WorldWideScience

Sample records for strictest future emissions

  1. The future(s) of emission allowances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenzweig, K.M.; Villarreal, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) established a sulfur dioxide emission allowance system to be implemented by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Under the two-phase implementation of the program, electric utilities responsible for approximately 70 percent of SO 2 emissions in the United States will be issued emission allowances, each representing authorization to emit one ton of sulfur dioxide during a specified calendar year or a later year. Allowances will be issued to utilities with electric-generating units affected by the CAAA limits, as well as to certain entities which may choose to opt-in to the program. Each utility or other emission source must hold a number of allowances at least equal to its total SO 2 emissions during any given year. Unused allowances may be sold, traded, or held in inventory for use against SO 2 emissions in future years. Anyone can buy and hold allowances, including affected utilities, non-utility companies, SO 2 allowances brokers and dealers, environmental groups, and individuals. During Phase I of the program, allowances equivalent to approximately 6.4 million tons of SO 2 emissions will be allocated annually to a group of 110 large, high-SO 2 -emitting power plants. In Phase II, virtually all power-generating utilities (representing approximately 99.4 percent of total US utility emissions) will be subject to the program. The number of allowances issued will increase to approximately 8.9 million a year, with certain special allocations raising the actual number issued to 9.48 million between the years 2000 to 2009, and 8.95 million yearly thereafter. Thus, the CAAA goal of annual emissions of 9 million tons should be achieved by 2010, when virtually all US emission sources will be participating in the program

  2. Future Emissions from Railway Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorenson, Spencer C.

    1998-01-01

    In investigation of the expected development in factors which influence railway energy consumption and emissions. Traffic factors such as train speed, load, an occupancy were considered. Tehcnical factors such an emissions factors, fleet composition and train weight were also considered. An estim......In investigation of the expected development in factors which influence railway energy consumption and emissions. Traffic factors such as train speed, load, an occupancy were considered. Tehcnical factors such an emissions factors, fleet composition and train weight were also considered...

  3. NOx emissions trading: Precursor to future growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colella, A.

    1993-01-01

    Title I of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 specified the framework for enhanced regulation in ozone non-attainment areas with increasingly stringent requirements dependent on the area classification - marginal, moderate, serious, severe or extreme. Before the CAAA were passed, only volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were regulated as precursors to ozone formation, Now, by statute, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are also regulated as ozone precursor. Under the CAAA, new sources and modifications of existing sources are subject to Title I permitting requirements in ozone non-attainment areas if emissions of NO x and/or VOCs exceed certain triggering levels. For many new or facility expansion projects, especially power generation, the NO x thresholds are easily exceeded thus triggering Title I non-attainment new source review which requires application of control technology to new equipment which results in the Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER), and securing emission reductions either internally or from other major sources to offset the increased emission from the new or modified source. The selection of a LAER technology is generally within an applicant's control. An applicant can determine up-front the engineering and cost considerations associated with LAER technology is assessing a project's viability. However, without a clear source of emission offsets of a means to secure them, assessing project viability could be difficult if not impossible. No available emission offsets means no industrial growth. For sources of NO x undergoing Title I new source review, a regional or state banking system that facilitates NO x emissions trading is needed as a precursor to future growth. This paper presents an overview of EPA's Emissions Trading Policy and Title I new source review offset provisions. Industry's concerns about emissions trading and recommendations for future trading programs are presented

  4. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  5. Automotive catalyst strategies for future emission systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williamson, W.B.; Summers, J.C.; Scaparo, J.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that while significant advances in Pt/Rh three-way catalyst (TWC) formulations have been accomplished, the use of Pd-containing catalysts for three-way emission control are of interest for overall noble metal cost reduction, lower Rh usage, and potential durability improvements. Applications of Pd are demonstrated for replacement of Pt in conventional Pt/Rh TWC systems, for use in Pd-only three-way catalysts and for lowering methanol and formaldehyde emissions at close-coupled locations on a methanol-fueled vehicle. The individual contributions of Pt, Pd and Rh for aged three-way performance indicate significant advantages of using Pd over Pt. A comparison of vehicle system control strategies illustrates that higher system temperatures significantly lower HC emissions, while air/fuel control strategies are most critical in lowering NO x emissions

  6. Research on aircraft emissions. Need for future work

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitt, A [German Aerospace Establishment, Cologne (Germany). Transport Research Div.

    1998-12-31

    Reflecting the present status of the research on aircraft emissions and their impacts upon the atmosphere, task-fields for a work programme for the research on aircraft emissions can be derived. Most important measures are to support the efforts to define adequate reduction measures, and (with highest priority) scenario-writing for the long-term development in aircraft emissions, to be able to include into the decision making process the aspect of in-time-reaction against unwanted future. Besides that, a steady monitoring of global aircraft emissions will be necessary. (author) 5 refs.

  7. Research on aircraft emissions. Need for future work

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitt, A. [German Aerospace Establishment, Cologne (Germany). Transport Research Div.

    1997-12-31

    Reflecting the present status of the research on aircraft emissions and their impacts upon the atmosphere, task-fields for a work programme for the research on aircraft emissions can be derived. Most important measures are to support the efforts to define adequate reduction measures, and (with highest priority) scenario-writing for the long-term development in aircraft emissions, to be able to include into the decision making process the aspect of in-time-reaction against unwanted future. Besides that, a steady monitoring of global aircraft emissions will be necessary. (author) 5 refs.

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions for the EU in four future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesschen, J.P.; Rienks, W.; Staritsky, I. [Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Eickhout, B.; Prins, A.G. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2009-12-15

    The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be revised in the near future. A proposed agricultural policy reform will affect many dimensions of the sustainable development of agriculture. One of these dimensions are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of four scenarios of the future, from the Eururalis study, and the effects of CAP options on GHG emissions from agriculture. The results provide an indication of the range of GHG emissions between the four diverging base scenarios and the differences with current emission levels in Member States and on EU level. Analysis of the possible impact of the measures on GHG emissions showed that this would be much larger from mitigation measures than from CAP options. Full implementation of the mitigation measures could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions from agriculture of 127 Mt CO2 equivalents. This is about a quarter of current GHG emissions from agriculture. Promoting mitigation measures, therefore, is more effective for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture, than influencing income and price subsidies within the CAP. On the global scale, CAP options hardly play a role in total GHG emissions from land use. Much more important are developments in global population, economic growth, policies and technological developments, as depicted in the various scenarios.

  9. Dissecting Future Aerosol Emissions. Warming Tendencies and Mitigation Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Streets, D.G. [Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL, 60439 (United States)

    2007-04-15

    Future global emissions of aerosols will play an important role in governing the nature and magnitude of future anthropogenic climate change. We present in this paper a number of future scenarios of emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) by world region, which we combine with sulfate (SO4) assessed in terms of the emissions of its precursor, SO2. We find that aerosol emissions from the household and industrial sectors are likely to decline along almost all future pathways. Transportation emissions, however, are subject to complex interacting forces that can lead to either increases or decreases. Biomass burning declines in many scenarios, but the Amazon rainforests remain vulnerable if unsustainable economic growth persists. East Asia is the key region for primary aerosols, and trends in China will have a major bearing on the direction and magnitude of releases of BC (expected reductions in the range of 640-1290 Gg), OC (reductions of 520-1900 Gg), and SO2 (ranging from an increase of 21 Tg to a reduction of 30 Tg). Analysis of joint BC, OC, and SO2 emission changes identifies a number of key world regions and economic sectors that could be effectively targeted for aerosol reductions.

  10. Influence of economic factors on future global emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.B.; Poehnell, T.G.; Miller, A.I.; Tamm, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    The climate change debate is really about economics, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change potential at a reasonable and acceptable cost for everyone. In this paper, we examine the major economic factors behind defining climate change policies that relate to reducing GHG emissions, and the value to be placed on CO 2 . We examine the impacts and the 'cost of carbon' based on the studies of GHG reduction strategies in the US and the European Union (EU). We show that a series of self-defeating assumptions have been used in the latest analyses regarding relative future energy and power costs, and hence future GHG emissions. We estimate: the 'natural value' of GHG emissions based on world economic factors, the value of electricity and energy based on world data, the cost advantage of using a given new technology, and the value of avoided GHG emissions in future global and national climate change projections. The use of electricity is shown to be key in aiding economic growth for the entire world. Using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000 climate change projections as a base, we reflect the impacts of differing energy prices on future global climate conditions and GHG reductions. We conduct a similar analysis for Canada using the latest 'Energy in Canada 2000' projections. We show how the use of advanced technology for the traditional production of electricity, and for hydrogen-based transportation fuels, can stabilize global emissions and assist in managing adverse climate change conditions without causing economic penalties. The method we develop is sufficiently general that it can be used for valuing the economic impact of the emission reductions for any technology. We estimate the embedded value and potential economic benefit of nuclear technology and electric contribution for both the world economy to 2100, and for the latest projections for Canada to 2020. (author)

  11. Evolving diesel common rail technology for future low emission standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoeppe, D.; Bercher, P.; Guerrassi, N.; Spadafora, P. [Delphi Diesel Systems, Paris (France)

    2005-07-01

    The Diesel fuel injection equipment will remain a key element for Diesel engine technology evolution. Achieving emission targets at competitive prices has been and will continue to be a major technical challenge to the engine manufacturer. Delphi is continously developing its Common Rail System and its components for fulfill future stricter emission legislation while simultaneously improving performance on noise, fuel consumption and power output. The outstanding and unique injector concept combined with innovative control strategies has largely contributed to the improvement of exhaust emission and performance, consumption and NVH over the lifetime of Diesel vehicles. Recently, Euro 4 common rail applications have been introduced on several applications by adding further capability such as multiple injection, small-injected quantity control and improved atomization. This papers will describe the latest Common Rail System developments that Delphi will introduce into the market to comply with future legislative emission targets. Further, a novel common rail injector will be presented, that uses a revolutionary, direct acting operating principle, where the nozzle is directly operated by a piezo actuator, without the use of a servo-hydraulic flow circuit. The superior performance of this injector concept will be shown, especially with regard to it's near square rate injection shape, minimum quantity capability as well as multiple injection performance. The direct acting operating principle allows rapid opening and closing of the injector, without compromising pilot quantity capability. The emission benefit obtained by such opening and closing behavior will be shown. Finally, based on the findings discussed, the papers will conclude on key features of future common rail systems. (orig.)

  12. Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, J.K; Camm, Frank; Mooz, W.E.; Wolf, K.A.; Bamezai, Anil; Connel, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. (author). 22 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  13. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  14. Electron emission and work function-Past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamamoto, Shigehiko

    2005-01-01

    The history of electron emission is reviewed from a standpoint of the work function and the applications. For years, in the field of thermionic emission, a great deal of efforts have been devoted to search for low work function materials with a high melting temperature, while the reduction of the local change in time of the work function rather than the work function itself has been the main issue of field emission investigations. High brightness and long life are the central targets of the emission material investigations for the scientific instrument application, while high current density and low power consumption are the guiding principles for the display application. In both fields, field emission has recently become dominant in research and development. In all above cases, the main issue in the future research works will be to analyze the work function in atomic level and thereby to understand the mechanism of the work function reduction by atom adsorption, the change in time of the local work function leading to the current fluctuation, and the relationship between microscopic and macroscopic work functions. Our attempt is discussed, where the work function in atomic level is measured by utilizing the STM technique and it is made clear how far the work function in atomic level extends its influence over the neighboring sites. As a result, a simple relationship is established between microscopic and macroscopic work functions

  15. Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natarajan, Sukumar; Levermore, Geoffrey J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research. (author)

  16. Present and future emissions of HAPs from crematories in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yifeng; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Xiong, Chengcheng; Pan, Tao; Nie, Lei; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Jing; Wang, Wei; Gao, Jiajia; Zhu, Chuanyong; Wang, Kun

    2016-01-01

    China is the most populous country in the world. The amount of death population has reached 9.65 million and 49.5% of human corpses are cremated by about 1700 crematories spread throughout the country in 2012, leading to considerable discharge of various hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) into the atmosphere and great concerns on regional air quality and health risks for surrounding residents. By using the practicable or best available emission factors, for the first time, a multiple-year emission inventory of typical hazardous air pollutants discharged from crematories in the Chinese mainland, has been established for the historical period of 1990-2012, and the future trends of HAPs emissions until 2030 are forecasted based on three scenarios analysis. Our results show that the total emissions have gradually increased to 906 t of NOX, 443 t of SO2, 2713 t of CO, 477.7 t of PM, 377 t of HCl, 36 t of H2S, 25 t of NH3, 62 t of NMVOCs, 592 kg of Hg, 48 kg of Pb, 14 kg of Cd, 53 kg of As, 40 kg of Cr, 37 kg of Cu, 51 kg of Ni, and 96 g of PCDD/Fs as TEQ (toxic equivalent quantity) by the year 2012. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, various HAPs emitted from cremators would continuously increase with an average growth rate of 3% till to 2030; whereas the emissions will peak at around 2015 and then decline gradually with varied speed under the two improved control scenarios. To mitigate the associated air pollution and health risks caused by crematories, it is of great necessary for implementing more strict emission standards, applying combustion optimization and requiring installation of best available flue gas purification system, as well as powerful supervision for sound operation of crematories.

  17. Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

    2006-01-01

    This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

  18. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  19. Future needs for ship emission abatement and technical measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa ANTES

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The International Maritime Organization (IMO has revised air pollution regulations in MARPOL Annex VI. In 2012 Emission Control Areas (ECA will limit fuel sulphur content to 1% and from 2015 to 0.1%. NOx emissions based on ships engine speed are also reduced for new vessels (2012 & 2016. Facing this legislation, ship owners have the alternative either to operate ships with costly low-sulphur fuels, or to keep using HFO but together with a gas cleaning equipment at the ship stack in order to reduce the rejected amount of SO2 gas in the atmosphere. To achieve this requirement, research and development organizations came out with proposing a solution that uses a device for cleaning exhaust gas of marine diesel engines. The paper presents a short communication about the DEECON project, which aim is to create a novel on-board after-treatment unit more advanced than any currently available. Each sub-unit of the system will be optimized to remove a specific primary pollutant. In particular, the technology within the DEECON system is based on novel or improved abatement techniques for reducing SOx, NOx, Particulate Matter (PM, CO and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC. Some of these technologies are completely new for the maritime sector and they will represent a breakthrough in the reduction of the atmospheric emissions of ships, moving forward the performance of exhaust gas cleaning systems and fostering and anticipating the adoption of future and tighter regulatory requirements. In addition, an after-treatment strategy enables the possible adoption of alternative fuels, which often have their own emissions characteristics.

  20. Radiative forcing from particle emissions by future supersonic aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pitari

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this work we focus on the direct radiative forcing (RF of black carbon (BC and sulphuric acid particles emitted by future supersonic aircraft, as well as on the ozone RF due to changes produced by emissions of both gas species (NOx, H2O and aerosol particles capable of affecting stratospheric ozone chemistry. Heterogeneous chemical reactions on the surface of sulphuric acid stratospheric particles (SSA-SAD are the main link between ozone chemistry and supersonic aircraft emissions of sulphur precursors (SO2 and particles (H2O–H2SO4. Photochemical O3 changes are compared from four independent 3-D atmosphere-chemistry models (ACMs, using as input the perturbation of SSA-SAD calculated in the University of L'Aquila model, which includes on-line a microphysics code for aerosol formation and growth. The ACMs in this study use aircraft emission scenarios for the year 2050 developed by AIRBUS as a part of the EU project SCENIC, assessing options for fleet size, engine technology (NOx emission index, Mach number, range and cruising altitude. From our baseline modeling simulation, the impact of supersonic aircraft on sulphuric acid aerosol and BC mass burdens is 53 and 1.5 μg/m2, respectively, with a direct RF of −11.4 and 4.6 mW/m2 (net RF=−6.8 mW/m2. This paper discusses the similarities and differences amongst the participating models in terms of changes to O3 precursors due to aircraft emissions (NOx, HOx,Clx,Brx and the stratospheric ozone sensitivity to them. In the baseline case, the calculated global ozone change is −0.4 ±0.3 DU, with a net radiative forcing (IR+UV of −2.5± 2 mW/m2. The fraction of this O3-RF attributable to SSA-SAD changes is, however, highly variable among the models, depending on the NOx removal

  1. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use: Recent performance and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jefferson, Michael

    1998-12-01

    This publication gives an overview and discusses carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use worldwide. Main themes discussed in this connection cover recent performance and future prospects. Some proposals on the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions are given

  2. Current and future nitrous oxide emissions from African agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hickman, J.E.; Havlikova, M.; Kroeze, C.; Palm, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Most emission estimates of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) from African agriculture at a continental scale are based on emission factors, such as those developed by the IPCC Guidelines. Here we present estimates from Africa from the EDGAR database, which is derived from the IPCC emission

  3. Positron emission tomography now and in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaalburg, W.

    1987-01-01

    A survey is given of positron emission tomography used in nuclear medicine. The production of positron emitting radionuclides is discussed. The development of positron detectors is described. The application of positron emission tomography in cardiology, oncology and neurology is treated. The authors conclude that PET is a unique method to examine metabolic processes, although the method is still in its infancy. 7 refs.; 1 table

  4. Neutron emissivity profile camera diagnostics considering present and future tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsberg, S.

    2001-12-01

    This thesis describes the neutron profile camera situated at JET. The profile camera is one of the most important neutron emission diagnostic devices operating at JET. It gives useful information of the total neutron yield rate but also about the neutron emissivity distribution. Data analysis was performed in order to compare three different calibration methods. The data was collected from the deuterium campaign, C4, in the beginning of 2001. The thesis also includes a section about the implication of a neutron profile camera for ITER, where the issue regarding interface difficulties is in focus. The ITER JCT (Joint Central Team) proposal of a neutron camera for ITER is studied in some detail

  5. Neutron emissivity profile camera diagnostics considering present and future tokamaks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsberg, S. [EURATOM-VR Association, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2001-12-01

    This thesis describes the neutron profile camera situated at JET. The profile camera is one of the most important neutron emission diagnostic devices operating at JET. It gives useful information of the total neutron yield rate but also about the neutron emissivity distribution. Data analysis was performed in order to compare three different calibration methods. The data was collected from the deuterium campaign, C4, in the beginning of 2001. The thesis also includes a section about the implication of a neutron profile camera for ITER, where the issue regarding interface difficulties is in focus. The ITER JCT (Joint Central Team) proposal of a neutron camera for ITER is studied in some detail.

  6. Simulation of secondary emission calorimeter for future colliders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetkin, E. A.; Yetkin, T.; Ozok, F.; Iren, E.; Erduran, M. N.

    2018-03-01

    We present updated results from a simulation study of a conceptual sampling electromagnetic calorimeter based on secondary electron emission process. We implemented the secondary electron emission process in Geant4 as a user physics list and produced the energy spectrum and yield of secondary electrons. The energy resolution of the SEE calorimeter was σ/E = (41%) GeV1/2/√E and the response linearity to electromagnetic showers was to within 1.5%. The simulation results were also compared with a traditional scintillator calorimeter.

  7. Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalton, Michael; O'Neill, Brian; Prskawetz, Alexia; Jiang Leiwen; Pitkin, John

    2008-01-01

    Changes in the age composition of U.S. households over the next several decades could affect energy use and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, the most important greenhouse gas. This article incorporates population age structure into an energy-economic growth model with multiple dynasties of heterogeneous households. The model is used to estimate and compare effects of population aging and technical change on baseline paths of U.S. energy use, and CO 2 emissions. Results show that population aging reduces long-term emissions, by almost 40% in a low population scenario, and effects of aging on emissions can be as large, or larger than, effects of technical change in some cases. These results are derived under standard assumptions and functional forms that are used in economic growth models. The model also assumes a closed economy, substitution elasticities that are fixed, and identical across age groups, and patterns of labor supply that vary by age group, but are fixed over time

  8. Control of mercury emissions: policies, technologies, and future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Rhee, Seung-Whee

    2015-01-01

    Seung-Whee Rhee Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon, Republic of Korea Abstract: Owing to the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Global Mercury Partnership, policies and regulations on mercury management in advanced countries were intensified by a mercury phaseout program in the mercury control strategy. In developing countries, the legislative or regulatory frameworks on mercury emissions are not established specifically, but mercury management is designed...

  9. Significance of Future Biogenic and Fire Emissions on Regional Aerosol Burden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, A.; Tai, A. P. K.; Val Martin, M.

    2017-12-01

    Land-use and land cover changes have been found to substantially affect atmospheric aerosols and climate worldwide1,2, but the complex mechanisms and pathways involved in the interactions between terrestrial processes and aerosols are not well understood. Here we use a global coupled aerosol chemistry-climate-land model (CESM with CAM5 using Modal Aerosol Module 3 and CLM4.5 in Satellite Phenology mode) to investigate how aerosols respond to future climate and land-use changes, and in turn, affects cloud cover and other hydrometeorological variables in the long term. Time-sliced simulations are conducted for a base year (2000) as a base case; then three future projected scenarios for year 2050 driven by land-use and climate projections following the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.53 are conducted. The first scenario considers future projected biogenic emissions, allowing us to investigate the effect of increased plant activity and enhanced biogenic emissions due to future land-use and climate on aerosol burden. The second scenario considers future biomass burning emissions, allowing us to investigate the effect of increased biomass burning emissions due to future land-use and climate on aerosol burden. The third scenario combines the projected changes in the two emissions. We find that both biogenic and biomass burning emissions contribute significantly to local aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The contribution from biogenic emissions to local aerosol burden is smaller in magnitude (10% to 20%), but the effects are ubiquitous in many places globally. Meanwhile, the contribution from biomass burning emissions can be much higher in magnitude (63%)4, but concentrated in heavily burned regions and occurs only during burning season. Effects of both emissions are not additive since a larger flux of emissions causes greater deposition. The resulting further impacts of land-use change on regional hydrometeorology are also explored

  10. Abatement of atmospheric emissions in North America: Progress to date and promise for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, E.C.; Erbes, R.E.; Grott, J.K.

    1990-01-01

    Much progress has been made in acidic rain abatement in North America. This progress is examined with a focus on man-made emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides that contribute to acidic deposition. A review of US historical trends of SO 2 and nitrogen oxides emissions since 1900 and projections of future emissions through the end of this century shoe emissions of SO 2 decreasing from a peak in 1970 of 29 Tg/yr to about 26 Tg/yr, but nitrogen oxides emissions continuing an upward trend to about 25 Tg/yr. In Canada, SO 2 , NO and NO 2 emissions are less than 20% of those in the US, and the trends are similar, with SO 2 showing future decreases and NO and NO 2 continuing to increase. Future industry in North America is expected to emit much lower levels of SO 2 , NO, and NO 2 . Technology is also available to limit nitrogen oxides emissions from future motor vehicles. Recent acidic deposition legislation in the US Congress to reduce electric utility and industrial emissions of SO 2 by 9 to 13 Tg/yr is reviewed. The estimates of the cost to implement the proposals range from $2 billion to $23 billion over a 5-year period. Retrofitting existing utility and industrial boilers for maximum SO 2 , NO, and NO 2 reduction carries the highest price tag. Several environmental policy options are explored for preventing emission increases and also promoting decreases in future emissions of SO 2 , NO, and NO 2 in North America. Focus on nitrogen oxides emissions may be critical because population growth could cause significant increases in NO and NO 2 from motor vehicle use

  11. The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stankeviciute, Loreta; Kitous, Alban; Criqui, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    The study aims to analyze the sectoral marginal abatements cost curves for a number of EU countries as well as to examine the efficiency aspects and the economic impacts for the major sectors of the ETS under different carbon market configurations in 2010 and 2020. To produce a consistent and realistic assessment, we employ sources such as GHG National Inventories, NAPs and POLES world energy model to constitute the sectoral base year and 2010, 2020 emission levels in different countries and regions. We then use the market analysis tool ASPEN, which enables to derive supply and demand from sectoral MACCs produced with the POLES model, and to evaluate the economic impacts on the carbon market participants. The paper shows that, in compliance with the Kyoto targets, the benefits of an enlarged carbon market are significant, since more than 50% of the abatement in the short term have to be achieved in ETS sectors, which may indeed use CDM or JI credits. A second major conclusion is that in 2020 the new flexibility margins provided by the adjustment of investments in new capacities compensate for the increase in pressure towards stronger emission reductions. This reduces the relative importance of the enlarged carbon market

  12. Past, Present, and Future Anthropogenic Emissions over Asia: a Regional Air Quality Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jung-Hun; Jung, Bujeon; Choi, Ki-Chul; Seo, Ji-Hyun; Kim, Tae Hyung; Park, Rokjin J.; Youn, Daeok; Jeong, Jaein; Moon, Byung-Kwon; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2010-05-01

    Climate change will also affect future regional air quality which has potential human health, ecosystem, and economic implications. To analyze the impacts of climate change on Asian air quality, the NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research, Korea) integrated modeling framework was developed based on global-to-regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models. In this study, we developed emission inventories for the modeling framework for 1980~2100 with an emphasis on Asia emissions. Two emission processing systems which have functions of emission projection, spatial/temporal allocation, and chemical speciation have been also developed in support of atmospheric chemistry models including GEOS-Chem and Models-3/CMAQ. Asia-based emission estimates, projection factors, temporal allocation parameters were combined to improve regional modeling capability of past, present and future air quality over Asia. The global CO emissions show a 23% decrease from the years 1980 to 2000. For the future CO (from year 2000 to 2100), the A2 scenario shows a 95% increase due to the B40 (Residential-Biofuel) sector of Western Africa, Eastern Africa and East Asia and the F51 (Transport Road-Fossil fuel) sector of Middle East, USA and South Asia. The B1 scenario, however, shows a 79% decrease of emissions due to B40 and F51 sectors of East Asia, South Asia and USA for the same period. In many cases, Asian emissions play important roles for global emission increase or decrease depending on the IPCC scenarios considered. The regional ozone forming potential will be changed due to different VOC/NOx emission ratio changes in the future. More similarities and differences of Asian emission characteristics, in comparison with its global counterpart, are investigated.

  13. Positron Emission Tomography: state of the art and future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pizzichemi, M.

    2016-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) plays a fundamental role in medical imaging, with a wide range of applications covering, among the others, oncology, neurology and cardiology. PET has undergone a steady technological evolution since its introduction in mid 20th century, from the development of 3D PET in the late 1980s, to the invention of PET/CT in the 1990s and more recently with the introduction of PET/MR scanners. The current research topics aiming to develop the next generation of PET scanners are summarized in this paper, focusing on the efforts to increase the sensitivity of the detectors, as long as improving their timing, spatial and energy resolutions, with the final goal of reducing the amount of radioactive dose received by the patients and the duration of the exams while improving at the same time the detectability of lesions.

  14. Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galford, Gillian L; Melillo, Jerry M; Kicklighter, David W; Cronin, Timothy W; Cerri, Carlos E P; Mustard, John F; Cerri, Carlos C

    2010-11-16

    The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

  15. Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation of Canadian oil sands to future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarnoczi, Tyler

    2013-01-01

    Oil sands transportation diversification is important for preventing discounted crude pricing. Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil transportation are linearly-scale and fail to account for project specific details. This research sets out to develop a detailed LCA model to compare the energy inputs and GHG emissions of pipeline and rail transportation for oil sands products. The model is applied to several proposed oils sands transportation routes that may serve as future markets. Comparison between transportation projects suggest that energy inputs and GHG emissions show a high degree of variation. For both rail and pipeline transportation, the distance over which the product is transported has a large impact on total emissions. The regional electricity grid and pump efficiency have the largest impact on pipeline emissions, while train engine efficiency and bitumen blending ratios have the largest impact on rail transportation emissions. LCA-based GHG regulations should refine models to account for the range of product pathways and focus efforts on cost-effective emission reductions. As the climate-change impacts of new oil sands transportation projects are considered, GHG emission boundaries should be defined according to operation control. -- Highlights: •A life cycle model is developed to compare transportation of oil sands products. •The model is applied to several potential future oil sands markets. •Energy inputs and GHG emissions are compared. •Model inputs are explored using sensitivity analysis. •Policy recommendations are provided

  16. Gathering pipeline methane emissions in Fayetteville shale pipelines and scoping guidelines for future pipeline measurement campaigns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Zimmerle

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Gathering pipelines, which transport gas from well pads to downstream processing, are a sector of the natural gas supply chain for which little measured methane emissions data are available. This study performed leak detection and measurement on 96 km of gathering pipeline and the associated 56 pigging facilities and 39 block valves. The study found one underground leak accounting for 83% (4.0 kg CH4/hr of total measured emissions. Methane emissions for the 4684 km of gathering pipeline in the study area were estimated at 402 kg CH4/hr [95 to 1065 kg CH4/hr, 95% CI], or 1% [0.2% to 2.6%] of all methane emissions measured during a prior aircraft study of the same area. Emissions estimated by this study fall within the uncertainty range of emissions estimated using emission factors from EPA’s 2015 Greenhouse Inventory and study activity estimates. While EPA’s current inventory is based upon emission factors from distribution mains measured in the 1990s, this study indicates that using emission factors from more recent distribution studies could significantly underestimate emissions from gathering pipelines. To guide broader studies of pipeline emissions, we also estimate the fraction of the pipeline length within a basin that must be measured to constrain uncertainty of pipeline emissions estimates to within 1% of total basin emissions. The study provides both substantial insight into the mix of emission sources and guidance for future gathering pipeline studies, but since measurements were made in a single basin, the results are not sufficiently representative to provide methane emission factors at the regional or national level.

  17. Current status and future prospect of positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Eiichi

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes present and future situation of both the hardware and the software for PET laying emphasis on technical development since 1990. In the present, some institutes still use 2D-PET, however, most technical researches of PET are aiming at 3D-PET, and several difficulties, such as absorption correction, scattering correction, correction of accidental simultaneous count, have been resolved. The difficulties of data correction and the limitation of high counting rate are largely caused by the properties of the detective element BGO. If we can put LSO to practical use, time resolution and energy resolution would be significantly improved, and moreover, it would also be expected to simplify data correction mentioned above and to improve the accuracy. If the removal-type slice septa become useless, the mechanical correction would be easy, and the diameter of detector would be smaller and it will be profitable for the cost. 3D-PET without the slice septa would be ideal in the future. (K.H.). 54 refs

  18. The Natural Gas Vehicle Challenge 1992: Exhaust emissions testing and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimkus, W. A.; Larsen, R. P.; Zammit, M. G.; Davies, J. G.; Salmon, G. S.; Bruetsch, R. I.

    The Natural Gas Vehicle (NGV) Challenge '92, was organized by Argonne National Laboratory. The main sponsors were the U.S. Department of Energy the Energy, Mines, and Resources -- Canada, and the Society of Automotive Engineers. It resulted in 20 varied approaches to the conversion of a gasoline-fueled, spark-ignited, internal combustion engine to dedicated natural gas use. Starting with a GMC Sierra 2500 pickup truck donated by General Motors, teams of college and university student engineers worked to optimize Chevrolet V-8 engines operating on natural gas for improved emissions, fuel economy, performance, and advanced design features. This paper focuses on the results of the emission event, and compares engine mechanical configurations, engine management systems, catalyst configurations and locations, and approaches to fuel control and the relationship of these parameters to engine-out and tailpipe emissions of regulated exhaust constituents. Nine of the student modified trucks passed the current levels of exhaust emission standards, and some exceeded the strictest future emissions standards envisioned by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Factors contributing to good emissions control using natural gas are summarized, and observations concerning necessary components of a successful emissions control strategy are presented.

  19. The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

  20. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  1. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth S; Kim, Patrick S; Koplitz, Shannon N; Jacob, Daniel J; Gaveau, David L A; Mickley, Loretta J; Margono, Belinda A; Myers, Samuel S

    2015-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010–2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations

  2. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

    2015-05-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and

  3. Impact of reformulated gasoline on emissions from current and future vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colucci, J.M.; Benson, J.D.

    1993-01-01

    Gasolines reformulated specifically for reducing vehicle emissions will result in the most significant changes in the U.S. refining industry since the advent of unleaded gasoline. This paper will review the results from the Auto/Oil Air Quality Improvement Research Program showing the beneficial effects on vehicle emissions of individually decreasing gasoline aromatic, olefin and sulfur contents, 90% distillation temperature, and Reid vapor pressure, and of adding oxygenates. The paper discusses the importance of reformulated gasolines for reducing emissions from existing vehicles by complying with requirements in the Clean Air Act and California's Low Emission Vehicle/Clean Fuels Program. It will show the importance of controlling Vehicle/Clean Fuels Program. It will show the importance of controlling specific aromatic and olefin compounds in gasoline, and it will discuss how automotive manufacturers will utilize reformulated gasolines to meet future stringent vehicle emission standards

  4. [Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian-gong; Zhu, Qiu-an; Shen, Yan; Yang, Yan-zheng; Luo, Yun-peng; Peng, Chang-hui

    2015-11-01

    Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

  5. Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

    2017-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

  6. Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

    2013-10-01

    Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

  7. Wind farms on undegraded peatlands are unlikely to reduce future carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Jo; Nayak, Dali Rani; Smith, Pete

    2014-01-01

    Onshore wind energy is a key component of the renewable energies used by governments to reduce carbon emissions from electricity production, but will carbon emissions be reduced when wind farms are located on carbon-rich peatands? Wind farms are often located in uplands because most are of low agricultural value, are distant from residential areas, and are windy. Many UK uplands are peatlands, with layers of accumulated peat that represent a large stock of soil carbon. When peatlands are drained for construction there is a higher risk of net carbon loss than for mineral soils. Previous work suggests that wind farms sited on peatlands can reduce net carbon emissions if strictly managed for maximum retention of carbon. Here we show that, whereas in 2010, most sites had potential to provide net carbon savings, by 2040 most sites will not reduce carbon emissions even with careful management. This is due to projected changes in the proportion of fossil fuels used to generate electricity. The results suggest future policy should avoid constructing wind farms on undegraded peatlands unless drainage of peat is minimal and the volume excavated in foundations can be significantly reduced compared to energy output. - Highlights: • Future wind farms located on undegraded peats will not reduce carbon emissions. • This is due to projected changes in fossil fuels used to generate electricity. • Future policy should avoid constructing wind farms on undegraded peats

  8. The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B.; Allwood, Julian M.

    2017-05-01

    Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

  9. Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Christine; Fofrich, Robert; Davis, Steven J.

    2017-04-01

    With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid-2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under-development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non-fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal-fired plants could therefore either "strand" fossil energy assets (i.e., force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by "locking-out" new, low-carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial era.

  10. Future changes in biogenic isoprene emissions: how might they affect regional and global atmospheric chemistry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christine Wiedinmyer; Xuexi Tie; Alex Guenther; Ron Neilson; Claire. Granier

    2006-01-01

    Isoprene is emitted from vegetation to the atmosphere in significant quantities, and it plays an important role in the reactions that control tropospheric oxidant concentrations. As future climatic and land-cover changes occur, the spatial and temporal variations, as well as the magnitude of these biogenic isoprene emissions, are expected to change. This paper presents...

  11. Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2018-02-01

    Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

  12. Direct estimation of diffuse gaseous emissions from coal fires: current methods and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engle, Mark A.; Olea, Ricardo A.; O'Keefe, Jennifer M. K.; Hower, James C.; Geboy, Nicholas J.

    2013-01-01

    Coal fires occur in nature spontaneously, contribute to increases in greenhouse gases, and emit atmospheric toxicants. Increasing interest in quantifying coal fire emissions has resulted in the adaptation and development of specialized approaches and adoption of numerical modeling techniques. Overview of these methods for direct estimation of diffuse gas emissions from coal fires is presented in this paper. Here we take advantage of stochastic Gaussian simulation to interpolate CO2 fluxes measured using a dynamic closed chamber at the Ruth Mullins coal fire in Perry County, Kentucky. This approach allows for preparing a map of diffuse gas emissions, one of the two primary ways that gases emanate from coal fires, and establishing the reliability of the study both locally and for the entire fire. Future research directions include continuous and automated sampling to improve quantification of gaseous coal fire emissions.

  13. Rolling towards a cleaner future: the development of Canadian locomotive emissions regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-12-01

    In 2006, the Government of Canada published a notice of intent that it would develop regulations aimed at reducing anthropogenic criteria air contaminants and greenhouse gas emissions. The Government now intends to develop railway emissions regulations for criteria air contaminants under the Railway Safety Act. The Railway Safety Act not only provides the legislative basis for developing regulations governing railways, it also gives the authority for developing the rules governing federally regulated railroads to the Minister of Transport. For the future, Transport Canada will be responsible for developing regulations governing the rail sector. The transportation sector is a substantial emitter of criteria air contaminants, so rail transportation is a key element of the current work. This paper seeks to give a framework for consultations with stakeholders and facilitate dialogue. It collects feedback from stakeholders on the design of a Canadian regulatory regime for locomotive-generated criteria air contaminant emissions. Canadian railways have managed locomotive air contaminant emissions since 1995.

  14. Managing traffic induced emissions in the future Beirut Central Business District

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Fadel, Mutasem; Sbayti, Hayssam; Kayssi, Isam; Baaj, Hadi

    2003-01-01

    The increased urbanization of the Greater Beirut Area (GBA) over the past years has led severe traffic congestion due to a deficient transportation system and significant reliance on private vehicles as the primary passenger transport mode. As a result, air quality is continuously deteriorating particularly in densely populated areas. Beirut Central District (BCD), the center of economic growth in the GBA, is expected to witness adverse air quality impacts in the medium and long-term future. Hence, there is a growing need to couple the efficiency of transport activities with acceptable air quality since both factors affect the welfare of residents. The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of selected traffic management alternatives and emission reduction strategies on air quality in the BCD area. Four traffic alternatives and three emission reduction strategies were analyzed for their effect on emission factors, total emissions and exposure levels

  15. Estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions of the world's cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. - Highlights: • A tool for estimation of energy related emissions for urban areas is developed. • Heating degree days and urbanized area per capita are driving variables for urban energy consumption. • Global transition to EVs can only mitigate transportation emissions if GHG intensity of electricity grid is reduced. • Density decline of urban areas can lead to exponential increase of energy related emissions. • Climate change scenarios can slightly reduce the growth of energy related emissions increase by 2050. - A tool for estimation of global impact of urban systems on energy related emissions was developed that can simulate the impact of future scenarios (climate change, urban design etc)

  16. A probabilistic approach to examine the impacts of mitigation policies on future global PM emissions from on-road vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

    2012-12-01

    There is deficiency in the determination of emission reduction potential in the future, especially with consideration of uncertainty. Mitigation measures for some economic sectors have been proposed, but few studies provide an evaluation of the amount of PM emission reduction that can be obtained in future years by different emission reduction strategies. We attribute the absence of helpful mitigation strategy analysis to limitations in the technical detail of future emission scenarios, which result in the inability to relate technological or regulatory intervention to emission changes. The purpose of this work is to provide a better understanding of the potential benefits of mitigation policies in addressing global and regional emissions. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach to explore the impacts of retrofit and scrappage on global PM emissions from on-road vehicles in the coming decades. This approach includes scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend, is used to estimate future emissions and make policy evaluations. Three basic questions will be answered in this work: (1) what contribution can these two programs make to improve global emissions in the future? (2) in which regions are such programs most and least effective in reducing emissions and what features of the vehicle fleet cause these results? (3) what is the level of confidence in the projected emission reductions, given uncertain parameters in describing the dynamic vehicle fleet?

  17. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  18. Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofrich, R.; Shearer, C.; Davis, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions due to its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves. In this study, we assess existing and proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future energy production and emissions in the country. In 2016, India had 369 coal-fired power plants under development totaling 243 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity. These coal-fired power plants would increase India's coal-fired generating capacity by 123% and would exceed India's projected electricity demand. Therefore, India's current proposals for new coal-fired power plants would be forced to retire early or operate at very low capacity factors and/or would prevent India from meeting its goal of producing at least 40% of its power from renewable sources by 2030. In addition, future emissions from proposed coal-fired power plants would exceed India's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% - 35% by 2030.

  19. Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Schu, Kathryn; Sue Wing, Ian; Calvin, Katherine

    2012-01-01

    What are the drivers of future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions growth and how would the availability of key energy supply technologies change their relative importance? In this paper, we apply a novel index number decomposition technique to the results of a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to quantify the influence of five factors on the growth of future carbon emissions: (1) growth in global economic activity; (2) shifts in the regional composition of gross world product; (3) shifts in the sectoral composition of regions' GDP; (4) changes in sectors' energy–output ratios; and (5) changes in the CO 2 intensity of energy sources. We elucidate how the relative importance of these factors changes in response to the imposition of a global carbon tax and alternative assumptions about the future availability of key energy supply technologies. Rising global economic activity and shifts in regional composition put upward pressure on emissions while changes in energy and emission intensity and the sectoral output mix have attenuating effects. A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix, with the most pronounced impacts on China, India, and Russia. Limited availability of carbon capture and storage, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation all lead to upward shifts in the long-run marginal abatement cost curve, causing some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate. - Highlights: ► Index number decomposition is used to quantify the influence of five factors. ► The relative importance of these factors in response to alternative assumptions is measured. ► A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix. ► Limited technology availability mean some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate.

  20. Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garg, A. [Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International India, 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi - 110057 (India); Shukla, P.R. [Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India); Ghosh, D. [Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (United States); Kapshe, M.; Rajesh, N. [Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India)

    2003-07-01

    This paper estimates the future greenhouse gas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions for India under various scenarios. The reference scenario assumes continuation of the current official policies of the Indian government and forecasts of macro-economic, demographic and energy sector indicators. Other scenarios analyzed are the economic growth scenarios (high and low), carbon mitigation scenario, sulfur mitigation scenario and frozen (development) scenario. The main insight is that GHG and local pollutant emissions from India, although connected, do not move in synchronization in future and have a disjoint under various scenarios. GHG emissions continue to rise while local pollutant emissions decrease after some years. GHG emission mitigation therefore would have to be pursued for its own sake in India. National energy security concerns also favor this conclusion since coal is the abundant national resource while most of the natural gas has to be imported. The analysis of contributing factors to this disjoint indicates that sulfur reduction in petroleum oil products and penetration of flue gas desulfurisation technologies are the two main contributors for sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation. The reduction in particulate emissions is mainly due to enforcing electro-static precipitator efficiency norms in industrial units, with cleaner fuels and vehicles also contributing substantially. These policy trends are already visible in India. Another insight is that high economic growth is better than lower growth to mitigate local pollution as lack of investible resources limits investments in cleaner environmental measures. Our analysis also validates the environmental Kuznets' curve for India as SO2 emissions peak around per capita GDP of US$ 5,300-5,400 (PPP basis) under various economic growth scenarios.

  1. The future of emissions trading in light of the acid rain experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, B.J.; Rico, R.

    1995-01-01

    The idea of emissions trading was developed more than two decades ago by environmental economists eager to provide new ideas for how to improve the efficiency of environmental protection. However, early emissions trading efforts were built on the historical open-quotes command and controlclose quotes infrastructure which has dominated U.S. environmental protection until today. The open-quotes command and controlclose quotes model initially had advantages that were of a very pragmatic character: it assured large pollution reductions in a time when large, cheap reductions were available and necessary; and it did not require a sophisticated government infrastructure. Within the last five years, large-scale emission trading programs have been successfully designed and started that are fundamentally different from the earlier efforts, creating a new paradigm for environmental control just when our understanding of environmental problems is changing as well. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the largest national-scale program--the Acid Rain Program--and from that experience, forecast when emission trading programs may be headed based on our understanding of the factors currently influencing environmental management. The first section of this paper will briefly review the history of emissions trading programs, followed by a summary of the features of the Acid Rain Program, highlighting those features that distinguish it from previous efforts. The last section addresses the opportunities for emissions trading (and its probable future directions)

  2. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

  3. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  4. Biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from the Eurasian taiga: current knowledge and future directions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rinne, J. (Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)); Baeck, J. (Dept. of Forest Ecology, Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)); Hakola, H. (Finnish Meteorological Institute, Air Quality Research, Helsinki (Finland))

    2009-07-01

    n this paper, the research conducted on the emissions of the biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from the European boreal zone, or taiga, is reviewed. We highlight the main findings and the key gaps in our knowledge. Ecosystem scale BVOC emissions from the Eurasian taiga are observed to be relatively low as compared with those from some forest ecosystems in warmer climates. One of the distinctive features of the Eurasian taiga is the predominance of monoterpene emitting coniferous trees. Recent research indicates that in addition to evaporation from storage structures, part of the monoterpene emission of conifers originates directly from synthesis. Monoterpene emission from boreal deciduous trees originates mainly directly from synthesis. The boreal trees exhibit distinct intra-species variation in the monoterpene mixtures they emit. Important sources of isoprene in the Eurasian taiga include Norway spruce, open wetland ecosystems and some non-dominant woody species, such as European aspen and willows. Many boreal tree species also emit non-terpenoid compounds and highly reactive sesquiterpenes. The future challenges in the research on BVOC emissions from the Eurasian taiga include (i) quantification and understanding the non-terpenoid VOC emissions from the taiga ecosystems, (ii) bringing ecosystems in the eastern Eurasian taiga into the sphere of BVOC emission studies, (iii) establishing long-term ecosystem flux studies combined with plant physiological measurements, and (iv) integrating knowledge and research skills on BVOC synthesis, storages and emissions, land cover changes and atmospheric processes in different spatial and temporal scales in order to better understand the impact of biosphere on atmospheric chemistry and composition in changing climate. (orig.)

  5. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

    2013-12-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

  6. Future forecast for life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of LNG and city gas 13A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamura, Tomohito; Furukawa, Michinobu; Ishitani, Hisashi

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the most up-to-date data available on total greenhouse-gas emissions of a LNG fuel supply chain and life-cycle of city gas 13A based on surveys of the LNG projects delivering to Japan, which should provide useful basic-data for conducting life-cycle analyses of other product systems as well as future alternative energy systems, because of highly reliable data qualified in terms of its source and representativeness. In addition, the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of LNG and city-gas 13A in 2010 were also predicted, taking into account not only the improvement of technologies, but also the change of composition of LNG projects. As a result of this analysis, the total amount of greenhouse-gas emissions of the whole city-gas 13A chain at present was calculated to be 61.91 g-CO 2 /MJ, and the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of LNG and city-gas 13A in 2010 could be expected to decrease by about 1.1% of the current emissions

  7. Effect of Shipping Emissions on Present and Future Atmospheric Composition Over the Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakis, N.; Raut, J. C.; Law, K.; Marelle, L.; Thomas, J. L.; Onishi, T.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is undergoing unprecedented changes as a result of rapid warming and socio-economic drivers. Even though the region is a receptor for anthropogenic pollution from the highly populated mid-latitudes, there are also local sources of pollution, such as shipping, that are already perturbing atmospheric composition. The Barents Sea, located off the northern coasts of Norway and Russia, has year-round shipping traffic and is likely to grow in a warming Arctic because of the economic benefits related to the opening up of the North-East passage placing it in a strategic position for the transport of goods between Europe and Asia. An increase in the marine traffic has already been observed over the past years in this region, resulting in increased emissions of pollutants. In this work, we investigate the impact of the shipping emissions in the Barents Sea on atmospheric composition for the summer period (July/August) with high traffic using the regional chemistry-aerosol transport model WRF-Chem run at high resolution over the region. We quantify the effects of shipping pollution on aerosol concentrations, such as black carbon, sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) as well as deposition of potentially important nutrients (NO3-, SO42-). The model is run using an analytical chemical mechanism for gas phase and aerosols (SAPRC99 coupled with VBS and MOSAIC) for present-day (2012) and future (2050) conditions with ECLIPSE anthropogenic emissions and Winther et al. (2014) shipping emissions. Present-day simulations are evaluated against available data. We examine different future growth scenarios taking into account current and proposed ship operation regulations, such as CLE (current legislation) and HGS (high growth scenario), to investigate possible future changes in surface concentrations, tropospheric burdens and deposition fluxes. Potential chemistry-climate feedbacks are also examined such as those related to aerosol

  8. The strictest energy requirements in the world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Erik Hagelskjær; Jensen, Jens Stissing

    2013-01-01

    50 years of progressively strengthened energy requirements in the Danish building code appear to be a success, as the energy consumption has remained constant despite an increase in the total area in requirement of heating. This article however argues that the building code mechanism is heavily...... influenced by path dependent regime structuration processes, and that the mechanism constitutes a barrier to more radical developments within low energy housing. Few and poorly organized frontrunner activities within low energy housing have accordingly taken place in a Danish context during the past decades....... Finally it is proposed that the current development within the energy system provides opportunities for cultivating an improved transitional awareness and for carrying out experimental activities that may challenge the path dependencies of prevailing regime structuration processes....

  9. Current and future trends in global landfill gas generation and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meadows, M.; Franklin, C.; Campbell, D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper assesses the magnitude and distribution of current and future methane generation and emissions from landfill on a world-wide basis. It also estimates the current and future global potential for energy recovery from landfill methane. The mass of methane emitted from land disposal of wastes in any country depends on the waste management strategy of that country. In turn, the waste management strategy of a country depends on its population size, relative proportion living in rural or urban regions and the economic development of the country. We estimate by 2010 there will be a large increase in global methane emissions from solid wastes disposed on land. This increase will be largely from developing regions of the world. The main factor driving this increase is a population shift from rural to urban areas, particularly in regions of highest population, i.e. China and India. This will lead to a greater concentration of waste generation, in turn leading to increased disposal of wastes in deeper sites. In addition increased industrialisation and improved standard of living in regions of high population, will increase the mass of waste disposed of per person and the degradable carbon content of the waste, i.e. the waste will become more like waste from developed countries. In contrast, methane emissions from waste disposed on land in developed countries is likely to decrease by 2010, mainly as result of increased collection and combustion of landfill methane. (Author)

  10. Future emissions pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Grubb, M.; Rogelj, J.; Skeie, R. B.; Friedlingstein, P.; Forster, P.; Frame, D. J.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Allen, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    The stated aim of the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement is `holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C'. We show that emissions reductions proportional to those achieved in an ambitious mitigation scenario, RCP2.6, but beginning in 2017, give a median estimated peak warming of 1.5°C, with a likely (66% probability) range of uncertainty of 1.2-2.0°C. Such a scenario would be approximately consistent with the most ambitious interpretation of the 2030 emissions pledges, but requires reduction rates exceeding 0.3GtC/yr/yr after 2030. A steady reduction at less than half this rate would achieve the same temperature outcome if initiated in 2020. Limiting total CO2 emissions after 2015 to 200GtC would limit future warming to likely less than 0.6°C above present, consistent with 1.5°C above pre-industrial, based on the distribution of responses of the CMIP5 Earth System, but the CMIP5 simulations do not correspond to scenarios that aim to limit warming to such low levels. If future CO2 emissions are successfully adapted to the emerging climate response so as to limit warming in 2100 to 0.6°C above present, and non-CO2 emissions follow the ambitious RCP2.6 scenario, then we estimate that resulting CO2 emissions will unlikely be restricted to less than 250GtC given current uncertainties in climate system response, although still-poorly-modelled carbon cycle feedbacks, such as release from permafrost, may encroach on this budget. Even under a perfectly successful adaptive mitigation regime, emissions consistent with limiting warming to 0.6°C above present are unlikely to be greater than 500GtC.These estimates suggest the 1.5°C goal may not yet be geophysically insurmountable but will nevertheless require, at minimum, the full implementation of the most ambitious interpretation of the Paris pledges followed by accelerated and more fundamental changes in our

  11. Future anthropogenic pollutant emissions in a Mediterranean port city with emphasis on the maritime sector emissions - Study of the impact on the city air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Markakis, Konstantinos; Giannaros, Theodoros; Karagiannidis, Athanasios; Melas, Dimitrios

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study is the estimation of the future emissions in the area of the large urban center of Thessaloniki (Greece) with emphasis on the emissions originated from the maritime sector within the port area of the city which are presented in detail. In addition, the contribution of the future anthropogenic emissions to atmospheric pollution levels in Thessaloniki focusing on PM levels is studied. A 2km spatial resolution anthropogenic gaseous and particulate matter emission inventory has been compiled for the port city of Thessaloniki for the year 2010 with the anthropogenic emission model MOSESS, developed by Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. MOSESS was used for the estimation of emissions from several emission sources (road transport, central heating, industries, maritime sector etc) while the natural emission model NEMO was implemented for the calculation of dust, sea salt and biogenic emissions. Maritime emissions originated from the various processes inside the area of the port (harbor operations such as stockpiles, loading/unloading operations, machineries etc) as well as from the maritime transport sector including passenger ships, cargo shipping, inland waterways vessels (e.g. pleasure crafts) and fish catching ships. Ship emissions were estimated for the three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by local and national authorities (e.g.Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A.). Pollutant anthropogenic emissions were projected to the year 2020. The emissions from all the anthropogenic sources except for the maritime sector were projected using factors provided by the GAINS model. Future emissions from the maritime activities were estimated on the basis of the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and of the legislation for shipping in the future. Future maritime emissions are determined by the vessels

  12. Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

  13. Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

  14. COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS TO PROJECT FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS IN TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CURINANCO, CHILE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor

    2005-07-14

    Deforestation of temperate rainforests in Chile has decreased the provision of ecosystem services, including watershed protection, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Forest conservation can restore those ecosystem services. Greenhouse gas policies that offer financing for the carbon emissions avoided by preventing deforestation require a projection of future baseline carbon emissions for an area if no forest conservation occurs. For a proposed 570 km{sup 2} conservation area in temperate rainforest around the rural community of Curinanco, Chile, we compared three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions: extrapolation from Landsat observations, Geomod, and Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA). Analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data show 1986-1999 net deforestation of 1900 ha in the analysis area, proceeding at a rate of 0.0003 y{sup -1}. The gross rate of loss of closed natural forest was 0.042 y{sup -1}. In the period 1986-1999, closed natural forest decreased from 20,000 ha to 11,000 ha, with timber companies clearing natural forest to establish plantations of non-native species. Analyses of previous field measurements of species-specific forest biomass, tree allometry, and the carbon content of vegetation show that the dominant native forest type, broadleaf evergreen (bosque siempreverde), contains 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon, compared to the carbon density of non-native Pinus radiata plantations of 240 {+-} 60 t ha{sup -1}. The 1986-1999 conversion of closed broadleaf evergreen forest to open broadleaf evergreen forest, Pinus radiata plantations, shrublands, grasslands, urban areas, and bare ground decreased the carbon density from 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon to an average of 100 t ha{sup -1} (maximum 160 t ha{sup -1}, minimum 50 t ha{sup -1}). Consequently, the conversion released 1.1 million t carbon. These analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data provided the data to

  15. Future emissions and atmospheric fate of HFC-1234yf from mobile air conditioners in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Stephan; Shallcross, Dudley E; Reimann, Stefan; Xiao, Ping; Brunner, Dominik; O'Doherty, Simon; Buchmann, Brigitte

    2012-02-07

    HFC-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) is under discussion for replacing HFC-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) as a cooling agent in mobile air conditioners (MACs) in the European vehicle fleet. Some HFC-1234yf will be released into the atmosphere, where it is almost completely transformed to the persistent trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). Future emissions of HFC-1234yf after a complete conversion of the European vehicle fleet were assessed. Taking current day leakage rates and predicted vehicle numbers for the year 2020 into account, European total HFC-1234yf emissions from MACs were predicted to range between 11.0 and 19.2 Gg yr(-1). Resulting TFA deposition rates and rainwater concentrations over Europe were assessed with two Lagrangian chemistry transport models. Mean European summer-time TFA mixing ratios of about 0.15 ppt (high emission scenario) will surpass previously measured levels in background air in Germany and Switzerland by more than a factor of 10. Mean deposition rates (wet + dry) of TFA were estimated to be 0.65-0.76 kg km(-2) yr(-1), with a maxium of ∼2.0 kg km(-2) yr(-1) occurring in Northern Italy. About 30-40% of the European HFC-1234yf emissions were deposited as TFA within Europe, while the remaining fraction was exported toward the Atlantic Ocean, Central Asia, Northern, and Tropical Africa. Largest annual mean TFA concentrations in rainwater were simulated over the Mediterranean and Northern Africa, reaching up to 2500 ng L(-1), while maxima over the continent of about 2000 ng L(-1) occurred in the Czech Republic and Southern Germany. These highest annual mean concentrations are at least 60 times lower than previously determined to be a safe level for the most sensitive aquatic life-forms. Rainwater concentrations during individual rain events would still be 1 order of magnitude lower than the no effect level. To verify these results future occasional sampling of TFA in the atmospheric environment should be considered. If future HFC-1234yf

  16. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  17. Water management in cities of the future using emission control strategies for priority hazardous substances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Eva; Revitt, D. M.; Ledin, A.

    2011-01-01

    Cities of the future face challenges with respect to the quantity and quality of water resources, and multiple managerial options need to be considered in order to safeguard urban surface water quality. In a recently completed project on “Source Control Options for Reducing Emissions of Priority...... in the results. The selected PPs differ in their uses and environmental fate and therefore accumulate in different urban environmental compartment. To achieve the required reduction in PP levels in urban waters the full implementation of existing EU regulation is essential and appropriate combinations...

  18. The Kyoto Protocol Emissions Trading Mechanisms - A Model for financing future nuclear development in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purica, Ionut; John Saroudis

    2001-01-01

    At the beginning of 2001 Romania ratified the Kyoto Protocol (Law 3/2001) thus becoming the first European country to do so. The mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol are now opening new ways to sponsor the financing of nuclear projects. In May 2001 Societatea Nationala Nuclearoelectrica S.S. (SNN) and Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and ANSALDO of Italy signed a contract to complete the second CANDU unit at Cernavoda thus giving a new momentum to the nuclear program in Romania. The Government of Romania has indicated its desire to proceed with the completion of the other units on the Cernavoda site and is open to explore every potential financing mechanism to make this a reality. Although the Kyoto Protocol was not ratified by those countries that have the greatest need to reduce emissions, a market for emissions trading has developed, Canada being one of the important players in this market. Since the emission reduction per dollar invested in the Romanian nuclear program would bring much more reduction than the marginal reduction per dollar invested in environmental protection programs in Canada, where the saturation effect is already taking place, we consider that the application of the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms represents a realistic source for a sustainable cooperation of the two countries. This trend is in line with the latest activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This paper analyzes the impact that the use of emissions credits would have on a typical financing scheme for a future CANDU project in Romania given the present situation and also proposes a model for the structure of the emissions trade that would generate a source of funding for the project. The conclusion is that there is real potential in using Kyoto Protocol mechanisms for financing nuclear development with benefits for both Romania and Canada. (authors)

  19. Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K.; Matthews, D.

    2010-12-01

    If current greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations remain constant, the world would be committed to several centuries of increasing global mean temperatures and sea level rise. By contrast, near elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions would be required to produce diminishing GHG concentrations consistent with stabilization of mean temperatures. Yet long-lived energy and transportation infrastructure now operating can be expected to contribute substantial CO2 emissions over the next 50 years. Barring widespread retrofitting of existing power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies or the early decommissioning of serviceable infrastructure, these “committed emissions” represent infrastructural inertia which may be the primary contributor to total future warming commitment. With respect to GHG emissions, infrastructural inertia may be thought of as having two important and overlapping components: (i) infrastructure that directly releases GHGs to the atmosphere, and (ii) infrastructure that contributes to the continued production of devices that emit GHGs to the atmosphere. For example, the interstate highway and refueling infrastructure in the United States facilitates continued production of gasoline-powered automobiles. Here, we focus only on the warming commitment from infrastructure that directly releases CO2 to the atmosphere. Essentially, we answer the question: What if no additional CO2-emitting devices (e.g., power plants, motor vehicles) were built, but all the existing CO2-emitting devices were allowed to live out their normal lifetimes? What CO2 levels and global mean temperatures would we attain? Of course, the actual lifetime of devices may be strongly influenced by economic and policy constraints. For instance, a ban on new CO2-emitting devices would create tremendous incentive to prolong the lifetime of existing devices. Thus, our scenarios are not realistic, but offer a means of gauging the threat of climate change from existing

  20. After the Hague, Bonn and Marrakech: uncertainties on the future international market of emission permits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitous, A.; Criqui, P.; Blanchard, O.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present an economic assessment, step by step, of the successive developments of the negotiation on weather changes since the Kyoto protocol in 1997 until the agreement achieved in Marrakech during the seventh Conference of the Parties (COP 7) in November 2001. The analysis covers the international market of emission rights, a key mechanism of the Protocol, the purpose of which is to facilitate the Parties' compliance with their undertakings, by introducing flexibility to improve the economic efficiency of emission reduction. However, it now appears that despite the Marrakech agreement in November 2001, the system is weakened by the withdrawal of the USA decided by President G.W. Bush in March 2001, following COP 6 in The Hague, and by a potential excess of permits due to the economic recession of transition countries since the early nineties (hot air). As things stands, the establishment of the market between the countries taking part in the process will undoubtedly require some management of this hot air between transition countries (Eastern Europe and Ex USSR) and the other Parties of appendix B still involved in the process. The uncertainties weighing on the future market of emission permits strengthen the strategic significance of the implementation of effective reduction policies within those regions and particularly within Europe. (authors)

  1. Water management in cities of the future using emission control strategies for priority hazardous substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, E; Revitt, D M; Ledin, A; Lundy, L; Holten Lützhøft, H C; Wickman, T; Mikkelsen, P S

    2011-01-01

    Cities of the future face challenges with respect to the quantity and quality of water resources, and multiple managerial options need to be considered in order to safeguard urban surface water quality. In a recently completed project on 'Source control options for reducing emissions of Priority Pollutants' (ScorePP), seven emission control strategies (ECSs) were developed and tested within a semi-hypothetical case city (SHCC) to evaluate their potential to reduce the emission of selected European priority hazardous substances (PHSs) to surface waters. The ECSs included (1) business-as-usual, (2) full implementation of relevant European (EU) directives, (3) ECS2 in combination with voluntary options for household, municipalities and industry, (4) ECS2 combined with industrial treatment and best available technologies (BAT), (5) ECS2 in combination with stormwater and combined sewer overflow treatment, (6) ECS2 in combination with advanced wastewater treatment, and (7) combinations of ECS3-6. The SHCC approach was chosen to facilitate transparency, to allow compensating for data gaps and to decrease the level of uncertainty in the results. The selected PHSs: cadmium (Cd), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), nonylphenol (NP) and pentabromodiphenyl ether (PBDE) differ in their uses and environmental fate and therefore accumulate in surface waters to differing extents in response to the application of alternative ECS. To achieve the required reduction in PHS levels in urban waters the full implementation of existing EU regulation is prioritised and feasible combinations of managerial and technological options (source control and treatment) can be highly relevant for mitigating releases.

  2. Strongly lensed neutral hydrogen emission: detection predictions with current and future radio interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deane, R. P.; Obreschkow, D.; Heywood, I.

    2015-09-01

    Strong gravitational lensing provides some of the deepest views of the Universe, enabling studies of high-redshift galaxies only possible with next-generation facilities without the lensing phenomenon. To date, 21-cm radio emission from neutral hydrogen has only been detected directly out to z ˜ 0.2, limited by the sensitivity and instantaneous bandwidth of current radio telescopes. We discuss how current and future radio interferometers such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will detect lensed H I emission in individual galaxies at high redshift. Our calculations rely on a semi-analytic galaxy simulation with realistic H I discs (by size, density profile and rotation), in a cosmological context, combined with general relativistic ray tracing. Wide-field, blind H I surveys with the SKA are predicted to be efficient at discovering lensed H I systems, increasingly so at z ≳ 2. This will be enabled by the combination of the magnification boosts, the steepness of the H I luminosity function at the high-mass end, and the fact that the H I spectral line is relatively isolated in frequency. These surveys will simultaneously provide a new technique for foreground lens selection and yield the highest redshift H I emission detections. More near term (and existing) cm-wave facilities will push the high-redshift H I envelope through targeted surveys of known lenses.

  3. Past and future cadmium emissions from municipal solid-waste incinerators in Japan for the assessment of cadmium control policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Kyoko

    2013-11-15

    Cadmium (Cd) is a harmful pollutant emitted from municipal solid-waste incinerators (MSWIs). Cd stack emissions from MSWIs have been estimated between 1970 and 2030 in Japan. The aims of this study are to quantify emitted Cd by category and to analyze Cd control policies to reduce emissions. Emissions were estimated using a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) that took into account representative waste treatment flows and historical changes in emission factors. This work revealed that the emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1t) and were ten times those in 2010 (1.2 t). Emission from MSWIs was two-thirds of that from non-ferrous smelting in 2010. The main Cd emission source was pigment use in the 1970s, but after 2000 it had shifted to nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) batteries. Future emissions were estimated for 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, an intensive collection of used Ni-Cd batteries and a ban on any future use of Ni-Cd batteries will reduce emissions by 0.09 and 0.3 1t, respectively, in 2030. This approach enables us to identify the major Cd emission source from MSWIs, and to prioritize the possible Cd control policies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa M. Bilec

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Brazil’s status as a rapidly developing country is visible in its need for more energy, including electricity. While the current electricity generation mix is primarily hydropower based, high-quality dam sites are diminishing and diversification to other sources is likely. We combined life-cycle data for electricity production with scenarios developed using the IAEA’s MESSAGE model to examine environmental impacts of future electricity generation under a baseline case and four side cases, using a Monte-Carlo approach to incorporate uncertainty in power plant performance and LCA impacts. Our results show that, under the cost-optimal base case scenario, Brazil’s GHGs from electricity (excluding hydroelectric reservoir emissions rise 370% by 2040 relative to 2010, with the carbon intensity per MWh rising 100%. This rise would make Brazil’s carbon emissions targets difficult to meet without demand-side programs. Our results show a future electricity mix dominated by environmental tradeoffs in the use of large-scale renewables, questioning the use tropical hydropower and highlighting the need for additional work to assess and include ecosystem and social impacts, where information is currently sparse.

  5. From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

  6. Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2017-12-01

    China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb

  7. A multinational model for CO2 reduction: defining boundaries of future CO2 emissions in nine countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kram, Tom; Hill, Douglas.

    1996-01-01

    A need to make substantial future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would require major changes in national energy systems. Nine industrialized countries have explored the technical boundaries of CO 2 emission restrictions during the next 40 to 50 years using comparable scenario assumptions and a standard model, MARKAL. Quantitative results for the countries are shown side by side in a set of energy maps that compare the least-cost evolution of the national energy systems by the main factors that contribute to CO 2 emissions. The ability to restrict future CO 2 emissions and the most cost-effective measures for doing so differ among the countries; an international agreement that would mandate substantial emission restrictions among countries by an equal percentage reduction is clearly impossible. The results are a first step toward a basis for allocating such international reductions, and the multinational process by which they were produced provides an example for further international greenhouse gas abatement costing studies. (Author)

  8. Global Emissions of Nitrous Oxide: Key Source Sectors, their Future Activities and Technical Opportunities for Emission Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winiwarter, W.; Höglund-Isaksson, L.; Klimont, Z.; Schöpp, W.; Amann, M.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrous oxide originates primarily from natural biogeochemical processes, but its atmospheric concentrations have been strongly affected by human activities. According to IPCC, it is the third largest contributor to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (after carbon dioxide and methane). Deep decarbonization scenarios, which are able to constrain global temperature increase within 1.5°C, require strategies to cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions on top of phasing out carbon dioxide emissions. Employing the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model, we have estimated global emissions of nitrous oxide until 2050. Using explicitly defined emission reduction technologies we demonstrate that, by 2030, about 26% ± 9% of the emissions can be avoided assuming full implementation of currently existing reduction technologies. Nearly a quarter of this mitigation can be achieved at marginal costs lower than 10 Euro/t CO2-eq with the chemical industry sector offering important reductions. Overall, the largest emitter of nitrous oxide, agriculture, also provides the largest emission abatement potentials. Emission reduction may be achieved by precision farming methods (variable rate technology) as well as by agrochemistry (nitrification inhibitors). Regionally, the largest emission reductions are achievable where intensive agriculture and industry are prevalent (production and application of mineral fertilizers): Centrally Planned Asia including China, North and Latin America, and South Asia including India. Further deep cuts in nitrous oxide emissions will require extending reduction efforts beyond strictly technological solutions, i.e., considering behavioral changes, including widespread adoption of "healthy diets" minimizing excess protein consumption.

  9. Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2017-12-01

    Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

  10. Emission concepts for future passenger car diesel engines; Emissionskonzepte fuer zukuenftige Pkw-Dieselmotoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krueger, M.; Wiartalla, A.; Lichtenberg, T.; Koerfer, T. [FEV Motorentechnik, Aachen (Germany)

    2003-07-01

    In order to keep the current success of the Diesel powered passenger cars also for the future, intensive development effort is absolutely necessary in the near future. A special challenge is presented by the already confirmed or discussed future emission standards. However, every chance must be taken to keep the fuel consumption of the diesel engine respectively diesel powered vehicle on the lowest possible level. In front of this background measures concerning combustion system development as well as exhaust gas aftertreatment are analyzed in this report with respect to their influence on emission reduction and fuel consumption. It can be summarized, that still a significant emission reduction potential exists for the passenger car diesel engine. However, fulfilling the next step of emission legislation, getting effective after 2005, only by combustion system improvement, seems to be a difficult way to go from todays point of view. Especially with respect to fuel consumption, an efficient combination of combustion improvement and exhaust gas aftertreatment represents a more promising solution for the future. Most important for a successful realisation of such an approach will be the overall power consumption of the exhaust gas aftertreatment device. This does also include the thermomanagement of the engine and exhaust gas system as well as the energy losses due to the regeneration demands of the discontinuously working NO{sub x}-and particulate trap. Considering this last issue, a fuel additive as particulate trap regeneration aid as well as the fuel sulphur content respectively the sulphur sensitivity of the NO{sub x}-trap will play a significant role in the future. (orig.) [German] Um den Erfolg des Diesel-Pkw's auch zukuenftig sicherzustellen, sind intensive Entwicklungsarbeiten notwendig. Eine besondere Herausforderung stellen die zukuenftig zu erfuellenden Emissionsanforderungen dar. Dabei muessen alle moeglichen Massnahmen ergriffen werden, um den

  11. Future of energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions of Finnish road freight transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liimatainen, H.

    2013-05-15

    The targets to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions to mitigate climate change are as much applicable to the road freight transport sector as they are to all other sectors of society. The aim of this research is to support the initiatives of the Finnish government for improving the energy efficiency and reducing the CO{sub 2} emissions of road freight transport. This is done by forecasting the future development and giving the policy makers guidance on effective measures for promoting road freight energy efficiency and CO{sub 2} reduction. In the study a new method was introduced for connecting the fuel consumption data and goods transport data gathered from the official Finnish road statistics. This method enabled a detailed analysis of the interrelations between the economy, road freight transport, energy consumption and emissions. This analysis was conducted for the years 1995-2010 and the results were used as background information in the Delphi panel of experts. The experts estimated the development of the Finnish road freight sector to the year 2030. Furthermore, a web-based survey was conducted among Finnish road freight hauliers and shippers in order to explore the attitudes and measures related to the energy efficiency. Expert panel workshops were also organised to identify obstacles for the development of the energy efficiency of road freight transport as well as a wide selection of measures to overcome them. The results indicate that the economic development of different branches has a great effect on the energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions of road freight transport. Reaching the carbon emission target for the year 2030 is possible in the light of the scenarios which were formed based on expert forecasts. However, the target can be achieved with very different development paths, e.g. the structure of the national economy and the volume of transport seem to vary widely in the different scenarios. In the proposed recommendations on the measures

  12. Current applications and future developments of positron emission tomography in head and neck cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lonneux, M.

    2005-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET-scan) is a well-established imaging modality in oncology. Using FDG, PET has also a wide range of applications in head and neck tumors for diagnosis, staging, monitoring of response to therapy, and detection of relapse. After a short technical introduction, the current indications of PET-FDG in head and neck tumors are reviewed. Present and future developments of PET are twofold: the use of new tracers for protein synthesis, cellular proliferation or detection of hypoxia etc., and the introduction of metabolic imaging as a adjunct to CT and MRI to determine target-volumes in radiation treatment planning. However, it has to be emphasized that a thorough clinical validation of the methods used is mandatory before their implementation in routine practice. (author)

  13. Study of methane hydrate as a future energy resource: low emission extraction and power generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Yamada, H.; Kanda, Y.; Sasaki, H.; Okajima, J.; Iga, Y.; Komiya, A.; Maruyama, S.

    2016-08-01

    With the fast increase of world energy consumption in recent years, new and sustainable energy sources are becoming more and more important. Methane Hydrate is one promising candidate for the future energy supply of humankind, due to its vast existence in permafrost regions and near-coast seabed. This study is focused on the effective low emission utilization of methane hydrate from deep seabed. The Nankai Trough of Japan is taken as the target region in this study for methane hydrate extraction and utilization system design. Low emission system and power generation system with CCS (Carbon Capture and Sequestration) processes are proposed and analyzed for production rate and electricity generation efficiency problem study. It is found that the gas production price can reach the current domestic natural gas supply price level if the production rate can be improved. The optimized system is estimated to have power efficiency about 35%. In addition, current development and analysis from micro-to-macro scale methane hydrate production and dissociation dynamics are also discussed into detail in this study.

  14. Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2004-01-01

    We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

  15. Impact of future nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions on the stratospheric ozone layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stolarski, Richard S; Waugh, Darryn W; Douglass, Anne R; Oman, Luke D

    2015-01-01

    The atmospheric levels of human-produced chlorocarbons and bromocarbons are projected to make only small contributions to ozone depletion by 2100. Increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) will become increasingly important in determining the future of the ozone layer. N 2 O increases lead to increased production of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), contributing to ozone depletion. CO 2 increases cool the stratosphere and affect ozone levels in several ways. Cooling decreases the rate of many photochemical reactions, thus slowing ozone loss rates. Cooling also increases the chemical destruction of nitrogen oxides, thereby moderating the effect of increased N 2 O on ozone depletion. The stratospheric ozone level projected for the end of this century therefore depends on future emissions of both CO 2 and N 2 O. We use a two-dimensional chemical transport model to explore a wide range of values for the boundary conditions for CO 2 and N 2 O, and find that all of the current scenarios for growth of greenhouse gases project the global average ozone to be larger in 2100 than in 1960. (letter)

  16. The relationship between gasoline composition and vehicle hydrocarbon emissions: a review of current studies and future research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuetzle, D; Siegl, W O; Jensen, T E; Dearth, M A; Kaiser, E W; Gorse, R; Kreucher, W; Kulik, E

    1994-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to review current studies concerning the relationship of fuel composition to vehicle engine-out and tail-pipe emissions and to outline future research needed in this area. A number of recent combustion experiments and vehicle studies demonstrated that reformulated gasoline can reduce vehicle engine-out, tail-pipe, running-loss, and evaporative emissions. Some of these studies were extended to understand the fundamental relationships between fuel composition and emissions. To further establish these relationships, it was necessary to develop advanced analytical methods for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of hydrocarbons in fuels and vehicle emissions. The development of real-time techniques such as Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, laser diode spectroscopy, and atmospheric pressure ionization mass spectrometry were useful in studying the transient behavior of exhaust emissions under various engine operating conditions. Laboratory studies using specific fuels and fuel blends were carried out using pulse flame combustors, single- and multicylinder engines, and vehicle fleets. Chemometric statistical methods were used to analyze the large volumes of emissions data generated from these studies. Models were developed that were able to accurately predict tail-pipe emissions from fuel chemical and physical compositional data. Some of the primary fuel precursors for benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and C2-C4 alkene emissions are described. These studies demonstrated that there is a strong relationship between gasoline composition and tail-pipe emissions.

  17. Emission potentials of future diesel fuel injection systems; Emissionspotentiale zukuenftiger Diesel-Einspritzsysteme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schommers, J.; Breitbach, H.; Stotz, M.; Schnabel, M. [DaimlerChrysler AG (Germany)

    2007-07-01

    The historical evolution of the diesel engine correlates strongly with fuel injection system developments. Mercedes-Benz contributed significantly to the recent success of the diesel engine, being one of the first car manufacturers to introduce a modern common rail diesel engine in the Mercedes C220 CDI in 1997. The excellent characteristics of modern diesel engines resulted in a 50% market share in newly registered cars in Germany. These characteristics have to be further improved in the next years to keep the diesel engine attractive. Emissions and at the same time fuel consumption and noise need to be further reduced, while engine power has to go up. For Mercedes-Benz key steps to reach these goals are lower compression ratio, higher boost pressures, higher exhaust gas recirculation rates and better EGR cooling, multiple injection patterns and components with stable application parameters over lifetime. Important requirements for future fuel injection systems are high spray momentum, good stability over lifetime, good robustness of injected quantities for varying injection patterns and a low shot-to-shot variation of injected quantities. The high spray momentum has to be achieved especially for small injections and for part load operating points with low pressures. Therefore, the needle opening and closing velocities are of special importance. With special focus on the above requirements, different injector concepts were hydraulically evaluated. Both concepts in serial production and under development from system suppliers, as well as Mercedes-Benz developed prototype injector concepts were chosen. The concepts analysed are a servo-hydraulically driven injector with control piston, two servo-hydraulically driven injectors without control piston with differently adjusted hydraulics, and a direct driven injector, where the needle is driven directly from an actuator without servo-hydraulic amplification. The hydraulic investigations show an excellent performance of

  18. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  19. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  20. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  1. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; hide

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  2. Zero Emission Buildings in Korea—History, Status Quo, and Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schuetze

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the history, status quo, and future prospects of Zero Emission Buildings (ZEBs in the Republic of Korea. The advantages of, and requirements for ZEBs are described, concerning the factors of energy, water, nutrients, and biomass. ZEBs are characterized by net zero energy consumption through the minimization of the energy demand, as well as the onsite production and use of renewable energy. The direct water footprint is reduced by up to 100% through on-site water supply and wastewater management according to the principles of Sustainable Sanitation. The fresh water demand is reduced by using water saving technologies and by recycling of wastewater. Rainwater harvesting, utilization, and infiltration facilitates for onsite drinking water production. Nutrients and biomass from sanitation systems are recycled for local soil application. While traditional Korean buildings can be generally regarded as ZEBs, traditional know-how has been overlooked in the process of modernization and implementation of centralized infrastructure systems in the 20th century. However, the growing interest in sustainability issues in Korea since the beginning of the 21st century is reflected in a growing number of research and development activities, including the design, construction, and operation of ZEBs. The widespread implementation of ZEBs would significantly contribute to sustainable development in the Republic of Korea.

  3. Assessment of Current and Future Air Pollutant Emission Reduction Technologies for Marine Diesel Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-02-01

    Liquefied Natural Gas and Methanol – Dimethyl Ether. 6.3.1 Biodiesel An extensive review across many transportation sectors of the emissions of...33 6.3.1 Biodiesel ...problems. SOx emissions from shipping represent about 60% of global transport SOx emissions. 2.4 Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) The amount of NOx in engines

  4. Natural emissions under future climate condition and their effects on surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Min; Shu, Lei; Wang, Ti-jian; Liu, Qian; Gao, Da; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bing-liang; Han, Yong; Li, Meng-meng; Chen, Pu-long

    2017-02-01

    The natural emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) are sensitive to climate. Future climate change can impact O3 concentrations by perturbing these emissions. To better estimate the variation of natural emissions under different climate conditions and understand its effect on surface O3, we model the present and the future air quality over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by running different simulations with the aid of the WRF-CALGRID model system that contains a natural emission module. Firstly, we estimate the natural emissions at present and in IPCC A1B scenario. The results show that biogenic VOC emission and soil NOx emission over YRD in 2008 is 657 Gg C and 19.1 Gg N, respectively. According to climate change, these emissions in 2050 will increase by 25.5% and 11.5%, respectively. Secondly, the effects of future natural emissions and meteorology on surface O3 are investigated and compared. It is found that the variations in meteorological fields can significantly alter the spatial distribution of O3 over YRD, with the increases of 5-15 ppb in the north and the decreases of -5 to -15 ppb in the south. However, only approximately 20% of the surface O3 increases caused by climate change can be attributed to the natural emissions, with the highest increment up to 2.4 ppb. Finally, Ra (the ratio of impacts from NOx and VOCs on O3 formation) and H2O2/HNO3 (the ratio between the concentrations of H2O2 and HNO3) are applied to study the O3 sensitivity in YRD. The results show that the transition value of H2O2/HNO3 will turn from 0.3 to 0.5 in 2008 to 0.4-0.8 in 2050. O3 formation in the YRD region will be insensitive to VOCs under future climate condition, implying more NOx need to be cut down. Our findings can help us understand O3 variation trend and put forward the reasonable and effective pollution control policies in these famous polluted areas.

  5. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

    2010-01-01

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  6. Common rail technology for future low emission diesel vehicles; Common Rail Technologie fuer zukuenftige Diesel Fahrzeuge mit niedrigen Emissionswerten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoeppe, D.; Bercher, P.; Guerrassi, N.; Spadafora, P.

    2004-07-01

    The diesel fuel injection equipment will remain a key element for diesel engine technology evolution. Achieving emission targets at competitive prices has been and will continue to be a major technical challenge to the engine manufacturer. Delphi is continuously developing its common rail system and its components to fulfill future stricter emission legislation while simultaneously improving performance on noise, fuel consumption and power output. This paper will describe the latest developments that delphi introduced into the market in their common rail system to comply with future legislative emission targets. Further, a novel common rail injector will be presented, that uses a revolutionary, direct acting operating principle, where the nozzle is directly operated by a piezo actuator, without the use of a servo-hydraulic flow circuit. The superior performance of this injector concept will be shown, especially in minimum quantity capability as well as multiple injection performance. The direct acting operating principle allows rapid opening and closing of the injector, without compromising pilot quantity capability. The emission benefit obtained by such opening and closing behavior will be shown. Finally, based on the findings discussed, the paper will conclude on key features of future common rail systems. (orig.)

  7. Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia; Campbell, Grant; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

  8. Future research program on prompt γ-ray emission in nuclear fission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberstedt, S.; Billnert, R.; Hambsch, F.-J.; Lebois, M.; Oberstedt, A.; Wilson, J. N.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years the measurement of prompt fission γ-ray spectra (PFGS) has gained renewed interest, after about forty years since the first comprehensive studies of the reactions 235U(n th , f), 239Pu(n th ,f) and 252Cf(sf). The renaissance was initiated by requests for new values especially for γ-ray multiplicity and average total energy release per fission in neutron-induced fission of 235U and 239Pu. Both isotopes are considered the most important ones with respect to the modeling of innovative cores required for the Generation-IV reactors, the majority working with fast neutrons. During the last 5 years we have conducted a systematic study of spectral data for thermal-neutron-induced fission on 235U and 241Pu as well as for the spontaneous fission of 252Cf with unprecedented accuracy. From the new data we conclude that those reactions do not considerably contribute to the observed heat excess and suspect other reactions playing a significant role. Possible contributions may originate from fast-neutron-induced reactions on 238U, which is largely present in the fuel, or from γ-induced fission from neutron capture in the construction material. A first experiment campaign on prompt γ-ray emission from fast-neutron-induced fission on 235,238U was successfully performed in order to test our assumptions. In the following we attempt to summarize, what has been done in the field to date, and to motivate future measurement campaigns exploiting dedicated neutron and photon beams as well as upcoming highly efficient detector assemblies.

  9. Telecommunications energy and greenhouse gas emissions management for future network growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Chien Aun; Gygax, André F.; Leckie, Christopher; Wong, Elaine; Nirmalathas, Ampalavanapillai; Hinton, Kerry

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Model to evaluate key interdependencies of a fast growing telecommunications network. • Network growth analysis using real data and Monte Carlo simulation. • Importance of both operational and embodied energy efficiency improvements. • Embodied energy expected to dominate in the future under current energy efficiency trends. • Carbon footprint and energy management through optimum network replacement cycle. - Abstract: A key aspect of greener network deployment is how to achieve sustainable growth of a telecommunications network, both in terms of operational and embodied energy. Hence, in this paper we investigate how the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a fast growing telecommunications network can be minimized. Due to the complexities in modeling the embodied energy of networks, this aspect of energy consumption has received limited attention by network operators. Here, we present the first model to evaluate the interdependencies of the four main contributing factors in managing the sustainable growth of a telecommunications network: (i) the network’s operational energy consumption; (ii) the embodied energy of network equipment; (iii) network traffic growth; and (iv) the expected energy efficiency improvements in both the operational and embodied phases. Using Monte Carlo techniques with real network data, our results demonstrate that under the current trends in overall energy efficiency improvements the network embodied energy will account for over 40% of the total network energy in 2025 compared to 20% in 2015. Further, we find that the optimum equipment replacement cycle, which will result in the lowest total network life cycle energy, is directly dependent on the technological progress in energy efficiency improvements of both operational and embodied phases. Our model and analysis highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to better understand the interactions between network growth, technological

  10. Future research program on prompt γ-ray emission in nuclear fission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberstedt, S.; Hambsch, F.J. [Joint Research Centre IRMM, European Commission, Geel (Belgium); Billnert, R. [Joint Research Centre IRMM, European Commission, Geel (Belgium); Chalmers Tekniska Hoegskola, Fundamental Fysik, Goeteborg (Sweden); Lebois, M.; Wilson, J.N. [Institut de Physique Nucleaire Orsay, Orsay (France); Oberstedt, A. [Chalmers Tekniska Hoegskola, Fundamental Fysik, Goeteborg (Sweden); Ossolution Consulting, Oerebro (Sweden)

    2015-12-15

    In recent years the measurement of prompt fission γ-ray spectra (PFGS) has gained renewed interest, after about forty years since the first comprehensive studies of the reactions {sup 235}U(n{sub th}, f), {sup 239}Pu(n{sub th},f) and {sup 252}Cf(sf). The renaissance was initiated by requests for new values especially for γ-ray multiplicity and average total energy release per fission in neutron-induced fission of {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu. Both isotopes are considered the most important ones with respect to the modeling of innovative cores required for the Generation-IV reactors, the majority working with fast neutrons. During the last 5 years we have conducted a systematic study of spectral data for thermal-neutron-induced fission on {sup 235}U and {sup 241}Pu as well as for the spontaneous fission of {sup 252}Cf with unprecedented accuracy. From the new data we conclude that those reactions do not considerably contribute to the observed heat excess and suspect other reactions playing a significant role. Possible contributions may originate from fast-neutron-induced reactions on {sup 238}U, which is largely present in the fuel, or from γ-induced fission from neutron capture in the construction material. A first experiment campaign on prompt γ-ray emission from fast-neutron-induced fission on {sup 235,238}U was successfully performed in order to test our assumptions. In the following we attempt to summarize, what has been done in the field to date, and to motivate future measurement campaigns exploiting dedicated neutron and photon beams as well as upcoming highly efficient detector assemblies. (orig.)

  11. Positron emission tomography as a diagnostic tool in infection: present role and future possibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sandip; Chryssikos, Timothy; Moghadam-Kia, Siamak; Zhuang, Hongming; Torigian, Drew A; Alavi, Abass

    2009-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed the emergence of yet another promising application of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) imaging in the detection and management of patients with infection and inflammatory disorders. This phenomenon is quite evident when the peer-reviewed scientific literature is searched for on this topic. Among these scientific communications, the 6 conditions in which FDG-PET has demonstrated its greatest utility include (1) chronic osteomyelitis, (2) complicated lower-limb prostheses, (3) complicated diabetic foot, (4) fever of unknown origin, (5) acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (ie, AIDS), and (6) vascular graft infection and fistula. On the basis of published literature, orthopedic infections, particularly those related to implanted prostheses and osteomyelitis (including that occurring in the setting of a complicated diabetic foot), can be detected successfully by the use of FDG-PET and, therefore, this modality has great promise for becoming the study of choice in these complex settings. Increasingly, this technique is being used to detect infection in soft tissues, including those representing the sources of fever of unknown origin. The ability of FDG-PET to diagnose vascular graft infection and fistula, even when the anatomical imaging modalities are inconclusive, is of considerable interest to practitioners of vascular surgery. Combined PET/computed tomography (CT) imaging has the potential to determine the sites of infection or inflammation with high precision. The data on the role of PET/CT imaging in the assessment of infection and inflammation is sparse, but this combined modality approach may prove to be the study of choice in foreseeable future for precise localization of involved sites. However, the role of PET/CT may be limited in the presence of metallic artifacts (such as those caused by prostheses) adjacent to the sites of infection.

  12. On-road vehicle emission control in Beijing: past, present, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ye; Wang, Renjie; Zhou, Yu; Lin, Bohong; Fu, Lixin; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming

    2011-01-01

    Beijing, the capital of China, has experienced rapid motorization since 1990; a trend that is likely to continue. The growth in vehicles and the corresponding emissions create challenges to improving the urban air quality. In an effort to reduce the impact of vehicle emissions on urban air quality, Beijing has adopted a number of vehicle emission control strategies and policies since the mid 1990 s. These are classified into seven categories: (1) emission control on new vehicles; (2) emission control on in-use vehicles; (3) fuel quality improvements; (4) alternative-fuel and advanced vehicles; (5) economic policies; (6) public transport; and (7) temporal traffic control measures. Many have proven to be successful, such as the Euro emission standards, unleaded gasoline and low sulfur fuel, temporal traffic control measures during the Beijing Olympic Games, etc. Some, however, have been failures, such as the gasoline-to-LPG taxi retrofit program. Thanks to the emission standards for new vehicles as well as other controls, the fleet-average emission rates of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) by each major vehicle category are decreasing over time. For example, gasoline cars decreased fleet-average emission factors by 12.5% for CO, 10.0% for HC, 5.8% for NO(X), and 13.0% for PM(10) annually since 1995, and such a trend is likely to continue. Total emissions for Beijing's vehicle fleet increased from 1995 to 1998. However, they show a clear and steady decrease between 1999 and 2009. In 2009, total emissions of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) were 845,000 t, 121,000 t, 84,000 t, and 3700 t, respectively; with reductions of 47%, 49%, 47%, and 42%, relative to 1998. Beijing has been considered a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, similar to the role of California to the U.S. The continued rapid growth of vehicles, however, is challenging Beijing's policy-makers.

  13. Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin

    2013-01-01

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inven...

  14. Modeling the response of forest isoprene emissions to future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and changes in climate (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monson, R. K.; Heald, C. L.; Guenther, A. B.; Wilkinson, M.

    2009-12-01

    Isoprene emissions from plants to the atmosphere are sensitive to changes in temperature, light and atmospheric CO2 concentration in both the short- (seconds-to-minutes) and long-term (hours-to-months). We now understand that the different time constants for these responses are due to controls by different sets of biochemical and physiological processes n leaves. Progress has been made in the past few years toward converting this process-level understanding into quantitative models. In this talk, we consider this progress with special emphasis on the short- and long-term responses to atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. A new biochemically-based model is presented for describing the CO2 responses, and the model is deployed in a global context to predict interactions between the influences of temperature and CO2 on the global isoprene emission rate. The model is based on the theory of enzyme-substrate kinetics, particularly with regard to those reactions that produce puruvate or glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate, the two chloroplastic substrates for isoprene biosynthesis. In the global model, when we accounted for CO2 inhibition of isoprene emission in the long-term response, we observed little impact on present-day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr-1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions predicted from past models which are due to a projected warmer climate, were entirely offset by including the CO2 effects. The isoprene emission response to CO2 was dominated by the long-term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less from the short-term effect. We use this analysis as a framework for grounding future global models of isoprene emission in biochemical and physiological observations.

  15. Future vehicle composition structures and CO{sub 2} emissions based on automobile selection model for consumers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chikahisa, T.; Tabe, Y.; Yamauchi, M. [Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan). Graduate School of Engineering, Energy and Environmental Systems Div.

    2006-07-01

    This paper examined future market growth trends of low emission vehicles for passenger cars in Japan, England and the United States. Reductions in carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions occurring as a result of increased market uptake of low emission vehicles were also analyzed. A consumer model was then calibrated with statistical data from each of the analyzed countries. Transportation demands were simulated using a simple formula which included gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates for the analyzed countries. Results of the analysis showed that England has the highest potential for reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. However, none of the countries analyzed in the simulations met Kyoto protocol requirements for reduced automotive emissions. Market shares of low emission vehicles were similar in Japan and England, and it is anticipated that hybrid cars will reach a substantial share of the market in the next decade. Market growth in fuel cell-powered cars is expected to be slow. While consumer characteristics were similar in Japan and England, American consumers paid more attention to vehicle costs as opposed to maintenance costs. Results also indicated that total vehicle travelling mileage is increasing. Hybrid car purchases are expected to increase significantly in England and Japan, but gasoline-powered vehicles will maintain their market share in the United Sates. 2 refs., 2 tabs., 13 figs.

  16. Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production in Russia: Current status and possible scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginzburg, V.

    1998-01-01

    In accordance with the framework Convention on Climate Change that was signed and ratified by Russian Federation, periodical reports about the actions of Russia are published. An inventory of human origin sources of greenhouse gas was prepared. Carbondioxide represented 72% of total greenhouse das emissions. Policy and action plans for limiting of greenhouse gas emissions are developing

  17. The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J M; Fahey, David W; Daniel, John S; McFarland, Mack; Andersen, Stephen O

    2009-07-07

    The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

  18. The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dubois, G.; Ceron, J.P.; Peeters, P.M.; Gössling, S.

    2011-01-01

    Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid

  19. The Australian coal industry: now, and the future under carbon dioxide emission restrictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cain, D.A.

    1990-01-01

    Coal produces more carbon dioxide per unit of combustion energy than other fossil fuels. Therefore, reducing coal consumption is commonly advocated as one way to control greenhouse gas emissions and hence predicted global warming. Australia is highly dependent on coal, both as a primary energy source and as a major export commodity. Action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by substantially decreasing coal consumption would have a very serious impact on the Australian coal industry and the Australian economy. Australia's dependence on coal and the potential conflict between the objective of further processing Australia's mineral exports and calls to limit carbon dioxide emissions is described. The effect on coal consumption of one scenario for reducing Australia's carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation and possible effects of global carbon dioxide emission reductions on world coal trade are discussed. 24 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs

  20. Historical and future emission of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from gas-fired combustion in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yifeng; Nie, Lei; Zhou, Zhen; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Wu, Xiaoqing; Cheng, Linglong

    2017-07-01

    The consumption of natural gas in Beijing has increased in the past decade due to energy structure adjustments and air pollution abatement. In this study, an integrated emission inventory of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted from gas-fired combustion in Beijing was developed for the period from 2000 to 2014 using a technology-based approach. Future emission trends were projected through 2030 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. We found that emissions of primary HAPs exhibited an increasing trend with the rapid increase in natural gas consumption. Our estimates indicated that the total emissions of NO X , particulate matter (PM) 10 , PM 2.5 , CO, VOCs, SO 2 , black carbon, Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, and benzo[a]pyrene from gas-fired combustion in Beijing were approximately 22,422 t, 1042 t, 781 t, 19,097 t, 653 t, 82 t, 19 t, 0.6 kg, 0.1 kg, 43 kg, 52 kg, 0.3 kg, 0.03 kg, 4.3 kg, 0.6 kg, 216 μg, and 242 g, respectively, in 2014. To mitigate the associated air pollution and health risks caused by gas-fired combustion, stricter emission standards must be established. Additionally, combustion optimization and flue gas purification system could be used for lowering NO X emissions from gas-fired combustion, and gas-fired facilities should be continuously monitored based on emission limits. Graphical abstract Spatial distribution and typical live photos of gas-fired boiler in Beijing.

  1. Water and energy link in the cities of the future - achieving net zero carbon and pollution emissions footprint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novotny, V

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the link between water conservation, reclamation, reuse and energy use as related to the goal of achieving the net zero carbon emission footprint in future sustainable cities. It defines sustainable ecocities and outlines quantitatively steps towards the reduction of energy use due to water and used water flows, management and limits in linear and closed loop water/stormwater/wastewater management systems. The three phase water energy nexus diagram may have a minimum inflection point beyond which reduction of water demand may not result in a reduction of energy and carbon emissions. Hence, water conservation is the best alternative solution to water shortages and minimizing the carbon footprint. A marginal water/energy chart is developed and proposed to assist planners in developing future ecocities and retrofitting older communities to achieve sustainability.

  2. Enabling Future Large Searches for Exoplanet Auroral Emission with the EPIC Correlator Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyagarajan, Nithyanandan; Beardsley, Adam P.; Bowman, Judd D.; Morales, Miguel F.

    2017-05-01

    Extrasolar planets are expected to emit strong ``auroral'' emission at radio frequencies generated by the interaction of the host star's stellar winds with the planet's magnetosphere through electron-cyclotron maser emission. This transient emission lasts a few seconds to days and is almost fully circularly polarized. Detecting this emission in exoplanets is a critical probe of their magnetospheres and thus their interior compositions and habitability. The intensity and detectability of the emission depends on the suitability of many factors to the observing parameters such as the strength of the stellar wind power, the planetary magnetosphere cross-section, the highly beamed and coherent nature of electron-cyclotron emission, and narrow ranges of the planet's orbital phase. Large areas of sky must be surveyed continuously to high sensitivity to detect auroral emission. Next-generation radio telescopes with wide fields of view, large collecting areas and high efficiency are needed for these searches. This poses challenges to traditional correlator architectures whose computational cost scales as the square of the number of antennas. I will present a novel radio aperture synthesis imaging architecture - E-field Parallel Imaging Correlator (EPIC) - whose all-sky and full Stokes imaging capabilities will not only address the aforementioned factors preventing detection but also solve the computational challenges posed by large arrays. Compared to traditional imaging, EPIC is inherently fast and thus presents the unique advantage of probing transient timescales ranging orders of magnitude from tens of microseconds to days at no additional cost.

  3. Current and future emissions of primary pollutants from coal-fired power plants in Shaanxi, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yong; Hu, Jianlin; Ying, Qi; Hao, Hongke; Wang, Dexiang; Zhang, Hongliang

    2017-10-01

    A high-resolution inventory of primary atmospheric pollutants from coal-fired power plants in Shaanxi in 2012 was built based on a detailed database compiled at unit level involving unit capacity, boiler size and type, commission time, corresponding control technologies, and average coal quality of 72 power plants. The pollutants included SO 2 , NO x , fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), inhalable particulate matter (PM 10 ), organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). Emission factors for SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 and PM 10 were adopted from standardized official promulgation, supplemented by those from local studies. The estimated annual emissions of SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , PM 10 , EC, OC, CO and NMVOC were 152.4, 314.8, 16.6, 26.4, 0.07, 0.27, 64.9 and 2.5kt, respectively. Small units (emission rates compared to medium (≥100MW and emissions were decontamination efficiency, sulfur content and ash content of coal. Weinan and Xianyang were the two cities with the highest emissions, and Guanzhong Plain had the largest emission density. Despite the projected growth of coal consumption, emissions would decrease in 2030 due to improvement in emission control technologies and combustion efficiencies. SO 2 and NO x emissions would experience significant reduction by ~81% and ~84%, respectively. PM 2.5 , PM 10 , EC and OC would be decreased by ~43% and CO and NMVOC would be reduced by ~16%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heil, M.T.

    2001-01-01

    This paper estimates the historic relationship between carbon emissions and GDP using data across countries and across time. We combine this relationship with plausible projections for GDP and population growth to construct a model that offers insights into the likely path of global emissions in the next century. In addition, we experiment with a method for incorporating oil prices into the model. Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the larger structural models. (author)

  5. Compliance with future emission standards of mobile machines by developing a monovalent natural gas combustion process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prehn, Sascha; Wichmann, Volker; Harndorf, Horst; Beberdick, Wolfgang

    2014-01-01

    Within the presented project a monovalent natural gas engine is being developed. Based on a serial diesel engine the operation mode of this prototype is changed to a spark ignition concept. The long term purpose of this new engine is an agricultural application. One major objective of the project is the investigation and evaluation of a combustion process, able to fulfil the performance requests as well as the European emission limits for nitrogen oxides NO x , and carbon monoxide CO of mobile machinery, which become into law in October 2014 (EU stage IV). At the time there are no legislative regulations existing regarding the methane emissions of the observed engines. To get a benefit in greenhouse gas emissions compared to diesel or gasoline engines the methane emissions have to be minimized while operating in natural gas mode. In the course of the current project an engine operation with a methane emission less than 0.5 g/kWh (representing the EURO VI limit for heavy duty vehicles) could be demonstrated. In contrast to diesel engines for agricultural applications it is possible to comply with the emission standards without using a high sophisticated after treatment system consisting of diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), particulate filter (DPF) and SCR catalyst. The usage of a three way catalyst optimized for high methane conversions is sufficient for a stoichiometry gas operation with exhaust gas recirculation. Therefore a significant cost advantage is given.

  6. Drought impact on Quercus pubescens Willd. isoprene emissions over the Mediterranean area: what future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cyrielle Genard-Zielinski, Anne; Boissard, Christophe; Ormeño, Elena; Lathière, Juliette; Guenet, Bertrand; Gauquelin, Thierry; Fernandez, Catherine

    2015-04-01

    Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) released by plants mostly originate from their secondary metabolism. Their emissions are modulated, in terms of intensity and molecule diversity, by environmental conditions. Among BVOCs, isoprene has been especially studied due to its high emission fluxes and its contribution to tropospheric photochemistry, both in the gaseous and particulate phases. However, the way isoprene emissions are impacted by some abiotic factors, especially water stress, is still under debate. In a world facing climatic changes, global climate models expect air temperature and drought intensity to strengthen in the Mediterranean area by 2100. Our work focuses on the impact of water stress on isoprene emissions (ERiso) from Quercus pubescens Willd. This species covers large areas of the Mediterranean area where it appears to be the main isoprene emitter. An in situ experimentation was performed at the O3HP (Oak Observatory at OHP, southern France) in a pubescent oak forest with trees adapted to long lasting stress periods. We investigated during a whole seasonal cycle (from June 2012 to June 2013) the course of ERiso under both natural water stress (control treatment: C) and intensified water stress (stress treatment: S) by artificially reducing rain by 30% using a specific rain exclusion device. Restricted rain did not modify either the net CO2 assimilation or ERiso during the whole season. However, isoprene emission factors (Is) for trees under S were significantly higher (a factor of ˜ 2) than for trees growing under C in August (137.8 compared to 75.3 μgC.gDM-1.h-1 respectively) and September (75.3 compared to 40.2 μgC.gDM-1.h-1 respectively). Based on our experimental emission database, an appropriate isoprene emission algorithm (GZ2014) was developed using a statistic approach (an artificial neural network). Using ambient and edaphic environmental parameters integrated over up to 3 weeks, GZ2014 was found to represent more than 80% of

  7. Road traffic emissions - predictions of future contributions to regional ozone levels in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reis, S.; Friedrich, R.; Obermeier, A.; Unger, S.

    2000-01-01

    As part of the European Commission research project 'Assessment of policy instruments for efficient ozone abatement strategies in Europe,' detailed emission projections have been developed for the year 2010 based upon currently adopted measures, and feasible reductions. For road-traffic emissions this projection considers passenger cars, light- and heavy-duty vehicles, mopeds and motorcycles. Here we present model calculations made with the EMEP 3-D Eulerian model to illustrate the relative contribution of each of these road-traffic sectors to ozone concentrations across Europe. The model is run for a six-month period, April-September 1996. The model results clearly suggest that further reduction in road-traffic emissions beyond currently planned measures would be beneficial in reducing ozone over Europe, particularly in the case of heavy-duty vehicles and evaporative emissions. These results do of course depend on the estimated emissions in each sector for the year 2010, and we show that this is a major source of uncertainty in such scenario calculations. (author)

  8. Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D. [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

    2010-09-15

    Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO{sub 2}e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth). (author)

  9. Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D.

    2010-01-01

    Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO 2 e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth).

  10. Current and future greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation in China: implications for electric vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian; Wallington, Timothy J

    2014-06-17

    China's oil imports and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown rapidly over the past decade. Addressing energy security and GHG emissions is a national priority. Replacing conventional vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs) offers a potential solution to both issues. While the reduction in petroleum use and hence the energy security benefits of switching to EVs are obvious, the GHG benefits are less obvious. We examine the current Chinese electric grid and its evolution and discuss the implications for EVs. China's electric grid will be dominated by coal for the next few decades. In 2015 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, EVs will need to use less than 14, 19, and 23 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 183 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. In 2020, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou EVs will need to use less than 13, 18, and 20 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 137 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. EVs currently demonstrated in China use 24-32 kWh/100 km. Electrification will reduce petroleum imports; however, it will be very challenging for EVs to contribute to government targets for GHGs emissions reduction.

  11. Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

    2009-07-01

    Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

  12. Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

    2016-04-01

    The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature

  13. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.; Vimmerstedt, L.

    2013-03-01

    Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  14. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation. Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Dunphy, R. T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-03-15

    Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  15. Consequences of new scientific findings for future abatement of ammonia emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erisman, J.W.; Monteny, G.J.

    1998-01-01

    Several studies have shown that the estimated decreases in emissions of ammonia in the Netherlands are overestimated. Results obtained from recent research on the so-called compensation point of ammonia in intensive farming areas, research in areas affected with swine fever, and research on

  16. FUTURE FOSSIL FUEL PRICE IMPACTS ON NDC ACHIEVEMENT; ESTIMATION OF GHG EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Arino

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Shale Revolution in the US, a supply-side innovation in oil and gas production, has been dramatically changing the world’s fossil fuel energy markets – leading to a decrease in oil, gas and coal prices. Some projections suggest that low fossil fuel prices might continue at least over the next few decades. Uncertainty in fossil fuel prices might affect the levels of emission reductions expected from submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs and/or influence the difficulty of achieving the NDCs. This paper evaluated the impact of different (high, medium, and low fossil fuel prices, sustained through to 2050, on worldwide GHG emissions reductions and associated costs (mainly marginal abatement costs (MACs. Total global GHG emissions were estimated to be 57.5-61.5 GtCO2eq by 2030, with the range shown reflecting uncertainties about fossil fuel prices and the target levels of several NDCs (i.e., whether their upper or lower targets were adopted. It was found that lower fuel prices not only diminished the environmental effectiveness of global NDCs but also widened regional differences of marginal and total abatement costs, thereby generating more room for carbon leakage. One possible policy direction in terms of abatement efficiency, fairness and environmental effectiveness would be to require countries with low marginal and total abatement costs but having a major influence on global GHG emissions (such as China and India to increase their mitigation efforts, especially in a low-fuelprice world.

  17. The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Future energy-efficient and low-emissions glass melting processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beerkens, R.G.C.; Limpt, J.A.C. van; Lankhorst, A.M.; Santen, P.J. van

    2012-01-01

    All over the world, there is an increasing drive to develop new technologies or concepts for industrial glass melting furnaces, with the main aim to increase the energy efficiency, tabilize production and reduce emissions. The application of new process sensors, improved furnace design, intelligent

  19. How much do electric drive vehicles matter to future U.S. emissions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babaee, Samaneh; Nagpure, Ajay S; DeCarolis, Joseph F

    2014-01-01

    Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles--known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs)--may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO2 policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.

  20. Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bristow

    2016-11-01

    provide a total GHG emission from this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha−1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha−1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %. Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE was a net carbon sink of −2.1 Mg C ha−1, or −7.7 Mg CO2-e ha−1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1 provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2 compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use

  1. Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bristow, Mila; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Beringer, Jason; Livesley, Stephen J.; Edwards, Andrew C.; Arndt, Stefan K.

    2016-11-01

    this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha-1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha-1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission) and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %). Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was a net carbon sink of -2.1 Mg C ha-1, or -7.7 Mg CO2-e ha-1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1) provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2) compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only) savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use decision making processes associated with land and water resource

  2. Trend and future of diesel engine: Development of high efficiency and low emission low temperature combustion diesel engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, R J; Yusoff, M Z; Palanisamy, K

    2013-01-01

    Stringent emission policy has put automotive research and development on developing high efficiency and low pollutant power train. Conventional direct injection diesel engine with diffused flame has reached its limitation and has driven R and D to explore other field of combustion. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and homogeneous charge combustion ignition has been proven to be effective methods in decreasing combustion pollutant emission. Nitrogen Oxide (NO x ) and Particulate Matter (PM) formation from combustion can be greatly suppressed. A review on each of method is covered to identify the condition and processes that result in these reductions. The critical parameters that allow such combustion to take place will be highlighted and serves as emphasis to the direction of developing future diesel engine system. This paper is written to explore potential of present numerical and experimental methods in optimizing diesel engine design through adoption of the new combustion technology.

  3. Emission and transmission tomography systems to be developed for the future needs of Jules Horowitz material testing reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotiluoto, Petri [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O.Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland)], E-mail: petri.kotiluoto@vtt.fi; Wasastjerna, Frej; Kekki, Tommi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O.Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Sipilae, Heikki; Banzuzi, Kukka [Oxford Instruments Analytical Oy, Nihtisillankuja 5, P.O.Box 85, FI-02631 Espoo (Finland); Kinnunen, Petri; Heikinheimo, Liisa [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O.Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland)

    2009-08-01

    The new 100 MW Jules Horowitz material testing reactor will be built in Cadarache, France. It will support, for instance, research on new types of innovative nuclear fuel. As a Finnish in-kind contribution, 3D emission and transmission tomography equipment will be delivered for both the reactor and the active component storage pool. The image reconstruction of activities inside the used nuclear fuel will be based on gamma spectrometry measurements. A new type of underwater digital X-ray linear detector array is under development for transmission imaging, based on GaAs and direct conversion of X-rays into an electrical signal. A shared collimator will be used for both emission and transmission measurements. Some preliminary design has been performed. For the current design, the expected gamma spectrometric response of a typical high-purity germanium detector has been simulated with MCNP for minimum and maximum source activities (specified by CEA) to be measured in future.

  4. Trend and future of diesel engine: Development of high efficiency and low emission low temperature combustion diesel engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, R. J.; Yusoff, M. Z.; Palanisamy, K.

    2013-06-01

    Stringent emission policy has put automotive research & development on developing high efficiency and low pollutant power train. Conventional direct injection diesel engine with diffused flame has reached its limitation and has driven R&D to explore other field of combustion. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and homogeneous charge combustion ignition has been proven to be effective methods in decreasing combustion pollutant emission. Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) and Particulate Matter (PM) formation from combustion can be greatly suppressed. A review on each of method is covered to identify the condition and processes that result in these reductions. The critical parameters that allow such combustion to take place will be highlighted and serves as emphasis to the direction of developing future diesel engine system. This paper is written to explore potential of present numerical and experimental methods in optimizing diesel engine design through adoption of the new combustion technology.

  5. Sorghum production under future climate in the Southwestern USA: model projections of yield, greenhouse gas emissions and soil C fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.

    2016-12-01

    Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for

  6. The future of the SIRAD SEE facility Ion-Electron Emission Microscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Wyss, J; Kaminski, A; Magalini, A; Nigro, M; Pantano, D; Sedhykh, S

    2002-01-01

    The SIRAD facility is dedicated to radiation damage studies on semiconductor detectors, electronic devices and systems, using proton and ion beams delivered by a 15 MV tandem accelerator. It is routinely used by groups involved in detector development for elementary particle physics, electronic device physics and space applications. In particular, Single Event Effect studies are very important to the latter two activities. Presently, the facility can only characterize the global sensitivity of a device or system to single ion impacts. To map out the sensitivity of a device with micrometric resolution, following an idea developed at SANDIA, we will implement an Ion-Electron Emission Microscope (IEEM) to reconstruct the X,Y and time coordinates of an impacting energetic ion by imaging the secondary electrons emitted by the sample using a standard emission electron microscope and position sensitive detector system. After describing typical Single Event Effect activities at SIRAD we will discuss the basic princip...

  7. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  8. Industry in the 5th Environmental Outlook. Background information and final conclusions on the future development of environmental pressure (emissions) due to industrial production in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wesselink, L.G.; Elzenga, H.E.; Booij, H.; Peek, K.; Thomas, R.; Duvoort, G.L.; Van Schijndel, M.W.

    2001-01-01

    The present and future development of environmental pressure (here emissions) due to industrial production in the Netherlands are discussed. Results were - strongly aggregated - also presented in the 5th Environmental Outlook. We studied developments in production levels, energy use and emissions of Dutch industry and the effect of environmental policy measures, in the period 1980-2020. We used monitoring data for the period 1980-1998 en two scenarios (Global Competition and European Coordination) for the subsequent 1998-2020 period. It is concluded, that future CO2 emissions due to industrial production will continue to increase, that emissions of fluorinated (Kyoto) gasses will strongly decrease and that emissions of NOx, SO2, VOS en fine particles will continue to decrease. Yet, current environmental policy is insufficient to meet national Dutch emission targets of NOx, SO2, VOS in 2010

  9. REDD+ projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo: impacts on future emissions, income and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosnier, Aline; Bocqueho, Geraldine; Mant, Rebecca; Obersteiner, Michael; Havlik, Petr; Kapos, Val; Fritz, Steffen; Botrill, Leo

    2014-05-01

    The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) encompasses a large rainforest area which has been rather preserved up to now. However, pressure on the forests is increasing with high population growth, transition toward political stability and the abundance of minerals in the country. REDD+ is a developing mechanism under the UNFCCC that aims to support developing countries that want to make efforts to reduce their emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The REDD+ strategy in DRC combines an independent national fund and independent REDD+ projects at the local level that are at the initial stage of implementation. The objective of this paper is to assess i) emissions reduction due to the implementation of the REDD+ pilot projects taking into account potential leakage and ii) potential co-benefits of REDD+ pilot projects in terms of biodiversity and rural income by 2030. We use the land use economic model CongoBIOM adapted from GLOBIOM which represents land-based activities and land use changes at a 50x50km resolution level. It includes domestic and international demand for agricultural products, fuel wood and minerals which are the main deforestation drivers in the Congo Basin region. Finally, we run a sensitivity analysis on emissions from land use change according to three different above and below ground living biomass estimates: downscaled FAO, NASA and WHRC.

  10. Recent climatic change, greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: The implications for India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, P. Govinda; Kelly, P. M.; Hulme, M.

    1996-03-01

    In this paper, we discuss past climatic trends over India, greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption, forest and land-use changes, climate change scenarios for the year 2050, potential consequences for agriculture and cyclone activity and the possibility that India might limit the increasing trend in its emissions. India's mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by about 0.4°C over the past ccntury. Neither monsoon nor annual rainfall shows any significant trend. On average, there has been a rise in sea levels around India over recent decades, though considerable uncertainties exist in the accuracy and interpretation of the available data. Carbon emissions from the energy sector amount to 71 MT a year, equivalent to all other sectors combined. From land-use data, a marginal net sequestration of 5.25 million tonnes of carbon occurred during 1986. Following the IPCC guidelines, methane emissions from rice and livestock are estimated at 17.4 and 12.8 Tg/year, respectively. According to recent climate model projections, India may experience a further rise in temperature of 1 °C by the year 2050, about four times the rate of warming experienced over the past 100 years. A modest increase in precipitation amounts might occur. Cereals production is estimated to decrease and the nutrition security of the population-rich but land-hungry region of India might be hampered. An increase in local tropical cyclone activity may occur over thc next century, posing added problems as large areas in the coastal regions have a dense population. About 70% of the electricity generation in India is from coal-based power stations. Altering this dependence significantly to reduce emissions would imply a substantial change in the present energy policy of India. There is great potential for improving energy efficiency and conservation. The adoption of cleaner coal-technologies should be considered, as must the development of renewable, non-conventional energy

  11. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  12. Compliance of future emission regulations. Solutions made by MTU Friedrichshafen; Erfuellung kuenftiger Abgasemissionsvorschriften. Loesungen der MTU Friedrichshafen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dohle, U. [Tognum AG, Friedrichshafen (Germany); Schneemann, A.; Teetz, C.; Wintruff, I. [MTU Friedrichshafen GmbH, Friedrichshafen (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    Between 2011 and 2015, permissible levels of exhaust emissions for off-highway engines in Europe and in the USA will again be significantly reduced. Legislation covering the various applications and power ranges is extremely diverse. Engine manufacturers are responsible for developing different emissions-reduction methods for the individual markets in order to provide optimum solutions in areas such as fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. This article describes some of the technical concepts, both current and planned, which MTU Friedrichshafen will employ to align its present engine series with future legislation. Basicconfiguration engines are being toughened to withstand high ignition and injection pressures and further development is ongoing on cooled exhaust gas recirculation, the Miller process and 2-stage turbocharging. SCR technology and particulate filtration are also being introduced in individual cases and new control concepts will be employed to optimize interaction between the various subsystems. In the following, the solutions identified for selected applications are presented and discussed. (orig.)

  13. Designing policies for reducing future emissions of greenhouse gases in the People's Republic of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streets, D.G.; He Jiankun; Wu Zongxin

    1994-01-01

    The People's Republic of China gas recognized the importance of climate change concerns and has signed the Climate Change Convention, formulated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. China is now beginning the process of developing an appropriate response strategy for climate change. Several projects have been initiated that deal with various aspects of global climate change. The Asian Development Bank is assisting the Chinese Government in this endeavor by providing technical assistance under an agreement signed in August 1992. The Bank selected a team of international consultants, coordinated by the East-West Center in Hawaii and including Argonne National Laboratory and Japanese scientists, to work closely with Chinese scientists to develop information that would contribute to a national response strategy. The Chinese research team is led by scientists from Tsinghua University and includes specialists from a number of research institutes and government agencies, all under the aegis of the State Science and Technology Commission. This paper presents results from the study concerning the interrelationship among economic growth, energy use, and carbon dioxide emissions in China, The study shows that, despite rapid improvements in energy efficiency and development of nonfossil-fuel energy sources, it will be difficult to prevent a two to three-fold increase in carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2050

  14. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  15. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  16. Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

    2018-03-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

  17. Next allocation phase of the EU emissions trading scheme: How tough will the future be?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgopoulou, E.; Sarafidis, Y.; Mirasgedis, S.; Lalas, D.P.

    2006-01-01

    The development of National Allocation Plans (NAPs) for the first phase 2005-2007 of the EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) was accompanied by the stated concern of the industrial enterprises with installations that fall under the scope of the relevant Directive 2003/87, since the impacts of the allocation in their financial and technical modes of operation were judged to be severe. Thus, the intensity of the negotiations for the next allocation phase (i.e. 2008-2012), is expected to be heated. With a view to assisting enterprises, especially in the energy sector or for which energy use and its management is a crucial part of their activity, to incorporate in their business plans the impacts of the Directive in an informed manner, an attempt is made here to explore the constraints and the available options that will guide the coming EU-ETS potential allocations. In the analysis, the credits derived from the use of CDM are specifically taken into account. The results show that the next allocations would tend to be significantly more stringent than the current ones because of the combined effect of no inter-period transfer of allowances, the amount of CDM credits expected to be available compared to the amount of effort that would be required and the yield of emission reductions from existing or planned policies and measures. It becomes then crucial, if not imperative, for the enterprises involved as well as national governments to examine carefully means to address their obligations under the Directive

  18. N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  19. The potential of synthetic fuels to meet future emission regulations; Potenzial synthetischer Kraftstoffe zur Einhaltung zukuenftiger Emissionsgrenzwerte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrmann, H.O.; Keppeler, S.; Friess, W. [DaimlerChrysler AG, Stuttgart (Germany); Botha, J.J. [Sasol Technology (Pty) Ltd., Rosebank (South Africa); Schaberg, P. [Sasol Advanced Fuel Lab., Univ. of Cape Town (South Africa); Schnell, P. [Sasol Chevron Consulting Ltd., London (United Kingdom)

    2006-07-01

    The potential of GTL diesel fuel for further improving engine performance and reducing exhaust emissions beyond euro 4 was investigated in a Mercedes-Benz E320 CDI passenger car. Starting with the outlook on the production and properties of GTL fuel against the anticipated future diesel demand, the paper addresses the impacts of GTL diesel fuel on heavy-duty and light-duty engines. Based on preceding work on un-adapted engines, published in an earlier paper in 2004 at the 25{sup th} International Vienna Motor Symposium, the hardware configuration and software calibration of the E320 engine were now modified to better utilize the advantageous properties of the Sasol Chevron GTL diesel fuel. In order to keep engine changes at a minimum, hardware modifications were limited to lowering the compression ratio and optimizing the injection equipment. These hardware modifications required the adaptation of the engine software calibration, such as injection system parameters, boost pressure adjustment, and EGR rates. It has been shown that, by detailed bench work and chassis dynamometer testing, the vehicle, which is equipped with a DPF and has a euro 4 calibration in its original form, can comply with the very stringent nitrogen oxides emission limits of 0.08 g/km (NEDC) when moderately modified and operated on GTL diesel fuel. This was achieved without any active nitrogen oxides exhaust gas aftertreatment. This establishes a very promising outlook for a cost-efficient means for reducing exhaust emissions, and again highlights the benefits that may be obtained with cleaner fuels (GTL diesel fuel is free of sulfur and aromatics and has a cetane number > 70). The paper presents details of the fuel, the engine modifications and the test results obtained so far. (orig.)

  20. On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2009-01-01

    The recent implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in January 2005 created new financial risks for emitting firms. To deal with these risks, options are traded since October 2006. Because the EU ETS is a new market, the relevant underlying model for option pricing is still a controversial issue. This article improves our understanding of this issue by characterizing the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures contract in the European Climate Exchange (ECX), which is valid during Phase II (2008-2012) of the EU ETS. The realized volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and sub-sampling estimators are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and dynamic properties of the ECX emissions futures volatility. The distribution of the daily realized volatility in logarithmic form is shown to be close to normal. The mixture-of-distributions hypothesis is strongly rejected, as the returns standardized using daily measures of volatility clearly departs from normality. A simplified HAR-RV model (Corsi, 2009) with only a weekly component, which reproduces long memory properties of the series, is then used to model the volatility dynamics. Finally, the predictive accuracy of the HAR-RV model is tested against GARCH specifications using one-step-ahead forecasts, which confirms the HAR-RV superior ability. Our conclusions indicate that (i) the standard Brownian motion is not an adequate tool for option pricing in the EU ETS, and (ii) a jump component should be included in the stochastic process to price options, thus providing more efficient tools for risk-management activities. (authors)

  1. Impact of technology on the utilisation of positron emission tomography in lymphoma: current and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Visvikis, D.; Ell, P.J.

    2003-01-01

    The study of new radiolabelled ligands will impose further demands for rapid dynamic data acquisition and accurate tracer quantification. Current and future developments in PET technology range from the use of new detector materials to different detector geometries and data acquisition modes. The search for alternatives to BGO scintillation materials for PET has led to the development of PET instruments utilising new crystals such as LSO and GSO. The use of these new detectors and the increased sensitivity achieved with 3D data acquisitions represent the most significant current developments in the field. With the increasing demands imposed on the clinical utilisation of PET, issues such as study cost and patient throughput will emerge as significant future factors. As a consequence, low-cost units are being offered by the manufacturers through the utilisation of gamma camera-based SPET systems for PET coincidence imaging. Unfortunately, clinical studies in lymphoma and other cancers have already demonstrated the limitations of this technology, with 20% of lesions <15 mm in size escaping detection. On the other hand, the recent development of combined PET/CT devices attempts to address the lack of anatomical information inherent with PET images, taking advantage of further improvement in patient throughput and hence cost-effectiveness. Preliminary studies using this multimodality imaging approach have already demonstrated the potential of the technique. Although the potential exists, certain technical issues with PET/CT require refinement of the methodology. Such issues include organ movement (such as respiratory motion), which strongly influences the image fusion of a rapidly acquired CT scan with the slower acquisition of a PET dataset, and the derivation of CT-based attenuation coefficients in the presence of contrast agents or metallic implants. The application of the technology for radiotherapy planning also poses a number of associated challenges. Finally

  2. The impacts of future climate change and sulphur emission reductions on acidification recovery at Plastic Lake, Ontario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Aherne

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate-induced drought events have a significant influence on sulphate export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying the recovery of surface waters from acidification. In the current study, a model chain that employed a statistical downscaling model, a hydrological model and two hydrochemical models was used to forecast the chemical recovery of Plastic Lake sub-catchment 1 (PC1 from acidification under proposed deposition reductions and the A2 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Any predicted recovery in stream acid neutralising capacity and pH owing to deposition reductions were clearly offset by large acid effluxes from climate-induced drought events. By 2100, ANC is predicted to show large variations ranging between 10 and −30 μmolc L−1. Similarly, predicted pH in 2100 is lower (>0.05 of a pH unit than the value simulated for 2000 (pH 4.35. Despite emission reductions, the future scenario paints a bleak picture of reacidification at PC1 to levels commensurate with those of the late 1970s. The principal process behind this reacidification is the oxidation of previously stored (reduced sulphur compounds in wetlands during periods of low-flow (or drought, with subsequent efflux of sulphate upon re-wetting. Simulated catchment runoff under the A2 emissions scenario predictes increased intensity and frequency of low-flow events from approximately 2030 onwards. The Integrated Catchments model for Carbon indicated that stream DOC concentrations at PC1 will also increase under the future climate scenario, with temperature being the principal driver. Despite the predicted (significant increase in DOC, pH is not predicted to further decline (beyond the climate-induced oxidation scenario, instead pH shows greater variability throughout the simulation. As echoed by many recent studies, hydrochemical models and model frameworks need to incorporate the drivers

  3. Investigating the Impact of Past and Future CO2 Emissions on the Distribution of Radiocarbon in the Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatiwala, S.; Payne, S.; Graven, H. D.; Heimbach, P.

    2015-12-01

    The ocean is a significant sink for carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. This has implications not only for climate but also for the chemical and isotopic composition of the ocean. Human activities have increased the ocean radiocarbon content through nuclear bomb tests in the 1950s-60s, which released a large amount of radiocarbon (14C) into the atmosphere, but fossil fuel emissions are decreasing the radiocarbon content through the release of 14C-depleted CO2. Here, we use the ECCO-v4 ocean state estimate to examine the changing nature of the air-sea flux of radiocarbon and its spatial distribution in the ocean in response to past and future CO2 emissions, the latter taken from the the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) database used in IPCC simulations. In line with previous studies we find that the large air-sea gradient of 14C induced by nuclear bomb testing led to rapid accumulation of radiocarbon in the surface ocean. Surface fluxes of 14C have considerably weakened over the past several decades and in some areas 14C is being returned to the atmosphere. As fossil fuel emissions continue to reduce the atmospheric 14C/C ratio (Δ14C), in most RCP scenarios the total ocean 14C inventory starts decreasing by 2030. With strong emissions, the Δ14C of surface waters is driven to increasingly negative values and in RCP 8.5 by 2100 much of the surface ocean has apparent radiocarbon ages in excess of 2000 years, with subtropical gyres more depleted in 14C than the Southern Ocean. Surface waters become significantly more negative in Δ14C than underlying waters. As a result, turning conventional tracer oceanography on its head, recently ventilated waters are characterized by more negative Δ14C values. Similar patterns can be expected for CFCs in the ocean as atmospheric concentrations decrease over the next several decades. Our results have a number of implications, notably for

  4. U.S. Near-Zero Emissions Program: CCS - Clean Coal R&D, FutureGen, & Demonstrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K Der, Victor [Department of Energy (United States)

    2008-07-15

    In this paper a projection of the CO{sub 2} emissions in the United States is shown; the technical challenges in the capture and sequestration of the CO{sub 2}; what is understood by carbon sequestration; the three elements of the capture and CO{sub 2} storage that are: capture, transport, and storage; the FutureGen project; plants of coal combustion with sequestration, and at the end an initiative for the generation with clean coal is presented. [Spanish] En esta ponencia se muestra una proyeccion de las emisiones de CO{sub 2} en los Estados Unidos; los retos tecnicos en la captura y secuestro de CO{sub 2}; que entendemos por secuestro de carbono; los tres elementos de la captura y almacenamiento de CO{sub 2} que son captura, transporte y almacenamiento; el proyecto FutureGen; plantas de combustion de carbon con secuestro, y al final se presenta una iniciativa para la generacion con carbon limpio.

  5. 'Capture ready' regulation of fossil fuel power plants - Betting the UK's carbon emissions on promises of future technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markusson, Nils; Haszeldine, Stuart

    2010-01-01

    Climate change legislation requires emissions reductions, but the market shows interest in investing in new fossil fuelled power plants. The question is whether capture ready policy can reconcile these interests. The term 'capture ready' has been used a few years by the UK Government when granting licences for fossil fuelled power plants, but only recently has the meaning of the term been defined. The policy has been promoted as a step towards CCS and as an insurance against carbon lock-in. This paper draws on literature on technology lock-in and on regulation of technology undergoing development. Further, versions of the capture readiness concept proposed to date are compared. Capture readiness requirements beyond the minimum criterion of space on the site for capture operations are explored. This includes integration of capture and power plant, downstream operations, overall system integration and regulation of future retrofitting. Capture readiness comes with serious uncertainties and is no guarantee that new-built fossil plants will be abatable or abated in the future. As a regulatory strategy, it has been over-promised in the UK.

  6. Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

    2018-07-01

    Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO x , VOC, and NH 3 , while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO 2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations. Copyright © 2018

  7. Historical and future land use effects on N2O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiners, W. A.; Liu, S.; Gerow, K. G.; Keller, M.; Schimel, D. S.

    2002-12-01

    The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N2O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N2O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well-documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N2O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.

  8. Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. F. Lam

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone, the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction, except for the Northeast area, where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10 % or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8 over the Eastern United States. For PM2.5, the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect, where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM2.5 reductions. The annual average 24-h PM2.5 of the future-year condition was found to be about 40 % lower than the one from the present-year condition, of which 60 % of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO4 and NO3 particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5–10 % or 3–5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely, it reduces the annual average PM2.5 by 5 % or 1.0 μg m−3 in the Southeast region.

  9. Constructing a sustainable power sector in China: current and future emissions of coal-fired power plants from 2010 to 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, D.; Zhang, Q.

    2017-12-01

    As the largest energy infrastructure in China, power sector consumed more coal than any other sector and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement target. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants in China during 2010-2030 and the evolution of associated emissions for the same period by using a unit-based emission projection model which integrated the historical power plants information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and the evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by the stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions from China's coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24% respectively during 2010-2015, comparing to 14% increase of coal consumption and 15% increase in CO2 emissions. We estimated that under current national energy development planning, coal consumption and CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will continue to increase until 2030, in which against the China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) targets. Early retirement of old and low-efficient power plants will cumulatively reduce 2.2 Pg CO2 emissions from the baseline scenario during 2016-2030, but still could not curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of "near zero" emission control policy, we projected that emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during the same period under all scenarios, indicating the decoupling trends of air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Although with limited direct emission reduction benefits, increasing operating hours of power plants could avoid 236 GW of new power plants construction, which could indirectly reduce emissions embodied in the construction activity. Our results identified a more sustainable pathway for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce air pollutant emissions, improve the energy efficiency, and slow down the construction of new units. However, continuous

  10. Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

    2017-12-01

    Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

  11. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.; McKenzie, E.; Tao, W.; Vimmerstedt, L.

    2013-03-01

    Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  12. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); DeFlorio, J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); McKenzie, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Tao, W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  13. Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United

  14. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Simpson, David; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin D.; Landgren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to -3 % (-1.4 ppb). This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India

  15. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pommier

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030 and medium-term (2050 futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3 and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r =  0.9 and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r =  0.5 and r =  0.8 depending on the data set between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %, the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb and one in the south by a decrease up to −3 % (−1.4 ppb. This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo

  16. Mercury emissions from municipal solid waste combustors. An assessment of the current situation in the United States and forecast of future emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1993-05-01

    This report examines emissions of mercury (Hg) from municipal solid waste (MSW) combustion in the United States (US). It is projected that total annual nationwide MSW combustor emissions of mercury could decrease from about 97 tonnes (1989 baseline uncontrolled emissions) to less than about 4 tonnes in the year 2000. This represents approximately a 95 percent reduction in the amount of mercury emitted from combusted MSW compared to the 1989 mercury emissions baseline. The likelihood that routinely achievable mercury emissions removal efficiencies of about 80 percent or more can be assured; it is estimated that MSW combustors in the US could prove to be a comparatively minor source of mercury emissions after about 1995. This forecast assumes that diligent measures to control mercury emissions, such as via use of supplemental control technologies (e.g., carbon adsorption), are generally employed at that time. However, no present consensus was found that such emissions control measures can be implemented industry-wide in the US within this time frame. Although the availability of technology is apparently not a limiting factor, practical implementation of necessary control technology may be limited by administrative constraints and other considerations (e.g., planning, budgeting, regulatory compliance requirements, etc.). These projections assume that: (a) about 80 percent mercury emissions reduction control efficiency is achieved with air pollution control equipment likely to be employed by that time; (b) most cylinder-shaped mercury-zinc (CSMZ) batteries used in hospital applications can be prevented from being disposed into the MSW stream or are replaced with alternative batteries that do not contain mercury; and (c) either the amount of mercury used in fluorescent lamps is decreased to an industry-wide average of about 27 milligrams of mercury per lamp or extensive diversion from the MSW stream of fluorescent lamps that contain mercury is accomplished.

  17. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  18. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou Xunmin, E-mail: oxm07@mails.tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Xiliang, E-mail: zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Chang Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  19. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport. Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou, Xunmin [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Xiliang; Chang, Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology. (author)

  20. Estimating U.S. Methane Emissions from the Natural Gas Supply Chain. Approaches, Uncertainties, Current Estimates, and Future Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heath, Garvin [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Brandt, Adam [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    A growing number of studies have raised questions regarding uncertainties in our understanding of methane (CH4) emissions from fugitives and venting along the natural gas (NG) supply chain. In particular, a number of measurement studies have suggested that actual levels of CH4 emissions may be higher than estimated by EPA" tm s U.S. GHG Emission Inventory. We reviewed the literature to identify the growing number of studies that have raised questions regarding uncertainties in our understanding of methane (CH4) emissions from fugitives and venting along the natural gas (NG) supply chain.

  1. Possible future petroleum activity around Jan Mayen. Consequences of emissions to air.; Aapning av havomraadene ved Jan Mayen for petroleumsvirksomhet. Konsekvenser av regulaere utslipp til luft.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solberg, Sverre; Svendby, Tove; Gjerstad, Karl Idar; Liu, Li; Wathne, Bente M.; Skjelkvaale, Brit Lisa; Hoegaasen, Tore; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Gjershaug, Jan Ove

    2012-07-01

    Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) and the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) have considered the effects on the environment of emissions of NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and particulate matter into the air from any future petroleum activity in the waters around Jan Mayen. It is estimated deposition of nitrogen, sulfur and particulates - also formation of ozone is calculated. It is also considered what effect it has on nature. Calculations indicate that emissions most likely will not lead to negative effects on vegetation and fauna of the terrestrial impact area. (Author)

  2. Volatility spillovers and causality of carbon emissions, oil and coal spot and futures for the EU and USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Zuo, G. (Guangdong)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractRecent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest

  3. Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); G. Zuo (Guandong)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractRecent research shows that efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source

  4. Fundamental and future prospects of printed ambipolar fluorene-type polymer light-emitting transistors for improved external quantum efficiency, mobility, and emission pattern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajii, Hirotake

    2018-05-01

    In this review, we focus on the improved external quantum efficiency, field-effect mobility, and emission pattern of top-gate-type polymer light-emitting transistors (PLETs) based on ambipolar fluorene-type polymers. A low-temperature, high-efficiency, printable red phosphorescent PLET based on poly(alkylfluorene) with modified alkyl side chains fabricated by a film transfer process is demonstrated. Device fabrication based on oriented films leads to an improved EL intensity owing to the increase in field-effect mobility. There are three factors that affect the transport of carriers, i.e., the energy level, threshold voltage, and mobility of each layer for heterostructure PLETs, which result in various emission patterns such as the line-shaped, multicolor and in-plane emission pattern in the full-channel area between source and drain electrodes. Fundamentals and future prospects in heterostructure devices are discussed and reviewed.

  5. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Mark; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J

    2018-02-20

    This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO 2 e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H 2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO 2 e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO 2 /mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO 2e /mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

  6. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

    2018-01-30

    This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

  7. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

    2018-01-30

    This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025–2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300–350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25–$1.00/mi depending on timeframe and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60–90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

  8. Emissions implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and in the Rocky Mountain region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Jeffrey D; Brinkman, Gregory L; Milford, Jana B

    2014-11-18

    Enhanced prospects for natural gas production raise questions about the balance of impacts on air quality, as increased emissions from production activities are considered alongside the reductions expected when natural gas is burned in place of other fossil fuels. This study explores how trends in natural gas production over the coming decades might affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) for the United States and its Rocky Mountain region. The MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) energy system optimization model is used with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's nine-region database to compare scenarios for natural gas supply and demand, constraints on the electricity generation mix, and GHG emissions fees. Through 2050, total energy system GHG emissions show little response to natural gas supply assumptions, due to offsetting changes across sectors. Policy-driven constraints or emissions fees are needed to achieve net reductions. In most scenarios, wind is a less expensive source of new electricity supplies in the Rocky Mountain region than natural gas. U.S. NOx emissions decline in all the scenarios considered. Increased VOC emissions from natural gas production offset part of the anticipated reductions from the transportation sector, especially in the Rocky Mountain region.

  9. CO2 emissions in Croatia in 2050: what is the pathway to a low-carbon future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozicevic Vrhovcak, M.; Rogulj, I.

    2015-01-01

    The article deals with carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector in the Republic of Croatia by 2050. Based on the projections of energy supply and demand of all consumption sectors and corresponding CO2 emissions, an interactive platform was developed that clearly connects consequences of certain decisions and choices and the total greenhouse gas emissions. The developed tool allows for simple comparisons of different development options in terms of CO2 emissions and is an important tool for understanding the complexity of the transition to a low carbon society. Input data were collected and the platform was developed under the IPA project South East Europe Sustainable Energy Policy, which is being implemented from 2011 to 2016. (author).

  10. Quantification of uncertainty associated with United States high resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions: updates, challenges and future plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurney, K. R.; Chandrasekaran, V.; Mendoza, D. L.; Geethakumar, S.

    2010-12-01

    The Vulcan Project has estimated United States fossil fuel CO2 emissions at the hourly time scale and at spatial scales below the county level for the year 2002. Vulcan is built from a wide variety of observational data streams including regulated air pollutant emissions reporting, traffic monitoring, energy statistics, and US census data. In addition to these data sets, Vulcan relies on a series of modeling assumptions and constructs to interpolate in space, time and transform non-CO2 reporting into an estimate of CO2 combustion emissions. The recent version 2.0 of the Vulcan inventory has produced advances in a number of categories with particular emphasis on improved temporal structure. Onroad transportation emissions now avail of roughly 5000 automated traffic count monitors allowing for much improved diurnal and weekly time structure in our onroad transportation emissions. Though the inventory shows excellent agreement with independent national-level CO2 emissions estimates, uncertainty quantification has been a challenging task given the large number of data sources and numerous modeling assumptions. However, we have now accomplished a complete uncertainty estimate across all the Vulcan economic sectors and will present uncertainty estimates as a function of space, time, sector and fuel. We find that, like the underlying distribution of CO2 emissions themselves, the uncertainty is also strongly lognormal with high uncertainty associated with a relatively small number of locations. These locations typically are locations reliant upon coal combustion as the dominant CO2 source. We will also compare and contrast Vulcan fossil fuel CO2 emissions estimates against estimates built from DOE fuel-based surveys at the state level. We conclude that much of the difference between the Vulcan inventory and DOE statistics are not due to biased estimation but mechanistic differences in supply versus demand and combustion in space/time.

  11. Uncertainty in the Future Distribution of Tropospheric Ozone over West Africa due to Variability in Anthropogenic Emissions Estimates between 2025 and 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Particle and trace gas emissions due to anthropogenic activity are expected to increase significantly in West Africa over the next few decades due to rising population and more energy intensive lifestyles. Here we perform 3D global chemistry-transport model calculations for 2025 and 2050 using both a “business-as-usual” (A1B and “clean economy” (B1 future anthropogenic emission scenario to focus on the changes in the distribution and uncertainties associated with tropospheric O3 due to the various projected emission scenarios. When compared to the present-day troposphere we find that there are significant increases in tropospheric O3 for the A1B emission scenario, with the largest increases being located in the lower troposphere near the source regions and into the Sahel around 15–20°N. In part this increase is due to more efficient NOx re-cycling related to increases in the background methane concentrations. Examining the uncertainty across different emission inventories reveals that there is an associated uncertainty of up to ~20% in the predicted increases at 2025 and 2050. For the upper troposphere, where increases in O3 have a more pronounced impact on radiative forcing, the uncertainty is influenced by transport of O3 rich air from Asia on the Tropical Easterly Jet.

  12. Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part II: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

    2018-07-01

    In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the "Technology Driver Model" (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x  = NO + NO 2 ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O 3 ) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NO x compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O 3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM 2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO 2 and O 3 , respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH 4 changes to dominate the increases in O 3 , while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM 2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NO x , and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH 3 , SO 2 , and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong

  13. Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

    2017-04-01

    In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

  14. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emission and energy use of bioethanol produced from corn stover in China: Current perspectives and future prospectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin; Chang, Shiyan

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a life cycle analysis (LCA) of bioethanol production from corn stover is carried out under Chinese context. Three scenarios were developed and assessed based on current and future technology levels of the ethanol conversion process. Well-to-pump (WTP) and well-to-wheels (WTW) results are presented in this paper via functional units of 1 MJ of ethanol produced, 1 MJ of E100 produced and used, and 1 km of distance driven by a light-duty vehicle on E10 fuel, respectively. It was calculated that for 1 MJ of E100, the WTW Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction relative to gasoline reaches 52%–55%, and the savings of fossil fuel and petroleum fuel reach 72%–76% and 74%–85%, respectively. For 1 MJ of ethanol produced, GHG emissions occurred in ethanol conversion process account for 51%–55%, and the contribution of chemical inputs reaches 36%–37% of the total life cycle GHG emissions. Furthermore, the life cycle results were found to be highly sensitive to allocation methods. - Highlights: • The study is focused on 2 G bioethanol derived from corn stover in Chinese context. • LCA is based on both current and future technology levels for ethanol conversion. • The life cycle GHG emission reduction of E100 relative to gasoline reaches 52%–55%. • Contributions of chemicals account for 36%–37% of life cycle GHG emissions. • E100 saves 74%–85% of petroleum fuel during its life cycle production and use.

  15. Top-down model estimates, bottom-up inventories, and future projections of global natural and anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, E. A.; Kanter, D.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas and the largest remaining emitted ozone depleting substance. It is a product of nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria in soils, sediments and water bodies. Humans began to disrupt the N cycle in the preindustrial era as they expanded agricultural land, used fire for land clearing and management, and cultivated leguminous crops that carry out biological N fixation. This disruption accelerated after the industrial revolution, especially as the use of synthetic N fertilizers became common after 1950. Here we present findings from a new United Nations Environment Programme report, in which we constrain estimates of the anthropogenic and natural emissions of N2O and consider scenarios for future emissions. Inventory-based estimates of natural emissions from terrestrial, marine and atmospheric sources range from 10 to 12 Tg N2O-N/yr. Similar values can be derived for global N2O emissions that were predominantly natural before the industrial revolution. While there was inter-decadal variability, there was little or no consistent trend in atmospheric N2O concentrations between 1730 and 1850, allowing us to assume near steady state. Assuming an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years, the 'top-down' estimate of pre-industrial emissions of 11 Tg N2O-N/yr is consistent with the bottom-up inventories for natural emissions, although the former includes some modest pre-industrial anthropogenic effects (probably business-as-usual scenarios over the period 2013-2050 is ~102 Tg N2O-N; equivalent to ~48 Gt CO2e or ~2730 kt ozone depleting potential. The impact of growing demand for biofuels is highly uncertain, ranging from trivial to the most significant N2O source to date, depending on the types of plants, their nutrient management, the amount of land used for their cultivation, and the fates of their waste products.

  16. Impacts of Future Climate, Emission, and Land Use Changes on Aerosols and Air Quality over the Continental

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in climate, emission, and land use in the U.S. over the next century are imminent. The response of geologic, biogenic, and anthropogenic aerosol to interactions between these changes, however, are more uncertain and difficult to quantify. To explore these interactions, ...

  17. Future premature mortality due to O3, secondary inorganic aerosols and primary PM in Europe--sensitivity to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, population and building stock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geels, Camilla; Andersson, Camilla; Hänninen, Otto; Lansø, Anne Sofie; Schwarze, Per E; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-03-04

    Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000-2009, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

  18. Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geels, Camilla; Andersson, Camilla; Hänninen, Otto; Lansø, Anne Sofie; Schwarze, Per E.; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future. PMID:25749320

  19. Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Geels

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

  20. The future of airborne sulfur-containing particles in the absence of fossil fuel sulfur dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perraud, Véronique; Horne, Jeremy R; Martinez, Andrew S; Kalinowski, Jaroslaw; Meinardi, Simone; Dawson, Matthew L; Wingen, Lisa M; Dabdub, Donald; Blake, Donald R; Gerber, R Benny; Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J

    2015-11-03

    Sulfuric acid (H2SO4), formed from oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted during fossil fuel combustion, is a major precursor of new airborne particles, which have well-documented detrimental effects on health, air quality, and climate. Another precursor is methanesulfonic acid (MSA), produced simultaneously with SO2 during the atmospheric oxidation of organosulfur compounds (OSCs), such as dimethyl sulfide. In the present work, a multidisciplinary approach is used to examine how contributions of H2SO4 and MSA to particle formation will change in a large coastal urban area as anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions of SO2 decline. The 3-dimensional University of California Irvine-California Institute of Technology airshed model is used to compare atmospheric concentrations of gas phase MSA, H2SO4, and SO2 under current emissions of fossil fuel-associated SO2 and a best-case futuristic scenario with zero fossil fuel sulfur emissions. Model additions include results from (i) quantum chemical calculations that clarify the previously uncertain gas phase mechanism of formation of MSA and (ii) a combination of published and experimental estimates of OSC emissions, such as those from marine, agricultural, and urban processes, which include pet waste and human breath. Results show that in the zero anthropogenic SO2 emissions case, particle formation potential from H2SO4 will drop by about two orders of magnitude compared with the current situation. However, particles will continue to be generated from the oxidation of natural and anthropogenic sources of OSCs, with contributions from MSA and H2SO4 of a similar order of magnitude. This could be particularly important in agricultural areas where there are significant sources of OSCs.

  1. The future of fully automated vehicles : opportunities for vehicle- and ride-sharing, with cost and emissions savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Fully automated or autonomous vehicles (AVs) hold great promise for the future of transportation. By 2020 : Google, auto manufacturers and other technology providers intend to introduce self-driving cars to the public with : either limited or fully a...

  2. European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) Futures Liquidity Effects: Evidence from the European Energy Exchange (EEX)

    OpenAIRE

    Ibikunle, Gbenga; Gregoriou, Andros

    2011-01-01

    We examine liquidity effects after the onset of trading in phase II of the EU-ETS for European Union Allowance (EUA) futures contracts. We obtain evidence of long-term improvement in liquidity of the EEX EUA December 2008 futures contract after the commencement of trading in phase II. Our results suggest the application of a new regime of trading rules in Phase II led to the improvements in liquidity.

  3. Kvalitet budućih ulja za motore niskih emisija / Future lubricants quality for low emission engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radinko Gligorijević

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available U tekućoj dekadi ovog milenijima proizvođači motora moraju postići dvostruko smanjenje potrošnje goriva, pa time i emisije CO2 i desetostruko smanjenje nivoa emisija, pre svega NOX i čestica. Za dostizanje tog cilja moraju se razviti nove specifikacije ulja, čiji doprinos smanjenju potrošnje goriva i nivou štetnih emisija postaje sve važniji. Trend razvoja ulja kreće se u pravcu nižih viskoznih gradacija sa nižim sadržajem sumpora, fosfora, sulfatnog pepela i nižom isparljivošću, čime se postiže smanjenje emisije, kao i potrošnje goriva. / In the current decade of this millennium automobile manufacturers must achieve an additional twofold increase in fuel efficiency and a tenfold reduction of emission of CO2 and pollutants, especially NOX and particles. To achieve this goal, a new specification of engine lubricants, whose contribution to fuel efficiency and reduction of emissions cannot be neglected, is to be developed. Development trends in lubricants move towards low viscosity, low content of sulfur, phosphorus, sulfate ash and low volatility, resulting in emission reduction and increase of fuel efficiency.

  4. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C

    2014-09-23

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

  5. Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Kooten, G Cornelis; Duan, Jun; Lynch, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%.

  6. Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jun; Lynch, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%. PMID:27902712

  7. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.

    2014-01-01

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing. PMID:25201962

  8. High-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy with transition-edge sensors: present performance and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uhlig, J.; Doriese, W. B.; Fowler, J. W.; Swetz, D. S.; Jaye, C.; Fischer, D. A.; Reintsema, C. D.; Bennett, D. A.; Vale, L. R.; Mandal, U.; O' Neil, G. C.; Miaja-Avila, L.; Joe, Y. I.; El Nahhas, A.; Fullagar, W.; Parnefjord Gustafsson, F.; Sundström, V.; Kurunthu, D.; Hilton, G. C.; Schmidt, D. R.; Ullom, J. N.

    2015-04-21

    X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) is a powerful element-selective tool to analyze the oxidation states of atoms in complex compounds, determine their electronic configuration, and identify unknown compounds in challenging environments. Until now the low efficiency of wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectrometer technology has limited the use of XES, especially in combination with weaker laboratory X-ray sources. More efficient energy-dispersive detectors have either insufficient energy resolution because of the statistical limits described by Fano or too low counting rates to be of practical use. This paper updates an approach to high-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy that uses a microcalorimeter detector array of superconducting transition-edge sensors (TESs). TES arrays are discussed and compared with conventional methods, and shown under which circumstances they are superior. It is also shown that a TES array can be integrated into a table-top time-resolved X-ray source and a soft X-ray synchrotron beamline to perform emission spectroscopy with good chemical sensitivity over a very wide range of energies.

  9. Future energy loads for a large-scale adoption of electric vehicles in the city of Los Angeles: Impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jae D.; Rahimi, Mansour

    2014-01-01

    Using plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has become an important component of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategy in the transportation sector. Assessing the net effect of PEVs on GHG emissions, however, is dependent on factors such as type and scale of electricity generation sources, adoption rate, and charging behavior. This study creates a comprehensive model that estimates the energy load and GHG emissions impacts for the years 2020 and 2030 for the city of Los Angeles. For 2020, model simulations show that the PEV charging loads will be modest with negligible effects on the overall system load profile. Contrary to previous study results, the average marginal carbon intensity is higher if PEV charging occurs during off-peak hours. These results suggest that current economic incentives to encourage off-peak charging result in greater GHG emissions. Model simulations for 2030 show that PEV charging loads increase significantly resulting in potential generation shortages. There are also significant grid operation challenges as the region's energy grid is required to ramp up and down rapidly to meet PEV loads. For 2030, the average marginal carbon intensity for off-peak charging becomes lower than peak charging mainly due to the removal of coal from the power generation portfolio. - Highlights: • Future energy load from PEV charging in the city of Los Angeles is modeled. • Changes in the marginal carbon intensity of the region's electric grid are modeled. • In the short run, offpeak charging results in higher marginal carbon intensity. • There is a mismatch between emissions and economic incentives for charging

  10. Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Zhang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China, analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives.

  11. Mitigation of emissions from wildfires in Australia: potential for use of managed prescribed fire in eucalypt dominated vegetation, present and future. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradstock, R.; Price, O.; Williams, D.; Hutley, L.

    2010-12-01

    under contemporary management, fuel consumption and the volume of emissions may increase with increasing rates of prescribed burning. This has further implications for carbon storage in these forests. In eucalypt forests, current losses of carbon in wildfires appear to be offset by storage during the interval between wildfires. Future increases in the rate of intense wildfires as a result of climate change, have the potential to adversely disrupt this balance and pose a challenge to management. The ideal mix of management measures (i.e. prevention and suppression) required to counter the possibility of a degradation of significant carbon storage in Australian forests is yet to be resolved and will require a better understanding of how differing fuel treatment and suppression options can perform to best effect. By contrast the scope for management of emissions from fires in savanna woodlands is high, though their low potential for storage of carbon is also vulnerable to degradation by wildfires in the future.

  12. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  13. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  14. Radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas emission and sink histories in Finland and its future control potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I; Sinisalo, J; Pipatti, R [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The effective atmospheric lifetimes of the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}),nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and many of the CFCs are of the order of 100 years. Human activities, as an example GDP, very often change at rates of a few per cents per year,corresponding time constants of some tens of years. Also the forest ecosystems have time constants of this order. Even the human population of the globe is increasing by about two percent per year. Because so many natural and human-linked processes, which are relevant to global warming, have slow change rates of about same order, a time-dependent consideration of the greenhouse warming and its control can give useful information for the understanding of the problem. The objective of the work is to study the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks in Finland and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of radiative forcing which describes the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. The idea behind the calculations is that Finland should in some way steer its share of the global radiative forcing and greenhouse effect. This presentation describes the calculation model REFUGE and the projects in which it has been used

  15. Radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas emission and sink histories in Finland and its future control potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1995-12-31

    The effective atmospheric lifetimes of the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}),nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and many of the CFCs are of the order of 100 years. Human activities, as an example GDP, very often change at rates of a few per cents per year,corresponding time constants of some tens of years. Also the forest ecosystems have time constants of this order. Even the human population of the globe is increasing by about two percent per year. Because so many natural and human-linked processes, which are relevant to global warming, have slow change rates of about same order, a time-dependent consideration of the greenhouse warming and its control can give useful information for the understanding of the problem. The objective of the work is to study the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks in Finland and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of radiative forcing which describes the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. The idea behind the calculations is that Finland should in some way steer its share of the global radiative forcing and greenhouse effect. This presentation describes the calculation model REFUGE and the projects in which it has been used

  16. The PolicyRelevance of WearEmissions fromRoad Transport,Nowand in the Future-An InternationalWorkshop Report and Consensus Statement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Gerlofs-Nijland, M.E.; Gehrig, R.; Gustafsson, M.; Janssen, N.; Harrison, R.M.; Hulskotte, J.; Johansson, C.; Jozwicka, M.; Keuken, M.; Krijgsheld, K.; Ntziachristos, L.; Riediker, M.; Cassee, F.R.

    2013-01-01

    Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust

  17. Land use efficiency: anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A; Crossman, Neville D; Nolan, Martin; Li, Jing; Navarro, Javier; Connor, Jeffery D

    2015-11-01

    Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Opportunity for offshore wind to reduce future demand for coal-fired power plants in China with consequent savings in emissions of CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Chen, Xinyu; Kang, Chongqing

    2014-12-16

    Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a nondispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.

  19. Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

    2018-03-01

    The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

  20. Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karali, Nihan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Park, Won Young [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McNeil, Michael A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-06-18

    Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in the future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO2 emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically

  1. Volatile emissions from Cascade cinder cone eruptions: Implications for future hazard assessments in the Central and Southern Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, L. K.; Wallace, P. J.; Cashman, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    the Central Oregon Cascades are (averages from each cone): 700-1190 ppm S; 480-1115 ppm Cl; 120-280 ppm F; and for Northern California: 620-1100 ppm S; 305-445 ppm Cl; 130-240 ppm F. Maximum values for the two regions are 1610 ppm S, 1490 ppm Cl, and 440 ppm F. The majority of studies on health hazards from inhalation or ingestion of volcanic aerosols are centered on livestock; therefore not much is known of the effects on humans. This emphasizes the importance of such a study in a volcanically active region. Levels of volcanic aerosols are considered "hazardous" and to "pose a hazardous risk" to surrounding agricultural and residential communities if concentrations are elevated above World Health Organization (WHO) or Occupational Safety and Health Administration maximum exposure limits (OSHA) (SO2: 7 ppm for a 24-hr period; HCl: 5 ppm for a 24-hr period; HF: 3 ppm for a 10-hr period). By assessing volatile concentrations from past eruptions we can better constrain the probable volatile hazards future cinder cone eruptions pose to surrounding agricultural and residential communities near the Cascades.

  2. Is hybridic positron emission tomography/computerized tomography the only option? The future of nuclear medicine and molecular imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grammaticos, Philip; Zerva, Cherry; Asteriadis, Ioannis; Trontzos, Christos; Hatziioannou, Kostas

    2007-01-01

    sources of radiation" b) nuclear radiation and c) molecular nuclear medicine. The "European Journal of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging" shall have to erase the three last words of its title and be renamed. As Professor Abass Alavi et al (2007), have mentioned: "Is PET/CT the only option?" In favor of PET/CT are the following: Attenuation correction (AC) and better anatomical localization of lesions visualized with PET. Also PET/CT can be used as a diagnostic CT scanner (dCT). Against using the PET/CT scanners are the following arguments: a) This equipment is not necessary because we can always ask the Radiologists for a dCT scan. Many patients have already done a dCT scan at the time they are referred for a PET scan to the Nuclear Medicine Department. b) The absolute clinical indications for PET/CT with the use of a contrast agent, are under investigation. c) Although there is at present a list of indications suggested for the PET/CT scanner, there are studies disputing some of these indications, as for example in metastatic colon cancer where a high diagnostic accuracy for PET study alone, has been reported. d) The option of AC performed by the PET/CT scanner has also been questioned. Artifacts may be up to 84%. e) The PET/CT is expensive, time consuming, space occupying, and needs additional medical and technical personnel. f) Not to mention the extra radiation dose to the patients. g) Shall we inform those young medical students who wish to become nuclear medicine physicians, to hold their decision till the content of future Nuclear Medicine is clarified? We may suggest that: Our specialty could be renamed as: "Clinical Nuclear Medicine" and include additional "proper certified education" on the PET/CT equipment. The PET/CT scanner should remain in the Nuclear Medicine Department where Radiologists could act as advisors.

  3. What is the fast track to future energy systems with lower CO2 emissions? Main findings and recommendations from Workshop on Future Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, 19 - 20 November 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soenderberg Petersen, L.; Larsen, Hans (eds.)

    2009-04-15

    As part of the DTU Climate Change Technologies programme, DTU arranges a series of workshops and conferences on climate change technology focusing on assessment of and adaptation to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses (GHG). Each workshop target a specific problem area. This workshop focuses on the challenges for the future energy system from a Danish perspective as well as world wide with regard to both technology needs and policy measures with particular focus on identifying a fast track to energy systems with lower CO{sub 2} emissions. In the coming years, energy systems will be changed to consist of a combination of central units and smaller decentralized units - to a large extent based on renewable energy. At the same time there will be close links between the supply of energy and the individual end user of energy. These links will be based on extensive use of information and communication technology. This will allow end users to respond adequately to price signals and use the electricity for loading electric cars, laundry etc. while the electricity prices are low due to for example surplus of wind generated electricity. The workshop assessed the perspectives for a rapid development of energy systems with more renewable energy in order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. Furthermore, the workshop gives recommendations for the implementation of such energy systems. The recommendations are targeted at the research community, industry and public authorities. The recommendations include opportunities for synergy between the research community, the government and the energy industry as well as public authorities. This report presents summary and recommendations from the workshop. (au)

  4. The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, Daniel W; Lobell, David B; Sheffield, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO 2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO 2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century. (paper)

  5. Impacts of wind power generation and CO{sub 2} emission constraints on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, K.Q. [Institute of Energy, Hanoi (Viet Nam)

    2007-04-15

    This paper examines the impacts of wind power generation on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam. The study covers a time frame of 20 yr from 2005 to 2025 and the MARKAL model has been chosen to be adaptable to this specific task. The results of the study show that on a simple cost base, power generated from wind is not yet competitive with that of fossil fuel-based power plants. In order to make wind energy competitive, either carbon tax or an emission reduction target on the system must be imposed. The presence of wind power could affect not only the change in generation mix from coal-based power plants to wind turbines but also an increase in the capacity of other technologies which emit less carbon dioxide. It thus helps reduce fossil fuel requirement and consequently enhances energy security for the country. The study also shows that wind turbine in Vietnam could be a potential CDM project for annex I party countries. (author)

  6. Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Hongbo

    2017-01-01

    As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Future Tense and Economic Decisions: Controlling for Cultural Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Seán G; Winters, James; Chen, Keith

    2015-01-01

    A previous study by Chen demonstrates a correlation between languages that grammatically mark future events and their speakers' propensity to save, even after controlling for numerous economic and demographic factors. The implication is that languages which grammatically distinguish the present and the future may bias their speakers to distinguish them psychologically, leading to less future-oriented decision making. However, Chen's original analysis assumed languages are independent. This neglects the fact that languages are related, causing correlations to appear stronger than is warranted (Galton's problem). In this paper, we test the robustness of Chen's correlations to corrections for the geographic and historical relatedness of languages. While the question seems simple, the answer is complex. In general, the statistical correlation between the two variables is weaker when controlling for relatedness. When applying the strictest tests for relatedness, and when data is not aggregated across individuals, the correlation is not significant. However, the correlation did remain reasonably robust under a number of tests. We argue that any claims of synchronic patterns between cultural variables should be tested for spurious correlations, with the kinds of approaches used in this paper. However, experiments or case-studies would be more fruitful avenues for future research on this specific topic, rather than further large-scale cross-cultural correlational studies.

  8. Considering the future of anthropogenic gas-phase organic compound emissions and the increasing influence of non-combustion sources on urban air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khare, Peeyush; Gentner, Drew R.

    2018-04-01

    Decades of policy in developed regions has successfully reduced total anthropogenic emissions of gas-phase organic compounds, especially volatile organic compounds (VOCs), with an intentional, sustained focus on motor vehicles and other combustion-related sources. We examine potential secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and ozone formation in our case study megacity (Los Angeles) and demonstrate that non-combustion-related sources now contribute a major fraction of SOA and ozone precursors. Thus, they warrant greater attention beyond indoor environments to resolve large uncertainties in their emissions, oxidation chemistry, and outdoor air quality impacts in cities worldwide. We constrain the magnitude and chemical composition of emissions via several bottom-up approaches using chemical analyses of products, emissions inventory assessments, theoretical calculations of emission timescales, and a survey of consumer product material safety datasheets. We demonstrate that the chemical composition of emissions from consumer products as well as commercial and industrial products, processes, and materials is diverse across and within source subcategories. This leads to wide ranges of SOA and ozone formation potentials that rival other prominent sources, such as motor vehicles. With emission timescales from minutes to years, emission rates and source profiles need to be included, updated, and/or validated in emissions inventories with expected regional and national variability. In particular, intermediate-volatility and semi-volatile organic compounds (IVOCs and SVOCs) are key precursors to SOA, but are excluded or poorly represented in emissions inventories and exempt from emissions targets. We present an expanded framework for classifying VOC, IVOC, and SVOC emissions from this diverse array of sources that emphasizes a life cycle approach over longer timescales and three emission pathways that extend beyond the short-term evaporation of VOCs: (1) solvent evaporation, (2

  9. Global climate targets and future consumption level: an evaluation of the required GHG intensity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Girod, Bastien; Van Vuuren, Detlef Peter; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2013-01-01

    Discussion and analysis on international climate policy often focuses on the rather abstract level of total national and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At some point, however, emission reductions need to be translated to consumption level. In this article, we evaluate the implications of the strictest IPCC representative concentration pathway for key consumption categories (food, travel, shelter, goods, services). We use IPAT style identities to account for possible growth in global consumption levels and indicate the required change in GHG emission intensity for each category (i.e. GHG emission per calorie, person kilometer, square meter, kilogram, US dollar). The proposed concept provides guidance for product developers, consumers and policymakers. To reach the 2 °C climate target (2.1 tCO 2 -eq. per capita in 2050), the GHG emission intensity of consumption has to be reduced by a factor of 5 in 2050. The climate targets on consumption level allow discussion of the feasibility of this climate target at product and consumption level. In most consumption categories products in line with this climate target are available. For animal food and air travel, reaching the GHG intensity targets with product modifications alone will be challenging and therefore structural changes in consumption patterns might be needed. The concept opens up possibilities for further research on potential solutions on the consumption and product level to global climate mitigation. (letter)

  10. Uncertainty in future global energy use and fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions 1975 to 2075: Appendices A--B

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J.A. [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Washington, DC (United States). Inst. for Energy Analysis; Reilly, J.M. [Pacific Northwest Labs., Washington, DC (United States); Gardner, R.H. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Brenkert, A. [Science Applications International Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Appendix A contains the Monte Carlo Data Set. The data sheets give the distribution for input variables used in Monte Carlo analysis of the IEA/ORAU Global Energy, CO{sub 2} Model. The data sheets include a discussion of data sources, bibliographic sources, and other considerations used in developing the particular data format and values for distributions. As much detail as possible about how distributions are related to published estimates is given but in most cases it was necessary to make a significant leap from available data to the quantified distribution. The distributions are meant to be roughly accurate and to the degree that uncertainty exists about the form and value of distributions, the authors have tended to opt for wider bounds. Appendix B contains The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO{sub 2} Model, Version A.84 -- Model Improvements. The model was originally developed in 1982 in support of work conducted for the US Department of Energy Carbon Dioxide Research Division in the area of future global fossil fuel related CO emissions research. The uncertainty analysis, documented in this report, made demands on the model that had not previously been made, and in the process of operating the model much was learned about areas in which simplification or elaboration was justified, or in which a different approach was warranted. As a consequence of these criticisms, demands, and learning numerous model modifications were undertaken. Since two versions of the model now exist, version specifications have been adopted. The 1984 version is designated A.84, while the version completed in 1982 is designated B.82. Model changes fall into three categories: those which affect the theoretical structure of the model, those which affect the computational processes of the model, and those which affect only the model by which model inputs are entered.

  11. Future Expansion of Agriculture and Pasture Acts to Amplify Atmospheric CO2 Levels in Response to Fossil-Fuel and Land-Use Change Emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitz, V.; Ciais, P.

    2004-01-01

    The expansion of crop and pastures to the detriment of forests results in an increase in atmospheric CO2. The first obvious cause is the loss of forest biomass and soil carbon during and after conversion. The second, generally ignored cause, is the reduction of the residence time of carbon when, for example, forests or grasslands are converted to cultivated land. This decreases the sink capacity of the global terrestrial biosphere, and thereby may amplify the atmospheric CO2 rise due to fossil and land-use carbon release. For the IPCC A2 future scenario, characterized by high fossil and high land-use emissions, we show that the land-use amplifier effect adds 61 ppm extra CO2 in the atmosphere by 2100 as compared to former treatment of land-use processes in carbon models. Investigating the individual contribution of each of the six land-use transitions (forest crop, forest pasture, grassland crop) to the amplifier effect indicates that the clearing of forest and grasslands to arable lands explains most of the CO2 amplification. The amplification effect is 50% higher than in a previous analysis by the same authors which considered neither the deforestation of pastures nor the ploughing of grasslands. Such an amplification effect is further examined in sensitivity tests where the net primary productivity is considered independent of the atmospheric CO2. We also show that the land-use changes, which have already occurred in the recent past, have a strong inertia at releasing CO2, and will contribute to about 1/3 of the amplification effect by 2100. These results suggest that there is an additional atmospheric benefit of preserving pristine ecosystems with high turnover times

  12. Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Jonson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (sulfur emission control areas, although recently sulfur emissions, and subsequently particle emissions, have decreased. The maximum allowed sulfur content in marine fuels in EU ports is now 0.1%, as required by the European Union sulfur directive. In the SECAs the maximum fuel content of sulfur is currently 1% (the global average is about 2.4%. This will be reduced to 0.1% from 2015, following the new International Maritime Organization (IMO rules. In order to assess the effects of ship emissions in and around the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, regional model calculations with the EMEP air pollution model have been made on a 1/4° longitude × 1/8° latitude resolution, using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea that are based on accurate ship positioning data. The effects on depositions and air pollution and the resulting number of years of life lost (YOLLs have been calculated by comparing model calculations with and without ship emissions in the two sea areas. In 2010 stricter regulations for sulfur emissions were implemented in the two sea areas, reducing the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from 1.5 to 1%. In addition ships were required to use fuels with 0.1 % sulfur in EU harbours. The calculations have been made with emissions representative of 2009 and 2011, i.e. before and after the implementation of the stricter controls on sulfur emissions from 2010. The calculations with present emissions show that per person, an additional 0.1–0.2 years of life lost is estimated in areas close to the major ship tracks with current emission levels. Comparisons of model calculations with emissions before and after the implementation of stricter

  13. CO{sub 2}-emissions from future waste incineration - Sub-Project 5; CO{sub 2}-utslaepp fraan framtida avfallsfoerbraanning - Delprojekt 5 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bisaillon, Mattias; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Maartenssson, Paal

    2013-09-01

    The use of fossil fuels in Swedish district heating systems has fallen sharply. With continued pressure from society to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, it is likely that the use of these fuels will decrease further. The major remaining source of emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) from district heating systems 2020 is waste incineration with energy recovery in the form of electricity and heat. The aim of this project was, from two perspectives (stack perspective and system perspective), to analyze future emissions of fossil CO{sub 2} from Swedish waste incineration in the Swedish district heating systems. By studying both perspectives at the same time, the results answer whether changes in emissions in one perspective give similar or opposite effects seen from the other perspective. The purpose was also to make cost estimates for emission reduction measures affecting waste, energy and material production system. These costs were related to the price of allowances in the EU ETS and to the Swedish carbon tax. The project was performed in 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment'.

  14. A review of initiatives to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions from the city of Oxford: past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Rajat

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews three key initiatives undertaken in the historical city of Oxford to bring about reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions on a city-wide scale. The author has been part of all the three initiatives. In 2002, a collaborative partnership between academia, industry and city council started the Oxford Solar Initiative (OSI) which uses a community-based approach to help households and organisations in Oxford, financially and technically, to install solar energy systems and energy efficiency measures in buildings. So far OSI has facilitated the installation of 80 active solar systems, over 450 energy efficiency measures and 3,000 low energy bulbs. The scientific basis of OSI is a GIS-based DECoRuM model which estimates and maps baseline energy use and CO 2 emissions on a house-by house level, identifies 'pollution' hotspots, predicts the potential for reductions in CO 2 emissions and monitors reductions achieved as a result of deploying energy efficiency measures and renewable energy systems. The application of DECoRuM model to a case study in Oxford shows that CO 2 emission reductions above 60 % are possible, at a cost of between GBP 6 to GBP 77 per tonne of CO 2 emissions saved, depending upon the package of measures used, and the scenario of capital costs (low or high) employed. The OSI and DECoRuM projects have led to the development of an action-oriented Oxford Climate Change Action Plan (OCCAP) which constructs an accurate CO 2 emissions inventory for Oxford city for a baseline year, establishes CO 2 reduction targets and proposes action for each of the energy-related sectors to meet those targets. The OCCAP will be implemented by Oxford City Council and provides a useful example for other cities in their endeavour for emission reductions

  15. A review of initiatives to reduce energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions from the city of Oxford: past, present and future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Rajat [Dept. of Architecture, School of the Built Environment, Oxford Brookes Univ. (United Kingdom)

    2007-07-01

    This paper reviews three key initiatives undertaken in the historical city of Oxford to bring about reductions in energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions on a city-wide scale. The author has been part of all the three initiatives. In 2002, a collaborative partnership between academia, industry and city council started the Oxford Solar Initiative (OSI) which uses a community-based approach to help households and organisations in Oxford, financially and technically, to install solar energy systems and energy efficiency measures in buildings. So far OSI has facilitated the installation of 80 active solar systems, over 450 energy efficiency measures and 3,000 low energy bulbs. The scientific basis of OSI is a GIS-based DECoRuM model which estimates and maps baseline energy use and CO{sub 2} emissions on a house-by house level, identifies 'pollution' hotspots, predicts the potential for reductions in CO{sub 2} emissions and monitors reductions achieved as a result of deploying energy efficiency measures and renewable energy systems. The application of DECoRuM model to a case study in Oxford shows that CO{sub 2} emission reductions above 60 % are possible, at a cost of between GBP 6 to GBP 77 per tonne of CO{sub 2} emissions saved, depending upon the package of measures used, and the scenario of capital costs (low or high) employed. The OSI and DECoRuM projects have led to the development of an action-oriented Oxford Climate Change Action Plan (OCCAP) which constructs an accurate CO{sub 2} emissions inventory for Oxford city for a baseline year, establishes CO{sub 2} reduction targets and proposes action for each of the energy-related sectors to meet those targets. The OCCAP will be implemented by Oxford City Council and provides a useful example for other cities in their endeavour for emission reductions.

  16. Technologies for simulation improvement of NOx and PM emissions and fuel consumption of future diesel engines for heavy-duty trucks; Shorai no ogatasha diesel engine ni okeru NOx, PM, nenryo shohi no kaizen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shimoda, M.; Shimokawa, K.; Uchida, N.; Tsuji, Y.; Yokotaa, H.; Hosoya, M. [Hino Motors, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1999-01-01

    Future diesel engines for heavy-duty trucks are required to have significantly low NO{sub x} and PM emissions and fuel consumption characteristics. In order to improve these characteristics, various technologies including high pressure fuel injection systems, combustion optimization. high boost pressure turbocharging, EGR homogeneous charge compression ignition combined with multiple injections, and aftertreatment are discussed. As each technology has a number of challenges to overcome, it will take long before engines with these technologies are commercially available. In this paper, the research activities accomplished to date are reported. (author)

  17. Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, Hongbo, E-mail: hbduan@ucas.ac.cn

    2017-01-15

    Background: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. Methods: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Results: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Conclusions: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. - Highlights: • We assess the warming benefits associated with substitution of wind power for coal. • The effect of emission space limits on climate responses is deeply examined. • China is responsible for at most 21.76% of global warming given the 2-degree target. • Wind power alone may not be sufficient to face the challenge of climate change. • A fertile policy soil and an aggressive plan are necessary to boost renewables.

  18. Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Hongbo

    2017-01-01

    Background: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. Methods: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Results: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Conclusions: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. - Highlights: • We assess the warming benefits associated with substitution of wind power for coal. • The effect of emission space limits on climate responses is deeply examined. • China is responsible for at most 21.76% of global warming given the 2-degree target. • Wind power alone may not be sufficient to face the challenge of climate change. • A fertile policy soil and an aggressive plan are necessary to boost renewables.

  19. research document no. 27 bis. After the Hague, Bonn and Marrakech: the future international market for emissions permits and the issue of hot air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, O.; Criqui, P.; Kitous, A.

    2002-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to assess the Bonn-Marrakech agreement, in terms of abatement cost and emission trading as compared with the initial agreement reached in Kyoto (the Kyoto Protocol). Our reference case (the Initial Deal) does not include the use of sinks credits, as the Kyoto Protocol does not give explicit figures nor method to estimate them. In addition, two hypothetical situations are considered. The first describes the ''missed compromise'' that could have emerged among all Parties in November 2000 in The Hague. The second is a virtual case where the US is assumed to be part of the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement, along with all the other Parties. These two cases contribute to shed the light on the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement potential pitfalls. In the current situation, the US is out of the negotiation process and has no emission reduction commitment. Given the projections of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions used in this study, the Former Soviet Union countries (FSU) and the Eastern European Economies (EEE) that are part of the Annex B have potentially enough Hot Air to fulfill the overall commitment of the Annex B bubble, without any domestic abatement effort from the other Annex B countries. We show that in the theoretical case where no limit would be imposed on the selling of Hot Air, the permit price according to the POLES model would be zero as no market equilibrium could take place. This is why, next, we examine the economic impacts of restrictions to hot air trading, for FSU and EEE as well as for the other countries. We shed the light on the potential market power of the former countries that arises from the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement. (author)

  20. Probabilistic estimation of future emissions of isoprene and surface oxidant chemistry associated with land-use change in response to growing food needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Hardacre

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We quantify the impact of land-use change, determined by our growing demand for food and biofuel production, on isoprene emissions and subsequent atmospheric oxidant chemistry in 2015 and 2030, relative to 1990, ignoring compound climate change effects over that period. We estimate isoprene emissions from an ensemble (n = 1000 of land-use change realizations from 1990–2050, broadly guided by the IPCC AR4/SRES scenarios A1 and B1. We also superimpose land-use change required to address projected biofuel usage using two scenarios: (1 assuming that world governments make no changes to biofuel policy after 2009, and (2 assuming that world governments develop biofuel policy with the aim of keeping equivalent atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm. We present the median and interquartile range (IQR statistics of the ensemble and show that land-use change between −1.50 × 1012 m2 to +6.06 × 1012 m2 was found to drive changes in the global isoprene burden of −3.5 to +2.8 Tg yr−1 in 2015 and −7.7 to +6.4 Tg yr−1 in 2030. We use land-use change realizations corresponding to the median and IQR of these emission estimates to drive the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemistry transport model to investigate the perturbation to global and regional surface concentrations of isoprene, nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2, and the atmospheric concentration and deposition of ozone (O3. We show that across subcontinental regions the monthly surface O3 increases by 0.1–0.8 ppb, relative to a zero land-use change calculation, driven by increases (decreases in surface isoprene in high (low NOx environments. At the local scale (4° × 5° we find that surface O3 increases by 5–12 ppb over temperate North America, China and boreal Eurasia, driven by large increases in isoprene emissions from short-rotation coppice crop cultivation for biofuel production.

  1. Several companies will not be able to earn amounts necessary to meet strictest European Union standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zackova, K.; Sobinkovic, B.

    2003-01-01

    Costs of meeting environmental laws, regulations and directives applying to industrial companies are relatively high. Some companies are therefore concerned that they will not be in the position to accumulate sufficient funds to meet the requirements of newly introduced legislation reflecting the European Union (EU) environmental standards. And those plants that will not manage to comply with the new regulation by the set deadline, will face a threat of being closed down. In some cases the threat will be softened by transition periods agreed on in course of pre-entry negotiations on the chapter environment and through time schedules provided for in the newly introduced regulations. Danish consultant company Niras in co-operation with Institute of Slovak and World Economy at SAV (Slovak Academy of Science) calculated that the costs related to implementation EU environmental standards by 2035 would amount to 437 bn Slovak crowns (Sk) (10.57 billion Euro). Chief Negotiator of Slovakia's EU-entry, Jan Figel confirmed that from financial point of view the implementation of environmental standards was the most demanding requirement of all. Experts cannot predict yet what part of these costs will be covered by companies themselves. The highest amount should be spent on water protection - 185 billion Sk (4.47 billion Euro) until 2030. In the waste disposal industry the necessary investments during the same period are estimated to 130 billion Sk (3.14 billion Euro) and another 90 billion Sk (2.18 billion Euro) will have to be spent on big incineration facilities. The mentioned amount of 437 billion Sk (10.57 billion Euro) does not include any costs related to liquidation of old environmental burdens. But this problem will be partially solved through the new environmental arrangements. Several industrial companies are not allowed to build new waste dumps as long as they have not liquidated the old ones or at leas have addressed the matter of contaminated soil. There is no comprehensive technique used for calculating environmental debts and so the information regarding their total amount differ. Ministry of Environment expects them to fall into an interval between 100 and 130 billion Sk (2.42 - 3.14 billion Euro) and in the middle of the nineties the entrepreneurs estimated it to more then 72 billion Sk (1.74 billion Euro). All the problems with financing of environmental arrangements can be traced back to the way companies approached this matter in the past. The more they invested into this area the less concerned they are about meeting the EU environmental standards. A majority of companies owned by foreigners have already invested a lot into environmental controls. (Authors)

  2. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  3. Efficient common rail injection systems and intelligent control strategies for the fulfillment of future on/off highway emission limits; Effiziente Common Rail Einspritzsysteme und intelligente Regelstrategien fuer die Erfuellung zukuenftiger On-/Off-Highway Emissionsgrenzwerte

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schugger, Christian; Krauss, Jost; Projahn, Ulrich; Gerhardt, Juergen [Robert Bosch GmbH, Stuttgart-Feuerbach (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    The diesel engine is the most common powertrain in commercial applications, and will retain that position for the foreseeable future. In order to meet future emission standards, a wide variety of solutions within combustion process control, exhaust gas aftertreatment, air and injection systems have been developed. The development of common rail injection systems for trucks with 2000 and 2200 bar injection pressure increases the opportunities for internal engine emissions reductions. The systems are designed for medium-duty and heavy-duty applications, on-highway (on-HW) and Off-highway (off-HW). Besides increasing the injection pressure this system features high efficiency in hydraulic pressure generation and injection, making a direct contribution to reducing fuel consumption. To meet even greater requirements, a system with an injection pressure of 2500 bar is under development. As an indicator for the hydraulic efficiency of an injector, the ''effective injection pressure'' is derived. This indicator allows for a uniform rating of different injector concepts. Software functions contribute to the fulfillment of the system requirements over lifetime. An engine speed based function calibrates the pilot injection quantity during low idle operation for on- and off-highway applications. The increase in system pressure results in increased loads for the components. A calibration function for the pump delivery characteristics minimizes pressure overshoots and ensures the pressure control dynamics over lifetime. (orig.)

  4. Using Lava Tube Skylight Thermal Emission Spectra to Determine Lava Composition on Io: Quantitative Constraints for Observations by Future Missions to the Jovian System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, A. G.

    2008-12-01

    Deriving the composition of Io's dominant lavas (mafic or ultramafic?) is a major objective of the next missions to the jovian system. The best opportunities for making this determination are from observations of thermal emission from skylights, holes in the roof of a lava tube through which incandescent lava radiates, and Io thermal outbursts, where lava fountaining is taking place [1]. Allowing for lava cooling across the skylight, the expected thermal emission spectra from skylights of different sizes have been calculated for laminar and turbulent tube flow and for mafic and ultramafic composition lavas. The difference between the resulting mafic and ultramafic lava spectra has been quantified, as has the instrument sensitivity needed to acquire the necessary data to determine lava eruption temperature, both from Europa orbit and during an Io flyby. A skylight is an excellent target to observe lava that has cooled very little since eruption (California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA. AGD is supported by a grant from the NASA OPR Program. References: [1] Davies, A. G., 1996, Icarus, 124, 45-61. [2] Keszthelyi, L., et al., 2006, JGS, 163, 253-264. [3] Davies, A. G., 2007, Volcanism on Io, Cambridge University Press. [4] Keszthelyi, L., et al., 2007, Icarus, 192, 491-502. [5] Davies, A. G., et al., 2006, Icarus, 184, 460-477.

  5. Modeling of Cosmic-Ray Propagation and Galactic Diffuse Gamma-Ray Emission in Support of Current and Future NASA Missions, Phase 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskalenko, Igor

    This is a "Phase 3" successor proposal that is a continuation of work funded by the Astrophysics Research and Analysis (APRA) Program through the sub-topic "Particle Astrophysics": Considerable advances in astrophysics of cosmic rays in recent years have become possible due to superior instrumentation launched into space and to the top of the atmosphere. The ACE-CRIS, AMS-02, Fermi-LAT, HAWC, PAMELA, SuperTIGER, Voyager 1,2, WMAP, and many other missions made a lot of breakthroughs and more is expected in the following years. Other high-expectations missions are recently launched (CALET) or are awaiting for launch (ISS-CREAM). The claimed precision of the AMS- 02 data reaches 1-3%. Taking full advantage of the high quality data requires numerical models of comparable accuracy. The current state-of-the-art cosmic ray propagation model is GALPROP, which has become a standard analysis tool in astrophysics of cosmic rays, studies of the diffuse emissions, and related fields. It provides a unified framework for the interpretation of data collected by many different kinds of experiments and emphasizes the inter-relationship between different types of data. We are proposing considerable improvements of the GALPROP model and tool that include generalization of the description of the components of the Galactic interstellar medium to the full 3D and extensive application of the Bayesian tools in building such data-sets, development of a heliospheric propagation tool fully compatible with GALPROP, development of a reliable diffuse emission model in the keV-TeV energy range, generalization of the nuclear reaction network and cross section routines to include trans-iron nuclides, improvements in the description of the production of secondary particles in cosmic ray interactions, various speed and memory optimizations. We will continue to support a dedicated website which hosts GALPROP WebRun, a user-friendly interface for running the GALPROP code on a dedicated cluster

  6. Assessment of myocardial blood flow and coronary flow reserve with positron emission tomography in ischemic heart disease: current state and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Badarin, Firas; Aljizeeri, Ahmed; Almasoudi, Fatimah; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

    2017-07-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) is a versatile imaging technology that allows assessment of myocardial perfusion, both at a spatially relative scale and also in absolute terms, thereby enabling noninvasive evaluation of myocardial blood flow (MBF) and coronary flow reserve (CFR). Assessment of MBF using FDA-approved PET isotopes, such as 82 Rb and 13 N-ammonia, has been well validated, and several software packages are currently available, thereby allowing for MBF evaluation to be incorporated into routine workflow in contemporary nuclear laboratories. Incremental diagnostic and prognostic information provided with the knowledge of MBF has the potential for widespread applications. Improving the ability to identify the true burden of obstructive epicardial coronary stenoses and allowing for noninvasive assessment of coronary micro circulatory function can be achieved with MBF assessment. On the other hand, attenuated CFR has been shown to predict adverse cardiovascular prognosis in a variety of clinical settings and patient subgroups. With expanding applications of MBF, this tool promises to provide unique insight into the integrity of the entire coronary vascular bed beyond what is currently available with relative perfusion assessment. This review intends to provide an in-depth discussion of technical and clinical aspects of MBF assessment with PET as it relates to patients with ischemic heart disease.

  7. California Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projections: 2017-2025 - Future Infrastructure Needs for Reaching the State's Zero Emission-Vehicle Deployment Goals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, Eric W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rames, Clement L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bedir, Abdulkadir [California Energy Commission; Crisostomo, Noel [California Energy Commission; Allen, Jennifer [California Energy Commission

    2018-03-27

    This report analyzes plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) infrastructure needs in California from 2017 to 2025 in a scenario where the State's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) deployment goals are achieved by household vehicles. The statewide infrastructure needs are evaluated by using the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection tool, which incorporates representative statewide travel data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey. The infrastructure solution presented in this assessment addresses two primary objectives: (1) enabling travel for battery electric vehicles and (2) maximizing the electric vehicle-miles traveled for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The analysis is performed at the county-level for each year between 2017 and 2025 while considering potential technology improvements. The results from this study present an infrastructure solution that can facilitate market growth for PEVs to reach the State's ZEV goals by 2025. The overall results show a need for 99k-130k destination chargers, including workplaces and public locations, and 9k-25k fast chargers. The results also show a need for dedicated or shared residential charging solutions at multi-family dwellings, which are expected to host about 120k PEVs by 2025. An improvement to the scientific literature, this analysis presents the significance of infrastructure reliability and accessibility on the quantification of charger demand.

  8. Materials towards carbon-free, emission-free and oil-free mobility: hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles--now and in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirose, Katsuhiko

    2010-07-28

    In the past, material innovation has changed society through new material-induced technologies, adding a new value to society. In the present world, engineers and scientists are expected to invent new materials to solve the global problem of climate change. For the transport sector, the challenge for material engineers is to change the oil-based world into a sustainable world. After witnessing the recent high oil price and its adverse impact on the global economy, it is time to accelerate our efforts towards this change. Industries are tackling global energy issues such as oil and CO2, as well as local environmental problems, such as NO(x) and particulate matter. Hydrogen is the most promising candidate to provide carbon-free, emission-free and oil-free mobility. As such, engineers are working very hard to bring this technology into the real society. This paper describes recent progress of vehicle technologies, as well as hydrogen-storage technologies to extend the cruise range and ensure the easiness of refuelling and requesting material scientists to collaborate with industry to fight against global warming.

  9. Microalgae for third generation biofuel production, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and wastewater treatment: Present and future perspectives – A mini review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maity, Jyoti Prakash; Bundschuh, Jochen; Chen, Chien-Yen; Bhattacharya, Prosun

    2014-01-01

    The extensive use of fossil fuels is increasingly recognized as unsustainable as a consequence of depletion of supplies and the contribution of these fuels to climate change by GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions into the atmosphere. Microalgae indicate alternative renewable sustainable energy sources as they have a high potential for producing large amounts of biomass which in turn can be used for production of different third-generation biofuels at large scale. Microalgae transform the solar energy into the carbon storage products, leads to lipid accumulation, including TAG (triacylglycerols), which then can be transformed into biodiesel, bioethanol and biomethanol. This paper reviews the selection, production and accumulation of target bioenergy carrier's strains and their advantages as well as the technological development for oil, biodiesel, ethanol, methanol, biogas production and GHG mitigation. The feedstock of promising algal strain exhibits the suitable biofuel production. The current progress of hybrid-technologies (biomass production, wastewater treatment, GHG mitigation) for production of prime-products as biofuels offer atmospheric pollution control such as the reduction of GHG (CO 2 fixation) coupling wastewater treatment with microalgae growth. The selection of efficient strain, microbial metabolism, cultivation systems, biomass production are key parameters of viable technology for microalgae-based biodiesel-production. - Highlights: • Microalgae are promising feedstock for biofuel production within lower farming area. • Production rate (L/ha) of oil from microalgae is much higher than other feedstock. • Lipid of Chlorella emersonii, Botryococcus braunii, Dunaliella tertiolecta, are high (>60% of dw biomass). • Remove pollutant from wastewater during feedstock production by selective strains. • Ecofriendly route to mitigate GHG (greenhouse gas) and water pollution during microalgae production

  10. Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2015) and Future (2025-2030) Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Marcus; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J.

    2016-01-01

    This study provides a comprehensive life-cycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, as well as the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. This study also estimates the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of key fuel and vehicle technologies along the pathways. The C2G analysis spans a full portfolio of midsize light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). In evaluating the vehicle-fuel combinations, this study considers both low-volume and high-volume ''CURRENT TECHNOLOGY'' cases (nominally 2015) and a high-volume ''FUTURE TECHNOLOGY'' lower-carbon case (nominally 2025-2030). For the CURRENT TECHNOLOGY case, low-volume vehicle and fuel production pathways are examined to determine costs in the near term.

  11. Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2015) and Future (2025-2030) Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Marcus; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy

    2016-06-01

    This study provides a comprehensive lifecycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, as well as the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. This study also estimates the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of key fuel and vehicle technologies along the pathways. The C2G analysis spans a full portfolio of midsize light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). In evaluating the vehicle-fuel combinations, this study considers both low-volume and high-volume “CURRENT TECHNOLOGY” cases (nominally 2015) and a high-volume “FUTURE TECHNOLOGY” lower-carbon case (nominally 2025–2030). For the CURRENT TECHNOLOGY case, low-volume vehicle and fuel production pathways are examined to determine costs in the near term.

  12. Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2015) and Future (2025–2030) Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Ward, Jacob [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Joseck, Fred [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Gohlke, David [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Lindauer, Alicia [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Alexander, Marcus [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Barnhart, Steven [Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) US LLC, Auburn Hills, MI (United States); Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Warren, MI (United States); Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, CA (United States); Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, MI (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This study provides a comprehensive life-cycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, as well as the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. This study also estimates the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of key fuel and vehicle technologies along the pathways. The C2G analysis spans a full portfolio of midsize light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). In evaluating the vehicle-fuel combinations, this study considers both low-volume and high-volume “CURRENT TECHNOLOGY” cases (nominally 2015) and a high-volume “FUTURE TECHNOLOGY” lower-carbon case (nominally 2025–2030). For the CURRENT TECHNOLOGY case, low-volume vehicle and fuel production pathways are examined to determine costs in the near term.

  13. Acoustic emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nichols, R.W.

    1976-01-01

    The volume contains six papers which together provide an overall review of the inspection technique known as acoustic emission or stress wave emission. The titles are: a welder's introduction to acoustic emission technology; use of acoustic emission for detection of defects as they arise during fabrication; examples of laboratory application and assessment of acoustic emission in the United Kingdom; (Part I: acoustic emission behaviour of low alloy steels; Part II: fatigue crack assessment from proof testing and continuous monitoring); inspection of selected areas of engineering structures by acoustic emission; Japanese experience in laboratory and practical applications of acoustic emission to welded structures; and ASME acoustic emission code status. (U.K.)

  14. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaveau, David L A; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Wich, Serge; Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel; Kanninen, Markku

    2009-01-01

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km 2 that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km 2 protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km 2 of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km 2 ) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km 2 ), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km 2 of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an upland PA may not significantly reduce

  15. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaveau, David L. A.; Wich, Serge; Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel; Kanninen, Markku; Leader-Williams, Nigel

    2009-09-01

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km2 that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km2 protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km2 of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km2) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km2), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km2 of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an upland PA may not significantly reduce

  16. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaveau, David L A; Leader-Williams, Nigel [Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NR (United Kingdom); Wich, Serge [Great Apes Trust of Iowa, 4200 SE 44th Avenue, Des Moines, IA 50320 (United States); Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel [Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202 (United States); Kanninen, Markku, E-mail: dgaveau@yahoo.co.u, E-mail: swich@greatapetrust.or, E-mail: justep22@myfastmail.co, E-mail: d.juhn@conservation.or, E-mail: m.kanninen@cgiar.or, E-mail: n.leader-williams@kent.ac.u [Center for International Forestry Research, Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sidang Barang, Bogor, West Java (Indonesia)

    2009-09-15

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km{sup 2} that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km{sup 2} protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km{sup 2} of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km{sup 2}) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km{sup 2}), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km{sup 2} of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an

  17. Positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dvorak, O.

    1989-01-01

    The principle is briefly described of positron emission tomography, and its benefits and constraints are listed. It is emphasized that positron emission tomography (PET) provides valuable information on metabolic changes in the organism that are otherwise only very difficult to obtain, such as brain diagnosis including relationships between mental disorders and the physiology and pathophysiology of the brain. A PET machine is to be installed in Czechoslovakia in the near future. (L.O.)

  18. Research document no. 27 bis. After the Hague, Bonn and Marrakech: the future international market for emissions permits and the issue of hot air; Cahier de recherche no. 27. Apres La Hague, Bonn et Marrakech: le futur marche international des permis de droits d'emissions et la question de l'air chaud

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchard, O.; Criqui, P.; Kitous, A

    2002-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to assess the Bonn-Marrakech agreement, in terms of abatement cost and emission trading as compared with the initial agreement reached in Kyoto (the Kyoto Protocol). Our reference case (the Initial Deal) does not include the use of sinks credits, as the Kyoto Protocol does not give explicit figures nor method to estimate them. In addition, two hypothetical situations are considered. The first describes the ''missed compromise'' that could have emerged among all Parties in November 2000 in The Hague. The second is a virtual case where the US is assumed to be part of the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement, along with all the other Parties. These two cases contribute to shed the light on the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement potential pitfalls. In the current situation, the US is out of the negotiation process and has no emission reduction commitment. Given the projections of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions used in this study, the Former Soviet Union countries (FSU) and the Eastern European Economies (EEE) that are part of the Annex B have potentially enough Hot Air to fulfill the overall commitment of the Annex B bubble, without any domestic abatement effort from the other Annex B countries. We show that in the theoretical case where no limit would be imposed on the selling of Hot Air, the permit price according to the POLES model would be zero as no market equilibrium could take place. This is why, next, we examine the economic impacts of restrictions to hot air trading, for FSU and EEE as well as for the other countries. We shed the light on the potential market power of the former countries that arises from the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement. (author)

  19. Energy futures-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    This book covers the proceedings of the Symposium on Energy Futures II. Topics covered include: The National Energy Strategy; The Gas and petroleum industry; energy use in the paper industry; solar energy technology; hydroelectric power; biomass/waste utilization; engine emissions testing laboratories; integrated coal gassification-combined-cycle power plants

  20. Emissions Trading

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woerdman, Edwin; Backhaus, Juergen

    2014-01-01

    Emissions trading is a market-based instrument to achieve environmental targets in a cost-effective way by allowing legal entities to buy and sell emission rights. The current international dissemination and intended linking of emissions trading schemes underlines the growing relevance of this

  1. Emission Facilities - Air Emission Plants

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Education | GIS Inventory — Represents the Primary Facility type Air Emission Plant (AEP) point features. Air Emissions Plant is a DEP primary facility type related to the Air Quality Program....

  2. Emission inventory; Inventaire des emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fontelle, J.P. [CITEPA, Centre Interprofessionnel Technique d`Etudes de la Pollution Atmospherique, 75 - Paris (France)

    1997-12-31

    Statistics on air pollutant (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonium) emissions, acid equivalent emissions and their evolution since 1990 in the various countries of Europe and the USA, are presented. Emission data from the industrial, agricultural, transportation and power sectors are given, and comparisons are carried out between countries based on Gnp and population, pollution import/export fluxes and compliance to the previous emission reduction objectives

  3. Energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Treat, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This book provides fifteen of the futures industry's leading authorities with broader background in both theory and practice of energy futures trading in this updated text. The authors review the history of the futures market and the fundamentals of trading, hedging, and technical analysis; then they update you with the newest trends in energy futures trading - natural gas futures, options, regulations, and new information services. The appendices outline examples of possible contracts and their construction

  4. Prognostic value of myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography for the prediction of future cardiac events in a Japanese population. A middle-term follow-up study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Naoya; Sato, Yuichi; Suzuki, Yasuyuki

    2007-01-01

    The prognostic value of rest 201 Tl/stress 99m Tc-tetrofosmin myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) for the prediction of future hard cardiac events, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), unstable angina (UAP) and cardiac death, and the implications for risk stratification has not yet been defined in a Japanese population. The 1,988 patients who underwent rest 201 Tl/stress 99m Tc-tetrofosmin SPECT were identified and followed up for the occurrence of AMI, UAP and cardiac death. The mean follow-up interval was 26.9±15.8 months. The 142 patients were revascularized within 60 days after SPECT and they were censored from the prognostic analysis. Summed stress score (SSS), summed rest score and summed difference score (SDS) were calculated using a 5-point scoring (Normal: 0, No uptake: 4) and a 20-segment model; 22 cases of myocardial infarction, 31 of UAP and 22 cardiac deaths occurred (1.2%, 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that hypertension (Wald 6.37, p<0.05) and SDS (Wald 8.77, p<0.01) were independent predictors of AMI and UAP. Advanced age (Wald 16.0, p<0.001), SSS (Wald 10.9, p<0.01) and SDS (Wald 4.58, p<0.05) were independent predictors of cardiac death. Myocardial perfusion SPECT yields prognostic information toward the identification of acute coronary syndrome and cardiac death. (author)

  5. Futuring for Future Ready Librarians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueroa, Miguel A.

    2018-01-01

    Futurists and foresight professionals offer several guiding principles for thinking about the future. These principles can help people to think about the future and become more powerful players in shaping the preferred futures they want for themselves and their communities. The principles also fit in well as strategies to support the Future Ready…

  6. Future accelerators (?)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  7. ECO2, Emissions Trading Services, development project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruokonen, A.

    2006-01-01

    Emissions Trading started within EU at the beginning of 2005. It caused substantial changes to the business environment of energy companies and energy intensive industry. The planning of Emissions Trading is a complicated process and companies will need consulting, IT systems and other services. Emissions Trading introduces a new factor of production emission allowances, which are tradable commodities. In future, Emissions Trading emissions, emission allowances and the prices of emission allowances have to be considered during the fuel purchasing and the energy production planning. And the best possible knowledge of the own emissions balance and market situation has a monetary value when trading emission allowances. Allocation of emission allowances has done in each country according to National Allocation Plan (NAP), accepted by EU. Finland itself and thus also the Finnish companies will be net buyers of emission allowances in long run. That means commonly that the Finnish companies have to buy more allowances meaning some extra costs to the companies. That's why it is very important to develop and provide to the companies an innovatory emissions planning, follow-up, management and reporting systems. With good emission balance management the extra costs of Emissions Trading will be as low as possible. In ECO2 project, Empower together with Power-Deriva, developed Expert services, Emissions Balance Management and Reporting services and Risk Management services for Emissions Trading and needed software and tools for these services. (orig.)

  8. Transportation Emissions: some basics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.

    2016-01-01

    transportation and especially carbon dioxide emissions are at the center stage of discussion by the world community through various international treaties, such as the Kyoto Protocol. The transportation sector also emits non-CO2 pollutants that have important effects on air quality, climate, and public health......Transportation is the backbone of international trade and a key engine driving globalization. However, there is growing concern that the Earth’s atmospheric composition is being altered by human activities, including transportation, which can lead to climate change. Air pollution from....... The main purpose of this chapter is to introduce some basic concepts that are relevant in the quest of green transportation logistics. First, we present the basics of estimating emissions from transportation activities, the current statistics and future trends, as well as the total impact of air emissions...

  9. Compliance with future emission standards of mobile machines by developing a monovalent natural gas combustion process; Einhaltung zukuenftiger Abgasnormen von mobilen Arbeitsmaschinen durch Entwicklung eines monovalenten Erdgas-Brennverfahrens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prehn, Sascha [Rostock Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Kolbenmaschinen und Verbrennungsmotoren; Wichmann, Volker; Harndorf, Horst; Beberdick, Wolfgang

    2014-08-01

    Within the presented project a monovalent natural gas engine is being developed. Based on a serial diesel engine the operation mode of this prototype is changed to a spark ignition concept. The long term purpose of this new engine is an agricultural application. One major objective of the project is the investigation and evaluation of a combustion process, able to fulfil the performance requests as well as the European emission limits for nitrogen oxides NO{sub x}, and carbon monoxide CO of mobile machinery, which become into law in October 2014 (EU stage IV). At the time there are no legislative regulations existing regarding the methane emissions of the observed engines. To get a benefit in greenhouse gas emissions compared to diesel or gasoline engines the methane emissions have to be minimized while operating in natural gas mode. In the course of the current project an engine operation with a methane emission less than 0.5 g/kWh (representing the EURO VI limit for heavy duty vehicles) could be demonstrated. In contrast to diesel engines for agricultural applications it is possible to comply with the emission standards without using a high sophisticated after treatment system consisting of diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), particulate filter (DPF) and SCR catalyst. The usage of a three way catalyst optimized for high methane conversions is sufficient for a stoichiometry gas operation with exhaust gas recirculation. Therefore a significant cost advantage is given.

  10. Prospects for future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    The different climates of the past and model simulations of future climates convincingly indicate that the continuing emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to significant global warming and to changes in precipitation and other climatic variables. The projected changes in atmospheric composition and, consequently, in climatic conditions will be unique and more rapid than at any time in the past. The developing understanding of the chemical cycles controlling atmospheric composition and of the processes and behavior controlling the climate system can provide significant guidance about how the future climate will change. This chapter first summarizes the many scientific advances described in the preceding chapters that can help one better understand and describe the climate system and the resulting agricultural and hydrological impacts of these changes in climate. The chapter then draws from this understanding to outline the prospects for future climate

  11. Future Textiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne-Louise Degn; Jensen, Hanne Troels Fusvad; Hansen, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Magasinet Future Textiles samler resultaterne fra projektet Future Textiles, der markedsfører området intelligente tekstiler. I magasinet kan man læse om trends, drivkræfter, udfordringer samt få ideer til nye produkter inden for intelligente tekstiler. Områder som bæredygtighed og kundetilpasning...

  12. Futures Brokerages Face uncertain Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG PEI

    2006-01-01

    @@ 2005 was a quiet year for China's futures market.After four new trading products, including cotton, fuel oil and corn, were launched on the market in 2004, the development of the market seemed to stagnate. The trade value of the futures market totaled 13.4 trillion yuan (US$ 1.67 trillion) in 2005, down 8.5 percent year-on-year. Although the decrease is quite small and the trade value was still the second highest in the market's history, the majority of futures brokerage firms were running in the red. In some areas, up to 80 percent of futures companies made losses.

  13. Energy future 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syri, S; Kainiemi, L; Riikonen, V [Aalto Univ. School of Engineering, Espoo (Finland). Dept. of Energy Technology

    2011-07-01

    The track was organized by the Department of Energy Technology, School of Engineering, at Aalto University. Energy future 2050 -track introduced participants to the global long-term challenges of achieving a sustainable energy supply. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), effective climate change mitigation would require the global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by 50-85% from the present level by 2050. For industrialized countries, this would probably mean a practically carbon-neutral economy and energy supply, as developing countries need more possibilities for growth and probably enter stricter emission reduction commitments with some delay. In the beginning of the workshop, students were introduced to global energy scenarios and the challenge of climate change mitigation. Students worked in three groups with the following topics: How to gain public acceptance of Carbon (dioxide) Capture and Storage (CCS) ? Personal emissions trading as a tool to achieve deep emission cuts, How to get rid of fossil fuel subsidies? Nordic cases are peat use in Finland and Sweden. (orig.)

  14. The strictest energy requirements in the world: An analysis of the path dependencies of a self-proclaimed success

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagelskjær Lauridsen, Erik; Stissing Jensen, Jens

    2013-01-01

    50 years of progressively strengthened energy requirements in the Danish building code appear to be a success, as the energy consumption has remained constant despite an increase in the total area in requirement of heating. This article however argues that the building code mechanism is heavily influenced by path dependent regime structuration processes, and that the mechanism constitutes a barrier to more radical developments within low energy housing. Few and poorly organized frontrunner activities within low energy housing have accordingly taken place in a Danish context during the past decades. Finally it is proposed that the current development within the energy system provides opportunities for cultivating an improved transitional awareness and for carrying out experimental activities that may challenge the path dependencies of prevailing regime structuration processes. - Highlights: ► We analyze the role of the building code energy strategy as an incumbent regime. ► Regime independent development activities such as passive houses are retained. ► Industry is characterized by adaptive capacity to support radical development. ► Adaptive capacity needs to be mobilized and configure by regime problematizations. ► Governance capabilities to achieve such a mobilization are presently in short supply.

  15. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  16. Acoustic emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Straus, A.; Lopez Pumarega, M.I.; Di Gaetano, J.O.; D'Atellis, C.E.; Ruzzante, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper is related to our activities on acoustic emission (A.E.). The work is made with different materials: metals and fibre reinforced plastics. At present, acoustic emission transducers are being developed for low and high temperature. A test to detect electrical discharges in electrical transformers was performed. Our experience in industrial tests to detect cracks or failures in tanks or tubes is also described. The use of A.E. for leak detection is considered. Works on pattern recognition of A.E. signals are also being performed. (Author)

  17. Agricultural futures as becoming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dan Kristian; Kjeldsen, Chris

    This paper explores how the unfolding of an alternative future for agriculture consists of struggles to assemble a heterogeneous network of natural relations and social relations and technological relations. The site of this exploration is a profiled project, where a zero emission and landless...... agricultural facility is envisioned to consist of a pig production facility with a greenhouse for growing tomatoes on top. The novelty of this projects and its claim for sustainability lies in combining these two productions and utilizing synergies between them as well as employing an innovative technological...

  18. Future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    International involvement in particle physics is what the International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA) is all about. At the latest Future Perspectives meeting at Brookhaven from 5-10 October (after a keynote speech by doyen Viktor Weisskopf, who regretted the emergence of 'a nationalistic trend'), ICFA reviewed progress and examined its commitments in the light of the evolving world particle physics scene. Particular aims were to review worldwide accelerator achievements and plans, to survey the work of the four panels, and to discuss ICFA's special role in future cooperation in accelerator construction and use, and in research and development work for both accelerators and for detectors

  19. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2015-01-01

    contingent statements. The problem of future contingents is interwoven with a number of issues in theology, philosophy, logic, semantics of natural language, computer science, and applied mathematics. The theological issue of how to reconcile the assumption of God's foreknowledge with the freedom and moral...... accountability of human beings has been a main impetus to the discussion and a major inspiration to the development of various logical models of time and future contingents. This theological issue is connected with the general philosophical question of determinism versus indeterminism. Within logic, the relation...... about the future. Finally, it should be mentioned that temporal logic has found a remarkable application in computer science and applied mathematics. In the late 1970s the first computer scientists realised the relevance of temporal logic for the purposes of computer science (see Hasle and Øhrstrøm 2004)....

  20. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    contingent statements. The problem of future contingents is interwoven with a number of issues in theology, philosophy, logic, semantics of natural language, computer science, and applied mathematics. The theological issue of how to reconcile the assumption of God's foreknowledge with the freedom and moral...... accountability of human beings has been a main impetus to the discussion and a major inspiration to the development of various logical models of time and future contingents. This theological issue is connected with the general philosophical question of determinism versus indeterminism. Within logic, the relation...... about the future. Finally, it should be mentioned that temporal logic has found a remarkable application in computer science and applied mathematics. In the late 1970s the first computer scientists realised the relevance of temporal logic for the purposes of computer science (see Hasle and Øhrstrøm 2004)....

  1. Future Savvy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Adam

    There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

  2. Energy Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

  3. Focal points 2010. Mobility with future - correct investment today. Environmental protection - investment restraint for agriculture? Engine for the climate policy: emission trading; Schwerpunkte 2010. Mobilitaet mit Zukunft - heute richtig investieren. Umweltschutz - Investitionshemmnis fuer die Landwirtschaft? Motor fuer die Klimapolitik: Der Emissionshandel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ittershagen, Martin; Mavromati, Fotini (comps.)

    2010-04-14

    The publication of the German Federal environmental agency on the focal points 2010 covers the following topics: impetus for an ecological-economic policy; mobility with future -best investment for today: more environmentally compatible investments in traffic infrastructure, better technology - more efficiency, missing charging of environmental cost induces wrong stimuli; environmental protection - investment restraints for agriculture? Engine for climate policy: emission trading; the Federal environmental agency: bridge between science and politics, the Federal environmental agency for mankind and environment; data and facts; publications of the employees.

  4. Global emissions inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dignon, J.

    1995-07-01

    Atmospheric chemistry determines the concentrations of most of the important greenhouse gases except for carbon dioxide. The rate of removal of the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also controlled by atmospheric chemistry. The indirect effects of chemical forcing resulting from the chemical interactions of other species can also affect the concentrations of radiatively important gases such as ozone. In order to establish the contribution of any possible climatic change attributable to individual greenhouse gases, spatially and temporally resolved estimates of their emissions need to be established. Unfortunately, for most of the radiatively important species the global magnitudes of their individual fluxes are not known to better than a factor of two and their spatial distributions are even more poorly characterized. Efforts to estimate future projections of potential impacts and to monitor international agreements will require continued research to narrow the uncertainties of magnitude and geographical distribution of emissions

  5. Iraq's future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, S.

    1998-01-01

    The large oil reserves of Iraq make it an important player in the long-term political energy world. This article briefly reviews the oil industry''s development and current status in Iraq and discusses the planned oil and gas field development. Finally there is a political discussion regarding the future of Iraq in terms of religion, race and neighbouring countries. (UK)

  6. Bitcoin futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøgger, Søren Bundgaard

    2018-01-01

    Med introduktionen af et futures-marked er Bitcoin-eksponering blevet tilgængelig for en bredere gruppe af investorer, som hidtil ikke har kunnet eller villet tilgå det underliggende marked for Bitcoin. Artiklen finder, at kontrakterne umiddelbart favoriserer spekulanter på bekostning af hedgers og...

  7. Biomass burning: Combustion emissions, satellite imagery, and biogenic emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.; Cofer, W.R III; Rhinehart, R.P.; Cahoon, D.R. J.; Winstead, E.L.; Sebacher, S.; Sebacher, D.I.; Stocks, B.J.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter deals with two different, but related, aspects of biomass burning. The first part of the chapter deals with a technique to estimate the instantaneous emissions of trace gases produced by biomass burning using satellite imagery. The second part of the chapter concerns the recent discovery that burning results in significantly enhanced biogenic emissions of N 2 O, NO, and CH 4 . Hence, biomass burning has both an immediate and long-term impact on the production of trace gases to the atmosphere. The objective of this research is to better assess and quantify the role of this research is to better assess and quantify the role and impact of biomass as a driver for global change. It will be demonstrated that satellite imagery of fires may be used to estimate combustion emissions and may in the future be used to estimate the long-term postburn biogenic emissions of trace gases to the atmosphere

  8. Climate/chemistry feedbacks and biogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyle, John A; Warwick, Nicola; Yang, Xin; Young, Paul J; Zeng, Guang

    2007-07-15

    The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere is affected by anthropogenic emissions and is projected to change in the future. Model calculations indicate that the change in surface ozone at some locations could be large and have significant implications for human health. The calculations depend on the precise scenarios used for the anthropogenic emissions and on the details of the feedback processes included in the model. One important factor is how natural biogenic emissions will change in the future. We carry out a sensitivity calculation to address the possible increase in isoprene emissions consequent on increased surface temperature in a future climate. The changes in ozone are significant but depend crucially on the background chemical regime. In these calculations, we find that increased isoprene will increase ozone in the Northern Hemisphere but decrease ozone in the tropics. We also consider the role of bromine compounds in tropospheric chemistry and consider cases where, in a future climate, the impact of bromine could change.

  9. Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mbuthi, P.N.

    1998-01-01

    This study quantifies greenhouse gas emissions from Kenya's energy activities. It is organised in four major sections, namely, an overview of the energy sector; data sources and methodology of analysis; results and recommendations for future climate change mitigation

  10. Positron Emission Tomography (PET)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welch, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) assesses biochemical processes in the living subject, producing images of function rather than form. Using PET, physicians are able to obtain not the anatomical information provided by other medical imaging techniques, but pictures of physiological activity. In metaphoric terms, traditional imaging methods supply a map of the body's roadways, its, anatomy; PET shows the traffic along those paths, its biochemistry. This document discusses the principles of PET, the radiopharmaceuticals in PET, PET research, clinical applications of PET, the cost of PET, training of individuals for PET, the role of the United States Department of Energy in PET, and the futures of PET. 22 figs

  11. Positron Emission Tomography (PET)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welch, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) assesses biochemical processes in the living subject, producing images of function rather than form. Using PET, physicians are able to obtain not the anatomical information provided by other medical imaging techniques, but pictures of physiological activity. In metaphoric terms, traditional imaging methods supply a map of the body's roadways, its, anatomy; PET shows the traffic along those paths, its biochemistry. This document discusses the principles of PET, the radiopharmaceuticals in PET, PET research, clinical applications of PET, the cost of PET, training of individuals for PET, the role of the United States Department of Energy in PET, and the futures of PET. 22 figs.

  12. Positron Emission Tomography (PET)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, M. J.

    1990-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) assesses biochemical processes in the living subject, producing images of function rather than form. Using PET, physicians are able to obtain not the anatomical information provided by other medical imaging techniques, but pictures of physiological activity. In metaphoric terms, traditional imaging methods supply a map of the body's roadways, its, anatomy; PET shows the traffic along those paths, its biochemistry. This document discusses the principles of PET, the radiopharmaceuticals in PET, PET research, clinical applications of PET, the cost of PET, training of individuals for PET, the role of the United States Department of Energy in PET, and the futures of PET.

  13. Robot Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Anja; Grindsted Nielsen, Sally; Jochum, Elizabeth Ann

    Robots are increasingly used in health care settings, e.g., as homecare assistants and personal companions. One challenge for personal robots in the home is acceptance. We describe an innovative approach to influencing the acceptance of care robots using theatrical performance. Live performance...... is a useful testbed for developing and evaluating what makes robots expressive; it is also a useful platform for designing robot behaviors and dialogue that result in believable characters. Therefore theatre is a valuable testbed for studying human-robot interaction (HRI). We investigate how audiences...... perceive social robots interacting with humans in a future care scenario through a scripted performance. We discuss our methods and initial findings, and outline future work....

  14. Future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, R.J. Jr.

    2004-01-01

    Topics presented concerning the future developments in risk analysis are: safety goals, US severe accident policy, code developments, research programs, analyses and operation action, linking with the deterministic analyses. Principle consideration in risk is defined as protection of both general population, and nearby residents. The principal goal should be consistent with risk of other man-caused activities, the cost benefit after minimum safety levels are achieved, and proportional to benefits to be gained

  15. Future of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, John

    2005-01-01

    Australia has one of the most cost-effective energy conversion and delivery systems in the world. We are blessed with abundant, high-quality fossil fuels consisting mainly of coal, gas and (diminishing) oil resources. However, this past blessing is also a future curse as this fuel mix, coupled with limits to hydroelectric growth and no nuclear generation capacity, has endowed Australia with one of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP in the developed world (currently 43 per cent above the International Energy Agency average). This prompted Claude Mandil, head of the IEA, to observe: 'Environmental sustainability represent Australia's greatest energy challenge, with high and growing carbon dioxide emissions.' The challenge for Australia is how to make the massive cuts in GHG emissions required to minimise our world trade risks (which will come at a cost, and put pressure on our energy cost-effectiveness) while maintaining an internationally competitive energy sector. This challenge is exacerbated by a healthy national growth rate which will be accompanied by at least a 50 per cent growth in energy demand by 2020, with a doubling by 2050. Electricity industry projections predict an investment in new generation capacity well in excess of $30 billion to keep up with demand over the next two decades. The stark reality is that if we con tinue to supply and use energy the way we do now, we may as well forget about stabilising our GHG emissions from the energy sector, let alone reducing them in the future. This urgent situation presents a huge opportunity for the introduction of new and improved low-emission energy conversion technologies and demand management systems that vastly reduce GHG emissions per unit of productivity - in fact, an opportunity to transform Australia's energy sector to levels of innovation, social acceptance and environmental performance that has no precedent in this country. We have little choice other than to make a start. Are

  16. Ninth wood energy symposium - Reduction of fine-dust emissions and power generation as part of a future power supply system; 9. Holzenergie-Symposium - Feinstaubminderung und Stromerzeugung im Rahmen der zukuenftigen Energieversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nussbaumer, T. (ed.)

    2006-07-01

    This comprehensive report is published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE). A total of fourteen papers were presented at the symposium on the following subjects: Federal Action-Plan in the wood-firing area and emission limits, Fair-Firing - an Action Plan for the prevention of increased emissions and illegal incineration of wastes, fine-dust from wood-fired systems in comparison with diesel soot from the health point of view, practical experience with low-particle, pellets-fired systems, basics and technologies for the precipitation of fine-dust and the influence of particle characteristics and mode of operation as well as two papers on the development of electrical precipitators for wood-fired systems from 200 kW upwards and the practical experience gained with them. Further, papers are presented that deal with small-size electrostatic precipitators, flameless combustion for NO{sub x} reduction and modern pellets technology. The potential and economic viability of wood fuels for the generation of electricity are discussed and a 7 MW{sub e} wood-fired power station is looked at. Finally, the options open for providing a secure supply of energy in Europe are discussed and the role to be played by biomass is examined.

  17. Elemental composition of current automotive braking materials and derived air emission factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulskotte, J.H.J.; Roskam, G.D.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.

    2014-01-01

    Wear-related PM emissions are an important constituent of total PM emissions from road transport. Due to ongoing (further) exhaust emission reduction wear emissions may become the dominant PM source from road transport in the near future. The chemical composition of the wear emissions is crucial

  18. Future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Croce, A.

    1991-01-01

    According to George Woodwell, founder of the Woods Hole Research Center, due the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and accelerated respiration, the net annual increase of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, to the 750 billion tonnes already present in the earth's atmosphere, is in the order of 3 to 5 billion tonnes. Around the world, scientists, investigating the probable effects of this increase on the earth's future climate, are now formulating coupled air and ocean current models which take account of water temperature and salinity dependent carbon dioxide exchange mechanisms acting between the atmosphere and deep layers of ocean waters

  19. Future development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavitz, J.; Hetherington, C.

    1997-01-01

    Issues regarding future development by oil and gas companies in Canada's Arctic and the Beaufort Sea were discussed. It was suggested in the Berger report that Northern development should be under the control of the people whose lives and economy are being changed. Aboriginal people are now much more sophisticated politically, and have a better understanding of what is involved. Most of them would like the financial benefits from development, but the development would have to be on their terms. Most people involved with Arctic oil exploration feel that there is enough oil in the Arctic to warrant production. (Reserves in the Beaufort Sea are estimated at two billion barrels of good quality oil). If development were to continue, there exist two methods of transportation to move the oil to market. Gulf, Imperial Oil and Panarctic favour the use of pipelines, whereas Dome Petroleum Ltd. favours the use of ice-breaking tankers. In each case the favored option seems to depend upon the location of the company's leases, the capital and operating costs, and the potential environmental impacts. Undoubtedly, any future development will be guided by the scientific information and technical expertise of oil industry pioneers of the 1960s and the 1970s, and the wisdom gained from the experiences of the many participants whose views and insights are recorded in this book

  20. European initiatives for modeling emissions from transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joumard, Robert; Hickman, A. John; Samaras, Zissis

    1998-01-01

    In Europe there have been many cooperative studies into transport emission inventories since the late 80s. These cover the scope of CORINAIR program involving experts from seven European Community laboratories addressing only road transport emissions at national level. These also include the latest...... covered are the composition of the vehicle fleets, emission factors, driving statistics and the modeling approach. Many of the European initiatives aim also at promoting further cooperation between national laboratories and at defining future research needs. An assessment of these future needs...... is presented from a European point of view....

  1. Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paasonen, Pauli; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Klimont, Zbigniew; Visschedijk, Antoon; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Amann, Markus

    2016-06-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa), coke production (Russia and China), and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation) scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol-cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response to tightening

  2. Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Paasonen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa, coke production (Russia and China, and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol–cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response

  3. Future Talks,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Defeyt

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available La conservation des matériaux modernes et les difficultés qui la caractérisent étaient l’objet du colloque international Future Talks, organisé par Die Neue Sammlung, The International Design Museum, les 22 et 23 octobre 2009 à Munich. Conservateurs-restaurateurs spécialisés, représentants des  institutions muséales les plus prestigieuses d’Europe et d’outre-Atlantique ainsi que chercheurs en sciences appliquées y ont présenté leurs travaux et recherches. En matière de design, d’art moderne e...

  4. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

  5. Positron emission tomography in oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1988-01-01

    This report describes the current and potential uses of positron emission tomography in clinical medicine and research related to oncology. Assessment will be possible of metabolism and physiology of tumors and their effects on adjacent tissues. Specific probes are likely to be developed for target sites on tumors, including monoclonal antibodies and specific growth factors that recognize tumors. To date, most oncological applications of positron emission tomography tracers have been qualitative; in the future, quantitative metabolic measurements should aid in the evaluation of tumor biology and response to treatment

  6. Current puzzles and future possibilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagamiya, S.

    1982-02-01

    Four current puzzles and several future experimental possibilities in high-energy nuclear collision research are discussed. These puzzles are (1) entropy, (2) hydrodynamic flow, (3) anomalon, and (4) particle emission at backward angles in proton-nucleus collisions. The last one seems not to be directly related to the subject of the present school. But it is, because particle emission into the region far beyond the nucleon-nucleon kinematical limit is an interesting subject common for both proton-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions, and the basic mechanism involved is strongly related in these two cases. Future experimental possibilities are described which include: (1) possibilities of studying multibaryonic excited states, (2) applications of neutron-rich isotopes, and (3) other needed experimental tasks. 72 references

  7. Automated Vehicle Regulation: An Energy and Emissions Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Aaron

    2016-05-18

    This presentation provides a summary of the current automated vehicles polices in the United States and how they related to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The presentation then looks at future automated vehicle trends that will increase and reduce GHG emissions and what current policies utilized in other areas of law could be adapted for automated vehicle GHG emissions.

  8. Useful application of future exhaust aftertreatment technologies, derived from over 30 years experience with eco-friendly vehicles; Sinnvoller Einsatz kuenftiger Abgasreinigungstechnologien, abgeleitet aus ueber 30 Jahren Erfahrung mit umweltfreundlichen Fahrzeugen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enderle, C. [DaimlerChrysler AG, Mercedes-Benz Technology Center, Stuttgart (Germany)

    2006-07-01

    The article reviews the development of emissions reduction in gasoline and diesel engines. Along with the historical developments and the factors driving them, it describes the most important characteristics and Mercedes-Benz's most important requirements for feasible post-treatment of exhaust gases. Adoption of the three-way catalytic converter has made the gasoline engine into a clean powerplant which easily meets even the strictest emission standards anywhere in the world. The next development goals for the gasoline engine are described as keeping emissions low while increasing fuel economy. One of the key technologies for achieving this is the NO{sub x} storage catalytic converter. In diesels, adoption of the diesel particle filter means that the conflict between particle reduction and nitrogen oxide reduction is receding into the background. But two new conflicts are emerging with the tightening of nitrous oxide limits and engine redesign measures to reduce NO{sub x}: hydrocarbons versus nitrogen oxide, and consumption versus nitrogen oxide. In addition to good drivability, the economy of the diesel engine is an important reason for its market success. Thus it is important for Mercedes- Benz to choose a NO{sub x} post-treatment that incurs the fewest possible consumption disadvantages and yet has the highest possible efficiency, so that engine-design solutions for reducing NO{sub x} can be restricted to measures that are consumption-neutral. Both the NO{sub x} storage catalytic converter and the SCR (Selective Catalytic Reduction) system will be described. The system that best meets overall requirements is the SCR-urea process. (orig.)

  9. Future food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlqvist, Mark L

    2016-12-01

    Food systems have changed markedly with human settlement and agriculture, industrialisation, trade, migration and now the digital age. Throughout these transitions, there has been a progressive population explosion and net ecosystem loss and degradation. Climate change now gathers pace, exacerbated by ecological dysfunction. Our health status has been challenged by a developing people-environment mismatch. We have regarded ecological conquest and innovative technology as solutions, but have not understood how ecologically dependent and integrated we are. We are ecological creatures interfaced by our sensoriness, microbiomes, shared regulatory (endocrine) mechanisms, immune system, biorhythms and nutritional pathways. Many of us are 'nature-deprived'. We now suffer what might be termed ecological health disorders (EHD). If there were less of us, nature's resilience might cope, but more than 9 billion people by 2050 is probably an intolerable demand on the planet. Future food must increasingly take into account the pressures on ecosystem-dependent food systems, with foods probably less biodiverse, although eating in this way allows optimal health; energy dysequilibrium with less physical activity and foods inappropriately energy dense; and less socially-conducive food habits. 'Personalised Nutrition', with extensive and resource-demanding nutrigenomic, metabolomic and microbiomic data may provide partial health solutions in clinical settings, but not be justified for ethical, risk management or sustainability reasons in public health. The globally prevalent multidimensional malnutritional problems of food insecurity, quality and equity require local, regional and global action to prevent further ecosystem degradation as well as to educate, provide sustainable livelihoods and encourage respectful social discourse and practice about the role of food.

  10. An explanation of carbon emission markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After having outlined the necessity to drastically reduce anthropic carbon emissions, and discussed how to associate standards, taxes and quota markets, the authors describe how carbon emission markets have emerged: the Kyoto protocol, the emission trade scheme (ETS) of the European Union, other carbon markets (existing or in preparation). They introduce and present four pillars of carbon emission markets: the allocation process, the reliability of emission measurement and control, market records and transparency, and introduction of flexibility. They examine the possibility of success in the development of a greenhouse gas emission market. The authors discuss the problems raised by a design of carbon markets by government and their use by private actors, how to connect existing or future regional carbon markets, the integration of forest and agriculture through new compensatory mechanisms, how to face carbon leaks by widening carbon markets

  11. Future climate. Engineering solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferdinand, J.F.; Hagedorn-Rasmussen, P.; Fonnesbech, B.

    2009-09-15

    Future Climate Engineering Solutions - Joint Report is the common output and a documentation of more than 1 year's effort by 13 engineering associations - in 12 countries - to demonstrate how technologies can combat climate change. The report consists of three parts: Summaries of 10 national climate plans and technology prospects, 5 Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call from Engineers to create a new global climate treaty. The basic assumption of the project is recognition that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project definition of a sustainable level is equivalent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is most likely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 deg. C. The Future Climate website www.futureclimate.info holds more information about the project, including possibility to download project material, including the full national climate plans.

  12. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

    2014-01-01

    Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  13. Positron emission tomography. Positronemisionstomografi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolwig, T G; Haunsoe, S; Dahlgaard Hove, J; Hesse, B; Hoejgard, L; Jensen, M; Paulson, O B; Hastrup Svendsen, J; Soelvsten Soerensen, S

    1994-10-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) is a method for quantitative imaging of regional physiological and biochemical parameters. Positron emitting radioactive isotopes can be produced by a cyclotron, eg. the biologically important carbon ([sup 11]C), oxygen ([sup 15]O), and nitrogen ([sup 13]N) elements. With the tomographic principles of the PET scanner the quantitative distribution of the administered isotopes can be determined and images can be provided as well as dynamic information on blood flow, metabolism and receptor function. In neurology PET has been used for investigations on numerous physiological processes in the brain: circulation, metabolism and receptor studies. In Parkinson's disease PET studies have been able to localize the pathology specifically, and in early stroke PET technique can outline focal areas with living but non-functioning cells, and this could make it possible to intervene in this early state. With positron emission tomography a quantitative evaluation of myocardial blood flow, glucose and fatty acid metabolism can be made as well as combined assessments of blood flow and metabolism. Combined studies of blood flow and metabolism can determine whether myocardial segments with abnormal motility consist of necrotic or viable tissue, thereby delineating effects of revascularisation. In the future it will probably be possible to characterize the myocardial receptor status in different cardiac diseases. The PET technique is used in oncology for clinical as well as more basic research on tumor perfusion and metabolism. Further, tumor uptake of positron labelled cytotoxic drugs might predict the clinical benefit of treatment. (au) (19 refs.).

  14. Positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolwig, T.G.; Haunsoe, S.; Dahlgaard Hove, J.; Hesse, B.; Hoejgard, L.; Jensen, M.; Paulson, O.B.; Hastrup Svendsen, J.; Soelvsten Soerensen, S.

    1994-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) is a method for quantitative imaging of regional physiological and biochemical parameters. Positron emitting radioactive isotopes can be produced by a cyclotron, eg. the biologically important carbon ( 11 C), oxygen ( 15 O), and nitrogen ( 13 N) elements. With the tomographic principles of the PET scanner the quantitative distribution of the administered isotopes can be determined and images can be provided as well as dynamic information on blood flow, metabolism and receptor function. In neurology PET has been used for investigations on numerous physiological processes in the brain: circulation, metabolism and receptor studies. In Parkinson's disease PET studies have been able to localize the pathology specifically, and in early stroke PET technique can outline focal areas with living but non-functioning cells, and this could make it possible to intervene in this early state. With positron emission tomography a quantitative evaluation of myocardial blood flow, glucose and fatty acid metabolism can be made as well as combined assessments of blood flow and metabolism. Combined studies of blood flow and metabolism can determine whether myocardial segments with abnormal motility consist of necrotic or viable tissue, thereby delineating effects of revascularisation. In the future it will probably be possible to characterize the myocardial receptor status in different cardiac diseases. The PET technique is used in oncology for clinical as well as more basic research on tumor perfusion and metabolism. Further, tumor uptake of positron labelled cytotoxic drugs might predict the clinical benefit of treatment. (au) (19 refs.)

  15. Emission Inventory for Fugitive Emissions in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Nielsen, Malene

    This report presents the methodology and data used in the Danish inventory of fugitive emissions from fuels for the years until 2007. The inventory of fugitive emissions includes CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, dioxin, PAH and particulate matter. In 2007 the total Danish emission of greenhouse...

  16. The new 1.8 l TFSI engine from Audi. Pt. 2. Mixture formation, combustion method and turbocharging; Der neue 1,8-L-TFSI-Motor von Audi. T. 2. Gemischbildung, Brennverfahren und Aufladung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heiduk, Thomas; Kuhn, Michael; Stichlmeir, Maximilian; Unselt, Florian [Audi AG, Ingolstadt (Germany)

    2011-07-15

    The launch of the new 1.8 l TFSI engine marks the third generation of the successful four-cylinder gasoline engine family from Audi. With consistently reduced frictional losses, the advanced combustion process and new mono-scroll turbocharger and electric wastegate technology, the engine represents a new benchmark in terms of performance and fuel-efficiency. The power plant has already been configured to meet even the strictest future emissions standards worldwide. The mixture formation, the combustion process and the turbocharger of the new engine are described below. The base engine and the thermomanagement system were described in the first part of this article in MTZ 6. (orig.)

  17. Understanding Emissions in East Asia - The KORUS 2015 Emissions Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, J. H.; Kim, Y.; Park, R.; Choi, Y.; Simpson, I. J.; Emmons, L. K.; Streets, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    The air quality over Northeast Asia have been deteriorated for decades due to high population and energy use in the region. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse sometimes. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are much higher to effectively protect public health and ecosystems. Two aircraft filed campaigns targeting year 2016, MAPS-Seoul and KORUS-AQ, have been organized to study the air quality of over Korea and East Asia relating to chemical evolution, emission inventories, trans-boundary contribution, and satellite application. We developed a new East-Asia emissions inventory, named KORUS2015, based on NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment), in support of the filed campaigns. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, and PM2.5. Since the KORUS2015 emissions framework was developed using the integrated climate and air quality assessment modeling framework (i.e. GAINS) and is fully connected with the comprehensive emission processing/modeling systems (i.e. SMOKE, KU-EPS, and MEGAN), it can be effectively used to support atmospheric field campaigns for science and policy. During the field campaigns, we are providing modeling emissions inventory to participating air quality models, such as CMAQ, WRF-Chem, CAMx, GEOS-Chem, MOZART, for forecasting and post-analysis modes. Based on initial assessment of those results, we are improving our emissions, such as VOC speciation, biogenic VOCs modeling. From the 2nditeration between emissions and modeling/measurement, further analysis results will be presented at the conference. Acknowledgements : This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Climate Change

  18. Future heat waves and surface ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

    2018-06-01

    A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

  19. Biogenic emissions of isoprenoids and NO in China and comparison to anthropogenic emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tie Xuexi; Li Guohui; Ying, Zhuming; Guenther, Alex; Madronich, Sasha

    2006-01-01

    northeastern and southern China, there are relatively large biogenic emissions of isoprenoids, leading to an important impact on the ozone production in these regions. Furthermore, the emissions of isoprenoids are highest during summer and noontime, which correlates to the peak of ozone production period. For example, the ratio between summer and winter for the emissions of isoprenoids is about 15 in China. As a result, the biogenic emissions of isoprenoids are significantly larger than the anthropogenic emissions of VOCs in China during daytime in summer. Biogenic NO emissions are mostly produced by agricultural soils which co-exist with large populations and human activity. As a result, the biogenic emissions of NO are mostly overlapped with the anthropogenic emissions of NO, leading to the enhancement in NO concentrations in the high anthropogenic NO emission regions. Finally, the future emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes over China are estimated. The results show that the future biogenic emissions may increase significantly due to land cover changes in central eastern China, which could have a very important impact on ozone formation in this region. However, these estimates are highly uncertain and are presented as a potential scenario to show the importance of possible changes of biogenic emissions in China

  20. Biogenic emissions of isoprenoids and NO in China and comparison to anthropogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tie, Xuexi; Li, Guohui; Ying, Zhuming; Guenther, Alex; Madronich, Sasha

    2006-12-01

    northeastern and southern China, there are relatively large biogenic emissions of isoprenoids, leading to an important impact on the ozone production in these regions. Furthermore, the emissions of isoprenoids are highest during summer and noontime, which correlates to the peak of ozone production period. For example, the ratio between summer and winter for the emissions of isoprenoids is about 15 in China. As a result, the biogenic emissions of isoprenoids are significantly larger than the anthropogenic emissions of VOCs in China during daytime in summer. Biogenic NO emissions are mostly produced by agricultural soils which co-exist with large populations and human activity. As a result, the biogenic emissions of NO are mostly overlapped with the anthropogenic emissions of NO, leading to the enhancement in NO concentrations in the high anthropogenic NO emission regions. Finally, the future emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes over China are estimated. The results show that the future biogenic emissions may increase significantly due to land cover changes in central eastern China, which could have a very important impact on ozone formation in this region. However, these estimates are highly uncertain and are presented as a potential scenario to show the importance of possible changes of biogenic emissions in China.

  1. Trends in onroad transportation energy and emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H Christopher

    2018-06-01

    trends are addressed with regard to technology, emissions controls, vehicle operations, emission measurements, impacts on exposure, and impacts on public health. Without specific policies to the contrary, fossil fuels are likely to continue to be the major source of on-road vehicle energy consumption. Fuel economy and emission standards are generally effective in achieving reductions per unit of vehicle activity. However, the number of vehicles and miles traveled will increase. Total energy use and emissions depend on factors such as fuels, technologies, land use, demographics, economics, road design, vehicle operation, societal values, and others that affect demand for transportation, mode choice, energy use, and emissions. Thus, there are many opportunities to influence future trends in vehicle energy use and emissions.

  2. Efficiency of European emissions markets: Lessons and implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar; Hoque, Ariful

    2011-01-01

    While prior studies have shown that emission rights and futures contracts on emission rights are efficiently priced, there are no studies on the efficiency of the options market. Therefore, this study fills the gap. We examine empirical evidence regarding the efficiency of the options market for emissions rights in Europe. We employ the put-call parity approach to test the efficiency of options on emission rights traded in the European market. This implies that firms can trade options on emission rights in addition to other existing strategies in order to manage their greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: → Efficiency of the European options market for emissions. → Design implications for the development of emissions trading schemes in other countries. → Governance issues pertaining to emissions trading.

  3. Hydrogen: Fueling the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leisch, Jennifer

    2007-01-01

    As our dependence on foreign oil increases and concerns about global climate change rise, the need to develop sustainable energy technologies is becoming increasingly significant. Worldwide energy consumption is expected to double by the year 2050, as will carbon emissions along with it. This increase in emissions is a product of an ever-increasing demand for energy, and a corresponding rise in the combustion of carbon containing fossil fuels such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Undisputable scientific evidence indicates significant changes in the global climate have occurred in recent years. Impacts of climate change and the resulting atmospheric warming are extensive, and know no political or geographic boundaries. These far-reaching effects will be manifested as environmental, economic, socioeconomic, and geopolitical issues. Offsetting the projected increase in fossil energy use with renewable energy production will require large increases in renewable energy systems, as well as the ability to store and transport clean domestic fuels. Storage and transport of electricity generated from intermittent resources such as wind and solar is central to the widespread use of renewable energy technologies. Hydrogen created from water electrolysis is an option for energy storage and transport, and represents a pollution-free source of fuel when generated using renewable electricity. The conversion of chemical to electrical energy using fuel cells provides a high efficiency, carbon-free power source. Hydrogen serves to blur the line between stationary and mobile power applications, as it can be used as both a transportation fuel and for stationary electricity generation, with the possibility of a distributed generation energy infrastructure. Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies will be presented as possible pollution-free solutions to present and future energy concerns. Recent hydrogen-related research at SLAC in hydrogen production, fuel cell catalysis, and hydrogen

  4. Crafting our energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van Schagen, Frank

    2005-01-01

    The new Asia-Pacific Greenhouse Agreement offers Australia a great opportunity to take full advantage of both its brains and its energy resources. The energy debate is often, simplistically, characterised as coal versus nuclear, or non-renewables versus renewables. In reality we will need a mix of energy sources to power our economy, cleanly, into the future. The issues are cost, environmental protection, national security, skills and security of energy supply. If we wish our economy to continue growing at present rates, we will need 50 per cent more energy in 2030 than we use today - and it is not too soon to start planning how we will produce it. We have around 500 years' supply of coal resources at present rates of usage. Power generation from coal is capable of achieving zero, or near zero, carbon emissions using technologies such as oxy-fuel combustion or IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycle). In both, C0 2 can be captured and stored underground. The greenhouse debate has revived interest in nuclear power generation. The cost of generating electricity with nuclear is similar to clean coal. However, we would have to start a nuclear power industry from a very small base, buying costly generation plant and training or importing an entire, highly-skilled workforce, in competition with other countries. Waste disposal is an issue for both coal and nuclear. For coal, the main option is carbon capture and its storage in deep saline aquifers. This technology is well understood and widely used by the oil and gas industry but we have to determine the most suitable places and techniques, and we have to build the infrastructure. Nuclear waste storage is also well-understood. Which technology we choose depends on an evaluation of both short and long term risks for the community and environment. One thing that Australia must get right is the economics. The wrong decision will cost us jobs, if not entire industries and regions. While renewables like solar and wind are

  5. Life cycle emissions from renewable energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.; Watkiss, P.; Thorpe, T.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology used in the ETSU review, together with the detailed results for three of the technologies studied: wind turbines, photovoltaic systems and small, stand-alone solar thermal systems. These emissions are then compared with those calculated for both other renewables and fossil fuel technology on a similar life cycle basis. The life cycle emissions associated with renewable energy technology vary considerably. They are lowest for those technologies where the renewable resource has been concentrated in some way (e.g. over distance in the case of wind and hydro, or over time in the case of energy crops). Wind turbines have amongst the lowest emissions of all renewables and are lower than those for fossil fuel generation, often by over an order of magnitude. Photovoltaics and solar thermal systems have the highest life cycle emissions of all the renewable energy technologies under review. However, their emissions of most pollutants are also much lower than those associated with fossil fuel technologies. In addition, the emissions associated with PV are likely to fall further in the future as the conversion efficiency of PV cells increases and manufacturing technology switches to thin film technologies, which are less energy intensive. Combining the assessments of life cycle emissions of renewables with predictions made by the World Energy Council (WEC) of their future deployment has allowed estimates to be made of amount by which renewables could reduce the future global emissions of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. It estimated that under the WEC's 'Ecologically Driven' scenario, renewables might lead to significant reductions of between 3650 and 8375 Mt in annual CO 2 emissions depending on the fossil fuel technology they are assumed to displace. (author)

  6. Mercury emission from crematories in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Takaoka

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic sources of mercury emissions have a significant impact on global pollution. Therefore, finding uncharacterised sources and assessing the emissions from these sources are important. However, limited data are available worldwide on mercury emissions from crematories. In Japan, 99.9% of dead bodies are cremated, which is the highest percentage in the world, and more than 1600 crematories are in operation. We thus focused on emissions from crematories in Japan. The number of targeted facilities was seven, and we used continuous emission monitoring to measure the mercury concentrations and investigate mercury behaviour. The total mercury concentrations in stack gases were a few μg/Nm3 (normal cubic meters. Considering the time profile of mercury and its species in cremations, the findings confirmed that the mercury in stack gas originated from dental amalgam. The amount of mercury emissions was calculated using the total concentration and gas flow rate. Furthermore, the annual amount of mercury emission from crematories in Japan was estimated by using the total number of corpses. The emission amount was considerably lower than that estimated in the United Kingdom. From statistical analyses on population demographics and measurements, future total emissions from crematories were also predicted. As a result, the amount of mercury emitted by crematories will likely increase by 2.6-fold from 2007 to 2037.

  7. Growing America's Energy Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-06-01

    The emerging U.S. bioenergy industry provides a secure and growing supply of transportation fuels, biopower, and bioproducts produced from a range of abundant, renewable biomass resources. Bioenergy can help ensure a secure, sustainable, and economically sound future by reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, developing domestic clean energy sources, and generating domestic green jobs. Bioenergy can also help address growing concerns about climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to create a healthier environment for current and future generations.

  8. Plasma emission mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melrose, D.B.

    1985-01-01

    Only three emission processes are thought to play a role in solar radio emission: plasma emission, gyromagnetic emission and bremsstrahlung. In this chapter plasma emission is discussed and the processes involved in its production are treated, namely, the generation of Langmuir turbulence, the partial conversion into fundamental transverse radiation, production of secondary Langmuir waves and the generation of second-harmonic transverse radiation. (U.K.)

  9. Biofuels, vehicle emissions, and urban air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallington, Timothy J; Anderson, James E; Kurtz, Eric M; Tennison, Paul J

    2016-07-18

    Increased biofuel content in automotive fuels impacts vehicle tailpipe emissions via two mechanisms: fuel chemistry and engine calibration. Fuel chemistry effects are generally well recognized, while engine calibration effects are not. It is important that investigations of the impact of biofuels on vehicle emissions consider the impact of engine calibration effects and are conducted using vehicles designed to operate using such fuels. We report the results of emission measurements from a Ford F-350 fueled with either fossil diesel or a biodiesel surrogate (butyl nonanoate) and demonstrate the critical influence of engine calibration on NOx emissions. Using the production calibration the emissions of NOx were higher with the biodiesel fuel. Using an adjusted calibration (maintaining equivalent exhaust oxygen concentration to that of the fossil diesel at the same conditions by adjusting injected fuel quantities) the emissions of NOx were unchanged, or lower, with biodiesel fuel. For ethanol, a review of the literature data addressing the impact of ethanol blend levels (E0-E85) on emissions from gasoline light-duty vehicles in the U.S. is presented. The available data suggest that emissions of NOx, non-methane hydrocarbons, particulate matter (PM), and mobile source air toxics (compounds known, or suspected, to cause serious health impacts) from modern gasoline and diesel vehicles are not adversely affected by increased biofuel content over the range for which the vehicles are designed to operate. Future increases in biofuel content when accomplished in concert with changes in engine design and calibration for new vehicles should not result in problematic increases in emissions impacting urban air quality and may in fact facilitate future required emissions reductions. A systems perspective (fuel and vehicle) is needed to fully understand, and optimize, the benefits of biofuels when blended into gasoline and diesel.

  10. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  11. Ion cyclotron emission by spontaneous emission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Da Costa, O [Commission of the European Communities, Abingdon (United Kingdom). JET Joint Undertaking; Gresillon, D [Ecole Polytechnique, 91 - Palaiseau (France). Lab. de Physique des Milieux Ionises

    1994-07-01

    The goal of the study is to examine whether the spontaneous emission can account for ICE (ion cyclotron emission) experimental results, or part of them. A straightforward approach to plasma emission is chosen, investigating the near equilibrium wave radiation by gyrating ions, and thus building from the majority and fast fusion ions the plasma fluctuations and emission on the fast magnetoacoustic or compressional Alfven wave mode in the IC frequency range. Similarities with the ICE experiments are shown: the emission temperature in the presence of fast ions (even in a very small amount), the strong fast ion emission increase with the harmonic, the fine double-line splitting of each peak, the linear but not proportional increase of the peak width with the harmonic. 3 refs., 2 figs.

  12. Ion cyclotron emission by spontaneous emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Da Costa, O.; Gresillon, D.

    1994-01-01

    The goal of the study is to examine whether the spontaneous emission can account for ICE (ion cyclotron emission) experimental results, or part of them. A straightforward approach to plasma emission is chosen, investigating the near equilibrium wave radiation by gyrating ions, and thus building from the majority and fast fusion ions the plasma fluctuations and emission on the fast magnetoacoustic or compressional Alfven wave mode in the IC frequency range. Similarities with the ICE experiments are shown: the emission temperature in the presence of fast ions (even in a very small amount), the strong fast ion emission increase with the harmonic, the fine double-line splitting of each peak, the linear but not proportional increase of the peak width with the harmonic. 3 refs., 2 figs

  13. The Energy Future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, John; Bonino, Christopher A; Trainham, James A

    2018-06-07

    The foreseeable energy future will be driven by economics of known technologies and the desire to reduce CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. Renewable energy options are compared with each other and with the use of fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Economic analysis is used to determine the best of several alternatives. One can disagree on the detailed costs, including externalities such as climate change and air and water pollution. But the differences in capital and operating costs between known technologies are so significant that one can draw clear conclusions. Results show that renewable energy cannot compete with fossil fuels on a cost basis alone because energy is intrinsic to the molecule, except for hydroelectricity. However, fossil fuels are implicated in climate change. Using renewable energy exclusively, including transportation and electricity needs, could reduce the standard of living in the United States by 43% to 62%, which would correspond to the level in about 1970. If capture and sequester of CO 2 are implemented, the cost of using fossil fuels will increase, but they beat renewable energy handily as an economic way to produce clean energy.

  14. Thinking about the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lashof, D.; Schipper, L.

    1990-01-01

    The future evolution of global change and the atmosphere will depend largely on the paths of economic development and technological change, as well as on the physical, chemical, and biological processes of the Earth-atmosphere system. While we have no control over this system once gases enter the atmosphere, economic and technological change will be influenced by policy choices made at local, national, and international levels. This paper explores some of the paths the world might follow in the decades ahead and provides an indication of the relative climatic consequences under these alternatives. After a discussion of the economic and social factors that determine emissions, four scenarios of economic and technological development are presented. These scenarios cannot capture all the possibilities, of course; rather, they have been developed in order to explore the probable climatic effects under significantly different, but plausible, economic and technological conditions. The climatic implications of these scenarios are analyzed using an integrated framework. The chapter concludes with the results of this analysis and a comparison of these results with other studies

  15. Explosive growth in African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liousse, C; Rosset, R; Assamoi, E; Criqui, P; Granier, C

    2014-01-01

    Emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. There is currently no regional emissions inventory that provides estimates of anthropogenic combustion for the African continent. This work provides a quantification of the evolution of African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030, using a bottom-up method. This inventory predicts very large increases in black carbon, organic carbon, CO, NO x , SO 2 and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions if no emission regulations are implemented. This paper discusses the effectiveness of scenarios involving certain fuels, specific to Africa in each activity sector and each region (western, eastern, northern and southern Africa), to reduce the emissions. The estimated trends in African emissions are consistent with emissions provided by global inventories, but they display a larger range of values. African combustion emissions contributed significantly to global emissions in 2005. This contribution will increase more significantly by 2030: organic carbon emissions will for example make up 50% of the global emissions in 2030. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of African anthropogenic emissions could be similar to African biomass burning emissions around 2030. (paper)

  16. Vehicle Emissions Risk Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibrahem, L.G.

    2004-01-01

    Vehicle emissions are considered as a main source for air pollution. Emissions regulation is now well developed in most countries to meet cleaner air quality. Reducing emissions by using cleaner fuels, which meet certain specification, is not enough to get cleaner air, yet the vehicle technology is not improved. Here we will outline the following: - development in fuel specification and emissions regulation. main facts linking vehicle emissions, fuel properties and air quality. catalytic converter technology. Emissions sources: In modem cities, vehicle traffic is potentially a major source of emissions. However sometimes other sources of emissions from industry and other stationary sources can be equally important and include emissions that are of greater toxicity than those from vehicles

  17. Marine nitrous oxide emissions: An unknown liability for the international water sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Short, Michael D.; Peters, Gregory M.; Peirson, William L.; Ashbolt, Nicholas J.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • IPCC methodology for indirect marine nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions does not exist. • The water sector has an unknown N 2 O emissions liability from marine sewage disposal. • We model global sewage-nitrogen (N) emissions to coastal oceans during 1970–2050. • Emission factors for marine N 2 O will enable water sector N 2 O emissions accounting. • Industry benefits will include future revenue streams and better N emissions policy. -- Abstract: Reliable estimates of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential for setting effective climate policy at both the sector and national level. Current IPCC Guidelines for calculating nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from sewage management are both highly uncertain and incomplete; a major methodological gap relates to the calculation of indirect N 2 O emissions from sewage disposed to marine environments. Here we apply a novel approach to estimate past and future global sewage-nitrogen emissions to coastal oceans and the potential marine N 2 O emissions linked to this nitrogen source. Then, by estimating the future cost associated with this largely uncharacterized emission source, we demonstrate the industry significance of developing a methodology for estimating N 2 O emissions from marine receiving environments. The capacity to accurately estimate, monitor and report GHG emissions has important consequences for informing future policy decisions regarding both mitigation and adaptation. A robust N 2 O emissions estimation methodology for sewage-nitrogen disposed to coastal oceans will allow the international water sector to more accurately and comprehensively inventory its N 2 O emissions. This will in turn allow for proper accounting of related future emissions liabilities while also enabling the sector to capitalize on any future economic returns linked to this source – providing much-needed capital to support the sector's future infrastructure and climate change adaptation challenges

  18. Positron Computed Tomography: Current State, Clinical Results and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schelbert, H. R.; Phelps, M. E.; Kuhl, D. E.

    1980-09-01

    An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

  19. Positron computed tomography: current state, clinical results and future trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schelbert, H.R.; Phelps, M.E.; Kuhl, D.E.

    1980-09-01

    An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

  20. Positron computed tomography: current state, clinical results and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelbert, H.R.; Phelps, M.E.; Kuhl, D.E.

    1980-01-01

    An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends

  1. Risk Characterization for Future Training Scenarios at the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zakikhani, Mansour

    2004-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate potential human and ecological health risks associated with emission of pyrotechnic compounds during future training exercises at the Massachusetts Military Reservation...

  2. Risk Characterization for Future Training Scenarios at the Massachusetts Military Reservation (MMR), Final Results

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zakikhani, Mansour; Dortch, Mark S; Gerald, Jeffrey A; Hawkins, Melanie S

    2005-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate potential human and ecological health risks associated with emission of pyrotechnic compounds during future training exercises at the Massachusetts Military Reservation...

  3. SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

    1995-01-01

    Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  4. Interactions of Reduced Deforestation and the Carbon Market: The Role of Market Regulations and Future Commitments

    OpenAIRE

    Anger, Niels; Dixon, Alistair; Livengood, Erich

    2009-01-01

    Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has been proposed as a potentially inexpensive and plentiful source of emission abatement to supplement other longterm climate policies. However, critics doubt that REDD credits are environmentally equivalent to domestic emission reductions, and suggest an excess supply may disrupt carbon markets. In this context, we investigate the economic implications of emissions market regulations and future emissions reduction commitments, as ...

  5. Ammonia emissions in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Brian H.

    2012-01-01

    The NEC (National Emission Ceiling) directive has set targets for the 2010 ammonia emissions from a number of European countries. The target will be reached by most EU-countries and the total emission for EU-27 has been reduced by 22% from 1990 to 2007. Denmark is one of the countries with the la......The NEC (National Emission Ceiling) directive has set targets for the 2010 ammonia emissions from a number of European countries. The target will be reached by most EU-countries and the total emission for EU-27 has been reduced by 22% from 1990 to 2007. Denmark is one of the countries...

  6. EMISSION TRADING - CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS (R828631)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  7. Future perspectives: Diagnostic possibilities with positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelbert, H.R.; California Univ., Los Angeles; California Univ., Los Angeles

    1990-01-01

    While evaluation of regional myocardial metabolism for diagnostic purposes is currently confined to ischemic heart disease, the emergence and implementation of new tracer approaches is likely to expand the scope of clinical applications. Evaluation of neuronal control of the heart with tracers of adrenergic neuron densities and β-adrenergic and cholinergic post-synaptic activity promises to be useful in patients with electrical instability and with cardio-myopathies as well as for verifying responses to therapeutic interventions. The possibility to measure regional oxidative metabolism should further prove useful for distinguishing between residual oxidative and anaerobic metabolism in ischemia and thus prove useful for more accurate characterization of the ischemic injury. The method should further become useful for examining cardiac efficiency and detecting the effect of therapeutic interventions. Lastly, techniques for measurements of protein synthesis are likely to become important for defining myocardial maturation, compensatory adjustment of the myocardium to increased pressure and volume loading as well as assessment of repair processes after injury to myocardium. (orig.) [de

  8. Efficient EGR technology for future HD diesel engine emission targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baert, R.S.G.; Beckman, D.E.; Veen, A.

    1999-01-01

    Different systems for achieving short-route cooled EGR on turbocharged and aftercooled heavy-duty diesel engines have been tested on a 12 litre 315 kW engine with 4 valves per cylinder and an electronically controlled unit pump fuel injection system. In all of these systems the exhaust gas was

  9. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  10. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  11. Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse (EMCH) supports and promotes emissions modeling activities both internal and external to the EPA. Through this site, the EPA...

  12. National Emission Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The National Emission Inventory contains measured, modeled, and estimated data for emissions of all known source categories in the US (stationary sources, fires,...

  13. Emissions Trading Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn about emissions trading programs, also known as cap and trade programs, which are market-based policy tools for protecting human health and the environment by controlling emissions from a group of sources.

  14. What Is Emissions Trading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn the basics about how emissions trading uses a market-based policy tool used to control large amounts of pollution emissions from a group of sources in order to protect human health and the environment.

  15. World Emission RETRO ANTHRO

    Data.gov (United States)

    Washington University St Louis — Anthropogenic and vegetation fire emissions data were generated monthly covering a period of 1960 to 2000. Anthropogenic emissions in the RETRO inventory are derived...

  16. Emissions & Measurements - Black Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emissions and Measurement (EM) research activities performed within the National Risk Management Research Lab NRMRL) of EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) support measurement and laboratory analysis approaches to accurately characterize source emissions, and near sour...

  17. Biodiesel Emissions Analysis Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using existing data, the EPA's biodiesel emissions analysis program sought to quantify the air pollution emission effects of biodiesel for diesel engines that have not been specifically modified to operate on biodiesel.

  18. Dioxin emissions and sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The papers presented at the seminar discussed dioxin emissions and sources, dioxin pollution of soils, waste water and sewage sludge, stocktaking of emission sources, and exposure and risk analyses for dioxin and other pollutants. (EF) [de

  19. National Emission Information System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sajtakova, E.; Spisakova, K.

    2005-01-01

    In this presentation the Slovak National Emission Information System (NEIS) is presented. The NEIS represents hierarchical oriented modular system of acquisition, verification, saving and reporting of data about annual emissions and payments for pollution of atmosphere

  20. The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B. [Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,; Brown, Nicholas R. [Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802; Slaybaugh, Rachel [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720; Wilks, Theresa [Plasma Science and Fusion Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139; Stewart, Emma [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550; McCoy, Sean T. [Global Security, E Program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550

    2017-10-17

    We review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply it with minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal, and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO2 capture and sequestration. We discuss two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) as exciting but uncertain additional options for low-net GHG emissions (i.e., low-carbon) electricity generation. In addition, we discuss grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes). For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed, along with technical challenges, costs, and other issues as appropriate. Although no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.

  1. FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

    2014-12-01

    Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

  2. Blue Emission in Proteins

    OpenAIRE

    Sarkar, Sohini; Sengupta, Abhigyan; Hazra, Partha; Mandal, Pankaj

    2014-01-01

    Recent literatures reported blue-green emission from amyloid fibril as exclusive signature of fibril formation. This unusual visible luminescence is regularly used to monitor fibril growth. Blue-green emission has also been observed in crystalline protein and in solution. However, the origin of this emission is not known exactly. Our spectroscopic study of serum proteins reveals that the blue-green emission is a property of protein monomer. Evidences suggest that semiconductor-like band struc...

  3. Managing the diffusion of low emission vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vooren, A. van der; Alkemade, F.

    2012-01-01

    There is significant uncertainty among technology providers, governments, and consumers about which technology will be the vehicle technology of the future. Governments try to stimulate the diffusion of low emission vehicles with diverse policy measures such as purchase price subsidies. However, the

  4. Fundamentals of positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostertag, H.

    1989-01-01

    Positron emission tomography is a modern radionuclide method of measuring physiological quantities or metabolic parameters in vivo. The methods is based on: (1) Radioactive labelling with positron emitters; (2) the coincidence technique for the measurement of the annihilation radiation following positron decay; (3) analysis of the data measured using biological models. The basic aspects and problems of the method are discussed. The main fields of future research are the synthesis of new labelled compounds and the development of mathematical models of the biological processes to be investigated. (orig.) [de

  5. Emission computed tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, R.J.

    1986-01-01

    Emission Computed Tomography is a technique used for producing single or multiple cross-sectional images of the distribution of radionuclide labelled agents in vivo. The techniques of Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) and Positron Emission Tomography (PET) are described with particular regard to the function of the detectors used to produce images and the computer techniques used to build up images. (UK)

  6. Cost-effective control of SO2 emissions in Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cofala, J.; Amann, M.; Gyarfas, F.; Schoepp, F.; Boudri, J.C.; Hordijk, L.; Kroeze, C.; Li Junfeng,; Dai Lin, D.; Panwar, T.S.; Gupta, S.

    2004-01-01

    Despite recent efforts to limit the growth of SO2 emissions in Asia, the negative environmental effects of sulphur emissions are likely to further increase in the future. This paper presents an extension of the RAINS-Asia integrated assessment model for acidification in Asia with an optimisation

  7. Historical emissions critical for mapping decarbonization pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majkut, J.; Kopp, R. E.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2016-12-01

    Policymakers have set a goal of limiting temperature increase from human influence on the climate. This motivates the identification of decarbonization pathways to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2. In this context, the future behavior of CO2 sources and sinks define the CO2 emissions necessary to meet warming thresholds with specified probabilities. We adopt a simple model of the atmosphere-land-ocean carbon balance to reflect uncertainty in how natural CO2 sinks will respond to increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperature. Bayesian inversion is used to estimate the probability distributions of selected parameters of the carbon model. Prior probability distributions are chosen to reflect the behavior of CMIP5 models. We then update these prior distributions by running historical simulations of the global carbon cycle and inverting with observationally-based inventories and fluxes of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean and atmosphere. The result is a best-estimate of historical CO2 sources and sinks and a model of how CO2 sources and sinks will vary in the future under various emissions scenarios, with uncertainty. By linking the carbon model to a simple climate model, we calculate emissions pathways and carbon budgets consistent with meeting specific temperature thresholds and identify key factors that contribute to remaining uncertainty. In particular, we show how the assumed history of CO2 emissions from land use change (LUC) critically impacts estimates of the strength of the land CO2 sink via CO2 fertilization. Different estimates of historical LUC emissions taken from the literature lead to significantly different parameterizations of the carbon system. High historical CO2 emissions from LUC lead to a more robust CO2 fertilization effect, significantly lower future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and an increased amount of CO2 that can be emitted to satisfy temperature stabilization targets. Thus, in our model, historical LUC emissions have a

  8. Emission credits : what are they worth?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilman, E.A.

    2003-01-01

    The current cost of making a carbon transaction was discussed with particular reference to a time-line when emissions trading will become more cost-effective and streamlined for quicker results. This paper described how companies are dealing with the risk of emissions trading in terms of pricing and the expected financial impacts of owning a new commodity. The incorporation of emissions credits and trading activities into a company's balance sheet was also described in terms of how banks will consider a company's credit when calculating their loan potential. It was noted that some credits will be valued higher than others based on their historical background. The financial impact that credits have on company assets was addressed in terms of measuring reputation management. The importance of developing a financial plan for effective management was emphasized in terms of evaluating emissions reduction projects and future options. 17 refs., 2 figs

  9. FutureGen Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

  10. International emissions trading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Jan Tjeerd

    This thesis discusses the design and political acceptability of international emissions trading. It is shown that there are several designs options for emissions trading at the national level that have a different impact on output and thereby related factors such as employment and consumer prices....... The differences in impact of the design make that governments may prefer different designs of emissions trading in different situations. The thesis furthermore establishes that international emissions trading may lead to higher overall emissions, which may make it a less attractive instrument....

  11. Shipping emissions in ports

    OpenAIRE

    Merk, Olaf

    2014-01-01

    Shipping emissions in ports are substantial, accounting for 18 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, 0.4 million tonnes of NOx, 0.2 million of SOx and 0.03 million tonnes of PM10 in 2011. Around 85% of emissions come from containerships and tankers. Containerships have short port stays, but high emissions during these stays. Most of CO2 emissions in ports from shipping are in Asia and Europe (58%), but this share is low compared to their share of port calls (70%). European ports have much less emi...

  12. Historic Patterns of CO{sub 2} Emissions from Fossil Fuels: Implications for Stabilization of Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres, R. J.; Marland, G.

    1994-06-01

    This paper examines the historical record of greenhouse gas emissions since 1950, reviews the prospects for emissions into the future, and projects what would be the short-term outcome if the stated targets of the FCCC were in fact achieved. The examination focuses on the most important of the greenhouse gases, CO{sub 2}. The extensive record of historic CO{sub 2} emissions is explored to ascertain if it is an adequate basis for useful extrapolation into the near future. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption have been documented. Emissions grew at 4.3% per year from 1950 until the time of the 1973 oil crisis. Another disruption in growth followed the oil price increases of 1979. Global total emissions have been increasing steadily since the 1982-1983 minimum and have grown by more than 20% since then. At present, emission Of CO{sub 2} from fossil fuel burning is dominated by a few countries: the U.S., the former Soviet Union, China, the developed countries of Europe and Japan. Only 20 countries emit 84% of emissions from all countries. However, rates of growth in many of the developed countries are now very low. In contrast, energy use has grown rapidly over the last 20 years in some of the large, developing economies. Emissions from fossil fuel consumption are now nearly 4 times those from land use change and are the primary cause of measured increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2}. The increasing concentration of atmospheric CO{sub 2} has led to rising concern about the possibility of impending changes in the global climate system. In an effort to limit or mitigate potential negative effects of global climate change, 154 countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June, 1992. The FCCC asks all countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions setting non-binding targets.

  13. Accounting For Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Flooded ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the inundation of rivers and terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can lead to enhanced rates of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. The research approaches include 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions. To inform th

  14. Modeling of greenhouse gas emission from livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjo eJose

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of climate change on humans and other living ecosystems is an area of on-going research. The ruminant livestock sector is considered to be one of the most significant contributors to the existing greenhouse gas (GHG pool. However the there are opportunities to combat climate change by reducing the emission of GHGs from ruminants. Methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O are emitted by ruminants via anaerobic digestion of organic matter in the rumen and manure, and by denitrification and nitrification processes which occur in manure. The quantification of these emissions by experimental methods is difficult and takes considerable time for analysis of the implications of the outputs from empirical studies, and for adaptation and mitigation strategies to be developed. To overcome these problems computer simulation models offer substantial scope for predicting GHG emissions. These models often include all farm activities while accurately predicting the GHG emissions including both direct as well as indirect sources. The models are fast and efficient in predicting emissions and provide valuable information on implementing the appropriate GHG mitigation strategies on farms. Further, these models help in testing the efficacy of various mitigation strategies that are employed to reduce GHG emissions. These models can be used to determine future adaptation and mitigation strategies, to reduce GHG emissions thereby combating livestock induced climate change.

  15. Accouting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, J. J.; Deemer, B. R.; Harrison, J. A.; Nietch, C. T.; Waldo, S.

    2016-12-01

    Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used as a `basis for future methodological development' due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. In the U.S., research approaches include: 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions linked to the National Lakes Assessment.

  16. Decomposition of CO2 Emission Factors in Baoding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Wang, xuyang; Zhang, Hongzhi

    2018-01-01

    Baoding, as one of the first “five provinces and eight cities” low carbon pilot cities, undertakes an important task and mission. The urgent task is to explore a peak route and emission reduction path suitable for Baoding’s own development, so as to provide reference for the construction of low-carbon pilot cities. At present, the carbon emissions of Baoding city and its subordinate districts and counties are not clear, and the carbon emissions, change trends and emission characteristics of various industries have not been systematically studied. This lead researcherscan not carry out further attribution analysis, the prediction of future emissions trends and put forward specific measures to reduce emissions are impossible.If the government can not accurately and comprehensively understand the problems faced in the construction and development of low-carbon cities, it is difficult to fundamentally put forward effective emission reduction policies and measures.

  17. Market analysis and risk management of EU emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ollikainen, M.; Ollikka, K.; Aatola, P.; Ahonen, H.M.; Pohjola, T.; Kumpulainen, A.; Lappalainen, E.

    2006-01-01

    The first EU emissions trading period commenced on 1 January 2005. It implies new challenges to companies included in the scheme. A central challenge is the uncertainty related to the markets. In order to manage risks and profitability companies need to be able to estimate future price developments of emission allowances. University of Helsinki is conducting a research project in cooperation with Helsinki University of Technology that will provide necessary information for analyzing emission allowance markets and create risk management competence. The objectives of the research project are 1) to develop a price estimation model for EU emission allowances and 2) to develop risk management competence related to EU emission allowances. With the price estimation model the short-term price developments of EU emission allowances can be estimated. By utilizing the model companies can reduce uncertainties related to the markets. The project will also deliver a general risk management model for emission allowances that aims at improving competitiveness of companies. (orig.)

  18. Air Emissions Factors and Quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emissions factors are used in developing air emissions inventories for air quality management decisions and in developing emissions control strategies. This area provides technical information on and support for the use of emissions factors.

  19. Future Air Quality in Danish Cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, S. S.; Berkowicz, R.; Winther, M.

    The impact of new EU vehicle emission and fuel quality directives on the future air quality in Danish cities has been modelled for comparison with new limit values in the new EU directive on assessment and management of urban air quality. Nested modelling was applied using a set of air quality...... and emission models to predict concentration levels in the regional background, urban background and at street level. Air pollution levels were predicted to decrease for NO2, CO and benzene (ozone increased slightly) and the results show that the levels will not exceed the new EU limit values in 2010 despite...

  20. Air Contamination by Mercury, Emissions and Transformations-a Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gworek, Barbara; Dmuchowski, Wojciech; Baczewska, Aneta H; Brągoszewska, Paulina; Bemowska-Kałabun, Olga; Wrzosek-Jakubowska, Justyna

    2017-01-01

    The present and future air contamination by mercury is and will continue to be a serious risk for human health. This publication presents a review of the literature dealing with the issues related to air contamination by mercury and its transformations as well as its natural and anthropogenic emissions. The assessment of mercury emissions into the air poses serious methodological problems. It is particularly difficult to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic emissions and re-emissions from lands and oceans, including past emissions. At present, the largest emission sources include fuel combustion, mainly that of coal, and "artisanal and small-scale gold mining" (ASGM). The distinctly highest emissions can be found in South and South-East Asia, accounting for 45% of the global emissions. The emissions of natural origin and re-emissions are estimated at 45-66% of the global emissions, with the largest part of emissions originating in the oceans. Forecasts on the future emission levels are not unambiguous; however, most forecasts do not provide for reductions in emissions. Ninety-five percent of mercury occurring in the air is Hg 0 -GEM, and its residence time in the air is estimated at 6 to 18 months. The residence times of its Hg II -GOM and that in Hg p -TPM are estimated at hours and days. The highest mercury concentrations in the air can be found in the areas of mercury mines and those of ASGM. Since 1980 when it reached its maximum, the global background mercury concentration in the air has remained at a relatively constant level.

  1. The international research progress of Ammonia(NH3) emissions and emissions reduction technology in farmland ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, W. Z.; Jiao, Y.

    2017-03-01

    NH3 is the important factor leading to the grey haze, and one of the main causes of environmental problems of serious ecological imbalance, such as acid rain and air quality deterioration. The fertilizer excessive application of the current farmland results NH3 emissions intensity greatly. In order to clear the farmland NH3 emissions research status and achievements, the literature of farmland NH3 emission related were retrievaled by the SCI journals and Chinese science citation database. Some factors of NH3 emission were analyzed such as soil factors, climate factors and farmland management measures. The research progress was inductived on farmland NH3 emission reduction technology. The results will help to clarify farmland NH3 emissions research progress. The theoretical guidance was provided on the future of farmland NH3 emissions research.

  2. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  3. The Future Multiple

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2015-01-01

    /value – The original contribution is in demonstrating how plural futures and the singular future co-exist in practice. Thus, an eclipse of the future by futures can only ever be partial. For “futures” to be conceptually potent, “the future” must be at least provisionally believable and occasionally useful. Otherwise......, if “the future” were so preposterous an idea, then “futures” would cease to be a critical alternative to it. Futures needs the future; they are relationally bound together in a multiplicity. This paper considers what such a logical reality implies for a field that distances itself from the future and self......). Multiplicity, as a post-ANT sensibility, helps one make sense of the empirical materials. This paper examines the possibility that rather than being alternatives to one another, plural futures and the singular future might co-exist in practice, and, thus, constitute a multiplicity. Design...

  4. Emissions from the Bena Landfill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schafer, C.; Blake, D. R.; Hughes, S.

    2016-12-01

    In 2013, Americans generated 254 million tons of municipal solid waste (MSW). The gas generated from the decomposition of MSW is composed of approximately 50% methane, 50% carbon dioxide, and a small proportion of non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs). NMOCs constitute less than 1% of landfill emissions, but they can have a disproportionate environmental impact as they are highly reactive ozone precursors. During the 2016 Student Airborne Research Program (SARP), whole air samples were collected at the Bena landfill outside of Bakersfield, CA and throughout Bakersfield and analyzed using gas chromatography in order to quantify NMOC emissions. This area was determined to have elevated concentrations of benzene, trichloroethylene, and tetrachloroethylene, all of which are categorized by the EPA as hazardous to human health. Benzene was found to have a concentration of 145 ± 4 pptv, four times higher than the background levels in Bakersfield (36 ± 1 pptv). Trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene had concentrations of 18 ± 1 pptv and 31 ± 1 pptv which were 18 and 10 times greater than background concentrations, respectively. In addition, hydroxyl radical reactivity (ROH) was calculated to determine the potential for tropospheric ozone formation. The total ROH of the landfill was 7.5 ± 0.2 s-1 compared to total background ROH of 1.0 ± 0.1 s-1 . NMOCs only made up 0.6% of total emissions, but accounted for 67% of total ROH.These results can help to shape future landfill emission policies by highlighting the importance of NMOCs in addition to methane. More research is needed to investigate the ozone forming potential of these compounds at landfills across the country.

  5. BP's emissions trading system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, David G.; House, Joshua C.

    2006-01-01

    Between 1998 and 2001, BP reduced its emissions of greenhouse gases by more than 10%. BP's success in cutting emissions is often equated with its use of an apparently market-based emissions trading program. However no independent study has ever examined the rules and operation of BP's system and the incentives acting on managers to reduce emissions. We use interviews with key managers and with traders in several critical business units to explore the bound of BP's success with emissions trading. No money actually changed hands when permits were traded, and the main effect of the program was to create awareness of money-saving emission controls rather than strong price incentives. We show that the trading system did not operate like a 'textbook' cap and trade scheme. Rather, the BP system operated much like a 'safety valve' trading system, where managers let the market function until the cost of doing so surpassed what the company was willing to tolerate

  6. Methane emissions from MBT landfills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heyer, K.-U., E-mail: heyer@ifas-hamburg.de; Hupe, K.; Stegmann, R.

    2013-09-15

    ) model of the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, 2006, was used to estimate the methane emissions from MBT landfills. Due to the calculation made by the authors emissions in the range of 60,000–135,000 t CO{sub 2-eq.}/a for all German MBT landfills can be expected. This wide range shows the uncertainties when the here used procedure and the limited available data are applied. It is therefore necessary to generate more data in the future in order to calculate more precise methane emission rates from MBT landfills. This is important for the overall calculation of the climate gas production in Germany which is required once a year by the German Government.

  7. Emissions of nitrogen oxides from road traffic - regulations, emissions and effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoedin, Aake; Pihl-Karlsson, Gunilla; Johansson, Manne; Forsberg, Bertil; Erlandsson, Lennart

    2004-10-01

    The report is a review that aims to improve the basis for additional measures against the road traffic emissions of, in particular, NO x . An important question in the context is whether health effects of NO 2 should serve as a norm for the actions for emission reductions of NO x , or if the environmental effects of NO x -emissions in the form of acidification, eutrophication and ozone should play this role. WHO notes, in its latest review of health effect research, that one cannot demonstrate that NO 2 alone has any direct effects in concentrations at the current whole-year mean norm (40 μg/m 3 ). Such health effects that has been demonstrated in epidemiologic studies at these concentrations are caused by other traffic related emissions (e. g. particles) for which NO 2 constitutes a good indicator. WHO indicates the need for additional sharpening of the norms for ozone and particles. In this context, it is important to note that emissions of NO x on a regional scale contributes to formation of ozone as well as particles. Therefore there exist reasons to decrease the emissions of NO x in order to reach future recommended values for ozone and particles emissions. In the evaluations that will be done during 2004-2005 of the so called Goeteborg protocol, the EU's Ceiling Directives and the CAFE-programme, it is expected that new emissions objective for NO x will be suggested for 2015-2020, to cope with health and environment objectives in Europe. The report shows that that development that currently happens within the vehicle industry, for engines and exhaust emission control system are pursued to meet future exhaust requirement in the USA gives good conditions for the road traffic sector to contribute to that these objectives will reached

  8. Prompt neutron emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sher, R.

    1959-01-01

    It is shown that Ramanna and Rao's tentative conclusion that prompt fission neutrons are emitted (in the fragment system) preferentially in the direction of fragment motion is not necessitated by their angular distribution measurements, which are well explained by the usual assumptions of isotropic emission with a Maxwell (or Maxwell-like) emission spectrum. The energy distribution (Watt spectrum) and the angular distribution, both including the effects of anisotropic emission, are given. (author) [fr

  9. A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

    2011-04-15

    The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

  10. Agricultural air quality in Europe and the future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erisman, J.W.; Bleeker, A.; Hensen, A.; Vermeulen, A.T.

    2008-08-01

    Agricultural emissions in Europe are important to several atmospheric transport-related environmental issues. These include local and regional air quality problems, such as PM exposure, eutrophication and acidification, toxics and contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a number of environmental impacts. Over Europe, agricultural emissions are variable in space and time and the contribution to the different issues are variable. Most important are ammonia (90%), PM (20%) and methane and nitrous oxide (both 5%). Policies have been developed to combat some of the emissions with success in some countries. However, future, national and European policies are necessary to successfully decrease emissions and its related problems. Current research issues include the quantification of non-point sources, the atmosphere-biosphere exchange of ammonia, the quantification of landscape processes and the primary and secondary emissions of PM

  11. EU Emission Trading: Starting with Carbon Dioxide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vesterdal, Morten; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard

    2003-01-01

    The Commission of the European Union wants to start a limited emission trading scheme by 2005 within the Community to enable "learning-by-doing" prior to the Kyoto Protocol. This to accomplish the desired 8% target level for six different greenhouse gases. However, in the EU it is not clear whether...... all the six relevant greenhouse gases or only CO2 should be traded. What is the simplest and most practicable solution? We argue in favour of the latter option for three main reasons: the possible dominating global warming potential of CO2, expected future developments in CO2 emissions and the fact...

  12. Radio emission from Jupiter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velusamy, T.

    1976-01-01

    The basic features of the different radio emissions from the planet Jupiter are reviewed. These radio emissions characterized into three types as thermal, decimetric and decametric, are discussed. The coherent emission mechanism for the origin of the decametric bursts and the acceleration mechanism for relativistic electrons in the decimetric radiation have not been properly understood. The emissions are much related to the magnetic field of Jupiter. The system III rotation period for Jupiter has been calculated as 092 55 m 29.74 S. (A.K.)

  13. VOC emissions chambers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — In order to support the development of test methods and reference materials for volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions from building materials and furnishings,...

  14. Microgravity Emissions Laboratory (MEL)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Microgravity Emissions Laboratory (MEL) utilizes a low-frequency acceleration measurement system for the characterization of rigid body inertial forces generated...

  15. The Future of Air Conditioning for Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goetzler, William [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Guernsey, Matt [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Young, Jim [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Fujrman, Jay [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Abdelaziz, Amar [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-07-01

    BTO works with researchers and industry to develop and deploy technologies that can substantially reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in residential and commercial buildings. Air conditioning systems in buildings contribute to GHG emissions both directly through refrigerant emissions, as well as indirectly through fossil fuel combustion for power generation. BTO promotes pre-competitive research and development on next-generation HVAC technologies that support the phase down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption, as well as cost-effective energy efficiency improvements. DOE provides, with this report, a fact-based vision for the future of A/C use around the world. DOE intends for this vision to reflect a broad and balanced aggregation of perspectives. DOE brings together this content in an effort to support dialogue within the international community and help keep key facts and objectives at the forefront among the many important discussions.

  16. Nitrous oxide (N2O). Emission inventory and options for control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze C; LAE

    1994-01-01

    This study was initiated to overview current knowledge on nitrous oxide (N2O). The report reviews atmospheric behaviour of N2O, global sources and sinks, Dutch emissions in 1990, options to reduce emissions, and past and future emissions. Despite the uncertainties involved, it is likely that without

  17. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) emissions from human waste in 1970-2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strokal, M.; Kroeze, C.

    2014-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important contributor to climate change. Human waste is an important source of N2O emissions in several world regions, and its share in global emissions may increase in the future. In this paper we, therefore, address N2O emission from human waste: collected (from treatment

  18. A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

  19. Carbon trading: Current schemes and future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perdan, Slobodan; Azapagic, Adisa

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks at the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading schemes and examines the prospects of carbon trading. The first part of the paper gives an overview of several mandatory GHG trading schemes around the world. The second part focuses on the future trends in carbon trading. It argues that the emergence of new schemes, a gradual enlargement of the current ones, and willingness to link existing and planned schemes seem to point towards geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading. However, such expansion would need to overcome some considerable technical and non-technical obstacles. Linking of the current and emerging trading schemes requires not only considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems, but also necessitates clear regulatory and policy signals, continuing political support and a more stable economic environment. Currently, the latter factors are missing. The global economic turmoil and its repercussions for the carbon market, a lack of the international deal on climate change defining the Post-Kyoto commitments, and unfavourable policy shifts in some countries, cast serious doubts on the expansion of emissions trading and indicate that carbon trading enters an uncertain period. - Highlights: → The paper provides an extensive overview of mandatory emissions trading schemes around the world. → Geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading are identified as future trends. → The expansion requires considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems. → Clear policy signals, political support and a stable economic environment are needed for the expansion. → A lack of the post-Kyoto commitments and unfavourable policy shifts indicate an uncertain future for carbon trading.

  20. Making the Future Palpable

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Büscher, Monika; Kristensen, Margit; Mogensen, Preben Holst

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe experiences from a Future Laboratory. Future laboratories allow users to experiment with prototypes of future technologies in as realistic as possible conditions. We have devised this method because, to realize the potential of advanced ubiquitous computing technologies...... it is essential to anticipate and design for future practices, but for prospective users it is often difficult to imagine and articulate future practices and provide design specifications. They readily invent new ways of working in engagement with new technologies, through and, by facilitating as realistic...... as possible use of prototype future technologies in Future Laboratories designers and users can define and study both opportunities and constraints for design. We present 11 scenes from a Major Incidents Future Laboratory held in September 2005. In relation to each scene we point out key results. Many raise...

  1. Future accelerators: physics issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjorken, J.D.

    1977-11-01

    High energy physics of the future using future accelerators is discussed. The proposed machines and instruments, physics issues and opportunities including brief sketches of outstanding recent results, and the way the proposed machines address these issues are considered. 42 references

  2. The future of nuclear energy in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polie, P.

    1996-01-01

    An overview of current situation and future trends in nuclear energy production in Europe is made. Main factors characterizing differences in atomic policy of each particular European country are discussed. They are: readiness of the governments to implement a long-term energy policy; technical, economical and energy aspects; public opinion. Future development of new power plants is connected with overproduction of electricity, safety operation of present NPP, reduction of CO 2 emissions and public opinion. The energy policy of the European Union is also discussed and the necessity of transparency in industrial strategy of the governments is outlined

  3. Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary

    2018-04-01

    Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions1. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations2. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits3,4. However, 2 °C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 °C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a `standard' 2 °C scenario to 1.5 °C or could achieve 2 °C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with 40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

  4. Novel Fiber-Optic Ring Acoustic Emission Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Peng; Han, Xiaole; Xia, Dong; Liu, Taolin; Lang, Hao

    2018-01-13

    Acoustic emission technology has been applied to many fields for many years. However, the conventional piezoelectric acoustic emission sensors cannot be used in extreme environments, such as those with heavy electromagnetic interference, high pressure, or strong corrosion. In this paper, a novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor is proposed. The sensor exhibits high sensitivity, anti-electromagnetic interference, and corrosion resistance. First, the principle of a novel fiber-optic ring sensor is introduced. Different from piezoelectric and other fiber acoustic emission sensors, this novel sensor includes both a sensing skeleton and a sensing fiber. Second, a heterodyne interferometric demodulating method is presented. In addition, a fiber-optic ring sensor acoustic emission system is built based on this method. Finally, fiber-optic ring acoustic emission experiments are performed. The novel fiber-optic ring sensor is glued onto the surface of an aluminum plate. The 150 kHz standard continuous sinusoidal signals and broken lead signals are successfully detected by the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In addition, comparison to the piezoelectric acoustic emission sensor is performed, which shows the availability and reliability of the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In the future, this novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor will provide a new route to acoustic emission detection in harsh environments.

  5. Novel Fiber-Optic Ring Acoustic Emission Sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Wei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Acoustic emission technology has been applied to many fields for many years. However, the conventional piezoelectric acoustic emission sensors cannot be used in extreme environments, such as those with heavy electromagnetic interference, high pressure, or strong corrosion. In this paper, a novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor is proposed. The sensor exhibits high sensitivity, anti-electromagnetic interference, and corrosion resistance. First, the principle of a novel fiber-optic ring sensor is introduced. Different from piezoelectric and other fiber acoustic emission sensors, this novel sensor includes both a sensing skeleton and a sensing fiber. Second, a heterodyne interferometric demodulating method is presented. In addition, a fiber-optic ring sensor acoustic emission system is built based on this method. Finally, fiber-optic ring acoustic emission experiments are performed. The novel fiber-optic ring sensor is glued onto the surface of an aluminum plate. The 150 kHz standard continuous sinusoidal signals and broken lead signals are successfully detected by the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In addition, comparison to the piezoelectric acoustic emission sensor is performed, which shows the availability and reliability of the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In the future, this novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor will provide a new route to acoustic emission detection in harsh environments.

  6. Measurement of fugitive emissions from gas processing plants in Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambers, A. [Alberta Research Council, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    This paper presents a new gas visualization camera created to detect leaks. An outline of the device's projected entry into the oil and gas industry was provided, and included: a demonstration of Differential Absorption Light Detection and Ranging (DIAL) and leak cameras to measure and reduce fugitive emissions; a comparison of DIAL measured emissions with estimated emissions; and a review of methods to measure particulate emissions. In addition, a background of gas leak visualisation technology was presented along with an an overview of DIAL and its results from sour gas plants. The results of a survey conducted in 2003 were presented, including leaks identified and repaired as well as a follow up leak survey. An analysis of pre and post-repair hydrocarbon emissions from the Deepcut area revealed a 60 per cent reduction with savings of $140,000 as well as additional savings from reduced carbon emissions. A similar survey conducted in another plant measured emissions from condensate tanks before and after cooler installation as well as from surrounding well sites, quantifying an 80 per cent reduction in methane emissions. Tasks identified for future research concerned particulate emissions and the development of Lidar methods which can currently identify particulates, but are not yet able to quantify them. Other tasks included a complete DIAL data workup and reporting; the quantification of both methane and carbon emissions reduction at a sour gas plant; a comparison of measured emissions with methods that estimate fugitives; and a complete review of particulate measurements. tabs, figs.

  7. Particulate emissions from diesel engines: correlation between engine technology and emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiebig, Michael; Wiartalla, Andreas; Holderbaum, Bastian; Kiesow, Sebastian

    2014-03-07

    In the last 30 years, diesel engines have made rapid progress to increased efficiency, environmental protection and comfort for both light- and heavy-duty applications. The technical developments include all issues from fuel to combustion process to exhaust gas aftertreatment. This paper provides a comprehensive summary of the available literature regarding technical developments and their impact on the reduction of pollutant emission. This includes emission legislation, fuel quality, diesel engine- and exhaust gas aftertreatment technologies, as well as particulate composition, with a focus on the mass-related particulate emission of on-road vehicle applications. Diesel engine technologies representative of real-world on-road applications will be highlighted.Internal engine modifications now make it possible to minimize particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions with nearly no reduction in power. Among these modifications are cooled exhaust gas recirculation, optimized injections systems, adapted charging systems and optimized combustion processes with high turbulence. With introduction and optimization of exhaust gas aftertreatment systems, such as the diesel oxidation catalyst and the diesel particulate trap, as well as NOx-reduction systems, pollutant emissions have been significantly decreased. Today, sulfur poisoning of diesel oxidation catalysts is no longer considered a problem due to the low-sulfur fuel used in Europe. In the future, there will be an increased use of bio-fuels, which generally have a positive impact on the particulate emissions and do not increase the particle number emissions.Since the introduction of the EU emissions legislation, all emission limits have been reduced by over 90%. Further steps can be expected in the future. Retrospectively, the particulate emissions of modern diesel engines with respect to quality and quantity cannot be compared with those of older engines. Internal engine modifications lead to a clear reduction of the

  8. Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used as a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. In the U.S., research approaches include: 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane em

  9. Money market futures

    OpenAIRE

    Anatoli Kuprianov

    1992-01-01

    Virtually all financial innovation in the U.S. money market during the past 20 years has centered on interest rate derivatives, including futures and swaps. Furthermore, money market futures--especially futures contracts on Eurodollar time deposits--have been at the vanguard of the recent explosion of trading activity in interest rate derivatives. While futures markets traditionally have been viewed as markets for the transfer of price risk, recent research shows that they may serve other imp...

  10. Future Heat Waves In Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2017-12-01

    I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

  11. The future of petroleum fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laredo, J.

    1997-01-01

    The world relies greatly on hydrocarbons for its energy. The three main problems associated with this dependence on fossil fuels are that (1) most consuming countries depend on oil supplied from high-risk producing countries, (2) oil reserves will eventually deplete, and (3) the burning of fossil fuels creates greenhouse gases that are harmful to the environment and human health. In response to some of these concerns, governments have set emissions standards and have encouraged the development of alternative energy sources. This trend will have a significant impact on the transportation sector, oil companies and car manufacturers. This monograph attempts to evaluate qualitatively the potential of various alternative technologies, especially on the transportation sector. Alternative technology research in the United States and Europe by the automobile and electrical industries was examined. Preparation by the oil companies for the changes that they will have to confront in the not-too-distant future were also reviewed. 82 refs., 7 tabs., 20 figs

  12. Outsourcing CO2 Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K. G.

    2009-12-01

    CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the primary cause of global warming. Much attention has been focused on the CO2 directly emitted by each country, but relatively little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions associated with consumption of goods and services in each country. This consumption-based emissions inventory differs from the production-based inventory because of imports and exports of goods and services that, either directly or indirectly, involved CO2 emissions. Using the latest available data and reasonable assumptions regarding trans-shipment of embodied carbon through third-party countries, we developed a global consumption-based CO2 emissions inventory and have calculated associated consumption-based energy and carbon intensities. We find that, in 2004, 24% of CO2 emissions are effectively outsourced to other countries, with much of the developed world outsourcing CO2 emissions to emerging markets, principally China. Some wealthy countries, including Switzerland and Sweden, outsource over half of their consumption-based emissions, with many northern Europeans outsourcing more than three tons of emissions per person per year. The United States is both a big importer and exporter of emissions embodied in trade, outsourcing >2.6 tons of CO2 per person and at the same time as >2.0 tons of CO2 per person are outsourced to the United States. These large flows indicate that CO2 emissions embodied in trade must be taken into consideration when considering responsibility for increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

  13. The future of solar physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, E.N.

    1986-01-01

    The future of solar physics is founded on the existing fundamental unsolved problems in stellar physics. Thus, for instance, the physics of stellar interiors has been called into serious question by the very low-measured neutrino flux. The /sup 71/Ga neutrino detection experiment is the next step in unravelling this mystery. If that experiment should find the expected neutrino flux from the basic p-p reaction in the Sun, then astrophysics is in a difficult situation, because the most likely explanation for the low neutrino flux found in the /sup 37/Cl experiment would be an error in the calculation of the opacity or an error in the understanding of the elemental abundances in stellar interiors, with serious implications for present ideas on stellar structures and the age of the galaxy. The new method of helioseismology, for probing the interior of the Sun, have already found the primordial rapid rotation of the central core. The forthcoming world-wide helioseismology observing network will permit fuller exploitation of the method, promising to provide the first direct sounding of the interior of a star, hitherto known to us only through theoretical inference and the discrepant neutrino emission. An essential step in developing the physics of stellar activity will be the Solar Optical Telescope (presently planned by NASA to be launched early in the next decade) to permit a microscopic examination of the surface of the Sun to study the source of the action. The activity and X-ray emission of other stars depend on much the same effects, so that the study is essential to determining the significance of the X-ray emission from other stars

  14. Greening the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Norma Velia

    2011-01-01

    Because educators vicariously touch the future through their students, the author believes that they sometimes have the uncanny ability to see the future. One common future forecast is the phenomenal growth of green jobs in the emerging green economy, leading to the creation of the "Reach of the Sun" Solar Energy Academy at La Mirada…

  15. 3Ecologies: Visualizing sustainability factors and futures

    OpenAIRE

    Avila, Martin; Carpenter, John; Mazé, Ramia

    2010-01-01

    ‘3Ecologies’ makes visible factors affecting the sustainability of consumer products. Within engineering and economics, there are a variety of models for analyzing and ‘predicting’ the environmental factors such as energy, emissions and waste involved during production, consumption and disposal. We develop an expanded model, which emphasizes human impact and choices as well as potential consequences and futures. Psychological, sociological and environmental factors are mapped over time – thro...

  16. Impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on the simulated response of ozone and fine particulate matter to anthropogenic emission reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogrefe, Christian; Isukapalli, Sastry S; Tang, Xiaogang; Georgopoulos, Panos G; He, Shan; Zalewsky, Eric E; Hao, Winston; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Key, Tonalee; Sistla, Gopal

    2011-01-01

    The role of emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitric oxide from biogenic sources is becoming increasingly important in regulatory air quality modeling as levels of anthropogenic emissions continue to decrease and stricter health-based air quality standards are being adopted. However, considerable uncertainties still exist in the current estimation methodologies for biogenic emissions. The impact of these uncertainties on ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels for the eastern United States was studied, focusing on biogenic emissions estimates from two commonly used biogenic emission models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS). Photochemical grid modeling simulations were performed for two scenarios: one reflecting present day conditions and the other reflecting a hypothetical future year with reductions in emissions of anthropogenic oxides of nitrogen (NOx). For ozone, the use of MEGAN emissions resulted in a higher ozone response to hypothetical anthropogenic NOx emission reductions compared with BEIS. Applying the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance on regulatory air quality modeling in conjunction with typical maximum ozone concentrations, the differences in estimated future year ozone design values (DVF) stemming from differences in biogenic emissions estimates were on the order of 4 parts per billion (ppb), corresponding to approximately 5% of the daily maximum 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 75 ppb. For PM2.5, the differences were 0.1-0.25 microg/m3 in the summer total organic mass component of DVFs, corresponding to approximately 1-2% of the value of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 microg/m3. Spatial variations in the ozone and PM2.5 differences also reveal that the impacts of different biogenic emission estimates on ozone and PM2.5 levels are dependent on ambient levels of anthropogenic emissions.

  17. 47 CFR 78.103 - Emissions and emission limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Emissions and emission limitations. 78.103... CABLE TELEVISION RELAY SERVICE Technical Regulations § 78.103 Emissions and emission limitations. (a) A CARS station may be authorized to employ any type of emission, for which there are technical standards...

  18. Air Emission Inventory for the INEEL -- 1999 Emission Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zohner, Steven K

    2000-05-01

    This report presents the 1999 calendar year update of the Air Emission Inventory for the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The INEEL Air Emission Inventory documents sources and emissions of nonradionuclide pollutants from operations at the INEEL. The report describes the emission inventory process and all of the sources at the INEEL, and provides nonradionuclide emissions estimates for stationary sources.

  19. Characteristics of On-road Diesel Vehicles: Black Carbon Emissions in Chinese Cities Based on Portable Emissions Measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xuan; Wu, Ye; Jiang, Jingkun; Zhang, Shaojun; Liu, Huan; Song, Shaojie; Li, Zhenhua; Fan, Xiaoxiao; Fu, Lixin; Hao, Jiming

    2015-11-17

    Black carbon (BC) emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) are rarely continuously measured using portable emission measurement systems (PEMSs). In this study, we utilize a PEMS to obtain real-world BC emission profiles for 25 HDDVs in China. The average fuel-based BC emissions of HDDVs certified according to Euro II, III, IV, and V standards are 2224 ± 251, 612 ± 740, 453 ± 584, and 152 ± 3 mg kg(-1), respectively. Notably, HDDVs adopting mechanical pump engines had significantly higher BC emissions than those equipped with electronic injection engines. Applying the useful features of PEMSs, we can relate instantaneous BC emissions to driving conditions using an operating mode binning methodology, and the average emission rates for Euro II to Euro IV diesel trucks can be constructed. From a macroscopic perspective, we observe that average speed is a significant factor affecting BC emissions and is well correlated with distance-based emissions (R(2) = 0.71). Therefore, the average fuel-based and distance-based BC emissions on congested roads are 40 and 125% higher than those on freeways. These results should be taken into consideration in future emission inventory studies.

  20. Uncertainties in emission inventories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aardenne, van J.A.

    2002-01-01

    Emission inventories provide information about the amount of a pollutant that is emitted to the atmosphere as a result of a specific anthropogenic or natural process at a given time or place. Emission inventories can be used for either policy or scientific purposes. For

  1. Positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reivich, M.; Alavi, A.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains 24 selections. Some of the titles are: Positron Emission Tomography Instrumentation, Generator Systems for Positron Emitters, Reconstruction Algorithms, Cerebral Glucose Consumption: Methodology and Validation, Cerebral Blood Flow Tomography Using Xenon-133 Inhalation: Methods and Clinical Applications, PET Studies of Stroke, Cardiac Positron Emission Tomography, and Use of PET in Oncology

  2. National pollutants emission limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chmielewski, A.G.; Pawelec, A.

    2011-01-01

    Fossil fuels are the main energy sources. Unfortunately the vast quantities of pollutants are emitted to the atmosphere during their combustion. These emissions lead to the environment degradation and affect human health. Therefore most of the countries have introduced the standards concerning emission control. These regulations for some countries are presented in the paper. (author)

  3. National pollutants emission limits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chmielewski, A. G.; Pawelec, A. [Institute of Nuclear Chemistry and Technology, Warsaw (Poland)

    2011-07-01

    Fossil fuels are the main energy sources. Unfortunately the vast quantities of pollutants are emitted to the atmosphere during their combustion. These emissions lead to the environment degradation and affect human health. Therefore most of the countries have introduced the standards concerning emission control. These regulations for some countries are presented in the paper. (author)

  4. Database of emission lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binette, L.; Ortiz, P.; Joguet, B.; Rola, C.

    1998-11-01

    A widely accessible data bank (available through Netscape) and consiting of all (or most) of the emission lines reported in the litterature is being built. It will comprise objects as diverse as HII regions, PN, AGN, HHO. One of its use will be to define/refine existing diagnostic emission line diagrams.

  5. Observed Barium Emission Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenbaek-Nielsen, H. C.; Wescott, E. M.; Hallinan, T. J.

    1993-01-01

    The barium releases from the CRRES satellite have provided an opportunity for verifying theoretically calculated barium ion and neutral emission rates. Spectra of the five Caribbean releases in the summer of 1991 were taken with a spectrograph on board a U.S. Air Force jet aircraft. Because the line of sight release densities are not known, only relative rates could be obtained. The observed relative rates agree well with the theoretically calculated rates and, together with other observations, confirm the earlier detailed theoretical emission rates. The calculated emission rates can thus with good accuracy be used with photometric observations. It has been postulated that charge exchange between neutral barium and oxygen ions represents a significant source for ionization. If so. it should be associated with emissions at 4957.15 A and 5013.00 A, but these emissions were not detected.

  6. Modeling of pollutant emissions from road transport; Modelisation des emissions de polluants par le transport routier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    COPERT III (computer programme to calculate emissions from road transport) is the third version of an MS Windows software programme aiming at the calculation of air pollutant emissions from road transport. COPERT estimates emissions of all regulated air pollutants (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM) produced by different vehicle categories as well as CO{sub 2} emissions on the basis of fuel consumption. This research seminar was organized by the French agency of environment and energy mastery (Ademe) around the following topics: the uncertainties and sensitiveness analysis of the COPERT III model, the presentation of case studies that use COPERT III for the estimation of road transport emissions, and the future of the modeling of road transport emissions: from COPERT III to ARTEMIS (assessment and reliability of transport emission models and inventory systems). This document is a compilation of 8 contributions to this seminar and dealing with: the uncertainty and sensitiveness analysis of the COPERT III model; the road mode emissions of the ESCOMPTE program: sensitivity study; the sensitivity analysis of the spatialized traffic at the time-aggregation level: application in the framework of the INTERREG project (Alsace); the road transport aspect of the regional air quality plan of Bourgogne region: exhaustive consideration of the road network; intercomparison of tools and methods for the inventory of emissions of road transport origin; evolution of the French park of vehicles by 2025: new projections; application of COPERT III to the French context: a new version of IMPACT-ADEME; the European ARTEMIS project: new structural considerations for the modeling of road transport emissions. (J.S.)

  7. Future planning - utopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boernke, F.

    1978-01-01

    Our life develops as the anticipation of future. Everything we wish, hope, plan and carry out and think is or should be related to future and will have its effects in future. The certainty may spread that it is a necessary obligation to learn to find out our actual being more clearly to be able to develop a thinking and acting that is directed to future that has also a total of responsability as its essence. We will later atone for the failed outlooks into future or for only moderate or uncompleted starts of planning. For this reason we should consider that future does not come for its own, not without our demands, not without our acting. Only if our reflection and aspiration, thinking and acting is done with moderate and circumspect sense in the right way it will be a good fundamental for the future. (orig.) [de

  8. Emission Data For Climate-Chemistry Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Data on anthropogenic and natural emissions of reactive species are a critical input for studies of atmospheric chemistry and climate. The availability and characteristics of anthropogenic emissions data that can be used for such studies are reviewed and pathways for future work discuss Global and regional datasets for historical and future emissions are available, but their characteristics and applicability for specific studies differ. For the first time, a coordinated set of historical emissions (Lamarque et al 2010) and the future projections (van Vuurren et al. 2011) have been developed for use in the CMIP5 and ACCMIP long-term simulation comparison projects. These data have decadal resolution and were designed for long-term, global simulations. These data, however, lack finer-scale spatial and temporal detail that might be needed for some studies. Robust and timely updates of emissions data is generally lacking, although recent updates will be presented. While historical emission data is often treated as known, emissions are uncertain, even though this uncertainty is rarely quantified. Uncertainty varies by species and location. Inverse modeling is starting to indicate where emission data may be uncertain, which opens the way to improving these data overall. Further interaction between the chemistry modeling and inventory development communities are needed. Future projections are intrinsically uncertain, and while institutions and processes are in place to develop and review long-term century-scale scenarios, a need has remained for a wider range in shorter-term (e.g., several decade) projections. Emissions and scenario development communities have been working to fill this need. Communication across disciplines of the assumptions embedded in emissions projections remains a challenge. Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool needed for studying chemistry-climate interactions. Simpler models, however, are also needed in order to examine interactions

  9. Control mechanisms for Nordic ship emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinsen, K. [DNV, Oslo (Norway); Torvanger, A. [Cicero, Oslo (Norway)

    2013-04-15

    Shipping today operates under a complex set of international and domestic regulations. However, the environmental regulations have lagged behind those of other industries. This situation is now changing quite dramatically. The increased focus on environmental issues, combined with the growing realisation of the actual pollution burden imposed by shipping, has led to an upsurge in both international and national regulations. Some are ready and will enter into force in the near future, while others are still being developed. On behalf of the Nordic Council of Ministers DNV has carried out a study on possible control mechanisms for Nordic ship emission. The aim is to assess the baseline shipping emissions and reduction potential and the possible controlling mechanisms (both incentives and regulations) available for reducing the emissions to air from shipping within the Nordic region. (Author)

  10. Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

    1980-03-01

    This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, including uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking, a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

  11. Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

    1980-03-01

    This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, including uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking, a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

  12. Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

    1980-03-01

    This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, includimg uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

  13. Emission characteristics of petrol and diesel driven vehicles in Rewa town

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, R.M.; Gupta, A.K.; Parihar, Sarita

    1993-01-01

    Air pollution by road traffic is likely to be severe in most of the major cities of India, in near future. An emission survey was conducted in Rewa town to obtain the basic data on emission characteristics of inservice vehicles. About 250 two wheelers, 110 cars and 350 diesel vehicles were tested for the emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. Present paper summarizes the data of vehicular emissions observed in this survey and discusses the emission level of different categories of vehicles, in the light of the proposed national standards and the emission standards enforced in developed countries. (author). 9 refs., 4 tabs

  14. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

    2013-01-01

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

  15. Emission consequences of introducing bio ethanol as a fuel for gasoline cars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Morten Mentz; Møller, Flemming; Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2012-01-01

    This article describes the direct vehicle emission impact of the future use of bio ethanol as a fuel for gasoline cars in Denmark arising from the vehicle specific fuel consumption and emission differences between neat gasoline (E0) and E5/E85 gasoline-ethanol fuel blends derived from emission......% in 2030. As predicted by the vehicle specific emission differences the calculated emission impacts of using bio ethanol are small for NOx, VOC and CO. Instead, for FS, BS1 and BS2 large emission reductions are due to the gradually cleaner new sold gasoline cars and the decline in total mileage until...

  16. Hydrogen, energy of the future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alleau, Th.

    2007-01-01

    A cheap, non-polluting energy with no greenhouse gas emissions and unlimited resources? This is towards this fantastic future that this book brings us, analyzing the complex but promising question of hydrogen. The scientific and technical aspects of production, transport, storage and distribution raised by hydrogen are thoroughly reviewed. Content: I) Energy, which solutions?: 1 - hydrogen, a future; 2 - hydrogen, a foreseeable solution?; II) Hydrogen, an energy vector: 3 - characteristics of hydrogen (physical data, quality and drawbacks); 4 - hydrogen production (from fossil fuels, from water, from biomass, bio-hydrogen generation); 5 - transport, storage and distribution of hydrogen; 6 - hydrogen cost (production, storage, transport and distribution costs); III) Fuel cells and ITER, utopias?: 7 - molecular hydrogen uses (thermal engines and fuel cells); 8 - hydrogen and fusion (hydrogen isotopes, thermonuclear reaction, ITER project, fusion and wastes); IV) Hydrogen acceptability: 9 - risk acceptability; 10 - standards and regulations; 11 - national, European and international policies about hydrogen; 12 - big demonstration projects in France and in the rest of the world; conclusion. (J.S.)

  17. Sustaining the future: the role of nuclear power in meeting future world energy needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Sun, Y.

    2003-01-01

    A description is given of recently informed analyses showing the potential that nuclear power has in meeting global energy demands. For both the electricity and transportation sectors, we can quantify the beneficial effects on the environment, and we show how nuclear power deserves credit for its role in assisting future world energy, environmental and economic sustainability. The continuing expansion of the world's and Asia's energy needs, coupled with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions, will require new approaches for large scale energy production and use. This is particularly important for China and Asia with respect to meeting both the energy demand and sustainability challenges. We show and explore the role of nuclear power for large-scale energy applications, including electricity production and hydrogen for transportation. Advanced nuclear technologies, such as those like CANDU's next generation ACR, can meet future global energy market needs, avoid emissions, and mitigate the potential for global climate change. We use the latest IPCC Scenarios out to the year 2100 as a base case, but correct them to examine the sensitivity to large scale nuclear and hydrogen fuel penetration. We show a significant impact of nuclear energy on energy market penetration, and in reducing GHGs and other emissions in the coming century, particularly in the industrial developing world and in Asia. This is achieved without needing emissions credits, as are used or needed as economic support for other sources, or for subsidies via emissions trading schemes. Nuclear power offers the relatively emissions-free means, both to provide electricity for traditional applications and, by electrolytic production of hydrogen, to extend its use deep into the transportation sector. For the published IPCC Marker Scenarios for Asia we show the reduction in GHG emissions when electrolysis using electricity from nuclear power assists the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel

  18. Carbon emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Zhu

    2016-01-01

    This study analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern and processes of China's energy-related carbon emissions. Based on extensive quantitative analysis, it outlines the character and trajectory of China's energy-related carbon emissions during the period 1995-2010, examining the distribution pattern of China's carbon emissions from regional and sectoral perspectives and revealing the driving factors of China's soaring emission increase. Further, the book investigates the supply chain carbon emissions (the carbon footprints) of China's industrial sectors. Anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious challenges currently facing humankind. China is the world's largest developing country, top primary energy consumer and carbon emitter. Achieving both economic growth and environmental conservation is the country's twofold challenge. Understanding the status, features and driving forces of China's energy-related carbon emissions is a critical aspect of attaining global sustainability. This work, for the first time, presents both key findings on and a systematic evaluation of China's carbon emissions from energy consumption. The results have important implications for global carbon budgets and burden-sharing with regard to climate change mitigation. The book will be of great interest to readers around the world, as it addresses a topic of truly global significance.

  19. Carbon emissions in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Zhu [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). Sustainability Science Program

    2016-07-01

    This study analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern and processes of China's energy-related carbon emissions. Based on extensive quantitative analysis, it outlines the character and trajectory of China's energy-related carbon emissions during the period 1995-2010, examining the distribution pattern of China's carbon emissions from regional and sectoral perspectives and revealing the driving factors of China's soaring emission increase. Further, the book investigates the supply chain carbon emissions (the carbon footprints) of China's industrial sectors. Anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious challenges currently facing humankind. China is the world's largest developing country, top primary energy consumer and carbon emitter. Achieving both economic growth and environmental conservation is the country's twofold challenge. Understanding the status, features and driving forces of China's energy-related carbon emissions is a critical aspect of attaining global sustainability. This work, for the first time, presents both key findings on and a systematic evaluation of China's carbon emissions from energy consumption. The results have important implications for global carbon budgets and burden-sharing with regard to climate change mitigation. The book will be of great interest to readers around the world, as it addresses a topic of truly global significance.

  20. Emissions of road transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maekelae, K.; Tuominen, A.

    2001-01-01

    Information on the emissions and energy consumption of different vehicles per transported amount of goods has up to last years been minimal. The unit emissions mean the amount of harmful compounds in the flue gases of a vehicle per service, time or energy unit. National three-year MOBILE 2-research program, started in 1999, determines the unit emissions of all the traffic sectors in Finland. VTT Building and Transport mainly carry out the research, but the Institute of Transportation Engineering of the Tampere University of Technology (TTKK) is responsible for a part of the research. The objective of the project is to create common rules for the determination of unit emissions values, and to determine the best possible values for Finnish conditions. Unit emission data is mainly needed for evaluation of the environmental impacts of production plants and other activities containing transportation of commodities. At the web sites of VTT Building and Transport there are about 60 pages of text and tables (about 4000 values) on unit emissions. The URL of the pages is http://www.vtt.fi/rte/projects/lipastoe/index.htm. These web pages present data on all the transportation sectors (road, railroad, water and air transportation), most of the materials concerning road transportation. Following compounds and values are included: CO, HC, NO x , particulates, SO 2 , CO 2 and energy consumption. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions values have also been presented

  1. Energy Sources Management and Future Automotive Technologies: Environmental Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Mariasiu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the environmental impact created through the introduction of introducing new technologies in transportation domain. New electric vehicles are considered zero-emission vehicles (ZEV. However, electricity produced in power plants is still predominantly based on fossil fuel usage (required for recharge electric vehicle batteries and thus directly affects the quantity of pollutant emissions and greenhouse gases (CO2, NOx and SOx. Given the structure of EU-wide energy sources used for electricity generation, the potential pollutant emissions stemming from these energy sources, related to energy consumption of an electric vehicle, was determined under the projected environmental impact of specific market penetration of electric vehicles. In addition to the overall impact at the EU level, were identified the countries for which the use of electric vehicles is (or not feasible in terms of reaching the lower values ​​of future emissions compared to the present and future European standards.

  2. Managing CO2 emissions in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obioh, I.B.; Oluwole, A.F.; Akeredolu, F.A.

    1994-01-01

    The energy resources in Nigeria are nearly equally divided between fossil fuels and biofuels. The increasing pressure on them, following expected increased population growth, may lead to substantial emissions of carbon into the atmosphere. Additionally agricultural and forestry management practices in vogue are those related to savannah burning and rotational bush fallow systems, which have been clearly implicated as important sources of CO 2 and trace gases. An integrated model for the prediction of future CO 2 emissions based on fossil fuels and biomass fuels requirements, rates of deforestation and other land-use indices is presented. This is further based on trends in population and economic growth up to the year 2025, with a base year in 1988. A coupled carbon cycle-climate model based on the contribution of CO 2 and other trace gases is established from the proportions of integrated global warming effects for a 20-year averaging time using the product of global warming potential (GWP) and total emissions. An energy-technology inventory approach to optimal resources management is used as a tool for establishing the future scope of reducing the CO 2 emissions through improved fossil fuel energy efficiencies. Scenarios for reduction based on gradual to swift shifts from biomass to fossil and renewable fuels are presented together with expected policy options required to effect them

  3. CO2 emissions of nuclear electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wissel, Steffen; Mayer-Spohn, Oliver; Fahl, Ulrich; Blesl, Markus; Voss, Alfred

    2008-01-01

    A survey of LCA studies on nuclear electricity generation revealed life cycle CO 2 emissions ranging between 3 g/kWhe to 60 g/kWhe and above. Firstly, this paper points out the discrepancies in studies by estimating the CO 2 emissions of nuclear power generation. Secondly, the paper sets out to provide critical review of future developments of the fuel cycle for light water reactors and illustrates the impact of uncertainties on the specific CO 2 emissions of nuclear electricity generation. Each step in the fuel cycle will be considered and with regard to the CO 2 emissions analysed. Thereby different assumptions and uncertainty levels are determined for the nuclear fuel cycle. With the impacts of low uranium ore grades for mining and milling as well as higher burn-up rates future fuel characteristics are considered. Sensitivity analyses are performed for all fuel processing steps, for different technical specifications of light water reactors as well as for further external frame conditions. (authors)

  4. Ship emissions and their externalities for Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzannatos, Ernestos

    2010-06-01

    The existing and emerging international and European policy framework for the reduction of ship exhaust emissions dictates the need to produce reliable national, regional and global inventories in order to monitor emission trends and consequently provide the necessary support for future policy making. Furthermore, the inventories of ship exhaust emissions constitute the basis upon which their external costs are estimated in an attempt to highlight the economic burden they impose upon the society and facilitate the cost-benefit analysis of the proposed emission abatement technologies, operational measures and market-based instruments prior to their implementation. The case of Greece is of particular interest mainly because the dense ship traffic within the Greek seas directly imposes the impact of its exhaust emission pollutants (NO x, SO 2 and PM) upon the highly populated, physically sensitive and culturally precious Greek coastline, as well as upon the land and seas of Greece in general, whereas the contribution of Greece in the global CO 2 inventory at a time of climatic change awareness cannot be ignored. In this context, this paper presents the contribution of Greece in ship exhaust emissions of CO 2, NO x, SO 2 and PM from domestic and international shipping over the last 25 years (1984-2008), utilizing the fuel-based (fuel sales) emission methodology. Furthermore, the ship exhaust emissions generated within the Greek seas and their externalities are estimated for the year 2008, through utilizing the fuel-based (fuel sales) approach for domestic shipping and the activity-based (ship traffic) approach for international shipping. On this basis, it was found that during the 1984 to 2008 period the fuel-based (fuel sales) ship emission inventory for Greece increased at an average annual rate of 2.85%. In 2008, the CO 2, NO x, SO 2 and PM emissions reached 12.9 million tons (of which 12.4 million tons of CO 2) and their externalities were found to be around 3

  5. Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary

    2018-01-01

    Societal risks increase as Earth warms, but also for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate even if they lead to identical warming [1]. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations [2]. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits [3, 4]. However, 2°C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5°C trajectories require elimination of most fossil fuel related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing ambition of 21 st century CO 2 reductions by 180 GtC; an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2°C scenario to 1.5°C or could achieve 2°C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153±43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

  6. Electronic Reporting of Air Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA regulations require affected sources to perform emissions source tests, conduct continuous emissions monitoring, and submit compliance and emissions reports. This site provides technical resources and access for providing such submissions.

  7. Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS) estimates volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from vegetation and nitric oxide (NO) emission from soils. Recent BEIS development has been restricted to the SMOKE system

  8. National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory contains information on direct emissions of greenhouse gases as well as indirect or potential emissions of greenhouse...

  9. Emission sources and quantities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinen, B.

    1991-01-01

    The paper examines emission sources and quantities for SO 2 and NO x . Natural SO 2 is released from volcanic sources and to a much lower extent from marsh gases. In nature NO x is mainly produced in the course of the chemical and bacterial denitrification processes going on in the soil. Manmade pollutants are produced in combustion processes. The paper concentrates on manmade pollution. Aspects discussed include: mechanism of pollution development; manmade emission sources (e.g. industry, traffic, power plants and domestic sources); and emission quantities and forecasts. 11 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  10. Quantification in emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buvat, Irene

    2011-11-01

    The objective of this lecture is to understand the possibilities and limitations of the quantitative analysis of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET) images. It is also to identify the conditions to be fulfilled to obtain reliable quantitative measurements from images. Content: 1 - Introduction: Quantification in emission tomography - definition and challenges; quantification biasing phenomena 2 - Main problems impacting quantification in PET and SPECT: problems, consequences, correction methods, results (Attenuation, scattering, partial volume effect, movement, un-stationary spatial resolution in SPECT, fortuitous coincidences in PET, standardisation in PET); 3 - Synthesis: accessible efficiency, know-how, Precautions, beyond the activity measurement

  11. Single photon emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buvat, Irene

    2011-09-01

    The objective of this lecture is to present the single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) imaging technique. Content: 1 - Introduction: anatomic, functional and molecular imaging; Principle and role of functional or molecular imaging; 2 - Radiotracers: chemical and physical constraints, main emitters, radioisotopes production, emitters type and imaging techniques; 3 - Single photon emission computed tomography: gamma cameras and their components, gamma camera specifications, planar single photon imaging characteristics, gamma camera and tomography; 4 - Quantification in single photon emission tomography: attenuation, scattering, un-stationary spatial resolution, partial volume effect, movements, others; 5 - Synthesis and conclusion

  12. Governance of the future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galløe, Lotte Rannveig

    a different future for both parents and children. Thus, the approach to PMTO as a technology of the future indicates its expected prevalence in the future and its attempt to reach in to the future becoming of the child. The technology’s involvement of the relatives and its orientation towards shaping......In my presentation I will explore the concept, ‘technology of the future’, in public governance. Public governance within social services aims at changing the existing conditions for the marginalized citizens including children with special needs. I pose the question: what happens if public...... governance seek to chance the possible future conditions and targets the marginalized child’s relatives? Parent Management Training (PMTO) is studied as a technology of the future that expands and transforms governance. PMTO targets parents with aggressive and asocial children and aims to “create the parent...

  13. Future-Oriented LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

    2018-01-01

    LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...... challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future...... technological and economic developments are indispensable in future technology assessments. The uncertainties in future-oriented LCAs are to a large extent qualitative and it is important to emphasise that LCA of future technologies will provide a set of answers and not ‘the’ answer....

  14. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  15. Identifying and characterizing major emission point sources as a basis for geospatial distribution of mercury emissions inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuisen, Frits; Wilson, Simon J.

    2015-07-01

    Mercury is a global pollutant that poses threats to ecosystem and human health. Due to its global transport, mercury contamination is found in regions of the Earth that are remote from major emissions areas, including the Polar regions. Global anthropogenic emission inventories identify important sectors and industries responsible for emissions at a national level; however, to be useful for air transport modelling, more precise information on the locations of emission is required. This paper describes the methodology applied, and the results of work that was conducted to assign anthropogenic mercury emissions to point sources as part of geospatial mapping of the 2010 global anthropogenic mercury emissions inventory prepared by AMAP/UNEP. Major point-source emission sectors addressed in this work account for about 850 tonnes of the emissions included in the 2010 inventory. This work allocated more than 90% of these emissions to some 4600 identified point source locations, including significantly more point source locations in Africa, Asia, Australia and South America than had been identified during previous work to geospatially-distribute the 2005 global inventory. The results demonstrate the utility and the limitations of using existing, mainly public domain resources to accomplish this work. Assumptions necessary to make use of selected online resources are discussed, as are artefacts that can arise when these assumptions are applied to assign (national-sector) emissions estimates to point sources in various countries and regions. Notwithstanding the limitations of the available information, the value of this procedure over alternative methods commonly used to geo-spatially distribute emissions, such as use of 'proxy' datasets to represent emissions patterns, is illustrated. Improvements in information that would facilitate greater use of these methods in future work to assign emissions to point-sources are discussed. These include improvements to both national

  16. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  17. Reducing global NOx emissions: developing advanced energy and transportation technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Michael J; Jones, Brian M

    2002-03-01

    Globally, energy demand is projected to continue to increase well into the future. As a result, global NOx emissions are projected to continue on an upward trend for the foreseeable future as developing countries increase their standards of living. While the US has experienced improvements in reducing NOx emissions from stationary and mobile sources to reduce ozone, further progress is needed to reduce the health and ecosystem impacts associated with NOx emissions. In other parts of the world, (in developing countries in particular) NOx emissions have been increasing steadily with the growth in demand for electricity and transportation. Advancements in energy and transportation technologies may help avoid this increase in emissions if appropriate policies are implemented. This paper evaluates commercially available power generation and transportation technologies that produce fewer NOx emissions than conventional technologies, and advanced technologies that are on the 10-year commercialization horizon. Various policy approaches will be evaluated which can be implemented on the regional, national and international levels to promote these advanced technologies and ultimately reduce NOx emissions. The concept of the technology leap is offered as a possibility for the developing world to avoid the projected increases in NOx emissions.

  18. GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

    2016-04-01

    India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

  19. National Emission Inventory (NEI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data exchange allows states to submit data to the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Emissions Inventory (NEI). NEI is a national database of air...

  20. 2011 NATA - Emissions Sources

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset includes all emissions sources that were modeled in the 2011 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA), inlcluding point, nonpoint, and mobile sources, and...

  1. Cardiac positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eftekhari, M.; Ejmalian, G.

    2003-01-01

    Positron emission tomography is an intrinsically tool that provide a unique and unparalleled approach for clinicians and researchers to interrogate the heart noninvasively. The ability to label substances of physiological interest with positron-emitting radioisotopes has permitted insight into normal blood flow and metabolism and the alterations that occur with disease states. Positron emission tomography of the heart has evolved as a unique, noninvasive approach for the assessment of myocardial perfusion, metabolism, and function. Because of the intrinsic quantitative nature of positron emission tomography measurements as well as the diverse compounds that can be labeled with positron- emitting radioisotopes, studies with positron emission tomography have provided rich insight into the physiology of the heart under diverse conditions

  2. Pulsar Emission Spectrum

    OpenAIRE

    Gruzinov, Andrei

    2013-01-01

    Emission spectrum is calculated for a weak axisymmetric pulsar. Also calculated are the observed spectrum, efficiency, and the observed efficiency. The underlying flow of electrons and positrons turns out to be curiously intricate.

  3. Biogenic Emission Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogenic emissions sources come from natural sources and need to accounted for in photochemical grid models. They are computed using a model which utilizes spatial information on vegetation and land use.

  4. Photon enhanced thermionic emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwede, Jared; Melosh, Nicholas; Shen, Zhixun

    2014-10-07

    Photon Enhanced Thermionic Emission (PETE) is exploited to provide improved efficiency for radiant energy conversion. A hot (greater than 200.degree. C.) semiconductor cathode is illuminated such that it emits electrons. Because the cathode is hot, significantly more electrons are emitted than would be emitted from a room temperature (or colder) cathode under the same illumination conditions. As a result of this increased electron emission, the energy conversion efficiency can be significantly increased relative to a conventional photovoltaic device. In PETE, the cathode electrons can be (and typically are) thermalized with respect to the cathode. As a result, PETE does not rely on emission of non-thermalized electrons, and is significantly easier to implement than hot-carrier emission approaches.

  5. Positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iio, Masahiro

    1982-01-01

    Utilization of positron emission tomography was reviewed in relation to construction and planned construction of small-size medical cyclotrons, planned construction of positron cameras and utilization of short-lived radionuclides. (Chiba, N.)

  6. Radiated Emissions Test Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-02

    1. Draft Department of Transportation (DOT) Test Plan to Develop : Interference Tolerance Masks for GNSS Receivers in the L1 : Radiofrequency Band (1559 1610 MHz) provides high level : overview of radiated emissions test setup : 2. Presenta...

  7. Nanoscale Terahertz Emission Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Pernille Klarskov; Kim, Hyewon; Colvin, Vicki L.

    By utilizing plasmonic coupling to an AFM probe, we demonstrate Laser Terahertz Emission Nanoscopy (LTEN) with sub-20 nm resolution. We demonstrate the resolution by imaging a single gold nanorod on an InAs substrate....

  8. Exoelectron emission and its application for dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawanishi, Masaharu

    1975-01-01

    The research on exoelectron emission has been recently very active in its fundamentals and applications. In the basic study, exoelectron emission and thermo-luminescence are explained by using energy band model. Physical and chemical properties of material surface, specifically surface adsorption phenomena, have been proven experimentally to give important effect on exoelectron emission by several people. It will be necessary in future that the identification of emitted particles and energy measurement become common in exoelectron physics. In spite of the difficulty to fabricate the uniformly stable materials emitting exoelectrons, much efforts are being made in the researches on the application to radiation dosimeters. The principal materials used to date are BeO, LiF, Al 2 O 3 , CaF 2 and CaSO 4 , the last one being most sensitive. On the other hand, the detectors for thermally stimulated exoelectron emission are important not only as dosimeters but for basic research promotion. The most convenient detector is a gas flow GM tube. Q gas or methane is used as flow gas. Though there remains many unknown fields in exoelectron emission mechanism, success in the application researches to effectively utilize their peculiarity and advantages is expected. (Wakatsuki, Y.)

  9. The primordial helium abundance from updated emissivities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D.; Porter, R.L.

    2013-01-01

    Observations of metal-poor extragalactic H II regions allow the determination of the primordial helium abundance, Y p . The He I emissivities are the foundation of the model of the H II region's emission. Porter, Ferland, Storey, and Detisch (2012) have recently published updated He I emissivities based on improved photoionization cross-sections. We incorporate these new atomic data and update our recent Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of the dataset published by Izotov, Thuan, and Stasi'nska (2007). As before, cuts are made to promote quality and reliability, and only solutions which fit the data within 95% confidence level are used to determine the primordial He abundance. The previously qualifying dataset is almost entirely retained and with strong concordance between the physical parameters. Overall, an upward bias from the new emissivities leads to a decrease in Y p . In addition, we find a general trend to larger uncertainties in individual objects (due to changes in the emissivities) and an increased variance (due to additional objects included). From a regression to zero metallicity, we determine Y p = 0.2465 ± 0.0097, in good agreement with the BBN result, Y p = 0.2485 ± 0.0002, based on the Planck determination of the baryon density. In the future, a better understanding of why a large fraction of spectra are not well fit by the model will be crucial to achieving an increase in the precision of the primordial helium abundance determination

  10. Emission spectrochemical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rives, R.D.; Bruks, R.R.

    1983-01-01

    The emission spectrochemical method of analysis based on the fact that atoms of elements can be excited in the electric arc or in the laser beam and will emit radiation with characteristic wave lengths is considered. The review contains the data on spectrochemical analysis, of liquids geological materials, scheme of laser microprobe. The main characteristics of emission spectroscopy, atomic absorption spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescent analysis, are aeneralized

  11. Positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandrasekhar, Preethi; Himabindu, Pucha

    2000-01-01

    Positron Emission Tomography (PET) is a non-invasive nuclear imaging technique used to study different molecular pathways and anatomical structures. PET has found extensive applications in various fields of medicine viz. cardiology, oncology, psychiatry/psychology, neuro science and pulmonology. This study paper basically deals with the physics, chemistry and biology behind the PET technique. It discusses the methodology for generation of the radiotracers responsible for emission of positrons and the annihilation and detection techniques. (author)

  12. The climate impact of future energy peat production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagberg, Linus; Holmgren, Kristina

    2008-09-15

    The aim of this study was to estimate total greenhouse gas emissions and climate impact of different peat utilisation scenarios, using a life cycle perspective. This and previous studies show that the climate impact from energy peat utilisation is more complex than just considering the emissions at the combustion stage. There are important emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases that occur on the peatland before, during and after peat harvest. The results show that the climate impact of future peat utilisation can be significantly reduced compared to current utilisation and will be lower than the climate impact resulting from only the combustion phase. This can be achieved by choosing already drained peatlands with high greenhouse gas emissions, using a more efficient production method and by securing a low-emission after-treatment of the cutaway (e.g. afforestation)

  13. Modeling emissions for three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry transport models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthias, Volker; Arndt, Jan A; Aulinger, Armin; Bieser, Johannes; Denier Van Der Gon, Hugo; Kranenburg, Richard; Kuenen, Jeroen; Neumann, Daniel; Pouliot, George; Quante, Markus

    2018-01-24

    methods to distribute the emissions in time and space need to be replaced by sophisticated emission models in order to improve the CTM results. New methods, e.g. for ammonia emissions, provide grid cell dependent temporal profiles. In the future, large data fields from traffic observations or satellite observations could be used for more detailed emission data.

  14. Considering a healthy future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van Jannette

    2016-01-01

    Trade-offs between current and future consequences are characteristic for the domain of health behavior. Therefore, both eating and exercising behavior could be determined by time orientation, which refers to an individual’s general orientation toward the present or the future. The main aim of

  15. Mobile energy sharing futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Worgan, Paul; Knibbe, Jarrod; Plasencia, Diego Martinez

    2016-01-01

    We foresee a future where energy in our mobile devices can be shared and redistributed to suit our current task needs. Many of us are beginning to carry multiple mobile devices and we seek to re-evaluate the traditional view of a mobile device as only accepting energy. In our vision, we can...... sharing futures....

  16. The Future as Fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Lane

    Because good future studies and good fiction have a great deal in common, futurists need to recognize and apply the skills of word artists from all genres, particularly novelists and short-story writers. One form of science fiction that futurists could use is the scenario, which is an exploration of an alternative future. A good scenario should be…

  17. Framework for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuller, Tom

    2008-01-01

    The main goal of the Inquiry into the Future for Lifelong Learning is to provide a "strategic framework" for the future. In this article, the author considers the key components that will make up the framework. These are: (1) a statement of vision and values; (2) a stock-take of the current position; (3) an "investment…

  18. (Some) Computer Futures: Mainframes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Earl C.

    Possible futures for the world of mainframe computers can be forecast through studies identifying forces of change and their impact on current trends. Some new prospects for the future have been generated by advances in information technology; for example, recent United States successes in applied artificial intelligence (AI) have created new…

  19. Summaries and future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Egelstaff, P.A.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper the author gives a brief summary of this meeting. He discusses the status at the current neutron sources and future sources. The current problems with targets, moderators, performance of storage rings and shields are briefly mentioned. Finally, he speculates on the prospects of neutron sources for the future and gives his version of the ultimate source

  20. Emission factors of the iron and steel sector for the emission reporting; Emissionsfaktoren zur Eisen- und Stahlindustrie fuer die Emissionsberichterstattung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hensmann, Michael; Haardt, Sebastian; Ebert, Dominik [Betriebsforschungsinstitut VDEh-Institut fuer Angewandte Forschung GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    2012-10-15

    The German Umweltbundesamt (UBA) records emission factors of important groups of emitters of the iron- and steelmaking industry in a central database named ''Zentrales System Emissionen'' (ZSE) since 1990. This data is being used for calculations of emission inventories. The main purposes are the generation of forecasts, calculating emissions of other plants and the appraisal of potential measures for reduction of pollution. This makes it possible to identify and appraise future problems and measures. Because of steadily increasing requirements to data quality and quality assurance, it became necessary to update the ZSE with characteristical emission data in order to give a representative view of relevant stages in the iron- and steelmaking industry with respect to emissions. In 2008, the VDEh-Betriebsforschungsinstitut (BFI) was assigned to determine up-to-date emission factors for the following relevant stages in the iron- and steelmaking industry: - sintering plant - coking plant - blast furnace - steel making (differentiated between oxygen and electric steel making) - production of rolled steel Due to a wide diversity of data quality, a consecutive project to determine the corresponding uncertainty of the emission factors was integrated into the ongoing project. This is necessary to create reliable forecasts of emissions and to meet national and international duties of reporting. The project was supported by 18 companies of the German iron- and steelmaking industry. A total of 40 relevant sources of emissions were identified within the five stages of steelmaking and taken into consideration. The emission data for documenting organic and inorganic components of harmful gas, heavy metals and air borne dusts in the ZSE was taken from the reports of emissions 2008 of the supporting companies and made up for a total of 63 plants. Due to a wide variety of data quality the emissions of point sources and diffuse sources are treated separately. While

  1. Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodard, J.D.; Egelkraut, T.M.; Garcia, P.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Portfolio Diversification with Commodity Futures: Properties of Levered Futures This study extends previous work on the impact of commodity futures on portfolio performance by explicitly incorporating levered futures into the portfolio optimization problem. Using data on nine individual commodity

  2. The value of advanced technology in meeting 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyle, Page; Clarke, Leon; Pugh, Graham; Wise, Marshall; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James; Kim, Son

    2009-01-01

    This paper, a contribution to the EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios, examines the relationship between technology evolution over the next 40 years and the cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions consequences of possible U.S. mitigation goals. The paper explores these issues within the context of cumulative emissions targets based on linear reductions in CO 2 -e emissions of 50% and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Six technology futures were constructed within the MiniCAM integrated assessment model and then applied to the emissions targets. The paper explores the influence of technology availability and expectations of future technology availability on the economic consequences of emissions mitigation, on the time path of emissions mitigation, and on the evolution of the U.S. energy system over time. One of the strongest themes to emerge from the scenarios in this study is that near-term decision-making depends on the availability of technology decades into the future, when deep emissions reductions are required to meet the cumulative emissions goals. In the scenarios in this paper, it is the expectations about future technology that have the most dramatic effect on greenhouse gas emissions prices and emissions reductions in 2020, as opposed to near-term technology availability. Moreover, it is the nature of technology 20, 30, and 40 years out, rather than availability and deployment of technology in the next decade, that will largely determine the character of the mid-century energy system.

  3. Transient Infrared Emission Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Roger W.; McClelland, John F.

    1989-12-01

    Transient Infrared Emission Spectroscopy (TIRES) is a new technique that reduces the occurrence of self-absorption in optically thick solid samples so that analytically useful emission spectra may be observed. Conventional emission spectroscopy, in which the sample is held at an elevated, uniform temperature, is practical only for optically thin samples. In thick samples the emission from deep layers of the material is partially absorbed by overlying layers.1 This self-absorption results in emission spectra from most optically thick samples that closely resemble black-body spectra. The characteristic discrete emission bands are severely truncated and altered in shape. TIRES bypasses this difficulty by using a laser to heat only an optically thin surface layer. The increased temperature of the layer is transient since the layer will rapidly cool and thicken by thermal diffusion; hence the emission collection must be correlated with the laser heating. TIRES may be done with both pulsed and cw lasers.2,3 When a pulsed laser is used, the spectrometer sampling must be synchronized with the laser pulsing so that only emission during and immediately after each laser pulse is observed.3 If a cw laser is used, the sample must move rapidly through the beam. The hot, transient layer is then in the beam track on the sample at and immediately behind the beam position, so the spectrometer field of view must be limited to this region near the beam position.2 How much self-absorption the observed emission suffers depends on how thick the heated layer has grown by thermal diffusion when the spectrometer samples the emission. Use of a pulsed laser synchronized with the spectrometer sampling readily permits reduction of the time available for heat diffusion to about 100 acs .3 When a cw laser is used, the heat-diffusion time is controlled by how small the spectrometer field of view is and by how rapidly the sample moves past within this field. Both a very small field of view and a

  4. Critical emission from a high-spin black hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupsasca, Alexandru; Porfyriadis, Achilleas P.; Shi, Yichen

    2018-03-01

    We consider a rapidly spinning black hole surrounded by an equatorial, geometrically thin, slowly accreting disk that is stationary and axisymmetric. We analytically compute the broadening of electromagnetic line emissions from the innermost part of the disk, which resides in the near-horizon region. The result is independent of the disk's surface emissivity and therefore universal. This is an example of critical behavior in astronomy that is potentially observable by current or future telescopes.

  5. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

    2016-10-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

  6. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Pacyna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

  7. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  8. Energy-efficient houses. Scenarios, efforts and means of action with an emphasis on energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. Main Report of the KLIMATEK project 'The energy systems of the future in existing and new buildings - a higher level analysis emphasising status and scenarios'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjaerde, Anne Cathrine; Livik, Klaus; Stene, Joern; Grinden, Bjoern; Tokle, Trude; Thyholt, Marit; Groenli, Morten

    1999-04-01

    The project referred to in the heading concentrated on energy use and carbon dioxide emissions relating to heating of houses in Norway. There are many ways of reducing energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, but the measures taken are often unprofitable because of high investment costs and relatively moderate energy prices. The development of society, environmental policy and technology strongly affects the development and management of the buildings, and this project could only elucidate a limited number of approaches of current interest. About 60% of the energy needed for heating houses comes from electricity, and the use of electricity for general purposes is increasing. Norway will probably become a major net importer of electric power within a few years unless strong measures are taken. Most of the carbon dioxide emission from buildings are due to oil fuel firing

  9. Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future