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Sample records for strike probabilities volume

  1. An evaluation method for tornado missile strike probability with stochastic correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eguchi, Yuzuru; Murakami, Takahiro; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo

    2017-01-01

    An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure

  2. An evaluation method for tornado missile strike probability with stochastic correction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eguchi, Yuzuru; Murakami, Takahiro; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru; Sugimoto, Soichiro; Hattori, Yasuo [Nuclear Risk Research Center (External Natural Event Research Team), Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko (Japan)

    2017-03-15

    An efficient evaluation method for the probability of a tornado missile strike without using the Monte Carlo method is proposed in this paper. A major part of the proposed probability evaluation is based on numerical results computed using an in-house code, Tornado-borne missile analysis code, which enables us to evaluate the liftoff and flight behaviors of unconstrained objects on the ground driven by a tornado. Using the Tornado-borne missile analysis code, we can obtain a stochastic correlation between local wind speed and flight distance of each object, and this stochastic correlation is used to evaluate the conditional strike probability, QV(r), of a missile located at position r, where the local wind speed is V. In contrast, the annual exceedance probability of local wind speed, which can be computed using a tornado hazard analysis code, is used to derive the probability density function, p(V). Then, we finally obtain the annual probability of tornado missile strike on a structure with the convolutional integration of product of QV(r) and p(V) over V. The evaluation method is applied to a simple problem to qualitatively confirm the validity, and to quantitatively verify the results for two extreme cases in which an object is located just in the vicinity of or far away from the structure.

  3. Effects of track and threat information on judgments of hurricane strike probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hao-Che; Lindell, Michael K; Prater, Carla S; Samuelson, Charles D

    2014-06-01

    Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone-a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. The lightning striking probability for offshore wind turbine blade with salt fog contamination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qingmin; Ma, Yufei; Guo, Zixin; Ren, Hanwen; Wang, Guozheng; Arif, Waqas; Fang, Zhiyang; Siew, Wah Hoon

    2017-08-01

    The blades of an offshore wind turbine are prone to be adhered with salt fog after long-time exposure in the marine-atmosphere environment, and salt fog reduces the efficiency of the lightning protection system. In order to study the influence of salt fog on lightning striking probability (LSP), the lightning discharge process model for the wind turbine blade is adopted in this paper considering the accumulation mechanism of surface charges around the salt fog area. The distribution of potential and electric field with the development of the downward leader is calculated by COMSOL Multiphysics LiveLink for MATLAB. A quantitative characterization method is established to calculate the LSP base on the average electric field before the return stroke and the LSP distribution of the blade is shown in the form of a graphic view. The simulation results indicate that the receptor and conductor area close to the receptor area are more likely to get struck by lightning, and the LSP increases under the influence of salt fog. The validity of the model is verified by experiments. Furthermore, the receptor can protect the blade from lightning strikes effectively when the lateral distance between the rod electrode and receptor is short. The influence of salt fog on LSP is more obvious if salt fog is close to the receptor or if the scope of salt fog area increases.

  5. Informing a Tidal Turbine Strike Probability Model through Characterization of Fish Behavioral Response using Multibeam Sonar Output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bevelhimer, Mark S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division; Colby, Jonathan [Verdant Power, Inc., New York, NY (United States); Adonizio, Mary Ann [Verdant Power, Inc., New York, NY (United States); Tomichek, Christine [Kleinschmidt Associates, Pittsfield, ME (United States); Scherelis, Constantin C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

    2016-07-31

    One of the most important biological questions facing the marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy industry is whether fish and marine mammals that encounter MHK devices are likely to be struck by moving components. For hydrokinetic (HK) devices, i.e., those that generate energy from flowing water, this concern is greatest for large organisms because their increased length increases the probability that they will be struck as they pass through the area of blade sweep and because their increased mass means that the force absorbed if struck is greater and potentially more damaging (Amaral et al. 2015). Key to answering this question is understanding whether aquatic organisms change their swimming behavior as they encounter a device in a way that decreases their likelihood of being struck and possibly injured by the device. Whether near-field or far-field behavior results in general avoidance of or attraction to HK devices is a significant factor in the possible risk of physical contact with rotating turbine blades (Cada and Bevelhimer 2011).

  6. Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, A N

    1996-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study This new edition contains substantial revisions and updated references The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added The author included new material on the probability of large deviations, and on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables

  7. Optimization of radiation therapy, III: a method of assessing complication probabilities from dose-volume histograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyman, J.T.; Wolbarst, A.B.

    1987-01-01

    To predict the likelihood of success of a therapeutic strategy, one must be able to assess the effects of the treatment upon both diseased and healthy tissues. This paper proposes a method for determining the probability that a healthy organ that receives a non-uniform distribution of X-irradiation, heat, chemotherapy, or other agent will escape complications. Starting with any given dose distribution, a dose-cumulative-volume histogram for the organ is generated. This is then reduced by an interpolation scheme (involving the volume-weighting of complication probabilities) to a slightly different histogram that corresponds to the same overall likelihood of complications, but which contains one less step. The procedure is repeated, one step at a time, until there remains a final, single-step histogram, for which the complication probability can be determined. The formalism makes use of a complication response function C(D, V) which, for the given treatment schedule, represents the probability of complications arising when the fraction V of the organ receives dose D and the rest of the organ gets none. Although the data required to generate this function are sparse at present, it should be possible to obtain the necessary information from in vivo and clinical studies. Volume effects are taken explicitly into account in two ways: the precise shape of the patient's histogram is employed in the calculation, and the complication response function is a function of the volume

  8. Linking probabilities of off-lattice self-avoiding polygons and the effects of excluded volume

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirayama, Naomi; Deguchi, Tetsuo; Tsurusaki, Kyoichi

    2009-01-01

    We evaluate numerically the probability of linking, i.e. the probability of a given pair of self-avoiding polygons (SAPs) being entangled and forming a nontrivial link type L. In the simulation we generate pairs of SAPs of N spherical segments of radius r d such that they have no overlaps among the segments and each of the SAPs has the trivial knot type. We evaluate the probability of a self-avoiding pair of SAPs forming a given link type L for various link types with fixed distance R between the centers of mass of the two SAPs. We define normalized distance r by r=R/R g,0 1 where R g,0 1 denotes the square root of the mean square radius of gyration of SAP of the trivial knot 0 1 . We introduce formulae expressing the linking probability as a function of normalized distance r, which gives good fitting curves with respect to χ 2 values. We also investigate the dependence of linking probabilities on the excluded-volume parameter r d and the number of segments, N. Quite interestingly, the graph of linking probability versus normalized distance r shows no N-dependence at a particular value of the excluded volume parameter, r d = 0.2

  9. Hidden measurements, hidden variables and the volume representation of transition probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Oliynyk, Todd A.

    2005-01-01

    We construct, for any finite dimension $n$, a new hidden measurement model for quantum mechanics based on representing quantum transition probabilities by the volume of regions in projective Hilbert space. For $n=2$ our model is equivalent to the Aerts sphere model and serves as a generalization of it for dimensions $n \\geq 3$. We also show how to construct a hidden variables scheme based on hidden measurements and we discuss how joint distributions arise in our hidden variables scheme and th...

  10. Striking Clepsydras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Moon-Hyon

    The term "Striking Clepsydra" is a shortened translation of the Korean name Jagyeongnu (自擊漏, tzu-chi lou in Chinese, literally "automatic-striking water-clock"). It was given to the two monumental time-keeping installations built by chief court engineer Yeong-sil Jang in AD 1432-38 under King Sejong (r. AD 1418-50) of the Joseon dynasty (1392-1910) in Seoul. These were housed separately in the Gyeongbok palace complex as major installations of the Royal Observatory Ganuidae equipped during 1432-38. One was the Striking Palace Clepsydra Borugangnu that was employed as the standard time-keeper from 1434, and the other was the Striking Heavenly Clepsydra Heumgyeonggangnu that was put into use not only as the symbol of Neo-Confucian ideology from 1438, but also as a demonstrational orrery and time-keeper. These were restored several times through the dynasty after loss by fires and warfare, and clepsydra-making technologies were succeeded by the development of armillary clocks in 1669. The National Palace Museum of Korea recreated the 1434 Striking Palace Clepsydra of King Sejong, and the replica was installed for permanent exhibition from November 2007.

  11. Evaluation of the effect of prostate volume change on tumor control probability in LDR brachytherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaup, Courtney; Mavroidis, Panayiotis; Stathakis, Sotirios; Smith, Mark; Swanson, Gregory; Papanikolaou, Niko

    2011-09-01

    This study evaluates low dose-rate brachytherapy (LDR) prostate plans to determine the biological effect of dose degradation due to prostate volume changes. In this study, 39 patients were evaluated. Pre-implant prostate volume was determined using ultrasound. These images were used with the treatment planning system (Nucletron Spot Pro 3.1(®)) to create treatment plans using (103)Pd seeds. Following the implant, patients were imaged using CT for post-implant dosimetry. From the pre and post-implant DVHs, the biologically equivalent dose and the tumor control probability (TCP) were determined using the biologically effective uniform dose. The model used RBE = 1.75 and α/β = 2 Gy. The prostate volume changed between pre and post implant image sets ranged from -8% to 110%. TCP and the mean dose were reduced up to 21% and 56%, respectively. TCP is observed to decrease as the mean dose decreases to the prostate. The post-implant tumor dose was generally observed to decrease, compared to the planned dose. A critical uniform dose of 130 Gy was established. Below this dose, TCP begins to fall-off. It was also determined that patients with a small prostates were more likely to suffer TCP decrease. The biological effect of post operative prostate growth due to operative trauma in LDR was evaluated using the concept. The post-implant dose was lower than the planned dose due to an increase of prostate volume post-implant. A critical uniform dose of 130 Gy was determined, below which TCP begun to decline.

  12. Calculation of complication probability of pion treatment at PSI using dose-volume histograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Keiichi; Akanuma, Atsuo; Aoki, Yukimasa

    1991-01-01

    In the conformation technique a target volume is irradiated uniformly as in conventional radiations, whereas surrounding tissue and organs are nonuniformly irradiated. Clinical data on radiation injuries that accumulate with conventional radiation are not applicable without appropriate compensation. Recently a putative solution of this problem was proposed by Lyman using dose-volume histograms. This histogram reduction method reduces a given dose-volume histogram of an organ to a single step which corresponds to the equivalent complication probability by interpolation. As a result it converts nonuniform radiation into a unique dose to the whole organ which has the equivalent likelihood of radiation injury. This method is based on low LET radiation with conventional fractionation schedules. When it is applied to high LET radiation such as negative pion treatment, a high LET dose should be converted to an equivalent photon dose using an appropriate value of RBE. In the present study the histogram reduction method was applied to actual patients treated by the negative pion conformation technique at the Paul Scherrer Institute. Out of evaluable 90 cases of pelvic tumors, 16 developed grade III-IV bladder injury, and 7 developed grade III-IV rectal injury. The 90 cases were divided into roughly equal groups according to the equivalent doses to the entire bladder and rectum. Complication rates and equivalent doses to the full organs in these groups could be represented by a sigmoid dose-effect relation. When RBE from a pion dose to a photon dose is assumed to be 2.1 for bladder injury, the rates of bladder complications fit best to the theoretical complication curve. When the RBE value was 2.3, the rates of rectal injury fit the theoretical curve best. These values are close to the conversion factor of 2.0 that is used in clinical practice at PSI. This agreement suggests the clinical feasibility of the histogram reduction method in conformation radiotherapy. (author)

  13. Evaluation of the effect of prostate volume change on tumor control probability in LDR brachytherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney Knaup

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study evaluates low dose-rate brachytherapy (LDR prostate plans to determine the biological effectof dose degradation due to prostate volume changes. Material and methods: In this study, 39 patients were evaluated. Pre-implant prostate volume was determinedusing ultrasound. These images were used with the treatment planning system (Nucletron Spot Pro 3.1® to create treatmentplans using 103Pd seeds. Following the implant, patients were imaged using CT for post-implant dosimetry. Fromthe pre and post-implant DVHs, the biologically equivalent dose and the tumor control probability (TCP were determinedusing the biologically effective uniform dose. The model used RBE = 1.75 and α/β = 2 Gy. Results: The prostate volume changed between pre and post implant image sets ranged from –8% to 110%. TCP andthe mean dose were reduced up to 21% and 56%, respectively. TCP is observed to decrease as the mean dose decreasesto the prostate. The post-implant tumor dose was generally observed to decrease, compared to the planned dose.A critical uniform dose of 130 Gy was established. Below this dose, TCP begins to fall-off. It was also determined thatpatients with a small prostates were more likely to suffer TCP decrease. Conclusions: The biological effect of post operative prostate growth due to operative trauma in LDR was evaluatedusing the concept. The post-implant dose was lower than the planned dose due to an increase of prostate volumepost-implant. A critical uniform dose of 130 Gy was determined, below which TCP begun to decline.

  14. Calculation of normal tissue complication probability and dose-volume histogram reduction schemes for tissues with a critical element architecture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemierko, Andrzej; Goitein, Michael

    1991-01-01

    The authors investigate a model of normal tissue complication probability for tissues that may be represented by a critical element architecture. They derive formulas for complication probability that apply to both a partial volume irradiation and to an arbitrary inhomogeneous dose distribution. The dose-volume isoeffect relationship which is a consequence of a critical element architecture is discussed and compared to the empirical power law relationship. A dose-volume histogram reduction scheme for a 'pure' critical element model is derived. In addition, a point-based algorithm which does not require precomputation of a dose-volume histogram is derived. The existing published dose-volume histogram reduction algorithms are analyzed. The authors show that the existing algorithms, developed empirically without an explicit biophysical model, have a close relationship to the critical element model at low levels of complication probability. However, it is also showed that they have aspects which are not compatible with a critical element model and the authors propose a modification to one of them to circumvent its restriction to low complication probabilities. (author). 26 refs.; 7 figs

  15. Parameter Analysis of the VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed Trading) Metric

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Jung Heon; Wu, Kesheng; Simon, Horst D.

    2014-03-01

    VPIN (Volume synchronized Probability of Informed trading) is a leading indicator of liquidity-induced volatility. It is best known for having produced a signal more than hours before the Flash Crash of 2010. On that day, the market saw the biggest one-day point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which culminated to the market value of $1 trillion disappearing, but only to recover those losses twenty minutes later (Lauricella 2010). The computation of VPIN requires the user to set up a handful of free parameters. The values of these parameters significantly affect the effectiveness of VPIN as measured by the false positive rate (FPR). An earlier publication reported that a brute-force search of simple parameter combinations yielded a number of parameter combinations with FPR of 7%. This work is a systematic attempt to find an optimal parameter set using an optimization package, NOMAD (Nonlinear Optimization by Mesh Adaptive Direct Search) by Audet, le digabel, and tribes (2009) and le digabel (2011). We have implemented a number of techniques to reduce the computation time with NOMAD. Tests show that we can reduce the FPR to only 2%. To better understand the parameter choices, we have conducted a series of sensitivity analysis via uncertainty quantification on the parameter spaces using UQTK (Uncertainty Quantification Toolkit). Results have shown dominance of 2 parameters in the computation of FPR. Using the outputs from NOMAD optimization and sensitivity analysis, We recommend A range of values for each of the free parameters that perform well on a large set of futures trading records.

  16. MR-based automatic delineation of volumes of interest in human brain PET images using probability maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svarer, Claus; Madsen, Karina; Hasselbalch, Steen G.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an observer-independent approach for automatic generation of volume-of-interest (VOI) brain templates to be used in emission tomography studies of the brain. The method utilizes a VOI probability map created on the basis of a database of several...... delineation of the VOI set. The approach was also shown to work equally well in individuals with pronounced cerebral atrophy. Probability-map-based automatic delineation of VOIs is a fast, objective, reproducible, and safe way to assess regional brain values from PET or SPECT scans. In addition, the method...

  17. Normal tissue complication probabilities: dependence on choice of biological model and dose-volume histogram reduction scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moiseenko, Vitali; Battista, Jerry; Van Dyk, Jake

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the impact of dose-volume histogram (DVH) reduction schemes and models of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) on ranking of radiation treatment plans. Methods and Materials: Data for liver complications in humans and for spinal cord in rats were used to derive input parameters of four different NTCP models. DVH reduction was performed using two schemes: 'effective volume' and 'preferred Lyman'. DVHs for competing treatment plans were derived from a sample DVH by varying dose uniformity in a high dose region so that the obtained cumulative DVHs intersected. Treatment plans were ranked according to the calculated NTCP values. Results: Whenever the preferred Lyman scheme was used to reduce the DVH, competing plans were indistinguishable as long as the mean dose was constant. The effective volume DVH reduction scheme did allow us to distinguish between these competing treatment plans. However, plan ranking depended on the radiobiological model used and its input parameters. Conclusions: Dose escalation will be a significant part of radiation treatment planning using new technologies, such as 3-D conformal radiotherapy and tomotherapy. Such dose escalation will depend on how the dose distributions in organs at risk are interpreted in terms of expected complication probabilities. The present study indicates considerable variability in predicted NTCP values because of the methods used for DVH reduction and radiobiological models and their input parameters. Animal studies and collection of standardized clinical data are needed to ascertain the effects of non-uniform dose distributions and to test the validity of the models currently in use

  18. Cerebral gray matter volume losses in essential tremor: A case-control study using high resolution tissue probability maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Eric; Dyke, Jonathan P; Hernandez, Nora; Louis, Elan D; Dydak, Ulrike

    2018-03-10

    Essential tremor (ET) is increasingly recognized as a multi-dimensional disorder with both motor and non-motor features. For this reason, imaging studies are more broadly examining regions outside the cerebellar motor loop. Reliable detection of cerebral gray matter (GM) atrophy requires optimized processing, adapted to high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). We investigated cerebral GM volume loss in ET cases using automated segmentation of MRI T1-weighted images. MRI was acquired on 47 ET cases and 36 controls. Automated segmentation and voxel-wise comparisons of volume were performed using Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software. To improve upon standard protocols, the high-resolution International Consortium for Brain Mapping (ICBM) 2009a atlas and tissue probability maps were used to process each subject image. Group comparisons were performed: all ET vs. Controls, ET with head tremor (ETH) vs. Controls, and severe ET vs. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed between ET with and without head tremor and controls. Age, sex, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score were regressed out from each comparison. We were able to consistently identify regions of cerebral GM volume loss in ET and in ET subgroups in the posterior insula, superior temporal gyri, cingulate cortex, inferior frontal gyri and other occipital and parietal regions. There were no significant increases in GM volume in ET in any comparisons with controls. This study, which uses improved methodologies, provides evidence that GM volume loss in ET is present beyond the cerebellum, and in fact, is widespread throughout the cerebrum as well. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Lightning Often Strikes Twice

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    Contrary to popular misconception, lightning often strikes the same place twice. Certain conditions are just ripe for a bolt of electricity to come zapping down; and a lightning strike is powerful enough to do a lot of damage wherever it hits. NASA created the Accurate Location of Lightning Strikes technology to determine the ground strike point of lightning and prevent electrical damage in the immediate vicinity of the Space Shuttle launch pads at Kennedy Space Center. The area surrounding the launch pads is enmeshed in a network of electrical wires and components, and electronic equipment is highly susceptible to lightning strike damage. The accurate knowledge of the striking point is important so that crews can determine which equipment or system needs to be retested following a strike. Accurate to within a few yards, this technology can locate a lightning strike in the perimeter of the launch pad. As an added bonus, the engineers, then knowing where the lightning struck, can adjust the variables that may be attracting the lightning, to create a zone that will be less susceptible to future strikes.

  20. Probability-1

    CERN Document Server

    Shiryaev, Albert N

    2016-01-01

    This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.

  1. SLIM-MAUD: an approach to assessing human error probabilities using structured expert judgment. Volume II. Detailed analysis of the technical issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Humphreys, P.; Rosa, E.A.; Kirwan, B.; Rea, K.

    1984-07-01

    This two-volume report presents the procedures and analyses performed in developing an approach for structuring expert judgments to estimate human error probabilities. Volume I presents an overview of work performed in developing the approach: SLIM-MAUD (Success Likelihood Index Methodology, implemented through the use of an interactive computer program called MAUD-Multi-Attribute Utility Decomposition). Volume II provides a more detailed analysis of the technical issues underlying the approach

  2. Options with Extreme Strikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingjiong Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this short paper, we study the asymptotics for the price of call options for very large strikes and put options for very small strikes. The stock price is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes models. We analyze European, Asian, American, Parisian and perpetual options and conclude that the tail asymptotics for these option types fall into four scenarios.

  3. Probability of pipe fracture in the primary coolant loop of a PWR plant. Volume 3: nonseismic stress analysis. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, A.L.; Curtis, D.J.; Rybicki, E.F.; Lu, S.C.

    1981-08-01

    This volume describes the analyses used to evaluate stresses due to loads other than seismic excitations in the primary coolant loop piping of a selected four-loop pressurized water reactor nuclear power station. The results of the analyses are used as input to a simulation procedure for predicting the probability of pipe fracture in the primary coolant system. Sources of stresses considered in the analyses are pressure, dead weight, thermal expansion, thermal gradients through the pipe wall, residual welding, and mechanical vibrations. Pressure and thermal transients arising from plant operations are best estimates and are based on actual plant operation records supplemented by specified plant design conditions. Stresses due to dead weight and thermal expansion are computed from a three-dimensional finite element model that uses a combination of pipe, truss, and beam elements to represent the reactor coolant loop piping, reactor pressure vessel, reactor coolant pumps, steam generators, and the pressurizer. Stresses due to pressure and thermal gradients are obtained by closed-form solutions. Calculations of residual stresses account for the actual heat impact, welding speed, weld preparation geometry, and pre- and post-heat treatments. Vibrational stresses due to pump operation are estimated by a dynamic analysis using existing measurements of pump vibrations

  4. Methods for Reducing Normal Tissue Complication Probabilities in Oropharyngeal Cancer: Dose Reduction or Planning Target Volume Elimination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samuels, Stuart E.; Eisbruch, Avraham; Vineberg, Karen; Lee, Jae; Lee, Choonik; Matuszak, Martha M.; Ten Haken, Randall K.; Brock, Kristy K., E-mail: kbrock@med.umich.edu

    2016-11-01

    Purpose: Strategies to reduce the toxicities of head and neck radiation (ie, dysphagia [difficulty swallowing] and xerostomia [dry mouth]) are currently underway. However, the predicted benefit of dose and planning target volume (PTV) reduction strategies is unknown. The purpose of the present study was to compare the normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for swallowing and salivary structures in standard plans (70 Gy [P70]), dose-reduced plans (60 Gy [P60]), and plans eliminating the PTV margin. Methods and Materials: A total of 38 oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) plans were analyzed. Standard organ-sparing volumetric modulated arc therapy plans (P70) were created and then modified by eliminating the PTVs and treating the clinical tumor volumes (CTVs) only (C70) or maintaining the PTV but reducing the dose to 60 Gy (P60). NTCP dose models for the pharyngeal constrictors, glottis/supraglottic larynx, parotid glands (PGs), and submandibular glands (SMGs) were analyzed. The minimal clinically important benefit was defined as a mean change in NTCP of >5%. The P70 NTCP thresholds and overlap percentages of the organs at risk with the PTVs (56-59 Gy, vPTV{sub 56}) were evaluated to identify the predictors for NTCP improvement. Results: With the P60 plans, only the ipsilateral PG (iPG) benefited (23.9% vs 16.2%; P<.01). With the C70 plans, only the iPG (23.9% vs 17.5%; P<.01) and contralateral SMG (cSMG) (NTCP 32.1% vs 22.9%; P<.01) benefited. An iPG NTCP threshold of 20% and 30% predicted NTCP benefits for the P60 and C70 plans, respectively (P<.001). A cSMG NTCP threshold of 30% predicted for an NTCP benefit with the C70 plans (P<.001). Furthermore, for the iPG, a vPTV{sub 56} >13% predicted benefit with P60 (P<.001) and C70 (P=.002). For the cSMG, a vPTV{sub 56} >22% predicted benefit with C70 (P<.01). Conclusions: PTV elimination and dose-reduction lowered the NTCP of the iPG, and PTV elimination lowered the NTCP of the cSMG. NTCP thresholds and the

  5. Probability of Detection (POD) Analysis for the Advanced Retirement for Cause (RFC)/Engine Structural Integrity Program (ENSIP) Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) System-Volume 3: Material Correlation Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berens, Alan

    2000-01-01

    .... Volume 1 presents a description of changes made to the probability of detection (POD) analysis program of Mil-STD-1823 and the statistical evaluation of modifications that were made to version 3 of the Eddy Current Inspection System (ECIS v3...

  6. Algab õppus "Saber Strike"

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2014-01-01

    Täna algab Eestis, Lätis ja Leedus Ameerika Ühendriikide Euroopa väekoondise õppus "Saber Strike", mille eesmärk on maaväeüksuste koostöö harjutamine. Õppusest võtab osa üle 2000 kaitseväelase Baltimaadest, USAst, Ühendkuningriigist, Taanist, Norrast, Soomest ja Saksamaalt. Eestist osaleb õppusel ligi 400 kaitseväelast

  7. The Poster Strikes Back

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Line Hjorth

    2005-01-01

    The paper discusses fundamental issues in relation to placing graphic design in locations such as museums of decorative arts and living history museums. Based on my Ph.D. project on British commercial posters of the interwar years and approached from a combined perspective of museology, semiotics...... and design history, I argue that the poster during the interwar years inhabits a new active position. By exploiting and challenging the commercial and aesthetic paradox out of which it arose, the poster ‘strikes back' as a museologized, exhibited object. Rather than being absorbed into the city swirl...

  8. Global strike hypersonic weapons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Mark J.

    2017-11-01

    Beginning in the 1940's, the United States has pursued the development of hypersonic technologies, enabling atmospheric flight in excess of five times the speed of sound. Hypersonic flight has application to a range of military and civilian applications, including commercial transport, space access, and various weapons and sensing platforms. A number of flight tests of hypersonic vehicles have been conducted by countries around the world, including the United States, Russia, and China, that could lead the way to future hypersonic global strike weapon systems. These weapons would be especially effective at penetrating conventional defenses, and could pose a significant risk to national security.

  9. Preventive strike vs. false targets and protection in defense strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitin, Gregory; Hausken, Kjell

    2011-01-01

    A defender allocates its resource between defending an object passively and striking preventively against an attacker seeking to destroy the object. With no preventive strike the defender distributes its entire resource between deploying false targets, which the attacker cannot distinguish from the genuine object, and protecting the object. If the defender strikes preventively, the attacker's vulnerability depends on its protection and on the defender's resource allocated to the strike. If the attacker survives, the object's vulnerability depends on the attacker's revenge attack resource allocated to the attacked object. The optimal defense resource distribution between striking preventively, deploying the false targets and protecting the object is analyzed. Two cases of the attacker strategy are considered: when the attacker attacks all of the targets and when it chooses a number of targets to attack. An optimization model is presented for making a decision about the efficiency of the preventive strike based on the estimated attack probability, dependent on a variety of model parameters.

  10. Fully automatized renal parenchyma volumetry using a support vector machine based recognition system for subject-specific probability map generation in native MR volume data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gloger, Oliver; Tönnies, Klaus; Mensel, Birger; Völzke, Henry

    2015-11-01

    In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches.

  11. Fully automatized renal parenchyma volumetry using a support vector machine based recognition system for subject-specific probability map generation in native MR volume data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gloger, Oliver; Völzke, Henry; Tönnies, Klaus; Mensel, Birger

    2015-01-01

    In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches. (paper)

  12. MR-based automatic delineation of volumes of interest in human brain PET images using probability maps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svarer, Claus; Madsen, Karina; Hasselbalch, Steen G.

    2005-01-01

    subjects' MR-images, where VOI sets have been defined manually. High-resolution structural MR-images and 5-HT(2A) receptor binding PET-images (in terms of (18)F-altanserin binding) from 10 healthy volunteers and 10 patients with mild cognitive impairment were included for the analysis. A template including...... 35 VOIs was manually delineated on the subjects' MR images. Through a warping algorithm template VOI sets defined from each individual were transferred to the other subjects MR-images and the voxel overlap was compared to the VOI set specifically drawn for that particular individual. Comparisons were...... delineation of the VOI set. The approach was also shown to work equally well in individuals with pronounced cerebral atrophy. Probability-map-based automatic delineation of VOIs is a fast, objective, reproducible, and safe way to assess regional brain values from PET or SPECT scans. In addition, the method...

  13. Estimated probabilities, volumes, and inundation areas depths of potential postwildfire debris flows from Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks, near Marble, Gunnison County, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Michael R.; Flynn, Jennifer L.; Stephens, Verlin C.; Verdin, Kristine L.

    2011-01-01

    During 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Gunnison County, initiated a study to estimate the potential for postwildfire debris flows to occur in the drainage basins occupied by Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks near Marble, Colorado. Currently (2010), these drainage basins are unburned but could be burned by a future wildfire. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of postwildfire debris-flow occurrence and debris-flow volumes for drainage basins occupied by Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks near Marble. Data for the postwildfire debris-flow models included drainage basin area; area burned and burn severity; percentage of burned area; soil properties; rainfall total and intensity for the 5- and 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration-rainfall; and topographic and soil property characteristics of the drainage basins occupied by the four creeks. A quasi-two-dimensional floodplain computer model (FLO-2D) was used to estimate the spatial distribution and the maximum instantaneous depth of the postwildfire debris-flow material during debris flow on the existing debris-flow fans that issue from the outlets of the four major drainage basins. The postwildfire debris-flow probabilities at the outlet of each drainage basin range from 1 to 19 percent for the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and from 3 to 35 percent for 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. The largest probabilities for postwildfire debris flow are estimated for Raspberry Creek (19 and 35 percent), whereas estimated debris-flow probabilities for the three other creeks range from 1 to 6 percent. The estimated postwildfire debris-flow volumes at the outlet of each creek range from 7,500 to 101,000 cubic meters for the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and from 9,400 to 126,000 cubic meters for

  14. Probability of mediastinal involvement in non-small-cell lung cancer: a statistical definition of the clinical target volume for 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, Philippe; De Rycke, Yann; Lavole, Armelle; Milleron, Bernard; Cosset, Jean-Marc; Rosenzweig, Kenneth E.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Conformal irradiation (3D-CRT) of non-small-cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) is largely based on precise definition of the nodal clinical target volume (CTVn). A reduction of the number of nodal stations to be irradiated would facilitate tumor dose escalation. The aim of this study was to design a mathematical tool based on documented data to predict the risk of metastatic involvement for each nodal station. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the large surgical series published in the literature to identify the main pretreatment parameters that modify the risk of nodal invasion. The probability of involvement for the 17 nodal stations described by the American Thoracic Society (ATS) was computed from all these publications. Starting with the primary site of the tumor as the main characteristic, we built a probabilistic tree for each nodal station representing the risk distribution as a function of each tumor feature. Statistical analysis used the inversion of probability trees method described by Weinstein and Feinberg. Validation of the software based on 134 patients from two different populations was performed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and multivariate logistic regression. Results: Analysis of all of the various parameters of pretreatment staging relative to each level of the ATS map results in 20,000 different combinations. The first parameters included in the tree, depending on tumor site, were histologic classification, metastatic stage, nodal stage weighted as a function of the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic examination used (positron emission tomography scan, computed tomography scan), and tumor stage. Software is proposed to compute a predicted probability of involvement of each nodal station for any given clinical presentation. Double cross validation confirmed the methodology. A 10% cutoff point was calculated from ROC and logistic model giving the best prediction of mediastinal lymph node involvement. Conclusion

  15. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  16. Real analysis and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E

    1972-01-01

    Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var

  17. [Physicians' strikes--ethical considerations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Shimon; Schwarzfuchs, Dan

    2012-01-01

    Strikes in general represent a solution based on a form of coercion. Historically, the striker caused direct damage to his employer, who was responsible for the perceived unfair treatment of the employee. In the case of strikes in the public sector, the employer is generally not harmed, but innocent citizens suffer in order to pressure the government agencies, a questionable practice from an ethical viewpoint. Physicians' strikes have more serious ethical problems. They cause suffering and death to innocent citizens. They violate the ethical codes to which physicians have committed themselves as professionals, and they seriously impair the trust of the public in physicians. Better and more ethical ways to provide fair compensation for physicians must be employed, perhaps like those used for judges and members of the IDF.

  18. Miners' strike 1984-85

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, L; Salter, S [comps.

    1985-01-01

    References relating to the 1984-85 UK miners strike are listed under the following subject headings: events and analysis - a chronological record; short term effects - coal stocks and supplies, electricity supplies, financial, industrial and economic; the miners and their leadership; social aspects - civil liberties, media coverage, mining communities, picketing, policing, the future; pit closures. 240 references.

  19. Ruin probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg

    The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities......, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....

  20. Generalized Probability-Probability Plots

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mushkudiani, N.A.; Einmahl, J.H.J.

    2004-01-01

    We introduce generalized Probability-Probability (P-P) plots in order to study the one-sample goodness-of-fit problem and the two-sample problem, for real valued data.These plots, that are constructed by indexing with the class of closed intervals, globally preserve the properties of classical P-P

  1. Ignition Probability

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — USFS, State Forestry, BLM, and DOI fire occurrence point locations from 1987 to 2008 were combined and converted into a fire occurrence probability or density grid...

  2. Strikes in Serbia since 2000 to 2005

    OpenAIRE

    Novaković Nada

    2005-01-01

    In this article author deals with main characteristics of strikes in Serbia within the period 2000–2005. Analysis starts with thesis that strike is open class conflict within class divided society. Therefore strike is radical form of trade union struggle for workers rights. Main questions in the analysis were: on social structure as a background of strikes, on organizations and trade unions included in it, on effects of strikes in Serbia in the given period. Main thesis of the article is that...

  3. The concept of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsakis, E.I.; Nicolaides, C.A.

    1989-01-01

    The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  4. Respecting the right to strike

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2015-01-01

    Since two years the representatives of the employers in the ILO, a tripartite multilateral body responsible for guaranteeing the correct application of an international labour code, try to weaken the global work regulations. On the occasion of the Global Day of Action for the right to strike at the invitation of the Geneva community of Union action (Communauté genevoise d’action syndicale) and the Swiss Trade Union Association (Union syndicale suisse) around noon on Wednesday 18th February some fifty staff representatives of international organizations gathered on the place des Nations in Geneva to reaffirm the importance of this fundamental right, too often flouted. A delegation of the CERN Staff Association was also present. In a short speech, the Staff Association said that, while being one of the fundamental human rights, to be efficient the right to strike must be used intelligently. It must be implemented taking into account the sensitivities of the professional environment and r...

  5. Quantum Probabilities as Behavioral Probabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We demonstrate that behavioral probabilities of human decision makers share many common features with quantum probabilities. This does not imply that humans are some quantum objects, but just shows that the mathematics of quantum theory is applicable to the description of human decision making. The applicability of quantum rules for describing decision making is connected with the nontrivial process of making decisions in the case of composite prospects under uncertainty. Such a process involves deliberations of a decision maker when making a choice. In addition to the evaluation of the utilities of considered prospects, real decision makers also appreciate their respective attractiveness. Therefore, human choice is not based solely on the utility of prospects, but includes the necessity of resolving the utility-attraction duality. In order to justify that human consciousness really functions similarly to the rules of quantum theory, we develop an approach defining human behavioral probabilities as the probabilities determined by quantum rules. We show that quantum behavioral probabilities of humans do not merely explain qualitatively how human decisions are made, but they predict quantitative values of the behavioral probabilities. Analyzing a large set of empirical data, we find good quantitative agreement between theoretical predictions and observed experimental data.

  6. Risk Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo

    Tail probabilities of sums of heavy-tailed random variables are of a major importance in various branches of Applied Probability, such as Risk Theory, Queueing Theory, Financial Management, and are subject to intense research nowadays. To understand their relevance one just needs to think...... analytic expression for the distribution function of a sum of random variables. The presence of heavy-tailed random variables complicates the problem even more. The objective of this dissertation is to provide better approximations by means of sharp asymptotic expressions and Monte Carlo estimators...

  7. When the Ocean Strikes Back

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebauer, Mirjam

    2013-01-01

    The disaster scenario is one of the predominant settings we find unfold in the pop-cultural imagination, namely in films and novels. In recent years, as increased awareness of environmental issues affect the agendas of public debate, we also see local and increasingly global environmental disasters...... is evolving caused by an intelligent life form of the deep sea striking back at mankind. This article aims at discussing in what ways The Swarm uses elements and patterns of the pop-cultural disaster imagination, specifically the disaster and science fiction movie of the 1990s. Furthermore, it investigates...

  8. Probability tales

    CERN Document Server

    Grinstead, Charles M; Snell, J Laurie

    2011-01-01

    This book explores four real-world topics through the lens of probability theory. It can be used to supplement a standard text in probability or statistics. Most elementary textbooks present the basic theory and then illustrate the ideas with some neatly packaged examples. Here the authors assume that the reader has seen, or is learning, the basic theory from another book and concentrate in some depth on the following topics: streaks, the stock market, lotteries, and fingerprints. This extended format allows the authors to present multiple approaches to problems and to pursue promising side discussions in ways that would not be possible in a book constrained to cover a fixed set of topics. To keep the main narrative accessible, the authors have placed the more technical mathematical details in appendices. The appendices can be understood by someone who has taken one or two semesters of calculus.

  9. Probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Dorogovtsev, A Ya; Skorokhod, A V; Silvestrov, D S; Skorokhod, A V

    1997-01-01

    This book of problems is intended for students in pure and applied mathematics. There are problems in traditional areas of probability theory and problems in the theory of stochastic processes, which has wide applications in the theory of automatic control, queuing and reliability theories, and in many other modern science and engineering fields. Answers to most of the problems are given, and the book provides hints and solutions for more complicated problems.

  10. Probability and Bayesian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    1987-01-01

    This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

  11. Probabilities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hartmann, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...

  12. Women, transition and strikes in Serbia

    OpenAIRE

    Novaković, Nada G.

    2014-01-01

    The author, in a sociological way, describes and analyzes the concepts of transition, privatization and strikes in Serbia, particularly the place of women in it. It examines the most important economic and social causes and consequences of these phenomena. The main hypothesis is: women's strikes in the Serbian transition are less efficient than strikes and public protests of women in the developed world and the second Yugoslavia. A strike is a class conflict, in which the workers are fighting...

  13. 14 CFR 35.38 - Lightning strike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Lightning strike. 35.38 Section 35.38... STANDARDS: PROPELLERS Tests and Inspections § 35.38 Lightning strike. The applicant must demonstrate, by... lightning strike without causing a major or hazardous propeller effect. The limit to which the propeller has...

  14. The Airbag as a Supplement to Standard Restraint Systems in the AH-1 and AH-64 Attack Helicopters and Its Role in Reducing Head Strikes of the Copilot/ Gunner. Volume 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    shelf and locally available automotive airbag system was selected for the tests. The system was a driver’s side airbag designed by Honda Motor Company...allowance for hardware redesign or modifi- cation. Despite these limitations, the study succeeded in demonstrating a problem exists and a supplemental airbag ...JSAARL Repqrt No. 91-8 AD-A233 349 Volume’ I(3 The Airbag as a Supplement to Standard Restraint Systems in the AH-1 and AH-64 Attack Helicopters and

  15. Probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hsu, Elton P

    1999-01-01

    This volume, with contributions by leading experts in the field, is a collection of lecture notes of the six minicourses given at the IAS/Park City Summer Mathematics Institute. It introduces advanced graduates and researchers in probability theory to several of the currently active research areas in the field. Each course is self-contained with references and contains basic materials and recent results. Topics include interacting particle systems, percolation theory, analysis on path and loop spaces, and mathematical finance. The volume gives a balanced overview of the current status of probability theory. An extensive bibliography for further study and research is included. This unique collection presents several important areas of current research and a valuable survey reflecting the diversity of the field.

  16. Preemptive strikes: Fear, hope, and defensive aggression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halevy, Nir

    2017-02-01

    Preemptive strikes are costly and harmful. Existing models of defensive aggression focus narrowly on the role fear plays in motivating preemptive strikes. Theoretically integrating the literatures on conflict, decision making, and emotion, the current research investigated how specific emotions associated with certainty or uncertainty, including fear, anger, disgust, hope, and happiness, influence preemptive strikes. Study 1 demonstrated that hope negatively predicts defensive exits from relationships in choice dilemmas. Studies 2 and 3 experimentally manipulated risk of being attacked in an incentivized, interactive decision making task-the Preemptive Strike Game. Risk of being attacked fueled preemptive strikes; reduced feelings of hope partially mediated this effect in Study 3. Studies 4 and 5 investigated preemptive strikes under uncertainty (rather than risk). In Study 4, reasoning about the factors that make one trustful of others curbed preemptive strikes; cogitating about the factors that underlie discrete emotions, however, did not influence defensive aggression. Study 5 demonstrated that the valence and uncertainty appraisals of incidental emotions interact in shaping preemptive strikes. Specifically, recalling an autobiographical emotional experience that produced hope significantly decreased attack rates relative to fear, happiness, and a control condition. Fear, anger, disgust, and happiness were either unrelated to preemptive strikes or showed inconsistent relationships with preemptive strikes across the 5 studies. These findings shed light on how emotions shape defensive aggression, advance knowledge on strategic choice under risk and uncertainty, and demonstrate hope's positive effects on social interactions and relationships. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR): Data manual. Part 2: Human error probability (HEP) data; Volume 5, Revision 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reece, W.J.; Gilbert, B.G.; Richards, R.E. [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1994-09-01

    This data manual contains a hard copy of the information in the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) Version 3.5 database, which is sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NUCLARR was designed as a tool for risk analysis. Many of the nuclear reactors in the US and several outside the US are represented in the NUCLARR database. NUCLARR includes both human error probability estimates for workers at the plants and hardware failure data for nuclear reactor equipment. Aggregations of these data yield valuable reliability estimates for probabilistic risk assessments and human reliability analyses. The data manual is organized to permit manual searches of the information if the computerized version is not available. Originally, the manual was published in three parts. In this revision the introductory material located in the original Part 1 has been incorporated into the text of Parts 2 and 3. The user can now find introductory material either in the original Part 1, or in Parts 2 and 3 as revised. Part 2 contains the human error probability data, and Part 3, the hardware component reliability data.

  18. Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR): Data manual. Part 2: Human error probability (HEP) data; Volume 5, Revision 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reece, W.J.; Gilbert, B.G.; Richards, R.E.

    1994-09-01

    This data manual contains a hard copy of the information in the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) Version 3.5 database, which is sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NUCLARR was designed as a tool for risk analysis. Many of the nuclear reactors in the US and several outside the US are represented in the NUCLARR database. NUCLARR includes both human error probability estimates for workers at the plants and hardware failure data for nuclear reactor equipment. Aggregations of these data yield valuable reliability estimates for probabilistic risk assessments and human reliability analyses. The data manual is organized to permit manual searches of the information if the computerized version is not available. Originally, the manual was published in three parts. In this revision the introductory material located in the original Part 1 has been incorporated into the text of Parts 2 and 3. The user can now find introductory material either in the original Part 1, or in Parts 2 and 3 as revised. Part 2 contains the human error probability data, and Part 3, the hardware component reliability data

  19. Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR): Data manual, Part 2: Human Error Probability (HEP) Data. Volume 5, Revision 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reece, W.J.; Gilbert, B.G.; Richards, R.E.

    1994-09-01

    This data manual contains a hard copy of the information in the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability (NUCLARR) Version 3.5 database, which is sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NUCLARR was designed as a tool for risk analysis. Many of the nuclear reactors in the US and several outside the US are represented in the NUCLARR database. NUCLARR includes both human error probability estimates for workers at the plants and hardware failure data for nuclear reactor equipment. Aggregations of these data yield valuable reliability estimates for probabilistic risk assessments and human reliability analyses. The data manual is organized to permit manual searches of the information if the computerized version is not available. Originally, the manual was published in three parts. In this revision the introductory material located in the original Part 1 has been incorporated into the text of Parts 2 and 3. The user can now find introductory material either in the original Part 1, or in Parts 2 and 3 as revised. Part 2 contains the human error probability data, and Part 3, the hardware component reliability data

  20. Estimating the Impact of Bird Strikes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metz, I.C.; Muhlhausen, Thorsten; Ellerbroek, J.; Hoekstra, J.M.

    2018-01-01

    Bird strikes have the potential to cause severe damage to aircraft. Therefore, measures to reduce the risk of bird strikes are performed at airports. However, this risk is not limited to the airport but is increased in the arrival and departure corridors as well. Consequently, a significant amount

  1. Option Strike Price and Managerial Investment Decisions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘鸿雁; 张维

    2003-01-01

    The manager′s investment decisions is modeled when the manager is risk-averse and has stock options as compensation. It is found that the strike price of options is crucial to the investment incentives of managers, and that the correct value, or interval of values, of managerial stock option strike price can bring stockholder and manager interests in agreement.

  2. Probability of pipe fracture in the primary coolant loop of a PWR plant. Volume 9: PRAISE computer code user's manual. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, E.Y.

    1981-08-01

    The PRAISE (Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events) computer code estimates the influence of earthquakes on the probability of failure at a weld joint in the primary coolant system of a pressurized water reactor. Failure, either a through-wall defect (leak) or a complete pipe severance (a large-LOCA), is assumed to be caused by fatigue crack growth of an as-fabricated interior surface circumferential defect. These defects are assumed to be two-dimensional and semi-elliptical in shape. The distribution of initial crack sizes is a function of crack depth and aspect ratio. Crack propagation rates are governed by a Paris-type relationship with separate RMS cyclic stress intensity factors for the depth and length. Both uniform through the wall and radial gradient thermal stresses are included in the calculation of the stress intensity factors. The failure probabilities are estimated by applying Monte Carlo methods to simulate the life histories of the selected weld joint. In order to maximize computational efficiency, a stratified sampling procedure is used to select the initial crack size. Hydrostatic proof test, pre-service inspection, and in-service inspection can be simulated. PRAISE treats the inter-arrival times of operating transients either as a constant or exponentially distributed according to observed or postulated rates. Leak rate and leak detection models are also included. The criterion for complete pipe severance is exceedance of a net section critical stress. Earthquakes of various intensity and arbitrary occurrence times can be modeled. PRAISE presently assumes that exactly one initial defect exists in the weld and that the earthquake of interest is the first earthquake experienced at the reactor

  3. A Probabilistic, Facility-Centric Approach to Lightning Strike Location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William p.; Merceret, Francis J.

    2012-01-01

    A new probabilistic facility-centric approach to lightning strike location has been developed. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collisionith spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

  4. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  5. Applied probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Sumita, Ushio

    1999-01-01

    Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...

  6. Lightning Strike in Pregnancy With Fetal Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galster, Kellen; Hodnick, Ryan; Berkeley, Ross P

    2016-06-01

    Injuries from lightning strikes are an infrequent occurrence, and are only rarely noted to involve pregnant victims. Only 13 cases of lightning strike in pregnancy have been previously described in the medical literature, along with 7 additional cases discovered within news media reports. This case report presents a novel case of lightning-associated injury in a patient in the third trimester of pregnancy, resulting in fetal ischemic brain injury and long-term morbidity, and reviews the mechanics of lightning strikes along with common injury patterns of which emergency providers should be aware. Copyright © 2016 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Incidence of late rectal bleeding in high-dose conformal radiotherapy of prostate cancer using equivalent uniform dose-based and dose-volume-based normal tissue complication probability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soehn, Matthias; Yan Di; Liang Jian; Meldolesi, Elisa; Vargas, Carlos; Alber, Markus

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Accurate modeling of rectal complications based on dose-volume histogram (DVH) data are necessary to allow safe dose escalation in radiotherapy of prostate cancer. We applied different equivalent uniform dose (EUD)-based and dose-volume-based normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models to rectal wall DVHs and follow-up data for 319 prostate cancer patients to identify the dosimetric factors most predictive for Grade ≥ 2 rectal bleeding. Methods and Materials: Data for 319 patients treated at the William Beaumont Hospital with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) under an adaptive radiotherapy protocol were used for this study. The following models were considered: (1) Lyman model and (2) logit-formula with DVH reduced to generalized EUD (3) serial reconstruction unit (RU) model (4) Poisson-EUD model, and (5) mean dose- and (6) cutoff dose-logistic regression model. The parameters and their confidence intervals were determined using maximum likelihood estimation. Results: Of the patients, 51 (16.0%) showed Grade 2 or higher bleeding. As assessed qualitatively and quantitatively, the Lyman- and Logit-EUD, serial RU, and Poisson-EUD model fitted the data very well. Rectal wall mean dose did not correlate to Grade 2 or higher bleeding. For the cutoff dose model, the volume receiving > 73.7 Gy showed most significant correlation to bleeding. However, this model fitted the data more poorly than the EUD-based models. Conclusions: Our study clearly confirms a volume effect for late rectal bleeding. This can be described very well by the EUD-like models, of which the serial RU- and Poisson-EUD model can describe the data with only two parameters. Dose-volume-based cutoff-dose models performed worse

  8. Under conditions of large geometric miss, tumor control probability can be higher for static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy compared to volume-modulated arc therapy for prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balderson, Michael; Brown, Derek; Johnson, Patricia; Kirkby, Charles

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this work was to compare static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with volume-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in terms of tumor control probability (TCP) under scenarios involving large geometric misses, i.e., those beyond what are accounted for when margin expansion is determined. Using a planning approach typical for these treatments, a linear-quadratic–based model for TCP was used to compare mean TCP values for a population of patients who experiences a geometric miss (i.e., systematic and random shifts of the clinical target volume within the planning target dose distribution). A Monte Carlo approach was used to account for the different biological sensitivities of a population of patients. Interestingly, for errors consisting of coplanar systematic target volume offsets and three-dimensional random offsets, static gantry IMRT appears to offer an advantage over VMAT in that larger shift errors are tolerated for the same mean TCP. For example, under the conditions simulated, erroneous systematic shifts of 15 mm directly between or directly into static gantry IMRT fields result in mean TCP values between 96% and 98%, whereas the same errors on VMAT plans result in mean TCP values between 45% and 74%. Random geometric shifts of the target volume were characterized using normal distributions in each Cartesian dimension. When the standard deviations were doubled from those values assumed in the derivation of the treatment margins, our model showed a 7% drop in mean TCP for the static gantry IMRT plans but a 20% drop in TCP for the VMAT plans. Although adding a margin for error to a clinical target volume is perhaps the best approach to account for expected geometric misses, this work suggests that static gantry IMRT may offer a treatment that is more tolerant to geometric miss errors than VMAT.

  9. Under conditions of large geometric miss, tumor control probability can be higher for static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy compared to volume-modulated arc therapy for prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderson, Michael; Brown, Derek; Johnson, Patricia; Kirkby, Charles

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this work was to compare static gantry intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with volume-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) in terms of tumor control probability (TCP) under scenarios involving large geometric misses, i.e., those beyond what are accounted for when margin expansion is determined. Using a planning approach typical for these treatments, a linear-quadratic-based model for TCP was used to compare mean TCP values for a population of patients who experiences a geometric miss (i.e., systematic and random shifts of the clinical target volume within the planning target dose distribution). A Monte Carlo approach was used to account for the different biological sensitivities of a population of patients. Interestingly, for errors consisting of coplanar systematic target volume offsets and three-dimensional random offsets, static gantry IMRT appears to offer an advantage over VMAT in that larger shift errors are tolerated for the same mean TCP. For example, under the conditions simulated, erroneous systematic shifts of 15mm directly between or directly into static gantry IMRT fields result in mean TCP values between 96% and 98%, whereas the same errors on VMAT plans result in mean TCP values between 45% and 74%. Random geometric shifts of the target volume were characterized using normal distributions in each Cartesian dimension. When the standard deviations were doubled from those values assumed in the derivation of the treatment margins, our model showed a 7% drop in mean TCP for the static gantry IMRT plans but a 20% drop in TCP for the VMAT plans. Although adding a margin for error to a clinical target volume is perhaps the best approach to account for expected geometric misses, this work suggests that static gantry IMRT may offer a treatment that is more tolerant to geometric miss errors than VMAT. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Medical Dosimetrists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Introduction to probability theory with contemporary applications

    CERN Document Server

    Helms, Lester L

    2010-01-01

    This introduction to probability theory transforms a highly abstract subject into a series of coherent concepts. Its extensive discussions and clear examples, written in plain language, expose students to the rules and methods of probability. Suitable for an introductory probability course, this volume requires abstract and conceptual thinking skills and a background in calculus.Topics include classical probability, set theory, axioms, probability functions, random and independent random variables, expected values, and covariance and correlations. Additional subjects include stochastic process

  11. Expeditionary Strike Group: Command Structure Design Support

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hutchins, Susan G; Kemple, William G; Kleinman, David L; Hocevar, Susan P

    2005-01-01

    An Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) is a new capability mix that combines the combat power of three surface combatants and one submarine with an Amphibious Readiness Group/ Marine Expeditionary Unit...

  12. Feature Hepatitis: Hepatitis Can Strike Anyone

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Navigation Bar Home Current Issue Past Issues Feature Hepatitis Hepatitis Can Strike Anyone Past Issues / Spring 2009 Table ... from all walks of life are affected by hepatitis, especially hepatitis C, the most common form of ...

  13. Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Saad, Emad

    2013-01-01

    Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...

  14. Selected papers on probability and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    2009-01-01

    This volume contains translations of papers that originally appeared in the Japanese journal Sūgaku. The papers range over a variety of topics in probability theory, statistics, and applications. This volume is suitable for graduate students and research mathematicians interested in probability and statistics.

  15. Women, transition and strikes in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novaković Nada G.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The author, in a sociological way, describes and analyzes the concepts of transition, privatization and strikes in Serbia, particularly the place of women in it. It examines the most important economic and social causes and consequences of these phenomena. The main hypothesis is: women's strikes in the Serbian transition are less efficient than strikes and public protests of women in the developed world and the second Yugoslavia. A strike is a class conflict, in which the workers are fighting for their social and economic rights, threatened by the capitalist class. Elites in government and state authorities protect the interests of big capital at the detriment of the interests of the majority of workers. Exploring women's strikes in transition reveals the nature of the social and political system. Their strikes in enterprises, the blocking of public spaces and public protests are systemic, ie. class determined. As the transition was very fast, the resistance of the strikers was inefficient, and the protests of women became an expression of desperation against the loss of jobs and basic resources for lifehood. In short, this research is about the main causes, the organizational forms and the consequences of strikes in which the majority were women. For this purpose, the author chose to describe an array of strikes in the industries and the companies where women are most employed. The choice of strikes in the economic sector is not accidental, but a consequence of the fact that the women there were the most vulnerable. Women in public institutions and companies had much higher financial and social position. They are less likely to strike and publicly protested. After 2000, these strikes were more successful than worker's strikes in textile, food processing, manufacturing and trade. Relationship between the government and the public towards them was tainted by self-interest and selective. The main criterion for the selection of companies and

  16. Scaling Qualitative Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2017-01-01

    There are different approaches to qualitative probability, which includes subjective probability. We developed a representation of qualitative probability based on relational systems, which allows modeling uncertainty by probability structures and is more coherent than existing approaches. This setting makes it possible proving that any comparative probability is induced by some probability structure (Theorem 2.1), that classical probability is a probability structure (Theorem 2.2) and that i...

  17. When Push Comes to Shove: Strikes in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magney, John

    2002-01-01

    To provide a better sense of how academic unions handle a strike situation, examines six unions who, between 1996 and 2000, went through strikes. Discusses the key issues and outcomes of the strikes. (EV)

  18. Conditional probability of the tornado missile impact given a tornado occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

    1982-01-01

    Using an approach based on statistical mechanics, an expression for the probability of the first missile strike is developed. The expression depends on two generic parameters (injection probability eta(F) and height distribution psi(Z,F)), which are developed in this study, and one plant specific parameter (number of potential missiles N/sub p/). The expression for the joint probability of simultaneous impact of muitiple targets is also developed. This espression is applicable to calculation of the probability of common cause failure due to tornado missiles. It is shown that the probability of the first missile strike can be determined using a uniform missile distribution model. It is also shown that the conditional probability of the second strike, given the first, is underestimated by the uniform model. The probability of the second strike is greatly increased if the missiles are in clusters large enough to cover both targets

  19. Free probability and random matrices

    CERN Document Server

    Mingo, James A

    2017-01-01

    This volume opens the world of free probability to a wide variety of readers. From its roots in the theory of operator algebras, free probability has intertwined with non-crossing partitions, random matrices, applications in wireless communications, representation theory of large groups, quantum groups, the invariant subspace problem, large deviations, subfactors, and beyond. This book puts a special emphasis on the relation of free probability to random matrices, but also touches upon the operator algebraic, combinatorial, and analytic aspects of the theory. The book serves as a combination textbook/research monograph, with self-contained chapters, exercises scattered throughout the text, and coverage of important ongoing progress of the theory. It will appeal to graduate students and all mathematicians interested in random matrices and free probability from the point of view of operator algebras, combinatorics, analytic functions, or applications in engineering and statistical physics.

  20. Impact of lightning strikes on hospital functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortelmans, Luc J M; Van Springel, Gert L J; Van Boxstael, Sam; Herrijgers, Jan; Hoflacks, Stefaan

    2009-01-01

    Two regional hospitals were struck by lightning during a one-month period. The first hospital, which had 236 beds, suffered a direct strike to the building. This resulted in a direct spread of the power peak and temporary failure of the standard power supply. The principle problems, after restoring standard power supply, were with the fire alarm system and peripheral network connections in the digital radiology systems. No direct impact on the hardware could be found. Restarting the servers resolved all problems. The second hospital, which had 436 beds, had a lightning strike on the premises and mainly experienced problems due to induction. All affected installations had a cable connection from outside in one way or another. The power supplies never were endangered. The main problem was the failure of different communication systems (telephone, radio, intercom, fire alarm system). Also, the electronic entrance control went out. During the days after the lightening strike, multiple software problems became apparent, as well as failures of the network connections controlling the technical support systems. There are very few ways to prepare for induction problems. The use of fiber-optic networks can limit damage. To the knowledge of the authors, these are the first cases of lightning striking hospitals in medical literature.

  1. Actual and perceived collision risk for bird strikes at Namibian airports

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    At Namibia's two major airports, Hosea Kutako International and Eros (domestic), 117 bird strike collision incidents were recorded between 2006 and 2010. A risk assessment, which included a proposed risk weighting methodology, was conducted at Hosea Kutako and Eros airports, which estimated the probability of an ...

  2. On Probability Leakage

    OpenAIRE

    Briggs, William M.

    2012-01-01

    The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.

  3. Probability 1/e

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  4. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Goldberg, Samuel

    1960-01-01

    Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.

  5. Quantum probability measures and tomographic probability densities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amosov, GG; Man'ko, [No Value

    2004-01-01

    Using a simple relation of the Dirac delta-function to generalized the theta-function, the relationship between the tomographic probability approach and the quantum probability measure approach with the description of quantum states is discussed. The quantum state tomogram expressed in terms of the

  6. Foot strike patterns and collision forces in habitually barefoot versus shod runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman, Daniel E; Venkadesan, Madhusudhan; Werbel, William A; Daoud, Adam I; D'Andrea, Susan; Davis, Irene S; Mang'eni, Robert Ojiambo; Pitsiladis, Yannis

    2010-01-28

    Humans have engaged in endurance running for millions of years, but the modern running shoe was not invented until the 1970s. For most of human evolutionary history, runners were either barefoot or wore minimal footwear such as sandals or moccasins with smaller heels and little cushioning relative to modern running shoes. We wondered how runners coped with the impact caused by the foot colliding with the ground before the invention of the modern shoe. Here we show that habitually barefoot endurance runners often land on the fore-foot (fore-foot strike) before bringing down the heel, but they sometimes land with a flat foot (mid-foot strike) or, less often, on the heel (rear-foot strike). In contrast, habitually shod runners mostly rear-foot strike, facilitated by the elevated and cushioned heel of the modern running shoe. Kinematic and kinetic analyses show that even on hard surfaces, barefoot runners who fore-foot strike generate smaller collision forces than shod rear-foot strikers. This difference results primarily from a more plantarflexed foot at landing and more ankle compliance during impact, decreasing the effective mass of the body that collides with the ground. Fore-foot- and mid-foot-strike gaits were probably more common when humans ran barefoot or in minimal shoes, and may protect the feet and lower limbs from some of the impact-related injuries now experienced by a high percentage of runners.

  7. Central hyperadrenergic state after lightning strike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsaik, Ajay K; Ahlskog, J Eric; Singer, Wolfgang; Gelfman, Russell; Sheldon, Seth H; Seime, Richard J; Craft, Jennifer M; Staab, Jeffrey P; Kantor, Birgit; Low, Phillip A

    2013-08-01

    To describe and review autonomic complications of lightning strike. Case report and laboratory data including autonomic function tests in a subject who was struck by lightning. A 24-year-old man was struck by lightning. Following that, he developed dysautonomia, with persistent inappropriate sinus tachycardia and autonomic storms, as well as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and functional neurologic problems. The combination of persistent sinus tachycardia and episodic exacerbations associated with hypertension, diaphoresis, and agitation was highly suggestive of a central hyperadrenergic state with superimposed autonomic storms. Whether the additional PTSD and functional neurologic deficits were due to a direct effect of the lightning strike on the central nervous system or a secondary response is open to speculation.

  8. ["Bell-striking" Saying of Acupuncture Therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing-Sheng

    2017-04-25

    As an analogy, a prototype of "bell-striking" is proposed in the present paper for exploring the basic properties, major elements, and potential mechanisms of acupuncture stimulation. On the strength of analysis on the physiological basis of acupuncture effect, several fundamental aspects of acupuncture are summarized as a) the body-surface stimulating characters, b) general and local effects, and c) triggering the auto-regulative function of the organism, which mimics the "bell-striking" response. Namely, when stroke, bell will chime, otherwise, chiming will not be heard. During analyzing special contents of acupuncture theory, its formative background should not be separated, and it is improper to take, modern medical theory of the human body as the guiding thinking way for researching the ancient Chinese medical literature.

  9. Proliferation of Precision Strike: Issues for Congress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-14

    industrial base. Finally, should Congress legislate requirements for DOD to develop precision strike countermeasures and then provide funding for that...Defense, Part 187 – Environmental Effects Abroad of Major Department of Defense Actions, Section 187.3: Definitions. 32 Bryan Clark and Dan Whiteneck...so many missiles ... referring to reports of Venezuelan arms flowing to Colombian guerrillas.... The Chavez regime also has close ties with

  10. Stress distribution of metatarsals during forefoot strike versus rearfoot strike: A finite element study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shudong; Zhang, Yan; Gu, Yaodong; Ren, James

    2017-12-01

    Due to the limitations of experimental approaches, comparison of the internal deformation and stresses of the human man foot between forefoot and rearfoot landing is not fully established. The objective of this work is to develop an effective FE modelling approach to comparatively study the stresses and energy in the foot during forefoot strike (FS) and rearfoot strike (RS). The stress level and rate of stress increase in the Metatarsals are established and the injury risk between these two landing styles is evaluated and discussed. A detailed subject specific FE foot model is developed and validated. A hexahedral dominated meshing scheme was applied on the surface of the foot bones and skin. An explicit solver (Abaqus/Explicit) was used to stimulate the transient landing process. The deformation and internal energy of the foot and stresses in the metatarsals are comparatively investigated. The results for forefoot strike tests showed an overall higher average stress level in the metatarsals during the entire landing cycle than that for rearfoot strike. The increase rate of the metatarsal stress from the 0.5 body weight (BW) to 2 BW load point is 30.76% for forefoot strike and 21.39% for rearfoot strike. The maximum rate of stress increase among the five metatarsals is observed on the 1st metatarsal in both landing modes. The results indicate that high stress level during forefoot landing phase may increase potential of metatarsal injuries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Gait Retraining From Rearfoot Strike to Forefoot Strike does not change Running Economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roper, Jenevieve Lynn; Doerfler, Deborah; Kravitz, Len; Dufek, Janet S; Mermier, Christine

    2017-12-01

    Gait retraining is a method for management of patellofemoral pain, which is a common ailment among recreational runners. The present study investigated the effects of gait retraining from rearfoot strike to forefoot strike on running economy, heart rate, and respiratory exchange ratio immediately post-retraining and one-month post-retraining in recreational runners with patellofemoral pain. Knee pain was also measured. Sixteen participants (n=16) were randomly placed in the control (n=8) or experimental (n=8) group. A 10-minute treadmill RE test was performed by all subjects. The experimental group performed eight gait retraining running sessions where foot strike pattern was switched from rearfoot strike to forefoot strike, while the control group received no intervention. There were no significant differences for running economy (p=0.26), respiratory exchange ratio (p=0.258), or heart rate (p=0.248) between the groups. Knee pain reported on a visual analog scale was also significantly reduced (pstrike to forefoot strike did not affect running economy up to one-month post-retraining while reducing running-related patellofemoral pain. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  12. The Distribution of Cloud to Ground Lightning Strike Intensities and Associated Magnetic Inductance Fields Near the Kennedy Space Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Lee; Decker, Ryan

    2005-01-01

    Lightning strike location and peak current are monitored operationally in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) area by the Cloud to Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS). The present study compiles ten years worth of CGLSS data into a database of near strikes. Using shuffle launch platform LP39A as a convenient central point, all strikes recorded within a 20-mile radius for the period of record O R ) from January 1, 1993 to December 31,2002 were included in the subset database. Histograms and cumulative probability curves are produced for both strike intensity (peak current, in kA) and the corresponding magnetic inductance fields (in A/m). Results for the full POR have application to launch operations lightning monitoring and post-strike test procedures.

  13. Toward a generalized probability theory: conditional probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cassinelli, G.

    1979-01-01

    The main mathematical object of interest in the quantum logic approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics is the orthomodular lattice and a set of probability measures, or states, defined by the lattice. This mathematical structure is studied per se, independently from the intuitive or physical motivation of its definition, as a generalized probability theory. It is thought that the building-up of such a probability theory could eventually throw light on the mathematical structure of Hilbert-space quantum mechanics as a particular concrete model of the generalized theory. (Auth.)

  14. Probability Measures on Groups IX

    CERN Document Server

    1989-01-01

    The latest in this series of Oberwolfach conferences focussed on the interplay between structural probability theory and various other areas of pure and applied mathematics such as Tauberian theory, infinite-dimensional rotation groups, central limit theorems, harmonizable processes, and spherical data. Thus it was attended by mathematicians whose research interests range from number theory to quantum physics in conjunction with structural properties of probabilistic phenomena. This volume contains 5 survey articles submitted on special invitation and 25 original research papers.

  15. Foot-strike haemolysis in an ultramarathon runner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazal, Abid A; Whittemore, Mary S; DeGeorge, Katharine C

    2017-12-13

    This case report describes mild anaemia and intravascular haemolysis in an otherwise healthy 41-year-old ultramarathon runner. In long-distance endurance athletes, trace gastrointestinal bleeding and plasma volume expansion are recognised sources of mild anaemia, often found incidentally. However, repetitive forceful foot striking can lead to blood cell lysis in the feet, resulting in a mild macrocytic anaemia and intravascular haemolysis, as was demonstrated in the patient described herein. Mild anaemia in runners, often called 'runner's pseudoanaemia', is typically clinically insignificant and does not require intervention. However, an unexplained anaemia can cause undue worry for otherwise healthy patients and lead to costly further testing, providing an argument against routine testing with complete blood counts in healthy, asymptomatic patients. © BMJ Publishing Group Ltd (unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  16. Acute transient hemiparesis induced by lightning strike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Seyed Hesam; Faridaalaee, Gholamreza; Jahangard, Samira

    2015-07-01

    According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,in the years from 1959 to 1994, lightning was responsible for more than 3000 deaths and nearly 10,000 casualties. The most important characteristic features of lightning injuries are multisystem involvement and widely variable severity. Lightning strikes are primarily a neurologic injury that affects all 3 components of the nervous system: central, autonomic,and peripheral. Neurologic complications of lightning strikes vary from transient benign symptoms to permanent disability. Many patients experience a temporary paralysis called keraunoparalysis. Here we reported a 22-year-old mountaineer man with complaining of left sided hemiparesis after being hit by a lightning strike in the mountain 3 hours ago. There was no loss of consciousness at hitting time. On arrival the patient was alert, awake and hemodynamically stable. In neurologic examination cranial nerves were intact, left sided upper and lower extremity muscle force was I/V with a combination of complete sensory loss, and right-sided muscle force and sensory examination were normal. There is not any evidence of significant vascular impairment in the affected extremities. Brain MRI and CT scan and cervical MRI were normal. During 2 days of admission, with intravenous hydration, heparin 5000 unit SC q12hr and physical therapy of the affected limbs, motor and sensory function improved and was normal except mild paresthesia. He was discharged 1 day later for outpatient follow up while vitamin B1 100mg orally was prescribed.Paresthesia improved after 3 days without further sequels.

  17. Foot-strike pattern and performance in a marathon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmer, Mark E; Liu, Xue-Cheng; Roberts, Kyle G; Valadao, Jason M

    2013-05-01

    To determine prevalence of heel strike in a midsize city marathon, if there is an association between foot-strike classification and race performance, and if there is an association between foot-strike classification and gender. Foot-strike classification (forefoot, midfoot, heel, or split strike), gender, and rank (position in race) were recorded at the 8.1-km mark for 2112 runners at the 2011 Milwaukee Lakefront Marathon. 1991 runners were classified by foot-strike pattern, revealing a heel-strike prevalence of 93.67% (n = 1865). A significant difference between foot-strike classification and performance was found using a Kruskal-Wallis test (P strike. No significant difference between foot-strike classification and gender was found using a Fisher exact test. In addition, subgroup analysis of the 126 non-heel strikers found no significant difference between shoe wear and performance using a Kruskal-Wallis test. The high prevalence of heel striking observed in this study reflects the foot-strike pattern of most mid-distance to long-distance runners and, more important, may predict their injury profile based on the biomechanics of a heel-strike running pattern. This knowledge can help clinicians appropriately diagnose, manage, and train modifications of injured runners.

  18. Philosophical theories of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2000-01-01

    The Twentieth Century has seen a dramatic rise in the use of probability and statistics in almost all fields of research. This has stimulated many new philosophical ideas on probability. Philosophical Theories of Probability is the first book to present a clear, comprehensive and systematic account of these various theories and to explain how they relate to one another. Gillies also offers a distinctive version of the propensity theory of probability, and the intersubjective interpretation, which develops the subjective theory.

  19. Non-Archimedean Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia

    We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and only the empty set gets assigned

  20. Interpretations of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2009-01-01

    This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.

  1. 2002 Bird Strike Committee USA/Canada Conference

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dolbeer, Richard

    2002-01-01

    Over 380 people from 20 countries and 17 exhibitors attended the 4th annual joint meeting of Bird Strike Committee-USA and Bird Strike Committee Canada in Sacramento, California on October 21-24, 2002...

  2. effect of strikes on management and planning of educational ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global Journal

    Strike is an event that consumes and waste a lot of time which implies that ... from this paper. KEYWORDS: Strikes, Management, Planning, Educational, Activities, Universities ..... employers; and Introduction of new technology which affect the ...

  3. BIRD/WILDLIFE STRIKE CONTROL FOR SAFER AIR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2012-06-05

    Jun 5, 2012 ... Keywords: bird/wildlife, strike, aviation, hazard, control. Introduction ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management EJESM Vol. 5 No. 3 2012 .... Aircraft Bird. Strike Avoidance Rader System (ABARS) and.

  4. Strike-slip tectonics during rift linkage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagli, C.; Yun, S. H.; Ebinger, C.; Keir, D.; Wang, H.

    2017-12-01

    The kinematics of triple junction linkage and the initiation of transforms in magmatic rifts remain debated. Strain patterns from the Afar triple junction provide tests of current models of how rifts grow to link in area of incipient oceanic spreading. Here we present a combined analysis of seismicity, InSAR and GPS derived strain rate maps to reveal that the plate boundary deformation in Afar is accommodated primarily by extensional tectonics in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden rifts, and does not require large rotations about vertical axes (bookshelf faulting). Additionally, models of stress changes and seismicity induced by recent dykes in one sector of the Afar triple junction provide poor fit to the observed strike-slip earthquakes. Instead we explain these patterns as rift-perpendicular shearing at the tips of spreading rifts where extensional strains terminate against less stretched lithosphere. Our results demonstrate that rift-perpendicular strike-slip faulting between rift segments achieves plate boundary linkage during incipient seafloor spreading.

  5. Properties of Lightning Strike Protection Coatings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagne, Martin

    Composite materials are being increasingly used by many industries. In the case of aerospace companies, those materials are installed on their aircraft to save weight, and thus, fuel costs. These aircraft are lighter, but the loss of electrical conductivity makes aircraft vulnerable to lightning strikes, which hit commercial aircrafts on average once per year. This makes lightning strike protection very important, and while current metallic expanded copper foils offer good protection, they increase the weight of composites. Therefore, under the CRIAQ COMP-502 project, a team of industrial partners and academic researchers are investigating new conductive coatings with the following characteristics: High electromagnetic protection, high mechanical resistance, good environmental protection, manufacturability and moderate cost. The main objectives of this thesis, as part of this project, was to determine the main characteristics, such as electrical and tribomechanical properties, of conductive coatings on composite panels. Their properties were also to be tested after destructive tests such as current injection and environmental testing. Bombardier Aerospace provided the substrate, a composite of carbon fiber reinforced epoxy matrix, and the current commercial product, a surfacing film that includes an expanded copper foil used to compare with the other coatings. The conductive coatings fabricated by the students are: silver nanoparticles inside a binding matrix (PEDOT:PSS or a mix of Epoxy and PEDOT:PSS), silvered carbon nanofibers embedded in the surfacing film, cold sprayed tin, graphene oxide functionalized with silver nanowires, and electroless plated silver. Additionally as part of the project and thesis, magnetron sputtered aluminum coated samples were fabricated. There are three main types of tests to characterize the conductive coatings: electrical, mechanical and environmental. Electrical tests consist of finding the sheet resistance and specific resistivity

  6. Evaluating the Effects of a Bird Strike Advisory System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metz, I.C.; Mühlhausen, T; Ellerbroek, J.; Hoekstra, J.M.

    2016-01-01

    Bird strikes have operational impacts and cause economic loss to the aviation industry. In the worst case, the damages resulting from bird strikes lead to crashes. The highest risk for bird strikes lies in the area below 3000 ft and thus mainly in airport environments. Despite intense efforts from

  7. effects of strike cost on economic development in nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    same firm, in other firms even in other industries (Kempner, 1980). For example ... The main purpose of this paper is to examine the strike cost and productivity in. Nigeria. ... Obnoxious Policies: Workers do go on strike when management makes obnoxious ... ASUU had to go on strike; the FGN had rescinded the decision.

  8. Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Caley

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

  9. Making inference from wildlife collision data: inferring predator absence from prey strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caley, Peter; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Barry, Simon C

    2017-01-01

    Wildlife collision data are ubiquitous, though challenging for making ecological inference due to typically irreducible uncertainty relating to the sampling process. We illustrate a new approach that is useful for generating inference from predator data arising from wildlife collisions. By simply conditioning on a second prey species sampled via the same collision process, and by using a biologically realistic numerical response functions, we can produce a coherent numerical response relationship between predator and prey. This relationship can then be used to make inference on the population size of the predator species, including the probability of extinction. The statistical conditioning enables us to account for unmeasured variation in factors influencing the runway strike incidence for individual airports and to enable valid comparisons. A practical application of the approach for testing hypotheses about the distribution and abundance of a predator species is illustrated using the hypothesized red fox incursion into Tasmania, Australia. We estimate that conditional on the numerical response between fox and lagomorph runway strikes on mainland Australia, the predictive probability of observing no runway strikes of foxes in Tasmania after observing 15 lagomorph strikes is 0.001. We conclude there is enough evidence to safely reject the null hypothesis that there is a widespread red fox population in Tasmania at a population density consistent with prey availability. The method is novel and has potential wider application.

  10. Forward to the Past: Strikes and Striking as Dialogue by other ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In Nigeria, from the colonial period to the present, the employment of strikes and protests by nationalists, Nigerian workers and civil society groups has been established as one of the potent means of conveying viewpoints, positions as well as the demand for equality, fairness, social justice and reforms. It has been used as ...

  11. A bird strike handbook for base-level managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payson, R. P.; Vance, J. D.

    1984-09-01

    To help develop more awareness about bird strikes and bird strike reduction techniques, this thesis compiled all relevant information through an extensive literature search, review of base-level documents, and personal interviews. The final product--A Bird Strike Handbook for Base-Level Managers--provides information on bird strike statistics, methods to reduce the strike hazards, and means to obtain additional assistance. The handbook is organized for use by six major base agencies: Maintenance, Civil Engineering, Operations, Air Field Management, Safety, and Air Traffic Control. An appendix follows at the end.

  12. Foundations of probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraassen, B.C. van

    1979-01-01

    The interpretation of probabilities in physical theories are considered, whether quantum or classical. The following points are discussed 1) the functions P(μ, Q) in terms of which states and propositions can be represented, are classical (Kolmogoroff) probabilities, formally speaking, 2) these probabilities are generally interpreted as themselves conditional, and the conditions are mutually incompatible where the observables are maximal and 3) testing of the theory typically takes the form of confronting the expectation values of observable Q calculated with probability measures P(μ, Q) for states μ; hence, of comparing the probabilities P(μ, Q)(E) with the frequencies of occurrence of the corresponding events. It seems that even the interpretation of quantum mechanics, in so far as it concerns what the theory says about the empirical (i.e. actual, observable) phenomena, deals with the confrontation of classical probability measures with observable frequencies. This confrontation is studied. (Auth./C.F.)

  13. Strikes and solidarity: coalfield conflict in Britain, 1889-1966

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roy Church; Quentin Outram [University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)

    2002-05-01

    This book investigates the history of strike activity in the British coal mining industry, a byword for industrial militancy since the late nineteenth century. Contents: 1. Interpreting coalfield conflict: focus and formulations; 2. Tradition and modernity: the mining industry 1889-1940; 3. Employers and workers: organizations and strategies; 4. Employers and workers: ideologies, attitudes and political orientations; 5. Configurations of strike activity; 6. Strike participation and solidarity before 1912; 7. Strikes, organization and consciousness in 1912 and after; 8. Conflictual context? The 'isolated mass' revisited; 9. Mining and modernity: size, sectionalism and solidarity; 10. The foundations of strike propensity; 11. Miners and management: agency and action; 12. Industrial relations and strikes after nationalization; 13. International perspectives; 14. Myths and realities: strikes, solidarity and 'militant miners'.

  14. The quantum probability calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauch, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    The Wigner anomaly (1932) for the joint distribution of noncompatible observables is an indication that the classical probability calculus is not applicable for quantum probabilities. It should, therefore, be replaced by another, more general calculus, which is specifically adapted to quantal systems. In this article this calculus is exhibited and its mathematical axioms and the definitions of the basic concepts such as probability field, random variable, and expectation values are given. (B.R.H)

  15. Choice Probability Generating Functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....

  16. Probability of satellite collision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  17. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  18. Handbook of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Florescu, Ionut

    2013-01-01

    THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio

  19. Tornado risk analysis at Savannah River Plant using windspeed damage thresholds and single building strike frequencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, D.H.; McDonald, J.R.; Twisdale, L.A.

    1985-01-01

    Tornado risk analysis at the Savannah River Plant has taken a two pronged approach: (1) developing a catalogue of damage thresholds as a function of windspeed for processing buildings and other representative site structures; (2) developing a method of estimating, for each building, the probability of a tornado exceeding each damage threshold. Wind resistance of building construction at SRP varies widely depending on the function of the structure. It was recognized that all tornadoes do not necessarily seriously damage buildings, but the damage thresholds were unknown. In order to evaluate the safety of existing structures and properly design new structures, an analysis of tornado resistance was conducted by J.R. McDonald on each process building at SRP and other buildings by type. Damage estimates were catalogued for each Fujita class windspeed interval and windspeeds were catalogued as a function of increased levels of damage. Tornado single point and structure specific strike probabilities for the SRP site were determined by L.A. Twisdale using the TORRISK computer code. To calculate the structure specific strike probability, a correction factor is determined from a set of curves using building area and aspect ratio (length/width relative to north) as parameters. The structure specific probability is then the product of the correction factor and the point probability. The correction factor increases as a function of building size and windspeed. For large buildings (10 5 ft 2 ) and very intense storms (250 mph), the correction factor is equal to or greater than 4. The cumulative probability of a tornado striking any building type (process, personnel, etc.) was also calculated

  20. Introduction to probability

    CERN Document Server

    Freund, John E

    1993-01-01

    Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.

  1. Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varacca, Daniele

    Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...

  2. Janus-faced probability

    CERN Document Server

    Rocchi, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    The problem of probability interpretation was long overlooked before exploding in the 20th century, when the frequentist and subjectivist schools formalized two conflicting conceptions of probability. Beyond the radical followers of the two schools, a circle of pluralist thinkers tends to reconcile the opposing concepts. The author uses two theorems in order to prove that the various interpretations of probability do not come into opposition and can be used in different contexts. The goal here is to clarify the multifold nature of probability by means of a purely mathematical approach and to show how philosophical arguments can only serve to deepen actual intellectual contrasts. The book can be considered as one of the most important contributions in the analysis of probability interpretation in the last 10-15 years.

  3. Sparse PDF Volumes for Consistent Multi-Resolution Volume Rendering

    KAUST Repository

    Sicat, Ronell Barrera; Kruger, Jens; Moller, Torsten; Hadwiger, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a new multi-resolution volume representation called sparse pdf volumes, which enables consistent multi-resolution volume rendering based on probability density functions (pdfs) of voxel neighborhoods. These pdfs are defined

  4. Probability of spent fuel transportation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClure, J.D.

    1981-07-01

    The transported volume of spent fuel, incident/accident experience and accident environment probabilities were reviewed in order to provide an estimate of spent fuel accident probabilities. In particular, the accident review assessed the accident experience for large casks of the type that could transport spent (irradiated) nuclear fuel. This review determined that since 1971, the beginning of official US Department of Transportation record keeping for accidents/incidents, there has been one spent fuel transportation accident. This information, coupled with estimated annual shipping volumes for spent fuel, indicated an estimated annual probability of a spent fuel transport accident of 5 x 10 -7 spent fuel accidents per mile. This is consistent with ordinary truck accident rates. A comparison of accident environments and regulatory test environments suggests that the probability of truck accidents exceeding regulatory test for impact is approximately 10 -9 /mile

  5. Geological Effects on Lightning Strike Distributions

    KAUST Repository

    Berdahl, J. Scott

    2016-05-16

    Recent advances in lightning detection networks allow for detailed mapping of lightning flash locations. Longstanding rumors of geological influence on cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning distribution and recent commercial claims based on such influence can now be tested empirically. If present, such influence could represent a new, cheap and efficient geophysical tool with applications in mineral, hydrothermal and oil exploration, regional geological mapping, and infrastructure planning. This project applies statistical analysis to lightning data collected by the United States National Lightning Detection Network from 2006 through 2015 in order to assess whether the huge range in electrical conductivities of geological materials plays a role in the spatial distribution of CG lightning. CG flash densities are mapped for twelve areas in the contiguous United States and compared to elevation and geology, as well as to the locations of faults, railroads and tall towers including wind turbines. Overall spatial randomness is assessed, along with spatial correlation of attributes. Negative and positive polarity lightning are considered separately and together. Topography and tower locations show a strong influence on CG distribution patterns. Geology, faults and railroads do not. This suggests that ground conductivity is not an important factor in determining lightning strike location on scales larger than current flash location accuracies, which are generally several hundred meters. Once a lightning channel is established, however, ground properties at the contact point may play a role in determining properties of the subsequent stroke.

  6. Probability and Measure

    CERN Document Server

    Billingsley, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this

  7. An integrated approach to the probabilistic assessments of aircraft strikes and structural mode of damages to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godbout, P.; Brais, A.

    1975-01-01

    The possibilities of an aircraft striking a Canadian nuclear power plant in the vicinity of an airport and of inducing structural failure modes have been evaluated. This evaluation, together with other studies, may enhance decisions in the development of general criteria for the siting of reactors near airports. The study made use, for assessment, of the probabilistic approach and made judicious applications of the finite Canadian, French, German, American and English resources that were available. The tools, techniques and methods used for achieving the above, form what may be called an integrated approach. This method of approach requires that the study be made in six consecutive steps as follows: the qualitative evaluation of having an aircraft strike on a site situated near an airport with the use of the logic model technique; the statistical data gathering on aircraft movements and accidents; evaluating the probability distribution and calculating the basic event probabilities; evaluating the probability of an aircraft strike and the application of the sensitivity approach; generating the probability density distribution versus strike impact energy, that is, the evaluation of the energy envelope; and the probabilistic evaluation of structural failure mode inducements

  8. Children on hunger strike: child abuse or legitimate protest?

    OpenAIRE

    Mok, A.; Nelson, E. A.; Murphy, J.; Hampson, A.; Hendriks, J. H.

    1996-01-01

    The issue of children on hunger strike (voluntary total fasting) has not been reported before. The World Medical Association Declaration of Tokyo 1975 and the Declaration of Malta 1991 (revised 1992) provide clinicians with guidelines for the management of adult patients on hunger strike but do not mention children. We report the management of 14 Vietnamese children, aged 1 to 12 years, who took part in a hunger strike at a refugee detention centre in Hong Kong.

  9. The effect of hand dominance on martial arts strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, Osmar Pinto; Silva, Jansen Henrique; Marzullo, Ana Carolina de Miranda; Bolander, Richard P; Bir, Cynthia A

    2012-08-01

    The main goal of this study was to compare dominant and non-dominant martial arts palm strikes under different circumstances that usually happen during martial arts and combative sports applications. Seven highly experienced (10±5 years) right hand dominant Kung Fu practitioners performed strikes with both hands, stances with left or right lead legs, and with the possibility or not of stepping towards the target (moving stance). Peak force was greater for the dominant hand strikes (1593.76±703.45 N vs. 1042.28±374.16 N; p<.001), whereas no difference was found in accuracy between the hands (p=.141). Additionally, peak force was greater for the strikes with moving stance (1448.75±686.01 N vs. 1201.80±547.98 N; p=.002) and left lead leg stance (1378.06±705.48 N vs. 1269.96±547.08 N). Furthermore, the difference in peak force between strikes with moving and stationary stances was statistically significant only for the strikes performed with a left lead leg stance (p=.007). Hand speed was higher for the dominant hand strikes (5.82±1.08 m/s vs. 5.24±0.78 m/s; p=.001) and for the strikes with moving stance (5.79±1.01 m/s vs. 5.29±0.90 m/s; p<.001). The difference in hand speed between right and left hand strikes was only significant for strikes with moving stance. In summary, our results suggest that the stronger palm strike for a right-handed practitioner is a right hand strike on a left lead leg stance moving towards the target. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Probability for statisticians

    CERN Document Server

    Shorack, Galen R

    2017-01-01

    This 2nd edition textbook offers a rigorous introduction to measure theoretic probability with particular attention to topics of interest to mathematical statisticians—a textbook for courses in probability for students in mathematical statistics. It is recommended to anyone interested in the probability underlying modern statistics, providing a solid grounding in the probabilistic tools and techniques necessary to do theoretical research in statistics. For the teaching of probability theory to post graduate statistics students, this is one of the most attractive books available. Of particular interest is a presentation of the major central limit theorems via Stein's method either prior to or alternative to a characteristic function presentation. Additionally, there is considerable emphasis placed on the quantile function as well as the distribution function. The bootstrap and trimming are both presented. Martingale coverage includes coverage of censored data martingales. The text includes measure theoretic...

  11. Concepts of probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pfeiffer, Paul E

    1979-01-01

    Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

  12. Probability and Statistical Inference

    OpenAIRE

    Prosper, Harrison B.

    2006-01-01

    These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.

  13. Probability an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Grimmett, Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...

  14. Probability in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Hemmo, Meir

    2012-01-01

    What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their  explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive. 

  15. Foot strike patterns after obstacle clearance during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten, Shane D; Stergiou, Nicholas; Hreljac, Alan; Houser, Jeremy; Blanke, Daniel; Alberts, L Russell

    2002-01-01

    Running over obstacles of sufficient height requires heel strike (HS) runners to make a transition in landing strategy to a forefoot (FF) strike, resulting in similar ground reaction force patterns to those observed while landing from a jump. Identification of the biomechanical variables that distinguish between the landing strategies may offer some insight into the reasons that the transition occurs. The purpose of this study was to investigate the difference in foot strike patterns and kinetic parameters of heel strike runners between level running and running over obstacles of various heights. Ten heel strike subjects ran at their self-selected pace under seven different conditions: unperturbed running (no obstacle) and over obstacles of six different heights (10%, 12.5%, 15%, 17.5%, 20%, and 22.5% of their standing height). The obstacle was placed directly before a Kistler force platform. Repeated measures ANOVAs were performed on the subject means of selected kinetic parameters. The statistical analysis revealed significant differences (P strike patterns were affected by the increased obstacle height. Between the 12.5% and 15% obstacle conditions, the group response changed from a heel strike to a forefoot strike pattern. At height > 15%, the pattern was more closely related to the foot strike patterns found in jumping activities. This strategy change may represent a gait transition effected as a mechanism to protect against increased impact forces. Greater involvement of the ankle and the calf muscles could have assisted in attenuating the increased impact forces while maintaining speed after clearing the obstacle.

  16. Debunking the viper's strike: harmless snakes kill a common assumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penning, David A; Sawvel, Baxter; Moon, Brad R

    2016-03-01

    To survive, organisms must avoid predation and acquire nutrients and energy. Sensory systems must correctly differentiate between potential predators and prey, and elicit behaviours that adjust distances accordingly. For snakes, strikes can serve both purposes. Vipers are thought to have the fastest strikes among snakes. However, strike performance has been measured in very few species, especially non-vipers. We measured defensive strike performance in harmless Texas ratsnakes and two species of vipers, western cottonmouths and western diamond-backed rattlesnakes, using high-speed video recordings. We show that ratsnake strike performance matches or exceeds that of vipers. In contrast with the literature over the past century, vipers do not represent the pinnacle of strike performance in snakes. Both harmless and venomous snakes can strike with very high accelerations that have two key consequences: the accelerations exceed values that can cause loss of consciousness in other animals, such as the accelerations experienced by jet pilots during extreme manoeuvres, and they make the strikes faster than the sensory and motor responses of mammalian prey and predators. Both harmless and venomous snakes can strike faster than the blink of an eye and often reach a target before it can move. © 2016 The Author(s).

  17. Probability in quantum mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Gilson

    1982-01-01

    Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.

  18. Quantum computing and probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  19. Quantum computing and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferry, David K

    2009-01-01

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction. (viewpoint)

  20. The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia basin. Volume 8: A new model for estimating survival probabilities and residualization from a release-recapture study of fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) smolts in the Snake River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

    1997-09-01

    Standard release-recapture analysis using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to estimate survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities for Snake river fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) ignore the possibility of individual fish residualizing and completing their migration in the year following tagging. These models do not utilize available capture history data from this second year and, thus, produce negatively biased estimates of survival probabilities. A new multinomial likelihood model was developed that results in biologically relevant, unbiased estimates of survival probabilities using the full two years of capture history data. This model was applied to 1995 Snake River fall chinook hatchery releases to estimate the true survival probability from one of three upstream release points (Asotin, Billy Creek, and Pittsburgh Landing) to Lower Granite Dam. In the data analyzed here, residualization is not a common physiological response and thus the use of CJS models did not result in appreciably different results than the true survival probability obtained using the new multinomial likelihood model

  1. Laboratory demonstration of lightning strike pattern on different roof tops installed with Franklin Rods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullah, Irshad; Baharom, MNR; Ahmed, H.; Luqman, HM.; Zainal, Zainab

    2017-11-01

    Protection against lightning is always a challenging job for the researcher. The consequences due to lightning on different building shapes needs a comprehensive knowledge in order to provide the information to the common man. This paper is mainly concern with lightning pattern when it strikes on the building with different shape. The work is based on the practical experimental work in high voltage laboratory. Different shapes of the scaled structures have been selected in order to investigate the equal distribution of lightning voltage. The equal distribution of lightning voltage will provide the maximum probability of lightning strike on air terminal of the selected shapes. Building shapes have a very important role in lightning protection. The shapes of the roof tops have different geometry and the Franklin rod installation is also varies with changing the shape of the roof top. According to the ambient weather condition of Malaysia high voltage impulse is applied on the lightning rod installed on different geometrical shape. The equal distribution of high voltage impulse is obtained as the geometry of the scaled structure is identical and the air gap for all the tested object is kept the same. This equal distribution of the lightning voltage also proves that the probability of lightning strike is on the corner and the edges of the building structure.

  2. The enigma of probability and physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayants, L.

    1984-01-01

    This volume contains a coherent exposition of the elements of two unique sciences: probabilistics (science of probability) and probabilistic physics (application of probabilistics to physics). Proceeding from a key methodological principle, it starts with the disclosure of the true content of probability and the interrelation between probability theory and experimental statistics. This makes is possible to introduce a proper order in all the sciences dealing with probability and, by conceiving the real content of statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics in particular, to construct both as two interconnected domains of probabilistic physics. Consistent theories of kinetics of physical transformations, decay processes, and intramolecular rearrangements are also outlined. The interrelation between the electromagnetic field, photons, and the theoretically discovered subatomic particle 'emon' is considered. Numerous internal imperfections of conventional probability theory, statistical physics, and quantum physics are exposed and removed - quantum physics no longer needs special interpretation. EPR, Bohm, and Bell paradoxes are easily resolved, among others. (Auth.)

  3. The perception of probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. A decade of U.S. Air Force bat strikes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peurach, Suzanne C.; Dove, Carla J.; Stepko, Laura

    2009-01-01

    From 1997 through 2007, 821 bat strikes were reported to the U.S. Air Force (USAF) Safety Center by aircraft personnel or ground crew and sent to the National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, for identification. Many samples were identified by macroscopic and or microscopic comparisons with bat specimens housed in the museum and augmented during the last 2 years by DNA analysis. Bat remains from USAF strikes during this period were received at the museum from 40 states in the United States and from 20 countries. We confirmed that 46% of the strikes were caused by bats, but we did not identify them further; we identified 5% only to the family or genus level, and 49% to the species level. Fifty-five of the 101 bat-strike samples submitted for DNA analysis have been identified to the species level. Twenty-five bat species have been recorded striking USAF planes worldwide. The Brazilian free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis; n = 173) is the species most commonly identified in USAF strike impacts, followed by the red bat (Lasiurus borealis; n = 83). Bat strikes peak during the spring and fall, with >57% occurring from August through October; 82% of the reports that included time of strike were recorded between 2100 and 0900 hours. More than 12% of the bat strikes were reported at >300 m above ground level (AGL). Although $825,000 and >50% of this sum was attributable to 5 bat-strike incidents. Only 5 bats from the 10 most damaging bat strikes were identified to the species level, either because we did not receive remains with the reports or the sample was insufficient for identification.

  5. Irreversibility and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    The mathematical entropy - unlike physical entropy - is simply a measure of uniformity for probability distributions in general. So understood, conditional entropies have the same logical structure as conditional probabilities. If, as is sometimes supposed, conditional probabilities are time-reversible, then so are conditional entropies and, paradoxically, both then share this symmetry with physical equations of motion. The paradox is, of course that probabilities yield a direction to time both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics, while the equations of motion do not. The supposed time-reversibility of both conditionals seems also to involve a form of retrocausality that is related to, but possibly not the same as, that described by Costa de Beaurgard. The retrocausality is paradoxically at odds with the generally presumed irreversibility of the quantum mechanical measurement process. Further paradox emerges if the supposed time-reversibility of the conditionals is linked with the idea that the thermodynamic entropy is the same thing as 'missing information' since this confounds the thermodynamic and mathematical entropies. However, it is shown that irreversibility is a formal consequence of conditional entropies and, hence, of conditional probabilities also. 8 refs. (Author)

  6. The pleasures of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Isaac, Richard

    1995-01-01

    The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al­ most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more­ these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re­ moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac­ ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...

  7. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  8. Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability

    OpenAIRE

    Melucci, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...

  9. Martial arts striking hand peak acceleration, accuracy and consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, Osmar Pinto; Marzullo, Ana Carolina De Miranda; Bolander, Richard P; Bir, Cynthia A

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this paper was to investigate the possible trade-off between peak hand acceleration and accuracy and consistency of hand strikes performed by martial artists of different training experiences. Ten male martial artists with training experience ranging from one to nine years volunteered to participate in the experiment. Each participant performed 12 maximum effort goal-directed strikes. Hand acceleration during the strikes was obtained using a tri-axial accelerometer block. A pressure sensor matrix was used to determine the accuracy and consistency of the strikes. Accuracy was estimated by the radial distance between the centroid of each subject's 12 strikes and the target, whereas consistency was estimated by the square root of the 12 strikes mean squared distance from their centroid. We found that training experience was significantly correlated to hand peak acceleration prior to impact (r(2)=0.456, p =0.032) and accuracy (r(2)=0. 621, p=0.012). These correlations suggest that more experienced participants exhibited higher hand peak accelerations and at the same time were more accurate. Training experience, however, was not correlated to consistency (r(2)=0.085, p=0.413). Overall, our results suggest that martial arts training may lead practitioners to achieve higher striking hand accelerations with better accuracy and no change in striking consistency.

  10. Orthotic intervention in forefoot and rearfoot strike running patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stackhouse, Carrie Laughton; Davis, Irene McClay; Hamill, Joseph

    2004-01-01

    To compare the differential effect of custom orthoses on the lower extremity mechanics of a forefoot and rearfoot strike pattern. Fifteen subjects ran with both a forefoot and a rearfoot strike pattern with and without orthoses. Lower extremity kinematic and kinetic variables were compared between strike pattern and orthotic conditions. Foot orthoses have been shown to be effective in controlling excessive rearfoot motion in rearfoot strikers. The effect of orthotic intervention on rearfoot motion in forefoot strikers has not been previously reported. Five trials were collected for each condition. Peak rearfoot eversion, eversion excursion, eversion velocity, peak inversion moment, and inversion work were compared between conditions. Kinematic variables in the sagittal plane of the rearfoot and in the frontal and sagittal plane of the knee were also determined. Increased rearfoot excursions and velocities and decreased peak eversion were noted in the forefoot strike pattern compared to the rearfoot strike pattern. Orthotic intervention, however,did not significantly change rearfoot motion in either strike pattern. Reductions in internal rotation and abduction of the knee were noted with orthotic intervention. Foot orthoses do not differentially effect rearfoot motion of a rearfoot strike and a forefoot strike running pattern. Orthotic intervention has a larger and more systematic effect on rearfoot kinetics compared to rearfoot kinematics.

  11. Teaching Striking Skills in Elementary Physical Education Using Woodball

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Seung Ho; Lee, Jihyun

    2017-01-01

    Object control (OC) skills are a part of fundamental motor skills and basic functional skills, which work as a prerequisite to becoming a skilled performer in many sports. Of various OC skills, striking is one of the most difficult to master due to a variety of interrelated movement components. A form of vertical or underarm striking is a more…

  12. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications....... The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....

  13. Probability and stochastic modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Rotar, Vladimir I

    2012-01-01

    Basic NotionsSample Space and EventsProbabilitiesCounting TechniquesIndependence and Conditional ProbabilityIndependenceConditioningThe Borel-Cantelli TheoremDiscrete Random VariablesRandom Variables and VectorsExpected ValueVariance and Other Moments. Inequalities for DeviationsSome Basic DistributionsConvergence of Random Variables. The Law of Large NumbersConditional ExpectationGenerating Functions. Branching Processes. Random Walk RevisitedBranching Processes Generating Functions Branching Processes Revisited More on Random WalkMarkov ChainsDefinitions and Examples. Probability Distributions of Markov ChainsThe First Step Analysis. Passage TimesVariables Defined on a Markov ChainErgodicity and Stationary DistributionsA Classification of States and ErgodicityContinuous Random VariablesContinuous DistributionsSome Basic Distributions Continuous Multivariate Distributions Sums of Independent Random Variables Conditional Distributions and ExpectationsDistributions in the General Case. SimulationDistribution F...

  14. Collision Probability Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1998-01-01

    It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving...

  15. Estimating Subjective Probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.

    2014-01-01

    either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments...... that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still...

  16. Introduction to imprecise probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin

  17. Classic Problems of Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Gorroochurn, Prakash

    2012-01-01

    "A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin

  18. Strike kinematics and performance in juvenile ball pythons (Python regius).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryerson, William G; Tan, Weimin

    2017-08-01

    The rapid strike of snakes has interested researchers for decades. Although most work has focused on the strike performance of vipers, recent work has shown that other snakes outside of the Viperidae can strike with the same velocities and accelerations. However, to date all of these examples focus on performance in adult snakes. Here, we use high-speed video to measure the strike kinematics and performance of 10 juvenile (pythons, Python regius. We find that juvenile P. regius strike at levels comparable to larger snakes, but with shorter durations and over shorter distances. We conclude that the juvenile P. regius maintain performance likely through manipulation of the axial musculature and accompanying elastic tissues, and that this is a first step to understanding ontogenetic changes in behavior and a potential avenue for understanding how captivity may also impact behavior. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. Strike Point Control on EAST Using an Isoflux Control Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xing Zhe; Xiao Bingjia; Luo Zhengping; Walker, M. L.; Humphreys, D. A.

    2015-01-01

    For the advanced tokamak, the particle deposition and thermal load on the divertor is a big challenge. By moving the strike points on divertor target plates, the position of particle deposition and thermal load can be shifted. We could adjust the Poloidal Field (PF) coil current to achieve the strike point position feedback control. Using isoflux control method, the strike point position can be controlled by controlling the X point position. On the basis of experimental data, we establish relational expressions between X point position and strike point position. Benchmark experiments are carried out to validate the correctness and robustness of the control methods. The strike point position is successfully controlled following our command in the EAST operation. (paper)

  20. Expertise of using striking techniques for power stroke in badminton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qin

    2013-10-01

    Two striking techniques (fast swing and angled striking) were examined to see if they allowed effective use of string tension for the power stroke in badminton. 12 participants (4 novices, 4 recreational, and 4 expert badminton players) were recorded by a fast-speed camera while striking a shuttlecock with racquets of 8 different string tensions. The peak speed of the shuttlecock, the racquet angle and the shuttlecock angle were analyzed. The results showed that expert players succeeded in using both striking techniques to overcome the constraint of string tension and produce a consistently superior stroke. Failure to use either striking technique resulted in inferior performance that was constrained by string tension. Expertise in badminton allows the necessary motor adjustments based on the affordance perception of the string tension.

  1. Analyzing structural variations along strike in a deep-water thrust belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totake, Yukitsugu; Butler, Robert W. H.; Bond, Clare E.; Aziz, Aznan

    2018-03-01

    We characterize a deep-water fold-thrust arrays imaged by a high-resolution 3D seismic dataset in the offshore NW Borneo, Malaysia, to understand the kinematics behind spatial arrangement of structural variations throughout the fold-thrust system. The seismic volume used covers two sub-parallel fold trains associated with a series of fore-thrusts and back-thrusts. We measured fault heave, shortening value, fold geometries (forelimb dip, interlimb angle and crest depth) along strike in individual fold trains. Heave plot on strike projection allows to identify individual thrust segments showing semi-elliptical to triangular to bimodal patterns, and linkages of these segments. The linkage sites are marked by local minima in cumulative heave. These local heave minima are compensated by additional structures, such as small imbricate thrusts and tight folds indicated by large forelimb dip and small interlimb angle. Complementary profiles of the shortening amount for the two fold trains result in smoother gradient of total shortening across the structures. We interpret this reflects kinematic interaction between two fold-thrust trains. This type of along-strike variation analysis provides comprehensive understanding of a fold-thrust system and may provide an interpretative strategy for inferring the presence of complex multiple faults in less well-imaged parts of seismic volumes.

  2. Wavelet transform analysis of electromyography kung fu strikes data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, Osmar Pinto; Marzullo, Ana Carolina de Miranda

    2009-11-01

    In martial arts and contact sports strikes are performed at near maximum speeds. For that reason, electromyography (EMG) analysis of such movements is non-trivial. This paper has three main goals: firstly, to investigate the differences in the EMG activity of muscles during strikes performed with and without impacts; secondly, to assess the advantages of using Sum of Significant Power (SSP) values instead of root mean square (rms) values when analyzing EMG data; and lastly to introduce a new method of calculating median frequency values using wavelet transforms (WMDF). EMG data of the deltoid anterior (DA), triceps brachii (TB) and brachioradialis (BR) muscles were collected from eight Kung Fu practitioners during strikes performed with and without impacts. SSP results indicated significant higher muscle activity (p = 0.023) for the strikes with impact. WMDF results, on the other hand, indicated significant lower values (p = 0. 007) for the strikes with impact. SSP results presented higher sensitivity than rms to quantify important signal differences and, at the same time, presented lower inter-subject coefficient of variations. The result of increase in SSP values and decrease in WMDF may suggest better synchronization of motor units for the strikes with impact performed by the experienced Kung Fu practitioners. Key PointsThe results show higher muscle activity and lower electromyography median frequencies for strikes with impact compared to strikes without.SSP results presented higher sensitivity and lower inter-subject coefficient of variations than rms results.Kung Fu palm strikes with impact may present better motor units' synchronization than strikes without.

  3. Counterexamples in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, Jordan M

    2013-01-01

    While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.

  4. Epistemology and Probability

    CERN Document Server

    Plotnitsky, Arkady

    2010-01-01

    Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general

  5. Transition probabilities for atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.K.

    1980-01-01

    Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods

  6. The Teacher Strike: School District Protection Procedures. A Manual for School District Officials on How to Handle a Teachers' Strike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Igoe, Joseph A.; DiRocco, Anthony P.

    This booklet is designed to give practical and realistic advice to school district officials faced with the possibility of a teachers' strike. It is intended for use both by school district administrators and school board members. The booklet is organized into four sections that focus in turn on signs of a pending teachers' strike, union…

  7. Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2014-07-01

    The systematic biases seen in people's probability judgments are typically taken as evidence that people do not use the rules of probability theory when reasoning about probability but instead use heuristics, which sometimes yield reasonable judgments and sometimes yield systematic biases. This view has had a major impact in economics, law, medicine, and other fields; indeed, the idea that people cannot reason with probabilities has become a truism. We present a simple alternative to this view, where people reason about probability according to probability theory but are subject to random variation or noise in the reasoning process. In this account the effect of noise is canceled for some probabilistic expressions. Analyzing data from 2 experiments, we find that, for these expressions, people's probability judgments are strikingly close to those required by probability theory. For other expressions, this account produces systematic deviations in probability estimates. These deviations explain 4 reliable biases in human probabilistic reasoning (conservatism, subadditivity, conjunction, and disjunction fallacies). These results suggest that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and that biases in those judgments are due to the effects of random noise. (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  8. Negative probability in the framework of combined probability

    OpenAIRE

    Burgin, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...

  9. Study on conditional probability of surface rupture: effect of fault dip and width of seismogenic layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, N.

    2017-12-01

    The conditional probability of surface ruptures is affected by various factors, such as shallow material properties, process of earthquakes, ground motions and so on. Toda (2013) pointed out difference of the conditional probability of strike and reverse fault by considering the fault dip and width of seismogenic layer. This study evaluated conditional probability of surface rupture based on following procedures. Fault geometry was determined from the randomly generated magnitude based on The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (2017) method. If the defined fault plane was not saturated in the assumed width of the seismogenic layer, the fault plane depth was randomly provided within the seismogenic layer. The logistic analysis was performed to two data sets: surface displacement calculated by dislocation methods (Wang et al., 2003) from the defined source fault, the depth of top of the defined source fault. The estimated conditional probability from surface displacement indicated higher probability of reverse faults than that of strike faults, and this result coincides to previous similar studies (i.e. Kagawa et al., 2004; Kataoka and Kusakabe, 2005). On the contrary, the probability estimated from the depth of the source fault indicated higher probability of thrust faults than that of strike and reverse faults, and this trend is similar to the conditional probability of PFDHA results (Youngs et al., 2003; Moss and Ross, 2011). The probability of combined simulated results of thrust and reverse also shows low probability. The worldwide compiled reverse fault data include low fault dip angle earthquake. On the other hand, in the case of Japanese reverse fault, there is possibility that the conditional probability of reverse faults with less low dip angle earthquake shows low probability and indicates similar probability of strike fault (i.e. Takao et al., 2013). In the future, numerical simulation by considering failure condition of surface by the source

  10. Determine the Foot Strike Pattern Using Inertial Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzyy-Yuang Shiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available From biomechanical point of view, strike pattern plays an important role in preventing potential injury risk in running. Traditionally, strike pattern determination was conducted by using 3D motion analysis system with cameras. However, the procedure is costly and not convenient. With the rapid development of technology, sensors have been applied in sport science field lately. Therefore, this study was designed to determine the algorithm that can identify landing strategies with a wearable sensor. Six healthy male participants were recruited to perform heel and forefoot strike strategies at 7, 10, and 13 km/h speeds. The kinematic data were collected by Vicon 3D motion analysis system and 2 inertial measurement units (IMU attached on the dorsal side of both shoes. The data of each foot strike were gathered for pitch angle and strike index analysis. Comparing the strike index from IMU with the pitch angle from Vicon system, our results showed that both signals exhibited highly correlated changes between different strike patterns in the sagittal plane (r=0.98. Based on the findings, the IMU sensors showed potential capabilities and could be extended beyond the context of sport science to other fields, including clinical applications.

  11. Green, Brown, and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Chung, Kai Lai

    1995-01-01

    This volume shows modern probabilistic methods in action: Brownian Motion Process as applied to the electrical phenomena investigated by Green et al., beginning with the Newton-Coulomb potential and ending with solutions by first and last exits of Brownian paths from conductors.

  12. Contributions to quantum probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a finite set can occur as the outcome

  13. Bayesian Probability Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  14. Contributions to quantum probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2010-06-25

    Chapter 1: On the existence of quantum representations for two dichotomic measurements. Under which conditions do outcome probabilities of measurements possess a quantum-mechanical model? This kind of problem is solved here for the case of two dichotomic von Neumann measurements which can be applied repeatedly to a quantum system with trivial dynamics. The solution uses methods from the theory of operator algebras and the theory of moment problems. The ensuing conditions reveal surprisingly simple relations between certain quantum-mechanical probabilities. It also shown that generally, none of these relations holds in general probabilistic models. This result might facilitate further experimental discrimination between quantum mechanics and other general probabilistic theories. Chapter 2: Possibilistic Physics. I try to outline a framework for fundamental physics where the concept of probability gets replaced by the concept of possibility. Whereas a probabilistic theory assigns a state-dependent probability value to each outcome of each measurement, a possibilistic theory merely assigns one of the state-dependent labels ''possible to occur'' or ''impossible to occur'' to each outcome of each measurement. It is argued that Spekkens' combinatorial toy theory of quantum mechanics is inconsistent in a probabilistic framework, but can be regarded as possibilistic. Then, I introduce the concept of possibilistic local hidden variable models and derive a class of possibilistic Bell inequalities which are violated for the possibilistic Popescu-Rohrlich boxes. The chapter ends with a philosophical discussion on possibilistic vs. probabilistic. It can be argued that, due to better falsifiability properties, a possibilistic theory has higher predictive power than a probabilistic one. Chapter 3: The quantum region for von Neumann measurements with postselection. It is determined under which conditions a probability distribution on a

  15. Waste Package Misload Probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a

  16. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  17. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  18. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  19. Retrocausality and conditional probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard has proposed that physical causality be identified with conditional probability. The proposal is shown to be vulnerable on two accounts. The first, though mathematically trivial, seems to be decisive so far as the current formulation of the proposal is concerned. The second lies in a physical inconsistency which seems to have its source in a Copenhagenlike disavowal of realism in quantum mechanics. 6 refs. (Author)

  20. "Thunderstruck": penetrating thoracic injury from lightning strike.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Waes, Oscar J F; van de Woestijne, Pieter C; Halm, Jens A

    2014-04-01

    Lightning strike victims are rarely presented at an emergency department. Burns are often the primary focus. This case report describes the improvised explosive device like-injury to the thorax due to lightning strike and its treatment, which has not been described prior in (kerauno)medicine. Penetrating injury due to blast from lightning strike is extremely rare. These "shrapnel" injuries should however be ruled out in all patients struck by lightning. Copyright © 2013 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Strike action by nurses in South Africa: A value clarification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Muller

    2001-09-01

    Full Text Available The Labour Relations Act (South Africa, 1991 made provision for protected strike action by employees, subject to certain conditions, procedures and negotiated agreements. This led to the removal of the strike clause in the Nursing Act (South Africa, 1992. The labour rights of all citizens are entrenched in the Constitution of the country (South Africa, 1996. Participation in strike action by the nurse/ midwife, regardless of the legal requirements and specifications, does, however, pose an ethical question. It is therefore necessary to conduct a value clarification on strike action by nurses in South Africa. The purpose of this research is to explore and describe the perceived values of participants from an accessible population on this phenomenon. A qualitative, exploratory and descriptive research design was deployed. The perceived values of nurses on strike action were collected by means of an openended questionnaire/sketch. Over a period of three years a purposive and convenient sampling method was used, involving all the enrolled post basic nursing/midwifery students/ learners at a particular Nursing Education Institution. The justification of the sample was further enhanced by also collecting data on the participants’ age and provincial distribution location. Although a 63% sample realisation (of the accessible population was achieved, this represents only 1,5% of the registered nursing/midwifery population in the country. A descriptive analysis of the participants’ age and provincial distribution was undertaken, as well as a content analysis of their perceived values on strike action. The mean age of the participants was 48 years, which could be attributed to the fact that most of them were enrolled for a post-basic Diploma in Community Nursing Science. Most of the responses (52,7% were against strike action and 32,5% supported strike action by nurses as a constitutional and legal right. A fairly substantial number of participants (14

  2. Physicians' strikes and the competing bases of physicians' moral obligations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDougall, D Robert

    2013-09-01

    Many authors have addressed the morality of physicians' strikes on the assumption that medical practice is morally different from other kinds of occupations. This article analyzes three prominent theoretical accounts that attempt to ground such special moral obligations for physicians--practice-based accounts, utilitarian accounts, and social contract accounts--and assesses their applicability to the problem of the morality of strikes. After critiquing these views, it offers a fourth view grounding special moral obligations in voluntary commitments, and explains why this is a preferable basis for understanding physicians' moral obligations in general and especially as pertaining to strikes.

  3. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  4. Qubit-qutrit separability-probability ratios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slater, Paul B.

    2005-01-01

    Paralleling our recent computationally intensive (quasi-Monte Carlo) work for the case N=4 (e-print quant-ph/0308037), we undertake the task for N=6 of computing to high numerical accuracy, the formulas of Sommers and Zyczkowski (e-print quant-ph/0304041) for the (N 2 -1)-dimensional volume and (N 2 -2)-dimensional hyperarea of the (separable and nonseparable) NxN density matrices, based on the Bures (minimal monotone) metric--and also their analogous formulas (e-print quant-ph/0302197) for the (nonmonotone) flat Hilbert-Schmidt metric. With the same seven 10 9 well-distributed ('low-discrepancy') sample points, we estimate the unknown volumes and hyperareas based on five additional (monotone) metrics of interest, including the Kubo-Mori and Wigner-Yanase. Further, we estimate all of these seven volume and seven hyperarea (unknown) quantities when restricted to the separable density matrices. The ratios of separable volumes (hyperareas) to separable plus nonseparable volumes (hyperareas) yield estimates of the separability probabilities of generically rank-6 (rank-5) density matrices. The (rank-6) separability probabilities obtained based on the 35-dimensional volumes appear to be--independently of the metric (each of the seven inducing Haar measure) employed--twice as large as those (rank-5 ones) based on the 34-dimensional hyperareas. (An additional estimate--33.9982--of the ratio of the rank-6 Hilbert-Schmidt separability probability to the rank-4 one is quite clearly close to integral too.) The doubling relationship also appears to hold for the N=4 case for the Hilbert-Schmidt metric, but not the others. We fit simple exact formulas to our estimates of the Hilbert-Schmidt separable volumes and hyperareas in both the N=4 and N=6 cases

  5. Ethical and legal consideration of prisoner's hunger strike in Serbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alempijevic, Djordje; Pavlekic, Snezana; Jecmenica, Dragan; Nedeljkov, Aleksandra; Jankovic, Milos

    2011-03-01

    Hunger strike of prisoners and detainees remains a major human rights and ethical issue for medical professionals. We are reporting on a case of a 48-year-old male sentenced prisoner, intravenous heroin user, who went on a hunger strike and died 15 days later. Throughout the fasting period, the prisoner, who was capable of decision making, refused any medical examination. Autopsy findings were not supporting prolonged starvation, while toxicology revealed benzodiazepines and opiates in blood and urine. Cause of death was given as "heroin intoxication" in keeping with detection of 6-MAM. Legal and ethical issues pertinent to medical examination and treatment of prisoners on hunger strike are explored in accordance with legislation and professional ethical standards in Serbia. A recommendation for the best autopsy practice in deaths following hunger strike has been made. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  6. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes 1950-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  7. BIRD/WILDLIFE STRIKE CONTROL FOR SAFER AIR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    2012-06-05

    Jun 5, 2012 ... Several factors including lack of adequate data, shortage of funds, inadequate training of staff and lack of ... Keywords: bird/wildlife, strike, aviation, hazard, control. Introduction ..... implications of some human activities within.

  8. 2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Significant U.S. Hurricane Strikes poster is one of two special edition posters for the Atlantic Hurricanes. This beautiful poster contains two sets of...

  9. Comparison of force, power, and striking efficiency for a Kung Fu strike performed by novice and experienced practitioners: preliminary analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, Osmar Pinto; Magini, Marcio; Saba, Marcelo M F; Pacheco, Marcos Tadeu Tavares

    2008-02-01

    This paper presents a comparison of force, power, and efficiency values calculated from Kung Fu Yau-Man palm strikes, when performed by 7 experienced and 6 novice men. They performed 5 palm strikes to a freestanding basketball, recorded by high-speed camera at 1000 Hz. Nonparametric comparisons and correlations showed experienced practitioners presented larger values of mean muscle force, mean impact force, mean muscle power, mean impact power, and mean striking efficiency, as is noted in evidence obtained for other martial arts. Also, an interesting result was that for experienced Kung Fu practitioners, muscle power was linearly correlated with impact power (p = .98) but not for the novice practitioners (p = .46).

  10. Effects of footwear and strike type on running economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perl, Daniel P; Daoud, Adam I; Lieberman, Daniel E

    2012-07-01

    This study tests if running economy differs in minimal shoes versus standard running shoes with cushioned elevated heels and arch supports and in forefoot versus rearfoot strike gaits. We measured the cost of transport (mL O(2)·kg(-1)·m(-1)) in subjects who habitually run in minimal shoes or barefoot while they were running at 3.0 m·s(-1) on a treadmill during forefoot and rearfoot striking while wearing minimal and standard shoes, controlling for shoe mass and stride frequency. Force and kinematic data were collected when subjects were shod and barefoot to quantify differences in knee flexion, arch strain, plantar flexor force production, and Achilles tendon-triceps surae strain. After controlling for stride frequency and shoe mass, runners were 2.41% more economical in the minimal-shoe condition when forefoot striking and 3.32% more economical in the minimal-shoe condition when rearfoot striking (P forefoot and rearfoot striking did not differ significantly in cost for either minimal- or standard-shoe running. Arch strain was not measured in the shod condition but was significantly greater during forefoot than rearfoot striking when barefoot. Plantar flexor force output was significantly higher in forefoot than in rearfoot striking and in barefoot than in shod running. Achilles tendon-triceps surae strain and knee flexion were also lower in barefoot than in standard-shoe running. Minimally shod runners are modestly but significantly more economical than traditionally shod runners regardless of strike type, after controlling for shoe mass and stride frequency. The likely cause of this difference is more elastic energy storage and release in the lower extremity during minimal-shoe running.

  11. Probability mapping of contaminants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); McGraw, M.A. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Istok, J.D. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Sigda, J.M. [New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds).

  12. Probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.; Kaplan, P.G.; McGraw, M.A.; Istok, J.D.; Sigda, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)

  13. Probability of causation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jose, D.E.

    1988-01-01

    Probability of causation (PC) is sometimes viewed as a great improvement by those persons who are not happy with the present rulings of courts in radiation cases. The author does not share that hope and expects that PC will not play a significant role in these issues for at least the next decade. If it is ever adopted in a legislative compensation scheme, it will be used in a way that is unlikely to please most scientists. Consequently, PC is a false hope for radiation scientists, and its best contribution may well lie in some of the spin-off effects, such as an influence on medical practice

  14. Generalized Probability Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Souto Martinez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available From the integration of nonsymmetrical hyperboles, a one-parameter generalization of the logarithmic function is obtained. Inverting this function, one obtains the generalized exponential function. Motivated by the mathematical curiosity, we show that these generalized functions are suitable to generalize some probability density functions (pdfs. A very reliable rank distribution can be conveniently described by the generalized exponential function. Finally, we turn the attention to the generalization of one- and two-tail stretched exponential functions. We obtain, as particular cases, the generalized error function, the Zipf-Mandelbrot pdf, the generalized Gaussian and Laplace pdf. Their cumulative functions and moments were also obtained analytically.

  15. Probability in High Dimension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-30

    precisely the content of the following result. The price we pay is that the assumption that A is a packing in (F, k ·k1) is too weak to make this happen...Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes. In: École d’Été de Probabilités de Saint- Flour , IV-1974, pp. 1–96. Lecture Notes in...Lectures on probability theory and statistics (Saint- Flour , 1994), Lecture Notes in Math., vol. 1648, pp. 165–294. Springer, Berlin (1996) 50. Ledoux

  16. WAVELET TRANSFORM ANALYSIS OF ELECTROMYOGRAPHY KUNG FU STRIKES DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Carolina de Miranda Marzullo

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In martial arts and contact sports strikes are performed at near maximum speeds. For that reason, electromyography (EMG analysis of such movements is non-trivial. This paper has three main goals: firstly, to investigate the differences in the EMG activity of muscles during strikes performed with and without impacts; secondly, to assess the advantages of using Sum of Significant Power (SSP values instead of root mean square (rms values when analyzing EMG data; and lastly to introduce a new method of calculating median frequency values using wavelet transforms (WMDF. EMG data of the deltoid anterior (DA, triceps brachii (TB and brachioradialis (BR muscles were collected from eight Kung Fu practitioners during strikes performed with and without impacts. SSP results indicated significant higher muscle activity (p = 0.023 for the strikes with impact. WMDF results, on the other hand, indicated significant lower values (p = 0. 007 for the strikes with impact. SSP results presented higher sensitivity than rms to quantify important signal differences and, at the same time, presented lower inter-subject coefficient of variations. The result of increase in SSP values and decrease in WMDF may suggest better synchronization of motor units for the strikes with impact performed by the experienced Kung Fu practitioners

  17. VARIATION OF STRIKE INCENTIVES IN DEEP REDUCTIONS; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.H. CANAVAN

    2001-01-01

    This note studies the sensitivity of strike incentives to deep offensive force reductions using exchange, cost, and game theoretic decision models derived and discussed in companion reports. As forces fall, weapon allocations shift from military to high value targets, with the shift being half complete at about 1,000 weapons. By 500 weapons, the first and second strikes are almost totally on high value. The dominant cost for striking first is that of damage to one's high value, which is near total absent other constraints, and hence proportional to preferences for survival of high value. Changes in military costs are largely offsetting, so total first strike costs change little. The resulting costs at decision nodes are well above the costs of inaction, so the preferred course is inaction for all offensive reductions studied. As the dominant cost for striking first is proportional to the preference for survival of high value. There is a wide gap between the first strike cost and that of inaction for the parameters studied here. These conclusions should be insensitive to significant reductions in the preference for survival of high value, which is the most sensitive parameter

  18. Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study. Volume 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piascik, Robert S.; Prosser, William H.

    2011-01-01

    The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the findings and recommendations from the NESC assessment.

  19. Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study. Volume 2; Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piascik, Robert S.; Prosser, William H.

    2011-01-01

    The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the Appendices to the main report.

  20. Fabrication and assessment of a thin flexible surface coating made of pristine graphene for lightning strike protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, B. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0133 (United States); Soltani, S.A. [Department of Aerospace Engineering, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0133 (United States); Le, L.N. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0133 (United States); Asmatulu, R., E-mail: ramazan.asmatulu@wichita.edu [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Wichita State University, 1845 Fairmount St., Wichita, KS 67260-0133 (United States)

    2017-02-15

    A thin flexible coating made of pristine graphene was fabricated and applied on the surface of a commercial carbon fiber epoxy prepreg laminate to protect it against the lightning strike. To assess the coating’s effectiveness, the coated laminate was subjected to the simulated lightning strike as well as the electromagnetic interference shielding effectiveness (EMI SE) testing. It was observed that the damaged area and volume in the coated laminate were reduced by 94% and 96%, respectively, as compared to the laminate without the coating. Moreover, the coated laminate had an average EMI SE of 51 dB over 100–2000 MHz range, 55 dB over 8–12 GHz range, and 60 dB over 12–18 GHz range marking 22%, 44%, and 49% improvement in EMI SE for each frequency range, respectively. The results indicate a great potential for the developed coating to protect the commercially available prepreg composites against the lightning strike.

  1. Fabrication and assessment of a thin flexible surface coating made of pristine graphene for lightning strike protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, B.; Soltani, S.A.; Le, L.N.; Asmatulu, R.

    2017-01-01

    A thin flexible coating made of pristine graphene was fabricated and applied on the surface of a commercial carbon fiber epoxy prepreg laminate to protect it against the lightning strike. To assess the coating’s effectiveness, the coated laminate was subjected to the simulated lightning strike as well as the electromagnetic interference shielding effectiveness (EMI SE) testing. It was observed that the damaged area and volume in the coated laminate were reduced by 94% and 96%, respectively, as compared to the laminate without the coating. Moreover, the coated laminate had an average EMI SE of 51 dB over 100–2000 MHz range, 55 dB over 8–12 GHz range, and 60 dB over 12–18 GHz range marking 22%, 44%, and 49% improvement in EMI SE for each frequency range, respectively. The results indicate a great potential for the developed coating to protect the commercially available prepreg composites against the lightning strike.

  2. Probable maximum flood control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGabriele, C.E.; Wu, C.L.

    1991-11-01

    This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility

  3. Marrakesh International Conference on Probability and Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Ouassou, Idir; Rachdi, Mustapha

    2015-01-01

    This volume, which highlights recent advances in statistical methodology and applications, is divided into two main parts. The first part presents theoretical results on estimation techniques in functional statistics, while the second examines three key areas of application: estimation problems in queuing theory, an application in signal processing, and the copula approach to epidemiologic modelling. The book’s peer-reviewed contributions are based on papers originally presented at the Marrakesh International Conference on Probability and Statistics held in December 2013.

  4. Interaction probability value calculi for some scintillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Torano Martinez, E.; Grau Malonda, A.

    1989-01-01

    Interaction probabilities for 17 gamma-ray energies between 1 and 1.000 KeV have been computed and tabulated. The tables may be applied to the case of cylindrical vials with radius 1,25 cm and volumes 5, 10 and 15 ml. Toluene, Toluene/Alcohol, Dioxane-Naftalen, PCS, INSTAGEL and HISAFE II scintillators are considered. Graphical results for 10 ml are also given. (Author) 11 refs

  5. Consistent probabilities in loop quantum cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Craig, David A; Singh, Parampreet

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental issue for any quantum cosmological theory is to specify how probabilities can be assigned to various quantum events or sequences of events such as the occurrence of singularities or bounces. In previous work, we have demonstrated how this issue can be successfully addressed within the consistent histories approach to quantum theory for Wheeler–DeWitt-quantized cosmological models. In this work, we generalize that analysis to the exactly solvable loop quantization of a spatially flat, homogeneous and isotropic cosmology sourced with a massless, minimally coupled scalar field known as sLQC. We provide an explicit, rigorous and complete decoherent-histories formulation for this model and compute the probabilities for the occurrence of a quantum bounce versus a singularity. Using the scalar field as an emergent internal time, we show for generic states that the probability for a singularity to occur in this model is zero, and that of a bounce is unity, complementing earlier studies of the expectation values of the volume and matter density in this theory. We also show from the consistent histories point of view that all states in this model, whether quantum or classical, achieve arbitrarily large volume in the limit of infinite ‘past’ or ‘future’ scalar ‘time’, in the sense that the wave function evaluated at any arbitrary fixed value of the volume vanishes in that limit. Finally, we briefly discuss certain misconceptions concerning the utility of the consistent histories approach in these models. (paper)

  6. EARLY HISTORY OF GEOMETRIC PROBABILITY AND STEREOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Hykšová

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides an account of the history of geometric probability and stereology from the time of Newton to the early 20th century. It depicts the development of two parallel ways: on one hand, the theory of geometric probability was formed with minor attention paid to other applications than those concerning spatial chance games. On the other hand, practical rules of the estimation of area or volume fraction and other characteristics, easily deducible from geometric probability theory, were proposed without the knowledge of this branch. A special attention is paid to the paper of J.-É. Barbier published in 1860, which contained the fundamental stereological formulas, but remained almost unnoticed both by mathematicians and practicians.

  7. Predicting timing of foot strike during running, independent of striking technique, using principal component analysis of joint angles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osis, Sean T; Hettinga, Blayne A; Leitch, Jessica; Ferber, Reed

    2014-08-22

    As 3-dimensional (3D) motion-capture for clinical gait analysis continues to evolve, new methods must be developed to improve the detection of gait cycle events based on kinematic data. Recently, the application of principal component analysis (PCA) to gait data has shown promise in detecting important biomechanical features. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to define a new foot strike detection method for a continuum of striking techniques, by applying PCA to joint angle waveforms. In accordance with Newtonian mechanics, it was hypothesized that transient features in the sagittal-plane accelerations of the lower extremity would be linked with the impulsive application of force to the foot at foot strike. Kinematic and kinetic data from treadmill running were selected for 154 subjects, from a database of gait biomechanics. Ankle, knee and hip sagittal plane angular acceleration kinematic curves were chained together to form a row input to a PCA matrix. A linear polynomial was calculated based on PCA scores, and a 10-fold cross-validation was performed to evaluate prediction accuracy against gold-standard foot strike as determined by a 10 N rise in the vertical ground reaction force. Results show 89-94% of all predicted foot strikes were within 4 frames (20 ms) of the gold standard with the largest error being 28 ms. It is concluded that this new foot strike detection is an improvement on existing methods and can be applied regardless of whether the runner exhibits a rearfoot, midfoot, or forefoot strike pattern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Probability and rational choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1808-1711.2014v18n1p1 In this paper I will discuss the rationality of reasoning about the future. There are two things that we might like to know about the future: which hypotheses are true and what will happen next. To put it in philosophical language, I aim to show that there are methods by which inferring to a generalization (selecting a hypothesis and inferring to the next instance (singular predictive inference can be shown to be normative and the method itself shown to be rational, where this is due in part to being based on evidence (although not in the same way and in part on a prior rational choice. I will also argue that these two inferences have been confused, being distinct not only conceptually (as nobody disputes but also in their results (the value given to the probability of the hypothesis being not in general that given to the next instance and that methods that are adequate for one are not by themselves adequate for the other. A number of debates over method founder on this confusion and do not show what the debaters think they show.

  9. Electric converters of electromagnetic strike machine with battery power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usanov, K. M.; Volgin, A. V.; Kargin, V. A.; Moiseev, A. P.; Chetverikov, E. A.

    2018-03-01

    At present, the application of pulse linear electromagnetic engines to drive strike machines for immersion of rod elements into the soil, strike drilling of shallow wells, dynamic probing of soils is recognized as quite effective. The pulse linear electromagnetic engine performs discrete consumption and conversion of electrical energy into mechanical work. Pulse dosing of a stream transmitted by the battery source to the pulse linear electromagnetic engine of the energy is provided by the electrical converter. The electric converters with the control of an electromagnetic strike machine as functions of time and armature movement, which form the unipolar supply pulses of voltage and current necessary for the normal operation of a pulse linear electromagnetic engine, are proposed. Electric converters are stable in operation, implement the necessary range of output parameters control determined by the technological process conditions, have noise immunity and automatic disconnection of power supply in emergency modes.

  10. VARIATION OF STRIKE INCENTIVES WITH DAMAGE PREFERENCES; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G. CANAVAN

    2001-01-01

    For START III level forces, strike allocations and magnitudes vary little with L, but first strike costs vary directly with L, which means that for K reflecting a preference for the survival of high value targets over their destruction and a preference for high value over military targets, the costs of action are far greater than those of inaction for a wide range of values of damage preference L. Thus, if both sides have much greater preferences for the survival of their high value targets than for military targets or destruction, they do not see a net incentive to strike, and crises are terminated by inaction. Recent decades suggest strong preferences for the survival of high value and that this has contributed to the lack of direct conflict during that period

  11. Analytic methods in applied probability in memory of Fridrikh Karpelevich

    CERN Document Server

    Suhov, Yu M

    2002-01-01

    This volume is dedicated to F. I. Karpelevich, an outstanding Russian mathematician who made important contributions to applied probability theory. The book contains original papers focusing on several areas of applied probability and its uses in modern industrial processes, telecommunications, computing, mathematical economics, and finance. It opens with a review of Karpelevich's contributions to applied probability theory and includes a bibliography of his works. Other articles discuss queueing network theory, in particular, in heavy traffic approximation (fluid models). The book is suitable

  12. Joint stiffness and running economy during imposed forefoot strike before and after a long run in rearfoot strike runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melcher, Daniel A; Paquette, Max R; Schilling, Brian K; Bloomer, Richard J

    2017-12-01

    Research has focused on the effects of acute strike pattern modifications on lower extremity joint stiffness and running economy (RE). Strike pattern modifications on running biomechanics have mostly been studied while runners complete short running bouts. This study examined the effects of an imposed forefoot strike (FFS) on RE and ankle and knee joint stiffness before and after a long run in habitual rearfoot strike (RFS) runners. Joint kinetics and RE were collected before and after a long run. Sagittal joint kinetics were computed from kinematic and ground reaction force data that were collected during over-ground running trials in 13 male runners. RE was measured during treadmill running. Knee flexion range of motion, knee extensor moment and ankle joint stiffness were lower while plantarflexor moment and knee joint stiffness were greater during imposed FFS compared with RFS. The long run did not influence the difference in ankle and knee joint stiffness between strike patterns. Runners were more economical during RFS than imposed FFS and RE was not influenced by the long run. These findings suggest that using a FFS pattern towards the end of a long run may not be mechanically or metabolically beneficial for well-trained male RFS runners.

  13. COVAL, Compound Probability Distribution for Function of Probability Distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astolfi, M.; Elbaz, J.

    1979-01-01

    1 - Nature of the physical problem solved: Computation of the probability distribution of a function of variables, given the probability distribution of the variables themselves. 'COVAL' has been applied to reliability analysis of a structure subject to random loads. 2 - Method of solution: Numerical transformation of probability distributions

  14. [Force-feeding of hunger-striking prisoners].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Shimon

    2014-09-01

    In contrast to the position of the World Medical Association and the Ethics Council of the Israel Medical Association, the author argues for forced-feeding of hunger-striking prisoners when their condition reaches a stage of danger of death or permanent injury. This position is based on the priority of human life over autonomy, and of a communitarian ethic. This position is supported by a District Court decision ordering the feeding of a hunger-striking prisoner, by a Supreme Court decision imposing surgery on a non-consenting prisoner, and in line with Israel's Patient's Right Law.

  15. MORE THAN A LABOR DISPUTE: THE PATCO STRIKE OF 1981

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul L. Butterworth

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available On August 3, 1981, 13,000 air traffic controllers walked off the job. Under US law, the strike was illegal. President Ronald Reagan ordered the strikers as a group to return to work; when they did not, he ordered individual strikers to return, and again they refused. Two days later the president fired the strikers. Reagan's action transformed relations between organized labor and American management, and created the worst turbulence to hit the American airways in recent history. “More Than a Labor Dispute” examines the work stoppage and aftermath through the eyes of two controllers and a pilot, all of whom worked during the strike.

  16. Remarkable rates of lightning strike mortality in Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Monique Borgerhoff; Msalu, Lameck; Caro, Tim; Salerno, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Livingstone's second mission site on the shore of Lake Malawi suffers very high rates of consequential lightning strikes. Comprehensive interviewing of victims and their relatives in seven Traditional Authorities in Nkhata Bay District, Malawi revealed that the annual rate of consequential strikes was 419/million, more than six times higher than that in other developing countries; the rate of deaths from lightning was 84/million/year, 5.4 times greater than the highest ever recorded. These remarkable figures reveal that lightning constitutes a significant stochastic source of mortality with potential life history consequences, but it should not deflect attention away from the more prominent causes of mortality in this rural area.

  17. Probabilities in the Card Game of Three Cards

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 9; Issue 3. Probabilities in the Card Game of Three Cards. A W Joshi M W Joshi. Classroom Volume 9 Issue 3 March 2004 pp 76-77. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/009/03/0076-0077 ...

  18. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  19. Introduction to probability with R

    CERN Document Server

    Baclawski, Kenneth

    2008-01-01

    FOREWORD PREFACE Sets, Events, and Probability The Algebra of Sets The Bernoulli Sample Space The Algebra of Multisets The Concept of Probability Properties of Probability Measures Independent Events The Bernoulli Process The R Language Finite Processes The Basic Models Counting Rules Computing Factorials The Second Rule of Counting Computing Probabilities Discrete Random Variables The Bernoulli Process: Tossing a Coin The Bernoulli Process: Random Walk Independence and Joint Distributions Expectations The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle General Random Variable

  20. A first course in probability

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2014-01-01

    A First Course in Probability, Ninth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

  1. Torts Liability for Strike Action and Third Party Rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raday, Frances

    1979-01-01

    Studies the nature of the torts liability incurred in strikes and the extent of existing immunities bestowed on strikers and their organizers, and explores the principles that should govern liability and immunity. Available from Israel Law Review Association, c/o Faculty of Law, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, P.O.B. 24100, Jerusalem…

  2. Delayed Post Mortem Predation in Lightning Strike Carcasses ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Campbell Murn

    An adult giraffe was struck dead by lightning on a game farm outside. Phalaborwa, South Africa in March 2014. Interestingly, delayed post-mortem predation occurred on the carcass, which according to the farm owners was an atypical phenomenon for the region. Delayed post-mortem scavenging on lightning strike ...

  3. EDITORIAL Plagiarism - time to strike at the epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    admin

    Plagiarism - time to strike at the epidemic. Lukman Yusuf1, Abraham Aseffa2. We live in a globalized world where information is instantly shared across continents. The number of biomedical journals available for reference is quite enormous and there is a sudden huge surge of free open access journals in the last few years ...

  4. Analysis of the effects of frequent strikes on academic performance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The history of Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU)'s strike can be traced back to 1978, the period of the beginning of the decline in the oil boom, when the country faced the consequences of the failure by its rulers to use the oil wealth to generate production and a social welfare system. Military dictatorship had ...

  5. When the Corporate Storm Strikes the Academy: Faculty Response Required

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBoy, James L.

    2015-01-01

    When the corporate storm strikes the academy, faculty must be willing and able to repel administrative assaults upon academic freedom, shared governance, and tenure. This paper will describe the on-going clash between administrators who embrace the corporate mindset and faculty who cherish traditions of shared governance and collegial…

  6. Force, reaction time, and precision of Kung Fu strikes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neto, Osmar Pinto; Bolander, Richard; Pacheco, Marcos Tadeu Tavares; Bir, Cynthia

    2009-08-01

    The goal was to compare values of force, precision, and reaction time of several martial arts punches and palm strikes performed by advanced and intermediate Kung Fu practitioners, both men and women. 13 Kung Fu practitioners, 10 men and three women, participated. Only the men, three advanced and seven intermediate, were considered for comparisons between levels. Reaction time values were obtained using two high speed cameras that recorded each strike at 2500 Hz. Force of impact was measured by a load cell. For comparisons of groups, force data were normalized by participant's body mass and height. Precision of the strikes was determined by a high speed pressure sensor. The results show that palm strikes were stronger than punches. Women in the study presented, on average, lower values of reaction time and force but higher values of precision than men. Advanced participants presented higher forces than intermediate participants. Significant negative correlations between the values of force and precision and the values of force and reaction time were also found.

  7. Striking Inside Angola with 32 Battalion | Scheepers | Scientia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Scientia Militaria: South African Journal of Military Studies. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 42, No 1 (2014) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Striking Inside Angola with 32 ...

  8. Assemblage of strike-slip faults and tectonic extension and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    12

    the formation, evolution and distribution of these strike-slip faults have important. 80 ...... function of coal-derived gas study for natural gas industry development in China; .... Bohai-Zhangjiakou seismotectonic zone based on 3D visco-elastic ...

  9. Management of patients during hunger strike and refeeding phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, M; Joray, M L; Perrig, M; Bodmer, M; Stanga, Z

    2014-01-01

    Hunger strikers resuming nutritional intake may develop a life-threatening refeeding syndrome (RFS). Consequently, hunger strikers represent a core challenge for the medical staff. The objective of the study was to test the effectiveness and safety of evidence-based recommendations for prevention and management of RFS during the refeeding phase. This was a retrospective, observational data analysis of 37 consecutive, unselected cases of prisoners on a hunger strike during a 5-y period. The sample consisted of 37 cases representing 33 individual patients. In seven cases (18.9%), the hunger strike was continued during the hospital stay, in 16 episodes (43.2%) cessation of the hunger strike occurred immediately after admission to the security ward, and in 14 episodes (37.9%) during hospital stay. In the refeed cases (n = 30), nutritional replenishment occurred orally, and in 25 (83.3%) micronutrients substitutions were made based on the recommendations. The gradual refeeding with fluid restriction occurred over 10 d. Uncomplicated dyselectrolytemia was documented in 12 cases (40%) within the refeeding phase. One case (3.3%) presented bilateral ankle edemas as a clinical manifestation of moderate RFS. Intensive medical treatment was not necessary and none of the patients died. Seven episodes of continued hunger strike were observed during the entire hospital stay without medical complications. Our data suggested that seriousness and rate of medical complications during the refeeding phase can be kept at a minimum in a hunger strike population. This study supported use of recommendations to optimize risk management and to improve treatment quality and patient safety in this vulnerable population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A brief introduction to probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Paola, Gioacchino; Bertani, Alessandro; De Monte, Lavinia; Tuzzolino, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    The theory of probability has been debated for centuries: back in 1600, French mathematics used the rules of probability to place and win bets. Subsequently, the knowledge of probability has significantly evolved and is now an essential tool for statistics. In this paper, the basic theoretical principles of probability will be reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the comprehension of statistical inference. After a brief general introduction on probability, we will review the concept of the "probability distribution" that is a function providing the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes of a categorical or continuous variable. Specific attention will be focused on normal distribution that is the most relevant distribution applied to statistical analysis.

  11. Implications of Incessant Strike Actions on the Implementation of Technical Education Programme in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adavbiele, J. A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper was designed to x-ray the implications of incessant strike actions on the implementation of Technical education programme in Nigeria. The paper took an exploratory view on the concept of strike actions in Nigeria with particular references on notable strike actions that have occurred in Nigeria. The types of strike were explained and…

  12. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  13. Lightning Strike Ablation Damage Influence Factors Analysis of Carbon Fiber/Epoxy Composite Based on Coupled Electrical-Thermal Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, J. J.; Chang, F.; Li, S. L.; Yao, X. L.; Sun, J. R.; Xiao, Y.

    2017-10-01

    According to the mathematical analysis model constructed on the basis of energy-balance relationship in lightning strike, and accompany with the simplified calculation strategy of composite resin pyrolysis degree dependent electrical conductivity, an effective three dimensional thermal-electrical coupling analysis finite element model of composite laminate suffered from lightning current was established based on ABAQUS, to elucidate the effects of lighting current waveform parameters and thermal/electrical properties of composite laminate on the extent of ablation damage. Simulated predictions agree well with the composite lightning strike directed effect experimental data, illustrating the potential accuracy of the constructed model. The analytical results revealed that extent of composite lightning strike ablation damage can be characterized by action integral validly, there exist remarkable power function relationships between action integral and visual damage area, projected damage area, maximum damage depth and damage volume of ablation damage, and enhancing the electrical conductivity and specific heat of composite, ablation damage will be descended obviously, power function relationships also exist between electrical conductivity, specific heat and ablation damage, however, the impact of thermal conductivity on the extent of ablation damage is not notable. The conclusions obtained provide some guidance for composite anti-lightning strike structure-function integration design.

  14. Ectasias and varices of the vocal fold: clearing the striking zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochman, I; Sataloff, R T; Hillman, R E; Zeitels, S M

    1999-01-01

    Vascular malformations such as ectasias and varices (Es and Vs) are frequently encountered in patients who present with recurrent vocal fold hemorrhage and/or other traumatic vocal fold lesions. This study examined Es and Vs with regard to their anatomic presentation, phonomicrosurgical management, and treatment outcome. Forty-two patients (39 of them singers) were treated for a total of 87 Es and Vs: 67 of 87 (77%) were on the superior surface of the vocal fold and 20 of 87 (23%) were on the medial surface of the vocal fold. Eighty-three percent were located in the middle musculomembranous region (the striking zone), where the greatest aerodynamically induced shearing stresses occur during phonation. Treatment was performed with carbon dioxide laser cauterization (13 patients), or a new technique utilizing cold instrument excision by means of epithelial cordotomies (23 patients), while a combined approach was employed in 6 patients. Comparisons of preoperative and postoperative stroboscopy revealed improvement or no significant change in all patients in whom the cold instrument technique was used, and increased epithelial stiffness was noted in 4 of 19 patients in whom the carbon dioxide laser was used. Clearing the striking zone appears to have halted further hemorrhages by removing the the fragile Es and Vs from this injury-prone region of the vocal fold. Interpretations of stroboscopic examinations were directed at providing new insights into the biomechanical forces of vocal fold vibration that probably contribute to the genesis of Es and Vs in the vocal folds.

  15. Prediction and probability in sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klein, E.; Sacquin, Y.

    1998-01-01

    This book reports the 7 presentations made at the third meeting 'physics and fundamental questions' whose theme was probability and prediction. The concept of probability that was invented to apprehend random phenomena has become an important branch of mathematics and its application range spreads from radioactivity to species evolution via cosmology or the management of very weak risks. The notion of probability is the basis of quantum mechanics and then is bound to the very nature of matter. The 7 topics are: - radioactivity and probability, - statistical and quantum fluctuations, - quantum mechanics as a generalized probability theory, - probability and the irrational efficiency of mathematics, - can we foresee the future of the universe?, - chance, eventuality and necessity in biology, - how to manage weak risks? (A.C.)

  16. Probabilities, causes and propensities in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Suárez, Mauricio

    2010-01-01

    This volume defends a novel approach to the philosophy of physics: it is the first book devoted to a comparative study of probability, causality, and propensity, and their various interrelations, within the context of contemporary physics - particularly quantum and statistical physics. The philosophical debates and distinctions are firmly grounded upon examples from actual physics, thus exemplifying a robustly empiricist approach. The essays, by both prominent scholars in the field and promising young researchers, constitute a pioneer effort in bringing out the connections between probabilistic, causal and dispositional aspects of the quantum domain. This book will appeal to specialists in philosophy and foundations of physics, philosophy of science in general, metaphysics, ontology of physics theories, and philosophy of probability.

  17. Poisson Processes in Free Probability

    OpenAIRE

    An, Guimei; Gao, Mingchu

    2015-01-01

    We prove a multidimensional Poisson limit theorem in free probability, and define joint free Poisson distributions in a non-commutative probability space. We define (compound) free Poisson process explicitly, similar to the definitions of (compound) Poisson processes in classical probability. We proved that the sum of finitely many freely independent compound free Poisson processes is a compound free Poisson processes. We give a step by step procedure for constructing a (compound) free Poisso...

  18. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  19. Light-induced bird strikes on vessels in Southwest Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merkel, Flemming Ravn; Johansen, Kasper Lambert

    2011-01-01

    Light-induced bird strikes are known to occur when vessels navigate during darkness in icy waters using powerful searchlight. In Southwest Greenland, which is important internationally for wintering seabirds, we collected reports of incidents of bird strikes over 2–3 winters (2006–2009) from navy...... vessels, cargo vessels and trawlers (total n = 19). Forty-one incidents were reported: mainly close to land (birds were reported killed in a single incident. All occurred between 5 p.m. and 6 a.m. and significantly more birds were involved when...... visibility was poor (snow) rather than moderate or good. Among five seabird species reported, the common eider (Somateria mollissima) accounted for 95% of the bird casualties. Based on spatial analyses of data on vessel traffic intensity and common eider density we are able to predict areas with high risk...

  20. Triggered lightning strikes to aircraft and natural intracloud discharges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, Vladislav

    1989-01-01

    The physical model of Mazur (1989) for triggering lightning strikes by aircraft was used to interpret the initiation of intracloud flashes observed by the French UHF-VHF interferometric system. It is shown that both the intracloud discharges and airplane-triggered lightning strikes were initiated by simultaneous bidirectional development of the negative stepped leader and the positive leader-continous current process. However, the negative stepped leader phase in triggered flashes is of shorter duration (tens of milliseconds), than that in intracloud flashes (usually hundreds of milliseconds). This is considered to be due to the fact that, on the aircraft there is a single initiation process, versus the numerous initiation processes that occur inside the cloud.

  1. Concept of a Conducting Composite Material for Lightning Strike Protection

    OpenAIRE

    Katunin A.; Krukiewicz K.; Herega A.; Catalanotti G.

    2016-01-01

    The paper focuses on development of a multifunctional material which allows conducting of electrical current and simultaneously holds mechanical properties of a polymeric composite. Such material could be applied for exterior fuselage elements of an aircraft in order to minimize damage occurring during lightning strikes. The concept introduced in this paper is presented from the points of view of various scientific disciplines including materials science, chemistry, structural physics and mec...

  2. 2018 NDIA Precision Strike Annual Review (PSAR-18)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-20

    Planning Agenda as of 9 MAR 18 Ginny Sniegon: 703-575-6653 PRECISION STRIKE ANNUAL REVIEW (PSAR-18) 20 MARCH 2018...Ginny Sniegon PSA Programs Vice-Chair: Captain David “Jumbo” Baird, USN Annual Review Chair: Kurt Chankaya Congressional & William J. Perry...0745 PSA ANNUAL REVIEW WELCOME: Ken Masson—PSA Chairman 0755 PSAR-18 OPENING REMARKS: Kurt Chankaya—PSAR-18 Event Chair 0800 CONGRESSIONAL

  3. Oscillation thresholds for "striking outwards" reeds coupled to a resonator

    OpenAIRE

    Silva , Fabrice; Kergomard , Jean; Vergez , Christophe

    2007-01-01

    International audience; This paper considers a "striking outwards" reed coupled to a resonator. This expression, due to Helmholtz, is not discussed here : it corresponds to the most common model of a lip-type valve, when the valve is assumed to be a one degree of freedom oscillator. The presented work is an extension of the works done by Wilson and Beavers (1974), Tarnopolsky (2000). The range of the playing frequencies is investigated. The first results are analytical : when no losses are pr...

  4. F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: Preliminary Observations on Program Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-23

    current fighter aircraft. The cost of extending the lives of current fighter aircraft and acquiring other major weapon systems, while continuing to... Norway . Ongoing Manufacturing and Reliability Progress Continue Page 12 GAO-16-489T rework, and repair costs have remained steady over...Program Progress Why GAO Did This Study With estimated acquisition costs of nearly $400 billion, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter—also known as the

  5. Foot strike pattern in children during shod-unshod running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorre Román, Pedro Ángel; Balboa, Fernando Redondo; Pinillos, Felipe García

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the foot strike patterns (FSPs) and neutral support (no INV/EVE and no foot rotation) in children, as well as to determine the influence of shod/unshod conditions and sex. A total of 713 children, aged 6 to 16 years, participated in this study (Age=10.28±2.71years, body mass index [BMI]=19.70±3.91kg/m 2 , 302 girls and 411 boys). A sagittal and frontal-plane video (240Hz) was recorded using a high-speed camcorder, to record the following variables: rearfoot strike (RFS), midfoot strike (MFS), forefoot strike (FFS), inversion/eversion (INV/EVE) and foot rotation on initial contact. RFS prevalence was similar between boys and girls in both shod and unshod conditions. In the unshod condition there was a significant reduction (p<0.001) of RFS prevalence both in boys (shod condition=83.95% vs. 62.65% unshod condition) and in girls (shod condition=87.85% vs. 62.70% unshod condition). No significant differences were found in INV/EVE and foot rotation between sex groups. In the unshod condition there was a significant increase (p<0.001) of neutral support (no INV/EVE) both in boys (shod condition=12.55% vs. 22.22% unshod condition) and in girls (shod condition=17.9% vs. 28.15% unshod condition). In addition, in the unshod condition there is a significant reduction (p<0.001) of neutral support (no foot rotation) both in boys (shod condition=21.55% vs. 11.10% unshod condition) and in girls (shod condition=21.05% vs. 11.95% unshod condition). In children, RFS prevalence is lower than adult's population. Additionally, barefoot running reduced the prevalence of RFS and INV/EVE, however increased foot rotation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Simulating Bird Strike on Aircraft Composite Wing Leading Edge.

    OpenAIRE

    Ericsson, Max

    2012-01-01

    In this master thesis project the possibility to model the response of a wing when subjected to bird strike using finite elements is analyzed. Since this transient event lasts only a few milliseconds the used solution method is explicit time integration. The wing is manufactured using carbon fiber laminate. Carbon fiber laminates have orthotropic material properties with different stiffness in different directions. Accordingly, there are damage mechanisms not considered when using metal that ...

  7. Active strike-slip faulting in El Salvador, Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corti, Giacomo; Carminati, Eugenio; Mazzarini, Francesco; Oziel Garcia, Marvyn

    2005-12-01

    Several major earthquakes have affected El Salvador, Central America, during the Past 100 yr as a consequence of oblique subduction of the Cocos plate under the Caribbean plate, which is partitioned between trench-orthogonal compression and strike-slip deformation parallel to the volcanic arc. Focal mechanisms and the distribution of the most destructive earthquakes, together with geomorphologic evidence, suggest that this transcurrent component of motion may be accommodated by a major strike-slip fault (El Salvador fault zone). We present field geological, structural, and geomorphological data collected in central El Salvador that allow the constraint of the kinematics and the Quaternary activity of this major seismogenic strike-slip fault system. Data suggest that the El Salvador fault zone consists of at least two main ˜E-W fault segments (San Vicente and Berlin segments), with associated secondary synthetic (WNW-ESE) and antithetic (NNW-SSE) Riedel shears and NW-SE tensional structures. The two main fault segments overlap in a dextral en echelon style with the formation of an intervening pull-apart basin. Our original geological and geomorphologic data suggest a late Pleistocene Holocene slip rate of ˜11 mm/yr along the Berlin segment, in contrast with low historical seismicity. The kinematics and rates of deformation suggested by our new data are consistent with models involving slip partitioning during oblique subduction, and support the notion that a trench-parallel component of motion between the Caribbean and Cocos plates is concentrated along E-W dextral strike-slip faults parallel to the volcanic arc.

  8. Rearfoot striking runners are more economical than midfoot strikers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogueta-Alday, Ana; Rodríguez-Marroyo, José Antonio; García-López, Juan

    2014-03-01

    This study aimed to analyze the influence of foot strike pattern on running economy and biomechanical characteristics in subelite runners with a similar performance level. Twenty subelite long-distance runners participated and were divided into two groups according to their foot strike pattern: rearfoot (RF, n = 10) and midfoot (MF, n = 10) strikers. Anthropometric characteristics were measured (height, body mass, body mass index, skinfolds, circumferences, and lengths); physiological (VO2max, anaerobic threshold, and running economy) and biomechanical characteristics (contact and flight times, step rate, and step length) were registered during both incremental and submaximal tests on a treadmill. There were no significant intergroup differences in anthropometrics, VO2max, or anaerobic threshold measures. RF strikers were 5.4%, 9.3%, and 5.0% more economical than MF at submaximal speeds (11, 13, and 15 km·h respectively, although the difference was not significant at 15 km·h, P = 0.07). Step rate and step length were not different between groups, but RF showed longer contact time (P Foot strike pattern affected both contact and flight times, which may explain the differences in running economy.

  9. Striking dynamics and kinetic properties of boxing and MMA gloves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Lee

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available With the growing popularity of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA as a competitive sport, questions regarding the dynamic response and properties of MMA gloves arise. High-energy impacts from punches are very similar to boxing yet MMA competition requires the use of 4 oz fingerless glove, compared to the larger full enclosure boxing glove. This work assessed the kinetic properties and strike dynamics of MMA gloves and compared findings with traditional boxing gloves. Gloves mounted on a molded fist were impacted repetitively on an instrumental anvil designed for impact, over a 5 hour period resulting in 10,000 continuous and consistent strikes. Kinetic data from impacts were sampled at the beginning of the data collection and subsequently every 30 minutes (every 1,000 strikes. MMA gloves produced 4-5 times greater peak force and 5 times faster load rate compared to the boxing glove. However, MMA gloves also showed signs of material fatigue, with peak force increasing by 35% and rate of loading increasing by 60% over the duration of the test. Boxing glove characteristics did deteriorate but to a lesser extent. In summary, the kinetic properties of MMA glove differed substantially from the boxing glove resulting in impacts characterized by higher peak forces and more rapid development of force. Material properties including stiffness and thickness play a role in the kinetic characteristics upon impact, and can be inferred to alter injury mechanisms of blunt force trauma.

  10. Fish passage through hydropower turbines: Simulating blade strike using the discrete element method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richmond, M C; Romero-Gomez, P

    2014-01-01

    intake using an empirical method, but the unsteady simulation underestimated turbulence in the intake. However, the DEM-based strike frequency is more representative of blade-strike probability as compared to the steady solution, mainly because DEM particles accounted for the full fish length and width, thus resolving (instead of modeling) the collision event. Although further development and testing is needed, the DEM method shows promise as another tool in the engineering design process to develop turbines that can achieve fish-friendly hydraulic conditions

  11. The significance of strike-slip faulting in the basement of the Zagros fold and thrust belt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hessami, K.; Koyi, H.A.; Talbot, C.J. [Uppsala University (Sweden). Institute of Earth Sciences

    2000-01-01

    Lateral offsets in the pattern of seismicity along the Zagros fold and thrust belt indicate that transverse faults segmenting the Arabian basement are active deep-seated strike-slip faults. The dominant NW-SE trending features of the belt have undergone repeated horizontal displacements along these transverse faults. These reactivated basement faults, which are inherited from the Pan-African construction phase, controlled both deposition of the Phanerozoic cover before Tertiary-Recent deformation of the Zagros and probably the entrapment of hydrocarbons on the NE margin of Arabia and in the Zagros area. We have used observations of faulting recognized on Landsat satellite images, in conjunction with the spatial distribution of earthquakes and their focal mechanism solutions, to infer a tectonic model for the Zagros basement. Deformation in the NW Zagros appears to be concentrated on basement thrusts and a few widely-spaced north-south trending strike-slip faults which separate major structural segments. In the SE Zagros, two main structural domains can be distinguished. A domain of NNW-trending right-lateral faults in the northern part of the SE Zagros implies that fault-bounded blocks are likely to have rotated anticlockwise about vertical axes relative to both Arabia and Central Iran. In contrast, the predominance of NNE-trending left-lateral faults in the southern part of the SE Zagros implies that fault-bounded blocks may have rotated clockwise about vertical axes. We propose a tectonic model in which crustal blocks bounded by strike-slip faults in a zone of simple shear rotate about vertical axes relative to both Arabia and Central Iran. The presence of domains of strike-slip and thrust faulting in the Zagros basement suggest that some of the convergence between Arabia and Central Iran is accommodated by rotation and possible lateral movement of crust along the belt by strike-slip faults, as well as by obvious crustal shortening and thickening along thrust

  12. Probability inequalities for decomposition integrals

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 315, č. 1 (2017), s. 240-248 ISSN 0377-0427 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Decomposition integral * Superdecomposition integral * Probability inequalities Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/mesiar-0470959.pdf

  13. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  14. Invariant probabilities of transition functions

    CERN Document Server

    Zaharopol, Radu

    2014-01-01

    The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...

  15. Introduction to probability with Mathematica

    CERN Document Server

    Hastings, Kevin J

    2009-01-01

    Discrete ProbabilityThe Cast of Characters Properties of Probability Simulation Random SamplingConditional ProbabilityIndependenceDiscrete DistributionsDiscrete Random Variables, Distributions, and ExpectationsBernoulli and Binomial Random VariablesGeometric and Negative Binomial Random Variables Poisson DistributionJoint, Marginal, and Conditional Distributions More on ExpectationContinuous ProbabilityFrom the Finite to the (Very) Infinite Continuous Random Variables and DistributionsContinuous ExpectationContinuous DistributionsThe Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal DistributionNew Random Variables from OldOrder Statistics Gamma DistributionsChi-Square, Student's t, and F-DistributionsTransformations of Normal Random VariablesAsymptotic TheoryStrong and Weak Laws of Large Numbers Central Limit TheoremStochastic Processes and ApplicationsMarkov ChainsPoisson Processes QueuesBrownian MotionFinancial MathematicsAppendixIntroduction to Mathematica Glossary of Mathematica Commands for Probability Short Answers...

  16. Linear positivity and virtual probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartle, James B.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the quantum theory of closed systems based on the linear positivity decoherence condition of Goldstein and Page. The objective of any quantum theory of a closed system, most generally the universe, is the prediction of probabilities for the individual members of sets of alternative coarse-grained histories of the system. Quantum interference between members of a set of alternative histories is an obstacle to assigning probabilities that are consistent with the rules of probability theory. A quantum theory of closed systems therefore requires two elements: (1) a condition specifying which sets of histories may be assigned probabilities and (2) a rule for those probabilities. The linear positivity condition of Goldstein and Page is the weakest of the general conditions proposed so far. Its general properties relating to exact probability sum rules, time neutrality, and conservation laws are explored. Its inconsistency with the usual notion of independent subsystems in quantum mechanics is reviewed. Its relation to the stronger condition of medium decoherence necessary for classicality is discussed. The linear positivity of histories in a number of simple model systems is investigated with the aim of exhibiting linearly positive sets of histories that are not decoherent. The utility of extending the notion of probability to include values outside the range of 0-1 is described. Alternatives with such virtual probabilities cannot be measured or recorded, but can be used in the intermediate steps of calculations of real probabilities. Extended probabilities give a simple and general way of formulating quantum theory. The various decoherence conditions are compared in terms of their utility for characterizing classicality and the role they might play in further generalizations of quantum mechanics

  17. Probability Machines: Consistent Probability Estimation Using Nonparametric Learning Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malley, J. D.; Kruppa, J.; Dasgupta, A.; Malley, K. G.; Ziegler, A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Background Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. PMID:21915433

  18. Probable Inference and Quantum Mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandy, W. T. Jr.

    2009-01-01

    In its current very successful interpretation the quantum theory is fundamentally statistical in nature. Although commonly viewed as a probability amplitude whose (complex) square is a probability, the wavefunction or state vector continues to defy consensus as to its exact meaning, primarily because it is not a physical observable. Rather than approach this problem directly, it is suggested that it is first necessary to clarify the precise role of probability theory in quantum mechanics, either as applied to, or as an intrinsic part of the quantum theory. When all is said and done the unsurprising conclusion is that quantum mechanics does not constitute a logic and probability unto itself, but adheres to the long-established rules of classical probability theory while providing a means within itself for calculating the relevant probabilities. In addition, the wavefunction is seen to be a description of the quantum state assigned by an observer based on definite information, such that the same state must be assigned by any other observer based on the same information, in much the same way that probabilities are assigned.

  19. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Probability with applications and R

    CERN Document Server

    Dobrow, Robert P

    2013-01-01

    An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability. With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book's emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language c

  1. A philosophical essay on probabilities

    CERN Document Server

    Laplace, Marquis de

    1996-01-01

    A classic of science, this famous essay by ""the Newton of France"" introduces lay readers to the concepts and uses of probability theory. It is of especial interest today as an application of mathematical techniques to problems in social and biological sciences.Generally recognized as the founder of the modern phase of probability theory, Laplace here applies the principles and general results of his theory ""to the most important questions of life, which are, in effect, for the most part, problems in probability."" Thus, without the use of higher mathematics, he demonstrates the application

  2. A probability model for the failure of pressure containing parts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, H.M.

    1978-01-01

    The model provides a method of estimating the order of magnitude of the leakage failure probability of pressure containing parts. It is a fatigue based model which makes use of the statistics available for both specimens and vessels. Some novel concepts are introduced but essentially the model simply quantifies the obvious i.e. that failure probability increases with increases in stress levels, number of cycles, volume of material and volume of weld metal. A further model based on fracture mechanics estimates the catastrophic fraction of leakage failures. (author)

  3. Failure-probability driven dose painting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogelius, Ivan R.; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Kristensen, Claus A.; Rasmussen, Jacob; Specht, Lena; Berthelsen, Anne K.; Bentzen, Søren M.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study using the optimized dose prescription in 20 patients is performed.Methods: Patients treated at our center have five tumor subvolumes from the center of the tumor (PET positive volume) and out delineated. The spatial distribution of 48 failures in patients with complete clinical response after (chemo)radiation is used to derive a model for tumor control probability (TCP). The total TCP is fixed to the clinically observed 70% actuarial TCP at five years. Additionally, the authors match the distribution of failures between the five subvolumes to the observed distribution. The steepness of the dose–response is extracted from the literature and the authors assume 30% and 20% risk of subclinical involvement in the elective volumes. The result is a five-compartment dose response model matching the observed distribution of failures. The model is used to optimize the distribution of dose in individual patients, while keeping the treatment intensity constant and the maximum prescribed dose below 85 Gy.Results: The vast majority of failures occur centrally despite the small volumes of the central regions. Thus, optimizing the dose prescription yields higher doses to the central target volumes and lower doses to the elective volumes. The dose planning study shows that the modified prescription is clinically feasible. The optimized TCP is 89% (range: 82%–91%) as compared to the observed TCP of 70%.Conclusions: The observed distribution of locoregional failures was used to derive an objective, data-driven dose prescription function. The optimized dose is predicted to result in a substantial increase in local control without increasing the predicted risk of toxicity

  4. The effects of preferred and non-preferred running strike patterns on tissue vibration properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enders, Hendrik; von Tscharner, Vinzenz; Nigg, Benno M

    2014-03-01

    To characterize soft tissue vibrations during running with a preferred and a non-preferred strike pattern in shoes and barefoot. Cross-sectional study. Participants ran at 3.5 m s(-1) on a treadmill in shoes and barefoot using a rearfoot and a forefoot strike for each footwear condition. The preferred strike patterns for the subjects were a rearfoot strike and a forefoot strike for shod and barefoot running, respectively. Vibrations were recorded with an accelerometer overlying the belly of the medial gastrocnemius. Thirteen non-linearly scaled wavelets were used for the analysis. Damping was calculated as the overall decay of power in the acceleration signal post ground contact. A higher damping coefficient indicates higher damping capacities of the soft tissue. The shod rearfoot strike showed a 93% lower damping coefficient than the shod forefoot strike (pforefoot strike showed a trend toward a lower damping coefficient compared to a barefoot rearfoot strike. Running barefoot with a forefoot strike resulted in a significantly lower damping coefficient than a forefoot strike when wearing shoes (pstrike showed lower damping compared to a barefoot rearfoot strike (p<0.001). While rearfoot striking showed lower vibration frequencies in shod and barefoot running, it did not consistently result in lower damping coefficients. This study showed that the use of a preferred movement resulted in lower damping coefficients of running related soft tissue vibrations. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Is the foot striking pattern more important than barefoot or shod conditions in running?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Yo; Lin, Kuan-Lun; Shiang, Tzyy-Yuang

    2013-07-01

    People have advocated barefoot running, claiming that it is better suited to human nature. Humans usually run barefoot using a forefoot strike and run shod using a heel strike. The striking pattern was thought to be a key factor that contributes to the benefit of barefoot running. The purpose of this study is to use scientific data to prove that the striking pattern is more important than barefoot or shod conditions for runners on running injuries prevention. Twelve habitually male shod runners were recruited to run under four varying conditions: barefoot running with a forefoot strike, barefoot running with a heel strike, shod running with a forefoot strike, and shod running with a heel strike. Kinetic and kinematic data and electromyography signals were recorded during the experiments. The results showed that the lower extremity can gain more compliance when running with a forefoot strike. Habitually shod runners can gain more shock absorption by changing the striking pattern to a forefoot strike when running with shoes and barefoot conditions. Habitually shod runners may be subject to injuries more easily when they run barefoot while maintaining their heel strike pattern. Higher muscle activity in the gastrocnemius was observed when running with a forefoot strike, which may imply a greater training load on the muscle and a tendency for injury. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Patellofemoral joint stress during running with alterations in foot strike pattern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannatta, Charles Nathan; Kernozek, Thomas W

    2015-05-01

    This study aimed to quantify differences in patellofemoral joint stress that may occur when healthy runners alter their foot strike pattern from their habitual rearfoot strike to a forefoot strike to gain insight on the potential etiology and treatment methods of patellofemoral pain. Sixteen healthy female runners completed 20 running trials in a controlled laboratory setting under rearfoot strike and forefoot strike conditions. Kinetic and kinematic data were used to drive a static optimization technique to estimate individual muscle forces to input into a model of the patellofemoral joint to estimate joint stress during running. Peak patellofemoral joint stress and the stress-time integral over stance phase decreased by 27% and 12%, respectively, in the forefoot strike condition (P forefoot strike condition (P forefoot strike (P forefoot strike condition (P strike pattern to a forefoot strike results in consistent reductions in patellofemoral joint stress independent of changes in step length. Thus, implementation of forefoot strike training programs may be warranted in the treatment of runners with patellofemoral pain. However, it is suggested that the transition to a forefoot strike pattern should be completed in a graduated manner.

  7. Global Strike 2035: Considerations for Enabling Effective Command and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-16

    reach places .1 Broadly grouped under the moniker Global Strike,2 this family-of-systems capability should mature by 2035 leading to the realization of...and] ‘micro-actors with massive impact,’…[combine] with new technology and new or transfigured ways of war, but the old threats also remain and have...as the Joint Time-Sensitive Targets Manager (JTSTM),38 “operators and analysts [could] access the same dynamic common operating picture…to provide

  8. Principles Governing the Mechanics and Control of Snake Strikes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-26

    small, potentially evasive target with an impact sufficient for prey capture but without 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13...strike a small, potentially evasive target with an impact sufficient for prey capture but without damaging their lightly-built skull. Although the...p o rt io n o f To ta l M as s Segment Number Boa/Python Mean Colubrid Mean Viper Mean Figure 3 – Proportion of body mass in each of 10 equal-length

  9. Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nahum, A.E.

    1996-01-01

    The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s a can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s a . The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs

  10. Converting dose distributions into tumour control probability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahum, A E [The Royal Marsden Hospital, London (United Kingdom). Joint Dept. of Physics

    1996-08-01

    The endpoints in radiotherapy that are truly of relevance are not dose distributions but the probability of local control, sometimes known as the Tumour Control Probability (TCP) and the Probability of Normal Tissue Complications (NTCP). A model for the estimation of TCP based on simple radiobiological considerations is described. It is shown that incorporation of inter-patient heterogeneity into the radiosensitivity parameter a through s{sub a} can result in a clinically realistic slope for the dose-response curve. The model is applied to inhomogeneous target dose distributions in order to demonstrate the relationship between dose uniformity and s{sub a}. The consequences of varying clonogenic density are also explored. Finally the model is applied to the target-volume DVHs for patients in a clinical trial of conformal pelvic radiotherapy; the effect of dose inhomogeneities on distributions of TCP are shown as well as the potential benefits of customizing the target dose according to normal-tissue DVHs. (author). 37 refs, 9 figs.

  11. Pipe failure probability - the Thomas paper revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydell, B.O.Y.

    2000-01-01

    Almost twenty years ago, in Volume 2 of Reliability Engineering (the predecessor of Reliability Engineering and System Safety), a paper by H. M. Thomas of Rolls Royce and Associates Ltd. presented a generalized approach to the estimation of piping and vessel failure probability. The 'Thomas-approach' used insights from actual failure statistics to calculate the probability of leakage and conditional probability of rupture given leakage. It was intended for practitioners without access to data on the service experience with piping and piping system components. This article revisits the Thomas paper by drawing on insights from development of a new database on piping failures in commercial nuclear power plants worldwide (SKI-PIPE). Partially sponsored by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI), the R and D leading up to this note was performed during 1994-1999. Motivated by data requirements of reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), the new database supports statistical analysis of piping failure data. Against the background of this database development program, the article reviews the applicability of the 'Thomas approach' in applied risk and reliability analysis. It addresses the question whether a new and expanded database on the service experience with piping systems would alter the original piping reliability correlation as suggested by H. M. Thomas

  12. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Introduction to probability and measure

    CERN Document Server

    Parthasarathy, K R

    2005-01-01

    According to a remark attributed to Mark Kac 'Probability Theory is a measure theory with a soul'. This book with its choice of proofs, remarks, examples and exercises has been prepared taking both these aesthetic and practical aspects into account.

  14. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acacio de Barros, J.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  15. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acacio de Barros, J. [Liberal Studies, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2012-12-18

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  16. Default probabilities and default correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Erlenmaier, Ulrich; Gersbach, Hans

    2001-01-01

    Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide the analytics and robustness of the relationship between default correlations. We show that loans with higher default probabilities will not only have higher variances but also higher correlations between loans. As a consequence, portfolio standard deviation can increase substantially when loan default probabilities rise. This result has two important implications. First, relative prices of loans with different default probabili...

  17. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-30

    Washington, DC USA Max Lotstein and Phil Johnson-Laird Department of Psychology Princeton University Princeton, NJ USA August 30th 2012...social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. The participants ranked the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller as...retorted that such a flagrant violation of the probability calculus was a result of a psychological experiment that obscured the rationality of the

  18. Probability Matching, Fast and Slow

    OpenAIRE

    Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2014-01-01

    A prominent point of contention among researchers regarding the interpretation of probability-matching behavior is whether it represents a cognitively sophisticated, adaptive response to the inherent uncertainty of the tasks or settings in which it is observed, or whether instead it represents a fundamental shortcoming in the heuristics that support and guide human decision making. Put crudely, researchers disagree on whether probability matching is "smart" or "dumb." Here, we consider eviden...

  19. The role of trade union organization in solving labor disputes and strikes in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguen T.H.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available the article describes the role of the trade union organization in solving labor disputes and strikes and the legal basis of the role of trade union organization in solving labor disputes and strikes in Vietnam.

  20. THE EFFECT OF STEP RATE MANIPULATION ON FOOT STRIKE PATTERN OF LONG DISTANCE RUNNERS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Darrell J; Heisler, Hollie; Mooney, Jennifer; Kring, Richard

    2016-02-01

    Running gait retraining to change foot strike pattern in runners from a heel strike pattern to a non heel- strike pattern has been shown to reduce impact forces and may help to reduce running related injuries. Step rate manipulation above preferred is known to help decrease step length, foot inclination angle, and vertical mass excursion, but has not yet been evaluated as a method to change foot strike pattern. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of step rate manipulation on foot strike pattern in shod recreational runners who run with a heel strike pattern. A secondary purpose was to describe the effect of step rate manipulation at specific percentages above preferred on foot inclination angle at initial contact. Forty volunteer runners, who were self-reported heel strikers and had a weekly running mileage of at least 10 miles, were recruited. Runners were confirmed to be heel strikers during the warm up period on the treadmill. The subject's step rate was determined at their preferred running pace. A metronome was used to increase step rate above the preferred step rate by 5%, 10% and 15%. 2D video motion analysis was utilized to determine foot strike pattern and to measure foot inclination angle at initial contact for each step rate condition. There was a statistically significant change in foot strike pattern from a heel strike pattern to a mid-foot or forefoot strike pattern at both 10% and 15% step rates above preferred. Seven of the 40 subjects (17.5%) changed from a heel- strike pattern to a non- heel strike pattern at +10% and 12 of the 40 subjects (30%) changed to a non-heel strike pattern at +15%. Mean foot inclination angle at initial contact showed a statistically significant change (reduction) as step rate increased. Step rate manipulation of 10% or greater may be enough to change foot strike pattern from a heel strike to a mid-foot or forefoot strike pattern in a small percentage of recreational runners who run in traditional

  1. Probably not future prediction using probability and statistical inference

    CERN Document Server

    Dworsky, Lawrence N

    2008-01-01

    An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling ...

  2. Onset of aseismic creep on major strike-slip faults

    KAUST Repository

    Ç akir, Ziyadin; Ergintav, Semih; Ö zener, Haluk; Doǧan, Uǧur; Akoglu, Ahmet; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Reilinger, Robert E.

    2012-01-01

    Time series analysis of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, GPS measurements, and fi eld observations reveal that the central section of the Izmit (Turkey) fault that slipped with a supershear rupture velocity in the A.D. 1999, Mw7.4, Izmit earthquake began creeping aseismically following the earthquake. Rapid initial postseismic afterslip decayed logarithmically with time and appears to have reached a steady rate comparable to the preearthquake full fault-crossing rate, suggesting that it may continue for decades and possibly until late in the earthquake cycle. If confi rmed by future monitoring, these observations identify postseismic afterslip as a mechanism for initiating creep behavior along strike-slip faults. Long-term afterslip and/or creep has signifi cant implications for earthquake cycle models, recurrence intervals of large earthquakes, and accordingly, seismic hazard estimation along mature strike-slip faults, in particular for Istanbul which is believed to lie adjacent to a seismic gap along the North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara. © 2012 Geological Society of America.

  3. Onset of aseismic creep on major strike-slip faults

    KAUST Repository

    Çakir, Ziyadin

    2012-10-02

    Time series analysis of spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, GPS measurements, and fi eld observations reveal that the central section of the Izmit (Turkey) fault that slipped with a supershear rupture velocity in the A.D. 1999, Mw7.4, Izmit earthquake began creeping aseismically following the earthquake. Rapid initial postseismic afterslip decayed logarithmically with time and appears to have reached a steady rate comparable to the preearthquake full fault-crossing rate, suggesting that it may continue for decades and possibly until late in the earthquake cycle. If confi rmed by future monitoring, these observations identify postseismic afterslip as a mechanism for initiating creep behavior along strike-slip faults. Long-term afterslip and/or creep has signifi cant implications for earthquake cycle models, recurrence intervals of large earthquakes, and accordingly, seismic hazard estimation along mature strike-slip faults, in particular for Istanbul which is believed to lie adjacent to a seismic gap along the North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara. © 2012 Geological Society of America.

  4. PSpice Model of Lightning Strike to a Steel Reinforced Structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koone, Neil; Condren, Brian

    2003-01-01

    Surges and arcs from lightning can pose hazards to personnel and sensitive equipment, and processes. Steel reinforcement in structures can act as a Faraday cage mitigating lightning effects. Knowing a structure's response to a lightning strike allows hazards associated with lightning to be analyzed. A model of lightning's response in a steel reinforced structure has been developed using PSpice (a commercial circuit simulation). Segments of rebar are modeled as inductors and resistors in series. A program has been written to take architectural information of a steel reinforced structure and 'build' a circuit network that is analogous to the network of reinforcement in a facility. A severe current waveform (simulating a 99th percentile lightning strike), modeled as a current source, is introduced in the circuit network, and potential differences within the structure are determined using PSpice. A visual three-dimensional model of the facility displays the voltage distribution across the structure using color to indicate the potential difference relative to the floor. Clear air arcing distances can be calculated from the voltage distribution using a conservative value for the dielectric breakdown strength of air. Potential validation tests for the model will be presented

  5. Report on 14 Large Whales That Died due to Ship Strikes off the Coast of Sri Lanka, 2010–2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranil P. Nanayakkara

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The greatest threat to cetaceans in Sri Lankan waters was considered to be the direct take of small- and medium-sized cetaceans using harpoons and/or as bycatch until recently. However, ship strikes have probably been occurring for years but have not been recognized for what they were. For the current study, only animals with visible and prominent injuries related to collisions were evaluated. Data gathered between 2010 and 2014 included the species, morphometry, location, and date; tissue samples were collected for genetic analysis. When possible, a complete necropsy was conducted; otherwise, partial necropsies were conducted. The study confirmed 14 reports of ship strikes between whales and vessels out of all the strandings reported from 2010 to 2014. Most strikes (n=09, 64% involved blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus, although three other species were also documented, one Cuvier’s beaked whale, two great sperm whales, and one Bryde’s whale, as well as one unidentified baleen whale. Collision hotspots such as the southern waters of Sri Lanka are areas that warrant special attention in the form of vessel routing measures or speed limits, research on cetacean ecology, distribution, daily and seasonal movements, public service announcements, increased law enforcement presence, and other measures.

  6. Volume regulation in epithelia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Erik Hviid; Hoffmann, Else Kay

    2016-01-01

    to amphibian skin and mammalian cortical collecting tubule of low and intermediate osmotic permeability. Crosstalk between entrance and exit mechanisms interferes with volume regulation both at aniso-osmotic and iso-osmotic volume perturbations. It has been proposed that cell volume regulation is an intrinsic...... regulation are cloned. The volume-regulated anion channel (VRAC) exhibiting specific electrophysiological characteristics seems exclusive to serve cell volume regulation. This is contrary to K+ channels as well as cotransporters and exchange mechanisms that may serve both transepithelial transport and cell...... volume regulation. In the same cell, these functions may be maintained by different ion pathways that are separately regulated. RVD is often preceded by increase in cytosolic free Ca2+, probably via influx through TRP channels, but Ca2+ release from intracellular stores has also been observed. Cell...

  7. Foot strike and injury rates in endurance runners: a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daoud, Adam I; Geissler, Gary J; Wang, Frank; Saretsky, Jason; Daoud, Yahya A; Lieberman, Daniel E

    2012-07-01

    This retrospective study tests if runners who habitually forefoot strike have different rates of injury than runners who habitually rearfoot strike. We measured the strike characteristics of middle- and long-distance runners from a collegiate cross-country team and quantified their history of injury, including the incidence and rate of specific injuries, the severity of each injury, and the rate of mild, moderate, and severe injuries per mile run. Of the 52 runners studied, 36 (69%) primarily used a rearfoot strike and 16 (31%) primarily used a forefoot strike. Approximately 74% of runners experienced a moderate or severe injury each year, but those who habitually rearfoot strike had approximately twice the rate of repetitive stress injuries than individuals who habitually forefoot strike. Traumatic injury rates were not significantly different between the two groups. A generalized linear model showed that strike type, sex, race distance, and average miles per week each correlate significantly (P strike have significantly higher rates of repetitive stress injury than those who mostly forefoot strike. This study does not test the causal bases for this general difference. One hypothesis, which requires further research, is that the absence of a marked impact peak in the ground reaction force during a forefoot strike compared with a rearfoot strike may contribute to lower rates of injuries in habitual forefoot strikers.

  8. Causes of falls of hangingwall over gullies adjacent to stabilizing strike pillars

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Turner, PA

    1987-08-01

    Full Text Available This report discusses the occurrence of falls of ground in strike gullies. Falls of hangingwall over strike gullies on the up-dip side of strike stabilizing pillars in longwall mining systems were investigated. Gullies were examined in both...

  9. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  10. Structural characteristics and implication on tectonic evolution of the Daerbute strike-slip fault in West Junggar area, NW China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Kongyou; Pei, Yangwen; Li, Tianran; Wang, Xulong; Liu, Yin; Liu, Bo; Ma, Chao; Hong, Mei

    2018-03-01

    migration and initiation of the splay faults (e.g., the Great Jurassic Trough fault and the 973-pluton fault). These results indicate that there were probably two periods of faulting deformation for the Daerbute fault. By integrating our study with previous studies, we speculate that the Daerbute fault experienced a two-phase strike-slip faulting deformation, commencing with the initial dextral strike-slip faulting in mid-late Permian, and then being inversed to sinistral strike-slip faulting since the Triassic. The results of this study can provide useful insights for the regional tectonics and local hydrocarbon exploration.

  11. Fish passage assessment of an advanced hydropower turbine and conventional turbine using blade-strike modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Z.; Carlson, T. J.; Dauble, D. D.; Ploskey, G. R. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)

    2011-07-01

    Hydropower is the largest renewable energy source in the world. However, in the Columbia and Snake River basins, several species of Pacific salmon and steelhead have been listed for protection under the Endangered Species Act due to significant declines of fish population. Dam operators and design engineers are thus faced with the task of making hydroelectric facilities more fish friendly through changes in hydro-turbine design and operation. Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington, applied for relicensing from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to replace the 10 turbines at Wanapum Dam with advanced hydropower turbines that were designed to increase power generation and improve fish passage conditions. We applied both deterministic and stochastic blade-strike models to compare fish passage performance of the newly installed advanced turbine to an existing turbine. Modeled probabilities were compared to the results of a large-scale live-fish survival study and a Sensor Fish study under the same operational parameters. Overall, injury rates predicted by the deterministic model were higher than experimental rates of injury, while those predicted by the stochastic model were in close agreement with experimental results. Fish orientation at the time of entry into the plane of the leading edges of the turbine runner blades was an important factor contributing to uncertainty in modeled results. The advanced design turbine had slightly higher modeled injury rates than the existing turbine design; however, no statistical evidence suggested significant differences in blade-strike injuries between the two turbines, thus the hypothesis that direct fish survival rate through the advanced hydropower turbine is equal to or higher than that for fish passing through the conventional turbine could not be rejected. (authors)

  12. Fish Passage Assessment of an Advanced Hydropower Turbine and Conventional Turbine Using Blade-Strike Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiqun Deng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydropower is the largest renewable energy source in the world. However, in the Columbia and Snake River basins, several species of Pacific salmon and steelhead have been listed for protection under the Endangered Species Act due to significant declines of fish population. Dam operators and design engineers are thus faced with the task of making hydroelectric facilities more fish friendly through changes in hydro-turbine design and operation. Public Utility District No. 2 of Grant County, Washington, applied for relicensing from the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to replace the 10 turbines at Wanapum Dam with advanced hydropower turbines that were designed to increase power generation and improve fish passage conditions. We applied both deterministic and stochastic blade-strike models to compare fish passage performance of the newly installed advanced turbine to an existing turbine. Modeled probabilities were compared to the results of a large-scale live-fish survival study and a Sensor Fish study under the same operational parameters. Overall, injury rates predicted by the deterministic model were higher than experimental rates of injury, while those predicted by the stochastic model were in close agreement with experimental results. Fish orientation at the time of entry into the plane of the leading edges of the turbine runner blades was an important factor contributing to uncertainty in modeled results. The advanced design turbine had slightly higher modeled injury rates than the existing turbine design; however, no statistical evidence suggested significant differences in blade-strike injuries between the two turbines, thus the hypothesis that direct fish survival rate through the advanced hydropower turbine is equal to or higher than that for fish passing through the conventional turbine could not be rejected.

  13. Plantar loading changes with alterations in foot strike patterns during a single session in habitual rear foot strike female runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kernozek, Thomas W; Vannatta, Charles N; Gheidi, Naghmeh; Kraus, Sydnie; Aminaka, Naoko

    2016-03-01

    Characterize plantar loading parameters when habitually rear foot strike (RFS) runners change their pattern to a non-rear foot strike (NRFS). Experimental. University biomechanics laboratory. Twenty three healthy female runners (Age: 22.17 ± 1.64 yrs; Height: 168.91 ± 5.46 cm; Mass: 64.29 ± 7.11 kg). Plantar loading was measured using an in-sole pressure sensor while running down a 20-m runway restricted to a range of 3.52-3.89 m/s under two conditions, using the runner's typical RFS, and an adapted NRFS pattern. Repeated measures multivariate analysis of variance was performed to detect differences in loading between these two conditions. Force and pressure variables were greater in the forefoot and phalanx in NRFS and greater in the heel and mid foot in RFS pattern, but the total force imposed upon the whole foot and contact time remained similar between conditions. Total peak pressure was higher and contact area was lower during NRFS running. The primary finding of this investigation is that there are distinctly different plantar loads when changing from a RFS to NRFS during running. So, during a transition from RFS to a NRFS pattern; a period of acclimation should be considered to allow for adaptations to these novel loads incurred on plantar regions of the foot. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Probability theory a foundational course

    CERN Document Server

    Pakshirajan, R P

    2013-01-01

    This book shares the dictum of J. L. Doob in treating Probability Theory as a branch of Measure Theory and establishes this relation early. Probability measures in product spaces are introduced right at the start by way of laying the ground work to later claim the existence of stochastic processes with prescribed finite dimensional distributions. Other topics analysed in the book include supports of probability measures, zero-one laws in product measure spaces, Erdos-Kac invariance principle, functional central limit theorem and functional law of the iterated logarithm for independent variables, Skorohod embedding, and the use of analytic functions of a complex variable in the study of geometric ergodicity in Markov chains. This book is offered as a text book for students pursuing graduate programs in Mathematics and or Statistics. The book aims to help the teacher present the theory with ease, and to help the student sustain his interest and joy in learning the subject.

  15. VIBRATION ISOLATION SYSTEM PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smirnov Vladimir Alexandrovich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the probability analysis for a vibration isolation system of high-precision equipment, which is extremely sensitive to low-frequency oscillations even of submicron amplitude. The external sources of low-frequency vibrations may include the natural city background or internal low-frequency sources inside buildings (pedestrian activity, HVAC. Taking Gauss distribution into account, the author estimates the probability of the relative displacement of the isolated mass being still lower than the vibration criteria. This problem is being solved in the three dimensional space, evolved by the system parameters, including damping and natural frequency. According to this probability distribution, the chance of exceeding the vibration criteria for a vibration isolation system is evaluated. Optimal system parameters - damping and natural frequency - are being developed, thus the possibility of exceeding vibration criteria VC-E and VC-D is assumed to be less than 0.04.

  16. Approximation methods in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Čekanavičius, Vydas

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a wide range of well-known and less common methods used for estimating the accuracy of probabilistic approximations, including the Esseen type inversion formulas, the Stein method as well as the methods of convolutions and triangle function. Emphasising the correct usage of the methods presented, each step required for the proofs is examined in detail. As a result, this textbook provides valuable tools for proving approximation theorems. While Approximation Methods in Probability Theory will appeal to everyone interested in limit theorems of probability theory, the book is particularly aimed at graduate students who have completed a standard intermediate course in probability theory. Furthermore, experienced researchers wanting to enlarge their toolkit will also find this book useful.

  17. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  18. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G. D. (Gregory D.); Zucker, L. J. (Lauren J.)

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  19. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical and intuitive approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes This textbook provides a unique, balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes. Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area. This text combines a rigorous, calculus-based development of theory with a more intuitive approach that appeals to readers' sense of reason and logic, an approach developed through the author's many years of classroom experience. The text begins with three chapters that d

  20. Statistical probability tables CALENDF program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ribon, P.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of the probability tables is: - to obtain dense data representation - to calculate integrals by quadratures. They are mainly used in the USA for calculations by Monte Carlo and in the USSR and Europe for self-shielding calculations by the sub-group method. The moment probability tables, in addition to providing a more substantial mathematical basis and calculation methods, are adapted for condensation and mixture calculations, which are the crucial operations for reactor physics specialists. However, their extension is limited by the statistical hypothesis they imply. Efforts are being made to remove this obstacle, at the cost, it must be said, of greater complexity

  1. Probability, statistics, and queueing theory

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Arnold O

    1990-01-01

    This is a textbook on applied probability and statistics with computer science applications for students at the upper undergraduate level. It may also be used as a self study book for the practicing computer science professional. The successful first edition of this book proved extremely useful to students who need to use probability, statistics and queueing theory to solve problems in other fields, such as engineering, physics, operations research, and management science. The book has also been successfully used for courses in queueing theory for operations research students. This second edit

  2. Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probability and Statistics: 5 Questions is a collection of short interviews based on 5 questions presented to some of the most influential and prominent scholars in probability and statistics. We hear their views on the fields, aims, scopes, the future direction of research and how their work fits...... in these respects. Interviews with Nick Bingham, Luc Bovens, Terrence L. Fine, Haim Gaifman, Donald Gillies, James Hawthorne, Carl Hoefer, James M. Joyce, Joseph B. Kadane Isaac Levi, D.H. Mellor, Patrick Suppes, Jan von Plato, Carl Wagner, Sandy Zabell...

  3. Focus in High School Mathematics: Statistics and Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Reasoning about and making sense of statistics and probability are essential to students' future success. This volume belongs to a series that supports National Council of Teachers of Mathematics' (NCTM's) "Focus in High School Mathematics: Reasoning and Sense Making" by providing additional guidance for making reasoning and sense making part of…

  4. Magma storage in a strike-slip caldera.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxby, J; Gottsmann, J; Cashman, K; Gutiérrez, E

    2016-07-22

    Silicic calderas form during explosive volcanic eruptions when magma withdrawal triggers collapse along bounding faults. The nature of specific interactions between magmatism and tectonism in caldera-forming systems is, however, unclear. Regional stress patterns may control the location and geometry of magma reservoirs, which in turn may control the spatial and temporal development of faults. Here we provide new insight into strike-slip volcano-tectonic relations by analysing Bouguer gravity data from Ilopango caldera, El Salvador, which has a long history of catastrophic explosive eruptions. The observed low gravity beneath the caldera is aligned along the principal horizontal stress orientations of the El Salvador Fault Zone. Data inversion shows that the causative low-density structure extends to ca. 6 km depth, which we interpret as a shallow plumbing system comprising a fractured hydrothermal reservoir overlying a magmatic reservoir with vol% exsolved vapour. Fault-controlled localization of magma constrains potential vent locations for future eruptions.

  5. Striking an interim balance of the ongoing climate debate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schoenwiese, C.D.

    1995-01-01

    After the Berlin UN conference of the signatory states to the Climate Change Convention it seems appropriate to strike an interim balance of the ongoing debate about the global climate change, as it has meanwhile evolved from an issue discussed among experts to an issue of public debate. Such a ''progress report'' seems to be opportune also because doubts are mounting in the face of proclaimed countermeasures. The article therefore reviews and summarizes facts and figures, discussing emissions and concentrations, the physical properties of greenhouse gases, as well as uncertainties of model calculations and of interpretations of measured data. The current situation calls for application of alternative models and concepts, and consideration of natural processes in competition with man-made impacts on the climate within the framework of optimized interpretation, in order to have probabilistic data at hand for decision-making. (orig.) [de

  6. Migraine strikes as neuronal excitability reaches a tipping point.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marten Scheffer

    Full Text Available Self-propagating waves of cerebral neuronal firing, known as spreading depolarisations, are believed to be at the roots of migraine attacks. We propose that the start of spreading depolarisations corresponds to a critical transition that occurs when dynamic brain networks approach a tipping point. We show that this hypothesis is consistent with current pathogenetic insights and observed dynamics. Our view implies that migraine strikes when modulating factors further raise the neuronal excitability in genetically predisposed subjects to a level where even minor perturbations can trigger spreading depolarisations. A corollary is that recently discovered generic early warning indicators for critical transitions may be used to predict the onset of migraine attacks even before patients are clinically aware. This opens up new avenues for dissecting the mechanisms for the onset of migraine attacks and for identifying novel prophylactic treatment targets for the prevention of attacks.

  7. [Physiological changes and related nursing care issues during hunger strike].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Yeu-Shan; Chen, Shiu-Lien

    2005-08-01

    The use of hunger strike as a tool to assert grievances has been around for ages and has occasionally happened in the world. Hunger strikers' motives may differ, but their tool is the same--the voluntary refusal of food. Fasting not only results in body weight loss, but also in physiological and neurological function changes, and, of course, it may even threaten life. The health care of hunger strikers is complex. It involves medical staff, medical ethics and guidance for the management of the hunger strikers. Improper medical management may not only undermine the hunger striker's dignity but also risk further damage to his or her health. By understanding hunger strikers' physiological changes and related ethical issues, therefore, we aim to identify appropriate forms of nursing care management and guidance for the care of hunger strikers.

  8. Cancer Strikes Out!/Definitions/ Glossary/ Common Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... accounts for about 10,600 new cases of leukemia each year. It occurs in both adults and children. —Source: NIH ( For latest developments in treatment, see page 11 .) Summer 2008 Issue: Volume 3 ...

  9. Precision Strike Training in Lean Manufacturing: A Workplace Literacy Guidebook [and] Final Report on Precision Strike Workplace Literacy Training at CertainTeed Corporation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Alliance of Business, Inc., Washington, DC.

    CertainTeed's Precision Strike training program was designed to close the gaps between the current status of its workplace and where that work force needed to be to compete successfully in global markets. Precision Strike included Skills and Knowledge in Lifelong Learning (SKILL) customized, computerized lessons in basic skills, one-on-one…

  10. When strike comes to town... anticipated and actual behavioural reactions to a one-day, pre-announced, complete rail strike in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rietveld, P.; Exel, N.J.A.

    2009-01-01

    We conducted secondary analysis on data collected among rail users, days before and after a national rail strike in the Netherlands. Our aim was to compare anticipated and actual behavioural reactions to the rail strike, investigate associations with traveller and trip characteristics, and perceived

  11. Lightning Strike Induced Damage Mechanisms of Carbon Fiber Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawakami, Hirohide

    Composite materials have a wide application in aerospace, automotive, and other transportation industries, because of the superior structural and weight performances. Since carbon fiber reinforced polymer composites possess a much lower electrical conductivity as compared to traditional metallic materials utilized for aircraft structures, serious concern about damage resistance/tolerance against lightning has been rising. Main task of this study is to clarify the lightning damage mechanism of carbon fiber reinforced epoxy polymer composites to help further development of lightning strike protection. The research on lightning damage to carbon fiber reinforced polymer composites is quite challenging, and there has been little study available until now. In order to tackle this issue, building block approach was employed. The research was started with the development of supporting technologies such as a current impulse generator to simulate a lightning strike in a laboratory. Then, fundamental electrical properties and fracture behavior of CFRPs exposed to high and low level current impulse were investigated using simple coupon specimens, followed by extensive parametric investigations in terms of different prepreg materials frequently used in aerospace industry, various stacking sequences, different lightning intensity, and lightning current waveforms. It revealed that the thermal resistance capability of polymer matrix was one of the most influential parameters on lightning damage resistance of CFRPs. Based on the experimental findings, the semi-empirical analysis model for predicting the extent of lightning damage was established. The model was fitted through experimental data to determine empirical parameters and, then, showed a good capability to provide reliable predictions for other test conditions and materials. Finally, structural element level lightning tests were performed to explore more practical situations. Specifically, filled-hole CFRP plates and patch

  12. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  13. Conditional Independence in Applied Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Paul E.

    This material assumes the user has the background provided by a good undergraduate course in applied probability. It is felt that introductory courses in calculus, linear algebra, and perhaps some differential equations should provide the requisite experience and proficiency with mathematical concepts, notation, and argument. The document is…

  14. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  15. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  16. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  17. DECOFF Probabilities of Failed Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas

    2015-01-01

    A statistical procedure of estimation of Probabilities of Failed Operations is described and exemplified using ECMWF weather forecasts and SIMO output from Rotor Lift test case models. Also safety factor influence is investigated. DECOFF statistical method is benchmarked against standard Alpha-factor...

  18. Risk estimation using probability machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  19. Probability and statistics: A reminder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, B.

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of these lectures is to provide the reader with the tools needed to data analysis in the framework of physics experiments. Basic concepts are introduced together with examples of application in experimental physics. The lecture is divided into two parts: probability and statistics. It is build on the introduction from 'data analysis in experimental sciences' given in [1]. (authors)

  20. Nash equilibrium with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groes, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1998-01-01

    We generalize the concept of Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies for strategic form games to allow for ambiguity in the players' expectations. In contrast to other contributions, we model ambiguity by means of so-called lower probability measures or belief functions, which makes it possible...

  1. On probability-possibility transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  2. THE EFFECTS OF HEIGHT AND DISTANCE ON THE FORCE PRODUCTION AND ACCELERATION IN MARTIAL ARTS STRIKES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia A. Bir

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Almost all cultures have roots in some sort of self defence system and yet there is relatively little research in this area, outside of a sports related environment. This project investigated different applications of strikes from Kung Fu practitioners that have not been addressed before in the literature. Punch and palm strikes were directly compared from different heights and distances, with the use of a load cell, accelerometers, and high speed video. The data indicated that the arm accelerations of both strikes were similar, although the force and resulting acceleration of the target were significantly greater for the palm strikes. Additionally, the relative height at which the strike was delivered was also investigated. The overall conclusion is that the palm strike is a more effective strike for transferring force to an object. It can also be concluded that an attack to the chest would be ideal for maximizing impact force and moving an opponent off balance

  3. School and conference on probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawler, G.F.

    2004-01-01

    This volume includes expanded lecture notes from the School and Conference in Probability Theory held at ICTP in May, 2001. Probability theory is a very large area, too large for a single school and conference. The organizers, G. Lawler, C. Newman, and S. Varadhan chose to focus on a number of active research areas that have their roots in statistical physics. The pervasive theme in these lectures is trying to find the large time or large space behaviour of models defined on discrete lattices. Usually the definition of the model is relatively simple: either assigning a particular weight to each possible configuration (equilibrium statistical mechanics) or specifying the rules under which the system evolves (nonequilibrium statistical mechanics). Interacting particle systems is the area of probability that studies the evolution of particles (either finite or infinite in number) under random motions. The evolution of particles depends on the positions of the other particles; often one assumes that it depends only on the particles that are close to the particular particle. Thomas Liggett's lectures give an introduction to this very large area. Claudio Landim's follows up by discussing hydrodynamic limits of particle systems. The goal of this area is to describe the long time, large system size dynamics in terms of partial differential equations. The area of random media is concerned with the properties of materials or environments that are not homogeneous. Percolation theory studies one of the simplest stated models for impurities - taking a lattice and removing some of the vertices or bonds. Luiz Renato G. Fontes and Vladas Sidoravicius give a detailed introduction to this area. Random walk in random environment combines two sources of randomness - a particle performing stochastic motion in which the transition probabilities depend on position and have been chosen from some probability distribution. Alain-Sol Sznitman gives a survey of recent developments in this

  4. Effects of Strike-Slip Fault Segmentation on Earthquake Energy and Seismic Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madden, E. H.; Cooke, M. L.; Savage, H. M.; McBeck, J.

    2014-12-01

    Many major strike-slip faults are segmented along strike, including those along plate boundaries in California and Turkey. Failure of distinct fault segments at depth may be the source of multiple pulses of seismic radiation observed for single earthquakes. However, how and when segmentation affects fault behavior and energy release is the basis of many outstanding questions related to the physics of faulting and seismic hazard. These include the probability for a single earthquake to rupture multiple fault segments and the effects of segmentation on earthquake magnitude, radiated seismic energy, and ground motions. Using numerical models, we quantify components of the earthquake energy budget, including the tectonic work acting externally on the system, the energy of internal rock strain, the energy required to overcome fault strength and initiate slip, the energy required to overcome frictional resistance during slip, and the radiated seismic energy. We compare the energy budgets of systems of two en echelon fault segments with various spacing that include both releasing and restraining steps. First, we allow the fault segments to fail simultaneously and capture the effects of segmentation geometry on the earthquake energy budget and on the efficiency with which applied displacement is accommodated. Assuming that higher efficiency correlates with higher probability for a single, larger earthquake, this approach has utility for assessing the seismic hazard of segmented faults. Second, we nucleate slip along a weak portion of one fault segment and let the quasi-static rupture propagate across the system. Allowing fractures to form near faults in these models shows that damage develops within releasing steps and promotes slip along the second fault, while damage develops outside of restraining steps and can prohibit slip along the second fault. Work is consumed in both the propagation of and frictional slip along these new fractures, impacting the energy available

  5. Does charge transfer correlate with ignition probability?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holdstock, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Flammable or explosive atmospheres exist in many industrial environments. The risk of ignition caused by electrostatic discharges is very real and there has been extensive study of the incendiary nature of sparks and brush discharges. It is clear that in order to ignite a gas, an amount of energy needs to be delivered to a certain volume of gas within a comparatively short time. It is difficult to measure the energy released in an electrostatic discharge directly, but it is possible to approximate the energy in a spark generated from a well defined electrical circuit. The spark energy required to ignite a gas, vapour or dust cloud can be determined by passing such sparks through them. There is a relationship between energy and charge in a capacitive circuit and so it is possible to predict whether or not a spark discharge will cause an ignition by measuring the charge transferred in the spark. Brush discharges are in many ways less well defined than sparks. Nevertheless, some work has been done that has established a relationship between charge transferred in brush discharges and the probability of igniting a flammable atmosphere. The question posed by this paper concerns whether such a relationship holds true in all circumstances and if there is a universal correlation between charge transfer and ignition probability. Data is presented on discharges from textile materials that go some way to answering this question.

  6. Large deviations and idempotent probability

    CERN Document Server

    Puhalskii, Anatolii

    2001-01-01

    In the view of many probabilists, author Anatolii Puhalskii''s research results stand among the most significant achievements in the modern theory of large deviations. In fact, his work marked a turning point in the depth of our understanding of the connections between the large deviation principle (LDP) and well-known methods for establishing weak convergence results.Large Deviations and Idempotent Probability expounds upon the recent methodology of building large deviation theory along the lines of weak convergence theory. The author develops an idempotent (or maxitive) probability theory, introduces idempotent analogues of martingales (maxingales), Wiener and Poisson processes, and Ito differential equations, and studies their properties. The large deviation principle for stochastic processes is formulated as a certain type of convergence of stochastic processes to idempotent processes. The author calls this large deviation convergence.The approach to establishing large deviation convergence uses novel com...

  7. Probability biases as Bayesian inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre; C. R. Martins

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

  8. Probability matching and strategy availability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Derek J; James, Greta

    2010-09-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought to their attention, more participants subsequently engage in maximizing. Third, matchers are more likely than maximizers to base decisions in other tasks on their initial intuitions, suggesting that they are more inclined to use a choice strategy that comes to mind quickly. These results indicate that a substantial subset of probability matchers are victims of "underthinking" rather than "overthinking": They fail to engage in sufficient deliberation to generate a superior alternative to the matching strategy that comes so readily to mind.

  9. Probability as a Physical Motive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Martin

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent theoretical progress in nonequilibrium thermodynamics, linking thephysical principle of Maximum Entropy Production (“MEP” to the information-theoretical“MaxEnt” principle of scientific inference, together with conjectures from theoreticalphysics that there may be no fundamental causal laws but only probabilities for physicalprocesses, and from evolutionary theory that biological systems expand “the adjacentpossible” as rapidly as possible, all lend credence to the proposition that probability shouldbe recognized as a fundamental physical motive. It is further proposed that spatial order andtemporal order are two aspects of the same thing, and that this is the essence of the secondlaw of thermodynamics.

  10. San Andreas-sized Strike-slip Fault on Europa

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-01-01

    This mosaic of the south polar region of Jupiter's moon Europa shows the northern 290 kilometers (180 miles) of a strike-slip fault named Astypalaea Linea. The entire fault is about 810 kilometers (500 miles) long, about the size of the California portion of the San Andreas fault, which runs from the California-Mexico border north to the San Francisco Bay. In a strike-slip fault, two crustal blocks move horizontally past one another, similar to two opposing lanes of traffic. Overall motion along the fault seems to have followed a continuous narrow crack along the feature's entire length, with a path resembling steps on a staircase crossing zones that have been pulled apart. The images show that about 50 kilometers (30 miles) of displacement have taken place along the fault. The fault's opposite sides can be reconstructed like a puzzle, matching the shape of the sides and older, individual cracks and ridges broken by its movements. [figure removed for brevity, see original site] The red line marks the once active central crack of the fault. The black line outlines the fault zone, including material accumulated in the regions which have been pulled apart. Bends in the fault have allowed the surface to be pulled apart. This process created openings through which warmer, softer ice from below Europa's brittle ice shell surface, or frozen water from a possible subsurface ocean, could reach the surface. This upwelling of material formed large areas of new ice within the boundaries of the original fault. A similar pulling-apart phenomenon can be observed in the geological trough surrounding California's Salton Sea, in Death Valley and the Dead Sea. In those cases, the pulled-apart regions can include upwelled materials, but may be filled mostly by sedimentary and eroded material from above. One theory is that fault motion on Europa is induced by the pull of variable daily tides generated by Jupiter's gravitational tug on Europa. Tidal tension opens the fault and

  11. Logic, Probability, and Human Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction. The nature of deductive reasoning To be rational is to be able to make deductions...3–6] and they underlie mathematics, science, and tech- nology [7–10]. Plato claimed that emotions upset reason- ing. However, individuals in the grip...fundamental to human rationality . So, if counterexamples to its principal predictions occur, the theory will at least explain its own refutation

  12. Probability matching and strategy availability

    OpenAIRE

    J. Koehler, Derek; Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta

    2010-01-01

    Findings from two experiments indicate that probability matching in sequential choice arises from an asymmetry in strategy availability: The matching strategy comes readily to mind, whereas a superior alternative strategy, maximizing, does not. First, compared with the minority who spontaneously engage in maximizing, the majority of participants endorse maximizing as superior to matching in a direct comparison when both strategies are described. Second, when the maximizing strategy is brought...

  13. Effect of public transport strikes on air pollution levels in Barcelona (Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basagaña, Xavier; Triguero-Mas, Margarita; Agis, David; Pérez, Noemí; Reche, Cristina; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier

    2018-01-01

    Public transport strikes can lead to an increase of the number of private vehicle trips, which in turn can increase air pollution levels. We aimed to estimate the change in air pollution concentrations during public transport strikes in the city of Barcelona (Spain). Data on strikes of the metro, train or bus systems were collected from government records (2005-2016). We collected daily concentrations of NOx; particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10μm (PM10), 2.5μm (PM2.5), and 1μm (PM1); particle number concentration (N); black carbon (BC) and CO from research and official monitoring stations. We fitted linear regression models for each pollutant with the strike indicator as an independent variable, and models were adjusted for day of the week, month, year, and holiday periods. During the study period, there were 208days affected by a strike of the metro (28), train (106) or bus (91) systems. Half of the strikes were partial, most of them were single-day strikes, there was little overlap between strikes of the different transport systems, and all strikes had to comply with mandatory minimal services. When pooling all types of strikes, NOx and BC showed higher levels during strike days in comparison with non-strike days (increase between 4.1% and 7.7%, with higher increases for NO). The increases in these concentrations were more evident during full day and multiday metro strikes. In conclusion, alterations in public transport have consequences on air quality. This highlights the importance of public transport in reducing air pollution concentrations in cities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Earthquake Activities Along the Strike-Slip Fault System on the Thailand-Myanmar Border

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santi Pailoplee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the present-day seismicity along the strike-slip fault system on the Thailand-Myanmar border. Using the earthquake catalogue the earthquake parameters representing seismic activities were evaluated in terms of the possible maximum magnitude, return period and earthquake occurrence probabilities. Three different hazardous areas could be distinguished from the obtained results. The most seismic-prone area was located along the northern segment of the fault system and can generate earthquakes of magnitude 5.0, 5.8, and 6.8 mb in the next 5, 10, and 50 years, respectively. The second most-prone area was the southern segment where earthquakes of magnitude 5.0, 6.0, and 7.0 mb might be generated every 18, 60, and 300 years, respectively. For the central segment, there was less than 30 and 10% probability that 6.0- and 7.0-mb earthquakes will be generated in the next 50 years. With regards to the significant infrastructures (dams in the vicinity, the operational Wachiralongkorn dam is situated in a low seismic hazard area with a return period of around 30 - 3000 years for a 5.0 - 7.0 mb earthquake. In contrast, the Hut Gyi, Srinakarin and Tha Thung Na dams are seismically at risk for earthquakes of mb 6.4 - 6.5 being generated in the next 50 years. Plans for a seismic-retrofit should therefore be completed and implemented while seismic monitoring in this region is indispensable.

  15. MRI findings of Wernicke encephalopathy revisited due to hunger strike

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unlu, Ercument [Department of Radiology, Trakya University School of Medicine, Mimar Sinan m, Muammer Aksoy c, Yorulmaz apt, No 50, D-1 22030 Edirne (Turkey)]. E-mail: drercument@yahoo.com; Cakir, Bilge [Department of Radiology, Trakya University School of Medicine, Mimar Sinan m, Muammer Aksoy c, Yorulmaz apt, No 50, D-1 22030 Edirne (Turkey); Asil, Talip [Department of Neurology, Trakya University School of Medicine, Edirne (Turkey)

    2006-01-15

    Background and Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the characteristic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings among a group of patients who presented with Wernicke encephalopathy (WE) due to the neurological complications of a long-term hunger strike (HS). Methods: MRI studies also including the fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequence and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) of six male patients with WE aged from 25 to 38 years (mean age 31 years) were evaluated. Results: In all subjects, T2-weighted sequences, FLAIR and DWI revealed a signal hyperintensity within the posteromedial thalami and surrounding the third ventricle. In particular, on coronal images, the hyperintense areas around the third ventricle showed a suggestive 'double wing' configuration. We observed an increased signal on proton-density and T2-weighted images in the mamillary bodies of three patients. Four patients demonstrated additional hyperintensities within the periaqueductal region and/or the tectal plate. At least one lesion area in five of six patients demonstrated contrast enhancement. Conclusion: The consistent imaging findings of our study suggest that MRI is a reliable means of diagnosing WE. Acute WE is sometimes underdiagnosed, yet early diagnosis and treatment of WE is crucial in order to avoid persistent brain damage. MRI, including postcontrast T1-weighted imaging, DWI beneath standardized T2-weighted imaging, and FLAIR sequences may prove to be a valuable adjunct to clinical diagnosis and to provide additional information in acute and/or subacute WE.

  16. Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Necci, Amos; Argenti, Francesca; Landucci, Gabriele; Cozzani, Valerio

    2014-01-01

    Severe Natech accidents may be triggered by lightning strike affecting storage tanks containing relevant inventories of hazardous materials. The present study focused on the identification of event sequences and accident scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks. Reference event trees, validated using past accident analysis, are provided to describe the specific accident chains identified, accounting for reference protection and mitigation safety barriers usually adopted in current industrial practice. An overall methodology was outlined to allow the calculation of the expected frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on atmospheric storage tanks, taking into account the expected performance of available safety barriers. The methodology was applied to a case study in order to better understand the data that may be obtained and their importance in the framework of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and of the risk management of industrial facilities with respect to external hazards due to natural events. - Highlights: • Event sequences following lightning impact on atmospheric tanks were identified. • Reference event trees including standard safety barriers were obtained. • Safety barriers applied in industrial practice were assessed to quantify event trees. • Frequencies of final scenarios following lightning impact on tanks were calculated. • Natech scenarios caused by lightning have an important influence on risk profiles

  17. Electric converters of electromagnetic strike machine with capacitor supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usanov, K. M.; Volgin, A. V.; Kargin, V. A.; Moiseev, A. P.; Chetverikov, E. A.

    2018-03-01

    The application of pulse linear electromagnetic engines in small power strike machines (energy impact is 0.01...1.0 kJ), where the characteristic mode of rare beats (pulse seismic vibrator, the arch crash device bins bulk materials), is quite effective. At the same time, the technical and economic performance of such machines is largely determined by the ability of the power source to provide a large instantaneous power of the supply pulses in the winding of the linear electromagnetic motor. The use of intermediate energy storage devices in power systems of rare-shock LEME makes it possible to obtain easily large instantaneous powers, forced energy conversion, and increase the performance of the machine. A capacitor power supply of a pulsed source of seismic waves is proposed for the exploration of shallow depths. The sections of the capacitor storage (CS) are connected to the winding of the linear electromagnetic motor by thyristor dischargers, the sequence of activation of which is determined by the control device. The charge of the capacitors to the required voltage is made directly from the battery source, or through the converter from a battery source with a smaller number of batteries.

  18. MRI findings of Wernicke encephalopathy revisited due to hunger strike

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unlu, Ercument; Cakir, Bilge; Asil, Talip

    2006-01-01

    Background and Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the characteristic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings among a group of patients who presented with Wernicke encephalopathy (WE) due to the neurological complications of a long-term hunger strike (HS). Methods: MRI studies also including the fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequence and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) of six male patients with WE aged from 25 to 38 years (mean age 31 years) were evaluated. Results: In all subjects, T2-weighted sequences, FLAIR and DWI revealed a signal hyperintensity within the posteromedial thalami and surrounding the third ventricle. In particular, on coronal images, the hyperintense areas around the third ventricle showed a suggestive 'double wing' configuration. We observed an increased signal on proton-density and T2-weighted images in the mamillary bodies of three patients. Four patients demonstrated additional hyperintensities within the periaqueductal region and/or the tectal plate. At least one lesion area in five of six patients demonstrated contrast enhancement. Conclusion: The consistent imaging findings of our study suggest that MRI is a reliable means of diagnosing WE. Acute WE is sometimes underdiagnosed, yet early diagnosis and treatment of WE is crucial in order to avoid persistent brain damage. MRI, including postcontrast T1-weighted imaging, DWI beneath standardized T2-weighted imaging, and FLAIR sequences may prove to be a valuable adjunct to clinical diagnosis and to provide additional information in acute and/or subacute WE

  19. Cellular nonlinear networks for strike-point localization at JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arena, P.; Fortuna, L.; Bruno, M.; Vagliasindi, G.; Murari, A.; Andrew, P.; Mazzitelli, G.

    2005-01-01

    At JET, the potential of fast image processing for real-time purposes is thoroughly investigated. Particular attention is devoted to smart sensors based on system on chip technology. The data of the infrared cameras were processed with a chip implementing a cellular nonlinear network (CNN) structure so as to support and complement the magnetic diagnostics in the real-time localization of the strike-point position in the divertor. The circuit consists of two layers of complementary metal-oxide semiconductor components, the first being the sensor and the second implementing the actual CNN. This innovative hardware has made it possible to determine the position of the maximum thermal load with a time resolution of the order of 30 ms. Good congruency has been found with the measurement from the thermocouples in the divertor, proving the potential of the infrared data in locating the region of the maximum thermal load. The results are also confirmed by JET magnetic codes, both those used for the equilibrium reconstructions and those devoted to the identification of the plasma boundary

  20. [Lightning strike and lesions outside the brain: Clinical cases and a review of the literature].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, A; Lesourd, A; Cabane, J

    2015-01-01

    Every year, 240,000 people are struck by lightning worldwide, causing injuries leading to significant handicaps. Most of the symptoms involve brain lesions; neuromuscular sequelae and myelopathy are less common. We describe five cases of patients struck by lightning with various clinical presentations. The first patient presented painful paresthesias in both upper limbs that disappeared 18 months later; the injury was a plexopathy. The second patient developed proximal weakness in the upper-left limb due to a myopathy. Two patients presented with various motor weaknesses in the lower limbs due to motor neuron disease and myelopathy. The last patient had a transient tetraplegy, which resolved in 5minutes; the diagnosis was keraunoparalysis. Lightning injuries can have many consequences depending on the different mechanisms involved. The clinical presentation is often due to a very focal lesion without any secondary extension. Motor neuron disease probably results from post-traumatic myelopathy. We discuss the ALS-electrocution association, frequently described in the literature. Various peripheral nerve and spinal cord lesions can be seen in lightning strike victims involving myelopathy, motor neuron, muscle and plexus. Clinical syndromes are often atypical but outcome is often favorable. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. [Biometric bases: basic concepts of probability calculation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinya, E

    1998-04-26

    The author gives or outline of the basic concepts of probability theory. The bases of the event algebra, definition of the probability, the classical probability model and the random variable are presented.

  2. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  3. Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Olofsson, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a unique and balanced approach to probability, statistics, and stochastic processes.   Readers gain a solid foundation in all three fields that serves as a stepping stone to more advanced investigations into each area.  The Second Edition features new coverage of analysis of variance (ANOVA), consistency and efficiency of estimators, asymptotic theory for maximum likelihood estimators, empirical distribution function and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, general linear models, multiple comparisons, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Brownian motion, martingales, and

  4. Probability, statistics, and computational science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerenwinkel, Niko; Siebourg, Juliane

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we review basic concepts from probability theory and computational statistics that are fundamental to evolutionary genomics. We provide a very basic introduction to statistical modeling and discuss general principles, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. Markov chains, hidden Markov models, and Bayesian network models are introduced in more detail as they occur frequently and in many variations in genomics applications. In particular, we discuss efficient inference algorithms and methods for learning these models from partially observed data. Several simple examples are given throughout the text, some of which point to models that are discussed in more detail in subsequent chapters.

  5. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.

    2006-01-01

    Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values

  6. Dictionary Based Segmentation in Volumes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emerson, Monica Jane; Jespersen, Kristine Munk; Jørgensen, Peter Stanley

    2015-01-01

    We present a method for supervised volumetric segmentation based on a dictionary of small cubes composed of pairs of intensity and label cubes. Intensity cubes are small image volumes where each voxel contains an image intensity. Label cubes are volumes with voxelwise probabilities for a given...... label. The segmentation process is done by matching a cube from the volume, of the same size as the dictionary intensity cubes, to the most similar intensity dictionary cube, and from the associated label cube we get voxel-wise label probabilities. Probabilities from overlapping cubes are averaged...... and hereby we obtain a robust label probability encoding. The dictionary is computed from labeled volumetric image data based on weighted clustering. We experimentally demonstrate our method using two data sets from material science – a phantom data set of a solid oxide fuel cell simulation for detecting...

  7. The General Strike - An Artist Talk on the Work of Santiago Sierra & Claire Fontaine

    OpenAIRE

    Mansoor, Jaleh

    2012-01-01

    The General Strike, the organized refusal to work among a critical mass of laborers, has been attendant upon and responsive to the capitalist form of accumulation since the latter’s inception. Having variously emerged and receded as a broadly recognized means of resistance since the mid 19th century, the potential of a general strike to precipitate capitalism's inherent tendency to crisis was forcefully expressed by the anti-austerity movement in Greece and in Spain in 2012. A general strike ...

  8. Comparison of foot strike patterns of barefoot and minimally shod runners in a recreational road race

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Larson

    2014-01-01

    Background: Previous studies of foot strike patterns of distance runners in road races have typically found that the overwhelming majority of shod runners initially contact the ground on the rearfoot. However, none of these studies has attempted to quantify foot strike patterns of barefoot or minimally shod runners. This study classifies foot strike patterns of barefoot and minimally shod runners in a recreational road race. Methods: High-speed video footage was obtained of 169 barefoot an...

  9. Review of the Lightning Strike Incident at Launch Complex 37 on July 27, 1967, and Comparison to a Gemini Lightning Strike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn, J. A.

    1967-01-01

    The Launch Complex 37 lightning strike of July 27, 1967, was reviewed and compared to a similar incident on the Gemini Program. Available data indicate little likelihood of damaging currents having been present in SA-204 Launch Vehicle or the ground equipment during the July 27th incident. Based on the results of subsystem and system testing after the strike, anticipated results of future testing, the six months elapsed time between the strike-and launch, and the fact that much of the critical airborne electrical/electronic equipment has been removed since the strike for other reasons, no new actions are considered necessary at this time in the Gemini case, significant failures occurred in both airborne and ground circuits. Due to the resultant semi, condlictor uncertainty, and the relatively' short time prior to planned launch, all critical airborne components containing semiconduetors were replaced, and a sophisticated data comparison task was implemented.

  10. Probability and information theory, with applications to radar

    CERN Document Server

    Woodward, P M; Higinbotham, W

    1964-01-01

    Electronics and Instrumentation, Second Edition, Volume 3: Probability and Information Theory with Applications to Radar provides information pertinent to the development on research carried out in electronics and applied physics. This book presents the established mathematical techniques that provide the code in which so much of the mathematical theory of electronics and radar is expressed.Organized into eight chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the geometry of probability distributions in which moments play a significant role. This text then examines the mathematical methods in

  11. ‘The Nairobi General Strike [1950]: from protest to insurgency’

    OpenAIRE

    Hyde, David

    2002-01-01

    The Nairobi General Strike [1950] was the culmination of Kenya’s post war strike wave and urban upheaval. An unprecedented upsurge occurred with the general strikes in Mombasa [1947] led by the African Workers Federation [A.W.F.] and in Nairobi by the East African Trades Union Congress [E.A.T.U.C.]. While this has been termed and treated as a city wide strike, there is enough evidence to suggest a movement that went some way beyond Nairobi. The extent of the cohesion and reciprocal impacts am...

  12. Relationship between foot strike pattern, running speed, and footwear condition in recreational distance runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Roy T H; Wong, Rodney Y L; Chung, Tim K W; Choi, R T; Leung, Wendy W Y; Shek, Diana H Y

    2017-06-01

    Compared to competitive runners, recreational runners appear to be more prone to injuries, which have been associated with foot strike patterns. Surprisingly, only few studies had examined the foot strike patterns outside laboratories. Therefore, this study compared the foot strike patterns in recreational runners at outdoor tracks with previously reported data. We also investigated the relationship between foot strike pattern, speed, and footwear in this cohort. Among 434 recreational runners analysed, 89.6% of them landed with rearfoot strike (RFS). Only 6.9 and 3.5% landed with midfoot and forefoot, respectively. A significant shift towards non-RFS was observed in our cohort, when compared with previously reported data. When speed increased by 1 m/s, the odds of having forefoot strike and midfoot strike relative to RFS increased by 2.3 times and 2.6 times, respectively. Runners were 9.2 times more likely to run with a forefoot strike in minimalists compared to regular running shoes, although 70% of runners in minimalists continued to use a RFS. These findings suggest that foot strike pattern may differ across running conditions and runners should consider these factors in order to mitigate potential injury.

  13. A model of high-rate indentation of a cylindrical striking pin into a deformable body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalazinskaya, E. A.; Zalazinsky, A. G.

    2017-12-01

    Mathematical modeling of an impact and high-rate indentation to a significant depth of a flat-faced hard cylindrical striking pin into a massive deformable target body is carried out. With the application of the kinematic extreme theorem of the plasticity theory and the kinetic energy variation theorem, the phase trajectories of the striking pin are calculated, the initial velocity of the striking pin in the body, the limit values of the inlet duct length, and the depth of striking pin penetration into the target are determined.

  14. Lectures on probability and statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another

  15. The Chinese nuclear arsenal and its second-strike capability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cabestan, Jean-Pierre

    2013-03-01

    It is well known that China possesses a second- strike capability, but a great deal of uncertainty persists on the subject. Over the last few years, without officially adjusting its doctrine, China has nonetheless defined its objectives. In April 2010, the People's Liberation Army Daily indicated that China needed such a capability and contended that ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) would constitute the safest means of delivery. In the same year, the IISS estimated that the People's Liberation Army was in possession of 90 ICBMs (66 ground-based missiles and 24 SLBMs) and 400 IRBM mainly aimed at Taiwan and Japan. The Pentagon's 2012 report proposed 50-75 ICBMs and 80 -120 IRBM and MRBM. While it is established that the People's Liberation Army is developing Jin class submarines (type-094, of which there are currently two in service, which will soon rise to five) and is developing solid-propellant missiles, which could be activated more quickly, not a great deal is known about the progress of these two projects. The JL-2 (7400 km), which is mounted on SSBNs, is still being tested. In parallel, the traditional principle to which China adheres - no first use of nuclear weapons - seems to have been slightly dented. Thus, in January 2011, the Japanese press agency Kyodo (relayed by Stratfor) reported that the People's Liberation Army had lowered the threshold for use of its strategic weapons: it could henceforth envisage a preventive nuclear strike against a nuclear power that had by conventional means destroyed key strategic targets on its territory, such as a nuclear power station, a dam, or a large city, having provided prior warning to the aggressor. But what most worries the U.S. and its Asian allies, particularly the Japanese, is the quasi-total opacity of the Chinese military nuclear programme. While in April 2010, the United States and Russia signed a treaty limiting their number of strategic weapons to 1550 by 2018, China considers that its programme cannot

  16. Positive Emotions Associated with "Counter-Strike" Game Playing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Mirim; Heard, Rob; Suo, Chao; Chow, Chin Moi

    2012-10-01

    Digital game playing engages people for long periods of time. The pleasure offered by digital games may explain the players' consumption of this activity. Games may elicit both positive and negative emotions, which can be measured by encephalography (EEG). The EEG alpha asymmetry index (AI) is different in positive and negative emotions and so may be used to distinguish positive from negative emotions that occur during gaming. We hypothesized that the "Counter-Strike" (CS) game (Valve Software, Bellevue, WA) is pleasurable and demonstrable with a positive EEG AI. Twelve male participants ages 18-30 years underwent EEG recordings continuously during and postgame. EEG was also recorded pregame for control conditions of baseline (sitting on a chair staring at a blank wall), movement (moving fingers on the computer keyboard with a blank screen), sound (listening to the sound of the CS game with a blank screen), and screen (watching the CS game without playing). Self-ratings of emotional responses were completed at pre-, during, and postgame. A significant decrease in the EEG AI was observed under the screen condition compared with baseline, whereas an increase was observed postgame compared with the screen condition. The participants demonstrated a positive EEG AI following the "shoot" events (shoot opponents) and negative emotions after the "being shot" events. Subjective ratings of emotional response indicated happiness during and postgame, but anger and arousal were reported only during the game. The overall results are consistent with the hypothesis that predominantly positive emotional reactions are elicited from playing the CS game and concur with positive subjective ratings of happiness. Future studies may explore the relationship of game pleasure and obsessive game play.

  17. The Empire Strikes Back. Russian National Cinema After 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Rawski

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Empire Strikes Back. Russian National Cinema After 2005 The paper provides critical analysis of the latest wave of Russian national cinema (2005-2013, considered one of key instruments of Vladimir Putin’s nation-building cultural policy. The analysis, focused mostly on historical film and war film, reveals the concept of an ‘imperial nation’ as the main concept underlying this policy. The new Russian nation-concept is calculated to binding elements from two former Russian imperial traditions: tradition of the Russian Empire and the Soviet tradition, thus trying to overcome the identity crisis in contemporary Russia.   Imperium kontratakuje. Rosyjskie kino narodowe po 2005 roku Artykuł zajmuje się krytyczną analizą filmów najnowszej fali rosyjskiego kina narodowego (2005-2013, uważanej tu za jedno z kluczowych narzędzi polityki kulturalnej Władimira Putina obliczonej na budowanie narodu. Autorzy artykułu skupiają się przede wszystkim na filmie historycznym i wojennym, odsłaniając pojęcie „imperialnego narodu” jako konceptu stojącego u podstaw oficjalnej polityki. Nowe rosyjskie pojęcie narodu łączy w sobie dwie tradycje rosyjskie: tradycję Imperium Rosyjskiego oraz tradycję Związku Radzieckiego, próbując w ten sposób przezwyciężyć kryzys tożsamościowy współczesnej Rosji.

  18. Assessment of performing an MST strike in Tank 21H

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poirier, Michael R.

    2014-09-29

    Previous Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) tank mixing studies performed for the Small Column Ion Exchange (SCIX) project have shown that 3 Submersible Mixer Pumps (SMPs) installed in Tank 41 are sufficient to support actinide removal by MST sorption as well as subsequent resuspension and removal of settled solids. Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is pursuing MST addition into Tank 21 as part of the Large Tank Strike (LTS) project. The preliminary scope for LTS involves the use of three standard slurry pumps (installed in N, SE, and SW risers) in a Type IV tank. Due to the differences in tank size, internal interferences, and pump design, a separate mixing evaluation is required to determine if the proposed configuration will allow for MST suspension and strontium and actinide sorption. The author performed the analysis by reviewing drawings for Tank 21 [W231023] and determining the required cleaning radius or zone of influence for the pumps. This requirement was compared with previous pilot-scale MST suspension data collected for SCIX that determined the cleaning radius, or zone of influence, as a function of pump operating parameters. The author also reviewed a previous Tank 50 mixing analysis that examined the ability of standard slurry pumps to suspend sludge particles. Based on a review of the pilot-scale SCIX mixing tests and Tank 50 pump operating experience, three standard slurry pumps should be able to suspend sludge and MST to effectively sorb strontium and actinides onto the MST. Using the SCIX data requires an assumption about the impact of cooling coils on slurry pump mixing. The basis for this assumption is described in this report. Using the Tank 50 operating experience shows three standard slurry pumps should be able to suspend solids if the shear strength of the settled solids is less than 160 Pa. Because Tank 21 does not contain cooling coils, the shear strength could be larger.

  19. Lower limb joint angles and ground reaction forces in forefoot strike and rearfoot strike runners during overground downhill and uphill running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalski, Erik; Li, Jing Xian

    2016-11-01

    This study investigated the normal and parallel ground reaction forces during downhill and uphill running in habitual forefoot strike and habitual rearfoot strike (RFS) runners. Fifteen habitual forefoot strike and 15 habitual RFS recreational male runners ran at 3 m/s ± 5% during level, uphill and downhill overground running on a ramp mounted at 6° and 9°. Results showed that forefoot strike runners had no visible impact peak in all running conditions, while the impact peaks only decreased during the uphill conditions in RFS runners. Active peaks decreased during the downhill conditions in forefoot strike runners while active loading rates increased during downhill conditions in RFS runners. Compared to the level condition, parallel braking peaks were larger during downhill conditions and parallel propulsive peaks were larger during uphill conditions. Combined with previous biomechanics studies, our findings suggest that forefoot strike running may be an effective strategy to reduce impacts, especially during downhill running. These findings may have further implications towards injury management and prevention.

  20. The 2012 Strike-slip Earthquake Sequence in Black Sea and its Link to the Caucasus Collision Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, T. L.; Hsu, C. H.; Legendre, C. P.; Jian, P. R.; Huang, B. S.; Karakhanian, A.; Chen, C. W.

    2016-12-01

    The Black Sea formed as a back-arc basin in Late Cretaceous to Paleogene with lots of extensional features. However, the Black Sea is now tectonically stable and absent of notable earthquakes except for the coastal region. In this study we invert regional waveforms of a new seismic array to constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of the 2012/12/23 earthquake sequence occurred in northeastern Black Sea basin that can provide unique estimates on the stress field in the region. The results show that the focal mechanisms for the main shock and 5 larger aftershocks are all strike-slip faulting and resembling with each other. The main rupture fall along the vertical dipping, NW-SE trending sinistral fault indicated by the lineation of most aftershocks. The fault strike and aftershock distribution are both consistent with the Shatsky Ridge, which is continental in nature but large normal faults was created by previous subsidence. The occurrence of 2012 earthquakes can be re-activated, as strike-slip, on one of the pre-existing normal fault cutting at depth nearly 20-30 km in the extended crust. Some of the aftershocks, including a larger one occurred 5 days later, are distributed toward NE direction 20 km away from main fault zone. Those events might be triggered by the main shock along a conjugate fault, which is surprisingly at the extension of proposed transform fault perpendicular to the rift axis of eastern Black Sea Basin. The focal mechanisms also indicate that the maximum compression in northeast Black Sea is at E-W direction, completely different from the N-S compression in the Caucasus and East Turkey controlled by Arabia-Eurasia collision. The origin of E-W maximum compression is probably the same as the secondary stress inferred from earthquakes in Racha region of the Greater Caucasus.

  1. Probability theory a comprehensive course

    CERN Document Server

    Klenke, Achim

    2014-01-01

    This second edition of the popular textbook contains a comprehensive course in modern probability theory. Overall, probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us in understanding magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments at financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.   To address these concepts, the title covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:   • limit theorems for sums of random variables • martingales • percolation • Markov chains and electrical networks • construction of stochastic processes • Poisson point process and infinite divisibility • large deviation principles and statistical physics • Brownian motion • stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations. The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the c...

  2. Excluding joint probabilities from quantum theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Danageozian, Arshag

    2018-03-01

    Quantum theory does not provide a unique definition for the joint probability of two noncommuting observables, which is the next important question after the Born's probability for a single observable. Instead, various definitions were suggested, e.g., via quasiprobabilities or via hidden-variable theories. After reviewing open issues of the joint probability, we relate it to quantum imprecise probabilities, which are noncontextual and are consistent with all constraints expected from a quantum probability. We study two noncommuting observables in a two-dimensional Hilbert space and show that there is no precise joint probability that applies for any quantum state and is consistent with imprecise probabilities. This contrasts with theorems by Bell and Kochen-Specker that exclude joint probabilities for more than two noncommuting observables, in Hilbert space with dimension larger than two. If measurement contexts are included into the definition, joint probabilities are not excluded anymore, but they are still constrained by imprecise probabilities.

  3. Parkinsonian abnormality of foot strike: a phenomenon of ageing and/or one responsive to levodopa therapy?

    OpenAIRE

    Hughes, J R; Bowes, S G; Leeman, A L; O'Neill, C J; Deshmukh, A A; Nicholson, P W; Dobbs, S M; Dobbs, R J

    1990-01-01

    1. Normally during walking, the heel strikes the ground before the forefoot. Abnormalities of foot strike in idiopathic Parkinson's disease may be amenable to therapy: objective measurements may reveal response which is not clinically apparent. Occult changes in foot strike leading to instability may parallel the normal, age-related loss of striatal dopamine. 2. The nature of foot strike was studied using pedobarography in 160 healthy volunteers, aged 15 to 91 years. Although 16% of strikes w...

  4. Pre/post-strike atmospheric assessment system (PAAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peglow, S. G.; Molitoris, J. D.

    1997-01-01

    The Pre/Post-Strike Atmospheric Assessment System was proposed to show the importance of local meteorological conditions in the vicinity of a site suspected of storing or producing toxic agents and demonstrate a technology to measure these conditions, specifically wind fields. The ability to predict the collateral effects resulting from an attack on a facility containing hazardous materials is crucial to conducting effective military operations. Our study approach utilized a combination of field measurements with dispersion modeling to better understand which variables in terrain and weather were most important to collateral damage predictions. To develop the PAAS wind-sensing technology, we utilized a combination of emergent and available technology from micro-Doppler and highly coherent laser systems. The method used for wind sensing is to probe the atmosphere with a highly coherent laser beam. As the beam probes, light is back-scattered from particles entrained in the air to the lidar transceiver and detected by the instrument. Any motion of the aerosols with a component along the beam axis leads to a Doppler shift of the received light. Scanning in a conical fashion about the zenith results in a more accurate and two-dimensional measurement of the wind velocity. The major milestones in the benchtop system development were to verify the design by demonstrating the technique in the laboratory, then scale the design down to a size consistent with a demonstrator unit which could be built to take data in the field. The micro-Doppler heterodyne system we developed determines absolute motion by optically mixing a reference beam with the return signal and has shown motion sensitivity to better than 1 cm/s. This report describes the rationale, technical approach and laboratory testing undertaken to demonstrate the feasibility and utility of a system to provide local meteorological data and predict atmospheric particulate motion. The work described herein was funded by

  5. Probability theory and mathematical statistics for engineers

    CERN Document Server

    Pugachev, V S

    1984-01-01

    Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics for Engineers focuses on the concepts of probability theory and mathematical statistics for finite-dimensional random variables.The publication first underscores the probabilities of events, random variables, and numerical characteristics of random variables. Discussions focus on canonical expansions of random vectors, second-order moments of random vectors, generalization of the density concept, entropy of a distribution, direct evaluation of probabilities, and conditional probabilities. The text then examines projections of random vector

  6. Gamma-Ray interaction probabilities for some liquid scintillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Torano Martinez, E.; Grau Malonda, A.

    1989-01-01

    Interaction probabilities for 17 gamma-Ray energies between 1 and 1.000 KeV have been computed and tabulated. The tables may be applied to the case of cylindrical vials with radius 1,25 cm and volumes 5, 10 and 15 ml. Toluene, Toluene/Alcohol, Dioxane-Naftalene, PCS, INSTAGEL and HISAFE II scintillators are considered. Graphical results for 10 ml are also given. (Author)

  7. Are physicians' strikes ever morally justifiable? A call for a return to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Though physicians strike provides an opportunity to generate more knowledge about the process in which legitimacy of an organization can be restored, it meets with a great deal of resistance not only by the public but from within the medical profession. This paper critically examines the legitimacy of strike by medical ...

  8. The balancing act between the constitutional right to strike and the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    While the South African Constitution enshrines both children's right to a basic education and teachers' right to strike, conflict between these two often occurs when the way in which teachers' unions conduct strike actions detracts from learners' education. This article identifies the parties affected by industrial action in the ...

  9. Expert Anticipatory Skill in Striking Sports: A Review and a Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Sean; Abernethy, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    Expert performers in striking sports can hit objects moving at high speed with incredible precision. Exceptionally well developed anticipation skills are necessary to cope with the severe constraints on interception. In this paper, we provide a review of the empirical evidence regarding expert interception in striking sports and propose a…

  10. Factors affecting defensive strike behavior in Brown Treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) provoked by humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, McKayka M.; Lardner, Bjorn; Mazurek, M.J.; Reed, Robert N.

    2015-01-01

    Striking is a typical antipredator defense exhibited by many species of snakes. While trapping Brown Treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) on Guam, we observed that snakes most frequently struck at an approaching person at a site where snakes had been trapped, marked, and handled in the past. Using a combination of between-sites and within-site comparisons, we assessed if the propensity to strike was correlated with capture histories (both recent and long-term), snake size, body condition (a proxy to nutritional stress), sex, or tail condition (broken or intact), while controlling for confounding variables. We confirmed that propensity to strike was higher at the site where we had been conducting capture-mark-recapture for several years. However, we were unable to demonstrate a correlation between striking tendencies and individual recent or long-term capture histories. The only morphological covariate that had an effect on strike propensity was sex, with females striking more often than males. After removing the site effect from our model, we found that snakes missing parts of their tails were more likely to strike than snakes with intact tails. We have yet to identify the factor(s) that cause the pronounced difference across sites in snake propensity to strike, and data from additional sites might help elucidate any geographical patterns.

  11. Effects of Foot Strike and Step Frequency on Achilles Tendon Stress During Running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyght, Michael; Nockerts, Matthew; Kernozek, Thomas W; Ragan, Robert

    2016-08-01

    Achilles tendon (AT) injuries are common in runners. The AT withstands high magnitudes of stress during running which may contribute to injury. Our purpose was to examine the effects of foot strike pattern and step frequency on AT stress and strain during running utilizing muscle forces based on a musculoskeletal model and subject-specific ultrasound-derived AT cross-sectional area. Nineteen female runners performed running trials under 6 conditions, including rearfoot strike and forefoot strike patterns at their preferred cadence, +5%, and -5% preferred cadence. Rearfoot strike patterns had less peak AT stress (P forefoot strike pattern. A reduction in peak AT stress and strain were exhibited with a +5% preferred step frequency relative to the preferred condition using a rearfoot (P forefoot (P=.005) strike pattern. Strain rate was not different (P > .05) between step frequencies within each foot strike condition. Our results suggest that a rearfoot pattern may reduce AT stress, strain, and strain rate. Increases in step frequency of 5% above preferred frequency, regardless of foot strike pattern, may also lower peak AT stress and strain.

  12. Strike type variation among Tarahumara Indians in minimal sandals versus conventional running shoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel E. Lieberman

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: These data reinforce earlier studies that there is variation among foot strike patterns among minimally shod runners, but also support the hypothesis that foot stiffness and important aspects of running form, including foot strike, differ between runners who grow up using minimal versus modern, conventional footwear.

  13. Variation in Foot Strike Patterns among Habitually Barefoot and Shod Runners in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieberman, Daniel E; Castillo, Eric R; Otarola-Castillo, Erik; Sang, Meshack K; Sigei, Timothy K; Ojiambo, Robert; Okutoyi, Paul; Pitsiladis, Yannis

    2015-01-01

    Runners are often categorized as forefoot, midfoot or rearfoot strikers, but how much and why do individuals vary in foot strike patterns when running on level terrain? This study used general linear mixed-effects models to explore both intra- and inter-individual variations in foot strike pattern among 48 Kalenjin-speaking participants from Kenya who varied in age, sex, body mass, height, running history, and habitual use of footwear. High speed video was used to measure lower extremity kinematics at ground contact in the sagittal plane while participants ran down 13 meter-long tracks with three variables independently controlled: speed, track stiffness, and step frequency. 72% of the habitually barefoot and 32% of the habitually shod participants used multiple strike types, with significantly higher levels of foot strike variation among individuals who ran less frequently and who used lower step frequencies. There was no effect of sex, age, height or weight on foot strike angle, but individuals were more likely to midfoot or forefoot strike when they ran on a stiff surface, had a high preferred stride frequency, were habitually barefoot, and had more experience running. It is hypothesized that strike type variation during running, including a more frequent use of forefoot and midfoot strikes, used to be greater before the introduction of cushioned shoes and paved surfaces.

  14. Variation in Foot Strike Patterns among Habitually Barefoot and Shod Runners in Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel E Lieberman

    Full Text Available Runners are often categorized as forefoot, midfoot or rearfoot strikers, but how much and why do individuals vary in foot strike patterns when running on level terrain? This study used general linear mixed-effects models to explore both intra- and inter-individual variations in foot strike pattern among 48 Kalenjin-speaking participants from Kenya who varied in age, sex, body mass, height, running history, and habitual use of footwear. High speed video was used to measure lower extremity kinematics at ground contact in the sagittal plane while participants ran down 13 meter-long tracks with three variables independently controlled: speed, track stiffness, and step frequency. 72% of the habitually barefoot and 32% of the habitually shod participants used multiple strike types, with significantly higher levels of foot strike variation among individuals who ran less frequently and who used lower step frequencies. There was no effect of sex, age, height or weight on foot strike angle, but individuals were more likely to midfoot or forefoot strike when they ran on a stiff surface, had a high preferred stride frequency, were habitually barefoot, and had more experience running. It is hypothesized that strike type variation during running, including a more frequent use of forefoot and midfoot strikes, used to be greater before the introduction of cushioned shoes and paved surfaces.

  15. Footwear Matters: Influence of Footwear and Foot Strike on Load Rates during Running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Hannah M; Jamison, Steve T; Davis, Irene S

    2016-12-01

    Running with a forefoot strike (FFS) pattern has been suggested to reduce the risk of overuse running injuries, due to a reduced vertical load rate compared with rearfoot strike (RFS) running. However, resultant load rate has been reported to be similar between foot strikes when running in traditional shoes, leading to questions regarding the value of running with a FFS. The influence of minimal footwear on the resultant load rate has not been considered. This study aimed to compare component and resultant instantaneous loading rate (ILR) between runners with different foot strike patterns in their habitual footwear conditions. Twenty-nine injury-free participants (22 men, seven women) ran at 3.13 m·s along a 30-m runway, with their habitual foot strike and footwear condition. Ground reaction force data were collected. Peak ILR values were compared between three conditions; those who habitually run with an RFS in standard shoes, with an FFS in standard shoes, and with an FFS in minimal shoes. Peak resultant, vertical, lateral, and medial ILR were lower (P strike. When running with an FFS, peak posterior ILR were lower (P strike. Therefore, it appears that footwear alters the load rates during running, even with similar foot strike patterns.

  16. The initiation and linkage of surface fractures above a buried strike ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a buried strike-slip fault: An experimental approach. N Ghosh and A ... conditions viz., (i) heterogeneous simple shear of the cover rocks above a buried strike slip fault. (wrench .... (iii) study of fracture types in the damage zones from Gozo .... was dominant, the results may vary from a true ... For example, as shown in figure 5 ...

  17. Law and ethics of strikes in the Nigerian health system | Mcfubara ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Despite that health services are essential, health sector strikes have continued. The purpose here was to examine the legal and ethical justification of strikes in the Nigerian health sector. Documentary analysis and literature reviews were carried out. It was found that the Trade Disputes Act and the National Health Act do not ...

  18. XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Juan; Rivero, Víctor; Bravo, Gerónimo

    2015-01-01

    This volume features lecture notes and a collection of contributed articles from the XI Symposium on Probability and Stochastic Processes, held at CIMAT Mexico in September 2013. Since the symposium was part of the activities organized in Mexico to celebrate the International Year of Statistics, the program included topics from the interface between statistics and stochastic processes. The book starts with notes from the mini-course given by Louigi Addario-Berry with an accessible description of some features of the multiplicative coalescent and its connection with random graphs and minimum spanning trees. It includes a number of exercises and a section on unanswered questions. Further contributions provide the reader with a broad perspective on the state-of-the art of active areas of research. Contributions by: Louigi Addario-Berry Octavio Arizmendi Fabrice Baudoin Jochen Blath Loïc Chaumont J. Armando Domínguez-Molina Bjarki Eldon Shui Feng Tulio Gaxiola Adrián González Casanova Evgueni Gordienko Daniel...

  19. K-forbidden transition probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saitoh, T.R.; Sletten, G.; Bark, R.A.; Hagemann, G.B.; Herskind, B.; Saitoh-Hashimoto, N.; Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki

    2000-01-01

    Reduced hindrance factors of K-forbidden transitions are compiled for nuclei with A∝180 where γ-vibrational states are observed. Correlations between these reduced hindrance factors and Coriolis forces, statistical level mixing and γ-softness have been studied. It is demonstrated that the K-forbidden transition probabilities are related to γ-softness. The decay of the high-K bandheads has been studied by means of the two-state mixing, which would be induced by the γ-softness, with the use of a number of K-forbidden transitions compiled in the present work, where high-K bandheads are depopulated by both E2 and ΔI=1 transitions. The validity of the two-state mixing scheme has been examined by using the proposed identity of the B(M1)/B(E2) ratios of transitions depopulating high-K bandheads and levels of low-K bands. A break down of the identity might indicate that other levels would mediate transitions between high- and low-K states. (orig.)

  20. Direct probability mapping of contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rautman, C.A.

    1993-01-01

    Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. Geostatistical simulation provides powerful tools for investigating contaminant levels, and in particular, for identifying and using the spatial interrelationships among a set of isolated sample values. This additional information can be used to assess the likelihood of encountering contamination at unsampled locations and to evaluate the risk associated with decisions to remediate or not to remediate specific regions within a site. Past operation of the DOE Feed Materials Production Center has contaminated a site near Fernald, Ohio, with natural uranium. Soil geochemical data have been collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project. These data have been used to construct a number of stochastic images of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit. Each such image accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely, statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination. Evaluation of the geostatistical simulations can yield maps representing the expected magnitude of the contamination for various regions and other information that may be important in determining a suitable remediation process or in sizing equipment to accomplish the restoration

  1. Developing personal values: trainees' attitudes toward strikes by health care providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Su-Ting T; Srinivasan, Malathi; Der-Martirosian, Claudia; Kravitz, Richard L; Wilkes, Michael S

    2011-05-01

    Worldwide, health care providers use strikes and job actions to influence policy. For health care providers, especially physicians, strikes create an ethical tension between an obligation to care for current patients (e.g., to provide care and avoid abandonment) and an obligation to better care for future patients by seeking system improvements (e.g., improvements in safety, to access, and in the composition and strength of the health care workforce). This tension is further intensified when the potential benefit of a strike involves professional self-interest and the potential risk involves patient harm or death. By definition, trainees are still forming their professional identities and values, including their opinions on fair wages, health policy, employee benefits, professionalism, and strikes. In this article, the authors explore these ethical tensions, beginning with a discussion of reactions to a potential 2005 nursing strike at the University of California, Davis, Medical Center. The authors then propose a conceptual model describing factors that may influence health care providers' decisions to strike (including personal ethics, personal agency, and strike-related context). In particular, the authors explore the relationship between training level and attitudes toward taking a job action, such as going on strike. Because trainees' attitudes toward strikes continue to evolve during training, the authors maintain that open discussion around the ethics of health care professionals' strikes and other methods of conflict resolution should be included in medical education to enhance professionalism and systems-based practice training. The authors include sample case vignettes to help initiate these important discussions. Copyright © by the Association of American medical Colleges.

  2. Psychophysics of the probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2011-03-01

    A probability weighting function w(p) for an objective probability p in decision under risk plays a pivotal role in Kahneman-Tversky prospect theory. Although recent studies in econophysics and neuroeconomics widely utilized probability weighting functions, psychophysical foundations of the probability weighting functions have been unknown. Notably, a behavioral economist Prelec (1998) [4] axiomatically derived the probability weighting function w(p)=exp(-() (01e)=1e,w(1)=1), which has extensively been studied in behavioral neuroeconomics. The present study utilizes psychophysical theory to derive Prelec's probability weighting function from psychophysical laws of perceived waiting time in probabilistic choices. Also, the relations between the parameters in the probability weighting function and the probability discounting function in behavioral psychology are derived. Future directions in the application of the psychophysical theory of the probability weighting function in econophysics and neuroeconomics are discussed.

  3. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D., E-mail: dclausen@tapir.caltech.edu [TAPIR, Walter Burke Institute for Theoretical Physics, California Institute of Technology, Mailcode 350-17, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  4. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH (M ZAMS ). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH (M ZAMS ) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH (M ZAMS ) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH (M ZAMS ) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment

  5. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  6. Urea, a true uremic toxin: the empire strikes back.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Wei Ling; Vaziri, Nosratola D

    2017-01-01

    Blood levels of urea rise with progressive decline in kidney function. Older studies examining acute urea infusion suggested that urea was well-tolerated at levels 8-10× above normal values. More recent in vitro and in vivo work argue the opposite and demonstrate both direct and indirect toxicities of urea, which probably promote the premature aging phenotype that is pervasive in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Elevated urea at concentrations typically encountered in uremic patients induces disintegration of the gut epithelial barrier, leading to translocation of bacterial toxins into the bloodstream and systemic inflammation. Urea induces apoptosis of vascular smooth muscle cells as well as endothelial dysfunction, thus directly promoting cardiovascular disease. Further, urea stimulates oxidative stress and dysfunction in adipocytes, leading to insulin resistance. Finally, there are widespread indirect effects of elevated urea as a result of the carbamylation reaction, where isocyanic acid (a product of urea catabolism) alters the structure and function of proteins in the body. Carbamylation has been linked with renal fibrosis, atherosclerosis and anaemia. In summary, urea is a re-emerging Dark Force in CKD pathophysiology. Trials examining low protein diet to minimize accumulation of urea and other toxins suggest a clinical benefit in terms of slowing progression of CKD. © 2016 The Author(s). published by Portland Press Limited on behalf of the Biochemical Society.

  7. Are physicians strikes ever morally justifiable? A call for a return to tradition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Munyaradzi Mawere

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Though physicians strike provides an opportunity to generate more knowledge about the process in which legitimacy of an organization can be restored, it meets with a great deal of resistance not only by the public but from within the medical profession. This paper critically examines the legitimacy of strike by medical doctors heretofore referred to as physicians. Though critically reflecting on strikes of physicians in general, the paper makes more emphasis on Africa where physician strikes are rampant. More importantly, the paper argues that strike implies a failure for everyone in the organization (including the strikers themselves, not only the responsible government or authority. This is because when a strike occurs, an organization/fraternity is subjected to questions, scrutiny and slander. It becomes difficult to decouple what is said, decided and done. Traditionally, all medical fraternities the world-over are committed to acting comfortably to external demands- guaranteeing the patients lives and public health. By paying attention to external reactions, the medical fraternity adapts and learns what ought and should be done so that it is never again caught in the same messy. At the same time, the fraternity prepares itself for the future strikes. When the fraternity and those outside consider it is doing up to the external expectations, its lost legitimacy is restored. When legitimacy is restored, external pressure like once disturbed water returns to normal

  8. Independent effects of step length and foot strike pattern on tibiofemoral joint forces during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowersock, Collin D; Willy, Richard W; DeVita, Paul; Willson, John D

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of step length and foot strike pattern along with their interaction on tibiofemoral joint (TFJ) and medial compartment TFJ kinetics during running. Nineteen participants ran with a rear foot strike pattern at their preferred speed using a short (-10%), preferred, and long (+10%) step length. These step length conditions were then repeated using a forefoot strike pattern. Regardless of foot strike pattern, a 10% shorter step length resulted in decreased peak contact force, force impulse per step, force impulse per kilometre, and average loading rate at the TFJ and medial compartment, while a 10% increased step length had the opposite effects (all P forefoot strike pattern significantly lowered TFJ and medial compartment TFJ average loading rates compared with a rear foot strike pattern (both forefoot strike pattern produced the greatest reduction in peak medial compartment contact force (P < 0.05). Knowledge of these running modification effects may be relevant to the management or prevention of TFJ injury or pathology among runners.

  9. Acute changes in foot strike pattern and cadence affect running parameters associated with tibial stress fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Jennifer R; Silder, Amy; Montgomery, Kate L; Fredericson, Michael; Delp, Scott L

    2018-05-18

    Tibial stress fractures are a common and debilitating injury that occur in distance runners. Runners may be able to decrease tibial stress fracture risk by adopting a running pattern that reduces biomechanical parameters associated with a history of tibial stress fracture. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that converting to a forefoot striking pattern or increasing cadence without focusing on changing foot strike type would reduce injury risk parameters in recreational runners. Running kinematics, ground reaction forces and tibial accelerations were recorded from seventeen healthy, habitual rearfoot striking runners while running in their natural running pattern and after two acute retraining conditions: (1) converting to forefoot striking without focusing on cadence and (2) increasing cadence without focusing on foot strike. We found that converting to forefoot striking decreased two risk factors for tibial stress fracture: average and peak loading rates. Increasing cadence decreased one risk factor: peak hip adduction angle. Our results demonstrate that acute adaptation to forefoot striking reduces different injury risk parameters than acute adaptation to increased cadence and suggest that both modifications may reduce the risk of tibial stress fractures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Collective Labor Disputes and Strikes in Russia: The Impact of Judicial Precedents and Enforcement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Gerasimova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The right to strike is recognized in the Constitution and the Labor Code of the Russian Federation as a means to resolve collective labor disputes. However, in Russia labor protests come up for discussion much more frequently than strikes. In recent years the number of labor protests in Russia, including various forms of work stoppage, has increased significantly compared to previous years, but the number of legally constituted collective labor disputes and strikes has remained very low. The legislation on resolution of collective labor disputes and mounting strikes is quite restrictive in Russia, and its enforcement also encourages employees to seek alternative ways to settle collective labor conflicts. There is little empirical research on the judicial implementation of these norms and its influence on the enforcement of legislation. Therefore, this paper analyses the reasoning of courts in cases on the legality of strikes, their interpretations of the law, and the impact these decisions have on the enforcement of the legislation on resolution of collective labor disputes and strikes. Our conclusion is that the courts act as another restrictive influence on the resolution of collective labor disputes and the exercise of the right to strike in Russia.

  11. Foundations of the theory of probability

    CERN Document Server

    Kolmogorov, AN

    2018-01-01

    This famous little book remains a foundational text for the understanding of probability theory, important both to students beginning a serious study of probability and to historians of modern mathematics. 1956 second edition.

  12. The Probability Distribution for a Biased Spinner

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2012-01-01

    This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

  13. Conditional Probability Modulates Visual Search Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryan eCort

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of probability on visual search. Previous work has shown that people can utilize spatial and sequential probability information to improve target detection. We hypothesized that performance improvements from probability information would extend to the efficiency of visual search. Our task was a simple visual search in which the target was always present among a field of distractors, and could take one of two colors. The absolute probability of the target being either color was 0.5; however, the conditional probability – the likelihood of a particular color given a particular combination of two cues – varied from 0.1 to 0.9. We found that participants searched more efficiently for high conditional probability targets and less efficiently for low conditional probability targets, but only when they were explicitly informed of the probability relationship between cues and target color.

  14. Analytic Neutrino Oscillation Probabilities in Matter: Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parke, Stephen J. [Fermilab; Denton, Peter B. [Copenhagen U.; Minakata, Hisakazu [Madrid, IFT

    2018-01-02

    We summarize our recent paper on neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter, explaining the importance, relevance and need for simple, highly accurate approximations to the neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter.

  15. Variation in foot strike patterns during running among habitually barefoot populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatala, Kevin G; Dingwall, Heather L; Wunderlich, Roshna E; Richmond, Brian G

    2013-01-01

    Endurance running may have a long evolutionary history in the hominin clade but it was not until very recently that humans ran wearing shoes. Research on modern habitually unshod runners has suggested that they utilize a different biomechanical strategy than runners who wear shoes, namely that barefoot runners typically use a forefoot strike in order to avoid generating the high impact forces that would be experienced if they were to strike the ground with their heels first. This finding suggests that our habitually unshod ancestors may have run in a similar way. However, this research was conducted on a single population and we know little about variation in running form among habitually barefoot people, including the effects of running speed, which has been shown to affect strike patterns in shod runners. Here, we present the results of our investigation into the selection of running foot strike patterns among another modern habitually unshod group, the Daasanach of northern Kenya. Data were collected from 38 consenting adults as they ran along a trackway with a plantar pressure pad placed midway along its length. Subjects ran at self-selected endurance running and sprinting speeds. Our data support the hypothesis that a forefoot strike reduces the magnitude of impact loading, but the majority of subjects instead used a rearfoot strike at endurance running speeds. Their percentages of midfoot and forefoot strikes increased significantly with speed. These results indicate that not all habitually barefoot people prefer running with a forefoot strike, and suggest that other factors such as running speed, training level, substrate mechanical properties, running distance, and running frequency, influence the selection of foot strike patterns.

  16. Variation in foot strike patterns during running among habitually barefoot populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin G Hatala

    Full Text Available Endurance running may have a long evolutionary history in the hominin clade but it was not until very recently that humans ran wearing shoes. Research on modern habitually unshod runners has suggested that they utilize a different biomechanical strategy than runners who wear shoes, namely that barefoot runners typically use a forefoot strike in order to avoid generating the high impact forces that would be experienced if they were to strike the ground with their heels first. This finding suggests that our habitually unshod ancestors may have run in a similar way. However, this research was conducted on a single population and we know little about variation in running form among habitually barefoot people, including the effects of running speed, which has been shown to affect strike patterns in shod runners. Here, we present the results of our investigation into the selection of running foot strike patterns among another modern habitually unshod group, the Daasanach of northern Kenya. Data were collected from 38 consenting adults as they ran along a trackway with a plantar pressure pad placed midway along its length. Subjects ran at self-selected endurance running and sprinting speeds. Our data support the hypothesis that a forefoot strike reduces the magnitude of impact loading, but the majority of subjects instead used a rearfoot strike at endurance running speeds. Their percentages of midfoot and forefoot strikes increased significantly with speed. These results indicate that not all habitually barefoot people prefer running with a forefoot strike, and suggest that other factors such as running speed, training level, substrate mechanical properties, running distance, and running frequency, influence the selection of foot strike patterns.

  17. Manipulation of Foot Strike and Footwear Increases Achilles Tendon Loading During Running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Hannah; Patel, Mubarak

    2017-08-01

    The Achilles tendon is the most common site of tendon overuse injury in humans. Running with a forefoot strike pattern and in minimal shoes is a topic of recent interest, yet evidence is currently limited regarding the combined influence of foot strike and footwear on Achilles tendon loading. To investigate the influence of both foot strike and footwear on Achilles tendon loading in habitual rearfoot strike runners. Controlled laboratory study. Synchronized kinematic and force data were collected from 22 habitual rearfoot strikers (11 male), who habitually ran in nonminimal running shoes, during overground running at 3.6 m·s -1 . Participants ran in 3 different footwear conditions (standard running shoe, minimal running shoe, and barefoot) with both a rearfoot strike (RFS) and an imposed forefoot strike (FFS) in each footwear condition. Achilles tendon loading was estimated by use of inverse dynamics, where the Achilles tendon moment arm was determined with a regression equation. A 2-way, repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare conditions. Achilles tendon impulse was greater when subjects ran with an FFS rather than an RFS in minimal shoes. Achilles tendon loading rates were higher when subjects ran either in minimal shoes or barefoot than in standard shoes, regardless of foot strike. In runners who habitually rearfoot strike in standard running shoes, running in minimal shoes or barefoot increased the rate of tendon loading, and running with a forefoot strike in minimal shoes increased the magnitude of tendon loading. Transitioning to these running conditions may increase the risk of tendinopathy.

  18. Void probability scaling in hadron nucleus interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Deb, Argha; Bhattacharyya, Swarnapratim; Ghosh, Jayita; Bandyopadhyay, Prabhat; Das, Rupa; Mukherjee, Sima

    2002-01-01

    Heygi while investigating with the rapidity gap probability (that measures the chance of finding no particle in the pseudo-rapidity interval Δη) found that a scaling behavior in the rapidity gap probability has a close correspondence with the scaling of a void probability in galaxy correlation study. The main aim in this paper is to study the scaling behavior of the rapidity gap probability

  19. Joint Probability-Based Neuronal Spike Train Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Chen

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Neuronal spike trains are used by the nervous system to encode and transmit information. Euclidean distance-based methods (EDBMs have been applied to quantify the similarity between temporally-discretized spike trains and model responses. In this study, using the same discretization procedure, we developed and applied a joint probability-based method (JPBM to classify individual spike trains of slowly adapting pulmonary stretch receptors (SARs. The activity of individual SARs was recorded in anaesthetized, paralysed adult male rabbits, which were artificially-ventilated at constant rate and one of three different volumes. Two-thirds of the responses to the 600 stimuli presented at each volume were used to construct three response models (one for each stimulus volume consisting of a series of time bins, each with spike probabilities. The remaining one-third of the responses where used as test responses to be classified into one of the three model responses. This was done by computing the joint probability of observing the same series of events (spikes or no spikes, dictated by the test response in a given model and determining which probability of the three was highest. The JPBM generally produced better classification accuracy than the EDBM, and both performed well above chance. Both methods were similarly affected by variations in discretization parameters, response epoch duration, and two different response alignment strategies. Increasing bin widths increased classification accuracy, which also improved with increased observation time, but primarily during periods of increasing lung inflation. Thus, the JPBM is a simple and effective method performing spike train classification.

  20. Pre-Service Teachers' Conceptions of Probability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odafe, Victor U.

    2011-01-01

    Probability knowledge and skills are needed in science and in making daily decisions that are sometimes made under uncertain conditions. Hence, there is the need to ensure that the pre-service teachers of our children are well prepared to teach probability. Pre-service teachers' conceptions of probability are identified, and ways of helping them…

  1. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  2. Seismic attribute detection of faults and fluid pathways within an active strike-slip shear zone: New insights from high-resolution 3D P-Cable™ seismic data along the Hosgri Fault, offshore California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluesner, Jared W.; Brothers, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Poststack data conditioning and neural-network seismic attribute workflows are used to detect and visualize faulting and fluid migration pathways within a 13.7 km2 13.7 km2 3D P-Cable™ seismic volume located along the Hosgri Fault Zone offshore central California. The high-resolution 3D volume used in this study was collected in 2012 as part of Pacific Gas and Electric’s Central California Seismic Imaging Project. Three-dimensional seismic reflection data were acquired using a triple-plate boomer source (1.75 kJ) and a short-offset, 14-streamer, P-Cable system. The high-resolution seismic data were processed into a prestack time-migrated 3D volume and publically released in 2014. Postprocessing, we employed dip-steering (dip and azimuth) and structural filtering to enhance laterally continuous events and remove random noise and acquisition artifacts. In addition, the structural filtering was used to enhance laterally continuous edges, such as faults. Following data conditioning, neural-network based meta-attribute workflows were used to detect and visualize faults and probable fluid-migration pathways within the 3D seismic volume. The workflow used in this study clearly illustrates the utility of advanced attribute analysis applied to high-resolution 3D P-Cable data. For example, results from the fault attribute workflow reveal a network of splayed and convergent fault strands within an approximately 1.3 km wide shear zone that is characterized by distinctive sections of transpressional and transtensional dominance. Neural-network chimney attribute calculations indicate that fluids are concentrated along discrete faults in the transtensional zones, but appear to be more broadly distributed amongst fault bounded anticlines and structurally controlled traps in the transpressional zones. These results provide high-resolution, 3D constraints on the relationships between strike-slip fault mechanics, substrate deformation, and fluid migration along an active

  3. Dependent Human Error Probability Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; Vukovic, I.

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the dependence between dynamic operator actions modeled in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) PRA and estimate the associated impact on Core damage frequency (CDF). This assessment was done improve HEP dependencies implementation inside existing PRA. All of the dynamic operator actions modeled in the NPP PRA are included in this assessment. Determining the level of HEP dependence and the associated influence on CDF are the major steps of this assessment. A decision on how to apply the results, i.e., should permanent HEP model changes be made, is based on the resulting relative CDF increase. Some CDF increase was selected as a threshold based on the NPP base CDF value and acceptance guidelines from the Regulatory Guide 1.174. HEP dependence resulting in a CDF increase of > 5E-07 would be considered potential candidates for specific incorporation into the baseline model. The approach used to judge the level of dependence between operator actions is based on dependency level categories and conditional probabilities developed in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis with Emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications NUREG/CR-1278. To simplify the process, NUREG/CR-1278 identifies five levels of dependence: ZD (zero dependence), LD (low dependence), MD (moderate dependence), HD (high dependence), and CD (complete dependence). NUREG/CR-1278 also identifies several qualitative factors that could be involved in determining the level of dependence. Based on the NUREG/CR-1278 information, Time, Function, and Spatial attributes were judged to be the most important considerations when determining the level of dependence between operator actions within an accident sequence. These attributes were used to develop qualitative criteria (rules) that were used to judge the level of dependence (CD, HD, MD, LD, ZD) between the operator actions. After the level of dependence between the various HEPs is judged, quantitative values associated with the

  4. Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving

  5. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    The long-awaited revision of Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes expands on the central components that made the first edition a classic. The title is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability t

  6. Probability of Failure in Random Vibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1988-01-01

    Close approximations to the first-passage probability of failure in random vibration can be obtained by integral equation methods. A simple relation exists between the first-passage probability density function and the distribution function for the time interval spent below a barrier before out......-crossing. An integral equation for the probability density function of the time interval is formulated, and adequate approximations for the kernel are suggested. The kernel approximation results in approximate solutions for the probability density function of the time interval and thus for the first-passage probability...

  7. An Objective Theory of Probability (Routledge Revivals)

    CERN Document Server

    Gillies, Donald

    2012-01-01

    This reissue of D. A. Gillies highly influential work, first published in 1973, is a philosophical theory of probability which seeks to develop von Mises' views on the subject. In agreement with von Mises, the author regards probability theory as a mathematical science like mechanics or electrodynamics, and probability as an objective, measurable concept like force, mass or charge. On the other hand, Dr Gillies rejects von Mises' definition of probability in terms of limiting frequency and claims that probability should be taken as a primitive or undefined term in accordance with modern axioma

  8. Paraconsistent Probabilities: Consistency, Contradictions and Bayes’ Theorem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana Bueno-Soler

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper represents the first steps towards constructing a paraconsistent theory of probability based on the Logics of Formal Inconsistency (LFIs. We show that LFIs encode very naturally an extension of the notion of probability able to express sophisticated probabilistic reasoning under contradictions employing appropriate notions of conditional probability and paraconsistent updating, via a version of Bayes’ theorem for conditionalization. We argue that the dissimilarity between the notions of inconsistency and contradiction, one of the pillars of LFIs, plays a central role in our extended notion of probability. Some critical historical and conceptual points about probability theory are also reviewed.

  9. Clinically significant change in stroke volume in pulmonary hypertension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wolferen, S.A.; van de Veerdonk, M.C.; Mauritz, G.J.; Jacobs, W.; Marcus, J.T.; Marques, K.M.J.; Bronzwaer, J.G.F.; Heijmans, M.W.; Boonstra, A.; Postmus, P.E.; Westerhof, N.; Noordegraaf, A.V.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Stroke volume is probably the best hemodynamic parameter because it reflects therapeutic changes and contains prognostic information in pulmonary hypertension (PH). Stroke volume directly reflects right ventricular function in response to its load, without the correction of compensatory

  10. Electrically conductive carbon fibre-reinforced composite for aircraft lightning strike protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katunin, Andrzej; Krukiewicz, Katarzyna; Turczyn, Roman; Sul, Przemysław; Bilewicz, Marcin

    2017-05-01

    Aircraft elements, especially elements of exterior fuselage, are subjected to damage caused by lightning strikes. Due to the fact that these elements are manufactured from polymeric composites in modern aircraft, and thus, they cannot conduct electrical charges, the lightning strikes cause burnouts in composite structures. Therefore, the effective lightning strike protection for such structures is highly desired. The solution presented in this paper is based on application of organic conductive fillers in the form of intrinsically conducting polymers and carbon fabric in order to ensure electrical conductivity of whole composite and simultaneously retain superior mechanical properties. The presented studies cover synthesis and manufacturing of the electrically conductive composite as well as its characterization with respect to mechanical and electrical properties. The performed studies indicate that the proposed material can be potentially considered as a constructional material for aircraft industry, which characterizes by good operational properties and low cost of manufacturing with respect to current lightning strike protection materials solutions.

  11. Annotated Bibliography of Bird Hazards to Aircraft: Bird Strike Committee Citations 1967-1997

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Short, Jeffrey

    1998-01-01

    .... This annotated bibliography of bird hazards to aircraft, termed ABBHA, is a compilation of citations with abstracts on a wide range of related topics such as bird strike tolerance engineering, bird...

  12. Counterproliferation Strategy: The Role of Preventive War, Preventive Strikes, and Interdiction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rak, Claire

    2003-01-01

    This thesis analyzes the potential effectiveness of preventive war, preventive strikes, and interdiction as tools for the United States to counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD...

  13. Skin Cancer Can Strike Anyone | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of this page please turn Javascript on. Feature: Skin Cancer Skin Cancer Can Strike Anyone Past Issues / Summer 2013 ... removed. That is the most common form of skin cancer and not as dangerous as melanoma. Photo: ...

  14. Combat Pair: The Evolution of Air Force-Navy Integration in Strike Warfare

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lambeth, Benjamin

    2007-01-01

    This report documents the exceptional cross-service harmony that the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy have steadily developed in their conduct of integrated strike operations since the first Persian Gulf War in 1991...

  15. Three-dimensional impact kinetics with foot-strike manipulations during running

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew D. Nordin

    2017-12-01

    Conclusion: Loading rate–time assessment identified contrasting impact characteristics in each direction and the 3D resultant following foot-strike manipulations, with potential implications for lower extremity structures in running.

  16. Origin and structure of major orogen-scale exhumed strike-slip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Shuyun; Neubauer, Franz

    2016-04-01

    The formation of major exhumed strike-slip faults represents one of the most important dynamic processes affecting the evolution of the Earth's lithosphere and surface. Detailed models of the potential initiation and properties and architecture of orogen-scale exhumed strike-slip faults and how these relate to exhumation are rare. In this study, we deal with key properties controlling the development of major exhumed strike-slip fault systems, which are equivalent to the deep crustal sections of active across fault zones. We also propose two dominant processes for the initiation of orogen-scale exhumed strike-slip faults: (1) pluton-controlled and (2) metamorphic core complex-controlled strike-slip faults. In these tectonic settings, the initiation of faults occurs by rheological weakening along hot-to-cool contacts and guides the overall displacement and ultimate exhumation. These processes result in a specific thermal and structural architecture of such faults. These types of strike-slip dominated fault zones are often subparallel to mountain ranges and expose a wide variety of mylonitic, cataclastic and non-cohesive fault rocks, which were formed at different structural levels of the crust during various stages of faulting. The high variety of distinctive fault rocks is a potential evidence for recognition of these types of strike-slip faults. Exhumation of mylonitic rocks is, therefore, a common feature of such reverse oblique-slip strike-slip faults, implying major transtensive and/or transpressive processes accompanying pure strike-slip motion during exhumation. Some orogen-scale strike-slip faults nucleate and initiate along rheologically weak zones, e.g. at granite intrusions, zones of low-strength minerals, thermally weakened crust due to ascending fluids, and lateral borders of hot metamorphic core complexes. A further mechanism is the juxtaposition of mechanically strong mantle lithosphere to hot asthenosphere in continental transform faults (e.g., San

  17. The Left Labourites and the General Strike of 1926 in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeniya G. Blosfeld

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The author analyses the left labourites’ attitude to the interaction of the Labour Party and trade unions and use of general strike as a means of the social struggle. Besides the article analyses the left labourites’ estimation of 1926 general strike and the causes of the defeat, and the strike of the miners who decided to continue it. The left labourites defended the branch principle of the trade unions’ organization based on the shopstewards’ model which was better adopted for the strike struggle. The left labourites took into account that the general structure of the labour movement would remain the same, but the Labour Party would take over the leadership from trade unions. The left labourites supported the peaceful way of transition to socialism and they considered the general strike to be analogy of social revolution or a means of pressure of the government for nationalization of the main economic branches and the improvement of the workers’ life conditions. Under extreme circumstances, the general strike was considered to be a means to prevent antidemocratic revolution. Evaluating the general strike of 1926, the author marks the absence of unity in the leadership, hesitations and inconsistency of the left labourites themselves. They didn’t give a single proposal about the improvement of the working-class movement organization except of state British Trade Unions Congress. As a result, the criticism of the General Council’s renegade position was bestowed upon the leadership of the Miners Federation who didn’t submit to the General Council order to stop the strike.

  18. Calculation of cranial nerve complication probability for acoustic neuroma radiosurgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meeks, Sanford L.; Buatti, John M.; Foote, Kelly D.; Friedman, William A.; Bova, Francis J.

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: Estimations of complications from stereotactic radiosurgery usually rely simply on dose-volume or dose-diameter isoeffect curves. Due to the sparse clinical data available, these curves have typically not considered the target location in the brain, target histology, or treatment plan conformality as parameters in the calculation. In this study, a predictive model was generated to estimate the probability of cranial neuropathies as a result of acoustic schwannoma radiosurgery. Methods and Materials: The dose-volume histogram reduction scheme was used to calculate the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) from brainstem dose-volume histograms. The model's fitting parameters were optimized to provide the best fit to the observed complication data for acoustic neuroma patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery at the University of Florida. The calculation was then applied to the remainder of the patients in the database. Results: The best fit to our clinical data was obtained using n = 0.04, m = 0.15, and no. alphano. /no. betano. = 2.1 Gy -1 . Although the fitting parameter m is relatively consistent with ranges found in the literature, both the volume parameter, n, and no. alphano. /no. betano. are much smaller than the values quoted in the literature. The fit to our clinical data indicates that brainstem, or possibly a specific portion of the brainstem, is more radiosensitive than the parameters in the literature indicate, and that there is very little volume effect; in other words, irradiation of a small fraction of the brainstem yields NTCPs that are nearly as high as those calculated for entire volume irradiation. These new fitting parameters are specific to acoustic neuroma radiosurgery, and the small volume effect that we observe may be an artifact of the fixed relationship of acoustic tumors to specific regions of the brainstem. Applying the model to our patient database, we calculate an average NTCP of 7.2% for patients who had no

  19. Physicians and strikes: can a walkout over the malpractice crisis be ethically justified?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiester, Autumn

    2004-01-01

    Malpractice insurance rates have created a crisis in American medicine. Rates are rising and reimbursements are not keeping pace. In response, physicians in the states hardest hit by this crisis are feeling compelled to take political action, and the current action of choice seems to be physician strikes. While the malpractice insurance crisis is acknowledged to be severe, does it justify the extreme action of a physician walkout? Should physicians engage in this type of collective action, and what are the costs to patients and the profession when such action is taken? I will offer three related arguments against physician strikes that constitute a prima facie prohibition against such action: first, strikes are intended to cause harm to patients; second, strikes are an affront to the physician-patient relationship; and, third, strikes risk decreasing the public's respect for the medical profession. As with any prima facie obligation, there are justifying conditions that may override the moral prohibition, but I will argue that the current malpractice crisis does not rise to the level of such a justifying condition. While the malpractice crisis demands and justifies a political response on the part of the nation's physicians, strikes and slow-downs are not an ethically justified means to the legitimate end of controlling insurance costs.

  20. Changes in foot and shank coupling due to alterations in foot strike pattern during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Michael B; Buckley, John G

    2008-03-01

    Determining if and how the kinematic relationship between adjacent body segments changes when an individual's gait pattern is experimentally manipulated can yield insight into the robustness of the kinematic coupling across the associated joint(s). The aim of this study was to assess the effects on the kinematic coupling between the forefoot, rearfoot and shank during ground contact of running with alteration in foot strike pattern. Twelve subjects ran over-ground using three different foot strike patterns (heel strike, forefoot strike, toe running). Kinematic data were collected of the forefoot, rearfoot and shank, which were modelled as rigid segments. Coupling at the ankle-complex and midfoot joints was assessed using cross-correlation and vector coding techniques. In general good coupling was found between rearfoot frontal plane motion and transverse plane shank rotation regardless of foot strike pattern. Forefoot motion was also strongly coupled with rearfoot frontal plane motion. Subtle differences were noted in the amount of rearfoot eversion transferred into shank internal rotation in the first 10-15% of stance during heel strike running compared to forefoot and toe running, and this was accompanied by small alterations in forefoot kinematics. These findings indicate that during ground contact in running there is strong coupling between the rearfoot and shank via the action of the joints in the ankle-complex. In addition, there was good coupling of both sagittal and transverse plane forefoot with rearfoot frontal plane motion via the action of the midfoot joints.

  1. A simple field method to identify foot strike pattern during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giandolini, Marlène; Poupard, Thibaut; Gimenez, Philippe; Horvais, Nicolas; Millet, Guillaume Y; Morin, Jean-Benoît; Samozino, Pierre

    2014-05-07

    Identifying foot strike patterns in running is an important issue for sport clinicians, coaches and footwear industrials. Current methods allow the monitoring of either many steps in laboratory conditions or only a few steps in the field. Because measuring running biomechanics during actual practice is critical, our purpose is to validate a method aiming at identifying foot strike patterns during continuous field measurements. Based on heel and metatarsal accelerations, this method requires two uniaxial accelerometers. The time between heel and metatarsal acceleration peaks (THM) was compared to the foot strike angle in the sagittal plane (αfoot) obtained by 2D video analysis for various conditions of speed, slope, footwear, foot strike and state of fatigue. Acceleration and kinematic measurements were performed at 1000Hz and 120Hz, respectively, during 2-min treadmill running bouts. Significant correlations were observed between THM and αfoot for 14 out of 15 conditions. The overall correlation coefficient was r=0.916 (Pstrike except for extreme forefoot strike during which the heel rarely or never strikes the ground, and for different footwears and states of fatigue. We proposed a classification based on THM: FFS<-5.49ms

  2. Is the rearfoot pattern the most frequently foot strike pattern among recreational shod distance runners?

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Almeida, Matheus Oliveira; Saragiotto, Bruno Tirotti; Yamato, Tiê Parma; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

    2015-02-01

    To determine the distribution of the foot strike patterns among recreational shod runners and to compare the personal and training characteristics between runners with different foot strike patterns. Cross-sectional study. Areas of running practice in São Paulo, Brazil. 514 recreational shod runners older than 18 years and free of injury. Foot strike patterns were evaluated with a high-speed camera (250 Hz) and photocells to assess the running speed of participants. Personal and training characteristics were collected through a questionnaire. The inter-rater reliability of the visual foot strike pattern classification method was 96.7% and intra-rater reliability was 98.9%. 95.1% (n = 489) of the participants were rearfoot strikers, 4.1% (n = 21) were midfoot strikers, and four runners (0.8%) were forefoot strikers. There were no significant differences between strike patterns for personal and training characteristics. This is the first study to demonstrate that almost all recreational shod runners were rearfoot strikers. The visual method of evaluation seems to be a reliable and feasible option to classify foot strike pattern. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Heel–toe running: A new look at the influence of foot strike pattern on impact force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John A. Mercer

    2015-06-01

    Conclusion: The unique observation of this study was that impact force was different when participants were instructed to run with either an Obvious-HS or a Subtle-HS at contact. Both these foot strike patterns would have been considered rear foot strike patterns, suggesting that something other than which specific part of the foot strikes the ground initially influenced impact force.

  4. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as

  5. Transition probability spaces in loop quantum gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiao-Kan

    2018-03-01

    We study the (generalized) transition probability spaces, in the sense of Mielnik and Cantoni, for spacetime quantum states in loop quantum gravity. First, we show that loop quantum gravity admits the structures of transition probability spaces. This is exemplified by first checking such structures in covariant quantum mechanics and then identifying the transition probability spaces in spin foam models via a simplified version of general boundary formulation. The transition probability space thus defined gives a simple way to reconstruct the discrete analog of the Hilbert space of the canonical theory and the relevant quantum logical structures. Second, we show that the transition probability space and in particular the spin foam model are 2-categories. Then we discuss how to realize in spin foam models two proposals by Crane about the mathematical structures of quantum gravity, namely, the quantum topos and causal sites. We conclude that transition probability spaces provide us with an alternative framework to understand various foundational questions of loop quantum gravity.

  6. Towards a Categorical Account of Conditional Probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Furber

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a categorical account of conditional probability, covering both the classical and the quantum case. Classical conditional probabilities are expressed as a certain "triangle-fill-in" condition, connecting marginal and joint probabilities, in the Kleisli category of the distribution monad. The conditional probabilities are induced by a map together with a predicate (the condition. The latter is a predicate in the logic of effect modules on this Kleisli category. This same approach can be transferred to the category of C*-algebras (with positive unital maps, whose predicate logic is also expressed in terms of effect modules. Conditional probabilities can again be expressed via a triangle-fill-in property. In the literature, there are several proposals for what quantum conditional probability should be, and also there are extra difficulties not present in the classical case. At this stage, we only describe quantum systems with classical parametrization.

  7. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  8. A probability space for quantum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, L. F.

    2017-06-01

    A probability space contains a set of outcomes, a collection of events formed by subsets of the set of outcomes and probabilities defined for all events. A reformulation in terms of propositions allows to use the maximum entropy method to assign the probabilities taking some constraints into account. The construction of a probability space for quantum models is determined by the choice of propositions, choosing the constraints and making the probability assignment by the maximum entropy method. This approach shows, how typical quantum distributions such as Maxwell-Boltzmann, Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein are partly related with well-known classical distributions. The relation between the conditional probability density, given some averages as constraints and the appropriate ensemble is elucidated.

  9. Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes

    CERN Document Server

    Ibe, Oliver

    2005-01-01

    This book is based on the premise that engineers use probability as a modeling tool, and that probability can be applied to the solution of engineering problems. Engineers and students studying probability and random processes also need to analyze data, and thus need some knowledge of statistics. This book is designed to provide students with a thorough grounding in probability and stochastic processes, demonstrate their applicability to real-world problems, and introduce the basics of statistics. The book''s clear writing style and homework problems make it ideal for the classroom or for self-study.* Good and solid introduction to probability theory and stochastic processes * Logically organized; writing is presented in a clear manner * Choice of topics is comprehensive within the area of probability * Ample homework problems are organized into chapter sections

  10. Striatal activity is modulated by target probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hon, Nicholas

    2017-06-14

    Target probability has well-known neural effects. In the brain, target probability is known to affect frontal activity, with lower probability targets producing more prefrontal activation than those that occur with higher probability. Although the effect of target probability on cortical activity is well specified, its effect on subcortical structures such as the striatum is less well understood. Here, I examined this issue and found that the striatum was highly responsive to target probability. This is consistent with its hypothesized role in the gating of salient information into higher-order task representations. The current data are interpreted in light of that fact that different components of the striatum are sensitive to different types of task-relevant information.

  11. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  12. A fluctuation relation for the probability of energy backscatter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vela-Martin, Alberto; Jimenez, Javier

    2017-11-01

    We simulate the large scales of an inviscid turbulent flow in a triply periodic box using a dynamic Smagorinsky model for the sub-grid stresses. The flow, which is forced to constant kinetic energy, is fully reversible and can develop a sustained inverse energy cascade. However, due to the large number of degrees freedom, the probability of spontaneous mean inverse energy flux is negligible. In order to quantify the probability of inverse energy cascades, we test a local fluctuation relation of the form log P(A) = - c(V , t) A , where P(A) = p(| Cs|V,t = A) / p(| Cs|V , t = - A) , p is probability, and | Cs|V,t is the average of the least-squared dynamic model coefficient over volume V and time t. This is confirmed when Cs is averaged over sufficiently large domains and long times, and c is found to depend linearly on V and t. In the limit in which V 1 / 3 is of the order of the integral scale and t is of the order of the eddy-turnover time, we recover a global fluctuation relation that predicts a negligible probability of a sustained inverse energy cascade. For smaller V and t, the local fluctuation relation provides useful predictions on the occurrence of local energy backscatter. Funded by the ERC COTURB project.

  13. Probability distributions with truncated, log and bivariate extensions

    CERN Document Server

    Thomopoulos, Nick T

    2018-01-01

    This volume presents a concise and practical overview of statistical methods and tables not readily available in other publications. It begins with a review of the commonly used continuous and discrete probability distributions. Several useful distributions that are not so common and less understood are described with examples and applications in full detail: discrete normal, left-partial, right-partial, left-truncated normal, right-truncated normal, lognormal, bivariate normal, and bivariate lognormal. Table values are provided with examples that enable researchers to easily apply the distributions to real applications and sample data. The left- and right-truncated normal distributions offer a wide variety of shapes in contrast to the symmetrically shaped normal distribution, and a newly developed spread ratio enables analysts to determine which of the three distributions best fits a particular set of sample data. The book will be highly useful to anyone who does statistical and probability analysis. This in...

  14. Spatial probability aids visual stimulus discrimination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Druker

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We investigated whether the statistical predictability of a target's location would influence how quickly and accurately it was classified. Recent results have suggested that spatial probability can be a cue for the allocation of attention in visual search. One explanation for probability cuing is spatial repetition priming. In our two experiments we used probability distributions that were continuous across the display rather than relying on a few arbitrary screen locations. This produced fewer spatial repeats and allowed us to dissociate the effect of a high probability location from that of short-term spatial repetition. The task required participants to quickly judge the color of a single dot presented on a computer screen. In Experiment 1, targets were more probable in an off-center hotspot of high probability that gradually declined to a background rate. Targets garnered faster responses if they were near earlier target locations (priming and if they were near the high probability hotspot (probability cuing. In Experiment 2, target locations were chosen on three concentric circles around fixation. One circle contained 80% of targets. The value of this ring distribution is that it allowed for a spatially restricted high probability zone in which sequentially repeated trials were not likely to be physically close. Participant performance was sensitive to the high-probability circle in addition to the expected effects of eccentricity and the distance to recent targets. These two experiments suggest that inhomogeneities in spatial probability can be learned and used by participants on-line and without prompting as an aid for visual stimulus discrimination and that spatial repetition priming is not a sufficient explanation for this effect. Future models of attention should consider explicitly incorporating the probabilities of targets locations and features.

  15. Is probability of frequency too narrow?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.

    1993-01-01

    Modern methods of statistical data analysis, such as empirical and hierarchical Bayesian methods, should find increasing use in future Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) applications. In addition, there will be a more formalized use of expert judgment in future PRAs. These methods require an extension of the probabilistic framework of PRA, in particular, the popular notion of probability of frequency, to consideration of frequency of frequency, frequency of probability, and probability of probability. The genesis, interpretation, and examples of these three extended notions are discussed

  16. Strike-slip faults offshore southern Taiwan: implications for the oblique arc-continent collision processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuh, Shi-Chie; Liu, Char-Shine; Lundberg, Neil; Reed, Donald L.

    1997-06-01

    Taiwan is the site of present-day oblique arc-continent collision between the Luzon arc of the Philippine Sea plate and the Chinese continental margin. The major structural pattern revealed from marine geophysical studies in the area offshore southern Taiwan is that of a doubly-vergent orogenic belt, bounded by significant zones of thrusting on the west and east of the submarine accretionary wedge. Due to the oblique collision process, strike-slip faults could play an important role in this convergent domain. Topographic lineaments revealed from new digital bathymetry data and seismic reflection profiles confirm the existence of three sets of strike-slip faults in the collision-subduction zone offshore southern Taiwan: the N-S-trending left-lateral strike-slip faults within the Luzon volcanic arc, the NE-SW-trending right-lateral strike-slip faults across the accretionary wedge, and the NNE-SSW-trending left-lateral strike-slip faults lie in the frontal portion of the accretionary wedge. These strike-slip faults overprint pre-existing folds and thrusts and may convert into oblique thrusts or thrusts as the forearc blocks accrete to the mountain belt. A bookshelf rotation model is used to explain the observed geometrical relationships of these strike-slip fault systems. Based on this model, the counter-clockwise rotation of the forearc blocks in the area offshore southern Taiwan could have caused extrusion of the accretionary wedge material into the forearc basin. The originally continuous forearc basin is thus deformed into several closed and separate proto-collisional basins such as the Southern Longitudinal Trough and Taitung Trough. A tectonic evolution model which emphasizes on the development of various structures at different stages of the oblique arc-continent collision for the Taiwan mountain belt is proposed.

  17. Heel–toe running: A new look at the influence of foot strike pattern on impact force

    OpenAIRE

    John A. Mercer; Sarah Horsch

    2015-01-01

    Background/Objective: It is important to understand the factors that influence the impact force observed during running, since the impact force is likely to be related to overuse injuries. The purpose of this study was to compare the impact force during running when participants were instructed to use different foot strike patterns: obvious heel strike (Obvious-HS), subtle heel strike (Subtle-HS), midfoot strike (Mid-FS), and fore foot strike (Fore-FS) patterns. Methods: Participants (n = ...

  18. Defining the most probable location of the parahippocampal place area using cortex-based alignment and cross-validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiner, Kevin S; Barnett, Michael A; Witthoft, Nathan; Golarai, Golijeh; Stigliani, Anthony; Kay, Kendrick N; Gomez, Jesse; Natu, Vaidehi S; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl; Grill-Spector, Kalanit

    2018-04-15

    The parahippocampal place area (PPA) is a widely studied high-level visual region in the human brain involved in place and scene processing. The goal of the present study was to identify the most probable location of place-selective voxels in medial ventral temporal cortex. To achieve this goal, we first used cortex-based alignment (CBA) to create a probabilistic place-selective region of interest (ROI) from one group of 12 participants. We then tested how well this ROI could predict place selectivity in each hemisphere within a new group of 12 participants. Our results reveal that a probabilistic ROI (pROI) generated from one group of 12 participants accurately predicts the location and functional selectivity in individual brains from a new group of 12 participants, despite between subject variability in the exact location of place-selective voxels relative to the folding of parahippocampal cortex. Additionally, the prediction accuracy of our pROI is significantly higher than that achieved by volume-based Talairach alignment. Comparing the location of the pROI of the PPA relative to published data from over 500 participants, including data from the Human Connectome Project, shows a striking convergence of the predicted location of the PPA and the cortical location of voxels exhibiting the highest place selectivity across studies using various methods and stimuli. Specifically, the most predictive anatomical location of voxels exhibiting the highest place selectivity in medial ventral temporal cortex is the junction of the collateral and anterior lingual sulci. Methodologically, we make this pROI freely available (vpnl.stanford.edu/PlaceSelectivity), which provides a means to accurately identify a functional region from anatomical MRI data when fMRI data are not available (for example, in patient populations). Theoretically, we consider different anatomical and functional factors that may contribute to the consistent anatomical location of place selectivity

  19. Foot strike patterns of recreational and sub-elite runners in a long-distance road race.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Peter; Higgins, Erin; Kaminski, Justin; Decker, Tamara; Preble, Janine; Lyons, Daniela; McIntyre, Kevin; Normile, Adam

    2011-12-01

    Although the biomechanical properties of the various types of running foot strike (rearfoot, midfoot, and forefoot) have been studied extensively in the laboratory, only a few studies have attempted to quantify the frequency of running foot strike variants among runners in competitive road races. We classified the left and right foot strike patterns of 936 distance runners, most of whom would be considered of recreational or sub-elite ability, at the 10 km point of a half-marathon/marathon road race. We classified 88.9% of runners at the 10 km point as rearfoot strikers, 3.4% as midfoot strikers, 1.8% as forefoot strikers, and 5.9% of runners exhibited discrete foot strike asymmetry. Rearfoot striking was more common among our sample of mostly recreational distance runners than has been previously reported for samples of faster runners. We also compared foot strike patterns of 286 individual marathon runners between the 10 km and 32 km race locations and observed increased frequency of rearfoot striking at 32 km. A large percentage of runners switched from midfoot and forefoot foot strikes at 10 km to rearfoot strikes at 32 km. The frequency of discrete foot strike asymmetry declined from the 10 km to the 32 km location. Among marathon runners, we found no significant relationship between foot strike patterns and race times.

  20. Geo-electrical and geological strikes of the Mount Lamongan geothermal area, East Java, Indonesia – preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugraheni, L. R.; Niasari, S. W.; Nukman, M.

    2018-04-01

    Geothermal manifestations located in the Tiris, Mount Lamongan, Probolinggo, consist of warm springs. These warm springs have temperature from 35° until 45°C. Tiris fault has NW-SE dominant orientation, similar to some lineaments of maars and cinder cones around Mount Lamongan. The Mount Lamongan geothermal area is situated between Bromo and Argapura volcanoes. This study aims to map the geo-electrical and geological strikes in the study area. Phase tensor analysis has been performed in this study to determine geo-electrical strike of study area. Geological field campaign has been conducted to measure geological strikes. Then, orientation of geo-electrical strike was compared to geological strike. The result presents that the regional geological strike of study area is NW-SE while the orientation of geo-electrical strike is N-S.

  1. Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1996-01-01

    To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship...

  2. Probability of Grounding and Collision Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1996-01-01

    To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents have to be developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences have to be analyzed and assessed.The present notes outline a method for evaluation of the probability...

  3. Introducing Disjoint and Independent Events in Probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, I. W.; Zwiers, F. W.

    Two central concepts in probability theory are those of independence and mutually exclusive events. This document is intended to provide suggestions to teachers that can be used to equip students with an intuitive, comprehensive understanding of these basic concepts in probability. The first section of the paper delineates mutually exclusive and…

  4. Collective probabilities algorithm for surface hopping calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastida, Adolfo; Cruz, Carlos; Zuniga, Jose; Requena, Alberto

    2003-01-01

    General equations that transition probabilities of the hopping algorithms in surface hopping calculations must obey to assure the equality between the average quantum and classical populations are derived. These equations are solved for two particular cases. In the first it is assumed that probabilities are the same for all trajectories and that the number of hops is kept to a minimum. These assumptions specify the collective probabilities (CP) algorithm, for which the transition probabilities depend on the average populations for all trajectories. In the second case, the probabilities for each trajectory are supposed to be completely independent of the results from the other trajectories. There is, then, a unique solution of the general equations assuring that the transition probabilities are equal to the quantum population of the target state, which is referred to as the independent probabilities (IP) algorithm. The fewest switches (FS) algorithm developed by Tully is accordingly understood as an approximate hopping algorithm which takes elements from the accurate CP and IP solutions. A numerical test of all these hopping algorithms is carried out for a one-dimensional two-state problem with two avoiding crossings which shows the accuracy and computational efficiency of the collective probabilities algorithm proposed, the limitations of the FS algorithm and the similarity between the results offered by the IP algorithm and those obtained with the Ehrenfest method

  5. Examples of Neutrosophic Probability in Physics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu Yuhua

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper re-discusses the problems of the so-called “law of nonconservation of parity” and “accelerating expansion of the universe”, and presents the examples of determining Neutrosophic Probability of the experiment of Chien-Shiung Wu et al in 1957, and determining Neutrosophic Probability of accelerating expansion of the partial universe.

  6. Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harrison, Glenn W.; Martínez-Correa, Jimmy; Swarthout, J. Todd

    objective probabilities. Drawing a sample from the same subject population, we find evidence that the binary lottery procedure induces linear utility in a subjective probability elicitation task using the Quadratic Scoring Rule. We also show that the binary lottery procedure can induce direct revelation...

  7. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  8. Some open problems in noncommutative probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruszynski, P.

    1981-01-01

    A generalization of probability measures to non-Boolean structures is discussed. The starting point of the theory is the Gleason theorem about the form of measures on closed subspaces of a Hilbert space. The problems are formulated in terms of probability on lattices of projections in arbitrary von Neumann algebras. (Auth.)

  9. Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

    2016-01-01

    Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

  10. Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sashi

    2015-01-01

    There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

  11. Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

  12. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be...

  13. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  14. Against All Odds: When Logic Meets Probability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Benthem, J.; Katoen, J.-P.; Langerak, R.; Rensink, A.

    2017-01-01

    This paper is a light walk along interfaces between logic and probability, triggered by a chance encounter with Ed Brinksma. It is not a research paper, or a literature survey, but a pointer to issues. I discuss both direct combinations of logic and probability and structured ways in which logic can

  15. An introduction to probability and stochastic processes

    CERN Document Server

    Melsa, James L

    2013-01-01

    Geared toward college seniors and first-year graduate students, this text is designed for a one-semester course in probability and stochastic processes. Topics covered in detail include probability theory, random variables and their functions, stochastic processes, linear system response to stochastic processes, Gaussian and Markov processes, and stochastic differential equations. 1973 edition.

  16. The probability of the false vacuum decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiselev, V.; Selivanov, K.

    1983-01-01

    The closed expession for the probability of the false vacuum decay in (1+1) dimensions is given. The probability of false vacuum decay is expessed as the product of exponential quasiclassical factor and a functional determinant of the given form. The method for calcutation of this determinant is developed and a complete answer for (1+1) dimensions is given

  17. Probability elements of the mathematical theory

    CERN Document Server

    Heathcote, C R

    2000-01-01

    Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.

  18. The transition probabilities of the reciprocity model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, T.A.B.

    1999-01-01

    The reciprocity model is a continuous-time Markov chain model used for modeling longitudinal network data. A new explicit expression is derived for its transition probability matrix. This expression can be checked relatively easily. Some properties of the transition probabilities are given, as well

  19. Probability numeracy and health insurance purchase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dillingh, Rik; Kooreman, Peter; Potters, Jan

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides new field evidence on the role of probability numeracy in health insurance purchase. Our regression results, based on rich survey panel data, indicate that the expenditure on two out of three measures of health insurance first rises with probability numeracy and then falls again.

  20. Select injury-related variables are affected by stride length and foot strike style during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Elizabeth R; Derrick, Timothy R

    2015-09-01

    Some frontal plane and transverse plane variables have been associated with running injury, but it is not known if they differ with foot strike style or as stride length is shortened. To identify if step width, iliotibial band strain and strain rate, positive and negative free moment, pelvic drop, hip adduction, knee internal rotation, and rearfoot eversion differ between habitual rearfoot and habitual mid-/forefoot strikers when running with both a rearfoot strike (RFS) and a mid-/forefoot strike (FFS) at 3 stride lengths. Controlled laboratory study. A total of 42 healthy runners (21 habitual rearfoot, 21 habitual mid-/forefoot) ran overground at 3.35 m/s with both a RFS and a FFS at their preferred stride lengths and 5% and 10% shorter. Variables did not differ between habitual groups. Step width was 1.5 cm narrower for FFS, widening to 0.8 cm as stride length shortened. Iliotibial band strain and strain rate did not differ between foot strikes but decreased as stride length shortened (0.3% and 1.8%/s, respectively). Pelvic drop was reduced 0.7° for FFS compared with RFS, and both pelvic drop and hip adduction decreased as stride length shortened (0.8° and 1.5°, respectively). Peak knee internal rotation was not affected by foot strike or stride length. Peak rearfoot eversion was not different between foot strikes but decreased 0.6° as stride length shortened. Peak positive free moment (normalized to body weight [BW] and height [h]) was not affected by foot strike or stride length. Peak negative free moment was -0.0038 BW·m/h greater for FFS and decreased -0.0004 BW·m/h as stride length shortened. The small decreases in most variables as stride length shortened were likely associated with the concomitant wider step width. RFS had slightly greater pelvic drop, while FFS had slightly narrower step width and greater negative free moment. Shortening one's stride length may decrease or at least not increase propensity for running injuries based on the variables

  1. Options and pitfalls of normal tissues complication probability models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorr, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    Full text: Technological improvements in the physical administration of radiotherapy have led to increasing conformation of the treatment volume (TV) with the planning target volume (PTV) and of the irradiated volume (IV) with the TV. In this process of improvement of the physical quality of radiotherapy, the total volumes of organs at risk exposed to significant doses have significantly decreased, resulting in increased inhomogeneities in the dose distributions within these organs. This has resulted in a need to identify and quantify volume effects in different normal tissues. Today, irradiated volume today must be considered a 6t h 'R' of radiotherapy, in addition to the 5 'Rs' defined by Withers and Steel in the mid/end 1980 s. The current status of knowledge of these volume effects has recently been summarized for many organs and tissues by the QUANTEC (Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic) initiative [Int. J. Radiat. Oncol. BioI. Phys. 76 (3) Suppl., 2010]. However, the concept of using dose-volume histogram parameters as a basis for dose constraints, even without applying any models for normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP), is based on (some) assumptions that are not met in clinical routine treatment planning. First, and most important, dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters are usually derived from a single, 'snap-shot' CT-scan, without considering physiological (urinary bladder, intestine) or radiation induced (edema, patient weight loss) changes during radiotherapy. Also, individual variations, or different institutional strategies of delineating organs at risk are rarely considered. Moreover, the reduction of the 3-dimentional dose distribution into a '2dimensl' DVH parameter implies that the localization of the dose within an organ is irrelevant-there are ample examples that this assumption is not justified. Routinely used dose constraints also do not take into account that the residual function of an organ may be

  2. Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshti, Ajay M.

    2017-01-01

    Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

  3. Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narens, Louis

    2014-01-01

    Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  4. Acute neuromuscular responses to short and long roundhouse kick striking paces in professional Muay Thai fighters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimadoro, Giuseppe; Mahaffey, Ryan; Babault, Nicolas

    2018-04-04

    Muay Thai fighters strongly rely on the use of the roundhouse kick due to its effectiveness (i.e. power) and implications on the final score. Therefore, different striking tempos at full power are used during training as a method to enhance kicking power. However, the neuromuscular responses are unknown. Thus, the goal of this study was to investigate neuromuscular responses to a single bout of shorter (every second = H1) and longer (every 3s = H3) kick striking time intervals, measured with the countermovement jump (CMJ). Nine professional Muay Thai fighters participated in this randomized, cross-over trial. CMJs were measured on force plates before and after (post 0min, post 5min, post 10min, post 20min and post 30min) two striking (1set x 20reps) conditions (H1; H3). Although no difference was observed between H1 and H3 values, neuromuscular fatigue parameters displayed different patterns over time. CMJ height decreased immediately after H3 striking (PMuay Thai and conditioning coaches should focus on hard striking with both long and slow pacing during specific heavy bag or pad work.

  5. The balancing act between the constitutional right to strike and the constitutional right to education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H J (Jaco Deacon

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available While the South African Constitution enshrines both children's right to a basic education and teachers' right to strike, conflict between these two often occurs when the way in which teachers' unions conduct strike actions detracts from learners' education. This article identifies the parties affected by industrial action in the school context, and then proceeds to examine educators' right to strike as defined by the provisions of the Labour Relations Act. The unique implications of picketing in the education environment are then discussed, covering relevant questions such as where pickets may be held, the issue of picketing rules as well as unprotected pickets. Even though we are faced with a qualified right to strike as opposed to an unqualified right to education, the South African reality seems to be that striking teachers are handled with kid gloves. It is therefore concluded that the vast range of existing laws regulating protest action should be applied more effectively. One of the most important aspects should be the picketing rules, which should clearly determine whether picketing in fact contributes to resolution of the dispute, and how learners' interests and rights may best be actualised.

  6. Midtarsal locking, the windlass mechanism, and running strike pattern: A kinematic and kinetic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruening, Dustin A; Pohl, Michael B; Takahashi, Kota Z; Barrios, Joaquin A

    2018-05-17

    Changes in running strike pattern affect ankle and knee mechanics, but little is known about the influence of strike pattern on the joints distal to the ankle. The purpose of this study was to explore the effects of forefoot strike (FFS) and rearfoot strike (RFS) running patterns on foot kinematics and kinetics, from the perspectives of the midtarsal locking theory and the windlass mechanism. Per the midtarsal locking theory, we hypothesized that the ankle would be more inverted in early stance when using a FFS, resulting in decreased midtarsal joint excursions and increased dynamic stiffness. Associated with a more engaged windlass mechanism, we hypothesized that a FFS would elicit increased metatarsophalangeal joint excursions and negative work in late stance. Eighteen healthy female runners ran overground with both FFS and RFS patterns. Instrumented motion capture and a validated multi-segment foot model were used to analyze midtarsal and metatarsophalangeal joint kinematics and kinetics. During early stance in FFS the ankle was more inverted, with concurrently decreased midtarsal eversion (p strike pattern during running. However, the windlass mechanism appeared to be engaged to a greater extent during FFS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Characterization of Foot-Strike Patterns: Lack of an Association With Injuries or Performance in Soldiers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warr, Bradley J; Fellin, Rebecca E; Sauer, Shane G; Goss, Donald L; Frykman, Peter N; Seay, Joseph F

    2015-07-01

    Characterize the distribution of foot-strike (FS) patterns in U.S. Army Soldiers and determine if FS patterns are related to self-reported running injuries and performance. 341 male Soldiers from a U.S. Army Combined Arms Battalion ran at their training pace for 100 meters, and FSs were recorded in the sagittal plane. Participants also completed a survey related to training habits, injury history, and run times. Two researchers classified FS patterns as heel strike (HS) or nonheel strike (NHS, combination of midfoot strike and forefoot strike patterns). Two clinicians classified the musculoskeletal injuries as acute or overuse. The relationship of FS type with two-mile run time and running-related injury was analyzed (p ≤ 0.05). The Soldiers predominately landed with an HS (87%) and only 13% were characterized as NHS. Running-related injury was similar between HS (50.3%) and NHS (55.6%) patterns (p = 0.51). There was no difference (p = 0.14) between overuse injury rates between an HS pattern (31.8%) and an NHS pattern (31.0%). Two-mile run times were also similar, with both groups averaging 14:48 minutes. Soldiers were mostly heel strikers (87%) in this U.S. Army Combined Arms Battalion. Neither FS pattern was advantageous for increased performance or decreased incidence of running-related injury. Reprint & Copyright © 2015 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  8. Joint contact loading in forefoot and rearfoot strike patterns during running.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney, Brandon D; Derrick, Timothy R

    2013-09-03

    Research concerning forefoot strike pattern (FFS) versus rearfoot strike pattern (RFS) running has focused on the ground reaction force even though internal joint contact forces are a more direct measure of the loads responsible for injury. The main purpose of this study was to determine the internal loading of the joints for each strike pattern. A secondary purpose was to determine if converted FFS and RFS runners can adequately represent habitual runners with regards to the internal joint loading. Using inverse dynamics to calculate the net joint moments and reaction forces and optimization techniques to estimate muscle forces, we determined the axial compressive loading at the ankle, knee, and hip. Subjects consisted of 15 habitual FFS and 15 habitual RFS competitive runners. Each subject ran at a preferred running velocity with their habitual strike pattern and then converted to the opposite strike pattern. Plantar flexor muscle forces and net ankle joint moments were greater in the FFS running compared to the RFS running during the first half of the stance phase. The average contact forces during this period increased by 41.7% at the ankle and 14.4% at the knee joint during FFS running. Peak ankle joint contact force was 1.5 body weights greater during FFS running (pstrike pattern. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Effect of Acute Alterations in Foot Strike Patterns during Running on Sagittal Plane Lower Limb Kinematics and Kinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, Kevin A; Lynn, Scott K; Mikelson, Lisa R; Noffal, Guillermo J; Judelson, Daniel A

    2015-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of foot strike patterns and converted foot strike patterns on lower limb kinematics and kinetics at the hip, knee, and ankle during a shod condition. Subjects were videotaped with a high speed camera while running a 5km at self-selected pace on a treadmill to determine natural foot strike pattern on day one. Preferred forefoot group (PFFG, n = 10) and preferred rear foot group (PRFG, n = 11) subjects were identified through slow motion video playback (n = 21, age = 22.8±2.2 years, mass = 73.1±14.5 kg, height 1.75 ± 0.10 m). On day two, subjects performed five overground run trials in both their natural and unnatural strike patterns while motion and force data were collected. Data were collected over two days so that foot strike videos could be analyzed for group placement purposes. Several 2 (Foot Strike Pattern -forefoot strike [FFS], rearfoot strike [RFS]) x 2 (Group - PFFG, PRFG) mixed model ANOVAs (p strike patterns during shod running can create alterations in certain lower limb kinematic and kinetic measures that are not dependent on the preferred foot strike pattern of the individual. This research also challenges the contention that the impact transient spike in the vertical ground reaction force curve is only present during a rear foot strike type of running gait. Key pointsFootstrike pattern changes should be individually considered and implemented based on individual histories/abilitiesForefoot strike patterns increase external dorsiflexion momentsRearfoot strike patterns increase external knee flexion momentsRecreational shod runners are able to mimic habitual mechanics of different foot strike patterns.

  10. Evaluation of nuclear power plant component failure probability and core damage probability using simplified PSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Yoshio

    2000-01-01

    It is anticipated that the change of frequency of surveillance tests, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of safety related components may cause the change of component failure probability and result in the change of core damage probability. It is also anticipated that the change is different depending on the initiating event frequency or the component types. This study assessed the change of core damage probability using simplified PSA model capable of calculating core damage probability in a short time period, which is developed by the US NRC to process accident sequence precursors, when various component's failure probability is changed between 0 and 1, or Japanese or American initiating event frequency data are used. As a result of the analysis, (1) It was clarified that frequency of surveillance test, preventive maintenance or parts replacement of motor driven pumps (high pressure injection pumps, residual heat removal pumps, auxiliary feedwater pumps) should be carefully changed, since the core damage probability's change is large, when the base failure probability changes toward increasing direction. (2) Core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance test frequency change, since the core damage probability change is small, when motor operated valves and turbine driven auxiliary feed water pump failure probability changes around one figure. (3) Core damage probability change is small, when Japanese failure probability data are applied to emergency diesel generator, even if failure probability changes one figure from the base value. On the other hand, when American failure probability data is applied, core damage probability increase is large, even if failure probability changes toward increasing direction. Therefore, when Japanese failure probability data is applied, core damage probability change is insensitive to surveillance tests frequency change etc. (author)

  11. Acceptance Probability (P a) Analysis for Process Validation Lifecycle Stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsmeyer, Daniel; Pazhayattil, Ajay; Chen, Shu; Munaretto, Francesco; Hye, Maksuda; Sanghvi, Pradeep

    2016-04-01

    This paper introduces an innovative statistical approach towards understanding how variation impacts the acceptance criteria of quality attributes. Because of more complex stage-wise acceptance criteria, traditional process capability measures are inadequate for general application in the pharmaceutical industry. The probability of acceptance concept provides a clear measure, derived from specific acceptance criteria for each quality attribute. In line with the 2011 FDA Guidance, this approach systematically evaluates data and scientifically establishes evidence that a process is capable of consistently delivering quality product. The probability of acceptance provides a direct and readily understandable indication of product risk. As with traditional capability indices, the acceptance probability approach assumes that underlying data distributions are normal. The computational solutions for dosage uniformity and dissolution acceptance criteria are readily applicable. For dosage uniformity, the expected AV range may be determined using the s lo and s hi values along with the worst case estimates of the mean. This approach permits a risk-based assessment of future batch performance of the critical quality attributes. The concept is also readily applicable to sterile/non sterile liquid dose products. Quality attributes such as deliverable volume and assay per spray have stage-wise acceptance that can be converted into an acceptance probability. Accepted statistical guidelines indicate processes with C pk > 1.33 as performing well within statistical control and those with C pk  1.33 is associated with a centered process that will statistically produce less than 63 defective units per million. This is equivalent to an acceptance probability of >99.99%.

  12. Assessing the clinical probability of pulmonary embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miniati, M.; Pistolesi, M.

    2001-01-01

    Clinical assessment is a cornerstone of the recently validated diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE). Although the diagnostic yield of individual symptoms, signs, and common laboratory tests is limited, the combination of these variables, either by empirical assessment or by a prediction rule, can be used to express a clinical probability of PE. The latter may serve as pretest probability to predict the probability of PE after further objective testing (posterior or post-test probability). Over the last few years, attempts have been made to develop structured prediction models for PE. In a Canadian multicenter prospective study, the clinical probability of PE was rated as low, intermediate, or high according to a model which included assessment of presenting symptoms and signs, risk factors, and presence or absence of an alternative diagnosis at least as likely as PE. Recently, a simple clinical score was developed to stratify outpatients with suspected PE into groups with low, intermediate, or high clinical probability. Logistic regression was used to predict parameters associated with PE. A score ≤ 4 identified patients with low probability of whom 10% had PE. The prevalence of PE in patients with intermediate (score 5-8) and high probability (score ≥ 9) was 38 and 81%, respectively. As opposed to the Canadian model, this clinical score is standardized. The predictor variables identified in the model, however, were derived from a database of emergency ward patients. This model may, therefore, not be valid in assessing the clinical probability of PE in inpatients. In the PISA-PED study, a clinical diagnostic algorithm was developed which rests on the identification of three relevant clinical symptoms and on their association with electrocardiographic and/or radiographic abnormalities specific for PE. Among patients who, according to the model, had been rated as having a high clinical probability, the prevalence of proven PE was 97%, while it was 3

  13. [Hunger striking in prisons: ethics and the ethical and legal aspects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Guerrero, J

    2013-01-01

    Hunger strike is a common form of protest in prisons and is a potential cause of many types of problems, both for the prison administration and the doctors who care for prisoners who participate in one. Issues of conflict of rights and obligations involved, and how to treat people who are subject to the Administration, which in this case takes the position of guarantor, have created major controversies over doctrine. Conscientious objection and the conflict of dual loyalty of doctors working in prisons are also issues closely linked to a prison hunger strike. In this paper we review the solution given to the problem of treatment of a prison hunger strike from three perspectives: ethics, ethical and legal.

  14. [Lightning strikes and lightning injuries in prehospital emergency medicine. Relevance, results, and practical implications].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkelbein, J; Spelten, O; Wetsch, W A

    2013-01-01

    Up to 32.2% of patients in a burn center suffer from electrical injuries. Of these patients, 2-4% present with lightning injuries. In Germany, approximately 50 people per year are injured by a lightning strike and 3-7 fatally. Typically, people involved in outdoor activities are endangered and affected. A lightning strike usually produces significantly higher energy doses as compared to those in common electrical injuries. Therefore, injury patterns vary significantly. Especially in high voltage injuries and lightning injuries, internal injuries are of special importance. Mortality ranges between 10 and 30% after a lightning strike. Emergency medical treatment is similar to common electrical injuries. Patients with lightning injuries should be transported to a regional or supraregional trauma center. In 15% of all cases multiple people may be injured. Therefore, it is of outstanding importance to create emergency plans and evacuation plans in good time for mass gatherings endangered by possible lightning.

  15. 12 weeks of simulated barefoot running changes foot-strike patterns in female runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, C; Fleming, N; Donne, B; Blanksby, B

    2014-05-01

    To investigate the effect of a transition program of simulated barefoot running (SBR) on running kinematics and foot-strike patterns, female recreational athletes (n=9, age 29 ± 3 yrs) without SBR experience gradually increased running distance in Vibram FiveFingers SBR footwear over 12 weeks. Matched controls (n=10, age 30 ± 4 yrs) continued running in standard footwear. A 3-D motion analysis of treadmill running at 12 km/h(-1) was performed by both groups, barefoot and shod, pre- and post-intervention. Post-intervention data indicated a more-forefoot strike pattern in the SBR group compared to controls; both running barefoot (P>0.05), and shod (Pstrike (Pforefoot strike pattern and "barefoot" kinematics, regardless of preferred footwear. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  16. Upgrading Probability via Fractions of Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frič Roman

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The influence of “Grundbegriffe” by A. N. Kolmogorov (published in 1933 on education in the area of probability and its impact on research in stochastics cannot be overestimated. We would like to point out three aspects of the classical probability theory “calling for” an upgrade: (i classical random events are black-and-white (Boolean; (ii classical random variables do not model quantum phenomena; (iii basic maps (probability measures and observables { dual maps to random variables have very different “mathematical nature”. Accordingly, we propose an upgraded probability theory based on Łukasiewicz operations (multivalued logic on events, elementary category theory, and covering the classical probability theory as a special case. The upgrade can be compared to replacing calculations with integers by calculations with rational (and real numbers. Namely, to avoid the three objections, we embed the classical (Boolean random events (represented by the f0; 1g-valued indicator functions of sets into upgraded random events (represented by measurable {0; 1}-valued functions, the minimal domain of probability containing “fractions” of classical random events, and we upgrade the notions of probability measure and random variable.

  17. Failure probability analysis of optical grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Yaoquan; Guo, Wei; Sun, Weiqiang; Jin, Yaohui; Hu, Weisheng

    2008-11-01

    Optical grid, the integrated computing environment based on optical network, is expected to be an efficient infrastructure to support advanced data-intensive grid applications. In optical grid, the faults of both computational and network resources are inevitable due to the large scale and high complexity of the system. With the optical network based distributed computing systems extensive applied in the processing of data, the requirement of the application failure probability have been an important indicator of the quality of application and an important aspect the operators consider. This paper will present a task-based analysis method of the application failure probability in optical grid. Then the failure probability of the entire application can be quantified, and the performance of reducing application failure probability in different backup strategies can be compared, so that the different requirements of different clients can be satisfied according to the application failure probability respectively. In optical grid, when the application based DAG (directed acyclic graph) is executed in different backup strategies, the application failure probability and the application complete time is different. This paper will propose new multi-objective differentiated services algorithm (MDSA). New application scheduling algorithm can guarantee the requirement of the failure probability and improve the network resource utilization, realize a compromise between the network operator and the application submission. Then differentiated services can be achieved in optical grid.

  18. Ankle and knee kinetics between strike patterns at common training speeds in competitive male runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhman, Daniel; Melcher, Daniel; Paquette, Max R

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the interaction of foot strike and common speeds on sagittal plane ankle and knee joint kinetics in competitive rear foot strike (RFS) runners when running with a RFS pattern and an imposed forefoot strike (FFS) pattern. Sixteen competitive habitual male RFS runners ran at two different speeds (i.e. 8 and 6 min mile(-1)) using their habitual RFS and an imposed FFS pattern. A repeated measures analysis of variance was used to assess a potential interaction between strike pattern and speed for selected ground reaction force (GRF) variables and, sagittal plane ankle and knee kinematic and kinetic variables. No foot strike and speed interaction was observed for any of the kinetic variables. Habitual RFS yielded a greater loading rate of the vertical GRF, peak ankle dorsiflexor moment, peak knee extensor moment, peak knee eccentric extensor power, peak dorsiflexion and sagittal plane knee range of motion compared to imposed FFS. Imposed FFS yielded greater maximum vertical GRF, peak ankle plantarflexor moment, peak ankle eccentric plantarflexor power and sagittal plane ankle ROM compared to habitual RFS. Consistent with previous literature, imposed FFS in habitual RFS reduces eccentric knee extensor and ankle dorsiflexor involvement but produce greater eccentric ankle plantarflexor action compared to RFS. These acute differences between strike patterns were independent of running speeds equivalent to typical easy and hard training runs in competitive male runners. Current findings along with previous literature suggest differences in lower extremity kinetics between habitual RFS and imposed FFS running are consistent among a variety of runner populations.

  19. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  20. Probability an introduction with statistical applications

    CERN Document Server

    Kinney, John J

    2014-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition""This is a well-written and impressively presented introduction to probability and statistics. The text throughout is highly readable, and the author makes liberal use of graphs and diagrams to clarify the theory.""  - The StatisticianThoroughly updated, Probability: An Introduction with Statistical Applications, Second Edition features a comprehensive exploration of statistical data analysis as an application of probability. The new edition provides an introduction to statistics with accessible coverage of reliability, acceptance sampling, confidence intervals, h

  1. Dependency models and probability of joint events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oerjasaeter, O.

    1982-08-01

    Probabilistic dependencies between components/systems are discussed with reference to a broad classification of potential failure mechanisms. Further, a generalized time-dependency model, based on conditional probabilities for estimation of the probability of joint events and event sequences is described. The applicability of this model is clarified/demonstrated by various examples. It is concluded that the described model of dependency is a useful tool for solving a variety of practical problems concerning the probability of joint events and event sequences where common cause and time-dependent failure mechanisms are involved. (Auth.)

  2. Handbook of probability theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rudas, Tamas

    2008-01-01

    ""This is a valuable reference guide for readers interested in gaining a basic understanding of probability theory or its applications in problem solving in the other disciplines.""-CHOICEProviding cutting-edge perspectives and real-world insights into the greater utility of probability and its applications, the Handbook of Probability offers an equal balance of theory and direct applications in a non-technical, yet comprehensive, format. Editor Tamás Rudas and the internationally-known contributors present the material in a manner so that researchers of vari

  3. Probabilities on Streams and Reflexive Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Schumann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Probability measures on streams (e.g. on hypernumbers and p-adic numbers have been defined. It was shown that these probabilities can be used for simulations of reflexive games. In particular, it can be proved that Aumann's agreement theorem does not hold for these probabilities. Instead of this theorem, there is a statement that is called the reflexion disagreement theorem. Based on this theorem, probabilistic and knowledge conditions can be defined for reflexive games at various reflexion levels up to the infinite level. (original abstract

  4. Concept of probability in statistical physics

    CERN Document Server

    Guttmann, Y M

    1999-01-01

    Foundational issues in statistical mechanics and the more general question of how probability is to be understood in the context of physical theories are both areas that have been neglected by philosophers of physics. This book fills an important gap in the literature by providing a most systematic study of how to interpret probabilistic assertions in the context of statistical mechanics. The book explores both subjectivist and objectivist accounts of probability, and takes full measure of work in the foundations of probability theory, in statistical mechanics, and in mathematical theory. It will be of particular interest to philosophers of science, physicists and mathematicians interested in foundational issues, and also to historians of science.

  5. Computation of the Complex Probability Function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trainer, Amelia Jo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ledwith, Patrick John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-08-22

    The complex probability function is important in many areas of physics and many techniques have been developed in an attempt to compute it for some z quickly and e ciently. Most prominent are the methods that use Gauss-Hermite quadrature, which uses the roots of the nth degree Hermite polynomial and corresponding weights to approximate the complex probability function. This document serves as an overview and discussion of the use, shortcomings, and potential improvements on the Gauss-Hermite quadrature for the complex probability function.

  6. Pre-aggregation for Probability Distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timko, Igor; Dyreson, Curtis E.; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    Motivated by the increasing need to analyze complex uncertain multidimensional data (e.g., in order to optimize and personalize location-based services), this paper proposes novel types of {\\em probabilistic} OLAP queries that operate on aggregate values that are probability distributions...... and the techniques to process these queries. The paper also presents the methods for computing the probability distributions, which enables pre-aggregation, and for using the pre-aggregated distributions for further aggregation. In order to achieve good time and space efficiency, the methods perform approximate...... multidimensional data analysis that is considered in this paper (i.e., approximate processing of probabilistic OLAP queries over probability distributions)....

  7. Comparing linear probability model coefficients across groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Ejrnæs, Mette; Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    of the following three components: outcome truncation, scale parameters and distributional shape of the predictor variable. These results point to limitations in using linear probability model coefficients for group comparisons. We also provide Monte Carlo simulations and real examples to illustrate......This article offers a formal identification analysis of the problem in comparing coefficients from linear probability models between groups. We show that differences in coefficients from these models can result not only from genuine differences in effects, but also from differences in one or more...... these limitations, and we suggest a restricted approach to using linear probability model coefficients in group comparisons....

  8. Modeling experiments using quantum and Kolmogorov probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, Karl

    2008-01-01

    Criteria are presented that permit a straightforward partition of experiments into sets that can be modeled using both quantum probability and the classical probability framework of Kolmogorov. These new criteria concentrate on the operational aspects of the experiments and lead beyond the commonly appreciated partition by relating experiments to commuting and non-commuting quantum operators as well as non-entangled and entangled wavefunctions. In other words the space of experiments that can be understood using classical probability is larger than usually assumed. This knowledge provides advantages for areas such as nanoscience and engineering or quantum computation.

  9. The probability outcome correpondence principle : a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keren, G.; Teigen, K.H.

    2001-01-01

    This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which

  10. Structured methods and striking moments: using question sequences in "living" ways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Roger

    2005-03-01

    This article draws together two seemingly incompatible practices in social constructionist therapies: the use of structured questioning methods (associated with solution-focused and narrative therapies) and the poetic elaboration of "striking moments" (associated with conversational therapies). To what extent can we value and use both styles of practice? Beginning with practitioners' concerns about the use of structured question sequences, I explore possibilities for resituating these methods in different conceptual and metaphorical frames, selectively drawing on ideas from the philosophy of striking moments. The aim is not to reduce one therapeutic style to another, but to encourage the teaching and practice of structured methods in more creative, improvisational, and "living" ways.

  11. Vådområder, flyvepladser og risiko for bird strikes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Kjær; Hounisen, Jens Peder

    2015-01-01

    Rapporten udgør en opdatering af Teknisk anvisning nr. 23 fra DMU (Christensen & Hounisen 2006), omhandlende risikovurdering for bird strikes (kollisioner mellem fugle og fly) i danske lufthavne ved etablering af vådområder nær disse. Rapporten analyserer relationen mellem ændrede forekomster af...... søer og enge/moser indenfor lufthavnenes sikkerhedszoner på 13 km og forekomsten af bird strikes i perioden 2006-2013. Anbefalinger til placering og størrelse af vådområder i lufthavnenes sikkerhedszoner er opdateret på baggrund af rapportens resultater....

  12. Research on Line Patrol Strategy of 110kV Transmission Line after Lightning Strike

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Mingjun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Lightning faults occupy in the majority of instantaneous fault and reclosing can usually be successful, so power supply can be restored without immediate patrol in many cases. Firstly, this paper introduces the lightning fault positioning and identifying method. Then test electrical performance of insulators after lightning strike from 110kV lines. Data shows that lightning strike has little effect on the electric performance of insulator. Finally, illustrating disposal process of the 110 kV transmission line after lightning fault, certifying that the power supply reliability be ensured without line patrol.

  13. Becoming stronger by becoming weaker: the hunger strike as a mode of doing politics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsson, Carl Sebastian; Danyi, Endre

    2018-01-01

    immigrants, we aim to achieve three things. First, we foreground physical bodies as political entities caught up in multiple modes of doing politics. Second, we show how such modes relate to one another, reinforcing citizenship, activism and party politics as specific performances of agency associated...... with liberal democracy. Finally, we argue that the Brussels hunger strike also challenges these performances by failing to meet certain expectations about what it is to be political/act politically. As the European refugee crisis is generating louder and louder voices, hunger strikes sensitise us to modes...

  14. A parabolic variational inequality arising from the valuation of strike reset options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhou; Yi, Fahuai; Dai, Min

    A strike reset option is an option that allows its holder to reset the strike price to the prevailing underlying asset price at a moment chosen by the holder. The pricing model of the option can be formulated as a one-dimensional parabolic variational inequality, or equivalently, a free boundary problem, where the free boundary just corresponds to the optimal reset strategy adopted by the holder of the option. This paper is concerned with the theoretical analysis of the model. The existence and uniqueness of the solution are established. Furthermore, we study properties of the free boundary. The monotonicity and C smoothness of the free boundary are proven in some situations.

  15. Probability, statistics and modelling in public health

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nikulin, Mikhail Stepanovich; Commenges, Daniel; Huber, Catherine

    2006-01-01

    .... Several well known biostatisticians from Europe and America were invited. A special issue of Lifetime Data Analysis was published (Volume 10, No 4), gathering some of the works discussed at this symposium. This volume gathers a larger number of papers, some of them being extended versions of papers published in the Lifetime Data Analysis issu...

  16. 8th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Giordani, Paolo; Vantaggi, Barbara; Gagolewski, Marek; Gil, María; Grzegorzewski, Przemysław; Hryniewicz, Olgierd

    2017-01-01

    This proceedings volume is a collection of peer reviewed papers presented at the 8th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS 2016) held in Rome (Italy). The book is dedicated to Data science which aims at developing automated methods to analyze massive amounts of data and to extract knowledge from them. It shows how Data science employs various programming techniques and methods of data wrangling, data visualization, machine learning, probability and statistics. The soft methods proposed in this volume represent a collection of tools in these fields that can also be useful for data science.

  17. Lightning strikes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dance, B.

    1982-01-01

    If a nuclear weapon were struck by a powerful lightning flash, what would happen Scientists have assembled a simulator to produce exceptionally powerful discharges to try to find the answer to this question by practical test. The Sandia facility enables the extremely powerful lightning discharges which occur only once in every hundred lightning strokes to be duplicated. A bolt is composed of a series of strokes between two clouds or between one cloud and the earth. The simulator consists of four circuits, an inductor, a resistor and a special crowbar-switch developed at Sandia. The crowbar is for accuracy in the simulation of a lightning stroke. The test data is conveyed to computers for analysis by means of fibre-optic links. The first series of tests involve the warhead for the Air-Launched Cruise Missile

  18. Striking movements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Sofia

    2011-01-01

    Like all music performance, percussion playing requires high control over timing and sound properties. Specific to percussionists, however, is the need to adjust the movement to different instruments with varying physical properties and tactile feedback to the player. Furthermore, the well defined...... note onsets and short interaction times between player and instrument do not allow for much adjustment once a stroke is initiated. The paper surveys research that shows a close relationship between movement and sound production, and how playing conditions such as tempo and the rebound after impact...

  19. Knotting probability of self-avoiding polygons under a topological constraint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

    2017-09-01

    We define the knotting probability of a knot K by the probability for a random polygon or self-avoiding polygon (SAP) of N segments having the knot type K. We show fundamental and generic properties of the knotting probability particularly its dependence on the excluded volume. We investigate them for the SAP consisting of hard cylindrical segments of unit length and radius rex. For various prime and composite knots, we numerically show that a compact formula describes the knotting probabilities for the cylindrical SAP as a function of segment number N and radius rex. It connects the small-N to the large-N behavior and even to lattice knots in the case of large values of radius. As the excluded volume increases, the maximum of the knotting probability decreases for prime knots except for the trefoil knot. If it is large, the trefoil knot and its descendants are dominant among the nontrivial knots in the SAP. From the factorization property of the knotting probability, we derive a sum rule among the estimates of a fitting parameter for all prime knots, which suggests the local knot picture and the dominance of the trefoil knot in the case of large excluded volumes. Here we remark that the cylindrical SAP gives a model of circular DNA which is negatively charged and semiflexible, where radius rex corresponds to the screening length.

  20. Knotting probability of self-avoiding polygons under a topological constraint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

    2017-09-07

    We define the knotting probability of a knot K by the probability for a random polygon or self-avoiding polygon (SAP) of N segments having the knot type K. We show fundamental and generic properties of the knotting probability particularly its dependence on the excluded volume. We investigate them for the SAP consisting of hard cylindrical segments of unit length and radius r ex . For various prime and composite knots, we numerically show that a compact formula describes the knotting probabilities for the cylindrical SAP as a function of segment number N and radius r ex . It connects the small-N to the large-N behavior and even to lattice knots in the case of large values of radius. As the excluded volume increases, the maximum of the knotting probability decreases for prime knots except for the trefoil knot. If it is large, the trefoil knot and its descendants are dominant among the nontrivial knots in the SAP. From the factorization property of the knotting probability, we derive a sum rule among the estimates of a fitting parameter for all prime knots, which suggests the local knot picture and the dominance of the trefoil knot in the case of large excluded volumes. Here we remark that the cylindrical SAP gives a model of circular DNA which is negatively charged and semiflexible, where radius r ex corresponds to the screening length.