Acute stress induces selective alterations in cost/benefit decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Shafiei, Naghmeh; Gray, Megan; Viau, Victor; Floresco, Stan B

2012-09-01

Acute stress can exert beneficial or detrimental effects on different forms of cognition. In the present study, we assessed the effects of acute restraint stress on different forms of cost/benefit decision-making, and some of the hormonal and neurochemical mechanisms that may underlie these effects. Effort-based decision-making was assessed where rats chose between a low effort/reward (1 press=2 pellets) or high effort/reward option (4 pellets), with the effort requirement increasing over 4 blocks of trials (2, 5, 10, and 20 lever presses). Restraint stress for 1 h decreased preference for the more costly reward and induced longer choice latencies. Control experiments revealed that the effects on decision-making were not mediated by general reductions in motivation or preference for larger rewards. In contrast, acute stress did not affect delay-discounting, when rats chose between a small/immediate vs larger/delayed reward. The effects of stress on decision-making were not mimicked by treatment with physiological doses of corticosterone (1-3 mg/kg). Blockade of dopamine receptors with flupenthixol (0.25 mg/kg) before restraint did not attenuate stress-induced effects on effort-related choice, but abolished effects on choice latencies. These data suggest that acute stress interferes somewhat selectively with cost/benefit evaluations concerning effort costs. These effects do not appear to be mediated solely by enhanced glucocorticoid activity, whereas dopaminergic activation may contribute to increased deliberation times induced by stress. These findings may provide insight into impairments in decision-making and anergia associated with stress-related disorders, such as depression.

Acute stress does not affect risky monetary decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Sokol-Hessner

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The ubiquitous and intense nature of stress responses necessitate that we understand how they affect decision-making. Despite a number of studies examining risky decision-making under stress, it is as yet unclear whether and in what way stress alters the underlying processes that shape our choices. This is in part because previous studies have not separated and quantified dissociable valuation and decision-making processes that can affect choices of risky options, including risk attitudes, loss aversion, and choice consistency, among others. Here, in a large, fully-crossed two-day within-subjects design, we examined how acute stress alters risky decision-making. On each day, 120 participants completed either the cold pressor test or a control manipulation with equal probability, followed by a risky decision-making task. Stress responses were assessed with salivary cortisol. We fit an econometric model to choices that dissociated risk attitudes, loss aversion, and choice consistency using hierarchical Bayesian techniques to both pool data and allow heterogeneity in decision-making. Acute stress was found to have no effect on risk attitudes, loss aversion, or choice consistency, though participants did become more loss averse and more consistent on the second day relative to the first. In the context of an inconsistent previous literature on risk and acute stress, our findings provide strong and specific evidence that acute stress does not affect risk attitudes, loss aversion, or consistency in risky monetary decision-making.

Nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirey, Maria R; Ebright, Patricia R; McDaniel, Anna M

2013-01-01

  The present study provides insight into nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.   Little is known about nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. Because nurse manager decisions have the potential to impact patient care quality and safety, understanding their decision-making processes is useful for designing supportive interventions.   This qualitative descriptive study interviewed 21 nurse managers from three hospitals to answer the research question: What decision-making processes do nurse managers utilize to address stressful situations in their nurse manager role? Face-to-face interviews incorporating components of the Critical Decision Method illuminated expert-novice practice differences. Content analysis identified one major theme and three sub-themes.   The present study produced a cognitive model that guides nurse manager decision-making related to stressful situations. Experience in the role, organizational context and situation factors influenced nurse manager cognitive decision-making processes.   Study findings suggest that chronic exposure to stress and work complexity negatively affects nurse manager health and their decision-making processes potentially threatening individual, patient and organizational outcomes.   Cognitive decision-making varies based on nurse manager experience and these differences have coaching and mentoring implications. This present study contributes a current understanding of nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Competence and Quality in Real-Life Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Geisler, Martin; Allwood, Carl Martin

2015-01-01

What distinguishes a competent decision maker and how should the issue of decision quality be approached in a real-life context? These questions were explored in three studies. In Study 1, using a web-based questionnaire and targeting a community sample, we investigated the relationships between objective and subjective indicators of real-life decision-making success. In Study 2 and 3, targeting two different samples of professionals, we explored if the prevalent cognitively oriented definiti...

Anticipatory stress influences decision making under explicit risk conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Starcke, Katrin; Wolf, Oliver T; Markowitsch, Hans J; Brand, Matthias

2008-12-01

Recent research has suggested that stress may affect memory, executive functioning, and decision making on the basis of emotional feedback processing. The current study examined whether anticipatory stress affects decision making measured with the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps both executive functioning and feedback learning. The authors induced stress in 20 participants by having them anticipate giving a public speech and also examined 20 comparison subjects. The authors assessed the level of stress with questionnaires and endocrine markers (salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase), both revealing that speech anticipation led to increased stress. Results of the GDT showed that participants under stress scored significantly lower than the comparison group and that GDT performance was negatively correlated with the increase of cortisol. Our results indicate that stress can lead to disadvantageous decision making even when explicit and stable information about outcome contingencies is provided.

Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; de Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

2014-01-01

Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

Real Time Traffic Models, Decision Support for Traffic Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

2014-01-01

Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kertzscher Schwencke, Gustavo Adolfo Vladimir; Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

2014-01-01

Purpose:This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction ......, and the AEDA’s capacity to distinguish between true and false error scenarios. The study further shows that the AEDA can offer guidance in decision making in the event of potential errors detected with real-time in vivo point dosimetry....... of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods:In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most...

GENDER ROLE DISTRIBUTION IN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE FAMILY DECISION MAKING

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Irina R. KANCHEVA

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Purchase and consumption behavioral patterns of various family formations in different social and cultural contexts have been subject to intensive investigation over the recent years. Residential real estate as a product category represents one of the most complex household purchases incorporating a wide diversity of attributes to be considered in order to match family members’ needs within available resources. The purpose of this paper is to add some insights into spousal perceptions of gender role specialization throughout a residential real estate purchase family decision-making process. The distribution of influence between husbands and wives across three decision-making stages, three sub-decisions and twelve housing attribute choices and the relative importance of twelve residential real estate characteristics are examined using a convenience sample of both spouses in 127 Bulgarian heterosexual married and cohabiting couples.

Real-time data collection technologies: Enhanced decision-making and cost savings January, 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rust, T.L.; Vu, H.Q.

2006-01-01

Hand-held computers, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and wireless communication devices are rapidly replacing traditional methods for field monitoring and data collection. Although pencil and paper remain important means of data transcription, field technicians can now use Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) to record their field notes and monitoring data. As data are uploaded wirelessly from the field, decision-makers can view realtime reports and maps that identify sample locations and monitoring results. The combination of PDAs, wireless communications, and web-based GIS provides field personnel and decision-makers many benefits throughout the life cycle of a project, including improved data consistency, real-time transfer of data from field locations to centralized databases, input validation, elimination of transcription errors, and cost savings. Concerns have been expressed however, about investing in hardware, software, and training for a new technology. This paper, based on several years of experience using wireless technologies for dozens of projects, is focused specifically on two case studies. The first case study is a large lead removal site in the Midwest at which real-time data collection technologies were used throughout the project to collect thousands of data points. The second is the Hurricane Katrina/Rita emergency response requiring rapid data collection under extraordinary circumstances. At both sites, the use of real-time data collection technologies significantly improved the data management process which reduced overall costs and increased efficiency. These results could not have been achieved using traditional data collection procedures. The oral presentation will focus on the advantages and disadvantages of the real-time data collection technologies, lessons learned, and planning considerations. A live demonstration, following a typical data collection scenario in which data are collected and plotted on a GIS map in near real-time

Decision-making in real estate development : application of game theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Clumac, B.; Blokhuis, E.G.J.; Han, Q.

2011-01-01

Decision making in real estate development projects has generally undergone a number of important changes over the last decades. This transition represented a shift from governmentally dominated top-down spatial planning to bottom-up, public-private engagement schemes in real estate development (Tam

Real estate added value and decision-making in hospital infrastructure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Zwart, J.

2011-01-01

This paper explores the concept of adding value to corporate performance by real estate, and how this concept could be applied in decision-making processes for new hospital infrastructure. A literature review forms the starting point for interviews carried out with hospitals‘ CEOs on how real estate

Real-life decision making in college students. I: Consistency across specific decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Galotti, Kathleen M; Wiener, Hillary J D; Tandler, Jane M

2014-01-01

First-year undergraduates participated in a short-term longitudinal study of real-life decision making over their first 14 months of college. They were surveyed about 7 different decisions: choosing courses for an upcoming term (3 different terms), choosing an academic major (twice), planning for the upcoming summer, and planning for sophomore-year housing. Participants showed moderate levels of consistency in the options they considered and in the criteria they used to decide between options, with about half of the options or criteria being used at 2 different points on the decision repeatedly studied. Participants varied somewhat in structural consistency, the tendency to consider the same number of options or criteria across decisions. They also varied in the way they integrated information across decision-making tasks. We suggest that people attempt to keep the information demands of the task within workable limits, sometimes sacrificing consistency as a result.

Big Data Analytics Embedded Smart City Architecture for Performance Enhancement through Real-Time Data Processing and Decision-Making

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Bhagya Nathali Silva

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The concept of the smart city is widely favored, as it enhances the quality of life of urban citizens, involving multiple disciplines, that is, smart community, smart transportation, smart healthcare, smart parking, and many more. Continuous growth of the complex urban networks is significantly challenged by real-time data processing and intelligent decision-making capabilities. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a smart city framework based on Big Data analytics. The proposed framework operates on three levels: (1 data generation and acquisition level collecting heterogeneous data related to city operations, (2 data management and processing level filtering, analyzing, and storing data to make decisions and events autonomously, and (3 application level initiating execution of the events corresponding to the received decisions. In order to validate the proposed architecture, we analyze a few major types of dataset based on the proposed three-level architecture. Further, we tested authentic datasets on Hadoop ecosystem to determine the threshold and the analysis shows that the proposed architecture offers useful insights into the community development authorities to improve the existing smart city architecture.

Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

CERN Document Server

Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

2012-01-01

Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

An Online Experimental Framework for Cooperative Relationships With a Real-Time Decision-Making and Rewarding Environment

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Reiji Suzuki

2018-06-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates interactions between game theoretical strategies and social relationships in real-time decision-making and rewarding environments. We propose an experimental framework based on techniques of web-based multiplayer online games for this purpose. In our framework, multiple human players, represented as particles in a two-dimensional space of social interactions, can modify their positions and game strategies for the prisoner's dilemma in real time, and receive benefit or cost emerging from both game theoretical and social relationships with neighboring players. We report on experiments with human participants in different conditions of the payoff matrix, which reflects game structures, and the speed of each player, which reflects the ability to change her social relationship. We show that cooperative relationships emerge in real human groups regardless of experimental settings, and show their basic behavioral patterns. We further discuss relationships between behavioral characters of participants in the experiments and their psychological characters to see how their personalities can be reflected in their behavior in such a game theoretical framework, and show that a few psychological characters of participants might reflect their behavioral characters at least in part, but there were variations in these relationships between experimental groups.

Near real-time forecasting for cholera decision making in Haiti after Hurricane Matthew.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasetto, Damiano; Finger, Flavio; Camacho, Anton; Grandesso, Francesco; Cohuet, Sandra; Lemaitre, Joseph C; Azman, Andrew S; Luquero, Francisco J; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea

2018-05-01

Computational models of cholera transmission can provide objective insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic and aid decision making on allocation of health care resources. However, models are typically designed, calibrated and interpreted post-hoc. Here, we report the efforts of a team from academia, field research and humanitarian organizations to model in near real-time the Haitian cholera outbreak after Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, to assess risk and to quantitatively estimate the efficacy of a then ongoing vaccination campaign. A rainfall-driven, spatially-explicit meta-community model of cholera transmission was coupled to a data assimilation scheme for computing short-term projections of the epidemic in near real-time. The model was used to forecast cholera incidence for the months after the passage of the hurricane (October-December 2016) and to predict the impact of a planned oral cholera vaccination campaign. Our first projection, from October 29 to December 31, predicted the highest incidence in the departments of Grande Anse and Sud, accounting for about 45% of the total cases in Haiti. The projection included a second peak in cholera incidence in early December largely driven by heavy rainfall forecasts, confirming the urgency for rapid intervention. A second projection (from November 12 to December 31) used updated rainfall forecasts to estimate that 835 cases would be averted by vaccinations in Grande Anse (90% Prediction Interval [PI] 476-1284) and 995 in Sud (90% PI 508-2043). The experience gained by this modeling effort shows that state-of-the-art computational modeling and data-assimilation methods can produce informative near real-time projections of cholera incidence. Collaboration among modelers and field epidemiologists is indispensable to gain fast access to field data and to translate model results into operational recommendations for emergency management during an outbreak. Future efforts should thus draw together multi

Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

2017-12-01

Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

A Distributed Computing Framework for Real-Time Detection of Stress and of Its Propagation in a Team.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Parul; Lee, Eun Kyung; Pompili, Dario

2016-11-01

Stress is one of the key factor that impacts the quality of our daily life: From the productivity and efficiency in the production processes to the ability of (civilian and military) individuals in making rational decisions. Also, stress can propagate from one individual to other working in a close proximity or toward a common goal, e.g., in a military operation or workforce. Real-time assessment of the stress of individuals alone is, however, not sufficient, as understanding its source and direction in which it propagates in a group of people is equally-if not more-important. A continuous near real-time in situ personal stress monitoring system to quantify level of stress of individuals and its direction of propagation in a team is envisioned. However, stress monitoring of an individual via his/her mobile device may not always be possible for extended periods of time due to limited battery capacity of these devices. To overcome this challenge a novel distributed mobile computing framework is proposed to organize the resources in the vicinity and form a mobile device cloud that enables offloading of computation tasks in stress detection algorithm from resource constrained devices (low residual battery, limited CPU cycles) to resource rich devices. Our framework also supports computing parallelization and workflows, defining how the data and tasks divided/assigned among the entities of the framework are designed. The direction of propagation and magnitude of influence of stress in a group of individuals are studied by applying real-time, in situ analysis of Granger Causality. Tangible benefits (in terms of energy expenditure and execution time) of the proposed framework in comparison to a centralized framework are presented via thorough simulations and real experiments.

Acute psychosocial stress and everyday moral decision-making in young healthy men: The impact of cortisol.

Science.gov (United States)

Singer, Nina; Sommer, Monika; Döhnel, Katrin; Zänkert, Sandra; Wüst, Stefan; Kudielka, Brigitte M

2017-07-01

In everyday life, moral decisions must frequently be made under acute stress. Although there is increasing evidence that both stress and cortisol affect moral judgment and behavior as well as decision-making in various domains unrelated to morality, surprisingly few attempts have been made to explore the effects of stress on everyday moral decision-making. Therefore, in the present study, we exposed 50 young healthy men to the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) or its non-stressful placebo version (PTSST). We investigated the impact of acute stress exposure and stress-related cortisol levels on decision-making, decision certainty, and emotions in 28 everyday moral conflict situations with altruistic versus egoistic response alternatives. Results showed that the TSST-exposed group made more altruistic decisions than the non-stress control group, while groups did not differ in decision certainty and emotion ratings. Moreover, in correlational as well as regression analyses, additionally controlling for confounding variables, we observed significant positive associations between cortisol levels and altruistic decision-making. Further analyses revealed that altruistic decisions came along with significantly higher decision certainty and significantly more positive emotion ratings than egoistic decisions. Notably, our data also raise the idea that the personality trait agreeableness plays an important role in everyday moral decision-making. In sum, our findings provide initial evidence that both acute stress exposure and cortisol levels have prosocial effects on everyday moral decision-making in young healthy men. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Slow down or race to halt: towards managing complexity of real-time energy management decisions

OpenAIRE

Petters, Stefan M.; Awan, Muhammad Ali

2010-01-01

Existing work in the context of energy management for real-time systems often ignores the substantial cost of making DVFS and sleep state decisions in terms of time and energy and/or assume very simple models. Within this paper we attempt to explore the parameter space for such decisions and possible constraints faced.

Remote Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Stress (RAFES): Development of a Real Time Decision Support Tool for the Eastern U.S

Science.gov (United States)

Clinton, B.; Vose, J.; Novick, K.; Liu, Y.

2011-12-01

Drier and warmer conditions predicted with climate change models are likely to significantly impact forest ecosystems over the next several decades. The U.S. has experienced significant droughts over the past several years that have increased the susceptibility of forests to insect outbreaks, disease, and wildfire. Weather data collected with traditional approaches provide an indirect measure of drought or temperature stress; however, the significance of short-term or prolonged climate-related stress varies considerably across the landscape as topography, elevations, edaphic condition and antecedent conditions vary. This limits the capacity of land managers to anticipate and initiate management activities that could offset the impacts of climate-related forest stress. Decision support tools are needed that allow fine scale monitoring of stress conditions in forest ecosystems in real time to help land managers evaluate response strategies. To assist land managers in managing the impacts of climate change, we are developing a stress monitoring and decision support system across multiple sites in the eastern U.S. that (1) provides remote data capture of environmental parameters that quantify climate-related forest stress, (2) links remotely captured data with physiologically-based indices of tree water stress, and (3) provides a PC-based analytical tool for land managers to monitor and assess the severity of climate-related stress. Currently the network represents southern coastal plain pine plantation, Atlantic coastal flatwoods mixed pine-hardwood, southern piedmont upland mixed pine-hardwood, southern Appalachian dry ridge and mesic riparian, southern Arkansas managed mature pine, and northern Minnesota mature aspen. The strategy for selecting additional sites for the network will be a focus on at-risk ecosystems deemed particularly vulnerable to the affects of predicted climate change such as those in ecotonal transition regions, or those at the fringes of their

Interfacing An Intelligent Decision-Maker To A Real-Time Control System

Science.gov (United States)

Evers, D. C.; Smith, D. M.; Staros, C. J.

1984-06-01

This paper discusses some of the practical aspects of implementing expert systems in a real-time environment. There is a conflict between the needs of a process control system and the computational load imposed by intelligent decision-making software. The computation required to manage a real-time control problem is primarily concerned with routine calculations which must be executed in real time. On most current hardware, non-trivial AI software should not be forced to operate under real-time constraints. In order for the system to work efficiently, the two processes must be separated by a well-defined interface. Although the precise nature of the task separation will vary with the application, the definition of the interface will need to follow certain fundamental principles in order to provide functional separation. This interface was successfully implemented in the expert scheduling software currently running the automated chemical processing facility at Lockheed-Georgia. Potential applications of this concept in the areas of airborne avionics and robotics will be discussed.

Stress and strategic decision-making in the beauty contest game.

Science.gov (United States)

Leder, Johannes; Häusser, Jan Alexander; Mojzisch, Andreas

2013-09-01

Often, economic decisions do not only depend on one's own preferences, but also on the choices of others and therefore require strategizing (i.e., thinking about what others might think). In experimental economics, this has been modeled by the beauty contest game. Another typical feature of economic decisions is that they are often carried out under stress. Therefore, in the present study, we aimed to examine the influence of stress on decision-making in the beauty contest game. Participants were randomly assigned to either the Trier Social Stress Test for Groups (TSST-G) or a placebo version of the TSST-G (control condition). Then, participants played four rounds of a standard beauty contest game. As a biomarker of stress, salivary cortisol was measured. As predicted, participants under stress chose higher numbers in the beauty contest game than non-stressed participants, indicating less strategizing. This effect was mediated by the stress-induced increase in cortisol. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Pricing Decision Making for Retailer-Wholesaler in Smart Grid Based on Game Theory

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Yeming Dai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Real-time pricing DSM (demand side management is widely used to dynamically change or shift the electricity consumption in the smart grid. In this paper, a game decision making scheme is proposed in the smart grid with DSM. The interaction between two retailers and their wholesaler is modeled as a two-stage game model. Considering the competition between two retailers, two different game models are developed in terms of the different action order between retailers and their wholesaler. Through analyzing the equilibrium revenues of the retailers for different situations we find that although the wholesaler expects to decentralize certain management powers to the retailers, it has retained the right to change the rules of the game and frequently reneged on the promises. More specifically, the law should ensure that any change of the revenue-sharing formula must go through certain legal procedures. Imposing legal restrictions on the wholesaler’s discretionary policy suggests that the time-inconsistency problem is mitigated. Numerical simulation shows the effectiveness of proposed scheme.

Anticipatory stress restores decision-making deficits in heavy drinkers by increasing sensitivity to losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Gullo, Matthew J; Stieger, Adam A

2011-09-01

Substance abusers are characterized by hypersensitivity to reward. This leads to maladaptive decisions generally, as well as those on laboratory-based decision-making tasks, such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Negative affect has also been shown to disrupt the decision-making of healthy individuals, particularly decisions made under uncertainty. Neuropsychological theories of learning, including the Somatic Marker Hypothesis (SMH), argue this occurs by amplifying affective responses to punishment. In substance abusers, this might serve to rebalance their sensitivity to reward with punishment, and improve decision-making. Before completing the IGT, 45 heavy and 47 light drinkers were randomly assigned to a control condition, or led to believe they had to give a stressful public speech. IGT performance was analyzed with the Expectancy-Valence (EV) learning model. Working memory and IQ were also assessed. Heavy drinkers made more disadvantageous decisions than light drinkers, due to higher attention to gains (versus losses) on the IGT. Anticipatory stress increased participants' attention to losses, significantly improving heavy drinkers' decision-making. Anticipatory stress increased attention to losses, effectively restoring decision-making deficits in heavy drinkers by rebalancing their reward sensitivity with punishment sensitivity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Forms and Functions of Real-Life Moral Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Krebs, Dennis L.; Denton, Kathy; Wark, Gillian

1997-01-01

Observes that the Kohlbergian model of morality does not give a good account of the ways in which people make moral decisions in their everyday lives. Argues that a functional model of moral judgment and moral behavior derived from evolutionary theory may supply a better account of real-life morality. (DSK)

Making better decisions in uncertain times (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

St John, C.

2013-12-01

Scientific information about climate change and other human impacts on the environment are increasingly available and sought after (often in the form of probabilistic forecasts or technical information related to engineering solutions). However, it is increasingly apparent that there are barriers to the use of this information by decision makers - either from its lack of application altogether, its usability for people without scientific backgrounds, or its ability to inform sound decisions and widespread behavior change. While the argument has been made that an information deficit is to blame, we argue that there is also a motivation deficit contributing to a lack of understanding of information about climate change impacts and solutions. Utilizing insight from over thirty years of research in social and cognitive psychology, in addition to other social sciences, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) seeks to understand how people make environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and how these decisions can be improved. This presentation will focus specifically on recent research that has come forth since the 2009 publication of CRED's popular guide 'The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public.' Utilizing case studies from real world examples, this talk will explore how decision making can be improved through a better understanding of how people perceive and process uncertainty and risk. It will explore techniques such as choice architecture and 'nudging' behavior change, how social goals and group participation affect decision making, and how framing of environmental information influences mitigative behavior.

Can decision-making skills affect responses to psychological stress in healthy women?

Science.gov (United States)

Santos-Ruiz, Ana; Garcia-Rios, M Carmen; Fernandez-Sanchez, José Carlos; Perez-Garcia, Miguel; Muñoz-García, Miguel Angel; Peralta-Ramirez, Maria Isabel

2012-12-01

In recent studies showing how stress can affect an individual's decision-making process, the cognitive component of decision-making could also be considered a coping resource available to individuals when faced with a stressful situation. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) constitutes the standard test for the assessment of decision-making skills under conditions of uncertainty. Responses of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis to psychosocial stress, in turn, have been estimated by means of cortisol measurements. Our main objective in this study was to test if good and bad IGT performers show distinct HPA axis responses, when challenged in a classic psychosocial stress test. Because women have been shown to outperform men on the IGT under the influence of psychosocial stress, we chose a sample of 40 women to take the IGT before they were exposed to a public speaking task in a virtual environment. The activation of the HPA axis, involved in the stress response, was assessed by examining the levels of cortisol in the subjects' saliva at the following four stages: before the challenge, after the challenge, and 10 and 20 min after the task. Participants were divided into two groups according to their level of performance, good or poor, on the IGT. Results showed statistically significant differences between the groups for pre-exposure cortisol levels and for cortisol levels 20 min after exposure. Overall cortisol levels were significantly higher in the group with poor performance on the IGT. It appears that good decision-making, which may be an important resource for coping with stress, is associated with a lower HPA axis response to a psychosocial stressor. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stress-induced cortisol facilitates threat-related decision making among police officers.

Science.gov (United States)

Akinola, Modupe; Mendes, Wendy Berry

2012-02-01

Previous research suggests that cortisol can affect cognitive functions such as memory, decision making, and attentiveness to threat-related cues. Here, we examine whether increases in cortisol, brought on by an acute social stressor, influence threat-related decision making. Eighty-one police officers completed a standardized laboratory stressor and then immediately completed a computer simulated decision-making task designed to examine decisions to accurately shoot or not shoot armed and unarmed Black and White targets. Results indicated that police officers who had larger cortisol increases to the social-stress task subsequently made fewer errors when deciding to shoot armed Black targets relative to armed White targets, suggesting that hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) activation may exacerbate vigilance for threat cues. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of threat-initiated decision making.

Real-Time Personalized Monitoring to Estimate Occupational Heat Stress in Ambient Assisted Working

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Pancardo

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Ambient Assisted Working (AAW is a discipline aiming to provide comfort and safety in the workplace through customization and technology. Workers’ comfort may be compromised in many labor situations, including those depending on environmental conditions, like extremely hot weather conduces to heat stress. Occupational heat stress (OHS happens when a worker is in an uninterrupted physical activity and in a hot environment. OHS can produce strain on the body, which leads to discomfort and eventually to heat illness and even death. Related ISO standards contain methods to estimate OHS and to ensure the safety and health of workers, but they are subjective, impersonal, performed a posteriori and even invasive. This paper focuses on the design and development of real-time personalized monitoring for a more effective and objective estimation of OHS, taking into account the individual user profile, fusing data from environmental and unobtrusive body sensors. Formulas employed in this work were taken from different domains and joined in the method that we propose. It is based on calculations that enable continuous surveillance of physical activity performance in a comfortable and healthy manner. In this proposal, we found that OHS can be estimated by satisfying the following criteria: objective, personalized, in situ, in real time, just in time and in an unobtrusive way. This enables timely notice for workers to make decisions based on objective information to control OHS.

Decision-making model of generation technology under uncertainty based on real option theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ming, Zeng; Ping, Zhang; Shunkun, Yu; Ge, Zhang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. • The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced. • Practical data was used to prove the validity of the model. • Impact of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed. - Abstract: The introduction of market competition and the increased uncertainty factors makes the generators have to decide not only on whether to invest generation capacity or not but also on what kind of generation technology to choose. In this paper, a decision-making model of generation technology investment is proposed. The irreversible investment concept and real option theory is introduced as the fundamental of the model. In order to explain the decision-making process of generator’s investment, the decision-making optimization model was built considering two generation technologies, i.e., the heat-only system and the combined heat and power generation. Also, we discussed the theory deducing process, which explained how to eliminate the overrated economic potential caused by risk hazard, based on economic evaluation of both generation technologies. Finally, practical data from electricity market of Inner Mongolia was used to prove the validity of the model and the impact of uncertainties of electricity and fuel price fluctuation on investment was analyzed according to the simulated results.

Real-life decision making in college students. II: Do individual differences show reliable effects?

Science.gov (United States)

Galotti, Kathleen M; Tandler, Jane M; Wiener, Hillary J D

2014-01-01

First-year undergraduates participated in a short-term longitudinal study of real-life decision making over their first 14 months of college. They were surveyed about 7 different decisions: choosing courses for upcoming terms (on 3 different occasions), choosing an academic major (twice), planning for the upcoming summer, and planning for sophomore-year housing. They also completed a survey of self-reported decision-making styles and the Need for Cognition survey (Cacioppo & Petty, 1982) to assess their focus on rationality and enjoyment of analytic thinking. Results showed few statistically significant correlations between stylistic measures and behavioral measures of decision making, in either the amount of information considered or the way in which the information integration tracked predictions of linear models of decision making applied to each participant's data. However, there were consistent correlations, across the 7 decisions, between stylistic measures and affective reactions to, or retrospective descriptions of, episodes of decision making. We suggest that decision-making styles instruments may better reflect the construction of narratives of self as a decision maker more than they do actual behavior during decision making.

Distributed and organized decision making under resource boundedness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sawaragi, Tetsuo

1994-01-01

The coming bottleneck to be overcome in the era of the distributed and open-architectured environment will be the establishment of the rational design and coordination of the total system where multiple decision makers, problem solvers and automated machinery components coexist interacting with each other. In such an environment, they are not achieving some absolute standard of performance with unlimited amounts of resources nor with simple algorithms, but is doing as well as possible given what resources one has. In this article, we focus on the potentials of decision theory as a tool for tackling with the limited rationality under resource boundedness. First, the bottlenecks for establishing the organized and distributed decision making are summarized, and the importance of the formalization of decision activities of intelligent agents is stressed to establish an efficient and effective cooperation by distributed and organized decision making and/or problem solving. Some of the practical systems developed based on such a principle are reviewed briefly with respect to the real-time man-machine collaboration and the cooperative computational framework for the intelligent mobile robots. (author)

Are Retrenchment Decisions Rational? The Role of Information in Times of Budgetary Stress.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashar, Hanna; Shapiro, Jonathan Z.

1990-01-01

Analysis of the relationship between performance data and changes in faculty size of 40 departments in a College of Arts and Sciences during a time of financial stress found that the rational choice model was applied to decision making. There was a systematic relationship between objective, evaluative data and policy decisions. (MLW)

Intelligent data management for real-time spacecraft monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Schwuttke, Ursula M.; Gasser, Les; Abramson, Bruce

1992-01-01

Real-time AI systems have begun to address the challenge of restructuring problem solving to meet real-time constraints by making key trade-offs that pursue less than optimal strategies with minimal impact on system goals. Several approaches for adapting to dynamic changes in system operating conditions are known. However, simultaneously adapting system decision criteria in a principled way has been difficult. Towards this end, a general technique for dynamically making such trade-offs using a combination of decision theory and domain knowledge has been developed. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), a decision theoretic approach for making one-time decisions is discussed and dynamic trade-off evaluation is described as a knowledge-based extension of MAUT that is suitable for highly dynamic real-time environments, and provides an example of dynamic trade-off evaluation applied to a specific data management trade-off in a real-world spacecraft monitoring application.

Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1996-01-01

A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...

Perturbations in Effort-Related Decision-Making Driven by Acute Stress and Corticotropin-Releasing Factor.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryce, Courtney A; Floresco, Stan B

2016-07-01

Acute stress activates numerous systems in a coordinated effort to promote homeostasis, and can exert differential effects on mnemonic and cognitive functions depending on a myriad of factors. Stress can alter different forms of cost/benefit decision-making, yet the mechanisms that drive these effects, remain unclear. In the present study, we probed how corticotropin-releasing factor (CRF) may contribute to stress-induced alterations in cost/benefit decision-making, using an task where well-trained rats chose between a low effort/low reward lever (LR; two pellets) and a high effort/high reward lever (HR; four pellets), with the effort requirement increasing over a session (2, 5, 10, and 20 presses). One-hour restraint stress markedly reduced preference for the HR option, but this effect was attenuated by infusions of the CRF antagonist, alpha-helical CRF. Conversely, central CRF infusion mimicked the effect of stress on decision-making, as well as increased decision latencies and reduced response vigor. CRF infusions did not alter preference for larger vs smaller rewards, but did reduce responding for food delivered on a progressive ratio, suggesting that these treatments may amplify perceived effort costs that may be required to obtain rewards. CRF infusions into the ventral tegmental area recapitulated the effect of central CRF treatment and restraint on choice behavior, suggesting that these effects may be mediated by perturbations in dopamine transmission. These findings highlight the involvement of CRF in regulating effort-related decisions and suggest that increased CRF activity may contribute to motivational impairments and abnormal decision-making associated with stress-related psychiatric disorders such as depression.

Influence of acute stress on decision outcomes and heuristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hepler, Teri J; Kovacs, Attila J

2017-03-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the take-the-first (TTF) heuristic and decision outcomes in sports under conditions of no, mental, and physical stress. Participants (N.=68) performed 8 video decision-making trials under each of 3 stress conditions: no stress (counting backwards), mental stress (mental serial subtraction), and physical stress (running on treadmill at 13 RPE). Prior to each decision-making trial, participants were exposed to 30 seconds of stress. The decision-making task required participants to watch a video depicting an offensive situation in basketball and then decide what the player with the ball should do next. No differences were found between the 3 stress conditions on TTF frequency, number of options generated, quality of first generated option, or final decision quality. However, participants performing under conditions of no stress and physical stress generated their first option and made their final decision faster than they did when making decisions under mental stress. Overall, results suggest that mental stress impairs decision speed and that TTF is an ecologically rationale heuristic in dynamic, time-pressured situations.

Making real-time reactive systems reliable

Science.gov (United States)

Marzullo, Keith; Wood, Mark

1990-01-01

A reactive system is characterized by a control program that interacts with an environment (or controlled program). The control program monitors the environment and reacts to significant events by sending commands to the environment. This structure is quite general. Not only are most embedded real time systems reactive systems, but so are monitoring and debugging systems and distributed application management systems. Since reactive systems are usually long running and may control physical equipment, fault tolerance is vital. The research tries to understand the principal issues of fault tolerance in real time reactive systems and to build tools that allow a programmer to design reliable, real time reactive systems. In order to make real time reactive systems reliable, several issues must be addressed: (1) How can a control program be built to tolerate failures of sensors and actuators. To achieve this, a methodology was developed for transforming a control program that references physical value into one that tolerates sensors that can fail and can return inaccurate values; (2) How can the real time reactive system be built to tolerate failures of the control program. Towards this goal, whether the techniques presented can be extended to real time reactive systems is investigated; and (3) How can the environment be specified in a way that is useful for writing a control program. Towards this goal, whether a system with real time constraints can be expressed as an equivalent system without such constraints is also investigated.

Effects of Healthy Aging and Mild Cognitive Impairment on a Real-Life Decision-Making Task.

Science.gov (United States)

Pertl, Marie-Theres; Benke, Thomas; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

2017-01-01

In this study, we investigated the effects of age and of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) on decision making under risk by adopting a task representing real-life health-related situations and involving complex numerical information. Moreover, we assessed the relationship of real-life decision making to other cognitive functions such as number processing, executive functions, language, memory, and attention. For this reason, we compared the performance of 19 healthy, relatively younger adults with that of 18 healthy older adults and the performance of the 18 healthy older adults with that of 17 patients with MCI. Results indicated difficulties in real-life decision making for the healthy older adults compared with the healthy, relatively younger adults. Difficulties of patients with MCI relative to the healthy older adults arose in particular in difficult items requiring processing of frequencies and fractions. Significant effects of age and of MCI in processing frequencies were also evident in a ratio number comparison task. Decision-making performance of healthy participants and of the patient group correlated significantly with number processing. There was a further significant correlation with executive functions for the healthy participants and with reading comprehension for the patients. Our results suggest that healthy older individuals and patients with MCI make less advantageous decisions when the information is complex and high demands are put on executive functions and numerical abilities. Moreover, we show that executive functions and numerical abilities are not only essential in laboratory gambling tasks but also in more realistic and ecological decision situations within the health context.

Fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making

CERN Document Server

Xu, Jiuping

2014-01-01

Decision has inspired reflection of many thinkers since the ancient times. With the rapid development of science and society, appropriate dynamic decision making has been playing an increasingly important role in many areas of human activity including engineering, management, economy and others. In most real-world problems, decision makers usually have to make decisions sequentially at different points in time and space, at different levels for a component or a system, while facing multiple and conflicting objectives and a hybrid uncertain environment where fuzziness and randomness co-exist in a decision making process. This leads to the development of fuzzy-like multiple objective multistage decision making. This book provides a thorough understanding of the concepts of dynamic optimization from a modern perspective and presents the state-of-the-art methodology for modeling, analyzing and solving the most typical multiple objective multistage decision making practical application problems under fuzzy-like un...

Irrational time allocation in decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Oud, Bastiaan; Krajbich, Ian; Miller, Kevin; Cheong, Jin Hyun; Botvinick, Matthew; Fehr, Ernst

2016-01-13

Time is an extremely valuable resource but little is known about the efficiency of time allocation in decision-making. Empirical evidence suggests that in many ecologically relevant situations, decision difficulty and the relative reward from making a correct choice, compared to an incorrect one, are inversely linked, implying that it is optimal to use relatively less time for difficult choice problems. This applies, in particular, to value-based choices, in which the relative reward from choosing the higher valued item shrinks as the values of the other options get closer to the best option and are thus more difficult to discriminate. Here, we experimentally show that people behave sub-optimally in such contexts. They do not respond to incentives that favour the allocation of time to choice problems in which the relative reward for choosing the best option is high; instead they spend too much time on problems in which the reward difference between the options is low. We demonstrate this by showing that it is possible to improve subjects' time allocation with a simple intervention that cuts them off when their decisions take too long. Thus, we provide a novel form of evidence that organisms systematically spend their valuable time in an inefficient way, and simultaneously offer a potential solution to the problem. © 2016 The Author(s).

Dopamine and Stress System Modulation of Sex Differences in Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Georgiou, Polymnia; Zanos, Panos; Bhat, Shambhu; Tracy, J Kathleen; Merchenthaler, Istvan J; McCarthy, Margaret M; Gould, Todd D

2018-01-01

Maladaptive decision making is associated with several neuropsychiatric disorders, including problem gambling and suicidal behavior. The prevalence of these disorders is higher in men vs women, suggesting gender-dependent regulation of their pathophysiology underpinnings. We assessed sex differences in decision making using the rat version of the Iowa gambling task. Female rats identified the most optimal choice from session 1, whereas male rats from session 5. Male, but not female rats, progressively improved their advantageous option responding and surpassed females. Estrus cycle phase did not affect decision making. To test whether pharmacological manipulations targeting the dopaminergic and stress systems affect decision making in a sex-dependent manner, male and female rats received injections of a dopamine D 2 receptor (D 2 R) antagonist (eticlopride), D 2 R agonist (quinpirole), corticotropin-releasing factor 1 (CRF 1 ) antagonist (antalarmin), and α 2 -adrenergic receptor antagonist (yohimbine; used as a pharmacological stressor). Alterations in mRNA levels of D 2 R and CRF 1 were also assessed. Eticlopride decreased advantageous responding in male, but not female rats, whereas quinpirole decreased advantageous responding specifically in females. Yohimbine dose-dependently decreased advantageous responding in female rats, whereas decreased advantageous responding was only observed at higher doses in males. Antalarmin increased optimal choice responding only in female rats. Higher Drd2 and Crhr1 expression in the amygdala were observed in female vs male rats. Higher amygdalar Crhr1 expression was negatively correlated with advantageous responding specifically in females. This study demonstrates the relevance of dopaminergic- and stress-dependent sex differences to maladaptive decision making.

Real-time multiparameter pulse processing with decision tables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hull, K.; Griffin, H.

1986-01-01

Decision tables offer several advantages over other real-time multiparameter, data processing techniques. These include very high collection rates, minimum number of computer instructions, rates independent of the number of conditions applied per parameter, ease of adding or removing conditions during a session, and simplicity of implementation. Decisions table processing is important in multiparameter nuclear spectroscopy, coincidence experiments, multiparameter pulse processing (HgI 2 resolution enhancement, pulse discrimination, timing spectroscopy), and other applications can be easily implemented. (orig.)

Interfacing Agents to Real-Time Strategy Games

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Andreas Schmidt; Kaysø-Rørdam, Christian; Villadsen, Jørgen

2015-01-01

In real-time strategy games players make decisions and control their units simultaneously. Players are required to make decisions under time pressure and should be able to control multiple units at once in order to be successful. We present the design and implementation of a multi-agent interface...

The influence of stress and mood on decision making in critical situations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rondeel, E.W.M.; Kempen, M.H.; Wijngaards, N.J.E.; Nieuwenhuis, C.H.M.; Holland, R.W.

2009-01-01

In this position paper a number of hypotheses are outlined concerning the effect of three measurable human factors, namely subjective stress, arousal and mood, on human decision making performance; taking into account the amount of risk involved in the decision. The proposed domain of application

Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

2012-01-01

In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

Time Perspective and Career Decision-Making Difficulties in Adults

Science.gov (United States)

Taber, Brian J.

2013-01-01

Decision making is not only contingent upon what takes place in the present but also on how one feels about the past and one's hopes for the future. However, when it comes to time perspective and career decision making, vocational psychology has focused exclusively on future time perspective. The present study examines the relations among past,…

Real-time decision support and information gathering system for financial domain

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Chiu-Che; Gmytrasiewicz, Piotr J.

2006-05-01

The challenge of the investment domain is that a large amount of diverse information can be potentially relevant to an investment decision, and that, frequently, the decisions have to be made in a timely manner. This presents the potential for better decision support, but poses the challenge of building a decision support agent that gathers information from different sources and incorporates it for timely decision support. These problems motivate us to investigate ways in which the investors can be equipped with a flexible real-time decision support system to be practical in time-critical situations. The flexible real-time decision support system considers a tradeoff between decision quality and computation cost. For this purpose, we propose a system that uses the object oriented Bayesian knowledge base (OOBKB) design to create a decision model at the most suitable level of detail to guide the information gathering activities, and to produce an investment recommendation within a reasonable length of time. The decision models our system uses are implemented as influence diagrams. We validate our system with experiments in a simplified investment domain. The experiments show that our system produces a quality recommendation under different urgency situations. The contribution of our system is that it provides the flexible decision recommendation for an investor under time constraints in a complex environment.

Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

Science.gov (United States)

Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

2013-01-01

We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

Real-time threat evaluation in a ground based air defence environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JN Roux

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In a military environment a ground based air defence operator is required to evaluate the tactical situation in real-time and protect Defended Assets (DAs on the ground against aerial threats by assigning available Weapon Systems (WSs to engage enemy aircraft. Since this aerial environment requires rapid operational planning and decision making in stress situations, the associated responsibilities are typically divided between a number of operators and computerized systems that aid these operators during the decision making processes. One such a Decision Support System (DSS, a threat evaluation and weapon assignment system, assigns threat values to aircraft (with respect to DAs in real-time and uses these values to propose possible engagements of observed enemy aircraft by anti-aircraft WSs. In this paper a design of the threat evaluation part of such a DSS is put forward. The design follows the structured approach suggested in [Roux JN & van Vuuren JH, 2007, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, ORiON, 23(2, pp. 151-187], phasing in a suite of increasingly complex qualitative and quantitative model components as more (reliable data become available.

The effects of stress on nuclear power plant operational decision making and training approaches to reduce stress effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mumaw, R.J.

1994-08-01

Operational personnel may be exposed to significant levels of stress during unexpected changes in plant state an plant emergencies. The decision making that identifies operational actions, which is strongly determined by procedures, may be affected by stress, and performance may be impaired. ER report analyzes potential effects of stress in nuclear power plant (NPP) settings, especially in the context of severe accident management (SAM). First, potential sources of stress in the NPP setting are identified. This analysis is followed by a review of the ways in which stress is likely to affect performance, with an emphasis on performance of cognitive skills that are linked to operational decision making. Finally, potential training approaches for reducing or eliminating stress effects are identified. Several training approaches have the potential to eliminate or mitigate stress effects on cognitive skill performance. First, the use of simulated events for training can reduce the novelty and uncertainty that can lead to stress and performance impairments. Second, training to make cognitive processing more efficient and less reliant on attention and memory resources can offset the reductions in these resources that occur under stressful conditions. Third, training that targets crew communications skills can reduce the likelihood that communications will fail under stress

The effects of stress on nuclear power plant operational decision making and training approaches to reduce stress effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mumaw, R.J.

1994-08-01

Operational personnel may be exposed to significant levels of stress during unexpected changes in plant state an plant emergencies. The decision making that identifies operational actions, which is strongly determined by procedures, may be affected by stress, and performance may be impaired. ER report analyzes potential effects of stress in nuclear power plant (NPP) settings, especially in the context of severe accident management (SAM). First, potential sources of stress in the NPP setting are identified. This analysis is followed by a review of the ways in which stress is likely to affect performance, with an emphasis on performance of cognitive skills that are linked to operational decision making. Finally, potential training approaches for reducing or eliminating stress effects are identified. Several training approaches have the potential to eliminate or mitigate stress effects on cognitive skill performance. First, the use of simulated events for training can reduce the novelty and uncertainty that can lead to stress and performance impairments. Second, training to make cognitive processing more efficient and less reliant on attention and memory resources can offset the reductions in these resources that occur under stressful conditions. Third, training that targets crew communications skills can reduce the likelihood that communications will fail under stress.

Fuzzy Specification in Real Estate Market Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria Lopez

2010-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper we present a software tool designed as a decision aid system for all actors being involved when buying or selling real state, client and realtor, where a main objective for the commercial is to concentrate the client preferences into few alternatives. Since the required previous analysis implies a number of fuzzy concepts, the general procedure here presented considers fuzzy logic to deal with specifications. As a consequence, time devoted to elicitation and requirement analysis is reduced.

Differential effects of social stress on laboratory-based decision-making are related to both impulsive personality traits and gender.

Science.gov (United States)

Wise, Richard J; Phung, Alissa L; Labuschagne, Izelle; Stout, Julie C

2015-01-01

Urgency is the tendency to make impulsive decisions under extreme positive or negative emotional states. Stress, gender and impulsive personality traits are all known to influence decision-making, but no studies have examined the interplay of all of these factors. We exposed 78 men and women to a stress or a non-stress condition, and then administered the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. We found that stress effects varied as a function of gender and urgency traits. Under stress, women low in negative urgency and men high in negative urgency made fewer risky decisions. Positive urgency yielded a similar pattern. Thus, decisions under stress depend on a complex interplay between gender and impulsive personality traits. These findings have implications for clinical disorders, such as substance use disorders, in which there are known deficits in decision-making and high levels of impulsive traits.

Empathy and Stress Related Neural Responses in Maternal Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Shaun Ho

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Mothers need to make caregiving decisions to meet the needs of children, which may or may not result in positive child feedback. Variations in caregivers’ emotional reactivity to unpleasant child-feedback may be partially explained by their dispositional empathy levels. Furthermore, empathic response to the child’s unpleasant feedback likely helps mothers to regulate their own stress. We investigated the relationship between maternal dispositional empathy, stress reactivity, and neural correlates of child feedback to caregiving decisions. In Part 1 of the study, 33 female participants were recruited to undergo a lab-based mild stressor, the Social Evaluation Test (SET, and then in Part 2 of the study, a subset of the participants, fourteen mothers, performed a Parenting Decision Making Task (PDMT in an fMRI setting. Four dimensions of dispositional empathy based on the Interpersonal Reactivity Index were measured in all participants – Personal Distress, Empathic Concern, Perspective Taking, and Fantasy. Overall, we found that the Personal Distress and Perspective Taking were associated with greater and lesser cortisol reactivity, respectively. The four types of empathy were distinctly associated with the negative (versus positive child feedback activation in the brain. Personal Distress was associated with amygdala and hypothalamus activation, Empathic Concern with the left ventral striatum, ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC, and supplemental motor area (SMA activation, and Fantasy with the septal area, right SMA and VLPFC activation. Interestingly, hypothalamus-septal coupling during the negative feedback condition was associated with less PDMT-related cortisol reactivity. The roles of distinct forms of dispositional empathy in neural and stress responses are discussed.

Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1998-01-01

To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

Stress and decision making: the role of impulsive personality

OpenAIRE

Wise, Richard Julian

2017-01-01

Stress, gender, and impulsive personality traits are each associated with altered decision making, but no studies have yet examined interactions between all of these factors. Impulsive personality can be parsed into five subtypes, consisting of Negative Urgency, the tendency to act rashly in the face of extreme negative emotion; Positive Urgency, the tendency to act rashly in the face of strong positive emotion; Lack of Premeditation, the tendency to insufficiently consider actions prior to t...

Make up your mind - How stress and sex affect decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koot, S.

2013-01-01

Decision-making refers to assessing costs and benefits of competing actions, with either a known outcome or an uncertain result. Decision-making depends on several abilities, such as behavioural flexibility and inhibiting risky responses. Several factors affect decision-making, causing differences

Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

2016-01-01

Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

Does spending time outdoors reduce stress? A review of real-time stress response to outdoor environments

Science.gov (United States)

Michelle C. Kondo; Sara F. Jacoby; Eugenia C. South

2018-01-01

Everyday environmental conditions impact human health. One mechanism underlying this relationship is the experience of stress. Through systematic review of published literature, we explore how stress has been measured in real-time non-laboratory studies of stress responses to deliberate exposure to outdoor environments. The types of exposures evaluated in this review...

Methods and decision making on a Mars rover for identification of fossils

Science.gov (United States)

Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi

1989-01-01

A system for automated fusion and interpretation of image data from multiple sensors, including multispectral data from an imaging spectrometer is being developed. Classical artificial intelligence techniques and artificial neural networks are employed to make real time decision based on current input and known scientific goals. Emphasis is placed on identifying minerals which could indicate past life activity or an environment supportive of life. Multispectral data can be used for geological analysis because different minerals have characteristic spectral reflectance in the visible and near infrared range. Classification of each spectrum into a broad class, based on overall spectral shape and locations of absorption bands is possible in real time using artificial neural networks. The goal of the system is twofold: multisensor and multispectral data must be interpreted in real time so that potentially interesting sites can be flagged and investigated in more detail while the rover is near those sites; and the sensed data must be reduced to the most compact form possible without loss of crucial information. Autonomous decision making will allow a rover to achieve maximum scientific benefit from a mission. Both a classical rule based approach and a decision neural network for making real time choices are being considered. Neural nets may work well for adaptive decision making. A neural net can be trained to work in two steps. First, the actual input state is mapped to the closest of a number of memorized states. After weighing the importance of various input parameters, the net produces an output decision based on the matched memory state. Real time, autonomous image data analysis and decision making capabilities are required for achieving maximum scientific benefit from a rover mission. The system under development will enhance the chances of identifying fossils or environments capable of supporting life on Mars

FTA real-time transit information assessment : white paper on literature review of real-time transit information systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Real-time transit information systems are key technology applications within the transit industry designed to provide better customer service by disseminating timely and accurate information. Riders use this information to make various decisions abou...

The effects of stress and affiliation on social decision-making: Investigating the tend-and-befriend pattern.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinbeis, Nikolaus; Engert, Veronika; Linz, Roman; Singer, Tania

2015-12-01

The prevalence of psychosocial stress in Western societies is constantly on the rise. Its influence on social decision-making, however, remains poorly understood. Whereas, it is known that stress triggers psychological and physiological defense mechanisms, indications of such patterns in social decisions are ambivalent. We sought to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of stress-induced social decisions. We recruited 145 men, who were individually exposed to either a psychosocial stressor or a control condition, while primed with affiliation by interacting either with members of an in- or an out-group. We found that stressed participants were less trusting and engaged in less costly punishment compared to the non-stressed control group. Interacting with out-group members led to less reciprocity and more spiteful punishment. There was no interaction between stress and the affiliation conditions in any of the used social-decision-making paradigms. Lastly, while stress-reactive cortisol levels had no effect on trust behavior, higher baseline cortisol was correlated with greater trust. Our findings suggest that previous ambiguities in data reported on the influence of stress on social decisions, namely tend-and-befriend behavior may have arisen through critical social confounds in the induction of stress. When controlling for potential social confounds, stress may trigger fight-or-flight behavior as indicated by increased social anxiety. These findings highlight the considerable context-dependence of psychosocial stress and its effects on social behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model of real estate and psychological factors in decision-making to buy real estate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bojan Grum

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This article explores the psychological characteristics of potential real estate buyers connected with their decision to buy. Through a review of research, it reveals that most studies of psychological factors in the decision to buy real estate have a partial and dispersed orientation, and examine individual factors independently. It appears that the research area is lacking clearly defined models of psychological factors in the decision to buy real estate that would integrally and relationally explain the role of psychological characteristics of real estate buyers and their expectations in relation to a decision to buy. The article identifies two sets of psychological factors, motivational and emotional, determines their interaction with potential buyers’ expectations when deciding to purchase real estate and offers starting points for forming a model.

Collaborative Platforms Aid Emergency Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Terra. Aqua. Cloudsat. Landsat. NASA runs and partners in many missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth, and the tools used in these missions continuously return data on everything from shifts in temperature to cloud formation to pollution levels over highways. The data are of great scientific value, but they also provide information that can play a critical role in decision making during times of crisis. Real-time developments in weather, wind, ocean currents, and numerous other conditions can have a significant impact on the way disasters, both natural and human-caused, unfold. "NASA has long recognized the need to make its data from real-time sources compatible and accessible for the purposes of decision making," says Michael Goodman, who was Disasters Program manager at NASA Headquarters from 2009-2012. "There are practical applications of NASA Earth science data, and we d like to accelerate the use of those applications." One of the main obstacles standing in the way of eminently practical data is the fact that the data from different missions are collected, formatted, and stored in different ways. Combining data sets in a way that makes them useful for decision makers has proven to be a difficult task. And while the need for a collaborative platform is widely recognized, very few have successfully made it work. Dave Jones, founder and CEO of StormCenter Communications Inc., which consults with decision makers to prepare for emergencies, says that "when I talk to public authorities, they say, If I had a nickel for every time someone told me they had a common operating platform, I d be rich. But one thing we ve seen over the years is that no one has been able to give end users the ability to ingest NASA data sets and merge them with their own."

Humans Optimize Decision-Making by Delaying Decision Onset

Science.gov (United States)

Teichert, Tobias; Ferrera, Vincent P.; Grinband, Jack

2014-01-01

Why do humans make errors on seemingly trivial perceptual decisions? It has been shown that such errors occur in part because the decision process (evidence accumulation) is initiated before selective attention has isolated the relevant sensory information from salient distractors. Nevertheless, it is typically assumed that subjects increase accuracy by prolonging the decision process rather than delaying decision onset. To date it has not been tested whether humans can strategically delay decision onset to increase response accuracy. To address this question we measured the time course of selective attention in a motion interference task using a novel variant of the response signal paradigm. Based on these measurements we estimated time-dependent drift rate and showed that subjects should in principle be able trade speed for accuracy very effectively by delaying decision onset. Using the time-dependent estimate of drift rate we show that subjects indeed delay decision onset in addition to raising response threshold when asked to stress accuracy over speed in a free reaction version of the same motion-interference task. These findings show that decision onset is a critical aspect of the decision process that can be adjusted to effectively improve decision accuracy. PMID:24599295

Real-time data to improve en route decision making and reduce transportation demand.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-07-01

One approach to mitigating traffic and strains on the transportation system is to shift focus from supply to demand. : When provided with good information and sufficient motivation, users of a transportation system can make : decisions that will resu...

Satisficing in Split-Second Decision Making Is Characterized by Strategic Cue Discounting

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M.; Zhu, Pingping; Sommer, Marc A.; Ferrari, Silvia; Egner, Tobias

2016-01-01

Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through "satisficing," fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of…

Stressors, Appraisal of Stressors, Experienced Stress and Cardiac Response: A Real-Time, Real-Life Investigation of Work Stress in Nurses.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Derek; Bell, Cheryl; Jones, Martyn; Farquharson, Barbara; Allan, Julia; Schofield, Patricia; Ricketts, Ian; Johnston, Marie

2016-04-01

Stress in health care professionals may reflect both the work and appraisal of work and impacts on the individuals, their patients, colleagues and managers. The purpose of the present study is to examine physiological and psychological effects of stressors (tasks) and theory-based perceptions of work stressors within and between nurses in real time. During two work shifts, 100 nurses rated experienced stress, affect, fatigue, theory-based measures of work stress and nursing tasks on electronic diaries every 90 min, whereas heart rate and activity were measured continuously. Heart rate was associated with both demand and effort. Experienced stress was related to demand, control, effort and reward. Effort and reward interacted as predicted (but only within people). Results were unchanged when allowance was made for work tasks. Real-time appraisals were more important than actual tasks in predicting both psychological and physiological correlates of stress. At times when effort was high, perceived reward reduced stress.

Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration Supply Chain Integration

CERN Document Server

Lettice, Fiona; Durowoju, Olatunde

2012-01-01

Effective supply chain integration, and the tight co-ordination it creates, is an essential pre-requisite for successful supply chain management.  Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration is a practical reference on recent research in the area of supply chain integration focusing on distributed decision-making problems. Recent applications of various decision-making tools for integrating supply chains are covered including chapters focusing on: •Supplier selection, pricing strategy and inventory decisions in multi-level supply chains, •RFID-enabled distributed decision-making, •Operational risk issues and time-critical decision-making for sensitive logistics nodes, Modelling end to end processes to improve supply chain integration, and •Integrated systems to improve service delivery and optimize resource use. Decision-Making for Supply Chain Integration provides an insight into the tools and methodologies of this field with support from real-life case studies demonstrating successful application ...

Social modulation of decision-making: a cross-species review

Science.gov (United States)

van den Bos, Ruud; Jolles, Jolle W.; Homberg, Judith R.

2013-01-01

Taking decisions plays a pivotal role in daily life and comprises a complex process of assessing and weighing short-term and long-term costs and benefits of competing actions. Decision-making has been shown to be affected by factors such as sex, age, genotype, and personality. Importantly, also the social environment affects decisions, both via social interactions (e.g., social learning, cooperation and competition) and social stress effects. Although everyone is aware of this social modulating role on daily life decisions, this has thus far only scarcely been investigated in human and animal studies. Furthermore, neuroscientific studies rarely discuss social influence on decision-making from a functional perspective such as done in behavioral ecology studies. Therefore, the first aim of this article is to review the available data of the influence of the social context on decision-making both from a causal and functional perspective, drawing on animal and human studies. Also, there is currently still a gap between decision-making in real life where influences of the social environment are extensive, and decision-making as measured in the laboratory, which is often done without any (deliberate) social influences. However, methods are being developed to bridge this gap. Therefore, the second aim of this review is to discuss these methods and ways in which this gap can be increasingly narrowed. We end this review by formulating future research questions. PMID:23805092

Predicting human decisions in socioeconomic interaction using real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (rtfMRI)

Science.gov (United States)

Hollmann, Maurice; Mönch, Tobias; Müller, Charles; Bernarding, Johannes

2009-02-01

A major field in cognitive neuroscience investigates neuronal correlates of human decision-making processes [1, 2]. Is it possible to predict a decision before it is actually revealed by the volunteer? In the presented manuscript we use a standard paradigm from economic behavioral research that proved emotional influences on human decision making: the Ultimatum Game (UG). In the UG, two players have the opportunity to split a sum of money. One player is deemed the proposer and the other, the responder. The proposer makes an offer as to how this money should be split between the two. The second player can either accept or reject this offer. If it is accepted, the money is split as proposed. If rejected, then neither player receives anything. In the presented study a real-time fMRI system was used to derive the brain activation of the responder. Using a Relevance-Vector-Machine classifier it was possible to predict if the responder will accept or reject an offer. The classification result was presented to the operator 1-2 seconds before the volunteer pressed a button to convey his decision. The classification accuracy reached about 70% averaged over six subjects.

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

Science.gov (United States)

Elgin, Peter D.; Thomas, Rickey P.

2004-01-01

The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

A general theory of intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vijay Mohan eK Namboodiri

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Animals and humans make decisions based on their expected outcomes. Since relevant outcomes are often delayed, perceiving delays and choosing between earlier versus later rewards (intertemporal decision-making is an essential component of animal behavior. The myriad observations made in experiments studying intertemporal decision-making and time perception have not yet been rationalized within a single theory. Here we present a theory—Training-Integrated Maximized Estimation of Reinforcement Rate (TIMERR—that explains a wide variety of behavioral observations made in intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time. Our theory postulates that animals make intertemporal choices to optimize expected reward rates over a limited temporal window which includes a past integration interval—over which experienced reward rate is estimated—as well as the expected delay to future reward. Using this theory, we derive mathematical expressions for both the subjective value of a delayed reward and the subjective representation of the delay. A unique contribution of our work is in finding that the past integration interval directly determines the steepness of temporal discounting and the nonlinearity of time perception. In so doing, our theory provides a single framework to understand both intertemporal decision-making and time perception.

A general theory of intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time.

Science.gov (United States)

Namboodiri, Vijay M K; Mihalas, Stefan; Marton, Tanya M; Hussain Shuler, Marshall G

2014-01-01

Animals and humans make decisions based on their expected outcomes. Since relevant outcomes are often delayed, perceiving delays and choosing between earlier vs. later rewards (intertemporal decision-making) is an essential component of animal behavior. The myriad observations made in experiments studying intertemporal decision-making and time perception have not yet been rationalized within a single theory. Here we present a theory-Training-Integrated Maximized Estimation of Reinforcement Rate (TIMERR)-that explains a wide variety of behavioral observations made in intertemporal decision-making and the perception of time. Our theory postulates that animals make intertemporal choices to optimize expected reward rates over a limited temporal window which includes a past integration interval-over which experienced reward rate is estimated-as well as the expected delay to future reward. Using this theory, we derive mathematical expressions for both the subjective value of a delayed reward and the subjective representation of the delay. A unique contribution of our work is in finding that the past integration interval directly determines the steepness of temporal discounting and the non-linearity of time perception. In so doing, our theory provides a single framework to understand both intertemporal decision-making and time perception.

Cloud-Hosted Real-time Data Services for the Geosciences (CHORDS)

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, M. D.; Graves, S. J.; Vernon, F.; Kerkez, B.; Chandra, C. V.; Keiser, K.; Martin, C.

2014-12-01

Cloud-Hosted Real-time Data Services for the Geosciences (CHORDS) Access, utilization and management of real-time data continue to be challenging for decision makers, as well as researchers in several scientific fields. This presentation will highlight infrastructure aimed at addressing some of the gaps in handling real-time data, particularly in increasing accessibility of these data to the scientific community through cloud services. The Cloud-Hosted Real-time Data Services for the Geosciences (CHORDS) system addresses the ever-increasing importance of real-time scientific data, particularly in mission critical scenarios, where informed decisions must be made rapidly. Advances in the distribution of real-time data are leading many new transient phenomena in space-time to be observed, however real-time decision-making is infeasible in many cases that require streaming scientific data as these data are locked down and sent only to proprietary in-house tools or displays. This lack of accessibility to the broader scientific community prohibits algorithm development and workflows initiated by these data streams. As part of NSF's EarthCube initiative, CHORDS proposes to make real-time data available to the academic community via cloud services. The CHORDS infrastructure will enhance the role of real-time data within the geosciences, specifically expanding the potential of streaming data sources in enabling adaptive experimentation and real-time hypothesis testing. Adherence to community data and metadata standards will promote the integration of CHORDS real-time data with existing standards-compliant analysis, visualization and modeling tools.

Building flexible real-time systems using the Flex language

Science.gov (United States)

Kenny, Kevin B.; Lin, Kwei-Jay

1991-01-01

The design and implementation of a real-time programming language called Flex, which is a derivative of C++, are presented. It is shown how different types of timing requirements might be expressed and enforced in Flex, how they might be fulfilled in a flexible way using different program models, and how the programming environment can help in making binding and scheduling decisions. The timing constraint primitives in Flex are easy to use yet powerful enough to define both independent and relative timing constraints. Program models like imprecise computation and performance polymorphism can carry out flexible real-time programs. In addition, programmers can use a performance measurement tool that produces statistically correct timing models to predict the expected execution time of a program and to help make binding decisions. A real-time programming environment is also presented.

Computationally determining the salience of decision points for real-time wayfinding support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Makoto Takemiya

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This study introduces the concept of computational salience to explain the discriminatory efficacy of decision points, which in turn may have applications to providing real-time assistance to users of navigational aids. This research compared algorithms for calculating the computational salience of decision points and validated the results via three methods: high-salience decision points were used to classify wayfinders; salience scores were used to weight a conditional probabilistic scoring function for real-time wayfinder performance classification; and salience scores were correlated with wayfinding-performance metrics. As an exploratory step to linking computational and cognitive salience, a photograph-recognition experiment was conducted. Results reveal a distinction between algorithms useful for determining computational and cognitive saliences. For computational salience, information about the structural integration of decision points is effective, while information about the probability of decision-point traversal shows promise for determining cognitive salience. Limitations from only using structural information and motivations for future work that include non-structural information are elicited.

The impact of stress on financial decision-making varies as a function of depression and anxiety symptoms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliver J. Robinson

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Stress can precipitate the onset of mood and anxiety disorders. This may occur, at least in part, via a modulatory effect of stress on decision-making. Some individuals are, however, more resilient to the effects of stress than others. The mechanisms underlying such vulnerability differences are nevertheless unknown. In this study we attempted to begin quantifying individual differences in vulnerability by exploring the effect of experimentally induced stress on decision-making. The threat of unpredictable shock was used to induce stress in healthy volunteers (N = 47 using a within-subjects, within-session design, and its impact on a financial decision-making task (the Iowa Gambling Task was assessed alongside anxious and depressive symptomatology. As expected, participants learned to select advantageous decks and avoid disadvantageous decks. Importantly, we found that stress provoked a pattern of harm-avoidant behaviour (decreased selection of disadvantageous decks in individuals with low levels of trait anxiety. By contrast, individuals with high trait anxiety demonstrated the opposite pattern: stress-induced risk-seeking (increased selection of disadvantageous decks. These contrasting influences of stress depending on mood and anxiety symptoms might provide insight into vulnerability to common mental illness. In particular, we speculate that those who adopt a more harm-avoidant strategy may be better able to regulate their exposure to further environmental stress, reducing their susceptibility to mood and anxiety disorders.

The impact of stress on financial decision-making varies as a function of depression and anxiety symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Oliver J; Bond, Rebecca L; Roiser, Jonathan P

2015-01-01

Stress can precipitate the onset of mood and anxiety disorders. This may occur, at least in part, via a modulatory effect of stress on decision-making. Some individuals are, however, more resilient to the effects of stress than others. The mechanisms underlying such vulnerability differences are nevertheless unknown. In this study we attempted to begin quantifying individual differences in vulnerability by exploring the effect of experimentally induced stress on decision-making. The threat of unpredictable shock was used to induce stress in healthy volunteers (N = 47) using a within-subjects, within-session design, and its impact on a financial decision-making task (the Iowa Gambling Task) was assessed alongside anxious and depressive symptomatology. As expected, participants learned to select advantageous decks and avoid disadvantageous decks. Importantly, we found that stress provoked a pattern of harm-avoidant behaviour (decreased selection of disadvantageous decks) in individuals with low levels of trait anxiety. By contrast, individuals with high trait anxiety demonstrated the opposite pattern: stress-induced risk-seeking (increased selection of disadvantageous decks). These contrasting influences of stress depending on mood and anxiety symptoms might provide insight into vulnerability to common mental illness. In particular, we speculate that those who adopt a more harm-avoidant strategy may be better able to regulate their exposure to further environmental stress, reducing their susceptibility to mood and anxiety disorders.

Predicting decisions in human social interactions using real-time fMRI and pattern classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Hollmann, Maurice; Rieger, Jochem W; Baecke, Sebastian; Lützkendorf, Ralf; Müller, Charles; Adolf, Daniela; Bernarding, Johannes

2011-01-01

Negotiation and trade typically require a mutual interaction while simultaneously resting in uncertainty which decision the partner ultimately will make at the end of the process. Assessing already during the negotiation in which direction one's counterpart tends would provide a tremendous advantage. Recently, neuroimaging techniques combined with multivariate pattern classification of the acquired data have made it possible to discriminate subjective states of mind on the basis of their neuronal activation signature. However, to enable an online-assessment of the participant's mind state both approaches need to be extended to a real-time technique. By combining real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and online pattern classification techniques, we show that it is possible to predict human behavior during social interaction before the interacting partner communicates a specific decision. Average accuracy reached approximately 70% when we predicted online the decisions of volunteers playing the ultimatum game, a well-known paradigm in economic game theory. Our results demonstrate the successful online analysis of complex emotional and cognitive states using real-time fMRI, which will enable a major breakthrough for social fMRI by providing information about mental states of partners already during the mutual interaction. Interestingly, an additional whole brain classification across subjects confirmed the online results: anterior insula, ventral striatum, and lateral orbitofrontal cortex, known to act in emotional self-regulation and reward processing for adjustment of behavior, appeared to be strong determinants of later overt behavior in the ultimatum game. Using whole brain classification we were also able to discriminate between brain processes related to subjective emotional and motivational states and brain processes related to the evaluation of objective financial incentives.

Predicting decisions in human social interactions using real-time fMRI and pattern classification.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maurice Hollmann

Full Text Available Negotiation and trade typically require a mutual interaction while simultaneously resting in uncertainty which decision the partner ultimately will make at the end of the process. Assessing already during the negotiation in which direction one's counterpart tends would provide a tremendous advantage. Recently, neuroimaging techniques combined with multivariate pattern classification of the acquired data have made it possible to discriminate subjective states of mind on the basis of their neuronal activation signature. However, to enable an online-assessment of the participant's mind state both approaches need to be extended to a real-time technique. By combining real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI and online pattern classification techniques, we show that it is possible to predict human behavior during social interaction before the interacting partner communicates a specific decision. Average accuracy reached approximately 70% when we predicted online the decisions of volunteers playing the ultimatum game, a well-known paradigm in economic game theory. Our results demonstrate the successful online analysis of complex emotional and cognitive states using real-time fMRI, which will enable a major breakthrough for social fMRI by providing information about mental states of partners already during the mutual interaction. Interestingly, an additional whole brain classification across subjects confirmed the online results: anterior insula, ventral striatum, and lateral orbitofrontal cortex, known to act in emotional self-regulation and reward processing for adjustment of behavior, appeared to be strong determinants of later overt behavior in the ultimatum game. Using whole brain classification we were also able to discriminate between brain processes related to subjective emotional and motivational states and brain processes related to the evaluation of objective financial incentives.

The Needs of Hybrid Systems Configuration for Real - Time Decision - Making Process in Surgery

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Tritto, G

2001-01-01

...: sensors, actuators, mechatronic systems and tools in Minimally Invasive Surgery (MIS) and Microsurgery require nonlinear interpretation and control systems to interface with the computer-assisted decision making process of the surgeon at work...

Educational Decision-Making: Rationality and the Impact of Time

Science.gov (United States)

Adshead, Lesley; Jamieson, Anne

2008-01-01

This paper explores educational decision-making within a life course perspective. It draws on interviews carried out with 34 people, ages 30-81, as part of a longitudinal study into educational experiences of part-time mature students in continuing education at a London university. It considers to what extent their decisions about study are…

Social modulation of decision-making: a cross-species review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruud eVan Den Bos

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Taking decisions plays a pivotal role in daily life and comprises a complex process of assessing and weighing short-term and long-term costs and benefits of competing actions. Decision-making has been shown to be affected by factors such as sex, age, genotype and personality. Importantly, also the social environment affects decisions, both via social interactions (e.g. social learning, cooperation and competition and social stress effects. Although everyone is aware of this social modulating role on daily life decisions, this has thus far only scarcely been investigated in human and animal studies. Furthermore, neuroscientific studies rarely discuss social influence on decision-making from a functional perspective such as done in behavioural ecology studies. Therefore, the first aim of this article is to review the available data of the influence of the social context on decision-making both from a causal and functional perspective, drawing on animal and human studies. Also, there is currently still a gap between decision-making in real life where influences of the social environment are extensive, and decision-making as measured in the laboratory, which is often done without any (deliberate social influences. However, methods are being developed to bridge this gap. Therefore, the second aim of this review is to discuss these methods and ways in which this gap can be increasingly narrowed. We end this review by formulating future research questions.

Review of real-time on-line decision support system RODOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rossi, J.

1997-01-01

RODOS (Real Time Off-site Decision Support System) is a research project, which aims at the development of a versatile decision support system for management of reactor accident off-site consequence assessments in real-time in Europe and in the western parts of the former Soviet Union. The system employs both local and regional environmental radiation monitoring results and meteorological forecasts by means of which the software prepares consistent predictions ranging from the release area to long distances covering all temporal phases of the accident. The data to be obtained from the environment will be processed and based on the mathematical and physical models and it will be prepared to intelligibly form about the prevalent or future environmental radiation situation. The software is intended for operative use of radiation safety authorities. Furthermore, the software is suitable for education and training of rescue field personnel. (refs.)

Complex decision-making: initial results of an empirical study

OpenAIRE

Pier Luigi Baldi

2011-01-01

A brief survey of key literature on emotions and decision-making introduces an empirical study of a group of university students exploring the effects of decision-making complexity on error risk. The results clearly show that decision-making under stress in the experimental group produces significantly more errors than in the stress-free control group.

Crisis decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holsti, O.R.

1989-01-01

This article presents evidence that the potential loss of control of events by officials who must operate under conditions that generate substantial stress is one of the central problems of crisis decision making. Examples of U.S. crises management and alliance management are reviewed, and possible tools for improving crisis management decisions are discussed. This article particularly focuses on crises which may lead to nuclear war

Complex decision-making: initial results of an empirical study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pier Luigi Baldi

2011-09-01

Full Text Available A brief survey of key literature on emotions and decision-making introduces an empirical study of a group of university students exploring the effects of decision-making complexity on error risk. The results clearly show that decision-making under stress in the experimental group produces significantly more errors than in the stress-free control group.

Real-World Evidence: Useful in the Real World of US Payer Decision Making? How? When? And What Studies?

Science.gov (United States)

Malone, Daniel C; Brown, Mary; Hurwitz, Jason T; Peters, Loretta; Graff, Jennifer S

2018-03-01

To examine how real-world evidence (RWE) is currently perceived and used in managed care environments, especially to inform pharmacy and therapeutic (P&T) committee decisions, to assess which study factors (e.g., data, design, and funding source) contribute to RWE utility in decisions, and to identify barriers to consideration of RWE studies in P&T decision making. We conducted focus groups/telephone-based interviews and surveys to understand perceptions of RWE and assess awareness, quality, and relevance of two high-profile examples of published RWE studies. A purposive sample comprised 4 physicians, 15 pharmacists, and 1 researcher representing 18 US health plans and health system organizations. Participants reported that RWE was generally used, or useful, to inform safety monitoring, utilization management, and cost analysis, but less so to guide P&T decisions. Participants were not aware of the two sample RWE studies but considered both studies to be valuable. Relevant research questions and outcomes, transparent methods, study quality, and timely results contribute to the utility of published RWE. Perceived organizational barriers to the use of published RWE included lack of skill, training, and timely study results. Payers recognize the value of RWE, but use of such studies to inform P&T decisions varies from organization to organization and is limited. Relevance to payers, timeliness, and transparent methods were key concerns with RWE. Participants recognized the need for continuing education on evaluating and using RWE to better understand the study methods, findings, and applicability to their organizations. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thinking about acting logical foundations for rational decision making

CERN Document Server

Pollock, John L

2006-01-01

John Pollock aims to construct a theory of rational decision making for real agents--not ideal agents. Real agents have limited cognitive powers, but traditional theories of rationality have applied only to idealized agents that lack such constraints. Pollock argues that theories of ideal rationality are largely irrelevant to the decision making of real agents. Thinking about Acting aims to provide a theory of ""real rationality.""

Operational and real-time Business Intelligence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Ioana SANDU

2008-01-01

Full Text Available A key component of a company’s IT framework is a business intelligence (BI system. BI enables business users to report on, analyze and optimize business operations to reduce costs and increase revenues. Organizations use BI for strategic and tactical decision making where the decision-making cycle may span a time period of several weeks (e.g., campaign management or months (e.g., improving customer satisfaction.Competitive pressures coming from a very dynamic business environment are forcing companies to react faster to changing business conditions and customer requirements. As a result, there is now a need to use BI to help drive and optimize business operations on a daily basis, and, in some cases, even for intraday decision making. This type of BI is usually called operational business intelligence and real-time business intelligence.

Disentangling the geography of finance and real estate: competing space-times of decision-making and uneven spatial development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabine Dörry

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The versatile ‘city building’ processes are in the focus of this issue. The author’s papers deal with a plurality of related issues such as the complexities of the increasing transparency of local property markets or the tight relations between city planners and (inter-national investors. As the built environment decides on a city’s economic prospect and determines future planning and development opportunities, the consequences of city building processes are multifaceted. Financial processes of urban (redevelopment, for example, are discussed at the cutting edge of a larger process of uneven development, which is rooted in the structure of the capitalist mode of production and fuels controversial debates on the ownership of the city. The current edition aims to attract further attention to the complex of financial matters and the production of the built environment with the intention to locate both more centrally within geography, planning, and economics. Against this background, this introduction spans the idea of the decision-making itself in financial and real estate markets, which can neither be limited to a singular moment nor be separated from the context in which they take place. Disentangling these market interdependencies and illustrating the context dependency of decision-making is a common theme in all of the papers included in this issue.

Development of a real-time clinical decision support system upon the Web MVC-based architecture for prostate cancer treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Chang, Chih-Hung; Li, Tsai-Chung; Liang, Wen-Miin; Wang, Jong-Yi Wang

2011-03-08

A real-time clinical decision support system (RTCDSS) with interactive diagrams enables clinicians to instantly and efficiently track patients' clinical records (PCRs) and improve their quality of clinical care. We propose a RTCDSS to process online clinical informatics from multiple databases for clinical decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer based on Web Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture, by which the system can easily be adapted to different diseases and applications. We designed a framework upon the Web MVC-based architecture in which the reusable and extractable models can be conveniently adapted to other hospital information systems and which allows for efficient database integration. Then, we determined the clinical variables of the prostate cancer treatment based on participating clinicians' opinions and developed a computational model to determine the pretreatment parameters. Furthermore, the components of the RTCDSS integrated PCRs and decision factors for real-time analysis to provide evidence-based diagrams upon the clinician-oriented interface for visualization of treatment guidance and health risk assessment. The resulting system can improve quality of clinical treatment by allowing clinicians to concurrently analyze and evaluate the clinical markers of prostate cancer patients with instantaneous clinical data and evidence-based diagrams which can automatically identify pretreatment parameters. Moreover, the proposed RTCDSS can aid interactions between patients and clinicians. Our proposed framework supports online clinical informatics, evaluates treatment risks, offers interactive guidance, and provides real-time reference for decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer. The developed clinician-oriented interface can assist clinicians in conveniently presenting evidence-based information to patients and can be readily adapted to an existing hospital information system and be easily applied in other chronic diseases.

Training Decision Makers for Complex Environments: Implications of the Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Canon-Bowers, Janis A; Bell, Herbert H

1997-01-01

Perhaps the most significant contribution of the Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) perspective is that it has forced researchers to reevaluate the assumptions they hold about how people make decisions in "real" environments...

Ethical decision making in organizations: the role of leadership stress

OpenAIRE

Selart, Marcus; Johansen, Svein Tvedt

2011-01-01

Across two studies the hypotheses were tested that stressful situations affect both leadership ethical acting and leaders’ recognition of ethical dilemmas. In the studies, decision makers recruited from 3 sites of a Swedish multinational civil engineering company provided personal data on stressful situations, made ethical decisions, and answered to stress-outcome questions. Stressful situations were observed to have a greater impact on ethical acting than on the recognition of ethical dil...

Stress effects on framed decisions: there are differences for gains and losses.

Science.gov (United States)

Pabst, Stephan; Brand, Matthias; Wolf, Oliver T

2013-01-01

Recent studies have shown that acute stress can lead to riskier decision making. Yet, the underlying mechanisms of the stress effects on decisions under risk remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of decision-making processes and potential strategy application under stress, we investigated decision making in pure gain and loss domains with unequal expected values (EVs) across alternatives. We conducted an experimental study with a 2 × 2 design (stress vs. no stress and gain domain vs. loss domain). The Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) was utilized to induce acute stress. Controls performed the placebo-TSST (p-TSST). To validate the stress response we measured salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase concentrations. We used a modified version of the Game of Dice Task (GDT) to assess decision-making performance in a gain and a loss domain. Results showed that non-stressed participants made less risky decisions in the gain domain compared to those of the loss domain. This behavior is in accordance with previous studies and indicates the stability of the framing effect in even more complex tasks with changing EVs across alternatives. Stress did not alter risk taking behavior in the gain domain. Yet, in the loss domain stressed participants made less risky decisions compared to controls. Additionally, the data support earlier findings of longer reaction times in loss compared to gain domains due to higher cognitive effort for loss-framed decisions. It is discussed that stress may lead to reduced amygdala activation, which has been found to reduce riskier decisions in a loss domain. With respect to earlier results of riskier decisions in tasks that unite both gain and loss domains, it is discussed whether stress leads to a stronger evaluation of high gains and a neglect of losses.

Development of real-time multitask OSS based on cognitive task analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang He; Cheng Shouyu

2010-01-01

A Real-time Multi-task Operator Support System (RMOSS) has been developed to support the operator's decision making process in the control room of NPP. VxWorks, one embedded real-time operation system, is used for RMOSS software development. According to the SRK modeling analysis result of the operator' decision making process, RMOSS is divided into five system subtasks, including Data Collection and Validation Task (DCVT), Operation Monitor Task (OMT), Fault Diagnostic Task (FDT), Operation Guideline Task (OGT) and Human Machine Interface Task (HMIT). The task test of RMOSS has been done in a real-time full scope simulator. The results showed that each task of RMOSS is capable of accomplishing their functions. (authors)

Medical Device Integrated Vital Signs Monitoring Application with Real-Time Clinical Decision Support.

Science.gov (United States)

Moqeem, Aasia; Baig, Mirza; Gholamhosseini, Hamid; Mirza, Farhaan; Lindén, Maria

2018-01-01

This research involves the design and development of a novel Android smartphone application for real-time vital signs monitoring and decision support. The proposed application integrates market available, wireless and Bluetooth connected medical devices for collecting vital signs. The medical device data collected by the app includes heart rate, oxygen saturation and electrocardiograph (ECG). The collated data is streamed/displayed on the smartphone in real-time. This application was designed by adopting six screens approach (6S) mobile development framework and focused on user-centered approach and considered clinicians-as-a-user. The clinical engagement, consultations, feedback and usability of the application in the everyday practices were considered critical from the initial phase of the design and development. Furthermore, the proposed application is capable to deliver rich clinical decision support in real-time using the integrated medical device data.

Handbook on Decision Making

CERN Document Server

Jain, Lakhmi C

2010-01-01

The present "Volume 1: Techniques and Applications" of the "Handbook on Decision Making" presents a useful collection of AI techniques, as well as other complementary methodologies, that are useful for the design and development of intelligent decision support systems. Application examples of how these intelligent decision support systems can be utilized to help tackle a variety of real-world problems in different domains, such as business, management, manufacturing, transportation and food industries, and biomedicine, are presented. The handbook includes twenty condensed c

Business making decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrique Benjamín Franklin Fincowsky

2011-06-01

Full Text Available People and organizations make better or get wrong as consequence of making decisions. Sometimes making decisions is just a trial and error process. Some others, decisions are good and the results profitable with a few of mistakes, most of the time because it’s considered the experience and the control of a specific field or the good intention of who makes them. Actually, all kinds of decisions bring learning. What is important is the intention, the attitude and the values considered in this process. People from different scenes face many facts and circumstances—almost always out of control—that affect the making decisions process. There is not a unique way to make decisions for all companies in many settings. The person who makes a decision should identify the problem, to solve it later using alternatives and solutions. Even though, follow all the steps it’s not easy as it seems. Looking back the conditions related to the decisions, we can mention the followings: uncertainty, risk and certainty. When people identify circumstances and facts, as well as its effects in a possible situation, they will make decisions with certainty. As long as the information decreases and it becomes ambiguous the risk becomes an important factor in the making decisions process because they are connected to probable objectives (clear or subjective (opinion judgment or intuition. To finish, uncertainty, involves people that make a decision with no or little information about circumstances or criteria with basis

An Exploration of Dual Systems via Time Pressure Manipulation in Decision-making Problems

OpenAIRE

Guo, Lisa

2017-01-01

Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness ...

Development of a real-time clinical decision support system upon the web mvc-based architecture for prostate cancer treatment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Wen-Miin

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A real-time clinical decision support system (RTCDSS with interactive diagrams enables clinicians to instantly and efficiently track patients' clinical records (PCRs and improve their quality of clinical care. We propose a RTCDSS to process online clinical informatics from multiple databases for clinical decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer based on Web Model-View-Controller (MVC architecture, by which the system can easily be adapted to different diseases and applications. Methods We designed a framework upon the Web MVC-based architecture in which the reusable and extractable models can be conveniently adapted to other hospital information systems and which allows for efficient database integration. Then, we determined the clinical variables of the prostate cancer treatment based on participating clinicians' opinions and developed a computational model to determine the pretreatment parameters. Furthermore, the components of the RTCDSS integrated PCRs and decision factors for real-time analysis to provide evidence-based diagrams upon the clinician-oriented interface for visualization of treatment guidance and health risk assessment. Results The resulting system can improve quality of clinical treatment by allowing clinicians to concurrently analyze and evaluate the clinical markers of prostate cancer patients with instantaneous clinical data and evidence-based diagrams which can automatically identify pretreatment parameters. Moreover, the proposed RTCDSS can aid interactions between patients and clinicians. Conclusions Our proposed framework supports online clinical informatics, evaluates treatment risks, offers interactive guidance, and provides real-time reference for decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer. The developed clinician-oriented interface can assist clinicians in conveniently presenting evidence-based information to patients and can be readily adapted to an existing hospital

DECISION-MAKING ALIGNED WITH RAPID-CYCLE EVALUATION IN HEALTH CARE.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Shrank, William H; Ruhl, Michael; Maclure, Malcolm

2015-01-01

Availability of real-time electronic healthcare data provides new opportunities for rapid-cycle evaluation (RCE) of health technologies, including healthcare delivery and payment programs. We aim to align decision-making processes with stages of RCE to optimize the usefulness and impact of rapid results. Rational decisions about program adoption depend on program effect size in relation to externalities, including implementation cost, sustainability, and likelihood of broad adoption. Drawing on case studies and experience from drug safety monitoring, we examine how decision makers have used scientific evidence on complex interventions in the past. We clarify how RCE alters the nature of policy decisions; develop the RAPID framework for synchronizing decision-maker activities with stages of RCE; and provide guidelines on evidence thresholds for incremental decision-making. In contrast to traditional evaluations, RCE provides early evidence on effectiveness and facilitates a stepped approach to decision making in expectation of future regularly updated evidence. RCE allows for identification of trends in adjusted effect size. It supports adapting a program in midstream in response to interim findings, or adapting the evaluation strategy to identify true improvements earlier. The 5-step RAPID approach that utilizes the cumulating evidence of program effectiveness over time could increase policy-makers' confidence in expediting decisions. RCE enables a step-wise approach to HTA decision-making, based on gradually emerging evidence, reducing delays in decision-making processes after traditional one-time evaluations.

The amygdala and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Rupa; Koscik, Timothy R; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel

2011-03-01

Decision-making is a complex process that requires the orchestration of multiple neural systems. For example, decision-making is believed to involve areas of the brain involved in emotion (e.g., amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex) and memory (e.g., hippocampus, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In this article, we will present findings related to the amygdala's role in decision-making, and differentiate the contributions of the amygdala from those of other structurally and functionally connected neural regions. Decades of research have shown that the amygdala is involved in associating a stimulus with its emotional value. This tradition has been extended in newer work, which has shown that the amygdala is especially important for decision-making, by triggering autonomic responses to emotional stimuli, including monetary reward and punishment. Patients with amygdala damage lack these autonomic responses to reward and punishment, and consequently, cannot utilize "somatic marker" type cues to guide future decision-making. Studies using laboratory decision-making tests have found deficient decision-making in patients with bilateral amygdala damage, which resembles their real-world difficulties with decision-making. Additionally, we have found evidence for an interaction between sex and laterality of amygdala functioning, such that unilateral damage to the right amygdala results in greater deficits in decision-making and social behavior in men, while left amygdala damage seems to be more detrimental for women. We have posited that the amygdala is part of an "impulsive," habit type system that triggers emotional responses to immediate outcomes. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision making in noisy bistable systems with time-dependent asymmetry

Science.gov (United States)

Nené, Nuno R.; Zaikin, Alexey

2013-01-01

Our work draws special attention to the importance of the effects of time-dependent parameters on decision making in bistable systems. Here, we extend previous studies of the mechanism known as speed-dependent cellular decision making in genetic circuits by performing an analytical treatment of the canonical supercritical pitchfork bifurcation problem with an additional time-dependent asymmetry and control parameter. This model has an analogous behavior to the genetic switch. In the presence of transient asymmetries and fluctuations, slow passage through the critical region in both systems increases substantially the probability of specific decision outcomes. We also study the relevance for attractor selection of reaching maximum values for the external asymmetry before and after the critical region. Overall, maximum asymmetries should be reached at an instant where the position of the critical point allows for compensation of the detrimental effects of noise in retaining memory of the transient asymmetries.

Relations between mental workload and decision-making in an organizational setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

María Soria-Oliver

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Asbtract Background The complexity of current organizations implies a potential overload for workers. For this reason, it is of interest to study the effects that mental workload has on the performance of complex tasks in professional settings. Objective The objective of this study is to empirically analyze the relation between the quality of decision-making, on the one hand, and the expected and real mental workload, on the other. Methods The study uses an ex post facto prospective design with a sample of 176 professionals from a higher education organization. Expected mental workload (Pre-Task WL and real mental workload (Post-Task WL were measured with the unweighted NASA-Task Load Index (NASA-TLX questionnaire; difference between real WL and expected WL (Differential WL was also calculated; quality of decision-making was measured by means of the Decision-Making Questionnaire. Results General quality of decision-making and Pre-Task WL relation is compatible with an inverted U pattern, with slight variations depending on the specific dimension of decision-making that is considered. There were no verifiable relations between Post-Task WL and decision-making. The subjects whose expected WL matched the real WL showed worse quality in decision-making than subjects with high or low Differential WL. Conclusions The relations between mental workload and decision-making reveal a complex pattern, with evidence of nonlinear relations.

Stress effects on framed decisions: there are differences for gains and losses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephan ePabst

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that acute stress can lead to riskier decision making. Yet, the underlying mechanisms of the stress effects on decisions under risk remain poorly understood. To gain a better understanding of decision-making processes and potential strategy application under stress, we investigated decision making in pure gain and loss domains with unequal expected values across alternatives. We conducted an experimental study with a 2 × 2 design (stress vs. no stress and gain domain vs. loss domain. The Trier Social Stress Test (TSST was utilized to induce acute stress. Controls performed the placebo-TSST. To validate the stress response we measured salivary cortisol and alpha amylase concentrations. We used a modified version of the Game of Dice Task (GDT to assess decision-making performance in a gain and a loss domain. Results showed that non-stressed participants of the gain domain decided less risky compared to those of the loss domain. This behavior is in accordance with previous studies and indicates the stability of the framing effect in even more complex tasks with changing expected values across alternatives. Stress did not alter risk taking behavior in the gain domain. Yet, in the loss domain stressed participants decided less risky compared to controls. Additionally, the data support earlier findings of longer reaction times in loss compared to gain domains due to higher cognitive effort for loss-framed decisions. It is discussed that stress may lead to reduced amygdala activation, which has been found to reduce riskier decisions in a loss domain. With respect to earlier results of riskier decisions in tasks that unite both gain and loss domains, it is discussed whether stress leads to a stronger evaluation of high gains and a neglect of losses.

Risk taking and adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A gap between real life behavior and experimental decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollak, Yehuda; Shalit, Reut; Aran, Adi

2018-01-01

Adults with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are prone to suboptimal decision making and risk taking. The aim of this study was to test performance on a theoretically-based probabilistic decision making task in well-characterized adults with and without ADHD, and examine the relation between experimental risk taking and history of real-life risk-taking behavior, defined as cigarette, alcohol, and street drug use. University students with and without ADHD completed a modified version of the Cambridge Gambling Test, in which they had to choose between alternatives varied by level of risk, and reported their history of substance use. Both groups showed similar patterns of risk taking on the experimental decision making task, suggesting that ADHD is not linked to low sensitivity to risk. Past and present substance use was more prevalent in adults with ADHD. These finding question the validity of experimental probabilistic decision making task as a valid model for ADHD-related risk-taking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision making as a window on cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Shadlen, Michael N; Kiani, Roozbeh

2013-10-30

A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on information and values associated with the possible outcomes. The process operates in a flexible timeframe that is free from the immediacy of evidence acquisition and the real time demands of action itself. Thus, it involves deliberation, planning, and strategizing. This Perspective focuses on perceptual decision making in nonhuman primates and the discovery of neural mechanisms that support accuracy, speed, and confidence in a decision. We suggest that these mechanisms expose principles of cognitive function in general, and we speculate about the challenges and directions before the field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Real-time vision systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, R.; Hernandez, J.E.; Lu, Shin-yee [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

1994-11-15

Many industrial and defence applications require an ability to make instantaneous decisions based on sensor input of a time varying process. Such systems are referred to as `real-time systems` because they process and act on data as it occurs in time. When a vision sensor is used in a real-time system, the processing demands can be quite substantial, with typical data rates of 10-20 million samples per second. A real-time Machine Vision Laboratory (MVL) was established in FY94 to extend our years of experience in developing computer vision algorithms to include the development and implementation of real-time vision systems. The laboratory is equipped with a variety of hardware components, including Datacube image acquisition and processing boards, a Sun workstation, and several different types of CCD cameras, including monochrome and color area cameras and analog and digital line-scan cameras. The equipment is reconfigurable for prototyping different applications. This facility has been used to support several programs at LLNL, including O Division`s Peacemaker and Deadeye Projects as well as the CRADA with the U.S. Textile Industry, CAFE (Computer Aided Fabric Inspection). To date, we have successfully demonstrated several real-time applications: bullet tracking, stereo tracking and ranging, and web inspection. This work has been documented in the ongoing development of a real-time software library.

Satisficing in split-second decision making is characterized by strategic cue discounting.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Hanna; Beck, Jeffrey M; Zhu, Pingping; Sommer, Marc A; Ferrari, Silvia; Egner, Tobias

2016-12-01

Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through satisficing, fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of information (cues) while ignoring others. However, the decision-making strategies we adopt under uncertainty and time pressure, for example during emergencies that demand split-second choices, are presently unknown. To characterize these decision strategies quantitatively, the present study examined how people solve a novel multicue probabilistic classification task under varying time pressure, by tracking shifts in decision strategies using variational Bayesian inference. We found that under low time pressure, participants correctly weighted and integrated all available cues to arrive at near-optimal decisions. With increasingly demanding, subsecond time pressures, however, participants systematically discounted a subset of the cue information by dropping the least informative cue(s) from their decision making process. Thus, the human cognitive apparatus copes with uncertainty and severe time pressure by adopting a "drop-the-worst" cue decision making strategy that minimizes cognitive time and effort investment while preserving the consideration of the most diagnostic cue information, thus maintaining "good-enough" accuracy. This advance in our understanding of satisficing strategies could form the basis of predicting human choices in high time pressure scenarios. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Wind Stress, METOP ASCAT, 0.25 degrees, Global, Near Real Time, Modulus

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA CoastWatch distributes near real time wind stress data in zonal, meridional, modulus, and wind stress curl sets. This data begins with wind velocity...

Wind Stress, METOP ASCAT, 0.25 degrees, Global, Near Real Time, Curl

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA CoastWatch distributes near real time wind stress data in zonal, meridional, modulus, and wind stress curl sets. This data begins with wind velocity...

Wind Stress, METOP ASCAT, 0.25 degrees, Global, Near Real Time, Meridional

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA CoastWatch distributes near real time wind stress data in zonal, meridional, modulus, and wind stress curl sets. This data begins with wind velocity...

Wind Stress, METOP ASCAT, 0.25 degrees, Global, Near Real Time, Zonal

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — NOAA CoastWatch distributes near real time wind stress data in zonal, meridional, modulus, and wind stress curl sets. This data begins with wind velocity...

Stress potentiates decision biases: A stress induced deliberation-to-intuition (SIDI model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rongjun Yu

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Humans often make decisions in stressful situations, for example when the stakes are high and the potential consequences severe, or when the clock is ticking and the task demand is overwhelming. In response, a whole train of biological responses to stress has evolved to allow organisms to make a fight-or-flight response. When under stress, fast and effortless heuristics may dominate over slow and demanding deliberation in making decisions under uncertainty. Here, I review evidence from behavioral studies and neuroimaging research on decision making under stress and propose that stress elicits a switch from an analytic reasoning system to intuitive processes, and predict that this switch is associated with diminished activity in the prefrontal executive control regions and exaggerated activity in subcortical reactive emotion brain areas. Previous studies have shown that when stressed, individuals tend to make more habitual responses than goal-directed choices, be less likely to adjust their initial judgment, and rely more on gut feelings in social situations. It is possible that stress influences the arbitration between the emotion responses in subcortical regions and deliberative processes in the prefrontal cortex, so that final decisions are based on unexamined innate responses. Future research may further test this ‘stress induced deliberation-to-intuition’ (SIDI model and examine its underlying neural mechanisms.

The Role of Intuition and Creativity in Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Wierzbicki, A.P.

1992-01-01

The paper starts with a reflection on various perceptions of rationality in decision making; by concentrating on so-called deliberative decision making and examining its analogy to cognitive processes, a case for including intuitive decisions into the concept of rational decision making is made. The role of "Gestalt" images and basic concepts in perceiving reality is stressed. Intuitive decision making is operationally defined and various phases of intuitive decision processes are examined. S...

Use of PRA in Shuttle Decision Making Process

Science.gov (United States)

Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri L.

2010-01-01

How do you use PRA to support an operating program? This presentation will explore how the Shuttle Program Management has used the Shuttle PRA in its decision making process. It will reveal how the PRA has evolved from a tool used to evaluate Shuttle upgrades like Electric Auxiliary Power Unit (EAPU) to a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and real-time flight decisions. Specific examples of Shuttle Program decisions that have used the Shuttle PRA as input will be provided including how it was used in the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) manifest decision. It will discuss the importance of providing management with a clear presentation of the analysis, applicable assumptions and limitations, along with estimates of the uncertainty. This presentation will show how the use of PRA by the Shuttle Program has evolved overtime and how it has been used in the decision making process providing specific examples.

The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de

2009-01-01

This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)

The decision-making process during accidents or incidents in the operational nuclear area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martins, Maria da Penha Sanches; Vanni, Silvia Regina Vanni [Centro Tecnologico da Marinha em Sao Paulo (CTMSP), SP (Brazil); Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], email: penhamartins@yahoo.com.br, e-mail: sjcvanni@yahoo.com.br; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mail: delvonei@ipen.br

2009-07-01

This study reflects on one of the human behavior mediating factors that face nuclear facility operators during their decision-making process. It includes some mental processes used to determine the best course of action, based on intuitive and creative decisions, within a specific set of rational conditions which depend much more on perception about threats than on theoretical knowledge. A fast and efficient decision, in an unstable and ongoing changing scenario/environment, is extremely complex. The decision-making process goes beyond the purely rational level and many times is influenced by intuition. The importance of the decision-making process leads the study to also review human factors. The methodology used in this paper is based on cognitive aspects which are focused essentially on studies such as: decision process models, decision types and human rationality limits (time) versus individual decisions. Lastly, it makes assessments on how reason, emotion and being under stress relate to the decision-making process (author)

Real-time information support for managing plant emergency responses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cain, D.G.; Lord, R.J.; Wilkinson, C.D.

1983-01-01

The Three Mile Island Unit 2 accident highlighted the need to develop a systematic approach to managing plant emergency responses, to identify a better decision-making process, and to implement real-time information support for decision-making. The overall process management function is described and general information requirements for management of plant emergencies are identified. Basic information systems are being incorporated and future extensions and problem areas are discussed. (U.K.)

Effects of shopping addiction on consumer decision-making: Web-based studies in real time.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Hui-Yi; Harvey, Nigel

2012-12-01

Background and aims Most research into compulsive buying has focused on its causes: questionnaires have been used to study its association with various factors assumed to be important in its etiology. Few studies have dealt with the effects of being a compulsive buyer on shopping decisions. Also, processes underlying compulsive buying are dynamic but questionnaires give access only to a retrospective view of them from the standpoint of the participant. The aim of the current study was to investigate the decision processes underlying compulsive buying. Methods Two simulated shopping experiments, each with over 100 participants, were used to compare the decision processes of compulsive shoppers with those of non-compulsive shoppers. This approach allowed us to measure many features of consumer decision-making that are relevant to compulsive shopping. Results Compulsive shoppers differed from general shoppers in six ways: choice characteristics, searching behavior, overspending, budget-consciousness, effects of credit card availability, and emotional responses to overspending. Conclusions Results are consistent with the view that compulsive buying, like other behavioral addictions, develops because the cognitive system under-predicts the extent of post-addiction craving produced by emotional and visceral processes.

Social anxiety, acute social stress, and reward parameters interact to predict risky decision-making among adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Jessica M; Patel, Nilam; Daniele-Zegarelli, Teresa; MacPherson, Laura; Lejuez, C W; Ernst, Monique

2015-01-01

Risk-taking behavior increases during adolescence, leading to potentially disastrous consequences. Social anxiety emerges in adolescence and may compound risk-taking propensity, particularly during stress and when reward potential is high. However, the manner in which social anxiety, stress, and reward parameters interact to impact adolescent risk-taking is unclear. To clarify this question, a community sample of 35 adolescents (15-18yo), characterized as having high or low social anxiety, participated in a study over two separate days, during each of which they were exposed to either a social stress or a control condition, while performing a risky decision-making task. The task manipulated, orthogonally, reward magnitude and probability across trials. Three findings emerged. First, reward magnitude had a greater impact on the rate of risky decisions in high social anxiety (HSA) than low social anxiety (LSA) adolescents. Second, reaction times (RTs) were similar during the social stress and the control conditions for the HSA group, whereas the LSA group's RTs differed between conditions. Third, HSA adolescents showed the longest RTs on the most negative trials. These findings suggest that risk-taking in adolescents is modulated by context and reward parameters differentially as a function of social anxiety. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Social Anxiety, Acute Social Stress, and Reward Parameters Interact to Predict Risky Decision-Making among Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Jessica M.; Patel, Nilam; Daniele, Teresa; MacPherson, Laura; Lejuez, C.W.; Ernst, Monique

2014-01-01

Risk-taking behavior increases during adolescence, leading to potentially disastrous consequences. Social anxiety emerges in adolescence and may compound risk-taking propensity, particularly during stress and when reward potential is high. However, the manner in which social anxiety, stress, and reward parameters interact to impact adolescent risk-taking is unclear. To clarify this question, a community sample of 35 adolescents (15 to 18 yo), characterized as having high or low social anxiety, participated in a 2-day study, during each of which they were exposed to either a social stress or a control condition, while performing a risky decision-making task. The task manipulated, orthogonally, reward magnitude and probability across trials. Three findings emerged. First, reward magnitude had a greater impact on the rate of risky decisions in high social anxiety (HSA) than low social anxiety (LSA) adolescents. Second, reaction times (RTs) were similar during the social stress and the control conditions for the HSA group, whereas the LSA group’s RTs differed between conditions. Third, HSA adolescents showed the longest RTs on the most negative trials. These findings suggest that risk-taking in adolescents is modulated by context and reward parameters differentially as a function of social anxiety. PMID:25465884

Quantum stochastic walks on networks for decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Martínez, Ismael; Sánchez-Burillo, Eduardo

2016-03-31

Recent experiments report violations of the classical law of total probability and incompatibility of certain mental representations when humans process and react to information. Evidence shows promise of a more general quantum theory providing a better explanation of the dynamics and structure of real decision-making processes than classical probability theory. Inspired by this, we show how the behavioral choice-probabilities can arise as the unique stationary distribution of quantum stochastic walkers on the classical network defined from Luce's response probabilities. This work is relevant because (i) we provide a very general framework integrating the positive characteristics of both quantum and classical approaches previously in confrontation, and (ii) we define a cognitive network which can be used to bring other connectivist approaches to decision-making into the quantum stochastic realm. We model the decision-maker as an open system in contact with her surrounding environment, and the time-length of the decision-making process reveals to be also a measure of the process' degree of interplay between the unitary and irreversible dynamics. Implementing quantum coherence on classical networks may be a door to better integrate human-like reasoning biases in stochastic models for decision-making.

Quantum stochastic walks on networks for decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Martínez, Ismael; Sánchez-Burillo, Eduardo

2016-03-01

Recent experiments report violations of the classical law of total probability and incompatibility of certain mental representations when humans process and react to information. Evidence shows promise of a more general quantum theory providing a better explanation of the dynamics and structure of real decision-making processes than classical probability theory. Inspired by this, we show how the behavioral choice-probabilities can arise as the unique stationary distribution of quantum stochastic walkers on the classical network defined from Luce’s response probabilities. This work is relevant because (i) we provide a very general framework integrating the positive characteristics of both quantum and classical approaches previously in confrontation, and (ii) we define a cognitive network which can be used to bring other connectivist approaches to decision-making into the quantum stochastic realm. We model the decision-maker as an open system in contact with her surrounding environment, and the time-length of the decision-making process reveals to be also a measure of the process’ degree of interplay between the unitary and irreversible dynamics. Implementing quantum coherence on classical networks may be a door to better integrate human-like reasoning biases in stochastic models for decision-making.

Decision making in high-velocity environments: implications for healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

Stepanovich, P L; Uhrig, J D

1999-01-01

Healthcare can be considered a high-velocity environment and, as such, can benefit from research conducted in other industries regarding strategic decision making. Strategic planning is not only relevant to firms in high-velocity environments, but is also important for high performance and survival. Specifically, decision-making speed seems to be instrumental in differentiating between high and low performers; fast decision makers outperform slow decision makers. This article outlines the differences between fast and slow decision makers, identifies five paralyses that can slow decision making in healthcare, and outlines the role of a planning department in circumventing these paralyses. Executives can use the proposed planning structure to improve both the speed and quality of strategic decisions. The structure uses planning facilitators to avoid the following five paralyses: 1. Analysis. Decision makers can no longer afford the luxury of lengthy, detailed analysis but must develop real-time systems that provide appropriate, timely information. 2. Alternatives. Many alternatives (beyond the traditional two or three) need to be considered and the alternatives must be evaluated simultaneously. 3. Group Think. Decision makers must avoid limited mind-sets and autocratic leadership styles by seeking out independent, knowledgeable counselors. 4. Process. Decision makers need to resolve conflicts through "consensus with qualification," as opposed to waiting for everyone to come on board. 5. Separation. Successful implementation requires a structured process that cuts across disciplines and levels.

Clinical decision making in veterinary practice

OpenAIRE

Everitt, Sally

2011-01-01

Aim The aim of this study is to develop an understanding of the factors which influence veterinary surgeons’ clinical decision making during routine consultations. Methods The research takes a qualitative approach using video-cued interviews, in which one of the veterinary surgeon’s own consultations is used as the basis of a semi-structured interview exploring decision making in real cases. The research focuses primarily on small animal consultations in first opinion practice, how...

Conversion Timing of Seafarer’s Decision-making for Unmanned Ship Navigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruolan Zhang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to construct an unmanned ship swarms monitoring model to improve autonomous decision-making efficiency and safety performance of unmanned ship navigation. A framework is proposed to determine the relationship between on-board decision-making and shore side monitoring, the process of ship data detection, tracking, analysis and loss, and the application of decision-making algorithm, to discuss the different risk responses of specific unmanned ship types under various latent hazard environments, particularly in terms of precise conversion timing in switching over to remote control and full manual monitoring, to ensure safe navigation when the capability of automatic risk response inadequate. This frame-work makes it easier to train data and the adjustment for machine learning based on Bayesian risk prediction. It can be concluded that the automation level can be increased and the workload of shore-based seafarers can be reduced easily.

Decision Making in Action

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

Decision making uncertainty, imperfection, deliberation and scalability

CERN Document Server

Kárný, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

2015-01-01

This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selfish decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efficiently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized...

Effects of stress on decisions under uncertainty: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Starcke, Katrin; Brand, Matthias

2016-09-01

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 142(9) of Psychological Bulletin (see record 2016-39486-001). It should have been reported that the inverted u-shaped relationship between cortisol stress responses and decision-making performance was only observed in female, but not in male participants as suggested by the study by van den Bos, Harteveld, and Stoop (2009). Corrected versions of the affected sentences are provided.] The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to quantify the effects that stress has on decisions made under uncertainty. We hypothesized that stress increases reward seeking and risk taking through alterations of dopamine firing rates and reduces executive control by hindering optimal prefrontal cortex functioning. In certain decision situations, increased reward seeking and risk taking is dysfunctional, whereas in others, this is not the case. We also assumed that the type of stressor plays a role. In addition, moderating variables are analyzed, such as the hormonal stress response, the time between stress onset and decisions, and the participants' age and gender. We included studies in the meta-analysis that investigated decision making after a laboratory stress-induction versus a control condition (k = 32 datasets, N = 1829 participants). A random-effects model revealed that overall, stress conditions lead to decisions that can be described as more disadvantageous, more reward seeking, and more risk taking than nonstress conditions (d = .17). In those situations in which increased reward seeking and risk taking is disadvantageous, stress had significant effects (d = .26), whereas in other situations, no effects were observed (d = .01). Effects were observed under processive stressors (d = .19), but not under systemic ones (d = .09). Moderation analyses did not reveal any significant results. We concluded that stress deteriorates overall decision-making performance through the mechanisms proposed. The effects differ

Roles of Time Hazard in Perceptual Decision Making under High Time Pressure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minju Kim

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The drift diffusion model (DDM has been successful in capturing the joint dynamics of accuracy and latency data in various perceptual decision making tasks. We evaluated how well the DDM describes dynamics of perceptual decision when subjects were under a varying degree of time pressure. We collected choice and latency responses from human subjects, who discriminated the size of a thin ring stimulus with a varying degree of uncertainty. The degree of time pressure was manipulated both by giving subjects an explicit instruction of different time limits across sessions (0.7 ∼ 1.2 s and by providing feedback to responses that were made later than those time limits. When fitted to the data of choice and latency, the three major variants of the DDM (with static bounds & gain, with time-varying bounds, and with time-varying gain showed a systematic pattern of latency-dependent prediction errors. Here we propose a new variant of the DDM, which adopts a ‘boundary for time hazard’ on the time axis in addition to the choice boundary on the choice-evidence axis in decision space. Our model did not exhibit the biased pattern of errors and was superior than the other models in goodness of fit to the data.

Tactical Decision Making under Categorical Uncertainty with Applications to Modeling and Simulation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kemmerer, Kacey E

2008-01-01

...) and individual differences affect response time in decision-making tasks. The researchers elicited real-world tactical scenarios from veterans of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom in which uncertainty was present...

Decision making by patients: An application of naturalistic decision making theory to cervical screening and chronic renal failure, Working Paper 2006/5

OpenAIRE

Marion Haas

2006-01-01

Over their lifetime, individuals typically make many decisions about health and health care. Theoretical approaches to decision making have been dominated by a rational, analytic approach which assumes that problems are relatively fixed and well-defined and which have foreseeable and measurable endpoints. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) approaches attempt to mimic ?real world? situations where problems vary, may be defined differently by individuals with diverse perspectives and where endp...

Online gaming for learning optimal team strategies in real time

Science.gov (United States)

Hudas, Gregory; Lewis, F. L.; Vamvoudakis, K. G.

2010-04-01

This paper first presents an overall view for dynamical decision-making in teams, both cooperative and competitive. Strategies for team decision problems, including optimal control, zero-sum 2-player games (H-infinity control) and so on are normally solved for off-line by solving associated matrix equations such as the Riccati equation. However, using that approach, players cannot change their objectives online in real time without calling for a completely new off-line solution for the new strategies. Therefore, in this paper we give a method for learning optimal team strategies online in real time as team dynamical play unfolds. In the linear quadratic regulator case, for instance, the method learns the Riccati equation solution online without ever solving the Riccati equation. This allows for truly dynamical team decisions where objective functions can change in real time and the system dynamics can be time-varying.

Naturalistic decision making in forensic science: toward a better understanding of decision making by forensic team leaders.

Science.gov (United States)

Helsloot, Ira; Groenendaal, Jelle

2011-07-01

This study uses the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) perspective to examine how Dutch forensic team leaders (i.e., the officers in charge of criminal forensic research from the crime scene until the use of laboratory assistance) make decisions in real-life settings and identifies the contextual factors that might influence those decisions. First, a focus group interview was conducted to identify four NDM mechanisms in day-to-day forensic decision making. Second, a serious game was conducted to examine the influence of three of these contextual mechanisms. The results uncovered that forensic team leaders (i) were attracted to obtain further information when more information was initially made available, (ii) were likely to devote more attention to emotionally charged cases, and (iii) used not only forensic evidence in the decision making but also tactical, unverified information of the police inquiry. Interestingly, the measured contextual influences did not deviate significantly from a control group of laypeople. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Development of an Automated Decision-Making Tool for Supervisory Control System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Muhlheim, Michael David [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Flanagan, George F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kisner, Roger A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2014-09-01

This technical report was generated as a product of the Supervisory Control for Multi-Modular Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Plants project within the Instrumentation, Control and Human-Machine Interface technology area under the Advanced Small Modular Reactor (AdvSMR) Research and Development Program of the US Department of Energy. The report documents the definition of strategies, functional elements, and the structural architecture of a supervisory control system for multi-modular AdvSMR plants. This research activity advances the state of the art by incorporating real-time, probabilistic-based decision-making into the supervisory control system architectural layers through the introduction of a tiered-plant system approach. The report provides background information on the state of the art of automated decision-making, including the description of existing methodologies. It then presents a description of a generalized decision-making framework, upon which the supervisory control decision-making algorithm is based. The probabilistic portion of automated decision-making is demonstrated through a simple hydraulic loop example.

A Novel Method for Dynamic Multicriteria Decision Making with Hybrid Evaluation Information

OpenAIRE

Shihu Liu; Tauqir Ahmed Moughal

2014-01-01

How to select the most desirable pattern(s) is often a crucial step for decision making problem. By taking uncertainty as well as dynamic of database into consideration, in this paper, we construct a dynamic multicriteria decision making procedure, where the evaluation information of criteria is expressed by real number, intuitionistic fuzzy number, and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number. During the process of algorithm construction, the evaluation information at all time episodes is...

Decision-making experiments and real-world choice behaviour

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Timmermans, H.J.P.; vd Heijden, R.E.C.M.; Westerveld, J.

1984-01-01

This article is concerned with the analysis of consumer spatial choice behaviour using conjoint measurements. The study's objectives are to assess the appropriateness of conjoint measurement to represent a consumer's spatial decision making process, to identify the nature of aggregate utility

GM ethical decision making in practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Donald Bruce

2002-09-01

Full Text Available Celia Deane-Drummond's case for wisdom as an approach to ethical decision making and her doubts about case-oriented methodology are critiqued with reference to the SRT Project's Engineering Genesis study. Its approach is explored in practical decisions on various real life examples of genetic modification in crops and animals. It involved both intrinsic and consequential approaches, and identified key value positions behind different policies and stakeholders. The paper also clarifies the relationship between reactive (cost-benefit and precautionary risk assessment, explaining their strengths and limitations, and the role of underlying values in both forms of risk decision making.

The Effects of Stress and Executive Functions on Decision Making in an Executive Parallel Task

OpenAIRE

McGuigan, Brian

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of acute stress on parallel task performance with the Game of Dice Task (GDT) to measure decision making and the Stroop test.  Two previous studies have found that the combination of stress and a parallel task with the GDT and an executive functions task preserved performance on the GDT for a stress group compared to a control group.  The purpose of this study was to create and use a new parallel task with the GDT and the stroop test to elu...

Braille Telecaptioning: Making Real-Time Television Accessible to Deaf-Blind Consumers.

Science.gov (United States)

Biederman-Anderson, L.

1989-01-01

A federal grant has been awarded to develop and test a prototype device to make closed-captioned television available to deaf-blind people. The Braille TeleCaption System, with output available in braille and large print, is currently being tested. Such new technology makes real-time viewing of news, weather, and entertainment accessible to…

Real-Time Analysis of a Sensor's Data for Automated Decision Making in an IoT-Based Smart Home.

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Nida Saddaf; Ghani, Sayeed; Haider, Sajjad

2018-05-25

IoT devices frequently generate large volumes of streaming data and in order to take advantage of this data, their temporal patterns must be learned and identified. Streaming data analysis has become popular after being successfully used in many applications including forecasting electricity load, stock market prices, weather conditions, etc. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been successfully utilized in understanding the embedded interesting patterns/behaviors in the data and forecasting the future values based on it. One such pattern is modelled and learned in the present study to identify the occurrence of a specific pattern in a Water Management System (WMS). This prediction aids in making an automatic decision support system, to switch OFF a hydraulic suction pump at the appropriate time. Three types of ANN, namely Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO), Multi-Input Single-Output (MISO), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) have been compared, for multi-step-ahead forecasting, on a sensor's streaming data. Experiments have shown that RNN has the best performance among three models and based on its prediction, a system can be implemented to make the best decision with 86% accuracy.

Enhanced least squares Monte Carlo method for real-time decision optimizations for evolving natural hazards

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anders, Annett; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

The present paper aims at enhancing a solution approach proposed by Anders & Nishijima (2011) to real-time decision problems in civil engineering. The approach takes basis in the Least Squares Monte Carlo method (LSM) originally proposed by Longstaff & Schwartz (2001) for computing American option...... prices. In Anders & Nishijima (2011) the LSM is adapted for a real-time operational decision problem; however it is found that further improvement is required in regard to the computational efficiency, in order to facilitate it for practice. This is the focus in the present paper. The idea behind...... the improvement of the computational efficiency is to “best utilize” the least squares method; i.e. least squares method is applied for estimating the expected utility for terminal decisions, conditional on realizations of underlying random phenomena at respective times in a parametric way. The implementation...

Advances in fuzzy decision making theory and practice

CERN Document Server

Skalna, Iwona; Gaweł, Bartłomiej; Basiura, Beata; Duda, Jerzy; Opiła, Janusz; Pełech-Pilichowski, Tomasz

2015-01-01

This book shows how common operation management methods and algorithms can be extended to deal with vague or imprecise information in decision-making problems. It describes how to combine decision trees, clustering, multi-attribute decision-making algorithms and Monte Carlo Simulation with the mathematical description of imprecise or vague information, and how to visualize such information. Moreover, it discusses a broad spectrum of real-life management problems including forecasting the apparent consumption of steel products, planning and scheduling of production processes, project portfolio selection and economic-risk estimation. It is a concise, yet comprehensive, reference source for researchers in decision-making and decision-makers in business organizations alike.

Human aspects in software architecture decision making : a literature review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tang, A.; Razavian, M.; Paech, Barbara; Hesse, T.M.

2017-01-01

Despite past efforts, we have little understanding and limited research efforts on how architects make decisions in the real-world settings. It seems that software architecture researchers make implicit assumption that decision making by software architects can be a rational and prescribed process.

Decision-making and emotions in the contested information environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.W. Haas

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Future conflicts will necessitate the ability to conduct effective military operations in a contested information environment. The building and maintaining of robust situational awareness, protection of decision-making effectiveness of individuals and teams, fighting through information attacks from both in, and through, the cyberspace domain, will be essential. Increasing the knowledge of the mechanisms involved in degrading task performance and decision-making during cyber attacks will enable the development of advanced human-centered defensive techniques that aid fight-through capability. In this position paper, the development and evaluation of software that simulates real-time and persistent manipulation of the information environment is discussed. Results of the evaluation indicated that the task performance of a team of decision-makers performing collaborative tasks could be degraded through real-time manipulation of cyberspace content and operation. The paper concludes with a discussion of focus and direction for future research and development. It is suggested that the building of a deeper understanding of the perceptual and cognitive factors that are significant in the relationship between information environment manipulation and reduction in task performance is required. This understanding will aid in the defence of cyberspace attacks, will aid in fight through and mission assurance, and will aid the Information Operations community.

Operation and safety decision-making support expert system in NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei Yanhui; Su Desong; Chen Weihua; Zhang Jianbo

2014-01-01

The article first reviewed three operation support systems currently used in NPP: real-time information surveillance system, important equipment surveillance system and plant process control and monitoring system, then presents the structure and function of three expert support sub-systems (intelligent alarm monitoring system, computer-based operating procedure support system, safety information expert decision support system). Finally the article discussed the meaning of a kind of operation decision making support system. (authors)

Decision Making in the Airplane

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

Decision making and imperfection

CERN Document Server

Karny, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

2013-01-01

Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process.   The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider:   ·          how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions;   ·          how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available;   ...

Near Real-Time MOPITT Data - Its Architecture, Obstacles Overcome, and Strategic Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Ziskin, D.; Mao, D.; Worden, H. M.; Deeter, M. N.; D'Attilo, G.; Fredrick, T.; Martinez-Alonso, S.; Francis, G.; Drews, C.

2017-12-01

Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) is an instrument that has been flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite and collecting CO data since March 2000. The standard MOPITT product uses ancillary data that can delay its production by several weeks. Furthermore, final processing does not occur until after the annual calibration event, creating a lag of up to a year. In contrast, MOPITT produces a Near Real-Time (NRT) product available through the Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) interface with a latency of less than three hours. This presentation details the architecture of the system, obstacles overcome, and strategic decisions made in order become a LANCE node.

Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew M Parker

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making.

Real-time sun protection decisions in first-degree relatives of melanoma patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Hay, Jennifer L; Shuk, Elyse; Schofield, Elizabeth; Loeb, Rebecca; Holland, Susan; Burkhalter, Jack; Li, Yuelin

2017-09-01

Melanoma is the most serious skin cancer, and consistent use of sun protection is recommended to reduce risk. Yet sun protection use is generally inconsistent. Understanding the decisional factors driving sun protection choices could aid in intervention development to promote sun protection maintenance. In 59 first-degree relatives of melanoma patients, an interactive voice response system (IVRS) on participants' cell phones was used to assess twice daily (morning, afternoon) real-time sun protection usage (sunscreen, shade, hats, protective clothing) and decision factors (weather, type of activity, convenience, social support) over a 14-day summer interval where morning and afternoon outdoor exposures were anticipated. Generalized estimating equations and hierarchical linear models were used to examine the effect of demographics and decisional factors on sun protection choices over time. Sun protection use was inconsistent (e.g., 61% used sunscreen inconsistently). Most strategies were used independently, with the exception of moderate overlap of sunscreen and hat usage. Decision factors were highly relevant for sun protection. For instance, sunscreen use was related to the perception of having adequate time to apply it, whereas shade and hat usage were each related to convenience. Few findings emerged by gender, age, time of day, or year. Significant within-subject variation remained, however. The findings support continued examination of decision factors in understanding sun protection consistency in real time. Interventions where cues to action and environmental supports work together in varied settings can be developed to improve sun protection maintenance in populations at risk for this common disease. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Hospice decision making: diagnosis makes a difference.

Science.gov (United States)

Waldrop, Deborah P; Meeker, Mary Ann

2012-10-01

This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 hospice patients and 55 caregivers after 2 weeks of hospice care. The study was guided by Janis and Mann's conflict theory model (CTM) of decision making. Qualitative data analysis involved a directed content analysis using concepts from the CTM. A model of hospice enrollment decision making is presented. Concepts from the CTM (appraisal, surveying and weighing the alternatives, deliberations, adherence) were used as an organizing framework to illustrate the dynamics. Distinct differences were found by diagnosis (cancer vs. other chronic illness, e.g., heart and lung diseases) during the pre-encounter phase or before the hospice referral but no differences emerged during the post-encounter phase. Differences in decision making by diagnosis suggest the need for research about effective means for tailored communication in end-of-life decision making by type of illness. Recognition that decision making about hospice admission varies is important for clinicians who aim to provide person-centered and family-focused care.

Nuclear regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

The fundamental objective of all nuclear safety regulatory bodies is to ensure that nuclear utilities operate their plants at all times in an acceptably safe manner. In meeting this objective, the regulatory body should strive to ensure that its regulatory decisions are technically sound, consistent from case to case, and timely. In addition, the regulator must be aware that its decisions and the circumstances surrounding those decisions can affect how its stakeholders, such as government policy makers, the industry it regulates, and the public, view it as an effective and credible regulator. In order to maintain the confidence of those stakeholders, the regulator should make sure that its decisions are transparent, have a clear basis in law and regulations, and are seen by impartial observers to be fair to all parties. Based on the work of a Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) expert group, this report discusses some of the basic principles and criteria that a regulatory body should consider in making decisions and describes the elements of an integrated framework for regulatory decision making. (author)

Neuroanatomical basis for recognition primed decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Darren

2013-01-01

Effective decision making under time constraints is often overlooked in medical decision making. The recognition primed decision making (RPDM) model was developed by Gary Klein based on previous recognized situations to develop a satisfactory solution to the current problem. Bayes Theorem is the most popular decision making model in medicine but is limited by the need for adequate time to consider all probabilities. Unlike other decision making models, there is a potential neurobiological basis for RPDM. This model has significant implication for health informatics and medical education.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

An Exploration of Dual Systems via Time Pressure Manipulation in Decision-making Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Lisa

Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness of its definition, and claim that single-process accounts can explain the data just as well. My aim is to elucidate the cognitive processes that underlie decisions which involve some level of risk through the experimental manipulation of time pressure. Using this method, I hope to distinguish between competing hypotheses related to the origin of the effect. I will explore three types of decisions that illustrate these concepts: risky decision-making involving gambles, intertemporal choice, and one-shot public goods games involving social cooperation. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed as either gains or losses; decided upon intertemporal choices for smaller but sooner rewards or larger but later rewards; and played a one-shot public goods game involving social cooperation and contributing an amount of money to a group. In each case, we experimentally manipulated time pressure, either within subjects or among individuals. Results showed under time pressure, increased framing effects under in both hypothetical and incentivized choices; and greater contributions and cooperation among individuals, lending support to the dual process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system. However, our intertemporal choice experiment showed that time constraints led to increased selection of the larger but later options, which suggests that the magnitude of the reward may play larger role in choice selection under cognitive load than

Review of real-time on-line decision support system RODOS; RODOS-ohjelman arviointi

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rossi, J. [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland). Nuclear Energy

1997-01-01

RODOS (Real Time Off-site Decision Support System) is a research project, which aims at the development of a versatile decision support system for management of reactor accident off-site consequence assessments in real-time in Europe and in the western parts of the former Soviet Union. The system employs both local and regional environmental radiation monitoring results and meteorological forecasts by means of which the software prepares consistent predictions ranging from the release area to long distances covering all temporal phases of the accident. The data to be obtained from the environment will be processed and based on the mathematical and physical models and it will be prepared to intelligibly form about the prevalent or future environmental radiation situation. The software is intended for operative use of radiation safety authorities. Furthermore, the software is suitable for education and training of rescue field personnel. (refs.).

Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

OpenAIRE

Maite Sara Mashego

2015-01-01

Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

Decision making regarding multifetal reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Maifeld, Michelle; Hahn, Sandra; Titler, Marita G; Mullen, Meredithe

2003-01-01

To identify salient variables that influence decision making regarding multifetal reduction (MFR) and describe their effect on individuals over time. Prospective, exploratory, descriptive design, using qualitative and quantitative methods. Midwestern tertiary care center. A convenience sample of 11 consecutive consenting couples with triplet or higher-order pregnancies who elected to undergo MFR. Semistructured audiotaped telephone interviews at three points: (a) 2 weeks postreduction, (b) 6 weeks postpartum, and (c) 6 months postpartum; a demographic and marital adjustment questionnaire. Themes identified by content analysis and compared via matrix analysis between males and females and at three points in time; trends in marital adjustment. Dominant variables influencing MFR decision making were risks associated with higher-order pregnancies and preservation of infants' and mothers' health. Most participants identified emotional issues, including moral and ethical dilemmas, as the most difficult aspect of reduction. Over time, participants reported feeling more positive about their decision; nonetheless, negative feelings emerged progressively. Risk aversion favored MFR decision making. Yet, both making and living with the decision were emotionally difficult for this sample. Interventions are needed to assist couples with this decision and its consequences.

The involvement of the striatum in decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Goulet-Kennedy, Julie; Labbe, Sara; Fecteau, Shirley

2016-01-01

Decision making has been extensively studied in the context of economics and from a group perspective, but still little is known on individual decision making. Here we discuss the different cognitive processes involved in decision making and its associated neural substrates. The putative conductors in decision making appear to be the prefrontal cortex and the striatum. Impaired decision-making skills in various clinical populations have been associated with activity in the prefrontal cortex and in the striatum. We highlight the importance of strengthening the degree of integration of both cognitive and neural substrates in order to further our understanding of decision-making skills. In terms of cognitive paradigms, there is a need to improve the ecological value of experimental tasks that assess decision making in various contexts and with rewards; this would help translate laboratory learnings into real-life benefits. In terms of neural substrates, the use of neuroimaging techniques helps characterize the neural networks associated with decision making; more recently, ways to modulate brain activity, such as in the prefrontal cortex and connected regions (eg, striatum), with noninvasive brain stimulation have also shed light on the neural and cognitive substrates of decision making. Together, these cognitive and neural approaches might be useful for patients with impaired decision-making skills. The drive behind this line of work is that decision-making abilities underlie important aspects of wellness, health, security, and financial and social choices in our daily lives. PMID:27069380

The Role of Future Time Perspective in Career Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Terrance L.; Tracey, Terence J. G.

2012-01-01

The present study of two hundred and seven university students examined the structural relation of future-orientation (both valence and instrumentality), career decision-making self-efficacy and career indecision (choice/commitment anxiety and lack of readiness) in a sample of 218 college students. Future time perspective was viewed as a key input…

Ignorance- versus evidence-based decision making: a decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilbig, Benjamin E; Pohl, Rüdiger F

2009-09-01

According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of evidence speaking for each of the objects and that decision times thus depend on the evidential difference between objects, or the degree of conflict between options. This article presents 3 experiments that tested predictions derived from the RH against those from alternative models. All experiments used naturally recognized objects without teaching participants any information and thus provided optimal conditions for application of the RH. However, results supported the alternative, evidence-based models and often conflicted with the RH. Recognition was not the key determinant of decision times, whereas differences between objects with respect to (both positive and negative) evidence predicted effects well. In sum, alternative models that allow for the integration of different pieces of information may well provide a better account of comparative judgments. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Decision making in a multidisciplinary cancer team: does team discussion result in better quality decisions?

Science.gov (United States)

Kee, Frank; Owen, Tracy; Leathem, Ruth

2004-01-01

To establish whether treatment recommendations made by clinicians concur with the best outcomes predicted from their prognostic estimates and whether team discussion improves the quality or outcome of their decision making, the authors studied real-time decision making by a lung cancer team. Clinicians completed pre- and postdiscussion questionnaires for 50 newly diagnosed patients. For each patient/doctor pairing, a decision model determined the expected patient outcomes from the clinician's prognostic estimates. The difference between the expected utility of the recommended treatment and the maximum utility derived from the clinician's predictions of the outcomes (the net utility loss) following all potential treatment modalities was calculated as an indicator of quality of the decision. The proportion of treatment decisions changed by the multidisciplinary team discussion was also calculated. Insofar as the change in net utility loss brought about by multidisciplinary team discussion was not significantly different from zero, team discussion did not improve the quality of decision making overall. However, given the modest power of the study, these findings must be interpreted with caution. In only 23 of 87 instances (26%) in which an individual specialist's initial treatment preference differed from the final group judgment did the specialist finally concur with the group treatment choice after discussion. This study does not support the theory that team discussion improves decision making by closing a knowledge gap.

Has patients' involvement in the decision-making process changed over time?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brink-Muinen, A. van den; Dulmen, A.M. van; Haes, H.C.J.M. de; Visser, A.P.; Schellevis, F.G.; Bensing, J.M.

2006-01-01

Objective: To get insight into the changes over time of patients' involvement in the decision-making process, and into the factors contributing to patients' involvement and general practitioners' (GPs) communication related to the Medical Treatment Act (MTA) Issues: information about treatment,

Has patients’ involvement in the decision-making process changed over time?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brink-Muinen, A. van den; Dulmen, S.M. van; Haes, H.C.J.M. de; Visser, A.P.; Schellevis, F.G.; Bensing, J.

2006-01-01

Objective To get insight into the changes over time of patients’ involvement in the decision-making process, and into the factors contributing to patients’ involvement and general practitioners’ (GPs) communication related to the Medical Treatment Act (MTA) issues: information about treatment,

Real-Time Analysis of a Sensor’s Data for Automated Decision Making in an IoT-Based Smart Home

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nida Saddaf Khan

2018-05-01

Full Text Available IoT devices frequently generate large volumes of streaming data and in order to take advantage of this data, their temporal patterns must be learned and identified. Streaming data analysis has become popular after being successfully used in many applications including forecasting electricity load, stock market prices, weather conditions, etc. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs have been successfully utilized in understanding the embedded interesting patterns/behaviors in the data and forecasting the future values based on it. One such pattern is modelled and learned in the present study to identify the occurrence of a specific pattern in a Water Management System (WMS. This prediction aids in making an automatic decision support system, to switch OFF a hydraulic suction pump at the appropriate time. Three types of ANN, namely Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO, Multi-Input Single-Output (MISO, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN have been compared, for multi-step-ahead forecasting, on a sensor’s streaming data. Experiments have shown that RNN has the best performance among three models and based on its prediction, a system can be implemented to make the best decision with 86% accuracy.

Decision-Making and the Iowa Gambling Task: Ecological validity in individuals with substance dependence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Verdejo-Garcia

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Substance Dependent Individuals (SDIs usually show deficits in real-life decision-making, as illustrated by their persistence in drug use despite a rise in undesirable consequences. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT is an instrument that factors a number of aspects of real-life decision-making. Although most SDIs are impaired on the IGT, there is a subgroup of them who perform normally on this task. One possible explanation for this differential performance is that impairment in decision-making is largely detected on the IGT when the use of drugs escalates in the face of rising adverse consequences. The aim of this study is to test this hypothesis, by examining if several real-life indices associated with escalation of addiction severity (as measured by the Addiction Severity Index -ASI- are predictive of risky decisions, as revealed by impaired performance on different versions of the IGT. We administered the ASI and different versions of the IGT (the main IGT version, a variant IGT version, and two parallel versions of each to a large sample of SDI. We used regression models to examine the predictive effects of the seven real-life domains assessed by the ASI on decision-making performance as measured by the IGT. We included in regression models both ASI-derived objective and subjective measures of each problem domain. Results showed (i that several aspects of real-life functioning associated with addiction severity were moderate predictors of IGT decision-making performance; (ii that the combined assessment of decision-making using different versions of the IGT yielded better predictive measures than assessment using isolated versions of the IGT; and (iii that objective measures of real-life functioning were better predictors of decision-making performance on the IGT than subjective measures based on SDI's insight about their problems. These results support the notion that decision-making deficits as measured by the IGT are associated with a rise in

Multi-level decision making models, methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Zhang, Guangquan; Gao, Ya

2015-01-01

This monograph presents new developments in multi-level decision-making theory, technique and method in both modeling and solution issues. It especially presents how a decision support system can support managers in reaching a solution to a multi-level decision problem in practice. This monograph combines decision theories, methods, algorithms and applications effectively. It discusses in detail the models and solution algorithms of each issue of bi-level and tri-level decision-making, such as multi-leaders, multi-followers, multi-objectives, rule-set-based, and fuzzy parameters. Potential readers include organizational managers and practicing professionals, who can use the methods and software provided to solve their real decision problems; PhD students and researchers in the areas of bi-level and multi-level decision-making and decision support systems; students at an advanced undergraduate, master’s level in information systems, business administration, or the application of computer science.  

Defining decision making: a qualitative study of international experts' views on surgical trainee decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Rennie, Sarah C; van Rij, Andre M; Jaye, Chrystal; Hall, Katherine H

2011-06-01

Decision making is a key competency of surgeons; however, how best to assess decisions and decision makers is not clearly established. The aim of the present study was to identify criteria that inform judgments about surgical trainees' decision-making skills. A qualitative free text web-based survey was distributed to recognized international experts in Surgery, Medical Education, and Cognitive Research. Half the participants were asked to identify features of good decisions, characteristics of good decision makers, and essential factors for developing good decision-making skills. The other half were asked to consider these areas in relation to poor decision making. Template analysis of free text responses was performed. Twenty-nine (52%) experts responded to the survey, identifying 13 categories for judging a decision and 14 for judging a decision maker. Twelve features/characteristics overlapped (considered, informed, well timed, aware of limitations, communicated, knowledgeable, collaborative, patient-focused, flexible, able to act on the decision, evidence-based, and coherent). Fifteen categories were generated for essential factors leading to development of decision-making skills that fall into three major themes (personal qualities, training, and culture). The categories compiled from the perspectives of good/poor were predominantly the inverse of each other; however, the weighting given to some categories varied. This study provides criteria described by experts when considering surgical decisions, decision makers, and development of decision-making skills. It proposes a working definition of a good decision maker. Understanding these criteria will enable clinical teachers to better recognize and encourage good decision-making skills and identify poor decision-making skills for remediation.

Principles of shared decision-making within teams.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Wernovsky, Gil; Cooper, David S; Karl, Tom R

2015-12-01

does not matter, so do whatever you desire!" • SDM Level 2 Decision: "We disagree and I believe it matters, but I am OK if you do whatever you desire!!" • SDM Level 3 Decision: "We disagree and I must insist (diplomatically and politely) that we follow the strategy that I am proposing!!!!!!" SDM Level 1 Decisions and SDM Level 2 Decisions typically do not create stress on the team, especially when there is mutual purpose and respect among the members of the team. SDM Level 3 Decisions are the real challenge. Periodically, the healthcare team is faced with such Level 3 Decisions, and teamwork and shared decision-making may be challenged. Teamwork is a learned behaviour, and mentorship is critical to achieve a properly balanced approach. If we agree to leave our egos at the door, then, in the final analysis, the team will benefit and we will set the stage for optimal patient care. In the environment of strong disagreement, true teamwork and shared decision-making are critical to preserve the unity and strength of the multi-disciplinary team and simultaneously provide excellent healthcare.

Complex Decision Making Theory and Practice

CERN Document Server

Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan; Spector, J Michael

2007-01-01

The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV:...

The effects of juvenile stress on anxiety, cognitive bias and decision making in adulthood: a rat model.

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Nichola M Brydges

Full Text Available Stress experienced in childhood is associated with an increased risk of developing psychiatric disorders in adulthood. These disorders are particularly characterized by disturbances to emotional and cognitive processes, which are not currently fully modeled in animals. Assays of cognitive bias have recently been used with animals to give an indication of their emotional/cognitive state. We used a cognitive bias test, alongside a traditional measure of anxiety (elevated plus maze, to investigate the effects of juvenile stress (JS on adulthood behaviour using a rodent model. During the cognitive bias test, animals were trained to discriminate between two reward bowls based on a stimulus (rough/smooth sandpaper encountered before they reached the bowls. One stimulus (e.g. rough was associated with a lower value reward than the other (e.g. smooth. Once rats were trained, their cognitive bias was explored through the presentation of an ambiguous stimulus (intermediate grade sandpaper: a rat was classed as optimistic if it chose the bowl ordinarily associated with the high value reward. JS animals were lighter than controls, exhibited increased anxiety-like behaviour in the elevated plus maze and were more optimistic in the cognitive bias test. This increased optimism may represent an optimal foraging strategy for these underweight animals. JS animals were also faster than controls to make a decision when presented with an ambiguous stimulus, suggesting altered decision making. These results demonstrate that stress in the juvenile phase can increase anxiety-like behaviour and alter cognitive bias and decision making in adulthood in a rat model.

Impairment of decision-making in multiple sclerosis: A neuroeconomic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sepúlveda, Maria; Fernández-Diez, Begoña; Martínez-Lapiscina, Elena H; Llufriu, Sara; Sola-Valls, Nuria; Zubizarreta, Irati; Blanco, Yolanda; Saiz, Albert; Levy, Dino; Glimcher, Paul; Villoslada, Pablo

2017-11-01

To assess the decision-making impairment in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and how they relate to other cognitive domains. We performed a cross-sectional analysis in 84 patients with MS, and 21 matched healthy controls using four tasks taken from behavioral economics: (1) risk preferences, (2) choice consistency, (3) delay of gratification, and (4) rate of learning. All tasks were conducted using real-world reward outcomes (food or money) in different real-life conditions. Participants underwent cognitive examination using the Brief Repeatable Battery-Neuropsychology. Patients showed higher risk aversion (general propensity to choose the lottery was 0.51 vs 0.64, p = 0.009), a trend to choose more immediate rewards over larger but delayed rewards ( p = 0.108), and had longer reactions times ( p = 0.033). Choice consistency and learning rates were not different between groups. Progressive patients chose slower than relapsing patients. In relation to general cognitive impairments, we found correlations between impaired decision-making and impaired verbal memory ( r = 0.29, p = 0.009), visual memory ( r = -0.37, p = 0.001), and reduced processing speed ( r = -0.32, p = 0.001). Normalized gray matter volume correlated with deliberation time ( r = -0.32, p = 0.005). Patients with MS suffer significant decision-making impairments, even at the early stages of the disease, and may affect patients' quality and social life.

End-User Applications of Real-Time Earthquake Information in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Cua, G. B.; Gasparini, P.; Giardini, D.; Zschau, J.; Filangieri, A. R.; Reakt Wp7 Team

2011-12-01

The primary objective of European FP7 project REAKT (Strategies and Tools for Real-Time Earthquake Risk Reduction) is to improve the efficiency of real-time earthquake risk mitigation methods and their capability of protecting structures, infrastructures, and populations. REAKT aims to address the issues of real-time earthquake hazard and response from end-to-end, with efforts directed along the full spectrum of methodology development in earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, and real-time vulnerability systems, through optimal decision-making, and engagement and cooperation of scientists and end users for the establishment of best practices for use of real-time information. Twelve strategic test cases/end users throughout Europe have been selected. This diverse group of applications/end users includes civil protection authorities, railway systems, hospitals, schools, industrial complexes, nuclear plants, lifeline systems, national seismic networks, and critical structures. The scale of target applications covers a wide range, from two school complexes in Naples, to individual critical structures, such as the Rion Antirion bridge in Patras, and the Fatih Sultan Mehmet bridge in Istanbul, to large complexes, such as the SINES industrial complex in Portugal and the Thessaloniki port area, to distributed lifeline and transportation networks and nuclear plants. Some end-users are interested in in-depth feasibility studies for use of real-time information and development of rapid response plans, while others intend to install real-time instrumentation and develop customized automated control systems. From the onset, REAKT scientists and end-users will work together on concept development and initial implementation efforts using the data products and decision-making methodologies developed with the goal of improving end-user risk mitigation. The aim of this scientific/end-user partnership is to ensure that scientific efforts are applicable to operational

Two Trees: Migrating Fault Trees to Decision Trees for Real Time Fault Detection on International Space Station

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Charles; Alena, Richard L.; Robinson, Peter

2004-01-01

We started from ISS fault trees example to migrate to decision trees, presented a method to convert fault trees to decision trees. The method shows that the visualizations of root cause of fault are easier and the tree manipulating becomes more programmatic via available decision tree programs. The visualization of decision trees for the diagnostic shows a format of straight forward and easy understands. For ISS real time fault diagnostic, the status of the systems could be shown by mining the signals through the trees and see where it stops at. The other advantage to use decision trees is that the trees can learn the fault patterns and predict the future fault from the historic data. The learning is not only on the static data sets but also can be online, through accumulating the real time data sets, the decision trees can gain and store faults patterns in the trees and recognize them when they come.

Hyperchaotic phenomena in dynamic decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus; Mosekilde, Erik; Sterman, John David

1992-01-01

of this article is to show how the decision making behavior of real people in simulated corporate environments can lead to chaotic, hyperchaotic and higher-order hyperchaotic phenomena. Characteristics features of these complicated forms of behavior are analyzed with particular emphasis on an interesting form...

Study on Real-Time Simulation Analysis and Inverse Analysis System for Temperature and Stress of Concrete Dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In the concrete dam construction, it is very necessary to strengthen the real-time monitoring and scientific management of concrete temperature control. This paper constructs the analysis and inverse analysis system of temperature stress simulation, which is based on various useful data collected in real time in the process of concrete construction. The system can produce automatically data file of temperature and stress calculation and then achieve the remote real-time simulation calculation of temperature stress by using high performance computing techniques, so the inverse analysis can be carried out based on a basis of monitoring data in the database; it fulfills the automatic feedback calculation according to the error requirement and generates the corresponding curve and chart after the automatic processing and analysis of corresponding results. The system realizes the automation and intellectualization of complex data analysis and preparation work in simulation process and complex data adjustment in the inverse analysis process, which can facilitate the real-time tracking simulation and feedback analysis of concrete temperature stress in construction process and enable you to discover problems timely, take measures timely, and adjust construction scheme and can well instruct you how to ensure project quality.

Influence of Uncertainty and Time Stress on Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

1993-10-01

a. . . . . . . . . . . . 23 A General Theoretical Framwork .a .........* 24 Concepts for Aiding Decisions Under Conditions of...seemed to be how they were conceptualizing uncer- tainty). A third, somewhat %tinor change would be to present participants with the COA after the

A Data Analytical Framework for Improving Real-Time, Decision Support Systems in Healthcare

Science.gov (United States)

Yahav, Inbal

2010-01-01

In this dissertation we develop a framework that combines data mining, statistics and operations research methods for improving real-time decision support systems in healthcare. Our approach consists of three main concepts: data gathering and preprocessing, modeling, and deployment. We introduce the notion of offline and semi-offline modeling to…

A REAL TIME DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR THE ADJUSTMENT OF SAILBOAT RIGGING

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Inmaculada Ortigosa

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The operational complexity and performance requirements of modern racing yachts demand the use of advanced applications, such as a decision support system (DSS able to assist crew members during navigation. In this article, the authors describe a near-time computational solver as the main piece of a DSS which analyses and monitors the behaviour of sails and rigging. The solver is made up of two different interconnected tools: an iterative Fluid-Structure Interaction algorithm and an advanced Wireless Sensor Network to monitor rigging. The real-time DSS quantifies crew manoeuvres in physical terms, which are reproduced by a simulation program. It can be used in the design phase of sailing yachts and as an aid for real-time boat performance optimisation and accident prevention. This novel DSS is a useful tool for navigation, especially in races.

Decision Making

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Pier Luigi Baldi

2006-06-01

Full Text Available This article points out some conditions which significantly exert an influence upon decision and compares decision making and problem solving as interconnected processes. Some strategies of decision making are also examined.

Attentional Filter Training but Not Memory Training Improves Decision-Making

OpenAIRE

Schmicker, Marlen; M?ller, Patrick; Schwefel, Melanie; M?ller, Notger G.

2017-01-01

Decision-making has a high practical relevance for daily performance. Its relation to other cognitive abilities such as executive control and memory is not fully understood. Here we asked whether training of either attentional filtering or memory storage would influence decision-making as indexed by repetitive assessments of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). The IGT was developed to assess and simulate real-life decision-making (Bechara et al., 2005). In this task, participants gain or lose money...

Surgical Consultation as Social Process: Implications for Shared Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Clapp, Justin T; Arriaga, Alexander F; Murthy, Sushila; Raper, Steven E; Schwartz, J Sanford; Barg, Frances K; Fleisher, Lee A

2017-12-12

This qualitative study examines surgical consultation as a social process and assesses its alignment with assumptions of the shared decision-making (SDM) model. SDM stresses the importance of patient preferences and rigorous discussion of therapeutic risks/benefits based on these preferences. However, empirical studies have highlighted discrepancies between SDM and realities of surgical decision making. Qualitative research can inform understanding of the decision-making process and allow for granular assessment of the nature and causes of these discrepancies. We observed consultations between 3 general surgeons and 45 patients considering undergoing 1 of 2 preference-sensitive elective operations: (1) hernia repair, or (2) cholecystectomy. These patients and surgeons also participated in semi-structured interviews. By the time of the consultation, patients and surgeons were predisposed toward certain decisions by preceding events occurring elsewhere. During the visit, surgeons had differential ability to arbitrate surgical intervention and construct the severity of patients' conditions. These upstream dynamics frequently displaced the centrality of the risk/benefit-based consent discussion. The influence of events preceding consultation suggests that decision-making models should account for broader spatiotemporal spans. Given surgeons' authority to define patients' conditions and control service provision, SDM may be premised on an overestimation of patients' power to alter the course of decision making once in a specialist's office. Considering the subordinate role of the risk/benefit discussion in many surgical decisions, it will be important to study if and how the social process of decision making is altered by SDM-oriented decision aids that foreground this discussion.

Making a good group decision (low risk) in Singapore under an environment that has time and cost constraints

OpenAIRE

Loo, Sok Hiang Candy

2014-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Organizations in Singapore operate in a highly competitive and fast-paced work environment that presents decision-making challenges at the individual, group, and organization levels. A key problem is achieving good decision fitness within time and cost constraints. While many decision-making theories and processes address the fundamental decision-making process, there is limited research on improving the group decision-making framework...

Development and Enhancement of a Model of Performance and Decision Making Under Stress in a Real Life Setting

Science.gov (United States)

1993-02-12

admission tnat occurred during airway manipulation, distracted the attending anesthesiologist managing patient one from detecting why the mechanical... articular interest in settings where skilled individuals function as a tear are the relationships between team performance and individual decision-making

Quantum-like dynamics of decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, Masanari; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu

2012-03-01

In cognitive psychology, some experiments for games were reported, and they demonstrated that real players did not use the “rational strategy” provided by classical game theory and based on the notion of the Nasch equilibrium. This psychological phenomenon was called the disjunction effect. Recently, we proposed a model of decision making which can explain this effect (“irrationality” of players) Asano et al. (2010, 2011) [23,24]. Our model is based on the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics, because psychological fluctuations inducing the irrationality are formally represented as quantum fluctuations Asano et al. (2011) [55]. In this paper, we reconsider the process of quantum-like decision-making more closely and redefine it as a well-defined quantum dynamics by using the concept of lifting channel, which is an important concept in quantum information theory. We also present numerical simulation for this quantum-like mental dynamics. It is non-Markovian by its nature. Stabilization to the steady state solution (determining subjective probabilities for decision making) is based on the collective effect of mental fluctuations collected in the working memory of a decision maker.

Stress Analysis and Fatigue Behaviour of PTFE-Bronze Layered Journal Bearing under Real-Time Dynamic Loading

Science.gov (United States)

Duman, M. S.; Kaplan, E.; Cuvalcı, O.

2018-01-01

The present paper is based on experimental studies and numerical simulations on the surface fatigue failure of the PTFE-bronze layered journal bearings under real-time loading. ‘Permaglide Plain Bearings P10’ type journal bearings were experimentally tested under different real time dynamic loadings by using real time journal bearing test system in our laboratory. The journal bearing consists of a PTFE-bronze layer approximately 0.32 mm thick on the steel support layer with 2.18 mm thick. Two different approaches have been considered with in experiments: (i) under real- time constant loading with varying bearing widths, (ii) under different real-time loadings at constant bearing widths. Fatigue regions, micro-crack dispersion and stress distributions occurred at the journal bearing were experimentally and theoretically investigated. The relation between fatigue region and pressure distributions were investigated by determining the circumferential pressure distribution under real-time dynamic loadings for the position of every 10° crank angles. In the theoretical part; stress and deformation distributions at the surface of the journal bearing analysed by using finite element methods to determine the relationship between stress and fatigue behaviour. As a result of this study, the maximum oil pressure and fatigue cracks were observed in the most heavily loaded regions of the bearing surface. Experimental results show that PTFE-Bronze layered journal bearings fatigue behaviour is better than the bearings include white metal alloy.

The Integrated System for Public Health Monitoring of West Nile Virus (ISPHM-WNV: a real-time GIS for surveillance and decision-making

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Lebel Germain

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background After its first detection in North America in New York in 1999, West Nile virus was detected for the first time in 2002 in the province of Quebec, Canada. This situation forced the Government of Quebec to adopt a public health protection plan against the virus. The plan comprises several fields of intervention including the monitoring of human cases, Corvidae and mosquitoes in order to ensure the early detection of the presence of the virus in a particular area. To help support the monitoring activities, the Integrated System for Public Health Monitoring of West Nile Virus (ISPHM-WNV has been developed. Results The ISPHM-WNV is a real-time geographic information system for public health surveillance of West Nile virus and includes information on Corvidae, mosquitoes, humans, horses, climate, and preventive larvicide interventions. It has been in operation in the province of Quebec, Canada, since May 2003. The ISPHM-WNV facilitates the collection, localization, management and analysis of monitoring data; it also allows for the display of the results of analyses on maps, tables and statistical diagrams. Conclusion The system is very helpful for field workers in all regions of the province, as well as for central authorities. It represents the common authoritative source of data for analysis, exchange and decision-making.

Response time distributions in rapid chess: A large-scale decision making experiment

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Mariano Sigman

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Rapid chess provides an unparalleled laboratory to understand decision making in a natural environment. In a chess game, players choose consecutively around 40 moves in a finite time budget. The goodness of each choice can be determined quantitatively since current chess algorithms estimate precisely the value of a position. Web-based chess produces vast amounts of data, millions of decisions per day, incommensurable with traditional psychological experiments. We generated a database of response times and position value in rapid chess games. We measured robust emergent statistical observables: 1 Response time (RT distributions are long-tailed and show qualitatively distinct forms at different stages of the game, 2 RT of successive moves are highly correlated both for intra- and inter-player moves. These findings have theoretical implications since they deny two basic assumptions of sequential decision making algorithms: RTs are not stationary and can not be generated by a state function. Our results also have practical implications. First, we characterized the capacity of blunders and score fluctuations to predict a player strength, which is yet an open problem in chess softwares. Second, we show that the winning likelihood can be reliably estimated from a weighted combination of remaining times and position evaluation.

Medical decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stiggelbout, A.M.; Vries, M. de; Scherer, L.; Keren, G.; Wu, G.

2016-01-01

This chapter presents an overview of the field of medical decision making. It distinguishes the levels of decision making seen in health-care practice and shows how research in judgment and decision making support or improve decision making. Most of the research has been done at the micro level,

Towards Rational Decision-Making in Secondary Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohn, Elchanan

Without a conscious effort to achieve optimum resource allocation, there is a real danger that educational resources may be wasted. This document uses input-output analysis to develop a model for rational decision-making in secondary education. (LLR)

Prospective Architectures for Onboard vs Cloud-Based Decision Making for Unmanned Aerial Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Teubert, Christopher

2017-01-01

This paper investigates propsective architectures for decision-making in unmanned aerial systems. When these unmanned vehicles operate in urban environments, there are several sources of uncertainty that affect their behavior, and decision-making algorithms need to be robust to account for these different sources of uncertainty. It is important to account for several risk-factors that affect the flight of these unmanned systems, and facilitate decision-making by taking into consideration these various risk-factors. In addition, there are several technical challenges related to autonomous flight of unmanned aerial systems; these challenges include sensing, obstacle detection, path planning and navigation, trajectory generation and selection, etc. Many of these activities require significant computational power and in many situations, all of these activities need to be performed in real-time. In order to efficiently integrate these activities, it is important to develop a systematic architecture that can facilitate real-time decision-making. Four prospective architectures are discussed in this paper; on one end of the spectrum, the first architecture considers all activities/computations being performed onboard the vehicle whereas on the other end of the spectrum, the fourth and final architecture considers all activities/computations being performed in the cloud, using a new service known as Prognostics as a Service that is being developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The four different architectures are compared, their advantages and disadvantages are explained and conclusions are presented.

Using Real Option Thinking to Improve Decision Making in Security Investment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; Houmb, S.H.; Daneva, Maia

2010-01-01

Making well-founded security investment decisions is hard: several alternatives may need to be considered, the alternatives' space is often diffuse, and many decision parameters that are traded-off are uncertain or incomplete. We cope with these challenges by proposing a method that supports

Decision-making for tracheostomy in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS): a retrospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ceriana, Piero; Surbone, Sara; Segagni, Daniele; Schreiber, Annia; Carlucci, Annalisa

2017-11-01

ALS patients should discuss the issue of tracheostomy before the onset of terminal respiratory failure. While the process of shared decision-making is desirable, there are few data on the practical application of this real-life situation. To determine how a decision-making process is actually carried out, we analysed the episodes of acute respiratory failure preceding tracheostomy. We studied the charts of a group of ALS patients after tracheostomy. An interview focusing on the existence of anticipated directives was carried out. Tracheostomies were classified as planned or unplanned according to the presence of a decision plan. A total of 209 ALS patients were cared for during a three-year period. Of these patients, 34 (16%) were tracheotomised. In 38% of cases, tracheostomy was planned, 41% were unplanned, and 21% remained undiagnosed. A minority of ALS patients make a voluntary decision for tracheostomy before the procedure is conducted. The advising process of care still presents limits that have been thus far poorly addressed. In the future, we will need to develop guidelines for the timing and content of the shared-decision making process.

Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

2016-11-01

The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

Collaboration and decision making tools for mobile groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abrahamyan, S.; Balyan, S.; Degtyarev, A.; Ter-Minasyan, H.

2017-01-01

Nowadays the use of distributed collaboration tools is widespread in many areas of people activity. But lack of mobility and certain equipment dependence create difficulties and decelerate development and integration of such technologies. Also, mobile technologies allow individuals to interact with each other without need of traditional office spaces and regardless of location. Hence, realization of special infrastructures on mobile platforms with the help of ad hoc wireless local networks could eliminate hardware attachment and be also useful in terms of scientific approach. Solutions from basic internet messengers to complex software for online collaboration equipment in large-scale workgroups are implementations of tools based on mobile infrastructures. Despite growth of mobile infrastructures, applied distributed solutions in group decision-making and e-collaboration are not common. In this article we propose software complex for real-time collaboration and decision-making based on mobile devices, describe its architecture and evaluate performance.

Internet use and decision making in community-based older adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bryan David James

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Use of the internet may provide tools and resources for better decision making, yet little is known about the association of internet use with decision-making in older persons. We examined this relationship in 66190 community-dwelling older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, an ongoing longitudinal study of aging. Participants were asked to report if they had access to the internet and how frequently they used the internet and email. A 12-item instrument was used to assess financial and healthcare decision making using materials designed to approximate those used in real world settings. Items were summed to yield a total decision-making score. Associations were tested via linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, race, education, and a measure of global cognitive function. Secondary models further adjusted for income, depression, loneliness, social networks, social support, chronic medical conditions, instrumental activities of daily living, life space size, and health and financial literacy. Interaction terms were used to test for effect modification. Almost 70% of participants had access to the internet, and of those with access, 55% used the internet at least several times a week. Higher frequency of internet use was associated with better financial and healthcare decision making (β=0.11, p=0.002. The association persisted in a fully adjusted model (β=0.08, p=0.024. Interaction models indicated that higher frequency of internet use attenuated the relationships of older age, poorer cognitive function, and lower levels of health and financial literacy with poorer healthcare and financial decision making. These findings indicate that internet use is associated with better health and financial decision making in older persons. Future research is required to understand whether promoting the use of the internet can produce improvements in healthcare and financial decision making.

Real-time observations of stressful events in the operating room

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AlNassar Sami

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Aim: To identify and quantify factors causing stress in the operating room (OR and evaluate the relationship between these factors and surgeons′ stress level. Methods: This is a prospective observational study from 32 elective surgical procedures conducted in the OR of King Khalid University Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Before each operation, each surgeon was asked of stressors. Two interns observed 16 surgeries each, separately. The interns watched and took notes during the entire surgical procedure. During each operation, the observer recorded anxiety-inducing activities and events that occurred in real time by means of a checklist of 8 potential stressors: technical, patient problems, teamwork problems, time and management issues, distractions and interruptions, equipment problems, personal problems, and teaching. After each operation, surgeons were asked to answer the validated State-Trait Anxiety Inventory questionnaire and self-report on their stress level from the 8 sources using a scale of 1-8 (1: stress free, 8: extremely stressful. The observer also recorded perceived stress levels experienced by the surgeons during the operation. Results: One hundred ten stressors were identified. Technical problems most frequently caused stress (16.4% and personal issues the least often (6.4%. Frequently encountered stressors (teaching and distractions/interruptions caused less stress to the surgeons. Technical factors, teamwork, and equipment problems occurred frequently and were also a major contributor to OR stress. All patients were discharged in good health and within 1 week of surgery. Conclusion: Certain stressful factors do occur among surgeons in the OR and can increase the potential for errors. Further research is required to determine the impact of stress on performance and the outcome of surgery.

A decision model for E and P petroleum projects using real options and preference theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, Gabriel A.C. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Lab. de Analise Geoconomica (LAGE); Suslick, Saul B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Centro de Estudo do Petroleo; Nepomuceno Filho, Francisco [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2004-07-01

The results from Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) are limited as a tool for decision-making in the petroleum industry because they do not properly take into account three important features of the modern investments: uncertainty, irreversibility, timing and corporation's risk-aversion. Recent developments in real options and preference theories have allowed decision-makers to employ these two approaches separately in the process of valuation and decision-making of risky projects. This paper presents a model for valuation and decision-making integrating discounted cash flow, real options and reference theory. This model seems to be suitable to answer to the following questions: what is the current value of an oil project? what is the optimal working interest in this project venture?; what is criteria to select projects considering investment irreversibility, uncertainty and timing to implement decisions? This model is applied to valuation and decision-making of a project to produce oil from a deep-water reservoir and its results are compared to those of the traditional approach. NPV model suggest that, as the project value is above its investment cost, the corporation should invest immediately and take 100% working interest in the project. Contrarily, the integrated model suggest the corporation should invest as long as project current value is as large as 1.85 times investment cost and should take only 44.38% working interest, whereas partners fund and acquire the remaining 55,62% of the project. In general, results indicate that NPV tend to pay more attention on return and does not account properly for risk. Then, as the uncertainty or volatile of strategic variables increases, the two models give more divergent results. (author)

Interpatch foraging in honeybees-rational decision making at secondary hubs based upon time and motivation.

Science.gov (United States)

Najera, Daniel A; McCullough, Erin L; Jander, Rudolf

2012-11-01

For honeybees, Apis mellifera, the hive has been well known to function as a primary decision-making hub, a place from which foragers decide among various directions, distances, and times of day to forage efficiently. Whether foraging honeybees can make similarly complex navigational decisions from locations away from the hive is unknown. To examine whether or not such secondary decision-making hubs exist, we trained bees to forage at four different locations. Specifically, we trained honeybees to first forage to a distal site "CT" 100 m away from the hive; if food was present, they fed and then chose to go home. If food was not present, the honeybees were trained to forage to three auxiliary sites, each at a different time of the day: A in the morning, B at noon, and C in the afternoon. The foragers learned to check site CT for food first and then efficiently depart to the correct location based upon the time of day if there was no food at site CT. Thus, the honeybees were able to cognitively map motivation, time, and five different locations (Hive, CT, A, B, and C) in two spatial dimensions; these are the contents of the cognitive map used by the honeybees here. While at site CT, we verified that the honeybees could choose between 4 different directions (to A, B, C, and the Hive) and thus label it as a secondary decision-making hub. The observed decision making uncovered here is inferred to constitute genuine logical operations, involving a branched structure, based upon the premises of motivational state, and spatiotemporal knowledge.

Development of the decision make supporting system on incident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasamatsu, Mizuki; Hanada, Satoshi; Noda, Eisuke

2017-01-01

Decision Make Supporting System is designed to support appropriate decision made by top management in the nuclear severe conditions. With crisis response in nuclear power plant (NPP), information entanglement between sites and control centers during intense situations interfere with prompt and accurate decision making. This research started with that kind of background. In order to solve the issue of the information entanglement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Inc. (MHI) carried out the development of the Decision Make Supporting System and the system applies the technology combining the human factors engineering (HFE) and information and communication technology (ICT). During the crisis response, various commands, reactions and communications in a human system need to be managed. Therefore, the combined HFE method including detailed task analysis, user experience (UX), graphic user interface (GUI) and related human-system interface (HSI) design method is applied to the design of the system. These design results systematize the functions that prevent interference with decision-making in the headquarters for incident management. This new solution as a system enhances the safety improvement of the NPP and contributes to develop the skills and abilities of the resources in the NPP. The system has three key features for supporting emergency situations: 'understanding the situation', 'planning the next action', and 'managing resources'. The system helps commanders and responders to grasp the whole situation and allows them to share information in real time to get a whole picture, and the system accumulates the data of the past events in the chronological order to understand correctly how they happened and plan the next action by using a knowledge database that MHI has been developed. If the unexpected event happens which are not in the incident scenario, the system provides support to formulate alternative strategies and measures. With this

The decision-making threshold and the factors that affect it: A qualitative study of patients' decision-making in knee replacement surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, T; Scott, P; Thomson, L; Griffin, D; Realpe, A

2018-03-01

Osteoarthritis is a significant cause of burden to the ageing population and knee replacement is a common operation for treatment of end-stage disease. We aimed to explore these factors to help understand patients' decision-making, which is critical in informing patient-centred care. These can be used to enhance decision-making and dialogue between clinicians and patients, allowing a more informed choice. The study consisted of two focus groups, in a patient cohort after total knee replacement followed by more in-depth interviews to further test and explore themes from the focus groups, in patients in either the deliberation stage or the decision-making stage. Using qualitative research methods (iterative thematic analysis) reviewing decision-making and deliberation phases of making informed choices we found nine key themes that emerged from the study groups. An awareness of the deliberation phase, the factors that influence it, the stress associated with it, preferred models of care, and the influence of the decision-making threshold will aid useful communication between doctors and patients. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Economic decision-making in morning/evening-type people as a function of time of day.

Science.gov (United States)

Correa, Angel; Ruiz-Herrera, Noelia; Ruz, Maria; Tonetti, Lorenzo; Martoni, Monica; Fabbri, Marco; Natale, Vincenzo

2017-01-01

Decision-making is affected by psychological factors like emotional state or cognitive control, which may also vary with circadian rhythmicity. Here, we tested the influence of chronotype (32 morning-type versus 32 evening-type) and time of day (9 a.m. versus 5 p.m.) on interpersonal decision-making as measured by the Ultimatum Game. Participants had to accept or reject different economic offers proposed by a virtual participant. Acceptance involved distribution of gains as proposed, whereas rejection resulted in no gain for either player. The results of the game showed a deviation from rational performance, as participants usually rejected the unfair offers. This behaviour was similar for both chronotype groups, and in both times of day. This result may reflect the robustness of decision-making strategies across standard circadian phases under ecological conditions. Furthermore, morning-types invested more time than evening-types to respond to high-uncertainty offers. This more cautious decision-making style of morning-types fits with our finding of higher proactive control as compared to evening-types when performing the AX-Continuous Performance Task. In line with the literature on personality traits, our results suggest that morning-types behave with more conscientiousness and less risk-taking than evening-type individuals.

Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Şükrü Ada

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

The role of science in support of operational decision-making during oil spills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, A.H.; Robinson, J.H.

1991-01-01

The potential for environmental damage is the principal rationale for responding to oil spills in the United States, and most other countries. Numerous factors influence response decisions regarding containment, cleanup and treatment operations. Important influences which drive how decisions will be made include politics, economics, environmental concerns, public relations, and aesthetics. A common misperceptions that scientific information cannot be generated on a real-time basis, that is, that scientific studies generally require more time to conduct than the spill response time frame permits. This paper discusses how to organize a scientific program in support of operational decision-making during oil spills, using NOAA's Scientific Support Team as an illustrative example. The paper also describes various types of scientific activities, including use of types of off-the-shelf technology and instrumentation, which can be conducted at the time of a spill, such as those implemented during the EXXON VALDEZ. Lastly, the paper provides guidance on how to generate and mange valid scientific information in ways that are relevant to timely response decision-making

Decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Chambers, David W

2011-01-01

A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

Decision making with a time limit: The effects of presentation modality and structure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cao, Y.; Theune, Mariet; Nijholt, Antinus; Norros, L.; Koskinen, H.; Salo, L.; Savioja, P.

2009-01-01

In this study, a user experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of information presentation factors (modality and structure) on decision making behavior, using a time-limited task. The time constraint required subjects to develop heuristic strategies to substitute the defined normative

Reasoning and Action: Implementation of a Decision-Making Program in Sport.

Science.gov (United States)

Gil-Arias, Alexander; Moreno, M Perla; García-Mas, Alex; Moreno, Alberto; García-González, Luíz; Del Villar, Fernando

2016-09-20

The objective of this study was to apply a decision training programme, based on the use of video-feedback and questioning, in real game time, in order to improve decision-making in volleyball attack actions. A three-phase quasi-experimental design was implemented: Phase A (pre-test), Phase B (Intervention) and Phase C (Retention). The sample was made up of 8 female Under-16 volleyball players, who were divided into two groups: experimental group (n = 4) and control group (n = 4). The independent variable was the decision training program, which was applied for 11 weeks in a training context, more specifically in a 6x6 game situation. The player had to analyze the reasons and causes of the decision taken. The dependent variable was decision-making, which was assessed based on systematic observation, using the "Game Performance Assessment Instrument" (GPAI) (Oslin, Mitchell, & Griffin, 1998). Results showed that, after applying the decision training program, the experimental group showed a significantly higher average percentage of successful decisions than the control group F(1, 6) = 11.26; p = .015; η2 p = .652; 95% CI [056, 360]. These results highlight the need to complement the training process with cognitive tools such as video-feedback and questioning in order to improve athletes' decision-making.

Response time distributions in rapid chess: a large-scale decision making experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sigman, Mariano; Etchemendy, Pablo; Slezak, Diego Fernández; Cecchi, Guillermo A

2010-01-01

Rapid chess provides an unparalleled laboratory to understand decision making in a natural environment. In a chess game, players choose consecutively around 40 moves in a finite time budget. The goodness of each choice can be determined quantitatively since current chess algorithms estimate precisely the value of a position. Web-based chess produces vast amounts of data, millions of decisions per day, incommensurable with traditional psychological experiments. We generated a database of response times (RTs) and position value in rapid chess games. We measured robust emergent statistical observables: (1) RT distributions are long-tailed and show qualitatively distinct forms at different stages of the game, (2) RT of successive moves are highly correlated both for intra- and inter-player moves. These findings have theoretical implications since they deny two basic assumptions of sequential decision making algorithms: RTs are not stationary and can not be generated by a state-function. Our results also have practical implications. First, we characterized the capacity of blunders and score fluctuations to predict a player strength, which is yet an open problem in chess softwares. Second, we show that the winning likelihood can be reliably estimated from a weighted combination of remaining times and position evaluation.

Transport fleet sizing by using make and buy decision-making

OpenAIRE

Stojanović Đurđica; Nikoličić Svetlana; Miličić Milica

2011-01-01

Cost reduction is among the main quoted reasons for logistics outsourcing, while transport capacities and operations are among the most outsourced logistics areas. However, according to transaction costs theory, there is often room for transport insourcing. Furthermore, nowadays many authors stress that mixed solutions can give better results than “make” or “buy” alternatives. “Make or buy” decision-making normative models, methods, and procedures in transport planning are not much expl...

Real-time optimisation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Richaud, Bertrand; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2011-01-01

-time optimisation. First, the simulation-optimisation framework is applied for optimising reservoir operating rules. Secondly, real-time and forecast information is used for on-line optimisation that focuses on short-term goals, such as flood control or hydropower generation, without compromising the deviation...... in the downstream part of the Red River, and at the same time to increase hydropower generation and to save water for the dry season. The real-time optimisation procedure further improves the efficiency of the reservoir operation and enhances the flexibility for the decision-making. Finally, the quality......Multi-purpose reservoirs often have to be managed according to conflicting objectives, which requires efficient tools for trading-off the objectives. This paper proposes a multi-objective simulation-optimisation approach that couples off-line rule curve optimisation with on-line real...

Making the optimal decision in selecting protective clothing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Price, J. Mark

2007-01-01

Protective Clothing plays a major role in the decommissioning and operation of nuclear facilities. Literally thousands of employee dress-outs occur over the life of a decommissioning project and during outages at operational plants. In order to make the optimal decision on which type of protective clothing is best suited for the decommissioning or maintenance and repair work on radioactive systems, a number of interrelating factors must be considered, including - Protection; - Personnel Contamination; - Cost; - Radwaste; - Comfort; - Convenience; - Logistics/Rad Material Considerations; - Reject Rate of Laundered Clothing; - Durability; - Security; - Personnel Safety including Heat Stress; - Disposition of Gloves and Booties. In addition, over the last several years there has been a trend of nuclear power plants either running trials or switching to Single Use Protective Clothing (SUPC) from traditional protective clothing. In some cases, after trial usage of SUPC, plants have chosen not to switch. In other cases after switching to SUPC for a period of time, some plants have chosen to switch back to laundering. Based on these observations, this paper reviews the 'real' drivers, issues, and interrelating factors regarding the selection and use of protective clothing throughout the nuclear industry. (authors)

Medical decision-making in children and adolescents: developmental and neuroscientific aspects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grootens-Wiegers, Petronella; Hein, Irma M.; van den Broek, Jos M.; de Vries, Martine C.

2017-01-01

Various international laws and guidelines stress the importance of respecting the developing autonomy of children and involving minors in decision-making regarding treatment and research participation. However, no universal agreement exists as to at what age minors should be deemed decision-making

Shared decision making

Science.gov (United States)

... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000877.htm Shared decision making To use the sharing features on this page, ... treatment you both support. When to use Shared Decision Making Shared decision making is often used when you ...

Analyzing Decision Logs to Understand Decision Making in Serious Crime Investigations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dando, Coral J; Ormerod, Thomas C

2017-12-01

Objective To study decision making by detectives when investigating serious crime through the examination of decision logs to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection. Background Decision logs are used to record and justify decisions made during serious crime investigations. The complexity of investigative decision making is well documented, as are the errors associated with miscarriages of justice and inquests. The use of decision logs has not been the subject of an empirical investigation, yet they offer an important window into the nature of investigative decision making in dynamic, time-critical environments. Method A sample of decision logs from British police forces was analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to explore hypothesis generation and evidence selection by police detectives. Results Analyses revealed diversity in documentation of decisions that did not correlate with case type and identified significant limitations of the decision log approach to supporting investigative decision making. Differences emerged between experienced and less experienced officers' decision log records in exploration of alternative hypotheses, generation of hypotheses, and sources of evidential inquiry opened over phase of investigation. Conclusion The practical use of decision logs is highly constrained by their format and context of use. Despite this, decision log records suggest that experienced detectives display strategic decision making to avoid confirmation and satisficing, which affect less experienced detectives. Application Potential applications of this research include both training in case documentation and the development of new decision log media that encourage detectives, irrespective of experience, to generate multiple hypotheses and optimize the timely selection of evidence to test them.

Real world evidence: a form of big data, transforming healthcare data into actionable real time insights and informed business decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uttam Kumar Barick

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Data has always played an important role in assisting business decisions and overall improvement of a company’s strategies. The introduction of what has come to be named ‘BIG data’ has changed the industry paradigm altogether for a few domains like media, mobility, retail and social. Data from the real world is also considered as BIG data based on its magnitude, sources and the industry’s capacity to handle the same. Although, the healthcare industry has been using real world data for decades, digitization of health records has demonstrated its value to all the stakeholders with a reaffirmation of interest in it. Over time, companies are looking to adopt new technologies in linking these fragmented data for meaningful and actionable insights to demonstrate their value over competition. It has also been noticed that the consequences of not demonstrating the value of data are sometimes leads regulators and payers to be severe. The real challenge though is not in identifying data sets but transforming these data sets into actionable real time insights and business decisions. Evidence and value development frameworks need to work side by side, harnessing meaningful insights in parallel to product development from early phase to life-cycle management. This should in-turn create evidence and value-based insights for multiple stakeholders across the industry; ultimately supporting the patient as the end user to take informed decisions that impact access to care. This article attempts to review the current state of affairs in the area of BIG data in pharma OR BIG DIP as it is increasingly being referred to.

Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

CERN Document Server

Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

2012-01-01

This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

Real-time stress monitoring of highway bridges with a secured wireless sensor network.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-01

"This collaborative research aims to develop a real-time stress monitoring system for highway bridges with a secured wireless sensor network. The near term goal is to collect wireless sensor data under different traffic patterns from local highway br...

Decision-making deficits in normal elderly persons associated with executive personality disturbances.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Christopher M; Barrash, Joseph; Koenigs, Anna L; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L

2013-11-01

The problems that some community-dwelling elderly persons develop in real-world decision-making may have disastrous consequences for their health and financial well-being. Investigations across the adult life span have identified personality as an important individual differences variable that is related to decision-making ability. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between personality characteristics, as rated by an informant, and complex decision-making performance among elderly persons. It was hypothesized that deficits in decision-making would be associated with personality characteristics reflecting weak executive functioning (Lack of Planning, Poor Judgment, Lack of Persistence, Perseveration, Lack of Initiative, Impulsivity, and Indecisiveness). Fifty-eight elderly persons participated. Their health and cognitive status were deemed intact via comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. The Iowa Scales of Personality, completed by an informant, was used to assess personality characteristics, and the Iowa Gambling Task, completed by the participant, was used to assess complex decision-making abilities. Longstanding disturbances in executive personality characteristics were found to be associated with poor decision-making, and these disturbances remained predictive of poor decision-making even after taking into consideration demographic, neuropsychological, and mood factors. Acquired personality disturbances did not add significantly to prediction after longstanding disturbances were taken into account. Disturbances in other dimensions of personality were not significantly associated with poor decision-making. Our study suggests that attentiveness to the personality correlates of difficulties with aspects of executive functioning over the adult years could enhance the ability to identify older individuals at risk for problems with real-world decision-making.

Spirituality is associated with better prostate cancer treatment decision making experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

Mollica, Michelle A; Underwood, Willie; Homish, Gregory G; Homish, D Lynn; Orom, Heather

2016-02-01

This study examined whether spiritual beliefs are associated with greater decision-making satisfaction, lower decisional conflict and decision-making difficulty with the decision-making process in newly diagnosed men with prostate cancer. Participants were 1114 men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer who had recently made their treatment decision, but had not yet been treated. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze relationships between spirituality and decision-making satisfaction, decisional conflict, and decision-making difficulty, controlling for optimism and resilience, and clinical and sociodemographic factors. Results indicated that greater spirituality was associated with greater decision-making satisfaction (B = 0.02; p conflict (B = -0.42; p spiritual beliefs may be a coping resource during the treatment decision-making process. Providing opportunities for patients to integrate their spiritual beliefs and their perceptions of their cancer diagnosis and trajectory could help reduce patient uncertainty and stress during this important phase of cancer care continuum.

How the risky features of previous selection affect subsequent decision-making: evidence from behavioral and fMRI measures.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Guangheng; Zhang, Yifen; Xu, Jiaojing; Lin, Xiao; Du, Xiaoxia

2015-01-01

Human decision making is rarely conducted in temporal isolation. It is often biased and affected by environmental variables, particularly prior selections. In this study, we used a task that simulates a real gambling process to explore the effect of the risky features of a previous selection on subsequent decision making. Compared with decision making after an advantageous risk-taking situation (Risk_Adv), that after a disadvantageous risk-taking situation (Risk_Disadv) is associated with a longer response time (RT, the time spent in making decisions) and higher brain activations in the caudate and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Compared with decisions after Risk_Adv, those after Risk_Disadv in loss trials are associated with higher brain activations in the left superior temporal gyrus (STG) and the precuneus. Brain activity and relevant RTs significantly correlated. Overall, people who experience disadvantageous risk-taking selections tend to focus on current decision making and engage cognitive endeavors in value evaluation and in the regulation of their risk-taking behaviors during decision making.

Intelligent Decision-Making System with Green Pervasive Computing for Renewable Energy Business in Electricity Markets on Smart Grid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Park JongHyuk

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is about the intelligent decision-making system for the smart grid based electricity market which requires distributed decision making on the competitive environments composed of many players and components. It is very important to consider the renewable energy and emission problem which are expected to be monitored by wireless communication networks. It is very difficult to predict renewable energy outputs and emission prices over time horizon, so it could be helpful to catch up those data on real time basis using many different kinds of communication infrastructures. On this backgrounds this paper provides an algorithm to make an optimal decision considering above factors.

Attentional Filter Training but Not Memory Training Improves Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmicker, Marlen; Müller, Patrick; Schwefel, Melanie; Müller, Notger G

2017-01-01

Decision-making has a high practical relevance for daily performance. Its relation to other cognitive abilities such as executive control and memory is not fully understood. Here we asked whether training of either attentional filtering or memory storage would influence decision-making as indexed by repetitive assessments of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). The IGT was developed to assess and simulate real-life decision-making (Bechara et al., 2005). In this task, participants gain or lose money by developing advantageous or disadvantageous decision strategies. On five consecutive days we trained 29 healthy young adults (20-30 years) either in working memory (WM) storage or attentional filtering and measured their IGT scores after each training session. During memory training (MT) subjects performed a computerized delayed match-to-sample task where two displays of bars were presented in succession. During filter training (FT) participants had to indicate whether two simultaneously presented displays of bars matched or not. Whereas in MT the relevant target stimuli stood alone, in FT the targets were embedded within irrelevant distractors (bars in a different color). All subjects within each group improved their performance in the trained cognitive task. For the IGT, we observed an increase over time in the amount of money gained in the FT group only. Decision-making seems to be influenced more by training to filter out irrelevant distractors than by training to store items in WM. Selective attention could be responsible for the previously noted relationship between IGT performance and WM and is therefore more important for enhancing efficiency in decision-making.

Decision-making capacity should not be decisive in emergencies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hubbeling, Dieneke

2014-05-01

Examples of patients with anorexia nervosa, depression or borderline personality disorder who have decision-making capacity as currently operationalized, but refuse treatment, are discussed. It appears counterintuitive to respect their treatment refusal because their wish seems to be fuelled by their illness and the consequences of their refusal of treatment are severe. Some proposed solutions have focused on broadening the criteria for decision-making capacity, either in general or for specific patient groups, but these adjustments might discriminate against particular groups of patients and render the process less transparent. Other solutions focus on preferences expressed when patients are not ill, but this information is often not available. The reason for such difficulties with assessing decision-making capacity is that the underlying psychological processes of normal decision-making are not well known and one cannot differentiate between unwise decisions caused by an illness or other factors. The proposed alternative, set out in this paper, is to allow compulsory treatment of patients with decision-making capacity in cases of an emergency, if the refusal is potentially life threatening, but only for a time-limited period. The argument is also made for investigating hindsight agreement, in particular after compulsory measures.

The Impact of Stress and the Working Environment on Job Satisfaction and Decision-Making among Women Entrepreneurs in Mexico

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose-Melchor Medina

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The world is changing and these changes have deeply affected the status of women as entrepreneurs; women’s working force is growing by the day along with their entrepreneurship, forcing women to find a balance between their jobs and their personal lives. This research analyses the degree of the impact of stress and the working environment on women entrepreneurs’ efficient decision-making and job satisfaction. An empirical investigation is carry out in four states in the Mexican Republic. It is using multiple regression analyses in SPSS. Results show that working environment impacts positively on women entrepreneurs’ efficient decision-making. This means that by having a good working environment, women entrepreneurs are able to have good relationships with workers in order to face decision.

A real-time internal dose assessment exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bingham, D.; Bull, R. K.

2013-01-01

A real-time internal dose assessment exercise has been conducted in which participants were required to make decisions about sampling requirements, seek relevant information about the 'incident' and make various interim dose assessments. At the end of the exercise, each participant was requested to make a formal assessment, providing statements of the methods, models and assumptions used in that assessment. In this paper we describe how the hypothetical assessment case was set up and the exercise was conducted, the responses of the participants and the assessments of dose that they made. Finally we discuss the lessons learnt from the exercise and suggest how the exercise may be adapted to a wider range of participants. (authors)

Optimization for decision making linear and quadratic models

CERN Document Server

Murty, Katta G

2010-01-01

While maintaining the rigorous linear programming instruction required, Murty's new book is unique in its focus on developing modeling skills to support valid decision-making for complex real world problems, and includes solutions to brand new algorithms.

Risky decision making in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder : A meta-regression analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dekkers, T.J.; Popma, A.; Agelink van Rentergem, J.A.; Bexkens, A.; Huizenga, H.M.

ADHD has been associated with various forms of risky real life decision making, for example risky driving, unsafe sex and substance abuse. However, results from laboratory studies on decision making deficits in ADHD have been inconsistent, probably because of between study differences. We therefore

The Role of Psychological Adjustment in the Decision-making Process for Voluntary Termination of Pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sereno, Sara; Leal, Isabel; Maroco, João

2013-07-01

This study's objective was to evaluate the role of psychological adjustment in the decision-making process to have an abortion and explore individual variables that might influence this decision. In this cross-sectional study, we sequentially enrolled 150 women who made the decision to voluntarily terminate a pregnancy in Maternity Dr. Alfredo da Costa, in Lisbon, Portugal, between September 2008 and June 2009. The instruments were the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS), Satisfaction with Social Support Scale (SSSS), Emotional Assessment Scale (EAS), Decision Conflict Scale (DCS), and Beliefs and Values Questionnaire (BVQ). We analyzed the data using Student's T-tests, MANOVA, ANOVA, Tukey's post-hoc tests and CATPCA. Statistically significant effects were accepted for pdecision difficult and emotionally demanding, although they also identified it as a low conflict decision. The prevailing emotions were sadness, fear and stress; but despite these feelings, the participants remained psychologically adjusted in the moment they decided to have an abortion. The resolution to terminate the pregnancy was essentially shared with supportive people and it was mostly motivated by socio-economic issues. The different beliefs and values found in this sample, and their possible associations are discussed. Despite high levels of stress, the women were psychologically adjusted at the time of making the decision to terminate the pregnancy. However, opposing what has been previously reported, the women presented high levels of sadness and fear, showing that this decision was hard to make, triggering disruptive emotions.

Mental fatigue impairs soccer-specific decision-making skill.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Mitchell R; Zeuwts, Linus; Lenoir, Matthieu; Hens, Nathalie; De Jong, Laura M S; Coutts, Aaron J

2016-07-01

This study aimed to investigate the impact of mental fatigue on soccer-specific decision-making. Twelve well-trained male soccer players performed a soccer-specific decision-making task on two occasions, separated by at least 72 h. The decision-making task was preceded in a randomised order by 30 min of the Stroop task (mental fatigue) or 30 min of reading from magazines (control). Subjective ratings of mental fatigue were measured before and after treatment, and mental effort (referring to treatment) and motivation (referring to the decision-making task) were measured after treatment. Performance on the soccer-specific decision-making task was assessed using response accuracy and time. Visual search behaviour was also assessed throughout the decision-making task. Subjective ratings of mental fatigue and effort were almost certainly higher following the Stroop task compared to the magazines. Motivation for the upcoming decision-making task was possibly higher following the Stroop task. Decision-making accuracy was very likely lower and response time likely higher in the mental fatigue condition. Mental fatigue had unclear effects on most visual search behaviour variables. The results suggest that mental fatigue impairs accuracy and speed of soccer-specific decision-making. These impairments are not likely related to changes in visual search behaviour.

Decision Making and Cancer

OpenAIRE

Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

2015-01-01

We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

The roles of social stress and decision-making in non-suicidal self-injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Schatten, Heather T; Andover, Margaret S; Armey, Michael F

2015-10-30

Research suggests that individuals with a history of non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) do not have difficulty generating alternatives to social problems but choose more negative solutions, suggesting a deficit in decision-making. However, studies report no significant differences in risky decision-making on a performance-based task among individuals with and without NSSI histories. A limitation of these studies is that decision-making was only assessed at baseline. As individuals with a history of NSSI typically self-injure when experiencing negative emotions, decision-making ability may become impaired specifically in the presence of these emotions. The aim of the current study was to investigate decision-making ability among individuals with and without NSSI histories both at baseline and following a distressing social exclusion task. We compared individuals with (n=48) and without (n=72) NSSI histories on the Iowa Gambling Task, a behavioral measure of risky decision-making, before and after exclusion or inclusion on the Cyberball task. Results indicated no significant group differences in performance regardless of condition. When participants were grouped by racial/ethnic minority status, results indicated that non-Hispanic White individuals with a history of NSSI exhibited deterioration in risky decision-making ability following social exclusion. Potential explanations for these findings and clinical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mild cognitive impairment is associated with poorer decision-making in community-based older persons.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, S Duke; Boyle, Patricia A; James, Bryan D; Yu, Lei; Bennett, David A

2015-04-01

To test the hypothesis that mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is associated with poorer financial and healthcare decision-making. Community-based epidemiological cohort study. Communities throughout northeastern Illinois. Older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project (N = 730). All participants underwent a detailed clinical evaluation and decision-making assessment using a measure that closely approximates materials used in real-world financial and healthcare settings. This allowed for measurement of total decision-making and financial and healthcare decision-making. Regression models were used to examine whether MCI was associated with a lower level of decision-making. In subsequent analyses, the relationship between specific cognitive systems (episodic memory, semantic memory, working memory, perceptual speed, visuospatial ability) and decision-making was explored in participants with MCI. MCI was associated with lower total, financial, and healthcare decision-making scores after accounting for the effects of age, education, and sex. The effect of MCI on total decision-making was equivalent to the effect of more than 10 additional years of age. Additional models showed that, when considering multiple cognitive systems, perceptual speed accounted for the most variance in decision-making in participants with MCI. Persons with MCI may have poorer financial and healthcare decision-making in real-world situations, and perceptual speed may be an important contributor to poorer decision-making in persons with MCI. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Real-Time Management of Groundwater Resources Based on Wireless Sensors Networks

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Qingguo Zhou

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Groundwater plays a vital role in the arid inland river basins, in which the groundwater management is critical to the sustainable development of area economy and ecology. Traditional sustainable management approaches are to analyze different scenarios subject to assumptions or to construct simulation–optimization models to obtain optimal strategy. However, groundwater system is time-varying due to exogenous inputs. In this sense, the groundwater management based on static data is relatively outdated. As part of the Heihe River Basin (HRB, which is a typical arid river basin in Northwestern China, the Daman irrigation district was selected as the study area in this paper. First, a simulation–optimization model was constructed to optimize the pumping rates of the study area according to the groundwater level constraints. Three different groundwater level constraints were assigned to explore sustainable strategies for groundwater resources. The results indicated that the simulation–optimization model was capable of identifying the optimal pumping yields and satisfy the given constraints. Second, the simulation–optimization model was integrated with wireless sensors network (WSN technology to provide real-time features for the management. The results showed time-varying feature for the groundwater management, which was capable of updating observations, constraints, and decision variables in real time. Furthermore, a web-based platform was developed to facilitate the decision-making process. This study combined simulation and optimization model with WSN techniques and meanwhile attempted to real-time monitor and manage the scarce groundwater resource, which could be used to support the decision-making related to sustainable management.

Single versus Multiple Objective(s) Decision Making: An Application ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rahel

rather than exception in many real life decision-making circumstances. For example ...... stakeholders' relative importance of various attributes in the utility function. (Steuer 1986). ..... Multiple Criteria Optimization: Theory, Computation and.

Clinical decision-making: physicians' preferences and experiences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

White Martha

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Shared decision-making has been advocated; however there are relatively few studies on physician preferences for, and experiences of, different styles of clinical decision-making as most research has focused on patient preferences and experiences. The objectives of this study were to determine 1 physician preferences for different styles of clinical decision-making; 2 styles of clinical decision-making physicians perceive themselves as practicing; and 3 the congruence between preferred and perceived style. In addition we sought to determine physician perceptions of the availability of time in visits, and their role in encouraging patients to look for health information. Methods Cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. physicians. Results 1,050 (53% response rate physicians responded to the survey. Of these, 780 (75% preferred to share decision-making with their patients, 142 (14% preferred paternalism, and 118 (11% preferred consumerism. 87% of physicians perceived themselves as practicing their preferred style. Physicians who preferred their patients to play an active role in decision-making were more likely to report encouraging patients to look for information, and to report having enough time in visits. Conclusion Physicians tend to perceive themselves as practicing their preferred role in clinical decision-making. The direction of the association cannot be inferred from these data; however, we suggest that interventions aimed at promoting shared decision-making need to target physicians as well as patients.

Evaluation of Stream Mining Classifiers for Real-Time Clinical Decision Support System: A Case Study of Blood Glucose Prediction in Diabetes Therapy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Fong

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Earlier on, a conceptual design on the real-time clinical decision support system (rt-CDSS with data stream mining was proposed and published. The new system is introduced that can analyze medical data streams and can make real-time prediction. This system is based on a stream mining algorithm called VFDT. The VFDT is extended with the capability of using pointers to allow the decision tree to remember the mapping relationship between leaf nodes and the history records. In this paper, which is a sequel to the rt-CDSS design, several popular machine learning algorithms are investigated for their suitability to be a candidate in the implementation of classifier at the rt-CDSS. A classifier essentially needs to accurately map the events inputted to the system into one of the several predefined classes of assessments, such that the rt-CDSS can follow up with the prescribed remedies being recommended to the clinicians. For a real-time system like rt-CDSS, the major technological challenges lie in the capability of the classifier to process, analyze and classify the dynamic input data, quickly and upmost reliably. An experimental comparison is conducted. This paper contributes to the insight of choosing and embedding a stream mining classifier into rt-CDSS with a case study of diabetes therapy.

Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

Atmospheric dispersion models for real-time application in the decision support system being developed within the CEC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mikkelsen, T.

1992-01-01

A number of Commission of the European Communities member states are presently coordinating their research and development of a ''Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support'' (RODOS) for emergency assistance in the event of nuclear accident. In addition to atmospheric dispersion, the system involves multiple other radiological disciplines. The ability to estimate a specific atmospheric dispersion scenarios in real-time becomes a first-priority task and is of uttermost importance for the subsequent success or failure of such a comprehensive decision support system to guide off-site emergency situations. No single dispersion model is at present able to cover all possible release-types and scales of dispersion. A hierarchy of atmospheric flow and dispersion models is presently being ranked for suitability to real-time calculate air and integrated-air concentrations. Starting at the short-range scale, models are discriminated with respect to principle, adequacy and flexibility, CPU-time constraints, experimental evaluation record, instantaneous or short-time release handling, deposition measures (wet and dry), input and output data flexibility and uncertainty-handling and model-interpretation. Additional features of particular importance are: Robustness in schemes for meteorological preprocessing of meteorological input data, and on-line backfitting and data-assimilation procedures. Models demonstrating practical and operational use, including real-time operational experience, have in this context the highest priority, as opposed to the more sophisticated and theoretical ''development-type'' models. Real-time methods founded on our present knowledge and data concerning flow and dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer, are of primary interest. (au) (18 refs.)

Decision making in urological surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar

2012-06-01

Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.

Real-time well condition monitoring in extended reach wells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucs, R.; Spoerker, H.F. [OMV Austria Exploration and Production GmbH, Gaenserndorf (Austria); Thonhauser, G. [Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria)

2008-10-23

Ever rising daily operating cost for offshore operations make the risk of running into drilling problems due to torque and drag developments in extended reach applications a growing concern. One option to reduce cost related to torque and drag problems can be to monitor torque and drag trends in real time without additional workload on the platform drilling team. To evaluate observed torque or drag trends it is necessary to automatically recognize operations and to have a 'standard value' to compare the measurements to. The presented systematic approach features both options - fully automated operations recognition and real time analysis. Trends can be discussed between rig- and shore-based teams, and decisions can be based on up to date information. Since the system is focused on visualization of real-time torque and drag trends, instead of highly complex and repeated simulations, calculation time is reduced by comparing the real-time rig data against predictions imported from a commercial drilling engineering application. The system allows reacting to emerging stuck pipe situations or developing cuttings beds long before the situations become severe enough to result in substantial lost time. The ability to compare real-time data with historical data from the same or other wells makes the system a valuable tool in supporting a learning organization. The system has been developed in a joint research initiative for field application on the development of an offshore heavy oil field in New Zealand. (orig.)

Making difficult decisions how to be decisive and get the business done

CERN Document Server

Shaw, Peter J A

2010-01-01

You are faced with so many difficult decisions. Often your decision making seems random. It can be swayed by different situations and emotions. You need to be more rigorous in the way you make decisions and yet you have very little time to do so. Experience from others who have made tough decisions and a framework to help you do so would be invaluable. The courage to make decisions is sometimes a bit elusive. It is difficult to find the calmness to be able to make and live with those decisions. There is so much that can be learned from the experience of others. After working through this boo

Real-Time Monitoring and Evaluation of a Visual-Based Cervical Cancer Screening Program Using a Decision Support Job Aid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Curtis W. Peterson

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In many developing nations, cervical cancer screening is done by visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E of such screening programs is challenging. An enhanced visual assessment (EVA system was developed to augment VIA procedures in low-resource settings. The EVA System consists of a mobile colposcope built around a smartphone, and an online image portal for storing and annotating images. A smartphone app is used to control the mobile colposcope, and upload pictures to the image portal. In this paper, a new app feature that documents clinical decisions using an integrated job aid was deployed in a cervical cancer screening camp in Kenya. Six organizations conducting VIA used the EVA System to screen 824 patients over the course of a week, and providers recorded their diagnoses and treatments in the application. Real-time aggregated statistics were broadcast on a public website. Screening organizations were able to assess the number of patients screened, alongside treatment rates, and the patients who tested positive and required treatment in real time, which allowed them to make adjustments as needed. The real-time M&E enabled by “smart” diagnostic medical devices holds promise for broader use in screening programs in low-resource settings.

Real-Time Monitoring and Evaluation of a Visual-Based Cervical Cancer Screening Program Using a Decision Support Job Aid.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Curtis W; Rose, Donny; Mink, Jonah; Levitz, David

2016-05-16

In many developing nations, cervical cancer screening is done by visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of such screening programs is challenging. An enhanced visual assessment (EVA) system was developed to augment VIA procedures in low-resource settings. The EVA System consists of a mobile colposcope built around a smartphone, and an online image portal for storing and annotating images. A smartphone app is used to control the mobile colposcope, and upload pictures to the image portal. In this paper, a new app feature that documents clinical decisions using an integrated job aid was deployed in a cervical cancer screening camp in Kenya. Six organizations conducting VIA used the EVA System to screen 824 patients over the course of a week, and providers recorded their diagnoses and treatments in the application. Real-time aggregated statistics were broadcast on a public website. Screening organizations were able to assess the number of patients screened, alongside treatment rates, and the patients who tested positive and required treatment in real time, which allowed them to make adjustments as needed. The real-time M&E enabled by "smart" diagnostic medical devices holds promise for broader use in screening programs in low-resource settings.

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P

2015-12-15

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions.

Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

2015-01-01

A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

Calculus formation: nurses' decision-making in abortion-related care.

Science.gov (United States)

McLemore, Monica R; Kools, Susan; Levi, Amy J

2015-06-01

Nurses routinely provide care to patients in ethically challenging situations. To explore the continuum between conscientious objectors and designated staff in the provision of care to women seeking abortions, the aim of this study was to thickly describe decision-making, using abortion as the clinical context to elucidate how nurses approach ethically challenging work. A purposive sample of 25 nurses who worked in abortion clinics, emergency departments, intensive care units, labor, and delivery, operating rooms, and post anesthesia care units were interviewed. Qualitative description and thematic analysis were used to identify the cognitive, emotional, and behavioral processes in nurses' decisions to care for women needing abortions. Nurses developed and used multifaceted, real-time calculi when making decisions about their participation in emergent or routine abortion care. Nurses tacked back and forth between the personal and professional and/or held multiple contradictory positions simultaneously. Nurses weighed the role and opinion of others to determine if they know how to or know why they would provide abortion care to women, particularly in the elective abortion context. The parameters of the nurse-patient relationship were complex and specific to the experiences of both the nurse and patient. Findings from this study further develop the science of ethically challenging decision-making and expand our understanding of factors that influence how nurses develop relationships to ethically challenging work. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Against all odds -- Probabilistic forecasts and decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Liechti, Katharina; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In the city of Zurich (Switzerland) the setting is such that the damage potential due to flooding of the river Sihl is estimated to about 5 billion US dollars. The flood forecasting system that is used by the administration for decision making runs continuously since 2007. It has a time horizon of max. five days and operates at hourly time steps. The flood forecasting system includes three different model chains. Two of those are run by the deterministic NWP models COSMO-2 and COSMO-7 and one is driven by the probabilistic NWP COSMO-Leps. The model chains are consistent since February 2010, so five full years are available for the evaluation for the system. The system was evaluated continuously and is a very nice example to present the added value that lies in probabilistic forecasts. The forecasts are available on an online-platform to the decision makers. Several graphical representations of the forecasts and forecast-history are available to support decision making and to rate the current situation. The communication between forecasters and decision-makers is quite close. To put it short, an ideal situation. However, an event or better put a non-event in summer 2014 showed that the knowledge about the general superiority of probabilistic forecasts doesn't necessarily mean that the decisions taken in a specific situation will be based on that probabilistic forecast. Some years of experience allow gaining confidence in the system, both for the forecasters and for the decision-makers. Even if from the theoretical point of view the handling during crisis situation is well designed, a first event demonstrated that the dialog with the decision-makers still lacks of exercise during such situations. We argue, that a false alarm is a needed experience to consolidate real-time emergency procedures relying on ensemble predictions. A missed event would probably also fit, but, in our case, we are very happy not to report about this option.

Decision making in midwifery: rationality and intuition.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinhauer, Suyai

2015-04-01

Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.

Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

2014-01-01

The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

Intergroup Conflict and Rational Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A.; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

2014-01-01

The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict –associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)– has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making. PMID:25461384

Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vicente Martínez-Tur

Full Text Available The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

The cognitive error in decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pier Luigi Baldi

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This issue deals with the partial data of a research in progress on focalization, pseudodiagnosticity and framing- effect in decision making, followed by the most important results of some experiments about the emotional aspects of the choice, and ends by stressing the potential contribution of the artificial neural networks to the medical diagnosis.

Expert system of real time for support of operators of atomic power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashlykov, A.A.; Davidenko, N.N.; Dumshev, V.G.; Kislov, G.I.; Pavlova, E.V.; Prozorovskij, E.D.; Bashlykov, A.A.

1994-01-01

The problems of construction and introdution of an intellectual system for information support of operators at nuclear power plants are discussed. This system is used for operator assisstance during real time decision making for NPP operational regime control

Decision making during an early phase of a nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grlicarev, I.

2004-01-01

The optimisation of protective actions is a process which requires previous planning. The optimisation might not be performed in all the cases, but, at least, justification of the protective action is required. Striving for ideal solution could lead that the action is delayed and protective action becomes inappropriate. The process of decision making must be simple and transparent due to time constraints, and the sources of important information shall be reliable and identified in advance in order to save time and avoid stress. (author)

Make or buy strategy decision making in supply quality chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyed Mohammad Seyedhosseini

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Minimizing the total cost is absolutely the goal of each supply chain, which is most of the time pursued. In this regards, quality related costs that have significant roles are sometimes neglected. Selecting suppliers, which supply relatively high quality raw materials in a lower cost is considered as a strategic decision. Make or Buy decision can be also noticed in supplier selection process. In this paper, the supply strategy: Make or Buy decision (SS: MOB is studied in order to find which strategy (Make or Buy should be chosen to minimize the total costs of supply chain. Therefore, two separate models are generated for each strategy and several examples are solved for the respective models. Computational experiments show the efficiency of the proposed models for making decision about selecting the best strategy.

Real-time emergency forecasting technique for situation management systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kopytov, V. V.; Kharechkin, P. V.; Naumenko, V. V.; Tretyak, R. S.; Tebueva, F. B.

2018-05-01

The article describes the real-time emergency forecasting technique that allows increasing accuracy and reliability of forecasting results of any emergency computational model applied for decision making in situation management systems. Computational models are improved by the Improved Brown’s method applying fractal dimension to forecast short time series data being received from sensors and control systems. Reliability of emergency forecasting results is ensured by the invalid sensed data filtering according to the methods of correlation analysis.

Real-time data for estimating a forward-looking interest rate rule of the ECB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilman Bletzinger

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the data presented in this article is to use it in ex post estimations of interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB, as it is done by Bletzinger and Wieland (2017 [1]. The data is of quarterly frequency from 1999 Q1 until 2013 Q2 and consists of the ECB's policy rate, inflation rate, real output growth and potential output growth in the euro area. To account for forward-looking decision making in the interest rate rule, the data consists of expectations about future inflation and output dynamics. While potential output is constructed based on data from the European Commission's annual macro-economic database, inflation and real output growth are taken from two different sources both provided by the ECB: the Survey of Professional Forecasters and projections made by ECB staff. Careful attention was given to the publication date of the collected data to ensure a real-time dataset only consisting of information which was available to the decision makers at the time of the decision. Keywords: Interest rate rule estimation, Real-time data, Forward-looking data

Collective familial decision-making in times of trouble: intergenerational solidarity in Ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

McGadney-Douglass, Brenda F; Douglass, Richard L

2008-06-01

In post-colonial populations the retention of the nuclear family concept of collectivism as the basis for decision-making is associated with familial and cultural survival. Collectivism within familial contexts provides intergenerational access to experience, information, resources, and sound decision making during times of conflict or dealing with the consequences of poverty. In contemporary Ghana inter-ethnic wars and conflict have marginalized minority groups, causing substantial internal displacement of people. Poverty and cultural issues have caused a persistently high level of child malnutrition and mortality in all areas of Ghana, including urban centers where appropriate food is in abundance. In each of these circumstances the senior women, particularly the grandmothers, have been found to be essential for child survival, protecting the family from dissolution, and ensuring intergenerational cultural transmission. This paper discusses the place of collective decision-making processes of older African women in two studies in Ghana that assessed the: (1) indigenous methods used for understanding and arresting violent ethnic conflict by internally displaced women who survived the 1994/95 Guinea Fowl War; and (2) parenting and grandparenting strategies from families who insured the survival of children suffering from kwashiorkor, a severe form of childhood malnutrition. In this paper, findings from qualitative interview data will include narratives and illustrative cases.

The decision-making process of workers in using sick time.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandal, Candace L; Click, Elizabeth R; Dowling, Donna A; Guzik, Arlene

2014-08-01

The cost of employee absenteeism in the United States is significant in terms of sick pay, overtime costs, replacement personnel compensation, and lost productivity. Little is known about what workers consider when deciding to use sick time. Previous studies have examined work absence from an array of perspectives, including resulting work strain, job satisfaction, and job security, but absenteeism in the workplace has not been examined in terms of decision making. To scrutinize workers' decisions about using sick time, a descriptive pilot study was undertaken with a convenience sample (n = 94) of working college students. The responses to the survey revealed that the majority of the workers (73.4%) used sick time because they were too ill to work. These results are in direct opposition to previous research and suggest that workers may need education about preventing and managing minor illnesses before an absence is needed. Supporting and engaging employees and their significant others in healthy worker programs, regular surveillance examinations, and illness prevention strategies are wise investments in companies' financial futures. Future research should include a comparative study of worker absenteeism between worksites with occupational health nurses and those without nurses. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Mild Cognitive Impairment is Associated with PoorerDecision Making in Community-Based Older Persons

Science.gov (United States)

Duke Han, S.; Boyle, Patricia A.; James, Bryan D.; Yu, Lei; Bennett, David A.

2015-01-01

Background/Objectives Financial and healthcare decision making are important for maintaining wellbeing and independence in old age. We tested the hypothesis that Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) is associated with poorer decision making in financial and healthcare matters. Design Community-based epidemiologic cohort study. Setting Communities throughout Northeastern Illinois. Participants Participants were 730 older nondemented persons from the Rush Memory and Aging Project. Measurements All participants underwent a detailed clinical evaluation and decision making assessment using a measure that closely approximates materials utilized in real world financial and healthcare settings. This allowed for measurement of total decision making, as well as financial and healthcare decision making. Regression models were used to examine whether the presence of MCI was associated with a lower level of decision making. In subsequent analyses, we explored the relation of specific cognitive systems (i.e., episodic memory, semantic memory, working memory, perceptual speed, and visuospatial ability) with decision making in those with MCI. Results Results showed that MCI was associated with lower decision making total scores as well as financial and healthcare scores, respectively, after accounting for the effects of age, education, and sex. The effect of MCI on total decision making was equivalent to the effect of more than 10 additional years of age. Additional models showed that when considering multiple cognitive systems, perceptual speed accounted for the most variance in decision making among participants with MCI. Conclusion Results suggest that persons with MCI may exhibit poorer financial and healthcare decision making in real world situations, and that perceptual speed may be an important contributor to poorer decision making among persons with MCI. PMID:25850350

Real-time shadows

CERN Document Server

Eisemann, Elmar; Assarsson, Ulf; Wimmer, Michael

2011-01-01

Important elements of games, movies, and other computer-generated content, shadows are crucial for enhancing realism and providing important visual cues. In recent years, there have been notable improvements in visual quality and speed, making high-quality realistic real-time shadows a reachable goal. Real-Time Shadows is a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of real-time shadow techniques. It covers a large variety of different effects, including hard, soft, volumetric, and semi-transparent shadows.The book explains the basics as well as many advanced aspects related to the domain

Characteristic times in the English Channel from numerical modelling: supporting decision-making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perianez, R [Departamento de Fisica Aplicada 1, Universidad de Sevilla, EUITA, Carretera Utrera km 1, 41013 Sevilla (Spain); Miro, C [Departamento de Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad de Extremadura, Avenida de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)], E-mail: rperianez@us.es, E-mail: cmiro@unex.es

2009-06-15

A numerical model that simulates the dispersion of radionuclides in the English Channel has been applied to study the dispersion of conservative and non-conservative radionuclides released from the La Hague nuclear fuel reprocessing plant. The model is based upon previous work and now is able to simulate dispersion over long timescales (decades), explicitly including transport by instantaneous tidal currents and variable wind conditions. Wind conditions are obtained from meteorological statistics using a stochastic method. Outputs from the model are treated using time-series analysis techniques. These techniques allow the determination of characteristic times of the system, transport velocities and dispersion factors. This information may be very useful to support the decision-making process after an emergency situation. Thus, we are proposing that time-series analysis can be integrated with numerical modelling for helping decision-making in response to an accident. The model is first validated through its application to actual releases of {sup 99}Tc and {sup 125}Sb, comparing measured and computed concentrations, and characteristic times for three radionuclides are given next: a perfectly conservative one, a very reactive one ({sup 239,240}Pu) and {sup 137}Cs, which has an intermediate behaviour. Characteristic transport velocities and dispersion factors have been calculated as well. Model results are supported by experimental evidence.

Examining Decision-Making Regarding Environmental Information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marble, Julie Lynne; Medema, Heather Dawne; Hill, Susan Gardiner

2001-10-01

Eight participants were asked to view a computer-based multimedia presentation on an environmental phenomenon. Participants were asked to play a role as a senior aide to a national legislator. In this role, they were told that the legislator had asked them to review a multimedia presentation regarding the hypoxic zone phenomenon in the Gulf of Mexico. Their task in assuming the role of a senior aide was to decide how important a problem this issue was to the United States as a whole, and the proportion of the legislator’s research budget that should be devoted to study of the problem. The presentation was divided into 7 segments, each containing some new information not contained in the previous segments. After viewing each segment, participants were asked to indicate how close they were to making a decision and how certain they were that their current opinion would be their final decision. After indicating their current state of decision-making, participants were interviewed regarding the factors affecting their decision-making. Of interest was the process by which participants moved toward a decision. This experiment revealed a number of possible directions for future research. There appeared to be two approaches to decision-making: Some decision-makers moved steadily toward a decision, and occasionally reversed decisions after viewing information, while others abruptly reached a decision after a certain time period spent reviewing the information. Although the difference in estimates of distance to decisions did not differ statistically for these two groups, that difference was reflected in the participants’ estimates of confidence that their current opinion would be their final decision. The interviews revealed that the primary difference between these two groups was in their trade-offs between willingness to spend time in information search and the acquisition of new information. Participants who were less confident about their final decision, tended to be

A Pro-active Real-time Forecasting and Decision Support System for Daily Management of Marine Works

Science.gov (United States)

Bollen, Mark; Leyssen, Gert; Smets, Steven; De Wachter, Tom

2016-04-01

this toolbox in real-time situations and facilitate forecasting of impacts of planned dredge works, the following operational online functionalities are implemented: • Automated fetch and preparation of the input data, including 7 day forecast wind and wave fields and real-time measurements, and user defined the turbidity inputs based on scheduled marine works. • Generate automated forecasts and running user configurable scenarios at the same time in parallel. • Export and convert the model results, time series and maps, into a standardized format (netcdf). • Automatic analysis and processing of model results, including the calculation of indicator turbidity values and the exceedance analysis of threshold levels at the different sensitive areas. Data assimilation with the real time on site turbidity measurements is implemented in this threshold analysis. • Pre-programmed generation of animated sediment plumes, specific charts and pdf reports to allow a rapid interpretation of the model results by the operators and facilitating decision making in the operational planning. The performed marine works, resulting from the marine work schedule proposed by the forecasting system, are evaluated by a threshold analysis on the validated turbidity measurements on the sensitive sites. This machine learning loop allows a check of the system in order to evaluate forecast and model uncertainties.

A brief history of decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchanan, Leigh; O'Connell, Andrew

2006-01-01

Sometime around the middle of the past century, telephone executive Chester Barnard imported the term decision making from public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower terms, like "resource allocation" and "policy making," shifting the way managers thought about their role from continuous, Hamlet-like deliberation toward a crisp series of conclusions reached and actions taken. Yet, decision making is, of course, a broad and ancient human pursuit, flowing back to a time when people sought guidance from the stars. From those earliest days, we have strived to invent better tools for the purpose, from the Hindu-Arabic systems for numbering and algebra, to Aristotle's systematic empiricism, to friar Occam's advances in logic, to Francis Bacon's inductive reasoning, to Descartes's application of the scientific method. A growing sophistication with managing risk, along with a nuanced understanding of human behavior and advances in technology that support and mimic cognitive processes, has improved decision making in many situations. Even so, the history of decision-making strategies--captured in this time line and examined in the four accompanying essays on risk, group dynamics, technology, and instinct--has not marched steadily toward perfect rationalism. Twentieth-century theorists showed that the costs of acquiring information lead executives to make do with only good-enough decisions. Worse, people decide against their own economic interests even when they know better. And in the absence of emotion, it's impossible to make any decisions at all. Erroneous framing, bounded awareness, excessive optimism: The debunking of Descartes's rational man threatens to swamp our confidence in our choices. Is it really surprising, then, that even as technology dramatically increases our access to information, Malcolm Gladwell extols the virtues of gut decisions made, literally, in the blink of an eye?

Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons.

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, Johannes; Lengyel, Máté

2016-02-03

Behavioral and neuroscientific data on reward-based decision making point to a fundamental distinction between habitual and goal-directed action selection. The formation of habits, which requires simple updating of cached values, has been studied in great detail, and the reward prediction error theory of dopamine function has enjoyed prominent success in accounting for its neural bases. In contrast, the neural circuit mechanisms of goal-directed decision making, requiring extended iterative computations to estimate values online, are still unknown. Here we present a spiking neural network that provably solves the difficult online value estimation problem underlying goal-directed decision making in a near-optimal way and reproduces behavioral as well as neurophysiological experimental data on tasks ranging from simple binary choice to sequential decision making. Our model uses local plasticity rules to learn the synaptic weights of a simple neural network to achieve optimal performance and solves one-step decision-making tasks, commonly considered in neuroeconomics, as well as more challenging sequential decision-making tasks within 1 s. These decision times, and their parametric dependence on task parameters, as well as the final choice probabilities match behavioral data, whereas the evolution of neural activities in the network closely mimics neural responses recorded in frontal cortices during the execution of such tasks. Our theory provides a principled framework to understand the neural underpinning of goal-directed decision making and makes novel predictions for sequential decision-making tasks with multiple rewards. Goal-directed actions requiring prospective planning pervade decision making, but their circuit-level mechanisms remain elusive. We show how a model circuit of biologically realistic spiking neurons can solve this computationally challenging problem in a novel way. The synaptic weights of our network can be learned using local plasticity rules

Markov decision processes: a tool for sequential decision making under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Alagoz, Oguzhan; Hsu, Heather; Schaefer, Andrew J; Roberts, Mark S

2010-01-01

We provide a tutorial on the construction and evaluation of Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are powerful analytical tools used for sequential decision making under uncertainty that have been widely used in many industrial and manufacturing applications but are underutilized in medical decision making (MDM). We demonstrate the use of an MDP to solve a sequential clinical treatment problem under uncertainty. Markov decision processes generalize standard Markov models in that a decision process is embedded in the model and multiple decisions are made over time. Furthermore, they have significant advantages over standard decision analysis. We compare MDPs to standard Markov-based simulation models by solving the problem of the optimal timing of living-donor liver transplantation using both methods. Both models result in the same optimal transplantation policy and the same total life expectancies for the same patient and living donor. The computation time for solving the MDP model is significantly smaller than that for solving the Markov model. We briefly describe the growing literature of MDPs applied to medical decisions.

Heuristic decision making in medicine

Science.gov (United States)

Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-01-01

Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307

Heuristic decision making in medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Marewski, Julian N; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-03-01

Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care.

Towards Real-Time Distributed Planning in Multi-Robot Systems

KAUST Repository

Abdelkader, Mohamed

2018-04-01

Recently, there has been an increasing interest in robotics related to multi-robot applications. Such systems can be involved in several tasks such as collaborative search and rescue, aerial transportation, surveillance, and monitoring, to name a few. There are two possible architectures for the autonomous control of multi-robot systems. In the centralized architecture, a master controller communicates with all the robots to collect information. It uses this information to make decisions for the entire system and then sends commands to each robot. In contrast, in the distributed architecture, each robot makes its own decision independent from a central authority. While distributed architecture is a more portable solution, it comes at the expense of extensive information exchange (communication). The extensive communication between robots can result in decision delays because of which distributed architecture is often impractical for systems with strict real-time constraints, e.g. when decisions have to be taken in the order of milliseconds. In this thesis, we propose a distributed framework that strikes a balance between limited communicated information and reasonable system-wide performance while running in real-time. We implement the proposed approach in a game setting of two competing teams of drones, defenders and attackers. Defending drones execute a proposed linear program algorithm (using only onboard computing modules) to obstruct attackers from infiltrating a defense zone while having minimal local message passing. Another main contribution is that we developed a realistic simulation environment as well as lab and outdoor hardware setups of customized drones for testing the system in realistic scenarios. Our software is completely open-source and fully integrated with the well-known Robot Operating System (ROS) in hopes to make our work easily reproducible and for rapid future improvements.

A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

2017-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress); (2) executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control); (3) intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4) economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference), with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

Framing of task performance strategies: effects on performance in a multiattribute dynamic decision making environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Nygren, T E

1997-09-01

It is well documented that the way a static choice task is "framed" can dramatically alter choice behavior, often leading to observable preference reversals. This framing effect appears to result from perceived changes in the nature or location of a person's initial reference point, but it is not clear how framing effects might generalize to performance on dynamic decision making tasks that are characterized by high workload, time constraints, risk, or stress. A study was conducted to examine the hypothesis that framing can introduce affective components to the decision making process and can influence, either favorably (positive frame) or adversely (negative frame), the implementation and use of decision making strategies in dynamic high-workload environments. Results indicated that negative frame participants were significantly impaired in developing and employing a simple optimal decision strategy relative to a positive frame group. Discussion focuses on implications of these results for models of dynamic decision making.

Decision making and cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Reyna, Valerie F; Nelson, Wendy L; Han, Paul K; Pignone, Michael P

2015-01-01

We review decision making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Emotion, decision-making and the brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Luke J; Sanfey, Alan G

2008-01-01

Initial explorations in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics have highlighted evidence supporting a potential dissociation between a fast automatic system and a slow deliberative controlled system. Growing research in the role of emotion in decision-making has attempted to draw parallels to the automatic system. This chapter will discuss a theoretical framework for understanding the role of emotion in decision-making and evidence supporting the underlying neural substrates. This chapter applies a conceptual framework to understanding the role of emotion in decision-making, and emphasizes a distinction between expected and immediate emotions. Expected emotions refer to anticipated emotional states associated with a given decision that are never actually experienced. Immediate emotions, however, are experienced at the time of decision, and either can occur in response to a particular decision or merely as a result of a transitory fluctuation. This chapter will review research from the neuroeconomics literature that supports a neural dissociation between these two classes of emotion and also discuss a few interpretive caveats. Several lines of research including regret, uncertainty, social decision-making, and moral decision-making have yielded evidence consistent with our formulization--expected and immediate emotions may invoke dissociable neural systems. This chapter provides a more specific conceptualization of the mediating role of emotions in the decision-making process, which has important implications for understanding the interacting neural systems underlying the interface between emotion and cognition--a topic of immediate value to anyone investigating topics within the context of social-cognitive-affective-neuroscience.

An intelligent, knowledge-based multiple criteria decision making advisor for systems design

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yongchang

of an appropriate decision making method. Furthermore, some DMs may be exclusively using one or two specific methods which they are familiar with or trust and not realizing that they may be inappropriate to handle certain classes of the problems, thus yielding erroneous results. These issues reveal that in order to ensure a good decision a suitable decision method should be chosen before the decision making process proceeds. The first part of this dissertation proposes an MCDM process supported by an intelligent, knowledge-based advisor system referred to as Multi-Criteria Interactive Decision-Making Advisor and Synthesis process (MIDAS), which is able to facilitate the selection of the most appropriate decision making method and which provides insight to the user for fulfilling different preferences. The second part of this dissertation presents an autonomous decision making advisor which is capable of dealing with ever-evolving real time information and making autonomous decisions under uncertain conditions. The advisor encompasses a Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation which takes uncertainty into account when determines the best action for each system state. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Multiresource allocation and scheduling for periodic soft real-time applications

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalan, Kartik; Chiueh, Tzi-cker

2001-12-01

Real-time applications that utilize multiple system resources, such as CPU, disks, and network links, require coordinated scheduling of these resources in order to meet their end-to-end performance requirements. Most state-of-the-art operating systems support independent resource allocation and deadline-driven scheduling but lack coordination among multiple heterogeneous resources. This paper describes the design and implementation of an Integrated Real-time Resource Scheduler (IRS) that performs coordinated allocation and scheduling of multiple heterogeneous resources on the same machine for periodic soft real-time application. The principal feature of IRS is a heuristic multi-resource allocation algorithm that reserves multiple resources for real-time applications in a manner that can maximize the number of applications admitted into the system in the long run. At run-time, a global scheduler dispatches the tasks of the soft real-time application to individual resource schedulers according to the precedence constraints between tasks. The individual resource schedulers, which could be any deadline based schedulers, can make scheduling decisions locally and yet collectively satisfy a real-time application's performance requirements. The tightness of overall timing guarantees is ultimately determined by the properties of individual resource schedulers. However, IRS maximizes overall system resource utilization efficiency by coordinating deadline assignment across multiple tasks in a soft real-time application.

The Level of Automation in Emergency Quick Disconnect Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Imset Marius

2018-02-01

Full Text Available As a key measure for safety and environmental protection during offshore well operations, drill rigs are equipped with Emergency Quick Disconnect (EQD systems. However, an EQD operation is in itself considered a risky operation with a major economic impact. For this reason, it is of great importance to aid the operators in their assessment of the situation at all times, and help them make the best decisions. However, despite the availability of such systems, accidents do happen. This demonstrates the vulnerability of our human decision-making capabilities in extremely stressful situations. One way of improving the overall human-system performance with respect to EQD is to increase the level and quality of the automation and decision support systems. Although there is plenty of evidence that automated systems have weaknesses, there is also evidence that advanced software systems outperform humans in complex decision-making. The major challenge is to make sure that EQD is performed when necessary, but there is also a need to decrease the number of false EQDs. This paper applies an existing framework for levels of automation in order to explore the critical decision process leading to an EQD. We provide an overview of the benefits and drawbacks of existing automation and decision support systems vs. manual human decision-making. Data are collected from interviews of offshore users, suppliers, and oil companies, as well as from formal operational procedures. Findings are discussed using an established framework for the level of automation. Our conclusion is that there is an appropriate level of automation in critical situations related to the loss of the position of the drill rig, and that there is the promising potential to increase the autonomy level in a mid- and long-term situation assessment.

The Re-contextualization of the Patient: What Home Health Care Can Teach Us About Medical Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Salter, Erica K

2015-06-01

This article examines the role of context in the development and deployment of standards of medical decision-making. First, it demonstrates that bioethics, and our dominant standards of medical decision-making, developed out of a specific historical and philosophical environment that prioritized technology over the person, standardization over particularity, individuality over relationship and rationality over other forms of knowing. These forces de-contextualize the patient and encourage decision-making that conforms to the unnatural and contrived environment of the hospital. The article then explores several important differences between the home health care and acute care settings. Finally, it argues that the personalized, embedded, relational and idiosyncratic nature of the home is actually a much more accurate reflection of the context in which real people make real decisions. Thus, we should work to "re-contextualize" patients, in order that they might be better equipped to make decisions that harmonize with their real lives.

Real Time Investments with Adequate Portfolio Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Kvietkauskienė

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to identify investment decision makingschemes using the adequate portfolio model. This approach can be employed to project investment in stocks, using the opportunities offered by the markets and investor intelligence. It was decided to use adequate portfolio theory for investment decision making, simulation of financial markets, and optimisation of utility function. The main conclusion of article suggests investigating return on individual portfolio level. Real investment is a way to make sure of the soundness of applicable strategies.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-01

A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

EU-funded initiatives for real world evidence: descriptive analysis of their characteristics and relevance for regulatory decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Plueschke, Kelly; McGettigan, Patricia; Pacurariu, Alexandra; Kurz, Xavier; Cave, Alison

2018-06-14

A review of European Union (EU)-funded initiatives linked to 'Real World Evidence' (RWE) was performed to determine whether their outputs could be used for the generation of real-world data able to support the European Medicines Agency (EMA)'s regulatory decision-making on medicines. The initiatives were identified from publicly available websites. Their topics were categorised into five areas: 'Data source', 'Methodology', 'Governance model', 'Analytical model' and 'Infrastructure'. To assess their immediate relevance for medicines evaluation, their therapeutic areas were compared with the products recommended for EU approval in 2016 and those included in the EMA pharmaceutical business pipeline. Of 171 originally identified EU-funded initiatives, 65 were selected based on their primary and secondary objectives (35 'Data source' initiatives, 15 'Methodology', 10 'Governance model', 17 'Analytical model' and 25 'Infrastructure'). These 65 initiatives received over 734 million Euros of public funding. At the time of evaluation, the published outputs of the 40 completed initiatives did not always match their original objectives. Overall, public information was limited, data access was not explicit and their sustainability was unclear. The topics matched 8 of 14 therapeutic areas of the products recommended for approval in 2016 and 8 of 15 therapeutic areas in the 2017-2019 pharmaceutical business pipeline. Haematology, gastroenterology or cardiovascular systems were poorly represented. This landscape of EU-funded initiatives linked to RWE which started before 31 December 2016 highlighted that the immediate utilisation of their outputs to support regulatory decision-making is limited, often due to insufficient available information and to discrepancies between outputs and objectives. Furthermore, the restricted sustainability of the initiatives impacts on their downstream utility. Multiple projects focussing on the same therapeutic areas increase the likelihood of

A Framework for Making Sustainable Cleanup Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piet, Steven James; Dettmers, Dana Lee; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Eide, Steven Arvid; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Oswald, Kyle Blaine; Reisenauer, John Phillip

2002-08-01

The effects of closure decisions for used nuclear facilities can extend centuries into the future. Yet, the longevity of decisions made over the past half century has been poor. Our goal is an improved decision framework for decommissioning, stewardship, and waste management. This paper describes our overall framework. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions1 and implications for a class of intractable decision problems.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. Our approach clarifies what is needed to make and keep decisions over relevant time periods. The process guides participants through establishing the real problem, understanding the universes of knowledge, values, resources, and generating alternatives. We explore three classes of alternatives – reusable (e.g. greenfield), closed (e.g. entombed structures), and adaptable. After testing for konvergence of alternatives among knowledge, values, resources, we offer suggestions to diagnose divergence, to reduce divergence by refining alternatives to address identified weaknesses, and to plan to keep konvergence over the life of the decision. We believe that decisions made via this method will better stand the test of time – because it will be either acceptable to keep them unchanged or possible to adapt them as knowledge, values, and resources change.

Goal Setting and Decision Making by At-Risk Youth

Science.gov (United States)

Galotti, Kathleen M.; Kozberg, Steven F.; Gustafon, Mary

2009-01-01

Typically, adolescence is a time when individuals begin to make consequential, life-framing decisions. However, much of the decision-making literature focuses on high-risk decisions, such as the use of drugs and alcohol, while much less is known about how adolescents make positive decisions, for example, regarding their educational or career…

A nuclear decision support system built with a real-time process control AI shell

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nevins, M.A.

1990-01-01

Managing large nuclear power plants is generally approached by creating separate management teams to handle major functional areas such as operations, maintenance, training and engineering. While this approach facilitates a general understanding of the specific functions and problem areas of a nuclear plant, such broad definitions diminish the integration of information needed to understand the overall problem domain. One solution utilizes a decision support system that integrates a real-time process control AI shell, relational database manager, graphic depiction of the real-time events, and distributed knowledge bases that reside within each of the departments. The goal is to create a living model between plant components, procedures, tech specs, specific functions, maintenance and training requirements. This paper describes such a model, called Engineering Model and Simulation System (EMASS)

Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

2003-02-01

Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

Decision-making around moving on from full-time education: the roles and experiences of parents of disabled young people with degenerative conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Maddison, Jane; Beresford, Bryony

2012-09-01

Little is known about the decision-making processes that take place within families when a disabled young person is moving on from full-time education and, particularly, parents' roles and experiences. This paper reports the analysis of data collected from a subsample of parents (representing seventeen families) participating in the Choice and Change Project who had discussed choices associated with their child leaving full-time education. (The Choice and Change Project is a longitudinal, qualitative study of choice-making by four different groups of service users including disabled young people with degenerative conditions and their parents.) The data were collected from parents during up to three semi-structured interviews conducted over a thirty-month period. Descriptive theories of decision-making informed the analysis. Parents differed in the extent to which they were actively involved in making choices about the 'destination' of their child after leaving full-time education. To some extent, the ability of the young person to make choices themselves influenced this. Parents who were assuming responsibility for making choices stressed the importance of having relevant information and felt professionals had a key role to play in supporting access to information. Parents used a number of criteria to guide their choice-making, including distance from home, perceived quality of the environment and staff and the young person's responses to the setting. Much of the information needed to make a choice required a visit to all the possible options. Ensuring such visits were positive and useful experiences for themselves and their child could be very difficult; support to achieve these visits was highly valued but not routinely provided. The study also highlights the lack of recognition given to the significant amount of work that many parents undertake to ensure that a choice is realised, and also to the emotional journey parents take when making or assisting in such

Comparing perceptual and preferential decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Dutilh, Gilles; Rieskamp, Jörg

2016-06-01

Perceptual and preferential decision making have been studied largely in isolation. Perceptual decisions are considered to be at a non-deliberative cognitive level and have an outside criterion that defines the quality of decisions. Preferential decisions are considered to be at a higher cognitive level and the quality of decisions depend on the decision maker's subjective goals. Besides these crucial differences, both types of decisions also have in common that uncertain information about the choice situation has to be processed before a decision can be made. The present work aims to acknowledge the commonalities of both types of decision making to lay bare the crucial differences. For this aim we examine perceptual and preferential decisions with a novel choice paradigm that uses the identical stimulus material for both types of decisions. This paradigm allows us to model the decisions and response times of both types of decisions with the same sequential sampling model, the drift diffusion model. The results illustrate that the different incentive structure in both types of tasks changes people's behavior so that they process information more efficiently and respond more cautiously in the perceptual as compared to the preferential task. These findings set out a perspective for further integration of perceptual and preferential decision making in a single ramework.

Decision-making in state lotteries: half now or all of it later?

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Forest; Johnson, Matthew W; Bickel, Warren K

2003-12-01

Many state lotteries offer players a choice between receiving roughly half of the jackpot immediately and receiving the entire jackpot over 25 annual payments. This requires players to make a decision that involves uncertainty, delay, and large amounts of real money. Archival data on lottery players' jackpot payment decisions were collected from seven state and three multistate lotteries. Players' jackpot payment preferences were assessed at the time of ticket purchase and after winning a jackpot. Preference for the annuity payment option significantly decreased as jackpot size increased, both at the time of ticket purchase and after winning. Furthermore, a significant proportion of winners who selected the annuity payment option at ticket purchase switched to the cash payment option after winning, whereas no winners switched from the cash to the annuity option after winning. These findings suggest that real-world choices involving large sums of money may be subject to diminishing marginal utility and probability and delay discounting.

Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Jansen, Sophia C; Haveman-Nies, Annemien; Duijzer, Geerke; Ter Beek, Josien; Hiddink, Gerrit J; Feskens, Edith J M

2013-05-08

Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making process of intervention developers and local health care professionals. We used 3 adaptation steps in accordance with current adaptation frameworks. In the first step, the elements of the SLIM intervention were identified. In the second step, these elements were judged for their applicability in a real-life setting. In the third step, adaptations were proposed and discussed for those elements which were deemed not applicable. Participants invited for this process included intervention developers and local health care professionals (n=19). In the first adaptation step, a total of 22 intervention elements were identified. In the second step, 12 of these 22 intervention elements were judged as inapplicable. In the third step, a consensus was achieved for the adaptations of all 12 elements. The adapted elements were in the following categories: target population, techniques, intensity, delivery mode, materials, organisational structure, and political and financial conditions. The adaptations either lay in changing the SLIM protocol (6 elements) or the real-life working procedures (1 element), or a combination of both (4 elements). The positive result of this study is that a consensus was achieved within a relatively short time period (nine months) between the developers of the SLIM intervention and local health care professionals on the adaptations needed to make SLIM applicable in a Dutch real-life setting. Our example shows that it is possible to combine the perspectives of scientists and

Decision-making: Theory and practice

OpenAIRE

SM Turpin; MA Marais

2004-01-01

This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, ...

[Decision making in cariology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

2003-01-01

By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

The Relations between Decision Making in Social Relationships and Decision Making Styles

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, Enver

2008-01-01

The research reported in this paper aimed to examine the relationships between decisiveness in social relationships, and the decision-making styles of a group of university students and to investigate the contributions of decision-making styles in predicting decisiveness in social relationship (conflict resolution, social relationship selection…

Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eroğlu Başak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

Decision Making in Voluntary Career Change: An Other-Than-Rational Perspective

OpenAIRE

Murtagh, N.; Lopes, P. N.; Lyons, E.

2011-01-01

A qualitative study of voluntary career change highlighted the importance of positive emotions, unplanned action, and the construction of certainty and continuity in the realization of change. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was used to broaden theoretical understanding of real-life career decision making. The accounts of eight women who had changed careers were explored and the analysis supported other-than-rational perspectives of career decision making. An action-affect-cognition ...

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

2003-01-01

Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases

Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

2003-02-25

Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

Decision making and response inhibition as predictors of heavy alcohol use: a prospective study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goudriaan, Anna E.; Grekin, Emily R.; Sher, Kenneth J.

2011-01-01

Very few studies have investigated the "real world" prospective, predictive value of behavioral instruments used in laboratory studies to test decision-making abilities or impulse control. The current study examines the degree to which 2 commonly used decision-making/impulse control measures

Human factors issues in severe accident management: Training for decision-making under stress

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mumaw, R.J.; Roth, E.M.; Schoenfeld, I.

1994-01-01

Training for operator and other technical positions in the commercial nuclear power industry traditionally has focused on mastery of the formal procedures used to control plant systems and processes. However, there is a growing awareness that the decision-making tasks required for selecting appropriate control actions, in addition to guidance from formal procedures, also involve cognitive activities commonly referred to as judgment or reasoning. A project was completed to address the nature of the cognitive skills that may be important to decision-making in the nuclear power plant environment, especially during severe accident management. The project identified a model of decision-making that could account for both rule-based and knowledge-based decision-making and used it to identify cognitive skills for both individuals and operational crews. This analysis was then used to identify existing training techniques for cognitive skills and the general characteristics of successful training techniques

"Effects of Stress on Decisions Under Uncertainty: A Meta-Analysis": Correction to Starcke and Brand (2016).

Science.gov (United States)

2016-09-01

Reports an error in "Effects of Stress on Decisions Under Uncertainty: A Meta-Analysis" by Katrin Starcke and Matthias Brand ( Psychological Bulletin , Advanced Online Publication, May 23, 2016, np). It should have been reported that the inverted u-shaped relationship between cortisol stress responses and decision-making performance was only observed in female, but not in male participants as suggested by the study by van den Bos, Harteveld, and Stoop (2009). Corrected versions of the affected sentences are provided. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2016-25465-001.) The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to quantify the effects that stress has on decisions made under uncertainty. We hypothesized that stress increases reward seeking and risk taking through alterations of dopamine firing rates and reduces executive control by hindering optimal prefrontal cortex functioning. In certain decision situations, increased reward seeking and risk taking is dysfunctional, whereas in others, this is not the case. We also assumed that the type of stressor plays a role. In addition, moderating variables are analyzed, such as the hormonal stress response, the time between stress onset and decisions, and the participants' age and gender. We included studies in the meta-analysis that investigated decision making after a laboratory stress-induction versus a control condition (k = 32 datasets, N = 1829 participants). A random-effects model revealed that overall, stress conditions lead to decisions that can be described as more disadvantageous, more reward seeking, and more risk taking than nonstress conditions (d = .17). In those situations in which increased reward seeking and risk taking is disadvantageous, stress had significant effects (d = .26), whereas in other situations, no effects were observed (d = .01). Effects were observed under processive stressors (d = .19), but not under systemic ones (d = .09). Moderation analyses did not

[Interoception and decision-making].

Science.gov (United States)

Ohira, Hideki

2015-02-01

We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matúš Adamkovič

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1 cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress; (2 executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control; (3 intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4 economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference, with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

Managing uncertainty in multiple-criteria decision making related to sustainability assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dorini, Gianluca Fabio; Kapelan, Zoran; Azapagic, Adisa

2011-01-01

In real life, decisions are usually made by comparing different options with respect to several, often conflicting criteria. This requires subjective judgements on the importance of different criteria by DMs and increases uncertainty in decision making. This article demonstrates how uncertainty can......: (1) no uncertainty, (2) uncertainty in data/models and (3) uncertainty in models and decision-makers’ preferences. The results shows how characterising and propagating uncertainty can help increase the effectiveness of multi-criteria decision making processes and lead to more informed decision....... be handled in multi-criteria decision situations using Compromise Programming, one of the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Uncertainty is characterised using a probabilistic approach and propagated using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodological approach is illustrated...

Decision making in the digital age: the nuclear industry response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edelman, G. [Energy Group, Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. (Canada)

2002-07-01

Ten years ago, the consequences of a prolonged outage - or of choosing a costly alternative - could usually be recovered from the ratepayers without major difficulty. But today, as in the rest of industrial America, poorly crafted decisions have very real economic consequences. This paper discusses the decision making process within the nuclear industry in the age of industry deregulation.

Decision making in the digital age: the nuclear industry response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edelman, G.

2002-01-01

Ten years ago, the consequences of a prolonged outage - or of choosing a costly alternative - could usually be recovered from the ratepayers without major difficulty. But today, as in the rest of industrial America, poorly crafted decisions have very real economic consequences. This paper discusses the decision making process within the nuclear industry in the age of industry deregulation

Kinetics of the stress induced phase transition in quartz by real-time neutron scattering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibhardt, H.; Eckold, G.; Guethoff, F.

1999-01-01

Complete text of publication follows. The stability regime of the incommensurate phase of quartz is influenced by uniaxial stress. Hence, the phase transition can be induced under isothermal conditions by the application of external mechanical forces. Using real-time neutron scattering the time evolution of structural changes is investigated id detail during stress variations. The time dependent behaviour of the satellite reflection is compared with that one of the fundamental Bragg reflection which - via primary extinction - gives information about the perfection of the crystal. On increasing stress the perfection of the lattice is destroyed immediately while the modulated structure is built up with a delay of about 1 s. Decreasing the stress leads to a reverse behaviour. Moreover, there is evidence that under periodical load residual non-relaxed strain fields survive leading to a different temperature dependence as compared to static conditions. This finding is compatible with pronounced hysteresis effects observed under cycling stress. It is argued that these residual strains are associated with non-relaxed topological 4-line defects, that drive the structural changes in quartz (1). (author)

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

An extended data envelopment analysis for the decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Li Meng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Based on the CCR model, we propose an extended data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with historical input and output data. The contributions of the work are threefold. First, the input and output data of the evaluated decision making unit are variable over time, and time series method is used to analyze and predict the data. Second, there are many sample decision making units, which are divided into several ordered sample standards in terms of production strategy, and the constraint condition consists of one of the sample standards. Furthermore, the efficiency is illustrated by considering the efficiency relationship between the evaluated decision making unit and sample decision making units from constraint condition. Third, to reduce the computation complexity, we introduce an algorithm based on the binary search tree in the model to choose the sample standard that has similar behavior with the evaluated decision making unit. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model.

The emergency patient's participation in medical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Li-Hsiang; Goopy, Suzanne; Lin, Chun-Chih; Barnard, Alan; Han, Chin-Yen; Liu, Hsueh-Erh

2016-09-01

The purpose of this research was to explore the medical decision-making processes of patients in emergency departments. Studies indicate that patients should be given enough time to acquire relevant information and receive adequate support when they need to make medical decisions. It is difficult to satisfy these requirements in emergency situations. Limited research has addressed the topic of decision-making among emergency patients. This qualitative study used a broadly defined grounded theory approach to explore decision-making in an emergency department in Taiwan. Thirty emergency patients were recruited between June and December 2011 for semi-structured interviews that were audio-taped and transcribed verbatim. The study identified three stages in medical decision-making by emergency patients: predecision (interpreting the problem); decision (a balancing act) and postdecision (reclaiming the self). Transference was identified as the core category and pattern of behaviour through which patients resolved their main concerns. This transference around decision-making represents a type of bricolage. The findings fill a gap in knowledge about the decision-making process among emergency patients. The results inform emergency professionals seeking to support patients faced with complex medical decision-making and suggest an emphasis on informed patient decision-making, advocacy, patient-centred care and in-service education of health staff. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

20 CFR 411.205 - What if I disagree with the PM's decision about whether I am making timely progress toward self...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

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Managerial competences as a strategic element in the decision-making of Real Estate Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto Fecchio

2012-04-01

Full Text Available A real estate plan works when is a part of a wider project which regards the society needs in a certain place. To know where to invest and the risk/performance profile, it is necessary to know the profit and loss profile of the building in the future, in addition to building costs. A correct real estate valuation does not exist if upstream a deep knowledge of real estate, financial, statistical, investors’ psychology (science or knowledge cycles, as well as an experience of years do not exist, which allows to acquire sensibility even towards unpredictable events. The dynamic real estate management is the necessary tool to increase the recurring revenue, the capital gain, to improve cash, decrease risks. The real estate manager, consisting in a team with integrated skills, with “on field” experience, with business logical knowledge, with roots on territory, able to share the business risk, with knowledge of public administrations’ procedures and complexity, is able to support the real estate investor in the development procedure. The evolution of the decision process must follow the trend that since 2009 has seen the overcoming of redevelopment projects compared to new building projects, with higher costs and complexity, but more sustainable from the environmental and space rationalization point of view. Redevelopment processes will be framed in complex territorial development projects, with guarantees of transparency of administrative processes and times, in order to attract international funds, that today are prevented to operate due to great uncertainty of the administrative process management in Italy.

Varenna workshop report. Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Warner Marzocchi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A workshop on Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making was convened in Varenna, Italy, on June 8-11, 2014, under the sponsorship of the EU FP 7 REAKT (Strategies and tools for Real-time EArthquake risK reducTion project, the Seismic Hazard Center at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC. The main goal was to survey the interdisciplinary issues of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF, including the problems that OEF raises for decision making and risk communication. The workshop was attended by 64 researchers from universities, research centers, and governmental institutions in 11 countries. Participants and the workshop agenda are listed in the appendix.The workshop comprised six topical sessions structured around three main themes: the science of operational earthquake forecasting, decision making in a low-probability environment, and communicating hazard and risk. Each topic was introduced by a moderator and surveyed by a few invited speakers, who were then empaneled for an open discussion. The presentations were followed by poster sessions. During a wrap-up session on the last day, the reporters for each topical session summarized the main points that they had gleaned from the talks and open discussions. This report attempts to distill this workshop record into a brief overview of the workshop themes and to describe the range of opinions expressed during the discussions.

Organizational decision making

OpenAIRE

Grandori, Anna

2015-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis develops a heuristic approach to organizational decision-making by synthesizing the classical, neo-classical and contingency approaches to organization theory. The conceptual framework developed also integrates the rational and cybernetic approaches with cognitive processes underlying the decision-making process. The components of the approach address the role of environment in organizational decision-maki...

Teachers' Grading Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

2017-01-01

This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

Real-time data for estimating a forward-looking interest rate rule of the ECB.

Science.gov (United States)

Bletzinger, Tilman; Wieland, Volker

2017-12-01

The purpose of the data presented in this article is to use it in ex post estimations of interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB), as it is done by Bletzinger and Wieland (2017) [1]. The data is of quarterly frequency from 1999 Q1 until 2013 Q2 and consists of the ECB's policy rate, inflation rate, real output growth and potential output growth in the euro area. To account for forward-looking decision making in the interest rate rule, the data consists of expectations about future inflation and output dynamics. While potential output is constructed based on data from the European Commission's annual macro-economic database, inflation and real output growth are taken from two different sources both provided by the ECB: the Survey of Professional Forecasters and projections made by ECB staff. Careful attention was given to the publication date of the collected data to ensure a real-time dataset only consisting of information which was available to the decision makers at the time of the decision.

Connecting real-time data to algorithms and databases: EarthCube's Cloud-Hosted Real-time Data Services for the Geosciences (CHORDS)

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Daniels, M. D.; Graves, S. J.; Kerkez, B.; Chandrasekar, V.; Vernon, F.; Martin, C. L.; Maskey, M.; Keiser, K.; Dye, M. J.

2015-12-01

The Cloud-Hosted Real-time Data Services for the Geosciences (CHORDS) project was funded under the National Science Foundation's EarthCube initiative. CHORDS addresses the ever-increasing importance of real-time scientific data in the geosciences, particularly in mission critical scenarios, where informed decisions must be made rapidly. Access to constant streams of real-time data also allow many new transient phenomena in space-time to be observed, however, much of these streaming data are either completely inaccessible or only available to proprietary in-house tools or displays. Small research teams do not have the resources to develop tools for the broad dissemination of their unique real-time data and require an easy to use, scalable, cloud-based solution to facilitate this access. CHORDS will make these diverse streams of real-time data available to the broader geosciences community. This talk will highlight a recently developed CHORDS portal tools and processing systems which address some of the gaps in handling real-time data, particularly in the provisioning of data from the "long-tail" scientific community through a simple interface that is deployed in the cloud, is scalable and is able to be customized by research teams. A running portal, with operational data feeds from across the nation, will be presented. The processing within the CHORDS system will expose these real-time streams via standard services from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) in a way that is simple and transparent to the data provider, while maximizing the usage of these investments. The ingestion of high velocity, high volume and diverse data has allowed the project to explore a NoSQL database implementation. Broad use of the CHORDS framework by geoscientists will help to facilitate adaptive experimentation, model assimilation and real-time hypothesis testing.

Real-time support for precision excavation of radionuclide-contaminated soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durham, L. A.; Johnson, R. L.

2003-01-01

Traditional approaches to excavation design for sites with radionuclide-contaminated soils generally involve work plans with fixed excavation footprints and post-excavation verification sampling. Recent advancements in real-time data collection systems, combined with data loggers, location control systems, and secure project-support Web sites, allow for an alternative, more precise approach to excavation design and implementation. In this mode, traditional work plans are replaced with dynamic work plans. Excavation efforts are organized by lift, with real-time dig face screening performed and the data for each lift analyzed, before excavation continues. Rather than specifying excavation footprints, dynamic work plans identify the decision logic that will be used to determine footprints based on real-time data collection. The level of investment in excavation support data collection can be balanced against potential cost savings realized through waste stream minimization. Secure project support Web sites ensure that data sets generated during the remediation process are readily accessible to all who need to see them, whether they are on site or not. These include regulators, program managers, and technical support staff. This type of Web site allows for quick problem resolution, increased transparency in field decision making, and more efficient allocation of expensive technical staff time

A Training Method to Improve Police Use of Force Decision Making

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Judith P. Andersen

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Police safety and use of force decisions during critical incidents are an ongoing source of concern for both police practitioners and the public. Prior research in the area of police performance reveals that psychological and physiological stress responses during critical incidents can shape the outcome of the incident, either positively or negatively. The goal of this study was to test a training method to improve use of force decision making among police. This randomized controlled pilot study consisted of training officers to apply techniques to enhance psychological and physiological control during stressful critical incidents. Of a pool of 80 police officers, potential participants were invited based on equivalent age, years of experience, physiological characteristics (i.e., body mass index [BMI] and cardiovascular reactivity, and expertise. Results revealed that the intervention group displayed significantly better physiological control, situational awareness, and overall performance, and made a greater number of correct use of force decisions than officers in the control group (all ps < .01. The relevant improvements in use of force decision-making found in this pilot study indicate that this training method warrants further investigation. Improved use of force decision making directly translates into potential lifesaving decisions for police and the civilians they are working with.

AI based HealthCare Platform for Real Time, Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics using Reactive Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Kaur, Jagreet; Singh Mann, Kulwinder, Dr.

2018-01-01

AI in Healthcare needed to bring real, actionable insights and Individualized insights in real time for patients and Doctors to support treatment decisions., We need a Patient Centred Platform for integrating EHR Data, Patient Data, Prescriptions, Monitoring, Clinical research and Data. This paper proposes a generic architecture for enabling AI based healthcare analytics Platform by using open sources Technologies Apache beam, Apache Flink Apache Spark, Apache NiFi, Kafka, Tachyon, Gluster FS, NoSQL- Elasticsearch, Cassandra. This paper will show the importance of applying AI based predictive and prescriptive analytics techniques in Health sector. The system will be able to extract useful knowledge that helps in decision making and medical monitoring in real-time through an intelligent process analysis and big data processing.

Real-time WAMI streaming target tracking in fog

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu; Blasch, Erik; Chen, Ning; Deng, Anna; Ling, Haibin; Chen, Genshe

2016-05-01

Real-time information fusion based on WAMI (Wide-Area Motion Imagery), FMV (Full Motion Video), and Text data is highly desired for many mission critical emergency or security applications. Cloud Computing has been considered promising to achieve big data integration from multi-modal sources. In many mission critical tasks, however, powerful Cloud technology cannot satisfy the tight latency tolerance as the servers are allocated far from the sensing platform, actually there is no guaranteed connection in the emergency situations. Therefore, data processing, information fusion, and decision making are required to be executed on-site (i.e., near the data collection). Fog Computing, a recently proposed extension and complement for Cloud Computing, enables computing on-site without outsourcing jobs to a remote Cloud. In this work, we have investigated the feasibility of processing streaming WAMI in the Fog for real-time, online, uninterrupted target tracking. Using a single target tracking algorithm, we studied the performance of a Fog Computing prototype. The experimental results are very encouraging that validated the effectiveness of our Fog approach to achieve real-time frame rates.

Intuition and Moral Decision-Making – The Effect of Time Pressure and Cognitive Load on Moral Judgment and Altruistic Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Bonn, Caroline; Johannesson, Magnus; Kirchler, Michael; Koppel, Lina; Västfjäll, Daniel

2016-01-01

Do individuals intuitively favor certain moral actions over others? This study explores the role of intuitive thinking—induced by time pressure and cognitive load—in moral judgment and behavior. We conduct experiments in three different countries (Sweden, Austria, and the United States) involving over 1,400 subjects. All subjects responded to four trolley type dilemmas and four dictator games involving different charitable causes. Decisions were made under time pressure/time delay or while experiencing cognitive load or control. Overall we find converging evidence that intuitive states do not influence moral decisions. Neither time-pressure nor cognitive load had any effect on moral judgments or altruistic behavior. Thus we find no supporting evidence for the claim that intuitive moral judgments and dictator game giving differ from more reflectively taken decisions. Across all samples and decision tasks men were more likely to make utilitarian moral judgments and act selfishly compared to women, providing further evidence that there are robust gender differences in moral decision-making. However, there were no significant interactions between gender and the treatment manipulations of intuitive versus reflective decision-making. PMID:27783704

Real-time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided By Economic Regimes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W. Ketter (Wolfgang); J. Collins (John); M. Gini (Maria); A. Gupta (Alok); P. Schrater (Paul)

2011-01-01

textabstractMany enterprises that participate in dynamic markets need to make product pricing and inventory resource utilization decisions in real-time. We describe a family of statistical models that address these needs by combining characterization of the economic environment with the ability to

Real-Time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided by Economic Regimes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W. Ketter (Wolfgang); J. Collins (John); M. Gini (Maria); A. Gupta (Alok); P. Schrater (Paul)

2012-01-01

textabstractMany enterprises that participate in dynamic markets need to make product pricing and inventory resource utilization decisions in real time. We describe a family of statistical models that addresses these needs by combining characterization of the economic environment with the ability to

Decision-making: Theory and practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SM Turpin

2004-12-01

Full Text Available This paper compares a number of theoretical models of decision-making with the way in which senior managers make decisions in practice. Six prominent decision-makers were interviewed about their own decision-making style, as well as their use of decision support technology. Significant variation was found in personal decision-making styles. However, some central themes emerged, such as the importance of sensitivity to the decision-making context, attention to the presentation of information, and the use of intuition. In terms of the use of decision support technology, the use of self-help tools, such as office software, was clearly favoured.

ClockWork: a Real-Time Feasibility Analysis Tool

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, P.G.; Hanssen, F.T.Y.; Mullender, Sape J.

ClockWork shows that we can improve the flexibility and efficiency of real-time kernels. We do this by proposing methods for scheduling based on so-called Real-Time Transactions. ClockWork uses Real-Time Transactions which allow scheduling decisions to be taken by the system. A programmer does not

Enabling Real-time Water Decision Support Services Using Model as a Service

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, T.; Minsker, B. S.; Lee, J. S.; Salas, F. R.; Maidment, D. R.; David, C. H.

2014-12-01

Through application of computational methods and an integrated information system, data and river modeling services can help researchers and decision makers more rapidly understand river conditions under alternative scenarios. To enable this capability, workflows (i.e., analysis and model steps) are created and published as Web services delivered through an internet browser, including model inputs, a published workflow service, and visualized outputs. The RAPID model, which is a river routing model developed at University of Texas Austin for parallel computation of river discharge, has been implemented as a workflow and published as a Web application. This allows non-technical users to remotely execute the model and visualize results as a service through a simple Web interface. The model service and Web application has been prototyped in the San Antonio and Guadalupe River Basin in Texas, with input from university and agency partners. In the future, optimization model workflows will be developed to link with the RAPID model workflow to provide real-time water allocation decision support services.

Human factors influencing decision making

OpenAIRE

Jacobs, Patricia A.

1998-01-01

This report supplies references and comments on literature that identifies human factors influencing decision making, particularly military decision making. The literature has been classified as follows (the classes are not mutually exclusive): features of human information processing; decision making models which are not mathematical models but rather are descriptive; non- personality factors influencing decision making; national characteristics influencing decision makin...

Real-time monitoring and operational control of drinking-water systems

CERN Document Server

Ocampo-Martínez, Carlos; Pérez, Ramon; Cembrano, Gabriela; Quevedo, Joseba; Escobet, Teresa

2017-01-01

This book presents a set of approaches for the real-time monitoring and control of drinking-water networks based on advanced information and communication technologies. It shows the reader how to achieve significant improvements in efficiency in terms of water use, energy consumption, water loss minimization, and water quality guarantees. The methods and approaches presented are illustrated and have been applied using real-life pilot demonstrations based on the drinking-water network in Barcelona, Spain. The proposed approaches and tools cover: • decision-making support for real-time optimal control of water transport networks, explaining how stochastic model predictive control algorithms that take explicit account of uncertainties associated with energy prices and real demand allow the main flow and pressure actuators—pumping stations and pressure regulation valves—and intermediate storage tanks to be operated to meet demand using the most sustainable types of source and with minimum electricity costs;...

[Kairos. Decision-making in medical ethics].

Science.gov (United States)

Jousset, David

2014-06-01

This paper assesses the decision making patterns in medical ethics: the formalized pattern of decision science, the meditative pattern of an art of judgement and lastly the still-to-be-elaborated pattern of kairology or sense of the right time. The ethical decision is to be thought out in the conditions of medical action while resorting to the philosophical concepts that shed light on the issue. And it is precisely where medicine and philosophy of human action meet that the Greek notion of kairos, or "propitious moment", evokes the critical point where decision has to do with what is vital. Reflection shows that this kairos can be thought out outside the sacrificial pattern (deciding comes down to killing a possibility) by understanding the opportune moment as a sign of ethical action, as the condition for the formation of the subject (making a decision) and finally as a new relationship to time, including in the context of medical urgency. Thus with an approach to clinical ethics centred on the relation to the individual, the focus is less on the probabilistic knowledge of the decidable than on the meaning of the decision, and the undecidable comes to be accepted as an infinite dimension going beyond the limits of our acts, which makes the contingency and the grandeur of human responsibility.