WorldWideScience

Sample records for strictest future emissions

  1. The future(s) of emission allowances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenzweig, K.M.; Villarreal, J.A.

    1993-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) established a sulfur dioxide emission allowance system to be implemented by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Under the two-phase implementation of the program, electric utilities responsible for approximately 70 percent of SO 2 emissions in the United States will be issued emission allowances, each representing authorization to emit one ton of sulfur dioxide during a specified calendar year or a later year. Allowances will be issued to utilities with electric-generating units affected by the CAAA limits, as well as to certain entities which may choose to opt-in to the program. Each utility or other emission source must hold a number of allowances at least equal to its total SO 2 emissions during any given year. Unused allowances may be sold, traded, or held in inventory for use against SO 2 emissions in future years. Anyone can buy and hold allowances, including affected utilities, non-utility companies, SO 2 allowances brokers and dealers, environmental groups, and individuals. During Phase I of the program, allowances equivalent to approximately 6.4 million tons of SO 2 emissions will be allocated annually to a group of 110 large, high-SO 2 -emitting power plants. In Phase II, virtually all power-generating utilities (representing approximately 99.4 percent of total US utility emissions) will be subject to the program. The number of allowances issued will increase to approximately 8.9 million a year, with certain special allocations raising the actual number issued to 9.48 million between the years 2000 to 2009, and 8.95 million yearly thereafter. Thus, the CAAA goal of annual emissions of 9 million tons should be achieved by 2010, when virtually all US emission sources will be participating in the program

  2. Future methane emissions from animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anastasi, C.; Simpson, V. J.

    1993-04-01

    The future global emission of CH4 from enteric fermentation in animals has been estimated for cattle, sheep, and buffalo, which together contribute approximately 91% of the total CH4 emitted from domesticated animals at present. A simple model has been used to relate livestock levels to the national human populations for each country involved in breeding the three species included in this analysis. United Nations population predictions to 2025 were then included in the model to estimate future CH4 emissions. A variational analysis was carried out to investigate the effect of future changes in both the land available for grazing and the nutritional content of feedstocks. Results suggest that the total emission of CH4 from enteric fermentation in domestic animals will increase from 84 Tg CH4 per year (Tg = 1012 g) in 1990 to 119 (±12) Tg CH4 yr-1 by 2025. These values correspond to an average rate of increase over the next 35 years of 1.0 Tg CH4 yr-1.

  3. Future Emissions from Railway Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorenson, Spencer C.

    1998-01-01

    In investigation of the expected development in factors which influence railway energy consumption and emissions. Traffic factors such as train speed, load, an occupancy were considered. Tehcnical factors such an emissions factors, fleet composition and train weight were also considered. An estim......In investigation of the expected development in factors which influence railway energy consumption and emissions. Traffic factors such as train speed, load, an occupancy were considered. Tehcnical factors such an emissions factors, fleet composition and train weight were also considered...

  4. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  5. Research on aircraft emissions. Need for future work

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitt, A. [German Aerospace Establishment, Cologne (Germany). Transport Research Div.

    1997-12-31

    Reflecting the present status of the research on aircraft emissions and their impacts upon the atmosphere, task-fields for a work programme for the research on aircraft emissions can be derived. Most important measures are to support the efforts to define adequate reduction measures, and (with highest priority) scenario-writing for the long-term development in aircraft emissions, to be able to include into the decision making process the aspect of in-time-reaction against unwanted future. Besides that, a steady monitoring of global aircraft emissions will be necessary. (author) 5 refs.

  6. Influence of economic factors on future global emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.B.; Poehnell, T.G.; Miller, A.I.; Tamm, J.A.

    2001-01-01

    The climate change debate is really about economics, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change potential at a reasonable and acceptable cost for everyone. In this paper, we examine the major economic factors behind defining climate change policies that relate to reducing GHG emissions, and the value to be placed on CO 2 . We examine the impacts and the 'cost of carbon' based on the studies of GHG reduction strategies in the US and the European Union (EU). We show that a series of self-defeating assumptions have been used in the latest analyses regarding relative future energy and power costs, and hence future GHG emissions. We estimate: the 'natural value' of GHG emissions based on world economic factors, the value of electricity and energy based on world data, the cost advantage of using a given new technology, and the value of avoided GHG emissions in future global and national climate change projections. The use of electricity is shown to be key in aiding economic growth for the entire world. Using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2000 climate change projections as a base, we reflect the impacts of differing energy prices on future global climate conditions and GHG reductions. We conduct a similar analysis for Canada using the latest 'Energy in Canada 2000' projections. We show how the use of advanced technology for the traditional production of electricity, and for hydrogen-based transportation fuels, can stabilize global emissions and assist in managing adverse climate change conditions without causing economic penalties. The method we develop is sufficiently general that it can be used for valuing the economic impact of the emission reductions for any technology. We estimate the embedded value and potential economic benefit of nuclear technology and electric contribution for both the world economy to 2100, and for the latest projections for Canada to 2020. (author)

  7. Trade and the Future of China's Black Carbon Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, G.; Oppenheimer, M.; Naik, V.

    2016-12-01

    Emissions of black carbon aerosols in China have increased by over 200% during the last 50 years, with negative implications both for human health and for regional and global climate. The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios all assume that China's future black carbon emissions will decrease. However, this decline partially depends on the assumption that the evolution of future pollutant emissions in developing nations will match the observed historical relationship between air quality and income in developed nations. Recent research has demonstrated that a substantial portion of China's current black carbon emissions are driven by the production of goods exported for consumption elsewhere. This constitutes an external demand for black carbon-emitting activity in China that is much smaller in the developed nations on which the historical air quality/income relationship is based. We here show using integrated assessment model output, general circulation modeling, and emissions and economic data that (1) China must achieve a faster technological and regulatory evolution than did developed countries in order achieve the same air quality/income trajectory; (2) China's uniquely large share of export-related black carbon-emitting activities and their potential growth are a plausible explanation for this disparity; and (3) the climate and health implications of these export-related black carbon emissions, if unmitigated, are of interest from a policy perspective. Together these results indicate that the production of goods for export will steepen the mitigation curve for China relative to developed nations, if China is to achieve the future black carbon emissions reductions assumed in the RCPs.

  8. Climate ObjectiVes and Feedback Effects on Future Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comyn-Platt, E.; Hayman, G.; Chadburn, S.; Huntingford, C.; Harper, A. B.; Cox, P. M.; Collins, W.; Burke, E.; Webber, C.

    2017-12-01

    Significant reductions in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and more than likely significant developments in carbon capture technology, will be required to satisfy the COP21 target of a maximum global temperature increase of 2°C, or the more ambitious target of 1.5°C. These target become even more ambitious when the natural climate feedbacks of permafrost thaw and increased methane emission from wetlands are considered. To quantify these requirements climate model simulations which follow a prescribed temperature trajectory can be used to infer permissible emissions and future carbon capture requirements (Huntingford et al., 2017). The JULES-IMOGEN framework (Huntingford et al., 2010) provides an intermediate complexity climate modelling system to examine the climate feedbacks of the land surface within the climate sensitivity bounds described by the 34 global circulation models (GCMs) from CMIP5 (climate model inter-comparison, phase 5; Taylor et al., 2012). Traditionally, JULES-IMOGEN simulations have used prescribed emission scenarios to drive future projections and examine the resulting changes in climate. This work used an inversion of the JULES-IMOGEN framework, i.e. driven with a prescribed future climate trajectory (Huntingford et al., 2017), such that the resultant atmospheric composition, and hence the permitted/required human contribution to it, is the focus of analysis. The results presented here demonstrate emission reductions and uptake pathways required based on a state-of-the-art configuration of JULES, and the additional reductions and uptake required when natural wetland methane and permafrost thaw feedbacks are also considered. This project has been conducted in parallel with two other projects whose focus were the impacts of methane mitigation and mitigation of land-use-change. The three combined projects will provide a range of policy related information for how humans should proceed in attempts to meet the COP21 targets.

  9. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  10. The regional impact of urban emissions on climate over central Europe: present and future emission perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huszár, Peter; Belda, Michal; Karlický, Jan; Pišoft, Petr; Halenka, Tomáš

    2016-10-01

    The regional climate model RegCM4.2 was coupled to the chemistry transport model CAMx, including two-way interactions, to evaluate the regional impact of urban emission from central European cities on climate for present-day (2001-2010) and future (2046-2055) periods, and for the future one only emission changes are considered. Short-lived non-CO2 emissions are considered and, for the future impact, only the emission changes are accounted for (the climate is kept "fixed"). The urban impact on climate is calculated with the annihilation approach in which two experiments are performed: one with all emissions included and one without urban emissions. The radiative impacts of non-CO2 primary and secondary formed pollutants are considered, namely ozone (O3), sulfates (PSO4), nitrates (PNO3), primary organic aerosol and primary elementary carbon (POA and PEC).The validation of the modelling system is limited to key climate parameters, near-surface temperature and precipitation. It shows that the model, in general, underestimates temperature and overestimates precipitation. We attribute this behaviour to an excess of cloudiness/water vapour present in the model atmosphere as a consequence of overpredicted evaporation from the surface.The impact on climate is characterised by statistically significant cooling of up to -0.02 and -0.04 K in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA), mainly over cities. We found that the main contributors to the cooling are the direct and indirect effects of the aerosols, while the ozone titration, calculated especially for DJF, plays rather a minor role. In accordance with the vertical extent of the urban-emission-induced aerosol perturbation, cooling dominates the first few model layers up to about 150 m in DJF and 1000 m in JJA. We found a clear diurnal cycle of the radiative impacts with maximum cooling just after noon (JJA) or later in afternoon (DJF). Furthermore, statistically significant decreases of surface radiation are modelled in accordance

  11. Predicting future UK housing stock and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natarajan, Sukumar; Levermore, Geoffrey J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for exploring future transformations in the UK housing stock. The method is shown to be more robust and faster than existing methods through various tests. A Java-based implementation of the method in a new model of the UK housing stock, DECarb, is examined using a back-cast scenario from 1970 to 1996. The results show an average difference of -5.4% between predicted and actual energy demand. Comparison with predicted carbon emissions from the BRE's BREHOMES model shows a difference of around -0.9% for the same period. These results suggest that DECarb is likely to be an effective tool in examining future scenarios since the same objects and processes used in back-casting in the model are also used in forecasting. The model has an open framework and could therefore significantly benefit ongoing domestic and non-domestic climate futures research

  12. Present and future emissions of HAPs from crematories in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yifeng; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Xiong, Chengcheng; Pan, Tao; Nie, Lei; Wu, Xiaoqing; Li, Jing; Wang, Wei; Gao, Jiajia; Zhu, Chuanyong; Wang, Kun

    2016-01-01

    China is the most populous country in the world. The amount of death population has reached 9.65 million and 49.5% of human corpses are cremated by about 1700 crematories spread throughout the country in 2012, leading to considerable discharge of various hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) into the atmosphere and great concerns on regional air quality and health risks for surrounding residents. By using the practicable or best available emission factors, for the first time, a multiple-year emission inventory of typical hazardous air pollutants discharged from crematories in the Chinese mainland, has been established for the historical period of 1990-2012, and the future trends of HAPs emissions until 2030 are forecasted based on three scenarios analysis. Our results show that the total emissions have gradually increased to 906 t of NOX, 443 t of SO2, 2713 t of CO, 477.7 t of PM, 377 t of HCl, 36 t of H2S, 25 t of NH3, 62 t of NMVOCs, 592 kg of Hg, 48 kg of Pb, 14 kg of Cd, 53 kg of As, 40 kg of Cr, 37 kg of Cu, 51 kg of Ni, and 96 g of PCDD/Fs as TEQ (toxic equivalent quantity) by the year 2012. Under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, various HAPs emitted from cremators would continuously increase with an average growth rate of 3% till to 2030; whereas the emissions will peak at around 2015 and then decline gradually with varied speed under the two improved control scenarios. To mitigate the associated air pollution and health risks caused by crematories, it is of great necessary for implementing more strict emission standards, applying combustion optimization and requiring installation of best available flue gas purification system, as well as powerful supervision for sound operation of crematories.

  13. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  14. Effects of future anthropogenic pollution emissions on global air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzer, A.; Zimmermann, P.; Doering, U.; van Aardenne, J.; Dentener, F.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-04-01

    The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC is used to estimate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes on global and regional air quality in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050). The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). By comparing with recent observations, it is shown that the model reproduces the main features of regional air pollution distributions though with some imprecision inherent to the coarse horizontal resolution (around 100 km). To identify possible future hot spots of poor air quality, a multi pollutant index (MPI) has been applied. It appears that East and South Asia and the Arabian Gulf regions represent such hotspots due to very high pollutant concentrations. In East Asia a range of pollutant gases and particulate matter (PM2.5) are projected to reach very high levels from 2005 onward, while in South Asia air pollution, including ozone, will grow rapidly towards the middle of the century. Around the Arabian Gulf, where natural PM2.5 concentrations are already high (desert dust), ozone levels will increase strongly. By extending the MPI definition, we calculated a Per Capita MPI (PCMPI) in which we combined population projections with those of pollution emissions. It thus appears that a rapidly increasing number of people worldwide will experience reduced air quality during the first half of the 21st century. It is projected that air quality for the global average citizen in 2050 will be comparable to the average in East Asia in the year 2005.

  15. Future needs for ship emission abatement and technical measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa ANTES

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The International Maritime Organization (IMO has revised air pollution regulations in MARPOL Annex VI. In 2012 Emission Control Areas (ECA will limit fuel sulphur content to 1% and from 2015 to 0.1%. NOx emissions based on ships engine speed are also reduced for new vessels (2012 & 2016. Facing this legislation, ship owners have the alternative either to operate ships with costly low-sulphur fuels, or to keep using HFO but together with a gas cleaning equipment at the ship stack in order to reduce the rejected amount of SO2 gas in the atmosphere. To achieve this requirement, research and development organizations came out with proposing a solution that uses a device for cleaning exhaust gas of marine diesel engines. The paper presents a short communication about the DEECON project, which aim is to create a novel on-board after-treatment unit more advanced than any currently available. Each sub-unit of the system will be optimized to remove a specific primary pollutant. In particular, the technology within the DEECON system is based on novel or improved abatement techniques for reducing SOx, NOx, Particulate Matter (PM, CO and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC. Some of these technologies are completely new for the maritime sector and they will represent a breakthrough in the reduction of the atmospheric emissions of ships, moving forward the performance of exhaust gas cleaning systems and fostering and anticipating the adoption of future and tighter regulatory requirements. In addition, an after-treatment strategy enables the possible adoption of alternative fuels, which often have their own emissions characteristics.

  16. Radiative forcing from particle emissions by future supersonic aircraft

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Pitari

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this work we focus on the direct radiative forcing (RF of black carbon (BC and sulphuric acid particles emitted by future supersonic aircraft, as well as on the ozone RF due to changes produced by emissions of both gas species (NOx, H2O and aerosol particles capable of affecting stratospheric ozone chemistry. Heterogeneous chemical reactions on the surface of sulphuric acid stratospheric particles (SSA-SAD are the main link between ozone chemistry and supersonic aircraft emissions of sulphur precursors (SO2 and particles (H2O–H2SO4. Photochemical O3 changes are compared from four independent 3-D atmosphere-chemistry models (ACMs, using as input the perturbation of SSA-SAD calculated in the University of L'Aquila model, which includes on-line a microphysics code for aerosol formation and growth. The ACMs in this study use aircraft emission scenarios for the year 2050 developed by AIRBUS as a part of the EU project SCENIC, assessing options for fleet size, engine technology (NOx emission index, Mach number, range and cruising altitude. From our baseline modeling simulation, the impact of supersonic aircraft on sulphuric acid aerosol and BC mass burdens is 53 and 1.5 μg/m2, respectively, with a direct RF of −11.4 and 4.6 mW/m2 (net RF=−6.8 mW/m2. This paper discusses the similarities and differences amongst the participating models in terms of changes to O3 precursors due to aircraft emissions (NOx, HOx,Clx,Brx and the stratospheric ozone sensitivity to them. In the baseline case, the calculated global ozone change is −0.4 ±0.3 DU, with a net radiative forcing (IR+UV of −2.5± 2 mW/m2. The fraction of this O3-RF attributable to SSA-SAD changes is, however, highly variable among the models, depending on the NOx removal

  17. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in three chemical transport models (CTMs – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – over the period 1997–2009 and compare the models' year-to-year variability against constraints from global methyl chloroform observations. Using sensitivity tests, we find that temperature, water vapor, stratospheric ozone column, biomass burning and lightning NOx are the dominant sources of interannual changes in methane lifetime in all three models. We also evaluate each model's response to forcings that have impacts on decadal time scales, such as methane feedback, and anthropogenic emissions. In general, these different CTMs show similar sensitivities to the driving variables. We construct a parametric model that reproduces most of the interannual variability of each CTM and use it to predict methane lifetime from 1980 through 2100 following a specified emissions and climate scenario (RCP 8.5. The parametric model propagates uncertainties through all steps and provides a foundation for predicting methane abundances in any climate scenario. Our sensitivity tests also enable a new estimate of the methane global warming potential (GWP, accounting for stratospheric ozone effects, including those mediated by water vapor. We estimate the 100-yr GWP to be 32, which is 25% larger than past assessments.

  18. Current and future nitrous oxide emissions from African agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hickman, J.E.; Havlikova, M.; Kroeze, C.; Palm, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Most emission estimates of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) from African agriculture at a continental scale are based on emission factors, such as those developed by the IPCC Guidelines. Here we present estimates from Africa from the EDGAR database, which is derived from the IPCC emission

  19. Future aerosol emissions: a multi-model comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Steven J.; Rao, Shilpa; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Kyle, Page

    2016-08-02

    This paper compares projections over the 21st century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the 21st century. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model. Differences in model responses can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.

  20. Neutron emissivity profile camera diagnostics considering present and future tokamaks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsberg, S. [EURATOM-VR Association, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2001-12-01

    This thesis describes the neutron profile camera situated at JET. The profile camera is one of the most important neutron emission diagnostic devices operating at JET. It gives useful information of the total neutron yield rate but also about the neutron emissivity distribution. Data analysis was performed in order to compare three different calibration methods. The data was collected from the deuterium campaign, C4, in the beginning of 2001. The thesis also includes a section about the implication of a neutron profile camera for ITER, where the issue regarding interface difficulties is in focus. The ITER JCT (Joint Central Team) proposal of a neutron camera for ITER is studied in some detail.

  1. Simulation of secondary emission calorimeter for future colliders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetkin, E. A.; Yetkin, T.; Ozok, F.; Iren, E.; Erduran, M. N.

    2018-03-01

    We present updated results from a simulation study of a conceptual sampling electromagnetic calorimeter based on secondary electron emission process. We implemented the secondary electron emission process in Geant4 as a user physics list and produced the energy spectrum and yield of secondary electrons. The energy resolution of the SEE calorimeter was σ/E = (41%) GeV1/2/√E and the response linearity to electromagnetic showers was to within 1.5%. The simulation results were also compared with a traditional scintillator calorimeter.

  2. Significance of Future Biogenic and Fire Emissions on Regional Aerosol Burden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, A.; Tai, A. P. K.; Val Martin, M.

    2017-12-01

    Land-use and land cover changes have been found to substantially affect atmospheric aerosols and climate worldwide1,2, but the complex mechanisms and pathways involved in the interactions between terrestrial processes and aerosols are not well understood. Here we use a global coupled aerosol chemistry-climate-land model (CESM with CAM5 using Modal Aerosol Module 3 and CLM4.5 in Satellite Phenology mode) to investigate how aerosols respond to future climate and land-use changes, and in turn, affects cloud cover and other hydrometeorological variables in the long term. Time-sliced simulations are conducted for a base year (2000) as a base case; then three future projected scenarios for year 2050 driven by land-use and climate projections following the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.53 are conducted. The first scenario considers future projected biogenic emissions, allowing us to investigate the effect of increased plant activity and enhanced biogenic emissions due to future land-use and climate on aerosol burden. The second scenario considers future biomass burning emissions, allowing us to investigate the effect of increased biomass burning emissions due to future land-use and climate on aerosol burden. The third scenario combines the projected changes in the two emissions. We find that both biogenic and biomass burning emissions contribute significantly to local aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The contribution from biogenic emissions to local aerosol burden is smaller in magnitude (10% to 20%), but the effects are ubiquitous in many places globally. Meanwhile, the contribution from biomass burning emissions can be much higher in magnitude (63%)4, but concentrated in heavily burned regions and occurs only during burning season. Effects of both emissions are not additive since a larger flux of emissions causes greater deposition. The resulting further impacts of land-use change on regional hydrometeorology are also explored

  3. Abatement of atmospheric emissions in North America: Progress to date and promise for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, E.C.; Erbes, R.E.; Grott, J.K.

    1990-01-01

    Much progress has been made in acidic rain abatement in North America. This progress is examined with a focus on man-made emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides that contribute to acidic deposition. A review of US historical trends of SO 2 and nitrogen oxides emissions since 1900 and projections of future emissions through the end of this century shoe emissions of SO 2 decreasing from a peak in 1970 of 29 Tg/yr to about 26 Tg/yr, but nitrogen oxides emissions continuing an upward trend to about 25 Tg/yr. In Canada, SO 2 , NO and NO 2 emissions are less than 20% of those in the US, and the trends are similar, with SO 2 showing future decreases and NO and NO 2 continuing to increase. Future industry in North America is expected to emit much lower levels of SO 2 , NO, and NO 2 . Technology is also available to limit nitrogen oxides emissions from future motor vehicles. Recent acidic deposition legislation in the US Congress to reduce electric utility and industrial emissions of SO 2 by 9 to 13 Tg/yr is reviewed. The estimates of the cost to implement the proposals range from $2 billion to $23 billion over a 5-year period. Retrofitting existing utility and industrial boilers for maximum SO 2 , NO, and NO 2 reduction carries the highest price tag. Several environmental policy options are explored for preventing emission increases and also promoting decreases in future emissions of SO 2 , NO, and NO 2 in North America. Focus on nitrogen oxides emissions may be critical because population growth could cause significant increases in NO and NO 2 from motor vehicle use

  4. Control of mercury emissions: policies, technologies, and future trends

    OpenAIRE

    Rhee, Seung-Whee

    2015-01-01

    Seung-Whee Rhee Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon, Republic of Korea Abstract: Owing to the Minamata Convention on Mercury and the Global Mercury Partnership, policies and regulations on mercury management in advanced countries were intensified by a mercury phaseout program in the mercury control strategy. In developing countries, the legislative or regulatory frameworks on mercury emissions are not established specifically, but mercury management is designed...

  5. Water management in cities of the future using emission control strategies for priority hazardous substances

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksson, Eva; Revitt, D. Mike; Ledin, Anna; Lundy, Lian; Holten Lützhøft, Hans-Christian; Wickman, Tonie; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    Cities of the future face challenges with respect to the quantity and quality of water resources, and multiple managerial options need to be considered in order to safeguard urban surface water quality. In a recently completed project on ‘Source control options for reducing emissions of Priority Pollutants’ (ScorePP), seven emission control strategies (ECSs) were developed and tested within a semi-hypothetical case city (SHCC) to evaluate their potential to reduce the emission of selected Eur...

  6. Past, Present, and Future Anthropogenic Emissions over Asia: a Regional Air Quality Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jung-Hun; Jung, Bujeon; Choi, Ki-Chul; Seo, Ji-Hyun; Kim, Tae Hyung; Park, Rokjin J.; Youn, Daeok; Jeong, Jaein; Moon, Byung-Kwon; Yeh, Sang-Wook

    2010-05-01

    Climate change will also affect future regional air quality which has potential human health, ecosystem, and economic implications. To analyze the impacts of climate change on Asian air quality, the NIER (National Institute of Environmental Research, Korea) integrated modeling framework was developed based on global-to-regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models. In this study, we developed emission inventories for the modeling framework for 1980~2100 with an emphasis on Asia emissions. Two emission processing systems which have functions of emission projection, spatial/temporal allocation, and chemical speciation have been also developed in support of atmospheric chemistry models including GEOS-Chem and Models-3/CMAQ. Asia-based emission estimates, projection factors, temporal allocation parameters were combined to improve regional modeling capability of past, present and future air quality over Asia. The global CO emissions show a 23% decrease from the years 1980 to 2000. For the future CO (from year 2000 to 2100), the A2 scenario shows a 95% increase due to the B40 (Residential-Biofuel) sector of Western Africa, Eastern Africa and East Asia and the F51 (Transport Road-Fossil fuel) sector of Middle East, USA and South Asia. The B1 scenario, however, shows a 79% decrease of emissions due to B40 and F51 sectors of East Asia, South Asia and USA for the same period. In many cases, Asian emissions play important roles for global emission increase or decrease depending on the IPCC scenarios considered. The regional ozone forming potential will be changed due to different VOC/NOx emission ratio changes in the future. More similarities and differences of Asian emission characteristics, in comparison with its global counterpart, are investigated.

  7. Forecasting future industrial SO/sub 2/ and NO/sub x/ emissions. Revised

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graves, K.; Pechan, E.; Briggs, B.; Turner, D.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents estimates of future emissions from various economic source sectors with a focus on those emissions associated with industrial activities. These estimates were obtained from the Environmental Trends Analysis Model (ETAM). These projections are based on energy and economic projections made by DOE and on data inputs from other sources and models. In this paper we present an overview of sulfur dioxide (SO/sub 2/) and nitrogen oxide (NO/sub x/) emission trends to the year 2010 from the industrial sector within the context of total anthropogenic emissions. 12 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation of Canadian oil sands to future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarnoczi, Tyler

    2013-01-01

    Oil sands transportation diversification is important for preventing discounted crude pricing. Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil transportation are linearly-scale and fail to account for project specific details. This research sets out to develop a detailed LCA model to compare the energy inputs and GHG emissions of pipeline and rail transportation for oil sands products. The model is applied to several proposed oils sands transportation routes that may serve as future markets. Comparison between transportation projects suggest that energy inputs and GHG emissions show a high degree of variation. For both rail and pipeline transportation, the distance over which the product is transported has a large impact on total emissions. The regional electricity grid and pump efficiency have the largest impact on pipeline emissions, while train engine efficiency and bitumen blending ratios have the largest impact on rail transportation emissions. LCA-based GHG regulations should refine models to account for the range of product pathways and focus efforts on cost-effective emission reductions. As the climate-change impacts of new oil sands transportation projects are considered, GHG emission boundaries should be defined according to operation control. -- Highlights: •A life cycle model is developed to compare transportation of oil sands products. •The model is applied to several potential future oil sands markets. •Energy inputs and GHG emissions are compared. •Model inputs are explored using sensitivity analysis. •Policy recommendations are provided

  9. The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

  10. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  11. The Natural Gas Vehicle Challenge 1992: Exhaust emissions testing and results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimkus, W. A.; Larsen, R. P.; Zammit, M. G.; Davies, J. G.; Salmon, G. S.; Bruetsch, R. I.

    The Natural Gas Vehicle (NGV) Challenge '92, was organized by Argonne National Laboratory. The main sponsors were the U.S. Department of Energy the Energy, Mines, and Resources -- Canada, and the Society of Automotive Engineers. It resulted in 20 varied approaches to the conversion of a gasoline-fueled, spark-ignited, internal combustion engine to dedicated natural gas use. Starting with a GMC Sierra 2500 pickup truck donated by General Motors, teams of college and university student engineers worked to optimize Chevrolet V-8 engines operating on natural gas for improved emissions, fuel economy, performance, and advanced design features. This paper focuses on the results of the emission event, and compares engine mechanical configurations, engine management systems, catalyst configurations and locations, and approaches to fuel control and the relationship of these parameters to engine-out and tailpipe emissions of regulated exhaust constituents. Nine of the student modified trucks passed the current levels of exhaust emission standards, and some exceeded the strictest future emissions standards envisioned by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Factors contributing to good emissions control using natural gas are summarized, and observations concerning necessary components of a successful emissions control strategy are presented.

  12. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

    2015-05-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and

  13. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth S; Kim, Patrick S; Koplitz, Shannon N; Jacob, Daniel J; Gaveau, David L A; Mickley, Loretta J; Margono, Belinda A; Myers, Samuel S

    2015-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010–2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations

  14. [Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian-gong; Zhu, Qiu-an; Shen, Yan; Yang, Yan-zheng; Luo, Yun-peng; Peng, Chang-hui

    2015-11-01

    Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

  15. ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

  16. Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

    2013-10-01

    Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

  17. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  18. The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B; Allwood, Julian M

    2017-06-13

    Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel.This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'. © 2017 The Authors.

  19. Wind farms on undegraded peatlands are unlikely to reduce future carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Jo; Nayak, Dali Rani; Smith, Pete

    2014-01-01

    Onshore wind energy is a key component of the renewable energies used by governments to reduce carbon emissions from electricity production, but will carbon emissions be reduced when wind farms are located on carbon-rich peatands? Wind farms are often located in uplands because most are of low agricultural value, are distant from residential areas, and are windy. Many UK uplands are peatlands, with layers of accumulated peat that represent a large stock of soil carbon. When peatlands are drained for construction there is a higher risk of net carbon loss than for mineral soils. Previous work suggests that wind farms sited on peatlands can reduce net carbon emissions if strictly managed for maximum retention of carbon. Here we show that, whereas in 2010, most sites had potential to provide net carbon savings, by 2040 most sites will not reduce carbon emissions even with careful management. This is due to projected changes in the proportion of fossil fuels used to generate electricity. The results suggest future policy should avoid constructing wind farms on undegraded peatlands unless drainage of peat is minimal and the volume excavated in foundations can be significantly reduced compared to energy output. - Highlights: • Future wind farms located on undegraded peats will not reduce carbon emissions. • This is due to projected changes in fossil fuels used to generate electricity. • Future policy should avoid constructing wind farms on undegraded peats

  20. The impact of reducing car weight on global emissions: the future fleet in Great Britain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrenho, André Cabrera; Norman, Jonathan B.; Allwood, Julian M.

    2017-05-01

    Current European policies define targets for future direct emissions of new car sales that foster a fast transition to electric drivetrain technologies. However, these targets do not consider the emissions produced in electricity generation and material production, and therefore fail to incentivise car manufacturers to consider the benefits of vehicle weight reduction. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of limiting the average weight and altering the material composition of new cars in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions produced during the use phase, electricity generation and material production. We anticipate the emissions savings for the future car fleet in Great Britain until 2050 for various alternative futures, using a dynamic material flow analysis of ferrous metals and aluminium, and considering an evolving demand for car use. The results suggest that fostering vehicle weight reduction could produce greater cumulative emissions savings by 2050 than those obtained by incentivising a fast transition to electric drivetrains, unless there is an extreme decarbonization of the electricity grid. Savings promoted by weight reduction are immediate and do not depend on the pace of decarbonization of the electricity grid. Weight reduction may produce the greatest savings when mild steel in the car body is replaced with high-strength steel. This article is part of the themed issue 'Material demand reduction'.

  1. Future trends in worldwide river nitrogen transport and related nitrous oxide emissions : a scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Seitzinger, S.P.; Domingues, R.

    2001-01-01

    We analyze possible future trends in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by world rivers and associated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O). Our scenarios either assume that current trends continue or that nitrogen (N) inputs to aquatic systems are reduced as a result of changes in agriculture

  2. Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Christine; Fofrich, Robert; Davis, Steven J.

    2017-04-01

    With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid-2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under-development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non-fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal-fired plants could therefore either "strand" fossil energy assets (i.e., force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by "locking-out" new, low-carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial era.

  3. Water management in cities of the future using emission control strategies for priority hazardous substances

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Eva; Revitt, D. M.; Ledin, A.

    2011-01-01

    Cities of the future face challenges with respect to the quantity and quality of water resources, and multiple managerial options need to be considered in order to safeguard urban surface water quality. In a recently completed project on “Source Control Options for Reducing Emissions of Priority ...

  4. Future changes in biogenic isoprene emissions: how might they affect regional and global atmospheric chemistry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christine Wiedinmyer; Xuexi Tie; Alex Guenther; Ron Neilson; Claire. Granier

    2006-01-01

    Isoprene is emitted from vegetation to the atmosphere in significant quantities, and it plays an important role in the reactions that control tropospheric oxidant concentrations. As future climatic and land-cover changes occur, the spatial and temporal variations, as well as the magnitude of these biogenic isoprene emissions, are expected to change. This paper presents...

  5. Cadmium flows and emissions from CdTe PV: future expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadmium telluride photovoltaic (CdTe PV) technology is growing rapidly, and already represents the largest contributor to non-silicon based photovoltaics worldwide. We assessed the extent to which CdTe PV will play a notable role in the Cd use and emission flows in the future, and whether it will be environmentally beneficial or detrimental. Our results show that while CdTe PV may account for a large percentage of future global Cd demand, its role in terms of Cd sequestration may be beneficial. We calculated that its potential contribution to yearly global Cd emissions to air and water may well be orders-of-magnitude lower than the respective current Cd emissions rates in Europe.

  6. Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth; Pennington, Derric; Nelson, Erik; Ordway, Elsa M; Lewis, Jeremy; Koplitz, Shannon N; Mickley, Loretta J

    2015-01-01

    Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1-km2 land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37-48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel-rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Those Pesky Humans: Emissions and the Future of AnthroGeoscience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, T. C.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the "Geophysical" word in our society's name, a large fraction of our work is devoted to characterizing how humans influence the Earth system: the discipline of anthrogeoscience.When I joined AGU in 1997, emissions for atmospheric models were treated as "just a flux." Since then, emission inventories have become recognized as core intermediaries to describe how humans, and their use of Earth's resources, connect with Earth's atmosphere. What we know and don't know about emissions often reflects what we know and don't know about people. Emissions and atmospheric pollution become routinely observable and controllable when a society reaches a certain level of technical expertise. The least well-understood emissions of air pollutants occur before this point in societal development, or remain after controls are implemented. Yet the humans who live with these emissions may have enormous health impacts and other elevated risks. The future emission trajectories that we can choose are constrained by human capacity, capital stock, physical infrastructure, and ultimately, political will. Many have hoped to follow a low-impact trajectory, but have yet to understand and commit to the physical and societal changes required. Understanding and choosing the future of the atmosphere will require close-coupled projections of the three-way connection between humans, the built environment, and the Earth system. Responsible stewardship will require us to integrate disciplines ranging from engineering and planning to human behavior and governance. The American Geophysical Union is key to the future of anthrogeoscience. Looking beyond its halls is imperative, as well.

  8. Managing traffic induced emissions in the future Beirut Central Business District

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Fadel, Mutasem; Sbayti, Hayssam; Kayssi, Isam; Baaj, Hadi

    2003-01-01

    The increased urbanization of the Greater Beirut Area (GBA) over the past years has led severe traffic congestion due to a deficient transportation system and significant reliance on private vehicles as the primary passenger transport mode. As a result, air quality is continuously deteriorating particularly in densely populated areas. Beirut Central District (BCD), the center of economic growth in the GBA, is expected to witness adverse air quality impacts in the medium and long-term future. Hence, there is a growing need to couple the efficiency of transport activities with acceptable air quality since both factors affect the welfare of residents. The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of selected traffic management alternatives and emission reduction strategies on air quality in the BCD area. Four traffic alternatives and three emission reduction strategies were analyzed for their effect on emission factors, total emissions and exposure levels

  9. Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2018-02-01

    Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

  10. Forecasting future industrial SO/sub 2/ and NO/sub x/ emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graves, K.; Pechan, E.; Turner, D.; Briggs, B.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents estimates of future emissions from various economic source sectors with a focus on those emissions associated with industrial activities. These estimates were obtained from the environmental trends analysis model (ETAM), a simplified projection model developed by E.H. Pechan and Associates, Inc., under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). These projections are based on energy and economic projections made by DOE and on data inputs from other sources and models. In this paper the authors present an overview of sulfur dioxide (SO/sub 2/) and nitrogen oxide (NO/sub x/) emission trends to the year 2010 from the industrial sector within the context of total anthropogenic emissions.

  11. Estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions of the world's cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. - Highlights: • A tool for estimation of energy related emissions for urban areas is developed. • Heating degree days and urbanized area per capita are driving variables for urban energy consumption. • Global transition to EVs can only mitigate transportation emissions if GHG intensity of electricity grid is reduced. • Density decline of urban areas can lead to exponential increase of energy related emissions. • Climate change scenarios can slightly reduce the growth of energy related emissions increase by 2050. - A tool for estimation of global impact of urban systems on energy related emissions was developed that can simulate the impact of future scenarios (climate change, urban design etc)

  12. Current and future CO2 emissions from drained peatlands in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wösten

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Forested tropical peatlands in Southeast Asia store at least 42 000 Million metric tonnes (Mt of soil carbon. Human activity and climate change threatens the stability of this large pool, which has been decreasing rapidly over the last few decades owing to deforestation, drainage and fire. In this paper we estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions resulting from drainage of lowland tropical peatland for agricultural and forestry development which dominates the perturbation of the carbon balance in the region. Present and future emissions from drained peatlands are quantified using data on peatland extent and peat thickness, present and projected land use, water management practices and decomposition rates. Of the 27.1 Million hectares (Mha of peatland in Southeast Asia, 12.9 Mha had been deforested and mostly drained by 2006. This latter area is increasing rapidly because of increasing land development pressures. Carbon dioxide (CO2 emission caused by decomposition of drained peatlands was between 355 Mt y−1 and 855 Mt y−1 in 2006 of which 82% came from Indonesia, largely Sumatra and Kalimantan. At a global scale, CO2 emission from peatland drainage in Southeast Asia is contributing the equivalent of 1.3% to 3.1% of current global CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel. If current peatland development and management practices continue, these emissions are predicted to continue for decades. This warrants inclusion of tropical peatland CO2 emissions in global greenhouse gas emission calculations and climate mitigation policies. Uncertainties in emission calculations are discussed and research needs for improved estimates are identified.

  13. Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofrich, R.; Shearer, C.; Davis, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions due to its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves. In this study, we assess existing and proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future energy production and emissions in the country. In 2016, India had 369 coal-fired power plants under development totaling 243 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity. These coal-fired power plants would increase India's coal-fired generating capacity by 123% and would exceed India's projected electricity demand. Therefore, India's current proposals for new coal-fired power plants would be forced to retire early or operate at very low capacity factors and/or would prevent India from meeting its goal of producing at least 40% of its power from renewable sources by 2030. In addition, future emissions from proposed coal-fired power plants would exceed India's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% - 35% by 2030.

  14. The future of emissions trading in light of the acid rain experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLean, B.J.; Rico, R.

    1995-01-01

    The idea of emissions trading was developed more than two decades ago by environmental economists eager to provide new ideas for how to improve the efficiency of environmental protection. However, early emissions trading efforts were built on the historical open-quotes command and controlclose quotes infrastructure which has dominated U.S. environmental protection until today. The open-quotes command and controlclose quotes model initially had advantages that were of a very pragmatic character: it assured large pollution reductions in a time when large, cheap reductions were available and necessary; and it did not require a sophisticated government infrastructure. Within the last five years, large-scale emission trading programs have been successfully designed and started that are fundamentally different from the earlier efforts, creating a new paradigm for environmental control just when our understanding of environmental problems is changing as well. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the largest national-scale program--the Acid Rain Program--and from that experience, forecast when emission trading programs may be headed based on our understanding of the factors currently influencing environmental management. The first section of this paper will briefly review the history of emissions trading programs, followed by a summary of the features of the Acid Rain Program, highlighting those features that distinguish it from previous efforts. The last section addresses the opportunities for emissions trading (and its probable future directions)

  15. The strictest energy requirements in the world

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Erik Hagelskjær; Jensen, Jens Stissing

    2013-01-01

    50 years of progressively strengthened energy requirements in the Danish building code appear to be a success, as the energy consumption has remained constant despite an increase in the total area in requirement of heating. This article however argues that the building code mechanism is heavily i...

  16. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  17. Assessment for Fuel Consumption and Exhaust Emissions of China's Vehicles: Future Trends and Policy Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Yingying; Zhao, Peng; Zhang, Hongwei; Wang, Yuan; Mao, Guozhu

    2012-01-01

    In the recent years, China’s auto industry develops rapidly, thus bringing a series of burdens to society and environment. This paper uses Logistic model to simulate the future trend of China’s vehicle population and finds that China’s auto industry would come into high speed development time during 2020–2050. Moreover, this paper predicts vehicles’ fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (CO, HC, NOx, and PM) and quantificationally evaluates related industry policies. It can be concluded th...

  18. Dealing with fixed emissions ceilings in an uncertain future: Offsetting under environmental integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Fabian; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

    2013-11-15

    National emission ceilings are a policy instrument to reduce adverse environmental impacts of transboundary air pollution. Such ceilings for SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC are established, for example, in the Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (UNECE, 1999) and the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive of the European Union (EC, 2001a, b). They prescribe for each pollutant a fixed upper limit on emissions for a specific year. Flexibility in achieving them could lower implementation costs if reality develops differently from what was foreseen during negotiations. In this paper, we explore the conditions under which emission reductions for one pollutant (e.g., SO2) could be offset by additional cuts of another pollutant (e.g., NOx) within the same country, without compromising the environmental improvements that are envisaged from the original set of emission ceilings. We employ the impact module of the GAINS (Greenhouse gas - Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) model to examine possible exchange rates across pollutants for the 2012 negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol in Europe. Our analysis shows that exchange rates that satisfy the environmental integrity condition can be established, but that their values vary substantially across countries. Extending the environmental integrity condition to downwind countries will require significantly higher exchange rates. We discuss aspects that decision makers would need to consider before adopting an offsetting schema for future international environmental agreements. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Field Emission in CEBAF's SRF Cavities and Implications for Future Accelerators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jay Benesch

    2006-02-15

    Field emission is one of the key issues in superconducting RF for particle accelerators. When present, it limits operating gradient directly or via induced heat load at 2K. In order to minimize particulate contamination of and thus field emission in the CEBAF SRF cavities during assembly, a cold ceramic RF window was placed very close to the accelerating cavity proper. As an unintended consequence of this, the window is charged by field-emitted electrons, making it possible to monitor and model field emission in the CEBAF cavities since in-tunnel operation began. From January 30, 1995, through February 10, 2003, there were 64 instances of spontaneous onset or change in cavity field emission with a drop in usable gradient averaging 1.4 ({sigma} 0.8) MV/m at each event. Fractional loss averaged 0.18 ({sigma} 0.12) of pre-event gradient. This event count corresponds to 2.4 events per century per cavity, or 8 per year in CEBAF. It is hypothesized that changes in field emission are due to adsorbed gas accumulation. The possible implications of this and other observations for the International Linear Collider (ILC) and other future accelerators will be discussed.

  20. Future forecast for life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of LNG and city gas 13A

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamura, Tomohito; Furukawa, Michinobu; Ishitani, Hisashi

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the most up-to-date data available on total greenhouse-gas emissions of a LNG fuel supply chain and life-cycle of city gas 13A based on surveys of the LNG projects delivering to Japan, which should provide useful basic-data for conducting life-cycle analyses of other product systems as well as future alternative energy systems, because of highly reliable data qualified in terms of its source and representativeness. In addition, the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of LNG and city-gas 13A in 2010 were also predicted, taking into account not only the improvement of technologies, but also the change of composition of LNG projects. As a result of this analysis, the total amount of greenhouse-gas emissions of the whole city-gas 13A chain at present was calculated to be 61.91 g-CO 2 /MJ, and the life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of LNG and city-gas 13A in 2010 could be expected to decrease by about 1.1% of the current emissions

  1. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  2. Effect of Shipping Emissions on Present and Future Atmospheric Composition Over the Barents Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakis, N.; Raut, J. C.; Law, K.; Marelle, L.; Thomas, J. L.; Onishi, T.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic is undergoing unprecedented changes as a result of rapid warming and socio-economic drivers. Even though the region is a receptor for anthropogenic pollution from the highly populated mid-latitudes, there are also local sources of pollution, such as shipping, that are already perturbing atmospheric composition. The Barents Sea, located off the northern coasts of Norway and Russia, has year-round shipping traffic and is likely to grow in a warming Arctic because of the economic benefits related to the opening up of the North-East passage placing it in a strategic position for the transport of goods between Europe and Asia. An increase in the marine traffic has already been observed over the past years in this region, resulting in increased emissions of pollutants. In this work, we investigate the impact of the shipping emissions in the Barents Sea on atmospheric composition for the summer period (July/August) with high traffic using the regional chemistry-aerosol transport model WRF-Chem run at high resolution over the region. We quantify the effects of shipping pollution on aerosol concentrations, such as black carbon, sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) as well as deposition of potentially important nutrients (NO3-, SO42-). The model is run using an analytical chemical mechanism for gas phase and aerosols (SAPRC99 coupled with VBS and MOSAIC) for present-day (2012) and future (2050) conditions with ECLIPSE anthropogenic emissions and Winther et al. (2014) shipping emissions. Present-day simulations are evaluated against available data. We examine different future growth scenarios taking into account current and proposed ship operation regulations, such as CLE (current legislation) and HGS (high growth scenario), to investigate possible future changes in surface concentrations, tropospheric burdens and deposition fluxes. Potential chemistry-climate feedbacks are also examined such as those related to aerosol

  3. Current and future trends in global landfill gas generation and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meadows, M.; Franklin, C.; Campbell, D.

    1996-01-01

    This paper assesses the magnitude and distribution of current and future methane generation and emissions from landfill on a world-wide basis. It also estimates the current and future global potential for energy recovery from landfill methane. The mass of methane emitted from land disposal of wastes in any country depends on the waste management strategy of that country. In turn, the waste management strategy of a country depends on its population size, relative proportion living in rural or urban regions and the economic development of the country. We estimate by 2010 there will be a large increase in global methane emissions from solid wastes disposed on land. This increase will be largely from developing regions of the world. The main factor driving this increase is a population shift from rural to urban areas, particularly in regions of highest population, i.e. China and India. This will lead to a greater concentration of waste generation, in turn leading to increased disposal of wastes in deeper sites. In addition increased industrialisation and improved standard of living in regions of high population, will increase the mass of waste disposed of per person and the degradable carbon content of the waste, i.e. the waste will become more like waste from developed countries. In contrast, methane emissions from waste disposed on land in developed countries is likely to decrease by 2010, mainly as result of increased collection and combustion of landfill methane. (Author)

  4. Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

  5. Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

  6. Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, V. K.; Scinocca, J. F.; Boer, G. J.; Christian, J. R.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Kharin, V. V.; Lee, W. G.; Merryfield, W. J.

    2011-03-01

    The response of the second-generation Canadian earth system model (CanESM2) to historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) natural and anthropogenic forcing is assessed using the newly-developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. Allowable emissions required to achieve the future atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, are reported for the RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. For the historical 1850-2005 period, cumulative land plus ocean carbon uptake and, consequently, cumulative diagnosed emissions compare well with observation-based estimates. The simulated historical carbon uptake is somewhat weaker for the ocean and stronger for the land relative to their observation-based estimates. The simulated historical warming of 0.9°C compares well with the observation-based estimate of 0.76 ± 0.19°C. The RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively yield warmings of 1.4, 2.3, and 4.9°C and cumulative diagnosed fossil fuel emissions of 182, 643 and 1617 Pg C over the 2006-2100 period. The simulated warming of 2.3°C over the 1850-2100 period in the RCP 2.6 scenario, with the lowest concentration of GHGs, is slightly larger than the 2°C warming target set to avoid dangerous climate change by the 2009 UN Copenhagen Accord. The results of this study suggest that limiting warming to roughly 2°C by the end of this century is unlikely since it requires an immediate ramp down of emissions followed by ongoing carbon sequestration in the second half of this century.

  7. COMPARISON OF THREE METHODS TO PROJECT FUTURE BASELINE CARBON EMISSIONS IN TEMPERATE RAINFOREST, CURINANCO, CHILE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patrick Gonzalez; Antonio Lara; Jorge Gayoso; Eduardo Neira; Patricio Romero; Leonardo Sotomayor

    2005-07-14

    Deforestation of temperate rainforests in Chile has decreased the provision of ecosystem services, including watershed protection, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Forest conservation can restore those ecosystem services. Greenhouse gas policies that offer financing for the carbon emissions avoided by preventing deforestation require a projection of future baseline carbon emissions for an area if no forest conservation occurs. For a proposed 570 km{sup 2} conservation area in temperate rainforest around the rural community of Curinanco, Chile, we compared three methods to project future baseline carbon emissions: extrapolation from Landsat observations, Geomod, and Forest Restoration Carbon Analysis (FRCA). Analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data show 1986-1999 net deforestation of 1900 ha in the analysis area, proceeding at a rate of 0.0003 y{sup -1}. The gross rate of loss of closed natural forest was 0.042 y{sup -1}. In the period 1986-1999, closed natural forest decreased from 20,000 ha to 11,000 ha, with timber companies clearing natural forest to establish plantations of non-native species. Analyses of previous field measurements of species-specific forest biomass, tree allometry, and the carbon content of vegetation show that the dominant native forest type, broadleaf evergreen (bosque siempreverde), contains 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon, compared to the carbon density of non-native Pinus radiata plantations of 240 {+-} 60 t ha{sup -1}. The 1986-1999 conversion of closed broadleaf evergreen forest to open broadleaf evergreen forest, Pinus radiata plantations, shrublands, grasslands, urban areas, and bare ground decreased the carbon density from 370 {+-} 170 t ha{sup -1} carbon to an average of 100 t ha{sup -1} (maximum 160 t ha{sup -1}, minimum 50 t ha{sup -1}). Consequently, the conversion released 1.1 million t carbon. These analyses of forest inventory and Landsat remote sensing data provided the data to

  8. Future emissions and atmospheric fate of HFC-1234yf from mobile air conditioners in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Stephan; Shallcross, Dudley E; Reimann, Stefan; Xiao, Ping; Brunner, Dominik; O'Doherty, Simon; Buchmann, Brigitte

    2012-02-07

    HFC-1234yf (2,3,3,3-tetrafluoropropene) is under discussion for replacing HFC-134a (1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane) as a cooling agent in mobile air conditioners (MACs) in the European vehicle fleet. Some HFC-1234yf will be released into the atmosphere, where it is almost completely transformed to the persistent trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). Future emissions of HFC-1234yf after a complete conversion of the European vehicle fleet were assessed. Taking current day leakage rates and predicted vehicle numbers for the year 2020 into account, European total HFC-1234yf emissions from MACs were predicted to range between 11.0 and 19.2 Gg yr(-1). Resulting TFA deposition rates and rainwater concentrations over Europe were assessed with two Lagrangian chemistry transport models. Mean European summer-time TFA mixing ratios of about 0.15 ppt (high emission scenario) will surpass previously measured levels in background air in Germany and Switzerland by more than a factor of 10. Mean deposition rates (wet + dry) of TFA were estimated to be 0.65-0.76 kg km(-2) yr(-1), with a maxium of ∼2.0 kg km(-2) yr(-1) occurring in Northern Italy. About 30-40% of the European HFC-1234yf emissions were deposited as TFA within Europe, while the remaining fraction was exported toward the Atlantic Ocean, Central Asia, Northern, and Tropical Africa. Largest annual mean TFA concentrations in rainwater were simulated over the Mediterranean and Northern Africa, reaching up to 2500 ng L(-1), while maxima over the continent of about 2000 ng L(-1) occurred in the Czech Republic and Southern Germany. These highest annual mean concentrations are at least 60 times lower than previously determined to be a safe level for the most sensitive aquatic life-forms. Rainwater concentrations during individual rain events would still be 1 order of magnitude lower than the no effect level. To verify these results future occasional sampling of TFA in the atmospheric environment should be considered. If future HFC-1234yf

  9. The Kyoto Protocol Emissions Trading Mechanisms - A Model for financing future nuclear development in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purica, Ionut; John Saroudis

    2001-01-01

    At the beginning of 2001 Romania ratified the Kyoto Protocol (Law 3/2001) thus becoming the first European country to do so. The mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol are now opening new ways to sponsor the financing of nuclear projects. In May 2001 Societatea Nationala Nuclearoelectrica S.S. (SNN) and Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and ANSALDO of Italy signed a contract to complete the second CANDU unit at Cernavoda thus giving a new momentum to the nuclear program in Romania. The Government of Romania has indicated its desire to proceed with the completion of the other units on the Cernavoda site and is open to explore every potential financing mechanism to make this a reality. Although the Kyoto Protocol was not ratified by those countries that have the greatest need to reduce emissions, a market for emissions trading has developed, Canada being one of the important players in this market. Since the emission reduction per dollar invested in the Romanian nuclear program would bring much more reduction than the marginal reduction per dollar invested in environmental protection programs in Canada, where the saturation effect is already taking place, we consider that the application of the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms represents a realistic source for a sustainable cooperation of the two countries. This trend is in line with the latest activities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This paper analyzes the impact that the use of emissions credits would have on a typical financing scheme for a future CANDU project in Romania given the present situation and also proposes a model for the structure of the emissions trade that would generate a source of funding for the project. The conclusion is that there is real potential in using Kyoto Protocol mechanisms for financing nuclear development with benefits for both Romania and Canada. (authors)

  10. Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K.; Matthews, D.

    2010-12-01

    If current greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations remain constant, the world would be committed to several centuries of increasing global mean temperatures and sea level rise. By contrast, near elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions would be required to produce diminishing GHG concentrations consistent with stabilization of mean temperatures. Yet long-lived energy and transportation infrastructure now operating can be expected to contribute substantial CO2 emissions over the next 50 years. Barring widespread retrofitting of existing power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies or the early decommissioning of serviceable infrastructure, these “committed emissions” represent infrastructural inertia which may be the primary contributor to total future warming commitment. With respect to GHG emissions, infrastructural inertia may be thought of as having two important and overlapping components: (i) infrastructure that directly releases GHGs to the atmosphere, and (ii) infrastructure that contributes to the continued production of devices that emit GHGs to the atmosphere. For example, the interstate highway and refueling infrastructure in the United States facilitates continued production of gasoline-powered automobiles. Here, we focus only on the warming commitment from infrastructure that directly releases CO2 to the atmosphere. Essentially, we answer the question: What if no additional CO2-emitting devices (e.g., power plants, motor vehicles) were built, but all the existing CO2-emitting devices were allowed to live out their normal lifetimes? What CO2 levels and global mean temperatures would we attain? Of course, the actual lifetime of devices may be strongly influenced by economic and policy constraints. For instance, a ban on new CO2-emitting devices would create tremendous incentive to prolong the lifetime of existing devices. Thus, our scenarios are not realistic, but offer a means of gauging the threat of climate change from existing

  11. After the Hague, Bonn and Marrakech: uncertainties on the future international market of emission permits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitous, A.; Criqui, P.; Blanchard, O.

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present an economic assessment, step by step, of the successive developments of the negotiation on weather changes since the Kyoto protocol in 1997 until the agreement achieved in Marrakech during the seventh Conference of the Parties (COP 7) in November 2001. The analysis covers the international market of emission rights, a key mechanism of the Protocol, the purpose of which is to facilitate the Parties' compliance with their undertakings, by introducing flexibility to improve the economic efficiency of emission reduction. However, it now appears that despite the Marrakech agreement in November 2001, the system is weakened by the withdrawal of the USA decided by President G.W. Bush in March 2001, following COP 6 in The Hague, and by a potential excess of permits due to the economic recession of transition countries since the early nineties (hot air). As things stands, the establishment of the market between the countries taking part in the process will undoubtedly require some management of this hot air between transition countries (Eastern Europe and Ex USSR) and the other Parties of appendix B still involved in the process. The uncertainties weighing on the future market of emission permits strengthen the strategic significance of the implementation of effective reduction policies within those regions and particularly within Europe. (authors)

  12. Water management in cities of the future using emission control strategies for priority hazardous substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, E; Revitt, D M; Ledin, A; Lundy, L; Holten Lützhøft, H C; Wickman, T; Mikkelsen, P S

    2011-01-01

    Cities of the future face challenges with respect to the quantity and quality of water resources, and multiple managerial options need to be considered in order to safeguard urban surface water quality. In a recently completed project on 'Source control options for reducing emissions of Priority Pollutants' (ScorePP), seven emission control strategies (ECSs) were developed and tested within a semi-hypothetical case city (SHCC) to evaluate their potential to reduce the emission of selected European priority hazardous substances (PHSs) to surface waters. The ECSs included (1) business-as-usual, (2) full implementation of relevant European (EU) directives, (3) ECS2 in combination with voluntary options for household, municipalities and industry, (4) ECS2 combined with industrial treatment and best available technologies (BAT), (5) ECS2 in combination with stormwater and combined sewer overflow treatment, (6) ECS2 in combination with advanced wastewater treatment, and (7) combinations of ECS3-6. The SHCC approach was chosen to facilitate transparency, to allow compensating for data gaps and to decrease the level of uncertainty in the results. The selected PHSs: cadmium (Cd), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), nonylphenol (NP) and pentabromodiphenyl ether (PBDE) differ in their uses and environmental fate and therefore accumulate in surface waters to differing extents in response to the application of alternative ECS. To achieve the required reduction in PHS levels in urban waters the full implementation of existing EU regulation is prioritised and feasible combinations of managerial and technological options (source control and treatment) can be highly relevant for mitigating releases.

  13. Modeling Future Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impacts of Electricity Supplies in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa M. Bilec

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Brazil’s status as a rapidly developing country is visible in its need for more energy, including electricity. While the current electricity generation mix is primarily hydropower based, high-quality dam sites are diminishing and diversification to other sources is likely. We combined life-cycle data for electricity production with scenarios developed using the IAEA’s MESSAGE model to examine environmental impacts of future electricity generation under a baseline case and four side cases, using a Monte-Carlo approach to incorporate uncertainty in power plant performance and LCA impacts. Our results show that, under the cost-optimal base case scenario, Brazil’s GHGs from electricity (excluding hydroelectric reservoir emissions rise 370% by 2040 relative to 2010, with the carbon intensity per MWh rising 100%. This rise would make Brazil’s carbon emissions targets difficult to meet without demand-side programs. Our results show a future electricity mix dominated by environmental tradeoffs in the use of large-scale renewables, questioning the use tropical hydropower and highlighting the need for additional work to assess and include ecosystem and social impacts, where information is currently sparse.

  14. Trading-off emission reduction, carbon capture and geoengineering to reach the Paris agreement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasser, T.; Boucher, O.; Lecocq, F.; Obersteiner, M.

    2017-12-01

    We explore virtually all possible future pathways that respect the Paris agreement, with an innovative modeling framework. We show that immediate and extreme mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 species alike, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and/or solar radiation management (SRM) technologies are required. We analyze the tradeoffs between these solutions. We generate thousands of temperature change pathways that extend historical records, stay below 2°C, and aim at 1.5°C in the long run. Non-CO2 forcings are generated likewise. With a simple model of the Earth system, we then back-calculate anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with these pathways. Other key global variables such as ocean acidity, sea level and permafrost thaw are also simulated. From this large ensemble of fully consistent scenarios, we analyze subsets that meet certain criteria: physical targets, emission levels, technology use, or any combination thereof. We show that staying below 1.5°C is feasible if CO2 emissions peak before 2025 and non-CO2 forcings are also reduced to zero. In case of a positive long-term non-CO2 forcing (a mitigation floor), CDR is necessary. Alternatively, emissions can peak later and/or higher if SRM is allowed. For pathways overshooting 1.5°C, results depend on the overshoot's size and length. Because of thawing permafrost, virtually all overshoot pathways require CDR, unless non-CO2 species (possibly SRM) are cooling the system at the time of peak temperature. When considering additional physical targets, which can be relevant for preserving ecosystems, the space of allowable pathways is systematically reduced. Especially: limiting ocean acidification rules out SRM. The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) indicate that reaching even the strictest interpretation of the agreement is feasible. However, if SRM is ruled out and only a reasonable amount of CDR is allowed, NDCs are compatible with very few of our pathways (≈5%). If a mitigation floor is added on top of

  15. From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

  16. Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2017-12-01

    China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb

  17. Historic and future trends of vehicle emissions in Beijing, 1998-2020: A policy assessment for the most stringent vehicle emission control program in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Wu, Xiaomeng; Li, Mengliang; Ge, Yunshan; Liang, Bin; Xu, Yueyun; Zhou, Yu; Liu, Huan; Fu, Lixin; Hao, Jiming

    2014-06-01

    As a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, Beijing released the Clean Air Action Plan 2013-2017 document in August 2013 to improve its urban air quality. It has put forward this plan containing the most stringent emission control policies and strategies to be adopted for on-road vehicles of Beijing. This paper estimates the historic and future trends and uncertainties in vehicle emissions of Beijing from 1998 to 2020 by applying a new emission factor model for the Beijing vehicle fleet (EMBEV). Our updated results show that total emissions of CO, THC, NOx and PM2.5 from the Beijing vehicle fleet are 507 (395-819) kt, 59.1 (41.2-90.5) kt, 74.7 (54.9-103.9) kt and 2.69 (1.91-4.17) kt, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. This represents significant reductions of 58%, 59%, 31% and 62%, respectively, relative to the total vehicle emissions in 1998. The past trends clearly posed a challenge to NOx emission mitigation for the Beijing vehicle fleet, especially in light of those increasing NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) which have partly offset the reduction benefit from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs). Because of recently announced vehicle emission controls to be adopted in Beijing, including tighter emissions standards, limitations on vehicle growth by more stringent license control, promotion of alternative fuel technologies (e.g., natural gas) and the scrappage of older vehicles, estimated vehicle emissions in Beijing will continue to be mitigated by 74% of CO, 68% of THC, 56% of NOx and 72% of PM2.5 in 2020 compared to 2010 levels. Considering that many of the megacities in China are facing tremendous pressures to mitigate emissions from on-road vehicles, our assessment will provide a timely case study of significance for policy-makers in China.

  18. Past and future cadmium emissions from municipal solid-waste incinerators in Japan for the assessment of cadmium control policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ono, Kyoko, E-mail: kyoko.ono@aist.go.jp

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Cd emissions from municipal solid waste incinerators were estimated for 1970–2030. • Emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1 t) at levels ten times that in 2010 (1.2 t). • In the 1970s, the main source was pigments, but after 2000, it was Ni-Cd batteries. • The effects of two Cd control policies were compared. • Banning Cd use reduced emissions more than intensive collection of batteries. -- Abstract: Cadmium (Cd) is a harmful pollutant emitted from municipal solid-waste incinerators (MSWIs). Cd stack emissions from MSWIs have been estimated between 1970 and 2030 in Japan. The aims of this study are to quantify emitted Cd by category and to analyze Cd control policies to reduce emissions. Emissions were estimated using a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) that took into account representative waste treatment flows and historical changes in emission factors. This work revealed that the emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1 t) and were ten times those in 2010 (1.2 t). Emission from MSWIs was two-thirds of that from non-ferrous smelting in 2010. The main Cd emission source was pigment use in the 1970s, but after 2000 it had shifted to nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) batteries. Future emissions were estimated for 2030. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, an intensive collection of used Ni-Cd batteries and a ban on any future use of Ni-Cd batteries will reduce emissions by 0.09 and 0.31 t, respectively, in 2030. This approach enables us to identify the major Cd emission source from MSWIs, and to prioritize the possible Cd control policies.

  19. Global Emissions of Nitrous Oxide: Key Source Sectors, their Future Activities and Technical Opportunities for Emission Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winiwarter, W.; Höglund-Isaksson, L.; Klimont, Z.; Schöpp, W.; Amann, M.

    2017-12-01

    Nitrous oxide originates primarily from natural biogeochemical processes, but its atmospheric concentrations have been strongly affected by human activities. According to IPCC, it is the third largest contributor to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (after carbon dioxide and methane). Deep decarbonization scenarios, which are able to constrain global temperature increase within 1.5°C, require strategies to cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions on top of phasing out carbon dioxide emissions. Employing the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model, we have estimated global emissions of nitrous oxide until 2050. Using explicitly defined emission reduction technologies we demonstrate that, by 2030, about 26% ± 9% of the emissions can be avoided assuming full implementation of currently existing reduction technologies. Nearly a quarter of this mitigation can be achieved at marginal costs lower than 10 Euro/t CO2-eq with the chemical industry sector offering important reductions. Overall, the largest emitter of nitrous oxide, agriculture, also provides the largest emission abatement potentials. Emission reduction may be achieved by precision farming methods (variable rate technology) as well as by agrochemistry (nitrification inhibitors). Regionally, the largest emission reductions are achievable where intensive agriculture and industry are prevalent (production and application of mineral fertilizers): Centrally Planned Asia including China, North and Latin America, and South Asia including India. Further deep cuts in nitrous oxide emissions will require extending reduction efforts beyond strictly technological solutions, i.e., considering behavioral changes, including widespread adoption of "healthy diets" minimizing excess protein consumption.

  20. Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2017-12-01

    Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

  1. Current applications and future developments of positron emission tomography in head and neck cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lonneux, M.

    2005-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET-scan) is a well-established imaging modality in oncology. Using FDG, PET has also a wide range of applications in head and neck tumors for diagnosis, staging, monitoring of response to therapy, and detection of relapse. After a short technical introduction, the current indications of PET-FDG in head and neck tumors are reviewed. Present and future developments of PET are twofold: the use of new tracers for protein synthesis, cellular proliferation or detection of hypoxia etc., and the introduction of metabolic imaging as a adjunct to CT and MRI to determine target-volumes in radiation treatment planning. However, it has to be emphasized that a thorough clinical validation of the methods used is mandatory before their implementation in routine practice. (author)

  2. Future Trends in Worldwide River Nitrogen Transport and Related Nitrous Oxide Emissions: A Scenario Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolien Kroeze

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze possible future trends in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN export by world rivers and associated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O. Our scenarios either assume that current trends continue or that nitrogen (N inputs to aquatic systems are reduced as a result of changes in agriculture practices and fuel combustion technologies. The results indicate that moderate changes in the human diet in North America and Europe, reducing worldwide fertilizer use by only 16%, relative to Business-as-Usual (BAU levels, may reduce DIN export rates to the North Atlantic and European Seas by about one third and associated N2O emissions by 36 to 77%. We furthermore calculate that relatively large reductions in NOy deposition rates in Europe (of about 80% may reduce DIN export by rivers by a moderate 8% or less, relative to BAU levels. The potential effect of reduced NOy deposition on riverine DIN export is moderate, because most N in European rivers stems from agriculture, and not from fuel combustion. Nevertheless, the calculated 9% reduction (relative to BAU in DIN inputs to the North Sea as a potential side effect of air pollution control may help achieve the international policy targets for reduced N inputs to the North Sea.

  3. Study of methane hydrate as a future energy resource: low emission extraction and power generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Yamada, H.; Kanda, Y.; Sasaki, H.; Okajima, J.; Iga, Y.; Komiya, A.; Maruyama, S.

    2016-08-01

    With the fast increase of world energy consumption in recent years, new and sustainable energy sources are becoming more and more important. Methane Hydrate is one promising candidate for the future energy supply of humankind, due to its vast existence in permafrost regions and near-coast seabed. This study is focused on the effective low emission utilization of methane hydrate from deep seabed. The Nankai Trough of Japan is taken as the target region in this study for methane hydrate extraction and utilization system design. Low emission system and power generation system with CCS (Carbon Capture and Sequestration) processes are proposed and analyzed for production rate and electricity generation efficiency problem study. It is found that the gas production price can reach the current domestic natural gas supply price level if the production rate can be improved. The optimized system is estimated to have power efficiency about 35%. In addition, current development and analysis from micro-to-macro scale methane hydrate production and dissociation dynamics are also discussed into detail in this study.

  4. Impact of future nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions on the stratospheric ozone layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Oman, Luke D.; Waugh, Darryn W.

    2015-03-01

    The atmospheric levels of human-produced chlorocarbons and bromocarbons are projected to make only small contributions to ozone depletion by 2100. Increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) will become increasingly important in determining the future of the ozone layer. N2O increases lead to increased production of nitrogen oxides (NOx), contributing to ozone depletion. CO2 increases cool the stratosphere and affect ozone levels in several ways. Cooling decreases the rate of many photochemical reactions, thus slowing ozone loss rates. Cooling also increases the chemical destruction of nitrogen oxides, thereby moderating the effect of increased N2O on ozone depletion. The stratospheric ozone level projected for the end of this century therefore depends on future emissions of both CO2 and N2O. We use a two-dimensional chemical transport model to explore a wide range of values for the boundary conditions for CO2 and N2O, and find that all of the current scenarios for growth of greenhouse gases project the global average ozone to be larger in 2100 than in 1960.

  5. Bleaching and mortality of a photosymbiotic bioeroding sponge under future carbon dioxide emission scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, James K H; Schönberg, Christine H L; Mello-Athayde, Matheus A; Achlatis, Michelle; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

    2018-03-24

    The bioeroding sponge Cliona orientalis is photosymbiotic with dinoflagellates of the genus Symbiodinium and is pervasive on the Great Barrier Reef. We investigated how C. orientalis responded to past and future ocean conditions in a simulated community setting. The experiment lasted over an Austral summer under four carbon dioxide emission scenarios: a pre-industrial scenario (PI), a present-day scenario (PD; control), and two future scenarios of combined ocean acidification and ocean warming, i.e., B1 (intermediate) and A1FI (extreme). The four scenarios also simulated natural variability of carbon dioxide partial pressure and temperature in seawater. Responses of C. orientalis generally remained similar between the PI and PD treatments. C. orientalis under B1 displayed a dramatic increase in lateral tissue extension, but bleached and displayed reduced rates of respiration and photosynthesis. Some B1 sponge replicates died by the end of the experiment. Under A1FI, strong bleaching and subsequent mortality of all C. orientalis replicates occurred at an early stage of the experiment. Mortality arrested bioerosion by C. orientalis under B1 and A1FI. Overall, the absolute amount of calcium carbonate eroded by C. orientalis under B1 or A1FI was similar to that under PI or PD at the end of the experiment. Although bioerosion rates were raised by short-term experimental acidification in previous studies, our findings from the photosymbiotic C. orientalis imply that the effects of bioerosion on reef carbonate budgets may only be temporary if the bioeroders cannot survive long-term in the future oceans.

  6. Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

    2017-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

  7. ESP v1.0: methodology for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. H. Loughlin

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emission growth factors for energy system categories are calculated using the MARKAL energy system model. Growth factors for non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. These factors are used to grow a 2005 emissions inventory through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios for the United States. Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 adds a hypothetical CO2 mitigation policy. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role within an integrated modeling framework that supports the US EPA's investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality.

  8. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  9. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; hide

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  10. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  11. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  12. Zero Emission Buildings in Korea—History, Status Quo, and Future Prospects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schuetze

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the history, status quo, and future prospects of Zero Emission Buildings (ZEBs in the Republic of Korea. The advantages of, and requirements for ZEBs are described, concerning the factors of energy, water, nutrients, and biomass. ZEBs are characterized by net zero energy consumption through the minimization of the energy demand, as well as the onsite production and use of renewable energy. The direct water footprint is reduced by up to 100% through on-site water supply and wastewater management according to the principles of Sustainable Sanitation. The fresh water demand is reduced by using water saving technologies and by recycling of wastewater. Rainwater harvesting, utilization, and infiltration facilitates for onsite drinking water production. Nutrients and biomass from sanitation systems are recycled for local soil application. While traditional Korean buildings can be generally regarded as ZEBs, traditional know-how has been overlooked in the process of modernization and implementation of centralized infrastructure systems in the 20th century. However, the growing interest in sustainability issues in Korea since the beginning of the 21st century is reflected in a growing number of research and development activities, including the design, construction, and operation of ZEBs. The widespread implementation of ZEBs would significantly contribute to sustainable development in the Republic of Korea.

  13. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

    2010-01-01

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  14. Halogenated compounds and climate change: future emission levels and reduction costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harnisch, Jochen; de Jager, David; Gale, John; Stobbel, Oliver

    2002-01-01

    This work assesses the contribution to climate change resulting from emissions of the group of halogenated greenhouse gases. A bottom-up emission model covering 22 technological sectors in four major regions is described. Emission estimates for 1996 and projection for 2010 and 2020 are presented. The costs for deep cuts into projected emission levels are calculated. The substances covered by this study have contributed emissions of 1100 +/- 800 MT CO2 equivalents per year in 1996. In terms of their relative contribution to emissions of CO2 equivalents, this corresponds to 3 +/- 2% of global emissions of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The wide range of uncertainty is due to the poorly quantified net global warming potential of the ozone depleting substances, which have an indirect cooling effect on climate through the destruction of stratospheric ozone. For annual emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (which are regulated under the Kyoto Protocol and for which global warming potentials are well defined), the relative contribution is projected to increase to 2% (600 MT CO2 eq.) of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2010. This trend is expected to continue, emissions are projected to grow to a contribution of roughly 3% (870 MT CO2 eq.) in 2020 compared to 0.9% (300 MT CO2 eq.) in 1996. For HFCs, PFCs and SF6, this study identifies global emission reduction potentials of 260 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2010 and 640 MT CO2 eq. per year in 2020 at below US$ 50 per ton. These values correspond to roughly 40% and 75% of projected emissions in 2010 and 2020, respectively.

  15. On-road vehicle emission control in Beijing: past, present, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ye; Wang, Renjie; Zhou, Yu; Lin, Bohong; Fu, Lixin; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming

    2011-01-01

    Beijing, the capital of China, has experienced rapid motorization since 1990; a trend that is likely to continue. The growth in vehicles and the corresponding emissions create challenges to improving the urban air quality. In an effort to reduce the impact of vehicle emissions on urban air quality, Beijing has adopted a number of vehicle emission control strategies and policies since the mid 1990 s. These are classified into seven categories: (1) emission control on new vehicles; (2) emission control on in-use vehicles; (3) fuel quality improvements; (4) alternative-fuel and advanced vehicles; (5) economic policies; (6) public transport; and (7) temporal traffic control measures. Many have proven to be successful, such as the Euro emission standards, unleaded gasoline and low sulfur fuel, temporal traffic control measures during the Beijing Olympic Games, etc. Some, however, have been failures, such as the gasoline-to-LPG taxi retrofit program. Thanks to the emission standards for new vehicles as well as other controls, the fleet-average emission rates of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) by each major vehicle category are decreasing over time. For example, gasoline cars decreased fleet-average emission factors by 12.5% for CO, 10.0% for HC, 5.8% for NO(X), and 13.0% for PM(10) annually since 1995, and such a trend is likely to continue. Total emissions for Beijing's vehicle fleet increased from 1995 to 1998. However, they show a clear and steady decrease between 1999 and 2009. In 2009, total emissions of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) were 845,000 t, 121,000 t, 84,000 t, and 3700 t, respectively; with reductions of 47%, 49%, 47%, and 42%, relative to 1998. Beijing has been considered a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, similar to the role of California to the U.S. The continued rapid growth of vehicles, however, is challenging Beijing's policy-makers.

  16. Thermal emissions and climate change: Cooler options for future energy technology

    OpenAIRE

    Cowern, Nick E. B.; Ahn, Chihak

    2008-01-01

    Global warming arises from 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the climate system and arising within it. Humanity introduces temperature forcing through greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture, and thermal emissions from fuel burning. Up to now climate projections, neglecting thermal emissions, typically foresee maximum forcing around the year 2050, followed by a decline. In this paper we show that, if humanity's energy use grows at 1%/year, slower ...

  17. Telecommunications energy and greenhouse gas emissions management for future network growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Chien Aun; Gygax, André F.; Leckie, Christopher; Wong, Elaine; Nirmalathas, Ampalavanapillai; Hinton, Kerry

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Model to evaluate key interdependencies of a fast growing telecommunications network. • Network growth analysis using real data and Monte Carlo simulation. • Importance of both operational and embodied energy efficiency improvements. • Embodied energy expected to dominate in the future under current energy efficiency trends. • Carbon footprint and energy management through optimum network replacement cycle. - Abstract: A key aspect of greener network deployment is how to achieve sustainable growth of a telecommunications network, both in terms of operational and embodied energy. Hence, in this paper we investigate how the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a fast growing telecommunications network can be minimized. Due to the complexities in modeling the embodied energy of networks, this aspect of energy consumption has received limited attention by network operators. Here, we present the first model to evaluate the interdependencies of the four main contributing factors in managing the sustainable growth of a telecommunications network: (i) the network’s operational energy consumption; (ii) the embodied energy of network equipment; (iii) network traffic growth; and (iv) the expected energy efficiency improvements in both the operational and embodied phases. Using Monte Carlo techniques with real network data, our results demonstrate that under the current trends in overall energy efficiency improvements the network embodied energy will account for over 40% of the total network energy in 2025 compared to 20% in 2015. Further, we find that the optimum equipment replacement cycle, which will result in the lowest total network life cycle energy, is directly dependent on the technological progress in energy efficiency improvements of both operational and embodied phases. Our model and analysis highlight the need for a comprehensive approach to better understand the interactions between network growth, technological

  18. Future research program on prompt γ-ray emission in nuclear fission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberstedt, S.; Hambsch, F.J. [Joint Research Centre IRMM, European Commission, Geel (Belgium); Billnert, R. [Joint Research Centre IRMM, European Commission, Geel (Belgium); Chalmers Tekniska Hoegskola, Fundamental Fysik, Goeteborg (Sweden); Lebois, M.; Wilson, J.N. [Institut de Physique Nucleaire Orsay, Orsay (France); Oberstedt, A. [Chalmers Tekniska Hoegskola, Fundamental Fysik, Goeteborg (Sweden); Ossolution Consulting, Oerebro (Sweden)

    2015-12-15

    In recent years the measurement of prompt fission γ-ray spectra (PFGS) has gained renewed interest, after about forty years since the first comprehensive studies of the reactions {sup 235}U(n{sub th}, f), {sup 239}Pu(n{sub th},f) and {sup 252}Cf(sf). The renaissance was initiated by requests for new values especially for γ-ray multiplicity and average total energy release per fission in neutron-induced fission of {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu. Both isotopes are considered the most important ones with respect to the modeling of innovative cores required for the Generation-IV reactors, the majority working with fast neutrons. During the last 5 years we have conducted a systematic study of spectral data for thermal-neutron-induced fission on {sup 235}U and {sup 241}Pu as well as for the spontaneous fission of {sup 252}Cf with unprecedented accuracy. From the new data we conclude that those reactions do not considerably contribute to the observed heat excess and suspect other reactions playing a significant role. Possible contributions may originate from fast-neutron-induced reactions on {sup 238}U, which is largely present in the fuel, or from γ-induced fission from neutron capture in the construction material. A first experiment campaign on prompt γ-ray emission from fast-neutron-induced fission on {sup 235,238}U was successfully performed in order to test our assumptions. In the following we attempt to summarize, what has been done in the field to date, and to motivate future measurement campaigns exploiting dedicated neutron and photon beams as well as upcoming highly efficient detector assemblies. (orig.)

  19. Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

    2013-06-18

    Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1° × 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). The global total annual atmospheric emission of 16 PAHs in 2007 was 504 Gg (331-818 Gg, as interquartile range), with residential/commercial biomass burning (60.5%), open-field biomass burning (agricultural waste burning, deforestation, and wildfire, 13.6%), and petroleum consumption by on-road motor vehicles (12.8%) as the major sources. South (87 Gg), East (111 Gg), and Southeast Asia (52 Gg) were the regions with the highest PAH emission densities, contributing half of the global total PAH emissions. Among the global total PAH emissions, 6.19% of the emissions were in the form of high molecular weight carcinogenic compounds and the percentage of the carcinogenic PAHs was higher in developing countries (6.22%) than in developed countries (5.73%), due to the differences in energy structures and the disparities of technology. The potential health impact of the PAH emissions was greatest in the parts of the world with high anthropogenic PAH emissions, because of the overlap of the high emissions and high population densities. Global total PAH emissions peaked at 592 Gg in 1995 and declined gradually to 499 Gg in 2008. Total PAH emissions from developed countries peaked at 122 Gg in the early 1970s and decreased to 38 Gg in 2008. Simulation of PAH emissions from 2009 to 2030 revealed that PAH emissions in developed and developing countries would decrease by 46-71% and 48-64%, respectively, based on the six IPCC SRES scenarios.

  20. Modeling the response of forest isoprene emissions to future increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and changes in climate (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monson, R. K.; Heald, C. L.; Guenther, A. B.; Wilkinson, M.

    2009-12-01

    Isoprene emissions from plants to the atmosphere are sensitive to changes in temperature, light and atmospheric CO2 concentration in both the short- (seconds-to-minutes) and long-term (hours-to-months). We now understand that the different time constants for these responses are due to controls by different sets of biochemical and physiological processes n leaves. Progress has been made in the past few years toward converting this process-level understanding into quantitative models. In this talk, we consider this progress with special emphasis on the short- and long-term responses to atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. A new biochemically-based model is presented for describing the CO2 responses, and the model is deployed in a global context to predict interactions between the influences of temperature and CO2 on the global isoprene emission rate. The model is based on the theory of enzyme-substrate kinetics, particularly with regard to those reactions that produce puruvate or glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate, the two chloroplastic substrates for isoprene biosynthesis. In the global model, when we accounted for CO2 inhibition of isoprene emission in the long-term response, we observed little impact on present-day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr-1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions predicted from past models which are due to a projected warmer climate, were entirely offset by including the CO2 effects. The isoprene emission response to CO2 was dominated by the long-term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less from the short-term effect. We use this analysis as a framework for grounding future global models of isoprene emission in biochemical and physiological observations.

  1. The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dubois, G.; Ceron, J.P.; Peeters, P.M.; Gössling, S.

    2011-01-01

    Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid

  2. The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J M; Fahey, David W; Daniel, John S; McFarland, Mack; Andersen, Stephen O

    2009-07-07

    The consumption and emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades in response to regulation of ozone depleting gases under the Montreal Protocol. The projected increases result primarily from sustained growth in demand for refrigeration, air-conditioning (AC) and insulating foam products in developing countries assuming no new regulation of HFC consumption or emissions. New HFC scenarios are presented based on current hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) consumption in leading applications, patterns of replacements of HCFCs by HFCs in developed countries, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Global HFC emissions significantly exceed previous estimates after 2025 with developing country emissions as much as 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050. Global HFC emissions in 2050 are equivalent to 9-19% (CO(2)-eq. basis) of projected global CO(2) emissions in business-as-usual scenarios and contribute a radiative forcing equivalent to that from 6-13 years of CO(2) emissions near 2050. This percentage increases to 28-45% compared with projected CO(2) emissions in a 450-ppm CO(2) stabilization scenario. In a hypothetical scenario based on a global cap followed by 4% annual reductions in consumption, HFC radiative forcing is shown to peak and begin to decline before 2050.

  3. Estimating future energy use and CO₂ emissions of the world's cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-08-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Technological potential for the future development of diesel engines that fulfil future emissions regulations at low carbon dioxide emission rates.; Darstellung des Technologiepotentials von zukuenftigen Dieselmotoren zur Erfuellung zukuenftiger Emissionsvorschriften bei niedrigem CO{sub 2} Ausstoss

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilhelm, P.; Bertola, A.; Boulouchos, K. [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule (ETH), Labor fuer Aerothermochemie und Verbrennungssysteme, ETH-Zentrum, Zuerich (Switzerland); Mohr, M.; Etissa, D.; Schreiber, D. [Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research (EMPA), Duebendorf (Switzerland)

    2004-07-01

    This yearly report for 2004 presents a review of work being done on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) at the Laboratory for Aero-thermochemistry and Combustion Systems at the Federal Institute of Technology ETH in Zurich, Switzerland, on the technological potential for the future development of diesel engines that fulfil future emissions regulations at low carbon dioxide emission rates. Work done included the construction of an internal gas extraction probe (IGE probe). The development and simulation of the probe and the choice of materials used are discussed. Co-operation with the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research in the area of measurement technology and exhaust-gas analysis is discussed. The development of a 3-D simulation model for a commercial diesel engine is commented on and the problems involved discussed. Future work on this new four-cylinder engine with respect to its fulfilling of the TIER 3 and TIER 4 emissions norms is reviewed.

  5. Historical and future emission of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from gas-fired combustion in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yifeng; Nie, Lei; Zhou, Zhen; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Wu, Xiaoqing; Cheng, Linglong

    2017-07-01

    The consumption of natural gas in Beijing has increased in the past decade due to energy structure adjustments and air pollution abatement. In this study, an integrated emission inventory of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted from gas-fired combustion in Beijing was developed for the period from 2000 to 2014 using a technology-based approach. Future emission trends were projected through 2030 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. We found that emissions of primary HAPs exhibited an increasing trend with the rapid increase in natural gas consumption. Our estimates indicated that the total emissions of NO X , particulate matter (PM) 10 , PM 2.5 , CO, VOCs, SO 2 , black carbon, Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, and benzo[a]pyrene from gas-fired combustion in Beijing were approximately 22,422 t, 1042 t, 781 t, 19,097 t, 653 t, 82 t, 19 t, 0.6 kg, 0.1 kg, 43 kg, 52 kg, 0.3 kg, 0.03 kg, 4.3 kg, 0.6 kg, 216 μg, and 242 g, respectively, in 2014. To mitigate the associated air pollution and health risks caused by gas-fired combustion, stricter emission standards must be established. Additionally, combustion optimization and flue gas purification system could be used for lowering NO X emissions from gas-fired combustion, and gas-fired facilities should be continuously monitored based on emission limits. Graphical abstract Spatial distribution and typical live photos of gas-fired boiler in Beijing.

  6. Assessment for Fuel Consumption and Exhaust Emissions of China’s Vehicles: Future Trends and Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Wu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In the recent years, China’s auto industry develops rapidly, thus bringing a series of burdens to society and environment. This paper uses Logistic model to simulate the future trend of China’s vehicle population and finds that China’s auto industry would come into high speed development time during 2020–2050. Moreover, this paper predicts vehicles’ fuel consumption and exhaust emissions (CO, HC, NOx, and PM and quantificationally evaluates related industry policies. It can be concluded that (1 by 2020, China should develop at least 47 million medium/heavy hybrid cars to prevent the growth of vehicle fuel consumption; (2 China should take the more stringent vehicle emission standard V over 2017–2021 to hold back the growth of exhaust emissions; (3 developing new energy vehicles is the most effective measure to ease the pressure brought by auto industry.

  7. Water and energy link in the cities of the future - achieving net zero carbon and pollution emissions footprint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novotny, V

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses the link between water conservation, reclamation, reuse and energy use as related to the goal of achieving the net zero carbon emission footprint in future sustainable cities. It defines sustainable ecocities and outlines quantitatively steps towards the reduction of energy use due to water and used water flows, management and limits in linear and closed loop water/stormwater/wastewater management systems. The three phase water energy nexus diagram may have a minimum inflection point beyond which reduction of water demand may not result in a reduction of energy and carbon emissions. Hence, water conservation is the best alternative solution to water shortages and minimizing the carbon footprint. A marginal water/energy chart is developed and proposed to assist planners in developing future ecocities and retrofitting older communities to achieve sustainability.

  8. Future energy consumption and emissions in East-, Central- and West-China: Insights from soft-linking two global models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dai, Hancheng; Mischke, Peggy

    2014-01-01

    China's role in the global economy and energy markets is expanding, however many uncertainties with regards to the country's future energy consumption and emissions remain. Large regional disparities between China's provinces exist. Scenario analysis for different sub-regions of China...... will be useful for an improved understanding of China's potential future development and associated global impacts. This study soft-links a global dynamic CGE model and a global technology-rich energy system model. Both models are expanded to include East-, Central-, and West-China. This study shows that soft...

  9. Enabling Future Large Searches for Exoplanet Auroral Emission with the EPIC Correlator Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyagarajan, Nithyanandan; Beardsley, Adam P.; Bowman, Judd D.; Morales, Miguel F.

    2017-05-01

    Extrasolar planets are expected to emit strong ``auroral'' emission at radio frequencies generated by the interaction of the host star's stellar winds with the planet's magnetosphere through electron-cyclotron maser emission. This transient emission lasts a few seconds to days and is almost fully circularly polarized. Detecting this emission in exoplanets is a critical probe of their magnetospheres and thus their interior compositions and habitability. The intensity and detectability of the emission depends on the suitability of many factors to the observing parameters such as the strength of the stellar wind power, the planetary magnetosphere cross-section, the highly beamed and coherent nature of electron-cyclotron emission, and narrow ranges of the planet's orbital phase. Large areas of sky must be surveyed continuously to high sensitivity to detect auroral emission. Next-generation radio telescopes with wide fields of view, large collecting areas and high efficiency are needed for these searches. This poses challenges to traditional correlator architectures whose computational cost scales as the square of the number of antennas. I will present a novel radio aperture synthesis imaging architecture - E-field Parallel Imaging Correlator (EPIC) - whose all-sky and full Stokes imaging capabilities will not only address the aforementioned factors preventing detection but also solve the computational challenges posed by large arrays. Compared to traditional imaging, EPIC is inherently fast and thus presents the unique advantage of probing transient timescales ranging orders of magnitude from tens of microseconds to days at no additional cost.

  10. Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heil, M.T.

    2001-01-01

    This paper estimates the historic relationship between carbon emissions and GDP using data across countries and across time. We combine this relationship with plausible projections for GDP and population growth to construct a model that offers insights into the likely path of global emissions in the next century. In addition, we experiment with a method for incorporating oil prices into the model. Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the larger structural models. (author)

  11. Evaluating Future Land-use Change Scenarios: Trade-offs between Bio-energy Demand, Food Production, and Carbon Emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2012-12-01

    In the construction of consistent future climate scenario, land use scenario has important role through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects on climate change. In terms of carbon emissions by the land-use change, relative importance may be high in the lower radiative forcing and lower carbon emission scenarios, which may use large amount of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). In this study, we first evaluated the CO2 emissions by land-use change in the 21st century using each RCPs scenarios. We use an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model VISIT, with book-keeping consideration of the carbon emission from deforested biomass and the regrowing uptake from abandoned cropland and pasture employing the gridded transition land-use data from RCPs. Effect of CO2 fertilization, land-use transition itself, and climate change are evaluated in the analysis. We found that constructing consistent land-use change carbon emission scenario with the gridded land-use change data requires precise considerations of effects of CO2 fertilization and climate change particularly for the regrowing uptake. Also, our result showed more emission of CO2 by the land-use change than the assumption in the integrated assessment model for RCP2.6 scenario. Then, we estimated the land-use area required to sustain the required biofuel production to match the assumption of BECCS use in RCPs with a global process based crop model. In the evaluation, we also estimated the further changes in carbon emissions by the required land-use change due to differences in crop yield assumptions, which also take into account of climate change. The trade-offs between land-use for crop, biocrop, and natural vegetation low-carbon scenario are discussed using the integrated terrestrial modeling approach.

  12. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  13. Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status, future trends, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Kebin; Huo Hong; Zhang Qiang; He Dongquan; An Feng; Wang, Michael; Walsh, M.P.

    2005-01-01

    With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO 2 emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO 2 emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO 2 emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO 2 emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time

  14. Current and future greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation in China: implications for electric vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Wei; Han, Weijian; Wallington, Timothy J

    2014-06-17

    China's oil imports and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown rapidly over the past decade. Addressing energy security and GHG emissions is a national priority. Replacing conventional vehicles with electric vehicles (EVs) offers a potential solution to both issues. While the reduction in petroleum use and hence the energy security benefits of switching to EVs are obvious, the GHG benefits are less obvious. We examine the current Chinese electric grid and its evolution and discuss the implications for EVs. China's electric grid will be dominated by coal for the next few decades. In 2015 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, EVs will need to use less than 14, 19, and 23 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 183 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. In 2020, in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou EVs will need to use less than 13, 18, and 20 kWh/100 km, respectively, to match the 137 gCO2/km WTW emissions for energy saving vehicles. EVs currently demonstrated in China use 24-32 kWh/100 km. Electrification will reduce petroleum imports; however, it will be very challenging for EVs to contribute to government targets for GHGs emissions reduction.

  15. Impacts of urban form on future US passenger-vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hankey, Steve; Marshall, Julian D. [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

    2010-09-15

    Urban form - for example, sprawl versus infill development - impacts people's daily travel patterns and annual vehicle-kilometers traveled (VKT). This paper explores how urban form impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger-vehicles, the largest source of urban transportation GHG emissions. Our research uses a recently published urban scaling rule to develop six scenarios for high- and low-sprawl US urban growth. We develop and apply a Monte Carlo approach that describes ensemble statistics for several dozen urban areas rather than forecasting changes in individual urban areas. Then, employing three vehicle- and fuel-technology scenarios, we estimate total passenger VKT and resulting GHG emissions for US urban areas. Our results indicate that comprehensive compact development could reduce US 2000-2020 cumulative emissions by up to 3.2 GtCO{sub 2}e (15-20% of projected cumulative emissions). In general, vehicle GHG mitigation may involve three types of approaches: more-efficient vehicles, lower-GHG fuels, and reduced VKT. Our analyses suggest that all three categories must be evaluated; otherwise, improvements in one or two areas (e.g., vehicle fuel economy, fuel carbon content) can be offset by backsliding in a third area (e.g., VKT growth). (author)

  16. The methodologies and instruments of vehicle particulate emission measurement for current and future legislative regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otsuki, Yoshinori; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Arai, Masataka; Xu, Min

    2015-09-01

    Since the health risks associated with fine particles whose aerodynamic diameters are smaller than 2.5 μm was first proven, regulations restricting particulate matter (PM) mass emissions from internal combustion engines have become increasingly severe. Accordingly, the gravimetric method of PM mass measurement is facing its lower limit of detection as the emissions from vehicles are further reduced. For example, the variation in the adsorption of gaseous components such as hydrocarbons from unburned fuel and lubricant oil and the presence of agglomerated particles, which are not directly generated in engine combustion but re-entrainment particulates from walls of sampling pipes, can cause uncertainty in measurement. The PM mass measurement systems and methodologies have been continuously refined in order to improve measurement accuracy. As an alternative metric, the particle measurement programme (PMP) within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) developed a solid particle number measurement method in order to improve the sensitivity of particulate emission measurement from vehicles. Consequently, particle number (PN) limits were implemented into the regulations in Europe from 2011. Recently, portable emission measurement systems (PEMS) for in-use vehicle emission measurements are also attracting attention, currently in North America and Europe, and real-time PM mass and PN instruments are under evaluation.

  17. The methodologies and instruments of vehicle particulate emission measurement for current and future legislative regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otsuki, Yoshinori; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Arai, Masataka; Xu, Min

    2015-01-01

    Since the health risks associated with fine particles whose aerodynamic diameters are smaller than 2.5 μm was first proven, regulations restricting particulate matter (PM) mass emissions from internal combustion engines have become increasingly severe. Accordingly, the gravimetric method of PM mass measurement is facing its lower limit of detection as the emissions from vehicles are further reduced. For example, the variation in the adsorption of gaseous components such as hydrocarbons from unburned fuel and lubricant oil and the presence of agglomerated particles, which are not directly generated in engine combustion but re-entrainment particulates from walls of sampling pipes, can cause uncertainty in measurement. The PM mass measurement systems and methodologies have been continuously refined in order to improve measurement accuracy. As an alternative metric, the particle measurement programme (PMP) within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) developed a solid particle number measurement method in order to improve the sensitivity of particulate emission measurement from vehicles. Consequently, particle number (PN) limits were implemented into the regulations in Europe from 2011. Recently, portable emission measurement systems (PEMS) for in-use vehicle emission measurements are also attracting attention, currently in North America and Europe, and real-time PM mass and PN instruments are under evaluation. (topical review)

  18. Forecasting future utility and industrial SO/sub 2/ emissions under regulatory and economic uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pechan, E.H.; Graves, K.; Turner, D.

    1985-01-01

    In this paper, national and regional forecasts of sulfur dioxide (SO/sub 2/) emissions from various source sectors are presented. The results focus on the effects of alternative economic and regulatory scenarios on the emission patterns. These emission estimates were obtained using the Environmental Trends Analysis Model II (ETAM II), an environmental forecasting model originally developed to support the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) 1983 National Energy Policy Plan (NEPP). Since then, it has been updated with modified algorithms, additional capabilities, and additional data. The resulting model, ETAM II, has been used for policy and sensitivity analyses in support of programs such as the Interagency Disability Task Force and the Interagency Prevention of Significant Deterioration Task Force. ETAM II is unique in that it both covers numerous residuals and all economic sectors discharging those residuals, and it is easy to use for policy analysis purposes.

  19. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin; Langren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

    2017-04-01

    This work aims to study the changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in a world of changing emissions and climate by focusing on India. Stakeholders in India are already aware about air quality issues but anthropogenic emissions are projected to largely increase for some of the pollutants in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no more policy efforts are made. Only the policies in place before 2014/15 have been taken into account while projecting the future emissions. Current policies have led to decrease in emission intensities, however may not be enough for control of absolute emissions in future. In this study, the regional EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model is used forced by downscaled meteorological fields at a 50 km resolution following the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated with surface-based measurements. Given the relatively coarse resolution of the meteorological fields used for this comparison with urban observations, the agreement can be considered satisfactory as high correlations with O3 (r=0.9) and PM2.5 (r=0.5 and r=0.8 depending on the data set) are noticed. The bias in PM2.5 is limited (lower than 6%) but the model overestimates the O3 by 35%. Then, this work shows that in the 2050s, the variation in O3 linked to the climate change is mainly due to the change in O3 deposition velocity related to the change in the boundary layer height and, over a few areas, by changes in VOCs. At short term and medium-term, the PM2.5 is predicted to increase due to climate change, by up to 6.5% in the 2050s. This climatic variation is mainly explained by increases in dust, organic matter and secondary inorganic aerosols which are affected by the change in wind speed and precipitations. The large increase in anthropogenic emissions will modify the composition of PM2.5 over India as the secondary inorganic aerosols will be dominant. The

  20. Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

    2009-07-01

    Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

  1. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; Dunphy, R. T.; Vimmerstedt, L.

    2013-03-01

    Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  2. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation. Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Dunphy, R. T. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-03-15

    Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  3. Future trends in emissions of N2O from rivers and estuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze, C.; Dumont, E.L.; Seitzinger, S.

    2010-01-01

    Emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from aquatic systems such as rivers and estuaries are enhanced as a result of human activities on land resulting in enhanced nitrogen availability in aquatic systems. These human activities include agricultural activities such as fertilizer use, as well as industrial

  4. The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. How much do electric drive vehicles matter to future U.S. emissions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babaee, Samaneh; Nagpure, Ajay S; DeCarolis, Joseph F

    2014-01-01

    Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles--known collectively as electric drive vehicles (EDVs)--may represent a clean and affordable option to meet growing U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand. The goal of this study is 2-fold: identify the conditions under which EDVs achieve high LDV market penetration in the U.S. and quantify the associated change in CO2, SO2, and NOX emissions through midcentury. We employ the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES), a bottom-up energy system model, along with a U.S. data set developed for this analysis. To characterize EDV deployment through 2050, varying assumptions related to crude oil and natural gas prices, a CO2 policy, a federal renewable portfolio standard, and vehicle battery cost were combined to form 108 different scenarios. Across these scenarios, oil prices and battery cost have the biggest effect on EDV deployment. The model results do not demonstrate a clear and consistent trend toward lower system-wide emissions as EDV deployment increases. In addition to the trade-off between lower tailpipe and higher electric sector emissions associated with plug-in vehicles, the scenarios produce system-wide emissions effects that often mask the effect of EDV deployment.

  6. FUTURE FOSSIL FUEL PRICE IMPACTS ON NDC ACHIEVEMENT; ESTIMATION OF GHG EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Arino

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Shale Revolution in the US, a supply-side innovation in oil and gas production, has been dramatically changing the world’s fossil fuel energy markets – leading to a decrease in oil, gas and coal prices. Some projections suggest that low fossil fuel prices might continue at least over the next few decades. Uncertainty in fossil fuel prices might affect the levels of emission reductions expected from submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs and/or influence the difficulty of achieving the NDCs. This paper evaluated the impact of different (high, medium, and low fossil fuel prices, sustained through to 2050, on worldwide GHG emissions reductions and associated costs (mainly marginal abatement costs (MACs. Total global GHG emissions were estimated to be 57.5-61.5 GtCO2eq by 2030, with the range shown reflecting uncertainties about fossil fuel prices and the target levels of several NDCs (i.e., whether their upper or lower targets were adopted. It was found that lower fuel prices not only diminished the environmental effectiveness of global NDCs but also widened regional differences of marginal and total abatement costs, thereby generating more room for carbon leakage. One possible policy direction in terms of abatement efficiency, fairness and environmental effectiveness would be to require countries with low marginal and total abatement costs but having a major influence on global GHG emissions (such as China and India to increase their mitigation efforts, especially in a low-fuelprice world.

  7. Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bristow, Mila; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Beringer, Jason; Livesley, Stephen J.; Edwards, Andrew C.; Arndt, Stefan K.

    2016-11-01

    this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha-1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha-1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission) and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %). Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) was a net carbon sink of -2.1 Mg C ha-1, or -7.7 Mg CO2-e ha-1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1) provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2) compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only) savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use decision making processes associated with land and water resource

  8. Quantifying the relative importance of greenhouse gas emissions from current and future savanna land use change across northern Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bristow

    2016-11-01

    provide a total GHG emission from this land use change. The total emission from this savanna woodland was 148.3 Mg CO2-e ha−1 with the debris burning responsible for 121.9 Mg CO2-e ha−1 or 82 % of the total emission. The remaining emission was attributed to CO2 efflux from soil disturbance during site preparation for agriculture (10 % of the total emission and decay of debris during the curing period prior to burning (8 %. Over the same period, fluxes at the uncleared savanna woodland site were measured using a second flux tower and over the 22-month observation period, cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE was a net carbon sink of −2.1 Mg C ha−1, or −7.7 Mg CO2-e ha−1. Estimated emissions for this savanna type were then extrapolated to a regional-scale to (1 provide estimates of the magnitude of GHG emissions from any future deforestation and (2 compare them with GHG emissions from prescribed savanna burning that occurs across the northern Australian savanna every year. Emissions from current rate of annual savanna deforestation across northern Australia was double that of reported (non-CO2 only savanna burning. However, if the total GHG emission, CO2 plus non-CO2 emissions, is accounted for, burning emissions are an order of magnitude larger than that arising from savanna deforestation. We examined a scenario of expanded land use that required additional deforestation of savanna woodlands over and above current rates. This analysis suggested that significant expansion of deforestation area across the northern savanna woodlands could add an additional 3 % to Australia's national GHG account for the duration of the land use change. This bottom-up study provides data that can reduce uncertainty associated with land use change for this extensive tropical ecosystem and provide an assessment of the relative magnitude of GHG emissions from savanna burning and deforestation. Such knowledge can contribute to informing land use

  9. Trend and future of diesel engine: Development of high efficiency and low emission low temperature combustion diesel engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, R. J.; Yusoff, M. Z.; Palanisamy, K.

    2013-06-01

    Stringent emission policy has put automotive research & development on developing high efficiency and low pollutant power train. Conventional direct injection diesel engine with diffused flame has reached its limitation and has driven R&D to explore other field of combustion. Low temperature combustion (LTC) and homogeneous charge combustion ignition has been proven to be effective methods in decreasing combustion pollutant emission. Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) and Particulate Matter (PM) formation from combustion can be greatly suppressed. A review on each of method is covered to identify the condition and processes that result in these reductions. The critical parameters that allow such combustion to take place will be highlighted and serves as emphasis to the direction of developing future diesel engine system. This paper is written to explore potential of present numerical and experimental methods in optimizing diesel engine design through adoption of the new combustion technology.

  10. The policy relevance of wear emissions from road transport, now and in the future--an international workshop report and consensus statement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Gon, Hugo A C Denier; Gerlofs-Nijland, Miriam E; Gehrig, Robert; Gustafsson, Mats; Janssen, Nicole; Harrison, Roy M; Hulskotte, Jan; Johansson, Christer; Jozwicka, Magdalena; Keuken, Menno; Krijgsheld, Klaas; Ntziachristos, Leonidas; Riediker, Michael; Cassee, Flemming R

    2013-02-01

    Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust emissions, but do not address "nonexhaust" emissions from brake wear, tire wear, road wear and suspension in air of road dust. Is this a problem? To what extent do nonexhaust emissions contribute to ambient concentrations of PM10 or PM2.5? In the near future, wear emissions may dominate the remaining traffic-related PM10 emissions in Europe, mostly due to the steep decrease in PM exhaust emissions. This underlines the need to determine the relevance of the wear emissions as a contribution to the existing ambient PM concentrations, and the need to assess the health risks related to wear particles, which has not yet received much attention. During a workshop in 2011, available knowledge was reported and evaluated so as to draw conclusions on the relevance of traffic-related wear emissions for air quality policy development. On the basis of available evidence, which is briefly presented in this paper it was concluded that nonexhaust emissions and in particular suspension in air of road dust are major contributors to exceedances at street locations of the PM10 air quality standards in various European cities. Furthermore, wear-related PM emissions that contain high concentrations of metals may (despite their limited contribution to the mass of nonexhaust emissions) cause significant health risks for the population, especially those living near intensely trafficked locations. To quantify the existing health risks, targeted research is required on wear emissions, their dispersion in urban areas, population exposure, and its effects on health. Such information will be crucial for environmental policymakers as an input for discussions on the need to develop control strategies. Road

  11. The future of the SIRAD SEE facility Ion-Electron Emission Microscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Wyss, J; Kaminski, A; Magalini, A; Nigro, M; Pantano, D; Sedhykh, S

    2002-01-01

    The SIRAD facility is dedicated to radiation damage studies on semiconductor detectors, electronic devices and systems, using proton and ion beams delivered by a 15 MV tandem accelerator. It is routinely used by groups involved in detector development for elementary particle physics, electronic device physics and space applications. In particular, Single Event Effect studies are very important to the latter two activities. Presently, the facility can only characterize the global sensitivity of a device or system to single ion impacts. To map out the sensitivity of a device with micrometric resolution, following an idea developed at SANDIA, we will implement an Ion-Electron Emission Microscope (IEEM) to reconstruct the X,Y and time coordinates of an impacting energetic ion by imaging the secondary electrons emitted by the sample using a standard emission electron microscope and position sensitive detector system. After describing typical Single Event Effect activities at SIRAD we will discuss the basic princip...

  12. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  13. Inverse Modelling of Global Methane Emissions: Past Achievement and Future Prospects of using Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houweling, S.; Pandey, S.; Segers, A.

    2017-12-01

    Methane is regarded as a suitable target for short-term climate mitigation, because of its relatively short atmospheric residence time compared to carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases. However, to build climate policy on methane is complicated because of the uncertainties in its emission budget, reflected in the difficulty to predict its global growth rate. Several different and conflicting scenarios have been proposed in high profile journals to explain its recent evolution in the atmosphere. Since the early 2000s atmospheric methane is being measured by Earth orbiting satellites. Missions such as SCIAMACHY and GOSAT have largely increased the number of atmospheric methane measurements that are available for the quantification its emissions using inverse modelling techniques. In this presentation, we address the question what has been the role of satellite data in the discussion about the causes of the varying growth rate of methane, and what are the remaining limitations. This is the time when space borne remote sensing of methane is transitioning from exploratory scientific missions to monitoring missions, starting with the preoperational mission S5p TROPOMI to be launched in September 2017. In the meantime, also inverse modelling techniques are prepared for operational use in support of COP21 agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These developments bring new opportunities and challenges, which will be discussed.

  14. REDD+ projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo: impacts on future emissions, income and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosnier, Aline; Bocqueho, Geraldine; Mant, Rebecca; Obersteiner, Michael; Havlik, Petr; Kapos, Val; Fritz, Steffen; Botrill, Leo

    2014-05-01

    The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) encompasses a large rainforest area which has been rather preserved up to now. However, pressure on the forests is increasing with high population growth, transition toward political stability and the abundance of minerals in the country. REDD+ is a developing mechanism under the UNFCCC that aims to support developing countries that want to make efforts to reduce their emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The REDD+ strategy in DRC combines an independent national fund and independent REDD+ projects at the local level that are at the initial stage of implementation. The objective of this paper is to assess i) emissions reduction due to the implementation of the REDD+ pilot projects taking into account potential leakage and ii) potential co-benefits of REDD+ pilot projects in terms of biodiversity and rural income by 2030. We use the land use economic model CongoBIOM adapted from GLOBIOM which represents land-based activities and land use changes at a 50x50km resolution level. It includes domestic and international demand for agricultural products, fuel wood and minerals which are the main deforestation drivers in the Congo Basin region. Finally, we run a sensitivity analysis on emissions from land use change according to three different above and below ground living biomass estimates: downscaled FAO, NASA and WHRC.

  15. Recent climatic change, greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: The implications for India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, P. Govinda; Kelly, P. M.; Hulme, M.

    1996-03-01

    In this paper, we discuss past climatic trends over India, greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption, forest and land-use changes, climate change scenarios for the year 2050, potential consequences for agriculture and cyclone activity and the possibility that India might limit the increasing trend in its emissions. India's mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by about 0.4°C over the past ccntury. Neither monsoon nor annual rainfall shows any significant trend. On average, there has been a rise in sea levels around India over recent decades, though considerable uncertainties exist in the accuracy and interpretation of the available data. Carbon emissions from the energy sector amount to 71 MT a year, equivalent to all other sectors combined. From land-use data, a marginal net sequestration of 5.25 million tonnes of carbon occurred during 1986. Following the IPCC guidelines, methane emissions from rice and livestock are estimated at 17.4 and 12.8 Tg/year, respectively. According to recent climate model projections, India may experience a further rise in temperature of 1 °C by the year 2050, about four times the rate of warming experienced over the past 100 years. A modest increase in precipitation amounts might occur. Cereals production is estimated to decrease and the nutrition security of the population-rich but land-hungry region of India might be hampered. An increase in local tropical cyclone activity may occur over thc next century, posing added problems as large areas in the coastal regions have a dense population. About 70% of the electricity generation in India is from coal-based power stations. Altering this dependence significantly to reduce emissions would imply a substantial change in the present energy policy of India. There is great potential for improving energy efficiency and conservation. The adoption of cleaner coal-technologies should be considered, as must the development of renewable, non-conventional energy

  16. The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahba, Mohammed; Hope, Chris

    2006-01-01

    This paper uses the PAGE2002 model to calculate the marginal impact of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the A2 and B2 marker scenarios of the IPCC, and its distribution across regions, sectors, and over time. PAGE2002 considers the possibility of large-scale discontinuities, a major concern in the IPCC TAR. PAGE2002 estimates the mean value of the marginal impact for CO 2 under scenario A2 to be $19 per tonne of carbon (tC), equivalent to $5 per tonne of CO 2 . The 95% and 5% values for the marginal impact are $49/tC and $5/tC. The mean value under scenario B2 is estimated to be $14/tC, with 95% and 5% points as $41/tC and $3/tC, respectively. The marginal impact is sensitive to the pure rate of time preference, and doubles for a 1% reduction from 3% to 2%. Additionally, adaptation policy affects the marginal impact estimates; they increase by 50% if no adaptation policy is implemented. Benefits from reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will affect the globe as a whole, but with various regions being more affected than others. Developing countries would receive about 50% of the benefit, whereas the European Union's benefits would be about 7%; only about 2% of the benefits would be felt in the USA. Benefits from an immediate reduction in CO 2 emissions peak around the year 2100. About 60% of the benefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions are non-economic, with economic and large-scale discontinuities being about 20% each

  17. Envisioning Nano Release Dynamics in a Changing World: Using Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling to Assess Future Environmental Emissions of Engineered Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tian Yin; Mitrano, Denise M; Bornhöft, Nikolaus A; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

    2017-03-07

    The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental emissions. Material flow models (MFA) have been used to provide predicted environmental emissions but most current nano-MFA models consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that a large proportion of ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released from products over time (i.e., have a lag phase). Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict scenarios of the future flows of four ENM (nano-TiO 2 , nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to environmental compartments and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. In these scenarios, we estimate likely future amounts if the use and distribution of ENM in products continues along current trends (i.e., a business-as-usual approach) and predict the effect of hypothetical trends in the market development of nanomaterials, such as the emergence of a new widely used product or the ban on certain substances, on the flows of nanomaterials to the environment in years to come. We show that depending on the scenario and the product type affected, significant changes of the flows occur over time, driven by the growth of stocks and delayed release dynamics.

  18. Designing policies for reducing future emissions of greenhouse gases in the People's Republic of China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streets, D.G.; He Jiankun; Wu Zongxin

    1994-01-01

    The People's Republic of China gas recognized the importance of climate change concerns and has signed the Climate Change Convention, formulated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. China is now beginning the process of developing an appropriate response strategy for climate change. Several projects have been initiated that deal with various aspects of global climate change. The Asian Development Bank is assisting the Chinese Government in this endeavor by providing technical assistance under an agreement signed in August 1992. The Bank selected a team of international consultants, coordinated by the East-West Center in Hawaii and including Argonne National Laboratory and Japanese scientists, to work closely with Chinese scientists to develop information that would contribute to a national response strategy. The Chinese research team is led by scientists from Tsinghua University and includes specialists from a number of research institutes and government agencies, all under the aegis of the State Science and Technology Commission. This paper presents results from the study concerning the interrelationship among economic growth, energy use, and carbon dioxide emissions in China, The study shows that, despite rapid improvements in energy efficiency and development of nonfossil-fuel energy sources, it will be difficult to prevent a two to three-fold increase in carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2050

  19. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  20. Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

    2018-03-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

  1. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  2. FUTURES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  3. Parameterisation of LCI/LCIA models of agricultural systems emissions under future pressures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Dijkman, Teunis Johannes; Birkved, Morten

    Agricultural production currently faces two important challenges that need to be overcome in the next decades. Firstly, the expected increase of the global human population will put more pressure on productive ecosystems to accommodate the growing need for food. Secondly, climate change...... and environmental pressures have in common is the urge to enhance agricultural/food production efficiency, i.e. to produce more (while maintaining an acceptable quality) despite the difficulties raised by climate-driven pressures. Land-based food production is expected to compete with feed/non-food crops, forestry...... as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions is forecasted to increase the pressure on natural and semi-natural systems’ productivity through various mechanisms resulting in e.g. an increased frequency of severe weather events or loss of nutrients in soil. An aspect that both the increasing food demand...

  4. N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  5. On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2009-01-01

    The recent implementation of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in January 2005 created new financial risks for emitting firms. To deal with these risks, options are traded since October 2006. Because the EU ETS is a new market, the relevant underlying model for option pricing is still a controversial issue. This article improves our understanding of this issue by characterizing the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures contract in the European Climate Exchange (ECX), which is valid during Phase II (2008-2012) of the EU ETS. The realized volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and sub-sampling estimators are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and dynamic properties of the ECX emissions futures volatility. The distribution of the daily realized volatility in logarithmic form is shown to be close to normal. The mixture-of-distributions hypothesis is strongly rejected, as the returns standardized using daily measures of volatility clearly departs from normality. A simplified HAR-RV model (Corsi, 2009) with only a weekly component, which reproduces long memory properties of the series, is then used to model the volatility dynamics. Finally, the predictive accuracy of the HAR-RV model is tested against GARCH specifications using one-step-ahead forecasts, which confirms the HAR-RV superior ability. Our conclusions indicate that (i) the standard Brownian motion is not an adequate tool for option pricing in the EU ETS, and (ii) a jump component should be included in the stochastic process to price options, thus providing more efficient tools for risk-management activities. (authors)

  6. Climate Change Projections for the Tropical Andes Using Multiple Emission Scenarios: Implications for Future Glaciation and Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuille, M.; Urrutia, R.

    2008-12-01

    Observations on glacier extent in the tropical Andes give a detailed and unequivocal account of rapid shrinkage of tropical Andean glaciers since the Little Ice Age. Future climate change will likely continue to affect high-elevation tropical mountain regions more strongly than their surrounding lowlands. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will affect the size and distribution of glaciers and wetlands, ecosystem integrity, and water availability for human consumption, irrigation, mining and power production. With this looming threat for future water supplies in the tropical Andes, discussions about adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies abound. Yet detailed projections of future climate change in the tropical Andes, which should form the basis for any such measure, are not yet available. Here we will present first results for the end of the 21st century (2071- 2100) using a regional climate model based on two different emission scenarios (A2 and B2). Our results indicate significant warming in the tropical Andes, ranging from 2° C to 7° C, depending on location and scenario considered. The warming is enhanced at higher elevations and further amplified in the mid-and upper troposphere. Temperature changes are spatially similar in both scenarios, but the amplitude is significantly higher (up to 3° C) in A2. The A2 scenario also shows a significant increase in interannual temperature variability, while it remains almost unchanged in B2 when compared to a 20th century control run. Inspection of the annual mean temperature probability density function for both slopes of the Andes further reveals that there is no overlap between mean annual temperature of either of the two future scenarios with a control run. In both cases the coldest temperatures projected for the years 2071-2100 are much higher than the warmest years in the modern control run (1961-90). Changes in precipitation are spatially much less coherent, with both regions of

  7. 'Capture ready' regulation of fossil fuel power plants - Betting the UK's carbon emissions on promises of future technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markusson, Nils; Haszeldine, Stuart

    2010-01-01

    Climate change legislation requires emissions reductions, but the market shows interest in investing in new fossil fuelled power plants. The question is whether capture ready policy can reconcile these interests. The term 'capture ready' has been used a few years by the UK Government when granting licences for fossil fuelled power plants, but only recently has the meaning of the term been defined. The policy has been promoted as a step towards CCS and as an insurance against carbon lock-in. This paper draws on literature on technology lock-in and on regulation of technology undergoing development. Further, versions of the capture readiness concept proposed to date are compared. Capture readiness requirements beyond the minimum criterion of space on the site for capture operations are explored. This includes integration of capture and power plant, downstream operations, overall system integration and regulation of future retrofitting. Capture readiness comes with serious uncertainties and is no guarantee that new-built fossil plants will be abatable or abated in the future. As a regulatory strategy, it has been over-promised in the UK.

  8. Application of AERMOD on near future air quality simulation under the latest national emission control policy of China: a case study on an industrial city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jieyun; Yi, Honghong; Tang, Xiaolong; Zhang, Yan; Xiang, Ying; Pu, Li

    2013-08-01

    Air quality model can be an adequate tool for future air quality prediction, also atmospheric observations supporting and emission control strategies responders. The influence of emission control policy (emission reduction targets in the national "China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)") on the air quality in the near future over an important industrial city of China, Xuanwei in Yunnan Province, was studied by applying the AERMOD modeling system. First, our analysis demonstrated that the AERMOD modeling system could be used in the air quality simulation in the near future for SO2 and NOx under average meteorology but not for PM10. Second, after evaluating the simulation results in 2008 and 2015, ambient concentration of SO2, NOx and PM10 (only 2008) were all centered in the middle of simulation area where the emission sources concentrated, and it is probably because the air pollutions were source oriented. Last but not least, a better air quality condition will happen under the hypothesis that the average meteorological data can be used in near future simulation. However, there are still heavy polluted areas where ambient concentrations will exceed the air quality standard in near future. In spatial allocation, reduction effect of SO2 is more significant than NOx in 2015 as the contribution of SO2 from industry is more than NOx. These results inspired the regulatory applications of AERMOD modeling system in evaluating environmental pollutant control policy.

  9. Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. F. Lam

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone, the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction, except for the Northeast area, where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10 % or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8 over the Eastern United States. For PM2.5, the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect, where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM2.5 reductions. The annual average 24-h PM2.5 of the future-year condition was found to be about 40 % lower than the one from the present-year condition, of which 60 % of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO4 and NO3 particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5–10 % or 3–5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely, it reduces the annual average PM2.5 by 5 % or 1.0 μg m−3 in the Southeast region.

  10. Constructing a sustainable power sector in China: current and future emissions of coal-fired power plants from 2010 to 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, D.; Zhang, Q.

    2017-12-01

    As the largest energy infrastructure in China, power sector consumed more coal than any other sector and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement target. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants in China during 2010-2030 and the evolution of associated emissions for the same period by using a unit-based emission projection model which integrated the historical power plants information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and the evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by the stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions from China's coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24% respectively during 2010-2015, comparing to 14% increase of coal consumption and 15% increase in CO2 emissions. We estimated that under current national energy development planning, coal consumption and CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will continue to increase until 2030, in which against the China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) targets. Early retirement of old and low-efficient power plants will cumulatively reduce 2.2 Pg CO2 emissions from the baseline scenario during 2016-2030, but still could not curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of "near zero" emission control policy, we projected that emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during the same period under all scenarios, indicating the decoupling trends of air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Although with limited direct emission reduction benefits, increasing operating hours of power plants could avoid 236 GW of new power plants construction, which could indirectly reduce emissions embodied in the construction activity. Our results identified a more sustainable pathway for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce air pollutant emissions, improve the energy efficiency, and slow down the construction of new units. However, continuous

  11. Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

    2017-12-01

    Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

  12. Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United

  13. Impact of a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) for ship traffic on the future air quality in the Baltic Sea region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Bieser, Johannes; Matthias, Volker; Quante, Markus; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Johansson, Lasse; Fridell, Erik

    2017-04-01

    Deposition of nitrogen compounds originating from shipping activities contribute to eutrophication of the Baltic Sea and coastal areas in the Baltic Sea region. Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from shipping on the Baltic Sea are comparable to the combined land-based emissions of NOx from Finland and Sweden and have been relatively stable over the last decade. However, expected future growth of maritime transport will result in higher fuel consumption and, if not compensated by increased transport efficiency or other measures, lead to higher total emissions of NOx from shipping. For the Baltic Sea a nitrogen emission control area (NECA) will become effective in 2021 - permitting only new built ships that are compliant with stringent Tier III emission limits - with the target of reducing NOx-emissions. In order to study the effect of implementing a Baltic Sea NECA-2021 on air quality and nitrogen deposition two future scenarios were designed; one with implementation of a NECA for the Baltic Sea starting in 2021 and another with no NECA implemented. The same increase of ship traffic was assumed for both future scenarios. Since complete fleet renewal with low NOx-emitting engines is not expected until 20-30 years after the NECA entry date, year 2040 was chosen as future scenario year. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate the current and future air quality situation. The nested simulation runs with CMAQ were performed on a horizontal resolution of 4 km × 4 km for the entire Baltic Sea region. The meteorological year 2012 was chosen for the simulation of the current and future air quality situation since the 2m-temperature and precipitation anomalies of 2012 are closely aligned to the 2004-2014 decadal average over Baltic Proper. High-resolution meteorology obtained from COSMO-CLM was used for the regional simulations. Ship emissions were generated with the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM) by the Finnish Meteorological

  14. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation: Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, C. D.; Brown, A.; DeFlorio, J.; McKenzie, E.; Tao, W.; Vimmerstedt, L.

    2013-03-01

    Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  15. Transportation Energy Futures Series. Effects of Travel Reduction and Efficient Driving on Transportation. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, C. D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Brown, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); DeFlorio, J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); McKenzie, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Tao, W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) and Cambridge Systematics, Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Since the 1970s, numerous transportation strategies have been formulated to change the behavior of drivers or travelers by reducing trips, shifting travel to more efficient modes, or improving the efficiency of existing modes. This report summarizes findings documented in existing literature to identify strategies with the greatest potential impact. The estimated effects of implementing the most significant and aggressive individual driver behavior modification strategies range from less than 1% to a few percent reduction in transportation energy use and GHG emissions. Combined strategies result in reductions of 7% to 15% by 2030. Pricing, ridesharing, eco-driving, and speed limit reduction/enforcement strategies are widely judged to have the greatest estimated potential effect, but lack the widespread public acceptance needed to accomplish maximum results. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  16. Mercury emissions from municipal solid waste combustors. An assessment of the current situation in the United States and forecast of future emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1993-05-01

    This report examines emissions of mercury (Hg) from municipal solid waste (MSW) combustion in the United States (US). It is projected that total annual nationwide MSW combustor emissions of mercury could decrease from about 97 tonnes (1989 baseline uncontrolled emissions) to less than about 4 tonnes in the year 2000. This represents approximately a 95 percent reduction in the amount of mercury emitted from combusted MSW compared to the 1989 mercury emissions baseline. The likelihood that routinely achievable mercury emissions removal efficiencies of about 80 percent or more can be assured; it is estimated that MSW combustors in the US could prove to be a comparatively minor source of mercury emissions after about 1995. This forecast assumes that diligent measures to control mercury emissions, such as via use of supplemental control technologies (e.g., carbon adsorption), are generally employed at that time. However, no present consensus was found that such emissions control measures can be implemented industry-wide in the US within this time frame. Although the availability of technology is apparently not a limiting factor, practical implementation of necessary control technology may be limited by administrative constraints and other considerations (e.g., planning, budgeting, regulatory compliance requirements, etc.). These projections assume that: (a) about 80 percent mercury emissions reduction control efficiency is achieved with air pollution control equipment likely to be employed by that time; (b) most cylinder-shaped mercury-zinc (CSMZ) batteries used in hospital applications can be prevented from being disposed into the MSW stream or are replaced with alternative batteries that do not contain mercury; and (c) either the amount of mercury used in fluorescent lamps is decreased to an industry-wide average of about 27 milligrams of mercury per lamp or extensive diversion from the MSW stream of fluorescent lamps that contain mercury is accomplished.

  17. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Simpson, David; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin D.; Landgren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to -3 % (-1.4 ppb). This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India

  18. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pommier

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030 and medium-term (2050 futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3 and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r =  0.9 and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r =  0.5 and r =  0.8 depending on the data set between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %, the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb and one in the south by a decrease up to −3 % (−1.4 ppb. This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo

  19. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  20. Beyond ‘Dieselgate’: Implications of unaccounted and future air pollutant emissions and energy use for cars in the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brand, Christian

    2016-01-01

    The ‘Dieselgate’ emissions scandal has highlighted long standing concerns that the performance gap between ‘real world’ and'official’ energy use and pollutant emissions of cars is increasing to a level that renders ‘official’ certification ratings virtually ineffective while misleading consumers and damaging human health of the wider population. This paper aims to explore the scale and timing of historic and future impacts on energy use and emissions of the UK car market. To achieve this aim it applies a bespoke disaggregated model of the transport-energy-environment system to explore the impacts of retrospective and future policy scenarios on the UK car market, trade-offs between greenhouse gas and air quality emissions, and fuel use and associated tax revenues. The results suggest that the impacts on human health of ‘real world’ excess NO X emissions in the UK are significant. Future ‘low diesel’ policies can have significant air quality benefits while showing few (if any) carbon disbenefits, suggesting future car pricing incentives may need to be rebalanced taking more account of effects of local air pollution. Car pricing incentives are however unlikely to transform the car market without additional market changes, industry push, infrastructure investment and policy pull aimed at cleaner, lower carbon vehicles. - Highlights: • Explores the recent ‘Dieselgate’ affair and potential policy responses. • Impacts on human health of ‘real world’ NOX emissions in the UK are significant. • De-dieselization can have air quality benefits while showing few carbon disbenefits. • Electrification shows largest ‘co-benefits’ but needs transformative approach. • Electrification may mean faster decline in road tax revenues.

  1. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou Xunmin, E-mail: oxm07@mails.tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Xiliang, E-mail: zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Chang Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  2. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport. Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou, Xunmin [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Xiliang; Chang, Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology. (author)

  3. Positron Emission Tomographic Imaging of the Serotonergic System and Prediction of Risk and Lethality of Future Suicidal Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oquendo, Maria A; Galfalvy, Hanga; Sullivan, Gregory M; Miller, Jeffrey M; Milak, Matthew M; Sublette, M Elizabeth; Cisneros-Trujillo, Sebastian; Burke, Ainsley K; Parsey, Ramin V; Mann, J John

    2016-10-01

    Biomarkers that predict suicidal behavior, especially highly lethal behavior, are urgently needed. In cross-sectional studies, individuals with depression who attempt suicide have lower midbrain serotonin transporter binding potential compared with those who do not attempt suicide, and higher serotonin1A binding potential in the raphe nuclei (RN) is associated with greater lethality of past suicide attempts and suicidal intent and ideation. To determine whether serotonin transporter binding potential in the lower midbrain predicts future suicide attempts and whether higher RN serotonin1A binding potential predicts future suicidal ideation and intent and lethality of future suicide attempts. In this prospective 2-year observational study, a well-characterized cohort of 100 patients presenting for treatment of a major depressive episode of at least moderate severity underwent positron emission tomography using carbon 11-labeled N-(2-(1-(4-(2-methoxyphenyl)-1-piperazinyl)ethyl))-N-(2-pyridyl)-cyclohexanecarboxamide ([11C]WAY-100635), a serotonin1A antagonist; a subset of 50 patients also underwent imaging with carbon 11-labeled 3-amino-4-(2-dimethylaminomethyl-phenylsulfanyl)- benzonitrile ([11C]DASB), a serotonin transporter radioligand. Imaging was performed at Columbia University Medical Center from May 3, 1999, to March 11, 2008. Follow-up was completed on May 28, 2010, and data were analyzed from August 1, 2013, to March 1, 2016. Patients were treated naturalistically in the community and followed up for 2 years with documentation of suicidal behavior, its lethality, and suicidal ideation and intent. Suicide attempt or suicide. Of the 100 patients undergoing follow-up for more than 2 years (39 men; 61 women; mean [SD] age, 40.2 [11.2] years), 15 made suicide attempts, including 2 who died by suicide. Higher RN serotonin1A binding potential predicted more suicidal ideation at 3 (b = 0.02; t = 3.45; P = .001) and 12 (b = 0.02; t = 3.63; P

  4. Study of the discovery potential for hidden photon emission at future electron scattering fixed-target experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beranek, T.; Vanderhaeghen, M.

    2014-03-01

    Recently, electron scattering fixed-target experiments came into focus to search for U(1) extensions of the Standard Model of particle physics at low energies. These extensions are motivated from anomalies in astrophysical observations as well as from deviations from Standard Model predictions, such as the discrepancy between the experimental and theoretical determinations of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. In such U(1) extensions, a new, light messenger particle γ', the hidden photon, couples to the hidden sector as well as to the electromagnetic current of the Standard Model by kinetic mixing, which allows for a search for this particle, e.g., in the invariant mass distribution of the process e(A ,Z)→e(A,Z)l+l-. In this process the hidden photon is emitted by bremsstrahlung and decays into a pair of Standard Model leptons. In this work we study the applicability of the Weizsäcker-Williams approximation to calculate the signal cross section of the process, which is widely used to design such experimental setups. Furthermore, we study the influence of the contribution from doubly virtual Compton scattering on experiments performed with proton targets. Based on a previous work, we investigate the discovery potential of future experimental setups at the Jefferson Lab and obtain a projected exclusion limit. We find that doubly virtual Compton scattering causes a 10% effect on the cross section for the kinematics of a planned experiment and therefore does not alter the obtained experimental reach significantly. In addition, we find that the Weizsäcker-Williams approximation can be applied to calculate the underlying cross sections in the kinematic range of most of the present and upcoming experiments, provided that the dependence on the energy and emission angle of the hidden photon is accounted for.

  5. Estimating U.S. Methane Emissions from the Natural Gas Supply Chain. Approaches, Uncertainties, Current Estimates, and Future Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heath, Garvin [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Warner, Ethan [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [Joint Inst. for Strategic Energy Analysis, Golden, CO (United States); Brandt, Adam [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2015-08-01

    A growing number of studies have raised questions regarding uncertainties in our understanding of methane (CH4) emissions from fugitives and venting along the natural gas (NG) supply chain. In particular, a number of measurement studies have suggested that actual levels of CH4 emissions may be higher than estimated by EPA" tm s U.S. GHG Emission Inventory. We reviewed the literature to identify the growing number of studies that have raised questions regarding uncertainties in our understanding of methane (CH4) emissions from fugitives and venting along the natural gas (NG) supply chain.

  6. Possible future petroleum activity around Jan Mayen. Consequences of emissions to air.; Aapning av havomraadene ved Jan Mayen for petroleumsvirksomhet. Konsekvenser av regulaere utslipp til luft.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solberg, Sverre; Svendby, Tove; Gjerstad, Karl Idar; Liu, Li; Wathne, Bente M.; Skjelkvaale, Brit Lisa; Hoegaasen, Tore; Aarrestad, Per Arild; Gjershaug, Jan Ove

    2012-07-01

    Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) and the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) have considered the effects on the environment of emissions of NO{sub x}, SO{sub 2} and particulate matter into the air from any future petroleum activity in the waters around Jan Mayen. It is estimated deposition of nitrogen, sulfur and particulates - also formation of ozone is calculated. It is also considered what effect it has on nature. Calculations indicate that emissions most likely will not lead to negative effects on vegetation and fauna of the terrestrial impact area. (Author)

  7. Volatility spillovers and causality of carbon emissions, oil and coal spot and futures for the EU and USA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Zuo, G. (Guangdong)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractRecent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest

  8. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

    2018-01-30

    This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

  9. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Ward, Jacob [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Joseck, Fred [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Gohlke, David [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States; Lindauer, Alicia [United States Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. 20585, United States; Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado 80401, United States; Alexander, Mark [Electric Power Research Institute, Palo; Barnhart, Steven [FCA US LLC, Auburn Hills, Michigan 48326, United States; Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Pontiac, Michigan 48340, United States; Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, Richmond, California 94802, United States; Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121, United States

    2018-01-30

    This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025–2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ~450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300–350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ~350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ~250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25–$1.00/mi depending on timeframe and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60–90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

  10. Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Mark; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J

    2018-02-20

    This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO 2 e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H 2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO 2 e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO 2 /mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO 2e /mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

  11. Uncertainty in the Future Distribution of Tropospheric Ozone over West Africa due to Variability in Anthropogenic Emissions Estimates between 2025 and 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Particle and trace gas emissions due to anthropogenic activity are expected to increase significantly in West Africa over the next few decades due to rising population and more energy intensive lifestyles. Here we perform 3D global chemistry-transport model calculations for 2025 and 2050 using both a “business-as-usual” (A1B and “clean economy” (B1 future anthropogenic emission scenario to focus on the changes in the distribution and uncertainties associated with tropospheric O3 due to the various projected emission scenarios. When compared to the present-day troposphere we find that there are significant increases in tropospheric O3 for the A1B emission scenario, with the largest increases being located in the lower troposphere near the source regions and into the Sahel around 15–20°N. In part this increase is due to more efficient NOx re-cycling related to increases in the background methane concentrations. Examining the uncertainty across different emission inventories reveals that there is an associated uncertainty of up to ~20% in the predicted increases at 2025 and 2050. For the upper troposphere, where increases in O3 have a more pronounced impact on radiative forcing, the uncertainty is influenced by transport of O3 rich air from Asia on the Tropical Easterly Jet.

  12. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emission and energy use of bioethanol produced from corn stover in China: Current perspectives and future prospectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Lili; Ou, Xunmin; Chang, Shiyan

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a life cycle analysis (LCA) of bioethanol production from corn stover is carried out under Chinese context. Three scenarios were developed and assessed based on current and future technology levels of the ethanol conversion process. Well-to-pump (WTP) and well-to-wheels (WTW) results are presented in this paper via functional units of 1 MJ of ethanol produced, 1 MJ of E100 produced and used, and 1 km of distance driven by a light-duty vehicle on E10 fuel, respectively. It was calculated that for 1 MJ of E100, the WTW Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction relative to gasoline reaches 52%–55%, and the savings of fossil fuel and petroleum fuel reach 72%–76% and 74%–85%, respectively. For 1 MJ of ethanol produced, GHG emissions occurred in ethanol conversion process account for 51%–55%, and the contribution of chemical inputs reaches 36%–37% of the total life cycle GHG emissions. Furthermore, the life cycle results were found to be highly sensitive to allocation methods. - Highlights: • The study is focused on 2 G bioethanol derived from corn stover in Chinese context. • LCA is based on both current and future technology levels for ethanol conversion. • The life cycle GHG emission reduction of E100 relative to gasoline reaches 52%–55%. • Contributions of chemicals account for 36%–37% of life cycle GHG emissions. • E100 saves 74%–85% of petroleum fuel during its life cycle production and use.

  13. Nuclear power can reduce emissions and maintain a strong economy: Rating Australia’s optimal future electricity-generation mix by technologies and policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear power is essential for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions at lower cost. • Physical and economic limits of renewables at high penetrations hamper their growth. • Large-scale fossil fuels are required if nuclear power is not permitted in Australia. • Well-balanced information is a prerequisite for defining an optimal future mix. - Abstract: Legal barriers currently prohibit nuclear power for electricity generation in Australia. For this reason, published future electricity scenarios aimed at policy makers for this country have not seriously considered a full mix of energy options. Here we addressed this deficiency by comparing the life-cycle sustainability of published scenarios using multi-criteria decision-making analysis, and modeling the optimized future electricity mix using a genetic algorithm. The published ‘CSIRO e-future’ scenario under its default condition (excluding nuclear) has the largest aggregate negative environmental and economic outcomes (score = 4.51 out of 8), followed by the Australian Energy Market Operator’s 100% renewable energy scenario (4.16) and the Greenpeace scenario (3.97). The e-future projection with maximum nuclear-power penetration allowed yields the lowest negative impacts (1.46). After modeling possible future electricity mixes including or excluding nuclear power, the weighted criteria recommended an optimized scenario mix where nuclear power generated >40% of total electricity. The life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions of the optimization scenarios including nuclear power were <27 kg CO 2 -e MW h −1 in 2050, which achieves the IPCC’s target of 50–150 kg CO 2 -e MW h −1 . Our analyses demonstrate clearly that nuclear power is an effective and logical option for the environmental and economic sustainability of a future electricity network in Australia

  14. The present-day and future impact of NOx emissions from subsonic aircraft on the atmosphere in relation to the impact of NOx surface sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. M. Velders

    Full Text Available The effect of present-day and future NOx emissions from aircraft on the NOx and ozone concentrations in the atmosphere and the corresponding radiative forcing were studied using a three-dimensional chemistry transport model (CTM and a radiative model. The effects of the aircraft emissions were compared with the effects of the three most important anthropogenic NOx surface sources: road traffic, electricity generation and industrial combustion. From the model results, NOx emissions from aircraft are seen to cause an increase in the NOx and ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and a positive radiative forcing. For the reference year 1990, the aircraft emissions result in an increase in the NOx concentration at 250 hPa of about 20 ppt in January and 50 ppt in July over the eastern USA, the North Atlantic Flight Corridor and Western Europe, corresponding to a relative increase of about 50%. The maximum increase in the ozone concentrations due to the aircraft emissions is about 3-4 ppb in July over the northern mid-latitudes, corresponding to a relative increase of about 3-4%. The aircraft-induced ozone changes cause a global average radiative forcing of 0.025 W/m2 in July. According to the ANCAT projection for the year 2015, the aircraft NOx emissions in that year will be 90% higher than in the year 1990. As a consequence of this, the calculated NOx perturbation by aircraft emissions increases by about 90% between 1990 and 2015, and the ozone perturbation by about 50-70%. The global average radiative forcing due to the aircraft-induced ozone changes increases by about 50% between 1990 and 2015. In the year 2015, the effects of the aircraft emissions on the ozone burden and radiative forcing are clearly larger than the individual effects of the NOx surface sources. Taking chemical conversion in the aircraft plume into account in the CTM explicitly, by means of modified aircraft NOx emissions, a significant reduction

  15. The present-day and future impact of NOx emissions from subsonic aircraft on the atmosphere in relation to the impact of NOx surface sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. M. Valks

    1999-08-01

    Full Text Available The effect of present-day and future NOx emissions from aircraft on the NOx and ozone concentrations in the atmosphere and the corresponding radiative forcing were studied using a three-dimensional chemistry transport model (CTM and a radiative model. The effects of the aircraft emissions were compared with the effects of the three most important anthropogenic NOx surface sources: road traffic, electricity generation and industrial combustion. From the model results, NOx emissions from aircraft are seen to cause an increase in the NOx and ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and a positive radiative forcing. For the reference year 1990, the aircraft emissions result in an increase in the NOx concentration at 250 hPa of about 20 ppt in January and 50 ppt in July over the eastern USA, the North Atlantic Flight Corridor and Western Europe, corresponding to a relative increase of about 50%. The maximum increase in the ozone concentrations due to the aircraft emissions is about 3-4 ppb in July over the northern mid-latitudes, corresponding to a relative increase of about 3-4%. The aircraft-induced ozone changes cause a global average radiative forcing of 0.025 W/m2 in July. According to the ANCAT projection for the year 2015, the aircraft NOx emissions in that year will be 90% higher than in the year 1990. As a consequence of this, the calculated NOx perturbation by aircraft emissions increases by about 90% between 1990 and 2015, and the ozone perturbation by about 50-70%. The global average radiative forcing due to the aircraft-induced ozone changes increases by about 50% between 1990 and 2015. In the year 2015, the effects of the aircraft emissions on the ozone burden and radiative forcing are clearly larger than the individual effects of the NOx surface sources. Taking chemical conversion in the aircraft plume into account in the CTM explicitly, by means of modified aircraft NOx emissions, a significant reduction

  16. Top-down model estimates, bottom-up inventories, and future projections of global natural and anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, E. A.; Kanter, D.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most abundantly emitted greenhouse gas and the largest remaining emitted ozone depleting substance. It is a product of nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria in soils, sediments and water bodies. Humans began to disrupt the N cycle in the preindustrial era as they expanded agricultural land, used fire for land clearing and management, and cultivated leguminous crops that carry out biological N fixation. This disruption accelerated after the industrial revolution, especially as the use of synthetic N fertilizers became common after 1950. Here we present findings from a new United Nations Environment Programme report, in which we constrain estimates of the anthropogenic and natural emissions of N2O and consider scenarios for future emissions. Inventory-based estimates of natural emissions from terrestrial, marine and atmospheric sources range from 10 to 12 Tg N2O-N/yr. Similar values can be derived for global N2O emissions that were predominantly natural before the industrial revolution. While there was inter-decadal variability, there was little or no consistent trend in atmospheric N2O concentrations between 1730 and 1850, allowing us to assume near steady state. Assuming an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years, the 'top-down' estimate of pre-industrial emissions of 11 Tg N2O-N/yr is consistent with the bottom-up inventories for natural emissions, although the former includes some modest pre-industrial anthropogenic effects (probably business-as-usual scenarios over the period 2013-2050 is ~102 Tg N2O-N; equivalent to ~48 Gt CO2e or ~2730 kt ozone depleting potential. The impact of growing demand for biofuels is highly uncertain, ranging from trivial to the most significant N2O source to date, depending on the types of plants, their nutrient management, the amount of land used for their cultivation, and the fates of their waste products.

  17. Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Geels

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

  18. Tuning extreme ultraviolet emission for optimum coupling with multilayer mirrors for future lithography through control of ionic charge states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohashi, Hayato, E-mail: ohashi@cc.utsunomiya-u.ac.jp; Higashiguchi, Takeshi, E-mail: higashi@cc.utsunomiya-u.ac.jp; Suzuki, Yuhei; Kawasaki, Masato [Department of Advanced Interdisciplinary Sciences, Center for Optical Research and Education (CORE), Utsunomiya University, Yoto 7-1-2, Utsunomiya, Tochigi 321-8585 (Japan); Li, Bowen; Dunne, Padraig; O' Sullivan, Gerry [School of Physics, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4 (Ireland); Kanehara, Tatsuhiko; Aida, Yuya; Nakamura, Nobuyuki [Institute for Laser Science, The University of Electro-Communications, Chofu, Tokyo 182-8585 (Japan); Torii, Shuichi; Makimura, Tetsuya [Institute of Applied Physics, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8573 (Japan); Jiang, Weihua [Department of Electrical Engineering, Nagaoka University of Technology, Kami-tomiokamachi 1603-1, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan)

    2014-01-21

    We report on the identification of the optimum plasma conditions for a laser-produced plasma source for efficient coupling with multilayer mirrors at 6.x nm for beyond extreme ultraviolet lithography. A small shift to lower energies of the peak emission for Nd:YAG laser-produced gadolinium plasmas was observed with increasing laser power density. Charge-defined emission spectra were observed in electron beam ion trap (EBIT) studies and the charge states responsible identified by use of the flexible atomic code (FAC). The EBIT spectra displayed a larger systematic shift of the peak wavelength of intense emission at 6.x nm to longer wavelengths with increasing ionic charge. This combination of spectra enabled the key ion stage to be confirmed as Gd{sup 18+}, over a range of laser power densities, with contributions from Gd{sup 17+} and Gd{sup 19+} responsible for the slight shift to longer wavelengths in the laser-plasma spectra. The FAC calculation also identified the origin of observed out-of-band emission and the charge states responsible.

  19. The future of airborne sulfur-containing particles in the absence of fossil fuel sulfur dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perraud, Véronique; Horne, Jeremy R; Martinez, Andrew S; Kalinowski, Jaroslaw; Meinardi, Simone; Dawson, Matthew L; Wingen, Lisa M; Dabdub, Donald; Blake, Donald R; Gerber, R Benny; Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J

    2015-11-03

    Sulfuric acid (H2SO4), formed from oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emitted during fossil fuel combustion, is a major precursor of new airborne particles, which have well-documented detrimental effects on health, air quality, and climate. Another precursor is methanesulfonic acid (MSA), produced simultaneously with SO2 during the atmospheric oxidation of organosulfur compounds (OSCs), such as dimethyl sulfide. In the present work, a multidisciplinary approach is used to examine how contributions of H2SO4 and MSA to particle formation will change in a large coastal urban area as anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions of SO2 decline. The 3-dimensional University of California Irvine-California Institute of Technology airshed model is used to compare atmospheric concentrations of gas phase MSA, H2SO4, and SO2 under current emissions of fossil fuel-associated SO2 and a best-case futuristic scenario with zero fossil fuel sulfur emissions. Model additions include results from (i) quantum chemical calculations that clarify the previously uncertain gas phase mechanism of formation of MSA and (ii) a combination of published and experimental estimates of OSC emissions, such as those from marine, agricultural, and urban processes, which include pet waste and human breath. Results show that in the zero anthropogenic SO2 emissions case, particle formation potential from H2SO4 will drop by about two orders of magnitude compared with the current situation. However, particles will continue to be generated from the oxidation of natural and anthropogenic sources of OSCs, with contributions from MSA and H2SO4 of a similar order of magnitude. This could be particularly important in agricultural areas where there are significant sources of OSCs.

  20. The future of fully automated vehicles : opportunities for vehicle- and ride-sharing, with cost and emissions savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Fully automated or autonomous vehicles (AVs) hold great promise for the future of transportation. By 2020 : Google, auto manufacturers and other technology providers intend to introduce self-driving cars to the public with : either limited or fully a...

  1. Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Kooten, G Cornelis; Duan, Jun; Lynch, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%.

  2. Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Jun; Lynch, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%. PMID:27902712

  3. Kvalitet budućih ulja za motore niskih emisija / Future lubricants quality for low emission engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radinko Gligorijević

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available U tekućoj dekadi ovog milenijima proizvođači motora moraju postići dvostruko smanjenje potrošnje goriva, pa time i emisije CO2 i desetostruko smanjenje nivoa emisija, pre svega NOX i čestica. Za dostizanje tog cilja moraju se razviti nove specifikacije ulja, čiji doprinos smanjenju potrošnje goriva i nivou štetnih emisija postaje sve važniji. Trend razvoja ulja kreće se u pravcu nižih viskoznih gradacija sa nižim sadržajem sumpora, fosfora, sulfatnog pepela i nižom isparljivošću, čime se postiže smanjenje emisije, kao i potrošnje goriva. / In the current decade of this millennium automobile manufacturers must achieve an additional twofold increase in fuel efficiency and a tenfold reduction of emission of CO2 and pollutants, especially NOX and particles. To achieve this goal, a new specification of engine lubricants, whose contribution to fuel efficiency and reduction of emissions cannot be neglected, is to be developed. Development trends in lubricants move towards low viscosity, low content of sulfur, phosphorus, sulfate ash and low volatility, resulting in emission reduction and increase of fuel efficiency.

  4. Global market integration increases likelihood that a future African Green Revolution could increase crop land use and CO2 emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W; Ramankutty, Navin; Baldos, Uris Lantz C

    2014-09-23

    There has been a resurgence of interest in the impacts of agricultural productivity on land use and the environment. At the center of this debate is the assertion that agricultural innovation is land sparing. However, numerous case studies and global empirical studies have found little evidence of higher yields being accompanied by reduced area. We find that these studies overlook two crucial factors: estimation of a true counterfactual scenario and a tendency to adopt a regional, rather than a global, perspective. This paper introduces a general framework for analyzing the impacts of regional and global innovation on long run crop output, prices, land rents, land use, and associated CO2 emissions. In so doing, it facilitates a reconciliation of the apparently conflicting views of the impacts of agricultural productivity growth on global land use and environmental quality. Our historical analysis demonstrates that the Green Revolution in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East was unambiguously land and emissions sparing, compared with a counterfactual world without these innovations. In contrast, we find that the environmental impacts of a prospective African Green Revolution are potentially ambiguous. We trace these divergent outcomes to relative differences between the innovating region and the rest of the world in yields, emissions efficiencies, cropland supply response, and intensification potential. Globalization of agriculture raises the potential for adverse environmental consequences. However, if sustained for several decades, an African Green Revolution will eventually become land sparing.

  5. Primary energy demand in Japan: an empirical analysis of long-term trends and future CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunt, L.C.; Ninomiya, Yasushi

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the long-run relationship between energy demand, GNP and the real energy price in Japan using data covering 1887-2001. It is found that, if an Underlying Energy Demand Trend is appropriately incorporated, the resulting econometric model produces a long-run income elasticity of about unity and a long-run price elasticity of about-0.2. The estimated model is utilised to forecast energy consumption and CO 2 emissions up to 2012. It is shown that given current economic conditions and policies there is considerable uncertainty about whether Japan will be able to meet its Kyoto target by reducing CO 2 emissions in 2008-2012 to the 1990 level. It is shown that this uncertainty depends on the strength of the economy and leaves the Japanese government with a difficult policy dilemma. If there is a resurgence in growth to something near the annual average growth rate since the early 1980s a considerable effort will be required in order to meet its Kyoto target; requiring not only using the Kyoto Mechanisms, but also additional tougher domestic policies and measures such as emissions capping, R and D incentives, and education for energy conservation in addition to a pricing and tax policy

  6. High-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy with transition-edge sensors: present performance and future potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uhlig, J.; Doriese, W. B.; Fowler, J. W.; Swetz, D. S.; Jaye, C.; Fischer, D. A.; Reintsema, C. D.; Bennett, D. A.; Vale, L. R.; Mandal, U.; O' Neil, G. C.; Miaja-Avila, L.; Joe, Y. I.; El Nahhas, A.; Fullagar, W.; Parnefjord Gustafsson, F.; Sundström, V.; Kurunthu, D.; Hilton, G. C.; Schmidt, D. R.; Ullom, J. N.

    2015-04-21

    X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) is a powerful element-selective tool to analyze the oxidation states of atoms in complex compounds, determine their electronic configuration, and identify unknown compounds in challenging environments. Until now the low efficiency of wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectrometer technology has limited the use of XES, especially in combination with weaker laboratory X-ray sources. More efficient energy-dispersive detectors have either insufficient energy resolution because of the statistical limits described by Fano or too low counting rates to be of practical use. This paper updates an approach to high-resolution X-ray emission spectroscopy that uses a microcalorimeter detector array of superconducting transition-edge sensors (TESs). TES arrays are discussed and compared with conventional methods, and shown under which circumstances they are superior. It is also shown that a TES array can be integrated into a table-top time-resolved X-ray source and a soft X-ray synchrotron beamline to perform emission spectroscopy with good chemical sensitivity over a very wide range of energies.

  7. Impact of future climate policy scenarios on air quality and aerosol-cloud interactions using an advanced version of CESM/CAM5: Part II. Future trend analysis and impacts of projected anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Following a comprehensive evaluation of the Community Earth System Model modified at the North Carolina State University (CESM-NCSU), Part II describes the projected changes in the future state of the atmosphere under the representative concentration partway scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) by 2100 for the 2050 time frame and examine the impact of climate change on future air quality under both scenarios, and the impact of projected emission changes under the RCP4.5 scenario on future climate through aerosol direct and indirect effects. Both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations predict similar changes in air quality by the 2050 period due to declining emissions under both scenarios. The largest differences occur in O3, which decreases by global mean of 1.4 ppb under RCP4.5 but increases by global mean of 2.3 ppb under RCP8.5 due to differences in methane levels, and PM10, which decreases by global mean of 1.2 μg m-3 under RCP4.5 and increases by global mean of 0.2 μg m-3 under RCP8.5 due to differences in dust and sea-salt emissions under both scenarios. Enhancements in cloud formation in the Arctic and Southern Ocean and increases of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in central Africa and South Asia dominate the change in surface radiation in both scenarios, leading to global average dimming of 1.1 W m-2 and 2.0 W m-2 in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Declines in AOD, cloud formation, and cloud optical thickness from reductions of emissions of primary aerosols and aerosol precursors under RCP4.5 result in near surface warming of 0.2 °C from a global average increase of 0.7 W m-2 in surface downwelling solar radiation. This warming leads to a weakening of the Walker Circulation in the tropics, leading to significant changes in cloud and precipitation that mirror a shift in climate towards the negative phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  8. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction.

  9. Electric Vehicle Market Penetration and Impacts on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in the Future: Beijing Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Zhang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the development of electric vehicles (EV in the private passenger vehicle fleet in Beijing (China, analyzes how EVs will penetrate in the market, and estimates the resulting impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emissions up to 2030. A discrete choice model is adopted with consideration of variables including vehicle technical characteristics, fuel prices, charging conditions and support policies. Results show that by 2030, without technological breakthrough and support policies, the market share of EV will be less than 7%, with gasoline dominating the energy structure. With fast technological progress, charging facility establishment, subsidies and tax breaks, EVs will account for 70% of annual new vehicle sales and nearly half of the vehicle stock by 2030, resulting in the substitution of nearly 1 million tons of gasoline with 3.2 billion kWh electricity in 2030 and the reduction of 0.6 million tons of CO2 emission in 2030. Technological progress, charging conditions and fuel prices are the top three drivers. Subsidies play an important role in the early stage, while tax and supply-side policies can be good options as long-term incentives.

  10. Sustainable diets for the future: Can we contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by eating a healthy diet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdiarmid, Jennie I; Kyle, Janet; Horgan, Graham W; Loe, Jennifer; Fyfe, Claire; Johnstone, Alexandra; McNeill, Geraldine

    2012-09-01

    Food systems account for 18-20% of UK annual greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs). Recommendations for improving food choices to reduce GHGEs must be balanced against dietary requirements for health. We assessed whether a reduction in GHGEs can be achieved while meeting dietary requirements for health. A database was created that linked nutrient composition and GHGE data for 82 food groups. Linear programming was used iteratively to produce a diet that met the dietary requirements of an adult woman (19-50 y old) while minimizing GHGEs. Acceptability constraints were added to the model to include foods commonly consumed in the United Kingdom in sensible quantities. A sample menu was created to ensure that the quantities and types of food generated from the model could be combined into a realistic 7-d diet. Reductions in GHGEs of the diets were set against 1990 emission values. The first model, without any acceptability constraints, produced a 90% reduction in GHGEs but included only 7 food items, all in unrealistic quantities. The addition of acceptability constraints gave a more realistic diet with 52 foods but reduced GHGEs by a lesser amount of 36%. This diet included meat products but in smaller amounts than in the current diet. The retail cost of the diet was comparable to the average UK expenditure on food. A sustainable diet that meets dietary requirements for health with lower GHGEs can be achieved without eliminating meat or dairy products or increasing the cost to the consumer.

  11. Mitigation of emissions from wildfires in Australia: potential for use of managed prescribed fire in eucalypt dominated vegetation, present and future. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradstock, R.; Price, O.; Williams, D.; Hutley, L.

    2010-12-01

    under contemporary management, fuel consumption and the volume of emissions may increase with increasing rates of prescribed burning. This has further implications for carbon storage in these forests. In eucalypt forests, current losses of carbon in wildfires appear to be offset by storage during the interval between wildfires. Future increases in the rate of intense wildfires as a result of climate change, have the potential to adversely disrupt this balance and pose a challenge to management. The ideal mix of management measures (i.e. prevention and suppression) required to counter the possibility of a degradation of significant carbon storage in Australian forests is yet to be resolved and will require a better understanding of how differing fuel treatment and suppression options can perform to best effect. By contrast the scope for management of emissions from fires in savanna woodlands is high, though their low potential for storage of carbon is also vulnerable to degradation by wildfires in the future.

  12. Particulate matters emitted from maize straw burning for winter heating in rural areas in Guanzhong Plain, China: Current emission and future reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jian; Shen, Zhenxing; Cao, Junji; Zhang, Leiming; Wu, Tingting; Zhang, Qian; Yin, Xiuli; Lei, Yali; Huang, Yu; Huang, R.-J.; Liu, Suixin; Han, Yongming; Xu, Hongmei; Zheng, Chunli; Liu, Pingping

    2017-02-01

    Maize straw smoldering in "Heated Kang" is the traditional way for heating in winter in rural areas of Guanzhong Plain. This smolder procedure produced large quantities of pollutants and got more and more concern from both public and researchers. In this study, on-site measurements of straw smoldering in a residence with a Chinese 'Heated Kang' (Scenario 1) were done to determine the emissions factors (EFs) for pollutants. Moreover, EFs of pollutants from an advanced stove fired with maize straw (Scenario 2) and maize-straw pellet (Scenario 3) had been conducted in a laboratory to find the new measure to reduce the pollution emissions. The results showed that the EFs of PM2.5 for three scenarios were 38.26 ± 13.94 g·kg- 1, 17.50 ± 8.29 g·kg- 1 and 2.95 ± 0.71 g·kg- 1, respectively. Comparing EFs of pollutants from 3 scenarios indicates that both briquetting of straw and advanced stove with air distribution system could efficiently reduce pollutants emission especially for Scenario 3. In detail, EFs of PM2.5, OC, EC and water soluble ions all have over 90% reduction between Scenarios 1 and 3. All particle-size distributions were unimodal, and all peaked in particle sizes size groups. Converting to pellets and advanced stoves for residential heating could reduce PM2.5 emission from 48.3 Gg to 3.59 Gg, OC from 19.0 Gg to 0.91 Gg, EC from 1.7 Gg to 0.17 Gg and over 90% reduction on total water soluble ions in the whole region. A box model simulation for the Guanzhong Plain indicated that this conversion would lead to a 7.7% reduction in PM2.5 (from 130 to 120 μg·m- 3) in normal conditions and a 14.2% reduction (from 350 to 300 μg·m- 3) in hazy conditions. The results highlighted that the straw pellets burning in advanced stove can effectively reduce pollutants emitted and improve the energy use efficiency in comparison with maize straw smoldering in "Heated Kang". The study supplies an effective measure to reduce the rural biomass burning emission, and this

  13. Radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas emission and sink histories in Finland and its future control potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1995-12-31

    The effective atmospheric lifetimes of the greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}),nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O) and many of the CFCs are of the order of 100 years. Human activities, as an example GDP, very often change at rates of a few per cents per year,corresponding time constants of some tens of years. Also the forest ecosystems have time constants of this order. Even the human population of the globe is increasing by about two percent per year. Because so many natural and human-linked processes, which are relevant to global warming, have slow change rates of about same order, a time-dependent consideration of the greenhouse warming and its control can give useful information for the understanding of the problem. The objective of the work is to study the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks in Finland and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of radiative forcing which describes the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. The idea behind the calculations is that Finland should in some way steer its share of the global radiative forcing and greenhouse effect. This presentation describes the calculation model REFUGE and the projects in which it has been used

  14. Delayed light emission of Tetraphenyl-butadiene excited by liquid argon scintillation light. Current status and future plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segreto, E.; Machado, A. A.; Araujo, W.; Teixeira, V.

    2016-02-01

    Tetraphenyl-butadiene is the wavelength shifter most widely used in combination with liquid argon. The latter emits scintillation photons with a wavelength of 127 nm that need to be downshifted to be detected by photomultipliers with glass or quartz windows. Tetraphenyl-butadiene has been demonstrated to have an extremely high conversion efficiency, possibly higher than 100% for 127 nm photons, while there is no precise information about the time dependence of its emission. It is usually assumed to be exponentially decaying with a characteristic time of the order of one ns, as an extrapolation from measurements with exciting radiation in the near UV . This work shows that tetraphenyl-butadiene, when excited by 127 nm photons, re-emits photons not only with a very short decay time, but also with slower ones due to triplet states de-excitations. This fact can strongly contribute to clarifying the anomalies in liquid-argon scintillation light reported in the literature since the 1970s. Precision measurements of the properties of TPB, when excited by Vacuum Ultra Violet photons are being carried on at the Brazilian Synchrotron Light Laboratory in Campinas (State of São Paulo).

  15. The PolicyRelevance of WearEmissions fromRoad Transport,Nowand in the Future-An InternationalWorkshop Report and Consensus Statement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Gerlofs-Nijland, M.E.; Gehrig, R.; Gustafsson, M.; Janssen, N.; Harrison, R.M.; Hulskotte, J.; Johansson, C.; Jozwicka, M.; Keuken, M.; Krijgsheld, K.; Ntziachristos, L.; Riediker, M.; Cassee, F.R.

    2013-01-01

    Road transport emissions are a major contributor to ambient particulate matter concentrations and have been associated with adverse health effects. Therefore, these emissions are targeted through increasingly stringent European emission standards. These policies succeed in reducing exhaust

  16. Assessing the impact of energy saving measures on the future energy demand and related GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction of Croatia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pukšec, Tomislav; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Novosel, Tomislav

    2014-01-01

    In the light of European energy-climate package and its measures for increasing security of supply, decreasing the impact on environment and stimulating sustainability, Croatia as a new EU (European Union) member state needs to reconsider and develop new energy policy towards energy efficiency...... and renewable energy sources. Croatian long-term energy demand and its effect on the future national GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions are analysed in this paper. For that purpose the NeD model was constructed (National energy demand model). The model is comprised out of six modules, each representing one sector......: industry, transport, households, services, agriculture and construction. The model is based on bottom up approach. The analysis has shown that energy policy measures, identified through this paper, can potentially achieve energy savings up to 157PJ in the year 2050, which presents a 40% decrease...

  17. Opportunity for offshore wind to reduce future demand for coal-fired power plants in China with consequent savings in emissions of CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xi; McElroy, Michael B; Chen, Xinyu; Kang, Chongqing

    2014-12-16

    Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a nondispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.

  18. Land use efficiency: anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Brett A; Crossman, Neville D; Nolan, Martin; Li, Jing; Navarro, Javier; Connor, Jeffery D

    2015-11-01

    Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and biodiversity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and biodiversity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Using learning curves on energy-efficient technologies to estimate future energy savings and emission reduction potentials in the U.S. iron and steel industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karali, Nihan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Park, Won Young [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McNeil, Michael A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-06-18

    Increasing concerns on non-sustainable energy use and climate change spur a growing research interest in energy efficiency potentials in various critical areas such as industrial production. This paper focuses on learning curve aspects of energy efficiency measures in the U.S iron and steel sector. A number of early-stage efficient technologies (i.e., emerging or demonstration technologies) are technically feasible and have the potential to make a significant contribution to energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction, but fall short economically to be included. However, they may also have the cost effective potential for significant cost reduction and/or performance improvement in the future under learning effects such as ‘learning-by-doing’. The investigation is carried out using ISEEM, a technology oriented, linear optimization model. We investigated how steel demand is balanced with/without the availability learning curve, compared to a Reference scenario. The retrofit (or investment in some cases) costs of energy efficient technologies decline in the scenario where learning curve is applied. The analysis also addresses market penetration of energy efficient technologies, energy saving, and CO2 emissions in the U.S. iron and steel sector with/without learning impact. Accordingly, the study helps those who use energy models better manage the price barriers preventing unrealistic diffusion of energy-efficiency technologies, better understand the market and learning system involved, predict future achievable learning rates more accurately, and project future savings via energy-efficiency technologies with presence of learning. We conclude from our analysis that, most of the existing energy efficiency technologies that are currently used in the U.S. iron and steel sector are cost effective. Penetration levels increases through the years, even though there is no price reduction. However, demonstration technologies are not economically

  20. What is the fast track to future energy systems with lower CO2 emissions? Main findings and recommendations from Workshop on Future Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, 19 - 20 November 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soenderberg Petersen, L.; Larsen, Hans (eds.)

    2009-04-15

    As part of the DTU Climate Change Technologies programme, DTU arranges a series of workshops and conferences on climate change technology focusing on assessment of and adaptation to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses (GHG). Each workshop target a specific problem area. This workshop focuses on the challenges for the future energy system from a Danish perspective as well as world wide with regard to both technology needs and policy measures with particular focus on identifying a fast track to energy systems with lower CO{sub 2} emissions. In the coming years, energy systems will be changed to consist of a combination of central units and smaller decentralized units - to a large extent based on renewable energy. At the same time there will be close links between the supply of energy and the individual end user of energy. These links will be based on extensive use of information and communication technology. This will allow end users to respond adequately to price signals and use the electricity for loading electric cars, laundry etc. while the electricity prices are low due to for example surplus of wind generated electricity. The workshop assessed the perspectives for a rapid development of energy systems with more renewable energy in order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions. Furthermore, the workshop gives recommendations for the implementation of such energy systems. The recommendations are targeted at the research community, industry and public authorities. The recommendations include opportunities for synergy between the research community, the government and the energy industry as well as public authorities. This report presents summary and recommendations from the workshop. (au)

  1. Volatile emissions from Cascade cinder cone eruptions: Implications for future hazard assessments in the Central and Southern Cascades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, L. K.; Wallace, P. J.; Cashman, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    the Central Oregon Cascades are (averages from each cone): 700-1190 ppm S; 480-1115 ppm Cl; 120-280 ppm F; and for Northern California: 620-1100 ppm S; 305-445 ppm Cl; 130-240 ppm F. Maximum values for the two regions are 1610 ppm S, 1490 ppm Cl, and 440 ppm F. The majority of studies on health hazards from inhalation or ingestion of volcanic aerosols are centered on livestock; therefore not much is known of the effects on humans. This emphasizes the importance of such a study in a volcanically active region. Levels of volcanic aerosols are considered "hazardous" and to "pose a hazardous risk" to surrounding agricultural and residential communities if concentrations are elevated above World Health Organization (WHO) or Occupational Safety and Health Administration maximum exposure limits (OSHA) (SO2: 7 ppm for a 24-hr period; HCl: 5 ppm for a 24-hr period; HF: 3 ppm for a 10-hr period). By assessing volatile concentrations from past eruptions we can better constrain the probable volatile hazards future cinder cone eruptions pose to surrounding agricultural and residential communities near the Cascades.

  2. Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonson, J.E.; Jalkanen, J.P.; Johansson, L.; Gauss, M.; Gon, H.A.C.D. van der

    2015-01-01

    Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (sulfur emission

  3. Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Hongbo

    2017-01-01

    As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Future Tense and Economic Decisions: Controlling for Cultural Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Seán G; Winters, James; Chen, Keith

    2015-01-01

    A previous study by Chen demonstrates a correlation between languages that grammatically mark future events and their speakers' propensity to save, even after controlling for numerous economic and demographic factors. The implication is that languages which grammatically distinguish the present and the future may bias their speakers to distinguish them psychologically, leading to less future-oriented decision making. However, Chen's original analysis assumed languages are independent. This neglects the fact that languages are related, causing correlations to appear stronger than is warranted (Galton's problem). In this paper, we test the robustness of Chen's correlations to corrections for the geographic and historical relatedness of languages. While the question seems simple, the answer is complex. In general, the statistical correlation between the two variables is weaker when controlling for relatedness. When applying the strictest tests for relatedness, and when data is not aggregated across individuals, the correlation is not significant. However, the correlation did remain reasonably robust under a number of tests. We argue that any claims of synchronic patterns between cultural variables should be tested for spurious correlations, with the kinds of approaches used in this paper. However, experiments or case-studies would be more fruitful avenues for future research on this specific topic, rather than further large-scale cross-cultural correlational studies.

  5. Uncertainty in future global energy use and fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions 1975 to 2075: Appendices A--B

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, J.A. [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Washington, DC (United States). Inst. for Energy Analysis; Reilly, J.M. [Pacific Northwest Labs., Washington, DC (United States); Gardner, R.H. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Brenkert, A. [Science Applications International Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Appendix A contains the Monte Carlo Data Set. The data sheets give the distribution for input variables used in Monte Carlo analysis of the IEA/ORAU Global Energy, CO{sub 2} Model. The data sheets include a discussion of data sources, bibliographic sources, and other considerations used in developing the particular data format and values for distributions. As much detail as possible about how distributions are related to published estimates is given but in most cases it was necessary to make a significant leap from available data to the quantified distribution. The distributions are meant to be roughly accurate and to the degree that uncertainty exists about the form and value of distributions, the authors have tended to opt for wider bounds. Appendix B contains The IEA/ORAU Long-Term Global Energy-CO{sub 2} Model, Version A.84 -- Model Improvements. The model was originally developed in 1982 in support of work conducted for the US Department of Energy Carbon Dioxide Research Division in the area of future global fossil fuel related CO emissions research. The uncertainty analysis, documented in this report, made demands on the model that had not previously been made, and in the process of operating the model much was learned about areas in which simplification or elaboration was justified, or in which a different approach was warranted. As a consequence of these criticisms, demands, and learning numerous model modifications were undertaken. Since two versions of the model now exist, version specifications have been adopted. The 1984 version is designated A.84, while the version completed in 1982 is designated B.82. Model changes fall into three categories: those which affect the theoretical structure of the model, those which affect the computational processes of the model, and those which affect only the model by which model inputs are entered.

  6. Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Jonson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (sulfur emission control areas, although recently sulfur emissions, and subsequently particle emissions, have decreased. The maximum allowed sulfur content in marine fuels in EU ports is now 0.1%, as required by the European Union sulfur directive. In the SECAs the maximum fuel content of sulfur is currently 1% (the global average is about 2.4%. This will be reduced to 0.1% from 2015, following the new International Maritime Organization (IMO rules. In order to assess the effects of ship emissions in and around the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, regional model calculations with the EMEP air pollution model have been made on a 1/4° longitude × 1/8° latitude resolution, using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea that are based on accurate ship positioning data. The effects on depositions and air pollution and the resulting number of years of life lost (YOLLs have been calculated by comparing model calculations with and without ship emissions in the two sea areas. In 2010 stricter regulations for sulfur emissions were implemented in the two sea areas, reducing the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from 1.5 to 1%. In addition ships were required to use fuels with 0.1 % sulfur in EU harbours. The calculations have been made with emissions representative of 2009 and 2011, i.e. before and after the implementation of the stricter controls on sulfur emissions from 2010. The calculations with present emissions show that per person, an additional 0.1–0.2 years of life lost is estimated in areas close to the major ship tracks with current emission levels. Comparisons of model calculations with emissions before and after the implementation of stricter

  7. Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonson, J. E.; Jalkanen, J. P.; Johansson, L.; Gauss, M.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.

    2015-01-01

    Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have increased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, defined as SECAs (sulfur emission control areas), although recently sulfur emissions, and subsequently particle emissions, have decreased. The maximum allowed sulfur content in marine fuels in EU ports is now 0.1%, as required by the European Union sulfur directive. In the SECAs the maximum fuel content of sulfur is currently 1% (the global average is about 2.4%). This will be reduced to 0.1% from 2015, following the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules. In order to assess the effects of ship emissions in and around the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, regional model calculations with the EMEP air pollution model have been made on a 1/4° longitude × 1/8° latitude resolution, using ship emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea that are based on accurate ship positioning data. The effects on depositions and air pollution and the resulting number of years of life lost (YOLLs) have been calculated by comparing model calculations with and without ship emissions in the two sea areas. In 2010 stricter regulations for sulfur emissions were implemented in the two sea areas, reducing the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from 1.5 to 1%. In addition ships were required to use fuels with 0.1 % sulfur in EU harbours. The calculations have been made with emissions representative of 2009 and 2011, i.e. before and after the implementation of the stricter controls on sulfur emissions from 2010. The calculations with present emissions show that per person, an additional 0.1-0.2 years of life lost is estimated in areas close to the major ship tracks with current emission levels. Comparisons of model calculations with emissions before and after the implementation of stricter emission control on

  8. The Future of Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Christian; Ossandón, José

    2013-01-01

    Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011.......Review of Elena Esposito: The Future of Futures. The Time of Money in Financing and Society Cheltenham. Edward Elgar, 2011....

  9. Uncertainty In Greenhouse Gas Emissions On Carbon Sequestration In Coastal and Freshwater Wetlands of the Mississippi River Delta: A Subsiding Coastline as a Proxy for Future Global Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J. R.; DeLaune, R. D.; Roy, E. D.; Corstanje, R.

    2014-12-01

    The highly visible phenomenon of wetland loss in coastal Louisiana (LA) is examined through the prism of carbon accumulation, wetland loss and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Mississippi River Deltaic region experiences higher relative sea level rise due to coupled subsidence and eustatic sea level rise allowing this region to serve as a proxy for future projected golbal sea level rise. Carbon storage or sequestration in rapidly subsiding LA coastal marsh soils is based on vertical marsh accretion and areal change data. While coastal marshes sequester significant amount of carbon through vertical accretion, large amounts of carbon, previously sequested in the soil profile is lost through annual deterioration of these coastal marshes as well as through GHG emissions. Efforts are underway in Louisiana to access the carbon credit market in order to provide significant funding for coastal restoration projects. However, there is very large uncertainty on GHG emission rates related to both marsh type and temporal (daily and seasonal) effects. Very little data currently exists which addresses this uncertainty which can significantly affect the carbon credit value of a particular wetland system. We provide an analysis of GHG emission rates for coastal freshwater, brackish and and salt marshes compared to the net soil carbon sequestration rate. Results demonstrate that there is very high uncertainty on GHG emissions which can substantially alter the carbon credit value of a particular wetland system.

  10. CO{sub 2}-emissions from future waste incineration - Sub-Project 5; CO{sub 2}-utslaepp fraan framtida avfallsfoerbraanning - Delprojekt 5 inom projektet Perspektiv paa framtida avfallsbehandling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bisaillon, Mattias; Detterfelt, Lia; Edner, Stig; Maartenssson, Paal

    2013-09-01

    The use of fossil fuels in Swedish district heating systems has fallen sharply. With continued pressure from society to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, it is likely that the use of these fuels will decrease further. The major remaining source of emissions of fossil carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) from district heating systems 2020 is waste incineration with energy recovery in the form of electricity and heat. The aim of this project was, from two perspectives (stack perspective and system perspective), to analyze future emissions of fossil CO{sub 2} from Swedish waste incineration in the Swedish district heating systems. By studying both perspectives at the same time, the results answer whether changes in emissions in one perspective give similar or opposite effects seen from the other perspective. The purpose was also to make cost estimates for emission reduction measures affecting waste, energy and material production system. These costs were related to the price of allowances in the EU ETS and to the Swedish carbon tax. The project was performed in 2012 as a part of the research project 'Perspectives on sustainable waste treatment'.

  11. A review of initiatives to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions from the city of Oxford: past, present and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Rajat

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews three key initiatives undertaken in the historical city of Oxford to bring about reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions on a city-wide scale. The author has been part of all the three initiatives. In 2002, a collaborative partnership between academia, industry and city council started the Oxford Solar Initiative (OSI) which uses a community-based approach to help households and organisations in Oxford, financially and technically, to install solar energy systems and energy efficiency measures in buildings. So far OSI has facilitated the installation of 80 active solar systems, over 450 energy efficiency measures and 3,000 low energy bulbs. The scientific basis of OSI is a GIS-based DECoRuM model which estimates and maps baseline energy use and CO 2 emissions on a house-by house level, identifies 'pollution' hotspots, predicts the potential for reductions in CO 2 emissions and monitors reductions achieved as a result of deploying energy efficiency measures and renewable energy systems. The application of DECoRuM model to a case study in Oxford shows that CO 2 emission reductions above 60 % are possible, at a cost of between GBP 6 to GBP 77 per tonne of CO 2 emissions saved, depending upon the package of measures used, and the scenario of capital costs (low or high) employed. The OSI and DECoRuM projects have led to the development of an action-oriented Oxford Climate Change Action Plan (OCCAP) which constructs an accurate CO 2 emissions inventory for Oxford city for a baseline year, establishes CO 2 reduction targets and proposes action for each of the energy-related sectors to meet those targets. The OCCAP will be implemented by Oxford City Council and provides a useful example for other cities in their endeavour for emission reductions

  12. Integrated powertrain control to meet future CO2 and Euro-6 emissions targets for a diesel hybrid with SCR-deNOx system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willems, F.P.T.; Foster, D.L.

    2009-01-01

    A new concept is introduced to optimize the performance of the entire powertrain: Integrated Powertrain Control (IPC). In this concept, the synergy between engine, driveline and aftertreatment system is exploited by integrated energy and emission management. As a result, fuel efficiency and

  13. Several companies will not be able to earn amounts necessary to meet strictest European Union standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zackova, K.; Sobinkovic, B.

    2003-01-01

    Costs of meeting environmental laws, regulations and directives applying to industrial companies are relatively high. Some companies are therefore concerned that they will not be in the position to accumulate sufficient funds to meet the requirements of newly introduced legislation reflecting the European Union (EU) environmental standards. And those plants that will not manage to comply with the new regulation by the set deadline, will face a threat of being closed down. In some cases the threat will be softened by transition periods agreed on in course of pre-entry negotiations on the chapter environment and through time schedules provided for in the newly introduced regulations. Danish consultant company Niras in co-operation with Institute of Slovak and World Economy at SAV (Slovak Academy of Science) calculated that the costs related to implementation EU environmental standards by 2035 would amount to 437 bn Slovak crowns (Sk) (10.57 billion Euro). Chief Negotiator of Slovakia's EU-entry, Jan Figel confirmed that from financial point of view the implementation of environmental standards was the most demanding requirement of all. Experts cannot predict yet what part of these costs will be covered by companies themselves. The highest amount should be spent on water protection - 185 billion Sk (4.47 billion Euro) until 2030. In the waste disposal industry the necessary investments during the same period are estimated to 130 billion Sk (3.14 billion Euro) and another 90 billion Sk (2.18 billion Euro) will have to be spent on big incineration facilities. The mentioned amount of 437 billion Sk (10.57 billion Euro) does not include any costs related to liquidation of old environmental burdens. But this problem will be partially solved through the new environmental arrangements. Several industrial companies are not allowed to build new waste dumps as long as they have not liquidated the old ones or at leas have addressed the matter of contaminated soil. There is no comprehensive technique used for calculating environmental debts and so the information regarding their total amount differ. Ministry of Environment expects them to fall into an interval between 100 and 130 billion Sk (2.42 - 3.14 billion Euro) and in the middle of the nineties the entrepreneurs estimated it to more then 72 billion Sk (1.74 billion Euro). All the problems with financing of environmental arrangements can be traced back to the way companies approached this matter in the past. The more they invested into this area the less concerned they are about meeting the EU environmental standards. A majority of companies owned by foreigners have already invested a lot into environmental controls. (Authors)

  14. Simulating Everglades Carbon Fluxes and GHG Emission of Different Landscapes Under Present and Future Climate Conditions by Applying Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Y.; Gerber, S.

    2016-12-01

    Carbon flux in wetland distinguishes from that in other types of ecosystems due to special soil and hydrological processes. Understanding the dynamic of soil hydrology is necessary to explore the responses of the plants, the fate of massive carbon storage and greenhouse gas emissions under different climate conditions. However, contrary findings were published regarding the relationship between CO2 emission and water level variations. Both positive and negative conclusions were reached regarding the warming mitigation ability of wetland. By parameterizing the Community Land Model (CLM), our research focuses on simulating the CO2/CH4 fluxes of different landscapes in Everglades, a subtropical wetland in Florida, to explore the following questions: 1) Is it a sink or source for CO2? 2) How may the CO2/CH4 dynamics be altered with water table and soil water content? 3) What environmental factors mainly control CO2/CH4 process? 4) Does this ecosystem contribute or mitigate cliamte warming? 5) What is the difference between landscapes regarding the CO2/CH4 dynamic? We performed several simulations with CLM that address the variation of water table in soil layers and the elevated temperature to compare the impact on the carbon fluxes and GHG emission in the study area. Our results suggest the variation on water table depth has significant influence on the carbon cycle in Everglades. Deeper water table results in a higher CO2 but lower CH4 emission, partly due to the CH4 oxidization and the rapid decomposition of organic carbon. In the wet season, more CH4 is produced when the water table is shallower. Slightly elevated temperature causes a water loss through evapotranspiration which deepens the water table. However, the induced carbon loss is partly offset by the enhanced productivity of vegetation. Both long and short hydroperiod marshes are small carbon sinks in most of years but cannot mitigate the climate warming if considering CH4 emissions. Cypress swamp shows high

  15. research document no. 27 bis. After the Hague, Bonn and Marrakech: the future international market for emissions permits and the issue of hot air

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, O.; Criqui, P.; Kitous, A.

    2002-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to assess the Bonn-Marrakech agreement, in terms of abatement cost and emission trading as compared with the initial agreement reached in Kyoto (the Kyoto Protocol). Our reference case (the Initial Deal) does not include the use of sinks credits, as the Kyoto Protocol does not give explicit figures nor method to estimate them. In addition, two hypothetical situations are considered. The first describes the ''missed compromise'' that could have emerged among all Parties in November 2000 in The Hague. The second is a virtual case where the US is assumed to be part of the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement, along with all the other Parties. These two cases contribute to shed the light on the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement potential pitfalls. In the current situation, the US is out of the negotiation process and has no emission reduction commitment. Given the projections of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions used in this study, the Former Soviet Union countries (FSU) and the Eastern European Economies (EEE) that are part of the Annex B have potentially enough Hot Air to fulfill the overall commitment of the Annex B bubble, without any domestic abatement effort from the other Annex B countries. We show that in the theoretical case where no limit would be imposed on the selling of Hot Air, the permit price according to the POLES model would be zero as no market equilibrium could take place. This is why, next, we examine the economic impacts of restrictions to hot air trading, for FSU and EEE as well as for the other countries. We shed the light on the potential market power of the former countries that arises from the Bonn-Marrakech Agreement. (author)

  16. Probabilistic estimation of future emissions of isoprene and surface oxidant chemistry associated with land-use change in response to growing food needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Hardacre

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available We quantify the impact of land-use change, determined by our growing demand for food and biofuel production, on isoprene emissions and subsequent atmospheric oxidant chemistry in 2015 and 2030, relative to 1990, ignoring compound climate change effects over that period. We estimate isoprene emissions from an ensemble (n = 1000 of land-use change realizations from 1990–2050, broadly guided by the IPCC AR4/SRES scenarios A1 and B1. We also superimpose land-use change required to address projected biofuel usage using two scenarios: (1 assuming that world governments make no changes to biofuel policy after 2009, and (2 assuming that world governments develop biofuel policy with the aim of keeping equivalent atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm. We present the median and interquartile range (IQR statistics of the ensemble and show that land-use change between −1.50 × 1012 m2 to +6.06 × 1012 m2 was found to drive changes in the global isoprene burden of −3.5 to +2.8 Tg yr−1 in 2015 and −7.7 to +6.4 Tg yr−1 in 2030. We use land-use change realizations corresponding to the median and IQR of these emission estimates to drive the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemistry transport model to investigate the perturbation to global and regional surface concentrations of isoprene, nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2, and the atmospheric concentration and deposition of ozone (O3. We show that across subcontinental regions the monthly surface O3 increases by 0.1–0.8 ppb, relative to a zero land-use change calculation, driven by increases (decreases in surface isoprene in high (low NOx environments. At the local scale (4° × 5° we find that surface O3 increases by 5–12 ppb over temperate North America, China and boreal Eurasia, driven by large increases in isoprene emissions from short-rotation coppice crop cultivation for biofuel production.

  17. Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Hongbo

    2017-01-01

    Background: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. Methods: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiative forcing and warming. Results: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Conclusions: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. - Highlights: • We assess the warming benefits associated with substitution of wind power for coal. • The effect of emission space limits on climate responses is deeply examined. • China is responsible for at most 21.76% of global warming given the 2-degree target. • Wind power alone may not be sufficient to face the challenge of climate change. • A fertile policy soil and an aggressive plan are necessary to boost renewables.

  18. Estimating Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions in 2050 from New Buildings in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beardsley, K.; Thorne, J. H.; Quinn, J. F.

    2009-12-01

    A major contributor to global warming is Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO2) as the lead constituent. While the United States has failed to take a leadership role in worldwide efforts to reduce global warming, California has implemented some of the strictest reduction goals in the country. Recent legislation in California requires significant GHG emission reductions in the coming decades to meet state-mandated targets. To better understand the relative contribution of urban growth to these emissions, we applied an Energy and GHG Impacts Calculator (referred to as “GHG Calculator”) to estimate GHG contributions for two statewide population growth scenarios for the year 2050. Implemented as part of the UPlan urban growth model, the GHG Calculator allows users to predict and compare GHG output from new development. In this paper, two scenarios, differing only in the spatial allocation of housing among zoning categories, are developed and tested for the year 2050 in California. The difference in total GHG emissions between these scenarios was less than 1%. Thus, while “smart growth” may be desirable for a variety of other reasons, the policy impact of the sprawl footprint per se on fixed-source GHG emissions is likely to be far less than effects from other factors, such as insulation and household energy efficiency. The GHG Calculator allows alternative emission-reducing measures to be tested, including modified energy mixes (e.g. a greater percent of renewable sources and lower carbon-based fuels) and conservation measures. The goal is to approximate 2050 emissions and determine what measures are needed to achieve the 2050 goal set by the Governor of California to help decrease the State’s overall contribution to global warming.

  19. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  20. Using Lava Tube Skylight Thermal Emission Spectra to Determine Lava Composition on Io: Quantitative Constraints for Observations by Future Missions to the Jovian System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, A. G.

    2008-12-01

    Deriving the composition of Io's dominant lavas (mafic or ultramafic?) is a major objective of the next missions to the jovian system. The best opportunities for making this determination are from observations of thermal emission from skylights, holes in the roof of a lava tube through which incandescent lava radiates, and Io thermal outbursts, where lava fountaining is taking place [1]. Allowing for lava cooling across the skylight, the expected thermal emission spectra from skylights of different sizes have been calculated for laminar and turbulent tube flow and for mafic and ultramafic composition lavas. The difference between the resulting mafic and ultramafic lava spectra has been quantified, as has the instrument sensitivity needed to acquire the necessary data to determine lava eruption temperature, both from Europa orbit and during an Io flyby. A skylight is an excellent target to observe lava that has cooled very little since eruption (temperatures close to lava eruption temperature. Skylights are therefore easily discernible against a cool background, and are detectable from great distances at night or with Io in eclipse with imagers covering the range 0.4 to 5.0 μm. To distinguish between ultramafic and mafic lavas, multispectral (or hyperspectral) observations with precise exposure timing and knowledge of filter response are needed in the range 0.4 to 0.8 μm, with (minimally) an additional model-constraining measurement at ~4-5 μm. As with many lava tube systems on Earth, skylights should be common on Io (for example, at Prometheus, Culann and Amirani). The possible superheating of lava prior to eruption complicates the analysis [4], but is likely to be significant only for deep- seated, often explosive, eruptions. Effusive activity at the aforementioned three locations is likely fed from shallow reservoirs [5], minimising superheating effects. This work was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory-California Institute of Technology, under

  1. Modeling of Cosmic-Ray Propagation and Galactic Diffuse Gamma-Ray Emission in Support of Current and Future NASA Missions, Phase 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskalenko, Igor

    This is a "Phase 3" successor proposal that is a continuation of work funded by the Astrophysics Research and Analysis (APRA) Program through the sub-topic "Particle Astrophysics": Considerable advances in astrophysics of cosmic rays in recent years have become possible due to superior instrumentation launched into space and to the top of the atmosphere. The ACE-CRIS, AMS-02, Fermi-LAT, HAWC, PAMELA, SuperTIGER, Voyager 1,2, WMAP, and many other missions made a lot of breakthroughs and more is expected in the following years. Other high-expectations missions are recently launched (CALET) or are awaiting for launch (ISS-CREAM). The claimed precision of the AMS- 02 data reaches 1-3%. Taking full advantage of the high quality data requires numerical models of comparable accuracy. The current state-of-the-art cosmic ray propagation model is GALPROP, which has become a standard analysis tool in astrophysics of cosmic rays, studies of the diffuse emissions, and related fields. It provides a unified framework for the interpretation of data collected by many different kinds of experiments and emphasizes the inter-relationship between different types of data. We are proposing considerable improvements of the GALPROP model and tool that include generalization of the description of the components of the Galactic interstellar medium to the full 3D and extensive application of the Bayesian tools in building such data-sets, development of a heliospheric propagation tool fully compatible with GALPROP, development of a reliable diffuse emission model in the keV-TeV energy range, generalization of the nuclear reaction network and cross section routines to include trans-iron nuclides, improvements in the description of the production of secondary particles in cosmic ray interactions, various speed and memory optimizations. We will continue to support a dedicated website which hosts GALPROP WebRun, a user-friendly interface for running the GALPROP code on a dedicated cluster

  2. Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmittner, Andreas; Oschlies, Andreas; Matthews, H. Damon; Galbraith, Eric D.

    2008-03-01

    A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ˜1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ˜10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial

  3. Materials towards carbon-free, emission-free and oil-free mobility: hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles--now and in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirose, Katsuhiko

    2010-07-28

    In the past, material innovation has changed society through new material-induced technologies, adding a new value to society. In the present world, engineers and scientists are expected to invent new materials to solve the global problem of climate change. For the transport sector, the challenge for material engineers is to change the oil-based world into a sustainable world. After witnessing the recent high oil price and its adverse impact on the global economy, it is time to accelerate our efforts towards this change. Industries are tackling global energy issues such as oil and CO2, as well as local environmental problems, such as NO(x) and particulate matter. Hydrogen is the most promising candidate to provide carbon-free, emission-free and oil-free mobility. As such, engineers are working very hard to bring this technology into the real society. This paper describes recent progress of vehicle technologies, as well as hydrogen-storage technologies to extend the cruise range and ensure the easiness of refuelling and requesting material scientists to collaborate with industry to fight against global warming.

  4. California Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projections: 2017-2025 - Future Infrastructure Needs for Reaching the State's Zero Emission-Vehicle Deployment Goals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, Eric W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rames, Clement L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bedir, Abdulkadir [California Energy Commission; Crisostomo, Noel [California Energy Commission; Allen, Jennifer [California Energy Commission

    2018-03-27

    This report analyzes plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) infrastructure needs in California from 2017 to 2025 in a scenario where the State's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) deployment goals are achieved by household vehicles. The statewide infrastructure needs are evaluated by using the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection tool, which incorporates representative statewide travel data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey. The infrastructure solution presented in this assessment addresses two primary objectives: (1) enabling travel for battery electric vehicles and (2) maximizing the electric vehicle-miles traveled for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The analysis is performed at the county-level for each year between 2017 and 2025 while considering potential technology improvements. The results from this study present an infrastructure solution that can facilitate market growth for PEVs to reach the State's ZEV goals by 2025. The overall results show a need for 99k-130k destination chargers, including workplaces and public locations, and 9k-25k fast chargers. The results also show a need for dedicated or shared residential charging solutions at multi-family dwellings, which are expected to host about 120k PEVs by 2025. An improvement to the scientific literature, this analysis presents the significance of infrastructure reliability and accessibility on the quantification of charger demand.

  5. Microalgae for third generation biofuel production, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and wastewater treatment: Present and future perspectives – A mini review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maity, Jyoti Prakash; Bundschuh, Jochen; Chen, Chien-Yen; Bhattacharya, Prosun

    2014-01-01

    The extensive use of fossil fuels is increasingly recognized as unsustainable as a consequence of depletion of supplies and the contribution of these fuels to climate change by GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions into the atmosphere. Microalgae indicate alternative renewable sustainable energy sources as they have a high potential for producing large amounts of biomass which in turn can be used for production of different third-generation biofuels at large scale. Microalgae transform the solar energy into the carbon storage products, leads to lipid accumulation, including TAG (triacylglycerols), which then can be transformed into biodiesel, bioethanol and biomethanol. This paper reviews the selection, production and accumulation of target bioenergy carrier's strains and their advantages as well as the technological development for oil, biodiesel, ethanol, methanol, biogas production and GHG mitigation. The feedstock of promising algal strain exhibits the suitable biofuel production. The current progress of hybrid-technologies (biomass production, wastewater treatment, GHG mitigation) for production of prime-products as biofuels offer atmospheric pollution control such as the reduction of GHG (CO 2 fixation) coupling wastewater treatment with microalgae growth. The selection of efficient strain, microbial metabolism, cultivation systems, biomass production are key parameters of viable technology for microalgae-based biodiesel-production. - Highlights: • Microalgae are promising feedstock for biofuel production within lower farming area. • Production rate (L/ha) of oil from microalgae is much higher than other feedstock. • Lipid of Chlorella emersonii, Botryococcus braunii, Dunaliella tertiolecta, are high (>60% of dw biomass). • Remove pollutant from wastewater during feedstock production by selective strains. • Ecofriendly route to mitigate GHG (greenhouse gas) and water pollution during microalgae production

  6. Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2015) and Future (2025-2030) Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Marcus; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J.

    2016-01-01

    This study provides a comprehensive life-cycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, as well as the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. This study also estimates the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of key fuel and vehicle technologies along the pathways. The C2G analysis spans a full portfolio of midsize light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). In evaluating the vehicle-fuel combinations, this study considers both low-volume and high-volume ''CURRENT TECHNOLOGY'' cases (nominally 2015) and a high-volume ''FUTURE TECHNOLOGY'' lower-carbon case (nominally 2025-2030). For the CURRENT TECHNOLOGY case, low-volume vehicle and fuel production pathways are examined to determine costs in the near term.

  7. Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2015) and Future (2025-2030) Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, Todd; Biddy, Mary; Alexander, Marcus; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy

    2016-06-01

    This study provides a comprehensive lifecycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, as well as the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. This study also estimates the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of key fuel and vehicle technologies along the pathways. The C2G analysis spans a full portfolio of midsize light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). In evaluating the vehicle-fuel combinations, this study considers both low-volume and high-volume “CURRENT TECHNOLOGY” cases (nominally 2015) and a high-volume “FUTURE TECHNOLOGY” lower-carbon case (nominally 2025–2030). For the CURRENT TECHNOLOGY case, low-volume vehicle and fuel production pathways are examined to determine costs in the near term.

  8. Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment of Current (2015) and Future (2025–2030) Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elgowainy, Amgad [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Han, Jeongwoo [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Ward, Jacob [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Joseck, Fred [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Gohlke, David [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Lindauer, Alicia [Dept. of Energy (DOE), Washington DC (United States); Ramsden, Todd [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Biddy, Mary [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Alexander, Marcus [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Barnhart, Steven [Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) US LLC, Auburn Hills, MI (United States); Sutherland, Ian [General Motors, Warren, MI (United States); Verduzco, Laura [Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, CA (United States); Wallington, Timothy J. [Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, MI (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This study provides a comprehensive life-cycle analysis (LCA), or cradle-to-grave (C2G) analysis, of the cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a variety of vehicle-fuel pathways, as well as the levelized cost of driving (LCD) and cost of avoided GHG emissions. This study also estimates the technology readiness levels (TRLs) of key fuel and vehicle technologies along the pathways. The C2G analysis spans a full portfolio of midsize light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). In evaluating the vehicle-fuel combinations, this study considers both low-volume and high-volume “CURRENT TECHNOLOGY” cases (nominally 2015) and a high-volume “FUTURE TECHNOLOGY” lower-carbon case (nominally 2025–2030). For the CURRENT TECHNOLOGY case, low-volume vehicle and fuel production pathways are examined to determine costs in the near term.

  9. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaveau, David L. A.; Wich, Serge; Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel; Kanninen, Markku; Leader-Williams, Nigel

    2009-09-01

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km2 that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km2 protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km2 of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km2) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km2), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km2 of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an upland PA may not significantly reduce

  10. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaveau, David L A; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Wich, Serge; Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel; Kanninen, Markku

    2009-01-01

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km 2 that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km 2 protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km 2 of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km 2 ) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km 2 ), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km 2 of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an upland PA may not significantly reduce

  11. Combined assessment of myocardial perfusion and function by ECG-gated myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography for the prediction of future cardiac events in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Masahiko; Matsumoto, Naoya; Nakano, Yoshimochi; Suzuki, Yasuyuki; Yoda, Shunichi; Nagao, Ken; Hirayama, Atsushi; Sato, Yuichi; Kasama, Shu

    2011-01-01

    The mid-term prognostic significance of electrocardiogram (ECG)-gated single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) remains unclear in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). In the present study rates of future cardiac events (nonfatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI), cardiac death (CD) and severe heart failure (HF) requiring hospitalization) were compared in patients with and without DM. 1,810 patients (563 DM and 1,247 non-DM) we followed for a mean of 26.3±15.5 months. Summed stress score (SSS), summed difference score (SDS), poststress ejection fraction (EF) and resting end-diastolic volume (EDV) were calculated. In total, 20 cases of AMI (9 in DM (1.59%) and 11 in non-DM (0.88%)), 20 of CD (7 in DM patients (1.24%) and 13 in non-DM (1.04%)) and 54 of severe HF (31 in DM (5.5%) and 23 in non-DM (1.84%)) occurred. Univariate Cox analysis showed that, in DM patients, predictors of total cardiac events were poststress EF (Wald 60.4; P 1c value (Wald 4.30; P<0.05). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that poststress EF (Wald 9.85; P<0.01) and SDS (Wald 6.19; P<0.01) were independent predictors of total cardiac events. Combined assessment of perfusion and function by ECG-gated SPECT may predict future cardiac events in type 2 DM patients. (author)

  12. Validation of the DNDC model in order to simulate future greenhouse gas emissions and soil carbon changes from the Prairie-Pothole region of North Dakota following prairie conversion to agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suddick, E.; Phillips, R. L.; Waldron, S. E.; Davidson, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in North America is home to a diverse range of habitats that support large populations of water fowl and other bird species. Some of the habitats such as the native prairie grasslands of the PPR are under threat due to conversion to cropland. Despite the importance of the PPR, little research has been conducted in this region to understand the impact land-use changes will have on greenhouse gas emissions and soil organic carbon storage (SOC). Therefore, process based biogeochemical models such as the Denitrification Decomposition (DNDC) model can be used to simulate the potential effects that future land-use change will have upon the cycling of carbon and nitrogen in both agricultural and non-agricultural ecosystems. The objective of this study was to validate the DNDC model for two different ecosystems within the PPR region. We aimed to test the ability of the model to predict the flux of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) and SOC changes in both an agricultural cropping system and a natural prairie in order to understand future land use change scenarios and forecast the change in N2O and SOC following prairie conversion to agriculture. Using a baseline climate scenario from observed daily measurements at each site, the DNDC model was tested against observed static chamber field measurements of N2O measured from April 2009 to December 2011, as well as being tested against other ancillary soil measurements (e.g., soil moisture and temperature) from an alfalfa cropping system and a native prairie grassland in the PPR of North Dakota, USA. Soils from the native prairie were classified as a non hydric clay loam with a SOC content of 0.033 kg C kg-1, where the alfalfa cropping system was a non hydric silt loam with a SOC content of 0.019 kg C kg-1. Initial results indicate that simulated N2O emissions at both sites and the change in SOC with conversion of prairie to cropland were generally in agreement with observed field

  13. Transportation Emissions: some basics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.

    2016-01-01

    . The main purpose of this chapter is to introduce some basic concepts that are relevant in the quest of green transportation logistics. First, we present the basics of estimating emissions from transportation activities, the current statistics and future trends, as well as the total impact of air emissions...... of the energy efficiency gap and examines why governments and companies may forego cost-effective investments in energy efficiency, even though they could significantly reduce energy consumption at a lower cost....

  14. Emissions Trading

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woerdman, Edwin; Backhaus, Juergen

    2014-01-01

    Emissions trading is a market-based instrument to achieve environmental targets in a cost-effective way by allowing legal entities to buy and sell emission rights. The current international dissemination and intended linking of emissions trading schemes underlines the growing relevance of this

  15. Emission Facilities - Air Emission Plants

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC Education | GIS Inventory — Represents the Primary Facility type Air Emission Plant (AEP) point features. Air Emissions Plant is a DEP primary facility type related to the Air Quality Program....

  16. Emission inventory; Inventaire des emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fontelle, J.P. [CITEPA, Centre Interprofessionnel Technique d`Etudes de la Pollution Atmospherique, 75 - Paris (France)

    1997-12-31

    Statistics on air pollutant (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonium) emissions, acid equivalent emissions and their evolution since 1990 in the various countries of Europe and the USA, are presented. Emission data from the industrial, agricultural, transportation and power sectors are given, and comparisons are carried out between countries based on Gnp and population, pollution import/export fluxes and compliance to the previous emission reduction objectives

  17. Prognostic value of myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography for the prediction of future cardiac events in a Japanese population. A middle-term follow-up study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, Naoya; Sato, Yuichi; Suzuki, Yasuyuki

    2007-01-01

    The prognostic value of rest 201 Tl/stress 99m Tc-tetrofosmin myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) for the prediction of future hard cardiac events, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), unstable angina (UAP) and cardiac death, and the implications for risk stratification has not yet been defined in a Japanese population. The 1,988 patients who underwent rest 201 Tl/stress 99m Tc-tetrofosmin SPECT were identified and followed up for the occurrence of AMI, UAP and cardiac death. The mean follow-up interval was 26.9±15.8 months. The 142 patients were revascularized within 60 days after SPECT and they were censored from the prognostic analysis. Summed stress score (SSS), summed rest score and summed difference score (SDS) were calculated using a 5-point scoring (Normal: 0, No uptake: 4) and a 20-segment model; 22 cases of myocardial infarction, 31 of UAP and 22 cardiac deaths occurred (1.2%, 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that hypertension (Wald 6.37, p<0.05) and SDS (Wald 8.77, p<0.01) were independent predictors of AMI and UAP. Advanced age (Wald 16.0, p<0.001), SSS (Wald 10.9, p<0.01) and SDS (Wald 4.58, p<0.05) were independent predictors of cardiac death. Myocardial perfusion SPECT yields prognostic information toward the identification of acute coronary syndrome and cardiac death. (author)

  18. A review of global and regional sulfur emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.

    1999-03-01

    The paper reviews base year emission inventories, driving forces, and long-term scenarios of sulfur emissions as background material for developing a new set of IPCC emissions scenarios. The paper concludes that future sulfur emission trends will be spatially heterogeneous (decline in OECD countries, rapid increase particularly in Asia) and therefore cannot be modeled at a global scale only. In view of ecosystems and food production impacts future sulfur emissions will need to be increasingly controlled also outside OECD countries. As a result, future sulfur emissions are likely to remain significantly below the values projected in the previous IPCC IS92 high emissions scenarios.

  19. A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A. [International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria)

    1998-12-31

    The paper reviews base year emission inventories, driving forces, and long-term scenarios of sulfur emissions as background material for developing a new set of IPCC emissions scenarios. The paper concludes that future sulfur emission trends will be spatially heterogeneous (decline in OECD countries, rapid increase particularly in Asia) and therefore cannot be modeled at a global scale only. In view of ecosystems and food production impacts future sulfur emissions will need to be increasingly controlled also outside OECD countries. As a result, future sulfur emissions are likely to remain significantly below the values projected in the previous IPCC IS92 high emissions scenarios. 47 refs.

  20. ECO2, Emissions Trading Services, development project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruokonen, A.

    2006-01-01

    Emissions Trading started within EU at the beginning of 2005. It caused substantial changes to the business environment of energy companies and energy intensive industry. The planning of Emissions Trading is a complicated process and companies will need consulting, IT systems and other services. Emissions Trading introduces a new factor of production emission allowances, which are tradable commodities. In future, Emissions Trading emissions, emission allowances and the prices of emission allowances have to be considered during the fuel purchasing and the energy production planning. And the best possible knowledge of the own emissions balance and market situation has a monetary value when trading emission allowances. Allocation of emission allowances has done in each country according to National Allocation Plan (NAP), accepted by EU. Finland itself and thus also the Finnish companies will be net buyers of emission allowances in long run. That means commonly that the Finnish companies have to buy more allowances meaning some extra costs to the companies. That's why it is very important to develop and provide to the companies an innovatory emissions planning, follow-up, management and reporting systems. With good emission balance management the extra costs of Emissions Trading will be as low as possible. In ECO2 project, Empower together with Power-Deriva, developed Expert services, Emissions Balance Management and Reporting services and Risk Management services for Emissions Trading and needed software and tools for these services. (orig.)

  1. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2011-01-01

    Future contingents are contingent statements about the future — such as future events, actions, states etc. To qualify as contingent the predicted event, state, action or whatever is at stake must neither be impossible nor inevitable. Statements such as “My mother shall go to London” or “There...... will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one......, ‘future contingents’ could also refer to future contingent objects. A statement like “The first astronaut to go to Mars will have a unique experience” could be analyzed as referring to an object not yet existing, supposing that one day in the distant future some person will indeed travel to Mars...

  2. Future Contingents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øhrstrøm, Peter; Hasle., Per F. V.

    2015-01-01

    Future contingents are contingent statements about the future — such as future events, actions, states etc. To qualify as contingent the predicted event, state, action or whatever is at stake must neither be impossible nor inevitable. Statements such as “My mother shall go to London” or “There...... will be a sea-battle tomorrow” could serve as standard examples. What could be called the problem of future contingents concerns how to ascribe truth-values to such statements. If there are several possible decisions out of which one is going to be made freely tomorrow, can there be a truth now about which one......, ‘future contingents’ could also refer to future contingent objects. A statement like “The first astronaut to go to Mars will have a unique experience” could be analyzed as referring to an object not yet existing, supposing that one day in the distant future some person will indeed travel to Mars...

  3. Implications of diesel emissions control failures to emission factors and road transport NOx evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntziachristos, Leonidas; Papadimitriou, Giannis; Ligterink, Norbert; Hausberger, Stefan

    2016-09-01

    Diesel NOx emissions have been at the forefront of research and regulation scrutiny as a result of failures of late vehicle technologies to deliver on-road emissions reductions. The current study aims at identifying the actual emissions levels of late light duty vehicle technologies, including Euro 5 and Euro 6 ones. Mean NOx emission factor levels used in the most popular EU vehicle emission models (COPERT, HBEFA and VERSIT+) are compared with latest emission information collected in the laboratory over real-world driving cycles and on the road using portable emissions measurement systems (PEMS). The comparison shows that Euro 5 passenger car (PC) emission factors well reflect on road levels and that recently revealed emissions control failures do not call for any significant corrections. However Euro 5 light commercial vehicles (LCVs) and Euro 6 PCs in the 2014-2016 period exhibit on road emission levels twice as high as used in current models. Moreover, measured levels vary a lot for Euro 6 vehicles. Scenarios for future evolution of Euro 6 emission factors, reflecting different degree of effectiveness of emissions control regulations, show that total NOx emissions from diesel Euro 6 PC and LCV may correspond from 49% up to 83% of total road transport emissions in 2050. Unless upcoming and long term regulations make sure that light duty diesel NOx emissions are effectively addressed, this will have significant implications in meeting future air quality and national emissions ceilings targets.

  4. Emission spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, R.M.

    1978-01-01

    This 16th article in the series of biennial reviews of emission spectroscopy surveys with emphasis the emission spectrochemical literature appearing in referred publications during 1976 and 1977. Books and general reviews of emission spectroscopy and closely related subjects are considered in the first section, whereas specific reviews and texts are included in each of the five tropical sections. Spectral descriptions and classifications are examined in the second section. An abbreviated instrumentation section follows, and standards, samples, calibrations, and calculations are evaluated in the fourth section. The emphasis on excitation sources reflects the size of section five. In the sixth section, important applications are explored

  5. Prospects for future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    The different climates of the past and model simulations of future climates convincingly indicate that the continuing emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to significant global warming and to changes in precipitation and other climatic variables. The projected changes in atmospheric composition and, consequently, in climatic conditions will be unique and more rapid than at any time in the past. The developing understanding of the chemical cycles controlling atmospheric composition and of the processes and behavior controlling the climate system can provide significant guidance about how the future climate will change. This chapter first summarizes the many scientific advances described in the preceding chapters that can help one better understand and describe the climate system and the resulting agricultural and hydrological impacts of these changes in climate. The chapter then draws from this understanding to outline the prospects for future climate

  6. Future Textiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne-Louise Degn; Jensen, Hanne Troels Fusvad; Hansen, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Magasinet Future Textiles samler resultaterne fra projektet Future Textiles, der markedsfører området intelligente tekstiler. I magasinet kan man læse om trends, drivkræfter, udfordringer samt få ideer til nye produkter inden for intelligente tekstiler. Områder som bæredygtighed og kundetilpasning...

  7. Energy future 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syri, S.; Kainiemi, L.; Riikonen, V. [Aalto Univ. School of Engineering, Espoo (Finland). Dept. of Energy Technology

    2011-07-01

    The track was organized by the Department of Energy Technology, School of Engineering, at Aalto University. Energy future 2050 -track introduced participants to the global long-term challenges of achieving a sustainable energy supply. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), effective climate change mitigation would require the global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by 50-85% from the present level by 2050. For industrialized countries, this would probably mean a practically carbon-neutral economy and energy supply, as developing countries need more possibilities for growth and probably enter stricter emission reduction commitments with some delay. In the beginning of the workshop, students were introduced to global energy scenarios and the challenge of climate change mitigation. Students worked in three groups with the following topics: How to gain public acceptance of Carbon (dioxide) Capture and Storage (CCS) ? Personal emissions trading as a tool to achieve deep emission cuts, How to get rid of fossil fuel subsidies? Nordic cases are peat use in Finland and Sweden. (orig.)

  8. Sustainable Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainable Futures is a voluntary program that encourages industry to use predictive models to screen new chemicals early in the development process and offers incentives to companies subject to TSCA section 5.

  9. Acoustic emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Straus, A.; Lopez Pumarega, M.I.; Di Gaetano, J.O.; D'Atellis, C.E.; Ruzzante, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper is related to our activities on acoustic emission (A.E.). The work is made with different materials: metals and fibre reinforced plastics. At present, acoustic emission transducers are being developed for low and high temperature. A test to detect electrical discharges in electrical transformers was performed. Our experience in industrial tests to detect cracks or failures in tanks or tubes is also described. The use of A.E. for leak detection is considered. Works on pattern recognition of A.E. signals are also being performed. (Author)

  10. Agricultural futures as becoming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dan Kristian; Kjeldsen, Chris

    This paper explores how the unfolding of an alternative future for agriculture consists of struggles to assemble a heterogeneous network of natural relations and social relations and technological relations. The site of this exploration is a profiled project, where a zero emission and landless...... in the conventional production, regarding animal welfare and working conditions for employees.The exploration accounts for the entanglement and the shape-shifting that happens as the project moves between different settings (administrative, natural, technical, political and locality). It shows how the project gains......) thing comes into being as a socio-technical network....

  11. 40 CFR 1039.715 - How do I bank emission credits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., Banking, and Trading for Certification § 1039.715 How do I bank emission credits? (a) Banking is the retention of emission credits by the manufacturer generating the emission credits for use in future model...

  12. 40 CFR 1045.715 - How do I bank emission credits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., Banking, and Trading for Certification § 1045.715 How do I bank emission credits? (a) Banking is the retention of emission credits by the manufacturer generating the emission credits for use in future model...

  13. Acoustic emission

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    3Universidade do Minho, Department Engineering Mecânica, Azurém,. 4800058 Guimar˜aes, Portugal e-mail: mathew@dem.uminho.pt. Abstract. Acoustic Emission (AE) has been widely used for monitoring man- ufacturing processes particularly those involving metal cutting. Monitoring the condition of the cutting tool in the ...

  14. Future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    International involvement in particle physics is what the International Committee for Future Accelerators (ICFA) is all about. At the latest Future Perspectives meeting at Brookhaven from 5-10 October (after a keynote speech by doyen Viktor Weisskopf, who regretted the emergence of 'a nationalistic trend'), ICFA reviewed progress and examined its commitments in the light of the evolving world particle physics scene. Particular aims were to review worldwide accelerator achievements and plans, to survey the work of the four panels, and to discuss ICFA's special role in future cooperation in accelerator construction and use, and in research and development work for both accelerators and for detectors

  15. Future Savvy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Adam

    -tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive......There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think...... material of all types, including providing a battery of critical tests to apply to any forecast to assess its validity, and judge how to fit it into everyday management thinking. The book synthesizes information assessment skills and future studies tools into a single template that allows managers to apply...

  16. Global emissions inventories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dignon, J.

    1995-07-01

    Atmospheric chemistry determines the concentrations of most of the important greenhouse gases except for carbon dioxide. The rate of removal of the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also controlled by atmospheric chemistry. The indirect effects of chemical forcing resulting from the chemical interactions of other species can also affect the concentrations of radiatively important gases such as ozone. In order to establish the contribution of any possible climatic change attributable to individual greenhouse gases, spatially and temporally resolved estimates of their emissions need to be established. Unfortunately, for most of the radiatively important species the global magnitudes of their individual fluxes are not known to better than a factor of two and their spatial distributions are even more poorly characterized. Efforts to estimate future projections of potential impacts and to monitor international agreements will require continued research to narrow the uncertainties of magnitude and geographical distribution of emissions.

  17. Global emissions inventories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dignon, J.

    1995-07-01

    Atmospheric chemistry determines the concentrations of most of the important greenhouse gases except for carbon dioxide. The rate of removal of the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere is also controlled by atmospheric chemistry. The indirect effects of chemical forcing resulting from the chemical interactions of other species can also affect the concentrations of radiatively important gases such as ozone. In order to establish the contribution of any possible climatic change attributable to individual greenhouse gases, spatially and temporally resolved estimates of their emissions need to be established. Unfortunately, for most of the radiatively important species the global magnitudes of their individual fluxes are not known to better than a factor of two and their spatial distributions are even more poorly characterized. Efforts to estimate future projections of potential impacts and to monitor international agreements will require continued research to narrow the uncertainties of magnitude and geographical distribution of emissions

  18. Energy Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davies, Sarah Rachael; Selin, Cynthia

    2012-01-01

    foresight and public and stakeholder engagement are used to reflect on?and direct?the impacts of new technology. In this essay we draw on our experience of anticipatory governance, in the shape of the ?NanoFutures? project on energy futures, to present a reflexive analysis of engagement and deliberation. We...... draw out five tensions of the practice of deliberation on energy technologies. Through tracing the lineages of these dilemmas, we discuss some of the implications of these tensions for the practice of civic engagement and deliberation in a set of questions for this community of practitioner-scholars....

  19. Focal points 2010. Mobility with future - correct investment today. Environmental protection - investment restraint for agriculture? Engine for the climate policy: emission trading; Schwerpunkte 2010. Mobilitaet mit Zukunft - heute richtig investieren. Umweltschutz - Investitionshemmnis fuer die Landwirtschaft? Motor fuer die Klimapolitik: Der Emissionshandel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ittershagen, Martin; Mavromati, Fotini (comps.)

    2010-04-14

    The publication of the German Federal environmental agency on the focal points 2010 covers the following topics: impetus for an ecological-economic policy; mobility with future -best investment for today: more environmentally compatible investments in traffic infrastructure, better technology - more efficiency, missing charging of environmental cost induces wrong stimuli; environmental protection - investment restraints for agriculture? Engine for climate policy: emission trading; the Federal environmental agency: bridge between science and politics, the Federal environmental agency for mankind and environment; data and facts; publications of the employees.

  20. Bitcoin futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brøgger, Søren Bundgaard

    2018-01-01

    Med introduktionen af et futures-marked er Bitcoin-eksponering blevet tilgængelig for en bredere gruppe af investorer, som hidtil ikke har kunnet eller villet tilgå det underliggende marked for Bitcoin. Artiklen finder, at kontrakterne umiddelbart favoriserer spekulanter på bekostning af hedgers og...

  1. Iraq's future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, S.

    1998-01-01

    The large oil reserves of Iraq make it an important player in the long-term political energy world. This article briefly reviews the oil industry''s development and current status in Iraq and discusses the planned oil and gas field development. Finally there is a political discussion regarding the future of Iraq in terms of religion, race and neighbouring countries. (UK)

  2. Biomass burning: Combustion emissions, satellite imagery, and biogenic emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.; Cofer, W.R III; Rhinehart, R.P.; Cahoon, D.R. J.; Winstead, E.L.; Sebacher, S.; Sebacher, D.I.; Stocks, B.J.

    1991-01-01

    This chapter deals with two different, but related, aspects of biomass burning. The first part of the chapter deals with a technique to estimate the instantaneous emissions of trace gases produced by biomass burning using satellite imagery. The second part of the chapter concerns the recent discovery that burning results in significantly enhanced biogenic emissions of N 2 O, NO, and CH 4 . Hence, biomass burning has both an immediate and long-term impact on the production of trace gases to the atmosphere. The objective of this research is to better assess and quantify the role of this research is to better assess and quantify the role and impact of biomass as a driver for global change. It will be demonstrated that satellite imagery of fires may be used to estimate combustion emissions and may in the future be used to estimate the long-term postburn biogenic emissions of trace gases to the atmosphere

  3. Climate/chemistry feedbacks and biogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyle, John A; Warwick, Nicola; Yang, Xin; Young, Paul J; Zeng, Guang

    2007-07-15

    The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere is affected by anthropogenic emissions and is projected to change in the future. Model calculations indicate that the change in surface ozone at some locations could be large and have significant implications for human health. The calculations depend on the precise scenarios used for the anthropogenic emissions and on the details of the feedback processes included in the model. One important factor is how natural biogenic emissions will change in the future. We carry out a sensitivity calculation to address the possible increase in isoprene emissions consequent on increased surface temperature in a future climate. The changes in ozone are significant but depend crucially on the background chemical regime. In these calculations, we find that increased isoprene will increase ozone in the Northern Hemisphere but decrease ozone in the tropics. We also consider the role of bromine compounds in tropospheric chemistry and consider cases where, in a future climate, the impact of bromine could change.

  4. Positron Emission Tomography (PET)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welch, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) assesses biochemical processes in the living subject, producing images of function rather than form. Using PET, physicians are able to obtain not the anatomical information provided by other medical imaging techniques, but pictures of physiological activity. In metaphoric terms, traditional imaging methods supply a map of the body's roadways, its, anatomy; PET shows the traffic along those paths, its biochemistry. This document discusses the principles of PET, the radiopharmaceuticals in PET, PET research, clinical applications of PET, the cost of PET, training of individuals for PET, the role of the United States Department of Energy in PET, and the futures of PET. 22 figs.

  5. Positron Emission Tomography (PET)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welch, M.J.

    1990-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) assesses biochemical processes in the living subject, producing images of function rather than form. Using PET, physicians are able to obtain not the anatomical information provided by other medical imaging techniques, but pictures of physiological activity. In metaphoric terms, traditional imaging methods supply a map of the body's roadways, its, anatomy; PET shows the traffic along those paths, its biochemistry. This document discusses the principles of PET, the radiopharmaceuticals in PET, PET research, clinical applications of PET, the cost of PET, training of individuals for PET, the role of the United States Department of Energy in PET, and the futures of PET. 22 figs

  6. Energy strategies and greenhouse gas emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Nakicenovic, N.

    1992-01-01

    Concern about the availability of energy resources has given way in recent years to increasing awareness of the environmental impacts of energy production, conversion and use. Future energy policies must be based on limiting and even reducing future emissions of greenhouse gases. Consequently, a number of national carbon dioxide reduction plans have been announced, which are aimed at stabilizing and in some cases even reducing further emissions.

  7. Robot Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Anja; Grindsted Nielsen, Sally; Jochum, Elizabeth Ann

    Robots are increasingly used in health care settings, e.g., as homecare assistants and personal companions. One challenge for personal robots in the home is acceptance. We describe an innovative approach to influencing the acceptance of care robots using theatrical performance. Live performance...... is a useful testbed for developing and evaluating what makes robots expressive; it is also a useful platform for designing robot behaviors and dialogue that result in believable characters. Therefore theatre is a valuable testbed for studying human-robot interaction (HRI). We investigate how audiences...... perceive social robots interacting with humans in a future care scenario through a scripted performance. We discuss our methods and initial findings, and outline future work....

  8. Drawing Futures

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Drawing Futures brings together international designers and artists for speculations in contemporary drawing for art and architecture. Despite numerous developments in technological manufacture and computational design that provide new grounds for designers, the act of drawing still plays a central role as a vehicle for speculation. There is a rich and long history of drawing tied to innovations in technology as well as to revolutions in our philosophical understanding of the world. In re...

  9. Future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, R.J. Jr.

    2004-01-01

    Topics presented concerning the future developments in risk analysis are: safety goals, US severe accident policy, code developments, research programs, analyses and operation action, linking with the deterministic analyses. Principle consideration in risk is defined as protection of both general population, and nearby residents. The principal goal should be consistent with risk of other man-caused activities, the cost benefit after minimum safety levels are achieved, and proportional to benefits to be gained

  10. Elemental composition of current automotive braking materials and derived air emission factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hulskotte, J.H.J.; Roskam, G.D.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.

    2014-01-01

    Wear-related PM emissions are an important constituent of total PM emissions from road transport. Due to ongoing (further) exhaust emission reduction wear emissions may become the dominant PM source from road transport in the near future. The chemical composition of the wear emissions is crucial

  11. Future of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, John

    2005-01-01

    Australia has one of the most cost-effective energy conversion and delivery systems in the world. We are blessed with abundant, high-quality fossil fuels consisting mainly of coal, gas and (diminishing) oil resources. However, this past blessing is also a future curse as this fuel mix, coupled with limits to hydroelectric growth and no nuclear generation capacity, has endowed Australia with one of the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of GDP in the developed world (currently 43 per cent above the International Energy Agency average). This prompted Claude Mandil, head of the IEA, to observe: 'Environmental sustainability represent Australia's greatest energy challenge, with high and growing carbon dioxide emissions.' The challenge for Australia is how to make the massive cuts in GHG emissions required to minimise our world trade risks (which will come at a cost, and put pressure on our energy cost-effectiveness) while maintaining an internationally competitive energy sector. This challenge is exacerbated by a healthy national growth rate which will be accompanied by at least a 50 per cent growth in energy demand by 2020, with a doubling by 2050. Electricity industry projections predict an investment in new generation capacity well in excess of $30 billion to keep up with demand over the next two decades. The stark reality is that if we con tinue to supply and use energy the way we do now, we may as well forget about stabilising our GHG emissions from the energy sector, let alone reducing them in the future. This urgent situation presents a huge opportunity for the introduction of new and improved low-emission energy conversion technologies and demand management systems that vastly reduce GHG emissions per unit of productivity - in fact, an opportunity to transform Australia's energy sector to levels of innovation, social acceptance and environmental performance that has no precedent in this country. We have little choice other than to make a start. Are

  12. Ninth wood energy symposium - Reduction of fine-dust emissions and power generation as part of a future power supply system; 9. Holzenergie-Symposium - Feinstaubminderung und Stromerzeugung im Rahmen der zukuenftigen Energieversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nussbaumer, T. (ed.)

    2006-07-01

    This comprehensive report is published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE). A total of fourteen papers were presented at the symposium on the following subjects: Federal Action-Plan in the wood-firing area and emission limits, Fair-Firing - an Action Plan for the prevention of increased emissions and illegal incineration of wastes, fine-dust from wood-fired systems in comparison with diesel soot from the health point of view, practical experience with low-particle, pellets-fired systems, basics and technologies for the precipitation of fine-dust and the influence of particle characteristics and mode of operation as well as two papers on the development of electrical precipitators for wood-fired systems from 200 kW upwards and the practical experience gained with them. Further, papers are presented that deal with small-size electrostatic precipitators, flameless combustion for NO{sub x} reduction and modern pellets technology. The potential and economic viability of wood fuels for the generation of electricity are discussed and a 7 MW{sub e} wood-fired power station is looked at. Finally, the options open for providing a secure supply of energy in Europe are discussed and the role to be played by biomass is examined.

  13. Transportation Emissions: some basics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontovas, Christos A.; Psaraftis, Harilaos N.

    2016-01-01

    Transportation is the backbone of international trade and a key engine driving globalization. However, there is growing concern that the Earth’s atmospheric composition is being altered by human activities, including transportation, which can lead to climate change. Air pollution from transportat...... of the energy efficiency gap and examines why governments and companies may forego cost-effective investments in energy efficiency, even though they could significantly reduce energy consumption at a lower cost....... transportation and especially carbon dioxide emissions are at the center stage of discussion by the world community through various international treaties, such as the Kyoto Protocol. The transportation sector also emits non-CO2 pollutants that have important effects on air quality, climate, and public health....... The main purpose of this chapter is to introduce some basic concepts that are relevant in the quest of green transportation logistics. First, we present the basics of estimating emissions from transportation activities, the current statistics and future trends, as well as the total impact of air emissions...

  14. Future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Croce, A.

    1991-01-01

    According to George Woodwell, founder of the Woods Hole Research Center, due the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and accelerated respiration, the net annual increase of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, to the 750 billion tonnes already present in the earth's atmosphere, is in the order of 3 to 5 billion tonnes. Around the world, scientists, investigating the probable effects of this increase on the earth's future climate, are now formulating coupled air and ocean current models which take account of water temperature and salinity dependent carbon dioxide exchange mechanisms acting between the atmosphere and deep layers of ocean waters

  15. Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paasonen, Pauli; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Klimont, Zbigniew; Visschedijk, Antoon; Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C.; Amann, Markus

    2016-06-01

    Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa), coke production (Russia and China), and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation) scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol-cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response to tightening

  16. Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Paasonen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa, coke production (Russia and China, and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol–cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response

  17. Automated Vehicle Regulation: An Energy and Emissions Perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Aaron

    2016-05-18

    This presentation provides a summary of the current automated vehicles polices in the United States and how they related to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The presentation then looks at future automated vehicle trends that will increase and reduce GHG emissions and what current policies utilized in other areas of law could be adapted for automated vehicle GHG emissions.

  18. Positron emission tomography in oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1988-01-01

    This report describes the current and potential uses of positron emission tomography in clinical medicine and research related to oncology. Assessment will be possible of metabolism and physiology of tumors and their effects on adjacent tissues. Specific probes are likely to be developed for target sites on tumors, including monoclonal antibodies and specific growth factors that recognize tumors. To date, most oncological applications of positron emission tomography tracers have been qualitative; in the future, quantitative metabolic measurements should aid in the evaluation of tumor biology and response to treatment

  19. The future of fossil fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coward, H. (ed.) (Calgary Institute for the Humanities, Calgary, AB (Canada))

    1992-01-01

    This book contains six chapters by different authors on the topics of our current and future use of fossil fuel. The three chapters in the first part of the book deal with the scientific analysis of the current situation and Part Two covers future possibilities from the perspectives of population growth, ethical and economic considerations. The chapters are: earth rhythms through out geological time; the global carbon-cycle, including the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere; fossil fuels-global resources; energy conservation and energy alternatives; fossil fuels and future generations; and reducing global carbon emissions: developed versus developing countries. These are the proceedings of the symposium entitled 'The future of fossil fuel', which was cosponsored by the Royal Society of Canada and the University of Calgary. 67 refs., 42 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Future Talks,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Defeyt

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available La conservation des matériaux modernes et les difficultés qui la caractérisent étaient l’objet du colloque international Future Talks, organisé par Die Neue Sammlung, The International Design Museum, les 22 et 23 octobre 2009 à Munich. Conservateurs-restaurateurs spécialisés, représentants des  institutions muséales les plus prestigieuses d’Europe et d’outre-Atlantique ainsi que chercheurs en sciences appliquées y ont présenté leurs travaux et recherches. En matière de design, d’art moderne e...

  1. An explanation of carbon emission markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After having outlined the necessity to drastically reduce anthropic carbon emissions, and discussed how to associate standards, taxes and quota markets, the authors describe how carbon emission markets have emerged: the Kyoto protocol, the emission trade scheme (ETS) of the European Union, other carbon markets (existing or in preparation). They introduce and present four pillars of carbon emission markets: the allocation process, the reliability of emission measurement and control, market records and transparency, and introduction of flexibility. They examine the possibility of success in the development of a greenhouse gas emission market. The authors discuss the problems raised by a design of carbon markets by government and their use by private actors, how to connect existing or future regional carbon markets, the integration of forest and agriculture through new compensatory mechanisms, how to face carbon leaks by widening carbon markets

  2. Future Dead

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabra, Jakob Borrits

    Today the dying and the bereaved attend memorialization both online and offline. Cemeteries, urns, coffins, graves, memorials, monuments, websites, social network sites, applications and software services, form technologies that are influenced by discourse, culture, public, professional and econo......Today the dying and the bereaved attend memorialization both online and offline. Cemeteries, urns, coffins, graves, memorials, monuments, websites, social network sites, applications and software services, form technologies that are influenced by discourse, culture, public, professional...... and economic power. They constitute parts of an intricately weaved and interrelated network of practices and designs dealing with death, mourning, memorialization and remembrance. The paper presents findings from two research projects; the 2015 exhibition Death: The Human Experience at Bristol Museum and Art...... Gallery (bristolmuseums.org.uk) and the Future Cemetery Design Competition 2016 held by the Centre for Death and Society and Arnos Vale Cemetery in Bristol (futurecemetery.org). Grounded in sociological theory on death and memorialization technologies, ethnographic fieldwork and survey results (n=348...

  3. Future food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlqvist, Mark L

    2016-12-01

    Food systems have changed markedly with human settlement and agriculture, industrialisation, trade, migration and now the digital age. Throughout these transitions, there has been a progressive population explosion and net ecosystem loss and degradation. Climate change now gathers pace, exacerbated by ecological dysfunction. Our health status has been challenged by a developing people-environment mismatch. We have regarded ecological conquest and innovative technology as solutions, but have not understood how ecologically dependent and integrated we are. We are ecological creatures interfaced by our sensoriness, microbiomes, shared regulatory (endocrine) mechanisms, immune system, biorhythms and nutritional pathways. Many of us are 'nature-deprived'. We now suffer what might be termed ecological health disorders (EHD). If there were less of us, nature's resilience might cope, but more than 9 billion people by 2050 is probably an intolerable demand on the planet. Future food must increasingly take into account the pressures on ecosystem-dependent food systems, with foods probably less biodiverse, although eating in this way allows optimal health; energy dysequilibrium with less physical activity and foods inappropriately energy dense; and less socially-conducive food habits. 'Personalised Nutrition', with extensive and resource-demanding nutrigenomic, metabolomic and microbiomic data may provide partial health solutions in clinical settings, but not be justified for ethical, risk management or sustainability reasons in public health. The globally prevalent multidimensional malnutritional problems of food insecurity, quality and equity require local, regional and global action to prevent further ecosystem degradation as well as to educate, provide sustainable livelihoods and encourage respectful social discourse and practice about the role of food.

  4. Future climate. Engineering solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferdinand, J.F.; Hagedorn-Rasmussen, P.; Fonnesbech, B.

    2009-09-15

    Future Climate Engineering Solutions - Joint Report is the common output and a documentation of more than 1 year's effort by 13 engineering associations - in 12 countries - to demonstrate how technologies can combat climate change. The report consists of three parts: Summaries of 10 national climate plans and technology prospects, 5 Key Common Findings, and a Climate Call from Engineers to create a new global climate treaty. The basic assumption of the project is recognition that GHG emissions, and their concentration in the atmosphere, must be reduced to a sustainable level. The project definition of a sustainable level is equivalent to the best-case stabilisation scenario which was presented in the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whereby the global mean temperature is most likely to stabilise at 2.0-2.4 deg. C. The Future Climate website www.futureclimate.info holds more information about the project, including possibility to download project material, including the full national climate plans.

  5. Emission Inventory for Fugitive Emissions in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plejdrup, Marlene Schmidt; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Nielsen, Malene

    This report presents the methodology and data used in the Danish inventory of fugitive emissions from fuels for the years until 2007. The inventory of fugitive emissions includes CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, dioxin, PAH and particulate matter. In 2007 the total Danish emission of greenhouse...... gasses was 66 641 Gg CO2-eqvivalents. Fugitive emissions from fuels account for 496 Gg CO2-eqvivalents or approximately 1 %. The major part of the fugitive emissions are emitted as CO2 (74 %) due to flaring of oil and gas. The major source of fugitive CH4 emission is extraction of oil and gas...... in the North Sea, refining of oil and loading of oil onto ships both offshore and onshore. The fugitive emissions of NMVOC originate for the major part from extraction, loading of ships, transmission and distribution of oil and to a much lesser degree from natural gas and fugitive emissions from gas stations...

  6. Legislators Urge Carbon Emissions Cuts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Mohi

    2007-02-01

    Legislators from the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitting countries met on 14-15 February in Washington, D.C., to discuss the future of the global climate and strategies to mitigate temperature increases resulting from global warming. The world faces a ``double challenge-how to reduce damaging carbon emissions while still meeting the energy demand that the world's poor need to escape poverty,'' said World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz during a keynote talk.

  7. Criteria Air Emissions Trends

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Air Emissions Trends site provides national trends of criteria pollutant and precursor emissions data based on the the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) from...

  8. The utility of space-based CO2 emission mapping for monitoring emissions from cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oda, T.; Lauvaux, T.; Roman, M. O.; Wang, Z.; Tang, J.; Rao, P.

    2016-12-01

    Cities are responsible for more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions in the world and their magnitude is rapidly changing in response to economic activities and emission reduction efforts. The science community is expected to provide a tool to monitor these emissions and guide practical emission management. When applying a top-down inversion to a city, the availability of detailed emission inventory is one of limiting factor other than atmospheric data. With a hope of getting more CO2 data collected by ongoing and future CO2 satellites (e.g. NASA's OCO2/OCO3), we started prototyping the use of satellite data to help constraining city emissions. The development of fine-grained emission dataset, which will be a prior for inversion, requires time-intensive labor and often difficult to update on annual basis. We made an attempt to improve the 1 km resolution fossil fuel emission fields taken from global nightlight-based emission model ODIAC using a 30m resolution impervious surface data. Impervious data is a good indicator of emitting areas in cities (e.g. building/road vs. urban vegetation) and should inform fine-scale emission source spatial structures. We implemented inversions using two different prior emissions (1km ODIAC emission field and the improved 30m emission field) and compared to the control inversion case where a fine-grained emission data was used. We confirmed that the use of two satellite-based emission fields both yield comparable emission estimates to the control. Also, the improved results from the run with the 30m emission field relative to the 1km ODIAC case, suggested that while temporal variations are captured by atmospheric inversions (emissions are only provided on monthly basis), emission spatial structures remain as a key information to constrain emission spatial distributions at a very fine spatial scale. The improved emission field can be also used to implement the full characterization of error structures, which is not currently

  9. Positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolwig, T.G.; Haunsoe, S.; Dahlgaard Hove, J.; Hesse, B.; Hoejgard, L.; Jensen, M.; Paulson, O.B.; Hastrup Svendsen, J.; Soelvsten Soerensen, S.

    1994-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) is a method for quantitative imaging of regional physiological and biochemical parameters. Positron emitting radioactive isotopes can be produced by a cyclotron, eg. the biologically important carbon ( 11 C), oxygen ( 15 O), and nitrogen ( 13 N) elements. With the tomographic principles of the PET scanner the quantitative distribution of the administered isotopes can be determined and images can be provided as well as dynamic information on blood flow, metabolism and receptor function. In neurology PET has been used for investigations on numerous physiological processes in the brain: circulation, metabolism and receptor studies. In Parkinson's disease PET studies have been able to localize the pathology specifically, and in early stroke PET technique can outline focal areas with living but non-functioning cells, and this could make it possible to intervene in this early state. With positron emission tomography a quantitative evaluation of myocardial blood flow, glucose and fatty acid metabolism can be made as well as combined assessments of blood flow and metabolism. Combined studies of blood flow and metabolism can determine whether myocardial segments with abnormal motility consist of necrotic or viable tissue, thereby delineating effects of revascularisation. In the future it will probably be possible to characterize the myocardial receptor status in different cardiac diseases. The PET technique is used in oncology for clinical as well as more basic research on tumor perfusion and metabolism. Further, tumor uptake of positron labelled cytotoxic drugs might predict the clinical benefit of treatment. (au) (19 refs.)

  10. Positron emission tomography. Positronemisionstomografi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolwig, T.G.; Haunsoe, S.; Dahlgaard Hove, J.; Hesse, B.; Hoejgard, L.; Jensen, M.; Paulson, O.B.; Hastrup Svendsen, J.; Soelvsten Soerensen, S.

    1994-10-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) is a method for quantitative imaging of regional physiological and biochemical parameters. Positron emitting radioactive isotopes can be produced by a cyclotron, eg. the biologically important carbon ([sup 11]C), oxygen ([sup 15]O), and nitrogen ([sup 13]N) elements. With the tomographic principles of the PET scanner the quantitative distribution of the administered isotopes can be determined and images can be provided as well as dynamic information on blood flow, metabolism and receptor function. In neurology PET has been used for investigations on numerous physiological processes in the brain: circulation, metabolism and receptor studies. In Parkinson's disease PET studies have been able to localize the pathology specifically, and in early stroke PET technique can outline focal areas with living but non-functioning cells, and this could make it possible to intervene in this early state. With positron emission tomography a quantitative evaluation of myocardial blood flow, glucose and fatty acid metabolism can be made as well as combined assessments of blood flow and metabolism. Combined studies of blood flow and metabolism can determine whether myocardial segments with abnormal motility consist of necrotic or viable tissue, thereby delineating effects of revascularisation. In the future it will probably be possible to characterize the myocardial receptor status in different cardiac diseases. The PET technique is used in oncology for clinical as well as more basic research on tumor perfusion and metabolism. Further, tumor uptake of positron labelled cytotoxic drugs might predict the clinical benefit of treatment. (au) (19 refs.).

  11. An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980─2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Yan

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available We developed a new emission inventory for Asia (Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS Version 1.1 for the period 1980–2020. REAS is the first inventory to integrate historical, present, and future emissions in Asia on the basis of a consistent methodology. We present here emissions in 2000, historical emissions for 1980–2003, and projected emissions for 2010 and 2020 of SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from fuel combustion and industrial sources. Total energy consumption in Asia more than doubled between 1980 and 2003, causing a rapid growth in Asian emissions, by 28% for BC, 30% for OC, 64% for CO, 108% for NMVOC, 119% for SO2, and 176% for NOx. In particular, Chinese NOx emissions showed a marked increase of 280% over 1980 levels, and growth in emissions since 2000 has been extremely high. These increases in China were mainly caused by increases in coal combustion in the power plants and industrial sectors. NMVOC emissions also rapidly increased because of growth in the use of automobiles, solvents, and paints. By contrast, BC, OC, and CO emissions in China showed decreasing trends from 1996 to 2000 because of a reduction in the use of biofuels and coal in the domestic and industry sectors. However, since 2000, Chinese emissions of these species have begun to increase. Thus, the emissions of air pollutants in Asian countries (especially China showed large temporal variations from 1980–2003. Future emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Asian countries were projected by emission scenarios and from emissions in 2000. For China, we developed three emission scenarios: PSC (policy success case, REF (reference case, and PFC (policy failure case. In the 2020 REF scenario, Asian total emissions of SO2, NOx, and NMVOC were projected to increase substantially by 22%, 44%, and 99%, respectively, over 2000 levels. The 2020 REF scenario showed a modest increase in CO (12%, a lesser increase in BC (1%, and a slight decrease in

  12. Biogenic emissions of isoprenoids and NO in China and comparison to anthropogenic emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tie Xuexi; Li Guohui; Ying, Zhuming; Guenther, Alex; Madronich, Sasha

    2006-01-01

    northeastern and southern China, there are relatively large biogenic emissions of isoprenoids, leading to an important impact on the ozone production in these regions. Furthermore, the emissions of isoprenoids are highest during summer and noontime, which correlates to the peak of ozone production period. For example, the ratio between summer and winter for the emissions of isoprenoids is about 15 in China. As a result, the biogenic emissions of isoprenoids are significantly larger than the anthropogenic emissions of VOCs in China during daytime in summer. Biogenic NO emissions are mostly produced by agricultural soils which co-exist with large populations and human activity. As a result, the biogenic emissions of NO are mostly overlapped with the anthropogenic emissions of NO, leading to the enhancement in NO concentrations in the high anthropogenic NO emission regions. Finally, the future emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes over China are estimated. The results show that the future biogenic emissions may increase significantly due to land cover changes in central eastern China, which could have a very important impact on ozone formation in this region. However, these estimates are highly uncertain and are presented as a potential scenario to show the importance of possible changes of biogenic emissions in China

  13. Biogenic emissions of isoprenoids and NO in China and comparison to anthropogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tie, Xuexi; Li, Guohui; Ying, Zhuming; Guenther, Alex; Madronich, Sasha

    2006-12-01

    northeastern and southern China, there are relatively large biogenic emissions of isoprenoids, leading to an important impact on the ozone production in these regions. Furthermore, the emissions of isoprenoids are highest during summer and noontime, which correlates to the peak of ozone production period. For example, the ratio between summer and winter for the emissions of isoprenoids is about 15 in China. As a result, the biogenic emissions of isoprenoids are significantly larger than the anthropogenic emissions of VOCs in China during daytime in summer. Biogenic NO emissions are mostly produced by agricultural soils which co-exist with large populations and human activity. As a result, the biogenic emissions of NO are mostly overlapped with the anthropogenic emissions of NO, leading to the enhancement in NO concentrations in the high anthropogenic NO emission regions. Finally, the future emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes over China are estimated. The results show that the future biogenic emissions may increase significantly due to land cover changes in central eastern China, which could have a very important impact on ozone formation in this region. However, these estimates are highly uncertain and are presented as a potential scenario to show the importance of possible changes of biogenic emissions in China.

  14. Understanding Emissions in East Asia - The KORUS 2015 Emissions Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, J. H.; Kim, Y.; Park, R.; Choi, Y.; Simpson, I. J.; Emmons, L. K.; Streets, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    The air quality over Northeast Asia have been deteriorated for decades due to high population and energy use in the region. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse sometimes. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are much higher to effectively protect public health and ecosystems. Two aircraft filed campaigns targeting year 2016, MAPS-Seoul and KORUS-AQ, have been organized to study the air quality of over Korea and East Asia relating to chemical evolution, emission inventories, trans-boundary contribution, and satellite application. We developed a new East-Asia emissions inventory, named KORUS2015, based on NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment), in support of the filed campaigns. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, PM10, and PM2.5. Since the KORUS2015 emissions framework was developed using the integrated climate and air quality assessment modeling framework (i.e. GAINS) and is fully connected with the comprehensive emission processing/modeling systems (i.e. SMOKE, KU-EPS, and MEGAN), it can be effectively used to support atmospheric field campaigns for science and policy. During the field campaigns, we are providing modeling emissions inventory to participating air quality models, such as CMAQ, WRF-Chem, CAMx, GEOS-Chem, MOZART, for forecasting and post-analysis modes. Based on initial assessment of those results, we are improving our emissions, such as VOC speciation, biogenic VOCs modeling. From the 2nditeration between emissions and modeling/measurement, further analysis results will be presented at the conference. Acknowledgements : This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Climate Change

  15. The sectoral trends of multigas emissions inventory of India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, A.; Shukla, P.R.; Kapshe, M.

    2006-01-01

    as regional distribution patterns. Coal consumption in power sector dominates CO2 and SO2 emissions, while power and road transport equally contribute to NOX emissions. Rice cultivation and livestock-related emissions from the agriculture sector dominate CH4 emissions, while synthetic fertilizer use...... dominance from biomass burning. Particulate emissions are dominated by biomass burning (residential sector), road transport and coal combustion in large plants. These varied emission patterns provide interesting policy links and disjoints, such as-which and where mitigation flexibility for the Kyoto gases......, exploring co-benefits Of CO2 and SO2 mitigation, and technology and development pathway dependence of emissions. The'present inventory assessment is a pointer to the future emission pathways for India wherein local air pollutant and GHG emissions, although connected, may not move in synchronization...

  16. Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennetzen, Eskild Hohlmann; Smith, Pete; Porter, John Roy

    2016-01-01

    Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we...... estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land-use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya-Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements...... allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural...

  17. Life cycle emissions from renewable energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.; Watkiss, P.; Thorpe, T.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology used in the ETSU review, together with the detailed results for three of the technologies studied: wind turbines, photovoltaic systems and small, stand-alone solar thermal systems. These emissions are then compared with those calculated for both other renewables and fossil fuel technology on a similar life cycle basis. The life cycle emissions associated with renewable energy technology vary considerably. They are lowest for those technologies where the renewable resource has been concentrated in some way (e.g. over distance in the case of wind and hydro, or over time in the case of energy crops). Wind turbines have amongst the lowest emissions of all renewables and are lower than those for fossil fuel generation, often by over an order of magnitude. Photovoltaics and solar thermal systems have the highest life cycle emissions of all the renewable energy technologies under review. However, their emissions of most pollutants are also much lower than those associated with fossil fuel technologies. In addition, the emissions associated with PV are likely to fall further in the future as the conversion efficiency of PV cells increases and manufacturing technology switches to thin film technologies, which are less energy intensive. Combining the assessments of life cycle emissions of renewables with predictions made by the World Energy Council (WEC) of their future deployment has allowed estimates to be made of amount by which renewables could reduce the future global emissions of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. It estimated that under the WEC's 'Ecologically Driven' scenario, renewables might lead to significant reductions of between 3650 and 8375 Mt in annual CO 2 emissions depending on the fossil fuel technology they are assumed to displace. (author)

  18. Mercury emission from crematories in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Takaoka

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic sources of mercury emissions have a significant impact on global pollution. Therefore, finding uncharacterised sources and assessing the emissions from these sources are important. However, limited data are available worldwide on mercury emissions from crematories. In Japan, 99.9% of dead bodies are cremated, which is the highest percentage in the world, and more than 1600 crematories are in operation. We thus focused on emissions from crematories in Japan. The number of targeted facilities was seven, and we used continuous emission monitoring to measure the mercury concentrations and investigate mercury behaviour. The total mercury concentrations in stack gases were a few μg/Nm3 (normal cubic meters. Considering the time profile of mercury and its species in cremations, the findings confirmed that the mercury in stack gas originated from dental amalgam. The amount of mercury emissions was calculated using the total concentration and gas flow rate. Furthermore, the annual amount of mercury emission from crematories in Japan was estimated by using the total number of corpses. The emission amount was considerably lower than that estimated in the United Kingdom. From statistical analyses on population demographics and measurements, future total emissions from crematories were also predicted. As a result, the amount of mercury emitted by crematories will likely increase by 2.6-fold from 2007 to 2037.

  19. Crafting our energy future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van Schagen, Frank

    2005-01-01

    The new Asia-Pacific Greenhouse Agreement offers Australia a great opportunity to take full advantage of both its brains and its energy resources. The energy debate is often, simplistically, characterised as coal versus nuclear, or non-renewables versus renewables. In reality we will need a mix of energy sources to power our economy, cleanly, into the future. The issues are cost, environmental protection, national security, skills and security of energy supply. If we wish our economy to continue growing at present rates, we will need 50 per cent more energy in 2030 than we use today - and it is not too soon to start planning how we will produce it. We have around 500 years' supply of coal resources at present rates of usage. Power generation from coal is capable of achieving zero, or near zero, carbon emissions using technologies such as oxy-fuel combustion or IGCC (integrated gasification combined cycle). In both, C0 2 can be captured and stored underground. The greenhouse debate has revived interest in nuclear power generation. The cost of generating electricity with nuclear is similar to clean coal. However, we would have to start a nuclear power industry from a very small base, buying costly generation plant and training or importing an entire, highly-skilled workforce, in competition with other countries. Waste disposal is an issue for both coal and nuclear. For coal, the main option is carbon capture and its storage in deep saline aquifers. This technology is well understood and widely used by the oil and gas industry but we have to determine the most suitable places and techniques, and we have to build the infrastructure. Nuclear waste storage is also well-understood. Which technology we choose depends on an evaluation of both short and long term risks for the community and environment. One thing that Australia must get right is the economics. The wrong decision will cost us jobs, if not entire industries and regions. While renewables like solar and wind are

  20. Growing America's Energy Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-06-01

    The emerging U.S. bioenergy industry provides a secure and growing supply of transportation fuels, biopower, and bioproducts produced from a range of abundant, renewable biomass resources. Bioenergy can help ensure a secure, sustainable, and economically sound future by reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, developing domestic clean energy sources, and generating domestic green jobs. Bioenergy can also help address growing concerns about climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to create a healthier environment for current and future generations.

  1. CCS development for a low carbon future

    OpenAIRE

    Selosse, Sandrine; Garcia, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    Giving the challenge of mitigating the effects of climate change and so reducing carbon emissions, this study highlights the possible technological trajectories in a future climate regime and particularly the role of carbon capture and storage. This research is developed with TIAM-FR, a bottom-up optimization model describing the world energy system expressed by regions and sectors in great detail of current and future technologies.

  2. Biofuels, vehicle emissions, and urban air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallington, Timothy J; Anderson, James E; Kurtz, Eric M; Tennison, Paul J

    2016-07-18

    Increased biofuel content in automotive fuels impacts vehicle tailpipe emissions via two mechanisms: fuel chemistry and engine calibration. Fuel chemistry effects are generally well recognized, while engine calibration effects are not. It is important that investigations of the impact of biofuels on vehicle emissions consider the impact of engine calibration effects and are conducted using vehicles designed to operate using such fuels. We report the results of emission measurements from a Ford F-350 fueled with either fossil diesel or a biodiesel surrogate (butyl nonanoate) and demonstrate the critical influence of engine calibration on NOx emissions. Using the production calibration the emissions of NOx were higher with the biodiesel fuel. Using an adjusted calibration (maintaining equivalent exhaust oxygen concentration to that of the fossil diesel at the same conditions by adjusting injected fuel quantities) the emissions of NOx were unchanged, or lower, with biodiesel fuel. For ethanol, a review of the literature data addressing the impact of ethanol blend levels (E0-E85) on emissions from gasoline light-duty vehicles in the U.S. is presented. The available data suggest that emissions of NOx, non-methane hydrocarbons, particulate matter (PM), and mobile source air toxics (compounds known, or suspected, to cause serious health impacts) from modern gasoline and diesel vehicles are not adversely affected by increased biofuel content over the range for which the vehicles are designed to operate. Future increases in biofuel content when accomplished in concert with changes in engine design and calibration for new vehicles should not result in problematic increases in emissions impacting urban air quality and may in fact facilitate future required emissions reductions. A systems perspective (fuel and vehicle) is needed to fully understand, and optimize, the benefits of biofuels when blended into gasoline and diesel.

  3. Determinants and predictability of global wildfire emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Knorr

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Biomass burning is one of the largest sources of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols globally. These emissions have a major impact on the radiative balance of the atmosphere and on air quality, and are thus of significant scientific and societal interest. Several datasets have been developed that quantify those emissions on a global grid and offered to the atmospheric modelling community. However, no study has yet attempted to systematically quantify the dependence of the inferred pyrogenic emissions on underlying assumptions and input data. Such a sensitivity study is needed for understanding how well we can currently model those emissions and what the factors are that contribute to uncertainties in those emission estimates.

    Here, we combine various satellite-derived burned area products, a terrestrial ecosystem model to simulate fuel loads and the effect of fire on ecosystem dynamics, a model of fuel combustion, and various emission models that relate combusted biomass to the emission of various trace gases and aerosols. We carry out simulations with varying parameters for combustion completeness and fuel decomposition rates within published estimates, four different emissions models and three different global burned-area products. We find that variations in combustion completeness and simulated fuel loads have the largest impact on simulated global emissions for most species, except for some with highly uncertain emission factors. Variation in burned-area estimates also contribute considerably to emission uncertainties. We conclude that global models urgently need more field-based data for better parameterisation of combustion completeness and validation of simulated fuel loads, and that further validation and improvement of burned area information is necessary for accurately modelling global wildfire emissions. The results are important for chemical transport modelling studies, and for simulations of biomass burning impacts on the

  4. 40 CFR 1054.715 - How do I bank emission credits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Averaging, Banking, and Trading for Certification § 1054.715 How do I bank emission credits? (a) Banking is... future model years for averaging or trading. You may use banked emission credits only within the...

  5. UW Inventory of Freight Emissions (WIFE3) heavy duty diesel vehicle web calculator methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This document serves as an overview and technical documentation for the University of Wisconsin Inventory of : Freight Emissions (WIFE3) calculator. The WIFE3 web calculator rapidly estimates future heavy duty diesel : vehicle (HDDV) roadway emission...

  6. Ion cyclotron emission by spontaneous emission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Da Costa, O. [Commission of the European Communities, Abingdon (United Kingdom). JET Joint Undertaking; Gresillon, D. [Ecole Polytechnique, 91 - Palaiseau (France). Lab. de Physique des Milieux Ionises

    1994-07-01

    The goal of the study is to examine whether the spontaneous emission can account for ICE (ion cyclotron emission) experimental results, or part of them. A straightforward approach to plasma emission is chosen, investigating the near equilibrium wave radiation by gyrating ions, and thus building from the majority and fast fusion ions the plasma fluctuations and emission on the fast magnetoacoustic or compressional Alfven wave mode in the IC frequency range. Similarities with the ICE experiments are shown: the emission temperature in the presence of fast ions (even in a very small amount), the strong fast ion emission increase with the harmonic, the fine double-line splitting of each peak, the linear but not proportional increase of the peak width with the harmonic. 3 refs., 2 figs.

  7. Explosive growth in African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liousse, C; Rosset, R; Assamoi, E; Criqui, P; Granier, C

    2014-01-01

    Emissions of gases and particles from the combustion of fossil fuels and biofuels in Africa are expected to increase significantly in the near future due to the rapid growth of African cities and megacities. There is currently no regional emissions inventory that provides estimates of anthropogenic combustion for the African continent. This work provides a quantification of the evolution of African combustion emissions from 2005 to 2030, using a bottom-up method. This inventory predicts very large increases in black carbon, organic carbon, CO, NO x , SO 2 and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions if no emission regulations are implemented. This paper discusses the effectiveness of scenarios involving certain fuels, specific to Africa in each activity sector and each region (western, eastern, northern and southern Africa), to reduce the emissions. The estimated trends in African emissions are consistent with emissions provided by global inventories, but they display a larger range of values. African combustion emissions contributed significantly to global emissions in 2005. This contribution will increase more significantly by 2030: organic carbon emissions will for example make up 50% of the global emissions in 2030. Furthermore, we show that the magnitude of African anthropogenic emissions could be similar to African biomass burning emissions around 2030. (paper)

  8. Quantifying CO2 Emissions From Individual Power Plants From Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassar, Ray; Hill, Timothy G.; McLinden, Chris A.; Wunch, Debra; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Crisp, David

    2017-10-01

    In order to better manage anthropogenic CO2 emissions, improved methods of quantifying emissions are needed at all spatial scales from the national level down to the facility level. Although the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite was not designed for monitoring power plant emissions, we show that in some cases, CO2 observations from OCO-2 can be used to quantify daily CO2 emissions from individual middle- to large-sized coal power plants by fitting the data to plume model simulations. Emission estimates for U.S. power plants are within 1-17% of reported daily emission values, enabling application of the approach to international sites that lack detailed emission information. This affirms that a constellation of future CO2 imaging satellites, optimized for point sources, could monitor emissions from individual power plants to support the implementation of climate policies.

  9. Marine nitrous oxide emissions: An unknown liability for the international water sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Short, Michael D.; Peters, Gregory M.; Peirson, William L.; Ashbolt, Nicholas J.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • IPCC methodology for indirect marine nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions does not exist. • The water sector has an unknown N 2 O emissions liability from marine sewage disposal. • We model global sewage-nitrogen (N) emissions to coastal oceans during 1970–2050. • Emission factors for marine N 2 O will enable water sector N 2 O emissions accounting. • Industry benefits will include future revenue streams and better N emissions policy. -- Abstract: Reliable estimates of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential for setting effective climate policy at both the sector and national level. Current IPCC Guidelines for calculating nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from sewage management are both highly uncertain and incomplete; a major methodological gap relates to the calculation of indirect N 2 O emissions from sewage disposed to marine environments. Here we apply a novel approach to estimate past and future global sewage-nitrogen emissions to coastal oceans and the potential marine N 2 O emissions linked to this nitrogen source. Then, by estimating the future cost associated with this largely uncharacterized emission source, we demonstrate the industry significance of developing a methodology for estimating N 2 O emissions from marine receiving environments. The capacity to accurately estimate, monitor and report GHG emissions has important consequences for informing future policy decisions regarding both mitigation and adaptation. A robust N 2 O emissions estimation methodology for sewage-nitrogen disposed to coastal oceans will allow the international water sector to more accurately and comprehensively inventory its N 2 O emissions. This will in turn allow for proper accounting of related future emissions liabilities while also enabling the sector to capitalize on any future economic returns linked to this source – providing much-needed capital to support the sector's future infrastructure and climate change adaptation challenges

  10. Vehicle Emissions Risk Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibrahem, L.G.

    2004-01-01

    Vehicle emissions are considered as a main source for air pollution. Emissions regulation is now well developed in most countries to meet cleaner air quality. Reducing emissions by using cleaner fuels, which meet certain specification, is not enough to get cleaner air, yet the vehicle technology is not improved. Here we will outline the following: - development in fuel specification and emissions regulation. main facts linking vehicle emissions, fuel properties and air quality. catalytic converter technology. Emissions sources: In modem cities, vehicle traffic is potentially a major source of emissions. However sometimes other sources of emissions from industry and other stationary sources can be equally important and include emissions that are of greater toxicity than those from vehicles

  11. Positron Computed Tomography: Current State, Clinical Results and Future Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schelbert, H. R.; Phelps, M. E.; Kuhl, D. E.

    1980-09-01

    An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends. (ACR)

  12. Positron computed tomography: current state, clinical results and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schelbert, H.R.; Phelps, M.E.; Kuhl, D.E.

    1980-01-01

    An overview is presented of positron computed tomography: its advantages over single photon emission tomography, its use in metabolic studies of the heart and chemical investigation of the brain, and future trends

  13. Demonstrating Clean Burning Future Fuels at a Public Engagement Event

    OpenAIRE

    Eveleigh, A.; Hellier, P.; Karcher, V.; Talibi, M.

    2017-01-01

    Sustainable future fuels are likely to be produced by a wide range of processes, and there exists the opportunity to engineer these fuels so that they burn more efficiently and produce fewer harmful emissions. Such potential is especially important within the context of reducing the emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHG) and toxic pollutants that adversely impact air quality and human health. To illustrate how fuel design on a molecular level may be exploited to reduce these emissions, the ...

  14. Ammonia emissions in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Brian H.

    2012-01-01

    The NEC (National Emission Ceiling) directive has set targets for the 2010 ammonia emissions from a number of European countries. The target will be reached by most EU-countries and the total emission for EU-27 has been reduced by 22% from 1990 to 2007. Denmark is one of the countries with the la......The NEC (National Emission Ceiling) directive has set targets for the 2010 ammonia emissions from a number of European countries. The target will be reached by most EU-countries and the total emission for EU-27 has been reduced by 22% from 1990 to 2007. Denmark is one of the countries...

  15. Efficient EGR technology for future HD diesel engine emission targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baert, R.S.G.; Beckman, D.E.; Veen, A.

    1999-01-01

    Different systems for achieving short-route cooled EGR on turbocharged and aftercooled heavy-duty diesel engines have been tested on a 12 litre 315 kW engine with 4 valves per cylinder and an electronically controlled unit pump fuel injection system. In all of these systems the exhaust gas was

  16. EMISSION TRADING - CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS (R828631)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  17. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  18. World Emission RETRO ANTHRO

    Data.gov (United States)

    Washington University St Louis — Anthropogenic and vegetation fire emissions data were generated monthly covering a period of 1960 to 2000. Anthropogenic emissions in the RETRO inventory are derived...

  19. National Emission Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The National Emission Inventory contains measured, modeled, and estimated data for emissions of all known source categories in the US (stationary sources, fires,...

  20. Biodiesel Emissions Analysis Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using existing data, the EPA's biodiesel emissions analysis program sought to quantify the air pollution emission effects of biodiesel for diesel engines that have not been specifically modified to operate on biodiesel.

  1. Emissions Trading Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn about emissions trading programs, also known as cap and trade programs, which are market-based policy tools for protecting human health and the environment by controlling emissions from a group of sources.

  2. What Is Emissions Trading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Learn the basics about how emissions trading uses a market-based policy tool used to control large amounts of pollution emissions from a group of sources in order to protect human health and the environment.

  3. Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Emissions Modeling Clearinghouse (EMCH) supports and promotes emissions modeling activities both internal and external to the EPA. Through this site, the EPA...

  4. The Future of Low-Carbon Electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenblatt, Jeffery B. [Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,; Brown, Nicholas R. [Department of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802; Slaybaugh, Rachel [Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720; Wilks, Theresa [Plasma Science and Fusion Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139; Stewart, Emma [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550; McCoy, Sean T. [Global Security, E Program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550

    2017-10-17

    We review future global demand for electricity and major technologies positioned to supply it with minimal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: renewables (wind, solar, water, geothermal, and biomass), nuclear fission, and fossil power with CO2 capture and sequestration. We discuss two breakthrough technologies (space solar power and nuclear fusion) as exciting but uncertain additional options for low-net GHG emissions (i.e., low-carbon) electricity generation. In addition, we discuss grid integration technologies (monitoring and forecasting of transmission and distribution systems, demand-side load management, energy storage, and load balancing with low-carbon fuel substitutes). For each topic, recent historical trends and future prospects are reviewed, along with technical challenges, costs, and other issues as appropriate. Although no technology represents an ideal solution, their strengths can be enhanced by deployment in combination, along with grid integration that forms a critical set of enabling technologies to assure a reliable and robust future low-carbon electricity system.

  5. Managing the diffusion of low emission vehicles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vooren, A. van der; Alkemade, F.

    2012-01-01

    There is significant uncertainty among technology providers, governments, and consumers about which technology will be the vehicle technology of the future. Governments try to stimulate the diffusion of low emission vehicles with diverse policy measures such as purchase price subsidies. However, the

  6. Laboratory technique for quantitative thermal emissivity ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This laboratory at the Department of Earth Sciences, IIT-Bombay is currently developing pure end mineral library of mineral particulates (> 65 m), and adding new end members to the existing ASU spectral library. The paper argues the need for considering Lunar Orbiter Thermal Emission Spectrometer (LOTES) for future ...

  7. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  8. Variable Emissivity Through MEMS Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darrin, Ann Garrison; Osiander, Robert; Champion, John; Swanson, Ted; Douglas, Donya; Grob, Lisa M.; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    This paper discusses a new technology for variable emissivity (vari-e) radiator surfaces, which has significant advantages over traditional radiators and promises an alternative design technique for future spacecraft thermal control systems. All spacecraft rely on radiative surfaces to dissipate waste heat. These radiators have special coatings, typically with a low solar absorptivity and a high infrared-red emissivity, that are intended to optimize performance under the expected heat load and thermal sink environment. The dynamics of the heat loads and thermal environment make it a challenge to properly size the radiator and often require some means of regulating the heat rejection rate of the radiators in order to achieve proper thermal balance. Specialized thermal control coatings, which can passively or actively adjust their emissivity offer an attractive solution to these design challenges. Such systems would allow intelligent control of the rate of heat loss from a radiator in response to heat load and thermal environmental variations. Intelligent thermal control through variable emissivity systems is well suited for nano and pico spacecraft applications where large thermal fluctuations are expected due to the small thermal mass and limited electric resources. Presently there are three different types of vari-e technologies under development: Micro ElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) louvers, Electrochromic devices, and Electrophoretic devices. This paper will describe several prototypes of micromachined (MEMS) louvers and experimental results for the emissivity variations measured on theses prototypes. It will further discuss possible actuation mechanisms and space reliability aspects for different designs. Finally, for comparison parametric evaluations of the thermal performances of the new vari-e technology and standard thermal control systems are presented in this paper.

  9. Fundamentals of positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ostertag, H.

    1989-01-01

    Positron emission tomography is a modern radionuclide method of measuring physiological quantities or metabolic parameters in vivo. The methods is based on: (1) Radioactive labelling with positron emitters; (2) the coincidence technique for the measurement of the annihilation radiation following positron decay; (3) analysis of the data measured using biological models. The basic aspects and problems of the method are discussed. The main fields of future research are the synthesis of new labelled compounds and the development of mathematical models of the biological processes to be investigated. (orig.) [de

  10. Characterizing Dominant Processes in Landfills to Quantify the Emission Potential

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Turnhout, A.G.

    2017-01-01

    Our ever-growing amount of solid waste puts a burden on future generations and the environment due to emissions of contaminants such as CO2, CH4, Cl- and heavy-metals for hundreds of years. It is therefore essential that landfill after-care methods are developed that reduce the emission potential of

  11. Cost-effective control of SO2 emissions in Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cofala, J.; Amann, M.; Gyarfas, F.; Schoepp, F.; Boudri, J.C.; Hordijk, L.; Kroeze, C.; Li Junfeng,; Dai Lin, D.; Panwar, T.S.; Gupta, S.

    2004-01-01

    Despite recent efforts to limit the growth of SO2 emissions in Asia, the negative environmental effects of sulphur emissions are likely to further increase in the future. This paper presents an extension of the RAINS-Asia integrated assessment model for acidification in Asia with an optimisation

  12. FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

    2014-12-01

    Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

  13. Historical emissions critical for mapping decarbonization pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majkut, J.; Kopp, R. E.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2016-12-01

    Policymakers have set a goal of limiting temperature increase from human influence on the climate. This motivates the identification of decarbonization pathways to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2. In this context, the future behavior of CO2 sources and sinks define the CO2 emissions necessary to meet warming thresholds with specified probabilities. We adopt a simple model of the atmosphere-land-ocean carbon balance to reflect uncertainty in how natural CO2 sinks will respond to increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperature. Bayesian inversion is used to estimate the probability distributions of selected parameters of the carbon model. Prior probability distributions are chosen to reflect the behavior of CMIP5 models. We then update these prior distributions by running historical simulations of the global carbon cycle and inverting with observationally-based inventories and fluxes of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean and atmosphere. The result is a best-estimate of historical CO2 sources and sinks and a model of how CO2 sources and sinks will vary in the future under various emissions scenarios, with uncertainty. By linking the carbon model to a simple climate model, we calculate emissions pathways and carbon budgets consistent with meeting specific temperature thresholds and identify key factors that contribute to remaining uncertainty. In particular, we show how the assumed history of CO2 emissions from land use change (LUC) critically impacts estimates of the strength of the land CO2 sink via CO2 fertilization. Different estimates of historical LUC emissions taken from the literature lead to significantly different parameterizations of the carbon system. High historical CO2 emissions from LUC lead to a more robust CO2 fertilization effect, significantly lower future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and an increased amount of CO2 that can be emitted to satisfy temperature stabilization targets. Thus, in our model, historical LUC emissions have a

  14. Emission credits : what are they worth?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilman, E.A.

    2003-01-01

    The current cost of making a carbon transaction was discussed with particular reference to a time-line when emissions trading will become more cost-effective and streamlined for quicker results. This paper described how companies are dealing with the risk of emissions trading in terms of pricing and the expected financial impacts of owning a new commodity. The incorporation of emissions credits and trading activities into a company's balance sheet was also described in terms of how banks will consider a company's credit when calculating their loan potential. It was noted that some credits will be valued higher than others based on their historical background. The financial impact that credits have on company assets was addressed in terms of measuring reputation management. The importance of developing a financial plan for effective management was emphasized in terms of evaluating emissions reduction projects and future options. 17 refs., 2 figs

  15. Emissions Of Greenhouse Gases From Rice Agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Aslam K. Khalil

    2009-07-16

    This project produced detailed data on the processes that affect methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice agriculture and their inter-relationships. It defines the shifting roles and potential future of these gases in causing global warming and the benefits and tradeoffs of reducing emissions. The major results include: 1). Mechanisms and Processes Leading to Methane Emissions are Delineated. Our experiments have tested the standard model of methane emissions from rice fields and found new results on the processes that control the flux. A mathematical mass balance model was used to unravel the production, oxidation and transport of methane from rice. The results suggested that when large amounts of organic matter are applied, the additional flux that is observed is due to both greater production and reduced oxidation of methane. 2). Methane Emissions From China Have Been Decreasing Over the Last Two Decades. We have calculated that methane emissions from rice fields have been falling in recent decades. This decrease is particularly large in China. While some of this is due to reduced area of rice agriculture, the bigger effect is from the reduction in the emission factor which is the annual amount of methane emitted per hectare of rice. The two most important changes that cause this decreasing emission from China are the reduced use of organic amendments which have been replaced by commercial nitrogen fertilizers, and the increased practice of intermittent flooding as greater demands are placed on water resources. 3). Global Methane Emissions Have Been Constant For More Than 20 Years. While the concentrations of methane in the atmosphere have been leveling off in recent years, our studies show that this is caused by a near constant total global source of methane for the last 20 years or more. This is probably because as some anthropogenic sources have increased, others, such as the rice agriculture source, have fallen. Changes in natural emissions appear small

  16. International emissions trading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Jan Tjeerd

    This thesis discusses the design and political acceptability of international emissions trading. It is shown that there are several designs options for emissions trading at the national level that have a different impact on output and thereby related factors such as employment and consumer prices....... The differences in impact of the design make that governments may prefer different designs of emissions trading in different situations. The thesis furthermore establishes that international emissions trading may lead to higher overall emissions, which may make it a less attractive instrument....

  17. FutureGen Project Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabe, Jim; Elliott, Mike

    2010-09-30

    This report summarizes the comprehensive siting, permitting, engineering, design, and costing activities completed by the FutureGen Industrial Alliance, the Department of Energy, and associated supporting subcontractors to develop a first of a kind near zero emissions integrated gasification combined cycle power plant and carbon capture and storage project (IGCC-CCS). With the goal to design, build, and reliably operate the first IGCC-CCS facility, FutureGen would have been the lowest emitting pulverized coal power plant in the world, while providing a timely and relevant basis for coal combustion power plants deploying carbon capture in the future. The content of this report summarizes key findings and results of applicable project evaluations; modeling, design, and engineering assessments; cost estimate reports; and schedule and risk mitigation from initiation of the FutureGen project through final flow sheet analyses including capital and operating reports completed under DOE award DE-FE0000587. This project report necessarily builds upon previously completed siting, design, and development work executed under DOE award DE-FC26- 06NT4207 which included the siting process; environmental permitting, compliance, and mitigation under the National Environmental Policy Act; and development of conceptual and design basis documentation for the FutureGen plant. For completeness, the report includes as attachments the siting and design basis documents, as well as the source documentation for the following: • Site evaluation and selection process and environmental characterization • Underground Injection Control (UIC) Permit Application including well design and subsurface modeling • FutureGen IGCC-CCS Design Basis Document • Process evaluations and technology selection via Illinois Clean Coal Review Board Technical Report • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance for slurry-fed gasifier configuration • Process flow diagrams and heat/material balance

  18. Historic Patterns of CO{sub 2} Emissions from Fossil Fuels: Implications for Stabilization of Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres, R. J.; Marland, G.

    1994-06-01

    This paper examines the historical record of greenhouse gas emissions since 1950, reviews the prospects for emissions into the future, and projects what would be the short-term outcome if the stated targets of the FCCC were in fact achieved. The examination focuses on the most important of the greenhouse gases, CO{sub 2}. The extensive record of historic CO{sub 2} emissions is explored to ascertain if it is an adequate basis for useful extrapolation into the near future. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption have been documented. Emissions grew at 4.3% per year from 1950 until the time of the 1973 oil crisis. Another disruption in growth followed the oil price increases of 1979. Global total emissions have been increasing steadily since the 1982-1983 minimum and have grown by more than 20% since then. At present, emission Of CO{sub 2} from fossil fuel burning is dominated by a few countries: the U.S., the former Soviet Union, China, the developed countries of Europe and Japan. Only 20 countries emit 84% of emissions from all countries. However, rates of growth in many of the developed countries are now very low. In contrast, energy use has grown rapidly over the last 20 years in some of the large, developing economies. Emissions from fossil fuel consumption are now nearly 4 times those from land use change and are the primary cause of measured increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2}. The increasing concentration of atmospheric CO{sub 2} has led to rising concern about the possibility of impending changes in the global climate system. In an effort to limit or mitigate potential negative effects of global climate change, 154 countries signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June, 1992. The FCCC asks all countries to conduct an inventory of their current greenhouse gas emissions setting non-binding targets.

  19. Modeling of greenhouse gas emission from livestock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjo eJose

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of climate change on humans and other living ecosystems is an area of on-going research. The ruminant livestock sector is considered to be one of the most significant contributors to the existing greenhouse gas (GHG pool. However the there are opportunities to combat climate change by reducing the emission of GHGs from ruminants. Methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O are emitted by ruminants via anaerobic digestion of organic matter in the rumen and manure, and by denitrification and nitrification processes which occur in manure. The quantification of these emissions by experimental methods is difficult and takes considerable time for analysis of the implications of the outputs from empirical studies, and for adaptation and mitigation strategies to be developed. To overcome these problems computer simulation models offer substantial scope for predicting GHG emissions. These models often include all farm activities while accurately predicting the GHG emissions including both direct as well as indirect sources. The models are fast and efficient in predicting emissions and provide valuable information on implementing the appropriate GHG mitigation strategies on farms. Further, these models help in testing the efficacy of various mitigation strategies that are employed to reduce GHG emissions. These models can be used to determine future adaptation and mitigation strategies, to reduce GHG emissions thereby combating livestock induced climate change.

  20. Accounting For Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Flooded ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the inundation of rivers and terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can lead to enhanced rates of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. The research approaches include 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions. To inform th

  1. Market analysis and risk management of EU emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ollikainen, M.; Ollikka, K.; Aatola, P.; Ahonen, H.M.; Pohjola, T.; Kumpulainen, A.; Lappalainen, E.

    2006-01-01

    The first EU emissions trading period commenced on 1 January 2005. It implies new challenges to companies included in the scheme. A central challenge is the uncertainty related to the markets. In order to manage risks and profitability companies need to be able to estimate future price developments of emission allowances. University of Helsinki is conducting a research project in cooperation with Helsinki University of Technology that will provide necessary information for analyzing emission allowance markets and create risk management competence. The objectives of the research project are 1) to develop a price estimation model for EU emission allowances and 2) to develop risk management competence related to EU emission allowances. With the price estimation model the short-term price developments of EU emission allowances can be estimated. By utilizing the model companies can reduce uncertainties related to the markets. The project will also deliver a general risk management model for emission allowances that aims at improving competitiveness of companies. (orig.)

  2. Air Emissions Factors and Quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emissions factors are used in developing air emissions inventories for air quality management decisions and in developing emissions control strategies. This area provides technical information on and support for the use of emissions factors.

  3. Future Air Quality in Danish Cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, S. S.; Berkowicz, R.; Winther, M.

    The impact of new EU vehicle emission and fuel quality directives on the future air quality in Danish cities has been modelled for comparison with new limit values in the new EU directive on assessment and management of urban air quality. Nested modelling was applied using a set of air quality...... and emission models to predict concentration levels in the regional background, urban background and at street level. Air pollution levels were predicted to decrease for NO2, CO and benzene (ozone increased slightly) and the results show that the levels will not exceed the new EU limit values in 2010 despite...

  4. The international research progress of Ammonia(NH3) emissions and emissions reduction technology in farmland ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, W. Z.; Jiao, Y.

    2017-03-01

    NH3 is the important factor leading to the grey haze, and one of the main causes of environmental problems of serious ecological imbalance, such as acid rain and air quality deterioration. The fertilizer excessive application of the current farmland results NH3 emissions intensity greatly. In order to clear the farmland NH3 emissions research status and achievements, the literature of farmland NH3 emission related were retrievaled by the SCI journals and Chinese science citation database. Some factors of NH3 emission were analyzed such as soil factors, climate factors and farmland management measures. The research progress was inductived on farmland NH3 emission reduction technology. The results will help to clarify farmland NH3 emissions research progress. The theoretical guidance was provided on the future of farmland NH3 emissions research.

  5. Some Aspects of Futurism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangchai, Samporn

    1975-01-01

    The article, an overview, surveys various schools of futures research with reference to futurism's dimensions (methodologies, typologies, and distance in time); planning for alternative futures; orientations; and inner-future orientations (mysticism vs. science). Developing nations are advised to adapt developed nations' learnings selectively, and…

  6. Applications for positron emission mammography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberg, Irving N

    2006-01-01

    High resolution positron emission mammography (PEM) can address the current clinical needs of breast cancer patients and the requirements for future translational work. Combining the quantitative capabilities of positron emission tomography (PET) with millimeter resolution, PEM can image the earliest in situ forms of breast cancer as well as putative cancer precursor lesions (e.g., atypical ductal hyperplasia) whose behavior is important for prevention studies. The importance of the ability to detect intraductal cancer cannot be overemphasized, for several reasons: at least one-third of new cancers are detected at this intraductal stage, intervention at this stage represents the best opportunity for complete cure, and a significant number of invasive cancers contain an intraductal component. Without knowledge of the extent of the intraductal component, surgeons are unable to completely excise cancers about a third of the time, leading to unnecessary re-excisions or radiation therapy. Current investigations aimed at specifying best practices in radiotherapy of DCIS patients are stymied by the lack of objective quantitative methods of rapidly assessing response. Other future applications of PEM are suggested, including an information technology project built on PEM that promises to individualize therapy and facilitate surveillance of high risk populations. The high overall accuracy of PEM (i.e., both specificity and sensitivity) is an unusual and welcome development in the history of breast imaging. With this high accuracy, and continued technical innovation to reduce radiation dose, PEM may someday replace X-ray mammography as a first line approach to breast cancer detection.

  7. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  8. Potential of IC-engines as minimum emission propulsion system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichlseder, Helmut; Wimmer, Andreas

    Forced by the increasing mobility and the greenhouse effect a further reduction of emissions of pollutants and CO 2 is required. The main demand for improvement will be reduction of NO x and particulate emissions from diesel engines and fuel consumption/CO 2-emission from spark ignition (SI)-engines. New technologies for combustion and exhaust gas aftertreatment being under development are introduced and discussed. These technologies with increased complexity show significant potential for minimum emission and are able to fulfil future demands.

  9. Emissions from the Bena Landfill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schafer, C.; Blake, D. R.; Hughes, S.

    2016-12-01

    In 2013, Americans generated 254 million tons of municipal solid waste (MSW). The gas generated from the decomposition of MSW is composed of approximately 50% methane, 50% carbon dioxide, and a small proportion of non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs). NMOCs constitute less than 1% of landfill emissions, but they can have a disproportionate environmental impact as they are highly reactive ozone precursors. During the 2016 Student Airborne Research Program (SARP), whole air samples were collected at the Bena landfill outside of Bakersfield, CA and throughout Bakersfield and analyzed using gas chromatography in order to quantify NMOC emissions. This area was determined to have elevated concentrations of benzene, trichloroethylene, and tetrachloroethylene, all of which are categorized by the EPA as hazardous to human health. Benzene was found to have a concentration of 145 ± 4 pptv, four times higher than the background levels in Bakersfield (36 ± 1 pptv). Trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene had concentrations of 18 ± 1 pptv and 31 ± 1 pptv which were 18 and 10 times greater than background concentrations, respectively. In addition, hydroxyl radical reactivity (ROH) was calculated to determine the potential for tropospheric ozone formation. The total ROH of the landfill was 7.5 ± 0.2 s-1 compared to total background ROH of 1.0 ± 0.1 s-1 . NMOCs only made up 0.6% of total emissions, but accounted for 67% of total ROH.These results can help to shape future landfill emission policies by highlighting the importance of NMOCs in addition to methane. More research is needed to investigate the ozone forming potential of these compounds at landfills across the country.

  10. Emissions of nitrogen oxides from road traffic - regulations, emissions and effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoedin, Aake; Pihl-Karlsson, Gunilla; Johansson, Manne; Forsberg, Bertil; Erlandsson, Lennart

    2004-10-01

    The report is a review that aims to improve the basis for additional measures against the road traffic emissions of, in particular, NO x . An important question in the context is whether health effects of NO 2 should serve as a norm for the actions for emission reductions of NO x , or if the environmental effects of NO x -emissions in the form of acidification, eutrophication and ozone should play this role. WHO notes, in its latest review of health effect research, that one cannot demonstrate that NO 2 alone has any direct effects in concentrations at the current whole-year mean norm (40 μg/m 3 ). Such health effects that has been demonstrated in epidemiologic studies at these concentrations are caused by other traffic related emissions (e. g. particles) for which NO 2 constitutes a good indicator. WHO indicates the need for additional sharpening of the norms for ozone and particles. In this context, it is important to note that emissions of NO x on a regional scale contributes to formation of ozone as well as particles. Therefore there exist reasons to decrease the emissions of NO x in order to reach future recommended values for ozone and particles emissions. In the evaluations that will be done during 2004-2005 of the so called Goeteborg protocol, the EU's Ceiling Directives and the CAFE-programme, it is expected that new emissions objective for NO x will be suggested for 2015-2020, to cope with health and environment objectives in Europe. The report shows that that development that currently happens within the vehicle industry, for engines and exhaust emission control system are pursued to meet future exhaust requirement in the USA gives good conditions for the road traffic sector to contribute to that these objectives will reached

  11. BP's emissions trading system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, David G.; House, Joshua C.

    2006-01-01

    Between 1998 and 2001, BP reduced its emissions of greenhouse gases by more than 10%. BP's success in cutting emissions is often equated with its use of an apparently market-based emissions trading program. However no independent study has ever examined the rules and operation of BP's system and the incentives acting on managers to reduce emissions. We use interviews with key managers and with traders in several critical business units to explore the bound of BP's success with emissions trading. No money actually changed hands when permits were traded, and the main effect of the program was to create awareness of money-saving emission controls rather than strong price incentives. We show that the trading system did not operate like a 'textbook' cap and trade scheme. Rather, the BP system operated much like a 'safety valve' trading system, where managers let the market function until the cost of doing so surpassed what the company was willing to tolerate

  12. A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

    2011-04-15

    The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

  13. Agricultural air quality in Europe and the future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erisman, Jan Willem; Bleeker, Albert; Hensen, Arjan; Vermeulen, Alex

    Agricultural emissions in Europe are important to several atmospheric transport-related environmental issues. These include local and regional air quality problems, such as PM exposure, eutrophication and acidification, toxics and contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a number of environmental impacts. Over Europe, agricultural emissions are variable in space and time and the contribution to the different issues are variable. Most important are ammonia (90%), PM (20%) and methane and nitrous oxide (both 5%). Policies have been developed to combat some of the emissions with success in some countries. However, future, national and European policies are necessary to successfully decrease emissions and its related problems. Current research issues include the quantification of non-point sources, the atmosphere-biosphere exchange of ammonia, the quantification of landscape processes and the primary and secondary emissions of PM.

  14. Agricultural air quality in Europe and the future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erisman, J.W.; Bleeker, A.; Hensen, A.; Vermeulen, A.T.

    2008-08-01

    Agricultural emissions in Europe are important to several atmospheric transport-related environmental issues. These include local and regional air quality problems, such as PM exposure, eutrophication and acidification, toxics and contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a number of environmental impacts. Over Europe, agricultural emissions are variable in space and time and the contribution to the different issues are variable. Most important are ammonia (90%), PM (20%) and methane and nitrous oxide (both 5%). Policies have been developed to combat some of the emissions with success in some countries. However, future, national and European policies are necessary to successfully decrease emissions and its related problems. Current research issues include the quantification of non-point sources, the atmosphere-biosphere exchange of ammonia, the quantification of landscape processes and the primary and secondary emissions of PM

  15. Nitrous Oxide (N2O) emissions from human waste in 1970-2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strokal, M.; Kroeze, C.

    2014-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important contributor to climate change. Human waste is an important source of N2O emissions in several world regions, and its share in global emissions may increase in the future. In this paper we, therefore, address N2O emission from human waste: collected (from treatment

  16. Nitrous oxide (N2O). Emission inventory and options for control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroeze C; LAE

    1994-01-01

    This study was initiated to overview current knowledge on nitrous oxide (N2O). The report reviews atmospheric behaviour of N2O, global sources and sinks, Dutch emissions in 1990, options to reduce emissions, and past and future emissions. Despite the uncertainties involved, it is likely that without

  17. 40 CFR 1051.710 - How do I generate and bank emission credits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM RECREATIONAL ENGINES AND VEHICLES Averaging, Banking, and Trading for Certification § 1051.710 How do I generate and bank emission credits? (a) Banking is... averaging or trading in future model years. You may use banked emission credits only within the averaging...

  18. VOC emissions chambers

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — In order to support the development of test methods and reference materials for volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions from building materials and furnishings,...

  19. The Future of Air Conditioning for Buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goetzler, William [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Guernsey, Matt [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Young, Jim [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Fujrman, Jay [Navigant Consulting, Burlington, MA (United States); Abdelaziz, Amar [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-07-01

    BTO works with researchers and industry to develop and deploy technologies that can substantially reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in residential and commercial buildings. Air conditioning systems in buildings contribute to GHG emissions both directly through refrigerant emissions, as well as indirectly through fossil fuel combustion for power generation. BTO promotes pre-competitive research and development on next-generation HVAC technologies that support the phase down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption, as well as cost-effective energy efficiency improvements. DOE provides, with this report, a fact-based vision for the future of A/C use around the world. DOE intends for this vision to reflect a broad and balanced aggregation of perspectives. DOE brings together this content in an effort to support dialogue within the international community and help keep key facts and objectives at the forefront among the many important discussions.

  20. Novel Fiber-Optic Ring Acoustic Emission Sensor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Wei

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Acoustic emission technology has been applied to many fields for many years. However, the conventional piezoelectric acoustic emission sensors cannot be used in extreme environments, such as those with heavy electromagnetic interference, high pressure, or strong corrosion. In this paper, a novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor is proposed. The sensor exhibits high sensitivity, anti-electromagnetic interference, and corrosion resistance. First, the principle of a novel fiber-optic ring sensor is introduced. Different from piezoelectric and other fiber acoustic emission sensors, this novel sensor includes both a sensing skeleton and a sensing fiber. Second, a heterodyne interferometric demodulating method is presented. In addition, a fiber-optic ring sensor acoustic emission system is built based on this method. Finally, fiber-optic ring acoustic emission experiments are performed. The novel fiber-optic ring sensor is glued onto the surface of an aluminum plate. The 150 kHz standard continuous sinusoidal signals and broken lead signals are successfully detected by the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In addition, comparison to the piezoelectric acoustic emission sensor is performed, which shows the availability and reliability of the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In the future, this novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor will provide a new route to acoustic emission detection in harsh environments.

  1. Novel Fiber-Optic Ring Acoustic Emission Sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Peng; Han, Xiaole; Xia, Dong; Liu, Taolin; Lang, Hao

    2018-01-13

    Acoustic emission technology has been applied to many fields for many years. However, the conventional piezoelectric acoustic emission sensors cannot be used in extreme environments, such as those with heavy electromagnetic interference, high pressure, or strong corrosion. In this paper, a novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor is proposed. The sensor exhibits high sensitivity, anti-electromagnetic interference, and corrosion resistance. First, the principle of a novel fiber-optic ring sensor is introduced. Different from piezoelectric and other fiber acoustic emission sensors, this novel sensor includes both a sensing skeleton and a sensing fiber. Second, a heterodyne interferometric demodulating method is presented. In addition, a fiber-optic ring sensor acoustic emission system is built based on this method. Finally, fiber-optic ring acoustic emission experiments are performed. The novel fiber-optic ring sensor is glued onto the surface of an aluminum plate. The 150 kHz standard continuous sinusoidal signals and broken lead signals are successfully detected by the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In addition, comparison to the piezoelectric acoustic emission sensor is performed, which shows the availability and reliability of the novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor. In the future, this novel fiber-optic ring acoustic emission sensor will provide a new route to acoustic emission detection in harsh environments.

  2. Alternatives for Future Waste Management in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller Andersen, Frits; Cimpan, Ciprian; Dall, Ole

    The TOPWASTE project has addressed the challenges of planning robust solutions for future waste management. The purpose was to identify economic and environmentally optimal solutions ‐ taking into account different scenarios for the development of the surrounding systems, such as the energy system...... on comparison of greenhouse gas emissions associated with different waste management alternatives 4. A new tool for techno‐economic modelling of central sorting plants. The project has furthermore contributed with method development on evaluation of critical resources as well as analyses of economic...... and organisational factors with influence on the future waste management. The results of the project clearly show the importance of taking scenarios for the future development of surrounding systems into account when deciding how the future waste management should be, both when it comes to the economic...

  3. A framework to analyze emissions implications of ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future year emissions depend highly on the evolution of the economy, technology and current and future regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze various technology development pathways and societal change while considering existing regulations and future uncertainty in regulations and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns. The framework integrates EPA’s energy systems model with an economic Input-Output (I/O) Life Cycle Assessment model. The EPAUS9r MARKAL database is assembled from a set of technologies to represent the U.S. energy system within MARKAL bottom-up technology rich energy modeling framework. The general state of the economy and consequent demands for goods and services from these sectors are taken exogenously in MARKAL. It is important to characterize exogenous inputs about the economy to appropriately represent the industrial sector outlook for each of the scenarios and case studies evaluated. An economic input-output (I/O) model of the US economy is constructed to link up with MARKAL. The I/O model enables user to change input requirements (e.g. energy intensity) for different sectors or the share of consumer income expended on a given good. This gives end-users a mechanism for modeling change in the two dimensions of technological progress and consumer preferences that define the future scenarios. The framework will then be extended to include environmental I/O framework to track life cycle emissions associated

  4. French future: exploring the future ratification hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Mari, Alda

    2015-01-01

    International audience; The paper proposes a unified account of the systematic polysemy of French future (FUT) that does not uniquely rely on Aktionsart. It explains the predominant preference for the temporal interpretation of FUT, appealing to the ‘future ratification hypothesis’. This is a felicity condition that can be satisfied to different degrees and among competing interpretations the one that satisfies it to the highest degree is preferred. The paper also shows that FUT does not conv...

  5. Particulate emissions from diesel engines: correlation between engine technology and emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiebig, Michael; Wiartalla, Andreas; Holderbaum, Bastian; Kiesow, Sebastian

    2014-03-07

    In the last 30 years, diesel engines have made rapid progress to increased efficiency, environmental protection and comfort for both light- and heavy-duty applications. The technical developments include all issues from fuel to combustion process to exhaust gas aftertreatment. This paper provides a comprehensive summary of the available literature regarding technical developments and their impact on the reduction of pollutant emission. This includes emission legislation, fuel quality, diesel engine- and exhaust gas aftertreatment technologies, as well as particulate composition, with a focus on the mass-related particulate emission of on-road vehicle applications. Diesel engine technologies representative of real-world on-road applications will be highlighted.Internal engine modifications now make it possible to minimize particulate and nitrogen oxide emissions with nearly no reduction in power. Among these modifications are cooled exhaust gas recirculation, optimized injections systems, adapted charging systems and optimized combustion processes with high turbulence. With introduction and optimization of exhaust gas aftertreatment systems, such as the diesel oxidation catalyst and the diesel particulate trap, as well as NOx-reduction systems, pollutant emissions have been significantly decreased. Today, sulfur poisoning of diesel oxidation catalysts is no longer considered a problem due to the low-sulfur fuel used in Europe. In the future, there will be an increased use of bio-fuels, which generally have a positive impact on the particulate emissions and do not increase the particle number emissions.Since the introduction of the EU emissions legislation, all emission limits have been reduced by over 90%. Further steps can be expected in the future. Retrospectively, the particulate emissions of modern diesel engines with respect to quality and quantity cannot be compared with those of older engines. Internal engine modifications lead to a clear reduction of the

  6. Carbon trading: Current schemes and future developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perdan, Slobodan; Azapagic, Adisa

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks at the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading schemes and examines the prospects of carbon trading. The first part of the paper gives an overview of several mandatory GHG trading schemes around the world. The second part focuses on the future trends in carbon trading. It argues that the emergence of new schemes, a gradual enlargement of the current ones, and willingness to link existing and planned schemes seem to point towards geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading. However, such expansion would need to overcome some considerable technical and non-technical obstacles. Linking of the current and emerging trading schemes requires not only considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems, but also necessitates clear regulatory and policy signals, continuing political support and a more stable economic environment. Currently, the latter factors are missing. The global economic turmoil and its repercussions for the carbon market, a lack of the international deal on climate change defining the Post-Kyoto commitments, and unfavourable policy shifts in some countries, cast serious doubts on the expansion of emissions trading and indicate that carbon trading enters an uncertain period. - Highlights: → The paper provides an extensive overview of mandatory emissions trading schemes around the world. → Geographical, temporal and sectoral expansion of emissions trading are identified as future trends. → The expansion requires considerable technical fixes and harmonisation of different trading systems. → Clear policy signals, political support and a stable economic environment are needed for the expansion. → A lack of the post-Kyoto commitments and unfavourable policy shifts indicate an uncertain future for carbon trading.

  7. Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used as a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. In the U.S., research approaches include: 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane em

  8. Impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on the simulated response of ozone and fine particulate matter to anthropogenic emission reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogrefe, Christian; Isukapalli, Sastry S; Tang, Xiaogang; Georgopoulos, Panos G; He, Shan; Zalewsky, Eric E; Hao, Winston; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Key, Tonalee; Sistla, Gopal

    2011-01-01

    The role of emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitric oxide from biogenic sources is becoming increasingly important in regulatory air quality modeling as levels of anthropogenic emissions continue to decrease and stricter health-based air quality standards are being adopted. However, considerable uncertainties still exist in the current estimation methodologies for biogenic emissions. The impact of these uncertainties on ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels for the eastern United States was studied, focusing on biogenic emissions estimates from two commonly used biogenic emission models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS). Photochemical grid modeling simulations were performed for two scenarios: one reflecting present day conditions and the other reflecting a hypothetical future year with reductions in emissions of anthropogenic oxides of nitrogen (NOx). For ozone, the use of MEGAN emissions resulted in a higher ozone response to hypothetical anthropogenic NOx emission reductions compared with BEIS. Applying the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance on regulatory air quality modeling in conjunction with typical maximum ozone concentrations, the differences in estimated future year ozone design values (DVF) stemming from differences in biogenic emissions estimates were on the order of 4 parts per billion (ppb), corresponding to approximately 5% of the daily maximum 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 75 ppb. For PM2.5, the differences were 0.1-0.25 microg/m3 in the summer total organic mass component of DVFs, corresponding to approximately 1-2% of the value of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 microg/m3. Spatial variations in the ozone and PM2.5 differences also reveal that the impacts of different biogenic emission estimates on ozone and PM2.5 levels are dependent on ambient levels of anthropogenic emissions.

  9. Outsourcing CO2 Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K. G.

    2009-12-01

    CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are the primary cause of global warming. Much attention has been focused on the CO2 directly emitted by each country, but relatively little attention has been paid to the amount of emissions associated with consumption of goods and services in each country. This consumption-based emissions inventory differs from the production-based inventory because of imports and exports of goods and services that, either directly or indirectly, involved CO2 emissions. Using the latest available data and reasonable assumptions regarding trans-shipment of embodied carbon through third-party countries, we developed a global consumption-based CO2 emissions inventory and have calculated associated consumption-based energy and carbon intensities. We find that, in 2004, 24% of CO2 emissions are effectively outsourced to other countries, with much of the developed world outsourcing CO2 emissions to emerging markets, principally China. Some wealthy countries, including Switzerland and Sweden, outsource over half of their consumption-based emissions, with many northern Europeans outsourcing more than three tons of emissions per person per year. The United States is both a big importer and exporter of emissions embodied in trade, outsourcing >2.6 tons of CO2 per person and at the same time as >2.0 tons of CO2 per person are outsourced to the United States. These large flows indicate that CO2 emissions embodied in trade must be taken into consideration when considering responsibility for increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

  10. Characteristics of On-road Diesel Vehicles: Black Carbon Emissions in Chinese Cities Based on Portable Emissions Measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xuan; Wu, Ye; Jiang, Jingkun; Zhang, Shaojun; Liu, Huan; Song, Shaojie; Li, Zhenhua; Fan, Xiaoxiao; Fu, Lixin; Hao, Jiming

    2015-11-17

    Black carbon (BC) emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) are rarely continuously measured using portable emission measurement systems (PEMSs). In this study, we utilize a PEMS to obtain real-world BC emission profiles for 25 HDDVs in China. The average fuel-based BC emissions of HDDVs certified according to Euro II, III, IV, and V standards are 2224 ± 251, 612 ± 740, 453 ± 584, and 152 ± 3 mg kg(-1), respectively. Notably, HDDVs adopting mechanical pump engines had significantly higher BC emissions than those equipped with electronic injection engines. Applying the useful features of PEMSs, we can relate instantaneous BC emissions to driving conditions using an operating mode binning methodology, and the average emission rates for Euro II to Euro IV diesel trucks can be constructed. From a macroscopic perspective, we observe that average speed is a significant factor affecting BC emissions and is well correlated with distance-based emissions (R(2) = 0.71). Therefore, the average fuel-based and distance-based BC emissions on congested roads are 40 and 125% higher than those on freeways. These results should be taken into consideration in future emission inventory studies.

  11. Future Heat Waves In Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eltahir, E. A. B.

    2017-12-01

    I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

  12. The future of petroleum fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laredo, J.

    1997-01-01

    The world relies greatly on hydrocarbons for its energy. The three main problems associated with this dependence on fossil fuels are that (1) most consuming countries depend on oil supplied from high-risk producing countries, (2) oil reserves will eventually deplete, and (3) the burning of fossil fuels creates greenhouse gases that are harmful to the environment and human health. In response to some of these concerns, governments have set emissions standards and have encouraged the development of alternative energy sources. This trend will have a significant impact on the transportation sector, oil companies and car manufacturers. This monograph attempts to evaluate qualitatively the potential of various alternative technologies, especially on the transportation sector. Alternative technology research in the United States and Europe by the automobile and electrical industries was examined. Preparation by the oil companies for the changes that they will have to confront in the not-too-distant future were also reviewed. 82 refs., 7 tabs., 20 figs

  13. The Future Multiple

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2015-01-01

    Purpose – This paper asks “Why is the future in futures studies plural?” The attitude toward inquiry, based on post-actor-network theory (ANT) literature, positions philosophical questions about the ontological character of the future within the context of “planning” for it (i.e. in practice......). Multiplicity, as a post-ANT sensibility, helps one make sense of the empirical materials. This paper examines the possibility that rather than being alternatives to one another, plural futures and the singular future might co-exist in practice, and, thus, constitute a multiplicity. Design......, if “the future” were so preposterous an idea, then “futures” would cease to be a critical alternative to it. Futures needs the future; they are relationally bound together in a multiplicity. This paper considers what such a logical reality implies for a field that distances itself from the future and self...

  14. Future accelerators: physics issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjorken, J.D.

    1977-11-01

    High energy physics of the future using future accelerators is discussed. The proposed machines and instruments, physics issues and opportunities including brief sketches of outstanding recent results, and the way the proposed machines address these issues are considered. 42 references

  15. Air Emission Inventory for the INEEL -- 1999 Emission Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zohner, Steven K

    2000-05-01

    This report presents the 1999 calendar year update of the Air Emission Inventory for the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The INEEL Air Emission Inventory documents sources and emissions of nonradionuclide pollutants from operations at the INEEL. The report describes the emission inventory process and all of the sources at the INEEL, and provides nonradionuclide emissions estimates for stationary sources.

  16. Making the Future Palpable

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Büscher, Monika; Kristensen, Margit; Mogensen, Preben Holst

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we describe experiences from a Future Laboratory. Future laboratories allow users to experiment with prototypes of future technologies in as realistic as possible conditions. We have devised this method because, to realize the potential of advanced ubiquitous computing technologies ...

  17. Greening the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Norma Velia

    2011-01-01

    Because educators vicariously touch the future through their students, the author believes that they sometimes have the uncanny ability to see the future. One common future forecast is the phenomenal growth of green jobs in the emerging green economy, leading to the creation of the "Reach of the Sun" Solar Energy Academy at La Mirada…

  18. Emission of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindwall, Frida

    , emitted in order to communicate within and between trophic levels and as protection against biotic and abiotic stresses, or as byproducts. Some BVOCs are very reactive, and when entering the atmosphere they rapidly react with for example hydroxyl radicals and ozone, affecting the oxidative capacity......Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from arctic ecosystems are scarcely studied and the effect of climate change on BVOC emissions even less so. BVOCs are emitted from all living organisms and play a role for atmospheric chemistry. The major part of BVOCs derives from plants...... dependent and the emissions will increase in a future warmer climate. The aims of this dissertation were to study BVOC emission rates and blends from arctic ecosystems and to reveal the effect of climate change on BVOC emissions from the Arctic. BVOC emissions were measured in ambient and modified...

  19. Positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reivich, M.; Alavi, A.

    1985-01-01

    This book contains 24 selections. Some of the titles are: Positron Emission Tomography Instrumentation, Generator Systems for Positron Emitters, Reconstruction Algorithms, Cerebral Glucose Consumption: Methodology and Validation, Cerebral Blood Flow Tomography Using Xenon-133 Inhalation: Methods and Clinical Applications, PET Studies of Stroke, Cardiac Positron Emission Tomography, and Use of PET in Oncology

  20. Diesel Emissions Quantifier (DEQ)

    Science.gov (United States)

    .The Diesel Emissions Quantifier (Quantifier) is an interactive tool to estimate emission reductions and cost effectiveness. Publications EPA-420-F-13-008a (420f13008a), EPA-420-B-10-035 (420b10023), EPA-420-B-10-034 (420b10034)

  1. National pollutants emission limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chmielewski, A.G.; Pawelec, A.

    2011-01-01

    Fossil fuels are the main energy sources. Unfortunately the vast quantities of pollutants are emitted to the atmosphere during their combustion. These emissions lead to the environment degradation and affect human health. Therefore most of the countries have introduced the standards concerning emission control. These regulations for some countries are presented in the paper. (author)

  2. Modeling of pollutant emissions from road transport; Modelisation des emissions de polluants par le transport routier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    COPERT III (computer programme to calculate emissions from road transport) is the third version of an MS Windows software programme aiming at the calculation of air pollutant emissions from road transport. COPERT estimates emissions of all regulated air pollutants (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM) produced by different vehicle categories as well as CO{sub 2} emissions on the basis of fuel consumption. This research seminar was organized by the French agency of environment and energy mastery (Ademe) around the following topics: the uncertainties and sensitiveness analysis of the COPERT III model, the presentation of case studies that use COPERT III for the estimation of road transport emissions, and the future of the modeling of road transport emissions: from COPERT III to ARTEMIS (assessment and reliability of transport emission models and inventory systems). This document is a compilation of 8 contributions to this seminar and dealing with: the uncertainty and sensitiveness analysis of the COPERT III model; the road mode emissions of the ESCOMPTE program: sensitivity study; the sensitivity analysis of the spatialized traffic at the time-aggregation level: application in the framework of the INTERREG project (Alsace); the road transport aspect of the regional air quality plan of Bourgogne region: exhaustive consideration of the road network; intercomparison of tools and methods for the inventory of emissions of road transport origin; evolution of the French park of vehicles by 2025: new projections; application of COPERT III to the French context: a new version of IMPACT-ADEME; the European ARTEMIS project: new structural considerations for the modeling of road transport emissions. (J.S.)

  3. The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of recent and forthcoming emission regulations in the northern European emission control area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, L.; Jalkanen, J.-P.; Kalli, J.; Kukkonen, J.

    2013-06-01

    An extensive inventory of marine exhaust emissions is presented in the northern European emission control area (ECA) in 2009 and 2011. The emissions of SOx, NOx, CO2, CO and PM2.5 were evaluated using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM). We have combined the information on individual vessel characteristics and position reports generated by the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The emission limitations from 2009 to 2011 have had a significant impact on reducing the emissions of both SOx and PM2.5. The predicted emissions of SOx originated from IMO-registered marine traffic have been reduced by 33%, from 322 ktons to 217 ktons, in the ECA from 2009 to 2011. The corresponding predicted reduction of PM2.5 emissions was 20%, from 74 ktons to 59 ktons. The highest CO2 and PM2.5 emissions in 2011 were located in the vicinity of the coast of the Netherlands, in the English Channel, near the South-Eastern UK and along the busiest shipping lines in the Danish Straits and the Baltic Sea. The changes of emissions and the financial costs caused by various regulative actions since 2005 were also evaluated, based on the increased direct fuel costs. We also simulated the effects and direct costs associated with the forthcoming switch to low-sulfur distillate fuels in 2015. According to the projections for the future, there will be a reduction of 85% in SOx emissions and a~reduction of 50% in PM2.5 emissions in 2015, compared with the corresponding shipping emissions in 2011 in the ECA. The corresponding relative increase in fuel costs for all shipping varied between 10% and 63%, depending on the development of the prices of fuels and the use of the sulfur scrubber equipment.

  4. Observed Barium Emission Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenbaek-Nielsen, H. C.; Wescott, E. M.; Hallinan, T. J.

    1993-01-01

    The barium releases from the CRRES satellite have provided an opportunity for verifying theoretically calculated barium ion and neutral emission rates. Spectra of the five Caribbean releases in the summer of 1991 were taken with a spectrograph on board a U.S. Air Force jet aircraft. Because the line of sight release densities are not known, only relative rates could be obtained. The observed relative rates agree well with the theoretically calculated rates and, together with other observations, confirm the earlier detailed theoretical emission rates. The calculated emission rates can thus with good accuracy be used with photometric observations. It has been postulated that charge exchange between neutral barium and oxygen ions represents a significant source for ionization. If so. it should be associated with emissions at 4957.15 A and 5013.00 A, but these emissions were not detected.

  5. Evoked acoustic emission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elberling, C; Parbo, J; Johnsen, N J

    1985-01-01

    Stimulated acoustic emissions were recorded in response to tonal stimuli at 60 dB p.e. SPL in a small group of normal-hearing adults. Power spectral analysis reveals that the evoked activity from each ear contains energy in preferential frequency bands and the change of stimulus frequency has only...... a minor effect on the power spectra, i.e. the maximum jumps from one spectral peak to another. Experiments with deconvolution demonstrate that the emission generating system at least at a fixed intensity can be regarded as being linear and characterized by its impulse response which is similar...... to the emission evoked by click stimuli. It is concluded that significant information is obtained by the click rather than by the tonal stimuli. The click-evoked emissions were also recorded from both ears in a consecutive series of 100 full-term and otherwise normal babies 2-4 days after birth. The emission...

  6. Towards emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, S.

    2001-01-01

    A one-day conference organised by the Institute of Energy was held recently to discuss the way forward for emissions trading of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the UK. In the absence of the Government's draft rules for the scheme, the meeting examined the background to the proposed scheme and its implications for participants. Henry Derwent of the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR) confirmed that emissions trading would happen despite the US rejection of the Kyoto Protocol. Margaret Mogford of the UK Emissions Trading Group explained the special features of the UK scheme, including its voluntary nature, financial incentives from the Government and the use of targets based on units of output. The scheme would be administered by an emissions trading authority and there would be three possible routes to participation (core participants, emissions savings projects and 'unit' participants). Margaret Mogford also outlined the steps for companies interested in participating

  7. Methane emissions from MBT landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyer, K-U; Hupe, K; Stegmann, R

    2013-09-01

    . It is therefore necessary to generate more data in the future in order to calculate more precise methane emission rates from MBT landfills. This is important for the overall calculation of the climate gas production in Germany which is required once a year by the German Government. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Future planning - utopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boernke, F.

    1978-01-01

    Our life develops as the anticipation of future. Everything we wish, hope, plan and carry out and think is or should be related to future and will have its effects in future. The certainty may spread that it is a necessary obligation to learn to find out our actual being more clearly to be able to develop a thinking and acting that is directed to future that has also a total of responsability as its essence. We will later atone for the failed outlooks into future or for only moderate or uncompleted starts of planning. For this reason we should consider that future does not come for its own, not without our demands, not without our acting. Only if our reflection and aspiration, thinking and acting is done with moderate and circumspect sense in the right way it will be a good fundamental for the future. (orig.) [de

  9. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

    2013-01-01

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

  10. Emission characteristics of petrol and diesel driven vehicles in Rewa town

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, R.M.; Gupta, A.K.; Parihar, Sarita

    1993-01-01

    Air pollution by road traffic is likely to be severe in most of the major cities of India, in near future. An emission survey was conducted in Rewa town to obtain the basic data on emission characteristics of inservice vehicles. About 250 two wheelers, 110 cars and 350 diesel vehicles were tested for the emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. Present paper summarizes the data of vehicular emissions observed in this survey and discusses the emission level of different categories of vehicles, in the light of the proposed national standards and the emission standards enforced in developed countries. (author). 9 refs., 4 tabs

  11. The travel-related carbon dioxide emissions of atmospheric researchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stohl, A.

    2008-11-01

    Most atmospheric scientists agree that greenhouse gas emissions have already caused significant changes to the global climate system and that these changes will accelerate in the near future. At the same time, atmospheric scientists who like other scientists rely on international collaboration and information exchange travel a lot and, thereby, cause substantial emissions of CO2. In this paper, the CO2 emissions of the employees working at an atmospheric research institute (the Norwegian Institute for Air Research, NILU) caused by all types of business travel (conference visits, workshops, field campaigns, instrument maintainance, etc.) were calculated for the years 2005 2007. It is estimated that more than 90% of the emissions were caused by air travel, 3% by ground travel and 5% by hotel usage. The travel-related annual emissions were between 1.9 and 2.4 t CO2 per employee or between 3.9 and 5.5 t CO2 per scientist. For comparison, the total annual per capita CO2 emissions are 4.5 t worldwide, 1.2 t for India, 3.8 t for China, 5.9 t for Sweden and 19.1 t for Norway. The travel-related CO2 emissions of a NILU scientist, occurring in 24 days of a year on average, exceed the global average annual per capita emission. Norway's per-capita CO2 emissions are among the highest in the world, mostly because of the emissions from the oil industry. If the emissions per NILU scientist derived in this paper are taken as representative for the average Norwegian researcher, travel by Norwegian scientists would nevertheless account for a substantial 0.2% of Norway's total CO2 emissions. Since most of the travel-related emissions are due to air travel, water vapor emissions, ozone production and contrail formation further increase the relative importance of NILU's travel in terms of radiative forcing.

  12. India Co2 Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharan, S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2010-12-01

    Is there a way to find a balance between improving living conditions for the people on the margins and also reducing emissions while limiting our negative impacts on the climate? This is a critical question today because there are many arguments between developed and developing countries about who is responsible for global warming. Developed countries believe that it is the poor countries because they are not educated enough to know about how they are affecting the climate. While the developing countries hold wealthy nations responsible because they are using the most resources. However it is important to acknowledge the fact that if there was no gap in between the developed and developing countries our emissions total would be much higher. This “gap” has been a natural controlling factor in climate change. This is why I wanted to see if I could plot what it would look like if a developing country such as India were to produce emissions that the US or Switzerland or Norway are producing as developed countries. India has a population total of 1.1 billion compared to the US with only 298 million, Switzerland with 7.5 million, and Norway with 4.6 million people. When the population is compared to the emissions output in metric tons, per capita, India produced the least emissions out of these countries, 1.4 tons per person while having the second largest population in the world, while the US produced 19 tons per capita, Switzerland produced 5.6 and Norway produced 8.7 tons per capita in 2006. The emissions rate is growing every year and increases widely and globally. If India was producing emissions that equal Norway, Switzerland and the US the total emissions it would be producing annually would be 9 billion for Norway, 6 billion for Switzerland and 20 billion emissions for the US, all in the year 2006 alone. This shows how the balance between countries with huge populations and very little emission output and average population and high emission out put has

  13. Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

    1980-03-01

    This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, including uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking, a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

  14. Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

    1980-03-01

    This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, including uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking, a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

  15. Airborne radioactive emission control technology. Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skoski, L.; Berlin, R.; Corby, D.; Clancy, J.; Hoopes, G.

    1980-03-01

    This report reviews the current and future control technology for airborne emissions from a wide variety of industries/facilities, includimg uranium mining and milling, other nuclear fuel cycle facilities, other NRC-licensed and DOE facilities, fossil fuel facilities, selected metal and non-metal extraction industries, and others. Where specific radioactivity control technology is lacking a description of any existing control technology is given. Future control technology is assessed in terms of improvements to equipment performance and process alterations. A catalogue of investigated research on advanced control technologies is presented

  16. Sustaining the future: the role of nuclear power in meeting future world energy needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.; Sun, Y.

    2003-01-01

    A description is given of recently informed analyses showing the potential that nuclear power has in meeting global energy demands. For both the electricity and transportation sectors, we can quantify the beneficial effects on the environment, and we show how nuclear power deserves credit for its role in assisting future world energy, environmental and economic sustainability. The continuing expansion of the world's and Asia's energy needs, coupled with the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and other emissions, will require new approaches for large scale energy production and use. This is particularly important for China and Asia with respect to meeting both the energy demand and sustainability challenges. We show and explore the role of nuclear power for large-scale energy applications, including electricity production and hydrogen for transportation. Advanced nuclear technologies, such as those like CANDU's next generation ACR, can meet future global energy market needs, avoid emissions, and mitigate the potential for global climate change. We use the latest IPCC Scenarios out to the year 2100 as a base case, but correct them to examine the sensitivity to large scale nuclear and hydrogen fuel penetration. We show a significant impact of nuclear energy on energy market penetration, and in reducing GHGs and other emissions in the coming century, particularly in the industrial developing world and in Asia. This is achieved without needing emissions credits, as are used or needed as economic support for other sources, or for subsidies via emissions trading schemes. Nuclear power offers the relatively emissions-free means, both to provide electricity for traditional applications and, by electrolytic production of hydrogen, to extend its use deep into the transportation sector. For the published IPCC Marker Scenarios for Asia we show the reduction in GHG emissions when electrolysis using electricity from nuclear power assists the introduction of hydrogen as a fuel

  17. Energy Sources Management and Future Automotive Technologies: Environmental Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Mariasiu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the environmental impact created through the introduction of introducing new technologies in transportation domain. New electric vehicles are considered zero-emission vehicles (ZEV. However, electricity produced in power plants is still predominantly based on fossil fuel usage (required for recharge electric vehicle batteries and thus directly affects the quantity of pollutant emissions and greenhouse gases (CO2, NOx and SOx. Given the structure of EU-wide energy sources used for electricity generation, the potential pollutant emissions stemming from these energy sources, related to energy consumption of an electric vehicle, was determined under the projected environmental impact of specific market penetration of electric vehicles. In addition to the overall impact at the EU level, were identified the countries for which the use of electric vehicles is (or not feasible in terms of reaching the lower values ​​of future emissions compared to the present and future European standards.

  18. Ship emissions and their externalities for Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzannatos, Ernestos

    2010-06-01

    The existing and emerging international and European policy framework for the reduction of ship exhaust emissions dictates the need to produce reliable national, regional and global inventories in order to monitor emission trends and consequently provide the necessary support for future policy making. Furthermore, the inventories of ship exhaust emissions constitute the basis upon which their external costs are estimated in an attempt to highlight the economic burden they impose upon the society and facilitate the cost-benefit analysis of the proposed emission abatement technologies, operational measures and market-based instruments prior to their implementation. The case of Greece is of particular interest mainly because the dense ship traffic within the Greek seas directly imposes the impact of its exhaust emission pollutants (NO x, SO 2 and PM) upon the highly populated, physically sensitive and culturally precious Greek coastline, as well as upon the land and seas of Greece in general, whereas the contribution of Greece in the global CO 2 inventory at a time of climatic change awareness cannot be ignored. In this context, this paper presents the contribution of Greece in ship exhaust emissions of CO 2, NO x, SO 2 and PM from domestic and international shipping over the last 25 years (1984-2008), utilizing the fuel-based (fuel sales) emission methodology. Furthermore, the ship exhaust emissions generated within the Greek seas and their externalities are estimated for the year 2008, through utilizing the fuel-based (fuel sales) approach for domestic shipping and the activity-based (ship traffic) approach for international shipping. On this basis, it was found that during the 1984 to 2008 period the fuel-based (fuel sales) ship emission inventory for Greece increased at an average annual rate of 2.85%. In 2008, the CO 2, NO x, SO 2 and PM emissions reached 12.9 million tons (of which 12.4 million tons of CO 2) and their externalities were found to be around 3

  19. CO2 emissions of nuclear electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wissel, Steffen; Mayer-Spohn, Oliver; Fahl, Ulrich; Blesl, Markus; Voss, Alfred

    2008-01-01

    A survey of LCA studies on nuclear electricity generation revealed life cycle CO 2 emissions ranging between 3 g/kWhe to 60 g/kWhe and above. Firstly, this paper points out the discrepancies in studies by estimating the CO 2 emissions of nuclear power generation. Secondly, the paper sets out to provide critical review of future developments of the fuel cycle for light water reactors and illustrates the impact of uncertainties on the specific CO 2 emissions of nuclear electricity generation. Each step in the fuel cycle will be considered and with regard to the CO 2 emissions analysed. Thereby different assumptions and uncertainty levels are determined for the nuclear fuel cycle. With the impacts of low uranium ore grades for mining and milling as well as higher burn-up rates future fuel characteristics are considered. Sensitivity analyses are performed for all fuel processing steps, for different technical specifications of light water reactors as well as for further external frame conditions. (authors)

  20. Managing CO2 emissions in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obioh, I.B.; Oluwole, A.F.; Akeredolu, F.A.

    1994-01-01

    The energy resources in Nigeria are nearly equally divided between fossil fuels and biofuels. The increasing pressure on them, following expected increased population growth, may lead to substantial emissions of carbon into the atmosphere. Additionally agricultural and forestry management practices in vogue are those related to savannah burning and rotational bush fallow systems, which have been clearly implicated as important sources of CO 2 and trace gases. An integrated model for the prediction of future CO 2 emissions based on fossil fuels and biomass fuels requirements, rates of deforestation and other land-use indices is presented. This is further based on trends in population and economic growth up to the year 2025, with a base year in 1988. A coupled carbon cycle-climate model based on the contribution of CO 2 and other trace gases is established from the proportions of integrated global warming effects for a 20-year averaging time using the product of global warming potential (GWP) and total emissions. An energy-technology inventory approach to optimal resources management is used as a tool for establishing the future scope of reducing the CO 2 emissions through improved fossil fuel energy efficiencies. Scenarios for reduction based on gradual to swift shifts from biomass to fossil and renewable fuels are presented together with expected policy options required to effect them

  1. Carbon emissions in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Zhu [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States). Sustainability Science Program

    2016-07-01

    This study analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern and processes of China's energy-related carbon emissions. Based on extensive quantitative analysis, it outlines the character and trajectory of China's energy-related carbon emissions during the period 1995-2010, examining the distribution pattern of China's carbon emissions from regional and sectoral perspectives and revealing the driving factors of China's soaring emission increase. Further, the book investigates the supply chain carbon emissions (the carbon footprints) of China's industrial sectors. Anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious challenges currently facing humankind. China is the world's largest developing country, top primary energy consumer and carbon emitter. Achieving both economic growth and environmental conservation is the country's twofold challenge. Understanding the status, features and driving forces of China's energy-related carbon emissions is a critical aspect of attaining global sustainability. This work, for the first time, presents both key findings on and a systematic evaluation of China's carbon emissions from energy consumption. The results have important implications for global carbon budgets and burden-sharing with regard to climate change mitigation. The book will be of great interest to readers around the world, as it addresses a topic of truly global significance.

  2. Emissions of road transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maekelae, K.; Tuominen, A.

    2001-01-01

    Information on the emissions and energy consumption of different vehicles per transported amount of goods has up to last years been minimal. The unit emissions mean the amount of harmful compounds in the flue gases of a vehicle per service, time or energy unit. National three-year MOBILE 2-research program, started in 1999, determines the unit emissions of all the traffic sectors in Finland. VTT Building and Transport mainly carry out the research, but the Institute of Transportation Engineering of the Tampere University of Technology (TTKK) is responsible for a part of the research. The objective of the project is to create common rules for the determination of unit emissions values, and to determine the best possible values for Finnish conditions. Unit emission data is mainly needed for evaluation of the environmental impacts of production plants and other activities containing transportation of commodities. At the web sites of VTT Building and Transport there are about 60 pages of text and tables (about 4000 values) on unit emissions. The URL of the pages is http://www.vtt.fi/rte/projects/lipastoe/index.htm. These web pages present data on all the transportation sectors (road, railroad, water and air transportation), most of the materials concerning road transportation. Following compounds and values are included: CO, HC, NO x , particulates, SO 2 , CO 2 and energy consumption. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions values have also been presented

  3. Acoustic emission from beryllium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heiple, C.R.; Adams, R.O.

    1976-01-01

    The acoustic emission from both powder and ingot source beryllium has been measured as a function of strain and prior heat treatment. Most measurements were made during tensile deformation, but a limited number of compression tests have also been performed. The acoustic emission observed was of the burst type, with little or no contribution from continuous type emission. The emission was characterized by the variation of burst rate and average energy per burst as a function of strain. The tensile behavior was qualitatively similar for all the materials tested. Burst rate maxima centered roughly at 0.1 percent and 1.0 percent plastic strain were observed. The magnitude but not the strain at the low strain burst rate peak was very sensitive to prior thermal treatment, while the higher strain burst rate peak was insensitive to prior heat treatment. An energy per burst maximum was observed at 0.2 percent plastic strain, the magnitude of which was moderately sensitive to heat treatment. The Kaiser effect is observed in the material studied. Emission during compression was similar to that observed in tension. The acoustic emission observed is attributed to dislocation motion, as proposed by James and Carpenter for LiF, NaCl, and Zn. Metallographic studies of the beryllium at various strains have ruled out microcracking and twin formation as major contributors to the acoustic emission

  4. Hydrogen, energy of the future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alleau, Th.

    2007-01-01

    A cheap, non-polluting energy with no greenhouse gas emissions and unlimited resources? This is towards this fantastic future that this book brings us, analyzing the complex but promising question of hydrogen. The scientific and technical aspects of production, transport, storage and distribution raised by hydrogen are thoroughly reviewed. Content: I) Energy, which solutions?: 1 - hydrogen, a future; 2 - hydrogen, a foreseeable solution?; II) Hydrogen, an energy vector: 3 - characteristics of hydrogen (physical data, quality and drawbacks); 4 - hydrogen production (from fossil fuels, from water, from biomass, bio-hydrogen generation); 5 - transport, storage and distribution of hydrogen; 6 - hydrogen cost (production, storage, transport and distribution costs); III) Fuel cells and ITER, utopias?: 7 - molecular hydrogen uses (thermal engines and fuel cells); 8 - hydrogen and fusion (hydrogen isotopes, thermonuclear reaction, ITER project, fusion and wastes); IV) Hydrogen acceptability: 9 - risk acceptability; 10 - standards and regulations; 11 - national, European and international policies about hydrogen; 12 - big demonstration projects in France and in the rest of the world; conclusion. (J.S.)

  5. Managing Air Quality - Emissions Inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page describes the role of emission inventories in the air quality management process, a description of how emission inventories are developed, and where U.S. emission inventory information can be found.

  6. Electronic Reporting of Air Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA regulations require affected sources to perform emissions source tests, conduct continuous emissions monitoring, and submit compliance and emissions reports. This site provides technical resources and access for providing such submissions.

  7. National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory contains information on direct emissions of greenhouse gases as well as indirect or potential emissions of greenhouse...

  8. Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogenic Emission Inventory System (BEIS) estimates volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from vegetation and nitric oxide (NO) emission from soils. Recent BEIS development has been restricted to the SMOKE system

  9. Reducing global NOx emissions: developing advanced energy and transportation technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Michael J; Jones, Brian M

    2002-03-01

    Globally, energy demand is projected to continue to increase well into the future. As a result, global NOx emissions are projected to continue on an upward trend for the foreseeable future as developing countries increase their standards of living. While the US has experienced improvements in reducing NOx emissions from stationary and mobile sources to reduce ozone, further progress is needed to reduce the health and ecosystem impacts associated with NOx emissions. In other parts of the world, (in developing countries in particular) NOx emissions have been increasing steadily with the growth in demand for electricity and transportation. Advancements in energy and transportation technologies may help avoid this increase in emissions if appropriate policies are implemented. This paper evaluates commercially available power generation and transportation technologies that produce fewer NOx emissions than conventional technologies, and advanced technologies that are on the 10-year commercialization horizon. Various policy approaches will be evaluated which can be implemented on the regional, national and international levels to promote these advanced technologies and ultimately reduce NOx emissions. The concept of the technology leap is offered as a possibility for the developing world to avoid the projected increases in NOx emissions.

  10. Mercury emissions from India and South East Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-10-01

    Mercury is an element of growing global concern. The United Nations Environment Programme plans to finalise a new global legally binding instrument on mercury by 2013, to coordinate actions to reduce emissions of mercury. It has been well established that Asia represents not only the region contributing to greatest current mercury emissions but also the region with the fastest growth rate. Despite this, emissions from human activities in most countries in this region are not well characterised. This report summarises the limited data available on mercury emissions from India, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. These countries were specifically selected as they are areas of potentially significant growth in energy use in the near future. Information is given on the major sources of mercury in these countries, concentrating mostly on coal combustion and the non-ferrous metal industry. Although it is beyond the scope of this report to make new estimates for emissions, information is provided on current fossil fuel use and industrial activity as well as projections for these sectors to 2020 to give an indication of the general scale of these sources and the potential for increased emissions in the future. Some countries have established regulations or action plans on emissions and these are summarised where possible. Recommendations are then made for potential actions which could be taken in each country to encourage action and achieve economic reduction in mercury emissions.

  11. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  12. GHG emissions and mitigation potential in Indian agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, Sylvia; Feliciano, Diana; Sapkota, Tek; Hillier, Jon; Smith, Pete; Stirling, Clare

    2016-04-01

    India is one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, accounting for about 5% of global emissions with further increases expected in the future. The Government of India aims to reduce emission intensities by 20-25% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. In a recent departure from past practice the reconvened Council on Climate Change stated that climate change in agriculture would include a component that would focus on reducing emissions in agriculture, particularly methane and nitrous oxide emissions. To develop recommendations for mitigation in agriculture in India, a baseline study is presented to analyse the GHG emissions from agriculture for current management (Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the government of India). This analysis is done for the two states Bihar and Haryana, which differ in their management and practises based on different climate and policies. This first analysis shows were the highest GHG emissions in agriculture is produced and were the highest mitigation potential might be. The GHG emissions and mitigation potential are calculated using the CCAFS Mitigation Option Tool (CCAFS-MOT) (https://ccafs.cgiar.org/mitigation-option-tool-agriculture#.VpTnWL826d4) with modifications for the special modelling. In a second step, stakeholder meetings provided a wide range of possible and definite scenarios (management, policy, technology, costs, etc.) for the future to mitigate emissions in agriculture as well as how to increase productivity. These information were used to create scenarios to give estimates for the mitigation potential in agriculture for India in 2020.

  13. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  14. Emission Abatement System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromberg, Leslie; Cohn, Daniel R.; Rabinovich, Alexander

    2003-05-13

    Emission abatement system. The system includes a source of emissions and a catalyst for receiving the emissions. Suitable catalysts are absorber catalysts and selective catalytic reduction catalysts. A plasma fuel converter generates a reducing gas from a fuel source and is connected to deliver the reducing gas into contact with the absorber catalyst for regenerating the catalyst. A preferred reducing gas is a hydrogen rich gas and a preferred plasma fuel converter is a plasmatron. It is also preferred that the absorber catalyst be adapted for absorbing NO.sub.x.

  15. Emissions scenario: a final response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J. (and others)

    2004-01-01

    This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr Castles and Mr Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C and H) in this Journal (vol. 14, no. 2 and 3, and no. 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both ''plausible and well attested in economic history'' (C and H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C and H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. (author)

  16. Emissions scenarios: a final response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gruebler, A.; Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J. (and others)

    2004-01-01

    This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C and H) in this Journal (vol 14, no 2 and 3, and no 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both 'plausible and well attested in economic history' (C and H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C and H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. (author)

  17. Fourier transform spectroscopy for future planetary missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasunas, John C.; Hewagama, Tilak; Kolasinski, John R.; Kostiuk, Theodor

    2015-11-01

    Thermal-emission infrared spectroscopy is a powerful tool for exploring the composition, temperature structure, and dynamics of planetary atmospheres; and the temperature of solid surfaces. A host of Fourier transform spectrometers (FTS) such as Mariner IRIS, Voyager IRIS, and Cassini CIRS from NASA Goddard have made and continue to make important new discoveries throughout the solar system.Future FTS instruments will have to be more sensitive (when we concentrate on the colder, outer reaches of the solar system), and less massive and less power-hungry as we cope with decreasing resource allotments for future planetary science instruments. With this in mind, NASA Goddard was funded via the Planetary Instrument Definition and Development Progrem (PIDDP) to develop CIRS-lite, a smaller version of the CIRS FTS for future planetary missions. Following the initial validation of CIRS-lite operation in the laboratory, we have been acquiring atmospheric data in the 8-12 micron window at the 1.2 m telescope at the Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory (GGAO) in Greenbelt, MD. Targets so far have included Earth's atmosphere (in emission, and in absorption against the moon), and Venus.We will present the roadmap for making CIRS-lite a viable candidate for future planetary missions.

  18. Constructing alternative futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Robert Huggett; John G. Greis

    2013-01-01

    The desired product of the Southern Forest Futures Project is a mechanism that will help southerners think about and prepare for future changes in their forests and the benefits they provide. Because any single projection of the world’s (or a region’s) biological, physical, and social systems has a high probability of being incorrect, the Futures Project instead...

  19. Future Facilities Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albert De Roeck, Rolf Ent

    2009-10-01

    For the session on future facilities at DIS09 discussions were organized on DIS related measurements that can be expected in the near and medium –or perhaps far– future, including plans from JLab, CERN and FNAL fixed target experiments, possible measurements and detector upgrades at RHIC, as well as the plans for possible future electron proton/ion colliders such as the EIC and the LHeC project.

  20. The primordial helium abundance from updated emissivities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D.; Porter, R.L.

    2013-01-01

    Observations of metal-poor extragalactic H II regions allow the determination of the primordial helium abundance, Y p . The He I emissivities are the foundation of the model of the H II region's emission. Porter, Ferland, Storey, and Detisch (2012) have recently published updated He I emissivities based on improved photoionization cross-sections. We incorporate these new atomic data and update our recent Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of the dataset published by Izotov, Thuan, and Stasi'nska (2007). As before, cuts are made to promote quality and reliability, and only solutions which fit the data within 95% confidence level are used to determine the primordial He abundance. The previously qualifying dataset is almost entirely retained and with strong concordance between the physical parameters. Overall, an upward bias from the new emissivities leads to a decrease in Y p . In addition, we find a general trend to larger uncertainties in individual objects (due to changes in the emissivities) and an increased variance (due to additional objects included). From a regression to zero metallicity, we determine Y p = 0.2465 ± 0.0097, in good agreement with the BBN result, Y p = 0.2485 ± 0.0002, based on the Planck determination of the baryon density. In the future, a better understanding of why a large fraction of spectra are not well fit by the model will be crucial to achieving an increase in the precision of the primordial helium abundance determination

  1. High-speed Civil Transport Aircraft Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miake-Lye, Richard C.; Matulaitis, J. A.; Krause, F. H.; Dodds, Willard J.; Albers, Martin; Hourmouziadis, J.; Hasel, K. L.; Lohmann, R. P.; Stander, C.; Gerstle, John H.

    1992-01-01

    Estimates are given for the emissions from a proposed high speed civil transport (HSCT). This advanced technology supersonic aircraft would fly in the lower stratosphere at a speed of roughly Mach 1.6 to 3.2 (470 to 950 m/sec or 920 to 1850 knots). Because it would fly in the stratosphere at an altitude in the range of 15 to 23 km commensurate with its design speed, its exhaust effluents could perturb the chemical balance in the upper atmosphere. The first step in determining the nature and magnitude of any chemical changes in the atmosphere resulting from these proposed aircraft is to identify and quantify the chemically important species they emit. Relevant earlier work is summarized, dating back to the Climatic Impact Assessment Program of the early 1970s and current propulsion research efforts. Estimates are provided of the chemical composition of an HSCT's exhaust, and these emission indices are presented. Other aircraft emissions that are not due to combustion processes are also summarized; these emissions are found to be much smaller than the exhaust emissions. Future advances in propulsion technology, in experimental measurement techniques, and in understanding upper atmospheric chemistry may affect these estimates of the amounts of trace exhaust species or their relative importance.

  2. Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

    2012-07-14

    Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Flicker emission levels from wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, P.; Tande, J.O.; Soendergaard, L.M.

    1996-01-01

    The paper presents and verifies a method to calculate the flicker emission levels from wind turbines connected to power distribution systems. The idea of the method is to measure the flicker emission level from a wind turbine with reference conditions and to use these measurements to calculate a flicker coefficient for that specific wind turbine type. This can be done as a part of the approval of a wind turbine type. The flicker coefficient can then be used to calculate the flicker emission level from any wind turbine of that type with any grid and wind conditions. A simple method to determine the total flicker emission level from a number of wind turbines is also presented and verified. The flicker coefficient method is applied to 4 Danish wind turbine types representing stall and pitch control and nominal power from 300 kW to 500 kW. The conclusion is that the flicker emission in certain cases exceeds limits which are expected to be normative in the future. (author)

  4. The primordial helium abundance from updated emissivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Porter, R. L.; Skillman, Evan D.

    2013-11-01

    Observations of metal-poor extragalactic H II regions allow the determination of the primordial helium abundance, Yp. The He I emissivities are the foundation of the model of the H II region's emission. Porter, Ferland, Storey, & Detisch (2012) have recently published updated He I emissivities based on improved photoionization cross-sections. We incorporate these new atomic data and update our recent Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis of the dataset published by Izotov, Thuan, & Stasi'nska (2007). As before, cuts are made to promote quality and reliability, and only solutions which fit the data within 95% confidence level are used to determine the primordial He abundance. The previously qualifying dataset is almost entirely retained and with strong concordance between the physical parameters. Overall, an upward bias from the new emissivities leads to a decrease in Yp. In addition, we find a general trend to larger uncertainties in individual objects (due to changes in the emissivities) and an increased variance (due to additional objects included). From a regression to zero metallicity, we determine Yp = 0.2465 ± 0.0097, in good agreement with the BBN result, Yp = 0.2485 ± 0.0002, based on the Planck determination of the baryon density. In the future, a better understanding of why a large fraction of spectra are not well fit by the model will be crucial to achieving an increase in the precision of the primordial helium abundance determination.

  5. Modeling emissions for three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry transport models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthias, Volker; Arndt, Jan A; Aulinger, Armin; Bieser, Johannes; Denier Van Der Gon, Hugo; Kranenburg, Richard; Kuenen, Jeroen; Neumann, Daniel; Pouliot, George; Quante, Markus

    2018-01-24

    methods to distribute the emissions in time and space need to be replaced by sophisticated emission models in order to improve the CTM results. New methods, e.g. for ammonia emissions, provide grid cell dependent temporal profiles. In the future, large data fields from traffic observations or satellite observations could be used for more detailed emission data.

  6. Positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iio, Masahiro

    1982-01-01

    Utilization of positron emission tomography was reviewed in relation to construction and planned construction of small-size medical cyclotrons, planned construction of positron cameras and utilization of short-lived radionuclides. (Chiba, N.)

  7. Cardiac positron emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eftekhari, M.; Ejmalian, G.

    2003-01-01

    Positron emission tomography is an intrinsically tool that provide a unique and unparalleled approach for clinicians and researchers to interrogate the heart noninvasively. The ability to label substances of physiological interest with positron-emitting radioisotopes has permitted insight into normal blood flow and metabolism and the alterations that occur with disease states. Positron emission tomography of the heart has evolved as a unique, noninvasive approach for the assessment of myocardial perfusion, metabolism, and function. Because of the intrinsic quantitative nature of positron emission tomography measurements as well as the diverse compounds that can be labeled with positron- emitting radioisotopes, studies with positron emission tomography have provided rich insight into the physiology of the heart under diverse conditions

  8. National Emission Inventory (NEI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data exchange allows states to submit data to the US Environmental Protection Agency's National Emissions Inventory (NEI). NEI is a national database of air...

  9. Nanoscale Terahertz Emission Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Pernille Klarskov; Kim, Hyewon; Colvin, Vicki L.

    By utilizing plasmonic coupling to an AFM probe, we demonstrate Laser Terahertz Emission Nanoscopy (LTEN) with sub-20 nm resolution. We demonstrate the resolution by imaging a single gold nanorod on an InAs substrate....

  10. Pulsar Emission Spectrum

    OpenAIRE

    Gruzinov, Andrei

    2013-01-01

    Emission spectrum is calculated for a weak axisymmetric pulsar. Also calculated are the observed spectrum, efficiency, and the observed efficiency. The underlying flow of electrons and positrons turns out to be curiously intricate.

  11. 2011 NATA - Emissions Sources

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset includes all emissions sources that were modeled in the 2011 National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA), inlcluding point, nonpoint, and mobile sources, and...

  12. Biogenic Emission Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biogenic emissions sources come from natural sources and need to accounted for in photochemical grid models. They are computed using a model which utilizes spatial information on vegetation and land use.

  13. Radiated Emissions Test Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-02

    1. Draft Department of Transportation (DOT) Test Plan to Develop : Interference Tolerance Masks for GNSS Receivers in the L1 : Radiofrequency Band (1559 1610 MHz) provides high level : overview of radiated emissions test setup : 2. Presenta...

  14. Field emission electron source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zettl, Alexander Karlwalter; Cohen, Marvin Lou

    2000-01-01

    A novel field emitter material, field emission electron source, and commercially feasible fabrication method is described. The inventive field emission electron source produces reliable electron currents of up to 400 mA/cm.sup.2 at 200 volts. The emitter is robust and the current it produces is not sensitive to variability of vacuum or the distance between the emitter tip and the cathode. The novel emitter has a sharp turn-on near 100 volts.

  15. Emission spectrochemical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rives, R.D.; Bruks, R.R.

    1983-01-01

    The emission spectrochemical method of analysis based on the fact that atoms of elements can be excited in the electric arc or in the laser beam and will emit radiation with characteristic wave lengths is considered. The review contains the data on spectrochemical analysis, of liquids geological materials, scheme of laser microprobe. The main characteristics of emission spectroscopy, atomic absorption spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescent analysis, are aeneralized

  16. Aircraft specific exhaust emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lecht, M.; Deidewig, F.; Doepelheuer, A. [Deutsche Forschungsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR), Koeln (Germany). Inst. fuer Antriebstechnik

    1997-12-01

    The objective of this work to calculate essential species of aircraft emissions has been approached by a combination of different tasks. First of all engine performance and emission correlation has been modelled taking sea level static measurements from the engine certification process as a reference. At second a flight simulation program has been modified to couple aircraft and engine performance along a flight mission profile. By this for a selected number of aircraft/engine combinations the emissions of NO{sub x}, CO and HC as well as fuel burn for short, medium and long haul flights have been calculated and finally adapted to a specified format of flight distance and altitude increments. Sensitivity studies of the change of emissions along the cruise section showed a 30% decrease of the NO{sub x} emission rate until the end of cruise. Differences of ambient air temperature from ISA conditions will have a substantial impact on NO{sub x}, CO and HC emissions rather than on mission fuel. (orig.) 144 figs., 42 tabs., 497 refs.

  17. Critical emission from a high-spin black hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupsasca, Alexandru; Porfyriadis, Achilleas P.; Shi, Yichen

    2018-03-01

    We consider a rapidly spinning black hole surrounded by an equatorial, geometrically thin, slowly accreting disk that is stationary and axisymmetric. We analytically compute the broadening of electromagnetic line emissions from the innermost part of the disk, which resides in the near-horizon region. The result is independent of the disk's surface emissivity and therefore universal. This is an example of critical behavior in astronomy that is potentially observable by current or future telescopes.

  18. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

    2016-10-01

    An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important

  19. Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Pacyna

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013 and future (2035 air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions, including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year−1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %, followed by biomass burning (9 %. A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has

  20. Hydrogen/Air Fuel Nozzle Emissions Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Timothy D.

    2001-01-01

    The use of hydrogen combustion for aircraft gas turbine engines provides significant opportunities to reduce harmful exhaust emissions. Hydrogen has many advantages (no CO2 production, high reaction rates, high heating value, and future availability), along with some disadvantages (high current cost of production and storage, high volume per BTU, and an unknown safety profile when in wide use). One of the primary reasons for switching to hydrogen is the elimination of CO2 emissions. Also, with hydrogen, design challenges such as fuel coking in the fuel nozzle and particulate emissions are no longer an issue. However, because it takes place at high temperatures, hydrogen-air combustion can still produce significant levels of NOx emissions. Much of the current research into conventional hydrocarbon-fueled aircraft gas turbine combustors is focused on NOx reduction methods. The Zero CO2 Emission Technology (ZCET) hydrogen combustion project will focus on meeting the Office of Aerospace Technology goal 2 within pillar one for Global Civil Aviation reducing the emissions of future aircraft by a factor of 3 within 10 years and by a factor of 5 within 25 years. Recent advances in hydrocarbon-based gas turbine combustion components have expanded the horizons for fuel nozzle development. Both new fluid designs and manufacturing technologies have led to the development of fuel nozzles that significantly reduce aircraft emissions. The goal of the ZCET program is to mesh the current technology of Lean Direct Injection and rocket injectors to provide quick mixing, low emissions, and high-performance fuel nozzle designs. An experimental program is planned to investigate the fuel nozzle concepts in a flametube test rig. Currently, a hydrogen system is being installed in cell 23 at NASA Glenn Research Center's Research Combustion Laboratory. Testing will be conducted on a variety of fuel nozzle concepts up to combustion pressures of 350 psia and inlet air temperatures of 1200 F

  1. Future use of IT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Howard, Rob

    1999-01-01

    problems with visions of future developments in IT in building. Need for change in business processes in order to maximise the benefits of IT......problems with visions of future developments in IT in building. Need for change in business processes in order to maximise the benefits of IT...

  2. (Some) Computer Futures: Mainframes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Earl C.

    Possible futures for the world of mainframe computers can be forecast through studies identifying forces of change and their impact on current trends. Some new prospects for the future have been generated by advances in information technology; for example, recent United States successes in applied artificial intelligence (AI) have created new…

  3. The Futuring Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmer L. Albright

    1987-01-01

    Futuring" is becoming a widely accepted approach to organization management and goal setting. Strategic planners for the United States military as well as the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, use Futuring to develop action plans and organizational directions for their agencies.

  4. Considering a healthy future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van Jannette

    2016-01-01

    Trade-offs between current and future consequences are characteristic for the domain of health behavior. Therefore, both eating and exercising behavior could be determined by time orientation, which refers to an individual’s general orientation toward the present or the future. The main aim of

  5. Backup to the Future

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmus, Handberg; Conrad, Anders S.; Svendsen, Michael

    2017-01-01

    What if something horrible happens in the future? Great Scott! Do we have a backup? Is a backup even enough? At the Kepler Asteroseismic Science Operations Center (KASOC) we have a goal that all data and information from Kepler and KASC is preserved for the future. The benchmark is that the data...

  6. The Future as Fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Lane

    Because good future studies and good fiction have a great deal in common, futurists need to recognize and apply the skills of word artists from all genres, particularly novelists and short-story writers. One form of science fiction that futurists could use is the scenario, which is an exploration of an alternative future. A good scenario should be…

  7. Gateway to the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiJulio, Betsy

    2012-01-01

    "Gateway to the Future" pairs a painting of a gateway constructed from children's building blocks with an ink drawing of a personal symbol on a collaged background. The main objective of this lesson is to create a metaphoric artwork about moving from the present through a symbolic portal to the future. So, space--foreground, middle ground, and…

  8. Future leisure environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood L. Shafer; George H. Moeller; Russell E. Getty

    1974-01-01

    As an aid to policy- and decision-making about future environmental problems, a panel of experts was asked to predict the probabilities of future events associated with natural-resource management, wildland-recreation management, environmental pollution, population-workforce-leisure, and urban environments. Though some of the predictions projected to the year 2050 may...

  9. Futurism 1984: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, Florence F.

    This overview of futurism defines it as a movement believing that a positive future world may be created through wise decision-making and futuristic planning. Present societal conditions have provided an impetus for a futuristic focus, and various authors, think tanks, techniques, and organizations have contributed to the wide acclaim and respect…

  10. Futurism in Education: Methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hencley, Stephen P.; Yates, James R.

    This book is one expression of the trend to achieve a more systematic study of the future within the specific context of educational futures and their environments. It is intended to bring to educational leaders in a practical manner many of the technological forecasting techniques previously familiar only to science, the military, and industry.…

  11. Futurism and Communication Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redfield, James

    1973-01-01

    Organized study of possible futures of all types of communication should be initiated immediately in high schools, colleges, and advanced research institutions. Interpersonal communication particularly requires attention since scholarly predictions for future social change involve the reduction of meaningful interpersonal relationships. If…

  12. Futurism in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazio, Linda S.

    1988-01-01

    The concept of "futurism" in higher education program planning, self-study and goal setting is taking on increasing significance. Two research techniques for "futures forecasting" are discussed: the Delphi and the Scenario. These techniques have been used successfully in institutional self-study and program evaluation.…

  13. Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

  14. Dependence of riverine nitrous oxide emissions on dissolved oxygen levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosamond, Madeline S.; Thuss, Simon J.; Schiff, Sherry L.

    2012-10-01

    Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas, and it destroys stratospheric ozone. Seventeen per cent of agricultural nitrous oxide emissions come from the production of nitrous oxide in streams, rivers and estuaries, in turn a result of inorganic nitrogen input through leaching, runoff and sewage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and global nitrous oxide budgets assume that riverine nitrous oxide emissions increase linearly with dissolved inorganic nitrogen loads, but data are sparse and conflicting. Here we report measurements over two years of nitrous oxide emissions in the Grand River, Canada, a seventh-order temperate river that is affected by agricultural runoff and outflow from a waste-water treatment plant. Emissions were disproportionately high in urban areas and during nocturnal summer periods. Moreover, annual emission estimates that are based on dissolved inorganic nitrogen loads overestimated the measured emissions in a wet year and underestimated them in a dry year. We found no correlations of nitrous oxide emissions with nitrate or dissolved inorganic nitrogen, but detected negative correlations with dissolved oxygen, suggesting that nitrate concentrations did not limit emissions. We conclude that future increases in nitrate export to rivers will not necessarily lead to higher nitrous oxide emissions, but more widespread hypoxia most likely will.

  15. GHG Emissions, Economic Growth and Urbanization: A Spatial Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Li

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available To gain a greater understanding of the spatial spillover effect of greenhouse gas emissions and their influencing factors, this paper provides a spatial analysis of four gas pollutants (CO2 emissions, SO2 emissions, NOx emissions, and dust emissions. Focusing on China, the paper also explores whether the four gas pollutants are influenced by the emissions of neighboring regions and other possible sources. The paper uses a global spatial autocorrelation analysis, local spatial association analysis and spatial lag model for empirical work. The results suggest that CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions show significant positive results for both the spatial correlation and space cluster effect in provincial space distribution.CO2 and NOx emissions have a significant positive spillover effect, while the SO2 emissions’ spatial spillover effect is positive but not significant. Economic growth and urbanization are the key determinants of CO2, dust, and NOx emissions, while energy efficiency and industrialization do not appear to play a role. This raises questions about the method of examining the spatial relationship between gas pollution, economic growth and urbanization in the future.

  16. Ammonia emission inventory for the state of Wyoming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchstetter, Thomas W.; Maser, Colette R.; Brown, Nancy J.

    2003-12-17

    Ammonia (NH{sub 3}) is the only significant gaseous base in the atmosphere and it has a variety of impacts as an atmospheric pollutant, including the formation of secondary aerosol particles: ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. NH{sub 3} preferentially forms ammonium sulfate; consequently ammonium nitrate aerosol formation may be limited by the availability of NH{sub 3}. Understanding the impact of emissions of oxides of sulfur and nitrogen on visibility, therefore, requires accurately determined ammonia emission inventories for use in air quality models, upon which regulatory and policy decisions increasingly depend. This report presents an emission inventory of NH{sub 3} for the state of Wyoming. The inventory is temporally and spatially resolved at the monthly and county level, and is comprised of emissions from individual sources in ten categories: livestock, fertilizer, domestic animals, wild animals, wildfires, soil, industry, mobile sources, humans, and publicly owned treatment works. The Wyoming NH{sub 3} inventory was developed using the Carnegie Mellon University (CMU) Ammonia Model as framework. Current Wyoming-specific activity data and emissions factors obtained from state agencies and published literature were assessed and used as inputs to the CMU Ammonia Model. Biogenic emissions from soils comprise about three-quarters of the Wyoming NH{sub 3} inventory, though emission factors from soils are highly uncertain. Published emission factors are scarce and based on limited measurements. In Wyoming, agricultural land, rangeland, and forests comprise 96% of the land area and essentially all of the estimated emissions from soils. Future research on emission rates of NH{sub 3} for these land categories may lead to a substantial change in the magnitude of soil emissions, a different inventory composition, and reduced uncertainty in the inventory. While many NH{sub 3} inventories include annual emissions, air quality modeling studies require finer temporal

  17. The Future of Futurism: Creating a New Synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Barbara Marx

    1983-01-01

    By combining the best of three different approaches to futurism--crisis futurism, evolutionary futurism, and spiritual futurism--we can realize vast human potentials and, perhaps, even attain the next stage of human evolution. (Author/RM)

  18. Transportation Energy Futures: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brogan, J. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Aeppli, A. E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Brown, D. F. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Fischer, M. J. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Grenzeback, L. R. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); McKenzie, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vimmerstedt, L. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Vyas, A. D. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States); Witzke, E. [Cambridge Systematics Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation modes—truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline—each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. A variety of factors influence the modes chosen by shippers, carriers, and others involved in freight supply chains. Analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares, and federal policy actions could influence future freight mode choices. This report considers how these topics have been addressed in existing literature and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt mode choices that reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

  19. Energy-efficient houses. Scenarios, efforts and means of action with an emphasis on energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. Main Report of the KLIMATEK project 'The energy systems of the future in existing and new buildings - a higher level analysis emphasising status and scenarios'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjaerde, Anne Cathrine; Livik, Klaus; Stene, Joern; Grinden, Bjoern; Tokle, Trude; Thyholt, Marit; Groenli, Morten

    1999-04-01

    The project referred to in the heading concentrated on energy use and carbon dioxide emissions relating to heating of houses in Norway. There are many ways of reducing energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, but the measures taken are often unprofitable because of high investment costs and relatively moderate energy prices. The development of society, environmental policy and technology strongly affects the development and management of the buildings, and this project could only elucidate a limited number of approaches of current interest. About 60% of the energy needed for heating houses comes from electricity, and the use of electricity for general purposes is increasing. Norway will probably become a major net importer of electric power within a few years unless strong measures are taken. Most of the carbon dioxide emission from buildings are due to oil fuel firing

  20. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  1. Swedish CO2-emissions 1900-2010: an exploratory note

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristroem, Bengt; Lundgren, Tommy

    2005-01-01

    This paper projects Swedish CO 2 -emissions during the period 2000-2010 based on data covering 1900-1999. Swedish climate policy is currently based on the assumption that carbon emissions will increase, ceteris paribus, by 5-15% relative to the 1990 level. This forecast has motivated a number of policy measures, including carbon taxes, subsidies and an 'information package'. We find, however, that CO 2 -emissions may well be lower in the future. This outcome is broadly consistent with the literature on the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which portrays the relationship between emissions and GDP. The key contribution of this paper is that our analysis is based on a long time series. Current literature is invariably based on 'short' panel data sets, while we study a single country through several phases of development. Our analysis also sheds some light on the key importance played by nuclear power for carbon emission projections

  2. Energy conservation and emissions reduction strategies in foundry industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yuanyuan

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Current energy conservation and emissions reduction strategies in iron and steel industry were reviewed. Since foundry industry is one of the major source of energy consumption and pollution emission (especially CO2, issues concerning energy-saving and emission-reduction have been raised by governments and the industry. Specialists from around the world carried out multidimensional analyses and evaluation on the potentials in energy conservation and emissions reduction in iron and steel industry, and proposed various kinds of analyzing models. The primary measures mainly focus on the targeted policies formulation and also on clean and high-efficient technologies development. The differences and similarities in energy conservation and emission reduction in foundry industry between China and other countries were discussed, while, the future development trend was also pointed out.

  3. U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-11-01

    Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.

  4. Enforcement Issues in the Governance of Ships’ Carbon Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Bloor

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The shipping industry, although relatively carbon-efficient, is projected to produce rising carbon emissions in the future as a consequence of increasing world trade. A number of candidate regulations designed to mitigate these emissions have been canvassed by the UN’s International Maritime Organisation and by the European Commission. Many of these schemes are focussed on the use of market measures—emission trading schemes or fuel levies. This paper draws on observational and interview data gathered to examine enforcement issues associated with the control of ships’ sulphur emissions in order to consider the possible enforcement problems that might be associated with projected market measures to control ships’ carbon emissions. Enforcement problems are shown to be associated with the globalised character of the industry and its polycentric governance structure.

  5. [Mechanisms of nitrous oxide emission during livestock manure aerobic composting].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei-Xiang; Li, Li-Jie; Lü, Hao-Hao; Wang, Cheng; Deng, Hui

    2012-06-01

    Aerobic composting is an effective way to treat and recycle livestock manure. However, the aerobic composting of livestock manure is a potential source of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O), which closely relates to the global greenhouse effect and ozone depletion. With the expansion of livestock industry and the dramatic increasing yield of manure compost, the N2O emission during the aerobic composting has become a severe problem. The researches on the mechanisms of N2O emission during livestock manure composting have attracted increasing concerns. In this paper, the recent researches on the N2O generation approaches, emission dynamics, potential affecting factors, and microbiological mechanisms of N2O emission during livestock manure aerobic composting were reviewed, and the measures to control the N2O emission during composting process were summarized. Some perspectives for the future researches in this field were suggested.

  6. Energy development and CO2 emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiaolin Xi

    1993-03-01

    The objective of this research is to provide a better understanding of future Chinese energy development and CO 2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. This study examines the current Chinese energy system, estimates CO 2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and projects future energy use and resulting CO 2 emissions up to the year of 2050. Based on the results of the study, development strategies are proposed and policy implications are explored. This study first develops a Base scenario projection of the Chinese energy development based upon a sectoral analysis. The Base scenario represents a likely situation of future development, but many alternatives are possible. To explore this range of alternatives, a systematic uncertainty analysis is performed. The Base scenario also represents an extrapolation of current policies and social and economic trends. As such, it is not necessarily the economically optimal future course for Chinese energy development. To explore this issue, an optimization analysis is performed. For further understanding of developing Chinese energy system and reducing CO 2 emissions, a Chinese energy system model with 84 supply and demand technologies has been constructed in MARKAL, a computer LP optimization program for energy systems. Using this model, various technological options and economic aspects of energy development and CO 2 emissions reduction in China during the 1985-2020 period are examined

  7. Continuous-emission monitoring: Proposed acid-rain rule

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-12-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed four rules containing the core acid rain requirements: the Permits Rule (40 CFR Part 72), the Allowances Rule (40 CFR Part 73), the Continuous Emission Monitoring Rule (40 CFR Part 75), and the Excess Emissions Rule (40 CRF Part 77). EPA will also propose additional rules at a future date. These rules will include requirements for facilities that elect to opt into the Acid Rain Program (40 CFR Part 74) and for the nitrogen oxide (NOx) control program (40 CFR Part 76). This fact sheet summarizes the key components of the proposed Continuous Emission Monitoring Rule (40 CFR Part 75)

  8. The future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corak, Z.

    2004-01-01

    Energy production and use will contribute to global warming through greenhouse gas emissions in the next 50 years. Although nuclear power is faced with a lot of problems to be accepted by the public, it is still a significant option for the world to meet future needs without emitting carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other atmospheric pollutants. In 2002, nuclear power provided approximately 17% of world energy consumption. There is belief that worldwide electricity consumption will increase in the next few years, especially in the developing countries followed by economic growth and social progress. Official forecasts shows that there will be a mere increase of 5% in nuclear electricity worldwide by 2020. There are also predictions that electricity use may increase at 75%. These predictions require a necessity for construction of new nuclear power plants. There are only a few realistic options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation: Increase efficiency in electricity generation and use; Expand use of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass and geothermal; Capture carbon dioxide emissions at fossil-fuelled electric generating plants and permanently sequester the carbon; Increase use of nuclear power. In spite of the advantages that nuclear power has, it is faced with stagnation and decline today. Nuclear power is faced with four critical problems that must be successfully defeat for the large expansion of nuclear power to succeed. Those problems are cost, safety, waste and proliferation. Disapproval of nuclear power is strengthened by accidents that occurred at Three Mile Island in 1979, at Chernobyl in 1986 and by accidents at fuel cycle facilities in Japan, Russia and in the United States of America. There is also great concern about the safety and security of transportation of nuclear materials and the security of nuclear facilities from terrorist attack. The paper will provide summarized review regarding cost, safety, waste and

  9. Historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang; Klimont, Zbigniew; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Pitkanen, Tyler; Seibert, Jonathan J.; Vu, Linh; Andres, Robert J.; Bolt, Ryan M.; Bond, Tami C.; Dawidowski, Laura; Kholod, Nazar; Kurokawa, June-ichi; Li, Meng; Liu, Liang; Lu, Zifeng; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; O'Rourke, Patrick R.; Zhang, Qiang

    2018-01-01

    We present a new data set of annual historical (1750-2014) anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs), carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon - BC, and organic carbon - OC), and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS). We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

  10. Historical (1750–2014 anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Hoesly

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new data set of annual historical (1750–2014 anthropogenic chemically reactive gases (CO, CH4, NH3, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs, carbonaceous aerosols (black carbon – BC, and organic carbon – OC, and CO2 developed with the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS. We improve upon existing inventories with a more consistent and reproducible methodology applied to all emission species, updated emission factors, and recent estimates through 2014. The data system relies on existing energy consumption data sets and regional and country-specific inventories to produce trends over recent decades. All emission species are consistently estimated using the same activity data over all time periods. Emissions are provided on an annual basis at the level of country and sector and gridded with monthly seasonality. These estimates are comparable to, but generally slightly higher than, existing global inventories. Emissions over the most recent years are more uncertain, particularly in low- and middle-income regions where country-specific emission inventories are less available. Future work will involve refining and updating these emission estimates, estimating emissions' uncertainty, and publication of the system as open-source software.

  11. Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winiwarter, Wilfried; Höglund-Isaksson, Lena; Klimont, Zbigniew; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

    2018-01-01

    We describe a consistent framework developed to quantify current and future anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide and the available technical abatement options by source sector for 172 regions globally. About 65% of the current emissions derive from agricultural soils, 8% from waste, and 4% from the chemical industry. Low-cost abatement options are available in industry, wastewater, and agriculture, where they are limited to large industrial farms. We estimate that by 2030, emissions can be reduced by about 6% ±2% applying abatement options at a cost lower than 10 €/t CO2-eq. The largest abatement potential at higher marginal costs is available from agricultural soils, employing precision fertilizer application technology as well as chemical treatment of fertilizers to suppress conversion processes in soil (nitrification inhibitors). At marginal costs of up to 100 €/t CO2-eq, about 18% ±6% of baseline emissions can be removed and when considering all available options, the global abatement potential increases to about 26% ±9%. Due to expected future increase in activities driving nitrous oxide emissions, the limited technical abatement potential available means that even at full implementation of reduction measures by 2030, global emissions can be at most stabilized at the pre-2010 level. In order to achieve deeper reductions in emissions, considerable technological development will be required as well as non-technical options like adjusting human diets towards moderate animal protein consumption.

  12. Calculation of odour emissions from aircraft engines at Copenhagen Airport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winther, Morten; Kousgaard, Uffe; Oxbøl, Arne

    2006-07-31

    In a new approach the odour emissions from aircraft engines at Copenhagen Airport are calculated using actual fuel flow and emission measurements (one main engine and one APU: Auxiliary Power Unit), odour panel results, engine specific data and aircraft operational data for seven busy days. The calculation principle assumes a linear relation between odour and HC emissions. Using a digitalisation of the aircraft movements in the airport area, the results are depicted on grid maps, clearly reflecting aircraft operational statistics as single flights or total activity during a whole day. The results clearly reflect the short-term temporal fluctuations of the emissions of odour (and exhaust gases). Aircraft operating at low engine thrust (taxiing, queuing and landing) have a total odour emission share of almost 98%, whereas the shares for the take off/climb out phases (2%) and APU usage (0.5%) are only marginal. In most hours of the day, the largest odour emissions occur, when the total amount of fuel burned during idle is high. However, significantly higher HC emissions for one specific engine cause considerable amounts of odour emissions during limited time periods. The experimentally derived odour emission factor of 57 OU/mg HC is within the range of 23 and 110 OU/mg HC used in other airport odour studies. The distribution of odour emission results between aircraft operational phases also correspond very well with the results for these other studies. The present study uses measurement data for a representative engine. However, the uncertainties become large when the experimental data is used to estimate the odour emissions for all aircraft engines. More experimental data is needed to increase inventory accuracy, and in terms of completeness it is recommended to make odour emission estimates also for engine start and the fuelling of aircraft at Copenhagen Airport in the future.

  13. The European Dioxin Emission Inventory. Stage II. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quass, U.; Fermann, M.; Broeker, G.

    2001-07-01

    For Stage II of the European Dioxin Project the following objectives were set: - Amendment of existing emission data collected for most relevant emission sources in order to reduce uncertainties of emission estimates. Collecting first emission data from countries not yet performing dioxin emission measurement programs. Extending the inventory of dioxin emissions to ambient air produced in Stage I by a complementary study on emissions to land and water. Extending the regional scope of data collection to countries in Central Europe. The report of Stage II of the European Dioxin Project is presented in 3 Volumes. Volume 1 contains an overview on the background and approach of different activities carried out and on the results obtained. These results are put into a broader view regarding the dioxin reduction measures in Europe leading to conclusions and recommendation for future work. Volume 2 of the report contains a detailed presentation of the sub-projects carried out. The chapters of Volume 2 are structured in a similar manner and start with a short summary in order to allow for a fast cross-reading. In the case of the desk-top studies an overview of the main results or statements is given. Regarding emission measurements details on the experimental set-up and the facilities being investigated are presented. Volume 3 contains a re-evaluation of the dioxin emission inventory presented for the most relevant sources types in the Stage I report. New data gathered from the projects of Stage II as well as from independent activities in the European countries are considered for a revision of the 1995 emission estimates. Additionally, based on current trends and activities the PCDD/F emissions for the years 2000 and 2005 are estimated. Finally, an attempt is made to evaluate the PCDD/F emission reduction rates which might be possible to achieve by the year 2005 compared to 1985. (orig.)

  14. Secondary organic aerosol importance in the future atmosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsigaridis, K.; Kanakidou, M.

    2007-01-01

    In order to investigate the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) response to changes in biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions in the future atmosphere and how important will SOA be relative to the major anthropogenic aerosol component (sulfate), the global three-dimensional chemistry/transport model TM3 has been used. Emission estimates of biogenic VOC (BVOC) and anthropogenic gases and particles from the literature for the year 2100 have been adopted. According to our present-day model simulations, isoprene oxidation produces 4.6 Tg SOA yr -1 , that is less than half of the 12.2 Tg SOA yr -1 formed by the oxidation of other BVOC. In the future, nitrate radicals and ozone become more important than nowadays, but remain minor oxidants for both isoprene and aromatics. SOA produced by isoprene is estimated to almost triple, whereas the production from other BVOC more than triples. The calculated future SOA burden change, from 0.8 Tg at present to 2.0 Tg in the future, is driven by changes in emissions, oxidant levels and pre-existing particles. The non-linearity in SOA formation and the involved chemical and physical feedbacks prohibit the quantitative attribution of the computed changes to the above-mentioned individual factors. In 2100, SOA burden is calculated to exceed that of sulfate, indicating that SOA might become more important than nowadays. These results critically depend on the biogenic emissions and thus are subject to the high uncertainty associated with these emissions estimated due to the insufficient knowledge on plant response to carbon dioxide changes. Nevertheless, they clearly indicate that the change in oxidants and primary aerosol caused by human activities can contribute as much as the change in BVOC emissions to the increase of the biogenic SOA production in the future atmosphere. (authors)

  15. India’s GHG Emission Reduction and Sustainable Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.; Dhar, Subash

    2016-01-01

    that includes implementation of current and announced policies and their continuation dynamically into the future; second, a conventional low carbon scenario (CLCS) which assumes imposition, over the BAU scenario, of CO2 emission price trajectory that is equivalent to achieving the global 2 C target; and third...... same cumulative emissions from India, over the period 2010–2050, as the CLCS scenario using carbon price as well as a mix of sustainability-oriented policies and measures. The scenario analysis provides important information and insights for crafting future policies and actions that constitute...

  16. Demystifying Managed Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurst,, Brian; Hua Ooi, Yao; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2013-01-01

    We show that the returns of Managed Futures funds and CTAs can be explained by time series momentum strategies and we discuss the economic intuition behind these strategies. Time series momentum strategies produce large correlations and high R-squares with Managed Futures indices and individual...... manager returns, including the largest and most successful managers. While the largest Managed Futures managers have realized significant alphas to traditional long-only benchmarks, controlling for time series momentum strategies drives the alphas of the most managers to zero. We consider a number...

  17. Future-Oriented LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving; Borup, Mads; Andersen, Per Dannemand

    2017-01-01

    challenges are described and some learnings are derived. Many of the future-oriented LCAs published so far perform relatively short-term prediction of simple comparisons. But for more long-term time horizons foresight methods can be of help. Scenarios established by qualified experts about future......LCA is often applied for decision-making that concerns actions reaching near or far into the future. However, traditional life cycle assessment methodology must be adjusted for the prospective and change-oriented purposes, but no standardised way of doing this has emerged yet. In this chapter some...

  18. Electricity futures prices: time varying sensitivity to fundamentals

    OpenAIRE

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Huisman, Ronald; Kilic, Mehtap; Pennings, Enrico; Westgaard, Sjur

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides insight into the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of contract prices for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the relation between the prices of electricity futures and those of underlying fundamentals such as natural gas, coal and emission rights varies over time. We test this view by applying a model that linearly relates elec...

  19. Biodegradable lubricants - ''the solution for future?''

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahan, A.

    1997-01-01

    The environmental impact of lubricants use concern the direct effects from spills but also the indirect effects such as their lifetime and the emissions from thermal engines. The biodegradable performances and the toxicity are the environmental criteria that must be taken into account in the development and application of lubricants together with their technical performances. This paper recalls first the definition of biodegradable properties of hydrocarbons and the standardized tests, in particular the CEC and AFNOR tests. Then, the biodegradable performances of basic oils (mineral, vegetal, synthetic esters, synthetic hydrocarbons etc..), finite lubricants (hydraulic fluids..) and engine oils is analyzed according to these tests. Finally, the definition of future standards would take into account all the environmental characteristics of the lubricant: biodegradable performances, energy balance (CO 2 , NOx and Hx emissions and fuel savings), eco-toxicity and technical performances (wearing and cleanliness). (J.S.)

  20. Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelps, Jacob; Carrasco, Luis Roman; Webb, Edward L; Koh, Lian Pin; Pascual, Unai

    2013-05-07

    The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+). Incipient REDD+ forest carbon policies in a number of countries propose agricultural intensification measures to replace extensive "slash-and-burn" farming systems. These may result in conservation in some contexts, but will also increase future agricultural land rents as productivity increases, creating new incentives for agricultural expansion and deforestation. While robust governance can help to ensure land sparing, we propose that conservation incentives will also have to increase over time, tracking future agricultural land rents, which might lead to runaway conservation costs. We present a conceptual framework that depicts these relationships, supported by an illustrative model of the intensification of key crops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a leading REDD+ country. A von Thünen land rent model is combined with geographic information systems mapping to demonstrate how agricultural intensification could influence future conservation costs. Once postintensification agricultural land rents are considered, the cost of reducing forest sector emissions could significantly exceed current and projected carbon credit prices. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering escalating conservation costs from agricultural intensification when designing conservation initiatives.

  1. Demographic controls of future global fire risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

    2016-08-01

    Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

  2. Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) Emissions in China: An Inventory for 2005-2013 and Projections to 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xuekun; Velders, Guus J M; Ravishankara, A R; Molina, Mario J; Hu, Jianxin; Prinn, Ronald G

    2016-02-16

    Many hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) that are widely used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (now regulated under the Montreal Protocol) are very potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). China's past and future HFC emissions are of great interest because China has emerged as a major producer and consumer of HFCs. Here, we present for the first time a comprehensive inventory estimate of China's HFC emissions during 2005-2013. Results show a rapid increase in HFC production, consumption, and emissions in China during the period and that the emissions of HFC with a relatively high global warming potential (GWP) grew faster than those with a relatively low GWP. The proportions of China's historical HFC CO2-equivalent emissions to China's CO2 emissions or global HFC CO2-equivalent emissions increased rapidly during 2005-2013. Using the "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario, in which HFCs are used to replace a significant fraction of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) in China (to date, there are no regulations on HFC uses in China), emissions of HFCs are projected to be significant components of China's and global future GHG emissions. However, potentials do exist for minimizing China's HFC emissions (for example, if regulations on HFC uses are established in China). Our findings on China's historical and projected HFC emission trajectories could also apply to other developing countries, with important implications for mitigating global GHG emissions.

  3. N2O Emissions From a Fertilized Grassland: Modeling and Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, C.

    2005-12-01

    N2O emissions from a fertilized grassland near Cork, Ireland were continuously measured during 2003 using the eddy covariance method. For most of the year N2O emissions were close to zero and the bulk of the emission occurred in only eight major events, each event lasting from two to twenty days. This data set was used to test the N2O emissions predicted by the DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition) model. Good agreement between measured and modeled N2O emissions was found, thus providing a basis for using the model to simulate (a) background N2O emissions and (b) the effect of future climate perturbations on N2O emissions. Our future climate projections are based on the standard Hadley Center model output of the IS92a scenario for Ireland in which the average temperature increases for the whole year and precipitation increases in winter but decreases in summer. The measured annual N2O emission was 11.6 kg N/ha. A total of 335 kg/ha of chemical and organic N was applied, giving an emission factor of 3.4%, uncorrected for background emission. Based on the DNDC model prediction with zero N applications, the background emission accounts for 15% of the total annual observed N2O emission. The DNDC model predicts that the future climate shifts based on the IS92a scenario will increase total annual N2O emission by 45% (7.0 kg N2O-N/ha). By comparison, a decrease of 10% in total N applications (in order to comply with EU water quality legislation) leads to a predicted reduction in current N2O emissions of only 7% (0.9 kg N2O-N/ha). Thus the projected increase in N2O emission caused by climate perturbations is far larger than the decrease expected from reduced fertilization to comply with water quality legislation.

  4. Tomography by positrons emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosconi, Sergio L.

    1999-01-01

    The tomography by positrons emission is a technology that allows to measure the concentration of positrons emission in a tri dimensional body through external measurements. Among the isotope emissions have carbon isotopes are ( 11 C), of the oxygen ( 15 O), of the nitrogen ( 13 N) that are three the element that constitute the base of the organic chemistry. Theses have on of the PET's most important advantages, since many biological interesting organic molecules can be tracer with these isotopes for the metabolism studies 'in vivo' through PET, without using organic tracers that modify the metabolism. The mentioned isotopes, also possess the characteristic of having short lifetime, that constitute on of PET's advantages from the dosimetric point of view. Among 11 C, 15 O, and 13 N, other isotopes that can be obtained of a generator as the 68 Ga and 82 Rb

  5. Carbon emissions control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandler, W.U.

    1990-01-01

    This study was undertaken to address a fundamental issue: the cost of slowing climate change. Experts in eight nations were asked to evaluate, using the best economic models available, the prospects for reducing fossil fuel-based carbon emissions in their respective nations. The nations selected as case studies include: the Soviet Union, Poland, the United States, Japan, Hungary, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada. As important contributors to the greenhouse effect, these industrialized nations must find ways to substantially reduce their emissions. This is especially critical given that developing nations' emissions are expected to rise in the coming decades in the search for economic development. Ten papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  6. Practical acoustic emission testing

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This book is intended for non-destructive testing (NDT) technicians who want to learn practical acoustic emission testing based on level 1 of ISO 9712 (Non-destructive testing – Qualification and certification of personnel) criteria. The essential aspects of ISO/DIS 18436-6 (Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines – Requirements for training and certification of personnel, Part 6: Acoustic Emission) are explained, and readers can deepen their understanding with the help of practice exercises. This work presents the guiding principles of acoustic emission measurement, signal processing, algorithms for source location, measurement devices, applicability of testing methods, and measurement cases to support not only researchers in this field but also and especially NDT technicians.

  7. Estimating criteria pollutant emissions using the California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE model v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. B. Zapata

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU scenario and an 80 % GHG reduction (GHG-Step scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i on-road, (ii rail and off-road, (iii marine and aviation, (iv residential and commercial, (v electricity generation, and (vi biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4 km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4 % in the GHG

  8. Peatland-GHG emissions in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Droesler, Matthias

    2013-04-01

    Managed peatlands are hot spots for CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions. GHG which have been not fully integrated in past European climate projects. Peatlands contribute to European GHG emissions 10 times more per unit area than other terrestrial ecosystems. Peatland management and exploration by drainage, agricultural use and peat extraction turned pristine peatland GHG sinks into sources. Emissions can reach more than 40 t CO2equiv. ha-1 a-1 in intensively managed peatlands. On the other hand, the restoration of degraded peatlands does normally reduce these emissions significantly towards climate neutral levels, once the restoration work is done wisely. But in some cases the net climate effect do not decrease significantly depending on hydrological regimes, fertilization status of the peatlands, climate and vegetation type. In many European countries with significant peatland cover nationally funded projects were set up to investigate peatland GHG fluxes and their drivers. These scattered data and knowledge are currently being brought together under the coverage of the GHG-Europe project (Grant agreement no.: 244122) within a new synthesis to develop the relevant EF, identify the drivers and develop upscaling options for GHG-emissions. The talk will: (1) show a first cut of new Emission Factors for peatlands in Europe and compare these with IPCC-default values. (2) discuss the developed sensible response functions for GHG-fluxes against natural and anthropogenic drivers such as land use intensity, land management with drainage and climate variability. (3) show case studies from Germany show the applicability of response functions for upscaling of GHG-balances. (4) An outlook is given to the future European peatland GHG-Balance.

  9. Nitrogen Emission and Deposition: The European Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Willem Erisman

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Europe has been successful in reducing the emissions of several nitrogenous pollutants over recent decades. This is reflected in concentrations and deposition rates that have decreased for several components. Emissions of nitrogen containing gases are estimated to have decreased in Europe by 10%, 21%, and 14% for NO, NOx, and NH3, respectively, between 1990 and 1998. The main reductions are the result of a decrease in industrial and agricultural activities in the east of Europe as a result of the economic situation, measures in the transport sector, industry and agricultural sector, with only a small part of the reduction due to specific measures designed to reduce emissions. The reduction is significant, but far from the end goal for large areas in Europe in relation to different environmental problems. The Gothenburg Protocol will lead to reductions of 50 and 12% in 2010 relative to 1990 for NOx and NH3, respectively. The N2O emissions are expected to grow between 1998 and 2010 by 9%. Further reductions are necessary to reach critical limits for ecosystem protection, air quality standards and climate change. Emissions of nitrogen compounds result from an overload of reactive nitrogen, which is produced by combustion processes, by synthesis of ammonia or by import from other areas as concentrated animal feeds. Although some improvements can be made by improving the efficiency of combustion processes and agricultural systems, measures to reduce emissions substantially need to be focused on decreasing the production or import of reactive N. Reactive N ceilings for regions based on critical limits for all N-related effects can help to focus such measures. An integrated approach might have advantages over the pollutant specific approach to combat nitrogen pollution. This could provide the future direction for European policy to reduce the impacts of excess nitrogen.

  10. Nitrogen emission and deposition: the European perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erisman, J W; Grennfelt, P; Sutton, M

    2001-12-11

    Europe has been successful in reducing the emissions of several nitrogenous pollutants over recent decades. This is reflected in concentrations and deposition rates that have decreased for several components. Emissions of nitrogen containing gases are estimated to have decreased in Europe by 10%, 21%, and 14% for NO, NOx, and NH3, respectively, between 1990 and 1998. The main reductions are the result of a decrease in industrial and agricultural activities in the east of Europe as a result of the economic situation, measures in the transport sector, industry and agricultural sector, with only a small part of the reduction due to specific measures designed to reduce emissions. The reduction is significant, but far from the end goal for large areas in Europe in relation to different environmental problems. The Gothenburg Protocol will lead to reductions of 50 and 12% in 2010 relative to 1990 for NOx and NH3, respectively. The N2O emissions are expected to grow between 1998 and 2010 by 9%. Further reductions are necessary to reach critical limits for ecosystem protection, air quality standards and climate change. Emissions of nitrogen compounds result from an overload of reactive nitrogen, which is produced by combustion processes, by synthesis of ammonia or by import from other areas as concentrated animal feeds. Although some improvements can be made by improving the efficiency of combustion processes and agricultural systems, measures to reduce emissions substantially need to be focused on decreasing the production or import of reactive N. Reactive N ceilings for regions based on critical limits for all N-related effects can help to focus such measures. An integrated approach might have advantages over the pollutant specific approach to combat nitrogen pollution. This could provide the future direction for European policy to reduce the impacts of excess nitrogen.

  11. Back to the Future

    CERN Multimedia

    Collins, Graham

    2004-01-01

    "Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future" said Nobel physicist Niels Bohr, many years ago. But two months ago, 150 leading physicists gathered at the University of California to engage in just that daunting task (1 page)

  12. Far land near future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jagt, van der P.D.; Holst, van F.; Thomas, J.; Brink, van den A.; Reyniers, J.; Jongeneelen, O.; Dijk, van T.; Timmermans, W.; Daugaliene, V.; Crecente, R.; Ambar, M.; Flachner, Z.

    2007-01-01

    Land development: expecting the unexpected. Future approaches to land development. Thos book is the result of an EU project. With Dutch contributions: Meerstad, Groningen (PPS) and Klarenbeek, Amsterdam (zorglandgoed)

  13. Antiemetic research: future directions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olver, Ian; Molassiotis, Alexander; Aapro, Matti

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE AND METHODS: As a part of reviewing the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) antiemetic guidelines in Perugia in 2009, an expert group identified directions for future antiemetic research. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: In future trials, the prediction of nausea...... and vomiting may combine algorithms based on observed prognostic factors relating to the patient and the anticancer therapy, the identification of the genes that code for receptors, and pharmacogenetic studies of the metabolism of drugs. Design issues for future trials include standardising the emetic stimulus...... of