled solids. Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is pursuing MST addition into Tank 21 as part of the Large Tank Strike (LTS) project. The preliminary scope for LTS involves the use of three standard slurry pumps (installed in N, SE, and SW risers) in a Type IV tank. Due to the differences in tank size, internal interferences, and pump design, a separate mixing evaluation is required to determine if the proposed configuration will allow for MST suspension and strontium and actinide sorption. The author performed the analysis by reviewing drawings for Tank 21 [W231023] and determining the required cleaning radius or zone of influence for the pumps. This requirement was compared with previous pilot-scale MST suspension data collected for SCIX that determined the cleaning radius, or zone of influence, as a function of pump operating parameters. The author also reviewed a previous Tank 50 mixing analysis that examined the ability of standard slurry pumps to suspend sludge particles. Based on a review of the pilot-scale SCIX mixing tests and Tank 50 pump operating experience, three standard slurry pumps should be able to suspend sludge and MST to effectively sorb strontium and actinides onto the MST. Using the SCIX data requires an assumption about the impact of cooling coils on slurry pump mixing. The basis for this assumption is described in this report. Using the Tank 50 operating experience shows three standard slurry pumps should be able to suspend solids if the shear strength of the settled solids is less than 160 Pa. Because Tank 21 does not contain cooling coils, the shear strength could be larger.
Positive Emotions Associated with "Counter-Strike" Game Playing.
Shin, Mirim; Heard, Rob; Suo, Chao; Chow, Chin Moi
2012-10-01
Digital game playing engages people for long periods of time. The pleasure offered by digital games may explain the players' consumption of this activity. Games may elicit both positive and negative emotions, which can be measured by encephalography (EEG). The EEG alpha asymmetry index (AI) is different in positive and negative emotions and so may be used to distinguish positive from negative emotions that occur during gaming. We hypothesized that the "Counter-Strike" (CS) game (Valve Software, Bellevue, WA) is pleasurable and demonstrable with a positive EEG AI. Twelve male participants ages 18-30 years underwent EEG recordings continuously during and postgame. EEG was also recorded pregame for control conditions of baseline (sitting on a chair staring at a blank wall), movement (moving fingers on the computer keyboard with a blank screen), sound (listening to the sound of the CS game with a blank screen), and screen (watching the CS game without playing). Self-ratings of emotional responses were completed at pre-, during, and postgame. A significant decrease in the EEG AI was observed under the screen condition compared with baseline, whereas an increase was observed postgame compared with the screen condition. The participants demonstrated a positive EEG AI following the "shoot" events (shoot opponents) and negative emotions after the "being shot" events. Subjective ratings of emotional response indicated happiness during and postgame, but anger and arousal were reported only during the game. The overall results are consistent with the hypothesis that predominantly positive emotional reactions are elicited from playing the CS game and concur with positive subjective ratings of happiness. Future studies may explore the relationship of game pleasure and obsessive game play.
Modeling spatial variation in avian survival and residency probabilities
Saracco, James F.; Royle, J. Andrew; DeSante, David F.; Gardner, Beth
2010-01-01
The importance of understanding spatial variation in processes driving animal population dynamics is widely recognized. Yet little attention has been paid to spatial modeling of vital rates. Here we describe a hierarchical spatial autoregressive model to provide spatially explicit year-specific estimates of apparent survival (phi) and residency (pi) probabilities from capture-recapture data. We apply the model to data collected on a declining bird species, Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), as part of a broad-scale bird-banding network, the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. The Wood Thrush analysis showed variability in both phi and pi among years and across space. Spatial heterogeneity in residency probability was particularly striking, suggesting the importance of understanding the role of transients in local populations. We found broad-scale spatial patterning in Wood Thrush phi and pi that lend insight into population trends and can direct conservation and research. The spatial model developed here represents a significant advance over approaches to investigating spatial pattern in vital rates that aggregate data at coarse spatial scales and do not explicitly incorporate spatial information in the model. Further development and application of hierarchical capture-recapture models offers the opportunity to more fully investigate spatiotemporal variation in the processes that drive population changes.
The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner
Foster, Colin
2012-01-01
This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)
Multiple decomposability of probabilities on contractible locally ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
1970) (Berlin-Heidelberg-New. York: Springer). [10] Heyer H, Probability Measures on Locally Compact Groups (1977) (Berlin-Heidelberg-. New York: Springer). [11] Jurek Z and Mason D, Operator Limit Distributions in Probability Theory (1993).
Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT
2018-01-02
We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.
Joint Probability-Based Neuronal Spike Train Classification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yan Chen
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Neuronal spike trains are used by the nervous system to encode and transmit information. Euclidean distance-based methods (EDBMs have been applied to quantify the similarity between temporally-discretized spike trains and model responses. In this study, using the same discretization procedure, we developed and applied a joint probability-based method (JPBM to classify individual spike trains of slowly adapting pulmonary stretch receptors (SARs. The activity of individual SARs was recorded in anaesthetized, paralysed adult male rabbits, which were artificially-ventilated at constant rate and one of three different volumes. Two-thirds of the responses to the 600 stimuli presented at each volume were used to construct three response models (one for each stimulus volume consisting of a series of time bins, each with spike probabilities. The remaining one-third of the responses where used as test responses to be classified into one of the three model responses. This was done by computing the joint probability of observing the same series of events (spikes or no spikes, dictated by the test response in a given model and determining which probability of the three was highest. The JPBM generally produced better classification accuracy than the EDBM, and both performed well above chance. Both methods were similarly affected by variations in discretization parameters, response epoch duration, and two different response alignment strategies. Increasing bin widths increased classification accuracy, which also improved with increased observation time, but primarily during periods of increasing lung inflation. Thus, the JPBM is a simple and effective method performing spike train classification.
Pre/post-strike atmospheric assessment system (PAAS)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Peglow, S. G.; Molitoris, J. D.
1997-01-01
The Pre/Post-Strike Atmospheric Assessment System was proposed to show the importance of local meteorological conditions in the vicinity of a site suspected of storing or producing toxic agents and demonstrate a technology to measure these conditions, specifically wind fields. The ability to predict the collateral effects resulting from an attack on a facility containing hazardous materials is crucial to conducting effective military operations. Our study approach utilized a combination of field measurements with dispersion modeling to better understand which variables in terrain and weather were most important to collateral damage predictions. To develop the PAAS wind-sensing technology, we utilized a combination of emergent and available technology from micro-Doppler and highly coherent laser systems. The method used for wind sensing is to probe the atmosphere with a highly coherent laser beam. As the beam probes, light is back-scattered from particles entrained in the air to the lidar transceiver and detected by the instrument. Any motion of the aerosols with a component along the beam axis leads to a Doppler shift of the received light. Scanning in a conical fashion about the zenith results in a more accurate and two-dimensional measurement of the wind velocity. The major milestones in the benchtop system development were to verify the design by demonstrating the technique in the laboratory, then scale the design down to a size consistent with a demonstrator unit which could be built to take data in the field. The micro-Doppler heterodyne system we developed determines absolute motion by optically mixing a reference beam with the return signal and has shown motion sensitivity to better than 1 cm/s. This report describes the rationale, technical approach and laboratory testing undertaken to demonstrate the feasibility and utility of a system to provide local meteorological data and predict atmospheric particulate motion. The work described herein was funded by
The balancing act between the constitutional right to strike and the ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
While the South African Constitution enshrines both children's right to a basic education and teachers' right to strike, conflict between these two often occurs when the way in which teachers' unions conduct strike actions detracts from learners' education. This article identifies the parties affected by industrial action in the ...
Expert Anticipatory Skill in Striking Sports: A Review and a Model
Muller, Sean; Abernethy, Bruce
2012-01-01
Expert performers in striking sports can hit objects moving at high speed with incredible precision. Exceptionally well developed anticipation skills are necessary to cope with the severe constraints on interception. In this paper, we provide a review of the empirical evidence regarding expert interception in striking sports and propose a…
Spencer, McKayka M.; Lardner, Bjorn; Mazurek, M.J.; Reed, Robert N.
2015-01-01
Striking is a typical antipredator defense exhibited by many species of snakes. While trapping Brown Treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) on Guam, we observed that snakes most frequently struck at an approaching person at a site where snakes had been trapped, marked, and handled in the past. Using a combination of between-sites and within-site comparisons, we assessed if the propensity to strike was correlated with capture histories (both recent and long-term), snake size, body condition (a proxy to nutritional stress), sex, or tail condition (broken or intact), while controlling for confounding variables. We confirmed that propensity to strike was higher at the site where we had been conducting capture-mark-recapture for several years. However, we were unable to demonstrate a correlation between striking tendencies and individual recent or long-term capture histories. The only morphological covariate that had an effect on strike propensity was sex, with females striking more often than males. After removing the site effect from our model, we found that snakes missing parts of their tails were more likely to strike than snakes with intact tails. We have yet to identify the factor(s) that cause the pronounced difference across sites in snake propensity to strike, and data from additional sites might help elucidate any geographical patterns.
The dark side of solidarity: social norms and social relations in the aftermath of strikes
Thommes, Kirsten; Akkerman, Agnes; Torenvlied, René; Born, Marieke
2014-01-01
This paper studies how employees anticipate change in social relations after a strike in their organisation. We hypothesise that two group norms affect employees' fear that a strike deteriorates the social relations with their colleagues. We distinguish between two different norms associated with a
The dark side of solidarity. The impact of norms on the aftermath of strikes
Thommes, K; Akkerman, A.; Torenvlied, R.
2014-01-01
This paper studies how employees anticipate change in social relations after a strike in their organisation. We hypothesise that two group norms affect employees' fear that a strike deteriorates the social relations with their colleagues. We distinguish between two different norms associated with a
Variation in Foot Strike Patterns among Habitually Barefoot and Shod Runners in Kenya.
Lieberman, Daniel E; Castillo, Eric R; Otarola-Castillo, Erik; Sang, Meshack K; Sigei, Timothy K; Ojiambo, Robert; Okutoyi, Paul; Pitsiladis, Yannis
2015-01-01
Runners are often categorized as forefoot, midfoot or rearfoot strikers, but how much and why do individuals vary in foot strike patterns when running on level terrain? This study used general linear mixed-effects models to explore both intra- and inter-individual variations in foot strike pattern among 48 Kalenjin-speaking participants from Kenya who varied in age, sex, body mass, height, running history, and habitual use of footwear. High speed video was used to measure lower extremity kinematics at ground contact in the sagittal plane while participants ran down 13 meter-long tracks with three variables independently controlled: speed, track stiffness, and step frequency. 72% of the habitually barefoot and 32% of the habitually shod participants used multiple strike types, with significantly higher levels of foot strike variation among individuals who ran less frequently and who used lower step frequencies. There was no effect of sex, age, height or weight on foot strike angle, but individuals were more likely to midfoot or forefoot strike when they ran on a stiff surface, had a high preferred stride frequency, were habitually barefoot, and had more experience running. It is hypothesized that strike type variation during running, including a more frequent use of forefoot and midfoot strikes, used to be greater before the introduction of cushioned shoes and paved surfaces.
Deacon, H. J.
2014-01-01
While the South African Constitution enshrines both children's right to a basic education and teachers' right to strike, conflict between these two often occurs when the way in which teachers' unions conduct strike actions detracts from learners' education. This article identifies the parties affected by industrial action in the school context,…
The Implications of Granting New Jersey Teachers the Right to Strike: A Public Policy Statement.
Lisella, Carmine; Schwartz, Patricia
Strikes are generally accepted as legitimate prerogatives of employees bargaining with employers in the private sector. Two broad questions must be answered when considering whether the right to strike should be granted public employees, including teachers. First, what are the distinctions between the public and private sectors that can reasonably…
Are physicians' strikes ever morally justifiable? A call for a return to ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Though physicians strike provides an opportunity to generate more knowledge about the process in which legitimacy of an organization can be restored, it meets with a great deal of resistance not only by the public but from within the medical profession. This paper critically examines the legitimacy of strike by medical ...
Major Burn Injury From Lightning Strike: A Case Report and Review ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
BACKGROUND: Lightning has been viewed as a sign of the anger of the “gods” from Greek mythology. Among Yorubas, thunderstorm is regarded as anger from the god of thunder, “Sango” who could strike anybody anywhere to vent his anger at someone who has committed some form of atrocity. When lightning strikes, it ...
Batter's Choice: Lessons for Teaching Tactics in a Modified Striking/Fielding Game
Sinclair, Christina
2004-01-01
When played in their standard form, striking/fielding games are often a favorite among elementary students; yet they allow for only limited participation, which is contradictory to quality physical education. This article presents a sequence of lessons leading to Batter's Choice, a modified striking/fielding game, designed to maximize the…
Strike type variation among Tarahumara Indians in minimal sandals versus conventional running shoes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel E. Lieberman
2014-06-01
Conclusion: These data reinforce earlier studies that there is variation among foot strike patterns among minimally shod runners, but also support the hypothesis that foot stiffness and important aspects of running form, including foot strike, differ between runners who grow up using minimal versus modern, conventional footwear.
A rapid assessment of species-specific bird strike risk at the Kotoka ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
A rapid assessment of species-specific bird strike risk at the Kotoka International Airport in Accra, Ghana. ... We conclude that wildlife management to avert the risk of bird strikes could be successfully achieved by adopting both proactive and reactive measures to reduce the presence of problem species at the aerodrome.
Lightning Strikes and Thunder Claps: The Strategic Bomber and Air Superiority
2012-12-01
Views November–December 2012 Air & Space Power Journal | 137 Lightning Strikes and Thunder Claps The Strategic Bomber and Air Superiority Maj Wade S...2012 to 00-00-2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Lightning Strikes and Thunder Claps: The Strategic Bomber and Air Superiority 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b
Variation in Foot Strike Patterns among Habitually Barefoot and Shod Runners in Kenya.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel E Lieberman
Full Text Available Runners are often categorized as forefoot, midfoot or rearfoot strikers, but how much and why do individuals vary in foot strike patterns when running on level terrain? This study used general linear mixed-effects models to explore both intra- and inter-individual variations in foot strike pattern among 48 Kalenjin-speaking participants from Kenya who varied in age, sex, body mass, height, running history, and habitual use of footwear. High speed video was used to measure lower extremity kinematics at ground contact in the sagittal plane while participants ran down 13 meter-long tracks with three variables independently controlled: speed, track stiffness, and step frequency. 72% of the habitually barefoot and 32% of the habitually shod participants used multiple strike types, with significantly higher levels of foot strike variation among individuals who ran less frequently and who used lower step frequencies. There was no effect of sex, age, height or weight on foot strike angle, but individuals were more likely to midfoot or forefoot strike when they ran on a stiff surface, had a high preferred stride frequency, were habitually barefoot, and had more experience running. It is hypothesized that strike type variation during running, including a more frequent use of forefoot and midfoot strikes, used to be greater before the introduction of cushioned shoes and paved surfaces.
Labor Conflict on the National Stage: Metaphoric Lenses in Israel's Teachers' Strike
Shenkar, Miriam; Shenkar, Oded
2011-01-01
Teachers often embed their labor demands within a broader context to claim high moral ground and build community support. We analyze a recent teachers' strike in Israel, looking at how the strike played out in a country where the challenges of globalization collided with a socialist legacy in the face of an existential threat. The analysis reveals…
Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes
Ibe, Oliver
2014-01-01
The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t
An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)
Gillies, Donald
2012-01-01
This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma
A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities
Barbolini, Massimiliano; Cappabianca, Federica; Savi, Fabrizio
2003-11-01
A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distances for this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that can be affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫0∞ P*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probability density function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.
Adolescents' misinterpretation of health risk probability expressions.
Cohn, L D; Schydlower, M; Foley, J; Copeland, R L
1995-05-01
To determine if differences exist between adolescents and physicians in their numerical translation of 13 commonly used probability expressions (eg, possibly, might). Cross-sectional. Adolescent medicine and pediatric orthopedic outpatient units. 150 adolescents and 51 pediatricians, pediatric orthopedic surgeons, and nurses. Numerical ratings of the degree of certainty implied by 13 probability expressions (eg, possibly, probably). Adolescents were significantly more likely than physicians to display comprehension errors, reversing or equating the meaning of terms such as probably/possibly and likely/possibly. Numerical expressions of uncertainty (eg, 30% chance) elicited less variability in ratings than lexical expressions of uncertainty (eg, possibly). Physicians should avoid using probability expressions such as probably, possibly, and likely when communicating health risks to children and adolescents. Numerical expressions of uncertainty may be more effective for conveying the likelihood of an illness than lexical expressions of uncertainty (eg, probably).
Developing personal values: trainees' attitudes toward strikes by health care providers.
Li, Su-Ting T; Srinivasan, Malathi; Der-Martirosian, Claudia; Kravitz, Richard L; Wilkes, Michael S
2011-05-01
Worldwide, health care providers use strikes and job actions to influence policy. For health care providers, especially physicians, strikes create an ethical tension between an obligation to care for current patients (e.g., to provide care and avoid abandonment) and an obligation to better care for future patients by seeking system improvements (e.g., improvements in safety, to access, and in the composition and strength of the health care workforce). This tension is further intensified when the potential benefit of a strike involves professional self-interest and the potential risk involves patient harm or death. By definition, trainees are still forming their professional identities and values, including their opinions on fair wages, health policy, employee benefits, professionalism, and strikes. In this article, the authors explore these ethical tensions, beginning with a discussion of reactions to a potential 2005 nursing strike at the University of California, Davis, Medical Center. The authors then propose a conceptual model describing factors that may influence health care providers' decisions to strike (including personal ethics, personal agency, and strike-related context). In particular, the authors explore the relationship between training level and attitudes toward taking a job action, such as going on strike. Because trainees' attitudes toward strikes continue to evolve during training, the authors maintain that open discussion around the ethics of health care professionals' strikes and other methods of conflict resolution should be included in medical education to enhance professionalism and systems-based practice training. The authors include sample case vignettes to help initiate these important discussions. Copyright © by the Association of American medical Colleges.
Clinically significant change in stroke volume in pulmonary hypertension
van Wolferen, S.A.; van de Veerdonk, M.C.; Mauritz, G.J.; Jacobs, W.; Marcus, J.T.; Marques, K.M.J.; Bronzwaer, J.G.F.; Heijmans, M.W.; Boonstra, A.; Postmus, P.E.; Westerhof, N.; Noordegraaf, A.V.
2011-01-01
Background: Stroke volume is probably the best hemodynamic parameter because it reflects therapeutic changes and contains prognostic information in pulmonary hypertension (PH). Stroke volume directly reflects right ventricular function in response to its load, without the correction of compensatory
UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) Probability Wheel.
Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K
2016-01-01
A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant," about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.
Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity
Guo, Xiao-Kan
2018-03-01
We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.
Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes
Ibe, Oliver
2005-01-01
This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections
Propagation of strike-slip faults across Holocene volcano-sedimentary deposits, Pasto, Colombia
Rovida, Andrea; Tibaldi, Alessandro
2005-10-01
This study contributes to the understanding of shear failure development on the basis of macroscopic field data collected in latest Pleistocene-Holocene pyroclastic and fluvio-lacustrine deposits in the Pasto Valley, SW Colombia. Here there is a pervasive system of microfaults and joints. Right-lateral strike-slip microfaults strike N065°, whereas left-lateral strike-slip microfaults strike N120°. Three main joint sets strike N, N065° and N020° in decreasing order of frequency. Stress computation gives a horizontal σ1 trending ˜N060° and a horizontal σ3 trending ˜N150°, consistent with earthquake focal mechanisms and stress inversion of main faults. Synthetic shears dominate resulting from nucleation of older cracks. In the basement cropping out northeast of Pasto, the NE- to ENE-striking Buesaco, Aranda and Pasto Faults show evidence of latest Pleistocene-Holocene right-lateral strike-slip motions. The structures in the Pasto Valley can be interpreted as a Mode III damage zone representing the up-dip propagation of the main faults across the young volcano-sedimentary deposits.
Collective Labor Disputes and Strikes in Russia: The Impact of Judicial Precedents and Enforcement
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elena Gerasimova
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The right to strike is recognized in the Constitution and the Labor Code of the Russian Federation as a means to resolve collective labor disputes. However, in Russia labor protests come up for discussion much more frequently than strikes. In recent years the number of labor protests in Russia, including various forms of work stoppage, has increased significantly compared to previous years, but the number of legally constituted collective labor disputes and strikes has remained very low. The legislation on resolution of collective labor disputes and mounting strikes is quite restrictive in Russia, and its enforcement also encourages employees to seek alternative ways to settle collective labor conflicts. There is little empirical research on the judicial implementation of these norms and its influence on the enforcement of legislation. Therefore, this paper analyses the reasoning of courts in cases on the legality of strikes, their interpretations of the law, and the impact these decisions have on the enforcement of the legislation on resolution of collective labor disputes and strikes. Our conclusion is that the courts act as another restrictive influence on the resolution of collective labor disputes and the exercise of the right to strike in Russia.
A simple field method to identify foot strike pattern during running.
Giandolini, Marlène; Poupard, Thibaut; Gimenez, Philippe; Horvais, Nicolas; Millet, Guillaume Y; Morin, Jean-Benoît; Samozino, Pierre
2014-05-07
Identifying foot strike patterns in running is an important issue for sport clinicians, coaches and footwear industrials. Current methods allow the monitoring of either many steps in laboratory conditions or only a few steps in the field. Because measuring running biomechanics during actual practice is critical, our purpose is to validate a method aiming at identifying foot strike patterns during continuous field measurements. Based on heel and metatarsal accelerations, this method requires two uniaxial accelerometers. The time between heel and metatarsal acceleration peaks (THM) was compared to the foot strike angle in the sagittal plane (αfoot) obtained by 2D video analysis for various conditions of speed, slope, footwear, foot strike and state of fatigue. Acceleration and kinematic measurements were performed at 1000Hz and 120Hz, respectively, during 2-min treadmill running bouts. Significant correlations were observed between THM and αfoot for 14 out of 15 conditions. The overall correlation coefficient was r=0.916 (Pfoot strike except for extreme forefoot strike during which the heel rarely or never strikes the ground, and for different footwears and states of fatigue. We proposed a classification based on THM: FFS<-5.49ms
On The Left Tail-End Probabilities and the Probability Generating ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
On The Left Tail-End Probabilities and the Probability Generating Function. ... Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics ... In this paper, another tail-end probability function is proposed using the left tail-end probabilities, p( ≤ i ) = Πṙ The resulting function, πx(t), is continuous and converges uniformly ...
A fluctuation relation for the probability of energy backscatter
Vela-Martin, Alberto; Jimenez, Javier
2017-11-01
We simulate the large scales of an inviscid turbulent flow in a triply periodic box using a dynamic Smagorinsky model for the sub-grid stresses. The flow, which is forced to constant kinetic energy, is fully reversible and can develop a sustained inverse energy cascade. However, due to the large number of degrees freedom, the probability of spontaneous mean inverse energy flux is negligible. In order to quantify the probability of inverse energy cascades, we test a local fluctuation relation of the form log P(A) = - c(V , t) A , where P(A) = p(| Cs|V,t = A) / p(| Cs|V , t = - A) , p is probability, and | Cs|V,t is the average of the least-squared dynamic model coefficient over volume V and time t. This is confirmed when Cs is averaged over sufficiently large domains and long times, and c is found to depend linearly on V and t. In the limit in which V 1 / 3 is of the order of the integral scale and t is of the order of the eddy-turnover time, we recover a global fluctuation relation that predicts a negligible probability of a sustained inverse energy cascade. For smaller V and t, the local fluctuation relation provides useful predictions on the occurrence of local energy backscatter. Funded by the ERC COTURB project.
Kluesner, Jared W.; Brothers, Daniel
2016-01-01
Poststack data conditioning and neural-network seismic attribute workflows are used to detect and visualize faulting and fluid migration pathways within a 13.7 km2 13.7 km2 3D P-Cable™ seismic volume located along the Hosgri Fault Zone offshore central California. The high-resolution 3D volume used in this study was collected in 2012 as part of Pacific Gas and Electric’s Central California Seismic Imaging Project. Three-dimensional seismic reflection data were acquired using a triple-plate boomer source (1.75 kJ) and a short-offset, 14-streamer, P-Cable system. The high-resolution seismic data were processed into a prestack time-migrated 3D volume and publically released in 2014. Postprocessing, we employed dip-steering (dip and azimuth) and structural filtering to enhance laterally continuous events and remove random noise and acquisition artifacts. In addition, the structural filtering was used to enhance laterally continuous edges, such as faults. Following data conditioning, neural-network based meta-attribute workflows were used to detect and visualize faults and probable fluid-migration pathways within the 3D seismic volume. The workflow used in this study clearly illustrates the utility of advanced attribute analysis applied to high-resolution 3D P-Cable data. For example, results from the fault attribute workflow reveal a network of splayed and convergent fault strands within an approximately 1.3 km wide shear zone that is characterized by distinctive sections of transpressional and transtensional dominance. Neural-network chimney attribute calculations indicate that fluids are concentrated along discrete faults in the transtensional zones, but appear to be more broadly distributed amongst fault bounded anticlines and structurally controlled traps in the transpressional zones. These results provide high-resolution, 3D constraints on the relationships between strike-slip fault mechanics, substrate deformation, and fluid migration along an active
Probability distributions with truncated, log and bivariate extensions
Thomopoulos, Nick T
2018-01-01
This volume presents a concise and practical overview of statistical methods and tables not readily available in other publications. It begins with a review of the commonly used continuous and discrete probability distributions. Several useful distributions that are not so common and less understood are described with examples and applications in full detail: discrete normal, left-partial, right-partial, left-truncated normal, right-truncated normal, lognormal, bivariate normal, and bivariate lognormal. Table values are provided with examples that enable researchers to easily apply the distributions to real applications and sample data. The left- and right-truncated normal distributions offer a wide variety of shapes in contrast to the symmetrically shaped normal distribution, and a newly developed spread ratio enables analysts to determine which of the three distributions best fits a particular set of sample data. The book will be highly useful to anyone who does statistical and probability analysis. This in...
Gender frames and collective action: Configurations of masculinity in the Pittston Coal strike
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Beckwith, K. [College Wooster, Wooster, OH (United States)
2001-06-01
This article develops the concept of gender frame for understanding major transformations in the collective action repertoires of social movements. Focusing on the United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) strike against the Pittston Coal Group (1989-90), the article discusses the UMWA's traditional collective action repertoire and its innovation of nonviolent protest, widely employed during the strike. Interviews with major activists and UMWA staff and officers illustrate how the UMWA employed a gender frame of mining masculinities to initiate the new nonviolent strike action. The article concludes by suggesting how collective action repertoires and framing are linked and encouraging future research on gender frames in social movements.
Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing
Zak, M.
1996-01-01
It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.
Analytical Study of Thermonuclear Reaction Probability Integrals
Chaudhry, M. A.; Haubold, H. J.; Mathai, A. M.
2000-01-01
An analytic study of the reaction probability integrals corresponding to the various forms of the slowly varying cross-section factor $S(E)$ is attempted. Exact expressions for reaction probability integrals are expressed in terms of the extended gamma functions.
The transition probabilities of the reciprocity model
Snijders, T.A.B.
1999-01-01
The reciprocity model is a continuous-time Markov chain model used for modeling longitudinal network data. A new explicit expression is derived for its transition probability matrix. This expression can be checked relatively easily. Some properties of the transition probabilities are given, as well
Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling
Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.
2007-01-01
Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…
Probability numeracy and health insurance purchase
Dillingh, Rik; Kooreman, Peter; Potters, Jan
2016-01-01
This paper provides new field evidence on the role of probability numeracy in health insurance purchase. Our regression results, based on rich survey panel data, indicate that the expenditure on two out of three measures of health insurance first rises with probability numeracy and then falls again.
Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification
Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen
2016-01-01
This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…
Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective
Sharma, Sashi
2015-01-01
There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.
Probability: A Matter of Life and Death
Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence
2016-01-01
Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…
An introduction to probability and stochastic processes
Melsa, James L
2013-01-01
Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.
Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd
objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...
Probability of Failure in Random Vibration
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1988-01-01
Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out...
An Exploratory Analysis of Littoral Combat Ships Ability to Protect Expeditionary Strike Groups
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Efimba, Motale
2003-01-01
...) to augment or replace the current defenses of Expeditionary Strike Groups (ESG). Specifically, LCS's ability to help defend an ESGs in an anti-access scenario against a high-density small boat attack is simulated. Numbers of CRUDES...
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Hancock, Daryl
2003-01-01
... as, emergent contingency operations, and major theater wars. In the near future they will accomplish this mission while deployed around the globe under the new concept of Expeditionary Strike Groups (ESG...
Three-dimensional impact kinetics with foot-strike manipulations during running
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew D. Nordin
2017-12-01
Conclusion: Loading rate–time assessment identified contrasting impact characteristics in each direction and the 3D resultant following foot-strike manipulations, with potential implications for lower extremity structures in running.
Personality Characteristics of Pre/Post-Strike Air Traffic Control Applicants
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Schroeder, David
1997-01-01
...) positions within the Federal Aviation Administration for more than 3 decades. This study was designed to assess the relationship between personality characteristics of a group of post-strike applicants (1984...
Counterproliferation Strategy: The Role of Preventive War, Preventive Strikes, and Interdiction
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Rak, Claire
2003-01-01
This thesis analyzes the potential effectiveness of preventive war, preventive strikes, and interdiction as tools for the United States to counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cecilia Soldatini
Full Text Available The presence of wildlife in airport areas poses substantial hazards to aviation. Wildlife aircraft collisions (hereafter wildlife strikes cause losses in terms of human lives and direct monetary losses for the aviation industry. In recent years, wildlife strikes have increased in parallel with air traffic increase and species habituation to anthropic areas. In this paper, we used an ecological approach to wildlife strike risk assessment to eight Italian international airports. The main achievement is a site-specific analysis that avoids flattening wildlife strike events on a large scale while maintaining comparable airport risk assessments. This second version of the Birdstrike Risk Index (BRI2 is a sensitive tool that provides different time scale results allowing appropriate management planning. The methodology applied has been developed in accordance with the Italian Civil Aviation Authority, which recognizes it as a national standard implemented in the advisory circular ENAC APT-01B.
Electrically conductive carbon fibre-reinforced composite for aircraft lightning strike protection
Katunin, Andrzej; Krukiewicz, Katarzyna; Turczyn, Roman; Sul, Przemysław; Bilewicz, Marcin
2017-05-01
Aircraft elements, especially elements of exterior fuselage, are subjected to damage caused by lightning strikes. Due to the fact that these elements are manufactured from polymeric composites in modern aircraft, and thus, they cannot conduct electrical charges, the lightning strikes cause burnouts in composite structures. Therefore, the effective lightning strike protection for such structures is highly desired. The solution presented in this paper is based on application of organic conductive fillers in the form of intrinsically conducting polymers and carbon fabric in order to ensure electrical conductivity of whole composite and simultaneously retain superior mechanical properties. The presented studies cover synthesis and manufacturing of the electrically conductive composite as well as its characterization with respect to mechanical and electrical properties. The performed studies indicate that the proposed material can be potentially considered as a constructional material for aircraft industry, which characterizes by good operational properties and low cost of manufacturing with respect to current lightning strike protection materials solutions.
Annotated Bibliography of Bird Hazards to Aircraft: Bird Strike Committee Citations 1967-1997
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Short, Jeffrey
1998-01-01
.... This annotated bibliography of bird hazards to aircraft, termed ABBHA, is a compilation of citations with abstracts on a wide range of related topics such as bird strike tolerance engineering, bird...
Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.
Narens, Louis
2014-01-01
Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.
Fixed setpoints introduce error in licensing probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Laratta, F., E-mail: flaratta@cogeco.ca [Oakville, ON (Canada)
2015-07-01
Although we license fixed (constrained) trip setpoints to a target probability, there is no provision for error in probability calculations or how error can be minimized. Instead, we apply reverse-compliance preconditions on the accident scenario such as a uniform and slow LOR to make probability seem error-free. But how can it be? Probability is calculated from simulated pre-LOR detector readings plus uncertainties before the LOR progression is even knowable. We can conserve probability without preconditions by continuously updating field setpoint equations with on-line detector data. Programmable Digital Controllers (PDC's) in CANDU 6 plants already have variable setpoints for Steam Generator and Pressurizer Low Level. Even so, these setpoints are constrained as a ramp or step in other CANDU plants and don't exhibit unconstrained variability. Fixed setpoints penalize safety and operation margins and cause spurious trips. We nevertheless continue to design suboptimal trip setpoint comparators for all trip parameters. (author)
Pre-Aggregation with Probability Distributions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach
2006-01-01
Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how the ...... is motivated with a real-world case study, based on our collaboration with a leading Danish vendor of location-based services. This paper is the first to consider the approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions.......Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex, uncertain multidimensional data this paper proposes probabilistic OLAP queries that are computed using probability distributions rather than atomic values. The paper describes how to create probability distributions from base data, and how...
Bird Strike Committee Europe (BSCE) , 13th Meeting, Bern, Switzerland 29th May to 2nd June 1978
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
1979-01-01
...: Identification of Bird Remains as Part of the Bird Strike Reporting Procedure Birdstrikes - Helicopter in GAF Collisions with Birds of Prey in the Alps The Bird Strike Reporting System in Swiss Air...
Options and pitfalls of normal tissues complication probability models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dorr, Wolfgang
2011-01-01
Full text: Technological improvements in the physical administration of radiotherapy have led to increasing conformation of the treatment volume (TV) with the planning target volume (PTV) and of the irradiated volume (IV) with the TV. In this process of improvement of the physical quality of radiotherapy, the total volumes of organs at risk exposed to significant doses have significantly decreased, resulting in increased inhomogeneities in the dose distributions within these organs. This has resulted in a need to identify and quantify volume effects in different normal tissues. Today, irradiated volume today must be considered a 6t h 'R' of radiotherapy, in addition to the 5 'Rs' defined by Withers and Steel in the mid/end 1980 s. The current status of knowledge of these volume effects has recently been summarized for many organs and tissues by the QUANTEC (Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic) initiative [Int. J. Radiat. Oncol. BioI. Phys. 76 (3) Suppl., 2010]. However, the concept of using dose-volume histogram parameters as a basis for dose constraints, even without applying any models for normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP), is based on (some) assumptions that are not met in clinical routine treatment planning. First, and most important, dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters are usually derived from a single, 'snap-shot' CT-scan, without considering physiological (urinary bladder, intestine) or radiation induced (edema, patient weight loss) changes during radiotherapy. Also, individual variations, or different institutional strategies of delineating organs at risk are rarely considered. Moreover, the reduction of the 3-dimentional dose distribution into a '2dimensl' DVH parameter implies that the localization of the dose within an organ is irrelevant-there are ample examples that this assumption is not justified. Routinely used dose constraints also do not take into account that the residual function of an organ may be
2013-05-23
The strategic and operational use of preemptive strikes has transitioned from the traditional tactic of air raids to the use of covert cyber attacks like...Stuxnet, operational planners can gain an understanding of the evolution of preemption as a concept. Examining this shift from air strikes to cyber ... attacks through the lens of U.S. Army Doctrine and the tenets of Unified Land Operations (Depth, Synchronization, Integration, Adaptability, Flexibility
A numerical model for bird strike on sidewall structure of an aircraft nose
Liu, Jun; Li, Yulong; Gao, Xiaosheng; Yu, Xiancheng
2014-01-01
In order to examine the potential of using the coupled smooth particles hydrodynamic (SPH) and finite element (FE) method to predict the dynamic responses of aircraft structures in bird strike events, bird-strike tests on the sidewall structure of an aircraft nose are carried out and numerically simulated. The bird is modeled with SPH and described by the Murnaghan equation of state, while the structure is modeled with finite elements. A coupled SPH–FE method is developed to simulate the bird...
Upward streamers produced by a lightning strike to radio transmission towers
Krider, E. Philip; Wetmore, Ralph H.
1987-01-01
A lightning strike to the center of three 78-m radio transmission towers produced upward discharges with lengths of 40 and 79 m from each of the neighboring towers. This strike also caused a number of insulators on guy wires that supported the tower to flash over, and the locations of these points and the two-dimensional geometry of the discharge channels are projected onto a vertical plane that is centered on the tower.
The Left Labourites and the General Strike of 1926 in the UK
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Evgeniya G. Blosfeld
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The author analyses the left labourites’ attitude to the interaction of the Labour Party and trade unions and use of general strike as a means of the social struggle. Besides the article analyses the left labourites’ estimation of 1926 general strike and the causes of the defeat, and the strike of the miners who decided to continue it. The left labourites defended the branch principle of the trade unions’ organization based on the shopstewards’ model which was better adopted for the strike struggle. The left labourites took into account that the general structure of the labour movement would remain the same, but the Labour Party would take over the leadership from trade unions. The left labourites supported the peaceful way of transition to socialism and they considered the general strike to be analogy of social revolution or a means of pressure of the government for nationalization of the main economic branches and the improvement of the workers’ life conditions. Under extreme circumstances, the general strike was considered to be a means to prevent antidemocratic revolution. Evaluating the general strike of 1926, the author marks the absence of unity in the leadership, hesitations and inconsistency of the left labourites themselves. They didn’t give a single proposal about the improvement of the working-class movement organization except of state British Trade Unions Congress. As a result, the criticism of the General Council’s renegade position was bestowed upon the leadership of the Miners Federation who didn’t submit to the General Council order to stop the strike.
The single match approach to strike rate adjustments in batting performance measures in cricket.
Lemmer, Hermanus H
2011-01-01
Batting performance measures containing strike rate adjustments take into account the important fact that if two batsmen had scored the same number of runs in a match, the one with the better strike rate had performed best. But match conditions can influence the batting and bowling performances of cricket players. On a good pitch a batsman can get a good score at a high strike rate, but if the pitch was bad, a similar good score is normally accompanied by a much lower strike rate. The main objective of this study is to propose a method that can be used to make batsmen's scores comparable despite the fact that playing conditions might have been very different. The number of runs scored by a batsman is adjusted by comparing his strike rate with the overall strike rate of all the players in the specific match. These adjusted runs are then used in the most appropriate formula to calculate the average of the batsman. The method is illustrated by using the results of the Indian Premier League 2009 Twenty20 Series played during May and June 2009. The main conclusion is that the traditional average is not the most appropriate measure to compare batsmen's performances after conclusion of a short series. Key pointsIt is unfair to compare the score of a batsman obtained on a good pitch under ideal batting conditions with that of a batsman who had to battle under severe conditions.By comparing a batsman's strike rate with the overall strike rate of the players in the specific match, his score can be adjusted to get a better figure for his true performance.The results demonstrate clearly that the use of adjusted scores lead to rankings that differ from those based on the traditional measures.
Carrier Aviation and Hybrid Conflict: The Future of the Strike Fighter
2011-05-01
Throughout strike fighter squadrons, the TOPGUN manual is the bible, "TOPGUN recommends ... " is the gospel , and Strike Fighter Instructors (SFTI) are the...34. 60 Ibid, 7. 61 Ibid, 34. 62 Lambeth, 2. 63 Ibid .. 64 Ibid, 3 . . 65 Matthew Klam, "Status is ... for Navy Fighter Pilots; An Air-to-Air...Naval War College, 2004. Klain, Matthew . "Status is ... for Navy Fighter Pilots; An Air-to-Air Kill". NYTIMES. COM, November 15, 1998. http
Tabak, N; Wagner, N
1997-07-01
The purpose of this article is to deliberate the moral and legal dilemma entailed in the weapon of the labour strike as a pressure tactic on the Israeli Finance Ministry regarding job slots, budgets and, in effect, violating the collective agreement signed by the nurses and impairing patients' treatment, as opposed to refraining from striking and suffering the heavy burden of work, the lack of trained personnel, low wages, and the inability to give patients proper, high quality treatment.
Weiner, Kevin S; Barnett, Michael A; Witthoft, Nathan; Golarai, Golijeh; Stigliani, Anthony; Kay, Kendrick N; Gomez, Jesse; Natu, Vaidehi S; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl; Grill-Spector, Kalanit
2017-04-18
The parahippocampal place area (PPA) is a widely studied high-level visual region in the human brain involved in place and scene processing. The goal of the present study was to identify the most probable location of place-selective voxels in medial ventral temporal cortex. To achieve this goal, we first used cortex-based alignment (CBA) to create a probabilistic place-selective region of interest (ROI) from one group of 12 participants. We then tested how well this ROI could predict place selectivity in each hemisphere within a new group of 12 participants. Our results reveal that a probabilistic ROI (pROI) generated from one group of 12 participants accurately predicts the location and functional selectivity in individual brains from a new group of 12 participants, despite between subject variability in the exact location of place-selective voxels relative to the folding of parahippocampal cortex. Additionally, the prediction accuracy of our pROI is significantly higher than that achieved by volume-based Talairach alignment. Comparing the location of the pROI of the PPA relative to published data from over 500 participants, including data from the Human Connectome Project, shows a striking convergence of the predicted location of the PPA and the cortical location of voxels exhibiting the highest place selectivity across studies using various methods and stimuli. Specifically, the most predictive anatomical location of voxels exhibiting the highest place selectivity in medial ventral temporal cortex is the junction of the collateral and anterior lingual sulci. Methodologically, we make this pROI freely available (vpnl.stanford.edu/PlaceSelectivity), which provides a means to accurately identify a functional region from anatomical MRI data when fMRI data are not available (for example, in patient populations). Theoretically, we consider different anatomical and functional factors that may contribute to the consistent anatomical location of place selectivity
THE SINGLE MATCH APPROACH TO STRIKE RATE ADJUSTMENTS IN BATTING PERFORMANCE MEASURES IN CRICKET
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hermanus H. Lemmer
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Batting performance measures containing strike rate adjustments take into account the important fact that if two batsmen had scored the same number of runs in a match, the one with the better strike rate had performed best. But match conditions can influence the batting and bowling performances of cricket players. On a good pitch a batsman can get a good score at a high strike rate, but if the pitch was bad, a similar good score is normally accompanied by a much lower strike rate. The main objective of this study is to propose a method that can be used to make batsmen's scores comparable despite the fact that playing conditions might have been very different. The number of runs scored by a batsman is adjusted by comparing his strike rate with the overall strike rate of all the players in the specific match. These adjusted runs are then used in the most appropriate formula to calculate the average of the batsman. The method is illustrated by using the results of the Indian Premier League 2009 Twenty20 Series played during May and June 2009. The main conclusion is that the traditional average is not the most appropriate measure to compare batsmen's performances after conclusion of a short series.
Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.
2001-01-01
Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3
Acceptance Probability (P a) Analysis for Process Validation Lifecycle Stages.
Alsmeyer, Daniel; Pazhayattil, Ajay; Chen, Shu; Munaretto, Francesco; Hye, Maksuda; Sanghvi, Pradeep
2016-04-01
This paper introduces an innovative statistical approach towards understanding how variation impacts the acceptance criteria of quality attributes. Because of more complex stage-wise acceptance criteria, traditional process capability measures are inadequate for general application in the pharmaceutical industry. The probability of acceptance concept provides a clear measure, derived from specific acceptance criteria for each quality attribute. In line with the 2011 FDA Guidance, this approach systematically evaluates data and scientifically establishes evidence that a process is capable of consistently delivering quality product. The probability of acceptance provides a direct and readily understandable indication of product risk. As with traditional capability indices, the acceptance probability approach assumes that underlying data distributions are normal. The computational solutions for dosage uniformity and dissolution acceptance criteria are readily applicable. For dosage uniformity, the expected AV range may be determined using the s lo and s hi values along with the worst case estimates of the mean. This approach permits a risk-based assessment of future batch performance of the critical quality attributes. The concept is also readily applicable to sterile/non sterile liquid dose products. Quality attributes such as deliverable volume and assay per spray have stage-wise acceptance that can be converted into an acceptance probability. Accepted statistical guidelines indicate processes with C pk > 1.33 as performing well within statistical control and those with C pk 1.33 is associated with a centered process that will statistically produce less than 63 defective units per million. This is equivalent to an acceptance probability of >99.99%.
Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frič Roman
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.
Probability an introduction with statistical applications
Kinney, John J
2014-01-01
Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory."" - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h
Computation of the Complex Probability Function
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Trainer, Amelia Jo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ledwith, Patrick John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2017-08-22
The complex probability function is important in many areas of physics and many techniques have been developed in an attempt to compute it for some z quickly and e ciently. Most prominent are the methods that use Gauss-Hermite quadrature, which uses the roots of the n^{th} degree Hermite polynomial and corresponding weights to approximate the complex probability function. This document serves as an overview and discussion of the use, shortcomings, and potential improvements on the Gauss-Hermite quadrature for the complex probability function.
Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd
The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly...... report the true subjective probability of a binary event, even under Subjective Expected Utility. To address this one can “calibrate” inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have...... reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes providing one is willing to assume Subjective Expected Utility....
Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd
2014-01-01
We evaluate a binary lottery procedure for inducing risk neutral behavior in a subjective belief elicitation task. Prior research has shown this procedure to robustly induce risk neutrality when subjects are given a single risk task defined over objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from...... the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure also induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation of subjective probabilities in subjects...
Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt
2015-01-01
This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....
Probabilities on Streams and Reflexive Games
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew Schumann
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Probability measures on streams (e.g. on hypernumbers and p-adic numbers have been defined. It was shown that these probabilities can be used for simulations of reflexive games. In particular, it can be proved that Aumann's agreement theorem does not hold for these probabilities. Instead of this theorem, there is a statement that is called the reflexion disagreement theorem. Based on this theorem, probabilistic and knowledge conditions can be defined for reflexive games at various reflexion levels up to the infinite level. (original abstract
Handbook of probability theory and applications
Rudas, Tamas
2008-01-01
""This is a valuable reference guide for readers interested in gaining a basic understanding of probability theory or its applications in problem solving in the other disciplines.""-CHOICEProviding cutting-edge perspectives and real-world insights into the greater utility of probability and its applications, the Handbook of Probability offers an equal balance of theory and direct applications in a non-technical, yet comprehensive, format. Editor Tamás Rudas and the internationally-known contributors present the material in a manner so that researchers of vari
Concussion in professional football: biomechanics of the striking player--part 8.
Viano, David C; Pellman, Elliot J
2005-02-01
Concussive impacts in professional football were simulated in laboratory tests to determine the collision mechanics resulting in injury to the struck player and the biomechanics of the striking players, who were not concussed or neck-injured in the tackle. Twenty-seven helmet-to-helmet collisions were reconstructed in laboratory tests using Hybrid III dummies. The head impact velocity, direction, and kinematics matched game video. Translational and rotational head accelerations and six-axis upper neck loads and moments were used to evaluate how the striking player delivered the concussive blow. The neck injury criterion, Nij, was calculated to assess neck injury risks in the striking player. The time-averaged impact force reached 6372 +/- 2486 N at 7.2 milliseconds because of 46.8 +/- 21.7 g head acceleration and 3624 +/- 1729 N neck compression force in the striking player. Fifty-seven percent of the load was contributed by neck compression. The striking players had their heads down and lined up the impact axis through their necks and torsos. This allowed momentum transfer with minimal neck bending and increased the effective mass of the striking player to 1.67 times that of the struck player at peak load. The impact caused 94.3 +/- 27.5 g head acceleration in the concussed players and 67.9 +/- 14.5 g without concussion (t = 2.06, df = 25, P = 0.025). The striking player's Nij was greater than tolerance in 9 of 27 cases by exceeding the 4000 N neck compression limit. For these cases, the average neck compression force was 6631 +/- 977 N (range, 5210-8194 N). Nij was 1.25 +/- 0.16 for eight cases above the tolerance Nij = 1.0. In the NFL, striking players line up their heads, necks, and torsos to deliver maximum force to the other player in helmet-to-helmet impacts. The concussive force is from acceleration of the striking player's head and torso load through the neck. Even though neck responses exceeded tolerances, no striking player experienced neck injury or
Probability, statistics and modelling in public health
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Nikulin, Mikhail Stepanovich; Commenges, Daniel; Huber, Catherine
2006-01-01
.... Several well known biostatisticians from Europe and America were invited. A special issue of Lifetime Data Analysis was published (Volume 10, No 4), gathering some of the works discussed at this symposium. This volume gathers a larger number of papers, some of them being extended versions of papers published in the Lifetime Data Analysis issu...
Probability of large explosive volcanic eruptions in the Cascades
Nathenson, M.; Clynne, M. A.
2011-12-01
Estimating the probability of large explosive eruptions in the Cascades is problematic because they occur relatively infrequently. Although some volcanic centers have been more likely to have large eruptions than others, the calculation of the probability of large eruptions for individual volcanic centers is inappropriate. A center that has had a large eruption in the past will not necessarily have a large eruption in the future, and the occurrence for individual volcanic centers is too infrequent to have much confidence in a probability estimate. The sources of some large eruptions are ambiguous (e.g. Shevlin Park Tuff, Oregon) or unknown (Dibekulewe ash), but because the effects of large eruptions are quite widespread, the precise location of the source is less important in terms of hazards. Thus, we focus on the calculation of probability of large eruptions for the Cascade arc as a whole. To estimate the probability, we have chosen a time period for documenting eruptions of 1.15 Ma (the age of the eruption of Kulshan caldera) as a balance between the likelihood of there being good information but with a long enough time period to get a reasonable number of occurrences. We have compiled data from the literature on eruptions larger than 5 km3 in erupted volume to exclude the relatively frequent eruptions ~1-2 km3. The largest eruptions are clearly or likely to have been associated with caldera formation. For erupted volumes greater than 5 km3, 19 events have occurred in the last 1.15 Ma. A plot of event number versus age shows a high rate of occurrence since 13.5 ka and a much lower rate before then. Most of the events since 13.5 ka are 5-10 km3. Events 10 km3 and larger have occurred at a reasonably constant rate since 630 ka. The difference between the two data sets is probably the poor preservation of deposits for events between 5 and 10 km3 that occurred prior to the ending of the glaciation at about 15 ka. Before 630 ka, the only eruption > 10 km3 is Kulshan
Probability and statistics with integrated software routines
Deep, Ronald
2005-01-01
Probability & Statistics with Integrated Software Routines is a calculus-based treatment of probability concurrent with and integrated with statistics through interactive, tailored software applications designed to enhance the phenomena of probability and statistics. The software programs make the book unique.The book comes with a CD containing the interactive software leading to the Statistical Genie. The student can issue commands repeatedly while making parameter changes to observe the effects. Computer programming is an excellent skill for problem solvers, involving design, prototyping, data gathering, testing, redesign, validating, etc, all wrapped up in the scientific method.See also: CD to accompany Probability and Stats with Integrated Software Routines (0123694698)* Incorporates more than 1,000 engaging problems with answers* Includes more than 300 solved examples* Uses varied problem solving methods
Determining probabilities of geologic events and processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hunter, R.L.; Mann, C.J.; Cranwell, R.M.
1985-01-01
The Environmental Protection Agency has recently published a probabilistic standard for releases of high-level radioactive waste from a mined geologic repository. The standard sets limits for contaminant releases with more than one chance in 100 of occurring within 10,000 years, and less strict limits for releases of lower probability. The standard offers no methods for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes, and no consensus exists in the waste-management community on how to do this. Sandia National Laboratories is developing a general method for determining probabilities of a given set of geologic events and processes. In addition, we will develop a repeatable method for dealing with events and processes whose probability cannot be determined. 22 refs., 4 figs
Certainties and probabilities of the IPCC
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
2004-01-01
Based on an analysis of information about the climate evolution, simulations of a global warming and the snow coverage monitoring of Meteo-France, the IPCC presented its certainties and probabilities concerning the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)
On Convergent Probability of a Random Walk
Lee, Y.-F.; Ching, W.-K.
2006-01-01
This note introduces an interesting random walk on a straight path with cards of random numbers. The method of recurrent relations is used to obtain the convergent probability of the random walk with different initial positions.
Predicting binary choices from probability phrase meanings.
Wallsten, Thomas S; Jang, Yoonhee
2008-08-01
The issues of how individuals decide which of two events is more likely and of how they understand probability phrases both involve judging relative likelihoods. In this study, we investigated whether derived scales representing probability phrase meanings could be used within a choice model to predict independently observed binary choices. If they can, this simultaneously provides support for our model and suggests that the phrase meanings are measured meaningfully. The model assumes that, when deciding which of two events is more likely, judges take a single sample from memory regarding each event and respond accordingly. The model predicts choice probabilities by using the scaled meanings of individually selected probability phrases as proxies for confidence distributions associated with sampling from memory. Predictions are sustained for 34 of 41 participants but, nevertheless, are biased slightly low. Sequential sampling models improve the fit. The results have both theoretical and applied implications.
Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.
Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji
2018-01-01
An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.
Modelling the probability of building fires
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vojtěch Barták
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.
Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA)
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Xu, Xiaojiang; Amin, Mitesh; Santee, William R
2008-01-01
A Probability of Survival Decision Aid (PSDA) is developed to predict survival time for hypothermia and dehydration during prolonged exposure at sea in both air and water for a wide range of environmental conditions...
Liquefaction Probability Curves for Surficial Geologic Units
Holzer, T. L.; Noce, T. E.; Bennett, M. J.
2009-12-01
Liquefaction probability curves that predict the probability of surface manifestations of earthquake-induced liquefaction are developed for 14 different surficial geologic deposits. The geologic units include alluvial fan, beach ridge, river delta, eolian dune, point bar, floodbasin, natural river levee, abandoned river channel, deep-water lake, lagoonal, sandy artificial fill, and valley train deposits. Probability is conditioned on earthquake magnitude and peak ground acceleration. Curves are developed for water table depths of 1.5 and 5.0 m. Probabilities were derived from complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) that were computed from 935 cone penetration tests. Most of the curves can be fit with a 3-parameter logistic function, which facilitates computations of probability. For natural deposits with a water table at 1.5 m depth and subjected to an M7.5 earthquake with a PGA = 0.25 g, probabilities range from 0.5 for fluvial point bar, barrier island beach ridge, and deltaic deposits. Retrospective predictions of liquefaction during historical earthquakes based on the curves compare favorably to post-earthquake observations. We also have used the curves to assign ranges of liquefaction probabilities to the susceptibility categories proposed by Youd and Perkins (1978) for different geologic deposits. For the earthquake loading and conditions described above, probabilities range from 0-0.08 for low, 0.09-0.30 for moderate, 0.31-0.62 for high, to 0.63-1.00 for very high susceptibility. Liquefaction probability curves have two primary practical applications. First, the curves can be combined with seismic source characterizations to transform surficial geologic maps into probabilistic liquefaction hazard maps. Geographic specific curves are clearly desirable, but in the absence of such information, generic liquefaction probability curves provide a first approximation of liquefaction hazard. Such maps are useful both
8th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics
Giordani, Paolo; Vantaggi, Barbara; Gagolewski, Marek; Gil, María; Grzegorzewski, Przemysław; Hryniewicz, Olgierd
2017-01-01
This proceedings volume is a collection of peer reviewed papers presented at the 8th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS 2016) held in Rome (Italy). The book is dedicated to Data science which aims at developing automated methods to analyze massive amounts of data and to extract knowledge from them. It shows how Data science employs various programming techniques and methods of data wrangling, data visualization, machine learning, probability and statistics. The soft methods proposed in this volume represent a collection of tools in these fields that can also be useful for data science.
Probability of Grounding and Collision Events
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1996-01-01
To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship......-ship collisions, ship-platform collisions, and ship groundings. The main benefit of the method is that it allows comparisons of various navigation routes....
Probability and statistics for computer science
Johnson, James L
2011-01-01
Comprehensive and thorough development of both probability and statistics for serious computer scientists; goal-oriented: ""to present the mathematical analysis underlying probability results"" Special emphases on simulation and discrete decision theory Mathematically-rich, but self-contained text, at a gentle pace Review of calculus and linear algebra in an appendix Mathematical interludes (in each chapter) which examine mathematical techniques in the context of probabilistic or statistical importance Numerous section exercises, summaries, historical notes, and Further Readings for reinforcem
Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Picard, Richard Roy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Vander Wiel, Scott Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2016-05-13
Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.
Correlations and Non-Linear Probability Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Breen, Richard; Holm, Anders; Karlson, Kristian Bernt
2014-01-01
Although the parameters of logit and probit and other non-linear probability models are often explained and interpreted in relation to the regression coefficients of an underlying linear latent variable model, we argue that they may also be usefully interpreted in terms of the correlations betwee...... certain circumstances, which we explain, the derived correlation provides a way of overcoming the problems inherent in cross-sample comparisons of the parameters of non-linear probability models....
Familiarity and preference for pitch probability profiles.
Cui, Anja-Xiaoxing; Collett, Meghan J; Troje, Niko F; Cuddy, Lola L
2015-05-01
We investigated familiarity and preference judgments of participants toward a novel musical system. We exposed participants to tone sequences generated from a novel pitch probability profile. Afterward, we either asked participants to identify more familiar or we asked participants to identify preferred tone sequences in a two-alternative forced-choice task. The task paired a tone sequence generated from the pitch probability profile they had been exposed to and a tone sequence generated from another pitch probability profile at three levels of distinctiveness. We found that participants identified tone sequences as more familiar if they were generated from the same pitch probability profile which they had been exposed to. However, participants did not prefer these tone sequences. We interpret this relationship between familiarity and preference to be consistent with an inverted U-shaped relationship between knowledge and affect. The fact that participants identified tone sequences as even more familiar if they were generated from the more distinctive (caricatured) version of the pitch probability profile which they had been exposed to suggests that the statistical learning of the pitch probability profile is involved in gaining of musical knowledge.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lühr, Armin; Löck, Steffen; Jakobi, Annika
2017-01-01
PURPOSE: Objectives of this work are (1) to derive a general clinically relevant approach to model tumor control probability (TCP) for spatially variable risk of failure and (2) to demonstrate its applicability by estimating TCP for patients planned for photon and proton irradiation. METHODS...... AND MATERIALS: The approach divides the target volume into sub-volumes according to retrospectively observed spatial failure patterns. The product of all sub-volume TCPi values reproduces the observed TCP for the total tumor. The derived formalism provides for each target sub-volume i the tumor control dose (D...... clinical target volume (CTV), and elective CTV (CTVE). The risk of a local failure in each of these sub-volumes was taken from the literature. RESULTS: Convenient expressions for D50,i and γ50,i were provided for the Poisson and the logistic model. Comparable TCP estimates were obtained for photon...
Foot strike patterns of recreational and sub-elite runners in a long-distance road race.
Larson, Peter; Higgins, Erin; Kaminski, Justin; Decker, Tamara; Preble, Janine; Lyons, Daniela; McIntyre, Kevin; Normile, Adam
2011-12-01
Although the biomechanical properties of the various types of running foot strike (rearfoot, midfoot, and forefoot) have been studied extensively in the laboratory, only a few studies have attempted to quantify the frequency of running foot strike variants among runners in competitive road races. We classified the left and right foot strike patterns of 936 distance runners, most of whom would be considered of recreational or sub-elite ability, at the 10 km point of a half-marathon/marathon road race. We classified 88.9% of runners at the 10 km point as rearfoot strikers, 3.4% as midfoot strikers, 1.8% as forefoot strikers, and 5.9% of runners exhibited discrete foot strike asymmetry. Rearfoot striking was more common among our sample of mostly recreational distance runners than has been previously reported for samples of faster runners. We also compared foot strike patterns of 286 individual marathon runners between the 10 km and 32 km race locations and observed increased frequency of rearfoot striking at 32 km. A large percentage of runners switched from midfoot and forefoot foot strikes at 10 km to rearfoot strikes at 32 km. The frequency of discrete foot strike asymmetry declined from the 10 km to the 32 km location. Among marathon runners, we found no significant relationship between foot strike patterns and race times.
Select injury-related variables are affected by stride length and foot strike style during running.
Boyer, Elizabeth R; Derrick, Timothy R
2015-09-01
Some frontal plane and transverse plane variables have been associated with running injury, but it is not known if they differ with foot strike style or as stride length is shortened. To identify if step width, iliotibial band strain and strain rate, positive and negative free moment, pelvic drop, hip adduction, knee internal rotation, and rearfoot eversion differ between habitual rearfoot and habitual mid-/forefoot strikers when running with both a rearfoot strike (RFS) and a mid-/forefoot strike (FFS) at 3 stride lengths. Controlled laboratory study. A total of 42 healthy runners (21 habitual rearfoot, 21 habitual mid-/forefoot) ran overground at 3.35 m/s with both a RFS and a FFS at their preferred stride lengths and 5% and 10% shorter. Variables did not differ between habitual groups. Step width was 1.5 cm narrower for FFS, widening to 0.8 cm as stride length shortened. Iliotibial band strain and strain rate did not differ between foot strikes but decreased as stride length shortened (0.3% and 1.8%/s, respectively). Pelvic drop was reduced 0.7° for FFS compared with RFS, and both pelvic drop and hip adduction decreased as stride length shortened (0.8° and 1.5°, respectively). Peak knee internal rotation was not affected by foot strike or stride length. Peak rearfoot eversion was not different between foot strikes but decreased 0.6° as stride length shortened. Peak positive free moment (normalized to body weight [BW] and height [h]) was not affected by foot strike or stride length. Peak negative free moment was -0.0038 BW·m/h greater for FFS and decreased -0.0004 BW·m/h as stride length shortened. The small decreases in most variables as stride length shortened were likely associated with the concomitant wider step width. RFS had slightly greater pelvic drop, while FFS had slightly narrower step width and greater negative free moment. Shortening one's stride length may decrease or at least not increase propensity for running injuries based on the variables
Cimadoro, Giuseppe; Mahaffey, Ryan; Babault, Nicolas
2018-04-04
Muay Thai fighters strongly rely on the use of the roundhouse kick due to its effectiveness (i.e. power) and implications on the final score. Therefore, different striking tempos at full power are used during training as a method to enhance kicking power. However, the neuromuscular responses are unknown. Thus, the goal of this study was to investigate neuromuscular responses to a single bout of shorter (every second = H1) and longer (every 3s = H3) kick striking time intervals, measured with the countermovement jump (CMJ). Nine professional Muay Thai fighters participated in this randomized, cross-over trial. CMJs were measured on force plates before and after (post 0min, post 5min, post 10min, post 20min and post 30min) two striking (1set x 20reps) conditions (H1; H3). Although no difference was observed between H1 and H3 values, neuromuscular fatigue parameters displayed different patterns over time. CMJ height decreased immediately after H3 striking (PMuay Thai and conditioning coaches should focus on hard striking with both long and slow pacing during specific heavy bag or pad work.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H J (Jaco Deacon
2014-06-01
Full Text Available While the South African Constitution enshrines both children's right to a basic education and teachers' right to strike, conflict between these two often occurs when the way in which teachers' unions conduct strike actions detracts from learners' education. This article identifies the parties affected by industrial action in the school context, and then proceeds to examine educators' right to strike as defined by the provisions of the Labour Relations Act. The unique implications of picketing in the education environment are then discussed, covering relevant questions such as where pickets may be held, the issue of picketing rules as well as unprotected pickets. Even though we are faced with a qualified right to strike as opposed to an unqualified right to education, the South African reality seems to be that striking teachers are handled with kid gloves. It is therefore concluded that the vast range of existing laws regulating protest action should be applied more effectively. One of the most important aspects should be the picketing rules, which should clearly determine whether picketing in fact contributes to resolution of the dispute, and how learners' interests and rights may best be actualised.
Yin, J. J.; Li, S. L.; Yao, X. L.; Chang, F.; Li, L. K.; Zhang, X. H.
2016-08-01
In order to analyze the lightning strike ablation damage characteristic of composite laminate with fastener, based on the energy-balance relationship in lightning strike, mathematical analysis model of ablation damage of composite laminate with fastener was constructed. According to the model, an effective three dimensional thermal-electrical coupling analysis finite element model of composite laminate with fastener suffered from lightning current was established based on ABAQUS, and lightning strike ablation damage characteristic was analyzed. Analytical results reveal that lightning current could conduct through the thickness direction of the laminate due to the existence of metallic fastener, and then distribute to all layers, finally conducted in-the-plane of each layer, conductive ability of different layup orientations depend on potential distribution and in-the-plane electrical conductivity along potential gradient declining direction; different potential boundaries correspond to different potential distribution in each layer, and result in conductive ability of different layup orientations was changed, then caused different lightning strike ablation damage distribution. According to the investigation in this paper, we can recognize the lightning strike ablation damage characteristic of composite laminate with fastener qualitatively.
Public Servants' right to strike in Lesotho, Botswana and South Africa – A Comparative Study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tamara Cohen
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Restrictions on the rights of public officers to strike are permitted by the Constitutions of Lesotho, Botswana and South Africa, where such limitations are reasonable, necessary and justifiable in a democratic society. The limitation of this right in the context of public servants is endorsed by the ILO in the Freedom of Association Digest of Decisions and Principles which holds that "[t]he right to strike can be restricted or even prohibited in the public service or in essential services in so far as a strike there could cause serious hardship to the national community and provided that these limitations are accompanied by certain compensatory guarantees". Public officers in Lesotho are deprived of the right to join trade unions or to strike, without exception or justification. Furthermore in Lesotho no dispute resolution mechanism exists to effectively facilitate the final resolution of disputes of interest in the public sector. This paper considers whether the limitations imposed on the freedom and right to strike of public officers in Lesotho are in breach of international obligations and are reasonable and justifiable in a free and democratic society committed to the rule of law. In so doing a comparative analysis of the jurisdictions of South Africa and Botswana is undertaken. It concludes that Lesotho is in breach of its obligations as a member state of the ILO and its constitutional commitment to freedom of association and needs to be urgently addressed.
Neotectonics of a subduction/strike-slip transition: the northeastern Dominican Republic
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Winslow, M.A.; McCann, W.R.
1985-01-01
The Septentrional fault system in the northeastern Dominican Republic marks the zone where the North American-Carribean plate boundary is evolving from subduction to strike-slip motion, and where terranes appear to be forming and migrating laterally in a subduction complex/forearc region. On the Island of Hispaniola, slip vectors are oblique to the strike of the Puerto Rico trench, and oblique subduction thrusts the upper plate over normal seafloor. The offshore geology and seismicity of the northern Caribbean suggest that uplift, broad crustal warping, thrusting, and strike-slip faulting (ie. collisional tectonics) should be present in the northern part of the Dominican Republic. The high topography (>1000m), high levels of seismicity, and large earthquakes support the hypothesis of contemporary deformation in Hispaniola. In this region, the subduction regime dies out toward the west, and deformation is transferred to onshore, oblique-slip faults. As this change in tectonic style has occurred in Neogene to Recent times, we are investigating the modern evolution of a plate boundary. We have already documented: (1) the presence of a strike-slip faulting in the northeastern Dominican Republic; (2) an anomalous push-up structure; and (3) a region of numerous splay faults. In conclusion, recent seismicity suggest a wide zone of deformation and variations in interplate motions near Hispaniola. This island lies at the western limit of active underthrusting and at the eastern limit of onshore faulting, i.e., at an important transition from a subduction to strike-slip regime.
Laboratory-tutorial activities for teaching probability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael C. Wittmann
2006-08-01
Full Text Available We report on the development of students’ ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called Intuitive Quantum Physics. Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We describe a set of activities used to teach concepts of probability and probability density. Rudimentary knowledge of mechanics is needed for one activity, but otherwise the material requires no additional preparation. Extensions of the activities include relating probability density to potential energy graphs for certain “touchstone” examples. Students have difficulties learning the target concepts, such as comparing the ratio of time in a region to total time in all regions. Instead, they often focus on edge effects, pattern match to previously studied situations, reason about necessary but incomplete macroscopic elements of the system, use the gambler’s fallacy, and use expectations about ensemble results rather than expectation values to predict future events. We map the development of their thinking to provide examples of problems rather than evidence of a curriculum’s success.
Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.
Baker, Stuart G
2013-11-10
Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design. Published 2013. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
[Hunger striking in prisons: ethics and the ethical and legal aspects].
García-Guerrero, J
2013-01-01
Hunger strike is a common form of protest in prisons and is a potential cause of many types of problems, both for the prison administration and the doctors who care for prisoners who participate in one. Issues of conflict of rights and obligations involved, and how to treat people who are subject to the Administration, which in this case takes the position of guarantor, have created major controversies over doctrine. Conscientious objection and the conflict of dual loyalty of doctors working in prisons are also issues closely linked to a prison hunger strike. In this paper we review the solution given to the problem of treatment of a prison hunger strike from three perspectives: ethics, ethical and legal.
Down the needle! Should public sector nurses in South Africa have the right to strike?
Heunis, C; Pelser, A J
1997-09-01
It is often argued that because the public sector provides essential services, it is intolerable that the citizenry be denied its entitlement because of a domestic dispute between civil servants (such as nurses) and the state. In this contribution an attempt is made to unravel a number of ideological, legislative and ethical issues relating to the right of the public sector nurse to strike. Notwithstanding the merits of opposite contentions, it is argued that public sector nurses should, in fact, have the right to strike. If this right is to be legitimized, however, due consideration should be given to problems relating to nurses' labour organisation and preventative measures to ensure minimal harm to patients in the planning and in the course of strike action.
ST-segment elevation following lightning strike: case report and review of the literature.
Akın, Alper; Bilici, Meki; Demir, Fikri; Gözü Pirinççioğlu, Ayfer; Yıldırım, Ahmet
2015-01-01
Lightning strikes may cause injury to the heart, ranging from slight electrocardiographic changes to fatal damage. As heart injury is the most important cause of mortality in these patients, cardiac monitoring is crucial. Even though various ECG changes have been reported, published data on pathologic ST-segment changes is scarce. Herein, we present a seven-year old patient with ST-segment elevation following a lightning strike. There is not sufficient data regarding lightning-related myocardial ischemia. However, because of the similar effects of lightning strikes and high-voltage electric shocks, we believe myocardial injury related to lightning may be managed in the same manner as is cardiac involvement associated with electric shock.
Hinkelbein, J; Spelten, O; Wetsch, W A
2013-01-01
Up to 32.2% of patients in a burn center suffer from electrical injuries. Of these patients, 2-4% present with lightning injuries. In Germany, approximately 50 people per year are injured by a lightning strike and 3-7 fatally. Typically, people involved in outdoor activities are endangered and affected. A lightning strike usually produces significantly higher energy doses as compared to those in common electrical injuries. Therefore, injury patterns vary significantly. Especially in high voltage injuries and lightning injuries, internal injuries are of special importance. Mortality ranges between 10 and 30% after a lightning strike. Emergency medical treatment is similar to common electrical injuries. Patients with lightning injuries should be transported to a regional or supraregional trauma center. In 15% of all cases multiple people may be injured. Therefore, it is of outstanding importance to create emergency plans and evacuation plans in good time for mass gatherings endangered by possible lightning.
Practice Makes Perfect?: The Changing Civilian Toll of CIA Drone Strikes in Pakistan
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Avery Plaw
2011-12-01
Full Text Available U.S. officials have recently claimed that the CIA has sharply reduced the number of civilian casualties resulting from covert Predator and Reaper drone strikes in the Taliban-controlled agencies of Northwest Pakistan. Critics, especially in Pakistan, along with human rights NGOs have, however, questioned these claims. This article examines independent databases tracking the drone strikes and finds that there is significant support for the U.S. officials’ claims, or at least for their more moderate assertions. It also briefly reviews the explanations that have been offered for the declining civilian death toll from drone strikes. It shows that there is reason to believe that this development is the deliberate result of adjustments to CIA targeting procedures and improvements in spy networks and technology, and thus is likely to prove broadly sustainable at least for the immediate future.
Probability, arrow of time and decoherence
Bacciagaluppi, Guido
This paper relates both to the metaphysics of probability and to the physics of time asymmetry. Using the formalism of decoherent histories, it investigates whether intuitions about intrinsic time directedness that are often associated with probability can be justified in the context of no-collapse approaches to quantum mechanics. The standard (two-vector) approach to time symmetry in the decoherent histories literature is criticised, and an alternative approach is proposed, based on two decoherence conditions ('forwards' and 'backwards') within the one-vector formalism. In turn, considerations of forwards and backwards decoherence and of decoherence and recoherence suggest that a time-directed interpretation of probabilities, if adopted, should be both contingent and perspectival.
Probability analysis of nuclear power plant hazards
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kovacs, Z.
1985-01-01
The probability analysis of risk is described used for quantifying the risk of complex technological systems, especially of nuclear power plants. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous event and the significance of its consequences. The process of the analysis may be divided into the stage of power plant analysis to the point of release of harmful material into the environment (reliability analysis) and the stage of the analysis of the consequences of this release and the assessment of the risk. The sequence of operations is characterized in the individual stages. The tasks are listed which Czechoslovakia faces in the development of the probability analysis of risk, and the composition is recommended of the work team for coping with the task. (J.C.)
Ignition probabilities for Compact Ignition Tokamak designs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stotler, D.P.; Goldston, R.J.
1989-09-01
A global power balance code employing Monte Carlo techniques had been developed to study the ''probability of ignition'' and has been applied to several different configurations of the Compact Ignition Tokamak (CIT). Probability distributions for the critical physics parameters in the code were estimated using existing experimental data. This included a statistical evaluation of the uncertainty in extrapolating the energy confinement time. A substantial probability of ignition is predicted for CIT if peaked density profiles can be achieved or if one of the two higher plasma current configurations is employed. In other cases, values of the energy multiplication factor Q of order 10 are generally obtained. The Ignitor-U and ARIES designs are also examined briefly. Comparisons of our empirically based confinement assumptions with two theory-based transport models yield conflicting results. 41 refs., 11 figs
Geometric modeling in probability and statistics
Calin, Ovidiu
2014-01-01
This book covers topics of Informational Geometry, a field which deals with the differential geometric study of the manifold probability density functions. This is a field that is increasingly attracting the interest of researchers from many different areas of science, including mathematics, statistics, geometry, computer science, signal processing, physics and neuroscience. It is the authors’ hope that the present book will be a valuable reference for researchers and graduate students in one of the aforementioned fields. This textbook is a unified presentation of differential geometry and probability theory, and constitutes a text for a course directed at graduate or advanced undergraduate students interested in applications of differential geometry in probability and statistics. The book contains over 100 proposed exercises meant to help students deepen their understanding, and it is accompanied by software that is able to provide numerical computations of several information geometric objects. The reader...
Quantum Probability and Spectral Analysis of Graphs
Hora, Akihito
2007-01-01
This is the first book to comprehensively cover the quantum probabilistic approach to spectral analysis of graphs. This approach has been developed by the authors and has become an interesting research area in applied mathematics and physics. The book can be used as a concise introduction to quantum probability from an algebraic aspect. Here readers will learn several powerful methods and techniques of wide applicability, which have been recently developed under the name of quantum probability. The exercises at the end of each chapter help to deepen understanding. Among the topics discussed along the way are: quantum probability and orthogonal polynomials; asymptotic spectral theory (quantum central limit theorems) for adjacency matrices; the method of quantum decomposition; notions of independence and structure of graphs; and asymptotic representation theory of the symmetric groups.
Uncertainty relation and probability. Numerical illustration
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fujikawa, Kazuo; Umetsu, Koichiro
2011-01-01
The uncertainty relation and the probability interpretation of quantum mechanics are intrinsically connected, as is evidenced by the evaluation of standard deviations. It is thus natural to ask if one can associate a very small uncertainty product of suitably sampled events with a very small probability. We have shown elsewhere that some examples of the evasion of the uncertainty relation noted in the past are in fact understood in this way. We here numerically illustrate that a very small uncertainty product is realized if one performs a suitable sampling of measured data that occur with a very small probability. We introduce a notion of cyclic measurements. It is also shown that our analysis is consistent with the Landau-Pollak-type uncertainty relation. It is suggested that the present analysis may help reconcile the contradicting views about the 'standard quantum limit' in the detection of gravitational waves. (author)
Independent events in elementary probability theory
Csenki, Attila
2011-07-01
In Probability and Statistics taught to mathematicians as a first introduction or to a non-mathematical audience, joint independence of events is introduced by requiring that the multiplication rule is satisfied. The following statement is usually tacitly assumed to hold (and, at best, intuitively motivated): quote specific-use="indent"> If the n events E 1, E 2, … , E n are jointly independent then any two events A and B built in finitely many steps from two disjoint subsets of E 1, E 2, … , E n are also independent. The operations 'union', 'intersection' and 'complementation' are permitted only when forming the events A and B. quote>Here we examine this statement from the point of view of elementary probability theory. The approach described here is accessible also to users of probability theory and is believed to be novel.
Introduction to probability with statistical applications
Schay, Géza
2016-01-01
Now in its second edition, this textbook serves as an introduction to probability and statistics for non-mathematics majors who do not need the exhaustive detail and mathematical depth provided in more comprehensive treatments of the subject. The presentation covers the mathematical laws of random phenomena, including discrete and continuous random variables, expectation and variance, and common probability distributions such as the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. More classical examples such as Montmort's problem, the ballot problem, and Bertrand’s paradox are now included, along with applications such as the Maxwell-Boltzmann and Bose-Einstein distributions in physics. Key features in new edition: * 35 new exercises * Expanded section on the algebra of sets * Expanded chapters on probabilities to include more classical examples * New section on regression * Online instructors' manual containing solutions to all exercises
A basic course in probability theory
Bhattacharya, Rabi
2016-01-01
This text develops the necessary background in probability theory underlying diverse treatments of stochastic processes and their wide-ranging applications. In this second edition, the text has been reorganized for didactic purposes, new exercises have been added and basic theory has been expanded. General Markov dependent sequences and their convergence to equilibrium is the subject of an entirely new chapter. The introduction of conditional expectation and conditional probability very early in the text maintains the pedagogic innovation of the first edition; conditional expectation is illustrated in detail in the context of an expanded treatment of martingales, the Markov property, and the strong Markov property. Weak convergence of probabilities on metric spaces and Brownian motion are two topics to highlight. A selection of large deviation and/or concentration inequalities ranging from those of Chebyshev, Cramer–Chernoff, Bahadur–Rao, to Hoeffding have been added, with illustrative comparisons of thei...
Fixation probability on clique-based graphs
Choi, Jeong-Ok; Yu, Unjong
2018-02-01
The fixation probability of a mutant in the evolutionary dynamics of Moran process is calculated by the Monte-Carlo method on a few families of clique-based graphs. It is shown that the complete suppression of fixation can be realized with the generalized clique-wheel graph in the limit of small wheel-clique ratio and infinite size. The family of clique-star is an amplifier, and clique-arms graph changes from amplifier to suppressor as the fitness of the mutant increases. We demonstrate that the overall structure of a graph can be more important to determine the fixation probability than the degree or the heat heterogeneity. The dependence of the fixation probability on the position of the first mutant is discussed.
Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics
Briggs, William
2016-01-01
This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...
Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.
Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel
2014-02-01
Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Python for probability, statistics, and machine learning
Unpingco, José
2016-01-01
This book covers the key ideas that link probability, statistics, and machine learning illustrated using Python modules in these areas. The entire text, including all the figures and numerical results, is reproducible using the Python codes and their associated Jupyter/IPython notebooks, which are provided as supplementary downloads. The author develops key intuitions in machine learning by working meaningful examples using multiple analytical methods and Python codes, thereby connecting theoretical concepts to concrete implementations. Modern Python modules like Pandas, Sympy, and Scikit-learn are applied to simulate and visualize important machine learning concepts like the bias/variance trade-off, cross-validation, and regularization. Many abstract mathematical ideas, such as convergence in probability theory, are developed and illustrated with numerical examples. This book is suitable for anyone with an undergraduate-level exposure to probability, statistics, or machine learning and with rudimentary knowl...
Kuhman, Daniel; Melcher, Daniel; Paquette, Max R
2016-01-01
The purpose of this study was to investigate the interaction of foot strike and common speeds on sagittal plane ankle and knee joint kinetics in competitive rear foot strike (RFS) runners when running with a RFS pattern and an imposed forefoot strike (FFS) pattern. Sixteen competitive habitual male RFS runners ran at two different speeds (i.e. 8 and 6 min mile(-1)) using their habitual RFS and an imposed FFS pattern. A repeated measures analysis of variance was used to assess a potential interaction between strike pattern and speed for selected ground reaction force (GRF) variables and, sagittal plane ankle and knee kinematic and kinetic variables. No foot strike and speed interaction was observed for any of the kinetic variables. Habitual RFS yielded a greater loading rate of the vertical GRF, peak ankle dorsiflexor moment, peak knee extensor moment, peak knee eccentric extensor power, peak dorsiflexion and sagittal plane knee range of motion compared to imposed FFS. Imposed FFS yielded greater maximum vertical GRF, peak ankle plantarflexor moment, peak ankle eccentric plantarflexor power and sagittal plane ankle ROM compared to habitual RFS. Consistent with previous literature, imposed FFS in habitual RFS reduces eccentric knee extensor and ankle dorsiflexor involvement but produce greater eccentric ankle plantarflexor action compared to RFS. These acute differences between strike patterns were independent of running speeds equivalent to typical easy and hard training runs in competitive male runners. Current findings along with previous literature suggest differences in lower extremity kinetics between habitual RFS and imposed FFS running are consistent among a variety of runner populations.
Comparing coefficients of nested nonlinear probability models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kohler, Ulrich; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders
2011-01-01
In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm and Breen have developed a method for comparing the estimated coeffcients of two nested nonlinear probability models. This article describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method. The KHB-method is a general decomposi......In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm and Breen have developed a method for comparing the estimated coeffcients of two nested nonlinear probability models. This article describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method. The KHB-method is a general...
Probability of Grounding and Collision Events
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1996-01-01
To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents have to be developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences have to be analyzed and assessed.The present notes outline a method for evaluation of the probability...... of ship-ship collisions, ship-platform collisions, and ship groundings. The main benefit of the method is that it allows comparisons of various navigation routes and procedures by assessing the relative frequencies of collisions and groundings....
Duelling idiots and other probability puzzlers
Nahin, Paul J
2002-01-01
What are your chances of dying on your next flight, being called for jury duty, or winning the lottery? We all encounter probability problems in our everyday lives. In this collection of twenty-one puzzles, Paul Nahin challenges us to think creatively about the laws of probability as they apply in playful, sometimes deceptive, ways to a fascinating array of speculative situations. Games of Russian roulette, problems involving the accumulation of insects on flypaper, and strategies for determining the odds of the underdog winning the World Series all reveal intriguing dimensions to the worki
Probable Gastrointestinal Toxicity of Kombucha Tea
Srinivasan, Radhika; Smolinske, Susan; Greenbaum, David
1997-01-01
Kombucha tea is a health beverage made by incubating the Kombucha “mushroom” in tea and sugar. Although therapeutic benefits have been attributed to the drink, neither its beneficial effects nor adverse side effects have been reported widely in the scientific literature. Side effects probably related to consumption of Kombucha tea are reported in four patients. Two presented with symptoms of allergic reaction, the third with jaundice, and the fourth with nausea, vomiting, and head and neck pain. In all four, use of Kombucha tea in proximity to onset of symptoms and symptom resolution on cessation of tea drinking suggest a probable etiologic association. PMID:9346462
Lady luck the theory of probability
Weaver, Warren
1982-01-01
""Should I take my umbrella?"" ""Should I buy insurance?"" ""Which horse should I bet on?"" Every day ― in business, in love affairs, in forecasting the weather or the stock market questions arise which cannot be answered by a simple ""yes"" or ""no."" Many of these questions involve probability. Probabilistic thinking is as crucially important in ordinary affairs as it is in the most abstruse realms of science. This book is the best nontechnical introduction to probability ever written. Its author, the late Dr. Warren Weaver, was a professor of mathematics, active in the Rockefeller and Sloa
Probability groups as orbits of groups
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bhattarai, H.N.
2003-11-01
The set of double cosets of a group with respect to a subgroup and the set of orbits of a group with respect to a group of automorphisms have structures which can be studied as multigroups, hypergroups or Pasch geometries. When the subgroup or the group of automorphisms are finite, the multivalued products can be provided with some weightages forming so-called Probability Groups. It is shown in this paper that some abstract probability groups can be realized as orbit spaces of groups. (author)
Fifty challenging problems in probability with solutions
Mosteller, Frederick
1987-01-01
Can you solve the problem of ""The Unfair Subway""? Marvin gets off work at random times between 3 and 5 p.m. His mother lives uptown, his girlfriend downtown. He takes the first subway that comes in either direction and eats dinner with the one he is delivered to. His mother complains that he never comes to see her, but he says she has a 50-50 chance. He has had dinner with her twice in the last 20 working days. Explain. Marvin's adventures in probability are one of the fifty intriguing puzzles that illustrate both elementary ad advanced aspects of probability, each problem designed to chall
Bayesian estimation of core-melt probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lewis, H.W.
1984-01-01
A very simple application of the canonical Bayesian algorithm is made to the problem of estimation of the probability of core melt in a commercial power reactor. An approximation to the results of the Rasmussen study on reactor safety is used as the prior distribution, and the observation that there has been no core melt yet is used as the single experiment. The result is a substantial decrease in the mean probability of core melt--factors of 2 to 4 for reasonable choices of parameters. The purpose is to illustrate the procedure, not to argue for the decrease
Nonstationary envelope process and first excursion probability.
Yang, J.-N.
1972-01-01
The definition of stationary random envelope proposed by Cramer and Leadbetter, is extended to the envelope of nonstationary random process possessing evolutionary power spectral densities. The density function, the joint density function, the moment function, and the crossing rate of a level of the nonstationary envelope process are derived. Based on the envelope statistics, approximate solutions to the first excursion probability of nonstationary random processes are obtained. In particular, applications of the first excursion probability to the earthquake engineering problems are demonstrated in detail.
Probability densities and Lévy densities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler
For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated.......For positive Lévy processes (i.e. subordinators) formulae are derived that express the probability density or the distribution function in terms of power series in time t. The applicability of the results to finance and to turbulence is briefly indicated....
Path probabilities of continuous time random walks
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf
2014-01-01
Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman–Kac formulae. (paper)
Return probability: Exponential versus Gaussian decay
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Izrailev, F.M. [Instituto de Fisica, BUAP, Apdo. Postal J-48, 72570 Puebla (Mexico)]. E-mail: izrailev@sirio.ifuap.buap.mx; Castaneda-Mendoza, A. [Instituto de Fisica, BUAP, Apdo. Postal J-48, 72570 Puebla (Mexico)
2006-02-13
We analyze, both analytically and numerically, the time-dependence of the return probability in closed systems of interacting particles. Main attention is paid to the interplay between two regimes, one of which is characterized by the Gaussian decay of the return probability, and another one is the well-known regime of the exponential decay. Our analytical estimates are confirmed by the numerical data obtained for two models with random interaction. In view of these results, we also briefly discuss the dynamical model which was recently proposed for the implementation of a quantum computation.
Path probabilities of continuous time random walks
Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf
2014-12-01
Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman-Kac formulae.
Vådområder, flyvepladser og risiko for bird strikes
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Thomas Kjær; Hounisen, Jens Peder
2015-01-01
Rapporten udgør en opdatering af Teknisk anvisning nr. 23 fra DMU (Christensen & Hounisen 2006), omhandlende risikovurdering for bird strikes (kollisioner mellem fugle og fly) i danske lufthavne ved etablering af vådområder nær disse. Rapporten analyserer relationen mellem ændrede forekomster af...... søer og enge/moser indenfor lufthavnenes sikkerhedszoner på 13 km og forekomsten af bird strikes i perioden 2006-2013. Anbefalinger til placering og størrelse af vådområder i lufthavnenes sikkerhedszoner er opdateret på baggrund af rapportens resultater....
FD-TD numerical simulation of an entire lightning strike on the C160 aircraft
Alliot, J. C.; Grando, J.; Muller, J. D.; Ferrieres, X.
1991-01-01
Experimental transient electromagnetic field measurements were performed on a Transall C160 aircraft during in-flight lightning strikes. The data allow a test of the predictive capabilities of a three dimensional time domain finite difference code (ALICE) developed at ONERA in order to investigate lightning-aircraft interactions. Using a transfer function technique in the 3D code, it is shown that a bi-leader attached to an aircraft can be simulated by a linear model, and so the electromagnetic fields can be calculated anywhere on the vehicle. Comparison of experimental and numerical results were made for several lightning strikes. Skin current density and electromagnetic field distributions are discussed in detail.
Direct and nearby lightning strike interaction with test power distribution lines
Schoene, Jens Daniel
The interaction of direct and nearby rocket-triggered lightning with two unenergized three-phase power distribution lines of about 800 m length was studied at the International Center for Lightning Research and Testing in Florida. A horizontally-configured line was tested in 1999 and 2000, a vertically-configured line in 2001, 2002, and 2003, and a vertically-configured line with overhead ground wire in 2004. All lines were equipped with arresters and, additionally, in 2003, the vertical line had a polemounted transformer. During the 2000, 2001, and 2002 direct strike experiments, arresters frequently failed, but there was no arrester failures either during the 2003 direct strike experiment when the transformer was on the line or during the 2004 direct strike experiment when the lightning current was injected into the overhead ground wire. All line configurations except the one tested in 2004 commonly exhibited flashovers. The division of return stroke currents for the vertically-configured line was initially similar to the division on the horizontally-configured line (that is, the arresters closest to the strike point conducted the bulk of the impulsive current). After some tens of microseconds the currents in all arresters on the vertically-configured line equalized, while the close arrester currents on the horizontally-configured line still conducted significantly more current than the remote arresters. The lightning current division for direct strikes to a phase conductor is successfully modeled with the Electromagnetic Transient Program (EMTP) for the vertically-configured line and, if the residual voltage of the close arresters is reduced by 20%, successfully modeled for the horizontally-configured line. Currents on the vertically-configured line induced by nearby lightning strikes were measured and compared to results calculated using the LIOV-EMTP96 code. It was found that during a lightning strike 11 m from a grounded line pole, a significant fraction of
Research on Line Patrol Strategy of 110kV Transmission Line after Lightning Strike
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Mingjun
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Lightning faults occupy in the majority of instantaneous fault and reclosing can usually be successful, so power supply can be restored without immediate patrol in many cases. Firstly, this paper introduces the lightning fault positioning and identifying method. Then test electrical performance of insulators after lightning strike from 110kV lines. Data shows that lightning strike has little effect on the electric performance of insulator. Finally, illustrating disposal process of the 110 kV transmission line after lightning fault, certifying that the power supply reliability be ensured without line patrol.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dance, B.
1982-01-01
If a nuclear weapon were struck by a powerful lightning flash, what would happen Scientists have assembled a simulator to produce exceptionally powerful discharges to try to find the answer to this question by practical test. The Sandia facility enables the extremely powerful lightning discharges which occur only once in every hundred lightning strokes to be duplicated. A bolt is composed of a series of strokes between two clouds or between one cloud and the earth. The simulator consists of four circuits, an inductor, a resistor and a special crowbar-switch developed at Sandia. The crowbar is for accuracy in the simulation of a lightning stroke. The test data is conveyed to computers for analysis by means of fibre-optic links. The first series of tests involve the warhead for the Air-Launched Cruise Missile
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dahl, Sofia
2011-01-01
Like all music performance, percussion playing requires high control over timing and sound properties. Specific to percussionists, however, is the need to adjust the movement to different instruments with varying physical properties and tactile feedback to the player. Furthermore, the well define...
Wang, Xing M.
2009-01-01
After a brief introduction to Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), indicator operator and conditional density operator (CDO), we investigate probability spaces associated with various quantum systems: system with one observable (discrete or continuous), system with two commutative observables (independent or dependent) and a system of indistinguishable non-interacting many-particles. In each case, we derive unified expressions of conditional expectation (CE), conditional probability (CP), and ...
Gover, A. Rod; Waldron, Andrew
2017-09-01
We develop a universal distributional calculus for regulated volumes of metrics that are suitably singular along hypersurfaces. When the hypersurface is a conformal infinity we give simple integrated distribution expressions for the divergences and anomaly of the regulated volume functional valid for any choice of regulator. For closed hypersurfaces or conformally compact geometries, methods from a previously developed boundary calculus for conformally compact manifolds can be applied to give explicit holographic formulæ for the divergences and anomaly expressed as hypersurface integrals over local quantities (the method also extends to non-closed hypersurfaces). The resulting anomaly does not depend on any particular choice of regulator, while the regulator dependence of the divergences is precisely captured by these formulæ. Conformal hypersurface invariants can be studied by demanding that the singular metric obey, smoothly and formally to a suitable order, a Yamabe type problem with boundary data along the conformal infinity. We prove that the volume anomaly for these singular Yamabe solutions is a conformally invariant integral of a local Q-curvature that generalizes the Branson Q-curvature by including data of the embedding. In each dimension this canonically defines a higher dimensional generalization of the Willmore energy/rigid string action. Recently, Graham proved that the first variation of the volume anomaly recovers the density obstructing smooth solutions to this singular Yamabe problem; we give a new proof of this result employing our boundary calculus. Physical applications of our results include studies of quantum corrections to entanglement entropies.
Fluctuations of trading volume in a stock market
Hong, Byoung Hee; Lee, Kyoung Eun; Hwang, Jun Kyung; Lee, Jae Woo
2009-03-01
We consider the probability distribution function of the trading volume and the volume changes in the Korean stock market. The probability distribution function of the trading volume shows double peaks and follows a power law, P(V/)∼( at the tail part of the distribution with α=4.15(4) for the KOSPI (Korea composite Stock Price Index) and α=4.22(2) for the KOSDAQ (Korea Securities Dealers Automated Quotations), where V is the trading volume and is the monthly average value of the trading volume. The second peaks originate from the increasing trends of the average volume. The probability distribution function of the volume changes also follows a power law, P(Vr)∼Vr-β, where Vr=V(t)-V(t-T) and T is a time lag. The exponents β depend on the time lag T. We observe that the exponents β for the KOSDAQ are larger than those for the KOSPI.
Sparse PDF Volumes for Consistent Multi-Resolution Volume Rendering
Sicat, Ronell Barrera
2014-12-31
This paper presents a new multi-resolution volume representation called sparse pdf volumes, which enables consistent multi-resolution volume rendering based on probability density functions (pdfs) of voxel neighborhoods. These pdfs are defined in the 4D domain jointly comprising the 3D volume and its 1D intensity range. Crucially, the computation of sparse pdf volumes exploits data coherence in 4D, resulting in a sparse representation with surprisingly low storage requirements. At run time, we dynamically apply transfer functions to the pdfs using simple and fast convolutions. Whereas standard low-pass filtering and down-sampling incur visible differences between resolution levels, the use of pdfs facilitates consistent results independent of the resolution level used. We describe the efficient out-of-core computation of large-scale sparse pdf volumes, using a novel iterative simplification procedure of a mixture of 4D Gaussians. Finally, our data structure is optimized to facilitate interactive multi-resolution volume rendering on GPUs.
Conditional probability on MV-algebras
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kroupa, Tomáš
2005-01-01
Roč. 149, č. 2 (2005), s. 369-381 ISSN 0165-0114 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA2075302 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : conditional probability * tribe * MV-algebra Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.039, year: 2005
Failure probability of regional flood defences
Lendering, K.T.; lang, M.; Klijn, F.; Samuels, P.
2016-01-01
Polders in the Netherlands are protected from flooding by primary and regional flood defence systems. During the last decade, scientific research in flood risk focused on the development of a probabilistic approach to quantify the probability of flooding of the primary flood defence system. This
Virus isolation: Specimen type and probable transmission
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Virus isolation: Specimen type and probable transmission. Over 500 CHIK virus isolations were made. 4 from male Ae. Aegypti (?TOT). 6 from CSF (neurological involvement). 1 from a 4-day old child (transplacental transmission.
Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions on Continuous Variables
1975-08-01
STATEMENT (3l Ihl» Riporl) Approved for Public Release; Distribiition Unlimited vT u.VH SUTiON STATEMENT (ol in, motif el oofnd In Block 20, II...Adjusting Proper Scoring Rule Fractile Subjective Probability Uncertainty Measures ZO. ABSTRACT (Conllnuo an r«v*r*« oido H nocoomtry and
Collision probabilities and response matrices: an overview
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Leonard, A.
1975-01-01
Generally the term collision probability method is applied to a technique that employs a discretization of the integral form of the transport equation. Relative to the discrete ordinates method, the collision probability technique has the advantages of dealing with fewer number of variables (no angular coordinates) and generally faster convergence. Significant disadvantages include dense coupling of the variables, expensive precalculation of collision probabilities, and difficulties in treating anisotropic scattering. Various techniques for circumventing these weaknesses are described. In the response matrix method the assembly or system to be analyzed is decomposed into a number of simple subunits. The approximate Green's functions or response matrices of each type of subunit are then precalculated. To the desired accuracy, these response matrices yield the outgoing neutron currents to any given input. Thus the unknowns are the interface currents, and the coefficient matrix contains all the response matrices. A wide variety of techniques can and have been used to generate response matrices--diffusion theory, S/sub n/ methods, Monte Carlo, collision probabilities, and even response matrices. Again the precalculations are expensive. On the other hand once a response matrix has been computed, it may be stored and used again. Thus response matrix methods appear to be particularly advantageous for burnup, optimization, and possibly many kinetics problems where the properties of many subunits do not change. (43 references) (U.S.)
Complexity of Fuzzy Probability Logics II
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Hájek, Petr
2007-01-01
Roč. 158, č. 23 (2007), s. 2605-2611 ISSN 0165-0114 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100300503 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : fuzzy logic * probability * computational complexity Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.373, year: 2007
Inferring Beliefs as Subjectively Imprecise Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.
2012-01-01
We propose a method for estimating subjective beliefs, viewed as a subjective probability distribution. The key insight is to characterize beliefs as a parameter to be estimated from observed choices in a well-defined experimental task and to estimate that parameter as a random coefficient. The e...
Probability & Perception: The Representativeness Heuristic in Action
Lu, Yun; Vasko, Francis J.; Drummond, Trevor J.; Vasko, Lisa E.
2014-01-01
If the prospective students of probability lack a background in mathematical proofs, hands-on classroom activities may work well to help them to learn to analyze problems correctly. For example, students may physically roll a die twice to count and compare the frequency of the sequences. Tools such as graphing calculators or Microsoft Excel®…
Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Student Edition
Actuarial Foundation, 2012
2012-01-01
The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The materials are centered on the fictional town of Happy Shores, a coastal community which is at risk for hurricanes. Actuaries at an insurance company figure out the risks and…
Low Probability of Intercept Laser Range Finder
2017-07-19
performs the signal processing . Processor 30 performs a continuous sweep over the photodetector 38 output to isolate and amplify the optical signals ...December 2017 The below identified patent application is available for licensing. Requests for information should be addressed to...1 of 12 LOW PROBABILITY OF INTERCEPT LASER RANGE FINDER STATEMENT OF GOVERNMENT INTEREST [0001] The invention described herein may be
Estimating the Probability of Negative Events
Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam; Hahn, Ulrike
2009-01-01
How well we are attuned to the statistics of our environment is a fundamental question in understanding human behaviour. It seems particularly important to be able to provide accurate assessments of the probability with which negative events occur so as to guide rational choice of preventative actions. One question that arises here is whether or…
Pade approximant calculations for neutron escape probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El Wakil, S.A.; Saad, E.A.; Hendi, A.A.
1984-07-01
The neutron escape probability from a non-multiplying slab containing internal source is defined in terms of a functional relation for the scattering function for the diffuse reflection problem. The Pade approximant technique is used to get numerical results which compare with exact results. (author)
Concurrency meets probability: theory and practice (abstract)
Katoen, Joost P.
Treating random phenomena in concurrency theory has a long tradition. Petri nets [18, 10] and process algebras [14] have been extended with probabilities. The same applies to behavioural semantics such as strong and weak (bi)simulation [1], and testing pre-orders [5]. Beautiful connections between
Probability & Statistics: Modular Learning Exercises. Teacher Edition
Actuarial Foundation, 2012
2012-01-01
The purpose of these modules is to provide an introduction to the world of probability and statistics to accelerated mathematics students at the high school level. The modules also introduce students to real world math concepts and problems that property and casualty actuaries come across in their work. They are designed to be used by teachers and…
Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.
Quinn, Robert J.
1997-01-01
Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…
Escape probabilities for fluorescent x-rays
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dance, D.R.; Day, G.J.
1985-01-01
Computation of the energy absorption efficiency of an x-ray photon detector involves consideration of the histories of the secondary particles produced in any initial or secondary interaction which may occur within the detector. In particular, the K or higher shell fluorescent x-rays which may be emitted following a photoelectric interaction can carry away a large fraction of the energy of the incident photon, especially if this energy is just above an absorption edge. The effects of such photons cannot be ignored and a correction term, depending upon the probability that the fluorescent x-rays will escape from the detector, must be applied to the energy absorption efficiency. For detectors such as x-ray intensifying screens, it has been usual to calculate this probability by numerical integration. In this note analytic expressions are derived for the escape probability of fluorescent photons from planar detectors in terms of exponential integral functions. Rational approximations for these functions are readily available and these analytic expressions therefore facilitate the computation of photon absorption efficiencies. A table is presented which should obviate the need for calculating the escape probability for most cases of interest. (author)
On a paradox of probability theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stuart, C.I.J.M.
1989-01-01
Costa de Beauregard's proposal concerning physical retrocausality has been shown to fail on two crucial points. However, it is argued that his proposal still merits serious attention. The argument arises from showing that his proposal reveals a paradox involving relations between conditional probabilities, statistical correlations and reciprocal causalities of the type exhibited by cooperative dynamics in physical systems. 4 refs. (Author)
Exploring Concepts in Probability: Using Graphics Calculators
Ghosh, Jonaki
2004-01-01
This article describes a project in which certain key concepts in probability were explored using graphics calculators with year 10 students. The lessons were conducted in the regular classroom where students were provided with a Casio CFX 9850 GB PLUS graphics calculator with which they were familiar from year 9. The participants in the…
Probability from a Socio-Cultural Perspective
Sharma, Sashi
2016-01-01
There exists considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions about probability; less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. Grounded in an analysis of the literature, this article offers a lesson sequence for developing students' probabilistic understanding. In particular, a…