Sample records for streaming traffic model

  1. Modeling Inclement Weather Impacts on Traffic Stream Behavior

    Hesham Rakha, PhD., P.Eng.


    Full Text Available The research identifies the steady-state car-following model parameters within state-of-the-practice traffic simulation software that require calibration to reflect inclement weather and roadway conditions. The research then develops procedures for calibrating non-steady state car-following models to capture inclement weather impacts and applies the procedures to the INTEGRATION software on a sample network. The results demonstrate that the introduction of rain precipitation results in a 5% reduction in light-duty vehicle speeds and a 3% reduction in heavy-duty vehicle speeds. An increase in the rain intensity further reduces light-duty vehicle and heavy-duty truck speeds resulting in a maximum reduction of 9.5% and 5.5% at the maximum rain intensity of 1.5 cm/h, respectively. The results also demonstrate that the impact of rain on traffic stream speed increases with the level of congestion and is more significant than speed differences attributed to various traffic operational improvements and thus should be accounted for in the analysis of alternatives. In the case of snow precipitation, the speed reductions are much more significant (in the range of 55%. Furthermore, the speed reductions are minimally impacted by the snow precipitation intensity. The study further demonstrates that precipitation intensity has no impact on the relative merit of various scenarios (i.e. the ranking of the scenario results are consistent across the various rain intensity levels. This finding is important given that it demonstrates that a recommendation on the optimal scenario is not impacted by the weather conditions that are considered in the analysis.

  2. Network Characteristics of Video Streaming Traffic

    Rao, Ashwin; Barakat, Chadi; Legout, Arnaud; Towsley, Don; Dabbous, Walid


    Video streaming represents a large fraction of Internet traffic. Surprisingly, little is known about the network characteristics of this traffic. In this paper, we study the network characteristics of the two most popular video streaming services, Netflix and YouTube. We show that the streaming strategies vary with the type of the application (Web browser or native mobile application), and the type of container (Silverlight, Flash, or HTML5) used for video streaming. In particular, we identify three different streaming strategies that produce traffic patterns from non-ack clocked ON-OFF cycles to bulk TCP transfer. We then present an analytical model to study the potential impact of these streaming strategies on the aggregate traffic and make recommendations accordingly.

  3. Basic study on a simulation model for the traffic stream on urban expressway merging area

    Makigami, Y. [Ritsumeikan Univ., Kyoto (Japan). Faculty of Science and Engineering; Sakai, T. [Ritsumeikan Univ., Kusatsu, Shiga (Japan). Civil and Environmental SystemsJP; Ishizuka, T.


    In this study a merging traffic simulation model was developed on the results of a traffic survey covering a merging section which is located on the Central Loop of the Hanshin Expressway and often causes congestion during heavy traffic period. The merging traffic simulation model is a kind of microscopic model treating the merging model flow as compressible fluid. The merging simulation model gives very appropriate and reliable results indicating the effect of improvement plan for reducing traffic congestion. (orig.)

  4. Traffic forecaster for MPLS multimedia data streams

    Ambrose, Barry; Lin, Freddie


    Contemporary high performance data networks carry a wide range of multimedia services (voice, video, audio, text, sensor data, etc.) that require an outstanding Quality of Service (QoS) to provide performance guarantees in priority delivery, latency, bandwidth utilization, load balancing, etc. With the advent of recent Multi-Protocol Label Switching (MPLS) network standards, the QoS has made significant progress in performance to provide these performance guarantees. Right now, attention has turned to the task of managing these QoS networks more efficiently through the handling of network traffic. We have investigated a novel Network Traffic Forecasting Assisted QoS Planner technology that will provide constantly updated forecasts of data traffic and server loads to any application that needs this information. Using source models of voice, video and data traffic based on empirical studies of TCP/IP data traffic carried out by Paxson and Floyd in the 1990's, our studies have shown that the system may provide up to 43% bandwidth savings for MPLS data streams, by predicting future traffic flows and reserving network resources to accommodate the predicted traffic. The system additionally provides a means to submit bandwidth reservation requests for those applications that need assured service guarantees for data delivery. The technology essentially increases the efficiency and effectiveness of multimedia information and communication network infrastructure that supports multiple or adaptive QoS levels for multimedia data networking and information system applications.

  5. A Marine Traffic Flow Model

    Tsz Leung Yip


    Full Text Available A model is developed for studying marine traffic flow through classical traffic flow theories, which can provide us with a better understanding of the phenomenon of traffic flow of ships. On one hand, marine traffic has its special features and is fundamentally different from highway, air and pedestrian traffic. The existing traffic models cannot be simply extended to marine traffic without addressing marine traffic features. On the other hand, existing literature on marine traffic focuses on one ship or two ships but does not address the issues in marine traffic flow.

  6. VBR video traffic models

    Tanwir, Savera


    There has been a phenomenal growth in video applications over the past few years. An accurate traffic model of Variable Bit Rate (VBR) video is necessary for performance evaluation of a network design and for generating synthetic traffic that can be used for benchmarking a network. A large number of models for VBR video traffic have been proposed in the literature for different types of video in the past 20 years. Here, the authors have classified and surveyed these models and have also evaluated the models for H.264 AVC and MVC encoded video and discussed their findings.

  7. An Adaptive Fuzzy-Logic Traffic Control System in Conditions of Saturated Transport Stream

    Marakhimov, A. R.; Igamberdiev, H. Z.; Umarov, Sh. X.


    This paper considers the problem of building adaptive fuzzy-logic traffic control systems (AFLTCS) to deal with information fuzziness and uncertainty in case of heavy traffic streams. Methods of formal description of traffic control on the crossroads based on fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic are proposed. This paper also provides efficient algorithms for implementing AFLTCS and develops the appropriate simulation models to test the efficiency of suggested approach. PMID:27517081

  8. Car Delay Model near Bus Stops with Mixed Traffic Flow

    Yang Xiaobao; Huan Mei; Gao Ziyou


    This paper proposes a model for estimating car delays at bus stops under mixed traffic using probability theory and queuing theory. The roadway is divided to serve motorized and nonmotorized traffic streams. Bus stops are located on the nonmotorized lanes. When buses dwell at the stop, they block the bicycles. Thus, two conflict points between car stream and other traffic stream are identified. The first conflict point occurs as bicycles merge to the motorized lane to avoid waiting behind the...


    Ben-Edigbe Johnnie


    Full Text Available The study is aimed at estimating road lighting impact on traffic stream characteristics; flow, speed, density and headway for an uninterrupted traffic flow. Volume, speed and headway data were collected during daylight, road lighting and dry weather conditions. Flowrate, speed, density and headways were estimated for daylight and road lighting periods; then compared. Since flowrate, free-flow speed, optimum speed critical density and headways during daylight and road lighting periods did not differ significantly: the study concluded that road lighting does not affect traffic stream characteristics significantly.

  10. Stream Modelling

    Vestergaard, Kristian

    the engineers, but as the scale and the complexity of the hydraulic works increased, the mathematical models became so complex that a mathematical solution could not be obtained. This created a demand for new methods and again the experimental investigation became popular, but this time as measurements on small......-scale models. But still the scale and complexity of hydraulic works were increasing, and soon even small-scale models reached a natural limit for some applications. In the mean time the modern computer was developed, and it became possible to solve complex mathematical models by use of computer-based numerical...

  11. Modeling traffic on crossroads

    Wastavino, L. A.; Toledo, B. A.; Rogan, J.; Zarama, R.; Muñoz, V.; Valdivia, J. A.


    A simplified traffic model is studied, consisting of two vehicles traveling through a sequence of crossroads regulated by yield signs. A car approaching a yield sign stops if, in the other street, there is a car closer than a certain distance xtol from the intersection. It is shown that the function which maps the state of the vehicles displays a period doubling transition to chaos. An interesting feature of the dynamics is that for extremely cautious drivers ( xtol too large), the map turns chaotic, thus becoming a potential source of emergent jams. Complex behavior such as the one observed in this simple system seems to be an essential ingredient in traffic patterns, and could be of relevance in studying actual crossroads situations.

  12. Traffic flow modeling: a Genealogy

    Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Vuik, C.; Van Lint, J.W.C.


    80 years ago, Bruce Greenshields presented the first traffic flow model at the Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board. Since then, many models and simulation tools have been developed. We show a model tree with four families of traffic flow models, all descending from Greenshields' model. The

  13. P2P Streaming Traffic Classification in High-Speed Networks

    Chen Luying; Cong Rong; Yang Jie; Yu Hua


    The growing P2P streaming traffic brings a variety of problems and challenges to ISP networks and service providers.A P2P streaming traffic classification method based on sampling technology is presented in this paper.By analyzing traffic statistical features and network behavior of P2P streaming,a group of flow characteristics were found,which can make P2P streaming more recognizable among other applications.Attributes from Netflow and those proposed by us are compared in terms of classification accuracy,and so are the results of different sampling rates.It is proved that the unified classification model with the proposed attributes can identify P2P streaming quickly and efficiently in the online system.Even with 1∶50 sampling rate,the recognition accuracy can be higher than 94%.Moreover,we have evaluated the CPU resources,storage capacity and time consumption before and after the sampling,it is shown that the classification model after the sampling can significantly reduce the resource requirements with the same recognition accuracy.

  14. A new modelling approach for road traffic emissions: VERSIT+

    Smit, R.; Smokers, R.T.M.; Rabé, E.L.M.


    The objective of VERSIT+ LD is to predict traffic stream emissions for light-duty vehicles in any particular traffic situation. With respect to hot running emissions, VERSIT+ LD consists of a set of statistical models for detailed vehicle categories that have been constructed using multiple linear r

  15. A new modelling approach for road traffic emissions: VERSIT+

    Smit, R.; Smokers, R.T.M.; Rabé, E.L.M.


    The objective of VERSIT+ LD is to predict traffic stream emissions for light-duty vehicles in any particular traffic situation. With respect to hot running emissions, VERSIT+ LD consists of a set of statistical models for detailed vehicle categories that have been constructed using multiple linear

  16. Exactly solvable cellular automaton traffic jam model.

    Kearney, Michael J


    A detailed study is undertaken of the v{max}=1 limit of the cellular automaton traffic model proposed by Nagel and Paczuski [Phys. Rev. E 51, 2909 (1995)]. The model allows one to analyze the behavior of a traffic jam initiated in an otherwise freely flowing stream of traffic. By mapping onto a discrete-time queueing system, itself related to various problems encountered in lattice combinatorics, exact results are presented in relation to the jam lifetime, the maximum jam length, and the jam mass (the space-time cluster size or integrated vehicle waiting time), both in terms of the critical and the off-critical behavior. This sets existing scaling results in their natural context and also provides several other interesting results in addition.

  17. Segment-based traffic smoothing algorithm for VBR video stream


    Transmission of variable bit rate (VBR) video, because of the burstiness of VBR video traffic, has high fluctuation in bandwidth requirement. Traffic smoothing algorithm is very efficient in reducing burstiness of the VBR video stream by transmitting data in a series of fixed rates. We propose in this paper a novel segment-based bandwidth allocation algorithm which dynamically adjusts the segmentation boundary and changes the transmission rate at the latest possible point so that the video segment will be extended as long as possible and the number of rate changes can be as small as possible while keeping the peak rate low. Simulation results showed that our approach has small bandwidth requirement, high bandwidth utilization and low computation cost.

  18. Effects of Traffic Lights on CA Traffic Model

    SuweiFENG; GuoqingGU


    Cellular automaton traffic models can include various factors in traffic system with simple regulations and the corresponding computations and simulations are rather convenient and effective.In this paper,the Biham-Middleton-Levine model(briefly saying the BML model)is improved by removing its limitation of synchronized change of traffic lights.In new model,the traffic light at each crossing could arbitrarily change its starting time and tempo of variation and hence the model could more realistically describe the influence of traffic lights on the performance of traffic systems.The cases of traffic light with unsynchronized starting time and different tempo of variation are simulated in this paper.

  19. Optimal Traffic Allocation for Multi-Stream Aggregation in Heterogeneous Networks

    Popovska Avramova, Andrijana; Iversen, Villy Bæk


    This paper investigates an optimal traffic rate allocation method for multi-stream aggregation over heterogeneous networks that deals with effective integration of two or more heterogeneous links for improved data throughput and enhanced quality of experience. The heterogeneity and the dynamic...... nature of radio access networks are considered as important factors for performance improvement by multi-stream aggregation. Therefore, in our model, the networks are represented by different queueing systems in order to indicate networks with opposite quality of service provisioning, capacity and delay...

  20. Traffic Games: Modeling Freeway Traffic with Game Theory

    Cortés-Berrueco, Luis E.; Gershenson, Carlos; Stephens, Christopher R.


    We apply game theory to a vehicular traffic model to study the effect of driver strategies on traffic flow. The resulting model inherits the realistic dynamics achieved by a two-lane traffic model and aims to incorporate phenomena caused by driver-driver interactions. To achieve this goal, a game-theoretic description of driver interaction was developed. This game-theoretic formalization allows one to model different lane-changing behaviors and to keep track of mobility performance. We simulate the evolution of cooperation, traffic flow, and mobility performance for different modeled behaviors. The analysis of these results indicates a mobility optimization process achieved by drivers’ interactions. PMID:27855176

  1. Traffic Games: Modeling Freeway Traffic with Game Theory.

    Cortés-Berrueco, Luis E; Gershenson, Carlos; Stephens, Christopher R


    We apply game theory to a vehicular traffic model to study the effect of driver strategies on traffic flow. The resulting model inherits the realistic dynamics achieved by a two-lane traffic model and aims to incorporate phenomena caused by driver-driver interactions. To achieve this goal, a game-theoretic description of driver interaction was developed. This game-theoretic formalization allows one to model different lane-changing behaviors and to keep track of mobility performance. We simulate the evolution of cooperation, traffic flow, and mobility performance for different modeled behaviors. The analysis of these results indicates a mobility optimization process achieved by drivers' interactions.

  2. Study on Macro-traffic Model

    FangGe; GuowuZhang; BaojunYuan; KepingLi


    Macro-traffic model is an effective tool for supporting traffic programmer to This article is based on the software products VISEM (demand model) and VISUM (supply model) from PTV Company of Germany, and studies macro-traffic model on the basis of considering that traffic system is an interactive system of between a supply system and a demand system.

  3. Numerical Modelling of Streams

    Vestergaard, Kristian

    In recent years there has been a sharp increase in the use of numerical water quality models. Numeric water quality modeling can be divided into three steps: Hydrodynamic modeling for the determination of stream flow and water levels. Modelling of transport and dispersion of a conservative...

  4. Stream Water Quality Model

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — QUAL2K (or Q2K) is a river and stream water quality model that is intended to represent a modernized version of the QUAL2E (or Q2E) model (Brown and Barnwell 1987).

  5. Some random models in traffic science

    Hjorth, U.


    We give an overview of stochastic models for the following traffic phenomena. Models for traffic flow including gaps and capacities for lanes, crossings and roundabouts. Models for wanted and achieved speed distributions. Mode selection models including dispersed equilibrium models and traffic accident models. Also some statistical questions are discussed. 60 refs, 1 tab

  6. Traffic Modeling in WCDMA System Level Simulations


    Traffic modeling is a crucial element in WCDMA system level simulations. A clear understanding of the nature of traffic in the WCDMA system and subsequent selection of an appropriate random traffic model are critical to the success of the modeling enterprise. The resultant performances will evidently be of a function that our design has been well adapted to the traffic, channel and user mobility models, and these models are also accurate. In this article, our attention will be focused on modeling voice and WWW data traffic with the SBBP model and Victor model respectively.

  7. Percolation properties in a traffic model

    Wang, Feilong; Xu, Xiaoyun; Wu, Ruoqian; Havlin, Shlomo


    As a dynamical complex system, traffic is characterized by a transition from free flow to congestions, which is mostly studied in highways. However, despite its importance in developing congestion mitigation strategies, the understanding of this common traffic phenomenon in a city-scale is still missing. An open question is how the traffic in the network collapses from a global efficient traffic to isolated local flows in small clusters, i.e. the question of traffic percolation. Here we study the traffic percolation properties on a lattice by simulation of an agent-based model for traffic. A critical traffic volume in this model distinguishes the free-state from congested state of traffic. Our results show that the threshold of traffic percolation decreases with increasing traffic volume and reaches a minimum value at the critical traffic volume. We show that this minimal threshold is the result of longest spatial correlation between traffic flows at the critical traffic volume. These findings may help to dev...

  8. Structure Model of Urban Traffic System Evolution

    JIANG Ke-jin; ZHANG Dian-ye


    A structure model of urban traffic system evolution is built based on the analysis of the factors influencing the system evolution and the hierarchy between the factors. Then the influencing degrees of the factors are quantificationally analyzed by DEMATE (decision making trial and evaluation laboratory). The analysis results indicate that the traffic mode structure which achieves the highest central degree is the dominant influencing factor of the urban traffic system evolution, and that economy development and the traffic poficy axe the second important factors that also affect the traffic mode structures. Furthermore, physical geography is a basic restriction to the urban traffic system evolution.

  9. Characterization and Modeling of Network Traffic

    Shawky, Ahmed; Bergheim, Hans; Ragnarsson, Olafur


    This paper attempts to characterize and model backbone network traffic, using a small number of statistics. In order to reduce cost and processing power associated with traffic analysis. The parameters affecting the behaviour of network traffic are investigated and the choice is that inter...

  10. Car-following models of vehicular traffic

    翁彦琳; 吴铁军


    The Car-following model is a kind of microscopic simulation model for vehicular traffic, which describe the one-by-one following behaviors of vehides in the same traffic lane. As a common traffic phenomenon, following behavior is of great importance in the micro-study of intelligent traffic control.Compared with other traffic-flow models, car-following model embodies the human factors and feflects the real traffic sit-uation in a better way. This paper gives a systematic review of the development and actuality of car-following models by introducing and analyzing in detail the advantages and disavantages of GHR model, OV model,CA model and fuzzy-logic model. In addition, local stability and asymptotic stability of car-following models are discussed in this paper.

  11. Car-following models of vehicular traffic

    翁彦琳; 吴铁军


    The Car-following models is a kind of microscopic simulation model f or vehicular traffic, which describe the one-by-one following behaviors of v ehicles in the same traffic lane. As a common traffic phenomenon, following behavior is of great importance in the micro-study of intelligent traffic control. Compared with other traffic-flow models, car-following model embodies the human factors a nd reflects the real traffic situation in a better way. This paper gives a syste matic review of the development and actuality of car-following models by introd u cing and analyzing in detail the advantages and disadvantages of GHR model, OV m odel, CA model and fuzzy-logic model. In addition, local stability and asymptot ic stability of car-following models are discussed in this paper.

  12. Car Delay Model near Bus Stops with Mixed Traffic Flow

    Yang Xiaobao


    Full Text Available This paper proposes a model for estimating car delays at bus stops under mixed traffic using probability theory and queuing theory. The roadway is divided to serve motorized and nonmotorized traffic streams. Bus stops are located on the nonmotorized lanes. When buses dwell at the stop, they block the bicycles. Thus, two conflict points between car stream and other traffic stream are identified. The first conflict point occurs as bicycles merge to the motorized lane to avoid waiting behind the stopping buses. The second occurs as buses merge back to the motorized lane. The average car delay is estimated as the sum of the average delay at these two conflict points and the delay resulting from following the slower bicycles that merged into the motorized lane. Data are collected to calibrate and validate the developed model from one site in Beijing. The sensitivity of car delay to various operation conditions is examined. The results show that both bus stream and bicycle stream have significant effects on car delay. At bus volumes above 200 vehicles per hour, the curbside stop design is not appropriate because of the long car delays. It can be replaced by the bus bay design.

  13. A Multipath Connection Model for Traffic Matrices

    Mr. M. V. Prabhakaran


    Full Text Available Peer-to-Peer (P2P applications have witnessed an increasing popularity in recent years, which brings new challenges to network management and traffic engineering (TE. As basic input information, P2P traffic matrices are of significant importance for TE. Because of the excessively high cost of direct measurement. In this paper,A multipath connection model for traffic matrices in operational networks. Media files can share the peer to peer, the localization ratio of peer to peer traffic. This evaluates its performance using traffic traces collected from both the real peer to peer video-on-demand and file-sharing applications. The estimation of the general traffic matrices (TM then used for sending the media file without traffic. Share the media file, source to destination traffic is not occur. So it give high performance and short time process.

  14. The Evaluation of Lane-Changing Behavior in Urban Traffic Stream with Fuzzy Clustering Method

    Ali Abdi


    Full Text Available We present a method for The Evaluation of Lane-Changing Behavior in Urban Traffic Stream with Fuzzy Clustering Method. The trends for drivers Lane-Changing with regard to remarkable effects in traffic are regarded as a major variable in traffic engineering. As a result, various algorithms have presented most models of Lane-Changing developed by means of lane information and the manner of vehicle movement mainly obtained from images process not much attention is given to the characteristics of driver. Lane change divided into two parts the first one are compulsory lane including lane change to turn left or turn right. The second type of change is optional and lane change to improve driving condition. A low speed car is a good example, in this study, through focused group discussion method, drivers information can be obtained so that driver’s personality traits are taken into consideration. Then drivers are divided into four groups by means of Algorithm clusters. The four Algorithms suggest that phase typed cluster is a more suitable method for drivers classification based on Lane-Changing. Through notarization of different type of scenarios of lane change in Iran following results released. The percentage of drivers for each group is 17/5, 35, 20 and 27/ %, respectively.

  15. The car following model considering traffic jerk

    Ge, Hong-Xia; Zheng, Peng-jun; Wang, Wei; Cheng, Rong-Jun


    Based on optimal velocity car following model, a new model considering traffic jerk is proposed to describe the jamming transition in traffic flow on a highway. Traffic jerk means the sudden braking and acceleration of vehicles, which has a significant impact on traffic movement. The nature of the model is researched by using linear and nonlinear analysis method. A thermodynamic theory is formulated to describe the phase transition and critical phenomenon in traffic flow. The time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) equation and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation are derived to describe the traffic flow near the critical point and the traffic jam. In addition, the connection between the TDGL and the mKdV equations are also given.

  16. Using Visualization Techniques in Multilayer Traffic Modeling

    Bragg, Arnold

    We describe visualization techniques for multilayer traffic modeling - i.e., traffic models that span several protocol layers, and traffic models of protocols that cross layers. Multilayer traffic modeling is challenging, as one must deal with disparate traffic sources; control loops; the effects of network elements such as IP routers; cross-layer protocols; asymmetries in bandwidth, session lengths, and application behaviors; and an enormous number of complex interactions among the various factors. We illustrate by using visualization techniques to identify relationships, transformations, and scaling; to smooth simulation and measurement data; to examine boundary cases, subtle effects and interactions, and outliers; to fit models; and to compare models with others that have fewer parameters. Our experience suggests that visualization techniques can provide practitioners with extraordinary insight about complex multilayer traffic effects and interactions that are common in emerging next-generation networks.

  17. A Bathtub Model of Traffic Congestion

    Arnott, Richard


    In the standard economic models of traffic congestion, traffic flow does not fall under heavily congested conditions. But this is counter to experience, especially in thedowntown areas of most major cities during rush hour. This paper presents a bathtub model of traffic congestion. The height of water in the bathtub corresponds totraffic density, velocity is negatively related to density, and outflow is the product of density and velocity. Above a critical density, outflow falls as density in...

  18. Fastlane: Traffic flow modeling and multi-class dynamic traffic management

    Schreiter, T.; Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.; Yuan, Y.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    Dynamic Traffic Management (DTM) aims to improve traffic conditions. DTM usually consists of two steps: first the current traffic is estimated, then appropriate control actions are determined based on that estimate. In order to estimate and control the traffic, a suitable traffic flow model that

  19. Fastlane: Traffic flow modeling and multi-class dynamic traffic management

    Schreiter, T.; Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.; Yuan, Y.; Van Lint, J.W.C.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    Dynamic Traffic Management (DTM) aims to improve traffic conditions. DTM usually consists of two steps: first the current traffic is estimated, then appropriate control actions are determined based on that estimate. In order to estimate and control the traffic, a suitable traffic flow model that rep

  20. Scalable Video Streaming Traffic Delivery in IP/UMTS Networking Environments

    Thomas Pliakas


    Full Text Available The paper discusses the end-to-end QoS provisioning for scalable video streaming traffic delivery over heterogeneous IP/UMTS networks. A prototype architecture is proposed, and is further validated, that explores the joint use of packet prioritization and scalable video coding (SVC together with the appropriate mapping of UMTS traffic classes to the DiffServ traffic classes. A complete set of simulation scenarios, involving eight different video sequences and using two different scalable encoders, demonstrates the quality gains of both scalable video coding and prioritized packetization.

  1. Modeling Network Traffic in Wavelet Domain

    Sheng Ma


    Full Text Available This work discovers that although network traffic has the complicated short- and long-range temporal dependence, the corresponding wavelet coefficients are no longer long-range dependent. Therefore, a "short-range" dependent process can be used to model network traffic in the wavelet domain. Both independent and Markov models are investigated. Theoretical analysis shows that the independent wavelet model is sufficiently accurate in terms of the buffer overflow probability for Fractional Gaussian Noise traffic. Any model, which captures additional correlations in the wavelet domain, only improves the performance marginally. The independent wavelet model is then used as a unified approach to model network traffic including VBR MPEG video and Ethernet data. The computational complexity is O(N for developing such wavelet models and generating synthesized traffic of length N, which is among the lowest attained.

  2. Analysis and Modeling of Traffic in Modern Data Communication Networks

    Babic, G.; Vandalore, B.; Jain, R.


    In performance analysis and design of communication netword modeling data traffic is important. With introduction of new applications, the characteristics of the data traffic changes. We present a brief review the different models of data traffic and how they have evolved. We present results of data traffic analysis and simulated traffic, which demonstrates that the packet train model fits the traffic at source destination level and long-memory (self-similar) model fits the traffic at the agg...


    Yan Guangwu; Hu Shouxin


    A lattice Boltzmann model with 5-bit lattice for traffic flows is proposed.Using the Chapman-Enskog expansion and multi-scale technique,we obtain the higher-order moments of equilibrium distribution function.A simple traffic light problem is simulated by using the present lattice Boltzmann model,and the result agrees well with analytical solution.

  4. Stochastic Modeling of Traffic Air Pollution

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle


    In this paper, modeling of traffic air pollution is discussed with special reference to infrastructures. A number of subjects related to health effects of air pollution and the different types of pollutants are briefly presented. A simple model for estimating the social cost of traffic related air...... and using simple Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a stochastic estimate of the costs of traffic air pollution for infrastructures....... pollution is derived. Several authors have published papers on this very complicated subject, but no stochastic modelling procedure have obtained general acceptance. The subject is discussed basis of a deterministic model. However, it is straightforward to modify this model to include uncertain parameters...

  5. Stochastic Modeling of Traffic Air Pollution

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle


    In this paper, modeling of traffic air pollution is discussed with special reference to infrastructures. A number of subjects related to health effects of air pollution and the different types of pollutants are briefly presented. A simple model for estimating the social cost of traffic related air...... and using simple Monte Carlo techniques to obtain a stochastic estimate of the costs of traffic air pollution for infrastructures....... pollution is derived. Several authors have published papers on this very complicated subject, but no stochastic modelling procedure have obtained general acceptance. The subject is discussed basis of a deterministic model. However, it is straightforward to modify this model to include uncertain parameters...

  6. On traffic modelling in GPRS networks

    Madsen, Tatiana Kozlova; Schwefel, Hans-Peter; Prasad, Ramjee


    here are done at the Gi interface. The aim of this paper is to reveal some key statistics of GPRS data applications and to validate if the existing traffic models can adequately describe traffic volume and inter-arrival time distribution for different services. Additionally, we present a method of user...

  7. Traffic flow dynamics data, models and simulation

    Treiber, Martin


    This textbook provides a comprehensive and instructive coverage of vehicular traffic flow dynamics and modeling. It makes this fascinating interdisciplinary topic, which to date was only documented in parts by specialized monographs, accessible to a broad readership. Numerous figures and problems with solutions help the reader to quickly understand and practice the presented concepts. This book is targeted at students of physics and traffic engineering and, more generally, also at students and professionals in computer science, mathematics, and interdisciplinary topics. It also offers material for project work in programming and simulation at college and university level. The main part, after presenting different categories of traffic data, is devoted to a mathematical description of the dynamics of traffic flow, covering macroscopic models which describe traffic in terms of density, as well as microscopic many-particle models in which each particle corresponds to a vehicle and its driver. Focus chapters on ...

  8. Intelligent Model for Traffic Safety Applications

    C. Chellappan


    Full Text Available Problem statement: This study presents an analysis on road traffic system focused on the use of communications to detect dangerous vehicles on roads and highways and how it could be used to enhance driver safety. Approach: The intelligent traffic safety application model is based on all traffic flow theories developed in the last years, leading to reliable representations of road traffic, which is of major importance in achieving the attenuation of traffic problems. The model also includes the decision making process from the driver in accelerating, decelerating and changing lanes. Results: The individuality of each of these processes appears from the model parameters that are randomly generated from statistical distributions introduced as input parameters. Conclusion: This allows the integration of the individuality factor of the population elements yielding knowledge on various driving modes at wide variety of situations.

  9. Modelling of urban traffic networkof signalized intersections


    This report presents how traffic network of signalized intersection in a chosen urban area called Tema is synchronized. Using a modular approach, two different types of traffic intersection commonly found in an urban area were modelled i.e. a simple intersection and a complex intersection. A direct road, even though not an intersection, was also included in the modelling because it’s commonly found in an urban area plus it connects any two intersections. Each of these scenarios was modelled u...

  10. Background Traffic-Based Retransmission Algorithm for Multimedia Streaming Transfer over Concurrent Multipaths

    Yuanlong Cao


    Full Text Available The content-rich multimedia streaming will be the most attractive services in the next-generation networks. With function of distribute data across multipath end-to-end paths based on SCTP's multihoming feature, concurrent multipath transfer SCTP (CMT-SCTP has been regarded as the most promising technology for the efficient multimedia streaming transmission. However, the current researches on CMT-SCTP mainly focus on the algorithms related to the data delivery performance while they seldom consider the background traffic factors. Actually, background traffic of realistic network environments has an important impact on the performance of CMT-SCTP. In this paper, we firstly investigate the effect of background traffic on the performance of CMT-SCTP based on a close realistic simulation topology with reasonable background traffic in NS2, and then based on the localness nature of background flow, a further improved retransmission algorithm, named RTX_CSI, is proposed to reach more benefits in terms of average throughput and achieve high users' experience of quality for multimedia streaming services.

  11. A traffic model of optical networks based on time-space complexity and traffic grooming

    Zhao Yongli; Zhang Jie; Han Dahai; Wang Lei; Chen Xiuzhong; Gu Wanyi


    This paper researched the traffic of optical networks in time-space complexity, proposed a novel traffic model for complex optical networks based on traffic grooming, designed a traffic generator GTS (generator based on time and space) with "centralized + distributed" idea, and then made a simulation in C language. Experiments results show that GTS can produce the virtual network topology which can change dynamically with the characteristic of scaling-free network. GTS can also groom the different traffic and trigger them under real-time or scheduling mechanisms, generating different optical connections. This traffic model is convenient for the simulation of optical networks considering the traffic complexity.

  12. Effect of Rainfall on Traffic Stream Characteristics during Peak and Non-Peak Periods

    Hashim Mohammed Alhassan


    Full Text Available This paper examined the effect of rainfall on traffic stream behaviour during  peak and non-peak periods on a basic highway section. Data on this section which is located on the J5 was collected for four months during which 99 rainfall events occurred. The traffic consisted of 75.80% cars, 10.23% motorcycles, 3.51% trucks and 10.46%  of other vehicles. Traffic was observed for both rain and no-rain conditions and the data was analysed to see the effect of the rain. The results showed decreases in the speed as the rain intensity increased. Similarly, the traffic flow rates decreased as the rain intensity increased. This trend was observed for both peak and non-peak periods and for both directions. It is concluded that the effect of rain during peak period could have more serious consequences on the traffic flow than during non-peak periods because of the higher flow rates and the constrained nature of the flow. Consequently, capacity degradations up to 30% during peak periods would require resources to be employed to manage the traffic.

  13. How many probe vehicles are enough for identifying traffic congestion?—a study from a streaming data perspective

    Wang, Handong; Yue, Yang; Li, Qingquan


    Many studies have been carried out using vehicle trajectory to analyze traffic conditions, for instance, identifying traffic congestion. However, there is a lack of a systematic study on the appropriate number of probe vehicles and their sampling interval in order to identify traffic congestion accurately. Moreover, most of related studies ignore the streaming feature of trajectory data. This paper first represents a novel method of identifying traffic congestion considering the stream feature of vehicle trajectories. Instead of processing the whole data stream, a series of snapshots are extracted. Congested road segments can be identified by analyzing the clusters' evolution among a series of adjacent snapshots. We then calculated a series of parameters and their corresponding congestion identification accuracy. The results have implications for related probe vehicle deployment and traffic analysis; for example, when 5% of probe vehicles are available, 85% identification accuracy can be reached if the sampling time interval is 10 s.

  14. Dynamical Modelling of Meteoroid Streams

    Clark, David; Wiegert, P. A.


    Accurate simulations of meteoroid streams permit the prediction of stream interaction with Earth, and provide a measure of risk to Earth satellites and interplanetary spacecraft. Current cometary ejecta and meteoroid stream models have been somewhat successful in predicting some stream observations, but have required questionable assumptions and significant simplifications. Extending on the approach of Vaubaillon et al. (2005)1, we model dust ejection from the cometary nucleus, and generate sample particles representing bins of distinct dynamical evolution-regulating characteristics (size, density, direction, albedo). Ephemerides of the sample particles are integrated and recorded for later assignment of frequency based on model parameter changes. To assist in model analysis we are developing interactive software to permit the “turning of knobs” of model parameters, allowing for near-real-time 3D visualization of resulting stream structure. With this tool, we will revisit prior assumptions made, and will observe the impact of introducing non-uniform cometary surface attributes and temporal activity. The software uses a single model definition and implementation throughout model verification, sample particle bin generation and integration, and analysis. It supports the adjustment with feedback of both independent and independent model values, with the intent of providing an interface supporting multivariate analysis. Propagations of measurement uncertainties and model parameter precisions are tracked rigorously throughout. We maintain a separation of the model itself from the abstract concepts of model definition, parameter manipulation, and real-time analysis and visualization. Therefore we are able to quickly adapt to fundamental model changes. It is hoped the tool will also be of use in other solar system dynamics problems. 1 Vaubaillon, J.; Colas, F.; Jorda, L. (2005) A new method to predict meteor showers. I. Description of the model. Astronomy and

  15. A new dynamics model for traffic flow


    As a study method of traffic flow, dynamics models were developedand applied in the last few decades. However, there exist some flaws in most existing models. In this note, a new dynamics model is proposed by using car-following theory and the usual connection method of micro-macro variables, which can overcome some ubiquitous problems in the existing models. Numerical results show that the new model can very well simulate traffic flow conditions, such as congestion, evacuation of congestion, stop-and-go phenomena and phantom jam.

  16. Traveling waves in an optimal velocity model of freeway traffic

    Berg, Peter; Woods, Andrew


    Car-following models provide both a tool to describe traffic flow and algorithms for autonomous cruise control systems. Recently developed optimal velocity models contain a relaxation term that assigns a desirable speed to each headway and a response time over which drivers adjust to optimal velocity conditions. These models predict traffic breakdown phenomena analogous to real traffic instabilities. In order to deepen our understanding of these models, in this paper, we examine the transition from a linear stable stream of cars of one headway into a linear stable stream of a second headway. Numerical results of the governing equations identify a range of transition phenomena, including monotonic and oscillating travelling waves and a time- dependent dispersive adjustment wave. However, for certain conditions, we find that the adjustment takes the form of a nonlinear traveling wave from the upstream headway to a third, intermediate headway, followed by either another traveling wave or a dispersive wave further downstream matching the downstream headway. This intermediate value of the headway is selected such that the nonlinear traveling wave is the fastest stable traveling wave which is observed to develop in the numerical calculations. The development of these nonlinear waves, connecting linear stable flows of two different headways, is somewhat reminiscent of stop-start waves in congested flow on freeways. The different types of adjustments are classified in a phase diagram depending on the upstream and downstream headway and the response time of the model. The results have profound consequences for autonomous cruise control systems. For an autocade of both identical and different vehicles, the control system itself may trigger formations of nonlinear, steep wave transitions. Further information is available [Y. Sugiyama, Traffic and Granular Flow (World Scientific, Singapore, 1995), p. 137].

  17. Validating the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen

    Overgård, Christian Hansen; VUK, Goran


    The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000 to 2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen...... Metro became operational in autumn 2002. We observed that forecasts from the demand sub-models agree well with the data from the 2000 national travel survey, with the mode choice forecasts in particular being a good match with the observed modal split. The results of the 2000 car assignment model...... matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10% to 50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade...

  18. Real-Time Corrected Traffic Correlation Model for Traffic Flow Forecasting

    Hua-pu Lu


    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the problems of short-term traffic flow forecasting. The main goal is to put forward traffic correlation model and real-time correction algorithm for traffic flow forecasting. Traffic correlation model is established based on the temporal-spatial-historical correlation characteristic of traffic big data. In order to simplify the traffic correlation model, this paper presents correction coefficients optimization algorithm. Considering multistate characteristic of traffic big data, a dynamic part is added to traffic correlation model. Real-time correction algorithm based on Fuzzy Neural Network is presented to overcome the nonlinear mapping problems. A case study based on a real-world road network in Beijing, China, is implemented to test the efficiency and applicability of the proposed modeling methods.

  19. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.


    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various control strategies and enhance the performance of the overall network. By taking proactive action deploying traffic management measures, congestion may be prevented or its effects limited. An approach...

  20. A Behavioural Model of Traffic Congestion: Endogenizing Speed Choice, Traffic Safety and Time Losses

    Verhoef, E.T.; Rouwendal, J.


    Conventional economic models of traffic congestion assume that the relation between traffic flow and speed is a technical one. This paper develops a behavioural model of traffic congestion, in which drivers optimize their speeds by trading off time costs, expected accident costs and fuel costs. Sinc

  1. Forecasting Multivariate Road Traffic Flows Using Bayesian Dynamic Graphical Models, Splines and Other Traffic Variables

    Anacleto, Osvaldo; Queen, Catriona; Albers, Casper J.


    Traffic flow data are routinely collected for many networks worldwide. These invariably large data sets can be used as part of a traffic management system, for which good traffic flow forecasting models are crucial. The linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM) has been shown to be promising for f

  2. On the reproducibility of spatiotemporal traffic dynamics with microscopic traffic models

    Knorr, Florian


    Traffic flow is a very prominent example of a driven non-equilibrium system. A characteristic phenomenon of traffic dynamics is the spontaneous and abrupt drop of the average velocity on a stretch of road leading to congestion. Such a traffic breakdown corresponds to a boundary-induced phase transition from free flow to congested traffic. In this paper, we study the ability of selected microscopic traffic models to reproduce a traffic breakdown, and we investigate its spatiotemporal dynamics. For our analysis, we use empirical traffic data from stationary loop detectors on a German Autobahn showing a spontaneous breakdown. We then present several methods to assess the results and compare the models with each other. In addition, we will also discuss some important modeling aspects and their impact on the resulting spatiotemporal pattern. The investigation of different downstream boundary conditions, for example, shows that the physical origin of the traffic breakdown may be artificially induced by the setup of...

  3. On the reproducibility of spatiotemporal traffic dynamics with microscopic traffic models

    Knorr, Florian; Schreckenberg, Michael


    Traffic flow is a very prominent example of a driven non-equilibrium system. A characteristic phenomenon of traffic dynamics is the spontaneous and abrupt drop of the average velocity on a stretch of road leading to congestion. Such a traffic breakdown corresponds to a boundary-induced phase transition from free flow to congested traffic. In this paper, we study the ability of selected microscopic traffic models to reproduce a traffic breakdown, and we investigate its spatiotemporal dynamics. For our analysis, we use empirical traffic data from stationary loop detectors on a German Autobahn showing a spontaneous breakdown. We then present several methods to assess the results and compare the models with each other. In addition, we will also discuss some important modeling aspects and their impact on the resulting spatiotemporal pattern. The investigation of different downstream boundary conditions, for example, shows that the physical origin of the traffic breakdown may be artificially induced by the setup of the boundaries.

  4. Modeling Road Traffic Using Service Center

    HARAGOS, I.-M.


    Full Text Available Transport systems have an essential role in modern society because they facilitate access to natural resources and they stimulate trade. Current studies aimed at improving transport networks by developing new methods for optimization. Because of the increase in the global number of cars, one of the most common problems facing the transport network is congestion. By creating traffic models and simulate them, we can avoid this problem and find appropriate solutions. In this paper we propose a new method for modeling traffic. This method considers road intersections as being service centers. A service center represents a set consisting of a queue followed by one or multiple servers. This model was used to simulate real situations in an urban traffic area. Based on this simulation, we have successfully determined the optimal functioning and we have computed the performance measures.

  5. Real Time Traffic Models, Decision Support for Traffic Management

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.


    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  6. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; de Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.


    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  7. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    Wismans, L.J.J.; Romph, de E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.


    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various con

  8. Real Time Traffic Models, Decision Support for Traffic Management

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.


    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various con

  9. Modelling of H.264 MPEG2 TS Traffic Source

    Stanislav Klucik


    Full Text Available This paper deals with IPTV traffic source modelling. Traffic sources are used for simulation, emulation and real network testing. This model is made as a derivation of known recorded traffic sources that are analysed and statistically processed. As the results show the proposed model causes in comparison to the known traffic source very similar network traffic parameters when used in a simulated network.

  10. Variable bit rate video traffic modeling by multiplicative multifractal model

    Huang Xiaodong; Zhou Yuanhua; Zhang Rongfu


    Multiplicative multifractal process could well model video traffic. The multiplier distributions in the multiplicative multifractal model for video traffic are investigated and it is found that Gaussian is not suitable for describing the multipliers on the small time scales. A new statistical distribution-symmetric Pareto distribution is introduced. It is applied instead of Gaussian for the multipliers on those scales. Based on that, the algorithm is updated so that symmetric pareto distribution and Gaussian distribution are used to model video traffic but on different time scales. The simulation results demonstrate that the algorithm could model video traffic more accurately.

  11. Online traffic flow model applying dynamic flow-density relation

    Kim, Y


    This dissertation describes a new approach of the online traffic flow modelling based on the hydrodynamic traffic flow model and an online process to adapt the flow-density relation dynamically. The new modelling approach was tested based on the real traffic situations in various homogeneous motorway sections and a motorway section with ramps and gave encouraging simulation results. This work is composed of two parts: first the analysis of traffic flow characteristics and second the development of a new online traffic flow model applying these characteristics. For homogeneous motorway sections traffic flow is classified into six different traffic states with different characteristics. Delimitation criteria were developed to separate these states. The hysteresis phenomena were analysed during the transitions between these traffic states. The traffic states and the transitions are represented on a states diagram with the flow axis and the density axis. For motorway sections with ramps the complicated traffic fl...

  12. Tabletop Traffic Jams: Modeling Traffic Jams using Self Propelled Particles

    Yadav, Vikrant; Kudrolli, Arshad


    We model behavior of traffic using Self Propelled Particles (SPPs). Granular rods with asymmetric mass distribution confined to move in a circular channel on a vibrated substrate and interact with each other through inelastic collision serve as our model vehicle. Motion of a single vehicle is observed to be composed of 2 parts, a linear velocity in the direction of lighter end of particle and a non-Gaussian random velocity. We find that the collective mean speed of the SPPs is constant over a wide range of line densities before decreasing rapidly as the maximum packing is approached indicating the spontaneous formation of Phantom jams. This decrease in speed is observed to be far greater than any small differences in the mean drift speed of individual SPPs , and occurs as the collision frequency between SPPs increase exponentially with line density. However the random velocity component of SPPs remain super-diffusive over entire range of line densities. While the collective motion at low densities is characterized by caravan following behind the slowest particle leading to clustering, at higher densities we see formation of jamming waves travelling in direction opposite to that of motion of particles.

  13. Transfer Rate Models for Gnutella Signaling Traffic


    This paper reports on transfer rate models for the Gnutella signaling protocol. New results on message-level and IP-level rates are presented. The models are based on traffic captured at the Blekinge Institute of Technology (BTH) campus in Sweden and offer several levels of granularity: message type, application layer and network layer. The aim is to obtain parsimonous models suitable for analysis and simulation of P2P workload. IEEE Explorer

  14. Chaos control in traffic flow models

    Shahverdiev, E M; Shahverdiev, Elman Mohammed; Tadaki, Shin-ichi


    Chaos control in some of the one- and two-dimensional traffic flow dynamical models in the mean field theory is studied.One dimensional model is investigated taking into account the effect of random delay. Two dimensional model takes into account the effects of overpasses, symmetric distribution of cars and blockages of cars moving in the same direction. Chaos synchronization is performed within both replica and nonreplica approaches, and using parameter perturbation method.

  15. Optimisation Issues of High Throughput Medical Data and Video Streaming Traffic in 3G Wireless Environments.

    Istepanian, R S H; Philip, N


    In this paper we describe some of the optimisation issues relevant to the requirements of high throughput of medical data and video streaming traffic in 3G wireless environments. In particular we present a challenging 3G mobile health care application that requires a demanding 3G medical data throughput. We also describe the 3G QoS requirement of mObile Tele-Echography ultra-Light rObot system (OTELO that is designed to provide seamless 3G connectivity for real-time ultrasound medical video streams and diagnosis from a remote site (robotic and patient station) manipulated by an expert side (specialists) that is controlling the robotic scanning operation and presenting a real-time feedback diagnosis using 3G wireless communication links.

  16. Animal models for auditory streaming.

    Itatani, Naoya; Klump, Georg M


    Sounds in the natural environment need to be assigned to acoustic sources to evaluate complex auditory scenes. Separating sources will affect the analysis of auditory features of sounds. As the benefits of assigning sounds to specific sources accrue to all species communicating acoustically, the ability for auditory scene analysis is widespread among different animals. Animal studies allow for a deeper insight into the neuronal mechanisms underlying auditory scene analysis. Here, we will review the paradigms applied in the study of auditory scene analysis and streaming of sequential sounds in animal models. We will compare the psychophysical results from the animal studies to the evidence obtained in human psychophysics of auditory streaming, i.e. in a task commonly used for measuring the capability for auditory scene analysis. Furthermore, the neuronal correlates of auditory streaming will be reviewed in different animal models and the observations of the neurons' response measures will be related to perception. The across-species comparison will reveal whether similar demands in the analysis of acoustic scenes have resulted in similar perceptual and neuronal processing mechanisms in the wide range of species being capable of auditory scene analysis.This article is part of the themed issue 'Auditory and visual scene analysis'.

  17. Modeling Spatially Unrestricted Pedestrian Traffic on Footbridges

    Zivanovic, Stana; Pavic, Aleksandar; Ingólfsson, Einar Thór


    The research into modelling walking-induced dynamic loading and its effects on footbridge structures and people using them has been intensified in the last decade after some high profile vibration serviceability failures. In particular, the crowd induced loading, characterised by spatially...... restricted movement of pedestrians, has kept attracting attention of researchers. However, it is the normal spatially unrestricted pedestrian traffic, and its vertical dynamic loading component, that are most relevant for vibration serviceability checks for most footbridges. Despite the existence of numerous...... design procedures concerned with this loading, the current confidence in its modelling is low due to lack of verification of the models on as-built structures. This is the motivation behind reviewing the existing design procedures for modelling normal pedestrian traffic in this paper and evaluating...


    WEI Yan-fang; GUO Si-ling; XUE Yu


    In this article, the traffic hydrodynamic model considering the driver's reaction time was applied to the traffic analysis at the intersections on real roads. In the numerical simulation with the model, the pinch effect of the right-turning vehicles flow was found, which mainly leads to traffic jamming on the straight lane. All of the results in accordance with the empirical data confirm the applicability of this model.

  19. Bayesian Data Assimilation for Improved Modeling of Road Traffic

    Van Hinsbergen, C.P.Y.


    This thesis deals with the optimal use of existing models that predict certain phenomena of the road traffic system. Such models are extensively used in Advanced Traffic Information Systems (ATIS), Dynamic Traffic Management (DTM) or Model Predictive Control (MPC) approaches in order to improve the

  20. Traffic modelling validation of advanced driver assistance systems

    Tongeren, R. van; Gietelink, O.J.; Schutter, B. de; Verhaegen, M.


    This paper presents a microscopic traffic model for the validation of advanced driver assistance systems. This model describes single-lane traffic and is calibrated with data from a field operational test. To illustrate the use of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation of single-lane traffic scenarios

  1. Integrating a macro emission model with a macroscopic traffic model

    Klunder, G.A.; Stelwagen, U.; Taale, H.


    This paper presents a macro emission module for macroscopic traffic models to be used for assessment of ITS and traffic management. It especially focuses on emission estimates for different intersection types. It provides emission values for CO, CO2, HC, NOx, and PM10. It is applied and validated fo

  2. Kinetic derivation of a Hamilton-Jacobi traffic flow model

    Borsche, Raul; Kimathi, Mark


    Kinetic models for vehicular traffic are reviewed and considered from the point of view of deriving macroscopic equations. A derivation of the associated macroscopic traffic flow equations leads to different types of equations: in certain situations modified Aw-Rascle equations are obtained. On the other hand, for several choices of kinetic parameters new Hamilton-Jacobi type traffic equations are found. Associated microscopic models are discussed and numerical experiments are presented discussing several situations for highway traffic and comparing the different models.

  3. Complex Behaviors of a Simple Traffic Model

    GAO Xing-Ru


    In this paper, we propose a modified traffic model in which a single car moves through a sequence of traffic lights controlled by a step function instead of a sine function. In contrast to the previous work [Phys. Rev. E 70 (2004)016107], we have investigated in detail the dependence of the behavior on four parameters, ω, α, η, and a1, and given three kinds of bifurcation diagrams, which show three kinds of complex behaviors. We have found that in this model there are chaotic and complex periodic motions, as well as special singularities. We have also analyzed the characteristic of the complex period motion and the essential feature of the singularity.

  4. Tri-level programming model for combined urban traffic signal control and traffic flow guidance

    孙智源; 陆化普; 屈闻聪


    In order to balance the temporal-spatial distribution of urban traffic flow, a model is established for combined urban traffic signal control and traffic flow guidance. With consideration of the wide use of fixed signal control at intersections, traffic assignment under traffic flow guidance, and dynamic characteristics of urban traffic management, a tri-level programming model is presented. To reflect the impact of intersection delay on traffic assignment, the lower level model is set as a modified user equilibrium model. The middle level model, which contains several definitional constraints for different phase modes, is built for the traffic signal control optimization. To solve the problem of tide lane management, the upper level model is built up based on nonlinear 0-1 integer programming. A heuristic iterative optimization algorithm (HIOA) is set up to solve the tri-level programming model. The lower level model is solved by method of successive averages (MSA), the middle level model is solved by non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II), and the upper level model is solved by genetic algorithm (GA). A case study is raised to show the efficiency and applicability of the proposed modelling and computing method.

  5. Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

    Bliemer, M.C.J.; Raadsen, M.P.H.; Brederode, L.J.N.; Bell, M.G.H.; Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; Smith, M.J.


    This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic

  6. Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

    Bliemer, M.C.J.; Raadsen, M.; Brederode, L.; Bell, M.; Wismans, L.J.J.; Smith, M.


    This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic

  7. An Area-Aggregated Dynamic Traffic Simulation Model

    Knoop, V.L.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    Microscopic and macroscopic dynamic traffic models not fast enough to run in an optimization loop to coordinate traffic measures over areas of twice a trip length (50x50 km). Moreover, in strategic planning there are models with a spatial high level of detail, but lacking the features of traffic

  8. Validation of Air Traffic Controller Workload Models


    SAR) tapes dtirinq the data reduc- tion phase of the project. Kentron International Limited provided the software support for the oroject. This included... ETABS ) or to revised traffic control procedures. The models also can be used to verify productivity benefits after new configurations have been...col- lected and processed manually. A preliminary compari- son has been made between standard NAS Stage A and ETABS operations at Miami. 1.2

  9. Robust identification for multi-section freeway traffic models

    Zhongke SHI


    Since it is difficult to fit measured parameters using the conventional traffic model, a new traffic density and average speed model is introduced in this paper.To determine traffic model structures accurately, a model identification method for uncertain nonlinear system is developed.To simplify uncertain nonlinear problem, this paper presents a new robust criterion to identify the multi-section traffic model structure of freeway efficiently.In the new model identification criterion,numerically efficient U-D factorization is used to avoid computing the determinant values of two complex matrices.By estimating the values of U-D factor of data matrix, both the upper and lower bounds of system uncertainties are described. Thus a model structure identification algorithm is proposed.Comparisons between identification outputs and simulation outputs of traffic states show that the traffic states can be accurately predicted by means of the new traffic models and the structure identification criterion.

  10. Research on the Method of Traffic Organization and Optimization Based on Dynamic Traffic Flow Model

    Shu-bin Li


    Full Text Available The modern transportation system is becoming sluggish by traffic jams, so much so that it can harm the economic and society in our country. One of the reasons is the surging vehicles day by day. Another reason is the shortage of the traffic supply seriously. But the most important reason is that the traffic organization and optimization hardly met the conditions of modern transport development. In this paper, the practical method of the traffic organization and optimization used in regional area is explored by the dynamic traffic network analysis method. Firstly, the operational states of the regional traffic network are obtained by simulation method based on the self-developed traffic simulation software DynaCHINA, in which the improved traffic flow simulation model was proposed in order to be more suitable for actual domestic urban transport situation. Then the appropriated optimization model and algorithm were proposed according to different optimized content and organization goals, and the traffic simulation processes more suitable to regional optimization were designed exactly. Finally, a regional network in Tai’an city was selected as an example. The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and feasible. It can provide strong scientific and technological support for the traffic management department.

  11. Study of Network Traffic Analysis Model Based on Time Granularity

    Tan,Xi-aoling; Xu,Yong; Mei,Chenggang; Liu,Lan


    An analytic research on establishing different traffic models on the traffic nature of different time granularity can provide necessary academic foundation for network design and simulation as well as ensuring the quality of service and network management. This paper aims to make simulant predication by means of corresponding math tools on the modeling of real traftic of the different time granularity. The experimental results indicate that the predicated traffic is close to the real traffic distribution.

  12. A Bayesian inference approach to the development of a multidirectional pedestrian stream model


    In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to represent the conflicting effects of multidirectional pedestrian flows in a large crowd. The model is formulated based on Drake's model of traffic flow. Rather than relate the speed of a pedestrian stream solely to the pedestrian density, we introduce the flow ratio and intersecting angle between streams as variables. To calibrate the model, data collection was conducted through the video recording of pedestrian movements on a pedestrian stree...

  13. Traffic modelling framework for electric vehicles

    Schlote, Arieh; Crisostomi, Emanuele; Kirkland, Stephen; Shorten, Robert


    This article reviews and improves a recently proposed model of road network dynamics. The model is also adapted and generalised to represent the patterns of battery consumption of electric vehicles travelling in the road network. Simulations from the mobility simulator SUMO are given to support and to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach. Applications relevant in the field of electric vehicles, such as optimal routing and traffic load control, are provided to illustrate how the proposed model can be used to address typical problems arising in contemporary road network planning and electric vehicle mobility.

  14. Cellular automata models for synchronized traffic flow

    Jiang Rui


    This paper presents a new cellular automata model for describing synchronized traffic flow. The fundamental diagrams, the spacetime plots and the 1 min average data have been analysed in detail. It is shown that the model can describe the outflow from the jams, the light synchronized flow as well as heavy synchronized flow with average speed greater than approximately 24 km h sup - sup 1. As for the synchronized flow with speed lower than 24 km h sup - sup 1 , it is unstable and will evolve into the coexistence of jams, free flow and light synchronized flow. This is consistent with the empirical findings (Kerner B S 1998 Phys. Rev. Lett. 81 3797).

  15. Statistical modelling of traffic safety development

    Christens, Peter


    : - Statistisk modellering af trafik uheld, Trafikdage på Ålborg Univeristet, 2001. - Sociale karakteristika hos trafikofre, Danish Transport Research Institute, 2001. - Models for traffic accidents, FERSI Young Researchers' Seminar, 2001. - Evaluation of the Danish Automatic Mobile Speed Camera Project...... 2000 dræbte trafikuheld over 40.000 i EU og skadede over 1.7 millioner. I Danmark i 2001 var der 6861 politirapporteret trafikuheld med tilskadekomst. De resulterede i 4519 lettere tilskadekomne, 3946 alvorligt tilskadekomne og 431 dræbte. Det generelle formål med dette forskningsarbejde er at forbedre...

  16. Parikh Matching in the Streaming Model

    Lee, Lap-Kei; Lewenstein, Moshe; Zhang, Qin


    |-length count vector. In the streaming model one seeks space-efficient algorithms for problems in which there is one pass over the data. We consider Parikh matching in the streaming model. To make this viable we search for substrings whose Parikh-mappings approximately match the input vector. In this paper we...... present upper and lower bounds on the problem of approximate Parikh matching in the streaming model....

  17. How many probe vehicles are enough for identifying traffic congestion?-a study from a streaming data perspective

    Handong WANG; Yang YUE; Qingquan LI


    Many studies have been carried out using vehicle trajectory to analyze traffic conditions,for instance,identifying traffic congestion.However,there is a lack of a systematic study on the appropriate number of probe vehicles and their sampling interval in order to identify traffic congestion accurately.Moreover,most of related studies ignore the streaming feature of trajectory data.This paper first represents a novel method of identifying traffic congestion considering the stream feature of vehicle trajectories.Instead of processing the whole data stream,a series of snapshots are extracted.Congested road segments can be identified by analyzing the clusters' evolution among a series of adjacent snapshots.We then calculated a series of parameters and their corresponding congestion identification accuracy.The results have implications for related probe vehicle deployment and traffic analysis; for example,when 5% of probe vehicles are available,85% identification accuracy can be reached if the sampling time interval is 10 s.

  18. COST 329 : towards European models for traffic and traffic safety developments.

    Oppe, S.


    The aim of COST Activity 329 is to specify an efficient methodology for the analysis of past and future traffic safety developments based on available knowledge. This includes the applicability of time-series modelling techniques. It is planned to make use of traffic speed developments to detect une

  19. Monitoring road traffic congestion using a macroscopic traffic model and a statistical monitoring scheme

    Zeroual, Abdelhafid


    Monitoring vehicle traffic flow plays a central role in enhancing traffic management, transportation safety and cost savings. In this paper, we propose an innovative approach for detection of traffic congestion. Specifically, we combine the flexibility and simplicity of a piecewise switched linear (PWSL) macroscopic traffic model and the greater capacity of the exponentially-weighted moving average (EWMA) monitoring chart. Macroscopic models, which have few, easily calibrated parameters, are employed to describe a free traffic flow at the macroscopic level. Then, we apply the EWMA monitoring chart to the uncorrelated residuals obtained from the constructed PWSL model to detect congested situations. In this strategy, wavelet-based multiscale filtering of data has been used before the application of the EWMA scheme to improve further the robustness of this method to measurement noise and reduce the false alarms due to modeling errors. The performance of the PWSL-EWMA approach is successfully tested on traffic data from the three lane highway portion of the Interstate 210 (I-210) highway of the west of California and the four lane highway portion of the State Route 60 (SR60) highway from the east of California, provided by the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Results show the ability of the PWSL-EWMA approach to monitor vehicle traffic, confirming the promising application of this statistical tool to the supervision of traffic flow congestion.

  20. A lattice traffic model with consideration of preceding mixture traffic information

    Li Zhi-Peng; Liu Fu-Qiang; Sun Jian


    In this paper,the lattice model is presented,incorporating not only site information about preceding cars but also relative currents in front.We derive the stability condition of the extended model by considering a small perturbation around the homogeneous flow solution and find that the improvement in the stability of traffic flow is obtained by taking into account preceding mixture traffic information.Direct simulations also confirm that the traffic jam can be suppressed efficiently by considering the relative currents ahead,just like incorporating site information in front.Moreover,from the nonlinear analysis of the extended models,the preceding mixture traffic information dependence of the propagating kink solutions for traffic jams is obtained by deriving the modified KdV equation near the critical point using the reductive perturbation method.

  1. Simulation Model of Traffic Jam at Crossroads

    Mladen Kalajžić


    Full Text Available Traffic congestion is one of the major problems in most cities.It is the consequence of unavoidable motorization, butalso, in many cases, of improper solutions considering constructionof roads or organisation of traffic.This paper deals with one problematic crossroad in thetown of Zadar in which traffic jams occur due to poor organisationof traffic. Using mathematical simulation, the first partproves that traffic jams will certainly occur, and in the secondpart, crossroads signalling is considered as a possible solutionwhich, if combined with intelligent control could significantlyimprove the organisation of traffic at this crossroads.

  2. Traffic Congestion Model: Challenges and Opportunities

    Enjat Munajat, M. D.; Munir, Rinaldi; Widyantoro, Dwi H.


    This paper discusses models to detect traffic congestion using two approaches: road detection and moving object detection. There are two methods proposed to detect roads and moving objects. The methods involve the detection of both moving and non-moving objects. The system presented in this paper is able to detect roads as well as moving objects. However, further development is needed to detect extreme road curves. The system presented in this paper is relatively inexpensive since it only uses one camera and capable of capturing satisfactorily detailed images.

  3. Road traffic impact on urban water quality: a step towards integrated traffic, air and stormwater modelling.

    Fallah Shorshani, Masoud; Bonhomme, Céline; Petrucci, Guido; André, Michel; Seigneur, Christian


    Methods for simulating air pollution due to road traffic and the associated effects on stormwater runoff quality in an urban environment are examined with particular emphasis on the integration of the various simulation models into a consistent modelling chain. To that end, the models for traffic, pollutant emissions, atmospheric dispersion and deposition, and stormwater contamination are reviewed. The present study focuses on the implementation of a modelling chain for an actual urban case study, which is the contamination of water runoff by cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) in the Grigny urban catchment near Paris, France. First, traffic emissions are calculated with traffic inputs using the COPERT4 methodology. Next, the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants is simulated with the Polyphemus line source model and pollutant deposition fluxes in different subcatchment areas are calculated. Finally, the SWMM water quantity and quality model is used to estimate the concentrations of pollutants in stormwater runoff. The simulation results are compared to mass flow rates and concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn measured at the catchment outlet. The contribution of local traffic to stormwater contamination is estimated to be significant for Pb and, to a lesser extent, for Zn and Cd; however, Pb is most likely overestimated due to outdated emissions factors. The results demonstrate the importance of treating distributed traffic emissions from major roadways explicitly since the impact of these sources on concentrations in the catchment outlet is underestimated when those traffic emissions are spatially averaged over the catchment area.

  4. Highway traffic model-based density estimation

    Morarescu, Irinel - Constantin; CANUDAS DE WIT, Carlos


    International audience; The travel time spent in traffic networks is one of the main concerns of the societies in developed countries. A major requirement for providing traffic control and services is the continuous prediction, for several minutes into the future. This paper focuses on an important ingredient necessary for the traffic forecasting which is the real-time traffic state estimation using only a limited amount of data. Simulation results illustrate the performances of the proposed ...

  5. A macroscopic model of traffic jams in axons.

    Kuznetsov, A V; Avramenko, A A


    The purpose of this paper is to develop a minimal macroscopic model capable of explaining the formation of traffic jams in fast axonal transport. The model accounts for the decrease of the number density of positively (and negatively) oriented microtubules near the location of the traffic jam due to formation of microtubule swirls; the model also accounts for the reduction of the effective velocity of organelle transport in the traffic jam region due to organelles falling off microtubule tracks more often in the swirl region. The model is based on molecular-motor-assisted transport equations and the hydrodynamic model of traffic jams in highway traffic. Parametric analyses of the model's predictions for various values of viscosity of the traffic flow, variance of the velocity distribution, diffusivity of microtubule-bound and free organelles, rate constants for binding to and detachment from microtubules, relaxation time, and average motor velocities of the retrograde and anterograde transport, are carried out.

  6. Models for Predictive Railway Traffic Management

    Kecman, P.


    The potential growth in transport demand in the next decade and beyond requires a change from reactive to proactive traffic control to maintain and improve the reliability of railway traffic. In order to enable an anticipative approach to traffic management, it is necessary to develop the tools for

  7. Models for Predictive Railway Traffic Management

    Kecman, P.


    The potential growth in transport demand in the next decade and beyond requires a change from reactive to proactive traffic control to maintain and improve the reliability of railway traffic. In order to enable an anticipative approach to traffic management, it is necessary to develop the tools for

  8. Autonomous Traffic Signal Control Model with Neural Network Analogy

    Ohira, T


    We propose here an autonomous traffic signal control model based on analogy with neural networks. In this model, the length of cycle time period of traffic lights at each signal is autonomously adapted. We find a self-organizing collective behavior of such a model through simulation on a one-dimensional lattice model road: traffic congestion is greatly diffused when traffic signals have such autonomous adaptability with suitably tuned parameters. We also find that effectiveness of the system emerges through interactions between units and shows a threshold transition as a function of proportion of adaptive signals in the model.

  9. Assessing the reliability and validity of direct observation and traffic camera streams to measure helmet and motorcycle use.

    Zaccaro, Heather N; Carbone, Emily C; Dsouza, Nishita; Xu, Michelle R; Byrne, Mary C; Kraemer, John D


    There is a need to develop motorcycle helmet surveillance approaches that are less labour intensive than direct observation (DO), which is the commonly recommended but never formally validated approach, particularly in developing settings. This study sought to assess public traffic camera feeds as an alternative to DO, in addition to the reliability of DO under field conditions. DO had high inter-rater reliability, κ=0.88 and 0.84, respectively, for cycle type and helmet type, which reinforces its use as a gold standard. However, traffic camera-based data collection was found to be unreliable, with κ=0.46 and 0.53 for cycle type and helmet type. When bicycles, motorcycles and scooters were classified based on traffic camera streams, only 68.4% of classifications concurred with those made via DO. Given the current technology, helmet surveillance via traffic camera streams is infeasible, and there remains a need for innovative traffic safety surveillance approaches in low-income urban settings.

  10. A new dynamic model for heterogeneous traffic flow

    Tang, T. Q.; Huang, H. J.; Zhao, S. G.; Shang, H. Y.


    Based on the property of heterogeneous traffic flow, we in this Letter present a new car-following model. Applying the relationship between the micro and macro variables, a new dynamic model for heterogeneous traffic flow is obtained. The fundamental diagram and the jam density of the heterogeneous traffic flow consisting of bus and car are studied under three different conditions: (1) without any restrictions, (2) under the action of the traffic control policy that restrains some private cars and (3) using bus to replace the private cars restrained by the traffic control policy. The numerical results show that our model can describe some qualitative properties of the heterogeneous traffic flow consisting of bus and car, which verifies that our model is reasonable.

  11. Asymptotic Analysis of a Loss Model with Trunk Reservation I: Trunks Reserved for Fast Traffic

    John A. Morrison


    Full Text Available We consider a model for a single link in a circuit-switched network. The link has C circuits, and the input consists of offered calls of two types, that we call primary and secondary traffic. Of the C links, R are reserved for primary traffic. We assume that both traffic types arrive as Poisson arrival streams. Assuming that C is large and R=O(1, the arrival rate of primary traffic is O(C, while that of secondary traffic is smaller, of the order O(C. The holding times of the primary calls are assumed to be exponentially distributed with unit mean. Those of the secondary calls are exponentially distributed with a large mean, that is, O(C. Thus, the primary calls have fast arrivals and fast service, compared to the secondary calls. The loads for both traffic types are comparable (O(C, and we assume that the system is “critically loaded”; that is, the system's capacity is approximately equal to the total load. We analyze asymptotically the steady state probability that n1 (resp., n2 circuits are occupied by primary (resp., secondary calls. In particular, we obtain two-term asymptotic approximations to the blocking probabilities for both traffic types.

  12. An improved network model for railway traffic

    Li, Keping; Ma, Xin; Shao, Fubo

    In railway traffic, safety analysis is a key issue for controlling train operation. Here, the identification and order of key factors are very important. In this paper, a new network model is constructed for analyzing the railway safety, in which nodes are regarded as causation factors and links represent possible relationships among those factors. Our aim is to give all these nodes an importance order, and to find the in-depth relationship among these nodes including how failures spread among them. Based on the constructed network model, we propose a control method to ensure the safe state by setting each node a threshold. As the results, by protecting the Hub node of the constructed network, the spreading of railway accident can be controlled well. The efficiency of such a method is further tested with the help of numerical example.

  13. Traffic danger detection by visual attention model of sparse sampling

    夏利民; 刘涛; 谭论正


    A method to detect traffic dangers based on visual attention model of sparse sampling was proposed. The hemispherical sparse sampling model was used to decrease the amount of calculation which increases the detection speed. Bayesian probability model and Gaussian kernel function were applied to calculate the saliency of traffic videos. The method of multiscale saliency was used and the final saliency was the average of all scales, which increased the detection rates extraordinarily. The detection results of several typical traffic dangers show that the proposed method has higher detection rates and speed, which meets the requirement of real-time detection of traffic dangers.

  14. Traffic Modelling for Moving-Block Train Control System

    TANG Tao; LI Ke-Ping


    This paper presents a new cellular automaton (CA) model for train control system simulation.In the proposed CA model,the driver reactions to train movements are captured by some updated rules.The space-time diagram of traffic flow and the trajectory of train movement is used to obtain insight into the characteristic behavior of railway traffic flow.A number of simulation results demonstrate that the proposed CA model can be successfully used for the simulations of railway traffic.Not only the characteristic behavior of railway traffic flow can be reproduced,but also the simulation values of the minimum time headway are close to the theoretical values.

  15. Modelling Traffic in IMS Network Nodes

    BA Alassane


    Full Text Available IMS is well integrated with existing voice and data networks, while adopting many of their keycharacteristics.The Call Session Control Functions (CSCFs servers are the key part of the IMS structure. They are themain components responsible for processing and routing signalling messages.When CSCFs servers (P-CSCF, I-CSCF, S-CSCF are running on the same host, the SIP message can beinternally passed between SIP servers using a single operating system mechanism like a queue. It increasesthe reliability of the network [5], [6]. We have proposed in a last work for each type of service (between ICSCFand S-CSCF (call, data, multimedia.[23], to use less than two servers well dimensioned andrunning on the same operating system.Instead dimensioning servers, in order to increase performance, we try to model traffic on IMS nodes,particularly on entries nodes; it will provide results on separation of incoming flows, and then offer moresatisfactory service.

  16. A cellular automaton model for a bridge traffic bottleneck

    Shifa Xiao; Lingjiang Kong; Muren Liu


    A cellular automaton (CA) model is proposed in this paper to analyze a bridge traffic bottleneck. The simulation results with this model show that there are several phase transitions in the traffic average density, velocity and flow for each lane under a periodic boundary condition. An unstable phase in the traffic average density and velocity for the upstream and downstream lanes of the bridge is shown in a range of initial traffic densities. The critical points of the phase transitions and the phenomenon of the unstable phase found in the simulation are also explained with the mean-field theory.

  17. Tunneling Horizontal IEC 61850 Traffic through Audio Video Bridging Streams for Flexible Microgrid Control and Protection

    Michael Short


    Full Text Available In this paper, it is argued that some low-level aspects of the usual IEC 61850 mapping to Ethernet are not well suited to microgrids due to their dynamic nature and geographical distribution as compared to substations. It is proposed that the integration of IEEE time-sensitive networking (TSN concepts (which are currently implemented as audio video bridging (AVB technologies within an IEC 61850 / Manufacturing Message Specification framework provides a flexible and reconfigurable platform capable of overcoming such issues. A prototype test platform and bump-in-the-wire device for tunneling horizontal traffic through AVB are described. Experimental results are presented for sending IEC 61850 GOOSE (generic object oriented substation events and SV (sampled values messages through AVB tunnels. The obtained results verify that IEC 61850 event and sampled data may be reliably transported within the proposed framework with very low latency, even over a congested network. It is argued that since AVB streams can be flexibly configured from one or more central locations, and bandwidth reserved for their data ensuring predictability of delivery, this gives a solution which seems significantly more reliable than a pure MMS-based solution.

  18. Probabilistic traffic load model for short-span city bridges

    Hellebrandt, L.; Blom, C.B.M.; Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.


    In the coming years numerous existing traffic bridges in cities are subject to re-evaluation. In this paper a new probabilistic traffic load model for short-span bridges is proposed. As an example, site-specific weigh-in-motion data from Rotterdam, the Netherlands, is included in the model. The

  19. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.


    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a network

  20. A cellular automaton model for ship traffic flow in waterways

    Qi, Le; Zheng, Zhongyi; Gang, Longhui


    With the development of marine traffic, waterways become congested and more complicated traffic phenomena in ship traffic flow are observed. It is important and necessary to build a ship traffic flow model based on cellular automata (CAs) to study the phenomena and improve marine transportation efficiency and safety. Spatial discretization rules for waterways and update rules for ship movement are two important issues that are very different from vehicle traffic. To solve these issues, a CA model for ship traffic flow, called a spatial-logical mapping (SLM) model, is presented. In this model, the spatial discretization rules are improved by adding a mapping rule. And the dynamic ship domain model is considered in the update rules to describe ships' interaction more exactly. Take the ship traffic flow in the Singapore Strait for example, some simulations were carried out and compared. The simulations show that the SLM model could avoid ship pseudo lane-change efficiently, which is caused by traditional spatial discretization rules. The ship velocity change in the SLM model is consistent with the measured data. At finally, from the fundamental diagram, the relationship between traffic ability and the lengths of ships is explored. The number of ships in the waterway declines when the proportion of large ships increases.

  1. Model for Predicting Roadside Concentrations of Traffic Pollutants

    YANG Zhongzhen; MIAO Guoqiang; WANG Lu


    An analytical model is presented to estimate traffic pollutant concentrations based on an artificial neural network (ANN) approach. The model can analyze the highly nonlinear relationship between the traffic flow attributes, meteorological conditions, road spatial characteristics, and the traffic pollutant concentrations.This study analyzes the multiple factors that affect the pollutant concentration and establishes the model structure using the ANN technique. Collected data for the pollutant concentrations as functions of variant factors was used to train the ANN model. A method was developed to automatically measure the traffic flow attributes, such as traffic flow, vehicle speed, and flow composition from video data. The results indicate that the model can reliably forecast CO2 concentrations along the roads.

  2. Study of the Characters of Self-Similar Traffic Stream Generated by High-Speed RMD Method%快速RMD法产生的自相似业务流的性质研究

    胡严; 刘星成; 张光昭


    传统的业务模型大多基于Poisson模型或其改进形式,假定业务突发长度显负指数分布.近期真实网络流量分析表明很多信息源会产生在多时间尺度下具有自相似特性的信息流.该性质显著地影响宽带网的流量控制及其排队分析.合成可控制的自相似业务流是进行仿真的第一步.实现了一个快速RMD算法的自相似流生成器;估计了产生的自相似流的Hurst参数;估计了两个或多个自相似流叠加后的流的Hurst参数;利用一种打乱算法成功地去掉了自相似流的长相关性.%The conventional models are mostly based on Poisson models or their improved versions.It is assumed that the distribution of burst length is exponential. Recent traffic analyses of a lot of networks have shown that many traffic sources produce traffic streams that are self-similar over several time scales. This character has severe impact on flow control and queuing analysis in broadband networks. A self-similar traffic stream generator using a high-speed RMD algorthm has been implemented. The Hurst parameters are estimated for those self-similar traffic streams from the generator and several superposed self-similar traffic streams.The autocorrelation structure of the self-similar traffic is destroyed by shuffling algorithm.

  3. Geosynchronous platform definition study. Volume 4, Part 2: Traffic analysis and system requirements for the new traffic model


    A condensed summary of the traffic analyses and systems requirements for the new traffic model is presented. The results of each study activity are explained, key analyses are described, and important results are highlighted.

  4. Effect of violating the traffic light rule in the Biham-Middleton-Levine traffic flow model

    Ding, Zhong-Jun; Jiang, Rui; Li, Ming; Li, Qi-Lang; Wang, Bing-Hong


    This paper studies the effect of violating the traffic light rule in the Biham-Middleton-Levine (BML) traffic flow model. It is assumed that there are two kinds of drivers: normal drivers obey the traffic light rule and violators disobey it. Simulation results show that although the existence of violators increases the average velocity in the free-flowing phase, it decreases the threshold from free-flowing phase to jam. With the presence of violators, a new kind of configuration with stripe slopes -2 and -1/2 has been found in the free-flowing phase. We have developed an analytical investigation which successfully predicts the average velocity in the free-flowing phase. A phase separation phenomenon, where jams and freely flowing traffic coexist, has been found in the intermediate car density range. The mechanism of the phase separation has been illustrated.

  5. Agents, Bookmarks and Clicks: A topical model of Web traffic

    Meiss, Mark; Ramasco, José J; Flammini, Alessandro; Menczer, Filippo


    Analysis of aggregate and individual Web traffic has shown that PageRank is a poor model of how people navigate the Web. Using the empirical traffic patterns generated by a thousand users, we characterize several properties of Web traffic that cannot be reproduced by Markovian models. We examine both aggregate statistics capturing collective behavior, such as page and link traffic, and individual statistics, such as entropy and session size. No model currently explains all of these empirical observations simultaneously. We show that all of these traffic patterns can be explained by an agent-based model that takes into account several realistic browsing behaviors. First, agents maintain individual lists of bookmarks (a non-Markovian memory mechanism) that are used as teleportation targets. Second, agents can retreat along visited links, a branching mechanism that also allows us to reproduce behaviors such as the use of a back button and tabbed browsing. Finally, agents are sustained by visiting novel pages of ...

  6. Macroscopic modeling for traffic flow on three-lane highways

    Chen, Jianzhong; Fang, Yuan


    In this paper, a macroscopic traffic flow model for three-lane highways is proposed. The model is an extension of the speed gradient model by taking into account the lane changing. The new source and sink terms of lane change rate are added into the continuity equations and the speed dynamic equations to describe the lane-changing behavior. The result of the steady state analysis shows that our model can describe the lane usage inversion phenomenon. The numerical results demonstrate that the present model effectively reproduces several traffic phenomena observed in real traffic such as shock and rarefaction waves, stop-and-go waves and local clusters.

  7. A simplified cellular automation model for city traffic

    Simon, P.M.; Nagel, K. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)]|[Santa Fe Inst., NM (United States)


    The authors systematically investigate the effect of blockage sites in a cellular automata model for traffic flow. Different scheduling schemes for the blockage sites are considered. None of them returns a linear relationship between the fraction of green time and the throughput. The authors use this information for a fast implementation of traffic in Dallas.

  8. Prediction Models of Free-Field Vibrations from Railway Traffic

    Malmborg, Jens; Persson, Kent; Persson, Peter


    and railways close to where people work and live. Annoyance from traffic-induced vibrations and noise is expected to be a growing issue. To predict the level of vibration and noise in buildings caused by railway and road traffic, calculation models are needed. In the present paper, a simplified prediction...

  9. The fundamental diagram : a macroscopic traffic flow model.

    Botma, H.


    In models of traffic flow, the interactions between vehicles are of prime interest, and are based on characteristics of the drivers, road and vehicles. The fundamental diagram is a representation of a relationship on a macroscopic level in the steady state between the quantity of traffic and a chara

  10. Geosynchronous platform definition study. Volume 4, Part 1: Traffic analysis and system requirements for the baseline traffic model


    The traffic analyses and system requirements data generated in the study resulted in the development of two traffic models; the baseline traffic model and the new traffic model. The baseline traffic model provides traceability between the numbers and types of geosynchronous missions considered in the study and the entire spectrum of missions foreseen in the total national space program. The information presented pertaining to the baseline traffic model includes: (1) definition of the baseline traffic model, including identification of specific geosynchronous missions and their payload delivery schedules through 1990; (2) Satellite location criteria, including the resulting distribution of the satellite population; (3) Geosynchronous orbit saturation analyses, including the effects of satellite physical proximity and potential electromagnetic interference; and (4) Platform system requirements analyses, including satellite and mission equipment descriptions, the options and limitations in grouping satellites, and on-orbit servicing criteria (both remotely controlled and man-attended).

  11. Stochastic evolutions of dynamic traffic flow modeling and applications

    Chen, Xiqun (Michael); Shi, Qixin


    This book reveals the underlying mechanisms of complexity and stochastic evolutions of traffic flows. Using Eulerian and Lagrangian measurements, the authors propose lognormal headway/spacing/velocity distributions and subsequently develop a Markov car-following model to describe drivers’ random choices concerning headways/spacings, putting forward a stochastic fundamental diagram model for wide scattering flow-density points. In the context of highway onramp bottlenecks, the authors present a traffic flow breakdown probability model and spatial-temporal queuing model to improve the stability and reliability of road traffic flows. This book is intended for researchers and graduate students in the fields of transportation engineering and civil engineering.


    姜锐; 吴清松; 朱祚金


    The analyses of kinematic wave properties of a new dynamics model for traffic flow are carried out. The model does not exhibit the problem that one characteristic speed is always greater than macroscopic traffic speed, and therefore satisfies the requirement that traffic flow is anisotropic. Linear stability analysis shows that the model is stable under certain condition and the condition is obtained. The analyses also indicate that the model has a hierarchy of first-and second-order waves, and allows the existence of both smooth traveling wave and shock wave. However, the model has a distinctive criterion of shock wave compared with other dynamics models, and the distinction makes the model more realistic in dealing with some traffic problems such as wrong-way travel analysis.

  13. A speed-flow relationship model of highway traffic flow

    WANG Wei; LI Wei; REN Gang


    In the view that the generally used speed-flow relationship model is insufficient in the traffic analysis under over-saturated conditions, this paper first establishes the theoretical models of speed flow relationship for each highway class based upon a large number of traffic data collected from the field. Then by analyzing the traffic flow dissipation mechanism under peak hour over-saturated traffic conditions, the speed flow relationship model structures for each highway class are reviewed under different traffic load conditions. Through curve-fitting of large numbers of observed data, functional equations of general speed-flow relationship models for each highway class under any traffic load conditions are established. The practical model parameters for each highway class under different design speeds are also put forward. This model is successful in solving the speed-forecasting problem of the traffic flow under peak hour over-saturated conditions. This provides the theoretical bases for the development of projects related to highway network planning, economic analysis, etc.

  14. Stochastic Car-Following Model for Explaining Nonlinear Traffic Phenomena

    Meng, Jianping; Song, Tao; Dong, Liyun; Dai, Shiqiang

    There is a common time parameter for representing the sensitivity or the lag (response) time of drivers in many car-following models. In the viewpoint of traffic psychology, this parameter could be considered as the perception-response time (PRT). Generally, this parameter is set to be a constant in previous models. However, PRT is actually not a constant but a random variable described by the lognormal distribution. Thus the probability can be naturally introduced into car-following models by recovering the probability of PRT. For demonstrating this idea, a specific stochastic model is constructed based on the optimal velocity model. By conducting simulations under periodic boundary conditions, it is found that some important traffic phenomena, such as the hysteresis and phantom traffic jams phenomena, can be reproduced more realistically. Especially, an interesting experimental feature of traffic jams, i.e., two moving jams propagating in parallel with constant speed stably and sustainably, is successfully captured by the present model.


    R. Golmohammadi ، M. Abbaspour ، P. Nassiri ، H. Mahjub


    Full Text Available Noise is one of the most important sources of pollution in the metropolitan areas. The recognition of road traffic noise as one of the main sources of environmental pollution has led to develop models that enable us to predict noise level from fundamental variables. Traffic noise prediction models are required as aids in the design of roads and sometimes in the assessment of existing, or envisaged changes in, traffic noise conditions. The purpose of this study was to design a prediction road traffic noise model from traffic variables and conditions of transportation in Iran.This paper is the result of a research conducted in the city of Hamadan with the ultimate objective of setting up a traffic noise model based on the traffic conditions of Iranian cities. Noise levels and other variables have been measured in 282 samples to develop a statistical regression model based on A-weighted equivalent noise level for Iranian road condition. The results revealed that the average LAeq in all stations was 69.04± 4.25 dB(A, the average speed of vehicles was 44.57±11.46 km/h and average traffic load was 1231.9 ± 910.2 V/h.The developed model has seven explanatory entrance variables in order to achieve a high regression coefficient (R2=0.901. Comparing means of predicted and measuring equivalent sound pressure level (LAeq showed small difference less than -0.42 dB(A and -0.77 dB(A for Tehran and Hamadan cities, respectively. The suggested road traffic noise model can be effectively used as a decision support tool for predicting equivalent sound pressure level index in the cities of Iran.

  16. A Discrete Velocity Traffic Kinetic Model Including Desired Speed

    Shoufeng Lu


    Full Text Available We introduce the desired speed variable into the table of games and formulate a new table of games and the corresponding discrete traffic kinetic model. We use the hybrid programming technique of VB and MATLAB to develop the program. Lastly, we compared the proposed model result and the detector data. The results show that the proposed model can describe the traffic flow evolution.

  17. Nonlinear stability of traffic models and the use of Lyapunov vectors for estimating the traffic state

    Palatella, Luigi; Trevisan, Anna; Rambaldi, Sandro


    Valuable information for estimating the traffic flow is obtained with current GPS technology by monitoring position and velocity of vehicles. In this paper, we present a proof of concept study that shows how the traffic state can be estimated using only partial and noisy data by assimilating them in a dynamical model. Our approach is based on a data assimilation algorithm, developed by the authors for chaotic geophysical models, designed to be equivalent but computationally much less demanding than the traditional extended Kalman filter. Here we show that the algorithm is even more efficient if the system is not chaotic and demonstrate by numerical experiments that an accurate reconstruction of the complete traffic state can be obtained at a very low computational cost by monitoring only a small percentage of vehicles.

  18. Analytical studies on a new lattice hydrodynamic traffic flow model with consideration of traffic current cooperation among three consecutive sites

    Li, Zhipeng; Zhong, Chenjie; Chen, Lizhu; Xu, Shangzhi; Qian, Yeqing


    In this paper, the original lattice hydrodynamic model of traffic flow is extended to take into account the traffic current cooperation among three consecutive sites. The basic idea of the new consideration is that the cooperative traffic current of the considered site is determined by the traffic currents of the site itself, the immediately preceding site and the immediately following one. The stability criterion of the extended model is obtained by applying the linear stability analysis. The result reveals the traffic current cooperation of the immediately preceding site is positive correlation with the stability of traffic system, while negative correlation is found between the traffic stability and the traffic current cooperation of the nearest follow site. To describe the phase transition, the modified KdV equation near the critical point is derived by using the reductive perturbation method, with obtaining the dependence of the propagation kink solution for traffic jams on the traffic current cooperation among three consecutive sites. The direct numerical are conducted to verify the results of theoretical analysis, and explore the effects of the traffic current cooperation on the traffic flux of the vehicle flow system.

  19. A Realistic Cellular Automaton Model for Synchronized Traffic Flow

    ZHAO Bo-Han; HU Mao-Bin; JIANG Rui; WU Qing-Song


    A cellular automaton model is proposed to consider the anticipation effect in drivers' behavior. It is shown that the anticipation effect can be one of the origins of synchronized traffic flow. With anticipation effect, the congested traffic flow simulated by the model exhibits the features of synchronized flow. The spatiotemporal patterns induced by an on-ramp are also consistent with the three-phaee traffic theory. Since the origin of synchronized flow is still controversial, our work can shed some light on the mechanism of synchronized flow.

  20. Estimation of traffic accident costs: a prompted model.

    Hejazi, Rokhshad; Shamsudin, Mad Nasir; Radam, Alias; Rahim, Khalid Abdul; Ibrahim, Zelina Zaitun; Yazdani, Saeed


    Traffic accidents are the reason for 25% of unnatural deaths in Iran. The main objective of this study is to find a simple model for the estimation of economic costs especially in Islamic countries (like Iran) in a straightforward manner. The model can show the magnitude of traffic accident costs with monetary equivalent. Data were collected from different sources that included traffic police records, insurance companies and hospitals. The conceptual framework, in our study, was based on the method of Ayati. He used this method for the estimation of economic costs in Iran. We promoted his method via minimum variables. Our final model has only three available variables which can be taken from insurance companies and police records. The running model showed that the traffic accident costs were US$2.2 million in 2007 for our case study route.

  1. Pattern-based approach for logical traffic isolation forensic modelling

    Dlamini, I


    Full Text Available The use of design patterns usually changes the approach of software design and makes software development relatively easy. This paper extends work on a forensic model for Logical Traffic Isolation (LTI) based on Differentiated Services (Diff...

  2. A model of traffic signs recognition with convolutional neural network

    Hu, Haihe; Li, Yujian; Zhang, Ting; Huo, Yi; Kuang, Wenqing


    In real traffic scenes, the quality of captured images are generally low due to some factors such as lighting conditions, and occlusion on. All of these factors are challengeable for automated recognition algorithms of traffic signs. Deep learning has provided a new way to solve this kind of problems recently. The deep network can automatically learn features from a large number of data samples and obtain an excellent recognition performance. We therefore approach this task of recognition of traffic signs as a general vision problem, with few assumptions related to road signs. We propose a model of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and apply the model to the task of traffic signs recognition. The proposed model adopts deep CNN as the supervised learning model, directly takes the collected traffic signs image as the input, alternates the convolutional layer and subsampling layer, and automatically extracts the features for the recognition of the traffic signs images. The proposed model includes an input layer, three convolutional layers, three subsampling layers, a fully-connected layer, and an output layer. To validate the proposed model, the experiments are implemented using the public dataset of China competition of fuzzy image processing. Experimental results show that the proposed model produces a recognition accuracy of 99.01 % on the training dataset, and yield a record of 92% on the preliminary contest within the fourth best.

  3. Earthquake Model Confirms Traffic Jams Caused by Tiredness

    Jarai-Szabo, Ferenc


    A simple one-dimensional spring-block model elaborated for the idealized single-lane highway traffic reveals the causes for the emergence of traffic jams. Based on the stop-time statistics of one car in the row, an order parameter is defined and studied. By extensive computer simulations, the parameter space of the model is explored, analyzed and interpreted. Existence of a free a and congested flow phases is confirmed and the transition between them is analyzed.

  4. Development of Road Traffic Assignment and Assessment Sub-Model Applied in the Traffic Study ...

    Dražen Topolnik


    Full Text Available The described sub-model is just one small segment of theTraffic Study of the City of Zagreb, in the development of whichnumerous foreign and national experts and institutions tookpart. After comprehensive collection and processing of inputdata, the traffic experts, using the software package "MVATRIPS" for the analysis and search for optimal solutions to theproblem of traffic system, provided the models of public urbantransit for the future.This paper describes the analysis and assessment of sub-models in road traffic assignment for the morning peak, afternoonpeak and average off-peak hours. The principles of assignmentprocedure have been described as well as the convergencetests. The following has been specified: the users categories,the public transit pre-load, and the passenger car unit(PC U. The key guideline in selecting the route is a generalisedformulation of costs presented in the paper. The procedures ofcalibration and the assessment of the finite model have alsobeen defined according to the screenline flows, link flows, andtravelling times. In the end, the summary is given of the basiccharacteristics of the finite travelling matrices.

  5. Traffic chaotic dynamics modeling and analysis of deterministic network

    Wu, Weiqiang; Huang, Ning; Wu, Zhitao


    Network traffic is an important and direct acting factor of network reliability and performance. To understand the behaviors of network traffic, chaotic dynamics models were proposed and helped to analyze nondeterministic network a lot. The previous research thought that the chaotic dynamics behavior was caused by random factors, and the deterministic networks would not exhibit chaotic dynamics behavior because of lacking of random factors. In this paper, we first adopted chaos theory to analyze traffic data collected from a typical deterministic network testbed — avionics full duplex switched Ethernet (AFDX, a typical deterministic network) testbed, and found that the chaotic dynamics behavior also existed in deterministic network. Then in order to explore the chaos generating mechanism, we applied the mean field theory to construct the traffic dynamics equation (TDE) for deterministic network traffic modeling without any network random factors. Through studying the derived TDE, we proposed that chaotic dynamics was one of the nature properties of network traffic, and it also could be looked as the action effect of TDE control parameters. A network simulation was performed and the results verified that the network congestion resulted in the chaotic dynamics for a deterministic network, which was identical with expectation of TDE. Our research will be helpful to analyze the traffic complicated dynamics behavior for deterministic network and contribute to network reliability designing and analysis.

  6. The comfortable driving model revisited: Traffic phases and phase transitions

    Knorr, Florian


    We study the spatiotemporal patterns resulting from different boundary conditions for a microscopic traffic model and contrast it with empirical results. By evaluating the time series of local measurements, the local traffic states are assigned to the different traffic phases of Kerner's three-phase traffic theory. For this classification we use the rule-based FOTO-method, which provides `hard' rules for this assignment. Using this approach, our analysis shows that the model is indeed able to reproduce three qualitatively different traffic phases: free flow (F), synchronized traffic (S), and wide moving jams (J). In addition, we investigate the likelihood of transitions between the three traffic phases. We show that a transition from free flow (F) to a wide moving jam (J) often involves an intermediate transition; first from free flow F to synchronized flow S and then from synchronized flow to a wide moving jam. This is supported by the fact that the so called F->S transition (from free flow to synchronized t...

  7. Traffic flow characteristics in a mixed traffic system consisting of ACC vehicles and manual vehicles: A hybrid modelling approach

    Yuan, Yao-Ming; Jiang, Rui; Hu, Mao-Bin; Wu, Qing-Song; Wang, Ruili


    In this paper, we have investigated traffic flow characteristics in a traffic system consisting of a mixture of adaptive cruise control (ACC) vehicles and manual-controlled (manual) vehicles, by using a hybrid modelling approach. In the hybrid approach, (i) the manual vehicles are described by a cellular automaton (CA) model, which can reproduce different traffic states (i.e., free flow, synchronised flow, and jam) as well as probabilistic traffic breakdown phenomena; (ii) the ACC vehicles are simulated by using a car-following model, which removes artificial velocity fluctuations due to intrinsic randomisation in the CA model. We have studied the traffic breakdown probability from free flow to congested flow, the phase transition probability from synchronised flow to jam in the mixed traffic system. The results are compared with that, where both ACC vehicles and manual vehicles are simulated by CA models. The qualitative and quantitative differences are indicated.

  8. Modeling a bus through a sequence of traffic lights.

    Villalobos, Jorge; Muñoz, Víctor; Rogan, José; Zarama, Roberto; Penagos, Juan Felipe; Toledo, Benjamín; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro


    We propose a model of a bus traveling through a sequence of traffic lights, which is required to stop between the traffic signals to pick up passengers. A two dimensional model, of velocity and traveled time at each traffic light, is constructed, which shows non-trivial and chaotic behaviors for realistic city traffic parameters. We restrict the parameter values where these non-trivial and chaotic behaviors occur, by following analytically and numerically the fixed points and period 2 orbits. We define conditions where chaos may arise by determining regions in parameter space where the maximum Lyapunov exponent is positive. Chaos seems to occur as long as the ratio of the braking and accelerating capacities are greater than about ∼3.

  9. Calibration of microscopic traffic simulation models using metaheuristic algorithms

    Miao Yu


    Full Text Available This paper presents several metaheuristic algorithms to calibrate a microscopic traffic simulation model. The genetic algorithm (GA, Tabu Search (TS, and a combination of the GA and TS (i.e., warmed GA and warmed TS are implemented and compared. A set of traffic data collected from the I-5 Freeway, Los Angles, California, is used. Objective functions are defined to minimize the difference between simulated and field traffic data which are built based on the flow and speed. Several car-following parameters in VISSIM, which can significantly affect the simulation outputs, are selected to calibrate. A better match to the field measurements is reached with the GA, TS, and warmed GA and TS when comparing with that only using the default parameters in VISSIM. Overall, TS performs very well and can be used to calibrate parameters. Combining metaheuristic algorithms clearly performs better and therefore is highly recommended for calibrating microscopic traffic simulation models.

  10. Diagnosing Traffic Anomalies Using a Two-Phase Model

    Bin Zhang; Jia-Hai Yang; Jian-Ping Wu; Ying-Wu Zhu


    Network traffic anomalies are unusual changes in a network,so diagnosing anomalies is important for network management.Feature-based anomaly detection models (ab)normal network traffic behavior by analyzing packet header features. PCA-subspace method (Principal Component Analysis) has been verified as an efficient feature-based way in network-wide anomaly detection.Despite the powerful ability of PCA-subspace method for network-wide traffic detection,it cannot be effectively used for detection on a single link.In this paper,different from most works focusing on detection on flow-level traffic,based on observations of six traffc features for packet-level traffic,we propose a new approach B6SVM to detect anomalies for packet-level traffic on a single link.The basic idea of B6-SVM is to diagnose anomalies in a multi-dimensional view of traffic features using Support Vector Machine (SVM).Through two-phase classification,B6-SVM can detect anomalies with high detection rate and low false alarm rate.The test results demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of our technique in diagnosing anomalies.Further,compared to previous feature-based anomaly detection approaches,B6-SVM provides a framework to automatically identify possible anomalous types.The framework of B6-SVM is generic and therefore,we expect the derived insights will be helpful for similar future research efforts.

  11. An integrated modelling approach to estimate urban traffic emissions

    Misra, Aarshabh; Roorda, Matthew J.; MacLean, Heather L.


    An integrated modelling approach is adopted to estimate microscale urban traffic emissions. The modelling framework consists of a traffic microsimulation model developed in PARAMICS, a microscopic emissions model (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model), and two dispersion models, AERMOD and the Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC). This framework is applied to a traffic network in downtown Toronto, Canada to evaluate summer time morning peak traffic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) during five weekdays at a traffic intersection. The model predicted results are validated against sensor observations with 100% of the AERMOD modelled CO concentrations and 97.5% of the QUIC modelled NOx concentrations within a factor of two of the corresponding observed concentrations. Availability of local estimates of ambient concentration is useful for accurate comparisons of predicted concentrations with observed concentrations. Predicted and sensor measured concentrations are significantly lower than the hourly threshold Maximum Acceptable Levels for CO (31 ppm, ˜90 times lower) and NO2 (0.4 mg/m3, ˜12 times lower), within the National Ambient Air Quality Objectives established by Environment Canada.

  12. Analytical results for a three-phase traffic model.

    Huang, Ding-wei


    We study analytically a cellular automaton model, which is able to present three different traffic phases on a homogeneous highway. The characteristics displayed in the fundamental diagram can be well discerned by analyzing the evolution of density configurations. Analytical expressions for the traffic flow and shock speed are obtained. The synchronized flow in the intermediate-density region is the result of aggressive driving scheme and determined mainly by the stochastic noise.

  13. Statistical modelling of traffic safety development

    Christens, Peter


    Road safety is a major concern for society and individuals. Although road safety has improved in recent years, the number of road fatalities is still unacceptably high. In 2000, road accidents killed over 40,000 people in the European Union and injured more than 1.7 million. In 2001 in Denmark......, that were designed to study developments over time, including effects of interventions. This aim has been achieved by investigating variations in aggregated Danish traffic accident series and by applying state of the art methodologies to specific case studies. The thesis comprises an introduction...... to accident data, and influential factors such as changing traffic volumes and demographic and economic trends. It highlights the limitations in the influential factors data-structure, in particular, their strong covariance and slow development over time. An important issue in this thesis was to investigate...

  14. Intercities traffic flow: linear and nonlinear models

    Otero, Dino; Mizrahi, Salomon S


    We simulate the traffic of vehicles circulating within a network formed by sites (cities, car-rental agencies, etc.) connected by two-way roads or highways, to which we shall refer generically as intercity traffic. Our aim is to forecast the flux of the vehicles for $n$ consecutive days, by taking as prior knowledge previous observations. The formal tools used in our analysis consists in: (1) making use of digraphs that allow the visualization and schematization of the problem, where edges correspond to roads, etc. and the vertices with loops represent the sites. (2) From an initial set of transition probabilities, that form a Markov chain, or from an empirical distribution of vehicles at the vertices and edges, we construct the Markov matrix which is a stochastic matrix (SM), and assume that the evolution of the traffic flows according to the power $n$ of the SM and, (3) the use of the Perron-Frobenius theory to analyze the outcomes. We identify several modes or regimes before the distribution of vehicles at...

  15. Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

    Chen, Neil


    There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

  16. A computer model of auditory stream segregation.

    Beauvois, M W; Meddis, R


    A computer model is described which simulates some aspects of auditory stream segregation. The model emphasizes the explanatory power of simple physiological principles operating at a peripheral rather than a central level. The model consists of a multi-channel bandpass-filter bank with a "noisy" output and an attentional mechanism that responds selectively to the channel with the greatest activity. A "leaky integration" principle allows channel excitation to accumulate and dissipate over time. The model produces similar results to two experimental demonstrations of streaming phenomena, which are presented in detail. These results are discussed in terms of the "emergent properties" of a system governed by simple physiological principles. As such the model is contrasted with higher-level Gestalt explanations of the same phenomena while accepting that they may constitute complementary kinds of explanation.

  17. Nonlinear analysis of traffic jams in an anisotropic continuum model

    Arvind Kumar Gupta; Sapna Sharma


    This paper presents our study of the nonlinear stability of a new anisotropic continuum traffic flow model in which the dimensionless parameter or anisotropic factor controls the non-isotropic character and diffusive influence. In order to establish traffic flow stability criterion or to know the critical parameters that lead, on one hand, to a stable response to perturbations or disturbances or, on the other hand, to an unstable response and therefore to a possible congestion, a nonlinear stability criterion is derived by using a wavefront expansion technique. The stability criterion is illustrated by numerical results using the finite difference method for two different values of anisotropic parameter. It is also been observed that the newly derived stability results are consistent with previously reported results obtained using approximate linearisation methods. Moreover, the stability criterion derived in this paper can provide more refined information from the perspective of the capability to reproduce nonlinear traffic flow behaviors observed in real traffic than previously established methodologies.

  18. [Development of forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries].

    Tan, Aichun; Tian, Danping; Huang, Yuanxiu; Gao, Lin; Deng, Xin; Li, Li; He, Qiong; Chen, Tianmu; Hu, Guoqing; Wu, Jing


    To develop the forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries and to provide evidence for predicting the future trends on road traffic injuries. Data on the mortality of road traffic injury including factors as gender and age in different countries, were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Other information on GDP per capita, urbanization, motorization and education were collected from online resources of World Bank, WHO, the United Nations Population Division and other agencies. We fitted logarithmic models of road traffic injury mortality by gender and age group, including predictors of GDP per capita, urbanization, motorization and education. Sex- and age-specific forecasting models developed by WHO that including GDP per capita, education and time etc. were also fitted. Coefficient of determination(R(2)) was used to compare the performance between our modes and WHO models. 2 626 sets of data were collected from 153 countries/regions for both genders, between 1965 and 2010. The forecasting models of road traffic injury mortality based on GDP per capita, motorization, urbanization and education appeared to be statistically significant(P forecasting models that we developed seemed to be better than those developed by WHO.

  19. Performance Modeling for Heterogeneous Wireless Networks with Multiservice Overflow Traffic

    Huang, Qian; Ko, King-Tim; Iversen, Villy Bæk


    Performance modeling is important for the purpose of developing efficient dimensioning tools for large complicated networks. But it is difficult to achieve in heterogeneous wireless networks, where different networks have different statistical characteristics in service and traffic models....... Multiservice loss analysis based on multi-dimensional Markov chain becomes intractable in these networks due to intensive computations required. This paper focuses on performance modeling for heterogeneous wireless networks based on a hierarchical overlay infrastructure. A method based on decomposition...... of the correlated traffic is used to achieve an approximate performance modeling for multiservice in hierarchical heterogeneous wireless networks with overflow traffic. The accuracy of the approximate performance obtained by our proposed modeling is verified by simulations....

  20. Longitudinal dispersion modeling in small streams

    Pekarova, Pavla; Pekar, Jan; Miklanek, Pavol


    The environmental problems caused by the increasing of pollutant loads discharged into natural water bodies are very complex. For that reason the cognition of transport mechanism and mixing characteristics in natural streams is very important. The mathematical and numerical models have become very useful tools for solving the water management problems. The mathematical simulations based on numerical models of pollution mixing in streams can be used (for example) for prediction of spreading of accidental contaminant waves in rivers. The paper deals with the estimation of the longitudinal dispersion coefficients and with the numerical simulation of transport and transformation of accidental pollution in the small natural streams. There are different ways of solving problems of pollution spreading in open channels, in natural rivers. One of them is the hydrodynamic approach, which endeavours to understand and quantify the spreading phenomenon in a stream. The hydrodynamic models are based on advection-diffusion equation and the majority of them are one-dimensional models. Their disadvantage is inability to simulate the spread of pollution until complete dispersion of pollutant across the stream section is finished. Two-dimensional mixing models do not suffer from these limitations. On the other hand, the one-dimensional models are simpler than two-dimensional ones, they need not so much input data and they are often swifter. Three-dimensional models under conditions of natural streams are applicable with difficulties (or inapplicable) for their complexity and demands on accuracy and amount of input data. As there was mentioned above the two-dimensional models can be used also until complete dispersion of pollutant across the stream section is not finished, so we decided to apply the two-dimensional model SIRENIE. Experimental microbasin Rybarik is the part of the experimental Mostenik brook basin of IH SAS Bratislava. It was established as a Field Hydrological

  1. Model-Based Traffic Control for Sustainable Mobility

    Zegeye, S.K.


    Computationally efficient dynamic fuel consumption, emissions, and dispersion of emissions models are developed. Fast and practically feasible model-based controller is proposed. Using the developed models, the controller steers the traffic flow in such a way that a balanced trade-off between the t

  2. Linking spatial and dynamic models for traffic maneuvers

    Olderog, Ernst-Rüdiger; Ravn, Anders Peter; Wisniewski, Rafal


    For traffic maneuvers of multiple vehicles on highways we build an abstract spatial and a concrete dynamic model. In the spatial model we show the safety (collision freedom) of lane-change maneuvers. By linking the spatial and dynamic model via suitable refinements of the spatial atoms to distance...

  3. A model for heterogeneous traffic flows including non-motorized vehicles

    Oketch, T.G.


    This study is concerned with developing a traffic flow and emissions model suitable for heterogeneous traffic streams containing motorised and non-motorised vehicles. Such streams contain vehicle types such as private cars, buses and trucks as well as bicycles, motorcycles and other vehicular forms. The model covers the different vehicle types and allows for peculiar behaviours prevalent in such streams. In addition to an existing deterministic car following rule, the model incorporates detailed lateral movement algorithm with gradual lane change manoeuvres, the decisions of which are governed by fuzzy logic rules. For determination of pollutant emissions, the travel lane was divided into finite elements and total emissions aggregated for each element depending on the vehicle speeds and types. A methodology for estimation of emission rates, based on vehicle maintenance history, for countries without reliable inventories was proposed and used to obtain emission coefficients of CO, HC, NOx and Pb emissions in Kenya. In conclusion, the model has demonstrated that heterogeneous traffic can be effectively analysed by approaches that take their peculiar characteristics into consideration. In addition, it has also provided new insight in the performance and emission patterns of heterogeneous traffic streams which can be used to formulate regulatory directives governing the usage of lanes or provision of auxiliary carriageways for slower vehicles. (orig.) [German] In dieser Arbeit wurde ein Verkehrsfluss- und Emissions-Model fuer heterogene Verkehrsstroeme entwickelt. Solche Verkehrsstroeme enthalten nicht nur motorisierte Fahrzeuge wie Pkw, Lkw, Omnibus, Motorrad usw. sondern auch nicht-motorisierte Fahrzeuge wie Fahrrad und auch besondere Fahrzeugtypen, die auf Motorraedern oder Fahrraedern basieren. Im Modell wurden auch die entsprechenden besonderen Verhaeltnisse dieser Fahrzeugtypen beruecksichtigt. Die Bewegung von Fahrzeugen wurde in zwei Dimensionen modelliert. Auf

  4. Traffic Behavior Recognition Using the Pachinko Allocation Model

    Thien Huynh-The


    Full Text Available CCTV-based behavior recognition systems have gained considerable attention in recent years in the transportation surveillance domain for identifying unusual patterns, such as traffic jams, accidents, dangerous driving and other abnormal behaviors. In this paper, a novel approach for traffic behavior modeling is presented for video-based road surveillance. The proposed system combines the pachinko allocation model (PAM and support vector machine (SVM for a hierarchical representation and identification of traffic behavior. A background subtraction technique using Gaussian mixture models (GMMs and an object tracking mechanism based on Kalman filters are utilized to firstly construct the object trajectories. Then, the sparse features comprising the locations and directions of the moving objects are modeled by PAMinto traffic topics, namely activities and behaviors. As a key innovation, PAM captures not only the correlation among the activities, but also among the behaviors based on the arbitrary directed acyclic graph (DAG. The SVM classifier is then utilized on top to train and recognize the traffic activity and behavior. The proposed model shows more flexibility and greater expressive power than the commonly-used latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA approach, leading to a higher recognition accuracy in the behavior classification.

  5. Comparison of road traffic emission models in Madrid (Spain)

    Borge, Rafael; de Miguel, Isabel; de la Paz, David; Lumbreras, Julio; Pérez, Javier; Rodríguez, Encarnación


    Many cities in Europe have difficulties to meet the air quality standards set by the European legislation, most particularly the annual mean Limit Value for NO2. Road transport is often the main source of air pollution in urban areas and therefore, there is an increasing need to estimate current and future traffic emissions as accurately as possible. As a consequence, a number of specific emission models and emission factors databases have been developed recently. They present important methodological differences and may result in largely diverging emission figures and thus may lead to alternative policy recommendations. This study compares two approaches to estimate road traffic emissions in Madrid (Spain): the COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT4 v.8.1) and the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA v.3.1), representative of the 'average-speed' and 'traffic situation' model types respectively. The input information (e.g. fleet composition, vehicle kilometres travelled, traffic intensity, road type, etc.) was provided by the traffic model developed by the Madrid City Council along with observations from field campaigns. Hourly emissions were computed for nearly 15 000 road segments distributed in 9 management areas covering the Madrid city and surroundings. Total annual NOX emissions predicted by HBEFA were a 21% higher than those of COPERT. The discrepancies for NO2 were lower (13%) since resulting average NO2/NOX ratios are lower for HBEFA. The larger differences are related to diesel vehicle emissions under "stop & go" traffic conditions, very common in distributor/secondary roads of the Madrid metropolitan area.In order to understand the representativeness of these results, the resulting emissions were integrated in an urban scale inventory used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system (1 km2 resolution). Modelled NO2 concentrations were compared

  6. Earthquake model describes traffic jams caused by imperfect driving styles

    Járai-Szabó, Ferenc; Néda, Zoltán


    The wide modeling potential of the classical spring-block type system is illustrated by an interdisciplinary application. A simple one-dimensional spring-block chain with asymmetric spring forces is used to model idealized single-lane highway traffic and the emergence of phantom traffic jams. Based on the stop-time statistics of one car in the row, a proper order parameter is defined. By extensive computer simulations the parameter space of the model is explored, analyzed and interpreted. Existence of free and congested flow phases is confirmed and the transition between them is analyzed.

  7. Continuum modeling for two-lane traffic flow

    Haijun Huang; Tieqiao Tang; Ziyou Gao


    In this paper,we study the continuum modeling of traffic dynamics for two-lane freeways.A new dynamics model is proposed, which contains the speed gradient-based momentum equations derived from a car-following theory suited to two-lane traffic flow.The conditions for securing the linear stability of the new model are presented.Numerical tests are carried out and some nonequilibrium phenomena are observed, such as small disturbance instability,stop-andgo waves,local clusters and phase transition.

  8. Engineering modeling of traffic noise in shielded areas in cities.

    Salomons, Erik M; Polinder, Henk; Lohman, Walter J A; Zhou, Han; Borst, Hieronymous C; Miedema, Henk M E


    A computational study of road traffic noise in cities is presented. Based on numerical boundary-element calculations of canyon-to-canyon propagation, an efficient engineering algorithm is developed to calculate the effect of multiple reflections in street canyons. The algorithm is supported by a room-acoustical analysis of the reverberant sound fields in the source and receiver canyons. Using the algorithm, a simple model for traffic noise in cities is developed. Noise maps and exposure distributions of the city of Amsterdam are calculated with the model, and for comparison also with an engineering model that is currently used for traffic noise impact assessments in cities. Considerable differences between the two model predictions are found for shielded buildings with day-evening-night levels of 40-60 dB at the facades. Further, an analysis is presented of level differences between the most and the least exposed facades of buildings. Large level differences are found for buildings directly exposed to traffic noise from nearby roads. It is shown that by a redistribution of traffic flow around these buildings, one can achieve low sound levels at quiet sides and a corresponding reduction in the percentage of highly annoyed inhabitants from typically 23% to 18%.

  9. Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

    Schaefer, Martin


    The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

  10. Modeling self-organizing traffic lights with elementary cellular automata

    Gershenson, Carlos


    There have been several highway traffic models proposed based on cellular automata. The simplest one is elementary cellular automaton rule 184. We extend this model to city traffic with cellular automata coupled at intersections using only rules 184, 252, and 136. The simplicity of the model offers a clear understanding of the main properties of city traffic and its phase transitions. We use the proposed model to compare two methods for coordinating traffic lights: a green-wave method that tries to optimize phases according to expected flows and a self-organizing method that adapts to the current traffic conditions. The self-organizing method delivers considerable improvements over the green-wave method. For low densities, the self-organizing method promotes the formation and coordination of platoons that flow freely in four directions, i.e. with a maximum velocity and no stops. For medium densities, the method allows a constant usage of the intersections, exploiting their maximum flux capacity. For high dens...

  11. Lattice models of traffic flow considering drivers' delay in response

    Zhu Hui-Bing


    This paper proposes two lattice traffic models by taking into account the drivers'delay in response.The lattice versions of the hydrodynamic model are described by the differential-difference equation and difference-difference equation.respectively.The stability conditions for the two models are obtained by using the linear stability theory.The modified KdV equation near the critical point is derived to describe the traffic jam by using the reductive perturbation method,and the kink-antikink soliton solutions related to the traffic density waves are obtained.The results show that the drivers'delay in sensing headway plays an important role in jamming transition.

  12. Modeling of speed distribution for mixed bicycle traffic flow

    Cheng Xu


    Full Text Available Speed is a fundamental measure of traffic performance for highway systems. There were lots of results for the speed characteristics of motorized vehicles. In this article, we studied the speed distribution for mixed bicycle traffic which was ignored in the past. Field speed data were collected from Hangzhou, China, under different survey sites, traffic conditions, and percentages of electric bicycle. The statistics results of field data show that the total mean speed of electric bicycles is 17.09 km/h, 3.63 km/h faster and 27.0% higher than that of regular bicycles. Normal, log-normal, gamma, and Weibull distribution models were used for testing speed data. The results of goodness-of-fit hypothesis tests imply that the log-normal and Weibull model can fit the field data very well. Then, the relationships between mean speed and electric bicycle proportions were proposed using linear regression models, and the mean speed for purely electric bicycles or regular bicycles can be obtained. The findings of this article will provide effective help for the safety and traffic management of mixed bicycle traffic.

  13. Edgeworth streaming model for redshift space distortions

    Uhlemann, Cora


    We derive the Edgeworth streaming model (ESM) for the redshift space correlation function starting from an arbitrary distribution function for biased tracers of dark matter by considering its two-point statistics and show that it reduces to the Gaussian streaming model (GSM) when neglecting non-Gaussianities. We test the accuracy of the GSM and ESM independent of perturbation theory using the Horizon Run 2 N-body halo catalog. While the monopole of the redshift space halo correlation function is well described by the GSM, higher multipoles improve upon including the leading order non-Gaussian correction in the ESM: the GSM quadrupole breaks down on scales below 30 Mpc/h whereas the ESM stays accurate to 2% within statistical errors down to 10 Mpc/h. To predict the scale dependent functions entering the streaming model we employ Convolution Lagrangian perturbation theory (CLPT) based on the dust model and local Lagrangian bias. Since dark matter halos carry an intrinsic length scale given by their Lagrangian r...


    A. V. Skrypnikov


    Full Text Available The complexity of the operation of the road caused by continuously varying from picket to picket road conditions caused by a variety of parameters projected (existing road , the variety of types of cars, their technical and economic parameters , a variety of climatic and weather conditions required to develop a complex simulation programs . This paper describes a set of programs that form the core of the subsystem "driver-vehicle-road environment". Optimization of the design solutions developed modules contribute WAY type and columns, not using indicators averaged transport - road performance, and detailed process model of functioning of the road. WAY module provides continuous sequence modeling perception of road elements mechanical subsystem "road-car " (by continuous formation and solution of the equations of motion and the characteristics of this mode. WAY module (with module PARK brings the technical contradiction between the 20-year term of road design and use of existing practices in their justification of design decisions technical parameters of cars today. The complexity of the operation of the road due to the random nature of traffic demanded inclusion in the computer -aided design of roads STREAM module. STREAM module allows to obtain simulation results of a random process, sufficient to optimize the design decisions in general and in the areas of local variation of the plan, longitudinal section, the way the situation, etc. Varie ty of road conditions possible to classify on the specifics of the formation of the flow regimes. This builds on the results of study of the process of movement of cars in the stream.

  15. Urban traffic noise assessment by combining measurement and model results

    Eerden, F.J.M. van der; Graafland, F.; Wessels, P.W.; Basten, T.G.H.


    A model based monitoring system is applied on a local scale in an urban area to obtain a better understanding of the traffic noise situation. The system consists of a scalable sensor network and an engineering model. A better understanding is needed to take appropriate and cost efficient measures,

  16. STREAM

    Godsk, Mikkel

    This paper presents a flexible model, ‘STREAM’, for transforming higher science education into blended and online learning. The model is inspired by ideas of active and collaborative learning and builds on feedback strategies well-known from Just-in-Time Teaching, Flipped Classroom, and Peer...... Instruction. The aim of the model is to provide both a concrete and comprehensible design toolkit for adopting and implementing educational technologies in higher science teaching practice and at the same time comply with diverse ambitions. As opposed to the above-mentioned feedback strategies, the STREAM...

  17. A mathematical model of traffic noise at a signalized intersection

    Sorawit Narupiti


    Full Text Available This research aims at modeling interrupted flow traffic noise at a signalized intersection. The models are mathematically derived by applying the inverse square law of sound pressure incorporating with theories of traffic flow at an intersection. The traffic flow theories utilized for developing the model consist of characteristics of individual vehicle motion at intersection, shock wave model, and queuing analysis. The modelformulation is divided into two different approaches and takes into account of all regimes of vehicle movement while traversing an intersection (i.e. idling, decelerating, accelerating, and cruising conditions. The first approach assumes a constant acceleration/deceleration rate for each type of vehicle. Another appliesinconstant acceleration/deceleration which comes from speed-distance relationship. The final models are expressed in LAeq (1 hr.Eventually, the developed models are validated by collecting equivalent continuous noise level in 1 min as well as traffic parameters (i.e. red time, number of vehicle in the queue, queue length, time of queue dissipation, and final cruise speed from fifteen vehicle platoons. The noise levels predicted from the developed models are compared with the measured ones. The results show that the inconstant acceleration model gives the predicted levels closer to the measured ones than constant acceleration model. The error of inconstant acceleration model ranges from 0.1-3.9 dB(A with the average value of 2 dB(A overestimated and that of constant acceleration model ranges from 1.8-6.5 dB(A with the average value of 3 dB(A underestimated. It might be concluded that movement characteristic of vehicle is an important factor that apparently affects the accuracy of traffic noise prediction at an intersection.

  18. Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration.

    Tavassoli Hojati, Ahmad; Ferreira, Luis; Washington, Simon; Charles, Phil


    Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

  19. Equilibrium Assignment Model with Uncertainties in Traffic Demands

    Aiwu Kuang


    Full Text Available In this study, we present an equilibrium traffic assignment model considering uncertainties in traffic demands. The link and route travel time distributions are derived based on the assumption that OD traffic demand follows a log-normal distribution. We postulate that travelers can acquire the variability of route travel times from past experiences and factor such variability into their route choice considerations in the form of mean route travel time. Furthermore, all travelers want to minimize their mean route travel times. We formulate the assignment problem as a variational inequality, which can be solved by a route-based heuristic solution algorithm. Some numerical studies on a small test road network are carried out to validate the proposed model and algorithm, at the same time, some reasonable results are obtained.

  20. Towards a macroscopic modeling of the complexity in traffic flow.

    Rosswog, Stephan; Wagner, Peter


    Based on the assumption of a safe velocity U(e)(rho) depending on the vehicle density rho, a macroscopic model for traffic flow is presented that extends the model of the Kühne-Kerner-Konhäuser by an interaction term containing the second derivative of U(e)(rho). We explore two qualitatively different forms of U(e): a conventional Fermi-type function and, motivated by recent experimental findings, a function that exhibits a plateau at intermediate densities, i.e., in this density regime the exact distance to the car ahead is only of minor importance. To solve the fluid-like equations a Lagrangian particle scheme is developed. The suggested model shows a much richer dynamical behavior than the usual fluid-like models. A large variety of encountered effects is known from traffic observations, many of which are usually assigned to the elusive state of "synchronized flow." Furthermore, the model displays alternating regimes of stability and instability at intermediate densities. It can explain data scatter in the fundamental diagram and complicated jam patterns. Within this model, a consistent interpretation of the emergence of very different traffic phenomena is offered: they are determined by the velocity relaxation time, i.e., the time needed to relax towards U(e)(rho). This relaxation time is a measure of the average acceleration capability and can be attributed to the composition (e.g., the percentage of trucks) of the traffic flow.

  1. A Sarsa(λ-Based Control Model for Real-Time Traffic Light Coordination

    Xiaoke Zhou


    Full Text Available Traffic problems often occur due to the traffic demands by the outnumbered vehicles on road. Maximizing traffic flow and minimizing the average waiting time are the goals of intelligent traffic control. Each junction wants to get larger traffic flow. During the course, junctions form a policy of coordination as well as constraints for adjacent junctions to maximize their own interests. A good traffic signal timing policy is helpful to solve the problem. However, as there are so many factors that can affect the traffic control model, it is difficult to find the optimal solution. The disability of traffic light controllers to learn from past experiences caused them to be unable to adaptively fit dynamic changes of traffic flow. Considering dynamic characteristics of the actual traffic environment, reinforcement learning algorithm based traffic control approach can be applied to get optimal scheduling policy. The proposed Sarsa(λ-based real-time traffic control optimization model can maintain the traffic signal timing policy more effectively. The Sarsa(λ-based model gains traffic cost of the vehicle, which considers delay time, the number of waiting vehicles, and the integrated saturation from its experiences to learn and determine the optimal actions. The experiment results show an inspiring improvement in traffic control, indicating the proposed model is capable of facilitating real-time dynamic traffic control.

  2. The Analysis of Braess’ Paradox and Robustness Based on Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models

    Bai-Bai Fu


    Full Text Available The investigation of the paradox and robustness about the traffic network is an important branch of the traffic assignment. In this paper, Braess’ paradox and robustness of the dynamic traffic network are analyzed by the dynamic traffic assignment models. In addition, the relationship of total costs with different traffic assignment models is discussed. The results show that the paradox only occurs in certain range; the robustness of the network and the relationship of total traffic costs are changed as the traffic demand changes, which provides theoretical guidance for the urban transportation planning.

  3. Cluster-size dependent randomization traffic flow model

    Gao Kun; Wang Bing-Hong; Fu Chuan-Ji; Lu Yu-Feng


    In order to exhibit the meta-stable states, several slow-to-start rules have been investigated as modification to Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model. These models can reproduce some realistic phenomena which are absent in the original NS model. But in these models, the size of cluster is still not considered as a useful parameter. In real traffic,the slow-to-start motion of a standing vehicle often depends on the degree of congestion which can be measured by the clusters'size. According to this idea, we propose a cluster-size dependent slow-to-start model based on the speeddependent slow-to-start rule (VDR) model. It gives expected results through simulations. Comparing with the VDR model, our new model has a better traffic efficiency and shows richer complex characters.

  4. Eco-Hydrological Modelling of Stream Valleys

    Johansen, Ole

    Predicting the effects of hydrological alterations on terrestrial stream valley ecosystems requires multidisciplinary approaches involving both engineers and ecologists. Groundwater discharge in stream valleys and other lowland areas support a number of species rich ecosystems, and their protection...... is prioritised worldwide. Protection requires improved knowledge on the functioning of these ecosystems and especially the linkages between vegetation, groundwater discharge and water level conditions are crucial for management applications. Groundwater abstraction affects catchment hydrology and thereby also...... groundwater discharge. Numerical hydrological modelling has been widely used for evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources and effects of abstraction, however, the importance of local scale heterogeneity becomes increasingly important in the assessment of local damage to these groundwater dependent...

  5. Efficient Processing of Continuous Skyline Query over Smarter Traffic Data Stream for Cloud Computing

    Wang Hanning


    Full Text Available The analyzing and processing of multisource real-time transportation data stream lay a foundation for the smart transportation's sensibility, interconnection, integration, and real-time decision making. Strong computing ability and valid mass data management mode provided by the cloud computing, is feasible for handling Skyline continuous query in the mass distributed uncertain transportation data stream. In this paper, we gave architecture of layered smart transportation about data processing, and we formalized the description about continuous query over smart transportation data Skyline. Besides, we proposed mMR-SUDS algorithm (Skyline query algorithm of uncertain transportation stream data based on micro-batchinMap Reduce based on sliding window division and architecture.

  6. MCMC simulation of GARCH model to forecast network traffic load

    Akhter Raza Syed


    Full Text Available The performance of a computer network can be enhanced by increasing number of servers, upgrading the hardware, and gaining additional bandwidth but this solution require the huge amount to invest. In contrast to increasing the bandwidth and hardware resources, network traffic modeling play a significant role in enhancing the network performance. As the emphasis of telecommunication service providers shifted towards the high-speed networks providing integrated services at a prescribed Quality of Service (QoS, the role of accurate traffic models in network design and network simulation becomes ever more crucial. We analyze a traffic volume time series of internet requests made to a workstation. This series exhibits a long-range dependence and self-similarity in large time scale and exhibits multifractal in small time scale. In this paper, for this time series, we proposed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic, (GARCH model, and practical techniques for model fitting, Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation and forecasting issues are demonstrated. The proposed model provides us simple and accurate approach for simulating internet data traffic patterns.

  7. Stability analysis of traffic flow with extended CACC control models

    Ya-Zhou, Zheng; Rong-Jun, Cheng; Siu-Ming, Lo; Hong-Xia, Ge


    To further investigate car-following behaviors in the cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) strategy, a comprehensive control system which can handle three traffic conditions to guarantee driving efficiency and safety is designed by using three CACC models. In this control system, some vital comprehensive information, such as multiple preceding cars’ speed differences and headway, variable safety distance (VSD) and time-delay effect on the traffic current and the jamming transition have been investigated via analytical or numerical methods. Local and string stability criterion for the velocity control (VC) model and gap control (GC) model are derived via linear stability theory. Numerical simulations are conducted to study the performance of the simulated traffic flow. The simulation results show that the VC model and GC model can improve driving efficiency and suppress traffic congestion. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71571107 and 11302110). The Scientific Research Fund of Zhejiang Province, China (Grant Nos. LY15A020007, LY15E080013, and LY16G010003). The Natural Science Foundation of Ningbo City (Grant Nos. 2014A610030 and 2015A610299), the Fund from the Government of the Hong Kong Administrative Region, China (Grant No. CityU11209614), and the K C Wong Magna Fund in Ningbo University, China.

  8. Traffic crash liability determination: Danger and Dodge model.

    Xu, Sikui; Huang, Helai


    By proposing a systematic set of rules for traffic crash liability determination, this paper attempts to prove the feasibility and practicability of legal liability in handling traffic crashes. Two sequential elements are identified for crash occurrence, i.e., the occurrence of a dangerous situation and failure in dodging the dangerous situation. A Danger and Dodge model is subsequently established for liability determination in a traffic crash. By investigating the basic mechanism of a crash occurrence, the specific contents of causalties and the effect of the parties' acts in traffic crashes are specified. Based on the theories of social adequancy, the principle of reliance and the duty of care, the study further proposes to use the "peril" of a dangerous situation and the "possibility" of dodging the dangerous situation to appraise the effect of the parties' acts upon a crash occurrence, with the rule of the "pattern deciding effect". The proposed approach would be very helpful to the concreteness of the determination of liability in a traffic crash. Two case studies are presented for demonstration.

  9. Traffic Congestion Evaluation and Signal Control Optimization Based on Wireless Sensor Networks: Model and Algorithms

    Wei Zhang


    Full Text Available This paper presents the model and algorithms for traffic flow data monitoring and optimal traffic light control based on wireless sensor networks. Given the scenario that sensor nodes are sparsely deployed along the segments between signalized intersections, an analytical model is built using continuum traffic equation and develops the method to estimate traffic parameter with the scattered sensor data. Based on the traffic data and principle of traffic congestion formation, we introduce the congestion factor which can be used to evaluate the real-time traffic congestion status along the segment and to predict the subcritical state of traffic jams. The result is expected to support the timing phase optimization of traffic light control for the purpose of avoiding traffic congestion before its formation. We simulate the traffic monitoring based on the Mobile Century dataset and analyze the performance of traffic light control on VISSIM platform when congestion factor is introduced into the signal timing optimization model. The simulation result shows that this method can improve the spatial-temporal resolution of traffic data monitoring and evaluate traffic congestion status with high precision. It is helpful to remarkably alleviate urban traffic congestion and decrease the average traffic delays and maximum queue length.

  10. Traffic Accident, System Model and Cluster Analysis in GIS

    Veronika Vlčková


    Full Text Available One of the many often frequented topics as normal journalism, so the professional public, is the problem of traffic accidents. This article illustrates the orientation of considerations to a less known context of accidents, with the help of constructive systems theory and its methods, cluster analysis and geoinformation engineering. Traffic accident is reframing the space-time, and therefore it can be to study with tools of technology of geographic information systems. The application of system approach enabling the formulation of the system model, grabbed by tools of geoinformation engineering and multicriterial and cluster analysis.

  11. Model and algorithm of optimizing alternate traffic restriction scheme in urban traffic network

    徐光明; 史峰; 刘冰; 黄合来


    An optimization model and its solution algorithm for alternate traffic restriction (ATR) schemes were introduced in terms of both the restriction districts and the proportion of restricted automobiles. A bi-level programming model was proposed to model the ATR scheme optimization problem by aiming at consumer surplus maximization and overload flow minimization at the upper-level model. At the lower-level model, elastic demand, mode choice and multi-class user equilibrium assignment were synthetically optimized. A genetic algorithm involving prolonging codes was constructed, demonstrating high computing efficiency in that it dynamically includes newly-appearing overload links in the codes so as to reduce the subsequent searching range. Moreover, practical processing approaches were suggested, which may improve the operability of the model-based solutions.

  12. Wide-area traffic: The failure of Poisson modeling

    Paxson, V.; Floyd, S.


    Network arrivals are often modeled as Poisson processes for analytic simplicity, even though a number of traffic studies have shown that packet interarrivals are not exponentially distributed. The authors evaluate 21 wide-area traces, investigating a number of wide-area TCP arrival processes (session and connection arrivals, FTPDATA connection arrivals within FTP sessions, and TELNET packet arrivals) to determine the error introduced by modeling them using Poisson processes. The authors find that user-initiated TCP session arrivals, such as remote-login and file-transfer, are well-modeled as Poisson processes with fixed hourly rates, but that other connection arrivals deviate considerably from Poisson; that modeling TELNET packet interarrivals as exponential grievously underestimates the burstiness of TELNET traffic, but using the empirical Tcplib[DJCME92] interarrivals preserves burstiness over many time scales; and that FTPDATA connection arrivals within FTP sessions come bunched into ``connection bursts``, the largest of which are so large that they completely dominate FTPDATA traffic. Finally, they offer some preliminary results regarding how the findings relate to the possible self-similarity of wide-area traffic.

  13. International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) Integrated Traffic Model

    Gates, R. E.


    The paper discusses the development process of the International Space Station Alpha (ISSA) Integrated Traffic Model which is a subsystem analyses tool utilized in the ISSA design analysis cycles. Fast-track prototyping of the detailed relationships between daily crew and station consumables, propellant needs, maintenance requirements and crew rotation via spread sheets provide adequate benchmarks to assess cargo vehicle design and performance characteristics.

  14. Exact results for car accidents in a traffic model

    Huang, Ding-wei


    Within the framework of a recent model for car accidents on single-lane highway traffic, we study analytically the probability of the occurrence of car accidents. Exact results are obtained. Various scaling behaviours are observed. The linear dependence of the occurrence of car accidents on density is understood as the dominance of a single velocity in the distribution.

  15. Heterogeneous traffic flow modelling using second-order macroscopic continuum model

    Mohan, Ranju; Ramadurai, Gitakrishnan


    Modelling heterogeneous traffic flow lacking in lane discipline is one of the emerging research areas in the past few years. The two main challenges in modelling are: capturing the effect of varying size of vehicles, and the lack in lane discipline, both of which together lead to the 'gap filling' behaviour of vehicles. The same section length of the road can be occupied by different types of vehicles at the same time, and the conventional measure of traffic concentration, density (vehicles per lane per unit length), is not a good measure for heterogeneous traffic modelling. First aim of this paper is to have a parsimonious model of heterogeneous traffic that can capture the unique phenomena of gap filling. Second aim is to emphasize the suitability of higher-order models for modelling heterogeneous traffic. Third, the paper aims to suggest area occupancy as concentration measure of heterogeneous traffic lacking in lane discipline. The above mentioned two main challenges of heterogeneous traffic flow are addressed by extending an existing second-order continuum model of traffic flow, using area occupancy for traffic concentration instead of density. The extended model is calibrated and validated with field data from an arterial road in Chennai city, and the results are compared with those from few existing generalized multi-class models.

  16. Modeling and clustering users with evolving profiles in usage streams

    Zhang, Chongsheng


    Today, there is an increasing need of data stream mining technology to discover important patterns on the fly. Existing data stream models and algorithms commonly assume that users\\' records or profiles in data streams will not be updated or revised once they arrive. Nevertheless, in various applications such asWeb usage, the records/profiles of the users can evolve along time. This kind of streaming data evolves in two forms, the streaming of tuples or transactions as in the case of traditional data streams, and more importantly, the evolving of user records/profiles inside the streams. Such data streams bring difficulties on modeling and clustering for exploring users\\' behaviors. In this paper, we propose three models to summarize this kind of data streams, which are the batch model, the Evolving Objects (EO) model and the Dynamic Data Stream (DDS) model. Through creating, updating and deleting user profiles, these models summarize the behaviors of each user as a profile object. Based upon these models, clustering algorithms are employed to discover interesting user groups from the profile objects. We have evaluated all the proposed models on a large real-world data set, showing that the DDS model summarizes the data streams with evolving tuples more efficiently and effectively, and provides better basis for clustering users than the other two models. © 2012 IEEE.

  17. The on-off network traffic model under intermediate scaling

    Dombry, Clément


    The result provided in this paper helps complete a unified picture of the scaling behavior in heavy-tailed stochastic models for transmission of packet traffic on high-speed communication links. Popular models include infinite source Poisson models, models based on aggregated renewal sequences, and models built from aggregated on-off sources. The versions of these models with finite variance transmission rate share the following pattern: if the sources connect at a fast rate over time the cumulative statistical fluctuations are fractional Brownian motion, if the connection rate is slow the traffic fluctuations are described by a stable L\\'evy process, while the limiting fluctuations for the intermediate scaling regime are given by fractional Poisson motion.

  18. A rigorous treatment of a follow-the-leader traffic model with traffic lights present

    Argall, Brenna; Cheleshkin, Eugene; Greenberg, J.M.; Hinde, Colin; Lin, Pei-Jen


    Traffic flow on a unidirectional roadway in the presence of traffic lights is modeled. Individual car responses to green, yellow, and red lights are postulated and these result in rules governing the acceleration and deceleration of individual cars. The essence of the model is that only specific cars are directly affected by the lights. The other cars behave according to simple follow-the-leader rules which limit their speed by the spacing between it and the car directly ahead. The model has a number of desirable properties; namely cars do not run red lights, cars do not smash into one another, and cars exhibit no velocity reversals. In a situation with multiple lights operating in-phase we get, after an initial startup period, a constant number of cars through each light during any green-yellow period. Moreover, this flux is less by one or two cars per period than the flux obtained in discretized versions of the idealized Lighthill, Whitham, Richards model which allows for infinite accelerations.

  19. A Modified Cellular Automaton Model for Traffic Flow

    葛红霞; 董力耘; 雷丽; 戴世强


    A modified cellular automaton model for traffic flow was proposed. A novel concept about the changeable security gap was introduced and a parameter related to the variable security gap was determined. The fundamental diagram obtained by simulation shows that the maximum flow more approaches to the observed data than that of the NaSch model, indicating that the presented model is more reasonable and realistic.

  20. Modelling the Magnetic Disturbances Due to Road-Traffic

    J -J Schott


    Full Text Available Magnetic disturbances due to the traffic are tentatively modelled assuming that the sources are moving dipoles. The influencing section of the road ("useful" portion should be modelled in 3D. The parameters of the model (time of closest position to the magnetometer, velocity, including its sign, dipole moment are fairly accurately estimated. The fit is improved with the incorporation of a small induction effect.

  1. The influence of bus stop on traffic flow with velocity-difference-separation model

    Zheng, Pengjun; Wang, Wei; Ge, Hongxia


    Based on velocity-difference-separation model, the mixed traffic flow on two-lane road is investigated. For a fixed road length, the influence of bus and bus stops on traffic flow is studied with the increasing traffic density. Compared with the result without bus stops given by Li et al., a new traffic state is found, which is valuable for studying the impacts of public transport on urban traffic flow.

  2. Modeling the Effect of Traffic Calming on Local Animal Population Persistence

    Frank van Langevelde


    Full Text Available A steady growth in traffic volumes in industrialized countries with dense human populations is expected, especially on minor roads. As a consequence, the fragmentation of wildlife populations will increase dramatically. In human-dominated landscapes, typically minor roads occur in high densities, and animals encounter them frequently. Traffic calming is a new approach to mitigate negative impacts by reducing traffic volumes and speeds on minor roads at a regional scale. This leads to a distinction between roads with low volumes as being part of the traffic-calmed area, whereas roads with bundled traffic are located around this area. Within the traffic-calmed area, volumes and speeds can be decreased substantially; this is predicted to decrease the disturbance and mortality risk for animals. Thus far, data on the effects of traffic calming on wildlife population persistence remain scarce. Using metapopulation theory, we derived a model to estimate thresholds in the size of traffic-calmed areas and traffic volumes that may allow persistent populations. Our model suggests that traffic calming largely increases the persistence of roe deer in a landscape with a dense road network. Our modeling results show trade-offs between traffic volume on roads within the traffic-calmed area and both the area of habitat available for this species in the traffic-calmed area and the size of the traffic-calmed area. These results suggest ways to mitigate the fragmentation of wildlife habitat by road networks and their expected traffic volumes.

  3. Discrete Choice Models - Estimation of Passenger Traffic

    Sørensen, Majken Vildrik


    ), which simultaneously finds optimal coefficients values (utility elements) and parameter values (distributed terms) in the utility function. The shape of the distributed terms is specified prior to the estimation; hence, the validity is not tested during the estimation. The proposed method, assesses...... for data, a literature review follows. Models applied for estimation of discrete choice models are described by properties and limitations, and relations between these are established. Model types are grouped into three classes, Hybrid choice models, Tree models and Latent class models. Relations between...... the shape of the distribution from data, by means of repetitive model estimation. In particular, one model was estimated for each sub-sample of data. The shape of distributions is assessed from between model comparisons. This is not to be regarded as an alternative to MSL estimation, rather...

  4. A modified weighted probabilistic cellular automaton traffic flow model

    Zhuang Qian; Jia Bin; Li Xin-Gang


    This paper modifies the weighted probabilistic cellular automaton model (Li X L,Kuang H,Song T,et al 2008Chin.Phys.B 17 2366) which considered a diversity of traffic behaviors under real traffic situations induced by various driving characters and habits.In the new model,the effects of the velocity at the last time step and drivers' desire for acceleration are taken into account.The fundamental diagram,spatial-temporal diagram,and the time series of one-minute data axe analyzed.The results show that this model reproduces synchronized flow.Finally,it simulates the on-ramp system with the proposed model.Some characteristics including the phase diagram are studied.

  5. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran;

    , climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  6. A modified two-lane traffic model considering drivers' personality

    Zhu, H. B.; Zhang, N. X.; Wu, W. J.


    Based on the two-lane traffic model proposed by Chowdhury et al., a modified traffic model (R-STCA model, for short) is presented, in which the new symmetric lane changing rules are introduced by considering driving behavioral difference and dynamic headway. After the numerical simulation, a broad scattering of simulated points is exhibited in the moderate density region on the flow-density plane. The synchronized flow phase accompanied with the wide moving jam phase is reproduced. The spatial-temporal profiles indicate that the vehicles move according to the R-STCA model can change lane more easily and more realistically. Then vehicles are convenient to get rid of the slow vehicles that turn into plugs ahead, and hence the capacity increases. Furthermore the phenomenon of the high speed car-following is discovered by using the R-STCA model, which has been already observed in the traffic measured data. All these results indicate that the presented model is reasonable and more realistic.

  7. Internet Traffic Modeling and Prediction Using FARIMA Models%基于FARIMA模型的Internet网络业务预报

    舒炎泰; Yang,O; 等


    FARIMA(p,d,q) model is a good traffic model capable of capturingboth the long-range and short-range behavior of a network traffic stream in time. In this paper, we provide procedures to model, generate, and predict traffic using FARIMA(p,d,q) model. We suggest a method to simplify the FARIMA model fitting procedure and hence to reduce the time of traffic modeling and prediction. We propose a fitting method to fit a FARIMA model to the actual traffic trace. In essence, this method has the feature of transferring the FARIMA problem into an ARMA problem so that any algorithm (not necessarily related to the method used for fitting the ARMA model) could be used to determine the Hurst parameter. Our method first determines the Hurst parameter (differencing level d) before fitting ARMA model, thus reducing the number of plausible models to be examined and the time to identify model iteratively. Consequently, one can reduce the time to build traffic models and to do real-time modeling. We use the techniques of fractal de-filter (fractional differencing), auxiliary AR model-based backward-prediction, and a combination of rough and accurate parameter estimation in our guidelines to simplify and hence to reduce the time of the model fitting procedure. The accuracy of the method is tested by comparing autocorrelation functions of the original data with those of simulation from the fitted model. We propose an adjusted traffic prediction method using FARIMA models and do many prediction experiments on the actually measured Internet traces. Unlike the previous comments on the complexity of the FARIMA models, we show that FARIMA models could be used for traffic modeling and prediction. Our feasibility-study experiments showed that FARIMA models with less parameters could be used to model and predict actual traffic on quite a large time scale. Our experiments also illustrated that h-step forecasts based on FARIMA model are better than those based on AR model.%最近的网络研究

  8. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R


    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Analysis of kinematic waves arising in diverging traffic flow models

    Jin, Wen-Long


    Diverging junctions are important network bottlenecks, and a better understanding of diverging traffic dynamics has both theoretical and practical implications. In this paper, we first introduce a continuous multi-commodity kinematic wave model of diverging traffic and then present a new framework for constructing kinematic wave solutions to its Riemann problem with jump initial conditions. In supply-demand space, the solutions on a link consist of an interior state and a stationary state, subject to admissible conditions such that there are no positive and negative kinematic waves on the upstream and downstream links respectively. In addition, the solutions have to satisfy entropy conditions consistent with various discrete diverge models. In the proposed analytical framework, kinematic waves on each link can be uniquely determined by the stationary and initial conditions, and we prove that the stationary states and boundary fluxes exist and are unique for the Riemann problem of diverge models when all or pa...

  10. A Multiclass, Multimodal Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model with Departure Time

    Meng Meng


    Full Text Available The paper develops a multiclass, multimodal dynamic traffic equilibrium model with consideration of the departure time choice problem. Travelers choose the departure time and the route simultaneously with a Logit-based structure. The route travel cost is a summation of travel time and schedule delay which is associated with arrival time at destination. In addition, the travelers are classified into three groups according to their value of time. A variational inequality (VI formulation is proposed based on the equilibrium conditions. Two examples are given to testify the effectiveness of the model and the solution algorithm. The model can give the optimal travel route as well as the best departure time, which would contribute to traffic control and dynamic route guidance.

  11. Weighted Networks Model Based on Traffic Dynamics with Local Perturbation


    In the study of weighted complex networks, the interplay between traffic and topology have been paid much attention. However, the variation of topology and weight brought by new added vertices or edges should also be considered. In this paper, an evolution model of weighted networks driven by traffic dynamics with local perturbation is proposed. The model gives power-law distribution of degree, weight and strength, as confirmed by empirical measurements. By choosing appropriate parameters W and δ, the exponents of various power law distributions can be adjusted to meet real world networks. Nontrivial clustering coefficient C, degree assortativity coefficient r, and strength-degree correlation are also considered. What should be emphasized is that, with the consideration of local perturbation, one can adjust the exponent of strength-degree correlation more effectively. It makes our model more general than previous ones and may help reproducing real world networks more appropriately.

  12. Cellular Automation Model of Traffic Flow Based on the Car-Following Model

    LI Ke-Ping; GAO Zi-You


    @@ We propose a new cellular automation (CA) traffic model that is based on the car-following model. A class of driving strategies is used in the car-following model instead of the acceleration in the NaSch traffic model. In our model, some realistic driver behaviour and detailed vehicle characteristics have been taken into account, such as distance-headway and safe distance, etc. The simulation results show that our model can exhibit some traffic flow states that have been observed in the real traffic, and both of the maximum flux and the critical density are very close to the real measurement. Moreover, it is easy to extend our method to multi-lane traffic.

  13. A refined and dynamic cellular automaton model for pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic flow

    Liu, Mianfang; Xiong, Shengwu


    Mixed traffic flow sharing the “same lane” and having no discipline on road is a common phenomenon in the developing countries. For example, motorized vehicles (m-vehicles) and nonmotorized vehicles (nm-vehicles) may share the m-vehicle lane or nm-vehicle lane and pedestrians may share the nm-vehicle lane. Simulating pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic flow consisting of three kinds of traffic objects: m-vehicles, nm-vehicles and pedestrians, can be a challenge because there are some erratic drivers or pedestrians who fail to follow the lane disciplines. In the paper, we investigate various moving and interactive behavior associated with mixed traffic flow, such as lateral drift including illegal lane-changing and transverse crossing different lanes, overtaking and forward movement, and propose some new moving and interactive rules for pedestrian-vehicle mixed traffic flow based on a refined and dynamic cellular automaton (CA) model. Simulation results indicate that the proposed model can be used to investigate the traffic flow characteristic in a mixed traffic flow system and corresponding complicated traffic problems, such as, the moving characteristics of different traffic objects, interaction phenomenon between different traffic objects, traffic jam, traffic conflict, etc., which are consistent with the actual mixed traffic system. Therefore, the proposed model provides a solid foundation for the management, planning and evacuation of the mixed traffic flow.

  14. Synchronization Transition and Traffic Congestion in One-Dimensional Traffic Model

    Zhi Xin


    Full Text Available A nonlinear car-following model with driver’s reaction time is studied from the synchronization transition viewpoint. We investigate the traffic congestion from the view of chaos system synchronization transition. Our result shows that the uniform flow corresponds to the complete synchronization and the stop-and-go congested state corresponds to the lag synchronization of the vehicles. An analytical criterion for synchronization manifolds stability is obtained; the analytical result and the numerical result are consistent. The synchronization transition is also trigged by the driver’s reaction time. We analyze the car-following model by the use of the nonlinear analysis method and derive the modified KdV equation describing the kink density wave.

  15. An optimization model for the US Air-Traffic System

    Mulvey, J. M.


    A systematic approach for monitoring U.S. air traffic was developed in the context of system-wide planning and control. Towards this end, a network optimization model with nonlinear objectives was chosen as the central element in the planning/control system. The network representation was selected because: (1) it provides a comprehensive structure for depicting essential aspects of the air traffic system, (2) it can be solved efficiently for large scale problems, and (3) the design can be easily communicated to non-technical users through computer graphics. Briefly, the network planning models consider the flow of traffic through a graph as the basic structure. Nodes depict locations and time periods for either individual planes or for aggregated groups of airplanes. Arcs define variables as actual airplanes flying through space or as delays across time periods. As such, a special case of the network can be used to model the so called flow control problem. Due to the large number of interacting variables and the difficulty in subdividing the problem into relatively independent subproblems, an integrated model was designed which will depict the entire high level (above 29000 feet) jet route system for the 48 contiguous states in the U.S. As a first step in demonstrating the concept's feasibility a nonlinear risk/cost model was developed for the Indianapolis Airspace. The nonlinear network program --NLPNETG-- was employed in solving the resulting test cases. This optimization program uses the Truncated-Newton method (quadratic approximation) for determining the search direction at each iteration in the nonlinear algorithm. It was shown that aircraft could be re-routed in an optimal fashion whenever traffic congestion increased beyond an acceptable level, as measured by the nonlinear risk function.

  16. Performance of a distributed DCA algorithm under inhomogeneous traffic modelled from an operational GSM network

    Kennedy, K.D.; Vries, E.T. de; Koorevaar, P.


    This paper presents results obtained from two different Dynamic Channel Allocation (DCA) algorithms, namely the Timid and Persistent Polite Aggressive (PPA) algorithms, simulated under both static homogeneous and dynamic inhomogeneous traffic. The dynamic inhomogeneous traffic is modelled upon real

  17. Phase Transitions in Two-Dimensional Traffic Flow Models

    Cuesta, J A; Molera, J M; Cuesta, José A; Martinez, Froilán C; Molera, Juan M


    Abstract: We introduce two simple two-dimensional lattice models to study traffic flow in cities. We have found that a few basic elements give rise to the characteristic phase diagram of a first-order phase transition from a freely moving phase to a jammed state, with a critical point. The jammed phase presents new transitions corresponding to structural transformations of the jam. We discuss their relevance in the infinite size limit.

  18. Phase Transitions in Two-Dimensional Traffic Flow Models

    Cuesta, José A; Molera, Juan M; Escuela, Angel Sánchez; 10.1103/PhysRevE.48.R4175


    We introduce two simple two-dimensional lattice models to study traffic flow in cities. We have found that a few basic elements give rise to the characteristic phase diagram of a first-order phase transition from a freely moving phase to a jammed state, with a critical point. The jammed phase presents new transitions corresponding to structural transformations of the jam. We discuss their relevance in the infinite size limit.

  19. Derivation, calibration and verification of macroscopic model for urban traffic flow. Part 1

    Kholodov, Yaroslav A; Kholodov, Aleksandr S; Vasiliev, Mikhail O; Kurzhanskiy, Alexander A


    In this paper we present a second-order hydrodynamic traffic model that generalizes the existing second-order models of Payne-Whithem, Zhang and Aw-Rascle. In the proposed model, we introduce the pressure equation describing the dependence of "traffic pressure" on traffic density. The pressure equation is constructed for each road segment from the fundamental diagram that is estimated using measurements from traffic detectors. We show that properties of any phenomenological model are fully defined by the pressure equation. We verify the proposed model through simulations of the Interstate 580 freeway segment in California, USA, with traffic measurements from the Performance Measurement System (PeMS).

  20. A Control Method for Congested Traffic in the Car-Following Model

    Ge, Hong-Xia; Yu, Jian; Lo, Siu-Ming


    A simple control method to suppress traffic congestion is proposed for the car-following model. The stability conditions are derived by using the control method, and the feedback signals, which act on our traffic system, are extended to the car-following model. The control signals will play an effect only if the traffic is congested. The corresponding numerical simulation results agree well with our theoretical analysis, and our control method can successfully suppress traffic jams.

  1. Parameter estimation for stochastic hybrid model applied to urban traffic flow estimation


    This study proposes a novel data-based approach for estimating the parameters of a stochastic hybrid model describing the traffic flow in an urban traffic network with signalized intersections. The model represents the evolution of the traffic flow rate, measuring the number of vehicles passing a given location per time unit. This traffic flow rate is described using a mode-dependent first-order autoregressive (AR) stochastic process. The parameters of the AR process take different values dep...

  2. Modelling of road traffic for traffic flow optimization of modern regional center as an example of Odessa

    S.V. Myronenko


    Full Text Available At present sharply there is a problem of traffic management especially in big cities. The increase in the number of vehicles, both personal and public, led to congestion of city roads, many hours of traffic jams, difficulty of movement of pedestrians, increase the number of accidents, etc. Aim: The aim of the study is to evaluate the possibility of using simulation models to solve problems of analysis and optimization of traffic flows. To achieve this goal in a simulation environment the data base of the transport network will be developed. Materials and Methods: The problem of analysis and optimization of traffic flow is considered by the example of the city of Odessa (Ukraine, the results and recommendations can be easily adapted for other cities of Ukraine, and for the cities of most countries of the former socialist bloc. Features of transport systems make it impossible to build an adequate analytical model to explore options for the management of the system and its characteristic in different conditions. At the same time simulation modelling as a method to study such objects is a promising for the solution to this problem. As a simulation environment an OmniTRANS package as a universal tool for modeling of discrete, continuous and hybrid systems. Results: With OmniTRANS programs the model of traffic in Odessa was derived and the intensity of the traffic flow. B first approximation the transport network of the central district of the city was considered and built; without calibration and simulation it was developed a database of elements of the transport network and shown how it can be used to solve problems of analysis and optimization of traffic flows. Models constructed from elements of created database, allows you to change the level of detail of the simulated objects and phenomena, thereby obtaining models as macro and micro level.

  3. Modeling highway-traffic headway distributions using superstatistics.

    Abul-Magd, A Y


    We study traffic clearance distributions (i.e., the instantaneous gap between successive vehicles) and time-headway distributions by applying the Beck and Cohen superstatistics. We model the transition from free phase to congested phase with the increase of vehicle density as a transition from the Poisson statistics to that of the random-matrix theory. We derive an analytic expression for the spacing distributions that interpolates from the Poisson distribution and Wigner's surmise and apply it to the distributions of the net distance and time gaps among the succeeding cars at different densities of traffic flow. The obtained distribution fits the experimental results for single-vehicle data of the Dutch freeway A9 and the German freeway A5.

  4. Modeling the effect of microscopic driving behaviors on Kerner's time-delayed traffic breakdown at traffic signal using cellular automata

    Wang, Yang; Chen, Yan-Yan


    The signalized traffic is considerably complex due to the fact that various driving behaviors have emerged to respond to traffic signals. However, the existing cellular automaton models take the signal-vehicle interactions into account inadequately, resulting in a potential risk that vehicular traffic flow dynamics may not be completely explored. To remedy this defect, this paper proposes a more realistic cellular automaton model by incorporating a number of the driving behaviors typically observed when the vehicles are approaching a traffic light. In particular, the anticipatory behavior proposed in this paper is realized with a perception factor designed by considering the vehicle speed implicitly and the gap to its preceding vehicle explicitly. Numerical simulations have been performed based on a signal controlled road which is partitioned into three sections according to the different reactions of drivers. The effects of microscopic driving behaviors on Kerner's time-delayed traffic breakdown at signal (Kerner 2011, 2013) have been investigated with the assistance of spatiotemporal pattern and trajectory analysis. Furthermore, the contributions of the driving behaviors on the traffic breakdown have been statistically examined. Finally, with the activation of the anticipatory behavior, the influences of the other driving behaviors on the formation of platoon have been investigated in terms of the number of platoons, the averaged platoon size, and the averaged flow rate.

  5. Modeling the Gulf Stream System: How Far from Reality?

    Choa, Yi; Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Bryan, Frank O.; Holland, William R.


    Analyses of a primitive equation ocean model simulation of the Atlantic Ocean circulation at 1/6 deg horizontal resolution are presented with a focus on the Gulf Stream region. Among many successful features of this simulation, this letter describes the Gulf Stream separation from the coast of North America near Cape Hatteras, meandering of the Gulf Stream between Cape Hatteras and the Grand Banks, and the vertical structure of temperature and velocity associated with the Gulf Stream. These results demonstrate significant improvement in modeling the Gulf Stream system using basin- to global scale ocean general circulation models. Possible reasons responsible for the realistic Gulf Stream simulation are discussed, contrasting the major differences between the present model configuration and those of previous eddy resolving studies.


    Yao Yuanyuan; Lu Yanhui; Yang Shouyi


    Call Admission Control (CAC) is one of the key traffic management mechanisms that must be deployed in order to meet the strict requirements for dependability imposed on the services provided by modern wireless networks.In this paper,we develop an executable top-down hierarchical Colored Petri Net (CPN) model for multi-traffic CAC in Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDMA) system.By theoretic analysis and CPN simulation,it is demonstrated that the CPN model is isomorphic to Markov Chain (MC) assuming that each data stream follows Poisson distribution and the corresponding arrival time interval is an exponential random variable,and it breaks through MC's explicit limitation,which includes MC's memoryless property and proneness to state space explosion in evaluating CAC process.Moreover,we present four CAC schemes based on CPN model taking into account call-level and packet-level Quality of Service (QoS).The simulation results show that CPN offers significant advantages over MC in modeling CAC strategies and evaluating their performance with less computational complexity in addition to its flexibility and adaptability to different scenarios.

  7. An extended macro traffic flow model accounting for multiple optimal velocity functions with different probabilities

    Cheng, Rongjun; Ge, Hongxia; Wang, Jufeng


    Due to the maximum velocity and safe headway distance of the different vehicles are not exactly the same, an extended macro model of traffic flow with the consideration of multiple optimal velocity functions with probabilities is proposed in this paper. By means of linear stability theory, the new model's linear stability condition considering multiple probabilities optimal velocity is obtained. The KdV-Burgers equation is derived to describe the propagating behavior of traffic density wave near the neutral stability line through nonlinear analysis. The numerical simulations of influences of multiple maximum velocities and multiple safety distances on model's stability and traffic capacity are carried out. The cases of two different kinds of maximum speeds with same safe headway distance, two different types of safe headway distances with same maximum speed and two different max velocities and two different time-gaps are all explored by numerical simulations. First cases demonstrate that when the proportion of vehicles with a larger vmax increase, the traffic tends to unstable, which also means that jerk and brakes is not conducive to traffic stability and easier to result in stop and go phenomenon. Second cases show that when the proportion of vehicles with greater safety spacing increases, the traffic tends to be unstable, which also means that too cautious assumptions or weak driving skill is not conducive to traffic stability. Last cases indicate that increase of maximum speed is not conducive to traffic stability, while reduction of the safe headway distance is conducive to traffic stability. Numerical simulation manifests that the mixed driving and traffic diversion does not have effect on the traffic capacity when traffic density is low or heavy. Numerical results also show that mixed driving should be chosen to increase the traffic capacity when the traffic density is lower, while the traffic diversion should be chosen to increase the traffic capacity when

  8. Fundamental Thermodynamic Model for Analysis of Stream Temperature Data

    Davis, L.; Reiter, M.; Groom, J.; Dent, L.


    Stream temperature is a critical aquatic ecosystem parameter and has been extensively studied for many years. Complex models have been built as a way to understand stream temperature dynamics and estimate the magnitude of anthropogenic influences on temperature. These models have proven very useful in estimating the relative contribution of various thermal energy sources to the stream heat budget and how management can alter the heat budget. However, the large number of measured or estimated input parameters required by such models makes their application to the analysis of specific stream temperature data difficult when the necessary input data is not readily available. To gain insight into the physical processes governing stream temperature behavior in forested streams we analyzed data based on fundamental thermodynamic concepts. The dataset we used is from a recent multi-year study on the effects of timber harvest on stream temperature in the Oregon Coast Range. From the hourly temperature data we extracted time-averaged diurnal heating and cooling rates. Examining the data in this context allowed us to qualitatively assess changes in the relative magnitude of stream temperature (T), stream equilibrium temperature (Teq), and effective heat transfer coefficient (h) across years and treatments. A benefit of analyzing the data in this way is that it separates the influence of timber harvest on stream temperature from that of climate variation. To categorize longitudinal temperature behaviors before and after timber harvest we developed a data-event matrix which specifies qualitative constraints (i.e., what is physically possible for T, Teq and h) for a given set of observed stream temperature responses. We then analyzed data from 18 different streams to categorize the temperature response to management. Understanding stream temperature dynamics using fundamental thermodynamic concepts provides insight into the processes governing stream temperature and the pathways

  9. Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

    Yang beibei Ji


    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

  10. Traffic Analysis Zones - TRAFFIC_COUNTS_INDOTMODEL_IN: Traffic Counts on Roadways (from INDOT Statewide Travel Demand MODEL version 4, ISTDM4) in Indiana (Indiana Department of Transportation, Line Shapefile)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — TRAFFIC_COUNTS_INDOTMODEL_IN is a line shapefile that shows traffic counts (factored to year 2000) for the roadways in the Indiana Statewide Travel Demand Model,...

  11. Modeling the Evolution of Incised Streams: III. Model Application

    Incision and ensuing widening of alluvial stream channels is widespread in the midsouth and midwestern United States and represents an important form of channel adjustment. Two accompanying papers have presented a robust computational model for simulating the long-term evolution of incised and resto...


    YIN Gang; ZHANG Hanqin


    A fluid buffer model with Markov modulated input-output rates is considered.When traffic intensity is near its critical value, the system is known as in heavy traffic.It is shown that a suitably scaled sequence of the equilibrium buffer contents has a weakor distributional limit under heavy traffic conditionsThis weak limit is a functional of adiffusion process determined by the Markov chain modulating the input and output rates.The first passage time of the reflected process is examinedIt is shown that the mean firstpassage time can be obtained via a solution of a Dirichlet problemThen the transitiondensity of the reflected process is derived by solving the Kolmogorov forward equation witha Neumann boundary conditionFurthermore, when the fast changing part of the generatorof the Markov chain is a constant matrix, the representation of the probability distributionof the reflected process is derivedUpper and lower bounds of the probability distributionare also obtained by means of asymptotic expansions of standard normal distribution.

  13. Summer stream water temperature models for Great Lakes streams: New York

    Murphy, Marilyn K.; McKenna, James E.; Butryn, Ryan S.; McDonald, Richard P.


    Temperature is one of the most important environmental influences on aquatic organisms. It is a primary driver of physiological rates and many abiotic processes. However, despite extensive research and measurements, synoptic estimates of water temperature are not available for most regions, limiting our ability to make systemwide and large-scale assessments of aquatic resources or estimates of aquatic species abundance and biodiversity. We used subwatershed averaging of point temperature measurements and associated multiscale landscape habitat conditions from over 3,300 lotic sites throughout New York State to develop and train artificial neural network models. Separate models predicting water temperature (in cold, cool, and warm temperature classes) within small catchment–stream order groups were developed for four modeling units, which together encompassed the entire state. Water temperature predictions were then made for each stream segment in the state. All models explained more than 90% of data variation. Elevation, riparian forest cover, landscape slope, and growing degree-days were among the most important model predictors of water temperature classes. Geological influences varied among regions. Predicted temperature distributions within stream networks displayed patterns of generally increasing temperature downstream but were patchy due to the averaging of water temperatures within stream size-classes of small drainages. Models predicted coldwater streams to be most numerous and warmwater streams to be generally associated with the largest rivers and relatively flat agricultural areas and urban areas. Model predictions provide a complete, georeferenced map of summer daytime mean stream temperature potential throughout New York State that can be used for planning and assessment at spatial scales from the stream segment class to the entire state.

  14. Modeling cyclist acceleration process for bicycle traffic simulation using naturalistic data

    Ma, Xiaoliang; Luo, Ding


    Cycling is a healthy and sustainable form of transportation. The recent increase of daily cyclists in Sweden has triggered broad interest in finding how policies and measures may facilitate the planning of bicycle traffic in the urban area. However, in comparison to car traffic, bicycle traffic is still far from well understood. This study is part of the research effort to investigate microscopic cyclist behavior, model bicycle traffic and finally build a simulation tool for applications in t...

  15. a Markov-Process Inspired CA Model of Highway Traffic

    Wang, Fa; Li, Li; Hu, Jian-Ming; Ji, Yan; Ma, Rui; Jiang, Rui

    To provide a more accurate description of the driving behaviors especially in car-following, namely a Markov-Gap cellular automata model is proposed in this paper. It views the variation of the gap between two consequent vehicles as a Markov process whose stationary distribution corresponds to the observed gap distribution. This new model provides a microscopic simulation explanation for the governing interaction forces (potentials) between the queuing vehicles, which cannot be directly measurable for traffic flow applications. The agreement between empirical observations and simulation results suggests the soundness of this new approach.

  16. Ultrasound-driven Viscous Streaming, Modelled via Momentum Injection

    James PACKER


    Full Text Available Microfluidic devices can use steady streaming caused by the ultrasonic oscillation of one or many gas bubbles in a liquid to drive small scale flow. Such streaming flows are difficult to evaluate, as analytic solutions are not available for any but the simplest cases, and direct computational fluid dynamics models are unsatisfactory due to the large difference in flow velocity between the steady streaming and the leading order oscillatory motion. We develop a numerical technique which uses a two-stage multiscale computational fluid dynamics approach to find the streaming flow as a steady problem, and validate this model against experimental results.

  17. Modeling, Identification, Estimation, and Simulation of Urban Traffic Flow in Jakarta and Bandung

    Herman Y. Sutarto


    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview of urban traffic flow from the perspective of system theory and stochastic control. The topics of modeling, identification, estimation and simulation techniques are evaluated and validated using actual traffic flow data from the city of Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia, and synthetic data generated from traffic micro-simulator VISSIM. The results on particle filter (PF based state estimation and Expectation-Maximization (EM based parameter estimation (identification confirm the proposed model gives satisfactory results that capture the variation of urban traffic flow. The combination of the technique and the simulator platform assembles possibility to develop a real-time traffic light controller.  

  18. Macroscopic Model and Simulation Analysis of Air Traffic Flow in Airport Terminal Area

    Honghai Zhang


    Full Text Available We focus on the spatiotemporal characteristics and their evolvement law of the air traffic flow in airport terminal area to provide scientific basis for optimizing flight control processes and alleviating severe air traffic conditions. Methods in this work combine mathematical derivation and simulation analysis. Based on cell transmission model the macroscopic models of arrival and departure air traffic flow in terminal area are established. Meanwhile, the interrelationship and influential factors of the three characteristic parameters as traffic flux, density, and velocity are presented. Then according to such models, the macro emergence of traffic flow evolution is emulated with the NetLogo simulation platform, and the correlativity of basic traffic flow parameters is deduced and verified by means of sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that there are remarkable relations among the three characteristic parameters of the air traffic flow in terminal area. Moreover, such relationships evolve distinctly with the flight procedures, control separations, and ATC strategies.

  19. Urban expressway traffic state forecasting based on multimode maximum entropy model


    The accurate and timely traffic state prediction has become increasingly important for the traffic participants,especially for the traffic managements. In this paper,the traffic state is described by Micro-LOS,and a direct prediction method is introduced. The development of the proposed method is based on Maximum Entropy (ME) models trained for multiple modes. In the Multimode Maximum Entropy (MME) framework,the different features like temporal and spatial features of traffic systems,regional traffic state are integrated simultaneously,and the different state behaviors based on 14 traffic modes defined by average speed according to the date-time division are also dealt with. The experiments based on the real data in Beijing expressway prove that the MME models outperforms the already existing model in both effectiveness and robustness.

  20. Urban scale air quality modelling using detailed traffic emissions estimates

    Borrego, C.; Amorim, J. H.; Tchepel, O.; Dias, D.; Rafael, S.; Sá, E.; Pimentel, C.; Fontes, T.; Fernandes, P.; Pereira, S. R.; Bandeira, J. M.; Coelho, M. C.


    The atmospheric dispersion of NOx and PM10 was simulated with a second generation Gaussian model over a medium-size south-European city. Microscopic traffic models calibrated with GPS data were used to derive typical driving cycles for each road link, while instantaneous emissions were estimated applying a combined Vehicle Specific Power/Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (VSP/EMEP) methodology. Site-specific background concentrations were estimated using time series analysis and a low-pass filter applied to local observations. Air quality modelling results are compared against measurements at two locations for a 1 week period. 78% of the results are within a factor of two of the observations for 1-h average concentrations, increasing to 94% for daily averages. Correlation significantly improves when background is added, with an average of 0.89 for the 24 h record. The results highlight the potential of detailed traffic and instantaneous exhaust emissions estimates, together with filtered urban background, to provide accurate input data to Gaussian models applied at the urban scale.

  1. Exposure estimates using urban plume dispersion and traffic microsimulation models

    Brown, M.J.; Mueller, C.; Bush, B.; Stretz, P.


    The goal of this research effort was to demonstrate a capability for analyzing emergency response issues resulting from accidental or mediated airborne toxic releases in an urban setting. In the first year of the program, the authors linked a system of fluid dynamics, plume dispersion, and vehicle transportation models developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to study the dispersion of a plume in an urban setting and the resulting exposures to vehicle traffic. This research is part of a larger laboratory-directed research and development project for studying the relationships between urban infrastructure elements and natural systems.

  2. Traffic Forecasting Model Based on Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Logical System

    WANG Wei-gong; LI Zheng; CHENG Mei-ling


    The local multiple regression fuzzy(LMRF)model based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logical system and its application in traffic forecasting is proposed. Besides its prediction accuracy is testified and the model is proved much better than conventional forecasting methods. According to the regional traffic system, the model perfectly states the complex non-linear relation of the traffic and the local social economy. The model also efficiently deals with the system lack of enough data.

  3. A novel macroscopic traffic model based on generalized optimal velocity model

    Zhou Xuan-Hao; Lu Yong-Zai


    In this paper, we adopt the coarse graining method proposed by Lee H K et al. to develop a macroscopic model from the microscopic traffic model-GOVM. The proposed model inherits the pararneter p which considers the influence of next-neareet car introduced in the GOVM model. The simulation results show that the new model is strictly consistent with the former microscopic model. Using this macroscopic model, we can avoid considering the details of each traffic on the road, and build more complex models such as road network model easily in the future.

  4. Network transmission model: A dynamic traffic model at network level (poster)

    Knoop, V.L.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    New IT techniques allow communication and coordination between traffic measures. To best use this, one needs to coordinate over longer distances. Optimization of the measures is not possible using traditional microscopic or macroscopic simulation models. The Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD)

  5. Development of a traffic noise prediction model for an urban environment.

    Sharma, Asheesh; Bodhe, G L; Schimak, G


    The objective of this study is to develop a traffic noise model under diverse traffic conditions in metropolitan cities. The model has been developed to calculate equivalent traffic noise based on four input variables i.e. equivalent traffic flow (Q e ), equivalent vehicle speed (S e ) and distance (d) and honking (h). The traffic data is collected and statistically analyzed in three different cases for 15-min during morning and evening rush hours. Case I represents congested traffic where equivalent vehicle speed is 30 km/h and case III represents calm traffic where no honking is recorded. The noise model showed better results than earlier developed noise model for Indian traffic conditions. A comparative assessment between present and earlier developed noise model has also been presented in the study. The model is validated with measured noise levels and the correlation coefficients between measured and predicted noise levels were found to be 0.75, 0.83 and 0.86 for case I, II and III respectively. The noise model performs reasonably well under different traffic conditions and could be implemented for traffic noise prediction at other region as well.

  6. Modelling of packet traffic with matrix analytic methods

    Andersen, Allan T.


    scenario was modelled using Markovian models. The Ordinary Differential Equations arising from these models were solved numerically. The results obtained seemed very similar to those obtained using a different method in previous work by Akinpelu & Skoog 1985. Recent measurement studies of packet traffic...... process. A heuristic formula for the tail behaviour of a single server queue fed by a superposition of renewal processes has been evaluated. The evaluation was performed by applying Matrix Analytic methods. The heuristic formula has applications in the Call Admission Control (CAC) procedure of the future...... network services i.e. 800 and 900 calls and advanced mobile communication services. The Markovian Arrival Process (MAP) has been used as a versatile tool to model the packet arrival process. Applying the MAP facilitates the use of Matrix Analytic methods to obtain performance measures associated...

  7. Model Predictive Control for Integrating Traffic Control Measures

    Hegyi, A.


    Dynamic traffic control measures, such as ramp metering and dynamic speed limits, can be used to better utilize the available road capacity. Due to the increasing traffic volumes and the increasing number of traffic jams the interaction between the control measures has increased such that local cont

  8. Model Predictive Control for Integrating Traffic Control Measures

    Hegyi, A.


    Dynamic traffic control measures, such as ramp metering and dynamic speed limits, can be used to better utilize the available road capacity. Due to the increasing traffic volumes and the increasing number of traffic jams the interaction between the control measures has increased such that local

  9. A Bayes Theory-Based Modeling Algorithm to End-to-end Network Traffic

    Zhao Hong-hao


    Full Text Available Recently, network traffic has exponentially increasing due to all kind of applications, such as mobile Internet, smart cities, smart transportations, Internet of things, and so on. the end-to-end network traffic becomes more important for traffic engineering. Usually end-to-end traffic estimation is highly difficult. This paper proposes a Bayes theory-based method to model the end-to-end network traffic. Firstly, the end-to-end network traffic is described as a independent identically distributed normal process. Then the Bases theory is used to characterize the end-to-end network traffic. By calculating the parameters, the model is determined correctly. Simulation results show that our approach is feasible and effective.

  10. Simulating train movement in railway traffic using a car-following model

    Li Ke-Ping; Guan Li-Jia


    Based on a car-following model, in this paper, we propose a new traffic model for simulating train movement in railway traffic. In the proposed model, some realistic characteristics of train movement are considered, such as the distance headway and the safety stopping distance. Using the proposed traffic model, we analyse the space-time diagram of traffic flow, the trajectory of train movement, etc. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can be successfully used for simulating the train movement. Some complex phenomena can be reproduced, such as the complex acceleration and deceleration of trains and the propagation of train delay.

  11. Performance Evaluation of Road Traffic Control Using a Fuzzy Cellular Model

    Płaczek, Bartłomiej


    In this paper a method is proposed for performance evaluation of road traffic control systems. The method is designed to be implemented in an on-line simulation environment, which enables optimisation of adaptive traffic control strategies. Performance measures are computed using a fuzzy cellular traffic model, formulated as a hybrid system combining cellular automata and fuzzy calculus. Experimental results show that the introduced method allows the performance to be evaluated using imprecise traffic measurements. Moreover, the fuzzy definitions of performance measures are convenient for uncertainty determination in traffic control decisions.

  12. Modelling bacterial water quality in streams draining pastoral land.

    Collins, Rob; Rutherford, Kit


    A model has been developed to predict concentrations of the faecal bacteria indicator E. coli in streams draining grazed hill-country in New Zealand. The long-term aim of the modelling is to assess effects of land management upon faecal contamination and, in the short term, to provide a framework for field-based research. A daily record of grazing livestock is used to estimate E. coli inputs to a catchment, and transport of bacteria to the stream network is simulated within surface and subsurface flows. Deposition of E. coli directly to streams is incorporated where cattle have access to them, and areas of permanent saturation ('seepage zones') are also represented. Bacteria are routed down the stream network and in-stream processes of deposition and entrainment are simulated. Die-off, both on land and in water, is simulated as a function of temperature and solar radiation. The model broadly reproduces observed E. coli concentrations in a hill-country catchment grazed by sheep and beef cattle, although uncertainty exists with a number of the processes represented. The model is sensitive to the distance over which surface runoff delivers bacteria to a stream and the amount of excretion direct to streams and onto seepage zones. Scenario analysis suggests that riparian buffer strips may improve bacterial water quality both by eliminating livestock defaecation in and near streams, and by trapping of bacteria by the riparian vegetation.

  13. A New Traffic Model for Mobile Wireless Networks

    ZHAO Fang-ming; JIANC Ling-ge; HE Chen


    A new traffic model for mobile wireless networks was given and analysed.In the model, it is considered of traffic characteristic for two special periods of time.A pre-emptive priority scheme combined with channel borrowing strategy according to the speciality was proposed.All the channels can be used by non-real-time services,and real-time services are given higher priority for they are allowed to pre-empt channels used by non-real-time services.Either real-time handoff requests or non-real-time handoff requests can be queued in queues when there is no channel can be used.Some channels are reserved for real-time handoff requests, which can also be used by nonreal-time service when they are idle.Simulation results are also given.It is seen that our scheme performs better than other schemes when the arrival rate of real-time services is much higher than non-real-time services.

  14. Integrated traffic conflict model for estimating crash modification factors.

    Shahdah, Usama; Saccomanno, Frank; Persaud, Bhagwant


    Crash modification factors (CMFs) for road safety treatments are usually obtained through observational models based on reported crashes. Observational Bayesian before-and-after methods have been applied to obtain more precise estimates of CMFs by accounting for the regression-to-the-mean bias inherent in naive methods. However, sufficient crash data reported over an extended period of time are needed to provide reliable estimates of treatment effects, a requirement that can be a challenge for certain types of treatment. In addition, these studies require that sites analyzed actually receive the treatment to which the CMF pertains. Another key issue with observational approaches is that they are not causal in nature, and as such, cannot provide a sound "behavioral" rationale for the treatment effect. Surrogate safety measures based on high risk vehicle interactions and traffic conflicts have been proposed to address this issue by providing a more "causal perspective" on lack of safety for different road and traffic conditions. The traffic conflict approach has been criticized, however, for lacking a formal link to observed and verified crashes, a difficulty that this paper attempts to resolve by presenting and investigating an alternative approach for estimating CMFs using simulated conflicts that are linked formally to observed crashes. The integrated CMF estimates are compared to estimates from an empirical Bayes (EB) crash-based before-and-after analysis for the same sample of treatment sites. The treatment considered involves changing left turn signal priority at Toronto signalized intersections from permissive to protected-permissive. The results are promising in that the proposed integrated method yields CMFs that closely match those obtained from the crash-based EB before-and-after analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A cellular automata model of traffic flow with variable probability of randomization

    Zheng, Wei-Fan; Zhang, Ji-Ye


    Research on the stochastic behavior of traffic flow is important to understand the intrinsic evolution rules of a traffic system. By introducing an interactional potential of vehicles into the randomization step, an improved cellular automata traffic flow model with variable probability of randomization is proposed in this paper. In the proposed model, the driver is affected by the interactional potential of vehicles before him, and his decision-making process is related to the interactional potential. Compared with the traditional cellular automata model, the modeling is more suitable for the driver’s random decision-making process based on the vehicle and traffic situations in front of him in actual traffic. From the improved model, the fundamental diagram (flow-density relationship) is obtained, and the detailed high-density traffic phenomenon is reproduced through numerical simulation. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11172247, 61273021, 61373009, and 61100118).

  16. Statistical traffic modeling of MPEG frame size: Experiments and Analysis

    Haniph A. Latchman


    Full Text Available For guaranteed quality of service (QoS and sufficient bandwidth in a communication network which provides an integrated multimedia service, it is important to obtain an analytical and tractable model of the compressed MPEG data. This paper presents a statistical approach to a group of picture (GOP MPEG frame size model to increase network traffic performance in a communication network. We extract MPEG frame data from commercial DVD movies and make probability histograms to analyze the statistical characteristics of MPEG frame data. Six candidates of probability distributions are considered here and their parameters are obtained from the empirical data using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE. This paper shows that the lognormal distribution is the best fitting model of MPEG-2 total frame data.

  17. Classification of Automated Search Traffic

    Buehrer, Greg; Stokes, Jack W.; Chellapilla, Kumar; Platt, John C.

    As web search providers seek to improve both relevance and response times, they are challenged by the ever-increasing tax of automated search query traffic. Third party systems interact with search engines for a variety of reasons, such as monitoring a web site’s rank, augmenting online games, or possibly to maliciously alter click-through rates. In this paper, we investigate automated traffic (sometimes referred to as bot traffic) in the query stream of a large search engine provider. We define automated traffic as any search query not generated by a human in real time. We first provide examples of different categories of query logs generated by automated means. We then develop many different features that distinguish between queries generated by people searching for information, and those generated by automated processes. We categorize these features into two classes, either an interpretation of the physical model of human interactions, or as behavioral patterns of automated interactions. Using the these detection features, we next classify the query stream using multiple binary classifiers. In addition, a multiclass classifier is then developed to identify subclasses of both normal and automated traffic. An active learning algorithm is used to suggest which user sessions to label to improve the accuracy of the multiclass classifier, while also seeking to discover new classes of automated traffic. Performance analysis are then provided. Finally, the multiclass classifier is used to predict the subclass distribution for the search query stream.

  18. Lattice hydrodynamic model based traffic control: A transportation cyber-physical system approach

    Liu, Hui; Sun, Dihua; Liu, Weining


    Lattice hydrodynamic model is a typical continuum traffic flow model, which describes the jamming transition of traffic flow properly. Previous studies in lattice hydrodynamic model have shown that the use of control method has the potential to improve traffic conditions. In this paper, a new control method is applied in lattice hydrodynamic model from a transportation cyber-physical system approach, in which only one lattice site needs to be controlled in this control scheme. The simulation verifies the feasibility and validity of this method, which can ensure the efficient and smooth operation of the traffic flow.

  19. An Approach to Modeling the Impact of Traffic Incident on Urban Expressway

    Yaping Li


    Full Text Available To identify network bottlenecks of urban expressway effectively is a foundational work for improving network traffic condition and preventing traffic congestion. This study proposes a methodology to estimate the impact of traffic incident on urban expressway on the basis of modified cell transmission model. The metastable state was taken into account in the proposed method to reflect the actual operating state of traffic flow on urban expressway as much as possible. Regarding the location of traffic incident, the method of cell restructuring settings was discussed. We then proceed to introduce a new concept of the effected length in a given time period as the evaluation indicator to directly depict the influence of traffic incident. The proposed method was tested on a 6516-meter urban expressway section of west second ring road in Beijing. The simulation results indicated that the proposed methodology performs well to predict the impact of traffic incident on urban expressway.

  20. GIS-based methods for establishing the datafoundation for traffic models

    Nielsen, Otto Anker


    Traffic models demand large amounts of data - some of which are: Traffic network topology, traffic network data, zone-data and trip matrices. GIS is a natural tool for handling most of these data as it can ease the work process and improve the quality control. However, traffic models demand a com......-plex topology not very well covered by the traditional GIS-topology. The paper describes a number of applications where ARC/INFO and ArcView have been used to automate the process of building a traffic network topology. The methodology has been used on a number of full-scale models, from medium sized urban...... at network level.Some of these tasks would have demanded an overwhelming work effort to carry through with tra-ditional non-GIS based approaches. In addition, the paper discusses how the GIS can interact with the traffic model algorithms (typically external applications). Finally, needs for further...

  1. DTALite: A queue-based mesoscopic traffic simulator for fast model evaluation and calibration

    Xuesong Zhou


    Full Text Available A number of emerging dynamic traffic analysis applications, such as regional or statewide traffic assignment, require a theoretically rigorous and computationally efficient model to describe the propagation and dissipation of system congestion with bottleneck capacity constraints. An open-source light-weight dynamic traffic assignment (DTA package, namely DTALite, has been developed to allow a rapid utilization of advanced dynamic traffic analysis capabilities. This paper describes its three major modeling components: (1 a light-weight dynamic network loading simulator that embeds Newell’s simplified kinematic wave model; (2 a mesoscopic agent-based DTA procedure to incorporate driver’s heterogeneity; and (3 an integrated traffic assignment and origin–destination demand calibration system that can iteratively adjust path flow volume and distribution to match the observed traffic counts. A number of real-world test cases are described to demonstrate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed models under different network and data availability conditions.

  2. Order-parameter model for unstable multilane traffic flow

    Lubashevsky; Mahnke


    We discuss a phenomenological approach to the description of unstable vehicle motion on multilane highways that explains in a simple way the observed sequence of the "free flow synchronized mode jam" phase transitions as well as the hysteresis in these transitions. We introduce a variable called an order parameter that accounts for possible correlations in the vehicle motion at different lanes. So, it is principally due to the "many-body" effects in the car interaction in contrast to such variables as the mean car density and velocity being actually the zeroth and first moments of the "one-particle" distribution function. Therefore, we regard the order parameter as an additional independent state variable of traffic flow. We assume that these correlations are due to a small group of "fast" drivers and by taking into account the general properties of the driver behavior we formulate a governing equation for the order parameter. In this context we analyze the instability of homogeneous traffic flow that manifested itself in the above-mentioned phase transitions and gave rise to the hysteresis in both of them. Besides, the jam is characterized by the vehicle flows at different lanes which are independent of one another. We specify a certain simplified model in order to study the general features of the car cluster self-formation under the "free flow synchronized motion" phase transition. In particular, we show that the main local parameters of the developed cluster are determined by the state characteristics of vehicle motion only.

  3. Traffic Prediction Scheme based on Chaotic Models in Wireless Networks

    Xiangrong Feng


    Full Text Available Based on the local support vector algorithm of chaotic time series analysis, the Hannan-Quinn information criterion and SAX symbolization are introduced. Then a novel prediction algorithm is proposed, which is successfully applied to the prediction of wireless network traffic. For the correct prediction problems of short-term flow with smaller data set size, the weakness of the algorithms during model construction is analyzed by study and comparison to LDK prediction algorithm. It is verified the Hannan-Quinn information principle can be used to calculate the number of neighbor points to replace pervious empirical method, which uses the number of neighbor points to acquire more accurate prediction model. Finally, actual flow data is applied to confirm the accuracy rate of the proposed algorithm LSDHQ. It is testified by our experiments that it also has higher performance in adaptability than that of LSDHQ algorithm.

  4. A Model for the Handover Traffic and Channel Occupancy Time in LEO Satellite Networks

    WangJingyu; YaoYongyang


    This paper presents a method to determine the parameters of the traffic model for the LEO satellite networks-the handover traffic and the mean channel occupancy time.The main idea is that the handover traffic is mainly due to the movement of the satellites and the velocity of the mobile terminals and earth rotation is ignored.The performance level can be calculated accord-ing to different handover queuing model.


    OU Zhong-hui; TAO Ming-de; WU Zheng


    Based on the dimensionless dynamic model of traffic flow, the model parameters were compared with numerically simulating solutions, and the effects of the former on the latter was investigated. Some relations between the parameters were obtained. Investigation several idealized results from dimensionless dynamic model of traffic flow were concluded.

  6. A study of a main-road cellular automata traffic flow model

    黄乒花; 孔令江; 刘慕仁


    A main-road cellular automata traffic flow model on two dimensions is presented based on the Biham-Middleton-Levine traffic model. Its evolution equations are given and the self-organization and organization cooperation phenomenain this model are also studied by using computer simulation.

  7. Multi-class continuum traffic flow models: Analysis and simulation methods

    Van Wageningen-Kessels, F.L.M.


    How to model and simulate traffic flow including different vehicles such as cars and trucks? This dissertation answers this question by analyzing existing models and simulation methods and by developing new ones. The new model (Fastlane) describes traffic as a continuum flow while accounting for dif

  8. Learning about the Milky Way potential with generative stream models

    McMillan, Paul


    Streams are formed when satellites of a galaxy are pulled apart by tidal forces and the stars then drift apart because they are placed on different orbits. Therefore it is the difference between the orbits that determines the shape of the stream (rather than the stream nearly following a single orbit). This means that a good model of the structure of a stream can be defined in terms of orbital frequencies and angle coordinates.I’ll talk about a new method for creating generative models of streams based on this insight. Given that the orbital frequencies are directly related to the actions, the method of torus modelling (which finds the orbits corresponding to a given value of actions) is ideally suited to the problem. I’ll show results from a new method that interpolates between orbits (tori), to rapidly generate stream models that can be used to determine the gravitational potential that the stream is moving in. This method has now been made publicly available.

  9. A Cellular Automata Traffic Flow Model considering Bus Lane Changing Behavior with Scheduling Parameters

    Zun-dong Zhang


    Full Text Available According to different driving behavioral characteristics of bus drivers, a cellular automata traffic model considering the bus lane changing behavior with scheduling parameters is proposed in this paper. Traffic bottleneck problems caused by bus stops are simulated in multiple lanes roads with no-bay bus stations. With the mixed traffic flow composed of different bus arrival rate, flow-density graph, density distribution graph, and temporal-spatial graph are presented. Furthermore, the mixed traffic flow characteristics are analyzed. Numerical experiment results show that the proposed model can generate a variety of complicated realistic phenomena in the traffic system with bus stops and provide theoretical basis for better using of traffic flow model.

  10. Crash Frequency Modeling Using Real-Time Environmental and Traffic Data and Unbalanced Panel Data Models.

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang


    Traffic and environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), which frequently change with time, have a significant impact on crash occurrence. Traditional crash frequency models with large temporal scales and aggregated variables are not sufficient to capture the time-varying nature of driving environmental factors, causing significant loss of critical information on crash frequency modeling. This paper aims at developing crash frequency models with refined temporal scales for complex driving environments, with such an effort providing more detailed and accurate crash risk information which can allow for more effective and proactive traffic management and law enforcement intervention. Zero-inflated, negative binomial (ZINB) models with site-specific random effects are developed with unbalanced panel data to analyze hourly crash frequency on highway segments. The real-time driving environment information, including traffic, weather and road surface condition data, sourced primarily from the Road Weather Information System, is incorporated into the models along with site-specific road characteristics. The estimation results of unbalanced panel data ZINB models suggest there are a number of factors influencing crash frequency, including time-varying factors (e.g., visibility and hourly traffic volume) and site-varying factors (e.g., speed limit). The study confirms the unique significance of the real-time weather, road surface condition and traffic data to crash frequency modeling.

  11. Modelling animal waste pathogen transport from agricultural land to streams

    Pandey, Pramod K.; Soupir, Michelle L.; Ikenberry, Charles


    The transport of animal waste pathogens from crop land to streams can potentially elevate pathogen levels in stream water. Applying animal manure into crop land as fertilizers is a common practice in developing as well as in developed countries. Manure application into the crop land, however, can cause potential human health. To control pathogen levels in ambient water bodies such as streams, improving our understanding of pathogen transport at farm scale as well as at watershed scale is required. To understand the impacts of crop land receiving animal waste as fertilizers on stream's pathogen levels, here we investigate pathogen indicator transport at watershed scale. We exploited watershed scale hydrological model to estimate the transport of pathogens from the crop land to streams. Pathogen indicator levels (i.e., E. coli levels) in the stream water were predicted. With certain assumptions, model results are reasonable. This study can be used as guidelines for developing the models for calculating the impacts of crop land's animal manure on stream water.

  12. Applying the maximum information principle to cell transmission model of tra-ffic flow

    刘喜敏; 卢守峰


    This paper integrates the maximum information principle with the Cell Transmission Model (CTM) to formulate the velo-city distribution evolution of vehicle traffic flow. The proposed discrete traffic kinetic model uses the cell transmission model to cal-culate the macroscopic variables of the vehicle transmission, and the maximum information principle to examine the velocity distri-bution in each cell. The velocity distribution based on maximum information principle is solved by the Lagrange multiplier method. The advantage of the proposed model is that it can simultaneously calculate the hydrodynamic variables and velocity distribution at the cell level. An example shows how the proposed model works. The proposed model is a hybrid traffic simulation model, which can be used to understand the self-organization phenomena in traffic flows and predict the traffic evolution.

  13. Microscopic modeling of multi-lane highway traffic flow

    Hodas, N O


    In heavy traffic with congested roadway the maximum traffic flow also depends on length of cars. This is deduced in a simple derivation suited for classroom demonstration as well as homework. The resulting equation demonstrates a new relation to an apparently unrelated area of physics, the maximum ship velocity (hull speed) and explains why traffic is sometimes faster on the slow lane on a congested multi-lane road.

  14. Efficient particle-based estimation of marginal costs in a first-order macroscopic traffic flow model

    Zuurbier, F.S.; Hegyi, A.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    Marginal costs in traffic networks are the extra costs incurred to the system as the result of extra traffic. Marginal costs are required frequently e.g. when considering system optimal traffic assignment or tolling problems. When explicitly considering spillback in a traffic flow model, one can use

  15. Econometric Forecasting Models for Air Traffic Passenger of Indonesia

    Viktor Suryan


    Full Text Available One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation. With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.

  16. Dilemma game in a traffic model with the crossing

    Zhang, Wei


    In this paper, we investigate the non-signalized intersection issue considering traffic flow and energy dissipation in terms of game theory based on the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NaSch) model. There are two types of driver agents at the intersection when vehicles on the two streets are approaching to it simultaneously: C agents (cooperative strategy) pulling up to avoid collision and D agents (defective strategy) crossing the intersection audaciously. Phase diagram of the system, which describes free-flow phase, segregation phase, jammed phase and maximum current curve representing the social maximum payoff, is presented. Dilemma game is observed at the phase-segregated state except for the case of $v_{\\max }=1.$

  17. Queuing model of a traffic bottleneck with bimodal arrival rate

    Woelki, Marko


    This paper revisits the problem of tuning the density in a traffic bottleneck by reduction of the arrival rate when the queue length exceeds a certain threshold, studied recently for variants of totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) and Burgers equation. In the present approach, a simple finite queuing system is considered and its contrasting “phase diagram” is derived. One can observe one jammed region, one low-density region and one region where the queue length is equilibrated around the threshold. Despite the simplicity of the model the physics is in accordance with the previous approach: The density is tuned at the threshold if the exit rate lies in between the two arrival rates.

  18. Data, modelling and inference in road traffic networks.

    Gibbens, Richard J; Saatci, Yunus


    In this paper, we study UK road traffic data and explore a range of modelling and inference questions that arise from them. For example, loop detectors on the M25 motorway record speed and flow measurements at regularly spaced locations as well as the entry and exit lanes of junctions. An exploratory study of these data helps us to better understand and quantify the nature of congestion on the road network. From a traveller's perspective it is crucially important to understand the overall journey times and we look at methods to improve our ability to predict journey times given access jointly to both real-time and historical loop detector data. Throughout this paper we will comment on related work derived from US freeway data.

  19. Traffic-driven SIR epidemic model on networks

    Pu, Cunlai; Yang, Jian


    We propose a novel SIR epidemic model which is driven by the transmission of infection packets in networks. Specifically, infected nodes generate and deliver infection packets causing the spread of the epidemic, while recovered nodes block the delivery of infection packets, and this inhibits the epidemic spreading. The efficient routing protocol governed by a control parameter $\\alpha$ is used in the packet transmission. We obtain the maximum instantaneous population of infected nodes, the maximum population of ever infected nodes, as well as the corresponding optimal $\\alpha$ through simulation. We find that generally more balanced load distribution leads to more intense and wide spread of an epidemic in networks. Increasing either average node degree or homogeneity of degree distribution will facilitate epidemic spreading. When packet generation rate $\\rho$ is small, increasing $\\rho$ favors epidemic spreading. However, when $\\rho$ is large enough, traffic congestion appears which inhibits epidemic spreadin...

  20. Environmental stress model for evaluation of vessel traffic in ports and waterways

    HU Zhiwu; CHEN Weijiong; INOUE K


    Environmental stress model is proposed as an effective tool to the analysis and evaluation of navigational safety in ports and waterways. Marine traffic simulations are carried out in a virtual port area with various arrangements and conditions. Calculations of stress values and traffic volume criteria are illustrated. The simulation results provide a valuable hint for safety management of vessel traffic. The model provides quantitative information and helps administrators in decision making to achieve desired safety level and improve the efficiency of vessel traffic in ports and waterways.


    Sheela Alex


    Full Text Available The traffic stream behaves differently in a mixed traffic condition as compared to that of a homogeneous condition. In a mixed traffic condition, as the traffic behaviour is always fluctuating based on the interaction caused by the surrounding elements, it is essential that the factors which affect the dynamic nature of the traffic characteristics should be considered for the proper design of the system. The paper highlights the methodology for developing the dynamic Passenger Car Unit (PCU under various vehicular interactions for mixed traffic conditions prevalent in India. Experiments were carried out using the micro simulation model, TRAFFICSIM, which was developed for signalised intersections by the authors and reported elsewhere. The dynamic PCU values were obtained based on the analysis of the outputs of TRAFFICSIM, for varying approach width, traffic composition, stream speed and traffic volume. Modified area occupancy concept was used to develop Dynamic PCU values in a mixed traffic condition. In the modified area occupancy method, the area occupancy of the vehicle types for various traffic compositions is compared with area occupancy of the passenger cars in a car only traffic condition having the same stream speed. The study showed that the PCU values are highly sensitive to the given traffic conditions such as approach width, traffic composition, stream speed as well as flow ratio.

  2. Parameter Estimation for Traffic Noise Models Using a Harmony Search Algorithm

    Deok-Soon An


    Full Text Available A technique has been developed for predicting road traffic noise for environmental assessment, taking into account traffic volume as well as road surface conditions. The ASJ model (ASJ Prediction Model for Road Traffic Noise, 1999, which is based on the sound power level of the noise emitted by the interaction between the road surface and tires, employs regression models for two road surface types: dense-graded asphalt (DGA and permeable asphalt (PA. However, these models are not applicable to other types of road surfaces. Accordingly, this paper introduces a parameter estimation procedure for ASJ-based noise prediction models, utilizing a harmony search (HS algorithm. Traffic noise measurement data for four different vehicle types were used in the algorithm to determine the regression parameters for several road surface types. The parameters of the traffic noise prediction models were evaluated using another measurement set, and good agreement was observed between the predicted and measured sound power levels.

  3. A new cellular automata model of traffic flow with negative exponential weighted look-ahead potential

    Ma, Xiao; Zheng, Wei-Fan; Jiang, Bao-Shan; Zhang, Ji-Ye


    With the development of traffic systems, some issues such as traffic jams become more and more serious. Efficient traffic flow theory is needed to guide the overall controlling, organizing and management of traffic systems. On the basis of the cellular automata model and the traffic flow model with look-ahead potential, a new cellular automata traffic flow model with negative exponential weighted look-ahead potential is presented in this paper. By introducing the negative exponential weighting coefficient into the look-ahead potential and endowing the potential of vehicles closer to the driver with a greater coefficient, the modeling process is more suitable for the driver’s random decision-making process which is based on the traffic environment that the driver is facing. The fundamental diagrams for different weighting parameters are obtained by using numerical simulations which show that the negative exponential weighting coefficient has an obvious effect on high density traffic flux. The complex high density non-linear traffic behavior is also reproduced by numerical simulations. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11572264, 11172247, 11402214, and 61373009).

  4. A New Macro Model for Traffic Flow on a Highway with Ramps and Numerical Tests

    TANG Tie-Qiao; HUANG Hai-Jun; S.C.Wong; GAO Zi-You; ZHANG Ying


    In this paper, we present a new macro model for traffic flow on a highway with ramps based on the existing models. We use the new model to study the effects of on-off-ramp on the main road traffic during the morning rush period and the evening rush period. Numerical tests show that, during the two rush periods, these effects are often different and related to the status of the main road traffic. If the main road traffic flow is uniform, then ramps always produce stop-and-go traffic when the main road density is between two critical values, and ramps have little effect on the main road traffic when the main road density is less than the smaller critical value or greater than the larger critical value. If a small perturbation appears on the main road, ramp may lead to stop-and-go traffic, or relieve or even eliminate the stop-and-go traffic, under different circumstances. These results are consistent with real traffic, which shows that the new model is reasonable.

  5. A Macro Model for Traffic Flow with Consideration of Static Bottleneck

    唐铁桥; 李鹏; 吴永洪; 黄海军


    In this paper, we develop a macro model for traffic flow with consideration of static bottleneck to explore the impacts of static bottleneck on traffic flow. The analytical and numerical results show that the proposed model can qualitatively describe the equilibrium flux, uniform flow and small perturbation under the action of a static bottleneck.

  6. Modeling transient streaming potentials in falling-head permeameter tests.

    Malama, Bwalya; Revil, André


    We present transient streaming potential data collected during falling-head permeameter tests performed on samples of two sands with different physical and chemical properties. The objective of the work is to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) and the electrokinetic coupling coefficient (Cl ) of the sand samples. A semi-empirical model based on the falling-head permeameter flow model and electrokinetic coupling is used to analyze the streaming potential data and to estimate K and Cl . The values of K estimated from head data are used to validate the streaming potential method. Estimates of K from streaming potential data closely match those obtained from the associated head data, with less than 10% deviation. The electrokinetic coupling coefficient was estimated from streaming potential vs. (1) time and (2) head data for both sands. The results indicate that, within limits of experimental error, the values of Cl estimated by the two methods are essentially the same. The results of this work demonstrate that a temporal record of the streaming potential response in falling-head permeameter tests can be used to estimate both K and Cl . They further indicate the potential for using transient streaming potential data as a proxy for hydraulic head in hydrogeology applications.

  7. Website Traffics Acquisition Model for E-Business using Search Engine Optimization and Sitemap Submission (SEOSS)



    Abstract—It is inevitable to accept that today’s business trends focus on selling products online using the latest web application system and website marketing tools. This phenomenon creates a high competition on search engine ranking among website owners in gaining business leads, visitor traffics and acquisitions. This paper proposed a model on improving e-business traffics acquisitions in terms of the number of new visitors (traffics) and returning visitors using Search Engine Optimization...

  8. Dynamic stochastic optimization models for air traffic flow management

    Mukherjee, Avijit

    This dissertation presents dynamic stochastic optimization models for Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) that enables decisions to adapt to new information on evolving capacities of National Airspace System (NAS) resources. Uncertainty is represented by a set of capacity scenarios, each depicting a particular time-varying capacity profile of NAS resources. We use the concept of a scenario tree in which multiple scenarios are possible initially. Scenarios are eliminated as possibilities in a succession of branching points, until the specific scenario that will be realized on a particular day is known. Thus the scenario tree branching provides updated information on evolving scenarios, and allows ATFM decisions to be re-addressed and revised. First, we propose a dynamic stochastic model for a single airport ground holding problem (SAGHP) that can be used for planning Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) when there is uncertainty about future airport arrival capacities. Ground delays of non-departed flights can be revised based on updated information from scenario tree branching. The problem is formulated so that a wide range of objective functions, including non-linear delay cost functions and functions that reflect equity concerns can be optimized. Furthermore, the model improves on existing practice by ensuring efficient use of available capacity without necessarily exempting long-haul flights. Following this, we present a methodology and optimization models that can be used for decentralized decision making by individual airlines in the GDP planning process, using the solutions from the stochastic dynamic SAGHP. Airlines are allowed to perform cancellations, and re-allocate slots to remaining flights by substitutions. We also present an optimization model that can be used by the FAA, after the airlines perform cancellation and substitutions, to re-utilize vacant arrival slots that are created due to cancellations. Finally, we present three stochastic integer programming

  9. Traffic model with an absorbing-state phase transition

    Iannini, M. L. L.; Dickman, Ronald


    We consider a modified Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model in which drivers do not decelerate if their speed is smaller than the headway (number of empty sites to the car ahead). (In the original NS model, such a reduction in speed occurs with probability p , independent of the headway, as long as the current speed is greater than zero.) In the modified model the free-flow state (with all vehicles traveling at the maximum speed, vmax) is absorbing for densities ρ smaller than a critical value ρc=1 /(vmax+2 ) . The phase diagram in the ρ -p plane is reentrant: for densities in the range ρc ,<<ρ <ρc , both small and large values of p favor free flow, while for intermediate values, a nonzero fraction of vehicles have speeds model. Our results suggest an unexpected connection between traffic models and stochastic sandpiles.

  10. Modeling Left-Turn Driving Behavior at Signalized Intersections with Mixed Traffic Conditions

    Hong Li


    Full Text Available In many developing countries, mixed traffic is the most common type of urban transportation; traffic of this type faces many major problems in traffic engineering, such as conflicts, inefficiency, and security issues. This paper focuses on the traffic engineering concerns on the driving behavior of left-turning vehicles caused by different degrees of pedestrian violations. The traffic characteristics of left-turning vehicles and pedestrians in the affected region at a signalized intersection were analyzed and a cellular-automata-based “following-conflict” driving behavior model that mainly addresses four basic behavior modes was proposed to study the conflict and behavior mechanisms of left-turning vehicles by mathematic methodologies. Four basic driving behavior modes were reproduced in computer simulations, and a logit model of the behavior mode choice was also developed to analyze the relative share of each behavior mode. Finally, the microscopic characteristics of driving behaviors and the macroscopic parameters of traffic flow in the affected region were all determined. These data are important reference for geometry and capacity design for signalized intersections. The simulation results show that the proposed models are valid and can be used to represent the behavior of left-turning vehicles in the case of conflicts with illegally crossing pedestrians. These results will have potential applications on improving traffic safety and traffic capacity at signalized intersections with mixed traffic conditions.

  11. Model based monitoring of traffic noise in an urban district

    Eerden, F. van der; Graafland, F.; Wessels, P.; Segers, A.; Salomons, E.


    Noise control for an urban district starts by understanding the actual noise situation. A correct understanding is needed to take appropriate and cost efficient measures. For a noise burdened urban district, surrounded by road and rail traffic, the traffic noise as well as the annoyance has been mea

  12. Traffic Flow at Sags: Theory, Modeling and Control

    Goni-Ros, B.


    Sag vertical curves (sags) are roadway sections along which the gradient increases gradually in the direction of traffic. Empirical observations show that, on freeways, traffic congestion often occurs at sags; actually, in some countries (e.g., Japan), sags are one of the most common types of freewa

  13. Exact solutions to traffic density estimation problems involving the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards traffic flow model using mixed integer programming

    Canepa, Edward S.


    This article presents a new mixed integer programming formulation of the traffic density estimation problem in highways modeled by the Lighthill Whitham Richards equation. We first present an equivalent formulation of the problem using an Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Then, using a semi-analytic formula, we show that the model constraints resulting from the Hamilton-Jacobi equation result in linear constraints, albeit with unknown integers. We then pose the problem of estimating the density at the initial time given incomplete and inaccurate traffic data as a Mixed Integer Program. We then present a numerical implementation of the method using experimental flow and probe data obtained during Mobile Century experiment. © 2012 IEEE.

  14. High-Speed Network Traffic Management Analysis and Optimization Models and Methods

    Zaborovski, V; Podgurski, Y; Shemanin, Y


    The main steps of automatic control methodology include the hierarchical representation of management system and the formal definitions of input variables, object and goal of control of each management level. A Petri net model of individual traffic source is presented. It is noted that the current set of traffic parameters recommended by ATM-forum is not enough to synthesize optimal traffic control system. The feature of traffic self-similarity can be used to effectively solve optimal control task. An example of an optimal control scheme for cell discarding algorithm is presented.

  15. Intrusion Detection for Wireless Sensor Network Based on Traffic Prediction Model

    Zhijie, Han; Ruchuang, Wang

    In this paper, the authors first propose an efficient traffic prediction algorithm for sensor nodes which exploits the Markov model. Based on this algorithm, a distributed anomaly detection scheme, TPID(Traffic Prediction based Intrusion Detection), is designed to detect the attacks which make more influence on packet traffic, such as selective forwarding attacks, DOS attacks. In TPID, each node acts independently when predicting the traffic and detecting an anomaly. Neither special hardware nor nodes cooperation is needed. The scheme is evaluated and compared with other method in experiments. Results show that the proposed scheme obtain high detection ratio with less computation and communication cost.

  16. An ARIMA model for forecasting Wi-Fi data network traffic values

    Cesar Augusto Hernández Suarez


    Full Text Available This present scientific and technological research was aimed at showing that time series represent an excellent tool for data traffic modelling within Wi-Fi networks. Box-Jenkins methodology (described herein was used for this purpose. Wi-Fi traffic modelling through correlated models, such as time series, allowed a great part of the data’s behaviourl dynamics to be adjusted into a sin- gle equation and future traffic values to be estimated based on this. All this is advantageous when it comes to planning integrated coverage, reserving resources and performing more efficient and timely control at different levels of the Wi-Fi data network func- tional hierarchy. A six order ARIMA traffic model was obtained as a research outcome which predicted traffic with relatively small mean square error values for an 18-day term.

  17. Neural Networks Based Modelling of Traffic Accidents in Interurban Rural Highways, Duzce Sampling

    Ozgan, Ercan; Demirci, Recep

    this study, alternatively, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based modelling of traffic accidents on two line interurban rural highways in terms of number of accidents; injuries and dead have been presented. This study was conducted for D100/11 state highway section in Duzce. In this section of the highway, totally 783 traffic accidents occurred and 1396 vehicles involved in these accidents between 2002 and 2006 years. Using traffic accident reports data, ANN was applied for modelling of traffic accidents with respect to distance and months. As a result, it was observed that there was a perfect fit between the simulation results and actual data of accidents and the created neural network model of accidents resembles the actual data. Therefore, the developed model could be an alternative method for predictions of traffic accidents on interurban rural highways.

  18. Simulation model based on Monte Carlo method for traffic assignment in local area road network

    Yuchuan DU; Yuanjing GENG; Lijun SUN


    For a local area road network, the available traffic data of traveling are the flow volumes in the key intersections, not the complete OD matrix. Considering the circumstance characteristic and the data availability of a local area road network, a new model for traffic assignment based on Monte Carlo simulation of intersection turning movement is provided in this paper. For good stability in temporal sequence, turning ratio is adopted as the important parameter of this model. The formulation for local area road network assignment problems is proposed on the assumption of random turning behavior. The traffic assignment model based on the Monte Carlo method has been used in traffic analysis for an actual urban road network. The results comparing surveying traffic flow data and determining flow data by the previous model verify the applicability and validity of the proposed methodology.




    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of implementing a traffic signal optimisation model to improve real-time operations of traffic control systems. Advanced computer algorithms and traffic optimisation techniques can provide benefits over existing systems by reducing delays, improving travel times and reducing environmental emissions. The feasibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated by interfacing the traffic signal optimisation model to a microscopic traffic simulation tool, which enabled the evaluation of the benefits of the algorithm using computers in a controlled environment without disrupting traffic conditions. The main advantage of the proposed algorithm is its ability to detect dynamic changes in traffic flow conditions by using short-term historical demand data obtained from upstream vehicle loop detectors. The experimental results for under-saturated traffic conditions showed that the algorithm's performance was superior to optimal fixed time control. The results also confirmed that as traffic volumes reach saturated conditions, the performance of the algorithm decreased but remained better than what can be achieved by fixed time control systems.

  20. Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model. Version 2.0; User's Guide

    Etheridge, Melvin; Plugge, Joana; Retina, Nusrat


    The Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model, Version 2.0 (FAM 2.0), is a discrete event simulation model designed to support analysis of alternative concepts in air traffic management and control. FAM 2.0 was developed by the Logistics Management Institute (LMI) a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) contract. This document provides a guide for using the model in analysis. Those interested in making enhancements or modification to the model should consult the companion document, Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model, Version 2.0 Technical Description.

  1. Integrative neural networks models for stream assessment in restoration projects

    Gazendam, Ed; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Ackerman, Josef D.; Whiteley, Hugh


    Stream-habitat assessment for evaluation of restoration projects requires the examination of many parameters, both watershed-scale and reach-scale, to incorporate the complex non-linear effects of geomorphic, riparian, watershed and hydrologic factors on aquatic ecosystems. Rapid geomorphic assessment tools used by many jurisdictions to assess natural channel design projects seldom include watershed-level parameters, which have been shown to have a significant effect on benthic habitat in stream systems. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were developed to integrate complex non-linear relationships between the aquatic ecosystem health indices and key watershed-scale and reach-scale parameters. Physical stream parameters, based on QHEI parameters, and watershed characteristics data were collected at 112 sites on 62 stream systems located in Southern Ontario. Benthic data were collected separately and benthic invertebrate summary indices, specifically Hilsenhoff's Biotic Index (HBI) and Richness, were determined. The ANN models were trained on the randomly selected 3/4 of the dataset of 112 streams in Ontario, Canada and validated on the remaining 1/4. The R2 values for the developed ANN model predictions were 0.86 for HBI and 0.92 for Richness. Sensitivity analysis of the trained ANN models revealed that Richness was directly proportional to Erosion and Riparian Width and inversely proportional to Floodplain Quality and Substrate parameters. HBI was directly proportional to Velocity Types and Erosion and inversely proportional to Substrate, % Treed and 1:2 Year Flood Flow parameters. The ANN models can be useful tools for watershed managers in stream assessment and restoration projects by allowing consideration of watershed properties in the stream assessment.

  2. Towards actual brazilian traffic load models for short span highway bridges

    C. E. Rossigali

    Full Text Available New live load models for highway bridge design in Brazil are under development by assembling real traffic database, traffic simulations, analytical-numerical modeling of the dynamic interaction between vehicle and structure and statistical extrapolations. This paper presents and discusses the results obtained in the first stages of this work which includes the comparison between the static effects due to the actual traffic of heavy vehicles and those generated by the live load model given in the current national code NBR 7188. It is demonstrated that this live load model is not appropriate to represent the actual traffic effects and may be, in some cases, non-conservative. The present work deals with short span bridges for two lanes single carriageway under free flow traffic scenarios. The representative static effects in these bridges due to the actual traffic of heavy vehicles are obtained by extrapolating its probability density functions to a certain return period. To this purpose, a traffic database was constructed by gathering data from several weighing stations in Brazilian highways which was then applied to perform traffic simulations through a specially developed computational tool.

  3. Improved 2D Intelligent Driver Model simulating synchronized flow and evolution concavity in traffic flow

    Tian, Junfang; Li, Geng; Treiber, Martin; Zhu, Chenqiang; Jia, Bin


    This paper firstly show that 2 Dimensional Intelligent Driver Model (Jiang et al., PloS one, 9(4), e94351, 2014) is not able to replicate the synchronized traffic flow. Then we propose an improved model by considering the difference between the driving behaviors at high speeds and that at low speeds. Simulations show that the improved model can reproduce the phase transition from synchronized flow to wide moving jams, the spatiotemporal patterns of traffic flow induced by traffic bottleneck, and the evolution concavity of traffic oscillations (i.e. the standard deviation of the velocities of vehicles increases in a concave/linear way along the platoon). Validating results show that the empirical time series of traffic speed obtained from Floating Car Data can be well simulated as well.

  4. A cellular automata traffic flow model considering the heterogeneity of acceleration and delay probability

    Li, Qi-Lang; Wong, S. C.; Min, Jie; Tian, Shuo; Wang, Bing-Hong


    This study examines the cellular automata traffic flow model, which considers the heterogeneity of vehicle acceleration and the delay probability of vehicles. Computer simulations are used to identify three typical phases in the model: free-flow, synchronized flow, and wide moving traffic jam. In the synchronized flow region of the fundamental diagram, the low and high velocity vehicles compete with each other and play an important role in the evolution of the system. The analysis shows that there are two types of bistable phases. However, in the original Nagel and Schreckenberg cellular automata traffic model, there are only two kinds of traffic conditions, namely, free-flow and traffic jams. The synchronized flow phase and bistable phase have not been found.

  5. Traffic chaos and its prediction based on a nonlinear car-following model

    Hui FU; Jianmin XU; Lunhui XU


    This paper discusses the dynamic behavior and its predictions for a simulated traffic flow based on the nonlinear response of a vehicle to the leading car's movement in a single lane.Traffic chaos is a promising field,and chaos theory has been applied to identify and predict its chaotic movement.A simulated traffic flow is generated using a car-following model(GM model),and the distance between two cars is investigated for its dynamic properties.A positive Lyapunov exponent confirms the existence of chaotic behavior in the GM model.A new algorithm using a RBF NN (radial basis function neural network) is proposed to predict this traffic chaos.The experiment shows that the chaotic degree and predictable degree are determined by the first Lyapunov exponent.The algorithm proposed in this paper can be generalized to recognize and predict the chaos of short-time traffic flow series.

  6. A new car-following model with consideration of the traffic interruption probability

    Tang Tie-Qiao; Huang Hai-Jun; Wong S. C.; Jiang Rui


    In this paper, we present a new car-following model by taking into account the effects of the traffic interruption probability on the car-following behaviour of the following vehicle. The stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The modified Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation is constructed and solved, and three types of traffic flows in the headway sensitivity space-stable, metastable, and unstable-are classified. Both the analytical and simulation results show that the traffic interruption probability indeed has an influence on driving behaviour, and the consideration of traffic interruption probability in the car-following model could stabilize traffic flow.

  7. Time Headway Modelling of Motorcycle-Dominated Traffic to Analyse Traffic Safety Performance and Road Link Capacity of Single Carriageways

    D. M. Priyantha Wedagama


    Full Text Available This study aims to develop time headway distribution models to analyse traffic safety performance and road link capacities for motorcycle-dominated traffic in Denpasar, Bali. Three road links selected as the case study are Jl. Hayam Wuruk, Jl.Hang Tuah, and Jl. Padma. Data analysis showed that between 55%-80% of motorists in Denpasar during morning and evening peak hours paid less attention to the safe distance with the vehicles in front. The study found that Lognormal distribution models are best to fit time headway data during morning peak hours while either Weibull (3P or Pearson III distributions is for evening peak hours. Road link capacities for mixed traffic predominantly motorcycles are apparently affected by the behaviour of motorists in keeping safe distance with the vehicles in front. Theoretical road link capacities for Jl. Hayam Wuruk, Jl. Hang Tuah and Jl. Padma are 3,186 vehicles/hour, 3,077 vehicles/hour and 1935 vehicles/hour respectively.




    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to design and implement traffic control system. The system developed is able to sense the presence of vehicles within certain range by setting the appropriate duration for the traffic signals to react accordingly. By employing logical functions to calculate the appropriate timing for the signals toilluminate, the system can help to solve the problem of traffic congestion. The use of FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays is an interesting new phenomenon in VLSI development. FPGAs offer all of thefeatures needed to implement most complex designs. Hardware simulation tests were successfully performed on the algorithm implemented into a FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Arrays. The main object of the paper is to design a Real Time Traffic Light Controller (RTTLC using VHDL and implement the RTTLC in XILINX SPARTAN - 3 FPGA.

  9. Improving the Traffic Model to Be Used in the Optimisation of Mass Transit System Electrical Infrastructure

    Álvaro J. López-López


    Full Text Available Among the different approaches for minimising the energy consumption of mass transit systems (MTSs, a common concern for MTS operators is the improvement of the electrical infrastructure. The traffic on the lines under analysis is one of the most important inputs to the studies devoted to improving MTS infrastructure, since it represents where and how frequently it is possible to save energy. However, on the one hand, MTS electrical studies usually simplify the traffic model, which may lead to a misrepresentation of the energy interactions between trains. On the other hand, if the stochastic traffic is rigorously modelled, the size of the simulation problem could grow excessively, which in turn could make the time to obtain results unmanageable. To cope with this issue, this paper presents a method to obtain a reduced-size set of representative scenarios. Firstly, a traffic model including the most representative stochastic traffic variables is developed. Secondly, a function highly correlated with energy savings is proposed to make it possible to properly characterise the traffic scenarios. Finally, this function is used to select the most representative scenarios. The representative scenario set obtained by the application of this method is shown to be sufficiently accurate with a limited number of scenarios. The traffic approach in this paper improves the accuracy with respect to the usual traffic approach used in the literature.

  10. STREAM: Static Thermodynamic REgulAtory Model of transcription.

    Bauer, Denis C; Bailey, Timothy L


    Understanding the transcriptional regulation of a gene in detail is a crucial step towards uncovering and ultimately utilizing the regulatory grammar of the genome. Modeling transcriptional regulation using thermodynamic equations has become an increasingly important approach towards this goal. Here, we present stream, the first publicly available framework for modeling, visualizing and predicting the regulation of the transcription rate of a target gene. Given the concentrations of a set of transcription factors (TFs), the TF binding sites (TFBSs) in a regulatory DNA region, and the transcription rate of the target gene, stream will optimize its parameters to generate a model that best fits the input data. This trained model can then be used to (a) validate that the given set of TFs is able to regulate the target gene and (b) to predict the transcription rate under different conditions (e.g. different tissues, knockout/additional TFs or mutated/missing TFBSs). The platform independent executable of stream, as well as a tutorial and the full documentation, are available at stream requires Java version 5 or higher.

  11. An improved cellular automaton model considering the effect of traffic lights and driving behaviour

    He Hong-Di; Lu Wei-Zhen; Dong Li-Yun


    This paper proposes an improved cellular automaton model to describe the urban traffic flow with the consideration of traffic light and driving behaviour effects. Based on the model, the characteristics of the urban traffic flow on a singlelane road are investigated under three different control strategies, i.e., the synchronized, the green wave and the random strategies. The fundamental diagrams and time-space patterns of the traffic flows are provided for these strategies respectively. It finds that the dynamical transition to the congested flow appears when the vehicle density is higher than a critical level. The saturated flow is less dependent on the cycle time and the strategies of the traffic light control,while the critical vehicle density varies with the cycle time and the strategies. Simulated results indicate that the green wave strategy is proven to be the most effective one among the above three control strategies.

  12. An improved cellular automaton model considering the effect of traffic lights and driving behaviour

    He, Hong-Di; Lu, Wei-Zhen; Dong, Li-Yun


    This paper proposes an improved cellular automaton model to describe the urban traffic flow with the consideration of traffic light and driving behaviour effects. Based on the model, the characteristics of the urban traffic flow on a single-lane road are investigated under three different control strategies, i.e., the synchronized, the green wave and the random strategies. The fundamental diagrams and time-space patterns of the traffic flows are provided for these strategies respectively. It finds that the dynamical transition to the congested flow appears when the vehicle density is higher than a critical level. The saturated flow is less dependent on the cycle time and the strategies of the traffic light control, while the critical vehicle density varies with the cycle time and the strategies. Simulated results indicate that the green wave strategy is proven to be the most effective one among the above three control strategies.

  13. A Traffic Information Estimation Model Using Periodic Location Update Events from Cellular Network

    Lin, Bon-Yeh; Chen, Chi-Hua; Lo, Chi-Chun

    In recent years considerable concerns have arisen over building Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) which focuses on efficiently managing the road network. One of the important purposes of ITS is to improve the usability of transportation resources so as extend the durability of vehicle, reduce the fuel consumption and transportation times. Before this goal can be achieved, it is vital to obtain correct and real-time traffic information, so that traffic information services can be provided in a timely and effective manner. Using Mobile Stations (MS) as probe to tracking the vehicle movement is a low cost and immediately solution to obtain the real-time traffic information. In this paper, we propose a model to analyze the relation between the amount of Periodic Location Update (PLU) events and traffic density. Finally, the numerical analysis shows that this model is feasible to estimate the traffic density.

  14. Effects of Bottlenecks in Vehicle Traffic

    Yamamoto, S; Tadaki, S; Yamamoto, Syohei; Hieida, Yasuhiro; Tadaki, Shin-ichi


    Traffic congestion is usually observed at the upper streams of bottlenecks like tunnels. Congestion appears as stop-and-go waves and high density uniform flow. We perform simulations of traffic flow with a bottleneck using the coupled map optimal velocity model. The bottleneck is expressed as a road segment with speed reduction. The emergence of stop-and-go waves depends on the speed reduction in the bottleneck. A phenomenological theory of bottleneck effects is constructed.

  15. Proportional-differential effects in traffic car-following model system

    Zhang, Li-Dong; Zhu, Wen-Xing; Liu, Jian-lei


    Traffic flow system's stability analysis can be seen as a typical control system problem, which has three kinds of damping ratio properties from the viewpoint of control theory. To discover the damping ratio characteristics of traffic flow system under sudden outer impulse, firstly, we proposed a new method to build the traffic flow model based on state space theory. Secondly, we deduced one form of state transfer matrix from system closed-loop transfer function reversely. Lastly, we fully investigated the proportional-differential effects in the traffic car-following model system analytically and numerically. For unsteady traffic flow system with the proportional-differential (PD) term, in order to suppress the traffic jam, we derived a kind of decoupled delay-feedback control algorithm, which used H∞-norm and the numerical simulation method to find the feedback gain k and delay time τ. The traffic flow system's transient performance formula was presented with and without PD term, and we found out the important impact of PD term on traffic flow system' stability. The numerical simulation results substantiate our theoretical and analytical results.

  16. Cellular automata model for urban road traffic flow considering pedestrian crossing street

    Zhao, Han-Tao; Yang, Shuo; Chen, Xiao-Xu


    In order to analyze the effect of pedestrians' crossing street on vehicle flows, we investigated traffic characteristics of vehicles and pedestrians. Based on that, rules of lane changing, acceleration, deceleration, randomization and update are modified. Then we established two urban two-lane cellular automata models of traffic flow, one of which is about sections with non-signalized crosswalk and the other is on uncontrolled sections with pedestrians crossing street at random. MATLAB is used for numerical simulation of the different traffic conditions; meanwhile space-time diagram and relational graphs of traffic flow parameters are generated and then comparatively analyzed. Simulation results indicate that when vehicle density is lower than around 25 vehs/(km lane), pedestrians have modest impact on traffic flow, whereas when vehicle density is higher than about 60 vehs/(km lane), traffic speed and volume will decrease significantly especially on sections with non-signal-controlled crosswalk. The results illustrate that the proposed models reconstruct the traffic flow's characteristic with the situation where there are pedestrians crossing and can provide some practical reference for urban traffic management.

  17. Density waves in a lattice hydrodynamic traffic flow model with the anticipation effect

    Zhao Min; Sun Di-Hua; Tian Chuan


    By introducing the traffic anticipation effect in the real world into the original lattice hydrodynamic model,we present a new anticipation effect lattice hydrodynamic (AELH) model,and obtain the linear stability condition of the model by applying the linear stability theory.Through nonlinear analysis,we derive the Burgers equation and Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation,to describe the propagating behaviour of traffic density waves in the stable and the metastable regions,respectively.The good agreement between simulation results and analytical results shows that the stability of traffic flow can be enhanced when the anticipation effect is considered.

  18. Optimization model and algorithm for mixed traffic of urban road network with flow interference

    SI BingFeng; LONG JianCeng; GAO ZiYou


    In this paper, the problem of interferences between motors and non-motors in ur-ban road mixed traffic network is considered and the corresponding link imped-ance function is presented based on travel demand, On the base of this, the main factors that influence travelers' traffic choices are all considered and a combined model including flow-split and assignment problem is proposed, Then a bi-level model with its algorithm for system optimization of urban road mixed traffic net-work is proposed. Finally the application of the model and its algorithm is illus-trated with a numerical example.

  19. Network transmission model: A dynamic traffic model at network level (poster)

    Knoop, V.L.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    New IT techniques allow communication and coordination between traffic measures. To best use this, one needs to coordinate over longer distances. Optimization of the measures is not possible using traditional microscopic or macroscopic simulation models. The Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD) describ

  20. An Improved Car-Following Model for Multiphase Vehicular Traffic Flow and Numerical Tests

    Li, Zhi-Peng; Gong, Xiao-Bo; Liu, Yun-Cai


    This paper attempts to introduce an improved difference model that modifies a car-following model, which takes the next-nearest-neighbor interaction into account. The improvement of this model over the previous one lies in that it performs more realistically in the dynamical motion for small delay time. The traffic behavior of the improved model is investigated with analytic and numerical methods with the finding that the new consideration could further stabilize traffic flow. And some simulation tests verify that the proposed model can demonstrate some complex physical features observed recently in real traffic such as the existence of three phases: free flow, coexisting flow, and jam flow; spontaneous formation of density waves; sudden flow drop in flow-density plane; traffic hysteresis in transition between the free and the coexisting flow. Furthermore, the improved model also predicts that the stable state to relative density in the coexisting flow is insusceptible to noise.

  1. Forecasting mortality of road traffic injuries in China using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model.

    Zhang, Xujun; Pang, Yuanyuan; Cui, Mengjing; Stallones, Lorann; Xiang, Huiyun


    Road traffic injuries have become a major public health problem in China. This study aimed to develop statistical models for predicting road traffic deaths and to analyze seasonality of deaths in China. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to fit the data from 2000 to 2011. Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and mean absolute percentage error were used to evaluate the constructed models. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of residuals and Ljung-Box test were used to compare the goodness-of-fit between the different models. The SARIMA model was used to forecast monthly road traffic deaths in 2012. The seasonal pattern of road traffic mortality data was statistically significant in China. SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model was the best fitting model among various candidate models; the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and mean absolute percentage error were -483.679, -475.053, and 4.937, respectively. Goodness-of-fit testing showed nonautocorrelations in the residuals of the model (Ljung-Box test, Q = 4.86, P = .993). The fitted deaths using the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model for years 2000 to 2011 closely followed the observed number of road traffic deaths for the same years. The predicted and observed deaths were also very close for 2012. This study suggests that accurate forecasting of road traffic death incidence is possible using SARIMA model. The SARIMA model applied to historical road traffic deaths data could provide important evidence of burden of road traffic injuries in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Examination of a Theoretical Model of Streaming Potential Coupling Coefficient

    D. T. Luong


    Full Text Available Seismoelectric effects and streaming potentials play an important role in geophysical applications. The key parameter for those phenomena is the streaming potential coupling coefficient, which is, for example, dependent on the zeta potential of the interface of the porous rocks. Comparison of an existing theoretical model to experimental data sets from available published data for streaming potentials has been performed. However, the existing experimental data sets are based on samples with dissimilar fluid conductivity, pH of pore fluid, temperature, and sample compositions. All those dissimilarities may cause the observed deviations. To critically assess the models, we have carried out streaming potential measurement as a function of electrolyte concentration and temperature for a set of well-defined consolidated samples. The results show that the existing theoretical model is not in good agreement with the experimental observations when varying the electrolyte concentration, especially at low electrolyte concentration. However, if we use a modified model in which the zeta potential is considered to be constant over the electrolyte concentration, the model fits the experimental data well in a whole range of concentration. Also, for temperature dependence, the comparison shows that the theoretical model is not fully adequate to describe the experimental data but does describe correctly the increasing trend of the coupling coefficient as function of temperature.

  3. An Improved Car-Following Model for Multiphase Vehicular Traffic Flow and Numerical Tests

    LI Zhi-Peng; GONG Xiao-Bo; LIU Yun-Cai


    This paper attempts to introduce an improved difference model that modifies a car-following model, which takes the next-nearest-neighbor interaction into account. The improvement of this modelover the previous one lies in that it performs more realistically in the dynamical motion for small delay time. The traffic behavior of the improved model is investigated with analytic and numerical methods with the finding that the new consideration could further stabilize traffic flow. And some simulation tests verify that the proposed model can demonstrate some complex physical features observed recently in real traffic such as the existence of three phases: free flow, coexisting flow, and jam flow;spontaneous formation of density waves; sudden flow drop in flow-density plane; traffic hysteresis in transition between the free and the coexisting flow. Furthermore, the improved model also predicts that the stable state to relative density in the coexisting flow is insusceptible to noise.

  4. Traffic Route Modelling and Assignment with Intelligent Transport System

    Kunicina Nadezhda


    Full Text Available The development of signal transmitting environment for multimodal traffic control will enhance the integration of emergency and specialized transport routing tools in usual traffic control paradigms - it is one of the opportunities offered by modern intelligent traffic control systems. The improvement of effective electric power use in public transport system is an advantage of Intelligent Transport System (ITS. The research is connected with the improvement of on-line traffic control and adaptation of special traffic lighting alternatives by ITS. The assignment of the nearest appropriate transport will be done by passenger request, but unlike information system, the transport planning is done on demand. The task can be solved with the help of modern technical methods and equipment, as well as by applying control paradigms of the distributed systems. The problem is solved with the help of calculations hyper-graph and scheduling theory. The goal of the research is to develop methods, which support scheduling of the emergency transport, using high performance computing.

  5. Feedback control scheme of traffic jams based on the coupled map car-following model

    Zhou, Tong; Sun, Di-Hua; Zhao, Min; Li, Hua-Min


    Based on the pioneering work of Konishi et al. [Phys. Rev. E (1999) 60 4000], a new feedback control scheme is presented to suppress traffic jams based on the coupled map car-following model under the open boundary condition. The effect of the safe headway on the traffic system is considered. According to the control theory, the condition under which traffic jams can be suppressed is analyzed. The results are compared with the previous results concerning congestion control. The simulations show that the suppression performance of our scheme on traffic jams is better than those of the previous schemes, although all the schemes can suppress traffic jams. The simulation results are consistent with theoretical analyses.

  6. Small-time scale network traffic prediction based on a local support vector machine regression model

    Meng Qing-Fang; Chen Yue-Hui; Peng Yu-Hua


    In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the reconstructed phase space, the local support vector machine prediction method is used to predict the traffic measurement data, and the BIC-based neighbouring point selection method is used to choose the number of the nearest neighbouring points for the local support vector machine regression model. The experimental results show that the local support vector machine prediction method whose neighbouring points are optimized can effectively predict the small-time scale traffic measurement data and can reproduce the statistical features of real traffic measurements.


    Zhang Dandan; Fang Xuming; Zhu Longjie


    As the radio spectrum is a very scarce resource, the Call Admission Control (CAC) is one of the most important parts in radio resource management. The Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA)based next generation wireless communications systems will support the transmission of multimedia traffic, such as voice, video and data, thus the CAC, which can support the multimedia traffic and guarantee the Quality of Service (QoS) of different traffic, has gained broad attention. In this paper, a novel multimedia traffic modeling method and a corresponding dynamic QoS based CAC are proposed.The analysis and simulation results show that the proposed CAC scheme can guarantee the QoS to different traffic demand, and improve the system performance significantly.

  8. Road-traffic pollution and asthma – using modelled exposure assessment for routine public health surveillance

    Daly Mark


    Full Text Available Abstract Asthma is a common disease and appears to be increasing in prevalence. There is evidence linking air pollution, including that from road-traffic, with asthma. Road traffic is also on the increase. Routine surveillance of the impact of road-traffic pollution on asthma, and other diseases, would be useful in informing local and national government policy in terms of managing the environmental health risk. Several methods for exposure assessment have been used in studies examining the association between asthma and road traffic pollution. These include comparing asthma prevalence in areas designated as high and low pollution areas, using distance from main roads as a proxy for exposure to road traffic pollution, using traffic counts to estimate exposure, using vehicular miles travelled and using modelling techniques. Although there are limitations to all these methods, the modelling approach has the advantage of incorporating several variables and may be used for prospective health impact assessment. The modelling approach is already in routine use in the United Kingdom in support of the government's strategy for air quality management. Combining information from such models with routinely collected health data would form the basis of a routine public health surveillance system. Such a system would facilitate prospective health impact assessment, enabling policy decisions concerned with road-traffic to be made with knowledge of the potential implications. It would also allow systematic monitoring of the health impacts when the policy decisions and plans have been implemented.

  9. Short-term traffic safety forecasting using Gaussian mixture model and Kalman filter

    Sheng JIN; Dian-hai WANG; Cheng XU; Dong-fang MA


    In this paper; a prediction model is developed that combines a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and a Kalman filter for online forecasting of traffic safety on expressways.Raw time-to-collision (TTC) samples are divided into two categories:those representing vehicles in risky situations and those in safe situations.Then,the GMM is used to model the bimodal distribution of the TTC samples,and the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation parameters of the TTC distribution are obtained using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm.We propose a new traffic safety indicator,named the proportion of exposure to traffic conflicts (PETTC),for assessing the risk and predicting the safety of expressway traffic.A Kalman filter is applied to forecast the short-term safety indicator,PETTC,and solves the online safety prediction problem.A dataset collected from four different expressway locations is used for performance estimation.The test results demonstrate the precision and robustness of the prediction model under different traffic conditions and using different datasets.These results could help decision-makers to improve their online traffic safety forecasting and enable the optimal operation of expressway traffic management systems.

  10. Bifurcations and multiple traffic jams in a car-following model with reaction-time delay

    Orosz, Gábor; Krauskopf, Bernd; Wilson, R. Eddie


    We investigate an optimal velocity car-following model for n cars on a circular single-lane road, where reaction-time delay of drivers is taken into account. The stability of the uniform flow equilibrium is studied analytically, while bifurcating periodic solutions for different wave numbers are investigated with numerical continuation techniques. This reveals that the periodic solution with the smallest wave number may be stable, and all other periodic solutions are unstable. As n is increased, periodic solutions develop stop- and go-fronts that correspond to rapid deceleration and acceleration between regions of uniformly flowing and stagnant traffic. In terms of the positions of all cars on the ring these fronts are associated with traffic jams. All traffic jams form a traffic pattern that evolves under time, due to slow motion of the fronts. The traffic pattern corresponding to the stable periodic motion of cars is the only stable one. However, we find that other periodic orbits may be unstable only so weakly that they give rise to transient traffic jams that may persist for long times. Eventually, such traffic jams either merge with one another or disperse, until the stable traffic pattern is reached.

  11. Effect of looking backward on traffic flow in a cooperative driving car following model

    Ge, H. X.; Zhu, H. B.; Dai, S. Q.


    An extended car following model is proposed by incorporating intelligent transportation system and the backward looking effect under certain condition in traffic flow. The neutral stability condition of this model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The results show that anticipating the behavior of vehicles preceding and following one vehicle could lead to appreciable stabilization of traffic system. From the simulation of space-time evolution of the vehicle headways, it is shown that the traffic jam could be suppressed efficiently via taking into account the information about the motion of two preceding vehicles and one following vehicle, and the analytical result is consistent with the simulation one.

  12. Scalar conservation laws with moving constraints arising in traffic flow modeling: An existence result

    Delle Monache, M. L.; Goatin, P.


    We consider a strongly coupled PDE-ODE system that describes the influence of a slow and large vehicle on road traffic. The model consists of a scalar conservation law accounting for the main traffic evolution, while the trajectory of the slower vehicle is given by an ODE depending on the downstream traffic density. The moving constraint is expressed by an inequality on the flux, which models the bottleneck created in the road by the presence of the slower vehicle. We prove the existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem for initial data of bounded variation.

  13. A new lattice hydrodynamic traffic flow model with a consideration of multi-anticipation effect

    Tian Chuan; Sun Di-Hua; Yang Shu-Hong


    We present a new multi-anticipation lattice hydrodynamic model based on the traffic anticipation effect in the real world.Applying the linear stability theory,we obtain the linear stability condition of the model.Through nonlinear analysis,we derive the modified Korteweg-de Vries equation to describe the propagating behaviour of a traffic density wave near the critical point.The good agreement between the simulation results and the analytical results shows that the stability of traffic flow can be enhanced when the multi-anticipation effect is considered.

  14. A new lattice model of traffic flow with the consideration of the drivers' aggressive characteristics

    Li, Xiaoqin; Fang, Kangling; Peng, Guanghan


    In real traffic, aggressive driving behaviors often occurs by anticipating the front density of the next-nearest lattice site at next time step to adjust their acceleration in advance. Therefore, a new lattice model is put forward by considering the driver's aggressive effect (DAE). The linear stability condition is derived from the linear stability theory and the modified KdV equation near the critical point is obtained through nonlinear analysis with the consideration of aggressive driving behaviors, respectively. Both the analytical results and numerical simulation indicate that the driver's aggressive effect can increase the traffic stability. Thus driver's aggressive effect should be considered in traffic lattice model.

  15. Disaggregate Traffic Mode Choice Model Based on Combination of Revealed and Stated Preference Data

    JIAO Pengpeng; LU Huapu; YANG Lang


    The conventional traffic demand forecasting methods based on revealed preference (RP) data are not able to predict the modal split. Passengers' stated intentions are indispensable for modal split forecasting and evaluation of new traffic modes. This paper analyzed the biases and errors included in stated preference data, put forward the new stochastic utility functions, and proposed an unbiased disaggregate model and its approximate model based on the combination of RP and stated preference (SP) data, with analysis of the parameter estimation algorithm. The model was also used to forecast rail transit passenger volumes to the Beijing Capital International Airport and the shift ratios from current traffic modes to rail transit. Experimental results show that the model can greatly increase forecasting accuracy of the modal split ratio of current traffic modes and can accurately forecast the shift ratios from current modes to the new mode.

  16. Analysis of Stability for Gas-Kinetic Non-Local Traffic Model

    SUN Xi-Ming; DONG Yu-Jie


    @@ The gas-kinetic non-local traffic model is improved by taking into account the relative velocity of the correlated vehicles. The stability of different relaxation time modes is analytically investigated with the perturbation method.

  17. Reverse stream flow routing by using Muskingum models

    Amlan Das


    Reverse stream flow routing is a procedure that determines the upstream hydrograph given the downstream hydrograph. This paper presents the development of methodology for Muskingum models parameter estimation for reverse stream flow routing. The standard application of the Muskingum models involves calibration and prediction steps. The calibration step must be performed before the prediction step. The calibration step in a reverse stream flow routing system uses the outflow hydrograph and the inflow at the end period of the inflow hydrograph as the known inputs and Muskingum model parameters are determined by minimizing the error between the remaining portion of the predicted and observed inflow hydrographs. In the present study, methodology for parameter estimation is developed which is based on the concept of minimizing the sum of squares of normalized difference between observed and computed inflows subject to the satisfaction of the routing equation. The parameter estimation problems are formulated as constrained nonlinear optimization problem, and a computational scheme is developed to solve the resulting nonlinear problem. The performance evaluation tests indicate that a fresh calibration is necessary to use the Muskingum models for reverse stream flow routing.

  18. Mixed Monotonicity of Partial First-In-First-Out Traffic Flow Models

    Coogan, Samuel; Arcak, Murat; Kurzhanskiy, Alexander A.


    In vehicle traffic networks, congestion on one outgoing link of a diverging junction often impedes flow to other outgoing links, a phenomenon known as the first-in-first-out (FIFO) property. Simplified traffic models that do not account for the FIFO property result in monotone dynamics for which powerful analysis techniques exist. FIFO models are in general not monotone, but have been shown to be mixed monotone - a generalization of monotonicity that enables similarly powerful analysis techni...

  19. Traffic Assignment Forecast Model Research in ITS%智能交通系统中交通量分配预测模型的研究

    王伟; 王泉; 王超


    As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast model, multi-ways probability and capacity constraint (MPCC) is presented. Using the new traffic assignment forecast model to forecast the traffic volume will improve the rationality and veracity of traffic assignment forecast.

  20. Bivariate functional data clustering: grouping streams based on a varying coefficient model of the stream water and air temperature relationship

    H. Li; X. Deng; Andy Dolloff; E. P. Smith


    A novel clustering method for bivariate functional data is proposed to group streams based on their water–air temperature relationship. A distance measure is developed for bivariate curves by using a time-varying coefficient model and a weighting scheme. This distance is also adjusted by spatial correlation of streams via the variogram. Therefore, the proposed...

  1. Model based monitoring for industrial and traffic noise control

    Eerden, F.J.M. van der; Binnerts, B.; Graafland, F.


    Noise control starts by understanding the actual noise situation. Especially for situations where the distance between industrial and traffic noise sources and a local community is in the order of one kilometer or more, it may not be clear what sources are the main contributors to annoyance. Then a

  2. Consequence modelling of gas explosion scenarios in traffic tunnels

    Weerheijm, J.; Berg, A.C. van den; Rhijnsburger, M.P.M.; Doormaal, J.C.A.M. van


    In the Netherlands, future road and rail infrastructure is increasingly projected underground or covered in. In this respect, a particular problem shows up with regard to the transportation hazardous materials, witness the many recent severe accidents in European traffic tunnels. Within the entire s

  3. Traffic load model based on weigh in motion measurements

    Steenbergen, R.D.J.M.; Morales Napoles, O.


    The assessment of the structural safety of existing bridges and viaducts becomes increasingly important in many countries. Within the actions applied to the bridges, the traffic load is, in general, the most significant variable action to be considered when the ultimate limit states are under

  4. A model based wireless monitoring approach for traffic noise

    Wessels, P.W.; Basten, T.G.H.; Eerden, F.J.M. van der


    In order to have a good understanding of the environmental acoustic effects of traffic it is important to perform long term monitoring within large areas. With traditional monitoring approaches this is quite unfeasible and the costs are relatively high. Within TNO a new wireless monitoring approach

  5. Consequence modelling of gas explosion scenarios in traffic tunnels

    Weerheijm, J.; Berg, A.C. van den; Rhijnsburger, M.P.M.; Doormaal, J.C.A.M. van


    In the Netherlands, future road and rail infrastructure is increasingly projected underground or covered in. In this respect, a particular problem shows up with regard to the transportation hazardous materials, witness the many recent severe accidents in European traffic tunnels. Within the entire s

  6. Predictive modelling of running and dwell times in railway traffic

    Kecman, P.; Goverde, R.M.P.


    Accurate estimation of running and dwell times is important for all levels of planning and control of railway traffic. The availability of historical track occupation data with a high degree of granularity inspired a data-driven approach for estimating these process times. In this paper we present

  7. A Study on the Model of Traffic Flow and Vehicle Exhaust Emission

    Han Xue


    Full Text Available The increase of traffic flow in cities causes traffic congestion and accidents as well as air pollution. Traffic problems have attracted the interest of many researchers from the perspective of theory and engineering. In order to provide a simple and practical method for measuring the exhaust emission and assessing the effect of pollution control, a model is based on the relationship between traffic flow and vehicle exhaust emission under a certain level of road capacity constraints. In the proposed model, the hydrocarbons (HC, carbon monoxide (CO, and nitrogen oxides (NOx are considered as the indexes of total exhaust emission, and the speed is used as an intermediate variable. To verify the rationality and practicality of the model, a case study for Beijing, China, is provided in which the effects of taxi fare regulation and the specific vehicle emission reduction policy are analyzed.

  8. Air quality assessment based on road traffic pollutants dispersion modelling: Giurgiu – Ruse Bridge Case study

    Dragos MIHAI


    Full Text Available The paper presents a case study related to air quality assessment along an important high traffic bridge (Giurgiu - Ruse, by dispersion modelling of the main pollutants. In order to estimate the level of pollution caused by bridge road traffic in the closest urban areas, Giurgiu and Ruse and based on the traffic data, four scenarios for the air quality assessment have been carried out according to different meteorological conditions. The dispersion modeling was realized on specialized environmental pollution software, which features a fully operational Gauss model in its base module. There are presented dispersion maps for the main road traffic pollutants (NOx, CO, SO2, THC, aiming to evaluate their impact on the urban areas vicinity, in four different wind directions scenarios, at a constant temperature. Conclusions are presented according to available European Legislation and future scenarios are proposed, for other different meteorological conditions.

  9. An agent-based model for queue formation of powered two-wheelers in heterogeneous traffic

    Lee, Tzu-Chang; Wong, K. I.


    This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the queue formation of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) in heterogeneous traffic at a signalized intersection. The main novelty is that the proposed interaction rule describing the position choice behavior of PTWs when queuing in heterogeneous traffic can capture the stochastic nature of the decision making process. The interaction rule is formulated as a multinomial logit model, which is calibrated by using a microscopic traffic trajectory dataset obtained from video footage. The ABM is validated against the survey data for the vehicular trajectory patterns, queuing patterns, queue lengths, and discharge rates. The results demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of replicating the observed queue formation process for heterogeneous traffic.

  10. An Improved Modeling for Network Traffic Based on Alpha-Stable Self-similar Processes

    GEXiaohu; ZHUGuangxi; ZHUYaoting


    This paper produces an improved model based on alpha-stable processes. First, this paper introduces the basic of self-similarity, and then the reason why the alpha-stable processes have been used for self-similar network traffic modeling is given out; Second, the research in this field is advanced, and the paper analyzes the drawback of the S4 model, which is supported by the related mathematical proof and confirmations of experiments. In order to make up for the drawback of the S4 model andaccurately describe the varieties of the heavily tailed distributions, an improved network traffic model is proposed. By comparison with simulation data (including the S4 model and the improved model) and actual data, the advantage of the improved model has been demonstrated. In the end, the significance of the self-similar network traffic model has been put forward, and the future work is discussed.

  11. Modeling Mixed Traffic Flow at Crosswalks in Micro-Simulations Using Cellular Automata

    DUAN Houli; ZHANG Yi


    The cellular automata (CA) micro-simulation model was used to describe the behavior of the mixed traffic flows at crosswalks where the pedestrians compete with the vehicles to cross the roadway. The focus of this paper is the behavior of pedestrians and the influence of pedestrians' behavior on the vehicle flow, pedestrian flows, and the vehicle waiting time. The proportion of pedestrians who do not obey traffic laws, the group effect, and expected waiting time of pedestrians, regarded as the most important pedestrian characteristics, are taken into consideration in the analysis. Simulation results show the ability of the microsimulation to capture the most important features of mixed traffic flow.

  12. The effect of interruption probability in lattice model of two-lane traffic flow with passing

    Peng, Guanghan


    A new lattice model is proposed by taking into account the interruption probability with passing for two-lane freeway. The effect of interruption probability with passing is investigated about the linear stability condition and the mKdV equation through linear stability analysis and nonlinear analysis, respectively. Furthermore, numerical simulation is carried out to study traffic phenomena resulted from the interruption probability with passing in two-lane system. The results show that the interruption probability with passing can improve the stability of traffic flow for low reaction coefficient while the interruption probability with passing can destroy the stability of traffic flow for high reaction coefficient on two-lane highway.

  13. Optimized Structure of the Traffic Flow Forecasting Model With a Deep Learning Approach.

    Yang, Hao-Fan; Dillon, Tharam S; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe


    Forecasting accuracy is an important issue for successful intelligent traffic management, especially in the domain of traffic efficiency and congestion reduction. The dawning of the big data era brings opportunities to greatly improve prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel model, stacked autoencoder Levenberg-Marquardt model, which is a type of deep architecture of neural network approach aiming to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed model is designed using the Taguchi method to develop an optimized structure and to learn traffic flow features through layer-by-layer feature granulation with a greedy layerwise unsupervised learning algorithm. It is applied to real-world data collected from the M6 freeway in the U.K. and is compared with three existing traffic predictors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that an optimized structure of the traffic flow forecasting model with a deep learning approach is presented. The evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed model with an optimized structure has superior performance in traffic flow forecasting.

  14. Development of an univariate method for predicting traffic behaviour in wireless networks through statistical models

    Jorge E Salamanca Céspedes


    Full Text Available Today has shown that modern traffic in data networks is highly correlated, making it necessary to select this kind of models that capture autocorrelation characteristics governing data flows surrounding on the network [1]. Being able to perform accurate forecasting of traffic on communication networks, this has great importance at present, since it influences decisions as important such as network sizing and predestination. The main purpose in this paper is to put into context the reader about the importance of statistical models of time series, it enable for estimating future traffic forecasts in modern communications networks, and becomes an essential tool for traffic prediction, This prediction according to the individual needs of each network are listed in estimates with long range dependence (LDR and short-range dependence (SDR, each one providing a specific control, appropriate and efficient integrated at different levels of the network functional hierarchy [2]. But for the traffic forecasts in the modern communication networks must define the type of network to study and time series model that fits the same, which is why you should first select the type of network. For this case study, is a Wi-Fi network as the traffic behavior requires the development of a time series model with advanced statistics, that allows an integrated observing network and thus provide a tool to facilitate the monitoring and management of the same. According to this the type of time series model to use for this case are the ARIMA time series.

  15. Simple cellular automaton model for traffic breakdown, highway capacity, and synchronized flow.

    Kerner, Boris S; Klenov, Sergey L; Schreckenberg, Michael


    We present a simple cellular automaton (CA) model for two-lane roads explaining the physics of traffic breakdown, highway capacity, and synchronized flow. The model consists of the rules "acceleration," "deceleration," "randomization," and "motion" of the Nagel-Schreckenberg CA model as well as "overacceleration through lane changing to the faster lane," "comparison of vehicle gap with the synchronization gap," and "speed adaptation within the synchronization gap" of Kerner's three-phase traffic theory. We show that these few rules of the CA model can appropriately simulate fundamental empirical features of traffic breakdown and highway capacity found in traffic data measured over years in different countries, like characteristics of synchronized flow, the existence of the spontaneous and induced breakdowns at the same bottleneck, and associated probabilistic features of traffic breakdown and highway capacity. Single-vehicle data derived in model simulations show that synchronized flow first occurs and then self-maintains due to a spatiotemporal competition between speed adaptation to a slower speed of the preceding vehicle and passing of this slower vehicle. We find that the application of simple dependences of randomization probability and synchronization gap on driving situation allows us to explain the physics of moving synchronized flow patterns and the pinch effect in synchronized flow as observed in real traffic data.

  16. An extended car-following model with consideration of vehicle to vehicle communication of two conflicting streams

    Zhao, Jing; Li, Peng


    In this paper, we propose a car-following model to explore the influences of V2V communication on the driving behavior at un-signalized intersections with two crossing streams and to explore how the speed guidance strategy affects the operation efficiency. The numerical results illustrate that the benefits of the guidance strategy could be enhanced by lengthening the guiding space range and increasing the maximum speed limitation, and that the guidance strategy is more suitable under low to medium traffic density and small safety interval condition.

  17. Game Theory Model of Traffic Participants within Amber Time at Signalized Intersection

    Weiwei Qi


    Full Text Available The traffic light scheme is composed of red, green, and amber lights, and it has been defined clearly for the traffic access of red and green lights; however, the definition of that for the amber light is indistinct, which leads to the appearance of uncertainty factors and serious traffic conflicts during the amber light. At present, the traffic administrations are faced with the decision of whether to forbid passing or not during the amber light in the cities of China. On one hand, it will go against the purpose of setting amber lights if forbidding passing; on the other hand, it may lead to a mess of traffic flow running if not. And meanwhile the drivers are faced with the decision of passing the intersection or stopping during the amber light as well. So the decision-making behavior of traffic administrations and drivers can be converted into a double game model. And through quantification of their earnings in different choice conditions, the optimum decision-making plan under specific conditions could be solved via the Nash equilibrium solution concept. Thus the results will provide a basis for the formulation of the traffic management strategy.

  18. Game theory model of traffic participants within amber time at signalized intersection.

    Qi, Weiwei; Wen, Huiying; Fu, Chuanyun; Song, Mo


    The traffic light scheme is composed of red, green, and amber lights, and it has been defined clearly for the traffic access of red and green lights; however, the definition of that for the amber light is indistinct, which leads to the appearance of uncertainty factors and serious traffic conflicts during the amber light. At present, the traffic administrations are faced with the decision of whether to forbid passing or not during the amber light in the cities of China. On one hand, it will go against the purpose of setting amber lights if forbidding passing; on the other hand, it may lead to a mess of traffic flow running if not. And meanwhile the drivers are faced with the decision of passing the intersection or stopping during the amber light as well. So the decision-making behavior of traffic administrations and drivers can be converted into a double game model. And through quantification of their earnings in different choice conditions, the optimum decision-making plan under specific conditions could be solved via the Nash equilibrium solution concept. Thus the results will provide a basis for the formulation of the traffic management strategy.

  19. Spatial Copula Model for Imputing Traffic Flow Data from Remote Microwave Sensors.

    Ma, Xiaolei; Luan, Sen; Du, Bowen; Yu, Bin


    Issues of missing data have become increasingly serious with the rapid increase in usage of traffic sensors. Analyses of the Beijing ring expressway have showed that up to 50% of microwave sensors pose missing values. The imputation of missing traffic data must be urgently solved although a precise solution that cannot be easily achieved due to the significant number of missing portions. In this study, copula-based models are proposed for the spatial interpolation of traffic flow from remote traffic microwave sensors. Most existing interpolation methods only rely on covariance functions to depict spatial correlation and are unsuitable for coping with anomalies due to Gaussian consumption. Copula theory overcomes this issue and provides a connection between the correlation function and the marginal distribution function of traffic flow. To validate copula-based models, a comparison with three kriging methods is conducted. Results indicate that copula-based models outperform kriging methods, especially on roads with irregular traffic patterns. Copula-based models demonstrate significant potential to impute missing data in large-scale transportation networks.

  20. Two States CBR Modeling of Data Source in Dynamic Traffic Monitoring Sensor Networks


    Real traffic information was analyzed in the statistical characteristics and approximated as a Gaussian time series. A data source model, called two states constant bit rate (TSCBR), was proposed in dynamic traffic monitoring sensor networks. Analysis of autocorrelation of the models shows that the proposed TSCBR model matches with the statistical characteristics of real data source closely. To further verify the validity of the TSCBR data source model, the performance metrics of power consumption and network lifetime was studied in the evaluation of sensor media access control (SMAC) algorithm. The simulation results show that compared with traditional data source models, TSCBR model can significantly improve accuracy of the algorithm evaluation.

  1. A framework for dynamic traffic diversion during non-recurrent congestion :models and algorithms

    Özbay, Kaan


    Real-time control of traffic diversion during non-recurrent congestion continues to be a challenging topic. Especially, with the advent of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), the need for models and algorithms that will control the diversion in real-time, responding to the current traffic conditions has become evident. Several researchers have tried to solve this on-line control problem by adopting different approaches such as, expert systems, feedback control, and mathem...

  2. A model for the evolution of traffic jams in multi-lane

    Berthelin, Florent


    In [7], Berthelin, Degond, Delitala and Rascle introduced a traffic flow model describing the formation and the dynamics of traffic jams. This model consists of a Pressureless Gas Dynamics system under a maximal constraint on the density and is derived through a singular limit of the Aw-Rascle model. In the present paper we propose an improvement of this model by allowing the road to be multi-lane piecewise. The idea is to use the maximal constraint to modelize the number of lanes. We also add in the model a parameter {\\alpha} which modelize the various speed limitations according to the number of lanes. We present the dynamical behaviour of clusters (traffic jams) and by approximation with such solutions, we obtain an existence result of weak solutions for any initial data.

  3. Monitoring information model for traffic engineering over MPLS VPNs

    Cherkaoui, Omar; Sarrazin, Alain; Francoeur, Guy; Chen, Ken


    Monitoring is the part of Traffic Engineering (TE) that aims at optimizing the use of network resources and assists both in informing the provider and proving to the customer that the service offered respects the SLAs required to optimize the network resources utilization. In this paper, we present a monitoring framework for MPLS-VPN services. We first briefly review MPLS, VPN, NBVPN, Constrained Based Routing to provide a background for the discussion of traffic Engineering. We then discuss the general issues surrounding the design of a MPLS VPN from the point of view of TE and go on to present a management framework that extends the DEN information specific to MPLS VPNs. In this framework, we add policy actions that react dynamically to abnormal results by changing the sampling frequency.

  4. Dynamic Modeling of Internet Traffic for Intrusion Detection

    Jonckheere Edmond


    Full Text Available Computer network traffic is analyzed via mutual information techniques, implemented using linear and nonlinear canonical correlation analyses, with the specific objective of detecting UDP flooding attacks. NS simulation of HTTP, FTP, and CBR traffic shows that flooding attacks are accompanied by a change of mutual information, either at the link being flooded or at another upstream or downstream link. This observation appears to be topology independent, as the technique is demonstrated on the so-called parking-lot topology, random 50-node topology, and 100-node transit-stub topology. This technique is also employed to detect UDP flooding with low false alarm rate on a backbone link. These results indicate that a change in mutual information provides a useful detection criterion when no other signature of the attack is available.

  5. Dynamic Network Traffic Flow Prediction Model based on Modified Quantum-Behaved Particle Swarm Optimization

    Hongying Jin


    Full Text Available This paper aims at effectively predicting the dynamic network traffic flow based on quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization algorithm. Firstly, the dynamic network traffic flow prediction problem is analyzed through formal description. Secondly, the structure of the network traffic flow prediction model is given. In this structure, Users can used a computer to start the traffic flow prediction process, and data collecting module can collect and return the data through the destination device. Thirdly, the dynamic network traffic flow prediction model is implemented based on BP Neural Network. Particularly, in this paper, the BP Neural Network is trained by a modified quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization(QPSO. We modified the QPSO by utilizing chaos signals to implement typical logistic mapping and pursuing the fitness function of a particle by a set of optimal parameters. Afterwards, based on the above process, dynamic network traffic flow prediction model is illustrated. Finally, a series of experiments are conduct to make performance evaluation, and related analyses for experimental results are also given

  6. TRANSIMS traffic flow characteristics

    Nagel, K; Pieck, M; Donnelly, R; Barrett, C L; Nagel, Kai; Stretz, Paula; Pieck, Martin; Donnelly, Rick; Barrett, Christopher L.


    Knowledge of fundamental traffic flow characteristics of traffic simulation models is an essential requirement when using these models for the planning, design, and operation of transportation systems. In this paper we discuss the following: a description of how features relevant to traffic flow are currently under implementation in the TRANSIMS microsimulation, a proposition for standardized traffic flow tests for traffic simulation models, and the results of these tests for two different versions of the TRANSIMS microsimulation.

  7. Computing Strongly Connected Components in the Streaming Model

    Laura, Luigi; Santaroni, Federico

    In this paper we present the first algorithm to compute the Strongly Connected Components of a graph in the datastream model (W-Stream), where the graph is represented by a stream of edges and we are allowed to produce intermediate output streams. The algorithm is simple, effective, and can be implemented with few lines of code: it looks at each edge in the stream, and selects the appropriate action with respect to a tree T, representing the graph connectivity seen so far. We analyze the theoretical properties of the algorithm: correctness, memory occupation (O(n logn)), per item processing time (bounded by the current height of T), and number of passes (bounded by the maximal height of T). We conclude by presenting a brief experimental evaluation of the algorithm against massive synthetic and real graphs that confirms its effectiveness: with graphs with up to 100M nodes and 4G edges, only few passes are needed, and millions of edges per second are processed.

  8. Do Stochastic Traffic Assignment Models Consider Differences in Road Users Utility Functions?

    Nielsen, Otto Anker


    The early stochastic traffic assignment models (e.g. Dial, 1971) build on the assump-tion that different routes are independent (the logit-model concept). Thus, the models gave severe problems in networks with overlapping routes. Daganzo & Sheffi (1977) suggested to use probit based models...

  9. The Copenhagen Traffic Model and its Application in the Metro City Ring Project

    Vuk, Goran; Overgård, Christian Hansen; Fox, J.


    In June 2007, the Danish Parliament passed an act to finance the construction of the Metro City Ring in Copenhagen. The assessment project is based on the passenger patronage forecasts for 2015 from the Copenhagen traffic model. In this paper we show how the model forecasts for this particular...... infrastructure project can be explained through detailed knowledge of model structure and model validation....

  10. Tuning hydrological models for ecological modeling - improving simulations of low flows critical to stream ecology

    Olsen, Martin; Troldborg, Lars; Boegh, Eva


    The consequences of using simulated discharge from a conventional hydrological model as input in stream physical habitat modelling was investigated using output from the Danish national hydrological model and a physical habitat model of three small streams. It was found that low flow simulation...... errors could have large impact on simulation of physical habitat conditions. If these two models are to be used to assess groundwater abstraction impact on physical habitat conditions the hydrological model should be tuned to the purpose...

  11. Tuning hydrological models for ecological modeling - improving simulations of low flows critical to stream ecology

    Olsen, Martin; Troldborg, Lars; Boegh, Eva;


    The consequences of using simulated discharge from a conventional hydrological model as input in stream physical habitat modelling was investigated using output from the Danish national hydrological model and a physical habitat model of three small streams. It was found that low flow simulation...... errors could have large impact on simulation of physical habitat conditions. If these two models are to be used to assess groundwater abstraction impact on physical habitat conditions the hydrological model should be tuned to the purpose...

  12. Traffic Flow Prediction Model for Large-Scale Road Network Based on Cloud Computing

    Zhaosheng Yang


    Full Text Available To increase the efficiency and precision of large-scale road network traffic flow prediction, a genetic algorithm-support vector machine (GA-SVM model based on cloud computing is proposed in this paper, which is based on the analysis of the characteristics and defects of genetic algorithm and support vector machine. In cloud computing environment, firstly, SVM parameters are optimized by the parallel genetic algorithm, and then this optimized parallel SVM model is used to predict traffic flow. On the basis of the traffic flow data of Haizhu District in Guangzhou City, the proposed model was verified and compared with the serial GA-SVM model and parallel GA-SVM model based on MPI (message passing interface. The results demonstrate that the parallel GA-SVM model based on cloud computing has higher prediction accuracy, shorter running time, and higher speedup.

  13. Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model: Technical Description. 2.0

    Etheridge, Melvin; Plugge, Joana; Retina, Nusrat


    The Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model, Version 2.0 (FAM 2.0), is a discrete event simulation model designed to support analysis of alternative concepts in air traffic management and control. FAM 2.0 was developed by the Logistics Management Institute (LMI) under a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) contract. This document provides a technical description of FAM 2.0 and its computer files to enable the modeler and programmer to make enhancements or modifications to the model. Those interested in a guide for using the model in analysis should consult the companion document, Aircraft/Air Traffic Management Functional Analysis Model, Version 2.0 Users Manual.

  14. Prediction of traffic convective instability with spectral analysis of the Aw–Rascle–Zhang model

    Belletti, Francois, E-mail: [Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of California, Berkeley (United States); Huo, Mandy, E-mail: [Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley (United States); Department of Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley (United States); Litrico, Xavier, E-mail: [LyRE, R& D center of SUEZ environnement, Bordeaux (France); Bayen, Alexandre M., E-mail: [Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of California, Berkeley (United States); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley (United States); Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley (United States)


    Highlights: • We linearize and diagonalize the ARZ model. We give a Froude number for traffic. • Spectral domain transfer functions are derived and decompose the model. • The linearized system is convectively unstable in the free-flow regime. • We conduct experiments with the linearized model on the NGSIM dataset. • We show that the linearization does not destroy the accuracy of the model. - Abstract: This article starts from the classical Aw–Rascle–Zhang (ARZ) model for freeway traffic and develops a spectral analysis of its linearized version. A counterpart to the Froude number in hydrodynamics is defined that enables a classification of the nature of vehicle traffic flow using the explicit solution resulting from the analysis. We prove that our linearization about an equilibrium is stable for congested regimes and unstable otherwise. NGSIM data for congested traffic trajectories is used so as to confront the linearized model's predictions to actual macroscopic behavior of traffic. The model is shown to achieve good accuracy for speed and flow. In particular, it accounts for the advection of oscillations on boundaries into the interior domain where the PDE under study is solved.

  15. Measurements and Modelling of Base Station Power Consumption under Real Traffic Loads

    Goran Petrovic


    Full Text Available Base stations represent the main contributor to the energy consumption of a mobile cellular network. Since traffic load in mobile networks significantly varies during a working or weekend day, it is important to quantify the influence of these variations on the base station power consumption. Therefore, this paper investigates changes in the instantaneous power consumption of GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications and UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System base stations according to their respective traffic load. The real data in terms of the power consumption and traffic load have been obtained from continuous measurements performed on a fully operated base station site. Measurements show the existence of a direct relationship between base station traffic load and power consumption. According to this relationship, we develop a linear power consumption model for base stations of both technologies. This paper also gives an overview of the most important concepts which are being proposed to make cellular networks more energy-efficient.

  16. Feedback control for car following model based on two-lane traffic flow

    Ge, Hong-xia; Meng, Xiang-pei; Zhu, Hui-bing; Li, Zhi-Peng


    In the paper, two-lane traffic flow considering lane changing behaviors has been discussed based on the control theory, and the friction interference which is from the neighbor lane has been taken into account. By using the control method, the stability condition is derived. The feedback signals, which include vehicular information from both lanes, acting on the two-lane traffic system have been introduced into the Full Velocity Difference car-following model. In the end, simulations are conducted to examine the validity and reasonability of the control method. It is proven that lane changing behaviors can aggravate the traffic perturbation. The traffic flow congestion could be suppressed by using the control method and the simulation results are in good agreement with the theoretical analysis.

  17. Finite size scaling analysis on Nagel-Schreckenberg model for traffic flow

    Balouchi, Ashkan; Browne, Dana


    The traffic flow problem as a many-particle non-equilibrium system has caught the interest of physicists for decades. Understanding the traffic flow properties and though obtaining the ability to control the transition from the free-flow phase to the jammed phase plays a critical role in the future world of urging self-driven cars technology. We have studied phase transitions in one-lane traffic flow through the mean velocity, distributions of car spacing, dynamic susceptibility and jam persistence -as candidates for an order parameter- using the Nagel-Schreckenberg model to simulate traffic flow. The length dependent transition has been observed for a range of maximum velocities greater than a certain value. Finite size scaling analysis indicates power-law scaling of these quantities at the onset of the jammed phase.

  18. Effect of optimal estimation of flux difference information on the lattice traffic flow model

    Yang, Shu-hong; Li, Chun-gui; Tang, Xin-lai; Tian, Chuan


    In this paper, a new lattice model is proposed by considering the optimal estimation of flux difference information. The effect of this new consideration upon the stability of traffic flow is examined through linear stability analysis. Furthermore, a modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation near the critical point is constructed and solved by means of nonlinear analysis method, and thus the propagation behavior of traffic jam can be described by the kink-antikink soliton solution of the mKdV equation. Numerical simulation is carried out under periodical condition with results in good agreement with theoretical analysis, therefore, it is verified that the new consideration can enhance the stability of traffic systems and suppress the emergence of traffic jams effectively.

  19. Traffic stability of a car-following model considering driver’s desired velocity

    Zhang, Geng; Sun, Di-Hua; Liu, Wei-Ning; Liu, Hui


    In this paper, a new car-following model is proposed by considering driver’s desired velocity according to Transportation Cyber Physical Systems. The effect of driver’s desired velocity on traffic flow has been investigated through linear stability theory and nonlinear reductive perturbation method. The linear stability condition shows that driver’s desired velocity effect can enlarge the stable region of traffic flow. From nonlinear analysis, the Burgers equation and mKdV equation are derived to describe the evolution properties of traffic density waves in the stable and unstable regions respectively. Numerical simulation is carried out to verify the analytical results, which reveals that traffic congestion can be suppressed efficiently by taking driver’s desired velocity effect into account.

  20. An adaptable neural-network model for recursive nonlinear traffic prediction and modeling of MPEG video sources.

    Doulamis, A D; Doulamis, N D; Kollias, S D


    Multimedia services and especially digital video is expected to be the major traffic component transmitted over communication networks [such as internet protocol (IP)-based networks]. For this reason, traffic characterization and modeling of such services are required for an efficient network operation. The generated models can be used as traffic rate predictors, during the network operation phase (online traffic modeling), or as video generators for estimating the network resources, during the network design phase (offline traffic modeling). In this paper, an adaptable neural-network architecture is proposed covering both cases. The scheme is based on an efficient recursive weight estimation algorithm, which adapts the network response to current conditions. In particular, the algorithm updates the network weights so that 1) the network output, after the adaptation, is approximately equal to current bit rates (current traffic statistics) and 2) a minimal degradation over the obtained network knowledge is provided. It can be shown that the proposed adaptable neural-network architecture simulates a recursive nonlinear autoregressive model (RNAR) similar to the notation used in the linear case. The algorithm presents low computational complexity and high efficiency in tracking traffic rates in contrast to conventional retraining schemes. Furthermore, for the problem of offline traffic modeling, a novel correlation mechanism is proposed for capturing the burstness of the actual MPEG video traffic. The performance of the model is evaluated using several real-life MPEG coded video sources of long duration and compared with other linear/nonlinear techniques used for both cases. The results indicate that the proposed adaptable neural-network architecture presents better performance than other examined techniques.

  1. Stochastic Modelling of Shiroro River Stream flow Process

    Musa, J. J


    Full Text Available Economists, social scientists and engineers provide insights into the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the options for adaptation and mitigation, and yet other scientists, including geographers and biologists, study the impacts of climate change. This project concentrates mainly on the discharge from the Shiroro River. A stochastic approach is presented for modeling a time series by an Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA. The development and use of a stochastic stream flow model involves some basic steps such as obtain stream flow record and other information, Selecting models that best describes the marginal probability distribution of flows. The flow discharge of about 22 years (1990-2011 was gotten from the Meteorological Station at Shiroro and analyzed with three different models namely; Autoregressive (AR model, Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model. The initial model identification is done by using the autocorrelation function (ACF and partial autocorrelation function (PACF. Based on the model analysis and evaluations, proper predictions for the effective usage of the flow from the river for farming activities and generation of power for both industrial and domestic us were made. It also highlights some recommendations to be made to utilize the possible potentials of the river effectively

  2. Modeling stream temperature in the Anthropocene: An earth system modeling approach

    Li, Hong-Yi; Ruby Leung, L.; Tesfa, Teklu; Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; Liu, Ying; Rice, Jennie; Wu, Huan; Yang, Xiaofan


    A new large-scale stream temperature model has been developed within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The model is coupled with the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) that represents river routing and a water management model (WM) that represents the effects of reservoir operations and water withdrawals on flow regulation. The coupled models allow the impacts of reservoir operations and withdrawals on stream temperature to be explicitly represented in a physically based and consistent way. The models have been applied to the Contiguous United States driven by observed meteorological forcing. Including water management in the models improves the agreement between the simulated and observed streamflow at a large number of stream gauge stations. It is then shown that the model is capable of reproducing stream temperature spatiotemporal variation satisfactorily by comparing against the observed data from over 320 USGS stations. Both climate and water management are found to have important influence on the spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature. Furthermore, it is quantitatively estimated that reservoir operation could cool down stream temperature in the summer low-flow season (August-October) by as much as 1˜2°C due to enhanced low-flow conditions, which have important implications to aquatic ecosystems. Sensitivity of the simulated stream temperature to input data and reservoir operation rules used in the WM model motivates future directions to address some limitations in the current modeling framework.

  3. Sensitivity Analysis of Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Traffic Volume Prediction

    Jinxing Shen


    Full Text Available In order to achieve a more accurate and robust traffic volume prediction model, the sensitivity of wavelet neural network model (WNNM is analyzed in this study. Based on real loop detector data which is provided by traffic police detachment of Maanshan, WNNM is discussed with different numbers of input neurons, different number of hidden neurons, and traffic volume for different time intervals. The test results show that the performance of WNNM depends heavily on network parameters and time interval of traffic volume. In addition, the WNNM with 4 input neurons and 6 hidden neurons is the optimal predictor with more accuracy, stability, and adaptability. At the same time, a much better prediction record will be achieved with the time interval of traffic volume are 15 minutes. In addition, the optimized WNNM is compared with the widely used back-propagation neural network (BPNN. The comparison results indicated that WNNM produce much lower values of MAE, MAPE, and VAPE than BPNN, which proves that WNNM performs better on short-term traffic volume prediction.

  4. Modeling impact of storage zones on stream dissolved oxygen

    Chapra, S.C.; Runkel, R.L.


    The Streeter-Phelps dissolved oxygen model is modified to incorporate storage zones. A dimensionless number reflecting enhanced decomposition caused by the increased residence time of the biochemical oxygen demand in the storage zone parameterizes the impact. This result provides a partial explanation for the high decomposition rates observed in shallow streams. An application suggests that the storage zone increases the critical oxygen deficit and moves it closer to the point source. It also indicates that the storage zone should have lower oxygen concentration than the main channel. An analysis of a dimensionless enhancement factor indicates that the biochemical oxygen demand decomposition in small streams could be up to two to three times more than anticipated based on the standard Streeter-Phelps model without storage zones. For larger rivers, enhancements of up to 1.5 could occur.The Streeter-Phelps dissolved oxygen model is modified to incorporate storage zones. A dimensionless number reflecting enhanced decomposition caused by the increased residence time of the biochemical oxygen demand in the storage zone parameterizes the impact. This result provides a partial explanation for the high decomposition rates observed in shallow streams. An application suggests that the storage zone increases the critical oxygen deficit and moves it closer to the point source. It also indicates that the storage zone should have lower oxygen concentration than the main channel. An analysis of a dimensionless enhancement factor indicates that the biochemical oxygen demand decomposition in small streams could be up to two to three times more than anticipated based on the standard Streeter-Phelps model without storage zones. For larger rivers, enhancements of up to 1.5 could occur.

  5. Spatiotemporal Context Awareness for Urban Traffic Modeling and Prediction: Sparse Representation Based Variable Selection.

    Su Yang

    Full Text Available Spatial-temporal correlations among the data play an important role in traffic flow prediction. Correspondingly, traffic modeling and prediction based on big data analytics emerges due to the city-scale interactions among traffic flows. A new methodology based on sparse representation is proposed to reveal the spatial-temporal dependencies among traffic flows so as to simplify the correlations among traffic data for the prediction task at a given sensor. Three important findings are observed in the experiments: (1 Only traffic flows immediately prior to the present time affect the formation of current traffic flows, which implies the possibility to reduce the traditional high-order predictors into an 1-order model. (2 The spatial context relevant to a given prediction task is more complex than what is assumed to exist locally and can spread out to the whole city. (3 The spatial context varies with the target sensor undergoing prediction and enlarges with the increment of time lag for prediction. Because the scope of human mobility is subject to travel time, identifying the varying spatial context against time lag is crucial for prediction. Since sparse representation can capture the varying spatial context to adapt to the prediction task, it outperforms the traditional methods the inputs of which are confined as the data from a fixed number of nearby sensors. As the spatial-temporal context for any prediction task is fully detected from the traffic data in an automated manner, where no additional information regarding network topology is needed, it has good scalability to be applicable to large-scale networks.

  6. Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory

    张亚平; 裴玉龙


    This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.

  7. Remembering what we like: Toward an agent-based model of Web traffic

    Goncalves, Bruno; Ramasco, Jose J; Flammini, Alessandro; Menczer, Filippo


    Analysis of aggregate Web traffic has shown that PageRank is a poor model of how people actually navigate the Web. Using the empirical traffic patterns generated by a thousand users over the course of two months, we characterize the properties of Web traffic that cannot be reproduced by Markovian models, in which destinations are independent of past decisions. In particular, we show that the diversity of sites visited by individual users is smaller and more broadly distributed than predicted by the PageRank model; that link traffic is more broadly distributed than predicted; and that the time between consecutive visits to the same site by a user is less broadly distributed than predicted. To account for these discrepancies, we introduce a more realistic navigation model in which agents maintain individual lists of bookmarks that are used as teleportation targets. The model can also account for branching, a traffic property caused by browser features such as tabs and the back button. The model reproduces aggre...

  8. An Effective Model for Traffic Dynamics and the Nature of the Congested Phase

    Yang, Bo


    A simple algorithm for constructing an effective traffic model is presented. The algorithm uses statistically well-defined quantities extracted from the flow-density plot, and the resulting effective model naturally captures and predicts many quantitative and qualitative empirical features of the highway traffic, especially with the presence of an on-ramp bottleneck. The simplicity of the effective model provides strong evidence that stochasticity, diversity of vehicle types and modeling of complicated driving behaviors are \\emph{not} fundamental to many observations in the complex real traffic dynamics. We also propose the nature of the congested phase can be well characterized by the long lasting transient states of the effective model, from which the wide moving jams evolve.

  9. A traffic flow cellular automaton model to considering drivers' learning and forgetting behaviour

    Ding Jian-Xun; Huang Hai-Jun; Tian Qiong


    It is known that the commonly used NaSch cellular automaton (CA) model and its modifications can help explain the internal causes of the macro phenomena of traffic flow. However, the randomization probability of vehicle velocity used in these models is assumed to be an exogenous constant or a conditional constant, which cannot reflect the learning and forgetting behaviour of drivers with historical experiences. This paper further modifies the NaSch model by enabling the randomization probability to be adjusted on the bases of drivers' memory. The Markov properties of this modified model are discussed. Analytical and simulation results show that the traffic fundamental diagrams can be indeed improved when considering drivers' intelligent behaviour. Some new features of traffic are revealed by differently combining the model parameters representing learning and forgetting behaviour.

  10. Modeling variability and trends in pesticide concentrations in streams

    Vecchia, A.V.; Martin, J.D.; Gilliom, R.J.


    A parametric regression model was developed for assessing the variability and long-term trends in pesticide concentrations in streams. The dependent variable is the logarithm of pesticide concentration and the explanatory variables are a seasonal wave, which represents the seasonal variability of concentration in response to seasonal application rates; a streamflow anomaly, which is the deviation of concurrent daily streamflow from average conditions for the previous 30 days; and a trend, which represents long-term (inter-annual) changes in concentration. Application of the model to selected herbicides and insecticides in four diverse streams indicated the model is robust with respect to pesticide type, stream location, and the degree of censoring (proportion of nondetections). An automatic model fitting and selection procedure for the seasonal wave and trend components was found to perform well for the datasets analyzed. Artificial censoring scenarios were used in a Monte Carlo simulation analysis to show that the fitted trends were unbiased and the approximate p-values were accurate for as few as 10 uncensored concentrations during a three-year period, assuming a sampling frequency of 15 samples per year. Trend estimates for the full model were compared with a model without the streamflow anomaly and a model in which the seasonality was modeled using standard trigonometric functions, rather than seasonal application rates. Exclusion of the streamflow anomaly resulted in substantial increases in the mean-squared error and decreases in power for detecting trends. Incorrectly modeling the seasonal structure of the concentration data resulted in substantial estimation bias and moderate increases in mean-squared error and decreases in power. ?? 2008 American Water Resources Association.

  11. Derivation, calibration and verification of macroscopic model for urban traffic flow. Part 2

    Alekseenko, Andrey E; Kholodov, Aleksandr S; Goreva, Anna I; Kurzhanskiy, Alexander A; Chehovich, Yuriy V; Starozhilets, Vsevolod M


    In this paper, we propose a unified procedure for calibration of macroscopic second-order multilane traffic models. The focus is on calibrating the fundamental diagram using the combination stationary detector data and GPS traces. GPS traces are used in estimation of the deceleration wave speed. Thus calibrated model adequately represents the three phases of traffic: free flow, synchronized flow and the wide moving jam. The proposed approach was validated in simulation using stationary detection data and GPS traces from the Moscow Ring Road. Simulation showed that the proposed second-order model is more accurate than the first-order LWR model.

  12. How useful are stream level observations for model calibration?

    Seibert, Jan; Vis, Marc; Pool, Sandra


    Streamflow estimation in ungauged basins is especially challenging in data-scarce regions and it might be reasonable to take at least a few measurements. Recent studies demonstrated that few streamflow measurements, representing data that could be measured with limited efforts in an ungauged basin, might be needed to constrain runoff models for simulations in ungauged basins. While in these previous studies we assumed that few streamflow measurements were taken during different points in time over one year, obviously it would be reasonable to (also) measure stream levels. Several approaches could be used in practice for such stream level observations: water level loggers have become less expensive and easier to install and can be used to obtain continuous stream level time series; stream levels will in the near future be increasingly available from satellite remote sensing resulting in evenly space time series; community-based approaches (e.g.,, finally, can offer level observations at irregular time intervals. Here we present a study where a catchment runoff model (the HBV model) was calibrated for gauged basins in Switzerland assuming that only a subset of the data was available. We pretended that only stream level observations at different time intervals, representing the temporal resolution of the different observation approaches mentioned before, and a small number of streamflow observations were available. The model, which was calibrated based on these data subsets, was then evaluated on the full observed streamflow record. Our results indicate that streamlevel data alone already can provide surprisingly good model simulation results, which can be further improved by the combination with one streamflow observation. The surprisingly good results with only streamlevel time series can be explained by the relatively high precipitation in the studied catchments. Constructing a hypothetical catchment with reduced precipitation resulted in poorer


    董力耘; 薛郁; 戴世强


    An improved one-dimensional CA (Cellular Automaton) traffic model was proposed to describe the highway traffic under the periodic boundary conditions. This model was based on the idea of the car-following model, which claims that the motion of a vehicle at one time step depends on both its headway and the synchronous motion of the front vehicle,thus including indirectly the influence of its sub-neighboring vehicle. In addition, the socalled safety distance was introduced to consider the deceleration behavior of vehicles and the stochastic factor was taken into account by introducing the deceleration probability.Meanwhile, the conditional deceleration in the model gives a better description of the phenomena observed on highways. It is found that there exists the metastability and hysteresis effect of traffic flow in the neighborhood of critical density under different initial conditions.Since this model gives a reasonable depiction of the motion of a single vehicle, it is easy to be extended to the case of traffic flow under the control of traffic lights in cities.

  14. Enhanced Intelligent Driver Model to Access the Impact of Driving Strategies on Traffic Capacity

    Kesting, Arne; Helbing, Dirk


    With an increasing number of vehicles equipped with adaptive cruise control (ACC), the impact of such vehicles on the collective dynamics of traffic flow becomes relevant. By means of simulation, we investigate the influence of variable percentages of ACC vehicles on traffic flow characteristics. For simulating the ACC vehicles, we propose a new car-following model that also serves as basis of an ACC implementation in real cars. The model is based on the Intelligent Driver Model [Treiber et al., Physical Review E 62, 1805 (2000)] and inherits its intuitive behavioural parameters: desired velocity, acceleration, comfortable deceleration, and desired minimum time headway. It eliminates, however, the sometimes unrealistic behaviour of the Intelligent Driver Model in cut-in situations with ensuing small gaps that regularly are caused by lane changes of other vehicles in dense or congested traffic. We simulate the influence of different ACC strategies on the maximum capacity before breakdown, and the (dynamic) bot...

  15. An original traffic additional emission model and numerical simulation on a signalized road

    Zhu, Wen-Xing; Zhang, Jing-Yu


    Based on VSP (Vehicle Specific Power) model traffic real emissions were theoretically classified into two parts: basic emission and additional emission. An original additional emission model was presented to calculate the vehicle's emission due to the signal control effects. Car-following model was developed and used to describe the traffic behavior including cruising, accelerating, decelerating and idling at a signalized intersection. Simulations were conducted under two situations: single intersection and two adjacent intersections with their respective control policy. Results are in good agreement with the theoretical analysis. It is also proved that additional emission model may be used to design the signal control policy in our modern traffic system to solve the serious environmental problems.

  16. Investigation of the Effect of Traffic Parameters on Road Hazard Using Classification Tree Model

    Md. Mahmud Hasan


    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for the identification of hazardous situations on the freeways. For this study, about 18 km long section of Eastern Freeway in Melbourne, Australia was selected as a test bed. Three categories of data i.e. traffic, weather and accident record data were used for the analysis and modelling. In developing the crash risk probability model, classification tree based model was developed in this study. In formulating the models, it was found that weather conditions did not have significant impact on accident occurrence so the classification tree was built using two traffic indices; traffic flow and vehicle speed only. The formulated classification tree is able to identify the possible hazard and non-hazard situations on freeway. The outcome of the study will aid the hazard mitigation strategies.

  17. Modeled traffic noise at the residence and colorectal cancer incidence: a cohort study.

    Roswall, Nina; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Ketzel, Matthias; Overvad, Kim; Halkjær, Jytte; Sørensen, Mette


    Traffic noise has become an increasing public health concern, associated with pervasive negative health effects, most likely through pathways of sleep disruption and stress. Both sleep disruption and stress have been associated with colorectal cancer. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between residential traffic noise and colorectal cancer incidence. Traffic noise was calculated for all residential addresses from 1987 to 2012 for 51,283 Danes in the Diet, Cancer and Health Cohort. We used Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the association between residential traffic noise 5 and 10 years before diagnosis, and overall colorectal cancer incidence, as well as subtypes (rectal, proximal, and distal colon). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated as crude and adjusted for potential confounders. During follow-up, 1,134 colorectal cancers developed (737 colon, 397 rectal). We found no association between residential road traffic noise and rectal cancer. We observed an association with distal colon cancer: HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.00-1.40, but not for proximal colon cancer: 0.99 (0.83-1.18), per 10 dB, 10 years preceding diagnosis. There was no association between railway noise and colorectal cancer, or any subtype. The present study suggested that long-term exposure to residential road traffic noise might increase the risk for colon cancer, especially distal colon cancer.

  18. Calibration and validation of models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of congested traffic patterns

    Treiber, Martin


    We propose a quantitative approach for calibrating and validating key features of traffic instabilities based on speed time series obtained from aggregated data of a series of neighboring stationary detectors. We apply the proposed criteria to historic traffic databases of several freeways in Germany containing about 400 occurrences of congestions thereby providing a reference for model calibration and quality assessment with respect to the spatiotemporal dynamics. First tests with microscopic and macroscopic models indicate that the criteria are both robust and discriminative, i.e., clearly distinguishes between models of higher and lower predictive power.

  19. Quantitative explanation of circuit experiments and real traffic using the optimal velocity model

    Nakayama, Akihiro; Kikuchi, Macoto; Shibata, Akihiro; Sugiyama, Yuki; Tadaki, Shin-ichi; Yukawa, Satoshi


    We have experimentally confirmed that the occurrence of a traffic jam is a dynamical phase transition (Tadaki et al 2013 New J. Phys. 15 103034, Sugiyama et al 2008 New J. Phys. 10 033001). In this study, we investigate whether the optimal velocity (OV) model can quantitatively explain the results of experiments. The occurrence and non-occurrence of jammed flow in our experiments agree with the predictions of the OV model. We also propose a scaling rule for the parameters of the model. Using this rule, we obtain critical density as a function of a single parameter. The obtained critical density is consistent with the observed values for highway traffic.

  20. Live streaming video for medical education: a laboratory model.

    Gandsas, Alejandro; McIntire, Katherine; Palli, Guillermo; Park, Adrian


    At the University of Kentucky (UK), we applied streaming video technology to develop a webcast model that will allow institutions to broadcast live and prerecorded surgeries, conferences, and courses in real time over networks (the Internet or an intranet). We successfully broadcast a prerecorded laparoscopic paraesophageal hernia repair to domestic and international clients by using desktop computers equipped with off-the-shelf, streaming-enabled software and standard hardware and operating systems. A web-based user interface made accessing the educational material as simple as a mouse click and allowed clients to participate in the broadcast event via an embedded e-mail/chat module. Three client computers (two connected to the Internet and a third connected to the UK intranet) requested and displayed the surgical film by means of seven common network connection configurations. Significantly, no difference in image resolution was detected with the use of a connection speed faster than 128 kilobytes per second (kbps). At this connection speed, an average bandwidth of 32.7 kbps was used, and although a 15-second delay was experienced from the time of data request to data display, the surgical film streamed continuously from beginning to end at a mean rate of 14.4 frames per second (fps). The clients easily identified all anatomic structures in full color motion, clearly followed all steps of the surgical procedure, and successfully asked questions and made comments by using the e-mail/chat module while viewing the surgery. With minimal financial investment, we have created an interactive virtual classroom with the potential to attract a global audience. Our webcast model represents a simple and practical method for institutions to supplement undergraduate and graduate surgical education and offer continuing medical education credits in a way that is convenient for clients (surgeons, students, residents, others). In the future, physicians may access streaming webcast

  1. The Road Traffic Analysis Based on an Urban Traffic Model of the Circular Working Field

    Ming-zhe Li


    Under a relatively realistic model,this paper theoretically analyzes the road traffc status inside an urban working eld,including its radial roads and circular ones.Concretely,the radial and the circular average traveling distances of a car commuter in a tiny ring with wide dx are rst derived,and then the necessary road area,road area rate distributions,the proportion between the radial and the circular roads to be needed are also calculated.The results presented here and the properties shown through the numerical analysis are considered to be signi cant at the very beginning stage of designing an urban city.

  2. Steady state speed distribution analysis for a combined cellular automaton traffic model

    Wang Jun-Feng; Chen Gui-Sheng; Liu Jin


    Cellular Automaton (CA) baaed traffic flow models have been extensively studied due to their effectiveness and simplicity in recent years. This paper develops a discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) analytical framework for a Nagel-Schreckenberg and Fukui-Ishibashi combined CA model (W2H traffic flow model) from microscopic point of view to capture the macroscopic steady state speed distributions. The inter-vehicle spacing Markov chain and the steady state speed Markov chain are proved to be irreducible and ergodie. The theoretical speed probability distributions depending on the traffic density and stochastic delay probability are in good accordance with numerical simulations. The derived fundamental diagram of the average speed from theoretical speed distributions is equivalent to the results in the previous work.

  3. A heterogeneous traffic flow model consisting of two types of vehicles with different sensitivities

    Li, Zhipeng; Xu, Xun; Xu, Shangzhi; Qian, Yeqing


    A heterogeneous car following model is constructed for traffic flow consisting of low- and high-sensitivity vehicles. The stability criterion of new model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. We derive the neutral stability diagram for the proposed model with five distinct regions. We conclude the effect of the percentage of low-sensitivity vehicle on the traffic stability in each region. In addition, we further consider a special case that the number of the low-sensitivity vehicles is equal to that of the high-sensitivity ones. We explore the dependence of traffic stability on the average value and the standard deviation of two sensitivities characterizing two vehicle types. The direct numerical simulation results verify the conclusion of theoretical analysis.

  4. Speed Spatial Distribution Models for Traffic Accident Section of Freeway Based on Computer Simulation

    Decai Li; Jiangwei Chu; Wenhui Zhang; Xiaojuan Wang; Guosheng Zhang


    Simulation models for accident section on freeway are built in microscopic traffic flow simulation environment. In these models involving 2⁃lane, 3⁃lane and 4⁃lane freeway, one detector is set every 10 m to measure section running speed. According to the simulation results, speed spatial distribution curves for traffic accident section on freeway are drawn which help to determine dangerous sections on upstream of accident section. Furthermore, the speed spatial distribution models are obtained for every speed distribution curve. The results provide theoretical basis for determination on temporal and spatial influence ranges of traffic accident and offer reference to formulation of speed limit scheme and other management measures.

  5. Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

    Artan, G.; Gadain, Hussein; Smith, Jody L.; Asante, Kwasi; Bandaragoda, C.J.; Verdin, J.P.


    Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007.

  6. Distributed Dynamic Traffic Modeling and Implementation Oriented Different Levels of Induced Travelers

    Yan Liu


    Full Text Available In order to respond to the variable state of traffic network in time, a distributed dynamic traffic assignment strategy is proposed which can improve the intelligent traffic management. The proposed dynamic assignment method is based on utility theory and is oriented to different levels of induced users. A distributed model based on the marginal utility is developed which combines the advantages of both decentralized paradigm and traveler preference, so as to provide efficient and robust dynamic traffic assignment solutions under uncertain network conditions. Then, the solution algorithm including subroute update and subroute calculation is proposed. To testify the effectiveness of the proposed model in optimizing traffic network operation and minimizing traveler’s cost on different induced levels, a sequence numerical experiment is conducted. In the experiment, there are two test environments: one is in different network load conditions and the other is in different deployment coverage of local agents. The numerical results show that the proposed model not only can improve the running efficiency of road network but also can significantly decrease the average travel time.

  7. Traffic Guidance Oriented Model of Traffic State Probability Forecast%面向诱导的交通状态概率预报技术

    窦慧丽; 王国华; 郭敏


    为了获取准确客观的交通流运行状态信息,满足交通诱导的需求,综合考虑城市道路中交通流演变的随机性和复杂性,以及实时交通状态判别本身具有的不确定性,通过分析交通状态和影响因素之间的映射关系,提出了一种交通状态概率预报的Logistic回归模型.该模型借助Logistic回归方法探讨交通状态和交通参数之间的函数关系,并对下一时段交通状态及其发生的概率进行预报.最后结合实际数据,进行了不同预报时长的分级交通状态的概率预报实验,独立样本检验结果表明,该模型预报准确率高,稳定性好.%In order to obtain the accurate and objective traffic state information to meet the demand of traffic guidance, and in view of the stochastic property and complexity of the traffic flow evolution on the urban road and the uncertainty of traffic state discrimination, an algorithm of Logistic regression for traffic state probability forecast is put forward based on the analysis of the mapping relationships between traffic state and traffic flow parameters. The proposed algorithm explores the function relationships of traffic state and the influencing factors by means of Logistic regression and thus gives the probability prediction of the traffic state of the next time period. Finally, according to the proposed algorithm, the grading traffic state probability forecast tests of different time periods is carried out using the field traffic flow data. The results of independent sample test indicate that the model has a finer precision and stability.

  8. Traffic model for advanced satellite designs and experiments for ISDN services

    Pepin, Gerard R.; Hager, E. Paul


    The data base structure and fields for categorizing and storing Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) user characteristics is outlined. This traffic model data base will be used to exercise models of the ISDN Advanced Communication Satellite to determine design parameters and performance for the NASA Satellite Communications Applications Research (SCAR) Program.

  9. Requirements for traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning: a critical assessment

    Bliemer, M.; Raadsen, M.; De Romph, E.; Smits, E.


    Transport planning models are used all over the world to assist in the decision making regarding investments in infrastructure and transport services. Traffic assignment is one of the key components of transport models, which relate travel demand to infrastructure supply, by simulating (future) rout

  10. Wave propagation of the traffic flow dynamic model based on wavefront expansion

    李莉; 施鹏飞


    This paper discusses propagation of perturbations along traffic flow modeled by a modified second-order macroscopic model through the wavefront expansion technique. The coefficients in this expansion satisfy a sequence of transport equations that can be solved analytically. One of these analytic solutions yields information about wavefront shock. Numerical simulations based on a Padé approximation of this expansion were done at the end of this paper and results showed that propagation of perturbations at traffic flow speed conforms to the theoretical analysis results.

  11. A Cellular Automaton Model for Heterogeneous and Incosistent Driver Behavior in Urban Traffic

    LIUMing-Zhe; ZHAO Shi-Bo; WANG Rui-Li


    In this paper a cellular automaton model is proposed to describe driver behavior at a single-lane urban roundabout. Driver behavior has been considered as heterogeneous and inconsistent. Most traffic papers in the literature just discussed heterogeneous driver behavior, to our best knowledge. Two truncated Caussian distributions are used to model heterogeneous and inconsistent driver behavior, respectively. The physical meanings of two truncated distributions are indicated. This method may help enhance a better understanding of driver behavior at roundabout traffic, and even possibly provide references for roundabout design and management.

  12. Advanced Models and Algorithms for Self-Similar IP Network Traffic Simulation and Performance Analysis

    Radev, Dimitar; Lokshina, Izabella


    The paper examines self-similar (or fractal) properties of real communication network traffic data over a wide range of time scales. These self-similar properties are very different from the properties of traditional models based on Poisson and Markov-modulated Poisson processes. Advanced fractal models of sequentional generators and fixed-length sequence generators, and efficient algorithms that are used to simulate self-similar behavior of IP network traffic data are developed and applied. Numerical examples are provided; and simulation results are obtained and analyzed.

  13. The CA model for traffic-flow at the grade roundabout crossing

    Chen Rui-Xiong; Bai Ke-Zhao; Liu Mu-Ren


    The cellular automaton model is suggested to describe the traffic-flow at the grade roundabout crossing. After the simulation with computer, the fundamental properties of this model have been revealed. Analysing this kind of road structure, this paper transforms the grade roundabout crossing with inner-roundabout-lane and outer-roundabout-lane into a configuration with many bottlenecks. Because of the self-organization, the traffic flow remains unblocked under a certain vehicle density. Some results of the simulation are close to the actual design parameter.

  14. A new traffic model with the consideration of coupling effect with two lanes

    Peng Guang-Han; Sun Di-Hua; He Heng-Pan


    This paper introduces a new two-lane high-order continuum model by embedding the two delay time scales con-tinuum traffic model presented by Xue (2003 Phys. Rev. E 68 066123) into the multi-lane model proposed by Daganzo (1997 Transpn. Res. B 31 83) with the consideration of the coupling effect between the vehicles of two lanes in instan-taneous traffic situation and lane-change effect. In the novel model, the coupling effect of two lanes and phenomena of lane change, which were not discussed in Daganzo's model and Xue's model, are taken into account. Numerical simulation shows that it is in accordance with real traffic flow. This obviously indicates that the new phenomenon and behaviour are analogous results as single lane presented by Xue, and the proposed model is more reasonable on two lanes. Furthermore, the generation rate between two lanes is also investigated. The results show that the formation and diffusion of traffic shock wave can be better simulated on two lanes.

  15. Web application and database modeling of traffic impact analysis using Google Maps

    Yulianto, Budi; Setiono


    Traffic impact analysis (TIA) is a traffic study that aims at identifying the impact of traffic generated by development or change in land use. In addition to identifying the traffic impact, TIA is also equipped with mitigation measurement to minimize the arising traffic impact. TIA has been increasingly important since it was defined in the act as one of the requirements in the proposal of Building Permit. The act encourages a number of TIA studies in various cities in Indonesia, including Surakarta. For that reason, it is necessary to study the development of TIA by adopting the concept Transportation Impact Control (TIC) in the implementation of the TIA standard document and multimodal modeling. It includes TIA's standardization for technical guidelines, database and inspection by providing TIA checklists, monitoring and evaluation. The research was undertaken by collecting the historical data of junctions, modeling of the data in the form of relational database, building a user interface for CRUD (Create, Read, Update and Delete) the TIA data in the form of web programming with Google Maps libraries. The result research is a system that provides information that helps the improvement and repairment of TIA documents that exist today which is more transparent, reliable and credible.

  16. Traffic flow model at fixed control signals with discrete service time distribution

    Lucky I. Igbinosun


    Full Text Available Most of the models of road traffic flow at fixed-cycle controlled intersection assume stationary distributions and provide steady state results. The assumption that a constant number of vehicles can leave the system during the green phase is unrealistic in real life situations. A discrete time queuing model was developed to describe the operation of traffic flow at a road intersection with fixed-cycle signalized control and to account for the randomness in the number of vehicles that can leave the system. The results show the expected queue size in the system when the traffic is light and for a busy period, respectively. For the light period, when the traffic intensity is less than one, it takes a shorter green cycle time for vehicles to clear up than during high traffic intensity (the road junction is saturated. Increasing the number of cars that can leave the junction at the turn of the green phase reduces the number of cycle times before the queue is cleared.

  17. Theoretical mean-variance relationship of IP network traffic based on ON/OFF model

    JIN Yi; ZHOU Gang; JIANG DongChen; YUAN Shuai; WANG LiLi; CAO JianTing


    Mean-variance relationship (MVR), nowadays agreed in power law form, is an important function. It Is currently used by traffic matrix estimation as a basic statistical assumption. Because all the existing papers obtain MVR only through empirical ways, they cannot provide theoretical support to power law MVR or the definition of its power exponent. Furthermore, because of the lack of theoretical model, all traffic matrix estimation methods based on MVR have not been theoretically supported yet. By observ-ing both our laboratory and campus network for more than one year, we find that such an empirical MVR is not sufficient to describe actual network traffic. In this paper, we derive a theoretical MVR from ON/OFF model. Then we prove that current empirical power law MVR is generally reasonable by the fact that it is an approximate form of theoretical MVR under specific precondition, which can theoretically support those traffic matrix estimation algorithms of using MVR. Through verifying our MVR by actual observation and public DECPKT traces, we verify that our theoretical MVR Is valid and more capable of describing actual network traffic than power law MVR.


    K. Chandramohan


    Full Text Available To increase the road safety and secure communication among the vehicles in the network environment, Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC is followed. Nowadays, research over DSRC is dramatically increased for enhancing the road safety applications. The main task of DSRC is to protect the vehicles by communicating the warning message regarding the vehicle changing conditions, traffic occurrence and dangers over the road in the network. So, it is necessary to maintain the accurate communication timely with high reliability by implementing the appropriate protocol. In the literature there are several methods which provided specifications defined in the physical layer and the Medium Access Control (MAC layer. In those methods, current IEEE 802.11p MAC is not able to provide predictable Quality of Service (QoS for high-priority safety services. Motivated by the fact that the existing work provided three levels of safety-related broadcast services, but did not focus on current traffic load conditions, in this study, we plan to present Traffic Controlled DSRC (TC-DSRC model to analyze and categorize the traffic patterns in the vehicular communication for safety related application. A new algorithm is presented to evaluate the process of traffic controlled DSRC model for secure communication in VANET. The dedicated short range communication broadcast of messages is sent to all the vehicles at a specific instance for defined radius on the traffic zone. Multiple traffic load conditions are categorically stated to handle the vehicular safety with quick response time. Integrating these two performance metrics (i.e., quick response time and security, by using the proposed algorithm, the traffic patterns are categorized for communication between vehicles to provide the safety measure. In addition, our proposed scheme with the categorization using traffic patterns improves the network performance by deriving a specific pattern. Compared with the recent

  19. Cellular Automaton Models of Highway Traffic Flow Considering Lane-Control and Speed-Control

    钱勇生; 李文俊; 曾俊伟; 王敏; 杜加伟; 广晓平


    As two kinds of management modes of highway tramc control, lane-control, and speed-control produce different effect under different conditions. In this paper, traffic flow cellular automaton models for four-lane highway system with two opposing directions under the above two modes are established considering car and truck mixed running. Through computer numerical simulating, the fundamental diagrams with different parameters are obtained, and after the analysis of density-flux diagrams, the variation discipline of flux with traffic density under different control models is gained. The results indicate that, compared with lane-control, utilization ratio of road can be further improved with speed-control when the truck number increases. The research result is of great significance for reasonable providing theoretical guidance for highway traffic control.

  20. Mechanisms for spatio-temporal pattern formation in highway traffic models.

    Wilson, R Eddie


    A key qualitative requirement for highway traffic models is the ability to replicate a type of traffic jam popularly referred to as a phantom jam, shock wave or stop-and-go wave. Despite over 50 years of modelling, the precise mechanisms for the generation and propagation of stop-and-go waves and the associated spatio-temporal patterns are in dispute. However, the increasing availability of empirical datasets, such as those collected from motorway incident detection and automatic signalling system (MIDAS) inductance loops in the UK or the next-generation simulation trajectory data (NGSIM) project in the USA, means that we can expect to resolve these questions definitively in the next few years. This paper will survey the essence of the competing explanations of highway traffic pattern formation and introduce and analyse a new mechanism, based on dynamical systems theory and bistability, which can help resolve the conflict.

  1. Modeling spatial patterns of traffic-related air pollutants in complex urban terrain.

    Zwack, Leonard M; Paciorek, Christopher J; Spengler, John D; Levy, Jonathan I


    The relationship between traffic emissions and mobile-source air pollutant concentrations is highly variable over space and time and therefore difficult to model accurately, especially in urban settings with complex terrain. Regression-based approaches using continuous real-time mobile measurements may be able to characterize spatiotemporal variability in traffic-related pollutant concentrations but require methods to incorporate temporally varying meteorology and source strength in a physically interpretable fashion. We developed a statistical model to assess the joint impact of both meteorology and traffic on measured concentrations of mobile-source air pollutants over space and time. In this study, traffic-related air pollutants were continuously measured in the Williamsburg neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York (USA), which is affected by traffic on a large bridge and major highway. One-minute average concentrations of ultrafine particulate matter (UFP), fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)], and particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were measured using a mobile-monitoring protocol. Regression modeling approaches to quantify the influence of meteorology, traffic volume, and proximity to major roadways on pollutant concentrations were used. These models incorporated techniques to capture spatial variability, long- and short-term temporal trends, and multiple sources. We observed spatial heterogeneity of both UFP and PM2.5 concentrations. A variety of statistical methods consistently found a 15-20% decrease in UFP concentrations within the first 100 m from each of the two major roadways. For PM2.5, temporal variability dominated spatial variability, but we observed a consistent linear decrease in concentrations from the roadways. The combination of mobile monitoring and regression analysis was able to quantify local source contributions relative to background while accounting for physically interpretable parameters. Our

  2. A hybrid model using logistic regression and wavelet transformation to detect traffic incidents

    Shaurya Agarwal


    Full Text Available This research paper investigates a hybrid model using logistic regression with a wavelet-based feature extraction for detecting traffic incidents. A logistic regression model is suitable when the outcome can take only a limited number of values. For traffic incident detection, the outcome is limited to only two values, the presence or absence of an incident. The logistic regression model used in this study is a generalized linear model (GLM with a binomial response and a logit link function. This paper presents a framework to use logistic regression and wavelet-based feature extraction for traffic incident detection. It investigates the effect of preprocessing data on the performance of incident detection models. Results of this study indicate that logistic regression along with wavelet based feature extraction can be used effectively for incident detection by balancing the incident detection rate and the false alarm rate according to need. Logistic regression on raw data resulted in a maximum detection rate of 95.4% at the cost of 14.5% false alarm rate. Whereas the hybrid model achieved a maximum detection rate of 98.78% at the expense of 6.5% false alarm rate. Results indicate that the proposed approach is practical and efficient; with future improvements in the proposed technique, it will make an effective tool for traffic incident detection.

  3. Modeling Mixed Bicycle Traffic Flow: A Comparative Study on the Cellular Automata Approach

    Dan Zhou


    Full Text Available Simulation, as a powerful tool for evaluating transportation systems, has been widely used in transportation planning, management, and operations. Most of the simulation models are focused on motorized vehicles, and the modeling of nonmotorized vehicles is ignored. The cellular automata (CA model is a very important simulation approach and is widely used for motorized vehicle traffic. The Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS CA model and the multivalue CA (M-CA model are two categories of CA model that have been used in previous studies on bicycle traffic flow. This paper improves on these two CA models and also compares their characteristics. It introduces a two-lane NS CA model and M-CA model for both regular bicycles (RBs and electric bicycles (EBs. In the research for this paper, many cases, featuring different values for the slowing down probability, lane-changing probability, and proportion of EBs, were simulated, while the fundamental diagrams and capacities of the proposed models were analyzed and compared between the two models. Field data were collected for the evaluation of the two models. The results show that the M-CA model exhibits more stable performance than the two-lane NS model and provides results that are closer to real bicycle traffic.

  4. Regional and local scale modeling of stream temperatures and spatio-temporal variation in thermal sensitivities.

    Hilderbrand, Robert H; Kashiwagi, Michael T; Prochaska, Anthony P


    Understanding variation in stream thermal regimes becomes increasingly important as the climate changes and aquatic biota approach their thermal limits. We used data from paired air and water temperature loggers to develop region-scale and stream-specific models of average daily water temperature and to explore thermal sensitivities, the slopes of air-water temperature regressions, of mostly forested streams across Maryland, USA. The region-scale stream temperature model explained nearly 90 % of the variation (root mean square error = 0.957 °C), with the mostly flat coastal plain streams having significantly higher thermal sensitivities than the steeper highlands streams with piedmont streams intermediate. Model R (2) for stream-specific models was positively related to a stream's thermal sensitivity. Both the regional and the stream-specific air-water temperature regression models benefited from including mean daily discharge from regional gaging stations, but the degree of improvement declined as a stream's thermal sensitivity increased. Although catchment size had no relationship to thermal sensitivity, steeper streams or those with greater amounts of forest in their upstream watershed were less thermally sensitive. The subset of streams with three or more summers of temperature data exhibited a wide range of annual variation in thermal sensitivity at a site, with the variation not attributable to discharge, precipitation patterns, or physical attributes of streams or their watersheds. Our findings are a useful starting point to better understand patterns in stream thermal regimes. However, a more spatially and temporally comprehensive monitoring network should increase understanding of stream temperature variation and its controls as climatic patterns change.

  5. A Novel Network Traffic Anomaly Detection Model Based on Superstatistics Theory

    Yue Yang


    Full Text Available With the development of network technology and growing enlargement of network size, the network structure is becoming more and more complicated. Mutual interactions of different network equipment, topology configurations, transmission protocols and cooperation and competition among the network users inevitably cause the network traffic flow which is controlled by several driving factors to appear non-stationary and complicated behavior. Because of its non-stationary property it can not easily use traditional way to analyze the complicated network traffic. A new detection method of non-stationary network traffic based on superstatistics theory is discussed in the paper. According to the superstatistics theory, the complex dynamic system may have a large fluctuation of intensive quantities on large time scales which cause the system to behave as non-stationary which is also the characteristic of network traffic. This new idea provides us a novel method to partition the non-stationary traffic time series into small stationary segments which can be modeled by discrete Generalized Pareto(GP distribution. Different segments follow GP distribution with different distribution parameters which are named slow parameters. We use this slow parameters of the segments as a key determinant factor of the system to describe the network characteristic and analyze the slow parameters with time series theory to detect network anomaly. The result of experiments indicates that this method can be effective.

  6. An extended macro traffic flow model accounting for the driver's bounded rationality and numerical tests

    Tang, Tie-Qiao; Huang, Hai-Jun; Shang, Hua-Yan


    In this paper, we propose a macro traffic flow model to explore the effects of the driver's bounded rationality on the evolutions of traffic waves (which include shock and rarefaction waves) and small perturbation, and on the fuel consumption and emissions (that include CO, HC and NOX) during the evolution process. The numerical results illustrate that considering the driver's bounded rationality can prominently smooth the wavefront of the traffic waves and improve the stability of traffic flow, which shows that the driver's bounded rationality has positive impacts on traffic flow; but considering the driver's bounded rationality reduces the fuel consumption and emissions only at the upstream of the rarefaction wave while enhances the fuel consumption and emissions under other situations, which shows that the driver's bounded rationality has positive impacts on the fuel consumption and emissions only at the upstream of the rarefaction wave, while negative effects on the fuel consumption and emissions under other situations. In addition, the numerical results show that the driver's bounded rationality has little prominent impact on the total fuel consumption, and emissions during the whole evolution of small perturbation.

  7. The Investigation of the Traffic Flow Behavior in Tollbooths Using Cellular Automaton Model

    Jetto, K.; Ez-Zahraouy, H.; Benyoussef, A.

    Tollbooths are used to collect tolls and to control traffic flow. However, the presence of these tollbooths will slow down traffic, especially in heavily traveled roads. As a consequence, drivers and goods will spend more time and fuel waiting in a long queue. Unfortunately, there are a few papers in the literature, which have been addressed the effect of tollbooths on the traffic flow; whereas in this paper is, the properties of traffic flow inside the tollbooths are investigated. The proposed cellular automaton traffic model, with open boundaries, is based on some changing lane rules, which are inspired on the situations inside the toll plaza. The vehicles enter the plaza with an injecting rate α, and they leave with an extracting rate β, which is inversely proportional to the time service Tw. The simulation results show the existence of three phases in the phase diagram (α, β), namely: the low density phase, the congested phase, and the jamming phase. Furthermore, it is found that the vehicles does not spend the same time Tm in the plaza, even if they have the same time service. This analysis states clearly that the existence of the congested phase and the fluctuation Tm are due to the non-zero values of the probability P of changing the lane. Such phenomena disappear when P = 0, i.e., the drivers move without changing their lane. In other words, the human behavior (spontaneous changing lanes) is responsible for the congestion observed in the tollbooth.

  8. Modeling Traffic Flow and Management at Un-signalized, Signalized and Roundabout Road Intersections

    R. Kakooza


    Full Text Available Traffic congestion continues to hinder economic and social development and also has a negative impact on the environment. A simple mathematical model is used to analyze the different types of road intersections in terms of their Performance in relation to managing traffic congestion and to establish the condition for stability of the road intersections after sufficiently longer periods of time (steady-state. In the analysis, single and double lane un-signalized, signalized and roundabout intersections are evaluated on the basis of their performance (expected number of vehicles and waiting time. Experimental scenarios are carefully designed to analyze the performance of the different types of intersections. It is noted that under light traffic, roundabout intersections perform better than un-signalized and signalized in terms of easing congestion. However under heavy traffic, signalized intersection perform better in terms of easing traffic congestion compared to un-signalized and roundabout intersections. It is further noted that for stability of a road intersection, the proportion of the time a road link stopping at an intersection is delayed should not exceed the utilization factor (the ratio of the arrival rate of vehicles to the product of number of service channels and service rate.

  9. An integrated model of traffic, geography and economy in the Internet

    Holme, Petter; Forrest, Stephanie


    Modeling Internet growth is important both for understanding the current network and to predict and improve its future. To date, Internet models have typically attempted to explain a subset of the following characteristics: network structure, traffic flow, geography, and economy. In this paper we present a discrete, agent-based model, that integrates all of them. We show that the model generates networks with topologies, dynamics, and (more speculatively) spatial distributions that are similar to the Internet.

  10. Analytical solutions of jam pattern formation on a ring for a class of optimal velocity traffic models

    Gaididei, Yuri Borisovich; Berkemer, Rainer; Caputo, Jean Guy


    A follow-the-leader model of traffic flow on a closed loop is considered in the framework of the extended optimal velocity (OV) model where the driver reacts to both the following and the preceding car. Periodic wave train solutions that describe the formation of traffic congestion patterns...

  11. New control strategy for the lattice hydrodynamic model of traffic flow

    Zhu, Chenqiang; Zhong, Shiquan; Li, Guangyu; Ma, Shoufeng


    The new delayed-feedback control strategy is applied for lattice hydrodynamic model of traffic flow by considering the control signal of the variation rate of the optimal velocity. The linear stability condition is derived in the frequency-domain with control theory. Then, different feedback gains under the periodic boundary scenery and on-ramp scenery are simulated. The periodic boundary scenery provides an initial small disturbance situation on the circle road, while the on-ramp scenery reproduces the disturbance triggered by the on-ramp on the open road. Both the theoretical analysis and simulations show that this new control signal has a positive effect to suppress traffic jams.

  12. Solitary Density Waves for Improved Traffic Flow Model with Variable Brake Distances

    朱文兴; 丁瑞玲


    Traffic flow model is improved by introducing variable brake distances with varying slopes. Stability of the traffic flow on a gradient is analyzed and the neutral stability condition is obtained. The KdV (Korteweg-de Vries) equation is derived the use of nonlinear analysis and soliton solution is obtained in the meta-stable region. Solitary density waves are reproduced in the numerical simulations. It is found that as uniform headway is less than the safety distance solitary wave exhibits upward form, otherwise it exhibits downward form. In general the numerical results are in good agreement with the analytical results.

  13. Prevision of vehicle headway effect on urban traffic with a new car-following model

    Peng, Guanghan; Lu, Weizhen; He, Hongdi; Gu, Zhenghua


    In this study, a new car-following model is established aiming to predict the variation of vehicle headways on urban road. The linear stability condition is derived corresponding to the prevision of headway in moving. The modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation is deduced through the nonlinear analysis. The kink-antikink soliton solution of the mKdV equation can interpret the urban traffic jams near the critical point under the prevision of vehicle headway. Moreover, it is clear that the prevision of headway effect did improve the stability of urban traffic flow since the traffic jams are alleviated efficiently by taking into account the prevision of headway term in numerical simulations, which are consistent with the theoretical analysis.

  14. GENERAL: A control method for congested traffic in the coupled map car-following model

    Shen, Fei-Ying; Ge, Hong-Xia; Zhang, Hui; Yu, Han-Mei; Lei, Li


    Based on the pioneer work of Konishi et al, a new control method is presented to suppress the traffic congestion in the coupled map (CM) car-following model under an open boundary. A control signal concluding the velocity differences of the two vehicles in front is put forward. The condition under which the traffic jam can be contained is analyzed. The results are compared with that presented by Konishi et al [Phys. Rev. 1999 E 60 4000-4007]. The simulation results show that the temporal behavior obtained by our method is better than that by the Konishi's et al. method, although both the methods could suppress the traffic jam. The simulation results are consistent with the theoretical analysis.

  15. A control method for congested traffic in the coupled map car-following model

    Shen Fei-Ying; Ge Hong-Xia; Zhang Hui; Yu Han-Mei; Lei Li


    Based on the pioneer work of Konishi et al, a new control method is presented to suppress the traffic congestion in the coupled map (CM) car-following model under an open boundary. A control signal concluding the velocity differences of the two vehicles in front is put forward. The condition under which the traffic jam can be contained is analyzed. The results are compared with that presented by Konishi et al [Phys. Rev. 1999 E 60 4000-4007]. The simulation results show that the temporal behavior obtained by our method is better than that by the Konishi's et al. method, although both the methods could suppress the traffic jam. The simulation results are consistent with the theoretical analysis.

  16. Traffic Flow Management Using Aggregate Flow Models and the Development of Disaggregation Methods

    Sun, Dengfeng; Sridhar, Banavar; Grabbe, Shon


    A linear time-varying aggregate traffic flow model can be used to develop Traffic Flow Management (tfm) strategies based on optimization algorithms. However, there are no methods available in the literature to translate these aggregate solutions into actions involving individual aircraft. This paper describes and implements a computationally efficient disaggregation algorithm, which converts an aggregate (flow-based) solution to a flight-specific control action. Numerical results generated by the optimization method and the disaggregation algorithm are presented and illustrated by applying them to generate TFM schedules for a typical day in the U.S. National Airspace System. The results show that the disaggregation algorithm generates control actions for individual flights while keeping the air traffic behavior very close to the optimal solution.

  17. Fine-Tuning ADAS Algorithm Parameters for Optimizing Traffic ...

    With the development of the Connected Vehicle technology that facilitates wirelessly communication among vehicles and road-side infrastructure, the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) can be adopted as an effective tool for accelerating traffic safety and mobility optimization at various highway facilities. To this end, the traffic management centers identify the optimal ADAS algorithm parameter set that enables the maximum improvement of the traffic safety and mobility performance, and broadcast the optimal parameter set wirelessly to individual ADAS-equipped vehicles. After adopting the optimal parameter set, the ADAS-equipped drivers become active agents in the traffic stream that work collectively and consistently to prevent traffic conflicts, lower the intensity of traffic disturbances, and suppress the development of traffic oscillations into heavy traffic jams. Successful implementation of this objective requires the analysis capability of capturing the impact of the ADAS on driving behaviors, and measuring traffic safety and mobility performance under the influence of the ADAS. To address this challenge, this research proposes a synthetic methodology that incorporates the ADAS-affected driving behavior modeling and state-of-the-art microscopic traffic flow modeling into a virtually simulated environment. Building on such an environment, the optimal ADAS algorithm parameter set is identified through an optimization programming framework to enable th

  18. Towards benchmarking an in-stream water quality model


    Full Text Available A method of model evaluation is presented which utilises a comparison with a benchmark model. The proposed benchmarking concept is one that can be applied to many hydrological models but, in this instance, is implemented in the context of an in-stream water quality model. The benchmark model is defined in such a way that it is easily implemented within the framework of the test model, i.e. the approach relies on two applications of the same model code rather than the application of two separate model codes. This is illustrated using two case studies from the UK, the Rivers Aire and Ouse, with the objective of simulating a water quality classification, general quality assessment (GQA, which is based on dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand and ammonium. Comparisons between the benchmark and test models are made based on GQA, as well as a step-wise assessment against the components required in its derivation. The benchmarking process yields a great deal of important information about the performance of the test model and raises issues about a priori definition of the assessment criteria.

  19. Modeling Speed Limit Offenders in Mauritius Using Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Models: From Financial Modeling to Traffic Modeling

    Indranarain Ramlall


    Full Text Available Many countries have adopted important policies in view of curbing the number of injuries/fatal road accidents with the most important being speed limit enforcement. In that respect, Mauritius has recently embarked on a strategy of using cameras in view of detecting violations to speed limits. However, the empirical literature on speed limit offenders is still very poor in terms of modeling. In essence, this paper constitutes the very first study that provides sound econometric modeling for speed limit offenders. Findings suggest that vanilla GARCH can be used to model the number of speed limit offenders. Above all, leverage effects are also noted, clearly showing the importance of the type of traffic flow of speed limit offenders which underpins the non-compliance/breach to speed limits. Furthermore, results show the presence of strong weekend effects as confirmed by the dummy variable. The research is expected to provide a momentum in the use of GARCH models for traffic modeling not only for Mauritius but also for other countries in the world.

  20. Value stream mapping in a computational simulation model

    Ricardo Becker Mendes de Oliveira


    Full Text Available The decision-making process has been extensively studied by researchers and executives. This paper aims to use the methodology of Value Stream Mapping (VSM in an integrated manner with a computer simulation model, in order to expand managers decision-making vision. The object of study is based on a production system that involves a process of automatic packaging of products, where it became necessary to implement changes in order to accommodate new products, so that the detection of bottlenecks and the visualization of impacts generated by future modifications are necessary. The simulation aims to support manager’s decision considering that the system involves several variables and their behaviors define the complexity of the process. Significant reduction in project costs by anticipating their behavior, together with the results of the Value Stream Mapping to identify activities that add value or not for the process were the main results. The validation of the simulation model will occur with the current map of the system and with the inclusion of Kaizen events so that waste in future maps are found in a practical and reliable way, which could support decision-makings.

  1. Directions for next generation microscopic traffic simulation modeling tool under the IntelliDrive environment

    Park, Byungkyu "Brian"; Arem, van Bart; Noort, van Martijn


    Microscopic traffic simulation models have been widely accepted in the evaluations of new treatments in the surface transportation system. These include new highway, lane usage (e.g., high occupancy vehicle lane or high occupancy toll lane), speed limits (e.g., variable speed limit, and uniform or d

  2. Two-dimensional cellular automaton model of traffic flow with open boundaries

    Tadaki, S I


    A two-dimensional cellular automaton model of traffic flow with open boundaries are investigated by computer simulations. The outflow of cars from the system and the average velocity are investigated. The time sequences of the outflow and average velocity have flicker noises in a jamming phase. The low density behavior are discussed with simple jam-free approximation.

  3. A novel macro model of traffic flow with the consideration of anticipation optimal velocity

    Peng, G. H.; Song, W.; Peng, Y. J.; Wang, S. H.


    In this paper, a novel macro model which can investigate wide moving jams is derived from car-following model by applying the relationship between the micro and macro variables with the consideration of anticipation optimal velocity on single lane. The theoretic analysis and numerical simulation show that the new macro model of traffic flow can correctly reproduce common evolution of shock, rarefaction wave and local cluster effect under small perturbation, which shows that the congested traffic patterns about wide moving jam propagation are in accordance with empirical results. Furthermore, the results uncover that the anticipation effect can smooth the front of the shock wave and the rarefaction wave, which means that anticipation effect hasten the diffusion process of congregate in the shock wave and dissolution in rarefaction wave. The key improvement of this new macro model over the previous ones lies in the fact that the anticipation traffic behaviors can improve the stability of traffic flow with the consideration of the proper anticipation effect.

  4. Network Traffic Generator Model for Fast Network-on-Chip Simulation


    For Systems-on-Chip (SoCs) development, a predominant part of the design time is the simulation time. Performance evaluation and design space exploration of such systems in bit- and cycle-true fashion is becoming prohibitive. We propose a traffic generation (TG) model that provides a fast...

  5. Modelling elemental carbon at regional, urban and traffic locations in The Netherlands

    Keuken, M. P.; Zandveld, P.; Jonkers, S.; Moerman, M.; Jedynska, A. D.; Verbeek, R.; Visschedijk, A.; Elshout van den, S.; Panteliadis, P.; Velders, G. J. M.


    The annual concentration of elemental carbon (EC) has been derived for The Netherlands in 2011. National emissions contribute 55% to the average EC concentration in the Netherlands. About 65% of the national contribution comes from emissions from road traffic and about 35% from other mobile sources (15%), households (14%), shipping (4%) and other combustion sources (2%). Conversion factors were established to compare different methods of EC measurement such as Black Smoke, Black Carbon and thermal analysis. The measured regional and urban background concentrations and variability were 0.5 ± 0.1 and 0.9 ± 0.1 μg EC per m3, respectively. The ratios between modelled and measured regional and urban background concentrations were 1.6 ± 0.5 and 1.8 ± 0.4, respectively. The modelled values are likely to be overestimated. The modelled and measured traffic contributions to EC concentrations near motorways and in street canyons were in the range 1.1-1.3 μg m-3 with total EC concentrations of 2.0 and 2.2 μg m-3, respectively. Our study showed that EC concentrations near intense traffic are increased with a factor 2-4 as compared to the urban and regional background, respectively. Consequently there is a similar variation in exposure and potential health effects in the population. More measurements of EC are required to improve modelling of EC concentrations in particular at urban background and near traffic locations.

  6. Analyzing the Impact of Trucks on Traffic Flow Based on an Improved Cellular Automaton Model

    Dewen Kong


    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyze the impact of trucks on traffic flow and propose an improved cellular automaton model, which considers both the performance difference between passenger cars and trucks and the behaviour change of passenger cars under the impact of trucks. A questionnaire survey has been conducted to find out whether the impact of trucks exists and how the behaviour of passenger car drivers changes under the impact of trucks. The survey results confirm that the impact of trucks exists and indicate that passenger car drivers will enlarge the space gap, decelerate, and change lanes in advance when they are affected. Simulation results show that traffic volume is still affected by percentages of trucks in the congestion phase in the proposed model compared with traditional heterogeneous cellular automaton models. Traffic volume and speed decrease with the impact of trucks in the congestion phase. The impact of trucks can increase traffic congestion as it increases. However, it has different influences on the speed variance of passenger cars in different occupancies. In the proposed model, the relative relationship of the space gap between car-following-truck and car-following-car is changeable at a certain value of occupancy, which is related to the impact of trucks.

  7. Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

    Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.


    Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

  8. Model based monitoring of urban traffic noise : A wireless sensor network design

    Wessels, P.W.; Basten, T.G.H.; Eerden, F.J.M. van der


    A good understanding of the acoustic environment due to traffic in urban areas is very important and can be obtained by long term model based monitoring within large areas. As a result one has a good basis for assessing the effect of mitigating measures and for communication and policy making. A mon

  9. Modeling mechanical restriction differences between car and heavy truck in two-lane cellular automata traffic flow model

    Li, Xin; Li, Xingang; Xiao, Yao; Jia, Bin


    Real traffic is heterogeneous with car and truck. Due to mechanical restrictions, the car and the truck have different limited deceleration capabilities, which are important factors in safety driving. This paper extends the single lane safety driving (SD) model with limited deceleration capability to two-lane SD model, in which car-truck heterogeneous traffic is considered. A car has a larger limited deceleration capability while a heavy truck has a smaller limited deceleration capability as a result of loaded goods. Then the safety driving conditions are different as the types of the following and the leading vehicles vary. In order to eliminate the well-known plug in heterogeneous two-lane traffic, it is assumed that heavy truck has active deceleration behavior when the heavy truck perceives the forming plug. The lane-changing decisions are also determined by the safety driving conditions. The fundamental diagram, spatiotemporal diagram, and lane-changing frequency were investigated to show the effect of mechanical restriction on heterogeneous traffic flow. It was shown that there would be still three traffic phases in heterogeneous traffic condition; the active deceleration of the heavy truck could well eliminate the plug; the lane-changing frequency was low in synchronized flow; the flow and velocity would decrease as the proportion of heavy truck grows or the limited deceleration capability of heavy truck drops; and the flow could be improved with lane control measures.

  10. Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

    Daniel J. Isaak; Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Seth J. Wenger; Jeffrey A. Falke; Christian E. Torgersen; Colin Sowder; E. Ashley Steel; Marie-Josee Fortin; Chris E. Jordan; Aaron S. Ruesch; Nicholas Som; Pascal. Monestiez


    Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for...

  11. Three-stage approach for dynamic traffic temporal-spatial model

    陆化普; 孙智源; 屈闻聪


    In order to describe the characteristics of dynamic traffic flow and improve the robustness of its multiple applications, a dynamic traffic temporal-spatial model (DTTS) is established. With consideration of the temporal correlation, spatial correlation and historical correlation, a basic DTTS model is built. And a three-stage approach is put forward for the simplification and calibration of the basic DTTS model. Through critical sections pre-selection and critical time pre-selection, the first stage reduces the variable number of the basic DTTS model. In the second stage, variable coefficient calibration is implemented based on basic model simplification and stepwise regression analysis. Aimed at dynamic noise estimation, the characteristics of noise are summarized and an extreme learning machine is presented in the third stage. A case study based on a real-world road network in Beijing, China, is carried out to test the efficiency and applicability of proposed DTTS model and the three-stage approach.

  12. Towards a streaming model for nested data parallelism

    Madsen, Frederik Meisner; Filinski, Andrzej


    -flattening execution strategy, comes at the price of potentially prohibitive space usage in the common case of computations with an excess of available parallelism, such as dense-matrix multiplication. We present a simple nested data-parallel functional language and associated cost semantics that retains NESL......'s intuitive work--depth model for time complexity, but also allows highly parallel computations to be expressed in a space-efficient way, in the sense that memory usage on a single (or a few) processors is of the same order as for a sequential formulation of the algorithm, and in general scales smoothly......-processable in a streaming fashion. This semantics is directly compatible with previously proposed piecewise execution models for nested data parallelism, but allows the expected space usage to be reasoned about directly at the source-language level. The language definition and implementation are still very much work...

  13. Uncertainty analysis in dissolved oxygen modeling in streams.

    Hamed, Maged M; El-Beshry, Manar Z


    Uncertainty analysis in surface water quality modeling is an important issue. This paper presents a method based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) to assess the exceedance probability of a target dissolved oxygen concentration in a stream, using a Streeter-Phelps prototype model. Basic uncertainty in the input parameters is considered by representing them as random variables with prescribed probability distributions. Results obtained from FORM analysis compared well with those of the Monte Carlo simulation method. The analysis also presents the stochastic sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome in the form of uncertainty importance factors, and shows how they change with changing simulation time. Furthermore, a parametric sensitivity analysis was conducted to show the effect of selection of different probability distribution functions for the three most important parameters on the design point, exceedance probability, and importance factors.

  14. Continuous traffic flow modeling of driver support systems in multiclass traffic with inter-vehicle communication and drivers in the loop

    Tampere, C.M.J.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Arem, B. van


    This paper presents a continuous traffic-flow model for the explorative analysis of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADASs). Such systems use technology (sensors and intervehicle communication) to support the task of the driver, who retains full control over the vehicle. Based on a review of diff

  15. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    Zhong-xiang, Feng; Shi-sheng, Lu; Wei-hua, Zhang; Nan-nan, Zhang


    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability. PMID:25610454

  16. Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

    Feng Zhong-xiang


    Full Text Available In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  17. A geographic approach to modelling human exposure to traffic air pollution using GIS

    Solvang Jensen, S.


    A new exposure model has been developed that is based on a physical, single media (air) and single source (traffic) micro environmental approach that estimates traffic related exposures geographically with the postal address as exposure indicator. The micro environments: residence, workplace and street (road user exposure) may be considered. The model estimates outdoor levels for selected ambient air pollutants (benzene, CO, NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3}). The influence of outdoor air pollution on indoor levels can be estimated using average (I/O-ratios. The model has a very high spatial resolution (the address), a high temporal resolution (one hour) and may be used to predict past, present and future exposures. The model may be used for impact assessment of control measures provided that the changes to the model inputs are obtained. The exposure model takes advantage of a standard Geographic Information System (GIS) (ArcView and Avenue) for generation of inputs, for visualisation of input and output, and uses available digital maps, national administrative registers and a local traffic database, and the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM). The exposure model presents a new approach to exposure determination by integration of digital maps, administrative registers, a street pollution model and GIS. New methods have been developed to generate the required input parameters for the OSPM model: to geocode buildings using cadastral maps and address points, to automatically generate street configuration data based on digital maps, the BBR and GIS; to predict the temporal variation in traffic and related parameters; and to provide hourly background levels for the OSPM model. (EG) 109 refs.

  18. A geographic approach to modelling human exposure to traffic air pollution using GIS. Separate appendix report

    Solvang Jensen, S.


    A new exposure model has been developed that is based on a physical, single media (air) and single source (traffic) micro environmental approach that estimates traffic related exposures geographically with the postal address as exposure indicator. The micro environments: residence, workplace and street (road user exposure) may be considered. The model estimates outdoor levels for selected ambient air pollutants (benzene, CO, NO{sub 2} and O{sub 3}). The influence of outdoor air pollution on indoor levels can be estimated using average (I/O-ratios. The model has a very high spatial resolution (the address), a high temporal resolution (one hour) and may be used to predict past, present and future exposures. The model may be used for impact assessment of control measures provided that the changes to the model inputs are obtained. The exposure model takes advantage of a standard Geographic Information System (GIS) (ArcView and Avenue) for generation of inputs, for visualisation of input and output, and uses available digital maps, national administrative registers and a local traffic database, and the Danish Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM). The exposure model presents a new approach to exposure determination by integration of digital maps, administrative registers, a street pollution model and GIS. New methods have been developed to generate the required input parameters for the OSPM model: to geocode buildings using cadastral maps and address points, to automatically generate street configuration data based on digital maps, the BBR and GIS; to predict the temporal variation in traffic and related parameters; and to provide hourly background levels for the OSPM model. (EG)

  19. On the micro-to-macro limit for first-order traffic flow models on networks

    Cristiani, Emiliano


    Connections between microscopic follow-the-leader and macroscopic fluid-dynamics traffic flow models are already well understood in the case of vehicles moving on a single road. Analogous connections in the case of road networks are instead lacking. This is probably due to the fact that macroscopic traffic models on networks are in general ill-posed, since the conservation of the mass is not sufficient alone to characterize a unique solution at junctions. This ambiguity makes more difficult to find the right limit of the microscopic model, which, in turn, can be defined in different ways near the junctions. In this paper we show that a natural extension of the first-order follow-the-leader model on networks corresponds, as the number of vehicles tends to infinity, to the LWR-based multi-path model introduced in [Bretti et al., Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. S, 7 (2014)] and [Briani and Cristiani, Netw. Heterog. Media, 9 (2014)].

  20. Properties of Traffic Risk Coefficient

    TANG Tie-Qiao; HUANG Hai-Jun; SHANG Hua-Yan; XUE Yu


    We use the model with the consideration of the traffic interruption probability (Physica A 387(2008)6845) to study the relationship between the traffic risk coefficient and the traffic interruption probability.The analytical and numerical results show that the traffic interruption probability will reduce the traffic risk coefficient and that the reduction is related to the density, which shows that this model can improve traffic security.

  1. Modeling of road traffic noise and estimated human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, USA.

    Seong, Jeong C; Park, Tae H; Ko, Joon H; Chang, Seo I; Kim, Minho; Holt, James B; Mehdi, Mohammed R


    Environmental noise is a major source of public complaints. Noise in the community causes physical and socio-economic effects and has been shown to be related to adverse health impacts. Noise, however, has not been actively researched in the United States compared with the European Union countries in recent years. In this research, we aimed at modeling road traffic noise and analyzing human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, United States. We modeled road traffic noise levels using the United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Traffic Noise Model implemented in SoundPLAN®. After analyzing noise levels with raster, vector and façade maps, we estimated human exposure to high noise levels. Accurate digital elevation models and building heights were derived from Light Detection And Ranging survey datasets and building footprint boundaries. Traffic datasets were collected from the Georgia Department of Transportation and the Atlanta Regional Commission. Noise level simulation was performed with 62 computers in a distributed computing environment. Finally, the noise-exposed population was calculated using geographic information system techniques. Results show that 48% of the total county population [N=870,166 residents] is potentially exposed to 55 dB(A) or higher noise levels during daytime. About 9% of the population is potentially exposed to 67 dB(A) or higher noises. At nighttime, 32% of the population is expected to be exposed to noise levels higher than 50 dB(A). This research shows that large-scale traffic noise estimation is possible with the help of various organizations. We believe that this research is a significant stepping stone for analyzing community health associated with noise exposures in the United States.

  2. A stochastic dynamic programming model for stream water quality management

    P P Mujumdar; Pavan Saxena


    This paper deals with development of a seasonal fraction-removal policy model for waste load allocation in streams addressing uncertainties due to randomness and fuzziness. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is developed to arrive at the steady-state seasonal fraction-removal policy. A fuzzy decision model (FDM) developed by us in an earlier study is used to compute the system performance measure required in the SDP model. The state of the system in a season is defined by streamflows at the headwaters during the season and the initial DO deficit at some pre-specified checkpoints. The random variation of streamflows is included in the SDP model through seasonal transitional probabilities. The decision vector consists of seasonal fraction-removal levels for the effluent dischargers. Uncertainty due to imprecision (fuzziness) associated with water quality goals is addressed using the concept of fuzzy decision. Responses of pollution control agencies to the resulting end-of-season DO deficit vector and that of dischargers to the fraction-removal levels are treated as fuzzy, and modelled with appropriate membership functions. Application of the model is illustrated with a case study of the Tungabhadra river in India.

  3. A hierarchical community occurrence model for North Carolina stream fish

    Midway, S.R.; Wagner, Tyler; Tracy, B.H.


    The southeastern USA is home to one of the richest—and most imperiled and threatened—freshwater fish assemblages in North America. For many of these rare and threatened species, conservation efforts are often limited by a lack of data. Drawing on a unique and extensive data set spanning over 20 years, we modeled occurrence probabilities of 126 stream fish species sampled throughout North Carolina, many of which occur more broadly in the southeastern USA. Specifically, we developed species-specific occurrence probabilities from hierarchical Bayesian multispecies models that were based on common land use and land cover covariates. We also used index of biotic integrity tolerance classifications as a second level in the model hierarchy; we identify this level as informative for our work, but it is flexible for future model applications. Based on the partial-pooling property of the models, we were able to generate occurrence probabilities for many imperiled and data-poor species in addition to highlighting a considerable amount of occurrence heterogeneity that supports species-specific investigations whenever possible. Our results provide critical species-level information on many threatened and imperiled species as well as information that may assist with re-evaluation of existing management strategies, such as the use of surrogate species. Finally, we highlight the use of a relatively simple hierarchical model that can easily be generalized for similar situations in which conventional models fail to provide reliable estimates for data-poor groups.

  4. Diagnostic analysis of the logistic model for pedestrian injury severity in traffic crashes.

    Sze, N N; Wong, S C


    This study attempts to evaluate the injury risk of pedestrian casualties in traffic crashes and to explore the factors that contribute to mortality and severe injury, using the comprehensive historical crash record that is maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. The injury, demographic, crash, environmental, geometric, and traffic characteristics of 73,746 pedestrian casualties that were involved in traffic crashes from 1991 to 2004 are considered. Binary logistic regression is used to determine the associations between the probability of fatality and severe injury and all contributory factors. A consideration of the influence of implicit attributes on the trend of pedestrian injury risk, temporal confounding, and interaction effects is progressively incorporated into the predictive model. To verify the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and logistic regression diagnostics are conducted. It is revealed that there is a decreasing trend in pedestrian injury risk, controlling for the influences of demographic, road environment, and other risk factors. In addition, the influences of pedestrian behavior, traffic congestion, and junction type on pedestrian injury risk are subject to temporal variation.

  5. Evolving Model for the Complex Traffic and Transportation Network Considering Self-Growth Situation

    Wei Zhang


    Full Text Available It has been approved that the scale-free feature exists in various complex networks, such as the internet, the cell or the biological networks. In order to analyze the influence of the self-growth phenomenon during the growth on the structure of traffic and transportation network, we formulated an evolving model. Based on the evolving model, we prove in mathematics that, even that the self-growth situation happened, the traffic and transportation network owns the scale-free feature due to that the node degree follows a power-law distribution. A real traffic and transportation network, China domestic airline network is tested to consolidate our conclusions. We find that the airline network has a node degree distribution equivalent to the power-law of which the estimated scaling parameter is about 3.0. Moreover the standard error of the estimated scaling parameter changes according to the self-growth probability. Our findings could provide useful information for determining the optimal structure or status of the traffic and transportation network.

  6. Discretized Streams: A Fault-Tolerant Model for Scalable Stream Processing


    a time range by typing: counts.slice(൝:00", ൝:05").topK(10) Discussions with developers who have written both of- fline ( Hadoop -based) and online...categories. The current application is implemented in two sys- tems: a custom-built distributed streaming system for live data, and a Hadoop /Hive...sequence of Hadoop import jobs into a form ready for ad-hoc queries. We ported the application to D-Streams by wrapping the map and reduce

  7. Implicit methods for equation-free analysis: convergence results and analysis of emergent waves in microscopic traffic models

    Marschler, Christian; Sieber, Jan; Berkemer, Rainer


    against the direction of traffic. Equation-free analysis enables us to investigate the behavior of the microscopic traffic model on a macroscopic level. The standard deviation of cars' headways is chosen as the macroscopic measure of the underlying dynamics such that traveling wave solutions correspond...

  8. A Dynamic Traffic Signal Timing Model and its Algorithm for Junction of Urban Road

    Cai, Yanguang; Cai, Hao


    -time and dynamic signal control of junction. To obtain the optimal solution of the model by hybrid chaotic quantum evolutionary algorithm, the model is converted to an easily solvable form. To simplify calculation, we give the expression of the partial derivative and change rate of the objective function...... such that the implementation of the algorithm only involves function assignments and arithmetic operations and thus avoids complex operations such as integral and differential. Simulation results show that the algorithm has less remain vehicles than Webster method, higher convergence rate and convergence speed than quantum......As an important part of Intelligent Transportation System, the scientific traffic signal timing of junction can improve the efficiency of urban transport. This paper presents a novel dynamic traffic signal timing model. According to the characteristics of the model, hybrid chaotic quantum...

  9. Spatiotemporal and random parameter panel data models of traffic crash fatalities in Vietnam.

    Truong, Long T; Kieu, Le-Minh; Vu, Tuan A


    This paper investigates factors associated with traffic crash fatalities in 63 provinces of Vietnam during the period from 2012 to 2014. Random effect negative binomial (RENB) and random parameter negative binomial (RPNB) panel data models are adopted to consider spatial heterogeneity across provinces. In addition, a spatiotemporal model with conditional autoregressive priors (ST-CAR) is utilised to account for spatiotemporal autocorrelation in the data. The statistical comparison indicates the ST-CAR model outperforms the RENB and RPNB models. Estimation results provide several significant findings. For example, traffic crash fatalities tend to be higher in provinces with greater numbers of level crossings. Passenger distance travelled and road lengths are also positively associated with fatalities. However, hospital densities are negatively associated with fatalities. The safety impact of the national highway 1A, the main transport corridor of the country, is also highlighted.


    Marília Gonçalves Dutra da Silva


    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This work aims to demonstrate the use of a mechanism to be applied in the development of the discrete-event simulation models that perform decision operations through the implementation of an artificial neural network. Actions that involve complex operations performed by a human agent in a process, for example, are often modeled in simplified form with the usual mechanisms of simulation software. Therefore, it was chosen a traffic system controlled by a traffic officer with a flow of vehicles and pedestrians to demonstrate the proposed solution. From a module built in simulation software itself, it was possible to connect the algorithm for intelligent decision to the simulation model. The results showed that the model elaborated responded as expected when it was submitted to actions, which required different decisions to maintain the operation of the system with changes in the flow of people and vehicles.

  11. Network Traffic Based on GARCH-M Model and Extreme Value Theory


    GARCH-M (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in the mean) model is used to analyse the volatility clustering phenomenon in mobile communication network traffic.Normal distribution, t distribution and generalized Pareto distribution assumptions are adopted respectively to simulate the random component in the model. The demonstration of the quantile of network traffic series indicates that common GARCH-M model can partially deal with the "fat tail"problem. However, the "fat tail" characteristic of the random component directly affects the accuracy of the calculation. Even t distribution is based on the assumption for all the data. On the other hand, extreme value theory, which only concentrates on the tail distribution, can provide more accurate result for high quantiles. The best result is obtained based on the generalized Pareto distribution assumption for the random component in the GARCH-M model.

  12. A Novel Measurement—based Neural Fuzzy Method for Traffic Modeling in Communication Networks



    A novel measurement-based neural fuzzy method is proposed for traffic modeling of an output buffer at a single N×N node in communication networks in this paper. The inputs of the system model are four of the first-order and second-order statistics of the measured traf-fic parameters and the output is packet loss rate. The firstorder Sugeno fuzzy model is adopted. Simulation stud-ies show that the absolute RMSE is 0.0021 and the relative RMSE is 1.45% between the output of the proposed model system and the actual statistics respectively. This methodis suitable for real-time processing because of its simplicity and quickness in calculation.

  13. Analysis of traffic accident size for Korean highway using structural equation models.

    Lee, Ju-Yeon; Chung, Jin-Hyuk; Son, Bongsoo


    Accident size can be expressed as the number of involved vehicles, the number of damaged vehicles, the number of deaths and/or the number of injured. Accident size is the one of the important indices to measure the level of safety of transportation facilities. Factors such as road geometric condition, driver characteristic and vehicle type may be related to traffic accident size. However, all these factors interact in complicate ways so that the interrelationships among the variables are not easily identified. A structural equation model is adopted to capture the complex relationships among variables because the model can handle complex relationships among endogenous and exogenous variables simultaneously and furthermore it can include latent variables in the model. In this study, we use 2649 accident data occurred on highways in Korea and estimate relationship among exogenous factors and traffic accident size. The model suggests that road factors, driver factors and environment factors are strongly related to the accident size.

  14. Cognitive process modelling of controllers in en route air traffic control.

    Inoue, Satoru; Furuta, Kazuo; Nakata, Keiichi; Kanno, Taro; Aoyama, Hisae; Brown, Mark


    In recent years, various efforts have been made in air traffic control (ATC) to maintain traffic safety and efficiency in the face of increasing air traffic demands. ATC is a complex process that depends to a large degree on human capabilities, and so understanding how controllers carry out their tasks is an important issue in the design and development of ATC systems. In particular, the human factor is considered to be a serious problem in ATC safety and has been identified as a causal factor in both major and minor incidents. There is, therefore, a need to analyse the mechanisms by which errors occur due to complex factors and to develop systems that can deal with these errors. From the cognitive process perspective, it is essential that system developers have an understanding of the more complex working processes that involve the cooperative work of multiple controllers. Distributed cognition is a methodological framework for analysing cognitive processes that span multiple actors mediated by technology. In this research, we attempt to analyse and model interactions that take place in en route ATC systems based on distributed cognition. We examine the functional problems in an ATC system from a human factors perspective, and conclude by identifying certain measures by which to address these problems. This research focuses on the analysis of air traffic controllers' tasks for en route ATC and modelling controllers' cognitive processes. This research focuses on an experimental study to gain a better understanding of controllers' cognitive processes in air traffic control. We conducted ethnographic observations and then analysed the data to develop a model of controllers' cognitive process. This analysis revealed that strategic routines are applicable to decision making.

  15. Modelling free surface aquifers to analyze the interaction between groundwater and sinuous streams

    Balbarini, Nicola; Boon, W. M.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup;

    Several mathematical methods for modelling free surface aquifers are available. Aquifer-stream interaction is an important application of these models, and are challenging to simulate because stream interaction is described by a highly variable head boundary, which can cause numerical instabilities...... and errors. In addition, when streams are sinuous, groundwater flow is truly 3-dimensional, with strong vertical flows and sharp changes in horizontal direction. Here 3 different approaches to simulating free surface aquifers are compared for simulating groundwater-stream interaction. The aim of the models...... was to investigate the effect of meander bends on the spatial and temporal variability of aquifer-stream interaction, and to develop a new 3D conceptual model of groundwater-stream interaction. Three mathematical methods were tested, representing the three main methods available for modeling 3D unconfined aquifers...

  16. An improved multi-value cellular automata model for heterogeneous bicycle traffic flow

    Jin, Sheng [College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 China (China); Qu, Xiaobo [Griffith School of Engineering, Griffith University, Gold Coast, 4222 Australia (Australia); Xu, Cheng [Department of Transportation Management Engineering, Zhejiang Police College, Hangzhou, 310053 China (China); College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun, 130022 China (China); Ma, Dongfang, E-mail: [Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 China (China); Wang, Dianhai [College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058 China (China)


    This letter develops an improved multi-value cellular automata model for heterogeneous bicycle traffic flow taking the higher maximum speed of electric bicycles into consideration. The update rules of both regular and electric bicycles are improved, with maximum speeds of two and three cells per second respectively. Numerical simulation results for deterministic and stochastic cases are obtained. The fundamental diagrams and multiple states effects under different model parameters are analyzed and discussed. Field observations were made to calibrate the slowdown probabilities. The results imply that the improved extended Burgers cellular automata (IEBCA) model is more consistent with the field observations than previous models and greatly enhances the realism of the bicycle traffic model. - Highlights: • We proposed an improved multi-value CA model with higher maximum speed. • Update rules are introduced for heterogeneous bicycle traffic with maximum speed 2 and 3 cells/s. • Simulation results of the proposed model are consistent with field bicycle data. • Slowdown probabilities of both regular and electric bicycles are calibrated.

  17. Betweenness centrality and its applications from modeling traffic flows to network community detection

    Ren, Yihui

    As real-world complex networks are heterogeneous structures, not all their components such as nodes, edges and subgraphs carry the same role or importance in the functions performed by the networks: some elements are more critical than others. Understanding the roles of the components of a network is crucial for understanding the behavior of the network as a whole. One the most basic function of networks is transport; transport of vehicles/people, information, materials, forces, etc., and these quantities are transported along edges between source and destination nodes. For this reason, network path-based importance measures, also called centralities, play a crucial role in the understanding of the transport functions of the network and the network's structural and dynamical behavior in general. In this thesis we study the notion of betweenness centrality, which measures the fraction of lowest-cost (or shortest) paths running through a network component, in particular through a node or an edge. High betweenness centrality nodes/edges are those that will be frequently used by the entities transported through the network and thus they play a key role in the overall transport properties of the network. In the first part of the thesis we present a first-principles based method for traffic prediction using a cost-based generalization of the radiation model (emission/absorbtion model) for human mobility, coupled with a cost-minimizing algorithm for efficient distribution of the mobility fluxes through the network. Using US census and highway traffic data, we show that traffic can efficiently and accurately be computed from a range-limited, network betweenness type calculation. The model based on travel time costs captures the log-normal distribution of the traffic and attains a high Pearson correlation coefficient (0.75) when compared with real traffic. We then focus on studying the extent of changes in traffic flows in the wake of a localized damage or alteration to the

  18. Traffic assignment models in large-scale applications

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær

    on individual behaviour in the model specification, (ii) proposing a method to use disaggregate Revealed Preference (RP) data to estimate utility functions and provide evidence on the value of congestion and the value of reliability, (iii) providing a method to account for individual mis...... of observations of actual behaviour to obtain estimates of the (monetary) value of different travel time components, thereby increasing the behavioural realism of largescale models. vii The generation of choice sets is a vital component in route choice models. This is, however, not a straight-forward task in real...... non-universal choice sets and (ii) flow distribution according to random utility maximisation theory. One model allows distinction between used and unused routes based on the distribution of the random error terms, while the other model allows this distinction by posing restrictions on the costs...

  19. One-Dimensional Traffic Model to Consider Priority of the Stochastic Deceleration

    XUE Yu


    A one-dimensional cellular automaton model of traffic flow is proposed to introduce the different delay probabilities in the steps of rules and the stochastic deceleration prior to the deterministic one when the anticipation velocity of vehicle is larger than the headway. The fundamental diagram shows the capacity of road more approaches to the observed data compared with that by the NaSch model. Moreover, the model is able to reproduce the complicated behavior of the real fraffic, such as the metastability state, the separation of different phases and the effect of hysteresis.It is concluded that the order arrangement of the stochastic deceleration and deterministic acceleration has indeed remarkable effect on traffic flow and the modification presented in this paper is reasonable and realistic.

  20. Traffic Modelling for Capacity Analysis of CDMA Networks using Gausian Approximation Method

    B. O. Omijeh


    Full Text Available This paper presents, modelling telephone traffic in cellular networks operating with Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA for the purpose of capacity analysis of such systems. With the current use of CDMA as the preferred multiple access technique due to its capacity advantage, there is the need for tools that will assist in ensuring quality of service and proper network dimensioning. This work produces a model useful for capacity analysis. Focusing on the reverse link, this is achieved by modelling telephone traffic using Gaussian assumptions to generate a CDMA blocking probability that is adapted into Erlang B formula for capacity calculations. A program written in MATLAB is used to realise the blocking probability formula with graphical outputs that is a tool for dimensioning. Results show that variations in network parameters affect CDMA capacity and that CDMA has a huge capacity advantage over TDMA and FDMA

  1. A Multiple Agent Model of Human Performance in Automated Air Traffic Control and Flight Management Operations

    Corker, Kevin; Pisanich, Gregory; Condon, Gregory W. (Technical Monitor)


    A predictive model of human operator performance (flight crew and air traffic control (ATC)) has been developed and applied in order to evaluate the impact of automation developments in flight management and air traffic control. The model is used to predict the performance of a two person flight crew and the ATC operators generating and responding to clearances aided by the Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS). The purpose of the modeling is to support evaluation and design of automated aids for flight management and airspace management and to predict required changes in procedure both air and ground in response to advancing automation in both domains. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  2. Urban Traffic Congestion Pricing Model with the Consideration of Carbon Emissions Cost

    Jian Wang


    Full Text Available As one of the most effective traffic demand management opinions, congestion pricing can reduce private car travel demand and the associated carbon dioxide emissions. First, we summarized the status quo of transport carbon dioxide emission charges and congestion pricing, and then, we analyzed the characteristics of urban transport carbon dioxide emissions. Then, we proposed a (pricing framework in which carbon emission costs would be considered as part of the generalized cost of travel. Based on this framework, this paper developed a bi-level mathematical model to optimize consumer surplus, using congestion and carbon emission charges as the control variables. A dissect search algorithm was used to solve the bi-level program model, and a numerical example was given to illustrate the methodology. This paper incorporates the emission pricing into the congestion pricing model, while considering two modes, and puts forward suitable proposals for the implementation of an urban traffic congestion pricing policy in China.

  3. A control method for congested traffic induced by bottlenecks in the coupled map car-following model

    Zhao, Xiaomei; Gao, Ziyou


    We present a simple control method to suppress the traffic congestion in the coupled map car-following model under open boundary, based on the pioneer work of Konishi et al. [Coupled map car-following model and its delayed-feedback control, Phys. Rev. E 60 (1999) 4000-4007]. Theoretically, it is proven that the congested traffic in the traffic system could be suppressed by using the method. Comparison between our method and the method of Konishi et al. is carried out. The simulation results show the temporal behavior obtained by our method is better than that by the method of Konishi et al., although both the methods can suppress the traffic jam. The simulation results demonstrate that the traffic system can move into a homogeneous phase and the flux has great increases by the introduction of the control signal. The simulation results are in good agreement with the theoretical analysis.

  4. Time series count data models: an empirical application to traffic accidents.

    Quddus, Mohammed A


    Count data are primarily categorised as cross-sectional, time series, and panel. Over the past decade, Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) models have been used widely to analyse cross-sectional and time series count data, and random effect and fixed effect Poisson and NB models have been used to analyse panel count data. However, recent literature suggests that although the underlying distributional assumptions of these models are appropriate for cross-sectional count data, they are not capable of taking into account the effect of serial correlation often found in pure time series count data. Real-valued time series models, such as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, introduced by Box and Jenkins have been used in many applications over the last few decades. However, when modelling non-negative integer-valued data such as traffic accidents at a junction over time, Box and Jenkins models may be inappropriate. This is mainly due to the normality assumption of errors in the ARIMA model. Over the last few years, a new class of time series models known as integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) Poisson models, has been studied by many authors. This class of models is particularly applicable to the analysis of time series count data as these models hold the properties of Poisson regression and able to deal with serial correlation, and therefore offers an alternative to the real-valued time series models. The primary objective of this paper is to introduce the class of INAR models for the time series analysis of traffic accidents in Great Britain. Different types of time series count data are considered: aggregated time series data where both the spatial and temporal units of observation are relatively large (e.g., Great Britain and years) and disaggregated time series data where both the spatial and temporal units are relatively small (e.g., congestion charging zone and months). The performance of the INAR models is compared with the class of Box and

  5. A Model of Federated Evidence Fusion for Real-time Urban Traffic State Estimation


    In order to make full use of heterogeneous multi-sensor data to serve urban intelligent transportation systems, a real-time urban traffic state fusion model was proposed, named federated evidence fusion model. The model improves conventional D-S evidence theory in temporal domain, such that it can satisfy the requirement of real-time processing and utilize traffic detection information more efficaciously. The model frame and computational procedures are given. In addition, a generalized reliability weight matrix of evidence is also presented to increase the accuracy of estimation. After that, a simulation test is presented to explain the advantage of the proposed method in comparison with conventional D-S evidence theory. Besides, the validity of the model is proven by the use of the data of loop detectors and GPS probe vehicles collected from an urban link in Shanghai. Results of the experiment show that the proposed approach can well embody and track traffic state at character level in real-time conditions.

  6. The Sensitivity of State Differential Game Vessel Traffic Model

    Lisowski Józef


    Full Text Available The paper presents the application of the theory of deterministic sensitivity control systems for sensitivity analysis implemented to game control systems of moving objects, such as ships, airplanes and cars. The sensitivity of parametric model of game ship control process in collision situations have been presented. First-order and k-th order sensitivity functions of parametric model of process control are described. The structure of the game ship control system in collision situations and the mathematical model of game control process in the form of state equations, are given. Characteristics of sensitivity functions of the game ship control process model on the basis of computer simulation in Matlab/Simulink software have been presented. In the end, have been given proposals regarding the use of sensitivity analysis to practical synthesis of computer-aided system navigator in potential collision situations.

  7. Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

    Reiss, Martin A.; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid M.; Nikolic, Ljubomir; Vennerstrom, Susanne; Schoengassner, Florian; Hofmeister, Stefan J.


    High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the ACE spacecraft for ...

  8. Exact solution of a delay difference equation modeling traffic flow and their ultra-discrete limit

    Matsuya, Keisuke; Kanai, Masahiro


    We consider a car-following model described by a delay difference equation and give its exact solutions that present propagation of a traffic jam. This model is a discrete-time version of the delayed optimal-velocity model; in the continuum limit, we recover the delay differential equation for this model and the exact solutions as well. We then work in the ultra-discrete limit, obtaining a delay cellular-automaton model, which successfully inherits the solutions. Also the dispersion relation ...

  9. A two-lane cellular automaton traffic flow model with the influence of driver, vehicle and road

    Zhao, Han-Tao; Nie, Cen; Li, Jing-Ru; Wei, Yu-Ao


    On the basis of one-lane comfortable driving model, this paper established a two-lane traffic cellular automata model, which improves the slow randomization effected by brake light. Considering the driver psychological characteristics and mixed traffic, we studied the lateral influence between vehicles on adjacent lanes. Through computer simulation, the space-time diagram and the fundamental figure under different conditions are obtained. The study found that aggressive driver makes a slight congestion in low-density traffic and improves the capacity of high-density traffic, when the density exceeds 20pcu/km the more aggressive drivers the greater the flow, when the density below 40pcu/km driver character makes an effect, the more cautious driver, the lower the flow. The ratio of big cars has the same effect as the ratio of aggressive drivers. Brake lights have the greatest impact on traffic flow and when the density exceeds 10pcu/km the traffic flow fluctuates. Under periodic boundary conditions, the disturbance of road length on traffic is minimal. The lateral influence only play a limited role in the medium-density conditions, and only affect the average speed of traffic at low density.

  10. On use of the alpha stable self-similar stochastic process to model aggregated VBR video traffic

    Huang Tianyun


    The alpha stable self-similar stochastic process has been proved an effective model for high variable data traffic. A deep insight into some special issues and considerations on use of the process to model aggregated VBR video traffic is made. Different methods to estimate stability parameter α and self-similar parameter H are compared. Processes to generate the linear fractional stable noise (LFSN) and the alpha stable random variables are provided. Model construction and the quantitative comparisons with fractional Brown motion (FBM) and real traffic are also examined. Open problems and future directions are also given with thoughtful discussions.

  11. An application to model traffic intensity of agricultural machinery at field scale

    Augustin, Katja; Kuhwald, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer


    Several soil-pressure-models deal with the impact of agricultural machines on soils. In many cases, these models were used for single spots and consider a static machine configuration. Therefore, a statement about the spatial distribution of soil compaction risk for entire working processes is limited. The aim of the study is the development of an application for the spatial modelling of traffic lanes from agricultural vehicles including wheel load, ground pressure and wheel passages at the field scale. The application is based on Open Source software, application and data formats, using python programming language. Minimum input parameters are GPS-positions, vehicles and tires (producer and model) and the tire inflation pressure. Five working processes were distinguished: soil tillage, manuring, plant protection, sowing and harvest. Currently, two different models (Diserens 2009, Rücknagel et al. 2015) were implemented to calculate the soil pressure. The application was tested at a study site in Lower Saxony, Germany. Since 2015, field traffic were recorded by RTK-GPS and used machine set ups were noted. Using these input information the traffic lanes, wheel load and soil pressure were calculated for all working processes. For instance, the maize harvest in 2016 with a crop chopper and one transport vehicle crossed about 55 % of the total field area. At some places the machines rolled over up to 46 times. Approximately 35 % of the total area was affected by wheel loads over 7 tons and soil pressures between 163 and 193 kPa. With the information about the spatial distribution of wheel passages, wheel load and soil pressure it is possible to identify hot spots of intensive field traffic. Additionally, the use of the application enables the analysis of soil compaction risk induced by agricultural machines for long- and short-term periods.

  12. Comparing stream-specific to generalized temperature models to guide salmonid management in a changing climate

    Andrew K. Carlson,; William W. Taylor,; Hartikainen, Kelsey M.; Dana M. Infante,; Beard, Douglas; Lynch, Abigail


    Global climate change is predicted to increase air and stream temperatures and alter thermal habitat suitability for growth and survival of coldwater fishes, including brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis), brown trout (Salmo trutta), and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). In a changing climate, accurate stream temperature modeling is increasingly important for sustainable salmonid management throughout the world. However, finite resource availability (e.g. funding, personnel) drives a tradeoff between thermal model accuracy and efficiency (i.e. cost-effective applicability at management-relevant spatial extents). Using different projected climate change scenarios, we compared the accuracy and efficiency of stream-specific and generalized (i.e. region-specific) temperature models for coldwater salmonids within and outside the State of Michigan, USA, a region with long-term stream temperature data and productive coldwater fisheries. Projected stream temperature warming between 2016 and 2056 ranged from 0.1 to 3.8 °C in groundwater-dominated streams and 0.2–6.8 °C in surface-runoff dominated systems in the State of Michigan. Despite their generally lower accuracy in predicting exact stream temperatures, generalized models accurately projected salmonid thermal habitat suitability in 82% of groundwater-dominated streams, including those with brook charr (80% accuracy), brown trout (89% accuracy), and rainbow trout (75% accuracy). In contrast, generalized models predicted thermal habitat suitability in runoff-dominated streams with much lower accuracy (54%). These results suggest that, amidst climate change and constraints in resource availability, generalized models are appropriate to forecast thermal conditions in groundwater-dominated streams within and outside Michigan and inform regional-level salmonid management strategies that are practical for coldwater fisheries managers, policy makers, and the public. We recommend fisheries professionals reserve resource

  13. Modeling Hyporheic Flux Along a Second-Order Semi-arid Stream: Red Canyon Creek, Wyoming

    Lautz, L. K.; Siegel, D. I.


    Models of near-stream hyporheic exchange flows are difficult to prepare because geomorphic stream features and adjacent subsurface characteristics both affect groundwater-surface water interaction. Inverse models of the results of in-stream tracer tests characterize net short time-scale hyporheic exchange along reaches, but not the actual physical processes driving the exchange. In contrast, numerical groundwater flow models simulate near-stream and hyporheic flow driven by hydraulic gradients from a physical process perspective. In this paper, we present a three-dimensional MODFLOW model of hyporheic exchange along a lower riparian reach of Red Canyon Creek, Wyoming. We calibrated the model results to hydraulic head measurements from > 30 monitoring wells, piezometers, in-stream mini-piezometers, and to changes in stream discharge measured by in-stream tracer tests. We also simulated hyporheic flow paths with MODPATH (a particle-tracking package), from which we obtained residence times of water parcels in the hyporheic zone. Hydraulic gradients around in-stream flow obstructions, such as beaver dams, and through meander bends, cause most near-stream hyporheic exchange (residence time dams. We also simulated stream solutes moving into the subsurface with MT3D, a solute transport package, and operationally defined the hyporheic zone as places where solute concentrations were equal to or greater than 10% of the stream water concentration after a 10-day model simulation. The results of this modeling agreed with MODPATH; solutes move both horizontally and vertically from streams into the subsurface behind debris dams, which create hydraulic steps in the subsurface and surface flow systems.

  14. Programs Model the Future of Air Traffic Management


    Through Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts with Ames Research Center, Intelligent Automation Inc., based in Rockville, Maryland, advanced specialized software the company had begun developing with U.S. Department of Defense funding. The agent-based infrastructure now allows NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System to explore ways of improving the utilization of the National Airspace System (NAS), providing flexible modeling of every part of the NAS down to individual planes, airports, control centers, and even weather. The software has been licensed to a number of aerospace and robotics customers, and has even been used to model the behavior of crowds.

  15. Effects of quenched randomness induced by car accidents on traffic flow in a cellular automata model

    Yang, Xian-Qing; Ma, Yu-Qiang; Zhao, Yue-Min


    In this paper we numerically study the impact of quenched disorder induced by car accidents on traffic flow in the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model. Car accidents occur when the necessary conditions proposed by [Boccara J. Phys. A 30, 3329 (1997)] are satisfied. Two realistic situations of cars involved in car accidents have been considered. Model A is presented to consider that the accident cars become temporarily stuck. Our studies exhibit the “inverse- λ form” or the metastable state for traffic flow in the fundamental diagram and wide-moving waves of jams in the space-time pattern. Model B is proposed to take into account that the “wrecked” cars stay there forever and the cars behind will pass through the sites occupied by the “wrecked” cars with a transmission rate. Four-stage transitions from a maximum flow through a sharp decrease phase and a density-independent phase to a high-density jamming phase for traffic flow have been observed. The density profiles and the effects of transmission rate and probability of the occurrence of car accidents in model B are also discussed.

  16. Examination of a Theoretical Model of Streaming Potential Coupling Coefficient

    Luong, D.T.; Sprik, R.


    Seismoelectric effects and streaming potentials play an important role in geophysical applications. The key parameter for those phenomena is the streaming potential coupling coefficient, which is, for example, dependent on the zeta potential of the interface of the porous rocks. Comparison of an

  17. Numerical Modeling of Cometary Meteoroid Streams Encountering Mars and Venus

    Christou, A. A.; Vaubaillon, J.


    We have simulated numerically the existence of meteoroid streams that encounter the orbits of Mars and Venus, potentially producing meteor showers at those planets. We find that 17 known comets can produce such showers, the intensity of which can be determined through observations. Six of these streams contain dense dust trails capable of producing meteor outbursts.

  18. A traffic model with an absorbing-state phase transition

    Iannini, M L L


    We consider a modified Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model in which drivers do not decelerate if their speed is smaller than the headway (number of empty sites to the car ahead). (In the original NS model, such a reduction in speed occurs with probability $p$, independent of the headway, as long as the current speed is greater than zero.) In the modified model the free-flow state (with all vehicles traveling at the maximum speed, $v_{max}$) is {\\it absorbing} for densities $\\rho$ smaller than a critical value $\\rho_c = 1/(v_{max} + 2)$. The phase diagram in the $\\rho - p$ plane is reentrant: for densities in the range $\\rho_{c,<} < \\rho < \\rho_c$, both small and large values of $p$ favor free flow, while for intermediate values, a nonzero fraction of vehicles have speeds $< v_{max}$. In addition to representing a more realistic description of driving behavior, this change leads to a better understanding of the phase transition in the original model. Our results suggest an unexpected connection between ...

  19. Modeling personal exposure to traffic related air pollutants

    Montagne, D.R.


    The first part of this thesis is about the VE3SPA project. Land use regression (LUR) models are often used to predict the outdoor air pollution at the home address of study participants, to study long-term effects of air pollution. While several studies have documented that PM2.5 mass measured at a

  20. A model to identify urban traffic congestion hotspots in complex networks

    Solé-Ribalta, Albert; Arenas, Alex


    The rapid growth of population in urban areas is jeopardizing the mobility and air quality worldwide. One of the most notable problems arising is that of traffic congestion. With the advent of technologies able to sense real-time data about cities, and its public distribution for analysis, we are in place to forecast scenarios valuable for improvement and control. Here, we propose an idealized model, based on the critical phenomena arising in complex networks, that allows to analytically predict congestion hotspots in urban environments. Results on real cities' road networks, considering, in some experiments, real-traffic data, show that the proposed model is capable of identifying susceptible junctions that might becomes hotspots if mobility demand increases.