Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

Science.gov (United States)

Galford, Gillian L; Melillo, Jerry M; Kicklighter, David W; Cronin, Timothy W; Cerri, Carlos E P; Mustard, John F; Cerri, Carlos C

2010-11-16

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

Science.gov (United States)

Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

2015-12-01

Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Schu, Kathryn; Sue Wing, Ian; Calvin, Katherine

2012-01-01

What are the drivers of future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions growth and how would the availability of key energy supply technologies change their relative importance? In this paper, we apply a novel index number decomposition technique to the results of a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model to quantify the influence of five factors on the growth of future carbon emissions: (1) growth in global economic activity; (2) shifts in the regional composition of gross world product; (3) shifts in the sectoral composition of regions' GDP; (4) changes in sectors' energy–output ratios; and (5) changes in the CO 2 intensity of energy sources. We elucidate how the relative importance of these factors changes in response to the imposition of a global carbon tax and alternative assumptions about the future availability of key energy supply technologies. Rising global economic activity and shifts in regional composition put upward pressure on emissions while changes in energy and emission intensity and the sectoral output mix have attenuating effects. A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix, with the most pronounced impacts on China, India, and Russia. Limited availability of carbon capture and storage, nuclear, and hydroelectric generation all lead to upward shifts in the long-run marginal abatement cost curve, causing some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate. - Highlights: ► Index number decomposition is used to quantify the influence of five factors. ► The relative importance of these factors in response to alternative assumptions is measured. ► A global emission tax that increases over time slows economic expansion and shifts the fuel mix. ► Limited technology availability mean some countries to choose to pay the tax rather than abate.

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

2006-01-01

This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Natarajan, Sukumar; Levermore, Geoffrey J.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research. (author)

Impact of reformulated gasoline on emissions from current and future vehicles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colucci, J.M.; Benson, J.D.

1993-01-01

Gasolines reformulated specifically for reducing vehicle emissions will result in the most significant changes in the U.S. refining industry since the advent of unleaded gasoline. This paper will review the results from the Auto/Oil Air Quality Improvement Research Program showing the beneficial effects on vehicle emissions of individually decreasing gasoline aromatic, olefin and sulfur contents, 90% distillation temperature, and Reid vapor pressure, and of adding oxygenates. The paper discusses the importance of reformulated gasolines for reducing emissions from existing vehicles by complying with requirements in the Clean Air Act and California's Low Emission Vehicle/Clean Fuels Program. It will show the importance of controlling Vehicle/Clean Fuels Program. It will show the importance of controlling specific aromatic and olefin compounds in gasoline, and it will discuss how automotive manufacturers will utilize reformulated gasolines to meet future stringent vehicle emission standards

Global climate targets and future consumption level: an evaluation of the required GHG intensity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girod, Bastien; Van Vuuren, Detlef Peter; Hertwich, Edgar G

2013-01-01

Discussion and analysis on international climate policy often focuses on the rather abstract level of total national and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At some point, however, emission reductions need to be translated to consumption level. In this article, we evaluate the implications of the strictest IPCC representative concentration pathway for key consumption categories (food, travel, shelter, goods, services). We use IPAT style identities to account for possible growth in global consumption levels and indicate the required change in GHG emission intensity for each category (i.e. GHG emission per calorie, person kilometer, square meter, kilogram, US dollar). The proposed concept provides guidance for product developers, consumers and policymakers. To reach the 2 °C climate target (2.1 tCO 2 -eq. per capita in 2050), the GHG emission intensity of consumption has to be reduced by a factor of 5 in 2050. The climate targets on consumption level allow discussion of the feasibility of this climate target at product and consumption level. In most consumption categories products in line with this climate target are available. For animal food and air travel, reaching the GHG intensity targets with product modifications alone will be challenging and therefore structural changes in consumption patterns might be needed. The concept opens up possibilities for further research on potential solutions on the consumption and product level to global climate mitigation. (letter)

A probabilistic approach to examine the impacts of mitigation policies on future global PM emissions from on-road vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

2012-12-01

There is deficiency in the determination of emission reduction potential in the future, especially with consideration of uncertainty. Mitigation measures for some economic sectors have been proposed, but few studies provide an evaluation of the amount of PM emission reduction that can be obtained in future years by different emission reduction strategies. We attribute the absence of helpful mitigation strategy analysis to limitations in the technical detail of future emission scenarios, which result in the inability to relate technological or regulatory intervention to emission changes. The purpose of this work is to provide a better understanding of the potential benefits of mitigation policies in addressing global and regional emissions. In this work, we introduce a probabilistic approach to explore the impacts of retrofit and scrappage on global PM emissions from on-road vehicles in the coming decades. This approach includes scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. A dynamic model of vehicle population linked to emission characteristics, SPEW-Trend, is used to estimate future emissions and make policy evaluations. Three basic questions will be answered in this work: (1) what contribution can these two programs make to improve global emissions in the future? (2) in which regions are such programs most and least effective in reducing emissions and what features of the vehicle fleet cause these results? (3) what is the level of confidence in the projected emission reductions, given uncertain parameters in describing the dynamic vehicle fleet?

Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

Science.gov (United States)

Fofrich, R.; Shearer, C.; Davis, S. J.

2017-12-01

India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions due to its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves. In this study, we assess existing and proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future energy production and emissions in the country. In 2016, India had 369 coal-fired power plants under development totaling 243 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity. These coal-fired power plants would increase India's coal-fired generating capacity by 123% and would exceed India's projected electricity demand. Therefore, India's current proposals for new coal-fired power plants would be forced to retire early or operate at very low capacity factors and/or would prevent India from meeting its goal of producing at least 40% of its power from renewable sources by 2030. In addition, future emissions from proposed coal-fired power plants would exceed India's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% - 35% by 2030.

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-15

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

Future Tense and Economic Decisions: Controlling for Cultural Evolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Seán G; Winters, James; Chen, Keith

2015-01-01

A previous study by Chen demonstrates a correlation between languages that grammatically mark future events and their speakers' propensity to save, even after controlling for numerous economic and demographic factors. The implication is that languages which grammatically distinguish the present and the future may bias their speakers to distinguish them psychologically, leading to less future-oriented decision making. However, Chen's original analysis assumed languages are independent. This neglects the fact that languages are related, causing correlations to appear stronger than is warranted (Galton's problem). In this paper, we test the robustness of Chen's correlations to corrections for the geographic and historical relatedness of languages. While the question seems simple, the answer is complex. In general, the statistical correlation between the two variables is weaker when controlling for relatedness. When applying the strictest tests for relatedness, and when data is not aggregated across individuals, the correlation is not significant. However, the correlation did remain reasonably robust under a number of tests. We argue that any claims of synchronic patterns between cultural variables should be tested for spurious correlations, with the kinds of approaches used in this paper. However, experiments or case-studies would be more fruitful avenues for future research on this specific topic, rather than further large-scale cross-cultural correlational studies.

Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Lin Chang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

[Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jian-gong; Zhu, Qiu-an; Shen, Yan; Yang, Yan-zheng; Luo, Yun-peng; Peng, Chang-hui

2015-11-01

Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2004-01-01

We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

Managing traffic induced emissions in the future Beirut Central Business District

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Fadel, Mutasem; Sbayti, Hayssam; Kayssi, Isam; Baaj, Hadi

2003-01-01

The increased urbanization of the Greater Beirut Area (GBA) over the past years has led severe traffic congestion due to a deficient transportation system and significant reliance on private vehicles as the primary passenger transport mode. As a result, air quality is continuously deteriorating particularly in densely populated areas. Beirut Central District (BCD), the center of economic growth in the GBA, is expected to witness adverse air quality impacts in the medium and long-term future. Hence, there is a growing need to couple the efficiency of transport activities with acceptable air quality since both factors affect the welfare of residents. The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of selected traffic management alternatives and emission reduction strategies on air quality in the BCD area. Four traffic alternatives and three emission reduction strategies were analyzed for their effect on emission factors, total emissions and exposure levels

Electron emission and work function-Past, present and future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamamoto, Shigehiko

2005-01-01

The history of electron emission is reviewed from a standpoint of the work function and the applications. For years, in the field of thermionic emission, a great deal of efforts have been devoted to search for low work function materials with a high melting temperature, while the reduction of the local change in time of the work function rather than the work function itself has been the main issue of field emission investigations. High brightness and long life are the central targets of the emission material investigations for the scientific instrument application, while high current density and low power consumption are the guiding principles for the display application. In both fields, field emission has recently become dominant in research and development. In all above cases, the main issue in the future research works will be to analyze the work function in atomic level and thereby to understand the mechanism of the work function reduction by atom adsorption, the change in time of the local work function leading to the current fluctuation, and the relationship between microscopic and macroscopic work functions. Our attempt is discussed, where the work function in atomic level is measured by utilizing the STM technique and it is made clear how far the work function in atomic level extends its influence over the neighboring sites. As a result, a simple relationship is established between microscopic and macroscopic work functions

Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, Christine; Fofrich, Robert; Davis, Steven J.

2017-04-01

With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid-2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under-development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non-fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal-fired plants could therefore either "strand" fossil energy assets (i.e., force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by "locking-out" new, low-carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial era.

The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B.; Allwood, Julian M.

2017-05-01

Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

The new 1.8 l TFSI engine from Audi. Pt. 2. Mixture formation, combustion method and turbocharging; Der neue 1,8-L-TFSI-Motor von Audi. T. 2. Gemischbildung, Brennverfahren und Aufladung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heiduk, Thomas; Kuhn, Michael; Stichlmeir, Maximilian; Unselt, Florian [Audi AG, Ingolstadt (Germany)

2011-07-15

The launch of the new 1.8 l TFSI engine marks the third generation of the successful four-cylinder gasoline engine family from Audi. With consistently reduced frictional losses, the advanced combustion process and new mono-scroll turbocharger and electric wastegate technology, the engine represents a new benchmark in terms of performance and fuel-efficiency. The power plant has already been configured to meet even the strictest future emissions standards worldwide. The mixture formation, the combustion process and the turbocharger of the new engine are described below. The base engine and the thermomanagement system were described in the first part of this article in MTZ 6. (orig.)

Future Emissions from Railway Traffic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sorenson, Spencer C.

1998-01-01

In investigation of the expected development in factors which influence railway energy consumption and emissions. Traffic factors such as train speed, load, an occupancy were considered. Tehcnical factors such an emissions factors, fleet composition and train weight were also considered. An estim......In investigation of the expected development in factors which influence railway energy consumption and emissions. Traffic factors such as train speed, load, an occupancy were considered. Tehcnical factors such an emissions factors, fleet composition and train weight were also considered...

Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garg, A. [Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International India, 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi - 110057 (India); Shukla, P.R. [Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India); Ghosh, D. [Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University (United States); Kapshe, M.; Rajesh, N. [Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015 (India)

2003-07-01

This paper estimates the future greenhouse gas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions for India under various scenarios. The reference scenario assumes continuation of the current official policies of the Indian government and forecasts of macro-economic, demographic and energy sector indicators. Other scenarios analyzed are the economic growth scenarios (high and low), carbon mitigation scenario, sulfur mitigation scenario and frozen (development) scenario. The main insight is that GHG and local pollutant emissions from India, although connected, do not move in synchronization in future and have a disjoint under various scenarios. GHG emissions continue to rise while local pollutant emissions decrease after some years. GHG emission mitigation therefore would have to be pursued for its own sake in India. National energy security concerns also favor this conclusion since coal is the abundant national resource while most of the natural gas has to be imported. The analysis of contributing factors to this disjoint indicates that sulfur reduction in petroleum oil products and penetration of flue gas desulfurisation technologies are the two main contributors for sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation. The reduction in particulate emissions is mainly due to enforcing electro-static precipitator efficiency norms in industrial units, with cleaner fuels and vehicles also contributing substantially. These policy trends are already visible in India. Another insight is that high economic growth is better than lower growth to mitigate local pollution as lack of investible resources limits investments in cleaner environmental measures. Our analysis also validates the environmental Kuznets' curve for India as SO2 emissions peak around per capita GDP of US$ 5,300-5,400 (PPP basis) under various economic growth scenarios.

Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duan, Hongbo, E-mail: hbduan@ucas.ac.cn

2017-01-15

Background: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. Methods: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Results: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Conclusions: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. - Highlights: • We assess the warming benefits associated with substitution of wind power for coal. • The effect of emission space limits on climate responses is deeply examined. • China is responsible for at most 21.76% of global warming given the 2-degree target. • Wind power alone may not be sufficient to face the challenge of climate change. • A fertile policy soil and an aggressive plan are necessary to boost renewables.

Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duan, Hongbo

2017-01-01

Background: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. Methods: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Results: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Conclusions: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. - Highlights: • We assess the warming benefits associated with substitution of wind power for coal. • The effect of emission space limits on climate responses is deeply examined. • China is responsible for at most 21.76% of global warming given the 2-degree target. • Wind power alone may not be sufficient to face the challenge of climate change. • A fertile policy soil and an aggressive plan are necessary to boost renewables.

Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

2018-02-01

Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

Current and future trends in global landfill gas generation and emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meadows, M.; Franklin, C.; Campbell, D.

1996-01-01

This paper assesses the magnitude and distribution of current and future methane generation and emissions from landfill on a world-wide basis. It also estimates the current and future global potential for energy recovery from landfill methane. The mass of methane emitted from land disposal of wastes in any country depends on the waste management strategy of that country. In turn, the waste management strategy of a country depends on its population size, relative proportion living in rural or urban regions and the economic development of the country. We estimate by 2010 there will be a large increase in global methane emissions from solid wastes disposed on land. This increase will be largely from developing regions of the world. The main factor driving this increase is a population shift from rural to urban areas, particularly in regions of highest population, i.e. China and India. This will lead to a greater concentration of waste generation, in turn leading to increased disposal of wastes in deeper sites. In addition increased industrialisation and improved standard of living in regions of high population, will increase the mass of waste disposed of per person and the degradable carbon content of the waste, i.e. the waste will become more like waste from developed countries. In contrast, methane emissions from waste disposed on land in developed countries is likely to decrease by 2010, mainly as result of increased collection and combustion of landfill methane. (Author)

Rolling towards a cleaner future: the development of Canadian locomotive emissions regulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-12-01

In 2006, the Government of Canada published a notice of intent that it would develop regulations aimed at reducing anthropogenic criteria air contaminants and greenhouse gas emissions. The Government now intends to develop railway emissions regulations for criteria air contaminants under the Railway Safety Act. The Railway Safety Act not only provides the legislative basis for developing regulations governing railways, it also gives the authority for developing the rules governing federally regulated railroads to the Minister of Transport. For the future, Transport Canada will be responsible for developing regulations governing the rail sector. The transportation sector is a substantial emitter of criteria air contaminants, so rail transportation is a key element of the current work. This paper seeks to give a framework for consultations with stakeholders and facilitate dialogue. It collects feedback from stakeholders on the design of a Canadian regulatory regime for locomotive-generated criteria air contaminant emissions. Canadian railways have managed locomotive air contaminant emissions since 1995.

Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation of Canadian oil sands to future markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarnoczi, Tyler

2013-01-01

Oil sands transportation diversification is important for preventing discounted crude pricing. Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil transportation are linearly-scale and fail to account for project specific details. This research sets out to develop a detailed LCA model to compare the energy inputs and GHG emissions of pipeline and rail transportation for oil sands products. The model is applied to several proposed oils sands transportation routes that may serve as future markets. Comparison between transportation projects suggest that energy inputs and GHG emissions show a high degree of variation. For both rail and pipeline transportation, the distance over which the product is transported has a large impact on total emissions. The regional electricity grid and pump efficiency have the largest impact on pipeline emissions, while train engine efficiency and bitumen blending ratios have the largest impact on rail transportation emissions. LCA-based GHG regulations should refine models to account for the range of product pathways and focus efforts on cost-effective emission reductions. As the climate-change impacts of new oil sands transportation projects are considered, GHG emission boundaries should be defined according to operation control. -- Highlights: •A life cycle model is developed to compare transportation of oil sands products. •The model is applied to several potential future oil sands markets. •Energy inputs and GHG emissions are compared. •Model inputs are explored using sensitivity analysis. •Policy recommendations are provided

Future emissions pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Grubb, M.; Rogelj, J.; Skeie, R. B.; Friedlingstein, P.; Forster, P.; Frame, D. J.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Allen, M. R.

2016-12-01

The stated aim of the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement is `holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C'. We show that emissions reductions proportional to those achieved in an ambitious mitigation scenario, RCP2.6, but beginning in 2017, give a median estimated peak warming of 1.5°C, with a likely (66% probability) range of uncertainty of 1.2-2.0°C. Such a scenario would be approximately consistent with the most ambitious interpretation of the 2030 emissions pledges, but requires reduction rates exceeding 0.3GtC/yr/yr after 2030. A steady reduction at less than half this rate would achieve the same temperature outcome if initiated in 2020. Limiting total CO2 emissions after 2015 to 200GtC would limit future warming to likely less than 0.6°C above present, consistent with 1.5°C above pre-industrial, based on the distribution of responses of the CMIP5 Earth System, but the CMIP5 simulations do not correspond to scenarios that aim to limit warming to such low levels. If future CO2 emissions are successfully adapted to the emerging climate response so as to limit warming in 2100 to 0.6°C above present, and non-CO2 emissions follow the ambitious RCP2.6 scenario, then we estimate that resulting CO2 emissions will unlikely be restricted to less than 250GtC given current uncertainties in climate system response, although still-poorly-modelled carbon cycle feedbacks, such as release from permafrost, may encroach on this budget. Even under a perfectly successful adaptive mitigation regime, emissions consistent with limiting warming to 0.6°C above present are unlikely to be greater than 500GtC.These estimates suggest the 1.5°C goal may not yet be geophysically insurmountable but will nevertheless require, at minimum, the full implementation of the most ambitious interpretation of the Paris pledges followed by accelerated and more fundamental changes in our

Future needs for ship emission abatement and technical measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Teresa ANTES

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The International Maritime Organization (IMO has revised air pollution regulations in MARPOL Annex VI. In 2012 Emission Control Areas (ECA will limit fuel sulphur content to 1% and from 2015 to 0.1%. NOx emissions based on ships engine speed are also reduced for new vessels (2012 & 2016. Facing this legislation, ship owners have the alternative either to operate ships with costly low-sulphur fuels, or to keep using HFO but together with a gas cleaning equipment at the ship stack in order to reduce the rejected amount of SO2 gas in the atmosphere. To achieve this requirement, research and development organizations came out with proposing a solution that uses a device for cleaning exhaust gas of marine diesel engines. The paper presents a short communication about the DEECON project, which aim is to create a novel on-board after-treatment unit more advanced than any currently available. Each sub-unit of the system will be optimized to remove a specific primary pollutant. In particular, the technology within the DEECON system is based on novel or improved abatement techniques for reducing SOx, NOx, Particulate Matter (PM, CO and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC. Some of these technologies are completely new for the maritime sector and they will represent a breakthrough in the reduction of the atmospheric emissions of ships, moving forward the performance of exhaust gas cleaning systems and fostering and anticipating the adoption of future and tighter regulatory requirements. In addition, an after-treatment strategy enables the possible adoption of alternative fuels, which often have their own emissions characteristics.

Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2013-09-17

Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

A multinational model for CO2 reduction: defining boundaries of future CO2 emissions in nine countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kram, Tom; Hill, Douglas.

1996-01-01

A need to make substantial future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would require major changes in national energy systems. Nine industrialized countries have explored the technical boundaries of CO 2 emission restrictions during the next 40 to 50 years using comparable scenario assumptions and a standard model, MARKAL. Quantitative results for the countries are shown side by side in a set of energy maps that compare the least-cost evolution of the national energy systems by the main factors that contribute to CO 2 emissions. The ability to restrict future CO 2 emissions and the most cost-effective measures for doing so differ among the countries; an international agreement that would mandate substantial emission restrictions among countries by an equal percentage reduction is clearly impossible. The results are a first step toward a basis for allocating such international reductions, and the multinational process by which they were produced provides an example for further international greenhouse gas abatement costing studies. (Author)

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammitt, J.K; Camm, Frank; Mooz, W.E.; Wolf, K.A.; Bamezai, Anil; Connel, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

1990-01-01

Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. (author). 22 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

Present and future emissions of HAPs from crematories in China

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Yifeng; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Xiong, Chengcheng; Pan, Tao; Nie, Lei; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Jing; Wang, Wei; Gao, Jiajia; Zhu, Chuanyong; Wang, Kun

2016-01-01

China is the most populous country in the world. The amount of death population has reached 9.65 million and 49.5% of human corpses are cremated by about 1700 crematories spread throughout the country in 2012, leading to considerable discharge of various hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) into the atmosphere and great concerns on regional air quality and health risks for surrounding residents. By using the practicable or best available emission factors, for the first time, a multiple-year emission inventory of typical hazardous air pollutants discharged from crematories in the Chinese mainland, has been established for the historical period of 1990-2012, and the future trends of HAPs emissions until 2030 are forecasted based on three scenarios analysis. Our results show that the total emissions have gradually increased to 906 t of NOX, 443 t of SO2, 2713 t of CO, 477.7 t of PM, 377 t of HCl, 36 t of H2S, 25 t of NH3, 62 t of NMVOCs, 592 kg of Hg, 48 kg of Pb, 14 kg of Cd, 53 kg of As, 40 kg of Cr, 37 kg of Cu, 51 kg of Ni, and 96 g of PCDD/Fs as TEQ (toxic equivalent quantity) by the year 2012. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, various HAPs emitted from cremators would continuously increase with an average growth rate of 3% till to 2030; whereas the emissions will peak at around 2015 and then decline gradually with varied speed under the two improved control scenarios. To mitigate the associated air pollution and health risks caused by crematories, it is of great necessary for implementing more strict emission standards, applying combustion optimization and requiring installation of best available flue gas purification system, as well as powerful supervision for sound operation of crematories.

Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K.; Matthews, D.

2010-12-01

If current greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations remain constant, the world would be committed to several centuries of increasing global mean temperatures and sea level rise. By contrast, near elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions would be required to produce diminishing GHG concentrations consistent with stabilization of mean temperatures. Yet long-lived energy and transportation infrastructure now operating can be expected to contribute substantial CO2 emissions over the next 50 years. Barring widespread retrofitting of existing power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies or the early decommissioning of serviceable infrastructure, these “committed emissions” represent infrastructural inertia which may be the primary contributor to total future warming commitment. With respect to GHG emissions, infrastructural inertia may be thought of as having two important and overlapping components: (i) infrastructure that directly releases GHGs to the atmosphere, and (ii) infrastructure that contributes to the continued production of devices that emit GHGs to the atmosphere. For example, the interstate highway and refueling infrastructure in the United States facilitates continued production of gasoline-powered automobiles. Here, we focus only on the warming commitment from infrastructure that directly releases CO2 to the atmosphere. Essentially, we answer the question: What if no additional CO2-emitting devices (e.g., power plants, motor vehicles) were built, but all the existing CO2-emitting devices were allowed to live out their normal lifetimes? What CO2 levels and global mean temperatures would we attain? Of course, the actual lifetime of devices may be strongly influenced by economic and policy constraints. For instance, a ban on new CO2-emitting devices would create tremendous incentive to prolong the lifetime of existing devices. Thus, our scenarios are not realistic, but offer a means of gauging the threat of climate change from existing

Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. F. Lam

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone, the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction, except for the Northeast area, where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10 % or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8 over the Eastern United States. For PM_2.5, the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect, where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM_2.5 reductions. The annual average 24-h PM_2.5 of the future-year condition was found to be about 40 % lower than the one from the present-year condition, of which 60 % of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO₄ and NO₃ particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5–10 % or 3–5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely, it reduces the annual average PM_2.5 by 5 % or 1.0 μg m⁻³ in the Southeast region.

The future of emissions trading in light of the acid rain experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLean, B.J.; Rico, R.

1995-01-01

The idea of emissions trading was developed more than two decades ago by environmental economists eager to provide new ideas for how to improve the efficiency of environmental protection. However, early emissions trading efforts were built on the historical open-quotes command and controlclose quotes infrastructure which has dominated U.S. environmental protection until today. The open-quotes command and controlclose quotes model initially had advantages that were of a very pragmatic character: it assured large pollution reductions in a time when large, cheap reductions were available and necessary; and it did not require a sophisticated government infrastructure. Within the last five years, large-scale emission trading programs have been successfully designed and started that are fundamentally different from the earlier efforts, creating a new paradigm for environmental control just when our understanding of environmental problems is changing as well. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the largest national-scale program--the Acid Rain Program--and from that experience, forecast when emission trading programs may be headed based on our understanding of the factors currently influencing environmental management. The first section of this paper will briefly review the history of emissions trading programs, followed by a summary of the features of the Acid Rain Program, highlighting those features that distinguish it from previous efforts. The last section addresses the opportunities for emissions trading (and its probable future directions)

Past and future cadmium emissions from municipal solid-waste incinerators in Japan for the assessment of cadmium control policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ono, Kyoko

2013-11-15

Cadmium (Cd) is a harmful pollutant emitted from municipal solid-waste incinerators (MSWIs). Cd stack emissions from MSWIs have been estimated between 1970 and 2030 in Japan. The aims of this study are to quantify emitted Cd by category and to analyze Cd control policies to reduce emissions. Emissions were estimated using a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) that took into account representative waste treatment flows and historical changes in emission factors. This work revealed that the emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1t) and were ten times those in 2010 (1.2 t). Emission from MSWIs was two-thirds of that from non-ferrous smelting in 2010. The main Cd emission source was pigment use in the 1970s, but after 2000 it had shifted to nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) batteries. Future emissions were estimated for 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, an intensive collection of used Ni-Cd batteries and a ban on any future use of Ni-Cd batteries will reduce emissions by 0.09 and 0.3 1t, respectively, in 2030. This approach enables us to identify the major Cd emission source from MSWIs, and to prioritize the possible Cd control policies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Direct estimation of diffuse gaseous emissions from coal fires: current methods and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Engle, Mark A.; Olea, Ricardo A.; O'Keefe, Jennifer M. K.; Hower, James C.; Geboy, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Coal fires occur in nature spontaneously, contribute to increases in greenhouse gases, and emit atmospheric toxicants. Increasing interest in quantifying coal fire emissions has resulted in the adaptation and development of specialized approaches and adoption of numerical modeling techniques. Overview of these methods for direct estimation of diffuse gas emissions from coal fires is presented in this paper. Here we take advantage of stochastic Gaussian simulation to interpolate CO2 fluxes measured using a dynamic closed chamber at the Ruth Mullins coal fire in Perry County, Kentucky. This approach allows for preparing a map of diffuse gas emissions, one of the two primary ways that gases emanate from coal fires, and establishing the reliability of the study both locally and for the entire fire. Future research directions include continuous and automated sampling to improve quantification of gaseous coal fire emissions.

Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

2013-10-01

Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

2010-01-01

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

Natural emissions under future climate condition and their effects on surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Min; Shu, Lei; Wang, Ti-jian; Liu, Qian; Gao, Da; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bing-liang; Han, Yong; Li, Meng-meng; Chen, Pu-long

2017-02-01

The natural emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) are sensitive to climate. Future climate change can impact O3 concentrations by perturbing these emissions. To better estimate the variation of natural emissions under different climate conditions and understand its effect on surface O3, we model the present and the future air quality over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by running different simulations with the aid of the WRF-CALGRID model system that contains a natural emission module. Firstly, we estimate the natural emissions at present and in IPCC A1B scenario. The results show that biogenic VOC emission and soil NOx emission over YRD in 2008 is 657 Gg C and 19.1 Gg N, respectively. According to climate change, these emissions in 2050 will increase by 25.5% and 11.5%, respectively. Secondly, the effects of future natural emissions and meteorology on surface O3 are investigated and compared. It is found that the variations in meteorological fields can significantly alter the spatial distribution of O3 over YRD, with the increases of 5-15 ppb in the north and the decreases of -5 to -15 ppb in the south. However, only approximately 20% of the surface O3 increases caused by climate change can be attributed to the natural emissions, with the highest increment up to 2.4 ppb. Finally, Ra (the ratio of impacts from NOx and VOCs on O3 formation) and H2O2/HNO3 (the ratio between the concentrations of H2O2 and HNO3) are applied to study the O3 sensitivity in YRD. The results show that the transition value of H2O2/HNO3 will turn from 0.3 to 0.5 in 2008 to 0.4-0.8 in 2050. O3 formation in the YRD region will be insensitive to VOCs under future climate condition, implying more NOx need to be cut down. Our findings can help us understand O3 variation trend and put forward the reasonable and effective pollution control policies in these famous polluted areas.

Radiative forcing from particle emissions by future supersonic aircraft

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Pitari

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In this work we focus on the direct radiative forcing (RF of black carbon (BC and sulphuric acid particles emitted by future supersonic aircraft, as well as on the ozone RF due to changes produced by emissions of both gas species (NO_x, H₂O and aerosol particles capable of affecting stratospheric ozone chemistry. Heterogeneous chemical reactions on the surface of sulphuric acid stratospheric particles (SSA-SAD are the main link between ozone chemistry and supersonic aircraft emissions of sulphur precursors (SO₂ and particles (H₂O–H₂SO₄. Photochemical O₃ changes are compared from four independent 3-D atmosphere-chemistry models (ACMs, using as input the perturbation of SSA-SAD calculated in the University of L'Aquila model, which includes on-line a microphysics code for aerosol formation and growth. The ACMs in this study use aircraft emission scenarios for the year 2050 developed by AIRBUS as a part of the EU project SCENIC, assessing options for fleet size, engine technology (NO_x emission index, Mach number, range and cruising altitude. From our baseline modeling simulation, the impact of supersonic aircraft on sulphuric acid aerosol and BC mass burdens is 53 and 1.5 μg/m², respectively, with a direct RF of −11.4 and 4.6 mW/m² (net RF=−6.8 mW/m². This paper discusses the similarities and differences amongst the participating models in terms of changes to O₃ precursors due to aircraft emissions (NO_x, HO_x,Cl_x,Br_x and the stratospheric ozone sensitivity to them. In the baseline case, the calculated global ozone change is −0.4 ±0.3 DU, with a net radiative forcing (IR+UV of −2.5± 2 mW/m². The fraction of this O₃-RF attributable to SSA-SAD changes is, however, highly variable among the models, depending on the NO_x removal

A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

2016-12-01

understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

Emission concepts for future passenger car diesel engines; Emissionskonzepte fuer zukuenftige Pkw-Dieselmotoren

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krueger, M.; Wiartalla, A.; Lichtenberg, T.; Koerfer, T. [FEV Motorentechnik, Aachen (Germany)

2003-07-01

In order to keep the current success of the Diesel powered passenger cars also for the future, intensive development effort is absolutely necessary in the near future. A special challenge is presented by the already confirmed or discussed future emission standards. However, every chance must be taken to keep the fuel consumption of the diesel engine respectively diesel powered vehicle on the lowest possible level. In front of this background measures concerning combustion system development as well as exhaust gas aftertreatment are analyzed in this report with respect to their influence on emission reduction and fuel consumption. It can be summarized, that still a significant emission reduction potential exists for the passenger car diesel engine. However, fulfilling the next step of emission legislation, getting effective after 2005, only by combustion system improvement, seems to be a difficult way to go from todays point of view. Especially with respect to fuel consumption, an efficient combination of combustion improvement and exhaust gas aftertreatment represents a more promising solution for the future. Most important for a successful realisation of such an approach will be the overall power consumption of the exhaust gas aftertreatment device. This does also include the thermomanagement of the engine and exhaust gas system as well as the energy losses due to the regeneration demands of the discontinuously working NO{sub x}-and particulate trap. Considering this last issue, a fuel additive as particulate trap regeneration aid as well as the fuel sulphur content respectively the sulphur sensitivity of the NO{sub x}-trap will play a significant role in the future. (orig.) [German] Um den Erfolg des Diesel-Pkw's auch zukuenftig sicherzustellen, sind intensive Entwicklungsarbeiten notwendig. Eine besondere Herausforderung stellen die zukuenftig zu erfuellenden Emissionsanforderungen dar. Dabei muessen alle moeglichen Massnahmen ergriffen werden, um den

Estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions of the world's cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

2015-01-01

This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. - Highlights: • A tool for estimation of energy related emissions for urban areas is developed. • Heating degree days and urbanized area per capita are driving variables for urban energy consumption. • Global transition to EVs can only mitigate transportation emissions if GHG intensity of electricity grid is reduced. • Density decline of urban areas can lead to exponential increase of energy related emissions. • Climate change scenarios can slightly reduce the growth of energy related emissions increase by 2050. - A tool for estimation of global impact of urban systems on energy related emissions was developed that can simulate the impact of future scenarios (climate change, urban design etc)

Effect of Shipping Emissions on Present and Future Atmospheric Composition Over the Barents Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Daskalakis, N.; Raut, J. C.; Law, K.; Marelle, L.; Thomas, J. L.; Onishi, T.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing unprecedented changes as a result of rapid warming and socio-economic drivers. Even though the region is a receptor for anthropogenic pollution from the highly populated mid-latitudes, there are also local sources of pollution, such as shipping, that are already perturbing atmospheric composition. The Barents Sea, located off the northern coasts of Norway and Russia, has year-round shipping traffic and is likely to grow in a warming Arctic because of the economic benefits related to the opening up of the North-East passage placing it in a strategic position for the transport of goods between Europe and Asia. An increase in the marine traffic has already been observed over the past years in this region, resulting in increased emissions of pollutants. In this work, we investigate the impact of the shipping emissions in the Barents Sea on atmospheric composition for the summer period (July/August) with high traffic using the regional chemistry-aerosol transport model WRF-Chem run at high resolution over the region. We quantify the effects of shipping pollution on aerosol concentrations, such as black carbon, sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) as well as deposition of potentially important nutrients (NO3-, SO42-). The model is run using an analytical chemical mechanism for gas phase and aerosols (SAPRC99 coupled with VBS and MOSAIC) for present-day (2012) and future (2050) conditions with ECLIPSE anthropogenic emissions and Winther et al. (2014) shipping emissions. Present-day simulations are evaluated against available data. We examine different future growth scenarios taking into account current and proposed ship operation regulations, such as CLE (current legislation) and HGS (high growth scenario), to investigate possible future changes in surface concentrations, tropospheric burdens and deposition fluxes. Potential chemistry-climate feedbacks are also examined such as those related to aerosol

Common rail technology for future low emission diesel vehicles; Common Rail Technologie fuer zukuenftige Diesel Fahrzeuge mit niedrigen Emissionswerten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schoeppe, D.; Bercher, P.; Guerrassi, N.; Spadafora, P.

2004-07-01

The diesel fuel injection equipment will remain a key element for diesel engine technology evolution. Achieving emission targets at competitive prices has been and will continue to be a major technical challenge to the engine manufacturer. Delphi is continuously developing its common rail system and its components to fulfill future stricter emission legislation while simultaneously improving performance on noise, fuel consumption and power output. This paper will describe the latest developments that delphi introduced into the market in their common rail system to comply with future legislative emission targets. Further, a novel common rail injector will be presented, that uses a revolutionary, direct acting operating principle, where the nozzle is directly operated by a piezo actuator, without the use of a servo-hydraulic flow circuit. The superior performance of this injector concept will be shown, especially in minimum quantity capability as well as multiple injection performance. The direct acting operating principle allows rapid opening and closing of the injector, without compromising pilot quantity capability. The emission benefit obtained by such opening and closing behavior will be shown. Finally, based on the findings discussed, the paper will conclude on key features of future common rail systems. (orig.)

Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

2017-01-01

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

Science.gov (United States)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United

Future emissions and atmospheric fate of HFC-1234yf from mobile air conditioners in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Henne, Stephan; Shallcross, Dudley E; Reimann, Stefan; Xiao, Ping; Brunner, Dominik; O'Doherty, Simon; Buchmann, Brigitte

2012-02-07

HFC-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) is under discussion for replacing HFC-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) as a cooling agent in mobile air conditioners (MACs) in the European vehicle fleet. Some HFC-1234yf will be released into the atmosphere, where it is almost completely transformed to the persistent trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). Future emissions of HFC-1234yf after a complete conversion of the European vehicle fleet were assessed. Taking current day leakage rates and predicted vehicle numbers for the year 2020 into account, European total HFC-1234yf emissions from MACs were predicted to range between 11.0 and 19.2 Gg yr(-1). Resulting TFA deposition rates and rainwater concentrations over Europe were assessed with two Lagrangian chemistry transport models. Mean European summer-time TFA mixing ratios of about 0.15 ppt (high emission scenario) will surpass previously measured levels in background air in Germany and Switzerland by more than a factor of 10. Mean deposition rates (wet + dry) of TFA were estimated to be 0.65-0.76 kg km(-2) yr(-1), with a maxium of ∼2.0 kg km(-2) yr(-1) occurring in Northern Italy. About 30-40% of the European HFC-1234yf emissions were deposited as TFA within Europe, while the remaining fraction was exported toward the Atlantic Ocean, Central Asia, Northern, and Tropical Africa. Largest annual mean TFA concentrations in rainwater were simulated over the Mediterranean and Northern Africa, reaching up to 2500 ng L(-1), while maxima over the continent of about 2000 ng L(-1) occurred in the Czech Republic and Southern Germany. These highest annual mean concentrations are at least 60 times lower than previously determined to be a safe level for the most sensitive aquatic life-forms. Rainwater concentrations during individual rain events would still be 1 order of magnitude lower than the no effect level. To verify these results future occasional sampling of TFA in the atmospheric environment should be considered. If future HFC-1234yf

Biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from the Eurasian taiga: current knowledge and future directions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rinne, J. (Dept. of Physics, Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)); Baeck, J. (Dept. of Forest Ecology, Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)); Hakola, H. (Finnish Meteorological Institute, Air Quality Research, Helsinki (Finland))

2009-07-01

n this paper, the research conducted on the emissions of the biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from the European boreal zone, or taiga, is reviewed. We highlight the main findings and the key gaps in our knowledge. Ecosystem scale BVOC emissions from the Eurasian taiga are observed to be relatively low as compared with those from some forest ecosystems in warmer climates. One of the distinctive features of the Eurasian taiga is the predominance of monoterpene emitting coniferous trees. Recent research indicates that in addition to evaporation from storage structures, part of the monoterpene emission of conifers originates directly from synthesis. Monoterpene emission from boreal deciduous trees originates mainly directly from synthesis. The boreal trees exhibit distinct intra-species variation in the monoterpene mixtures they emit. Important sources of isoprene in the Eurasian taiga include Norway spruce, open wetland ecosystems and some non-dominant woody species, such as European aspen and willows. Many boreal tree species also emit non-terpenoid compounds and highly reactive sesquiterpenes. The future challenges in the research on BVOC emissions from the Eurasian taiga include (i) quantification and understanding the non-terpenoid VOC emissions from the taiga ecosystems, (ii) bringing ecosystems in the eastern Eurasian taiga into the sphere of BVOC emission studies, (iii) establishing long-term ecosystem flux studies combined with plant physiological measurements, and (iv) integrating knowledge and research skills on BVOC synthesis, storages and emissions, land cover changes and atmospheric processes in different spatial and temporal scales in order to better understand the impact of biosphere on atmospheric chemistry and composition in changing climate. (orig.)

Future forecast for life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of LNG and city gas 13A

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okamura, Tomohito; Furukawa, Michinobu; Ishitani, Hisashi

2007-01-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the most up-to-date data available on total greenhouse-gas emissions of a LNG fuel supply chain and life-cycle of city gas 13A based on surveys of the LNG projects delivering to Japan, which should provide useful basic-data for conducting life-cycle analyses of other product systems as well as future alternative energy systems, because of highly reliable data qualified in terms of its source and representativeness. In addition, the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of LNG and city-gas 13A in 2010 were also predicted, taking into account not only the improvement of technologies, but also the change of composition of LNG projects. As a result of this analysis, the total amount of greenhouse-gas emissions of the whole city-gas 13A chain at present was calculated to be 61.91 g-CO 2 /MJ, and the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of LNG and city-gas 13A in 2010 could be expected to decrease by about 1.1% of the current emissions

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ou Xunmin, E-mail: oxm07@mails.tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Xiliang, E-mail: zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Chang Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

2010-08-15

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport. Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ou, Xunmin [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Xiliang; Chang, Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

2010-08-15

The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology. (author)

Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part II: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

2018-07-01

In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the "Technology Driver Model" (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x  = NO + NO 2 ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O 3 ) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NO x compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O 3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM 2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO 2 and O 3 , respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH 4 changes to dominate the increases in O 3 , while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM 2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NO x , and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH 3 , SO 2 , and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong

Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

2017-12-01

Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2018-02-01

Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

Gathering pipeline methane emissions in Fayetteville shale pipelines and scoping guidelines for future pipeline measurement campaigns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel J. Zimmerle

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Gathering pipelines, which transport gas from well pads to downstream processing, are a sector of the natural gas supply chain for which little measured methane emissions data are available. This study performed leak detection and measurement on 96 km of gathering pipeline and the associated 56 pigging facilities and 39 block valves. The study found one underground leak accounting for 83% (4.0 kg CH4/hr of total measured emissions. Methane emissions for the 4684 km of gathering pipeline in the study area were estimated at 402 kg CH4/hr [95 to 1065 kg CH4/hr, 95% CI], or 1% [0.2% to 2.6%] of all methane emissions measured during a prior aircraft study of the same area. Emissions estimated by this study fall within the uncertainty range of emissions estimated using emission factors from EPA’s 2015 Greenhouse Inventory and study activity estimates. While EPA’s current inventory is based upon emission factors from distribution mains measured in the 1990s, this study indicates that using emission factors from more recent distribution studies could significantly underestimate emissions from gathering pipelines. To guide broader studies of pipeline emissions, we also estimate the fraction of the pipeline length within a basin that must be measured to constrain uncertainty of pipeline emissions estimates to within 1% of total basin emissions. The study provides both substantial insight into the mix of emission sources and guidance for future gathering pipeline studies, but since measurements were made in a single basin, the results are not sufficiently representative to provide methane emission factors at the regional or national level.

Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

2012-01-01

In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

2018-01-30

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Automotive catalyst strategies for future emission systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williamson, W.B.; Summers, J.C.; Scaparo, J.A.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that while significant advances in Pt/Rh three-way catalyst (TWC) formulations have been accomplished, the use of Pd-containing catalysts for three-way emission control are of interest for overall noble metal cost reduction, lower Rh usage, and potential durability improvements. Applications of Pd are demonstrated for replacement of Pt in conventional Pt/Rh TWC systems, for use in Pd-only three-way catalysts and for lowering methanol and formaldehyde emissions at close-coupled locations on a methanol-fueled vehicle. The individual contributions of Pt, Pd and Rh for aged three-way performance indicate significant advantages of using Pd over Pt. A comparison of vehicle system control strategies illustrates that higher system temperatures significantly lower HC emissions, while air/fuel control strategies are most critical in lowering NO x emissions

COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS TO PROJECT FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS IN TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CURINANCO, CHILE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor

2005-07-14

Deforestation of temperate rainforests in Chile has decreased the provision of ecosystem services, including watershed protection, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Forest conservation can restore those ecosystem services. Greenhouse gas policies that offer financing for the carbon emissions avoided by preventing deforestation require a projection of future baseline carbon emissions for an area if no forest conservation occurs. For a proposed 570 km{sup 2} conservation area in temperate rainforest around the rural community of Curinanco, Chile, we compared three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions: extrapolation from Landsat observations, Geomod, and Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA). Analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data show 1986-1999 net deforestation of 1900 ha in the analysis area, proceeding at a rate of 0.0003 y{sup -1}. The gross rate of loss of closed natural forest was 0.042 y{sup -1}. In the period 1986-1999, closed natural forest decreased from 20,000 ha to 11,000 ha, with timber companies clearing natural forest to establish plantations of non-native species. Analyses of previous field measurements of species-specific forest biomass, tree allometry, and the carbon content of vegetation show that the dominant native forest type, broadleaf evergreen (bosque siempreverde), contains 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon, compared to the carbon density of non-native Pinus radiata plantations of 240 {+-} 60 t ha{sup -1}. The 1986-1999 conversion of closed broadleaf evergreen forest to open broadleaf evergreen forest, Pinus radiata plantations, shrublands, grasslands, urban areas, and bare ground decreased the carbon density from 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon to an average of 100 t ha{sup -1} (maximum 160 t ha{sup -1}, minimum 50 t ha{sup -1}). Consequently, the conversion released 1.1 million t carbon. These analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data provided the data to

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Hansen

Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

2013-01-01

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille;

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Mark; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J

2018-02-20

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO 2 e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H 2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO 2 e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO 2 /mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO 2e /mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

2018-01-30

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025–2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300–350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25–$1.00/mi depending on timeframe and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60–90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Historical and future land use effects on N2O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

Science.gov (United States)

Reiners, W. A.; Liu, S.; Gerow, K. G.; Keller, M.; Schimel, D. S.

2002-12-01

The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N2O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N2O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well-documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N2O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.

Future changes in biogenic isoprene emissions: how might they affect regional and global atmospheric chemistry?

Science.gov (United States)

Christine Wiedinmyer; Xuexi Tie; Alex Guenther; Ron Neilson; Claire. Granier

2006-01-01

Isoprene is emitted from vegetation to the atmosphere in significant quantities, and it plays an important role in the reactions that control tropospheric oxidant concentrations. As future climatic and land-cover changes occur, the spatial and temporal variations, as well as the magnitude of these biogenic isoprene emissions, are expected to change. This paper presents...

Water and energy link in the cities of the future - achieving net zero carbon and pollution emissions footprint.

Science.gov (United States)

Novotny, V

2011-01-01

This article discusses the link between water conservation, reclamation, reuse and energy use as related to the goal of achieving the net zero carbon emission footprint in future sustainable cities. It defines sustainable ecocities and outlines quantitatively steps towards the reduction of energy use due to water and used water flows, management and limits in linear and closed loop water/stormwater/wastewater management systems. The three phase water energy nexus diagram may have a minimum inflection point beyond which reduction of water demand may not result in a reduction of energy and carbon emissions. Hence, water conservation is the best alternative solution to water shortages and minimizing the carbon footprint. A marginal water/energy chart is developed and proposed to assist planners in developing future ecocities and retrofitting older communities to achieve sustainability.

Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

2013-01-01

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Melissa M. Bilec

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Brazil’s status as a rapidly developing country is visible in its need for more energy, including electricity. While the current electricity generation mix is primarily hydropower based, high-quality dam sites are diminishing and diversification to other sources is likely. We combined life-cycle data for electricity production with scenarios developed using the IAEA’s MESSAGE model to examine environmental impacts of future electricity generation under a baseline case and four side cases, using a Monte-Carlo approach to incorporate uncertainty in power plant performance and LCA impacts. Our results show that, under the cost-optimal base case scenario, Brazil’s GHGs from electricity (excluding hydroelectric reservoir emissions rise 370% by 2040 relative to 2010, with the carbon intensity per MWh rising 100%. This rise would make Brazil’s carbon emissions targets difficult to meet without demand-side programs. Our results show a future electricity mix dominated by environmental tradeoffs in the use of large-scale renewables, questioning the use tropical hydropower and highlighting the need for additional work to assess and include ecosystem and social impacts, where information is currently sparse.

Constructing a sustainable power sector in China: current and future emissions of coal-fired power plants from 2010 to 2030

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, D.; Zhang, Q.

2017-12-01

As the largest energy infrastructure in China, power sector consumed more coal than any other sector and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement target. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants in China during 2010-2030 and the evolution of associated emissions for the same period by using a unit-based emission projection model which integrated the historical power plants information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and the evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by the stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions from China's coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24% respectively during 2010-2015, comparing to 14% increase of coal consumption and 15% increase in CO2 emissions. We estimated that under current national energy development planning, coal consumption and CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will continue to increase until 2030, in which against the China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) targets. Early retirement of old and low-efficient power plants will cumulatively reduce 2.2 Pg CO2 emissions from the baseline scenario during 2016-2030, but still could not curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of "near zero" emission control policy, we projected that emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during the same period under all scenarios, indicating the decoupling trends of air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Although with limited direct emission reduction benefits, increasing operating hours of power plants could avoid 236 GW of new power plants construction, which could indirectly reduce emissions embodied in the construction activity. Our results identified a more sustainable pathway for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce air pollutant emissions, improve the energy efficiency, and slow down the construction of new units. However, continuous

Future vehicle composition structures and CO{sub 2} emissions based on automobile selection model for consumers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chikahisa, T.; Tabe, Y.; Yamauchi, M. [Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan). Graduate School of Engineering, Energy and Environmental Systems Div.

2006-07-01

This paper examined future market growth trends of low emission vehicles for passenger cars in Japan, England and the United States. Reductions in carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions occurring as a result of increased market uptake of low emission vehicles were also analyzed. A consumer model was then calibrated with statistical data from each of the analyzed countries. Transportation demands were simulated using a simple formula which included gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates for the analyzed countries. Results of the analysis showed that England has the highest potential for reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. However, none of the countries analyzed in the simulations met Kyoto protocol requirements for reduced automotive emissions. Market shares of low emission vehicles were similar in Japan and England, and it is anticipated that hybrid cars will reach a substantial share of the market in the next decade. Market growth in fuel cell-powered cars is expected to be slow. While consumer characteristics were similar in Japan and England, American consumers paid more attention to vehicle costs as opposed to maintenance costs. Results also indicated that total vehicle travelling mileage is increasing. Hybrid car purchases are expected to increase significantly in England and Japan, but gasoline-powered vehicles will maintain their market share in the United Sates. 2 refs., 2 tabs., 13 figs.

Historical and future emission of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from gas-fired combustion in Beijing, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Yifeng; Nie, Lei; Zhou, Zhen; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Wu, Xiaoqing; Cheng, Linglong

2017-07-01

The consumption of natural gas in Beijing has increased in the past decade due to energy structure adjustments and air pollution abatement. In this study, an integrated emission inventory of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted from gas-fired combustion in Beijing was developed for the period from 2000 to 2014 using a technology-based approach. Future emission trends were projected through 2030 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. We found that emissions of primary HAPs exhibited an increasing trend with the rapid increase in natural gas consumption. Our estimates indicated that the total emissions of NO X , particulate matter (PM) 10 , PM 2.5 , CO, VOCs, SO 2 , black carbon, Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, and benzo[a]pyrene from gas-fired combustion in Beijing were approximately 22,422 t, 1042 t, 781 t, 19,097 t, 653 t, 82 t, 19 t, 0.6 kg, 0.1 kg, 43 kg, 52 kg, 0.3 kg, 0.03 kg, 4.3 kg, 0.6 kg, 216 μg, and 242 g, respectively, in 2014. To mitigate the associated air pollution and health risks caused by gas-fired combustion, stricter emission standards must be established. Additionally, combustion optimization and flue gas purification system could be used for lowering NO X emissions from gas-fired combustion, and gas-fired facilities should be continuously monitored based on emission limits. Graphical abstract Spatial distribution and typical live photos of gas-fired boiler in Beijing.

Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

2017-12-01

China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb

Current and future nitrous oxide emissions from African agriculture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hickman, J.E.; Havlikova, M.; Kroeze, C.; Palm, C.A.

2011-01-01

Most emission estimates of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) from African agriculture at a continental scale are based on emission factors, such as those developed by the IPCC Guidelines. Here we present estimates from Africa from the EDGAR database, which is derived from the IPCC emission

Strongly lensed neutral hydrogen emission: detection predictions with current and future radio interferometers

Science.gov (United States)

Deane, R. P.; Obreschkow, D.; Heywood, I.

2015-09-01

Strong gravitational lensing provides some of the deepest views of the Universe, enabling studies of high-redshift galaxies only possible with next-generation facilities without the lensing phenomenon. To date, 21-cm radio emission from neutral hydrogen has only been detected directly out to z ˜ 0.2, limited by the sensitivity and instantaneous bandwidth of current radio telescopes. We discuss how current and future radio interferometers such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) will detect lensed H I emission in individual galaxies at high redshift. Our calculations rely on a semi-analytic galaxy simulation with realistic H I discs (by size, density profile and rotation), in a cosmological context, combined with general relativistic ray tracing. Wide-field, blind H I surveys with the SKA are predicted to be efficient at discovering lensed H I systems, increasingly so at z ≳ 2. This will be enabled by the combination of the magnification boosts, the steepness of the H I luminosity function at the high-mass end, and the fact that the H I spectral line is relatively isolated in frequency. These surveys will simultaneously provide a new technique for foreground lens selection and yield the highest redshift H I emission detections. More near term (and existing) cm-wave facilities will push the high-redshift H I envelope through targeted surveys of known lenses.

The relationship between gasoline composition and vehicle hydrocarbon emissions: a review of current studies and future research needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Schuetzle, D; Siegl, W O; Jensen, T E; Dearth, M A; Kaiser, E W; Gorse, R; Kreucher, W; Kulik, E

1994-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to review current studies concerning the relationship of fuel composition to vehicle engine-out and tail-pipe emissions and to outline future research needed in this area. A number of recent combustion experiments and vehicle studies demonstrated that reformulated gasoline can reduce vehicle engine-out, tail-pipe, running-loss, and evaporative emissions. Some of these studies were extended to understand the fundamental relationships between fuel composition and emissions. To further establish these relationships, it was necessary to develop advanced analytical methods for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of hydrocarbons in fuels and vehicle emissions. The development of real-time techniques such as Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, laser diode spectroscopy, and atmospheric pressure ionization mass spectrometry were useful in studying the transient behavior of exhaust emissions under various engine operating conditions. Laboratory studies using specific fuels and fuel blends were carried out using pulse flame combustors, single- and multicylinder engines, and vehicle fleets. Chemometric statistical methods were used to analyze the large volumes of emissions data generated from these studies. Models were developed that were able to accurately predict tail-pipe emissions from fuel chemical and physical compositional data. Some of the primary fuel precursors for benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and C2-C4 alkene emissions are described. These studies demonstrated that there is a strong relationship between gasoline composition and tail-pipe emissions.

Industry in the 5th Environmental Outlook. Background information and final conclusions on the future development of environmental pressure (emissions) due to industrial production in the Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wesselink, L.G.; Elzenga, H.E.; Booij, H.; Peek, K.; Thomas, R.; Duvoort, G.L.; Van Schijndel, M.W.

2001-01-01

The present and future development of environmental pressure (here emissions) due to industrial production in the Netherlands are discussed. Results were - strongly aggregated - also presented in the 5th Environmental Outlook. We studied developments in production levels, energy use and emissions of Dutch industry and the effect of environmental policy measures, in the period 1980-2020. We used monitoring data for the period 1980-1998 en two scenarios (Global Competition and European Coordination) for the subsequent 1998-2020 period. It is concluded, that future CO2 emissions due to industrial production will continue to increase, that emissions of fluorinated (Kyoto) gasses will strongly decrease and that emissions of NOx, SO2, VOS en fine particles will continue to decrease. Yet, current environmental policy is insufficient to meet national Dutch emission targets of NOx, SO2, VOS in 2010

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.; Vimmerstedt, L.

2013-03-01

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation. Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Dunphy, R. T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-15

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Modeling the response of forest isoprene emissions to future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and changes in climate (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Monson, R. K.; Heald, C. L.; Guenther, A. B.; Wilkinson, M.

2009-12-01

Isoprene emissions from plants to the atmosphere are sensitive to changes in temperature, light and atmospheric CO2 concentration in both the short- (seconds-to-minutes) and long-term (hours-to-months). We now understand that the different time constants for these responses are due to controls by different sets of biochemical and physiological processes n leaves. Progress has been made in the past few years toward converting this process-level understanding into quantitative models. In this talk, we consider this progress with special emphasis on the short- and long-term responses to atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. A new biochemically-based model is presented for describing the CO2 responses, and the model is deployed in a global context to predict interactions between the influences of temperature and CO2 on the global isoprene emission rate. The model is based on the theory of enzyme-substrate kinetics, particularly with regard to those reactions that produce puruvate or glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate, the two chloroplastic substrates for isoprene biosynthesis. In the global model, when we accounted for CO2 inhibition of isoprene emission in the long-term response, we observed little impact on present-day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr-1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions predicted from past models which are due to a projected warmer climate, were entirely offset by including the CO2 effects. The isoprene emission response to CO2 was dominated by the long-term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less from the short-term effect. We use this analysis as a framework for grounding future global models of isoprene emission in biochemical and physiological observations.

Future of energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions of Finnish road freight transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liimatainen, H.

2013-05-15

The targets to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions to mitigate climate change are as much applicable to the road freight transport sector as they are to all other sectors of society. The aim of this research is to support the initiatives of the Finnish government for improving the energy efficiency and reducing the CO{sub 2} emissions of road freight transport. This is done by forecasting the future development and giving the policy makers guidance on effective measures for promoting road freight energy efficiency and CO{sub 2} reduction. In the study a new method was introduced for connecting the fuel consumption data and goods transport data gathered from the official Finnish road statistics. This method enabled a detailed analysis of the interrelations between the economy, road freight transport, energy consumption and emissions. This analysis was conducted for the years 1995-2010 and the results were used as background information in the Delphi panel of experts. The experts estimated the development of the Finnish road freight sector to the year 2030. Furthermore, a web-based survey was conducted among Finnish road freight hauliers and shippers in order to explore the attitudes and measures related to the energy efficiency. Expert panel workshops were also organised to identify obstacles for the development of the energy efficiency of road freight transport as well as a wide selection of measures to overcome them. The results indicate that the economic development of different branches has a great effect on the energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions of road freight transport. Reaching the carbon emission target for the year 2030 is possible in the light of the scenarios which were formed based on expert forecasts. However, the target can be achieved with very different development paths, e.g. the structure of the national economy and the volume of transport seem to vary widely in the different scenarios. In the proposed recommendations on the measures

Positron emission tomography now and in the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaalburg, W.

1987-01-01

A survey is given of positron emission tomography used in nuclear medicine. The production of positron emitting radionuclides is discussed. The development of positron detectors is described. The application of positron emission tomography in cardiology, oncology and neurology is treated. The authors conclude that PET is a unique method to examine metabolic processes, although the method is still in its infancy. 7 refs.; 1 table

Compliance of future emission regulations. Solutions made by MTU Friedrichshafen; Erfuellung kuenftiger Abgasemissionsvorschriften. Loesungen der MTU Friedrichshafen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dohle, U. [Tognum AG, Friedrichshafen (Germany); Schneemann, A.; Teetz, C.; Wintruff, I. [MTU Friedrichshafen GmbH, Friedrichshafen (Germany)

2010-07-01

Between 2011 and 2015, permissible levels of exhaust emissions for off-highway engines in Europe and in the USA will again be significantly reduced. Legislation covering the various applications and power ranges is extremely diverse. Engine manufacturers are responsible for developing different emissions-reduction methods for the individual markets in order to provide optimum solutions in areas such as fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. This article describes some of the technical concepts, both current and planned, which MTU Friedrichshafen will employ to align its present engine series with future legislation. Basicconfiguration engines are being toughened to withstand high ignition and injection pressures and further development is ongoing on cooled exhaust gas recirculation, the Miller process and 2-stage turbocharging. SCR technology and particulate filtration are also being introduced in individual cases and new control concepts will be employed to optimize interaction between the various subsystems. In the following, the solutions identified for selected applications are presented and discussed. (orig.)

U.S. Near-Zero Emissions Program: CCS - Clean Coal R&D, FutureGen, & Demonstrations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

K Der, Victor [Department of Energy (United States)

2008-07-15

In this paper a projection of the CO{sub 2} emissions in the United States is shown; the technical challenges in the capture and sequestration of the CO{sub 2}; what is understood by carbon sequestration; the three elements of the capture and CO{sub 2} storage that are: capture, transport, and storage; the FutureGen project; plants of coal combustion with sequestration, and at the end an initiative for the generation with clean coal is presented. [Spanish] En esta ponencia se muestra una proyeccion de las emisiones de CO{sub 2} en los Estados Unidos; los retos tecnicos en la captura y secuestro de CO{sub 2}; que entendemos por secuestro de carbono; los tres elementos de la captura y almacenamiento de CO{sub 2} que son captura, transporte y almacenamiento; el proyecto FutureGen; plantas de combustion de carbon con secuestro, y al final se presenta una iniciativa para la generacion con carbon limpio.

The strictest energy requirements in the world

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauridsen, Erik Hagelskjær; Jensen, Jens Stissing

2013-01-01

50 years of progressively strengthened energy requirements in the Danish building code appear to be a success, as the energy consumption has remained constant despite an increase in the total area in requirement of heating. This article however argues that the building code mechanism is heavily...... influenced by path dependent regime structuration processes, and that the mechanism constitutes a barrier to more radical developments within low energy housing. Few and poorly organized frontrunner activities within low energy housing have accordingly taken place in a Danish context during the past decades....... Finally it is proposed that the current development within the energy system provides opportunities for cultivating an improved transitional awareness and for carrying out experimental activities that may challenge the path dependencies of prevailing regime structuration processes....

Sorghum production under future climate in the Southwestern USA: model projections of yield, greenhouse gas emissions and soil C fluxes

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, B.; Ghimire, R.; Hartman, M. D.; Marsalis, M.

2016-12-01

Large tracts of semi-arid land in the Southwestern USA are relatively less important for food production than the US Corn Belt, and represent a promising area for expansion of biofuel/bioproduct crops. However, high temperatures, low available water and high solar radiation in the SW represent a challenge to suitable feedstock development, and future climate change scenarios predict that portions of the SW will experience increased temperature and temporal shifts in precipitation distribution. Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is a valuable forage crop with promise as a biofuel feedstock, given its high biomass under semi-arid conditions, relatively lower N fertilizer requirements compared to corn, and salinity tolerance. To evaluate the environmental impact of expanded sorghum cultivation under future climate in the SW USA, we used the DayCent model in concert with a suite of downscaled future weather projections to predict biogeochemical consequences (greenhouse gas flux and impacts on soil carbon) of sorghum cultivation in New Mexico. The model showed good correspondence with yield data from field trials including both dryland and irrigated sorghum (measured vs. modeled; r2 = 0.75). Simulation experiments tested the effect of dryland production versus irrigation, low N versus high N inputs and delayed fertilizer application. Nitrogen application timing and irrigation impacted yield and N2O emissions less than N rate and climate. Across N and irrigation treatments, future climate simulations resulted in 6% increased yield and 20% lower N2O emissions compared to current climate. Soil C pools declined under future climate. The greatest declines in soil C were from low N input sorghum simulations, regardless of irrigation (>20% declines in SOM in both cases), and requires further evaluation to determine if changing future climate is driving these declines, or if they are a function of prolonged sorghum-fallow rotations in the model. The relatively small gain in yield for

The Kyoto Protocol Emissions Trading Mechanisms - A Model for financing future nuclear development in Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purica, Ionut; John Saroudis

2001-01-01

At the beginning of 2001 Romania ratified the Kyoto Protocol (Law 3/2001) thus becoming the first European country to do so. The mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol are now opening new ways to sponsor the financing of nuclear projects. In May 2001 Societatea Nationala Nuclearoelectrica S.S. (SNN) and Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and ANSALDO of Italy signed a contract to complete the second CANDU unit at Cernavoda thus giving a new momentum to the nuclear program in Romania. The Government of Romania has indicated its desire to proceed with the completion of the other units on the Cernavoda site and is open to explore every potential financing mechanism to make this a reality. Although the Kyoto Protocol was not ratified by those countries that have the greatest need to reduce emissions, a market for emissions trading has developed, Canada being one of the important players in this market. Since the emission reduction per dollar invested in the Romanian nuclear program would bring much more reduction than the marginal reduction per dollar invested in environmental protection programs in Canada, where the saturation effect is already taking place, we consider that the application of the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms represents a realistic source for a sustainable cooperation of the two countries. This trend is in line with the latest activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This paper analyzes the impact that the use of emissions credits would have on a typical financing scheme for a future CANDU project in Romania given the present situation and also proposes a model for the structure of the emissions trade that would generate a source of funding for the project. The conclusion is that there is real potential in using Kyoto Protocol mechanisms for financing nuclear development with benefits for both Romania and Canada. (authors)

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emission and energy use of bioethanol produced from corn stover in China: Current perspectives and future prospectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin; Chang, Shiyan

2016-01-01

In this study, a life cycle analysis (LCA) of bioethanol production from corn stover is carried out under Chinese context. Three scenarios were developed and assessed based on current and future technology levels of the ethanol conversion process. Well-to-pump (WTP) and well-to-wheels (WTW) results are presented in this paper via functional units of 1 MJ of ethanol produced, 1 MJ of E100 produced and used, and 1 km of distance driven by a light-duty vehicle on E10 fuel, respectively. It was calculated that for 1 MJ of E100, the WTW Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction relative to gasoline reaches 52%–55%, and the savings of fossil fuel and petroleum fuel reach 72%–76% and 74%–85%, respectively. For 1 MJ of ethanol produced, GHG emissions occurred in ethanol conversion process account for 51%–55%, and the contribution of chemical inputs reaches 36%–37% of the total life cycle GHG emissions. Furthermore, the life cycle results were found to be highly sensitive to allocation methods. - Highlights: • The study is focused on 2 G bioethanol derived from corn stover in Chinese context. • LCA is based on both current and future technology levels for ethanol conversion. • The life cycle GHG emission reduction of E100 relative to gasoline reaches 52%–55%. • Contributions of chemicals account for 36%–37% of life cycle GHG emissions. • E100 saves 74%–85% of petroleum fuel during its life cycle production and use.

Water management in cities of the future using emission control strategies for priority hazardous substances

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksson, Eva; Revitt, D. M.; Ledin, A.

2011-01-01

Cities of the future face challenges with respect to the quantity and quality of water resources, and multiple managerial options need to be considered in order to safeguard urban surface water quality. In a recently completed project on “Source Control Options for Reducing Emissions of Priority...... in the results. The selected PPs differ in their uses and environmental fate and therefore accumulate in different urban environmental compartment. To achieve the required reduction in PP levels in urban waters the full implementation of existing EU regulation is essential and appropriate combinations...

Simulation of secondary emission calorimeter for future colliders

Science.gov (United States)

Yetkin, E. A.; Yetkin, T.; Ozok, F.; Iren, E.; Erduran, M. N.

2018-03-01

We present updated results from a simulation study of a conceptual sampling electromagnetic calorimeter based on secondary electron emission process. We implemented the secondary electron emission process in Geant4 as a user physics list and produced the energy spectrum and yield of secondary electrons. The energy resolution of the SEE calorimeter was σ/E = (41%) GeV1/2/√E and the response linearity to electromagnetic showers was to within 1.5%. The simulation results were also compared with a traditional scintillator calorimeter.

Global Emissions of Nitrous Oxide: Key Source Sectors, their Future Activities and Technical Opportunities for Emission Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Winiwarter, W.; Höglund-Isaksson, L.; Klimont, Z.; Schöpp, W.; Amann, M.

2017-12-01

Nitrous oxide originates primarily from natural biogeochemical processes, but its atmospheric concentrations have been strongly affected by human activities. According to IPCC, it is the third largest contributor to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (after carbon dioxide and methane). Deep decarbonization scenarios, which are able to constrain global temperature increase within 1.5°C, require strategies to cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions on top of phasing out carbon dioxide emissions. Employing the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model, we have estimated global emissions of nitrous oxide until 2050. Using explicitly defined emission reduction technologies we demonstrate that, by 2030, about 26% ± 9% of the emissions can be avoided assuming full implementation of currently existing reduction technologies. Nearly a quarter of this mitigation can be achieved at marginal costs lower than 10 Euro/t CO2-eq with the chemical industry sector offering important reductions. Overall, the largest emitter of nitrous oxide, agriculture, also provides the largest emission abatement potentials. Emission reduction may be achieved by precision farming methods (variable rate technology) as well as by agrochemistry (nitrification inhibitors). Regionally, the largest emission reductions are achievable where intensive agriculture and industry are prevalent (production and application of mineral fertilizers): Centrally Planned Asia including China, North and Latin America, and South Asia including India. Further deep cuts in nitrous oxide emissions will require extending reduction efforts beyond strictly technological solutions, i.e., considering behavioral changes, including widespread adoption of "healthy diets" minimizing excess protein consumption.

From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

2011-01-01

Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

2017-04-01

In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

After the Hague, Bonn and Marrakech: uncertainties on the future international market of emission permits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitous, A.; Criqui, P.; Blanchard, O.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this article is to present an economic assessment, step by step, of the successive developments of the negotiation on weather changes since the Kyoto protocol in 1997 until the agreement achieved in Marrakech during the seventh Conference of the Parties (COP 7) in November 2001. The analysis covers the international market of emission rights, a key mechanism of the Protocol, the purpose of which is to facilitate the Parties' compliance with their undertakings, by introducing flexibility to improve the economic efficiency of emission reduction. However, it now appears that despite the Marrakech agreement in November 2001, the system is weakened by the withdrawal of the USA decided by President G.W. Bush in March 2001, following COP 6 in The Hague, and by a potential excess of permits due to the economic recession of transition countries since the early nineties (hot air). As things stands, the establishment of the market between the countries taking part in the process will undoubtedly require some management of this hot air between transition countries (Eastern Europe and Ex USSR) and the other Parties of appendix B still involved in the process. The uncertainties weighing on the future market of emission permits strengthen the strategic significance of the implementation of effective reduction policies within those regions and particularly within Europe. (authors)

On-road vehicle emission control in Beijing: past, present, and future.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Ye; Wang, Renjie; Zhou, Yu; Lin, Bohong; Fu, Lixin; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming

2011-01-01

Beijing, the capital of China, has experienced rapid motorization since 1990; a trend that is likely to continue. The growth in vehicles and the corresponding emissions create challenges to improving the urban air quality. In an effort to reduce the impact of vehicle emissions on urban air quality, Beijing has adopted a number of vehicle emission control strategies and policies since the mid 1990 s. These are classified into seven categories: (1) emission control on new vehicles; (2) emission control on in-use vehicles; (3) fuel quality improvements; (4) alternative-fuel and advanced vehicles; (5) economic policies; (6) public transport; and (7) temporal traffic control measures. Many have proven to be successful, such as the Euro emission standards, unleaded gasoline and low sulfur fuel, temporal traffic control measures during the Beijing Olympic Games, etc. Some, however, have been failures, such as the gasoline-to-LPG taxi retrofit program. Thanks to the emission standards for new vehicles as well as other controls, the fleet-average emission rates of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) by each major vehicle category are decreasing over time. For example, gasoline cars decreased fleet-average emission factors by 12.5% for CO, 10.0% for HC, 5.8% for NO(X), and 13.0% for PM(10) annually since 1995, and such a trend is likely to continue. Total emissions for Beijing's vehicle fleet increased from 1995 to 1998. However, they show a clear and steady decrease between 1999 and 2009. In 2009, total emissions of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) were 845,000 t, 121,000 t, 84,000 t, and 3700 t, respectively; with reductions of 47%, 49%, 47%, and 42%, relative to 1998. Beijing has been considered a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, similar to the role of California to the U.S. The continued rapid growth of vehicles, however, is challenging Beijing's policy-makers.

The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Velders, Guus J M; Fahey, David W; Daniel, John S; McFarland, Mack; Andersen, Stephen O

2009-07-07

The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

Climate/chemistry feedbacks and biogenic emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Pyle, John A; Warwick, Nicola; Yang, Xin; Young, Paul J; Zeng, Guang

2007-07-15

The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere is affected by anthropogenic emissions and is projected to change in the future. Model calculations indicate that the change in surface ozone at some locations could be large and have significant implications for human health. The calculations depend on the precise scenarios used for the anthropogenic emissions and on the details of the feedback processes included in the model. One important factor is how natural biogenic emissions will change in the future. We carry out a sensitivity calculation to address the possible increase in isoprene emissions consequent on increased surface temperature in a future climate. The changes in ozone are significant but depend crucially on the background chemical regime. In these calculations, we find that increased isoprene will increase ozone in the Northern Hemisphere but decrease ozone in the tropics. We also consider the role of bromine compounds in tropospheric chemistry and consider cases where, in a future climate, the impact of bromine could change.

Study of methane hydrate as a future energy resource: low emission extraction and power generation

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, L.; Yamada, H.; Kanda, Y.; Sasaki, H.; Okajima, J.; Iga, Y.; Komiya, A.; Maruyama, S.

2016-08-01

With the fast increase of world energy consumption in recent years, new and sustainable energy sources are becoming more and more important. Methane Hydrate is one promising candidate for the future energy supply of humankind, due to its vast existence in permafrost regions and near-coast seabed. This study is focused on the effective low emission utilization of methane hydrate from deep seabed. The Nankai Trough of Japan is taken as the target region in this study for methane hydrate extraction and utilization system design. Low emission system and power generation system with CCS (Carbon Capture and Sequestration) processes are proposed and analyzed for production rate and electricity generation efficiency problem study. It is found that the gas production price can reach the current domestic natural gas supply price level if the production rate can be improved. The optimized system is estimated to have power efficiency about 35%. In addition, current development and analysis from micro-to-macro scale methane hydrate production and dissociation dynamics are also discussed into detail in this study.

Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia; Campbell, Grant; Bows-Larkin, Alice

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

McLeod, Jeffrey

The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dalton, Michael; O'Neill, Brian; Prskawetz, Alexia; Jiang Leiwen; Pitkin, John

2008-01-01

Changes in the age composition of U.S. households over the next several decades could affect energy use and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, the most important greenhouse gas. This article incorporates population age structure into an energy-economic growth model with multiple dynasties of heterogeneous households. The model is used to estimate and compare effects of population aging and technical change on baseline paths of U.S. energy use, and CO 2 emissions. Results show that population aging reduces long-term emissions, by almost 40% in a low population scenario, and effects of aging on emissions can be as large, or larger than, effects of technical change in some cases. These results are derived under standard assumptions and functional forms that are used in economic growth models. The model also assumes a closed economy, substitution elasticities that are fixed, and identical across age groups, and patterns of labor supply that vary by age group, but are fixed over time

Marine nitrous oxide emissions: An unknown liability for the international water sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Short, Michael D.; Peters, Gregory M.; Peirson, William L.; Ashbolt, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • IPCC methodology for indirect marine nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions does not exist. • The water sector has an unknown N 2 O emissions liability from marine sewage disposal. • We model global sewage-nitrogen (N) emissions to coastal oceans during 1970–2050. • Emission factors for marine N 2 O will enable water sector N 2 O emissions accounting. • Industry benefits will include future revenue streams and better N emissions policy. -- Abstract: Reliable estimates of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential for setting effective climate policy at both the sector and national level. Current IPCC Guidelines for calculating nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from sewage management are both highly uncertain and incomplete; a major methodological gap relates to the calculation of indirect N 2 O emissions from sewage disposed to marine environments. Here we apply a novel approach to estimate past and future global sewage-nitrogen emissions to coastal oceans and the potential marine N 2 O emissions linked to this nitrogen source. Then, by estimating the future cost associated with this largely uncharacterized emission source, we demonstrate the industry significance of developing a methodology for estimating N 2 O emissions from marine receiving environments. The capacity to accurately estimate, monitor and report GHG emissions has important consequences for informing future policy decisions regarding both mitigation and adaptation. A robust N 2 O emissions estimation methodology for sewage-nitrogen disposed to coastal oceans will allow the international water sector to more accurately and comprehensively inventory its N 2 O emissions. This will in turn allow for proper accounting of related future emissions liabilities while also enabling the sector to capitalize on any future economic returns linked to this source – providing much-needed capital to support the sector's future infrastructure and climate change adaptation challenges

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Impact of future nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions on the stratospheric ozone layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stolarski, Richard S; Waugh, Darryn W; Douglass, Anne R; Oman, Luke D

2015-01-01

The atmospheric levels of human-produced chlorocarbons and bromocarbons are projected to make only small contributions to ozone depletion by 2100. Increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) will become increasingly important in determining the future of the ozone layer. N 2 O increases lead to increased production of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), contributing to ozone depletion. CO 2 increases cool the stratosphere and affect ozone levels in several ways. Cooling decreases the rate of many photochemical reactions, thus slowing ozone loss rates. Cooling also increases the chemical destruction of nitrogen oxides, thereby moderating the effect of increased N 2 O on ozone depletion. The stratospheric ozone level projected for the end of this century therefore depends on future emissions of both CO 2 and N 2 O. We use a two-dimensional chemical transport model to explore a wide range of values for the boundary conditions for CO 2 and N 2 O, and find that all of the current scenarios for growth of greenhouse gases project the global average ozone to be larger in 2100 than in 1960. (letter)

Useful application of future exhaust aftertreatment technologies, derived from over 30 years experience with eco-friendly vehicles; Sinnvoller Einsatz kuenftiger Abgasreinigungstechnologien, abgeleitet aus ueber 30 Jahren Erfahrung mit umweltfreundlichen Fahrzeugen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Enderle, C. [DaimlerChrysler AG, Mercedes-Benz Technology Center, Stuttgart (Germany)

2006-07-01

The article reviews the development of emissions reduction in gasoline and diesel engines. Along with the historical developments and the factors driving them, it describes the most important characteristics and Mercedes-Benz's most important requirements for feasible post-treatment of exhaust gases. Adoption of the three-way catalytic converter has made the gasoline engine into a clean powerplant which easily meets even the strictest emission standards anywhere in the world. The next development goals for the gasoline engine are described as keeping emissions low while increasing fuel economy. One of the key technologies for achieving this is the NO{sub x} storage catalytic converter. In diesels, adoption of the diesel particle filter means that the conflict between particle reduction and nitrogen oxide reduction is receding into the background. But two new conflicts are emerging with the tightening of nitrous oxide limits and engine redesign measures to reduce NO{sub x}: hydrocarbons versus nitrogen oxide, and consumption versus nitrogen oxide. In addition to good drivability, the economy of the diesel engine is an important reason for its market success. Thus it is important for Mercedes- Benz to choose a NO{sub x} post-treatment that incurs the fewest possible consumption disadvantages and yet has the highest possible efficiency, so that engine-design solutions for reducing NO{sub x} can be restricted to measures that are consumption-neutral. Both the NO{sub x} storage catalytic converter and the SCR (Selective Catalytic Reduction) system will be described. The system that best meets overall requirements is the SCR-urea process. (orig.)

Current applications and future developments of positron emission tomography in head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lonneux, M.

2005-01-01

Positron emission tomography (PET-scan) is a well-established imaging modality in oncology. Using FDG, PET has also a wide range of applications in head and neck tumors for diagnosis, staging, monitoring of response to therapy, and detection of relapse. After a short technical introduction, the current indications of PET-FDG in head and neck tumors are reviewed. Present and future developments of PET are twofold: the use of new tracers for protein synthesis, cellular proliferation or detection of hypoxia etc., and the introduction of metabolic imaging as a adjunct to CT and MRI to determine target-volumes in radiation treatment planning. However, it has to be emphasized that a thorough clinical validation of the methods used is mandatory before their implementation in routine practice. (author)

Emission potentials of future diesel fuel injection systems; Emissionspotentiale zukuenftiger Diesel-Einspritzsysteme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schommers, J.; Breitbach, H.; Stotz, M.; Schnabel, M. [DaimlerChrysler AG (Germany)

2007-07-01

The historical evolution of the diesel engine correlates strongly with fuel injection system developments. Mercedes-Benz contributed significantly to the recent success of the diesel engine, being one of the first car manufacturers to introduce a modern common rail diesel engine in the Mercedes C220 CDI in 1997. The excellent characteristics of modern diesel engines resulted in a 50% market share in newly registered cars in Germany. These characteristics have to be further improved in the next years to keep the diesel engine attractive. Emissions and at the same time fuel consumption and noise need to be further reduced, while engine power has to go up. For Mercedes-Benz key steps to reach these goals are lower compression ratio, higher boost pressures, higher exhaust gas recirculation rates and better EGR cooling, multiple injection patterns and components with stable application parameters over lifetime. Important requirements for future fuel injection systems are high spray momentum, good stability over lifetime, good robustness of injected quantities for varying injection patterns and a low shot-to-shot variation of injected quantities. The high spray momentum has to be achieved especially for small injections and for part load operating points with low pressures. Therefore, the needle opening and closing velocities are of special importance. With special focus on the above requirements, different injector concepts were hydraulically evaluated. Both concepts in serial production and under development from system suppliers, as well as Mercedes-Benz developed prototype injector concepts were chosen. The concepts analysed are a servo-hydraulically driven injector with control piston, two servo-hydraulically driven injectors without control piston with differently adjusted hydraulics, and a direct driven injector, where the needle is driven directly from an actuator without servo-hydraulic amplification. The hydraulic investigations show an excellent performance of

Water management in cities of the future using emission control strategies for priority hazardous substances.

Science.gov (United States)

Eriksson, E; Revitt, D M; Ledin, A; Lundy, L; Holten Lützhøft, H C; Wickman, T; Mikkelsen, P S

2011-01-01

Cities of the future face challenges with respect to the quantity and quality of water resources, and multiple managerial options need to be considered in order to safeguard urban surface water quality. In a recently completed project on 'Source control options for reducing emissions of Priority Pollutants' (ScorePP), seven emission control strategies (ECSs) were developed and tested within a semi-hypothetical case city (SHCC) to evaluate their potential to reduce the emission of selected European priority hazardous substances (PHSs) to surface waters. The ECSs included (1) business-as-usual, (2) full implementation of relevant European (EU) directives, (3) ECS2 in combination with voluntary options for household, municipalities and industry, (4) ECS2 combined with industrial treatment and best available technologies (BAT), (5) ECS2 in combination with stormwater and combined sewer overflow treatment, (6) ECS2 in combination with advanced wastewater treatment, and (7) combinations of ECS3-6. The SHCC approach was chosen to facilitate transparency, to allow compensating for data gaps and to decrease the level of uncertainty in the results. The selected PHSs: cadmium (Cd), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), nonylphenol (NP) and pentabromodiphenyl ether (PBDE) differ in their uses and environmental fate and therefore accumulate in surface waters to differing extents in response to the application of alternative ECS. To achieve the required reduction in PHS levels in urban waters the full implementation of existing EU regulation is prioritised and feasible combinations of managerial and technological options (source control and treatment) can be highly relevant for mitigating releases.

The impacts of future climate change and sulphur emission reductions on acidification recovery at Plastic Lake, Ontario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Aherne

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Climate-induced drought events have a significant influence on sulphate export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying the recovery of surface waters from acidification. In the current study, a model chain that employed a statistical downscaling model, a hydrological model and two hydrochemical models was used to forecast the chemical recovery of Plastic Lake sub-catchment 1 (PC1 from acidification under proposed deposition reductions and the A2 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Any predicted recovery in stream acid neutralising capacity and pH owing to deposition reductions were clearly offset by large acid effluxes from climate-induced drought events. By 2100, ANC is predicted to show large variations ranging between 10 and −30 μmol_c L⁻¹. Similarly, predicted pH in 2100 is lower (>0.05 of a pH unit than the value simulated for 2000 (pH 4.35. Despite emission reductions, the future scenario paints a bleak picture of reacidification at PC1 to levels commensurate with those of the late 1970s. The principal process behind this reacidification is the oxidation of previously stored (reduced sulphur compounds in wetlands during periods of low-flow (or drought, with subsequent efflux of sulphate upon re-wetting. Simulated catchment runoff under the A2 emissions scenario predictes increased intensity and frequency of low-flow events from approximately 2030 onwards. The Integrated Catchments model for Carbon indicated that stream DOC concentrations at PC1 will also increase under the future climate scenario, with temperature being the principal driver. Despite the predicted (significant increase in DOC, pH is not predicted to further decline (beyond the climate-induced oxidation scenario, instead pH shows greater variability throughout the simulation. As echoed by many recent studies, hydrochemical models and model frameworks need to incorporate the drivers

Trend and future of diesel engine: Development of high efficiency and low emission low temperature combustion diesel engine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ho, R J; Yusoff, M Z; Palanisamy, K

2013-01-01

Stringent emission policy has put automotive research and development on developing high efficiency and low pollutant power train. Conventional direct injection diesel engine with diffused flame has reached its limitation and has driven R and D to explore other field of combustion. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and homogeneous charge combustion ignition has been proven to be effective methods in decreasing combustion pollutant emission. Nitrogen Oxide (NO x ) and Particulate Matter (PM) formation from combustion can be greatly suppressed. A review on each of method is covered to identify the condition and processes that result in these reductions. The critical parameters that allow such combustion to take place will be highlighted and serves as emphasis to the direction of developing future diesel engine system. This paper is written to explore potential of present numerical and experimental methods in optimizing diesel engine design through adoption of the new combustion technology.

Trend and future of diesel engine: Development of high efficiency and low emission low temperature combustion diesel engine

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, R. J.; Yusoff, M. Z.; Palanisamy, K.

2013-06-01

Stringent emission policy has put automotive research & development on developing high efficiency and low pollutant power train. Conventional direct injection diesel engine with diffused flame has reached its limitation and has driven R&D to explore other field of combustion. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and homogeneous charge combustion ignition has been proven to be effective methods in decreasing combustion pollutant emission. Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) and Particulate Matter (PM) formation from combustion can be greatly suppressed. A review on each of method is covered to identify the condition and processes that result in these reductions. The critical parameters that allow such combustion to take place will be highlighted and serves as emphasis to the direction of developing future diesel engine system. This paper is written to explore potential of present numerical and experimental methods in optimizing diesel engine design through adoption of the new combustion technology.

Future heat waves and surface ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

2018-06-01

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

Emissions of nitrogen oxides from road traffic - regulations, emissions and effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoedin, Aake; Pihl-Karlsson, Gunilla; Johansson, Manne; Forsberg, Bertil; Erlandsson, Lennart

2004-10-01

The report is a review that aims to improve the basis for additional measures against the road traffic emissions of, in particular, NO x . An important question in the context is whether health effects of NO 2 should serve as a norm for the actions for emission reductions of NO x , or if the environmental effects of NO x -emissions in the form of acidification, eutrophication and ozone should play this role. WHO notes, in its latest review of health effect research, that one cannot demonstrate that NO 2 alone has any direct effects in concentrations at the current whole-year mean norm (40 μg/m 3 ). Such health effects that has been demonstrated in epidemiologic studies at these concentrations are caused by other traffic related emissions (e. g. particles) for which NO 2 constitutes a good indicator. WHO indicates the need for additional sharpening of the norms for ozone and particles. In this context, it is important to note that emissions of NO x on a regional scale contributes to formation of ozone as well as particles. Therefore there exist reasons to decrease the emissions of NO x in order to reach future recommended values for ozone and particles emissions. In the evaluations that will be done during 2004-2005 of the so called Goeteborg protocol, the EU's Ceiling Directives and the CAFE-programme, it is expected that new emissions objective for NO x will be suggested for 2015-2020, to cope with health and environment objectives in Europe. The report shows that that development that currently happens within the vehicle industry, for engines and exhaust emission control system are pursued to meet future exhaust requirement in the USA gives good conditions for the road traffic sector to contribute to that these objectives will reached

Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

2014-01-01

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

Fundamental and future prospects of printed ambipolar fluorene-type polymer light-emitting transistors for improved external quantum efficiency, mobility, and emission pattern

Science.gov (United States)

Kajii, Hirotake

2018-05-01

In this review, we focus on the improved external quantum efficiency, field-effect mobility, and emission pattern of top-gate-type polymer light-emitting transistors (PLETs) based on ambipolar fluorene-type polymers. A low-temperature, high-efficiency, printable red phosphorescent PLET based on poly(alkylfluorene) with modified alkyl side chains fabricated by a film transfer process is demonstrated. Device fabrication based on oriented films leads to an improved EL intensity owing to the increase in field-effect mobility. There are three factors that affect the transport of carriers, i.e., the energy level, threshold voltage, and mobility of each layer for heterostructure PLETs, which result in various emission patterns such as the line-shaped, multicolor and in-plane emission pattern in the full-channel area between source and drain electrodes. Fundamentals and future prospects in heterostructure devices are discussed and reviewed.

On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

2009-01-01

The recent implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in January 2005 created new financial risks for emitting firms. To deal with these risks, options are traded since October 2006. Because the EU ETS is a new market, the relevant underlying model for option pricing is still a controversial issue. This article improves our understanding of this issue by characterizing the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures contract in the European Climate Exchange (ECX), which is valid during Phase II (2008-2012) of the EU ETS. The realized volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and sub-sampling estimators are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and dynamic properties of the ECX emissions futures volatility. The distribution of the daily realized volatility in logarithmic form is shown to be close to normal. The mixture-of-distributions hypothesis is strongly rejected, as the returns standardized using daily measures of volatility clearly departs from normality. A simplified HAR-RV model (Corsi, 2009) with only a weekly component, which reproduces long memory properties of the series, is then used to model the volatility dynamics. Finally, the predictive accuracy of the HAR-RV model is tested against GARCH specifications using one-step-ahead forecasts, which confirms the HAR-RV superior ability. Our conclusions indicate that (i) the standard Brownian motion is not an adequate tool for option pricing in the EU ETS, and (ii) a jump component should be included in the stochastic process to price options, thus providing more efficient tools for risk-management activities. (authors)

Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

Science.gov (United States)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

2016-04-01

The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature

Particulate emissions from diesel engines: correlation between engine technology and emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiebig, Michael; Wiartalla, Andreas; Holderbaum, Bastian; Kiesow, Sebastian

2014-03-07

In the last 30 years, diesel engines have made rapid progress to increased efficiency, environmental protection and comfort for both light- and heavy-duty applications. The technical developments include all issues from fuel to combustion process to exhaust gas aftertreatment. This paper provides a comprehensive summary of the available literature regarding technical developments and their impact on the reduction of pollutant emission. This includes emission legislation, fuel quality, diesel engine- and exhaust gas aftertreatment technologies, as well as particulate composition, with a focus on the mass-related particulate emission of on-road vehicle applications. Diesel engine technologies representative of real-world on-road applications will be highlighted.Internal engine modifications now make it possible to minimize particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions with nearly no reduction in power. Among these modifications are cooled exhaust gas recirculation, optimized injections systems, adapted charging systems and optimized combustion processes with high turbulence. With introduction and optimization of exhaust gas aftertreatment systems, such as the diesel oxidation catalyst and the diesel particulate trap, as well as NOx-reduction systems, pollutant emissions have been significantly decreased. Today, sulfur poisoning of diesel oxidation catalysts is no longer considered a problem due to the low-sulfur fuel used in Europe. In the future, there will be an increased use of bio-fuels, which generally have a positive impact on the particulate emissions and do not increase the particle number emissions.Since the introduction of the EU emissions legislation, all emission limits have been reduced by over 90%. Further steps can be expected in the future. Retrospectively, the particulate emissions of modern diesel engines with respect to quality and quantity cannot be compared with those of older engines. Internal engine modifications lead to a clear reduction of the

Emission and transmission tomography systems to be developed for the future needs of Jules Horowitz material testing reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kotiluoto, Petri [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O.Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland)], E-mail: petri.kotiluoto@vtt.fi; Wasastjerna, Frej; Kekki, Tommi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O.Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Sipilae, Heikki; Banzuzi, Kukka [Oxford Instruments Analytical Oy, Nihtisillankuja 5, P.O.Box 85, FI-02631 Espoo (Finland); Kinnunen, Petri; Heikinheimo, Liisa [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O.Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland)

2009-08-01

The new 100 MW Jules Horowitz material testing reactor will be built in Cadarache, France. It will support, for instance, research on new types of innovative nuclear fuel. As a Finnish in-kind contribution, 3D emission and transmission tomography equipment will be delivered for both the reactor and the active component storage pool. The image reconstruction of activities inside the used nuclear fuel will be based on gamma spectrometry measurements. A new type of underwater digital X-ray linear detector array is under development for transmission imaging, based on GaAs and direct conversion of X-rays into an electrical signal. A shared collimator will be used for both emission and transmission measurements. Some preliminary design has been performed. For the current design, the expected gamma spectrometric response of a typical high-purity germanium detector has been simulated with MCNP for minimum and maximum source activities (specified by CEA) to be measured in future.

Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Paasonen, Pauli; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Klimont, Zbigniew; Visschedijk, Antoon; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Amann, Markus

2016-06-01

Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa), coke production (Russia and China), and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation) scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol-cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response to tightening

Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Paasonen

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa, coke production (Russia and China, and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol–cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response

European initiatives for modeling emissions from transport

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joumard, Robert; Hickman, A. John; Samaras, Zissis

1998-01-01

In Europe there have been many cooperative studies into transport emission inventories since the late 80s. These cover the scope of CORINAIR program involving experts from seven European Community laboratories addressing only road transport emissions at national level. These also include the latest...... covered are the composition of the vehicle fleets, emission factors, driving statistics and the modeling approach. Many of the European initiatives aim also at promoting further cooperation between national laboratories and at defining future research needs. An assessment of these future needs...... is presented from a European point of view....

Zero Emission Buildings in Korea—History, Status Quo, and Future Prospects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thorsten Schuetze

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper discusses the history, status quo, and future prospects of Zero Emission Buildings (ZEBs in the Republic of Korea. The advantages of, and requirements for ZEBs are described, concerning the factors of energy, water, nutrients, and biomass. ZEBs are characterized by net zero energy consumption through the minimization of the energy demand, as well as the onsite production and use of renewable energy. The direct water footprint is reduced by up to 100% through on-site water supply and wastewater management according to the principles of Sustainable Sanitation. The fresh water demand is reduced by using water saving technologies and by recycling of wastewater. Rainwater harvesting, utilization, and infiltration facilitates for onsite drinking water production. Nutrients and biomass from sanitation systems are recycled for local soil application. While traditional Korean buildings can be generally regarded as ZEBs, traditional know-how has been overlooked in the process of modernization and implementation of centralized infrastructure systems in the 20th century. However, the growing interest in sustainability issues in Korea since the beginning of the 21st century is reflected in a growing number of research and development activities, including the design, construction, and operation of ZEBs. The widespread implementation of ZEBs would significantly contribute to sustainable development in the Republic of Korea.

Emission Data For Climate-Chemistry Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, S. J.

2012-12-01

Data on anthropogenic and natural emissions of reactive species are a critical input for studies of atmospheric chemistry and climate. The availability and characteristics of anthropogenic emissions data that can be used for such studies are reviewed and pathways for future work discuss Global and regional datasets for historical and future emissions are available, but their characteristics and applicability for specific studies differ. For the first time, a coordinated set of historical emissions (Lamarque et al 2010) and the future projections (van Vuurren et al. 2011) have been developed for use in the CMIP5 and ACCMIP long-term simulation comparison projects. These data have decadal resolution and were designed for long-term, global simulations. These data, however, lack finer-scale spatial and temporal detail that might be needed for some studies. Robust and timely updates of emissions data is generally lacking, although recent updates will be presented. While historical emission data is often treated as known, emissions are uncertain, even though this uncertainty is rarely quantified. Uncertainty varies by species and location. Inverse modeling is starting to indicate where emission data may be uncertain, which opens the way to improving these data overall. Further interaction between the chemistry modeling and inventory development communities are needed. Future projections are intrinsically uncertain, and while institutions and processes are in place to develop and review long-term century-scale scenarios, a need has remained for a wider range in shorter-term (e.g., several decade) projections. Emissions and scenario development communities have been working to fill this need. Communication across disciplines of the assumptions embedded in emissions projections remains a challenge. Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool needed for studying chemistry-climate interactions. Simpler models, however, are also needed in order to examine interactions

Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Bristow, Mila; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Beringer, Jason; Livesley, Stephen J.; Edwards, Andrew C.; Arndt, Stefan K.

2016-11-01

this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha-1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha-1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission) and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %). Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was a net carbon sink of -2.1 Mg C ha-1, or -7.7 Mg CO2-e ha-1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1) provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2) compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only) savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use decision making processes associated with land and water resource

Positron emission tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dvorak, O.

1989-01-01

The principle is briefly described of positron emission tomography, and its benefits and constraints are listed. It is emphasized that positron emission tomography (PET) provides valuable information on metabolic changes in the organism that are otherwise only very difficult to obtain, such as brain diagnosis including relationships between mental disorders and the physiology and pathophysiology of the brain. A PET machine is to be installed in Czechoslovakia in the near future. (L.O.)

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Pacyna

2016-10-01

Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

Secondary organic aerosol importance in the future atmosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsigaridis, K.; Kanakidou, M.

2007-01-01

In order to investigate the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) response to changes in biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions in the future atmosphere and how important will SOA be relative to the major anthropogenic aerosol component (sulfate), the global three-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM3 has been used. Emission estimates of biogenic VOC (BVOC) and anthropogenic gases and particles from the literature for the year 2100 have been adopted. According to our present-day model simulations, isoprene oxidation produces 4.6 Tg SOA yr -1 , that is less than half of the 12.2 Tg SOA yr -1 formed by the oxidation of other BVOC. In the future, nitrate radicals and ozone become more important than nowadays, but remain minor oxidants for both isoprene and aromatics. SOA produced by isoprene is estimated to almost triple, whereas the production from other BVOC more than triples. The calculated future SOA burden change, from 0.8 Tg at present to 2.0 Tg in the future, is driven by changes in emissions, oxidant levels and pre-existing particles. The non-linearity in SOA formation and the involved chemical and physical feedbacks prohibit the quantitative attribution of the computed changes to the above-mentioned individual factors. In 2100, SOA burden is calculated to exceed that of sulfate, indicating that SOA might become more important than nowadays. These results critically depend on the biogenic emissions and thus are subject to the high uncertainty associated with these emissions estimated due to the insufficient knowledge on plant response to carbon dioxide changes. Nevertheless, they clearly indicate that the change in oxidants and primary aerosol caused by human activities can contribute as much as the change in BVOC emissions to the increase of the biogenic SOA production in the future atmosphere. (authors)

Income and Pollutant Emissions in the ObjECTS MiniCAM Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Steven J.

2005-01-03

This paper examines the implications of the relationship between income and pollutant emission controls as parameterized in the ObjECTS MiniCAM integrated assessment model. Future scenarios for energy-related emissions of nitrous oxide (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are presented along with the methodology used to parameterize this relationship. We use a “pseudo-Kuznets” approach where the level of emission control is assumed to vary with per-capita income. No explicit assumption is, therefore, made about the relationship between income and emissions — emissions are the result of driving forces, such as economic activity level, and energy combustion technology in addition to emission controls. Emission projections depend both on the assumptions for when emissions controls are implemented and the stringency of those controls. We suggest that historical analysis of the relationship between income and emission controls might be particularly useful in informing the selection of parameters that control when emission controls are implemented. Historical analysis is likely to be less helpful in informing the selection of parameters for the future levels of control, however, particularly at future times when parameter values are well outside the range of historical experience.

Top-down model estimates, bottom-up inventories, and future projections of global natural and anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

Science.gov (United States)

Davidson, E. A.; Kanter, D.

2013-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas and the largest remaining emitted ozone depleting substance. It is a product of nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria in soils, sediments and water bodies. Humans began to disrupt the N cycle in the preindustrial era as they expanded agricultural land, used fire for land clearing and management, and cultivated leguminous crops that carry out biological N fixation. This disruption accelerated after the industrial revolution, especially as the use of synthetic N fertilizers became common after 1950. Here we present findings from a new United Nations Environment Programme report, in which we constrain estimates of the anthropogenic and natural emissions of N2O and consider scenarios for future emissions. Inventory-based estimates of natural emissions from terrestrial, marine and atmospheric sources range from 10 to 12 Tg N2O-N/yr. Similar values can be derived for global N2O emissions that were predominantly natural before the industrial revolution. While there was inter-decadal variability, there was little or no consistent trend in atmospheric N2O concentrations between 1730 and 1850, allowing us to assume near steady state. Assuming an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years, the 'top-down' estimate of pre-industrial emissions of 11 Tg N2O-N/yr is consistent with the bottom-up inventories for natural emissions, although the former includes some modest pre-industrial anthropogenic effects (probably business-as-usual scenarios over the period 2013-2050 is ~102 Tg N2O-N; equivalent to ~48 Gt CO2e or ~2730 kt ozone depleting potential. The impact of growing demand for biofuels is highly uncertain, ranging from trivial to the most significant N2O source to date, depending on the types of plants, their nutrient management, the amount of land used for their cultivation, and the fates of their waste products.

Uncertainty in the Future Distribution of Tropospheric Ozone over West Africa due to Variability in Anthropogenic Emissions Estimates between 2025 and 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. E. Williams

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Particle and trace gas emissions due to anthropogenic activity are expected to increase significantly in West Africa over the next few decades due to rising population and more energy intensive lifestyles. Here we perform 3D global chemistry-transport model calculations for 2025 and 2050 using both a “business-as-usual” (A1B and “clean economy” (B1 future anthropogenic emission scenario to focus on the changes in the distribution and uncertainties associated with tropospheric O3 due to the various projected emission scenarios. When compared to the present-day troposphere we find that there are significant increases in tropospheric O3 for the A1B emission scenario, with the largest increases being located in the lower troposphere near the source regions and into the Sahel around 15–20°N. In part this increase is due to more efficient NOx re-cycling related to increases in the background methane concentrations. Examining the uncertainty across different emission inventories reveals that there is an associated uncertainty of up to ~20% in the predicted increases at 2025 and 2050. For the upper troposphere, where increases in O3 have a more pronounced impact on radiative forcing, the uncertainty is influenced by transport of O3 rich air from Asia on the Tropical Easterly Jet.

Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D. [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

2010-09-15

Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO{sub 2}e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth). (author)

Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D.

2010-01-01

Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO 2 e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth).

A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

2011-04-15

The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

Energy development and CO2 emissions in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiaolin Xi

1993-03-01

The objective of this research is to provide a better understanding of future Chinese energy development and CO 2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. This study examines the current Chinese energy system, estimates CO 2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and projects future energy use and resulting CO 2 emissions up to the year of 2050. Based on the results of the study, development strategies are proposed and policy implications are explored. This study first develops a Base scenario projection of the Chinese energy development based upon a sectoral analysis. The Base scenario represents a likely situation of future development, but many alternatives are possible. To explore this range of alternatives, a systematic uncertainty analysis is performed. The Base scenario also represents an extrapolation of current policies and social and economic trends. As such, it is not necessarily the economically optimal future course for Chinese energy development. To explore this issue, an optimization analysis is performed. For further understanding of developing Chinese energy system and reducing CO 2 emissions, a Chinese energy system model with 84 supply and demand technologies has been constructed in MARKAL, a computer LP optimization program for energy systems. Using this model, various technological options and economic aspects of energy development and CO 2 emissions reduction in China during the 1985-2020 period are examined

Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

2009-07-01

Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

Life cycle emissions from renewable energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bates, J.; Watkiss, P.; Thorpe, T.

1997-01-01

This paper presents the methodology used in the ETSU review, together with the detailed results for three of the technologies studied: wind turbines, photovoltaic systems and small, stand-alone solar thermal systems. These emissions are then compared with those calculated for both other renewables and fossil fuel technology on a similar life cycle basis. The life cycle emissions associated with renewable energy technology vary considerably. They are lowest for those technologies where the renewable resource has been concentrated in some way (e.g. over distance in the case of wind and hydro, or over time in the case of energy crops). Wind turbines have amongst the lowest emissions of all renewables and are lower than those for fossil fuel generation, often by over an order of magnitude. Photovoltaics and solar thermal systems have the highest life cycle emissions of all the renewable energy technologies under review. However, their emissions of most pollutants are also much lower than those associated with fossil fuel technologies. In addition, the emissions associated with PV are likely to fall further in the future as the conversion efficiency of PV cells increases and manufacturing technology switches to thin film technologies, which are less energy intensive. Combining the assessments of life cycle emissions of renewables with predictions made by the World Energy Council (WEC) of their future deployment has allowed estimates to be made of amount by which renewables could reduce the future global emissions of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. It estimated that under the WEC's 'Ecologically Driven' scenario, renewables might lead to significant reductions of between 3650 and 8375 Mt in annual CO 2 emissions depending on the fossil fuel technology they are assumed to displace. (author)

Future energy-efficient and low-emissions glass melting processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beerkens, R.G.C.; Limpt, J.A.C. van; Lankhorst, A.M.; Santen, P.J. van

2012-01-01

All over the world, there is an increasing drive to develop new technologies or concepts for industrial glass melting furnaces, with the main aim to increase the energy efficiency, tabilize production and reduce emissions. The application of new process sensors, improved furnace design, intelligent

The Australian coal industry: now, and the future under carbon dioxide emission restrictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cain, D.A.

1990-01-01

Coal produces more carbon dioxide per unit of combustion energy than other fossil fuels. Therefore, reducing coal consumption is commonly advocated as one way to control greenhouse gas emissions and hence predicted global warming. Australia is highly dependent on coal, both as a primary energy source and as a major export commodity. Action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by substantially decreasing coal consumption would have a very serious impact on the Australian coal industry and the Australian economy. Australia's dependence on coal and the potential conflict between the objective of further processing Australia's mineral exports and calls to limit carbon dioxide emissions is described. The effect on coal consumption of one scenario for reducing Australia's carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation and possible effects of global carbon dioxide emission reductions on world coal trade are discussed. 24 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs

Biomass burning: Combustion emissions, satellite imagery, and biogenic emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levine, J.S.; Cofer, W.R III; Rhinehart, R.P.; Cahoon, D.R. J.; Winstead, E.L.; Sebacher, S.; Sebacher, D.I.; Stocks, B.J.

1991-01-01

This chapter deals with two different, but related, aspects of biomass burning. The first part of the chapter deals with a technique to estimate the instantaneous emissions of trace gases produced by biomass burning using satellite imagery. The second part of the chapter concerns the recent discovery that burning results in significantly enhanced biogenic emissions of N 2 O, NO, and CH 4 . Hence, biomass burning has both an immediate and long-term impact on the production of trace gases to the atmosphere. The objective of this research is to better assess and quantify the role of this research is to better assess and quantify the role and impact of biomass as a driver for global change. It will be demonstrated that satellite imagery of fires may be used to estimate combustion emissions and may in the future be used to estimate the long-term postburn biogenic emissions of trace gases to the atmosphere

Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Bristow

2016-11-01

provide a total GHG emission from this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha−1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha−1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %. Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE was a net carbon sink of −2.1 Mg C ha−1, or −7.7 Mg CO2-e ha−1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1 provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2 compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use

Neutron emissivity profile camera diagnostics considering present and future tokamaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forsberg, S.

2001-12-01

This thesis describes the neutron profile camera situated at JET. The profile camera is one of the most important neutron emission diagnostic devices operating at JET. It gives useful information of the total neutron yield rate but also about the neutron emissivity distribution. Data analysis was performed in order to compare three different calibration methods. The data was collected from the deuterium campaign, C4, in the beginning of 2001. The thesis also includes a section about the implication of a neutron profile camera for ITER, where the issue regarding interface difficulties is in focus. The ITER JCT (Joint Central Team) proposal of a neutron camera for ITER is studied in some detail

Neutron emissivity profile camera diagnostics considering present and future tokamaks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forsberg, S. [EURATOM-VR Association, Uppsala (Sweden)

2001-12-01

This thesis describes the neutron profile camera situated at JET. The profile camera is one of the most important neutron emission diagnostic devices operating at JET. It gives useful information of the total neutron yield rate but also about the neutron emissivity distribution. Data analysis was performed in order to compare three different calibration methods. The data was collected from the deuterium campaign, C4, in the beginning of 2001. The thesis also includes a section about the implication of a neutron profile camera for ITER, where the issue regarding interface difficulties is in focus. The ITER JCT (Joint Central Team) proposal of a neutron camera for ITER is studied in some detail.

Estimated HCFC-22 emissions for 1990-2050 in China and the increasing contribution to global emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhifang; Bie, Pengju; Wang, Ziyuan; Zhang, Zhaoyang; Jiang, Hanyu; Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Jianbo; Hu, Jianxin

2016-05-01

Chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF2, HCFC-22) is a widely used refrigerant and foaming agent that is not only an ozone-depleting substance (ozone depletion potential (ODP), 0.04) but also a greenhouse gas (global warming potential (GWP), 1780). A comprehensive historical emission inventory for 1990-2014 was produced using a bottom-up method, and a projection through to 2050 was made for China. The results demonstrated that historical emissions increased sharply from 0.2 Gg/yr in 1990 to 127.2 Gg/yr in 2014. Room air-conditioners (RACs), industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR), and extruded polystyrene (XPS) were three primary emission sources, and accounted for an average of 95.4% of the total emissions over the period studied. The percentage of global HCFC-22 emissions originating from China significantly increased from 0.1% in 1990 to 31.6% in 2012, with an average growth rate of 1.4% per year. Under the Montreal Protocol phasing-out (MPPO) scenario, future emissions were expected to reach a peak of 133.5 Gg/yr in 2016 and then continuously decline to 10.2 Gg/yr in 2050. The accumulative reduction for 2015-2050 would be 5533.8 Gg (equivalent to 221.4 CFC-11-eq Gg and 9850.1 CO2-eq Tg), which is approximately equivalent to the total CO2 emission for China in 2012 (9900 Tg) (Olivier et al., 2013), compared with the no Montreal Protocol scenario (NMP). Under the MPPO scenario, two cases were analyzed to explore the future emission ranges in China. A comparison between the two cases implied that the choice of emission reduction policy will have a considerable impact on HCFC-22 emissions.

Enabling Future Large Searches for Exoplanet Auroral Emission with the EPIC Correlator Architecture

Science.gov (United States)

Thyagarajan, Nithyanandan; Beardsley, Adam P.; Bowman, Judd D.; Morales, Miguel F.

2017-05-01

Extrasolar planets are expected to emit strong ``auroral'' emission at radio frequencies generated by the interaction of the host star's stellar winds with the planet's magnetosphere through electron-cyclotron maser emission. This transient emission lasts a few seconds to days and is almost fully circularly polarized. Detecting this emission in exoplanets is a critical probe of their magnetospheres and thus their interior compositions and habitability. The intensity and detectability of the emission depends on the suitability of many factors to the observing parameters such as the strength of the stellar wind power, the planetary magnetosphere cross-section, the highly beamed and coherent nature of electron-cyclotron emission, and narrow ranges of the planet's orbital phase. Large areas of sky must be surveyed continuously to high sensitivity to detect auroral emission. Next-generation radio telescopes with wide fields of view, large collecting areas and high efficiency are needed for these searches. This poses challenges to traditional correlator architectures whose computational cost scales as the square of the number of antennas. I will present a novel radio aperture synthesis imaging architecture - E-field Parallel Imaging Correlator (EPIC) - whose all-sky and full Stokes imaging capabilities will not only address the aforementioned factors preventing detection but also solve the computational challenges posed by large arrays. Compared to traditional imaging, EPIC is inherently fast and thus presents the unique advantage of probing transient timescales ranging orders of magnitude from tens of microseconds to days at no additional cost.

Road traffic emissions - predictions of future contributions to regional ozone levels in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reis, S.; Friedrich, R.; Obermeier, A.; Unger, S.

2000-01-01

As part of the European Commission research project 'Assessment of policy instruments for efficient ozone abatement strategies in Europe,' detailed emission projections have been developed for the year 2010 based upon currently adopted measures, and feasible reductions. For road-traffic emissions this projection considers passenger cars, light- and heavy-duty vehicles, mopeds and motorcycles. Here we present model calculations made with the EMEP 3-D Eulerian model to illustrate the relative contribution of each of these road-traffic sectors to ozone concentrations across Europe. The model is run for a six-month period, April-September 1996. The model results clearly suggest that further reduction in road-traffic emissions beyond currently planned measures would be beneficial in reducing ozone over Europe, particularly in the case of heavy-duty vehicles and evaporative emissions. These results do of course depend on the estimated emissions in each sector for the year 2010, and we show that this is a major source of uncertainty in such scenario calculations. (author)

Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heil, M.T.

2001-01-01

This paper estimates the historic relationship between carbon emissions and GDP using data across countries and across time. We combine this relationship with plausible projections for GDP and population growth to construct a model that offers insights into the likely path of global emissions in the next century. In addition, we experiment with a method for incorporating oil prices into the model. Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the larger structural models. (author)

Biogenic emissions of isoprenoids and NO in China and comparison to anthropogenic emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tie Xuexi; Li Guohui; Ying, Zhuming; Guenther, Alex; Madronich, Sasha

2006-01-01

northeastern and southern China, there are relatively large biogenic emissions of isoprenoids, leading to an important impact on the ozone production in these regions. Furthermore, the emissions of isoprenoids are highest during summer and noontime, which correlates to the peak of ozone production period. For example, the ratio between summer and winter for the emissions of isoprenoids is about 15 in China. As a result, the biogenic emissions of isoprenoids are significantly larger than the anthropogenic emissions of VOCs in China during daytime in summer. Biogenic NO emissions are mostly produced by agricultural soils which co-exist with large populations and human activity. As a result, the biogenic emissions of NO are mostly overlapped with the anthropogenic emissions of NO, leading to the enhancement in NO concentrations in the high anthropogenic NO emission regions. Finally, the future emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes over China are estimated. The results show that the future biogenic emissions may increase significantly due to land cover changes in central eastern China, which could have a very important impact on ozone formation in this region. However, these estimates are highly uncertain and are presented as a potential scenario to show the importance of possible changes of biogenic emissions in China

Biogenic emissions of isoprenoids and NO in China and comparison to anthropogenic emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tie, Xuexi; Li, Guohui; Ying, Zhuming; Guenther, Alex; Madronich, Sasha

2006-12-01

northeastern and southern China, there are relatively large biogenic emissions of isoprenoids, leading to an important impact on the ozone production in these regions. Furthermore, the emissions of isoprenoids are highest during summer and noontime, which correlates to the peak of ozone production period. For example, the ratio between summer and winter for the emissions of isoprenoids is about 15 in China. As a result, the biogenic emissions of isoprenoids are significantly larger than the anthropogenic emissions of VOCs in China during daytime in summer. Biogenic NO emissions are mostly produced by agricultural soils which co-exist with large populations and human activity. As a result, the biogenic emissions of NO are mostly overlapped with the anthropogenic emissions of NO, leading to the enhancement in NO concentrations in the high anthropogenic NO emission regions. Finally, the future emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes over China are estimated. The results show that the future biogenic emissions may increase significantly due to land cover changes in central eastern China, which could have a very important impact on ozone formation in this region. However, these estimates are highly uncertain and are presented as a potential scenario to show the importance of possible changes of biogenic emissions in China.

The international research progress of Ammonia(NH3) emissions and emissions reduction technology in farmland ecosystem

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, W. Z.; Jiao, Y.

2017-03-01

NH3 is the important factor leading to the grey haze, and one of the main causes of environmental problems of serious ecological imbalance, such as acid rain and air quality deterioration. The fertilizer excessive application of the current farmland results NH3 emissions intensity greatly. In order to clear the farmland NH3 emissions research status and achievements, the literature of farmland NH3 emission related were retrievaled by the SCI journals and Chinese science citation database. Some factors of NH3 emission were analyzed such as soil factors, climate factors and farmland management measures. The research progress was inductived on farmland NH3 emission reduction technology. The results will help to clarify farmland NH3 emissions research progress. The theoretical guidance was provided on the future of farmland NH3 emissions research.

The utility of the historical record in assessing future carbon budgets

Science.gov (United States)

Millar, R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Allen, M. R.

2017-12-01

It has long been known that the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most physically relevant determiner of long-lived anthropogenic climate change, with an approximately linear relationship between CO2-induced global mean surface warming and cumulative emissions. The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emission and global mean warming using observations to date. Here we show that simple regression analysis indicates that the 1.5°C carbon budget would be exhausted after nearly three decades of current emissions, substantially in excess of many estimates from Earth System Models. However, there are many reasons to be cautious about carbon budget assessments from the historical record alone. Accounting for the uncertainty in non-CO2 radiative forcing using a simple climate model and a standard optimal fingerprinting detection attribution technique gives substantial uncertainty in the contribution of CO2 warming to date, and hence the transient climate response to cumulative emissions. Additionally, the existing balance between CO2 and non-CO2 forcing may change in the future under ambitious mitigation scenarios as non-CO2 emissions become more (or less) important to global mean temperature changes. Natural unforced variability can also have a substantial impact on estimates of remaining carbon budgets. By examining all warmings of a given magnitude in both the historical record and past and future ESM simulations we quantify the impact unforced climate variability may have on estimates of remaining carbon budgets, derived as a function of estimated non-CO2 warming and future emission scenario. In summary, whilst the historical record can act as a useful test of climate models, uncertainties in the response to future cumulative emissions remain large and extrapolations of future carbon budgets from the historical record alone should be treated with caution.

Mitigation of emissions from wildfires in Australia: potential for use of managed prescribed fire in eucalypt dominated vegetation, present and future. (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Bradstock, R.; Price, O.; Williams, D.; Hutley, L.

2010-12-01

under contemporary management, fuel consumption and the volume of emissions may increase with increasing rates of prescribed burning. This has further implications for carbon storage in these forests. In eucalypt forests, current losses of carbon in wildfires appear to be offset by storage during the interval between wildfires. Future increases in the rate of intense wildfires as a result of climate change, have the potential to adversely disrupt this balance and pose a challenge to management. The ideal mix of management measures (i.e. prevention and suppression) required to counter the possibility of a degradation of significant carbon storage in Australian forests is yet to be resolved and will require a better understanding of how differing fuel treatment and suppression options can perform to best effect. By contrast the scope for management of emissions from fires in savanna woodlands is high, though their low potential for storage of carbon is also vulnerable to degradation by wildfires in the future.

'Capture ready' regulation of fossil fuel power plants - Betting the UK's carbon emissions on promises of future technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markusson, Nils; Haszeldine, Stuart

2010-01-01

Climate change legislation requires emissions reductions, but the market shows interest in investing in new fossil fuelled power plants. The question is whether capture ready policy can reconcile these interests. The term 'capture ready' has been used a few years by the UK Government when granting licences for fossil fuelled power plants, but only recently has the meaning of the term been defined. The policy has been promoted as a step towards CCS and as an insurance against carbon lock-in. This paper draws on literature on technology lock-in and on regulation of technology undergoing development. Further, versions of the capture readiness concept proposed to date are compared. Capture readiness requirements beyond the minimum criterion of space on the site for capture operations are explored. This includes integration of capture and power plant, downstream operations, overall system integration and regulation of future retrofitting. Capture readiness comes with serious uncertainties and is no guarantee that new-built fossil plants will be abatable or abated in the future. As a regulatory strategy, it has been over-promised in the UK.

Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions

OpenAIRE

Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin

2013-01-01

Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inven...

Possible future petroleum activity around Jan Mayen. Consequences of emissions to air.; Aapning av havomraadene ved Jan Mayen for petroleumsvirksomhet. Konsekvenser av regulaere utslipp til luft.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Solberg, Sverre; Svendby, Tove; Gjerstad, Karl Idar; Liu, Li; Wathne, Bente M.; Skjelkvaale, Brit Lisa; Hoegaasen, Tore; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Gjershaug, Jan Ove

2012-07-01

Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) and the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) have considered the effects on the environment of emissions of NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and particulate matter into the air from any future petroleum activity in the waters around Jan Mayen. It is estimated deposition of nitrogen, sulfur and particulates - also formation of ozone is calculated. It is also considered what effect it has on nature. Calculations indicate that emissions most likely will not lead to negative effects on vegetation and fauna of the terrestrial impact area. (Author)

Energy futures-2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1991-01-01

This book covers the proceedings of the Symposium on Energy Futures II. Topics covered include: The National Energy Strategy; The Gas and petroleum industry; energy use in the paper industry; solar energy technology; hydroelectric power; biomass/waste utilization; engine emissions testing laboratories; integrated coal gassification-combined-cycle power plants

Assessment of Current and Future Air Pollutant Emission Reduction Technologies for Marine Diesel Engines

Science.gov (United States)

2014-02-01

Liquefied Natural Gas and Methanol – Dimethyl Ether. 6.3.1 Biodiesel An extensive review across many transportation sectors of the emissions of...33 6.3.1 Biodiesel ...problems. SOx emissions from shipping represent about 60% of global transport SOx emissions. 2.4 Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) The amount of NOx in engines

Current puzzles and future possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagamiya, S.

1982-02-01

Four current puzzles and several future experimental possibilities in high-energy nuclear collision research are discussed. These puzzles are (1) entropy, (2) hydrodynamic flow, (3) anomalon, and (4) particle emission at backward angles in proton-nucleus collisions. The last one seems not to be directly related to the subject of the present school. But it is, because particle emission into the region far beyond the nucleon-nucleon kinematical limit is an interesting subject common for both proton-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions, and the basic mechanism involved is strongly related in these two cases. Future experimental possibilities are described which include: (1) possibilities of studying multibaryonic excited states, (2) applications of neutron-rich isotopes, and (3) other needed experimental tasks. 72 references

Automated Vehicle Regulation: An Energy and Emissions Perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levine, Aaron

2016-05-18

This presentation provides a summary of the current automated vehicles polices in the United States and how they related to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The presentation then looks at future automated vehicle trends that will increase and reduce GHG emissions and what current policies utilized in other areas of law could be adapted for automated vehicle GHG emissions.

CO{sub 2}-emissions from future waste incineration - Sub-Project 5; CO{sub 2}-utslaepp fraan framtida avfallsfoerbraanning - Delprojekt 5 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bisaillon, Mattias; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Maartenssson, Paal

2013-09-01

The use of fossil fuels in Swedish district heating systems has fallen sharply. With continued pressure from society to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, it is likely that the use of these fuels will decrease further. The major remaining source of emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) from district heating systems 2020 is waste incineration with energy recovery in the form of electricity and heat. The aim of this project was, from two perspectives (stack perspective and system perspective), to analyze future emissions of fossil CO{sub 2} from Swedish waste incineration in the Swedish district heating systems. By studying both perspectives at the same time, the results answer whether changes in emissions in one perspective give similar or opposite effects seen from the other perspective. The purpose was also to make cost estimates for emission reduction measures affecting waste, energy and material production system. These costs were related to the price of allowances in the EU ETS and to the Swedish carbon tax. The project was performed in 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment'.

CO2 emissions of nuclear electricity generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wissel, Steffen; Mayer-Spohn, Oliver; Fahl, Ulrich; Blesl, Markus; Voss, Alfred

2008-01-01

A survey of LCA studies on nuclear electricity generation revealed life cycle CO 2 emissions ranging between 3 g/kWhe to 60 g/kWhe and above. Firstly, this paper points out the discrepancies in studies by estimating the CO 2 emissions of nuclear power generation. Secondly, the paper sets out to provide critical review of future developments of the fuel cycle for light water reactors and illustrates the impact of uncertainties on the specific CO 2 emissions of nuclear electricity generation. Each step in the fuel cycle will be considered and with regard to the CO 2 emissions analysed. Thereby different assumptions and uncertainty levels are determined for the nuclear fuel cycle. With the impacts of low uranium ore grades for mining and milling as well as higher burn-up rates future fuel characteristics are considered. Sensitivity analyses are performed for all fuel processing steps, for different technical specifications of light water reactors as well as for further external frame conditions. (authors)

Historic Patterns of CO{sub 2} Emissions from Fossil Fuels: Implications for Stabilization of Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Andres, R. J.; Marland, G.

1994-06-01

This paper examines the historical record of greenhouse gas emissions since 1950, reviews the prospects for emissions into the future, and projects what would be the short-term outcome if the stated targets of the FCCC were in fact achieved. The examination focuses on the most important of the greenhouse gases, CO{sub 2}. The extensive record of historic CO{sub 2} emissions is explored to ascertain if it is an adequate basis for useful extrapolation into the near future. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption have been documented. Emissions grew at 4.3% per year from 1950 until the time of the 1973 oil crisis. Another disruption in growth followed the oil price increases of 1979. Global total emissions have been increasing steadily since the 1982-1983 minimum and have grown by more than 20% since then. At present, emission Of CO{sub 2} from fossil fuel burning is dominated by a few countries: the U.S., the former Soviet Union, China, the developed countries of Europe and Japan. Only 20 countries emit 84% of emissions from all countries. However, rates of growth in many of the developed countries are now very low. In contrast, energy use has grown rapidly over the last 20 years in some of the large, developing economies. Emissions from fossil fuel consumption are now nearly 4 times those from land use change and are the primary cause of measured increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2}. The increasing concentration of atmospheric CO{sub 2} has led to rising concern about the possibility of impending changes in the global climate system. In an effort to limit or mitigate potential negative effects of global climate change, 154 countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June, 1992. The FCCC asks all countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions setting non-binding targets.

Mercury emissions from municipal solid waste combustors. An assessment of the current situation in the United States and forecast of future emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1993-05-01

This report examines emissions of mercury (Hg) from municipal solid waste (MSW) combustion in the United States (US). It is projected that total annual nationwide MSW combustor emissions of mercury could decrease from about 97 tonnes (1989 baseline uncontrolled emissions) to less than about 4 tonnes in the year 2000. This represents approximately a 95 percent reduction in the amount of mercury emitted from combusted MSW compared to the 1989 mercury emissions baseline. The likelihood that routinely achievable mercury emissions removal efficiencies of about 80 percent or more can be assured; it is estimated that MSW combustors in the US could prove to be a comparatively minor source of mercury emissions after about 1995. This forecast assumes that diligent measures to control mercury emissions, such as via use of supplemental control technologies (e.g., carbon adsorption), are generally employed at that time. However, no present consensus was found that such emissions control measures can be implemented industry-wide in the US within this time frame. Although the availability of technology is apparently not a limiting factor, practical implementation of necessary control technology may be limited by administrative constraints and other considerations (e.g., planning, budgeting, regulatory compliance requirements, etc.). These projections assume that: (a) about 80 percent mercury emissions reduction control efficiency is achieved with air pollution control equipment likely to be employed by that time; (b) most cylinder-shaped mercury-zinc (CSMZ) batteries used in hospital applications can be prevented from being disposed into the MSW stream or are replaced with alternative batteries that do not contain mercury; and (c) either the amount of mercury used in fluorescent lamps is decreased to an industry-wide average of about 27 milligrams of mercury per lamp or extensive diversion from the MSW stream of fluorescent lamps that contain mercury is accomplished.

Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Olivier JGJ; LAE

1995-01-01

An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

The potential of synthetic fuels to meet future emission regulations; Potenzial synthetischer Kraftstoffe zur Einhaltung zukuenftiger Emissionsgrenzwerte

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herrmann, H.O.; Keppeler, S.; Friess, W. [DaimlerChrysler AG, Stuttgart (Germany); Botha, J.J. [Sasol Technology (Pty) Ltd., Rosebank (South Africa); Schaberg, P. [Sasol Advanced Fuel Lab., Univ. of Cape Town (South Africa); Schnell, P. [Sasol Chevron Consulting Ltd., London (United Kingdom)

2006-07-01

The potential of GTL diesel fuel for further improving engine performance and reducing exhaust emissions beyond euro 4 was investigated in a Mercedes-Benz E320 CDI passenger car. Starting with the outlook on the production and properties of GTL fuel against the anticipated future diesel demand, the paper addresses the impacts of GTL diesel fuel on heavy-duty and light-duty engines. Based on preceding work on un-adapted engines, published in an earlier paper in 2004 at the 25{sup th} International Vienna Motor Symposium, the hardware configuration and software calibration of the E320 engine were now modified to better utilize the advantageous properties of the Sasol Chevron GTL diesel fuel. In order to keep engine changes at a minimum, hardware modifications were limited to lowering the compression ratio and optimizing the injection equipment. These hardware modifications required the adaptation of the engine software calibration, such as injection system parameters, boost pressure adjustment, and EGR rates. It has been shown that, by detailed bench work and chassis dynamometer testing, the vehicle, which is equipped with a DPF and has a euro 4 calibration in its original form, can comply with the very stringent nitrogen oxides emission limits of 0.08 g/km (NEDC) when moderately modified and operated on GTL diesel fuel. This was achieved without any active nitrogen oxides exhaust gas aftertreatment. This establishes a very promising outlook for a cost-efficient means for reducing exhaust emissions, and again highlights the benefits that may be obtained with cleaner fuels (GTL diesel fuel is free of sulfur and aromatics and has a cetane number > 70). The paper presents details of the fuel, the engine modifications and the test results obtained so far. (orig.)

Future research program on prompt γ-ray emission in nuclear fission

Science.gov (United States)

Oberstedt, S.; Billnert, R.; Hambsch, F.-J.; Lebois, M.; Oberstedt, A.; Wilson, J. N.

2015-12-01

In recent years the measurement of prompt fission γ-ray spectra (PFGS) has gained renewed interest, after about forty years since the first comprehensive studies of the reactions 235U(n th , f), 239Pu(n th ,f) and 252Cf(sf). The renaissance was initiated by requests for new values especially for γ-ray multiplicity and average total energy release per fission in neutron-induced fission of 235U and 239Pu. Both isotopes are considered the most important ones with respect to the modeling of innovative cores required for the Generation-IV reactors, the majority working with fast neutrons. During the last 5 years we have conducted a systematic study of spectral data for thermal-neutron-induced fission on 235U and 241Pu as well as for the spontaneous fission of 252Cf with unprecedented accuracy. From the new data we conclude that those reactions do not considerably contribute to the observed heat excess and suspect other reactions playing a significant role. Possible contributions may originate from fast-neutron-induced reactions on 238U, which is largely present in the fuel, or from γ-induced fission from neutron capture in the construction material. A first experiment campaign on prompt γ-ray emission from fast-neutron-induced fission on 235,238U was successfully performed in order to test our assumptions. In the following we attempt to summarize, what has been done in the field to date, and to motivate future measurement campaigns exploiting dedicated neutron and photon beams as well as upcoming highly efficient detector assemblies.

Impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on the simulated response of ozone and fine particulate matter to anthropogenic emission reductions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogrefe, Christian; Isukapalli, Sastry S; Tang, Xiaogang; Georgopoulos, Panos G; He, Shan; Zalewsky, Eric E; Hao, Winston; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Key, Tonalee; Sistla, Gopal

2011-01-01

The role of emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitric oxide from biogenic sources is becoming increasingly important in regulatory air quality modeling as levels of anthropogenic emissions continue to decrease and stricter health-based air quality standards are being adopted. However, considerable uncertainties still exist in the current estimation methodologies for biogenic emissions. The impact of these uncertainties on ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels for the eastern United States was studied, focusing on biogenic emissions estimates from two commonly used biogenic emission models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS). Photochemical grid modeling simulations were performed for two scenarios: one reflecting present day conditions and the other reflecting a hypothetical future year with reductions in emissions of anthropogenic oxides of nitrogen (NOx). For ozone, the use of MEGAN emissions resulted in a higher ozone response to hypothetical anthropogenic NOx emission reductions compared with BEIS. Applying the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance on regulatory air quality modeling in conjunction with typical maximum ozone concentrations, the differences in estimated future year ozone design values (DVF) stemming from differences in biogenic emissions estimates were on the order of 4 parts per billion (ppb), corresponding to approximately 5% of the daily maximum 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 75 ppb. For PM2.5, the differences were 0.1-0.25 microg/m3 in the summer total organic mass component of DVFs, corresponding to approximately 1-2% of the value of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 microg/m3. Spatial variations in the ozone and PM2.5 differences also reveal that the impacts of different biogenic emission estimates on ozone and PM2.5 levels are dependent on ambient levels of anthropogenic emissions.

Control of mercury emissions: policies, technologies, and future trends

OpenAIRE

Rhee, Seung-Whee

2015-01-01

Seung-Whee Rhee Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon, Republic of Korea Abstract: Owing to the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Global Mercury Partnership, policies and regulations on mercury management in advanced countries were intensified by a mercury phaseout program in the mercury control strategy. In developing countries, the legislative or regulatory frameworks on mercury emissions are not established specifically, but mercury management is designed...

Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

none

2005-07-01

Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

2012-01-01

The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

How much do electric drive vehicles matter to future U.S. emissions?

Science.gov (United States)

Babaee, Samaneh; Nagpure, Ajay S; DeCarolis, Joseph F

2014-01-01

Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles--known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs)--may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO2 policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.

Elemental composition of current automotive braking materials and derived air emission factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hulskotte, J.H.J.; Roskam, G.D.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.

2014-01-01

Wear-related PM emissions are an important constituent of total PM emissions from road transport. Due to ongoing (further) exhaust emission reduction wear emissions may become the dominant PM source from road transport in the near future. The chemical composition of the wear emissions is crucial

Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

2018-07-01

Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO x , VOC, and NH 3 , while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO 2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations. Copyright © 2018

Making a market for SO2 emissions trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solomon, B.D.; Rose, K.

1992-01-01

Under the innovative, market-based approach to acid rain control included in the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990 (CAAA), sulfur dioxide emission allowances allocated to existing electric utility sources of these emissions can be used by utilities, banked for future use, or sold or traded to other users. Most power plants that burn fossil fuels will need to obtain an adequate supply of allowances from the market of EPA-sponsored auctions to cover their future emissions. This article addresses the respective roles of regulators and the private sector in facilitating a market for SO 2 emission allowances. In previous work, the authors have argued that state public utility commissions should seize the opportunity to encourage utilities to facilitate the allowance market. Yet it is the nature of new markets that many potential participants (including regulators) are risk-averse and wait for others to make the first move. Taken to the extreme, such behavior is a prescription for failure. The authors stated purpose is both to offer a perspective on how to make a market for what was previously considered an externality, as well as to stimulate debate among the various players and elicit better ideas. In fact, much more may be at stake. The success or failure of the emissions trading program could well set a benchmark for future environmental protection efforts in the US and globally

Energy development and CO₂ emissions in China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xi, Xiaolin [Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

1993-03-01

The objective of this research is to provide a better understanding of future Chinese energy development and CO₂ emissions from burning fossil fuels. This study examines the current Chinese energy system, estimates CO₂ emissions from burning fossil fuels and projects future energy use and resulting CO₂ emissions up to the year of 2050. Based on the results of the study, development strategies are proposed and policy implications are explored. This study first develops a Base scenario projection of the Chinese energy development based upon a sectoral analysis. The Base scenario represents a likely situation of future development, but many alternatives are possible. To explore this range of alternatives, a systematic uncertainty analysis is performed. The Base scenario also represents an extrapolation of current policies and social and economic trends. As such, it is not necessarily the economically optimal future course for Chinese energy development. To explore this issue, an optimization analysis is performed. For further understanding of developing Chinese energy system and reducing CO₂ emissions, a Chinese energy system model with 84 supply and demand technologies has been constructed in MARKAL, a computer LP optimization program for energy systems. Using this model, various technological options and economic aspects of energy development and CO₂ emissions reduction in China during the 1985-2020 period are examined.

The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dubois, G.; Ceron, J.P.; Peeters, P.M.; Gössling, S.

2011-01-01

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid

Efficiency of European emissions markets: Lessons and implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar; Hoque, Ariful

2011-01-01

While prior studies have shown that emission rights and futures contracts on emission rights are efficiently priced, there are no studies on the efficiency of the options market. Therefore, this study fills the gap. We examine empirical evidence regarding the efficiency of the options market for emissions rights in Europe. We employ the put-call parity approach to test the efficiency of options on emission rights traded in the European market. This implies that firms can trade options on emission rights in addition to other existing strategies in order to manage their greenhouse gas emissions. - Highlights: → Efficiency of the European options market for emissions. → Design implications for the development of emissions trading schemes in other countries. → Governance issues pertaining to emissions trading.

The air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 pathways for achieving peak carbon targets in Jiangsu, China

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, M.; Bi, J.; Huang, Y.; Kinney, P. L.

2016-12-01

Jiangsu, which has three national low-carbon pilot cities, is set to be a model province in China for achieving peak carbon targets before 2030. However, according to local planning of responding to climate change, carbon emissions are projected to keep going up before 2020 even the strictest measures are implemented. In other words, innovative measures must be in action after 2020. This work aimed at assessing the air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 measures to help remove barriers of policy implementation through tying it to local incentives for air quality improvement. To achieve the aim, we select 2010 as baseline year and develop Bussiness As Usual (BAU) and Traditional Carbon Reduction (TCR) scenarios before 2020. Under BAU, only existing climate and air pollution control policies are considered; under TCR, potential climate policies in local planning and existing air pollution control policies are considered. After 2020, integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and large-scale substitution of renewable energy seem to be two promising pathways for achieving peak carbon targets. Therefore, two additional scenarios (TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE) are set after 2020. Based on the projections of future energy balances and industrial productions, we estimate the pollutant emissions and simulate PM2.5 and ozone concentrations by 2017, 2020, 2030 and 2050 using CMAQ. Then using health impact assessment approach, the premature deaths are estimated and monetized. Results show that the carbon peak in Jiangsu will be achieved before 2030 only under TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE scenarios. Under three policy scenarios, Jiangsu's carbon emission control targets would have substantial effects on primary air pollutant emissions far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet the PM2.5 concentration targets in 2017. Compared with IGCC with CCS, large-scale substitutions of renewable energy bring

The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stankeviciute, Loreta; Kitous, Alban; Criqui, Patrick

2008-01-01

The study aims to analyze the sectoral marginal abatements cost curves for a number of EU countries as well as to examine the efficiency aspects and the economic impacts for the major sectors of the ETS under different carbon market configurations in 2010 and 2020. To produce a consistent and realistic assessment, we employ sources such as GHG National Inventories, NAPs and POLES world energy model to constitute the sectoral base year and 2010, 2020 emission levels in different countries and regions. We then use the market analysis tool ASPEN, which enables to derive supply and demand from sectoral MACCs produced with the POLES model, and to evaluate the economic impacts on the carbon market participants. The paper shows that, in compliance with the Kyoto targets, the benefits of an enlarged carbon market are significant, since more than 50% of the abatement in the short term have to be achieved in ETS sectors, which may indeed use CDM or JI credits. A second major conclusion is that in 2020 the new flexibility margins provided by the adjustment of investments in new capacities compensate for the increase in pressure towards stronger emission reductions. This reduces the relative importance of the enlarged carbon market

Energy future 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Syri, S; Kainiemi, L; Riikonen, V [Aalto Univ. School of Engineering, Espoo (Finland). Dept. of Energy Technology

2011-07-01

The track was organized by the Department of Energy Technology, School of Engineering, at Aalto University. Energy future 2050 -track introduced participants to the global long-term challenges of achieving a sustainable energy supply. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), effective climate change mitigation would require the global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by 50-85% from the present level by 2050. For industrialized countries, this would probably mean a practically carbon-neutral economy and energy supply, as developing countries need more possibilities for growth and probably enter stricter emission reduction commitments with some delay. In the beginning of the workshop, students were introduced to global energy scenarios and the challenge of climate change mitigation. Students worked in three groups with the following topics: How to gain public acceptance of Carbon (dioxide) Capture and Storage (CCS) ? Personal emissions trading as a tool to achieve deep emission cuts, How to get rid of fossil fuel subsidies? Nordic cases are peat use in Finland and Sweden. (orig.)

Air Contamination by Mercury, Emissions and Transformations-a Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Gworek, Barbara; Dmuchowski, Wojciech; Baczewska, Aneta H; Brągoszewska, Paulina; Bemowska-Kałabun, Olga; Wrzosek-Jakubowska, Justyna

2017-01-01

The present and future air contamination by mercury is and will continue to be a serious risk for human health. This publication presents a review of the literature dealing with the issues related to air contamination by mercury and its transformations as well as its natural and anthropogenic emissions. The assessment of mercury emissions into the air poses serious methodological problems. It is particularly difficult to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic emissions and re-emissions from lands and oceans, including past emissions. At present, the largest emission sources include fuel combustion, mainly that of coal, and "artisanal and small-scale gold mining" (ASGM). The distinctly highest emissions can be found in South and South-East Asia, accounting for 45% of the global emissions. The emissions of natural origin and re-emissions are estimated at 45-66% of the global emissions, with the largest part of emissions originating in the oceans. Forecasts on the future emission levels are not unambiguous; however, most forecasts do not provide for reductions in emissions. Ninety-five percent of mercury occurring in the air is Hg 0 -GEM, and its residence time in the air is estimated at 6 to 18 months. The residence times of its Hg II -GOM and that in Hg p -TPM are estimated at hours and days. The highest mercury concentrations in the air can be found in the areas of mercury mines and those of ASGM. Since 1980 when it reached its maximum, the global background mercury concentration in the air has remained at a relatively constant level.

Future energy loads for a large-scale adoption of electric vehicles in the city of Los Angeles: Impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jae D.; Rahimi, Mansour

2014-01-01

Using plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has become an important component of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategy in the transportation sector. Assessing the net effect of PEVs on GHG emissions, however, is dependent on factors such as type and scale of electricity generation sources, adoption rate, and charging behavior. This study creates a comprehensive model that estimates the energy load and GHG emissions impacts for the years 2020 and 2030 for the city of Los Angeles. For 2020, model simulations show that the PEV charging loads will be modest with negligible effects on the overall system load profile. Contrary to previous study results, the average marginal carbon intensity is higher if PEV charging occurs during off-peak hours. These results suggest that current economic incentives to encourage off-peak charging result in greater GHG emissions. Model simulations for 2030 show that PEV charging loads increase significantly resulting in potential generation shortages. There are also significant grid operation challenges as the region's energy grid is required to ramp up and down rapidly to meet PEV loads. For 2030, the average marginal carbon intensity for off-peak charging becomes lower than peak charging mainly due to the removal of coal from the power generation portfolio. - Highlights: • Future energy load from PEV charging in the city of Los Angeles is modeled. • Changes in the marginal carbon intensity of the region's electric grid are modeled. • In the short run, offpeak charging results in higher marginal carbon intensity. • There is a mismatch between emissions and economic incentives for charging

Current and future emissions of primary pollutants from coal-fired power plants in Shaanxi, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yong; Hu, Jianlin; Ying, Qi; Hao, Hongke; Wang, Dexiang; Zhang, Hongliang

2017-10-01

A high-resolution inventory of primary atmospheric pollutants from coal-fired power plants in Shaanxi in 2012 was built based on a detailed database compiled at unit level involving unit capacity, boiler size and type, commission time, corresponding control technologies, and average coal quality of 72 power plants. The pollutants included SO 2 , NO x , fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), inhalable particulate matter (PM 10 ), organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), carbon monoxide (CO) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). Emission factors for SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 and PM 10 were adopted from standardized official promulgation, supplemented by those from local studies. The estimated annual emissions of SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , PM 10 , EC, OC, CO and NMVOC were 152.4, 314.8, 16.6, 26.4, 0.07, 0.27, 64.9 and 2.5kt, respectively. Small units (emission rates compared to medium (≥100MW and emissions were decontamination efficiency, sulfur content and ash content of coal. Weinan and Xianyang were the two cities with the highest emissions, and Guanzhong Plain had the largest emission density. Despite the projected growth of coal consumption, emissions would decrease in 2030 due to improvement in emission control technologies and combustion efficiencies. SO 2 and NO x emissions would experience significant reduction by ~81% and ~84%, respectively. PM 2.5 , PM 10 , EC and OC would be decreased by ~43% and CO and NMVOC would be reduced by ~16%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An explanation of carbon emission markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

After having outlined the necessity to drastically reduce anthropic carbon emissions, and discussed how to associate standards, taxes and quota markets, the authors describe how carbon emission markets have emerged: the Kyoto protocol, the emission trade scheme (ETS) of the European Union, other carbon markets (existing or in preparation). They introduce and present four pillars of carbon emission markets: the allocation process, the reliability of emission measurement and control, market records and transparency, and introduction of flexibility. They examine the possibility of success in the development of a greenhouse gas emission market. The authors discuss the problems raised by a design of carbon markets by government and their use by private actors, how to connect existing or future regional carbon markets, the integration of forest and agriculture through new compensatory mechanisms, how to face carbon leaks by widening carbon markets

Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, Martin

2012-07-01

The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

Sustaining the future: the role of nuclear power in meeting future world energy needs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.; Sun, Y.

2003-01-01

A description is given of recently informed analyses showing the potential that nuclear power has in meeting global energy demands. For both the electricity and transportation sectors, we can quantify the beneficial effects on the environment, and we show how nuclear power deserves credit for its role in assisting future world energy, environmental and economic sustainability. The continuing expansion of the world's and Asia's energy needs, coupled with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions, will require new approaches for large scale energy production and use. This is particularly important for China and Asia with respect to meeting both the energy demand and sustainability challenges. We show and explore the role of nuclear power for large-scale energy applications, including electricity production and hydrogen for transportation. Advanced nuclear technologies, such as those like CANDU's next generation ACR, can meet future global energy market needs, avoid emissions, and mitigate the potential for global climate change. We use the latest IPCC Scenarios out to the year 2100 as a base case, but correct them to examine the sensitivity to large scale nuclear and hydrogen fuel penetration. We show a significant impact of nuclear energy on energy market penetration, and in reducing GHGs and other emissions in the coming century, particularly in the industrial developing world and in Asia. This is achieved without needing emissions credits, as are used or needed as economic support for other sources, or for subsidies via emissions trading schemes. Nuclear power offers the relatively emissions-free means, both to provide electricity for traditional applications and, by electrolytic production of hydrogen, to extend its use deep into the transportation sector. For the published IPCC Marker Scenarios for Asia we show the reduction in GHG emissions when electrolysis using electricity from nuclear power assists the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel

Future research program on prompt γ-ray emission in nuclear fission

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oberstedt, S.; Hambsch, F.J. [Joint Research Centre IRMM, European Commission, Geel (Belgium); Billnert, R. [Joint Research Centre IRMM, European Commission, Geel (Belgium); Chalmers Tekniska Hoegskola, Fundamental Fysik, Goeteborg (Sweden); Lebois, M.; Wilson, J.N. [Institut de Physique Nucleaire Orsay, Orsay (France); Oberstedt, A. [Chalmers Tekniska Hoegskola, Fundamental Fysik, Goeteborg (Sweden); Ossolution Consulting, Oerebro (Sweden)

2015-12-15

In recent years the measurement of prompt fission γ-ray spectra (PFGS) has gained renewed interest, after about forty years since the first comprehensive studies of the reactions {sup 235}U(n{sub th}, f), {sup 239}Pu(n{sub th},f) and {sup 252}Cf(sf). The renaissance was initiated by requests for new values especially for γ-ray multiplicity and average total energy release per fission in neutron-induced fission of {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu. Both isotopes are considered the most important ones with respect to the modeling of innovative cores required for the Generation-IV reactors, the majority working with fast neutrons. During the last 5 years we have conducted a systematic study of spectral data for thermal-neutron-induced fission on {sup 235}U and {sup 241}Pu as well as for the spontaneous fission of {sup 252}Cf with unprecedented accuracy. From the new data we conclude that those reactions do not considerably contribute to the observed heat excess and suspect other reactions playing a significant role. Possible contributions may originate from fast-neutron-induced reactions on {sup 238}U, which is largely present in the fuel, or from γ-induced fission from neutron capture in the construction material. A first experiment campaign on prompt γ-ray emission from fast-neutron-induced fission on {sup 235,238}U was successfully performed in order to test our assumptions. In the following we attempt to summarize, what has been done in the field to date, and to motivate future measurement campaigns exploiting dedicated neutron and photon beams as well as upcoming highly efficient detector assemblies. (orig.)

The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greenblatt, Jeffery B. [Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,; Brown, Nicholas R. [Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802; Slaybaugh, Rachel [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720; Wilks, Theresa [Plasma Science and Fusion Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139; Stewart, Emma [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550; McCoy, Sean T. [Global Security, E Program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550

2017-10-17

We review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply it with minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal, and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO2 capture and sequestration. We discuss two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) as exciting but uncertain additional options for low-net GHG emissions (i.e., low-carbon) electricity generation. In addition, we discuss grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes). For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed, along with technical challenges, costs, and other issues as appropriate. Although no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.

Greenhouse gas emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graham, R.L.; Perlack, R.D.; Prasad, A.M.G.; Ranney, J.W.; Waddle, D.B.

1990-11-01

Current and future carbon emissions from land-use change and energy consumption were analyzed for Sub-Saharan Africa. The energy sector analysis was based on UN energy data tapes while the land-use analysis was based on a spatially-explicit land-use model developed specifically for this project. The impacts of different energy and land-use strategies on future carbon emissions were considered. (A review of anthropogenic emissions of methane, nitrous oxides, and chlorofluorocarbons in Sub-Saharan Africa indicated that they were probably minor in both a global and a regional context. The study therefore was focused on emissions of carbon dioxide.) The land-use model predicts carbon emissions from land use change and the amount of carbon stored in vegetation (carbon inventory) on a yearly basis between 1985 and 2001. Emissions and inventory are modeled at 9000 regularly-spaced point locations in Sub-Saharan Africa using location-specific information on vegetation type, soils, climate and deforestation. Vegetation, soils, and climate information were derived from continental-scale maps while relative deforestation rates(% of forest land lost each year) were developed from country-specific forest and deforestation statistics (FAO Tropical Forest Resources Assessment for Africa, 1980). The carbon emissions under different land use strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa were analyzed by modifying deforestation rates and altering the amount of carbon stored under different land uses. The considered strategies were: preservation of existing forests, implementation of agroforestry, and establishment of industrial tree plantations. 82 refs., 16 figs., 25 tabs.

Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE model v1.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. B. Zapata

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i on-road, (ii rail and off-road, (iii marine and aviation, (iv residential and commercial, (v electricity generation, and (vi biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG

Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model v1.0

Science.gov (United States)

Zapata, Christina B.; Yang, Chris; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J.

2018-04-01

The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step) scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors) that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i) on-road, (ii) rail and off-road, (iii) marine and aviation, (iv) residential and commercial, (v) electricity generation, and (vi) biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors) increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG-Step scenario vs

Carbon trading: Current schemes and future developments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perdan, Slobodan; Azapagic, Adisa

2011-01-01

This paper looks at the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading schemes and examines the prospects of carbon trading. The first part of the paper gives an overview of several mandatory GHG trading schemes around the world. The second part focuses on the future trends in carbon trading. It argues that the emergence of new schemes, a gradual enlargement of the current ones, and willingness to link existing and planned schemes seem to point towards geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading. However, such expansion would need to overcome some considerable technical and non-technical obstacles. Linking of the current and emerging trading schemes requires not only considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems, but also necessitates clear regulatory and policy signals, continuing political support and a more stable economic environment. Currently, the latter factors are missing. The global economic turmoil and its repercussions for the carbon market, a lack of the international deal on climate change defining the Post-Kyoto commitments, and unfavourable policy shifts in some countries, cast serious doubts on the expansion of emissions trading and indicate that carbon trading enters an uncertain period. - Highlights: → The paper provides an extensive overview of mandatory emissions trading schemes around the world. → Geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading are identified as future trends. → The expansion requires considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems. → Clear policy signals, political support and a stable economic environment are needed for the expansion. → A lack of the post-Kyoto commitments and unfavourable policy shifts indicate an uncertain future for carbon trading.

Reducing global NOx emissions: developing advanced energy and transportation technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Bradley, Michael J; Jones, Brian M

2002-03-01

Globally, energy demand is projected to continue to increase well into the future. As a result, global NOx emissions are projected to continue on an upward trend for the foreseeable future as developing countries increase their standards of living. While the US has experienced improvements in reducing NOx emissions from stationary and mobile sources to reduce ozone, further progress is needed to reduce the health and ecosystem impacts associated with NOx emissions. In other parts of the world, (in developing countries in particular) NOx emissions have been increasing steadily with the growth in demand for electricity and transportation. Advancements in energy and transportation technologies may help avoid this increase in emissions if appropriate policies are implemented. This paper evaluates commercially available power generation and transportation technologies that produce fewer NOx emissions than conventional technologies, and advanced technologies that are on the 10-year commercialization horizon. Various policy approaches will be evaluated which can be implemented on the regional, national and international levels to promote these advanced technologies and ultimately reduce NOx emissions. The concept of the technology leap is offered as a possibility for the developing world to avoid the projected increases in NOx emissions.

Linearity between temperature peak and bio-energy CO2 emission rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cherubini, Francesco; Bright, Ryan M.; Stromman, Anders H.; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe

2014-01-01

Many future energy and emission scenarios envisage an increase of bio-energy in the global primary energy mix. In most climate impact assessment models and policies, bio-energy systems are assumed to be carbon neutral, thus ignoring the time lag between CO 2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO 2 uptake by vegetation. Here, we show that the temperature peak caused by CO 2 emissions from bio-energy is proportional to the maximum rate at which emissions occur and is almost insensitive to cumulative emissions. Whereas the carbon-climate response (CCR) to fossil fuel emissions is approximately constant, the CCR to bio-energy emissions depends on time, biomass turnover times, and emission scenarios. The linearity between temperature peak and bio-energy CO 2 emission rates resembles the characteristic of the temperature response to short-lived climate forcers. As for the latter, the timing of CO 2 emissions from bio-energy matters. Under the international agreement to limit global warming to 2 C by 2100, early emissions from bio-energy thus have smaller contributions on the targeted temperature than emissions postponed later into the future, especially when bio-energy is sourced from biomass with medium (50-60 years) or long turnover times (100 years). (authors)

Biofuels, vehicle emissions, and urban air quality.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallington, Timothy J; Anderson, James E; Kurtz, Eric M; Tennison, Paul J

2016-07-18

Increased biofuel content in automotive fuels impacts vehicle tailpipe emissions via two mechanisms: fuel chemistry and engine calibration. Fuel chemistry effects are generally well recognized, while engine calibration effects are not. It is important that investigations of the impact of biofuels on vehicle emissions consider the impact of engine calibration effects and are conducted using vehicles designed to operate using such fuels. We report the results of emission measurements from a Ford F-350 fueled with either fossil diesel or a biodiesel surrogate (butyl nonanoate) and demonstrate the critical influence of engine calibration on NOx emissions. Using the production calibration the emissions of NOx were higher with the biodiesel fuel. Using an adjusted calibration (maintaining equivalent exhaust oxygen concentration to that of the fossil diesel at the same conditions by adjusting injected fuel quantities) the emissions of NOx were unchanged, or lower, with biodiesel fuel. For ethanol, a review of the literature data addressing the impact of ethanol blend levels (E0-E85) on emissions from gasoline light-duty vehicles in the U.S. is presented. The available data suggest that emissions of NOx, non-methane hydrocarbons, particulate matter (PM), and mobile source air toxics (compounds known, or suspected, to cause serious health impacts) from modern gasoline and diesel vehicles are not adversely affected by increased biofuel content over the range for which the vehicles are designed to operate. Future increases in biofuel content when accomplished in concert with changes in engine design and calibration for new vehicles should not result in problematic increases in emissions impacting urban air quality and may in fact facilitate future required emissions reductions. A systems perspective (fuel and vehicle) is needed to fully understand, and optimize, the benefits of biofuels when blended into gasoline and diesel.

Characteristics of On-road Diesel Vehicles: Black Carbon Emissions in Chinese Cities Based on Portable Emissions Measurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Xuan; Wu, Ye; Jiang, Jingkun; Zhang, Shaojun; Liu, Huan; Song, Shaojie; Li, Zhenhua; Fan, Xiaoxiao; Fu, Lixin; Hao, Jiming

2015-11-17

Black carbon (BC) emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) are rarely continuously measured using portable emission measurement systems (PEMSs). In this study, we utilize a PEMS to obtain real-world BC emission profiles for 25 HDDVs in China. The average fuel-based BC emissions of HDDVs certified according to Euro II, III, IV, and V standards are 2224 ± 251, 612 ± 740, 453 ± 584, and 152 ± 3 mg kg(-1), respectively. Notably, HDDVs adopting mechanical pump engines had significantly higher BC emissions than those equipped with electronic injection engines. Applying the useful features of PEMSs, we can relate instantaneous BC emissions to driving conditions using an operating mode binning methodology, and the average emission rates for Euro II to Euro IV diesel trucks can be constructed. From a macroscopic perspective, we observe that average speed is a significant factor affecting BC emissions and is well correlated with distance-based emissions (R(2) = 0.71). Therefore, the average fuel-based and distance-based BC emissions on congested roads are 40 and 125% higher than those on freeways. These results should be taken into consideration in future emission inventory studies.

Historical emissions critical for mapping decarbonization pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Majkut, J.; Kopp, R. E.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-12-01

Policymakers have set a goal of limiting temperature increase from human influence on the climate. This motivates the identification of decarbonization pathways to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2. In this context, the future behavior of CO2 sources and sinks define the CO2 emissions necessary to meet warming thresholds with specified probabilities. We adopt a simple model of the atmosphere-land-ocean carbon balance to reflect uncertainty in how natural CO2 sinks will respond to increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperature. Bayesian inversion is used to estimate the probability distributions of selected parameters of the carbon model. Prior probability distributions are chosen to reflect the behavior of CMIP5 models. We then update these prior distributions by running historical simulations of the global carbon cycle and inverting with observationally-based inventories and fluxes of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean and atmosphere. The result is a best-estimate of historical CO2 sources and sinks and a model of how CO2 sources and sinks will vary in the future under various emissions scenarios, with uncertainty. By linking the carbon model to a simple climate model, we calculate emissions pathways and carbon budgets consistent with meeting specific temperature thresholds and identify key factors that contribute to remaining uncertainty. In particular, we show how the assumed history of CO2 emissions from land use change (LUC) critically impacts estimates of the strength of the land CO2 sink via CO2 fertilization. Different estimates of historical LUC emissions taken from the literature lead to significantly different parameterizations of the carbon system. High historical CO2 emissions from LUC lead to a more robust CO2 fertilization effect, significantly lower future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and an increased amount of CO2 that can be emitted to satisfy temperature stabilization targets. Thus, in our model, historical LUC emissions have a

Emission projections of the transport Sector in China: 2015-2040

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, L.

2016-12-01

Driven by the significant growth freight and passenger transport demand, transport sector has become a sector that is largely responsible for increases in emissions of atmospheric pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, PM2.5) in China. Figuring out the emission trend in China's transport sector has great influence on formulating emission reduction measures in the future. In this work, both on-road and off-road transport emissions in China were estimated from 2015 to 2040 for CO, NOx, HC and PM2.5. The projection was conducted based on on the energy consumption structure forecast from IEA (International Energy Agency), the future national average annual distance traveled per vehicle and fuel consumption per distance derived from simulation results of the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impact (FEEI) model. The results show that the ownership of on-road vehicles in China increases rapidly during 2015 to 2030 and then the growth slows down. Finally, the total amount reaches up to 522 million in 2040 in which 84.5% turns out to be light-duty vehicles. Because current control legislations for the transport sector in China will continue to be strengthened in the future, the total emissions of China's transport sector were projected to peak around 2030, due to the improvement of vehicle emission standard and the retirement of old vehicles are the most effective measures. The off-road transport will become the main contributor to emissions from transport sector in China since 2030. This work provides a new perspective to understand emissions from both on-road and off-road transport in China, which can support the achievement of improving air quality promised by the Chinese government. This work provides a new perspective to understand the emission trends of on-road and off-road transport sector in China from 2015 to 2040, which can support the achievement of the air quality goal promised by the Chinese government. Driven by the significant growth freight and passenger transport demand

A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

Science.gov (United States)

Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Drought impact on Quercus pubescens Willd. isoprene emissions over the Mediterranean area: what future?

Science.gov (United States)

Cyrielle Genard-Zielinski, Anne; Boissard, Christophe; Ormeño, Elena; Lathière, Juliette; Guenet, Bertrand; Gauquelin, Thierry; Fernandez, Catherine

2015-04-01

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) released by plants mostly originate from their secondary metabolism. Their emissions are modulated, in terms of intensity and molecule diversity, by environmental conditions. Among BVOCs, isoprene has been especially studied due to its high emission fluxes and its contribution to tropospheric photochemistry, both in the gaseous and particulate phases. However, the way isoprene emissions are impacted by some abiotic factors, especially water stress, is still under debate. In a world facing climatic changes, global climate models expect air temperature and drought intensity to strengthen in the Mediterranean area by 2100. Our work focuses on the impact of water stress on isoprene emissions (ERiso) from Quercus pubescens Willd. This species covers large areas of the Mediterranean area where it appears to be the main isoprene emitter. An in situ experimentation was performed at the O3HP (Oak Observatory at OHP, southern France) in a pubescent oak forest with trees adapted to long lasting stress periods. We investigated during a whole seasonal cycle (from June 2012 to June 2013) the course of ERiso under both natural water stress (control treatment: C) and intensified water stress (stress treatment: S) by artificially reducing rain by 30% using a specific rain exclusion device. Restricted rain did not modify either the net CO2 assimilation or ERiso during the whole season. However, isoprene emission factors (Is) for trees under S were significantly higher (a factor of ˜ 2) than for trees growing under C in August (137.8 compared to 75.3 μgC.gDM-1.h-1 respectively) and September (75.3 compared to 40.2 μgC.gDM-1.h-1 respectively). Based on our experimental emission database, an appropriate isoprene emission algorithm (GZ2014) was developed using a statistic approach (an artificial neural network). Using ambient and edaphic environmental parameters integrated over up to 3 weeks, GZ2014 was found to represent more than 80% of

Investigating the Impact of Past and Future CO2 Emissions on the Distribution of Radiocarbon in the Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Khatiwala, S.; Payne, S.; Graven, H. D.; Heimbach, P.

2015-12-01

The ocean is a significant sink for carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. This has implications not only for climate but also for the chemical and isotopic composition of the ocean. Human activities have increased the ocean radiocarbon content through nuclear bomb tests in the 1950s-60s, which released a large amount of radiocarbon (14C) into the atmosphere, but fossil fuel emissions are decreasing the radiocarbon content through the release of 14C-depleted CO2. Here, we use the ECCO-v4 ocean state estimate to examine the changing nature of the air-sea flux of radiocarbon and its spatial distribution in the ocean in response to past and future CO2 emissions, the latter taken from the the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) database used in IPCC simulations. In line with previous studies we find that the large air-sea gradient of 14C induced by nuclear bomb testing led to rapid accumulation of radiocarbon in the surface ocean. Surface fluxes of 14C have considerably weakened over the past several decades and in some areas 14C is being returned to the atmosphere. As fossil fuel emissions continue to reduce the atmospheric 14C/C ratio (Δ14C), in most RCP scenarios the total ocean 14C inventory starts decreasing by 2030. With strong emissions, the Δ14C of surface waters is driven to increasingly negative values and in RCP 8.5 by 2100 much of the surface ocean has apparent radiocarbon ages in excess of 2000 years, with subtropical gyres more depleted in 14C than the Southern Ocean. Surface waters become significantly more negative in Δ14C than underlying waters. As a result, turning conventional tracer oceanography on its head, recently ventilated waters are characterized by more negative Δ14C values. Similar patterns can be expected for CFCs in the ocean as atmospheric concentrations decrease over the next several decades. Our results have a number of implications, notably for

Energy Sources Management and Future Automotive Technologies: Environmental Impact

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florin Mariasiu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the environmental impact created through the introduction of introducing new technologies in transportation domain. New electric vehicles are considered zero-emission vehicles (ZEV. However, electricity produced in power plants is still predominantly based on fossil fuel usage (required for recharge electric vehicle batteries and thus directly affects the quantity of pollutant emissions and greenhouse gases (CO2, NOx and SOx. Given the structure of EU-wide energy sources used for electricity generation, the potential pollutant emissions stemming from these energy sources, related to energy consumption of an electric vehicle, was determined under the projected environmental impact of specific market penetration of electric vehicles. In addition to the overall impact at the EU level, were identified the countries for which the use of electric vehicles is (or not feasible in terms of reaching the lower values ​​of future emissions compared to the present and future European standards.

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2015-11-01

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.

Transportation Emissions: some basics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.

2016-01-01

transportation and especially carbon dioxide emissions are at the center stage of discussion by the world community through various international treaties, such as the Kyoto Protocol. The transportation sector also emits non-CO2 pollutants that have important effects on air quality, climate, and public health......Transportation is the backbone of international trade and a key engine driving globalization. However, there is growing concern that the Earth’s atmospheric composition is being altered by human activities, including transportation, which can lead to climate change. Air pollution from....... The main purpose of this chapter is to introduce some basic concepts that are relevant in the quest of green transportation logistics. First, we present the basics of estimating emissions from transportation activities, the current statistics and future trends, as well as the total impact of air emissions...

Telecommunications energy and greenhouse gas emissions management for future network growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Chien Aun; Gygax, André F.; Leckie, Christopher; Wong, Elaine; Nirmalathas, Ampalavanapillai; Hinton, Kerry

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Model to evaluate key interdependencies of a fast growing telecommunications network. • Network growth analysis using real data and Monte Carlo simulation. • Importance of both operational and embodied energy efficiency improvements. • Embodied energy expected to dominate in the future under current energy efficiency trends. • Carbon footprint and energy management through optimum network replacement cycle. - Abstract: A key aspect of greener network deployment is how to achieve sustainable growth of a telecommunications network, both in terms of operational and embodied energy. Hence, in this paper we investigate how the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a fast growing telecommunications network can be minimized. Due to the complexities in modeling the embodied energy of networks, this aspect of energy consumption has received limited attention by network operators. Here, we present the first model to evaluate the interdependencies of the four main contributing factors in managing the sustainable growth of a telecommunications network: (i) the network’s operational energy consumption; (ii) the embodied energy of network equipment; (iii) network traffic growth; and (iv) the expected energy efficiency improvements in both the operational and embodied phases. Using Monte Carlo techniques with real network data, our results demonstrate that under the current trends in overall energy efficiency improvements the network embodied energy will account for over 40% of the total network energy in 2025 compared to 20% in 2015. Further, we find that the optimum equipment replacement cycle, which will result in the lowest total network life cycle energy, is directly dependent on the technological progress in energy efficiency improvements of both operational and embodied phases. Our model and analysis highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to better understand the interactions between network growth, technological

Understanding Emissions in East Asia - The KORUS 2015 Emissions Inventory

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, J. H.; Kim, Y.; Park, R.; Choi, Y.; Simpson, I. J.; Emmons, L. K.; Streets, D. G.

2017-12-01

The air quality over Northeast Asia have been deteriorated for decades due to high population and energy use in the region. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse sometimes. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are much higher to effectively protect public health and ecosystems. Two aircraft filed campaigns targeting year 2016, MAPS-Seoul and KORUS-AQ, have been organized to study the air quality of over Korea and East Asia relating to chemical evolution, emission inventories, trans-boundary contribution, and satellite application. We developed a new East-Asia emissions inventory, named KORUS2015, based on NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment), in support of the filed campaigns. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, and PM2.5. Since the KORUS2015 emissions framework was developed using the integrated climate and air quality assessment modeling framework (i.e. GAINS) and is fully connected with the comprehensive emission processing/modeling systems (i.e. SMOKE, KU-EPS, and MEGAN), it can be effectively used to support atmospheric field campaigns for science and policy. During the field campaigns, we are providing modeling emissions inventory to participating air quality models, such as CMAQ, WRF-Chem, CAMx, GEOS-Chem, MOZART, for forecasting and post-analysis modes. Based on initial assessment of those results, we are improving our emissions, such as VOC speciation, biogenic VOCs modeling. From the 2nditeration between emissions and modeling/measurement, further analysis results will be presented at the conference. Acknowledgements : This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Climate Change

Emissions of nitrogen oxides from road traffic - regulations, emissions and effects; Vagtrafikens utslaepp av kvaeveoxider - reglering, utslaepp och effekter

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sjoedin, Aake; Pihl-Karlsson, Gunilla; Johansson, Manne [Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Goeteborg (Sweden); Forsberg, Bertil [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Public Health and Clinical Medicine; Ahlvik, Peter [Ecotraffic ERD3 AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Erlandsson, Lennart [AVL MTC AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2004-10-01

The report is a review that aims to improve the basis for additional measures against the road traffic emissions of, in particular, NO{sub x}. An important question in the context is whether health effects of NO{sub 2} should serve as a norm for the actions for emission reductions of NO{sub x}, or if the environmental effects of NO{sub x}-emissions in the form of acidification, eutrophication and ozone should play this role. WHO notes, in its latest review of health effect research, that one cannot demonstrate that NO{sub 2} alone has any direct effects in concentrations at the current whole-year mean norm (40 {mu}g/m{sup 3}). Such health effects that has been demonstrated in epidemiologic studies at these concentrations are caused by other traffic related emissions (e. g. particles) for which NO{sub 2} constitutes a good indicator. WHO indicates the need for additional sharpening of the norms for ozone and particles. In this context, it is important to note that emissions of NO{sub x} on a regional scale contributes to formation of ozone as well as particles. Therefore there exist reasons to decrease the emissions of NO{sub x} in order to reach future recommended values for ozone and particles emissions. In the evaluations that will be done during 2004-2005 of the so called Goeteborg protocol, the EU's Ceiling Directives and the CAFE-programme, it is expected that new emissions objective for NO{sub x} will be suggested for 2015-2020, to cope with health and environment objectives in Europe. The report shows that that development that currently happens within the vehicle industry, for engines and exhaust emission control system are pursued to meet future exhaust requirement in the USA gives good conditions for the road traffic sector to contribute to that these objectives will reached.

Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brogan, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Aeppli, A. E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, D. F. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); McKenzie, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Witzke, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

2013-03-01

Freight transportation modes—truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline—each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larson, L.G.; Palsson, A. [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

1997-12-31

The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larson, L G; Palsson, A [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

1998-12-31

The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

Historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

Science.gov (United States)

Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang; Klimont, Zbigniew; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Pitkanen, Tyler; Seibert, Jonathan J.; Vu, Linh; Andres, Robert J.; Bolt, Ryan M.; Bond, Tami C.; Dawidowski, Laura; Kholod, Nazar; Kurokawa, June-ichi; Li, Meng; Liu, Liang; Lu, Zifeng; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; O'Rourke, Patrick R.; Zhang, Qiang

2018-01-01

We present a new data set of annual historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon - BC, and organic carbon - OC), and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

The value of advanced technology in meeting 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kyle, Page; Clarke, Leon; Pugh, Graham; Wise, Marshall; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James; Kim, Son

2009-01-01

This paper, a contribution to the EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios, examines the relationship between technology evolution over the next 40 years and the cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions consequences of possible U.S. mitigation goals. The paper explores these issues within the context of cumulative emissions targets based on linear reductions in CO 2 -e emissions of 50% and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Six technology futures were constructed within the MiniCAM integrated assessment model and then applied to the emissions targets. The paper explores the influence of technology availability and expectations of future technology availability on the economic consequences of emissions mitigation, on the time path of emissions mitigation, and on the evolution of the U.S. energy system over time. One of the strongest themes to emerge from the scenarios in this study is that near-term decision-making depends on the availability of technology decades into the future, when deep emissions reductions are required to meet the cumulative emissions goals. In the scenarios in this paper, it is the expectations about future technology that have the most dramatic effect on greenhouse gas emissions prices and emissions reductions in 2020, as opposed to near-term technology availability. Moreover, it is the nature of technology 20, 30, and 40 years out, rather than availability and deployment of technology in the next decade, that will largely determine the character of the mid-century energy system.

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla

2013-01-01

Abstract. We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions in regional-scale chemistry transport models (CTMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs). The method is based on the meteorology in the models and gridded inventories. We use...... to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections....... Finally, the climate penalty on ammonia emissions should be taken into account at the policy level such as the NEC and IPPC directives....

Cost-effective control of SO2 emissions in Asia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cofala, J.; Amann, M.; Gyarfas, F.; Schoepp, F.; Boudri, J.C.; Hordijk, L.; Kroeze, C.; Li Junfeng,; Dai Lin, D.; Panwar, T.S.; Gupta, S.

2004-01-01

Despite recent efforts to limit the growth of SO2 emissions in Asia, the negative environmental effects of sulphur emissions are likely to further increase in the future. This paper presents an extension of the RAINS-Asia integrated assessment model for acidification in Asia with an optimisation

GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

2016-04-01

India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

Dynamics of the oil transition: Modeling capacity, depletion, and emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brandt, Adam R.; Plevin, Richard J.; Farrell, Alexander E.

2010-01-01

The global petroleum system is undergoing a shift to substitutes for conventional petroleum (SCPs). The Regional Optimization Model for Emissions from Oil Substitutes, or ROMEO, models this oil transition and its greenhouse gas impacts. ROMEO models the global liquid fuel market in an economic optimization framework, but in contrast to other models it solves each model year sequentially, with investment and production optimized under uncertainty about future prevailing prices or resource quantities. ROMEO includes more hydrocarbon resource types than integrated assessment models of climate change. ROMEO also includes the carbon intensities and costs of production of these resources. We use ROMEO to explore the uncertainty of future costs, emissions, and total fuel production under a number of scenarios. We perform sensitivity analysis on the endowment of conventional petroleum and future carbon taxes. Results show incremental emissions from production of oil substitutes of ∼ 0-30 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon over the next 50 years (depending on the carbon tax). Also, demand reductions due to the higher cost of SCPs could reduce or eliminate these increases. Calculated emissions are highly sensitive to the endowment of conventional oil and less sensitive to a carbon tax.

How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

Science.gov (United States)

Reisinger, Andy; Clark, Harry

2018-04-01

Agriculture directly contributes about 10%-12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO 2 . Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions now and in future, and to CO 2 from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO 2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO 2 livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO 2 emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal. © 2017 John

Consequences of new scientific findings for future abatement of ammonia emissions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Erisman, J.W.; Monteny, G.J.

1998-01-01

Several studies have shown that the estimated decreases in emissions of ammonia in the Netherlands are overestimated. Results obtained from recent research on the so-called compensation point of ammonia in intensive farming areas, research in areas affected with swine fever, and research on

Cathode R&D for Future Light Sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowell, D.H.; /SLAC; Bazarov, I.; Dunham, B.; /Cornell U., CLASSE; Harkay, K.; /Argonne; Hernandez-Garcia; /Jefferson Lab; Legg, R.; /Wisconsin U., SRC; Padmore, H.; /LBL, Berkeley; Rao, T.; Smedley, J.; /Brookhaven; Wan, W.; /LBL, Berkeley

2010-05-26

This paper reviews the requirements and current status of cathodes for accelerator applications, and proposes a research and development plan for advancing cathode technology. Accelerator cathodes need to have long operational lifetimes and produce electron beams with a very low emittance. The two principal emission processes to be considered are thermionic and photoemission with the photocathodes being further subdivided into metal and semi-conductors. Field emission cathodes are not included in this analysis. The thermal emittance is derived and the formulas used to compare the various cathode materials. To date, there is no cathode which provides all the requirements needed for the proposed future light sources. Therefore a three part research plan is described to develop cathodes for these future light source applications.

Innovations in projecting emissions for air quality modeling ...

Science.gov (United States)

Air quality modeling is used in setting air quality standards and in evaluating their costs and benefits. Historically, modeling applications have projected emissions and the resulting air quality only 5 to 10 years into the future. Recognition that the choice of air quality management strategy has climate change implications is encouraging longer modeling time horizons. However, for multi-decadal time horizons, many questions about future conditions arise. For example, will current population, economic, and land use trends continue, or will we see shifts that may alter the spatial and temporal pattern of emissions? Similarly, will technologies such as building-integrated solar photovoltaics, battery storage, electric vehicles, and CO2 capture emerge as disruptive technologies - shifting how we produce and use energy - or will these technologies achieve only niche markets and have little impact? These are some of the questions that are being evaluated by researchers within the U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development. In this presentation, Dr. Loughlin will describe a range of analytical approaches that are being explored. These include: (i) the development of alternative scenarios of the future that can be used to evaluate candidate management strategies over wide-ranging conditions, (ii) the application of energy system models to project emissions decades into the future and to assess the environmental implications of new technologies, (iii) and methodo

Future premature mortality due to O3, secondary inorganic aerosols and primary PM in Europe--sensitivity to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, population and building stock.

Science.gov (United States)

Geels, Camilla; Andersson, Camilla; Hänninen, Otto; Lansø, Anne Sofie; Schwarze, Per E; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-03-04

Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000-2009, 2050-2059 and 2080-2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

Positron emission tomography in oncology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1988-01-01

This report describes the current and potential uses of positron emission tomography in clinical medicine and research related to oncology. Assessment will be possible of metabolism and physiology of tumors and their effects on adjacent tissues. Specific probes are likely to be developed for target sites on tumors, including monoclonal antibodies and specific growth factors that recognize tumors. To date, most oncological applications of positron emission tomography tracers have been qualitative; in the future, quantitative metabolic measurements should aid in the evaluation of tumor biology and response to treatment

The future of the SIRAD SEE facility Ion-Electron Emission Microscopy

CERN Document Server

Wyss, J; Kaminski, A; Magalini, A; Nigro, M; Pantano, D; Sedhykh, S

2002-01-01

The SIRAD facility is dedicated to radiation damage studies on semiconductor detectors, electronic devices and systems, using proton and ion beams delivered by a 15 MV tandem accelerator. It is routinely used by groups involved in detector development for elementary particle physics, electronic device physics and space applications. In particular, Single Event Effect studies are very important to the latter two activities. Presently, the facility can only characterize the global sensitivity of a device or system to single ion impacts. To map out the sensitivity of a device with micrometric resolution, following an idea developed at SANDIA, we will implement an Ion-Electron Emission Microscope (IEEM) to reconstruct the X,Y and time coordinates of an impacting energetic ion by imaging the secondary electrons emitted by the sample using a standard emission electron microscope and position sensitive detector system. After describing typical Single Event Effect activities at SIRAD we will discuss the basic princip...

PM, NOx and butane emissions from on-road vehicle fleets in Hong Kong and their implications on emission control policy

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Zhi; Wubulihairen, Maimaitireyimu; Yang, Fenhuan

2012-12-01

Vehicular emissions are the major sources of air pollution in urban areas. For metropolitan cities with large population working and living in environments with direct traffic impact, emission control is of great significance to protect public health. Implementation of more stringent emission standards, retrofitting fleet with emission control devices and switching to clearer fuel has been commonly practiced in different cities including Hong Kong. The present study employed a new plume chasing method for effective and quick evaluation of on-road fleet emission factors of particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and butane from heavy duty diesel trucks, diesel buses and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) vehicles. The results showed distinct profiles of the emissions from different fleets with excessive butane emissions from LPG fleet and contrasting PM and NOx emissions from diesel trucks and buses fleets. A cross comparison was also made with emission data from other cities and from historic local studies. The implications of the observed difference on the effectiveness of emission control measures and policy are discussed with recommendations of direction for future research and policy making.

Marine eutrophication impacts from present and future production of spring barley

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Niero, Monia

2015-01-01

Environmental emissions of nitrogen (N) from agriculture surplus may enrich coastal waters and trigger marine eutrophication impacts. We estimated these impacts for spring barley production in Denmark, under present and future climatic conditions with double carbon dioxide concentration and 5 °C...... increase. Characterised emissions of airborne (NH3 and NOx) and waterborne (NO3-) forms result in an endpoint impact of 2.35*10-12 (North Sea) and 8.47*10-12 species.yr (Baltic Sea) under present conditions per kg spring barley produced. The future scenario shows 67% increase on both spatial units. Spatial...... to hypoxia under future pressures may alter the impacts assessment....

Evaluating policy-relevant emission inventories for transportation and electricity (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Bickford, E. E.

2013-12-01

We explore the challenges and opportunities in evaluating bottom-up emission inventories for transportation and electricity. These anthropogenic emissions respond in complex ways to technology and activity changes. Thus, it is essential that inventories capture historic emissions consistent with observations, as well as future emissions consistent with policy scenarios. For transportation, we focus on freight-related trucking emissions, represented by the Wisconsin Inventory for Freight Emissions (WIFE), developed with activity data from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration Freight Analysis Framework and emission factors from the EPA MOVES model. Because WIFE is linked to commodity flows and roadway speeds, it offers a useful data set to evaluate policy changes such as truck-to-rail modal shifts and alternative fuel choices. However, the value of the inventory in assessing these scenarios depends on its skill in calculating frieght-related emissions. Satellite data of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from the OMI instrument aboard the NASA Aura satellite is used to evaluate truck and rail NOx emissions, especially on rural highways away from ground-based monitors. For electricity, we use the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and power generation in response to policy and technology changes. These include renewable portfolio standards, conservation, increased natural gas, and response to building demand. To evaluate MyPower, we compare with the Clean Air Markets database, and 2007 calculated daily afternoon emissions with satellite-derived NO2 from OMI. Drawing on the results of these studies, we discuss strategies to meet the information demands of both historically correct air quality inputs and future-relevant policy scenarios.

Greenhouse gas emissions related to agriculture and land-use practices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, L.M.; Lashof, D.A.

1990-01-01

This paper reports on the effects of increasing trace gas concentrations and concomitant climate change on agriculture which are likely to be substantial. With cropland and pasture now covering 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O. Land clearing for agriculture and other purposes is responsible for 10 to 30% of total net CO 2 emissions; the rest is due to fossil fuel combustion. In addition, intentional burning of agricultural wastes, grasslands, and forests makes a significant contribution to global emissions of CO, CH 4 , NO x and N 2 O. Methane emissions from anaerobic respiration in rice (Oryza sativa L.) paddies and domestic animal remains account for 30 to 50% of the global total, making agriculture the dominant anthropogenic source of this gas. The amount of N 2 O emitted as a result of N fertilizer applications is highly uncertain, but may be on the order of 10% of total N 2 O emissions. Future agricultural greenhouse gas emissions will be affected by population growth, economic development, and agricultural practices. Greenhouse gas emissions are likely to increase substantially in the future unless steps are taken to control them. Investigating potential approaches to reducing these emissions while expanding production presents a major challenge to the agricultural research community

Historical (1750–2014 anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. M. Hoesly

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014 anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs, carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC, and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS. We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

Control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 2050: A calculation on the emission rights of different countries

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2009-01-01

This paper is to provide quantitative data on some critical issues in anticipation of the forthcoming international negotiations in Denmark on the control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Instead of letting only a small number of countries dominate a few controversial dialogues about emissions reductions, a comprehensive global system must be established based on emissions allowances for different countries, to realize the long-term goal of controlling global atmospheric CO2 concentrations. That a system rooted in "cumulative emissions per capita," the best conception of the "common but differentiated responsibilities" principle affirmed by the Kyoto Protocol according to fundamental standards of fairness and justice, was demonstrated. Based on calculations of various countries’ cumulative emissions per capita, estimates of their cumulative emissions from 1900 to 2005, and their annual emissions allowances into the future (2006―2050), a 470 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration target was set. According to the following four objective indicators―total emissions allowance from 1900 to 2050, actual emissions from 1900 to 2005, emissions levels in 2005, and the average growth rate of emissions from 1996 to 2005―all countries and regions whose population was more than 300000 in 2005 were divided into four main groups: countries with emissions deficits, countries and regions needing to reduce their gross emissions, countries and regions needing to reduce their emissions growth rates, and countries that can maintain the current emissions growth rates. Based on this proposal, most G8 countries by 2005 had already expended their 2050 emissions allowances. The accu-mulated financial value based on emissions has reached more than 5.5 trillion US dollars (20 dollars per ton of CO2). Even if these countries could achieve their ambitious emissions reduction targets in the future, their per capita emissions from 2006 to 2050 would still be much higher than those of

Managing CO2 emissions in Nigeria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obioh, I.B.; Oluwole, A.F.; Akeredolu, F.A.

1994-01-01

The energy resources in Nigeria are nearly equally divided between fossil fuels and biofuels. The increasing pressure on them, following expected increased population growth, may lead to substantial emissions of carbon into the atmosphere. Additionally agricultural and forestry management practices in vogue are those related to savannah burning and rotational bush fallow systems, which have been clearly implicated as important sources of CO 2 and trace gases. An integrated model for the prediction of future CO 2 emissions based on fossil fuels and biomass fuels requirements, rates of deforestation and other land-use indices is presented. This is further based on trends in population and economic growth up to the year 2025, with a base year in 1988. A coupled carbon cycle-climate model based on the contribution of CO 2 and other trace gases is established from the proportions of integrated global warming effects for a 20-year averaging time using the product of global warming potential (GWP) and total emissions. An energy-technology inventory approach to optimal resources management is used as a tool for establishing the future scope of reducing the CO 2 emissions through improved fossil fuel energy efficiencies. Scenarios for reduction based on gradual to swift shifts from biomass to fossil and renewable fuels are presented together with expected policy options required to effect them

ECO2, Emissions Trading Services, development project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruokonen, A.

2006-01-01

Emissions Trading started within EU at the beginning of 2005. It caused substantial changes to the business environment of energy companies and energy intensive industry. The planning of Emissions Trading is a complicated process and companies will need consulting, IT systems and other services. Emissions Trading introduces a new factor of production emission allowances, which are tradable commodities. In future, Emissions Trading emissions, emission allowances and the prices of emission allowances have to be considered during the fuel purchasing and the energy production planning. And the best possible knowledge of the own emissions balance and market situation has a monetary value when trading emission allowances. Allocation of emission allowances has done in each country according to National Allocation Plan (NAP), accepted by EU. Finland itself and thus also the Finnish companies will be net buyers of emission allowances in long run. That means commonly that the Finnish companies have to buy more allowances meaning some extra costs to the companies. That's why it is very important to develop and provide to the companies an innovatory emissions planning, follow-up, management and reporting systems. With good emission balance management the extra costs of Emissions Trading will be as low as possible. In ECO2 project, Empower together with Power-Deriva, developed Expert services, Emissions Balance Management and Reporting services and Risk Management services for Emissions Trading and needed software and tools for these services. (orig.)

Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

2015-01-01

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

Science.gov (United States)

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

Committed CO2 Emissions of China's Coal-fired Power Plants

Science.gov (United States)

Suqin, J.

2016-12-01

The extent of global warming is determined by the cumulative effects of CO2 in the atmosphere. Coal-fired power plants, the largest anthropogenic source of CO2 emissions, produce large amount of CO2 emissions during their lifetimes of operation (committed emissions), which thus influence the future carbon emission space under specific targets on mitigating climate change (e.g., the 2 degree warming limit relative to pre-industrial levels). Comprehensive understanding of committed CO2 emissions for coal-fired power generators is urgently needed in mitigating global climate change, especially in China, the largest global CO2emitter. We calculated China's committed CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generators installed during 1993-2013 and evaluated their impact on future emission spaces at the provincial level, by using local specific data on the newly installed capacities. The committed CO2 emissions are calculated as the product of the annual coal consumption from newly installed capacities, emission factors (CO2emissions per unit crude coal consumption) and expected lifetimes. The sensitivities about generators lifetimes and the drivers on provincial committed emissions are also analyzed. Our results show that these relatively recently installed coal-fired power generators will lead to 106 Gt of CO2 emissions over the course of their lifetimes, which is more than three times the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2010. More than 80% (85 Gt) of their total committed CO2 will be emitted after 2013, which are referred to as the remaining emissions. Due to the uncertainties of generators lifetime, these remaining emissions would increase by 45 Gt if the lifetimes of China's coal-fired power generators were prolonged by 15 years. Furthermore, the remaining emissions are very different among various provinces owing to local developments and policy disparities. Provinces with large amounts of secondary industry and abundant coal reserves have higher committed

Novel Fiber-Optic Ring Acoustic Emission Sensor.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Peng; Han, Xiaole; Xia, Dong; Liu, Taolin; Lang, Hao

2018-01-13

Acoustic emission technology has been applied to many fields for many years. However, the conventional piezoelectric acoustic emission sensors cannot be used in extreme environments, such as those with heavy electromagnetic interference, high pressure, or strong corrosion. In this paper, a novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor is proposed. The sensor exhibits high sensitivity, anti-electromagnetic interference, and corrosion resistance. First, the principle of a novel fiber-optic ring sensor is introduced. Different from piezoelectric and other fiber acoustic emission sensors, this novel sensor includes both a sensing skeleton and a sensing fiber. Second, a heterodyne interferometric demodulating method is presented. In addition, a fiber-optic ring sensor acoustic emission system is built based on this method. Finally, fiber-optic ring acoustic emission experiments are performed. The novel fiber-optic ring sensor is glued onto the surface of an aluminum plate. The 150 kHz standard continuous sinusoidal signals and broken lead signals are successfully detected by the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In addition, comparison to the piezoelectric acoustic emission sensor is performed, which shows the availability and reliability of the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In the future, this novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor will provide a new route to acoustic emission detection in harsh environments.

Decomposition of CO2 Emission Factors in Baoding

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wei; Wang, xuyang; Zhang, Hongzhi

2018-01-01

Baoding, as one of the first “five provinces and eight cities” low carbon pilot cities, undertakes an important task and mission. The urgent task is to explore a peak route and emission reduction path suitable for Baoding’s own development, so as to provide reference for the construction of low-carbon pilot cities. At present, the carbon emissions of Baoding city and its subordinate districts and counties are not clear, and the carbon emissions, change trends and emission characteristics of various industries have not been systematically studied. This lead researcherscan not carry out further attribution analysis, the prediction of future emissions trends and put forward specific measures to reduce emissions are impossible.If the government can not accurately and comprehensively understand the problems faced in the construction and development of low-carbon cities, it is difficult to fundamentally put forward effective emission reduction policies and measures.

Fifty years of fuel quality and vehicle emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rose, K. [CONCAWE, Brussels (Belgium)

2013-04-01

In the late 1970s, with growing emphasis on urban air quality in Europe, CONCAWE embarked on new research related to fuels and vehicles. After only a few years, it became clear that fuel properties and specifications would be increasingly important to the future of the European refining industry, and considerable research was completed in the 1970s to better understand the impact of fuel composition on vehicle performance and emissions. This early work led to the formation of the first Fuels and Emissions Management Group (FEMG) in 1982, almost 20 years after the formation of the CONCAWE Association. Since these early days, FEMG has been responsible for ensuring CONCAWE's strategic outlook on future vehicle and fuel developments, monitoring regulatory and vehicle developments, and overseeing a diverse portfolio of fuel quality and vehicle emissions research. Since the 1980s, tremendous progress has been made in improving European air quality, in part by reducing emissions from road transport and other sectors, and major improvements in European fuel qualities have contributed to these reductions. Nevertheless, many challenges are still ahead, especially further reductions in pollutant emissions from vehicles while also reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. In the near-term, these GHG reductions will largely come from improvements in engine and vehicle fuel consumption and by blending of GHG-reducing bio-blending components. Dealing with these challenges to fuel quality and performance will require a continuing focus on CONCAWE's founding principles: sound science, cost effectiveness and transparency.

Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

Science.gov (United States)

Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

2018-03-01

The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brogan, J. J.; Aeppli, A. E.; Beagan, D. F.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Grenzeback, L. R.; McKenzie, E.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Witzke, E.

2013-03-01

Truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. The current allocation of freight by mode is the product of technologic, economic, and regulatory frameworks, and a variety of factors -- price, speed, reliability, accessibility, visibility, security, and safety -- influence mode. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this report considers how analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt shifts to energy-efficient, low-emission modes. There are substantial opportunities to reduce the energy used for freight transportation, but it will be difficult to shift large volumes from one mode to another without imposing considerable additional costs on businesses and consumers. This report explores federal government actions that could help trigger the shifts in modal shares needed to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Profile of emissions reduction options in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luetken, S.E.; Bertule, M.; Ipsen Hansen, J.; Karavai, M.; Sandbukt, S.; Staun, F.; Wieben, E.

2013-06-15

A second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol has just started. International climate negotiations consistently keep new market based approaches on the agenda. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions are rapidly rising as a new signature concept for a future climate treaty. In response to this momentum, many countries still find themselves in search of concrete emissions reduction options. UNEP Risoe, with the support of the UNFCCC Secretariat and the ACP-MEA Programme, has decided to assess the emissions reduction potential in 15 diverse countries. While most of these countries are not seen as obvious targets for emissions reduction activities, they are nevertheless likely to be involved in some form of future emissions reduction. Consequently, 15 country reports have been developed, from which this synthesis report gathers the main messages. The overall assessments of the potential emissions reduction in the 15 countries are presented. Sector details have been presented throughout the text, allowing an accumulation of overviews of the potentials in the 15 countries distributed across the 7 sectors of the economy around which the country reports have been structured. It is evident that the emissions reduction potential by far exceeds the current emissions reported by the UN, following calculations from the United States Department of Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC). The reason for this is that these figures do not include the indirect emissions caused by current deforestation levels, as presented in the agro and forestry sections of the country reports. The intention behind including these figures is to illustrate that compared to these indirect emissions, almost any emissions reduction initiative, whether CDM or not - even those that may yield hundreds of thousands of tons of CO{sub 2} equivalents - are dwarfed by the main cause of emissions in these countries: deforestation. This source of emissions should be addressed with

Emission characteristics of petrol and diesel driven vehicles in Rewa town

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishra, R.M.; Gupta, A.K.; Parihar, Sarita

1993-01-01

Air pollution by road traffic is likely to be severe in most of the major cities of India, in near future. An emission survey was conducted in Rewa town to obtain the basic data on emission characteristics of inservice vehicles. About 250 two wheelers, 110 cars and 350 diesel vehicles were tested for the emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. Present paper summarizes the data of vehicular emissions observed in this survey and discusses the emission level of different categories of vehicles, in the light of the proposed national standards and the emission standards enforced in developed countries. (author). 9 refs., 4 tabs

Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

Science.gov (United States)

Geels, Camilla; Andersson, Camilla; Hänninen, Otto; Lansø, Anne Sofie; Schwarze, Per E.; Ambelas Skjøth, Carsten; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-01-01

Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future. PMID:25749320

Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camilla Geels

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

Agricultural air quality in Europe and the future perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erisman, J.W.; Bleeker, A.; Hensen, A.; Vermeulen, A.T.

2008-08-01

Agricultural emissions in Europe are important to several atmospheric transport-related environmental issues. These include local and regional air quality problems, such as PM exposure, eutrophication and acidification, toxics and contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a number of environmental impacts. Over Europe, agricultural emissions are variable in space and time and the contribution to the different issues are variable. Most important are ammonia (90%), PM (20%) and methane and nitrous oxide (both 5%). Policies have been developed to combat some of the emissions with success in some countries. However, future, national and European policies are necessary to successfully decrease emissions and its related problems. Current research issues include the quantification of non-point sources, the atmosphere-biosphere exchange of ammonia, the quantification of landscape processes and the primary and secondary emissions of PM

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on global scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-01-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of mercury world-wide are presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

Odour emissions from poultry litter - A review litter properties, odour formation and odorant emissions from porous materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunlop, Mark W; Blackall, Patrick J; Stuetz, Richard M

2016-07-15

Odour emissions from meat chicken sheds can at times cause odour impacts on surrounding communities. Litter is seen as the primary source of this odour. Formation and emission of odour from meat chicken litter during the grow-out period are influenced by various factors such as litter conditions, the environment, microbial activity, properties of the odorous gases and management practices. Odour emissions vary spatially and temporally. This variability has made it challenging to understand how specific litter conditions contribute to odour emissions from the litter and production sheds. Existing knowledge on odorants, odour formation mechanisms and emission processes that contribute to odour emissions from litter are reviewed. Litter moisture content and water thermodynamics (i.e. water activity, Aw) are also examined as factors that contribute to microbial odour formation, physical litter conditions and the exchange of individual odorant gases at the air-water interface. Substantial opportunities exist for future research on litter conditions and litter formation mechanisms and how these contribute to odour emissions. Closing this knowledge gap will improve management strategies that intercept and interfere with odour formation and emission processes leading to an overall reduction in the potential to cause community impacts. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mercury emission from crematories in Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Takaoka

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic sources of mercury emissions have a significant impact on global pollution. Therefore, finding uncharacterised sources and assessing the emissions from these sources are important. However, limited data are available worldwide on mercury emissions from crematories. In Japan, 99.9% of dead bodies are cremated, which is the highest percentage in the world, and more than 1600 crematories are in operation. We thus focused on emissions from crematories in Japan. The number of targeted facilities was seven, and we used continuous emission monitoring to measure the mercury concentrations and investigate mercury behaviour. The total mercury concentrations in stack gases were a few μg/Nm³ (normal cubic meters. Considering the time profile of mercury and its species in cremations, the findings confirmed that the mercury in stack gas originated from dental amalgam. The amount of mercury emissions was calculated using the total concentration and gas flow rate. Furthermore, the annual amount of mercury emission from crematories in Japan was estimated by using the total number of corpses. The emission amount was considerably lower than that estimated in the United Kingdom. From statistical analyses on population demographics and measurements, future total emissions from crematories were also predicted. As a result, the amount of mercury emitted by crematories will likely increase by 2.6-fold from 2007 to 2037.

Current status and future prospect of positron emission tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Eiichi

1997-01-01

This paper describes present and future situation of both the hardware and the software for PET laying emphasis on technical development since 1990. In the present, some institutes still use 2D-PET, however, most technical researches of PET are aiming at 3D-PET, and several difficulties, such as absorption correction, scattering correction, correction of accidental simultaneous count, have been resolved. The difficulties of data correction and the limitation of high counting rate are largely caused by the properties of the detective element BGO. If we can put LSO to practical use, time resolution and energy resolution would be significantly improved, and moreover, it would also be expected to simplify data correction mentioned above and to improve the accuracy. If the removal-type slice septa become useless, the mechanical correction would be easy, and the diameter of detector would be smaller and it will be profitable for the cost. 3D-PET without the slice septa would be ideal in the future. (K.H.). 54 refs

Balance and saving of GHG emissions in thermochemical biorefineries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haro, Pedro; Aracil, Cristina; Vidal-Barrero, Fernando; Ollero, Pedro

2015-01-01

Highlights: • A simplified methodology for the balance and saving of GHG emissions is provided. • The GHG balance has a physical meaning and does not depend on the fossil reference. • The GHG saving depends on regulation of energy carriers. • The impact of Bio-CCS incorporation and multiproduction is analyzed. • The co-production of chemicals needs to be included in future regulation. - Abstract: In this study, a simplified methodology for the calculation of the balance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and corresponding saving compared with the fossil reference is presented. The proposed methodology allows the estimation of the anthropogenic GHG emissions of thermochemical biorefineries (net emitted to the atmosphere). In the calculation of the GHG balance, all relevant factors have been identified and analyzed including multiproduction, emissions from biogenic carbon capture and storage (Bio-CCS), co-feeding of fossil fuels (secondary feedstock) and possible carbon storage in biomass-derived products (chemicals). Therefore, it is possible to calculate the balance of GHG emissions of a hypothetical thermochemical biorefinery considering different alternatives of land-use, biomass feedstock, co-feeding of fossil fuels, Bio-CCS incorporation and final use of the products. The comparison of the estimated GHG balance with the corresponding fossil reference for each product is of special relevance in the methodology since it is the parameter used in European regulation for the fulfillment of sustainability criteria in biomass-derived fuels and liquids. The proposed methodology is tested using a previously assessed set of different process concepts of thermochemical biorefineries (techno-economic analysis). The resulting GHG balance and saving are analyzed to identify uncertainties and provide recommendations for future regulation. In all process concepts, the GHG savings are above the minimum requirement of GHG emissions for 2018. In the case of incorporating

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) emissions from human waste in 1970-2050

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Strokal, M.; Kroeze, C.

2014-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important contributor to climate change. Human waste is an important source of N2O emissions in several world regions, and its share in global emissions may increase in the future. In this paper we, therefore, address N2O emission from human waste: collected (from treatment

CO2 emissions in Croatia in 2050: what is the pathway to a low-carbon future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bozicevic Vrhovcak, M.; Rogulj, I.

2015-01-01

The article deals with carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector in the Republic of Croatia by 2050. Based on the projections of energy supply and demand of all consumption sectors and corresponding CO2 emissions, an interactive platform was developed that clearly connects consequences of certain decisions and choices and the total greenhouse gas emissions. The developed tool allows for simple comparisons of different development options in terms of CO2 emissions and is an important tool for understanding the complexity of the transition to a low carbon society. Input data were collected and the platform was developed under the IPA project South East Europe Sustainable Energy Policy, which is being implemented from 2011 to 2016. (author).

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann; Smith, Pete; Porter, John Roy

2016-01-01

Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we...... estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements...... to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis....

Analysis and control design of sustainable policies for greenhouse gas emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chu, Bing; Duncan, Stephen; Papachristodoulou, Antonis; Hepburn, Cameron

2013-01-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is now an urgent priority. Systems control theory, and in particular feedback control, can be helpful in designing policies that achieve sustainable levels of emissions of CO 2 (and other greenhouse gases) while minimizing the impact on the economy, and at the same time explicitly addressing the high levels of uncertainty associated with predictions of future emissions. In this paper, we describe preliminary results for an approach where model predictive control (MPC) is applied to a model of the UK economy (UK 4see model) as a test bed to design sustainable policies for greenhouse gas emissions. Using feedback control, the policies are updated on the basis of the actual emissions, rather than on the predicted level of emissions. The basic structure and principle of the UK 4see model is described and its implementation in Simulink is presented. A linearized state space model is obtained and model predictive control is applied to design policies for CO 2 emissions. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The preliminary results obtained in this paper illustrate the strength of the proposed design approach and form the basis for future research on using systems control theory to design optimal sustainable policies

Growing America's Energy Future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2016-06-01

The emerging U.S. bioenergy industry provides a secure and growing supply of transportation fuels, biopower, and bioproducts produced from a range of abundant, renewable biomass resources. Bioenergy can help ensure a secure, sustainable, and economically sound future by reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, developing domestic clean energy sources, and generating domestic green jobs. Bioenergy can also help address growing concerns about climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to create a healthier environment for current and future generations.

Cathode R and D for future light sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowell, D.H., E-mail: dowell@slac.stanford.ed [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, 2575 Sand Hill Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (United States); Bazarov, I.; Dunham, B. [Cornell University, Cornell Laboratory for Accelerator-Based Sciences and Education (CLASSE) Wilson Laboratory, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Harkay, K. [Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S. Cass Avenue, Argonne, Il 60439 (United States); Hernandez-Garcia, C. [Thomas Jefferson Laboratory, 12000 Jefferson Ave, Free Electron Laser Suite 19 Newport News, VA 23606 (United States); Legg, R. [University of Wisconsin, SRC, 3731 Schneider Dr., Stoughton, WI 53589 (United States); Padmore, H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Rao, T.; Smedley, J. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, 20 Technology Street, Bldg. 535B, Brookhaven National Laboratory Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Wan, W. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

2010-10-21

This paper reviews the requirements and current status of cathodes for accelerator applications, and proposes a research and development plan for advancing cathode technology. Accelerator cathodes need to have long operational lifetimes and produce electron beams with a very low emittance. The two principal emission processes to be considered are thermionic and photoemission with the photocathodes being further subdivided into metal and semi-conductors. Field emission cathodes are not included in this analysis. The thermal emittance is derived and the formulas used to compare the various cathode materials. To date, there is no cathode which provides all the requirements needed for the proposed future light sources. Therefore a three part research plan is described to develop cathodes for these future light source applications.

Recent climatic change, greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: The implications for India

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, P. Govinda; Kelly, P. M.; Hulme, M.

1996-03-01

In this paper, we discuss past climatic trends over India, greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption, forest and land-use changes, climate change scenarios for the year 2050, potential consequences for agriculture and cyclone activity and the possibility that India might limit the increasing trend in its emissions. India's mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by about 0.4°C over the past ccntury. Neither monsoon nor annual rainfall shows any significant trend. On average, there has been a rise in sea levels around India over recent decades, though considerable uncertainties exist in the accuracy and interpretation of the available data. Carbon emissions from the energy sector amount to 71 MT a year, equivalent to all other sectors combined. From land-use data, a marginal net sequestration of 5.25 million tonnes of carbon occurred during 1986. Following the IPCC guidelines, methane emissions from rice and livestock are estimated at 17.4 and 12.8 Tg/year, respectively. According to recent climate model projections, India may experience a further rise in temperature of 1 °C by the year 2050, about four times the rate of warming experienced over the past 100 years. A modest increase in precipitation amounts might occur. Cereals production is estimated to decrease and the nutrition security of the population-rich but land-hungry region of India might be hampered. An increase in local tropical cyclone activity may occur over thc next century, posing added problems as large areas in the coastal regions have a dense population. About 70% of the electricity generation in India is from coal-based power stations. Altering this dependence significantly to reduce emissions would imply a substantial change in the present energy policy of India. There is great potential for improving energy efficiency and conservation. The adoption of cleaner coal-technologies should be considered, as must the development of renewable, non-conventional energy

Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

2016-09-01

One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth: a multivariate and causality analysis for Ghana, 1971-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-07-01

In this study, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth in Ghana was investigated from 1971 to 2013 by comparing the vector error correction model (VECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Prior to testing for Granger causality based on VECM, the study tested for unit roots, Johansen's multivariate co-integration and performed a variance decomposition analysis using Cholesky's technique. Evidence from the variance decomposition shows that 21 % of future shocks in carbon dioxide emissions are due to fluctuations in energy use, 8 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in GDP, and 6 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in population. There was evidence of bidirectional causality running from energy use to GDP and a unidirectional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy use, carbon dioxide emissions to GDP, carbon dioxide emissions to population, and population to energy use. Evidence from the long-run elasticities shows that a 1 % increase in population in Ghana will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.72 %. There was evidence of short-run equilibrium relationship running from energy use to carbon dioxide emissions and GDP to carbon dioxide emissions. As a policy implication, the addition of renewable energy and clean energy technologies into Ghana's energy mix can help mitigate climate change and its impact in the future.

Prospects for future climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

The different climates of the past and model simulations of future climates convincingly indicate that the continuing emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to significant global warming and to changes in precipitation and other climatic variables. The projected changes in atmospheric composition and, consequently, in climatic conditions will be unique and more rapid than at any time in the past. The developing understanding of the chemical cycles controlling atmospheric composition and of the processes and behavior controlling the climate system can provide significant guidance about how the future climate will change. This chapter first summarizes the many scientific advances described in the preceding chapters that can help one better understand and describe the climate system and the resulting agricultural and hydrological impacts of these changes in climate. The chapter then draws from this understanding to outline the prospects for future climate

The climate impact of future energy peat production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hagberg, Linus; Holmgren, Kristina

2008-09-15

The aim of this study was to estimate total greenhouse gas emissions and climate impact of different peat utilisation scenarios, using a life cycle perspective. This and previous studies show that the climate impact from energy peat utilisation is more complex than just considering the emissions at the combustion stage. There are important emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases that occur on the peatland before, during and after peat harvest. The results show that the climate impact of future peat utilisation can be significantly reduced compared to current utilisation and will be lower than the climate impact resulting from only the combustion phase. This can be achieved by choosing already drained peatlands with high greenhouse gas emissions, using a more efficient production method and by securing a low-emission after-treatment of the cutaway (e.g. afforestation)

Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Sheng; Kyle, G. Page; Yu, Sha; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Luckow, Patrick; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Zhang, Xiliang; Edmonds, James A.

2013-01-01

The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China's final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China's per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO 2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO 2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095. - Highlights: • Eleven industrial subsectors in China are detail analyzed from a global perspective. • Industrial energy use and CO 2 emissions will approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040. • Industrial CHP and CCS are truly encouraged by carbon tax. • Some degree of industrial sector electrification are observed by carbon tax

Novel Fiber-Optic Ring Acoustic Emission Sensor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Wei

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Acoustic emission technology has been applied to many fields for many years. However, the conventional piezoelectric acoustic emission sensors cannot be used in extreme environments, such as those with heavy electromagnetic interference, high pressure, or strong corrosion. In this paper, a novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor is proposed. The sensor exhibits high sensitivity, anti-electromagnetic interference, and corrosion resistance. First, the principle of a novel fiber-optic ring sensor is introduced. Different from piezoelectric and other fiber acoustic emission sensors, this novel sensor includes both a sensing skeleton and a sensing fiber. Second, a heterodyne interferometric demodulating method is presented. In addition, a fiber-optic ring sensor acoustic emission system is built based on this method. Finally, fiber-optic ring acoustic emission experiments are performed. The novel fiber-optic ring sensor is glued onto the surface of an aluminum plate. The 150 kHz standard continuous sinusoidal signals and broken lead signals are successfully detected by the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In addition, comparison to the piezoelectric acoustic emission sensor is performed, which shows the availability and reliability of the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In the future, this novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor will provide a new route to acoustic emission detection in harsh environments.

Emission credits : what are they worth?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilman, E.A.

2003-01-01

The current cost of making a carbon transaction was discussed with particular reference to a time-line when emissions trading will become more cost-effective and streamlined for quicker results. This paper described how companies are dealing with the risk of emissions trading in terms of pricing and the expected financial impacts of owning a new commodity. The incorporation of emissions credits and trading activities into a company's balance sheet was also described in terms of how banks will consider a company's credit when calculating their loan potential. It was noted that some credits will be valued higher than others based on their historical background. The financial impact that credits have on company assets was addressed in terms of measuring reputation management. The importance of developing a financial plan for effective management was emphasized in terms of evaluating emissions reduction projects and future options. 17 refs., 2 figs

Self-organized global control of carbon emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Zhenyuan; Fenn, Daniel J.; Hui, Pak Ming; Johnson, Neil F.

2010-09-01

There is much disagreement concerning how best to control global carbon emissions. We explore quantitatively how different control schemes affect the collective emission dynamics of a population of emitting entities. We uncover a complex trade-off which arises between average emissions (affecting the global climate), peak pollution levels (affecting citizens’ everyday health), industrial efficiency (affecting the nation’s economy), frequency of institutional intervention (affecting governmental costs), common information (affecting trading behavior) and market volatility (affecting financial stability). Our findings predict that a self-organized free-market approach at the level of a sector, state, country or continent can provide better control than a top-down regulated scheme in terms of market volatility and monthly pollution peaks. The control of volatility also has important implications for any future derivative carbon emissions market.

How to Achieve CO2 Emission Reduction Goals: What 'Jazz' and 'Symphony' Can Offer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rose, K.

2013-01-01

Achieving CO 2 emission reduction goals remains one of today's most challenging tasks. Global energy demand will grow for many decades to come. In many regions of the world cheap fossil fuels seem to be the way forward to meet ever growing energy demand. However, there are negative consequences to this, most notably increasing emission levels. Politicians and industry therefore must accept that make hard choices in this generation need to be made to bring about real changes for future generations and the planet to limit CO 2 emissions and climate change. In his presentation, prof. Rose will provide an insight into how CO 2 emission reduction goals can be set and achieved and how a balance between future energy needs and supply can be realised in the long run up to 2050 both globally and regionally. This will be done based on WEC's own leading analysis in this area, namely it recently launched World Energy Scenarios: composing energy futures to 2050 report and WEC's scenarios, Jazz and Symphony. WEC's full analysis, the complete report and supporting material is available online at: http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2013/world-energy-scenarios-composing-energy-futures-to-2050.(author)

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth (Fact Sheet)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

2013-11-01

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.

Modeling of pollutant emissions from road transport; Modelisation des emissions de polluants par le transport routier

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

COPERT III (computer programme to calculate emissions from road transport) is the third version of an MS Windows software programme aiming at the calculation of air pollutant emissions from road transport. COPERT estimates emissions of all regulated air pollutants (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM) produced by different vehicle categories as well as CO{sub 2} emissions on the basis of fuel consumption. This research seminar was organized by the French agency of environment and energy mastery (Ademe) around the following topics: the uncertainties and sensitiveness analysis of the COPERT III model, the presentation of case studies that use COPERT III for the estimation of road transport emissions, and the future of the modeling of road transport emissions: from COPERT III to ARTEMIS (assessment and reliability of transport emission models and inventory systems). This document is a compilation of 8 contributions to this seminar and dealing with: the uncertainty and sensitiveness analysis of the COPERT III model; the road mode emissions of the ESCOMPTE program: sensitivity study; the sensitivity analysis of the spatialized traffic at the time-aggregation level: application in the framework of the INTERREG project (Alsace); the road transport aspect of the regional air quality plan of Bourgogne region: exhaustive consideration of the road network; intercomparison of tools and methods for the inventory of emissions of road transport origin; evolution of the French park of vehicles by 2025: new projections; application of COPERT III to the French context: a new version of IMPACT-ADEME; the European ARTEMIS project: new structural considerations for the modeling of road transport emissions. (J.S.)

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacyna, J. M.; Travnikov, O.; De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Sundseth, K.; Pacyna, E. G.; Steenhuisen, F.; Pirrone, N.; Munthe, J.; Kindbom, K.

2016-01-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the

Emissions trading in the real world : Ontario Power Generation's domestic and international trading activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jantzi, B.

2001-01-01

In this presentation, the author discussed Ontario Power Generation's voluntary commitment to stabilize carbon dioxide equivalent emissions at 1990 levels. To do so, Ontario Power Generation is implementing a series of green energy initiatives, a corporate tree planting program, internal energy efficiency, and an emission reduction trading (ERT). The emphasis was placed on emission trading, where Ontario Power Generation is a leader in the field of greenhouse gas, nitrogen oxide and sulphur dioxide trading in Canada. The approach to trading adopted was explained, with the specifics provided for each of the different categories of emissions. Some examples further illustrated the process. The outlook for the future was outlined, with plans for the geological sequestration of carbon dioxide and enhanced oil recovery, low nitrogen oxide gasoline additive. The benefits of emission trading were discussed from the perspective of Ontario Power Generation and the environment, such as allowing real reductions in emissions in a cost effective manner, enhanced risk management, investments in emissions reductions. The author argued that emission reduction is the way of the future, representing the only way in which the greenhouse gas emissions reductions required to minimize global climate change will be accomplished

Recent intensification of winter haze in China linked to foreign emissions and meteorology.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yang; Wang, Hailong; Smith, Steven J; Zhang, Rudong; Lou, Sijia; Qian, Yun; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J

2018-02-01

Wintertime aerosol pollution in the North China Plain has increased over the past several decades as anthropogenic emissions in China have increased, and has dramatically escalated since the beginning of the 21 st century, but the causes and their quantitative attributions remain unclear. Here we use an aerosol source tagging capability implemented in a global aerosol-climate model to assess long-term trends of PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) in the North China Plain. Our analysis suggests that the impact of China's increasing domestic emissions on PM 2.5 concentrations over the last two decades of 20 th century was partially offset (13%) by decreasing foreign emission over this period. As foreign emissions stabilized after 2000, their counteracting effect almost disappeared, uncovering the impact of China's increasing domestic emissions that had been partially offset in previous years by reductions in foreign emissions. A slowdown in the impact from foreign emission reductions together with weakening winds explain 25% of the increased PM 2.5 trend over 2000-2014 as compared to 1980-2000. Further reductions in foreign emissions are not expected to relieve China's pollution in the future. Reducing local emissions is the most certain way to improve future air quality in the North China Plain.

Impact of a future H2 transportation on atmospheric pollution in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Popa, M. E.; Segers, A. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Krol, M. C.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Schaap, M.; Röckmann, T.

2015-07-01

Hydrogen (H2) is being explored as a fuel for passenger vehicles; it can be used in fuel cells to power electric motors or burned in internal combustion engines. In order to evaluate the potential influence of a future H2-based road transportation on the regional air quality in Europe, we implemented H2 in the atmospheric transport and chemistry model LOTOS-EUROS. We simulated the present and future (2020) air quality, using emission scenarios with different proportions of H2 vehicles and different H2 leakage rates. The reference future scenario does not include H2 vehicles, and assumes that all present and planned European regulations for emissions are fully implemented. We find that, in general, the air quality in 2020 is significantly improved compared to the current situation in all scenarios, with and without H2 cars. In the future scenario without H2 cars, the pollution is reduced due to the strict European regulations: annually averaged CO, NOx and PM2.5 over the model domain decrease by 15%, 30% and 20% respectively. The additional improvement brought by replacing 50% or 100% of traditionally-fueled vehicles by H2 vehicles is smaller in absolute terms. If 50% of vehicles are using H2, the CO, NOx and PM2.5 decrease by 1%, 10% and 1% respectively, compared to the future scenario without H2 cars. When all vehicles run on H2, then additional decreases in CO, NOx and PM2.5 are 5%, 40%, and 5% relative to the no-H2 cars future scenario. Our study shows that H2 vehicles may be an effective pathway to fulfill the strict future EU air quality regulations. O3 has a more complicated behavior - its annual average decreases in background areas, but increases in the high-NOx area in western Europe, with the decrease in NOx. A more detailed analysis shows that the population exposure to high O3 levels decreases nevertheless. In all future scenarios, traffic emissions account for only a small proportion of the total anthropogenic emissions, thus it becomes more important

Future of energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, John

2005-01-01

Australia has one of the most cost-effective energy conversion and delivery systems in the world. We are blessed with abundant, high-quality fossil fuels consisting mainly of coal, gas and (diminishing) oil resources. However, this past blessing is also a future curse as this fuel mix, coupled with limits to hydroelectric growth and no nuclear generation capacity, has endowed Australia with one of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP in the developed world (currently 43 per cent above the International Energy Agency average). This prompted Claude Mandil, head of the IEA, to observe: 'Environmental sustainability represent Australia's greatest energy challenge, with high and growing carbon dioxide emissions.' The challenge for Australia is how to make the massive cuts in GHG emissions required to minimise our world trade risks (which will come at a cost, and put pressure on our energy cost-effectiveness) while maintaining an internationally competitive energy sector. This challenge is exacerbated by a healthy national growth rate which will be accompanied by at least a 50 per cent growth in energy demand by 2020, with a doubling by 2050. Electricity industry projections predict an investment in new generation capacity well in excess of $30 billion to keep up with demand over the next two decades. The stark reality is that if we con tinue to supply and use energy the way we do now, we may as well forget about stabilising our GHG emissions from the energy sector, let alone reducing them in the future. This urgent situation presents a huge opportunity for the introduction of new and improved low-emission energy conversion technologies and demand management systems that vastly reduce GHG emissions per unit of productivity - in fact, an opportunity to transform Australia's energy sector to levels of innovation, social acceptance and environmental performance that has no precedent in this country. We have little choice other than to make a start. Are

Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Isaksen, Ivar S.A.; Gauss, Michael; Myhre, Gunnar; Walter Anthony, Katey M.; Ruppel, Carolyn

2011-01-01

The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a “state of the art” atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming.

Emission consequences of introducing bio ethanol as a fuel for gasoline cars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winther, Morten Mentz; Møller, Flemming; Jensen, Thomas Christian

2012-01-01

This article describes the direct vehicle emission impact of the future use of bio ethanol as a fuel for gasoline cars in Denmark arising from the vehicle specific fuel consumption and emission differences between neat gasoline (E0) and E5/E85 gasoline-ethanol fuel blends derived from emission......% in 2030. As predicted by the vehicle specific emission differences the calculated emission impacts of using bio ethanol are small for NOx, VOC and CO. Instead, for FS, BS1 and BS2 large emission reductions are due to the gradually cleaner new sold gasoline cars and the decline in total mileage until...

Greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mbuthi, P.N.

1998-01-01

This study quantifies greenhouse gas emissions from Kenya's energy activities. It is organised in four major sections, namely, an overview of the energy sector; data sources and methodology of analysis; results and recommendations for future climate change mitigation

Future Air Quality in Danish Cities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, S. S.; Berkowicz, R.; Winther, M.

The impact of new EU vehicle emission and fuel quality directives on the future air quality in Danish cities has been modelled for comparison with new limit values in the new EU directive on assessment and management of urban air quality. Nested modelling was applied using a set of air quality...... and emission models to predict concentration levels in the regional background, urban background and at street level. Air pollution levels were predicted to decrease for NO2, CO and benzene (ozone increased slightly) and the results show that the levels will not exceed the new EU limit values in 2010 despite...

Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors

Science.gov (United States)

Quilcaille, Y.; Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.; Lecocq, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Mohr, S.

2018-04-01

Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (ΔT) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system’s response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ΔT to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system’s response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the

Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

Science.gov (United States)

Winiwarter, Wilfried; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Klimont, Zbigniew; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

2018-01-01

We describe a consistent framework developed to quantify current and future anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide and the available technical abatement options by source sector for 172 regions globally. About 65% of the current emissions derive from agricultural soils, 8% from waste, and 4% from the chemical industry. Low-cost abatement options are available in industry, wastewater, and agriculture, where they are limited to large industrial farms. We estimate that by 2030, emissions can be reduced by about 6% ±2% applying abatement options at a cost lower than 10 €/t CO2-eq. The largest abatement potential at higher marginal costs is available from agricultural soils, employing precision fertilizer application technology as well as chemical treatment of fertilizers to suppress conversion processes in soil (nitrification inhibitors). At marginal costs of up to 100 €/t CO2-eq, about 18% ±6% of baseline emissions can be removed and when considering all available options, the global abatement potential increases to about 26% ±9%. Due to expected future increase in activities driving nitrous oxide emissions, the limited technical abatement potential available means that even at full implementation of reduction measures by 2030, global emissions can be at most stabilized at the pre-2010 level. In order to achieve deeper reductions in emissions, considerable technological development will be required as well as non-technical options like adjusting human diets towards moderate animal protein consumption.

Compliance with future emission standards of mobile machines by developing a monovalent natural gas combustion process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prehn, Sascha; Wichmann, Volker; Harndorf, Horst; Beberdick, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

Within the presented project a monovalent natural gas engine is being developed. Based on a serial diesel engine the operation mode of this prototype is changed to a spark ignition concept. The long term purpose of this new engine is an agricultural application. One major objective of the project is the investigation and evaluation of a combustion process, able to fulfil the performance requests as well as the European emission limits for nitrogen oxides NO x , and carbon monoxide CO of mobile machinery, which become into law in October 2014 (EU stage IV). At the time there are no legislative regulations existing regarding the methane emissions of the observed engines. To get a benefit in greenhouse gas emissions compared to diesel or gasoline engines the methane emissions have to be minimized while operating in natural gas mode. In the course of the current project an engine operation with a methane emission less than 0.5 g/kWh (representing the EURO VI limit for heavy duty vehicles) could be demonstrated. In contrast to diesel engines for agricultural applications it is possible to comply with the emission standards without using a high sophisticated after treatment system consisting of diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), particulate filter (DPF) and SCR catalyst. The usage of a three way catalyst optimized for high methane conversions is sufficient for a stoichiometry gas operation with exhaust gas recirculation. Therefore a significant cost advantage is given.

Mercury from wildfires: Global emission inventories and sensitivity to 2000-2050 global change

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Aditya; Wu, Shiliang; Huang, Yaoxian; Liao, Hong; Kaplan, Jed O.

2018-01-01

We estimate the global Hg wildfire emissions for the 2000s and the potential impacts from the 2000-2050 changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions by combining statistical analysis with global data on vegetation type and coverage as well as fire activities. Global Hg wildfire emissions are estimated to be 612 Mg year-1. Africa is the dominant source region (43.8% of global emissions), followed by Eurasia (31%) and South America (16.6%). We find significant perturbations to wildfire emissions of Hg in the context of global change, driven by the projected changes in climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions. 2000-2050 climate change could increase Hg emissions by 14% globally and regionally by 18% for South America, 14% for Africa and 13% for Eurasia. Projected changes in land use by 2050 could decrease the global Hg emissions from wildfires by 13% mainly driven by a decline in African emissions due to significant agricultural land expansion. Future land cover changes could lead to significant increases in Hg emissions over some regions (+32% North America, +14% Africa, +13% Eurasia). Potential enrichment of terrestrial ecosystems in 2050 in response to changes in Hg anthropogenic emissions could increase Hg wildfire emissions globally (+28%) and regionally (+19% North America, +20% South America, +24% Africa, +41% Eurasia). Our results indicate that the future evolution of climate, land use and land cover and Hg anthropogenic emissions are all important factors affecting Hg wildfire emissions in the coming decades.

Modelling lifestyle effects on energy demand and related emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, C.

2000-01-01

An approach to analyse and quantify the impact of lifestyle factors on current and future energy demand is developed. Thereby not only directly environmentally relevant consumer activities such as car use or heating have been analysed, but also expenditure patterns which induce environmental damage through the production of the consumed goods. The use of household survey data from the national statistical offices offers the possibility to cover this wide range of activities. For the available social-economic household characteristics a variety of different behavioural patterns have been observed. For evaluating the energy and emission consequences of the consumed goods enhanced input-output models are used. The additions implemented - a mixed monetary-energetic approach for inter-industry flows and a separate treatment of transport -related emissions - improve the reliability of the obtained results. The developed approach has been used for analysing current emissions profiles and distributions in West Germany, France and the Netherlands as well as scenarios for future energy demand and related emissions. It therefore provides a comprehensive methodology to analyse environmental effects in a consumer and citizen perspective and thus contributes to an increase transparency of complex economic and ecological interconnections. (author)

Carbon emission offsets for aviation-generated emissions due to international travel to and from New Zealand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Inga J.; Rodger, Craig J.

2009-01-01

International air transport emissions are not subject to liability under the Kyoto Protocol. However, pressure is mounting globally for international aviation to be included in post-Kyoto arrangements. In the absence of international collective action, a number of so-called carbon offsetting schemes have emerged that allow individual travellers and companies to compensate for their international air travel emissions. These schemes offer technological solutions, such as planting sink forests to sequester emissions. To consider the implications of future collective action, this paper presents a case study assessment of the physical feasibility of five schemes for all short duration journeys to and from New Zealand. This is the first comprehensive national-level case study assessment of competing offsetting options for international aviation emissions in the peer-reviewed literature. The CO 2 -e emissions produced by the air travel of international visitors to New Zealand, and for New Zealand residents travelling overseas, is calculated in this paper to be 7893 and 3948 Gg, respectively, in 2005. It is then shown that no single offsetting scheme targeted inside the country appears physically and/or politically realistic. This indicates the sheer size of these emissions, and the challenge that the international community faces for collective action on this matter. (author)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 17 Years and Still Talking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, Ch.

2010-01-01

This paper, written in French and in English, examines how the figures have changed from Kyoto base year 1990 up to 2007, before looking at certain countries' proposals for the future of their carbon dioxide emissions. Statistics are given concerning the emissions changes in various countries (or groups of countries) but also their developments in regards to the economy and energy use. Changes in CO 2 emissions, changes in the gross domestic product of a country, its CO 2 emissions per capita, its energy intensity (the ratio of energy use to the monetary value of GDP) and its carbon intensity of energy use as well as population change, are presented. The main countries considered are: United States, European Union, China, Japan, India, Brazil, South Africa and Russia

Future changes of the atmospheric composition and the impact of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grewe, V.; Dameris, M.; Hein, R.; Sausen, R. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Steil, B. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institut), Mainz (Germany). Abt. Chemie der Atmosphaere

1999-05-01

The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition, with respect of NO{sub y} and O{sub 3} is investigated by means of the off-line coupled dynamic-chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO{sub x} and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO{sub x} and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamic parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, i.e. wind speed, diabatic circulation, stratosphere-troposphere-exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate-chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major role for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO{sub y} and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere. (orig.)

Nitrous oxide (N2O). Emission inventory and options for control in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kroeze C; LAE

1994-01-01

This study was initiated to overview current knowledge on nitrous oxide (N2O). The report reviews atmospheric behaviour of N2O, global sources and sinks, Dutch emissions in 1990, options to reduce emissions, and past and future emissions. Despite the uncertainties involved, it is likely that without

Critical emission from a high-spin black hole

Science.gov (United States)

Lupsasca, Alexandru; Porfyriadis, Achilleas P.; Shi, Yichen

2018-03-01

We consider a rapidly spinning black hole surrounded by an equatorial, geometrically thin, slowly accreting disk that is stationary and axisymmetric. We analytically compute the broadening of electromagnetic line emissions from the innermost part of the disk, which resides in the near-horizon region. The result is independent of the disk's surface emissivity and therefore universal. This is an example of critical behavior in astronomy that is potentially observable by current or future telescopes.

The design, results and future development of the National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, R.E.; Boyd, G.A.; Breed, W.S.

1991-01-01

The National Energy Strategy Environmental Model (NESEAM) has been developed to project emissions for the National Energy Strategy (NES). Two scenarios were evaluated for the NES, a Current Policy Base Case and a NES Action Case. The results from the NES Actions Case project much lower emissions than the Current Policy Base Case. Future enhancements to NESEAM will focus on fuel cycle analysis, including future technologies and additional pollutants to model. NESEAM's flexibility will allow it to model other future legislative issues. 7 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

Identity-based estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann; Smith, Pete; Soussana, Jean-Francois

2012-01-01

reduction of emissions i.e. reducing emissions per unit of agricultural product rather than the absolute emissions per se. Hence the system productivity must be included in the same analysis. This paper presents the Kaya- Porter identity, derived from the Kaya identity, as a new way to calculate GHG...... (ha). These separate elements in the identity can be targeted in emissions reduction and mitigation policies and are useful to analyse past and current trends in emissions and to explore future scenarios. Using the Kaya-Porter identity we have performed a case study on Danish crop production and find...... emissions to have been reduced by 12% from 1992 to 2008, whilst yields per unit area have remained constant. Both land-based emissions and energy-based emissions have decreased, mainly due to a 41% reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use. The initial identity based analysis for crop production presented here...

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Marcy, Cara [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-02-01

Federal tax credits for renewable energy (RE) have served as one of the primary financial incentives for RE deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind power production tax credit and solar investment tax credits were extended for five years as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016. This report explores the impact that these tax credit extensions might have on future RE capacity deployment and power sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The analysis examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures as natural gas prices have been key factors in influencing the economic competitiveness of new RE development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price futures, RE tax credit extensions can spur RE capacity investments at least through the early 2020s and can help lower emissions from the U.S. electricity system. More specifically, the RE tax credit extensions are estimated to drive a net peak increase of 48-53 GW in installed RE capacity in the early 2020s -- longer term impacts are less certain. In the longer term after the tax credits ramp down, greater RE capacity is driven by a combination of assumed RE cost declines, rising fossil fuel prices, and other clean energy policies such as the Clean Power Plan. The tax credit extension-driven acceleration in RE capacity development can reduce fossil fuel-based generation and lower electric sector CO2 emissions. Cumulative emissions reductions over a 15-year period (spanning 2016-2030) as a result of the tax credit extensions are estimated to range from 540 to 1420 million metric tonnes CO2. These findings suggest that tax credit extensions can have a measurable impact on future RE deployment and electric sector CO2 emissions under a range of natural gas price futures.

CO2 emission costs and Gas/Coal competition for power production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santi, Federico

2005-01-01

This paper demonstrates how a CO 2 emission reduction programme can change the competition between the two power production technologies which will probably dominate the future of the Italian power industry: the coal fired USC steam power plant and the natural gas fired CCGT power plant. An economic value of the CO 2 emission is calculated, in order to make the short-run-marginal-cost (or the long-run-marginal-cost). equal for both technologies, under a CO 2 emission trading scheme and following a single-plant specific CO 2 emission homogenizing approach [it

Control mechanisms for Nordic ship emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martinsen, K. [DNV, Oslo (Norway); Torvanger, A. [Cicero, Oslo (Norway)

2013-04-15

Shipping today operates under a complex set of international and domestic regulations. However, the environmental regulations have lagged behind those of other industries. This situation is now changing quite dramatically. The increased focus on environmental issues, combined with the growing realisation of the actual pollution burden imposed by shipping, has led to an upsurge in both international and national regulations. Some are ready and will enter into force in the near future, while others are still being developed. On behalf of the Nordic Council of Ministers DNV has carried out a study on possible control mechanisms for Nordic ship emission. The aim is to assess the baseline shipping emissions and reduction potential and the possible controlling mechanisms (both incentives and regulations) available for reducing the emissions to air from shipping within the Nordic region. (Author)

Market analysis and risk management of EU emissions trading

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ollikainen, M.; Ollikka, K.; Aatola, P.; Ahonen, H.M.; Pohjola, T.; Kumpulainen, A.; Lappalainen, E.

2006-01-01

The first EU emissions trading period commenced on 1 January 2005. It implies new challenges to companies included in the scheme. A central challenge is the uncertainty related to the markets. In order to manage risks and profitability companies need to be able to estimate future price developments of emission allowances. University of Helsinki is conducting a research project in cooperation with Helsinki University of Technology that will provide necessary information for analyzing emission allowance markets and create risk management competence. The objectives of the research project are 1) to develop a price estimation model for EU emission allowances and 2) to develop risk management competence related to EU emission allowances. With the price estimation model the short-term price developments of EU emission allowances can be estimated. By utilizing the model companies can reduce uncertainties related to the markets. The project will also deliver a general risk management model for emission allowances that aims at improving competitiveness of companies. (orig.)

Motives for adherence to a gluten-free diet: a qualitative investigation involving adults with coeliac disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Dowd, A J; Tamminen, K A; Jung, M E; Case, S; McEwan, D; Beauchamp, M R

2014-12-01

Currently , the only treatment for coeliac disease is life long adherence to a strict gluten-free diet. Strict adherence to a gluten-free diet is challenging, with recent reports suggesting that adherence rates range from 42% to 91%. The present study aimed to: (i) identify motives for adhering to a gluten-free diet and (ii) explore factors implicated in adherence and non-adherence behaviour in terms of accidental and purposeful gluten consumption among adults with coeliac disease. Two hundred and three adults with coeliac disease completed an online questionnaire. Using a qualitative design, relationships were examined between reported adherence and motivation to follow a gluten-free diet, as well as the onset, duration and severity of symptoms. Feelings of desperation (‘hitting rock bottom’) and needing to gain or lose weight were associated with the strictest adherence to a gluten-free diet. Participants who accidentally consumed gluten over the past week developed symptoms the most quickly and reported the most pain over the past 6 months. Participants who consumed gluten on purpose over the past week reported a shorter duration of symptoms and less pain over the past 6 months. Hitting rock bottom and needing to gain or lose weight were factors associated with the strictest adherence, when considered in the context of both accidental and purposeful gluten consumption. Future research is warranted to develop resources to help people with coeliac disease follow a strict gluten-free diet.

CO2 emissions and reduction potential in China's chemical industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Bing; Zhou, Wenji; Hu, Shanying; Li, Qiang; Griffy-Brown, Charla; Jin, Yong

2010-01-01

GHG (Increasing greenhouse gas) emissions in China imposes enormous pressure on China's government and society. The increasing GHG trend is primarily driven by the fast expansion of high energy-intensive sectors including the chemical industry. This study investigates energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in the processes of chemical production in China through calculating the amounts of CO 2 emissions and estimating the reduction potential in the near future. The research is based on a two-level perspective which treats the entire industry as Level one and six key sub-sectors as Level two, including coal-based ammonia, calcium carbide, caustic soda, coal-based methanol, sodium carbonate, and yellow phosphorus. These two levels are used in order to address the complexity caused by the fact that there are more than 40 thousand chemical products in this industry and the performance levels of the technologies employed are extremely uneven. Three scenarios with different technological improvements are defined to estimate the emissions of the six sub-sectors and analyze the implied reduction potential in the near future. The results highlight the pivotal role that regulation and policy administration could play in controlling the CO 2 emissions by promoting average technology performances in this industry.

Current and future greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation in China: implications for electric vehicles.

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian; Wallington, Timothy J

2014-06-17

China's oil imports and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown rapidly over the past decade. Addressing energy security and GHG emissions is a national priority. Replacing conventional vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs) offers a potential solution to both issues. While the reduction in petroleum use and hence the energy security benefits of switching to EVs are obvious, the GHG benefits are less obvious. We examine the current Chinese electric grid and its evolution and discuss the implications for EVs. China's electric grid will be dominated by coal for the next few decades. In 2015 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, EVs will need to use less than 14, 19, and 23 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 183 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. In 2020, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou EVs will need to use less than 13, 18, and 20 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 137 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. EVs currently demonstrated in China use 24-32 kWh/100 km. Electrification will reduce petroleum imports; however, it will be very challenging for EVs to contribute to government targets for GHGs emissions reduction.

Heating and cooling energy demand and related emissions of the German residential building stock under climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olonscheck, Mady; Holsten, Anne; Kropp, Juergen P.

2011-01-01

The housing sector is a major consumer of energy. Studies on the future energy demand under climate change which also take into account future changes of the building stock, renovation measures and heating systems are still lacking. We provide the first analysis of the combined effect of these four influencing factors on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany until 2060. We show that the heating energy demand will decrease substantially in the future. This shift will mainly depend on the number of renovated buildings and climate change scenarios and only slightly on demographic changes. The future cooling energy demand will remain low in the future unless the amount of air conditioners strongly increases. As a strong change in the German energy mix is not expected, the future GHG emissions caused by heating will mainly depend on the energy demand for future heating. - Highlights: → The future heating energy demand of German residential buildings strongly decreases. → Extent of these changes mainly depends on the number of renovated buildings. → Demographic changes will only play a minor role. → Cooling energy demand will remain low in future but with large insecurities. → Germany's 2050 emission targets for the building stock are ambitious.

Global emissions and models of photochemically active compounds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Penner, J.E.; Atherton, C.S.; Graedel, T.E.

1993-01-01

Anthropogenic emissions from industrial activity, fossil fuel combustion, and biomass burning are now known to be large enough (relative to natural sources) to perturb the chemistry of vast regions of the troposphere. A goal of the IGAC Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) is to provide authoritative and reliable emissions inventories on a 1 degree x 1 degree grid. When combined with atmospheric photochemical models, these high quality emissions inventories may be used to predict the concentrations of major photochemical products. Comparison of model results with measurements of pertinent species allows us to understand whether there are major shortcomings in our understanding of tropospheric photochemistry, the budgets and transport of trace species, and their effects in the atmosphere. Through this activity, we are building the capability to make confident predictions of the future consequences of anthropogenic emissions. This paper compares IGAC recommended emissions inventories for reactive nitrogen and sulfur dioxide to those that have been in use previously. We also present results from the three-dimensional LLNL atmospheric chemistry model that show how emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides might potentially affect tropospheric ozone and OH concentrations and how emissions of anthropogenic sulfur increase sulfate aerosol loadings

Interactions of Reduced Deforestation and the Carbon Market: The Role of Market Regulations and Future Commitments

OpenAIRE

Anger, Niels; Dixon, Alistair; Livengood, Erich

2009-01-01

Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) has been proposed as a potentially inexpensive and plentiful source of emission abatement to supplement other longterm climate policies. However, critics doubt that REDD credits are environmentally equivalent to domestic emission reductions, and suggest an excess supply may disrupt carbon markets. In this context, we investigate the economic implications of emissions market regulations and future emissions reduction commitments, as ...

Future trends in environmental mercury concentrations: implications for prevention strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunderland Elsie M

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract In their new paper, Bellanger and coauthors show substantial economic impacts to the EU from neurocognitive impairment associated with methylmercury (MeHg exposures. The main source of MeHg exposure is seafood consumption, including many marine species harvested from the global oceans. Fish, birds and other wildlife are also susceptible to the impacts of MeHg and already exceed toxicological thresholds in vulnerable regions like the Arctic. Most future emissions scenarios project a growth or stabilization of anthropogenic mercury releases relative to present-day levels. At these emissions levels, inputs of mercury to ecosystems are expected to increase substantially in the future, in part due to growth in the legacy reservoirs of mercury in oceanic and terrestrial ecosystems. Seawater mercury concentration trajectories in areas such as the North Pacific Ocean that supply large quantities of marine fish to the global seafood market are projected to increase by more than 50% by 2050. Fish mercury levels and subsequent human and biological exposures are likely to also increase because production of MeHg in ocean ecosystems is driven by the supply of available inorganic mercury, among other factors. Analyses that only consider changes in primary anthropogenic emissions are likely to underestimate the severity of future deposition and concentration increases associated with growth in mercury reservoirs in the land and ocean. We therefore recommend that future policy analyses consider the fully coupled interactions among short and long-lived reservoirs of mercury in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial ecosystems. Aggressive anthropogenic emission reductions are needed to reduce MeHg exposures and associated health impacts on humans and wildlife and protect the integrity of one of the last wild-food sources globally. In the near-term, public health advice on safe fish consumption choices such as smaller species, younger fish, and harvests

Induced γ emission for nuclear isomer long-lived

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Tianli; Hao Fanhua

2007-06-01

It is pointed that the induced 7 emission for long lived isomer 178m2 Hf by low energy X rays has been a topic subject in the nuclear field recently. The background and development status are described. A principle for T ray transitions induced by X rays and the theoretical about magnificent induced emission have been related. In addition, the possible method of 178m2 Hf produce has been introduced also. Although the argument has existed for the experimental results of induced 7 emission, it can push forward in solving energy crisis and in future military field after controlling effectively the releasing of high excited energy for isomer. (authors)

Effects of flooding-induced N2O production, consumption and emission dynamics on the annual N2O emission budget in wetland soil

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Christian Juncher; Elberling, Bo

2012-01-01

during mid-summer when the WL was at its seasonally lowest counterbalancing ~6.4% of the total annual net N2O emission budget. Main surface emission periods of N2O were observed when the water level and associated peaks in subsurface N2O concentrations were gradually decreasing to soil depths down to 40...... production and consumption capacities where >500 nmol N2O cm-3 were sequentially produced and consumed in less than 24 hrs. It is concluded that a higher future frequency of flooding induced N2O emissions will have a very limited effect on the net annual N2O emission budget as long as NO3- availability...

Managing the diffusion of low emission vehicles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vooren, A. van der; Alkemade, F.

2012-01-01

There is significant uncertainty among technology providers, governments, and consumers about which technology will be the vehicle technology of the future. Governments try to stimulate the diffusion of low emission vehicles with diverse policy measures such as purchase price subsidies. However, the

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.; McKenzie, E.; Tao, W.; Vimmerstedt, L.

2013-03-01

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); DeFlorio, J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); McKenzie, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Tao, W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States)

2013-03-01

Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

Emissions of NO, NO2 and PM from inland shipping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Kurtenbach

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Particulate matter (PM and nitrogen oxides NOx (NOx =  NO2+ NO are key species for urban air quality in Europe and are emitted by mobile sources. According to European recommendations, a significant fraction of road freight should be shifted to waterborne transport in the future. In order to better consider this emission change pattern in future emission inventories, in the present study inland water transport emissions of NOx, CO2 and PM were investigated under real world conditions on the river Rhine, Germany, in 2013. An average NO2 ∕ NOx emission ratio of 0.08 ± 0.02 was obtained, which is indicative of ship diesel engines without exhaust gas aftertreatment systems. For all measured motor ship types and operation conditions, overall weighted average emission indices (EIs, as emitted mass of pollutant per kg burnt fuel of EINOx =  54 ± 4 g kg−1 and a lower limit EIPM1 ≥  2.0 ± 0.3 g kg−1, were obtained. EIs for NOx and PM1 were found to be in the range of 20–161 and  ≥  0.2–8.1 g kg−1 respectively. A comparison with threshold values of national German guidelines shows that the NOx emissions of all investigated motor ship types are above the threshold values, while the obtained lower limit PM1 emissions are just under. To reduce NOx emissions to acceptable values, implementation of exhaust gas aftertreatment systems is recommended.

Land use efficiency: anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryan, Brett A; Crossman, Neville D; Nolan, Martin; Li, Jing; Navarro, Javier; Connor, Jeffery D

2015-11-01

Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Measurement of air pollutant emissions from Lome, Cotonou and Accra

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, James; Vaughan, Adam; Nelson, Bethany; Young, Stuart; Evans, Mathew; Morris, Eleanor; Ladkin, Russel

2017-04-01

High concentrations of airborne pollutants (e.g. the oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide) in existing and evolving cities along the Guinea Coast cause respiratory diseases with potentially large costs to human health and the economic capacity of the local workforce. It is important to understand the rate of emission of such pollutants in order to model current and future air quality and provide guidance to the potential outcomes of air pollution abatement strategies. Often dated technologies and poor emission control strategies lead to substantial uncertainties in emission estimates calculated from vehicle and population number density statistics. The unreliable electrical supply in cities in the area has led to an increased reliance on small-scale diesel powered generators and these potentially present a significant source of emissions. The uncontrolled open incineration of waste adds a further very poorly constrained emission source within the cities. The DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project involved a field campaign which used highly instrumented aircraft capable of in situ measurements of a range of air pollutants. Seven flights using the UK British Antarctic Survey's Twin Otter aircraft specifically targeted air pollution emissions from cities in West Africa (4 x Accra, Ghana; 2 x Lome, Togo and 1 x Cotonou, Benin). Measurements of NO, NO2, SO2, CO, CH4 and CO2 were made at multiple altitudes upwind and downwind of the cities, with the mass balance technique used to calculate emission rates. These are then compared to the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) estimates. Ultimately the data will be used to inform on and potentially improve the emission estimates, which in turn should lead to better forecasting of air pollution in West African cities and help guide future air pollution abatement strategy.

Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Benveniste, Hélène; Boucher, Olivier; Guivarch, Céline; Le Treut, Hervé; Criqui, Patrick

2018-01-01

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change before and after the 21st Conference of Parties, summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for the format of NDCs, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8-66.5 Gt CO2eq yr-1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010-2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming ‘climate regime’: a clearer framework regarding future NDCs’ design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.

Global emissions inventories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dignon, J.

1995-07-01

Atmospheric chemistry determines the concentrations of most of the important greenhouse gases except for carbon dioxide. The rate of removal of the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also controlled by atmospheric chemistry. The indirect effects of chemical forcing resulting from the chemical interactions of other species can also affect the concentrations of radiatively important gases such as ozone. In order to establish the contribution of any possible climatic change attributable to individual greenhouse gases, spatially and temporally resolved estimates of their emissions need to be established. Unfortunately, for most of the radiatively important species the global magnitudes of their individual fluxes are not known to better than a factor of two and their spatial distributions are even more poorly characterized. Efforts to estimate future projections of potential impacts and to monitor international agreements will require continued research to narrow the uncertainties of magnitude and geographical distribution of emissions

Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

2010-01-01

The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Emission characteristics of kerosene-air spray combustion with plasma assistance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xingjian Liu

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A plasma assisted combustion system for combustion of kerosene-air mixtures was developed to study emission levels of O2, CO2, CO, and NOx. The emission measurement was conducted by Testo 350-Pro Flue Gas Analyzer. The effect of duty ratio, feedstock gas flow rate and applied voltage on emission performance has been analyzed. The results show that O2 and CO emissions reduce with an increase of applied voltage, while CO2 and NOx emissions increase. Besides, when duty ratio or feedstock gas flow rate decreases, the same emission results would appear. The emission spectrum of the air plasma of plasma assisted combustion actuator was also registered to analyze the kinetic enhancement effect of plasma, and the generation of ozone was believed to be the main factor that plasma makes a difference in our experiment. These results are valuable for the future optimization of kerosene-fueled aircraft engine when using plasma assisted combustion devices to exert emission control.

High-energy Neutrino Emission from Short Gamma-Ray Bursts: Prospects for Coincident Detection with Gravitational Waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kimura, Shigeo S.; Murase, Kohta; Mészáros, Peter [Department of Physics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Kiuchi, Kenta [Center for Gravitational Physics, Yukawa Institute for Theoretical Physics, Kyoto, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan)

2017-10-10

We investigate current and future prospects for coincident detection of high-energy neutrinos and gravitational waves (GWs). Short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) are believed to originate from mergers of compact star binaries involving neutron stars. We estimate high-energy neutrino fluences from prompt emission, extended emission (EE), X-ray flares, and plateau emission, and we show that neutrino signals associated with the EE are the most promising. Assuming that the cosmic-ray loading factor is ∼10 and the Lorentz factor distribution is lognormal, we calculate the probability of neutrino detection from EE by current and future neutrino detectors, and we find that the quasi-simultaneous detection of high-energy neutrinos, gamma-rays, and GWs is possible with future instruments or even with current instruments for nearby SGRBs having EE. We also discuss stacking analyses that will also be useful with future experiments such as IceCube-Gen2.

Room to move: 'ecological space' and emissions equity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MacGregor, James; Chambwera, Muyeye

2007-12-15

Tackling climate change will involve a monumental balancing act. How can we effectively curb emissions while ensuring that poor countries are not restricted in their efforts to develop sustainably? The concept of 'ecological space' offers a viable solution. By measuring and comparing countries' greenhouse gas emissions, we can pinpoint their share of the total remaining emissions the planet can sustain without serious disruption to climate. The relatively low emissions of poor countries — and the per capita levels for the poorest are just 2 per cent of those in the US — allow them the ecological space for nonrestrictive economic development. Overall, the concept is a workable guide to achieving emissions equity while collectively moving towards a low-carbon future.

Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.

2011-12-01

Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.

Future concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases CO2, CFC and CH4 - an assessment on the educational level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoppenau, S.

1992-01-01

A model on the educational level is described to estimate effective future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. The effects of chlorofluorocarbon and methane emission and deforestation are taken into account. The influence of different emission scenarios on the time evolution of greenhouse-gas concentration are illustrated. Future global energy policies are discussed both under the aspects of rising world population and the reduction in global CO 2 emissions. The model can be handled on a PC or even on a pocket calculator

Impacts of Renewable Energy Quota System on China's Future Power Sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xiong, Weiming; Zhang, Da; Mischke, Peggy

2014-01-01

As the biggest carbon emitting sector which produces 44% of current national carbon emission in China, the coal-dominated power sector has a tremendous potential for CO2 mitigation in the next two decades. Renewable energy quota system is currently discussed as a potential future policy instrument...... for the power sector, which requires certain fraction of renewable energy in total power generation for each province and grid zone. The quantitative studies on renewable energy quota for China are still very limited. Based on a least-cost and technology-rich power generation and transmission expansion model...... for China, this study examines the impacts of renewable energy quota system and carbon cap policy instruments on the future Chinese power sector. Various scenarios are examined toward 2030 and their future power generation mix, capacity installations and carbon emission are discussed. This study concludes...

Non-exhaust PM emissions from electric vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

Timmers, Victor R. J. H.; Achten, Peter A. J.

2016-06-01

Particulate matter (PM) exposure has been linked to adverse health effects by numerous studies. Therefore, governments have been heavily incentivising the market to switch to electric passenger cars in order to reduce air pollution. However, this literature review suggests that electric vehicles may not reduce levels of PM as much as expected, because of their relatively high weight. By analysing the existing literature on non-exhaust emissions of different vehicle categories, this review found that there is a positive relationship between weight and non-exhaust PM emission factors. In addition, electric vehicles (EVs) were found to be 24% heavier than equivalent internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). As a result, total PM10 emissions from EVs were found to be equal to those of modern ICEVs. PM2.5 emissions were only 1-3% lower for EVs compared to modern ICEVs. Therefore, it could be concluded that the increased popularity of electric vehicles will likely not have a great effect on PM levels. Non-exhaust emissions already account for over 90% of PM10 and 85% of PM2.5 emissions from traffic. These proportions will continue to increase as exhaust standards improve and average vehicle weight increases. Future policy should consequently focus on setting standards for non-exhaust emissions and encouraging weight reduction of all vehicles to significantly reduce PM emissions from traffic.

SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

1995-01-01

Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Identifying and characterizing major emission point sources as a basis for geospatial distribution of mercury emissions inventories

Science.gov (United States)

Steenhuisen, Frits; Wilson, Simon J.

2015-07-01

Mercury is a global pollutant that poses threats to ecosystem and human health. Due to its global transport, mercury contamination is found in regions of the Earth that are remote from major emissions areas, including the Polar regions. Global anthropogenic emission inventories identify important sectors and industries responsible for emissions at a national level; however, to be useful for air transport modelling, more precise information on the locations of emission is required. This paper describes the methodology applied, and the results of work that was conducted to assign anthropogenic mercury emissions to point sources as part of geospatial mapping of the 2010 global anthropogenic mercury emissions inventory prepared by AMAP/UNEP. Major point-source emission sectors addressed in this work account for about 850 tonnes of the emissions included in the 2010 inventory. This work allocated more than 90% of these emissions to some 4600 identified point source locations, including significantly more point source locations in Africa, Asia, Australia and South America than had been identified during previous work to geospatially-distribute the 2005 global inventory. The results demonstrate the utility and the limitations of using existing, mainly public domain resources to accomplish this work. Assumptions necessary to make use of selected online resources are discussed, as are artefacts that can arise when these assumptions are applied to assign (national-sector) emissions estimates to point sources in various countries and regions. Notwithstanding the limitations of the available information, the value of this procedure over alternative methods commonly used to geo-spatially distribute emissions, such as use of 'proxy' datasets to represent emissions patterns, is illustrated. Improvements in information that would facilitate greater use of these methods in future work to assign emissions to point-sources are discussed. These include improvements to both national

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

2014-01-01

Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

Guidance document to the BC emission offsets regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-11-01

British Columbia's (BC) emission offset regulations were established under the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets Act passed in 2007. Targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions included a 6 percent reduction by 2012; an 18 percent reduction by 2016; a 33 percent reduction by 2020; and an 80 percent reduction by 2050. Carbon neutral agreements began in 2008, and covered emissions produced from government business travel and by provincial government ministries and agencies. This report presented a list of key recommendations developed by the Pacific Carbon Trust for use in future carbon offset projects. Recommendations included the use of correct emission factors when quantifying projected emission reductions from an offset project; the use of a robust data management system; and the use of evidence in supporting additionality arguments. The document outlined planning procedures for project baseline selection processes, protocol selections, and the identification of sources sinks and reservoirs. Issues related to quantification and measurements, emissions factors, and accuracy and uncertainty were also addressed. Validation, verification, and contracting options were also presented. 6 tabs., 3 figs.

Vehicle-use intensity in China: Current status and future trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huo Hong; Zhang Qiang; He Kebin; Yao Zhiliang; Wang, Michael

2012-01-01

Vehicle-use intensity (kilometers traveled per vehicle per year or VKT) is important because it directly affects simulation results for vehicle fuel use and emissions, but the poor understanding of VKT in China could significantly affect the accuracy of estimation of total fuel use and CO 2 emissions, and thus impair precise evaluation of the effects of associated energy and environmental policies. As an important component of our work on the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impacts (FEEI) model, we collected VKT survey data in China from available sources and conducted additional surveys during 2004 and 2010, from which we derived VKT values and VKT-age functions by vehicle type for China. We also projected the future VKT for China by examining the relationship of vehicle use to per-capita GDP in 20 other countries worldwide. The purpose of this work is to achieve a better understanding of vehicle-use intensity in China and to generate reliable VKT input (current and future VKT levels) for the FEEI model. The VKT results obtained from this work could also benefit other work in the field associated with vehicle energy use and emissions. - Highlights: ► VKT is key in estimating fuel use and emissions, but its knowledge is poor in China. ► We determined VKT in China from available survey data and the surveys we conducted. ► VKT-age functions by vehicle type were derived from the surveys we conducted. ► Future VKT was projected based on vehicle use to per-capita GDP in 20 countries.

Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendriks, C.; Forsell, N.; Kiesewetter, G.; Schaap, M.; Schöpp, W.

2016-01-01

Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly

Explosive growth in African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liousse, C; Rosset, R; Assamoi, E; Criqui, P; Granier, C

2014-01-01

Emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. There is currently no regional emissions inventory that provides estimates of anthropogenic combustion for the African continent. This work provides a quantification of the evolution of African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030, using a bottom-up method. This inventory predicts very large increases in black carbon, organic carbon, CO, NO x , SO 2 and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions if no emission regulations are implemented. This paper discusses the effectiveness of scenarios involving certain fuels, specific to Africa in each activity sector and each region (western, eastern, northern and southern Africa), to reduce the emissions. The estimated trends in African emissions are consistent with emissions provided by global inventories, but they display a larger range of values. African combustion emissions contributed significantly to global emissions in 2005. This contribution will increase more significantly by 2030: organic carbon emissions will for example make up 50% of the global emissions in 2030. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of African anthropogenic emissions could be similar to African biomass burning emissions around 2030. (paper)

Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production in Russia: Current status and possible scenarios for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ginzburg, V.

1998-01-01

In accordance with the framework Convention on Climate Change that was signed and ratified by Russian Federation, periodical reports about the actions of Russia are published. An inventory of human origin sources of greenhouse gas was prepared. Carbondioxide represented 72% of total greenhouse das emissions. Policy and action plans for limiting of greenhouse gas emissions are developing

Estimating U.S. Methane Emissions from the Natural Gas Supply Chain. Approaches, Uncertainties, Current Estimates, and Future Studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heath, Garvin [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Brandt, Adam [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

2015-08-01

A growing number of studies have raised questions regarding uncertainties in our understanding of methane (CH₄) emissions from fugitives and venting along the natural gas (NG) supply chain. In particular, a number of measurement studies have suggested that actual levels of CH₄ emissions may be higher than estimated by EPA" tm s U.S. GHG Emission Inventory. We reviewed the literature to identify the growing number of studies that have raised questions regarding uncertainties in our understanding of methane (CH₄) emissions from fugitives and venting along the natural gas (NG) supply chain.

Towards Verifying National CO2 Emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Fung, I. Y.; Wuerth, S. M.; Anderson, J. L.

2017-12-01

With the Paris Agreement, nations around the world have pledged their voluntary reductions in future CO2 emissions. Satellite observations of atmospheric CO2 have the potential to verify self-reported emission statistics around the globe. We present a carbon-weather data assimilation system, wherein raw weather observations together with satellite observations of the mixing ratio of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 are assimilated every 6 hours into the NCAR carbon-climate model CAM5 coupled to the Ensemble Kalman Filter of DART. In an OSSE, we reduced the fossil fuel emissions from a country, and estimated the emissions innovations demanded by the atmospheric CO2 observations. The uncertainties in the innovation are analyzed with respect to the uncertainties in the meteorology to determine the significance of the result. The work follows from "On the use of incomplete historical data to infer the present state of the atmosphere" (Charney et al. 1969), which maps the path for continuous data assimilation for weather forecasting and the five decades of progress since.

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan Xiaoyu; Crookes, Roy J.

2009-01-01

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The 'Business as Usual' scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The 'Best Case' scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the 'Best Case' scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

Science.gov (United States)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Measuring Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Across California Land Cover

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, M. L.

2017-12-01

Significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are needed to limit rising planetary temperatures that will otherwise limit Earth's capacity to support life, introducing geopolitical instability. To help mitigate this threat, California has legislated landmark reductions in state-level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that set an example for broader action. Beginning with relatively assured reduction of current emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, future goals are much more challenging with 40% and 80% reductions below 1990 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. While the majority of the reductions must focus on fossil fuels, inventory estimates of non-CO2 GHG emissions (i.e., CH4, N2O, and industrial compounds) constitute 15% of the total, suggesting reductions are required across multiple land use sectors. However, recent atmospheric inversion studies show methane and nitrous oxide (CH4 & N2O) emissions exceed current inventory estimates by factors of 1.2-1.8 and 1.6-2.6 (at 95% confidence), respectively, perhaps constituting up to 30% of State total emissions. The discrepancy is likely because current bottom-up models used for inventories do not accurately capture important management or biophysical factors. In the near term, process level experiments and sector-specific inversions are being planned to quantify the factors controlling non-CO2 GHG emissions for several of the dominant emission sectors. For biosphere carbon, California forests lands, which also depend on the combination of management, climate, and weather, lost above ground carbon from 2001-2010, and may be expected to lose soil and root carbon as a longer-term result. Here, it is important to identify and apply the best principles in forestry and agriculture to increase carbon stocks in depleted forest and agricultural areas, focusing on approaches that provide resilience to future climate and weather variations. Taken together, improved atmospheric, plant, and soil observations, together

Competitiveness of terrestrial greenhouse gas offsets. Are they a bridge to the future?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCarl, B.A.; Sands, R.D.

2007-01-01

Activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by biological soil or forest carbon sequestration predominantly utilize currently known, readily implementable technologies. Many other greenhouse gas emission reduction options require future technological development or must wait for turnover of capital stock. Carbon sequestration options in soils and forests, while ready to go now, generally have a finite life, allowing use until other strategies are developed. This paper reports on an investigation of the competitiveness of biological carbon sequestration from a dynamic and multiple strategy viewpoint. Key factors affecting the competitiveness of terrestrial mitigation options are land availability and cost effectiveness relative to other options including CO2 capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, fuel switching, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission reductions. The analysis results show that, at lower CO2 prices and in the near term, soil carbon and other agricultural/forestry options can be important bridges to the future, initially providing a substantial portion of attainable reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions, but with a limited role in later years. At higher CO2 prices, afforestation and biofuels are more dominant among terrestrial options to offset greenhouse gas emissions. But in the longer run, allowing for capital stock turnover, options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the energy system and biofuels provide an increasing share of potential reductions in total US greenhouse gas emissions

Quantifying global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions: from OCO-2 to optimal observing designs

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, X.; Lauvaux, T.; Kort, E. A.; Oda, T.; Feng, S.; Lin, J. C.; Yang, E. G.; Wu, D.; Kuze, A.; Suto, H.; Eldering, A.

2017-12-01

Cities house more than half of the world's population and are responsible for more than 70% of the world anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Therefore, quantifications of emissions from major cities, which are only less than a hundred intense emitting spots across the globe, should allow us to monitor changes in global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, in an independent, objective way. Satellite platforms provide favorable temporal and spatial coverage to collect urban CO2 data to quantify the anthropogenic contributions to the global carbon budget. We present here the optimal observation design for future NASA's OCO-2 and Japanese GOSAT missions, based on real-data (i.e. OCO-2) experiments and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE's) to address different error components in the urban CO2 budget calculation. We identify the major sources of emission uncertainties for various types of cities with different ecosystems and geographical features, such as urban plumes over flat terrains, accumulated enhancements within basins, and complex weather regimes in coastal areas. Atmospheric transport errors were characterized under various meteorological conditions using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km spatial resolution, coupled to the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC) emissions. We propose and discuss the optimized urban sampling strategies to address some difficulties from the seasonality in cloud cover and emissions, vegetation density in and around cities, and address the daytime sampling bias using prescribed diurnal cycles. These factors are combined in pseudo data experiments in which we evaluate the relative impact of uncertainties on inverse estimates of CO2 emissions for cities across latitudinal and climatological zones. We propose here several sampling strategies to minimize the uncertainties in target mode for tracking urban fossil-fuel CO2 emissions over the globe for future satellite missions, such as OCO-3 and future

DAMES. A datafile for the macro-emissions of the Dutch electricity supply in 1995, 1998, 2010, 2020, and 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gijsen, A.; Spakman, J.

2001-02-01

This report describes the datafile DAMES (Dutch abbreviation for Database Macro-emissions of the Electricity Sector). DAMES offers an overall view of the Netherlands' electricity supply and it's attendant emissions of CO2, NOx and SO2. It incorporates results from different sources: (1) monitoring reports on production and emissions from central power plants, (2) an electricity supply model for future years and (3) a database with actual and future emission factors. In DAMES, the electricity supply has been divided into contributions from: central production (electricity produced by companies producing electricity as core business), decentralized production (electricity produced by companies producing electricity as by-product) and the import balance. Within these three 'subsectors', DAMES calculates production and emissions on the level of installation types. For combined heat and power production (CHP-installations), DAMES allocates a distinct fraction of the total emissions to the produced electricity. DAMES calculates aggregated emissions per kWh, an indicator that is often used in calculations on effectiveness measures. Furthermore, DAMES has an advantage over previous used instruments that it gives an integral overview of the effect of the fuel-mix, CHP, imports and the part of sustainable energy sources. DAMES has been applied on the years 1995/1998 and the future years 2010, 2020 and 2030. For the future years, prognoses have been used from two different scenarios of the CPB (Dutch Central Planning Bureau). These scenarios are called Global Competition and European Coordination. 18 refs

Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

2013-01-01

The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

FUTURE FOSSIL FUEL PRICE IMPACTS ON NDC ACHIEVEMENT; ESTIMATION OF GHG EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION COSTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yosuke Arino

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Shale Revolution in the US, a supply-side innovation in oil and gas production, has been dramatically changing the world’s fossil fuel energy markets – leading to a decrease in oil, gas and coal prices. Some projections suggest that low fossil fuel prices might continue at least over the next few decades. Uncertainty in fossil fuel prices might affect the levels of emission reductions expected from submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs and/or influence the difficulty of achieving the NDCs. This paper evaluated the impact of different (high, medium, and low fossil fuel prices, sustained through to 2050, on worldwide GHG emissions reductions and associated costs (mainly marginal abatement costs (MACs. Total global GHG emissions were estimated to be 57.5-61.5 GtCO2eq by 2030, with the range shown reflecting uncertainties about fossil fuel prices and the target levels of several NDCs (i.e., whether their upper or lower targets were adopted. It was found that lower fuel prices not only diminished the environmental effectiveness of global NDCs but also widened regional differences of marginal and total abatement costs, thereby generating more room for carbon leakage. One possible policy direction in terms of abatement efficiency, fairness and environmental effectiveness would be to require countries with low marginal and total abatement costs but having a major influence on global GHG emissions (such as China and India to increase their mitigation efforts, especially in a low-fuelprice world.

Bulk energy storage increases United States electricity system emissions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hittinger, Eric S; Azevedo, Inês M L

2015-03-03

Bulk energy storage is generally considered an important contributor for the transition toward a more flexible and sustainable electricity system. Although economically valuable, storage is not fundamentally a "green" technology, leading to reductions in emissions. We model the economic and emissions effects of bulk energy storage providing an energy arbitrage service. We calculate the profits under two scenarios (perfect and imperfect information about future electricity prices), and estimate the effect of bulk storage on net emissions of CO2, SO2, and NOx for 20 eGRID subregions in the United States. We find that net system CO2 emissions resulting from storage operation are nontrivial when compared to the emissions from electricity generation, ranging from 104 to 407 kg/MWh of delivered energy depending on location, storage operation mode, and assumptions regarding carbon intensity. Net NOx emissions range from -0.16 (i.e., producing net savings) to 0.49 kg/MWh, and are generally small when compared to average generation-related emissions. Net SO2 emissions from storage operation range from -0.01 to 1.7 kg/MWh, depending on location and storage operation mode.

Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karali, Nihan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Park, Won Young [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McNeil, Michael A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-06-18

Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO₂ emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in the future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO₂ emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically

Swedish CO2-emissions 1900-2010: an exploratory note

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristroem, Bengt; Lundgren, Tommy

2005-01-01

This paper projects Swedish CO 2 -emissions during the period 2000-2010 based on data covering 1900-1999. Swedish climate policy is currently based on the assumption that carbon emissions will increase, ceteris paribus, by 5-15% relative to the 1990 level. This forecast has motivated a number of policy measures, including carbon taxes, subsidies and an 'information package'. We find, however, that CO 2 -emissions may well be lower in the future. This outcome is broadly consistent with the literature on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which portrays the relationship between emissions and GDP. The key contribution of this paper is that our analysis is based on a long time series. Current literature is invariably based on 'short' panel data sets, while we study a single country through several phases of development. Our analysis also sheds some light on the key importance played by nuclear power for carbon emission projections

EU Emission Trading: Starting with Carbon Dioxide

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vesterdal, Morten; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard

2003-01-01

The Commission of the European Union wants to start a limited emission trading scheme by 2005 within the Community to enable "learning-by-doing" prior to the Kyoto Protocol. This to accomplish the desired 8% target level for six different greenhouse gases. However, in the EU it is not clear whether...... all the six relevant greenhouse gases or only CO2 should be traded. What is the simplest and most practicable solution? We argue in favour of the latter option for three main reasons: the possible dominating global warming potential of CO2, expected future developments in CO2 emissions and the fact...

Positron computed tomography: current state, clinical results and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schelbert, H.R.; Phelps, M.E.; Kuhl, D.E.

1980-01-01

An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends

Accounting For Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Flooded ...

Science.gov (United States)

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the inundation of rivers and terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can lead to enhanced rates of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. The research approaches include 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions. To inform th

Accouting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Beaulieu, J. J.; Deemer, B. R.; Harrison, J. A.; Nietch, C. T.; Waldo, S.

2016-12-01

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used as a `basis for future methodological development' due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. In the U.S., research approaches include: 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions linked to the National Lakes Assessment.

Modeling of greenhouse gas emission from livestock

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjo eJose

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The effects of climate change on humans and other living ecosystems is an area of on-going research. The ruminant livestock sector is considered to be one of the most significant contributors to the existing greenhouse gas (GHG pool. However the there are opportunities to combat climate change by reducing the emission of GHGs from ruminants. Methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O are emitted by ruminants via anaerobic digestion of organic matter in the rumen and manure, and by denitrification and nitrification processes which occur in manure. The quantification of these emissions by experimental methods is difficult and takes considerable time for analysis of the implications of the outputs from empirical studies, and for adaptation and mitigation strategies to be developed. To overcome these problems computer simulation models offer substantial scope for predicting GHG emissions. These models often include all farm activities while accurately predicting the GHG emissions including both direct as well as indirect sources. The models are fast and efficient in predicting emissions and provide valuable information on implementing the appropriate GHG mitigation strategies on farms. Further, these models help in testing the efficacy of various mitigation strategies that are employed to reduce GHG emissions. These models can be used to determine future adaptation and mitigation strategies, to reduce GHG emissions thereby combating livestock induced climate change.

Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Knorr

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

Future carbon regulations and current investments in alternative coal-fired power plant technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekar, Ram C.; Parsons, John E.; Herzog, Howard J.; Jacoby, Henry D.

2007-01-01

We analyze how uncertain future US carbon regulations shape the current choice of the type of power plant to build. Our focus is on two coal-fired technologies, pulverized coal (PC) and integrated coal gasification combined cycle technology (IGCC). The PC technology is cheapest-assuming there is no need to control carbon emissions. The IGCC technology may be cheaper if carbon must be captured. Since power plants last many years and future regulations are uncertain, a US electric utility faces a standard decision under uncertainty. A company will confront the range of possible outcomes, assigning its best estimate of the probability of each scenario, averaging the results and determining the power plant technology with the lowest possible cost inclusive of expected future carbon related costs, whether those costs be in the form of emissions charges paid or capital expenditures for retrofitting to capture carbon. If the company assigns high probability to no regulation or to less stringent regulation of carbon, then it makes sense for it to build the PC plant. But if it assigns sufficient probability to scenarios with more stringent regulation, then the IGCC technology is warranted. We provide some useful benchmarks for possible future regulation and show how these relate back to the relative costs of the two technologies and the optimal technology choice. Few of the policy proposals widely referenced in the public discussion warrant the choice of the IGCC technology. Instead, the PC technology remains the least costly. However, recent carbon prices in the European Emissions Trading System are higher than these benchmarks. If it is any guide to possible future penalties for emissions in the US, then current investment in the IGCC technology is warranted. Of course, other factors need to be factored into the decision as well

Reference Projections Energy and Emissions 2005-2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Dril, A.W.N.; Elzenga, H.E.

2005-10-01

The Reference Projection 2005-2020 covers the future development of Dutch energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution up to 2020. The Reference projection is based on assumptions regarding economic, structural, technological and policy developments. Two scenarios have been used. The Strong Europe (SE) scenario is characterized by moderate economic growth and strong public responsibility. The Global Economy (GE) scenario assumes high economic growth and has a strong orientation towards private responsibility. Energy consumption continues to grow in both scenarios and energy intensity is declining in the GE-scenario. Gradual rise of temperature is now included in the estimates for space heating and air conditioning. Energy prices for end users will rise, due to increased imports of natural gas and rising costs of electricity generation. The share of renewables in electricity consumption increases considerably due to subsidies for wind at sea and biomass, up to the target of 9% in 2010. Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are reduced and stabilise after 2010. The Dutch Kyoto target is probably met in both scenarios, assuming considerable emission reduction ef-forts abroad. Acidifying emissions of NOx and SO2 stabilise after reductions, but at levels that exceed their national emission ceiling (NEC). Emissions of volatile organic compounds are projected to fall with approximately 25% between 2002 and 2010 below their NEC. Emissions of ammonia are projected to meet their NEC. The emission of particulate matter (PM10) will stabilise at present levels

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fyke, Jeremy; Matthews, H Damon

2015-01-01

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO 2 -induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980–2012 historical CO 2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentration Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5–95th percentile ranges of 0.96–4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C–8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds. (letter)

670 investigating changes in coastal environment using internet

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Osondu

the basis of this background, access to geospatial data through internet technology has become ... refer to different things in the strictest sense. .... maps, previous literature, and ground survey .... across a broad range of industries and.

Influence of European passenger cars weight to exhaust CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zervas, Efthimios; Lazarou, Christos

2008-01-01

The increase of atmospheric CO 2 concentration influences climate changes. The road transport sector is one of the main anthropogenic sources of CO 2 emissions in the European Union (EU). One of the main parameters influencing CO 2 emissions from passenger cars (PCs) is their weight, which increases during last years. For the same driving distance, heavier vehicles need more work than lighter ones, because they have to move an extra weight, and thus more fuel is consumed and thus increased CO 2 emissions. The weight control of new PCs could be an efficient way to control their CO 2 emissions. After an analysis of the EU new PCs market, their segment distribution and their weight, some estimations for 2020 are presented. Based on this analysis, 13 base scenarios using several ways for the control of the weight of future European new PCs are used to estimate their CO 2 emissions and the benefit of each scenario. The results show that a significant benefit on CO 2 emissions could be achieved if the weight of each PC does not exceed an upper limit, especially if this limit is quite low. The benefit obtained by limitations of weight is higher than the benefit obtained from the expected decreased future fuel consumption. Similar results are obtained when the weight of new PCs does not exceed an upper limit within each segment, or when the weight of each new PC decreases. (author)

Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

2018-01-01

Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

High-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy with transition-edge sensors: present performance and future potential

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uhlig, J.; Doriese, W. B.; Fowler, J. W.; Swetz, D. S.; Jaye, C.; Fischer, D. A.; Reintsema, C. D.; Bennett, D. A.; Vale, L. R.; Mandal, U.; O' Neil, G. C.; Miaja-Avila, L.; Joe, Y. I.; El Nahhas, A.; Fullagar, W.; Parnefjord Gustafsson, F.; Sundström, V.; Kurunthu, D.; Hilton, G. C.; Schmidt, D. R.; Ullom, J. N.

2015-04-21

X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) is a powerful element-selective tool to analyze the oxidation states of atoms in complex compounds, determine their electronic configuration, and identify unknown compounds in challenging environments. Until now the low efficiency of wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectrometer technology has limited the use of XES, especially in combination with weaker laboratory X-ray sources. More efficient energy-dispersive detectors have either insufficient energy resolution because of the statistical limits described by Fano or too low counting rates to be of practical use. This paper updates an approach to high-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy that uses a microcalorimeter detector array of superconducting transition-edge sensors (TESs). TES arrays are discussed and compared with conventional methods, and shown under which circumstances they are superior. It is also shown that a TES array can be integrated into a table-top time-resolved X-ray source and a soft X-ray synchrotron beamline to perform emission spectroscopy with good chemical sensitivity over a very wide range of energies.

Positron Computed Tomography: Current State, Clinical Results and Future Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Schelbert, H. R.; Phelps, M. E.; Kuhl, D. E.

1980-09-01

An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

Positron computed tomography: current state, clinical results and future trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schelbert, H.R.; Phelps, M.E.; Kuhl, D.E.

1980-09-01

An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph

2016-01-01

The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.

Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

2017-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

1980-03-01

This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, including uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking, a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume III

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

1980-03-01

This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, including uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking, a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

1980-03-01

This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, includimg uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

Exoelectron emission and its application for dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawanishi, Masaharu

1975-01-01

The research on exoelectron emission has been recently very active in its fundamentals and applications. In the basic study, exoelectron emission and thermo-luminescence are explained by using energy band model. Physical and chemical properties of material surface, specifically surface adsorption phenomena, have been proven experimentally to give important effect on exoelectron emission by several people. It will be necessary in future that the identification of emitted particles and energy measurement become common in exoelectron physics. In spite of the difficulty to fabricate the uniformly stable materials emitting exoelectrons, much efforts are being made in the researches on the application to radiation dosimeters. The principal materials used to date are BeO, LiF, Al 2 O 3 , CaF 2 and CaSO 4 , the last one being most sensitive. On the other hand, the detectors for thermally stimulated exoelectron emission are important not only as dosimeters but for basic research promotion. The most convenient detector is a gas flow GM tube. Q gas or methane is used as flow gas. Though there remains many unknown fields in exoelectron emission mechanism, success in the application researches to effectively utilize their peculiarity and advantages is expected. (Wakatsuki, Y.)

Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

2011-01-01

Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

Science.gov (United States)

Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Simpson, David; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin D.; Landgren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

2018-01-01

Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to -3 % (-1.4 ppb). This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

1992-01-01

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

Advancing Understanding of Emissions from Oil and Natural ...

Science.gov (United States)

Executive Summary Environmentally responsible development of oil and gas assets requires well-developed emissions inventories and measurement techniques to verify emissions and the effectiveness of control strategies. To accurately model the oil and gas sector impacts on air quality, it is critical to have accurate activity data, emission factors and chemical speciation profiles for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). This report describes a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Region 8 Regional Applied Research Effort (RARE) effort executed in Fiscal Year (FY) 2014 to FY 2016 that aimed to improve information on upstream oil and production emissions and identify areas where future work is needed. The project involved both field activities and data analysis and synthesis work with emphasis on product-related VOC emissions from well pads. In oil and gas basins with significant condensate and oil production, VOC emissions from well pads primarily arise from the separation of gas and liquid products and the storage process, with the control of emissions usually accomplished by enclosed combustion devices (ECDs), such as flares. Fugitive emissions of VOCs can originate from leaks and from potentially ineffective control systems. In the case of ECDs, byproducts of incomplete combustion may produce more highly reactive ozone precursor species. For both compliance and scientific purposes, the abili