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Sample records for stress-strain area predicted

  1. Methods for predicting isochronous stress-strain curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiyoshige, Masanori; Shimizu, Shigeki; Satoh, Keisuke.

    1976-01-01

    Isochronous stress-strain curves show the relation between stress and total strain at a certain temperature with time as a parameter, and they are drawn up from the creep test results at various stress levels at a definite temperature. The concept regarding the isochronous stress-strain curves was proposed by McVetty in 1930s, and has been used for the design of aero-engines. Recently the high temperature characteristics of materials are shown as the isochronous stress-strain curves in the design guide for the nuclear energy equipments and structures used in high temperature creep region. It is prescribed that these curves are used as the criteria for determining design stress intensity or the data for analyzing the superposed effects of creep and fatigue. In case of the isochronous stress-strain curves used for the design of nuclear energy equipments with very long service life, it is impractical to determine the curves directly from the results of long time creep test, accordingly the method of predicting long time stress-strain curves from short time creep test results must be established. The method proposed by the authors, for which the creep constitution equations taking the first and second creep stages into account are used, and the method using Larson-Miller parameter were studied, and it was found that both methods were reliable for the prediction. (Kako, I.)

  2. Prediction of thermal and mechanical stress-strain responses of TMC's subjected to complex TMF histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, W. S.; Mirdamadi, M.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents an experimental and analytical evaluation of cross-plied laminates of Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn (Ti-15-3) matrix reinforced with continuous silicon-carbide fibers (SCS-6) subjected to a complex TMF loading profile. Thermomechanical fatigue test techniques were developed to conduct a simulation of a generic hypersonic flight profile. A micromechanical analysis was used. The analysis predicts the stress-strain response of the laminate and of the constituents in each ply during thermal and mechanical cycling by using only constituent properties as input. The fiber was modeled as elastic with transverse orthotropic and temperature-dependent properties. The matrix was modeled using a thermoviscoplastic constitutive relation. The fiber transverse modulus was reduced in the analysis to simulate the fiber-matrix interface failures. Excellent correlation was found between measured and predicted laminate stress-strain response due to generic hypersonic flight profile when fiber debonding was modeled.

  3. Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duffy, Stephen [Cleveland State Univ., Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2013-09-09

    This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

  4. Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffy, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

  5. Fatigue Life Prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete Based on the Local Stress-Strain Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulian Zheng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Previously published studies have proposed fatigue life prediction models for dense graded asphalt pavement based on flexural fatigue test. This study focused on the fatigue life prediction of High Modulus Asphalt Concrete (HMAC pavement using the local strain-stress method and direct tension fatigue test. First, the direct tension fatigue test at various strain levels was conducted on HMAC prism samples cut from plate specimens. Afterwards, their true stress-strain loop curves were obtained and modified to develop the strain-fatigue life equation. Then the nominal strain of HMAC course determined using finite element method was converted into local strain using the Neuber method. Finally, based on the established fatigue equation and converted local strain, a method to predict the pavement fatigue crack initiation life was proposed and the fatigue life of a typical HMAC overlay pavement which runs a risk of bottom-up cracking was predicted and validated. Results show that the proposed method was able to produce satisfactory crack initiation life.

  6. Micromechanical Model for Deformation in Solids with Universal Predictions for Stress-Strain Curves and Slip Avalanches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahmen, Karin A.; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Uhl, Jonathan T.

    2009-01-01

    A basic micromechanical model for deformation of solids with only one tuning parameter (weakening ε) is introduced. The model can reproduce observed stress-strain curves, acoustic emissions and related power spectra, event statistics, and geometrical properties of slip, with a continuous phase transition from brittle to ductile behavior. Exact universal predictions are extracted using mean field theory and renormalization group tools. The results agree with recent experimental observations and simulations of related models for dislocation dynamics, material damage, and earthquake statistics.

  7. An Experimental Study of Mortars with Recycled Ceramic Aggregates: Deduction and Prediction of the Stress-Strain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisca Guadalupe Cabrera-Covarrubias

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The difficult current environmental situation, caused by construction industry residues containing ceramic materials, could be improved by using these materials as recycled aggregates in mortars, with their processing causing a reduction in their use in landfill, contributing to recycling and also minimizing the consumption of virgin materials. Although some research is currently being carried out into recycled mortars, little is known about their stress-strain (σ-ε; therefore, this work will provide the experimental results obtained from recycled mortars with recycled ceramic aggregates (with contents of 0%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 50% and 100%, such as the density and compression strength, as well as the σ-ε curves representative of their behavior. The values obtained from the analytical process of the results in order to finally obtain, through numerical analysis, the equations to predict their behavior (related to their recycled content are those of: σ (elastic ranges and failure maximum, ε (elastic ranges and failure maximum, and Resilience and Toughness. At the end of the investigation, it is established that mortars with recycled ceramic aggregate contents of up to 20% could be assimilated just like mortars with the usual aggregates, and the obtained prediction equations could be used in cases of similar applications.

  8. The MIDAS touch for Accurately Predicting the Stress-Strain Behavior of Tantalum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jorgensen, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-03-02

    Testing the behavior of metals in extreme environments is not always feasible, so material scientists use models to try and predict the behavior. To achieve accurate results it is necessary to use the appropriate model and material-specific parameters. This research evaluated the performance of six material models available in the MIDAS database [1] to determine at which temperatures and strain-rates they perform best, and to determine to which experimental data their parameters were optimized. Additionally, parameters were optimized for the Johnson-Cook model using experimental data from Lassila et al [2].

  9. Prediction of stress-strain state of municipal solid waste with application of soft soil creep model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ofrikhter Vadim Grigor'evich

    Full Text Available The deformation of municipal solid waste is a complex process caused by the nature of MSW, the properties of which differ from the properties of common soils. The mass of municipal solid waste shows the mixed behaviour partially similar to granular soils, and partially - to cohesive. So, one of mechanical characteristics of MSW is the cohesion typical to cohesive soils, but at the same time the filtration coefficient of MSW has an order of 1 m/day that is characteristic for granular soils. It has been established that MSW massif can be simulated like the soil reinforced by randomly oriented fibers. Today a significant amount of the verified and well proved software products are available for numerical modelling of soils. The majority of them use finite element method (FEM. The soft soil creep model (SSC-model seems to be the most suitable for modelling of municipal solid waste, as it allows estimating the development of settlements in time with separation of primary and secondary consolidation. Unlike the soft soil, one of the factors of secondary consolidation of MSW is biological degradation, the influence of which is possible to consider at the definition of the modified parameters essential for soft soil model. Application of soft soil creep model allows carrying out the calculation of stress-strain state of waste from the beginning of landfill filling up to any moment of time both during the period of operation and in postclosure period. The comparative calculation presented in the paper is executed in Plaxis software using the soft-soil creep model in contrast to the calculation using the composite model of MSW. All the characteristics for SSC-model were derived from the composite model. The comparative results demonstrate the advantage of SSC-model for prediction of the development of MSW stress-strain state. As far as after the completion of the biodegradation processes MSW behaviour is similar to cohesion-like soils, the demonstrated

  10. A Modified Johnson-Cook Model for Sheet Metal Forming at Elevated Temperatures and Its Application for Cooled Stress-Strain Curve and Spring-Back Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duc-Toan, Nguyen; Tien-Long, Banh; Young-Suk, Kim; Dong-Won, Jung

    2011-01-01

    In this study, a modified Johnson-Cook (J-C) model and an innovated method to determine (J-C) material parameters are proposed to predict more correctly stress-strain curve for tensile tests in elevated temperatures. A MATLAB tool is used to determine material parameters by fitting a curve to follow Ludwick's hardening law at various elevated temperatures. Those hardening law parameters are then utilized to determine modified (J-C) model material parameters. The modified (J-C) model shows the better prediction compared to the conventional one. As the first verification, an FEM tensile test simulation based on the isotropic hardening model for boron sheet steel at elevated temperatures was carried out via a user-material subroutine, using an explicit finite element code, and compared with the measurements. The temperature decrease of all elements due to the air cooling process was then calculated when considering the modified (J-C) model and coded to VUMAT subroutine for tensile test simulation of cooling process. The modified (J-C) model showed the good agreement between the simulation results and the corresponding experiments. The second investigation was applied for V-bending spring-back prediction of magnesium alloy sheets at elevated temperatures. Here, the combination of proposed J-C model with modified hardening law considering the unusual plastic behaviour for magnesium alloy sheet was adopted for FEM simulation of V-bending spring-back prediction and shown the good comparability with corresponding experiments.

  11. Prediction of macroscopic and local stress-strain behaviors of perforated plates under primary and secondary creep conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Tokiyoshi, Takumi; Mizokami, Yorikata

    2000-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local creep behaviors of perforated plates are examined in order to apply these methods to the structural design of perforated structures such as heat exchangers used in elevated temperatures. Both primary and secondary creeps are considered for predicting macroscopic and local creep behaviors of perorated plates which are made of actual structural materials. Both uniaxial and multiaxial loading of perforated plates are taken into consideration. The concept of effective stress is applied to the prediction of macroscopic creep behaviors of perforated plates, and the predicted results are compared with the numerical results by FEM for the unit section of perorated plated under creep, in order to confirm the propriety of the proposed method. Based on the idea that stress exponents in creep equations govern the stress distribution of perforated plates, a modified Neuber's rule is used for predicting local stress and strain concentrations. The propriety of this prediction method is shown through a comparison of the prediction with the numerical results by FEM for the unit section of perforated plates under creep, and experimental results by the Moire method. (author)

  12. Life prediction of l6 steel using strain-life curve and cyclic stress-strain curve by means of low cycle fatigue testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamdar, Sanket; Ukhande, Manoj; Date, Prashant; Lomate, Dattaprasad; Takale, Shyam; Singh, RKP

    2017-05-01

    L6 Steel is used as die material in closed die hot forging process. This material is having some unique properties. These properties are due to its composition. Strain softening is the noticeable property of this material. Due to this in spite of cracking at high stress this material gets plastically deformed and encounters loss in time as well as money. Studies of these properties are necessary to nurture this material at fullest extent. In this paper, numerous experiments have been carried on L6 material to evaluate cyclic Stress - strain behavior as swell as strain-life behavior of the material. Low cycle fatigue test is carried out on MTS fatigue test machine at fully reverse loading condition R=-1. Also strain softening effect on forging metal forming process is explained in detail. The failed samples during low cycle fatigue test further investigated metallurgically on scanning electron microscopy. Based on this study, life estimation of hot forging die is carried out and it’s correlation with actual shop floor data is found out. This work also concludes about effect of pre-treatments like nitro-carburizing and surface coating on L6 steel material, to enhance its fatigue life to certain extent.

  13. The Cyclic Stress-Strain Curve of Polycrystals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Ole Bøcker; Rasmussen, K. V.; Winter, A. T.

    1982-01-01

    The internal stresses implied by the Sachs model are estimated for individual PSBs at low plastic strain amplitudes and for homogeneously sheared grains at higher plastic strain amplitudes. The analysis shows that the Sachs model can account semi-quantitatively for experimentally measured cyclic...... stress-strain curves for copper. A similar approximative analysis of the Taylor model cannot account for the data. An interesting feature of the Sachs model is that, although it is assumed that the flow condition is entirely controlled by the PSBs. the predicted cyclic stress-strain curve displays...

  14. Modeling of stress-strain diagram on the basis of magnetic measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorkunov, Eh.S.; Fedotov, V.P.; Bukhvalov, A.B.; Veselov, I.N.

    1997-01-01

    The model of a stress-strain diagram with taking into account the strain hardening and the growth of metal damageing is proposed. The model is applied to calculate a stress-strain curve for continuous cast 45 steel using the results of magnetic properties measuring. The latter permits predicting the durability of construction elements with the use of nondestructive magnetic testing

  15. A numerical study of stress/strain response to oil development in reservoir rocks-a case study in Xingshugang area of Daqing Anticline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Zian; Ma Teng; Yi Jin; Zhu Jiangjian; Lin Ge; Zhang Lu; Zhu Yan; Sun Yaliang; Zhu Jun

    2010-01-01

    Formation pressure and the underground stress field will be disturbed by high pressure injection and production activities during oilfield development. Such disturbance will induce the deformation of formation rock, sometimes causing formation to slip. As a result, production wells and/or injection wells will encounter sanding, casing deformation, or even casing shear problems. This article introduced a simulation study on formation pressure and the underground stress field variation during injection and production activities in the Xingshugang area of the Daqing Anticline, Songliao Basin, China. The relationships of injection pressure to formation pressure, underground stress field variation, and strain variation were investigated in this paper.

  16. Normalized Rotational Multiple Yield Surface Framework (NRMYSF) stress-strain curve prediction method based on small strain triaxial test data on undisturbed Auckland residual clay soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor, M. J. Md; Ibrahim, A.; Rahman, A. S. A.

    2018-04-01

    Small strain triaxial test measurement is considered to be significantly accurate compared to the external strain measurement using conventional method due to systematic errors normally associated with the test. Three submersible miniature linear variable differential transducer (LVDT) mounted on yokes which clamped directly onto the soil sample at equally 120° from the others. The device setup using 0.4 N resolution load cell and 16 bit AD converter was capable of consistently resolving displacement of less than 1µm and measuring axial strains ranging from less than 0.001% to 2.5%. Further analysis of small strain local measurement data was performed using new Normalized Multiple Yield Surface Framework (NRMYSF) method and compared with existing Rotational Multiple Yield Surface Framework (RMYSF) prediction method. The prediction of shear strength based on combined intrinsic curvilinear shear strength envelope using small strain triaxial test data confirmed the significant improvement and reliability of the measurement and analysis methods. Moreover, the NRMYSF method shows an excellent data prediction and significant improvement toward more reliable prediction of soil strength that can reduce the cost and time of experimental laboratory test.

  17. Atlas of stress-strain curves

    CERN Document Server

    2002-01-01

    The Atlas of Stress-Strain Curves, Second Edition is substantially bigger in page dimensions, number of pages, and total number of curves than the previous edition. It contains over 1,400 curves, almost three times as many as in the 1987 edition. The curves are normalized in appearance to aid making comparisons among materials. All diagrams include metric (SI) units, and many also include U.S. customary units. All curves are captioned in a consistent format with valuable information including (as available) standard designation, the primary source of the curve, mechanical properties (including hardening exponent and strength coefficient), condition of sample, strain rate, test temperature, and alloy composition. Curve types include monotonic and cyclic stress-strain, isochronous stress-strain, and tangent modulus. Curves are logically arranged and indexed for fast retrieval of information. The book also includes an introduction that provides background information on methods of stress-strain determination, on...

  18. On generalization uniaxial stress-strain relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahay, C.; Dubey, R.N.

    1980-01-01

    Different forms of constitutive relations have been advanced for elastic, plastic and elastic-plastic behaviour of materials. It is shown that the various forms of the stress-strain relationship are specialized forms of generalization of a single stress-strain relation. For example, it is shown how the laws of elastic deformation, and the incremental and total deformation relationship for plastic behaviour are derivable from the Ramberg-Osgood relation. (orig.)

  19. Prediction of the Stress-Strain Behavior of Open-Cell Aluminum Foam under Compressive Loading and the Effects of Various RVE Boundary Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi Ghaleh Jigh, Behrang; Farsi, Mohammad Ali; Hosseini Toudeshky, Hossein

    2018-05-01

    The prediction of the mechanical behavior of metallic foams with realistic microstructure and the effects of various boundary conditions on the mechanical behavior is an important and challenging issue in modeling representative volume elements (RVEs). A numerical investigation is conducted to determine the effects of various boundary conditions and cell wall cross sections on the compressive mechanical properties of aluminum foam, including the stiffness, plateau stress and onset strain of densification. The open-cell AA6101-T6 aluminum foam Duocel is used in the analyses in this study. Geometrical characteristics including the cell size, foam relative density, and cross-sectional shape and thickness of the cell walls are extracted from images of the foam. Then, the obtained foam microstructure is analyzed as a 2D model. The ligaments are modeled as shear deformable beams with elastic-plastic material behavior. To prevent interpenetration of the nodes and walls inside the cells with large deformations, self-contact-type frictionless interaction is stipulated between the internal surfaces. Sensitivity analyses are performed using several boundary conditions and cells wall cross-sectional shapes. The predicted results from the finite element analyses are compared with the experimental results. Finally, the most appropriate boundary conditions, leading to more consistent results with the experimental data, are introduced.

  20. Prediction of the Stress-Strain Behavior of Open-Cell Aluminum Foam under Compressive Loading and the Effects of Various RVE Boundary Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi Ghaleh Jigh, Behrang; Farsi, Mohammad Ali; Hosseini Toudeshky, Hossein

    2018-04-01

    The prediction of the mechanical behavior of metallic foams with realistic microstructure and the effects of various boundary conditions on the mechanical behavior is an important and challenging issue in modeling representative volume elements (RVEs). A numerical investigation is conducted to determine the effects of various boundary conditions and cell wall cross sections on the compressive mechanical properties of aluminum foam, including the stiffness, plateau stress and onset strain of densification. The open-cell AA6101-T6 aluminum foam Duocel is used in the analyses in this study. Geometrical characteristics including the cell size, foam relative density, and cross-sectional shape and thickness of the cell walls are extracted from images of the foam. Then, the obtained foam microstructure is analyzed as a 2D model. The ligaments are modeled as shear deformable beams with elastic-plastic material behavior. To prevent interpenetration of the nodes and walls inside the cells with large deformations, self-contact-type frictionless interaction is stipulated between the internal surfaces. Sensitivity analyses are performed using several boundary conditions and cells wall cross-sectional shapes. The predicted results from the finite element analyses are compared with the experimental results. Finally, the most appropriate boundary conditions, leading to more consistent results with the experimental data, are introduced.

  1. BILAM: a composite laminate failure-analysis code using bilinear stress-strain approximations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaughlin, P.V. Jr.; Dasgupta, A.; Chun, Y.W.

    1980-10-01

    The BILAM code which uses constant strain laminate analysis to generate in-plane load/deformation or stress/strain history of composite laminates to the point of laminate failure is described. The program uses bilinear stress-strain curves to model layer stress-strain behavior. Composite laminates are used for flywheels. The use of this computer code will help to develop data on the behavior of fiber composite materials which can be used by flywheel designers. In this program the stress-strain curves are modelled by assuming linear response in axial tension while using bilinear approximations (2 linear segments) for stress-strain response to axial compressive, transverse tensile, transverse compressive and axial shear loadings. It should be noted that the program attempts to empirically simulate the effects of the phenomena which cause nonlinear stress-strain behavior, instead of mathematically modelling the micromechanics involved. This code, therefore, performs a bilinear laminate analysis, and, in conjunction with several user-defined failure interaction criteria, is designed to provide sequential information on all layer failures up to and including the first fiber failure. The modus operandi is described. Code BILAM can be used to: predict the load-deformation/stress-strain behavior of a composite laminate subjected to a given combination of in-plane loads, and make analytical predictions of laminate strength.

  2. Relationship between fatigue life in the creep-fatigue region and stress-strain response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkovits, A.; Nadiv, S.

    1988-01-01

    On the basis of mechanical tests and metallographic studies, strainrange partitioned lives were predicted by introducing stress-strain materials parameters into the Universal Slopes Equation. This was the result of correlating fatigue damage mechanisms and deformation mechanisms operating at elevated temperatures on the basis of observed mechanical and microstructural behavior. Correlation between high temperature fatigue and stress strain properties for nickel base superalloys and stainless steel substantiated the method. Parameters which must be evaluated for PP- and CC- life are the maximum stress achievable under entirely plastic and creep conditions respectively and corresponding inelastic strains, and the two more pairs of stress strain parameters must be ascertained.

  3. Stress-Strain Relationship of Synthetic Fiber Reinforced Concrete Columns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosidawani

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Many empirical confinement models for normal and high strength concrete have been developed. Nevertheless, reported studies in the term of confinement of fiber reinforced concrete are limited. Whereas, the use of fiber reinforced concrete in structural elements has become the subject of the research and has indicated positive experiences. Since the stress-strain relationship of concrete in compression is required for analysis of structural members, the study of the stress-strain relationship for synthetic fiber reinforced concrete is substantial. The aim of the study is to examine the capabilities of the various models available in the literature to predict the actual experimental behavior of synthetic fiber reinforced high-strength concrete columns. The experimental data used are the results of the circular column specimens with the spiral spacing and the volume fraction of synthetic fiber as the test variables. The axial stress-strain curves from the tests are then compared with the various models of confinement from the literature. The performance index of each model is measured by using the coefficient of variation (COV concept of stress and strain behavior parameter. Among the confinement models, Cusson model shows the closest valid value of the coefficient of variation.

  4. Multiaxial Stress-Strain Modeling and Effect of Additional Hardening due to Nonproportional Loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashed, G.; Ghajar, R.; Farrahi, G.

    2007-01-01

    Most engineering components are subjected to multiaxial rather than uniaxial cyclic loading, which causes multiaxial fatigue. The pre-requisite to predict the fatigue life of such components is to determine the multiaxial stress strain relationship. In this paper the multiaxial cyclic stress-strain model under proportional loading is derived using the modified power law stress-strain relationship. The equivalent strain amplitude consisted of the normal strain excursion and maximum shear strain amplitude is used in the proportional model to include the additional hardening effect due to nonproportional loading. Therefore a new multiaxial cyclic stress-strain relationship is devised for out of phase nonproportional loading. The model is applied to the nonproportional loading case and the results are compared with the other researchers' experimental data published in the literature, which are in a reasonable agreement with the experimental data. The relationship presented here is convenient for the engineering applications

  5. Study on elastic-plastic deformation analysis using a cyclic stress-strain curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Setoguchi, Katsuya; Yamauchi, Masafumi

    1983-01-01

    This paper presents the results of the elastic-plastic deformation analysis using a cyclic stress-strain curve with an intention to apply this method for predicting the low-cycle fatigue life. Uniaxial plastic cycling tests were performed on 2 1/4Cr-1Mo steel to investigate the correspondence between the cyclic stress-strain curve and the hysteresis loop, and also to determine what mathematical model should be used for analysis of deformation at stress reversal. Furthermore, a cyclic in-plane bending test was performed on a flat plate to clarify the validity of the cyclic stress-strain curve-based theoretical analysis. The results obtained are as follows: (1) The cyclic stress-strain curve corresponds nearly to the ascending curve of hysteresis loop scaled by a factor of 1/2 for both stress and strain. Therefore, the cyclic stress-strain curve can be determined from the shape of hysteresis loop, for simplicity. (2) To perform the elastic-plastic deformation analysis using the cyclic stress-strain curve is both practical and effective for predicting the cyclic elastic-plastic deformation of structures at the stage of advanced cycles. And Masing model can serve as a suitable mathematical model for such a deformation analysis. (author)

  6. Combined-load stress-strain relationship for advanced fiber composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamis, C. C.; Sullivan, T. L.

    1975-01-01

    It was demonstrated experimentally that only one test specimen is required to determine the combined-load stress-strain relationships of a given fiber composite system. These relationships were determined using a thin angle-plied laminate tube and subjecting it to a number of combined-loading conditions. The measured data obtained are compared with theoretical predictions. Some important considerations associated with such a test are identified, and the significance of combined-load stress-strain relationships in certain practical designs are discussed.

  7. Measurement of stress strain and vibrational properties of tendons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revel, Gian Marco; Scalise, Alessandro; Scalise, Lorenzo

    2003-08-01

    The authors present a new non-intrusive experimental procedure based on laser techniques for the measurement of mechanical properties of tendons. The procedure is based on the measurement of the first resonance frequency of the tendon by laser Doppler vibrometry during in vitro tensile experiments, with the final aim of establishing a measurement procedure to perform the mechanical characterization of tendons by extracting parameters such as the resonance frequency, also achievable during in vivo investigation. The experimental procedure is reported, taking into account the need to simulate the physiological conditions of the Achilles tendon, and the measurement technique used for the non-invasive determination of tendon cross-sectional area during tensile vibration tests at different load levels is described. The test procedure is based on a tensile machine, which measures longitudinal tendons undergoing controlled load conditions. Cross-sectional area is measured using a new non-contact procedure for the measurement of tendon perimeter (repeatability of 99% and accuracy of 2%). For each loading condition, vibration resonance frequency and damping, cross-sectional area and tensile force are measured, allowing thus a mechanical characterization of the tendon. Tendon stress-strain curves are reported. Stress-strain curves have been correlated to the first vibration resonance frequency and damping of the tendon measured using a single-point laser Doppler vibrometer. Moreover, experimental results have been compared with a theoretical model of a vibrating cord showing discrepancies. In vitro tests are reported, demonstrating the validity of the method for the comparison of different aged rabbit tendons.

  8. Spherical Nanoindentation Stress-Strain Measurements of BOR-60 14YWT-NFA1 Irradiated Tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weaver, Jordan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Carvajal Nunez, Ursula [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Krumwiede, David [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Saleh, Tarik A. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Hosemann, Peter [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Nelson, Andrew Thomas [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Maloy, Stuart Andrew [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Mara, Nathan Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-28

    Spherical nanoindentation stress-strain protocols were applied to characterize unirradiated and fast neutron irradiated nanostructured ferritic alloy (NFA) 14YWT and compared against Berkovich nanohardness and available tensile data. The predicted uniaxial yield strength from spherical, 100 and 5 micron radii, indentation yield strength measurements was 1100-1400 MPa which compares well with the predictions from Berkovich nanohardness, 1200 MPa, and available tensile data, ~1100 MPa. However, spherical indentation measurements predict an increase in the uniaxial yield strength of ~1 GPa while Berkovich nanohardness measurements predict an increase of only ~250 MPa. No tensile data exists on the irradiated condition. It is believed the difference in the predicted uniaxial yield strength between spherical and Berkovich nanoindentation are due to a low number of tests on the irradiated sample combined with the significant heterogeneity in the microstructure, the differences in sensitivity to sample preparation on the irradiated sample between the two indentation protocols , and/or in how strain localizes under the indenter with the possibility of dislocation channeling under Berkovich hardness indents leading to strain softening. Nanoindentation capabilities to test neutron irradiated samples in a radiological area were realized.

  9. Analysis of stress-strain relationships in silicon ribbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, O. W., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    An analysis of stress-strain relationships in silicon ribbon is presented. A model to present entire process, dynamical Transit Analysis is developed. It is found that knowledge of past-strain history is significant in modeling activities.

  10. An effective uniaxial tensile stress-strain relationship for prestressed concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chitnuyanondh, L.; Rizkalla, S.; Murray, D.W.; MacGregor, J.G.

    1979-02-01

    This report evaluates the direct tensile strength and an equivalent uniaxial tensile stress-strain relationship for prestressed concrete using data from specimens tested at the University of Alberta which represent segments from the wall of a containment vessel. The stress-strain relationship, when used in conjunction with the BOSOR5 program, enables prediction of the response of prestressed concrete under any biaxial combination of compressive and/or tensile stresses. Comparisons between the experimental and analytical (BOSOR5) load-strain response of the wall segments are also presented. It is concluded that the BOSOR5 program is able to predict satisfactorily the response of the wall segments and multi-layered shell structures. (author)

  11. Stress/strain/time properties of highly compacted bentonite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pusch, R.

    1983-05-01

    In this paper, a recently developed creep theory based on statistical mechanics has been used to analyze a number of experimental creep curves, the conclusion being that the creep behavior of dense MX-80 bentonite is in agreement with the physical model, and that the average bond strength is within the hydrogen bond region. The latter conclusion thus indicates that interparticle displacements leading to macroscopic creep takes place in interparticle and intraparticle water lattices. These findings were taken as a justification to apply the creep theory to a prediction of the settlement over a one million year period. It gave an estimated settlement of 1 cm at maximum, which is of no practical significance. The thixotropic and viscous properties of highly compacted bentonite present certain difficulties in the determination and evaluation of the stress/strain/time parameters that are required for ordinary elastic and elasto-plastic analyses. Still, these parameters could be sufficiently well identified to allow for a preliminary estimation of the stresses induced in the metal canisters by slight rock displacements. The analysis, suggests that a 1 cm rapid shear perpendicular to the axes of the canisters can take place without harming them. (author)

  12. Probabilistic analysis of structures involving random stress-strain behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, H. R.; Thacker, B. H.; Harren, S. V.

    1991-01-01

    The present methodology for analysis of structures with random stress strain behavior characterizes the uniaxial stress-strain curve in terms of (1) elastic modulus, (2) engineering stress at initial yield, (3) initial plastic-hardening slope, (4) engineering stress at point of ultimate load, and (5) engineering strain at point of ultimate load. The methodology is incorporated into the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress code for probabilistic structural analysis. The illustrative problem of a thick cylinder under internal pressure, where both the internal pressure and the stress-strain curve are random, is addressed by means of the code. The response value is the cumulative distribution function of the equivalent plastic strain at the inner radius.

  13. A NURBS approximation of experimental stress-strain curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedorov, Timofey V.; Morrev, Pavel G.

    2016-01-01

    A compact universal representation of monotonic experimental stress-strain curves of metals and alloys is proposed. It is based on the nonuniform rational Bezier splines (NURBS) of second order and may be used in a computer library of materials. Only six parameters per curve are needed; this is equivalent to a specification of only three points in a stress-strain plane. NURBS-functions of higher order prove to be surplus. Explicit expressions for both yield stress and hardening modulus are given. Two types of curves are considered: at a finite interval of strain and at infinite one. A broad class of metals and alloys of various chemical compositions subjected to various types of preliminary thermo-mechanical working is selected from a comprehensive data base in order to test the methodology proposed. The results demonstrate excellent correspondence to the experimental data. Keywords: work hardening, stress-strain curve, spline approximation, nonuniform rational B-spline, NURBS.

  14. Biaxial failure criteria and stress-strain response for concrete of containment structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S. K.; Woo, S. K.; Song, Y. C.; Kweon, Y. K.; Cho, C. H.

    2001-01-01

    Biaxial failure criteria and stress-strain response for plain concrete of containment structure on nuclear power plants are studied under uniaxial and biaxial stress(compression-compression, compression-tension, and tension-tension combined stress). The concrete specimens of a square plate type are used for uniaxial and biaxial loading. The experimental data indicate that the strength of concrete under biaxial compression, f 2 /f 1 =-1/-1, is 17 percent larger than under uniaxial compression and the poisson's ratio of concrete is 0.1745. On the base of the results, a biaxial failure envelope for plain concrete that the uniaxial strength is 5660 psi are provided, and the biaxial failure behaviors for three biaxial loading areas are plotted respectively. And, various analytical equations having the reliability are proposed for representations of the biaxial failure criteria and stress-strain response curves of concrete

  15. Correction of the post -- necking true stress -- strain data using instrumented nanoindentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Fonseca, Ivan Dario

    The study of large plastic deformations has been the focus of numerous studies particularly in the metal forming processes and fracture mechanics fields. A good understanding of the plastic flow properties of metallic alloys and the true stresses and true strains induced during plastic deformation is crucial to optimize the aforementioned processes, and to predict ductile failure in fracture mechanics analyzes. Knowledge of stresses and strains is extracted from the true stress-strain curve of the material from the uniaxial tensile test. In addition, stress triaxiality is manifested by the neck developed during the last stage of a tensile test performed on a ductile material. This necking phenomenon is the factor responsible for deviating from uniaxial state into a triaxial one, then, providing an inaccurate description of the material's behavior after the onset of necking. The research of this dissertation is aimed at the development of a correction method for the nonuniform plastic deformation (post-necking) portion of the true stress-strain curve. The correction proposed is based on the well-known relationship between hardness and flow (yield) stress, except that instrumented nanoindentation hardness is utilized rather than conventional macro or micro hardness. Three metals with different combinations of strain hardening behavior and crystal structure were subjected to quasi-static tensile tests: power-law strain hardening low carbon G10180 steel (BCC) and electrolytic tough pitch copper C11000 (FCC), and linear strain hardening austenitic stainless steel S30400 (FCC). Nanoindentation hardness values, measured on the broken tensile specimen, were converted into flow stress values by means of the constraint factor C from Tabor's, the representative plastic strainepsilonr and the post-test true plastic strains measured. Micro Vickers hardness testing was carried out on the sample as well. The constraint factors were 5.5, 4.5 and 4.5 and the representative plastic

  16. Stress strain modelling of casting processes in the framework of the control volume method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper; Andersen, Søren; Thorborg, Jesper

    1998-01-01

    Realistic computer simulations of casting processes call for the solution of both thermal, fluid-flow and stress/strain related problems. The multitude of the influencing parameters, and their non-linear, transient and temperature dependent nature, make the calculations complex. Therefore the nee......, the present model is based on the mainly decoupled representation of the thermal, mechanical and microstructural processes. Examples of industrial applications, such as predicting residual deformations in castings and stress levels in die casting dies, are presented...... for fast, flexible, multidimensional numerical methods is obvious. The basis of the deformation and stress/strain calculation is a transient heat transfer analysis including solidification. This paper presents an approach where the stress/strain and the heat transfer analysis uses the same computational...... domain, which is highly convenient. The basis of the method is the control volume finite difference approach on structured meshes. The basic assumptions of the method are shortly reviewed and discussed. As for other methods which aim at application oriented analysis of casting deformations and stresses...

  17. Probabilistic molecular dynamics evaluation of the stress-strain behavior of polyethylene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stowe, J.Q.; Predecki, P.K.; Laz, P.J.; Burks, B.M.; Kumosa, M.

    2009-01-01

    The primary goal of this study was to utilize molecular dynamics to predict the mechanical behavior of polyethylene. In particular, stress-strain relationships, the Young's modulus and Poisson ratio were predicted for low-density polyethylene at several molecular weights and polymer configurations with the number of united CH 2 atoms ranging between 500 and 5000. Probabilistic Monte Carlo methods were also used to identify the extent of uncertainty in mechanical property predictions. In general, asymptotic behavior was observed for stress and the Young's modulus as the molecular weight of the models increased. At the same time, significant variability, of the order of 1000% of the mean, in the stress-strain relationships and the Young's modulus predictions was observed, especially for low molecular weight models. The variability in the Young's modulus predictions ranged from 17.9 to 3.2 GPa for the models ranging from 100 to 5000 CH 2 atom models. However, it was also found that the mean value of the Young's modulus approached a physically possible value of 194 MPa for the 5000 atom model. Poisson ratio predictions also resulted in significant variability, from 200% to 425% of the mean, and ranged from 0.75 to 1.30. The mean value of the Poisson ratios calculated in this study ranged from 0.32 to 0.44 for the 100 to 5000 atom models, respectively.

  18. Back-propagation neural network-based approximate analysis of true stress-strain behaviors of high-strength metallic material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doh, Jaeh Yeok; Lee, Jong Soo; Lee, Seung Uk

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a Back-propagation neural network (BPN) is employed to conduct an approximation of a true stress-strain curve using the load-displacement experimental data of DP590, a high-strength material used in automobile bodies and chassis. The optimized interconnection weights are obtained with hidden layers and output layers of the BPN through intelligent learning and training of the experimental data; by using these weights, a mathematical model of the material's behavior is suggested through this feed-forward neural network. Generally, the material properties from the tensile test cannot be acquired until the fracture regions, since it is difficult to measure the cross-section area of a specimen after diffusion necking. For this reason, the plastic properties of the true stress-strain are extrapolated using the weighted-average method after diffusion necking. The accuracies of BPN-based meta-models for predicting material properties are validated in terms of the Root mean square error (RMSE). By applying the approximate material properties, the reliable finite element solution can be obtained to realize the different shapes of the finite element models. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the approximate meta-model is performed using the first-order approximate derivatives of the BPN and is compared with the results of the finite difference method. In addition, we predict the tension velocity's effect on the material property through a first-order sensitivity analysis.

  19. Robust small area prediction for counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzavidis, Nikos; Ranalli, M Giovanna; Salvati, Nicola; Dreassi, Emanuela; Chambers, Ray

    2015-06-01

    A new semiparametric approach to model-based small area prediction for counts is proposed and used for estimating the average number of visits to physicians for Health Districts in Central Italy. The proposed small area predictor can be viewed as an outlier robust alternative to the more commonly used empirical plug-in predictor that is based on a Poisson generalized linear mixed model with Gaussian random effects. Results from the real data application and from a simulation experiment confirm that the proposed small area predictor has good robustness properties and in some cases can be more efficient than alternative small area approaches. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  20. Stress strain flow curves for Cu-OFP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandstroem, Rolf; Hallgren, Josefin

    2009-04-01

    Stress strain curves of oxygen free copper alloyed with phosphorus Cu-OFP have been determined in compression and tension. The compression tests were performed at room temperature for strain rates between 10 -5 and 10 -3 1/s. The tests in tension covered the temperature range 20 to 175 deg C for strain rates between 10 -7 and 5x10 -3 1/s. The results in compression and tension were close for similar strain rates. A model for stress strain curves has been formulated using basic dislocation mechanisms. The model has been set up in such a way that fitting of parameters to the curves is avoided. By using a fundamental creep model as a basis a direct relation to creep data has been established. The maximum engineering flow stress in tension is related to the creep stress giving the same strain rate. The model reproduces the measured flow curves as function of temperature and strain rate in the investigated interval. The model is suitable to use in finite-element computations of structures in Cu-OFP

  1. An improved Armstrong-Frederick-Type Plasticity Model for Stable Cyclic Stress-Strain Responses Considering Nonproportional Hardening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Zhang, Zhong-ping; Li, Chun-wang

    2018-03-01

    This paper modified an Armstrong-Frederick-type plasticity model for investigating the stable cyclic deformation behavior of metallic materials with different sensitivity to nonproportional loadings. In the modified model, the nonproportionality factor and nonproportional cyclic hardening coefficient coupled with the Jiang-Sehitoglu incremental plasticity model were used to estimate the stable stress-strain responses of the two materials (1045HR steel and 304 stainless steel) under various tension-torsion strain paths. A new equation was proposed to calculate the nonproportionality factor on the basis of the minimum normal strain range. Procedures to determine the minimum normal strain range were presented for general multiaxial loadings. Then, the modified model requires only the cyclic strain hardening exponent and cyclic strength coefficient to determine the material constants. It is convenient for predicting the stable stress-strain responses of materials in engineering application. Comparisons showed that the modified model can reflect the effect of nonproportional cyclic hardening well.

  2. Mimicking biological stress-strain behaviour with synthetic elastomers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatankhah-Varnosfaderani, Mohammad; Daniel, William F. M.; Everhart, Matthew H.; Pandya, Ashish A.; Liang, Heyi; Matyjaszewski, Krzysztof; Dobrynin, Andrey V.; Sheiko, Sergei S.

    2017-09-01

    Despite the versatility of synthetic chemistry, certain combinations of mechanical softness, strength, and toughness can be difficult to achieve in a single material. These combinations are, however, commonplace in biological tissues, and are therefore needed for applications such as medical implants, tissue engineering, soft robotics, and wearable electronics. Present materials synthesis strategies are predominantly Edisonian, involving the empirical mixing of assorted monomers, crosslinking schemes, and occluded swelling agents, but this approach yields limited property control. Here we present a general strategy for mimicking the mechanical behaviour of biological materials by precisely encoding their stress-strain curves in solvent-free brush- and comb-like polymer networks (elastomers). The code consists of three independent architectural parameters—network strand length, side-chain length and grafting density. Using prototypical poly(dimethylsiloxane) elastomers, we illustrate how this parametric triplet enables the replication of the strain-stiffening characteristics of jellyfish, lung, and arterial tissues.

  3. Soil Stress-Strain Behavior: Measurement, Modeling and Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ling, Hoe I; Leshchinsky, Dov; Koseki, Junichi; A Collection of Papers of the Geotechnical Symposium in Rome

    2007-01-01

    This book is an outgrowth of the proceedings for the Geotechnical Symposium in Roma, which was held on March 16 and 17, 2006 in Rome, Italy. The Symposium was organized to celebrate the 60th birthday of Prof. Tatsuoka as well as honoring his research achievement. The publications are focused on the recent developments in the stress-strain behavior of geomaterials, with an emphasis on laboratory measurements, soil constitutive modeling and behavior of soil structures (such as reinforced soils, piles and slopes). The latest advancement in the field, such as the rate effect and dynamic behavior of both clay and sand, behavior of modified soils and soil mixtures, and soil liquefaction are addressed. A special keynote paper by Prof. Tatsuoka is included with three other keynote papers (presented by Prof. Lo Presti, Prof. Di Benedetto, and Prof. Shibuya).

  4. Stress-strain response of plastic waste mixed soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babu, G L Sivakumar; Chouksey, Sandeep Kumar

    2011-03-01

    Recycling plastic waste from water bottles has become one of the major challenges worldwide. The present study provides an approach for the use plastic waste as reinforcement material in soil. The experimental results in the form of stress-strain-pore water pressure response are presented. Based on experimental test results, it is observed that the strength of soil is improved and compressibility reduced significantly with addition of a small percentage of plastic waste to the soil. The use of the improvement in strength and compressibility response due to inclusion of plastic waste can be advantageously used in bearing capacity improvement and settlement reduction in the design of shallow foundations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The role of creep in stress strain curves for copper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandström, Rolf; Hallgren, Josefin

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A dislocation based model takes into account both dynamic and static recovery. ► Tests at constant load and at constant strain rate modelled without fitting parameters. ► The model can describe primary and secondary creep of Cu-OFP from 75 to 250 °C. ► The temperature and strain rate dependence of stress strain curves can be modelled. ► Intended for the slow strain rates in canisters for storage of nuclear waste. - Abstract: A model for plastic deformation in pure copper taking work hardening, dynamic recovery and static recovery into account, has been formulated using basic dislocation mechanisms. The model is intended to be used in finite-element computations of the long term behaviour of structures in Cu-OFP for storage of nuclear waste. The relation between the strain rate and the maximum flow stress in the model has been demonstrated to correspond to strain rate versus stress in creep tests for oxygen free copper alloyed with phosphorus Cu-OFP. A further development of the model can also represent the primary and secondary stage of creep curves. The model is compared to stress strain curves in compression and tension for Cu-OFP. The compression tests were performed at room temperature for strain rates between 5 × 10 −5 and 5 × 10 −3 s −1 . The tests in tension covered the temperature range 20–175 °C for strain rates between 1 × 10 −7 and 1 × 10 −4 s −1 . Consequently, it is demonstrated that the model can represent mechanical test data that have been generated both at constant load and at constant strain rate without the use of any fitting parameters.

  6. Cyclic stress-strain behaviour under thermomechanical fatigue conditions - Modeling by means of an enhanced multi-component model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christ, H J [Institut fuer Werkstofftechnik, Universitaet Siegen, D-57068 Siegen (Germany); Bauer, V, E-mail: hans-juergen.christ@uni-siegen.d [Wieland Werke AG, Graf-Arco Str. 36, D-89072 Ulm (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    The cyclic stress-strain behaviour of metals and alloys in cyclic saturation can reasonably be described by means of simple multi-component models, such as the model based on a parallel arrangement of elastic-perfectly plastic elements, which was originally proposed by Masing already in 1923. This model concept was applied to thermomechanical fatigue loading of two metallic engineering materials which were found to be rather oppositional with respect to cyclic plastic deformation. One material is an austenitic stainless steel of type AISI304L which shows dynamic strain aging (DSA) and serves as an example for a rather ductile alloy. A dislocation arrangement was found after TMF testing deviating characteristically from the corresponding isothermal microstructures. The second material is a third-generation near-gamma TiAl alloy which is characterized by a very pronounced ductile-to-brittle transition (DBT) within the temperature range of TMF cycling. Isothermal fatigue testing at temperatures below the DBT temperature leads to cyclic hardening, while cyclic softening was found to occur above DBT. The combined effect under TMF leads to a continuously developing mean stress. The experimental observations regarding isothermal and non-isothermal stress-strain behaviour and the correlation to the underlying microstructural processes was used to further develop the TMF multi-composite model in order to accurately predict the TMF stress-strain response by taking the alloy-specific features into account.

  7. Micromechanical modelling of the cyclic stress-strain behaviour of nickel polycrystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steckmeyer, A.; Sauzay, M.; Weidner, A.; Hieckmann, E.

    2012-01-01

    A crystalline elasto-plasticity model is proposed to describe the cyclic behaviour of face-centred cubic crystals. It is based on many experimental observations correlating the observed dislocation structures with the orientations of corresponding crystals. The model distinguishes between two families of crystals. The first family gathers crystals for which the tension-compression loading axis is located in the centre of the standard stereo-graphic triangle. These crystals, in which bundle and/or slip band dislocation structures are usually observed, are subjected to single slip deformation. The second family gathers crystals in which labyrinths or wall dislocation structures develop. These crystals are subjected to multiple slip deformation. Crystalline plasticity parameters are adjusted using only the single crystal cyclic stress strain curves measured for one orientation of each of the two families. The relevance of the model is evaluated through finite elements calculations of the uniaxial cyclic deformation of texture-free nickel polycrystals at room temperature. The macroscopic predictions are in reasonable agreement with experimental data concerning both the cyclic stress-strain curve and the hysteresis loops provided either large grain sizes or intermediate to high plastic strains are considered. By construction, the modelling is unable to predict grain size effect observed at low plastic strain. The distributions of the mean grain plastic strains become narrower as the macroscopic plastic strain amplitude increases, which appears consistent with the large scattering in high-cycle fatigue lifetimes usually observed. On the contrary, the distributions of mean grain axial stresses get broader, in agreement with neutron and X-ray diffraction measurement values published in the literature. The influence of the material parameters is then discussed. Finally, the cumulative probability curves of the number of cycles to fatigue microcrack nucleation are deduced

  8. A model for the stress-strain behavior of toughened polystyrene. Part 2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sjoerdsma, S.D.; Heikens, D.

    1982-01-01

    The general stress-strain relationship derived in an earlier paper is applied to analyse experimental stress-strain curves of polystyrene-polyethylene blends. It is concluded from the stress and temperature dependence of the rates of craze initiation and craze growth that these rates can be

  9. Analysis of Mechanical Stresses/Strains in Superconducting Wire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barry, Matthew; Chen, Jingping; Zhai, Yuhu

    2016-10-01

    The optimization of superconducting magnet performance and development of high-field superconducting magnets will greatly impact the next generation of fusion devices. A successful magnet development, however, relies deeply on the understanding of superconducting materials. Among the numerous factors that impact a superconductor's performance, mechanical stress is the most important because of the extreme operation temperature and large electromagnetic forces. In this study, mechanical theory is used to calculate the stresses/strains in typical superconducting strands, which consist of a stabilizer, a barrier, a matrix and superconducting filaments. Both thermal loads and mechanical loads are included in the analysis to simulate operation conditions. Because this model simulates the typical architecture of major superconducting materials, such as Nb3Sn, MgB2, Bi-2212 etc., it provides a good overall picture for us to understand the behavior of these superconductors in terms of thermal and mechanical loads. This work was supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Workforce Development for Teachers and Scientists (WDTS) under the Science Undergraduate Laboratory Internship (SULI) program.

  10. Representative Stress-Strain Curve by Spherical Indentation on Elastic-Plastic Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Chang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Tensile stress-strain curve of metallic materials can be determined by the representative stress-strain curve from the spherical indentation. Tabor empirically determined the stress constraint factor (stress CF, ψ, and strain constraint factor (strain CF, β, but the choice of value for ψ and β is still under discussion. In this study, a new insight into the relationship between constraint factors of stress and strain is analytically described based on the formation of Tabor’s equation. Experiment tests were performed to evaluate these constraint factors. From the results, representative stress-strain curves using a proposed strain constraint factor can fit better with nominal stress-strain curve than those using Tabor’s constraint factors.

  11. Study of stress-strain state of pipeline under permafrost conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarasenko, A. A.; Redutinskiy, M. N.; Chepur, P. V.; Gruchenkova, A. A.

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, the dependences of the stress-strain state and subsidence of pipelines on the dimensions of the subsidence zone are obtained for the sizes of pipes that have become most widespread during the construction of main oil pipelines (530x10, 820x12, 1020x12, 1020x14, 1020x16, 1220x14, 1220x16, 1220x18 mm). True values of stresses in the pipeline wall, as well as the exact location of maximum stresses for the interval of subsidence zones from 5 to 60 meters, are determined. For this purpose, the authors developed a finite element model of the pipeline that takes into account the actual interaction of the pipeline with the subgrade and allows calculating the SSS of the structure for a variable subsidence zone. Based on the obtained dependences for the underground laying of oil pipelines in permafrost areas, it is proposed to artificially limit the zone of possible subsidence by separation supports from the soil with higher building properties and physical-mechanical parameters. This technical solution would significantly reduce costs when constructing new oil pipelines in permafrost areas.

  12. Acquirement of true stress-strain curve using true fracture strain obtained by tensile test and FE analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kyoung Yoon; Kim, Tae Hyung; Lee, Hyung Yil

    2009-01-01

    In this work, we predict a true fracture strain using load-displacement curves from tensile test and Finite Element Analysis (FEA), and suggest a method for acquiring true Stress-Strain (SS) curves by predicted fracture strain. We first derived the true SS curve up to necking point from load-displacement curve. As the beginning, the posterior necking part of true SS curve is linearly extrapolated with the slope at necking point. The whole SS curve is then adopted for FE simulation of tensile test. The Bridgman factor or suitable plate correction factors are applied to pre and post FEA. In the load-true strain curve from FEA, the true fracture strain is determined as the matching point to test fracture load. The determined true strain is validated by comparing with test fracture strain. Finally, we complete the true SS curve by combining the prior necking part and linear part, the latter of which connects necking and predicted fracture points.

  13. Acquirement of true stress-strain curve using true fracture strain obtained by tensile test and FE analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kyoung Yoon; Kim, Tae Hyung; Lee, Hyung Yil [Sogang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-07-01

    In this work, we predict a true fracture strain using load-displacement curves from tensile test and Finite Element Analysis (FEA), and suggest a method for acquiring true Stress-Strain (SS) curves by predicted fracture strain. We first derived the true SS curve up to necking point from load-displacement curve. As the beginning, the posterior necking part of true SS curve is linearly extrapolated with the slope at necking point. The whole SS curve is then adopted for FE simulation of tensile test. The Bridgman factor or suitable plate correction factors are applied to pre and post FEA. In the load-true strain curve from FEA, the true fracture strain is determined as the matching point to test fracture load. The determined true strain is validated by comparing with test fracture strain. Finally, we complete the true SS curve by combining the prior necking part and linear part, the latter of which connects necking and predicted fracture points.

  14. Acquirement of True Stress-strain Curve Using True Fracture Strain Obtained by Tensile Test and FE Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Kyoung Yoon; Lee, Hyung Yil [Sogang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Tae Hyung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    In this work, we predict a true fracture strain using load-displacement curves from tensile test and finite element analysis (FEA), and suggest a method for acquiring true stress-strain (SS) curves by predicted fracture strain. We first derived the true SS curve up to necking point from load-displacement curve. As the beginning, the posterior necking part of true SS curve is linearly extrapolated with the slope at necking point. The whole SS curve is then adopted for FE simulation of tensile test. The Bridgman factor or suitable plate correction factors are applied to pre and post FEA. In the load-true strain curve from FEA, the true fracture strain is determined as the matching point to test fracture load. The determined true strain is validated by comparing with test fracture strain. Finally, we complete the true SS curve by combining the prior necking part and linear part, the latter of which connects necking and predicted fracture points.

  15. Apparent stress-strain relationships in experimental equipment where magnetorheological fluids operate under compression mode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazlan, S A; Ekreem, N B; Olabi, A G

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an experimental investigation of two different magnetorheological (MR) fluids, namely, water-based and hydrocarbon-based MR fluids in compression mode under various applied currents. Finite element method magnetics was used to predict the magnetic field distribution inside the MR fluids generated by a coil. A test rig was constructed where the MR fluid was sandwiched between two flat surfaces. During the compression, the upper surface was moved towards the lower surface in a vertical direction. Stress-strain relationships were obtained for arrangements of equipment where each type of fluid was involved, using compression test equipment. The apparent compressive stress was found to be increased with the increase in magnetic field strength. In addition, the apparent compressive stress of the water-based MR fluid showed a response to the compressive strain of greater magnitude. However, during the compression process, the hydrocarbon-based MR fluid appeared to show a unique behaviour where an abrupt pressure drop was discovered in a region where the apparent compressive stress would be expected to increase steadily. The conclusion is drawn that the apparent compressive stress of MR fluids is influenced strongly by the nature of the carrier fluid and by the magnitude of the applied current

  16. Numerical simulation of stress-strain state of electrophoretic shell molds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sviridov, A. V.; Odinokov, V. I.; Dmitriev, E. A.; Evstigneev, A. I.; Bashkov, O. V.

    2017-10-01

    In the foundry engineering, castings obtained in one-piece non-gas-generating high-refractory electrophoretic shell molds (ShM) by investment patterns (IP) have an increased rejects percentage associated with low deformation resistance and crack resistance of the SM at different stages of their formation and manufacturing. Crack resistance of the ShM based on IP depends mainly on their stress-strain state (SSS) at various stages of mold forming. SSS decrease significantly improves their crack resistance and decreases their rejects percentage of castings occurring due to clogging and surface defects. In addition, the known methods of decreasing the SSS are still poorly understood. Thus, current research trends are to determine SSS at each stage of ShM forming and develop the ways to decrease it. Theoretical predicting of crack formation in multiple-layer axisymmetric shell molds is given in the work [1], and SSS of multiple-layer axisymmetric shell molds is given in the work [2]. Monolayer electrophoretic ShM had a lack of concern in this field, thus it became an argument for the present workMathematical Model of ShM SSS

  17. Leaf area prediction models for Tsuga canadensis in Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura S. Kenefic; R.S. Seymour

    1999-01-01

    Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. (eastern hemlock) is a common species throughout the Acadian forest. Studies of leaf area and growth efficiency in this forest type have been limited by the lack of equations to predict leaf area of this species. We found that sapwood area was an effective leaf area surrogate in T. canadensis, though...

  18. Measurement of stress-strain behaviour of human hair fibres using optical techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J; Kwon, H J

    2013-06-01

    Many studies have presented stress-strain relationship of human hair, but most of them have been based on an engineering stress-strain curve, which is not a true representation of stress-strain behaviour. In this study, a more accurate 'true' stress-strain curve of human hair was determined by applying optical techniques to the images of the hair deformed under tension. This was achieved by applying digital image cross-correlation (DIC) to 10× magnified images of hair fibres taken under increasing tension to estimate the strain increments. True strain was calculated by summation of the strain increments according to the theoretical definition of 'true' strain. The variation in diameter with the increase in longitudinal elongation was also measured from the 40× magnified images to estimate the Poisson's ratio and true stress. By combining the true strain and the true stress, a true stress-strain curve could be determined, which demonstrated much higher stress values than the conventional engineering stress-strain curve at the same degree of deformation. Four regions were identified in the true stress-strain relationship and empirical constitutive equations were proposed for each region. Theoretical analysis on the necking condition using the constitutive equations provided the insight into the failure mechanism of human hair. This analysis indicated that local thinning caused by necking does not occur in the hair fibres, but, rather, relatively uniform deformation takes place until final failure (fracture) eventually occurs. © 2012 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

  19. Multilinear stress-strain and failure calibrations for Ti-6Al-4V.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corona, Edmundo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2018-02-01

    This memo concerns calibration of an elastic-plastic J2 material model for Ti-6Al-4V (grade 5) alloy based on tensile uniaxial stress-strain data obtained in the laboratory. In addition, tension tests on notched specimens provided data to calibrate two ductile failure models: Johnson-Cook and Wellman's tearing parameter. The tests were conducted by Kim Haulen- beek and Dave Johnson (1528) in the Structural Mechanics Laboratory (SML) during late March and early April, 2017. The SML EWP number was 4162. The stock material was a TIMETALR® 6-4 Titanium billet with 9 in. by 9 in. square section and length of 137 in. The product description indicates that it was a forging delivered in annealed condition (2 hours @ 1300oF, AC at the mill). The tensile mechanical properties reported in the material certi cation are given in Table 1, where σo represents the 0.2% strain offset yield stress, σu the ultimate stress, εf the elongation at failure and R.A. the reduction in area.

  20. Stress strain tensors with their application to x-ray stress measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurita, Masanori

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes in detail the method of obtaining the formulas of stress-strain tensor that express the directional dependence of stress-strain, that is, how these values change in response to coordinate transformation, and clarifies the preconditions for supporting both formulas. The two conversion formulas are both the second order of tensor, and the formula of strain tensor not only does not use the relational expression of stress and strain at all, but also is obtained completely independently of the formula of stress tensor. Except for the condition that the strain is very small (elastic deformation) in the conversion formula of strain, both formulas unconditionally come into effect. In other words, both formulas hold true even in the isotropic elastic body or anisotropic elastic body. It was shown that the conversion formula of strain can be derived from the conversion formula of stress using the formula of Hooke for isotropic elastic body. From these three-dimensional expressions, the two-dimensional stress-strain coordinate conversion formula that is used for Mohr's stress-strain circle was derived. It was shown that these formulas hold true for three-dimensional stress condition with stress-strain components in the three-axial direction that are not plane stress nor plane strain condition. In addition, as an application case of this theory, two-dimensional and three-dimensional X-ray stress measurements that are effective for residual stress measurement were shown. (A.O.)

  1. Modeling the Monotonic and Cyclic Tensile Stress-Strain Behavior of 2D and 2.5D Woven C/SiC Ceramic-Matrix Composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L. B.

    2018-05-01

    The deformation of 2D and 2.5 C/SiC woven ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) in monotonic and cyclic loadings has been investigated. Statistical matrix multicracking and fiber failure models and the fracture mechanics interface debonding approach are used to determine the spacing of matrix cracks, the debonded length of interface, and the fraction of broken fibers. The effects of fiber volume fraction and fiber Weibull modulus on the damage evolution in the composites and on their tensile stress-strain curves are analyzed. When matrix multicracking and fiber/matrix interface debonding occur, the fiber slippage relative to the matrix in the debonded interface region of the 0° warp yarns is the main reason for the emergance of stress-strain hysteresis loops for 2D and 2.5D woven CMCs. A model of these loops is developed, and histeresis loops for the composites in cyclic loadings/unloadings are predicted.

  2. Investigation of isochronous stress-strain formulations for elevated temperature structural design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koo, Gyeong Hoi; Kim, Jong Bum

    2012-01-01

    For elevated temperature design evaluations by the ASME-NH rules, the most important material data is the isochronous stress-strain curves, which can provide design creep information. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate appropriate formulations to be able to generate the isochronous stress-strain curves and implement it to the computer program which is coded the ASME-NH design evaluation procedures. To do this, formulations by the strain-time relationship are investigated in detail and the sensitivity studies for rapid initial transient creep contributions, slower and longer transient creep contribution, and secondary creep contributions are carried out for type 316 austenitic stainless steel. From the results of this study, it is found that the strain-time relationship formulations can well describe the isochronous stress-strain curves with the transient creep contributions

  3. Numerical Evaluation of Size Effect on the Stress-Strain Behaviour of Geotextile-Reinforced Sand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hosseinpour, I.; Mirmoradi, S.H.; Barari, Amin

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the effect of sample size on the stress-strain behavior and strength characteristics of geotextile reinforced sand using the finite element numerical analysis. The effect of sample size was investigated by studying the effects of varying the number of geotextile layers, the con......This paper studies the effect of sample size on the stress-strain behavior and strength characteristics of geotextile reinforced sand using the finite element numerical analysis. The effect of sample size was investigated by studying the effects of varying the number of geotextile layers...... on the mechanical behavior of reinforced sand decreases with an increase in the sample size....

  4. Summary report - development of laboratory tests and the stress- strain behaviour of Olkiluoto mica gneiss

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hakala, M.; Heikkilae, E. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Lab. of Rock Engineering

    1997-05-01

    This work summarizes the project aimed at developing and qualifying a suitable combination of laboratory tests to establish a statistically reliable stress-strain behaviour of the main rock types at Posiva Oy`s detailed investigation sites for disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The work includes literature study of stress-strain behaviour of brittle rock, development and qualification of laboratory tests, suggested test procedures and interpretation methods and finally testing of Olkiluoto mica gneiss. The Olkiluoto study includes over 130 loading tests. Besides the commonly used laboratory tests, direct tensile tests, damage controlled tests and acoustic emission measurements were also carried out. (orig.) (54 refs.).

  5. Summary report - development of laboratory tests and the stress- strain behaviour of Olkiluoto mica gneiss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hakala, M.; Heikkilae, E.

    1997-05-01

    This work summarizes the project aimed at developing and qualifying a suitable combination of laboratory tests to establish a statistically reliable stress-strain behaviour of the main rock types at Posiva Oy's detailed investigation sites for disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The work includes literature study of stress-strain behaviour of brittle rock, development and qualification of laboratory tests, suggested test procedures and interpretation methods and finally testing of Olkiluoto mica gneiss. The Olkiluoto study includes over 130 loading tests. Besides the commonly used laboratory tests, direct tensile tests, damage controlled tests and acoustic emission measurements were also carried out. (orig.) (54 refs.)

  6. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  7. The study of the stress - strain state of the tank with bottom water drainage during operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shchipkova, Yu V.; Tokarev, V. V.

    2018-04-01

    Bottom drainage from tank is a current problem in modern tank usage. This article proposes the use of the bottom drainage system from the tank with the shape of the sloped cone to the centre of it. Changing the bottom design alters the stress - strain state to be analyzed in the Ansys. The analysis concluded that the proposed drainage system should be applied.

  8. On the derivative of the stress-strain relation in a no-tension material

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Padovani, C.; Šilhavý, Miroslav

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 7 (2017), s. 1606-1618 ISSN 1081-2865 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : no-tension material * stress-strain relation Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Applied mathematics Impact factor: 2.953, year: 2016 http:// journals .sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1081286515571786

  9. Predicting artificailly drained areas by means of selective model ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Anders Bjørn; Beucher, Amélie; Iversen, Bo Vangsø

    . The approaches employed include decision trees, discriminant analysis, regression models, neural networks and support vector machines amongst others. Several models are trained with each method, using variously the original soil covariates and principal components of the covariates. With a large ensemble...... out since the mid-19th century, and it has been estimated that half of the cultivated area is artificially drained (Olesen, 2009). A number of machine learning approaches can be used to predict artificially drained areas in geographic space. However, instead of choosing the most accurate model....... The study aims firstly to train a large number of models to predict the extent of artificially drained areas using various machine learning approaches. Secondly, the study will develop a method for selecting the models, which give a good prediction of artificially drained areas, when used in conjunction...

  10. Numerical analysis oriented biaxial stress-strain relation and failure criterion of plain concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Link, J.

    1975-01-01

    A biaxial stress-strain relation and failure criterion is proposed, which is applicable to structural analysis methods. The formulation of material behavior of plain concrete in biaxial stress-state was developed. A nonlinear elastic, anisotropic stress-strain relation was derived with two moduli of elasticity, E 1 , E 2 and Poisson's ratios, ν 1 , ν 2 , which depend on the prevailing biaxial stress state. The stress-strain relation is valid in the whole biaxial stress field, that means with a smooth transition between the domains of tension/tension, tension/compression and compression/compression. The stress-dependent moduli E 1 , E 2 and the Poisson's ratios ν 1 , ν 2 are approximated by polynomials, trigonometrical and exponential functions. A failure criterion was defined by approximating the test results of the biaxial ultimate concrete strength with a 7th degree polynomial, which is also valid in the whole biaxial stress domain. The definition of the state of failure is given as a function of stresses as well as strains. Initial parameters of the formulation of the biaxial material behavior are the uniaxial cylindrical strength of concrete and the initial values of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. A simple expansion of this formulation makes it applicable not only to normal but also to light-weight concrete. Comparison of numerically calculated stress-strain curves up to the ultimate biaxial stresses which indicate the failure criteria with those obtained from tests show a very good agreement. It is shown, that the biaxial stress-strain relation can be extended for use in cases of triaxial tension/tension/compression stress state. Numerical examples of analysis of concrete slabs show the importance of incorporation of a realistic material behavior for better safety estimations

  11. Analysis of stress- strain distribution of dowel and glue line in L-type furniture joint by means of finite element method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mossayeb dalvand

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study 3D stress-strain distribution of dowel and glue line on L-type joints made of plywood doweled was investigated. Members of joints made of 11-ply hardwood plywood (Hornbeam, Beech and Alder that were 19 mm in thickness. In this study effect of beech dowels in three levels diameters (6, 8 and 10 mm and penetration of depth (9, 13 and 17 mm on bending moment capacity of L-type joints under compression loading was investigated as experimental test, then stress-strain distribution of wood dowel and glue line in specimens were simulated by means of ANSYS 15 software with finite element method (FEM.Results have shown that bending moment resistance increased with increasing dowel diameter from 6 to 8 mm, but downward trend was observed with increasing 8 to 10 mm in dowel diameter. Bending moment resistance increased with increasing penetration depth. Also, result obtained of simulation by means of ANSYS software have shown that stress-strain in dowel and glue line increased with increasing diameter of dowel and Increasing stress in joints made of diameter dowel 10 mm due to fracture in joints and decrease in resistance once. According to results obtained of model analysis, the ultimate stress of dowel and glue line occurred in the area that joints were contacted.

  12. Analysis of stress-strain behavior in Bi2223 composite tapes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugano, M.; Osamura, K.; Nyilas, A.

    2004-01-01

    Tensile test was carried out for Bi2223/Ag/Ag alloy composite tapes at RT, 77 and 7 K. Two yielding points are observed in the stress-strain curves. From the stress-strain behavior of the components and critical current (I c ) as a function of tensile strain, it was found that the microscopic reason for these yieldings is attributed to yielding of Ag alloy and fracture of Bi2223, respectively. The strain at the second yielding has temperature dependence and it becomes larger with decreasing measured temperature. From the thermo-mechanical analysis, it can be explained by temperature dependence of compressive residual strain of Bi2223. Reversible recovery of I c was found during loading-unloading test. The relationship between the reversible strain limit and the intrinsic strain of Bi2223 was discussed

  13. The mechanical behaviour of NBR/FEF under compressive cyclic stress strain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, W. E.; El-Eraki, M. H. I.; El-Lawindy, A. M. Y.; Hassan, H. H.

    2006-06-01

    Acrylonitrile butadiene rubber compounds filled with different concentrations of fast extrusion furnace (FEF) carbon black were experimentally investigated. The stress-strain curves of the composites were studied, which suggest good filler-matrix adhesion. The large reinforcement effect of the filler followed the Guth model for non-spherical particles. The effect of FEF carbon black on the cyclic fatigue and hysteresis was also examined. The loading and unloading stress-strain relationships for any cycle were described by applying Ogden's model for rubber samples. The dissipation energy that indicates the vibration damping capacity for all samples was determined. A simple model was proposed, to investigate the relation between maximum stress and the number of cyclic fatigue.

  14. The mechanical behaviour of NBR/FEF under compressive cyclic stress-strain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoud, W E [Faculty of Science, Physics Department, Suez Canal University, Ismailia (Egypt); El-Eraki, M H I [Faculty of Science, Physics Department, Suez Canal University, Ismailia (Egypt); El-Lawindy, A M Y [Faculty of Science, Physics Department, Suez Canal University, Ismailia (Egypt); Hassan, H H [Faculty of Science, Physics Department, Cairo University, Giza (Egypt)

    2006-06-07

    Acrylonitrile butadiene rubber compounds filled with different concentrations of fast extrusion furnace (FEF) carbon black were experimentally investigated. The stress-strain curves of the composites were studied, which suggest good filler-matrix adhesion. The large reinforcement effect of the filler followed the Guth model for non-spherical particles. The effect of FEF carbon black on the cyclic fatigue and hysteresis was also examined. The loading and unloading stress-strain relationships for any cycle were described by applying Ogden's model for rubber samples. The dissipation energy that indicates the vibration damping capacity for all samples was determined. A simple model was proposed, to investigate the relation between maximum stress and the number of cyclic fatigue.

  15. The study of stress-strain state of stabilized layered soil foundations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolov Mikhail V.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Herein presented are the results of modeling and analysis of stress-strain state of layered inhomogeneous foundation soil when it is stabilised by injection to different depths. Produced qualitative and quantitative analysis of the components of the field of isolines of stresses, strains, stress concentration and the difference between the strain at the boundary of different elastic horizontal layers. Recommendations are given for the location of stabilised zones in relation to the border of different elastic layers. In particular, it found that stabilization of soil within the weak layer is inappropriate, since it practically provides no increase in the stability of the soil foundation, and when performing stabilisation of soil foundations, it is recommended to place the lower border of the stabilisation zone below the border of a stronger layer, at this the distribution of stresses and strains occurs more evenly, and load-bearing capacity of this layer is used to the maximum.

  16. Stress-strain curve of concretes with recycled concrete aggregates: analysis of the NBR 8522 methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. GUJEL

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This work analyses the methodology "A" (item A.4 employed by the Brazilian Standard ABNT 8522 (ABNT, 2008 for determining the stress-strain behavior of cylindrical specimens of concrete, presenting considerations about possible enhancements aiming it use for concretes with recycled aggregates with automatic test equipment. The methodology specified by the Brazilian Standard presents methodological issues that brings distortions in obtaining the stress-strain curve, as the use of a very limited number of sampling points and by inducing micro cracks and fluency in the elastic behavior of the material due to the use of steady stress levels in the test. The use of a base stress of 0.5 MPa is too low for modern high load test machines designed do high strength concrete test. The work presents a discussion over these subjects, and a proposal of a modified test procedure to avoid such situations.

  17. Stress-Strain Law for Confined Concrete with Hardening or Softening Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piero Colajanni

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a new general stress-strain law for concrete confined by steel, fiber reinforced polymer (FRP, or fiber reinforced cementitious matrix (FRCM, obtained by a suitable modification of the well-known Sargin’s curve for steel confined concrete. The proposed law is able to reproduce stress-strain curve of any shape, having both hardening or softening behavior, by using a single closed-form simple algebraic expression with constant coefficients. The coefficients are defined on the basis of the stress and the tangent modulus of the confined concrete in three characteristic points of the curve, thus being related to physical meaningful parameters. It will be shown that if the values of the parameters of the law are deduced from experimental tests, the model is able to accurately reproduce the experimental curve. If they are evaluated on the basis of an analysis-oriented model, the proposed model provides a handy equivalent design model.

  18. The mechanical behaviour of NBR/FEF under compressive cyclic stress-strain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoud, W E; El-Eraki, M H I; El-Lawindy, A M Y; Hassan, H H

    2006-01-01

    Acrylonitrile butadiene rubber compounds filled with different concentrations of fast extrusion furnace (FEF) carbon black were experimentally investigated. The stress-strain curves of the composites were studied, which suggest good filler-matrix adhesion. The large reinforcement effect of the filler followed the Guth model for non-spherical particles. The effect of FEF carbon black on the cyclic fatigue and hysteresis was also examined. The loading and unloading stress-strain relationships for any cycle were described by applying Ogden's model for rubber samples. The dissipation energy that indicates the vibration damping capacity for all samples was determined. A simple model was proposed, to investigate the relation between maximum stress and the number of cyclic fatigue

  19. In situ subsoil stress-strain behaviour in relation to soil precompression stress

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keller, T; Arvidsson, J; Schjønning, Per

    2012-01-01

    is assumed to be elastic and reversible as long as [sigma] work examined soil stress-strain behavior as measured in situ during wheeling experiments and related it to the stress-strain behavior and [sigma]pc measured on soil cores in uniaxial compression tests in the laboratory. The data......Soil compaction negatively influences many important soil functions, including crop growth. Compaction occurs when the applied stress, [sigma], overcomes the soil strength. Soil strength in relation to compaction is typically expressed by the soil precompression stress, [sigma]pc. Deformation...... analyzed were from a large number of wheeling experiments carried out in Sweden and Denmark on soils with a wide range of texture. Contradicting the concept of precompression stress, we observed residual strain, [Latin Small Letter Open E]res, at [sigma

  20. Effect of nonlinear stress-strain relationship on bending strength of isotropic graphite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Taketoshi; Oku, Tatsuo

    1978-05-01

    Four-point bending tests were made on rectangular isotropic 7477PT graphite specimens of different sizes to observe the relation between load and outermost fiber strain. Analytical methods, allowing for nonlinear stress-strain relationships different between tension and compression, were developed for calculating the fiber stress distribution in a beam and the failure probability based on the Weibull statistical theory for bending fracture. With increase of the stress, the stress-strain curves for tension deviate from the linearity and also from those for compression. The true bending strengths of the rectangular bars are 10 -- 20 percent lower than elastic bending strengths. Revised Weibull theory gives failure probability distributions agreeing with measured ones, compared with the theory based on elastic behavior. (auth.)

  1. The stress-strain relationship for multilayers of the high Tc superconducting oxides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hidaka, H.; Yamamura, H.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reports the calculation of the stress-strain relationship for multilayers of the high Tc superconducting oxides. The elucidation of this relationship is expected quite helpful for the preparation of high-quality multilayers of these materials. This calculation is possible to do in the same way of Timoshenko's bi-metal treatment. The authors did computation of the residual stress and strain, and the state of stress and strain for these multilayers has been acquired in detail by this calculation

  2. Stress, strain, and structural dynamics an interactive handbook of formulas, solutions, and Matlab toolboxes

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Bingen

    2005-01-01

    Stress, Strain, and Structural Dynamics is a comprehensive and definitive reference to statics and dynamics of solids and structures, including mechanics of materials, structural mechanics, elasticity, rigid-body dynamics, vibrations, structural dynamics, and structural controls. This text integrates the development of fundamental theories, formulas and mathematical models with user-friendly interactive computer programs, written in the powerful and popular MATLAB. This unique merger of technical referencing and interactive computing allows instant solution of a variety of engineering problems

  3. Simulation of Stress-Strain State of Shovel Rotary Support Kingpin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoreshok, A. A.; Buyankin, P. V.; Vorobiev, A. V.; Dronov, A. A.

    2016-04-01

    The article presents the sequence of computational simulation of stress-strain state of shovel’s rotary support. Computation results are analyzed, the kingpin is specified as the most loaded element, maximum stress zones are identified. Kingpin design modification such as enhancement of fillet curvature radius to 25 mm and displacement of eyebolt holes on the diameter of 165 mm are proposed, thus diminishing impact of stress concentrators and improving reliability of the rotary support.

  4. Measurement of the uniaxial mechanical properties of rat skin using different stress-strain definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, A; Navidbakhsh, M

    2015-05-01

    The mechanical properties of skin tissue may vary according to the anatomical locations of a body. There are different stress-strain definitions to measure the mechanical properties of skin tissue. However, there is no agreement as to which stress-strain definition should be implemented to measure the mechanical properties of skin at different anatomical locations. Three stress definitions (second Piola-Kichhoff stress, engineering stress, and true stress) and four strain definitions (Almansi-Hamel strain, Green-St. Venant strain, engineering strain, and true strain) are employed to determine the mechanical properties of skin tissue at back and abdomen locations of a rat body. The back and abdomen skins of eight rats are excised and subjected to a series of tensile tests. The elastic modulus, maximum stress, and strain of skin tissues are measured using three stress definitions and four strain definitions. The results show that the effect of varying the stress definition on the maximum stress measurements of the back skin is significant but not when calculating the elastic modulus and maximum strain. No significant effects are observed on the elastic modulus, maximum stress, and strain measurements of abdomen skin by varying the stress definition. In the true stress-strain diagram, the maximum stress (20%), and elastic modulus (35%) of back skin are significantly higher than that of abdomen skin. The true stress-strain definition is favored to measure the mechanical properties of skin tissue since it gives more accurate measurements of the skin's response using the instantaneous values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Determination of Stress-Strain Characteristics of Railhead Steel using Image Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Bandula-Heva; T.; Dhanasekar; M.

    2011-01-01

    True stress-strain curve of railhead steel is required to investigate the behaviour of railhead under wheel loading through elasto-plastic Finite Element (FE) analysis. To reduce the rate of wear, the railhead material is hardened through annealing and quenching. The Australian standard rail sections are not fully hardened and hence suffer from non-uniform distribution of the material property; usage of average properties in the FE modelling can potentially induce error in the predic...

  6. Casting and stress-strain simulations of a cast ductile iron component using microstructure based mechanical behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olofsson, Jakob; Svensson, Ingvar L

    2012-01-01

    The industrial demand for increased component performance with concurrent reductions in component weight, development times and verifications using physical prototypes drives the need to use the full potential of casting and Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations to correctly predict the mechanical behavior of cast components in service. The mechanical behavior of the component is determined by the casting process, and factors as component geometry and casting process parameters are known to affect solidification and microstructure formation throughout the component and cause local variations in mechanical behavior as well as residual stresses. Though residual stresses are known to be an important factor in the mechanical behavior of the component, the importance of local mechanical behavior is not well established and the material is typically considered homogeneous throughout the component. This paper deals with the influence of solidification and solid state transformation on microstructure formation and the effect of local microstructure variations on the mechanical behavior of the cast component in service. The current work aims to investigate the coupling between simulation of solidification, microstructure and local variations in mechanical behavior and stress-strain simulation. This is done by performing several simulations of a ductile iron component using a recently developed simulation strategy, a closed chain of simulations for cast components, able to predict and describe the local variations in not only elastic but also plastic behavior throughout the component by using microstructural parameters determined by simulations of microstructural evolution in the component during the casting process. In addition the residual stresses are considered. The results show that the FEM simulation results are significantly affected by including microstructure based mechanical behavior. When the applied load is low and the component is subjected to stress levels

  7. Formation of stress/strain cycles for analytical assessment of fatigue crack initiation and growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashkinov, A.V.

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses standard techniques for setting up cycles of stresses, strains and stress intensity factors (SIF) for use in analysing the fatigue characteristics of crack-free components or the fatigue crack growth if crack-like flaws are present. A number of improved techniques are proposed. An enhanced procedure for analytical description of true metal stress-strain curves, covering plastic effects, is presented. This procedure involves standard physical and mechanical properties of the metal in question, such as ultimate stress, yield stress and elasticity modulus. It is emphasized that the currently practiced rain-flow method of design cycle formation, which is effective for an actual (truly known) cyclic loading history, is not suitable for a projected (anticipated) history, as it leaves out of account possible variations in the sequence of operating conditions. Improved techniques for establishing design stress/strain and SIF cycles are described, which make allowance for the most unfavourable sequence of events in the projected loading history. The paper points to a basic difference in the methods of design cycle formation, employed in assessment of the current condition of a component (with the actual history accounted for) and in estimation of the residual lifetime or life extension (for a projected history). (authors)

  8. Stress-strain relationship of high-strength steel (HSS) reinforcing bars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anggraini, Retno; Tavio, Raka, I. Gede Putu; Agustiar

    2018-05-01

    The introduction of High-Strength Steel (HSS) reinforcing bars in reinforced concrete members has gained much attention in recent years and led to many advantages such as construction timesaving. It is also more economical since it can reduce the amount of reinforcing steel bars used in concrete members which in turn alleviates the congestion of reinforcement. Up to present, the building codes, e.g. American Concrete Institute (ACI) 318M-14 and Standard National Indonesia (SNI) 2847:2013, still restrict the use of higher-strength steel reinforcing bars for concrete design up to Grade 420 MPa due to the possible suspected brittle behavior of concrete members. This paper evaluates the characteristics of stress-strain relationships of HSS bars if they are comparable to the characteristics of those of Grade 420 MPa. To achieve the objective of the study, a series of steel bars from various grades (420, 550, 650, and 700 MPa) was selected. Tensile tests of these steel samples were conducted under displacement-controlled mode to capture the complete stress-strain curves and particularly the post-yield response of the steel bars. The results indicate that all the steel bars tested had the actual yield strengths greater than the corresponding specified values. The stress-strain curves of HSS reinforcing bars (Grade 550, 650, and 700 MPa) performed slightly different characteristics with those of Grade 420 MPa.

  9. Computer modeling of the stress-strain state of welded construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurguzhin, Marat; Danenova, Gulmira; Akhmetzhanov, Talgat

    2017-11-01

    At the present time the maintenance of the welded construction serviceability over normative service life is provided by the maintenance system on the basis of the guiding documents according to the concept of "fail safe". However, technology factors relating to welding such as high residual stresses and significant plastic strains are not considered in the guiding documents. The design procedure of the stressed-strained state of welded constructions is suggested in the paper. The procedure investigates welded constructions during welding and the external load using the program ANSYS. In this paper, the model of influence of the residual stress strain state on the factor of stress intensity is proposed. The calculation method of the residual stressed-strained state (SSS) taking into account the phase transition is developed by the authors. Melting and hardening of a plate material during heating and cooling is considered. The thermomechanical problem of heating a plate by a stationary heat source is solved. The setup of the heating spot center on distance (190 mm) from the crack top in a direction of its propagation leads to the fact that the value of total factor of stress intensity will considerably decrease under action of the specified residual compressing stresses. It can lower the speed of the crack propagation to zero. The suggested method of survivability maintenance can be applied during operation with the purpose of increasing the service life of metal constructions up to running repair of technological machines.

  10. Limitations of Hollomon and Ludwigson stress-strain relations in assessing the strain hardening parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samuel, K G

    2006-01-01

    It is shown that the deviation from the ideal Hollomon relation in describing the stress-strain behaviour is characteristic of all materials at low strains. The Ludwigson relation describing the deviation from the Hollomon relation at low strains is critically analysed and it is shown that the deviation at low strains is a consequence of some unknown 'plastic strain equivalent' present in the material. Stress strain curves obeying an ideal Hollomon relation as well as that of a structurally modified (prior cold worked) material were simulated and compared. The results show that the yield strength and the flow strength of a material at constant strain rate and temperature are dictated by the magnitude of the 'plastic strain equivalent' term. It is shown that this component need not necessarily mean a prior plastic strain present in the material due to prior cold work alone and that prior cold work strain will add to this. If this component is identified, the stress-strain behaviour can be adequately described by the Swift relation. It is shown that in both formalisms, the strain hardening index is a function of the yield strength of the material

  11. Observations of hydrotectonic stress/strain events at a basement high at the Nicoya outer rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tryon, M. D.; Brown, K. M.

    2005-12-01

    instruments. A few indicate downflow while the others show upflow. This sort of response would be expected during a stress event causing regions of compression and dilation. These results suggest that ridge flank basement highs may be good sites to monitor stress/strain events as well as basement hydrology.

  12. PROCESS FEATURES OF FLUCTUATIONS PROPAGATION AT STRESS-STRAIN WORK OF THE RAILWAY TRACK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. O. Bondarenko

    2015-12-01

    reliability of trains as part of security checkpoints in the area of rolling stock gauge because of its technical state. Therefore, for examining issues of reliable performance elements of the permanent way and substructures of the railway track are proposed its stress-strain work. It gives the possibility to consider a dynamic process, localized both in time and space.

  13. Can foot anthropometric measurements predict dynamic plantar surface contact area?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins Natalie

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Previous studies have suggested that increased plantar surface area, associated with pes planus, is a risk factor for the development of lower extremity overuse injuries. The intent of this study was to determine if a single or combination of foot anthropometric measures could be used to predict plantar surface area. Methods Six foot measurements were collected on 155 subjects (97 females, 58 males, mean age 24.5 ± 3.5 years. The measurements as well as one ratio were entered into a stepwise regression analysis to determine the optimal set of measurements associated with total plantar contact area either including or excluding the toe region. The predicted values were used to calculate plantar surface area and were compared to the actual values obtained dynamically using a pressure sensor platform. Results A three variable model was found to describe the relationship between the foot measures/ratio and total plantar contact area (R2 = 0.77, p R2 = 0.76, p Conclusion The results of this study indicate that the clinician can use a combination of simple, reliable, and time efficient foot anthropometric measurements to explain over 75% of the plantar surface contact area, either including or excluding the toe region.

  14. Stress-strain time-dependent behavior of A356.0 aluminum alloy subjected to cyclic thermal and mechanical loadings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, G. H.; Ghodrati, M.; Azadi, M.; Rezvani Rad, M.

    2014-08-01

    This article presents the cyclic behavior of the A356.0 aluminum alloy under low-cycle fatigue (or isothermal) and thermo-mechanical fatigue loadings. Since the thermo-mechanical fatigue (TMF) test is time consuming and has high costs in comparison to low-cycle fatigue (LCF) tests, the purpose of this research is to use LCF test results to predict the TMF behavior of the material. A time-independent model, considering the combined nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening law, was used to predict the TMF behavior of the material. Material constants of this model were calibrated based on room-temperature and high-temperature low-cycle fatigue tests. The nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening law could accurately estimate the stress-strain hysteresis loop for the LCF condition; however, for the out-of-phase TMF, the condition could not predict properly the stress value due to the strain rate effect. Therefore, a two-layer visco-plastic model and also the Johnson-Cook law were applied to improve the estimation of the stress-strain hysteresis loop. Related finite element results based on the two-layer visco-plastic model demonstrated a good agreement with experimental TMF data of the A356.0 alloy.

  15. Sub-kilometer Numerical Weather Prediction in complex urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroyer, S.; Bélair, S.; Husain, S.; Vionnet, V.

    2013-12-01

    A Sub-kilometer atmospheric modeling system with grid-spacings of 2.5 km, 1 km and 250 m and including urban processes is currently being developed at the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in order to provide more accurate weather forecasts at the city scale. Atmospheric lateral boundary conditions are provided with the 15-km Canadian Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS). Surface physical processes are represented with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) model for the built-up covers and with the Interactions between the Surface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model for the natural covers. In this study, several research experiments over large metropolitan areas and using observational networks at the urban scale are presented, with a special emphasis on the representation of local atmospheric circulations and their impact on extreme weather forecasting. First, numerical simulations are performed over the Vancouver metropolitan area during a summertime Intense Observing Period (IOP of 14-15 August 2008) of the Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities (EPiCC) observational network. The influence of the horizontal resolution on the fine-scale representation of the sea-breeze development over the city is highlighted (Leroyer et al., 2013). Then severe storms cases occurring in summertime within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are simulated. In view of supporting the 2015 PanAmerican and Para-Pan games to be hold in GTA, a dense observational network has been recently deployed over this region to support model evaluations at the urban and meso scales. In particular, simulations are conducted for the case of 8 July 2013 when exceptional rainfalls were recorded. Leroyer, S., S. Bélair, J. Mailhot, S.Z. Husain, 2013: Sub-kilometer Numerical Weather Prediction in an Urban Coastal Area: A case study over the Vancouver Metropolitan Area, submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

  16. Does area V3A predict positions of moving objects?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerrit W Maus

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A gradually fading moving object is perceived to disappear at positions beyond its luminance detection threshold, whereas abrupt offsets are usually localised accurately. What role does retinotopic activity in visual cortex play in this motion-induced mislocalization of the endpoint of fading objects? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, we localised regions of interest (ROIs in retinotopic maps abutting the trajectory endpoint of a bar moving either towards or away from this position while gradually decreasing or increasing in luminance. Area V3A showed predictive activity, with stronger fMRI responses for motion towards versus away from the ROI. This effect was independent of the change in luminance. In Area V1 we found higher activity for high-contrast onsets and offsets near the ROI, but no significant differences between motion directions. We suggest that perceived final positions of moving objects are based on an interplay of predictive position representations in higher motion-sensitive retinotopic areas and offset transients in primary visual cortex.

  17. Ultrasound elastography of the lower uterine segment in women with a previous cesarean section: Comparison of in-/ex-vivo elastography versus tensile-stress-strain-rupture analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seliger, Gregor; Chaoui, Katharina; Lautenschläger, Christine; Jenderka, Klaus-Vitold; Kunze, Christian; Hiller, Grit Gesine Ruth; Tchirikov, Michael

    2018-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess, if the biomechanical properties of the lower uterine segment (LUS) in women with a previous cesarean section (CS) can be determined by ultrasound (US) elastography. The first aim was to establish an ex-vivo LUS tensile-stress-strain-rupture(break point) analysis with the possibility of simultaneously using US elastography. The second aim was to investigate the relationship between measurement results of LUS stiffness using US elastography in-/ex-vivo with results of tensile-stress-strain-rupture analysis, and to compare different US elastography LUS-stiffness-measurement methods ex-vivo. An explorative experimental, in-/ex-vivo US study of women with previous CS was conducted. LUS elasticity was measured by point Shear Wave Elastography (pSWE) and bidimensional Shear-Wave-Elastography (2D-SWE) first in-vivo during preoperative examination within 24 h before repeat CS (including resection of the thinnest part of the LUS = uterine scar area during CS), second within 1 h after operation during the ex-vivo experiment, followed by tensile-stress-strain-rupture analysis. Pearson's correlation coefficient and scatter plots, Bland-Altman plots and paired T-tests, were used. Thirty three women were included in the study; elastography measurements n = 1412. The feasibility of ex-vivo assessment of LUS by quantitative US elastography using pSWE and 2D-SWE to detect stiffness of LUS was demonstrated. The strongest correlation with tensile-stress-strain analysis was found in the US elastography examination carried out with 2D-SWE (0.78, p break point - as a surrogate marker for the risk of rupture of the LUS after CS - is linearly dependent on the thickness of the LUS in the scar area (Coefficient of correlation: 0.79, p even at less stroke/strain than would be expected by their thickness. This study confirms that US elastography can help in determining viscoelastic properties of the LUS in women with a previous CS. The

  18. On the cyclic stress-strain behavior and low cycle fatigue of aerospace materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burbach, J.

    1972-01-01

    The elastic-plastic deformation behavior under cyclic stress of a number of different engineering materials was experimentally investigated with the aid of high-precision methods of measuring, some of which had been newly developed. Experiments made with a variety of steels, the titanium alloy Ti-A16-V4, a cobalt (tungsten) alloy, the high-temperature material Nimonic 90 and Dural (A1-Cu) are reported. The theory given in an attempt to explain these experiments is aimed at finding general formulas for the cyclic stress-strain behavior materials.

  19. Undirected learning styles and academic risk: Analysis of the impact of stress, strain and coping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimatian, Stephen; Lloyd, Sara; Berger, Jeffrey; Steiner, Lorraine; McKay, Robert; Schwengal, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    Learning style inventories used in conjunction with a measure of academic achievement consistently show an association of meaning directed learning patterns with academic success, but have failed to show a clear association of undirected learning styles with academic failure. Using survey methods with anesthesia residents, this study questioned whether additional assessment of factors related to stress, strain, and coping help to better define the association between undirected learning styles and academic risk. Pearson chi squared tests. 296 subjects were enrolled from eight institutions with 142 (48%) completing the study. American Board of Anesthesiologists In Training Examinations (ITE) percentiles (ITE%) were used as a measure of academic achievement. The Vermunt Inventory of Learning Styles (ILS) was used to identify four learning patterns and 20 strategies, and the Osipow Stress Inventory-Revised (OSI-R) was used as a measure of six scales of occupational stress, four of personal strain, and four coping resources. Two learning patterns had significant relationship with ITE scores. As seen in previous studies, Meaning Directed Learning was beneficial for academic achievement while Undirected Learning was the least beneficial. Higher scores on Meaning Directed Learning correlated positively with higher ITE scores while higher Undirected and lower Meaning Directed patterns related negatively to ITE%. OSI-R measures of stress, strain and coping indicated that residents with Undirected learning patterns had higher scores on three scales related to stress, and 4 related to strain, while displaying lower scores on two scales related to coping. Residents with higher Meaning Directed patterns scored lower on two scales of stress and two scales of strain, with higher scores on two scales for coping resources. Low Meaning Directed and high Undirected learning patterns correlated with lower ITE percentiles, higher scores for stress and strain, and lower coping resources

  20. Main results of BN-600 reactor stress-strain state investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panov, V.A.

    1983-01-01

    The development of BN-600 fast reactor plant needed the solution of a series of complex engineering problems including ones for confirming integrity of the most vital structural components. The particular attention was given to the main vessel since reactor availability end safe operation of the plant as a whole depend on vessel strength end integrity. The present report deals with the main results of theoretical and experimental investigations of the stress-strain state of BN-600 reactor vessel carried out during design, start-up and initial bringing the reactor to power

  1. Stress-strain properties of railway steel at strain rates of upto 105 per second

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashmi, M.S.J.; Islam, M.N.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents the stress-strain characteristics of railway steel at strain rates of up to 10 5 /s at room temperature determined by a new technique. In determining the results, account has been taken of the strain-rate variation, the total strain and the strain rate history. The effect of friction, material inertia and temperature rise is also assessed and an empirical constitutive equation describing the strain-rate and strain sensitive flow stress for this type of steel is proposed. (orig.)

  2. Spall damage of a mild carbon steel: Effects of peak stress, strain rate and pulse duration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, C.; Li, B.; Huang, J.Y.; Ma, H.H.; Zhu, M.H.; Zhu, J.; Luo, S.N.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate spall damage of a mild carbon steel under high strain-rate loading, regarding the effects of peak stress, strain rate, and pulse duration on spall strength and damage, as well as related microstructure features, using gas gun plate impact, laser velocimetry, and electron backscatter diffraction analysis. Our experiments demonstrate strong dependences of spall strength on peak stress and strain rate, and its weak dependence on pulse duration. We establish numerical relations between damage and peak stress or pulse duration. Brittle and ductile spall fracture modes are observed at different loading conditions. Damage nucleates at grain boundaries and triple junctions, either as transgranular cleavage cracks or voids.

  3. Spall damage of a mild carbon steel: Effects of peak stress, strain rate and pulse duration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, C. [College of Physical Science and Technology, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610064 (China); Key Laboratory of Advanced Technologies of Materials, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031 (China); The Peac Institute of Multiscale Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031 (China); Li, B.; Huang, J.Y. [The Peac Institute of Multiscale Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031 (China); CAS Key Laboratory of Mechanical Behavior and Design of Materials, Department of Modern Mechanics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230027 (China); Ma, H.H. [CAS Key Laboratory of Mechanical Behavior and Design of Materials, Department of Modern Mechanics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230027 (China); Zhu, M.H. [Key Laboratory of Advanced Technologies of Materials, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031 (China); Zhu, J., E-mail: zhujun01@163.com [College of Physical Science and Technology, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610064 (China); Luo, S.N., E-mail: sluo@pims.ac.cn [The Peac Institute of Multiscale Sciences, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031 (China); Key Laboratory of Advanced Technologies of Materials, Ministry of Education, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031 (China)

    2016-04-13

    We investigate spall damage of a mild carbon steel under high strain-rate loading, regarding the effects of peak stress, strain rate, and pulse duration on spall strength and damage, as well as related microstructure features, using gas gun plate impact, laser velocimetry, and electron backscatter diffraction analysis. Our experiments demonstrate strong dependences of spall strength on peak stress and strain rate, and its weak dependence on pulse duration. We establish numerical relations between damage and peak stress or pulse duration. Brittle and ductile spall fracture modes are observed at different loading conditions. Damage nucleates at grain boundaries and triple junctions, either as transgranular cleavage cracks or voids.

  4. Determination of stress-strain state of the wooden church log walls with software package

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chulkova Anastasia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The restoration of architectural monuments is going on all over the world today. The main aim of restoration is the renewal of stable functioning of building constructions in normal state. In this article, we have tried to figure out with special software the bearing capacity of log cabins of the Church of Transfiguration on Kizhi island. As shown in research results, determination of stress-strain stage with software package is necessary for the bearing capacity computation as well as field tests.

  5. Usefulness of radionuclide angiocardiography in predicting stenotic mitral orifice area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, R.J.; Armitage, D.L.; Fountas, P.N.; Tremblay, P.C.; Druck, M.N.

    1986-01-01

    Fifteen patients with pure mitral stenosis (MS) underwent high-temporal-resolution radionuclide angiocardiography for calculation of the ratio of peak left ventricular (LV) filling rate divided by mean LV filling rate (filling ratio). Whereas LV filling normally occurs in 3 phases, in MS it is more uniform. Thus, in 13 patients the filling ratio was below the normal range of 2.21 to 2.88 (p less than 0.001). In 11 patients in atrial fibrillation, filling ratio divided by mean cardiac cycle length and by LV ejection fraction provided good correlation (r = 0.85) with modified Gorlin formula derived mitral area and excellent correlation with echocardiographic mitral area (r = 0.95). Significant MS can be detected using radionuclide angiocardiography to calculate filling ratio. In the absence of the confounding influence of atrial systole calculation of 0.14 (filling ratio divided by cardiac cycle length divided by LV ejection fraction) + 0.40 cm2 enables accurate prediction of mitral area (+/- 4%). Our data support the contention that the modified Gorlin formula, based on steady-state hemodynamics, provides less certain estimates of mitral area for patients with MS and atrial fibrillation, in whom echocardiography and radionuclide angiocardiography may be more accurate

  6. Superelastic stress-strain behavior in ferrogels with different types of magneto-elastic coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremer, Peet; Löwen, Hartmut; Menzel, Andreas M.

    Colloidal magnetic particles embedded in an elastic polymer matrix constitute a smart material called ferrogel. It responds to an applied external magnetic field by changes in elastic properties, which can be exploited for various applications like dampers, vibration absorbers, or actuators. Under appropriate conditions, the stress-strain behavior of a ferrogel can display a fascinating feature: superelasticity, the capability to reversibly deform by a huge amount while barely altering the applied load. In a previous work, using numerical simulations, we investigated this behavior assuming that the magnetic moments carried by the embedded particles can freely reorient to minimize their magnetic interaction energy. Here, we extend the analysis to ferrogels where restoring torques by the surrounding matrix hinder rotations towards a magnetically favored configuration. For example, the particles can be chemically cross-linked into the polymer matrix and the magnetic moments can be fixed to the particle axes. We demonstrate that these systems still feature a superelastic regime. As before, the nonlinear stress-strain behavior can be reversibly tailored during operation by external magnetic fields. Yet, the different coupling of the magnetic moments causes different types of response to external stimuli. For instance, an external magnetic field applied parallel to the stretching axis hardly affects the superelastic regime but stiffens the system beyond it. Other smart materials featuring superelasticity, e.g. metallic shape-memory alloys, have already found widespread applications. Our soft polymer systems offer many additional advantages like a typically higher deformability and enhanced biocompatibility combined with high tunability.

  7. Modeling of the stress-strain state of the ground mass contaminated with peracetic acid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Levenko Anna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available None of the methods described previously provides a solution to the problem that deals with the SSS evaluation of the ground mass which is under the influence of chemically active substances and, in particular, under the influence of peracetic acid. The stress-strain state of the ground mass contaminated with peracetic acid was estimated. Stresses occurring in the ground mass in the natural state were determined after the entry of acid into it and after the chemical fixation of it with sodium silicate. All the parameters of the stress-strain state of the ground mass were obtained under a number of physical and mechanical conditions. It was determined that following the work on the silicatization of the ground mass contaminated with peracetic acid the quantity of strain decreased by 26.11 to 48.9%. The comparison of the results of stress calculations indicates the stress reduction in the ground mass in 1.8 – 2.6 times after its fixing.

  8. STRESS - STRAIN CURVE ANALYSIS OF WOVEN FABRICS MAD E FROM COMBED YARNS TYPE WOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VÎLCU Adrian

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the tensile behavior of woven fabrics made from 45%Wool + 55% PES used for garments. Analysis of fabric behavior during wearing has shown that these are submitted to simple and repeated uni-axial or bi-axial tensile strains. The level of these strains is often within the elastic limit, rarely going over yielding. Therefore the designer must be able to evaluate the mechanical behavior of such fabrics in order to control the fabric behavior in the garment. This evaluation is carried out based on the tensile testing, using certain indexes specific to the stress-strain curve. The paper considers an experimental matrix based on woven fabrics of different yarn counts, different or equal yarn count for warp and weft systems and different structures. The fabrics were tested using a testing machine and the results were then compared in order to determine the fabrics’ tensile behavior and the factors of influence that affect it.From the point of view of tensile testing, the woven materials having twill weave are preferable because this type of structure is characterized by higher durability and better yarn stability in the fabric. In practice, the woven material must exhibit an optimum behavior to repeated strains, flexions and abrasions during wearing process. The analysis of fabrics tensile properties studied by investigation of stress-strain diagrams reveals that the main factors influencing the tensile strength are: yarns fineness, technological density of those two systems of yarns and the weaving type.

  9. A deep learning approach to estimate chemically-treated collagenous tissue nonlinear anisotropic stress-strain responses from microscopy images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Liang; Liu, Minliang; Sun, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Biological collagenous tissues comprised of networks of collagen fibers are suitable for a broad spectrum of medical applications owing to their attractive mechanical properties. In this study, we developed a noninvasive approach to estimate collagenous tissue elastic properties directly from microscopy images using Machine Learning (ML) techniques. Glutaraldehyde-treated bovine pericardium (GLBP) tissue, widely used in the fabrication of bioprosthetic heart valves and vascular patches, was chosen to develop a representative application. A Deep Learning model was designed and trained to process second harmonic generation (SHG) images of collagen networks in GLBP tissue samples, and directly predict the tissue elastic mechanical properties. The trained model is capable of identifying the overall tissue stiffness with a classification accuracy of 84%, and predicting the nonlinear anisotropic stress-strain curves with average regression errors of 0.021 and 0.031. Thus, this study demonstrates the feasibility and great potential of using the Deep Learning approach for fast and noninvasive assessment of collagenous tissue elastic properties from microstructural images. In this study, we developed, to our best knowledge, the first Deep Learning-based approach to estimate the elastic properties of collagenous tissues directly from noninvasive second harmonic generation images. The success of this study holds promise for the use of Machine Learning techniques to noninvasively and efficiently estimate the mechanical properties of many structure-based biological materials, and it also enables many potential applications such as serving as a quality control tool to select tissue for the manufacturing of medical devices (e.g. bioprosthetic heart valves). Copyright © 2017 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Effect of Temperature Reversion on Hot Ductility and Flow Stress-Strain Curves of C-Mn Continuously Cast Steels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhihua; Li, Wei; Long, Mujun; Gui, Lintao; Chen, Dengfu; Huang, Yunwei; Vitos, Levente

    2015-08-01

    The influence of temperature reversion in secondary cooling and its reversion rate on hot ductility and flow stress-strain curve of C-Mn steel has been investigated. Tensile specimens were cooled at various regimes. One cooling regime involved cooling at a constant rate of 100 °C min-1 to the test temperature, while the others involved temperature reversion processes at three different reversion rates before deformation. After hot tensile test, the evolution of mechanical properties of steel was analyzed at various scales by means of microstructure observation, ab initio prediction, and thermodynamic calculation. Results indicated that the temperature reversion in secondary cooling led to hot ductility trough occurring at higher temperature with greater depth. With increasing temperature reversion rate, the low temperature end of ductility trough extended toward lower temperature, leading to wider hot ductility trough with slightly reducing depth. Microstructure examinations indicated that the intergranular fracture related to the thin film-like ferrite and (Fe,Mn)S particles did not changed with varying cooling regimes; however, the Widmanstatten ferrite surrounding austenite grains resulted from the temperature reversion process seriously deteriorated the ductility. In addition, after the temperature reversion in secondary cooling, the peak stress on the flow curve slightly declined and the peak of strain to peak stress occurred at higher temperature. With increasing temperature reversion rate, the strain to peak stress slightly increased, while the peak stress showed little variation. The evolution of plastic modulus and strain to peak stress of austenite with varying temperature was in line with the theoretical prediction on Fe.

  11. An experimental study on the mechanical properties of rat brain tissue using different stress-strain definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Alireza; Navidbakhsh, Mahdi

    2014-07-01

    There are different stress-strain definitions to measure the mechanical properties of the brain tissue. However, there is no agreement as to which stress-strain definition should be employed to measure the mechanical properties of the brain tissue at both the longitudinal and circumferential directions. It is worth knowing that an optimize stress-strain definition of the brain tissue at different loading directions may have implications for neuronavigation and surgery simulation through haptic devices. This study is aimed to conduct a comparative study on different results are given by the various definitions of stress-strain and to recommend a specific definition when testing brain tissues. Prepared cylindrical samples are excised from the parietal lobes of rats' brains and experimentally tested by applying load on both the longitudinal and circumferential directions. Three stress definitions (second Piola-Kichhoff stress, engineering stress, and true stress) and four strain definitions (Almansi-Hamel strain, Green-St. Venant strain, engineering strain, and true strain) are used to determine the elastic modulus, maximum stress and strain. The highest non-linear stress-strain relation is observed for the Almansi-Hamel strain definition and it may overestimate the elastic modulus at different stress definitions at both the longitudinal and circumferential directions. The Green-St. Venant strain definition fails to address the non-linear stress-strain relation using different definitions of stress and triggers an underestimation of the elastic modulus. The results suggest the application of the true stress-true strain definition for characterization of the brain tissues mechanics since it gives more accurate measurements of the tissue's response using the instantaneous values.

  12. A comparative study on the elastic modulus of polyvinyl alcohol sponge using different stress-strain definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Alireza; Navidbakhsh, Mahdi; Alizadeh, Mansour; Razaghi, Reza

    2014-10-01

    There have been different stress-strain definitions to measure the elastic modulus of spongy materials, especially polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) sponge. However, there is no agreement as to which stress-strain definition should be implemented. This study was aimed to show how different results are given by the various definitions of stress-strain used, and to recommend a specific definition when testing spongy materials. A fabricated PVA sponge was subjected to a series of tensile tests in order to measure its mechanical properties. Three stress definitions (second Piola-Kichhoff stress, engineering stress, and true stress) and four strain definitions (Almansi-Hamel strain, Green-St. Venant strain, engineering strain, and true strain) were used to determine the elastic modulus. The results revealed that the Almansi-Hamel strain definition exhibited the highest non-linear stress-strain relation and, as a result, may overestimate the elastic modulus at different stress definitions (second Piola-Kichhoff stress, engineering stress, and true stress). The Green-St. Venant strain definition failed to address the non-linear stress-strain relation using different definitions of stress and invoked an underestimation of the elastic modulus values. Engineering stress and strain definitions were only valid for small strains and displacements, which make them impractical when analyzing spongy materials. The results showed that the effect of varying the stress definition on the maximum stress measurements was significant but not when calculating the elastic modulus. It is important to consider which stress-strain definition is employed when characterizing the mechanical properties of spongy materials. Although the true stress-true strain definition exhibits a non-linear relation, we favor it in spongy materials mechanics as it gives more accurate measurements of the material's response using the instantaneous values.

  13. STRESS-STRAIN STATE IN EMBEDMENT OF REINFORCEMENT IN CASE OF REPEATED LOADINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirsayapov Ilshat Talgatovich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The author offer transforming the diagram of ideal elastic-plastic deformations for the description of the stress-strain state of embedment of reinforcement behind a critical inclined crack at repeatedly repeating loadings. The endurance limit of the adhesion between concrete and reinforcement and its corresponding displacements in case of repeated loadings are accepted as the main indicators. This adhesion law is the most appropriate for the description of physical and mechanical phenomena in the contact zone in case of cyclic loading, because it simply and reliably describes the adhesion mechanism and the nature of the deformation, and greatly simplifies the endurance calculations compared to the standard adhesion law. On the basis of this diagram the author obtained the equations for the description of the distribution of pressures and displacements after cyclic loading with account for the development of deformations of cyclic creep of the concrete under the studs of reinforcement.

  14. Elasto-plastic stress/strain at notches, comparison of test and approximative computations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beste, A.; Seeger, T.

    1979-01-01

    The lifetime of cyclically loaded components is decisively determined by the value of the local load in the notch root. The determination of the elasto-plastic notch-stress and-strain is therefore an important element of recent methods of lifetime determination. These local loads are normally calculated with the help of approximation formulas. Yet there are no details about their accuracy. The basic construction of the approximation formulas is presented, along with some particulars. The use of approximations within the fully plastic range and for material laws which show a non-linear stress-strain (sigma-epsilon-)-behaviour from the beginning is explained. The use of approximation for cyclic loads is particularly discussed. Finally, the approximations are evaluated in terms of their exactness. The test results are compared with the results of the approximation calculations. (orig.) 891 RW/orig. 892 RKD [de

  15. The effect of hydrogen on the multiaxial stress-strain behavior of titanium tubing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lentz, C.W.; Hecker, S.S.; Koss, D.A.; Stout, M.G.

    1983-01-01

    The influence of internal hydrogen on the multiaxial stress-strain behavior of commercially pure titanium has been studied. Thin-walled specimens containing either 20 or 1070 ppm hydrogen were tested at constant stress ratios in combined tension and internal pressure. Hydrogen lowers the yield strength but has no significant effect on strain hardening behavior at strains epsilon greater than or equal to 0.02. Thus, hydrogen embrittlement under plain strain or equibiaxial loading is not a consequence of changes of flow behavior. The yielding behavior is described well by Hill's quadratic yield criterion. As measured mechanically and pole figure analysis, the plastic anisotropy changes with deformation in a manner which depends on stress state. A strain dependent, texture-induced strengthening effect in equibiaxial tension an enhanced strain hardening rate

  16. Stress-strain state analysis and optimization of rod system under periodic pulse load

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grebenyuk Grigory

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the problem of analysis and optimization of rod systems subjected to combined static and periodic pulse load. As a result of the study the analysis method was developed based on traditional approach to solving homogeneous matrix equations of state and a special algorithm for developing a particular solution. The influence of pulse parameters variations on stress-strain state of a rod system was analyzed. Algorithms for rod systems optimization were developed basing on strength recalculation and statement and solution of optimization problem as a problem of nonlinear mathematical programming. Recommendations are developed for efficient organization of process for optimization of rod systems under static and periodic pulse load.

  17. Study of the stress-strain state of compressed concrete elements with composite reinforcement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bondarenko Yurii

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency analysis of the application of glass composite reinforcement in compressed concrete elements as a load-carrying component has been performed. The results of experimental studies of the deformation-strength characteristics of this reinforcement on compression and compressed concrete cylinders reinforced by this reinforcement are presented. The results of tests and mechanisms of sample destruction have been analyzed. The numerical analysis of the stress-strain state has been performed for axial compression of concrete elements with glasscomposite reinforcement. The influence of the reinforcement percentage on the stressed state of a concrete compressed element with the noted reinforcement is estimated. On the basis of the obtained results, it is established that the glass-composite reinforcement has positive effect on the strength of the compressed concrete elements. That is, when calculating the load-bearing capacity of such structures, the function of composite reinforcement on compression should not be neglected.

  18. Evaluation of stress-strain for characterization of the rheological behavior of alginate and carrageenan gels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.J. Mammarella

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available The stress-strain of samples deformed until failure and the relaxation response after 50% deformation of the initial height under constant stress were obtained. Uniaxial compression and stress-relaxation tests enabled satisfactory differentiation of the mechanical resistance of gels with different alginate and carrageenan concentrations. Higher values for initial force at the beginning of the relaxation test were associated with higher calcium uptake by the gels. An increment of failure stress during the uniaxial compression tests for higher concentration of calcium in the gel structure was also observed. The maximum amount of cation uptake was higher than the theoretical value for saturation of all the carboxylic groups available in alginate molecules due to structural rearrangements. Stress-relaxation tests indicated that the residual stress of the gel increased with kappa-carrageenan concentration.

  19. Experimental determination of the stress/strain situation in a sheared tunnel model with canister

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pusch, R.

    1978-03-01

    A previous report concerned a technical matter which could be of great importance as regards the mechanical strength of canisters embedded in a bentonite/quartz buffer mass, i.e. the effect of a differential movement triggered by a critical deviatoric stress condition. Even if this is extremely unlikeley to occur it was considered to be of importance to verify the theoretical expressions for the maximum bending moment and maximum shear force. A special reason was to test the hypothesis that the contact pressure would soon reach a high value and then stay fairly constant when the displacement increased. The theoretical approach requires that the stress/strain properties of the fill are thoroghly investigated and described in therms of a mathematical model. Experience shows that this may be a tedions and difficult task. (L.E.)

  20. Evaluation of fracture toughness of vessel materials using small-size specimens and full stress-strain curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebedev, A A; Chausov, N G [Akademyiya Nauk Ukrayini, Kiev (Ukraine)

    1994-12-31

    Physically substantiated dependences between crack resistance characteristics determined by the parameters of descending sections of full stress-strain curves and stressed state rigidity at crack initiation moment, have been experimentally obtained. The possibility of crack resistance reliable estimation based on full stress-strain obtained using small-size specimens with different concentrators, has thus been experimentally substantiated. Results obtained by the method and actual temperature dependence of irradiated steel 15X2NMFA crack resistance characteristics, agreed well. 2 refs., 7 figs.

  1. Influence of the representation models of the stress-strain law on the LMFBR structures in an HCDA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daneri, A.; Toselli, G.; Trombetti, T.; Blanchet, Y.; Louvet, J.; Obry, P.

    1981-08-01

    Most of analysis involved in mechanical calculations related to explosive accidents in fast breeder reactors are now aware of the inadequacy of certain rough stress-strain laws to representing the correct behaviour of vessel materials. Indeed stress waves along the vessel walls deform the material at a high strain rate with multiaxial loading or reverse loading. Recently different questions have been under investigation in France in this direction and the present study, performed in the frame of the agreement CNEN-CEA, is an example of the way how two very important factors (strain rate and strain hardening) may be taken into account in the constitutive equations of materials subject to dynamic deformations. Several parametric calculations have been carried out with the hydrodynamic structural codes ASTARTE-3/4 and SIRIUS, which are the Lagrangian validated code now available at the CNEN and CEA-Cadarache computing centres. Analysis was performed by comparing two reference calculations relating to the MARA 01 and COVA IT7 explosive tests with experimental data and with other calculations in which different values of the initial hardening and of the strain rates of the tank shell material were introduced. In general both codes give similar results; improvements of predicted axial and hoop strains and of impulses in water have been reached in certain cases but it is difficult to find a general trend and there is no ideal constitutive model: indeed the strain rate is not constant in time, in place and in direction and some parts of the vessels are uniaxially loaded while others are multiaxially loaded

  2. Influence of the representation models of the stress-strain law on the LMFBR structures in an HCDA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daneri, A.; Toselli, G.; Trombetti, T.; Blanche, Y.; Louvet, J.; Obry, P.

    1982-01-01

    Most of analysis involved in mechanical calculations related to explosive accidents in fast breeder reactor are now aware of the inadequacy of certain roug stress-strain laws to representing the correct behaviour of vessel materials. Indeed stress waves along the vessel walls deform the material at high strain rate with multiaxial loading or reverse loading. Recently different questions have been under investigation in France in this direction and the present study, performed in the frame of the agreement CNEN-CEA, is an example of the way how two very important factors (strain rate and strain hardening) may be taken into account in the consecutive equations of materials subject to dynamic deformations. Several parametric calculations have been carried out with the hydrodynamic structural codes ASTARTE 3/4 and SIRIUS, which are the Lagrangian validated codes now available at the CNEN and CEA Cadarache Computing Centres.Analysis was performed by comparing two reference calculations relating to the MARA 01 and COVA IT7 explosive tests with experimental data and with other calculations in which different values of the initial hardening and of the strain rates of the tank shell material were introduced. In general both codes give similar results; improvements of predicted axial and hoop strain and of impulses in water have been reached in certain cases but it is difficult to find a general trend and there is no ideal constitutive model: indeed the strain rate is not constant in time, in place and in direction and some parts of the vessels are uniaxially loaded while others are multiaxially loaded

  3. Snow multivariable data assimilation for hydrological predictions in mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazzi, Gaia; Campo, Lorenzo; Gabellani, Simone; Rudari, Roberto; Castelli, Fabio; Cremonese, Edoardo; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Stevenin, Hervé; Ratto, Sara Maria

    2016-04-01

    -based and remotely sensed data of different snow-related variables (snow albedo and surface temperature, Snow Water Equivalent from passive microwave sensors and Snow Cover Area). SMASH performance was evaluated in the period June 2012 - December 2013 at the meteorological station of Torgnon (Tellinod, 2 160 msl), located in Aosta Valley, a mountain region in northwestern Italy. The EnKF algorithm was firstly tested by assimilating several ground-based measurements: snow depth, land surface temperature, snow density and albedo. The assimilation of snow observed data revealed an overall considerable enhancement of model predictions with respect to the open loop experiments. A first attempt to integrate also remote sensed information was performed by assimilating the Land Surface Temperature (LST) from METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG), leading to good results. The analysis allowed identifying the snow depth and the snowpack surface temperature as the most impacting variables in the assimilation process. In order to pinpoint an optimal number of ensemble instances, SMASH performances were also quantitatively evaluated by varying the instances amount. Furthermore, the impact of the data assimilation frequency was analyzed by varying the assimilation time step (3h, 6h, 12h, 24h).

  4. Mathematical modeling of stress-strain state of the system HPP building - soil base with account for the phased construction of the building

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

    Full Text Available The interaction process of a power plant building with the soil base is studied basing on mathematical modeling of the construction process of Kambarata-2 HPP, taking into account the excavation of foundation pit, the concreting schedule of the building construction, the HPP units putting into operation and territory planning. Mathematical modeling of stress-strain state of the system “power plant - soil base” in the process of construction was performed by using the computer program “Zemlya” (the Earth, which implements the method of finite elements. Such a behavior of soil was described using elastoplastic soil model, the parameters of which were determined from the results of the triaxial tests. As shown by the results of the research, the continuous change of settlement, slope, deflection and torsion of the bottom plate and accordingly change of stressed-strained state of power plant are noted during the construction process. The installed HPP construction schedule, starting from the construction of the first block and the adjacent mounting platform, is leading to the formation of initial roll of bottom plate to the path of the mounting pad. In the process of further construction of powerhouse, up to the 29th phase of construction (out of 40, a steady increase in its subsidence (maximum values of about 4.5 cm is noted. Filling of foundation pit hollows and territorial planning of the construction area lead to drastic situation. In this case, as a territory planning points exceeded the relief, the plastic deformation in the soil evolves, resulting in significant subsidence of the bottom plate under the first block (up to 7.4 cm. As a result, the additional subsidence of the soil of bottom plate edges lead to the large vertical movement in relation to its central part and it is bent around the X axis, resulting in a large horizontal tensile stress values of Sz (up to 2.17 MPa in the constructive elements of the upper part of the

  5. Flow stress asymmetry and cyclic stress--strain response in a BCC Ti--V alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koss, D.A.; Wojcik, C.C.

    1976-01-01

    The cyclic stress-strain response of relatively stable bcc β-phase Ti--40 percent V alloy single crystals was studied. Flow stress asymmetry found in the alloy is attributed to the fact that screw dislocations, when gliding on a (211) plane, are more mobile in the twinning direction than in the antitwinning direction. Thus the flow stress of the crystal is greater when it is sheared in the antitwinning direction than in the twinning direction (the latter case results when crystals of the 100 orientation are stressed in tension and those of the 110 orientation are stressed in compression). Such behavior can be a result of the core of a screw dislocation being asymmetric under stress which causes the flow stress asymmetry observed. It should be noted that screw dislocations dominate the low temperature deformation structure of Ti-40V, which strongly suggests deformation is controlled by screw dislocation motion. The observation in Mo that the microyield stress is independent of crystal orientation could be a result of edge dislocation motion controlling microyield in that instance and this observation would not be inconsistent with screw dislocation motion controlling the macroscopic (epsilon/sub p/ greater than 0.05 percent) deformation measured here

  6. Stress-Strain Relation of Tire Rubber Consist of Entangled Polymers, Fillers and Crosslink

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagita, Katsumi; Bito, Y.; Minagawa, Y.; Omiya, M.; Morita, H.; Doi, M.; Takano, H.

    2009-03-01

    We presented a preliminary result of large scale coarse-grained Molecular Dynamics simulation of filled polymer melts with Sulfur-crosslink under an uni-axial deformation by using the Kremer-Grest Model. The size of simulation box under periodic boundary conditions (PBC) is set to about 66nm to consider length of entangled polymer chains, size and structure of fillers, and non-uniform distribution of crosslink. We put 640 polymer chains of 1024 particles and 32 fillers into the PBC box. Each filler consists of 1280 particles of the C1280 fullerene structure. A repulsive force from the center of the filler is applied to the particles. Here, the particles of the fillers are chosen to be the same as the particles of the polymers and the diameter of the filler is about 15nm. The distribution of the fillers used in this simulation is provided by the result of 2d pattern RMC analysis for 2D-USAXS experiments at SPring-8. Sulfur crosslink are randomly distributed in the system. It is found that stress-strain curves estimated by applying a certain uni-axial deformation to the system in simulations are in good agreement with those in experiments. It is successful to show difference on the S-S curve between existence / absence of fillers and qualitative dependence of attractive force between polymer and filler.

  7. Design of Stress-Strain Measuring System for Bulldozing Plate Based on Virtual Instrument Technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S C; Li, J Q; Zhang, R

    2006-01-01

    Soil is a kind of discrete, multiphase compound that is composed of soil particles, liquid and air. When soil is disturbed by bulldozing plate, the mechanical behavior of the soil will become very complex. Based on the law of action and reaction, the dynamic mechanical behavior of disturbed soil was indirectly analyzed by measuring and studying the forces on the bulldozing plate by soil currently, so a stress-strain virtual measuring system for bulldozing plate, which was designed by the graphical programming language DASYLab, was used to measure the horizontal force Fz acting on the bulldozing plate. In addition, during the course of design, the experimental complexities and the interferential factors influencing on signal logging were analyzed when bulldozing plate worked, so the anti-jamming methods of hardware and software technology were adopted correlatively. In the end, the horizontal force Fz was analyzed with Error Theory, the result shown that the quantificational analysis of Fz were identical to the qualitative results of soil well, and the error of the whole test system is under 5 percent, so the tress-strain virtual measuring system was stable and credible

  8. Developing the multiple stress-strain creep recovery (MS-SCR) test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elnasri, Mahmoud; Airey, Gordon; Thom, Nick

    2018-04-01

    While most published work from Europe has been concerned with evaluating binders' resistance to rutting based on their stiffness (deformation resistance), work originating in the US has mainly been concerned with ranking binders based on their recoverability in a multiple stress form. This paper details the design of a new modified multiple stress-strain creep recovery (MS-SCR) test. The test is designed to evaluate binders' rutting resistance based on two rutting resistance mechanisms: stiffness and recoverability. A preliminary investigation is presented in this paper followed by details of the design of the new modified test. A 40/60 penetration grade bitumen and bitumen-filler mastics prepared with three filler concentrations (35%, 50%, and 65% filler content by mass of mastic) were tested. In addition, two polymer modified bitumens (PMBs) using the same base bitumen type were examined for validation. Two parameters are introduced to characterise the short and long recovery in the new test. In terms of stiffness, the test allows the behaviour of binders at different stress levels and loading cycles to be studied and produces a new parameter that can quantify the degree of modification. Finally, a relationship between nonlinearity and normal force in the test was investigated.

  9. On stress/strain shielding and the material stiffness paradigm for dental implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korabi, Raoof; Shemtov-Yona, Keren; Rittel, Daniel

    2017-10-01

    Stress shielding considerations suggest that the dental implant material's compliance should be matched to that of the host bone. However, this belief has not been confirmed from a general perspective, either clinically or numerically. To characterize the influence of the implant stiffness on its functionality using the failure envelope concept that examines all possible combinations of mechanical load and application angle for selected stress, strain and displacement-based bone failure criteria. Those criteria represent bone yielding, remodeling, and implant primary stability, respectively MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed numerical simulations to generate failure envelopes for all possible loading configurations of dental implants, with stiffness ranging from very low (polymer) to extremely high, through that of bone, titanium, and ceramics. Irrespective of the failure criterion, stiffer implants allow for improved implant functionality. The latter reduces with increasing compliance, while the trabecular bone experiences higher strains, albeit of an overall small level. Micromotions remain quite small irrespective of the implant's stiffness. The current paradigm favoring reduced implant material's stiffness out of concern for stress or strain shielding, or even excessive micromotions, is not supported by the present calculations, that point exactly to the opposite. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Anisotropy effect of the clay soil masses on the stress-strain state of transport tunnels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yushkov Boris Semenovich

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the kinds of clay soil mass anisotropy in the form of the spatial heterogeneity of properties of thawed and frozen soils, ambiguity of the frost heaving values and shrinkage in different directions. The questions of anisotropy of the clay soil properties at the positive temperatures are reported. The dependence of the heterogeneity of the physical and mechanical properties of frozen soils from the cryogenic texture, natural arrangement, different types of stratification and interbedding is considered. Indexes of the strength and strain anisotropy are noted. The accounting possibilities of the basic numerical indexes of heaving phenomena from the standpoint of anisotropy of the properties and processes inherent in the freezing through soil are analyzed by substitution in the heaving strain formula. The unevenness of thawed soil shrinkage in vertical and horizontal directions is noted during the freezing of the top layer. The unevenness of shrinkage in different directions is connected with kind of stress and cryogenic texture. Anisotropy of the frost heaving process is considered in the context of one-dimensional and non-one-dimensional problem depending on the amount of the freezing fronts and their direction. There is summarized the effect of anisotropy appearances on the stress-strain state of the transport tunnel. One can conclude that the resulting non-uniformity of heaving and shrinkage in conjunction with anisotropic properties of frozen soils, is a significant component in the complex of power factors determining the optimal design solution of a transport tunnel.

  11. Large-area dry bean yield prediction modeling in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Given the importance of dry bean in Mexico, crop yield predictions before harvest are valuable for authorities of the agricultural sector, in order to define support for producers. The aim of this study was to develop an empirical model to estimate the yield of dry bean at the regional level prior t...

  12. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Retroactive forecasts are produced for lead times of up to 5 months and probabilistic forecast performances evaluated for extreme rainfall thresholds of the 25th and 75th percentile values of the climatological record. The verification of the retroactive forecasts shows that rainfall over the catchment is predictable at extended ...

  13. Determination of parameters for a stress-strain constitutive equation considering time-dependent behavior of Toki granite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirano, Toru; Seno, Yasuhiro; Nakama, Shigeo; Okubo, Seisuke

    2008-01-01

    Toki granite was tested to obtain parameters for the constitutive equation. The testing method was uniaxial compressive loading at the moderate a constant strain rate that is decreased after yielding to obtain the complete stress-strain curve. In addition, two kinds of the strain rate were alternately switched to obtain the parameter n from one specimen. The n represents the strength time-dependence in the constitutive equation. The second parameter m can be obtained by fitting the experimental stress-strain curve to the calculated curve. The m accounts for the behavior after yielding. According to the results, Toki granite has n=52 and m=60, showing relatively weak time-dependence of creep failure. (author)

  14. The Stress-Strain State of Recent Structures in the Northeastern Sector of the Russian Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imaeva, L. P.; Imaev, V. S.; Mel'nikova, V. I.

    2018-03-01

    Complex research to determine the stress-strain state of the Earth's crust and the types of seismotectonic destruction for the northeastern sector of the Russian Arctic was conducted. The principles of regional ranking of neotectonic structures were developed according to the activity of geodynamic processes, and argumentation for their class differentiation is presented. The structural-tectonic position, the parameters of the deep structure, the system of active faults, and the tectonic stress fields, calculated on the basis of both tectonophysical analysis of discontinuous and folded late Cenozoic deformations and seismological data, were analyzed. This complex of investigations made it possible to determine the directions of the main axes of deformations of the stress-strain state of the Earth's crust and to reveal the regularity in the change of tectonic regimes.

  15. Experimental determination of the micro-scale strength and stress-strain relation of an epoxy resin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zike, Sanita; Sørensen, Bent F.; Mikkelsen, Lars Pilgaard

    2016-01-01

    An approach is developed for determining the stress-strain law and a failure stress appropriate for micro-mechanical models of polymer materials. Double cantilever beam test specimens, made of an epoxy polymer with notches having finite root radius, were subjected to pure bending moments in an en......An approach is developed for determining the stress-strain law and a failure stress appropriate for micro-mechanical models of polymer materials. Double cantilever beam test specimens, made of an epoxy polymer with notches having finite root radius, were subjected to pure bending moments......-scale (5–6%). The hardening exponent of a power law hardening material was obtained by the use of the J-integral, estimating the strain energy density around the notch. The hardening exponent was found to be within the range of 5–6 and the corresponding micro-scale failure stress was in the range of 220...

  16. Stress-strain effects on powder-in-tube MgB2 tapes and wires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katagiri, Kazumune; Takaya, Ryuya; Kasaba, Koichi; Tachikawa, Kyoji; Yamada, Yutaka; Shimura, Satoshi; Koshizuka, Naoki; Watanabe, Kazuo

    2005-01-01

    The effects of stress-strain on the critical current, I c , of ex situ powder-in-tube (PIT)-processed Ni-sheathed MgB 2 tapes and round wires as well as in situ PIT-processed Cu-sheathed wires at 4.2 K in a magnetic field up to 5 T have been studied. The effect of In powder addition on the Ni-sheathed MgB 2 wire was not so clear compared with that in the tape, in which the irreversible strain, ε irr , for the I c degradation onset increases significantly by the addition. This is attributed to the difference in the microstructure of the core associated with cold workings. A peak and gradual degradation behaviour of I c with strain beyond ε irr was found in the wire, whereas no evident peak and a steep degradation behaviour was found in the tape. As a possible reason, the difference in the triaxial residual stress state at 4.2 K due to the difference in geometry of the cross-section is suspected. The transverse compression tests revealed that I c of the wire did not degrade up to 270 MPa. Again, the effect of In addition was minimal. The Young's modulus of MgB 2 , 31-41 GPa, at room temperature was estimated by a tensile test of Cu sheath wire using a high-accuracy extensometer and the law of mixtures. The tensile strain dependence of I c in the Cu sheath wire was similar to that in the Ni-sheathed wire, ε irr being 0.4%. However, the stress corresponding to ε irr , 50 MPa, was about 1/10 of that for the Ni-sheath wire and the irreversible transverse compressive stress, 150 MPa, was also lower. The effect of bending strain on the I c in Cu-sheathed wire was compared with that of the tensile strain

  17. Comparison between the Norton - and Mukherjee constitutive equations in the determination of stress - strain analysis of a material under creep

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bevilacqua, L.; Feijoo, R.A.; Freire, J.L.; Miranda, P.E.V. de; Monteiro, E.; Silveira, T.L. da; Taroco, E.

    1981-06-01

    The Norton and Mukherjee constitutive equations are used to approximate the experimental results of creep in AISI 304 steel. Both equations are applied to the stress-strain analysis of a rotating disk with a concentric circular hole. From the design point of view it is shown that the stresses obtained with both equations are equivalents, which is not true for the velocities. (Author) [pt

  18. Stress overshoot in stress-strain curves of Zr65Al10Ni10Cu15 metallic glass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawamura, Y.; Shibata, T.; Inoue, A.; Masumoto, T.

    1997-01-01

    The essential features of the stress overshoot in the stress-strain curves of Zr 65 Al 10 Ni 10 Cu 15 (at.%) metallic glass that has a wide supercooled liquid region were revealed. The stress overshoot was dependent on temperature, strain rate, and stress relaxation. During the stretch, a change in strain rate gave rise to stress overshoot or undershoot which was sensitive to the variable quantities in the strain rate. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  19. Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Lake Kariba catchment area

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Lake Kariba catchment area in southern Africa has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin, with an extreme range of conditions across the catchment and through time. Marked seasonal and interannual fluctuations in rainfall...

  20. Mathematical Modeling in Systems for Operational Evaluation of the Stress-Strain State of the Arch-Gravity Dam at the Sayano-Shushenskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bellendir, E. N.; Gordon, L. A., E-mail: lev-gordon@mail.ru; Khrapkov, A. A.; Skvortsova, A. E., E-mail: SkvortsovaAE@vniig.ru [B. E. Vedeneev All-Russia Research Institute of Hydraulic Engineering (VNIIG) (Russian Federation)

    2017-01-15

    Current studies of the stress-strain state of the dam at the Sayano-Shushenskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant at VNIIG based on mathematical modeling including full scale and experimental data are described. Applications and programs intended for automatic operational evaluation of the stress-strain state of the dam for optimizing control of the upper race level in the course of the annual filling-drawdown cycle and during seismic events are examined. Improvements in systems for monitoring the stress-strain state of concrete dams are proposed.

  1. Simple, spatial and predictive approach for cereal yield prediction in the semi-arid areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toumi, Jihad; Khabba, Said; Er-Raki, Salah; Le page, Michel; Chahbi Bellakanji, Aicha; Lili Chabaane, Zohra; Ezzahar, Jamal; Zribi, Mehrez; Jarlan, Lionel

    2016-04-01

    The objective is to develop a simple, spatial and predictive approach of dry matter (DM) and grain yield (GY) of cereal in the semi-arid areas. The proposed method is based on the three efficiencies model of Monteith (1972). This approach summarizes the transformation of solar radiation to the dry matter (DM) by the climate (ɛc), interception (ɛi) and conversion (ɛconv) efficiencies. The method combines the maximum of ɛi and ɛconv (noted ɛimax and ɛconvmax) into a single parameter denoted ɛmax, calculating as a function of cumulating growing degree day (CGDD). Also, the stress coefficient ks, which affects the conversion of solar radiation to the biomass was calculated by the surface temperature or the water balance at the root zone. In addition, the expression of ks has been improved by the consideration of the results achieved by deficit irrigation (AquaCrop and STICS models) which showed that the value of ks from 0.7 to 1 didn't affect significantly the cereal production. For the partitioning of the dry matter developed, between straw and grain, the method proposed calculates a variable Harvest Index coefficient (HI). HI is deducted from CGDD and HI0max (maximal final harvest Index in the region of study). Finally, the approach calculates DM depending Satellite Information (NDVI and surface temperature Ts) and climatic data (solar radiation and air temperature). In the case of no availability of Ts, the amount of irrigation is required to calculate ks. Until now, the developed model has been calibrated and validated on the irrigated area R3, located 40 Km east of Marrakech. The evolutions of DM and GY were reproduced satisfactorily. R2 and RMSE are respectively 0.98 and 0.35 t/ha and 0.98 and 0.19 t/ha, respectively. Currently, additional tests are in progress on data relating to the Kairouan plain of Tunisia.

  2. Body surface area prediction in normal, hypermuscular, and obese mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Michael C; Spalding, Paul B; Gutierrez, Juan C; Balkan, Wayne; Namias, Nicholas; Koniaris, Leonidas G; Zimmers, Teresa A

    2009-05-15

    Accurate determination of body surface area (BSA) in experimental animals is essential for modeling effects of burn injury or drug metabolism. Two-dimensional surface area is related to three-dimensional body volume, which in turn can be estimated from body mass. The Meeh equation relates body surface area to the two-thirds power of body mass, through a constant, k, which must be determined empirically by species and size. We found older values of k overestimated BSA in certain mice; thus we determined empirically k for various strains of normal, obese, and hypermuscular mice. BSA was computed from digitally scanned pelts and nonlinear regression analysis was used to determine the best-fit k. The empirically determined k for C57BL/6J mice of 9.82 was not significantly different from other inbred and outbred mouse strains of normal body composition. However, mean k of the nearly spheroid, obese lepr(db/db) mice (k = 8.29) was significantly lower than for normals, as were values for dumbbell-shaped, hypermuscular mice with either targeted deletion of the myostatin gene (Mstn) (k = 8.48) or with skeletal muscle specific expression of a dominant negative myostatin receptor (Acvr2b) (k = 8.80). Hypermuscular and obese mice differ substantially from normals in shape and density, resulting in considerably altered k values. This suggests Meeh constants should be determined empirically for animals of altered body composition. Use of these new, improved Meeh constants will allow greater accuracy in experimental models of burn injury and pharmacokinetics.

  3. Effects of uncertainty in model predictions of individual tree volume on large area volume estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; James A. Westfall

    2014-01-01

    Forest inventory estimates of tree volume for large areas are typically calculated by adding model predictions of volumes for individual trees. However, the uncertainty in the model predictions is generally ignored with the result that the precision of the large area volume estimates is overestimated. The primary study objective was to estimate the effects of model...

  4. Effect on stress-strain relations brought by surface carburization of 316 stainless steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsumoto, K [Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries, Tokyo (Japan)

    1977-07-01

    The effect of sodium. environment on austenitic stainless steels used as structural materials in Liquid Metal Cooled Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBRs) has long been the subject of extensive studies in many countries. Recent developments tending toward stricter control of the oxygen content permitted to be present in the circulating sodium have come to allay the apprehensions formerly held on the possibility of general corrosion affecting the mechanical properties of structural materials expected to be used In LMFBR plants. Grain boundary corrosion and depletion of elements from the structure surface also have come to be considered to provide little cause of fear in this regard, though some uncertainty is still left concerning the influence that these phenomena might exert toward the end of plant life. What still remains essentially to be clarified relates to carbon mass transfer. Decarburization and/or carburization are phenomena that cannot be disregarded even in the primary heat transfer system of LMFBRs, on account of the temperature dependence of carbon activity in steels, which could cause the carbon to leak out from structural material into the circulating sodium in the higher temperature zones of a circuit, to deposit itself on the channel walls in the lower temperature parts. Recent reports on loop experiments point toward the possibility of carboneous matter leaching into flowing sodium and into the cover gas to produce significant carburization phenomena. Carburization, in particular, can bring about loss of ductility and deterioration of fatigue properties, and hence serious consideration of this aspect is called for in the design of components incorporating thin stainless steel plates. To represent the stress-strain behavior at 550 deg. C of 316 stainless steel affected by surface carburization, an empirical formula was adopted. It was proposed by Voce for relating true stress to true plastic strain: {sigma} = Aexp(C {epsilon}{sub p} ) + B, where {sigma

  5. Effect on stress-strain relations brought by surface carburization of 316 stainless steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsumoto, K.

    1977-01-01

    The effect of sodium. environment on austenitic stainless steels used as structural materials in Liquid Metal Cooled Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBRs) has long been the subject of extensive studies in many countries. Recent developments tending toward stricter control of the oxygen content permitted to be present in the circulating sodium have come to allay the apprehensions formerly held on the possibility of general corrosion affecting the mechanical properties of structural materials expected to be used In LMFBR plants. Grain boundary corrosion and depletion of elements from the structure surface also have come to be considered to provide little cause of fear in this regard, though some uncertainty is still left concerning the influence that these phenomena might exert toward the end of plant life. What still remains essentially to be clarified relates to carbon mass transfer. Decarburization and/or carburization are phenomena that cannot be disregarded even in the primary heat transfer system of LMFBRs, on account of the temperature dependence of carbon activity in steels, which could cause the carbon to leak out from structural material into the circulating sodium in the higher temperature zones of a circuit, to deposit itself on the channel walls in the lower temperature parts. Recent reports on loop experiments point toward the possibility of carboneous matter leaching into flowing sodium and into the cover gas to produce significant carburization phenomena. Carburization, in particular, can bring about loss of ductility and deterioration of fatigue properties, and hence serious consideration of this aspect is called for in the design of components incorporating thin stainless steel plates. To represent the stress-strain behavior at 550 deg. C of 316 stainless steel affected by surface carburization, an empirical formula was adopted. It was proposed by Voce for relating true stress to true plastic strain: σ = Aexp(C ε p ) + B, where σ is the true stress, and

  6. Conductive sapwood area prediction from stem and canopy areas - allometric equations of Kalahari trees, Botswana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lubczynski, M.W.; Chavarro-Rincon, D.C.; Rossiter, David

    2017-01-01

    Conductive sapwood (xylem) area (Ax) of all trees in a given forested area is the main factor contributing to spatial tree transpiration. One hundred ninety-five trees of 9 species in the Kalahari region of Botswana were felled, stained, cut into discs, and measured to develop allometric equations

  7. NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF THE STRESS-STRAIN STATE OF A ROPE STRAND WITH LINEAR CONTACT UNDER TENSION AND TORSION LOADING CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenij Kalentev

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of a numerical analysis of the stress-strain state of a rope strand with linear contact under tension and torsion loading conditions. Calculations are done using the ANSYS software package. Different approaches to calculation of the stress-strain state of ropes are reviewed, and their advantages and deficiencies are considered. The analysis of the obtained results leads us to the conclusion that the proposed method can be used in engineering calculations.

  8. Random cyclic stress-strain responses of a stainless steel pipe-weld metal. II. A modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Y.X.; Wang, J.N.

    2000-01-01

    For pt.I see ibid., vol.199, p.303-14, 2000. This paper pays special attention to an issue that there is a significant scatter of the stress-strain responses of a nuclear engineering material, 1Cr18Ni9Ti stainless steel pipe-weld metal. Efforts are made to reveal the random fatigue damage character by fracture surface observations and to model the random responses by introducing probability-based stress-strain curves of Ramberg-Osgood relation and its modified form. Results reveal that the fatigue damage is subjected to, 3-D interacting and involved microcracks. The three stages, namely microstructural short cracks (MSC), physical short cracks (PSC) and long cracks (LC) subdivided by Miller and de los Rios, can give a good characterization of the damage process. Both micro- and macro-behaviour of the material have the character of three stages. The 3-D effects are strong in the MSC stage, tend to a gradual decrease in the PSC stage, and then show saturation after going to the LC stage. Intrinsic causes of the random behaviour are the difference and evolution of the microstructural conditions ahead of the dominant crack tips. The 'effectively short fatigue crack criterion' introduced by Zhao et al. in observing the material surface short crack behaviour could facilitate an understanding of the mechanism of interaction and evolution. Based on the previous obtained appropriate assumed distribution, normal model, for the cyclic stress amplitude, the probability-based curves are approximated by the mean value and standard deviation cyclic stress-strain curves. Then, fatigue analysis at arbitrarily given reliability can be conveniently made according to the normal distribution function. To estimate these curves, a maximum likelihood method is developed. The analysis reveals that the curves could give a good modeling of the random responses of material. (orig.)

  9. Assessment of stress-strain data suitable for finite-element elastic--plastic analysis of shipping containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rack, H.J.; Knorovsky, G.A.

    1978-09-01

    Stress-strain data which describes the influence of strain rate and temperature on the mechanical response of materials presently being used for light water reactor fuel shipping containers have been assembled. Selection of data has been limited to that which is suitable for use in finite-element elastic--plastic analysis of shipping containers (e.g., they must include complete material history profiles). Based on this information, recommendations have been made for further work which is required to complete the necessary data base

  10. Stress-Strain state of structural elements of LWR fuel rods modeling in the MSC.MARC and ANSYS software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuznetsov, A.; Kuznetsov, V.; Krupkin, A.; Kashirin, B.; Medvedev, A.; Novikov, V.

    2009-01-01

    The results of stress-strain state in the fuel rod spring fixing lock coils modeling are presented in this paper. The solution of this problem was realized in finite-element software MSC.MARC and ANSIS. The solution was obtained in the three-dimensional setting, taking into account multicontact interaction and all physical and geometric nonlinearities. The finite-element models were verified on analytical parities and experimental data. Results of verification have proved a correctness of the accepted finite-element models

  11. NOAA ESRI Grid - sediment size predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  12. NOAA ESRI Grid - depth predictions bathymetry model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  13. NOAA ESRI Shapefile - sediment composition class predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment composition class predictions from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The...

  14. First-principles studies on the pressure dependences of the stress-strain relationship and elastic stability of semiconductors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, S Q; Ye, H Q; Yip, S

    2006-01-01

    We investigate the stress-strain relationship and elastic stability of zinc-blende GaP, GaN, InP and BN lattices under hydrostatic pressure by first-principles calculation. A simple and direct ab initio implementation for studying the mechanical properties of cubic crystals is developed. The four phases' full-set stress-strain coefficients in wide pressure ranges are theoretically calculated. The fundamental mechanism of elastic stability and the origin of phase transformation under hydrostatic pressure are explored. We found that the abilities for most of these lattices are enhanced to sustain axial strain but weaken to shear strain under higher pressure. The conditions of lattice stability are analysed using both the thermodynamic work-energy criterion and the elastic-stiffness criteria. We show that the lattice collapse of the perfect crystals is caused by the disappearance of their bulk moduli under volume dilation. Lattice defects are considered to be the main reason causing phase transformation under pressure. The correlation between the phonon softening and the variation of elastic coefficients is studied. The pressure dependence of the Kleinman internal strain parameter and its relationship to elastic stability is also explored

  15. Experimental Study of Stress-Strain Behaviour of Open-Cell Aluminium Foam Sandwich Panel for Automotive Structural Part

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nur Asmawiyah Ibrahim

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Because of high stiffness and strength to weight ratio, aluminium foam sandwich (AFS has huge advantage in automotive industries in order to reduce the vehicle’s weight which consequently will reduce the fuel consumption. While reducing the weight, AFS must also maintain high strength and durability compared to other competitive materials used which perform same functionalities. AFS had been proved its suitability for industrial application by previous researchers such as in aerospace, automotive and architecture. However, there is still a gap need to be filled in order to expand the use of the AFS in another application. In this paper, the tensile strength of AFS panel made of from aluminium skin sheets and open-cell aluminium foam core with various thickness is investigated. Design of experiment was developed according to JUMP (JMP statistical software and experimental work was done using universal testing machine. The stress-strain behavior was analysed. The result shows that the effect of skin to core ratio is significant on the stress-strain behavior.

  16. Simulation of tensile stress-strain properties of irradiated type 316 SS by heavily cold-worked material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muto, Yasushi; Jitsukawa, Shiro; Hishinuma, Akimichi

    1995-07-01

    Type 316 stainless steel is one of the most promising candidate materials to be used for the structural parts of plasma facing components in the nuclear fusion reactor. The neutron irradiation make the material brittle and reduces its uniform elongation to almost zero at heavy doses. In order to apply such a material of reduced ductility to structural components, the structural integrity should be examined and assured by the fracture mechanics. The procedure requires a formulated stress-strain relationship. However, the available irradiated tensile test data are very limited at present, so that the cold-worked material was used as a simulated material in this study. Property changes of 316 SS, that is, a reduction of uniform elongation and an enhancement of yield stress are seemingly very similar for both the irradiated 316 SS and the cold-worked one. The specimens made of annealed 316 SS, 20% (or 15%) cold worked one and 40% cold worked one were prepared. After the formulation of stress strain behavior, the equation for the cold-worked 316 SS was fitted to the data on irradiated material under the assumption that the yield stress is the same for both materials. In addition, the upper limit for the plastic strain was introduced using the data on the irradiated material. (author)

  17. Tensile Stress-Strain Results for 304L and 316L Stainless-Steel Plate at Temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    R. K. Blandford; D. K. Morton; S. D. Snow; T. E. Rahl

    2007-01-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is conducting moderate strain rate (10 to 200 per second) research on stainless steel materials in support of the Department of Energy's (DOE) National Spent Nuclear Fuel Program (NSNFP). For this research, strain rate effects are characterized by comparison to quasi-static tensile test results. Considerable tensile testing has been conducted resulting in the generation of a large amount of basic material data expressed as engineering and true stress-strain curves. The purpose of this paper is to present the results of quasi-static tensile testing of 304/304L and 316/316L stainless steels in order to add to the existing data pool for these materials and make the data more readily available to other researchers, engineers, and interested parties. Standard tensile testing of round specimens in accordance with ASTM procedure A 370-03a were conducted on 304L and 316L stainless-steel plate materials at temperatures ranging from -20 F to 600 F. Two plate thicknesses, eight material heats, and both base and weld metal were tested. Material yield strength, Young's modulus, ultimate strength, ultimate strain, failure strength and failure strain were determined, engineering and true stress-strain curves to failure were developed, and comparisons to ASME Code minimums were made. The procedures used during testing and the typical results obtained are described in this paper

  18. Using Tree Detection Algorithms to Predict Stand Sapwood Area, Basal Area and Stocking Density in Eucalyptus regnans Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Jaskierniak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Managers of forested water supply catchments require efficient and accurate methods to quantify changes in forest water use due to changes in forest structure and density after disturbance. Using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR data with as few as 0.9 pulses m−2, we applied a local maximum filtering (LMF method and normalised cut (NCut algorithm to predict stocking density (SDen of a 69-year-old Eucalyptus regnans forest comprising 251 plots with resolution of the order of 0.04 ha. Using the NCut method we predicted basal area (BAHa per hectare and sapwood area (SAHa per hectare, a well-established proxy for transpiration. Sapwood area was also indirectly estimated with allometric relationships dependent on LiDAR derived SDen and BAHa using a computationally efficient procedure. The individual tree detection (ITD rates for the LMF and NCut methods respectively had 72% and 68% of stems correctly identified, 25% and 20% of stems missed, and 2% and 12% of stems over-segmented. The significantly higher computational requirement of the NCut algorithm makes the LMF method more suitable for predicting SDen across large forested areas. Using NCut derived ITD segments, observed versus predicted stand BAHa had R2 ranging from 0.70 to 0.98 across six catchments, whereas a generalised parsimonious model applied to all sites used the portion of hits greater than 37 m in height (PH37 to explain 68% of BAHa. For extrapolating one ha resolution SAHa estimates across large forested catchments, we found that directly relating SAHa to NCut derived LiDAR indices (R2 = 0.56 was slightly more accurate but computationally more demanding than indirect estimates of SAHa using allometric relationships consisting of BAHa (R2 = 0.50 or a sapwood perimeter index, defined as (BAHaSDen½ (R2 = 0.48.

  19. Predicting the location of human perirhinal cortex, Brodmann's area 35, from MRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Augustinack, Jean C.; Huber, Kristen E.; Stevens, Allison A.

    2013-01-01

    resolution labels to the surface models to localize area 35 in fourteen cases. We validated the area boundaries determined using histological Nissl staining. To test the accuracy of the probabilistic mapping, we measured the Hausdorff distance between the predicted and true labels and found that the median...

  20. Effects of strain rate, mixing ratio, and stress-strain definition on the mechanical behavior of the polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) material as related to its biological applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanafer, Khalil; Duprey, Ambroise; Schlicht, Marty; Berguer, Ramon

    2009-04-01

    Tensile tests on Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) materials were conducted to illustrate the effects of mixing ratio, definition of the stress-strain curve, and the strain rate on the elastic modulus and stress-strain curve. PDMS specimens were prepared according to the ASTM standards for elastic materials. Our results indicate that the physiological elastic modulus depends strongly on the definition of the stress-strain curve, mixing ratio, and the strain rate. For various mixing ratios and strain rates, true stress-strain definition results in higher stress and elastic modulus compared with engineering stress-strain and true stress-engineering strain definitions. The elastic modulus increases as the mixing ratio increases up-to 9:1 ratio after which the elastic modulus begins to decrease even as the mixing ratio continues to increase. The results presented in this study will be helpful to assist the design of in vitro experiments to mimic blood flow in arteries and to understand the complex interaction between blood flow and the walls of arteries using PDMS elastomer.

  1. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Setoguchi, Katsuya; Nakano, Shohki; Nomura, Shinichi

    1991-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behavior of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime which are proposed by the authors are applied to the inelastic analysis and creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated cylinder subjected to cyclic thermal stress. Stress-strain behavior of perforated cylinder is analyzed by modeling the perforated portion to cylinder with equivalent-solid-plate properties. Creep-fatigue lives at around a hole of perforated plates are predicted by using the local stress-strain behavior and are compared with experimentally observed lives. (author)

  3. Controlling factors of uranium mineralization and prospect prediction in Qimantage area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Chunling; Zhu Pengfei; Cai Yuqi; Zhang Wenming; Zhao Yong'an; Song Jiye; Zhang Xiaojin

    2011-01-01

    Based on the analysis of regional geology in Qimantage area, the condition for uranium mineralization is summarized in regional geology setting, volcanic, granite and faults. This study shows that this area has favorable prospect for uranium mineralization. The metallogenic model is built up according to the controlling factors over uranium mineralization. Under this model, six potential areas are predicted in MRAS software with mineralization factors of synthetically geological information method. (authors)

  4. Leaf Area Prediction Using Three Alternative Sampling Methods for Seven Sierra Nevada Conifer Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dryw A. Jones

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of projected tree leaf area using allometric relationships with sapwood cross-sectional area is common in tree- and stand-level production studies. Measuring sapwood is difficult and often requires destructive sampling. This study tested multiple leaf area prediction models across seven diverse conifer species in the Sierra Nevada of California. The best-fit whole tree leaf area prediction model for overall simplicity, accuracy, and utility for all seven species was a nonlinear model with basal area as the primary covariate. A new non-destructive procedure was introduced to extend the branch summation approach to leaf area data collection on trees that cannot be destructively sampled. There were no significant differences between fixed effects assigned to sampling procedures, indicating that data from the tested sampling procedures can be combined for whole tree leaf area modeling purposes. These results indicate that, for the species sampled, accurate leaf area estimates can be obtained through partially-destructive sampling and using common forest inventory data.

  5. Stress-strain behavior under static loading in Gd123 high-temperature superconductors at 77 K

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimoto, Hiroyuki; Murakami, Akira; Teshima, Hidekazu; Morita, Mitsuru

    2013-10-01

    Mechanical properties of melt-growth GdBa2Cu3Ox (Gd123) superconducting samples with 10 wt.% Ag2O and 0.5 wt.% Pt were evaluated at 77 K through flexural tests for specimens cut from the samples in order to estimate the mechanical properties of the Gd123 material without metal substrates, buffer layers or stabilization layers. We discuss the mechanical properties; the Young's modulus and flexural strength with stress-strain behavior at 77 K. The results show that the flexural strength and fracture strain of Gd123 at 77 K are approximately 100 MPa and 0.1%, respectively, and that the origin of the fracture is defects such as pores, impurities and non-superconducting compounds. We also show that the Young's modulus of Gd123 is estimated to be 160-165 GPa.

  6. A THM stress-strain framework for modelling the performance of argillaceous materials in deep repositories for radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laloui, L.; Francois, B.

    2007-01-01

    In the scenarios for deep, geological nuclear-waste repositories, clayey soils will be hydrated, heated, cooled and dried. The numerical modelling of these mechanical processes is a key issue. Performance assessment of deep repositories for heat-generating radioactive waste would benefit from improvements in mechanical stress-strain constitutive modelling of the coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical behaviour. The presented framework allows progress in understanding the most involved phenomena relevant to nuclear-waste repositories and their coupled nature. It could be used both in the design and in the performance assessment of repositories. It may be applied to disposal in clay formations and to hard-rock repositories where artificially compacted clay is to be used as buffer and backfill. Such a constitutive framework may help in understanding some unexplained or controversial behaviours and in defining experimental programmes to answer key questions. (author)

  7. THE CALCULATION OF STRESS-STRAIN STATE OF THREE-LAYER BEAM TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDGE EFFECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kh. M. Muselemov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The work is dedicated to the calculation of the stress-strain state (SSS of the three-layer beam (TLB subject to boundary effects.In this paper, a system of differential equations of equilibrium of the threelayer beam. To solve these equations, it is necessary to know the 12 boundary conditions, co-which depend on support conditions and loading of sandwich beams under study. This system of equations is solved by the application package of mathematical modeling "Maple 5.4." The solution of this system we obtain expressions for determining de-formations and stress all components (bearing layers and filler, a three-layer beam anywhere under specified conditions of fastening the ends of the beam and its loading. 

  8. Investigation of s stressed-strained state and optimization of the T-15 facility electromagnetic system design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaulina, I.G.; Gusev, S.V.; Monoszon, N.A.; Sivkova, G.N.; Spirchenko, Yu.V.; Chvartatskij, R.V.; Churakov, G.F.

    1982-01-01

    The results of investigation of a stressed-strained state (SSS) of superconducting coils of toroidal field (TFSC) of the T-15 facility are presented. The TFSC SSS dependence on the forces acting in the coil plane is reduced to solving the plane problem of the elasticity theory. The problem is solved by the finite element method according to a specially developed program. The TFSC SSS dependence on the action of tilting forces is studied by the structural mechanics method. A refined rod theory taking into account shear strain of the rod cross-section in the direction perpendicular to its axis is used. A comparative analysis of different versions of the TFSC design is carried out. A TFSC design optimized over the SSS is chosen. It is used in constructing the electromagnetic system of the T-15 facility

  9. Theoretical Conversions of Different Hardness and Tensile Strength for Ductile Materials Based on Stress-Strain Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Cai, Li-Xun

    2018-04-01

    Based on the power-law stress-strain relation and equivalent energy principle, theoretical equations for converting between Brinell hardness (HB), Rockwell hardness (HR), and Vickers hardness (HV) were established. Combining the pre-existing relation between the tensile strength ( σ b ) and Hollomon parameters ( K, N), theoretical conversions between hardness (HB/HR/HV) and tensile strength ( σ b ) were obtained as well. In addition, to confirm the pre-existing σ b -( K, N) relation, a large number of uniaxial tensile tests were conducted in various ductile materials. Finally, to verify the theoretical conversions, plenty of statistical data listed in ASTM and ISO standards were adopted to test the robustness of the converting equations with various hardness and tensile strength. The results show that both hardness conversions and hardness-strength conversions calculated from the theoretical equations accord well with the standard data.

  10. Stress/strain characteristics of Cu alloy sheath in situ processed MgB2 superconducting wires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katagiri, Kazumune; Kasaba, Koichi; Shoji, Yoshitaka

    2005-01-01

    The mechanical properties of copper and copper alloy (Cu-Zr, Cu-Be and Cu-Cr) sheath in situ PIT-processed MgB 2 superconducting wires were studied at room temperature (RT) and 4.2 K. The effects of stress-strain on the critical current (I c ) of the wires have also been studied at 4.2 K and in magnetic fields up to 5 T. It has been clarified that alloying the Cu sheath significantly increases the yield and flow stresses of the wires at both RT and 4.2 K. The 0.5% flow stresses of the Cu alloy sheath wire were 147-237 MPa, whereas that of Cu was 55 MPa. At RT, serration corresponding to multiple cracking was observed around a strain of 0.4% and the stress-strain curves saturated beyond that point. The strain dependence of I c prior to the critical strain (ε irr ) was different depending on the magnetic field; being almost constant at 2 T and increasing with strain at 5 T. The I c decreased beyond ε irr , which is much larger for Cu alloy sheath wires as compared to Cu sheath wire. This is due to the difference in the residual compressive strain in the MgB 2 core during cooling from the heat-treatment temperature to 4.2 K, which is determined through relaxation by yielding in the sheath materials. The transverse compression tests revealed that the I c of the Cu alloy sheath wire did not degrade up to 314 MPa, which is also higher than that of Cu sheath wire. (author)

  11. Stress-strain effects in alumina-Cu reinforced Nb3Sn wires fabricated by the tube process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murase, Satoru; Nakayama, Shigeo; Masegi, Tamaki; Koyanagi, Kei; Nomura, Shunji; Shiga, Noriyuki; Kobayashi, Norio; Watanabe, Kazuo.

    1997-01-01

    In order to fabricate a large-bore, high-field magnet which achieves a low coil weight and volume, a high strength compound superconducting wire is required. For those demands we have developed the reinforced Nb 3 Sn wire using alumina dispersion strengthened copper (alumina-Cu) as a reinforcement material and the tube process of the Nb 3 Sn wire fabrication. The ductility study of the composites which consisted of the reinforcement, Nb tube, Cu, and Cu clad Sn brought a 1 km long alumina-Cu reinforced Nb 3 Sn wire successfully. Using fabricated wires measurements and evaluations of critical current density as parameters of magnetic field, tensile stress, tensile strain, and transverse compressive stress, and those of stress-strain curves at 4.2 K were performed. They showed superior performance such as high 0.3% proof stress (240 MPa at 0.3% strain) and high maximum tolerance stress (320 MPa) which were two times as large as those of conventional Cu matrix Nb 3 Sn wire. The strain sensitivity parameters were obtained for the reinforced Nb 3 Sn wire and the Cu matrix one using the scaling law. Residual stress of the component materials caused by cooling down to 4.2 K from heat-treatment temperature was calculated using equivalent Young's modulus, equivalent yield strength, thermal expansion coefficient and other mechanical parameters. Calculated stress-strain curves at 4.2 K for the reinforced Nb 3 Sn wire and the Cu matrix one based on calculation of residual stress, had good agreement with the experimental values. (author)

  12. Simulation of Stress-Strain behavior for one-dimensional aluminum samples subjected to high temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bellini, Anna; Thorborg, Jesper; Hattel, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    , financed by the EU in frame work 6 and born in collaboration with the automobile and foundry industries, to fill the mentioned gap. Through a systematic analysis of experimental tests, this study aims to develop a powerful predicting tool capable of capturing stress relaxation effects through an adequate...

  13. Predicting Traffic Flow in Local Area Networks by the Largest Lyapunov Exponent

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of network traffic are complex and nonlinear, and chaotic behaviors and their prediction, which play an important role in local area networks (LANs, are studied in detail, using the largest Lyapunov exponent. With the introduction of phase space reconstruction based on the time sequence, the high-dimensional traffic is projected onto the low dimension reconstructed phase space, and a reduced dynamic system is obtained from the dynamic system viewpoint. Then, a numerical method for computing the largest Lyapunov exponent of the low-dimensional dynamic system is presented. Further, the longest predictable time, which is related to chaotic behaviors in the system, is studied using the largest Lyapunov exponent, and the Wolf method is used to predict the evolution of the traffic in a local area network by both Dot and Interval predictions, and a reliable result is obtained by the presented method. As the conclusion, the results show that the largest Lyapunov exponent can be used to describe the sensitivity of the trajectory in the reconstructed phase space to the initial values. Moreover, Dot Prediction can effectively predict the flow burst. The numerical simulation also shows that the presented method is feasible and efficient for predicting the complex dynamic behaviors in LAN traffic, especially for congestion and attack in networks, which are the main two complex phenomena behaving as chaos in networks.

  14. Code-B-1 for stress/strain calculation for TRISO fuel particle (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aihara, Jun; Ueta, Shohei; Shibata, Taiju; Sawa, Kazuhiro

    2011-12-01

    We have developed Code-B-1 for the prediction of the failure probabilities of the coated fuel particles for the high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) under operation by modification of an existing code. A finite element method (FEM) is employed for the stress calculation part and Code-B-1 can treat the plastic deformation of the coating layer of the coated fuel particles which the existing code cannot treat. (author)

  15. Watershed area ratio accurately predicts daily streamflow in nested catchments in the Catskills, New York

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris C. Gianfagna

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Watershed area ratio was the most important basin parameter for estimating flow at upstream sites based on downstream flow. The area ratio alone explained 93% of the variance in the slopes of relationships between upstream and downstream flows. Regression analysis indicated that flow at any upstream point can be estimated by multiplying the flow at a downstream reference gage by the watershed area ratio. This method accurately predicted upstream flows at area ratios as low as 0.005. We also observed a very strong relationship (R2 = 0.79 between area ratio and flow–flow slopes in non-nested catchments. Our results indicate that a simple flow estimation method based on watershed area ratios is justifiable, and indeed preferred, for the estimation of daily streamflow in ungaged watersheds in the Catskills region.

  16. Method for predicting future developments of traffic noise in urban areas in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, E.; Hout, D. van den; Janssen, S.; Kugler, U.; MacA, V.

    2010-01-01

    Traffic noise in urban areas in Europe is a major environmental stressor. In this study we present a method for predicting how environmental noise can be expected to develop in the future. In the project HEIMTSA scenarios were developed for all relevant environmental stressors to health, for all

  17. Amazon forest carbon dynamics predicted by profiles of canopy leaf area and light environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. C. Stark; V. Leitold; J. L. Wu; M. O. Hunter; C. V. de Castilho; F. R. C. Costa; S. M. McMahon; G. G. Parker; M. Takako Shimabukuro; M. A. Lefsky; M. Keller; L. F. Alves; J. Schietti; Y. E. Shimabukuro; D. O. Brandao; T. K. Woodcock; N. Higuchi; P. B de Camargo; R. C. de Oliveira; S. R. Saleska

    2012-01-01

    Tropical forest structural variation across heterogeneous landscapes may control above-ground carbon dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that canopy structure (leaf area and light availability) – remotely estimated from LiDAR – control variation in above-ground coarse wood production (biomass growth). Using a statistical model, these factors predicted biomass growth...

  18. Analytical solution for stress, strain and plastic instability of pressurized pipes with volumetric flaws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunha, Sérgio B.; Netto, Theodoro A.

    2012-01-01

    The mechanical behavior of internally pressurized pipes with volumetric flaws is analyzed. The two possible modes of circumferentially straining the pipe wall are identified and associated to hypothesized geometries. The radial deformation that takes place by bending the pipe wall is studied by means of axisymmetric flaws and the membrane strain developed by unequal hoop deformation is analyzed with the help of narrow axial flaws. Linear elastic shell solutions for stress and strain are developed, the plastic behavior is studied and the maximum hoop stress at the flaw is related to the undamaged pipe hoop stress by means of stress concentration factors. The stress concentration factors are employed to obtain equations predicting the pressure at which the pipe fails by plastic instability for both types of flaw. These analytical solutions are validated by comparison with burst tests on 3″ diameter pipes and finite element simulations. Forty-one burst tests were carried out and two materials with very dissimilar plastic behavior, carbon steel and austenitic stainless steel, were used in the experiments. Both the analytical and the numerical predictions showed good correlation with the experimentally observed burst pressures. - Highlights: ► An analytical model for the burst of a pipe with a volumetric flaw is developed. ► Deformation, strain and stress are modeled in the elastic and plastic domains. ► The model is comprehensively validated by experiments and numerical simulations. ► The burst pressure model’s accuracy is equivalent to finite element simulations.

  19. THE STRESS-STRAIN STATE OF ELASTIC HALF-SPACE FROM RUNNING LINEAR LOAD ACTING ON THE LIMITED AND UNLIMITED EXTENT OVER ITS SURFACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. K. Badalakha

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the result of solving the problem of stress-strain state of an elastic half-space because of the load action that uniformly distributed over the line, with the use of untraditional linear dependence of deformations on stressed state that is different from the generalized Hooke’s law.

  20. Characterization of the Mechanical Stress-Strain Performance of Aerospace Alloy Materials Using Frequency-Domain Photoacoustic Ultrasound and Photothermal Methods: An FEM Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huan, Huiting; Mandelis, Andreas; Liu, Lixian

    2018-04-01

    Determining and keeping track of a material's mechanical performance is very important for safety in the aerospace industry. The mechanical strength of alloy materials is precisely quantified in terms of its stress-strain relation. It has been proven that frequency-domain photothermoacoustic (FD-PTA) techniques are effective methods for characterizing the stress-strain relation of metallic alloys. PTA methodologies include photothermal (PT) diffusion and laser thermoelastic photoacoustic ultrasound (PAUS) generation which must be separately discussed because the relevant frequency ranges and signal detection principles are widely different. In this paper, a detailed theoretical analysis of the connection between thermoelastic parameters and stress/strain tensor is presented with respect to FD-PTA nondestructive testing. Based on the theoretical model, a finite element method (FEM) was further implemented to simulate the PT and PAUS signals at very different frequency ranges as an important analysis tool of experimental data. The change in the stress-strain relation has an impact on both thermal and elastic properties, verified by FEM and results/signals from both PT and PAUS experiments.

  1. Spatial prediction of malaria prevalence in an endemic area of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Islam Akramul

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is a major public health burden in Southeastern Bangladesh, particularly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region. Malaria is endemic in 13 districts of Bangladesh and the highest prevalence occurs in Khagrachari (15.47%. Methods A risk map was developed and geographic risk factors identified using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian geostatistical model was developed from previously identified individual and environmental covariates (p Results Predicted high prevalence areas were located along the north-eastern areas, and central part of the study area. Low to moderate prevalence areas were predicted in the southwestern, southeastern and central regions. Individual age and nearness to fragmented forest were associated with malaria prevalence after adjusting the spatial auto-correlation. Conclusion A Bayesian analytical approach using multiple enabling technologies (geographic information systems, global positioning systems, and remote sensing provide a strategy to characterize spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk at a fine scale. Even in the most hyper endemic region of Bangladesh there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in risk. Areas that are predicted to be at high risk, based on the environment but that have not been reached by surveys are identified.

  2. Influence of phosphorus on the tensile stress strain curves in copper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandström, Rolf

    2016-01-01

    Copper canisters are planned to be used for final disposal of spent nuclear fuel in Sweden. The canisters will be exposed to slow plastic straining over extensive periods of time. To be able to predict the mechanical properties a range of basic models have previously been developed for copper with and without phosphorus (Cu-OFP, Cu-OF). Already with the small amount of phosphorus added in the canisters (60 wt. ppm) dramatic improvements in the measured creep strength and the creep ductility are found. The basic models are further developed in the present paper. The influence of phosphorus on slow strain rate tests is analysed. It is shown that the main effect of phosphorus is that it prevents brittle rupture, which is modelled by taking creep cavitation into account.

  3. Influence of phosphorus on the tensile stress strain curves in copper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandström, Rolf, E-mail: rsand@kth.se

    2016-03-15

    Copper canisters are planned to be used for final disposal of spent nuclear fuel in Sweden. The canisters will be exposed to slow plastic straining over extensive periods of time. To be able to predict the mechanical properties a range of basic models have previously been developed for copper with and without phosphorus (Cu-OFP, Cu-OF). Already with the small amount of phosphorus added in the canisters (60 wt. ppm) dramatic improvements in the measured creep strength and the creep ductility are found. The basic models are further developed in the present paper. The influence of phosphorus on slow strain rate tests is analysed. It is shown that the main effect of phosphorus is that it prevents brittle rupture, which is modelled by taking creep cavitation into account.

  4. Influence of phosphorus on the tensile stress strain curves in copper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandström, Rolf

    2016-03-01

    Copper canisters are planned to be used for final disposal of spent nuclear fuel in Sweden. The canisters will be exposed to slow plastic straining over extensive periods of time. To be able to predict the mechanical properties a range of basic models have previously been developed for copper with and without phosphorus (Cu-OFP, Cu-OF). Already with the small amount of phosphorus added in the canisters (60 wt. ppm) dramatic improvements in the measured creep strength and the creep ductility are found. The basic models are further developed in the present paper. The influence of phosphorus on slow strain rate tests is analysed. It is shown that the main effect of phosphorus is that it prevents brittle rupture, which is modelled by taking creep cavitation into account.

  5. Stress, strain, and temperature induced permeability changes in potential repository rocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heard, H.C.; Duba, A.

    1977-01-01

    Work is in progress to assess the permeability characteristics of coarse-grained igneous rocks as affected by pressure, deviatoric stress, and temperature. In order to predict the long-term behavior of these rocks, both virgin and fractured, permeability and all principal strains resulting from an imposed deviatoric stress under various simulated lithostatic pressures are being measured. In addition, compressional as well as shear velocities and electrical conductivity are being evaluated along these principal directions. These simultaneous measurements are being made initially at 25 0 C on a 15 cm diameter by 30 cm long sample in a pressure apparatus controlled by a mini-computer. Correlation of these data with similar field observations should then allow simplified exploration for a suitable repository site as well as the prediction of the response of a mined cavity with both distance and time at this site. After emplacement of the waste canisters, the mechanical stability and hydrologic integrity of this mined repository will be directly influenced by the fracturing of the surrounding rock which results from local temperature differences and the thermal expansion of that rock. Temperatures (and, hence, these differences) in the vicinity of the repository are expected to be affected by the presence of pore fluids (single- or two-phase) in the rock, the heat capacity and the thermal conductivity of this system. In turn, these are all dependent upon lithostatic pressure, pore pressure, and stress. Thermal expansion (and fracturing) will also be affected by the lithostatic (and effective) pressure, the deviatoric stress field, and the initial anisotropy of the rock

  6. Analytical solution for stress, strain and plastic instability of pressurized pipes with volumetric flaws

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cunha, Sergio B., E-mail: sbcunha@petrobras.com.br [PETROBRAS/TRANSPETRO, Av. Pres. Vargas 328 - 7th floor, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20091-060 (Brazil); Netto, Theodoro A., E-mail: tanetto@lts.coppe.ufrj.br [COPPE, Federal University ot Rio de Janeiro, Ocean Engineering Department, PO BOX 68508, Rio de Janeiro - RJ (Brazil)

    2012-01-15

    The mechanical behavior of internally pressurized pipes with volumetric flaws is analyzed. The two possible modes of circumferentially straining the pipe wall are identified and associated to hypothesized geometries. The radial deformation that takes place by bending the pipe wall is studied by means of axisymmetric flaws and the membrane strain developed by unequal hoop deformation is analyzed with the help of narrow axial flaws. Linear elastic shell solutions for stress and strain are developed, the plastic behavior is studied and the maximum hoop stress at the flaw is related to the undamaged pipe hoop stress by means of stress concentration factors. The stress concentration factors are employed to obtain equations predicting the pressure at which the pipe fails by plastic instability for both types of flaw. These analytical solutions are validated by comparison with burst tests on 3 Double-Prime diameter pipes and finite element simulations. Forty-one burst tests were carried out and two materials with very dissimilar plastic behavior, carbon steel and austenitic stainless steel, were used in the experiments. Both the analytical and the numerical predictions showed good correlation with the experimentally observed burst pressures. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An analytical model for the burst of a pipe with a volumetric flaw is developed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Deformation, strain and stress are modeled in the elastic and plastic domains. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model is comprehensively validated by experiments and numerical simulations. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The burst pressure model's accuracy is equivalent to finite element simulations.

  7. Predicted tyre-soil interface area and vertical stress distribution based on loading characteristics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjønning, Per; Stettler, M.; Keller, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The upper boundary condition for all models simulating stress patterns throughout the soil profile is the stress distribution at the tyre–soil interface. The so-called FRIDA model (Schjønning et al., 2008. Biosyst. Eng. 99, 119–133) treats the contact area as a superellipse and has been shown...... of the actual to recommended inflation pressure ratio. We found that VT and Kr accounted for nearly all variation in the data with respect to the contact area. The contact area width was accurately described by a combination of tyre width and Kr, while the superellipse squareness parameter, n, diminished...... slightly with increasing Kr. Estimated values of the contact area length related to observed data with a standard deviation of about 0.06 m. A difference between traction and implement tyres called for separate prediction equations, especially for the contact area. The FRIDA parameters α and β, reflecting...

  8. The study on stress-strain state of the spring at high temperature using ABAQUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cylindrical helical springs are widely used in the elements of thermal energy devices. It is necessary to guarantee the stability of the stress state of spring in high temperature. Relaxation phenomenon of stress is studied in this paper. Calculations are carried out in the environment of ABAQUS. The verification is taken out using analytical calculations.This paper describes the distribution and character of stress contour lines on the cross section of spring under the condition of instantaneous load, explicates the relaxation law with time. Research object is cylindrical helical spring, that working at high temperature. The purpose of this work is to get the stress relaxation law of spring, and to guarantee the long-term strength.This article presents the basic theory of helical spring. Establishes spring mathematical model of creep under the loads of compression and torsion. The stress formulas of each component in the cross section of spring are given. The calculation process of relaxation is analyzed in the program ABAQUS.In this paper compare the analytical formulas of spring stress with the simulation results, which are created by program ABAQUS.Finite element model for stress creep analysis in the cross section is created, material of spring – stainless steel 10X18N9T, springs are used at the temperature 650℃.At the beginning, stress-stain of spring is in the elastic state. Analyzes the change law of creep stress under the condition of constant load and a fixed compression.When analyzing under the condition of a fixed compression, the stresses are quickly decreased in most area in the cross section of spring, and the point of minimum shear stress gradually moves to the direction of outer diameter, because of this, stresses in a small area near the center increase slowly at first then decrease gradually with time. When analyzing under the condition of constant load, the stresses are quickly decreased in the around area and in creased

  9. Predicting the presence and cover of management relevant invasive plant species on protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacona, Gwenllian; Price, Franklin D; Armsworth, Paul R

    2016-01-15

    Invasive species are a management concern on protected areas worldwide. Conservation managers need to predict infestations of invasive plants they aim to treat if they want to plan for long term management. Many studies predict the presence of invasive species, but predictions of cover are more relevant for management. Here we examined how predictors of invasive plant presence and cover differ across species that vary in their management priority. To do so, we used data on management effort and cover of invasive plant species on central Florida protected areas. Using a zero-inflated multiple regression framework, we showed that protected area features can predict the presence and cover of the focal species but the same features rarely explain both. There were several predictors of either presence or cover that were important across multiple species. Protected areas with three days of frost per year or fewer were more likely to have occurrences of four of the six focal species. When invasive plants were present, their proportional cover was greater on small preserves for all species, and varied with surrounding household density for three species. None of the predictive features were clearly related to whether species were prioritized for management or not. Our results suggest that predictors of cover and presence can differ both within and across species but do not covary with management priority. We conclude that conservation managers need to select predictors of invasion with care as species identity can determine the relationship between predictors of presence and the more management relevant predictors of cover. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick; Hovius, Niels

    2017-07-01

    We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56 % of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95 % of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.

  11. The Mine Working's Roof Stress-strain State Research in the Perspective of Development of New Coal Deposits of Kuzbass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuk, Svetlana; Bedarev, Nikolay; Lyubimov, Oleg; Shaikhislamov, Arthur

    2017-11-01

    The present now normative and information base is regulating of the Kuzbass coal seams treatment but is not considering of the mining-geological and mining-engineering conditions for new coal deposits. The analysis of works for the research of the rock pressure manifestation shows that in many cases numerous results require of the practical confirmation in mine conditions directly, and also confirmation by the physical models. This work reflects one of the stages of research on changing the stress-strain state of the massif with the formation of unloading zones, increased rock pressure, and recovery. As an example, the results of the information analysis obtained by means of contour and depth benchmarks on the ventilation drift in the course of the 34 seam treatment at the "Tagaryshskaya" mine are presented. The differences of the analyzed results from the results obtained in the conditions of other mines are established. The values of the drift's roof stratification on the contour and at the distance from the contour of 1.0 to 4.0 m are given. The revealed maximums of the rock pressure and pressure changes in the hydraulic supports of the complex used for movement are presented. Recommendations on the choice of the anchor's length taking into account the roof stratification size are given. The further research stages on models from equivalent materials at various geometric scales are proposed.

  12. Analysis of stress-strain relationship in materials containing voids by means of plastic finite element method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiraishi, Haruki; Tabuchi, Masaaki

    2000-01-01

    Applying the finite element method in two dimensions, an analysis is performed to derive the stress-strain relationship of material containing voids in matrix, and which is subjected to large deformation. The conditions assumed for the analysis are applicability of continuum body mechanics, Mises yield criterion, J2 flow theory, power work-hardening, plane stress in two-dimensional system and uniform cyclically recurring void distribution. Taking as example a case of material presenting 0.3 work-hardening, it is indicated from the analysis that: With voids arrayed in square lattice, total elongation would be little affected by change in void size; With a void spacing in lattice of 10 μ m, a uniform elongation 12-14% should be obtained in a wide range of void sizes from 0.01 to 8.0 μm; Tensile strength should start to lower at a void areal fraction of around 1%; A sharply lowered uniform elongation of a level far below 1% should be presented by material of low work-hardening exponent. The severe decline of ductility seen with 316 stainless steel upon neutron irradiation at temperatures around 600 K is interpreted as resulting from a combination of low work-hardening and the presence of voids in matrix. (author)

  13. STRESS-STRAIN STATE OF ROCKFILL DAM DOUBLE-LAYER FACE MADE OF REINFORCED CONCRETE AND SOIL-CEMENT CONCRETE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sainov Mikhail Petrovich

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available There was studied the stress-strain state of 215 m high rockfill dam where the seepage-control element is presented by a reinforced concrete face of soil-cement concrete placed on the under-face zone. Calculations were carried out for two possible variants of deformability of rock outline taking into account the non-linearity of its deformative properties. It was obtained that the reinforced concrete face and the soil-cement concrete under-face zone work jointly as a single construction - a double-layer face. As the face assembly resting on rock is made with a sliding joint the scheme of its static operation is similar to the that of the beam operation on the elastic foundation. At that, the upstream surface of the double-layer face is in the compressed zone and lower one is in the tensile zone. This protects the face against cracking on the upstream surface but threatens with structural failure of soil-cement concrete. In order to avoid appearance of cracks in soil-cement concrete part due to tension it is necessary to achieve proper compaction of rockfill and arrange transverse joints in the double-layer face.

  14. Random cyclic stress-strain responses of a stainless steel pipe-weld metal. I. A statistical investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Y.X.; Wang, J.N.

    2000-01-01

    For pt.II see ibid., vol.199, p.315-26, 2000. This paper pays a special attention to the issue that there is a significant scatter of the stress-strain responses of a nuclear engineering material, 1Cr18Ni9Ti stainless steel pipe-weld metal. Statistical investigation is made to the cyclic stress amplitudes of this material. Three considerations are given. They consist of the total fit, the consistency with fatigue physics and the safety in practice of the seven commonly used statistical distributions, namely Weibull (two- and three-parameter), normal, lognormal, extreme minimum value, extreme maximum value and exponential. Results reveal that the data follow meanwhile the seven distributions but the local effects of the distributions yield a significant difference. Any of the normal, lognormal, extreme minimum value and extreme maximum value distributions might be an appropriate assumed distribution for characterizing the data. The normal and extreme minimum models are excellent. Other distributions do not fit the data as they violate two or three of the mentioned considerations. (orig.)

  15. Algorithm for study on the stressed-strained state of thermonuclear device vacuum chambers under dynamic loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhuravleva, A.M.; Litvinov, V.B.

    1982-01-01

    The problem of dynamic analysis of stressed-strained state of vacuum chambers is vital for large thermonuclear devices during the stall of the plasma-filament apd other tpansitional operation regimes when loading for a chamber are nonstationary. To plot a mathematical model the design of the vacuum chamber is discreted on the basis of the method of final elements. To approximate vacuum shell, a plate triangular element with 3 joint points and 5 parameters in the joint is used. It is obtained due to the unity of the bemded element and the element for the flat problem. To investigate nonstationary oscillations of vacuum chambers discreted on the basis of the method of final elements, it is suggested to use the numeric conversion of the Japlace transformation. On the basis of the algorithm suggested a program of numerical function conversion is developed. Test calculations have shown a good stability of the algorithm when selecting the values of transformation parameter in the range of lower intrinsic system frequencies. The advantage of the above method is in the fact that the time-structure shift function is found instantly in the form of the series for the whole time interval and does not require temporary steps, which bring about large expenses of counting time and error accumulation

  16. Model-based methodology to develop the isochronous stress-strain curves for modified 9Cr steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bock; Jung, Ik Hee

    2008-01-01

    Since high temperature materials are designed with a target life based on a specified amount of allowable strain and stress, their Isochronous Stress-Strain Curves (ISSC) are needed to avoid an excessive deformation during an intended service life. In this paper, a model-based methodology to develop the isochronous curves for a G91 steel is described. Creep strain-time curves were reviewed for typical high-temperature materials, and Garofalo's model which conforms well to the primary and secondary creep stages was proper for the G91 steel. Procedures to obtain an instantaneous elastic-plastic strain, ε i were given in detail. Also, to accurately determine the P 1 , P 2 and P 3 parameters in the Garofalo's model, a Nonlinear Least Square Fitting (NLSF) method was adopted and useful. The long-term creep curves for the G91 steel can be modeled by the Garofalo's model, and the long-term ISSCs can be developed using the modeled creep curves

  17. Reading a suspenseful literary text activates brain areas related to social cognition and predictive inference.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moritz Lehne

    Full Text Available Stories can elicit powerful emotions. A key emotional response to narrative plots (e.g., novels, movies, etc. is suspense. Suspense appears to build on basic aspects of human cognition such as processes of expectation, anticipation, and prediction. However, the neural processes underlying emotional experiences of suspense have not been previously investigated. We acquired functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data while participants read a suspenseful literary text (E.T.A. Hoffmann's "The Sandman" subdivided into short text passages. Individual ratings of experienced suspense obtained after each text passage were found to be related to activation in the medial frontal cortex, bilateral frontal regions (along the inferior frontal sulcus, lateral premotor cortex, as well as posterior temporal and temporo-parietal areas. The results indicate that the emotional experience of suspense depends on brain areas associated with social cognition and predictive inference.

  18. Prediction of bead area contact load at the tire-wheel interface using NASTRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. H. S.

    1982-01-01

    The theoretical prediction of the bead area contact load at the tire wheel interface using NASTRAN is reported. The application of the linear code to a basically nonlinear problem results in excessive deformation of the structure and the tire-wheel contact conditions become impossible to achieve. A psuedo-nonlinear approach was adopted in which the moduli of the cord reinforced composite are increased so that the computed key deformations matched that of the experiment. Numerical results presented are discussed.

  19. Predicting Nitrate Transport under Future Climate Scenarios beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Akbariyeh, S.; Gomez Peña, C. A.; Bartlet-Hunt, S.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the impacts of future climate change on soil hydrological processes and solute transport is crucial to develop appropriate strategies to minimize adverse impacts of agricultural activities on groundwater quality. The goal of this work is to evaluate the direct effects of climate change on the fate and transport of nitrate beneath a center-pivot irrigated corn field in Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) site. Future groundwater recharge rate and actual evapotranspiration rate were predicted based on an inverse modeling approach using climate data generated by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which was downscaled from global CCSM4 model to a resolution of 24 by 24 km2. A groundwater flow model was first calibrated based on historical groundwater table measurement and was then applied to predict future groundwater table in the period 2057-2060. Finally, predicted future groundwater recharge rate, actual evapotranspiration rate, and groundwater level, together with future precipitation data from WRF, were used in a three-dimensional (3D) model, which was validated based on rich historic data set collected from 1993-1996, to predict nitrate concentration in soil and groundwater from the year 2057 to 2060. Future groundwater recharge was found to be decreasing in the study area compared to average groundwater recharge data from the literature. Correspondingly, groundwater elevation was predicted to decrease (1 to 2 ft) over the five years of simulation. Predicted higher transpiration data from climate model resulted in lower infiltration of nitrate concentration in subsurface within the root zone.

  20. Simulating urban-scale air pollutants and their predicting capabilities over the Seoul metropolitan area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Il-Soo; Lee, Suk-Jo; Kim, Cheol-Hee; Yoo, Chul; Lee, Yong-Hee

    2004-06-01

    Urban-scale air pollutants for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter > or = 10 microm, and ozone (O3) were simulated over the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea, during the period of July 2-11, 2002, and their predicting capabilities were discussed. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) and the highly disaggregated anthropogenic and the biogenic gridded emissions (1 km x 1 km) recently prepared by the Korean Ministry of Environment were applied. Wind fields with observational nudging in the prognostic meteorological model TAPM are optionally adopted to comparatively examine the meteorological impact on the prediction capabilities of urban-scale air pollutants. The result shows that the simulated concentrations of secondary air pollutant largely agree with observed levels with an index of agreement (IOA) of >0.6, whereas IOAs of approximately 0.4 are found for most primary pollutants in the major cities, reflecting the quality of emission data in the urban area. The observationally nudged wind fields with higher IOAs have little effect on the prediction for both primary and secondary air pollutants, implying that the detailed wind field does not consistently improve the urban air pollution model performance if emissions are not well specified. However, the robust highest concentrations are better described toward observations by imposing observational nudging, suggesting the importance of wind fields for the predictions of extreme concentrations such as robust highest concentrations, maximum levels, and >90th percentiles of concentrations for both primary and secondary urban-scale air pollutants.

  1. Mountain Pine Beetles, Salvage Logging, and Hydrologic Change: Predicting Wet Ground Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Rex

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The mountain pine beetle epidemic in British Columbia has covered 18.1 million hectares of forest land showing the potential for exceptionally large-scale disturbance to influence watershed hydrology. Pine stands killed by the epidemic can experience reduced levels of evapotranspiration and precipitation interception, which can translate into an increase in soil moisture as observed by some forest practitioners during salvage logging in the epicenter of the outbreak. They reported the replacement of summer ground, dry firm soil areas, with winter ground areas identified by having wetter, less firm soils upon which forestry equipment operation is difficult or impossible before winter freeze-up. To decrease the likelihood of soil disturbance from harvesting, a set of hazard indicators was developed to predict wet ground areas in areas heavily infested by the mountain pine beetle. Hazard indicators were based on available GIS data, aerial photographs, and local knowledge. Indicators were selected by an iterative process that began with office-based selection of potential indicators, model development and prediction, field verification, and model refinement to select those indicators that explained most field data variability. Findings indicate that the most effective indicators were lodgepole pine content, understory, drainage density, soil texture, and the topographic index.

  2. Real - time Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Groundwater in Typical Arid Area Based on SPASS Improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-ming

    2018-03-01

    The establishment of traditional groundwater numerical simulation model, parameter identification and inspection process, especially the water level fitting and the actual observation of the value obtained compared to a large error. Based on the SPASS software, a large number of statistical analysis of the numerical simulation results show that the complexity of the terrain in the study area, the distribution of lithology and the influence of the parameters on the groundwater level in the study area have great influence on the groundwater level. Through the multi-factor analysis and adjustment, the simulated groundwater flow and the actual observation are similar. Then, the final result is taken as the standard value, and the groundwater in the study area is simulated and predicted in real time. The simulation results provide technical support for the further development and utilization of the local water resources.

  3. Predicting the Impact of Urban Green Areas on Microclimate Changes of Mashhad Residential Areas during the Hottest Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    zahra karimian

    2017-09-01

    between receptors was obtained at 13 hour. The trend of relative humidity changes was very similar in both residential sites. In these two sites the most differences in the relative humidity was obtained at 12 oclock.. In addition, the trend of Predicted Mean Vote (PMV in Andisheh residential block showed that these changes in central and south-west part of the site were similar. The simulation with vegetation in the sites, also, showed that the trend of temperature and relative humidity changes were similar. The trends of temperature changes in residential site, Hesabi, in the defined receptors were very similar. So that temperature increased from 12 oclock to 15. While the trend of relative humidity changes was quite the reverse. This study results showed that the difference in temperature, relative humidity and PMV between measured and simulated data were minimal in both residential sites. Moreover, the data comparison of PMV indicated that in both residential sites, despite of simulation with vegetation, the human thermal comfort did not improve, so that these sites were in the range of extreme heat stress. There are several reasons to justify this issue, such as the percentage and the type of vegetation, factors related to the topography and geography of area, building distribution and density, type and color of the building materials and surfaces, etc. However, in this part of the study, other factors were constant, except vegetation. It seems that with increase of percentage and the ratio of vegetation, changes in temperature, relative humidity and other micro-climate factors, are created, but sometimes for the reasons stated, the temperature during the hottest period of the year is too high so that increase in vegetation will have little impact on outdoor thermal comfort. It might be the simulated area on these sites as well as the type and the ratio of the selected species to reduce the temperature and increase the relative humidity have been not adequately

  4. APPLICATION OF COMPUTER SIMULATION IN THE EVALUATION OF THE STRESS-STRAIN STATE OF LOAD-BEARING STRUCTURES OF BUILDINGS MASONRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoliy I. Bedov

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The results of studies on the analysis of the stress-strain state of the structures of bearing walls of high-hollow pottery. The way of modeling masonry finite element method. The experimental study of masonry structures produced in the Republic of Bashkortostan high-hollow pottery, set the nature of their work load, the mechanism of destruction. The results of the comparative evaluation of the calculations in the software package and the traditional “manual” calculation.

  5. Simple area-based measurement for multidetector computed tomography to predict left ventricular size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlett, Christopher L.; Kwait, Dylan C.; Mahabadi, Amir A.; Hoffmann, Udo; Bamberg, Fabian; O'Donnell, Christopher J.; Fox, Caroline S.

    2010-01-01

    Measures of left ventricular (LV) mass and dimensions are independent predictors of morbidity and mortality. We determined whether an axial area-based method by computed tomography (CT) provides an accurate estimate of LV mass and volume. A total of 45 subjects (49% female, 56.0 ± 12 years) with a wide range of LV geometry underwent contrast-enhanced 64-slice CT. LV mass and volume were derived from 3D data. 2D images were analysed to determine LV area, the direct transverse cardiac diameter (dTCD) and the cardiothoracic ratio (CTR). Furthermore, feasibility was confirmed in 100 Framingham Offspring Cohort subjects. 2D measures of LV area, dTCD and CTR were 47.3 ± 8 cm 2 , 14.7 ± 1.5 cm and 0.54 ± 0.05, respectively. 3D-derived LV volume (end-diastolic) and mass were 148.9 ± 45 cm 3 and 124.2 ± 34 g, respectively. Excellent inter- and intra-observer agreement were shown for 2D LV area measurements (both intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) = 0.99, p 0.27). Compared with traditionally used CTR, LV size can be accurately predicted based on a simple and highly reproducible axial LV area-based measurement. (orig.)

  6. Using Monte Carlo/Gaussian Based Small Area Estimates to Predict Where Medicaid Patients Reside.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, Jess J; Wen, Xuejin; Goel, Satyender; Zhou, Jing; Fu, Lina; Kho, Abel N

    2016-01-01

    Electronic Health Records (EHR) are rapidly becoming accepted as tools for planning and population health 1,2 . With the national dialogue around Medicaid expansion 12 , the role of EHR data has become even more important. For their potential to be fully realized and contribute to these discussions, techniques for creating accurate small area estimates is vital. As such, we examined the efficacy of developing small area estimates for Medicaid patients in two locations, Albuquerque and Chicago, by using a Monte Carlo/Gaussian technique that has worked in accurately locating registered voters in North Carolina 11 . The Albuquerque data, which includes patient address, will first be used to assess the accuracy of the methodology. Subsequently, it will be combined with the EHR data from Chicago to develop a regression that predicts Medicaid patients by US Block Group. We seek to create a tool that is effective in translating EHR data's potential for population health studies.

  7. Distributed Model Predictive Load Frequency Control of Multi-area Power System with DFIGs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yi Zhang; Xiangjie Liu; Bin Qu

    2017-01-01

    Reliable load frequency control(LFC) is crucial to the operation and design of modern electric power systems. Considering the LFC problem of a four-area interconnected power system with wind turbines, this paper presents a distributed model predictive control(DMPC) based on coordination scheme.The proposed algorithm solves a series of local optimization problems to minimize a performance objective for each control area. The generation rate constraints(GRCs), load disturbance changes, and the wind speed constraints are considered. Furthermore, the DMPC algorithm may reduce the impact of the randomness and intermittence of wind turbine effectively. A performance comparison between the proposed controller with and without the participation of the wind turbines is carried out. Analysis and simulation results show possible improvements on closed–loop performance, and computational burden with the physical constraints.

  8. Identifying factors related to Achilles tendon stress, strain, and stiffness before and after 6 months of growth in youth 10-14 years of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neugebauer, Jennifer M; Hawkins, David A

    2012-09-21

    The purposes of this study were (1) determine if youth peak Achilles tendon (AT) strain, peak AT stress, and AT stiffness, measured during an isometric plantar flexion, differed after six months (mos) of growth, and (2) determine if sex, physical activity level (Physical Activity Questionnaire (PAQ-C)), and/or growth rate (GR) were related to these properties. AT stress, strain, and stiffness were quantified in 20 boys (13.47±0.81 years) and 22 girls (11.18±0.82 years) at 2 times (0 and 6 mos). GR (change in height in 6 mos) was not significantly different between boys and girls (3.5±1.4 and 3.4±1.1cm/6 mos respectively). Peak AT strain and stiffness (mean 3.8±0.4% and 128.9±153.6N/mm, respectively) did not differ between testing sessions or sex. Peak AT stress (22.1±2.4 and 24.0±2.1MPa at 0 and 6 mos, respectively) did not differ between sex and increased significantly at 6 mos due to a significant decrease in AT cross-sectional area (40.6±1.3 and 38.1±1.6mm(2) at 0 and 6 mos, respectively) with no significant difference in peak AT force (882.3±93.9 and 900.3± 65.5N at 0 and 6 mos, respectively). Peak AT stress was significantly greater in subjects with greater PAQ-C scores (9.1% increase with 1 unit increase in PAQ-C score) and smaller in subjects with faster GRs (13.8% decrease with 1cm/6 mos increase in GR). These results indicate that of the AT mechanical properties quantified, none differed between sex, and only peak AT stress significantly differed after 6 months and was related to GR and physical activity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. GIS Based Distributed Runoff Predictions in Variable Source Area Watersheds Employing the SCS-Curve Number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhuis, T. S.; Mendoza, G.; Lyon, S. W.; Gerard Marchant, P.; Walter, M. T.; Schneiderman, E.

    2003-04-01

    Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be ubiquitously used in GIS-BASED water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed within an integrated GIS modeling environment a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Spatial representation of hydrologic processes is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point source pollution. The methodology presented here uses the traditional SCS-CN method to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and uses a topographic index to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was incorporated in an existing GWLF water quality model and applied to sub-watersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State. We found that the distributed CN-VSA approach provided a physically-based method that gives realistic results for watersheds with VSA hydrology.

  10. Prediction of interfacial area transport in a scaled 8×8 BWR rod bundle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, X.; Schlegel, J.P.; Liu, Y.; Paranjape, S.; Hibiki, T.; Ishii, M. [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, 400 Central Dr., West Lafayette, IN 47907-2017 (United States); Bajorek, S.; Ireland, A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

    2016-12-15

    In the two-fluid model, it is important to give an accurate prediction for the interfacial area concentration. In order to achieve this goal, the interfacial area transport equation has been developed. This study focuses on the benchmark of IATE performance in a rod bundle geometry. A set of interfacial area concentration source and sink term models are proposed for a rod bundle geometry based on the confined channel IATE model. This model was selected as a basis because of the relative similarity of the two geometries. Benchmarking of the new model with interfacial area concentration data in an 8×8 rod bundle test section which has been scaled from an actual BWR fuel bundle is performed. The model shows good agreement in bubbly and cap-bubbly flows, which are similar in many types of geometries, while it shows some discrepancy in churn-turbulent flow regime. This discrepancy may be due to the geometrical differences between the actual rod bundle test facility and the facility used to collect the data which benchmarked the original source and sink models.

  11. FORECAST OF INFLUENCING THE UNDERGROUND COMPLEX CONSTRUCTION ON A CONTEXT AREA

    OpenAIRE

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich; Alekseev German Valer’evich

    2017-01-01

    The present paper is concerned with the method, research objective and the results of numerical simulation of change of stress-strain behaviour of soil masses when constructing underground complex. In order to get consistent results of forecast, all major factors affecting the results of design studies have been taken into account, including spatial performance of soil mass, enclosure structure and an adjacent context area, phasing of construction, site investigation, initial stress-strain be...

  12. Prediction of adiabatic bubbly flows in TRACE using the interfacial area transport equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Talley, J.; Worosz, T.; Kim, S.; Mahaffy, J.; Bajorek, S.; Tien, K.

    2011-01-01

    The conventional thermal-hydraulic reactor system analysis codes utilize a two-field, two-fluid formulation to model two-phase flows. To close this model, static flow regime transition criteria and algebraic relations are utilized to estimate the interfacial area concentration (a i ). To better reflect the continuous evolution of two-phase flow, an experimental version of TRACE is being developed which implements the interfacial area transport equation (IATE) to replace the flow regime based approach. Dynamic estimation of a i is provided through the use of mechanistic models for bubble coalescence and disintegration. To account for the differences in bubble interactions and drag forces, two-group bubble transport is sought. As such, Group 1 accounts for the transport of spherical and distorted bubbles, while Group 2 accounts for the cap, slug, and churn-turbulent bubbles. Based on this categorization, a two-group IATE applicable to the range of dispersed two-phase flows has been previously developed. Recently, a one-group, one-dimensional, adiabatic IATE has been implemented into the TRACE code with mechanistic models accounting for: (1) bubble breakup due to turbulent impact of an eddy on a bubble, (2) bubble coalescence due to random collision driven by turbulent eddies, and (3) bubble coalescence due to the acceleration of a bubble in the wake region of a preceding bubble. To demonstrate the enhancement of the code's capability using the IATE, experimental data for a i , void fraction, and bubble velocity measured by a multi-sensor conductivity probe are compared to both the IATE and flow regime based predictions. In total, 50 air-water vertical co-current upward and downward bubbly flow conditions in pipes with diameters ranging from 2.54 to 20.32 cm are evaluated. It is found that TRACE, using the conventional flow regime relation, always underestimates a i . Moreover, the axial trend of the a i prediction is always quasi-linear because a i in the

  13. Improved USLE-K factor prediction: A case study on water erosion areas in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Wang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil erodibility (K-factor is an essential factor in soil erosion prediction and conservation practises. The major obstacles to any accurate, large-scale soil erodibility estimation are the lack of necessary data on soil characteristics and the misuse of variable K-factor calculators. In this study, we assessed the performance of available erodibility estimators Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE, Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC and the Geometric Mean Diameter based (Dg model for different geographic regions based on the Chinese soil erodibility database (CSED. Results showed that previous estimators overestimated almost all K-values. Furthermore, only the USLE and Dg approaches could be directly and reliably applicable to black and loess soil regions. Based on the nonlinear best fitting techniques, we improved soil erodibility prediction by combining Dg and soil organic matter (SOM. The NSE, R2 and RE values were 0.94, 0.67 and 9.5% after calibrating the results independently; similar model performance was showed for the validation process. The results obtained via the proposed approach were more accurate that the former K-value predictions. Moreover, those improvements allowed us to effectively establish a regional soil erodibility map (1:250,000 scale of water erosion areas in China. The mean K-value of Chinese water erosion regions was 0.0321 (t ha h·(ha MJ mm−1 with a standard deviation of 0.0107 (t ha h·(ha MJ mm−1; K-values present a decreasing trend from North to South in water erosion areas in China. The yield soil erodibility dataset also satisfactorily corresponded to former K-values from different scales (local, regional, and national.

  14. Limited-area short-range ensemble predictions targeted for heavy rain in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sattler

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Inherent uncertainties in short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF from the high-resolution, limited-area numerical weather prediction model DMI-HIRLAM (LAM are addressed using two different approaches to creating a small ensemble of LAM simulations, with focus on prediction of extreme rainfall events over European river basins. The first ensemble type is designed to represent uncertainty in the atmospheric state of the initial condition and at the lateral LAM boundaries. The global ensemble prediction system (EPS from ECMWF serves as host model to the LAM and provides the state perturbations, from which a small set of significant members is selected. The significance is estimated on the basis of accumulated precipitation over a target area of interest, which contains the river basin(s under consideration. The selected members provide the initial and boundary data for the ensemble integration in the LAM. A second ensemble approach tries to address a portion of the model-inherent uncertainty responsible for errors in the forecasted precipitation field by utilising different parameterisation schemes for condensation and convection in the LAM. Three periods around historical heavy rain events that caused or contributed to disastrous river flooding in Europe are used to study the performance of the LAM ensemble designs. The three cases exhibit different dynamic and synoptic characteristics and provide an indication of the ensemble qualities in different weather situations. Precipitation analyses from the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD are used as the verifying reference and a comparison of daily rainfall amounts is referred to the respective river basins of the historical cases.

  15. Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, F.; Cooper, A.H.; Johnson, K.S.

    2008-01-01

    Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility and, commonly, a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes may help in investigating dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs, and swallow holes are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database-the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment, and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of

  16. Diagnostic test of predicted height model in Indonesian elderly: a study in an urban area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatmah Fatmah

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim In an anthropometric assessment, elderly are frequently unable to measure their height due to mobility and skeletal deformities. An alternative is to use a surrogate value of stature from arm span, knee height, and sitting height. The equations developed for predicting height in Indonesian elderly using these three predictors. The equations put in the nutritional assessment card (NSA of older people. Before the card which is the first new technology in Indonesia will be applied in the community, it should be tested. The study aimed was to conduct diagnostic test of predicted height model in the card compared to actual height.Methods Model validation towards 400 healthy elderly conducted in Jakarta City with cross-sectional design. The study was the second validation test of the model besides Depok City representing semi urban area which was undertaken as the first study.Result Male elderly had higher mean age, height, weight, arm span, knee height, and sitting height as compared to female elderly. The highest correlation between knee height and standing height was similar in women (r = 0.80; P < 0.001 and men (r = 0.78; P < 0.001, and followed by arm span and sitting height. Knee height had the lowest difference with standing height in men (3.13 cm and women (2.79 cm. Knee height had the biggest sensitivity (92.2%, and the highest specificity on sitting height (91.2%.Conclusion Stature prediction equation based on knee-height, arm span, and sitting height are applicable for nutritional status assessment in Indonesian elderly. (Med J Indones 2010;19:199-204Key words: diagnostic test, elderly, predicted height model

  17. Vegetation cover, tidal amplitude and land area predict short-term marsh vulnerability in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoolmaster, Donald; Stagg, Camille L.; Sharp, Leigh Anne; McGinnis, Tommy S.; Wood, Bernard; Piazza, Sarai

    2018-01-01

    The loss of coastal marshes is a topic of great concern, because these habitats provide tangible ecosystem services and are at risk from sea-level rise and human activities. In recent years, significant effort has gone into understanding and modeling the relationships between the biological and physical factors that contribute to marsh stability. Simulation-based process models suggest that marsh stability is the product of a complex feedback between sediment supply, flooding regime and vegetation response, resulting in elevation gains sufficient to match the combination of relative sea-level rise and losses from erosion. However, there have been few direct, empirical tests of these models, because long-term datasets that have captured sufficient numbers of marsh loss events in the context of a rigorous monitoring program are rare. We use a multi-year data set collected by the Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) that includes transitions of monitored vegetation plots to open water to build and test a predictive model of near-term marsh vulnerability. We found that despite the conclusions of previous process models, elevation change had no ability to predict the transition of vegetated marsh to open water. However, we found that the processes that drive elevation change were significant predictors of transitions. Specifically, vegetation cover in prior year, land area in the surrounding 1 km2 (an estimate of marsh fragmentation), and the interaction of tidal amplitude and position in tidal frame were all significant factors predicting marsh loss. This suggests that 1) elevation change is likely better a predictor of marsh loss at time scales longer than we consider in this study and 2) the significant predictive factors affect marsh vulnerability through pathways other than elevation change, such as resistance to erosion. In addition, we found that, while sensitivity of marsh vulnerability to the predictive factors varied spatially across coastal Louisiana

  18. Improved Storm Monitoring and Prediction for the San Francisco Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cifelli, R.; Chandrasekar, V.; Anderson, M.; Davis, G.

    2017-12-01

    The Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) System is a multi-faceted project to improve precipitation and hydrologic monitoring, prediction, and decision support for the San Francisco Bay Area. The Bay Area faces a multitude of threats from extreme events, including disrupted transportation from flooded roads and railroad lines, water management challenges related to storm water, river and reservoir management and storm-related damage demanding emergency response. The threats occur on spatial scales ranging from local communities to the entire region and time scales ranging from hours to days. These challenges will be exacerbated by future sea level rise, more extreme weather events and increased vulnerabilities. AQPI is a collaboration of federal, state and local governments with assistance from the research community. Led by NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, in partnership with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, USGS, and Scripps, AQPI is a four-year effort funded in part by a grant from the California Department of Water Resource's Integrated Regional Water Management Program. The Sonoma County Water Agency is serving as the local sponsor of the project. Other local participants include the Santa Clara Valley Water District, San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, and the Bay Area Flood Protection Agencies Association. AQPI will provide both improved observing capabilities and a suite of numerical forecast models to produce accurate and timely information for benefit of flood management, emergency response, water quality, ecosystem services, water supply and transportation management for the Bay Area. The resulting information will support decision making to mitigate flood risks, secure water supplies, minimize water quality impacts to the Bay from combined sewer overflows, and have improved lead-time on coastal and Bay inundation from extreme storms like Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The project is expected to

  19. Cesium residue leachate migration in the tailings management area of a mine site : predicted vs. actual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solylo, P.; Ramsey, D. [Wardrop Engineering, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Mining and Minerals Section

    2009-07-01

    This paper reported on a study at a cesium products facility (CPF) that manufactures a non-toxic cesium-formate drilling fluid. The facility operates adjacent to a pollucite/tantalum/spodumene mine. The CPF was developed as a closed system, with the residue tailings slurry from the CPF process discharged to doublelined containment cells. Groundwater monitoring has shown that leachate has affected near-surface porewater quality within the tailings management area (TMA). Elevated concentrations of calcium, sulphate, strontium, cesium, and rubidium were used to identify the leachate. Porewater at the base of the tailings and in the overburden beneath the tailings has not been affected. A geochemical investigation was initiated to determine how the leachate behaves in the groundwater/tailings porewater system. Over the past 7 years of residue placement in the TMA, the footprint of the residue placement area has changed, making the comparison of predicted versus actual rate of leachate migration very subjective and difficult to quantify. Based solely on the analytical data, the source of the leachate is unknown, either from the original residue pile or the 2007 residue placement area. For purposes of long term residue management, an investigation of the geochemical behaviour of residue leachate in the groundwater/tailings system of the TMA is currently underway. 5 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs.

  20. Predicting fuel poverty at a small-area level in England

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fahmy, Eldin; Gordon, David; Patsios, Demi

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the development of a series of models for predicting the incidence of fuel poverty in England at a small-area level and examines the adequacy of the modelled results in informing our understanding of the geography of fuel poverty. This paper summarises the development of alternative approaches to model specification based upon different approaches to the treatment of household income. Since 2003 small-area fuel poverty estimates have been widely used to inform affordable warmth policies and local targeting of fuel poverty programs. Whilst improvements in data sources and methods in recent years provide an opportunity to better understand the spatial distribution of fuel poverty, these analyses suggest that our understanding of the incidence and spatial distribution of fuel poverty is highly sensitive to the way in which household incomes are measured. - Highlights: → The proposed models estimate fuel poverty incidence at a small-area level. → This is necessary in order to accurately target local fuel poverty interventions. → Fuel poverty estimates are highly sensitive to differences in income measurement. → Fewer children and more pensioners are fuel poor using EHCS income measures. → More children and fewer pensioners are fuel poor using HBAI income measures.

  1. MLP based models to predict PM10, O3 concentrations, in Sines industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durao, R.; Pereira, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    Sines is an important Portuguese industrial area located southwest cost of Portugal with important nearby protected natural areas. The main economical activities are related with this industrial area, the deep-water port, petrochemical and thermo-electric industry. Nevertheless, tourism is also an important economic activity especially in summer time with potential to grow. The aim of this study is to develop prediction models of pollutant concentration categories (e.g. low concentration and high concentration) in order to provide early warnings to the competent authorities who are responsible for the air quality management. The knowledge in advanced of pollutant high concentrations occurrence will allow the implementation of mitigation actions and the release of precautionary alerts to population. The regional air quality monitoring network consists in three monitoring stations where a set of pollutants' concentrations are registered on a continuous basis. From this set stands out the tropospheric ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) due to the high concentrations occurring in the region and their adverse effects on human health. Moreover, the major industrial plants of the region monitor SO2, NO2 and particles emitted flows at the principal chimneys (point sources), also on a continuous basis,. Therefore Artificial neuronal networks (ANN) were the applied methodology to predict next day pollutant concentrations; due to the ANNs structure they have the ability to capture the non-linear relationships between predictor variables. Hence the first step of this study was to apply multivariate exploratory techniques to select the best predictor variables. The classification trees methodology (CART) was revealed to be the most appropriate in this case.. Results shown that pollutants atmospheric concentrations are mainly dependent on industrial emissions and a complex combination of meteorological factors and the time of the year. In the second step, the Multi

  2. Visceral fat area predicts survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nault, Jean-Charles; Pigneur, Frédéric; Nelson, Anaïs Charles; Costentin, Charlotte; Tselikas, Lambros; Katsahian, Sandrine; Diao, Guoqing; Laurent, Alexis; Mallat, Ariane; Duvoux, Christophe; Luciani, Alain; Decaens, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Anthropometric measurements have been linked to resistance to anti-angiogenic treatment and survival. Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib or brivanib in 2008-2011 were included in this retrospective study. Anthropometric measurements were assessed using computed tomography and were correlated with drug toxicity, radiological response, and overall survival. 52 patients were included, Barcelona Clinic Liver Classification B (38%) and C (62%), with a mean value of α-fetoprotein of 29,554±85,654 ng/mL, with a median overall survival of 10.5 months. Sarcopenia was associated with a greater rate of hand-foot syndrome (P=0.049). Modified Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (mRECIST) and Choi criteria were significantly associated with survival, but RECIST criteria were not. An absence of hand-foot syndrome and high-visceral fat area were associated with progressive disease as assessed by RECIST and mRECIST criteria. In multivariate analyses, high visceral fat area (HR=3.6; P=0.002), low lean body mass (HR=2.4; P=0.015), and presence of hand-foot syndrome (HR=1.8; P=0.004) were significantly associated with overall survival. In time-dependent multivariate analyses; only high visceral fat area was associated with survival. Visceral fat area is associated with survival and seems to be a predictive marker for primary resistance to tyrosine kinase inhibitors in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Right Brodmann area 18 predicts tremor arrest after Vim radiosurgery: a voxel-based morphometry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuleasca, Constantin; Witjas, Tatiana; Van de Ville, Dimitri; Najdenovska, Elena; Verger, Antoine; Girard, Nadine; Champoudry, Jerome; Thiran, Jean-Philippe; Cuadra, Meritxell Bach; Levivier, Marc; Guedj, Eric; Régis, Jean

    2018-03-01

    Drug-resistant essential tremor (ET) can benefit from open standard stereotactic procedures, such as deep-brain stimulation or radiofrequency thalamotomy. Non-surgical candidates can be offered either high-focused ultrasound (HIFU) or radiosurgery (RS). All procedures aim to target the same thalamic site, the ventro-intermediate nucleus (e.g., Vim). The mechanisms by which tremor stops after Vim RS or HIFU remain unknown. We used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) on pretherapeutic neuroimaging data and assessed which anatomical site would best correlate with tremor arrest 1 year after Vim RS. Fifty-two patients (30 male, 22 female; mean age 71.6 years, range 49-82) with right-sided ET benefited from left unilateral Vim RS in Marseille, France. Targeting was performed in a uniform manner, using 130 Gy and a single 4-mm collimator. Neurological (pretherapeutic and 1 year after) and neuroimaging (baseline) assessments were completed. Tremor score on the treated hand (TSTH) at 1 year after Vim RS was included in a statistical parametric mapping analysis of variance (ANOVA) model as a continuous variable with pretherapeutic neuroimaging data. Pretherapeutic gray matter density (GMD) was further correlated with TSTH improvement. No a priori hypothesis was used in the statistical model. The only statistically significant region was right Brodmann area (BA) 18 (visual association area V2, p = 0.05, cluster size K c  = 71). Higher baseline GMD correlated with better TSTH improvement at 1 year after Vim RS (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient = 0.002). Routine baseline structural neuroimaging predicts TSTH improvement 1 year after Vim RS. The relevant anatomical area is the right visual association cortex (BA 18, V2). The question whether visual areas should be included in the targeting remains open.

  4. Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ielsch, G.

    2001-01-01

    Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

  5. Cervical gland area as an ultrasound marker for prediction of preterm delivery: A cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vajiheh Marsoosi

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Preterm labor is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality and it might be predicted by assessing the cervical change. Objective: To assess the association between absence of cervical gland area (CGA and spontaneous preterm labor (SPTL. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was performed on 200 singleton pregnant women with a history of SPTL, second-trimester abortion in the previous pregnancy or lower abdominal pain in current pregnancy. Each patient underwent one transvaginal ultrasound examination between 14-28 wk of gestation. Cervical length was measured and CGA was identified and their relationship with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation was evaluated using STATA software version 10. Results: The mean of cervical length was 36.5 mm (SD=8.4, the shortest measurement was 9 mm, and the longest one was 61 mm. Short cervical length (≤18mm was significantly associated with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation. Cervical gland area (the hypoechogenic or echogenic area around the cervical canal was present in 189 (94.5% patients. Absent of CGA had a significant relationship with SPTL before 35 and 37 wk gestation (p=0.01 and p<0.001, respectively. Cervical length was shorter in women with absent CGA in comparison with subjects with present CGA: 37±10 mm in CGA present group and 23±9 mm in CGA absent group (p<0.001. Conclusion: Our study showed that cervical gland area might be an important predictor of SPTL which should be confirmed with further researches.

  6. Broca's region and Visual Word Form Area activation differ during a predictive Stroop task

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wallentin, Mikkel; Gravholt, Claus Højbjerg; Skakkebæk, Anne

    2015-01-01

    displayed in green or red (incongruent vs congruent colors). One of the colors, however, was presented three times as often as the other, making it possible to study both congruency and frequency effects independently. Auditory stimuli saying “GREEN” or “RED” had the same distribution, making it possible...... to study frequency effects across modalities. We found significant behavioral effects of both incongruency and frequency. A significant effect (p effect of frequency was observed and no interaction. Conjoined effects of incongruency...... and frequency were found in parietal regions as well as in the Visual Word Form Area (VWFA). No interaction between perceptual modality and frequency was found in VWFA suggesting that the region is not strictly visual. These findings speak against a strong version of the prediction error processing hypothesis...

  7. NOAA ESRI Grid - seafloor hardbottom occurrence predictions model in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents hard bottom occurrence predictions from a spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This model builds upon the...

  8. NOAA ESRI Grid - depth uncertainty predictions in New York offshore planning area from Biogeography Branch bathymetry model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents depth uncertainty predictions from a bathymetric model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also includes...

  9. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird diversity in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird diversity predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived from...

  10. TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IN 3013 CONTAINERS IN K AREA MATERIAL STORAGE (KAMS) FACILITY USING REGRESSION METHODS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, N

    2008-01-01

    3013 containers are designed in accordance with the DOE-STD-3013-2004. These containers are qualified to store plutonium (Pu) bearing materials such as PuO2 for 50 years. DOT shipping packages such as the 9975 are used to store the 3013 containers in the K-Area Material Storage (KAMS) facility at Savannah River Site (SRS). DOE-STD-3013-2004 requires that a comprehensive surveillance program be set up to ensure that the 3013 container design parameters are not violated during the long term storage. To ensure structural integrity of the 3013 containers, thermal analyses using finite element models were performed to predict the contents and component temperatures for different but well defined parameters such as storage ambient temperature, PuO 2 density, fill heights, weights, and thermal loading. Interpolation is normally used to calculate temperatures if the actual parameter values are different from the analyzed values. A statistical analysis technique using regression methods is proposed to develop simple polynomial relations to predict temperatures for the actual parameter values found in the containers. The analysis shows that regression analysis is a powerful tool to develop simple relations to assess component temperatures

  11. Using ANN and EPR models to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in urban area of Tabriz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Shakerkhatibi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Forecasting of air pollutants has become a popular topic of environmental research today. For this purpose, the artificial neural network (AAN technique is widely used as a reliable method for forecasting air pollutants in urban areas. On the other hand, the evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR model has recently been used as a forecasting tool in some environmental issues. In this research, we compared the ability of these models to forecast carbon monoxide (CO concentrations in the urban area of Tabriz city. Methods: The dataset of CO concentrations measured at the fixed stations operated by the East Azerbaijan Environmental Office along with meteorological data obtained from the East Azerbaijan Meteorological Bureau from March 2007 to March 2013, were used as input for the ANN and EPR models. Results: Based on the results, the performance of ANN is more reliable in comparison with EPR. Using the ANN model, the correlation coefficient values at all monitoring stations were calculated above 0.85. Conversely, the R2 values for these stations were obtained <0.41 using the EPR model. Conclusion: The EPR model could not overcome the nonlinearities of input data. However, the ANN model displayed more accurate results compared to the EPR. Hence, the ANN models are robust tools for predicting air pollutant concentrations.

  12. Indoor Radon Concentration Related to Different Radon Areas and Indoor Radon Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhásová Šenitková, Ingrid; Šál, Jiří

    2017-12-01

    Indoor radon has been observed in the buildings at areas with different radon risk potential. Preventive measures are based on control of main potential radon sources (soil gas, building material and supplied water) to avoid building of new houses above recommended indoor radon level 200 Bq/m3. Radon risk (index) estimation of individual building site bedrock in case of new house siting and building protection according technical building code are obligatory. Remedial actions in buildings built at high radon risk areas were carried out principally by unforced ventilation and anti-radon insulation. Significant differences were found in the level of radon concentration between rooms where radon reduction techniques were designed and those where it was not designed. The mathematical model based on radon exhalation from soil has been developed to describe the physical processes determining indoor radon concentration. The model is focused on combined radon diffusion through the slab and advection through the gap from sub-slab soil. In this model, radon emanated from building materials is considered not having a significant contribution to indoor radon concentration. Dimensional analysis and Gauss-Newton nonlinear least squares parametric regression were used to simplify the problem, identify essential input variables and find parameter values. The presented verification case study is introduced for real buildings with respect to various underground construction types. Presented paper gives picture of possible mathematical approach to indoor radon concentration prediction.

  13. Identification and Prediction of Large Pedestrian Flow in Urban Areas Based on a Hybrid Detection Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaisheng Zhang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, population density has grown quickly with the increasing acceleration of urbanization. At the same time, overcrowded situations are more likely to occur in populous urban areas, increasing the risk of accidents. This paper proposes a synthetic approach to recognize and identify the large pedestrian flow. In particular, a hybrid pedestrian flow detection model was constructed by analyzing real data from major mobile phone operators in China, including information from smartphones and base stations (BS. With the hybrid model, the Log Distance Path Loss (LDPL model was used to estimate the pedestrian density from raw network data, and retrieve information with the Gaussian Progress (GP through supervised learning. Temporal-spatial prediction of the pedestrian data was carried out with Machine Learning (ML approaches. Finally, a case study of a real Central Business District (CBD scenario in Shanghai, China using records of millions of cell phone users was conducted. The results showed that the new approach significantly increases the utility and capacity of the mobile network. A more reasonable overcrowding detection and alert system can be developed to improve safety in subway lines and other hotspot landmark areas, such as the Bundle, People’s Square or Disneyland, where a large passenger flow generally exists.

  14. Optimal recall from bounded metaplastic synapses: predicting functional adaptations in hippocampal area CA3.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Savin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A venerable history of classical work on autoassociative memory has significantly shaped our understanding of several features of the hippocampus, and most prominently of its CA3 area, in relation to memory storage and retrieval. However, existing theories of hippocampal memory processing ignore a key biological constraint affecting memory storage in neural circuits: the bounded dynamical range of synapses. Recent treatments based on the notion of metaplasticity provide a powerful model for individual bounded synapses; however, their implications for the ability of the hippocampus to retrieve memories well and the dynamics of neurons associated with that retrieval are both unknown. Here, we develop a theoretical framework for memory storage and recall with bounded synapses. We formulate the recall of a previously stored pattern from a noisy recall cue and limited-capacity (and therefore lossy synapses as a probabilistic inference problem, and derive neural dynamics that implement approximate inference algorithms to solve this problem efficiently. In particular, for binary synapses with metaplastic states, we demonstrate for the first time that memories can be efficiently read out with biologically plausible network dynamics that are completely constrained by the synaptic plasticity rule, and the statistics of the stored patterns and of the recall cue. Our theory organises into a coherent framework a wide range of existing data about the regulation of excitability, feedback inhibition, and network oscillations in area CA3, and makes novel and directly testable predictions that can guide future experiments.

  15. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Sato, H.; Koketsu, K.; Umeda, Y.; Iwata, T.; Kasahara, K.

    2003-12-01

    Introduction: After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Japanese government increased its focus and funding of earthquake hazards evaluation, studies of man-made structures integrity, and emergency response planning in the major urban centers. A new agency, the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture (MEXT) has started a five-year program titled as Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Urban Areas (abbreviated to Dai-dai-toku in Japanese) since 2002. The project includes four programs: I. Regional characterization of the crust in metropolitan areas for prediction of strong ground motion. II. Significant improvement of seismic performance of structure. III. Advanced disaster management system. IV. Investigation of earthquake disaster mitigation research results. We will present the results from the first program conducted in 2002 and 2003. Regional Characterization of the Crust in Metropolitan Areas for Prediction of Strong Ground Motion: A long-term goal is to produce map of reliable estimations of strong ground motion. This requires accurate determination of ground motion response, which includes a source process, an effect of propagation path, and near surface response. The new five-year project was aimed to characterize the "source" and "propagation path" in the Kanto (Tokyo) region and Kinki (Osaka) region. The 1923 Kanto Earthquake is one of the important targets to be addressed in the project. The proximity of the Pacific and Philippine Sea subducting plates requires study of the relationship between earthquakes and regional tectonics. This project focuses on identification and geometry of: 1) Source faults, 2) Subducting plates and mega-thrust faults, 3) Crustal structure, 4) Seismogenic zone, 5) Sedimentary basins, 6) 3D velocity properties We have conducted a series of seismic reflection and refraction experiment in the Kanto region. In 2002 we have completed to deploy seismic profiling lines in the Boso peninsula (112 km) and the

  16. Axial and transverse stress-strain characterization of the EU dipole high current density Nb{sub 3}Sn strand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nijhuis, A; Ilyin, Y; Abbas, W [Faculty of Science and Technology, Low Temperature Division, University of Twente, PO Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands)], E-mail: a.nijhuis@tnw.utwente.nl

    2008-06-15

    We have measured the critical current (I{sub c}) of a high current density Nb{sub 3}Sn strand subjected to spatial periodic bending, periodic contact stress and uniaxial strain. The strand is destined for the cable-in-conduit conductors (CICC) of the European dipole (EDIPO) 12.5 T superconducting magnet test facility. The spatial periodic bending was applied on the strand, using the bending wavelengths from 5 to 10 mm with a peak bending strain of 1.5%, a periodic contact stress with a periodicity of 4.7 mm and a stress level exceeding 250 MPa. For the uniaxial strain characterization, the voltage-current characteristics were measured with an applied axial strain from -0.9% to +0.3%, with a magnetic field from 6 to 14 T, temperature from 4.2 to 10 K and currents up to almost 900 A. In addition the axial stiffness was determined by a tensile axial stress-strain test. The characterization of the strand is essential for understanding the behaviour of the strand under mainly axial thermal stress variation during cool down and transverse electromagnetic forces during charging, which is essential for the design of the CICC for the dipole magnet. The strand appears to be fully reversible in the compressive regime during the axial strain testing, while in the tensile regime, the behaviour is already irreversibly degraded when reaching the maximum in the critical current versus strain characteristic. The degradation is accentuated by an immediate decrease of the n value by a factor of 2. The parameters for the improved deviatoric strain description are derived from the I{sub c} data, giving the accuracy of the scaling with a standard deviation of 4 A, which is by far within the expected deviation for the large scale strand production of such a high J{sub c} strand. The I{sub c} versus the applied bending strain follows the low resistivity limit, indicative of full interfilament current transfer, while a strong decrease is observed at a peak bending strain of {approx}0

  17. EXPERIMENTAL AND THEORETICAL STUDIES OF THE STRESS-STRAIN STATE OF WOOD-CONCRETE AND WOOD-GYPSUM MASONRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Likhacheva Svetlana Yur'evna

    2012-12-01

    The findings of the prototype testing include identification of the two areas of deformations: areas of elastic deformations and areas of intensive development of deformations. The first area of partial elastic deformations is characterized by the linear stress function, while the second area demonstrates that this relationship is nonlinear. Permanent deformations appear as of the startup of the loading process and disproportionate stress is demonstrated throughout the deformation process. However, in the first area (partial elastic deformations residual deformations are so small that this area is considered as the area of "the area of incomplete elasticity".

  18. Mathematical Model of Stress-Strain State of Curved Tube of Non-Circular Cross-Section with Account of Technological Wall Thickness Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirogov, S. P.; Ustinov, N. N.; Smolin, N. I.

    2018-05-01

    A mathematical model of the stress-strain state of a curved tube of a non-circular cross-section is presented, taking into account the technological wall thickness variation. On the basis of the semi-membrane shell theory, a system of linear differential equations describing the deformation of a tube under the effect of pressure is obtained. To solve the boundary value problem, the method of shooting is applied. The adequacy of the proposed mathematical model is verified by comparison with the experimental data and the results of the calculation of tubes by the energy method.

  19. Neutron diffraction investigation of hysteresis reduction and increase in linearity in the stress-strain response of superelastic NiTi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rathod, C.R.; Clausen, B.; Bourke, M.A.M.; Vaidyanathan, R.

    2006-01-01

    In situ neutron diffraction measurements during loading have been performed on plastically deformed superelastic NiTi samples. The measurements observed retained B19 ' phase in the unloaded state as a result of the plastic deformation in otherwise completely B2 phase samples. A reversible stress-induced B2-B19 ' transformation on application and removal of stress occurred in the presence of this retained B19 ' phase. The amount and orientation of this retained B19 ' phase changed with cycling. Such direct atomic scale observations in the bulk are used here for the first time to qualitatively elucidate the macroscopic stress-strain response in plastically deformed superelastic NiTi

  20. Predicted high-water elevations for selected flood events at the Albert Pike Recreation Area, Ouachita National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.A. Marion

    2012-01-01

    The hydraulic characteristics are determined for the June 11, 2010, flood on the Little Missouri River at the Albert Pike Recreation Area in Arkansas. These characteristics are then used to predict the high-water elevations for the 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood events in the Loop B, C, and D Campgrounds of the recreation area. The peak discharge and related...

  1. Family differences in equations for predicting biomass and leaf area in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii).

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.B. St. Clair

    1993-01-01

    Logarithmic regression equations were developed to predict component biomass and leaf area for an 18-yr-old genetic test of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco var. menziesii) based on stem diameter or cross-sectional sapwood area. Equations did not differ among open-pollinated families in slope, but intercepts...

  2. Predicting forested catchment evapotranspiration and streamflow from stand sapwood area and Aridity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lane, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    hillslope scale using mappable attributes (AI, forest inventory data). Advances in forest inventory techniques, including LiDAR, mean stand attributes can increasingly be mapped over large areas. If combined with process measurements, these mapped attributes provide a powerful platform for simple but robust modelling at the sub-hillslope scale, including exploring hinge points of stand vulnerability to the drier, hotter climate predicted for SE Australia where energy limited systems may face water limitation.

  3. A Geometrical-based Vertical Gain Correction for Signal Strength Prediction of Downtilted Base Station Antennas in Urban Areas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2012-01-01

    -based extension to standard empirical path loss prediction models can give quite reasonable accuracy in predicting the signal strength from tilted base station antennas in small urban macro-cells. Our evaluation is based on measurements on several sectors in a 2.6 GHz Long Term Evolution (LTE) cellular network......, with electrical antenna downtilt in the range from 0 to 10 degrees, as well as predictions based on ray-tracing and 3D building databases covering the measurement area. Although the calibrated ray-tracing predictions are highly accurate compared with the measured data, the combined LOS/NLOS COST-WI model...

  4. Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yinghui; Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

    2017-10-27

    The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter "Reservoir Area"). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

  5. Testing and intercomparison of model predictions of radionuclide migration from a hypothetical area source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, R.S.; Yu, C.; Zeevaert, T.; Olyslaegers, G.; Amado, V.; Setlow, L.W.; Waggitt, P.W.

    2008-01-01

    This work was carried out as part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS program. One aim of the work was to develop scenarios for testing computer models designed for simulating radionuclide migration in the environment, and to use these scenarios for testing the models and comparing predictions from different models. This paper presents the results of the development and testing of a hypothetical area source of NORM waste/residue using two complex computer models and one screening model. There are significant differences in the methods used to model groundwater flow between the complex models. The hypothetical source was used because of its relative simplicity and because of difficulties encountered in finding comprehensive, well-validated data sets for real sites. The source consisted of a simple repository of uniform thickness, with 1 Bq g -1 of uranium-238 ( 238 U) (in secular equilibrium with its decay products) distributed uniformly throughout the waste. These approximate real situations, such as engineered repositories, waste rock piles, tailings piles and landfills. Specification of the site also included the physical layout, vertical stratigraphic details, soil type for each layer of material, precipitation and runoff details, groundwater flow parameters, and meteorological data. Calculations were carried out with and without a cover layer of clean soil above the waste, for people working and living at different locations relative to the waste. The predictions of the two complex models showed several differences which need more detailed examination. The scenario is available for testing by other modelers. It can also be used as a planning tool for remediation work or for repository design, by changing the scenario parameters and running the models for a range of different inputs. Further development will include applying models to real scenarios and integrating environmental impact assessment methods with the safety assessment tools currently

  6. Predictability and Spatial Characteristics of New-York-City-Area Heat Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, C.; Horton, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    The origins, characteristics, and predictability of extreme heat waves in the Northeast U.S. are simultaneously examined at multiple scales, using hourly observational data from 1948-2014 and focusing in particular on the region surrounding New York City. A novel definition of heat waves - incorporating both temperature and moisture at hourly resolution - is used to identify 3-to-5-day heat waves whose dynamics are then analyzed from 3 weeks prior to 3 weeks subsequent to the event. Inter-event differences in dynamics such as the strength and position of geopotential-height anomalies; the strength, persistence, and orientation of sea breezes; and the dominant 850-hPa wind azimuth, all of which are filtered via local terrain and land-use to create differences in conditions between events at specific locations. In particular, using composite maps and back trajectories, they are found to play an important role in creating mesoscale differences in low-level moisture content, from one side of the metropolitan area to the other. Evidence is presented supporting the influence of coastline orientation in explaining the differences in the relationships between wind azimuth and temperature & moisture advection between New York City proper and northern New Jersey. Self-organizing maps are employed to classify heat waves based on the small-scale differences in temperature and moisture between events, and the results of this classification are then used in correlations with synoptic- and hemispheric-scale geopotential-height anomalies. Considerable predictability of event type on the small-scale (as well as occurrence of a heat wave of any kind) is found, originating primarily from central Pacific and western Atlantic SSTs.

  7. Regional-scale Predictions of Agricultural N Losses in an Area with a High Livestock Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlo Grignani

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The quantification of the N losses in territories characterised by intensive animal stocking is of primary importance. The development of simulation models coupled to a GIS, or of simple environmental indicators, is strategic to suggest the best specific management practices. The aims of this work were: a to couple a GIS to a simulation model in order to predict N losses; b to estimate leaching and gaseous N losses from a territory with intensive livestock farming; c to derive a simplified empirical metamodel from the model output that could be used to rank the relative importance of the variables which influence N losses and to extend the results to homogeneous situations. The work was carried out in a 7773 ha area in the Western Po plain in Italy. This area was chosen because it is characterised by intensive animal husbandry and might soon be included in the nitrate vulnerable zones. The high N load, the shallow water table and the coarse type of sub-soil sediments contribute to the vulnerability to N leaching. A CropSyst simulation model was coupled to a GIS, to account for the soil surface N budget. A linear multiple regression approach was used to describe the influence of a series of independent variables on the N leaching, the N gaseous losses (including volatilisation and denitrification and on the sum of the two. Despite the fact that the available GIS was very detailed, a great deal of information necessary to run the model was lacking. Further soil measurements concerning soil hydrology, soil nitrate content and water table depth proved very valuable to integrate the data contained in the GIS in order to produce reliable input for the model. The results showed that the soils influence both the quantity and the pathways of the N losses to a great extent. The ratio between the N losses and the N supplied varied between 20 and 38%. The metamodel shows that manure input always played the most important role in determining the N losses

  8. Regional-scale Predictions of Agricultural N Losses in an Area with a High Livestock Density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Sacco

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantification of the N losses in territories characterised by intensive animal stocking is of primary importance. The development of simulation models coupled to a GIS, or of simple environmental indicators, is strategic to suggest the best specific management practices. The aims of this work were: a to couple a GIS to a simulation model in order to predict N losses; b to estimate leaching and gaseous N losses from a territory with intensive livestock farming; c to derive a simplified empirical metamodel from the model output that could be used to rank the relative importance of the variables which influence N losses and to extend the results to homogeneous situations. The work was carried out in a 7773 ha area in the Western Po plain in Italy. This area was chosen because it is characterised by intensive animal husbandry and might soon be included in the nitrate vulnerable zones. The high N load, the shallow water table and the coarse type of sub-soil sediments contribute to the vulnerability to N leaching. A CropSyst simulation model was coupled to a GIS, to account for the soil surface N budget. A linear multiple regression approach was used to describe the influence of a series of independent variables on the N leaching, the N gaseous losses (including volatilisation and denitrification and on the sum of the two. Despite the fact that the available GIS was very detailed, a great deal of information necessary to run the model was lacking. Further soil measurements concerning soil hydrology, soil nitrate content and water table depth proved very valuable to integrate the data contained in the GIS in order to produce reliable input for the model. The results showed that the soils influence both the quantity and the pathways of the N losses to a great extent. The ratio between the N losses and the N supplied varied between 20 and 38%. The metamodel shows that manure input always played the most important role in determining the N losses

  9. Cyclic stress-strain behavior of polymeric nonwoven structures for the use as artificial leaflet material for transcatheter heart valve prostheses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arbeiter Daniela

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Xenogenic leaflet material, bovine and porcine pericardium, is widely used for the fabrication of surgically implanted and transcatheter heart valve prostheses. As a biological material, long term durability of pericardium is limited due to calcification, degeneration and homogeneity. Therefore, polymeric materials represent a promising approach for a next generation of artificial heart valve leaflets with improved durability. Within the current study we analyzed the mechanical performance of polymeric structures based on elastomeric materials. Polymeric cast films were prepared and nonwovens were manufactured in an electrospinning process. Analysis of cyclic stress-strain behavior was performed, using a universal testing machine. The uniaxial cyclic tensile experiments of the elastomeric samples yielded a non-linear elastic response due to viscoelastic behavior with hysteresis. Equilibrium of stress-strain curves was found after a specific number of cycles, for cast films and nonwovens, respectively. In conclusion, preconditioning was found obligatory for the evaluation of the mechanical performance of polymeric materials for the use as artificial leaflet material for heart valve prostheses.

  10. Is this car looking at you? How anthropomorphism predicts fusiform face area activation when seeing cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, Simone; Brick, Timothy R; Müller, Barbara C N; Gallinat, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Anthropomorphism encompasses the attribution of human characteristics to non-living objects. In particular the human tendency to see faces in cars has long been noticed, yet its neural correlates are unknown. We set out to investigate whether the fusiform face area (FFA) is associated with seeing human features in car fronts, or whether, the higher-level theory of mind network (ToM), namely temporoparietal junction (TPJ) and medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) show a link to anthropomorphism. Twenty participants underwent fMRI scanning during a passive car-front viewing task. We extracted brain activity from FFA, TPJ and MPFC. After the fMRI session participants were asked to spontaneously list adjectives that characterize each car front. Five raters judged the degree to which each adjective can be applied as a characteristic of human beings. By means of linear mixed models we found that the implicit tendency to anthropomorphize individual car fronts predicts FFA, but not TPJ or MPFC activity. The results point to an important role of FFA in the phenomenon of ascribing human attributes to non-living objects. Interestingly, brain regions that have been associated with thinking about beliefs and mental states of others (TPJ, MPFC) do not seem to be related to anthropomorphism of car fronts.

  11. Development of a software for predicting the effects of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Lijuan; Chen Bo; Zhuo Weihai; Lu Shuyu

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To develop a new software system that can directly display the predicted results on an electronic map, in order to get a directly perceived understanding of the affected areas of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas. Methods: Three scenarios of events including spreading radioactive materials, dirty bomb attack, and explosion or arson attacks on the radiation facilities were assumed. Gaussian diffusion model was employed to predict the spread and deposition of radioactive pollutants, and both the internal and external doses were estimated for the representative person by using the corresponding dose conversion factors. Through integration of the computing system and Mapinfo geographic information system (GIS), the predicted results were visually displayed on the electronic maps of a city. Results: The new software system could visually display the predicted results on the electronic map of a city, and the predicted results were consistent with those calculated by the similar software Hotspot®. The deviation between this system and Hotspot was less than 0.2 km for predicted isoplethic curves of dose rate downwind. Conclusions: The newly developed software system is of the practical value in predicting the effects of nuclear and radiological terrorism events in city areas. (authors)

  12. Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinghui Li

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”. However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1 model, and build a new GM (1,1 model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1 model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

  13. Water Pollution Prediction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and Countermeasures for Sustainable Development of the Water Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shuaijin; Qu, Xuexin

    2017-01-01

    The Three Gorges Project was implemented in 1994 to promote sustainable water resource use and development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (hereafter “Reservoir Area”). However, massive discharge of wastewater along the river threatens these goals; therefore, this study employs a grey prediction model (GM) to predict the annual emissions of primary pollution sources, including industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, and oily and domestic wastewater from ships, that influence the Three Gorges Reservoir Area water environment. First, we optimize the initial values of a traditional GM (1,1) model, and build a new GM (1,1) model that minimizes the sum of squares of the relative simulation errors. Second, we use the new GM (1,1) model to simulate historical annual emissions data for the four pollution sources and thereby test the effectiveness of the model. Third, we predict the annual emissions of the four pollution sources in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area for a future period. The prediction results reveal the annual emission trends for the major wastewater types, and indicate the primary sources of water pollution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Based on our predictions, we suggest several countermeasures against water pollution and towards the sustainable development of the water environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. PMID:29077006

  14. Limited Area Predictability: Is There A Limit To The Operational Usefulness of A Lam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesinger, F.

    The issue of the limited area predictability in the context of the operational experience of the Eta Model, driven by the LBCs of the NCEP global spectral (Avn) model, is examined. The traditional view is that "the contamination at the lateral boundaries ... limits the operational usefulness of the LAM beyond some forecast time range". In the case of the Eta this contamination consists not only of the lower resolution of the Avn LBCs and the much discussed mathematical "lateral boundary error", but also of the use of the LBCs of the previous Avn run, at 0000 and 1200 UTC estimated to amount to about an 8 h loss in accuracy. Looking for the signs of the Eta accuracy in relative terms falling behind that of the Avn we have examined the trend of the Eta vs Avn precipitation scores, the rms fits to raobs of the two models as a function of time, and the errors of these models at extended forecast times in placing the centers of major lows. In none of these efforts, some including forecasts out to 84 h, we were able to notice signs of the Eta accuracy being visibly affected by the inflow of the lateral boundary errors. It is therefore hypothesized that some of the Eta design features compensate for the increasing influence of the Avn LBC errors. Candidate features are discussed, with the eta coordinate being a contender to play a major role. This situation being possible for the pair of models discussed, existence of a general limit for the operational usefulness of a LAM seems questionable.

  15. Extensions of Island Biogeography Theory predict the scaling of functional trait composition with habitat area and isolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Claire; Mouillot, David; Kulbicki, Michel; Gravel, Dominique

    2017-02-01

    The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species-area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body-size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large-sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body-size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  16. Prediction of inelastic behavior and creep-fatigue life of perforated plates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igari, Toshihide; Yamauchi, Masafumi; Nomura, Shinichi.

    1992-01-01

    Prediction methods of macroscopic and local stress-strain behaviors of perforated plates in plastic and creep regime are proposed in this paper, and are applied to the creep-fatigue life prediction of perforated plates. Both equivalent-solid-plate properties corresponding to the macroscopic behavior and the stress-strain concentration around a hole were obtained by assuming the analogy between plasticity and creep and also by extending the authors' proposal in creep condition. The perforated plates which were made of Hastelloy XR were subjected to the strain-controlled cyclic test at 950degC in air in order to experimentally obtain the macroscopic behavior such as the cyclic stress-strain curve and creep-fatigue life around a hole. The results obtained are summarized as follows. (1) The macroscopic behavior of perforated plates including cyclic stress-strain behavior and relaxation is predictable by using the proposed method in this paper. (2) The creep-fatigue life around a hole can be predicted by using the proposed method for stress-strain concentration around a hole. (author)

  17. Limited Sampling Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Statins: Reliability of a Single Time Point for AUC Prediction for Pravastatin and Simvastatin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, N R

    2016-02-01

    Statins are widely prescribed medicines and are also available in fixed dose combinations with other drugs to treat several chronic ailments. Given the safety issues associated with statins it may be important to assess feasibility of a single time concentration strategy for prediction of exposure (area under the curve; AUC). The peak concentration (Cmax) was used to establish relationship with AUC separately for pravastatin and simvastatin using published pharmacokinetic data. The regression equations generated for statins were used to predict the AUC values from various literature references. The fold difference of the observed divided by predicted values along with correlation coefficient (r) were used to judge the feasibility of the single time point approach. Both pravastatin and simvastatin showed excellent correlation of Cmax vs. AUC values with r value ≥ 0.9638 (pAUC predictions and >81% of the predicted values were in a narrower range of >0.75-fold but AUC values showed excellent correlation for pravastatin (r=0.9708, n=115; pAUC predictions. On the basis of the present work, it is feasible to develop a single concentration time point strategy that coincides with Cmax occurrence for both pravastatin and simvastatin from a therapeutic drug monitoring perspective. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  18. Allometric relationships predicting foliar biomass and leaf area:sapwood area ratio from tree height in five Costa Rican rain forest species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvo-Alvarado, J C; McDowell, N G; Waring, R H

    2008-11-01

    We developed allometric equations to predict whole-tree leaf area (A(l)), leaf biomass (M(l)) and leaf area to sapwood area ratio (A(l):A(s)) in five rain forest tree species of Costa Rica: Pentaclethra macroloba (Willd.) Kuntze (Fabaceae/Mim), Carapa guianensis Aubl. (Meliaceae), Vochysia ferru-gi-nea Mart. (Vochysiaceae), Virola koshnii Warb. (Myristicaceae) and Tetragastris panamensis (Engl.) Kuntze (Burseraceae). By destructive analyses (n = 11-14 trees per species), we observed strong nonlinear allometric relationships (r(2) > or = 0.9) for predicting A(l) or M(l) from stem diameters or A(s) measured at breast height. Linear relationships were less accurate. In general, A(l):A(s) at breast height increased linearly with tree height except for Penta-clethra, which showed a negative trend. All species, however, showed increased total A(l) with height. The observation that four of the five species increased in A(l):A(s) with height is consistent with hypotheses about trade--offs between morphological and anatomical adaptations that favor efficient water flow through variation in the amount of leaf area supported by sapwood and those imposed by the need to respond quickly to light gaps in the canopy.

  19. EVALUATION AND PREDICTIVE METHODS OF EPIDEMICAL SITUATION IN THE AREA OF ACUTE ENTERIC INFECTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malysh N.G.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Despite the fact, that nowadays acute intestinal infections (AII sick rate is decreasing, the aggravation of the epidemical situation is always there. Increased attention to AII caused by unpredictable epidemical rises of the AII diseases, which cannot be prevented without assessing the epidemical situation of these infections and forecasting of the levels of sick rate. However, developed mathematical methods of forecasting in most cases do not take into account the risk factors, also they are time-consuming and it is difficult to calculate them; and developed special computer programs, which predict infectious sick rates, are often in the lack in the institutions of sanitary-epidemiological service. An urgent problem for today is establishing of the most influential social and environmental factors, which can make a contribution to the spread of AII. The aim of this work was to improve the method of assessment and prediction of epidemic situation of AII by identifying the influence of climatic and demographic factors. Materials and methods. In order to determine the influence of meteorological and demographic factors on the epidemic process of acute intestinal infections the official reports of the State Sanitary and Epidemiological Service of Ukraine in Sumy region, the Department of Statistics, Sumy Regional Center for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring have been studied. Results and discussion. The work on the evaluation of the epidemiological situation of the AII begins from collecting data, according to the AII sick rate. The main source of this information is the logbook of infectious diseases, which recorded all sick people that were found in the area. It is necessary to gather the initial information, calculate the sick rate and monthly distribution of AII cases on investigated area and evaluate the tendency. At the same time with accounting of AII cases on investigated territory, takes place a monitoring of air

  20. Using small area estimation and Lidar-derived variables for multivariate prediction of forest attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Mauro; Vicente Monleon; H. Temesgen

    2015-01-01

    Small area estimation (SAE) techniques have been successfully applied in forest inventories to provide reliable estimates for domains where the sample size is small (i.e. small areas). Previous studies have explored the use of either Area Level or Unit Level Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictors (EBLUPs) in a univariate framework, modeling each variable of interest...

  1. Evaluation of anisotropic effective stress-strain criteria for the biaxial yield and flow of 2024 aluminum tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stout, M.G.; Hecker, S.S.; Bourcier, R.

    1983-01-01

    2024 aluminum tubes, heat treated to a T6 and T8 temper, were tested in combinations of tension-internal pressure and tension-torsion loading. Yield loci and flow behavior were determined for both modes of loading and compared to theoretical predictions. Both tempers of 2024 aluminum exhibited crystallographic textures and anisotropic yield and flow. Hill's quadratic yield criterion and the associated flow rule under-estimate balanced biaxial yield and flow, which is consistent with hydraulic bulge data on other face-centered cubic metals. Hill's nonquadratic criterion, which adds one additional parameter, and Bassani's criterion, which adds two parameters, predict the anisotropic yield behavior much more accurately. Predictions of the complete flow behavior, including strain paths, with these anisotropic criteria could be improved markedly by including provisions for planar anisotropy

  2. Metallogenetic prospecting prediction of volcanic rock type of uranium deposit in Pucheng Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Bin; Wang Yong

    1998-01-01

    Based on the metallogenetic geological conditions of Pucheng area, metallogenetic geological model existing and the information quality method, the logic vector length method and the logic vector length weighted method, some favorable geological variance are selected. The assessment model is set up and some favorable metallogenetic area are delineated according to the different contribution degrees of the geological variances to mineralization. By geological assessment in the favorable metallogenetic areas, it is considered that the favorable metallogenetic geological conditions exist in this areas, and there are prospecting prospective surroundings areas and glorious prospecting future were confirmed in the district

  3. Convergence on the Prediction of Ice Particle Mass and Projected Area in Ice Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Ice particle mass- and area-dimensional power law (henceforth m-D and A-D) relationships are building-blocks for formulating microphysical processes and optical properties in cloud and climate models, and they are critical for ice cloud remote sensing algorithms, affecting the retrieval accuracy. They can be estimated by (1) directly measuring the sizes, masses and areas of individual ice particles at ground-level and (2) using aircraft probes to simultaneously measure the ice water content (IWC) and ice particle size distribution. A third indirect method is to use observations from method 1 to develop an m-A relationship representing mean conditions in ice clouds. Owing to a tighter correlation (relative to m-D data), this m-A relationship can be used to estimate m from aircraft probe measurements of A. This has the advantage of estimating m at small sizes, down to 10 μm using the 2D-Sterio probe. In this way, 2D-S measurements of maximum dimension D can be related to corresponding estimates of m to develop ice cloud type and temperature dependent m-D expressions. However, these expressions are no longer linear in log-log space, but are slowly varying curves covering most of the size range of natural ice particles. This work compares all three of the above methods and demonstrates close agreement between them. Regarding (1), 4869 ice particles and corresponding melted hemispheres were measured during a field campaign to obtain D and m. Selecting only those unrimed habits that formed between -20°C and -40°C, the mean mass values for selected size intervals are within 35% of the corresponding masses predicted by the Method 3 curve based on a similar temperature range. Moreover, the most recent m-D expression based on Method 2 differs by no more than 50% with the m-D curve from Method 3. Method 3 appears to be the most accurate over the observed ice particle size range (10-4000 μm). An m-D/A-D scheme was developed by which self-consistent m-D and A-D power laws

  4. Stress-strain relation of bentonite at undrained shear. Laboratory tests to investigate the influence of material composition and test technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dueck, Ann; Boergesson, Lennart; Johannesson, Lars-Erik (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    This report describes a laboratory study conducted to update the material model of the buffer material used in the analyses of the effect of a rock shear through a deposition hole. The study considers some new conditions and is especially focused on the reference case with MX-80Ca developed for SR-Site (MX-80 ion exchanged to Ca). The material model is based on relations between density, swelling pressure, shear strength and rate of strain. The reference model is described by Boergesson et al. (2010). The laboratory study is focused on undrained stress-strain-strength properties, which have been studied mainly by conducting triaxial tests and unconfined compression tests. The test results are compared to the earlier measurements and models which show that the new results fit very well into the general picture and models. For the new conditions suitable values of constants included in the model are proposed

  5. Stress-strain relation of bentonite at undrained shear. Laboratory tests to investigate the influence of material composition and test technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dueck, Ann; Boergesson, Lennart; Johannesson, Lars-Erik

    2010-12-01

    This report describes a laboratory study conducted to update the material model of the buffer material used in the analyses of the effect of a rock shear through a deposition hole. The study considers some new conditions and is especially focused on the reference case with MX-80Ca developed for SR-Site (MX-80 ion exchanged to Ca). The material model is based on relations between density, swelling pressure, shear strength and rate of strain. The reference model is described by Boergesson et al. (2010). The laboratory study is focused on undrained stress-strain-strength properties, which have been studied mainly by conducting triaxial tests and unconfined compression tests. The test results are compared to the earlier measurements and models which show that the new results fit very well into the general picture and models. For the new conditions suitable values of constants included in the model are proposed

  6. Analysis of the effects of non-supine sleeping positions on the stress, strain, deformation and intraocular pressure of the human eye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Peter A.

    This thesis presents analytical models, finite element models and experimental data to investigate the response of the human eye to loads that can be experienced when in a non-supine sleeping position. The hypothesis being investigated is that non-supine sleeping positions can lead to stress, strain and deformation of the eye as well as changes in intraocular pressure (IOP) that may exacerbate vision loss in individuals who have glaucoma. To investigate the quasi-static changes in stress and internal pressure, a Fluid-Structure Interaction simulation was performed on an axisymmetrical model of an eye. Common Aerospace Engineering methods for analyzing pressure vessels and hyperelastic structural walls are applied to developing a suitable model. The quasi-static pressure increase was used in an iterative code to analyze changes in IOP over time.

  7. Numerical study of the stress-strain state of reinforced plate on an elastic foundation by the Bubnov-Galerkin method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beskopylny, Alexey; Kadomtseva, Elena; Strelnikov, Grigory

    2017-10-01

    The stress-strain state of a rectangular slab resting on an elastic foundation is considered. The slab material is isotropic. The slab has stiffening ribs that directed parallel to both sides of the plate. Solving equations are obtained for determining the deflection for various mechanical and geometric characteristics of the stiffening ribs which are parallel to different sides of the plate, having different rigidity for bending and torsion. The calculation scheme assumes an orthotropic slab having different cylindrical stiffness in two mutually perpendicular directions parallel to the reinforcing ribs. An elastic foundation is adopted by Winkler model. To determine the deflection the Bubnov-Galerkin method is used. The deflection is taken in the form of an expansion in a series with unknown coefficients by special polynomials, which are a combination of Legendre polynomials.

  8. Hybrid ATDL-gamma distribution model for predicting area source acid gas concentrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jakeman, A J; Taylor, J A

    1985-01-01

    An air quality model is developed to predict the distribution of concentrations of acid gas in an urban airshed. The model is hybrid in character, combining reliable features of a deterministic ATDL-based model with statistical distributional approaches. The gamma distribution was identified from a range of distributional models as the best model. The paper shows that the assumptions of a previous hybrid model may be relaxed and presents a methodology for characterizing the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Results are demonstrated for the 98-percentile predictions of 24-h average data over annual periods at six monitoring sites. This percentile relates to the World Health Organization goal for acid gas concentrations.

  9. A Mathematical Method to Calculate Tumor Contact Surface Area: An Effective Parameter to Predict Renal Function after Partial Nephrectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Po-Fan; Wang, Yu-De; Huang, Chi-Ping; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Yang, Che-Rei; Chen, Guang-Heng; Chang, Chao-Hsiang

    2016-07-01

    We proposed a mathematical formula to calculate contact surface area between a tumor and renal parenchyma. We examined the applicability of using contact surface area to predict renal function after partial nephrectomy. We performed this retrospective study in patients who underwent partial nephrectomy between January 2012 and December 2014. Based on abdominopelvic computerized tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, we calculated the contact surface area using the formula (2*π*radius*depth) developed by integral calculus. We then evaluated the correlation between contact surface area and perioperative parameters, and compared contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. (Radius/Exophytic/endophytic/Nearness to collecting system/Anterior/Location) score in predicting a reduction in renal function. Overall 35, 26 and 45 patients underwent partial nephrectomy with open, laparoscopic and robotic approaches, respectively. Mean ± SD contact surface area was 30.7±26.1 cm(2) and median (IQR) R.E.N.A.L. score was 7 (2.25). Spearman correlation analysis showed that contact surface area was significantly associated with estimated blood loss (p=0.04), operative time (p=0.04) and percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p contact surface area and R.E.N.A.L. score independently affected percent change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (p contact surface area was a better independent predictor of a greater than 10% change in estimated glomerular filtration rate compared to R.E.N.A.L. score (AUC 0.86 vs 0.69). Using this simple mathematical method, contact surface area was associated with surgical outcomes. Compared to R.E.N.A.L. score, contact surface area was a better predictor of functional change after partial nephrectomy. Copyright © 2016 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Effects of mean strain on the random cyclic stress-strain relations of 0Cr18Ni10Ti pipe steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yongxiang; Yang Bing

    2005-01-01

    Experimental study is performed for the effects of the mean strain on the random cyclic stress-strain relations of the new nuclear material, 0Cr18Ni10Ti pipe steel. From saving the size of specimens, an improved maximum likelihood fatigue test method is proposed to operate the present strain-controlled fatigue tests. Six straining ratios, -1, -0.52, -0.22, 0.029, 0.18, and 0.48, respectively, are applied to study the effects. Fatigue test has been carried out on totally 104 specimens. The test results reveal that the material exhibits a Masing behaviour and the saturation hysteresis loops under the six ratios hold an entirely relaxation effect of mean stress. There is no effectively method for the description of the mean straining effects under this case. Previous Zhao's random stress-strain relations are therefore applied to characterizing effectively the scattering test data under the six ratios on a basis of Ramberg-Osgood equation. Then the effects of the ratios are analyzed respectively on the average stress amplitudes, the standard deviations of the stress amplitudes, and the stress amplitudes under different survival probabilities and confidences. The results reveal that the ratios act a relatively decreasing effect to the stress amplitudes under higher survival probabilities and confidences. The strongest effect appears at the ratio of 0.029, and a weaker effect acts as the distance increase of the ratio from the zero. In addition, it is indicated that the effects from the sense of average fatigue lives might result in a wrong conclusion. The effects can be appropriately assessed from a probabilistic sense to take into account the scattering regularity of test data and the size of sampling. (author)

  11. Variations of fracture toughness and stress-strain curve of cold worked stainless steel and their influence on failure strength of cracked pipe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamaya, Masayuki

    2016-01-01

    In order to assess failure probability of cracked components, it is important to know the variations of the material properties and their influence on the failure load assessment. In this study, variations of the fracture toughness and stress-strain curve were investigated for cold worked stainless steel. The variations of the 0.2% proof and ultimate strengths obtained using 8 specimens of 20% cold worked stainless steel (CW20) were 77 MPa and 81 MPa, respectively. The respective variations were decreased to 13 and 21 MPa for 40% cold worked material (CW40). Namely, the variation in the tensile strength was decreased by hardening. The COVs (coefficients of variation) of fracture toughness were 7.3% and 16.7% for CW20 and CW40, respectively. Namely, the variation in the fracture toughness was increased by hardening. Then, in order to investigate the influence of the variations in the material properties on failure load of a cracked pipe, flaw assessments were performed for a cracked pipe subjected to a global bending load. Using the obtained material properties led to variation in the failure load. The variation in the failure load of the cracked pipe caused by the variation in the stress-strain curve was less than 1.5% for the COV. The variation in the failure load caused by fracture toughness variation was relatively large for CW40, although it was less than 2.0% for the maximum case. It was concluded that the hardening induced by cold working does not cause significant variation in the failure load of cracked stainless steel pipe. (author)

  12. A comparative study on the uniaxial mechanical properties of the umbilical vein and umbilical artery using different stress-strain definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Alireza; Navidbakhsh, Mahdi

    2014-12-01

    The umbilical cord is part of the fetus and generally includes one umbilical vein (UV) and two umbilical arteries (UAs). As the saphenous vein and UV are the most commonly used veins for the coronary artery disease treatment as a coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), understating the mechanical properties of UV has a key asset in its performance for CABG. However, there is not only a lack of knowledge on the mechanical properties of UV and UA but there is no agreement as to which stress-strain definition should be implemented to measure their mechanical properties. In this study, the UV and UA samples were removed after caesarean from eight individuals and subjected to a series of tensile testing. Three stress definitions (second Piola-Kichhoff stress, engineering stress, and true stress) and four strain definitions (Almansi-Hamel strain, Green-St. Venant strain, engineering strain, and true strain) were employed to determine the linear mechanical properties of UVs and UAs. The nonlinear mechanical behavior of UV/UA was computationally investigated using hyperelastic material models, such as Ogden and Mooney-Rivlin. The results showed that the effect of varying the stress definition on the maximum stress measurements of the UV/UA is significant but not when calculating the elastic modulus. In the true stress-strain diagram, the maximum strain of UV was 92 % higher, while the elastic modulus and maximum stress were 162 and 42 % lower than that of UA. The Mooney-Rivlin material model was designated to represent the nonlinear mechanical behavior of the UV and UA under uniaxial loading.

  13. Assessment of anthropometric parameters including area of the psoas, area of the back muscle, and psoas-vertebra distance as indices for prediction of vertebral fracture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Tamotsu; Morita, Masahumi; Mabuchi, Kiyoshi

    2005-01-01

    We assessed some anthropometric parameters as indices for the prediction of vertebral compression fracture. We measured the area of the total cross section, area of the back muscle, area of the psoas, area of subcutaneous fat tissue, ratio of the right and left area of the psoas, psoas-vertebra distance, the mediolateral length of the back muscle, anteroposterior length of the back muscle, the mediolateral length of the psoas, and anteroposterior length of the psoas, on computed tomography images. Logistic regression analysis was performed in order to test the correlation between each anthropometric parameter and the incidence of fracture. The odds ratio corresponding to one standard deviation of each parameter was calculated. The ratio of center and anterior vertebral heights and the ratio of center and posterior vertebral heights were measured from the positioning image. The smaller value of these was defined as the vertebral height ratio value. Vertebral height ratio was used as the parameter directly related to vertebral fracture. The subjects for research were 25 women with vertebral compression fracture and 36 women without fracture. Vertebral height ratio had a significant correlation with area of the psoas (correlation coefficient, r=0.609 p<0.001), area of the back muscle (r=0.547 p<0.001), and the psoas-vertebra distance (r=-0.523 p<0.001) in the anthropometric parameters. The odds ratios of the area of the psoas (odds ratio, OR:0.18, 95% confidence interval, CI:0.43 to 0.08), area of the back muscle (OR:0.13, 95% CI:0.37 to 0.05), and the psoas-vertebra distance (OR:3.01, 95% CI:6.22 to 1.46) were high. The odds ratio of the mediolateral length of the psoas (OR:0.34, 95% CI:0.67 to 0.18), and the left-to-right area ratio of the psoas (OR:0.41, 95% CI:0.76 to 0.22) were rather high. However, the vertebral height ratio had no significant correlation with the left-to-right area ratio of the psoas. It was considered that area of the psoas, area of the back

  14. Evaluation of Airborne Remote Sensing Techniques for Predicting the Distribution of Energetic Compounds on Impact Areas

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graves, Mark R; Dove, Linda P; Jenkins, Thomas F; Bigl, Susan; Walsh, Marianne E; Hewitt, Alan D; Lambert, Dennis; Perron, Nancy; Ramsey, Charles; Gamey, Jeff; Beard, Les; Doll, William E; Magoun, Dale

    2007-01-01

    .... Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) technologies were utilized to assist in the development of enhanced sampling strategies to better predict the landscape-scale distribution of energetic compounds...

  15. Vehicle navigation in populated areas using predictive control with environmental uncertainty handling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skrzypczyk Krzysztof

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of navigating an autonomous vehicle using environmental dynamics prediction. The usefulness of the Game Against Nature formalism adapted to modelling environmental prediction uncertainty is discussed. The possibility of the control law synthesis on the basis of strategies against Nature is presented. The properties and effectiveness of the approach presented are verified by simulations carried out in MATLAB.

  16. A new general dynamic model predicting radionuclide concentrations and fluxes in coastal areas from readily accessible driving variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haakanson, Lars

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a general, process-based dynamic model for coastal areas for radionuclides (metals, organics and nutrients) from both single pulse fallout and continuous deposition. The model gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases and concentrations in sediments and fish) for entire defined coastal areas. The model gives monthly variations. It accounts for inflow from tributaries, direct fallout to the coastal area, internal fluxes (sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, burial, mixing and biouptake and retention in fish) and fluxes to and from the sea outside the defined coastal area and/or adjacent coastal areas. The fluxes of water and substances between the sea and the coastal area are differentiated into three categories of coast types: (i) areas where the water exchange is regulated by tidal effects; (ii) open coastal areas where the water exchange is regulated by coastal currents; and (iii) semi-enclosed archipelago coasts. The coastal model gives the fluxes to and from the following four abiotic compartments: surface water, deep water, ET areas (i.e., areas where fine sediment erosion and transport processes dominate the bottom dynamic conditions and resuspension appears) and A-areas (i.e., areas of continuous fine sediment accumulation). Criteria to define the boundaries for the given coastal area towards the sea, and to define whether a coastal area is open or closed are given in operational terms. The model is simple to apply since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, fallout and month of fallout and parameters expressing coastal size and form as determined from, e.g., digitized bathymetric maps using a GIS program. Selected results: the predictions of radionuclide concentrations in water and fish largely depend on two factors, the concentration in the sea outside the given

  17. Evaluation of Airborne Remote Sensing Techniques for Predicting the Distribution of Energetic Compounds on Impact Areas

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Graves, Mark R; Dove, Linda P; Jenkins, Thomas F; Bigl, Susan; Walsh, Marianne E; Hewitt, Alan D; Lambert, Dennis; Perron, Nancy; Ramsey, Charles; Gamey, Jeff; Beard, Les; Doll, William E; Magoun, Dale

    2007-01-01

    .... These sampling approaches do not accurately account for the distribution of such contaminants over the landscape due to the distributed nature of explosive compound sources throughout impact areas...

  18. A kinematic hardening constitutive model for the uniaxial cyclic stress-strain response of magnesium sheet alloys at room temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhitao; Chen, Wufan; Wang, Fenghua; Feng, Miaolin

    2017-11-01

    A kinematic hardening constitutive model is presented, in which a modified form of von Mises yield function is adopted, and the initial asymmetric tension and compression yield stresses of magnesium (Mg) alloys at room temperature (RT) are considered. The hardening behavior was classified into slip, twinning, and untwinning deformation modes, and these were described by two forms of back stress to capture the mechanical response of Mg sheet alloys under cyclic loading tests at RT. Experimental values were obtained for AZ31B-O and AZ31B sheet alloys under both tension-compression-tension (T-C-T) and compression-tension (C-T) loadings to calibrate the parameters of back stresses in the proposed model. The predicted parameters of back stresses in the twinning and untwinning modes were expressed as a cubic polynomial. The predicted curves based on these parameters showed good agreement with the tests.

  19. An Adaptive Model Predictive Load Frequency Control Method for Multi-Area Interconnected Power Systems with Photovoltaic Generations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Qiang Zeng

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available As the penetration level of renewable distributed generations such as wind turbine generator and photovoltaic stations increases, the load frequency control issue of a multi-area interconnected power system becomes more challenging. This paper presents an adaptive model predictive load frequency control method for a multi-area interconnected power system with photovoltaic generation by considering some nonlinear features such as a dead band for governor and generation rate constraint for steam turbine. The dynamic characteristic of this system is formulated as a discrete-time state space model firstly. Then, the predictive dynamic model is obtained by introducing an expanded state vector, and rolling optimization of control signal is implemented based on a cost function by minimizing the weighted sum of square predicted errors and square future control values. The simulation results on a typical two-area power system consisting of photovoltaic and thermal generator have demonstrated the superiority of the proposed model predictive control method to these state-of-the-art control techniques such as firefly algorithm, genetic algorithm, and population extremal optimization-based proportional-integral control methods in cases of normal conditions, load disturbance and parameters uncertainty.

  20. Quantitative assessment and prediction of the contact area development during spherical tip indentation of glassy polymers.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelletier, C.G.N.; Toonder, den J.M.J.; Govaert, L.E.; Hakiri, N.; Sakai, M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the development of the contact area during indentation of polycarbonate. The contact area was measured in situ using an instrumented indentation microscope and compared with numerical simulations using an elasto-plastic constitutive model. The parameters in the model were

  1. Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

    2018-02-15

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN.

  2. Bayesian Predictive Inference of a Proportion Under a Twofold Small-Area Model

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    Nandram Balgobin

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We extend the twofold small-area model of Stukel and Rao (1997; 1999 to accommodate binary data. An example is the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS, in which pass-fail data for mathematics of students from US schools (clusters are available at the third grade by regions and communities (small areas. We compare the finite population proportions of these small areas. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model in which the firststage binary responses have independent Bernoulli distributions, and each subsequent stage is modeled using a beta distribution, which is parameterized by its mean and a correlation coefficient. This twofold small-area model has an intracluster correlation at the first stage and an intercluster correlation at the second stage. The final-stage mean and all correlations are assumed to be noninformative independent random variables. We show how to infer the finite population proportion of each area. We have applied our models to synthetic TIMSS data to show that the twofold model is preferred over a onefold small-area model that ignores the clustering within areas. We further compare these models using a simulation study, which shows that the intracluster correlation is particularly important.

  3. Left atrial low-voltage areas predict atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Masaharu; Fujita, Masashi; Iida, Osamu; Okamoto, Shin; Ishihara, Takayuki; Nanto, Kiyonori; Kanda, Takashi; Tsujimura, Takuya; Matsuda, Yasuhiro; Okuno, Shota; Ohashi, Takuya; Tsuji, Aki; Mano, Toshiaki

    2018-04-15

    Association between the presence of left atrial low-voltage areas and atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) has been shown mainly in persistent AF patients. We sought to compare the AF recurrence rate in paroxysmal AF patients with and without left atrial low-voltage areas. This prospective observational study included 147 consecutive patients undergoing initial ablation for paroxysmal AF. Voltage mapping was performed after PVI during sinus rhythm, and low-voltage areas were defined as regions where bipolar peak-to-peak voltage was low-voltage areas after PVI were observed in 22 (15%) patients. Patients with low-voltage areas were significantly older (72±6 vs. 66±10, plow-voltage areas than without (36% vs. 6%, pLow-voltage areas were independently associated with AF recurrence even after adjustment for the other related factors (Hazard ratio, 5.89; 95% confidence interval, 2.16 to 16.0, p=0.001). The presence of left atrial low-voltage areas after PVI predicts AF recurrence in patients with paroxysmal AF as well as in patients with persistent AF. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Model to predict radiological consequences of transportation accidents involving dispersal of radioactive material in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.

    1978-01-01

    The analysis of accidental releases of radioactive material which may result from transportation accidents in high-density urban areas is influenced by several urban characteristics which make computer simulation the calculational method of choice. These urban features fall into four categories. Each of these categories contains time- and location-dependent parameters which must be coupled to the actual time and location of the release in the calculation of the anticipated radiological consequences. Due to the large number of dependent parameters a computer model, METRAN, has been developed to quantify these radiological consequences. Rather than attempt to describe an urban area as a single entity, a specific urban area is subdivided into a set of cells of fixed size to permit more detailed characterization. Initially, the study area is subdivided into a set of 2-dimensional cells. A uniform set of time-dependent physical characteristics which describe the land use, population distribution, traffic density, etc., within that cell are then computed from various data sources. The METRAN code incorporates several details of urban areas. A principal limitation of the analysis is the limited availability of accurate information to use as input data. Although the code was originally developed to analyze dispersal of radioactive material, it is currently being evaluated for use in analyzing the effects of dispersal of other hazardous materials in both urban and rural areas

  5. Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve-number equation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyon, Steve W.; Walter, M. Todd; Gérard-Marchant, Pierre; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

    2004-10-01

    Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve-number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point-source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS-CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south-eastern Australia to produce runoff-probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN-VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS-CN method, the distributed CN-VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN-VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS-CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology.

  6. Simple models for predicting leaf area of mango (Mangifera indica L.

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    Maryam Ghoreishi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mango (Mangifera indica L., one of the most popular tropical fruits, is cultivated in a considerable part of southern Iran. Leaf area is a valuable parameter in mango research, especially plant physiological and nutrition field. Most of available methods for estimating plant leaf area are difficult to apply, expensive and destructive which could in turn destroy the canopy and consequently make it difficult to perform further tests on the same plant. Therefore, a non-destructive method which is simple, inexpensive, and could yield an accurate estimation of leaf area will be a great benefit to researchers. A regression analysis was performed in order to determine the relationship between the leaf area and leaf width, leaf length, dry and fresh weight. For this purpose 50 mango seedlings of local selections were randomly took from a nursery in the Hormozgan province, and different parts of plants were separated in laboratory. Leaf area was measured by different method included leaf area meter, planimeter, ruler (length and width and the fresh and dry weight of leaves were also measured. The best regression models were statistically selected using Determination Coefficient, Maximum Error, Model Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error and Coefficient of Residual Mass. Overall, based on regression equation, a satisfactory estimation of leaf area was obtained by measuring the non-destructive parameters, i.e. number of leaf per seedling, length of the longest and width of widest leaf (R2 = 0.88 and also destructive parameters, i.e. dry weight (R2 = 0.94 and fresh weight (R2= 0.94 of leaves.

  7. Development of a Multi-Scale Methodology for Prediction of the Microscopic Anisotropic Stress-Strain Response of Textured Metals under Dynamic Loading

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-21

    will be denoted by v ⊗ u. Superscript T indicates the transpose operation (AT )ij = Aji for any second-order tensor A while symbol ‘tr‘ denotes the...indicated in red . which was subsequently marked on the plate as shown in Figure 2. Note that the plate exhibits fiber texture resulting from the...specimen deformed to 10% strain reveals that many grains have twinned (twins appear red in Figure 9). The twin volume fraction was estimated to be 17

  8. 3D transient model to predict temperature and ablated areas during laser processing of metallic surfaces

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    Babak. B. Naghshine

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Laser processing is one of the most popular small-scale patterning methods and has many applications in semiconductor device fabrication and biomedical engineering. Numerical modelling of this process can be used for better understanding of the process, optimization, and predicting the quality of the final product. An accurate 3D model is presented here for short laser pulses that can predict the ablation depth and temperature distribution on any section of the material in a minimal amount of time. In this transient model, variations of thermal properties, plasma shielding, and phase change are considered. Ablation depth was measured using a 3D optical profiler. Calculated depths are in good agreement with measured values on laser treated titanium surfaces. The proposed model can be applied to a wide range of materials and laser systems.

  9. Functional connectivity between somatosensory and motor brain areas predicts individual differences in motor learning by observing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGregor, Heather R; Gribble, Paul L

    2017-08-01

    Action observation can facilitate the acquisition of novel motor skills; however, there is considerable individual variability in the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. Here we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in brain function or structure can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Subjects underwent an anatomical MRI scan and resting-state fMRI scans to assess preobservation gray matter volume and preobservation resting-state functional connectivity (FC), respectively. On the following day, subjects observed a video of a tutor adapting her reaches to a novel force field. After observation, subjects performed reaches in a force field as a behavioral assessment of gains in motor learning resulting from observation. We found that individual differences in resting-state FC, but not gray matter volume, predicted postobservation gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state FC between left primary somatosensory cortex and bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and primary somatosensory cortex and left superior parietal lobule was positively correlated with behavioral measures of postobservation motor learning. Sensory-motor resting-state FC can thus predict the extent to which observation will promote subsequent motor learning. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that individual differences in preobservation brain function can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state functional connectivity within a sensory-motor network may be used as a biomarker for the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. This kind of information may be useful if observation is to be used as a way to boost neuroplasticity and sensory-motor recovery for patients undergoing rehabilitation for diseases that impair movement such as stroke. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  10. Characteristic and Prediction of Carbon Monoxide Concentration using Time Series Analysis in Selected Urban Area in Malaysia

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    Abdul Hamid Hazrul

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carbon monoxide (CO is a poisonous, colorless, odourless and tasteless gas. The main source of carbon monoxide is from motor vehicles and carbon monoxide levels in residential areas closely reflect the traffic density. Prediction of carbon monoxide is important to give an early warning to sufferer of respiratory problems and also can help the related authorities to be more prepared to prevent and take suitable action to overcome the problem. This research was carried out using secondary data from Department of Environment Malaysia from 2013 to 2014. The main objectives of this research is to understand the characteristic of CO concentration and also to find the most suitable time series model to predict the CO concentration in Bachang, Melaka and Kuala Terengganu. Based on the lowest AIC value and several error measure, the results show that ARMA (1,1 is the most appropriate model to predict CO concentration level in Bachang, Melaka while ARMA (1,2 is the most suitable model with smallest error to predict the CO concentration level for residential area in Kuala Terengganu.

  11. Automaticity and localisation of concurrents predicts colour area activity in grapheme-colour synaesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould van Praag, Cassandra D; Garfinkel, Sarah; Ward, Jamie; Bor, Daniel; Seth, Anil K

    2016-07-29

    In grapheme-colour synaesthesia (GCS), the presentation of letters or numbers induces an additional 'concurrent' experience of colour. Early functional MRI (fMRI) investigations of GCS reported activation in colour-selective area V4 during the concurrent experience. However, others have failed to replicate this key finding. We reasoned that individual differences in synaesthetic phenomenology might explain this inconsistency in the literature. To test this hypothesis, we examined fMRI BOLD responses in a group of grapheme-colour synaesthetes (n=20) and matched controls (n=20) while characterising the individual phenomenology of the synaesthetes along dimensions of 'automaticity' and 'localisation'. We used an independent functional localiser to identify colour-selective areas in both groups. Activations in these areas were then assessed during achromatic synaesthesia-inducing, and non-inducing conditions; we also explored whole brain activations, where we sought to replicate the existing literature regarding synaesthesia effects. Controls showed no significant activations in the contrast of inducing > non-inducing synaesthetic stimuli, in colour-selective ROIs or at the whole brain level. In the synaesthete group, we correlated activation within colour-selective ROIs with individual differences in phenomenology using the Coloured Letters and Numbers (CLaN) questionnaire which measures, amongst other attributes, the subjective automaticity/attention in synaesthetic concurrents, and their spatial localisation. Supporting our hypothesis, we found significant correlations between individual measures of synaesthetic phenomenology and BOLD responses in colour-selective areas, when contrasting inducing against non-inducing stimuli. Specifically, left-hemisphere colour area responses were stronger for synaesthetes scoring high on phenomenological localisation and automaticity/attention, while right-hemisphere colour area responses showed a relationship with localisation

  12. Strain dyssynchrony index determined by three-dimensional speckle area tracking can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

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    Onishi Tetsuari

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We have previously reported strain dyssynchrony index assessed by two-dimensional speckle tracking strain, and a marker of both dyssynchrony and residual myocardial contractility, can predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. A newly developed three-dimensional (3-D speckle tracking system can quantify endocardial area change ratio (area strain, which coupled with the factors of both longitudinal and circumferential strain, from all 16 standard left ventricular (LV segments using complete 3-D pyramidal datasets. Our objective was to test the hypothesis that strain dyssynchrony index using area tracking (ASDI can quantify dyssynchrony and predict response to CRT. Methods We studied 14 heart failure patients with ejection fraction of 27 ± 7% (all≤35% and QRS duration of 172 ± 30 ms (all≥120 ms who underwent CRT. Echocardiography was performed before and 6-month after CRT. ASDI was calculated as the average difference between peak and end-systolic area strain of LV endocardium obtained from 3-D speckle tracking imaging using 16 segments. Conventional dyssynchrony measures were assessed by interventricular mechanical delay, Yu Index, and two-dimensional radial dyssynchrony by speckle-tracking strain. Response was defined as a ≥15% decrease in LV end-systolic volume 6-month after CRT. Results ASDI ≥ 3.8% was the best predictor of response to CRT with a sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 100% and area under the curve (AUC of 0.93 (p Conclusions ASDI can predict responders and LV reverse remodeling following CRT. This novel index using the 3-D speckle tracking system, which shows circumferential and longitudinal LV dyssynchrony and residual endocardial contractility, may thus have clinical significance for CRT patients.

  13. Predictive equations for dimensions and leaf area of coastal Southern California street trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson; S.M. Mori

    2001-01-01

    Tree height, crown height, crown width, diameter at breast height (dbh), and leaf area were measured for 16 species of commonly planted street trees in the coastal southern California city of Santa Monica, USA. The randomly sampled trees were planted from 1 to 44 years ago. Using number of years after planting or dbh as explanatory variables, mean values of dbh, tree...

  14. Equations for predicting diameter, height, crown width, and leaf area of San Joaquin Valley street trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson; S.M. Mori

    2001-01-01

    Although the modeling of energy-use reduction, air pollution uptake, rainfall interception, and microclimate modification associated with urban trees depends on data relating diameter at breast height (dbh) , crown height, crown diameter, and leaf area to tree age or dbh, scant information is available for common municipal tree species . I n this study , tree height ,...

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Western Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oE-180o (western equatorial...

  16. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Eastern Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 135oW-120oW (eastern...

  17. Climate Prediction Center (CPC)Area-averaged 850-hPa Central Pacific Trade Wind Anomalies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It is the 850-hPa trade wind anomalies averaged over the area 5oN ? 5oS, 175oW-140oW (central...

  18. Seismic prediction of sweet spots in the Da'anzhai shale play, Yuanba area, the Sichuan Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Changzi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Burial depth, thickness, total organic carbon (TOC content, brittleness and fracture development of shale reservoirs are the main geologic indexes in the evaluation of sweet spots in shale gas plays. Taking the 2nd interval of Da'anzhai shale of the Lower Jurassic as the study object, a set of techniques in seismic prediction of sweet spots were developed based on special processing of seismic data and comprehensive analysis of various data based on these geologic indexes. First, logging and seismic responses of high quality shales were found out through fine calibration of shale reservoir location with seismogram, which was combined with seismic facies analysis to define the macroscopic distribution of the shale. Then, seismic impedance inversion and GR inversion were used to identify shale from limestone and sandstone. Based on statistical analysis of sensitive parameters such as TOC, the uranium log inversion technique was used to quantitatively predict TOC of a shale reservoir and the thickness of a high quality shale reservoir. After that, fracture prediction technique was employed to predict play fairways. Finally, the pre-stack joint P-wave and S-wave impedance inversion technique was adopted to identify shales with high brittleness suitable for hydraulic fracturing. These seismic prediction techniques have been applied in sorting out sweet spots in the 2nd interval of the Da'anzhai shale play of the Yuanba area, and the results provided a sound basis for the optimization of horizontal well placement and hydraulic fracturing.

  19. Prediction Method for Rain Rate and Rain Propagation Attenuation for K-Band Satellite Communications Links in Tropical Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baso Maruddani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the prediction method using hidden Markov model (HMM for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation for K-band satellite communication link at tropical area. As is well known, the K-band frequency is susceptible of being affected by atmospheric condition, especially in rainy condition. The wavelength of K-band frequency which approaches to the size of rain droplet causes the signal strength is easily attenuated and absorbed by the rain droplet. In order to keep the quality of system performance for K-band satellite communication link, therefore a special attention has to be paid for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation. Thus, a prediction method for rain rate and rain propagation attenuation based on HMM is developed to process the measurement data. The measured and predicted data are then compared with the ITU-R recommendation. From the result, it is shown that the measured and predicted data show similarity with the model of ITU-R P.837-5 recommendation for rain rate and the model of ITU-R P.618-10 recommendation for rain propagation attenuation. Meanwhile, statistical data for measured and predicted data such as fade duration and interfade duration have insignificant discrepancy with the model of ITU-R P.1623-1 recommendation.

  20. Elastic (stress-strain) halo associated with ion-induced nano-tracks in lithium niobate: role of crystal anisotropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivera, A; Garcia, G; Olivares, J; Crespillo, M L; Agulló-López, F

    2011-01-01

    The elastic strain/stress fields (halo) around a compressed amorphous nano-track (core) caused by a single high-energy ion impact on LiNbO 3 are calculated. A method is developed to approximately account for the effects of crystal anisotropy of LiNbO 3 (symmetry 3m) on the stress fields for tracks oriented along the crystal axes (X, Y or Z). It only considers the zero-order (axial) harmonic contribution to the displacement field in the perpendicular plane and uses effective Poisson moduli for each particular orientation. The anisotropy is relatively small; however, it accounts for some differential features obtained for irradiations along the crystallographic axes X, Y and Z. In particular, the irradiation-induced disorder (including halo) and the associated surface swelling appear to be higher for irradiations along the X- or Y-axis in comparison with those along the Z-axis. Other irradiation effects can be explained by the model, e.g. fracture patterns or the morphology of pores after chemical etching of tracks. Moreover, it offers interesting predictions on the effect of irradiation on lattice parameters.

  1. Age and area predict patterns of species richness in pumice rafts contingent on oceanic climatic zone encountered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez, Eleanor; Bryan, Scott E; Ekins, Merrick; Cook, Alex G; Hurrey, Lucy; Firn, Jennifer

    2018-05-01

    The theory of island biogeography predicts that area and age explain species richness patterns (or alpha diversity) in insular habitats. Using a unique natural phenomenon, pumice rafting, we measured the influence of area, age, and oceanic climate on patterns of species richness. Pumice rafts are formed simultaneously when submarine volcanoes erupt, the pumice clasts breakup irregularly, forming irregularly shaped pumice stones which while floating through the ocean are colonized by marine biota. We analyze two eruption events and more than 5,000 pumice clasts collected from 29 sites and three climatic zones. Overall, the older and larger pumice clasts held more species. Pumice clasts arriving in tropical and subtropical climates showed this same trend, where in temperate locations species richness (alpha diversity) increased with area but decreased with age. Beta diversity analysis of the communities forming on pumice clasts that arrived in different climatic zones showed that tropical and subtropical clasts transported similar communities, while species composition on temperate clasts differed significantly from both tropical and subtropical arrivals. Using these thousands of insular habitats, we find strong evidence that area and age but also climatic conditions predict the fundamental dynamics of species richness colonizing pumice clasts.

  2. Area and depth of surfactant-induced corneal injury predicts extent of subsequent ocular responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jester, J V; Petroll, W M; Bean, J; Parker, R D; Carr, G J; Cavanagh, H D; Maurer, J K

    1998-12-01

    To correlate area and depth of initial corneal injury induced by surfactants of differing type and irritant properties with corneal responses and outcome in the same animals over time by using in vivo confocal microscopy (CM). Six groups of six adult rabbits were treated with anionic, cationic, and nonionic surfactants that caused different levels of ocular irritation. Test materials included slight irritants: 5% sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS), polyoxyethylene glycol monoalkyl ether (POE), and 5% 3-isotridecyloxypropyl-bis(polyoxyethylene) ammonium chloride (ITDOP); mild irritants: 5% 3-decyloxypropyl-bis(polyoxyethylene) amine (DOP) and sodium linear alkylbenzene sulfonate (LAS); and a moderate irritant: a proprietary detergent (DTRGT). Ten microliters surfactant were directly applied to the cornea of one eye of each rabbit. Ten untreated rabbits served as control subjects. Area and depth of initial injury was determined by using in vivo CM to measure epithelial thickness, epithelial cell size, corneal thickness, and depth of stromal injury in four corneal regions at 3 hours and at day 1. Area and depth of corneal responses to injury were evaluated at various times from days 3 through 35 by macroscopic grading and quantitative confocal microscopy through-focusing (CMTF). In vivo CM revealed corneal injury with slight irritants to be restricted to the epithelium, whereas the mild and moderate irritants caused complete epithelial cell loss with increasing anterior stromal damage: DOP < LAS < DTRGT. With the slight ocular irritants there was little or no change in corneal thickness or the CMTF intensity profiles. Three hours after treatment, mild and moderate ocular irritants caused a significant increase in corneal thickness, which peaked at day 1 with DOP (483.3+/-80.1 microm) and LAS (572.3+/-60.0 microm) and day 3 with DTRGT (601.4+/-68.7 microm); returning to normal (similar to control values) by day 7 with DOP and day 35 with LAS and DTRGT. The CMTF intensity

  3. Predictive Models of Duration of Ground Delay Programs in New York Area Airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Deepak

    2011-01-01

    Initially planned GDP duration often turns out to be an underestimate or an overestimate of the actual GDP duration. This, in turn, results in avoidable airborne or ground delays in the system. Therefore, better models of actual duration have the potential of reducing delays in the system. The overall objective of this study is to develop such models based on logs of GDPs. In a previous report, we described descriptive models of Ground Delay Programs. These models were defined in terms of initial planned duration and in terms of categorical variables. These descriptive models are good at characterizing the historical errors in planned GDP durations. This paper focuses on developing predictive models of GDP duration. Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) are logged by Air Traffic Control facilities with The National Traffic Management Log (NTML) which is a single system for automated recoding, coordination, and distribution of relevant information about TMIs throughout the National Airspace System. (Brickman, 2004 Yuditsky, 2007) We use 2008-2009 GDP data from the NTML database for the study reported in this paper. NTML information about a GDP includes the initial specification, possibly one or more revisions, and the cancellation. In the next section, we describe general characteristics of Ground Delay Programs. In the third section, we develop models of actual duration. In the fourth section, we compare predictive performance of these models. The final section is a conclusion.

  4. Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models at Los Alamos National Lab Technical Area 54

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shield, Stephen Allan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Dai, Zhenxue [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-08-18

    Meteorological inputs are an important part of subsurface flow and transport modeling. The choice of source for meteorological data used as inputs has significant impacts on the results of subsurface flow and transport studies. One method to obtain the meteorological data required for flow and transport studies is the use of weather generating models. This paper compares the difference in performance of two weather generating models at Technical Area 54 of Los Alamos National Lab. Technical Area 54 is contains several waste pits for low-level radioactive waste and is the site for subsurface flow and transport studies. This makes the comparison of the performance of the two weather generators at this site particularly valuable.

  5. Artificial neural network for prediction of the area under the disease progress curve of tomato late blight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Pedrosa Alves

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Artificial neural networks (ANN are computational models inspired by the neural systems of living beings capable of learning from examples and using them to solve problems such as non-linear prediction, and pattern recognition, in addition to several other applications. In this study, ANN were used to predict the value of the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC for the tomato late blight pathosystem. The AUDPC is widely used by epidemiologic studies of polycyclic diseases, especially those regarding quantitative resistance of genotypes. However, a series of six evaluations over time is necessary to obtain the final area value for this pathosystem. This study aimed to investigate the utilization of ANN to construct an AUDPC in the tomato late blight pathosystem, using a reduced number of severity evaluations. For this, four independent experiments were performed giving a total of 1836 plants infected with Phytophthora infestans pathogen. They were assessed every three days, comprised six opportunities and AUDPC calculations were performed by the conventional method. After the ANN were created it was possible to predict the AUDPC with correlations of 0.97 and 0.84 when compared to conventional methods, using 50 % and 67 % of the genotype evaluations, respectively. When using the ANN created in an experiment to predict the AUDPC of the other experiments the average correlation was 0.94, with two evaluations, 0.96, with three evaluations, between the predicted values of the ANN and they were observed in six evaluations. We present in this study a new paradigm for the use of AUDPC information in tomato experiments faced with P. infestans. This new proposed paradigm might be adapted to different pathosystems.

  6. Effect of the load of drive axles and high of the curtain on stress-strain properties of the tractor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Šmerda

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the experimental measurement was determination of relation among weight load of the tractor together, hitch height changes and drawbar characteristic. The measurement was realized on chassis dynamometer at MUAF in Brno. The first step consisted of rated speed characteristics measurement in conformity with OECD demands. The drawbar characteristic was measured under two selected gears. Adding 980 kg to the nominal wight of the tractor brought increasing maximal drawbar power and drawbar force together with decreasing of slip. The highest differences were observed during the mesurement of fifth gear shifted. The drawbar force grew up to 18.9% as well as the maximal drawbar power (15.2%. The maximal drawbar power at ninth gear gave 62.8 kW. The hitch height was setting to 0.54 m; 0.64 m and 0.74 m. When the hitch height was set from 0.54 m to 0.74 m the drawbar force an power on front axle was lower by reason of load reduction. As can be noticed from the final drawbar characteristics, both curves are identical up to border of maximal drawbar power. Small differences in the area of the highest slips can be ascribed to the rolling resistance.

  7. Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

    2008-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of

  8. Determination of the stress-strain curve in specimens of Scots pine for numerical simulation of defect free beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baño, V.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop a twodimensional numerical model to simulate the response of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. defect free timber members in order to predict the behaviour of these members when subjected to external forces. For this purpose, data of the mechanical properties of Scots pine were obtained by performing experimental tests on specimens. We determined the stresses and deformations of timber beams in the elastic-plastic and plastic phases. In addition, we developed a finite element software that considered the orthotropic nature of timber, the non-linearity of the compression-reduction branch and the differing moduli of elasticity in tension and compression for Scots pine beams free from defects. The software developed simulates an experimental four point bending test according to UNE-EN 408 Standard.

    El objetivo de este trabajo es el desarrollo de un modelo numérico bidimensional de piezas de madera de Pinus sylvestris L. libre de defectos que prediga su comportamiento frente a solicitaciones externas. Para su desarrollo, fue necesario realizar ensayos experimentales sobre probetas de pequeño tamaño con el fin de obtener los datos de las propiedades mecánicas para el Pinus sylvestris L. de procedencia española. A partir de los datos experimentales obtenidos, se desarrolla un programa de elementos finitos que considera la ortotropía de la madera, la no linealidad de la rama compresión-acortamiento y los distintos módulos de elasticidad a tracción y a compresión para vigas libres de defectos. El programa simula el ensayo experimental de flexión en cuatro puntos según la Norma UNE-EN 408 y aborda la determinación de las tensiones y deformaciones de las vigas de madera en las tres fases de comportamiento: elástica, elastoplástica y plástica.

  9. Using the area under the curve to reduce measurement error in predicting young adult blood pressure from childhood measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Nancy R; Rosner, Bernard A; Chen, Wei; Srinivasan, Sathanur R; Berenson, Gerald S

    2004-11-30

    Tracking correlations of blood pressure, particularly childhood measures, may be attenuated by within-person variability. Combining multiple measurements can reduce this error substantially. The area under the curve (AUC) computed from longitudinal growth curve models can be used to improve the prediction of young adult blood pressure from childhood measures. Quadratic random-effects models over unequally spaced repeated measures were used to compute the area under the curve separately within the age periods 5-14 and 20-34 years in the Bogalusa Heart Study. This method adjusts for the uneven age distribution and captures the underlying or average blood pressure, leading to improved estimates of correlation and risk prediction. Tracking correlations were computed by race and gender, and were approximately 0.6 for systolic, 0.5-0.6 for K4 diastolic, and 0.4-0.6 for K5 diastolic blood pressure. The AUC can also be used to regress young adult blood pressure on childhood blood pressure and childhood and young adult body mass index (BMI). In these data, while childhood blood pressure and young adult BMI were generally directly predictive of young adult blood pressure, childhood BMI was negatively correlated with young adult blood pressure when childhood blood pressure was in the model. In addition, racial differences in young adult blood pressure were reduced, but not eliminated, after controlling for childhood blood pressure, childhood BMI, and young adult BMI, suggesting that other genetic or lifestyle factors contribute to this difference. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Construction of long-term isochronous stress-strain curves by a modeling of short-term creep curves for a Grade 9Cr-1Mo steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Yin, Song-Nan; Koo, Gyeong-Hoi

    2009-01-01

    This study dealt with the construction of long-term isochronous stress-strain curves (ISSC) by a modeling of short-term creep curves for a Grade 9Cr-1Mo steel (G91) which is a candidate material for structural applications in the next generation nuclear reactors as well as in fusion reactors. To do this, tensile material data used in the inelastic constitutive equations was obtained by tensile tests at 550degC. Creep curves were obtained by a series of creep tests with different stress levels of 300MPa to 220MPa at an identical controlled temperature of 550degC. On the basis of these experimental data, the creep curves were characterized by Garofalo's creep model. Three parameters of P 1 , P 2 and P 3 in Garofalo's model were properly optimized by a nonlinear least square fitting (NLSF) analysis. The stress dependency of the three parameters was found to be a linear relationship. But, the P 3 parameter representing the steady state creep rate exhibited a two slope behavior with different stress exponents at a transient stress of about 250 MPa. The long-term creep curves of the G91 steel was modeled by Garofalo's model with only a few short-term creep data. Using the modeled creep curves, the long-term isochronous curves up to 10 5 hours were successfully constructed. (author)

  11. Predicted Infiltration for Sodic/Saline Soils from Reclaimed Coastal Areas: Sensitivity to Model Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongdong Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm3. A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ0 was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

  12. Predicted infiltration for sodic/saline soils from reclaimed coastal areas: sensitivity to model parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dongdong; She, Dongli; Yu, Shuang'en; Shao, Guangcheng; Chen, Dan

    2014-01-01

    This study was conducted to assess the influences of soil surface conditions and initial soil water content on water movement in unsaturated sodic soils of reclaimed coastal areas. Data was collected from column experiments in which two soils from a Chinese coastal area reclaimed in 2007 (Soil A, saline) and 1960 (Soil B, nonsaline) were used, with bulk densities of 1.4 or 1.5 g/cm(3). A 1D-infiltration model was created using a finite difference method and its sensitivity to hydraulic related parameters was tested. The model well simulated the measured data. The results revealed that soil compaction notably affected the water retention of both soils. Model simulations showed that increasing the ponded water depth had little effect on the infiltration process, since the increases in cumulative infiltration and wetting front advancement rate were small. However, the wetting front advancement rate increased and the cumulative infiltration decreased to a greater extent when θ₀ was increased. Soil physical quality was described better by the S parameter than by the saturated hydraulic conductivity since the latter was also affected by the physical chemical effects on clay swelling occurring in the presence of different levels of electrolytes in the soil solutions of the two soils.

  13. The healing stages of an intramedullary implanted tibia: A stress strain comparative analysis of the calcification process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filardi, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    with Abaqus version 5.4 (Hibbitt, Karlsson and Sorensen, Inc., Pawtucket, RI) using the geometric non linearity and automatic time stepping options. Conclusion The obtained results reveal interesting consequences deriving by taking into account how the stress shielding can influence the integrity and resistance of bones, in order to identify the mechanical reasons for the unfavourable clinical results, and to identify borderline indications due to biomechanical factors. The evolution of treatment options for these fractures has been closely linked to developments in implant technology and surgical technique. Further developments in this area, particularly with respect to minimally invasive plating techniques and nail design are ongoing. PMID:26719629

  14. Debris-flows scale predictions based on basin spatial parameters calculated from Remote Sensing images in Wenchuan earthquake area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Huaizhen; Chi, Tianhe; Liu, Tianyue; Wang, Wei; Yang, Lina; Zhao, Yuan; Shao, Jing; Yao, Xiaojing; Fan, Jianrong

    2014-01-01

    Debris flow is a common hazard in the Wenchuan earthquake area. Collapse and Landslide Regions (CLR), caused by earthquakes, could be located from Remote Sensing images. CLR are the direct material source regions for debris flow. The Spatial Distribution of Collapse and Landslide Regions (SDCLR) strongly impact debris-flow formation. In order to depict SDCLR, we referred to Strahler's Hypsometric analysis method and developed 3 functional models to depict SDCLR quantitatively. These models mainly depict SDCLR relative to altitude, basin mouth and main gullies of debris flow. We used the integral of functions as the spatial parameters of SDCLR and these parameters were employed during the process of debris-flows scale predictions. Grouping-occurring debris-flows triggered by the rainstorm, which occurred on September 24th 2008 in Beichuan County, Sichuan province China, were selected to build the empirical equations for debris-flows scale predictions. Given the existing data, only debris-flows runout zone parameters (Max. runout distance L and Lateral width B) were estimated in this paper. The results indicate that the predicted results were more accurate when the spatial parameters were used. Accordingly, we suggest spatial parameters of SDCLR should be considered in the process of debris-flows scale prediction and proposed several strategies to prevent debris flow in the future

  15. [Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

    2014-12-01

    The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

  16. Multivariable predictive control considering time delay for load-frequency control in multi-area power systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniar Sabah

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multivariable model based predictive control (MPC is proposed for the solution of load frequency control (LFC in a multi-area interconnected power system. The proposed controller is designed to consider time delay, generation rate constraint and multivariable nature of the LFC system, simultaneously. A new formulation of the MPC is presented to compensate time delay. The generation rate constraint is considered by employing a constrained MPC and economic allocation of the generation is further guaranteed by an innovative modification in the predictive control objective function. The effectiveness of proposed scheme is verified through time-based simulations on the standard 39-bus test system and the responses are then compared with the proportional-integral controller. The evaluation of the results reveals that the proposed control scheme offers satisfactory performance with fast responses.

  17. Applicability of a Single Time Point Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Concentration Curve of Linezolid in Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives: Linezolid, a oxazolidinone, was the first in class to be approved for the treatment of bacterial infections arising from both susceptible and resistant strains of Gram-positive bacteria. Since overt exposure of linezolid may precipitate serious toxicity issues......, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may be required in certain situations, especially in patients who are prescribed other co-medications. Methods: Using appropriate oral pharmacokinetic data (single dose and steady state) for linezolid, both maximum plasma drug concentration (Cmax) versus area under the plasma...... concentration–time curve (AUC) and minimum plasma drug concentration (Cmin) versus AUC relationship was established by linear regression models. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax or Cmin data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted...

  18. Transient stability enhancement of modern power grid using predictive Wide-Area Monitoring and Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefian, Reza

    This dissertation presents a real-time Wide-Area Control (WAC) designed based on artificial intelligence for large scale modern power systems transient stability enhancement. The WAC using the measurements available from Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) at generator buses, monitors the global oscillations in the system and optimally augments the local excitation system of the synchronous generators. The complexity of the power system stability problem along with uncertainties and nonlinearities makes the conventional modeling non-practical or inaccurate. In this work Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithm on the benchmark of Neural Networks (NNs) is used to map the nonlinearities of the system in real-time. This method different from both the centralized and the decentralized control schemes, employs a number of semi-autonomous agents to collaborate with each other to perform optimal control theory well-suited for WAC applications. Also, to handle the delays in Wide-Area Monitoring (WAM) and adapt the RL toward the robust control design, Temporal Difference (TD) is proposed as a solver for RL problem or optimal cost function. However, the main drawback of such WAC design is that it is challenging to determine if an offline trained network is valid to assess the stability of the power system once the system is evolved to a different operating state or network topology. In order to address the generality issue of NNs, a value priority scheme is proposed in this work to design a hybrid linear and nonlinear controllers. The algorithm so-called supervised RL is based on mixture of experts, where it is initialized by linear controller and as the performance and identification of the RL controller improves in real-time switches to the other controller. This work also focuses on transient stability and develops Lyapunov energy functions for synchronous generators to monitor the stability stress of the system. Using such energies as a cost function guarantees the convergence

  19. Computational prediction of the effective temperature in the lying area of pig pens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerg, Bjarne; Rong, Li; Zhang, Guoqiang

    2018-01-01

    Using solid floor instead of drained or slatted floor in the lying areas of pig pens has distinct advantages in relation to animal welfare, odour abatement and ammonia emission, energy consumption and reduced building costs. However, pig producers often opt out of providing a solid floor due......, individually contribute to the combined effect of the thermal condition raising pigs are exposed to. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted to estimate the relevant parameters and, finally, the ET. Furthermore, the developed ET equation was implemented in the CFD model as a Custom Field...... Function to calculate the distribution of ET in the animal occupied zone. It was assumed that a traditional diffuse ceiling air inlet would deliver the required airflow rate as long as the outdoor temperature was below 10. °C. At higher outdoor temperature, a ceiling-jet inlet above each pen was opened...

  20. Global gradients in vertebrate diversity predicted by historical area-productivity dynamics and contemporary environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Jetz

    Full Text Available Broad-scale geographic gradients in species richness have now been extensively documented, but their historical underpinning is still not well understood. While the importance of productivity, temperature, and a scale dependence of the determinants of diversity is broadly acknowledged, we argue here that limitation to a single analysis scale and data pseudo-replication have impeded an integrated evolutionary and ecological understanding of diversity gradients. We develop and apply a hierarchical analysis framework for global diversity gradients that incorporates an explicit accounting of past environmental variation and provides an appropriate measurement of richness. Due to environmental niche conservatism, organisms generally reside in climatically defined bioregions, or "evolutionary arenas," characterized by in situ speciation and extinction. These bioregions differ in age and their total productivity and have varied over time in area and energy available for diversification. We show that, consistently across the four major terrestrial vertebrate groups, current-day species richness of the world's main 32 bioregions is best explained by a model that integrates area and productivity over geological time together with temperature. Adding finer scale variation in energy availability as an ecological predictor of within-bioregional patterns of richness explains much of the remaining global variation in richness at the 110 km grain. These results highlight the separate evolutionary and ecological effects of energy availability and provide a first conceptual and empirical integration of the key drivers of broad-scale richness gradients. Avoiding the pseudo-replication that hampers the evolutionary interpretation of non-hierarchical macroecological analyses, our findings integrate evolutionary and ecological mechanisms at their most relevant scales and offer a new synthesis regarding global diversity gradients.

  1. Predicting long-term streamflow variability in moist eucalypt forests using forest growth models and a sapwood area index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaskierniak, D.; Kuczera, G.; Benyon, R.

    2016-04-01

    A major challenge in surface hydrology involves predicting streamflow in ungauged catchments with heterogeneous vegetation and spatiotemporally varying evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We present a top-down approach for quantifying the influence of broad-scale changes in forest structure on ET and hence streamflow. Across three catchments between 18 and 100 km2 in size and with regenerating Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis forest, we demonstrate how variation in ET can be mapped in space and over time using LiDAR data and commonly available forest inventory data. The model scales plot-level sapwood area (SA) to the catchment-level using basal area (BA) and tree stocking density (N) estimates in forest growth models. The SA estimates over a 69 year regeneration period are used in a relationship between SA and vegetation induced streamflow loss (L) to predict annual streamflow (Q) with annual rainfall (P) estimates. Without calibrating P, BA, N, SA, and L to Q data, we predict annual Q with R2 between 0.68 and 0.75 and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between 0.44 and 0.48. To remove bias, the model was extended to allow for runoff carry-over into the following year as well as minor correction to rainfall bias, which produced R2 values between 0.72 and 0.79, and NSE between 0.70 and 0.79. The model under-predicts streamflow during drought periods as it lacks representation of ecohydrological processes that reduce L with either reduced growth rates or rainfall interception during drought. Refining the relationship between sapwood thickness and forest inventory variables is likely to further improve results.

  2. Effective Connectivity from Early Visual Cortex to Posterior Occipitotemporal Face Areas Supports Face Selectivity and Predicts Developmental Prosopagnosia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, Michael; Garrido, Lucia; Driver, Jon; Dolan, Raymond J; Duchaine, Bradley C; Furl, Nicholas

    2016-03-30

    selectivity. Furthermore, people with developmental prosopagnosia, a lifelong face recognition impairment, have reduced face selectivity in the posterior occipitotemporal face areas and left anterior temporal lobe. We show that this reduced face selectivity can be predicted by effective connectivity from early visual cortex to posterior occipitotemporal face areas. This study presents the first network-based account of how face selectivity arises in the human brain. Copyright © 2016 Lohse et al.

  3. Developing a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based model for predicting water table depth in agricultural areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianfeng; Zhu, Yan; Zhang, Xiaoping; Ye, Ming; Yang, Jinzhong

    2018-06-01

    Predicting water table depth over the long-term in agricultural areas presents great challenges because these areas have complex and heterogeneous hydrogeological characteristics, boundary conditions, and human activities; also, nonlinear interactions occur among these factors. Therefore, a new time series model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), was developed in this study as an alternative to computationally expensive physical models. The proposed model is composed of an LSTM layer with another fully connected layer on top of it, with a dropout method applied in the first LSTM layer. In this study, the proposed model was applied and evaluated in five sub-areas of Hetao Irrigation District in arid northwestern China using data of 14 years (2000-2013). The proposed model uses monthly water diversion, evaporation, precipitation, temperature, and time as input data to predict water table depth. A simple but effective standardization method was employed to pre-process data to ensure data on the same scale. 14 years of data are separated into two sets: training set (2000-2011) and validation set (2012-2013) in the experiment. As expected, the proposed model achieves higher R2 scores (0.789-0.952) in water table depth prediction, when compared with the results of traditional feed-forward neural network (FFNN), which only reaches relatively low R2 scores (0.004-0.495), proving that the proposed model can preserve and learn previous information well. Furthermore, the validity of the dropout method and the proposed model's architecture are discussed. Through experimentation, the results show that the dropout method can prevent overfitting significantly. In addition, comparisons between the R2 scores of the proposed model and Double-LSTM model (R2 scores range from 0.170 to 0.864), further prove that the proposed model's architecture is reasonable and can contribute to a strong learning ability on time series data. Thus, one can conclude that the proposed model can

  4. Predicting areas of sustainable error growth in quasigeostrophic flows using perturbation alignment properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivière, G.; Hua, B. L.

    2004-10-01

    A new perturbation initialization method is used to quantify error growth due to inaccuracies of the forecast model initial conditions in a quasigeostrophic box ocean model describing a wind-driven double gyre circulation. This method is based on recent analytical results on Lagrangian alignment dynamics of the perturbation velocity vector in quasigeostrophic flows. More specifically, it consists in initializing a unique perturbation from the sole knowledge of the control flow properties at the initial time of the forecast and whose velocity vector orientation satisfies a Lagrangian equilibrium criterion. This Alignment-based Initialization method is hereafter denoted as the AI method.In terms of spatial distribution of the errors, we have compared favorably the AI error forecast with the mean error obtained with a Monte-Carlo ensemble prediction. It is shown that the AI forecast is on average as efficient as the error forecast initialized with the leading singular vector for the palenstrophy norm, and significantly more efficient than that for total energy and enstrophy norms. Furthermore, a more precise examination shows that the AI forecast is systematically relevant for all control flows whereas the palenstrophy singular vector forecast leads sometimes to very good scores and sometimes to very bad ones.A principal component analysis at the final time of the forecast shows that the AI mode spatial structure is comparable to that of the first eigenvector of the error covariance matrix for a "bred mode" ensemble. Furthermore, the kinetic energy of the AI mode grows at the same constant rate as that of the "bred modes" from the initial time to the final time of the forecast and is therefore characterized by a sustained phase of error growth. In this sense, the AI mode based on Lagrangian dynamics of the perturbation velocity orientation provides a rationale of the "bred mode" behavior.

  5. Poor Positive Predictive Value of Lyme Disease Serologic Testing in an Area of Low Disease Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantos, Paul M; Branda, John A; Boggan, Joel C; Chudgar, Saumil M; Wilson, Elizabeth A; Ruffin, Felicia; Fowler, Vance; Auwaerter, Paul G; Nigrovic, Lise E

    2015-11-01

    Lyme disease is diagnosed by 2-tiered serologic testing in patients with a compatible clinical illness, but the significance of positive test results in low-prevalence regions has not been investigated. We reviewed the medical records of patients who tested positive for Lyme disease with standardized 2-tiered serologic testing between 2005 and 2010 at a single hospital system in a region with little endemic Lyme disease. Based on clinical findings, we calculated the positive predictive value of Lyme disease serology. Next, we reviewed the outcome of serologic testing in patients with select clinical syndromes compatible with disseminated Lyme disease (arthritis, cranial neuropathy, or meningitis). During the 6-year study period 4723 patients were tested for Lyme disease, but only 76 (1.6%) had positive results by established laboratory criteria. Among 70 seropositive patients whose medical records were available for review, 12 (17%; 95% confidence interval, 9%-28%) were found to have Lyme disease (6 with documented travel to endemic regions). During the same time period, 297 patients with a clinical illness compatible with disseminated Lyme disease underwent 2-tiered serologic testing. Six of them (2%; 95% confidence interval, 0.7%-4.3%) were seropositive, 3 with documented travel and 1 who had an alternative diagnosis that explained the clinical findings. In this low-prevalence cohort, fewer than 20% of positive Lyme disease tests are obtained from patients with clinically likely Lyme disease. Positive Lyme disease test results may have little diagnostic value in this setting. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Application-driven ground motion prediction equation for seismic hazard assessments in non-cratonic moderate-seismicity areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindi, D.; Cotton, F.; Kotha, S. R.; Bosse, C.; Stromeyer, D.; Grünthal, G.

    2017-09-01

    We present a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) for probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) in low-to-moderate seismicity areas, such as Germany. Starting from the NGA-West2 flat-file (Ancheta et al. in Earthquake Spectra 30:989-1005, 2014), we develop a model tailored to the hazard application in terms of data selection and implemented functional form. In light of such hazard application, the GMPE is derived for hypocentral distance (along with the Joyner-Boore one), selecting recordings at sites with vs30 ≥ 360 m/s, distances within 300 km, and magnitudes in the range 3 to 8 (being 7.4 the maximum magnitude for the PSHA in the target area). Moreover, the complexity of the considered functional form is reflecting the availability of information in the target area. The median predictions are compared with those from the NGA-West2 models and with one recent European model, using the Sammon's map constructed for different scenarios. Despite the simplification in the functional form, the assessed epistemic uncertainty in the GMPE median is of the order of those affecting the NGA-West2 models for the magnitude range of interest of the hazard application. On the other hand, the simplification of the functional form led to an increment of the apparent aleatory variability. In conclusion, the GMPE developed in this study is tailored to the needs for applications in low-to-moderate seismic areas and for short return periods (e.g., 475 years); its application in studies where the hazard is involving magnitudes above 7.4 and for long return periods is not advised.

  7. Seismic prediction on the favorable efficient development areas of the Longwangmiao Fm gas reservoir in the Gaoshiti–Moxi area, Sichuan Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangrong Zhang

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The Lower Cambrian Longwangmiao Fm gas reservoir in the Gaoshiti–Moxi area, the Sichuan Basin, is a super giant monoblock marine carbonate gas reservoir with its single size being the largest in China. The key to the realization of high and stable production gas wells in this gas reservoir is to identify accurately high-permeability zones where there are dissolved pores or dissolved pores are superimposed with fractures. However, high quality dolomite reservoirs are characterized by large burial depth and strong heterogeneity, so reservoir prediction is of difficult. In this paper, related seismic researches were carried out and supporting technologies were developed as follows. First, a geologic model was built after an analysis of the existing data and forward modeling was carried out to establish a reservoir seismic response model. Second, by virtue of well-oriented amplitude processing technology, spherical diffusion compensation factor was obtained based on VSP well logging data and the true amplitude of seismic data was recovered. Third, the resolution of deep seismic data was improved by using the well-oriented high-resolution frequency-expanding technology and prestack time migration data of high quality was acquired. And fourth, multiple shoal facies reservoirs were traced by using the global automatic seismic interpretation technology which is based on stratigraphic model, multiple reservoirs which are laterally continuous and vertically superimposed could be predicted, and the areal distribution of high quality reservoirs could be described accurately and efficiently. By virtue of the supporting technologies, drilling trajectory is positioned accurately, and the deployed development wells all have high yield. These technologies also promote the construction of a modern supergiant gas field of tens of billions of cubic meters.

  8. Factors predicting organochlorine pesticide levels in pregnant Latina women living in a United States agricultural area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradman, Asa; Schwartz, Jackie M.; Fenster, Laura; Barr, Dana B.; Holland, Nina T.; Eskenazi, Brenda

    2015-01-01

    Organochlorine (OC) pesticide use was restricted starting in the 1970s in developed countries and the 1980s and 1990s in developing countries. Current exposure to OC pesticides – DDT, lindane (99% pure gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (γ-HCH)), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) – occurs on a limited basis. We measured p,p′-DDE, p,p′-DDT, o,p′-DDT, HCB, beta (β)-HCH (the most persistent isomer of technical-grade HCH) and γ-HCH in serum from 426 low-income pregnant Latina women living in an agricultural community in California. Detection frequencies were 94-100%. Median levels (ng/g-lipid) of p,p′-DDE (1,052), p,p′-DDT (13), β-HCH (37) and HCB (65) were significantly higher than U.S. population levels. Multivariate analyses of p,p′-DDE, p,p′-DDT, o,p′-DDT, β-HCH and HCB indicate that time spent living outside the United States and birthplace in an area of Mexico with recent use of OC pesticides were significant predictors of exposure. Time spent living in the United States was associated with increased serum levels of p,p′-DDE and β-HCH, but the increase for each year lived in the United States was lower than for each year lived outside the United States. There was no difference between the increase of HCB levels over time spent in or outside the United States, suggesting current and thus preventable exposure routes. However, we observed no associations between serum levels of any OC compound and current intake of saturated fat or agricultural take-home exposure risk factors. Lactation history and recent weight gain were negatively associated with serum levels of some, but not all OC compounds studied. Smoking history was borderline associated with elevated HCB levels. We observed no significant associations with body mass index. Although the weight of evidence from this study indicates that most exposure occurred prior to moving to the United States, the results for HCB indicate the possibility of ongoing exposure in this country. PMID:17033681

  9. An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

    2010-07-01

    This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO{sub 2} exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO{sub 2} fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO{sub 2} uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO{sub 2} exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

  10. An application of plot-scale NDVI in predicting carbon dioxide exchange and leaf area index in heterogeneous subarctic tundra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dagg, J.; Lafleur, P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reported on a study that examined the flow of carbon into and out of tundra ecosystems. It is necessary to accurately predict carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange in the Tundra because of the impacts of climate change on carbon stored in permafrost. Understanding the relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and vegetation and CO 2 exchange may explain how small-scale variation in vegetation community extends to remotely sensed estimates of landscape characteristics. In this study, CO 2 fluxes were measured with a portable chamber in a range of Tundra vegetation communities. Biomass and leaf area were measured with destructive harvest, and NDVI was obtained using a hand-held infrared camera. There was a weak correlation between NDVI and leaf area index in some vegetation communities, but a significant correlation between NDVI and biomass, including mosses. NDVI was found to be strongly related to photosynthetic activity and net CO 2 uptake in all vegetation groups. However, NDVI related to ecosystem respiration only in wet sedge. It was concluded that at plot scale, the ability of NDVI to predict ecosystem properties and CO 2 exchange in heterogeneous Tundra vegetation is variable.

  11. Predicted Liquefaction in the Greater Oakland and Northern Santa Clara Valley Areas for a Repeat of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, T. L.; Noce, T. E.; Bennett, M. J.

    2008-12-01

    Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by latest Holocene alluvial fan levee deposits where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906. The liquefaction scenario maps were created with ArcGIS ModelBuilder. Peak ground accelerations first were computed with the new Boore and Atkinson NGA attenuation relation (2008, Earthquake Spectra, 24:1, p. 99-138), using VS30 to account for local site response. Spatial liquefaction probabilities were then estimated using the predicted ground motions

  12. Wavefront coherence area for predicting visual acuity of post-PRK and post-PARK refractive surgery patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Daniel D.; van de Pol, Corina; Barsky, Brian A.; Klein, Stanley A.

    1999-06-01

    Many current corneal topography instruments (called videokeratographs) provide an `acuity index' based on corneal smoothness to analyze expected visual acuity. However, post-refractive surgery patients often exhibit better acuity than is predicted by such indices. One reason for this is that visual acuity may not necessarily be determined by overall corneal smoothness but rather by having some part of the cornea able to focus light coherently onto the fovea. We present a new method of representing visual acuity by measuring the wavefront aberration, using principles from both ray and wave optics. For each point P on the cornea, we measure the size of the associated coherence area whose optical path length (OPL), from a reference plane to P's focus, is within a certain tolerance of the OPL for P. We measured the topographies and vision of 62 eyes of patients who had undergone the corneal refractive surgery procedures of photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and photorefractive astigmatic keratectomy (PARK). In addition to high contrast visual acuity, our vision tests included low contrast and low luminance to test the contribution of the PRK transition zone. We found our metric for visual acuity to be better than all other metrics at predicting the acuity of low contrast and low luminance. However, high contrast visual acuity was poorly predicted by all of the indices we studied, including our own. The indices provided by current videokeratographs sometimes fail for corneas whose shape differs from simple ellipsoidal models. This is the case with post-PRK and post-PARK refractive surgery patients. Our alternative representation that displays the coherence area of the wavefront has considerable advantages, and promises to be a better predictor of low contrast and low luminance visual acuity than current shape measures.

  13. MODEL SIMULATION OF GEOMETRY AND STRESS-STRAIN VARIATION OF BATAN FUEL PIN PROTOTYPE DURING IRRADIATION TEST IN RSG-GAS REACTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suwardi Suwardi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available MODEL SIMULATION OF GEOMETRY AND STRESS-STRAIN VARIATION OF BATAN FUEL PIN PROTOTYPE DURING IRRADIATION TEST IN RSG-GAS REACTOR*. The first short fuel pin containing natural UO2 pellet in Zry4 cladding has been prepared at the CNFT (Center for Nuclear Fuel Technology then a ramp test will be performed. The present work is part of designing first irradiation experiments in the PRTF (Power Ramp Test Facility of RSG-GAS 30 MW reactor. The thermal mechanic of the pin during irradiation has simulated. The geometry variation of pellet and cladding is modeled by taking into account different phenomena such as thermal expansion, densification, swelling by fission product, thermal creep and radiation growth. The cladding variation is modeled by thermal expansion, thermal and irradiation creeps. The material properties are modeled by MATPRO and standard numerical parameter of TRANSURANUS code. Results of irradiation simulation with 9 kW/m LHR indicates that pellet-clad contacts onset from 0.090 mm initial gaps after 806 d, when pellet radius expansion attain 0.015 mm while inner cladding creep-down 0.075 mm. A newer computation data show that the maximum measured LHR of n-UO2 pin in the PRTF 12.4 kW/m. The next simulation will be done with a higher LHR, up to ~ 25 kW/m. MODEL SIMULASI VARIASI GEOMETRI DAN STRESS-STRAIN DARI PROTOTIP BAHAN BAKAR PIN BATAN SELAMA UJI IRADIASI DI REAKTOR RSG-GAS. Pusat Teknologi Bahan Bakar Nuklir (PTBBN telah menyiapkan tangkai (pin bahan bakar pendek perdana yang berisi pelet UO2 alam dalam kelongsong paduan zircaloy untuk dilakukan uji iradiasi daya naik. Penelitian ini merupakan bagian dari perancangan percobaan iradiasi pertama di PRTF (Power Ramp Test Fasility yang terpasang di reaktor serbaguna RSG-GAS berdaya 30 MW. Telah dilakukan pemodelan dan simulasi kinerja termal mekanikal pin selama iradiasi. Variasi geometri pelet dan kelongsong selama pengujian dimodelkan dengan memperhatikan fenomena ekspansi termal

  14. Validating computationally predicted TMS stimulation areas using direct electrical stimulation in patients with brain tumors near precentral regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opitz, Alexander; Zafar, Noman; Bockermann, Volker; Rohde, Veit; Paulus, Walter

    2014-01-01

    The spatial extent of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is of paramount interest for all studies employing this method. It is generally assumed that the induced electric field is the crucial parameter to determine which cortical regions are excited. While it is difficult to directly measure the electric field, one usually relies on computational models to estimate the electric field distribution. Direct electrical stimulation (DES) is a local brain stimulation method generally considered the gold standard to map structure-function relationships in the brain. Its application is typically limited to patients undergoing brain surgery. In this study we compare the computationally predicted stimulation area in TMS with the DES area in six patients with tumors near precentral regions. We combine a motor evoked potential (MEP) mapping experiment for both TMS and DES with realistic individual finite element method (FEM) simulations of the electric field distribution during TMS and DES. On average, stimulation areas in TMS and DES show an overlap of up to 80%, thus validating our computational physiology approach to estimate TMS excitation volumes. Our results can help in understanding the spatial spread of TMS effects and in optimizing stimulation protocols to more specifically target certain cortical regions based on computational modeling.

  15. Numerical climate modeling and verification of selected areas for heat waves of Pakistan using ensemble prediction system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amna, S; Samreen, N; Khalid, B; Shamim, A

    2013-01-01

    Depending upon the topography, there is an extreme variation in the temperature of Pakistan. Heat waves are the Weather-related events, having significant impact on the humans, including all socioeconomic activities and health issues as well which changes according to the climatic conditions of the area. The forecasting climate is of prime importance for being aware of future climatic changes, in order to mitigate them. The study used the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the purpose of modeling seasonal weather hind-cast of three selected areas i.e., Islamabad, Jhelum and Muzaffarabad. This research was purposely carried out in order to suggest the most suitable climate model for Pakistan. Real time and simulated data of five General Circulation Models i.e., ECMWF, ERA-40, MPI, Meteo France and UKMO for selected areas was acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department. Data incorporated constituted the statistical temperature records of 32 years for the months of June, July and August. This study was based on EPS to calculate probabilistic forecasts produced by single ensembles. Verification was done out to assess the quality of the forecast t by using standard probabilistic measures of Brier Score, Brier Skill Score, Cross Validation and Relative Operating Characteristic curve. The results showed ECMWF the most suitable model for Islamabad and Jhelum; and Meteo France for Muzaffarabad. Other models have significant results by omitting particular initial conditions.

  16. Landslide prediction using combined deterministic and probabilistic methods in hilly area of Mt. Medvednica in Zagreb City, Croatia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunxiang; Watanabe, Naoki; Marui, Hideaki

    2013-04-01

    The hilly slopes of Mt. Medvednica are stretched in the northwestern part of Zagreb City, Croatia, and extend to approximately 180km2. In this area, landslides, e.g. Kostanjek landslide and Črešnjevec landslide, have brought damage to many houses, roads, farmlands, grassland and etc. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the potential landslides and to enhance landslide inventory for hazard mitigation and security management of local society in this area. We combined deterministic method and probabilistic method to assess potential landslides including their locations, size and sliding surfaces. Firstly, this study area is divided into several slope units that have similar topographic and geological characteristics using the hydrology analysis tool in ArcGIS. Then, a GIS-based modified three-dimensional Hovland's method for slope stability analysis system is developed to identify the sliding surface and corresponding three-dimensional safety factor for each slope unit. Each sliding surface is assumed to be the lower part of each ellipsoid. The direction of inclination of the ellipsoid is considered to be the same as the main dip direction of the slope unit. The center point of the ellipsoid is randomly set to the center point of a grid cell in the slope unit. The minimum three-dimensional safety factor and corresponding critical sliding surface are also obtained for each slope unit. Thirdly, since a single value of safety factor is insufficient to evaluate the slope stability of a slope unit, the ratio of the number of calculation cases in which the three-dimensional safety factor values less than 1.0 to the total number of trial calculation is defined as the failure probability of the slope unit. If the failure probability is more than 80%, the slope unit is distinguished as 'unstable' from other slope units and the landslide hazard can be mapped for the whole study area.

  17. [Prediction model of meteorological grade of wheat stripe rust in winter-reproductive area, Sichuan Basin, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiang; Wang, Ming Tian; Zhang, Guo Zhi

    2017-12-01

    The winter reproductive areas of Puccinia striiformis var. striiformis in Sichuan Basin are often the places mostly affected by wheat stripe rust. With data on the meteorological condition and stripe rust situation at typical stations in the winter reproductive area in Sichuan Basin from 1999 to 2016, this paper classified the meteorological conditions inducing wheat stripe rust into 5 grades, based on the incidence area ratio of the disease. The meteorological factors which were biologically related to wheat stripe rust were determined through multiple analytical methods, and a meteorological grade model for forecasting wheat stripe rust was created. The result showed that wheat stripe rust in Sichuan Basin was significantly correlated with many meteorological factors, such as the ave-rage (maximum and minimum) temperature, precipitation and its anomaly percentage, relative humidity and its anomaly percentage, average wind speed and sunshine duration. Among these, the average temperature and the anomaly percentage of relative humidity were the determining factors. According to a historical retrospective test, the accuracy of the forecast based on the model was 64% for samples in the county-level test, and 89% for samples in the municipal-level test. In a meteorological grade forecast of wheat stripe rust in the winter reproductive areas in Sichuan Basin in 2017, the prediction was accurate for 62.8% of the samples, with 27.9% error by one grade and only 9.3% error by two or more grades. As a result, the model could deliver satisfactory forecast results, and predicate future wheat stripe rust from a meteorological point of view.

  18. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative uncertainty for sediment size in the New York offshore planning area by NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents sediment size prediction uncertainty from a sediment spatial model developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. The model also...

  19. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative uncertainty for seabird diversity metrics in the New York offshore planning area by NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...

  20. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of seabird species richness in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents seabird species richness, or number of species, predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area....

  1. NOAA ESRI Grid - predictions of relative seabird abundance in the New York offshore planning area made by the NOAA Biogeography Branch

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset represents relative seabird abundance predictions from spatial models developed for the New York offshore spatial planning area. This raster was derived...

  2. Semiautomatic Segmentation of Rim Area Focal Hyperautofluorescence Predicts Progression of Geographic Atrophy Due to Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allingham, Michael J; Nie, Qing; Lad, Eleonora M; Izatt, Daniel J; Mettu, Priyatham S; Cousins, Scott W; Farsiu, Sina

    2016-04-01

    To develop image analysis software usable by nonexpert graders to segment geographic atrophy (GA) from dry AMD and to quantify rim area focal hyperautofluorescence (RAFH) surrounding GA on fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images. To compare the GA progression predictions based on RAFH with those of a validated qualitative classification system. Retrospective analysis of serial FAF images from 49 eyes of 30 subjects with GA was performed using MATLAB-based software (MathWorks, Natick, MA, USA). Correlation between RAFH and progression of GA was analyzed using Spearman correlation. Comparisons of lesion growth rate between RAFH tertiles used generalized estimating equations and Kruskal-Wallis testing. Interobserver variability in lesion size, growth rate and RAFH were compared between two expert and one nonexpert grader using Bland-Altman statistics. Rim area focal hyperautofluorescence was positively correlated with GA progression rate (ρ = 0.49, P < 0.001). Subjects in the middle or highest RAFH tertile were at greater risk of progression (P = 0.005 and P = 0.001, respectively). Mean difference in RAFH was 0.012 between expert and -0.005 to 0.017 between expert and nonexperts. Mean difference in lesion size (mm2) was 0.11 between expert and -0.29 to 0.41 between expert and nonexperts. Mean difference in lesion growth rate (mm2/mo) was 0.0098 between expert and -0.027 to 0.037 between expert and nonexperts. Risk stratification based on RAFH tertile was 96% identical across all graders. Our semiautomated image analysis software facilitates stratification of progression risk based on RAFH and enabled a nonexpert grader with minimal training to obtain results comparable to expert graders. Predictions based on RAFH were similar to those of a validated qualitative classification system.

  3. Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: an open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettina Ohse; Falk Huettmann; Stefanie M. Ickert-Bond; Glenn P. Juday

    2009-01-01

    Most wilderness areas still lack accurate distribution information on tree species. We met this need with a predictive GIS modeling approach, using freely available digital data and computer programs to efficiently obtain high-quality species distribution maps. Here we present a digital map with the predicted distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca...

  4. Limited sampling strategies drawn within 3 hours postdose poorly predict mycophenolic acid area-under-the-curve after enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winter, B.C. de; Gelder, T. van; Mathôt, R.A.A.; Glander, P.; Tedesco-Silva, H.; Hilbrands, L.B.; Budde, K.; Hest, R.M. van

    2009-01-01

    Previous studies predicted that limited sampling strategies (LSS) for estimation of mycophenolic acid (MPA) area-under-the-curve (AUC(0-12)) after ingestion of enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) using a clinically feasible sampling scheme may have poor predictive performance. Failure of

  5. A hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction system for real-time flood forecasting purposes in the Milano area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Romero, Romualdo; Homar, Victor; Mancini, Marco

    2015-04-01

    Analysis of forecasting strategies that can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Western Mediterranean region is one of the fundamental motivations of the European HyMeX programme. Here, we examine a set of hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed before the occurred flash-floods. Indeed, flood damages have exponentially increased in the area during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. The flood forecasting system tested in this work comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models, in order to provide a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS). Deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) have been provided by WRF model in a set of 48-hours experiments. HEPS has been generated by combining different physical parameterizations (i.e. cloud microphysics, moist convection and boundary-layer schemes) of the WRF model in order to better encompass the atmospheric processes leading to high precipitation amounts. We have been able to test the value of a probabilistic versus a deterministic framework when driving Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs). Results highlight (i) the benefits of using a high-resolution HEPS in conveying uncertainties for this complex orographic area and (ii) a better simulation of the most of extreme precipitation events, potentially enabling valuable probabilistic QDFs. Hence, the HEPS copes with the significant deficiencies found in the deterministic QPFs. These shortcomings would prevent to correctly forecast the location and timing of high precipitation rates and

  6. Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simón, Luis; Afonin, Alexandr; López-Díez, Lucía Isabel; González-Miguel, Javier; Morchón, Rodrigo; Carretón, Elena; Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Kartashev, Vladimir; Simón, Fernando

    2014-03-01

    Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Using Logistic Regression To Predict the Probability of Debris Flows Occurring in Areas Recently Burned By Wildland Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.

    2003-01-01

    Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of debris flows occurring in areas recently burned by wildland fires. Multiple logistic regression is conceptually similar to multiple linear regression because statistical relations between one dependent variable and several independent variables are evaluated. In logistic regression, however, the dependent variable is transformed to a binary variable (debris flow did or did not occur), and the actual probability of the debris flow occurring is statistically modeled. Data from 399 basins located within 15 wildland fires that burned during 2000-2002 in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and New Mexico were evaluated. More than 35 independent variables describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows were delineated from National Elevation Data using a Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Data describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were determined for each basin. These data were then downloaded to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression. (3) Relations between the occurrence/non-occurrence of debris flows and burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated and several preliminary multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combination produced the most effective model. The multivariate model that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows was selected. (4) The multivariate logistic regression model was entered into a GIS, and a map showing the probability of debris flows was constructed. The most effective model incorporates the percentage of each basin with slope greater than 30 percent, percentage of land burned at medium and high burn severity

  8. Development of a code MOGRA for predicting the migration of ground additions and its application to various land utilization areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, Hikaru; Uchida, Shigeo; Matsuoka, Syungo; Ikeda, Hiroshi; Hayashi, Hiroko; Kurosawa, Naohiro

    2003-01-01

    A Code MOGRA (Migration Of GRound Additions) is a migration prediction code for toxic ground additions including radioactive materials in a terrestrial environment, which consists of computational codes that are applicable to various evaluation target systems, and can be used on personal computers. The computational code has the dynamic compartment analysis block at its core, the graphical user interface (GUI) for model formation, computation parameter settings, and results displays. The compartments are obtained by classifying various natural environments into groups that exhibit similar properties. The functionality of MOGRA is being verified by applying it in the analyses of the migration rates of radioactive substances from the atmosphere to soils and plants and flow rates into the rivers. In this report, a hypothetical combination of land usage was supposed to check the function of MOGRA. The land usage was consisted from cultivated lands, forests, uncultivated lands, urban area, river, and lake. Each land usage has its own inside model which is basic module. Also supposed was homogeneous contamination of the surface land from atmospheric deposition of 137 Cs(1.0Bq/m 2 ). The system analyzed the dynamic changes of 137 Cs concentrations in each compartment, fluxes from one compartment to another compartment. (author)

  9. Using Simulated Ground Motions to Constrain Near-Source Ground Motion Prediction Equations in Areas Experiencing Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bydlon, S. A.; Dunham, E. M.

    2016-12-01

    Recent increases in seismic activity in historically quiescent areas such as Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas, including large, potentially induced events such as the 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK, earthquake, have spurred the need for investigation into expected ground motions associated with these seismic sources. The neoteric nature of this seismicity increase corresponds to a scarcity of ground motion recordings within 50 km of earthquakes Mw 3.0 and greater, with increasing scarcity at larger magnitudes. Gathering additional near-source ground motion data will help better constraints on regional ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and will happen over time, but this leaves open the possibility of damaging earthquakes occurring before potential ground shaking and seismic hazard in these areas are properly understood. To aid the effort of constraining near-source GMPEs associated with induced seismicity, we integrate synthetic ground motion data from simulated earthquakes into the process. Using the dynamic rupture and seismic wave propagation code waveqlab3d, we perform verification and validation exercises intended to establish confidence in simulated ground motions for use in constraining GMPEs. We verify the accuracy of our ground motion simulator by performing the PEER/SCEC layer-over-halfspace comparison problem LOH.1 Validation exercises to ensure that we are synthesizing realistic ground motion data include comparisons to recorded ground motions for specific earthquakes in target areas of Oklahoma between Mw 3.0 and 4.0. Using a 3D velocity structure that includes a 1D structure with additional small-scale heterogeneity, the properties of which are based on well-log data from Oklahoma, we perform ground motion simulations of small (Mw 3.0 - 4.0) earthquakes using point moment tensor sources. We use the resulting synthetic ground motion data to develop GMPEs for small earthquakes in Oklahoma. Preliminary results indicate that ground motions can be amplified

  10. 陷落柱填隙物全应力-应变过程的渗流特性研究%Research on permeability characteristics of karst collapse column fillings in complete stress-strain process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张勃阳; 白海波; 张凯

    2016-01-01

    岩溶陷落柱易导通含水层与煤层从而引发底板突水事故,已经成为我国华北地区下组煤开采的重要安全隐患。对于固结良好的陷落柱,其填隙物的渗透性直接影响着陷落柱的整体渗透性,且在采动压力的影响下,陷落柱填隙物的渗透性也在不断发生变化。为研究不同应力状态下填隙物渗透率的变化规律,对填隙物进行固结重塑,并利用MTS815.02渗流试验系统对重塑后不同初始含水率的填隙物试样进行了不同围压条件下的全应力-应变过程的渗流特性试验。试验结果表明:1)陷落柱填隙物全应力-应变过程渗透率的变化曲线可划分为压密段、破坏段和蠕变段,渗透率对应的呈现出减小-增大-减小的变化规律;2)填隙物的全应力-应变过程的渗透率峰值随围压的增大而减小,其峰值比与围压差存在指数函数关系;3)填隙物的初始渗透率和孔隙度随初始含水率的增大而增大,渗透率比和孔隙度比存在幂函数关系,在全应力-应变过程中渗透率峰值与初始值的差随初始含水率的增大而减小。%The floor water-inrush accident caused by karst collapse column is easy to break over the aquifer and coal seam. This kind of accident has become the serious danger of lower group coal mining in northern China. For the well-consolidated collapse column, the permeability of the fillings directly affects that of the overall collapse column, and the permeability of fillings constantly changes under the influence of mining. The study on seepage characteristic of collapse column fillings is conducted with MTS815.02 seepage test system in a complete stress-strain process and the variation of permeability under different strain states. Meanwhile the influence of initial moisture content and confining pressure on the fillings permeability is analyzed in this test. The results show that: 1) The representative stress-strain

  11. Estimation of plasma area under the curve for etanidazole (SR 2508) in toxicity prediction and dose adjustment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Workman, P.; Ward, R.; Maughan, T.S.; Newman, H.F.; Bleehen, N.M.

    1989-01-01

    The hydrophilic 2-nitroimidazole radiosensitizer etanidazole is currently undergoing clinical evaluation. Although considerably less neurotoxic than misonidazole because of its rapid renal clearance and partial exclusion from the nervous system, total dose is limited by peripheral neuropathy. Monitoring plasma etanidazole concentration in patients to determine the area under the curve (AUC0-infinity) has been proposed as a method of predicting patients at risk, and of providing a quantitative basis for dose reduction in such patients. Successful application of this policy requires accurate assessment of AUC0-infinity. We have analyzed plasma data for 18 patients receiving 2 g/m2 etanidazole to determine the errors introduced in the estimation of AUC0-infinity caused by omitting selected time points from the analysis. A 'baseline' AUC0-infinity value was calculated by integration of the rate equation for the 2-compartment model using data points at 0, 15, and 30 min and 1, 2, 4, 8, 12, and 24 hr after the end of infusion. The mean +/- SD area for AUC0-infinity was 502 +/- 152 micrograms ml-1 h (2.35 +/- 0.71 mM.h). Omitting the zero or the 24 hr time point, the average errors were quite small (2.5% in both cases), but errors of up to 16.4 and 7.3%, respectively, were seen for individual patients. Leaving out both the 8 hr and 12 hr points at the same time gave a similar low average error of 2.9%, with a highest error of 7.3%. Omitting all data points after 4 hr, the mean error was 24.7% and 15 of 18 patients had errors in excess of 10%. In addition, failure to correct for infusion time results in an underestimation of AUC0-infinity averaging 4.5% (range 1.9-8.7%). The choice of sampling times for toxicological monitoring will depend upon the accuracy with which the AUC0-infinity must be known. Including all data points between 0 and 24 hr will minimize errors

  12. Cellular Automata Modelling in Predicting the Development of Settlement Areas, A Case Study in The Eastern District of Pontianak Waterfront City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurhidayati, E.; Buchori, I.; Mussadun; Fariz, T. R.

    2017-07-01

    Pontianak waterfront city as water-based urban has the potential of water resources, socio-economic, cultural, tourism and riverine settlements. Settlements areas in the eastern district of Pontianak waterfront city is located in the triangle of Kapuas river and Landak river. This study uses quantitative-GIS methods that integrates binary logistic regression and Cellular Automata-Markov models. The data used in this study such as satellite imagery Quickbird 2003, Ikonos 2008 and elevation contour interval 1 meter. This study aims to discover the settlement land use changes in 2003-2014 and to predict the settlements areas in 2020. This study results the accuracy in predicting of changes in settlements areas shows overall accuracy (79.74%) and the highest kappa index (0.55). The prediction results show that settlement areas (481.98 Ha) in 2020 and the increasingly of settlement areas (6.80 Ha/year) in 2014-2020. The development of settlement areas in 2020 shows the highest land expansion in Parit Mayor Village. The results of regression coefficient value (0) of flooding variable, so flooding did not influence to the development of settlement areas in the eastern district of Pontianak because the building’s adaptation of rumah panggung’s settlements was very good which have adjusted to the height of tidal flood.

  13. Simulating Virtual Terminal Area Weather Data Bases for Use in the Wake Vortex Avoidance System (Wake VAS) Prediction Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Michael L.; Lin, Yuh-Lang

    2004-01-01

    During the research project, sounding datasets were generated for the region surrounding 9 major airports, including Dallas, TX, Boston, MA, New York, NY, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, Atlanta, GA, Miami, FL, San Francico, CA, and Los Angeles, CA. The numerical simulation of winter and summer environments during which no instrument flight rule impact was occurring at these 9 terminals was performed using the most contemporary version of the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS) model nested from 36 km to 6 km to 1 km horizontal resolution and very detailed vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer. The soundings from the 1 km model were archived at 30 minute time intervals for a 24 hour period and the vertical dependent variables as well as derived quantities, i.e., 3-dimensional wind components, temperatures, pressures, mixing ratios, turbulence kinetic energy and eddy dissipation rates were then interpolated to 5 m vertical resolution up to 1000 m elevation above ground level. After partial validation against field experiment datasets for Dallas as well as larger scale and much coarser resolution observations at the other 8 airports, these sounding datasets were sent to NASA for use in the Virtual Air Space and Modeling program. The application of these datasets being to determine representative airport weather environments to diagnose the response of simulated wake vortices to realistic atmospheric environments. These virtual datasets are based on large scale observed atmospheric initial conditions that are dynamically interpolated in space and time. The 1 km nested-grid simulated datasets providing a very coarse and highly smoothed representation of airport environment meteorological conditions. Details concerning the airport surface forcing are virtually absent from these simulated datasets although the observed background atmospheric processes have been compared to the simulated fields and the fields were found to accurately replicate the flows

  14. Call Arrival Rate Prediction and Blocking Probability Estimation for Infrastructure based Mobile Cognitive Radio Personal Area Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeta Nathani

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Cognitive Radio usage has been estimated as non-emergency service with low volume traffic. Present work proposes an infrastructure based Cognitive Radio network and probability of success of CR traffic in licensed band. The Cognitive Radio nodes will form cluster. The cluster nodes will communicate on Industrial, Scientific and Medical band using IPv6 over Low-Power Wireless Personal Area Network based protocol from sensor to Gateway Cluster Head. For Cognitive Radio-Media Access Control protocol for Gateway to Cognitive Radio-Base Station communication, it will use vacant channels of licensed band. Standalone secondary users of Cognitive Radio Network shall be considered as a Gateway with one user. The Gateway will handle multi-channel multi radio for communication with Base Station. Cognitive Radio Network operators shall define various traffic data accumulation counters at Base Station for storing signal strength, Carrier-to-Interference and Noise Ratio, etc. parameters and record channel occupied/vacant status. The researches has been done so far using hour as interval is too long for parameters like holding time expressed in minutes and hence channel vacant/occupied status time is only probabilistically calculated. In the present work, an infrastructure based architecture has been proposed which polls channel status each minute in contrary to hourly polling of data. The Gateways of the Cognitive Radio Network shall monitor status of each Primary User periodically inside its working range and shall inform to Cognitive Radio- Base Station for preparation of minutewise database. For simulation, the occupancy data for all primary user channels were pulled in one minute interval from a live mobile network. Hourly traffic data and minutewise holding times has been analyzed to optimize the parameters of Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average prediction model. The blocking probability of an incoming Cognitive Radio call has been

  15. Intranasal Pharmacokinetic Data for Triptans Such as Sumatriptan and Zolmitriptan Can Render Area Under the Curve (AUC) Predictions for the Oral Route: Strategy Development and Application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R.; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-01-01

    Limited pharmacokinetic sampling strategy may be useful for predicting the area under the curve (AUC) for triptans and may have clinical utility as a prospective tool for prediction. Using appropriate intranasal pharmacokinetic data, a Cmax vs. AUC relationship was established by linear regression...... models for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold-difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean positive error (MPE......), mean negative error (MNE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two triptans. Also, data from the mean concentration profiles at time points of 1 hour (sumatriptan) and 3 hours (zolmitriptan) were used...

  16. Prediction of 137Cs and 90Sr accumulation in milk of horses and sheep grazing the area adjacent to the 'Experimental Field' technical area of the Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gontarenko, I.A.; Spiridonov, S.I.; Mukusheva, M.K.

    2005-01-01

    The paper describes mathematical models for 137 Cs and 90 Sr behavior in body of horses and sheep grazing the area adjacent to the 'Experimental Field' Technical Area of the Semipalatinsk test site. The models were parametrized on the basis of experimental data for those breeds of animals that are currently encountered within the Semipalatinsk test area. The predictive conclusions using devised models have shown that 137 Cs and 90 Sr concentration in milk of horses and sheep grazing the Experimental field are can exceed the adopted standards during a long period of time. (author)

  17. Predicting live and dead tree basal area of bark beetle affected forests from discrete-return lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin C. Bright; Andrew T. Hudak; Robert McGaughey; Hans-Erik Andersen; Jose Negron

    2013-01-01

    Bark beetle outbreaks have killed large numbers of trees across North America in recent years. Lidar remote sensing can be used to effectively estimate forest biomass, but prediction of both live and dead standing biomass in beetle-affected forests using lidar alone has not been demonstrated. We developed Random Forest (RF) models predicting total, live, dead, and...

  18. Intranasal Pharmacokinetic Data for Triptans Such as Sumatriptan and Zolmitriptan Can Render Area Under the Curve (AUC) Predictions for the Oral Route: Strategy Development and Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-01-01

    Limited pharmacokinetic sampling strategy may be useful for predicting the area under the curve (AUC) for triptans and may have clinical utility as a prospective tool for prediction. Using appropriate intranasal pharmacokinetic data, a Cmax vs. AUC relationship was established by linear regression models for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold-difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean positive error (MPE), mean negative error (MNE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two triptans. Also, data from the mean concentration profiles at time points of 1 hour (sumatriptan) and 3 hours (zolmitriptan) were used for the AUC prediction. The Cmax vs. AUC models displayed excellent correlation for both sumatriptan (r = .9997; P AUCs (83%-85%) were within 0.76-1.25-fold difference using the regression model. The prediction of AUC values for sumatriptan or zolmitriptan using the concentration data that reflected the Tmax occurrence were in the proximity of the reported values. In summary, the Cmax vs. AUC models exhibited strong correlations for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The usefulness of the prediction of the AUC values was established by a rigorous statistical approach.

  19. The Brain Activity in Brodmann Area 17: A Potential Bio-Marker to Predict Patient Responses to Antiepileptic Drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yida Hu

    Full Text Available In this study, we aimed to predict newly diagnosed patient responses to antiepileptic drugs (AEDs using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging tools to explore changes in spontaneous brain activity. We recruited 21 newly diagnosed epileptic patients, 8 drug-resistant (DR patients, 11 well-healed (WH patients, and 13 healthy controls. After a 12-month follow-up, 11 newly diagnosed epileptic patients who showed a poor response to AEDs were placed into the seizures uncontrolled (SUC group, while 10 patients were enrolled in the seizure-controlled (SC group. By calculating the amplitude of fractional low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF of blood oxygen level-dependent signals to measure brain activity during rest, we found that the SUC patients showed increased activity in the bilateral occipital lobe, particularly in the cuneus and lingual gyrus compared with the SC group and healthy controls. Interestingly, DR patients also showed increased activity in the identical cuneus and lingual gyrus regions, which comprise Brodmann's area 17 (BA17, compared with the SUC patients; however, these abnormalities were not observed in SC and WH patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves indicated that the fALFF value of BA17 could differentiate SUC patients from SC patients and healthy controls with sufficient sensitivity and specificity prior to the administration of medication. Functional connectivity analysis was subsequently performed to evaluate the difference in connectivity between BA17 and other brain regions in the SUC, SC and control groups. Regions nearby the cuneus and lingual gyrus were found positive connectivity increased changes or positive connectivity changes with BA17 in the SUC patients, while remarkably negative connectivity increased changes or positive connectivity decreased changes were found in the SC patients. Additionally, default mode network (DMN regions showed negative connectivity increased changes or

  20. Finite element prediction of the swift effect based on Taylor-type polycrystal plasticity models

    OpenAIRE

    Duchene, Laurent; Delannay, L.; Habraken, Anne

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the main concepts of the stress-strain interpolation model that has been implemented in the non-linear finite element code Lagamine. This model consists in a local description of the yield locus based on the texture of the material through the full constraints Taylor’s model. The prediction of the Swift effect is investigated: the influence of the texture evolution is shown up. The LAMEL model is also investigated for the Swift effect prediction. Peer reviewed

  1. Clinical utility of calf front hoof circumference and maternal intrapelvic area in predicting dystocia in 103 late gestation Holstein-Friesian heifers and cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiew, Mark W H; Megahed, Ameer A; Townsend, Jonathan R; Singleton, Wayne L; Constable, Peter D

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the clinical utility of measuring calf front hoof circumference, maternal intrapelvic area, and selected morphometric values in predicting dystocia in dairy cattle. An observational study using a convenience sample of 103 late-gestation Holstein-Friesian heifers and cows was performed. Intrapelvic height and width of the dam were measured using a pelvimeter, and the intrapelvic area was calculated. Calf front hoof circumference and birth weight were also measured. Data were analyzed using Spearman's correlation coefficient (rs), Mann-Whitney U test, and binary or ordered logistic regression; P dystocia (calving difficulty score = 4 or 5), with sensitivity = 0.50 and specificity = 0.93 at the optimal cutpoint for the ratio (>0.068 cm/cm(2)). Determining the ratio of calf front hoof circumference to maternal intrapelvic area has clinical utility in predicting the calving difficulty score in Holstein-Friesian cattle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Predictive value of fever and palmar pallor for P. falciparum parasitaemia in children from an endemic area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinnemeier, Christof David; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Sarpong, Nimako; Loag, Wibke; Acquah, Samuel; Nkrumah, Bernard; Huenger, Frank; Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw; May, Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    Although the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa is reported to decline and other conditions, causing similar symptoms as clinical malaria are gaining in relevance, presumptive anti-malarial treatment is still common. This study traced for age-dependent signs and symptoms predictive for P. falciparum parasitaemia. In total, 5447 visits of 3641 patients between 2-60 months of age who attended an outpatient department (OPD) of a rural hospital in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, were analysed. All Children were examined by a paediatrician and a full blood count and thick smear were done. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model was used to generate a clinical decision tree to predict malarial parasitaemia a7nd predictive values of all symptoms were calculated. Malarial parasitaemia was detected in children between 2-12 months and between 12-60 months of age with a prevalence of 13.8% and 30.6%, respectively. The CART-model revealed age-dependent differences in the ability of the variables to predict parasitaemia. While palmar pallor was the most important symptom in children between 2-12 months, a report of fever and an elevated body temperature of ≥37.5°C gained in relevance in children between 12-60 months. The variable palmar pallor was significantly (p<0.001) associated with lower haemoglobin levels in children of all ages. Compared to the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm the CART-model had much lower sensitivities, but higher specificities and positive predictive values for a malarial parasitaemia. Use of age-derived algorithms increases the specificity of the prediction for P. falciparum parasitaemia. The predictive value of palmar pallor should be underlined in health worker training. Due to a lack of sensitivity neither the best algorithm nor palmar pallor as a single sign are eligible for decision-making and cannot replace presumptive treatment or laboratory diagnosis.

  3. A novel hybrid evidential belief function-based fuzzy logic model in spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Lang Son city area (Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieu Tien Bui

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of an integrated evidential belief function (EBF-based fuzzy logic model for spatial prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Lang Son city area (Vietnam. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. Then the landslide inventory map was randomly partitioned as a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, six landslide conditioning factors (slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, distance to faults, soil type, land use were prepared and fuzzy membership values for these factors classes were estimated using the EBF. Subsequently, fuzzy operators were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were validated and compared using the validation dataset. The results show that the lowest prediction capability is the fuzzy SUM (76.6%. The prediction capability is almost the same for the fuzzy PRODUCT and fuzzy GAMMA models (79.6%. Compared to the frequency-ratio based fuzzy logic models, the EBF-based fuzzy logic models showed better result in both the success rate and prediction rate. The results from this study may be useful for local planner in areas prone to landslides. The modelling approach can be applied for other areas.

  4. Ratio of ovarian stroma and total ovarian area by ultrasound in prediction of hyperandrogenemia in reproductive-aged Thai women with polycystic ovary syndrome: a diagnostic test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leerasiri, Pichai; Wongwananuruk, Thanyarat; Rattanachaiyanont, Manee; Indhavivadhana, Suchada; Techatraisak, Kitirat; Angsuwathana, Surasak

    2015-02-01

    To evaluate the performance of ovarian stromal area to total ovarian area (S/A) ratio for the prediction of biochemical hyperandrogenism in Thai women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). A cross-sectional study was performed in 222 reproductive-aged Thai women with PCOS attending the Gynecologic Endocrinology Unit (GEU), Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital from May 2007 to January 2009. The patients were interviewed for medical history and examined for anthropometry and clinical hyperandrogenism. Venous blood samples were obtained for androgen profiles. An ovarian ultrasonogram was obtained via transvaginal or transrectal ultrasonography. The prevalences of clinical and biochemical hyperandrogenism were 48.6% and 81.1%, respectively. The S/A ratio at a cut-off point of 0.33 had modest predictability for hyperandrogenism, namely, 0.537 area under the receiver-operator curve, 36.6% sensitivity, 72.1% specificity, 83.8% positive predictive value (PPV) and 20.9% negative predictive value (NPV). The combination of clinical hyperandrogenism and S/A ratio improved the predictability for biochemical hyperandrogenism, with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 72.1%, 58.1%, 87.8% and 33.3%, respectively. The S/A ratio alone is not a good predictor for biochemical hyperandrogenism in Thai PCOS women attending GEU for menstrual dysfunction. The combination of S/A ratio and clinical hyperandrogenism has better performance than the S/A ratio alone to predict biochemical hyperandrogenism. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2014 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  5. Predictive value of fever and palmar pallor for P. falciparum parasitaemia in children from an endemic area.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christof David Vinnemeier

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Although the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa is reported to decline and other conditions, causing similar symptoms as clinical malaria are gaining in relevance, presumptive anti-malarial treatment is still common. This study traced for age-dependent signs and symptoms predictive for P. falciparum parasitaemia. METHODS: In total, 5447 visits of 3641 patients between 2-60 months of age who attended an outpatient department (OPD of a rural hospital in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, were analysed. All Children were examined by a paediatrician and a full blood count and thick smear were done. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART model was used to generate a clinical decision tree to predict malarial parasitaemia a7nd predictive values of all symptoms were calculated. RESULTS: Malarial parasitaemia was detected in children between 2-12 months and between 12-60 months of age with a prevalence of 13.8% and 30.6%, respectively. The CART-model revealed age-dependent differences in the ability of the variables to predict parasitaemia. While palmar pallor was the most important symptom in children between 2-12 months, a report of fever and an elevated body temperature of ≥37.5°C gained in relevance in children between 12-60 months. The variable palmar pallor was significantly (p<0.001 associated with lower haemoglobin levels in children of all ages. Compared to the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI algorithm the CART-model had much lower sensitivities, but higher specificities and positive predictive values for a malarial parasitaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Use of age-derived algorithms increases the specificity of the prediction for P. falciparum parasitaemia. The predictive value of palmar pallor should be underlined in health worker training. Due to a lack of sensitivity neither the best algorithm nor palmar pallor as a single sign are eligible for decision-making and cannot replace

  6. User's manual for the Noise 1 area computer program for transportation noise prediction : report under project entitled "area computer model for transportation noise prediction : phase 1 : adaptation of MICNOISE".

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    It was found that the coordinates of the highways required for Noise 1 could be supplied on punched cards by the Photogrammetry Section of the Department. In preparing data for contour plotting, it was found advisable to divide the area into sectors,...

  7. Radon soil gas measurements in a geological versatile region as basis to improve the prediction of areas with a high radon potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabrt, Franz; Rechberger, Fabian; Schuff, Michael; Seidel, Claudia; Baumgartner, Andreas; Friedmann, Harry; Maringer, Franz Josef

    2014-01-01

    With the aim to predict the radon potential by geological data, radon soil gas measurements were made in a selected region in Styria, Austria. This region is characterised by mean indoor radon potentials of 130-280 Bq m -3 and a high geological diversity. The distribution of the individual measuring sites was selected on the basis of geological aspects and the distribution of area settlements. In this work, the radon soil gas activity concentration and the soil permeability were measured at 100 sites, each with three single measurements. Furthermore, the local dose rate was determined and soil samples were taken at each site to determine the activity concentration of natural radionuclides. During two investigation periods, long-term soil gas radon measurements were made to study the time dependency of the radon activity concentration. All the results will be compared and investigated for correlation among each other to improve the prediction of areas with high radon potential. (authors)

  8. Development and evaluation of SBLINE, a suite of models for the prediction of pollution concentrations from vehicles in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Namdeo, A.K.; Colls, J.J. [Environmental Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

    1996-09-06

    The assessment of air quality impacts from roadways is a major concern to urban planners, developers, health officials and engineers. This paper describes the development of a suite of models, called SBLINE, for prediction of pollution concentrations from vehicles in urban road networks. The first component of the suite is ROADFAC, an emission model for calculating emission rates for a road link with known vehicle fleet structure and operational details. ROADFAC can also calculate modal emission rates, caused by deceleration, idle, acceleration and cruise operational modes, by determining queue length and vehicle delay from traffic volume and signal phasing information. The other components of SBLINE are two dispersion models, called NOTLINE and CPB, for prediction of pollution concentrations contributed by different roadlinks in the network. These models use site geometry, meteorology, and traffic emissions calculated by ROADFAC to predict pollutant concentrations. The contribution from a given link is calculated by using NOTLINE if that link is situated in simple topography, or CPB is run if the link is inside a canyon or a cut-section. Finally, cumulative concentrations at any receptor location are calculated by adding the contributions from all roadlinks. SBLINE can be applied to any urban network of roads, with roadlinks located in either simple topography or street canyons. The program has been evaluated in one region of Leicester in the UK. The region represents a typical urban network of roads with some roads located in plain topography and some inside medium size canyons. Observed values of pollutant concentrations are compared with predictions made from detailed measurements of the vehicle population parameters, meteorology, and local street and building topography. Well-established statistical techniques have been used to show the potential of SBLINE for application to other road networks

  9. Etiologies of Acute Undifferentiated Fever and Clinical Prediction of Scrub Typhus in a Non-Tropical Endemic Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Ho-Chul; Chon, Sung-Bin; Oh, Won Sup; Lee, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Ho-Jin

    2015-01-01

    Scrub typhus usually presents as acute undifferentiated fever. This cross-sectional study included adult patients presenting with acute undifferentiated fever defined as any febrile illness for ≤ 14 days without evidence of localized infection. Scrub typhus cases were defined by an antibody titer of a ≥ fourfold increase in paired sera, a ≥ 1:160 in a single serum using indirect immunofluorescence assay, or a positive result of the immunochromatographic test. Multiple regression analysis identified predictors associated with scrub typhus to develop a prediction rule. Of 250 cases with known etiology of acute undifferentiated fever, influenza (28.0%), hepatitis A (25.2%), and scrub typhus (16.4%) were major causes. A prediction rule for identifying suspected cases of scrub typhus consisted of age ≥ 65 years (two points), recent fieldwork/outdoor activities (one point), onset of illness during an outbreak period (two points), myalgia (one point), and eschar (two points). The c statistic was 0.977 (95% confidence interval = 0.960–0.994). At a cutoff value ≥ 4, the sensitivity and specificity were 92.7% (79.0–98.1%) and 90.9% (86.0–94.3%), respectively. Scrub typhus, the third leading cause of acute undifferentiated fever in our region, can be identified early using the prediction rule. PMID:25448236

  10. Sediment bacterial community structures and their predicted functions implied the impacts from natural processes and anthropogenic activities in coastal area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhiguo; Dai, Tianjiao; Tang, Yushi; Tao, Yile; Huang, Bei; Mu, Qinglin; Wen, Donghui

    2018-06-01

    Coastal ecosystem structures and functions are changing under natural and anthropogenic influences. In this study, surface sediment samples were collected from disturbed zone (DZ), near estuary zone (NEZ), and far estuary zone (FEZ) of Hangzhou Bay, one of the most seriously polluted bays in China. The bacterial community structures and predicted functions varied significantly in different zones. Firmicutes were found most abundantly in DZ, highlighting the impacts of anthropogenic activities. Sediment total phosphorus was most influential on the bacterial community structures. Predicted by PICRUSt analysis, DZ significantly exceeded FEZ and NEZ in the subcategory of Xenobiotics Biodegradation and Metabolism; and DZ enriched all the nitrate reduction related genes, except nrfA gene. Seawater salinity and inorganic nitrogen, respectively as the representative natural and anthropogenic factor, performed exact-oppositely in nitrogen metabolism functions. The changes of bacterial community compositions and predicted functions provide a new insight into human-induced pollution impacts on coastal ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Developing a Topographic Model to Predict the Northern Hardwood Forest Type within Carolina Northern Flying Squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus Recovery Areas of the Southern Appalachians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Evans

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The northern hardwood forest type is an important habitat component for the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel (CNFS; Glaucomys sabrinus coloratus for den sites and corridor habitats between boreo-montane conifer patches foraging areas. Our study related terrain data to presence of northern hardwood forest type in the recovery areas of CNFS in the southern Appalachian Mountains of western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwestern Virginia. We recorded overstory species composition and terrain variables at 338 points, to construct a robust, spatially predictive model. Terrain variables analyzed included elevation, aspect, slope gradient, site curvature, and topographic exposure. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess seven models based on associations noted in existing literature as well as an inclusive global model. Our results indicate that, on a regional scale, elevation, aspect, and topographic exposure index (TEI are significant predictors of the presence of the northern hardwood forest type in the southern Appalachians. Our elevation + TEI model was the best approximating model (the lowest AICc score for predicting northern hardwood forest type correctly classifying approximately 78% of our sample points. We then used these data to create region-wide predictive maps of the distribution of the northern hardwood forest type within CNFS recovery areas.

  12. Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Wolf (Canis lupus Breeding Areas in a Mountainous Region of Central Italy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Bassi

    Full Text Available Wolves (Canis lupus in Italy represent a relict west European population. They are classified as vulnerable by IUCN, though have increased in number and expanded their range in recent decades. Here we use 17 years of monitoring data (from 1993 to 2010 collected in a mountainous region of central Italy (Arezzo, Tuscany in an ecological niche-based model (MaxEnt to characterize breeding sites (i.e. the areas where pups were raised within home ranges, as detected from play-back responses. From a suite of variables related to topography, habitat and human disturbance we found that elevation and distance to protected areas were most important in explaining the locality of wolf responses. Rendezvous sites (family play-back response sites typically occurred between 800 and 1200 m a.s.l., inside protected areas, and were usually located along mountain chains distant from human settlements and roads. In these areas human disturbance is low and the densities of ungulates are typically high. Over recent years, rendezvous sites have occurred closer to urban areas as the wolf population has continued to expand, despite the consequent human disturbance. This suggests that undisturbed landscapes may be reaching their carrying capacity for wolves. This, in turn, may lead to the potential for increased human-wolf interactions in future. Applying our model, both within and beyond the species' current range, we identify sites both within the current range and also further afield, that the species could occupy in future. Our work underlines the importance of the present protected areas network in facilitating the recolonisation by wolves. Our projections of suitability of sites for future establishment as the population continues to expand could inform planning to minimize future wolf-human conflicts.

  13. Evaluating prediction uncertainty of areas contributing recharge to well fields of multiple water suppliers in the Hunt-Annaquatucket-Pettaquamscutt River Basins, Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friesz, Paul J.

    2012-01-01

    Three river basins in central Rhode Island-the Hunt River, the Annaquatucket River, and the Pettaquamscutt River-contain 15 production wells clustered in 4 pumping centers from which drinking water is withdrawn. These high-capacity production wells, operated by three water suppliers, are screened in coarse-grained deposits of glacial origin. The risk of contaminating water withdrawn by these well centers may be reduced if the areas contributing recharge to the well centers are delineated and these areas protected from land uses that may affect the water quality. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Health, began an investigation in 2009 to improve the understanding of groundwater flow and delineate areas contributing recharge to the well centers as part of an effort to protect the source of water to these well centers. A groundwater-flow model was calibrated by inverse modeling using nonlinear regression to obtain the optimal set of parameter values, which provide a single, best representation of the area contributing recharge to a well center. Summary statistics from the calibrated model were used to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predicted areas contributing recharge to the well centers. This uncertainty analysis was done so that the contributing areas to the well centers would not be underestimated, thereby leaving the well centers inadequately protected. The analysis led to contributing areas expressed as a probability distribution (probabilistic contributing areas) that differ from a single or deterministic contributing area. Groundwater flow was simulated in the surficial deposits and the underlying bedrock in the 47-square-mile study area. Observations (165 groundwater levels and 7 base flows) provided sufficient information to estimate parameters representing recharge and horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the glacial deposits and hydraulic conductance of streambeds. The calibrated value for recharge

  14. Pharmacogenetics-based area-under-curve model can predict efficacy and adverse events from axitinib in individual patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Yoshiaki; Tsunedomi, Ryouichi; Fujita, Yusuke; Otori, Toru; Ohba, Mitsuyoshi; Kawai, Yoshihisa; Hirata, Hiroshi; Matsumoto, Hiroaki; Haginaka, Jun; Suzuki, Shigeo; Dahiya, Rajvir; Hamamoto, Yoshihiko; Matsuyama, Kenji; Hazama, Shoichi; Nagano, Hiroaki; Matsuyama, Hideyasu

    2018-03-30

    We investigated the relationship between axitinib pharmacogenetics and clinical efficacy/adverse events in advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and established a model to predict clinical efficacy and adverse events using pharmacokinetic and gene polymorphisms related to drug metabolism and efflux in a phase II trial. We prospectively evaluated the area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) of axitinib, objective response rate, and adverse events in 44 consecutive advanced RCC patients treated with axitinib. To establish a model for predicting clinical efficacy and adverse events, polymorphisms in genes including ABC transporters ( ABCB1 and ABCG2 ), UGT1A , and OR2B11 were analyzed by whole-exome sequencing, Sanger sequencing, and DNA microarray. To validate this prediction model, calculated AUC by 6 gene polymorphisms was compared with actual AUC in 16 additional consecutive patients prospectively. Actual AUC significantly correlated with the objective response rate ( P = 0.0002) and adverse events (hand-foot syndrome, P = 0.0055; and hypothyroidism, P = 0.0381). Calculated AUC significantly correlated with actual AUC ( P treatment precisely predicted actual AUC after axitinib treatment ( P = 0.0066). Our pharmacogenetics-based AUC prediction model may determine the optimal initial dose of axitinib, and thus facilitate better treatment of patients with advanced RCC.

  15. Assessment of models predicting irradiation effects on tensile properties of reactor pressure vessel steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pineau, L.; Landron, C.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an analysis of tensile data acquired as part of the French Reactor Vessel Surveillance Program (RVSP) is produced. This program contains amongst other mechanical tests, tensile tests at 20 and 300 C degrees on non irradiated base metals and at 300 C degrees only on irradiated materials. It shows that irradiation leads to an increase in the yield strength and a decrease in the strain hardening. The exploitation of tensile results has permitted to express a relationship between yield strength increase measured and fluence value, as well as between strain hardening decrease and yield strength evolution. The use of these relations in the aim at predicting evolution of tensile properties with irradiation has then permitted to propose a methodology to model entire stress-strain curves of irradiated base metal only based on the non irradiated stress-strain curve. These predictions were successfully compared with an experimental standard case. (authors)

  16. Tritium monitoring in groundwater and evaluation of model predictions for the Hanford Site 200 Area Effluent Treatment Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnett, D.B.; Bergeron, M.P.; Cole, C.R.; Freshley, M.D.; Wurstner, S.K.

    1997-08-01

    The Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF) disposal site, also known as the State-Approved Land Disposal Site (SALDS), receives treated effluent containing tritium, which is allowed to infiltrate through the soil column to the water table. Tritium was first detected in groundwater monitoring wells around the facility in July 1996. The SALDS groundwater monitoring plan requires revision of a predictive groundwater model and reevaluation of the monitoring well network one year from the first detection of tritium in groundwater. This document is written primarily to satisfy these requirements and to report on analytical results for tritium in the SALDS groundwater monitoring network through April 1997. The document also recommends an approach to continued groundwater monitoring for tritium at the SALDS. Comparison of numerical groundwater models applied over the last several years indicate that earlier predictions, which show tritium from the SALDS approaching the Columbia River, were too simplified or overly robust in source assumptions. The most recent modeling indicates that concentrations of tritium above 500 pCi/L will extend, at most, no further than ∼1.5 km from the facility, using the most reasonable projections of ETF operation. This extent encompasses only the wells in the current SALDS tritium-tracking network

  17. Bioavailability of elemental iron powders to rats is less than bakery-grade ferrous sulfate and predicted by iron solubility and particle surface area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swain, James H; Newman, Samuel M; Hunt, Janet R

    2003-11-01

    Foods are fortified with elemental forms of iron to reduce iron deficiency. However, the nutritional efficacy of current, commercially produced elemental iron powders has not been verified. We determined the bioavailability of six commercial elemental iron powders and examined how physicochemistry influences bioavailability. Relative biological value (RBV) of the iron powders was determined using a hemoglobin repletion/slope ratio method, treating iron-deficient rats with repletion diets fortified with graded quantities of iron powders, bakery-grade ferrous sulfate or no added iron. Iron powders were assessed physicochemically by measuring iron solubility in hydrochloric acid at pH 1.0 and 1.7, surface area by nitrogen gas adsorption and surface microstructure by electron microscopy. Bioavailability from the iron powders, based on absolute iron intake, was significantly less than from FeSO4 (100%; P Electrolytic (54%; A-131, U.S.) > Electrolytic (46%; Electrolytic Iron, India) > H-Reduced (42%; AC-325, U.S.) > Reduced (24%; ATOMET 95SP, Canada) > CO-Reduced (21%; RSI-325, Sweden). Solubility testing of the iron powders resulted in different relative rankings and better RBV predictability with increasing time at pH 1.7 (R2 = 0.65 at 150 min). The prediction was improved with less time and lower pH (R2 = 0.82, pH 1.0 at 30 min). Surface area, ranging from 90 to 370 m2/kg, was also highly predictive of RBV (R2 = 0.80). Bioavailability of iron powders is less than bakery-grade ferrous sulfate and varies up to three times among different commercial forms. Solubility at pH 1.0 and surface area were predictive of iron bioavailability in rats.

  18. Prediction of the competitive effects of weeds on crop yields based on the relative leaf area of weeds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lotz, L. A. P.; Christensen, Svend; Cloutier, D.

    1996-01-01

    . alba whereas the density model did not. A parameter that allows the maximum yield loss to be smaller than 100% was mostly not needed to describe the effects of weed competition. The parameter that denotes the competitiveness of the weed species with respect to the crop decreased the later the relative......For implementation of simple yield loss models into threshold-based weed management systems, a thorough validation is needed over a great diversity of sites. Yield losses by competition wsth Sinapis alba L. (white mustard) as a model weed, were studied in 12 experiments in sugar beet (Beta vulgaris...... L.) and in 11 experiments in spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Most data sets were heller described by a model based on the relative leaf area of the weed than by a hyperbolic model based on weed density. This leaf area model accounted for (part of) the effect of different emerging times of the S...

  19. GIS-BASED EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL SITUATION IN THE COAL MINING AREAS WITH A CRITICAL TECHNOGENIC IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Pyankov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights the features of the creation of the basin GIS, developed to support the environmental monitoring, assessment and forecasting of negative consequences in the areas of technogenic disaster (on the example of abandoned Kizel coal basin, located in Perm Region, Russia. The world experience of applying GIS-technologies for solving environmental problems of coal-mining regions is also being discussed. The information basis and structure of the cartographic and attributive database of the Kizel coal basin GIS are presented. The main tasks of creating the GIS, including inventory of man-made impact sources, identification of the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of pollutants, quantification and mapping of the territory ecological status, forecasting of the environmental situation and planning of environmental measures have been identified. A system of spatial criteria for the integrated assessment of the territory ecological status within coal basins is proposed, which will allow monitoring of environmental changes and identifying areas with the critical environmental situation. These criteria include the pH value and the sulfates concentration in the streams, the complex of heavy metals, the species composition of microorganisms in surface waters, the area of degraded land and dead forest stands. The degree of negative impact of the abandoned coal mines on streams and groundwater is described, and the priority pollutants are identified.The estimates of the extent of contaminated streams, as well as areas of potential contamination of floodplain lands have been obtained using LANDSAT satellite imagery data. The significance of the creation of the algorithms for the integration of heterogeneous spatial information (ground-based and remote sensing observations for compiling synthetic maps that objectively estimate the ecological situation has been noted. 

  20. Deep Learning Predicts Correlation between a Functional Signature of Higher Visual Areas and Sparse Firing of Neurons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengxu Zhuang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Visual information in the visual cortex is processed in a hierarchical manner. Recent studies show that higher visual areas, such as V2, V3, and V4, respond more vigorously to images with naturalistic higher-order statistics than to images lacking them. This property is a functional signature of higher areas, as it is much weaker or even absent in the primary visual cortex (V1. However, the mechanism underlying this signature remains elusive. We studied this problem using computational models. In several typical hierarchical visual models including the AlexNet, VggNet, and SHMAX, this signature was found to be prominent in higher layers but much weaker in lower layers. By changing both the model structure and experimental settings, we found that the signature strongly correlated with sparse firing of units in higher layers but not with any other factors, including model structure, training algorithm (supervised or unsupervised, receptive field size, and property of training stimuli. The results suggest an important role of sparse neuronal activity underlying this special feature of higher visual areas.

  1. Fatigue-creep life prediction for a notched specimen of 2[1]/[4]Cr-1Mo steel at 600 C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Tatsuo; Sakane, Masao; Fukuda, Yoshio; Igari, Toshihide; Miyahara, Mitsuo; Okazaki, Masakazu

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the life prediction of 2[1]/[4]Cr-1Mo notched specimens subjected to fast-fast, slow-slow and hold-time loadings at 600 C. The crack initiation lives of notched specimens were estimated based on the local stress-strain calculated by inelastic finite element analyses. For the life prediction, combinations of seven different constitutive models and five fatigue-creep damage laws were used. The applicability of the constitutive model and damage law is discussed. The constitutive models predict similar stress-strain relations at the notch root, leading to similar predicted lives. The damage model, however, has a much larger influence on the life prediction. ((orig.))

  2. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunrong Mi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species distribution models (SDMs have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane (Grus monacha, n = 33, White-naped Crane (Grus vipio, n = 40, and Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis, n = 75 in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model, Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models. In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC and true skill statistic (TSS were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  3. Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas? Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Chunrong; Huettmann, Falk; Guo, Yumin; Han, Xuesong; Wen, Lijia

    2017-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool in ecology, biogeography, evolution and, more recently, in conservation biology. How to generalize species distributions in large undersampled areas, especially with few samples, is a fundamental issue of SDMs. In order to explore this issue, we used the best available presence records for the Hooded Crane ( Grus monacha , n  = 33), White-naped Crane ( Grus vipio , n  = 40), and Black-necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis , n  = 75) in China as three case studies, employing four powerful and commonly used machine learning algorithms to map the breeding distributions of the three species: TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting, Boosted Regression Tree Model), Random Forest, CART (Classification and Regression Tree) and Maxent (Maximum Entropy Models). In addition, we developed an ensemble forecast by averaging predicted probability of the above four models results. Commonly used model performance metrics (Area under ROC (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS)) were employed to evaluate model accuracy. The latest satellite tracking data and compiled literature data were used as two independent testing datasets to confront model predictions. We found Random Forest demonstrated the best performance for the most assessment method, provided a better model fit to the testing data, and achieved better species range maps for each crane species in undersampled areas. Random Forest has been generally available for more than 20 years and has been known to perform extremely well in ecological predictions. However, while increasingly on the rise, its potential is still widely underused in conservation, (spatial) ecological applications and for inference. Our results show that it informs ecological and biogeographical theories as well as being suitable for conservation applications, specifically when the study area is undersampled. This method helps to save model-selection time and effort, and allows robust and rapid

  4. Bridging the gap between traffic generated health stressors in urban areas: Predicting xylene levels in EU cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlachokostas, Ch.; Michailidou, A.V.; Spyridi, D.; Moussiopoulos, N.

    2013-01-01

    Many citizens live, work, commute, or visit traffic intensive spaces and are exposed to high levels of chemical health stressors. However, urban conurbations worldwide present monitoring “shortage” – due to economical and/or practical constraints – for toxic stressors such as xylene isomers, which can pose human health risks. This “shortage” may be covered by the establishment of associations between rarely monitored substances such as xylenes and more frequently monitored (i.e. benzene) or usually monitored (i.e. CO). Regression analysis is used and strong statistical relationships are detected. The adopted models are applied to EU cities and comparison between measurements and predictions depicts their representativeness. The analysis provides transferability insights in an effort to bridge the gap between traffic-related stressors. Strong associations between substances of the air pollution mixture may be influential to interpret the complexity of the causal chain, especially if a synergetic exposure assessment in traffic intensive spaces is considered. -- Highlights: •EU cities present monitoring shortage for health stressors such as xylenes. •The multi-stressor multi-city stepwise regression modelling approach is presented. •Strong linear relationships between xylenes and toluene, benzene, CO are detected. •Modelling results are in good agreement with the respective available measurements. •Toluene seems the optimal marker to predict xylene trends in traffic environments. -- The multi-stressor, multi-city stepwise regression modelling approach develops reliable statistical associations which capture m,p-xylene and o-xylene trends in EU traffic intensive environments

  5. Watershed Modeling with ArcSWAT and SUFI2 In Cisadane Catchment Area: Calibration and Validation of River Flow Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwan Ridwansyah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Increasing of natural resources utilization as a result of population growth and economic development has caused severe damage on the watershed. The impacts of natural disasters such as floods, landslides and droughts become more frequent. Cisadane Catchment Area is one of 108 priority watershed in Indonesia. SWAT is currently applied world wide and considered as a versatile model that can be used to integrate multiple environmental processes, which support more effective watershed management and the development of better informed policy decision. The objective of this study is to examine the applicability of SWAT model for modeling mountainous catchments, focusing on Cisadane catchment Area in west Java Province, Indonesia. The SWAT model simulation was done for the periods of 2005 – 2010 while it used landuse information in 2009. Methods of Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2 (SUFI2 and combine with manual calibration were used in this study to calibrate a rainfall-runoff. The Calibration is done on 2007 and the validation on 2009, the R2 and Nash Sutchliffe Efficiency (NSE of the calibration were 0.71 and 0.72 respectively and the validation are 0.708 and 0.7 respectively. The monthly average of surface runoff and total water yield from the simulation were 27.7 mm and 2718.4 mm respectively. This study showed SWAT model can be a potential monitoring tool especially for watersheds in Cisadane Catchment Area or in the tropical regions. The model can be used for another purpose, especially in watershed management.

  6. Viscoplastic equations incorporated into a finite element model to predict deformation behavior of irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yuanyuan, E-mail: 630wyy@163.com [Key Laboratory of Materials Modification by Laser, Ion and Electron Beams (Ministry of Education), Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Zhao, Jijun, E-mail: zhaojj@dlut.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Materials Modification by Laser, Ion and Electron Beams (Ministry of Education), Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Zhang, Chi [Key Laboratory of Advanced Materials of Ministry of Education, School of Materials Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2017-05-15

    Highlights: • The initial internal variable in the Anand model is modified by considering both temperature and irradiation dose. • The tensile stress-strain response is examined and analyzed under different temperatures and irradiation doses. • Yield strengths are predicted as functions of strain rate, temperature and irradiation dose. - Abstract: The viscoplastic equations with a modified initial internal variable are implemented into the finite element code to investigate stress-strain response and irradiation hardening of the materials under increased temperature and at different levels of irradiated dose. We applied this model to Mod 9Cr-1Mo steel. The predicted results are validated by the experimentally measured data. Furthermore, they show good agreement with the previous data from a constitutive crystal plasticity model in account of dislocation and interstitial loops. Three previous hardening models for predicting the yield strength of the material are discussed and compared with our simulation results.

  7. Genetic effects of radiation and prediction of hereditary pathology of population of areas around the former Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigaliev, A.B.

    1998-01-01

    Epidemiological analysis of diseases and mortality of the population living in areas around Semipalatinsk test site is not only theoretically interesting in terms of the human being genetics, but is important for the health-care in practice, since it allows correct planning the score of medical social aid to the sick people and their families, including measures. Assessment of posterior consequences of low dose radiation effect on health of the population of the areas around the former Semipalatinsk nuclear test site is of special interest. Many underground, atmospheric and above-ground tests of nuclear weapon resulted in a significant increase of the oncologic and blood diseases rate among several generations of the effected people. Moreover, consequences of the above-ground and atmospheric tests of nuclear and hydrogen weapon will show up in the next century, taking into account the fact that the 'open' tests were ceased only at the middle of 60-th. The birth rate of children with the inherent intelligence defects was determined according to the accounting records of the new-born children within 1986-1992 years. Analysis of perinatal mortality was carried out based on the records on autopsy within 1985-1992 years. The two-fold increase of the onco diseases rate was revealed among children. The rate of spontaneous aborts in the Eginbulak district was 9.99% and exceeded the average rate in the region and indexes of other regions

  8. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Groundwater and River Sediment: A Case Study of a Typical Agricultural Irrigation Area in Northeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The areas with typical municipal sewage discharge river and irrigation water function were selected as study sites in northeast China. The samples from groundwater and river sediment in this area were collected for the concentrations and forms of heavy metals (Cr(VI, Cd, As, and Pb analysis. The risk assessment of heavy metal pollution was conducted based on single-factor pollution index (I and Nemerow pollution index (NI. The results showed that only one groundwater sampling site reached a polluted level of heavy metals. There was a high potential ecological risk of Cd on the N21-2 sampling site in river sediment. The morphological analysis results of heavy metals in sediment showed that the release of heavy metals can be inferred as one of the main pollution sources of groundwater. In addition, the changes in the concentration and migration scope of As were predicted by using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS. The predicted results showed that As will migrate downstream in the next decade, and the changing trend of As polluted areas was changed with As content districts because of some pump wells downstream to form groundwater depression cone, which made the solute transfer upstream.

  9. Risk Assessment and Prediction of Heavy Metal Pollution in Groundwater and River Sediment: A Case Study of a Typical Agricultural Irrigation Area in Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Shuang; Geng, Hui; Zhang, Fengjun; Liu, Zhaoying; Wang, Tianye; Song, Boyu

    2015-01-01

    The areas with typical municipal sewage discharge river and irrigation water function were selected as study sites in northeast China. The samples from groundwater and river sediment in this area were collected for the concentrations and forms of heavy metals (Cr(VI), Cd, As, and Pb) analysis. The risk assessment of heavy metal pollution was conducted based on single-factor pollution index (I) and Nemerow pollution index (NI). The results showed that only one groundwater sampling site reached a polluted level of heavy metals. There was a high potential ecological risk of Cd on the N21-2 sampling site in river sediment. The morphological analysis results of heavy metals in sediment showed that the release of heavy metals can be inferred as one of the main pollution sources of groundwater. In addition, the changes in the concentration and migration scope of As were predicted by using the Groundwater Modeling System (GMS). The predicted results showed that As will migrate downstream in the next decade, and the changing trend of As polluted areas was changed with As content districts because of some pump wells downstream to form groundwater depression cone, which made the solute transfer upstream. PMID:26366176

  10. Allometric Models to Predict Aboveground Woody Biomass of Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L. in Short Rotation Coppice in Previous Mining and Agricultural Areas in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christin Carl

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Black locust is a drought-resistant tree species with high biomass productivity during juvenility; it is able to thrive on wastelands, such as former brown coal fields and dry agricultural areas. However, research conducted on this species in such areas is limited. This paper aims to provide a basis for predicting tree woody biomass for black locust based on tree, competition, and site variables at 14 sites in northeast Germany that were previously utilized for mining or agriculture. The study areas, which are located in an area covering 320 km × 280 km, are characterized by a variety of climatic and soil conditions. Influential variables, including tree parameters, competition, and climatic parameters were considered. Allometric biomass models were employed. The findings show that the most important parameters are tree and competition variables. Different former land utilizations, such as mining or agriculture, as well as growth by cores or stumps, significantly influenced aboveground woody biomass production. The new biomass models developed as part of this study can be applied to calculate woody biomass production and carbon sequestration of Robinia pseudoacacia L. in short rotation coppices in previous mining and agricultural areas.

  11. Predicting small mammal and flea abundance using landform and soil properties in a plague endemic area in Lushoto District, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meliyo, Joel L; Kimaro, Didas N; Msanya, Balthazar M; Mulungu, Loth S; Hieronimo, Proches; Kihupi, Nganga I; Gulinck, Hubert; Deckers, Jozef A

    2014-07-01

    Small mammals particularly rodents, are considered the primary natural hosts of plague. Literature suggests that plague persistence in natural foci has a root cause in soils. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between on the one hand landforms and associated soil properties, and on the other hand small mammals and fleas in West Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, a plague endemic area. Standard field survey methods coupled with Geographical Information System (GIS) technique were used to examine landform and soils characteristics. Soil samples were analysed in the laboratory for physico-chemical properties. Small mammals were trapped on pre-established landform positions and identified to genus/species level. Fleas were removed from the trapped small mammals and counted. Exploration of landform and soil data was done using ArcGIS Toolbox functions and descriptive statistical analysis. The relationships between landforms, soils, small mammals and fleas were established by generalised linear regression model (GLM) operated in R statistics software. Results show that landforms and soils influence the abundance of small mammals and fleas and their spatial distribution. The abundance of small mammals and fleas increased with increase in elevation. Small mammal species richness also increases with elevation. A landform-soil model shows that available phosphorus, slope aspect and elevation were statistically significant predictors explaining richness and abundance of small mammals. Fleas' abundance and spatial distribution were influenced by hill-shade, available phosphorus and base saturation. The study suggests that landforms and soils have a strong influence on the richness and evenness of small mammals and their fleas' abundance hence could be used to explain plague dynamics in the area.

  12. Deformation in volcanic areas: a numerical approach for their prediction in Teide volcano (Tenerife, Canary Islands); Deformaciones en areas volcanicas: una aproximacin numerica para su prediccion en el volcan Teide (Tenerife, Islas Canarias)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charco, M.; Galan del Sastre, P.

    2011-07-01

    Active volcanic areas study comprises both, observation of physical changes in the natural media and the interpretation of such changes. Nowadays, the application of spatial geodetic techniques, such as GPS (Global Positioning System) or InSAR (Interferometry with Synthetic Aperture Radar), for deformation understanding in volcanic areas, revolutionizes our view of this geodetic signals. Deformation of the Earth's surface reflects tectonic, magmatic and hydrothermal processes at depth. In this way, the prediction of volcanic deformation through physical modelling provides a link between the observation and depth interior processes that could be crucial for volcanic hazards assessment. In this work, we develop a numerical model for elastic deformation study. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is used for the implementation of the numerical model. FEM allows to take into account different morphology, structural characteristics and the mechanical heterogeneities of the medium. Numerical simulations of deformation in Tenerife (Canary Islands) taking into account different medium hypothesis allow us to conclude that the accuracy of the predictions depends on how well the natural system is described. (Author) 22 refs.

  13. Expert evaluation and prediction of the radioecological state of the environment in the area of the radiation plume from the Chernobyl' nuclear power station (aquatic ecosystems)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    On the basis of experimental data on radionuclide distribution in the components of the aquatic ecosystems within and outside the 30 km zone around the Chernobyl power plant after the reactor accident the exposure doses for aquatic organisms in the area of the radiation plume have been estimated. In the Kiev reservoir the predicted exposure doses for most aquatic organisms do not exceed 0.1-1.0 mrad/h, in the river Pripyat' the exposure doses for fish are about 50 mrad/h and in the cooling pond of the Chernobyl power station the highest exposure doses, up to 5 rad/h in a number of locations were registered

  14. Fatigue methodology for life predictions for the wheel-rail contact area in large offshore turret bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Lassen

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The present report presents a fatigue life prediction method for large roller bearings applied in the turret turn table for large loading buoy units. The contact points between wheel and rail in these bearings are subjected to a multi-axial fluctuating stress situation and both surface wear and fatigue cracking may occur. A methodology based on the Dang Van fatigue criterion is adopted. The criterion is based on an equivalent stress defined as a combination of the fluctuation of the shear stress from its mean value at a critical plane and the associated hydrostatic stress at the given time. The present work is supporting the theoretical model by extensive laboratory testing. Both full scale testing of wheel on rail and small scale testing for characterizing the steel material are carried out. An experimental program was carried out with the high strength stainless steel S165M. The Dang Van stress concept is applied in combination with the Random Fatigue Limit Method (RFLM for life data analyses. This approach gives the opportunity to include both finite lives and the run-outs in a rational manner without any presumption of the existence of a fatigue limit in advance of the data. This gives a non-linear S-N curve for a log-log scale in the very high cycle regime close to the fatigue limit. It is demonstrated how the scatter in fatigue limit decreases when the Dang Van stress concept is applied and that the fatigue limit is occurring beyond 107 cycles

  15. A case history of using high-resolution LiDAR data to support archaeological prediction models in a low-relief area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacskó, Vivien; Székely, Balázs; Stibrányi, Máté; Koma, Zsófia

    2016-04-01

    Hungary is situated in the crossroad of several large-scale infrastructural pathways like transnational pipelines and transcontinental motorways. At the same time the country is rich in known and potential archaeological sites. Archaeological prediction techniques aided by remote sensing are intended to help increase preparedness for archaeological surveying and rescue activities in response to planned new infrastructural developments (e.g., a new pipeline), as they try to estimate the number of potential archaeological sites, area to be surveyed, potential cost and time needed for these activities. In very low-relief areas microtopographic forms may indicate sites, high-resolution LiDAR DTMs are suitable for their detection. Main sources of archaeological prediction models are known archaeological sites, where optimal environmental conditions of settling down existed at historic ages. Hydrological characteristics, relief, geology, vegetation cover and soil are considered to be as most important natural factors. Sorting of the factors and accuracy of the sampling differentiate our models. Resolution of an inductive model depends on the spatial properties of the integrated data: a raster data set can be generated that contains probability values and the reliability of the estimation. The information content of the predictive model is highly influenced by the resolution of the used digital terrain model (DTM): its derivatives (slope, aspect, topographic features) are important inputs of the modelling. The quality of the DTM is even more important in low-relief areas as microtopographic features may indicate archaeological sites. The conventional digital elevation models (SRTM, ASTER GDEM) provide unsatisfying resolution (both in horizontal and vertical senses) as they are rather digital surface models containing the vegetation and the built-up structures. Processed multiecho LiDAR data can be used instead. Our study area is situated in the foothills of the

  16. Sensitivity of the UAM-predicted ozone concentrations to wind fields in the New York metropolitan area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sistla, G.; Ku, J.Y.; Zhou, N.; Hao, W.; Rao, S.T. [New York State Dept. of Environmental Conservation, Albany, NY (United States); Thunis, P. [ISPRA Establishment (Italy); Bornstein, R.; Freedman, F. [San Jose State Univ., CA (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The New York airshed modeling domain, extending from northern Philadelphia, PA to the southern Massachusetts, is part of the large urban corridor stretching from Virginia to Maine alone the eastern sea-board of United States. Due to the continued non-attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone, the area has been designated to be in the {open_quotes}severe{close_quotes} classification under the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. This requires demonstration of compliance with the ozone NAAQS with grid-based photochemical models such as the Urban Airshed Model (UAM). The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has recommended the use of a one-way model nesting scheme, with the Regional Oxidant Model (ROM) providing initial and boundary conditions and other ancillary data for the UAM. Meteorological data and emissions data can also be developed by alternative methods for use with UAM, if considered more appropriate than those derived from the ROM-UAM system.

  17. Do Childhood Adversities Predict Suicidality? Findings from the General Population of the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Mendonça Coêlho

    Full Text Available Childhood adversities have been associated with a number of medical and psychiatric outcomes. However, the reported effects that specific childhood adversities have on suicidality vary across studies.This was a cross-sectional, stratified, multistage area probability investigation of a general population in Brazil, designated the São Paulo Megacity Mental Health Survey. The World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview was applied in 5037 individuals ≥ 18 years of age, in order to assess 12 different adversities occurring during childhood and/or adolescence, as well as to look for associations between those adversities and subsequent suicidality in different age strata.Over half of the respondents reported at least one childhood adversity. Only physical abuse was consistently associated with suicide attempts in all subsequent life stages (OR = 2.1. Among adults 20-29 years of age, the likelihood of a suicide attempt was correlated with parental divorce, whereas suicidal ideation was associated with prior sexual abuse. Among adults over 30 years of age, physical illness and economic adversity emerged as relevant childhood adversities associated with suicide attempts, whereas sexual abuse, family violence, and economic adversity were associated with suicidal ideation.Childhood adversities, especially physical abuse, are likely associated with unfavorable consequences in subsequent years. For suicidality across a lifespan, the role of different childhood adversities must be examined independently.

  18. Application of State of Art Modeling Techniques to Predict Flooding and Waves for an Exposed Coastal Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. Spaulding

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs are developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA to provide guidance in establishing the risk to structures and infrastructure in the coastal zone from storm surge and coincidental waves. The maps are used by state agencies and municipalities to help guide coastal planning and establish the minimum elevation standard for new or substantially improved structures. A summary of the methods used and results of 2012 FIRM mapping are presented for Charlestown, RI; a coastal community located along the exposed, southern shoreline of the state. Concerns with the methods used in the 2012 analysis are put in context with the National Research Council’s (NRC 2009 review of the FEMA coastal mapping program. New mapping is then performed using state of the art, fully coupled surge and wave modeling and data analysis methods to address the concerns in the NRC review. The new maps and methodologies are in compliance with FEMA regulations and guidelines. The approach makes extensive use of the numerical modeling results from the recent US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE, North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS 2015. Revised flood maps are presented and compared with the 2012 FIRM map to provide insight into the differences. The new maps highlight the importance of developing better estimates of offshore surge dynamics and its coupling to waves, dune erosion based on local observations, and the advancement in nearshore mapping of waves in flood inundated areas by the use of state of the art, two-dimensional wave transformation models.

  19. Numerical Prediction of the Influence of Process Parameters on Large Area Diamond Deposition by DC Arcjet with ARC Roots Rotating and Operating at Gas Recycling Mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, F. X.; Huang, T. B.; Tang, W. Z.; Song, J. H.; Tong, Y. M.

    A computer model have been set up for simulation of the flow and temperature field, and the radial distribution of atomic hydrogen and active carbonaceous species over a large area substrate surface for a new type dc arc plasma torch with rotating arc roots and operating at gas recycling mode A gas recycling radio of 90% was assumed. In numerical calculation of plasma chemistry, the Thermal-Calc program and a powerful thermodynamic database were employed. Numerical calculations to the computer model were performed using boundary conditions close to the experimental setup for large area diamond films deposition. The results showed that the flow and temperature field over substrate surface of Φ60-100mm were smooth and uniform. Calculations were also made with plasma of the same geometry but no arc roots rotation. It was clearly demonstrated that the design of rotating arc roots was advantageous for high quality uniform deposition of large area diamond films. Theoretical predictions on growth rate and film quality as well as their radial uniformity, and the influence of process parameters on large area diamond deposition were discussed in detail based on the spatial distribution of atomic hydrogen and the carbonaceous species in the plasma over the substrate surface obtained from thermodynamic calculations of plasma chemistry, and were compared with experimental observations.

  20. Displacement prediction of Baijiabao landslide based on empirical mode decomposition and long short-term memory neural network in Three Gorges area, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shiluo; Niu, Ruiqing

    2018-02-01

    Every year, landslides pose huge threats to thousands of people in China, especially those in the Three Gorges area. It is thus necessary to establish an early warning system to help prevent property damage and save peoples' lives. Most of the landslide displacement prediction models that have been proposed are static models. However, landslides are dynamic systems. In this paper, the total accumulative displacement of the Baijiabao landslide is divided into trend and periodic components using empirical mode decomposition. The trend component is predicted using an S-curve estimation, and the total periodic component is predicted using a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). LSTM is a dynamic model that can remember historical information and apply it to the current output. Six triggering factors are chosen to predict the periodic term using the Pearson cross-correlation coefficient and mutual information. These factors include the cumulative precipitation during the previous month, the cumulative precipitation during a two-month period, the reservoir level during the current month, the change in the reservoir level during the previous month, the cumulative increment of the reservoir level during the current month, and the cumulative displacement during the previous month. When using one-step-ahead prediction, LSTM yields a root mean squared error (RMSE) value of 6.112 mm, while the support vector machine for regression (SVR) and the back-propagation neural network (BP) yield values of 10.686 mm and 8.237 mm, respectively. Meanwhile, the Elman network (Elman) yields an RMSE value of 6.579 mm. In addition, when using multi-step-ahead prediction, LSTM obtains an RMSE value of 8.648 mm, while SVR, BP and the Elman network obtains RSME values of 13.418 mm, 13.014 mm, and 13.370 mm. The predicted results indicate that, to some extent, the dynamic model (LSTM) achieves results that are more accurate than those of the static models (i.e., SVR and BP). LSTM even

  1. Comparison of peak flow velocity through the left ventricular outflow tract and effective orifice area indexed to body surface area in Golden Retriever puppies to predict development of subaortic stenosis in adult dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javard, Romain; Bélanger, Marie-Claude; Côté, Etienne; Beauchamp, Guy; Pibarot, Philippe

    2014-12-15

    To evaluate the usefulness of Doppler-derived peak flow velocity through the left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT Vmax) and effective orifice area indexed to body surface area (EOAi) in puppies to predict development of subaortic stenosis (SAS) in the same dogs as adults. Prospective, longitudinal, observational study. 38 Golden Retrievers. Cardiac auscultation and echocardiography were performed on 2- to 6-month-old puppies, then repeated at 12 to 18 months. Subaortic stenosis was diagnosed when LVOT Vmax was ≥ 2.3 m/s in adult dogs with left basilar systolic murmurs. All puppies with EOAi 2.3 m/s in puppyhood was 63% sensitive and 100% specific for SAS in adulthood. In puppies, LVOT Vmax was more strongly associated with a future diagnosis of SAS (area under the curve [AUC], 0.89) than was EOAi (AUC, 0.80). In puppies, the combination of LVOT Vmax and EOAi yielded slightly higher sensitivity (69%) and specificity (100%) for adult SAS than did LVOT Vmax alone. In unaffected and affected dogs, LVOT Vmax increased significantly from puppyhood to adulthood but EOAi did not. In Golden Retriever puppies, LVOT Vmax > 2.3 m/s and EOAi < 1.46 cm(2)/m(2) were both associated with a diagnosis of SAS at adulthood. The combination of these 2 criteria may result in higher sensitivity for SAS screening. Unlike LVOT Vmax, EOAi did not change during growth in either unaffected Golden Retrievers or those with SAS.

  2. The geological evolution of opalinus clay in the Zurcher Weinland Area (ne Switzerland): learning from the past to predict future evolution and stability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautschi, A.; Mazurek, M.

    2004-01-01

    A number of safety-relevant issues need to be addressed when considering long-term evolution of a radioactive waste repository, out of which uplift/erosion, fault activity, and changes in the geochemical and hydrogeological environment are particularly important. Among the strongest arguments in the prediction of future evolution is the extrapolation of events and processes that occurred over a long period of time in the geological past (e.g. 10 Ma) to a shorter period in the future. The future long-term evolution of Opalinus Clay in a potential siting area for a high-level waste repository in the Zurcher Weinland (NE Switzerland) is considered over a time period of around l Ma. The geological evolution or geological stability, respectively, can be predicted plausibly within reasonable limits over such a time period based on a detailed analysis of geological history. Predictions extending beyond this time period are feasible but contain an increasing element of uncertainty. This paper summarises the project-related conclusions, which are presented in greater detail in Nagra (2002a). (author)

  3. Development of Test Method for Simple Shear and Prediction of Hardening Behavior Considering the Branchings Effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dongwook; Bang, Sungsik; Kim, Minsoo; Lee, Hyungyil; Kim, Naksoo

    2013-01-01

    In this study we establish a process to predict hardening behavior considering the Branchings effect for zircaloy-4 sheets. When a metal is compressed after tension in forming, the yield strength decreases. For this reason, the Branchings effect should be considered in FE simulations of spring-back. We suggested a suitable specimen size and a method for determining the optimum tightening torque for simple shear tests. Shear stress-strain curves are obtained for five materials. We developed a method to convert the shear load-displacement curve to the effective stress-strain curve with Fea. We simulated the simple shear forward/reverse test using the combined isotropic/kinematic hardening model. We also investigated the change of the load-displacement curve by varying the hardening coefficients. We determined the hardening coefficients so that they follow the hardening behavior of zircaloy-4 in experiments

  4. Development of Test Method for Simple Shear and Prediction of Hardening Behavior Considering the Branchings Effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dongwook; Bang, Sungsik; Kim, Minsoo; Lee, Hyungyil; Kim, Naksoo [Sogang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In this study we establish a process to predict hardening behavior considering the Branchings effect for zircaloy-4 sheets. When a metal is compressed after tension in forming, the yield strength decreases. For this reason, the Branchings effect should be considered in FE simulations of spring-back. We suggested a suitable specimen size and a method for determining the optimum tightening torque for simple shear tests. Shear stress-strain curves are obtained for five materials. We developed a method to convert the shear load-displacement curve to the effective stress-strain curve with Fea. We simulated the simple shear forward/reverse test using the combined isotropic/kinematic hardening model. We also investigated the change of the load-displacement curve by varying the hardening coefficients. We determined the hardening coefficients so that they follow the hardening behavior of zircaloy-4 in experiments.

  5. Artificial neural networks in prediction of mechanical behavior of concrete at high temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, A.; Nag Biswas, S.

    1997-01-01

    The behavior of concrete structures that are exposed to extreme thermo-mechanical loading is an issue of great importance in nuclear engineering. The mechanical behavior of concrete at high temperature is non-linear. The properties that regulate its response are highly temperature dependent and extremely complex. In addition, the constituent materials, e.g. aggregates, influence the response significantly. Attempts have been made to trace the stress-strain curve through mathematical models and rheological models. However, it has been difficult to include all the contributing factors in the mathematical model. This paper examines a new programming paradigm, artificial neural networks, for the problem. Implementing a feedforward network and backpropagation algorithm the stress-strain relationship of the material is captured. The neural networks for the prediction of uniaxial behavior of concrete at high temperature has been presented here. The results of the present investigation are very encouraging. (orig.)

  6. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  7. Predicting land use change on a broad area: Dyna-CLUE model application to the Litorale Domizio-Agro Aversano (Campania, South Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Pindozzi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-standing awareness of the environmental impact of land-use change (LUC has led scientific community to develop tools able to predict their amount and to evaluate their effect on environment, with the aim supporting policy makers in their planning activities. This paper proposes an implementation of the Dyna-CLUE (Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model applied to the Litorale Domizio-Agro Aversano, an area of Campania region, which needs interventions for environmental remediation. Future land use changes were simulated in two different scenarios developed under alternative strategies of land management: scenario 1 is a simple projection of the recent LUC trend, while scenario 2 hypothesises the introduction of no-food crops, such as poplar (Populus nigra L. and giant reed (Arundo donax L., in addition to a less impactful urban sprawl, which is one of the main issues in the study area. The overall duration of simulations was 13 years, subdivided into yearly time steps. CORINE land cover map of 2006 was used as baseline for land use change detection in the study area. Competition between different land use types is taken into account by setting the conversion elasticity, a parameter ranging from 0 to 1, according to their capital investment level. Location suitability for each land use type is based on logit model. Since no actual land use already exists for the alternative crops investigated in scenario 2, a suitability map realised through a spatial multicriteria decision analysis was used as a proxy for its land use pattern. The comparison of the land use in 2012 and scenario 1, evaluated through the application of Kappa statistics, showed a general tendency to expansion of built-up areas, with an increase of about 2400 ha (1.5% of the total surface, at the expense of agricultural land and those covered by natural vegetation. The comparison of the land use in 2012 and scenario 2 showed a less significant spread of built

  8. Maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation of mycophenolic Acid area under the concentration-time curve: is this clinically useful for dosage prediction yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staatz, Christine E; Tett, Susan E

    2011-12-01

    This review seeks to summarize the available data about Bayesian estimation of area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and dosage prediction for mycophenolic acid (MPA) and evaluate whether sufficient evidence is available for routine use of Bayesian dosage prediction in clinical practice. A literature search identified 14 studies that assessed the predictive performance of maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation of MPA AUC and one report that retrospectively evaluated how closely dosage recommendations based on Bayesian forecasting achieved targeted MPA exposure. Studies to date have mostly been undertaken in renal transplant recipients, with limited investigation in patients treated with MPA for autoimmune disease or haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. All of these studies have involved use of the mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) formulation of MPA, rather than the enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) formulation. Bias associated with estimation of MPA AUC using Bayesian forecasting was generally less than 10%. However some difficulties with imprecision was evident, with values ranging from 4% to 34% (based on estimation involving two or more concentration measurements). Evaluation of whether MPA dosing decisions based on Bayesian forecasting (by the free website service https://pharmaco.chu-limoges.fr) achieved target drug exposure has only been undertaken once. When MMF dosage recommendations were applied by clinicians, a higher proportion (72-80%) of subsequent estimated MPA AUC values were within the 30-60 mg · h/L target range, compared with when dosage recommendations were not followed (only 39-57% within target range). Such findings provide evidence that Bayesian dosage prediction is clinically useful for achieving target MPA AUC. This study, however, was retrospective and focussed only on adult renal transplant recipients. Furthermore, in this study, Bayesian-generated AUC estimations and dosage predictions were not compared

  9. Application of the strain energy for fatigue life prediction (LCF) of metals by the energy-based criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahram Shahrooi; Ibrahim Henk Metselaar; Zainul Huda; Ghezavati, H.R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: In this study, the plastic strain energy under multiaxial fatigue condition has been calculated in the cyclic plasticity models by the stress-strain hysteresis loops. Then, using the results of these models, the fatigue lives in energy-based fatigue model is predicted and compared to experimental data. Moreover, a weighting factor on shear plastic work is presented to decrease the life factors in the model fatigue. (author)

  10. Using remote sensing data to predict road fill areas and areas affected by fill erosion with planned forest road construction: a case study in Kastamonu Regional Forest Directorate (Turkey).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aricak, Burak

    2015-07-01

    Forest roads are essential for transport in managed forests, yet road construction causes environmental disturbance, both in the surface area the road covers and in erosion and downslope deposition of road fill material. The factors affecting the deposition distance of eroded road fill are the slope gradient and the density of plant cover. Thus, it is important to take these factors into consideration during road planning to minimize their disturbance. The aim of this study was to use remote sensing and field surveying to predict the locations that would be affected by downslope deposition of eroding road fill and to compile the data into a geographic information system (GIS) database. The construction of 99,500 m of forest roads is proposed for the Kastamonu Regional Forest Directorate in Turkey. Using GeoEye satellite images and a digital elevation model (DEM) for the region, the location and extent of downslope deposition of road fill were determined for the roads as planned. It was found that if the proposed roads were constructed by excavators, the fill material would cover 910,621 m(2) and the affected surface area would be 1,302,740 m(2). Application of the method used here can minimize the adverse effects of forest roads.

  11. Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas; Mise au point d'une methodologie predictive des zones a fort potentiel d'exhalation du radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ielsch, G

    2001-07-01

    Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

  12. Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas; Mise au point d'une methodologie predictive des zones a fort potentiel d'exhalation du radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ielsch, G

    2001-07-01

    Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

  13. Testing of Models for Predicting the Behaviour of Radionuclides in Freshwater Systems and Coastal Areas. Report of the Aquatic Working Group of EMRAS Theme 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    During last decades a number of projects have been launched to validate models for predicting the behaviour of radioactive substances in the environment. Such projects took advantage from the great deal of experimental data gathered, following the accidental introduction of radionuclides into the environment (the accident at the Chernobyl power plant was the most obvious example), to assess the contamination levels of components of the ecosystem and of the human food chain. These projects stimulated intensive efforts for improving the reliability of the models aimed at predicting the migration of 137 Cs in lakes and of 137 Cs and 90 Sr in rivers. However, there are few examples of similar extensive model validation studies for other aquatic systems, such as coastal waters, or for other long lived radionuclides of potential radiological importance for freshwater systems. The validation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in the freshwater environment and coastal areas was the object of the EMRAS working group on testing of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in freshwater systems and coastal areas. Five scenarios have been considered: (1) Wash-off of 90 Sr and 137 Cs deposits from the Pripyat floodplain (Ukraine). Modellers were asked to predict the time dependent water contamination of Pripyat River following the inundation of the river floodplain heavily contaminated following the Chernobyl accident. Available input data were the deposits of radionuclides in the floodplain, the time dependent contamination of water in the river entering the floodplain, the water fluxes and several other morphological, meteorological and hydrological data. Concentrations of radionuclides in the water of the River Prypiat down-stream of the floodplain were supplied to assess the performances of the models. (2) Radionuclide discharge from the Dnieper River (Ukraine) into its estuary in the Black Sea. Modellers were asked to predict the time

  14. Modelos para estimativa da área foliar de Curcuma alismatifolia e Vurcuma zedoaria Leaf area prediction models for Curcuma alismatifolia and Curcuma zedoaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Christina Rossini Pinto

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available O presente estudo determina modelos para estimativa da área foliar de Curcuma alismatifolia e de Curcuma zedoaria. Para utilização destas espécies como ornamentais, é necessário o estabelecimento de técnicas de produção adequadas. Assim, a determinação da área foliar é importante, pois é usada para avaliar a resposta da planta a fatores ambientais e técnicas culturais. O uso de modelos para estimar a área foliar é um método simples, de boa precisão e não destrutivo. No estádio de floração foram coletadas cem folhas de C.alismatifolia ('Pink' e 'White' e de C.zedoaria. Determinaram-se o comprimento (C e a largura (L máximos e a área foliar real (AFR, com auxílio de integrador de área foliar (LI-3100. Estudaram-se as relações entre a AFR e o C, L e CL (produto do comprimento pela largura da folha, por meio de modelos de regressão linear. Os modelos AFR = 0,59048 CL (C.alismatifolia 'Pink', AFR = 6,08410 + 0,52162 CL (C.alismatifolia 'White' e AFR = 0,70233 CL (C.zedoaria são estatisticamente adequados para estimar a área foliar real.The present work establishes regression models to estimate leaf area of Curcuma alismatifolia and Curcuma zedoaria. To use these of species as ornamental plants is necessary to establish adequate cultivation techniques. Thus, the determination of leaf area is very important, once it is used to evaluate plant response to environmental factors and crop techniques. The use of prediction models to estimate leaf area is a simple, accurate and nondestructive method. At the stage of flowering, a hundred leaves of C.alismatifolia ('Pink' and 'White' and C.zedoaria were collected for each species and cultivar. Maximum length (L, maximum width (W and real leaf area (RLA were measured with a leaf area meter (LI-3100. The relation between RLA and the L, W and the product of length by width (LW, was studied through linear regression models. The models RLA = 0.59048 LW (C.alismatifolia 'Pink', RLA = 6

  15. Predicting the Permanent Safe Donor Area for Hair Transplantation in Koreans with Male Pattern Baldness according to the Position of the Parietal Whorl

    Science.gov (United States)

    Na, Young Cheon; Moh, Jae Seong; Lee, Seung Yong; You, Seung Hyun

    2014-01-01

    Background The most crucial factor in hair transplantation for male pattern baldness (MPB) patients is the efficient utilization of the donor-recipient ratio. However, there is no known factor that scientifically predicts the rate of progression of alopecia or indicates a permanently safe donor area. Methods The study considered 1,008 Korean adult males with MPB; of these, it excluded 56 males with an absence of parietal whorls (PWs). The authors investigated the distance from the vertical bimeatal line (VM) to the PW, from the PW to the upper border of the helical rim (HR), and the distance from the PW to the occipital fringe (OF) in 952 subjects with a PW. Furthermore, we examined the distance from the PW to the OF considering the duration of alopecia and age in 322 subjects with vertex alopecia. Results The distance between the VM and PW varied from 1.5 to 11 cm, with an average distance of 6.25 cm. The PW-HR distance ranged from 3.4 to 17.5 cm, and the average distance was 7.79 cm. The PW-OF distance ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 cm, and the average distance was 2.37 cm. Conclusions For the PW, very large variations existed in the vertical direction. The position of the PW could predict the progression range of the total alopecia of the vertex. Alopecia mostly progresses within 6 cm of the PW toward the occipital side. PMID:24883280

  16. Predicting the Permanent Safe Donor Area for Hair Transplantation in Koreans with Male Pattern Baldness according to the Position of the Parietal Whorl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Hyun Park

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background The most crucial factor in hair transplantation for male pattern baldness (MPB patients is the efficient utilization of the donor-recipient ratio. However, there is no known factor that scientifically predicts the rate of progression of alopecia or indicates a permanently safe donor area. Methods The study considered 1,008 Korean adult males with MPB; of these, it excluded 56 males with an absence of parietal whorls (PWs. The authors investigated the distance from the vertical bimeatal line (VM to the PW, from the PW to the upper border of the helical rim (HR, and the distance from the PW to the occipital fringe (OF in 952 subjects with a PW. Furthermore, we examined the distance from the PW to the OF considering the duration of alopecia and age in 322 subjects with vertex alopecia. Results The distance between the VM and PW varied from 1.5 to 11 cm, with an average distance of 6.25 cm. The PW-HR distance ranged from 3.4 to 17.5 cm, and the average distance was 7.79 cm. The PW-OF distance ranged from 0.5 to 5.5 cm, and the average distance was 2.37 cm. Conclusions For the PW, very large variations existed in the vertical direction. The position of the PW could predict the progression range of the total alopecia of the vertex. Alopecia mostly progresses within 6 cm of the PW toward the occipital side.

  17. Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzione, Rodrigo L.; Wendland, Edson; Tanikawa, Diego H.

    2012-11-01

    Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

  18. PNNL Stress/Strain Correlation for Zircaloy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geelhood, Kenneth J.; Beyer, Carl E.; Luscher, Walter G.

    2008-07-18

    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked with incorporating cladding mechanical property data into the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) fuel codes, FRAPCON-31 and FRAPTRAN2, by the NRC Office of Nuclear Reactor Research. The objective of that task was to create a mechanical model that can calculate true stress, true strain, and the possible failure of the fuel rod cladding based on uniaxial test data.

  19. Military Wives: Stress, Strain and Alcohol Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-01-01

    to 45 be confused with the previously mentioned concept of coping as a process ( cognitive aspect of coping). Social support has been hypothesized to...breast. Knowing that one of the signs of breast cancer is a lump on the breast, the woman perceives this situation as a stressful situation ( cognitive ... aspect of coping). She can take direct action after she’s determined the threat by immediately calling for an appointment with her physician or cope

  20. Assessment and prediction of land ecological environment quality change based on remote sensing-a case study of the Dongting lake area in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Wenmin; Wang, Zhongcheng; Li, Chunhua; Zhao, Jin; Li, Yi

    2018-02-01

    Multi-source remote sensing data is rarely used for the comprehensive assessment of land ecologic environment quality. In this study, a digital environmental model was proposed with the inversion algorithm of land and environmental factors based on the multi-source remote sensing data, and a comprehensive index (Ecoindex) was applied to reconstruct and predict the land environment quality of the Dongting Lake Area to assess the effect of human activities on the environment. The main finding was that with the decrease of Grade I and Grade II quality had a decreasing tendency in the lake area, mostly in suburbs and wetlands. Atmospheric water vapour, land use intensity, surface temperature, vegetation coverage, and soil water content were the main driving factors. The cause of degradation was the interference of multi-factor combinations, which led to positive and negative environmental agglomeration effects. Positive agglomeration, such as increased rainfall and vegetation coverage and reduced land use intensity, could increase environmental quality, while negative agglomeration resulted in the opposite. Therefore, reasonable ecological restoration measures should be beneficial to limit the negative effects and decreasing tendency, improve the land ecological environment quality and provide references for macroscopic planning by the government.

  1. Lactose malabsorption diagnosed by 50-g dose is inferior to assess clinical intolerance and to predict response to milk withdrawal than 25-g dose in an endemic area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghoshal, Uday C; Kumar, Sunil; Misra, Asha; Mittal, Balraj

    2013-09-01

    Lactose malabsorption (LM), diagnosed currently using lactose hydrogen breath and tolerance tests (LHBT, LTT) with a high, nonphysiological dose (50-g), may mimic irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). In LM-endemic areas, clinically significant malabsorption (lactose intolerance) may be better diagnosed using a lesser dose, and positive results so obtained may predict response to milk withdrawal more effectively. Fifty patients each with IBS (Rome III) were evaluated using LHBT and LTT with 50-g, 25-g, and 12-g lactose. Sensitivity and specificity of LHBT and LTT with different dosages (gold standard: lactase gene C/T-13910 polymorphism) and symptom development were evaluated. Effect of milk withdrawal was studied. Of 150 patients, 37/50 (74%) and 28/50 (56%) had LM by LHBT and LTT using 50-g lactose; 41/50 (82%) and 31/50 (62%) had LM using 25-g lactose, and 14/50 (28%) and 29/50 (58%) using 12-g lactose, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of LHBT using 50-g, 25-g, and 12-g lactose were 92.6%, 52.0%, and 94%, 60%, and 36.4%, 88.2%, and those of LTT, 92%, 80.0%, and 84.8%, 82.4%, and 66.7%, 58.8%, respectively. Breath hydrogen correlated with lactose dose. Though patients developing symptoms with 50-g lactose exhaled more hydrogen than those remaining asymptomatic, hydrogen levels did not differ following 25-g and 12-g dosages in relation to symptom development. Patients' milk intake was 335 ± 92 mL/d (≈ 16.7 ± 9.6-g lactose). Positive LHBT using 25-g dose better predicted symptom resolution than by 50-g and 12-g lactose. Twenty-five gram is the ideal dose of lactose for LHBT and LTT in LM-endemic areas. © 2013 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  2. Similar circuits but different connectivity patterns between the cerebellum, basal ganglia, and supplementary motor area in early Parkinson's disease patients and controls during predictive motor timing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husárová, Ivica; Mikl, Michal; Lungu, Ovidiu V; Mareček, Radek; Vaníček, Jiří; Bareš, Martin

    2013-10-01

    The cerebellum, basal ganglia (BG), and other cortical regions, such as supplementary motor area (SMA) have emerged as important structures dealing with various aspects of timing, yet the modulation of functional connectivity between them during motor timing tasks remains unexplored. We used dynamic causal modeling to investigate the differences in effective connectivity (EC) between these regions and its modulation by behavioral outcome during a motor timing prediction task in a group of 16 patients with early Parkinson's disease (PD) and 17 healthy controls. Behavioral events (hits and errors) constituted the driving input connected to the cerebellum, and the modulation in connectivity was assessed relative to the hit condition (successful interception of target). The driving input elicited response in the target area, while modulatory input changed the specific connection strength. The neuroimaging data revealed similar structure of intrinsic connectivity in both groups with unidirectional connections from cerebellum to both sides of the BG, from BG to the SMA, and then from SMA to the cerebellum. However, the type of intrinsic connection was different between two groups. In the PD group, the connection between the SMA and cerebellum was inhibitory in comparison to the HC group, where the connection was activated. Furthermore, the modulation of connectivity by the performance in the task was different between the two groups, with decreased connectivity between the cerebellum and left BG and SMA and a more pronounced symmetry of these connections in controls. In the same time, there was an increased EC between the cerebellum and both sides of BG with more pronounced asymmetry (stronger connection with left BG) in patients. In addition, in the PD group the modulatory input strengthened inhibitory connectivity between the SMA and the cerebellum, while in the HC group the excitatory connection was slightly strengthened. Our findings indicate that although early PD

  3. Statistical experiments using the multiple regression research for prediction of proper hardness in areas of phosphorus cast-iron brake shoes manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiss, I.; Cioată, V. G.; Ratiu, S. A.; Rackov, M.; Penčić, M.

    2018-01-01

    Multivariate research is important in areas of cast-iron brake shoes manufacturing, because many variables interact with each other simultaneously. This article focuses on expressing the multiple linear regression model related to the hardness assurance by the chemical composition of the phosphorous cast irons destined to the brake shoes, having in view that the regression coefficients will illustrate the unrelated contributions of each independent variable towards predicting the dependent variable. In order to settle the multiple correlations between the hardness of the cast-iron brake shoes, and their chemical compositions several regression equations has been proposed. Is searched a mathematical solution which can determine the optimum chemical composition for the hardness desirable values. Starting from the above-mentioned affirmations two new statistical experiments are effectuated related to the values of Phosphorus [P], Manganese [Mn] and Silicon [Si]. Therefore, the regression equations, which describe the mathematical dependency between the above-mentioned elements and the hardness, are determined. As result, several correlation charts will be revealed.

  4. High ERCC1 expression predicts cisplatin-based chemotherapy resistance and poor outcome in unresectable squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck in a betel-chewing area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien Chih-Yen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study was to evaluate the effect of excision repair cross-complementation group 1(ERCC1 expression on response to cisplatin-based induction chemotherapy (IC followed by concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT in locally advanced unresectable head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC patients. Methods Fifty-seven patients with locally advanced unresectable HNSCC who received cisplatin-based IC followed by CCRT from January 1, 2006 through January 1, 2008. Eligibility criteria included presence of biopsy-proven HNSCC without a prior history of chemotherapy or radiotherapy. Immunohistochemistry was used to assess ERCC1 expression in pretreatment biopsy specimens from paraffin blocks. Clinical parameters, including smoking, alcohol consumption and betel nuts chewing, were obtained from the medical records. Results The 12-month progression-free survival (PFS and 2-year overall survival (OS rates of fifty-seven patients were 61.1% and 61.0%, respectively. Among these patients, thirty-one patients had low ERCC1 expression and forty-one patients responded to IC followed by CCRT. Univariate analyses showed that patients with low expression of ERCC1 had a significantly higher 12-month PFS rates (73.3% vs. 42.3%, p Conclusions Our study suggest that a high expression of ERCC1 predict a poor response and survival to cisplatin-based IC followed by CCRT in patients with locally advanced unresectable HNSCC in betel nut chewing area.

  5. Predicting survival function and identifying associated factors in patients with renal insufficiency in the metropolitan area of Maringá, Paraná State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramires, Thiago G; Nakamura, Luiz R; Righetto, Ana J; Ortega, Edwin M M; Cordeiro, Gauss M

    2018-02-05

    Renal insufficiency is a serious medical and public health problem worldwide. Recently, although many surveys have been developed to identify factors related to the lifetime of patients with renal insufficiency, controversial results from several studies suggest that researches should be conducted by region. Thus, in this study we aim to predict and identify factors associated with the lifetime of patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) in the metropolitan area of Maringá, Paraná State, Brazil, based on the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework. Data used in this study were collected from the Maringá Kidney Institute and comprehends 177 patients (classified with CRF and mostly being treated under the Brazilian Unified National Health System) enrolled in a hemodialysis program from 1978 up to 2010. By using this approach, we concluded that in other regions, gender, kidney transplant indicator, antibodies to hepatitis B and antibodies to hepatitis C are significant factors that affect the expected lifetime.

  6. Predicting survival function and identifying associated factors in patients with renal insufficiency in the metropolitan area of Maringá, Paraná State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago G. Ramires

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Renal insufficiency is a serious medical and public health problem worldwide. Recently, although many surveys have been developed to identify factors related to the lifetime of patients with renal insufficiency, controversial results from several studies suggest that researches should be conducted by region. Thus, in this study we aim to predict and identify factors associated with the lifetime of patients with chronic renal failure (CRF in the metropolitan area of Maringá, Paraná State, Brazil, based on the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS framework. Data used in this study were collected from the Maringá Kidney Institute and comprehends 177 patients (classified with CRF and mostly being treated under the Brazilian Unified National Health System enrolled in a hemodialysis program from 1978 up to 2010. By using this approach, we concluded that in other regions, gender, kidney transplant indicator, antibodies to hepatitis B and antibodies to hepatitis C are significant factors that affect the expected lifetime.

  7. Development and Assessment of the Sand Dust Prediction Model by Utilizing Microwave-Based Satellite Soil Moisture and Reanalysis Datasets in East Asian Desert Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunglok Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For several decades, satellite-based microwave sensors have provided valuable soil moisture monitoring in various surface conditions. We have first developed a modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD dataset by utilizing Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2, and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS soil moisture datasets in order to estimate dust outbreaks over desert areas of East Asia. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer- (MODIS- based AOD products were used as reference datasets to validate the modeled AOD (MA. The SMOS-based MA (SMOS-MA dataset showed good correspondence with observed AOD (R-value: 0.56 compared to AMSR2- and GLDAS-based MA datasets, and it overestimated AOD compared to observed AOD. The AMSR2-based MA dataset was found to underestimate AOD, and it showed a relatively low R-value (0.35 with respect to observed AOD. Furthermore, SMOS-MA products were able to simulate the short-term AOD trends, having a high R-value (0.65. The results of this study may allow us to acknowledge the utilization of microwave-based soil moisture datasets for investigation of near-real time dust outbreak predictions and short-term dust outbreak trend analysis.

  8. Quantification of Internal Stress-Strain Fields in Human Tendon: Unraveling the Mechanisms that Underlie Regional Tendon Adaptations and Mal-Adaptations to Mechanical Loading and the Effectiveness of Therapeutic Eccentric Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maganaris, Constantinos N.; Chatzistergos, Panagiotis; Reeves, Neil D.; Narici, Marco V.

    2017-01-01

    of the stress created by the exercise and is not only reliant upon the type of muscle contraction performed. To better understand the micromechanical behavior and regional adaptability/mal-adaptability of tendon tissue it is important to estimate its internal stress-strain fields. Recent relevant advancements in numerical techniques related to tendon loading are discussed. PMID:28293194

  9. Experimental study of the strain state at the area of a surface defect in a steel cylindrical shell subjected to internal pressure

    OpenAIRE

    Бесчетников, Д. А.

    2014-01-01

    Experimental research of stress-strain state at the area of local volumetric surface defects of the pipeline systems is an important goal because results of the measurements are necessary for increasing of effectiveness of existing repair technologies using fiber reinforcement polymer composite materials. In this work the description of experiment carried out by the author is presented with statement of results. The experiment was devoted to strain gauging of a steel cylindrical shell with vo...

  10. Recent Methodologies for Creep Deformation Analysis and Its Life Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo-Gon; Park, Jae-Young; Iung

    2016-01-01

    To design the high-temperature creeping materials, various creep data are needed for codification, as follows: i) stress vs. creep rupture time for base metals and weldments (average and minimum), ii) stress vs. time to 1% total strain (average), iii) stress vs. time to onset of tertiary creep (minimum), and iv) constitutive eqns. for conducting time- and temperature- dependent stress-strain (average), and v) isochronous stress-strain curves (average). Also, elevated temperature components such as those used in modern power generation plant are designed using allowable stress under creep conditions. The allowable stress is usually estimated on the basis of up to 10"5 h creep rupture strength at the operating temperature. The master curve of the “sinh” function was found to have a wider acceptance with good flexibility in the low stress ranges beyond the experimental data. The proposed multi-C method in the LM parameter revealed better life prediction than a single-C method. These improved methodologies can be utilized to accurately predict the long-term creep life or strength of Gen-IV nuclear materials which are designed for life span of 60 years

  11. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp-lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp-lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp-lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp-lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp-lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

    2016-01-01

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  13. Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arizzi, Anna, E-mail: anna.arizzi@ouce.ox.ac.uk [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Viles, Heather [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Martín-Sanchez, Inés [Departamento de Microbiología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain); Cultrone, Giuseppe [Departamento de Mineralogía y Petrología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain)

    2016-01-15

    Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders

  14. Past and predicted future effects of housing growth on open space conservation opportunity areas and habitat connectivity around National Wildlife Refuges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Baumann, Matthias; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Helmers, David P.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    ContextHousing growth can alter suitability of matrix habitats around protected areas, strongly affecting movements of organisms and, consequently, threatening connectivity of protected area networks.ObjectivesOur goal was to quantify distribution and growth of housing around the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System. This is important information for conservation planning, particularly given promotion of habitat connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure.MethodsWe quantified housing growth from 1940 to 2000 and projected future growth to 2030 within three distances from refuges, identifying very low housing density open space, “opportunity areas” (contiguous areas with habitat corridors within these opportunity areas in 2000.ResultsOur results indicated that the number and area of open space opportunity areas generally decreased with increasing distance from refuges and with the passage of time. Furthermore, total area in habitat corridors was much lower than in opportunity areas. In addition, the number of corridors sometimes exceeded number of opportunity areas as a result of habitat fragmentation, indicating corridors are likely vulnerable to land use change. Finally, regional differences were strong and indicated some refuges may have experienced so much housing growth already that they are effectively too isolated to adapt to climate change, while others may require extensive habitat restoration work.ConclusionsWildlife refuges are increasingly isolated by residential housing development, potentially constraining the movement of wildlife and, therefore, their ability to adapt to a changing climate.

  15. Development of a computing program for prediction of wind power for midsize and wide grid areas. Final report; Entwicklung eines Rechenmodells zur Vorhersage der Windleistung fuer mittlere und grosse Versorgungsgebiete. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reeder, L.; Rohrig, K.; Ernst, B.; Schorn, P.; Bettels, B.

    2002-06-30

    In co-operation with partners out of industry and research a machine program was developed predicting the output of wind power plants. Three attributes should be realised by this prediction tool: Short computing time, usable for various grid regions, high reliability. Therewith the transmission system operators get a tool for reducing the amount of control energy which is needed to ensure the balance between power generation and consumption in their networks. This prediction tool for up to two days was developed exemplary for the northern grid area of the transmission system operator 'E.ON Netz GmbH' (ENE). The wind power prediction is based on numerical weather forecast from the German weather service (Deutscher Wetterdienst). The weather forecast is given for 16 representative sites within the ENE-area. The meso-scale model KLIMM (Klima Model Mainz) was used to calculate the meteorological variables near to the wind farms, which are connected to the one transformer substation belonging to one representative place. Therefor KLIMM is fed with the weather forecast given for one limited location in the representative sites. The transformation of the meteorological variables to the output of wind power plants at the representative site is done by Neural Networks. These Neural Networks have been trained with corresponding measurements. Using an existing online-model the total wind power for the whole ENE-area will be calculated from the individual wind power of the representative sites. The Evaluation of the prediction- and measured data from 2001 shows comparing with reference-models, that the prediction-model evolved in the project lead to very good results. (orig.)

  16. A distributed model predictive control based load frequency control scheme for multi-area interconnected power system using discrete-time Laguerre functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yang; Zhou, Jianzhong; Xu, Yanhe; Zhang, Yuncheng; Qian, Zhongdong

    2017-05-01

    This paper proposes a distributed model predictive control based load frequency control (MPC-LFC) scheme to improve control performances in the frequency regulation of power system. In order to reduce the computational burden in the rolling optimization with a sufficiently large prediction horizon, the orthonormal Laguerre functions are utilized to approximate the predicted control trajectory. The closed-loop stability of the proposed MPC scheme is achieved by adding a terminal equality constraint to the online quadratic optimization and taking the cost function as the Lyapunov function. Furthermore, the treatments of some typical constraints in load frequency control have been studied based on the specific Laguerre-based formulations. Simulations have been conducted in two different interconnected power systems to validate the effectiveness of the proposed distributed MPC-LFC as well as its superiority over the comparative methods. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The Technical Integration of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System to Predict the Peak Discharge Which Uses the Characteristic of Physical Environment of Catchments Area In Elo Sub Catchments Area in Central java

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugiharto Budi Santoso

    2004-01-01

    The results of the research show that: (1 the aerial photo of black and white panchromatic on the scale 1:50. 000 is obtained to interpret the slope area and it is not good to interpret the accuracy of the covered arm is about 87% and 77,4 %, (2 the current coeflicient which is accounted hased on the table of Cook method is about 40,36% - deviates 39,94% from the field data; (3 the peak discharge in Elo sub catchments area with rational formula is about 3022,03 m/second, while the peak discharge as the observation result is about 112,675 m/second. Its large of research area causs the time to peak takes a long time, which causes raining intensity increases. The increasing value of raining intensity and the flow coeficient makes the value of peak discharge increases that larger than measured peak discharge.

  18. Prediction of Pseudo relative velocity response spectra at Yucca Mountain for underground nuclear explosions conducted in the Pahute Mesa testing area at the Nevada testing site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, J.S.

    1991-12-01

    The Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP), managed by the Office of Geologic Disposal of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management of the US Department of Energy, is examining the feasibility of siting a repository for commercial, high-level nuclear wastes at Yucca Mountain on and adjacent to the Nevada Test Site (NTS). This work, intended to extend our understanding of the ground motion at Yucca Mountain resulting from testing of nuclear weapons on the NTS, was funded by the Yucca Mountain project and the Military Applications Weapons Test Program. This report summarizes one aspect of the weapons test seismic investigations conducted in FY88. Pseudo relative velocity response spectra (PSRV) have been calculated for a large body of surface ground motions generated by underground nuclear explosions. These spectra have been analyzed and fit using multiple linear regression techniques to develop a credible prediction technique for surface PSRVs. In addition, a technique for estimating downhole PSRVs at specific stations is included. A data summary, data analysis, prediction development, prediction evaluation, software summary and FORTRAN listing of the prediction technique are included in this report

  19. [Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of ecosystem services as affected by urban expansion: A case study in coastal area of Tianjin, North China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Huan-Chun; Yun, Ying-Xia; Miao, Zhan-Tang; Hao, Cui; Li, Hong-yuan

    2013-03-01

    Based on the modified Logistic-CA model, and taking the coastal area of Tianjin as a case, this paper simulated the spatial evolution patterns of ecosystem services as affected by the urban expansion in 2011-2020 under the scenarios of historical extrapolation, endogenous development, and exogenous development. Overall, the total ecosystem services of the study area under the three scenarios were generally the same, and the functional region with the lowest level ecosystem services had the identical spatial pattern. However, the spatial evolution patterns of the ecosystem services of the study area under the three scenarios had a great difference. The functional regions with lower-level ecosystem services grew in a cross-shaped pattern, with the Tanggu downtown as a center, and finally formed a full connectivity area along the Haihe River and coastal zone.

  20. Prediction of Exploration Target Areas for GEM Deposits in Mogok Stone Tract, Northern Myanmar by Integrating Remote Sensing and Geoscience Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oo, Tin Ko

    2011-07-01

    The Mogok Stone Tract area has long been known for world famous finest ruby since 1597. The Mogok area lies in northern Myanmar and is located at about 205.99km northeast from Mandalay, the second largest city of Myanmar. The Mogok Group of metasedimentary rocks is divided into four units: (1) Wabyudaung Marble, (2) Ayenyeinchantha Calc-silicate, (3) Gwebin Quartzite, and (4) Kabe Gneiss. Igneous rocks in the Mogok area are classified into two units: (1) Kabaing Granite and (2) Pingutaung Leucogranite. The Mogok area has a complex structure involving several folds and faults. Using marbles and calc-silicates as marker horizons, a series of anticline and syncline can be identified such as Mogok syncline, Ongaing anticline, Bawpadan syncline, and Kyatpyin anticline. All the foldings show a low-angle plunge to the south. The main precious stones of the Mogok area are ruby and sapphire; and the other important semi-precious stones are spinel, topaz, peridot, garnet, apatite, beryl, tourmaline (rubellite), quartz, diopside, fluorite, and enstatite. Geological and remote sensing data are processed to extract the indicative features of gem mineralized areas: lithology, structure, and hydrothermal alteration. Density slice version of Landsat ETM band ratios 5/7 is used to map clay alterations. Filtering Landsat ETM band 5 by using edge detection filter is applied for lineament mapping. Spatial integration of various geoscience and remote sensing data sets such as geological maps, Landsat ETM images, and the location map of gem mines show the distribution of alteration zones associated with the gem mineralization in the study area. Geographic Information System (GIS) model has been designed and implemented by ARCVIEW software package based on the overlay of lithologic, lineament, and alteration vector maps. This process has resulted in delineation of most promising areas of probable gem mineralized zones as on the output map.

  1. LCF life prediction for waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeom, Jong Taek; Park, Nho Kwang

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the empirical rule of strain rate modified linear accumulation of creep damage(SRM rule) for Low-Cycle Fatigue(LCF) life prediction of Waspaloy in the creep-fatigue interaction regime and Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model predicting the stress-strain response in various cyclic loading conditions. The comparison of the experimental data and the predictions for strain controlled LCF tests carried out for various strain ranges at 600 .deg. C and 650 .deg. C was made. Chaboche type unified viscoplastic model described efficiently the inelastic deformation behavior during LCF tests. Crack-initiation lifting method to predict the material life was investigated with Strain Rate Modification(SRM) rule. The application of SRM rule to LCF tests on Waspaloy indicated a good agreement between measured and predicted cycles to failure

  2. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puddu Paolo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm

  3. Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the impact of best management practices in Jatigede Catchment Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridwansyah, Iwan; Fakhrudin, M.; Wibowo, Hendro; Yulianti, Meti

    2018-02-01

    Cimanuk watershed is one of the national priority watersheds for rehabilitation considering its critical condition. In this area, Jatigede Reservoir operates, which is the second largest reservoir in Indonesia, after Jatiluhur Reservoir. The reservoir performs several functions, including flood control, irrigation for 90.000 ha of rice fields, water supply of 3.500 litres per second, and power generation of 110 MW. In 2004 the Jatigede Reservoir catchment area had a critical land area of 40.875 ha (28% of the catchment area). The sedimentation rate in Cimanuk River at Eretan station shows a high rate (5.32 mm/year), which potentially decreases the function of Jatigede Reservoir. Therefore, a strategy of Best Management Practice’s (BMP’s) is required to mitigate the problem by using SWAT hydrology modelling. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of BMP’s on surface runoff and sediment yield in Jatigede Reservoir Catchment Area. Simulations were conducted using land use in 2011. The results of this study suggest that SWAT model is considered as a reasonable modelling of BMP’s simulation concerning Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients (0.71). The simulation is using terraces, silt pit, and dam trenches as BMP’s techniques. The BMP’s application can reduce surface runoff from 99.7 mm to 75.8 mm, and decrease sediment yield from 61.9 ton/ha/year to 40.8 ton/ha/year.

  4. Prediction of ozone pollution peaks in the Etang de Berre area; Prevision des pics de pollution par l'ozone dans la region de l'etang de Berre

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valfre, G.; Thieleke, R.; Leopold, A.; Mesbah, B.A. [AIRFOBEP, Association agreee de surveillance de la qualite de l' air, 13 - Martigues (France)

    1999-09-01

    Prediction of ozone pollution peaks is very useful in the procedure of people information, in particular sensitive persons, about photochemical pollution episodes occurrence. We have developed a technique to predict ozone pollution peaks in the Etang de Berre area, where air qualify monitoring is operated by the network AIRFOBEP (Association for air quality monitoring in the Etang de Berre and the west of Bouches-du-Rhone area). The technique indirectly models the regional photochemical pollution by the use of a set of linked binary logic tests. These tests are carried out on some relevant parameters. The selection of the most sensitive parameters for the prediction is done starting from: the background knowledge concerning the regional air pollution phenomena (experts experiences), the measurement data analysis. Characteristics of those parameters, like the time, the place of their measurement and their thresholds, are optimized with a simulation program, run on the five last years AIRFOBEP measurements data. Models elaborated with this technique have been tested during the 1998 summer. Results concerning both a D day and a (D+ 1) day prediction are good. They are consistent with the expected performances and with the five last years simulation results. (authors)

  5. Creep Rupture Life Prediction Based on Analysis of Large Creep Deformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    YE Wenming

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A creep rupture life prediction method for high temperature component was proposed. The method was based on a true stress-strain elastoplastic creep constitutive model and the large deformation finite element analysis method. This method firstly used the high-temperature tensile stress-strain curve expressed by true stress and strain and the creep curve to build materials' elastoplastic and creep constitutive model respectively, then used the large deformation finite element method to calculate the deformation response of high temperature component under a given load curve, finally the creep rupture life was determined according to the change trend of the responsive curve.The method was verified by durable test of TC11 titanium alloy notched specimens under 500 ℃, and was compared with the three creep rupture life prediction methods based on the small deformation analysis. Results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the high temperature creep response and long-term life of TC11 notched specimens, and the accuracy is better than that of the methods based on the average effective stress of notch ligament, the bone point stress and the fracture strain of the key point, which are all based on small deformation finite element analysis.

  6. Application of multi-criteria decision analysis in prediction of groundwater resources potential: A case of Oke-Ana, Ilesa Area Southwestern, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Akinlalu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater Potential of Oke-Ana area southwestern Nigeria have been evaluated using the integration of electrical resistivity method, remote sensing and geographic information systems. The effect of five hydrogeological indices, namely lineament density, drainage density, lithology, overburden thickness and aquifer layer resistivity on groundwater occurrence was established. Multi-criteria decision analysis technique was employed to assign weight to each of the index using the concept of analytical hierarchy process. The assigned weight was normalized and consistency ratio was established. In order to evaluate the groundwater potential of Oke-Ana, sixty-seven (67 vertical electrical sounding points were occupied. Ten curve types were delineated in the study area. The curve types vary from simple three layer A and H-type curves to the more complex four, five and six layer AA, HA, KH, QH, AKH, HKH, KHA and KHKH curves. Four subsurface geo-electric sequences of top soil, weathered layer, partially weathered/fractured basement and the fresh basement were delineated in the area. The analytical process assisted in classifying Oke-Ana into, low, medium and high groundwater potential zones. Validation of the model from well information and two aborted boreholes suggest 70% agreement.

  7. Prediction of the existence or fine-grained granite dykes in the Simpevarp area; Prediktering av foerekomst av finkorniga granitgaangar i Simpevarpsomraadet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mattsson, Haakan; Triumf, Carl-Axel [GeoVista AB, Luleaa (Sweden); Wahlgren, Carl-Henric [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2002-11-01

    Fine-grained granite dykes associated with a high fracture frequency occur in the bedrock of the Simpevarp region. In order to avoid problems in a future storage for nuclear waste it is important to find methods to detect areas where the dykes occur frequently. The aim of this project is to test the possibility to use airborne gamma ray spectrometry in the Simpevarp region to distinguish between different areas of the bedrock containing a varying frequency of fine-grained granite dykes. Investigations were also made to test if and how plastic deformation and a thin cover of moss affect the radiometric signature of the rocks. Ground measurements with a gamma ray spectrometer were performed on the islands of Aespoe, Aevroe and at the Simpevarp peninsula on different kinds of Smaaland granite with varying frequencies of fine-grained granite dykes. Reference measurements were performed on rocks without granite dykes. The bedrock at the measurement sites was geologically characterized in connection to the measurements. Air borne radiometric data (uranium, potassium and thorium) measured by the Geological Survey of Sweden in 1986 (flight altitude 30 m, point distance 40 m, line spacing 200 m) was compared to the existing bedrock map of the area and also to existing observation sites of fine-grained granite dykes. The ground measurements with gamma ray spectrometer clearly indicate that the fine-grained granite dykes have a specific radiometric signature compared to the granite-granodiorite at Aevroe and the quartzmonzodiorite-granodiorite at Aespoe. The main difference between the dykes and the other investigated rocks is seen in the thorium content, which is typically 3-5 times greater in the fine grained granite dykes. A thin cover of moss does not seem to significantly affect the radiometric signal of the bedrock, and neither does plastic deformation. However, the number of measurements on deformed and on covered rocks is low. The radiometric anomaly pattern shown in

  8. Slope stability of rectify coal waste embankments on mining areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klossek, C.

    1999-01-01

    The paper is of a theoretical and experimental character, focusing on the results of field tests on the load-bearing capacity and stability of high (> 20m.) transportation embankments rectified with coal waste. The embankments are located in industrial areas subjected to the intense impact of underground mining. Such phenomena are also accompanied by essential changes in the water conditions of the subsoil. The results of model tests by SIR geo-radar used to non-damaging estimation of the suffusion occurring in the embankment constructed on non-waste materials are discussed. The numerical assessment of the filtration process has been based on the MFE and MBE programs, which are extended calculation procedures enabling the overall estimation of the redistribution of all the stress-strain components in the structure, in consideration of any hypothesis of the boundary state

  9. APPROBATION OF THE NUMERICAL METHOD OF CALCULATING THE DYNAMIC STRESS-STRAIN STATE OF THE THREE-DIMENSIONAL SYSTEM “FOUNDATION – FACILITY OF THE PRESSURE FRONT HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING STRUCTURE – WATER RESERVOIR” ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE CLUSTER-REGULATOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry S. Dmitriev

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In the article, the results of approbation of the developed technique of the refined numerical simula-tion of the dynamic stress-strain state of the three-dimensional system “ground base (earth foundation – reser-voir – construction of the pressure head of the hydraulic system” under seismic influences. A comparison is made between two different ways of modeling the fluid interacting with the structure and the base of the hydroe-lectric power station. The issues of choosing the dimensions of the base unit and taking into account the inertial load from it, as well as the method of determining the initial seismic action, are touched upon.

  10. FORECAST OF INFLUENCING THE UNDERGROUND COMPLEX CONSTRUCTION ON A CONTEXT AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orekhov Vyacheslav Valentinovich

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The present paper is concerned with the method, research objective and the results of numerical simulation of change of stress-strain behaviour of soil masses when constructing underground complex. In order to get consistent results of forecast, all major factors affecting the results of design studies have been taken into account, including spatial performance of soil mass, enclosure structure and an adjacent context area, phasing of construction, site investigation, initial stress-strain behaviour of soil mass and elasto-plastic strain of soils. The authors give assessment of influence of pit excavation and subsequent construction on a context adjacent area and construction of an underground railroad. Results of the studies show that the proposed construction of an underground complex on the Tverskaya Zastava square would not have a significant impact on the surrounding buildings and subway structures. The spreading of the subsidence crater around the excavating pit is projected by 30...80 m. The ground lift directly below the bottom of the excavation pit in the places of metro stations and transport tunnels will be about 0.1 cm.

  11. Climate prediction and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Myles

    2010-05-01

    Climate prediction is generally accepted to be one of the grand challenges of the Geophysical Sciences. What is less widely acknowledged is that fundamental issues have yet to be resolved concerning the nature of the challenge, even after decades of research in this area. How do we verify or falsify a probabilistic forecast of a singular event such as anthropogenic warming over the 21st century? How do we determine the information content of a climate forecast? What does it mean for a modelling system to be "good enough" to forecast a particular variable? How will we know when models and forecasting systems are "good enough" to provide detailed forecasts of weather at specific locations or, for example, the risks associated with global geo-engineering schemes. This talk will provide an overview of these questions in the light of recent developments in multi-decade climate forecasting, drawing on concepts from information theory, machine learning and statistics. I will draw extensively but not exclusively from the experience of the climateprediction.net project, running multiple versions of climate models on personal computers.

  12. Modifying effect of COMT gene polymorphism and a predictive role for proteomics analysis in children's intelligence in endemic fluorosis area in Tianjin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shun; Zhang, Xiaofei; Liu, Hongliang; Qu, Weidong; Guan, Zhizhong; Zeng, Qiang; Jiang, Chunyang; Gao, Hui; Zhang, Cheng; Lei, Rongrong; Xia, Tao; Wang, Zhenglun; Yang, Lu; Chen, Yihu; Wu, Xue; Cui, Yushan; Yu, Linyu; Wang, Aiguo

    2015-04-01

    Cumulative fluoride exposure has adverse influences on children's intelligence quotient (IQ). In addition, catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene Val158Met polymorphism (rs4680) is associated with cognitive performance. This study aimed to evaluate the associations of COMT polymorphism and alterations of protein profiles with children's intelligence in endemic fluorosis area. We recruited 180 schoolchildren (10-12 years old) from high fluoride exposure (1.40 mg/l) and control areas (0.63 mg/l) in Tianjin City, China. The children's IQ, fluoride contents in drinking water (W-F), serum (S-F), and urine (U-F); serum thyroid hormone levels, COMT Val158Met polymorphism, and plasma proteomic profiling were determined. Significant high levels of W-F, S-F, U-F, along with poor IQ scores were observed in the high fluoride exposure group compared with those in control (all P intelligence, whereas the COMT polymorphism may increase the susceptibility to the deficits in IQ due to fluoride exposure. Moreover, the proteomic analysis can provide certain basis for identifying the early biological markers of fluorosis among children. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Area under the curve predictions of dalbavancin, a new lipoglycopeptide agent, using the end of intravenous infusion concentration data point by regression analyses such as linear, log-linear and power models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhamidipati, Ravi Kanth; Syed, Muzeeb; Mullangi, Ramesh; Srinivas, Nuggehally

    2018-02-01

    1. Dalbavancin, a lipoglycopeptide, is approved for treating gram-positive bacterial infections. Area under plasma concentration versus time curve (AUC inf ) of dalbavancin is a key parameter and AUC inf /MIC ratio is a critical pharmacodynamic marker. 2. Using end of intravenous infusion concentration (i.e. C max ) C max versus AUC inf relationship for dalbavancin was established by regression analyses (i.e. linear, log-log, log-linear and power models) using 21 pairs of subject data. 3. The predictions of the AUC inf were performed using published C max data by application of regression equations. The quotient of observed/predicted values rendered fold difference. The mean absolute error (MAE)/root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r) were used in the assessment. 4. MAE and RMSE values for the various models were comparable. The C max versus AUC inf exhibited excellent correlation (r > 0.9488). The internal data evaluation showed narrow confinement (0.84-1.14-fold difference) with a RMSE models predicted AUC inf with a RMSE of 3.02-27.46% with fold difference largely contained within 0.64-1.48. 5. Regardless of the regression models, a single time point strategy of using C max (i.e. end of 30-min infusion) is amenable as a prospective tool for predicting AUC inf of dalbavancin in patients.

  14. Surface drift prediction in the Adriatic Sea using hyper-ensemble statistics on atmospheric, ocean and wave models: Uncertainties and probability distribution areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rixen, M.; Ferreira-Coelho, E.; Signell, R.

    2008-01-01

    Despite numerous and regular improvements in underlying models, surface drift prediction in the ocean remains a challenging task because of our yet limited understanding of all processes involved. Hence, deterministic approaches to the problem are often limited by empirical assumptions on underlying physics. Multi-model hyper-ensemble forecasts, which exploit the power of an optimal local combination of available information including ocean, atmospheric and wave models, may show superior forecasting skills when compared to individual models because they allow for local correction and/or bias removal. In this work, we explore in greater detail the potential and limitations of the hyper-ensemble method in the Adriatic Sea, using a comprehensive surface drifter database. The performance of the hyper-ensembles and the individual models are discussed by analyzing associated uncertainties and probability distribution maps. Results suggest that the stochastic method may reduce position errors significantly for 12 to 72??h forecasts and hence compete with pure deterministic approaches. ?? 2007 NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC).

  15. Methodology for predicting sequences of mean monthly clearness index and daily solar radiation data in remote areas: Application for sizing a stand-alone PV system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mellit, A. [Department of Electronics, Institute of Sciences Engineering, Centre University of Medea, Medea 26000 (Algeria); Department of Electronics, Faculty of Science Engineering, Blida University, Blida 09000 (Algeria); Kalogirou, S.A. [Higher Technical Institute, P.O. Box 20423, Nicosia 2152 (Cyprus); Shaari, S. [Faculty of Applied Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor (Malaysia); Salhi, H. [Department of Electronics, Faculty of Science Engineering, Blida University, Blida 09000 (Algeria); Hadj Arab, A. [Development Centre of Renewable Energy (CDER), P.O. Box 62, Bouzareah, Algiers 16000 (Algeria); Departamento de Energias Renerables, CIEMAT, Arda Complutense, 22, Madrid 28040 (Spain)

    2008-07-15

    In this paper, a suitable adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model is presented for estimating sequences of mean monthly clearness index (anti K{sub t}) and total solar radiation data in isolated sites based on geographical coordinates. The magnitude of solar radiation is the most important parameter for sizing photovoltaic (PV) systems. The ANFIS model is trained by using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) based on fuzzy logic (FL) rules. The inputs of the ANFIS are the latitude, longitude, and altitude, while the outputs are the 12-values of mean monthly clearness index anti K{sub t}. These data have been collected from 60 locations in Algeria. The results show that the performance of the proposed approach in the prediction of mean monthly clearness index anti K{sub t} is favorably compared to the measured values. The root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and estimated values varies between 0.0215 and 0.0235 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is less than 2.2%. In addition, a comparison between the results obtained by the ANFIS model and artificial neural network (ANN) models, is presented in order to show the advantage of the proposed method. An example for sizing a stand-alone PV system is also presented. This technique has been applied to Algerian locations, but it can be generalized for any geographical position. It can also be used for estimating other meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity and wind speed. (author)

  16. Disruption to radiation therapy sessions due to anxiety among patients receiving radiation therapy to the head and neck area can be predicted using patient self-report measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clover, Kerrie; Oultram, Sharon; Adams, Catherine; Cross, Laraine; Findlay, Naomi; Ponman, Leah

    2011-12-01

    This analysis sought to determine whether patient self-report measures were associated with disruption to radiation therapy sessions due to anxiety among cancer patients undergoing radiation therapy to the head and neck region. A cohort of patients undergoing radiation therapy to the head and neck region at a major regional radiation oncology treatment centre (ROTC) in Australia completed self-report measures of anxiety, history of panic and fears relevant to use of an immobilising mask. The treating Radiation Therapist (RT) rated the level of session disruption due to patient anxiety during the Computerised Tomography/Simulation (CT/Sim) (baseline) session and first treatment session. Complete data were obtained for 90 patients. RTs rated 11 and 24% of patients as having some level of session disruption session due to anxiety at baseline and Treatment 1, respectively. Five factors were significantly associated with session disruption at baseline in bivariate analyses: currently taking psycho-active medication (p=0.008); fear of enclosed spaces (p=0.006); fear of face being covered up (p=0.006); fear of movement restriction (p=0.041) and ever had an anxiety attack (p=0.034). Sensitivity ranged from 0.57 to 0.75 and specificity ranged from 0.68 to 0.90. Only session disruption at baseline predicted disruption at Treatment 1 (pdisruption and patient self-report measures which might be used to flag patients for prophylactic treatment. Further development and replication in a larger sample is warranted before introduction of these measures into routine practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Seroprevalence of Antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum Sporozoite Antigens as Predictive Disease Transmission Markers in an Area of Ghana with Seasonal Malaria Transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwadwo A Kusi

    Full Text Available As an increasing number of malaria-endemic countries approach the disease elimination phase, sustenance of control efforts and effective monitoring are necessary to ensure success. Mathematical models that estimate anti-parasite antibody seroconversion rates are gaining relevance as more sensitive transmission intensity estimation tools. Models however estimate yearly seroconversion and seroreversion rates and usually predict long term changes in transmission, occurring years before the time of sampling. Another challenge is the identification of appropriate antigen targets since specific antibody levels must directly reflect changes in transmission patterns. We therefore investigated the potential of antibodies to sporozoite and blood stage antigens for detecting short term differences in malaria transmission in two communities in Northern Ghana with marked, seasonal transmission.Cross-sectional surveys were conducted during the rainy and dry seasons in two communities, one in close proximity to an irrigation dam and the other at least 20 Km away from the dam. Antibodies against the sporozoite-specific antigens circumsporozoite protein (CSP and Cell traversal for ookinetes and sporozoites (CelTOS and the classical blood stage antigen apical membrane antigen 1 (AMA1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Antibody levels and seroprevalence were compared between surveys and between study communities. Antibody seroprevalence data were fitted to a modified reversible catalytic model to estimate the seroconversion and seroreversion rates.Changes in sporozoite-specific antibody levels and seroprevalence directly reflected differences in parasite prevalence between the rainy and dry seasons and hence the extent of malaria transmission. Seroconversion rate estimates from modelled seroprevalence data did not however support the above observation.The data confirms the potential utility of sporozoite-specific antigens as useful markers for monitoring short term

  18. Applicability of a Single Time Point Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Concentration Curve of Linezolid in Patients: Superiority of Ctrough- over Cmax-Derived Linear Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-03-01

    Linezolid, a oxazolidinone, was the first in class to be approved for the treatment of bacterial infections arising from both susceptible and resistant strains of Gram-positive bacteria. Since overt exposure of linezolid may precipitate serious toxicity issues, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may be required in certain situations, especially in patients who are prescribed other co-medications. Using appropriate oral pharmacokinetic data (single dose and steady state) for linezolid, both maximum plasma drug concentration (Cmax) versus area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and minimum plasma drug concentration (Cmin) versus AUC relationship was established by linear regression models. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax or Cmin data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two models. The Cmax versus AUC and trough plasma concentration (Ctrough) versus AUC models displayed excellent correlation, with r values of >0.9760. However, linezolid AUC values were predicted to be within the narrower boundary of 0.76 to 1.5-fold by a higher percentage by the Ctrough (78.3%) versus Cmax model (48.2%). The Ctrough model showed superior correlation of predicted versus observed values and RMSE (r = 0.9031; 28.54%, respectively) compared with the Cmax model (r = 0.5824; 61.34%, respectively). A single time point strategy of using Ctrough level is possible as a prospective tool to measure the AUC of linezolid in the patient population.

  19. Prediction and evaluation of nonlinear site response with potentially liquefiable layers in the area of Nafplion (Peloponnesus, Greece for a repeat of historical earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. K. Karastathis

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We examine the possible non-linear behaviour of potentially liquefiable layers at selected sites located within the expansion area of the town of Nafplion, East Peloponnese, Greece. Input motion is computed for three scenario earthquakes, selected on the basis of historical seismicity data, using a stochastic strong ground motion simulation technique, which takes into account the finite dimensions of the earthquake sources. Site-specific ground acceleration synthetics and soil profiles are then used to evaluate the liquefaction potential at the sites of interest. The activation scenario of the Iria fault, which is the closest one to Nafplion (M=6.4, is found to be the most hazardous in terms of liquefaction initiation. In this scenario almost all the examined sites exhibit liquefaction features at depths of 6–12 m. For scenario earthquakes at two more distant seismic sources (Epidaurus fault – M6.3; Xylokastro fault – M6.7 strong ground motion amplification phenomena by the shallow soft soil layer are expected to be observed.

  20. Reduced uncertainty of regional scale CLM predictions of net carbon fluxes and leaf area indices with estimated plant-specific parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Hanna; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Han, Xujun; Baatz, Roland; Montzka, Carsten; Schmidt, Marius; Vereecken, Harry

    2016-04-01

    Reliable estimates of carbon fluxes and states at regional scales are required to reduce uncertainties in regional carbon balance estimates and to support decision making in environmental politics. In this work the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5-BGC) was applied at a high spatial resolution (1 km2) for the Rur catchment in western Germany. In order to improve the model-data consistency of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and leaf area index (LAI) for this study area, five plant functional type (PFT)-specific CLM4.5-BGC parameters were estimated with time series of half-hourly NEE data for one year in 2011/2012, using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The parameters were estimated separately for four different plant functional types (needleleaf evergreen temperate tree, broadleaf deciduous temperate tree, C3-grass and C3-crop) at four different sites. The four sites are located inside or close to the Rur catchment. We evaluated modeled NEE for one year in 2012/2013 with NEE measured at seven eddy covariance sites in the catchment, including the four parameter estimation sites. Modeled LAI was evaluated by means of LAI derived from remotely sensed RapidEye images of about 18 days in 2011/2012. Performance indices were based on a comparison between measurements and (i) a reference run with CLM default parameters, and (ii) a 60 instance CLM ensemble with parameters sampled from the DREAM posterior probability density functions (pdfs). The difference between the observed and simulated NEE sum reduced 23% if estimated parameters instead of default parameters were used as input. The mean absolute difference between modeled and measured LAI was reduced by 59% on average. Simulated LAI was not only improved in terms of the absolute value but in some cases also in terms of the timing (beginning of vegetation onset), which was directly related to a substantial improvement of the NEE estimates in

  1. Rivers and flooded areas identified by medium-resolution remote sensing improve risk prediction of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weerapong Thanapongtharm

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Thailand experienced several epidemic waves of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5N1 between 2004 and 2005. This study investigated the role of water in the landscape, which has not been previously assessed because of a lack of high-resolution information on the distribution of flooded land at the time of the epidemic. Nine Landsat 7- Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus scenes covering 174,610 km2 were processed using k-means unsupervised classification to map the distribution of flooded areas as well as permanent lakes and reservoirs at the time of the main epidemic HPAI H5N1 wave of October 2004. These variables, together with other factors previously identified as significantly associated with risk, were entered into an autologistic regression model in order to quantify the gain in risk explanation over previously published models. We found that, in addition to other factors previously identified as associated with risk, the proportion of land covered by flooding along with expansion of rivers and streams, derived from an existing, sub-district level (administrative level no. 3 geographical information system database, was a highly significant risk factor in this 2004 HPAI epidemic. These results suggest that water-borne transmission could have partly contributed to the spread of HPAI H5N1 during the epidemic. Future work stemming from these results should involve studies where the actual distribution of small canals, rivers, ponds, rice paddy fields and farms are mapped and tested against farm-level data with respect to HPAI H5N1.

  2. Application of State of the Art Modeling Techniques to Predict Flooding and Waves for a Coastal Area within a Protected Bay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. Spaulding

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs are developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA to provide guidance in establishing the risk to structures and infrastructure from storm surge sand associated waves in the coastal zone. The maps are used by state agencies and municipalities to help guide coastal planning and establish the minimum elevation and construction standards for new or substantially improved structures. A summary of the methods used and a comparison with the results of 2013 FIRM mapping are presented for Warwick, Rhode Island (RI, a coastal community located within Narragansett Bay. Because of its location, Warwick is protected from significant coastal erosion and wave attacks, but is subject to surge amplification. Concerns surrounding the FEMA methods used in the 2013 FIRM analysis are put in context with the National Research Council’s (NRC 2009 review of the FEMA coastal mapping program. New mapping is then performed using state of the art, fully coupled surge and wave modeling, and data analysis methods, to address the NRC concerns. The new maps and methodologies are in compliance with FEMA regulations and guidelines. This new approach makes extensive use of the numerical modeling results from the recent US Army Corp of Engineers, North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS, 2015. Revised flooding maps are presented and compared to the 2013 FIRM maps, to provide insight into the differences. The new maps highlight the importance of developing better estimates of surge dynamics and the advancement in nearshore mapping of waves in flood inundated areas by the use of state of the art, two-dimensional, wave transformation models.

  3. Preliminary results of an attempt to predict over apron occupational exposure of cardiologists from cardiac fluoroscopy procedures based on DAP (dose area product) values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toossi, Mohammad Taghi Bahreyni; Mehrpouyan, Mohammad; Nademi, Hossein; Fardid, Reza

    2015-03-01

    This study is an effort to propose a mathematical relation between the occupational exposure measured by a dosimeter worn on a lead apron in the chest region of a cardiologist and the dose area product (DAP) recorded by a meter attached to the X-ray tube. We aimed to determine factors by which DAP values attributed to patient exposure could be converted to the over-apron entrance surface air kerma incurred by cardiologists during an angiographic procedure. A Rando phantom representing a patient was exposed by an X-ray tube from 77 pre-defined directions. DAP value for each exposure angle was recorded. Cardiologist exposure was measured by a Radcal ionization chamber 10X5-180 positioned on a second phantom representing the physician. The exposure conversion factor was determined as the quotient of over apron exposure by DAP value. To verify the validity of this method, the over-apron exposure of a cardiologist was measured using the ionization chamber while performing coronary angiography procedures on 45 patients weighing on average 75 ± 5 kg. DAP values for the corresponding procedures were also obtained. Conversion factors obtained from phantom exposure were applied to the patient DAP values to calculate physician exposure. Mathematical analysis of our results leads us to conclude that a linear relationship exists between two sets of data: (a) cardiologist exposure measured directly by Radcal & DAP values recorded by the X-ray machine system (R (2) = 0.88), (b) specialist measured and estimated exposure derived from DAP values (R (2) = 0.91). The results demonstrate that cardiologist occupational exposure can be derived from patient data accurately.

  4. Testing of a JEF-1 based WIMS-D cross section library for migration area and k-infinity predictions for LWHCR lattices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelloni, S.; Stepanek, J.

    1987-01-01

    The cell code WIMSD4 is used for the analysis of PROTEUS-LWHCR experiments. A library for this code which is based on the European evaluation JEF-1 was produced at EIR using the Los Alamos NJOY system with its module WIMSR and the Canadian management code WILMA. In general, this library delivered more accurate eigenvalues and reaction rates than the WIMS-Standard and WIMS81 libraries did in comparison to experimental values from PROTEUS-LWHCR Cores 1-3. However, large discrepancies (up to about 10%) occured between calculated migration areas (M 2 ). Additional investigations have been undertaken to clarify this problem, since theoretical M 2 -values are needed for deducing k-infinity in the experiments. This has been done in the context of calculations for a reference LWHCR test lattice. The following major reasons for these deviations were found. First, the self-scattering term in non-moderators (P 0 matrix) in the JEF-1 library was not transport corrected. Second, Standard and JEF-1 libraries use infinite dilute cross sections for 238 U, whereas the WIMS81 library uses fully shielded cross sections. Third, the standard library uses the 'row' formula for the transport correction, whereas the 'inflow' formula is applied in the case of JEF-1 and WIMS81 libraries. Lastly, oxygen and 238 U scattering cross sections in the fast energy range are smaller in the case of the WIMS81 library. Differences in calculated k-infinity values between the currently used library and WIMS81 (up to 3%) come (in order of importance for the reference LWHCR lattice) mainly from resonance cross sections for 240 Pu capture, 238 U capture and 239 Pu fission. Recommendations have been made for generating a new JEF-1 library using updated versions of WIMSR and WILMA. (author)

  5. Prediction of elastic-plastic response of structural elements subjected to cyclic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Haddad, M.H.; Samaan, S.

    1985-01-01

    A simplified elastic-plastic analysis is developed to predict stress strain and force deformation response of structural metallic elements subjected to irregular cyclic loadings. In this analysis a simple elastic-plastic method for predicting the skeleton force deformation curve is developed. In this method, elastic and fully plastic solutions are first obtained for unknown quantities, such as deflection or local strains. Elastic and fully plastic contributions are then combined to obtain an elastic-plastic solution. The skeleton curve is doubled to establish the shape of the hysteresis loop. The complete force deformation response can therefore be simulated through reversal by reversal in accordance with hysteresis looping and material memory. Several examples of structural elements with various cross sections made from various materials and subjected to irregular cyclic loadings, are analysed. A close agreement is obtained between experimental results found in the literature and present predictions. (orig.)

  6. Settlement Prediction of Footings Using VS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyung Ik CHO

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The shear wave velocity (VS is a key parameter for estimating the deformation characteristics of soil. In order to predict the settlement of shallow footings in granular soil, the VS and the concept of Schmertmann’s framework were adopted. The VS was utilized to represent soil stiffness instead of cone tip resistance (qc because the VS can be directly related to the small-strain shear modulus. By combining the VS measured in the field and the modulus reduction curve measured in the laboratory, the deformation characteristics of soil can be reliably estimated. Vertical stress increments were determined using two different profiles of the strain influence factor (Iz proposed in Schmertmann’s method and that calculated from the theory of elasticity. The corresponding modulus variation was determined by considering the stress level and strain at each depth. This state-dependent stress-strain relationship was utilized to calculate the settlement of footings based on the theory of elasticity. To verify the developed method, geotechnical centrifuge tests were carried out. The VS profiles were measured before each loading test, and the load-settlement curves were obtained during the tests. Comparisons between the measured and estimated load-settlement curves showed that the developed method adequately predicts the settlement of footings, especially for over-consolidated ground conditions.

  7. Control Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This feature class represents electric power Control Areas. Control Areas, also known as Balancing Authority Areas, are controlled by Balancing Authorities, who are...

  8. Dynamic contrast-enhanced perfusion area-detector CT assessed with various mathematical models: Its capability for therapeutic outcome prediction for non-small cell lung cancer patients with chemoradiotherapy as compared with that of FDG-PET/CT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohno, Yoshiharu, E-mail: yosirad@kobe-u.ac.jp [Division of Functional and Diagnostic Imaging Research, Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan); Advanced Biomedical Imaging Research Center, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan); Fujisawa, Yasuko [Toshiba Medical Systems Corporation, Otawara (Japan); Koyama, Hisanobu; Kishida, Yuji; Seki, Shinichiro [Division of Radiology, Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan); Sugihara, Naoki [Toshiba Medical Systems Corporation, Otawara (Japan); Yoshikawa, Takeshi [Division of Functional and Diagnostic Imaging Research, Department of Radiology, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan); Advanced Biomedical Imaging Research Center, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe (Japan)

    2017-01-15

    Purpose: To directly compare the capability of dynamic first-pass contrast-enhanced (CE-) perfusion area-detector CT (ADCT) and PET/CT for early prediction of treatment response, disease progression and overall survival of non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Materials and methods: Fifty-three consecutive Stage IIIB NSCLC patients who had undergone PET/CT, dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT, chemoradiotherapy, and follow-up examination were enrolled in this study. They were divided into two groups: 1) complete or partial response (CR + PR) and 2) stable or progressive disease (SD + PD). Pulmonary arterial and systemic arterial perfusions and total perfusion were assessed at targeted lesions with the dual-input maximum slope method, permeability surface and distribution volume with the Patlak plot method, tumor perfusion with the single-input maximum slope method, and SUV{sub max}, and results were averaged to determine final values for each patient. Next, step-wise regression analysis was used to determine which indices were the most useful for predicting therapeutic effect. Finally, overall survival of responders and non-responders assessed by using the indices that had a significant effect on prediction of therapeutic outcome was statistically compared. Results: The step-wise regression test showed that therapeutic effect (r{sup 2} = 0.63, p = 0.01) was significantly affected by the following three factors in order of magnitude of impact: systemic arterial perfusion, total perfusion, and SUV{sub max}. Mean overall survival showed a significant difference for total perfusion (p = 0.003) and systemic arterial perfusion (p = 0.04). Conclusion: Dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT as well as PET/CT are useful for treatment response prediction in NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy.

  9. Dynamic contrast-enhanced perfusion area-detector CT assessed with various mathematical models: Its capability for therapeutic outcome prediction for non-small cell lung cancer patients with chemoradiotherapy as compared with that of FDG-PET/CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohno, Yoshiharu; Fujisawa, Yasuko; Koyama, Hisanobu; Kishida, Yuji; Seki, Shinichiro; Sugihara, Naoki; Yoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: To directly compare the capability of dynamic first-pass contrast-enhanced (CE-) perfusion area-detector CT (ADCT) and PET/CT for early prediction of treatment response, disease progression and overall survival of non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Materials and methods: Fifty-three consecutive Stage IIIB NSCLC patients who had undergone PET/CT, dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT, chemoradiotherapy, and follow-up examination were enrolled in this study. They were divided into two groups: 1) complete or partial response (CR + PR) and 2) stable or progressive disease (SD + PD). Pulmonary arterial and systemic arterial perfusions and total perfusion were assessed at targeted lesions with the dual-input maximum slope method, permeability surface and distribution volume with the Patlak plot method, tumor perfusion with the single-input maximum slope method, and SUV max , and results were averaged to determine final values for each patient. Next, step-wise regression analysis was used to determine which indices were the most useful for predicting therapeutic effect. Finally, overall survival of responders and non-responders assessed by using the indices that had a significant effect on prediction of therapeutic outcome was statistically compared. Results: The step-wise regression test showed that therapeutic effect (r 2 = 0.63, p = 0.01) was significantly affected by the following three factors in order of magnitude of impact: systemic arterial perfusion, total perfusion, and SUV max . Mean overall survival showed a significant difference for total perfusion (p = 0.003) and systemic arterial perfusion (p = 0.04). Conclusion: Dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT as well as PET/CT are useful for treatment response prediction in NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy.

  10. Dynamic contrast-enhanced perfusion area-detector CT assessed with various mathematical models: Its capability for therapeutic outcome prediction for non-small cell lung cancer patients with chemoradiotherapy as compared with that of FDG-PET/CT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohno, Yoshiharu; Fujisawa, Yasuko; Koyama, Hisanobu; Kishida, Yuji; Seki, Shinichiro; Sugihara, Naoki; Yoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-01-01

    To directly compare the capability of dynamic first-pass contrast-enhanced (CE-) perfusion area-detector CT (ADCT) and PET/CT for early prediction of treatment response, disease progression and overall survival of non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Fifty-three consecutive Stage IIIB NSCLC patients who had undergone PET/CT, dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT, chemoradiotherapy, and follow-up examination were enrolled in this study. They were divided into two groups: 1) complete or partial response (CR+PR) and 2) stable or progressive disease (SD+PD). Pulmonary arterial and systemic arterial perfusions and total perfusion were assessed at targeted lesions with the dual-input maximum slope method, permeability surface and distribution volume with the Patlak plot method, tumor perfusion with the single-input maximum slope method, and SUV max , and results were averaged to determine final values for each patient. Next, step-wise regression analysis was used to determine which indices were the most useful for predicting therapeutic effect. Finally, overall survival of responders and non-responders assessed by using the indices that had a significant effect on prediction of therapeutic outcome was statistically compared. The step-wise regression test showed that therapeutic effect (r 2 =0.63, p=0.01) was significantly affected by the following three factors in order of magnitude of impact: systemic arterial perfusion, total perfusion, and SUV max . Mean overall survival showed a significant difference for total perfusion (p=0.003) and systemic arterial perfusion (p=0.04). Dynamic first-pass CE-perfusion ADCT as well as PET/CT are useful for treatment response prediction in NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A molecular-mechanics based finite element model for strength prediction of single wall carbon nanotubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meo, M.; Rossi, M.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this work was to develop a finite element model based on molecular mechanics to predict the ultimate strength and strain of single wallet carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). The interactions between atoms was modelled by combining the use of non-linear elastic and torsional elastic spring. In particular, with this approach, it was tried to combine the molecular mechanics approach with finite element method without providing any not-physical data on the interactions between the carbon atoms, i.e. the CC-bond inertia moment or Young's modulus definition. Mechanical properties as Young's modulus, ultimate strength and strain for several CNTs were calculated. Further, a stress-strain curve for large deformation (up to 70%) is reported for a nanotube Zig-Zag (9,0). The results showed that good agreement with the experimental and numerical results of several authors was obtained. A comparison of the mechanical properties of nanotubes with same diameter and different chirality was carried out. Finally, the influence of the presence of defects on the strength and strain of a SWNT was also evaluated. In particular, the stress-strain curve a nanotube with one-vacancy defect was evaluated and compared with the curve of a pristine one, showing a reduction of the ultimate strength and strain for the defected nanotube. The FE model proposed demonstrate to be a reliable tool to simulate mechanical behaviour of carbon nanotubes both in the linear elastic field and the non-linear elastic field

  12. Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gormley, Kate S G; Porter, Joanne S; Bell, Michael C; Hull, Angela D; Sanderson, William G

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer). The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC) was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009) and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100). A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool".

  13. Predictive habitat modelling as a tool to assess the change in distribution and extent of an OSPAR priority habitat under an increased ocean temperature scenario: consequences for marine protected area networks and management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate S G Gormley

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were to determine the extent and distribution of an OSPAR priority habitat under current baseline ocean temperatures; to illustrate the prospect for habitat loss under a changing ocean temperature scenario; and to demonstrate the potential application of predictive habitat mapping in "future-proofing" conservation and biodiversity management. Maxent modelling and GIS environmental envelope analysis of the biogenic bed forming species, Modiolus modiolus was carried out. The Maxent model was tested and validated using 75%/25% training/test occurrence records and validated against two sampling biases (the whole study area and a 20km buffer. The model was compared to the envelope analysis and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under the curve; AUC was evaluated. The performance of the Maxent model was rated as 'good' to 'excellent' on all replicated runs and low variation in the runs was recorded from the AUC values. The extent of "most suitable", "less suitable" and "unsuitable" habitat was calculated for the baseline year (2009 and the projected increased ocean temperature scenarios (2030, 2050, 2080 and 2100. A loss of 100% of "most suitable" habitat was reported by 2080. Maintaining a suitable level of protection of marine habitats/species of conservation importance may require management of the decline and migration rather than maintenance of present extent. Methods applied in this study provide the initial application of a plausible "conservation management tool".

  14. Computationally efficient prediction of area per lipid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chaban, Vitaly V.

    2014-01-01

    dynamics increases exponentially with respect to temperature. APL dependence on temperature is linear over an entire temperature range. I provide numerical evidence that thermal expansion coefficient of a lipid bilayer can be computed at elevated temperatures and extrapolated to the temperature of interest...

  15. The roles of the pfcrt 76T and pfmdr1 86Y mutations, immunity and the initial level of parasitaemia, in predicting the outcome of chloroquine treatment in two areas with different transmission intensities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khalil, I F; Alifrangis, M; Tarimo, D S

    2005-01-01

    The resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to chloroquine (CQ) is probably mediated by point mutations in two genes: pfcrt and pfmdr1. The aim of the present study was to investigate, in patients treated with CQ, the association between host factors, such as immunity and initial level of parasitaemia......, and the ability to clear P. falciparum parasites carrying the key chloroquine-resistance (CQR) mutations, pfcrt 76T and pfmdr1 86Y. Identical CQ-efficacy trials were performed in 51 young children (aged ..., such as level of parasitaemia when treated and age, are also important. The 76T and 86Y alleles could still be used as predictive markers for CQR, in non-immune individuals and low-transmission areas....

  16. Developing Sediment Transport and Dredging Prediction Model of Ohio River at Olmsted Locks and Dams Area using HEC-RAS (1D/2D)By Ganesh Raj Ghimire1 and Bruce A. Devantier 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, G. R.

    2015-12-01

    Sediment deposition is a serious issue in the construction and operation of large reservoir and inland navigation projects in the United States and around the world. Olmsted Locks and Dams in the Ohio River navigation system is facing similar challenges of huge sediment deposition during the ongoing in-wet construction methodology since 1993. HEC-RAS 5.0 integrated with ArcGIS, will be used to yield unsteady 2D hydrodynamic model of Ohio River at Olmsted area. Velocity, suspended sediment, bed sediment and hydrographic survey data acquired from public archives of USGS and USACE Louisville District will be input into the model. Calibration and validation of model will be performed against the measured stage, flow and velocity data. It will be subjected to completely unsteady 1D sediment transport modeling new to HEC-RAS 5.0 which incorporates sediment load and bed gradation via a DSS file, commercial dredging and BSTEM model. Sediment model will be calibrated to replicate the historical bed volume changes. Excavated cross-sections at Olmsted area will also be used to predict the sediment volume trapped inside the ditch over the period between excavations and placement of dam shells at site. Model will attempt to replicate historical dredging volume data and compare with the deposition volume from simulation model to formulate the dredging prediction model. Hence, the results of this research will generate a model that can form a basis for scheduling the dredging event prior to the placement of off-shore cast shells replacing the current as and when required approach of dredging plan. 1 Graduate Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Southern Illinois University Carbondale Carbondale, Illinois, 62901-6603 2 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Southern Illinois University Carbondale Carbondale, Illinois, 62901-6603

  17. Development of a high-throughput in vitro assay using a novel Caco-2/rat hepatocyte system for the prediction of oral plasma area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, K-C; Li, Cheng; Hsieh, Yunsheng; Montgomery, Diana; Liu, Tongtong; White, Ronald E

    2006-01-01

    Previously, we have shown that a novel Caco-2/human hepatocyte system is a useful model for the prediction of oral bioavailability in humans. In this study, we attempted to use a similar system in a high-throughput screening mode for the selection of new compound entities (NCE) in drug discovery. A total of 72 compounds randomly selected from three different chemotypes were dosed orally in rats. In vivo plasma area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) from 0-6 h of the parent compound was determined. The same compounds were also tested in the Caco-2/rat hepatocyte system. In vitro AUC from 0-3 h in the Caco-2 rat hepatocyte system was determined. The predictive usefulness of the Caco-2/rat hepatocyte system was evaluated by comparing the in vivo plasma AUC and the in vitro AUC. Linear regression analysis showed a reasonable correlation (R2 = 0.5) between the in vivo AUC and the in vitro AUC. Using 0.4 microM h in vivo AUC as a cut-off, compounds were categorized as either low or high AUC. The in vitro AUC successfully matched the corresponding in vivo category for sixty-three out of seventy-two compounds. The results presented in this study suggest that the Caco-2/rat hepatocyte system may be used as a high-throughput screen in drug discovery for pharmacokinetic behaviors of compounds in rats.

  18. Stage I surface crack formation in thermal fatigue: A predictive multi-scale approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osterstock, S.; Robertson, C.; Sauzay, M.; Aubin, V.; Degallaix, S.

    2010-01-01

    A multi-scale numerical model is developed, predicting the formation of stage I cracks, in thermal fatigue loading conditions. The proposed approach comprises 2 distinct calculation steps. Firstly, the number of cycles to micro-crack initiation is determined, in individual grains. The adopted initiation model depends on local stress-strain conditions, relative to sub-grain plasticity, grain orientation and grain deformation incompatibilities. Secondly, 2-4 grains long surface cracks (stage I) is predicted, by accounting for micro-crack coalescence, in 3 dimensions. The method described in this paper is applied to a 500 grains aggregate, loaded in representative thermal fatigue conditions. Preliminary results provide quantitative insight regarding position, density, spacing and orientations of stage I surface cracks and subsequent formation of crack networks. The proposed method is fully deterministic, provided all grain crystallographic orientations and micro-crack linking thresholds are specified. (authors)

  19. Predicting the mechanical behaviour of Kevlar/epoxy and carbon/epoxy filament-wound tubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazeneuve, C.; Joguet, P.; Maile, J. C.; Oytana, C.

    1992-11-01

    The axial, hoop and shear moduli and failure conditions of carbon/epoxy and Kevlar/epoxy filament-wound tubes have been determined through respective applications of internal pressure, tension and torsion. The introduction in the laminated plate theory of a gradual reduction in individual moduli makes it possible to overcome the limitations of the theory and enables accurate predictions to be made of the linear and non-linear stress/strain curves of 90 deg +/- 0/90 deg tubes. The existence of a dominant layer in the failure of the multilayered tubes has been shown experimentally. When associated with a failure criterion applied to the dominant layer, the new model permits the prediction of tube failure. Agreement between calculated and experimental data is better than 5 percent.

  20. Consistency between analytical and finite element predictions for safety of cylindrical pressure vessels at higher temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iancu, Otto Theodor

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of the plastic collapse load of cylindrical pressure vessels is very often made by using expensive Finite Element computations. The calculation of the collapse load requires an elastic-plastic material model and the consideration of non-linear geometry effects. The plastic collapse load causes overall structural instability and cannot be determined directly from a Finite Element analysis. In the present paper the plastic collapse load for a cylindrical pressure vessel is determined by an analytical method based on a linear elastic perfectly plastic material model. When plasticity occurs the material is considered to be incompressible and the tensor of plastic strains to be parallel to the stress deviator tensor. In this case the finite stress-strain relationships of Henkel can be used for calculating the pressure for which plastic flow occurs. The analytical results are completely confirmed by Finite Element predictions. (orig.)

  1. Features of formation of the stress-strain state of symmetric and asymmetric river valleys ОСОБЕННОСТИ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ НАПРЯЖЕННО-ДЕФОРМИРОВАННОГО СОСТОЯНИЯ СИММЕТРИЧНОЙ И АСИММЕТРИЧНОЙ РЕЧНОЙ ДОЛИНЫ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man’ko Artur Vladimirovich

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available River valleys take freakish shapes. In mountainous areas, river beds take the forms of canyons, gorges and valleys. In turn, a valley may be symmetric or asymmetric. D.G. Panov is the developer of the valley classification. The valley is a linearly extended relief pattern similar to Latin letter “V” in shape. Let’s consider the two valleys from the viewpoint of geomechanics. In research, it is necessary to define the optimal position of an arch dam with account for its stress-strain state that may develop in the course of its construction and further operation. As an example, we took a hypothetical mountain river having a high-pressure hydroelectric power plant (HPP with a concrete arch dam.The first series of calculations was aimed at the study of the process of development of the stress-strain state of the massif based on the symmetrical valley slope inclination angle. The second series of calculations was aimed at the study of development of the stress-strained state of the massif depending on slope inclination angle of an asymmetric valley. The following angle values were randomly chosen: 10°, 15°, 20°, 25°,30°. Additional analysis of a slope having the inclination angles of 35°, 37° and40° was performed. At 35°, the slope was steady with a big safety factor, at 37°, the slope was steady, too, but the safety factor was below 10 %, and at 40°, the slope collapsed. The Mora Pendent model was employed for modeling purposes.Рассмотрена методика выбора речной долины для оптимальной геомеханической работы высоконапорных арочных плотин. Определены закономерности формирования НДС массива вокруг плотины до и после ее строительства.

  2. Re-evaluation of lung to thorax transverse area ratio immediately before birth in predicting postnatal short-term outcomes of fetuses with isolated left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia: A single center analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kido, Saki; Hidaka, Nobuhiro; Sato, Yuka; Fujita, Yasuyuki; Miyoshi, Kina; Nagata, Kouji; Taguchi, Tomoaki; Kato, Kiyoko

    2018-05-01

    We aimed to investigate whether the lung-to-thorax transverse area ratio (LTR) immediately before birth is of diagnostic value for the prediction of postnatal short-term outcomes in cases of isolated left-sided congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of fetal isolated left-sided CDH managed at our institution between April 2008 and July 2016. We divided the patients into two groups based on LTR immediately before birth, using a cut-off value of 0.08. We compared the proportions of subjects within the two groups who survived until discharge using Fisher's exact test. Further, using Spearman's rank correlation, we assessed whether LTR was correlated with length of stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, and supplemental oxygen. Twenty-nine subjects were included (five with LTR < 0.08, and 24 with LTR ≥ 0.08). The proportion of subjects surviving until discharge was 40% (2/5) for patients with LTR < 0.08, as compared with 96% (23/24) for those with LTR ≥ 0.08. LTR measured immediately before birth was negatively correlated with the postnatal length of stay (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, rs = -0.486), and the duration of supplemental oxygen (rs = -0.537). Further, the duration of mechanical ventilation was longer in patients with a lower LTR value. LTR immediately before birth is useful for the prediction of postnatal short-term outcomes in fetuses with isolated left-sided CDH. In particular, patients with prenatal LTR value less than 0.08 are at increased risk of postnatal death. © 2017 Japanese Teratology Society.

  3. WALS Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magnus, J.R.; Wang, W.; Zhang, Xinyu

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty

  4. Anchorage Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — An anchorage area is a place where boats and ships can safely drop anchor. These areas are created in navigable waterways when ships and vessels require them for...

  5. Effect of loading history on cyclic stress-strain response

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunz, Ludvík; Lukáš, Petr; Weiss, B.; Melisova, D.

    2001-01-01

    Roč. 314, 1/2 (2001), s. 1-6 ISSN 0921-5093. [TMS Annual Meeting. Nashville, 12.03.2000-16.03.2000] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IBS2041001 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z2041904 Keywords : cyclic plasticity * loading history * mean stress Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.978, year: 2001

  6. Nonlinear Stress-Strain Behavior of Plasma Sprayed Ceramic Coatings

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Nohava, Jiří; Kroupa, František

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 3 (2005), s. 251-262 ISSN 0001-7043 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK1010104 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20430508 Keywords : plasma spraying * ceramic coatings * Young’s modulus * nonlinear behavior * microcracks Subject RIV: JH - Ceramics, Fire-Resistant Materials and Glass

  7. Elevated temperature stress strain behavior of beryllium powder product

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abeln, S.P.; Field, R.; Mataya, M.C.

    1995-01-01

    Several grades of beryllium powder product were tested under isothermal conditions in compression over a temperature range of room temperature to 1000 C and a strain rate range from 0.001 s -1 to 1 s -1 . Samples were compressed to a total strain of 1 (64% reduction in height). It is shown that all the grades are strain rate sensitive and that strain rate sensitivity increases with temperature. Yield points were exhibited by some grades up to a temperature of 500 C, and appeared to be primarily dependent on prior thermal history which determined the availability of mobile dislocations. Serrated flow in the form of stress drops was seen in all the materials tested and was most pronounced at 500 C. The appearance and magnitude of the stress drops were dependent on accumulated strain, strain rate, sample orientation, and composition. The flow stress and shape of the flow curves differed significantly from grade to grade due to variations in alloy content, the size and distribution of BeO particles, aging precipitates, and grain size. The ductile-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) was determined for each grade of material and shown to be dependent on composition and thermal treatment. Structure/property relationships are discussed using processing history, microscopy (light and transmission), and property data

  8. Stress, strain, ignorance and reinventing the wheel: Understanding ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... nor should across the board comparisons between central venous pressure measurements and other markers of intravascular volume be attempted. Dynamic testing of the system stiffness (elastance) of the container is an effective but still indirect manner to gauge the particular intracavity volume. Keywords: asthma; child ...

  9. Theory and Practice of Shear/Stress Strain Gage Hygrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shams, Qamar A.; Fenner, Ralph L.

    2006-01-01

    Mechanical hygrometry has progressed during the last several decades from crude hygroscopes to state-of-the art strain-gage sensors. The strain-gage devices vary from different metallic beams to strain-gage sensors using cellulose crystallite elements, held in full shear restraint. This old technique is still in use but several companies are now actively pursuing development of MEMS miniaturized humidity sensors. These new sensors use polyimide thin film for water vapor adsorption and desorption. This paper will provide overview about modern humidity sensors.

  10. Probabilistic predictive modelling of carbon nanocomposites for medical implants design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Matthew; Chui, Chee-Kong

    2015-04-01

    Modelling of the mechanical properties of carbon nanocomposites based on input variables like percentage weight of Carbon Nanotubes (CNT) inclusions is important for the design of medical implants and other structural scaffolds. Current constitutive models for the mechanical properties of nanocomposites may not predict well due to differences in conditions, fabrication techniques and inconsistencies in reagents properties used across industries and laboratories. Furthermore, the mechanical properties of the designed products are not deterministic, but exist as a probabilistic range. A predictive model based on a modified probabilistic surface response algorithm is proposed in this paper to address this issue. Tensile testing of three groups of different CNT weight fractions of carbon nanocomposite samples displays scattered stress-strain curves, with the instantaneous stresses assumed to vary according to a normal distribution at a specific strain. From the probabilistic density function of the experimental data, a two factors Central Composite Design (CCD) experimental matrix based on strain and CNT weight fraction input with their corresponding stress distribution was established. Monte Carlo simulation was carried out on this design matrix to generate a predictive probabilistic polynomial equation. The equation and method was subsequently validated with more tensile experiments and Finite Element (FE) studies. The method was subsequently demonstrated in the design of an artificial tracheal implant. Our algorithm provides an effective way to accurately model the mechanical properties in implants of various compositions based on experimental data of samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Assessing the Transferability of Statistical Predictive Models for Leaf Area Index Between Two Airborne Discrete Return LiDAR Sensor Designs Within Multiple Intensely Managed Loblolly Pine Forest Locations in the South-Eastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumnall, Matthew; Peduzzi, Alicia; Fox, Thomas R.; Wynne, Randolph H.; Thomas, Valerie A.; Cook, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    Leaf area is an important forest structural variable which serves as the primary means of mass and energy exchange within vegetated ecosystems. The objective of the current study was to determine if leaf area index (LAI) could be estimated accurately and consistently in five intensively managed pine plantation forests using two multiple-return airborne LiDAR datasets. Field measurements of LAI were made using the LiCOR LAI2000 and LAI2200 instruments within 116 plots were established of varying size and within a variety of stand conditions (i.e. stand age, nutrient regime and stem density) in North Carolina and Virginia in 2008 and 2013. A number of common LiDAR return height and intensity distribution metrics were calculated (e.g. average return height), in addition to ten indices, with two additional variants, utilized in the surrounding literature which have been used to estimate LAI and fractional cover, were calculated from return heights and intensity, for each plot extent. Each of the indices was assessed for correlation with each other, and was used as independent variables in linear regression analysis with field LAI as the dependent variable. All LiDAR derived metrics were also entered into a forward stepwise linear regression. The results from each of the indices varied from an R2 of 0.33 (S.E. 0.87) to 0.89 (S.E. 0.36). Those indices calculated using ratios of all returns produced the strongest correlations, such as the Above and Below Ratio Index (ABRI) and Laser Penetration Index 1 (LPI1). The regression model produced from a combination of three metrics did not improve correlations greatly (R2 0.90; S.E. 0.35). The results indicate that LAI can be predicted over a range of intensively managed pine plantation forest environments accurately when using different LiDAR sensor designs. Those indices which incorporated counts of specific return numbers (e.g. first returns) or return intensity correlated poorly with field measurements. There were

  12. On the ability of some cyclic plasticity models to predict the evolution of stored energy in a type 304L stainless steel submitted to high cycle fatigue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vincent, L.

    2008-01-01

    Fatigue analyses of materials are generally based on a so-called stabilized cycle, on which plastic strain amplitude, plastic energy, maximum shear stress and so on are determined. The part of plastic energy which is dissipated in heat cannot be used to accumulate damage and it should be worthwhile extracting only the part of plastic energy which is stored in material microstructure in order to build a consistent damage model. In this paper, some cyclic plasticity models including a polycrystalline model are reformulated in the thermodynamic framework in order to test their capacity to predict both the stress-strain behaviour and the partition of plastic energy for a high cycle fatigue test on a type 304L stainless steel. For an equivalent description of stress-strain loops, the number of kinematic hardening variables chosen in a model may qualitatively alter the prediction of plastic energy partition due to the modification of the isotropic hardening variable. Measurements of the specimen temperature increase due to plastic dissipation is therefore proposed as a convenient complementary experimental data to identify the constitutive equation of the isotropic hardening variable of a cyclic plasticity model. (author)

  13. Prediction of fatigue life under service loading using the relative method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buch, A.

    1982-01-01

    Fatigue life estimates obtained with the local strain approach (LSA) and with the conventional nominal stress approach (NSA) were compared with experimental results obtained on notched AlCuMg2 aircraft material specimens with flight simulation random tensile loading. The effect of change of the reference stress, of the loading program and of some changes in the loading frequency distribution, on the ratio Nsub(exp)/Nsub(pred) was investigated. A material strain-life curve, a cyclic stress-strain curve. The Neuber-Topper rule Ksub(sigma) x Ksub(epsilon) = K 2 = const. and a K value estimated with an exact two-parameter notch factor formula for the case R = 0, N = 10 7 were used for life predictions. (orig./RW) [de

  14. Models for prediction of soil precompression stress from readily available soil properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjønning, Per; Lamandé, Mathieu

    2018-01-01

    matric potentials. σpc was estimated from the original stress-strain curves by a novel, numerical method for estimating the stress at maximum curvatu